Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

665
FXUS63 KOAX 292019
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
219 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Friday morning (30% chance), mainly
  across east-central Nebraska. Accumulations are expected to
  remain below one inch.

- Colder conditions today through Saturday, including Friday
  highs in the teens and Saturday morning wind chills from 10 to
  20 degrees below zero.

- Additional show chances (40-70%) return Saturday afternoon
  into early Sunday, followed by a warm-up toward near-normal
  temperatures by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict
broad troughing over the east-central CONUS, with ridging building
into the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft has kept high
temperatures confined to the low 20s today. Shortwave energy
pivoting across the Upper Midwest will continue to produce spotty
flurries across the area today. Any additional accumulations will be
limited to a dusting.

Tonight into Friday morning, another round of light snow is possible
across east-central Nebraska, mainly affecting the far western
portions of the forecast area, as modest forcing for ascent
overspreads a stalled boundary in central Nebraska. PoPs of 15-30%
remain in place, with any additional accumulations again expected to
be light, under one-half inch. Snow chances will diminish through
the day Friday as surface high pressure pushes into the region.

Through Friday, a tangled assortment of disturbances pivoting
through the Upper Midwest will act to further amplify the parent
trough and introduce a positive tilt. This evolving pattern will
usher a cooler airmass into the region, with Friday morning lows
falling into the single digits and wind chills of 5 to 15 degrees
below zero. Afternoon highs are only expected to reach the teens.

Saturday and Sunday...

The colder airmass will remain firmly in place Saturday morning,
with low temperatures falling into the single digits below zero and
wind chills ranging from 10 to 20 degrees below zero. Afternoon
highs on Saturday are expected to reach the 20s. Meanwhile, an
additional shortwave disturbance moving into the northern Plains
will induce surface cyclogenesis, with the low forecast to track
along the US/Canada border through the weekend while dragging an
associated frontal boundary southward. Along and ahead of this
boundary, snow chances will return to the area from early Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday, with PoPs in the 40-70% range.

Uncertainty remains regarding snowfall amounts this weekend.
EPS/EPS-AIFS continues to depict better moisture overall and a
farther south solution across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
compared to most GEFS members. That said, GEFS guidance has
trended slightly farther south with the snow axis, increasing
confidence that snowfall will occur, though expected amounts
remains uncertain. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance indicates a 60-90%
probability of at least once inch of snow across northeast
Nebraska, decreasing to around 30% near the NE/KS border. In
contrast, the GEFS probabilities peak at only 30- 40% in
northeast Nebraska. Forecast confidence in snow amounts will
continue to hinge on how these solutions converge as the system
approaches, though areas of 1-2 inches appear likely.

Snow is expected to exit the area during the first half of Sunday as
a mid- to upper-level ridge builds into the region. Temperatures
will respond quickly, with highs climbing into the 30s to
potentially the lower 40s. This quick warmup may briefly allow for a
rain-snow mix on the back edge of the departing precipitation shield
before precipitation fully ends.

Monday and Beyond...

Mid- to upper-level ridging will persist into the start of the work
week, supporting highs in the 30s to low 40s across the area. A mid-
level low moving into the northern Plains late Tuesday into
Wednesday will briefly dampen the ridge and bring low precipitation
chances back to the area, with PoPs in the 15-30% range. Long-range
guidance continues to show considerable spread in the track of this
feature, resulting in lower confidence in precipitation timing and
coverage at this time.

Ridging is then expected to rebuild across the region by midweek,
allowing a warmer airmass to return. Highs are forecast to climb
into the 40s, with some locations potentially reaching the low 50s
to end the work week. This warmer pattern appears likely to persist,
as both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal
temperatures along with below-normal precipitation totals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Patchy MVFR conditions continue late this morning as
light snow pushes across the area. Snow will gradually taper off
into the afternoon, bringing periods of VFR conditions.
However, transient areas of light snow/flurries will continue
through the period (20% chance). Confidence is low in time or
location of impacts from these light snow showers, leaving
amendments to be made if needed. Additional accumulations will
be minimal (under 0.25"). Patchy MVFR conditions will be
possible under any showers that pass through.

Tonight into Friday morning, a band of MVFR ceilings will push
into east-central Nebraska, likely pushing into KOFK and KLNK,
with lower confidence in impacts at KOMA. Light snow will once
again be possible, particularly at KOFK, though confidence is
too low (25% chance) in this occurrence to include in the TAFs
at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

243
FXUS63 KGID 292043
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
243 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow possible Friday as a band of snow moves southwest across
  the area. Accumulations of 1" or less are expected.

- Frigid weather expected Saturday morning with temperatures
  below zero and wind chills in the negative 10s.

- Another round of light snow is possible Saturday afternoon/evening.
  Accumulations of 1" or less expected.

- Above normal temperatures return Sunday onwards with highs in
  the 40s/50s and lows in the 10s/20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

This afternoon/evening...

Temperatures are currently sitting in the 20s to 30s this afternoon.
A few lingering snow showers are dissipating across
southeastern portions of the area. A few additional snow showers
may develop/impact areas mainly along/north of Interstate 80
through the evening hours. Little if any accumulation (up to a
couple of tenths) is expected with these showers.

Tonight-Saturday...

Another round of snow showers/bands develops overnight across
northern Nebraska as troughing deepens over the central U.S. This
snow will enter northern portions of the area during the early
morning hours on Friday. Around sunrise, areas most favored to see
snow will be along and northeast of the Tri-Cities. Snow will
steadily shift southwest across the area Friday morning-
afternoon as an arctic high moves into the area. Any remaining
snow is favored to exit far southwestern portions of the area
during the late afternoon-early evening hours. Cloud coverage
and increasing cold air advection Friday afternoon will confine
highs to the teens (northeast) and 20s (southwest).

Skies clear and winds decrease Friday night-Saturday morning under
the high pressure system. This will result in favorable conditions
for temperatures to drop below zero Saturday morning. Light
winds should keep wind chills in the negative teens, and just
shy of "official" advisory criteria. Stronger winds look to
arrive in the mid-late morning hours, just past the coldest
temperatures and avoiding more frigid wind chills. Southerly
flow strengthens on Saturday ahead of an approaching clipper
system, allowing highs to reach the 20s despite the cold start.

As the clipper system moves into the area Saturday afternoon, it
will bring another chance for light snow to the area. This band of
snow will moves west to east across the area. There remains some
uncertainty in regards to how widespread and how far south this band
of snow develops. The 12z ECMWF shows a more robust band that
impacts all of our Nebraska counties and portions of north-central
Kansas, whereas the NAM and GFS keep snow across northern portions
of the area or even north of the area entirely. Either way, any snow
that falls in this band will be light, with accumulations generally
under an inch. Any lingering snow would exit eastern portions of the
area by the late evening hours.

Sunday Onwards...

Ridging builds over the Rockies and Plains on Sunday and Monday
allowing temperatures to climb above above normal, in the 40s and
50s. A passing disturbance brings a low (15-20%) chance for precip
on Tuesday, though the best chances look to be east of the area at
this time. Otherwise northwesterly flow-ridging is expected through
the end of the forecast period/end of next week. Highs will
generally be in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 10s/20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SUB-VFR conditions likely during TAF period. Snow showers are
likely to remain north of the TAF sites through the evening
hours, but there is a low (15%) chance that one could still
develop/impact. Higher chances for snow and MVFR ceilings move
into the TAF sites after midnight. There remains uncertainty on
how widespread any snow showers/bands would be, and the
timing/duration of any snow. Have opted to use PROB30 groups to
indicate the potential for MVFR ceilings and visibility in
snow. It is possible that IFR conditions may be realized in
showers, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF/PROB30
group at this time. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are favored
sunrise-mid morning hours when snow is most likely to occur
along with the most widespread stratus deck. Any snow will be
light with less than an inch of accumulation. Snow is favored to
stop by the end of the TAF period, with ceilings becoming VFR
just past the TAF period.

Light and variable winds are expected through the overnight
hours. Around sunrise on Friday winds become northeasterly
around 10-15kts, strongest at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion