Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

486
FXUS63 KOAX 300337
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1037 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly chances for showers and storms through the weekend
  into early next week, with warm and humid conditions.

- A summer-like pattern setting up next week will keep warm,
  humid weather in place with additional daily chances for
  showers and storms through the week.

- Potential for hotter weather just beyond the forecast period
  starting next weekend going into following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A MCV is moving north over eastern Nebraska this evening,
generating the ongoing showers and occasionally flaring up new
convection. Weak shear keep these storms short-lived and weak.
This will continue its trek northward, not clearing our area
until closer to 5AM. Another weak shortwave has been producing
robust storms along a line across western and central Kansas
this evening. these are mostly being forced by the nose of the
low-level jet over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. We`ll be
watching these storms as the boundary progresses northeastward
toward our area. CAM guidance wants to pull these storms
eastward at the last minute as it approaches the Nebraska state
line, likely due to weakening of the low-level jet later in the
night. This should keep any stronger storms from getting into
our area, or if they do, should rapidly weaken. We will likely
see another band of storms develop as the shortwave pivots
northeast across our area, though, mostly exiting the area by 10
AM.

Saturday is looking like another muggy, warm day with air as
thick as pea soup. Though temperatures will peak in the low 80s,
dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s are going to make you sweat.
With all the moisture around, we`ll see a few isolated showers
pop up Saturday afternoon/evening. Nothing severe expected. What
we`re watching more closely is a more substantial trough that
will lift north across our area Saturday night into early Sunday
potentially bringing a few strong to severe storms into
southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa around midnight
Saturday night into early Sunday. Primary threats would be wind
and hail, as storms will be elevated in nature.

Another system to watch for Saturday night into early Sunday is
a convective line forecast to develop over western Nebraska and
South Dakota Saturday evening and push east toward our area
overnight. Guidance has it lifting northeast following the
instability gradient into eastern South Dakota, but there is
some potential for storms in northeast Nebraska as well from
this MCS, mainly closer to 5-7 AM Sunday morning.

As the trough over the northern Rockies continues to lift north
into the Dakotas on Sunday, a surface low develops over South
Dakota, pulling drier air east into our area from the
Southwest. The pooling of moisture along and ahead of this
boundary will lead to additional shower and storm development
Sunday afternoon, clearing the area after midnight as the dry
line and eventually a weak cold front move in overnight.

Monday should be dry through at least the daytime hours as ridging
starts to build over the Central CONUS and high pressure sinks
down over the region. With the surface high expanding eastward,
we potentially could see a moisture stream sneak back north into
our area Monday night on the western flank of the anticyclonic
circulation. This could mean the development of an MCS over
western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening, weakening as
it continues east into our area overnight.

As we go into midweek next week, we continue to see strong
ridging build up just east of our area, leading to a fairly good
overnight MCS pattern. Moisture streaming up the Central Plains
from the Gulf will generate afternoon storms again over western
Nebraska on Tuesday, developing into an MCS and pushing east
into our area overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday. An
upper-level trough nudges the ridge further east Wednesday and
Thursday, pushing the moisture stream farther east, bringing
afternoon storm potential into our area Wednesday-Friday,
developing into and MCS that pushes east into Iowa overnight.

A more substantial blocking ridge is forecast to build up next
weekend, likely bringing hot summer conditions starting a couple
weeks early. CPC is on board with this forecast, predicting a
60-70 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the 8-14
Day Temperature Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving up from the
south this evening impacting the terminals. Cigs around
4000-6000ft with a few areas with SCT lower cigs around 2500ft.
Expect cigs to start to sink around 00Z with MVFR conditions
likely by 06Z at KOFK and KLNK, and closer to 09Z at KOMA. A
line of storms is expected to move across from the west
overnight impacting KOFK and KLNK around 08-10Z, with a lower
chance (40%) of storms at KOFK than KLNK (80%). This like will
move through KOMA around 09-11Z (80% chance). We`ll see cigs
improve at KLNK after the storms clear, but KOMA and KOFK will
likely stay MVFR/IFR through much of Saturday morning. Winds
remain out of the southeast through the day on Saturday with
cigs improving to VFR toward 18Z, and winds gusting 20-25kt
through the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

927
FXUS63 KGID 300011
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
711 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Models are keying in on another round of thunderstorms
  impacting much of the local area late tonight. Given the
  available instability, some stronger storms with small hail
  and wind gusts to 60 MPH will be possible.

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected to impact at least
  parts of the local area Saturday evening/night. If storms
  develop Saturday evening, they could become severe. Hail to
  the size of ping pong balls and 60 MPH will both be possible.

- Seasonably warm temperatures (mainly 80s) are expected through
  the end of the forecast period with periodic chances for
  additional showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level disturbance passed mainly south of the local area
today. Scattered showers and a couple of isolated weak
thunderstorms were observed on its northern edge, but these are
mostly exiting the local area this afternoon. As this
disturbance exits to the east, expect a few breaks in cloud
cover through the remainder of the afternoon hours as the local
area will be inbetween disturbances...with these breaks
potentially allowing for a few additional showers or weak
thunderstorms through early evening.

Late tonight...anticipate the next upper level wave to cross the
local area from the southwest. Models have been keying in on
this disturbance all day and gradually increasing their areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late tonight...primarily
after midnight. While there is ample instability to work with as
the disturbance crosses the local area, shear is fairly weak and
widespread strong/severe storms are not expected. That said, a
few pulsy stronger storms will be possible late tonight, with
the general focus for the best coverage anticipated across
areas primarily across our Nebraska coverage area. While this
disturbance should be exiting the local area around daybreak,
some models are trying to hang on to some scattered convection
through the mid-morning hours, so gradually tapered off pops
from west to east through around 18Z.

The fairly active weather pattern of late will then continue
Saturday night as the next upper level disturbance reaches the
local area. Given strong instability and a weak CAP, little
forcing will be needed to get some activity going by early
evening, although once again, shear is weak. Given the very
strong instability, could see some large hail with the
strongest storms, and kept the wording for ping pong potential
along with wind gusts up to 60 mph in the HWO.

Thereafter...a messy west southwesterly flow pattern aloft is
forecast to continue across the plains through the end of next
week with periodic upper level disturbances maintaining an
unsettled weather pattern across the local area along with
modestly above normal temperatures in the 80s (normal high
temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s for late May/early
June).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: Main concern is the potential for scattered
thunderstorms, some of which may be strong and contain gusty
winds and small hail, late overnight. Latest models bring these
in around or just after 06Z. Given some lingering uncertainty on
overall coverage, organization, and intensity, kept this
potential as a PROB30 group. Will need to TEMPO it if latest
hi-res model trends continue. Other than the storms, may also
have to contend with MVFR, to perhaps even briefly IFR (mainly
GRI) CIGs out of ahead of the storms. Could see some reductions
in VSBYs, as well, but these should remain mainly MVFR. Storms
should mix up the low level enough to preclude anything worse
than MVFR conditions late overnight through around dawn. Outside
of any storms, winds will be modest out of the ESE/SE around
7-13kt. Confidence: Generally medium, but low on exact CIG/VSBY.

Saturday: Most of the daytime hours should be dry, but can`t
rule out a stray shower/storm just about anytime during the
morning. Lower clouds should gradually mix out/raise by late AM
or early afternoon as winds incr and bec breezy out of the SE,
sustained 15-20kt, and gusts between 25-30kt. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion