Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

409
FXUS63 KOAX 242330
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
530 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm through the remainder of the week.

- A mixture of rain and snow (40-60% chance) arrives into
  northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with any snow staying
  to the northeast of a line from Albion to Plattsmouth before
  exiting by 10 PM.

- Highs continue climbing through the remainder of the work
  week, peaking Friday in the 60s/70s, before cooler
  temperatures and additional shots at precipitation return this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a potent mid/upper
shortwave pushing southeastward from Ontario into the northern Great
Lakes region, squashing the ridge to its southwest and steering
northwesterly flow into eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Drilling down to
the surface, a recent hand analysis has a surface trough extending
from northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska before arcing up into
Minnesota, bringing a warmer westerly component to the winds thanks
to gentle downslope flow. Snowpack continues to gradually melt away
with the warmth, but it is still greatly affecting temperatures
where the heaviest snow fell. Along that stripe, highs are only
forecast to top out in the upper 30s in western into central Iowa,
while 40s and just over 50 degree highs will be the peak (not to
mention the mid-to-upper 50s to the north and south of the band).
What this snowmelt is also doing, is increasing the amount of
moisture in the lower boundary layer. Though it has to counteract
dry air advection at the surface, this increasing moisture has
already pushed dewpoints above the forecasted low for overnight. As
a result, patchy fog formation is possible -- especially for snow-
covered areas (20-30% chance).

Once the sun rises, any patchy fog that does develop will
dissipate and we`ll see cloud cover increasing in anticipation
of the pain weather-maker for the first half of the forecast. At
the surface, you`ll be able to track a surface low tracking
from northeast Wyoming to south-central Nebraska. As far as
precipitation goes, short-term models favor two areas -- one
staying as rain and kept close but just northeast of the surface
low, and the other as a largely snow along the Nebraska/South
Dakota border into far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The
overall lift in the column will largely be centered between the
strong warm air advection and positive vorticity advection from
the impinging shortwave, intersection the dendritic growth zone
at roughly 550 mb. Overall QPF has decreased with recent model
runs, but the location of the precipitation has shifted
southward over recent runs of model data. Focusing on the
northern area, most of any precipitation should fall as snow
(especially north near the SD border and into Iowa), but the
strong WAA in the low levels will push a shallow portion the
profile to around 32 degrees. This will eat away at snowfall
potential on the southern flank, but could still provide enough
ice to make elevated surfaces, sidewalks, and some bridges
slippery. Farther to the north, travelers heading north on I-29
will need to slow down for the half inch that falls in far
northwest Iowa.

Timing things out, dry air will get beat in northeast Nebraska just
after noon, while better rain/snow chances make it to eastern
Nebraska/Iowa closer to 5 PM. From there, any additional rain/snow
is quickly swept southeastward by 10 PM. While amounts on the ground
and in rain gauges won`t exceed 0.1", sub-freezing temperatures will
make any wet surfaces slick with black ice.

Thursday and Beyond:

Thursday through the remaining forecast has us back on the see-saw
for high temperatures, climbing to close out the work week
before being taken down a few pegs this weekend. Highs in the
50s/60s Thursday turn to 60s/70s Friday, with increasing winds
and some fire potential if we`re able to work away soil moisture
from the snow. Into the weekend, a pair of shortwaves are still
on track to push through Saturday and Sunday, the latter of
which appears to be our next chances for rain/snow, depending on
when it arrives. Beyond that, model solutions diverge into next
week, with decent potential for active weather through mid-week
shortwaves shed themselves off of a California coast cutoff
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Weakening
north winds this evening become light overnight. A gradual
veering of the winds towards the east then southeast is expected
through the morning into the early afternoon on Wednesday. An
approaching weather system results in lowering ceilings with
time but ceilings remain VFR. Rain and snow begins to enter the
region by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

919
FXUS63 KGID 242209
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
409 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures persist through the end of the week,
  with the overall warmest day coming on Friday. Expect elevated
  to near critical fire weather each afternoon for mainly W/SW
  portions of the area - though, similar to today, will need to
  watch for "sneaky" critical conditions far W/SW for Wed aftn.

- Rain showers are possible (20-50% chance) Wed aftn into the
  overnight. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder.
  Unfortunately, rain amounts look to be light at around a tenth
  of an inch, or less.

- Much cooler temperatures return this weekend, and still
  looking at the potential for some wintry precipitation
  (20-40%) off and on Sunday into Tuesday. Latest trends suggest
  this activity will be light and void of significant impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Fast WNW/NW mid-upper flow in place across the region today,
with a steady stream of copious mid to high level cloud cover
streaming through. Despite this, air temps have warmed nicely
into the 50s-60s, though the "feels like" is definitely lower
due to brisk wind. Had a bit more overlap of the warmth and wind
that W/SW portions of the area reached critical fire weather
conditions, but not expecting this to be an issue anymore today
given some low level cold air advection behind a weak front and
generally decreasing wind speeds. Expect quiet conditions
tonight - with any light returns on radar associated with the
thick mid-high clouds being representative of virga thanks to
aforementioned dry low levels.

Local area will remain in general mild weather pattern through
the week, locked in somewhat of a persistent transition zone
between much cooler 20s-40s to the N/NE and much warmer 60s-70s
over the High Plains of E CO and W KS. A weak disturbance riding
the baroclinic zone will contribute to at least modest chances
(up to 40-50% peak chances) for scattered precip beginning Wed
aftn and persisting into Wed night. Expect most of this to be
liquid, though can`t completely rule out some minor wet snow
over the far N/NE initially. Also can`t rule out a few rumbles
of thunder - as evident by inclusion of general thunder in SPC
Day 2 outlook. Felt this was still too minor to force inclusion
in the builder as most will not see it. Unfortunately, as we
really need the moisture, precip amounts are forecast to remain
light at only around tenth of an inch, or less.

Forecast remains dry otherwise through the end of the week.
Similar to today, will need to keep an eye on the potential for
a relatively narrow and/or brief window for tanking RHs amidst
moderately breezy and veering SW to WNW winds. This would be
mainly W of Hwy 183 and particularly close in Gosper and Furnas
Counties, mainly in the 21Z-00Z time frame. Will continue
mention in HWO and forego formal headlines, for now. Warmest day
of the week will be Friday, with widespread highs in the 60s to
lower 70s, but winds look to be quite weak. So a fantastic end
to the last full work week in February and a solid opportunity
to enjoy some nice weather.

Conditions turn much cooler (though really just back down to
around or slightly below normal) over the weekend into early
next week. Models still hint at some off and on light precip
potential (off and on chances around 20-40%), possibly of the
wintry and/or mix variety, off and on Sunday through Tuesday.
With that said, ensembles keep amounts on the lower side of
things, and nothing at this time screams significant
accumulations and/or impacts. IF there are to be any
accumulations, latest EPS favors Mon night into Tue the most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period. Expect copious amounts of mid to high
clouds, but CIGs should remain well above 5K ft. Clouds should
dissipate some late in the period. Winds will be breezy out of
the NW for a few more hours this afternoon, then decrease to
light and variable this evening. Primarily southerly winds are
expected late Wed AM into the afternoon. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion