Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

840
FXUS63 KOAX 300451
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1151 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest
  potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations
  will be Thursday and Friday nights.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 30%) at
  times through this weekend. Highest potential will be this
  evening, Thursday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming
  into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening features brisk zonal flow across
the southern third of the CONUS, while more lax, northwesterly flow
fills in from Canada. Zooming into the local area, KOAX radar
imagery is littered with weak returns as showers and a stray rumble
of thunder move east-southeast towards Iowa spurred on by weak warm
air advection and PVA from incoming shortwaves. We`ve enjoyed a cool
but comfortable stretch of weather, with temperatures set to fall
into the low 40s to upper 30s and an outside chance at frost
overnight across northeast Nebraska. While winds are generally lax
as of now, they are poised to fall into line out of the northwest
and increase in speed slightly to 5-10 mph overnight and limit our
overall frost potential. In addition, cloud cover will keep the area
from having too efficient of radiational cooling and could further
disrupt frost formation. By sunrise, any remaining shower
activity should be east/northeast of the area and well into Iowa
as another cooler day takes shape and tops temperatures out in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Joining those temperatures will be
additional chances for sprinkles and slightly gusty winds that
will reach 20 mph through the afternoon.

Thursday Night and Beyond:

Heading into the overnight hours, surface high pressure will be
working its way southeast from the Northern High Plains, helping to
usher in weak winds and tamp down cloud cover compared to the night
previous. With that in mind, overnight lows Friday morning will
respond to the more efficient radiational cooling, resulting in
temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s. The combination of the winds and
cold will make for a favorable environment for frost formation, a
setup that further moves in Friday night as well, potentially
necessitating a Frost Advisory if the lack of clouds holds in short-
term models. During the daytime hours, we`ll see daytime showers
making the most of the steep boundary layer lapse rates but struggle
to form anything locally, focusing instead just to the northeast
where some instability could be realized thanks to better low-
level moisture. Heading into the overnight hours, high pressure
moves squarely overhead to help reinforce another night of frost
as mentioned above.

Saturday afternoon brings a warming trend into the forecast, brought
about by a slight pattern shift as a building ridge to the west
increases mid/upper heights over the area. Highs are set to reach
the mid-to-upper 60s during the afternoon hours, with little surface
moisture recovery compared to our rainier previous week. Relative
humidity values during the afternoon will push down into the lower
20s for portions of eastern Nebraska, with overall fire danger being
curbed by lighter winds and the continued greenup that the area has
undergone over the past three weeks. Continued warming then follows
heading into next week, as the mid/upper pattern softens the north-
northeasterly winds and progresses what remains of the ridge
eastward, being shooed/diminished by a cutoff low headed for the
Great Basin. Rain chance don`t look great to this point, but the
combination of that cutoff low and the timing of a compact shortwave
shooting southeastward from Alberta/Saskatchewan will try to
phase together and overspread the area with rainfall
Tuesday/Wednesday as a deeper longwave trough takes shape (with
plenty of differences as to what it will eventually look like).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds become
predominantly northwesterly over the next few hours, shifting
more due northerly by late morning. Northerly winds increase,
gusting to 20 kt through the afternoon, dropping back down
toward 00-01Z Thursday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

941
FXUS63 KGID 300642
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
142 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible (15% to 45% chance)
  later this morning into this evening mainly for north central
  Kansas. Severe storms are not expected.

- Near freezing to just below freezing temperatures are expected
  tonight/Friday morning and again Friday night/Saturday
  morning. Frost/freeze conditions may develop areawide.

- There is a 15%-20% chance of light rain showers/sprinkles on
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

There are some remaining showers across portions of the forecast
area which are expected to dissipate/move out of the area during the
overnight hours. Winds are light and mostly variable. Low
temperatures overnight into this morning are expected to be in the
mid 30s to low/mid 40s. Winds this afternoon will mostly be out of
the north with high temperatures in the mid/upper 50s to the mid
60s. An area of showers and thunderstorms may (15%-45% chance) move
across mainly north central Kansas later this morning through this
afternoon and possibly into this evening. Severe weather is not
expected. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be present across
the area tonight into Friday morning as well as for Friday night
into Saturday morning. Low temperatures these two nights/mornings
are expected to range from the mid/upper 20s to the mid 30s with the
2nd night being slightly colder than the 1st. Both nights have the
potential for frost/freeze conditions to develop areawide. Light
rain showers/sprinkles may fall across portions of the area on
Friday (15%-20% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

After a foggy start to the day across western areas, mostly
sunny skies were observed across the majority of the region
this afternoon. A few light showers can be seen developing on
radar just to the west of the local area the past few hours,
with any more convective looking activity so far remaining
across the high plains.

For the remainder of the day, expect an upper level disturbance
crossing the Rockies to help continue to fire up a few showers
and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two across the local area,
but with minimal instability and elevated LCL heights, severe
weather is not anticipated. This activity will then slide south
through the overnight hours, potentially bringing a few
additional showers and isolated weak thunderstorms to our Kansas
counties through the daytime hours Thursday. Given the scattered
nature of activity depicted in the CAMS, do not expect much in
the way of significant or widespread precipitation over the
next 24 hours, with most locations receiving just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch of rainfall on average.

As skies clear and winds remain light across the area Thursday
evening, expect temperatures to fall to near or potentially
slightly below freezing in spots, with widespread frost in the
forecast to start the day Friday. While currently there is no
fog in the forecast to go along with the frost potential, this
will be something to keep an eye on as despite low probs in the
models, the setup (mostly clear skies/light winds and elevated
dew points) is not that dissimilar to this morning when dense
fog developed across portions of the area during the early
morning hours.

A near repeat of frosty conditions is then anticipated to start
the upcoming weekend as high pressure begins to nudge into the
area from the west. As this ridge transitions eastward, expect a
nice bump in temperatures through early next week when
widespread highs are anticipated to be in the mid to upper 70s.
This ridge then shows some signs of weakness by Tuesday as a
west coast low merges with the an upper level trough to our
north bringing back a chance for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity as early as Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Expect dry conditions and a mix of mid to high clouds much of
the period. The lowest CIGs may come during the afternoon into
form of some cu/stratocu based around 3-4Kft. Can`t rule out a
sprinkle, or two, either...but shouldn`t amount to much. Skies
will clear out Thursday evening. Light and variable wind now
will give way to steady NW wind this morning, sustained around
8-12kt. Winds will return to light and variable Thursday eve.
Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion