Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

801
FXUS63 KOAX 261717
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather continues through Saturday, with a strong to
  severe storm possible Saturday evening, primarily across
  northeast Nebraska.

- Heat build this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected
  Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110
  degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next
  week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon reveal
generally zonal flow across the central Plains, with a few embedded
shortwave disturbances aloft as an amplifying trough moves into the
western CONUS. Cloud cover will be slow to erode through the day,
especially across southeast NE and southwest IA, where the northern
edge of the cloud shield associated with a departing surface low
continues to brush the area. Some improvement is expected by the
afternoon and evening, but highs should remain limited to the 70s to
low 80s. Today is a great day to take care of any outdoor chores
before the heat builds in. A low-level overcast cloud deck will work
in from the south overnight.

By Saturday and into the weekend, the amplifying trough to our west
will force mid-level ridging to build into the central Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the approaching system and
associated surface low to our west, a warm front will slowly lift
northward across the area Saturday, accompanied by increasing
moisture transport. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to
mid 80s, likely held back somewhat by cloud cover, while dewpoints
climb into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Precipitation chances return Saturday evening, generally in the 25-5
0% range across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, along the
northward advancing front as the low-level jet strengthens and noses
into it. This potential remains conditions. If storms are able to
develop, sufficient shear and instability would support a strong to
severe storm or two, with isolated hail and damaging wind gusts the
primary hazards. However, rising mid-level heights may be enough to
suppress convective initiation altogether. Any strong chances should
shift northward overnight.

Sunday and Beyond...

Sunday into early next week, a mid-level ridge will continue to
build into the central Plains and Mid-South, leading to a notable
increase in temperatures across the region. Confidence is highest
that Sunday and Monday will be among the hottest days of the period
for most locations, with highs generally in the 94 to 100 degree
range. Southerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph will help draw richer
moisture northward, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. This will push heat index values into the uncomfortable 105
to 110 degree range, with the highest values expected across
southwest Iowa where the higher dewpoints reside. Relief is not on
the horizon, as high temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90s
through the work week with daily heat index values generally in the
95 to 105 degree range.

Heading into Monday, the western trough is expected to begin edging
farther into the Plains as a stronger mid-level jet streak lifts
across the northern Plains. This should help to nudge the ridge
slightly eastward and bringing periodic precipitation chances back
to the region. From Monday onward, nightly PoPs generally remain in
the 20-50% range. A very unstable air mass is expected to be in
place during this time, though the overall severe weather potential
will depend heavily on the timing and track of any subtle shortwave
energy ejecting out of the trough, especially with shear expected to
remain somewhat limited.

Ensemble guidance continues to show at least some QPF signal in or
near the forecast area each night, with support from the GEFS, EPS
and EPS-AIFS. EPS- and GEFS-based machine learning guidance also
continue to show low-end severe weather probabilities, generally in
the 5-15% range, Monday through Wednesday. The overall pattern
remains supportive of one or more nocturnal MCSs early next week, as
a strengthening low-level jet feeds moisture and elevated
instability into the region along the edge of the ridge. However,
confidence in timing and placement remains low and will depend
heavily on mesoscale details. Any convection could locally temper
the heat through cloud cover and outflow, but the broader hot and
humid pattern is expected to persist through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A deck of MVFR ceilings remain in place across southeast
Nebraska this afternoon. While VFR conditions are favorite this
afternoon, brief periods of MVFR conditions may work into KLNK.
A broken to overcast cloud deck at FL050-080 will remain in
place through the day. Otherwise, widespread IFR ceilings are
expected to overspread all the terminals later this evening into
the overnight period. Patchy LIFR conditions will be possible
early Saturday morning, primarily at KLNK. Ceilings will slowly
break up and improve after 27/14Z. Winds will remain light and
out of the east- southeast, increasing in the final few hours of
the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

901
FXUS63 KGID 262046
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few places of fog may be possible to form tonight. Though
  the total coverage of the fog remains somewhat uncertain, any
  location within the forecast area will still at least have
  some potential.

- Temperatures will be heating up for the weekend. Highs are
  expected to peak Sunday (90s with a few isolated places in the
  low 100s) with heat index values as high as 106 degrees.

- Highs for much of the rest of next week will look to mainly
  range the 90s.

- The next real chance for precipitation (>25% chance) does not
  come until Monday night (25-45% chances concentrated towards
  the northeast portions of the area).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026


Tonight...

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies today have helped keep highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for one last time this week. Strengthening
southerly winds, however, will later help warm things up for
the weekend. Aloft, stable conditions from zonal (west to east)
flow will help keep widespread precipitation chances out of the
forecast for now.

A few scattered storms developing across the foothills of the
Rockies this afternoon may later tonight approach the vicinity of a
few west central NE/KS areas. Though it is unlikely for these
storms to reach far past our western edge (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas
counties in Nebraska and Phillips/Rooks in Kansas), a small
possibility of a brief storm or shower can`t be 100% ruled out
(less than 20% chance). In all likeliness, these storms should
generally be on their last leg if not just showers by the time
of their potential arrival (around 10PM-3AM).

The only last feature to highlight tonight will be the potential for
fog. Though winds may not fully calm overnight, speeds dropping less
than 10MPH with broad southeast upslope flow and temperatures
falling near their dewpoints (low to mid 60s), may lead to a few
areas of condensation or in other words, fog formation. The high
resolution models at this point in time, tend to favor east central
Nebraska for the "densest" or best potential for fog formation
tonight. Though the fog potential really can`t be ruled out for the
rest of the region given similar conditions. Confidence is not yet
high enough to consider the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory this
shift, however, if certain model trends continue, one may be
considered during the next forecast cycle tonight.


The Main Story this Weekend: The Heat...

Despite some morning to early afternoon cloud coverage on Saturday,
highs will begin a weekend warmup, stretching into the 80s to low
90s Saturday and the 90s to low triple digits on Sunday (generally
the warmest temperatures towards the far southwestern portions of
the area). This multi-day warmup will mainly be influenced by the
presence of a northward lifting warm front, accompanied by at
times breezy southerly winds (gusts as high as 25-35MPH,
possibly even a tad bit higher at times). This strong surface
warm air advection will additionally feed in moisture on top of
the warm airmass (60s and 70s dewpoints), especially across
eastern NE/KS. This surge in moisture will ultimately result in
inflated heat index values ranging the mid 90s (far west areas)
all the way up to 106 degrees (far east areas with higher
moisture content).

As far as the heat risk for Sunday goes, the area is currently
forecast to range Moderate to High Heat Risk classifications (levels
2&3 out of 4). Even though gusty southerly winds may provide some
heat relief Sunday afternoon, limited cloud coverage should not be
able to limit the solar flux much. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
forecast (an index to measure the solar/wind contribution/influence
to/on heat relief) also shows values in the Moderate to High
classifications (level 3&4 out of 5). Though the issuance of a Heat
Advisory was held off for now (forecast nearing criteria), this heat
will likely still be fairly impactful, especially to individuals
without an effective hydration or cooling source.

Besides the warm temperatures, the mention of precipitation remain
out of the forecast through the weekend. Aloft, southwest flow is
slated to return as a Northwest U.S. centered trough provokes
height/pressure falls across the Rocky Mountains. In addition, a
Southeast U.S. ridge is expected to strengthen, partially
halting the troughs eastward momentum. This ultimately should keep
precipitation chances north of the area until at least Monday.


Monday and Beyond...

A little more nuance enters the forecast next week, though a few
general conclusions can still be made. The main signal that
continues to show merit is with the temperatures. Highs from Monday
through Friday look to mainly stay in the 90s with overnight lows in
the 70s. Besides the hot temperatures, a drier pattern may also lie
on the horizon. The only mentionable PoPs in the forecast lie Monday
night (10-45%) and Tuesday (25-45%) as the aforementioned trough
sweeps by just northwest of the area. Several details regarding
these storm`s total coverage and intensity are still to be ironed
out.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The MVFR stratus deck is starting to lift and break up,
eventually lifting to VFR in the late afternoon/early evening.
Tonight, ceilings will quickly drop to MVFR and IFR conditions
around 07 and 10Z respectively. However, there is some
uncertainty with how quickly the IFR ceilings move in. This
lower stratus layer is expected to remain overnight through the
end of the forecast period.

Fog development is also likely between 10-14Z. However, there
is some uncertainty with the timing of this fog as well as the
visibility impacts, as stronger surface winds will limit fog
development. Worst case scenario, visibilities may reduce to
under 1 SM. The most likely case is for MVFR/VFR visibilities to
develop, as mentioned in the TAF. However, stronger surface
winds may limit fog development, keeping visibilities VFR.

Surface winds are expected to remain SE around 10-12 kts
throughout most of the forecast period, gusting up to 20 kts by
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion