Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

171
FXUS63 KOAX 201048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 30-40+ mph Monday into Tuesday will
  lead to increased fire danger, mainly for unharvested crop
  fields.

- Widespread frost and some freezing seems likely Tuesday night
  into Wednesday and again Wednesday night into Thursday.

- The next notable precipitation chances arrive Thursday
  night/Friday with a 30-60% chance of rain near and south of
  Interstate 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Satellite shows a few high clouds over northeast Nebraska this
morning, but the rest of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa
remain clear. Winds are out of the south ahead of a approaching
cold front that will sweep across the area today. A low pressure
system is sitting over central South Dakota this morning with
the cold front draped south currently between Valentine and
O`niell. As this cold front moves across the area today we could
see a few spotty light showers across northeast Nebraska, but
the main concern for today will be the strong northwesterly
winds behind the cold front moving into the area. Expect winds
gusting 30 to 40 mph, strongest in northeast Nebraska this
afternoon, becoming weaker this evening. We should mostly stay
just below Advisory criteria, but we could potentially see a few
gusts to 45 mph. With these winds comes increased fire
potential, mainly for agricultural fields as fuels remain too
green for more widespread extreme fire danger.

Winds will ramp back up again Tuesday morning as sunrise brings
mixing of stronger winds aloft back down to the surface. Expect
wind gusts again 30 to 40 mph starting mid-morning, starting to
weaken through the afternoon as the pressure gradient starts to
relax with the Low continuing to progress off to the east.
Again, we could see fire concerns with regard to agricultural
fields, but probably not widespread concerns.

Going into midweek, the upper-level pattern shows the cut-off
Low off the coast of southern California finally getting picked
back up into the upper-level flow pushing it east into the
Desert Southwest. This will amplify a ridge over the Central
CONUS. Despite the building ridge, we don`t ever see the warmer
air as the surface low develops to southwest keeping us under
cooler northwesterly flow. With calming surface winds, we`ll see
temperatures plummet Tuesday night into early Wednesday with a
good chance for widespread frost across northeast Nebraska and
areas of frost across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Temperatures will be falling into the low-to-mid 30s. Despite
the cool start, we`ll still be warming into the low-to-mid 60s
by the afternoon under mostly clear skies. Thursday will be
similar with a cool start (potential for another morning of
frost) with temperatures again warming into the low-to-mid 60s
by the afternoon.

Towards the end of the week we see the aforementioned surface
low associated with the previously cut-off low travel eastward
into Kansas and Oklahoma, bringing a rain shield north of the
Low into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Friday. This
means showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though nothing
severe expected due to limited shear and instability north of
the warm front and surface Low. Will likely be a fairly sharp
cut-off for who sees rain and who doesn`t, but due to
uncertainty in the exact track of this system, we do have rain
chances as far north as Omaha and Council Bluffs.

Rain chances end Saturday morning as the Low tracks off to the
east. As this happens another Ridge builds in behind it,
bringing quiet, dry conditions for the rest of Saturday into
Sunday. Another strong trough moves in on Monday bringing
another period of unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

A cold front will move across the area this morning bringing in
strong northwesterly winds. LLWS this morning will diminish by
14Z with VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds move in with gusts to 30KT, occasional gusts
to 35KT possible. Potential for another period of LLWS overnight
tonight depending on how much surface winds weaken. For now
leaving it out of the TAFs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

853
FXUS63 KGID 201132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today (gusts to 45 MPH) and breezy Tuesday (gusts to 35
  MPH) with near critical fire weather concerns both afternoons.

- Seasonal temperatures (60s) through the end of the week with
  potentially frosty mornings both Wednesday and Thursday. A few
  sub-freezing temperatures may be possible in the typically
  coolest spots.

- Spotty trace amount rain chances this afternoon/early evening.
  Otherwise, rain chances increase Thursday evening into
  Friday, especially for areas south of Interstate 80. A few
  thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Breezy southerly winds were observed across the local area
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front crossing the
Sandhills early this morning. These winds have helped to keep
overnight temperatures on the mild side, or about 10-15 degrees
above yesterday mornings frosty lows. While winds will subside
(and temperatures drop a bit) just ahead of the cold front over
the next couple of hours, strong northwesterly winds are
anticipated in its wake by mid morning...with gusts of 40 to 45
MPH possible this afternoon.

Given the strong winds and a relatively dry airmass (with
minimum RH values expected to fall to between 25 and 30
percent), near critical fire weather concerns are anticipated
area wide this afternoon. In addition...a few light showers or
sprinkles may be possible late this afternoon or early evening
(as indicated in the CAMS and supported by some minimal elevated
instability), but little to no accumulation is anticipated
(trace amounts). While winds will diminish some behind the front
this evening, they are forecast to remain steady between 5-10
mph and out of the northwest overnight, as the surface ridge
will remain well west of the local area. These steady winds
should help keep the lowest layers of atmosphere mixed, and
prevent temperatures to dropping off and allowing for any frost
Tuesday morning.

While not as windy as Monday, breezy northwest winds with gusts
of 30 to 35 MPH will be possible Tuesday afternoon, with minimum
relative humidity values once again being the limiting factor
for more critical fire weather concerns. That said...elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions seem likely, and
continued the mention in the morning HWO.

With a ridge of surface high pressure shifting east across the
local area late Tuesday through Wednesday, light winds will
return to the local area...which combined with clear skies and a
seasonably cool airmass, could bring some frosty conditions back
to the area both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. At this point,
sub-freezing temperatures look to be limited to the typical
coldest spots, with most location currently forecast to bottom
out in the mid-30s both days.

Some model discrepancy thereafter with the track and coverage
of precipitation with an upper level low coming from the four
corners region, but at least the southern half of the area...and
possibly extending as far north as the I-80 corridor...will see
an increasing chance for precipitation along with a chance for
some thunderstorms late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions anticipated through the period.

Expect light and shifting winds over the next hour or so as a
cold front rapidly approaches, then crosses, the terminals.
Behind this front, expect northwesterly winds to increase by
mid-morning...with occasional gusts 30+ KTS. In addition,
expect to see some varying mid level cloud cover, but CIGS will
remain VFR. Winds should eventually diminish late in the day to
near 10 KTS or so by 21/00...with some marginal LLWS possible
out of the north during the late night hours (although not
included in 12Z TAFS given uncertainty in meeting criteria).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion