54°F
Updated:
4/8/2026
04:41:27am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
018 FXUS63 KOAX 080525 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and storm chances from Wednesday into early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible at times (5-15% chance on a given day). - Temperatures will alternate between seasonal norms (highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday) and well-above normal (highs 70s for the weekend.) && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Evening analysis showed a surface warm front advancing northward, stretching from roughly Columbus to Omaha to Clarinda as of 10 PM. North of the front, temperatures were in the upper 30s to around 40 and south of the front, temperatures were in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warm air advection will continue overnight as a low level jet ramps up ahead of an approaching low currently over the WY/SD border. As a result, temperatures will generally hold steady or climb into Wednesday morning. In addition, we`ll see surface winds strengthen as we go through the night, with model soundings suggesting we mix into some of that low level jet by 9-10 AM and some 35-45 mph gusts reach the surface. The low (along with a stronger cutoff low over the Canadian border) will help drag a cold front through the area during the day and given the warm air and moisture advection ahead of the front, said frontal passage could trigger a few showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests any development will likely hold off until the front has pushed southeast of Omaha and Lincoln. Instability will be pretty limited, though there could be just enough for a few stronger storms capable of hail, and with an inverted V sounding, can`t rule out some gusty winds with a collapsing storm. The front is favored to stall in or just immediately southeast of the area overnight. Moisture transport will ramp up again and could lead to additional showers and storms over southeast NE and southwest IA into Thursday morning (15-30% chance). Some shortwave energy will then slide through during the day, providing additional forcing for ascent and leading to more widespread showers and storms along the front as it inches back northward. A few pieces of guidance hint at just enough instability and shear to yield a strong to severe storm threat in far southeast NE and far southwest IA Thursday afternoon evening, though we`ll have to see how morning convection pans out and how things trend. The front will stay in the vicinity into Saturday before shooting back north through the area. As additional shortwaves slide through and moisture transport points into the area, we`ll see daily shower and storm chances. Still lots of details to be worked out, but there will be severe weather chances at times, with guidance suggesting some decent instability moving in along with NAEFS mean precipitable water values of 1.25" or more, good for the 99th+ percentile of climatology for this time of year. So potential is there for some heavier rain as well, but we`ll have to see how things pan out regarding timing/forcing. The shower and storm chances will continue into next week as a larger scale trough sets up over the western CONUS, with various bits of shortwave energy ejecting out of it and through our area before the trough itself deamplifies a bit and moves through toward the middle part of next week. As it stands, we`re seeing at least a 30-40% chance of showers and storms every day through Tuesday, and 60-80+% chances at times Thursday and during the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period, though a few patchy MVFR and IFR clouds are slow to clear out of far northeast Nebraska. Southeasterly winds have already begun to increase, with gusts up to 20-30 kts at times. LLWS (southerly to southwesterly at 50-55 kts around 2000 ft agl) will likely effect all TAF sites until 14-16Z this morning. Surface winds will continue to veer to the southwest through mid morning, and eventually become northwesterly by late morning/early afternoon, before finally weakening this evening. The northerly wind shift is expected to reach KOFK by 16Z, and make it`s way to KLNK and KOMA closer to 20Z. There remains a 15-20% chance for a few spotty showers to develop between KOMA and KLNK around 16-20Z, however confidence in any impacts at the terminals remains low. The better chance for shower and thunder storm activity will likely remain southeast of I-80 this afternoon and evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...KG
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
636 FXUS63 KGID 080551 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level disturbance pushing mainly east along the US/Canada border will push a surface front south through the region during the day on Wednesday. - Along with making for a tricky temperature forecast for Wednesday, this front will be the focus for late day/evening thunderstorm activity...some of which could be strong to marginally severe. - Current timing of the front is expected to push to the far SE corner of the forecast area by late after Wednesday...potentially push it (and storm chances) outside of the area altogether. - A more active upper level pattern developing through the rest of this week into early next week will bring the potential for periodic upper level disturbances/precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Currently... It was a dreary start to the day across the forecast area, with widespread low level stratus. This cloud cover has diminished from south to north through the day, with only far northern areas still sitting under mostly cloudy skies. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow across the local area, sitting between one shortwave in the NM/TX area and another moving into the Nrn Rockies. At the surface...the day started out with easterly winds across the area, which have turned more south- southeasterly through the day...thanks to high pressure shifting further east over the Great Lakes, while a trough axis remains over the High Plains. The plentiful cloud cover and gradual northward diminishing trend made for a difficult temperature forecast...but overall looks like highs will work out fairly well, with 40s in the far north to low 70s in the south. Wednesday... Main feature of interest in the very short-term period will be that above mentioned disturbance working its way into the Nrn Rockies. Models are in good agreement showing this system sliding generally east along the US/Canada border tonight on through Wednesday, with the center of the low roughly over the western MN/Canada border by evening. The main impact with this system will be with the accompanying surface frontal boundary...which will be pushed south through the area during the daytime hours. Really hasn`t been any notable change in the models as far as timing goes...showing the front roughly in the Tri-Cities area around 18Z, the either right along the SE corner of the forecast area or just outside by late afternoon-evening. The daytime passage makes for a tricky temperature forecast...the gradient from NW-SE could end up tighter than the low 60s-mid 70s currently forecast. This front is expected to be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm development...so its late-day location is another forecast concern. Even if the timing ends up on the slower side, it looks to be the far SE corner with chances for thunderstorms...a quicker passage means we could get missed altogether. It looks like it`ll be a close call. Thunderstorms that develop would have the potential to be on the strong-severe side...SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area continues to include most of our north central KS area. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threat. Through the overnight hours, that front looks to stall out as it loses its upper level push...but it`s not out of the question we could have linger elevated precipitation north of the front with models showing an increased low-level jet. Best chances would remain near/south of the NE/KS state line. Rest of this week into early next week... Overall not any significant changes made to the forecast, with models continuing to show the potential for a more active pattern through the mid-longer term periods. Models showing periodic shortwave disturbance moving through the Plains...both in the more zonal flow to end the work week, and the southwesterly flow expected to develop this weekend-early next week as a larger trough axis move onto and in from the West Coast. Right now the highest chances are in the Thu-Sun time frame...but hard to have a ton of confidence in timing/location of these disturbance and chances the further out in time you go. On Thursday, models show the stalled surface boundary pushing back north...with some uncertainty just how far north it gets before the next upper level disturbance/sfc cold front moves in from the NW. This boundary will again be the focus for thunderstorm development late in the day, and on into the evening/overnight hours thanks a stronger LLJ. Overall best chances for storms and any strong-severe storms looks to be across southern areas...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area continues to clip SSErn areas. Hail/wind would again be the primary threats. As far as temperatures go...Thursday is another lower-confidence forecast...with some models showing iso-sct precip around through much of the day...forecast has right around 60 in the far NE to mid 70s in the SSW. Friday is currently the overall coolest day with highs in the 50s-low 60s...with 70s returning for the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Latest UEX VAD confirms a 55-60kt southerly low level jet (LLJ) in place over the terminals tonight, which is leading to stout low level wind shear (LLWS) - despite relatively breezy conditions at the surface. The LLJ will gradually veer towards dawn, then mix out around 13-14Z. Expect at least a couple hour surge in S/SW wind gusts after sunrise (13-16Z) as mixing increases, particularly for GRI. A cold front will move through the terminals between 15-17Z, causing winds to veer to SW (and briefly weaken immediately along the front) then increase out of the NW/N. Wind speeds/gusts will gradually ease during the late afternoon and early evening. Additional wind direction change to the E is expected near the end of the valid TAF period. VFR expected through the period with only minor coverage of high clouds from time to time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Thies
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