Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

907
FXUS63 KOAX 152254
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
554 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers or a thunderstorm or two possible after 10 PM.

- Our next notable chance for any thunderstorms appears to be on
  Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western
  Iowa.

- Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire
  danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Broad troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is evident
in afternoon water vapor imagery, with ridging continuing to hold
over the Pacific Coast. A ridge of high surface pressure rules over
our weather today, with westerly winds and dry weather making for a
beautiful day to be outside. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to
low 80s, with only a few gusts to 20-25 mph expected this afternoon,
primarily across northeast Nebraska. A frontal system is inbound for
the late evening/overnight hours, that will really struggle to
amount to much more than a sprinkle or two across far northeast
Nebraska and northwest Iowa thanks to measly instability and
moisture as it passes.

Tomorrow will see temperatures increase, with southwesterly to
westerly winds developing during the morning hours as a warm front
takes shape to the west. Strong warm air advection and lift near the
front itself will try to spur on some afternoon showers and a
stray rumble of thunder, but chances for any meaningful,
widespread rainfall remain low.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Wednesday continues to be of concern on a few fronts: the heat,
storm chances, and potential fire danger across northeast
Nebraska. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the
peak of heat over the next 7 days, with the edge of it being
taken off by the passage of a front that helps scour out
moisture and increase winds locally. Those winds are expected to
gust to 35-45 mph, with humidity values being low enough to
drive very high to potentially extreme fire danger across
northeast Nebraska during the afternoon hours. That passing
front will also help drive shower/storm chances to the
northeast, and later in the afternoon to the southeast. The
timing of the front will make it difficult for any severe threat
to linger very long during the afternoon hours before it slips
to the southeast of the area. It appears that the storms that do
from will quickly grow upscale, muting the upwards potential
for hazards while still keeping everything on the board before
they move out.

Winds will take a bit to calm down but once they do, a beautiful day
in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees will carry us into the end
of the week. Highs do trend upwards Friday/Saturday, with a more
summer-like feel to the day-to-day forecast -- including increasing
potential for late evening/overnight storms plowing eastward from
the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty west
winds are slowly weakening late this afternoon and evening ahead
of a weak front. As the front moves south through the region,
winds become northwesterly. A few showers or a thunderstorm or
two may develop along and ahead of this front. At this time, the
best chance of rain remains outside of the vicinity of each TAF
site. If any of this activity was to impact a terminal, impacts
would be brief and minimal. Surface high pressure fills in
behind the front tonight into Tuesday. Winds remain light and
northwesterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

435
FXUS63 KGID 152348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance (20-30%) spotty showers and thunderstorms late
  tonight into early Tuesday southeast of the Tri-cities into
  southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Hot and windy on Wednesday. Highs in the 90s with winds 20-30
  gusting to 40 mph.

- Thunderstorm chances increase (greater than 40-60%) for the
  weekend as the pattern becomes more active.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the
great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the
area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during
the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to
impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even
moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to
Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not
expected to be strong or severe.

As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the
pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week.
The next front will move through the area Wednesday.
Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in
the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models
currently show the front traversing the area during the day,
which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly
downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up
where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the
southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the
front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the
front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across
the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas,
especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near
critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the
fuels and the weather conditions.

After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a
bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week.

The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an
upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday
into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is
currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could
be strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF...any
clouds moving through look to remain in the mid-upper levels.
Winds early this evening are expected to turn more westerly,
diminishing in speed...with most of the overnight hours into the
morning on Tuesday looking to have more light/variable winds
develop. Through the afternoon, winds are expected to turn more
southwesterly...some gusts near 20 MPH possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion