Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

864
FXUS63 KOAX 081850
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
150 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms for
  portions of Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa. Severe
  weather is possible with damaging winds the main threat.

- Heat Indices increase into the low to mid 100s Tuesday
  afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue throughout much of the week
  into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times,
  including on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A weak front has settled into Northeast Nebraska early this
afternoon. This front will gradually weaken with time.
Temperatures warm into the 80s this afternoon with partly cloudy
skies for most. Back to the west, a complex of thunderstorms is
beginning to develop across central Nebraska. This complex is
forecast to gradually turn into a mature bowing MCS with time.
This activity tracks southeast, mainly into Kansas, but the
northern portion may clip areas near the Kansas border.
Damaging winds would be the main threat with this MCS.
Elsewhere, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
residual front or north of the complex. A strong to severe
thunderstorm remains possible with damaging winds and large hail
the main concerns. It remains muggy tonight with temperatures
in the 70s.

The system that spawned the complex of thunderstorms today will
leave subsidence in its wake. This is anticipated to keep the
area dry and mostly sunny throughout the afternoon on Tuesday.
At the same time, mid-level ridging builds across much of the
plains. Temperatures increase well into the 90s to near 100 with
muggy dewpoints into the 70s. As a result, most the area sees
heat indices in the low to mid 100s prompting a Heat Advisory.
Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, but confidence
in much of this reaching the area remains uncertain. While a
healthy amount of instability will be in place, subtle height
rises and better forcing remains to the west. The latest
forecast guidance dissipates most thunderstorms as they reach
our forecast area. That said, if thunderstorms do reach the
area, severe weather will be a concern. Damaging winds and large
hail would be the main threats.

As a trough approaches the region on Wednesday, a cold front
will sink into the region. Temperatures remain hot, but do
decrease compared to Tuesday. Unlike Tuesday, more forcing will
be in place and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated
by afternoon across the area. This may end up being the day with
the greatest threat for severe weather this week. Continue to
monitor the forecast for the latest details.

Temperatures cool back into the 80s to close out the week and
begin the weekend. Initially, we will have a lower chance of
showers and thunderstorms behind Wednesday`s system, but another
trough looks to take shape by the weekend. Increasing
thunderstorm chances and some severe weather potential may
materialize. Keep tabs on the forecast for your weekend plans.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A
front is entering the region, but this is not anticipated to
have much impact. The front will cause OFK`s winds to become
westerly and then northerly as it stalls to the east of the
terminal before southeast winds return tonight. Elsewhere,
light southeast winds continue through the period. A complex of
thunderstorms is beginning to form over west-central Nebraska.
This is forecast to track southeast through this afternoon and
evening. Current guidance has the bulk of this activity
remaining south of Interstate 80. LNK may see showers or a
isolated thunderstorm as the complex passes to the south, but
confidence is low on this outcome currently. Isolated
thunderstorms may form elsewhere across the region this
afternoon, but the probability of this activity impacting a
terminal is low.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-012-015-
     017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

080
FXUS63 KGID 081843
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
143 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe storms this afternoon
  and evening.

- Hot and breezy on Tuesday with another round of severe weather
  possible Tuesday evening.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected for the end of the
  week. Chances for rain/tstorms return over the weekend and
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Convection from this morning has left an outflow boundary draped
across the area. Meanwhile, elevated convection is already
ongoing near LBF and additional cumulus is developing near and
along the remnant outflow. Near-term CAMs came into agreement
this morning that the primary area of redevelopment will be in
western portions of the area (possibly between McCook and
Holdrege) in the 3-5pm timeframe. The strongest convection is
then expected to push southeastward through the late afternoon
and evening along the axis of greatest instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE). Deep-layer shear is also quite strong, with effective
shear possibly approaching 50kts at times. Given the expected
storm mode (multicell clusters merging into line segments), the
primary severe threat is wind, although severe hail is also
expected in some areas. Output from the CAMs would indicate that
thunderstorm wind gusts of 70-80 MPH are possible. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, although the higher threat appears to
be to our east as the QLCS becomes more organized.

In addition to the severe threat, CAMs are indicating that
these storms will be very efficient rainfall producers...which
isn`t surprising with PWAT values near 1.7" per mesoanalysis.
The RRFS and HRRR indicate potential 2"/hr rainfall rates and
localized totals of 3-4". As such, a Flood Watch was issued for
portions of far southern Nebraska and north central Kansas.

Storms are expected to exit the area by around 10pm, but
additional convection from the High Plains may roll in later
overnight. Given the timing, these storms should not be as
intense, but some strong to severe storms do remain possible
into the early morning hours of Tuesday. This is a relatively
new trend, so confidence in specifics remains fairly low.

Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of the year so far in
many areas. Aided by a strong southerly wind (gusts 30-40 MPH),
high temperatures in the 90s and even low 100s are expected.
Heat index values may briefly approach 105 degrees in eastern
zones where dewpoints are higher.

The daytime should remain mostly dry, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across the area
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in
coverage remains uncertain, but convective parameters (3-4000
J/kg MLCAPE and 30kt 0-6km shear) would be favorable for a least
a few severe storms.

Wednesday will trend a bit cooler, and the main threat area for
storms will shift to the south/east. That said, a few storms
cannot be totally ruled out Wednesday evening into the
overnight.

With the active weather in the near-term, not much time was
spent on the longer-range forecast. After a break late this
week, ensembles bring t-storm chances back to the area over the
weekend and into next week. Models also favor a general
"cooling" trend this weekend into early next week. Sunday and
Monday could be feature highs in the 70s...which is about 10
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The main impact during this TAF period is expected to be from
thunderstorms, which now looks to be in the 00Z-03Z timeframe.
That said, the main threat area is trending south of EAR/GRI.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with northeast winds
becoming variable this evening through tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ082>085.
KS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion