Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

858
FXUS63 KOAX 231026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with highs reaching the
  upper 80s to low 90s by Monday.

- Widely scattered showers and storms are possible through the
  holiday weekend, with a strong storm or two possible Sunday.
  Dry periods will outnumber wet ones.

- Periodic precipitation chances continue Tuesday through the
  remainder of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Saturday through Monday...

A mid-level low pivoting across the northern Plains this evening
pushed a cold front eastward through the area. A broken line of
thunderstorms developed along the front, with a few stronger
embedded cores. Storms will continue moving east and should exit the
area shortly after midnight.

Surface high pressure briefly slides across the region Saturday as
mid-level ridging builds into the central and southern Plains,
bringing a warming trend through the holiday weekend. Highs are
expected to reach the mid 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, and
upper 80s to low 90s Monday. Mostly dry conditions will prevail,
though low-end, near-daily shower and storm chances remain possible
as weak waves pass through the region.

The first chance arrives Saturday evening, mainly across northeast
Nebraska where a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Weak
shear and modest instability should limit storm organization.
Chances increase slightly Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak
surface trough moves near the NE/SD border. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
and bulk shear near 30 kts may support a strong storm or two, with
the best chances across northeast NE into southwest IA. Damaging
wind gusts (up to 65 mph) and hail (up to 1 inch) are the primary
hazards. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this
area. Additional widely scattered showers or storms will be possible
Monday as temperatures warm (likely to convective temperatures) and
instability increases, though weak shear and limited forcing should
keep the chance limited. Overall, dry periods will greatly outweigh
wet ones through the holiday weekend, but those with outdoor plans
should stay weather aware.

Tuesday and Beyond...

A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move onshore across the
western CONUS early next week and slowly deepen as it shifts
eastward. Moisture return will increase ahead of this system, with
highs generally in the low 80s through much of the work week.

Periodic precipitation chances return late Tuesday and continue
through the remainder of the workweek as several weak disturbances
move through the region. PoPs generally range from 20-50%, though
timing and locations will likely be refined as guidance better
resolves each wave. No particular day stands out for severe weather
at this time, as instability appears modest and stronger
shear/forcing look displaces from the area. GEFS and EPS machine-
learning guidance also keep the better severe probabilities focused
to our south and west. A shift in disturbance tracks could change
this, but for now, the severe weather signal remains limited.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the
TAF cycle. High based clouds at 25,000 ft will linger through
much of the morning/early afternoon. Ceilings lower in the late
afternoon and evening hours to 9,000-14,000 feet as a
disturbance approaches from the west. A few scattered showers
and thunderstorms may develop near KOFK after 00z, but chances
remain well below 50% confidence for inclusion in TAF at this
time. West northwest winds will turn south southeasterly after
00z and remain under 12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

627
FXUS63 KGID 231117
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Can`t rule out a few showers moving into western areas this
  morning...but most locations will see dry conditions during
  the day today. Late in the day-evening, there will be the
  potential for scattered storms to develop/impact mainly NWrn
  portions of the area.

- Sunday and Memorial Day are expected to be dry during the day
  for most of the area...but both days will have the chance for
  late day-evening thunderstorms developing/moving in from the
  NW. Storms on Sunday will have the potential for some storms
  to be strong-severe...and much of the area is included in the
  SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area.

- Tuesday through Friday continues to have numerous chances for
  precipitation, as a large area of low pressure/trough moves
  into the western CONUS. Lot of uncertainty in the details this
  far out, so chances are pretty broad in nature.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Currently...

Seeing overall quiet conditions early this morning across the
forecast area...radar showing a line of scattered showers/storms
extending from north central IA southward into eastern KS, with
some scattered showers over western KS. Looking aloft, upper
air and satellite data show an area of low pressure over eastern
ND, with a southward extending trough axis helping drive those
showers/storms off to our east...while another more subtle
shortwave disturbance can be seen sliding east across UT/CO. At
the surface, winds across the area are on the light/variable
side to light/westerly, thanks to high pressure building into
the area behind the main frontal boundary off to our east. With
the lighter winds and recent rainfall...is some concern about
fog developing as we get closer to dawn, but increasing cloud
cover and the fact winds are westerly looks to help keep that
concern low...hi-res models aren`t showing much at this point.

Today and tonight...

Models continue to show the start of the weekend being dry for
much of the area...though that upper level shortwave
disturbance will be working its way east through the area during
the daytime-evening hours. Not out of the question that some
sprinkles/showers working their way into western areas this
morning...but models have that activity waning by mid-late
morning. Later this afternoon-early evening, models then show
the potential for some thunderstorms developing as that upper
level disturbances moves through, near sfc boundaries that may
be set up over western and north central portions of NE. Models
continue to show coverage being fairly scattered...with the best
chances being across our NWrn half, waning with time further
ESE. With dewpoints topping out only in the 40s, models not
showing notable instability present...thinking the threat for
severe weather is low. Once that activity wanes, the remainder
of the overnight hours look to be dry.

Winds will be switching to the south from west to east with time
today, as sfc high pressure slides east of the forecast
area...speeds will be on the light side, topping out around
10-15 MPH. Models show sky cover being variable through the day,
periods of partly-mostly cloudy, periods of more sun peeking
through. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-70.

Sunday and Memorial Day...

Still some details to iron out for the rest of the holiday
weekend...but much of the daytime hours both days has the
potential to be dry. Models show generally zonal upper level
flow across the area on Sunday, turning a bit more southwesterly
on Monday as a couple of upper level low pressure systems work
onto the West Coast. There will be the potential both days for
subtle shortwave disturbances to push through the region,
sparking off at least scattered thunderstorms along a sfc
frontal boundary that at this point models initially have off to
the NW of the forecast area. Not a ton of confidence in the
finer details of just how far outside the area those boundaries
area/storms develop...but models have that activity making its
way in during the late day-evening hours. Because of the
lingering uncertainties, forecast precip chances remain on the
lower side (20-30 percent range)...will see how models trend
over the upcoming runs. With better moisture/50s dewpoints
working in on Sunday with increased southerly low level flow,
models showing better instability available, with deeper layer
shear around 30-35kts...so there is concern that some of the
storms that develop could be strong to severe, and much of the
forecast area is included the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area. More
uncertainty exists for severe potential on Monday...models
suggesting a decrease in both shear and instability.

Outside of precipitation chances, both Sun-Mon are expected to
have breezy southerly winds, with speeds around 15-20 MPH
possible. Also expecting a bump in temperatures, with mid-80s on
Sunday and upper 80s for Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast during the mid-late
week timeframe...with models showing a fairly large area of
low pressure/troughing setting up over the western CONUS. There
are differences with exactly where the low sets up...and the
impact on flow across the Central Plains. Precipitation chances
remain in the forecast pretty much non-stop from Tuesday evening
through Friday...and because of the uncertainties, are
broad/CWA-wide. At this point not looking at any notable swings
in temperatures either way...with forecast highs mainly in the
upper 70s-low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This afternoon and Tonight

A cold front currently located near Highway 81 continues to make its
way across the forecast area this afternoon. A few lingering showers
continue near-just behind the front. The axis of greatest
instability shifting east of the area with the cold front makes it
doubtful that these showers/storms will do much before exiting the
area over the next couple of hours. Clearing skies this evening and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s overnight.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday climb into the 70s as a passing shortwave trough
moves into the Plains. Partly cloudy skies and light winds make for
an overall pleasant day on Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave
trough will aid the development of a few scattered thunderstorms
over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon-evening. While inhibition
increases around sunset and results in these storms weakening, it
remains plausible that a couple of these storms linger just long
enough to make it into far northwestern portions of the area before
dissipating Saturday night.


Sunday and Memorial Day...

Southwesterly flow aloft transitions to a more west-northwesterly
flow pattern on Sunday. At the surface, highs climb into the 80s
aided by breezy southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Scattered
shower/thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon-evening
along the surface trough/dryline in west-central Nebraska. CAPE and
shear would be sufficient for storms to become strong to marginally
severe.  These storms look to mainly impact northwestern portions of
the area. Any storm would gradually dissipate after sunset as
convective inhibition increases.

Warmth continues on Memorial Day as temperatures climb into the 80s
during the afternoon. Another breezy day is expected with southerly
winds gusting 20-30mph. Similar to this weekend, a few scattered
thunderstorms may develop across portions of Nebraska. Details on
timing of any storm will become clearer as we get closer (likely
afternoon/evening).

Tuesday Onwards...

Troughing moves into the western U.S. on Tuesday and subsequently
stalls out, placing the area under southwesterly flow-weak ridging.
Near to above normal temperatures are expected, with highs generally
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This pattern also results in scattered,
off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Kept the
daytime hours dry...radar showing some isolated light
showers/sprinkles over western KS, sliding east...not enough
confidence in any impact at either terminal to insert a precip
mention. This evening, there is a better chance for some
isolated-scattered showers/storms to slide in from the NW...with
better potential of impact at the terminals...thus kept the
PROB30 group going. Light/variable winds early this morning are
expected to turn southerly this morning...remaining that way
through the end of the period, though there is some uncertainty
tonight, winds could end up more variable in direction. Models
show the potential for marginal LLWS tonight, have that mention
starting at midnight and running through the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion