Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

891
FXUS63 KGID 282037
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for a few of our
  east/southeast counties until 10PM tonight
  (Hamilton/Adam/Webster/Smith/Osborne counties) with counties
  including and south of Polk and Clay in NE and Jewell in KS
  now in effect until 9PM Monday.

- Highs Monday will again be expected to peak in the 90s to low
  100s across the area with heat index values as high as 100-107
  possible within the Advisory area.

- A few storms may pop up along a passing cold front Monday
  afternoon to night. It is uncertain how expansive the coverage
  of storms may become, though the best potential currently
  looks to be concentrated more towards the central to eastern
  portions of the area.

- The strongest storms Monday afternoon/evening may be capable
  of producing wind gusts in exceedance of 60MPH with hail up to
  the size of quarters possible.

- The rest of the week will look to maintain highs between the
  upper 80s to low 100s with occasional off-and-on period of
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026


Warm and humid air has made its push into the area today following
the passage of a warm front this morning. Temperatures in the 90s to
low 100s today with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s have helped
inflate heat index values to as high as 100-107 across far eastern
portions of the area (places with the higher humidity and under the
heat advisory). In terms of heat relief tonight for areas south and
east of the Tri-Cities, temperatures will not be expected to drop
below the upper 70s to low 80s (warmest lows across a few Kansas
locations or Nebraska areas near and east of HWY-81).

The main change this forecast cycle has been the decision to locally
extend the furthest eastern row of counties within today`s heat
advisory (Mitchell to Clay to Polk counties) until 9PM Monday. This
decision comes as heat indices may once again near/exceeded 105
degrees Monday afternoon for these locations with limited overnight
heat relief expected tonight into Monday morning. The latest forecast
now highlights similar temperatures returning (possibly a degree or
two lower than today) with lingering moisture content (upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints) that will keep conditions fairly similar on
Monday. The one saving grace that could provide some heat relief may
come from the presence of gusty southerly winds or even a few
clouds building in during the later afternoon hours.

The southerly winds today will continue to increase this evening and
overnight as wind speeds are expected to peak near 20-25MPH with
gusts as high as 30-35+. These breezy condition should stick around
for much of the night. Gusty winds lingering into the day Monday
will later settle for much of the central to northwestern portions
of the area. Far southern and eastern portions of the area,
however, may still retain periods of gusty winds during the
afternoon and evening hours (up to 25-35MPH gusts possible).
Thankfully, the areas expected to have the greatest heat and
humidity impacts will also be some of the same areas that likely
receive these gusty winds or even some scattered cloud coverage
later on.

Confidence regarding the storm potential for Monday afternoon to
night has began to narrow some. A few storms, some of which may
become severe, could form as a cold front passes through from west
to east. Though a few storms could possibly fire off anywhere along
this front (The NAMNEST model is more aggressive with storm coverage
than some of the other models), the general consciences places the
better storm potential across primarily the central (Tri-Citries
area) as well as eastern to northern portions of the area (locations
with the higher humidity and convective environment). Given the hot
temperatures, MUCAPE values of up to 2,000-4,000J/kg would be
available for storms to take advantage of as well as some 35-55kts
of bulk shear in regards to increased support from the mid-to-upper
level jet. A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be in place across
most places (besides a few west/northwest portions of the area) with
the greatest severe threat mainly falling between 5PM and 3AM Monday
night. The main severe hazard with the stronger storms will be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60MPH. Hail up to the size of
quarters may still be possible, though the hail threat will not be
as significant.

Taking a step back to observe the synoptical environment, we observe
a Northern Rockies center trough off to our northwest with a
Southeast U.S. ridge resting southeast of the area. These two
features will keep the mid-to-upper level jet nearby (just northwest
of the local area) for now. This wave pattern will soon look to
resemble a wetter signal with several shortwave disturbances, embedded
within the jet, possible to pop out of the flow. These off-and-on
disturbances could stir up a few sporadic thunderstorm activity. The
forecast for much of the rest of the week now features at least
minor PoPs across some portion of the forecast area every afternoon
to night. Besides the occasional thunderstorm chances, the
temperature forecast continues to keep highs in the upper 80s and
90s each day. Later on in the week (Friday and Saturday) a few
southern Nebraska and Kansas locations may see highs near the tipple
digits once more.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast to retain across the next at least
24 hours with no precipitation expected. The main aviation
concern will be from gusty overnight winds and the presence of
LLWS between 3-14z. The LLWS generally starting from the south around
2-4z will gradually increase through around 7z (up to 45-50kts
up to 2,000ft).


Winds this afternoon will retain a southerly direction with
speeds keeping below 15kts and mainly gusting less than 20kts.
Winds speeds between mainly 3-10z will gradually speed up. The
gustiest winds of the night will generally occur between 6-15z
with speeds peaking near 20-25kts and gusts peaking as high as
30-35kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ063-075-085.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for NEZ049-064-076-077-086-
     087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-018.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion