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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

FXUS63 KOAX 140842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
342 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.Today and Tonight:

Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a series of mid-level
disturbances tracking through the northern Plains and mid MO
Valley. Associated forcing for ascent has fostered patchy, light
showers over our area as of 3 AM. And latest CAM data suggest that
shower areal coverage may increase through daybreak with a
n-s-oriented light-precipitation band moving from west to east
across our area today. The warmest afternoon temperatures (e.g.,
upper 60s/low 70s) will likely materialize across our western
counties owing to decreasing cloud cover.

Tonight, an MCS is expected to track across KS with a related
warm-advection wing of showers and thunderstorms potentially
spreading into southeast NE and southwest IA.

.Saturday and Sunday:

Some of the Friday night convection could linger into Saturday
morning over southeast NE with generally dry conditions expected
by afternoon. Afternoon temperatures of 70 to 75 are forecast.

On Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave trough is forecast to
move through the northern Plains, enhancing low-level warm/moist
advection over the mid MO Valley. Those forcing mechanisms will
support increasing precipitation chances on Sunday into Sunday
night. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

.Monday through Thursday:

The 00z global models are in reasonably good agreement in
suggesting that a mid/upper-level low over the western U.S. this
weekend will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the
Great Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. While specific model details
regarding the timing and geometry of the trough differ, it`s
emergence into the plains will enhance measurable precipitation
potential, especially from Tuesday into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Band of showers working through the area tonight from northwest to
east has produced very little lightning and thunder. Expect those
showers to push east of the TAF sites by 18Z Friday.

Cigs are dropping and will manage MVFR category by 11Z Friday or
so for much of the area and perhaps below FL010 at KOMA by 20Z

Expecting rain showers to offer very little resistance to
visibility, but guidance continues to suggest reduced visibility
along and east of the Missouri River after 13Z Friday. Have vis
dropping into IFR category at KOMA as a result.





NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

FXUS63 KGID 140848

National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move through the
southern part of the forecast area early this morning.

The entire forecast period looks to be fairly busy. The upper wave
that has brought the current precipitation to the area will move to
the east this morning. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will
continue to move to the east/southeast this morning. A few of the
CAMs have a little development to the north of the current area of
showers and thunderstorms. There are a few weak returns in that area
at this time, but not much yet. Have kept a few lower PoPs in the
east during the morning, but not sure there will be much in that

There are some lower clouds developing to the north/northwest and
expect those to fill in and bring at least partly cloudy skies to
the forecast area during the day. The eastern part of the area will
have a few more and have lowered highs just a little due to the
cloud cover.

The next wave to affect the area will move in during the evening.
This wave is further to the south and the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms will be in north central Kansas and a small part
of south central Nebraska. MUCAPE is over 2000 J/kg in the southwest
part of the area. Overnight, the precipitation chances move a little
further to the north. A weaker wave will follow in behind the main
wave and there should be some showers and thunderstorms across the
area on Saturday. There is a little CAPE in the far south Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night, so the storms could be strong to
severe in north central Kansas again Saturday night.

Another upper level wave moves into the area for Sunday and Sunday
night. The CAPE is a little further to the south and although there
will be some showers and thunderstorms, severe chances look to be a
little less.

Monday through Thursday there will be an upper level low moving out
of the southwest CONUS and into the plains. There will be several
upper level waves that move through the area. Timing the waves and
the location of better chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
difficult. Really do not expect there to be rain all of the time,
but there will likely be some around much of the time. It looks like
it will be on and off chances for thunderstorms much of the week. By
Thursday, the upper low is starting to edge out of the area, but if
it slows down any, it will still be moving through.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

There could be a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm through the
night, but not convinced there will be much for thunderstorms at
the terminals. Ceilings will lower and be MVFR for a time this
morning, but should increase and become more scattered during the





NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion