Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

912
FXUS63 KOAX 110224
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
924 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms likely overnight (60-80% chance),
  moving through around 3 to 7 AM. Threats include very large
  hail, damaging winds, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall.

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday (40-60% chance) with
  another chance for severe storms Saturday afternoon and
  evening.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

We have two boundaries across our area this evening. The main
one is just clipping far southeast Nebraska up through Page
County, IA bringing storms into Richardson County. The second is
more of a truer cold front with a wind shift to northwesterly
and much drier air to the north of it. This front stretches from
Beatrice northeast to around Red Oak, IA. We had a few storms
pop up along that second boundary earlier, but with diurnal
heating shutting off, we`ve even lost the clouds that were along
that boundary earlier.

Attention turns to storms overnight. Right now the upper-level
pattern shows broad troughing over the Northern High Plains.
Guidance has a decently strong shortwave trough pushing into
Nebraska early Thursday, providing upper-level dynamic support
for amplification of the low-level jet, and forcing for storm
development starting around 1-2AM over Central Nebraska. As the
LLJ strengthens overnight, we`ll see the stronger surface
frontal boundary start to advance northward into southeast
Nebraska. Isentropic upglide to the north of the surface front
will lead to destabilization above the boundary layer. This
instability combined with 40-55kts of 1-3km Bulk Shear along the
nose of the LLJ will lead to the organization of a strong MCS
that will track across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. While
CAMs continue to waffle on the exact path of this convective
complex, it generally looks to impact somewhere around I-80,
either aiming directly towards Lincoln or Omaha continuing east
into Iowa.

This complex will likely start as a cluster of strong individual
cells over Central Nebraska, starting to merge together as they
enter Butler, Seward, and Saline counties. These initial storm
clusters will have a high risk of large hail, up to 2.5 inches.
As they continue east, we`ll see cold-pool development as the
storm clusters start to organize themselves in the high-shear
environment. It will start with a couple strong downbursts,
which then will lead to the transition into more of more of a
wind-driven MCS with gust potential up likely up to 70-80 mph.
Couldn`t rule out gusts up to 100 mph. The next uncertainty lies
in where exactly this transition occurs and just how strong the
winds will get. I expect the transition will likely occur
somewhere around Lancaster+Saunders counties east into Omaha,
with a wind-driven hail threat through the transition. Areas
east of the transition will see more of just a damaging wind
threat.

Severe storms should clear the area into central Iowa by around
7AM, with the precip shield keeping light stratiform showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder into mid-morning. Once
showers clear, attention turns to the forecast for the rest of
Thursday. The good news is that it is going to be much cooler.
Strong northwesterly flow on the back-side of the upper-level
trough will mix down, leading to gusty northwesterly winds
developing late morning and lingering through the afternoon.
Expect frequent gusts 30 to 40 mph. These winds will be
advecting in cooler, drier air which will keep temperatures very
pleasant. Highs on Thursday will only get into the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Going into Friday we see zonal flow setting up across the CONUS
at 250mb, with a mid-level ridge shifting across the region at
500mb. On Friday we see the return of southerly flow on the
back-side of this ridge coinciding with a weak Low developing
and moving into central South Dakota. With the return of
southerly flow we`ll see temperatures warming back into the mid
80s to low 90s Friday afternoon, though humidity remains low
with dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We`ll see moisture
arrive with the nocturnal amplification of the LLJ into eastern
Nebraska Friday night into early Saturday with increasing
clouds, and potential for nocturnal storms overnight into early
Saturday.

Models have been trending farther south with nocturnal storm
development and the lingering stationary front into the day on
Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for strong-to-severe
storm development possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
Wherever this sets up, expect a low pressure system to develop
somewhere around southwestern Kansas and ride up along this
stationary boundary, amplifying low-level shear in an
environment with ample moisture and instability along and south
of the front. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting
this potential since Day 5, which shows fairly good confidence
in this potential, so highlight Saturday afternoon-evening as a
period we should watch for more severe storms.

Beyond Saturday, cooler weather settles in for Sunday into early
next week as we see the return of northwesterly flow over the
northern and central Plains. We could still see a few chances
for showers and storms as shortwaves ride down the back-side of
the broad upper-level trough, but moisture will be more limited
with these showers likely not leading to any significant,
meaningful rainfall.

Temperatures trend back up toward Wednesday next week as ridging
out west starts to expand eastward, leading to the return of
southerly flow and moisture advection back into our region. I
wouldn`t expect any additional chances for severe weather beyond
Saturday until at least Wednesday or later in the week next
week.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions this evening with winds shifting to the northwest
behind a frontal boundary draped from KLNK to KAIO. This
boundary is going to stall south then surge back north
overnight, leading to likely severe storms along the I-80
corridor around 08-12Z. Main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds, with a 70% chance someone gets high with 65 mph
winds and large hail. Guidance has been waffling on the exact
track of these storms, so haven`t indicated the strong wind
potential just yet in the TAFs, but have timing of storms
included, hitting KLNK around 08-10Z, and KOMA and 09-11Z.
Guidance has been trending earlier with time of arrival, though,
so will update timing if needed. MVFR cigs will likely develop
along or just behind the storms near KOMA, holding through much
of the morning until clouds break up around 17Z. Winds will be
ramping up out of the northwest Thursday morning around 15-17Z,
gusting 30-35 kt into the afternoon at all the terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

433
FXUS63 KGID 102347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions this afternoon continue into the evening
  hours...with increasing thunderstorm potential mainly after
  1AM tonight. Main chances favor portions of south central NE,
  especially along/north of I-80. Storms that develop will have
  the potential to be severe...at this point thinking large
  hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats.

- Some weak activity could linger into the early morning hours
  Thursday, otherwise the forecast for Thu-Fri remains dry.
  Gusty winds are expected both days...out of the NW on Thu, out
  of the S on Fri. Cooler highs in the mid-70s to low-80s are
  forecast Thu, back in the mid-upper 80s for Fri.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances return for the weekend into
  early next week...next decent chance for strong-severe storms
  may be on Saturday across southeastern areas. Cooler highs in
  the low-mid 70s return for Sun, climbing back into the 80s-90s
  by Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Currently...

After a bout of severe weather resulting in a notable swath of
straight-line wind gusts into central portions of the forecast
area Tuesday evening...today has brought a much more quiet
day. Upper air and satellite data show west-southwesterly flow
in place across the area...set up on the southern side of
troughing extending back to the north into central Canada. At
the surface, the upper level troughing sliding east is pushing a
surface cool front south across the Central Plains...with
latest obs showing it having moved through all but the far SE
corner of the forecast area. Not really a significant push of
cooler air with this front...it`s more notable features are the
switch to at times gusty NW winds and a drop in dewpoints. We
were sitting under widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 70s at
this time Tuesday...dewpoints currently behind the front are in
the 40s-50s. Satellite showing no shortage of sun across the
area...the exception being some CU developing across SErn
portions of the area. For the rest of this afternoon...models
have been consistent showing thunderstorms developing remaining
SE of the forecast area, across eastern KS into MO/IA...and
that`s what satellite/radar trends have shown over the last
hour.

This evening and tonight...

Overall, hasn`t been any significant changes in the overall
thinking...with the evening hours expected to remain dry. Models
continue to show increasing potential for thunderstorm
development closer to/mainly after midnight tonight and
lingering into the early morning hours. Another wave of mid-
upper level shortwave energy looks to move out onto the Plains
tonight...with an increasing southerly low-level jet developing.
Models showing this LLJ ramping up to around 45-50kts...with
the best convergence/lift along its nose pushing north into the
forecast area. Hi-res models have varied slightly on the exact
timing...with most favoring anytime after 06- 07Z. Also some
uncertainty with the exact location/coverage...most models have
kept the better potential mainly along/north of I-80 and
along/east of HWY 281...but there have been a few just a touch
further south (closer to HWY 6) and west (at least isolated back
into our western fringes). Expectation that any storms will
have the potential to be severe, with models showing MUCAPE
values exceeding 2500 j/kg pushing north with time and good
deeper layer shear...and mostly likely remaining elevated set up
north of the sfc boundary. Large hail (potentially near/larger
than golf balls), damaging winds and heavy rain look to be the
primary hazards. The brunt of activity is expected to shift east
by sunrise Thursday.

Thursday and on into early next week...

Early Thursday morning, mainly 12-15Z...not out of the question
there could be some isolated activity lingering across NNErn
portions of the forecast area...but that is currently expected
to continue pushing east. Once it does...the forecast dries out
for the rest of the day Thursday on into Friday. Models showing
northwestelry flow aloft on Thursday in the wake of the latest
shortwave disturbance...turning more zonal on Friday across a
good chunk of the CONUS, set up between high pressure centered
over srn TX but spread out both east and west...and a larger
low/broad toughing over central Canada. A reinforcing sfc cool
front is expected to push through the region late tonight/Thurs
AM...ushering in stronger NW winds for the day on Thurs and
cooler temps. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH are expected...with
afternoon highs topping out in the mid 70s-low 80s. Those gusty
winds are then expected turn back to the south for Friday...with
warmer temps climbing back into the mid-upper 80s.

At least periodic thunderstorm chances return to the forecast
for the weekend into early next week...but confidence in the
exact timing/track of the upper level shortwave disturbances
driving them isn`t the highest at this point. Some models show
the potential for the first to bring chances in already late
Friday night into the daytime hours on Sat...with questions then
arising with the potential for strong/severe storms later in
the afternoon/evening hours, and if that could impact at least
SErn portions of the area. SPC Day 4 15 percent area currently
clips our SE areas...will see how things trend the next couple
of days. Additional disturbances keep generally low chance PoPs
in the forecast through Mon night...with things potentially
drying out mid-week. Temps Sat through Wed are up and
down...with 80s-90s Sat dropping into the low- mid 70s for Sun-
Mon, climbing back into the 80s-90s for Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few thunderstorms, potentially severe, are possible to pass by
near to just next to both KEAR and KGRI (slightly better
potential at KGRI) between 6-10z. These storms could
temporarily offer visibility reductions if heavy downpours
achieve or MVFR ceilings if the storms track close enough to
either site. Hail and strong winds can`t be ruled out of these
storms, though lack of confidence in storm tracks keeps the
mention of these hazards out of the TAF for now.

Light winds this evening will manage to eventually settle
directions out of the northwest following the overnight storms.
Gusty winds will be observed during much of the day Thursday as
speeds near 20-25kts with gusts as high as 30-35kts during the
daytime hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion