Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

856
FXUS63 KOAX 010420
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and milder conditions are building into the area for
  the weekend.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through at least Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Satellite shows the unseasonably deep surface low spinning to
our east generating the gusty winds across our area this
evening. We`ll see surface winds weaken as the boundary layer
decouples over the next few hours, though winds should stay
around 10-15 mph overnight out of the north. Skies will be
clearing of clouds over the next several hours, but we`ll also
see wildfire smoke out of Canada and the Pacific Northwest get
pulled in leading to hazy skies for the next few days.

Looking at the upper-level pattern, the trough associated with
the Low to our east will slide more east into the Ohio River
Valley over the weekend. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the
Central Plains leading to warming temperatures over western
Nebraska. The good news for us is that the ridge axis never
really pushes through keeping the heat to our west. Because of
this, we`ll maintain milder temperatures through the weekend
into early next week with highs in the lower 80s on Saturday and
mid-80s to low-90s Sunday and Monday.

A trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska pushes into interior
Canada squashing down the ridge and bringing a front through on
Tuesday. This will bring our next chance for rain starting late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. This front appears to stall
across our area triggering additional chances for showers and
storms through Thursday as shortwaves aloft interact with this
front. Machine Learning products from NSSL suggest some
potential for severe weather as the front initially arrives on
Tuesday, but a better threat with the shortwave triggering
storms on Thursday that finally pushes it out of our area. A lot
of details still to work out, so just monitor these periods for
now.

Confidence in forecast trends beyond Thursday drops off quite a
bit going into the end of the week next week as a fairly
baroclinic pattern appears to set up over the central CONUS.
Ensemble guidance trends back warmer which seems reasonable
for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MVFR ceilings are gradually improving to VFR from west to east
late this evening. KOMA should return to VFR between 05-07Z,
with VFR conditions then expected at all terminals through the
remainder of the forecast period.

Northerly winds will decrease below 12 kts at KOFK overnight,
while gusts of 18-22 kts persist at KOMA and KLNK. Winds will
strengthen again late Saturday morning before falling below 12
kts at all terminals Saturday evening. Wildfire smoke will move
in overnight leading to hazy skies, though significant
visibility reductions are not expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

334
FXUS63 KGID 010601
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temps will gradually edge back upward through
  Monday...eventually climbing back up into the upper 80s-mid
  90s in most of our area.

- Our next rain/thunderstorm chances look to arrive a little
  sooner than it appeared 24 hours ago...possibly as early as
  late Mon night-Tuesday daytime. However, the overall-highest
  chances/most widespread coverage are currently focused Tues
  night-Wed AM.

- Highs may take a 10-15 degree drop heading into
  Tuesday/Wednesday (upper 70s to low 90s). Another mini warm up
  is favored to follow into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Following the passage of last nights cold front, a "cooler" and
drier airmass has settled into the area today. A 1008mb surface low
centered across Iowa this afternoon has helped steer the breezy
northerly winds for today (gusts as high as 30-45MPH). These
gusty winds will gradually lighten through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave trough (the
disturbance responsible for developing last nights storms)
continues to shift east and away. This will leave space for a
southwest U.S. ridge to grow and expand up into the Central
Plains area over the weekend. Rising pressure from this building
ridge will help maintain dry conditions as subsidence works to
keep the skies mostly clear. In addition, a mini warm up will
transpire from Friday to Monday as sunny skies and southerly
turning surface winds return (a mix of warm air advection and
diurnal heating). Highs between today and Monday will gradually
increase a few degrees each day, residing mostly in the 90s by
Monday. A few far southeast Nebraska and western Kansas
locations could even near the low triple digits (30- 60%
chance).

The next major pattern change will come Tuesday as a northwest U.S.
trough is favored to push into the central and northern Plains. The
next chance for precipitation in the forecast will come with this
pattern shift Tuesday night as a cold front looks to pass out ahead
of the upper-level disturbance. Our chances for precipitation for
Tuesday night has increased slightly for our Nebraska areas
(20%-40% for areas just north of the state line and up to
50-65% for locations north of I-80). This slight increase in
confidence comes as ensemble model guidance begins to narrows
down on the timing of the arrival of the aforementioned trough.
Given that this event falls outside of the range for higher-
resolution short-term model guidance, we are not able to
provide many additional details in regard to specifics (coverage
or intensity) at this time. This event, however, will be the
areas next best potential for scattered storms.

Model confidence past Tuesday is a little more uncertain (widening
gap between the 25th and 75th NBM percentiles or wider range of
modeled outcomes). This increase in uncertainty comes as the the two
leading LREF clusters begin to show diverging scenarios to how the
mid-week trough may progress. Depending on how long this
feature lingers over the region, its presence will impact the
forecast through the rest of the week. The leading
cluster/scenario (weighted more on the ENS & GEPS ensembles) is
leaning more on a drier and warmer end to next week with the
second leading cluster/scenario (weighted more towards the GEFS)
leans toward a more mild and wetter end to next week. We will
continue to iron out the details for the mid to end of week
forecast as the cone of uncertainty begins to narrow more.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Odds strongly favor the vast majority of the period (at least 90
percent of it) featuring VFR conditions under clear skies, and
there is 100 percent confidence that the entire period stays
precipitation-free. The only possible "catches" involve a low
probability for brief sub-VFR visibility and an ever lower
chance for brief MVFR ceiling later this morning (more on this
below). As for winds, they will be a minimal issue, with
direction through much of the period generally northerly before
becoming variable/light Saturday evening. Sustained speeds will
register at-or-below 10KT the majority of the time, but the
afternoon hours will feature modest gusts up to around 16-17KT.

- Low probability for brief sub-VFR ceiling/visibility:
While odds favor neither of these things becoming much of an
issue, at least a brief period of sub-VFR visibility in light
fog cannot be completely ruled out mainly 10-14Z, and at least a
brief instance or two of MVFR ceiling also cannot be completely
ruled out mainly 10-17Z. Have maintained prevailing VFR in TAFs,
but did opt to "hint" at both possibilities with "6SM BR" and
"FEW015" groups.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion