Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

778
FXUS63 KOAX 171750
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible this morning, followed by highs in the
  90s to near 100 today. Isolated showers are also possible
  this afternoon.

- Heat builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching 100
  to 108 degrees Sunday and Monday.

- Cooler weather returns by midweek, along with increasing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Tonight and Friday...

Mid- to upper-level ridging remains in place across the central
CONUS, supporting continued warm and generally quiet
conditions. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers developed
this afternoon. Fog development is expected again overnight into
Friday morning. Forecast soundings depict a shallow saturated
layer near the surface with gusty winds above it. As a result,
fog should remain patchy and largely confined to low-lying and
wind protected area, along with scattered areas that received
healthy rain showers this afternoon.

Temperatures will trend slightly warmer Friday, with highs
ranging from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees along the
Nebraska-South Dakota border. Continued low-level theta-e
advection and evapotranspiration will maintain muggy dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, resulting in peak heat index values
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Can`t rule out a few additional
widely scattered diurnally driven showers during the afternoon
(20% chance), generally along and south of I-80 where the better
instability resides. While instability is plentiful, shear will
remain very weak, limiting any severe weather potential and
likely keep showers relatively stationary. A localized downpour
and rumble of thunder remain the primary hazard.

Saturday through Monday...

Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as the mid-
level ridge axis shifts toward the western High Plains and warmer
850 mb temperatures spread into the region. Highs Saturday will
reach the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values generally in the
upper 90s to low 100s. Temperatures will increase further Sunday,
with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. The
warmest readings are expected across northeast Nebraska, while heat
index values range from the upper 90s to around 106 degrees.

Sunday, a shortwave trough pushing into the northern Plains is
expected to initiate overnight convection, potentially
organizing into an MCS. Ensemble guidance has consistently kept
the strongest signal north of the forecast area, primarily
across South Dakota. However, some of this activity could graze
northeast Nebraska, where PoPs of 15% remain in place Sunday
night. The disturbance will also help push a cold front into the
area Sunday. Despite the name, the front is not expected to
provide much relief, though it may lower dewpoints by a degree
or two across northeast Nebraska.

Monday continues to have the warmest temperatures in the
forecast, with widespread highs from 99 to 105 degrees and peak
heat index values from 100 to around 108 degrees. The highest
heat index values are expected across southwest Iowa, where
dewpoints will be the highest. Confidence in Monday`s
temperatures is slightly lower due to the potential for
overnight convection to the north. A southward shift in
convection or lingering cloud cover could limit daytime heating.

Heat headlines will likely be needed for portion of the period. Heat
index values are generally near Heat Advisory criteria, with
overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s, providing little
relief. The duration of the heat and warm overnight temperatures
will support widespread High HeatRisk, particularly Sunday and
Monday.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances are
expected during the period as a shortwave trough pushing into the
northern Plains dampens the ridge and pushes another cold front
through the area Monday night. Highs Tuesday are still expected to
reach the low to mid 90s, with high temperatures falling into the
80s Wednesday and Thursday as cooler air and cloud cover returns to
the region. The best precipitation chances currently appear to be
Wednesday night into Thursday, when another shortwave passage
supports PoPs of 30-50%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. By this time
yesterday afternoon the cumulus cloud field was much more
expansive with signs of vertical growth, which eventually lead
to the afternoon showers and thunderstroms. It`s looking a bit
drier this afternoon, but we can`t rule out a pop up shower
between 21-00z at KOMA or KLNK. The chance for that is about
10%.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-016-
     017.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Franks

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

877
FXUS63 KGID 171831
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
131 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather continues through the weekend, peaking on Monday
  with highs in the 100s. Widespread heat index values in the
  100s are expected on Monday.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible (15%) Saturday
  afternoon-evening. Strong/severe storms are not expected.

- Cooler (seasonable) weather expected Tuesday onwards with
  highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.

- Scattered shower/storm chances (15-45%) return mid-late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the upper 80s
to low 90s, and are expected to top out in the low-mid 90s. Aloft a
ridge remains in place over the eastern Rockies/western Plains. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with clear skies and
light winds.

Highs climb into the mid 90s on Saturday with light winds shifting
to the east as a weak front slides into the area. Isolated to
perhaps scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15%)
Saturday afternoon for areas mainly along/north of Interstate 80.
Weak shear should keep any shower/storm brief and non-severe. Any
shower/storm will dissipate around sunset as instability wanes.

Heat increases on Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s. Sunny
skies and light winds make for an unpleasant day for those outdoors.
Heat index values climb to around 100 degrees, but look to fall
short of reaching heat advisory criteria (105 degrees). Areas most
favored to experience 100 degree heat index values will be along and
north of I-80.

Monday remains on track to be the hottest day of the forecast
period. Forecast highs are currently in the low 100s, which would be
the first 100 degree day this year for most portions of the forecast
area. Highs combined with dewpoints in the 60s will result in
widespread heat index values in the 100s. At least a portion if not
the entire area will likely need a heat advisory on Monday, but will
defer to a future shift to narrow down the exact area that is likely
to meet advisory criteria. Those with outdoor activities on Monday
will want to take breaks and drink plenty of water as sunny skies
and light winds will not provide relief from the heat.

A trough dives into the Midwest Monday night, flattening the ridge
and pushing a cold front through the area. Cooler weather is
expected Tuesday onwards with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.
As a northwesterly flow pattern sets up over the area next week, it
will bring multiple chances for precipitation to the area. Details
on these chances will become clearer as we get closer in time (most
likely late afternoon-early overnight hours). &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT mid-high level
clouds are possible this afternoon, clearing this evening with
skies remaining clear overnight. Southerly winds become light
and variable this evening through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion