Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

486
FXUS63 KOAX 212342
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
642 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to moderate chances (30-60%) of non-severe thunderstorms
  across portions of northeast Nebraska tonight.

- Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend. A marginal risk of severe storms (5-14%) exists
  for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. The best chance of
  severe weather returns next weekend.

- Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal through
  the Friday, with high temperatures in the 70s and lows from
  the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Quasi-zonal short-wave flow will remain across the central part
of the country through the week, though the forecast area
generally will remain under the influence of the cyclonic shear
side of a semi-persistent large scale trough across the eastern
U.S. An active polar jet will at times be amplified by sub-
tropical jet to produce periodic chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The aforementioned large scale trough will keep
overall heights lower than normal through the week, allowing for
cooler than normal (5-10 degrees F) temperatures.

Tonight...Stratus will remain semi-persistent across the
forecast area tonight as a stream of lower tropospheric moisture
remains across the region along with east-northeast low level
flow. Where clouds scattered tonight, upslope flow could produce
fog, but left out of forecast for now. A shortwave moving out
of Wyoming will help to activate storms across the high plains,
which will advect into the northeast Nebraska by mid- evening.
The CAMS and synoptic models are consistent in moving the storms
eastward thus used a HREF/NBM blend for PoPs. Currently these
storms are not expected to be severe due to limited instability.

Monday...Sensible weather will overall be pleasant with high
surface pressure encroaching from the northeast. Skies will
become partly cloudy, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures,
with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A more potent shortwave dropping
southeast out of Alberta will induce lee side cyclogenesis and
moves a cold front through the central plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strengthening southerly flow will draw deeper
moisture into the region and increase instability. Coupled with
bulk shear values 45-55kts, better chances of severe storms will
return, with SPC currently highlighting a marginal risk for the
area. Given recent heavy rains, WPC also is highlighting a
marginal risk of flooding/flash flooding due to excessive
rainfall.

Thursday through Friday...The convection will move the
aforementioned cold front into the southern plains and lower
Mississippi Valley, but then becomes quasi-stationary as the
shortwave flow again becomes more zonal. EC ENS are more
aggressive in pushing the boundary further south than the GFS,
which will play a role in whether southern portions of the
forecast area will experience persistent low chance (15-30%)
chance of showers and storms Thursday-Friday.

Saturday into Sunday...A deeper long wave trough dives into the
Pacific Northwest Saturday into Sunday. The net effect will be
increasing low level, moist and warm flow and better chances for
more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

We`ve seeing cigs gradually lift to 3500-4000ft over the last
few hours and become broken in a few spots. Winds are generally
out of the east or ENE. A line of showers is moving into KOFK
around 00Z with some potential (30%) for another round later
around 06-08Z. Not anticipating any lightning with any of these
showers. There is a good chance MVFR cigs move back into KOFK
around 05-07Z (80% chance), while only a 40% chance at KLNK and
10% chance at KOMA. Any low clouds should break up by 15Z Monday
with VFR conditions through the remainder of the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

817
FXUS63 KGID 212344
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms (potentially a few severe) will race into to a
  few mainly western portions of the area this
  afternoon/evening.

- Less intense and more general thunderstorms could linger
  around a few northern portions of the area overnight tonight
  into Monday morning.

- The next potential for severe weather could come Tuesday. A
  passing cold front may initialize a cluster of storms that may
  be capable of producing large hail and damaging thunderstorm
  wind gusts.

- Thunderstorm chances return each day beyond Tuesday this week,
  though narrowing confidence keeps details more limited for
  now.

- Highs will mainly stick around the 70s to low 80s through the
  first half of the week with a warmup possible across the
  second half of the week (temperatures possible to return back
  to the mid 80s to lower 90s by Saturday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026


Tonight...

Following yesterday and last night`s scattered storms, a band of low-
level stratus continues to blanket a majority of the area. This
cloud coverage has helped keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for
today. The main concern of the day will be from the presence of a
mid-to-upper level shortwave disturbance that looms just northwest
of the area. Though some question remains on how the excessive cloud
coverage today may impact the instability, modeled soundings still
continue to show an elongated profile of weak instability through
much of the low-to-mid levels from the presence of steady lapse
rates holding between 6-7C/km (contributing to 750-2,000J/kg of
MUCAPE). In addition, a deep moist layer with 30-50kts of bulk shear
this afternoon completes the base checklist needed for storms. The
main detractor that may storms from reaching severe criteria would
be from the presence of low-level convective inhibition (stable
air) that storms would need to overcome.

Though activity may not be too widespread this afternoon/evening, a
strong to marginally severe storm could still be feasible to break
into the area from the west/northwest. A few storms, some of which
severe, have already erupted this afternoon out across western
Nebraska. These storms across the next several hours will march
southeast and down into possibly a few western portions of the area.
The main uncertainty will be how long lasting those storms will
remain severe as they march towards a slightly less favorable
environment (some question to how the cloud coverage earlier today
may of inhibited the storm environment). As result, the main severe
threat will be more concentrated closer to the west/southwest
portions of the area between the 5-10PM window. The primary storm
hazards from these storms will be hail up to the size of ping pong
balls with gusty winds near 60MPH. Though an isolated tornado could
be feasible, generally the threat remains low given the fact that
storms are expected to be on the downward trend as they arrive from
the west.

In addition to the severe storms racing in from the Nebraska
sandhills this evening, a mesolow moving down into northern Nebraska
tonight may offer up a few more weaker thunderstorms and showers.
These storms will drop down into a few northern portions of the area
overnight (mainly into a few places north of I-80). The mesolow will
gradually drift east through the morning hours on Monday, collecting
any last last remaining storm with it.


Monday and Tuesday...

Pressure rises Monday from the exit of the shortwave disturbance will
help snuff out most precipitation chances for Monday, although a
spotty or isolated shower/storm coming in from the northwest can`t
be totally ruled out. Besides the low precipitation chance, highs
will remain fairly similar from today (70s), although a few spots in
north central Kansas could overachieve expectations and reach the
low 80s. Winds will be expected to remain light (5-15MPH) under the
influence of higher pressure with wind directions out of the
southeast.

The potential for severe weather could return Tuesday as another
shortwave trough sneaks into the greater Northern Plains region.
Several medium to long range models including the NAM, ECMWF and GFS
are starting to narrow down on the conclusion for a later morning to
early afternoon MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developing along a
southeastward passing cold front. The current projection of this
system has been mainly confined to initialize somewhere across
northwest to north central Nebraska area, moving towards the
southeast through the rest of the day. Though CAPE may be somewhat
limited across the early portions of the day (500-2,000J of MUCAPE
possible), 40-55kts of bulk shear with dewpoints in the 60s (from
the influence of the south to southeasterly surface winds), may be
supportive enough for storms to develop strong to severe criteria
(>1" hail or >58MPH wind gusts).

The SPC has included the full area in a marginal (level 1 of 5)
severe weather outlook for Tuesday with a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
clipping mainly Rooks county in our north central Kansas forecast
area. The main uncertainty at this point in time is knowing
where/when the thunderstorms fire Tuesday. Depending on the speed of
the front and the time of day that storms initialize, the severe
risk could change. Otherwise, highs are expected to remain in the
70s to low 80s as some sort of cloud coverage is possible to remain
around a majority of the area (keeping the potential for widespread
coverage of 80+ degree temperatures low).


Wednesday and Beyond...

The potential for a pop up or scattered thunderstorm/showers returns
almost every day in the long-range forecast, although the best
potential lies Wednesday night (30-60% chances) and Thursday night
(40-60% chances). This seamanly wet period comes as an upper-level
low across southwest Canada interacts with a southwest U.S. ridge.
Numerous break/disturbance will break out of the upper-level flow,
keeping the area underneath sporadic storm activity. Widening
forecast confidence past Tuesday keeps detail limited for now for
any specific individual day.

As far as temperatures go, the general trend is for highs to climb
again, potentially reaching the 90s in a few areas by the end of the
week. It is uncertain how the upper-level flow will break out of its
more unstable pattern, though long-range ensemble forecasts tend to
favor the exit of the low pressure over Canada around the middle of
the week. This would leave some space for the southwest U.S. ridge
build, potentially influencing a end of week warm up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The overall threat for storms has diminished some as the
environment does not appear to be all that supportive. That
being said, a few spits of rain here and there, especially
between 8-16z could briefly impact visibilities (mainly to as
low as 4-6SM). a weak thunderstorm may also near the vicinity
of KEAR between 2-5z, although impacts are expected to be
limited to brief (only worth a TEMPO mention).

The main aviation hazard this TAF cycle, however, will likely
be ceilings. Overcast skies are expected to retain through a
majority of the night and day Monday. Ceiling between 3-12z will
gradually lower from MVFR to low end IFR or even a few hours of
LIFR. The window for ceiling below 1,000ft looks to fall
between 8-16z. VFR conditions after 22z looks probable to return
from scattering clouds and rising ceilings.

Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light with gusts staying
less than 20kts. Wind directions out of the east will gradually
turn more southeastward through the night.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion