Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

147
FXUS63 KOAX 130415
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1015 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy and warm Tuesday with a 20-40% chance of
  light rain or sprinkles. The gusty winds may lead to localized
  areas of very high fire danger.

- Windy Thursday night and Friday with a 30 to 70% chance of
  wind gusts of at least 45 mph. Highs in the 30s and 40s
  Thursday falling into 20s and 30s by Saturday.

- Highest measurable precipitation chances of 30 to 40% (snow)
  in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa Friday. The snow
  and strong winds could lead to travel impacts (10-30%
  chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level
disturbance moving through the mid MO Valley this afternoon with
a relatively small area of mid/upper-level cloudiness associated
with it`s passage. Temperatures are considerably warmer today
than previous days with readings in the 50s to low 60s as of 3
PM. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows in the 30s
to low 40s.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, a shortwave trough currently
emerging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies is forecast to
amplify as it progresses through the northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing series of vorticity lobes are
expected to settle south through the central Plains and Ozarks.
Increased forcing for ascent tied to those features will
contribute to top-down saturation of the atmosphere, and a
chance of light rain or sprinkles (peak PoPs of 30-40% in
northeast NE) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Some of the
light precipitation could mix with light snow before ending
Tuesday night.

At the surface, the primary cyclone will remain linked to the
lead disturbance well to our northeast; however, a trailing
front will move through the region late tonight into Tuesday
morning. A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the
front will support strong northwest with gusts of 30-40 mph
Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures and the rangeland fire
danger category will be influenced by the extent of cloud cover
and any associated areas of light precipitation. This forecast
update will indicate temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with
rangeland fire danger in the high to locally very high category.


Wednesday and Wednesday night:

This will be an "in-between-systems" day with surface high
pressure quickly building through the area. Winds will remain
breezy from the north with cooler high temperatures in the 30s.


Thursday through Sunday:

A vigorous shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet streak
are forecast to move through the mid MO Valley Thursday and
Thursday night, following by a secondary vorticity ribbon Friday
afternoon into Friday night. In the low levels, a cold front
attendant to the lead wave is expected to move through the area
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. We`ll see a brief
period of warmer temperatures ahead of the front with highs in
the upper 30s and 40s Thursday afternoon. A colder air mass will
filter into the region behind the front with highs falling into
the 30s Friday, 20s and 30s Saturday, and mainly 30s Sunday.

Northwest winds are expected to strengthen considerably behind
the surface front Thursday night into Friday with the 12z EPS
indicating a 30-70% chance of wind gusts of at least 45 mph
Friday. The winds are expected to diminish Friday night.

The 12z global models continue to indicate the best measurable
precipitation chances to our northeast during this time frame
with the highest local PoPs of 30-40% occurring Friday in
northeast NE and west-central IA. Precipitation type at that
time would be snow with the 12z GrandEnsemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS)
indicating a 40-70% chance of at least a tenth of an inch
accumulation. The snow and strong winds could lead to reduced
visibilities and resultant travel impacts (10-30% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. High clouds will pass by overnight with westerly winds
gradually veering to northwesterly. LLWS is expected to continue
at all terminals as northwesterly winds increase to 40-50 kts at
FL015. LLWS will gradually diminish by 13/09-13Z. Northwesterly
winds will increase Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 22-26 kts
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

A few sprinkles/light rain showers are possible (15-30% chance)
Tuesday afternoon. However, a dry sub-cloud layer brings lower
confidence in rain reaching the ground. The best chance of rain
will be at KOFK, with odds leaning more towards virga at KOMA
and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

990
FXUS63 KGID 130913
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
313 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today. Near-critical fire weather conditions
  are expected near and west of Highway 283 (Dawson, Gosper,
  Furnas Counties).

- Rain showers arrive from the north late this afternoon into
  this evening. A few snow showers are possible Wednesday
  morning, but no accumulation is expected.

- Very windy Friday. Widespread gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH
  are expected, and gusts over 60 MPH are possible in some areas
  (30-60% chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Today remains warm, but will be noticably breezier than
yesterday. As such, western portions of the area may see near
critical fire weather conditions (RH 20-25% and northwest winds
gusting over 30 MPH at times.

The potential for measurable rain has increased with the system
arriving from the north today. Areas near and north of I-80 have
the best chance (20-40%) to see 0.10" or more, but the entire
area has a chance to see at least some rain. A few sprinkles are
possible as early as 2-3pm, with more widespread rain arriving
from the north in the 5-6pm timeframe.

The trend has also been for precipitation to linger longer into
Wednesday morning. With temperatures falling, a few snow showers
could mix in, but little to no accumulation is expected.

Winds gradually decrease through the day on Wednesday, but
a front pushes through on Thursday, leading to another uptick
in winds (gusts 25 to 35 MPH).

On Friday a shortwave trough dips southward across the central
U.S. A few snow showers are possible with this system, but the
winds will likely be the more notable hazard. Global ensembles
continue to trend upward with the wind potential, and the EPS
mean wind gust is now near 60 MPH in northwestern portions of
the forecast area. As mentioned above, the NBM now shows a
30-60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 60 MPH for at least parts
of the area. If this trend continues, a High Wind Watch may
become appropriate.

Friday and Saturday still look to be the coldest days, but
Sunday and Monday have also trended a bit cooler as well.
Regardless, global ensembles still favor at least a brief warmup
before another push of cold (and maybe some precipitation) late
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

North to northwestelry flow aloft is anticipated through the
period with multiple (mostly dry) disturbances passing by the
region. The most impactful weather of the week will likely be
the very strong winds anticipated later this week, with gusts to
55 MPH possible on Friday.

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, plenty of cirrus
can be streaming across the local area in northwest flow. Expect
this cloud cover to continue through the overnight hours, which
combined with steady westerly winds, will help keep up low
temperatures mostly in the mid-30s to start the day on Tuesday.
These temperatures will be very close to what are normal highs
for mid-January.

For tomorrow afternoon, expect a cold front to rapidly push
south across the area during the afternoon hours with a weak
disturbance aloft helping aid in the development of a few light
showers/sprinkles. Overall, QPF amounts look very minimal (T-a
few hundredths of an inch of precip), but most models have some
light QPF being generated across the local area, and increased
pops just a bit as fully expect some showers and sprinkles
around much of the local area mainly during the afternoon/early
evening hours...although some light showers/sprinkles/flurries
could extend across the northern parts of our forecast area to
start the day Wednesday as indicated in the global models.

Beyond Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes even more
amplified as high pressure expanding north across the west coast
results in a more northerly flow pattern across the plains. As
a result, after a brief uptick in temps Thursday, a more
prolonged stretch of cooler weather returns Friday through
Monday before the longwave trough attempts to shift further
east towards the middle of next week, when a more
northwesterly/mild flow returns. In the meantime, as this push
of colder air makes its way across the area on Friday, expect a
very windy afternoon across the region and will need to continue
to monitor as wind gusts to 55 MPH currently look like the most
impactful weather of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period, though sub-VFR
conditions are possible (30%) Tuesday evening in rain showers.

LLWS will develop over the next few hours as winds strengthen
aloft. LLWS persists into the mid morning hours till surface
winds increase. Sustained Northwest winds around 15kts and
gusts around 25kts are possible throughout most of the
afternoon. Gusts fall to around 20kts during the evening and
persist through the end of the TAF period.

Scattered rain showers/sprinkles are possible from the late
afternoon through the end of the TAF period. After sunset, these
scattered showers/sprinkles could contain MVFR ceilings, though
prevailing MVFR conditions are not expected at this time. Have
indicated this possibility with PROB30 groups.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion