Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

339
FXUS63 KOAX 291106
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
606 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat is expected to continue through at least Monday,
  with heat index values reaching 105 to 110 degrees in some
  areas. Overnight minimum heat index values remain in the upper
  70s.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Tuesday
  evening, especially across northeast Nebraska.

- Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with
  occasional evening and overnight storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Actual afternoon temperatures, peaking in the mid- to upper
90s today, were enough to set a new record at Valley (95F POR
since 1994) but only enough to tie the warmest temperature of
the year so far at Eppley set back on *March* 21st at 96F!

Heat indices ended up peaking near forecast maximums today,
leaving it the hottest day of the year in that regard. 100F to
110F heat indices were common with Eppley holding a heat index
of 102 at 9pm.

Skies remain clear overnight and through mid-day Monday,
offering no reason to think the powerful June sun won`t leave
Monday another scorcher.

Overnight temperatures will keep homes with no A/C very
difficult to keep cool, for that reason the heat advisory and
extreme heat warning continuing overnight for all but the
northwestern portion of the area where afternoon temperatures
and heat indices are expected to slip below advisory criteria
tomorrow. Regardless, it`ll be hot everywhere. Lower humidity in
the northwest will keep maximum heat indices peaking closer to
100F on Monday while 105-110 will be common elsewhere. At least
we`ll have the benefit of breezy southerly winds once more.
Despite feeling like a blast furnace, the breeze does make it
easier to cool via sweating. Expect maximum gusts of 24-38 mph.

The upper pattern sees a mid-level trough spinning over
Montana tonight and another developing in Colorado with an
attendant sfc low. A cold front is draped from Denver to
Bismarck and the warm front snaking east of the complex has
pushed well into South Dakota. As this mid-level low pushes east
along the international border on Monday, it`ll drag the cold
front farther east and pushing the heat axis deeper into Iowa.
That front is expected to push into this CWA in the evening
hours from the west.

Ahead of the front, the heat and humidity will lead to a very
unstable airmass (4 kJ/kg), but capping will be an issue as will
a lack of forcing. Guidance is pretty consistent on waiting to
initiate convection along the front at around 00Z, although
guidance is often an hour behind the real world. Initial
supercells are possible but as the sun sets and the nocturnal
jet increases wind speeds relatively parallel to the boundary,
updraft/cold pool interference would quickly lead to upscale
growth and an increasing wind damaging potential. The SPC has
the northern portion of the area under a slight risk of severe
weather (2 of 5). PoPs

The cold front`s settling into the area will help calm winds
and push dewpoints lower Monday night, but will offer little
relief from the heat.

.TUESDAY...

It`ll still be toasty with highs in the 90s and max heat indices
still peaking near 100-105 for areas along and south of the
Platte River and I-880. The heat headlines will continue into
Tuesday evening. The front will retreat northwest, but remains
in the vicinity with a very unstable airmass forecast to develop
east of it. There`s plenty of uncertainty, but severe storms
could be triggered in such an environment. We`re currently
progged at a marginal threat (1 of 5) of severe weather.

.LONGER RANGE...

Finding ourselves in a possible `ring of fire` along the edge of
a heat dome leaves the area open to the threat of daily
convection. Machine-learning forecasts based on the EC and GFS
keep the daily threat of severe weather in the forecast area at
10-20% through Saturday. Expect occasional convective outlooks.

For this reason, the heat headlines (advisory/warning) have yet
to be extended. Convective chances and a front in the area
introduce too many variables for much certainty in temp
forecasts. While there may be an occasional break in the heat
due to unexpected cloud cover, rain, or thunderstorm outflow,
the overall pattern will remain conducive to hot summer
temperatures.

Temps will begin to climb again by the end of the week when
western CONUS ridging is expected to redevelop.

Saturday night brings a good chance (35-50%) of precip as the
remnants of tonight`s western CONUS trof finally ejects east.
Things will cool behind that trof. At least temporarily.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies through this afternoon.
Storm chances this evening, mainly for northeast Nebraska.
Chances around 20-30% from 00Z-04Z, 40-60% from 04Z to 10Z.
Didn`t include any TSRA in TAFs due to uncertainty in storm
timing and location, but KOFK is the most likely site to see
storms.

Starting off the day with low-level wind shear today with winds
to 45 to 53kt starting around 1800ft. This should diminish as
winds aloft weaken and winds at the surface increase. We`ll see
windy conditions today with southerly winds gusting 30 to 35 kt.
Winds decrease this evening, but low-level wind shear expected
to return at KOMA and KLNK starting around 04Z tonight.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-034-044-045-
     050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ043-055.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

027
FXUS63 KGID 290735
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
235 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s to low 100s today with heat index values in
  the 90s to 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 9pm for
  eastern portions of the area.

- Isolated storms possible during the evening-overnight hours.
  If storms form they could become severe capable of producing
  damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Hot and humid weather continues into the weekend with highs
  and heat index values in the upper 80s to upper 90s.

- Off and on thunderstorm chances continue each day, primarily
  during the evening-overnight hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

It`s a warm morning across the forecast area with temperatures
currently in the upper 70s to low 80s, around their climatological
daily "average" temperature (average of the high and low). These
warm temperatures are providing little relief from the heat of
Sunday. Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow as troughing sits
over the western U.S. Under this southwesterly flow highs today soar
into the 90s to low 100s. Dewpoints today range from the mid 50s
(west) to around 70 degrees mainly along/east of Highway 81. Hot
temperatures combined with dewpoints results in heat index values in
the 90s to 100s across the area. The highest heat index values will
be across far eastern portions of the area (along/east of a line
from Beloit-Osceola).  A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these
areas until 9pm.

Focus then turns to the potential for thunderstorms during the
evening-overnight hours. A front will stretch southwest to northeast
across central portions of the area this evening. Capping aloft and
overall weak forcing should limit storm development along the front.
Still, there could be enough convergence along the front to support
isolated thunderstorm development. If storms do form, CAPE values of
3000-4000 J/Kg combined with 30-40kts of shear would support strong-
severe storms. The primary concern with these storms would be
damaging wind gusts and large hail. After sunset, the strengthening
Low Level Jet could also support the development of scattered-
isolated storms across northern portions of the area. These storms
likewise would carry a threat for damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Storm chances would exit the area by the early morning hours
(2-3am).

Tuesday will be slightly cooler as the ridge over the Midwest shifts
further east. Still, temperatures remain hot and humid across the
area with highs climbing into the 90s. Heat index values will top
out in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, unpleasant but shy of h
eat headline criteria. Scattered thunderstorm chances return Tuesday
evening as storms develop over western KS/eastern CO and move into
southwestern portions of the area. CAPE and shear would support
these storms being strong-severe.

Otherwise the forecast remains generally on track with hot and humid
weather persisting into the weekend. Highs and heat index values in
the 90s are expected each day. Off and on thunderstorm chances
continue, primarily during the evening/overnight hours. If these
storms linger into the morning hours, storms/cloud coverage could
result in a slightly cooler day though confidence in this scenario
is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026


Warm and humid air has made its push into the area today following
the passage of a warm front this morning. Temperatures in the 90s to
low 100s today with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s have helped
inflate heat index values to as high as 100-107 across far eastern
portions of the area (places with the higher humidity and under the
heat advisory). In terms of heat relief tonight for areas south and
east of the Tri-Cities, temperatures will not be expected to drop
below the upper 70s to low 80s (warmest lows across a few Kansas
locations or Nebraska areas near and east of HWY-81).

The main change this forecast cycle has been the decision to locally
extend the furthest eastern row of counties within today`s heat
advisory (Mitchell to Clay to Polk counties) until 9PM Monday. This
decision comes as heat indices may once again near/exceeded 105
degrees Monday afternoon for these locations with limited overnight
heat relief expected tonight into Monday morning. The latest forecast
now highlights similar temperatures returning (possibly a degree or
two lower than today) with lingering moisture content (upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints) that will keep conditions fairly similar on
Monday. The one saving grace that could provide some heat relief may
come from the presence of gusty southerly winds or even a few
clouds building in during the later afternoon hours.

The southerly winds today will continue to increase this evening and
overnight as wind speeds are expected to peak near 20-25MPH with
gusts as high as 30-35+. These breezy condition should stick around
for much of the night. Gusty winds lingering into the day Monday
will later settle for much of the central to northwestern portions
of the area. Far southern and eastern portions of the area,
however, may still retain periods of gusty winds during the
afternoon and evening hours (up to 25-35MPH gusts possible).
Thankfully, the areas expected to have the greatest heat and
humidity impacts will also be some of the same areas that likely
receive these gusty winds or even some scattered cloud coverage
later on.

Confidence regarding the storm potential for Monday afternoon to
night has began to narrow some. A few storms, some of which may
become severe, could form as a cold front passes through from west
to east. Though a few storms could possibly fire off anywhere along
this front (The NAMNEST model is more aggressive with storm coverage
than some of the other models), the general consciences places the
better storm potential across primarily the central (Tri-Citries
area) as well as eastern to northern portions of the area (locations
with the higher humidity and convective environment). Given the hot
temperatures, MUCAPE values of up to 2,000-4,000J/kg would be
available for storms to take advantage of as well as some 35-55kts
of bulk shear in regards to increased support from the mid-to-upper
level jet. A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be in place across
most places (besides a few west/northwest portions of the area) with
the greatest severe threat mainly falling between 5PM and 3AM Monday
night. The main severe hazard with the stronger storms will be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60MPH. Hail up to the size of
quarters may still be possible, though the hail threat will not be
as significant.

Taking a step back to observe the synoptic environment, we
observe a Northern Rockies center trough off to our northwest
with a Southeast U.S. ridge resting southeast of the area. These
two features will keep the mid-to-upper level jet nearby (just
northwest of the local area) for now. This wave pattern will
soon look to resemble a wetter signal with several shortwave
disturbances, embedded within the jet, possible to pop out of
the flow. These off-and-on disturbances could stir up a few
sporadic thunderstorm activity. The forecast for much of the
rest of the week now features at least minor PoPs across some
portion of the forecast area every afternoon to night. Besides
the occasional thunderstorm chances, the temperature forecast
continues to keep highs in the upper 80s and 90s each day. Later
on in the week (Friday and Saturday) a few southern Nebraska
and Kansas locations may see highs near the tipple digits once
more.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Overall, there is high confidence in VFR conditions through the
period. There is only a low (20-30%) chance for thunderstorms
late in the period (03-06Z Tuesday).

Surface winds remain gusty tonight, but stronger winds aloft
will continue to lead to LLWS concerns through sunrise on
Monday. Another round of LLWS is possible Monday night as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-064-076-
     077-086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion