Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

780
FXUS63 KOAX 261114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
514 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog have stuck around this morning across western
  Iowa, with additional chances for fog in Iowa tonight.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday with record or
  near-record high temperatures possible, before much colder
  temperatures arrive on Sunday and Monday.

- Light snow (30%) and breezy winds gusting to 30-40 mph (85%)
  are forecast for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features continued troughing over
the Pacific Coast that is lobbing shortwaves northeastward across
what is now a minor ridge across the central CONUS with falling
heights into the Great Lakes and points eastward. Nighttime RGB
imagery continues to show the erosion of low clouds and fog that
made for a dreary holiday, with some redevelopment of dense fog as
temperatures fall underneath clear skies amid humid conditions.
Short-term models indicate that the western edge of the stratus/fog
will slow it`s progression eastward, stopping just to the east of
the Nebraska/Iowa border, and sticking around that area into the
day. Some areas of northeast Nebraska may see that redevelopment
linger through around noon, though confidence is not high on how far
across northeast Nebraska any redevelopment could spread.
Regardless, it`ll be good for anyone heading north or east to give
yourself some extra time to visit relatives this morning, with
lingering areas of fog becoming scarce this afternoon. Highs are
forecast to hit the upper 40s in dreary areas while 50s and even 60s
are set closer to central Nebraska. Overnight, a lingering
boundary/frontal zone will aid in quieting winds and aiding in fog
formation, with much of western Iowa looking to be foggy heading
into Saturday.

By Saturday morning, we`ll be once again trying to work away the
overnight fog, with generally warmer temperatures forecast and
stronger winds entering western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska out of
the south. Models are quite split as far as how saturated the lowest
2 km of the atmosphere will be, with some form of cloud cover
limiting us from how warm we could get if given full sun. Those gust
speeds are expected to be in the 25-30 mph range, peaking around
noon before dropping off quickly by 6 PM as a new airmass shakes up
our recent warmth.

Sunday and Beyond:

By Sunday, mid/upper troughing that had been anchored along the
Pacific Coast is forecast to have broken free, transition across the
Interior West, and enter the Central/Northern Great Plains. As it
does so, with will undergo substantial deepening before ejecting
eastward early this upcoming work week. Strong winds, cold air, and
chances for minor amounts of snow/ice are the main sticking points
for us, while meaningful precipitation amounts miss us to the
east. This system will drag a cold front through the area early
SUnday, tanking temperatures and making the high temperature
closer to 12 AM. As the front passes through, steep lapse rates
will develop in the boundary layer, making flurries isolated
freezing drizzle possible across northeast Nebraska. Legitimate
snow chances develop between 6 AM and noon, with winds on the
increase across the area as strong northwesterly are ushered in
behind the cold front.

South of the snow chances, limited upper saturation will make ice
chances migrate from northeast Nebraska into southeast Nebraska and
Iowa. Any potential freezing drizzle that could fall would be an
instant pain as strong winds could make for efficient ice accretion,
even though liquid amounts would struggle to increase beyond 0.01".
The better shot for accumulation continues to be with snow across
northeast Nebraska, which would only reach 0.5", but be enough to
catch travelers off-guard as they head to family gatherings.
Putting a number to the winds, current model soundings suggest
that 30-40 mph will be the norm with areas of northeast Nebraska
and northwest Iowa seeing gusts as high as 45 mph between noon
and 5 PM. Those speeds will make the temperatures that will have
fallen into the 20s feel more like 5 to 10 degrees, with sub-
zero wind chills forecast overnight.

Monday`s temperatures will be rock bottom for the forecast period,
with morning lows in the 5-12 degree range improving into the 20s
alongside less gusty winds, before dipping back below 15 overnight.
The positive news is that we rebound into the 40s Tuesday with
subsequent highs through the week losing a degree or two a day.
This should make for an easier transition into the proper
winter temperatures than our recent wild swings from bitter cold
into warmth and back. As far as precipitation chances go, we`ll
find ourselves in northwesterly flow with ridging positioned
over the Interior West, with a weak clipper system late
Wednesday being our next chance to see anything, and even that
currently misses us to the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Widespread areas of fog/low clouds have generally pushed to the
east of KOMA, leaving KOFK and KLNK VFR through the TAF period.
KOMA on the other hand, is seeing patchy IFR to LIFR
visibilities that will linger into the first hour or two of the
TAF period, with conditions set to improve over the course of
the morning. Winds will shift from the northwest back to being
southwesterly, then southeasterly early tomorrow. Additional
chances for fog and low clouds will build across western Iowa
tonight, with MVFR conditions set for KOMA starting 06z, with
potential for lower conditions if guidance trends towards more
widespread fog.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     IAZ043-056-080-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

466
FXUS63 KGID 261217
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- What a difference a day will make! MUCH warmer (potentially
  daily record-setting) temperatures return today (highs well
  into 60s most places)...and still unusually-mild Saturday
  (but probably not as warm as today).

- Although we`re not talking brutally cold, a seasonably-strong
  cold front slices southward through our forecast area late Sat
  night-Sunday daytime, ushering in much colder temps, winds
  gusting 35-45 MPH and MAYBE a quick-hit of minimal, but wind-
  blown snow.

- A slightly colder than normal airmass hangs around through
  Monday before temperatures moderate back up a bit with highs
  mainly 40s especially Tues-Wed. At this time, Mon-Thurs
  appears dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 503 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE:
Not so much a change as it is a "pesky uncertainty" (and
possible weakness in our current forecast), but overall forecast
models (mainly ECMWF/GFS) are looking a LITTLE more
interesting/favorable for a quick-hit of wind-blown snow
accumulation during the day Sunday. Obviously still a few days
for this snow potential to trend upward/downward, but right now
accumulation appears to top out only around one-half inch (and
probably most favoring the northwest half of our forecast area
(CWA).

Should things trend about the same going forward, this
event "probably" wouldn`t be worthy of a formal Winter Weather
Advisory, but wind-blown snow (35-45 MPH gusts) and potential
for just enough snow to make roads slick means we still need to
keep an eye on this one to make sure it doesn`t trend worse.
Previous shift already introduced the likelihood for moderately-
strong winds Sunday to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID),
and the latest version now also touches on the minor snow
potential. At least for now though, our official forecast isn`t
very "scary"...with snow chances (PoPs) only running 20-30
percent.


-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
It took a while (actually well into the later evening in our far
eastern CWA), but thanks to the onset of steady westerly
(downslope) breezes, the gloomy widespread very low clouds/fog
that "ruined" Christmas weather for much of our CWA yesterday
has long-since vacated our area well to the east, leaving behind
a mix of clear skies and limited/thin high level cirrus. Breezes
in most spots currently are 5-10 MPH from the west, with
overnight low temps on track to eventually bottom out somewhere
in the 30s most places (although several sites could struggle
to drop below 40 if breezes don`t back down a few MPH).

In the "big picture" situation, we reside under broad quasi-
zonal (west-east) flow aloft, while at the surface our switch to
fog-clearing westerly breezes resulted from the passage of a
fairly weak low pressure system tracking from the Dakotas into
the Upper Midwest.


- TODAY:
What a different kind of day we have in store after yesterday`s
"grunge"! Although it won`t be pristinely sunny (at least
limited amounts of high level cirrus passing over (especially
this afternoon), the lack of low clouds/fog and
westerly/southwesterly breezes should actually allow us to much
more fully reach warming potential. About the only "catch" is
that mixing heights today will be relatively shallow, but even
so, have fairly high confidence that the vast majority of the
CWA at least gets into the low-mid 60s, and even some low 70s
especially in a few of our western-most Kansas counties. That
being said, did tone down our high temperature forecast SLIGHTLY
from previous forecast (especially far east-northeast counties),
but again, still 60s most places and we are forecasting Grand
Island/Hastings to SLIGHTLY break records for Dec. 26th highs
(see separate CLIMATE section below for details). Otherwise
today, wind speeds will average only 5-15 MPH (perhaps some
sporadic gusts around 20 MPH mainly in western/northwest
counties), with direction transitioning from westerly this
morning to more southwesterly this afternoon. One small possible
"catch" that will need monitored this morning is a small chance
that an axis of low clouds could try developing over northeast
NE between sunrise and late morning and Perhaps try catching our
extreme northeast CWA (Polk County area near Columbus)...but
right now this seems unlikely and satellite shows no signs of it
yet.

- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
This should be a quiet weather night with light-but-steady south
breezes (mainly 5-10 MPH) under a fair amount of passing high
clouds. Low temps were changed very little...aimed 32-37 most
areas. The only "catch" would be IF the far western fringes of a
batch of low clouds/possible fog that is looking increasingly-
likely to affect far eastern NE/northeast KS...ends up drifting
a bit farther west than anticipated and infiltrates our far
eastern counties along Highway 81. Right now this is not
considered likely, but is worthy watching as it could mean a
somewhat close call with fog potential far east.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
While it will almost assuredly be another day with well-above
normal temperatures for this time of year, there are a few
factors that also likely assure that readings will fall at least
roughly 5 degrees short of those today. For one thing, there
will be more high level cloud cover (skies solidly partly cloudy
to mostly cloudy at times). Secondly, mixing heights will again
be rather shallow with weak surface winds (mainly only 5-10 MPH)
from varying directions (starting westerly/southerly but perhaps
trending more northerly late in the day). If anything, highs
were nudged down very slightly, but still calling for upper
50s-low 60s most of the CWA, and some mid-upper 60s mainly in KS
zones.

- SATURDAY NIGHT (through sunrise Sunday):
Weather changes get underway as the leading edges of a large-
scale/positively-tilted upper trough moves in from the west.
Pre-midnight, our forecast is currently dry, but models such as
the HRRR suggest there could be some spotty rain showers
breaking out. Then post-midnight and into early Sunday AM, a
seasonably-strong cold front will pick up steam as it blasts
southward through our CWA, it`s arrival signified by 35-45 MPH
northerly gusts. Our far north-northwest CWA could see a touch
of snow try to develop toward sunrise, but it appears that most
light snow potential should hold off until the official Sunday
daytime period. Temperature-wise, a very mild Sat evening will
give way to steadily falling temperatures late in the night that
will only continue falling beyond sunrise Sunday in strong cold
air advection. However, at least through roughly sunrise,
official overnight low temps are projected to range from low-
mid 20s north/northwest...to low-mid 30s south-southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025


The lingering fog has been slow to retreat this afternoon,
especially for areas near and east of HWY-281. The continuation of
some pockets of fog with visibilities down to as low as 1/4 mile has
provoked the need for an additional Dense Fog Advisory this
afternoon/evening. The Dense Fog advisory remain in effect until 6PM
tonight for Nebraska counties along and east of HWY-281 and along
and south of I-80 including Merrick and Polk counties. The low-level
stratus continues to hang the surface, only gradually rising/mixing
out. As result, highs today have not been able to punch up much
further than the 40s to low 50s. Lows tonight will be expected to
settle in the 30s.

A weak shortwave trough aloft grazing the Central/Northern Plains
tonight will help clear out some of the clouds for tomorrow (at
least for the first half of the day). At the surface, a weak low
(~1004mb) is in the process of crossing through the region. This
feature will help guide steady (5-15 MPH) westerly to northwesterly
oriented winds tonight and for the first half of Friday as it
departs over to the east. The gentle westerly downsloping flow
Friday (adiabatic warming) paired with clearing skies will make for
the perfect ingredients needed to warm temperatures near and
potentially into record territory. Highs Friday are forecast to
reach the 60s to potentially low 70s across a few KS locations.
These are the warmest temperatures the area will likely see for a
while.

Another maturing surface low coming down from the Rockies Friday
night into Saturday will later be responsible for an end of the week
cold front that will be ready to shake things up for the start of
next week. Before then, the steady westerly winds on Friday will
turn southerly as the low approaches. Highs for Saturday (upper 50s
to upper 60s) will become the last of the consecutive days with
anomalously warm temperatures. The strong and powering cold front,
mention earlier, is now expected to barrel through during the
afternoon/evening hours on Saturday, flipping winds to the north along
behind it.

Conditions from Saturday to Sunday will change notably behind the
front. Temperatures, influenced by the rush of cold air, will drop
around 25-35 degrees. Highs for Sunday are forecast to range the mid
20s (far northern areas) to the low 40s (far southern areas). In
addition to the cold, breezy winds out of the north will blow
between 20-30MPH with gusts as high as 35-40+ MPH during the
afternoon hours. Lows sunday night will move towards the the mid
single digits to low teens (wind chills between -10 and 5 degrees).

Though not quite yet a complete guarantee (20-30% chance), flurries to
a few tenths of an inch of light snow accumulations could fall
Saturday night to Sunday morning in a couple of places behind the
front (mainly across northwestern lying areas). Confidence remains
more wishy-washy than definite at this point in time. Synoptically
speaking, a compressed and negatively tilted trough aloft looks to
have the potential to provide at least some synoptic-level assent
(relatively strong vorticity advection near the base of a PV
anomaly) to give enough support to churn out some flurries to light
snow showers. These snow showers would likely originate across the
Nebraska Panhandle and Northern Nebraska, tracking southeast through
the night/morning. The main question still to be answered is if such
showers will either maintain or miss the area altogether.

The forecast for next week beyond Sunday, continues to remain fairy
dry as the area will likely sit underneath the eastern side
(northwest flow region) of a slow moving longwave ridge. The
"biggest" change overall in the long-range forecast has been the
narrowing confidence for yet a colder day Monday (upper 20s to mid
30s). Temperatures also now appear to rebound a few degrees heading
into the middle of next week (mainly the 40s TUE/WED) with winds
oscillating from the west to north at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
This is a very high confidence VFR forecast, with only varying
degrees of passing high-level cirrus clouds. Winds will not be a
significant issue overall, but a formal low level wind shear
(LLWS) group has been introduced to early Saturday morning.

- Wind details:
- Surface winds:
Overall no major concerns. Sustained speeds through most of the
period will only average 5-10KT, but particularly the late
morning through mid-afternoon hours could see more consistent
"sneaky" gusts to around 15KT. Direction will start off today
westerly, then turn more southwesterly this afternoon and
finally southerly through tonight.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Have introduced LLWS for late in the period (06-12Z KEAR/08-12Z
KGRI), as southerly flow accelerates to around 40KT within the
lowest 1-2K ft. AGL, creating moderately-strong shear magnitude
of 30-35KT between the surface and this level.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL DEC 26-27:
We`re down to our final two days of possibly tying/breaking
daily records for warmth (both daytime highs and overnight
lows). Today (Dec. 26th) is clearly our best chance for reaching
record daytime highs, while both today and Saturday (Dec. 26-27)
could see record-warm lows.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values)
stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings
airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue
official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note
that * indicates that our latest forecast/observed value would
tie or break an existing daily record:


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES             | Latest Forecast
                                         or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 26: 64 in 2005                | Forecast: 66*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 60

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 26: 65 in 2005                | Forecast: 66*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 61

_________________________________________________________

- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast
                                         or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 26: 38 in 1931                | Observed: 36
December 27: 34 in 1905                | Forecast: 37*

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 26: 38 in 1959                | Forecast: 38*
December 27: 37 in 1957                | Forecast: 37*

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion