Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

695
FXUS63 KOAX 221914
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
214 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme to very high fire danger is still on track through the
  early evening.

- Dreary conditions move in overnight, with some drizzle
  possible early.

- Strong to severe storms are still on track to develop Thursday
  afternoon and evening (15% severe chance for any given storm),
  with the greatest risk from 2 PM to 8 PM.

- Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances
  for showers Saturday (30%) into Sunday (80%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad trough pushing
further eastward across the western third of the CONUS, with a band
of ascent draped across the Southern to Northern High Plains. Low
stratus that surged northward across the area this morning has since
eroded, as daytime mixing has kicked off. A potent low-level thermal
ridge has developed in anticipation of the aforementioned trough,
increasing wind speeds over the local area that we`ve mixed into
despite maintaining a relatively shallow boundary layer. Gusts are
expected to peak this afternoon in the 30-40 mph range, with warmer
temperatures driving relative humidity values below 30%. The
combination of the strong winds and lower relative humidity values
is leading to extreme fire danger across northeast Nebraska into
South Dakota, with a Red Flag Warning in place through 8 PM this
evening. At that point, winds will continue into the overnight hours
while temperatures cool to allow humidity values to rebound.
Overnight, that area of warm air advection/forcing for ascent will
shift eastward, filling in the area with cloud cover late this
evening into the overnight hours. Some light showers or areas of
drizzle will be possible, but won`t amount to much while
temperatures bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The main concern of the short-term forecast arrives tomorrow at
noon, where a Pacific Front will provide a focus for ascent
associated with the larger trough to the west. To the east of the
front, we`ll keep low clouds through the morning and early
afternoon, potentially lulling people into a false sense of security
that storms may not happen. Over time, the capping inversion that
was strengthened by warm air advection overnight will weaken,
allowing storms to form along the front as it slowly pushes across
the area. Plenty of shear and instability will be in place for
strong to severe storms to occur, with the devil being in the
details as to what that may look like. A large component of the
deeper-shear vector in forecast profiles are in line with the
initiating boundary, making multicellular clusters the likely storm
mode, where the is some initial room for isolated cells that
struggle initially with the dry air above 700 mb. Profiles favor
large hail and marginally severe wind with the strongest storms, and
possibly a tornado or two.

In terms of uncertainty and timing, one the first things to mention
is the placement of the front during the afternoon, namely the two
camps of model solutions. The most likely scenario places the front
along a line from Fairbury to Onawa, while the other camp (comprised
of largely experimental models like the MPAS) has it 2-3 counties to
the west. Shifting to timing, the widespread cloud cover may make it
hard to see initial storms struggling with the cap. By 17z that
inversion will be weakening, and the initial updrafts will generally
be weaker due to entrainment. Stronger storm initiation should occur
somewhere between 2-4 PM, and would be in close proximity or just
west of the Lincoln and Omaha/Council Bluffs Metro areas as they
form. Once they get a head of steam, they should grow upscale and
move across the eastern half of the forecast area, clearing it by 7-
8 PM. Overall rainfall amounts will be dependent on where the
storms initially form, but it looks again that areas that
desperately need rainfall (particularly northeast Nebraska) may
miss out on meaningful rainfall. Behind the front, very dry air
will fall into place and will increase fire danger to be very
high where rain does not fall.

Friday and Beyond:

With the Thursday`s remaining storms having pushed off to the
southeast, the weather pattern for Friday and Saturday will be
shaped by the lingering cutoff low centered over Saskatchewan
Manitoba. Squat mid/upper flow will turn from westerly to
southwesterly flow heading into the weekend, with another arm
shedding off and moving southeastward from the main low, helping to
force lighter rain chances that move into the area Saturday. Highs
will dip from upper 60s to near 70 degrees Friday into the low-to-
mid 60s with several wind shifts occurring. Sunday into Monday,
a negatively-tilting shortwave will kick out across the Central
and Northern Plains. Widespread rain/storm chances are
anticipated over the course of the two days, with the initial
wave currently timing out for increased severe storm potential
Sunday afternoon, especially for southeast Nebraska. Once that
system kicks off to the east, we`ll be dealing with zonal flow
and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s
through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the initial TAF period, with
southerly winds already gusting to 20-30 kts, and are expected
to increase slightly through the afternoon. Late this evening
into the overnight hours, MVFR to IFR cloud cover is set to move
into the area from the south. Low-end MVFR conditions currently
looks to be most widespread, but there is some potential for
widespread IFR ceilings to occur. Also, very small light showers
or areas of drizzle/mist a possible, and will move north over
time (30% chance) with confidence not being high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. By 16/17 tomorrow morning,
ceilings will be lifting slightly and gusts will be slower
(between 20 and 30 kts) in anticipation of potentially
strong-to-severe storms tomorrow afternoon into the evening
hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

747
FXUS63 KGID 221810
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions possible along/northwest of a Cambridge-
  Kearney-Fullerton line. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 12-
  8pm for those areas.

- Southerly winds gusting 30-40mph are expected across the area
  today, strongest along/west of Highway 183.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible (15-25%) this
  evening-night west of Highway 183.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible (20-60%) along a cold front Thursday
  afternoon (most likely east of Highway 281). A few of these
  storms could be strong-severe capable of producing large hail
  and damaging wind gusts.

- More widespread precipitation chances (40-75%) arrive this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently in the 50s and 60s with
southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Aloft a ridge is moving over the
Plains with a trough moving into the Rockies. Southerly flow has
helped to transport moisture into the area, with dewpoints in the
50s across central and southeastern portions of the area. A
deepening surface low over the Rockies will result in a tightening
pressure gradient over the area. As it does so, southerly winds
increase across the area today, gusting 30-40mph, strongest
along/west of Highway 183 in Nebraska where gusts to 45mph are
possible. Highs today will climb into the 80s, warmest across
western portions of the area where the greatest mixing and
lowest dewpoints are expected. Gusty winds combined in areas
that experience the warmest/driest temperatures result in
critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect 12-8pm for northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-
Kearney-Fullerton) that are most likely to see relative
humidity values of 20% or less.

Late this afternoon-evening scattered thunderstorm development
is possible along a dryline in western Nebraska/Kansas. Shear
and CAPE would be sufficient for these storms to become strong
to marginally severe capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. There remains uncertainty as to how far
east these storms will make it before dissipating this
evening/night. Still, it`s plausible that storms reach
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas county (outlined in the SPC day 1 marginal
risk) before stability increases and storms wane. Further east,
a few weak showers/storms are possible during the early morning
hours on Thursday, though any accumulation from this looks to be
light (0.10" or less).

A low over the northern Plains pushes a cold front through the area
during the day on Thursday. There remains spread within model
guidance as to how far this frontal passage moves through the area.
The front will serve as the forcing for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. SBCAPE values in excess of 2000J/Kg and shear of 30-
40kts support a threat for golfball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and
an isolated tornado. Three scenarios for thunderstorm development
are listed below along with their current likelihood.

Scenario 1 (Second most likely. Example model 00z NamNest): By the
early-mid afternoon the cold front pushes east of the forecast area.
Scattered thunderstorms that develop along the front remain east of
the area entirely (no severe threat).

Scenario 2 (Most likely. Example model 00z HRRR): Scattered
thunderstorms develop on the cold front located along Highway 81.
Initial storms will be discrete/supercellular, and capable of
producing all hazards. These storms exit eastern portions of the
area during the early evening hours. Areas most likely to see storms
are currently outlined in SPC day 2 slight risk.

Scenario 3 (Lowest  chance. Example model 00z RRFS): The cold front
is slower, with scattered thunderstorms developing along the cold
front located around Highway 281 during the early afternoon. These
storms would initially be discrete/supercellular, but develop into a
line over time. As storms develop into a line the threat for
damaging wind will increase. These storms would exit eastern
portions of the area during the mid evening hours. Areas most
favored to see storms are currently outlined by the SPC day 2
marginal risk.

Outside of the severe storm chances on Thursday, critical fire
weather conditions are possible behind the cold front. The highest
chances for critical fire weather look to be along/west of Highway
281 where the overlap of low humidity (10-20%) and breezy westerly
winds (gusting 20-30mph) is greatest. Fire weather headlines will
likely be needed for at least western portions of the area. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently through tonight...

Dry conditions continue to reign today...with satellite imagery
showing plenty of sun across the region. Looking aloft...upper
air data shows west-northwesterly flow in place as ridging
slides east through the Plains...set up between broad troughing
off the East Coast and a larger scale low pressure system moving
onto the coast of northern CA/southern OR. At the surface, the
first half of the day saw most spots with light/at times
variable winds with a weak surface boundary draped across the
area. This afternoon, low pressure/troughing over the High
Plains is helping to pull that boundary northward...with more
ESE to the north ahead of the front, more gusty southerly winds
to the south. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with
most in the mid-upper 80s. Do have spots where relative humidity
values have dropped to/below 20 percent...but with the winds
remaining generally lighter (though there has been an occasional
gust near 20 MPH), critical fire weather conditions haven`t
been an issue.

This evening through tonight, no notable changes were made to
the dry forecast. Not expecting changes with the surface
pattern, we remain east of the main area of sfc low pressure,
which will keep winds southerly through the night...speeds
around 10-15 MPH, can`t rule out some gusts near 20 MPH in
spots. The southerly flow will continue to transport better
moisture northward, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading across
more of the forecast area with time. Overnight lows tonight are
mild, dropping into the low-mid 50s (normal lows this time of
year are in the mid 30s-low 40s).

Wednesday...

Overall, models haven`t show any notable changes for
Wednesday...still looking to be another day of well above normal
temps, this time with stronger winds. In the upper levels, flow
across the Central Plains is turning more southwesterly as that
larger low pressure system moves further inland...becoming more
centered over portions of MT by early evening. At the surface,
low pressure continues to deepen ahead of this system...with
models showing a strengthening dryline extending through western
portions of SD-NE-KS. A tightening pressure gradient will bring
stronger southerly winds throughout the day...with gusts near
35-40 MPH possible, especially for WNW portions of the area.
Forecast calling for similar highs for most locations, well into
the 80s for some...little more uncertainty across SSE areas,
where there may be more lower level clouds lingering longer into
the day than in other spots. After collab with neighboring
offices, the main change to the forecast for Wednesday was with
the issuance of a Red Flag warning, for areas roughly along/west
of a line Genoa-Kearney-Beaver City, NE. There are some
uncertainties...mainly with dewpoints and how far they drop with
mixing through the day. Forecast is on the lower side of things
for dewpoints/relative humidity in that area...have RH values
falling into the 17-25 percent range, confidence in winds is
higher...that NWrn area has the best potential to reach critical
fire weather conditions.

Later in the afternoon, this surface dryline off to our west is
expected to be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, some of which could be strong-severe. The big
questions for our area lie in the finer details...exactly where
does that dryline initially set up/strengthen...and can any
activity maintain itself long enough to impact our CWA. The
further west that boundary ends up, the lower the chances of
impact on us...but there are a few models that inch things
further east...thus the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remaining
over our far west. Large hail/damaging winds would be the main
threat...and would likely be a short-lived threat.

Through the overnight hours...can`t rule out some scattered
showers and weaker storms passing through the area as that
main upper low/trough push further east. Based on some models
recent trends, feel that current forecast PoPs are too broad in
nature...have 20 percent chances all the way through our KS
counties. Some models keep us dry and focus things just off to
the north.

Thursday...

By the time 12Z Thursday rolls around...models aren`t in too bad
of agreement showing upper level low pressure having moved
into eastern portions of Montana...with a SSW extending trough
axis int the UT/CO border area. At the surface, models also in
good agreement showing the main surface frontal boundary looks
to be knocking on the door of our western-most counties. Through
the rest of the daytime- evening hours...question number 1 is
tied to that surface frontal boundary`s progress through the
forecast area. There have been and continue to be slight, but
important, differences between models (even run to run for some)
with the timing of that progress...as we get mid-late
afternoon, that front will be the focus of thunderstorm
development. Some models remain consistent that at most storms
affect roughly the HWY 81 corridor...others have trended more
toward/stayed with a earlier (more like early-mid afternoon),
further west development (closer to HWY 281). It`ll be
interesting to see how models trend, now that we`ll be getting
further into a timeframe where more hi-res models are available.
Ahead of the front, could have MUCAPE values exceeding 2000
j/kg...with deeper layer shear of potentially 30-40 kts. SPC Day
3 Slight Risk remains over portions of the area east of HWY
281. Any initial discrete storms look to form into more of a
line fairly quickly...and the main severe threat also looks to
make a overall quick exit to the east, even the slowest/western
models have us clear by mid-evening.

Along with the storm threat, there is also a fire weather threat
behind the surface front. Gusty west-northwest winds are
expected to accompany the front...along with a drier airmass
and increased mixing, dewpoints look to fall into the teens-20s.
Forecast relative humidity values below 20 percent have the
potential to be fairly widespread...but like the storm chances
will depend on the eastward progress of that front. With the
expected gusty winds, it`s looking likely a fire headline will
be needed for Thursday...just a matter of how much of the area
will be included.

Friday and on...

For the end of the week, models continue to show the main area
of upper level low pressure shifting into central
Canada...keeping some spotty precipitation chances around mainly
Friday night into Saturday. As we get into Sunday...another
shortwave disturbance that starts the weekend out in CA slides
ENE out onto the Plains...and models continue to be on the
aggressive side with the potential coverage of precipitation.
12Z ECMWF ensembles showing a roughly 30- 50 percent probability
of 1 inch more, mainly near/north of the NE- KS state
line...GEFS is lower. Will see how things trend in the coming
days...but that would be some very welcome moisture. Spotty
precip chances continue into the start of the new work
week...not much confidence in things that far out.

Following highs in the 70s-low 80s on Thursday...cooler highs
are expected through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun generally
range from the low-mid 60s north to low 70s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility along with
precipitation-free conditions the majority of the time. However,
there is at least a 6-7 hour period overnight into early
Thursday morning that will likely feature MVFR stratus, along
with PERHAPS a small chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm.
Otherwise, especially during these first 12 hours, moderately-
strong winds take center stage, with southerly gusts commonly
30-35KT especially through 05-06Z. Then, a shift to breezy (but
lighter) northwest winds takes place late in the period Thursday
morning (gusts to around 20KT).

- Ceiling/precipitation details:
Very high confidence in continued VFR (only some high cirrus)
through at least 04-05Z. Thereafter, equally high confidence
that an MVFR ceiling arrives (roughly 2K ft. AGL) and sticks
around through around 11Z KEAR/12Z KGRI, before it gets scoured
out/lifts to VFR behind a passing cold front. Of lower
confidence (but possible) is the chance for a few passing
showers/non-severe thunderstorms. Should this occur, it would be
most favored during the 08-12Z time frame, and have introduced
PROB30 groups to cover this.

- Wind details:
Consistent, moderately-strong southerly winds will prevail
throughout the rest of the afternoon-evening (sustained speeds
commonly around 25KT/gusts 30-35KT). Very late tonight into
early Thursday morning, winds will turn westerly and then
northwesterly, with gusts to around 20KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Dewpoints today will range from the mid 50s southeast of the Tri-
Cities to the upper 40s northwest of the Tri-Cities. Highs today
will be in the 80s, warmest across western portions of the area
where dewpoints are the lowest. Windy weather is expected
today, with the strongest winds west of Highway 281 (gusts
35-40mph). Afternoon relative humidity values range from the
low to mid 30s along/southeast of the Tri-Cities to the
teens/20s northeast of the Tri-Cities. Given the overlap of
lower humidity and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions
are possible across northwestern portions of the area which are
under a Red Flag Warning from 12-8pm today. While the area may
fall shy of reaching "official" fire weather criteria (RH = 25mph), the strong winds, warm temperatures and
near criteria RH  a headline regardless. Additionally gusty
winds may result in greater atmospheric mixing and lower RH than
currently forecast.

A cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, with dewpoints
falling into the teens/20s behind the front. Highs in the 70s
combined with dewpoints result in afternoon relative humidity values
of 10-20%. Breezy-gusty westerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected
behind the front. Given the overlap of breezy winds and low humidity
values, an area of critical fire weather conditions is likely behind
the front. There remains some uncertainty on how far east the fire
threat will extend (uncertainties on the frontal timing/placement),
but areas west of Highway 281 are most favored to see critical fire
weather conditions (and need a Red Flag Warning).

Afternoon relative humidity values of 20-25% are possible across the
area on Friday. Winds will be lighter overall, though some gusts
over 20mph are possible. An area of near-critical conditions are
possible wherever gusts over 20mph occur.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion