Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

124
FXUS63 KOAX 030542
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system lifting out of northwest Kansas into eastern
  Nebraska/western Iowa will bring the potential for
  precipitation Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible, particularly along and east of a line from Lincoln
  to Omaha.

- The severe thunderstorm risk decreases late Friday
  afternoon/early Friday evening. Precipitation chances continue
  with rain, a rain/snow mix and snow all possible through
  Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions set up Saturday evening through Monday morning.

- Another pattern shift brings additional periodic chances for
  precipitation to the region beginning Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Hand analysis shows a surface low over western Iowa this evening,
with another low developing on the lee side of the Rockies over
eastern Colorado/western Kansas. For the rest of tonight, there will
be a small chance of some patchy fog developing over the
southwestern portion of the CWA. With recent precipitation,
radiational cooling, weak upslope winds and less cloud cover over
the area heading into the early morning hours Friday, cannot
entirely rule out some patchy fog developing in low-lying areas.

Heading into the day Friday, the low lifts to the northeast over
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A warm front will lift into east
central Nebraska and west central Iowa during the day with a cold
front trailing behind it. Within the warm sector, temperatures will
warm into the 60s and 70s, while northern areas will remain in the
40s and 50s through the day. Thunderstorms are expected to fire up
along the front Friday, with the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. A few storms initially will have the potential
of producing some hail and strong winds. Gusty winds will become
more of the dominant hazard type as storms congeal into a line and
become a little more organized. An isolated tornado risk cannot be
entirely ruled out for the extreme southeastern portion of Nebraska.
Once the main line of storms moves through, models show a dry slot
coming over much of the area as the low progresses northeast.

Wrap around precipitation is expected to push into the region Friday
evening for areas north of Hwy 92. Rain will transition over to a
rain/snow mix before changing to all snow as temperatures fall. By
sunrise Saturday, snow or a rain/snow mix will continue to impact
western portions of the CWA. Little to no snow accumulation is
expected. Precipitation will taper off southwest to northeast
Saturday afternoon as the low continues to lift out of the region.
Expect breezy northwest winds gusting to around 30-35mph. Expected
highs will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Saturday evening through Monday morning, northwest flow sets up over
the region with a ridge over the western CONUS. After several days
of moisture across the region, we will finally have a chance to dry
out a little bit.

Heading into the latter portions of the forecast period, the pattern
changes again with several disturbances sliding through the region.
Expect periodic chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Low ceilings will move back in overnight, with most locations
expected to dip back to MVFR and IFR by 09Z tonight. Patchy fog
will work its way into east-central Nebraska by early Friday
morning. LNK will be the most likely site to be impacted, with
visibilities occasionally dipping to 1-3 SM between 12-18Z
Friday morning. Additionally, showers are will likely overspread
the region Friday. The best chances for light rain will be
between 13-19Z at KOFK (30-50%), 13-21Z at KOMA (40-65%), and
12-19Z at KLNK (20-40%). A few thunderstorms will be possible,
especially across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with
the best chance for lightning at KOMA after 18Z. Conditions
should improve Friday evening, with low ceilings scattering out
after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

262
FXUS63 KGID 031004
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
504 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog still possible this morning, mainly over
  portions of south central Nebraska.

- Increasing westerly winds behind a departing storm system will
  usher in drier air into W/SW portions of the area this
  afternoon, resulting in near critical to critical fire weather
  conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas
  for the afternoon into early evening hours.

- Best chances for measurable precip with today`s system will be
  mainly across northeastern portions of the local area. Little
  accumulation is expected.

- After a breezy and seasonably cool start to the weekend,
  temperatures will climb back above seasonal norms Sunday
  afternoon, which along with lighter winds, should make for a
  nice Easter Sunday across the local area.

- Precip chances return as early as Monday afternoon to parts of
  the local area with more widespread (and potentially
  beneficial) precipitation chances coming Wednesday/Thursday of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a potent storm system
spinning over the central Rockies, with diffluent SWrly upper
flow situated over the central Plains. This storm system will
eject E/ENE through the Plains and be the primary driver to
sensible weather today. At the surface, a lee low pressure is
analyzed near the CO/NE/KS border, with another low pressure
area near/NW the Black Hills...connected to each other by an
occluded front. Erly, upslope flow has established across the
local area early this morning, which combined with returning
moisture/stratus that temporarily shifted E/NE of the area,
could lead to some fairly widespread, and potentially dense, fog
this morning. Areas of south central Nebraska look to be the
most impacted. So far, this moisture is remaining as mostly very
low stratus, but recent HRRR runs remain adamant this will
build down lower into some fog. We`ll see how the next few hours
evolve - think it could go either way. General setup (E/upslope
flow, good crossover temps, and recent moisture) favor fog, but
sometimes it just remains as a LIFR cloud deck.

Within the stratus, could see some scattered drizzle and/or
light rain showers blossom later this morning as lift increases
ahead of aforementioned ejecting trough. Still think the brunt
of significant and/or widespread accumulating moisture will
remain primarily N/NE of the local forecast area, with only a
trace to a few hundredths..."heaviest" N/NE of the Tri-Cities.

Finally, this afternoon...expect decreasing clouds and
increasing winds - esp. W/SW of the Tri-Cities - on the backside
of the departing low pressure system, which should enable some
late-day warming. See Fire Weather Section below for more
details on the potential for critical to near- critical fire
weather conditions for portions of the forecast area this
afternoon into early evening.

Not much new to speak to in the extended. Easter Sunday will be
a bit chilly in the morning with temperatures starting out in
the 30s. However, midday through early evening should be fairly
pleasant with seasonably modest winds (5-15 G20 MPH) and
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The upper level low that impacted the area overnight can be see
on satellite tracking across Iowa this afternoon with the next
upper low upstream of the local area spinning near northwestern
Wyoming. In between these 2 systems, clearing skies are
gradually making their way across the local forecast area.

As skies clear across the area this evening, winds diminish and
become more southeasterly, could see some fog development across
mainly our Nebraska counties overnight. The HRRR has been very
consistent all day indicating dense fog across much of the state
during the overnight hours, but while winds do shift and become
more favorable for fog development, they remain 10-15 MPH,
which isn`t exactly ideal. As a result, introduced some patchy
fog to the forecast through the morning commute Friday, but did
not completely buy into the HRRR and mention more widespread or
dense fog.

Expect the upper level low to our northwest to reach the
panhandle of Nebraska by mid-day Friday, with the associated
cold front ahead of it rapidly tracking across the local area
and bring a shift in winds during the morning hours. Could see
some light post frontal precip across areas mainly north and
east of the Nebraska Tri-Cities through around midday, as the
upper level low eventually lifts east northeast across South
Dakota during the afternoon and evening hours. While some very
small pops were retained mainly north of Highway 92 as the upper
level low passes by later in the day, the track of the upper
level low has trended further north, and confidence of any
precip with the low itself is low.

Dry and mostly sunny weather then returns over the holiday
weekend, but with a windy start to the weekend on Saturday
combined with dry conditions across our western most counties,
could see a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. Sunday,
however, looks like really nice Easter, with lighter winds and
the return of above normal afternoon temperatures across the
local area.

With a fairly progressive northwestelry flow pattern across the
local area aloft to start next week, expect multiple quick
passing disturbances to brush the local area, and because of
this, extended guidance is suggesting a return of precip as
early as Monday afternoon. While a stray passing shower cannot
be completely ruled out, think there are many more chances for
precip early next week than eventually will be realized...with
the best chance for more widespread and beneficial precip likely
not returning until the middle to latter portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR and LIFR CIGs and VSBYs overnight-Friday AM.

An IFR-LIFR stratus deck is expected to move into the terminals
in the next few hours. Some fog may be possible with this
stratus, as well, though recent model guidance remains uncertain
on the exact timing. Have included a TEMPO group to indicate
that fog may be patchy to start. More widespread IFR fog is
expected to clear around midday. Stratus will be slower to clear
with low MVFR to IFR CIGs continuing into the aftn. VFR
conditions should return mid to late aftn. Erly winds shift to
the NW after sunrise with sustained winds of 10-15kt and gusts
20-25kt. During the aftn hrs, winds bec more Wrly at EAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Have issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and early
evening for areas roughly along and W of a line from Lexington
to Alma to Phillipsburg and Plainville. No issues this morning
with cool and somewhat damp conditions on steady easterly low
level flow. However, this afternoon, expect winds to turn to the
NW then W and steadily increase as mixing depth increases...with
gusts peaking around 25-35 MPH. The NW/W flow will usher in
drier air and allow for decreasing clouds, warming temperatures,
and RHs falling into the teens to low 20s for areas along and
esp. W of Hwy 183. Fortunately, it will be a relatively narrow
window in time and space (effective time for the RFW is probably
a bit "generous") for the combination of low RH and gusty
winds...and there will be at least some resistance to the fuels
initially given the damp AM conditions. However, considering
these areas are well within severe drought and received
considerably less moisture than areas further E/NE, felt prudent
to go ahead and err on notion that fine fuels will become
receptive this afternoon given the combination of increasing sun
and wind and falling RHs.

Will likely see the seasonably-typical, generally minor, daily
instances of near-critical conditions in esp our SW zones
nearly each afternoon this weekend into early next week.
However, no one particular day looks overly concerning at this
time with generally "seasonable" winds for spring/April and only
modest RH drops forecast at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ060-072-082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion