Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

368
FXUS63 KOAX 061023
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
523 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop once again early Monday morning.

- Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday with dry
  conditions.

- Thunderstorm chances return to northeast Nebraska late Tuesday
  night, with better chances across the region Wednesday night
  into Thursday.

- A prolonged period of heat is expected this weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Monday will be very "July" in that the high and low temperatures
in the upper 80s and upper 60s should be very close to normal
values for this date. It will be slightly warmer in western
parts of the forecast area, sneaking into the lower 90s. Expect
a south breeze, but nothing over 20 mph, and no precipitation.
Tuesday`s conditions will be quite similar to Monday.

Late Tuesday, model agreement is strong in a weak mid/upper
level disturbance moving through the zonal flow pattern in the
Dakotas. This will orient a weak surface front from northeast CO
into southeast SD by late evening, and it may drift into
northeast NE overnight. This could support a few storms, but the
wind profiles are very weak south of the NE/SD border, so it
would probably be a struggle to get anything severe other than
the southern fringes of any potential MCS passing well to the
north. All in all, late Tuesday doesn`t look like much of a
severe threat at this time, but something to keep an eye on.

That front sags south on Wednesday and stalls in the forecast
area while another weak short wave trough and modest upper jet
max have a glancing influence. This should set the stage for a
round or two of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday
morning At least moderate instability looks likely , and wind
shear profiles may be sufficient to support some storm
organization. The high moisture content along with a slow moving
frontal boundary suggest heavy rain potential as well, possibly
lingering into Thursday night if the front remains in the
vicinity.

As we move into the weekend and beyond, all signs point to heat.
A substantial upper level ridge will build over the Four Corners
region with strong agreement amongst ensemble guidance that this
heat dome will build east over the Central Plains by early next
week, likely leading to some of the hottest air of the year. The
8-14 day outlook also looks warmer than normal with a gradual
bit of a cooling trend toward the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light and variable winds this morning has allowed the
developmentof some patchy fog along the Missouri River, the
Wahoo area, and southwest Iowa. So far there have been no
impacts at TAF sites. I delayed the MVFR vis restrictions at
KOMA for 12Z to 14Z, but confidence in fog timing and density is
always low.

Otherwise the day will be sunny and quiet.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

353
FXUS63 KGID 061059
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm today and Tuesday.

- Good chances (50 to 70%) for thunderstorms return Wednesday
  and Thursday.

- A drier and hotter pattern returns for the weekend and lasts
  into the following week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overall changes are minimal from previous forecasts.

Today and Tuesday feature high temperatures in the low 90s for
most areas as surface winds return to the south/southeast.
Afternoon gusts range from 15-30 MPH (highest west). Confidence
remains high in dry conditions through at least Tuesday evening.

There is still a low chance for a few thunderstorms to sneak in
from the northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
but ensembles have trended drier for this period as compared to
24 hours ago.

An upper shortwave and surface frontal system will bring better
chances for rain and thunderstorms to the entire area on
Wednesday. These chances continue Thursday, but would favor
western portions of the area more than the east. A few strong
to severe storms are possible, but convective details remain
uncertain at this range.

Overall, Friday has trended drier for most of the area, and this
dry trend looks to continue into the weekend as upper level
ridging builds over the west/central US. This will also be
favorable for well-above-normal temperatures (highs in the upper
90s and 100s) at times through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The first part of the work-week is seasonal and dry.
Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area. Upper ridging will build in to the Central
Plains from the Four Corners region for the first half of the
work-week. A strong disturbance moving atop the ridge will break
it down and upper level flow will become more zonal by midweek.


The return to more zonal type flow will allow for an increase
precipitation chances for the second half of the work-week. Lee
troughing will cause a front to develop across the high plains.
Model ensemble guidance indicates that the next upper wave will
approach the area on Wednesday with the best precipitation
potential (40-60% chance) on Wednesday evening into the
overnight hours. The potential for precipitation exists for
Thursday and Friday, but with less confidence. Thursday the best
chances for precipitation look to be along the High Plains
sliding southeast into Kansas with a 25-50% chance for central,
south central and north central Kansas. It will depend on where
an upper level disturbance tracks across the Central Plains. By
Friday the potential for precipitation is closer to 20% for the
area as the upper disturbance moves off to the east. As
this occurs, ridging builds into the west.
During the second half of the work week, temperatures are
expected to be in the 80s, which is near to slightly below
normal for early/mid July.

Moving into the end of the forecast period, next weekend, and
beyond. Much of the model guidance including the ensemble
guidance indicates a potentially significant heat wave. This is
due to a high amplitude ridge building into the intermountain
west. Ensemble mean Maximum Temperatures move close to the
triple digit mark, especially as we move into the next work-week.
Details will change, but current grand ensemble values show 20%
chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday
the 13th, and 40% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100
degrees on the 14th. This period is something to watch for
extreme heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95%) through the period with only a few
afternoon cumulus.

Winds return to the south today. Afternoon gusts near 20kts are
possible, especially at EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion