Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

416
FXUS63 KOAX 241739
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday (60-90%).

- A few severe storms may be possible Saturday afternoon-evening
  (5-10%) and Sunday late afternoon-night (15-20%).

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Today through Monday...

 Northerly winds behind yesterday`s stormy cold front will continue
to bring cooler air into the region today. By noon temperatures
had only reached the mid 50s across the forecast area.

A peek at Water vapor imagery reveals a large low pressure system
spinning along the southern Canadian border to our north. Meanwhile,
a second Low is attempting to form out of the Colorado Rockies. High
pressure over the Central Plains, which kept us dry today, will
shift east by Saturday. Behind it, a cold front will develop,
linking the two lows.

Showers and a few storms will likely develop along this boundary to
our west late tonight and into early Saturday morning. Rain is
expected to drift eastward through the day Saturday, with the
greatest chance for showers over northeast Nebraska. While shear
looks to be moderate, at 40-50 kts over northwest portions of the
area, instability of only a couple hundred J/Kg may be just
enough to support a few strong storms. On the other hand, a few
forecast soundings indicate some near surface dry air that
could inhibit convection. Despite this, several CAMs indicate a
strong to severe storm or two may be possible, especially over
eastern Nebraska, Saturday afternoon and evening. This potential
is also highlighted by a Marginal Risk (5-10%) by the SPC.

A reinforcing upper level shortwave helps the surface low become
more well established on Sunday. The boundary that moved through on
Saturday will be lifted back north as a warm front Sunday, bringing
another round of showers and storms. Strong to severe storms will be
possible during the late afternoon and into the overnight hours, as
the low tracks from southwest to northeast. The threat of severe
weather will greatly depend on the track that the low takes, and a
could be inhibited by daytime precipitation, or the warm front not
drifting quite far enough to the north.  However, current model runs
show 40-50 kts of bulk shear and 500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE,
suggesting plenty of potential. Therefore, SPC has placed us in
a Slight Risk (15-20%) for severe storms Sunday, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

Temperatures are expected to be just above normal, in the upper
60s and low 70s through the weekend. Overnight lows will remain
above freezing, in the 40s tonight, and 40s and 50s Saturday
night.

Showers and storms will linger through Monday morning and into the
afternoon as the low continues to track northeast. Widespread
beneficial rainfall is expected. LREF GrandEnsemble
probabilities peg the forecast area with a 45-70% probability of
at least an inch of rain from the weekend through Monday, the
greatest chance being over northeast Nebraska. Temperatures will
dip a few degrees behind the system. Afternoon highs will top
out in the upper 50s in northeast Nebraska and near 70 across
far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Off and on shower and thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday and into
the latter half of next week, as a handful of shortwaves rumble
through the Central Plains. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler
than we`ve had recently, but still fairly close to normal, in the
mid 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
may occasionally gust up to 15-20 kts this afternoon, before
diminishing and veering to the southeast by this evening.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move in from the
west Saturday. While exact timing and location of showers and
storms is uncertain at this time, the best chance for rain will
be after 12Z at KOFK, and after 18Z at KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

473
FXUS63 KGID 241758
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this
  afternoon across mainly Dawson, Gosper, and Furnas Counties.

- Marginally severe storms may develop Saturday and Sunday with
  large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

- The highest rain and storm chances (70% to around 95%) will be
  Sunday and Sunday night.

- High temperatures over the next 7 days will range from the 50s
  to the 70s. Low temperatures are expected to range from the
  low 30s to low 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Cooler air continues to move into south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas behind the cold front. Northerly winds are
across the area with temperatures expected to cool into the 30s and
40s overnight into the morning hours. Patchy frost may develop
across mainly portions of Valley and Dawson Counties early this
morning due to temperatures near freezing, light winds, and
sufficient moisture. Winds across the area will transition towards
the south and southeast this afternoon as the surface high
associated with the cooler air moves eastward. High temperatures
today are expected to be in the 60s and 70s with sunny to mostly
sunny skies. Near critical fire weather may develop this afternoon
(mainly in Dawson, Gosper, and Furnas Counties) due to low humidity
values and wind gusts around 20 MPH. An upper level shortwave will
move overhead this evening into tonight with upper level lift
increasing. Showers and thunderstorms may develop (15% to around 60%
chance) with the highest chances west and north of the Tri-Cities
area this evening through tonight. Severe weather is not expected.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to the upper
40s.

A cold front with increasing rain and storm chances (up to 70% to
85%) is expected on Saturday. Some of the storms that develop along
the front may become marginally severe Saturday afternoon and
evening with hail up to the size of quarters and winds up to 60 MPH
being the main threats. Rain and storm chances increase again on
Sunday (70% to around 95%) as another shortwave moves overhead. Some
storms may again become severe with fairly high CAPE and wind shear;
however, mid-level lapse rates will be marginal at best. Rain and
storm chances decrease on Monday but remain present across at least
a portion of the area each day through Thursday. High temperatures
each day Saturday through Thursday will generally be near or
slightly below normal (highs in the 50s to the 70s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Really no big changes of note from previous forecast.

- General comments on weekend severe storm potential: By FAR our
  main concern over the next 3-4 days will be assessing the
  possibility for at least a few severe storms mainly Saturday
  and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings. One of the main
  uncertainties involves IF (and if so) how far north a surface
  warm front might lift into our area. Especially on Saturday,
  it appears the main warm sector/instability axis should focus
  south of our CWA, keeping any possible severe threat in our
  CWA more along the lines of elevated hail storms. Sunday is
  obviously less-clear (and will likely depend somewhat on what
  happens Saturday night), but the warm front might TRY lifting
  north into our CWA, perhaps resulting in a somewhat-
  greater/more surface-based severe storm threat. Like Saturday
  though, any higher-end severe threat appears it should in
  theory focus at least slightly south of CWA. Plenty of details
  still to sort out, but at least at this Day 3-4 range, it`s
  probable that any severe threat we do see should focus within
  the southern half of our CWA (counties south of I-80 and down
  into northern KS).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. April
 30):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Although it was a very close call (severe storms developed
within 10-15 miles of our extreme eastern CWA), as has been
expected here for at least 24 hours now, the southwest-northeast
axis of severe storms along the cold front fired up SLIGHTLY
east-through-southeast of our CWA...with numerous Warnings
issued/ongoing within southeast NE/western IA...and probably
soon to be eastern KS. Meanwhile, back here in our area, the
cold front/dryline unsurprisingly packed a little more punch
than expected in terms of wind speeds (gusts commonly 25-35 MPH
out of the west-northwest) and also very low dewpoints/relative
humidity (RH). Fortunately as of this writing we are not aware
of any wildfire starts in our CWA, but a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect CWA-wide through 9 PM (see separate fire
weather section below for more).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, the southern fringes
of disturbance extending southward from a large closed low
spiraling over Montana northward into Canada is passing through
the Central Plains, which in concert with the well-defined
surface cold front/dryline has fired up the aforementioned
severe storms to our east.

Under a varied mix of mostly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (any
clouds of the mid-high level variety), high temps this afternoon
are on track to top out 76-83 degrees across most of the CWA (if
anything just a touch warmer than forecast).


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Our CWA remains dry, with any severe storms moving ever-farther
away to our east-southeast, and any potential for chilly
rain/snow remaining well to our northwest along the NE/SD
border. Skies through the first part of the night will average
partly cloudy, but trend toward mostly clear with time. At the
surface, breezes will remain gusty for a time this evening as
they turn northerly behind a weak cold front (gusts still 25-30+
MPH likely until closer to midnight). However, late tonight into
early Fri AM, northerly breezes will diminish to no more than
5-10 MPH. Low temps are aimed from mid 30s far north/west-
central (mainly Gosper/Dawson up through Valley/Greeley
counties), while most of the remainder of our CWA should bottom
out upper 30s-low 40s. In the aforementioned coldest areas
north/west, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out, and this has
been added to our official forecast and Hazardous Weather
Outlook. However, with any frost expected to be limited in
coverage and duration, opted against a formal Advisory.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Confidence is high that our entire CWA should remain dry through
at least 7 PM, with sunny skies gradually giving way to some
clouds drifting in from the west by late afternoon. At the
surface, the day starts with north-northeasterly winds around 10
MPH, then a period of variable direction around mid-day as a
high pressure axis slips through, then followed by a gradual
increase in southeasterly breezes mid-late afternoon into early
evening. The strongest breezes with gusts 20+ MPH should focus
within our southwestern quadrant or so (near-critical fire
weather possible). High temps were nudged upward a few degrees,
now aimed 70-75 most places, and any cooler upper 60s mainly in
our extreme north.


- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
While most of our CWA most likely stays dry, especially roughly
the northwest half of our CWA stands at least some chance of
seeing isolated/scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms
as the first in a parade of several weekend upper waves moves
in. Winds will average 10-15 MPH out of the east-southeast
through the night, which combined with increasing clouds/spotty
precip should keep low temps at least 3-6 degrees milder than
tonight, with our latest forecast calling for low-upper 40s most
areas.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT:
It`s still a touch early to start doing a "deep dive" into the
details of severe storm potential (see paragraph above in the
"big picture" section for some general stuff), but the bottom
line is that these 48 hours look to be relative active in terms
of rain/thunderstorm potential as a series of upper disturbances
track through the Central Plains in persistent west-
southwesterly flow aloft, with the overall-strongest shortwave
trough arriving into our area late Sunday daytime into Sunday
night. While both days/nights will surely feature some rain and
storm potential (again any possible severe storms would mainly
favor our south half), Sunday into Sunday night feature the
overall-highest chances for widespread measurable rain
(widespread 80-90+%) per our latest forecast. Given the
expectation that our CWA should mostly remain north of the main
warm front/instability axis to our south, high temperatures are
only forecast to reach mainly mid 50s-mid-60s Saturday, and low-
upper 60s Sunday...but again this depends on "exact" frontal
position, how stuck we are under lower clouds etc. As earlier
stated, there is decent potential for at least most of our CWA
to pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain...hopefully this trend
continues.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
While spotty rain chances remain in our forecast, this mainly
looks like a dry time frame (at least beyond Monday AM), as the
weekend system passes off to our east. For sure, convective
instability departs our region, ending any possible severe storm
threat from the weekend. High temps remain seasonably-
cool...mainly aimed 60s both days.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Still considerable uncertainy at this time range, but there are
hints of increasing rain chances (at least of the scattered
variety) as a few disturbances drop down into our region out of
the west-northwest (large scale upper flow transitions to more
northwesterly during this time). Convective instability and any
associated severe storm threat appears fairly meager. High temps
currently projected mainly mid-upper 60s on Wednesday, then
only near-60 on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Low level wind shear (LLWS) briefly
tonight, then at least MVFR CIGs by Sat AM.

Benign aviation conditions are expected through the evening
hours. Wind direction will veer from NE to SE and increase
slightly towards mid to late afternoon, but still remain
seasonably modest. Not much for cloud cover, either.

Latest guidance continues to indicate some SErly LLWS
developing for both terminals by 03Z-04Z, but keep it in a
fairly narrow 3-5 hour window before winds shift back to the
N/NE. This front will slow down, and perhaps even stall out by
around dawn, and become the focus for scattered showers/iso
storms. Where exactly this front lies will determine specific
rain chances/timing and there`s still some uncertainty - so only
PROB30s, for now. Clouds will increase behind the front, and
lower as well - likely into the MVFR range. Can`t rule out some
IFR CIGs at EAR towards late AM, but kept it just above the IFR
threshold given the aforementioned uncertainties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- REST OF TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
A Red Flag Warning continues for our entire forecast area (CWA),
and has been extended one hour longer into the evening...now
until 9 PM. As often happens in deeply-mixed, post-frontal
regimes, wind speeds have at least slightly "overachieved"
previous forecast expectations, with sustained speeds commonly
at least 15-25 MPH/gusts consistently 25-35 MPH out of the
weset-northwest. The overall-strongest winds have focused within
the northwestern two-thirds of our area, but even far southeast
areas will see sporadic gusts to around 25 MPH. As for relative
humidity (RH), it has easily dropped below our critical
criteria, with the majority of our area reporting 10-15 %
(localized lower). Especially between 7-9 PM, winds will shift
more northerly (versus westerly), especially within our Nebraska
forecast area.

- FRIDAY:
Although outright-critical conditions are not currently
anticipated, roughly the southwestern quadrant of our CWA
appears it will experience near-critical fire weather conditions
especially from mid-afternoon into early evening. This will be
due to the combination of southeast winds gusting at least 20
MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 20-25 percent.

- BEYOND FRIDAY:
Some good news on the fire weather front! Although not
necessarily "in the clear" for the spring season, it appears we
catch at least a several-days break from critical fire weather
concerns. This will be due to a varied combination of cooler
temperatures, higher dewpoints/RH (especially over the weekend),
along with intermittent and potentially somewhat widespread
soaking rain potential (especially this weekend).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion