Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

422
FXUS63 KOAX 281845
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
145 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire danger today with south-southwest winds gusting
  35 to 45 mph and RH falling into the teens and possibly
  single digits. High to very high fire danger will persist on
  Sunday.

- 60s return Saturday, followed by 70s and 80s Sunday into
  Monday. Cooler thereafter with 50s and 60s into next weekend.

- Light rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday (20-40%) with more
  widespread precipitation now favored to hold off until Friday
  or Saturday (40-60% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad but low-
amplitude ridge slowly progressing eastward from the Intermountain
West into the High Plains, while northwesterly flow remains across
the eastern half. Surface observations reveal little in terms of
nearby boundaries, with stout high pressure over the Ohio River
Valley squashing the northern extent of any moisture at the surface
locally and helping to increase the pressure gradient locally. The
18z KOAX sounding features extremely dry air at 850 and 600 mb, with
those clouds at 700 mb showing up in a very thin layer closer to
saturation. Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s this afternoon
have allowed us to mix into the lower levels of that dry air
and drop humidity values to 10-20% , joined by winds that have
sent gusts to 35-45 mph already this afternoon. Over the course
of the afternoon, these dry conditions will continue while those
strong gusts become more widespread, resulting in several hours
of extreme fire danger for the entire area. For this, a Red
Flag Warning is in effect through 9 PM, when temperatures and
wind speeds drop into the overnight hours. Highs in the 60s will
still feel rather chilly thanks to the cutting wind, but
warming over the next couple of days will have us questioning
what season we are in once again.

Sunday and Monday:

The main story to start the week will be increasing temperatures,
brought about by the approaching ridge that helps build low-level
warmth across the High Plains that spreads eastward during the
afternoon hours Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday are currently slated
to reach the upper 70s to just over 80 across the area, while Monday
eyeballs record maximum temperatures. Here lately when we talk about
warming temperatures, that has included cautionary messaging about
fire danger as well. As of now, Sunday`s winds will quiet by the
time we get warm, with those wind speeds staying subdued Monday as
well. This should keep fire danger limited to very high, and leave
us without another Red Flag Warning despite the heat. Models
generally favor dry conditions through these two days, with the
winds of change arriving overnight into Tuesday to take temps back
down into the 50s and 60s through a good chuck of the remaining
week.

Tuesday and Beyond:

By Tuesday, the aforementioned cold front will have swept through
the forecast area, quickly scouring away low-level moisture and
opening the door for cooler air to pour in from the north. Cooler,
but seasonable temperatures will settle in for the remainder of
the week, driven by a pattern change away from the persistent
ridge over the Desert Southwest. Zonal to southwesterly flow
aloft will take over, with a number of shortwaves moving through
the Great Plains through the latter half of the week. While
this will increase the overall precipitation activity compared
to where we`ve been at over the past few weeks, we`ll still be a
far cry from making any dents in our dry conditions. If you
were to pick a day or two for the best chances for widespread
rain, the first comes as a shortwave deepens to the south of the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will clip
southeast Nebraska with less than 0.5" of rainfall, while
temperatures bottom out at or just above freezing, limiting
concerns for slickness. The best chance for widespread rainfall
for the area arrives Friday afternoon next week, where a deep,
positively-tilted trough cuts off to the southwest of the area
and lingers into Saturday. Model solutions aren`t quite sure if
there will a considerable dry punch after the initial rain
chances associated with the front edge of the wave leaves the
area, keeping confidence limited as to just how much rain we
could get. Nonetheless, even a widespread quarter to half inch
of rainfall would go a very long way to help kick start the
spring green-up that has been lagging behind our warm
temperatures so far this year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the next 24
hours, where attention is focused on winds during the afternoon
hours. Those winds are hanging around 25-29 kts sustained while
gusts reach to 35-40 kts at their peak this afternoon while
mid/high clouds waft overhead. Winds will start slowing this
evening around 00z, decreasing overnight while strong winds
remain at FL014, resulting in low-level wind shear for all three
terminals. By 14z, wind shear will dissipate and quieter
conditions with occasional gusts to 20 kts near KLNK will settle
in for the remainder for the morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

     .......Monday, March 30th..........

     ...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD

Lincoln, NE.. 87F .... 88 in 1917
Omaha, NE.... 87F .... 89 in 1968
Tekamah, NE . 86F .... 81 in 2015
Falls City .. 88F .... 90 in 1986
Norfolk, NE . 85F .... 87 in 1968
Valley, NE... 85F .... 78 in 2012

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen
CLIMATE...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

740
FXUS63 KGID 281722
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds today gusting as high as 40-45MPH on top of
  dry conditions will provoke widespread critical fire weather
  concerns.

- A Red Flag Warning will be in effect area-wide from 9AM until
  10PM today. For more information regarding the fire weather
  potential, please refer to fire weather section below.

- Temperatures in the 60s today will continue to warm into the
  upper 70s and 80s for Sunday and the 80s for Monday. A cold
  front Tuesday will then drop highs back to the 50s to low 60s
  through Thursday.

- Off-and-on precipitation chances linger between the period
  Monday night through the end of the week. The next best chance
  (20-40%) lies Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds recently turning to a southerly direction this morning,
following the exit of a midwest bound surface high pressure center,
will soon be expected to speed up. Wind speeds later this morning
and for much of the day should range between 20-30MPH with gusts as
high as 40-45MPH. The stronger surface winds today have fallen in
line as surface pressure falls along the northern Rockies have
compressed the local surface pressure gradient. The ongoing dry
conditions (single digit to low 20s dewpoints) paired with these
gusty winds will lead to widepsread critical fire weather concerns
today. A red flag warning will be in place areawide today from 9AM
to 10PM. Fore more information regarding the fire weather potential,
please refer to the fire weather section below.

The southerly warm air advecting winds combined with mostly clear
skies will help lift temperatures up into the 60s to low 70s this
afternoon. Winds, much lighter for Sunday (gusts 

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion