Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

649
FXUS63 KOAX 171108
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% chance of rain Monday, alongside breezy winds out of
  the southeast gusting to 20-35 mph.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain and possibly
  some snow heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Today through Tuesday...

Light southeasterly winds and patchy high clouds kept temperatures
limited to the 30s and 40s overnight. An upper low will move out of
the Wyoming/Colorado area into the Central Plains today. Strong warm
air advection ahead of this approaching system will continue to
bring increasing cloud cover to the region today, as moisture moves
in. Low level dryness may prove difficult to overcome initially, but
chances for light rain and drizzle reaching the surface will
increase throughout the day. As rain moves out late tonight, totals
will likely remain under 0.10", with highest amounts limited to
northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, along and north of a line from
Columbus, to Omaha, to Red Oak, IA.

In addition to the rain, southeasterly winds will increase through
the day, with speeds up to 20-35 mph possible. Temperatures will be
boosted with the warm southerly flow, yet still limited by the
persistent cloud cover, leaving afternoon highs ranging from the
upper 40s over northeast Nebraska to close to 60 near the
Nebraska/Kansas border.

Winds will weaken by early Tuesday morning, as they turn to the
north behind the passing cold front. A few sprinkles could persist
into the early morning hours on the back side of the low, however a
dry forecast is expected to prevail for the vast majority of the
day. Temperatures will again range from the upper 40s over northeast
Nebraska, to the 50s over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Overnight lows will hover just above freezing, in the mid to upper
30s both Monday and Tuesday nights.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Dry weather prevails through Wednesday and most of Thursday, ahead
of the next approaching low pressure system. A few showers could
sneak into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday, before
precipitation begins to overspread the forecast area from the
south. While rain will likely be primary precipitation type
late this week and into the weekend, a few ensemble members
continue to hint at light snow mixing in on the backside of the
system Friday night.

Dry weather returns for the remainder of the weekend into early
next week. Daytime highs will remain in the 50s, however nights
will dip toward freezing, beginning Friday night and continuing
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

MVFR clouds will push into the region this morning, with ceilings
around 2000 to 3000 ft. With the clouds, will come light rain
showers this afternoon and evening. The best chance for rain will be
between 22-04Z over northeast Nebraska. Southeasterly winds will
become gusty today, reaching speeds of 20-30 kts at times.
Wind speeds will diminish this evening, as precipitation
departs, gradually turning to the north late in the forecast
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

004
FXUS63 KGID 171125
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
525 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/Drizzle possible for areas mainly along and northeast of
  the Tri-Cities today/night.

- Cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 40s/50s, but climb back
  above normal Wednesday and Thursday (highs 50s/60s).

- More widespread rain chances (20-50%) arrive Thursday-Friday,
  with the greatest accumulations across north central Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Update...

Temperatures this morning are sitting in the 30s and 40s, with
southeasterly winds around 10mph. Aloft, a shortwave trough and
associated surface low are beginning to move into the Plains.
As the low tracks into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska this
morning, it will push a warm front into the area. Rain/drizzle
is expected to develop along the front during the mid-late
morning hours, mainly for areas northeast of the Tri-Cities.
Most of the forecast area will be south of the front during the
day and remain dry. Northeast of the Tri-Cities, light
rain/drizzle will likely continue off and on throughout the day.
High temperatures today will range from the low 50s in areas
under persistent low stratus/drizzle (north) to the upper 60s
in north central Kansas where greater sunshine can be achieved.
Southeasterly winds gusting 20-25mph are expected this morning,
decreasing from west to east during the afternoon. Rain chances
north of I-80 come to an end tonight as the low moves into the
Midwest. One thing to watch for tonight is the potential for fog
development. Models remain split on how widespread fog will be,
but indicate the potential for areas of dense fog.

Widespread low stratus lingers throughout much of the day on
Tuesday. This will result in a cooler day across the area, coldest
north of I-80. Have lowered Tuesday`s highs towards the NBM25th
percentile given the increased support for low stratus and the lack
of daytime heating expected (highs mid 40s to upper 50s). Otherwise
the forecast remains largely on track through the weekend. The next
system moves into the area on Thursday/Friday, bringing another
chance (20-50%) for rain. The highest chances, and heaviest rain
looks to fall across north central Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF
ensembles have a 40-80% chance for 0.5" or more of rain across
northern Kansas. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Tonight through Wednesday...

A low currently situated across Nevada today will soon be on track to
swing over into Nebraska around Monday evening. The approach of this
wave will stir up some banded precipitation primarily across South
Dakota, Southern Minnesota and Iowa to name a few places. Impacts to
the local area precipitation wise should be more on the minimal side
of things, although a few showers across Central Nebraska Monday
evening/night remain as a possibility (20-40% chances).

The latest short-term and high-res guidance (primarily the HRRR and
RAP models) continues to highlight some showers becoming wrapped
around the surface low Monday evening. These showers, would pass
from west to east across a few portions of Central Nebraska as the
surface low pulls away Monday evening. The latest 18z model guidance
places a cluster of these showers near and just north of the I-80
corridor between primarily 6PM and midnight. Most of these showers
should be brief, depositing at most a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch of moisture. Areas closer to and south of the state line will
likely be missed altogether (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion