Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

497
FXUS63 KOAX 112326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot and dry weather will last through at least the
  upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Patchy fog may develop a few mornings this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Pretty quiet across the area today as a shortwave trough was pushing
off to the southeast and large-scale upper level ridging was
building in. While there were a few clouds around, they were
showing signs of dissipating as the ridge was building in, with
temperatures as of 1 PM mostly in the mid 80s.

As the ridge amplifies through the week, we`ll continue a warming
trend, with widespread highs in the 90s by Monday, with a few spots
making a run at 100, especially near the NE/SD border where warmer
air aloft will be present. While guidance keeps the primary plume of
70+ dewpoints mostly to our east, we all know what corn can do this
time of year, so think we`ll have at least mid to upper 60s
dewpoints across a good chunk of the area most days. This will allow
heat indices to climb toward 100. We`ll see how things trend in the
coming days, but if dewpoints end up being higher, we may see a day
or two reaching heat advisory criteria.

By late in the week, guidance suggests the primary ridge axis will
slide back west while the warmer air aloft pushes slightly southward
as a shortwave trough rounds the top of the ridge. Consensus
suggests we`ll continue to warm with highs in the mid to upper 90s
and few 100s, but given our proximity to the shortwave, not highly
confident in that, as some clouds, or even precip could clip the
area. For now, precip chances remain below 10%, but we`ll definitely
want to keep an eye on trends, as temperatures could be impacted.

Otherwise, another thing to keep an eye on will be patchy fog on
some mornings given light winds and clear skies. At this time, model
soundings suggest winds aloft will stay up a bit compared to this
morning, so wouldn`t expect widespread development. However, with
the extra moisture from evapotranspiration, the potential for at
least a little fog is definitely there.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are in place to start the TAF period, with light
winds at under 10 kts expected to decrease in speed further over
the next 6-8 hours. Direction-wise, they`ll stay out of the
southeast and bottom out below 5 kts, which could favor fog
development once again. Confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time, but if it were to occur,
KOMA/KLNK would be most likely to see it from 10-12z. Otherwise,
winds will increase tomorrow morning but remain in the 5-10 kt
range in terms of speed with little-to-no cloud cover forecast
for tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

288
FXUS63 KGID 112334
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No rain or thunderstorms are expected through at least Friday.

- High temperatures will gradually warm with highs around 90 on
  Sunday to the upper 90s by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This is about as quiet of a weather pattern as you will see with
a significant 500 mb upper level ridge of 590-600dm, which is
anomalously high even for July. The upper level ridge will
establish itself over the northern plains on Sunday and then
gradually recenter further south over Nebraska for most of next
week. This pattern will make it difficult to even see much in
the way of cloud cover through the week ahead so expect sunny,
hot, and dry weather to prevail all week.

Forecast models are indicating lower dewpoints than we would
typically expect this time of year (afternoon dewpoints around
60 later this week). Model dewpoints today have been a bit too
low and am wondering if that model bias will remain the case
this week given the significant widespread crop
evapotranspiration. If our dewpoints end up being a little bit
higher, that will also push our heat index values higher as
well. Consequently, would not be surprised if our currently
forecast heat index values (lower to mid 90s most of the week)
end up being a bit more uncomfortable than currently advertised.
At this point given no expected precipitation, the main forecast
concern will be monitoring the rising temperatures through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clear skies are expected to prevail through the period with VFR
conditions forecast. With somewhat similar conditions as the
night previous expected, there is some concern that patchy fog
may return in places between 8-14z (such as this past morning),
yet the lack of model discernment keeps confidence low for now
(20-30% chance). Winds will again be light with speeds mainly
hanging between 5-10kts. Wind directions should keep their
southerly to southeasterly orientation.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion