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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


814
FXUS63 KOAX 230339
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1039 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with highs reaching the
  upper 80s to low 90s by Monday.

- Widely scattered showers and storms are possible through the
  holiday weekend, with a strong storm or two possible Sunday.
  Dry periods will outnumber wet ones.

- Periodic precipitation chances continue Tuesday through the
  remainder of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Saturday through Monday...

A mid-level low pivoting across the northern Plains this evening
pushed a cold front eastward through the area. A broken line of
thunderstorms developed along the front, with a few stronger
embedded cores. Storms will continue moving east and should exit the
area shortly after midnight.

Surface high pressure briefly slides across the region Saturday as
mid-level ridging builds into the central and southern Plains,
bringing a warming trend through the holiday weekend. Highs are
expected to reach the mid 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, and
upper 80s to low 90s Monday. Mostly dry conditions will prevail,
though low-end, near-daily shower and storm chances remain possible
as weak waves pass through the region.

The first chance arrives Saturday evening, mainly across northeast
Nebraska where a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Weak
shear and modest instability should limit storm organization.
Chances increase slightly Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak
surface trough moves near the NE/SD border. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
and bulk shear near 30 kts may support a strong storm or two, with
the best chances across northeast NE into southwest IA. Damaging
wind gusts (up to 65 mph) and hail (up to 1 inch) are the primary
hazards. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this
area. Additional widely scattered showers or storms will be possible
Monday as temperatures warm (likely to convective temperatures) and
instability increases, though weak shear and limited forcing should
keep the chance limited. Overall, dry periods will greatly outweigh
wet ones through the holiday weekend, but those with outdoor plans
should stay weather aware.

Tuesday and Beyond...

A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move onshore across the
western CONUS early next week and slowly deepen as it shifts
eastward. Moisture return will increase ahead of this system, with
highs generally in the low 80s through much of the work week.

Periodic precipitation chances return late Tuesday and continue
through the remainder of the workweek as several weak disturbances
move through the region. PoPs generally range from 20-50%, though
timing and locations will likely be refined as guidance better
resolves each wave. No particular day stands out for severe weather
at this time, as instability appears modest and stronger
shear/forcing look displaces from the area. GEFS and EPS machine-
learning guidance also keep the better severe probabilities focused
to our south and west. A shift in disturbance tracks could change
this, but for now, the severe weather signal remains limited.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms and MVFR conditions have formed
across far eastern Nebraska this evening, likely impacting KOMA
before clearing from west to east by 23/01-02Z. Afterwards, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period as ceilings gradually break up and improve
through the evening. A few southwesterly gusts up to 18 kts may
occur before winds calm (under 12 kts) into the evening and
become more westerly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


684
FXUS63 KGID 222349
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to isolated storms are possible (15-25%) Saturday
  and Sunday night across portions of south central Nebraska. A
  few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe capable of
  producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected Sunday Onwards
  with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

- Highs in the 80s on Memorial day with breezy winds and a low
  (15-20%) chance for storms Monday afternoon/evening.

- Scattered, off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night
  onwards though the details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This afternoon and Tonight

A cold front currently located near Highway 81 continues to make its
way across the forecast area this afternoon. A few lingering showers
continue near-just behind the front. The axis of greatest
instability shifting east of the area with the cold front makes it
doubtful that these showers/storms will do much before exiting the
area over the next couple of hours. Clearing skies this evening and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s overnight.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday climb into the 70s as a passing shortwave trough
moves into the Plains. Partly cloudy skies and light winds make for
an overall pleasant day on Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave
trough will aid the development of a few scattered thunderstorms
over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon-evening. While inhibition
increases around sunset and results in these storms weakening, it
remains plausible that a couple of these storms linger just long
enough to make it into far northwestern portions of the area before
dissipating Saturday night.


Sunday and Memorial Day...

Southwesterly flow aloft transitions to a more west-northwesterly
flow pattern on Sunday. At the surface, highs climb into the 80s
aided by breezy southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Scattered
shower/thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon-evening
along the surface trough/dryline in west-central Nebraska. CAPE and
shear would be sufficient for storms to become strong to marginally
severe.  These storms look to mainly impact northwestern portions of
the area. Any storm would gradually dissipate after sunset as
convective inhibition increases.

Warmth continues on Memorial Day as temperatures climb into the 80s
during the afternoon. Another breezy day is expected with southerly
winds gusting 20-30mph. Similar to this weekend, a few scattered
thunderstorms may develop across portions of Nebraska. Details on
timing of any storm will become clearer as we get closer (likely
afternoon/evening).

Tuesday Onwards...

Troughing moves into the western U.S. on Tuesday and subsequently
stalls out, placing the area under southwesterly flow-weak ridging.
Near to above normal temperatures are expected, with highs generally
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This pattern also results in scattered,
off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling, and "fairly high"
confidence in VFR visibility throughout the period. There is
also fairly high confidence in precipitation-free weather...as
any shower/weak thunderstorm potential late Saturday afternoon
currently appears to remain roughly 40+ miles north and/or west
of KGRI/KEAR through the valid period.

The only caveat to VFR(visibility-wise) is a small chance
(perhaps 20% chance) of light fog forming very late
tonight/early Sat AM...but this probability appears too low to
acknowledge in TAFs at this time. As for ceiling, much of late
tonight into Saturday daytime will likely feature scattered-to-
broken mid-level clouds, with any ceiling mainly at-or-above 10K
ft. AGL.

Winds will be a minimal issue, with sustained speeds commonly
at-or-below 10KT, and overall a light/variable direction
prevailing most of tonight into the first part of Saturday
daytime. Right away these first few hours this evening direction
will prevail westerly, with direction then more southerly late
Saturday morning-afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion