Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

578
FXUS63 KOAX 041134
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
534 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle are expected this
  morning with the highest potential for slick roads near and
  north of Interstate 80. Snow totals are expected to remain
  under 0.5" with a glaze of ice.

- Warmer temperatures arrive Thursday into next week, with highs
  generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A few spots could hit the
  60s Thursday, with more widespread 60s for Monday.

- The prolonged stretch of warmer weather will likely lead to
  river ice breakup and increase the potential for ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Early morning analysis showed the well-advertised shortwave
trough moving through the area with light radar returns starting
to edge into northeast NE as of 3 AM. Model soundings continue
to indicate perhaps a brief period of snow as precip first
starts, but we quickly lose saturation aloft and therefore, in-
cloud ice, indicating a transition to freezing drizzle with the
lowest 1-2 km remaining saturated. Upstream observations seem to
support this with a few light snow reports and several other
mist/fog/unknown precip reports with reduced visibility and even
some ice accumulation. While various pieces of short term
guidance differ significantly in their simulated reflectivity
and QPF fields (HRRR/RAP have been the most aggressive), nearly
all of them show the aforementioned low level saturation (some
more consistent than others) with some decent lift, so they all
seem to show at least potential for some patchy freezing
drizzle.

One thing to keep an eye on is that surface temperatures in
some locations (e.g. Norfolk, Albion, Columbus, Neligh) have
remained near or above freezing with the low level clouds
keeping us a bit warmer. As a result, ice accumulation may
remain confined to elevated and untreated surfaces in some
locations, though they should cool off a few degrees as precip
starts. Precip should continue to push southeast through the
morning, largely remaining north of I-80 through 8 AM and then
pushing south of the area by late morning/early afternoon. Some
consideration was given to a Winter Weather Advisory, but given
the aforementioned surface temperature, low level saturation
questions (i.e. potential patchiness of the icing), and ice
accumulations remaining around 0.01-0.02" elected to hold off
for now. Regardless, there will likely be some slick spots out
there this morning. Once precip does exit, temperatures should
climb above freezing in most locations, with highs in the mid to
upper 30s, though lingering clouds could keep a few places a
little cooler.

For Thursday, we`ll warm up significantly as upper level
ridging over the western CONUS will start to edge eastward into
the area with surface westerly to northwesterly downslope flow
helping to get temperatures into the 50s for most and even a few
lower 60s edging into far western portions of the area. A dry
cold front will swing through Friday morning, though
temperatures won`t fall too much, with Friday highs in the mid
40s to mid 50s. We`ll stay warm through the weekend into next
week with daily highs in the 40s and 50s and Monday even
trending toward more widespread 60s. These warmer temperatures
will likely lead to river ice melting and breaking up,
increasing our risk of ice jams. In addition, several of these
days could be a little breezy, with gusts of 20-30 mph, so may
need to keep an eye on potential for slightly increased fire
danger if we stay dry, though no one day looks particularly
concerning at this point, as RH values should stay above 30-40%.

Guidance points toward the middle of next week as our next
precip chances with the ridge flattening out and some more
shortwaves sliding through. However, there remains lots of
spread in guidance on timing and track of these systems so
forecast confidence remains low, with consensus saying Wednesday
currently has the highest chances (20-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Expect MVFR ceilings to linger into this afternoon with patchy
freezing drizzle and light snow pushing through, occasionally
bringing MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings. Still some
questions on how persistent the precipitation will be at a given
location. Guidance suggests it`ll be more on and off through
the morning and accumulations will remain very light (under 1/2"
inch of snow, glaze of ice). Precip should exit to the south by
late morning/early afternoon with MVFR ceilings scattering out
and mid-level clouds moving in this evening. Winds will remain
northwesterly through the day, with gusts around 20 kts at
times, mainly at OFK. They`ll lighten up and become more
southwesterly to southerly this evening and overnight with some
low level wind shear at OFK toward the end of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

920
FXUS63 KGID 041126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of snow/freezing drizzle moves south-southeast across
  the area this morning. Localized accumulations of a light
  glaze of ice and/or a dusting of snow are possible.

- Well above normal temperatures arrive Thursday and continue
  into next week. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 60s.

- Dry weather expected Thursday through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 251 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Low stratus currently resides across the eastern half of the
forecast area, with temperatures in the low 30s under stratus.
To the west, under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have sunk
into the 20s. Aloft, a trough is deepening over the
Plains/Midwest with a lobe of energy embedded within the broader
troughing diving towards the area. This will push a band of
precipitation towards the area. Forecast soundings and surface
temperatures near to below freezing favor a mix of snow and
freezing drizzle, which will slide south- southeast across the
area throughout the morning hours. Widespread accumulations do
not appear likely, but localized areas could see a light glaze
of ice and/or a dusting of snow which could result in slick
spots on roads and surfaces. Snow/Freezing drizzle is expected
to exit south/southeastern portions of the area by the early
afternoon hours. Skies clear this afternoon, becoming mostly
clear this evening. Highs today will range from the upper 30s in
the east where stratus lingers the longest, to the upper 40s in
the west.

Otherwise the warm up through the rest of the forecast period
remains on track, with highs soaring into the upper 50s to mid 60s
on Thursday. If highs on Thursday were to overperform the current
forecast, Grand Island and Hastings could approach records (GRI/HSI
forecast 61 degrees. GRI record 65, HSI record 66). Highs in the 50s
and 60s continue through early next week. The next chance for
precipitation will arrive mid-week next week though the details
remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Today through Wednesday night...

A broad upper trough covers the eastern 2/3rds of the country with
an upper ridge over the West Coast. Northerly winds are across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A surface
high is centered over Minnesota and extends southward to Texas. The
coldest temperatures across the area are generally along and east of
Highway 81 with the warmest temperatures along and west of Highway
183. Areas of rain may impact western portions of the forecast area
this afternoon into this evening. Another round of precipitation is
expected to move in from the north Wednesday morning. The
precipitation will likely mostly be in the form of snow early
Wednesday morning then transition to freezing drizzle/freezing rain
later in the morning as the dendritic grow zone becomes dry
with a saturated layer between 0 and -10 degrees C. The
precipitation is expected to end by early to mid Wednesday
afternoon. Little to no snow accumulation is expected (less than
1 inch). Some light ice accumulation is possible (up to 0.01
inches). Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to
around 50 degrees with northerly winds. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will be similar to the previous night.

Thursday through Monday...

The upper trough will be further east on Thursday with the upper
ridge over the Rocky Mountains. Northwesterly winds will be across
the area on Thursday with temperatures expected to warm up into the
50s and 60s. The warm-up will continue into Thursday night with lows
in the 30s. The upper ridge will begin to move into the Plains on
Friday with a surface high extending from the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest to Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty with high
temperatures on Friday due to boundary placement, but expect highs
to generally be in the 50s. The region will be on the backside of
the surface high Friday night with temperatures cooling into the 20s
across most of the area. Temperatures will warm up into the mid 50s
to mid 60s on Saturday as winds will mostly be out of the south.
Similar temperatures are expected on Sunday. A further warm up is
expected on Monday as winds increase out of the southwest. High
temperatures on Monday are expected to mostly be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR stratus moves into KGRI/KEAR over the next couple of hours,
and is expected to persist into the afternoon. Precipitation is
expected to remain outside of the forecast area but a brief -SN
or -FZDZ is possible through the mid-late morning hours, but
confidence is not high enough to include a Prob30 group. There
remains some uncertainty how quickly stratus clears this
afternoon, but have opted to lean to a slower
clearing/transition to VFR. Partly cloudy high level clouds are
expected through the overnight hours.

Northwest winds increase to around 10-15kts this morning, and
persisting through the afternoon. Winds become light and
variable during the evening-overnight hours before shifting to
the west-southwest late in the TAF period. Additionally, late in
the TAF period LLWS is favored to develop due to stronger winds
aloft.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion