Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

662
FXUS63 KOAX 022309
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
609 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s today through
  Monday.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (30-60%) Sunday
  night through Wednesday. Highest chance across southeast
  Nebraska/far southwest Iowa Monday night - early Tuesday.

- Some frost potential for Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
  especially across northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Today through Sunday...

Clear skies and light winds allowed cold air to plunge into the
region overnight.  Morning temperatures plummeted into the upper
20s across parts of northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, with low to
mid 30s closer to the Kansas and Missouri borders.

Westerly winds will continue to advect warmer air down from the High
Plains this afternoon, as a surface high slips south into Kansas. By
noon temperatures had rebounded into the upper 50s and low 60s.

Tonight, a weak, dry cold front will dip south through the region.
While a handful of CAMs show spotty showers with the frontal passage
overnight, forecast soundings indicate a notable amount of low level
dry air that will likely eat any rain before it reaches the surface.
If anything does somehow make it all the way to the ground, expect
little more than trace amounts.

Temperatures will be more mild tonight, despite the northerly wind
shift. Over night lows are only expected to fall into the mid and
upper 40s, giving our plants a nice break from freezing
temperatures. An upper ridge to our west will begin to break down,
as a low pressure system moves into the west coast, and a northern
trough begins to shift south out of Canada. Patchy cloud cover with
the passing front could inhibit our warm-up potential slightly
Sunday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low 70s over
northeast Nebraska, and into the mid 70s near the NE/KS border, as
warm air advection prevails.

Monday and Beyond...

Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Monday, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s and low 80s. Off-and-on rain chances
(30-60%) will return to the forecast Monday through Thursday, as the
cut off low near California attempts to phase with the longwave
trough dropping into the nation`s midsection. A boundary lying just
to our south, across Kansas and Missouri, will be the focus point
for precipitation. While widespread wetting rainfall looks to remain
just south of our forecast area, we will still have a few showers
dot the CWA. The greatest chance for precip within our borders
currently looks to be Monday night into Tuesday across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Temperatures will likely take a bit of a dip early to mid week,
depending on the track of the main low to our north. Highs are
currently expected to drop back into the 50s and 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday, with at least some potential for a frosty morning or two
across northeast Nebraska Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will likely rebound Thursday afternoon and beyond as
the trough shifts east and a ridge approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Westerly
winds will back around towards the south this evening ahead of a
passing weather system. The passage of this system will result
in LLWS across the region overnight. A cold front moves
southeast across the region early Sunday morning bringing
northerly winds to the area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

504
FXUS63 KGID 030008
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
708 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a pleasant start to the weekend, dry conditions will
  continue on into the day on Sunday...with a small bump up in
  highs, most spots looking to reach into the 70s.

- A more active pattern brings precipitation chances for the
  first half of the new work week...mainly focused on late day
  Monday-Monday night, then again Wednesday. The latter portion
  of the work week looks to dry back out.

- A frontal boundary sinking south through the area ushers in
  highs in the 50s for Tue-Wed, following the 70s-low 80s on
  Mon. Highs back in the 70s are expected by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently through Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the Central Plains
this afternoon...with the entire day having sunny skies.
Looking in the upper levels, solidly northwesterly flow remains
in place across the region...set up between deep troughing
working its way toward the East Coast and high pressure/ridging
extending northward from the Desert SW. At the surface, high
pressure has been gradually sinking south with time today. This
brought light/variable winds to start the day...which have
turned more southwesterly with time. Speeds across southern
areas remain light as they sit closer to that sfc high...the
stronger speeds are across northern areas, with gusts at times
around 20-25 MPH. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with
obs at 3PM sitting in the mid 60s to near 70.

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast through
this short term period through the end of the weekend...which
remains largely dry. Models are in good agreement showing
continued generally northwesterly flow across the
region...though becoming less amplified with time as another
system is working its way south into central Canada/near the US
border. The only mention of precip during this time frame is
Sunday evening-night...with models showing the potential for a
weak shortwave sparking off activity near the western NE/SD
border late in the day. Question is its evolution and whether it
is maintained long enough to impact our forecast area...some
models say it wanes before then. Not a ton of confidence in
those chances at this point.

After seeing plenty of sun today, there is good agreement with
increased mid-upper level cloud cover as we get into
Sunday...not totally overcast, but looking to be generally
partly cloudy, mostly cloudy at times in spots. As far as winds
go, late tonight-Sun AM, a weak upper level disturbance crossing
to our NE will push a surface frontal boundary south through
the region...ushering in a switch to more northerly winds. Not
expecting a notable increase in speeds...it`s not a strong
frontal boundary...and through the day on Sunday, winds lighten
a bit, turning more easterly with time. Expecting a slight bump
up in temps, with more of the area in the low-mid 70s (vs the
upper 60s-low 70s by the end of today).

New work week...

The next best chances for precipitation look to arrive late in
the day Monday into the evening-overnight hours. Though the
forecast has chances early-mid afternoon...there are at least a
handful of models showing that for most, that 18-21Z period is
likely dry. These precipitation chances are being driven by a
southward push of upper level energy out of central Canada and
the Nrn Plains. Activity late in the day is expected to develop
in proximity to the accompanying surface cold front...with some
lingering uncertainties/differences between models with just
exactly where the front ends up. Some models show by 00Z the
boundary is near/south of the NE-KS state line...a few are a
touch slower/further north. Though winds turn back to the south
early in the day Monday...not expecting a notable push of better
moisture north before that front arrives...current forecast
afternoon dewpoints are only in the 30s to mid 40s (better
chance for 50s+ dewpoints currently over eastern KS and far SE
Neb.). Expecting another bump up in highs for Monday, reaching
into the mid 70s-low 80s, but models have better instability
focusing just off to our SE...thus SPC has kept the Day 3
Marginal Risk area over that same area. We`ll see how things
trend in upcoming model runs.

Between the upper level system near the US/Can border and
another shifting east from the West Coast, eventually becoming
more phased in with that central CONUS troughing...additional
disturbances bring additional precipitation chances through mid-
week. Currently, the best chances are focused mainly across the
southern half of the forecast area...but have plenty of details
to iron out in the coming days. This Tuesday-Wednesday period is
also the coolest of this 7-day period...with highs both days
mainly in the 50s.

The latter portion of the new week dries back out...with current
forecast highs back in the 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The wind has begun to die down and will generally remain around
10 kts out of the southwest most of the night. We expect strong
low level wind shear late tonight, mainly after midnight with
winds at 1-2k ft agl around 47 kts while surface winds are
around 10 kts. A weak frontal passage around 5-7 AM will turn
the surface winds to a more northwesterly and even northerly
direction and bring an end to the strong low level wind shear.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF valid
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion