Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

055
FXUS63 KOAX 032253
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs reach the low 90s with some wildfire smoke in the skies.

- Best chance for showers and storms tonight will be in far northeast
  Nebraska along the South Dakota border (60-80% chance).

- More showers and storms expected Tuesday (30-60% chance) and
  again Wednesday (60-80%) chance. While the severe threat is
  low, storms could produce heavy rainfall.

- Warming trend begins Thursday into the weekend with highs
  reaching the low 90s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis shows an H5 ridge in place over much of
the central and southwest CONUS. To our northwest, a potent
shortwave over Montana has induced a sfc low now over central South
Dakota. Ahead of the low, southerly flow has allowed temperatures to
warm to the 80s, while winds remain gusty at 20 to 25 mph.

Highs today reach the low 90s under smokey skies. Some broad H7 warm
advection ahead of the main front may lead to some widely scattered
showers in far northeast Nebraska this afternoon, but low level dry
air should limit anything from reaching the sfc so have left
forecast dry.

By late this afternoon and evening, should see mid level kinematic
forcing increase as the wave approaches the area. Convergence along
the front should help fire off some scattered showers and storms
across central Nebraska this evening. CAM guidance tries to bring
this activity into eastern Nebraska after 03z, but it largely
weakens as instability and 0-6 km bulk shear appear marginal. Post
frontal convection could redevelop after 06z and clip far northeast
Nebraska where instability is bit more abundant (1500 J/kg) along
with shear. PoPs remain at 20 to 30% for most of northeast Nebraska
tonight, while 60 to 80% PoPs are confined to the South
Dakota/Nebraska border.

Tuesday will see more widely scattered showers and storms as another
H5 wave and the front lingers (30-60% chance). While 0-6 km bulk
shear appears abundant at 35 to even 50 kts behind the front,
forecast soundings show skinny CAPE profiles with instability of
around 1,000 J/kg and poor H7-H5 lapse rates of 5 to 6 deg C/km. The
instability also doesn`t appear aligned with the best 0-6 km bulk
shear which will help limit the overall potential for strong storms.
However, could see some heavy rain potential as PWAT values remain
well above the 90th percentile. Highs Tuesday will range from the
low 70s behind the front to the low 80s ahead of it.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Another H5 shortwave will round the base of the main longwave
Wednesday, traversing the area. Continued mid-level forcing for
ascent should lead to another round of showers and storms Wednesday
(60-80%). Hires guidance shows the potential for training storms
over the area, which with the continued ripe environment for
efficient rainfall (PWATs of 1.9 inches, WCD of 4000m), this may
lead to a heavy rainfall threat. The WPC currently has portions of
southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa highlighted for a slight risk
of excessive rainfall. By the end of Wednesday, storm total QPF will
range from a half inch to a little over an inch primarily along the
Platte River area into southwest Iowa. Cooler temperatures are
expected with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Leading up to Saturday, should see the southwestern CONUS H5 ridge
amplify and push farther eastward toward the Plains. This will
result in generally dry conditions with a warming temperature trend.
Expect highs to warm back to the low 90s by Sunday with a few areas
in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa seeing heat indices in the
low 100s. Saturday could bring a slight chance (15%) for some
showers and storms as an H5 shortwave ejects towards the Plains area
from the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions hold through the TAF period. Gusty southerly
winds will weaken over the next few hours with a front moving
south across our area leading to winds shifting from southerly
to northerly around 06-10Z. Along and behind the front we could
see some showers and storms. These will be scattered in nature
so difficult to predict if and/or when they will impact any
terminals. There is a window from 08-12Z when KOFK could see
showers/storms (20% chance). There will be another window for
all the terminals from 18Z-00Z with a 40% chance of showers and
storms.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

812
FXUS63 KGID 032325
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity looks to push east
  into the area this evening/tonight. Not out of the question
  that a few storms early-mid evening could be on the strong to
  marginally severe side...mainly across far WNW portions of the
  area. Gusts around 60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the
  main threats.

- Tuesday and Wednesday continue to have chances for at least
  scattered showers/storms...severe weather is not anticipated.
  Sitting on the north side of the main surface cold front, more
  clouds/precip chances, will bring cooler highs for both
  days...with 70s for most locations.

- Forecast for Thursday on through next weekend is drier...with
  highs climbing back well into the 90s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Been a warmer, gusty start to the work week across the entire
forecast area...and while the majority are sitting with
little/no cloud cover, satellite imagery showing a fairly
thick batch of wildfire smoke passing through, keeping skies
hazy. This smoke has remain in the upper levels, with no area
automated sites showing any reductions in visibility, a trend
that should continue the rest of the day. Looking aloft, data
showing high pressure centered over AZ/NM...with a dampened
ridge axis extending northeastward through the Central Plains
toward the Great Lakes. Troughing/low pressure along the East
Coast is keeping this ridging from sliding east...while low
pressure over north-central Canada and southward extending
troughing into the NNWrn CONUS is what has diminished the ridge
strength. Satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance
making its way east across the Nrn Rockies...which will aid in
storm development with time this afternoon. At the surface, the
gusty south-southeasterly winds are being driven by a tightened
pressure gradient in place...set up between high pressure over
much of the Midwest and an approaching cold front. This front
currently sits from the southern NE panhandle up into central
SD...with winds across the forecast area gusting around 25-30
MPH. Temps are a touch warmer...with 3PM obs sitting in the mid
80s to mid 90s.

At least scattered activity is expected to continue developing
along that surface frontal boundary the rest of this
afternoon...with the main question going into this
evening/tonight continuing to lie with how much of an impact
there is on our forecast area. Models continue to the better
potential being several hours off yet, and kept an mention of
chances out through 00Z (some models say it could be closer to
02-03Z). Through the overnight hours...there still some
differences with just how much coverage there is, but general
idea is that things end up staying on the more scattered side.
Lift is aided by an increasing southwesterly LLJ, but the better
upper level forcing remains off to our north. Storm chances
have other things working against there being greater coverage
with time...loss of daytime heating. models showing warm mid-
level temps/capping remaining in place, and the further east
things push, should push out of the area of better instability.
Still not out of the question that a few storms early on could
be on the strong to marginally severe side...and our WNW
portions remain in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Gusts near
60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the primary hazards.
Didn`t get cute with PoPs through the overnight hours...pretty
much anywhere could see at least an isolated shower/storm, so
kept the 20 percent chances going CWA-wide.

The main surface cold front will continue sinking south with
time overnight...by 12Z Tuesday, models are in pretty good
agreement showing the front draped across the southeastern
quarter or so of the forecast area. May end up with a gradient
in lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the far NW to
around 70 in the SE.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall, no notable changes in the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday...with continued precipitation chances and cooler
temperatures still expected. Models remain in generally good
agreement in the broader-scale. showing the upper level pattern
remaining zonal across the Central Plains. Although on the
weaker side, models showing the potential for enough lift
lingering around to keep chances for at least spotty
precipitation around for much of the day. Still some differences
and uncertainty with the overall coverage...and whether there
is a bit stronger of a wave/more precip coverage as we get more
into the evening/overnight hours into Wed AM. NBM have some
widespread, higher PoPs between 06-18Z Wed (60-70 percent)...the
models supporting that timing show the better potential mainly
across portions of south central NE. Still looking like the
potential for severe weather is low, better instability should
be becoming more focused to our south. With the increased cloud
cover, precipitation chances, and continued northeasterly winds
behind the cold front...high temperatures are forecast to range
from the low 70s-low 80s on Tuesday to low-mid 70s for
Wednesday.

Thursday and on...

For the end of this week on into the start of next week...again
not much as far as notable changes go in the forecast. Models
continue to show the upper level pattern across the region in
varying degrees of west-northwesterly flow. The main ridge tries
to build back north over the western CONUS...but additional
larger-scale disturbances mainly moving across Canada prevent it
from amplifying too much. Precipitation chances Thursday
through the weekend are spotty at best...and confidence in those
chances are certainly not high at this point. After the cooler
temps Tue-Wed, temperatures look to bounce back well into the
90s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front will bring a shift in winds at the terminals
overnight along with the chance for a few thunderstorms this
evening followed by some light rain showers and breezy north
winds during the daytime hours Tuesday.

Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the next several hours
ahead of this cold front...with gusty southerly winds relaxing
by 04/01-04/02Z. Light and variable winds will then precede the
cold front, with northerly winds settling in behind the front by
around 04/08Z. The best shot for a -TSRA will be between
04/03-04/08Z...with MVFR stratus then possibly filling in behind
the front along with a few light rain showers at times through
04/15Z. CIGS should improve thereafter, with gusty north winds
to around 22-25 KTS during the afternoon hours along with a VCSH
or -SHRA continuing throughout the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion