Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

689
FXUS63 KOAX 041047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms continue through the early morning
  hours, with one or two strong storms producing hail or
  damaging winds.

- Independence Day will feature highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
  There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms during the evening,
  and if they develop, they could produce locally damaging
  winds.

- Sunday through much of Tuesday brings a period of slightly
  cooler, slightly drier, and mainly precipitation free
  conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Several severe storms developed this evening, but the overall
intensity of those storms has waned as we`ve gotten into the
evening hours. As of midnight, we do have some fresh development
on the nose of a weak low level jet from the Grand Island area
over toward Wahoo. This environment has a substantial amount of
most unstable CAPE, in the 3000 J/kg range, but the effective
shear is not particularly impressive and forecast soundings show
a bit of a weak cap for those elevated parcel sources. Going
forward, anticipate this scattered thunderstorm activity to
continue particularly between Lincoln and Columbus and areas to
the southwest. There is a small chance for one or two of the
strongest storms to produce severe hail, but it seems it would
require a particularly tall updraft to access better effective
shear, and might be favored in any left-moving elevated
supercell that can develop given the anticyclonically curved
effective hodograph. By 2 or 3 AM, these storms should be on a
decreasing trend as the weak LLJ further weakens and refocuses
farther south.

Independence Day will be warm and humid with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s, and dewpoints up around 70 again. Much of the
day is likely to be free of precipitation, but there is a
feature of interest currently crossing central Montana in WV
imagery scheduled to approach our northwestern parts of the
forecast area by early evening. Several (but definitely not all)
models are producing scattered thunderstorms in advance of this
short wave trough. Boundary layer convergence is weak and
unimpressive with this system, but the mid/upper support may be
sufficient to set off storms. If thunderstorms develop in SD and
northern NE, there is a decent signal that they could push a
cold pool southeast across the forecast area and force
additional development. Expect moderate instability in place
with unimpressive wind fields, so a widespread organized storm
complex doesn`t look especially likely, but will still need to
monitor the potential for damaging wind gusts. And of course,
any potential for thunderstorms during the evening of the 4th
can have substantial impacts. Right now I`d say we`re looking at
about a 30% chance of a thunderstorm influencing peak fireworks
hours, and mainly southeast of Albion, Norfolk, and Wayne
areas.

Sunday and Monday are likely to be quieter with mainly dry
conditions and temperatures in the 80s with a slightly drier
airmass. Tuesday will be similar, but late in the day could see
storm chances return especially in the north as a short wave
trough crosses the northern Plains. There is strong model
agreement that the front associated with that trough will sag
through our area on Wednesday with a good chance for
thunderstorms. Then our next best chance for storms arrives
Friday night with another stronger short wave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

All the remaining thunderstorms are south of the the TAF
forecast sites this morning, and will keep the forecasts dry for
now. There is a 20-30% chance of storms this evening, but
timing and location question marks leave confidence too low to
include in the forecast for now.

The other primary concern is the early morning fog. Fog has
lifted at KOMA and KLNK, but remain in place at KOFK. Expect to
see improvement between 13Z and 15Z... with a return to VFR cigs
and visibility by 17Z.

Winds will remain quiet through the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch/KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

395
FXUS63 KGID 041115
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most of the daytime will be dry this Independence Day.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms return from the
  north/northwest this evening. Some could be marginally
  severe.

- The early part of next week should remain mostly dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

As of 1am, more robust convection continues to redevelop over
northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. This activity is expected
to push eastward through the early morning. This is expected to
primarily impact areas near and south of the KS/NE state line,
but isolated storms cannot be ruled out further north as well.
Hail will be the primary threat with these storms, although
locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out either. Near-term
models show this activity weakening and departing the area by
around 8-9am at the latest, and the rest of the daytime should
remain dry.

This afternoon, the strongest thunderstorms should redevelop
safely to our southeast, but additional storms are also
anticipated to develop over the Sandhills and gradually move
southeastward through the evening hours. There isn`t great
consensus amongst the CAMs on coverage/timing, but I would
anticipate at least a few storms to contend with for fireworks
displays this evening. Shear is a bit weaker than today, but
would still be supportive of at least a couple "low-end" severe
storms.

After today, the forecast dries out as we head into next week.
It will remain warm, but not excessively hot. Off and on
rain/t-storm chances return in days 4-7 (Tuesday night through
Friday). Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly
above normal during this period, but longer-range ensembles are
hinting at the potential for extreme heat returning for next
weekend and into the early part of the following week (July
11-14).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

I have focused on the nearest 24-48 hours and thus the majority
of this discussion will focus on that period.

This evening and overnight hours has multiple rounds of
thunderstorm activity, I will go into the expectations of each
one.

Round 1: This evening 5 PM - 11 PM
This area is what we are watching now, primarily development is
expected along the Hwy 30/Platte River Corridor between Grand
Island and Columbus, NE. Between 1 PM and 2 PM cloud cover,
cumulus has grown in areal extent. The vertical nature of this
cumulus is still relatively shallow, but the area shows where
there is more instability. This area southward along Highway 81
will be will be the favored area for development between 5-7 PM.
This activity could be severe and is highlighted by the SPC
enhanced risk, and expect a convective watch at some point in
time. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls are
the primary threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out, and
flooding, especially for areas that receive multiple later
rounds is a threat.

This activity is expected to track south and east into
eastern/southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas as we
move towards sunset and beyond.

Round 2: Tonight midnight - 4 AM
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the nose of the Low
Level Jet with thunderstorms developing along an east-west line
following roughly Interstate 80. There is some question exactly
where this activity will develop, but anywhere along and south
of I-80 is in the region for being impacted by these
thunderstorms. Some of this activity could be severe.

This activity is expected to track southeast with time.
Meanwhile Round 3 will be starting off....

Round 3: Tonight 3 AM - Saturday mid-morning
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of
northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska and track slowly
east during the overnight and early morning hours. This activity
is expected to be similar to what we saw this morning, with weak
showers/thunderstorms. Severe storms are not anticipated.

How will these storms impact Saturday July 4th?
All of these rounds of thunderstorms today will impact how the
chance for thunderstorms develops Saturday. The morning
thunderstorms will push the potential for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms southward into central and southern/eastern
Kansas. While we cannot rule out some of the afternoon storms
impacting Rooks, Mitchell, and Osborne counties, as of this
forecast it`s looking optimistic.
For the areas that are impacted by Round 3, once it stops
raining and clears out, it is expected to be a dry and sunny
day. For everyone else, it looks to be a dry and sunny day.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of
the Nebraska Panhandle, and they are expected to track southeast
with time, similar to the track seen last week. This could
impact north central Kansas counties in the late evening and
early overnight hours.
Overall the picture for tomorrow for north central Kansas will
become more clear tomorrow morning after all of these rounds of
thunderstorms.

Highs on the 4th are currently forecasted to be in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

After the 4th...
The end of the weekend and start of the work-week look dry as
upper level ridging begins to build in from the southwest. It
doesn`t last overly long as some stronger disturbances break the
ridge down and precipitation chances return for the second half
of the work week. Temperatures will generally be seasonal with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Lower ceilings/vis that briefly impacted the terminals (mainly
EAR) has departed, and VFR conditions are favored for the rest
of the period. The main issue will be the potential for
thunderstorms this evening. The PROB30 group was maintained from
01-04Z with scattered storms expected to approach from the
northwest.

Winds today remain light and will turn from the south to the
north during the daytime. Winds then go variable this evening
into tonight.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion