Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

060
FXUS63 KOAX 010424
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Regular chances for showers and thunderstorms continue with
  more thunderstorms in the forecast for this evening,
  especially along and east of the Missouri River.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy
  weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and
  thunderstorms throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

We`ve seen a couple isolated storms develop this evening, some
along a boundary stretching south from ongoing storms in South
Dakota, and a couple others around the Omaha/Council Bluffs
area. Mid-level dry air is making storm development difficult,
though if storms do develop there is 2000J/kg+ of CAPE, and
1400J/kg of DCAPE. Shear is modest (75m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH),
lending to observed storms not holding together long, but
occasional low-to-mid level rotation was observed in the
earlier cell over Douglas County. The low tornado threat is only
diminishing, making primary hazards large hail and damaging
winds. Storms that develop this evening should clear out by 5AM,
with clearing skies Monday morning.

Ridging starts to build up on Monday over our area with
subsidence dampening storm potential Monday afternoon despite a
shortwave moving over our area. CAMs show a few isolated storms
through the afternoon, so introduced a 15-20% chance for a few
isolated storms. Temperatures expected to warm into the mid-to-
upper 80s during the afternoon. A more substantial shortwave
triggers convection over western Nebraska during the afternoon,
likely developing into an MCS through the evening. This could
bring us another chance for showers and storms across our far
western counties early Tuesday, though most guidance has it
dissipating before it gets any farther east.

We continue to see ridging amplify across the Central Plains
through midweek, with a moisture plume triggering storms along
the western flank of the ridge. Nightly potential for MCS
development and propagation eastward appears likely, with
increasing chances for storms to make it into eastern Nebraska
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Thursday the Ridge shifts far
enough eastward for the moisture plume to run straight up
through our area, developing storms across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa Thursday afternoon through the evening.

Going into the weekend, the ridge shifts far enough eastward
that that moisture plume drops southeast into Missouri, but a
developing surface Low over the Dakotas triggers more chances
for showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. Through the
weekend we see a baroclinic weather pattern set up with strong
ridging building up to our north, and a series of two shortwave
troughs moving northeast into Nebraska through the weekend. This
will keep chances for showers and storms for Saturday and
Sunday, while increased warm-air advection from enhanced
southerly flow will warm temperatures back into the upper 80s to
near 90.

Extreme heat appears possible next week with ample moisture
contributing to concerning heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Storms should stay mostly clear of the terminals for the rest of
the night, though we do still have a 20% chance of a storm
impacting KOMA through 07Z. Mostly clear skies expected through
morning with winds becoming northwesterly by around 10Z. Winds
continue to shift toward northerly then northeasterly by midday
Monday with a 15-20% chance for a few isolated showers/storms
Monday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

807
FXUS63 KGID 010604
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry for MOST places MOST of the day today, with a warm start
  to the work week. Highs mid-upper 80s most of our area today,
  but could touch 90 in a few southern counties.

- Thunderstorm chances return to our area this evening-
  overnight (Mon night-Tues AM). A few of these storms could be
  strong or severe.

- Off and on chances for thunderstorms will then continue
  through the end of the forecast period with highs generally
  bouncing around the 80s while remaining on the warm side of
  climatology (about 5 degrees or so above normal each day).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Partly cloudy skies returned to the area this afternoon after
another round of storms impacted much of the area Saturday
night. While there remains a very small chance for a
thunderstorms mainly east of Highway 81 tonight, most of the
models keep any convection well east of the local area and
decided to remove pops for tonight earlier this afternoon.

Overnight, expect mostly clear skies and light southeasterly
winds to combine to form a fairly favorable set up for some
light fog formation to start the day on Monday. That said, both
the HRRR and the SREF probs indicate this potential should lie
mostly to our southeast where richer moisture will linger, so
opted against introducing light fog to start the day Monday,
albeit would not be shocked if some fog did work its way
towards Thayer, Jewell and Mitchell counties towards daybreak.

With mostly sunny skies and a brief amplification of the upper
level ridge across the area ahead of the next disturbance
Monday afternoon, expect a dry and very warm day across the
area. Then, late in the day, expect and upper level disturbance
to approach from the west/southwest spreading showers and
thunderstorms across much of the local area during the late
evening through overnight hours. Given the elevated instability
and modest 0-6KM shear, could see some stronger to marginally
severe storms early on in the event favoring our west and
southwestern areas, likely favoring strong winds and hail up to
the size of half dollars.

This aforementioned disturbance will also help break down the
upper level ridge that briefly amplifies across the area Monday,
with a "messy" west southwesterly flow then continuing through
the end of the period with off and on chances for thunderstorms
and slightly cooler (yet still seasonably warm) temperatures in
the lower to mid 80s into next weekend. At this point the best
chance for severe weather appears to be Monday night, but there
will likely be additional days with the potential for at least
some strong to severe storms across the local area given the
favorable instability and moist airmass in place across the
region. Those details will be addressed as we get closer to
those additional chances for thunderstorms later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Overall high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility, along with
dry and thunderstorm-free conditions through at least the vast
majority of the period. Winds will also not be a significant
issue, as aside from any possible thunderstorm outflow mainly
very late in the period (see below for more on that
possibility), sustained speeds should prevail at-or-below 12KT
at least the vast majority of the period. Direction will start
out mainly variable (with very light speeds) early this morning,
then gradually turn from northerly to east-southeasterly through
the daytime-evening hours.

- Shower/thunderstorm and limited fog potential (the main
  caveats to prevailing VFR):
Right away through around shortly after sunrise this morning,
probably cannot totally rule out some patchy fog that could try
to reduce visibility to sub-VFR at least briefly. However, this
appears to be a low enough probability to omit from formal TAF
inclusion at this time.

Turning to rain/thunderstorm potential, first of all there is a
low (currently deemed 10-20%) chance for a passing shower or
maybe even a weak thunderstorm during the day today. However,
this chance is too low for TAF inclusion. Of somewhat greater
probability...albeit still far from a "sure thing"...is the
chance that a potentially larger-scale complex of
showers/thunderstorms could roll in from the southwest very late
in the period Monday evening. IF this occurs, a period of gusty
winds (30+KT), moderate to briefly heavy rain and possibly
small hail cannot be ruled out. For now, will only introduce
PROB30 groups for this potential...starting 03Z KEAR/04Z KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion