Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

119
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for
  much of eastern Nebraska/western Iowa through this evening.
  Expect temperatures in the 90s with heat index values
  approaching 106.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight,
  particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and
  locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms
  that develop.

- Expect temperatures to reach the 90s each day through the end
  of the week. Daily chances for showers and storms will be
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The forecast period starts out with high pressure over the eastern
CONUS, an upper low over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and southwest
flow over the Central High Plains and Great Plains. Warm gulf air is
streaming into the region today, leaving us with noticeably muggy
and uncomfortable conditions. The main change in the heat related
part of the forecast for today was bringing dewpoints up a bit
across the region as many models have not been high enough over the
past couple of days. We are still on track to reach the low to mid-
90s across the region this afternoon with heat index values ranging
from 99-106 degrees. The Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning
products will continue through this afternoon and into the start of
this evening. A few showers with maybe an isolated rumble of thunder
remain possible along the KS/NE border.

Heading into tonight, temperatures are expected to cool into the low
to mid-70s for locations that have been under the heat related
products. Factoring this in as well as local criteria for heat and
expected temperatures and heat indices, at this point, the warning
and advisory will not be extended.

A stationary boundary remains draped across central Nebraska this
afternoon into this evening. There is still disagreement in where
storms will develop and set up this evening/tonight across the
region. The NAMNest for example, has thunderstorms developing from
Ft. Morgan, Colorado to Kimball, Nebraska, lifting to the northeast
and bowing out as it moves into the Omaha CWA. The HRRR shows
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Kansas, lifting
to the northeast through the evening and overnight hours along the
boundary. There is consensus that northeastern Nebraska stands the
best chance of storms tonight for our area, based on current models;
however, areas further south toward Lincoln, Omaha, and Red Oak, are
not entirely in the clear. As far as severe weather potential is
concerned, similar to last night, a wind and hail threat appears the
most likely hazards with any storms that develop and make it into
our area. Storms that are able to cross the boundary will make it
into a favorable environment for storms, with DCAPE values of 1200-
1600 J/kg, MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, and steep lapse rates.
Additionally, precipitable water values ranging from 1.0" to
1.8" will also be in place, so any thunderstorms that develop
drop some localized heavy rainfall.

The upper ridge remains in place through the rest of the week and
into the weekend for the region, with southwest flow over the Great
Plains. This will allow high temperatures to remain in the 90s each
day while lows are in the 60s and 70s. Given the position of the
ridge and the CWA location, we will continue to have a series of
disturbances moving through the region over the coming days. These
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may
become strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A front is draped across the area with southerly flow south of
it and light and variable flow along it at KOFK. Expect to see
southerly winds continue overnight and picking up speed after
sunrise. Overnight, some low-level wind shear is anticipated
with winds at FL019 at 45 knots from 210 degrees.

Thunderstorm development late this evening and overnight are
most likely to affect KOFK. Have added two hours of VCTS to
account for this for now from 05Z to 07Z. Expect this timing to
be tweaked as the system shows itself later this eve.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-034-044-
     045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ052-
     053.
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

736
FXUS63 KGID 302348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal to enhanced threat of severe storms this
  evening into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds
  are the main threats.

- There is a marginal to slight threat of severe storms
  Wednesday evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
  threats.

- There is a marginal to slight threat of severe storms for
  Thursday although there is some uncertainty if these storms
  will even impact the area.

- There is a 30% to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide
  Saturday evening. There is at least a low chance (20% to 30%) of
  severe storms.

- High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and 90s with a
  slight cool down Sunday and Monday (temperatures mostly in the
  80s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country and
extends over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An upper ridge
extends from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. South central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these two
features. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday,
especially across northern portions of the area with a surface high
present. Highs are expected to range from mid/upper 80s to the upper
90s. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the low/mid
60s to the mid 70s.

There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to enhanced (level 3 out of
5) risk of severe storms today into tonight. The highest risk
(enhanced) will be across portions of north central Kansas. CAPE
values will mostly range from 2,500 to 4,000+ J/kg. 0 to 6 km wind
shear values will get up to around 50 knots across mainly western
and northern portions of the area. Mid-level lapse rates will
generally range from 7 to near 8 degrees C/km. A shortwave is
expected to move over portions of the area this evening into
tonight. These conditions will contribute to the severe weather
threat this evening into tonight. The severe weather could start as
early as around 6 PM with an isolated supercell or two in north
central Kansas or in south central Nebraska west of Kearney. The
more widespread/main threat of severe weather is expected around 8
or 9 PM when a line/cluster of storms moves northeastward from
western Kansas. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms
will go when they move into the forecast area. While there is more
confidence for the storms to impact north central Kansas and
areas of south central Nebraska generally along and south of
Highway 6, some models are indicating storms moving from Furnas
County northeastward to Greeley County (similar to where storms
moved last yesterday evening/last night). Hail up to around golf
ball size and wind gusts up to around 70+ MPH will be the main
threats. The severe threat is expected to end around 2 AM
although additional (possibly strong) storms may develop after
that time.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Temperatures on Wednesday will be fairly similar to those today.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms across the majority of the
forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night with a small portion of
north central Kansas in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5). CAPE
values will be very high (over 4,000 J/kg according to the NAM12)
but 0 to 6 km wind shear will be a little weaker than today (up to
40 to 45 knots in some areas). Mid-level lapse rates will generally
be similar to those today. A shortwave trough is expected to move
over/near the area Wednesday evening and produce storms, some of
which may be strong to severe. Hail up to around the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be the main
threats. The main timing for severe storms will be around 7 PM to
midnight.

Thursday through Monday...

Similar high temperatures will continue for Thursday. There is a
marginal to slight severe storm threat for Thursday for south
central and central Nebraska. There is some uncertainty if storms
will even impact the area, but storms that do develop/move into the
area will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Some
storms may impact (up to around a 30% chance) northern portions of
the forecast area (Highway 6 and northward) Friday evening. Severe
potential is unknown at this time. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the lower to upper 90s.

It still appears that some, or most, of the forecast area could
experience showers and thunderstorms Saturday (4th of July) evening.
Right now for the evening and early overnight hours, there is a 30%
to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide. The severe potential
is unclear at this point but there is at least a low threat (20% to
30%) of severe storms. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. High temperatures Sunday and
Monday are expected to mainly be in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few thunderstorms may approach the terminals between 3-7z.
These storms, possibly severe, could bring gusty winds and a
temporary reduction in visibilities. Though not too terribly
likely, a few storms in the vicinity could carry some large
hail. The nature of these storms are more uncertain for now as
model guidance shows these storms to be in the stages of
possibly decaying by the time they reach as far north of I-80.

Other than the storm potential tonight, the main aviation
hazard will be from the presence of LLWS. Around 35-50kts of
LLWS will be possible between 3-13z. Otherwise, surface winds
will remain out of the south most of the night and day with
overnight to early Wednesday morning gusts as high as 20-30kts
possible at times. Speeds will not be expected to exceed 15kts
unless influenced by a passing thunderstorm.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion