Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

919
FXUS63 KOAX 242319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms are expected this evening/tonight,
  particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday
  night/Saturday morning, limited to northeastern Nebraska.

- Expect very hot and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday as
  highs reach into the 90s to low 100s each day and heat index
  values approach 105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The forecast period starts out with a weak upper ridge over southern
Wyoming/northern Colorado. A weak shortwave crosses into the region
this evening/tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92 as the
system rolls through. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and DCAPE
values of 800-1200 J/kg are expected for areas along and south of a
line from the Omaha Metro to York. Wouldn`t entirely rule out a
strong storm or two developing with mainly a wind threat,
particularly for areas south of Lincoln this evening/tonight.

Thursday brings a shift in the pattern as a couple of weak shortwave
troughs moves across the Wyoming/Colorado border, shifting us into
more of a zonal flow pattern through Friday. Expect a slight cool
down as temperatures rise mainly into the 70s, with a few isolated
80s possible along portions of the Missouri River. As the shortwaves
move through Nebraska, there will be a chance (20-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms. These chances are expected to taper off west to
east by Thursday morning.

We maintain zonal flow Friday with a deepening upper low over the
Aleutian Islands and the PACNW. Expect this to be the last cool-ish
day for awhile, with highs ranging form the mid-70s to mid-80s.

Heading into the weekend, the upper low will push ashore over the
West Coast, although there is still some uncertainty in where it
will eventually come ashore. A broad upper trough will extend from
the West Coast to the Rockies, amplifying a ridge over the Midwest
and putting the Great Plains under southwest flow. Saturday highs
will reach into the mid to upper 80s. Sunday and beyond, forecasted
high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s to low 100s. Heat
index values for many areas will range from 96-105. Southwest flow
remains over us through the extended forecast. A few disturbances
are expected to move into the plains, which could ultimately give us
a chance for a few showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light
northwest winds will slowly shift towards the northeast
overnight into Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
in the forecast late tonight into Thursday afternoon. At this
time, forecast model guidance keeps the bulk of activity south
of LNK, mainly across northeast Kansas, through most of the
period. To the north of this, widely scattered showers with a
few thunderstorms are possible late tonight and into Thursday.
With thunderstorm coverage being limited and with model timing
inconsistencies, confidence is low on aviation impacts at area
terminals. While chances are low overall (10-30%), if a shower
or thunderstorm impacts a terminal any impacts are expected to
be short-lived. Brief visibility reductions and gusty, shifting
winds would be the main concern outside of lightning. Forecast
trends will continue to be monitored for weather inclusion in
the TAF forecast should confidence increase in any aviation
impacts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

568
FXUS63 KGID 242042
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
342 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered off and on Thunderstorms will impact the area
  tonight, as well as throughout the day and night on Thursday.


- While a marginally severe thunderstorm is possible with hail
  to the the size of quarters and winds to 60 mph, widespread
  severe storms are not expected.

- Cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms will keep
  Thursday well below (nearly 20 degrees) normal for the end of
  June.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The Central Plains sits under weakly tilted northwesterly flow,
that will become more zonal over time. This will cause the
remainder of the work week to be active with scattered showers
and thunderstorms persisting off and on throughout. Activity
will begin to ramp up this evening, peaking during the day
Thursday and tapering off overnight Thursday into Friday
morning. The instability is better off to the west, which will
keep the strongest storms away from the area.

As of this AFD issuance, there is a persistent thunderstorm
moving southeast across the sandhills of Nebraska. High-
resolution internal Ensemble WoFS shows this thunderstorm
tracking south and east towards Grand Island and further
southeast. This thunderstorm is really riding the instability
gradient southeast and generally has about 500-1000 J/Kg to work
with, meanwhile shear is plentiful.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase into the
overnight hours, which is supported by a variety of model
solutions and it will persist in an off and on nature. Due to
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, expect
temperatures to be cool - highs in the 60s to low 70s...which is
about 20 degrees below normal for the end of June.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the area during the
day Friday.

Moving into the weekend, a trough begins to dig in to the
Pacific Northwest and the upper level pattern for the Central
Plains switches to southwesterly as ridging builds into the Ohio
valley by early next week. This pattern change will cause winds
to become southerly and breezy at times, and for moisture
transport to increase. Temperatures will warm back into the
summer like temperatures with highs in the 90s expected for the
weekend and early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered cloud cover at both terminals this afternoon. This
evening into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to enter the area from the west. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be at KEAR between 02-06z. There is a fairly
tight east-west gradient in thunderstorm activity, and while
KGRI has the potential for thunderstorms, it is less than that
of KEAR overnight. After the initial thunderstorms some
stratiform precip may impact the terminals and linger overnight
before dissipating before sunrise. Winds will remain light and
variable, and when slightly stronger with a easterly component.
There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms beyond
this TAF period into Thursday afternoon and evening, but this
looks scattered in nature, and not well organized. Ceilings will
be be VFR for much of the period, but some MVFR ceilings are
possible with the thunderstorms.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion