Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

422
FXUS63 KOAX 152327
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very High Fire Danger is forecast in parts of northeast
  Nebraska today, and will span the entire forecast area on
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  rising into the 70s by Tuesday.

- A more active pattern returns late Tuesday through the end of
  the week, with cooling temperatures and multiple chances for
  light rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today through Tuesday...

Dense fog developed across far southeast Nebraska and western Iowa,
this morning, primarily where moisture pooled after Saturday`s light
rainfall. Temperatures dropped into the 20s under clear skies over
northeast Nebraska. The blanket of patchy dense fog kept lows in the
30s across the southern half of the forecast area.

A subtle ridge of high pressure will develop over the central CONUS
today, bringing another day of well above normal temperatures. Highs
this afternoon will push well into the mid 60s today, with a few
locations possibly reaching 70.

Prevailing dry conditions over northeast Nebraska will allow
relative humidities to dip to 20-30% in a few locations. Winds will
increase through the day, with a few gusts up to 20 to 25 mph
possible late this afternoon and evening. Combined with the warm
temperatures, this will likely lead to a region of Very High Fire
Danger in far northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa.

Similarly, warm temperatures are expected Monday, with the potential
to gain a few extra degrees. Winds are forecast to weaken through
the day. Additionally, moisture will increase over the region,
relegating fire danger concerns to the High category over northeast
Nebraska.

Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching
shortwave will bring a surge of even warmer air Tuesday, with the
majority of the forecast area expected to reach into the mid and
possibly upper 70s. Breezier south winds and relative humidities
falling to 20 to 40 percent across the majority of the forecast area
will bring an even greater risk for Very High Danger Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

The previously mentioned shortwave and resulting surface low will
pass through the Dakotas Tuesday, potentially resulting in another
round of showers Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as a cold
front moves through (20-40%). Temperatures will dip a few degrees
behind the front Wednesday. Highs are currently expected to reach
into the 60s over the southern half of the forecast area. High
temperatures may be reached earlier in the day, behind the front in
northeast Nebraska. There, expect cooler highs in the 50s,
especially where showers and cloud cover linger.

Drier air will move in behind the departing system Wednesday
afternoon. Locations that miss the patchy rainfall will likely see
an additional day of Very High Fire danger, where winds gust up to
20-30 mph and minimum RH bottoms out around 15-25%.

Thursday and Beyond...

Cooler, moist air surges back into the region until Thursday and
Friday, as the main trough and surface cold front passes through the
Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to dip into the 30s
and 40s late this week. This system will create another surface low
with the potential to bring precipitation across the region. Cold
air wrapping around the backside of this low is expected to
transition rain over to snow Thursday into Friday. The best chance
for any accumulating snow currently looks to be over far northeast
Nebraska Thursday into Friday.

Cooler temperatures and periodic precipitation chances will
continue into the upcoming weekend as another low pressure
system traverses the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to linger through the forecast
period. Expect some wind shear concerns over the southerly half
of the area with strong winds of about 40 knots at 2,000 ft AGL
at KOMA and KLNK. Those winds will be out of the southwest.

Also monitoring the threat of patchy fog development once again.
Best chances of that fog will be in western Iowa and
northeastern Nebraska, but confidence (20%) isn`t high enough
to include at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday`s standing records vs the forecast

     Norfolk 72 | 1981 .. 74 | 2026
     Lincoln 74 | 2017 .. 77 | 2026
     .Offutt 65 | 1970 .. 75 | 2026
     .Eppley 75 | 2017... 75 | 2026
     Tekamah 66 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026
  Falls City 76 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026
  Valley NWS 69 | 2017... 76 | 2026

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen
CLIMATE...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

626
FXUS63 KGID 160022
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A red flag warning remains in effect until 6PM for a few south central
  Nebraska counties. More widespread and even more heightened
  fire weather concerns are expected to return Tuesday
  afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the
  entire area from noon until 8PM Tuesday. Please refer to the
  Fire Weather Section for more information.

- The next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday night (10-40%).
  Rain amounts will be limited in coverage with the overall
  best potential towards the northeast.

- Temperatures will rise towards the mid 70s to low 80s by
  Tuesday, followed by a 30-40 degree drop in highs to the mid
  30s to low 40s by Friday.

- An extended period of non-zero PoPs lies between Wednesday
  night and Saturday night. The highest confidence currently
  resides Thursday (10-40% chances) and Friday evening and night
  (30-40% chances). Snow will be the most likely precipitation
  type.

- Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, limited
  confidence in timing keeps forecast amounts limited to only a
  trace to a few tenths of an inch of forecast snow
  accumulations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Humidity values and winds have dropped below Red Flag Warning
criteria and will continue to do so into the evening hours.
Therefore, have allowed the Red Flag Warning that was
previously in effect for today to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026


Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon

Falling surface pressure this afternoon denotes the onset of a weak
surface trough mainly centered over the Northern Plains this
afternoon. As result, southeast oriented winds have helped pump in a
warm and dry airmass. A secondary resurgence of these 20-30MPH wind
gusts may return overnight with winds calming for much of the day
Monday. Aloft, a gentle ridge will help keep things more stable,
assisting on keeping the period (through Tuesday afternoon) dry and
warm (adiabatic warming from subsidence). Breezy southwest winds are
likely to return Tuesday afternoon (gusts as high as 30-45+MPH) as a
around 990mb surface low deepens over Central Montana.

The combination of the gusty southeasterly downsloping winds and
subsidence from the ridge aloft (adiabatic warming) as well as
clearing skies (diurnal warming) may help highs easily reach the mid
70s to even potentially the low 80s for a few locations (40-80%
chances). These conditions for Tuesday will feel unnatural for
February as temperatures race towards record high potential. For more
information regarding this record breaking heat, please refer to
the climate section below. In addition, the return of breezy
southwesterly winds will likely cause some heightened fire weather
concerns given the dry conditions. Due to the higher than usual
confidence this far out, we have decided to issue a Fire Weather
Watch for the full area for between noon and 8PM. Please refer to
the fie weather section below for more information.


Long Term...Tuesday night and Beyond

The next major pattern shake up will take place around Tuesday night
as a cold front, tied to the aforementioned Northern Plains tracking
surface low, launches on through the area. At this point in time, we
retain only 10-40% PoPs for rain across primarily the northeastern
portions of the area Tuesday night. Amounts will in all likeliness
be minimal and not widespread in coverage.

The more notable change following the front will be from the
tumbling of temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Highs will
likely take a 30-40 degree slide across the period (from the mid 70s
to low 80s down to the mid 30s to low 40s). A powering Central to
South Central Plains roaming jet aloft will also work to stir up the
mid-to-upper level pattern locally, bringing additional
precipitation chances to the area mainly Thursday (10-40% chances)
and Friday evening into Saturday morning (30-40% chances). Due to
some timing uncertainty between long-range forecast guidance
(GFS/ECMWF run to run inconsistency), an extended period of non-zero
PoPs reside between Wednesday night and early Sunday morning.

Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, precipitation amounts
currently favor more modest quantities (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion