Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

186
FXUS63 KOAX 181026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend starts today through Saturday. Highs today reach
  the 60s to mid 70s over our far southwest with a few clouds.

- Temperatures warm to the 80s for much of the area Friday and
  Saturday, and a few records could be broken.

- Areas of very high fire danger are expected Friday, while
  extreme fire danger may occur in a few spots Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis at H8 reveals a well defined baroclinic
zone just east of the Missouri River Valley. The attendant warm
advection from H7-H8 has led to some broad lift over southeast
Nebraska into western Iowa where the 88D is showing light
reflectivity echoes. Latest METAR observations show cloud bases
at around 10kft while forecast soundings have significant dry
air below that height. So, not really expecting this precip to
reach the sfc. Temperatures remain warm particularly over our
far west with values generally in the 40s, while east of the
Missouri River temps have remained in upper 20s to low 30s.

Expect highs today to soar to the mid 60s to low 70s as the 1000-
500mb ridge inches closer to the area. Winds will be from the west
northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Later this evening, an H5 wave will track
through the Dakotas in tandem with a weak sfc low. This should help
switch our winds to the northwest late tonight as the sfc cold front
swings through. 00z CAM guidance tries to spit out some light
reflectivity over our far north and east, but dry air below 10kft
will win once again, so expect the dry conditions to continue. Lows
tonight cool to the mid 30s in western Iowa and northeast Nebraska,
while 40s are forecast over our south.

The weak front will have little effect as on Thursday we see even
warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper
70s over eastern Nebraska, while slightly cooler highs in the upper
60s can be expected in west-central Iowa. Expect dry and sunny
conditions as sfc high pressure remains in place with light
winds. Lows remain mild with most areas in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The warmth will continue to be the main story through at least
Saturday as the 1000-500mb ridge keeps pushing east. Friday will see
highs in the 80s for most locations with the latest NBM showing
highs potentially being broken at Omaha and Lincoln. The warmest day
of the long term is Saturday as most areas reach the mid to upper
80s. Winds of 20 to 25 mph combined with the very warm temperatures
and low relative humidity will result in very high fire danger
Friday over eastern Nebraska. Saturday could see a few hours in the
afternoon reaching the extreme category particularly in our western
service areas.

Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday as a sfc cold front moves through
with highs in the 50s and 60s. Model guidance thereafter shows much
of the area in either zonal to slightly northwest flow which should
allow some shortwaves to traverse through Monday and Tuesday. Monday
morning appears to be the next chance for precipitation over
our far west, but chances remain slim at 15% or less at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
mainly SCT clouds at or above FL200. Light west winds this
morning increase to around 12 kt by 19z-20z before diminishing
by 19/00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

519
FXUS63 KGID 181121
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
621 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today though Saturday will trend significantly warmer. Record
  temperatures are likely...especially on Friday and Saturday.

- Winds increase as a system moves through Saturday into
  Sunday...which will lead to heightened fire weather concerns.

- There is a low (10-20%) chance for precipitation Sunday night,
  but otherwise mostly dry conditions are favored to continue
  through the end of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Temperatures have trended a few degrees warmer for today thanks
to favorable west-northwesterly (downslope) winds. The entire
area is expected at least reach the 70s, and southwestern zones
could touch the low 80s. The warmth and dryness (humidity
15-20%), combined with gusts 20-25 MPH will lead to another
round of near-critical fire weather conditions for areas west of
Highway 281 this afternoon.

Thursday has also trended a touch warmer, but lighter northwest
winds will result in a lower fire weather threat.

The unseasonably warm weather continues on Friday with
widespread temperatures in the 80s. Compare that to 20 years ago
(March 20th, 2006) when Grand Island set the daily snowfall
record with 17.8" of snowfall!

Temperatures peak on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Some models indicate that we could challenge the all-
time March temperature record at GRI/HSI (90 degrees at both
locations). Winds also increase ahead of this front. The
combination of warmth, dryness, winds, and a potential wind
shift may lead to Red Flag conditions for at least portions of
the area.

This front will bring a cooldown (closer to normal) for
Sunday/Monday, along with a low chance for rain/snow. Medium
range ensembles then favor another warmup for the middle of next
week, but confidence in magnitude/longevity is less certain.
Meaningful precipitation remains unlikely through the end of the
month. The GEFS and EPS show a 40 to 60% chance that the area
will see LESS than 0.10" through March 31st.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. FEW-
SCT high clouds continue to stream through the area from the
northwest today.

Winds today will be out of the northwest...briefly becoming
more westerly in the afternoon hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

As temperatures climb into the 80s later this week, a few record
warm temperatures could be in jeopardy across the local area.

Thursday March 19          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        80               84 (1921)
Grand Island                    79               86 (1921)

Friday March 20            Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        83               82 (1939)
Grand Island                    82               84 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        88               87 (1910)
Grand Island                    87               83 (1988)

In addition, record warm minimum temperatures will also be
possible Friday and Saturday.

Friday March 20            Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        46               46 (2011)
Grand Island                    47               50 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        49               47 (2012)
Grand Island                    49               54 (1911)

Temperature records for Hastings date back to 1907 and they
date back to 1895 for Grand Island.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion