Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

898
FXUS63 KOAX 020446
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A decaying MCS will bring shower/storm chances overnight into
  early Tuesday mainly across western portions of our area.

- A summer-like pattern continues keeping warm and muggy weather
  in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A large complex of storms has developed over Central Nebraska
this evening, with a few embedded segments of strong to severe
storms. Primary hazards have been strong winds, hail. This stems
from a shortwave riding up the western flank of a ridge that is
building up over the Missouri River Valley. Out to the west, we
have a broad upper-level trough over the Intermountain West
amplifying southwesterly flow over Wyoming, Colorado, and the
Dakotas.

The shortwave driving the convective complex over central
Nebraska will push it east into our area overnight into early
Tuesday, weakening and dissipating as it continues east. As it
clears out, CAMs show it leaving a remnant MCV in place centered
around Boone County, NE. This MCV will trigger new storm
development Tuesday afternoon as daytime heating and clearing
cloud cover destabilizes the environment. There are some
differences in how much we destabilize tomorrow with remnant
cloud cover struggling to clear through the afternoon. Portions
of our area that clear earlier may see up to 1500J/kg of SBCAPE,
while other areas see only 500J/kg or less. If storms can
trigger in areas with greater destabilization, we could see a
a stronger storm or two develop, but shear is really weak. Any
stronger storms shouldn`t last too long, but could produce
strong winds and/or small hail as it collapses on itself. These
storms will dissipate around sunset as they will be diurnally
driven.

Late Tuesday we see a shortwave from the Desert Southwest ridge
up into the southwesterly flow to our west, merging into the
upper-level trough over Montana. This amplifies the Jet Streak
over eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas, keeping evening-
overnight convection confined more west Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Even so we could still see a complex ride off this
boundary eastward, moving into our area early Wednesday as it
weakens and dissipates.

Going into midweek we see that trough over eastern Montana push
up into Alberta/Saskatchewan starting to nudge the ridge over
the Central Plains further east. This trend will shift the
moisture plume east, bringing afternoon/evening storm
development east into mainly western portions of our area
on Wednesday. With this we`ll see 1500-2000J/kg of SBCAPE and a
marginal amount of SFC-500mb Bulk Shear of around 35kt, just
enough for a few strong to severe storms to be possible. More
likely, we see storms similar to what they are seeing to our
west today, several disorganized convective complexes develop
with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or hail. These
storms then migrate eastward into western Iowa overnight.

Thursday and Friday we see the ridge get shoved farther and
farther east, and a stream of southerly flow continuing to
stream warm, moist air out of the Gulf up into our area.
Thursday we see the ribbon of storms light back up across our
area during the afternoon and evening, again with only a
marginal potential for severe weather with anything that
develops. Friday, we see a shortwave perhaps increase the amount
of shear with a weak cold front moving through. This is possibly
our best chance for severe storms Friday evening into the
overnight hours.

Over the weekend we see a strong amplifying ridge over the
Northern Plains up into central Canada, situated north of a
trough over Oklahoma and Texas continuing to stream warm, moist
air into our region. Daily storm chances continue, giving us
much needed seasonal rainfall, though temperatures will be
warming into the mid-to-upper 80s each day with heat indices up
around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. The
primary concern will be a decaying thunderstorm complex pushing
in from the west overnight. The main question will be how far
the complex makes it before decaying, with the best chances of a
few hours of rainshowers and/or thunder being at KOFK and KLNK
before it fully decays by 02/14Z. Patchy, brief MVFR conditions
and wind gusts (up to 30 kts) will be possible if these
thunderstorms hold together. Otherwise, winds will remain calm
and out of the south- southeast, increasing to 12-14 kts during
the afternoon.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible (30% chance) again between 02/17-23Z. This chance has
been left out of the current forecast package due to the low
confidence in timing and coverage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

412
FXUS63 KGID 020727
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
227 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue pushing east
  through the area early this morning, a few strong to
  marginally severe storms are not out of the question.

- Through the daytime hours today, lingering precip chances look
  to focus more across east-northeastern portions of the
  area...with much of the area potentially dry from roughly late
  morning on through the afternoon. Late day storms expected to
  develop along the High Plains will have the potential to push
  east into the area tonight...a few strong-severe storms will
  again be possible.

- Periodic upper level disturbances keep the train of days with
  storm chances intact mid-late week...but not looking at a non-
  stop rainout. Main chances will favor the late day/evening and
  overnight hours. Forecast highs through the end of the week
  remain in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to work their way east across
the Central Plains early this morning...this activity through
central NE/KS is driven primarily by a couple of MCVs, one
moving through the northern portions of our forecast area, the
other moving across southern KS. Radar over the last hour or so
has also shown a ramp up in an arc of storms from north
central/western KS into eastern CO...lined up across the
convergence zone on the nose of an increased low-level jet.
Through the rest of tonight...this activity will continue
pushing east...and while a few strong-severe storms are not out
of the question, that would be the exception. Looking at a
broader picture across the CONUS, the disturbance that helped
spark the initial activity out over the High Plains is embedded
in west-southwesterly flow...set up between an area of low
pressure spinning near the Montana/Canada border (and southward
extending troughing) and ridging extending NNE from TX into
Ontario. Upper air and satellite data show this pattern
continuing to be slow to move/ blocked up by stubborn troughing
along the East Coast. At the surface, winds become increasingly
ESErly through the midday-afternoon hours as we sat east of the
main area of low presure/frontal boundary...but as this
activity as made its way through, various storm-driven
boundaries have made for a messy pattern and winds from several
directions depending on where you`re located.

Today/Tonight...

At least isolated to scattered showers and storms may be pretty
slow to clear the forecast area, and a few models suggest it
never truly does, especially for the eastern half where a subtle
mid-upper level trough axis may be lingering around. High
precip chances during the daytime hours are in the 12-18Z time
frame...but have fairly broad 20-30 percent chances through the
afternoon hours, though most locations will likely be dry. Winds
are expected to eventually turn back to the southeast...and
can`t rule out some gusts near 20-25 MPH through the afternoon
hours. No notable changes were made to forecast highs this
afternoon, with mainly upper 70s-low 80s expected.

Late this afternoon, models showing yet another upper level
shortwave disturbance sliding out of the Rockies and onto the
High Plains...sparking another round of thunderstorms along
sfc troughing. This activity is expected to push east through
the evening-overnight hours, aided by the low-level jet ramping
up to around 35-40kts. Main question will again be how much of
this activity can be maintained further east, and the timing.
Best chances for our forecast area looks to be late evening on
into the overnight hours...and can`t rule out a few on the
strong-marginally severe side, though activity the further east
it goes models show it moving into weaker shear. Areas from
Valley County NE to Rooks County KS and west are included in the
SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area...damaging winds and large hail
would be the primary threats.

Mid-Late Week...

Models finally start showing a little more eastward progress
with the upper level pattern...but it remains an active
pattern for the Central Plains. There`s not a lot of change in
the pattern on Wednesday, still mainly southwesterly with that
main upper low over central Canada, with ridging expanding
across more of the Midwest...then Thu-Fri that ridging gets
broken down and flow is more zonal across the area. Embedded
shortwave disturbances continue making their way
through...driving the continuation of several days with
precipitation chances, but not looking at a non-stop rainout,
it`s just difficult to pin down specific timing/location details
the further out in time you go. The better chances of storms
look to be during that typical late day-evening-overnight time
frame. Potential for strong-severe storms will also linger, but
again hard to have a ton of confidence in details further
out...Wednesday does remain part of the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk
area across central and western portions of the forecast area.

As far as temperatures go, not looking at any notable swings
either way...and things could be greatly impacted by any
activity that happens to linger further into the daytime hours.
At this point forecast highs Wed-Sat remain in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms developed just southwest of
the local area early this morning and weakened as they tracked
east northeast through the afternoon hours. As skies clear
behind the remaining cloud cover, expect temperatures to rebound
into the mid 80s to near 90 by late afternoon...with eyes then
turning west where the next line of showers and thunderstorms is
currently starting to intensify over the central Rockies.

Models today have been fairly consistent developing a fairly
large complex of storms over the high plains later this
afternoon...which should track east towards the local area
during the evening hours. This fairly widespread area of
storms...some of which could be severe given the available
instability and nearly 40 KTS of 0-6 KM shear...should reach our
western areas by around 8 PM...and likely the Tri-cities closer
to 10PM. Given the potential for some organized storms embedded
in this cluster, hail to around half dollar size will be
possible initially during the evening hours, with the main
threat transitioning to strong thunderstorm wind gusts later in
the event. Currently, we remain in a slight risk for severe
weather for western areas and a more marginal risk from roughly
the Tri-cities and to the east/northeast, which seems
reasonable considering the timing and expected evolution of
this event.

Behind the initial surge of thunderstorms late tonight, several
models indicate redevelopment on its backside...likely fed by
a southeasterly LLJ...which could keep things active in spots
until around daybreak Tuesday. Skies will eventually clear by
midday, however, with another seasonably warm afternoon in store
for the local area. In fact, with a weak upper level flow
pattern and the lack of strong or persistent ridging, most days
over the next 7-10 days should have near to slightly above
normal temperatures each afternoon with periodic chances for
thunderstorms largely driven by weak disturbances in westerly
flow and plenty of available instability forecast across the
region. Given the uncertainty in timing and lack of really
strong shear on any particular day, trying to time severe
chances beyond the next 24 hours is difficult, although
additional severe storm chances will be likely over the course
of the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to work their
way through the area to start of this TAF period. There is some
uncertainty in the coverage as the complex as a whole shifts
east...so kept the PROB30 group going for a thunder mention,
left VCSH as prevailing. Winds look to remain variable as this
activity moves through. Have a precip mention continuing
through mid-late morning...again there is uncertainty in
coverage and timing, some models linger things even longer,
others do not. Kept the late morning hours on through the end of
the period dry...not enough confidence to keep a precip mention
going. Some models try redeveloping at least spotty activity
through the afternoon hours...so we`ll see how things trend in
upcoming runs. Winds are expected to eventually return to the
southeast during the day...low confidence in the timing, but
some gusts near 20 MPH look possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion