Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

145
FXUS63 KOAX 020138
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
838 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. The hottest days
  look to be Friday and Saturday with heat indices up to 100-105.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight,
  particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and
  locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms
  that develop (though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out).

- Additional severe storms possible Thursday morning, Thursday
  evening, and Friday evening.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of
  rain and storms waits for the evening of the 4th of July.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

A swath of agitated clouds sits atop more stable billow clouds in
the local area, signaling that the inversion apparent at 825 mb
has been delaying the start of convection this evening. The
general expectation is that nosing on the northern edge of the
low-level jet along with general warm air advection will only
increase over the next hour or two, allowing scattered
convection with embedded severe activity to occur.

Taking a look at hazards, both shear and instability are in
abundance across northeast Nebraska, with deeper shear vectors being
in-line with the initiating (though elevated) boundary. Once storms
are able to initiate, they may have some time to be more discrete to
allow for higher hail potential (2" or more). Once those storms do
grow upscale, winds will be the primary threat, with speeds being
highest with any northwest-to-southeast oriented bowing segment. One
unknown as far as convective evolution is concerned is how the
inversion will affect surface-based parcel potential and how it will
affect the southeastward extent of the storms. The latest runs of
the HRRR have a couple rounds of storms separated by 2-3 hours, with
the second of the two affecting the Omaha/Council Bluffs Metro area
after midnight with lower chances for severe winds, owing to
decreased shear and increasing inhibition overnight. A low-end
tornado threat also exists, with any chances likely being embedded
within some of the bowing segments. Convective activity should
decrease over the course of the early morning hours, with
additional storms (though weaker and less widespread) being
depicted through sunrise. As storms track over the same areas,
the risk for flooding will increase going forward.

Storm chances tomorrow are becoming increasingly murky as timescale
for overnight storms widens, with two rounds of MCSs potentially
diverting storm chances to the fringes of the forecast area. CAMs as
of the initial peeks of the 00z runs give the best chances for
widespread severe activity to Iowa, from 5 PM onwards while the
rest of the forecast area to the west having to wait until the
overnight hours. Aside from the shower and storm chances, high
temperatures are expected to hit the upper 80s to low 90s with
apparent temperatures creeping near 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Thursday...

Another round of storms, associated with a potential MCV moving out
of Kansas, is expected to develop Thursday morning around 8-9 AM.
While overall shear may be somewhat limited, enhancement from the
MCV could lead to a few severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

Cloud cover associated with morning showers and storms will
once again mitigate some of the heat effects Thursday afternoon.
Highs will likely top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, with
heat indices remaining at or below 100.

Thursday evening, additional severe storms could impact the
area in 2 different ways. The first and more likely scenario, if
you believe the latest CAMs, would be in the form of an MCS
diving southeast out of South Dakota, through northeast Nebraska
and into western Iowa. This could bring the potential for large
hail, however damaging winds would likely be the main threat.

The other potential solution would be for a couple of strong,
isolated supercells to develop prior to the MCS passage. Should
these storms develop in the evening, when shear increases, they
would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado or two.

Friday...

Storms are currently expected to clear the forecast area early
Friday morning, making way for another round of intense heat to push
in from the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low
and mid 90s, however it will feel like 100-105 across much of the
area, potentially necessitating another Heat headline.

An outflow boundary lingering over northeast Nebraska could become
the focus for yet another round of strong to severe storms Friday
evening into Friday night. However, this threat will be more
dependent on how quickly morning storms move out and the recovery of
the airmass in the region.

Saturday (4th of July)...

The heat stays on for the 4th, as highs remain in the low to mid
90s, with heat indicies touching the low 100s. So be sure to stock
those coolers with plenty of water, in addition to other beverages.

A poorly timed shortwave looks to push into the region Saturday
evening and overnight, as mother nature offers her own fireworks
show. While it`s too soon to really nail down the timing, so far the
best chance for showers and storms (40-60%) looks to arrive between
7PM and 1 AM Saturday evening. While I wouldn`t cancel fireworks
plans just yet, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the
forecast if you have holiday plans.

Sunday and Beyond...

Off and on storm chances look to continue through Sunday and into
early next week. Unfortunately, the heat also isn`t ending any time
soon. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the low 90s, with
lows only falling to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight.
Additionally, CPC outlooks continue to highlight much of the country
leaning above normal for temperatures through mid-July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Low-end VFR ceilings are in place across the terminals early
this evening, where cloud bases of FL035-045 waft above
southerly winds that are gusting at KOMA/KLNK to around 25 kts.
Expect those winds to continue through the next few hours,
with main story being thunderstorm development that is expected
to occur by 01z near KOFK that will build eastward, clipping
KOMA around 07z. Gusts to 25 are generally expected for areas
not directly hit by the worst conditions, with visibilities of
2 miles or less and gusts of 35 kts or more expected with a
direct hit from a strong portion of the cluster of storms (30%
chance at KOFK, 10% chance at KOMA). Once those storms clear,
winds will generally fall back out of the south, with a bank of
showers possible during the afternoon hours tomorrow in addition
to gusty winds of 20-25 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Petersen
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

221
FXUS63 KGID 012343
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
643 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms this
  evening into tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the
  main threats.

- Convection may redevelop across eastern portions of the
  forecast area Thursday morning.

- Storms may develop/move into portions of the forecast area
  Thursday evening. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe
  weather.

- There is uncertainty in regards to placement and timing of
  showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday
  evening/night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.

- High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s and low
  temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over most of the western part of the
country and extends over the northern Plains and much of the Upper
Midwest. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast towards the
Northeast. Temperatures this afternoon will heat up into the upper
80s to mid/upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms this evening into tonight with another shortwave expected to
move over the area. The latest HRRR shows some storms developing
across south central Nebraska between 9 PM and around 1 AM. Portions
of north central Kansas may also get storms. The main threats will
be hail up to around the size of half dollars and wind gusts up to
around 60 MPH. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Thursday into Thursday night...

The HRRR and NAM12 are both showing showers and storms developing
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
Thursday morning. These storms may get strong to possibly marginally
severe with fairly high CAPE, instability, and upper level lift
present. Some isolated, weaker showers and storms may linger into
the afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty about storm
development across the area late in the afternoon into the evening
hours. The HRRR brings in some showers and storms around 8 or 9 PM
with everything pretty much gone by 2 AM. However, the NAM12
develops a storm around the Grand Island area by early evening and
continues storm development through most of the night generally
along and north of I-80. If these storms do develop, they have a
fairly high potential (around 70%) of becoming severe given very
high CAPE (3,000 to 5,000+ J/kg), decent wind shear (30 to 40 knots
across most of the area), and mid-level lapse rates around 7 to 8
degrees C/km. The deciding factor may be if a shortwave trough moves
over/near the area. Most of the area is in a marginal to slight risk
of severe weather. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar to
those from today. Low temperatures Thursday night may be a couple of
degrees warmer than the previous night.

Friday and Friday night...

Temperatures are expected to warm up on Friday with highs in the
lower to upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms across most of south central and central Nebraska Friday
evening into Friday night. Details about these storms remain
uncertain at this time.

Saturday and Saturday night...

There remains uncertainty with regards to temperatures and
precipitation on Saturday. There is supposed to be a cold front
moving into the area but the timing is uncertain. At this time, high
temperatures on Saturday are expected to range from the mid 80s to
mid/upper 90s. High temperatures will be cooler (especially along
and north of I-80) if the NAM12 is right since it brings in the cold
front sooner and develops precipitation earlier in the day. Both the
GFS and ECMWF bring in the front and precipitation later in the day
(late afternoon/early evening). The GFS and ECMWF are not in
agreement with regards to placement of the showers and storms. There
is potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe
late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening given fairly high
instability and wind shear. At this time, there is not high
confidence in the placement of showers and storms Saturday evening,
but there is fairly high confidence (around 60%) that there will be
convection.

Sunday through Tuesday...

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the
mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances (around 15% to 25%) of showers
and thunderstorms are in the forecast for various parts of the area
Sunday through Tuesday. Morning low temperatures will generally be
in the low 20s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though storms may be possible to near or develop around the
terminals between 0-4z, the quickly northward surging surface
boundary (evident on satellite by the linear cumulus
convergence boundary), may suggest that the best potential for
storms may now lie north of KEAR/KGRI. The only other window of
concern for weak storms or light rain may possibly come between
12-16z. Ceilings and visibilities will likely remain VFR in
either case.


Though some marginal and likely brief LLWS could be possible at
times across the overnight hours, models tended to keep wind
speeds just at or very briefly meeting LLWS criteria. Surface
winds tonight will be expected to remain out of the south with
speeds mainly maintaining below 10kts, especially after sunset.
During the day Thursday, directions should become more
southeasterly with speeds nearing 15kts and gusting near 25kts
(brief gusts as high as 30kts possible during the early
afternoon hours).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion