Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

206
FXUS63 KOAX 311855
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
155 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Regular chances for showers and thunderstorms continue with
  more thunderstorms in the forecast for this evening,
  especially along and east of the Missouri River.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy
  weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and
  thunderstorms throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Water vapor imagery reveals an omega H5 pattern with a
negatively tilted trof over the Intermountain West and a
shortwave lifting northeast toward central Iowa, taking this
morning`s showers with it. 17Z sfc analysis reveals a stalled
front just west of the Missouri River this afternoon. Skies
have mostly cleared across the area today allowing temps to push
close to 80F once again. Today is day #8 in a row of managing
80+ in Omaha. The seasonal average for May 31st is 80F.
Unfortunately, dewpoints aren`t that far behind, mostly in the
60s.

After struggling with multiple scenarios over the first half of
the day today, CAM guidance is narrowing in on a solution of
convection developing in the vicinity of the stalled front
around 5pm-8pm. There`s little forcing for ascent, but
instability and shear (2000 J/kg and 30 knots) should be enough
to allow any storm that develops to grow strong to severe.
Expect convection to be east of the CWA before sunrise. Hail
will be the primary threat, but damaging winds look possible,
too, with low-levels remaining dry and currently deep mixing to
H7 (KOAX 18Z sounding).

.MONDAY...

Expect another toasty one to kick off meteorological summer with
widespread 80s. A few locales within a county of Kansas may
manage 90F. Today`s stalled front/baroclinic zone remains in
place and will mark the most likely location for more afternoon
convection. NBM came in dry for Monday, but I added some 20-30%
PoPs in the afternoon as the scenario is expected to be a lot
like today with perhaps better lapse rates and shear as the
negatively tilted trof pushes northeast into the Dakotas.
Afternoon storms are possible, but we may just have to wait for
the convection that develops along the Front Range/Panhandle to
find its way across the state. Those storms may be pushing into
this CWA and/or dissipating by sunrise Tuesday morning. Iowa
will remain dry, but it isn`t as safe a bet for eastern
Nebraska (30% PoPs).

.TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...

An early look at Tuesday suggests afternoon convective
development in the afternoon is possible, as is another
convective complex approaching from the west in the overnight
hours (shortwave). Expect more 80s.

.THURSDAY and FRIDAY....

As the eastern ridge continues to push in that direction, deep
moisture transport develops across the central CONUS. This
brings the week`s best chance of PoPs (50-70%) to the area with
PWAT values well over an inch and above the 95th percentile for
early June (NAEFS). NBM probabilities for 0.5" of rain or more
over 24 hours runs between 35-50% for Thursday and Friday across
the area. Afternoon 80s hold on through the work week.

.LONGER RANGE...

Ridging builds over the area over the course of the weekend, but
all 12Z global deterministic models have an mid-level low
streaking northeast just south of the area and bringing more
opportunities for needed moisture. Most of these chances are
below 50%, but stringing multiple days of 25% chance of precip
brings a `round about way for a good chance of rain.

The WPC and CPC are both pointing to a hot spell for June`s
second week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions have returned to the area as low clouds have
pushed northeast. Expect these conditions to persist with the
exception of a chance at reduced visibility during heavy rain
with the threat of thunderstorms at KOMA between 03Z and 05Z
Monday. Expect the other two TAF sites to remain dry.

Southerly winds will become light and variable overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

835
FXUS63 KGID 311751
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1251 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms continue overnight through the mid morning
  hours. Small hail is possible in the strongest storms.

- Highs in the upper 70s to 80s on today with the best chances
  for afternoon/evening showers/storms east of the forecast
  area.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances return Monday evening/night. A
  few of these storms could be strong-severe. Off and on
  chances for storms continue through the end of the forecast
  period with highs generally in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Today...

The band of thunderstorms that brought damaging wind gusts to
southwestern portions of the area has exited northeastern portions
of the area. Behind this band, two clusters of storms are ongoing
over the area. The first is across Osborne and Mitchel counties
in Kansas where weak shear is keeping storms sub-severe despite
CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg. Storms will remain pulse-y with cores
quickly strengthening and weakening. Small hail is possible in
these storms. Another concern with these storms is continued
locally heavy rainfall given the potential for multiple rounds
of storms (training) with PWAT values around 1.5". Over time
this cluster will gradually shift east/northeast out of the
area. Another cluster of showers/storms is developing across
Lincoln/Custer/Dawson counties. These showers/storms are
expected to shift east across portions of Nebraska through the
early morning hours. Lower instability over Nebraska should
limit the strength of these storms, though a stronger core could
briefly produce small hail. These showers/storms are expected
to move east of the forecast area by the mid-late morning hours
(~10am).

Skies clear from west to east during the daytime hours, though low
stratus may linger across eastern portions of the area into the
afternoon. Winds start the day southerly but shift to the
west/southwest behind a dryline. Highs today will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s warmest in the west where skies clear the soonest.
Models indicate that the best chances for precipitation are east of
the area, closer to the NE/IA border. If a storm were to form in the
area this afternoon, it would be most likely to impact locations
along Highway 81, though the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening
is currently dry.

Southwesterly flow sits over the area on Monday with a low over the
west/Rockies and a ridge over the Midwest. Highs on Monday climb
into the 80s under partly cloudy skies. The next disturbance
associated with western troughing brings the next chance for rain to
the area. Storms are favored to develop over Western NE/KS and move
into the area during the evening hours. Of note/focus is the
potential for an MCS to develop across portions of central/northern
Kansas which would carry an overall higher threat for damaging wind
gusts. Details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as we
move deeper into the range of Hi-res model guidance. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track with highs generally in the 80s and off an
on chances for showers/storms (mainly evening-overnight). Details on
any severe chances will be come clearer as we get closer in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Looks like it will be fairly active across the local area this
evening as CU is just starting to get agitated along the
dryline across southwestern Kansas. Despite fairly marginal
shear, this CU will be moving into an area of increased (and
very strong) instability which will help fuel explosive growth
as they track northward towards the local area. This will most
likely favor some large hail and strong wind gust potential as
the storms expand and merge, but if a few storms are able to
remain discrete, an isolated tornado (as advertised by SPC) will
also be possible across our local area.

This activity across southwestern Kansas this afternoon is only
one area of concern, and a separate area of convection is
anticipated to develop across the high plains to our west in
response to an upper level low rotating across northern
Colorado. Eventually, these two clusters of storms may merge
across the local area by mid to late evening as it lifts
northeast of the area overnight. As these lines of storms merge,
the main threat should transition to strong winds late tonight,
with some possible sub-severe redevelopment hinted at in its
wake during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

Thereafter...the main upper level low will then lift north
toward Montana by Sunday afternoon, with a weak west
southwesterly flow steering addition weak disturbances across
the local area as we go through the upcoming work week. While
Sunday afternoon/evening looks fairly quiet, this will result in
periodic, mainly evening/night-time chances for thunderstorms
across the local area, along with seasonably warm temperatures
through the end of the extended periods. Overall, the best shot
for some severe weather appears to be with the late afternoon
and evening convection today, but cannot rule out more isolated
chances for strong or severe storms later in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period.

Expect the BKN cloud deck near 5KFT this afternoon to continue
to erode over the next couple of hours, with mostly sunny skies
anticipated for the remainder of the afternoon. Could see some
mid level clouds near 15 KFT spill across the area during the
overnight and morning hours Monday, but these should have little
impact. VSBYs are anticipated to be good and winds less than 10
KTS through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion