15°F
Updated:
11/10/2025
07:37:29am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
913 FXUS63 KOAX 101112 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold this morning with wind chills in the single digits to teens. - Becoming much warmer this week with highs reaching the 60s to low 70s by Friday - Dry through the workweek, then increasing precipitation chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Today and Tuesday: Surface high pressure centered over the northern and central Plains early this morning will build southeast through the area today. The high pressure is associated with a cold, continental-polar air mass with 2 AM temperatures in the teens and 20s, and wind chills in the single digits and teens. The air mass will undergo partial modification today with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Some low clouds are present early this morning along and east of the MO River. However, they should dissipate prior to or shortly after daybreak with considerable sunshine expected through the remainder of the day. Tonight into Tuesday, a weak, mid-level impulse will track through the northern Plains and mid-MO Valley in tandem with an associated surface trough/weak front. Low-level warm advection is forecast to develop ahead of the mid-level wave, supporting an increase in clouds tonight into Tuesday morning. Clouds will clear behind the surface front Tuesday afternoon with downslope warming contributing to considerably warmer highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Wednesday through Friday: A mid-level ridge centered over the Rockies on Wednesday is forecast to shift east into the Great Plains Thursday. Mid-level heights begin to fall by Friday, downstream from a trough moving through the Interior West. In the low levels, a lee trough will deepen over the High Plains, with resultant southerly winds drawing an increasingly warm and moist air mass into the region, especially on Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 50s and 60s on Wednesday are expected to warm into the 60s Thursday, and 60s to low 70s Friday. This Weekend: The 00z deterministic and ensemble mean numerical guidance indicate the above-mentioned, mid-level trough moving into the central U.S. However, differences exist in the handling of the southern aspect of the trough in the form of a closed low tracking through the south-central states. That variability in the mid-level pattern translates to timing differences with associated cold front moving through our area, and the precipitation distribution along and ahead of the front. This forecast update will indicate increasing precipitation chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s Saturday cooling into the 40s by Sunday. This scenario could change between now and then once the models come into better agreement. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with increasing high-level cloudiness (FL200-250). The MVFR cloud deck that moved through KOMA early this morning currently resides between KOMA and KLNK, where it is expected to dissipate within the next couple of hours. Light northwest winds this morning are forecast to switch to southwest or south this afternoon at less than 12 kt. The exception is at KOFK where winds will strengthen to 12 kt for a few hours this afternoon. South winds will then strengthen to 12 kt by 11/03-05z at all terminal locations, at which time LLWS will also develop. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
307 FXUS63 KGID 101137 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 537 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A modest warm-up into the 40s anticipated across the local area today, with unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the area (60s & low 70s) Tuesday-Friday. - Dry weather is anticipated all week with the next chance (15-35%) for some light rain anticipated for Saturday and Sunday. - Plenty of uncertainty continues with the weekend system, but at this time, rain looks much more probable than snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Clear skies and generally light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the lower to mid teens across the majority of the forecast area early this morning - with a few single digit readings detected in mesonet data across portions of Dawson county. These are the coldest morning temps for most locations since late February. For this morning, expect temperatures to bottom out right around sunrise, with a rebound into the 40s for most locations this afternoon. This will be in response to light southerly return flow ushering in modestly warmer air this afternoon as the area of surface high pressure across the area this morning shifts east. Across the upper levels, high pressure to our west will shift east across the area by Tuesday, allowing temperatures to moderate further and return to above normal levels for the remainder of the week. This will also shift the focus of the jet stream well to our north and east, keeping conditions dry through the end of the week. Thereafter...models still have some significant differences with the handling of the next more significant west coast trough/low that will move into the plains over the weekend, with quite a spread in ensemble member QPF depictions across the local area. While the majority of the ensemble members continue to indicate this Pacific storm system will be warm enough to support rain, a handful of mainly EC ensemble members are hinting at a chance for snow. At the moment, given the uncertainties, the model blend used in the official forecast is advertising fairly mild temperatures with a 15-35% chance of rain over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some passing high level clouds and good VSBYS. For this morning...expect light westerly winds to persist through the mid-morning hours...with winds increasing to near 12 KTS out of the south by 10/17Z. Winds will then remain steady through the afternoon hours, increasing some this evening as a modest LLJ develops across the region. Given the increase in surface winds and the focus of the LLJ to the east of the terminals, did not include the mention for LLWS tonight. CIGS will not be an issue through the period...with only variable amounts of high level cloud cover anticipated. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SR AVIATION...SR
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