Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

565
FXUS63 KOAX 192320
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
  Highs today reach the low 70s and 80s.

- Temperatures warm to the 80s for much of the area Friday and
  Saturday, and a few records could be broken.

- Areas of very high to potentially extreme fire danger are
  forecast for portions of the area Friday and Saturday, driven
  mainly by dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features the persistent
mid/upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS, with
heights continuing to build across the Great Plains and shuffle
away the exiting trough to the east. Drilling down to the
surface, another surface trough/effective warm front has pushed
east of the area into west- central Iowa, allowing temperatures
to soar well into the mid-to- upper 70s already this afternoon.
Though we have warmed quite a bit today, dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s have continued to stick around, keeping humidity values
from falling too far below 25-35% while very light winds keep
the overall fire danger in the high/very high range. Winds will
waver southerly overnight while staying calm, and temperatures
bottom out in the 40s.

Friday and Saturday:

Friday and Saturday will be the two days to watch, where drying
conditions and record-breaking (or at least nearly so) temperatures
headline the message of the forecast. The mid/upper pattern along
with the low-level thermal ridge to the west will spread eastward,
allowing a good westerly component of the wind directions to
accentuate the warming at the surface. Highs area-wide are expected
to reach into the 80s Friday, with Omaha and Lincoln currently
forecast to break their records (78 and 80 respectively), while KOFK
stays just under theirs. Deep mixing will continue during the late
mornings and afternoons, helping to bring dry air from aloft down to
the surface and lower dewpoints. As a result, very high fire danger
is forecast Friday as we continue forward with extremely dry fuels,
though the overall danger is limited by gentle winds.

By Saturday, the driest conditions are forecast where humidity
values drop down into the 14-24% range thanks to the warmest
temperatures of the year so far. Highs are set to push into the
upper 80s and even low 90s and potentially break records for the
second day in a row. There are only a handful of days where
Omaha, Lincoln, or Norfolk have reached the 90 degree mark in
March, let alone this early. Winds will be on the increase as
well, as they mix into somewhat breezy winds aloft and gust to
20-30 mph at the surface. Very high to extreme fire danger is
forecast for the area, with all of eastern Nebraska joining the
central and western portions of the state in a Fire Weather
Watch from 11 AM to 3 AM Sunday. As of now, the winds may be a
bit too light to see the whole watch be turned into a warning,
but the forecast come into focus more as we approach the period.

Sunday and Beyond...

A shortwave and associated cold front will ripple through the region
Saturday night and Sunday. Relatively cooler temperatures will surge
south, as gusty north winds overspread the Central Plains. Highs are
forecast to top out in the low 60s Sunday with minimum relative
humidities around 25 to 40 percent. While this combination may help
improve fire weather concerns to some extent, northerly winds are
expected to reach speeds of 25 to 35+ mph Sunday morning, keeping
parts of eastern Nebraska in the Very High category.

Precipitation chances continue to remain low through early next
week. Although a glancing blow from a weak shortwave rippling
through the northwesterly flow isn`t totally out of the realm of
possibility. While temperatures may take a brief dip behind Sunday`s
cold front, we should remain above normal through the remainder of
the forecast period. In fact, some solutions are beginning to point
at the potential for another round of increased fire danger by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Expect light
and variable winds overnight, but predominantly from the south
at OMA/LNK and west at OFK...switching out of the north around
sunrise on Friday. Will be near LLWS criteria at OMA/LNK
between 09 and 13Z as winds 1000 feet AGL increase to 30+ kts
out of the west.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG/Petersen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

228
FXUS63 KGID 192336
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonable record-breaking warmth continues through
  Saturday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Saturday and Saturday
  night.

- Dry conditions are favored to continue through the end of
  March. Above normal temperatures also likely favored through
  the end of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures prevailed
across the region this afternoon. Temperatures so far have been
running 3-5 degrees above yesterdays hourly readings, with
record high temperatures for both Hastings and Grand Island this
afternoon well within reach.

With high pressure persisting aloft, expect warm and dry
conditions to continue through Saturday, with similar
temperatures across the region tomorrow (maybe 1-2 degrees
cooler based on 850MB temps), followed by temperatures surging
on Saturday ahead an approaching cold front. In fact, high
temperatures Saturday will likely set new all time record high
temperatures - by several degrees - for the entire month of
March!

As the front approaches on Saturday, expect an uptick in winds
as well, which combined with the hot and dry airmass will result
in critical fire weather conditions. Currently there is a fire
weather watch for Saturday - but fully expect this to eventually
be upgraded to a Red Flag warning sometime either later tonight
or on Friday.

As the front crosses the area on Sunday, expect a fairly notable
drop in temperatures for Sunday and Monday, with high
temperatures forecast to only top out in the 60s and 70s, or
still about 10 degrees above seasonal norms. In fact, expect the
upper level ridge to restrengthen across the local area again
behind this front, with a potential return to additional record
high temperatures by next Wednesday.

In short, unseasonable warm and dry conditions are favored to
finish out the month of March across the local area, with
little signal in model ensembles for any significant
precipitation chance or chance of a significant cool-down
across the local area for at least the next 10-14 days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
weaken this evening out of generally the southwest. Winds will
become northwest to north by 12z and will become gusty around
16z. Winds will weaken some by 21z with gusts under 15 kts.
Brief wind shear is possible around 10z to 11z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Potential Record Warm Maximum Temperatures:

Today, Thursday March 19   Forecast High Record Max/Year
Hastings                        86               84 (1921)
Grand Island                    85               86 (1921)

Friday March 20            Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        87               82 (1939)
Grand Island                    86               84 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        94               87 (1910)
Grand Island                    93               83 (1988)

Wednesday March 25         Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        84               85 (1956)
Grand Island                    85               88 (1910)

***Note: The all-time March max temperature is 90 degrees
at both Grand Island and Hastings***

Potential Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

Friday March 20            Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        47               46 (2011)
Grand Island                    46               50 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        48               47 (2012)
Grand Island                    47               54 (1911)

Temperature records for Hastings date back to 1907 and they
date back to 1895 for Grand Island.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Schuldt
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion