Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

525
FXUS63 KOAX 061706
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected through Wednesday, with
  frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings across
  northeast Nebraska.

- A low chance (10-30%) of showers is expected Friday morning.

- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s to
  near 80 by the end of the work week, with additional rain
  chances (30-60%) Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A reinforcing shortwave trough is sinking south over the
northern Great Plains this evening. This feature within the
broader longwave trough is helping to filter additional cool
and dry air into the region. Rain chances should continue to
move well south and east out of the region tonight. Surface high
pressure builds into the area by morning, allowing for calm
winds. Temperatures are likely to fall to near freezing across
much of the area. That being said, lingering mid to high level
clouds should limit frost development for most areas outside of
areas near the South Dakota border. The cooler temperatures
continue into Wednesday afternoon with another day of
temperatures in the 50s across the area. On the bright side,
cloud cover should gradually decrease with peaks of sun by the
afternoon. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the
30s once again Thursday morning, but an increasing southwest
wind should keep frost at bay for most. Patchy fog in low-lying
areas that are sheltered from the wind may still be possible.

Temperatures are forecast to warm through the end of the work
week as modest upper-level ridging takes over. Temperatures rise
into the lower 70s on Thursday before approaching 80 by Friday.
It should be dry for much of the remainder of the work week,
but a weak disturbance during the morning on Friday may be
enough to squeeze out a low (10-30%) chance of showers. Our next
good chance of rain doesn`t take shape until the weekend.
Saturday into Sunday sees an area of low pressure take shape
south of the area as a shortwave trough moves out into the Great
Plains. We are likely to be on the northern edge of the better
moisture. That being said, shower and thunderstorm (30-60%)
chances are anticipated for much of the area. The best chance of
measurable precipitation will be across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, closer to the developing low pressure system. A
cool-down arrives behind this system on Sunday before
temperatures begin to increase again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will carry us through the TAF period, with
northwesterly winds with intermittent gusts reaching near to
just over 20 kts underneath mid-level clouds. Winds will
diminish quickly after 00z, becoming going from northwesterly to
variable for a few hours before directions all fall in line out
of the southwest overnight. Winds will remain increase slightly
in speed after 06z, with gusts returning for KLNK during the
early morning hours. towards the end of the TAF period and just
after, winds will be undergoing another direction change to be
northwesterly once again mid-afternoon Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Pearson

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

761
FXUS63 KGID 061740
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 50s today with rain possible for areas
  along/south of a Lexington-Beloit line.

- Low chance for frost tonight-Thursday morning for areas west
  of Highway 183.

- Above normal temperatures expected Thursday onwards with highs
  in the 70s and 80s. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Showers are ongoing across portions of north central Kansas this
morning. Aloft a trough over the Plains/Midwest is merging with a
low over the Southwest. As the low/trough merges today and the
resulting trough moves east across the area, rain will shift
southwest across the area, exiting far southwestern portions of
the area by the early afternoon hours. Where rain does fall
accumulations will range from a few hundredths to around 0.25".
Further north/east, a dry but seasonably cool day is expected
with highs in the mid-upper 50s and partly-mostly cloudy skies.

Cloud coverage decreases this evening, with skies becoming clear
overnight. Clear skies within this seasonably cool airmass will
allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and bring a chance for frost
to the area. There continues to be low confidence in frost potential
tonight as westerly warm air advection winds increase overnight
which will likely counteract/limit cooling and may prevent
temperatures from falling into the mid 30s (and become favorable
for frost). Areas most favored to see frost would be low-lying
portions of Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties.

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures quickly climb into the
70s on Thursday aided by westerly downslope (warming) winds.
Afternoon relative humidity values fall to 20-25% across most of the
area. While winds will be breezy in the morning, gusting 20-25 mph,
they decrease during the afternoon which limits fire weather
concerns though elevated-near critical fire weather conditions are
still possible. A weak disturbance brings scattered showers to the
area Thursday evening/night. Any accumulations from these showers
will be light (a few hundredths).

Otherwise the forecast remains on track with northwesterly flow
setting up over the area through the rest of the forecast period.
Temperatures will be near to above normal, with highs generally in
the 70s and 80s. Precipitation chances (15-40%) return this weekend,
though drier weather resumes early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper low is centered north of the Great Lakes over Canada with
an associated upper trough extending southwest. There is another
upper low centered over Southern California which is attached to the
previously mentioned upper trough. Nebraska and Kansas are under the
upper trough with rain showers moving across portions of the region.
A surface high along with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are across
the area. These conditions will keep temperatures cooler today with
highs mostly in the 50s. Showers may continue across portions of the
area tonight with the highest chances in north central Kansas
(portions of the area up to around 90% chance). Low temperatures
tonight are expected to range from the low 30s to low 40s. Frost
potential is low (20% or less) tonight despite areas reaching the
low to mid 30s due to drier air expected to be in place as well as
cloud cover.

The cooler airmass will still be in place on Wednesday with high
temperatures fairly similar to today. Rain showers will still be
possible (15% to 70% chance) on Wednesday due to increased lift from
the upper trough still being over the region. Rain showers are
expected to be out of the area by Wednesday night with clearing
skies and temperatures dropping into the 30s (mostly low to mid
30s). There will be increased (around 40% to 50%) frost and freeze
concerns for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The hindering factor
will be increased wind speeds which may result in slightly higher
temperatures and/or prevent frost from developing.

The cooler airmass will depart the area by Thursday with winds
increasing out of the southwest to west Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 70s on Thursday.
Heightened fire weather concerns are expected on Thursday with wind
gusts getting up to near/around 20 MPH and minimum humidity values
generally between 15% and 25% across the whole area. Overnight lows
will be warmer beginning Thursday night/Friday morning with
temperatures mostly in the 40s. Winds across the area will be in the
process of transitioning to the northwest Thursday night/Friday
morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest to north Friday
morning and will decrease later in the day. High temperatures are
again expected to be in the 70s. There are some concerns for fire
weather on Friday due to lingering wind gusts in the afternoon and
minimum humidity values possibly getting down to around 20% across
west/northwest portions of the area.

A cold front will move southward towards south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. In advance of the
front, temperatures are expected to warm up to the 70s and 80s.
There is some fire weather concern on Saturday with wind gusts up to
20 to 30 MPH and humidity down to around 25% across western and
southern portions of the area. If the front speeds up, then
temperatures will not be as warm. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening in
association with the cold front (15% to 50% chance). Cooler
temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures are then expected to rebound into the upper 70s to mid
80s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Wind shear
may develop and impact both KGRI and KEAR between 08z and 11z.
Confidence is low so did not include at this time. Winds will
generally range from the northwest to southwest and may become
northwesterly again by 18z Thursday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday
     for NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072>074-082>084.
KS...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday
     for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion