Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

656
FXUS63 KOAX 240242
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
942 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms mainly over northeast Nebraska
  tonight.

- The next substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives early in
  the day Thursday. The highest chance for storms (40-70%)
  looks to occur across central and southern Nebraska.

- Very warm and humid conditions return this weekend with the
  Heat Index likely exceeding 100 degrees starting Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A cold front is moving into northeast Nebraska this evening with
a few showers struggling to develop along the front. Despite
1000-1500J/kg of SBCAPE, storms are struggling possibly due to
confluence on the nose of the right exit region of the Jet
Streak inhibiting weak forcing along the cold front. Could also
be more neutral lapse rates from 850-700mb which weak forcing is
struggling to make it through. Whatever the case, with the front
weakening even further through the night, rain chances are
dropping off quite a bit with little-to-no rain expected outside
of a few isolated showers in northeast Nebraska.

Looking at the broad upper-level pattern, we have weak ridging
over the Desert Southwest with nearly zonal flow over the
Northern Plains, only slightly oriented northwest to southeast.
Flow stays fairly zonal through the end of the week. With this
pattern, we watch closely for shortwaves bringing periodic
chances for showers and storms. On Wednesday afternoon we`ll be
watching storm development over western Nebraska, though the
northwesterly component in the steering flow should keep these
tracking southeast into Kansas Wednesday night. Meanwhile, we
stay mostly dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Thursday another shortwave will help to flatten the steering
flow leading to more west-east storm movement, but guidance has
tended to develop this next MCS to our south, mainly over
north-central and northeast Kansas. This will keep a 20-40
percent chance of showers and storms though overnight Thursday
into early Friday for a portion of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Friday looks mostly dry as ridging starts to build over Nebraska
into western Iowa. A stronger trough moving into the PacNW helps
to buckle the upper-level flow building a ridge over the
Northern Plains. This ridge only grows going into the weekend
as the trough over the PacNW deepens along the West Coast
amplifying the downstream ridge. As this occurs, we`ll see
increased warm-air and moisture advection into the region
leading to starkly warmer temperatures with highs back in the
mid-to-upper 80s on Saturday and low-to-mid 90s on Sunday.
Humidity will become a concern too, with heat indices getting
into the upper 90s to low 100s by the afternoon on Sunday. The
hot, humid weather continues into early next week with rain
chances staying north of our area through Monday. Our next
chance of storms will be possible as a shortwave rides over the
ridge Monday night into early Tuesday, though placement of this
system is still somewhat up-in-the-air due to this being
farther out in the forecast period.

Next week is just looking darn hot with this initial ridge over
the area early next week, only to be replaced by another ridge
building up to our west later in the week. While we could still
see periodic overnight MCS development help to bring chances for
rainfall, weather during the day is looking to stay hot and
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions this evening with a cold front moving into
northeast Nebraska. Winds are mostly out of the south or
southwest ahead of this front, with a few showers developing
along it as it moves south into northeast Nebraska. Chances for
showers have decreased for areas south of KOFK along the frontal
boundary, down to around 30% at KOMA and 15% at KLNK as the
front moves through later tonight, so have removed them from
these TAFs. Expect winds to shift to northwesterly then
northerly overnight as the front moves through. Winds stay out
of the north into the day on Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

311
FXUS63 KGID 240024
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and semi-active weather pattern continues for
  another couple of days.

- The next decent chance for rain looks to be Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning, but severe weather threat appears to be
  pretty marginal.

- Return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity this
  weekend into early next week.

- Broadly speaking, may see another uptick in severe weather
  potential in the Saturday night to Tuesday time frame as an
  upper trough ejects from the Rockies into the central/northern
  Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A shortwave disturbance moved through the area this morning and
early afternoon and brought a broad swath of light to moderate
rain showers. Fortunately, instability was lacking with this
system and kept severe weather potential at bay. Subsidence
behind this wave has allowed for some clearing skies and
temperatures to rise into the 70s. This clearing may allow for a
few showers or weak storms to pop up through early evening, but
lack of stronger instability and lingering effects of the
subsidence should keep most locations dry.

Next few days look to feature the same general mid to upper
level pattern in which an upper low spins over the northern
Plains into Upper MS Valley and ridging builds over the SW and W
Coast. This should lead to zonal to NW flow for the central
Plains. Modest and moist upslope flow should allow for daily
thunderstorm development along the High Plains each afternoon,
which will then roll E/SE during the evening and overnight hours
with the mean flow and along a stout instability gradient.
Appears the primary instability axis will remain mostly W/SW/S
of the area each of the next few days, which should keep our
severe threat fairly limited. Appears the best potential for
scattered to widespread rain and embedded storms will be with a
disturbance Wed night into Thu AM. It`s late June and there`s at
least SOME elevated instability and shear, so the various
Marginal Risks on the SPC outlooks make sense...but again, not
expecting anything real organized or widespread for our local
forecast area.

Upper pattern will undergo some changes late in the week, and
especially this weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridging
slides east in response to a new trough developing along the
West Coast. So after several days of seasonably cool highs in
the 70s to lower 80s, should see a significant jump in temps by
Friday and esp. over the weekend. In fact, latest NBM gives
widespread mid 80s to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday - which
will feel quite steamy given seasonably high dew points
currently forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F. The
relatively moist ground from recent rainfall and
evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn will probably
support even higher values in the low to mid 70s for areas E of
Hwy 281 towards the Hwy 81 corridor. Not sure this uptick in
heat and humidity will necessarily rise to advisory levels (heat
indices of 105+), and there will be some southerly breezes to
help bring SOME relief...but it`s a summer weekend, so keep in
mind for those outdoor activities.

Generally speaking, the upper pattern may become more supportive
for severe thunderstorms at some point in the Saturday night
(low level jet/warm air advection) to Tuesday time frame as the
western trough migrates into the Rockies and eventually the
central and northern Plains. This low will likely force at
least a weak to moderate cold front into the region Sunday night
or Monday...which could then linger into Tuesday per recent
deterministic and ensemble trends. This general evolution should
support SOME overlap in seasonably strong deep layer shear
associated with ejecting mid/upper jet streak and large
reservoir of strong to extreme instability, somewhere in the
region during this time frame. Now, does this overlap occur
locally or perhaps further N...and what exactly will be the
timing of the upper trough and surface fronts...these details
still need to be worked out and are critical to pinning down
sensible weather details this time of year. Machine learning
guidance supports the idea of 2-3 day window of increased
severe weather potential, but remains quite broad in it`s
footprint, and muted on any higher end probabilities. Again,
something to monitor as we approach the busy summer weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
While VFR ceiling/visibility will surely prevail the majority of
the period, particularly the "middle 12 hours" (06-18Z) are
frought with quite a bit of uncertainty as the development of
low stratus and/or at least light fog could easily result in
sub-VFR conditions on at least an intermittent basis. As for
rain/thunderstorm potential, it is a similar situation...as
while it will surely remain dry/thunderstorm-free the vast
majority of the time...that same "middle 12" (06-18Z) time frame
carries at least a small chance (generally 10-20%) for a passing
shower/weak thunderstorm. By far the most straightforward
aviation element of the period is winds, as although direction
will be a bit difficult to pin down given light speeds and a
weak pressure gradient...the key phrase is "light speeds"...with
speeds likely at-or-below 7KT the vast majority of the period.

Taking all of the ceiling/visibility uncertainties discussed in
the previous paragraph into consideration, and leaning on
"older school" numerical guidance (such as LAV/LAMP) as much as
anything given that most "higher res" model data seems to be
struggling with their current depiction of low-level cloud
cover...latest TAFs are geared the following direction:
- Ceiling: Have maintained at least scattered MVFR to low-VFR
  groups throughout the period, but only have enough confidence
  to go prevailing MVFR 11-15Z at this time. That being said,
  should any fog actually develop, ceiling could quickly
  deteriorate to at least IFR.

- Visibility: While at least intermittent pockets of at least
  light fog certainly cannot be ruled out overnight through a
  few hours post-sunrise Thursday, majority of models/guidance
  seem to support the idea that enough higher-level cloud cover
  will exist to "mute" this potential. As a result, have opted
  to only "hint" at fog potential with low-end VFR "6SM BR"
  focused 06-15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion