Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

990
FXUS63 KOAX 271736
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild but humid conditions continue today, with a strong to
  severe storm possible this evening in northeast Nebraska.

- Dangerous heat builds Sunday and Monday, with heat index
  values reaching 105 to 110 degrees in some areas.

- Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with
  occasional evening and overnight thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a
mid- to upper-level low over British Columbia, with amplifying
troughing across much of the western CONUS. In response, mid-level
ridging is beginning to build across the central Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the approaching system, a stationary
front draped near the NE/KS border will slowly lift northward today
into Sunday as a warm front, while moisture transport increases
across the Plains. This will help draw dewpoints into the low 70s.

Cloud cover will be slow to improve through the day, which should
temper high temperatures somewhat. Highs are expected to peak in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Overall, expected a mild but humid day,
with southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph.

There is a conditional risk for a strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening into the overnight period as a strengthening LLJ noses
into the warm front across northeast Nebraska, However, the risk
depends on whether storms are able to develop at all. Model
soundings continue to show some capping, along with mid-level height
rises, which may limit or prevent storm initiation. If a storm is
able to form, isolated hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible. PoPs currently peak around 20-40% across northeast
Nebraska. A few widely scattered showers will also be possible along
the front as it lifts northward.

Sunday and Beyond...

Sunday into early next week, the amplifying mid-level ridge building
into the central Plains and mid-south will bring a prolonged period
of heat to the area. Sunday and Monday remain on track to be the
hottest days of the period for most locations. Sunday highs are
expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100. Increasing southerly
flow will continue to pull a moist air mass northward, with
dewpoints climbing into the 70s, and potentially nearing 80
degrees in southwest Iowa. Evapotransipiration may further
contribute to the very humid conditions.

As a result, heat index values are expected to peak from 100 to
around 112 degrees Sunday, with the highest values favored towards
southwest Iowa. Overnight lows into Monday morning will offer little
relief, remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. Given this, the
Extreme Heat Watch has been converted to an Extreme Heat Warning
across southwest Iowa and the Omaha metro, with a Heat Advisory in
effect farther west. Headlines continue through Tuesday evening
(besides northeast Nebraska, dropping off Sunday night), though
an extension may be needed given the continued lack of
overnight relief.

Similar conditions are expected Monday, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees, with the
highest values again favored across southwest Iowa. Southerly
wind gusts of 30-35 mph are also expected to continue.

By Monday, a shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak rounding
the base of the western trough will help nudge the ridge
slightly eastward and bring precipitation chances back into the
area as we sit on the western edge of the ridge. A very unstable
air mass is expected to develop across the region. Storm
chances will depend on how far south the shortwave tracks, and
whether forcing from that wave, combined with the nocturnal LLJ,
can overcome lingering inhibition from the mid- level height
rises. SPC has placed northeast Nebraska in a Slight Risk (Level
2 of 5) for severe storms, with a broader risk area extending
northeastward as confidence in shortwave track continues to
evolve. PoPs currently peak at 30-55%.

Meaningful relief form the heat is not expected anytime soon. High
temperatures are forecast to remain in the 90s through the work
week, approaching the triple digits again by the holiday weekend.
Heat index values generally remain in the 95 to 105 degree
range and overnight lows in the 70s. Nightly storm chances of
30-60% continue through at least Thursday as the nocturnal LLJ
feeds moisture and elevated instability into the region along
the edge of the ridge. Any convection could locally temper the
heat through cloud cover and outflow, but the broader hot and
humid pattern is expected to persist through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions prevail late this morning across the
terminals as a thick deck of low-level clouds remain in place
around FL010-015, with the lowest ceilings generally across
southeast Nebraska. Ceilings should gradually lift and scatter
from south to north this afternoon into this evening, allowing
for periods of VFR. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
to redevelop tonight at KOMA and KOFK as the low cloud deck
shifts north and settles back into the area. Conditions should
improve back to VFR Sunday morning as the cloud shield departs.
Winds will remain out of the southeast, increasing to sustained
speeds of 12-16 kts with gusts of 22-24 kts through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-
     034-044-045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-
     055.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

823
FXUS63 KGID 271759
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to widespread fog is possible through the mid morning hours.
  Visibility around 1 mile is possible at times in fog.

- An extended period of heat and humidity builds over the area
  on Sunday and persists through the end of the forecast
  period. Highs and heat index values will generally be in the
  90s to around 100 degrees each day.

- The overall highest heat index values are expected on Sunday, where
  areas along/east of Highway 281 could experience heat index
  values around 105 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Low stratus is gradually building across the area this morning. As
this stratus becomes more widespread, patchy to widespread fog is
favored to develop over the area. How dense and the exact coverage
of fog remains uncertain in part due to winds being slightly
stronger than is typically favorable for fog development. Visibility
around 1 mile is possible in fog, but chances for dense fog are
uncertain at this time. Regardless, fog is favored to clear by the
mid morning hours (9-10am). Low stratus is expected to linger across
the area longer. Stratus will gradually clear from southwest to
northeast during the late morning-afternoon hours. This cloud
coverage will keep highs slightly cooler today, particularly
across northeastern portions of the area. The current forecast
highs range from the low 90s across southwest portions of the
area to the low 80s across the northeast. A few scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the panhandle of
Nebraska during the late afternoon- evening hours. Model
guidance favors these storms remaining northwest of the area,
though can`t completely rule out a storm clipping far
northwestern portions of the area (Lexington-Ord) late this
evening.

Southwesterly flow aloft strengthens on Sunday, bringing in the
first in a series of hot days to the area. Highs on Sunday soar into
the 90s, with temperatures topping out around 100 degrees across
portions of north central Kansas. The biggest forecast question
Sunday onwards will be regarding potential the need for heat
headlines across at least a portion of the area. Dewpoints each day
increase as one moves east across the forecast area, generally
ranging from the upper 50s (west) to upper 60s/low 70s (east).
Sunday remains the day most likely to see an overlap/the greatest
overlap of hot temperatures and high dewpoints. Heat index values on
Sunday will range from the mid 90s in the west, to the low-mid 100s
along/east of Highway 281. A Heat Advisory was considered for Sunday
matching up with neighboring offices to the east/southeast, but
uncertainty on how much of the area will experience Heat Advisory
conditions (Heat Index values of 105 degrees) precludes a headline
issuance at this time. Areas most favored to experience these
conditions are well highlighted by the NWS HeatRisk product which
places eastern portions of the area in a level 3 or "major" risk of
heat-related impacts. The highest dewpoints & heat indices shift
just east of the area Monday onwards, though heat still remains
impactful. To sum up: the first extended period of heat and humidity
will develop over the area Sunday and persist into much of next
week. Highs and heat index values will be in the 90s to around 100
degrees each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Tonight...

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies today have helped keep highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for one last time this week. Strengthening
southerly winds, however, will later help warm things up for
the weekend. Aloft, stable conditions from zonal (west to east)
flow will help keep widespread precipitation chances out of the
forecast for now.

A few scattered storms developing across the foothills of the
Rockies this afternoon may later tonight approach the vicinity of a
few west central NE/KS areas. Though it is unlikely for these
storms to reach far past our western edge (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas
counties in Nebraska and Phillips/Rooks in Kansas), a small
possibility of a brief storm or shower can`t be 100% ruled out
(less than 20% chance). In all likeliness, these storms should
generally be on their last leg if not just showers by the time
of their potential arrival (around 10PM-3AM).

The only last feature to highlight tonight will be the potential for
fog. Though winds may not fully calm overnight, speeds dropping less
than 10MPH with broad southeast upslope flow and temperatures
falling near their dewpoints (low to mid 60s), may lead to a few
areas of condensation or in other words, fog formation. The high
resolution models at this point in time, tend to favor east central
Nebraska for the "densest" or best potential for fog formation
tonight. Though the fog potential really can`t be ruled out for the
rest of the region given similar conditions. Confidence is not yet
high enough to consider the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory this
shift, however, if certain model trends continue, one may be
considered during the next forecast cycle tonight.


The Main Story this Weekend: The Heat...

Despite some morning to early afternoon cloud coverage on Saturday,
highs will begin a weekend warmup, stretching into the 80s to low
90s Saturday and the 90s to low triple digits on Sunday (generally
the warmest temperatures towards the far southwestern portions of
the area). This multi-day warmup will mainly be influenced by the
presence of a northward lifting warm front, accompanied by at
times breezy southerly winds (gusts as high as 25-35MPH,
possibly even a tad bit higher at times). This strong surface
warm air advection will additionally feed in moisture on top of
the warm airmass (60s and 70s dewpoints), especially across
eastern NE/KS. This surge in moisture will ultimately result in
inflated heat index values ranging the mid 90s (far west areas)
all the way up to 106 degrees (far east areas with higher
moisture content).

As far as the heat risk for Sunday goes, the area is currently
forecast to range Moderate to High Heat Risk classifications (levels
2&3 out of 4). Even though gusty southerly winds may provide some
heat relief Sunday afternoon, limited cloud coverage should not be
able to limit the solar flux much. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
forecast (an index to measure the solar/wind contribution/influence
to/on heat relief) also shows values in the Moderate to High
classifications (level 3&4 out of 5). Though the issuance of a Heat
Advisory was held off for now (forecast nearing criteria), this heat
will likely still be fairly impactful, especially to individuals
without an effective hydration or cooling source.

Besides the warm temperatures, the mention of precipitation remain
out of the forecast through the weekend. Aloft, southwest flow is
slated to return as a Northwest U.S. centered trough provokes
height/pressure falls across the Rocky Mountains. In addition, a
Southeast U.S. ridge is expected to strengthen, partially
halting the troughs eastward momentum. This ultimately should keep
precipitation chances north of the area until at least Monday.


Monday and Beyond...

A little more nuance enters the forecast next week, though a few
general conclusions can still be made. The main signal that
continues to show merit is with the temperatures. Highs from Monday
through Friday look to mainly stay in the 90s with overnight lows in
the 70s. Besides the hot temperatures, a drier pattern may also lie
on the horizon. The only mentionable PoPs in the forecast lie Monday
night (10-45%) and Tuesday (25-45%) as the aforementioned trough
sweeps by just northwest of the area. Several details regarding
these storm`s total coverage and intensity are still to be ironed
out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Current IFR conditions at KGRI and low-end MVFR conditions at
KEAR are expected to return back to VFR conditions soon (within
1-3 hours or before 21z). Clouds, just south of the terminals,
have continued to scatter across the last few hours. The same is
expected to soon take place at KEAR/KGRI. VFR conditions will
likely (80% chance) retain across the rest of the 18z TAF
period.

The only other aviation impacts will be the presence of
34-45kts of LLWS between 4-12z. Winds today out of the southeast
this afternoon blowing near 15kts and gusting as high as
20-30kts will continue for much of the evening and a majority
of the night. Winds late tonight into Sunday morning will turn
more southerly with gusts expected to drop off.

No precipitation is expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion