Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

734
FXUS63 KOAX 011928
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
128 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The main concern in the immediate forecast is the potential
  for snow, a wintry mix and freezing drizzle through Monday
  morning. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include a
  few more counties. Slick roads may be possible for the Monday
  morning commute.

- Another chance for precipitation and possibly a few rumbles of
  thunder Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The main concern in the immediate forecast period is the potential
for snow, a wintry mix and freezing drizzle impacting portions of
the CWA through Monday morning. Precipitation has begun moving into
the area from the west, currently impacting areas from Schuyler
(Colfax County) to Friend (Saline County). Light snow will be
possible this afternoon and evening. With the recent warmth and
ground temperatures being on the warmer side of things, initial
snowfall will not stick.

Temperatures are expected to fall later this afternoon, bringing the
potential for a light wintry mix, particularly for areas along the
Kansas/Nebraska border. Total accumulation amounts of snow and
wintry mix are expected to be between a trace and an inch, with most
areas under 1/2 inch. After midnight, we are continuing to see
signals in thermal profiles of a possibility of some freezing
drizzle developing in southern Nebraska. This potential and
forecasted ice accumulations from a light glaze to around a tenth of
an inch of ice prompted a westward expansion of the Winter Weather
Advisory. The advisory time is still the same, going into effect at
3pm this afternoon and continuing through 9am Monday, just with the
addition of Jefferson, Gage and Johnson counties. Areas that do pick
up the wintry mix and/or freezing drizzle could have some slick
surfaces which will impact the Monday morning commute. Thermal
profiles do hint at maybe a low possibility (20% or less) of
freezing drizzle for areas further north, toward the I-80 corridor;
however, that possibility is less certain. Drizzle/freezing drizzle
should end by around 15Z.

We will have a break in precipitation in the afternoon, with
possibly another round in the evening and overnight hours.
Temperatures will be warm enough where the expected p-type would be
rain for much of this second event.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, the focus will shift west to a
system coming over the Colorado Rockies. Southwest flow and some
warmer temperatures are expected for our area Tuesday. Highs will
reach the mid-40s to low 50s. By Tuesday evening, the disturbance
will be crossing the Rockies. One notable change in the models is a
slowing of the GFS solution, falling more in line with the ECMWF.
The trough has shifted slightly further north, resulting in a slight
increase in PoPs for Wednesday from what we had yesterday. Wednesday
afternoon, there is a chance for a few non-severe thunderstorms for
areas along and east of a line from the Omaha Metro to Syracuse and
Tecumseh.

Warmer temperatures are expected as southwest flow sets up over the
region toward the latter half of the week. Models are showing the
possibility of a late week/early weekend storm system potentially
impacting the area, although few other details are known at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions are currently ongoing at the terminal.
Ceilings are expected to drop by 02Z as stratus moves into the
region with the next storm system. A few light snow showers are
moving around the terminal but at this point in time, snow
chances are not great at KOFK. Conditions fall to MVFR after
midnight with winds becoming southerly. Freezing drizzle may
develop, particularly south of I-80, but we are not currently
thinking it will impact the terminal at this time.

KOMA: Ceilings have improved to VFR levels and are expected to
remain through around midnight. After midnight, ceilings are
expected to lower as stratus moves into the region. Some pockets
of light snow will fall across portions of the region this
afternoon/early evening, with better chances south of the
terminal. For now due to uncertainty, have opted to not put snow
in prevailing conditions. The best chance should anything make
it as far east as the terminal would be between 19Z and 23Z.
Overnight/early Monday morning, freezing drizzle is expected
south of I-80 with better chances toward the KS/NE border. There
is a small (20%) chance that a little freezing drizzle may occur
near KOMA, but confidence in this solution is low.

KLNK: VFR conditions continue at the terminal early in the
forecast period. Expect ceilings to lower as snow to the west of
the terminal pushes into the area. Have enough confidence in
snow impacting the terminal that a mention was made between 20Z
and 00Z. Chances will be non-zero after that time; however they
will be low. After midnight, there is a chance of freezing
drizzle toward the KS/NE border. There is a 20% chance of
freezing drizzle possibly developing near KLNK, but confidence
is low in this solution at this time, so it was not added to
prevailing conditions for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

275
FXUS63 KGID 012207
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One focused round of mixed-phase wintry precip vacates our far
  southeast forecast area (CWA) late this afternoon-early
  evening, but pesky light freezing drizzle and/or patchy fog
  COULD become an issue late tonight into Monday morning (any
  freezing drizzle most favored counties along/east of Hwy 281).

- Although there could be some legitimate steadier showers here
  or there, Monday night-Tuesday night/Wed AM mainly just look
  very drizzly/at times foggy (greatest fog coverage probably
  Mon night-Tues AM). Fortunately, the vast majority of this
  drizzle should be of the plain/non-frozen variety.

- Wednesday afternoon-Thursday daytime should mainly be a dry
  break as we reside "in between" low pressure systems. After a
  few very "gloomy" days, sunshine and warmer temps will also
  return.

- Our next systems arrives Thursday night-Friday, and is
  currently expected to bring mainly rain potential (most wintry
  precip looks to focus mainly to our north/west). There are
  also increasing signs of thunderstorm potential (especially
  Thurs night-Fri AM)...MAYBE even enough instability for at
  least a small hail threat?

- Next weekend currently looks mainly dry in the wake of the
  departing Friday system

- Temperature-wise: highs mainly 40s Mon-Tues under extensive
  clouds, then warming to mostly 50s Wednesday and around 70
  Thursday before a mix of 50s-60s Friday-Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
 COMMENTS:

- In terms of forecast changes worth mentioning:
1) High temps have trended down a bit Mon-Wed due to extensive
cloud cover/periodic drizzle.

2) Limited areas of "patchy fog" have been introduced to
tonight-Monday AM, and higher confidence "areas of fog" have
been introduced to Mon night-Tues AM. Cannot rule out at least
localized dense fog.

- As for "big picture comments", our weather over the next week
  appears to be coming into a little better focus versus 24
  hours ago, with our main/potential issues already covered in
  the Key Messages above. In addition to the aforementioned
  light freezing drizzle potential tonight-Monday AM and fog
  potential the next few nights, our next possible concern looks
  to be thunderstorm potential mainly Thurs night-Fri AM.
  Although too early to have much confidence in details, current
  model data suggests there could be enough elevated instability
  to support a few stronger storms with mainly a hail threat.
  Honestly, if this system slows down much at all from current
  projections, Friday afternoon could perhaps even feature a
  very early-season severe storm threat (as of right now this
  appears to mainly focus slightly to our east-southeast (as
  supported by latest NSSL ML Total Severe Probability
  guidance).

- One thing NOT currently in our Hazardous Weather Outlook
  (HWOGID), but at least bears watching is fire weather
  potential for Thursday. While the damp/drizzle conditions
  earlier in the week could ease the fire threat a little, finer
  fuels (grasses) will dry out quickly. Southerly gusts of 20+
  MPH currently appear probably for Thursday afternoon, but as
  of now relative humidity (RH) looks to remain well above our
  critical 20% threshold (albeit somewhat close in our far
  western zones).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
It`s been a fairly busy day around here, as the most aggressive
model solutions from the last couple of days ended up being
"most right" about the concentrated batch of mixed wintry precip
(primarily a sleet/snow mix with perhaps a touch of freezing
rain) that started off in very light/non-impactful fashion
across much of our western/northern CWA this morning, but then
really "took off" within especially our southeastern quadrant
this afternoon. Based on 511 road reports, there is fairly
widespread coverage of partially-to-completely covered roads
with either ice/slush/snow within much of the Advisory area.
Speaking of which, earlier this morning we ended up issuing a
formal Winter Weather Advisory initially for 7 of our
southeastern-most counties, but then earlier this afternoon
tacked on Clay/Fillmore counties as the northern fringes of
steady precip also got into those counties as well. Thanks to a
tongue of weak elevated instability nosing northward into our
southeast CWA, especially some of our KS counties also
experienced several lightning strikes from non-severe storms.
SIDE NOTE: on top of all the actual WEATHER going on...a 4.1
magnitude earthquake (fairly strong for our area) occurred in
Webster County around 1 PM! (see USGS website for more details).

Back to weather: In the big picture of the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
the low amplitude/quick moving shortwave trough traversing the
Central Plains that sparked our round of wintry precip. At the
surface (and as so often occurs in these setups), persistent
easterly breezes (mainly sustained 10-15 MPH with slightly
higher gusts), along with extensive cloud cover over most of our
CWA, has helped hold temps a bit below forecast values (most of
our CWA on track to top out no warmer than 30-35. However, more
sun has broken out especially over the western 1/4th of our CWA
to boost things into the upper 30s-low 40s.


- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Although the Winter Weather Advisory in our southeast officially
runs until 6 PM, latest radar data/short term model trends
strongly suggest that things are moving out pretty steadily
(most lingering precip now confined to Jewell/Thayer counties),
and will probably cancel most counties once this discussion is
completed. Any lingering/steadier precip should vacate even our
extreme east-southeast edges no later than 5-6 PM.


- LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
As the night wears on, light east-southeasterly breezes and
moist/upslope low level flow will allow low stratus to persist
and or/move into essentially our entire forecast area (probably
arriving to far western zones last). While not expected to be a
"major deal", an analysis of low-level cloud thickness/relative
humidity via RAP model suggests that very light freezing drizzle
could develop mainly post-midnight and mainly within counties
along/east of Highway 281 (farther west, moisture depth is less
supportive of freezing drizzle). Right now, freezing drizzle is
only considered a POSSIBILITY (not a "sure thing") and thus no
formal Advisories are in effect, but this will need monitored
closely. Otherwise, at least patchy areas of fog are looking
possible overnight, with latest HRRR painting the greatest fog
potential within counties along/south of I-80. Sometimes models
"over-do" fog under low stratus, but with today`s precipitation
and light breezes, it cannot be ruled out (including the
possibility of localized dense fog). Low temps tonight are aimed
upper 20s most areas (clouds holding up reading from falling
far), except colder low 20s far west/north where the night will
start off clearest.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
For the morning hours, we will see a continuation of at least
patchy fog potential (mainly counties along/south of I-80, along
with the aforementioned potential for light freezing drizzle
mainly along/east of Hwy 281. Fortunately, by 10 AM temperatures
should warm above freezing, turning any freezing drizzle to
plain/non-freezing drizzle. For the afternoon, while some very
patchy/lingering drizzle cannot be ruled out, opted to actually
carry a dry forecast as it should mainly just be a very
cloudy/cool and somewhat breezy day with sustained southeast
winds 10-15 MPH/gusts up to 15-25 MPH). Given the expectation of
extensive low clouds, high temps were nudged down a few
degrees..most areas now aimed 41-45...except upper 40s possible
extreme west (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas).

Monday night, the potential for more widespread (mainly NON-
freezing) drizzle and areas of fog (possibly some dense) really
ramps up as the low-level further saturate in the presence of
light east-southeasterly breezes. Although actual rain amounts
will not be significant (drizzle rarely is), our official precip
chances (PoPs) are also likely not nearly high enough to convey
the very high probability of drizzle. Low temps mainly 33-39
degrees (slightly above freezing), but far north/northwest
counties COULD drop just below freezing so light freezing
drizzle potential will need monitored.


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
Although we could end up getting some steadier showers as a mid
level shortwave trough passes overhead (especially Tues evening-
overnight), precip type for especially most of the daytime hours
should continue as steady/widespread drizzle...with areas of fog
likely lasting until at least Noon as well. As was the case for
Monday, high temps were nudged down slightly, now mainly mid-
upper 40s at most.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME:
The vast majority of our CWA will likely be dry for the vast
majority of these 36 hours, as we end up "in between" systems.
Our official forecast still carries some small rain chances
Wednesday daytime-evening, but latest NAM/GFS really lean toward
the dry side. Sunshine should also make a triumphant return
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with high temps responding
accordingly (highs mainly upper 50s-low 60s Wednesday and upper
60s-low 70s Thursday...possibly mid 70s southwest. As touched on
above, will have to watch for possible fire weather concerns as
southerly breezes pick up Thursday.


- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although far too early to "count on" any details, confidence is
at least growing in the overall timing/arrival of our next
upper system. Rain showers/some thunderstorms (MAYBE a few
strong?) appear likely mainly Thurs night-Fri AM, with a cold
front then charging through during the day Friday and in theory
shunting any Friday afternoon thunderstorm threat at least
slightly to our east-southeast. Our far northern/western zones
could flirt with catching some snow on the backside of this
system, but right now this MAINLY looks to focus at least
slightly north- through-west of our CWA. High temps Friday could
vary more than currently advertised depending on frontal
position, but are currently aimed from low-mid 50s north/west to
low-mid 60s south/southeast.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Although our official forecast technically clips some of our KS
counties with some very "iffy" slight rain chances, the latest
ECMWF/GFS strongly support our going dry forecast for at least
the vast majority of our CWA. High temps currently aimed near-60
Saturday and then warmer mid 60s-low 70s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although VFR conditions will likely prevail this afternoon in
the wake of an exiting disturbance, this evening will bring a
return of MVFR ceiling that will then only likely only further
lower to IFR late tonight and lasting through Monday morning.
Visibility will probably remain VFR, but some sporadic MVFR
cannot be ruled out if any light drizzle/freezing drizzle
manages to develop late tonight into Monday morning. Winds will
not be much of an issue throughout, with sustained speeds mainly
at-or-below 10KT as direction gradually shifts from more
easterly to more south-southeasterly with time.

- Additional ceiling/visibility/precipitation potential
  details:
Although a few-to-scattered low clouds could linger around this
afternoon, confidence is now fairly high that VFR will prevail
through around 01Z, when a low-end VFR/high-end MVFR ceiling
will likely advect in from the south. As the night wears on,
this ceiling should only gradually lower, with an onset of IFR
expected sometime in the 08-12Z time frame...then persisting
through the remainder of the period. Kept visibility no worse
than low-end VFR for now, but IF any light freezing drizzle or
light fog manages to develop late tonight into Monday morning,
then at least brief/sporadic MVFR cannot be ruled out. This is
considered a low probability scenario, with much higher
confidence in the low ceilings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

If you thought it has been unusually warm so far this winter,
you are right! With February now in the books, the traditional
winter months of December-January-February (DJF) ended as the
5th warmest DJF in Hastings (33.6 degrees) and 6th warmest
DJF in Grand Island (33.2 degrees) since record keeping began
(based on average temperature).

In both cases, this was the warmest winter locally since the
winter of 1991-1992, when the average temperature was 34.6
degrees and 35.1 degrees, respectively. The winter of 1991-1992
remains the warmest winter on record at both sites.

In comparison to normal, the average temperatures at both sites
was just over 5 degrees above average for the 3 month period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ076-
     077-085>087.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ006-
     007-018-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion