Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

539
FXUS63 KOAX 112321
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm through Friday and possibly into Saturday when
  highs will be in the 60s to low 70s.

- Dry through the work week with precipitation chances dwindling
  for the weekend (10-15% chance Saturday night through
  Sunday).

- 30-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance we see some
  accumulating snow in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Early afternoon analysis showed a surface trough extending from
central IA into far southeast NE and into KS. Behind the
trough, northwest winds were a touch breezy, with a few gusts of
20-25 mph out there. Despite the northwest winds, we were much
warmer than yesterday, with temperatures as of 2 PM ranging
from the upper 50s in southwest Iowa to the lower 70s in
a few spots in eastern NE.

Meanwhile, a surface cold front started to edge into the area
from the north this afternoon and should clear south of the area
this evening with surface high pressure quickly building in
behind it. This sets the stage for a clear night with light
winds and a few pieces of guidance even develop some fog, mainly
in river valleys/low areas. However, looking at model
soundings, winds just above the surface look like they`ll stay
strong enough to keep it rather patchy if it does develop. The
rest of Wednesday will be quiet with light winds becoming
westerly to southerly as the surface high passes off to the
east. Expect highs to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Thursday, some weak shortwave energy will pass through the
area and lead to some increased cloud cover, at least to start
the day. At the surface, low pressure will start to deepen east
of the Rockies with southerly to southwesterly low level flow
strengthening. This will bump temperatures back up a few degrees
on Thursday. By Friday, a mid to upper level ridge axis will
push into the area with continued southwesterly flow. NAEFS
guidance also shows 850 mb temperatures in the 99th+ percentile
of climatology for most of the area, and while model soundings
show we won`t be mixing quite that deep, it`ll still be a very
warm airmass in place. For now, forecast high temps are in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, including 72 at Norfolk, which would tie
the record from 2001. Omaha and Lincoln could also come close to
record highs, but currently look to be a few degrees short:

Omaha - forecast 70, record 76 (1964). Lincoln - forecast 73,
record 75 (1990).

For the weekend and into early next week, guidance is starting
to come into a little bit better agreement in how things pan
out. For Saturday, a trough and surface low are on track to push
through the Dakotas/southern Canada and drag a surface cold
front through the forecast area. Still some questions on exact
timing of the front which will impact temperatures in a given
location, but currently we`re looking at highs ranging from the
lower 60s in northeast NE to the lower 70s in portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will be
pushing into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, with guidance
trending much slower on its eastward movement through the
weekend. A slower progression of this low will be at least
partially responsible for less moisture return ahead of the cold
front pushing through Saturday. This means precipitation
chances with the front continue to dwindle in our area, with
consensus now suggesting just a 10-15% chance Saturday evening
into Sunday, mainly in far southeast NE into southwest IA.

However, guidance has generally trended a bit farther north
with the southern low track as we head into Monday (though still
some differences in timing/track), with many ensemble members
taking a deformation band of precipitation across our forecast
area. While guidance generally favors rain, a few various
solutions do suggest some accumulating snow with temperatures in
the lower 30s, so definitely worth keeping an eye on the
forecast. For now, we`re looking at a 30-50% chance of
precipitation Monday, with about a 10- 15% chance of seeing
snow. Otherwise, temperatures will be on a downward trend to
begin next week, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s on
Sunday, followed by upper 40s to lower 50s Monday and Tuesday
with any precip potentially leading to even cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
remain under 12kts, out of the west/northwest overnight and into
Wednesday. A few models still hint at the potential for fog
development along river valleys and low lying areas overnight,
however breezy winds just above the surface will likely prevent
widespread development. Therefore, will continue to not mention
lower visibilities in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

763
FXUS63 KGID 112311
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
511 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gorgeous weather - including well above normal temperatures,
  plentiful sunshine, and light winds - continue through the end
  of the week. Expect afternoon highs in the 60s to around 70F
  through Saturday!

- A cold front and large scale pattern change arrives late
  Saturday. Highs will cool into the 50s to around 60F for
  Sunday, then drop further into the 40s to around 50F for much
  of next week.

- Precipitation chances (30-40%) return on Monday. Rain
  continues to look much more probable than snow at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Temperatures have exceeded expectations today, as they often do
around here when an already mild, Pacific airmass is further
modified with downsloping flow, full sunshine, and dry ground.
Nearly all areas have warmed into the 70s and some spots have
even risen into the MID 70s - a solid 5+ deg warmer than
expected 24 hours ago, despite winds having some northerly
component to them. With that said...if meteorologists are going
to be wrong about a forecast in November, this is exactly how
we`d like it to go...warmer than expected :)

The only thing better than the warmer than expected weather
today is the fact that well above normal weather will be
sticking around through the end of the work week and even into
the start of the weekend. And it looks like winds will be
weaker, especially tomorrow and Thursday. Get out and enjoy it
if you can. Might not be a bad time to get those outdoor holiday
decorations put up if you can.

Appears a significant pattern change is set to take place this
weekend, starting off with a cold front passage later in the
day on Saturday. High temperatures will fall into the 50s to
around 60F (still mild in terms of climo) on Sunday, then fall
further into the 40s to around 50F for Monday and much of next
week. We`ll likely average a solid 20-25 degrees colder next
week than this week, but believe it or not, current forecast
values for next week are still around average. If anything, the
overnight lows forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
could keep daily averages slightly above normal. Nonetheless,
after Fri-Sat, there doesn`t appear to be anymore widespread
60-70 degree days anytime soon.

Precip chances in the Sat-Sun time frame with the cold front
have trended lower and shifted more into the Sun night to Mon
time frame when the upper trough that is nearing the West Coast
now finally ejects onto the Plains. This upper low will become
cut-off over the Desert SW next few days, then deamplify and
eject E/NE early next week. Precip chances have increased into
the 30-40% range for Monday, and based off just-in 12Z EPS data
that is not included in this forecast, would expect these
chances to increase - esp. for E half of the area. Still appears
that with a lack of significant/deep cold air that rain is the
favored predominant precip type. Confidence decreases
significantly mid to late next week as it pertains to additional
precip chances...but there is a general "feel" from the
ensembles that there could be one or two waves worth watching
for potential wintry precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light northwest
winds are expected overnight, becoming light and variable around
sunrise as winds shift to the south. South winds of 5-10kts are
expected Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected
outside of a few passing high clouds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion