50°F
Updated:
5/21/2026
02:55:25am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
814 FXUS63 KOAX 210525 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1225 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers are possible overnight (30-60% chance), mainly across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. - Widespread showers and few thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into Friday. Severe weather is not expected. - Temperatures trend warmer this weekend, with mostly dry conditions expected for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Tonight through Friday... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis show weak troughing across the western and central CONUS, resulting in generally southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Increasing moisture advection tonight will bring a 30-60% chance of rain to areas mainly south of Interstate-80. Showers should remain light, with rainfall amounts limited to a few hundredths of an inch. A small pocket of MUCAPE will also bring a few rumbles of thunder into the area. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 40s. Cloud cover and cooler conditions will persist through Thursday, with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s, about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than seasonal norms. A brief lull in precipitation chances is expected Thursday afternoon and evening before becoming more widespread Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave disturbance pivots across the Front Range into the northern Plains. PoPs peak at 75-95% late Friday morning. Additional spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected later in the day as a cold front pushes through. There appears to be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder, but severe weather is not expected. Rain chances will gradually taper off Friday afternoon and evening, with highs again topping out in the low to mid 60s. Latest NBM guidance shows a widespread 70-90% probability for at least 0.25 inch of precipitation, along with a 40-70% probability of at least 0.50 inch through the period. Saturday and Beyond... A warming trend will take hold through the weekend as mid-level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. Highs will climb into the low 70s on Saturday, low 80s on Sunday, and generally the mid 80s from Memorial Day into the start of next week. The weekend looks mostly dry. Confidence in the large-scale pattern decreases through the remainder of next week. Long-range guidance suggests a trough may move in from the western CONUS by mid to late week, though considerable spread remains in the timing and track of this features, leading to uncertainty in any additional precipitation chances. For now, periodic 15-30% PoPs persist through much of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 VFR conditions start out the TAF period, with a few showers wafting south of KOMA/KLNK as easterly to southeasterly winds continue at less than 10 kts. Those southeasterly winds will continue to increase in coverage over the next 12 hours, with speeds increasing over 10 kts by 18z. Starting 22-02z, MVFR ceilings will build in from the southwest, with scattered showers/drizzle moving in at 02z near KOFK while KOMA/KLNK have to wait until after 06z tomorrow night. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
255 FXUS63 KGID 210701 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 201 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated showers today will be followed by more scattered activity in the evening. A more robust and widespread cluster of showers and weak thunderstorms will come late tonight into Friday morning (best potential between 3-11AM Friday). - Around 0.25-0.5" of precipitation will be possible to fall across the area through Friday afternoon. The rest of the weekend (starting Friday evening) should remain mostly dry. - Highs today in the 60s will gradually raise up to the mid to upper 80s again by Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 A few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms will pass through the area today with increasing precipitation coverage and potential reserved for the evening and especially the late night to Friday morning timeframe (best potential between 3-11AM). The area continues to reside underneath broad southwest flow from the presence of weak ridging over the eastern half of the U.S. and broad troughing across the intermountain west region. A momentum transfer taking place today from an advancing southern Idaho to northern Utah centered jet streak, will dislodge a shortwave trough out into the Central Plains region by Friday morning. This disturbance will kick up a cluster of showers and storms overnight tonight that will approach the area by early Friday morning (from a mix of isentropic and CVA based assent). Between 0.25-0.5" of precipitation will be possible to fall across the overnight to Friday afternoon period (the greatest precipitation amounts will be concentrated to the north and west). Though modest shear will be present from the presence of the mid-to-upper level disturbance (40-50kts of Bulk Shear), weak instability (
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