Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

361
FXUS63 KOAX 101722
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s, followed by
  some 90s by Thursday/Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger
  on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday
  night/Tuesday (10%) and hit and miss chances Thursday into the
  weekend (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed some weak shortwave energy sliding
through the area and leading to some increasing cloud cover. Could
eventually see a few sprinkles out of these clouds as we go through
the afternoon, but very dry low levels, cloud bases at 9000-10000
ft, and only a shallow cloud layer per model soundings suggest those
would be few and far between. Otherwise, temperatures as of
noon were mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

For the week ahead, expect a general warming trend as upper level
ridging over the western CONUS gradually edges eastward and we see
occasional punches of southerly low level flow. Expect mostly highs
in the 80s through Wednesday before some 90s start to creep in by
Thursday and last into the weekend. Despite the aforementioned
southerly flow at times, moisture will remain limited, with just
enough of a westerly component of the wind to keep higher dewpoints
to our east. As a result, we`ll see daily minimum RH values in the
teens and 20 which will yield some fire weather concerns in areas
with dry fuels (i.e. northeast NE) on days when we`re a bit
breezier. Latest guidance would suggest our highest potential for
meeting Red Flag Warning criteria would be on Tuesday and Thursday
when EPS guidance gives a 40-60 percent chance and a 80-90+ percent
of exceeding 30 mph gusts, respectively. Monday will also be a touch
breezy, with model soundings showing some 25+ kt winds at the top of
the mixed layer, though guidance is in relatively good agreement
that we will struggle to reach 30 mph gusts at the surface.

Rain chances through the week remain fairly low and those we do have
look like they`ll be pretty light if we get anything. The first
chances will be Monday night into early Tuesday as a shortwave
trough and surface low push southeast out of Canada and into MN.
This will drag a cold front through the area with a few pieces of
guidance hinting at some light QPF clipping northeast NE, but with
such little moisture for the front to work with, think it will be
tough to see much more than sprinkles, so keeping precip chances
under 10% with higher chances being to our northeast and closer to
the low. By Thursday, guidance suggests we may start to see a little
bit better moisture return ahead of several bits of shortwave energy
that are progged to impact us through the weekend. Currently the
highest chances are Thursday evening/night and Saturday
evening/night (20-30%). That said, overall forecast confidence is
rather low as there`s quite a bit of spread in timing and strength
of these various waves. Should also note that the various machine
learning severe weather outlook algorithms do show at least 5-15%
chances for severe storms Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period with lingering
clouds around 8000-10000 ft agl. Northwest winds should remain
near or below 10 kts through the afternoon before weakening this
evening with varying directions. They`ll eventually become
southerly to southwesterly Monday morning, again around 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

838
FXUS63 KGID 101106
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
606 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably pleasant today.

- The rest of the week will be hot and mostly dry with continued
  fire weather concerns.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for portions of the area
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The primary concern through the next week is fire weather. For
details on that, please see the Fire Weather section below.

Radar shows some very light showers over northern Kansas
continuing to slowly drift southward. These may persist a bit
past sunrise, but anything more than 0.01" is unlikely.
Otherwise, today looks to be a VERY pleasant day with near
normal temperatures (70s), light/variable winds, and clearing
skies.

The rest of the week will feature above-normal temperatures
(80s and 90s), with only low chances for rain late in the week
and into the weekend. Below-normal rainfall totals continue to
be favored by the global ensemble models through at least the
next 10-15 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A cold front crossed the local area early this afternoon
switching winds to the north and bringing a few showers to areas
mainly south of I-80. Latest mesoanalysis from SPC indicates
that there is very limited instability to work with, but evenso,
we have seen a couple of weak thunderstorm manage to develop
across north central Kansas this past hour. Most recent CAMS
suggest additional development across north central Kansas over
the next few hours, keeping the more explosive activity to the
south of the local forecast area.

Upstream of the area, thunderstorms can be seen expanding in
coverage across northeastern Colorado...which is forecast to
transition east/southeast through the evening hours...
potentially impacting areas mainly south of I-80 late tonight.
That said, by the time this activity reaches the local area it
should be weakening, and the severe weather potential will
likely be limited to stronger wind gusts...if any stronger
storms are able to hold together at all. While precipitation
totals are generally highly variable with thunderstorms, most
locations south of I-80 can expect to see less than 0.10" of
precipitation with a few lucky locations across our north
central Kansas counties possibly seeing closer to 0.50".

Expect a few lingering showers to then impact portions of north
central Kansas early Sunday morning, with clearing skies
anticipated areawide by mid to late morning. With high
temperatures in the lower 70s, light northerly breezes and ample
Sunshine, Sunday should be a very nice day across the area,
before temperatures start to ramp up for the start of the work
week. This warm-up will be in response to high pressure
transitioning across the area aloft by Monday  afternoon...
helping temperatures to climb into the 80s while suppressing any
convective potential. Thus, expect a dry and warm first half of
the week, with well above normal temperatures late week as the
ridge pushes further east and a west coast low transitions
across the intermountain west. Plenty of uncertainty in the
track of this low late week with the 12Z operational run of the
EC taking it north of the area and the GFS lifting it northeast
across Nebraska late Friday. That said, neither the GFS or EC
ensembles have a strong signal for precip at this time, so while
there are small pops in the forecast late next week, confidence
is low. What appears more certain is above normal temperatures
returning Monday and likely lingering into the latter part of
May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Skies clear this
morning, with fair-weather cumulus expected this afternoon.

Winds remain light through the period, varying from the WNW
today to the SSW tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Winds will be light and variable today and temperatures are expected
to be near-normal (highs in the low 70s). As a result, the fire
weather threat remains low today.

That changes as we start the workweek on Monday. High temperatures
will reach the 80s, pushing humidity down as low as 15-20%. This will
be combined with southwest winds gusting up to 25-35 MPH, resulting
in widespread near critical to critical fire weather conditions. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for western zones where fuels
remain driest and most susceptible to large fire.

This trend then continues through the rest of the week as above-
normal temperatures continue.

A front moves through for Tuesday, resulting in gusty north winds.
This will not bring a significant cooldown, though, and humidity is
still expected to dip into the teens in many places.

Winds will return to the south for Wednesday, but are expected to be
noticably lighter for the eastern half of the area. Western zones
could see another round of critical fire weather conditions, though.

On Thursday, temperatures are favored to reach the 90s in many
areas, with continued south winds. Friday will feature similar
temperatures, but potentially a reprieve from the wind.

Another front is anticipated to move through for Saturday, but, like
Tuesday, is unlikely to bring a significant cooldown to the area.

The opportunity for rain is off/on low (10-20%) chances Thursday
night through Saturday, but a widespread wetting rain is very
unlikely.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion