Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

825
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather redevelops as clouds thin out today, with
  additional areas of freezing fog possible tonight (30%
  chance) along a line from O`Neill to Beatrice.

- A cooler Friday is forecast, with chances for a wintry mix
  (15-25%) pushing into northeast Nebraska during the afternoon,
  before dissipating to the southeast after 6 PM.

- Temperatures quickly rebound into the 40s and 50s this weekend
  with largely dry and warmer-than-average weather into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a broad area of lift
entering the Intermountain West to the east of its associated
trough, while northwesterly flow over the central CONUS spills
in behind the trough exiting the eastern third. A stubborn deck
of stratus overhangs the eastern Nebraska into Iowa, depicted in
Nighttime Microphysics imagery, and is also harboring areas of
freezing fog from Neligh into north-central Nebraska. With
temperatures in the lower 20s, some slickness is possible as the
fog tries to freeze to surfaces through the morning, but most
of the slippery conditions should stay west of the area where
visibilities are at less than a mile. Expect these areas of fog
to dissipate within a few hours of sunrise this morning, with
the deck of stratus thinning a bit but still sticking around
while wafting slightly to the northeast by this afternoon. Highs
today should clear up any areas of slickness from the morning
hours as they warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Overnight,
another wind shift will bring a northwesterly winds and steeper
lapse rates at the surface, with short-term models suggesting
that another area of fog/drizzle could set up once again, only
this time being along a line from O`neill to Beatrice.
Temperatures will once again be falling into the twenties while
this occurs, meaning limited slickness is possible with any
areas of freezing fog or drizzle.

A newer curiosity for the forecast compared to ones previous is a
local center of low pressure that is set to waft through the area
Friday. This weak system will be aided by a shortwave trough passing
through the northwesterly flow, with the column gradually becoming
saturated over the course of the day. Cooler temperatures are
forecast tomorrow through the day (topping out in the low-to-mid
30s), leading many CAMs to depict the arc of precipitation to be a a
wintry mix. Dendrites aloft should be present based on soundings,
but potent warm-air advection from the previous days will have a
stout warm nose at 800 mb, either fully melting or partially melting
things as they fall. As of now, northeast Nebraska looks to be the
best location to see stronger upper-level support, with additional
lift dissipating as it moves southeastward through eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. Those locations in northeast Nebraska
could see a light glaze of ice and a dusting of partially-
melted snow pellets if things pan out and overcome dry low-level
air (15-30% chance). Areas to the south and east may see a
trace of precipitation, but it will likely not be detectable and
non-impactful. All in all, timing has the precipitation chances
entering northeast Nebraska by noon, struggling to push
southeast much through the afternoon, and dissipating while
finally moving southeast during the evening.

Saturday and Beyond:

After our cooler Friday, any areas of slickness that do develop
won`t last very long Saturday as temperatures rebound and the
aforementioned ridge to the west of the area arrives. Highs will
reach into the 40s to near 50 degrees, driven by downslope flow that
builds a thermal ridge up the southern and central High Plains.
Temps see another bump heading into Sunday with increasing winds
that will be poised to gust into the 25-35 mph day, while dry
weather continues. For the first half of the work week, quasi-zonal
flow will describe the mid/upper pattern with somewhat discontinuous
jet streaks keeping any northward expansion of gulf moisture from
occurring. Above-normal temperatures are currently forecast for
much of the work week, though there is nearly 10 degrees of
spread between the most likely envelope of temperatures with
room for a slightly cooler outlook than is in the current
forecast. While dry weather currently looks most likely, several
shortwaves do move through our zonal flow that could serve as
candidates for very light (but likely non-impactful)
precipitation. Thursday and Friday next week will be the days to
watch, where some long-range solutions depict a lee cyclone
ejecting northeastward from the TX/NM region. Large differences
in the timing and orientation/tilt of the trough powering this
system signal for us to stay skeptical for now, but it will be
well worth focusing on as we get closer to its arrival.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Cloud cover continues to be stickier than previous forecast,
with the TAFs lingering MVFR conditions through much of the
morning before beginning to scatter out closer to noon. Winds
are expected to stay relatively light at less than 10 kts, with
directions generally becoming east-southeasterly through the
first half of the forecast. Clouds will try to fill back in
overnight near KLNK and points northwest, with areas of freezing
fog becoming possible along a line from KBIE to KONL after 06z
and the worst conditions staying just west of KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

836
FXUS63 KGID 011149
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lots of cloud cover and modestly cooler temperatures
  (40s/50s) anticipated behind a cold front today. A reinforcing
  shot of cooler air will bring the coolest day of the period
  to the local area Friday (30s/40s).

- A small chance for light rain or snow possible mainly north of
  Highway 92 Friday afternoon/evening. Little to no
  precipitation accumulation is expected.

- Well above normal temperatures return this weekend and will
  likely linger through much of next week.

- Long term guidance continues to indicate a potential return to
  a more active weather pattern towards the end of next week or
  weekend, but still plenty of uncertainty and low confidence.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 402 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Cloudy skies overtook the region overnight with some patchy fog
embedded behind a backdoor cold front. While most areas
continue to have good visibilities, a few spots along the
leading edge of this front have seen visibilities below 1 mile
at times. Expect some erosion of this cloud cover and fog,
especially on the western edge, by early afternoon as light
winds this morning shift and become southwesterly at 5 to 10 mph
by late morning. Given the cloud cover and modestly cooler
airmass, afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler to start
the new year, but still remain 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
norms.

For tonight, expect a reinforcing shot of cooler air to
infiltrate the area from the north, resulting in another round
of some patchy for possible for Friday morning. This cooler
airmass should also drop temperatures down closer to seasonal
norms to end the week, with many locations (especially east of
Highway 281) likely not climbing out of the 30s Friday
afternoon. In addition, there will be a small chance for some
light precip across our north Friday afternoon/evening, but this
looks like a minimal QPF event at best with little to no
precipitation accumulation.

Surface winds then shift again and become westerly over the
upcoming weekend, ushering in well above normal temperatures
that will likely continue through at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
 CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- In the shorter term, these next couple days (Thurs-Fri) will
  likely be "pesky" regarding various forecast
  elements...including: cloud cover and fog potential (and
  resultant impact on high temps), and also the possibility of a
  light round of precip (snow or a wintry mix) Friday afternoon-
  evening mainly in northern counties. This light precip
  potential is not currently in our official forecast, but needs
  monitored.

- For the Saturday-Wednesday stretch, it`s mainly just a
  "temperature forecast" as our forecast remains dry with fairly
  high confidence. This latest forecast update certainly has no
  major temperature changes, but for those watching closely: highs
  for Saturday and Mon-Tues trended up a few degrees, while
  highs Sunday actually trended down 3-6 degrees.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed Jan. 7):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
Kudos to preceding night shifter for nudging up high temps for
today, as they not only reached those values but exceeded by a
few degrees more...with most of our forecast area (CWA) on track
to top out between 59-64. At Grand Island/Hastings airports (our
two official climate records sites): This was Grand Island`s
warmest New Year`s Eve/Dec. 31st in 26 years (since
1999)...Hastings actually ended up tying it`s Dec. 31st RECORD
HIGH of 61 (first set in 1956)!

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that our region
resides under large-scale northwesterly flow...directed between
a large-scale trough centered near the Great Lakes...and a
large-scale ridge axis generally aligned over the Rockies. At
the surface, today`s very mild temps have been driven by
modestly-breezy west-northwest winds (sustained at least 10-15
MPH/gusts at least 15-25 MPH this afternoon) and resultant
downslope/warming flow, along with almost pristine/full
sunshine. Unfortunately, the slightly over-achieving
temperatures have helped to give rise to "near-critical" fire
weather conditions for roughly the western 2/3rds of our CWA,
but this threat will subside after 5 PM as cooling commences.


- TONIGHT:
We begin a 36-48 stretch that will FOR SURE feature chillier
weather, but that also features a decent amount of uncertainty
in various elements including cloud cover, fog potential and
temps. In the big picture, a strong surface high/ridge nosing
down through MN/IA will help drive a classic "backdoor" cold
front down into our CWA out of the north-northeast. As of this
writing, an expansive deck of low clouds (with some light fog at
least along/near its leading edge) is located only about 100
miles north-northeast of the northern edges of our CWA, and is
on a steady approach. Leaning on these latest satellite trends
and short-term model relative humidity (RH) data, this mass of
low clouds will likely enter our far north-northeast counties by
8-9 PM, its arrival marked by a switch to more northerly
breezes gusting at least 15-20 MPH for a few hours. As the night
wears on, these low clouds will continue through our central
CWA, but eventually more or less "stall out" over our
western/southern counties as surface breezes become lighter and
turn more easterly/southerly. The "million dollar question" at
least in terms of potentially impactful weather is whether (or
not) much fog will try forming especially along/near the edges
of this low cloud mass. Recent runs of higher-res visibility
progs from models such as HRRR/RAP have fluctuated regarding the
areal coverage/density of possible fog, but at least a narrow
band of fog seems probable to develop within especially our
western/southern counties especially after 3 AM, some of which
MIGHT be localized dense (visibility down around 1/4 mile).
Although forecast confidence in fog trends is admittedly low at
this time, decided to introduce the possibility for at least
localized dense fog to our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Temp-wise,
lows were changed little, with most of the CWA aimed 21-25.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME:
Happy New Year...and "happy" cool down! Although forecast
confidence in "exact details" continues to run on the lower
side, the general expectation is that the day will start with
fairly extensive lower clouds and at least "some fog"
(particularly in a narrow zone near the edges of the lowest
stratus in our southern/western zones). However, as surface/low
level winds start to pick up speed by mid-late morning out of
the south-southwest (sustained speeds 10-15 MPH/gusts around
20), the low clouds should steadily lift/vacate from west-to-
east and any fog should dissipate. However, even as lower clouds
vacate there will be plentiful high level cirrus clouds moving
in from the west. The net result will be an overall mostly
cloudy day for most areas. Last but not least, the afternoon
high temperature forecast is a bit tricky, as the influence of
the backdoor cold front, along with plentiful clouds, all but
assures that it will be at least 10-15 degrees cooler than today
(some places pushing 20 cooler). However, there will also surely
be a decent east (cooler) to west (warmer) gradient. Leaning on
a multi-model blend, ended up nudging up highs 2-3 degrees from
previous forecast...now aimed from low 40s far east...to mid-
upper 40s central...to low-mid 50s far west.


- THURSDAY NIGHT:
Although not currently in our official forecast, there are
increasing signs that at least the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA
could see a return of low clouds (and possibly fog?) as another
weak/reinforcing cold front slides back in from the north/east
on light breezes...this will be something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, low temps aimed 23-28 most places.


- FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT:
In some ways, at least somewhat of a "repeat" of Thursday...as
the day will likely start with a batch of low cloud and/or fog
(mainly east), which would vacate but there would again be
plenty of mid-high clouds as well. Furthermore, (and unlike
Thursday), there is even some slight potential for what would
likely be a round of light snow or a light wintry mix especially
Friday afternoon-evening...most favoring our northern
counties...as an upper wave passes by in the west-northwest flow
aloft. For now, our official forecast remains "dry" due to
precip chances (PoPs) topping out only around 10 percent, but
later forecasts may very well have to add some official precip
mention (or at the very least flurries). Temperature-wise,
another tricky day depending on cloud trends (and the fairly
light east-southeasterly winds won`t help warming much either).
Kept highs similar to previous...aiming from only mid-upper 30s
northeast...to near-40 central...to as warm as upper
40s/near-50 far southwest.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
In short, we return to what "in theory" is a more
straightforward forecast with fewer chances for low clouds/fog
and more "warming-favorable" winds out of mainly the west (Sat)
and south (Sunday...which looks to be the breezier of the two
days). Sunday also looks to be the cloudier of the two days
(mainly high level), which likely explains to some degree why
temps have trended down some. All in all though, the vast
majority of the CWA should see highs rebound into the 50s, with
some 60s especially far southwest on Sunday.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ALthough the latest ECMWF hints at some spotty light shower
potential around Tues night-Wed AM with a weak upper wave,
overall model consensus clearly supports keeping the forecast
dry for now as the Central Plains resides under fairly benign
quasi-zonal (west-east) flow aloft. If anything, high temps were
nudged up slightly, but overall most of the CWA aimed somewhere
in the 50s all three days...with some low 60s possible
especially far south-southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

LIFR conditions expected through around 01/15Z...with improving
conditions this afternoon and a repeat of potential fog
formation again late tonight (aft 02/06Z).

For this morning, expect LIFR CIGS/VSBY to continue in patchy
dense fog that will impact the terminals off and on through at
least 01/15Z. Thereafter...light surface winds should turn more
west to southwesterly...helping to scour out the lower cloud
cover and VSYBS...with VFR conditions expected for the
afternoon hours. A secondary front will move across the area
tonight, ushering low clouds (MVFR or lower) during the
overnight hours along with the potential of additional fog
formation aft 02/06Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SR
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion