Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

089
FXUS63 KOAX 260519
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1219 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong storms continue overnight in northeast
  Nebraska. Most will remain below severe criteria.

- Above-average temperatures continue through Thursday, with
  highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Precipitation chances for the second half of the work week and
  the weekend have been falling.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The upper pattern, as revealed by guidance and water vapor
imagery, reveals a cut-off low driving down the West Coast as a
contracted ridge back-builds over the High Plains. The KOAX
radar waves are reflected back to Valley, NE by some
strong/severe thunderstorms in far northeast Nebraska. These
storms are expected to push out of the area by sunrise as the
storms continue northeast.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....

High temps remain about ten degrees above normal for both
Tuesday and Wednesday as mid-level ridging continues to expand
northwest into the Canadian Prairies. Each day`s skies should be
averaging less than four oktas of cloud cover. (It`ll be partly
sunny.) Precip chances for both days have slipped over the
course of the weekend from "scattered" to below 10%.

.THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

Precip chances were expected to be highest on Thursday, but are
falling consistently from model run to model run. With the cut-
off low beginning to kick- out from the West Coast and a
boundary developing just south of there, likely PoPs are
expected in central Nebraska and eastern Kansas, but only
isolated (10-15%) PoPs are expected in OAX`s southern tier of
counties. Unfortunately, that drier trend holds true for Friday
and the weekend proper, too. Earlier forecasts calling for
50-70% PoPs are long gone. Over the past 24 hours, NBM PoPs at
Omaha for Thursday have slipped from 50% to less than 10%. Now
PoPs hit their zenith on Friday afternoon at 15-25% for areas
southwest of Omaha.

Best chance of precip remain west and south of the area over the
course of Saturday and Sunday, too. The cut-off low out west
will weaken and eject northeast.

With the flooding threat now negligible, we turn our attention
to a severe weather threat. The SPC does not currently have the
area highlighted with any convective concerns over the course of
the next 8 days while machine-learning forecasts from NCAR and
CSU corroborate.

High temps will be slipping over this period from mid-80s on
Thursday to lower-80s for Saturday and Sunday.

Longer range forecasts suggest the beginning of June 2026 will
be warmer than normal as ridging builds back across the central
CONUS. The latest CPC outlook suggests the Omaha metro has a 54%
chance that June 2-8 will end up warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this morning and
will persist through the remainder of the TAF cycle. A line of
showers and thunderstorms have developed just west southwest of
the KOFK terminal. Some thunderstorms may approach the
terminal, but thinking that the bulk of the activity will stay
away. Thereafter, could see some LLWS until 12z.

Southerly winds will remain under 12 kts until mid afternoon
when gustiness of 20-25 kts returns at KOFK and KLNK, largely
subsiding after 00z. Lighter winds at 12 kts or less are
expected for much of the TAF period at KOMA. Expect some mid to
high based clouds throughout the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

631
FXUS63 KGID 260711
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
211 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expecting dry conditions for today, with the breezy winds
  turning more southeasterly. Gusts around 25-30 MPH will be
  possible. Temps look to be a touch cooler than Monday`s low-
  mid 90s...today`s highs are in the upper 80s-near 90.

- Potential for precipitation returns Wednesday afternoon on
  through Thursday...but overall chances have trended down
  compared to 24hrs ago. This is driven by the uncertainty in
  models with the northward progress of an upper level
  disturbance moving out of the Srn Plains. The best chances
  remain focused across the SSWrn half of the forecast area.

- Broad precipitation chances remain in the forecast Friday on
  into early next week...but again uncertainties with how the
  messy, blocked upper level pattern evolves keeps confidence on
  the low side.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Currently...

Outside of the extreme NNWrn fringes of the forecast area
getting clipped by light precipitation...it`s been a quiet
evening-overnight period. Upper level forcing remains on the
weak side...but activity continues, driven by convergence along
the nose of a 40-45kt southerly low-level jet. Looking at the
pattern as a whole across the CONUS, upper air and satellite
data show plenty going on...the main/largest area of low
pressure continues to sink south along the Pac NW coast, while
other areas of low pressure are set up over the Four Corners
region and near the east OK/TX border. A large area of high
pressure is set up just off the coast of the Mid-
Atlantic/Southeast...with a ridge axis extending northwestward
through the Dakotas into central Canada. At the surface, winds
remain southerly and at times gusty, with the main boundaries to
the west and north of the forecast area...though outflow from
those storms to our north are resulting in brief periods of
variable directions.

Today through Wednesday....

Overall not much change in the forecast today and
tonight...which remains dry. Models continue to show that main
upper level low currently along the Pac NW continuing to sink
south while moving inland...with troughing remaining draped
through the Desert SW into TX. By 12Z Wednesday, models are in
decent agreement showing the center of that upper low being
roughly over the central NV/CA border. After breezy SSW winds on
Monday, winds for today turn more to the southeast, thanks to
deepening sfc low pressure over the Nrn Rockies and southward
extending trough axis. Looks to be another breezy day
today...with gusts around 25-30 MPH possible once again. Without
the SWrly component to the winds/increased mixing into a
slightly warmer airmass...today`s highs area touch cooler, with
mid upper 80s-near 90 (vs the low-mid 90s from Monday). Still
well above the normal highs this time of year which are in the
mid 70s-near 80.

More uncertainties in the forecast start to arise as we get into
Wednesday...still with plenty of details to iron out with the
upper air pattern and precipitation chances. Looking big
picture...models are in generally decent agreement...showing the
pattern across the CONUS becoming increasingly blocked with
time. An upper level disturbance sinking southeast out of the
Hudson Bay/Ontario region deepens the troughing across the
eastern CONUS...not allowing for much movement of the ridge axis
extending from the SErn CONUS into the Dakotas or the main low
pressure system wobbling over the NV/CA border area. Forecast
still has increasing precipitation chances creeping north into
the forecast area Wed afternoon-night...though compared to 24hrs
ago the northern extent of higher PoPs has been scaled back.
Models continue to show a lobe of upper level shortwave energy
trying to work its way north out of the western Srn Plains...but
it struggles to make a lot progress because that ridging to its
north. Now that this period is getting more into hi-res models
timeframe...most are showing the coverage of any precipitation
being pretty spotty...like isolated-scattered coverage, mainly
focused from roughly the Tri-Cities and south. Thunderstorms
will be possible...but models are in pretty good agreement
showing both instability and deeper layer shear lacking values
needed for severe weather to be much of a concern. Outside of
the precipitation chances...expecting increasing cloud cover to
also be working its way north...with winds remaining
southeasterly, but speeds look to be a touch lower. Forecast
highs remain in the mid- upper 80s.

Thursday and on...

Compared to 24hrs ago, the most notable change of the forecast
is the downward trend in preciptiation chances for Thursday-
Thursday night...which had widespread 60-80 percent chances, now
sits more in the 30-50 percent range. These chances are still
driven by that shortwave disturbance fighting against the
ridging through the Dakotas and trying to work its way further
north into the Central Plains. With time models show increasing
differences with timing and coverage...that uncertainty driving
down the overall chances. While the better chances are still
across the SWrn half of the forecast area like
Wednesday...unlike Wednesday, there are chances CWA-wide Thu-Thu
night.

For Friday on through the start of the new week...hard to have
much confidence in the forecast. Lot of uncertainties in the
details with the evolution of the upper level pattern...as
models show that large area of low pressure over the western
CONUS filling/weakening, but with the eastern CONUS troughing
not letting up, not much eastward push of things. Big question
is how how the western troughing and central ridging shift
location with time...and where any disturbances working their
way through the flow ultimately track. Can`t argue against the
plentiful generally low (20-30 percent) chances for
precipitation in the forecast Fri-Mon.

Though these precipitation chances includes
thunderstorms...current thinking is that the weaker mid-upper
level flow, weaker deeper layer shear and lack of notable
instability working its way in keeps a threat of widespread
severe weather on the low side. We`ll see how things trend in
the coming days.

As far as temperatures go...not looking at any notable swings in
temperatures with a stopped up pattern, forecast highs Thu-Mon
are mainly upper 70s-low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

It`s a warm afternoon with most areas currently experiencing
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Southerly winds are breezy,
gusting 20-30mph. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible
during the late afternoon-evening hours along the surface trough
in west/central Nebraska. Weak forcing combined with poor shear
(20kts) should limit the potential strength of these storms
despite CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg. Still, a strong to marginally
severe storm (60mph winds, small hail) could develop and impact
areas mainly northwest of the Tri-Cities this evening. Storms
will steadily weaken/dissipate after sunset as stability
increases. Lows in the 50s are expected overnight with partly
cloudy skies.

Tuesday...

Aloft, ridging gradually builds over the area on Tuesday as a
trough/low moves into the west coast and becomes cutoff. Under the
influence of ridging, highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. Another
breezy day is expected, with southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Dry
weather is forecast for Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper level pattern transitions to a messy omega blocking
pattern (trough over west/east coasts, ridge over central U.S.)
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s,
warmest across northern portions of the area. The first wave of
energy moves into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, bringing the
first of potentially several rounds of low confidence, scattered
PoPs to the area. Models have at least some agreement that the first
round of Pops (15-65%) lift into southwestern portions of the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening and continues into
the overnight hours. Models vary how far north/east PoPs make
it, but southwestern portions of have the overall highest
chances. Wednesday night`s band of showers/storms looks to stall
out on Thursday, though model spread varies on where this sets
up. At least a portion of the area could see scattered showers
and storms persisting throughout the day. Highs on Thursday will
depend on storms/cloud coverage, ranging from the 70s in rain
to the 80s in dry/sunny locations.

Friday Onwards...

Beyond the overall atmospheric pattern/setup (Omega block persists),
confidence remains low in the finer details, especially regarding
PoPs. Still, models support/indicate that multiple disturbances are
favored to move into the area throughout this time period. Model
spread results in broad 25-45% PoPs across the area Friday onwards.
As we get closer in time, the timing and location of these chances
will become clearer. Highs will generally be near to above normal,
in the 70s and 80s, though more/less rain may result in slightly
cooler/warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout
the period (only limited mid-high level clouds mainly at/above
10K ft. AGL). Also extremely high confidence in
dry/thunderstorm-free conditions. That leaves winds as the main
aviation issue, including rather breezy surface winds mainly
this afternoon, along with a few more hours of slightly-strong
low level wind shear (LLWS) early this morning.

- Surface winds:
Direction-wise, no major swings anticipated, but there will be a
shift from southerly through the morning...to more southeasterly
this afternoon-evening. For much of the period sustained speeds
will prevail at-or-below 12KT. However, stronger/breezy
conditions will continue initially right away these first few
hours, and then again especially this afternoon...with
particularly 18-00Z featuring sustained speeds commonly
15-20+KT/gusts 24+KT (possibly even pushing 30KT especially at
KEAR).

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
A round of slightly-strong LLWS in in progress, and will
continue to carry in TAFs for a few more hours through 09Z
KEAR/10Z KGRI...after which time the responsible low-level wind
max will weaken and also shift north of the area. In the
meantime, winds within the lowest 1,500 ft. AGL will continue
averaging around 40KT from the south-southwest...resulting in
roughly 30KT of LLWS magnitude.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion