Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

675
FXUS63 KOAX 111024
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s, followed by
  some 90s by Thursday/Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger
  on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday
  night/Tuesday (10%) and hit and miss chances Thursday into the
  weekend (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tonight and Monday:

Water vapor imagery this evening features a familiar mid/upper
pattern, with troughing centered over the eastern third of the
CONUS, northwesterly flow across the central third, and a
shortwave trough pushing further into the Pacific Northwest.
Looking locally, the bank of clouds spurred on by warm air
advection earlier in the day has since fallen apart and
continued its move to the south. It was able to muster a few
observations of trace moisture, but has since diminished as the
small amount of instability near 700 mb has vanished, allowing
the cloud field to dissipate. A slow- moving wind shift/weak
front extends from central Nebraska into southern Iowa,
gradually pushing south while facilitating calm and variable
nighttime winds that will work to increase cooling overnight.

Things start to get more interesting tomorrow as a low-level thermal
ridge builds to the west of the area, winds turn southerly, and
high temperatures trend well above normal. Forecast soundings
depict a tall and well-mixed boundary layer during the afternoon
hours, driving down surface moisture and working downward
columnar winds that are strongest near 750 mb. Highs during the
afternoon top out in the low-to-mid 80s, driving minimum
humidity values to the upper teens to twenties while gusts reach
30 mph during the mid-to-late afternoon. We should see gusts
delay for a bit, before a jet streak to the north and its
associated surface low comes in closer proximity to the forecast
area, ramping up winds. Surprisingly, the usually more docile
NBM has the strongest winds when compared to the HRRR/RAP,
signaling that the depth of the boundary layer may limit the
ceiling for our gusts, but those speeds will still send a good
chunk of the forecast area into very high fire danger. As we
begin cooling down tomorrow evening, those winds may not let up,
carrying into the overnight hours while becoming more sporadic
as they fight a rather weak nocturnal inversion.

Tuesday and Beyond:

Cooler temperatures are on tap Tuesday, with the aforementioned
surface low bringing with it a cold front that will shift winds
northwesterly while a strong surface pressure gradient persists for
the day. This front won`t be terribly potent, only knocking highs
down a few degrees into the upper 70s to mid-80s, with stronger
winds compared to Monday. These northwesterly winds are set to hit
35-40 mph during the afternoon hours, while humidity values bottom
out in the 15-25% range. If these conditions hold in the forecast,
we`ll be gearing up for another very high to extreme fire danger day
for a larger section of the forecast area due to the stronger winds.
One thing that could disrupt fire potential to some degree is the
chances for elevated, post-frontal showers/sprinkles that are being
depicted by several of the extended CAMs tomorrow afternoon.

Fun Fact: Northeast into south-central Nebraska has been picked
on quite a bit this year with regards to increased fire danger.
For the period of Jan 1 to May 10 (initial transition season),
KLNK has had the most days with a minimum RH under 20% ever
this year, where KOFK has had the 3rd most ever.

Winds lighten up Wednesday as high pressure in the low levels
follows the front to the southeast and tracking through our neck
of the woods. Highs will reach near to just above 80 degrees,
making for a great day to be outside in the warmth. Highs shoot
up Thursday into the weekend, with a preview of summer coming in
the form of highs in the upper 80s to potentially over 90
degrees. We will also trend windier for the extended forecast,
with Thursday being the breeziest of the bunch with 45-50+ mph
on the table during the afternoon hours. This will be our
greatest fire danger day as it stands, staying consistent with
the previous forecast. Those hoping for rain will find little to
dig us out of the hole we`ve been in, with total QPF totals for
the next 7 days not expected to reach 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light
winds currently will gradually increase out of the south and
southwest later this morning. Winds will continue to increase in
speed this afternoon with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts. Scattered
high- based cumulus may also develop around 12 kft this
afternoon and evening. A strong low-level jet develops late
this evening. Area-wide LLWS can be expected as a result of this
tonight. Gusty southerly surface winds continue through the end
of this TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

367
FXUS63 KGID 111117
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of the area
  today due to gusty southwest winds and low humidity.

- Warm, dry, and oftentimes windy conditions continue through
  this week, leading to continued fire weather concerns.

- Rain chances remain limited until at least the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Fire weather remains the focus for the time being. See the fire
weather section below for more details on that.

Today, we start off a string of above-normal temperature days
with temperatures climbing into the 80s, aided by a steady
southwest winds. A cold front moves through Tuesday morning and
will shift winds to the north. But this won`t have a huge
impact on temperatures (upper 70s north of I-80 and 80s
everywhere else).

Wednesday looks to be a very pleasant day with high pressure
overhead keeps winds fairly light. Western areas may see
southerly winds increase in the afternoon as high pressure
slides to the east.

The end of the week looks to be increasingly warm. There is
some uncertainty on how warm we actually get Thursday/Friday.
The NBM seems to be on the higher end of guidance...but that has
been the trend so far this spring. Regardless of if we end up
in the upper 80s or 90s, the take- home message is that it will
be quite warm.

There is a low chance for rain/t-storms (20-30%) Thursday
night, but don`t expect this to be widespread or particularly
impactful. As mentioned in yesterday afternoon`s discussion,
we potentially could see a more active pattern (possibly with
some severe) starting this weekend and into the following week.
But keep in mind, this is climatologically our wettest portion
of the year (0.15-0.20" per day on-average), and global
ensembles still favor below-normal rain totals during this
period. Regardless, some rain is certainly better than nothing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Overall, a really nice afternoon is being observed across the
local area with seasonable temperatures near 70 degrees along
with modest breezes and partial sunshine. A few light showers or
sprinkles can be seen developing across the Sandhills this
afternoon, but with cloud bases near 8 KFT, likely little precip
is actually reaching the ground. That said, did introduce a few
diurnally driven sprinkles to the afternoon forecast update as
Ord did manage to report some light rain this past hour. This
shower activity should rapidly diminish during the early
evening hours, with clearing skies anticipated across the region
overnight.

As the winds turn southwesterly and increase across the local
area Monday, expect a return of of critical fire weather
concerns to the region as temperatures climb into the 80s and
breezes become gusty (to near 35 MPH) as the surface pressure
gradient tightens across the area. As a result, went ahead and
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning earlier
this afternoon for the areas of most concern, although fully
expect at least near-critical fire weather conditions across the
remainder of the local area during the afternoon hours. This
will be the first of several fire weather days across the area,
that will likely extend through the end of the week and
possibly into next weekend.

A weak front will cross the local area Tuesday with little
impact other than a shift in winds and some passing mid/high
level clouds. Temperatures will then really ramp for the latter
part of the week when high temperatures near (or slightly above)
90 look to be in store for the entire area. A small chance for
precip returns to the area as early as Thursday night as there
are signs of the upper level ridge across the area beginning to
weaken. Better chances for precip will likely return late in the
weekend or early next week as both the EC/GFS ensembles
indicate a more active weather pattern returning...a more
promising outlook than what was advertised 24 hours ago.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies. Southwest
winds increase today with gusts 20-25kts at times. Surface winds
remain breezy overnight, but winds aloft will also increase,
leading to LLWS into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Southwest winds are expected to gust 25-35 MPH this afternoon
(generally higher in Nebraska than in Kansas). Temperatures should
climb into the 80s, pushing humidity down to near/below 20% across.
As a result, the entire area will see near critical to critical fire
weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect in areas that are
expected to see the strongest winds and have fuels that are most
susceptible to large fire growth.

A cold front moves through on Tuesday morning, but this will not a
bring a significant cooldown. Northern areas may end up in the upper
70s to low 80s, but portions of Kansas should still reach the upper
80s. Drier air will advect into the area, resulting in another day
with humidity bottoming out in the 15-20% range. North winds gust
20-30 MPH, resulting in another day of widespread near critical to
critical fire weather.

Wednesday remains very warm and dry, but will feature a reprieve in
winds for SOME of the area. Unfortunately, western zones (near/west
of Highway 183) are still likely to see gusts around 25 MPH in the
afternoon hours.

Thursday is potentially shaping up to be the most concerning fire
weather day of the week. There is some uncertainty on how warm we
will actually get, but many areas could approach/exceed 90 degrees,
aided by very strong south winds...possibly gusting near 40 MPH in
some areas.

Friday is expected to have significantly lighter winds than
Thursday, but still remains relatively warm and dry.

The weekend also has potential for additional fire weather concerns
as system moves through the central Plains.

Precipitation chances remain fairly limited. There is a low chance
(10%) for a wetting rain Thursday night, and another slightly better
chance (30%) Saturday night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion