Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

787
FXUS63 KOAX 310537
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of strong storms will exit the area by 4 AM Friday. A
  few could produce gusty winds and heavy rain across far
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in
  the lower to mid 80s.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Still some stronger storms working their way through the area
with some 40-50+ mph gusts, but the severe weather threat is
generally waning as outflow continues to surge southeastward
ahead of the line. Storms should exit the area by 3-4 AM with
guidance and satellite imagery hinting that we see a little
patchy fog and low cloud development behind them as the anvil
clears out into Friday morning. We`ll remain under cyclonic flow
aloft and on the back side of a surface low over IA through the
day, with guidance suggesting potential for a few spotty
showers, but nothing too impactful from that standpoint. Perhaps
more noteworthy will be the strong northerly winds. Model
soundings suggest at least 40+ kts at the top of the mixed
layer. In addition, EPS guidance shows mean wind gusts of 40-50
mph with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 50 mph. Really it will
come down to how deep we`re able to mix, and given the expected
cloud cover and precip, lean toward shallower mixing and
slightly lighter winds, but still expect 40+ mph gusts at times.
Current forecast has a few counties sitting right around Wind
Advisory criteria, but given lower confidence in degree of
mixing, going to hold off for now. Otherwise, we`ll be much
cooler with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday will remain mild with dry weather expected as the
trough/low push farther east and surface high pressure builds
in. We`ll start to warm back up Sunday with strengthening
southerly flow on the back side of the high and upper level
ridging building back in. Expect highs in the 80s to around 90
on Sunday, followed by mid 80s to mid 90s on Monday.

By Monday night into Tuesday, we`ll start to see influence of a
larger scale trough to our north while a cold front starts
edging southward. Still a decent amount of spread on exact
timing of when that front gets here, but when it does, it`ll
bring our next chance of showers and storms. Guidance also
suggests it stalls over or just south of the forecast area,
while several bits of shortwave energy slide through through the
end of the week. So in general, expect a somewhat active week
with on and off shower and storm chances with temperatures in
the 80s in the northern part of the area and 90s in the south.
Machine learning severe weather guidance also suggests at least
some low end severe storm chances at times (5-10%), but still
lots of details to work out between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and storms will continue to push southeast out of the
area early in the period, clearing the TAF sites by 7-8Z. MVFR
to perhaps brief IFR ceilings are expected to stick around or
redevelop overnight and linger into early Friday afternoon
before scattering out. Could also see a few spotty showers
Friday afternoon, mainly at OMA and east. Otherwise, winds will
become northwesterly to northerly and significantly increase in
strength, gusting 25-35+ kts by around 12-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

062
FXUS63 KGID 310949
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
449 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than perhaps a few spotty light showers/sprinkles mainly
  north of I-80 this morning, today kicks off what should be
  four-straight days of effectively "guaranteed dry" weather
  lasting through Monday.

- By late-July/mid-summer standards, today will be quite breezy
  (some will say windy)...with north winds commonly sustained
  15-25+ MPH/gusts 25-35+ MPH.

- Those same north winds will usher in somewhat drier/less humid
  air over the next few days, as we MERCIFULLY wave goodbye to
  our recent stretch of dewpoints well into the 70s (and even
  low 80s!)...with dewpoints most of the next several days
  topping out "only" 60s, and perhaps even dropping into the 50s
  especially in western counties Sunday-Monday.

- Temperature-wise: Readings these next several days will
  generally average "near-normal" for late-July/early-August
  with most places topping out somewhere mid 80s-low 90s, and
  overnight lows mainly 60s. A few of the cooler days with highs
  only low 80s at most (mainly north) look to be today and
  Wednesday, while a few of the warmer days with more of the
  area into low-mid 90s looks to be Monday.

- Precip-wise: Following our upcoming dry stretch, intermittent
  chances for showers/thunderstorms re-enter the picture Tues-
  Thurs. Far too soon to decipher details, but an early glance
  at instability/shear suggests at least limited severe
  potential.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- Honestly, no changes of note really stands out. In the "minor
  details" department, high temps through Monday were trended
  up very slightly from previous (a few degrees at most), while
  highs for Wednesday actually came down 2-4 degrees.

- From a big picture/upper air perspective, our dry weather
  through Monday will be driven by our Central Plains region
  residing under benign northerly flow aloft...directed between
  a large-scale ridge/high centered over the Desert
  Southwest...and a large-scale trough/low dominating the
  eastern half of the nation. By Tuesday into mid-week, our
  return of rain/thunderstorm chances is driven by a shortwave
  trough tracking across southern Canada and the northern tier
  of the U.S...effectively "flattening" the highly amplified
  pattern and placing our region back under quasi-zonal
  (generally westerly) flow aloft...and back in the path of
  periodic disturbances passing through.


-- FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER/TERM NEXT 48 HOURS (through
 Sat night/early Sun AM):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
As was expected, a fairly expansive/cohesive line of
thunderstorms tracked across the majority of our forecast area
(CWA) from northwest-to-southeast mainly between 730 PM-1 AM.
Fortunately, if anything this convection (thankfully)
"underperformed" in terms of severe weather (namely severe wind)
potential, with the vast majority of measured gusts on many
dozen area stations topping out no higher than 40-55 MPH. There
were only a handful of severe-criteria 58+ MPH gusts...two of
which occurred in our far northern/western counties at
Ord/Lexington airports. It was honestly a "best of both worlds"
outcome, with the limited severe weather, and MOST (not all)
affected counties receiving fairly widespread rainfall in the
0.50-1.50" range. By far the lowest rain totals fell within
counties along/south of the KS border where storms were more
spotty or in some places absent altogether.

Since the "main event" departed our far southeast counties
around 1 AM, the vast majority of the CWA has been dry. However,
a smattering of pesky showers/weak thunderstorms have developed
mainly along/south of the state line, with current radar showing
what might be the last of this activity for the morning in our
CWA tracking through the Jewell/Mitchell counties area.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm a well-defined
shortwave trough tracking east-southeast and centered from
northern NE into central MN. At the surface, the primary low
pressure center (around 1008 millibars) is over the SD/MN/IA
border area, with a trailing cold front extending down across
our CWA...marked by a shift to still-light, but evident west-
northwest breezes. Cloud-wise, while skies have cleared over
much of our area in the wake of departing convection, several
batches of lower stratus clouds are dropping southward into our
CWA out of northern NE. While some patchy (and mainly light) fog
is certainly possible yet this morning here or there, there is
little doubt that the arrival of somewhat drier air and light-
but-steady northwest breezes should "save" us from any
widespread fog issues.


- TODAY:
Starting with the highest-confidence feature: today will be
quite breezy (honestly somewhat windy) by late-July standards.
In the wake of the front, much of the day will feature sustained
north-northwest winds commonly 15-25+ MPH/gusts 25-35+
MPH...overall strongest over the northeast 1/2 of our CWA. On a
positive note, these same north winds will "tame down" our
recently very humid/soupy airmass. While not truly "refreshing"
by any means, dewpoints today will average mid-upper 60s most
places...certainly lower than lately. Of somewhat lower
confidence are cloud cover trends, resultant temperatures and an
outside shot at some very spotty light shower/sprinkle
activity. For sure, at least transient/partial batches of low
stratus will drop southward across much of our CWA especially
this morning...and probably lingering into the afternoon
especially far north and/or east. While the vast majority of
shower activity should focus at least slightly northeast of our
CWA today in closer proximity to the heart of the mid-level
low/trough tracking southeastward into IA...a few models at
least hint that a few sprinkles could catch mainly our far
northern counties mainly this morning...so have gone with a
"slight chance of sprinkles" mainly north of Neb Highway 92.
High temps will obviously depend to some degree on how
efficiently skies clear this afternoon (again general
expectation is more clouds north/east and more sun south/west),
but if anything have slightly nudged up highs...ranging from
mainly 81-85 in our northeast half...to 84-90 in our southwest
half (any low 90s mainly confined to
Furnas/Phillips/Rooks/Osborne.


- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
As the upper low departs farther southeast to along the IL/MO
border by sunrise Saturday, our region is looking at a quiet/dry
night that should in theory by clear/mostly clear...but there
are hints of some limited/random patches of low stratus still
passing southward here or there. At the surface, a high pressure
axis will slide down into mainly western NE as the night wears
on. In turn, while the seasonably-strong daytime winds will
quickly subside this evening, they will not go "truly calm"
either, with northwesterly speeds most of the night 5-10 MPH.
These light-but-steady breezes should keep fog from being much
of an issue (and it`s not in our official forecast), but
probably cannot rule out some patchy/mainly light fog here or
there especially very late in the night. Temp-wise, the lower
dewpoints will allow our area to have the coolest /most
comfortable night in over a week...lows aimed 59-63 most places.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Although still a touch breezy (not as windy as today), this
simply looks like a sunny, almost guaranteed dry and (for most
folks) a downright pleasant first day of August. Northerly winds
will average sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 (maybe 25 MPH
mainly far east). Dewpoints will lower another notch, mixing
down into the upper 50s-low 60s (lowest west). High temps were
nudged up very slightly, but still only 83-87 most places and
maybe tagging 90 in far southwest counties
(Furnas/Phillips/Rooks).

Saturday night, continued dry as light breezes generally flip
around from northerly to southerly with time. Low temps very
similar to perhaps very slightly cooler than Friday night, but
most places again aimed a few degrees either side of 60.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Tonight...

Steady southerly winds gusting as high as 20MPH early this afternoon
have helped advect in a warmer and more humid airmass today (70s to
low 80s dewpoints). Despite the excessive cloud coverage for most of
the day so far, temperatures still look to remain mostly on track to
reach the mid 80s to low 90s for much of central Nebraska.
Temperatures across some north central Kansas locations and far
southwest Nebraska areas may peak as high as the mid to upper 90s
today. The main story, however, will be of the potential for severe
weather this evening.

An upper-level shortwave trough ejecting out from eastern
Colorado/Wyoming this afternoon has lead to some mid-level pressure
falls as well as some vorticity and cold air advection across the
region. The warming temperatures at the surface paired with cooling
aloft has helped increase instability/buoyancy (up to 2,000-
3,500J/kg of MUCAPE). A 1004mb surface low deepening across central
Nebraska this evening will help steer frontogenesis across central
Nebraska and central Kansas. A cold front emerging from this process
will in turn help develop a cluster of storms. Storms organizing
into a line this afternoon, will be expected to drive southeast
through much of the area between mainly 7PM and 1AM tonight. As of
2PM today, this line of storms looks to be already taking shape in
cherry county in Nebraska based on the latest radar reflectivity
returns and the agitated cumulus observed on satellite.

A few of these storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with damaging winds being the primary concern. Given the
presence of modest deep layer shear (25-40MPH) with sufficient
instability and moisture, the base ingredients will be met for
severe storm characteristics. Though hail up to the size of quarters may
still be possible within a few of the stronger/taller storms, the
high freezing levels with more unfavorable mid-level lapse rates (5-
6C/km), should generally keep the hail threat more limited tonight.
In addition, though heavy downpours will be expected within several
of these storms (1.5-2" PWATS), given their fairly progressive
nature, the overall flooding threat should remain limited. The Storm
Prediction Center now includes the full area in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather.


Friday through Wednesday...

Following the exit of the storms tonight, the forecast remains dry
until Tuesday night (20-50% chances for central Nebraska). This
drier pattern will come as southwest U.S. ridging expands northeast
into the Central Plains over the weekend. The surface low pulling
east and away on Friday will leave behind gusty northerly winds that
may peak as high as 30-45MPH during the afternoon. Meanwhile, drier
and relatively "cooler" temperatures with keep highs peaking in the
80s for both Friday and Saturday. Higher pressure eventually
settling back in over the weekend will lighten winds with
directions becoming southerly again by Sunday. The start of the new
week will bring warming temperatures once more with highs returning
back to the mid 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through most of the
period, along with precipitation-free conditions (save for the
slightest chance of a rogue/brief light shower at some point yet
this morning). The main issues/possible concerns are:

1) The possibility for at least a few (perhaps several?) hours
of sub-VFR ceiling this morning (medium confidence) along with
perhaps a few hours of sub-VFR visibility in light fog (medium
confidence.

2) A rather breezy (arguably windy?) day by late-July standards,
with especially the afternoon featuring northerly gusts up
around 30KT.

- Sub-VFR ceiling/visibility potential:
Starting off VFR out of the gate this morning in the wake of
earlier convection. However, various models/guidance are fairly
insistent that lower clouds and/or light fog will move in from
the north and/or materialize overhead by around 10Z, with
especially sub-VFR ceiling perhaps lingering through as long as
16-18Z. As for ceiling, cannot rule out brief IFR, but have gone
with prevailing MVFR 10-18Z for now...which may not necessarily
be "non-stop" either that entire time. For the afternoon and
evening have kept any lingering lower cloud potential in SCT/FEW
groups, as at least "random" patches of lower stratus could
still be around. As for visibility, a gradual increase in north-northwesterly
breezes toward sunrise should really keep things from really
"fogging in" too badly, but especially 10-14Z could easily
feature light fog and have gone with prevailing MVFR for now.

- Wind details:
Right out of the gate EARLY this morning, a very light
speed/variable direction regime prevails. However, much of the
daytime hours will be quite breezy by mid-summer standards, with
northerly winds in the wake of a cold front increasing to around
20KT sustained/gusts 25+KT by mid-late morning...and then
peaking in the afternoon sustained around 22KT/gusts around
30KT. The evening will then bring a steady decline, with gusts
under 20KT by 01-02Z and sustained speeds under 10KT by 03Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion