Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

815
FXUS63 KOAX 030531
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing storms will contribute to damaging wind gusts, a few
  quarter-sized hailstones, and flash flooding for areas of
  northeast Nebraska into western Iowa through 6 AM.

- There`s an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms Friday
  afternoon/evening capable of strong damaging winds, large
  hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two.

- Another round of storms may be possible Saturday evening and
  night, however it will depend on how storms move through
  Friday night.

- Hot weather continues with highs in the upper 80s and low
  90s. Heat indicies remain in the mid 90s to around 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Tonight:

An arm of convection has developed across northeast Nebraska into
western Iowa this evening, largely along a remnant outflow boundary
from an earlier South Dakotan MCS. These storms have been tricky
nail down, and generally late to the part, but have developed
nevertheless and have been exhibiting extremely slow storm
motions and back-building. This area has sufficient instability
and shear to maintain the current swath location-wise, with a
low-level jet set to continue through much of the overnight
hours. These storms have been growing upscale rather quickly
over the last hour, diminishing the hail threat and increasing
excessive rainfall concerns. Winds are also possible with any
collapsing portions of the clusters, with higher-end wind (and
possibly a tornado) possible with any grouping of storms that
orients itself into a bow. Latest runs of the CAMs have been
under-doing coverage of storms so far, but do progress a compact
MCS to the southeast through 6 AM. As of now, both a Severe
Thunderstorm and a Flash Flood Watch have been issued for the
same area, further highlighting the threat through 6 AM.

Friday and Saturday (Fourth of July):

With the poor handling of evening convection by the current suite of
models, tomorrow`s convective forecast continues to have a good deal
of uncertainty. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low
90s, with heat indices in the 95-102 degree range.

Storms for tomorrow will also be of concern, with the morning
convective activity likely leaving some kind of outflow boundary
draped from west to east across eastern Nebraska into southwest
Iowa. This will serve as a good initiating boundary during the late
afternoon and evening hours for thunderstorms that will once again
grow upscale before developing eastward out of the forecast area.
All hazards will be on the table (including a tornado or two), with
high-end wind speeds (greater than 70 mph) being depicted by several
runs of the HRRR with a more organized bowing structure. Shower and
storm chances look to carry into the overnight and early hours of
the Forth of July, which could take the wind out of the convective
sails for the afternoon and evening hours. Parameterized models
indicate the better shower and storm coverage will be to the east of
the forecast area, which could be a boon for anyone hoping to
celebrate outdoors. Nevertheless, most if not the whole area will be
dealing with heat, so messaging hydration will be the key for anyone
spending a prolonged period outside.

Sunday and Beyond:

After early morning convection left over from the fourth is kicked
to the south and east, seemingly quieter weather is looking to set
up Sunday and Monday. We`ll see the mid/upper pattern shift the
eastern edge of the ridge east of the forecast area, giving us more
predictable heat as opposed to the recent highs that were easily
affected by daytime cloudiness. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
are forecast to start the week, increasing Tuesday and Wednesday
into the low-to-mid 90s as the ridge moves farther east. Showers
and storms look increasingly likely mid-week as a shortwave
moves through the top of the ridge, but weak forcing ascent and
incoming convection from the west will make the timing and
intensity hard to nail down until we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Strong to severe t-storms have developed just north of KOFK
tonight and are expected to back-build over the aerodrome through
about 3am. They`ll finally move off to the east and leave the
area dry after that. Expect OMA and LNK to remain dry, but
storm development has been hard to pin down all day and
confidence is lower than normal.

After storms quiet down, partly cloudy skies are forecast for
the majority of Friday before more thunderstorm development on
Friday evening. Again, timing is questionable, but current
thinking is more storm initiation around the 10pm time period.
Lots of uncertainty in placement and timing remains this far
out. Have added them to KOMA and KLNK, but KOFK could easily
see some storms Friday night as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.
IA...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

129
FXUS63 KGID 030512
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms may impact (around a 30% chance)
  portions of the area this evening into tonight.

- The severe storm risk increases Friday evening into Friday
  night (up to enhanced). Large hail and damaging winds are the
  main threats.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Saturday
  (4th of July) with the highest risk across southwestern
  portions of the forecast area.

- There is around a 30% to 60% chance of showers and storms across
  the whole area Saturday evening. Chances increase further south
  (north central Kansas and far southern NE).

- There is still some uncertainty in the placement of storms
  Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over most of the western part of the country and
also includes the northern and central Plains. An upper ridge is
over most of the eastern part of the country. High temperatures
today are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 60s to low/mid 70s. The
showers from this morning have moved off to the east. Storms are
expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening in western
Kansas and may move northeastward into north central Kansas and
south central Nebraska this evening. The 12z HRRR is showing storms
weakening as they move into the forecast area later this evening
(around 10 or 11 PM). The 12z NAM12 is showing storms staying away
from the area this evening through most of the overnight period. The
12z NAMNST is showing storms moving in from the west around 7 or 8
PM and progressing eastward until midnight or 1 AM. The 12z GFS is
showing storms developing by/around 7 PM and expanding in coverage
by 10 PM. CAPE values by this evening will be around 3,500 to 5,000+
J/kg, and 0 to 6 km wind shear will be around 25 to 30 knots. Mid-
level lapse rates will generally be around 7 to 8 degrees C/km.
There is some uncertainty on when, and if, storms will impact the
area this evening into tonight. If they do, they could become strong
to severe given the above mentioned conditions. The vast majority of
the forecast area is in either a marginal (level 1 out of 5) or a
slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather per the SPC Day 1
outlook. Hail up to around quarter to half dollar size and wind
gusts up to around 60 MPH are possible.

Friday and Friday night...

Temperatures on Friday are expected to warm up a little from those
today with highs in the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. Low
temperatures Friday night will be in the low 60s to low 70s. The
whole forecast area is in either a marginal, slight, or enhanced
(level 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms Friday into Friday night.
By evening, CAPE values of around 4,000 to 5,000+ are expected
areawide. 0 to 6 km wind shear values of around 30 to 40 knots, and
mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8.5 degrees C/km are expected. A
shortwave (or multiple shortwaves) is/are expected to move over/near
the area which will aid in atmospheric lift. These conditions will
likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Large hail up to around
golf ball size, wind gusts up to around 70 MPH, and an isolated
tornado will be possible. The area of greatest risk will generally
be along and north of I-80. The timing of these storms is expected
around 6 PM to 3 AM.

Saturday and Saturday night (4th of July)...

The forecast models are trending further south with the rain and
storms for Saturday but are still not quite in agreement where to
place the precipitation. The area with the highest chances (around
60%) of showers and storms Saturday evening is north central Kansas
into far southern Nebraska. Areas north of the Tri-Cities are least
likely to experience rain and storms (around a 30% to 40% chance).
The Tri-Cities area is probably the area of greatest uncertainty
(around a 40% to 60% chance). A lot of what happens Saturday will
depend on what happens on Friday. The timing and placement of rain
and storms will also depend on the timing and placement of a weak
cold front which will move into the area on Saturday. Given fairly
high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse rates, strong to severe storms may
develop. The highest risk would be across north central Kansas and
far southern Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range
from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Low temperatures Saturday night
will be in the low to upper 60s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will then be on a slight warming
trend through Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures during this time will generally be in the 60s to low
70s. There are low chances (15% to around 20%) of showers and
thunderstorms from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon.
Severe potential on these storms is unknown at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The main concern in this TAF period is the potential for
multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

Fist off, thunderstorms currently west of the terminals are
anticipated to continue to develop eastward toward EAR/GRI early
this morning. This activity should be largely non-severe, but a
localized gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

This activity should clear the area Friday morning, and dry
conditions are expected to prevail through early afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop as early as 21-22Z, with
increasing coverage by 00-02Z Saturday. These storms have better
potential to be severe (hail, wind, and heavy rain).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion