Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

606
FXUS63 KOAX 051029
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer Sunday with highs in the 60s.

- Rain could mix with or change over to all snow on Monday and
  Tuesday mornings with some minor accumulations possible. The
  highest potential for slick spots will be during the Tuesday
  morning commute (10-20% chance).

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and
  storm chances for much of the upcoming week.

- Very high fire danger is forecast in northeast Nebraska
  Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures warm into the 60s and
  70s and winds gust 25-35 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Relatively quiet across the area this evening with surface high
pressure building into western NE. This will allow for clear
skies overnight with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Sunday will be warmer than Saturday as the surface
high pushes into eastern KS and westerly downslope flow sets up
through at least central NE, allowing temperatures across
eastern NE and western IA to get into the lower to mid 60s in
most spots. Guidance also suggests it may get a touch breezy by
mid to late afternoon with model soundings showing 25-30+ kts at
the top of the mixed layer and EPS members showing mean gusts
of 25-30 mph across much of the area.

A cold front will push south through the area Sunday night into
early Monday, with strengthening mid-level frontogenesis
setting up behind it and leading to increasing precipitation
chances starting early Monday across northeast NE into west-
central IA. Model soundings show a fair amount of low level dry
air to overcome, but most still show at least a brief period
where the column saturates enough for something to reach the
ground, but it should be pretty light. As far as type through
Monday, it should be a mix of rain and snow early Monday
transitioning to mainly rain as we warm up during the day.
Currently expecting maybe a couple tenths of an inch of snow
with relatively warm ground helping to melt anything of note
through Monday. That said, ensembles do give a 10-20% of 1"
falling in a narrow band across northeast NE through Monday
morning.

Precipitation chances will spread southward Monday night
through Tuesday as the aforementioned frontogenesis edges south
and warm air advection strengthens. Expect rain to switch to a
rain/snow mix or all snow as we cool down Monday night with a
transition back to rain during the day Tuesday. Soundings
suggest saturation will last much longer at a given spot
compared to Monday, thus increasing potential for accumulating
snow and slick spots. Still a fair amount of spread on where the
primary band will set up, but guidance suggests a 30- 50%
chance of at least 1". Should this pan out, the Tuesday morning
commute could be slick in some spots.

By Wednesday, guidance is in good agreement of a strong upper
level trough and associated surface low pushing along or just
south of the Canadian border and eventually dragging a cold
front through the forecast area. Still some questions on exact
timing, but guidance is in decent agreement that we`ll have some
showers and storms along the front. Ahead of the front, EPS
guidance suggests we`ll see southwest winds gusting 25-40 mph
with temperatures getting into the 60s and 70s and RH in the 20s
and 30s. Pending precipitation, this could lead to some very
high fire danger, especially in northeast NE where RH will be
lowest. Again, this will likely depend on front timing.

The boundary looks to stall in or just south of the forecast
area while various bits of shortwave energy look to eject out of
a larger scale trough building into the western CONUS. Still
lots of details to work out, with the primary one probably being
the position of the front, but for now, the setup favors
maintaining a 40-70% chance of showers and storms Thursday
through the weekend. Finally, for what it`s worth, GEFS-based
machine learning severe weather probabilities indicate at least
small (5%) daily chances of severe weather in this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts late this morning,
with gusts up to 20 to 30 kts possible through the afternoon.
Wind speeds will decrease below 12 kts shortly after 00Z this
evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

700
FXUS63 KGID 051139
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, less windy, and seasonably pleasant for Easter Sunday.

- Cooler to start the new work week with some potentially
  significant temperature gradients across the local area from
  north to south. Mainly dry through Wednesday with
  precipitation chances generally low and/or light.

- Warmer on Wednesday, though exactly how warm will depend on
  the timing of our next significant cold front.

- Much better rain chances for the second half of the week and
  perhaps into next weekend, as well, but still some model
  differences on specifics and location of highest rain amounts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Today should be quite a bit nicer than yesterday thanks to full
sunshine, lighter winds, and warmer temperatures. It`s not that
there`s not going to be ANY wind today, there will be, but
it`ll be much lighter at mostly 5-20 MPH (lightest S, strongest
N), and the wind won`t have as much bite to it with warmer temps
in the 60s to around 70F and good sunshine.

Forecast becomes quite a bit trickier for the start of the new
work week, particularly in terms of temperatures. A cold front
will move into the area from the N tonight, then settle
somewhere over central Plains on Monday. This front could try to
make some northward progress as a warm front on Tuesday, though
some model guidance (such as the 00Z EC) isn`t quite as
aggressive with this. All this means there could be some
significant temperature gradients across the area Mon-Tue,
perhaps on the order of 20 to 30 degrees, with maybe only 40s to
lower 50s N, to 60s to around 70 in the S. The cooler northern
areas could also have some iso-scat light precipitation, either
rain or wet snow...during the day Monday over far N/NE zones,
then just about anywhere within south central Nebraska Mon night
into Tue AM. None of this activity looks particularly heavy -
few hundredths to tenth, or less.

Wednesday still looks like the warmest day of the week for the
area as a whole. However, the timing of the next cold front has
trended a bit faster, which could keep portions of the area
(mainly N of I-80) in the 60s, vs 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.

Models still support an uptick in precipitation chances for the
later half of the week - both in terms of coverage and amounts.
With that said, there are still some fairly significant model
differences on the latitude of the axis of heaviest amounts.
Most recent trends have been to focus the more persistent
activity in KS vs NE...but there`s still plenty of time to fine
tune the details. Cooler, but still seasonably average-ish
temperatures, will accompany the rain chances late week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends
over Nebraska and Kansas. Gusty, northwest winds are across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High
temperatures today will range from the 40s to the 60s but winds will
make it feel cooler. Near critical fire weather conditions are
expected this afternoon (west of the Tri-Cities area) with minimum
humidity values of around 22% - 26% across western portions of the
area and wind gusts of 20-30+ MPH. Winds will be light out of the
northwest and west tonight with clear skies and temperatures cooling
into the 20s and 30s.

Winds will transition from the west to north northwest on Sunday but
will be much lighter than today. The area will be in between 2
surface lows on Sunday which will allow for temperatures to warm up
into the 60s and 70s. Winds will transition to the east northeast
Sunday night with low temperatures a little warmer than the previous
night but still in the 20s and 30s. Cooler air will move into the
area from the northeast on Monday with high temperatures expected to
generally range from the 40s to the 60s. Some light rain showers may
develop (15%-30% chance) mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities on
Monday with an increase in atmospheric lift. Winds will transition
to the east and southeast Monday night with precipitation (rain
possibly mixed with snow) possible (15% - 40% chance). Low
temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the 20s and 30s
(cooler than the previous night).

Enhanced upper lift will move over the area on Tuesday. This along
with southeasterly winds may result in increased cloud cover and
moisture. Drizzle along with light rain/light snow will be possible
on Tuesday (30% to near 60% chance) with any snow being in the
morning hours. There are uncertainties in how long the cloud cover
and moisture will remain over the area on Tuesday which has lead to
uncertainties in high temperatures. As of now, expecting high
temperatures on Tuesday to range from the low 50s to low 70s
although some places across the north may not get out of the 40s.
Winds will increase out of the south to southwest Tuesday night
which will result in warmer low temperatures. At this time,
expecting lows to mostly be in the 40s.

An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Wednesday sending a cold front southward. Temperatures are expected
to warm up on Wednesday ahead of the cold front but there are some
uncertainties in regards to how warm it will get. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold
front will move into the area on Thursday with quite a bit of
uncertainty in high temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop associated with this front. High uncertainty in
regards to temperatures continues into Friday along with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms (50% to 75% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period. Winds will be fairly modest today and
tonight out of the W to NW, with highest speeds around 8-13kt
during the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion