Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

083
FXUS63 KOAX 212307
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
607 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme to very high fire danger is forecast for northeast
  Nebraska on Wednesday afternoon.

- Shower and storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday
  (50-80%). Some storms on Thursday afternoon and evening may be
  severe (15% chance for any given storm.)

- Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances
  for showers Saturday (30%) into Sunday (70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Skies are primarily clear across Nebraska, Iowa, and the High
Plains as H5 ridging suggests subsidence. A boundary draped
across the area`s mid-section is more of a dryline than a cold
front.

As of the lunch hour, temps are primarily in the mid- to
upper-70s with a few 80s popping up in northeast Nebraska where
the drier air is easier to heat. Dewpoints currently range from
the mid-50s south of the boundary draped across the area to some
mid- to lower-30s north of it.

The boundary is progged to slip south by only 50 miles or so
through the afternoon hours before southerly winds drive it
north over the course of the evening and overnight. By midnight
a nocturnal LLJ develops over western/central Nebraska and
helps with moisture return over this forecast area.

.WEDNESDAY...

A deep upper low approaches from the west while a sfc low
develops in lee of the Rockies. Breezy southerly winds develop
ahead of the system. A dryline will push through east and
approach northeast Nebraska. Stronger gusts of 25-35 knots
in this part of the state will help mix some drier air to the
surface where dewpoints may find their way back into the 30s
again. This would allow RH values to slip below 20%. There is
lots of uncertainty as to how far east the boundary will push
and how low the dewpoints will get. This forecast is undoubtedly
aggressively dry and closer to the 25th percentile of model
solutions. However, fire weather days do tend to lean this way.
Have flipped the FIRE WEATHER WATCH to a RED FLAG WARNING and
expanded considerably. Recent contact with local fire officials
increases confidence in fuel readiness in northern counties.

Were the dryline to remain in central Nebraska, fire concerns
would be tamped down.

Showers and some thunder look possible late Wednesday night
thanks to the LLJ and a little elevated instability.

.THURSDAY...

A powerful 985 hPa low will track just north of the US/Canadian
border on Thursday and drag a cold front/dryline through the
area on Thursday afternoon and evening. There`s still plenty of
uncertainty in its timing, but it`s worth noting that the EC and
the RAP both slowed the front with 12Z runs today and therefore
produce a better chance of severe weather for Thursday as our
area should spend the afternoon in the warm sector. Ahead of
the front, plenty of instability and straight hodographs mean
thunderstorms are likely. Although they may start as supercells,
the straight hodos suggest interference between storms as
upscale growth continues. Expect an eventual line of storms to
form as they push east. This will reduce the threat of tornado
development (early supercells would be capable of producing
funnels/tornados). Heavy rain looks possible, too, with PWAT
values above the 97th percentile.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

Behind the departing system, cooler weather builds in with highs
anticipated to peak only in the (seasonally normal) sixties. Two
different rounds of precipitation are possible over the weekend
with lesser chances on Saturday (40%) and best chances on Sunday
(70-80%) with an upper low and attendant surface system
developing across SD/Nebraska vicinity. Moisture return and PWAT
values are noteworthy once again on Sunday. It`s early, but NBM
ensemble probabilities suggest a 50-60% chance of 0.50" or more
precip falling this weekend. That holds true for the entire
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period with only a few scattered
to broken high clouds overnight. Winds have become mostly
southerly this afternoon and should remain out of the south
overnight. Winds then increase Wednesday morning, gusting 20 to
30 kt through the afternoon. KOFK may see gusts up to 35 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

722
FXUS63 KGID 212347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  across mainly NNW portions of the area on Wednesday. A Red
  Flag Warning has been issued from 12-8PM for areas along/west
  of a Genoa-Kearney-Beaver City line. Wind gusts near 40 MPH
  will be possible.

- More widespread fire weather concerns return for Thursday, as
  relative humidity drops quickly behind a passing frontal
  boundary. This frontal boundary will also be the focus for
  storms during the afternoon-evening hours...which may impact
  eastern portions of the area. Some strong-severe storms will
  be possible.

- Spotty precipitation chances continue through the end of the
  week and upcoming weekend...with models suggesting Sunday may
  be the best chance for more widespread precipitation. Lot of
  time to iron out details however and see how models trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently through tonight...

Dry conditions continue to reign today...with satellite imagery
showing plenty of sun across the region. Looking aloft...upper
air data shows west-northwesterly flow in place as ridging
slides east through the Plains...set up between broad troughing
off the East Coast and a larger scale low pressure system moving
onto the coast of northern CA/southern OR. At the surface, the
first half of the day saw most spots with light/at times
variable winds with a weak surface boundary draped across the
area. This afternoon, low pressure/troughing over the High
Plains is helping to pull that boundary northward...with more
ESE to the north ahead of the front, more gusty southerly winds
to the south. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with
most in the mid-upper 80s. Do have spots where relative humidity
values have dropped to/below 20 percent...but with the winds
remaining generally lighter (though there has been an occasional
gust near 20 MPH), critical fire weather conditions haven`t
been an issue.

This evening through tonight, no notable changes were made to
the dry forecast. Not expecting changes with the surface
pattern, we remain east of the main area of sfc low pressure,
which will keep winds southerly through the night...speeds
around 10-15 MPH, can`t rule out some gusts near 20 MPH in
spots. The southerly flow will continue to transport better
moisture northward, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading across
more of the forecast area with time. Overnight lows tonight are
mild, dropping into the low-mid 50s (normal lows this time of
year are in the mid 30s-low 40s).

Wednesday...

Overall, models haven`t show any notable changes for
Wednesday...still looking to be another day of well above normal
temps, this time with stronger winds. In the upper levels, flow
across the Central Plains is turning more southwesterly as that
larger low pressure system moves further inland...becoming more
centered over portions of MT by early evening. At the surface,
low pressure continues to deepen ahead of this system...with
models showing a strengthening dryline extending through western
portions of SD-NE-KS. A tightening pressure gradient will bring
stronger southerly winds throughout the day...with gusts near
35-40 MPH possible, especially for WNW portions of the area.
Forecast calling for similar highs for most locations, well into
the 80s for some...little more uncertainty across SSE areas,
where there may be more lower level clouds lingering longer into
the day than in other spots. After collab with neighboring
offices, the main change to the forecast for Wednesday was with
the issuance of a Red Flag warning, for areas roughly along/west
of a line Genoa-Kearney-Beaver City, NE. There are some
uncertainties...mainly with dewpoints and how far they drop with
mixing through the day. Forecast is on the lower side of things
for dewpoints/relative humidity in that area...have RH values
falling into the 17-25 percent range, confidence in winds is
higher...that NWrn area has the best potential to reach critical
fire weather conditions.

Later in the afternoon, this surface dryline off to our west is
expected to be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, some of which could be strong-severe. The big
questions for our area lie in the finer details...exactly where
does that dryline initially set up/strengthen...and can any
activity maintain itself long enough to impact our CWA. The
further west that boundary ends up, the lower the chances of
impact on us...but there are a few models that inch things
further east...thus the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remaining
over our far west. Large hail/damaging winds would be the main
threat...and would likely be a short-lived threat.

Through the overnight hours...can`t rule out some scattered
showers and weaker storms passing through the area as that
main upper low/trough push further east. Based on some models
recent trends, feel that current forecast PoPs are too broad in
nature...have 20 percent chances all the way through our KS
counties. Some models keep us dry and focus things just off to
the north.

Thursday...

By the time 12Z Thursday rolls around...models aren`t in too bad
of agreement showing upper level low pressure having moved
into eastern portions of Montana...with a SSW extending trough
axis int the UT/CO border area. At the surface, models also in
good agreement showing the main surface frontal boundary looks
to be knocking on the door of our western-most counties. Through
the rest of the daytime- evening hours...question number 1 is
tied to that surface frontal boundary`s progress through the
forecast area. There have been and continue to be slight, but
important, differences between models (even run to run for some)
with the timing of that progress...as we get mid-late
afternoon, that front will be the focus of thunderstorm
development. Some models remain consistent that at most storms
affect roughly the HWY 81 corridor...others have trended more
toward/stayed with a earlier (more like early-mid afternoon),
further west development (closer to HWY 281). It`ll be
interesting to see how models trend, now that we`ll be getting
further into a timeframe where more hi-res models are available.
Ahead of the front, could have MUCAPE values exceeding 2000
j/kg...with deeper layer shear of potentially 30-40 kts. SPC Day
3 Slight Risk remains over portions of the area east of HWY
281. Any initial discrete storms look to form into more of a
line fairly quickly...and the main severe threat also looks to
make a overall quick exit to the east, even the slowest/western
models have us clear by mid-evening.

Along with the storm threat, there is also a fire weather threat
behind the surface front. Gusty west-northwest winds are
expected to accompany the front...along with a drier airmass
and increased mixing, dewpoints look to fall into the teens-20s.
Forecast relative humidity values below 20 percent have the
potential to be fairly widespread...but like the storm chances
will depend on the eastward progress of that front. With the
expected gusty winds, it`s looking likely a fire headline will
be needed for Thursday...just a matter of how much of the area
will be included.

Friday and on...

For the end of the week, models continue to show the main area
of upper level low pressure shifting into central
Canada...keeping some spotty precipitation chances around mainly
Friday night into Saturday. As we get into Sunday...another
shortwave disturbance that starts the weekend out in CA slides
ENE out onto the Plains...and models continue to be on the
aggressive side with the potential coverage of precipitation.
12Z ECMWF ensembles showing a roughly 30- 50 percent probability
of 1 inch more, mainly near/north of the NE- KS state
line...GEFS is lower. Will see how things trend in the coming
days...but that would be some very welcome moisture. Spotty
precip chances continue into the start of the new work
week...not much confidence in things that far out.

Following highs in the 70s-low 80s on Thursday...cooler highs
are expected through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun generally
range from the low-mid 60s north to low 70s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Low level wind shear (LLWS) tonight, very
strong southerly surface winds on Wednesday.

Tonight: VFR. Main concern will be development of 35-40kt LLWS
between 03Z-05Z at both sites. This LLWS should persist through
about 09Z, then weaken. Sfc winds overnight will be out of the
SE-S at around 8-13kt. Confidence: High.

Wednesday: VFR. Southerly surface winds will quickly ramp up
during the AM, becoming downright windy for the afternoon.
Expect peak winds during the afternoon to be (at least) around
21-27kt sustained, with gusts up around 35kt. Not expecting much
for cloud cover. Strong S winds will likely persist for at least
another 6 hours beyond this valid TAF period, though probably
just a bit lower than the previous afternoon. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion