Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

529
FXUS63 KOAX 211057
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
557 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers are possible overnight (30-60% chance), mainly
  across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Widespread showers and few thunderstorms are expected Thursday
  night into Friday. Severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures trend warmer this weekend, with mostly dry
  conditions expected for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Tonight through Friday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis show weak troughing
across the western and central CONUS, resulting in generally
southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Increasing moisture
advection tonight will bring a 30-60% chance of rain to areas mainly
south of Interstate-80. Showers should remain light, with rainfall
amounts limited to a few hundredths of an inch. A small pocket of
MUCAPE will also bring a few rumbles of thunder into the
area. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 40s.

Cloud cover and cooler conditions will persist through Thursday,
with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s, about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than seasonal norms. A brief lull in precipitation chances is
expected Thursday afternoon and evening before becoming more
widespread Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave disturbance
pivots across the Front Range into the northern Plains. PoPs peak at
75-95% late Friday morning. Additional spotty showers and
thunderstorms are expected later in the day as a cold front pushes
through. There appears to be enough instability for a few rumbles of
thunder, but severe weather is not expected. Rain chances will
gradually taper off Friday afternoon and evening, with highs again
topping out in the low to mid 60s. Latest NBM guidance shows a
widespread 70-90% probability for at least 0.25 inch of
precipitation, along with a 40-70% probability of at least 0.50 inch
through the period.

Saturday and Beyond...

A warming trend will take hold through the weekend as mid-level
ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. Highs will
climb into the low 70s on Saturday, low 80s on Sunday, and generally
the mid 80s from Memorial Day into the start of next week. The
weekend looks mostly dry. Confidence in the large-scale pattern
decreases through the remainder of next week. Long-range guidance
suggests a trough may move in from the western CONUS by mid to late
week, though considerable spread remains in the timing and track of
this features, leading to uncertainty in any additional
precipitation chances. For now, periodic 15-30% PoPs persist through
much of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Ceilings are lowering this morning, with clouds at FL040-060
becoming increasingly widespread while southeasterly winds
slowly spread eastward from where they are already in place near
KOFK. Chances at rain are still set to move in this evening,
with MVFR to IFR conditions building in during the evening into
the overnight hours, with the lowest ceilings being near KLNK
and areas southwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

191
FXUS63 KGID 211145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated showers today will be followed by more
  scattered activity in the evening. A more robust and
  widespread cluster of showers and weak thunderstorms will come
  late tonight into Friday morning (best potential between
  3-11AM Friday).

- Around 0.25-0.5" of precipitation will be possible to fall
  across the area through Friday afternoon. The rest of the
  weekend (starting Friday evening) should remain mostly dry.

- Highs today in the 60s will gradually raise up to the mid to
  upper 80s again by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026


A few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms will pass through the
area today with increasing precipitation coverage and potential
reserved for the evening and especially the late night to Friday
morning timeframe (best potential between 3-11AM). The area
continues to reside underneath broad southwest flow from the
presence of weak ridging over the eastern half of the U.S. and broad
troughing across the intermountain west region. A momentum transfer
taking place today from an advancing southern Idaho to northern Utah
centered jet streak, will dislodge a shortwave trough out into the
Central Plains region by Friday morning.

This disturbance will kick up a cluster of showers and storms
overnight tonight that will approach the area by early Friday
morning (from a mix of isentropic and CVA based assent). Between
0.25-0.5" of precipitation will be possible to fall across the
overnight to Friday afternoon period (the greatest precipitation
amounts will be concentrated to the north and west). Though
modest shear will be present from the presence of the mid-to-upper
level disturbance (40-50kts of Bulk Shear), weak instability
(

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion