51°F
Updated:
11/7/2025
6:30:00pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
297 FXUS63 KOAX 072331 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 531 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and warm today with high fire danger for parts of northeast Nebraska. - Rain chances increase tonight through Saturday night. The highest chance of precipitation, 60 to 90%, for northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Light snow may mix in Saturday evening, but no impacts are expected. - Significantly colder temperatures are to be expected on Sunday and Monday. Morning temperatures in the teens and low 20s with afternoon highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s are anticipated. Wind chills may be as low as the single digits during the morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous forecasts with only minor adjustments being made. This afternoon will be the last of the warm weather for the time-being with sunny skies pushing temperatures into the 60s. A breezy northwest wind is resulting in high fire danger for parts of northeast Nebraska though. A leading shortwave trough passed through the region this morning. While little impact was felt for our region today, this system is pushing colder air closer to our area into portions of South Dakota and Minnesota ahead of tomorrow`s system. Precipitation chances begin to increase tonight as our next shortwave trough begins to influence the region. Rain chances begin across northeast Nebraska before spreading southeast through the morning hours. This activity remains primarily rain, but a few snow flakes could briefly mix in around sunrise near the South Dakota border. Otherwise, a cold rain will start the day. A low pressure system takes shape south of the I-80 corridor during the morning and afternoon. This low pressure is expected to further support rain with the highest chance, 60 to 90%, expected across northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. The areas that receive the most rainfall and cloud cover may struggle to get out of the lower 40s as a result through Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, slightly drier conditions and perhaps a peak of sun pushes temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s. By Saturday evening, the low pressure will be kicked off to the east as a trailing shortwave trough begins to swing across the area. This causes temperatures to plunge, especially after sunset. Light snow will begin to mix in shortly after sunset across portions of northeast Nebraska. As we head into the late evening, light snow may begin to overspread the Omaha Metro and I-80 corridor. Southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa may see a few snow flakes after midnight. While wintry precipitation is expected, overall amounts should remain low. As the colder airmass overspreads the area, so to will a drier airmass. This will greatly limit the amount of precipitation and coupled with warm ground temperatures, little to no impacts are expected at this time. By Sunday morning, the area will have dried out, but the cold will set in. A gusty northwest wind with morning temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s will make it feel like the single digits at times. Temperatures struggle to climb into the 30s during the afternoon. The gusty winds subside by Sunday night, but this does little to help with the cold. Clear skies and light winds by Monday morning result in excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures start out mainly in the teens to near 20 with wind chills in the single digits once again. Continued sunshine through the afternoon aids in pushing high temperatures back into the 40s on Monday. After Monday, an amplified blocking pattern takes shape. A pronounced mid-level ridge over the Great Plains pushes our temperatures back above normal by Tuesday. Upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of sun and dry weather can be anticipated each afternoon through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions start out the TAF period this evening, with winds slowly shifting northerly, then shifting easterly overnight. In addition to the shifting winds, a weather system will be moving in tomorrow morning by 12z, affecting KOFK and KOMA while missing KLNK. MVFR to IFR conditions will accompany most of the showers that move through with the rain, with a few flakes possibly mixing in with the rain (30% chance). Another round of rain showers will try to swing through the area during the mid- afternoon hours, bringing sporadic rain and brief bouts of MVFR ceilings as clouds go from SCT to BKN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
273 FXUS63 KGID 072348 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 548 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will move through tonight and bring big changes for the weekend - including strong NW wind gusts 35-45 MPH, elevated fire weather, and much colder temperatures. Wind chills in the single digits to mid teens likely Sunday AM! - After bottoming out in the lower teens Monday AM, unseasonably warm temperatures return Tuesday and continue much of next week. Several days of highs in the 60s (at least) are expected. - Light rain showers may clip NE portions of the forecast area late tonight into Saturday AM, and additional sprinkles and/or flurries will be possible Saturday evening/night. Otherwise, dry conditions likely for the next 7+ days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 It`s turned into a pretty nice, albeit a bit breezy, end to the work week with mostly sunny skies helping temperatures rise into the 60s to near 70 area wide. Pleasant conditions will continue into/through the evening as winds decrease around sunset and high clouds increase from the west. A strong cold front remains on track to slice through the region tonight - generally in the 09Z to 13Z time frame. A sfc low pressure center, attendant to the cold front and associated upper disturbance, will track right over the CWA from NW to SE. To the N/NE of the low, areas of light rain showers/sprinkles will be possible. Greatest chances for our area will be along and NE of a line from Greeley to York. Not expecting much for amounts ourselves, but not too far to the N & NE of the area could get some decent rain and even some accumulating snowfall. The main story for the daytime hours Saturday will be the strong NWrly winds gusting 35-45 MPH, and perhaps even around 50 MPH in the Ord, NE area. Some sun will help take the edge off the wind a little bit, and highs should manage to make it into the 50s. A reinforcing shot of (even) cold(er) air will surge southward Sat eve/night, and this will be the real slap in the face to our recent warm/mild conditions. In fact, temperatures plummeting into the teens combined with continued blustery N winds will drive wind chill values into the single digits to mid teens by Sunday morning! The strong cold air advection Sat eve could easily squeeze out some sprinkles and/or flurries per recent simulated reflectivity progs and associated forecast soundings. Have expanded this mention later into the evening and further S. Shouldn`t be heavy enough to amount to any accumulations (rain or snow), just know there could be some light precipitation in the blustery N winds and falling temps Sat eve/night. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the region on Sunday and allow for decreasing winds. Latest deterministic EC remains consistent in building the core of a nearly 1040mb high pressure center into the local area Sunday night into Monday AM, which would really allow for temps to tank to coldest levels of the season. Latest forecast blend calls for widespread lows in the teens, but latest CONSMOS and NBM 10-25th percentile suggests some single digits can`t be ruled out from around Lexington to Ord. Far cry from the 60s we have now! Fortunately, the sharp cold spell is going to be a brief one as upper ridging and unseasonably warm temperatures return in earnest on Tuesday and persist through the end of the week. Despite the calendar showing the middle of November, it`s looking increasingly likely we`ll be able to squeeze out multiple days with highs in the 60s, perhaps even 70s in spots, Tuesday through at least Friday of next week. Pattern MAY turn a bit cooler (though may still be mild) and more active towards days 8-10. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions favored through TAF period. Light and variable winds will increase early Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the TAF sites (10-12z). Wind steadily increase and become northwesterly behind the front (mid-late morning hours). The strongest winds will occur during the afternoon, with sustained winds around 25kts with gusts around 35kts. Winds begin to decrease near the end of the TAF period. SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds are expected ahead of the cold frontal passage. Along and just behind the cold frontal passage, some MVFR stratus is possible, which could briefly drop conditions to MVFR. At this time, the best chances look to remain northeast of KGRI/KEAR, so kept the mention to FEW-SCT. During the mid-late afternoon, low VFR stratus moves into KGRI. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Davis
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