58°F
Updated:
5/22/2026
11:38:28pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
814 FXUS63 KOAX 230339 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1039 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend begins this weekend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday. - Widely scattered showers and storms are possible through the holiday weekend, with a strong storm or two possible Sunday. Dry periods will outnumber wet ones. - Periodic precipitation chances continue Tuesday through the remainder of the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Saturday through Monday... A mid-level low pivoting across the northern Plains this evening pushed a cold front eastward through the area. A broken line of thunderstorms developed along the front, with a few stronger embedded cores. Storms will continue moving east and should exit the area shortly after midnight. Surface high pressure briefly slides across the region Saturday as mid-level ridging builds into the central and southern Plains, bringing a warming trend through the holiday weekend. Highs are expected to reach the mid 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, and upper 80s to low 90s Monday. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, though low-end, near-daily shower and storm chances remain possible as weak waves pass through the region. The first chance arrives Saturday evening, mainly across northeast Nebraska where a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Weak shear and modest instability should limit storm organization. Chances increase slightly Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak surface trough moves near the NE/SD border. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk shear near 30 kts may support a strong storm or two, with the best chances across northeast NE into southwest IA. Damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph) and hail (up to 1 inch) are the primary hazards. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this area. Additional widely scattered showers or storms will be possible Monday as temperatures warm (likely to convective temperatures) and instability increases, though weak shear and limited forcing should keep the chance limited. Overall, dry periods will greatly outweigh wet ones through the holiday weekend, but those with outdoor plans should stay weather aware. Tuesday and Beyond... A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move onshore across the western CONUS early next week and slowly deepen as it shifts eastward. Moisture return will increase ahead of this system, with highs generally in the low 80s through much of the work week. Periodic precipitation chances return late Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the workweek as several weak disturbances move through the region. PoPs generally range from 20-50%, though timing and locations will likely be refined as guidance better resolves each wave. No particular day stands out for severe weather at this time, as instability appears modest and stronger shear/forcing look displaces from the area. GEFS and EPS machine- learning guidance also keep the better severe probabilities focused to our south and west. A shift in disturbance tracks could change this, but for now, the severe weather signal remains limited. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms and MVFR conditions have formed across far eastern Nebraska this evening, likely impacting KOMA before clearing from west to east by 23/01-02Z. Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period as ceilings gradually break up and improve through the evening. A few southwesterly gusts up to 18 kts may occur before winds calm (under 12 kts) into the evening and become more westerly. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
684 FXUS63 KGID 222349 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 649 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to isolated storms are possible (15-25%) Saturday and Sunday night across portions of south central Nebraska. A few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Near to above normal temperatures are expected Sunday Onwards with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. - Highs in the 80s on Memorial day with breezy winds and a low (15-20%) chance for storms Monday afternoon/evening. - Scattered, off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night onwards though the details are uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 This afternoon and Tonight A cold front currently located near Highway 81 continues to make its way across the forecast area this afternoon. A few lingering showers continue near-just behind the front. The axis of greatest instability shifting east of the area with the cold front makes it doubtful that these showers/storms will do much before exiting the area over the next couple of hours. Clearing skies this evening and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s overnight. Saturday... Highs on Saturday climb into the 70s as a passing shortwave trough moves into the Plains. Partly cloudy skies and light winds make for an overall pleasant day on Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will aid the development of a few scattered thunderstorms over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon-evening. While inhibition increases around sunset and results in these storms weakening, it remains plausible that a couple of these storms linger just long enough to make it into far northwestern portions of the area before dissipating Saturday night. Sunday and Memorial Day... Southwesterly flow aloft transitions to a more west-northwesterly flow pattern on Sunday. At the surface, highs climb into the 80s aided by breezy southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Scattered shower/thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon-evening along the surface trough/dryline in west-central Nebraska. CAPE and shear would be sufficient for storms to become strong to marginally severe. These storms look to mainly impact northwestern portions of the area. Any storm would gradually dissipate after sunset as convective inhibition increases. Warmth continues on Memorial Day as temperatures climb into the 80s during the afternoon. Another breezy day is expected with southerly winds gusting 20-30mph. Similar to this weekend, a few scattered thunderstorms may develop across portions of Nebraska. Details on timing of any storm will become clearer as we get closer (likely afternoon/evening). Tuesday Onwards... Troughing moves into the western U.S. on Tuesday and subsequently stalls out, placing the area under southwesterly flow-weak ridging. Near to above normal temperatures are expected, with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This pattern also results in scattered, off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night onwards. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Very high confidence in VFR ceiling, and "fairly high" confidence in VFR visibility throughout the period. There is also fairly high confidence in precipitation-free weather...as any shower/weak thunderstorm potential late Saturday afternoon currently appears to remain roughly 40+ miles north and/or west of KGRI/KEAR through the valid period. The only caveat to VFR(visibility-wise) is a small chance (perhaps 20% chance) of light fog forming very late tonight/early Sat AM...but this probability appears too low to acknowledge in TAFs at this time. As for ceiling, much of late tonight into Saturday daytime will likely feature scattered-to- broken mid-level clouds, with any ceiling mainly at-or-above 10K ft. AGL. Winds will be a minimal issue, with sustained speeds commonly at-or-below 10KT, and overall a light/variable direction prevailing most of tonight into the first part of Saturday daytime. Right away these first few hours this evening direction will prevail westerly, with direction then more southerly late Saturday morning-afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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