Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

873
FXUS63 KOAX 011800
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. The hottest days
  look to be Friday and Saturday with heat indices up to 100-105.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight,
  particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and
  locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms
  that develop.

- Additional severe storms possible Thursday morning, Thursday
  evening, and Friday evening.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of
  rain and storms waits for the evening of the 4th of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today and Tonight...

Morning warm air advection gave a boost to showers and storms across
northeast Nebraska, causing them to outperform model expectations.
Showers and storms decreased in coverage as support from a
passing shortwave shifts east this afternoon. Southerly flow
along the backside of the ridge dominating the eastern CONUS
will bring another day of heat to the region. Highs this
afternoon are expected to top out in the upper 80s. Warm temps
combined with humidity, enhanced by local corn sweat, will drive
heat indicies towards 100. Thankfully, lingering cloud cover
from the morning convection will at least bring some relief to
the area, likely preventing us from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria again this afternoon.

Another round of strong to severe storms looks to develop over
northern Iowa this evening, potentially snaking back across
northeast Nebraska. Plenty of instability will be available,
although shear will be somewhat weak at only 20-30 kts throughout
the layer. A few storms could be capable of producing large hail and
strong winds through the evening and overnight hours, as highlighted
by SPC`s Marginal Risk across the northwestern half of the CWA.

Thursday...

Another round of storms, associated with a potential MCV moving out
of Kansas, is expected to develop Thursday morning around 8-9 AM.
While overall shear may be somewhat limited, enhancement from the
MCV could lead to a few severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

Cloud cover associated with morning showers and storms will
once again mitigate some of the heat effects Thursday afternoon.
Highs will likely top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, with
heat indices remaining at or below 100.

Thursday evening, additional severe storms could impact the
area in 2 different ways. The first and more likely scenario, if
you believe the latest CAMs, would be in the form of an MCS
diving southeast out of South Dakota, through northeast Nebraska
and into western Iowa. This could bring the potential for large
hail, however damaging winds would likely be the main threat.

The other potential solution would be for a couple of strong,
isolated supercells to develop prior to the MCS passage. Should
these storms develop in the evening, when shear increases, they
would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado or two.

Friday...

Storms are currently expected to clear the forecast area early
Friday morning, making way for another round of intense heat to push
in from the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low
and mid 90s, however it will feel like 100-105 across much of the
area, potentially necessitating another Heat headline.

An outflow boundary lingering over northeast Nebraska could become
the focus for yet another round of strong to severe storms Friday
evening into Friday night. However, this threat will be more
dependent on how quickly morning storms move out and the recovery of
the airmass in the region.

Saturday (4th of July)...

The heat stays on for the 4th, as highs remain in the low to mid
90s, with heat indicies touching the low 100s. So be sure to stock
those coolers with plenty of water, in addition to other beverages.

A poorly timed shortwave looks to push into the region Saturday
evening and overnight, as mother nature offers her own fireworks
show. While it`s too soon to really nail down the timing, so far the
best chance for showers and storms (40-60%) looks to arrive between
7PM and 1 AM Saturday evening. While I wouldn`t cancel fireworks
plans just yet, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the
forecast if you have holiday plans.

Sunday and Beyond...

Off and on storm chances look to continue through Sunday and into
early next week. Unfortunately, the heat also isn`t ending any time
soon. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the low 90s, with
lows only falling to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight.
Additionally, CPC outlooks continue to highlight much of the country
leaning above normal for temperatures through mid-July.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the
period. Winds are expected to become SSW this afternoon and
increase, with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible. Storm
chances will increase this evening and overnight. While
uncertainty was still too great to include in the TAF at this
time, the best chance for storms looks to be between 00-06Z this
evening, with another round of storms possibly developing around
12Z Thursday morning. LLWS may increase overnight, as the low
level jet picks up, but should stay just southeast of the TAF
sites, according to the latest guidance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

401
FXUS63 KGID 011743
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and Humid weather continues through Saturday with highs in
  the upper 80s to upper 90s and heat index values in the 90s
  to around 100 degrees.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening-
  overnight hours today and Thursday. A few storms could be
  strong-severe capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
  large hail.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) during the late
  afternoon-overnight hours on Independence Day/4th of July.
  Some of these storms could be strong-severe. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A decaying thunderstorm complex continues to lift northeast across
the area. Some breezy winds (gusting 30-40mph) remain possible
under this mostly decayed stratiform rain shield. A few
scattered storms may move the area throughout the early
morning, but severe storms appear unlikely. Any lingering rain
is expected to exit the area shortly after sunrise.

Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow as ridging persists
over the Great Lakes. Another hot and humid day is expected
across the area with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat
index values in the 90s to around 100 degrees. Southerly winds
will be breezy across central and southeastern portions of the
area, gusting 20-30mph. Focus then turns to the potential for
thunderstorms during the evening-overnight hours. While models
differ on the coverage of storms, at least isolated storm
development is possible this evening along a front that
stretches across central portions of the area. 2500+ J/Kg of
CAPE is expected across the forecast area. Shear along and north
of the front will be supportive of stong-severe storms when
combined with CAPE. Another area to watch for storms will be
across western Kansas where a cluster of strong-severe storms is
likely to develop. This cluster of storms would move into
southwestern portions of the area during the late evening-
overnight hours. It`s plausible this cluster acts similarly to
Tuesday night/current storms where they quickly lose strength on
approaching the forecast area due to increasing inhibition and
weaker shear. Strong-severe storms could produce 60mph wind
gusts and half dollar sized hail. Scattered storms continue into
the overnight hours, with the coverage and intensity decreasing
over time.

Hot and humid weather continues on Thursday as highs once again
climb into the 90s with heat index values topping out around 100
degrees. Isolated storms that develop over western NE/KS move into
western portions of the area Thursday evening. These storms could be
strong-severe through intensity may wane as they move east and
inhibition increases around sunset. Another area to watch for severe
weather potential will be in South Dakota as storms could form into
an MCS that may clip northern portions of the area. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track as southwesterly flow becomes more zonal
on Friday-Saturday. Those with plans on the 4th of July should keep
a close eye on the forecast as a passing disturbance brings a chance
for storms during the late afternon-overnight hours. Machine
learning guidance highlights the potential for these storms to be
strong-severe though details are uncertain at this time and will
become clearer as we get closer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country and
extends over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An upper ridge
extends from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. South central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these two
features. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday,
especially across northern portions of the area with a surface high
present. Highs are expected to range from mid/upper 80s to the upper
90s. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the low/mid
60s to the mid 70s.

There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to enhanced (level 3 out of
5) risk of severe storms today into tonight. The highest risk
(enhanced) will be across portions of north central Kansas. CAPE
values will mostly range from 2,500 to 4,000+ J/kg. 0 to 6 km wind
shear values will get up to around 50 knots across mainly western
and northern portions of the area. Mid-level lapse rates will
generally range from 7 to near 8 degrees C/km. A shortwave is
expected to move over portions of the area this evening into
tonight. These conditions will contribute to the severe weather
threat this evening into tonight. The severe weather could start as
early as around 6 PM with an isolated supercell or two in north
central Kansas or in south central Nebraska west of Kearney. The
more widespread/main threat of severe weather is expected around 8
or 9 PM when a line/cluster of storms moves northeastward from
western Kansas. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms
will go when they move into the forecast area. While there is more
confidence for the storms to impact north central Kansas and
areas of south central Nebraska generally along and south of
Highway 6, some models are indicating storms moving from Furnas
County northeastward to Greeley County (similar to where storms
moved last yesterday evening/last night). Hail up to around golf
ball size and wind gusts up to around 70+ MPH will be the main
threats. The severe threat is expected to end around 2 AM
although additional (possibly strong) storms may develop after
that time.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Temperatures on Wednesday will be fairly similar to those today.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms across the majority of the
forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night with a small portion of
north central Kansas in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5). CAPE
values will be very high (over 4,000 J/kg according to the NAM12)
but 0 to 6 km wind shear will be a little weaker than today (up to
40 to 45 knots in some areas). Mid-level lapse rates will generally
be similar to those today. A shortwave trough is expected to move
over/near the area Wednesday evening and produce storms, some of
which may be strong to severe. Hail up to around the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be the main
threats. The main timing for severe storms will be around 7 PM to
midnight.

Thursday through Monday...

Similar high temperatures will continue for Thursday. There is a
marginal to slight severe storm threat for Thursday for south
central and central Nebraska. There is some uncertainty if storms
will even impact the area, but storms that do develop/move into the
area will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Some
storms may impact (up to around a 30% chance) northern portions of
the forecast area (Highway 6 and northward) Friday evening. Severe
potential is unknown at this time. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the lower to upper 90s.

It still appears that some, or most, of the forecast area could
experience showers and thunderstorms Saturday (4th of July) evening.
Right now for the evening and early overnight hours, there is a 30%
to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide. The severe potential
is unclear at this point but there is at least a low threat (20% to
30%) of severe storms. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. High temperatures Sunday and
Monday are expected to mainly be in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Some few to scattered MVFR ceilings are expected to leave the
area by around 20z. Thunderstorms may impact both KGRI and KEAR
from around 00z to 04z. There may also be brief, marginal wind
shear from 05z to 06z but lacked confidence to include at this
time. Winds will generally range from southeast to southwest.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion