Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

704
FXUS63 KOAX 200447
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be warm again on Friday, and even warmer on
  Saturday. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 90s across
  much of the area, and the current forecast is near or
  exceeding record temperatures at several locations.

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today through
  Sunday. The strongest combination of very dry air and gusty
  winds is likely to occur Saturday afternoon into early
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Through Friday Night...

Thursday was quite the beautiful spring day with warm temperatures
and relatively light winds. Temperatures overperformed a lot of
guidance, and see reason for that trend to continue in the next
couple of days, even as remarkably warm as some of that guidance is.
There`s been some warm advection aloft over the past 12 hours, and
now water vapor imagery is showing a weak short wave trough about to
pass to our north, flattening the ridge slightly later today. This
will turn winds out of the north, but the front is not a true cold
front as much as it is a wind shift as the orientation of the post-
frontal advection quickly brings warmer air aloft than even
yesterday. So expect plenty of warming through the day and mixing
into the EML by late in the day. This will bring high temps into the
lower to mid 80s and RH into the teens in many of our Nebraska
counties. The good news is that winds should behave today, but
especially areas west of a Fairbury to Lincoln to Tekamah line could
have gusts up to 20 mph, and perhaps an occasional gust higher than
that late in the afternoon. This will result in very high fire
danger, but doesn`t appear likely to be enough wind to warrant a Red
Flag at this time.

Saturday Fire Weather and Heat...

Early on Saturday, 850 hPa temperatures will be VERY warm for this
time of year at +16 to +20C with continued warm advection from the
southwest over the course of the day. This warm airmass is also very
dry throughout the depth of the troposphere so little to no cloud
cover is expected, even in the mid/upper trop. Model guidance is
very consistent that daytime heating will be extremely efficient,
fully mixing out the morning boundary layer and realizing dry
adiabatic lapse rates down to the surface from the warm layer above.
It may take a while to do this, and during that warming phase do not
expect wind gusts greater than 15-20 mph or so. However, as we get
past 2 PM and closer to 4 PM, it becomes increasingly likely that
we`ll mix out the boundary layer into the very dry steep lapse rates
above. Wind fields are also stronger in this elevated mixed layer,
so increased sustained winds with increased westerly gusts will also
begin at that time. It is difficult to assess just how strong the
winds will be. At this time have increased sustained and gust speeds
into the upper quartile of model guidance, but there is some
potential for infrequent stronger gusts of perhaps 30 kts at times
as mean winds in the well-mixed 5-10k foot AGL layer are around 34
kts. The very warm temperatures and very dry airmass will lead to
relative humidity values at least down into the low teens. It`s
worth noting that this scenario fits the conceptual model for
reality to be near the minimum model guidance for RH, near the
maximum for temperatures, and close to the upper end for winds. HRRR
and RAP are the very low end of guidance for RH, as they often are
on dry days, with RH dropping into the single digits in western
parts of the forecast area. With all of this in mind, will continue
the fire weather watch at this time. The wind speed forecast is
borderline for local criteria, but the RH is WELL below standard
criteria, fuels are totally cured and quite dry even after recent
snow, and there is some potential for winds to overperform the
current forecast. With these conditions and temperatures in the low
90s, it will probably be a rather volatile fire weather scenario.

Speaking of those temperatures, the current forecast highs would
break or tie existing records set in 1907 at Omaha, Lincoln, and
Norfolk. It will also be in the discussion for warmest ever March
temperatures.

Sunday and Beyond:

Sunday features a stronger cold front with a greater meridional
component to the winds and cool advection. Even with a 30 degree
cool down, Sunday`s temperatures will still be much warmer than last
week with highs in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. Post-
frontal winds will be quite gusty, with gusts to 35 mph possible. No
precipitation is expected with the front, and RH will drop into the
30-40 percent range, leading to at least very high fire danger, even
with the cooler temperatures. If winds are stronger or RH a bit
lower, could approach Red Flag on Sunday as well.

Monday will be a bit cooler but with light winds will really be
quite pleasant for this time of year. Tuesday into Wednesday
features another warming trend, with good model agreement on another
cool front reaching the area late Thursday or Friday. Precip chances
through this period are quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm southerly winds will gradually veer to northerly
overnight. Low-level wind shear will work into KOMA and KLNK
during the overnight hours as 30kt westerly winds move in at
1000-2000 ft AGL. Winds will back to southwesterly through the
afternoon, with a few gusts in the 12-16 kt range possible.
Skies will remain mostly clear, with a few high-level clouds
passing by.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

610
FXUS63 KGID 200559
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions remain in the forecast through the weekend into
  most of next week.

- Record breaking temperatures are still in the forecast to end
  the week, especially on Saturday when even monthly records
  are at risk.

- Critical fire weather conditions are still a concern for
  Saturday, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect area-wide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the region tonight.
Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing little
change in the overall pattern, as we continue to sit under
northwesterly flow...set up between high pressure anchored over
the Desert SW/northward extending ridging along the West Coast
and a trough axis draped along the East Coast. Satellite imagery
also showing that outside of a few patches of mid-upper level
clouds passing through, skies are mostly clear. At the surface,
The pattern across the area remains fairly weak, with winds
either generally WSWrly or variable.

Today...

Overall not looking at any significant changes to conditions
across the region today...with the dry forecast continuing.
Models are in good agreement showing little change in the NWrly
flow aloft, though a subtle shortwave disturbance passing well
to our northeast will help to push a sfc frontal boundary
through the region through the morning hours. This boundary will
usher in a switch to more north-northwesterly winds for the
daytime hours...and while most models are in pretty good
agreement topping speeds out around 15 MPH, can`t rule out at
least a few gusts closer to 20 MPH during the earl-mid afternoon
hours, then tapering off late afternoon. Expecting mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies...with models showing high temps topping
out similar to Thursday, mainly in the mid-upper 80s. See
climate section below for more on temperature record potential.
Forecast relative humidity values are expected to fall into the
teens this afternoon...and while expected winds look to keep
critical fire wx conditions from developing, anywhere those
winds can gust closer to 20 MPH, even just occasionally,
potential for near-critical conditions will be there.

This weekend...

Dry forecast remains in place for the weekend...with Saturday
still looking to be the biggest concern of the forecast period
due to fire weather issues...with record breaking heat and
gusty winds expected. Models are in good agreement showing upper
level flow turning a bit more west-northwesterly to start the
weekend, with the main ridging flattened a touch by disturbances
crossing near the US/Can border. The thermal ridging axis looks
to slide a bit further east into the region...with mixing
potential aided by winds turning more west- southwesterly ahead
of an approaching frontal boundary. It`s not just daily high
temperature records being threatened for Mar. 21st, the all-time
March high temperature is at risk as well as highs climb into
the 90s area-wide...see the climate section below for more
record details.

The expected highs in the 90s, combined with a continued dry
airmass, is forecast to bring relative humidity values
plummeting into at least the low teens...some values in the
single digits is not out of the question. Southwesterly winds
gusting around 30 MPH is expected during the afternoon hours on
Saturday...then a complicating factor for any fires that develop
is the surface frontal boundary that will be passing through
Saturday night-early Sun AM...which will bring a switch to
northerly winds, which will continue to be gusty.

This frontal boundary brings a notably cooler end to the
weekend...with forecast highs for Sunday roughly 30 degrees
cooler than Saturday, topping out in the 60s. The gusty
northerly winds look to continue through most of the day
Sunday...the cooler temps should keep relative humidity values
from dropping much below the mid-upper 20 to mid 30 percent
range.

Monday and on...

Overall no notable changes were made to the forecast...which
remains largely dry. Current forecast highs are a bit of a
roller coaster ride...climbing into the 70s-80s by Wednesday,
then potentially back in the 50s by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures prevailed
across the region this afternoon. Temperatures so far have been
running 3-5 degrees above yesterdays hourly readings, with
record high temperatures for both Hastings and Grand Island this
afternoon well within reach.

With high pressure persisting aloft, expect warm and dry
conditions to continue through Saturday, with similar
temperatures across the region tomorrow (maybe 1-2 degrees
cooler based on 850MB temps), followed by temperatures surging
on Saturday ahead an approaching cold front. In fact, high
temperatures Saturday will likely set new all time record high
temperatures - by several degrees - for the entire month of
March!

As the front approaches on Saturday, expect an uptick in winds
as well, which combined with the hot and dry airmass will result
in critical fire weather conditions. Currently there is a fire
weather watch for Saturday - but fully expect this to eventually
be upgraded to a Red Flag warning sometime either later tonight
or on Friday.

As the front crosses the area on Sunday, expect a fairly notable
drop in temperatures for Sunday and Monday, with high
temperatures forecast to only top out in the 60s and 70s, or
still about 10 degrees above seasonal norms. In fact, expect the
upper level ridge to restrengthen across the local area again
behind this front, with a potential return to additional record
high temperatures by next Wednesday.

In short, unseasonable warm and dry conditions are favored to
finish out the month of March across the local area, with
little signal in model ensembles for any significant
precipitation chance or chance of a significant cool-down
across the local area for at least the next 10-14 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
transition from the southwest to the northwest by 12z then to
the north by 15z. Winds will then transition back to the
southwest by 03z Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Potential Record Warm Maximum Temperatures:

Thursday March 19          New Record High   Previous Record
Hastings                        86               84 (1921)
Grand Island                    87               86 (1921)

Friday March 20            Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        85               82 (1939)
Grand Island                    85               84 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        94               87 (1910)
Grand Island                    94               83 (1988)

***Note: The all-time March max temperature is 90 degrees
at both Grand Island and Hastings***

Potential Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

Friday March 20            Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        47               46 (2011)
Grand Island                    46               50 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        49               47 (2012)
Grand Island                    48               54 (1911)

Temperature records for Hastings date back to 1907 and records
for Grand Island date back to 1895.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Schuldt
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion