Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

473
FXUS63 KOAX 180457
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler, quiet day is expected Thursday with widely scattered
  showers and thunderstorms possible by Friday.

- Widespread thunderstorm chances return to the area on
  Saturday. Severe weather will be possible for portions of the
  area during this time.

- Significant rainfall accumulations are possible with
  Saturday`s thunderstorms. A few areas could see several inches
  of rainfall in a short period of time. Flash flooding may be
  a concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

After a hot, dry, and windy afternoon on Wednesday, much
quieter weather is settling into the region tonight into
Thursday morning. Surface high pressure results in cooler
temperatures under mostly sunny skies with light winds Thursday
afternoon. A beautiful day in the 70s to low 80s can be
expected. Heading into Friday, the pattern remains relatively
quiet outside of a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will be spurred on by a fast-moving trough north of
the area during the morning to afternoon hours. These showers
and thunderstorms will be working with limited moisture, so
little impact is anticipated. Overall, partly cloudy skies and
temperatures a touch warmer than Thursday is likely for most on
Friday.

Our next major weather system is set to arrive late in the day
on Saturday. A pronounced trough will move from the central
Rockies into the central Plains, helping to weaken the ridge. As
this occurs, increasing moisture will surge north into the area
over steepening lapse rates. This will set the stage for
thunderstorms later in the day on Saturday. In the meantime,
temperatures remain in the 80s with partly cloudy skies into the
afternoon. As the trough ejects into the Plains, thunderstorms
are forecast to develop over the higher elevations before
pushing east as an organized line or cluster late in the
afternoon and evening. At this time, the best chance of
thunderstorms for our area appears to be Saturday evening into
Saturday night. Plentiful instability and sufficient wind shear
will be in place to support severe weather. The limited
convective-allowing guidance that goes out that far are
highlighting the potential for widespread damaging winds across
parts of the central Plains if a line of thunderstorms does
form. That said, the environment does appear supportive of large
hail and a couple tornadoes also.

On top of top of the severe weather potential, flash flooding
may be a growing concern. Abundant precipitable water will
filter into the region from the south by Saturday. This will
support very efficient rainfall rates from any thunderstorms
that form. If a large thunderstorm complex does from and impact
the region as the latest forecast models tend to indicate. A
corridor of several inches of rainfall in a short period of time
may develop. This would pose at least some risk of flashing
flooding. This is highlighted by the excessive rainfall outlook
across much of our area for Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, cooler and quieter weather will return, at
least briefly, for Sunday and potentially Monday as the system
departs. While the exact details remain unclear for next week,
an overall active pattern looks to continue. A weakened ridge
with zonal flow across much of the central and northern CONUS
should support continued weather systems and rain chances
heading through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all three
terminals. Northwest winds are expected through around 22Z where
they shift to the north. All terminals may have a few spotty
showers in the vicinity of the terminals through 12Z, although
confidence in direct impacts to the terminals is low.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

627
FXUS63 KGID 180712
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
212 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly light rain showers/sprinkles across portions of the
  area overnight into the morning hours.

- Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Friday (up to 30%
  chance) with the highest chances Saturday night (up to near 100%
  chance).

- There is a threat of severe storms Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night with an overnight MCS likely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

North to northeast winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas with temperatures in the 60s and
70s. A shortwave is moving overhead now resulting in showers
developing and moving across the area. While most of the activity
should be in the form of showers, an isolated thunderstorm is
possible (20% or less chance). These showers are expected to
continue past sunrise but should be mostly, if not completely, out
of the area by this afternoon. Temperatures today will be cooler
with highs in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight are expected
to mostly be in the 50s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon (up to 30%
chance) and Friday night (up to 55% chance). Storms are not expected
to be severe Friday into Friday night. Rain and storm chances
increase even more Saturday (30% to near 90% chance) and Saturday
night (up to near 100% chance). Dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s
and CAPE values will mostly range from 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg during
the day on Saturday. A low-level jet may also develop over the
area Saturday evening/overnight which will enhance storm
development. Severe storms and heavy rainfall are still a threat
with an MCS likely moving across the area Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No big/major changes of note, with a few of the minor changes
  (mainly addition of a few rain chances prior to Friday night)
  outlined in Key Message above.

- Latest trends/thoughts regarding the Saturday afternoon-night
  severe storm/heavy rain threat:
We are still 24-36 hours away from this time frame getting into
the range of most higher-res models, and as a result plenty of
uncertainties remain in the finer details including most favored
parts of our forecast area (CWA) along with storm
intensity/threats. That being said, a glance at medium range
ECMWF/GFS solutions suggest MAYBE a slightly-reduced intensity
of convective environment (mainly somewhat lower
CAPE/instability values) compared to 24 hours ago...especially
within northern/northeast portions of our CWA. Although far too
soon to "take literally", the last few hours of the 12Z RRFS
(which goes through Saturday afternoon) suggests we could have
at least spotty convection (maybe strong/severe?) develop over
our CWA during the afternoon, while a more organized/larger-
scale storm complex develops over western NE/KS by late
afternoon that would then in theory track into our CWA during
the evening (potential damaging wind threat). That`s honestly as
much "detail" this forecaster is willing to give for an event
that is still mostly 72+ hours away, but at least trend-wise,
there is SOME suggestion (also supported by CSU machine-learning
guidance) that our southern/western CWA may end up being more
"under the gun" than our northern/eastern counties.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Wed. June
 24..but heavily focused on tonight-Sunday)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
Certainly no big surprises today, as fully expected it`s been a
fairly windy day by mid-June standards...with sustained north-
northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH, and
occasional gusts reaching 40 MPH (especially in our north).
Under widespread sunshine, high temps are on track to top out
low 80s north...to mid 80s central (including Tri Cities)...to
upper 80s-low 90s within counties along/south of the KS border.
As detailed over the last 24 hours, we have deemed grasses
(fuels) to be at least slightly "too green" to justify any
higher-end fire weather concerns, but with relative humidity
(RH) bottoming out as low as 20-25% mainly in our far southern
and western CWA this afternoon-early evening, we continue to
highlight near-critical fire weather concerns in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data confirm a shortwave
trough and accompanying seasonably-strong upper level jet streak
tracking through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...fueling a
Moderate Risk of severe storms well to our east centered over
IL/IN. Meanwhile at the surface, the main surface low pressure
center (around 992 millibars) is tracking through southeast MN,
with modest cold air advection/subsidence on the backside of the
system driving our gusty north-northwest winds here locally.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although mentioned as a possibility here 24 hours ago, we have
now officially introduced either a "slight chance of showers" or
"slight chance of sprinkles" to mainly the northern half of our
CWA (as far south as roughly Highway 6) for the post-midnight
hours. These rain chances are best described as minor-but-
tricky, as especially the HRRR (with support from other models)
paints a very narrow, west-east oriented stripe of light
measurable showers across mainly our far northern counties,
while other models (such as NAMNest) are more generous bringing
at least spotty activity farther south into our area. Our
current slight/20% rain chances in our far north may ultimately
not be nearly high enough, but at least we now have some rain
mention, and again, we are not talking heavy rainfall either.
The narrow/banded nature of this precip chance is due to upper
dynamics more typically seen during the colder season (intense
upper level jet/mid-level frontogenesis). Farther south, kept
the forecast dry overnight over our southern CWA/KS counties, as
any "true" elevated thunderstorm activity should remain at least
a few counties south of our CWA (mainly south of I-70).

In other departments, winds will steadily drop off toward
sunset, with gusts easing under 20 MPH most areas by 8-9 PM, and
then averaging only 5-10 MPH from the north-northwest through
the remainder of the night. Low temps are a little tricky
depending on how abundant/thick incoming mid-high level clouds
are, but have most areas bottoming out somewhere between 56-61.


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
First of all, those same light/pesky rain chances that start
late tonight have been lingered through mid-late Thursday
morning in our latest forecast...but for now simply in the form
of a "slight chance of sprinkles" for our entire CWA. Confidence
is just too low to introduce a measurable rain chance (PoP) at
this point in time (although a FEW areas could end up picking up
a few hundredths of an inch)...and confidence in
location/placement is too low to "rule out" any areas
either...with the HRRR mainly focused across our
northern/eastern counties while the NAMNest is more broad-
brushed in coverage. In summary: do not be caught off guard by s
few passing sprinkles or light rain showers Thurs AM.

By afternoon, high confidence in a return to dry conditions
CWA-wide as clouds decrease and give way to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Although not as windy as today for sure,
north/northwesterly wind speeds were nudged up slightly from
previous forecast, with much of the day now looking like
sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts around 20 MPH. High temps were nudged
up very slightly, but should still end up 3-8 degrees cooler
than today...ranging from upper 70s-low 80s in most Nebraska
counties, and mid 80s in our KS counties along with Furnas
County area.

Thursday evening-overnight, maintained a dry forecast as any
possible late-night showers are most favored to develop at least
slightly north or northeast of our CWA. Low temps mid-upper 50s.


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although these 24 hours should be MOSTLY DRY, weak upper waves
working through west-northwest flow aloft, in combination with
at least modest levels of instability returning northward into
our area (mainly elevated instability) has resulted in the
introduction of low-end shower/thunderstorm chances for the
daytime, and the continuation of chances for Friday night.
Although SPC has refrained from putting any of our CWA in a
Marginal Risk at this time, CAPE/deep layer wind shear appears
sufficient to possibly support a few stronger storms with mainly
a smaller hail threat (something to watch). Temp-wise, highs are
aimed very similar to Thursday (low-mid 80s), but with slightly
warmer lows Fri night mainly upper 50s-mid 60s.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Already covered some ATTEMPTED convective/severe thunderstorm
threat details in the "big picture" comments section above
(refer to that if you skipped over it), but the bottom line is
that especially the late afternoon-overnight hours remain a
concern for severe storms and possibly localized flooding as as
low amplitude upper wave interacts with an increasingly
moist/unstable airmass marked by surface dewpoints rising into
at least the mid 60s...with lower-level forcing provided by a
strong southerly low level jet. Hopefully more exact
timing/location/intensity details gradually become more clear as
this time frame enters the scope of higher-res models over the
next few days. High temps again similar to previous
days...mainly low-mid 80s but with upper 80s far
south/southwest.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Compared to 24 hours ago, latest ECMWF/GFS are more suggestive
that any severe storm threat should be shunted south-through-
west of our CWA in the wake of a weak cold front (likely
convective-outflow driven) from Saturday night. That being said,
at least low chances for showers/weak storms remain in the
forecast.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Keeping it very broad-based/basic here, the ECMWF/GFS keep us
under persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft, with occasional
low amplitude waves passing by. As a result, it should be mostly
dry but with occasional shower/thunderstorm chances. Severe
weather wise, instability looks fairly low for Mon-Tues but
MAYBE picks back up for Wednesday. Obviously a LOT of
uncertainty in any kind of mid- week severe chances next week.
Temperature-wise, highs all three days are currently aimed mid
70s-low 80s for most of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A band of
sprinkles has developed and started to make their way southward
towards the terminals. Meanwhile, a thick cloud layer has
expanded southward over the terminals around 10k feet. Skies
will start to clear up late this morning/early afternoon. Winds
will increase this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kts possible
this afternoon. Near the end of the forecast period, weak
surface winds will veer, becoming more southerly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion