Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

156
FXUS63 KOAX 230421
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into
  Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s.

- The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night, with totals
  approaching 1 to 2 inches in southeast Nebraska.

- Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index
  values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Pretty quiet across the area as of 11 PM, with earlier rain
having largely dissipated. However, additional showers and
storms are still on track to move into portions of the area
Thursday morning as another shortwave trough slides through and
low level moisture transport points toward the area. Little to
no instability will be in place, so thunderstorms chances will
be quite low, but any showers that do develop could be somewhat
efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
climbing over 1.75" near the NE/KS border and warm cloud depths
over 4 km. That said, latest guidance has trended toward keeping
the heavier precip farther southwest, with only a 10% chance of
seeing at least 1" clipping Jefferson County. In fact, now only
expecting a few tenths of an inch at most southwest of a line
from Albion to Beatrice, with maybe only a few hundredths to the
northeast. Despite the downward trend in precip chances,
temperatures look to remain on the cooler side, with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

While any showers should dissipate through Thursday afternoon,
we`ll once again see shower and storm redevelopment Thursday
evening into early Friday as a stronger shortwave trough moves
through with low level moisture transport pointing into
southeast NE. Like tonight, trends with the heaviest
precipitation have been a little farther south. Elevated
precipitable water values (near 2") and warm cloud depths over
4.5 km suggest we`ll have some efficient rain producers. In
addition, it looks like we`ll have maybe a little more
instability, at least along the NE/KS border, so could see
totals over 1" in that area, with some localized 2+" amounts.
We`ll have to see how things trend through the day on Thursday.
Otherwise, precip will taper off through the day with lingering
clouds giving us one more day of highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s for most.

Heat will then build back in for the weekend and into next week
as ridging to our west will amplify and edge eastward. NAEFS
and EPS guidance shows 850 mb temperatures climbing into the mid
and then upper 20s Saturday and Sunday, good for the 90th+
percentile of climatology. Still some questions on how deep
we`ll mix with stark differences between EPS and GEFS guidance.
GEFS members are almost certainly over-mixed with temperatures
well into the 100s area-wide. EPS seems more reasonable with
highs in the mid 90s to around 100, but with our tendency to mix
a little deeper on anomalously warm days would lean toward
slightly higher temperatures than what EPS is showing. In
addition, between moisture advection and corn
evapotranspiration, dewpoints look to climb back into the 70s
and lead to heat indices in at least parts of the area Saturday
through Monday. Sunday currently looks like the hottest day,
with many locations seeing heat indices of 105 to 110.

All that said, one fly in the ointment on the temperature
forecast will be potential for various bits of shortwave energy
to round the ridge and slide through the forecast area giving us
chances for showers and storms, or at the very least, clouds.
Still quite a bit of spread in timing, track, and strength of
these disturbances, but currently looking at occasional 10-20%
chances, especially in northeast NE into west-central IA Sunday
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with lingering
ceilings at 5000-7000 ft. A few showers will continue this
evening, but latest trends suggest TAF sites should stay mostly
dry. Additional shower and storm development is expected early
Thursday, with the highest chances moving toward LNK in the
afternoon and remaining southwest of OMA and OFK. Can`t
completely rule out a brief drop to MVFR with any heavier
showers. Otherwise, expect light and northeasterly winds
overnight to settle at southeasterly Thursday morning with
speeds hovering around 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

457
FXUS63 KGID 222330
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple rounds of beneficial showers and non-severe
  thunderstorms tonight through Friday morning.

- Heat returns this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Showers and a few weak t-storms persist near and north of I-80
as of early afternoon. This will gradually clear through the
afternoon, but lingering cloud cover will keep our
northern/eastern zones significantly cooler than further
southwest that have seen mostly sunny skies nearly all day.

After a dry evening, scattered showers and a few t-storms
redevelop early Thursday morning, aided by convergence in the
850-700mb layer. Instability is limited, so severe weather is
not expected, but this does have the potential to be produce
heavier rain than Wednesday morning. Based on the 12Z HREF, localized
rain totals of 1.00-2.50" are possible (10% chance), with more
widespread totals in the 0.15-0.75" range.

Much like Wednesday, rain will clear out in the afternoon,
allowing temperatures to rebound to the mid 70s to near 90
degrees (warmest in the southwest). One more round of showers
and thunderstorms is expected to develop Thursday evening.
Given the relative warmth in portions of KS, a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out in these areas, but widespread strong to
severe storms are not expected.

Friday will dry out and trend warmer, and this trend will
continue into the weekend. Widespread highs in the 90s are
expected to return for Saturday, and many areas will approach
100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Relatively high surface moisture
will result in quite high heat index values. At this point, it
appears likely (70%) that we will exceed 105 degree heat
indices, and 110 degree heat indices are very possible (30%).


This wave of extreme heat looks to be relatively short-lived,
though. Global ensembles favor a return to more seasonable
warmth for the middle to end of next week. This will also be
accompanied by additional chances for rain/t-storms, although
there is some uncertainty on how widespread/beneficial these
will be.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low MVFR to potentially IFR conditions possible Thursday
morning. Otherwise predominantly VFR conditions favored during
TAF period. A band of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
is expected to develop over KEAR/KGRI after midnight. In
stronger showers, visibility and ceilings could fall below VFR.
After sunrise on Thursday, low stratus develops over the area
with prevailing MVFR to potentially IFR CIGS during the late
morning-early afternoon hours. Confidence in the location or
occurrence of IFR conditions is too low to include in the TAF at
this time, for now have indicated the potential with a SCT009
group. Showers/storms come to an end during the early afternoon,
first at KEAR then KGRI, with ceilings improving to VFR. Used
Prob30 groups to indicate the broad time when embedded
thunderstorms are possible in a broader rain shield. Easterly
winds shift to the southeast overnight, increasing during the
afternoon hours on Thursday with gusts around 20kts possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion