Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

386
FXUS63 KOAX 182342
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
542 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering cloud cover and cool temperatures overnight will
  lead to areas of patchy fog or drizzle (20-30% chance).

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 20-50% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features yet another spinning low
over the California/Baja coast working to stream moisture into the
Desert Southwest ahead of it, while weak ridging is sandwiched
between it and the departing wave pushing across the southern
Great Lakes region. A recent surface analysis has a cold front
extending along the Nebraska/Kansas border that connects to the
surface low pressure trough near eastern Iowa, with low cloud
cover filling in just to the north of the front. Areas that have
avoided clouds for most of the day have been able to warm into
the lower 50s while the rest of the forecast area has remainder
dreary and chilly in the 40s with northerly winds.

Overnight, the main concern will be lower visibilities, which may
manifest differently across portions of the forecast area. Deeper
moisture will linger along the NE/IA border into northwest and
central Iowa, with low-level lapse rates being steep enough for
some drizzle to develop after 8 PM. The second area of lower
visibility would likely develop late into the overnight hours,
where limited cloud cover will allow for increased radiational
cooling to occur and help surface air temperatures fall to the
crossover temperatures. This area will be focused generally
over south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas, with
uncertainty as to how far it extends into southeast Nebraska. In
between these two areas, better visibilities are expected
overnight and into tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow, expect to see the bulk of the low-level cloud cover
departing to the east by the afternoon hours, with mid/high clouds
letting us see at least some sun. Winds will swing easterly in the
morning, becoming southerly and gusty by the afternoon hours and we
will see temperatures improve in kind, topping out in the upper 50s
for eastern Nebraska while the border into Iowa reaches the low 50s.

Thursday and Beyond:

In the wee hours of Thursday morning, a weak cold front will once
again begin to swing winds northwesterly -- moving slowly
southeastward while bringing with it continued dry weather as most
of the deeper moisture continues to be relegated to the states south
of the forecast area. High temperatures will counter-intuitively be
as warm if not slightly warmer compared to Wednesday for most of
the area, thanks to clearer skies and lingering southwesterly
winds ahead of the front holding on into the afternoon.

Friday into the weekend continues to trend drier, with the latest
runs of the deterministic and ensemble models ushering the
forcing from the aforementioned CA/Baja low across Kansas with
some of the northern extent of the rainfall clipping our
southern border. Even if we see a northward nudge to the system,
rain will be forecast due to the primary jet stream locking up
the coldest air in Canada. Yet another California coastal low
will have developed by this time, poised to eject northeastward
for another similar patter to what we`ve seen over the last
several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings favored to stick around into Wednesday, scattering
out toward late morning/early afternoon. Guidance still suggests
some fog/drizzle could develop across central Nebraska and
portions of southwest Iowa overnight, but favors those potential
restrictions staying west and east of the TAF sites. That said,
a few pieces of guidance do suggest some drizzle could sneak
into OMA around 11-14Z, so will need to closely monitor trends.
Otherwise, winds will turn clockwise through the period and
generally remain under 10 kts, starting at northerly to
northeasterly and becoming southeasterly to southerly by early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

146
FXUS63 KGID 182337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog development possible overnight. Widespread or dense
  fog is not expected.

- An upper level low will bring a chance for rain back to the
  area Thursday-Friday, with the highest chances and
  accumulations across north-central Kansas. Areas north of I-80
  may not see much if any rain.

- Fantastic weather returns for the weekend with high
  temperatures well above normal (60s), full sunshine and light
  southwesterly breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Widespread cloud cover has persisted across much of the local
area this afternoon. Where clouds have remained thick,
temperatures remain in the 40s, with a few lucky spots that have
seen sunny skies climbing into the 50s.

For tonight...some uncertainty exists in the amount of low
level cloud cover that will remain across the area. Model data
indicates this lower level cloud cover may hold tough past
midnight with rather thick cirrus filling in across the upper
levels by the time it dissipates. While there will likely be
some erosion of the lower stratus on the edges, think the
overall amounts of clouds will limit radiational cooling and at
least widespread fog potential overnight. The latest HRRR (19Z)
is indicating there may be some dense fog to our west towards
daybreak Wednesday, but this has continued to trend outside our
forecast area, and given very low SREF probs for fog
development, think the potential for more dense fog locally is
low. That said, given the light and favorable wind direction,
would not be surprised if some light fog with visibilities in
the 3-5 SM range will be possible across at least parts of the
area to start the day Wednesday.

While mid/high level cloud cover will persist across the area
through much of the day Wednesday, this cloud cover will not be
as inhibitive to warming as what we have seen today - and this
combined with a return to southerly winds and brief ridging
aloft, should allow for afternoon temperatures to rebound into
the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations Wednesday
afternoon.

Thereafter...the focus will shift to the upper level low across
the desert southwest that is forecast to lift into the plains on
Thursday/Friday. As this low lifts north and east later this
week, expect clouds to once again thicken across the local area
with a chance for rain returning by Thursday evening to north
central Kansas, eventually spreading north towards the I-80
corridor Friday morning. The overall focus of this storm remains
south of the local area, and while cloud cover will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s again for the entire area to end the
week, the majority of the rainfall will be limited to north
central Kansas, with areas north of I-80 likely not receiving
much accumulation.

Behind this low, high pressure will again expand across the
plains over the upcoming weekend as another upper level low
deepens across the desert southwest. This will set-up a
fantastic late fall weekend across the local area, with well
above normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) along with light
southerly breezes and lots of sunshine.

Expect the aforementioned upper level low to scoot mainly
southeast of the local area early next week with an upper level
trough from the north eventually bringing a prolonged period of
cooler weather to the local area by Thanksgiving eve.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A fortified deck of low-level stratus continues to keep a
majority of the area underneath MVFR conditions tonight. This
deck of clouds may slowly drift north and east through the
night, possibly uncovering KEAR around 5-7z and then KGRI around
11-13z. However, models have been somewhat inconsistent on when
these clouds may do so. Beyond the low-level stratus tonight,
some fog could develop across a few places where the stratus
erodes. (mainly for areas southwest of the terminals).
Depending on if the stratus erodes sooner than projected, fog
could manage to slip up and near the terminals (20-30% chance).
VFR conditions are favored to return sometime Wednesday morning
or early afternoon. Beyond the clouds/fog, winds will stay light
through the remainder of the night, with directions turning
towards the south. Winds should not blow more than 15kts on
Wednesday with no precipitation expected.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion