Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

003
FXUS63 KOAX 190446
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northeast Nebraska Sunday and
  the entire area Monday. Expect heat index values in the 100 to
  110 range in the afternoon. Overnight heat indices will remain
  in the mid 70s, providing little relief.

- There are spotty storm chances Sunday afternoon, late Sunday
  night, and Monday afternoon/evening. Chances remain in the
  10-20% range, but if storms develop, a few could be strong to
  severe, especially Sunday night and Monday afternoon.

- Cooler weather returns by midweek, with high temperatures
  falling back into the 80s. Along with more seasonable
  temperatures, there will be increasing chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Evening analysis showed surface cold front along the IA/MO
border into central NE and northwestward toward the NE/WY/SD
border area, more as a stationary/warm front. This feature will
push eastward overnight and through the day Sunday, reaching the
NE/IA border toward early to mid-afternoon. Several pieces of
guidance hint at some fog development in vicinity of that
boundary overnight. In addition, model soundings only show a
very shallow layer of stronger winds aloft, so wouldn`t rule out
at least some patchy development elsewhere, especially with
dewpoints hanging in the lower to mid 70s as of 10 PM and low
temperatures expected to be similar to those values. Another
feature of note this evening was some weak shortwave energy
sliding through northeastern WY. This will lead to some shower
and storm development across SD, some of which may be
approaching the forecast area Sunday morning. Latest guidance is
in pretty good agreement that they die off prior to getting
here, but with the boundary in the area, there are some signs of
redevelopment in vicinity of that boundary by the afternoon as
the shortwave continues diving southeast. Once again, not
expecting any severe weather, but can`t rule out some gusty
winds or small hail. Otherwise, the main weather of note on
Sunday will be the hot and humid airmass, with highs in the
lower to mid 90s for most, and near 100 near the NE/SD border.
Heat indices will top out near 100 for most of the area, with
portions of northeast NE hitting 105, where a Heat Advisory will
be in effect. Of course, any precip could significantly impact
temperatures in a few areas if it does develop.

Attention then turns to Sunday night as some additional
shortwave energy pushes into SD, co-located with the nose of
some low-level moisture transport. Additional showers and storms
are expected to develop and track east/southeast, potentially
producing some strong to damaging winds. Still quite a bit of
spread on track of these storms, with some guidance (19.00Z
HRRR) suggesting portions of northeast NE and west-central IA
could get clipped by some dissipating, but still strong or maybe
even severe storms after midnight. That said, a vast majority
of other guidance keeps them off to our northeast, so giving it
about a 10% chance we see anything. It`ll seemingly come down to
where the primary CAPE gradient/axis sets up.

Even warmer air will build in for Monday with NAEFS and EPS
mean 850 mb temperatures around 25-28+ C, good for the 90th-99th
percentile of climatology for this time of year. Mixing that
down would easily give us high temperatures in the 100s, but
given guidance`s propensity to overshoot temperatures and
underdo dewpoints the last several days, adjusted the forecast
in that direction. Still, looking at highs in the mid 90s to
lower 100s with heat indices of 100 to locally 110. As a result,
expanded the Heat Advisory on Monday to cover the entire
forecast area.

By Monday afternoon/evening a cold front will start pushing in
from the north and should bring us some additional showers and
storms, with guidance suggesting we`ll have at least a little
shear to keep storms organized. In addition, given the hot and
humid airmass, we`ll have plenty of instability to work with. So
we`ll have potential for some strong to severe storms as the
front works through the area, with SPC currently highlighting a
level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for portions of the area. For what
it`s worth, various machine learning severe weather guidance has
trended severe weather probabilities up for our area.
Definitely a timeframe to keep an eye on though, especially if
you have outdoor plans.

Behind the front and with the primary ridge axis being pushed
to our west, we`ll finally see some relief from the heat, with
high temperatures falling into the 80s and lower 90s through the
remainder of the work week. We`ll also see increasing shower
and storm chances as a couple shortwaves push through Wednesday
night/Thursday and Thursday night/Friday (40-60% chance for both
timeframes). Machine learning severe weather guidance continues
to suggest our potential for severe weather with these chances
will remain quite low.

For next weekend, signs are pointing toward upper level ridging
and warmer air returning, with widespread highs in the 90s and
latest guidance suggesting at least a 30-50% chance of exceeding
95 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period, but will need to keep
an eye on isolated shower and storm development early in the
period and potential fog around 08-12Z. Fog appears most likely
at OFK and LNK, but winds aloft still look strong enough to keep
it pretty patchy if it does develop. In addition, there are some
signs for potential MVFR ceilings as clouds first develop Sunday
morning, but they should quickly rise above 3000 ft. Otherwise,
winds will go from easterly to southeasterly and should remain
under 10 kts through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ011-
     012-016-017.
IA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

896
FXUS63 KGID 182322
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Hot and humid weather continues through Monday, with highs
   and heat index values in the 100s possible on Monday.

- Isolated-scattered showers/storms possible through sunset
  across mainly far northern and far southeastern portions of
  the area.

- Cooler (near normal) weather arrives by the middle of next
  week with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

- More widespread precipitation chances (20-50%) arrive
  Wednesday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s with heat index
values expected to top out around 100 degrees. Two main areas of
isolated-scattered shower/thunderstorm development are possible this
afternoon-evening, though an isolated storm can`t be ruled out
across most of the area. The first is mainly along and north of
Highway 92 in Nebraska, with a second area possible for areas along
and south of a Stockton-Hebron line. Whatever showers/storms do form
look to be fairly brief and weak given poor shear. These summertime
pop up storms should wane around sunset as stability increases. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with light winds.

Sunday...

Ridging aloft over the eastern Rockies/western Plains continues on
Sunday. At the surface another hot and humid day is expected across
the area as temperatures climb into the 90s. Similar to
today/Saturday, heat index values reach the upper 90s to around 100
degrees during the afternoon/early evening. Will need to keep an eye
on the potential for a few scattered, non-severe storms to move into
far northern portions of the area Sunday night, though confidence is
too low to include in the forecast at this time.

Monday...

Monday remain on track to be the hottest day of the forecast period
as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. It`s possible that
temperatures could be a few degrees too warm if dewpoints are slow
to mix out. Regardless of the exact high, dewpoints combined with
hot temperatures will result in heat index values in the 100s on
Monday. A Heat advisory will likely be needed for at least a portion
of the forecast area given the support for fairly widespread
low-mid 100s heat index values. A cold front pushes into the
area late Monday evening-night. An isolated storm is possible
along this front as it moves into northern portions of the
forecast area, but any storm will likely be on the downtrend as
it enters the forecast area given the time of arrival.

Tuesday Onwards...

Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest begins to transition the
upper level flow into a northwesterly flow regime on Tuesday.
While slightly cooler than on Monday, temperatures on Tuesday
remain hot as they climb into the 90s (warmest KS). Temperatures
sink towards their climatological normals Wednesday onwards
with highs in the 80s to low 90s. More widespread precipitation
chances (20-50%) arrive on Wednesday and continue through the
end of the forecast period. Details on these chances will become
clearer as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will prevail. Light wind are present and
generally variable across the area and will remain that way
through most of the forecast. Winds will become a touch stronger
- about 7-10kts Sunday afternoon and be out of the south to
  southeast. A few scattered mid clouds will be present during
  the afternoon Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion