Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

161
FXUS63 KOAX 302041
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
241 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with highs in the low 40s east of the Missouri
  River, and mid to upper 40s west. A few spots along our far
  west could hit 50F.

- Warm temperatures continue Wednesday with breezy winds,
  followed by a brief cool down in the 30s for Thursday and
  Friday.

- Dry conditions continue for the extended forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

20z RAP objective analysis at H5 shows northwesterly flow over
much of the central CONUS, while off to the east the longwave
trof and strong 498dam closed low spins over eastern Quebec,
and to the west ridging dominates. Within the H5 northwesterly
flow, a weak wave is observed trekking through Nebraska into
Iowa. The feature has resulted in a few high based clouds, but
nothing more notable than that. Winds have been light too across
most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with the lone
exception of northeast Nebraska where slightly deeper mixing and
a tighter pressure gradient are observed.

Sunny conditions are forecast for the remainder of the afternoon
with highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s east of the Missouri
River, and mid to upper 40s west. A few spots across our far west
could hit 50F. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight
across far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 20s for most locations.

By Wednesday, H8 warm air advection overspreads much of Nebraska
resulting in high temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s over much
central into southeast Nebraska. Slightly cooler temperatures in the
low to mid 40s are expected for the rest of the area. A strong
wave will eject from northern Manitoba southeast toward the
Great Lakes vicinity throughout the day. The associated sfc
feature`s cold front will extend to the west, crossing the
forecast area from north to south by Wednesday evening. Winds
will be breezy too in the vicinity of the front at 25 to 35 mph,
tapering off by the late evening. Low level convergence along
the sfc boundary may be enough to generate some low clouds, but
dry conditions are expected. Lows Wednesday night reach the mid
teens in northeast Nebraska and far western Iowa to low 20s for
the rest of the area.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The western CONUS H5 ridge will deamplify somewhat on Thursday as a
strong shortwave off the coast of southwest California tracks
northeast. A few waves are seen ejecting from the eastern periphery
of the ridge near the Rockies. However, model guidance keeps these
disturbances well away from the area. Sfc ridging moves over
portions of the Northern Plains too, helping suppress any PoP
chances for Thursday and Friday. Behind Wednesday`s front, highs
Thursday and Friday cool to the 30s.

This "cool down" will be short lived though as strong H8 warm air
advection moves over a large portion of the Northern and Central
Plains by the weekend and into early next week. Highs Saturday warm
to the 40s for most locations, with widespread 50s across eastern
Nebraska by Sunday. The warmth continues through at least Monday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance is also in fairly good agreement
that dry weather prevails for the duration of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals late this morning.
A few models hint at a low cloud deck developing between 2,500
to 3,500 feet after 00z, affecting all three terminals. For now,
sky coverage should keep ceilings in VFR range, but can`t rule
out a brief drop to MVFR range with the cloud deck. Breezy
northwest winds will affect KOFK late this afternoon, largely
subsiding by 03z. Winds at all three terminals become
west southwesterly after 12z. Have added low level wind shear at
all three terminals from 01z to 05z given increased confidence
for occurrence.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

947
FXUS63 KGID 301740
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1140 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions are favored to finish
  out 2025 and ring in 2026.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 410 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast this morning as
generally mild temperatures and dry weather is expected over
the course of the next week.

For today, expect a few high clouds to stream across the region
as northwest flow aloft continues. As the surface...northwest
winds will also predominate...and could gust to near 20 mph
during the afternoon hours. This westerly downslope flow will
allow temperatures to soar into the upper 40s and lower 50s,
which is about 10-15 degrees above normal for late December.

Continued mild weather and light westerly breezes are expected
to finish out the calendar year on Wednesday, before a weak
disturbance brings additional cloud cover and slightly cooler
(yet still seasonably mild) temperatures to the region to end
the week. No significant chance for precipitation appears in
store for the local area over the course of the next week with
a few hints in long term guidance that some unsettled weather
could return towards the end of next week...although ensemble
guidance is still somewhat conflicting over this time period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Will keep it short and sweet as there`s simply not a whole lot
to talk about...just more mild and dry weather to round out the
month/year and start 2026. Outside of a few short stints of
winter over the past 30-45 days...its largely been a
continuation of late fall, and it looks like it`s more of the
same general pattern for the next 7-10 days.

In the short term, the main story will be the significant jump
in temperatures from today into Tuesday, thanks to departing
high pressure and return of downsloping, westerly winds. Highly
amplified upper pattern - featuring significant height
depressions from around Hudson Bay into New England, and
positive height anomalies over the N Rockies, will largely
persist over the next few days, with only a slight eastward
nudge in the ridge/trough pair. However, this will be enough to
allow above to well-above average temps to once again spill onto
the central Plains - aided by downsloping of dry low level
airmass over largely snow free ground of western and central
Nebraska/Kansas. Plentiful sunshine will also help. Thus, after
another chilly morning in the teens, expect afternoon temps to
warm nicely into the upper 40s to lower 50s, amidst a seasonably
modest Wrly breeze. Lows will only fall into the 20s Tuesday
night, which will give temps a higher launching pad for New
Year`s Eve Wednesday. Latest blend gives the entire CWA highs in
the 50s for the last day of 2025, but wouldn`t at all be
surprised if exp. W/SW zones overachieve into the 60s. This has
been a reoccurring theme in this general pattern past few weeks.

The highly amplified pattern will maintain fast NW upper flow
through the central third of the CONUS and allow for frequent
clipper-like systems to roll through mid to late week. One such
wave looks to funnel some slightly cooler air behind it for New
Year`s Day, but the system itself looks to remain dry for south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. It`s really not even
much, if any, temp drop at 850mb so much as it is a change in
low level wind direction from Wrly to a less efficient
mixing/warming SSE wind. So it`ll be slight temp drop for
central and eastern zones Wed into Thu, but far W/SW zones may
actually be just as warm. Another front will turn winds to a
cooler NErly direction for Friday, but again, the push of cool
air is modest for this time of year.

Southerly to westerly low level flow returns for the weekend, so
it`s a "wash, rinse, repeat" type of pattern with yet another
warmup. Ensembles are in decent agreement that some of the
warmest air of the next 7-10 days will come over the weekend,
with one, if not both days, featuring highs in the 50s/60s and
lows only in the 20s. Pattern may gradually trend cooler/closer
to normal over the span on the first full week of January, but
any significant downturns and/or precipitation chances appear
virtually non-existent over the next 7-10 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through the period with only limited and
occasional high level cloud cover. Winds will be a bit breezy
out of the WNW this afternoon, but weaken and back this evening.
Winds Wednesday AM should be SWrly 6-11kt. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion