Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

745
FXUS63 KOAX 020545
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog developing overnight, some of which could be
  dense, limiting visibilities to less than half a mile.

- Periodic, low precipitation chances (15-30%) Monday night
  through Tuesday night. A wintry mix could fall at times, but
  is currently favored to remain light with little to no impact.

- Mild temperatures stick around this week, with highs in the
  30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s from Thursday
  through Saturday. These warmer temperatures could allow river
  ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tonight and Monday:

Overnight snowfall is quickly disappearing this afternoon as
temperatures have warmed into the 40s as of 2 PM. A shield of
low clouds is gradually overspreading northeast NE and western
IA with latest model data suggesting the clouds will remain in
the same general vicinity overnight. To the south of the clouds
and in locations of recent snow melt, decreasing winds will
allow for fog formation late tonight into Monday morning with
visibilities falling below a half mile at some locations.

The morning fog and lingering clouds will slow heating Monday
with highs topping out in the 30s to low 40s.


Monday night through Wednesday:

The 12z global models remain in good agreement in the
progression of a shortwave trough through the mid-MO Valley
Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by additional
vorticity maxima from Tuesday into Wednesday. Associated QPF
fields remain light and spotty in our area, which is consistent
with the low PoPs of 15-30% indicated in the forecast. Forecast
soundings show periods of deepening saturation in the lowest
5-10 kft, but below the level of ice introduction. As such, the
potential will exist for a wintry mix to fall during periods
when boundary-layer temperatures remain below freezing. However,
any precipitation is expected to remain light and not cause an
impact to travel.

Daytime highs could be limited by cloud cover in some areas with
readings in the 30s Tuesday, and 30s to low 40s and Wednesday.


Thursday through Saturday:

An amplified mid-level ridge positioned over the western U.S.
Thursday morning is forecast to weaken while shifting into the
central U.S. this weekend. In the low levels, westerly,
downslope winds Thursday will contribute to considerably warmer
temperatures with highs in the 50s forecast at many locations.
The models indicate a front moving through the area Friday with
highs mainly in the 40s. Similar conditions are expected
Saturday.

The warmer daytime temperatures will begin to affect ice
cover/depth on area rivers. However, with overnight lows
remaining below freezing and no rain in the forecast, the ice
break up could be a gradual process.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Main concern for the fist half of the TAF period continues to be
the possibility for fog, which the latest guidance suggests is
becoming less likely. Temperatures will still tank along a line
from KOFK to KLNK, where our chances for dense fog are highest
(20-30% chance), with areas of patchy fog in between. To the
northeast near KOMA, the deck of MVFR ceilings will continue to
move eastward slowly, and should leave KOMA VFR near 08z or
shortly after. Winds will be very light overnight, and waffle in
direction some, generally out of the west. After 12z tomorrow
morning, winds will shift east-southeasterly while staying
light, with additional bouts of MVFR ceilings affecting KOMA
and KOFK until 18-21z while KLNK stays VFR. Towards the end of
the TAF period, another chance at some light snow/drizzle, but
we`re waiting for a steady signal before including it in the
TAFs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

612
FXUS63 KGID 020555
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1155 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible overnight into Monday morning almost
  anywhere in our area, and localized dense fog (visibility 1/4
  mile or less) can`t be ruled out. However, confidence in the
  likelihood/coverage of fog remains low, as recent higher-res
  model runs this evening have "backed off" somewhat on the
  possibility of more widespread fog potential.

- A light wintry mix is possible Tuesday evening and Tuesday
  night, although significant impacts are not expected.

- Warm and dry for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- OVERNIGHT-MONDAY AM FOG POTENTIAL? (still plenty uncertain):
Except in the occasional more "textbook" setups that favor
widespread fog (of which Monday AM is not), our fog forecasts
usually lean toward the uncertain/"fickle" side of things with
various pros/cons in play (Monday AM does fit this bill).

As noted by preceding day shift forecaster (and as has
continued this evening), higher-res model fog/visibility
forecasts (such as from HRRR) continue to fluctuate regarding
the likelihood/coverage of fog, with the most recent few runs
keeping coverage quite limited (not widespread). On the flip
side, coarser ensemble visibility guidance such as from SREF is
rather aggressive with more widespread fog potential (although
forecaster experience notes this is often proven "overdone" in
the wake of very recent melting of shallow snow..such as what
we just had today).

"Pros" favoring potentially more widespread fog formation
include:
- Light winds mainly near-to-below 6 MPH
- Enhanced very-low-level moisture/relative humidity from snow
  melt this afternoon (most prevalent over our eastern counties
  and KS zones).

"Cons" against fog formation (at least widespread coverage)
include:
- Although winds will be light, they won`t be truly CALM in most
  places either, and boundary layer winds (just above the
  surface) actually increase out of the south with time Mon AM.
- Increasing (albeit initially thin) high cirrus clouds could
  arrive "just in time" to keep temps from falling quite as far
  as currently forecast (and thus keeping RH slightly higher).

All things considered:
Our latest thinking is that Monday AM fog will "probably" tend
to be more patchy in coverage (not widespread/blanketing
multiple counties), but where it does develop it could be
localized dense (visibility 1/4 mile). Confidence in fog
formation/density is FAR too low to even consider a proactive
Advisory at this time, but in collaboration with neighboring
offices have at least blanketed our entire area with generic
"patchy fog" in our official forecast (especially between 3-9
AM), and have also maintained the mention of localized dense fog
in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Despite yesterday`s snowfall, temperatures have overachieved
today, with nearly the entire area reaching the 50s. Low level
moisture from the snowmelt today, combined with light winds will
potentially allow for fog late tonight into Monday morning. 12Z
CAMs were quite aggressive with the fog potential, although
more recent HRRR runs have backed of on the coverage...partially
due to increasing high clouds.

The increased cloudcover on Monday will keep temperatures
around 10 degrees cooler than today...but still slightly above
normal for early February.

The best chance for precipitation over the next week arrives
with a shortwave on Tuesday. Precipitation type will be mixed.
Primary types will be rain and snow, possibly mixed with
freezing drizzle in localized areas with subfreezing
temperatures. Localized travel impacts cannot be ruled out, but
the overall threat remains low. A very light wintry mix is
possible Tuesday morning, but the primary timeframe will be
Tuesday evening through Tuesday night.

Seasonal temperatures continue on Wednesday behind this system,
but another significant warmup is still on-track for the end of
the week and into the weekend. Although we will likely come up
short of record highs, widespread temperatures in the 50s are
expected each day Thursday through next Sunday. There is also
pretty high confidence in dry conditions through this period as
well.

Medium range ensemble are hinting at a more active period for
the following week (February 10-14), as we move to more zonal or
southwesterly flow aloft. That said, details remain very
uncertain and temperatures are favored to remain fairly mild.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes as we get into the pre-
dawn hours and the potential for fog. Past couple of runs of
some models/guidance have backed off a bit on the potential,
having it focused over a smaller portion of the area. Removed
the mention of sub-VFR conditions from KEAR based on this data,
but kept the mention going for KGRI. Outside of that threat, the
remainder of this period is expected to be VFR. Winds remain on
the light/variable side to start the period, turning more
southerly with time. Generally southerly winds expected to
continue through around midday-early afternoon, then a sfc
frontal boundary swings through, switching winds to the NNW for
the rest of the afternoon hours. Speeds look to top out around
10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion