Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

196
FXUS63 KOAX 021955
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 25% chance for light rain in far northeast Nebraska this
  afternoon. Widespread drizzle with some fog expected late
  tonight into Tuesday.

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through
  much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms late
  Thursday into Friday.

- Temperatures gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

18z RAP objective analysis reveals a weak H5 shortwave disturbance
tracking over the Dakotas into Nebraska. Looking at the low levels,
a belt of weak ascent driven by warm advection is also seen over
much of Nebraska into south central South Dakota where ongoing
showers are. These rain showers will gradually push east into
northeast Nebraska this afternoon into the evening resulting in PoPs
of 15 to 25%.

Aside from a few temporary breaks in the low stratus, largely
expecting the pesky stratus to linger over much of the area this
afternoon. This should help keep temperatures cooler today with
highs in the low to mid 40s forecast areawide. Southeast winds will
become light by the evening and overnight hours.

Late this evening, a more potent H5 shortwave now over Nevada is
progged to move east toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis ensues,
and while the main low tracks south and east away from the area,
broad isentropic lift and moisture transport seen from the 285K and
290K sfcs is observed over the forecast area. This should help set
the stage for a dreary, cloudy evening/overnight. BUFKIT forecast
soundings and RAP cross-sections show a saturated profile/area from
near the sfc to around H7 with weak omega of -5 ubars. Given
temperatures are expected to be above freezing, most areas should
see drizzle develop. Areas of fog may develop after 02z and
overspread the area into early Tuesday morning. The HREF
probabilities of 1/2 mile vis suggest a 40 to 60% chance of
occurrence mainly west of a line from near Norfolk to Wahoo to Falls
City. Cloud cover should largely help keep lows above freezing
limiting the threat of precipitation freezing at the sfc, and
forecast soundings would largely suggest profiles staying above
freezing. But, don`t be surprised if a few slick spots develop over
our far northern service areas. Lows were bumped up slightly for
tonight from NBM guidance to account for cloud cover. PoPs for
tonight into Tuesday morning overspread much of the area and remain
anywhere from 20 to 40% for drizzle. Lows tonight reach the mid 30s
for most areas.

Tuesday will see the continued cloudy weather with the potent
shortwave slowly approaching the Central Plains. This should help
provide an additional boost of lift resulting in an arching
band of rain showers developing primarily along and south of
Interstate 80 where better deep layer saturation occurs. For the
remaining areas, forecast soundings suggest the drizzle
potential continuing. PoPs of 40 to 60% are confined to areas
near the Nebraska/Kansas border from late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, while 20 to 30% PoPs exist from near Antelope
to Monona County.

Have cut back highs a tad on Tuesday given low level stratus likely
to linger across the area. However, most areas should still warm to
the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Tuesday cool to the upper 20s to mid
30s.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The showers and drizzle linger into Wednesday (20 to 40% chance),
gradually tapering off late Wednesday as the shortwave finally moves
away. Brief ridging behind the potent wave and southerly flow
Thursday results in a warm up, with highs forecast to reach the
upper 60s to low 70s areawide.

Late Thursday into Friday, model guidance develops a longwave trough
over the western CONUS, moving northeast throughout the period. The
potent wave induces lee cyclogenesis with a sfc low developing and
tracking east northeast. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance
show considerable uncertainty with regard to the sfc low track and,
in general, the placement of mid level features. At this time, PoPs
of 60 to 80% overspread much of the area starting late Thursday into
Friday. Don`t be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder with
this activity. While still several days away, a few forecast
soundings suggest around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 0-6km bulk shear
of 50kts. At this time, SPC currently outlines portions of far
southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa in the day 5 (Friday)
convective outlook.

Highs Friday warm to the upper 60s to low 70s, before cooling to the
50s Saturday and 60s Sunday. NBM currently indicates dry
conditions for the area Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Satellite imagery shows low level stratus over terminals late
this morning. A few breaks in clouds are observed and have
resulted in predominately MVFR ceilings changing briefly to
VFR. However, by 00z, expect ceilings to deteriorate back to
MVFR over much of the area. Model guidance is in good agreement
that areas of drizzle/fog will overspread terminals late tonight
and persist into tomorrow morning, resulting in IFR to
potential LIFR ceilings. Have opted for IFR ceiling adjustments
with this issuance, and also adjusted arrival time of poor
visibilities till after 08z at KOFK and KOMA, while KLNK
arrival is earlier by 02z. The poor ceilings and visibilities
will persist through at least 16z.

Winds will remain under 12 kts at all terminals throughout the
TAF cycle from the southeast, switching northeast by the end of
the cycle.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

305
FXUS63 KGID 022159
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
359 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog, potentially dense, likely (70-80%+) tonight
  into Tuesday morning.

- Persistent dreary conditions will keep a prolonged period of
  relatively low chances (20-50%) for off and on drizzle or
  light rain through midweek.

- A nice warmup (60s-70s highs) arrives for Thursday ahead of
  the next storm system that will bring chance for showers and
  (perhaps strong?) thunderstorms on Friday.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are expected to
  dominate the first 10 days of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Been a rather dreary day out there thus far, and don`t really
see anything to change this over the next 24-36 hours. In fact,
many areas probably won`t see sunshine until some point
Wednesday afternoon. Until then, abundant low level moisture
trapped beneath a stout temperature inversion based around 800mb
will keep low clouds and fog in place. Latest model guidance
continues to suggest high probabilities for dense fog late this
evening, and especially overnight into Tuesday morning.
Fortunately, temperatures should remain above freezing for MOST
of the area. The exception could be a narrow swath from around
Lexington to Ord that briefly reaches 31-32F. Thus, not
expecting the fog to cause slickness issues at this time.
Strongly considered a relatively long-lead Dense Fog Advisory,
but opted to hold off as sometimes these so-called "obvious"
setups end up being more in the 1-2 mile range but with very low
100-200ft ceilings. Mixing remains very weak on Tuesday, so even
if visibilities improve for the afternoon, doubt the low clouds
will completely dissipate. As a result of the stubborn clouds, going
highs for Tuesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s may be a few
deg too warm. Could be looking at a repeat scenario of fairly
widespread fog once again Tue eve/night into Wed AM.

Have continued a plethora of drizzle/rain chances in the short
term as a broad upper trough sweeps W to E across the Central
Plains, generally deamplifying as it does so. Off and on bouts
of modest lift, combined with existing low level moisture AND
brief bouts of mid level moisture, will probably be enough to
squeeze out some showers and/or drizzle at just about any time
through Wed AM. With that said, NOT expecting much in the way of
appreciable amounts - likely a tenth of an inch, or less, for
most locations. Perhaps the extreme NW (Ord area) and the far
SE (Hebron area) could see a bit more...but probabilities for
>0.1" of moisture for these areas is still only 20-40%.

By far, the nicest/warmest day of the week continues to look
like it`ll be Thursday. Much less cloud cover and moderate
southerly breezes should boost highs well into the 60s, and
likely even some mid 70s in our favored warm SW spots. Enough of
the early week low level moisture looks to stick around to keep
fire weather conditions below critical levels.

The warm-up will come ahead of our next upper level trough on
Friday, which model guidance actually indicates could be fairly
deep. Could see our rain chances increase as early as Thu
eve/night within a zone of strong low level warm air and
moisture advection that could support some elevated convection.
Will also have another chance with the ejection of the main wave
on Friday. The Friday potential will greatly depend on exact
timing and track of pertinent low level features. General
consensus right now is that much of the forecast area could get
"dry-slotted" - with the primary low level convergence/moisture
favoring strong-severe convection just to our E/SE, and colder
"wrap-around" moisture further W/NW from the Panhandle into the
Sandhills. Obviously, a shift in track N or S could change our
forecast quite a bit - so just stay tuned for refinements
throughout the week.

The late week trough looks to lack significant cold air behind
it, so latest model blends and ensembles support a quick
recovery for temperatures next weekend. Saturday may still be a
bit "cool" in the 50s/60s, but expect warmer 60s/70s to return
for Sunday if current trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant aviation impacts LIKELY through Tuesday AM due to
LIFR stratus and fog.

CIGs have been running a bit lower than expected - more IFR than
MVFR - so far today, which probably forebodes conditions for
tonight. As such, have moved up timing of LIFR CIGs to around
midnight, and this may still be a few hours too late. LIFR VSBYs
should follow within a few hours of the CIGs. Latest NBM progs
show 80-90%+ for IFR conditions for both GRI and EAR, and 60-70%
for LIFR conditions. This is pretty high for around here for a
large blend such as the NBM...so confidence for such bad
conditions is abnormally high. Winds will be SE to NE and on the
modest side at around 10kt, or less, through the period.

Mixing remains weak into Tuesday AM, so any improvement will be
slow and likely not until after 15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion