Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

854
FXUS63 KOAX 061650
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday with dry
  conditions.

- Thunderstorm chances return to northeast Nebraska late Tuesday
  night, with better chances across the region Wednesday night
  into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday.

- A prolonged period of hot and humid weather is expected
  starting this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet weather today with eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa settled
under a southwestern lobe of high pressure stemming from a broader
anticyclone over eastern Canada. Skies are mostly clear and
temperatures are seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s across our area. The upper-level pattern shows a ridge building
northeastward out of the Four Corners region, while troughing over
the Lower-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys leads to storms over
the East Coast and Southeast.

High pressure and the building ridge generating subsidence over our
area will inhibit any storm activity today and tomorrow. The surface
high keeps the low-level jet to our west, forcing any overnight
storm activity north and west of our area. Temperatures will stay
warm into midweek with a very gradual warming trend. Expect another
chance for patchy, shallow fog development overnight tonight into
early Tuesday with light winds and humid conditions.

Storms will not be kept at bay too long, though. The ridge breaks
down late Tuesday into Wednesday, creating more zonal flow across
our area and forcing the surface high back east. This will bring the
low-level jet back into eastern Nebraska, advecting moisture back up
from the Gulf. With this in place, shortwaves will again generate
periods of showers and storms, starting late Tuesday into early
Wednesday and repeating the evening and overnight periods Wednesday
night and Thursday night. We`ll also see an increase in humidity
with dew points rising back into the low 70s. This will bring max
heat indices back up into the mid-to-upper 90s on Wednesday.

Wednesday night storms will bring a frontal boundary south for
Thursday, oriented west to east across our area. Milder, drier
conditions will be expected north of this boundary, while hot and
humid conditions persist to the south. This boundary will act as a
focus for additional showers and storm chances Thursday evening into
the overnight hours.

Storms Thursday night into early Friday bring the boundary farther
south potentially as far south as northeast Kansas. As this occurs,
a more longwave trough shifts east into our area providing forcing
for showers and storm chances through much of the day on Friday.
These both combine for a milder day with occasional shower and storm
chances. Highs on Friday generally only get up into the mid 80s.

Milder weather doesn`t last for long, though, as long-range guidance
is in good agreement on a strong ridge building over the Rockies
going into the weekend and shifting eastward over our area Sunday
into Monday. This likely brings back dangerously hot and humid
conditions with heat indices rising back above 100 degrees starting
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Clear skies today with winds out of the south or southeast.
Light winds again tonight could promote chances for more areas of
fog development, especially near river and creeks and over
agricultural fields. Confidence is low in any significant fog
development at the terminals, with only a 20% chance of fog lowering
vis below 4SM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

394
FXUS63 KGID 061738
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm today and Tuesday.

- Good chances (50 to 70%) for thunderstorms return Wednesday
  and Thursday.

- A drier and hotter pattern returns for the weekend and lasts
  into the following week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overall changes are minimal from previous forecasts.

Today and Tuesday feature high temperatures in the low 90s for
most areas as surface winds return to the south/southeast.
Afternoon gusts range from 15-30 MPH (highest west). Confidence
remains high in dry conditions through at least Tuesday evening.

There is still a low chance for a few thunderstorms to sneak in
from the northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
but ensembles have trended drier for this period as compared to
24 hours ago.

An upper shortwave and surface frontal system will bring better
chances for rain and thunderstorms to the entire area on
Wednesday. These chances continue Thursday, but would favor
western portions of the area more than the east. A few strong
to severe storms are possible, but convective details remain
uncertain at this range.

Overall, Friday has trended drier for most of the area, and this
dry trend looks to continue into the weekend as upper level
ridging builds over the west/central US. This will also be
favorable for well-above-normal temperatures (highs in the upper
90s and 100s) at times through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The first part of the work-week is seasonal and dry.
Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area. Upper ridging will build in to the Central
Plains from the Four Corners region for the first half of the
work-week. A strong disturbance moving atop the ridge will break
it down and upper level flow will become more zonal by midweek.


The return to more zonal type flow will allow for an increase
precipitation chances for the second half of the work-week. Lee
troughing will cause a front to develop across the high plains.
Model ensemble guidance indicates that the next upper wave will
approach the area on Wednesday with the best precipitation
potential (40-60% chance) on Wednesday evening into the
overnight hours. The potential for precipitation exists for
Thursday and Friday, but with less confidence. Thursday the best
chances for precipitation look to be along the High Plains
sliding southeast into Kansas with a 25-50% chance for central,
south central and north central Kansas. It will depend on where
an upper level disturbance tracks across the Central Plains. By
Friday the potential for precipitation is closer to 20% for the
area as the upper disturbance moves off to the east. As
this occurs, ridging builds into the west.
During the second half of the work week, temperatures are
expected to be in the 80s, which is near to slightly below
normal for early/mid July.

Moving into the end of the forecast period, next weekend, and
beyond. Much of the model guidance including the ensemble
guidance indicates a potentially significant heat wave. This is
due to a high amplitude ridge building into the intermountain
west. Ensemble mean Maximum Temperatures move close to the
triple digit mark, especially as we move into the next work-week.
Details will change, but current grand ensemble values show 20%
chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday
the 13th, and 40% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100
degrees on the 14th. This period is something to watch for
extreme heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Quiet forecast period with VFR conditions throughout. SSE winds
and scattered diurnal cumulus have developed across the area,
with occasional wind gusts up to 20kts possible at KEAR this
afternoon. Tonight, winds are expected to retreat under clear
skies.

SSW winds are expected to pick back up again tomorrow afternoon,
with gusts near 20 kts possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion