Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

943
FXUS63 KOAX 091035
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
535 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern continues with several chances of
  showers and thunderstorms into next week.

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday
  afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the
  main threats with any severe thunderstorms that develop.

- Severe thunderstorms may again be possible this weekend, but
  confidence is low at this time. Another round of severe storms
  is anticipated by Monday across far southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A split flow pattern is noted in upper air analysis with a compact
upper-low over southern Ontario and Lake Superior with a broad
trough over Baja. With the compact low to our north, a cold front
pushed through the region Wednesday afternoon. A few showers and
thunderstorms occurred along and just behind this front, but only
light accumulations occurred over portions of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. This activity should gradually weaken and dissipate
tonight. Temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s by Thursday
morning with the cooler airmass behind the aforementioned cold
front.

In response to the southern stream trough and a digging trough over
the northern Rockies, the cold front will quickly stall and begin to
retreat back north as a warm front heading into Thursday afternoon.
At this time, forecast guidance brings the warm front north to
approximately the Nebraska-Kansas border, but there remains
disagreement on the exact placement of the front. A few forecast
models bring the warm front closer to the I-80 corridor. Where the
front ends up will determine the expected temperatures. Areas north
of the front hold in the upper 50s to low 60s, while 70s are likely
south of the front. A few stray showers or a thunderstorm is
possible during the late morning and early afternoon north of the
front, but chances are relatively low compared to late afternoon and
evening. By late afternoon and evening, the northern Rockies trough
will begin to support more robust thunderstorm development along and
north of the warm front. Thunderstorms are almost certain for much
of east and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. With these
thunderstorms there is a threat of severe weather. At this time
there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), mainly for large hail and
damaging winds, though a tornado can`t be ruled out along and south
of the warm front. With that said, most storms are likely to be sub-
severe with limited instability with northern extent. Thunderstorms
will begin to move out of the area as the warm front becomes a cold
front once again and sags south of the region.

A brief lull is anticipated on Friday with cooler temperatures in
place behind the front. This quickly changes heading into the
weekend as the split flow pattern evolves into a larger western
CONUS trough. This development should support return flow by
Saturday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A few
leading shortwaves may drive thunderstorm development and perhaps
severe weather, but there remains some uncertainty on these specific
details. Saturday sees showers and thunderstorms during the morning
hours as the warm front lifts north through the region, with at
least some threat of afternoon redevelopment. The better chance of
thunderstorms is forecast for Sunday as the trough draws closer to
the region along with a slow moving front. Gusty south winds are
likely as moisture streams north. Thunderstorms continue to be in
the forecast heading into Monday as the trough finally begins to
eject east across the Plains. Severe weather is currently
anticipated for at least far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
on Monday.

Beyond this, shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast, but a cooler, more stable airmass behind a cold front
should provide a lull in severe weather through the middle of next
week. That said, return flow redevelops towards the end of next
week, signaling more potential for active weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Scattered showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder are
expected to develop between 12-20Z today. This afternoon, a
better chance for a line of storms will develop along a warm
front draped from near KLNK through KOMA. Currently, the best
chance for thunder will be from 00-05Z at KLNK and 17-21Z at
KOMA. A second round of storms could reach KOMA from 00-05Z this
evening. The timing of these storms will depend on the location
of the warm front. If it drifts farther north, storms may
linger longer. However if it shifts south, they could miss the
terminals entirely. The latest runs have trended slightly later
with the development of stronger storms and a touch farther
south than I-80. Lower ceilings ranging from MVFR to IFR will
likely be coincident with the storms and drift southeast with
the warm front, effecting KLNK from 00-08Z and KOMA from 21-06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

800
FXUS63 KGID 091150
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly along
  and south of the KS/NE state line. Large hail/damaging wind
  are the primary hazards.

- Cooler temperatures for Friday and trending drier.

- Active SW upper flow develops across the region this weekend
  into next week...with the potential for periodic shortwave
  disturbances and chances for precipitation. Still considerable
  uncertainty regarding timing and location of greatest rain
  chances...along with the potential for strong-severe storms.

- Temperatures warm up nicely into the 70s and 80s for the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Zonal upper flow and moderate low to mid level warm air
advection could support some isolated to scattered elevated
showers and weak storms this morning...though confidence on
exact location and coverage is pretty low. Based on recent
satellite data and short term model trends...think our N zones
and KS zones have the "best" chances to see some development
over the next few hours, but even still, these are only about
20-40% type chances. The passage of a weak disturbance and
veering low level jet could also support an eastward
translation or focus for new development (Hwy 81?) around/after
sunrise...and this is somewhat depicted in recent HRRR runs.
Again...anything that develops will be elevated in nature and
lacking moisture, with any rain amounts through early afternoon
~0.10", or less.

Majority of afternoon hours look to be fairly quiet. A
stationary front (currently along I-70 corridor) is forecast to
slowly lift northward today and settle roughly along the KS/NE
state line by late afternoon. This warm front, along with a
reinforcing cold front gradually sinking southward through Neb.
will lead to a wide range in temperatures from upper 70s/low 80s
S, to upper 50s/lower 60s in our N/NE zones.

No major changes to what is discussed below regarding the
potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this
afternoon and (especially) this evening along the warm front.
SPC has maintained a Slight Risk outlook area for today where
there is the greatest model agreement in storm development.
Lacking moisture (dew points higher than yesterday, but still
only in the upper 40s to maybe lower 50s) will be a limiting
factor to what otherwise could be a more significant severe
threat given presence of strong warm front and limited capping.
Nonetheless, large hail (generally quarter to half dollar size)
and damaging wind gusts (~60 MPH) will be possible. Any
sustained supercell structure could increase the peak hail
potential up to around golf ball size.

One of the bigger changes with this package was to back off on
magnitude and northern extent of PoPs tonight and Friday. The
sfc front is forecast to sink well S of the area and allow for
axis of sfc high pressure to nose in from the N/NE...and this
will coincide with shortwave ridge aloft. Thus, think majority
of the area will now be dry for most, if not all, of the daytime
hours Friday. Have lowered PoPs significantly for Neb zones and
somewhat so in KS, and definitely still some potential for
further decreases in later forecast updates.

Plenty far out still to discuss the weekend rain chances in
much detail...but the general trend from the past couple of days
seems to be continuing. Unfortunately, that means lower rain
chances for much needed moisture. In fact, latest EC is now
almost completely dry from Saturday night all the way until
Tuesday as the primary axis of unsettled weather runs from the
southern Plains into the Lower MO Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Thursday...

Have precipitation chances lingering into the morning hours on
Thursday, gradually shifting to the east along the edge of the
LLJ...again the coverage of PoPs may be too broad with coverage
looking to be on the isolated-scattered side, but models vary
with just when/where activity develops/shifts.

Focus through the rest of the day turns to the next upper level
disturbance...models showing a broader shortwave trough sliding
into the Nrn Rockies tonight, then further SE onto the
Nrn/Central Plains during the day on Thursday. Ahead of this
disturbance, deepening sfc low pressure over eastern CO will
help to pull the frontal boundary which stalls out near I-70
tonight back north...it again being the focus for thunderstorm
development later in the afternoon. Models are showing this warm
front not making a ton of northward progress, as this
approaching upper level trough is bringing along a reinforcing
cold front. From roughly mid-afternoon on, and moreso after 00Z
once the LLJ ramps up, thunderstorm chances ramp back up...with
models in decent agreement showing the best potential again
across SSE portions of the forecast area. Along/south of this
frontal boundary, models are showing the potential for dewpoints
to climb into the low 50s...aiding in better instability
(MUCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg are possible), with deeper
layer shear again around 30-40kts. Concern remains for some
storms to be strong-severe, mainly south of HWY 6-north central
KS and along/east of HWY 281...and SPC upgraded this area to a
Slight Risk (2 out of 5)...the Marginal Risk area (1 out of 5)
is spread further north/west. Large hail/winds remain the
primary threats. Through the overnight hours, models show the
wave moving through and the LLJ veering more by around
midnight...so while the potential remains for some activity to
linger on through the overnight hours...confidence is not overly
high there is going to be much of it (plenty of differences
between models still).

Friday on into early next week...

Thursday`s reinforcing cold front looks to bring cooler Friday,
remaining the coolest overall day of this 7-day period. We`ll
see how models trend in the coming days...but recent runs
suggest the current forecast precip chances may be too
high/widespread, potentially set up between Thursday`s departing
system to the east and some shortwave upper level ridging to
the west ahead of a larger scale system digging along the West
Coast. Clouds/lingering precip will also play a role in highs on
Friday...so their trends will matter, but current forecast
calls for highs in the mid 50s-near 60, so near-normal for this
time of year.

As we get into the weekend and the first half of the new work
week...models continue to show the potential for a more active
pattern/precipitation chances. In the upper levels, low pressure
digging south along the West Coast and eventually further inland
will be bringing more southwesterly flow to the central
CONUS...with periodic shortwave disturbances ejected out ahead
bringing precipitation chances to the forecast area. While each
day Saturday through Tuesday has chances in the forecast...not
expecting a multi-day washout...just hard to have a ton of
confidence in the exact timing/location details, especially the
further out in time you go. It`s not out of the question that
some of these chances may get greatly reduced depending on their
track, putting the better potential outside the forecast area.
These disturbances will bring along the potential for strong-
severe storms...at this point models suggest that better chances
will focus south and east of our area, but again we`ll see how
things trend the next few days.

As far as temperatures go, highs are forecast to climb back into the
70s-80s for the weekend and Monday...with the potential for a
cooler push Tue-Wed with highs back in the 50s-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: An isolated shower/weak storm may pop-up at just about
any time through around midday, but not expecting much in the
way of impact in terms of CIGs or VSBYs. Should see a mix of sun
and mid to high clouds this afternoon. Winds will be from the NE
to E today, becoming a bit breezy this morning. Confidence: Med.

Tonight: Main aviation concern will be potential for stratus to
move in. Have introduced some MVFR CIGs beginning around 03-04Z
for both sites. Some guidance doesn`t totally rule out some
lowering to IFR, mainly at GRI, but confidence not high enough
to go that low that far out. Winds will be out of the NE at
around 10-15kt. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion