Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

320
FXUS63 KOAX 110447
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1047 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light, mixed-precipitation is possible (30-40% PoPs) near the
  SD border into west-central IA late tonight into Thursday
  morning. Minor ice accumulation could lead to minor travel
  impacts (10-20% chance).

- Confidence is increasing (30-50% PoPs) in another round of
  light snow in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa late
  Friday night and Saturday. There is a 20-50% chance of minor
  travel impacts in those areas.

- Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning
  before warming again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Tonight and Thursday:

Mid-level heights are slowly building across the northern and
central Plains this afternoon with that process continuing into
tonight ahead of a low-amplitude disturbance that will move
through the northern Plains Thursday. In the low levels, a
surface ridge axis currently extending from the central Dakotas
into the mid-MO Valley will build east of the area this evening
with a warm-advection regime overspreading the area tonight
into Thursday. Lift tied to that process will promote top-down
saturation with a chance (15-25%) of light snow or flurries (or
a very low probability of freezing sprinkles) developing across
our western counties between 8 PM and midnight.

Overnight into Thursday morning, the sustained warm advection
will support the development of an above-freezing, warm nose in
the 3-5 kft layer, which would result in the transition of any
light snow to light freezing rain. The best potential for that
occurrence (30-40% PoPs) is along the SD border into west-
central IA where this forecast update will indicate the
potential for a few hundredths of ice accumulation. Currently,
there is a 10-20% chance of minor travel impacts in those areas.
We will continue to monitor model and observational trends for
the potential necessity of a Winter Weather Advisory later
tonight.

Any lingering, light precipitation is expected to end Thursday
afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the
far southwest part of our area to low 30s in the far northeast.


Friday through Saturday night:

A surface cold front is expected to push south through the area
Thursday night ahead of a broad, Arctic high that will build
from the northern High Plains into the mid-MO Valley during this
time period. Aloft, another clipper system is forecast to move
through the northern Plains and upper Midwest Saturday with an
associated zone of mid-level frontogenesis supporting the
development of a snow band from the Dakotas into IA. Current
model solutions indicate the northern part of our area in the
southern fringe of the snow band with this forecast update
increasing PoPs to 30-50% Saturday. Snowfall amounts remain
uncertain with the EPS and GEFS indicating generally a 20-40%
chance of 3+" along the SD border into northwest IA. Accordingly,
the probabilistic WSSI shows up to a 20-50% chance of minor
travel impacts (i.e., snow-coverd roads) from northeast NE into
west-central IA. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
which should limit the amount of blowing snow.

As alluded to above, temperatures will turn colder with highs
in the 20s and 30s Friday falling into the teens and 20s
Saturday. Some single digits are even possible in our far
northern counties. The coldest temperatures are expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning when readings will range
from the single digits above zero in southeast NE to as low
as -10 in the Onawa, IA and Harlan, IA areas. Associated wind
chills will be below zero with the lowest readings of -10 to
-20 forecast in northeast and east-central NE into west-central
and southwest IA.


Sunday through Tuesday:

The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in
suggesting the progression of a flattening, mid-level ridge
into the northern and central Plains Sunday into Monday. By
Tuesday, there is some model signal that a low-amplitude
disturbance will move into the northern Plains. Those upper-air
developments will translate to a warmer surface pattern. We
will begin to see scouring of the Arctic air mass in our western
counties Sunday, and by Monday and Tuesday, afternoon
temperatures are expected to warm into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions should hold through the next 24 hours at all
three terminals, with the main forecast point to keep an eye on
being winds that have already begun shifting. KLNK and KOMA are
expected to follow KOFK`s lead in becoming southwesterly wind
direction at less than 10 kts, with those winds expected to
shift once again late afternoon tomorrow into the evening. Gusts
are expected to develop with the northwesterly winds. CLouds
should generally stay in the mid-to-high levels before lowering
at KOMA/KOFK tomorrow evening as precipitation chances drift to
the north of them.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

121
FXUS63 KGID 110530
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1130 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow possible (15-20%) this evening/night for areas
  northeast of the Tri-Cities. Little snowfall accumulation
  (T-0.5") expected.

- Temperatures will rebound to near 60 across the area Thursday,
  which looks like the warmest day of the period.

- A cold front will bring below normal temperatures back to the
  area over the upcoming weekend along with a very small chance
  for snow across areas mainly north of Highway 92 Friday
  evening/night.

- A rapid return to seasonably warm temperatures expected by
  Monday afternoon and then likely continuing through the end
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Winds have subsided nicely across the region this afternoon as
an area of surface high pressure has transitioned into the
central portion of the area. This area of high pressure is
expected to push east tonight as an upper level disturbance and
surface trough move in from the northwest. This trough will
push a warm front across the area overnight, resulting in a
quick rebound in temperatures Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the
warm front, however, there will be a brief window for some very
light precip across our north tonight, and have some very light
QPF in the forecast for areas northeast of the Nebraska Tri-
Cities this evening. Given the weak forcing relatively dry
airmass near the surface, this is a low probability event, and
little to no snowfall accumulation (T-0.5") is anticipated
across northeastern portions of the area.

While significant thin/high level cloud cover will likely trail
the aforementioned disturbance during the daytime hours
Thursday, this should have a minimal impact on afternoon high
temperatures tomorrow, which once again are expected to climb
into the lower 60s across the majority of the area. This warm-up
will be short lived, however, as the next upper level
disturbance and cold front push across the area Friday. While
there is still some spread in model guidance for temps Friday
afternoon and there correspondingly will likely be a
significant gradient in temperatures across the local area, the
cold air is expected to reach the tri-cities before peak
heating, and this should hold temperatures in the 30s across the
central and eastern portions of the area, while portions of
Kansas and western areas may still top out in the 40s to near
50.

As the cold front then spreads southwest across the entire area
Friday night, could see some light snow develop around daybreak
Saturday, but again this looks like a low qpf event that will
be focused across northern/northeastern portions of the area.
The main impact will therefore likely be the much cooler
temperatures and significant cloud cover (especially Saturday)
anticipated over the weekend.

As the main upper level low then swings further east by Monday,
expect the cold air in place to retreat to the east, and for a
rapid rebound in temperatures to start next week as weak ridging
aloft if realized and temperatures likely return to the 50s for
much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southeast winds
shift to the southwest this morning, becoming westerly during
the afternoon, gusting 15-20kts. Winds shift to the northwest
behind a cold front Thursday evening. SCT-BKN ceilings of
050-100 are expected overnight, with SCT high level clouds
possible during the day. Late in the TAF period Mid-level clouds
build back over the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion