54°F
Updated:
4/8/2026
11:13:06pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
352 FXUS63 KOAX 082320 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern continues with several chances of showers and thunderstorms through the start of next week. - There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms Friday afternoon/evening and again on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A cold front continues to push south across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon. Winds have been gusty this afternoon as the front has moved through. They should decrease, becoming light and variable this evening. A few light showers may kick off along the front this afternoon. There is a slightly better chance this evening for a few showers or perhaps thunderstorms, particularly for areas along and south of the interstate. The front will stall along the Kansas/Nebraska border tonight. Heading into Thursday morning, additional chances (20-50%) for a few showers are expected along the front. A shortwave trough will move into the region, helping kick off additional showers and storms while the front lifts slightly into the region. There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe storms for tomorrow afternoon/evening for areas along and south of the front. All hazards would be possible. The one concern for an all hazards scenario for tomorrow will be any impacts from morning shower activity. If the atmosphere gets worked over pretty well, that would help limit the possibility for severe weather a bit. The front will remain over the southern part of the area into the weekend. Friday brings additional chances for showers and storms along with highs in the 60s. The front is expected to lift back north heading into the latter portions of the weekend. There is still some uncertainty about the potential severe weather threat for Monday; however the set up is looking favorable for at least a few showers and storms, some of which may be severe. This will be a day to keep an eye on as we get closer to it. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A cold front has moved through the area, resulting in gusty north to northwest winds this afternoon and evening. Wind speeds are beginning to decrease late this evening and are expected to become light after sunset. Light north to northeast winds occur overnight. Winds become easterly as a warm front begins to develop to the south of the area late Thursday morning and afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated near the warm front Thursday afternoon and evening. At this time, the majority of this activity is anticipated to remain south of area terminals until at least 21Z. Showers and thunderstorms may then begin to impact LNK and OMA by the end of this forecast period. Decreasing ceilings to MVFR may also begin to result in aviation impacts late in the forecast period also. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
651 FXUS63 KGID 082312 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 612 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface cold front continues to sink south through the area this afternoon...late this afternoon-early this evening, there will be the potential for thunderstorms to fire along this boundary. Though affecting a small portion of the area, a few storms could be strong-marginally severe, large hail/damaging wind being the primary hazards. - Thursday afternoon-evening will bring another round of thunderstorms along a surface frontal boundary...mainly affecting SSE portions of the area. Strong-severe storms will again be possible, and the SPC Day 2 outlook now has a Slight Risk area (2 out of 5) that includes portions of south central NE and north central KS. Large hail/damaging wind would again be the primary hazards. - More southwesterly flow aloft develops across the region this weekend into next week...with the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances and chances for precipitation. Plenty of details to iron out with the timing/location of these disturbances...along with the potential for strong-severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Currently through tonight... Satellite and upper air data this afternoon is showing an area of upper low pressure making its way east across ND, with troughing extending south into NE...another weaker shortwave disturbance is making its way through the eastern Srn Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS, another larger low is spinning just off the CA/WA coast, with weaker/broad ridging across portions of both coasts. The main impact for our forecast area from this system has been with the accompanying surface cold front, which continues to push south here at mid-afternoon...only having the last quarter or so to get through. Gusty north-northeast winds have spread across the area behind the front...at times between 30-35 MPH. As expected, the timing of the front has resulted in quite a temperature gradient...with mid 50s currently in the far N to mid 70s in the SSE. Have had some isolated-scattered returns across southern portions of the area throughout the day...but with temp/dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees in spots, unlikely that much/if any has been reaching the ground. Still looking at the potential for thunderstorm development late this afternoon- early this evening along that boundary...affecting a pretty small portion of our forecast area, with hi-res models showing the main threat remaining in the SE corner of our north central KS counties. With dewpoints in the 30s- around 40, certainly not a ton of instability to work with...SPC meso page currently showing an axis of around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE nosing into the area, may see a slight increase through the rest of the afternoon...with the potential of shear to increase into the 30- 40kt range. Can`t rule out a few storms being on the strong- marginally severe side...hail is a concern, as are winds with the drier air in the lower levels. Main threat should also be fairly short-lived as the front continues to sink a bit further south into KS (though not too far). Through the rest of the overnight hours, there are still some uncertainty with lingering chances for elevated precipitation north of the sfc front. Kept chances on the low side (20-30 percent), and will admit the coverage is likely too broad, but with differences between models with location couldn`t trim chances too much. Looks like the better chances will be in that 09-12Z period. Not expecting any of this activity to be strong- severe. Thursday... Have precipitation chances lingering into the morning hours on Thursday, gradually shifting to the east along the edge of the LLJ...again the coverage of PoPs may be too broad with coverage looking to be on the isolated-scattered side, but models vary with just when/where activity develops/shifts. Focus through the rest of the day turns to the next upper level disturbance...models showing a broader shortwave trough sliding into the Nrn Rockies tonight, then further SE onto the Nrn/Central Plains during the day on Thursday. Ahead of this disturbance, deepening sfc low pressure over eastern CO will help to pull the frontal boundary which stalls out near I-70 tonight back north...it again being the focus for thunderstorm development later in the afternoon. Models are showing this warm front not making a ton of northward progress, as this approaching upper level is bringing along a reinforcing cold front. From roughly mid-afternoon on, and moreso after 00Z once the LLJ ramps up, thunderstorm chances ramp back up...with models in decent agreement showing the best potential again across SSE portions of the forecast area. Along/south of this frontal boundary, models are showing the potential for dewpoints to climb into the low 50s...aiding in better instability (MUCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg are possible), with deeper layer shear again around 30-40kts. Concern remains for some storms to be strong-severe, mainly south of HWY 6-north central KS and along/east of HWY 281...and SPC upgraded this area to a Slight Risk (2 out of 5)...the Marginal Risk area (1 out of 5) is spread further north/west. Large hail/winds remain the primary threats. Through the overnight hours, models show the wave moving through and the LLJ veering more by around midnight...so while the potential remains for some activity to linger on through the overnight hours...confidence is not overly high there is going to be much of it (plenty of differences between models still). Friday on into early next week... Thursday`s reinforcing cold front looks to bring cooler Friday, remaining the coolest overall day of this 7-day period. We`ll see how models trend in the coming days...but recent runs suggest the current forecast precip chances may be too high/widespread, potentially set up between Thursday`s departing system to the east and some shortwave upper level ridging to the west ahead of a larger scale system digging along the West Coast. Clouds/lingering precip will also play a role in highs on Friday...so their trends will matter, but current forecast calls for highs in the mid 50s-near 60, so near-normal for this time of year. As we get into the weekend and the first half of the new work week...models continue to show the potential for a more active pattern/precipitation chances. In the upper levels, low pressure digging south along the West Coast and eventually further inland will be bringing more southwesterly flow to the central CONUS...with periodic shortwave disturbances ejected out ahead bringing precipitation chances to the forecast area. While each day Saturday through Tuesday has chances in the forecast...not expecting a multi-day washout...just hard to have a ton of confidence in the exact timing/location details, especially the further out in time you go. It`s not out of the question that some of these chances may get greatly reduced depending on their track, putting the better potential outside the forecast area. These disturbances will bring along the potential for strong- severe storms...at this point models suggest that better chances will focus south and east of our area, but again we`ll see how things trend the next few days. As far as temperatures go, highs are forecast to climb back into the 70s-80s for the weekend and Monday...with the potential for a cooler push Tue-Wed with highs back in the 50s-60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Overall, VFR conditions are favored through the period. The only exception would be with any thunderstorms late Thursday morning through early afternoon (30% chance). Winds turn to the east for Thursday with gusts in the 20-25kt range at times. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Mangels
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