Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

080
FXUS63 KOAX 021939
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
239 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday brings a break in the threat for severe weather.

- A summer-like pattern continues keeping warm and muggy weather
  in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tuesday afternoon temperatures have been running a few degrees
cooler than those of the past few days, but are still close to
seasonal norms with numbers peaking in the lower 80s. A passing
vorticity maxima has helped induce a few sub-severe
thunderstorms south of York, NE and Beatrice, nE this
afternoon. With shear values below 20 knots, these storms are
expected to remain unorganized and on the weaker side.

The upper-level pattern is dominated by a cut-off low spinning
over the Canadian Prairie Provinces with an amplified ridge
stretching from Missouri to the UP of Michigan with a positively
tilted trof on its eastern periphery.

.TONIGHT....

Convection is expected to remain on the forecast area`s western
edge through the afternoon / early eve before fading with the
setting of the sun. As has been the case over the past few
nights, we may see the remnants of a decaying MCS approach from
the southwest. Current guidance keeps things dry until sunrise
when a 20-30% PoP seems reasonable for the area`s western tier
of counties. Severe weather will remain unlikely.

.WEDNESDAY...

Widespread dewpoints in the 60s and highs in the 80s will leave
the day feeling summery as the ridge axis shifts east. This
should allow the southern moisture plume to push through our
area. The heat and humidity should leave plenty of instability
ahead of an advancing boundary. Again, shear will be lacking, so
storm organization will be too. But, likely PoPs and a small
chance of severe weather is expected in the northwestern portion
of the area where the boundary is progged to be by the afternoon.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

The week`s best chances of showers and thunderstorms wait for
the end of the week as Gulf moisture continues to stream in from
the southwest. CSU and machine learning forecasts suggest Friday
brings the week`s best chance of severe weather as the shortwave
continues to push east.

.THE WEEKEND...

Saturday`s forecast has dried considerably from earlier
forecasts as ridging should keep this area under mostly sunny
skies. The chance of showers and storms returns on Sunday with
the passage of a well-advertised upper-low caught up in the
southwest H5 flow.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours with
southeasterly winds forecast to remain near 10 knots over that
time. An isolated shower developed over KOMA this morning. That
chance continues through the afternoon at all three TAF sites,
but is not included in official TAFs as odds are at about 20%
or less and could happen at any time between now and about 8pm.
Dry conditions are heavily favored. If any shower/storm does
develop, it may be slow to move, but it will be short-lived.
Severe weather is unlikely.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

359
FXUS63 KGID 022004
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
304 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms (some possibly strong) are expected this
  afternoon into tonight.

- There is a marginal threat of severe storms on Wednesday
  mainly along and west of Highway 281. The best chance for
  severe weather will be during the evening and early overnight
  hours.

- Various shower and thunderstorm chances continue across the
  area Thursday through Monday.

- High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be in
  the low to mid 80s. Friday through Monday highs in the mid 80s
  to low 90s are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An upper low/trough is over southern Canada, northern Rocky
Mountains, and northern Plains. Another upper low/shortwave trough
is over south central Kansas. Winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of the southeast.
High temperatures today will generally range from the mid 70s to
low/mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are developing across
portions of the area and are expected to continue until around 10
PM. The most likely area for storm development will be along and
east of a line from Kearney to Smith Center. Some strong storms have
developed but severe storms are not expected with fairly low lapse
rates and wind shear. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
mid 50s to low/mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move into portions of the area from the southwest tonight mainly
impacting areas southwest of the Tri-Cities.

Winds will mostly be out of the south to southeast on Wednesday with
high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 80s. Storms may again
develop on Wednesday across portions of the area as shortwaves move
over the area. Surface CAPE values of around 2,500 to near 3,500
J/kg are expected on Wednesday. Wind shear will be a little higher
Wednesday than today with values of around 25 to 40 knots. Mid-level
lapse rates will be between 5.5 and around 7 degrees C/km. The
highest values of all the above mentioned parameters will generally
be across the western half of the forecast area. Areas generally
along and west of Highway 281 are in a marginal risk of severe
weather per the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook. Any severe
development is mainly expected during the evening and early
overnight hours. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or
a few degrees warmer than the previous night.

An upper trough will move over the area Thursday with more showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop. Severe weather parameters are
expected to be less than the previous day so widespread severe
weather is not expected. Cannot out rule an isolated strong to
severe storm or two. High temperatures on Thursday will
generally be similar to the previous couple of days. Low
temperatures Thursday night will generally range from the mid
50s to mid 60s.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend beginning on Friday with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be present Friday through
Monday as troughs pass over/near the area. At this time, severe
weather potential is unknown but will continue to monitor as time
gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Thunderstorms may come near or impact KGRI this afternoon into
early this evening. Thunderstorms may also come near or impact
KEAR but did not have enough confidence to include them at this
time. Winds will mostly be out of the southeast. Low ceilings
may impact both KEAR and KGRI beginning around 06z and
continuing through most, if not all, of the morning hours on
Wednesday. Did not include the low ceilings at this time due to
low confidence.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion