Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

472
FXUS63 KOAX 282342
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
542 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slick roads this evening deteriorating tonight with travel
  becoming very difficult to impossible in some areas Saturday.
  If you have travel plans, consider delaying them.

- A mix of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain or drizzle will
  become increasingly widespread late this afternoon into
  evening. A change over to all snow occurs from north to south
  tonight into Saturday.

- The heaviest snow is expected from west-central and southwest
  Iowa into east-central and northeast Nebraska. Highest ice
  accumulations are forecast across southeast Nebraska into
  southwest Iowa.

- Both the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory have
  been expanded.

- Cold settles in for the rest of the weekend and the start of
  next week. Temperatures will warm up Tuesday, persisting
  through the end of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Rest of this afternoon through Saturday night:

The going forecast remains largely on track with minor changes
made to the snow and ice accumulations, and the counties
included in the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory. More details below.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a vigorous mid-level
trough over the northern Rockies, which is forecast to undergo
considerable amplification as it moves into the central part of
the U.S. on Saturday. Recent model data have come into better
agreement in the track of the associated surface low with that
feature moving along the KS-OK border tonight and then through
eastern KS and northern or central MO on Saturday. The models
have trended colder with the boundary-layer conditions to the
north of the surface low track across our area, which results in
a potentially longer duration of snow for some areas, and
associated higher snow totals.

Warm advection attendant to a weak mid-level disturbance moving
through SD has contributed to a mix of light snow, sleet, and
freezing drizzle across parts of the area so far today. Webcams
in northeast NE and west-central IA show a dusting of snow on
the ground with roads becoming slick in those areas. Continued
warm advection will support a gradually expanding shield of
precipitation this evening, which will start out light before
becoming heavier into the overnight hours.

Model soundings suggest that the depth of the saturated layer
aloft may decrease late this afternoon into evening before
deepening into the favorable ice/snow-growth zone overnight into
Saturday. As such, precipitation will likely remain a mix of
light snow, sleet, and light freezing rain or drizzle into this
evening, which will contribute to deteriorating road conditions
across much of the area. By late this evening and continuing
through the overnight hours into Saturday, a change over to all
snow is expected to occur from north to south.

That changeover process remains complicated as the models
depict varying locations of the transition zone between solid
and freezing/liquid precipitation temporarily becoming quasi-
stationary along or just to the south of I-80 overnight into
Saturday morning. That uncertainty is captured nicely by the
12z HREF, which indicates the greatest variability in member-
accumulated snow along a line from Wahoo through the southern
part of the Omaha metro to between Oakland, IA and Red Oak, IA.
As such, confidence in snowfall amounts is lowest along that
axis. To the north of that axis, it still appears that a band
of heavy snow will develop with the highest accumulations of up
to 6-12" expected in the Harlan, IA and Onawa, IA vicinities,
decreasing with westward extent in east-central and northeast
NE. To the south of the transition zone, snow totals from a
trace up to three inches are forecast with ice accumulations up
to 0.1-0.15".

Winds will strengthen through the day Saturday with gusts up to
35 to 40 mph expected during the afternoon. The highest snow
rates are expected to precede the strongest winds, which will
limit the potential for true blizzard conditions. Nonetheless,
plan on considerable blowing and drifting snow Saturday into
Saturday night, which coupled with the preceding ice
accumulation will lead to very difficult to impossible travel
in some areas. Temperatures could hover around the freezing mark
along the KS border with precipitation remaining light rain
into Saturday morning. But even there, the potential exists for
flash freeze conditions by late morning into Saturday afternoon
as colder air surges south.

Given the above considerations, the Winter Storm Warning has
been expanded to include Douglas, Sarpy, Dodge, and Stanton
Counties with the Winter Weather Advisory expanded across the
remainder of our area.


Sunday into next week:

Another short-wave trough is forecast to move through the
northern and central Plains Sunday night into Monday, leading to
another chance (20-50% PoPs) of light snow, especially in
southeast NE and southwest IA. Otherwise, the primary hazard
for this time period is the cold weather. Highs only in the
teens and 20s on Sunday are expected to warm slightly into the
20s by Monday with overnight lows in the single digits to around
15. The coldest temperatures are expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning when some locations could approach zero.
Overnight wind chills will be in the single digits above and
below zero.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected in the Tuesday-
Thursday timeframe with highs in 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overcast skies are observed across the forecast area this
evening with VFR and MVFR ceilings. Expecting ceilings and
visibilities to deteriorate soon from VFR to MVFR as a wintry
mix moves in, while widespread IFR and LIFR arrives at
terminals after 06z with continued snow/wintry precip mix. Have
refined arrival times of wintry precip mix at all three
terminals as well as the expected changeover to snow. Winds will
become gusty from the north northwest after 15z at KOFK and
KLNK, and after 18z at KOMA with continued snow, resulting in
reduced visibilities. Snow is expected to end at all three
terminals by 00z Sunday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     NEZ012-015-018-032>034-044-045-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     NEZ011-016-017-030-031-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-
     088>093.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     IAZ043-055-056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW/Mead
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

071
FXUS63 KGID 282349
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory was expanded a row of counties south
  and west into Buffalo and Dawson counties.

- A period of a mixture of precipitation, preceded by freezing
  drizzle this evening will create some light ice accumulations
  and glazing prior to any accumulating snow.

- Heavier snow amounts remain more likely north/east of Grand
  Island. Current forecast of about 3" for maximum amounts but
  there could be some locally higher amounts in a narrow band.
  Western/southern areas will see little accumulation.

- Strong winds late Saturday morning through evening will cause
  blowing snow in some areas.

- A 2nd round of light snow Monday may drop an inch or two
  during the morning hours and cause minor impacts to morning
  commute.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

As mentioned in the key messages, the Winter Weather Advisory
was expanded to include a few more counties on the southern and
western side. Temperatures are slightly colder than expected and
though freezing temperatures have warmed as far north as the
Nebraska border, the tightening baroclinicity will be a focus
for some additional ice potential along the Highway 6 corridor.
Initially precipitation is very light such as drizzle, light
freezing drizzle or flurries...sort of what we are seeing now
across the area. That is expected to continue through the
evening but expand in coverage/intensity after 10 pm and
overnight with the upper level trough approaching. A steady
east/west band of precipitation will develop along/either side
of I-80 with the heaviest precipitation after 1 AM, with
precipitation on the south side starting as mixture of light
freezing rain/sleet. North of I-80 precipitation will largely
fall as snow but could have some mix initially. Farther south,
near the Kansas border and down into north central Kansas,
precipitation tonight will be mostly liquid in nature.
Temperatures to south will hold steady and only drop off very
late tonight.

Saturday will evolve from a messy mixture of precipitation
early in the morning, to very windy and cold conditions, then to
eventually some clearing later in the day. Whatever mixture of
precipitation is ongoing early will quickly changeover as a
surge of cold air pushing in to the area as the surface low
wraps up to the southeast. Far southwest areas, such as Rooks
and Osborne counties, should see very little precipitation as a
dry slot impacts that area. Farther north, a 2-3 hour period of
precipitation will heaviest prior to 9 AM but then should
quickly wrap up by early afternoon. As this happens, strong
northwest winds will push across the area between 8 and 10 AM
gusting over 40 mph and resulting blowing snow, reducing
visibility and some drifting snow in areas where 2 to 3 inches
of snow falls. The wind will last all afternoon and into the
evening hours and drop off to under 30 mph gusts after 10 pm
Saturday. Have kept some blowing snow in the forecast due to
wind in eastern through the evening. Temperatures will go
nowhere Saturday and either hold steady or fall some through the
day. Single digit wind chills in the afternoon will turn to
below zero wind chills for some areas Saturday night. This is
certainly the coldest couple days of the your cold weather
season.

Sunday is a dry day, but cold with passing clouds. Fortunately
winds will drop off but with highs in the 20s, temperatures will
be 20 degrees or more below normal.

A quick moving wave will slip across the area later Sunday night
and Monday morning. Good model consistency that light snow will
develop as the wave passes from west-to-east, centered on
Monday morning. Precipitation will be light, but the steady,
fluffy nature of the snow could easily add up to an inch or two.
Locations between I-80 and I-70 are favored at this time for
the accumulating snow. Winds will be light thankfully. However,
the timing of the snow may cause some minor morning commute
impacts.

The rest week remains chilly with highs in the 30s to lower 40s
as the region sits on the west of the large trough funneling
cold air from the north. No significant precipitation is in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Southeast winds will become northerly by 12z. Winds will
strengthen by 15z and become gusty by 18z. Wind gusts up to near
30 knots are expected during the afternoon but winds may gust up
to around 40 knots at times. There is some uncertainty with
precip type between 03z and 09z and it may be a mixture of rain,
freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The transition to all snow is
expected by 12z with snow possible until around 15z. Blowing
snow is expected beginning around 15z to 18z when winds
increase. Blowing snow is expected through the afternoon even
after the snow stops falling. Ceilings are expected to drop even
further by 03z and stay below VFR until around 15z to 18z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
     Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-073>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion