Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

465
FXUS63 KOAX 122315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
615 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger today in northeast Nebraska
  with winds gusting 25-35 mph and RH in the teens. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect through 7 PM.

- Shower and storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
  highest potential for severe weather being in southeast
  Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Tuesday.

- Expect summer-like temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, with
  many areas reaching the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

We have light showers this morning across far southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa as a weak open-wave Low interacts with the
low-level jet mostly to our southeast. Up in northeast Nebraska
stretching southwest into east-central Nebraska we have a very
distinct dryline with model soundings showing significant low-
level dry air west of the boundary allowing for more efficient
mixing of winds down to the surface. While breezy across our
entire area, boosted wind gusts in this area of northeast
Nebraska where soundings indicate we could see gusts 30 to 35
mph this afternoon. With gusty winds and dry conditions with
humidity dropping to 15 to 20 percent in northeast Nebraska,
we`ll see dangerous fire conditions develop this afternoon. For
this reason we have a Red Flag Warning out for areas expected to
see the most extreme conditions.

Overnight tonight we`ll see the low-level jet continue to shift
off to the east with the dryline shifting slightly eastward into
more of eastern Nebraska. This will limit shower and storm
potential significantly going into Monday with ensembles now in
fairly good agreement that we stay dry through Monday afternoon
and evening. With a greater portion of eastern Nebraska seeing
humidity drop to 15 to 25 percent (essentially west of a line
from Thurston south through Beatrice) we`ll have to watch wind
gusts again tomorrow. While guidance has weaker winds across
these areas toward central Nebraska, we do see gusts 25 to 35
mph across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa leading to some
potential for fire weather concern on Monday afternoon.

Tuesday we see a open-wave system start to develop and deepen
over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As this
occurs, we see the moisture plume (low-level jet) retreat back
westward pulling some of that moisture from areas to our east
back west into our area. This combined with the advancement of
the associated warm front northward into our area will bring
back chances for showers and thunderstorms, perhaps a few severe
across far eastern portions of our area. Instability and low-
level shear just on the warm-side of the advancing front could
lead to large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a tornado or
two. The better threat for severe weather will probably be to
our southeast, however, with our window being fairly short due
to the anticipated track of the surface Low. We predict storms
to develop near Falls City north along the Missouri River and
strengthen mainly as they move out of our area.

Wednesday we see the arrival of the upper-level trough bringing
additional chances for showers and storms but again the severe
potential looks mostly to stay southeast of our area. With
greater cloud cover and weaker warm-air advection into the
region, Wednesday will be a bit milder with highs back down into
the mid 70s.

A transient ridge moving through on Thursday will bring another
break in the rain chances with temperatures warming back into
the low-to-mid 80s Thursday afternoon. Friday we see the arrival
of a stronger cold front associated with the advancement of a
strong upper-level trough moving out of the northern Rockies
into the Plains. This could bring another chance for strong to
severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.

Dry, cooler conditions look to move in over the weekend as High
Pressure sliding south out of Canada moves into the Great Plains
behind the cold front. Highs drop down into the upper 40s to mid
50s for Saturday with some recovery back up into the low-to-mid
60s for Sunday. Ensembles linger shower chances through Saturday
afternoon, but this is likely an artifact of uncertainty in
timing of the aforementioned cold front discussed Friday
afternoon and evening. Once the front moves through, dry air
should shut down any rain chances through the rest of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the
forecast period. Breezy winds will decrease heading into the
start of the forecast period. Southerly winds increase around
15Z Monday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

041
FXUS63 KGID 121932
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
232 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Valley and Greeley counties
  this afternoon until 7PM for critical fire weather
  conditions.

- Widespread near-crtitcial to critical fire weather conditions are
  possible to return Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is
  in effect from 12p-9PM for all of north central Kansas and
  south central Nebraska counties south and east of a line from
  Kearney to Merrick counties.

- High temperatures will range between the 70s and 80s through Thursday
  with temperatures dropping to mainly the 50s and 60s over the
  weekend.

- Scattered shower and storm chances return Tuesday evening (20-50%),
  Wednesday (20-40%) as well as Friday night (30-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026


Today & Monday...

Skies cleared today from the southwest upper-level flow have allowed
diurnal warming to preform its duty. As result, temperatures this
afternoon are in the process of reaching back into the low to mid
80s (generally around 20-25 degrees above the seasonal average). At
the surface, a Northern Plains centered surface low has set up the
southwest oriented winds. Though speeds across most areas have come
down from this morning, a few gusty conditions continue to exist
across a few far northern and far eastern portions of the area
(gusts as high as 20-25MPH).

One other feature to note this afternoon has been the establishment
of a dryline across central Nebraska and central Kansas. As
headlined in our previous discussion, falling dewpoints today with
the above average temperatures has plummeted relative humidity
values across the area. With the gustier conditions along the
northern fringes of the area combining with the drier conditions, a
Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7PM tonight for Valley and
Greeley counties. Fire weather concerns are expected to return for
Monday for an even greater portion of the area given the
continuation of dry conditions and gusty southwest winds. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for all of our north central Kansas counties
and for south central Nebraska counties south and east of a line
from Kearney to Merrick counties from 11AM to 9PM. As of now, it is
very likely that this watch or at least portions of this watch will
be upgraded to a red flag warning this evening. For more information
regarding the fire weather potential this week, pleases refer to
the fire weather section below.

Besides the fire weather potential Today and Monday, temperatures
are expected to warm a few degrees for Monday (mid to upper 80s
highs). The mention of precipitation has been completely dropped from
the discussion through Monday as all precipitation chances now lie
east and outside of the area. The dry forecast can be contributed to
the fact that the area now resides inbetween a transition zone from
upper-level ridging out east and troughing out west.


Tuesday through the end of the Week...

As hinted at above, troughing across the western half of the U.S.
will soon meander over and across into the central U.S. by Wednesday
evening. Ahead of its arrival, a shortwave disturbance may pop out
ahead of the system, brining the area a shot at scattered storms and
showers mainly Tuesday evening (20-50%) and again Wednesday (20-
40%). The greatest precipitation chances both days will be
concentrated to the northern and eastern half of the area. The
placement of the higher confidence comes as projected surface
pressure falls over the eastern half of the state will likely
advance a cold front (the primary lifting mechanism) further east in
the day.

Temperatures between Monday and Wednesday will cool a few degrees as
a few periods of northerly winds (Monday and Tuesday night) back in a
slightly cooler airmass. Highs by Wednesday will walk back down to the
low to mid 70s. Highs for Thursday returning back to the low to mid
80s will become short lived as a cold frontal passage Friday will
send temperatures tumbling into the weekend (highs back to the 50s
and 60s). Overnight temperates may drop below freezing for the
northwest half of the area Friday night with for a majority of
the area potentially dropping below Saturday night.

The next major feature in the long term will be from the approach of
another and potentially more amplified trough. Precipitation wise,
scattered storms could return Friday night with snow chances not out
of the realm of possibilities overnight Friday. This even is too far
out still to be able to provide many more details. Otherwise,
occasional periods of gusty winds with dry conditions at times may
bring back near-critical to critical fire weather conditions to at
least a potion of the area mainly Tuesday and Thursday. Please
refer to the fire weather section below for more information.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to maintain through the period as
well as dry conditions. Only a few to scattered period of mid-
to-high level clouds poking in and out mainly this afternoon and
Monday morning.

Winds will remain fairly light to steady (5-15kts) with gusts
not expected to surpass 20kts beyond a few hours early this
afternoon. Wind directions starting from the southwest tonight
will swing to a southerly direction overnight before retuning
back to a southwesterly direction for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026


This afternoon:

Though the southeast winds this afternoon are not as strong as they
were overnight and this morning, a few northern and eastern portions
of the area may still see some residual 25-30MPH wind gusts. With
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s today, RH values have
fallen as low as 15-20% for the northwest half of the area. Near
Critical fire weather conditions have set up across Nebraska areas
north of I-80 including portions Nebraska west of HWY-183. The
slightly gustier winds across Valley and Greeley counties
(occasionally gusts as high as 25-30MPH) will meet critical
conditions. As result, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until
7PM tonight for those counties.


Monday:

Even drier conditions are expected to develop Monday as dewpoints
fall to the 20s and 30s. Afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid
to upper 80s will bring RH values down to as low as 10-20%
areawide. Returning southwest winds for Monday afternoon will blow
stronger than today (gusts as high as 20-30MPH). As result,
widespread near-critical fire weather conditions will redevelop area
wide. The worst of the conditions (strongest wind winds gusts) will
settle across the southeast 2/3rds of the area. As result, a fire
weather watch between 12PM and 9PM was issued this forecast cycle to
include all of our north central Kansas counties as well as south
central nebraska counties south and east of a line from Kearney to
Merrick counties. It is likely that the evening shift today will look
to upgrade the Watch if not just a portion of the area over to a Red
Flag Warning later this evening/tonight.


Tuesday:

Though temperatures may fall a few degrees for Tuesday (upper 70s to
mid 80s), dewpoints should retain in the upper 30s and 40s. Thus
afternoon RH values are likely to still drop to critical levels 15-
20% across the southwest half of the area and below 30% across the
remainder of the area. The main factor that will determine if
critical fire weather conditions will be met cross a few places will
be the winds. Currently, south to easterly winds Tuesday afternoon
are favored to gust as high as 15-30MPH, with the strongest gusts
concentrated along areas near and south of the state line.
Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions seem locked in,
though only a few north central Kansas and a few far south central
Nebraska areas may have the potential to actually observe critical
conditions. A fire weather watch for southern portions of the area
may be considered (not guaranteed) either tonight or during the day
Monday.


Wednesday & Beyond:

Cooler temperatures (besides Thursday) may keep fire weather
concerns somewhat limited across the rest of the week. A few
scattered areas of near-critical concerns may materialize each day.
The next and best potential for critical fire weather thresholds
being met will be Thursday as highs briefly climb back up to the
80s. Though winds look to be gusty enough to support conditions at
first glance, a few forecast elements may change between now and
then that could impact the coverage of critical fire weather
conditions.


-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap  of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained   winds/gusts
of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as  the
overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained  winds/gusts
15+MPH/20+ MPH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ048-049-062>064-074>077-084>087.
     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion