Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

213
FXUS63 KOAX 021726
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe storms this evening. Large
  hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and a tornado or two will
  be possible.

- There`s an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms Friday
  afternoon/evening capable of strong damaging winds, large
  hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two.

- Another round of storms may be possible Saturday evening and
  night, however it will depend on how storms move through
  Friday night.

- Hot weather continues with highs in the upper 80s and low
  90s. Heat indicies remain in the mid 90s to around 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A few storms finally managed to break through the cap during the
early morning hours today, dropping a few swaths of hail, gusty
winds, and heavy rain across portions of northeast Nebraska. Cloud
cover and spotty showers helped keep temperature relatively cool,
similar to yesterday. By noon, temperatures had reached the **upper
70s and low 80s. Dewpoints in the low 70s brought heat indices into
the upper 80s and low 90s.

A remnant MCV rolled through eastern Nebraska out of Kansas this
morning. While the atmosphere was still a little too worked over
from morning convection, a few CAMS hint at the potential for storms
to redevelop late this afternoon along a lingering outflow boundary
in far southeast Nebraska. While shear will be relatively weak,
bountiful instability could lead to the production of large hail and
damaging winds.

A better chance for strong to severe storms will move through late
this evening and into the overnight hours. Multiple models hint at
the development of an MCS over eastern South Dakota that moves
southeast across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight. This
initial storm may then be followed by an amalgamation of cells
moving out of central Nebraska. The initial storms that develop this
evening would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds,
with a small chance for a tornado or two. Heavy rain could also lead
to isolated instances of flooding if storms end up training over the
same locations.

Friday...

Once again, convection is expected to linger through the morning
hours Friday, bringing subtle relief from the heat. Temperatures
will likely once again top out in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday
afternoon. Adding in the humidity, it will feel more like the mid
90s to low 100s.

While the forecast may once again become muddled by storm
interactions Thursday night/Friday morning, Machine Learning and CAM
guidance strongly support additional storm development Friday
evening. Convection looks to blossom along another outflow boundary
in the vicinity of northeast Nebraska. Large hail, heavy rain, and
perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible. However, the greatest
threat looks to be strong damaging winds as the storms eventually
meld together into an MCS and surge southeast through early Saturday
morning.

Saturday (Independence Day)...

Friday night convection will be the deciding factor in whether or
not we can shoot off our own fireworks on Saturday, or if we`ll be
forced to watch Mother Nature`s show. Some models depict storms
surging well south of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday
morning, clearing the path for a hot but dry 4th. Other solutions
depict Friday night`s storms giving us a glancing blow as they skirt
along the eastern fringes of the forecast area. This would leave us
under an unspoiled atmosphere ripe for thunderstorm development
Saturday afternoon and evening. Overall trends appear to be leaning
toward the first option, pushing storms just south of the forecast
area. While I wouldn`t cancel fireworks plans just yet, it would be
a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast if you have holiday
plans.

Hydration (with water) will be key for any 4th of July party goers.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, with heat
indices in the upper 90s up to 100. These temperatures could creep
up a little higher if skies clear out behind the early morning
storms.

Sunday and Beyond...

Off and on storm chances look to continue through Sunday and into
early next week. Unfortunately, the heat also isn`t ending any time
soon. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low
90s, with lows only falling to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight.
Additionally, CPC outlooks continue to highlight much of the country
leaning above normal for temperatures through mid-July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period.
Winds are expected to become breezy out of the south this
afternoon. Another round of storms is expected to develop this
evening and overnight. While there remains some uncertainty, the
best chance for storms looks to be at KOFK from 03-07Z and KOMA
from 07-09Z. A few storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Spotty
weak showers and storms could linger through Friday morning,
before another round of severe storms develops Friday evening
and overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

607
FXUS63 KGID 022017
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
317 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms may impact (around a 30% chance)
  portions of the area this evening into tonight.

- The severe storm risk increases Friday evening into Friday
  night (up to enhanced). Large hail and damaging winds are the
  main threats.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Saturday
  (4th of July) with the highest risk across southwestern
  portions of the forecast area.

- There is around a 30% to 60% chance of showers and storms across
  the whole area Saturday evening. Chances increase further south
  (north central Kansas and far southern NE).

- There is still some uncertainty in the placement of storms
  Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over most of the western part of the country and
also includes the northern and central Plains. An upper ridge is
over most of the eastern part of the country. High temperatures
today are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 60s to low/mid 70s. The
showers from this morning have moved off to the east. Storms are
expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening in western
Kansas and may move northeastward into north central Kansas and
south central Nebraska this evening. The 12z HRRR is showing storms
weakening as they move into the forecast area later this evening
(around 10 or 11 PM). The 12z NAM12 is showing storms staying away
from the area this evening through most of the overnight period. The
12z NAMNST is showing storms moving in from the west around 7 or 8
PM and progressing eastward until midnight or 1 AM. The 12z GFS is
showing storms developing by/around 7 PM and expanding in coverage
by 10 PM. CAPE values by this evening will be around 3,500 to 5,000+
J/kg, and 0 to 6 km wind shear will be around 25 to 30 knots. Mid-
level lapse rates will generally be around 7 to 8 degrees C/km.
There is some uncertainty on when, and if, storms will impact the
area this evening into tonight. If they do, they could become strong
to severe given the above mentioned conditions. The vast majority of
the forecast area is in either a marginal (level 1 out of 5) or a
slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather per the SPC Day 1
outlook. Hail up to around quarter to half dollar size and wind
gusts up to around 60 MPH are possible.

Friday and Friday night...

Temperatures on Friday are expected to warm up a little from those
today with highs in the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. Low
temperatures Friday night will be in the low 60s to low 70s. The
whole forecast area is in either a marginal, slight, or enhanced
(level 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms Friday into Friday night.
By evening, CAPE values of around 4,000 to 5,000+ are expected
areawide. 0 to 6 km wind shear values of around 30 to 40 knots, and
mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8.5 degrees C/km are expected. A
shortwave (or multiple shortwaves) is/are expected to move over/near
the area which will aid in atmospheric lift. These conditions will
likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Large hail up to around
golf ball size, wind gusts up to around 70 MPH, and an isolated
tornado will be possible. The area of greatest risk will generally
be along and north of I-80. The timing of these storms is expected
around 6 PM to 3 AM.

Saturday and Saturday night (4th of July)...

The forecast models are trending further south with the rain and
storms for Saturday but are still not quite in agreement where to
place the precipitation. The area with the highest chances (around
60%) of showers and storms Saturday evening is north central Kansas
into far southern Nebraska. Areas north of the Tri-Cities are least
likely to experience rain and storms (around a 30% to 40% chance).
The Tri-Cities area is probably the area of greatest uncertainty
(around a 40% to 60% chance). A lot of what happens Saturday will
depend on what happens on Friday. The timing and placement of rain
and storms will also depend on the timing and placement of a weak
cold front which will move into the area on Saturday. Given fairly
high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse rates, strong to severe storms may
develop. The highest risk would be across north central Kansas and
far southern Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range
from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Low temperatures Saturday night
will be in the low to upper 60s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will then be on a slight warming
trend through Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures during this time will generally be in the 60s to low
70s. There are low chances (15% to around 20%) of showers and
thunderstorms from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon.
Severe potential on these storms is unknown at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms may impact the terminals around 01z to 06z but
there is very low confidence so did not include for now. There
is better confidence of storms between 12z and 16z Friday. Wind
shear is expected between 03z and 08z. Winds may become gusty
(with gusts up to 25 knots) out of the south this afternoon.
Otherwise, winds will generally range from the southeast to
southwest between 5 and 15 knots.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion