57°F
Updated:
12/31/2025
2:12:13pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
873 FXUS63 KOAX 311719 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue today with breezy winds, followed by a brief cool down in the 30s for Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures quickly rebound this weekend with continued dry weather through the first half of the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Today: Water vapor imagery this morning features northwesterly flow over the central CONUS, sandwiched between ridging over the western third and broad troughing over the eastern third. Weak mid/upper waves continue to waft through the flow with their precipitation missing the area to the north and east as a northerly jet streak steers things away. Another warm day (upper 40s and 50s) is forecast with winds starting out west-southwesterly before shifting northwesterly as a dry cold front passes through the area. This change in airmass will come as a clipper system/associated jet max move through the northwesterly flow to the northeast of the area. Gradually clearing skies today will be replaced by a deck of low clouds overnight that a few ensemble members squeeze a sprinkle/flurry out of, but will generally be to no effect on any surfaces in the area as we fall into the teens and twenties overnight. Thursday and Beyond: The remainder of the forecast period picks up the dry start to the forecast and has temperatures that have taken as step down from the warm mid-week. Highs Thursday and Friday will largely top out in the 30s, with temps increasing as you go south and west. The split jet pattern in the upper levels will continue to ward off deeply cold air to the north while a subtropical jet south of the area keeps any meaningful moisture return from occurring. Temperatures this weekend will climb to the 40s Saturday before topping out in the 50s and potentially 60s as a low-amplitude ridge shifts through the central CONUS that slowly flattens out into zonal flow through mid-week. Though there is considerable disagreement between ensemble solutions in the timing and placement, some form of compact shortwave/cutoff low will eject from the California coast and will provide our next meaningful precipitation chances Thursday/Friday next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions continue this afternoon and evening. Winds have gradually become more westerly early this afternoon. Winds become northwesterly later this afternoon before a cold front brings northerly winds later this evening. Low clouds with potential MVFR ceilings arrives tonight. At this time, guidance has low clouds moving in and out of terminals within a couple hours of frontal passage, but clouds may linger at OMA and LNK. Otherwise, winds become light and begin to swing around towards the east by tomorrow morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
299 FXUS63 KGID 311822 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry and mild/warm weather for the next week, with a brief retreat to near normal temperatures Thursday/Friday. - Temperatures Thursday/Friday will be held down from significant cloud cover associated with a "backdoor" cold front that should retreat to the northeast over the weekend. - Ensembles are showing some indications for a pattern shift towards the middle third of January - cooler and maybe more active, but this is obviously still a ways off. && .UPDATE... Issued at 323 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Another quiet night across the local area with just a few thin high clouds passing across the area from the north. With light westerly surface winds, temperatures are fairly mild for late December, with morning temps mostly in the middle 20s. For this afternoon, opted to increase high temperatures a couple of degrees from the previous forecast as after over-achieving a bit yesterday, see no reason why we will not over-achieve again today with limited cloud cover and westerly low level flow. A weak backdoor cold front will then edge into the area from the northeast to start the New Year, with modestly cooler temperatures New Years Day and closer to normal temps for the 2nd as significant cloud cover will help hold down afternoon temperatures. This front will then retreat to the northeast over the weekend, with a return to very mild temperatures (10-20 degrees above normal) in the forecast for the remainder of the period (Sunday onward). With high pressure forecast to persist across the local area aloft, dry weather is anticipated through the period with the next potential sign of precipitation not coming until the ridge breaks down possibly toward the latter part of next week. Several ensemble members of both the EC/GFS continue to hint at a possible return to some precipitation around the 9th or 10th of the month. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place across the CONUS thanks to deep troughing from the Hudson Bay to New England and broad ridging centered over the N Rockies. This leaves us in-between under fast NW upper flow and within downsloping/dry low level flow. Temperatures have risen nicely today into the upper 40s and lower 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Quiet and mild conditions will continue into tonight, which will provide a nice springboard for temperatures on New Year`s Eve/Wednesday. Latest forecast still calls for 50s areawide, and think areas from around Arapahoe to Stockton could even get into the low 60s. Winds will be a bit more NWrly and still mild and dry, but not so much so that the warmth comes with fire weather concerns. RHs should remain mostly upper 20s to 30s, and gusts only 20-25 MPH. So a bit elevated - and fuels are certainly dry - but not really a "near-critical" setup. A rather significant front/temperature gradient will gradually back into the area from the NE on Thursday. This could set the stage for a fairly tight temp gradient from SW to NE across Neb/Kan...ranging from near 50 along Hwy 283, to only 30s along and E of Hwy 81. Low level mixing remains very weak into Friday, so this will keep temps cool for one more day in the 30s to mid 40s. Fortunately, the cooler (but still only near-normal) will come without much wind chill. Temperatures warm up yet again for the weekend into early next week. In fact, latest ensembles are in good agreement in widespread 50s and even some lower 60s for Sun-Mon. Neither day looks overly windy, so once again, the nice weather should come without any significant fire wx threat. Lows will also remain mild and only slightly below freezing. Ensembles also indicate and general downward trend in temperatures for the second half of next week, potentially setting the stage for an actual wintry pattern for the middle third, or so, of January. Obviously, any significant pattern change is still at least 10+ days out, but something we`ll be monitoring over the coming days...because there`s simply not much else to look at. Ha! Until then, enjoy the dry and mild end to 2025 and start to 2026! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Very high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility through the first 11-12 hours. However, the latter 12-13 hours starting late tonight carries increasing probability of at least IFR/MVFR ceiling and/or visibility...but with BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE in the "finer details" even at this closer time range. As for winds, they will not be a significant issue, with the overall-strongest speeds occurring right away this afternoon (sustained 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT), but then sustained speeds mainly near-to-below 10KT through most of the remainder of the period. However, there will be various directional changes...from westerly to northwesterly this afternoon...then from northerly to easterly tonight...and finally from southeasterly to southerly Thursday morning. - Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainty: As of this writing, the leading edge of a deck of low stratus and at least light fog is located approximately 240 miles north- northeast of KGRI/KEAR, and will slowly-but-surely approach the area over the next several hours thanks to an approaching "back door" cold front. There is actually fairly high confidence that these low clouds and/or fog will first reach KGRI around 05Z/KEAR around 06Z, but what happens in the ensuing several hours currently carries quite a bit of uncertainty. The main uncertainties involve: Will the lowest ceilings/visibilities (perhaps at least IFR category for both) last only for a few hours (most favored at KGRI) or perhaps stick around for most or all of 6-12 hours (most favored at KEAR)? For now, have taken a "best guess" in TAFs, with both sites experiencing several hours of MVFR/IFR ceilings, and KEAR eventually dipping to at least MVFR visibility in fog by mid-morning. However, once again, uncertainty in exact ceiling/visibility categories and timing is running below-average at this time and later TAF issuances will hopefully gain a better handle on things. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Navigation
