40°F
Updated:
1/12/2026
7:12:05pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
476 FXUS63 KOAX 122300 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 500 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy and warm Tuesday with a 20-40% chance of light rain or sprinkles. The gusty winds may lead to localized areas of very high fire danger. - Windy Thursday night and Friday with a 30 to 70% chance of wind gusts of at least 45 mph. Highs in the 30s and 40s Thursday falling into 20s and 30s by Saturday. - Highest measurable precipitation chances of 30 to 40% (snow) in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa Friday. The snow and strong winds could lead to travel impacts (10-30% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Tonight through Tuesday night: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level disturbance moving through the mid MO Valley this afternoon with a relatively small area of mid/upper-level cloudiness associated with it`s passage. Temperatures are considerably warmer today than previous days with readings in the 50s to low 60s as of 3 PM. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows in the 30s to low 40s. Tuesday into Tuesday night, a shortwave trough currently emerging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies is forecast to amplify as it progresses through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing series of vorticity lobes are expected to settle south through the central Plains and Ozarks. Increased forcing for ascent tied to those features will contribute to top-down saturation of the atmosphere, and a chance of light rain or sprinkles (peak PoPs of 30-40% in northeast NE) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Some of the light precipitation could mix with light snow before ending Tuesday night. At the surface, the primary cyclone will remain linked to the lead disturbance well to our northeast; however, a trailing front will move through the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the front will support strong northwest with gusts of 30-40 mph Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures and the rangeland fire danger category will be influenced by the extent of cloud cover and any associated areas of light precipitation. This forecast update will indicate temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with rangeland fire danger in the high to locally very high category. Wednesday and Wednesday night: This will be an "in-between-systems" day with surface high pressure quickly building through the area. Winds will remain breezy from the north with cooler high temperatures in the 30s. Thursday through Sunday: A vigorous shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet streak are forecast to move through the mid MO Valley Thursday and Thursday night, following by a secondary vorticity ribbon Friday afternoon into Friday night. In the low levels, a cold front attendant to the lead wave is expected to move through the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. We`ll see a brief period of warmer temperatures ahead of the front with highs in the upper 30s and 40s Thursday afternoon. A colder air mass will filter into the region behind the front with highs falling into the 30s Friday, 20s and 30s Saturday, and mainly 30s Sunday. Northwest winds are expected to strengthen considerably behind the surface front Thursday night into Friday with the 12z EPS indicating a 30-70% chance of wind gusts of at least 45 mph Friday. The winds are expected to diminish Friday night. The 12z global models continue to indicate the best measurable precipitation chances to our northeast during this time frame with the highest local PoPs of 30-40% occurring Friday in northeast NE and west-central IA. Precipitation type at that time would be snow with the 12z GrandEnsemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) indicating a 40-70% chance of at least a tenth of an inch accumulation. The snow and strong winds could lead to reduced visibilities and resultant travel impacts (10-30% chance). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 445 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. High clouds will pass by this evening with calm southwesterly winds gradually veering to northwesterly. LLWS is expected to develop tonight (13/04-05Z) as northwesterly winds increase to 40-50 kts around FL015. LLWS will gradually diminish by 13/09-13Z. Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 22-26 kts through the afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
741 FXUS63 KGID 122325 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 525 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some light rain/sprinkles are possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A few flurries may mix in late Tuesday night. - It will be increasingly breezy from Tuesday through the end of the week. The strongest winds are expected on Friday, with gusts of 45 to 55 MPH possible. - A brief dip in temps Wednesday (30s/40s) before temps climb back well above normal Thursday (50s). A return to closer to normal temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend (mostly 30s). No significant chance for precip over this period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 North to northwestelry flow aloft is anticipated through the period with multiple (mostly dry) disturbances passing by the region. The most impactful weather of the week will likely be the very strong winds anticipated later this week, with gusts to 55 MPH possible on Friday. Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, plenty of cirrus can be streaming across the local area in northwest flow. Expect this cloud cover to continue through the overnight hours, which combined with steady westerly winds, will help keep up low temperatures mostly in the mid-30s to start the day on Tuesday. These temperatures will be very close to what are normal highs for mid-January. For tomorrow afternoon, expect a cold front to rapidly push south across the area during the afternoon hours with a weak disturbance aloft helping aid in the development of a few light showers/sprinkles. Overall, QPF amounts look very minimal (T-a few hundredths of an inch of precip), but most models have some light QPF being generated across the local area, and increased pops just a bit as fully expect some showers and sprinkles around much of the local area mainly during the afternoon/early evening hours...although some light showers/sprinkles/flurries could extend across the northern parts of our forecast area to start the day Wednesday as indicated in the global models. Beyond Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes even more amplified as high pressure expanding north across the west coast results in a more northerly flow pattern across the plains. As a result, after a brief uptick in temps Thursday, a more prolonged stretch of cooler weather returns Friday through Monday before the longwave trough attempts to shift further east towards the middle of next week, when a more northwesterly/mild flow returns. In the meantime, as this push of colder air makes its way across the area on Friday, expect a very windy afternoon across the region and will need to continue to monitor as wind gusts to 55 MPH currently look like the most impactful weather of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 519 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions through TAF period. LLWS is expected to develop after midnight as winds just above the surface increase. LLWS weakens during the mid-morning hours on Tuesday as surface winds begin to strengthen. West-northwest winds sustained around 15kts and gusts around 25kts are expected throughout most of the afternoon. Gusts drop to 20kts around the end of the TAF period. SCT-BKN Cirrus is expected overnight. Ceilings lower below 10,000ft during the afternoon as a band of showers/sprinkles move towards the area. Confidence in rain/sprinkles impacting the TAF sites is too low to include a PROB30 mention at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Davis
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