Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

982
FXUS63 KOAX 031108
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and drizzle will continue spreading into eastern
  Nebraska and far southwestern Iowa, peaking around sunrise
  Tuesday

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through
  much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms
  Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature the largely
zonal mid/upper flow over much of the CONUS, a shortwave trough
pushing east from the Great Basin, and a band of ascent
extending eastward from it. Most of the airmass-differentiating
boundaries at the surface are still relegated well south and
west of the forecast area, with low-level warm air advection and
weak moisture return from the southeast helping to develop
thicker cloud cover and spread drizzle/fog chances into the area
heading into the overnight hours. Latest short-term runs are
split as to how far the fog spreads from south-central
Nebraska, with the most likely areas to see particularly low
visibility values covered by a newly-minted Dense Fog Advisory.
Given the time of year, it is worth noting that temperatures are
above freezing as of now, with that warm air advection helping
to keep temperatures from falling below that mark at their
lowest point overnight in the 33 to 36 degree range. Even
accounting for wet bulbing/evaporative cooling of surfaces,
dewpoints above freezing as well will further limit potential
for any slickness. Expect the lowest visibility values to occur
between 6-7 AM, building slowly to that point and receding
almost completely by 11 AM Tuesday morning.

During the rest of the morning and into the afternoon Tuesday, short-
term models favor an arm or two of light rain extending from central
Kansas to the east-northeast into southern Iowa, grazing southeast
Nebraska and Iowa. To the north of this regime, we`ll see the low
clouds lift slightly, but remain thick while the lowest layer
of lapse rates increasing. This increase will facilitate areas
of patchy mist/drizzle north of the light rain that lasts into
the early afternoon. Highs during the afternoon are slated to
top out near 50 degrees across the area, making a very strange
early March day that is completely cloudy while being above-
normal temperature- wise. Heading into the overnight hours,
deeper lift will be provided by the aforementioned Great Basin
shortwave, spreading light rainfall northward, but still not
amounting to a whole lot in the end.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Precipitation chances linger from the early morning hours Wednesday
as the shortwave attempts to close off over the area, transitioning
from a positive tilt to neutral as it sweeps east-northeast. Skies
will gradually clear out, and with a few peeks of sunshine during
the afternoon will help boost temperatures even further into the 50s
to nearly 60 degrees (warmest to the west where skies clear
earlier).

By Thursday, a deeper longwave trough will be moving through the
Great Basin, as another wave ascent takes shape in anticipation of
it across the Southern Plains. Locally, mostly clear skies and
southerly flow will help boost temperatures well into the 60s
and even lower 70s. Those southerly winds won`t have the speeds
that we`re looking for in terms of a dangerous fire environment,
and will also be carrying some of the better surface moisture
in terms of dewpoints with it. Late into the overnight
period/early morning Friday, a lee surface low associated with
aforementioned trough will be taking shape over east-northeast
Colorado, with a potent low- level jet providing a well-sheared
environment to join steepening mid-level lapse rates and giving
us some risk of elevated storms capable of producing small hail
in addition to healthy rainfall. As of now, the best chances
only graze far southeast Nebraska, but small fluctuations in
model output could shift this area a bit as new runs come out.
Friday afternoon, we`ll have a surface low/trough ejecting from
northern Kansas across eastern Nebraska and into Iowa, pulling
with it a cold front that will cool temperatures from another
well-above average values from the afternoon. As the system
moves through the area, gusty winds will occur (30-40 mph) while
post-frontal precipitation lingers to the north and west of its
track, affecting northeast Nebraska into South Dakota and
northwest Iowa through early Saturday.

The overall pattern quiets down for us Saturday into the early week,
with part of Friday`s system still looking to retrograde to southern
California to develop zonal split flow in the mid/upper levels.
Early indications are that this subtropical system will join with a
northerly trough and eject into the Great Plains Tuesday/Wednesday.
This could provide another chance at seeing showers and storms once
again, but we have a long ways to go before anyone needs to plan on
locally.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings continue across the region this
morning. Areas of fog have also developed with visibility
between IFR and MVFR at this time. Conditions may fluctuate
slightly over the next several hours, but are expected to
largely hold steady. Ceilings and visibility are not anticipated
to improve until the late morning and early afternoon. MVFR
ceilings are forecast by mid-afternoon as fog dissipates. VFR
ceilings briefly return at OFK by evening. Any improvements are
short-lived as ceilings begin to fall back through MVFR after
sunset. IFR ceilings are forecast by the end of this TAF period
for most terminals also. Winds continue to be light across the
area during this forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ030-042-
     050-065-078-088.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

934
FXUS63 KGID 031037
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
437 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog, locally dense, will continue through the
  morning hours with a dense fog advisory in effect for all
  areas until Noon CST.

- Persistent dreary conditions will keep a prolonged period of
  relatively low chances (20-50%) for off and on drizzle or
  light rain through at least the first half of Wednesday. Low
  QPF amounts anticipated.

- A nice warmup (highs near 70) arrives for Thursday ahead of
  the next storm system that will bring chance for showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday night. A marginal risk for severe
  weather is highlighted with this system from the SPC.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are expected to
  dominate the first 10 days of March.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Areas of dense fog are being observed across the local area this
morning. Winds have dropped off nicely the past hour, and expect
the already dense fog to become more widespread by daybreak,
with models indicating it could linger through around noon in
spots. While many areas may see some improvement in conditions
by mid/late morning, will tackle the improving conditions by
trimming the current advisory as necessary later this morning.

While visibilities will improve by noon, cloudy skies, some
light drizzle/rain will continue across the area through the
afternoon hours, making for another dreary day across the local
area. While there could be some additional fog development
overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, all signs are that it
should be less dense/widespread with SREF probs significantly
lower for fog (30%) for Wednesday AM and most mesoscale models
(such as 06Z HRRR) keeping any dense fog potential extremely
spotty/limited.

As skies finally clear across the local area by midday
Wednesday, expect the return of at least partial sunshine to
help aid in temperatures returning to the 50s/60s by the
afternoon hours. This will just be a teaser of Thursday, when
temperatures should peak closer to 70 ahead of the next upper
level disturbance forecast to cross the area on Friday. Ahead
of this wave, instability will build across the area Thursday
evening, with a some elevated instability potentially being
tapped by an increasing LLJ that could spark some thunderstorms
across the local area. Given the elevated nature of these
storms, strong winds (to 60 MPH) and marginally severe hail (to
the size of quarters) may be possible with the stronger storms,
and nearly the entire area is now highlighted in a marginal risk
for severe weather Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Been a rather dreary day out there thus far, and don`t really
see anything to change this over the next 24-36 hours. In fact,
many areas probably won`t see sunshine until some point
Wednesday afternoon. Until then, abundant low level moisture
trapped beneath a stout temperature inversion based around 800mb
will keep low clouds and fog in place. Latest model guidance
continues to suggest high probabilities for dense fog late this
evening, and especially overnight into Tuesday morning.
Fortunately, temperatures should remain above freezing for MOST
of the area. The exception could be a narrow swath from around
Lexington to Ord that briefly reaches 31-32F. Thus, not
expecting the fog to cause slickness issues at this time.
Strongly considered a relatively long-lead Dense Fog Advisory,
but opted to hold off as sometimes these so-called "obvious"
setups end up being more in the 1-2 mile range but with very low
100-200ft ceilings. Mixing remains very weak on Tuesday, so even
if visibilities improve for the afternoon, doubt the low clouds
will completely dissipate. As a result of the stubborn clouds, going
highs for Tuesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s may be a few
deg too warm. Could be looking at a repeat scenario of fairly
widespread fog once again Tue eve/night into Wed AM.

Have continued a plethora of drizzle/rain chances in the short
term as a broad upper trough sweeps W to E across the Central
Plains, generally deamplifying as it does so. Off and on bouts
of modest lift, combined with existing low level moisture AND
brief bouts of mid level moisture, will probably be enough to
squeeze out some showers and/or drizzle at just about any time
through Wed AM. With that said, NOT expecting much in the way of
appreciable amounts - likely a tenth of an inch, or less, for
most locations. Perhaps the extreme NW (Ord area) and the far
SE (Hebron area) could see a bit more...but probabilities for
>0.1" of moisture for these areas is still only 20-40%.

By far, the nicest/warmest day of the week continues to look
like it`ll be Thursday. Much less cloud cover and moderate
southerly breezes should boost highs well into the 60s, and
likely even some mid 70s in our favored warm SW spots. Enough of
the early week low level moisture looks to stick around to keep
fire weather conditions below critical levels.

The warm-up will come ahead of our next upper level trough on
Friday, which model guidance actually indicates could be fairly
deep. Could see our rain chances increase as early as Thu
eve/night within a zone of strong low level warm air and
moisture advection that could support some elevated convection.
Will also have another chance with the ejection of the main wave
on Friday. The Friday potential will greatly depend on exact
timing and track of pertinent low level features. General
consensus right now is that much of the forecast area could get
"dry-slotted" - with the primary low level convergence/moisture
favoring strong-severe convection just to our E/SE, and colder
"wrap-around" moisture further W/NW from the Panhandle into the
Sandhills. Obviously, a shift in track N or S could change our
forecast quite a bit - so just stay tuned for refinements
throughout the week.

The late week trough looks to lack significant cold air behind
it, so latest model blends and ensembles support a quick
recovery for temperatures next weekend. Saturday may still be a
bit "cool" in the 50s/60s, but expect warmer 60s/70s to return
for Sunday if current trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dense fog with visibilities of 1/2 to 1/4 mile or less will
continue through at least the mid-morning hours (14-15z). There
remains some uncertainty when visibility will improve, as it
could improve an hour earlier or later than currently indicated
in the TAF (16z). By the early afternoon hours, fog will
completely clear out of the area. There is a low chance for
another round of fog late in the TAF period, but this appears to
be too patchy to include in the TAF at this time.

LIFR ceilings will persist through at least the mid morning
hours, and potentially through noon on Tuesday. Eventually,
ceilings will improve to IFR then MVFR during the afternoon
hours. KEAR could approach VFR ceilings being at the edge of
the stratus deck Tuesday afternoon, but overall model guidance
supports KEAR remaining MVFR. Ceilings lower to IFR Tuesday
evening/night, though the exact time remains uncertain. Have
opted to go on the earlier side of model guidance.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion