72°F
Updated:
7/23/2026
3:05:39pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
933 FXUS63 KOAX 231802 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into Friday morning. Patchy rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1 inch are expected, especially across southeast Nebraska. - Highs will remain in the 70s today and rise into the 80s Friday before jumping into the 90s to near 100 degrees Saturday. - Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching 105 to 115 degrees Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Today and Tomorrow... A few widely scattered showers are moving across the area this afternoon as a shortwave disturbance crosses central Nebraska and directs low-level moisture transport into the region. Rainfall amounts this afternoon will remain light, generally limited to a trace to a few hundredths of an in inch. Persistent cloud cover will hold high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Northwesterly flow aloft is also bringing a bit of wildfire smoke to the area, with small concentrations making it the surface. Precipitation chances will increase after midnight as another shortwave disturbance pivots into the region. Strengthening low- level moisture transport and a nocturnal LLJ directed into southeast Nebraska will support another round of scattered showers. Sufficient elevated instability will also be present for a few embedded thunderstorms overnight, particularly across southeast Nebraska. The environment will support efficient rainfall production, with PWAT values rising slightly above 2 inches, exceeding the 90th percentile of sounding climatology, and warm-cloud depths reaching 4- 4.5 km. Rainfall totals will depend on where the heavier bands of showers track but amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are expected across much of the area, with isolated totals exceeding 1 inch possible. Latest HREF guidance indicates a 40-80% probability of at least 0.50 inch and a 30-60% probability of at least 1 inch, with the highest probabilities across southeast Nebraska. Showers will gradually clear from west to east Friday morning, with most of the area dry by noon. Cloud cover will slowly break up and improve behind the departing precipitation shield, allowing afternoon highs to recover into the upper 80s across eastern Nebraska and mid 70s towards southwest Iowa. Saturday and Beyond... Mid- to upper-level ridging will amplify and expand northeastward into the region this weekend, resulting in a warming trend. A corridor of 25 to 30 degrees C temperatures at 850 mb will spread across the area, while continued low-level moisture transport and evapotranspiration push dewpoints well into the 70s and potentially near 80 degrees across southwest Iowa. Confidence is high that the weekend will be hot and humid, with model guidance continuing to trend upward on temperatures. GFS/GEFS appear to mix too deeply into the very warm air aloft, producing surface temperatures of 105 to 115 degrees that are likely too high. EPS guidance appears more reasonable, with highs generally in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, though it maintains higher dewpoints. The latest forecast package calls for highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees Saturday, with heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees. Heat is expected to peak Sunday and Monday, when highs reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees and heat index values climb into the 105 to 115 degree range. Heat headlines will likely be needed, especially given the limited overnight relief as low temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s. Confidence in Monday`s temperatures is somewhat lower as a shortwave disturbance rounds the ridge, potentially weakening it and bringing cloud cover/precipitation to the area. Long-range guidance remains split on the exact timing and track of these disturbances, but a front will likely move southward across the region sometime Monday into Tuesday, shifting low-level flow to northeasterly and steadily lowering dewpoints behind the front. The timing of this front will be important, as an earlier passage could reduce peak heat index values across portions of the area Monday. Additional disturbances will move through during the work week, gradually weakening the ridge and bringing highs closer to seasonal norms in the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday and beyond. Periodic PoPs of 15-30% remain in place through the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 VFR conditions are favored into the evening, with a broken to overcast cloud deck at FL060-090. A few widely scattered showers will move across the area this afternoon, with the highest chance of impacts at KLNK (30% chance). Showers will increase in coverage after 24/06Z, with periods of rain likely (70-90% chance) at every terminal into Friday morning. Thunderstorm chances peak in southeast Nebraska, primarily at KLNK. Ceilings will gradually decrease through this period, with MVFR and patchy IFR conditions likely at all terminals. Showers will clear from west to east, with ceilings improving just past the end of the forecast period. Winds will remain calm and out of the south, taking on a southeasterly component through the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
417 FXUS63 KGID 231648 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers/t-storms tonight, then drying out for the weekend. - Extreme heat returns this weekend into early next week. - Low chances (20-30%) for rain return Tuesday-Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Light showers linger across portions of the area late this morning and will gradually clear from west to east this afternoon. Like yesterday, lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side...only topping out in the low 70s across much of central Nebraska. This is a large departure from western Kansas where mostly clear skies will allow highs to approach 100 degrees in many areas. This evening, convection is expected to develop over western Kansas. Initially, convective parameters would favor a few of these storms becoming strong to severe. These storms should generally weaken as they move northeastward into our area later in the evening hours, but some sub-severe hail cannot be ruled out in portions of northern Kansas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist into Friday morning. In all, some locations could see an additional 1.00-1.50", but most spots likely will only see 0.25" or less. These showers are anticipated to clear by mid morning, resulting in a drier and warmer afternoon for Friday. This warming trend continues into the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the central CONUS. Temperatures likely reach the 90s across the entire area Saturday, with some locations approaching 100 degrees on both Sunday and Monday. Heat index values near 105 degrees are likely (50% chance) in at least some areas on Saturday, and are a near certainty (80%) on Sunday/Monday. Some areas (especially the eastern half) could even see heat index values exceed 110 degrees on Sunday/Monday (40-50% chance). If these trends hold, heat headlines are likely to be issued on upcoming shifts. The upper ridge weakens with a few disturbances by the middle of next week. As such, temperatures trend a bit cooler with some chances for rain. That said, meaningful rain is far from a guarantee at this point. Many global ensemble members maintain dry or mostly dry conditions for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Ceilings improve to VFR as showers clear the area this afternoon. Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms return tonight, along with a round of low stratus. There is a relatively high chance (50-70%) for IFR ceilings in the 10-15Z timeframe. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels
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