Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

564
FXUS63 KOAX 040421
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday
  through Wednesday, with the highest chances (50-70%), across
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday evening
  across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with hail and
  wind the primary hazards.

- Frost will be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
  especially across northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening places a
broad mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern majority of the
CONUS, with a split flow pattern developing to its west. At the
surface, a weak cold front passed through the area today, though the
passage had little effect on temperatures as afternoon highs rose
into the 70s. Overnight, a weak shortwave disturbance pivoting
across the northern Plains will drag rain showers towards the area.
The bulk of this activity is expected to decay before reaching the
area, though a few sprinkles and gusty winds may approach northeast
Nebraska with the collapsing showers. PoPs currently peak at 15%.
Overnight lows are expected to dip into the 40s.

Monday, the aforementioned upper-level trough will begin to sag
southward into the central and northern Plains, helping to push a
more potent cold front southward through the area. Afternoon high
temperatures will be dependent on if the front passes through before
peak daytime heating. Values in the low 70s are expected across
northeast Nebraska, while areas along and south of Interstate-80 are
expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Winds will shift to northerly
with gusts of 20-30 mph behind the front.

During the late afternoon and evening, thunderstorm development is
expected along the front as forcing for ascent increases. Bulk shear
is expected to reach 35-40 kts with MUCAPE topping out around 750-
1000 J/kg, bringing the potential for a few strong to severe storms.
The primary hazards will be hail (up to 1.25") and damaging wind
gusts (up to 65 mph). The main question will be where the front is
located by the time convection initiation occurs. Latest CAM
guidance keeps storms confined to far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, potentially even south of the NE/KS state line.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage
behind the front Monday night into early Tuesday, with PoPs
currently peaking at 50-70%. Rainfall totals are expected to
peak around 0.20" in southeast Nebraska, decreasing northward.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The remainder of the period will generally by encompassed by zonal
to northwesterly flow aloft as a broad trough persists over the
eastern CONUS. The post-frontal airmass and continued CAA will be
felt on Tuesday and Wednesday, as afternoon highs are expected to
peak in the upper 50s and low 60s. On and off light rain chances
persist through Wednesday as a diffuse front stalls across the area,
primarily for southeast Nebraska where PoPs linger at 30%.

Frost potential will return to the area Wednesday and Thursday
morning, primarily in northeast Nebraska as overnight lows dip into
the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will gradually warm Thursday into
the weekend. High temperatures on Thursday are expected in the upper
60s to low 70s, increasing to the widespread 70s on Friday and
Saturday. A few on and off light rain chances (PoPs 15-30%) persist
as weak shortwave disturbances slide across the area, though dry
periods will largely outnumber wet ones. Severe weather potential
remains low through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm southerly winds will persist overnight before a
cold front pushes southward across the area late Monday morning
into the afternoon. Winds will quickly shift to northerly and
increase in speed behind the front, with sustained speeds of
12-17 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts. Cloud cover will also increase
behind the front, with a few scattered rain showers possible
(30% chance) after 4/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

298
FXUS63 KGID 040525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not totally out of the question an isolated shower-
  thunderstorm could work its way in to far NNW portions of the
  area this evening. Rest of the area remains dry.

- Another upper level disturbance and southward pushing surface
  cold front make their way into the area for Monday...bringing
  additional precipitation chances to the area. For areas
  near/south of the NE-KS state line, not out of the question
  some afternoon-evening storms could be strong, but the better
  potential for severe storms currently looks to be focused to
  our SE.

- Tuesday/Wednesday bring additional rain chances and cooler
  temps with highs in the 50s. The end of the work week into
  next weekend warm back up into the 70s...with periodic precip
  chances continuing, especially next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Can`t complain too much about conditions to end the
weekend...with overall light winds and partly cloudy skies.
Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing
northwesterly flow in place across the Central and Nrn
Plains...driven primarily by broad troughing over the eastern
CONUS. A weak ridge axis extends north from the Desert SW into
the Rockies, while a larger area of low pressure is inching
closer to the central CA coast. A weaker shortwave disturbance
sliding SE off to our NNE late last night into this morning
pushed a surface frontal boundary south into the forecast
area...reaching far southern fringes by around midday. This
front ushered in generally northeasterly winds...but with it not
being a strong front, has not brought a notable increase in
speeds or a change in temperatures. Highs will top out in the
70s-low 80s.

To varying degrees, some models still showing the potential for
isolated showers/storms developing over the NE/SD High Plains
later this afternoon...then sliding southeast with time through
the evening hours. Still lingering uncertainty whether any of
that activity maintains itself long enough to get into our
forecast area...but with some models showing that being
possible, have a small chance of precip in far NNW portions of
the area for a few hours mid-late evening. Otherwise the rest of
the overnight hours are expected to be dry. Winds overnight
expected to be on the light/variable side, turning more WSW
closer to dawn...as the area sits between the departing front
from today and the next which will be making its way through the
Dakotas overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...

The forecast for the first half of the new work week remains on
the more active/wet side. On Monday, the forecast for much of
the daytime hours remains dry...it`s not until late in the day
and into the evening-overnight hours that higher precip chances
spread across the area. Models remain in good agreement showing
upper level shortwave energy swinging through central
Canada...aiding in the eventual deepening of a more organized
upper low over Ontario by late evening-overnight Monday. This
system will push another surface cold front south through the
region...with the potential for showers and storms to develop
along it mid-late afternoon...so its progress/location is an
important detail. Still some lingering slight differences
between models with where the boundary is when activity
develops...ranging from closer to the NE/KS state line to a
touch further south and closer to I-70. Ahead of the front...not
much change with forecast highs, reaching well into the 70s and
lower 80s. Because of the short period between frontal
passages...the surface pattern never gets much of a chance to
bring more solidly southerly flow to the area and increased
moisture return. Forecast dewpoints through the afternoon remain
in the 30s- 40s...so models are keeping instability mainly less
than 1000 j/kg, with better values more focused over eastern KS
where dewpoints closer to/over 50 are expected. Can`t rule out
some storms being on the stronger side...but the better threat
for severe storms remains focused just off to our E-SE, where
the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remains.

For the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame...no notable changes with
models, and the forecast continues to have widespread
precipitation chances. The forecast remains situated on the
southern edge of larger, broader troughing driven by that
Canadian low creeping further east. The daytime hours on Tuesday
may end up being somewhat of a lull in activity...especially
the further north and east you go. Tuesday evening on into
Wednesday, models show another push of upper level shortwave
energy through the Plains...with recent runs generally focusing
the better chances for precip across roughly the SSW half of the
forecast area. Sitting north of the main sfc frontal
boundaries...models not showing much potential for
instability/thunder, so just plain rain showers is the primary
precip type. Expecting generally northerly winds during this
period, with plenty of cloud cover...and notably cooler temps,
with highs both Tue-Wed forecast to top out in the 50s.

Thursday on into next weekend...

Models are in decent agreement with the broad picture...showing
the upper level pattern continuing to be mainly northwesterly,
at times more zonal, through next weekend. This pattern looks
to bring periodic shortwave disturbances through the
Plains...especially as we get into the weekend period. Lot of
details to iron out over this week, don`t get too hung up on
specifics that far out. Following those Tue-Wed highs in the
50s, temps are expected to climb back into the 70s for Thu-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through TAF period. Light and variable
winds overnight become westerly after sunrise, shifting to the
north behind a cold frontal passage during the late morning-
early afternoon hours. Northerly gusts around 20kts during the
afternoon increase to 25kts during the late afternoon-evening
but gradually decrease after sunset. SKC-FEW are expected
through the morning hours. BKN-OVC mid level clouds move into
the area behind the cold frontal passage. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible after 00z, though the timing and
duration of any storm is uncertain. Have indicated this
potential with a PROB30 group. +

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion