Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

853
FXUS63 KOAX 301711
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
  eastern Nebraska into Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall will
  be possible under the strongest storms.

- A more widespread line of thunderstorms is likely to move across
  the region later on Thursday into Friday morning. Damaging wind
  will be possible with the initial line of storms, along with
  heavy rain and small hail.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in
  the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Fairly quiet across the region late this evening as earlier
showers and storms had largely come to an end. However, we do
expect storm re-development overnight as shortwave energy over
western NE approaches and low-level moisture transport ramps up
and points into the area. In addition, we`ll have a decent
amount of instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along with
precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches and warm cloud
depths over 4.5 km. Therefore, any storms that do develop will
be very efficient rain producers, as we saw during the day in
parts of the area where we observed 2+ inch per hour rainfall
rates. If we get repeated rounds over any areas, localized
flooding would be possible, especially in areas that saw rain
during the day on Wednesday. Still some questions on how
widespread these storms will be, with short term guidance
ranging from a few somewhat short-lived spotty showers to a
relatively persistent, solid line. On top of that, even run-to-
run consistency is somewhat low. All that said, just given the
setup with the aforementioned instability, moisture transport,
and incoming shortwave energy, tend to lean toward maybe the
higher end of shower and storm coverage into Thursday morning,
so will maintain the 40- 60% chances.

Attention then turns to how long the precip and cloud-cover
lingers into the day on Thursday as guidance is in good
agreement of a cold front firing some storms along the NE/SD
border by the afternoon and pushing them into northeast NE and
eventually across the area during the evening into overnight
hours. Should early-day storms and clouds linger longer,
obviously the incoming line will have less instability to work
with and would be a little weaker, and vice versa. Shear also
looks to be somewhat across our area (30-35 kts in the 0-6 km
layer and 15-25 kts in the 0-3 km layer), so tend to the line
will likely become outflow dominant and weaken as it pushes
through. Still, guidance shows pockets of 45-60+ mph winds,
especially farther west where 0-3 km shear and instability will
be enhanced. Additionally, the environment for efficient rain
producing storms will remain in place, so could see some heavy
rain and localized flooding, especially if any areas see
training storms.

Think the primary severe weather threat should exit our area
toward 4-5 AM with perhaps some lingering showers and non-severe
storms on the back side of the shortwave and a surface low off
to our east. The northwesterly flow and lingering precip/clouds
will lead to a cooler day with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s.

We`ll warm back up a bit for the weekend with upper level
ridging building back in and surface high pressure dominating to
keep us dry. Expect lower to mid 80s on Saturday followed by
mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and Monday as southerly flow
strengthens on the back side of departing high pressure. Our
next rain chances look to arrive by Monday night/Tuesday as a
large scale trough slides by to our north and a cold front
pushes south toward or through the area. Still some spread in
various ensemble members on just how far south the front and
precip will make it, but currently seeing about 20-40% chance at
times through Wednesday night, with model consensus keeping
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Have dramatically changed the timing of the thunderstorm chances
based on latest model trends. Older models still have the
primary wave of storms pushing through the area between mostly
8pm and midnight, but the latest guidance has the current
showers and storms near OFK pushing southeast this
afternoon/early evening. Have opted to go with this route
although the previous timing remains possible (about 5 hours
later than current forecasts). Expect heavy rain to reduce
visibility with any storms. Vis may slip under 2 miles with
heaviest downpours.

Patchy fog/haze may develop early Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

646
FXUS63 KGID 301739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a high chance (60-80%) for showers and
  thunderstorms this evening, some of which may be strong to
  severe. Damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH is the main risk.

- The cold front will finally usher in some drier, more
  comfortable, air on Friday that will continue through the
  weekend. Friday will actually feel brisk/refreshing with
  breezy north winds gusting around 30 MPH.

- Warmer temperatures begin to build back into the region on
  Monday. Ensembles favor near to above normal temperatures for
  much of next week.

- After tonight, the next chance for moisture isn`t until
  Tuesday-Wednesday, and it appears to be a fairly limited
  chance at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Expect a considerable amount of cloud cover this morning, along
with isolated to scattered showers and weak storms, within an
increasing low level warm aid advection regime ahead of weak
upper disturbance moving out of NE Colorado. Does not appear
storms this morning will be as widespread or heavy as 24 hours
ago, but continued high amounts of atmospheric moisture will
support brief heavy downpours under any storms that do form.
Expect a period of subsidence to allow for decreasing clouds
this afternoon and a quick spike in temperatures. In fact, far
SW zones (that clear out the soonest) may make a run towards the
triple digits. Steady SErly low level flow will maintain the
muggy conditions...at least until a cold front arrives tonight.

Feel the 06Z HRRR has a decent handle of how things are playing
out this morning...which gives me confidence that it provides a
reasonable idea of what to expect this evening and overnight.
The aforementioned subsidence/clearing should allow for moderate
to strong instability to develop ahead of the cold front that`s
slated to arrive in our N right around 00Z. Several CAMs have
been quite consistent that a broken line of thunderstorms will
develop along the front by mid to late afternoon off to our N,
then sweep through our area during the evening and overnight,
generally between 00Z-06Z. 30-40kt of deep layer shear is
forecast to overlap the strong instability ahead of the front,
which will probably be sufficient for at least portions of the
line to become severe. Can`t rule out some large hail, but the
linear forcing and seasonably high freezing levels argue for
damaging winds to be the primary threat. PWATs pooling ahead of
the front to as high as 2" will also support very heavy
downpours/locally heavy rain...but the progressive nature of the
convection should keep hydro concerns to a minimum.

Main story Friday into the weekend will be the much drier and
also cooler air that will be advected into the region on brisk
northerly winds, perhaps gusting as high as 30-35 MPH Friday
afternoon. Believe it or not, far W/NW portions may briefly dip
into the 50s for Saturday AM. Certainly looks like a great
weekend to get outdoors and enjoy some pleasant late summer wx!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the
northern Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity
and cold air advection to the region, helping to increase
instability and buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the
area. In addition, surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave
disturbance, will help organize an around 1006mb surface
cyclone across north central Nebraska and central South Dakota.
As this cyclone strengthens across the afternoon and evening
hours, a surface cold front will undergoing frontogenesis across
central Nebraska/Kansas. This feature will likely serve as the
primary mechanism for evening thunderstorm development, likely
driving a line of convection across a majority of the area from
northwest to southeast between mainly 7PM and 1AM. Given the
high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE), steepening low-level
lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of bulk shear (EBWD);
the potential for severe weather will remain. The main concern
would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as 60-70MPH.
Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger storms may
still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up to the
size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the full
area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central
Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk
(level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the
southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH
during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper
80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the
forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation
chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the
weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet
stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be
expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25-
35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the
weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region.
Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back
down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies,
will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Broken to overcast skies will be expected to retain across much
of the period. Ceilings as of 17z are hovering near
2,500-3,000ft. Cloud bases will gradually rise between 18-0z
(height back up to near 8,000-15,000ft), before lowering across
the evening and overnight hours. Ceilings will be likely to
drop back below 3,000ft after 6z with low end MVFR to IFR
heights retaining across much of the 8-15z timeframe. In
addition, visibility reductions from thunderstorms between 2-5z
will be followed by some light visibility reductions through
mainly 13z.

The best window for thunderstorms this evening will fall
between 2 and 5z. A gust front out ahead of the storms will be
expected to abruptly shift southeast wind directions from the
southeast to the northwest. Though speeds up to 30kts with gusts
as high as 50kts may be possible, it is more likely to be
short-lived as the front end of the storms roll through.
Otherwise gusts out of the southeast this afternoon should not
exceed 25kts. After the wind directions flip northwestward,
speeds may near 15kts during the late Friday morning with gusts
approaching 30kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion