56°F
Updated:
6/15/2026
01:12:00am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
509 FXUS63 KOAX 150500 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for Monday, with spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two possible after 10 PM. - Our next notable chance for any thunderstorms appears to be on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. - Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Pretty quiet across the region this evening despite a shortwave trough spinning through along the NE/SD border. It was leading to some sprinkles/light rain in north-central into northeast NE and these should continue across the forecast area. That said, with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s and many model soundings showing a fair amount of dry air just above the surface, not expecting much to reach the ground. We`ll stay under northwesterly flow aloft on Monday with westerly surface flow helping to warm us up a bit compared to today. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will push into and through the area Monday evening into early Tuesday with guidance in good agreement that we`ll have at least spotty showers and perhaps a few storms ahead of it. Instability looks pretty limited, so they shouldn`t be too impactful. Surface high pressure behind the front should lead to a quiet day once the front pushes southeast, likely by 7-8 AM. Wednesday remains the day with potential impactful weather as a trough continues to deepen over the central CONUS and an upper level jet starts to nose into the area. At the surface, an area of low pressure will push east across the Dakotas/NE with southerly flow ahead of it ushering in warm, moist air to the forecast area. However, latest guidance suggests a cold front and dry air will quickly push through the area during the day, limiting warm sector severe weather potential in our area to extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. In fact, most guidance favors storm development staying to our southeast completely. Still, ingredients will be there for all severe weather hazards, so if progression of the system slows at all, our severe weather threat will ramp up quite a bit. In addition, the aforementioned dry air combined with gusty northwest winds behind the front will lead to some fire weather concerns in northeast NE, where they have missed out on much of the recent rainfall. EPS mean wind gusts are around 40 mph while RH is progged to dip into the lower 20s. Otherwise, prior to the front`s arrival, temperatures look to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but of course this will depend on exact timing of the system passing through. Thursday will be cooler behind the front, as we top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some guidance hints that northeast NE/west-central IA could be clipped by some weak shortwave energy/light rain, but amounts would likely be very limited, if it happens at all. Southerly flow returns Friday and should warm us back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. We`ll also see periodic shower and storm chances into the weekend as a surface low spins up over eastern CO and moisture transport points into the area, while shortwave energy also slides through. However, still lots of details to be worked out in this timeframe with quite a bit of spread in guidance on timing and track of various features. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the terminals. Expect a few clouds moving into the region late Monday morning. Light winds become westerly by 12-14Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
613 FXUS63 KGID 150542 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions are favored through the upcoming work week. - Near to above-normal temperatures return by midweek. - Better chances for thunderstorms return to the area Saturday night into next Sunday (MAYBE our next severe storm risk too?) && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 There will be a few opportunities for sprinkles or light rain showers this week, but widespread or "meaningful" rain is not expected. The 12Z global ensembles show a 60-90% chance for less than 0.10" of total rainfall through Friday. The first opportunity for sprinkles will be tonight into Monday morning, followed by another opportunity for spotty showers and weak t-storms Monday night. Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek (90s to low 100s on Wed). That said, humidity remains quite low through Wednesday, so heat index values should remain below 100 degrees for the entire area. A shortwave will move through the region on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain/t-storms should remain to our east. This shortwave will bump temperatures down a bit for Thursday, but near to above- normal temperatures return for the weekend. Ensembles continue to advertise reasonably high chances for rain/t-storms returning next weekend (June 20-21st) as a shortwave moves through the central/northern Plains. Of course, details remain pretty uncertain at this time range, this could feature at least some severe weather. The 00Z CSU-MLP severe probs have a 5% contour across much of the region on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports... VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at both airports. A shortwave slipping by now may drag a FEW-SCT mid-clouds across the area early in the forecast but skies will be clear by sunrise. Winds will remain light and more variable through mid-morning as surface high pressure slides across the area. Winds steady out from a westerly direction and may be occasionally gusty to 18KTS through the afternoon hours before dropping off again as evening approaches. High clouds will thicken from the northwest late in the forecast period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
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