70°F
Updated:
5/14/2026
09:55:18am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
020
FXUS63 KOAX 141039
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
539 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds gusting up to 30 to 45 mph at times this morning
into the afternoon.
- Strong southerly winds will combine with dry fuels over
northeast Nebraska to produce extreme fire conditions today
with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10am-7pm.
- Periodic strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday
evening through Monday, with the best chances Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday afternoon/evenings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Thursday through Thursday Night...
A ribbon of isentropic lift, seen on the 305K pressure surface, will
sweep across the forecast area Thursday morning with the passage of
a subtle warm front. CAMs have been fairly consistent in firing up a
line of elevated convection along this boundary Thursday morning.
However, showers and weak thunderstorms may have to contend with
quite a bit of dry air eating away the majority of their
precipitation before it reaches the surface.
Southerly winds will increase substantially behind the front
Thursday morning into the afternoon, as a deepening low shifts along
the central CONUS/Canadian border, tightening the pressure gradient.
Gusts as high as 30-45 mph will be possible, with highest speeds
over notably dry portions of northeast Nebraska. Minimum relative
humidity will fall to 20 to 30 percent Thursday afternoon as
temperatures rise into the 80s. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for susceptible portions of northeast Nebraska, where dry tall
grasses prevail, and dead vegetation below short green grass
continues to allow for rapid fire spread.
A shortwave disturbance will ripple through the region Thursday
evening, accompanied by a weak cold front, bringing lighter winds
back to the forecast area. A few models hint at the potential for
storms to fire near the front, over Central Kansas, and congeal into
a cluster, glancing the southern half of the CWA Thursday evening
into Thursday night. While deep layer moisture will likely be
lacking, weak instability and 30-40 kts of bulk shear could be
supportive of a severe gust and large hail.
Friday and Beyond...
Temperatures climb even higher Friday, ahead of the next
approaching shortwave. Highs are forecast to reach the low and mid
90s, however they could be hindered slightly by lingering convective
cloud cover. SPC keeps us highlighted in a Marginal to Slight Risk
for severe storms Friday evening, with the potential for storms to
develop along the cold front, progged to be near southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Large hail and gusty winds would again be
the primary threats.
The cold front lingering over the region will stall as a low
pressure system develops out of the southern Plains, Saturday.
While the exact position of this boundary will likely be
influenced by Friday evening`s convection, storms will likely
fire along it as instability pools in a pocket of 35-45 kts of
deep layer shear. Supercells capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds will again be possible.
An upper trough will dig into the northern Rockies Sunday, as the
Southern Plains low is pushed northeast. A strengthening LLJ will
drive severe storm development in the vicinity of the surface low
Sunday afternoon and evening.
Some of the longer range models hint at another chance for severe
storms as the upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains
Monday afternoon and evening.
It is worth noting that lingering convection from Thursday night
could potentially effect storm chances Friday which in-turn would
ripple through chances over the weekend. While Sunday and Monday
currently appear to be the best chance for strong to severe storms,
it would be best to keep an eye out for forecast updates if you have
outdoor plans this weekend.
Temperatures will dip closer to normal next week after a weekend in
the mid to upper 80s. An active pattern looks to continue through
the upcoming week with multiple chance for additional showers and
storms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. While
strong south winds have not yet developed at the surface so far
this morning, strong low-level winds are resulting in LLWS
across the region. Strong winds should quickly develop after
sunrise in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving overhead.
A few showers and thunderstorms are expected with this
disturbance, but coverage will be limited and short-lived. OMA
may briefly see showers in the vicinity later this morning.
Otherwise, strong south winds with peak gusts between 30-35 kts
are anticipated through the afternoon. Wind speeds weaken
slightly this evening before becoming light late tonight.
Thunderstorms are possible near LNK late this evening, but
confidence in thunderstorm coverage is too low for inclusion at
this time.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
558 FXUS63 KGID 141155 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 655 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, but generally isolated coverage with lower end precipitation probabilities (10-20%). - Increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend, primarily Saturday evening/night (40-60%) and Sunday evening/night (40-60%). At least a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Precipitation is not a sure bet, but is our best chance this week. Hot weekend (mid 80s and 90s). - Cold front swings through sometime on Monday. 70s behind the front, upper 80s/90 ahead of the front. Precipitation chances slide east of our area. - Fire weather concerns still possible this weekend behind/west of the dry line, might impact our far western zones depending on dry line location near our western most counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Today... Will finally get 50 degree dew points to advect north into our forecast area today resulting in increasing instability (SB CAPE >2000 J/KG over Kansas). However, there will be a rather strong cap and likely inadequate forcing to produce much convection given the strength of the cap. Can not rule out some elevated showers above the cap, but widespread precipitation is unlikely and thus the lower end 10-20% rain chances. Interesting curved hodographs across our southeastern zones that would favor supercells, but again the cap will likely really limit convection. Friday... There will again be a pretty strong cap, but we may get hot enough (highs in the 90s) to break the cap with some isolated late day thunderstorms. Again, coverage will likely be sparse, but those that can catch a storm could quickly pick up appreciable rainfall as the winds in the vertical profile are light and these storms will not move very fast. Best chances (still only 20%) favor our eastern and southern zones. SB CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/KG support marginal to slight risk area over our southeastern zones despite weak low level shear profile. Main threats will be hail and wind. Saturday and Sunday... There is still a lot of uncertainty with the precipitation forecast, but the overall pattern is finally more favorable for a potential widespread appreciable rainfall event given the expected strength of the developing western United States upper trough and increasing low level moisture (60 plus dew points). We just need to see where the frontal boundaries (dry line and warm front) will set up and if we can finally overcome the cap given better forcing as the upper trough nears our area. Better chances for thunderstorms will be during the late evening and overnight hours as the low level jet ramps up. Afternoon heating could get the storms to initially fire and then the low level jet could help to sustain them. It currently appears that both wind shear (>50kts) and instability (>3000 J/KG) will be rather high this weekend making severe weather a possibility. Would not be surprised to see the severe threat level increased as we get closer and better iron out the most favored locations. Models are currently confident (over 75% likelihood) in a warm/hot weekend with highs in the 80s to around 90 on Saturday and then 90s for Sunday. Monday... There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding cold frontal passage timing resulting in a huge model temperature spread over the Tri-Cities (25th and 75th percentile highs 71-96). Better rain chances are expected to shift east with the instability/front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 A more active pattern is setting up as zonal flow transitions and a trough sets up over the western half of the country this weekend putting the Plains under southwesterly flow aloft. Thursday-Friday: Southerly surface level flow will be strong, beginning in the overnight hours tonight and continue through Thursday. This will help advect up higher dew point temperatures. Models are quick with this moisture return, but there are some reservations as to how far north the higher dew points will get. Along and ahead of the front, some models indicate that there may be enough moisture transport in a narrow corridor (aided by today`s southerly winds over the High Plains) to support thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. The current forecast is dry, but for areas along and west of Highway 183, there is a 15-20% chance for thunderstorms. Instability across the remainder of southern Nebraska looks marginal at best, while the best conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be across central and eastern Kansas just to the east of our forecast area. Temperatures will be warm for the end of the work week, but current forecast highs could be slightly overdone and tried to taper them down slightly with this forecast, especially where low level moisture begins to increase across southern and southeastern Nebraska. Saturday - Monday: The weekend also looks warm, with temps generally in the mid- upper 80s. Confidence is low that the weekend, despite all the rain chances, will be a rainout. The primary concern is that many will not see much rain that the drought stricken area is desperate for. There will be a number of weak waves ahead of the main disturbance that looks to eject northeastward on Monday. These weak waves will bring chances for precipitation and some severe weather to the area for the weekend, the main time period looks to be Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon and overnight. Uncertainty remains high in the central part of Nebraska/Kansas for where the best low level moisture and surface front will be and thus where thunderstorm activity will fire, especially on Sunday. There is a chance that we could generally be quiet, watching activity in Eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas. This uncertainty persists for Monday with precipitation and temperatures. If the front has moved through, it could be a much cooler day than is currently indicated in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Strong low level wind shear will persist for another hour or so this morning and then the southerly surface winds will quickly increase and remain breezy through the morning before beginning to decrease this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are generally around or less than 20 percent so have left them out of the TAF for now. VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF valid period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Today... RH values will be higher (20-30%) and the stronger winds (30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher and then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon as RH values fall into the 20-30% range. Friday... RH values will dip again generally around or below 20% (especially western zones), but with lighter winds (20%) back into portions of our region. One concern will be where the dry line sets up, which could impact our far western counties. RH values west of the dry line on Sunday could fall below 20%. With the stronger winds on Sunday this could be a big fire weather concern for our far western zones or areas just west of our forecast area. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wesely DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Wesely FIRE WEATHER...Wesely
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