Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

063
FXUS63 KOAX 071735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
  remainder of the afternoon, with brief downpours, lightning,
  and funnel cloud or two all possible.

- Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the
  week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that
  could thwart extreme heat.

- Heat could be disrupted by stronger storms that will try to
  develop and move through the area Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today and Tonight:

GOES satellite imagery this afternoon shows textured landscape of
clouds draped across the Central and Northern Plains, spurred on by
a weak cutoff low and it`s associated height falls general
convergence across the area. Zooming out a bit further, longwave
troughing continues across the Pacific Northwest with a cold front
continuing to exist up and down the Northern High Plains. Sounding
profiles and SPC objective fields locally depict a generally
uncapped environment, with pockets of deeper convection pulsing up
and down therein while the potential/duration of any storm is
limited by weak effective shear. SPC mesoanalysis also shows
some increased values of non-supercell tornado parameter due to
the ambient vorticity, sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates,
and overall stretching potential of that vorticity. No
tornadoes are expected to occur, but we do anticipate reports of
funnels underneath some of the strengthening pulse convection
over the course of the afternoon. Aside from the spurious
convection, lighter rain is also expected to occur in a more
widespread nature before they dissipate/shift off to the
northeast along with the mid/upper closed low. Temperatures will
only warm slightly to their peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
making it a low point from which we will jump forward into a
hotter forecast for the remainder of the week. Skies overnight
will trend clearer as subsidence sets in behind the low, with
the back edge of the clouds trying to usher in areas of fog,
primarily across central and eastern Nebraska into Monday
morning.

Monday through Wednesday:

The forecast hits a bit of a turning point Monday, as the mid/upper
jet streak near the High Plains advances farther east -- not
necessarily to induce weather directly over the area, but moreso to
develop showers and storms to the west that move into the forecast
area. As for Monday in particular, the aforementioned frontal
boundary front the High Plains the day previous will push into north-
central Nebraska into central South Dakota. The southern reaches of
the front will bend farther to the south and west, connecting to a
local surface low near the NE/KS/CO border. CAMs are generally on
board with developing convection closer to the surface low and
where the greatest instability will lie Monday afternoon, but
they do also hint at storms trying to fire along the front in
northeast Nebraska after 6 PM, but with sufficient, but less
instability and effective shear. Those storms serve as the
initial severe threat for the evening, with an eventual MCS
trying to push into the area late/overnight Monday that would
bring 50-60 mph winds through after midnight.

Aside from the storms, heat will also be of importance to the
forecast, where areas to the southeast of the incoming cold front
are forecast to hit high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Similar temperatures are forecast going through the middle of the
work week, seeing a potential bump into the mid-to-upper 90s and
near 100 degrees in far northeast Nebraska. The continuation of
any heat will be conditional to potential storm and shower
activity that is forecast through the week. We`re not expecting
a washout by any means, but a poorly-timed MCS that powers
through the area would kill high temperatures for the day,
leaving us a bit cautious with regards to issuing any heat
headlines. The current forecast does carry areas of "major" heat
risk Tuesday and Wednesday, before reducing to "moderate/minor"
again Thursday onward.

Storm chances also continue to be of concern with the mid/upper
features nudging a bit closer to the area Tuesday, and
through/to the east of area Wednesday. Confidence in
location/timing with these storm chances remain low, as the
Monday evening/overnight convection will play a large role in
defining what areas are allowed to recover, while outflows
remain and serve as focal points for the next day`s convection.
With the abundance of instability and increasing mid/upper flow,
severe storms are on the board both days.

Thursday and Beyond:

Temperatures trend downwards Thursday through Saturday, as the base
of the upper trough continues its push east of the area while the
remaining mid/upper flow flattens. Shortwaves continue to move
through the flow though this period, keeping low-end chances for
rain in the forecast, but most will be thankful for the cooldown
incoming back to the low-to-mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are in place this afternoon with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dotting the radar
screen. These showers and storms are expected to last through
the next 2-3 hours, with the western edge clearing KLNK first
before shifting even farther east to avoid KOMA after 21z.
Southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon with occasional gusts near 20 kts, while MVFR
ceilings become increasingly hard to come by as we head into the
evening. Overnight, winds will quiet down, clouds will try and
clear until some fog/low stratus formation occurs after 06z. Fog
chances are highest near KOFK into central Nebraska, with KLNK
closer to the eastern edge of it. Any fog or lower ceilings
(IFR or lower) should dissipate by 14z tomorrow morning,
returning VFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

388
FXUS63 KGID 071758
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today under more cloud cover. Isolated shower/weak
  storm possible, mainly E of Hwy 281.

- Marginal Risks (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Monday and
  Tuesday, mainly later in the day and into the overnight.
  Damaging wind gusts look to be the primary threat.

- Hot Tuesday and Wednesday with highs topping out in the 90s to
  lower 100s. Heat indices may peak near 105F in spots.

- More seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the forecast
  along with off and on rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For today...and upper level low (clearly seen on WV imagery
spinning in S KS) will traverse the Central Plains from SW to
NE...becoming a bit negatively tilted as it does so. Have
already seen some isolated to scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms develop ahead of the low in E KS into SE NE. Some
of this activity may try to rotate into at least E portions of
the forecast area (i.e. Hwy 81 corridor) throughout the morning.
Additional isolated development will also be possible with the
daytime heating this afternoon. With the expected upper low
track roughly along the I-35 corridor, think most of the
isolated activity will remain along/E of Hwy 281. Lapse rates
and shear will be weak, so not expecting any severe weather.
However, can`t rule out some non-supercell funnel clouds given
the ambient atmospheric vorticity and decent 0-3km CAPE, but
think even most of this should favor areas closer to the
Missouri River and center of the upper low. Any isolated cells
will also be capable of heavy downpours as the upper low pulls
deep tropical air northward...but fortunately, the cells should
be small and isolated enough to keep these downpours fairly
brief for any one location. With abundant cloud cover today
highs should be a few degrees cooler - generally in the 80s.

Expect dry and quiet conditions tonight under shortwave ridging
and subsidence following the departure of the upper low.

Brunt of the daytime hours Monday should also be dry, though
can`t completely rule out some isolated elevated convection
skirting far W/NW zones in the morning. Also...some guidance
develops isolated sfc-based thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and early evening along a weak cool front advancing
from the NW...OR a subtle warm front/instability gradient
lifting northward across central Nebraska. The afternoon
development is VERY uncertain and conditional - owing to weak
forcing/support aloft and model differences in placement of
potential boundaries. Monday afternoon represents a "low
probability, but potentially high impact" type of setup given
magnitude of expected instability combined with steep mid level
lapse rates and moderate shear. Most likely won`t get
development at all, but if there is, would expect sig hail.

More probable scenario for our next round of severe convection
potential would be for an MCS to roll in from the W late Monday
evening and into the overnight. As mentioned above...strong
instability will already be in place, and most models develop a
healthy LLJ during the late evening. SPC has placed a Slight
Risk over the central High Plains where afternoon development is
most likely amidst favorable upslope flow and possible weak
upper disturbance. Same CAMs then grow this activity upscale
over NE Colorado and W Nebraska during the early evening.
Assuming that indeed happens, have no reason to believe it
wouldn`t be able to move right on into our area around/after
sunset with primarily a damaging wind threat. As such, would
not be surprised to see an upgrade to a Slight Risk in the Day 2
update to account for this scenario, if model trends persist.
Monday has some signs of being a potentially "sneaky" severe
weather day, depending on how some details line up...so keep an
eye out for later forecast updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026


Short Term...Today through Sunday.

Following some late night thunderstorms across a few mainly northern
and eastern portions of the area, observed spots of minor flooding
and full/overflowing stream/river beds prompt the need to continue
the Areal Flood warnings across a few of our southeastern Nebraska
counties (Hamilton, York, Clay, Filmore, Nuckolls and Thayer) until
at least tonight. For more information regarding the ongoing
flooding, please refer to the hydrology section below.

Today we find ourselves underneath split flow as broad ridging
covers the Northern Plains with a shortwave trough centered across
the Southern Plains. The disturbance down south will be expected to
take a northeastward track up to the Midwest through the first part
of the new week. Outer precipitation bands from this system may
slide by a few southeastern portions of the area this evening and
tonight. A few weak (non-severe) storms will likely pop up between 4-
10PM across a few portions of north central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska (areas mainly south and east of the Tri-Citoes). As the
coverage of precipitation is expected to be more of a "hit or miss"
and highly scattered rather than widespread in coverage, PoPs for
any given location remain on the weaker side (10-30% for the
southeastern third of the area, mainly locations southeast of a line
from Geneva, NE to Red Cloud, NE to Plainville, KS).

For Sunday, a few scattered showers and weak storms will disperse
across the eastern portion of the area (mainly areas east of HWY-
281) with up to 30-50% PoPs hovering across the eastern fringes of
the area through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, temperatures
tonight will cool down to the low to mid 60s with light winds
remaining out of the southeast. Overcast skies filling in across the
overnight hours will begin to clear out across the later morning to
later afternoon hours Sunday (clouds making up the outer cirrus
shield of the southeast passing disturbance). Highs for sunday,
despite the partial cloud coverage, should be able to return to the
low to mid 80s Sunday afternoon.


Long Term...Monday and Beyond

A northwest located trough will gradually push out the Northern
Plains ridge, later retuning the mid to upper level flow to
southwesterlies by Monday. A quick passing shortwave disturbance on
Monday may throw a few more scattered storms into the area (25-50%).
The potential of severe weather could return to a limited (southwest)
portion of the area Monday evening/night as increasing instability
from warming temperatures could add some extra intensity to a few
storms. The rest of the forecast period (through next Saturday)
continues to bring at least a limited afternoon to nighttime pop up
storm chance to at least a portion of the area. These daily chances
come from increasing uncertainty on how the upper-level pattern will
unfold (when a few minor disturbances embedded within the
approaching trough will pass through the Region).

Temperatures will be heating up into the middle of the week as highs
transition from the 80s on Monday to the 90s and low 100s on Tuesday
and Wednesday (Heat indices possibly as high as 105 degrees). This
warm up will best be assisted by clearing skies and steady southerly
winds winding up Tuesday afternoon. A frontal passage on Wednesday
should place a cap on the warming trend, though the 80s to low 90s
look to be possible each day for the of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions recently returning to both sites will last until
around 9z when fog potentially works its way into the area.
Between 9-14z, visibility reductions will be possible. The
worst visibilities (as low as 1/2 to 2 miles) may be possible
between 10-13z. Though there is no mention of -TSRA in the
current TAF, a limited 20% chance lies in the forecast Monday
morning (increasing potential later in the day).

Winds today will remain out of the south-southeast blowing
between 10-15kts through the afternoon hours. Light winds,
becoming variable late tonight, will likely lead into Monday
morning.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Flood water across several of our counties will be slow to
recede within the hardest hit areas. The flooding in some areas
is expected to persist through tonight and possibly into Sunday
morning.

The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight
include:
West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham)
Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County)
Lincoln Creek (Hamilton and York Counties)
School Creek downstream of Sutton
Turkey Creek in Fillmore County
Little and Big Sandy Creek (Corner of Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls,
Thayer Counties)

Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be
isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump
HYDROLOGY...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion