Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

903
FXUS63 KOAX 062347
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
647 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impactful snow is expected tonight into Tuesday morning with
  2-4" accumulations likely (70-80% chance) within a narrow
  band. Localized 6" amounts are possible (20-40% chance).
  Expect some area roads to become slippery/snow-covered,
  slowing the Tuesday morning commute.

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and
  storm chances from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Remainder of this afternoon through Tuesday:

A very narrow band of light rain is being observed as of early
afternoon across portions of far northeast NE and west-central IA,
driven largely by the response to frontogenesis in the 850-700-mb
layer, per objective analysis. Latest CAM data suggest that band
will drift southeast this afternoon into evening with only light
precipitation amounts expected.

By late this evening into the overnight hours, the models
indicate the broadening and intensification of the existing
precipitation band, owing to strengthening frontogenetical
forcing and decreasing static stability. Initial precipitation
type would be rain, which then mixes with snow before changing
over to all snow overnight. Uncertainty still exists in the
exact placement of the two to three county-wide band with the
current best guess of a centerline extending from Atlantic, IA
to Blair to West Point.

The overall setup is rather impressive, featuring a deep layer of
saturation and upward vertical motion that extends into the
dentritic-growth zone. Moreover, there are indications of weak
convective instability atop of the mesoscale updraft, which would
enhance snowfall rates. A few lightning strikes are even
possible. In fact, the 12z run of the HREF indicates a several-
hour period between about 1 AM and 5 AM where there is a 50-70%
chance localized snow rates of at least 1"/hr. In regard to
amounts, this forecast update will increase totals to 2-4"
within the center of the band (70-80% chance) with localized
amounts of up to 6" appearing possible (20-40% chance).

Given the uncertainty in exactly where the snow band will setup, we
have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for a broader area
from 10 PM tonight until 1 PM Tuesday. If confidence increases in
the snowband location, and that some higher end amounts (6-8") are
likely, then an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning would be
considered for a smaller area. The main impact will be to roads,
which are expected to become slippery/snow-covered in areas of
the highest snow rates. Plan for slower commute times Tuesday
morning.

Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s on Tuesday in areas
that receive the higher snowfall amounts with 40s and 50s expected
elsewhere.


Tuesday night through Wednesday night:

A vigorous, mid/upper-level low will move along the U.S./Canadian
border this period with an associated cold front moving into the
area Wednesday before stalling. Warm advection and moisture
transport occurring along a 50+ mph low-level jet will result in
weak air mass destabilization within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Those processes will support increasing shower and isolated
thunderstorm chances, especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night (maximum PoPs of 40-60%).

Some downward mixing of the low-level just will lead to windy
conditions Wednesday with gusts up to 35 mph. It now appears
that the atmosphere may end up a little more moist with more
cloud cover, limiting fire danger to the high category in
northeast NE. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to
low 70s.


Thursday and Friday:

The global models continue to indicate a low-amplitude disturbance
moving through the northern Plains Thursday into Thursday night. The
glancing influence of that feature coupled with strengthening low-
level convergence and warm advection along to the north of the
frontal system stalled across the area will result in a good chance
(40-80% PoPs) of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
across the southern half of the area.

There is some model signal that the front may be temporarily be
pushed south of the area on Friday. The current forecast will
maintain 20-50% PoPs.

Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast both days.


Saturday and Sunday:

The ensemble and deterministic models all indicate the movement of a
large-scale trough onto the West Coast this period; however,
there are considerable differences in the structure of the
broader trough, and the movement of embedded vorticity maxima.
Despite these differences, surface lee troughing is expected to
deepen along the High Plains, which in turn will enhance the
poleward flux of increasing moisture content through the Great
Plains. The moisture return will contribute to an unstable air
mass, which combined with forcing for ascent associated with any
weak disturbances ejecting out of the western U.S. trough, will
support continued shower and thunderstorm chances. The various
machine-learning models indicate some severe weather potential
(5-10% chance) at this time.

Temperatures are expected to trend warmer with highs in the 60s and
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Main concern remains timing and placement of snow band late this
evening and into Tuesday morning. Could see a brief mix of rain
and snow before it switches over to all snow with IFR to LIFR
conditions expected in the heaviest snow. Did introduce mention
at LNK with guidance trending toward at least some light snow
clipping them, but currently only expecting restrictions via
ceilings. Totals are expected to be around 1-2" at OFK and 3-4"
at OMA, but it would take much of a shift of the heaviest band
to see 4+ at OMA. As snow is falling, expect winds to be out of
the east to northeast around 10-12 kts and once snow ends
around 12-14Z, winds will become southeasterly, gusting 20-25
kts through the remainder of the period. Some guidance hints at
lingering fog/drizzle following the snow, but confidence in that
occurring remains low. If it does, could see lingering
visibility of 3-5SM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
     Tuesday for NEZ033-034-044-045-051>053.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
     Tuesday for IAZ055-056-069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

421
FXUS63 KGID 070000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible this
  afternoon across portions of north central Kansas.

- Rain mixed with snow is expected tonight into Tuesday morning.
  Any snowfall accumulations will be a half inch or less.

- There is a marginal threat for severe storms Wednesday
  afternoon and evening primarily affecting north central Kansas
  and portions of far southern Nebraska.

- Rain and storm chances increase Thursday through Sunday with
  chances up to 80% across portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A broad upper trough extends over the Northeast and Midwest with
Nebraska and Kansas along the backside of the trough. A surface high
out of Canada extends southward to Nebraska. Enhanced atmospheric
lift is over the area which has resulted in some rain showers moving
across northeast Nebraska. The surface high and cloud cover has kept
temperatures cooler across most of the area today, but a warm front
across Kansas is expected to move a little further northward this
afternoon. This front may reach into north central Kansas and may
result in temperatures across portions of Rooks, Osborne, and
Mitchell Counties warming up into the 70s. If the warm front makes
it that far north, humidity values may drop to around 20% to 25%
across portions of the above mentioned counties. Wind gusts across
north central Kansas may get up to around 20 MPH which may create
near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. High
temperatures today are expected to range from the 40s across far
northern portions of the forecast area with temperatures across far
southern areas possibly reaching into the 70s. Upper level lift will
increase across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas tonight as temperatures drop to around or below freezing.
This will likely result in a mix of rain and snow across most of the
forecast area. Any snow accumulations are expected to be a half inch
or less.

The cooler air is expected to linger across most of the area on
Tuesday with rain and snow showers lingering into the morning hours.
There is some uncertainty in regards to high temperatures on Tuesday
due to uncertainties with how long the cooler air will linger before
a warm front lifts northward across the area. Low temperatures
Tuesday night in the wake of the warm front will be mostly in the
40s. An upper trough will be over the northern Rocky Mountains and
will extend to the Upper Midwest on Wednesday with it extending
southward over Nebraska into Kansas. A cold front associated with
this trough will push into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures are
expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday with a surface
trough present ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop along this front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increased
CAPE, wind shear, lapse rates, and atmospheric lift will result in a
marginal threat for severe storms. This threat will mainly be for
north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

Cooler air will continue pushing into the area on Thursday but there
are some uncertainties with how far south the cold front will get.
Rain, with possibly some thunderstorms, is expected along and behind
the front. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to range from
the upper 50s to 70s. The cooler air will remain in place on Friday
with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Shortwave
troughs are expected to move over the area on Saturday allowing for
more chances (65% to 80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
are generally expected to warm up on Saturday although there is some
uncertainty to the degree of warm up due to moisture and cloud
cover. More chances (35% to 65%) of showers and thunderstorms are
present on Sunday as more shortwaves move over the area. Sunday may
end up being the warmest day of the forecast with highs in the 70s
and 80s with winds increasing out of the south to southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports

IFR ceilings and "possibly" some precipitation will impact both
KGRI and KEAR this forecast. Mid/high clouds will give way to
MVFR ceilings initially, but then IFR ceilings as low as 500
feet overnight as moisture increases aboard easterly winds. For
now have kept the PROB30 of light snow/rain showers and sleet,
but short term model trends are suggesting that to be east of
Grand Island and Kearney. It is pretty narrow axis of
precipitation overall, so confidence is low in the likelihood of
measurable precipitation at either airport. Aside from that,
lower clouds remain through Tuesday morning as winds veer a bit
to the southeast with time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion