Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

774
FXUS63 KOAX 171719
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwesterly winds will continue today, with gusts up
  to 40 to 50 mph. The strongest winds are expected in northeast
  Nebraska, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9
  PM.

- Dry and windy conditions will create very high fire danger
  this afternoon, especially across northeast Nebraska where
  fuel remain dry.

- A cooler, quiet day is expected Thursday, then widespread
  precipitation chances return Saturday. A few storms could be
  strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis reveal a mid- to upper-
level trough pushing into the Upper Midwest, with an impressive mid-
and upper-level jet rounding the base of the trough. This system
pushed a deepening surface low across the area this morning, along
with a trailing cold front that swept southward across the region.
Behind the front, warm, dry and windy conditions will prevail
through the afternoon. Despite a period of CAA, highs are still
expected to reach the 80s in most locations today. The main
concern will be strong post-frontal winds as a tightening
surface pressure gradient combines with deeper mixing into a
stronger winds aloft. Northwesterly wind gusts up to 40-50 mph
are expected, with the strongest gusts across northeast Nebraska
where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM.

Gusty winds combined with afternoon relative humidity values falling
into the 20-30% range will bring very high fire weather concerns,
especially to portions of northeast Nebraska, where 1000-hour fuels
have yet to green up. Winds will gradually diminish through the
evening and overnight period. A few light showers may develop
overnight into Thursday morning along an area of surface
convergence, though a dry sub-cloud layer should limit how much
precipitation reaches the ground. PoPs only peak around 15-20%.

Continued northwesterly flow aloft will filter a cooler and drier
air mass into the region tomorrow. Thursday afternoon highs are
expected to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s, making for a
pleasant mid-June day across the area.

Friday and Beyond...

A transient corridor of surface high pressure and brief mid-level
ridging will slide across the area early Friday, bringing quiet
conditions and helping temperatures rebound into the mid 80s. A weak
shortwave passage Friday afternoon/evening will bring 15-30% PoPs to
the area.

By Saturday, a shortwave impulse pushing through the Front Range
will help develop a surface low over Colorado/Wyoming before
tracking eastward across Nebraska through the day. This system is
expected to bring the next chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
to the area as moisture transport increases and a modestly
destabilized warm sector develops. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach the mid 80s. This will be a day to monitor closely as the
system approaches and details come into better focus. Current
guidance depicts storms developing to our west during the afternoon
before pushing eastward into the area during the evening and
overnight period, when PoPs peak around 80-95%. SPC continues to
highlight much of Nebraska in a 15% severe weather probability for
Saturday.

PoPs will gradually taper off through Sunday as cooler temperatures
filter in behind the system, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Monday into next week, highs are expected to remain in the 70s to
low 80s, with periodic 15-30% PoPs as weak disturbances track near
the area. The cool and wet conditions are expected to stick
around as the CPC`s 6-10 day outlook highlights the area for
temperatures leaning below normal (40-50% probability) and
precipitation totals leaning above normal (33-40% probability).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period, with winds the primary concern. A cold front pushed
southward across the area late this morning, shifting winds from
southerly to northwesterly. Winds will increase through the
afternoon behind the front, with gusts peaking at 30-37 kts from
17/19-23Z. Winds will gradually calm after 18/00Z, dipping back
under 12 kts later this evening. Mid- and upper-level cloud
cover will increase overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

619
FXUS63 KGID 171819
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
119 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will create
  near critical fire weather conditions today across north
  central Kansas and west of the Tri-Cities area in Nebraska.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Friday evening with
  the highest chances Saturday evening and overnight (65% to 95%
  chance).

- There is a threat of severe storms and heavy rainfall Saturday
  into Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas are currently elevated mostly out of the south. Winds in some
locations are gusting up to around 20 to 25 knots due to a low-level
jet moving over the area. Winds will transition to the southwest to
northwest by sunrise as a cold front begins to move into the area
today. Winds will mostly be out of the northwest to north today with
gusts increasing up to around 35 to 45 MPH. The highest wind gusts
will be north of Interstate 80. The lowest wind gusts of around 20
to 30 MPH will be in north central Kansas. Despite the arrival of
the cold front, temperatures today are expected to warm up into the
80s and 90s. Minimum humidity values of 15% to around 30% are
expected today with the lowest values of 15% to 20% across north
central Kansas and west of the Tri-Cities area in Nebraska. This
will create near critical fire weather conditions today. The
hindering factor in the fire weather threat is recent rainfall which
has resulted in a greenup of fuels.

Beyond today, there will be increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Friday evening (up to 30% chance). The
highest chances will be Saturday evening and night (65% to 95%
chance). The threat for severe storms Saturday into Saturday night
continues to be a concern with high wind shear and fairly high CAPE
along with a shortwave passing overhead. Dewpoints will be in the
60s which will allow for heavy rain/flooding potential. Details on
exact threats and timing remain uncertain at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly major changes to speak of, as the items listed in Key
  Messages above continue to ring true.

- Officially, our forecast remains completely void of any
  mentionable rain chances (meaning chances/PoPs less than 15%)
  through Friday afternoon. That being said, we cannot rule out
  later forecast possibly introducing some chances for a few
  light showers/sprinkles especially late Wed night-Thurs AM.

- In the very minor forecast change department, high temps for
  Saturday- Monday have nudged down a few degrees from previous.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. June 23):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 230 PM:
By most folks` standards, today has simply been a seasonably-
pleasant mid-June day. Under generally partly cloudy skies (a
fair amount of passing high level cirrus), high temps are on
track to top out between 82-90 degrees in most places...overall-
coolest in our eastern NE counties and overall-warmest in our
extreme southwestern counties (Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) which are
most favored to reach/slightly exceed 90. Humidity levels are
also fairly low, owing to dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Winds
have thus far today been a minimal concern, with sustained
speeds in most places near-to- below 10 MPH. However, speeds
through the rest of the afternoon will gradually pick up a bit
and become more established from the south, with especially our
northern/western counties seeing gusts 20+ MPH by evening.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central
Plains region resides under northwesterly flow, directed between
a potent shortwave trough rotating through the Great
Lakes/eastern Midwest...and an expansive ridge/high centered
well off the southern CA coast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
A dry forecast continues, with any stronger/severe storms
focusing off to our south (southern KS) and/or east (mainly
northern/eastern IA). A few sprinkles/light showers could TRY
clipping the extreme northern/northeast fringes of our CWA late
tonight along the far southern edges of lift associated with a
shortwave trough diving out of the Dakotas toward IA, but this
meager precip should stay slightly to our north/northeast. The
main story overnight will be increasing southerly and eventually
southwesterly winds...in response to a surface low pressure
system deepening to around 990 millibars as it tracks from the
WY/NE border area early this evening...to east-central/southeast
NE by sunrise. In response, our winds tonight will ramp up to
sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. The
increasing winds and low-level warm air advection makes low
temps a little tricky, as many places will probably bottom out
pre-midnight before steadying or even rising a few degrees later
in the night. No matter what, the majority of our CWA will see
lows hold up 10+ degrees warmer than last night...with lows
aimed from mid-upper 60s in most places...to low 70s in our
south (especially KS).


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Although not as hot as it once looked, this will still be the
warmest day of the next week, and quite likely also the windiest.
Aloft, the aforementioned upper wave will track east- southeast
into the Midwest (likely prompting widespread severe storms
especially over IL/IN), while back here out west behind that
system we`ll remain dry under mostly sunny skies. High temps
were changed very little...ranging from mid-upper 80s in most of
our Nebraska counties...to low-mid 90s counties mainly
along/south of the KS border. As surface low pressure departs
east, a seasonably-strong cold front (especially in terms of
winds...less so temps) will cross our CWA during the morning,
with most of the day featuring sustained northwesterly speeds
20-30 MPH/gusts 30-45 MPH. The overall-strongest speeds (gusts
40-45 MPH) will target counties mainly north of I-80, with the
overall "lightest" winds in our KS counties (see separate Fire
Weather Section below for more on near-critical fire weather
concerns).

Wednesday evening-overnight, winds will steadily decrease in the
evening with sustained speeds at/under 10 MPH by around 11
PM, but remaining northerly through the night. We continue with
a dry forecast, but various models are increasingly suggestive
that we might need to consider adding some low chances for light
showers and/or sprinkles post-midnight to especially our
northern counties due to some lift from upper jet dynamics and
mid-level frontogenesis. Temp-wise, lows about 10 degrees cooler
than tonight...ranging from mid 50s north to low 60s south.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Our dry forecast continues for now, but the same possible chance
for light showers/sprinkles mentioned for late Wed night could
linger through much of Thursday AM especially in our eastern
counties. Even so, the vast majority of these 36 hours will
surely be dry as we remain under benign northwesterly flow
aloft. Breezes Thursday will remain out of the north-northwest
but not nearly as strong as Wednesday. High temps will be
roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday (mainly upper 70s-low
80s). On Friday, winds flip back around to southerly and become
a bit breezy...aiding another jump in high temps (at least 5-8
degrees warmer than Wed) with highs mainly mid-upper 80s.


- FRIDAY EVENING-SUNDAY (the weekend):
Not going to attempt to break down this time frame in super-
great detail, but as previously covered there is gradually
increasing concern for a severe thunderstorm/localized flooding
threat especially for Saturday afternoon-night. SPC introduced
a Day 5 "Slight Risk equivalent" to our entire CWA on this
morning`s outlook...which is also supported by CSU machine-
learning probs.

Any convection Friday night-Sat AM could perhaps
be strong to marginally- severe as low-level moisture and
instability starts to return northward, but it will probably be
fairly scattered in coverage. However, more widespread
convection is probable Saturday afternoon-overnight as a low-
amplitude upper wave enters the Plains from the west,
accompanied by an eastward-tracking surface low and likely a
strong southerly low-level jet. This is still beyond the scope
of any higher-res models to be sure, but latest ECMWF/GFS
clearly support a decent combo of at least 1500-2500 J/kg of
CAPE (instability) and at least 30-40KT of deep layer wind shear
(supportive of supercells at least initially). Dewpoints well
into the 60s convey heavy rain/flooding potential as well.
Whatever happens Saturday night (in terms of how widespread
storms are) will probably have at least some bearing on Sunday,
as although the ECMWF (more so than the GFS) keeps some healthy
instability around, both models usher a weak cold front through
our CWA...which should in theory shunt any higher- end severe
storm chances to our south. Again though, it`s just too early
for many details at this still Day 4-5 range...and there is
still time for severe storm concerns to ramp up more OR perhaps
decrease a bit.

Temperature-wise, highs trended down very slightly from
previous, but are aimed mostly mid-upper 80s Saturday...upper
70s-mid 80s Sunday.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
We remain under west-northwesterly flow aloft, with passing weak
disturbances bringing continued intermittent/mainly isolated-
to-scattered rain and thunderstorm chances. However, instability
currently appears markedly lower than the weekend and thus more
muted severe potential. High temps currently aimed mainly upper
70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the
period, although much of especially the latter half (late
tonight into Thursday morning) will likely feature a mid-level
ceiling around 10K ft. AGL. During this same overnight-Thursday
morning time frame, and although not included in TAFs due to
low probability of occurrence, at least a brief period of
sprinkles or even a light rain shower cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the primary aviation concern of the period will be the
somewhat-strong northwest winds this afternoon (speeds
decreasing thereafter). Through this afternoon, sustained speeds
around 20KT/gusts around 30KT will be common. By 00Z (and even a
bit before), a steady decreasing trend will commence, with any
lingering gusts 20+KT fading away by 02Z. Thereafter, speeds
through the overnight into early Thursday morning will prevail
under 10KT, before a modest increase by mid-late morning (again
out of the northwest) with gusts 15+KT likely.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion