Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

104
FXUS63 KOAX 231735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue through
  afternoon and evening (15% chance of severe for any given
  storm), with the greatest risk between 2 PM and 8 PM.

- Dry conditions behind the front are driving extreme fire
  danger for areas of northeast Nebraska, with a Red Flag
  Warning in effect.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday
  (60-90%).

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad mid/upper trough
pushing to the south and east with forcing for ascent apparent
already over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Recent surface
observations show the front draped from south-central Nebraska into
northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa with a slow move to the east
set through the afternoon. This system has brought with it strong
winds throughout the vertical column, helping to increase shear
while lapse rates to work along with steep lapse rates to provide a
favorable environment for severe storms. Even now, increasing
vertical development is occurring over northeast Nebraska,
where updrafts aided by mid/upper height falls and frontal
convergence.

Just to keep things organized, I`ll set out the main expectations
for the day and get further into the hazard. Initial showers and
storms are ongoing across northeast Nebraska, as updrafts fight
weak capping at 850-700 mb. These showers and storms are
expected to be strong to marginally severe, with only a handful
of storms being able to make it past the inhibition to reach a
stronger level. This area will generally be limited to areas
north of a line from Columbus to Wahoo through 1 PM. Between 1
and 3 PM, stronger storm development will become likely. Strong
to severe storms will begin to initiate, and be more isolated at
first as weaker updrafts fail fail to break through. Those
cells will be more likely the farther north you move along the
front, and this semi-isolated storm regime will continue until 5
PM. Those cells will initiate generally east of a line From
there, further erosion of any capping inversion will occur and
the largely in-line component of deeper-shear vectors will help
dive upscale growth, and transition storm mode into a liner/QLCS
character as it pushes east and out of the forecast area by 8
PM.

Getting into hazards, the more isolated storms will hold the
greatest threat for hail, as they will be able to maintain rotating
mid/level mesocyclones and tap into the steep lapse rates. Hail
analogs up and down the line show plenty potential for 2+ inch hail,
with some curvature in the lower hodograph to support an isolated
tornado threat. As storms grow upscale, hail would become less
favored, transitioning to wind, QLCS tornado, and marginal hail as
the hazards. The best tornado potential will be associated with
storms that can bend back a bit to be northwest, or where remnants
of any supercells remain embedded in the line. This QLCS regime will
then push eastward, limiting the training that could occur and limit
the overall flood threat.

Not to be forgotten, very dry conditions will fall into place behind
the front with RH values between 10-25% and winds increasing to 20-
30 mph. A wind shift will push through late this evening and
increase to 40 mph gusts, but with increasing RH at that point.
Those factors are pushing fire danger into the extreme category for
northeast Nebraska, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 PM
for the threat.

Friday and Beyond:

A generally busy pattern is on tap entering the weekend into next
week. Numerous chances for rainfall will move through the area,
driven first by the leftover low spinning over southern Canada
before it gets kicked out by a deepening shortwave that pushes east
from the Pacific Coast later next week. The main period to watch for
will be Sunday into early Monday, where widespread rainfall is set
to move into the area, and potentially some strong storms as well
based on latest machine-learning output. The timing of that system
will entirely dictate if severe weather occurs; a late arrival that
delays most of the rainfall until nighttime would greatly hamper
severe potential. Nevertheless, we should do some good work to make
back some much-needed rainfall to the area as temperatures in the
50s and 60s continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period at KOFK, while
KOMA and KLNK deal with strong to severe storms shortly. A line
of storms is building to the west of these locations, set to
arrive 1930-2000z lasting for 1-2 hours. As the move through,
potentially strong winds will be possible (greater than 35 kts)
along with hail, and possibly a tornado. Ceilings will dip into
MVFR territory, with visibilities following suit or staying just
above at 6 miles. Once it passes through, winds will become
somewhat variable and then turn northwesterly once the larger
wind shift arrives. There will likely be some increase in gusts
as it arrives for a few hours, before dissipating overnight
while staying out of the north.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016-017-030-031-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

927
FXUS63 KGID 231756
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions area-wide into early this
  evening (Red Flag Warning has been expanded to our ENTIRE
  forecast area through 8 PM).

- Although increasingly-likely that our forecast area will be
  slightly-spared any severe storm threat this afternoon-early
  evening (albeit could be a VERY close call especially in the
  Thayer County vicinity), a few weak storms could still affect
  our extreme southeast counties through mid- afternoon.

- Multiple rounds of showers/storms possible (40-85%) Friday
  night- Monday morning, with the overall highest chances (60-85%)
  on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Southerly winds remain breezy this morning, gusting 25-35mph ahead
of an approaching cold front. The cold front currently located along
an Ord-Cozad line will push east/southeast across the area this
morning, reaching the Tri-Cities around sunrise, and the Highway 81
corridor during the late morning hours-noon. A few scattered
showers/weak storms are possible along and ahead of the front
through the morning hours.

Overall, models remain on track with the faster frontal
progression (timing as stated above), with strong/severe storms
developing east of the area (all 00z HREF members develop storms
25+ miles east of the area). Still, there remains a low chance
for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front during
the early afternoon hours before the cold front exits
southeastern portions the area. CAPE and shear values would be
sufficient for these storms to quickly become severe, capable of
all hazards. The window for severe potential looks to be short
and limited to far east/southeastern portions of the area (areas
along/southeast of a Hebron-Beloit line).

Cooler but still seasonably warm weather is expected behind the
front with highs in the 70s. A drier airmass will also be in place,
with afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens.
Breezy west-norththwesterly winds gusting 20-30mph are
expected, strongest west of Highway 281. The breezy winds and
low humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions
across western portions of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect 10am to 8pm today. Widespread near-critical to briefly
critical fire weather conditions are possible outside of the
warning, especially in counties bordering the Red Flag Warning.
Lows tonight will drop into the 30s and 40s, coldest across
northwestern portions of the area where patchy frost is
possible.

A broad upper level low will sit over the northern Rockies/Plains on
Friday. Dry weather is expected during the daytime hours with highs
in the 60s and 70s. Lighter winds (gusts 20mph or less) keep fire
weather concerns low despite afternoon relative humidity values of
15-25%. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track with
multiple rounds of precipitation moving through the area Friday
night-Monday morning. The overall highest chances look to be on
Sunday, with scattered to widespread rain across the area.
Accumulations of 0.50"-1.00" are possible in areas that see multiple
rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday (10 AM-8
 PM) for roughly the northwest half of our CWA. This MIGHT
  actually be our last critical fire weather concern for several
  days, which would be welcomed! Please refer to separate Fire
  Weather section below for all further discussion on this
  topic.

- Decreasing severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday afternoon-
  evening: What a change 24 hours has made! Yesterday, various
  forecast models slowed down the passage of Thursday`s cold
  front/dryline...seemingly bringing at least the eastern one-
  third to perhaps one-half of our CWA "under the gun" for a
  severe storm threat during the afternoon-evening. However,
  overnight model runs (and continuing into today) have abruptly
  sped up this front again...in turn firing up any severe storms
  at least SLIGHTLY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. Out of
  an abundance of caution, SPC has for now maintained an
  official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for a few of our far east-
  southeast counties on their latest Day 2 outlook, but they did
  shift the western edges of their Marginal Risk (level 1) to
  the east of Hwy 281. IN SUMMARY: barring a surprising "last
  minute" shift back west (unlikely but cannot totally rule it
  out just yet), the threat for severe storms in our CWA on
  Thursday appears to have diminished quite a bit versus 24
  hours ago.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. April 29):
-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Overall, today has turned out very much as expected: Windy
(southerly gusts 30-40 MPH with spotty 45 MPH) and warm, with
highs on track to top out mainly 80-86 degrees. It`s also
remained rain/storm-free.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm the onset of a more
active weather pattern these next several days, as we are under
increasing southwesterly flow aloft...downstream from a potent
shortwave trough/closed low currently churning through the
Northern Rockies. Down at the surface, the pressure gradient has
really tightened up across our Central Plains region today,
driven by a strong (roughly 990 millibar) low pressure center
over eastern MT, which has in turn kicked up our stout southerly
winds.


- THIS EVENING (mainly pre-midnight):
The vast majority of our CWA will surely remain dry and
continued windy/breezy out of the south (gusts at least 25-35
MPH even after dark), as a surface trough/weak cold front slowly
approaches our area from the west-northwest. Technically, the
EXTREME western fringes of our CWA (mainly western
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) remain under a Marginal Risk for a rogue
severe storm via the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, and we are
carrying some low-end chances/PoPs to cover this possibility.
However, high-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) strongly suggest that
the vast majority of this activity should remain at least 25-50
miles west of our CWA altogether...with storms tracking more
north than east. That being said, we will have to keep an eye on
our western fringes...just in case a non-zero thunderstorm
threat does materialize.

- LATE OVERNIGHT (post midnight):
As the early morning hours go by, the surface cold front will
gradually invade our CWA from west-to-east...reaching roughly
halfway through by sunrise. Ahead of this boundary, southerly
winds will remain breezy but gradually diminish in speed, while
behind the boundary breezes will switch to out of the northwest.

As for rain/thunderstorm chances, odds still favor MOST areas
staying dry. That being said, some fairly weak elevated
instability (rooted mainly above 800 millibars) could spark some
isolated/scattered showers and possibly some weak thunderstorms.
These could occur almost anywhere in our CWA, but appear to
MOSTLY favor counties along/north of I-80. That being said,
chances are currently no higher than 20-40%.

As for low temps, they will hold up well into the upper 50s-low
60s most places (aided in part by a large mass of low clouds
expected to overspread most of our CWA), with some cooler low-
mid 50s sneaking into only our far west-northwest counties
around/just after sunrise as drier air moves in there first.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
As already highlighted above, the faster passage of the frontal
boundary/dryline represent a fairly big change versus
expectations from 24 hours ago.

The morning starts with lingering low-level clouds mainly over
the eastern 1/3 of our CWA, while mid-high level clouds linger
central/west. There MIGHT be a few lingering showers/weak storms
over our eastern counties in the morning-early afternoon as
well, but these appear to be far from "soaking rains". Out of
caution as much as anything (and in line with SPC Day 2
Outlook), we linger some small thunderstorm chances into our
far east-southeast counties during the late afternoon-early
evening, but latest HRRR/NAMNest focus most all severe potential
now 25-50 miles east-southeast of our CWA altogether.

In other departments: The post-frontal west-northwesterly
breezes will take over our entire area, generally sustained
10-20 MPH/gusting 15-30 MPH (highest west/weakest east). High
temps were changed very little, ranging mid-upper 70s north/west
to low 80s south/southeast.


- THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Any thunderstorm chances that might have existed quickly wane,
with skies becoming mostly clear in the wake of the passing
upper disturbance. Northerly breezes will average at least 5-10
MPH, which will keep temps from "tanking" too far, but still
lows will be quite a bit cooler than tonight...aimed from mid-
upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s southeast (very low chance
for a little frost far northwest around Ord?...not currently in
official forecast).


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
The vast majority of the day-early evening looks dry as breezes
shift from northerly to more easterly. High temps aimed 60s
north to low-70s south. However, already by early evening and
especially overnight, some low-end rain/weak thunderstorm
chances arrive from the west...mainly targeting our northern
counties per latest model data.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
While not a non-stop rain situation by ANY means, this will be
an overall-active few days as another large-scale shortwave
trough gradually approaches/invades our region from the west-
southwest. Although rain chances/PoPs are at least no higher
than 50% for Saturday, they still might be overdone. However,
more widespread and higher-confidence chances arrive Sunday-
Sunday night with the main wave...during which time much of our
area COULD pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain. Although far too
early to pinpoint details, at least our southern counties MAY
need monitored for a strong to severe storm threat mainly
Sunday...although this would appear to mainly be an elevated
storm threat (meaning mainly hail). High temps both days aimed
mainly 60s, with lows mainly upper 30s-40s.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Various, intermittent chances for rain shower and mainly weak
thunderstorms continue, as our flow aloft remains quasi-zonal
(west-east) before turning more southwesterly mid-week.
Temperatures continue to lean at least slightly toward the
cooler side (especially compared to lately), with highs aimed
mainly upper 50s-upper 60s...and lows mainly mid 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and
precipitation-free conditions through the period, with fairly-
breezy winds this afternoon-evening being the only real
aviation concern.

Sustained west-northwesterly speeds this afternoon-early evening
will prevail 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT. By around 01Z a weak
boundary dropping in from the north will turn direction more
northerly, with gusts at least 20-25KT still likely through at
least 04Z (could even have brief gusts to 30KT). Winds will
certainly be lighter during the latter half of the period late
tonight through Friday morning (mainly 10KT or less) as
direction remains northerly most of the time, but starts to turn
more easterly from late-morning into early afternoon especially
at KEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- 1030 AM UPDATE REGARDING REST OF TODAY:
The Red Flag Warning previously in effect for roughly the
northwest half of our forecast area (CWA) has since been
expanded to now include our ENTIRE forecast area (in effect
until 8 PM). The main forecast change that prompted this
expansion is that wind speeds/gusts were increased as much as 5
MPH versus previous forecast. More specifically, much of the day
into early evening will feature sustained winds out of the west-northwest
15-25 MPH, with gusts commonly up to around 30 MPH (even 35 MPH
especially in our northern/western counties). The relative
humidity (RH) forecast has changed little...with our entire
forecast area expected to drop to at least 10-15 percent behind
a passing cold front.

The most "marginal" counties in the Warning (least likely to
solidly meet criteria for 3+ hours) are those in our extreme
southeastern CWA (particularly Thayer/Jewell/Mitchell
counties). However, with at least brief critical conditions a
good bet even in those counties, opted to expand to our entire
CWA out of caution.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion