Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

237
FXUS63 KOAX 121659
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1159 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Knox, Cedar, Antelope,
  Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska for Tuesday
  from Noon to 9pm. This replaces the Fire Weather Watch
  previously in effect.

- Thursday will bring the potential for fire weather concerns as
  gusty winds and low RH values will be in place over portions
  of the area.

- Thursday brings a chance for a few showers and storms to
  portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The forecast period begins with an amplified ridge over the PACNW
and Canada and a surface low over Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Overnight, the low will slide southeast into portions of the Dakotas
and Minnesota. An attendant cool front over the Dakotas will begin
pushing the Panhandle and north central Nebraska. A few sprinkles or
light showers will be possible through the overnight hours. However,
with as dry as the air has been, little to no precipitation is
expected to reach the ground.

Tuesday, the cool front will push into the region. Unfortunately, it
will be bring in some gusty winds and dry air. Slightly cooler air
will move into the region behind the front, with expected highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s in north central Nebraska to the
low to mid-80s for areas along and south of Hwy 92. There remains
considerable concern that with wind gusts of up to 35mph and minimum
RH values in the upper teens to mid-20s, dry fuels, and ample
sunshine, that near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
will be met in north central Nebraska during the late morning
through the afternoon. The previous Fire Weather Watch for Knox,
Cedar, Antelope, Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, which will be in effect from
Noon to 9pm Tuesday.

Wednesday, the ridge over the Rockies begins to shift east. Expect a
pretty nice day Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the region. Winds will be noticeably lighter with high
pressure in place.

Thursday brings the ridge across the area and off toward the
northern Great Lakes. A shortwave trough over central Montana will
slide east across the Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect
gusty winds through the day with a fairly tight pressure gradient
over the region. A warm front will move to the east of the forecast
area through the day with another boundary coming in from the west.
High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 70s to mid-80s
across the region. Dry conditions are also expected, which, in
combination with gusty winds and dry fuels in northeastern
Nebraska may result in high fire danger. This will be something
to monitor for as we get closer to the event.

The other question with Thursday will be whether we are able to get
any strong/severe weather. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to kick off along the boundary Thursday, bringing a much
needed chance for some rain.

A shortwave trough lifts into the region Saturday, bringing a chance
for a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Weekend
temperatures will be quite summer-like, with some models hinting at
highs reaching the 90s in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A cold front is moving
through this afternoon bringing a wind shift to north-
northwesterly winds with gusts 25 to 35 kt. Strongest winds will
be in northeast Nebraska. Winds will drop off around 01-03Z this
evening, staying light out of the northwest into Wednesday.
Scattered clouds this afternoon will become mostly clear this
evening and stay mostly clear into Wednesday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

188
FXUS63 KGID 121149
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 9 PM today
  for most of our western counties where sufficient "green up"
  has not yet occurred due to the ongoing severe to exceptional
  drought.

- Well above normal temperatures (10-20 degrees above normal)
  combined with a dry airmass and occasionally breezy/windy
  conditions will result in additional near critical to critical
  fire weather conditions through at least this weekend.

- Rain chances are generally slim to none most of this week,
  with the best chance (30-50%) being Saturday or Sunday
  depending on the timing of the next storm system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The primary forecast concern centers around near critical to
critical fire weather conditions almost every day across at
least portions of our forecast area. Please see the updated
"Fire Weather" section below for additional detailed
information regarding daily fire weather concerns (RH/wind).

Today...
An upper level trough tracking from Minnesota into the Great
Lakes will have an associated cold front racing through our
forecast area this morning. However, the airmass behind the
cold front is only a few degrees cooler, so going from mid 80s
yesterday to lower 80s today. We were breezy out of the
southwest on Monday, now we will be breezy out of the north
today (gusts 25-35 mph). RH values will again be very low this
afternoon bottoming out between 15-20%. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued for most areas that have not experienced sufficient
"green up" due to the ongoing drought.

Wednesday...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will track across
our forecast area. Warm/dry weather (highs in the 80s) will
persist with light winds in the morning and then gradually
increasing southerly winds across western zones during the
afternoon as the surface high slides east.

Thursday...
Don`t get your hopes up for rain with some of those low
confidence 20% chances. Most if not all areas will probably
remain dry.

Friday through Sunday...
The 00Z ECMWF is slowing the next upper trough down, which may
result in better rain chances on Sunday than on Saturday
depending on if this trend holds. Right now our forecast splits
the difference with the highest rain chances being Saturday
night. This could be a decent upper trough and probably our best
real chance at rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A noticably warmer and windy day has been realized across the
local area with many locations climbing into the mid-80s the
past few hours. With southwest winds gusting near 40 MPH at
times, critical fire weather concerns are being observed across
much of the area, and anticipate the Red Flag warning to remain
in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A weak cold front is expected to rapidly push south across the
area by Tuesday morning, bringing with it a shift in winds and
a continuation of dry air in its wake. While temperatures may
be a few degrees cooler behind this front, the main impact will
be the breezy north winds that will sweep across the local area
through the daytime hours. These breezy winds...gusting to near
35 MPH...will combine with low relative humidity values to
promote another afternoon with heightened fire weather concerns.

High pressure aloft will then push back across the local area
for Wednesday and Thursday, helping temperatures climb to near
or over 90 degrees by Thursday afternoon. At the same time
Thursday, winds will increase significantly out of the south
ahead of the next system, with gusts over 40 MPH anticipated for
the afternoon hours. As the front approaches the local area,
could see a return to some widely scattered Thunderstorm
Thursday afternoon or evening firing up near the dry line to our
west, but little if any precip is anticipated locally. While
the main upper level low is then anticipated to pass well to
our north on Friday, the associated front should cross the area
bringing with it another shift in wind direction, but likely no
noticeable cool-down.

Better chances for precip then return over the upcoming weekend
as a stronger upper level trough and front reach the area
Saturday afternoon/evening. This system will likely provide the
forcing for more active weather across the local area, with the
potential for a few severe storms not out of the question. Will
continue to monitor, but the day 6 SPC outlook brings the 15%
severe line just a few counties south of our local coverage area
and model soundings indicate plenty of instability and shear
across the local area for some organized elevated storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The cold front is expected to move through our TAF sites around
13-14Z, which will result in a quick wind shift to breezy northerly
winds. The wind is then expected to remain out of the north
through the remainder of the day before becoming light and more
easterly late evening after sunset. VFR conditions will prevail
with scattered high clouds this morning giving way to clear
to mostly clear skies this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today...
A cold front will race southeast across the forecast area this
morning resulting in gusty northwest winds (25-35 mph) and drier
air (afternoon RH values of 15-20%). Therefore, a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for most of our western counties where sufficient
"green up" has not yet occurred due to the ongoing (severe D2) to
(exceptional D4) drought conditions.

Wednesday...
Afternoon min RH values will once again fall into the 15-20% range.
However, an area of surface high pressure will slide east across the
area resulting in lighter surface winds especially in the morning and
across eastern zones throughout the day. Stronger southerly winds
(25-30 mph) are expected across our far western zones (Dawson to
Furnas Counties) by mid to late afternoon. Therefore, we may need
another Red Flag Warning for our far west on Wednesday, or it will at
least be very close to Red Flag conditions.

Thursday...
RH values will be a bit higher (20-30%) and the stronger winds
(30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher and
then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon.

Friday...
Currently appears to be drier with RH values around or below 20%, but
with lighter winds (20%) back
into the region.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion