Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

773
FXUS63 KOAX 191113
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
513 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of eastern Nebraska will see high to very high fire danger
this afternoon due to dry conditions and breezy south to
southwest winds.

- A weak cold front moves through the area on Saturday. Temperatures
remain in the 40s through this weekend with no precipitation
expected.

- A warming trend develops next week. Well above normal
  temperatures are anticipated by the holidays. Record warmth is
  possible by mid- week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Surface high pressure continues to build across the Great Plains
behind Thursday`s system. Under this high pressure, winds have
weakened and become light early this morning. Skies have also
cleared other than scattered high cirrus. Temperatures will be
chilly by morning with these conditions as teens start our Friday.
Though the morning starts chilly, temperatures already begin their
rebound by afternoon. This rebound is fueled by the quick return of
southerly winds as a trough and associated low pressure system
tracks east into the Canadian Prairie. Temperatures reach the 40s
for the majority of the area this afternoon. The breezy south winds
couple with dry conditions to support high to very high fire danger
over portions of eastern Nebraska. Empty fields and between a tenth
of an inch to a quarter of inch of rainfall on Thursday, limits
grassland fire potential somewhat.

The aforementioned low pressure system and accompanying cold front
swings through the region on Saturday. This cold front is expected
to remain weak with only slight temperatures reductions. This keeps
temperatures in the 40s on Saturday. Unfortunately, this front will
be dry with no precipitation. Sunday sees temperatures hold steady in
the 40s across the area as well.

To start the holiday week, an anomalous ridge begins to build across
the south-central CONUS. This feature will dominate the forecast
through the remainder of the week as it slowly builds and moves
eastward. Temperatures are expected to reach the 50s for most of the
area on Monday. These temperatures hold steady or warm slightly as
the center of this ridge moves over the region by mid-week.
Temperatures associated with this ridge are going to remain 15 to 20
degrees above normal with the potential for record setting heat.
Even though this is nearly a week out in the forecast, guidance is
already indicating a medium chance (40-60%) of the record high
temperature being broken on Christmas at Eppley. This record is
currently 57 set in 1946. The large-scale pattern overall supports a
run on this record. As it stands, the exact opposite of a White
Christmas appears almost certain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light winds from
surface high pressure continues this morning. Over the next few
hours, southerly winds develop as the high pressure moves east
of the area. By this afternoon, elevated southerly winds with
gusts between 20 to 30 kts are expected. Winds weaken slightly
after sunset, but low-level winds increase. LLWS is expected
from this through the evening hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

234
FXUS63 KGID 191129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
529 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical critical fire weather conditions are likely this
  afternoon (70-90%) as southerly winds gust up to 25-35MPH
  with minimum RH values mainly between 20-30%.

- The 7-day forecast remains dry, though a small chance of precip
  (10-15%) can`t be ruled out overnight tonight.

- Warmer temperatures (50s/60s) will be expected today as well
  as the period Monday through next Friday. A cold frontal
  passage late overnight tonight will keep temperatures
  Saturday and Sunday in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Following yesterday`s strong northwest winds, breezy southerlies
will return again this afternoon (gusts up to 25-35MPH) as a surface
low pressure trough deepens across the upper plains. These gusty
southerlies will advect warmer air in from the south, lifting
temperatures around 10-15 degrees compared to Thursday. Despite a
few clouds today, highs this afternoon are still expected to fall
between the upper 40s to low 60s, generally warmest towards the
west.

Recovering dewpoints following yesterday`s front (only in the
20s) should lag behind the warming temperatures today. This will
allow afternoon relative humidity values to drop as low as 20-30%.
The low RH values with gusty winds will prompt near-critical fire
weather conditions (70-90% chances) across several portions of the
area. A few isolated drier and more western lying locations could
briefly reach critical fire weather conditions (10-30% chances),
though likely not for long enough to justify RFW criteria.

Falling pressure through the day/evening will indicate the approach
of another cold frontal passage late overnight tonight. This
feature, also tied to the passage of a weak upper-level shortwave
trough aloft, will flip the wind directions back to the north,
severing the warming trend for Saturday and Sunday. The later night
passage of the cold front with the addition of clouds filing in most
of the night sky will limit the effect of diurnal cooling overnight.
Lows as result are not expected to dip below the mid 20s to low 30s.
Highs Saturday afternoon will return back to the 40s to low 50s. A
slim precipitation chance behind the front can`t be completely ruled
out (10-15% chance), although appreciable accumulations will not be
likely. Otherwise, the pattern aloft should reflect a more zonal
west to east flow with ridging favored to dominate much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Strong northerly winds have been present throughout the day
today as the secondary front came through during the morning
hours. Frequent northerly wind gusts exceeding 58 mph (with some
exceeding 70 mph) have been present across much of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. These winds will
begin to diminish over the next couple hours as the upper system
moves off and the sun sets minimizing boundary layer mixing.
The change will be fairly rapid with surface high pressure
overhead during the overnight hours and light and variable winds
at most locations by midnight. The rapid decline in winds may
allow the High Wind Warning to be expired/cancelled slightly
early, but at a minimum the 6pm looks to be fine as an
expiration time.

The strong winds coupled with low RH values will keep
fire danger elevated, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
until 6pm as well, as the winds decrease and RH values increase
by 6pm, the RFW will also be able to be expired/cancelled early.

Overall upper level flow will transition from zonal/slight
northwesterly flow to upper level ridging by mid next week. No
major weather systems are expected to move through the area
during this time. Temperatures will begin on a big of a roller
coaster before moving higher as we approach Christmas Day.

Friday night/Saturday morning, another front will move through,
dropping temps under mostly cloudy skies, but no precipitation
is expected.

As we move into the Holiday week, temperatures will be well
above normal. For reference, highs in the upper 30s are
climatological norms for mid/late December. Temps will be in
the 50s to 60s next week. On Christmas Day alone, the high looks
to be in the low 60s. The Record High for Christmas Day at
Grand Island, NE (KGRI) is 62 degrees. The full suite of 100
models at 7 days out indicates that there is a 31% chance that
the temperature will exceed 60 degrees, and a 62% chance the
temp will exceed 55 degrees at Grand Island. No holiday travel
impacts are currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The primarly aviation hazard within the 12z TAF period will be
LLWS. Some LLWS out of the south-southwest will temporarily go
away as surface speeds increase during the afternoon hours. LLWS
will be expected to return tonight after 23z when surface winds
decrease. LLWS up to 50kts as well as wind directions will veer
from the south-southwest to the northwest between 23-12z.
Surface winds in the afternoon will blow as high as 15-20kts
with gusts as high as 25-30kts. Though broken ceilings return
this evening, it is unlikely that cloud bases will fall much
more below 15,000ft.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion