Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

446
FXUS63 KOAX 100343
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1043 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering storms continue overnight with little-to-no
  risk for severe weather.

- Dry conditions expected for most locations Friday with highs
  in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Storm chances return over the weekend into next week. Severe
  weather may return Monday areawide and again for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

We may continue to see a few lingering storms along the
secondary front associated with the upper-level trough overnight
across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. These storms are
elevated in nature and won`t be tapping into the enhanced low-
level shear which should keep severe potential very low with
these storms overnight. CAMs clear them mostly out of our area
by 1AM, with a few lingering showers possible across far
southeast Nebraska into early Friday morning.

With storms clearing out of the area, we look ahead to Friday
with higher pressure sliding across the region. This will lead
to clearer skies, but the stationary front to our south will be
blocking any tap into the warmer air to our south. This will
keep temperatures cooler under the High with daytime high
temperatures only peaking in the upper 50s.

As this High starts to clear to the east Friday night into
Saturday, we see the cooler air mass get picked up and pushed
east on the northern fringe of the Subtropical Ridge over the
Southeast, leading to enhanced southerly flow across the Great
Plains. This will bring temperatures up as well as bring back in
moisture from the Gulf. With the return of warm, moist, unstable
air to the region, as well as volatile southwesterly flow
ejecting shortwaves through ahead of an approaching trough,
we`ll see shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast on
Saturday. These chances hold through most of the day with a
marginal risk for severe storms (level 1 of 5), main threats
being large hail and strong winds.

Rain chances lessen, but don`t completely clear on Sunday
depending on how quickly the upper-level trough can push the
cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. While the
primary deterministic models clear us out by Sunday afternoon,
some of the ensembles hold onto some lingering showers through
Sunday evening. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday we do continue
to see strong southerly flow bringing temperatures Sunday
afternoon up into the mid 70s to low 80s.

Next Week...

We`re watching potential for a couple rounds of severe storms
Monday and Tuesday next week as we continue to tap into the
warm, moist, unstable air mass from the Gulf as a couple more
shortwaves eject out of the deep upper-level trough over the
West Coast. While details remain hazy this far out, there does
appear to be a broad area of shear and instability forecast to
set up ahead of these system Monday into Tuesday, leading to
potential for all hazards including tornadoes, hail, and
damaging winds across a good portion of the Great Plains from
central Texas north into eastern Nebraska northeast toward the
Great Lakes. The severe threat shifts off to the east on
Wednesday as the deep upper-level trough over the West Coast
finally kicks free and moves through our area. While we will
continue to see chances for rain on Wednesday, the low-level jet
which has been advecting in the unstable environment shifts off
to the east leading to lower chances for anything severe.

The upper-level pattern continues to remain unsettled going into
the latter half of next week. Though temperatures trend back
closer to normal, we`ll continue to see additional low chances
for showers and storms through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Showers and storms are staying well south of KOFK this evening,
leaving this site VFR overnight into Friday. Storms will be
moving out of KOMA mostly by 01Z with a few scattered showers
lingering for a couple more hours. A band of MVFR cigs will
slide south into KOMA around 01Z and make it down to KLNK around
01-02Z this evening, expected to linger for a few hours before
clearing around 04Z. Meanwhile winds remain mainly out of the
north around 10KT. Once low clouds clear, expect VFR conditions
to prevail through the rest of the TAF period with winds
shifting to the northeast later in the morning on Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

978
FXUS63 KGID 100255
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
955 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...Short Term and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least spotty, and mainly non-severe storms will be possible
  overnight tonight (Thurs night) and more so Friday night
  within various parts of our forecast area.

- At least for now, Saturday and Tuesday appear to hold at least
  "some" risk for our next severe storm chances, but we probably
  cannot totally turn our backs on Sunday-Monday either. Plenty
  of details still to sort out.

- The total coverage of the storms Friday and Saturday may be more
  limited than widespread.

- Temperatures will warm back up to the 70s and 80s starting
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

-- Brief comments on recent/very-short-term convective trends:
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 has been officially cancelled
  early for all 5 counties in our far southeastern forecast area
  that were initially included.

- Indeed, we did see a few severe storms fire up mainly between
  530-730pm, with hail to at least 1" diameter reported in
  Thayer, Jewell, Osborne, and Mitchell counties.

- Looking ahead to the REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS: spotty, and
  mainly weak thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out
  primarily within counties along/south of the NE/KS border
  (including ongoing activity in far southern Thayer County),
  but confidence is fairly high that any additional activity
  should be sub-severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026


Today/Tonight...

The cold front, which passed through the area last night, has since
stalled into a stationary boundary near the NE/KS state border this
afternoon. As a result, a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms have
managed to pop up across a select portion of the area. The coverage
of thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly minor (less than 25%
of the area) with concentrations mainly east of HWY-281 through the
rest of the afternoon/night.

A few of the scattered storms later this evening may become strong
to severe (mainly between the 5-11PM timeframe). The best potential
for storms to become severe will be for ones that develop south of I-
80 (areas closer to and south of the stationary boundary) where the
better moisture and instability will lie (upper 40s to mid 50s
dewpoints with 1,000-2,000J of MUCAPE). A Slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather encompasses portions of Webster, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties in Nebraska as well as Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne
and Mitchell counties in Kansas with a Marginal risk (level 1 of
5) covering a good portion of locations south of the interstate.
Hail up to the size of half dollars with thunderstorm wind gusts
near 60MPH will be possible within the strongest storms.

Overall, the coverage of any severe activity should remain somewhat
limited in coverage across only a few southeastern portions of the
area. Through decent 30-40kts of bulk shear will be in place with
some modest low-level helicity south of the boundary, the low
dewpoints no greater than the mid 50s with high LCLs (>1,500m)
should limit the tornadic potential this evening (to mainly a hail
and wind threat). Flooding is also not expected to be a concern as
storm motions should keep most of the convection rolling on through
(around 25-40MPH), limiting residence times of any heavy downpours.

Beyond the storm potential today/tonight, winds starting out of an
easterly direction north of the stationary front and southerly
direction south of the front, will become east to northeasterly
overnight across the area. Lows tonight will also likely fall to
their coldest point until Tuesday night as lows reach down to the
30s to mid 40s.


Friday & Saturday...

Temperatures for Friday will generally remain on the cooler side
(mid 50s to low 60s) as excessive cloud coverage looms overhead with
steady northeast cold air advection to start the day. The 10-15MPH
steady northeast winds gusting as high as 20-25MPH will gradually
turn east to southeasterly through the day. Though an isolated and
non-severe thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Friday afternoon to
evening, the slightly better potential will not occur until the
overnight hours when the low-level jet kicks in. Even then, the
latest CAM`s have significantly decreased the coverage of storms
across the overnight period, likely as result from weak synoptic
support underneath a zonal to weak ridging pattern in the upper-
levels. Precipitation chances look more to be a hit or miss with
likely only a few areas that may catch meaningful precipitation
amounts greater than 0.2".

Slightly stronger southerly winds for Saturday may blow between 20
to 25 MPH with gusts as high as 30-35MPH possible. The stronger
winds will come as a surface low ejecting out of the Northern
Rockies quickly races towards the Northern Plains. This wind will
help bring in warmer air with highs raising around 15-20 degrees
into the 70s compared to Friday. A similar story precipitation-wise
may play out Saturday as any storms that do form throughout the day
will be expected to be highly scattered in coverage. A marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) covers the central and southeastern 2/3rd of the
area. The strongest storms could produce quarter sized hail with
wind gusts near 60MPH.


Sunday and Beyond...

The continuation of southerly to southwesterly winds through Monday
will help highs maintain in the upper 70s to mid 80s range for both
Sunday and Monday. The next major pattern change up will come Tuesday
as an upper-level trough approaches the Central U.S. A surface
cyclone is favored to form across the Central Plains, potentially
bringing another round of severe weather to at least a portion of
the area. The southeast corner of the area is clipped by the
Storm Prediction Center`s extended Day 6 (Tuesday) 15% Severe
Weather Outlook. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to wobble
between the 70s and low 80s through next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Overall-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the
period, although a lower-VFR ceiling (down to around 5K ft.) is
expected to prevail for a good chunk of it. Also high confidence
that at least the vast majority of the period remains
precipitation-free (and TAFs reflect this). That being said,
there appears to be a small chance (10-20%) for a few spotty
showers and/or a weak thunderstorm anytime mainly 10-16Z, so
this bears watching.

As for winds, they will be steady (but not overly-strong). The
overall-strongest speeds will occur right away this
evening...generally sustained around 15KT/gusts 20-25KT out of
the northeast. Speeds will back off slightly late tonight into
Friday daytime, but will remain a touch elevated with sustained
speeds commonly 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT as direction gradually
shifts from northeasterly...to easterly...and eventually to
east-southeasterly later in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion