Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

175
FXUS63 KOAX 161059
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
559 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds will lead to patchy blowing snow this morning.
  Expect slick spots/black ice as the frigid temperatures
  refreeze lingering precip on roadways. Use extra caution when
  traveling this morning.

- 30 to 35 mph northwest winds continue this morning before
  tapering off after 7pm. The winds combined with single digit
  temperatures will result in wind chills as low as -23F in
  northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa early this morning.

- 45 to 60% chance for precipitation on Tuesday in far northeast
  Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Warming trend starts
  Wednesday with locations reaching 80F by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis now shows the strong H5 longwave trof
centered over the Northern and Central Plains. Snow has gradually
come to an end across the forecast area with the main precip band
now well into central Iowa. Winds continue to be strong with several
area personal weather stations and METARs reporting gusts of 50 to
60 mph. Looking at the KOAX 00z raob, it shows a dry adiabatic
profile to just above H9 where a strong maxima of 50 to 60 kt winds
are. As the main low pivots more to the east, should start to see
some easing up on the winds after 06z. However, still expect gusts
of 30 to 35 mph for much of the day today through at least the
evening as we still mix into a lingering 30 to 35 kt jet.

The strong northwest winds have helped bring in a surge of cold air
into much of OAX within the last few hours. This signficantly colder
air will help refreeze any precip that managed to melt onto area
roads, resulting in areas of black ice. Areas of blowing snow will
continue for much of the early morning hours too, especially in more
rural areas resulting in localized visibility reductions. Plan to
add some extra minutes to your Monday morning commute to arrive at
your destination safely.

The cold air combined with the strong winds will lead to frigid wind
chills as low as -23F, particularly across northeast Nebraska into
west central Iowa where a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect
through 15z today. Wind chills in the single digits to teens below
zero are expected for the rest of the forecast area.
Plan to bundle up if you must be outdoors this morning. Some
improvement in temperatures is expected this afternoon although not
much as we`ll see wind chills in the single digits above zero to 20F
over our far southern areas. Sfc high pressure will dominate much of
the day resulting in dry conditions. Expect another frigid night
tonight with lows in the single digits to low teens and wind chills
in the single digits.

Tuesday will see a subtle shortwave approach the forecast area,
while at H8, the baroclinic zone swings northeast. Forcing from the
wave and low level warm advection should work with a stream of
primarily Pacific moisture resulting in precip chances over much of
the forecast area. The best chances for precipitation (45 to 60%)
are expected over far northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.
Regarding ptype, temperatures should remain cold enough early
Tuesday morning for primarily snow in those areas. However,
depending on how quickly sfc temperatures warm, could see a period
of freezing rain near the rain/snow transition zone in portions of
northeast Nebraska. BUFKIT forecast soundings in those areas show a
saturated profile with a warm nose at or just above H8. The depth of
the warm nose varies considerably as does the sfc temperature across
areas. For this forecast update, locations along the Nebraska/South
Dakota border into far northeast Nebraska have the best chance to
see a brief period of subfreezing temps below the warm nose with
freezing rain.

To the south and west of these areas, temperatures should warm to
above freezing as does the low level thermal profile with snow
changing over to rain. And even then, soundings do struggle to
saturate the low levels the farther south and west you go, so have
cut back NBM PoPs to 15 to 30% for the remainder of the forecast
area. As far as any snow amounts, the latest 00z HREF run suggests
areas along the Nebraska/South Dakota border into west central Iowa
have a 10 to 30% chance for at least 0.1 inches or more of snow,
while probabilities for 0.5 inches or more significantly shift north
and east away from the area. PoPs largely taper off by 00z.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The main message for the long term period will be the warming
pattern. 1000-500 mb thicknesses will increase over much of the
Central and Northern Plains areas as the western ridge pushes east.
Expect highs in the mid 70s across our far west Wednesday, upper 70s
to near 80F over our southwest areas Thursday, and widespread 80s by
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures cool to the 60s for most locations
by Sunday. PoP chances remain less than 10% for the area for the
rest of the long term forecast period, so enjoy the warmth and dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with increasing clouds in northeast NE this morning, and
areawide late tonight into Tuesday morning. Model soundings
suggest that brief periods of MVFR ceilings could develop at
KOFK this morning (20-30% chance) into early afternoon.
However, confidence in that scenario is currently too low to
include in the forecast. Otherwise, strong northwest winds with
gusts of 25-33 kt gradually weaken through the day with
sustained speeds dropping below 12 kt this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-
     012-015-017-018-031>034-043>045.
IA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-
     055-056-069-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

457
FXUS63 KGID 161126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today...but much warmer days will be here soon.

- There is a low chance (20-30%) for light rain/snow on Tuesday,
  mainly north and east of Grand Island.

- High confidence in dry conditions and well above normal
  temperatures for Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

As of 1230am, satellite shows a broken area of stratus over
north- central Nebraska, but otherwise mostly clear skies across
the area. As such, temperatures are already in the teens, and
will likely reach the single digits for most. The cold start to
the day won`t get much better in the afternoon, thanks to
continued northerly winds and cold air advection. High
temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s in the
northeast to perhaps near 40 in the southwest....roughly 20
degrees below normal for mid-March.

This blast of winter will not last long, though. The pattern
quickly flips on Tuesday, and southerly to westerly winds return
to the area. Meanwhile, a relatively weak shortwave will bring
a low chance for light precipitation to northeastern portions of
the area. This could fall as a mixture of rain/snow. The
potential for any winter impacts is low at this point, although
it may set up a very strong temperature gradient between eastern
and western Neb/Kansas. Areas around Highway 81 may struggle to
reach 50 degrees, while some areas near and west of Highway 183
will almost certainly reach the 70s.

Beyond that, there is high confidence in dry conditions through
the rest of the week. Additionally, upper-level ridging over
the western CONUS will result in unseasonable warmth for
Wednesday- Saturday. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the
warmest days...likely the warmest days we`ve seen since at least
mid- November. Record high temperatures for Friday and Saturday
are in the 82-86 degree range, and at this point it appears
likely that they will be broken.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95%) in VFR conditions. The daytime will
remain mostly clear. Clouds increase tonight, but cloud bases
should remain above 7kft.

Northwest winds increase a bit this later this morning (gusts
near 25kts), and then very slowly taper off in the afternoon
hours. Winds become light/variable this evening before turning
back to the south-southeast by daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2026

Today will remain cold, but the airmass is also very dry, which
will allow humidity to dip as low as 15 to 25 percent (lowest
west). Winds will be on a general decreasing trend, but gusts
20-25 MPH will persist into the afternoon...especially east of
Highway 281. The overall fire weather threat is significantly
lower than recent days, but some elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions remain possible...mainly southwest of a line
from Kearney to Hebron.

There will be a large spread in temperatures on Tuesday, but
western areas could see temps reach the 70s and humidity dip
below 20 percent. Widespread fire weather issues are not
expected, but a surge of stronger westerly wind could result in
near-critical conditions west of Highway 183.

Wednesday through Saturday will be unseasonably warm. Winds do
not look overly concerning for most of this timeframe, but will
may trend a bit stronger for Friday/Saturday. These days also
will feature near-record warmth and very low humidity. As such,
we will have to keep a close eye Friday/Saturday for potentially
another round of fire weather issues.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion