Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

112
FXUS63 KOAX 141922
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
222 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds will combine with dry fuels over
  northeast Nebraska to produce extreme fire conditions today
  with a Red Flag Warning in effect until 7pm.

- Periodic strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday
  evening through Monday, with the best chances Saturday,
  Sunday, and Monday afternoon/evenings.

- High temperatures will flirt with records on Friday and again
  on Sunday with temps peaking mostly in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The OAX forecast area has found itself in the warm sector of a
longwave trof pushing through the Northern Plains. Isolated
showers developed along the elevated warm front this morning
that has now pushed into central Iowa. A few radar returns have
been observed in northeast Nebraska, but with the 5 kft of very
dry air below the convection, expect it to evaporate before
hitting the ground. There have been a few 50 mph gusts on the
other side of the SD state line under some of the virga thanks
to evaporative cooling. Dewpoints have fallen into the 30s
leaving RH values generally in the lower to mid-20%s. It`s very
dry. Fires in northeastern Nebraska this afternoon would spell
trouble.

The front pushing into central Nebraska is expected to stall
overnight. It`s progged resting point is a bit farther northwest
than previous forecasts, leaving tonight`s forecast a couple of
degrees warmer. This front will be hanging around the area
through the weekend and leaving most of the area in the warm
sector with regular opportunities for thunderstorms. Widely
isolated storms are expected to continue through the evening
hours today, with very little expected to reach the ground.

Moisture will continue to pool ahead of the front this afternoon
and evening and the best chance of convection waits for later
this evening. As of 18Z, ACCAS firing in the lee of the Rockies
shows where the cyclogenesis is developing. It`ll continue east
and push through this area this evening. Guidance continues to
keep the bulk of the convection just south of the NE/KS state
line, but staffing has been beefed up here at Valley in
response to the threat (5-10%) of severe storms south of I-80.
Expect convection to leave the area by about midnight.

.FRIDAY...

Friday will be warmer, but to the relief of volunteer fire
departments across the area, humidity will continue to pool
ahead of the front and winds will be slower than today - veering
from the north to the south over the course of the day at 5-15
mph. This will help keep fire danger out of the extreme
category, though it will remain very high in northeast Nebraska
where fuels remain susceptible to extreme growth. High temps
will peak near 90 along the SD border to mid-90s at KOMA, KLNK,
and KBIE. Most locations will come close to record highs.

A shortwave, on the West Coast now, is caught up in the zonal
flow and push just south of the CWA on Friday evening.
Convection should fire along the stationary front and could
begin as early as 4pm on Friday with the southern half of the
CWA with the best chances of seeing hail and damaging winds. CAM
trends have pushed the convection much farther north than
yesterday`s runs and the threat of hail has tripled from about
a 5% chance at any given point to near 15%. Convection is
expected to be elevated so hail is the most likely scenario, but
damaging winds are possible. Tornadoes are not a threat. Not yet.

.SATURDAY...

The same pattern continues for the most part. Expect another
warm one with highs in the 80s and lower 90s under partly cloudy
skies. Severe storms may develop in the heating of the day and
will have the forecast ingredients needed for supercells. All
severe threats are possible. Believe 30-40% PoPs are reasonable.
Better chances of both rain and thunder await the development
of a powerful LLJ on Saturday night and a convective complex
progged by mid- range models that streaks ENE out of central
Kansas and across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

.SUNDAY...

With all the action over the next couple of days, the highlight
may still be on Sunday when an upper-level trof approaches from
the west. This will leave the area under a favorable pattern for
a severe weather outbreak. With a 45 knot southerly LLJ
expected to develop in the afternoon, strong shear will develop
as the 700 hPa jet has a southwesterly flow. With ample CAPE
forecast, supercells look possible with all threats possible
including strong tornadoes. The threat has grown as mean sfc
pressure has trended lower by about 4 hPa in the area suggesting
strong cyclogenesis. (Monday`s progged pressure is slipping,
too).

Rainfall could be heavy. Precipitable water will be anomalous
(1.5") with QPF climbing over the past 24 hours. The WPC has
highlighted the area for flash flood concerns, but with
everything being as dry as it has been (drought was expanded
today), expect flooding to be difficult to achieve outside of
urban areas. Still, localized areas could see 3" (90th
percentile of NBM) over the course of the weekend + Monday. The
NBM suggests about a 1 in 3 chance of 2" falling over the same
72 hour period. Flash flood guidance suggests that 3" would
have to fall in under 6 hours to cause trouble. Expect that most
of the rain will be welcome and help mitigate fire concerns.

.MONDAY... A very similar scenario to Sunday is expected
although the upper trof will be negatively tilted by that point
(better kinematics) and should set up a bit farther east than on
Sunday. Again, another severe weather outbreak is possible.

.THE REST...

The forecast quiets down for next week. Behind the departing
system, Tuesday will be cooler with highs expected to peak only
in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast across the area over the next 24
hours with some possible caveats. Isolated blowing dust has
limited visibility to 5 miles or so at a few observation
locations, but is very sporadic and with winds peaking in the
next two hours, expect the very rare dust observation thus far
to become even rarer. Have not included in the TAF. Some
guidance has produced some fog at times overnight, but the
majority does not and with dewpoints so far falling shy of
forecast numbers, will keep out of forecast for now.

There`s also a 20% chance of t-storms at KOMA (9pm) and KOFK
(7pm), but confidence levels keeps things out of the TAF for
now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

905
FXUS63 KGID 141940
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
240 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (15-30%) chances for thunderstorm late afternoon and
  early evening today and again Friday (same time).

- Potential for more expansive severe weather this weekend
  though exact details are hard to come by at this time.

- Very warm/hot temperatures through Sunday all areas,
  especially Sunday when records could be broken.

- The heat on Sunday could team with low RH and stronger winds
  to produce extreme fire weather conditions for some areas of south
  central Nebraska and north central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak inverted surface trough is working into south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas late this afternoon. Moisture
has increased slightly ahead of that feature with dewpoints
near 50 degrees along Highway 24 in north central Kansas. High
clouds spilling east have taken the top end off the temperatures
today though it is still warm and above normal. To that end,
there is some risk of an isolated storm, mainly across north
central Kansas either side of 6 PM. However, shear is weak and
warmer mid-level temperatures don`t help. So, anything that does
develop will be very limited in scope/coverage, and likely only
marginally strong/severe at most. Higher-based wind producers
would main hazard.

Friday is well above normal again with highs in the lower 90s as
the region catching much more sunshine that today, though less
wind. Winds will shift late in the afternoon across northern
areas as front sags south. That front has bit more push than
today, and will have more low level moisture as well. Areas
east and south of Hastings look like a more favored area for
a stronger/severe storm with both hail and wind the primary
factors. The window of opportunity is fairly small, probably
about 4-5 pm to 8-9 pm before storms move east and the surface
front retreats.

The weekend is interesting from a weather standpoint, but also
wrought with uncertainty. Most of the area is currently included
in a slight to potentially enhanced risk of severe weather. The
upper pattern is more favorable as a trough moves into the
Rockies providing better dynamics and shear. Low level moisture
will also increase though it could be a limiting factor at
times, especially given the ground is so dry in some areas
thanks to D3/D4 drought. While there are substantially higher
rain...and there will be rain...it may not rain everywhere, nor
is it a rain out. In fact, we are forecasting near 100 degree
temperatures Sunday, and that doesn`t exactly say lots of
clouds/rain. Right now, the favored times for storms are
Saturday night and Sunday night, while the days trend toward
more dry. Saturday night seems to have the best potential for
an organized line of storms or series of storms with severe
potential. There is lots of uncertainty with this forecast and
it is going to change with time so stay tuned.

The other thing of interest, but also uncertainty, is the
heat and potential fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon.
Even with green up in some areas, the 100 degree heat potential
would translate into extremely low relative humidity Sunday
afternoon along with strong winds. However, if convection
from the previous night/early morning areas occurs, it could
alter the low level moisture/wind set up. Still 72 hours
away, this is something to watch with time. FYI, the current
high temperature forecast for Sunday would be record breaking
for Grand Island and Hastings.

On Monday, a strong front moves through and that could bring
one final opportunity for more organized thunderstorms. After
that, temperatures are much closer too or even below normal for
the middle of next week. Rain chances will be retreating at the
same time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for both KEAR/KGRI this forecast
period though a plenty of high clouds will pass through the
region. Early this afternoon, winds will remain strong and
gusty from the gust, at times over 30 knots. However, a weakish
surface low/trough moving east will allow winds to drop off
nicely by late afternoon, and evening further by evening.
Remaining light overnight, winds will shift and swing out of the
northeast. No visibility restrictions are expected and just
periods of broken/overcast high clouds will pass across the
region.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion