Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

406
FXUS63 KOAX 161728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a cooler Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  rounding out the weekend.

- 20-50% chance of rain Monday, alongside breezy winds out of
  the southeast gusting to 20-35 mph.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today...

A surface high shifted from the Dakotas into western Minnesota and
Iowa overnight, bringing light winds and temperatures in the 30s and
40s by 2 AM. High pressure will continue to slide east today, as a
low pressure system pushes into the Rockies, with dry conditions
prevailing over the forecast area. Highs will top out in the mid to
upper 50s this afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...

The Rocky Mountain low will gradually weaken as it continues to push
east Monday. Strong warm air advection ahead of this system will
lead to the development of showers by Monday afternoon. While
precipitation will likely struggle through a dry layer to reach the
surface initially, there remains a 20-50% chance that saturation
will prevail by Monday afternoon and evening, with QPF totals
generally under 0.10" expected. Model solutions remain in agreement
that the low will track far enough to the north to preclude any snow
chances. Winds still look to be breezy ahead of the approaching low,
with southerly gusts up to 20-35 mph possible Monday.

Winds will weaken by early Tuesday morning, as they turn to the
north behind the passing cold front. A few sprinkles could persist
into the early morning hours on the back side of the low, however a
dry forecast is expected to prevail for the vast majority of the
region Tuesday. Temperatures will range from around 50 degrees over
northeast Nebraska to 60 degrees over southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa both Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will hover
just above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s each night.

Wednesday and Beyond...

A more active pattern looks to impact the region Wednesday through
the upcoming weekend as a trough moves across the inter-mountain
west and into the Great Plains. Rain looks probable Thursday through
Friday. There is a small chance for cold air to wrap in behind the
system by the weekend, bringing the potential for wintry
precipitation, but chances appear to be low at this time.
Temperatures will remain in the 50s through Thursday, with the upper
40s possible on Friday. Lows will stay a couple of degrees above
freezing for most locations, with colder nights possible by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with nearly
unidirectional winds over the next 24 hours out of the
southeast. Speeds this afternoon will generally increase to
around 10 kts or just below, holding steady overnight before
increasing after 13z with gusts to 20-25 kts arriving to all
three TAF sites by 14/15z. Increasing low-level cloud cover will
arrive with the gusts, with quite a bit of spread in timing of
MVFR conditions just beyond the current TAF period ending at
18z. At the moment, the forecast is more optimistic ceiling-
wise, with potential that MVFR conditions could move in by 16/17
tomorrow morning at KOFK/KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

956
FXUS63 KGID 161725
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1125 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 60s and mostly sunny
  skies.

- Rain chances (15-25%) return to the area Monday evening/night
  for areas north of Interstate 80.

- Seasonable temperatures (40s/50s) continue next week, with
  additional chances for rain Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 241 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Temperatures this morning are in the 30s and 40s under partly cloudy
skies. This cloud coverage will likely help to prevent the
development of fog this morning. If greater clearing does
happen, some patchy fog development is possible (west of Highway
281). Another pleasant and sunny day is expected for the area.
Highs today will climb into the upper 50s (northeast) to mid 60s
(southwest). Southerly winds may be breezy at times west of
Highway 183, gusting 20-25mph. Lows tonight will be in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Focus turns to a passing shortwave trough moving through the area on
Monday. Precipitation with the initial wave looks to miss the
area to the north and east, though areas east of Highway 281 and
north of Highway 92 could see some light rain before it quickly
exits the area. PoPs have increased Monday evening/night, as
models show support for rain wrapping around the backside of the
low as it exits the area. This would bring a chance for rain to
areas north of I-80. PoPs with this round will likely need to
be increase/broadened in coverage if this model trend continues.
Beyond Monday`s PoPs, the forecast remains largely on track
with seasonable temperatures through the end of the forecast
period and more widespread rain chances arriving Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025


Tonight through Monday...

A cold front passing through to the south early today has kept highs
around 10-15 degrees cooler this afternoon (upper 60s to mid 70s)
compared to yesterds`s record temperatures. This feature`s passage
was evident by the northward flip in winds directions this morning.
Higher surface pressure building across the north plains tonight and
sunday will help to maintain light and variable winds turning
eastward overnight followed by some steady 10-15MPH southeasterlies
for Sunday.

Some fog development Sunday morning can`t be ruled out given the
gentle easterly upsloping flow and the near saturated
temp/dewpoints (both lows and dewpoints as low as the 30s to low
40s). A few clouds overhead could limit the diurnal cooling to a
degree, in what could be the difference between widespread dense fog
and areas of patchy fog. The overall best potential should fall west
of HWY-281 and north of the state line. Around 40% of the REFS
ensemble members as well as close to 50% of the HREF ensemble
members suggest the potential for some coverage of fog. Beyond the
morning fog potential, highs for Sunday will continue to slide down
a few degrees into the 60s.

The next major pattern change will arrive Monday as a simi-cutoff
shortwave trough gets shoved into the Central Plains. Recently there
has been some question around the amount of precipitation that this
system will churn out with the global models (GFS/ECMWF) now
appearing to be point towards mostly dry conditions for the area. The
general consensus shows a weak surface low forming off the western
Rockies and moving east across primarily northern Kansas through the
day. Beyond temporarily nudging wind directions towards the north
as it passes by to the south, a few scattered and light showers
could materialize across a few far north and northeastern areas
during the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

In terms of precipitation chances, the total shower coverage has
decreased with both the GFS and ECMWF now analyzing most of the
precipitation towards northern Nebraska and South Dakota. Our latest
PoPs reflect this northward shift in confidence as now all places
have PoPs below 15% beyond a limited far northern and northeastern
locations (only up to 20%). Amount wise, only a handful of places
may even see more than a trace with likely far more areas missed
than hit. Temperates in the mid 50s to mid 60s during the day would
keep any falling precipitation in the forum of liquid.


Tuesday and Beyond...

Temperatures next week will eventually stabilize Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs resting in the 50s to low 60s. Persistent cloud
coverage starting Tuesday/Wednesday may stick around for a majority
of the time through Friday. The mostly cloudy skies paired with a
steady northerly wind component Thursday and Friday should allow
temperatures to drop a few more degrees into the the mid 40s to mid
50s to finish out the week. Friday`s temperates could become the
coolest of the week (mid 40s to low 50s).

Another Western U.S. trough is favored to take a more southern route
across the Central U.S. near the end of the week (around Thursday).
This second system could bring parts of the area a better shot at
precipitation compared to Monday`s event. Cluster analysis by the 0z
LREF shows two possible outcomes near the end of next week reliant
on the mid-to-upper level patten. The leading cluster (most likely
scenario) explaining 29% of the ensemble member variance with greater
contribution of the european ensemble (ENS), showed a flatter and
less amplified troughing patten that keep precipitation amounts on
the more reserved end (0.1-0.25") with cooler temperatures heading
into Friday. Meanwhile, the second leading cluster (alternate
scenario) explaining only 20% of the variance and more contribution
from the american ensemble (GEFS), showed a more amplified troughing
pattern with a slightly wetter signal (0.25-0.75") and with warmer
temperatures heading into Friday. The conclusion that can be taken
away from this cluster analysis is that a more amplified trough next
week could increase precipitation chance/amounts as well as
influence slightly warmer temperatures near the end of the week.

Forecast wise, the NBM keeps precipitation chances between 25-45%
with the highest PoPs concentrated towards the southeast (areas
closer to the system center). Timing wise, the highest confidence
currently resides Thursday night, though the earliest inclusion of
precipitation chances begin Wednesday evening and end by Friday
afternoon. The possibility of a period of mixed precipitation or
brief snow can`t be 100% ruled out quite yet (some areas of sub-
freezing temperatures late Thursday night) though a vast majority of
the precipitation should fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to maintain through 10z Monday.
Increasing cloud coverage early Monday morning will likely
contribute to dropping ceilings between 10-14z. Cloud bases
after 14z will push down into low end MVFR conditions (60%
chance). In addition, 30-40kts of southerly LLWS look probable
between 6-15z Monday. Winds at the surface will retain a
southeasterly orientation across the next 24 hours with winds
between 10-15kts. A few gusts up to 25kts will be possible
during the day Monday (after 12z).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion