Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

783
FXUS63 KOAX 200549
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1249 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern
  Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, though a few strong to
  severe storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures settle in Sunday into early next week,
  with highs mainly in the 70s and periodic chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a longwave trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS this evening, with ridging
over the West Coast. A shortwave disturbance led to the broad
area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms that moved
through earlier. That is exiting to the southeast this evening.
Showers and cloud cover led to temperatures not warming quite
as much as expected today, with cooler temperatures expected
overnight tonight. A great night to crack your windows open and
get some fresh air. Winds become calm overnight with clearing
skies which could lead to some patchy fog developing. Guidance
suggests best potential for this is along a corridor from the
Platte River north to Cuming and Burt counties east into Monona,
Harrison, and Shelby counties in Iowa.

Saturday we see a more substantial upper-level wave moving into
the area. This will bring a decently strong surface low into
the Central Plains tracking from northwest Nebraska through
northwest Missouri. As this low deepens to our west, we see
increasing southerly flow lifting a warm front north out of
Kansas into southeast Nebraska.

With the disturbance arriving closer to 00-03Z Saturday night,
the more substantial rainfall is expected through the evening
and overnight hours, but CAM guidance has been trending upward
in coverage of showers and storms Saturday afternoon due to an
antecedent upper-level disturbance tapping into the moist,
unstable environment ahead of the main Low. Isentropic upglide
will lead to a modestly unstable elevated layer north of the
warm front with strong moisture advection and pooling along the
elevated warm-front. With only a modest amount of shear, we`re
not expecting much in the way of severe weather with these
afternoon storms north, but closer to the Kansas state line we
do get a little more unstable. If we can get any clearing at
all, low-level shear south is much better with 61kt of effective
bulk shear, and 0-3km SRH of around 300. Don`t think this will
be a significantly large hail event, but we could see some
quarters with stronger storms. Significant moisture in the
environment will make large hail difficult. Instead, heavy
rainfall and damaging winds will be the bigger threats from
these storms.

Meanwhile, during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday we`ll
see the beginnings of an MCS develop over northwest KS/southwest
Nebraska. The track of this system overnight will greatly depend
on where the thermal gradient sets up south of the extent of
storms over eastern Nebraska. If the latest HRRR runs are true,
this system will track more into northeast Kansas than southeast
Nebraska, keeping the wind threat south. The greater threat
overnight will be a second disturbance bringing another wave of
showers and storms into eastern Nebraska, leading to additional
heavy rain into Sunday morning, not clearing out until 8-10AM.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning we`re expecting a
significant amount of rainfall. HREF LPMM shows widespread
amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts, generally in
southeast Nebraska upwards of 8 inches in a few locations. For
this reason, we have a Flood Watch issued for Saturday night
into early Sunday across southeast Nebraska and far southwest
Iowa.

Rest of Sunday and Beyond...

Once this system clears Sunday morning, we see quasi-zonal flow
set up across the CONUS with ridging over northwest Mexico being
kept south by a trough moving out of western Canada. With the
polar jet more active and farther south than usual later in
June, it`s no surprise we`ll have a cooler air mass settle in
from Canada behind this Saturday system. Highs on Sunday again
will only be in the low-to-mid 70s. Through the week next week
we see the quasi-zonal flow transition as the ridge over NW
Mexico builds northward into the Four Corners region. This will
bring back more moderate northwesterly flow keeping temperature
more mild despite a gradual warming trend into midweek.
Shortwaves riding down the northwesterly flow out of western
Canada will bring additional periodic chances for showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Expect light and somewhat variable winds overnight, though what
wind there is is favored to be out of the south. Expect some fog
development toward sunrise with most likely impacts at OMA, but
can`t rule it out at LNK and OFK. Visibility could drop below 1
mile in some spots, but kept it to 1 1/2 SM at OMA for now.
Prevailing winds should then become southeasterly through the
remainder of the period with some gusts of 18-20 kts at times.
However, showers and storms are expected to move in by early
to mid afternoon and linger through most of the period which
could lead to some erratic winds along with MVFR to IFR
conditions at times. There is potential for an extended period
of TSRA, but for now tried to highlight the most likely
timeframe at LNK and OFK, with some potential that most TS stays
west of OMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

180
FXUS63 KGID 200650
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
150 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight and morning showers and thunderstorms expected
  across portions of the area. Some storms may be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Rain and storms will continue to develop from the afternoon
  into the overnight hours. The highest chance of rain is during
  the evening and overnight hours (60% to 90% chance).

- Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, isolated
  tornadoes, and flooding will be possible this afternoon into
  tonight.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area from 7 PM this
  evening to 7 AM Sunday.

- Total rainfall amounts today through Sunday of 1 to 5 inches
  are expected with 2 to 5 inches in the Flood Watch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Currently across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas temperatures are in the 50s and 60s with light,
mostly easterly winds. Showers are beginning to develop (mainly
across north central Kansas and the Nebraska counties south of I-
80). This activity is expected to continue, expand in coverage, and
intensify with thunderstorms developing (some possibly strong to
marginally severe). The threats with the strongest storms will be
hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH. These showers
and storms may move north of I-80 close to/after sunrise.

Showers and storms will continue into the morning hours and will
likely move/expand further north and east. While widespread severe
storms are not expected this morning, a few storms may become strong
to marginally severe. Storms will likely still be ongoing this
afternoon and may intensify and expand in coverage as the atmosphere
destabilizes. CAPE values are expected to be over 3,000 J/kg in
areas that receive the most sunlight. 0 to 6 km wind shear will be
over 50 knots areawide this afternoon. However, mid-level lapse
rates may be hindered this afternoon by cloud cover and ongoing
convection. Models differ on placement of rain and thunderstorms
this afternoon through tonight so it is difficult to pinpoint where
storms will be at a particular time. It does appear as though the
Nebraska counties in our forecast area will be more likely to be
impacted by thunderstorms this afternoon than the north central
Kansas counties. The vast majority of the forecast area by/around 10
PM will likely either be getting rain and/or storms. Rain and storm
chances at 10 PM range from around 60% to 90%. Some models indicate
another cluster/line of storms moving in from the west into north
central Kansas and southern Nebraska this evening. The rain and
storms are expected to continue through most, if not all, of the
overnight hours. An MCS may develop late this evening into the
overnight hours and push through the area.

Large hail up to around golf ball size, wind gusts up to around 70
MPH, isolated tornadoes, and flooding will all be possible. The wind
and flooding threats will increase later this evening into tonight.
Much of the forecast area is in a Flood Watch from 7 PM this
evening to 7 AM Sunday. Total rain amounts today through Sunday
are expected to range from 1 to 5 inches across the whole area
with amounts of 2 to 5 inches in the Flood Watch. Rain will
continue moving eastward Sunday morning with more showers and
storms possibly moving into western portions of the area Sunday
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms on Sunday have the
potential to become strong to marginally severe with hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH depending on how
destabilized the atmosphere becomes after the storms from tonight.
High temperatures both today and Sunday are expected to mostly
be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This is an active forecast, primarily within the first 2-3 days.
Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms were not well
forecast, with some models hinting at it early today. However,
as the day has evolved, models persist with this activity, but
even with radar as an initial condition, high-res models are
struggling with areal coverage. Confidence in the next 48 hours
has evolved throughout the day today, but there remains
uncertainty in how each round of convection will impact the
next.

Current expectations for the evolution of the next 48 hours.

Round 1:
Ongoing Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to
eventually diminish and move east southeast tapering a bit by
the evening hours for much of south central Nebraska. There is a
signal of some off and on scattered storms persisting in north
central Kansas into the evening and early overnight hours. The
best instability remains off to the west of the area. This
afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Later tonight,
some marginally severe storms could develop with hail to the
size of quarters.

Largely expect a lull in most of the activity during the
overnight hours.

Round 2:
This round is expected to begin just before sunrise on Saturday
morning along or near the Highway 183 corridor. High-res
Ensembles and even the EC Ensemble support this morning
development. This activity will have slightly more instability
to work with than Round 1 did. While widespread severe weather
is not expected, some of the storms could be strong to severe.
This activity will slowly move eastwards through out the day.

Expect a lull in activity after round 2 passes in the afternoon.

Round 3:
This round is expected to develop in the High Plains of Nebraska
and Kansas and track eastward aided by an upper disturbance.
This activity continues to have the best ingredients to work
with for the most part, and the primary concern for strong to
severe thunderstorms. That being said, this round also may be
impacted by the rounds before it, and that brings in some
uncertainty. Round 2 may limit some of the ability for the
atmosphere to recover along and north of I-80, and there has
been subtle shifts in the guidance that is trending the primary
severe threat along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas stateline.
With round 3, the primary threat is wind as a line of storms
develops to our west on the High Plains and tracks eastward into
the evening and overnight hours. Severe winds up to 70 mph are
possible. Hail up to golfball size is possible, but that best
threat is along and west of Highway 183.

This third round has a lot of upper level support, and while the
worst of the severe activity is along and south of the state
line, severe storms are possible throughout the whole area. In
addition to the strong storms, the repeated rounds of rain will
increase the chance for flooding. Round 3 doesn`t linger long,
but various models and ensembles, indicate the potential for 2-3
inches of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Have
joined neighbors and issued a Flood Watch. Did not initially
include Valley and Greeley Counties, but could see them being
added in the next update.

Sunday:
Additional Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, these could be
strong to severe as well, but have focused primarily on today
and Saturday for this forecast.


Workweek:
The remainder of the forecast is active as the Central Plains
sits under zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, allowing each
weak disturbance to impact the region. Temperatures generally in
the 70s for the week, which is below the 80+ degree normals we
usually see in the second half of June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 0108 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the early
morning hours, with KEAR/KGRI residing on the northern fridge
of a midlevel cloud layer and variable winds across the area.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
area around mid morning, eventually expanding into a more broad
thunderstorm cluster late morning. While these early storms are
anticipated to impact the terminals, their scattered nature
causes lower confidence in their exact location, so included
this within a PROB30 group. As these showers/storms congeal into
a cluster, MVFR ceilings are expected, with periods of MVFR
visibilities also possible within the stronger rain bands.

This thunderstorm cluster is expected to clear out of the area
in the afternoon/evening. Confidence is higher that KEAR will
experience a 2 hour gap between thunderstorm activity around
22Z, however the exact timing of this break is still uncertain.
While KGRI is also expected to see some sort of break, the
timing and length of this break is more uncertain, hence the
lack of presence in the TAF.

Another batch of strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms are
likely to move into the area in the evening/overnight hours.
This threat was included in a PROB30 group due to uncertainty in
storm coverage, severity, and timing. Hail, strong winds, and
IFR visibilities also can not be ruled out with these storms,
although is too uncertain to include at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion