67°F
Updated:
6/23/2026
9:45:18pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
656 FXUS63 KOAX 240242 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 942 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms mainly over northeast Nebraska tonight. - The next substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives early in the day Thursday. The highest chance for storms (40-70%) looks to occur across central and southern Nebraska. - Very warm and humid conditions return this weekend with the Heat Index likely exceeding 100 degrees starting Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 942 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 A cold front is moving into northeast Nebraska this evening with a few showers struggling to develop along the front. Despite 1000-1500J/kg of SBCAPE, storms are struggling possibly due to confluence on the nose of the right exit region of the Jet Streak inhibiting weak forcing along the cold front. Could also be more neutral lapse rates from 850-700mb which weak forcing is struggling to make it through. Whatever the case, with the front weakening even further through the night, rain chances are dropping off quite a bit with little-to-no rain expected outside of a few isolated showers in northeast Nebraska. Looking at the broad upper-level pattern, we have weak ridging over the Desert Southwest with nearly zonal flow over the Northern Plains, only slightly oriented northwest to southeast. Flow stays fairly zonal through the end of the week. With this pattern, we watch closely for shortwaves bringing periodic chances for showers and storms. On Wednesday afternoon we`ll be watching storm development over western Nebraska, though the northwesterly component in the steering flow should keep these tracking southeast into Kansas Wednesday night. Meanwhile, we stay mostly dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thursday another shortwave will help to flatten the steering flow leading to more west-east storm movement, but guidance has tended to develop this next MCS to our south, mainly over north-central and northeast Kansas. This will keep a 20-40 percent chance of showers and storms though overnight Thursday into early Friday for a portion of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Friday looks mostly dry as ridging starts to build over Nebraska into western Iowa. A stronger trough moving into the PacNW helps to buckle the upper-level flow building a ridge over the Northern Plains. This ridge only grows going into the weekend as the trough over the PacNW deepens along the West Coast amplifying the downstream ridge. As this occurs, we`ll see increased warm-air and moisture advection into the region leading to starkly warmer temperatures with highs back in the mid-to-upper 80s on Saturday and low-to-mid 90s on Sunday. Humidity will become a concern too, with heat indices getting into the upper 90s to low 100s by the afternoon on Sunday. The hot, humid weather continues into early next week with rain chances staying north of our area through Monday. Our next chance of storms will be possible as a shortwave rides over the ridge Monday night into early Tuesday, though placement of this system is still somewhat up-in-the-air due to this being farther out in the forecast period. Next week is just looking darn hot with this initial ridge over the area early next week, only to be replaced by another ridge building up to our west later in the week. While we could still see periodic overnight MCS development help to bring chances for rainfall, weather during the day is looking to stay hot and humid. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 VFR conditions this evening with a cold front moving into northeast Nebraska. Winds are mostly out of the south or southwest ahead of this front, with a few showers developing along it as it moves south into northeast Nebraska. Chances for showers have decreased for areas south of KOFK along the frontal boundary, down to around 30% at KOMA and 15% at KLNK as the front moves through later tonight, so have removed them from these TAFs. Expect winds to shift to northwesterly then northerly overnight as the front moves through. Winds stay out of the north into the day on Wednesday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
311 FXUS63 KGID 240024 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 724 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool and semi-active weather pattern continues for another couple of days. - The next decent chance for rain looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but severe weather threat appears to be pretty marginal. - Return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week. - Broadly speaking, may see another uptick in severe weather potential in the Saturday night to Tuesday time frame as an upper trough ejects from the Rockies into the central/northern Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 A shortwave disturbance moved through the area this morning and early afternoon and brought a broad swath of light to moderate rain showers. Fortunately, instability was lacking with this system and kept severe weather potential at bay. Subsidence behind this wave has allowed for some clearing skies and temperatures to rise into the 70s. This clearing may allow for a few showers or weak storms to pop up through early evening, but lack of stronger instability and lingering effects of the subsidence should keep most locations dry. Next few days look to feature the same general mid to upper level pattern in which an upper low spins over the northern Plains into Upper MS Valley and ridging builds over the SW and W Coast. This should lead to zonal to NW flow for the central Plains. Modest and moist upslope flow should allow for daily thunderstorm development along the High Plains each afternoon, which will then roll E/SE during the evening and overnight hours with the mean flow and along a stout instability gradient. Appears the primary instability axis will remain mostly W/SW/S of the area each of the next few days, which should keep our severe threat fairly limited. Appears the best potential for scattered to widespread rain and embedded storms will be with a disturbance Wed night into Thu AM. It`s late June and there`s at least SOME elevated instability and shear, so the various Marginal Risks on the SPC outlooks make sense...but again, not expecting anything real organized or widespread for our local forecast area. Upper pattern will undergo some changes late in the week, and especially this weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridging slides east in response to a new trough developing along the West Coast. So after several days of seasonably cool highs in the 70s to lower 80s, should see a significant jump in temps by Friday and esp. over the weekend. In fact, latest NBM gives widespread mid 80s to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday - which will feel quite steamy given seasonably high dew points currently forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F. The relatively moist ground from recent rainfall and evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn will probably support even higher values in the low to mid 70s for areas E of Hwy 281 towards the Hwy 81 corridor. Not sure this uptick in heat and humidity will necessarily rise to advisory levels (heat indices of 105+), and there will be some southerly breezes to help bring SOME relief...but it`s a summer weekend, so keep in mind for those outdoor activities. Generally speaking, the upper pattern may become more supportive for severe thunderstorms at some point in the Saturday night (low level jet/warm air advection) to Tuesday time frame as the western trough migrates into the Rockies and eventually the central and northern Plains. This low will likely force at least a weak to moderate cold front into the region Sunday night or Monday...which could then linger into Tuesday per recent deterministic and ensemble trends. This general evolution should support SOME overlap in seasonably strong deep layer shear associated with ejecting mid/upper jet streak and large reservoir of strong to extreme instability, somewhere in the region during this time frame. Now, does this overlap occur locally or perhaps further N...and what exactly will be the timing of the upper trough and surface fronts...these details still need to be worked out and are critical to pinning down sensible weather details this time of year. Machine learning guidance supports the idea of 2-3 day window of increased severe weather potential, but remains quite broad in it`s footprint, and muted on any higher end probabilities. Again, something to monitor as we approach the busy summer weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 724 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: While VFR ceiling/visibility will surely prevail the majority of the period, particularly the "middle 12 hours" (06-18Z) are frought with quite a bit of uncertainty as the development of low stratus and/or at least light fog could easily result in sub-VFR conditions on at least an intermittent basis. As for rain/thunderstorm potential, it is a similar situation...as while it will surely remain dry/thunderstorm-free the vast majority of the time...that same "middle 12" (06-18Z) time frame carries at least a small chance (generally 10-20%) for a passing shower/weak thunderstorm. By far the most straightforward aviation element of the period is winds, as although direction will be a bit difficult to pin down given light speeds and a weak pressure gradient...the key phrase is "light speeds"...with speeds likely at-or-below 7KT the vast majority of the period. Taking all of the ceiling/visibility uncertainties discussed in the previous paragraph into consideration, and leaning on "older school" numerical guidance (such as LAV/LAMP) as much as anything given that most "higher res" model data seems to be struggling with their current depiction of low-level cloud cover...latest TAFs are geared the following direction: - Ceiling: Have maintained at least scattered MVFR to low-VFR groups throughout the period, but only have enough confidence to go prevailing MVFR 11-15Z at this time. That being said, should any fog actually develop, ceiling could quickly deteriorate to at least IFR. - Visibility: While at least intermittent pockets of at least light fog certainly cannot be ruled out overnight through a few hours post-sunrise Thursday, majority of models/guidance seem to support the idea that enough higher-level cloud cover will exist to "mute" this potential. As a result, have opted to only "hint" at fog potential with low-end VFR "6SM BR" focused 06-15Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Navigation
