Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

680
FXUS63 KOAX 272311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
511 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for several counties
  across northern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa through 6pm.
  Expect the combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity,
  and dry fuels to result in critical fire weather conditions.

- Light snow possibly transitioning to a light wintry mix is
  expected Sunday into Monday morning. Snow accumulations of up
  to two inches of snow will be possible along with a light
  glaze of ice on some surfaces.

- Heading into mid-week, temperatures will warm, gradually
  returning to the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Low pressure will move across Manitoba this afternoon with an
attendant cold front draped across Minnesota and South Dakota. The
front will drop into northern Nebraska later today, which will bring
some cooler air to the region tomorrow. For the rest of today,
expect high temperatures to reach the 60s and 70s across the region.
The Red Flag Warning was expanded southward due to concerns with low
relative humidity values (upper teens-low 20s), winds gusting as
high as 35 mph, and dry fuels. Any fires that start today will
spread rapidly.

Cooler air pushes in Saturday as the front continues across the
region. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with a few low 60s in some
locations.

Sunday, a shortwave trough enters the region from the west. Models
have shifted this system further to the south than past runs, which
has also effectively shifted precipitation amounts. Light snow will
be possible early on in the event, before changing to a wintry mix.
Snow accumulations of a dusting to maybe 1-2 inches will be
possible. The area where the highest snowfall amounts are currently
expected is mainly along and south of I-80. Heading into late Sunday
night/early Monday morning, there is a possibility of some light
freezing rain or freezing drizzle in southeastern Nebraska. This may
leave a light glaze of ice on surfaces.

Expect some ridging over the area on Monday, with temperatures
returning back into the 40s for highs. A gradual warming trend will
set up as a trough over the Desert Southwest puts us under southwest
flow. This trough is expected to lift to the northeast on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

As far as the mid-week storm system, a frontal boundary sets up over
southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri on Tuesday, lifting
slightly north on Wednesday but remaining in Missouri and Kansas.
There is still some model uncertainty on timing of a shortwave
moving through the region, with the GFS having a slightly quicker
and more aggressive arrival. The one things models are in agreement
on is that the system will not tap into warm, moist gulf air until
after it has moved past impacting our CWA. Right now, the best
chances of precipitation will be south of our CWA along the
boundary; however, there is a non-zero chance of some rain impacting
areas along and south of I-80 Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
only a few passing high-level clouds. Gusty northwest winds at
KOFK and KOMA are expected to diminish to less than 12 kt within
the next hour or so. Winds become northeast and then east
tonight into Saturday with speeds increasing to around 12 kt by
mid-morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

372
FXUS63 KGID 272313
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
513 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more mild day tomorrow (though not as nice as today)
  before much cooler temperatures settle in for a few days

- A light wintry mix will be possible on Sunday, with overall
  best chances (30-50%) being S/SE/E of the Tri-Cities. Impact
  potential still remains uncertain given model differences in
  exact precipitation type...but models agree that whatever does
  fall will be fairly light.

- Seasonably cool and somewhat more active pattern continues
  through the first half of next week, but wouldn`t get hopes up
  for appreciable moisture just yet. Forecast probably sounds
  more "active" than what it will be in reality.

- Second half of next week looks mild-warm, with at least one
  day forecast to spike into the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As anticipated, today has turned out to be a nearly perfect day
for late February...that is, if you don`t like winter.
Temperatures in the 60s-low 70s, decreasing winds, and plentiful
sunshine will continue through late afternoon, so get out and
enjoy it if you can.

A surface trough and cold front will swing through the area
tomorrow morning...without any precip and probably not even much
cloud cover. There`s really not much of a surge to the colder
air until later in the day...so with continued sunshine over
dry/bare ground...could still warm fairly nicely into the upper
50s to 60s. Models have trended a couple deg warmer as such.
The bigger difference, though, will be a stiffer Nrly breezy
around 10-15 MPH. Still not a bad way to round out February.

March will try to come in like a lion...but really it may be
more like a lion cub with not much ferocity or intensity. Our
next precipitation chance will come on Sunday, and by then, some
colder air will have deepened across the region thanks to
surface high pressure sliding by to the N/NE. A weak and quick-
moving, Pacific-based shortwave will traverse the region from W
to E on Sunday, and models remain consistent in generating a
broad swath of light QPF within the warm air advection regime of
the system. The wave will carry some upper level moisture with
it from the Pacific, but deeper low level moisture will be
tougher to come by until the very "last minute", meaning western
counties may see very little to no moisture - with better
chances E of Hwy 281. Even still, looks like brunt of QPF will
focus closer to the MO River Valley where there will be more
time for moisture return.

It`s tough to pin down specific impacts (if any?), as that
requires a firmer grasp of what the dominate precip type will
be. Forecast soundings are quite complex and suggest a mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain/rain are all possible. Of these
options, feel freezing rain is the LEAST likely to occur, and if
it does occur, impacts should be minimal given brief window of
opportunity as most precip should fall during the daylight hours
when pavement temps are warmer. Also, we don`t have any snow to
help "lock in" that near-sfc cold layer. That leaves snow,
sleet, or just cold rain as the other options. Sleet can be an
issue, even in small amounts, as it`s harder to melt on contact,
but I`m not convinced we`ll see enough of it with a faster
system progression, and again, marginal sfc temps. So...bottom
line...don`t be surprised to see a light wintry mix on Sunday.
May have to watch out for a few slick spots, esp. SE of the Tri-
Cities, but not expecting it to be more than a nuisance.

A larger, and somewhat more prominent, shortwave trough will
move in from the W late Mon into Tue...and possibly linger in
some form or fashion into Wednesday. With that said, general
consensus is that the wave will be deamplifying/weakening with
time, and remain rather disorganized as it slides through.
Specific details of this process are impossible to pin down this
far out...but the general signal from the guidance is that this
too would favor a lighter end event QPF wise, and not one that
blankets the area in appreciable moisture. The current forecast
calls for "likely" PoPs in nearly every period SOMEWHERE in our
forecast area from Mon night all the way into Wed night, but
this is likely more of a function of the uncertainty of when
individual vort lobes swing through. I don`t think it`s going to
be as active as the current forecast implies. Precip type
remains up in the air, but again, with the overall light/spotty
nature to the QPF it may not matter anyway. At the very least,
this trough will keep temperatures cooler compared to recent.

Ensembles finally clear out/weaken the trough altogether by late
next week, which should allow for at least a 1-2 day warmup back
into the 60s - probably for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through TAF period. Light and
variable winds expected this evening, setting at east-
southeasterly after midnight. Around sunrise, winds become
variable again as they shift to the northwest and gradually
increase. Northwest winds of 10-15kts develop Saturday
afternoon. FEW high level clouds are possible overnight becoming
clear Saturday morning.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion