Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

315
FXUS63 KOAX 101649
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and a few storms expected across
  eastern Nebraska through this evening (15-30% chance). Some
  storms could produce gusty winds or small hail.

- Stretch of hot and dry weather starts Saturday into much of
  next week.

- Potential rain chances return toward the end of next week, but
  right now confidence is low. Rain chances stay below 15%.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Satellite shows an upper-level shortwave is bringing a grouping
of 2-3 meso-vorticies through today, leading to our current
situation with a broad cloud shield over eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Rain should stay mostly confined to southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but CAMs do develop a few isolated
showers/storms over northeast Nebraska later this afternoon
into the early evening. Rain likely clears our area by 9PM. Good
news is limited shear should keep severe potential low, but
stronger storms could put down a few isolated gusts to 60mph,
especially this afternoon into the early evening when CAPE will
be highest. Temperatures today will stay fairly mild with highs
in the mid 80s.

We`re seeing a significant shift in the upper-level pattern
going into the weekend, with high pressure and ridging building
over much of the central CONUS. This will be bringing in an
extended stretch of hot and humid conditions with chances of
rain near zero through much of the extended forecast. We do see
a trend in the latest long-range guidance to shift the ridge
back westward toward the end of next week, putting us back in a
pattern of northwesterly flow. This would allow shortwaves to
bring rain chances back to the forecast starting Friday.
However, with a lot of time between then and now, much can
change. Confidence remains low in when rain chances will return
to the forecast.

The biggest concern through the next week will be an extended
period of hot and humid weather. While high temperatures will
not seem too extreme, humidity will bring heat indices up into
the low-to-mid 90s, only increasing toward the end of the week.
Guidance likely does not have a good handle of how much "corn
sweat" will contribute additional humidity at this time, and
with bias correction toward recency and climatology, I`d assume
that forecast dew points are likely too low, especially for day
three (Monday) and beyond. For now, not making any significant
changes to dew points (and resultant humidity) in the extended,
but don`t be surprised if heat indices increase as we get closer
to each day next week. Still, we`ll likely stay under "Heat
Advisory" criteria at least through the first half of next
week. With potential for added moisture advecting in from the
Gulf Thursday and Friday, we could get closer to critical
thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions through this evening. Widely
scattered showers and storms could bring brief periods of
reduced visibility, mainly from now through 03Z this evening.
30% chance of showers/storms at KOMA and KLNK through 21Z,
dropping to 15-20% after 21Z, and clearing the terminals by 00Z.
With low chances, didn`t include showers/storms in TAFs.
Clearing skies overnight tonight will lead to areas of haze or
fog toward Saturday morning from 10-14Z. 70% chance of reduced
vis (MVFR) at KOMA and KLNK with a 20% chance of LIFR
conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

176
FXUS63 KGID 101902
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
202 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will continue to decrease in coverage through the
  afternoon.

- Mostly dry conditions after today.

- Increasing temperatures expected through the end of the
  forecast, with heat index values in the low to mid 90s through
  most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today and Tonight

The showers/thunderstorms from this morning are continually
weakening and moving eastward out of the area this morning/early
afternoon, as the remnants of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV)
looses its upper level support. Some midlevel cloud cover will
linger through the afternoon across most of the area as the
shortwave trough aloft takes its sweet time moving east and
upper level divergence remains. Due to this limited solar
radiation reaching the surface, high temperatures today will
remain cool for July`s standards, with highs generally in the
mid 80s.

This Weekend into Next Week

After today, a high amplitude ridge will build across the central
CONUS, with 500mb heights between 570-600dm reaching up to the
US/Canada border. This will allow for dry conditions and
temperatures to steadily increase up into the 90s by Monday. Heat
index values remain in the low to mid 90s through most of next week,
as low-level moisture flow from the Gulf looks to be more limited.
In fact, there is a low chance (up to 20%) that heat index values
exceed 95 degrees through Wednesday.

Precipitation chances remain grim through the end of the forecast
period, with the next best chance next weekend. However, there is a
fair amount of uncertainty in the overarching synoptic pattern, with
some model guidance suggesting the penetration of a digging trough
(supporting a possible break from the heat and a chance for
preciptiation) while other model guidance maintains the upper level
ridge (supporting continued warming temperatures and a greater
potential for extreme heat).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings have lifted and the expectation is that VFR conditions
will continue to prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period with decreasing clouds this evening. Can not rule out a
few more sprinkles around KGRI through 3 PM given current radar
trends with sprinkles still in the area. The wind will remain
light at less than 10 kts throughout the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion