Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

311
FXUS63 KOAX 141918
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week,
  particularly tonight and Friday.

- Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between
  systems.

- Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with
  agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows
  Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today and Tonight...

A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln,
Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud
deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the
low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought
warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought
plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30
percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm
temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire
danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will
remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions
are worst, until 9 PM tonight.

The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the
forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk
for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast
Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have
pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the
forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms
do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have
a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could
hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the
entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional
shear could allow storms to become severe.  Large hail and damaging
wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are
able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early
morning hours.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will
move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska
Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms
through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the
north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern
Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the
evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe
storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the
region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday,
warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs
Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Beyond...

Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the
week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an
attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough
over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the
area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler
air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still
uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of
everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected,
with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty
in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to
monitor the forecast for potential changes.

Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend.
Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over
north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to
the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an
eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of
the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday
night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from
the mid-20s to the mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A warm front draped across the region will make for a tricky
wind forecast this afternoon. KOMA and KLNK currently reside
right along the front, with light and variable winds. Expect the
front to push farther north this afternoon, bringing
southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible this evening and
overnight. While the best chance for strong to severe storms
will likely remain south and east of the TAF sites, a few weaker
storms could develop farther north. The best chance for thunder
at KOMA, KLNK, and KOFK will likely be after 06Z tonight and
into Wednesday morning, however confidence in storm location is
too low to include a mention at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

820
FXUS63 KGID 141807
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
107 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather today: the overall-highest fire weather concerns
  will target our NE/KS counties along and south of the state
  line, where outright-critical conditions are likely due to the
  combination of stronger southwest winds gusting at least
  25-35 MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 15-20
  percent. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from
  Noon until 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of
  the Nebraska-Kansas border.

- Spotty thunderstorms this evening-tonight ("sneaky" severe?):
  Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will be possible
  almost anywhere in our forecast area. While the vast majority
  of this hit-or-miss activity should be fairly weak, a few
  storms could MAYBE become strong to marginally-severe, capable
  of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or
  wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. However, the vast majority of
  potential severe weather this evening and overnight will
  surely focus slightly east of our forecast area altogether.

- On the very edge of another severe storm risk Friday:
  Another chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday afternoon and
  evening for mainly the eastern half of our forecast area. It
  is still too early to determine whether any threat for severe
  storms might exist for our area, or instead concentrate
  slightly off to our south and east.

- Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our
  entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds
  Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30
  MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely.

- Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward:  Each
  afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical
  fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least
  parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire
  weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on
  Thursday.

- Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: For
  those who already have concerns for freezing temperatures and
  impacts to gardening or irrigation systems, at least slightly
  sub-freezing temperatures appear possible Saturday morning,
  but are probably more likely Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY
  ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Wednesday):

- In the interest of time, really going to keep the focus here
  on these first 36 hours. For anything beyond that, the
  highlights are covered in KEY MESSAGES above.

- That being said, one thing worth pointing out in the longer
  term is the CONSIDERABLE uncertainty that still exists for
  Friday`s strong cold frontal passage timing, and the resultant
  impact on high temperatures, severe thunderstorm potential
  etc. At this time, the NAM/ECMWF are noticeably faster with
  this frontal passage than the GFS, which if the faster
  solution were to verify could render our currently-forecast
  high temps at least 10+ degrees too warm, and also more
  solidly shunt any severe storm risk in the afternoon- evening
  at least slightly south- through east of our CWA (SPC
  officially barely clips our southeast edges with their latest
  Day 4 "Slight Risk equivalent/15% area).

- For all fire-weather related concerns (including today`s Red
  Flag Warning), see separate Fire Weather section below for
  more details.

-- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through late
 Wed afternoon/early evening):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM/general comments:
Although a rogue strong thunderstorm developed late yesterday
afternoon/early evening in our far northern CWA (affecting
mainly Greeley County), as expected we remained both well-
southwest and well-northwest of the main rounds of severe storms
in the greater region. We will likely remain very slightly west
of the main threat areas over these next 24-36 hours, but close
enough to at least modest elevated instability that a few
"surprise" strong to even marginally-severe storms cannot be
ruled out.

Early this morning, all is quiet across the CWA, as we reside
under almost entirely clear skies. In the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
continued broad southwesterly flow aloft, with the first of two
primary/large-scale upper troughs of the week very slowly
approaching from the Intermountain West/Rockies. At the surface,
a weak but fairly well defined low pressure center (around 1002
millibars) resides over our KS zones. Due to the position of
this low, a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented quasi-
stationary front bisects our southern CWA, separating light-but
steady northerly breezes to its north, from light and generally
southerly breezes to its south. Low temps are on track to bottom
out within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas (except
closer to 60 far southeast around Mitchell County KS).


- TODAY (through around 6-7 PM):
Although we bring in some small chances (mainly 20-30%) for
spotty showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon, odds strongly
favor the vast majority of our CWA staying rain-free through at
least 6-7 PM. Aloft, the main upper system will approach from
the CO area, causing another surface low pressure center to take
shape over mainly northwest KS by late in the day. The trickiest
part of today`s forecast really boils down to the exact position
of the aforementioned quasi-stationary front, which is expected
to remain very near the NE/KS border through much of the day,
but perhaps TRY lifting north up toward Highway 6. To the north
of the front, generally east-northeasterly breezes 10-20 MPH
will prevail with high temperatures mainly in the 70s-low 80s,
while south of the boundary, gusty southwest winds will develop
(gusts easily 25-35 MPH especially in KS), allowing temps to
soar into the mid-upper 80s and promoting resultant fire weather
concerns.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
As the night wears on, the main upper trough/mid level closed
low will track closer, reaching the NE/KS/CO border area by
sunrise Wednesday. At the surface, another low pressure center
will track eastward through our southern CWA, reaching roughly
the Hebron area by sunrise. As this low tracks through, it will
keep that same generally west-east frontal boundary in place
through much of the night, with northeasterly winds prevailing
over most of our CWA to its north, and southerly breezes into at
least the first part of the night in our far south, but even
there eventually turning more northerly/northwesterly as the
surface low tracks east.

In terms of convective/rain potential, high-res models such as
from HRRR/NAMNest clearly keep the main threat for any severe
storms (especially surface-based ones) slightly east-through-
southeast of our CWA..more within the main low-level instability
axis and low-level jet axis. However, this forecaster is still
a little concerned that we get see a rogue strong to marginally-
severe storm or two overnight (likely of the elevated variety),
as the increased lift from the approaching trough interacts
with pockets of at least 500-1000 J/kg elevated CAPE (possibly
upward of 1500 J/kg in our far southeast), in the presence of
very strong deep-layer shear on the order of 60-70+KT. In
theory, any spotty severe in our area would favor our extreme
southeast fringes (where SPC did introduce a Marginal Risk/level
1), but feel that almost anywhere (even our west) could see a
rogue, marginally-severe hail threat as lift impinges upon the
elevated instability.

All that being said, the actual COVERAGE of storms in our CWA
this evening-overnight will be isolated-to-scattered at best,
and thus kept PoPs fairly modest.

Low temps tonight are aimed fairly similar to this morning...most
places upper 40s-low 50s.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
Over the course of the day, the main upper low/trough axis
tracks directly through the heart of our CWA/general region from
west-to-east, reaching the IA/NE border area by sunset. As the
associated surface low tracks east in tandem, our breezes will
turn more west-northwesterly at generally 10-15 MPH with some
higher gusts. Precip/storm-wise, "in theory" we do not have a
severe threat, and the coverage of any showers/storms should
again be isolates/scattered at best. HOWEVER, pockets of
lingering instability to at least 500 J/kg, aided by cooling
aloft from the deep trough passing overhead, have been known to
produce "surprise" marginally-severe storms with perhaps a hail
threat or even a random funnel cloud (probably not reaching the
ground) in these kind of setups around here, so that probably
cannot be totally ruled out. Kept modest PoPs going across much
of our CWA, but overall-highest chances currently appear to
focus/near north of I-80. Any lingering activity should depart
our far eastern counties by 5-7 PM.

In other departments, high temps were nudged down slightly...most
places aimed between 71-75 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found
in the Fire section below.

Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will
gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this
afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this
afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end
potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound
moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely
should stay precipitation free, but there`s about a 10% chance
for development in far northern counties of the forecast area
around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north.

As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves
off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south
into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure
develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the
vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on
Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on
the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm
and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to
develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap
in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a
bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for
increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to
provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but
would require significant moisture transport and pooling through
a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now,
forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm
development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance
with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a
short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there
is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop
and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that
precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few
wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how
quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system
does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north
central KS.

After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good
model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system
tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday.
This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic
spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the
northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe
storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the
storm system, and current indications suggest a higher
likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so
we`ll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull
better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also
be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the
greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast
area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong
winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it
could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into
Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of
slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at
least into the first couple days of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The wind for the most part should remain out of the northeast at
KEAR and KGRI through the evening with the strongest winds this
afternoon. Eventually the wind will become northerly late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a surface low tracks south of
the area. Eventually we expect breezy northwesterly winds by
Wednesday afternoon after the low pressure system passes by.

The primary aviation concern is the chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly tonight into Wednesday morning with the
most likely time frame being late Wednesday morning through
around the noon hour as the surface low passes through. Will
continue with the VFR conditions for now, but can not rule out
periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Unlike yesterday`s more widespread critical fire weather
conditions that affected most of our CWA, today`s main threat
area will be more focused near and especially south of the NE/KS
border...to the south of a relatively sharp, west- southwest to
east- northeast oriented quasi-stationary front. South of this
front, a hot/deeply mixed airmass will exist with temps at least
mid-upper 80s and southwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH
(40 MPH probably cannot be ruled out, especially in KS). Given
these winds and relative humidity (RH) expected to crash down
between 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are likely to
develop. As a result, the previous Fire Weather Watch was
"upgraded" to a Red Flag Warning for our 6 KS counties, and we
also tacked on most of our adjacent Nebraska counties along the
state line. At least near-critical conditions with slightly
higher RH/slightly lighter winds will probably extend another
1-2 counties north of the Warning (at least getting into some of
our Highway 6 counties in Nebraska).

- THURSDAY:
Following somewhat of a break in fire weather concerns on
Wednesday due to slightly cooler temps/lighter winds, concerns
return in earnest already Thursday afternoon-early evening as
high temperatures again jump into at least the low-mid 80s in
the presence of southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting
at least 25 MPH (probably higher). Relative humidity is
currently forecast to fall to as low as 10-20% for most of our
CWA, making this a decent candidate for our next Warning
day...particularly in the western half of our area.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
Despite cooler temperatures than the last few days and those on
Thursday, each of these days will likely feature at least
limited coverage of near- critical conditions, with pockets of
outright- critical possible. More details will be provided as
these days get closer in time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion