Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

586
FXUS63 KOAX 181631
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1131 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant weather conditions today, with highs
  generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- A few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder are possible
  Friday afternoon and evening, but severe weather is not
  expected.

- Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are possible Saturday
  evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and localized
  flash flooding will be the main concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a
broad mid- to upper-level trough axis pushing toward the northeast
CONUS, leaving much of the region under zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft. With surface high pressure also filtering into the area,
today is shaping up to be a calm and pleasant June day, with
afternoon highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s. Similar
conditions will continue Friday, with afternoon highs warming
slightly into the low to mid 80s as weak mid-level riding builds
in and low-level flow returns to southerly.

A shortwave disturbance tracking across the Upper Midwest will push
a weak front through the area Friday afternoon and evening, bringing
a chance for widely scattered showers (PoPs 20-35%). Limited
moisture and instability should keep severe weather potential low,
though there may be just enough instability for a few rumbles of
thunder, especially across southeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Beyond...

Severe weather potential returns to the area Saturday as a shortwave
impulse moves through the Front Range and helps develop a surface
low over CO/WY. The low is expected to track eastward across NE/KS
through the weekend. Ahead of the approaching system, moisture will
be drawn northward across the Plains into the region, pushing
dewpoints into the 60s as afternoon highs climb into the mid to
upper 80s.

Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon, but the main round of storms is expected to arrive during
the evening and overnight hours as a large thunderstorm complex
moves into the area, supported by an increasing low-level jet
nosing into eastern NE. The primary hazards appear to be
damaging wind gusts with a bowing segment possible, though
isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado also remain possible.
Additional CAM guidance will help refine the finer details.
Thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight period,
with widespread PoPs peaking at 85-95% Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

Another primary concern Saturday will be heavy rainfall and flash
flood potential. Strong moisture transport into the area will bring
PWAT values near or above 1.75 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile of sounding climatology. Warm cloud depths around 3-4km
will support efficient rainfall rates. Latest NBM guidance shows a
70-90% probability of at least 1 inch of precipitation and a 30-70%
probability of at least 2 inches, with the highest probabilities
focused toward southeast Nebraska. PoPs will taper off through the
day Sunday, with continued cloud cover keeping highs in the 70s for
most locations.

Monday into next week, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more
uncertain as generally zonal flow aloft persists and any subtle
embedded shortwave disturbances drive precipitation chances. With no
strong forcing evident at this time, confidence in timing and
coverage remains lower. Highs will remain in the 70s to low 80s
Monday and Tuesday before warming back into the 80s by Wednesday.
Periodic 15-30% PoPs continue Tuesday through at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Northwesterly winds will continue at 12-15 kts with a
few gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon, gradually calming under
12 kts by 19/00Z. A few clouds may traverse the area at
FL050-070. Winds will become calm and variable overnight before
shifting to southerly tomorrow morning. Isolated rain showers
may approach KOFK after 19/13Z, though confidence is too low
(30% chance) to include in the TAFs at this time given the lack
in coverage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

541
FXUS63 KGID 181727
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly light rain showers/sprinkles across portions of the
  area overnight into the morning hours.

- Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Friday (up to 30%
  chance) with the highest chances Saturday night (up to near 100%
  chance).

- There is a threat of severe storms Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night with an overnight MCS likely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

North to northeast winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas with temperatures in the 60s and
70s. A shortwave is moving overhead now resulting in showers
developing and moving across the area. While most of the activity
should be in the form of showers, an isolated thunderstorm is
possible (20% or less chance). These showers are expected to
continue past sunrise but should be mostly, if not completely, out
of the area by this afternoon. Temperatures today will be cooler
with highs in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight are expected
to mostly be in the 50s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon (up to 30%
chance) and Friday night (up to 55% chance). Storms are not expected
to be severe Friday into Friday night. Rain and storm chances
increase even more Saturday (30% to near 90% chance) and Saturday
night (up to near 100% chance). Dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s
and CAPE values will mostly range from 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg during
the day on Saturday. A low-level jet may also develop over the
area Saturday evening/overnight which will enhance storm
development. Severe storms and heavy rainfall are still a threat
with an MCS likely moving across the area Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No big/major changes of note, with a few of the minor changes
  (mainly addition of a few rain chances prior to Friday night)
  outlined in Key Message above.

- Latest trends/thoughts regarding the Saturday afternoon-night
  severe storm/heavy rain threat:
We are still 24-36 hours away from this time frame getting into
the range of most higher-res models, and as a result plenty of
uncertainties remain in the finer details including most favored
parts of our forecast area (CWA) along with storm
intensity/threats. That being said, a glance at medium range
ECMWF/GFS solutions suggest MAYBE a slightly-reduced intensity
of convective environment (mainly somewhat lower
CAPE/instability values) compared to 24 hours ago...especially
within northern/northeast portions of our CWA. Although far too
soon to "take literally", the last few hours of the 12Z RRFS
(which goes through Saturday afternoon) suggests we could have
at least spotty convection (maybe strong/severe?) develop over
our CWA during the afternoon, while a more organized/larger-
scale storm complex develops over western NE/KS by late
afternoon that would then in theory track into our CWA during
the evening (potential damaging wind threat). That`s honestly as
much "detail" this forecaster is willing to give for an event
that is still mostly 72+ hours away, but at least trend-wise,
there is SOME suggestion (also supported by CSU machine-learning
guidance) that our southern/western CWA may end up being more
"under the gun" than our northern/eastern counties.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Wed. June
 24..but heavily focused on tonight-Sunday)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
Certainly no big surprises today, as fully expected it`s been a
fairly windy day by mid-June standards...with sustained north-
northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH, and
occasional gusts reaching 40 MPH (especially in our north).
Under widespread sunshine, high temps are on track to top out
low 80s north...to mid 80s central (including Tri Cities)...to
upper 80s-low 90s within counties along/south of the KS border.
As detailed over the last 24 hours, we have deemed grasses
(fuels) to be at least slightly "too green" to justify any
higher-end fire weather concerns, but with relative humidity
(RH) bottoming out as low as 20-25% mainly in our far southern
and western CWA this afternoon-early evening, we continue to
highlight near-critical fire weather concerns in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data confirm a shortwave
trough and accompanying seasonably-strong upper level jet streak
tracking through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...fueling a
Moderate Risk of severe storms well to our east centered over
IL/IN. Meanwhile at the surface, the main surface low pressure
center (around 992 millibars) is tracking through southeast MN,
with modest cold air advection/subsidence on the backside of the
system driving our gusty north-northwest winds here locally.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although mentioned as a possibility here 24 hours ago, we have
now officially introduced either a "slight chance of showers" or
"slight chance of sprinkles" to mainly the northern half of our
CWA (as far south as roughly Highway 6) for the post-midnight
hours. These rain chances are best described as minor-but-
tricky, as especially the HRRR (with support from other models)
paints a very narrow, west-east oriented stripe of light
measurable showers across mainly our far northern counties,
while other models (such as NAMNest) are more generous bringing
at least spotty activity farther south into our area. Our
current slight/20% rain chances in our far north may ultimately
not be nearly high enough, but at least we now have some rain
mention, and again, we are not talking heavy rainfall either.
The narrow/banded nature of this precip chance is due to upper
dynamics more typically seen during the colder season (intense
upper level jet/mid-level frontogenesis). Farther south, kept
the forecast dry overnight over our southern CWA/KS counties, as
any "true" elevated thunderstorm activity should remain at least
a few counties south of our CWA (mainly south of I-70).

In other departments, winds will steadily drop off toward
sunset, with gusts easing under 20 MPH most areas by 8-9 PM, and
then averaging only 5-10 MPH from the north-northwest through
the remainder of the night. Low temps are a little tricky
depending on how abundant/thick incoming mid-high level clouds
are, but have most areas bottoming out somewhere between 56-61.


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
First of all, those same light/pesky rain chances that start
late tonight have been lingered through mid-late Thursday
morning in our latest forecast...but for now simply in the form
of a "slight chance of sprinkles" for our entire CWA. Confidence
is just too low to introduce a measurable rain chance (PoP) at
this point in time (although a FEW areas could end up picking up
a few hundredths of an inch)...and confidence in
location/placement is too low to "rule out" any areas
either...with the HRRR mainly focused across our
northern/eastern counties while the NAMNest is more broad-
brushed in coverage. In summary: do not be caught off guard by s
few passing sprinkles or light rain showers Thurs AM.

By afternoon, high confidence in a return to dry conditions
CWA-wide as clouds decrease and give way to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Although not as windy as today for sure,
north/northwesterly wind speeds were nudged up slightly from
previous forecast, with much of the day now looking like
sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts around 20 MPH. High temps were nudged
up very slightly, but should still end up 3-8 degrees cooler
than today...ranging from upper 70s-low 80s in most Nebraska
counties, and mid 80s in our KS counties along with Furnas
County area.

Thursday evening-overnight, maintained a dry forecast as any
possible late-night showers are most favored to develop at least
slightly north or northeast of our CWA. Low temps mid-upper 50s.


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although these 24 hours should be MOSTLY DRY, weak upper waves
working through west-northwest flow aloft, in combination with
at least modest levels of instability returning northward into
our area (mainly elevated instability) has resulted in the
introduction of low-end shower/thunderstorm chances for the
daytime, and the continuation of chances for Friday night.
Although SPC has refrained from putting any of our CWA in a
Marginal Risk at this time, CAPE/deep layer wind shear appears
sufficient to possibly support a few stronger storms with mainly
a smaller hail threat (something to watch). Temp-wise, highs are
aimed very similar to Thursday (low-mid 80s), but with slightly
warmer lows Fri night mainly upper 50s-mid 60s.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Already covered some ATTEMPTED convective/severe thunderstorm
threat details in the "big picture" comments section above
(refer to that if you skipped over it), but the bottom line is
that especially the late afternoon-overnight hours remain a
concern for severe storms and possibly localized flooding as as
low amplitude upper wave interacts with an increasingly
moist/unstable airmass marked by surface dewpoints rising into
at least the mid 60s...with lower-level forcing provided by a
strong southerly low level jet. Hopefully more exact
timing/location/intensity details gradually become more clear as
this time frame enters the scope of higher-res models over the
next few days. High temps again similar to previous
days...mainly low-mid 80s but with upper 80s far
south/southwest.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Compared to 24 hours ago, latest ECMWF/GFS are more suggestive
that any severe storm threat should be shunted south-through-
west of our CWA in the wake of a weak cold front (likely
convective-outflow driven) from Saturday night. That being said,
at least low chances for showers/weak storms remain in the
forecast.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Keeping it very broad-based/basic here, the ECMWF/GFS keep us
under persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft, with occasional
low amplitude waves passing by. As a result, it should be mostly
dry but with occasional shower/thunderstorm chances. Severe
weather wise, instability looks fairly low for Mon-Tues but
MAYBE picks back up for Wednesday. Obviously a LOT of
uncertainty in any kind of mid- week severe chances next week.
Temperature-wise, highs all three days are currently aimed mid
70s-low 80s for most of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

No significant aviation hazards are expected across the next 24
hours. Skies should remain ceiling free (few to scattered) with
bases not threatening any sort of non VFR conditions.
Visibilities are also expected to remain >6SM. Precipitation
will be highly unlikely through the night with a broad 10-20%
chance after 12z (not enough confidence yet for even a PROB30
group mention at this time.

Winds out of the north to northwest this afternoon will continue
to gust up to 20-25kts until weakening this evening and
tonight. Speeds between 0-15z are expected to remain mostly calm
and variable as directions gradually spin clockwise and around
towards a south-southeastely direction for Friday afternoon.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion