Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

648
FXUS63 KOAX 031037
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
537 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances Monday through
  Wednesday. The highest chance (30-60%) is across southeast
  Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe
  thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across portions of
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- There is a chance of frost Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
  especially across northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The overall weather pattern remains relatively quiet through the
remainder of this weekend into next week. Persistent longwave
troughing over the eastern half of the United States keeps the
northern Great Plains under predominately northwesterly upper-
level winds. With this regime, limited rainfall can be expected
with temperatures swinging between above and below normal
between frontal passages. Let`s break this down into more
detail.

A weak cold front pushes through the region tonight, though this
does little to our sensible weather. Sunday sees temperatures
actually increase into the 70s despite a north wind. Heading
into Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of
Canada into the region. Ahead of this, temperatures climb into
the lower 80s as moisture begins to increase. This shortwave
trough will act to push another cold front through the region.
Sufficient moisture and instability is anticipated along and
ahead of the front for shower and thunderstorm development.
There is a low (10-30%) chance of rain for most of the region
with the highest (30-60%) chance focused over southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm
may be possible and a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been
highlighted in the convective outlook as a result. Large hail
and damaging winds would be the main concern should any severe
thunderstorms develop.

Cooler temperatures filter in behind the front heading into
Tuesday and Wednesday. Below normal temperatures in the upper
50s to lower 60s are likely as a result. Low (10-30%) rain
chances may linger as a separate trough over the Four Corners
lifts towards the region through Wednesday. The cooler
temperatures translate to cold mornings with at least a chance
of frost Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across
northeast Nebraska. Subtle ridging under the continued
northwesterly upper-level winds is anticipated to close the
week. This will allow for another warming trend through the 60s
and into the 70s with more quiet and dry weather Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

LLWS is coming to an end this morning as winds at FL015 have
begun to slow and come into line with surface winds. A boundary
pushing through the area will turn west-southwesterly winds
northwesterly. This has already happened at KOFK. Winds will
become north-norhtwesterly at 5-10 knots by 15Z at KOMA/KLNK.
The winds will become light and southerly after sunset.

Sunny skies will become mostly cloudy by mid-day with clouds
hanging mostly between FL150 and FL250.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

124
FXUS63 KGID 031123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 70s to around 80.

- Scattered storms possible along a cold front Monday evening with
more widespread rain chances Monday night.

- Scattered off and on showers expected throughout the day Tuesday
and Wednesday, most likely along and south of the NE/KS border.

- Cooler temperatures on Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the 50s,
but temperatures climb back above normal by the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 40s and 50s
with partly cloudy skies. Aloft the area is under northwesterly
flow, with an embedded disturbance moving through the Plains. This
disturbance will push a cold front through the area this morning as
winds shift to the north behind the front. Another pleasant day is
expected across the area with highs in the 70s to around 80 in north
central Kansas. A few weak showers that develop over western
Nebraska may move into northwestern portions of the area during the
late evening hours. Have kept this PoP limited to sprinkles given
large model spread on if it happens and where it impacts. Regardless
these showers will steadily weaken after sunset as stability
increases.

Southerly flow builds over the area Monday morning ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Highs climb into the 70s and 80s
during the day, warmest across north central Kansas. A cold front
pushes through the area Monday afternoon, with the front reaching
the NE-KS border by the mid-evening hours (6-8pm). Models keep the
front largely dry through the afternoon, but quickly develop storms
during the evening hours. There is some uncertainty on how
widespread thunderstorm development will be along the front, however
at least scattered storms appear possible, most likely along/east of
Highway 281. Moisture return on Monday looks to be limited, keeping
instability fairly low across the area (under 1000 J/Kg). The
limited instability keeps the best chances for severe storms
east/southeast of the area, though a few stronger storms capable of
producing small hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out. More
widespread showers/storms (40-75% PoPs) build over the area Monday
night behind the front.

Scattered to widespread showers and storms continue Tuesday and
Wednesday as troughing deepens and merges with an upper level low
over the southwest. This will result in off and on showers
throughout this time period (30-70% PoPs), most likely/frequent for
areas along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. Steady cold air
advection and widespread cloud coverage keeps highs in the 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday and makes for a cold rain. Overall,
accumulations look to range from 0.10" or less (north) to around
0.5" (south). Temperatures climb back above normal by the end of
next week as northwesterly flow rebuilds over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently through Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the Central Plains
this afternoon...with the entire day having sunny skies.
Looking in the upper levels, solidly northwesterly flow remains
in place across the region...set up between deep troughing
working its way toward the East Coast and high pressure/ridging
extending northward from the Desert SW. At the surface, high
pressure has been gradually sinking south with time today. This
brought light/variable winds to start the day...which have
turned more southwesterly with time. Speeds across southern
areas remain light as they sit closer to that sfc high...the
stronger speeds are across northern areas, with gusts at times
around 20-25 MPH. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with
obs at 3PM sitting in the mid 60s to near 70.

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast through
this short term period through the end of the weekend...which
remains largely dry. Models are in good agreement showing
continued generally northwesterly flow across the
region...though becoming less amplified with time as another
system is working its way south into central Canada/near the US
border. The only mention of precip during this time frame is
Sunday evening-night...with models showing the potential for a
weak shortwave sparking off activity near the western NE/SD
border late in the day. Question is its evolution and whether it
is maintained long enough to impact our forecast area...some
models say it wanes before then. Not a ton of confidence in
those chances at this point.

After seeing plenty of sun today, there is good agreement with
increased mid-upper level cloud cover as we get into
Sunday...not totally overcast, but looking to be generally
partly cloudy, mostly cloudy at times in spots. As far as winds
go, late tonight-Sun AM, a weak upper level disturbance crossing
to our NE will push a surface frontal boundary south through
the region...ushering in a switch to more northerly winds. Not
expecting a notable increase in speeds...it`s not a strong
frontal boundary...and through the day on Sunday, winds lighten
a bit, turning more easterly with time. Expecting a slight bump
up in temps, with more of the area in the low-mid 70s (vs the
upper 60s-low 70s by the end of today).

New work week...

The next best chances for precipitation look to arrive late in
the day Monday into the evening-overnight hours. Though the
forecast has chances early-mid afternoon...there are at least a
handful of models showing that for most, that 18-21Z period is
likely dry. These precipitation chances are being driven by a
southward push of upper level energy out of central Canada and
the Nrn Plains. Activity late in the day is expected to develop
in proximity to the accompanying surface cold front...with some
lingering uncertainties/differences between models with just
exactly where the front ends up. Some models show by 00Z the
boundary is near/south of the NE-KS state line...a few are a
touch slower/further north. Though winds turn back to the south
early in the day Monday...not expecting a notable push of better
moisture north before that front arrives...current forecast
afternoon dewpoints are only in the 30s to mid 40s (better
chance for 50s+ dewpoints currently over eastern KS and far SE
Neb.). Expecting another bump up in highs for Monday, reaching
into the mid 70s-low 80s, but models have better instability
focusing just off to our SE...thus SPC has kept the Day 3
Marginal Risk area over that same area. We`ll see how things
trend in upcoming model runs.

Between the upper level system near the US/Can border and
another shifting east from the West Coast, eventually becoming
more phased in with that central CONUS troughing...additional
disturbances bring additional precipitation chances through mid-
week. Currently, the best chances are focused mainly across the
southern half of the forecast area...but have plenty of details
to iron out in the coming days. This Tuesday-Wednesday period is
also the coolest of this 7-day period...with highs both days
mainly in the 50s.

The latter portion of the new week dries back out...with current
forecast highs back in the 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Winds shift to the
north over the next couple of hours (12-14z). Sustained winds
around 10kts are expected from the mid morning-early afternoon
hours, but become lighter during the mid afternoon hours. Winds
become light and variable around sunset. SCT-BKN mid-high level
clouds are possible throughout TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion