Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

674
FXUS63 KOAX 261726
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures continue through Friday, with
  highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Dry weather expected to prevail until this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Weakening overnight convection continued to drift northeast of the
forecast area this morning, leaving us with clearing skies and
rising temperatures. By noon, most locations had reached the low
80s. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 80s and low 90s
once again this afternoon.

A closed low pressure system will churn through the California coast
through midweek. A lobe of low pressure/vorticity maximum will
branch off of this disturbance, creating a boundary just south
of the forecast area from northeastern Colorado through southern
Missouri. High pressure will prevail to the north of the
boundary, across southwest Iowa and into the Dakotas. This will
likely keep our much needed precipitation shunted just southeast
of the forecast area, through Wednesday and Thursday.

The west coast low will try to ebb eastward on Thursday into Friday,
shifting the slightly northward, bringing a 20-30% chance for rain
to far southeast Nebraska Friday.

The low will finally kick northeastward this weekend, but gradually
weaken as it does so.  Rain chances will overspread the forecast
area ahead of the low, but remain in the 15-40% range, as models
remain split on whether or not rain reaches us or stays on the
fringes of the forecast area.  The best chance for rain currently
resides over southeast and east/central Nebraska, with a lesser
chance (15-20%) over western Iowa. Overall, severe storm chances
appear low at this time, due to weak instability, poor shear
vectors, and meager upper level forcing. SPC and machine learning
probs share a similar sentiment with a lack of outlooks highlighting
the Central Plains over the next 7 days.

High temperatures look to remain above average, in the mid to upper
80s through Friday, but moderate into the low 80s for the weekend
and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
remain out of the south/southeast today, with occasional gusts
up to 15 to 20 kts. Wind speeds dip below 12 kts after 00Z this
evening, and become light and variable by early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

161
FXUS63 KGID 261929
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
229 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered precipitation chances (15-25%) return to the area Wednesday
  afternoon-night for southwestern portions of the area. Rain
  chances continue (15-45%) on Thursday but still favor
  southwestern areas.

- Scattered, low confidence PoPs (20-45%) continue Friday
  onwards though details remain uncertain due to a messy,
  blocking atmospheric pattern.

- Highs generally near to above normal through the forecast
  period, in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

It`s another seasonably warm day across the area with temperatures
currently in the 80s, topping out around 90 degrees. Southerly winds
are breezy this afternoon, gusting 20-30mph, strongest along/west of
Highway 183. Winds drop off after sunset becoming light overnight as
lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday...

Aloft a cutoff low will sit over the southwestern U.S. Wednesday
morning with a ridge centered over the plains, and a deepening
trough over the northeast. A weak disturbance attempts to lift out
of the southwest on Wednesday, but quickly gets trapped under the
ridge. This disturbance will gradually shift a band of scattered
showers/storms north across the Plains, reaching far southwestern
portions of the area during the afternoon/evening. The band then
stalls out and remains largely stationary through the overnight
hours. There continues to be some spread in model guidance for where
exactly this band sets up, but overall it favors areas along and
southwest of a line from Cambridge, NE to Osborne, KS. Highs on
Wednesday range from the mid 80s across southwest portions of the
area where afternoon cloud coverage increases, to the low 90s across
the northeast where sunshine dominates.

Thursday...

As the upper level blocking pattern strengthens on Thursday, the
aforementioned disturbance remains trapped under the ridge. This
limits/prevents much movement from the band, though model guidance
indicates at least some northwards movement is possible. Again,
model spread and weak flow aloft brings a fair amount of
uncertainty on the position/location of rain on Thursday. The
best chances favor locations along and southwest of the Tri-
Cities. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible where
the band eventually sets up. Highs on Thursday depend on cloud
coverage/rain vs sun, ranging from the upper 70s (southwest) to
around 90 degrees.

Friday Onwards...

The upper level pattern continues to be weak and messy through the
end of the forecast period as the omega blocking pattern remains in
place. A slightly stronger wave of upper level energy attempts to
lift into the area this weekend as the cutoff low rejoins the
jetstream. The result is another round of scattered, low confidence
PoPs across the area through the end of the forecast period. Details
will become clearer as we get closer, though the best chances favor
western portions of the area at this time. Under the influence of
ridging aloft, near to above normal temperatures are expected
through the end of the forecast period (highs low-mid 80s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southerly winds
gusting 20-25kts are expected through sunset. After sunset winds
steadily decrease with gusts falling to 10kts around midnight.
Winds remain light through the mid-morning hours but increase to
10kts by the end of the TAF period. FEW-SCT high level clouds
are possible throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion