58°F
Updated:
4/10/2026
5:31:23pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
963 FXUS63 KOAX 101854 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 10 to 14% chance for some sprinkles across the forecast area this afternoon. Otherwise most locations stay dry with highs reaching the mid 50s to low 60s. - Active pattern continues with continued shower and storm chances late tonight into Saturday morning (60-80%). More development is possible later in the afternoon (20-40% chance), and some of these storms may become severe. - More showers and storms expected for Sunday and the start of next week with a continued threat for severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 18z RAP objective analysis at H7 shows some weak warm air advection rounding the backside of a 318dam high. This broad ascent has led to some weak showers developing over eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa early this afternoon. BUFKIT soundings show dry air from H7 to H9 limiting precipitation from reaching the sfc, so dry conditions should largely prevail for most locations with only a 10 to 14% chance for some isolated sprinkles. Highs today warm to the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight cool to the 40s. As we head into tonight, should see sfc winds turn more southeasterly as the 1030mb sfc high pushes east toward the Great Lakes. H8 warm advection ensues as the baroclinic zone moves northward back into the area. The broad ascent combined with a push of low level theta-e advection will result in showers and storms developing late tonight into Saturday morning. Latest CAM guidance shows storms firing off just to our southwest by 06z, then becoming more numerous and widespread after 09z early Saturday morning. While 0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 35 kts is expected, the marginal instability of 200 to 500 j/kg could lead to a storm with some brief hail or wind. PoPs remain at 60 to 80% for this forecast update for much of the area. A brief lull in activity is expected by the late morning hours with only a few lingering showers. Highs Saturday warm to the upper 60s to low 70s with gusty southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. By the late afternoon, model guidance hints at an H5 shortwave ejecting from western Kansas toward the area as the sfc boundary lifts northward, helping bring in warm, moist air with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. While some forcing from the feature may try to generate scattered showers and storms, CAM guidance does not appear overly optimistic with this. Forecast soundings for Saturday afternoon show some signs of weak capping from near H8 to the sfc for most of the forecast area aside from southeast Nebraska were that cap may be eroded. A few of the 12z CAMs try to develop convective cells over the southern half of the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and into the evening, but they struggle to sustain themselves, likely tied to the lack of strong forcing to trigger convection. If forcing becomes stronger and convection is able to break through any warm layer, instability of 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg coupled with shear of 30-35 kts could lead to a conditional threat for severe convection. Along with large hail and strong winds, a tornado threat could develop if convection can become sfc based given the good low level curvature seen in hodographs. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast for the entire area late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Given the conditional risk of afternoon convection, have decided to cut back on NBM PoPs of 70 to 90% and lowered them to a 20 to 40% chance areawide after 19z. Lows Saturday night remain warm in the upper 50s to low 60s. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may persist on Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding if more storms will redevelop this day. Models still show dome differences in regards to the timing of an H5 disturbance that tracks through the region. Latest parameterized models and some of the CAMs like the NAMNest suggest some threat for precipitation across the area. With instability lingering in the area, a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out. A marginal risk of severe weather remains in place for much of the forecast area Sunday. Highs warm to the upper 70s to mid 80s up in far northeast Nebraska as H8 warm air advection takes shape. Southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 mph may lead to areas of very high fire danger, primarily in far northeast Nebraska toward the South Dakota border where relative humidity drops to the teens to 25%, but this will be largely dependent on any more wetting rainfall we receive. Monday and Tuesday will see the continued eastward track of a potent H5 trof from the southwest US. The southwest flow over much of the Northern Plains will allow continued shortwaves to eject into the area resulting in continued shower and thunderstorm chances. Severe weather remains probable across much of the forecast area on Monday, and primarily the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday (15% chance). Those with outdoor plans for early next week will want to keep an eye on the forecast and watch for any potential changes. PoP chances continue into Thursday (20-40% chance). Temperatures remain warm for much of the upcoming week with highs in the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 VFR conditions are observed at terminals this afternoon. A low level cloud deck at 1,500-3,000 feet will pass over KOMA and KOFK this afternoon, but coverage should remain scattered. After 07z, will see ceilings deteriorate to MVFR with scattered rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Have include mentions of -TSRA for this issuance at KLNK given higher confidence for occurrence at this terminal as well as visibility drops. Ceilings deteriorate to IFR late in the TAF period with continued -SHRA and MVFR visibilities. Winds from the northeast to start the period will turn southeasterly late this afternoon and evening and remain under 12 kts. 20 to 25 kt gusty southeast winds overspread terminals late in the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Castillo
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
752 FXUS63 KGID 101943 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 243 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered non-severe storms will develop tonight between 11PM and 6AM (40-65% chance). Small hail up to penny size could be possible within a few of the stronger storms. - A few areas of fog may develop across parts of the area Saturday morning. Visibilities as low as 1 mile will be possible with potentially a handful of locations dropping below 1 mile at times. - More limited coverage of storms will be possible Saturday (30-50%) and for far southeast portions of the area Sunday (10-30%). A few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out (Marginal Severe Weather Outlook). - Temperatures will warm back up to the 70s and 80s Saturday through the middle of next week. - Another chance of scattered thunderstorms returns Tuesday (20-40% chance) and Wednesday (20-30% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Tonight/Saturday... Colder air today filling in behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage continues to stick around for one more day with temperatures in the 50s and dropping only down to the 40s overnight tonight. A broad 1028mb surface high pressure center passing off to the northeast will help bend the steady 10-15MPH easterly/northeasterly winds gusting up to 20-25MPH to the southeast tonight and to a southerly direction for Saturday. Though there is a 40-65% chance for (non-severe) thunderstorms tonight, the overall coverage of meaningful precipitation amounts will likely not spread more than 0.1-0.5" of rainfall across 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area. Storm development tonight will be dependent on the presence of a low-level jet tonight. The best timeframe for storm activity will be between 11PM to 6AM. Though the chance for severe storms remain unlikely based on the limited MU CAPE (500- 1,000J), low-to-mid level lapse rates of 6-8 C/km with a modest 25- 40kts of bulk shear could still support a few stronger storms that may produce small hail up to the size of pennies. Developing fog behind the storms overnight will also be possible as light to steady upslope flow mixes dewpoints close to their saturation point. Visibilities may fall to as low as 1 mile with a handful of locations potentially seeing visibilities drop below one mile at times across the morning hours. Gustier conditions Saturday from southerly winds blowing between 20 to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH, will be paired with even warmer temperatures. Though the cloud coverage is expected to maintain through the day, the warm air advecting winds will assist in helping bump highs back up into the 70s. At the surface, a low materializing across the Northern Rockies will center the Central Plains under its warm sector side. Aloft, a weak shortwave trough will bring by some mid-level vorticity advection, increasing vertical instability (500-1,500 of MU CAPE). Though storms will not be a guarantee (20-50% chance for more isolated activity), the conditions would still be favorable to help give any storm that does pop up potentially some strong to severe characteristics (hail up to the size of quarters or wind gusts near 60 MPH). As result, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather covers the full area. Sunday and Beyond... Upper-level troughing out west will creep closer to the Central U.S. across the beginning of next week. This slow moving feature will set up a wave train of shortwave disturbances that will pass overtop of the area mainly between Saturday and Wednesday. As result from this feature, precipitation chances will return to the area Sunday (10- 30%), Tuesday (20-40%) and Wednesday (20-30%). Storm chances Sunday will be concentrated towards far eastern to southeastern portions of areas (mainly areas east of wherever the dryline sets up that afternoon). A few storms that develop may potentially become strong to severe (Marginal severe weather outlook for locations mainly east of HWY-281). Another potential for scattered storms could come Tuesday evening into Wednesday, although a lot of uncertainty still remains for this particular event. Model solutions between the GFS and ECMWF (long range global deterministic models) begin to diverge Tuesday as another surface cyclone is expected to develop across the Central U.S. Uncertainty with the system`s track, timing and frontal placements will ultimately determine when and where storms may end up develop. Otherwise, the continuation of southerly winds each day through Thursday (besides Wednesday) will help highs maintain in the mid 70s to 80s through much of the week. Near-critical fire weather conditions look to return to at least a portion of the area each afternoon Sunday through next Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible tonight between 5-10z with storms in the vicinity as early as 4z and as late as 12z. In addition, broken to overcast cloud bases through the day will drop to MVFR classifications around 2z for KEAR and 4z for KGRI, IFR classifications around 6z for KEAR and 8z for KGRI & LIFR classifications around 8z for KEAR and 10z for KGRI. Visibilities may fall around 8z for KEAR and 10z for KGRI from potential fog. Visibility through Saturday morning may fall as low as 1-2miles between 11-16z. Conditions for ceilings and visibilities will improve between 14-18z. Winds starting from the east this afternoon will gradually turn southward for Saturday. Winds this afternoon and tonight will generally start between 10-15kts with occasional gusts as high as 20-25kts possible. Stronger winds are expected to ramp up between 16-18z with speeds nearing 20kts and gusting as high as 30kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump
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