Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

733
FXUS63 KOAX 282322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat is expected today and Monday, with heat index
  values reaching 105 to 110 degrees in some areas. Overnight
  minimum heat index values remain in the upper 70s and low 80s.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Tuesday
  evening, especially across northeast Nebraska.

- Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with
  occasional evening and overnight storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Today and Tonight...

Objective analysis this afternoon shows a mid- to upper-level low
over the Pacific Northwest, with amplified troughing across much of
the western CONUS. Downstream of this feature, strong mid- to upper-
level ridging is building into the central Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley, with the ridge axis centered near the Mid-South.
This is bringing the first day of extreme heat to the area. A warm
front has lifted north through the region, and behind it, skies are
clearing and temperatures are quickly rising. Temperatures have
already reached the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the
area as of 12 PM, climbing around 20 degrees since sunrise.
Highs are expected to peak in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees
this afternoon.

Humidity will add to the uncomfortable conditions as strong
southerly low-level flow, including surface wind gusts of 25 to
35 mph, ushers in dewpoints in the 70s. Portions of southwest
Iowa may see dewpoints climb into the lower 80s, aided by
evapotranspiration. This will push heat index values into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon, with the highest values
favored across southwest Iowa and the lowest towards the Norfolk
and Columbus, Nebraska areas. Little relief is expected
overnight, with minimum apparent temperatures only falling into
the mid 70s to lower 80s. This will make it difficult for
uncooled homes to release the day`s heat. With this in mind, an
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for southwest Iowa and
the Omaha metro, with a Heat Advisory in effect farther west.

Monday...

Temperatures Monday will be very similar to today, with
afternoon highs again peaking in the mid to upper 90s and heat
index values in the 100 to 110 degree range. The highest values
are once again favored across southwest Iowa, where dewpoints
will be higher. Lower heat index values, potentially dipping
into the upper 90s, are expected across northeast Nebraska where
dewpoints remain lower. Southerly winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph
will continue. Given this, the Heat Advisory will be allowed to
expire for portions of northeast Nebraska, while the remaining
Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory continue into Tuesday.

On Monday, a mid-level jet steak and compact shortwave disturbance
will round the base of the aforementioned trough, which will be
centered near the Intermountain West, and eject into the northern
Plains. This feature will drape a cold front from an associated
surface low in Minnesota southwestward into east-central
Nebraska towards a secondary surface low. However, this front
will have little impact on temperatures. Instead, it will bring
our next chance for precipitation and perhaps a few strong to
severe storms, though some uncertainty remains with storm
timing.

Ahead of the front, a very unstable air mass is expected to develop,
with MUCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg. Shear and forcing for ascent will
be the limiting factors, especially early in the period. There is a
conditional potential for storms to develop along the front during
the afternoon or early evening. If this occurs, storms could
initially become surface-based supercells capable of all severe
hazards before quickly growing upscale. However, forcing for ascent
will be on the weaker side until later in the evening, when the LLJ
strengthens and stronger mid-level flow improves shear profiles.
This would favor more of an upscale convective cluster and damaging
wind threat (DCAPE > 1500 J/kg), especially across northeast
Nebraska. Latest CAM guidance has increased confidence that
convection will occur, but solutions remain split on when initiation
takes place. PoPs currently peak in the 30-60% range.

Tuesday and Beyond...

By Tuesday, the aforementioned jet streak moving into the northern
Plains will help nudge the ridge slightly eastward, leaving the area
along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. As a result,
temperatures will ease slightly, with highs in the lower to mid 90s
Tuesday through Thursday and dewpoints generally in the lower 60s
and lower 70s. This will keep heat index values in the 95 to 105
degree range, with the highest values once again favored across
southwest Iowa.

Daily evening and overnight storm chances continue through at least
Thursday as the nocturnal LLJ feeds moisture and elevated
instability into the region along the edge of the ridge. Strong to
severe storms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening
as a shortwave trough pivots from the Front Range into the northern
Plains. Another very unstable air mass will be in place, with
better forcing for ascent and more favorable shear profiles expected
across northeast Nebraska. PoPs of 30-55% are in place. GEFS and EPS-
EPS-AIFS based machine learning guidance continue to indicate a 5-
15% probability of severe weather each day through at least
Wednesday. Details will likely hinge on smaller-scale shortwave
tracks and mesoscale features. Any convection could locally temper
the heat through cloud cover and outflow, bringing lower confidence
in daily high temperatures in this range, but the broader hot
and humid pattern is expected to persist.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to hang around into the
holiday weekend, with a slight reinvigoration Friday and Saturday as
the mid-level height rises slide back westward into the region. This
may push highs back in the upper 90s, with a few locations
potentially touching 100 degrees. Heat index are expected to reach
the 100 to 110 degree range. However, a shortwave disturbance
pushing into the northern Plains Saturday may bring another day of
thunderstorms chances, and a cold front sweeping through to
temporarily drop Sunday highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s. We
will have to monitor how the shortwave trends as it approaches.

The overall ridge and hot pattern does not look to break down
anytime soon, as CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continue to
favor above-average temperatures across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Breezy southerly winds are expected to linger through the night,
with LLWS developing overnight. At FL018, southerly winds will
be blowing out of the south at about 50 knots with sfc winds
closer to 15 knots. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies to
linger over the next 18 hours before partly cloudy skies develop
on Monday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-034-044-045-
     050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012.
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-055.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

631
FXUS63 KGID 282347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for a few of our
  east/southeast counties until 10PM tonight
  (Hamilton/Adam/Webster/Smith/Osborne counties) with counties
  including and south of Polk and Clay in NE and Jewell in KS
  now in effect until 9PM Monday.

- Highs Monday will again be expected to peak in the 90s to low
  100s across the area with heat index values as high as 100-107
  possible within the Advisory area.

- A few storms may pop up along a passing cold front Monday
  afternoon to night. It is uncertain how expansive the coverage
  of storms may become, though the best potential currently
  looks to be concentrated more towards the central to eastern
  portions of the area.

- The strongest storms Monday afternoon/evening may be capable
  of producing wind gusts in exceedance of 60MPH with hail up to
  the size of quarters possible.

- The rest of the week will look to maintain highs between the
  upper 80s to low 100s with occasional off-and-on period of
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026


Warm and humid air has made its push into the area today following
the passage of a warm front this morning. Temperatures in the 90s to
low 100s today with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s have helped
inflate heat index values to as high as 100-107 across far eastern
portions of the area (places with the higher humidity and under the
heat advisory). In terms of heat relief tonight for areas south and
east of the Tri-Cities, temperatures will not be expected to drop
below the upper 70s to low 80s (warmest lows across a few Kansas
locations or Nebraska areas near and east of HWY-81).

The main change this forecast cycle has been the decision to locally
extend the furthest eastern row of counties within today`s heat
advisory (Mitchell to Clay to Polk counties) until 9PM Monday. This
decision comes as heat indices may once again near/exceeded 105
degrees Monday afternoon for these locations with limited overnight
heat relief expected tonight into Monday morning. The latest forecast
now highlights similar temperatures returning (possibly a degree or
two lower than today) with lingering moisture content (upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints) that will keep conditions fairly similar on
Monday. The one saving grace that could provide some heat relief may
come from the presence of gusty southerly winds or even a few
clouds building in during the later afternoon hours.

The southerly winds today will continue to increase this evening and
overnight as wind speeds are expected to peak near 20-25MPH with
gusts as high as 30-35+. These breezy condition should stick around
for much of the night. Gusty winds lingering into the day Monday
will later settle for much of the central to northwestern portions
of the area. Far southern and eastern portions of the area,
however, may still retain periods of gusty winds during the
afternoon and evening hours (up to 25-35MPH gusts possible).
Thankfully, the areas expected to have the greatest heat and
humidity impacts will also be some of the same areas that likely
receive these gusty winds or even some scattered cloud coverage
later on.

Confidence regarding the storm potential for Monday afternoon to
night has began to narrow some. A few storms, some of which may
become severe, could form as a cold front passes through from west
to east. Though a few storms could possibly fire off anywhere along
this front (The NAMNEST model is more aggressive with storm coverage
than some of the other models), the general consciences places the
better storm potential across primarily the central (Tri-Citries
area) as well as eastern to northern portions of the area (locations
with the higher humidity and convective environment). Given the hot
temperatures, MUCAPE values of up to 2,000-4,000J/kg would be
available for storms to take advantage of as well as some 35-55kts
of bulk shear in regards to increased support from the mid-to-upper
level jet. A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be in place across
most places (besides a few west/northwest portions of the area) with
the greatest severe threat mainly falling between 5PM and 3AM Monday
night. The main severe hazard with the stronger storms will be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60MPH. Hail up to the size of
quarters may still be possible, though the hail threat will not be
as significant.

Taking a step back to observe the synoptic environment, we
observe a Northern Rockies center trough off to our northwest
with a Southeast U.S. ridge resting southeast of the area. These
two features will keep the mid-to-upper level jet nearby (just
northwest of the local area) for now. This wave pattern will
soon look to resemble a wetter signal with several shortwave
disturbances, embedded within the jet, possible to pop out of
the flow. These off-and-on disturbances could stir up a few
sporadic thunderstorm activity. The forecast for much of the
rest of the week now features at least minor PoPs across some
portion of the forecast area every afternoon to night. Besides
the occasional thunderstorm chances, the temperature forecast
continues to keep highs in the upper 80s and 90s each day. Later
on in the week (Friday and Saturday) a few southern Nebraska
and Kansas locations may see highs near the tipple digits once
more.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. As a low
pressure center emerges from the foothills of the Rockies,
surface winds will rotate counterclockwise slightly before
returning to Southerly. As this cyclone progresses into the
area, surface winds will increase in magnitude throughout the
morning and afternoon hours, with gusts up to 30-35kts.

Low-level wind shear is also expected tonight (2-13Z), as the
low-level jet intensifies atop these gusty surface winds. The
predominantly southerly flow around 1500ft will veer, while
increasing to 50-55kts around 1000ft (and 55-60kts at 2000ft).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ063-075-085.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for NEZ049-064-076-077-086-
     087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-018.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion