Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

579
FXUS63 KOAX 132300
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
600 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming
  week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- Rain chances remain below 5% through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

I`ll do my best not to mention the ginormous ridge dominating
the central CONUS too often in this forecast discussion. Surface
analysis reveals the 1023 hPa sfc high centered over far
northern Missouri. Anti-cyclonic flow is producing southerly
wind over the forecast area.

Shallow patchy fog burned off quickly under the sunny skies this
morning. Fair weather cumulus cloud streets are developing southeast
of the Omaha metro mid-day. These cloud streets align with wind
direction so those closer to Grand Island are nearly exactly
poleward. Those by Sioux City have an easterly component and
those near Kansas have a westerly component. In other words, if
you squint, you can make out the clockwise spin of the area`s
winds.

Already temps are in the mid-80s with heat indices a couple of
degrees warmer thanks to dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70F.

.TUESDAY....

With very little appreciable change in the dewpoints and wind
overnight, expect patchy fog to develop once again Tuesday
morning. Low-lying areas and river valleys are most likely to
see visibility restrictions. The high temp is expected to climb
about three degrees higher than it will today, leaving low-90s
for most, and nearing the century mark along the SD border.

.LONGER RANGE...

The heat lingers into the weekend with highs jumping another
three degrees or so, leaving actual maximums in the middle- to
upper 90s and heat indices just another degree or two higher.
Each days heat indices are falling shy of the 105F threshold for
a heat advisory. NMB`s probabilities of hitting that threshold
(105 heat index) is highest in the Omaha metro and along the SD
border.

Probability of hitting 105 heat index in Omaha:
Friday: 8%
Saturday: 15%
Sunday: 25%
Monday: 8%

It`s worth noting that these numbers have slipped over the past
24 hours. Overnight lows are also a concern as Thursday night,
Friday night, and Saturday night all keep lows in the mid-70s.
This threshold brings a marked increase in heat related
illnesses, especially in urban areas over consecutive days.

Dry weather continues, too. With the ridge in control, the `ring
of fire` keeps convection firing mostly over the Rockies and the
Canadian border.

Are you looking for a hints as to when the heat will break? The
Canadian and GFS bring a cold front through the area on
Saturday night, leaving highs in the 80s on Sunday. The EC
brings it in a little later on Sunday, mostly affecting
Monday`s highs. This brings about a 10% chance of rain... if
you`re desperate. The NBM`s temps are probably a bit high for
Sunday and Monday, but I`ve left them unchanged for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF
sites. Southeasterly winds will decrease after 00Z this evening,
remaining at speeds of 5-10 kts overnight and into Tuesday. Some
patchy fog may develop across southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa late tonight into early Tuesday morning. While patchy MVFR
conditions could creep into the KOMA area tomorrow morning, it
appears unlikely (

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

615
FXUS63 KGID 132347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions continue through the
  weekend.

- Temperatures peak in the Friday-Sunday timeframe (highs in the
  mid to upper 90s).
 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Ridging over the central CONUS will keep us dry and seasonably
warm through midweek. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s
to low 90s, with more "excessive" heat remaining to our north.

We will gradually trend warmer for the end of the week. The peak
warmth looks to be centered on Saturday with widespread highs
in the mid to upper 90s. As of now, heat index values appear
they will remain below advisory criteria (105 degrees) in most
areas, thanks to (relatively) low humidity.

A front moves into the area Sunday into Monday. A handful of
ensemble members show potential for showers/storms to return,
but the overall model consensus continues to favor dry
conditions until the middle of next week. Through the next 10
days, global ensembles show only a 10-20% chance to see 0.50" or
more. Normal rainfall during this timeframe is around 1.15".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast to retain across the period with
only a few clouds possible to develop Tuesday afternoon. Fog is
not likely to return tonight, although a few patches of non-
dense fog could still return. Winds will lighten across the
evening and overnight hours with directions becoming more
southerly through the night. Southeast winds returning for
Tuesday will look similar to today with speeds between 10-15kts
and gusting as high as 20kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion