Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

878
FXUS63 KOAX 280522
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire danger Saturday with south-southwest winds
  gusting 35 to 50 mph and RH falling into the teens and
  possibly single digits. High to very high fire danger will
  persist on Sunday.

- 60s return Saturday, followed by 70s and 80s Sunday into
  Monday. Cooler thereafter with 50s and 60s into next weekend.

- Light rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday (20-40%) with more
  widespread precipitation now favored to hold off until Friday
  or Saturday (40-60% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Pretty quiet across the region late this evening as surface
high pressure was building in and leading to clear skies and
light winds. This will set up for a cool night with lows in the
lower to mid 20s for most and perhaps a few teens as you go
farther east into IA.

The cooler weather and light winds will be short-lived, as the
high pushes southeast of the area by early Saturday morning with
a tightening pressure gradient ahead of surface low pressure
east of the Rockies leading to quickly strengthening southerly
flow for Saturday. This will usher in warmer air with
temperatures topping out in the 60s to around 70 on Saturday. It
will also remain quite dry with RH falling into the lower teens
and perhaps a few single digits. Model soundings show 30-40 kts
throughout the mixed layer during the day with EPS and HREF
guidance suggesting mean gusts in the 35-45 mph range. A few
spots in at least northeast NE could even touch 50 mph at times,
especially in the morning as mixing starts and before the low
level jet weakens. As a result, we`ll have widespread extreme
fire danger and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the
entire area from 9 AM through 10 PM.

Winds will decrease significantly overnight into Sunday as the
surface low edges eastward and the pressure gradient relaxes.
However, the continued southerly flow (some gusts around 20 mph)
will warm us even further, with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s. With RH falling into the 20s for most of the area, we could
have another day of high to very high fire danger, but not
looking like a Red Flag day. Monday will be even warmer as
temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s with a few spots
possibly making a run at 90 (some record highs may be
tied/broken). A few pieces of guidance hint at some light QPF
Monday as some weak shortwave energy slides through. However,
looking at model soundings, the low levels remain extremely dry
with cloud bases around 10,000 ft, so it would be tough for
anything to reach the ground. That said there is a little
elevated instability, so can`t completely rule out an isolated
shower/storm (10% chance).

The main story Tuesday will be a cold frontal passage, though
there remains quite a bit of spread in guidance regarding
timing, which will significantly impact temperatures during the
day. The overall trend has been toward a faster passage, meaning
only far southeast NE has a shot at reaching 70 degrees before
temperatures start falling through the day. The 60 degree line
is currently progged to run along a Lincoln to Omaha line, with
areas to the northwest likely only topping out in the 50s very
early in the day. Guidance continues to suggest potential for
some rain along and behind the front Tuesday, though consensus
would favor it being pretty light and spotty (20-40% chance of a
few hundredths). In addition, it does look fairly breezy behind
the front (30+ mph), which may yield some fire weather
concerns, but it will depend on precip and timing, as the
earlier passage would suggest strongest winds will occur in the
morning while RH is higher.

The remainder of the week still looks to bring a pattern shift
with larger scale upper level troughing building in over the
western CONUS leaving us under southwesterly flow aloft instead
of northwesterly/ridging. We may get a few bits of weak
shortwave energy to slide through Wednesday/Thursday and give us
some light precip (20-40% chance), but guidance has trended
toward drier conditions for those days, and instead hold off on
the more widespread precip chances as the larger scale trough
starts to push in Friday/Saturday. There remains a lot of spread
on track and timing, and therefore, precip amounts, but chances
still peak in the 40-60% range late next week/next weekend.
While it should be mostly rain, depending on timing and track,
we could see some snow mix in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle
with a few passing clouds at 9,000 ft or higher. Will see winds
become gusty from the south by the mid morning and afternoon
hours with gusts of 35 to 40 kts. Winds weaken some by 00z but
should still see gusts of 20 to 25 kts through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

     .......Monday, March 30th..........

     ...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD

Lincoln, NE.. 88F .... 88 in 1917
Omaha, NE.... 87F .... 89 in 1968
Tekamah, NE . 86F .... 81 in 2015
Falls City .. 88F .... 90 in 1986
Norfolk, NE . 86F .... 87 in 1968
Valley, NE... 86F .... 78 in 2012

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo
CLIMATE...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

306
FXUS63 KGID 280546
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds return on Saturday. Gusts of 40-45 MPH are
  expected.

- Combined with the wind, continued low humidity will result in
  another day of widespread critical fire weather conditions. A
  Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire area.

- Exceptional warmth returns Sunday and Monday, followed by a
  strong cold frontal passage on Tuesday.

- Low chances (20-40%) for light precipitation return Tuesday-
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Dry conditions continue through the weekend and into early next
week. The primary weather impact this weekend will be gusty
south winds on Saturday. Gusts over 40 MPH are likely (70%
chance), and there is even a low chance (10%) for gusts over 50
MPH. Saturday will trend warmer...but not particularly warm by
recent standards. High temperatures in the 60s to low 70s
(warmest in the west) are expected.

The upper ridge moves overhead Sunday into Monday, allowing high
temperatures return to the 80s. Some locations could even make
another run at 90 on Monday.

Probably the most significant change is that temperatures have
trended 15-20 degrees cooler for Tuesday due to faster timing of
the cold front. Previously, the consensus was for highs in the
70s...but now it looks like most of the area will be stuck in
the 50s.

Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with an
upper shortwave trough moving through. Unfortunately, this
isn`t likely to be widespread or particularly heavy. The
probability for even 0.25" is relatively low at only 20-30%, and
it is very possible that some spots miss out entirely. A
mixture of rain and snow is possible at times, but no winter
impacts are expected.

Low PoPs linger through Thursday, but this period is trending
drier as we will potentially be in-between systems. After a
cool day on Wednesday, temperatures rebound a bit Thursday into
Friday. Additional rain chances return as another system moves
through the area Friday into Saturday, but details remain
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period with only minimal cloud cover. Main
concern will be strong winds through most, if not all, of the
daytime hours Saturday. Winds have turned to the SE, and will
steadily pick up through the morning. Expect a noticeable jump
in speeds by mid to late morning, and winds will be strong -
sustained 25-30kt, gusts around 40kt, out of the S - through
the afternoon. Winds will decrease around sunset, but still
remain breezy...and despite the breezy surface winds Sat night,
expect a strong low level jet to lead to some low level wind
shear beginning around 02-03Z. Confidence: High.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The main day of concern with regards to fire weather is
Saturday. Low humidity today will have pretty poor recovery
overnight. Humidity may only be in the 30-40% range at sunrise
on Saturday, with south winds already starting to increase. As
mentioned above, widespread gusts near 45 MPH are expected.
Humidity will ultimately dip to the 10-15% range in most areas
by Saturday afternoon. Conditions will be slow to improve
Saturday evening, but winds will eventually back off to only
10-20 MPH Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday will feature highs in the 80s. Returning
moisture could help eastern areas from seeing critical
humidity, but the western half will remain very very dry.
Fortunately, winds will be significantly lighter than on
Saturday, only resulting an elevated to near-critical fire
weather threat.

The front has trended faster for Tuesday. It will remain windy,
but cooler temperatures and higher humidity will hopefully
prevent another widespread critical fire weather day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion