Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

635
FXUS63 KOAX 081053
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with
  highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Periodic chances for storms Wednesday through Friday. Main
  hazards with any strong to severe storms will be damaging
  winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

- A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend
  into next week. Excessive heat is a concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Quiet weather is expected tonight, but a gradual increase in middle
to upper- level clouds are an indication of changes to come.
Overall, light winds and mostly clear skies can be expected
overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the area. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will slide
east across the Upper Midwest, pushing a cold front into
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. A few showers or
storms may linger as the front pushes into the area, but these
should be limited and weakening. Temperatures warm into the
lower 90s during the afternoon, helping to erode the capping
inversion. Concurrently, a secondary shortwave moves east out of
the central Rockies. This feature and the cold front help to
initiate storms along the front by mid-afternoon across
northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Storms gradually sag
southeast through the afternoon and evening along the front,
approaching the I-80 corridor during the evening, before moving
into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday night into
very early Thursday morning. There is a marginal to slight risk
(5-15% chance) of severe storms with this activity. The main
hazards will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding
with any strong to severe storms. Overall, limited wind shear
and high cloud bases should help to limit much of the severe
risk.

Thursday and Friday likely offer the nicest weather of the
forecast period. Despite the cold front, clouds keep
temperatures warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into
Thursday morning. In contrast, cooler temperatures filter in by
afternoon with middle 80s for all. Additional showers and
storms chances (10-30%) are expected across the southern half
of the area from activity spreading east from the Rockies. That
said, surface high pressure limits this potential. Friday
offers much of the same weather as Thursday, though rain chances
are a touch higher (20-40%).

By this weekend into next week, a return to hot and humid
weather is forecast. Upper-level ridging and increasing heights
will effectively keep the area dry through this time period
with increasing temperatures throughout. Upper 80s return this
weekend, before 90s to near 100 arrive heading through next
week. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, heat indices
near 100 are probable. This heat will continued to be monitored
as any further increases could result in excessive heat
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Expect southerly winds to dominate the day until a boundary
pushes into northeast Nebraska this afternoon. Winds north of
that boundary will be coming out of the north.

Thunderstorms are possible most of the afternoon, evening, and
into the overnight, generally working form the northwest to the
southeast. Timing is still nebulous at this point. There is lots
of uncertainty and each site may get more than one round of
storms, but I`ve highlighted the most likely two hours of -TSRA
at all three sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

935
FXUS63 KGID 081103
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this
  evening into tonight (mainly 7pm to midnight). Wind and hail
  are the primary threats.

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday evening. A
  few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible,
  although coverage looks more spotty.

- The main severe threat shifts south of the area for Friday,
  although a few isolated t-storms remain possible.

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions return for the weekend
  and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Currently, showers and weak thunderstorms stretch from northwest
Kansas up through the Sandhills and are gradually moving
eastward. These should continue to weaken early this morning,
but a few light showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out. This may
linger through midday as well, although little to no impacts are
expected.

This afternoon, temperatures climb into the 90s for most of the
area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Isolated
storms are expected to develop near this front this evening,
with additional storms moving out of western KS/NE. Initially,
storms may pose a threat for severe hail, transitioning to a
wind threat as storms merge into one or more lines/clusters
(probably favoring the southern half of the area). Output from
CAMs does not suggest "high-end" winds, but gusts near 60 MPH
seem likely on at least a scattered basis.

Thursday trends cooler as the cold front moves through. As such,
the primary t-storm threat shifts further south and west.
Nevertheless, there is still a low chance for a few strong to
marginally severe storms as storms arrive from the west later
Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday,
although coverage should be more spotty, and the main severe
threat appears to be to our south near a stalled frontal
boundary.

Upper level ridging will then promote a mostly dry and warming
trend through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Summer Heat...

Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday
afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will
bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and
cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in
the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge
(600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over
the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains
early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even
by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the
lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to
see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this
upper ridge patter fully materializes.


Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat...

We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the
upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off
for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our
Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas
counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may
come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main
threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail
threat as well.

There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front
with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and
northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will
probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable
of dumping heavier 1" plus rainfall amounts. There is lower
confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However,
there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of
thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later
Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and
then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This
later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to
our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts
generally less than 1" but more widespread.

The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM
(50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best
chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even
higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday
night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

South to southwest winds are expected today with scattered mid
to high clouds.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
through the GRI/EAR area between 00-06Z.

There is a low chance for stratus behind the thunderstorms
Thursday morning, although confidence in this occurring is too
low to warrant anything more than a SCT020 for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion