Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

877
FXUS63 KOAX 251719
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued cold through Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory
  is in effect for the coldest wind chills of -15 to -25
  Monday morning.

- Northwesterly flow over the region will bring potential for
  light snow to the region late this week. The best chance being
  Thursday night through Friday (20-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Today through Monday Morning...

The last lingering dregs of falling snow shifted southeast of the
forecast area after midnight last night, leaving a swath of clouds
over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, and clear skies to the
northwest. Temperatures fell into the single digits below
0 overnight, with wind chills dropping to the negative teens.

Temperatures are expected to warm into the teens this afternoon,
before the next arctic cold front sweeps into the region. While the
CAMs indicate the potential for a few flurries to sneak into far
northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa, model soundings continue to
struggle with sufficient saturation to produce snow. While a couple
of flakes may reach the surface this afternoon, no notable
accumulation is expected.

Temperatures plummet -5 to -10 Sunday night, with wind chills
dipping as low as -15 to -25 by Monday morning. A Cold Weather
Advisory has been issued for all of eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa from late tonight through Monday morning. While
model guidance was borderline on wind chills falling into the
-20s over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, recent snowfall
and clearing skies will likely enhance radiational cooling
overnight, leading colder than expected temperatures.

Monday Afternoon and Beyond...

Warming downslope flow will allow temperatures to rebound into the
20s and low 30s Monday afternoon. Similar temperatures are expected
to persist through Tuesday and Wednesday, with morning lows falling
into the low teens and single digits above 0. Temperatures will
likely dip a few degrees, into the 20s, by the end of the week.

Northwesterly flow will remain in place over the region, bringing
the potential for at least a few shortwaves to ripple through the
central CONUS. LREF and NBM probs indicate the best chance for at
least a glancing blow of light snow would be Wednesday into Thursday
morning (10-15%), and Thursday evening through Friday (20-40%).
Currently, it looks like any accumulations with these waves would
likely be light, generally around an inch or less.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A weak front is in the process of moving through the area today
with light and variable winds ahead of the boundary switching to
north-northwest behind it. Sustained speeds will steadily
increase to 12-14 kt this afternoon into evening. Higher gusts
are possible, especially at KOFK and KLNK. Current upstream
observations across SD and model soundings suggest that low
clouds will increase this afternoon (around FL025) with the
most likely location for temporary MVFR conditions being at
KOFK late this afternoon into early evening. A few flurries may
also occur at that time.

Clouds and winds decrease overnight with the wind direction
changing to southwest on Monday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

923
FXUS63 KGID 251747
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1147 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until Noon Monday.
  Wind chill values will fall as low as -15 to -25 degrees
  across the overnight and early morning hours.

- Highs today will barely stretch into the teens to low 20s with
  overnight lows tonight bottoming out for the weekend across
  the negative single digits (-5 to -12 degrees).

- A few areas of flurries concentrated out west today may clip
  by a few western and southwestern lying locations this
  afternoon (10-20% chances). No additional snow accumulations
  is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026


The winter system responsible for the snow across the past 48 hours
has completely exited the area as of earlier tonight. We now shift
our attention towards the dangerously cold temperatures and arctic
airmass that still resides across the region. Aloft, an upper level
trough that has been recently feeding moisture up from the
southwest, is now in the act of pivoting eastward. Northwest flow
will soon retake control of the upper-levels, leading to cooling
aloft. In addition, a Western U.S. ridging pattern will soon push
closer into the Central Plains by the middle of the week, keeping
any sign of any organized precipitation system out of the discussion
for the short-term.

The more important meteorological feature regarding the near-tem
forecast will be from the presence of a surface trough now on its
way across the Northern Plains. Higher pressure centered behind this
disturbance (currently situated over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan)
will further help push down one final kiss of arctic air this
evening and tonight.

Temperatures peaking in the mid teens to low 20s today will once
again drop sharply overnight as lows plummet towards their coldest
point of the week (temperatures as low as -5 to -12 degrees). In
addition, the aforementioned low-level trough will guide steady 10-
20MPH northerly winds this afternoon, gusting as high as 25-30MPH.
These winds will will quickly lighten overnight as the higher
pressure center descends down from the north, stabilizing the wind
field later this evening and tonight.

Despite the light winds across the overnight hours, wind chill
values will still fall as low as between mainly -15 and -25 degrees
mainly from the influence of the cold airmass. Given the
continuation of this extended period of dangerous overnight
temperatures, the Cold Weather Advisory currently in effect, will
continue through 11AM Monday.

Otherwise, a brief period of mostly clear skies this morning will
become covered as the surface trough passes overhead. A few
flurries, especially for areas east of HWY-281, will have a minor
chance of seeing a few flurries drop out from underneath these
clouds (10-20% chance). The intensity of any areas of flurries
should be minor enough and/or brief enough to prevent any additional
snow accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the second wave of this
double-headed winter monster of a system ejecting NEward out of
the Baja region. This wave will continue NE this evening and
overnight and keep widespread wintry precipitation going across
much of the central CONUS. However, for us, regional radar
imagery indicates a gradual decline in reflectivity over the
past 1-2 hours as drier air nudges in from the N. Expect this
trend to continue as the main baroclinic zone sharpens up well
S/SE of our area and focuses the main area of precipitation
there. Earlier today, we cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory
for areas along the NE/KS state line and moved up the end time
of the Winter Storm Warning to midnight. These actions were in-
line with hi-res model trends at the time, and generally still
appear to be on-track. Mitchell Co appears most at-risk for
additional snowfall accumulation of consequence around 1", or
so. Elsewhere, additional accumulations should be 1/2", or less.

The other story remains the very cold temperatures. No major
changes to forecast wind chills with this package, or the
ongoing Cold Weather Advisory. Continued light winds will keep
values fairly close to air temperatures tonight into Sunday
morning. However, models still indicate an increase in NWrly
winds through the afternoon/evening Sunday, which will continue
into Sunday night. Thus, expect another dip in wind chills to
dangerous levels of -15F to -25F Sunday night into Monday
morning. Worth noting that improvement will be somewhat slow
Monday AM as, even though air temps will warm into the teens to
around 20F by midday, wind speeds will also be increasing. Thus,
wind chills probably don`t rise above 0F until early afternoon.

The rest of the week doesn`t look quite as cold. However, we`re
putting down a lot of coverage of snow and ice across a
significant portion of the central CONUS this weekend, and
that`s going to take some work to overcome. Often times, models
under-estimate this and warm temperatures too quickly. Expect
we`ll see highs climb back into the 30s for midweek, but
widespread or persistent 40s are becoming increasingly hard to
come by for Tue-Wed in recent models trends. Ensembles suggest
another lobe of Arctic air for late week behind a clipper-like
system, but so far, it doesn`t appear to be as severe or long-
lasting as this weekend`s. This looks to be our next somewhat
decent chance for moisture, albeit weak/light.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Expect some FEW-SCT
stratocu to work in from the N this aftn, but CIGs and coverage
shouldn`t become MVFR based on latest models trends. Should see
decreasing clouds late eve and overnight, with mostly clear
skies for the rest of the period. Winds will be breezy out of
the NW this aftn then weaken to light and variable overnight.
Winds will pick back up out of the SW Mon AM, again becoming a
bit breezy for the late AM and aftn hours. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion