Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

739
FXUS63 KOAX 240511
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1111 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog late tonight into Christmas Eve morning, and
  again Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day. Travel could be
  impacted by the low visibilities and potential slick spots on
  untreated bridges.

- Unseasonably warm through Saturday with record or near-record
  high temperatures possible.

- Dry weather continues through the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Tonight through Thursday (Christmas Day):

Latest surface analysis reveals a front stalled from south-
central KS into central MO with a warmer and considerably more
moist air mass residing to the south of that feature. That
moisture is contributing to widespread low clouds and areas of
fog as of early afternoon. The boundary is forecast to weaken
while lifting north with low clouds and areas of fog developing
into our area late tonight into Christmas Eve morning. Some
drizzle is also possible, especially along and south of I-80.
The good news is that temperatures are expected to remain above
freezing, so we don`t anticipate any ice accumulation.

The low clouds and fog are likely to linger through the
morning, impacting afternoon temperatures, particularly in far
eastern NE and western IA where highs in the upper 40s to low
50s are forecast. We could see more sunshine elsewhere,
allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 50s. The
record high temperature of 58 at Norfolk could be within reach.

A weak front is forecast to slowly settle south through the
area Christmas Eve night before stalling across northern KS and
northwest MO Christmas Day. Light winds in the vicinity of the
front will favor the development of widespread fog and low-
clouds, which will linger into Christmas Day. Some drizzle
appears possible, but again, the best potential will exist at
locations that remain above freezing.

Reduced visibilities due to the fog could impact travel this
holiday period, as could slick spots developing on untreated
bridges.


Friday and Saturday:

The primary feature of interest this period is a short-wave
trough, which is forecast to amplify over the north-central
U.S. Saturday into Saturday night. At the surface, a strong cold
front will sweep through the region late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures are expected to warm slightly ahead of the
front with highs in the 50s and 60s both days. This forecast
update will indicate high temperatures at or within a degree of
the records at Lincoln (64/26th and 62/27th).


Sunday and Monday:

A considerably cooler air mass will filter into the region
behind the front with highs in the 20s and 30s forecast both
days. Measurable precipitation chances appear minimal through
the duration of forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Light easterly winds will gradually turn to the south overnight,
as a moist air mass drifts north from Kansas. Models continue to
indicate the potential for fog to overspread parts of central
and eastern Nebraska, potentially reaching into western Iowa by
early Wednesday morning. Currently, the best chance for MVFR to
IFR visibilities will be at KLNK from 12-17Z. KOFK and KOMA look
to be on the fringes of the foggy conditions, but could dip to
MVFR from 13-17Z. MVFR to IFR cloud cover will also infiltrate
the region early Wednesday morning, potentially bringing patchy
drizzle. The best chance for -dz remains across far southeast
NE and southwest IA, so will not include a mention in the TAF at
this time. Temperatures should remain a few degrees above
freezing overnight, precluding any icy conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

692
FXUS63 KGID 240632
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...Short Term Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The main impact in the near-term will be the potential for fog
  tonight, with another chance tomorrow night (Christmas Eve
  into Christmas Day).

- Despite the fog, above-normal temperatures continue through
  the end of the week.

- A cooldown arrives Sunday into Monday, although it will not be
  abnormally cold for late December.

- The threat for accumulating snow (or any precip for that
  matter) remains low through the rest of 2025.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF
  OUR FORECAST AREA:
Will go into more detail in the "main" morning forecast
discussion in a few hours, but for now the main thing is that:

Given observational trends ongoing within/near our extreme
southeast CWA already, and insistence of various models
(including HRRR visibility) that fog (some surely dense) will
continue gradually expanding northward/westward into more and
more of our CWA over the next several hours, have gone ahead and
issued a Dense Fog Advisory valid through Noon/12 PM today for
all but a handful of counties along the extreme western/northern
fringes of our CWA (counties where fog is least likely to reach
and/or be truly dense).

Another Dense Fog Advisory will likely be needed for late
Wednesday night into the day Thursday, but will likely defer
this potential issuance to later shifts and take things "one
Advisory at a time".

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

High clouds are increasing from the north, but it won`t be
enough to derail another day of above-normal temperatures for
the area. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will result
in the 9th-consecutive day of above normal temperatures...and
this relatively warm trend will continue through the rest of
the week.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, light southerly winds and
returning moisture will provide a favorable environment for

Lingering high cloud cover does provide some uncertainty on how
dense/widespread the fog will become, but a a Dense Fog Advisory
will likely be needed for at least parts of the area (favoring
south and east).

Skies will gradually clear on Wednesday, but lingering cloud
cover may result in a wide range in temperatures from west to
east across Neb/Kansas for Christmas Eve. Most of our area are
expected to reach the 50s and 60s. But just to our west could
reach the mid 70s, and parts of eastern Nebraska could struggle
to reach 50.

Light and variable winds will then potentially allow fog to
return to the area late Wednesday night and into the morning of
Christmas Day. At this range, details on fog are more uncertain,
but ensembles favor the eastern half of the area with the best
chance to see dense fog. Temperatures for Thursday/Christmas
continue to trend downward...largely driven by lingering clouds.
The current expectation is for highs in the 50s for most, but
there is considerable spread on the latest NBM...due to the
uncertainty of cloud cover. Regardless, its hard to complain
with temperatures in the 50s and light winds on Christmas Day.

Friday is now expected to be the warmest day of the week, aided
by WSW winds ahead of a pair of shortwaves moving through the
western US/Canada. In fact, it is possible that some areas
exceed 70 degrees (25-50% chance...highest southwest)!

A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, resulting in
breezier northwest winds. The cold air will lag behind this
front enough that temperatures still reach the 50s/60s Saturday,
but Sunday will be markedly cooler (upper 20s and 30s). Global
ensembles do hint at some light snow or flurries behind this
front on Sunday, but the overall probability for anything
accumulating is still low (10% or less).

Heading into next week, temperatures are expected to be cooler
and more "up and down" in the northwesterly flow pattern. As a
result, confidence in the day-to-day temperature trend remains
pretty low. For example, for New Year`s Eve, the 10th
percentile NBM has a high temperature of 15 degrees for
KGRI...while the 90th percentile is 60 degrees. A 45 degree
spread!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR stratus and fog is expected to move into the TAF
sites by 12z. There remains uncertainty in regards to KEAR which
looks to be on the edge of Stratus/Fog, but given the potential
for below 1 mile visibility and ceilings below 1000ft have
opted to go on the worse/lower Visibility/ceilings side of
guidance (similar to KGRI). There is also uncertainty on the
duration of fog with visibility below 1 mile, so have opted to
continue highlight this potential/time- frame with a TEMPO group
instead of a prevailing group. Fog/Stratus will clear out during
the late morning hours, first at KEAR then KGRI, with VFR
conditions around 17-18z. After fog/stratus clears, VFR
conditions are expected through the end of the TAF period,
though another round of fog and IFR/LIFR stratus is possible
just past the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES             | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 64 in 2021                | Forecast: 60
December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922      | Forecast: 53
December 26: 64 in 2005                | Forecast: 67*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 60

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 66 in 1933                | Forecast: 60
December 25: 62 in 1999,1950           | Forecast: 54
December 26: 65 in 2005                | Forecast: 68*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 60

_________________________________________________________

- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 34 in 1936                | Forecast: 33
December 25: 34 in 1959                | Forecast: 32
December 26: 38 in 1931                | Forecast: 36
December 27: 34 in 1905                | Forecast: 32

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 33 in 2005,1955           | Forecast: 33
December 25: 34 in 1922                | Forecast: 32
December 26: 38 in 1959                | Forecast: 36
December 27: 37 in 1957                | Forecast: 34

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to noon CST
     today for NEZ041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ084>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to noon CST
     today for KSZ005-017.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion