Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

133
FXUS63 KOAX 121052
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
552 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is likely tonight into early Sunday morning,
  especially for areas near the Platte River Valley.

- Stretch of hot and dry weather will last through at least the
  upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Patchy fog may develop again few mornings this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature a dominant,
broad mid/upper trough parked squarely across the CONUS while
convective activity across southeastward from northeast
Oklahoma through the Tennessee River valley. Zooming in locally,
we find ourselves on the southwestern periphery of a ridge of
high surface pressure that has already worked to quiet winds and
increase cooling this evening across the area.
Evapotranspiration (specifically from growing corn) has been
hard at work to increase surface dewpoints through the day into
the lower 70s across much of the area, setting us up for another
night that could end with a foggy sunrise. Overnight lows are
set for the mid-to-upper 60s, which are 5 degrees below current
dewpoints. Areas that can push that far past their late
afternoon/early evening dewpoints represent our best chances for
fog overnight, especially if those locations also see light
winds.

Sunday and Beyond:

Once morning hits and the fog has dissipated, temperatures will
quickly start their climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s as
the ridge only builds in strength going forward through the
rest of the week. Another feature that illustrates the
increasing temperatures is the low-level thermal ridge that
currently resides up and down the High Plains before arcing into
the Northern Plains, that will also slowly creep eastward to
also force temperature upwards. With a lot of the steering
mechanisms for modern forecasting relying on bias correction
from data over the past few weeks, increasing
evapotranspiration is not captured in that correction. With
that said, we had very minor moisture advection over the course
of the day, with very little of that coming from the traditional
source regions such as the gulf. Even still, dewpoints either
overperformed or reached the highest values of all guidance
today, increasing 5+ degrees from morning values at most
locations. This is all to say that if our current handle on high
temperatures for the week is solid, over-performing dewpoints
could further increase heat indices above what the current
forecast holds.

Looking at rain chances over the upcoming week, we`ll have to rely
on remnants from the High Plains, whether it be an MCV that is
steered southeastward from Montana or Wyoming or an MCS that powers
in from the northwest. The bulk of the more predictable activity
will continue to stay south of the area -- decreasing the likelihood
of daytime clouds and increasing confidence in the heat that we are
forecast to see. Heat is normal this time of year, and the folks of
Nebraska and Iowa know that the humidity can make things dangerous,
with heat indices this week reaching over 100 Thursday through
Saturday. Areas most impacted by heat will be the Omaha/CB Metro,
Lincoln, and far northeast Nebraska, where the highest temperatures
will be, and the warmest low temperatures will be, limiting recovery
from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Very patchy fog has developed across portions of the area this
morning. OFK is currently at MVFR visibility due to this. Any
fog should dissipate over the next couple hours. VFR conditions
are expected this afternoon with light southeast winds. An
afternoon cumulus deck around FL060 can be expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

506
FXUS63 KGID 121130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is about a 30% chance of fog development overnight.
  Widespread, dense fog is not expected.

- No rain or storms are expected today through the end of the
  week.

- Heat index values are expected to reach the low triple digits
  for some areas late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

There is about a 30% chance of fog development overnight into the
morning hours. If fog does develop, it isn`t expected to be as
widespread or dense as it was yesterday morning. The expected
conditions supporting fog development are clear skies and light
winds; although, winds will not likely be quite as calm/light as
they were yesterday morning. Also, model soundings are not as
favorable for fog development as they were yesterday morning.

Low temperatures overnight into the morning hours will be in the 60s
with light south to east winds. High temperatures today will be in
the mid/upper 80s to low 90s with mostly sunny skies. Winds will
mostly be out of the southeast at around 5 to 15 MPH. Temperatures
are expected to gradually warm up through the week with highs mainly
in the mid to upper 90s late in the week. Heat index values late in
the week are expected to reach the low triple digits for some areas.
No precipitation is expected through the whole forecast time (today
through the end of the week).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This is about as quiet of a weather pattern as you will see with
a significant 500 mb upper level ridge of 590-600dm, which is
anomalously high even for July. The upper level ridge will
establish itself over the northern plains on Sunday and then
gradually recenter further south over Nebraska for most of next
week. This pattern will make it difficult to even see much in
the way of cloud cover through the week ahead so expect sunny,
hot, and dry weather to prevail all week.

Forecast models are indicating lower dewpoints than we would
typically expect this time of year (afternoon dewpoints around
60 later this week). Model dewpoints today have been a bit too
low and am wondering if that model bias will remain the case
this week given the significant widespread crop
evapotranspiration. If our dewpoints end up being a little bit
higher, that will also push our heat index values higher as
well. Consequently, would not be surprised if our currently
forecast heat index values (lower to mid 90s most of the week)
end up being a bit more uncomfortable than currently advertised.
At this point given no expected precipitation, the main forecast
concern will be monitoring the rising temperatures through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is some uncertainty if the fog will impact KGRI and KEAR.
KGRI is the most likely terminal to be impacted. Any fog is
expected to be brief. Winds will become southeast by 18z and
will increase some this afternoon (up to around 10 knots). Winds
will weaken by 03z and become more southerly by 12z Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion