49°F
Updated:
3/4/2026
3:03:47pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
186 FXUS63 KOAX 041938 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 138 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog will redevelop overnight (70-90% chance) in western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska. - Temperatures peak in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees on Thursday and Friday. - Potential is increasing (5-10%) for a few strong storms to join in the widespread shower chances (30-50%) late Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 Another cool and gloomy day across the area today due to a low deck of stratus at about 1 kft AGL. There is some sun to be found in far northeast Nebraska this afternoon. Skies over the eastern half of the area will remain mostly cloudy to overcast through the night. Some patchy drizzle was recorded this morning in the Omaha metro area as a shortwave worked through the KC metro area. Satellite imagery reveals split flow over the central plains with an area of diffluence directly over the cloudy skies of eastern Nebraska. An H5 shortwave trof is pushing out of northeast Colorado. PoPs will briefly tick up again (20%) southeast of the Omaha metro between 8pm and 2am as forcing for ascent increases ahead of the vort max and diffluent flow ahead of it. Light rain would be the result. Of course this means 80% chance of staying dry there and better chances elsewhere. Patchy fog is expected to develop for a third night in a row. Best chances (70-90%) look to be along and east of the Missouri River although all areas are at threat. Low temperatures overnight should remain at or above freezing which will allow windshield wipers to make quick work of any fog accumulations. .THURSDAY... Thursday may be the warmest day of the week for the northern half of the CWA, depending on when Friday`s cold front pushes through. Most locations will peak in the mid- to upper-60s. As the upper trof approaches from the Great Basin area, southerly winds will pick up speed through the day. They`ll pull in increasingly moist and warm air. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) wait until after midnight. Elevated instability means severe concerns (5-10% probability) will likely be limited to hailstones of up to 1.25" with the nose of the LLJ deserving to be highlighted as the greatest threat. Most will hear thunder at best. QPF for those that see the showers could be a welcomed 0.5 to 1.0" inches. .FRIDAY... Friday`s severe thunderstorm chances are less certain for this part of the plains, but central Iowa and Missouri may be in trouble. Our threat will depend on the eventual timing of the cold front and the evolution of Thursday`s convection. About half the guidance has the front southeast of the CWA by the time of convective initiation. The NAM, RRFS, and GFS seem to have it out for us. If they`re right and the front were to remain in southeast Nebraska in the afternoon hours, it will be pushing into a highly sheared environment with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE capable of producing supercells. Behind the front, we`ll see a chance of snow in northeast Nebraska in the system`s deformation zone. Accumulations would be light, but remain possible. There`s a 60% chance of a trace near O`Neill, NE. As you travel southeast, that chance fades to 20% chance at KOFK and falls all the way to 0% chance by the time you arrive at Lincoln and Fremont. .WEEKEND AND MORE... Temps take a step back (50s) for Saturday, but will climb through the 60s Sunday and are progged to hit 70s by Monday. The trof in the western CONUS will cut-off and retrograde to Baja, California leaving our area in a quasi-zonal flow. This will leave the area in what might be a busy pattern. Deterministic global guidance indicates the cut-off low will eject east by mid-week and may bring another chance of precip, but timing and location question marks are written in a big font in dark ink. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 Morning fog has been slow to dissipate, with a longer timeline than forecast. Have maintained IFR cigs across the area through 20Z when we expect to see some clearing in northeast Nebraska and clouds to push closer to FL015 at KLNK and KOMA. Some light drizzle has been reported in western Iowa and the Omaha area. This may (30%) continue through the evening with a shower possible in the same areas (
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
520 FXUS63 KGID 042003 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 203 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to widespread fog may develop tonight into Thursday morning. - A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible Thursday evening/night. - There is high uncertainty on high temperatures and placement of precipitation on Friday. Snow may impact portions of the area as well as severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 An upper level trough is over the central Plains with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are light and variable. Skies across the area are gradually clearing from west to east. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm up into the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Light south to southeast winds will be present tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies. Fog may develop tonight due to the above mentioned conditions. Models are not in agreement on fog development so confidence is medium (around 50%). Patchy fog was added areawide to the grids tonight into Thursday morning but this may need to be upgraded to widespread dense fog with a possible advisory being issued. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will increase out of the southeast to south on Thursday. A lee surface trough will develop across eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and western Kansas on Thursday in response to an approaching upper trough. Temperatures across the area are expected to warm up into the 60s and low 70s. Upper lift from the approaching upper trough as well as lift from an approaching cold front will move across the area Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will increase across the area with dewpoints reaching into the 50s across much of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop beginning Thursday evening/night. Not expecting much in the way of severe weather due to very low CAPE but moderate lapse rates and atmospheric lift and high wind shear could result in a few strong to marginally severe storms. Low temperatures Thursday night may range from the 30s to the 50s depending on the location of the cold front. Rain and storms may continue into the day on Friday with the cold front moving into the area. There is much uncertainty with high temperatures on Friday due to the timing of the front. High temperatures on Friday may range from the 40s in the north to the 70s in the south. High temperatures may be reached for most areas during the morning hours depending on the timing of the front. There will also be precipitation development behind the front but there is uncertainty if much of the Hastings forecast area will be impacted by the precipitation. The most likely areas to experience precipitation will be northern and western areas. The factors that will determine precipitation across the area will be dependent upon the placement of the upper low as well as drier air moving into the area. If precipitation does move into the area behind the cold front, some of it may be in the form of snow due to temperatures possibly dropping near or below freezing. There is even a possibility of severe storms across mainly southeastern portions of the area on Friday depending on the placement of the front and upper low. Any remaining precipitation may linger into Friday night. Temperatures are expected to cool into the 20s and 30s Friday night behind the front. A surface high will be present across the area on Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s. A warm up is expected Sunday into Monday with highs on Monday in the 70s. A cold front will bring temperatures into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Precipitation chances return to the area Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low ceilings are expected to clear out of the area from west to east this afternoon. Fog will likely develop overnight possibly as early as 06z but more likely between 09z and 12z. It is expected to last until around 15z - 17z. Visibilities down to 1/4 mile are possible, especially around 12z. Winds are expected to become southeasterly by 21z and will generally be out of the southeast to south through the end of the period with stronger winds late tomorrow morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt
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