Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

731
FXUS63 KOAX 111850
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions continue through the week, with highs mainly
  in the 80s, although we could see a few 90s by late week.

- A cool front on Tuesday will bring gusty northwest winds,
  morning sprinkles, and afternoon dry air, leading to extreme
  fire danger in parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Fire danger will be elevated once again on Thursday with
  strong southerly winds.

- There are several thunderstorm chances, focused mainly late
  Thursday, Saturday afternoon and evening, and perhaps again on
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

On Monday afternoon, surface low pressure in southern Canada was
drawing warm air north, but is also bringing a cool front
through eastern Montana. Closer to home, a warm front extended
from near Niobrara to Nebraska City and was lifting northeast.
To the west of this front, southwesterly winds were a bit gusty
up to 25-30 mph, and temperatures a bit warmer. This warm
southwesterly flow will overspread the entire area this
afternoon with gusty winds and warm temperatures continuing
through the night as the surface low moves well to our north.
The air is quite dry today with RH dropping to 20% or lower, and
while winds are gusty, they are just less than Red Flag criteria
for today. Winds will keep tonight`s low temps around 60
degrees.

On Tuesday, the cool front currently over eastern MT will push
through all of eastern NE and western IA between sunrise and
noon. The airmass behind the front is still quite dry, and not
especially cold...particularly given ample sunshine and deep
mixing. So highs will once again be in the 70s to lower 80s. The
difference tomorrow is that these northwest winds will be
stronger, and northeast NE into west central IA could have some
gusts greater than 35 mph at times in the afternoon. This is
driven by strong, deep unidirectional wind fields, dry air, and
deep dry adiabatic lapse rates off the surface. Fuels are still
quite dry in northeast Nebraska despite some green-up, and have
thus issued a Fire Weather Watch for areas where the drier fuels
and higher end wind overlap the dry RH conditions on Tuesday.
Could also see a few sprinkles, particularly in the early morning
hours, which may also lead to localized wind enhancements.

Wednesday will be quite pleasant, with light winds early and a
breeze out of the south as the day progresses. A short
wavelength upper ridge builds overhead and shifts east on
Thursday while a short wave trough with negative tilt moves
into eastern Montana. This will bring a strong pressure gradient
and strong southerly winds probably gusting to 45 mph or so at
times on Thursday. There is a small chance of an early day
shower or storm to the east of an advancing warm front, but the
main focus will be later in the day as the short wave trough
moves out with a front/dryline. Forcing will be strong and shear
profiles impressive, but boundary layer moisture will be
lacking so overall instability profiles are fairly weak.
Regardless, late Thursday is a period to watch for a few strong
storms, but with significant uncertainty regarding convective
initiation and instability.

The intensity of the frontal passage late on Thursday plays a
significant role in hazardous weather potential and thunderstorm
potential as we go into Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Guidance is
rather variable in strength of the front in that some guidance
blasts the stable post-frontal air clear through KS/MO, while
others stall the front and lift it back north well into NE/IA by
Friday night. Wherever the front sets up, do expect moisture
pooling along it with a northerly lift over time. Substantial
instability will develop near/south of the boundary with periods
of rather favorable-for-severe-weather shear profiles (and other
periods of less impressive wind fields). All of this to say that
we`ll need to be weather-aware this weekend for severe
thunderstorm hazards, but it`s far from a guarantee and the
eventual outcome will be highly dependent on frontal positioning
and timing of moisture return within the daily
heating/convective cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A low level
jet will bring low level wind shear overnight with southwesterly
winds of 50 to 55 kts at 2000 feet AGL. Ground level winds will
be gusting to 25 kts, but with a bit of directional change and
strong speed difference, LLWS criteria are met for several
hours. Winds shift out of the northwest with gusts between 13
and 16 Z at all sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ011-012-016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

425
FXUS63 KGID 112111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical to Critical fire weather concerns across much of
  the area continue. A Red Flag warning is in effect until 10 PM
  tonight and a Fire Weather Watch is now in effect from noon
  to 9 PM Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures (10-20 degrees above normal)
  combined with a dry airmass and occasionally breezy/windy
  conditions will result in additional fire weather concerns
  through at least the end of the week.

- Rain chances remain limited this week, with more promising
  precipitation chances potentially returning over the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A noticably warmer and windy day has been realized across the
local area with many locations climbing into the mid-80s the
past few hours. With southwest winds gusting near 40 MPH at
times, critical fire weather concerns are being observed across
much of the area, and anticipate the Red Flag warning to remain
in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A weak cold front is expected to rapidly push south across the
area by Tuesday morning, bringing with it a shift in winds and
a continuation of dry air in its wake. While temperatures may
be a few degrees cooler behind this front, the main impact will
be the breezy north winds that will sweep across the local area
through the daytime hours. These breezy winds...gusting to near
35 MPH...will combine with low relative humidity values to
promote another afternoon with heightened fire weather concerns.

High pressure aloft will then push back across the local area
for Wednesday and Thursday, helping temperatures climb to near
or over 90 degrees by Thursday afternoon. At the same time
Thursday, winds will increase significantly out of the south
ahead of the next system, with gusts over 40 MPH anticipated for
the afternoon hours. As the front approaches the local area,
could see a return to some widely scattered Thunderstorm
Thursday afternoon or evening firing up near the dry line to our
west, but little if any precip is anticipated locally. While
the main upper level low is then anticipated to pass well to
our north on Friday, the associated front should cross the area
bringing with it another shift in wind direction, but likely no
noticeable cool-down.

Better chances for precip then return over the upcoming weekend
as a stronger upper level trough and front reach the area
Saturday afternoon/evening. This system will likely provide the
forcing for more active weather across the local area, with the
potential for a few severe storms not out of the question. Will
continue to monitor, but the day 6 SPC outlook brings the 15%
severe line just a few counties south of our local coverage area
and model soundings indicate plenty of instability and shear
across the local area for some organized elevated storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions anticipated through the period with LLWS being
the main concern as a front approaches and crosses the terminals
towards the tail end of the TAF period.

Expect increasing high level clouds visible on satellite to
spill across the terminals this afternoon as gusty southwesterly
winds are realized at both sites. As the aforementioned front
approaches the terminals, expect winds to initially shift and
become more southerly this evening...with strong southwesterly
winds aloft resulting in significant LLWS at both terminals.
This front will then cross the terminals around daybreak
Tuesday with a switch to northerly winds...that will gust to
around 25 KTS...aft 12/17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity values are
resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions
across the local area this afternoon and the Red Flag warning
remains in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A cold front will cross the local area Tuesday morning, but
this front will bring mainly a wind shift, with north winds
potentially gusting up to 35 mph behind this front. Given the
dry airmass, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for parts of south
central Nebraska from noon to 9 PM Tuesday, although at least
near-critical fire weather concerns are anticipated area-wide.

Wednesday remains very warm and dry, but will feature a reprieve in
winds for some of the area. Unfortunately, western zones
(near/west of Highway 183) are still likely to see gusts around
25 MPH in the afternoon hours.

Thursday is potentially shaping up to be the most concerning fire
weather day of the week. There is some uncertainty on how warm we
will actually get and how much moisture will advect northward -
impacting relative humidity values, but many areas could
approach/exceed 90 degrees, aided by very strong south winds...
possibly gusting 40 MPH+ in some areas.

Friday is expected to have significantly lighter winds than
Thursday, but still remains relatively warm and dry.

The weekend also has the potential for additional fire weather
concerns as a system moves through the central Plains.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels/Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion