Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

978
FXUS63 KOAX 140450
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday,
  especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

- Thursday appears dry with our next weather system arriving
  sometime next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After an active stretch of weather, a welcomed respite has
arrived. A cold front has pushed through the region late this
evening as an amplifying trough continues to dig into the
central and eastern CONUS. Behind the cold front, cooler and
drier air continues to filter in. By sunrise on Sunday, a jacket
may be required as a cool north wind with temperatures in the
50s is expected. High pressure will settle into the region by
Sunday afternoon, offering up temperatures in the 70s under
mostly sunny skies. A similar forecast begins the work week as
surface high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures
start in the 50s once again, but afternoon highs increase into
the lower 80s on Monday. Skies remain mostly sunny. The same
will largely hold true for Tuesday. The one exception is a low
chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm as a weak cold
front sweeps across the region early Tuesday morning.

Our next chance of rain is not set to arrive until Wednesday. A
more prominent trough begins to dig towards the central Plains
by Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of this, the ridge will build
slightly, pushing our temperatures into the lower 90s. As the
trough moves overhead, another front is anticipated to push
across the area. Along and ahead of the front has the best
chance of thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
With the front pushing through, Thursday appears a little cooler
and dry. The evolution of the pattern remains a bit uncertain by
the end of the week into next weekend. That said, a weakening of
the eastern CONUS trough, a building of the central CONUS ridge,
and a digging western CONUS trough would lend to a warmer and
potentially more active forecast pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the
terminals. Expect northwest winds around 5-10kts overnight,
increasing to 10-15kts by 15Z at KOFK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

616
FXUS63 KGID 140656
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
156 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- If you are looking for drier weather, the week ahead is
  probably the week for you, as rain chances are minimal and
  light through next Friday.

- Look for a comfortable airmass for most of the week ahead as
  the week starts cooler than normal, warms and the cools again.
  There is really only one day (Wednesday) with the expectation
  of "very warm" or solidly above normal temperatures, and that
  seems to be trending a bit cooler.

- Though not explicitly in this forecast period, better chances
  for rain/thunderstorms appear likely from 21st through the
  28th.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Been a bit up and down the 3 nights (plus tonight) with severe
weather, then a very quiet night and then some severe weather last
night. We are back on the quiet weather scenario with the passage
of a cold front earlier today ushering in a drier and cooler
air mass. High pressure is building ont the area from the
northwest with largely clouds skies across south central
Nebraska and lingering high clouds across northern Kansas thanks
to thunderstorms to the south.

Today will feel more like fall than mid-June with dewpoints down in
the 40s and highs in the 70s. Look for a good amount sunshine but an
upper shortwave in Montana early today will slip southeast in the
northwest flow across the area this evening. The should bring an
increase in mid/high clouds at least, if not even a few sprinkles,
or the "look" of sprinkles later this afternoon and into the
evening. Rain amounts will be of the trace variety. Skies will clear
again behind the wave tonight and set the stage for another cool
morning Monday with low temperatures as much as 10 degrees below
normal.

After the cool start, Monday will be a touch warmer than today with
a light westerly wind, occasionally gusting up in the afternoon.
Another shortwave will pass northeast of the area Monday evening,
potentially bringing a few showers, though rain amounts will be
sparse and very light again. It won`t be as quite as cool Monday
night as a weak southerly flow develops.

Tuesday looks dry and a bit warmer still highs in the lower to
middle 80s, which is about where we should be. Southerly winds
will increase and continue into the Tuesday night ahead of the next
front set to move across south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas on Wednesday. Good warm advection will lift lows back into
the 60s Tuesday night and inspire some modest moisture return. To be
100% honest, the timing of the frontal passage Wednesday looks like
a morning event, which probably won`t conducive to much rain
chance. Also, it will be warmer Wednesday due to the warm start
and good mixing, but I am not sure we will be as warm as the
forecast currently depicts. Temperatures have been trending down
and model guidance suggests cold advection by afternoon.

After that, we cool back Thursday but will warm a bit next Friday
and Saturday. Thursday and Friday are mostly dry. We will see
another trough move into the northern plains next weekend and that
could promote a more widespread and better rain chance by next
Saturday, especially later in the day. That precipitation may
linger into Father`s Day.

Looking a bit further ahead, the weather pattern still looks a
bit unsettled in week 2, which could spell better rain
chances from the 21st through the 28th. Temperature look to be
near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As of early afternoon, an outflow boundary from morning
convection has stalled out over northern KS with the main cold
front slowly pushing through south-central and eastern Nebraska.
A few cells have already begun to develop north of Columbus, and
additional development is expected later in the
afternoon (by 3-5pm). If anything, this front has trended a bit
slower and further north, which brings potential for storms to a
larger portion of the area. Based on latest CAM guidance, roughly
the southeastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area has at least SOME
chance for t-storms, but the highest threat for severe weather
will remain further southeast where instability is highest and
convection will encounter less inhibition. Large hail and
damaging wind are the main threats, as the low level wind
profile is not favorable for tornadoes.

Storms should depart the area to the southeast by 8-9pm this
evening. Clearing skies in the post-frontal airmass will then
allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s and 50s by Sunday
morning.

The daytime on Sunday remains cool, with highs struggling to
reach 70 degrees in some places. Cloud cover will increase as an
upper level perturbation moves through, and a few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out. But most areas will remain completely dry.

Westerly surface winds return for Monday, which will aid
temperatures back into the upper 70s for most. The warming trend
then continues on Tuesday with rising heights aloft.
Temperatures peak on Wednesday ahead of a southeasterly-moving
shortwave. Most areas should reach the 90s, and portions of KS
could approach/exceed 100 degrees. This shortwave could bring a
few showers/t-storms to the area on Wednesday, but this will be
more favorable to our east.

Thursday looks to be a bit cooler behind this system, with
ensembles continuing to depict mostly dry conditions through the
end of the week. Rain/tstorm chances then increase again as we
head into Father`s Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout
the period, as surface high pressure maintains seasonably-dry
and stable air for at least a few days. That being said, there
is a small (10%) chance for a few passing sprinkles/a very brief
light shower from mid-afternoon into early-evening. This meager
precipitation possibility is currently considered too low
confidence in occurrence/too low of an impact for TAF
inclusion, with higher confidence in there simply being a VFR
ceiling around 9K ft. AGL.

As for winds, direction will prevail northerly to northwesterly
through most of the period. Speeds will not be much of issue,
with sustained values at-or-below 10KT much of the time. That
being said, especially the heart of the daylight hours (15-21Z)
will likely bring slightly-breezy conditions with gusts as high
as 15-20KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion