Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

136
FXUS63 KOAX 281131
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two rounds of impactful weather are expected over the holiday
  weekend. The first will arrive later today, bringing a chance
  for some snow to the region, particularly for areas along and
  north of a line from Omaha to Atlantic.

- A second round of wintry weather will occur tonight through
  Saturday. This will include the potential for some rain or
  freezing rain, some icing, and several inches of snow. Winter
  Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning headlines are in
  place for today and tomorrow.

- Cold settles in for the rest of the weekend and the start of
  next week. Temperatures will warm up Tuesday, persisting
  through the end of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 457 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The forecast period begins with northwest flow over the Great Plains
and a developing surface low over Wyoming and Montana. Later this
morning, the low will slide south into western Nebraska,
northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas. Surface high
pressure over Texas and Louisiana will result in return flow
bringing moisture into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa through the
day. Temperatures are going to be on the cold side, with highs in
the 30s for areas along and south of Hwy 92, and struggling into the
20s for areas north. There will be increasing chances for a few snow
showers for areas along and north of I-80 this morning into the
afternoon hours. Models are showing a band of frontogenesis over
portions of eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. However, soundings are
showing saturation in the mid-levels, there remains dry air at the
surface during the morning and into the afternoon. This will inhibit
some of the potential early on for snow to reach the surface. As
snow does develop and continue to fall, it should eventually start
making it to the ground. Right now, the best chance for snowfall
during the daytime hours will be for areas along and north of a line
from Omaha to Atlantic (IA).

Friday night, the surface low will slide further south into western
Kansas, before making its way across the state. As the low moves
further to the east, it will be better able to tap into warm, moist
Gulf air. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, there will
be a period of time where some rain or freezing rain may occur,
which will bring a chance for a light glaze of ice to a few
hundredths to portions of the area. As the low moves into western
Iowa Saturday morning, we will transition over to all snow.
Initially, with the potential for rain/freezing rain transitioning
to snow, SLR values are going to be lower than climatological
values, in some instances around 4:1 or 5:1. This will result in a
heavy, wet snow. We may have some issues with flash freezing on
roads which will result in slick conditions. SLR values are
expected to become a little closer to climatological values as
we get colder air coming in around the low.

Expected snow totals have gone up in some locations, particularly
heading further south toward the I-80 corridor and west. The
Winter Storm Warning was expanded to include Cedar and
Pottawattamie counties. The Winter Weather Advisory was also
expanded due to an increase in snow amounts and some concerns
about the potential for some impactful slick conditions along
the I-80 corridor. Much of the snow should exit our NEbraska
counties by Saturday evening and western Iowa by Sunday night.
There may be some potential for a bit of blowing snow, which
could also cause some travel impacts through Saturday night.

Heading into Sunday, the storm system will lift into the Great Lakes
region, bringing a reprieve from the wintry weather. Temperatures
will remain on the cold side, with highs struggling into the teens
and 20s. Wind chills will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday
night/Monday morning, temperatures will fall into the single digits
for most areas, with low teens possible for areas along and south of
I-80.

Monday, a shortwave will enter the region, bringing a 20-30% chance
of a few snow showers to areas along and south of a line from Omaha
to David City. Tuesday through the end of the forecast, we see a
change in the pattern with northwest flow setting up. Expect a
return to the 30s for high temperatures and the teens and 20s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the morning and part of the
afternoon at the terminals. A winter storm will be moving into
the region today, bringing chances for some light snow showers
today. This evening into tonight, there will be a possibility
for some rain/freezing rain which will transition to snow. Some
icing may be possible and reductions to visibility are expected
heading into the latter part of the forecast period. Ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR to IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for NEZ012-015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     CST Saturday night for NEZ016-030-031-042>045-050>053-065-
     067.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NEZ011-017-018-032>034.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for IAZ043-055-056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     CST Saturday night for IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

694
FXUS63 KGID 281151
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
551 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Storm Advisory will be in effect from 9PM this
  evening until 3PM Saturday for a few counties along and north
  of I-80.

- A mix of rain and freezing rain/drizzle will transition to snow
  across the overnight hours into to Saturday morning.

- Snow accumulations of a trace to 1" will be possible area-wide
  with amounts increasing up to 2-4" towards the northern and
  northeastern portions of the area (places mainly northeast of
  a line from Sherman to York counties).

- In addition, a glaze to just over a tenth of an inch of ice
  may accumulate in a few south central Nebraska areas during
  the rain to snow transition period (between mainly 8PM to 6AM)
  The best potential will be concentrated towards areas near
  the 1-80 corridor.

- Wind gusts up to 30-45MPH Saturday afternoon could cause
  blowing snow, resulting in reduced visibilities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025


The main story up front: At least a trace to a few inches of snow
(up to 4") will fall across the area overnight Friday and Saturday
morning. The heaviest snow amounts (2-4") will fall across places
northeast of a line from Sherman to York counties. In addition, a
glaze to just over a tenth of an inch of ice may possibly accrete
Friday evening and through the overnight hours for a portion of south
central nebraska during the rain to snow transition period (best
potential across the I-80 corridor between 8PM and 6AM). Blowing
snow will be possible Saturday afternoon as wind gusts blow up to 30-
45MPH.

What has changed?: Snow amounts have generally increased across the
north and northeastern half of the area with peak amounts now up to
2-4" (counties along and north of a line from Sherman to Polk).
Little change has occurred for our central areas (1-3" for Dawson and
Phelps over to York and Filmore counties) as well as the rest of
the area (a trace up to near 1") of snow. The confidence of freezing
rain/drizzle leading to a few areas of ice accumulations remain
a possibility (a glaze up to just over a tenth of an inch).

Winter Storm Advisory: Due to the slight increase in snowfall
amounts and the continued potential of areas of freezing rain, a
Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect 9PM tonight until 3PM
Saturday for most counties along and north of I-80 (not including
Dawson/Buffalo counties). Though not all of these places may receive
3" of snowfall (Advisory Criteria), given the potential for freezing
rain/drizzle, the criteria has been bent slightly to account for the
still potentially dangerous driving conditions (slick roads and
blowing snow).

Timing: Precipitation for a few locations north of I-80 and mainly
east of HWY-281, could see flurries as early as this morning, though
accumulating snow will not begin until the later tonight. Mixed
precipitation (primarily rain and freezing rain/drizzle) will expand
in coverage across the area from north to south between around 5PM
and 4AM. Areas around I-80 will be the most likely to observe
freezing rain/drizzle during this period of time. Between 1AM and
8AM, the mixed precipitation will slowly transition to snow with the
heaviest snow falling between 6AM and 11AM. The period of
accumulating snow should come to an end between 9AM and 3PM
(clearing west to east). Blowing snow looks probable to limit
visibility into the afternoon hours Saturday with winds gusts as
high as 30-45MPH possible across non-compact or glazed snowcover.

Other Notes: Beyond the precipitation chances Friday night into
Saturday morning, lows Saturday and Sunday night will range the
single digits teens with wind-chills as low as -5 to 5 degrees.
The potential for a second dusting of snow near the NE/KS
border remain in the forecast for Monday morning. Amounts
continue to remain below 1".

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Tonight...

Seasonable, but overall quiet weather is ongoing this afternoon with
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Cloud coverage will increase
over the area tonight ahead of an approaching trough. Clouds and
increasing southerly winds keep temperatures in the 20s to low 30s
overnight.

Friday and Saturday...

An initial band of light snow may graze far northeastern portions of
the area on Friday morning. Any accumulation looks to be little more
than a trace. Lift and moisture increase during the day on
Friday as the low moves into the Plains. As the atmosphere
slowly saturates, precipitation will likely start out very
light/drizzly. Precipitation chances (15-35%) during the daytime
hours on Friday will be confined to eastern/northeastern
portions of the area. Rain/drizzle transitions to freezing
rain/drizzle Friday evening across northeastern portions of the
area as temperatures steadily drop.

PoPs increase Friday night/early Saturday morning (50-80%) as
precipitation becomes more widespread around the low. A band of
freezing drizzle/rain is favored to develop roughly along I-80
during this time, with surface temperatures reaching the
freezing mark. Additionally, wet surfaces may begin to freeze
due to the dropping temperatures, first on elevated surfaces.
Combined, this will result in slick roads across the central and
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Freezing
rain/drizzle turns to snow from north to south Saturday morning,
with a complete transition to snow reaching the NE/KS border by
the mid-morning hours on Saturday. The period of heaviest
snowfall is expected during the morning hours on Saturday, with
snow ending from west to east late Saturday morning-afternoon.

Winds quickly ramp up Saturday morning along the backside of the
low, gusting 35-45mph. Falling snow combined with the gusty winds
will result in poor visibility and travel conditions. Additionally,
where heavier snow has fallen (north of I-80, west of Highway 281),
areas of blowing snow are possible into the evening hours. Overall
Saturday will not be a good day for travel for areas east of
Highway 281, and along/north of Interstate 80.

Snowfall totals remain fairly similar, with a dusting possible
across west/southwest portions of the area. Areas along and
northeast of the Tri-Cities have the highest chances to see 1" or
more of snow. It remains possible that a band of heavier snowfall
sets up over the area and produces 3-4" of snow, which would be
most likely along and northeast of a line from Greeley to York.

Sunday Onwards....

Temperatures Sunday morning will sit in the single digits to
mid teens. While much lighter than on Saturday, winds gusting
10-15mph combined with cold temperatures results in wind chill
values dropping near to below zero. Mostly cloudy skies during
the day will limit heating during the day, as highs only reach
the 20s on Sunday. A passing shortwave trough moves into the
area Sunday night-Monday morning, bringing another chance for
snow to mainly southern portions of the area. Accumulations with
this round look to be fairly light (1" or less), and be
confined mainly to areas along and south of the NE/KS border.
Temperatures climb back above freezing on Tuesday. Another
shortwave pushes through the area on Wednesday, bringing another
shot of cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clouds hovering around 8-12kft this morning will continue to lower
this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will initialize
between 20-0z with low-end MVFR ceilings in place by 4z. IFR
ceilings will form between 6-9z with LIFR ceilings possible
closer to 10-12z.

Beyond the clouds, rain/freezing rain will be expected to begin
between 0-6z, with a transition to snow between 9-12z. Blowing
snow will likely reduce visibilities into MVFR conditions
around 7-10z with IFR visibilities arriving between 9-12z.

Winds out of the southeast today will will blow between 10-15ks
with gusts up to 20-25kts. Winds later tonight will lighten,
turning towards the northwest between 4-12z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
     Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion