43°F
Updated:
11/13/2025
01:57:12am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
784 FXUS63 KOAX 130447 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1047 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued warmth into Saturday. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. - High to potentially very high fire danger Friday afternoon. - 50-60% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely be rain, but there is about a 10% chance of accumulating snow in the northern reaches of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 A pleasant afternoon has developed across the Corn Belt this afternoon with widespread 50s and lower-60s developing under mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds are streaming in from the northwest as the sfc high pressure axis passes through the CWA from west to east. This has also kept wind speeds under ten knots. They`re currently out of the north, but will develop and easterly component this evening and then a southerly component by Thursday morning. .THURSDAY... Temps fall to near 40F and the upper 30s with light winds and re-cleared skies again to start the day. Convergent southerly surface winds direct surface moisture into the area and lead to minor forcing for ascent. A mostly cloudy morning won`t be enough to stop temps from climbing 3-6 degrees higher than today. .FRIDAY... H5 ridging reaches it`s Nebraskan pinnacle on Friday with heights about 15dam higher than climatology. That puts temperatures in the 99th percentile, at least in the western half of the forecast area. High temps there on Friday are anticipated to manage middle to upper-70s and record numbers. A significant spread of temps is expected with temps in western Iowa peaking only in the mid- to upper 60s. Standing records sit at 75-1990/Lincoln, 76-1990/Omaha, and 72-2001/Norfolk. .THE WEEKEND... A weak cold front is driven through the area early Saturday morning, resulting in another round of northwesterly winds. Temps will only slip a handful of degrees. The front will pass through with no precip and only a few hours of reduced sunlight. Sunday will be another ten degrees cooler or so with highs primarily in the 50s. .EARLY NEXT WEEK... A closed low off the California coast this weekend will work through the Intermountain West and sweep through the Central Plains on Monday. Timing and placement of the low still have some disagreement among 12Z global guidance. This could have implications on p-type. The EPS (Euro ensemble) has accumulating snow in significantly fewer members than does the GEFS (GFS ensemble). Will stick with the current forecast of a 10% chance of accumulating snow in any part of the forecast area with northern reaches deserving the best bet. Most locations are likely to stick with a (very cold) rain (50-60% PoPs). Temps behind the departing wave will be cooler. Expect highs to lag seasonal norms with numbers peaking in the mid-40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period at the terminals. Expect some passing high clouds tonight, increasing in coverage heading into sunrise. Cloud cover will decrease in the afternoon with skies clearing out around 00-02Z. Light and variable winds are expected overnight, becoming southerly after sunrise. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
643 FXUS63 KGID 130542 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record to record high temperatures are expected on Friday. - Precipitation may return to the area on Monday; however, there is uncertainty on precipitation type. - Temperatures will warm up through Friday (highs mostly in the 70s) then will decrease through Tuesday (highs in the 40s and 50s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Today through tonight... A broad upper trough is over the eastern half of the country with the western half under an upper ridge. Light and somewhat variable winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area are currently in the 60s and lower 70s. Winds will become southerly this evening/overnight with low temperatures tonight in the mid 30s to low 40s. Thursday through Friday night... The upper ridge will move a little further east on Thursday. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will mostly be out of the southwest on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm up Thursday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s with a surface trough across western Nebraska and western Kansas. Winds will become more westerly Thursday night with low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper ridge will be more centered over the southern and central Plains on Friday with winds across the area mostly out of the southwest. The surface trough will also expand over more of the area with high temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 70s. Record high temperatures are expected for some areas on Friday. The current record high for Grand Island for Friday is 71 degrees and the current expected high temperature is 77 degrees. The current record high for Hastings for Friday is 74 degrees and the current expected high temperature is 75 degrees. Winds will become more westerly Friday night with low temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Saturday through Sunday night... A cold front will push into the area on Saturday as an upper trough moves over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Winds will be out of the north with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday night will drop into the low/mid 30s to low 40s. A surface high will be centered across eastern Nebraska and will expand westward across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Sunday. This will contribute to high temperatures on Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low temperatures Sunday night will be slightly warmer than the previous night. Monday through Tuesday... More active weather, as well as more uncertainty, returns to the forecast on Monday. An upper low is expected to move over the central Plains on Monday but models differ on the location of the upper low. This low will increase precipitation chances on Monday (up to around 50%). The location of the upper low will determine how cold the temperatures are which will determine precipitation type. The ECMWF model keeps the upper low further north over Nebraska with temperatures across the area on Monday well above freezing with precipitation falling as rain. The GFS model brings the upper low over Kansas with temperatures dropping to near or below freezing across northern portions of the area (mainly north of I-80) with frozen precipitation possible. These models bring a wide range of possible high temperatures for Monday. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The upper trough will move east of the region on Tuesday; however, a broad surface high will be over the area. This will result in high temperatures on Tuesday in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some passing high clouds and winds generally less than 10 KTs throughout. Latest model data and VWP indicating a very weak LLJ is across the area late tonight, but main impact will be to keep surface winds steady out of the south overnight as LLWS is too marginal to mention in TAFs. For Thursday...light surface winds will continue thanks to a weak surface pressure gradient along with ample high level cloud cover having minimal impacts at either terminal. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...SR
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