Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

224
FXUS63 KOAX 081943
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
143 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures persist, with highs in the 50s and
  60s today, warming into the 60s and 70s on Monday. Dry and
  windy conditions on Monday will bring areas of very high fire
  danger to eastern Nebraska.

- Continued warmth increases the potential for river ice breakup
  and ice jams. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Platte,
  Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers.

- Periodic precipitation chances (15-40%) return late Wednesday
  and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight through Tuesday...

A pleasant afternoon is ongoing as upper-level riding remains in
place across the south-central CONUS. A warm front that moved
through the area earlier today has ushered in a renewed period of
WAA, allowing afternoon highs to climb well above normal into the
50s to mid 60s across east-central Nebraska. Southerly low-level
flow will return overnight and into Monday, supporting continued
warming with highs rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. These values
are roughly 30 degrees above early February climatological normals.
Record highs will likely be challenged on Monday, including Omaha
(63 degrees set in 1954), Lincoln and Norfolk (both 68 degrees, set
in 1954).

Pockets of very high to extreme fire danger are expected across
eastern Nebraska Monday afternoon as relative humidity values fall
in the 18-25% range. Southerly wind gusts will reach the 20-30 mph
range before a surface cold front moves through late in the
afternoon, shifting winds to northwesterly. Have opted to bump winds
up Monday afternoon, given that model soundings indicate 30-40 kts
at the top of the mixed layer. Recent HRRR/RAP model soundings have
trended towards much deeper mixing heights, potentially mixing
towards 10kft with 40-50 kts at the top of this layer and bringing
30-40 mph gusts to the surface. The currently blended winds keep us
just below Red Flag Warning criteria, though trends will need to be
monitored to see if additional adjustments and fire weather
headlines are warranted, particularly across northeast Nebraska. As
the front pushes through (late afternoon for northeast Nebraska/mid
evening for east-central Nebraska), RH will quickly increase, though
modest subsidence behind the front will also bring an initial push
of 20-30 mph northwesterly gusts.

Several shortwave disturbances will work to gradually damped the the
ridge, resulting in cooler temperatures within the post-frontal
airmass on Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to peak in the
40s, still approximately 10 degrees above average.

Additional concerns through the next few days will be the potential
for ice jams as continued mild temperatures promote river ice
breakup and movement. This increases the risk for ice to become
lodged and cause sudden rises in water levels. Accordingly, a Flood
Watch will remain in effect through Monday evening for the Platte,
Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers. River gauges and observational reports
will be monitored closely through this period.

Wednesday and Beyond...

From Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, generally
zonal flow aloft will persist across the region as a series of weak
disturbances pass through. Afternoon highs will largely remain in
the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows falling into the 20s to low
30s. These disturbances will bring periodic precipitation chances,
with 15-30% PoPs returning late Wednesday and continuing into the
weekend. Despite the extended stretch of PoPs, dry periods are
expected to be more common than wet ones.

Available moisture and forcing for ascent with these systems appears
limited, with the NBM indicating only a 40% probability of at least
0.05" of QPF through the work week. However, with overnight lows
frequently falling below freezing, precipitation type will need to
be monitored, as periods of light rain and snow are both possible.
Long-range guidance suggests the potential for a more robust system
to move across the central and southern Plains next weekend, though
confidence in details remain low. Model consensus and run-to-run
consistency continue to vary, with some solutions tracking the
system across the southern portion of the forecast area and other
keeping it entirely to the south. At this time, only about one-third
of EPS/EPS-AIFS and GEFS/AI-GEFS members bring the system into the
area, with 30-45% PoPs in place across southeast NE and southwest
IA. Trends will continue to be monitored as the system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Northwesterly winds will continue under 12 kts, backing
to southerly this evening. A few high clouds will pass by at
FL250 through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033-
     042>045-050>053-067.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

239
FXUS63 KGID 082140
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
340 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record warmth Monday as high temperatures soar into the 70s.
  Near-Critical fire weather conditions are also possible for
  at least a few hours due to low relative humidity and breezier
  winds.

- As a result of the unusual early February warmth, there
  remains the potential for ice jam flooding again Monday along
  our Nebraska counties residing along the Platte/Loup River
  systems (see separate hydrology section below for more).

- Low probability chances for precipitation (15-35%) return late
  Wednesday night/Thursday, though widespread or significant
  precipitation is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A well defined upper level low can be seen in water vapor
imagery this afternoon sliding across south central Nebraska.
This low has forced some mid-level cloud cover across the heart
of the CWA, with cameras indicating little more than virga
being observed despite the light returns evident on radar. As
this upper level low continues to slide southeast and exit the
local area tonight, expect a few high clouds to begin to filter
in across the region from the west, with these high clouds -
combined with a light westerly wind - expected to hold up
overnight lows a couple of degrees from this mornings near
freezing start.

With a slightly warmer start to the day, modest westerly
(downslope) flow, and partly sunny skies, new record high
temperatures appear to be a lock for tomorrow afternoon, and
raised high temperatures into the mid-70s for most locations.
With these warm temperatures and a relatively dry airmass ahead
of an approaching cold front, expect minimum RH values to
plummet below 20 percent across the majority of the local area,
prompting some fire weather concerns. Thankfully, winds - while
potentially breezy at times, will diminish in the pre-frontal
trough by mid/late afternoon, likely helping to limit more
critical conditions. As a result, will continue to advertise
near-critical fire weather concerns Monday afternoon for the
entire area, but opted against any sort of fire weather headline
for the time-being.

Expect the aforementioned cold front to cross the local area
Monday night with little fanfare, with cooler - but still
seasonably warm temperatures - settling in across the local area
for Tuesday along with a breezy north wind. The seasonably warm
temperatures will then likely linger through the end of the week
as a more zonal upper level pattern establishes itself across
the Central Plains. As a result, the subsequent upper level
disturbance is now expected to pass well south of the area over
the middle portion of the week, with the small pops we had in
the forecast over the past couple of days continuing to be
pushed farther and farther out in the period.

While some small pops creep into the area as early as Wednesday
night/Thursday, the better chances continue to look towards
maybe Friday afternoon/evening, albeit confidence is not
particularly high due to differences in the GFS/EC as well as
many ensemble members backing off on the potential for
precipitation over this period. Of more confidence are
temperatures, which should remain in that seasonably mild
category, with most days topping out in the 50s (with low`s
near/slightly below freezing) - which represents temperatures
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid February.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period.

Expect some increasing high clouds across the area through the
period with light westerly winds today shifting and becoming
more southwesterly overnight ahead of a cold front that will
cross the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, the pressure
gradient will increase across the area during the daytime hours
Monday, with breezy southwesterly winds...with gusts to near
20 KTS...possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- REGARDING LOCALIZED ICE JAM POTENTIAL ALONG THE PLATTE/LOUP
  RIVER SYSTEMS...MAINLY THROUGH MONDAY:

At this time, the only active/ongoing ice jam flooding we area
aware of across our central/south central NE counties is just
south and east of of the I-80/Hwy 281 interchange, where the
Platte River has flooded ditches near the interstate. Otherwise,
we are unaware of additional flooding on either the Platte or
Loup river systems.

That said, with continued well-above normal temperatures
(especially through Monday), ice melt and movement will surely
increase across the Platte/Loup River basins, which could
result in the possible formation of localized ice jams and
resultant flooding. Unlike "traditional" warm season flooding
from heavy rain that is typically easier to detect via radar
rainfall estimation and the network of river gages, ice jam
flooding is typically difficult to detect proactively/remotely
(unless it occurs very near a gauge). Thus we are very reliant
on emergency management, spotters etc. to keep us informed of
any ice jam flooding issues.

The potential ice jam flooding concerns will continue to be
highlighted in both our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) as
well as in a Special Weather Statement (SPSGID), with flood
advisories and warnings being reserved for known flooding
reported across the local area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

- RECORD WARM HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL:

Another round of unusually warm temperatures is expected across
the region Monday (Feb. 9). New record high temperatures are
expected to be established at both Hastings and Grand Island.

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE   | Current Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)
Feb. 9: 70 in 1996 | 74
---------------
Hastings, NE (HSI)
Feb. 9: 70 in 1954 | 74

- SIDE NOTE: Although occasional high temperatures in the 70s
  are not that uncommon at Grand Island/Hastings during the
  latter half of February, they are certainly less common during
  the FIRST HALF of the month. In fact, it has been 9 years now
  since both sites reached 70+ degrees during the FIRST HALF of
  February...since Feb. 10, 2017 when Grand Island soared to 77
  degrees and Hastings 74 degrees.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
HYDROLOGY...Rossi/Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Rossi/Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion