Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

985
FXUS63 KOAX 051116
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
516 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as some
  snow moves through. The highest potential for at least 1" will
  be northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line (30-60% chance).

- High temperatures over the next week will generally be in the
  30s and 40s, but Sunday will be colder, with highs in the
  teens to mid 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Temperatures are primarily in the 20s this morning, with the
thermometer at the office here slowly climbing since 7pm. Temps
had nowhere to go but up as Omaha`s high of 21F was the coldest
recorded since February. Many locations hit Thursday`s high
temp mark in the day`s final few minutes.

Temps are expected to continue climbing until hitting their
zenith above freezing this afternoon as warm air continues to
build in behind the warm front lifting northwest into Minnesota.
A sfc trof / wind shift will sweep in behind the departing warm
front and guidance tries its best to produce some weak radar
returns. Forecast soundings suggest it will be hard to get any
hydrometeors to the ground with minimal lift and no saturation
in the DGZ. If precip does fall, believe most likely type to be
drizzle, but a flurry/sprinkle is possible, too with temps and
wet bulb temperatures near freezing in the afternoon... just as
the perturbation pushes through the forecast area. Have
maintained 10% PoPs over the northern half of the CWA from about
18Z to 0Z... but kept mention of any precip out of the grids.

.SATURDAY...

A better chance of precipitation is tied to a stronger system
approaching the Pacific coast of Canada. As the shortwave
approaches, it will develop a lee surface low in Wyoming and
eventually drive it through far northeast Kansas, pulling a
cold front through Omaha mid- day Saturday. Snow will begin in
the northern reaches of the area before lunch on Saturday. As
the features of the system are being better defined and its
bounds better established, confidence in its track is growing.

This has resulted in a tighter gradient in the snow forecast...
leaving totals along the SD state line / northern Iowa nearly
unchanged (1-4"), but areas just south of there progged to
receive a bit less than earlier forecasts. Part of the reason
for this is the increased confidence in the northern track
favored by the EC, but it`s looking increasingly likely that
some of the precip along and/or south of I-80 will not fall as
snow. In fact, rain is more likely than snow along the KS state
line. The tier of counties along I-80 may see temps warm enough
to start off as rain and cool just enough for a few flakes to
fall as the precip ends around midnight Saturday night. In fact,
the current forecast has less than an inch of snow *fall* (not
snow *accumulation*) for areas south of Norfolk and Omaha. Of
course, if wet surfaces freeze on Saturday night, the lack of
snow won`t necessarily mean easy travel.

All guidance keeps the highest amounts of snow northeast of the
area where winter weather advisories and winter storm watches
have been issued. Current forecast has 2-4" of snow forecast for
Monona and Shelby Counties and a winter weather advisory may be
eventually issued for there if confidence grows. Minor travel
impacts are most likely (60-90%) just north and east of a line
from Des Moines to Sioux City where the HREF suggests a threat
of snowfall rates of 1" an hour. Accumulations there may push
4-7".

.SUNDAY...

Behind the departing system, temps plunge into the teens and
single digits by Sunday morning and Sunday`s highs will be about
10-15 degrees cooler than the day before. Sunday night will be
colder yet as wind chills dip as cold as -15F.

.NEXT WEEK...

Temps begin to moderate on Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday`s
low 40s being the closest we`ve been to climatological norms in
quite a spell (November 25). A shortwave pushes through the
central CONUS on Tuesday night, bringing a chance of precip to
the area, especially northeast of Omaha. Current PoPs hold at
about 20%, but being on the southern edge of the system and it
being the warmest day of the month so far... we may be answering
more questions about p-type.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with clouds
building in from the northwest at FL075 this morning. Expect
southwesterly winds to become northwesterly by mid-day. Isolated
flurries/sprinkles/and drizzle are possible at KOFK and KOMA
this afternoon and evening, but chances are low (10%) enough to
leave off the TAF forecasts for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

693
FXUS63 KGID 051129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
529 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Forecast remains dry through tonight...expecting warmer temps
  today with highs in the 40s.

- Next chance for precip moves into the area for Saturday-Sat
  evening. Overall best chances remain north of I-80, but the
  heaviest amounts expected to focus NNE of the forecast area.
  Expecting light amounts...models keep probabilities of snow
  totals exceeding 1 inch below 30 percent for areas mainly
  along/north of HWY 92. Light precip will be possible all the
  way down to near the NE/KS state line

- Forecast dries out for Sunday through Wednesday, though subtle
  shortwave disturbances crossing somewhere over the Plains will
  continue...confidence in any details are not high. Sunday is
  back in the 20s-30s, with 50s forecast by Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Seeing quiet conditions across the region early this morning,
with mostly clear to partly cloud skies as a patch of mainly
upper level clouds works its way through. Looking aloft, upper
air and satellite data show the region sitting under generally
northwesterly flow... with broad troughing spread across most of
the CONUS and areas of high pressure centered well off the west
and southeastern coasts. There are a number of shortwave
disturbances embedded in the larger scale flow...one of which
will continue working across the Dakotas through today. While
this disturbance is not expected to bring precipitation to the
forecast area, it will help to push a surface frontal boundary
through from west to east. Currently, winds across the area are
west-southwesterly...but will be turning more northwesterly
through the first half of the day behind this boundary. Late
this morning through at least mid-afternoon, gusts near 20-25
MPH will be possible. Expecting at least partly cloudy skies
through the day...and models continue to show a bump up in highs
this afternoon. No notable changes were made to forecast highs
today, which are mainly in the low-mid 40s...though spot in the
SW could flirt with 50 degrees.

No changes to the dry forecast continuing on into this evening
and tonight...with the next chances for precipitation moving
into the area for Saturday. Overall, models not showing any
significant changes for this forecast. The brunt of the lift
associated with this wave still looking to slide east roughly
along the NE/SD border...keeping the main axis of heavier
precipitation off to our NNE, giving us more of a glancing blow
shot of precip on the southern side of the wave. Main chances
remain along/north of I-80, but was a little more generous with
the coverage of slight/20 percent chances for precip, extending
them further south closer to the NE/KS state line. Kept the main
precip type as rain or snow depending on sfc temps...but it`s
not out of the question that at least a brief period of a light
wintry mix could occur in any transition area. Forecast remains
light as far as precip/snow amounts go...with continued support
for ensemble data. Looking at probabilities of 1 inch or more of
snow, the GFS ens. data remains higher than the ECMWF with
those chances, and even it only has about a 10-30 percent chance
roughly along/north of HWY 92. Winds switch back to the south
tonight ahead of the next frontal boundary, which will slide
through the area during the day on Saturday, ushering in another
shot of northwesterly winds. Models not showing excessive winds
from either direction...but speeds/gusts around 20 MPH are not
out of the question through Saturday. This continues to look to
be an overall minor event for our forecast area...with highs on
Saturday behind the precip potentially climbing well into the
40s/near 50 (mainly west of HWY 281). Further east, some
locations may struggle to get out of the 30s.

Looking out beyond Saturday, once this disturbance pushes east,
the forecast remains dry Sunday through Wednesday...though
confidence in this type of flow isn`t exactly high end, as it
can sometimes be tough to pin down subtle embedded disturbances.
Highs on Sunday are cooler in the 20s-30s...with highs
potentially climbing into the 50s area-wide by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Lingering cloud cover kept temperatures a bit on the cooler side
today, although western areas have risen into the 40s as skies
clear. Tonight, temperatures are expected to dip to around 20
degrees...pretty close to climatological normals for early
December.

On Friday, the passage of a surface trough will switch winds to
the northwest. Mid and high-level cloud cover is expected to
increase through the day, but temperatures still are
anticipated to reach the 40s for most of the area.

On Saturday, a weak shortwave moving through the northwesterly
flow pattern will bring a chance for precipitation (mainly snow)
to parts of the area. Global ensembles continue to indicate that
the best potential for measurable snow will be to our east.
Additionally, most of the snow would be falling during the
daytime with temperatures in the 30s...not a great recipe for
meaningful snow accumulation. As such, the probability for 1"+
has decreased to only 10-15% in areas north and east of Grand
Island. A light dusting is the most likely outcome at this
point, and many areas will miss out entirely.

Colder air will rush into the area behind this shortwave,
resulting in noticably cooler day for Sunday. High temperatures
are expected to remain below freezing for most of the area.

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you are a winter-lover), this
cooldown won`t last long. The deep trough over the eastern CONUS
will shift eastward, and rising heights aloft will favor a
warmup for Monday/Tuesday. Ensembles currently favor Tuesday to
be the warmest day (upper 40s and 50s for most). Additional
northwesterly-flow shortwaves are expected to push through the
are for the middle to end of next week, but confidence in timing
is quite low. This could bring rain/snow to parts of the area,
but anything significant/impactful looks pretty unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather and VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period.
Chances for precipitation associated with another upper level
disturbance moving through the region look to hold off until
just after this TAF period. Expecting variable cloud cover
through the period...and though some lower level clouds around
3000-4000ft will be possible, ceilings are expected to remain in
the mid-levels. Westerly winds this morning will be turning to
the northwest through the morning hours with the passage of a
surface frontal boundary...gusts near 20-25 MPH will be possible
around midday into the afternoon hours. Speeds taper off this
evening, with light/variable winds expected through the
overnight hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion