Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

350
FXUS63 KOAX 211759
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1259 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger continues Saturday afternoon
  into Sunday.

- A cold front Sunday morning brings northerly wind gusts of 35
  to 45 mph. Winds will decrease during the afternoon and
  evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue early next week with
  another warming trend through at least mid-week. Dry
  conditions are anticipated with precipitation chances unlikely
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Saturday and Sunday

Record warmth remains on track for this afternoon. This record-
warmth is supported by a massive area of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest. Temperatures in the low 90s are likely to break a
slew of records from 1907 across the area. On top of the hot
conditions, it is going to be exceptionally dry with relative
humidity falling into the teens and single digits by mid-afternoon.
As a result, a Red Flag Warning continues across the region through
this afternoon into Sunday morning. Thankfully, this level of heat
is short-lived with a cold front anticipated during the morning
hours on Sunday. The cold front will be strong with northerly wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph immediately following frontal passage. Wind
speeds gradually decrease through the afternoon and evening on
Sunday. Sunday`s high temperatures are forecast to be 30 to nearly
40 degrees cooler than today, Despite this substantial change,
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s remain above normal.

Next Week

Temperatures begin to warm once again heading into next week as high
pressure builds back into the area. Temperatures climb a degree or
two on Monday. Temperatures climb into the 60s to near 70 on Tuesday
before climbing further into the 70s to near 80 by Wednesday.
Alongside this heat, dry conditions are forecast once again. This
may result in additional very high fire danger across the area. A
cold front begins to decrease temperatures on Thursday before
temperatures fall further on Friday. The cooler temperatures may
last into next weekend behind this second cold front. Overall, the
forecast remains mostly dry. While there may be a low chance of a
shower or two with the passing fronts, it is unlikely that anyone
will see anything meaningful. The next best chance of precipitation
is not anticipated until late next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
Southwesterly winds with a few gusts this afternoon. Winds
speeds decrease slightly this evening, but low-level winds
increase due to a passing disturbance. LLWS is anticipated
during this time at OMA and LNK. A cold front swings south
through the region early Sunday morning. Strong northerly winds
are forecast behind this front with gusts upwards of 25 to 35
kts. Wind speeds begin to decrease by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

740
FXUS63 KGID 211812
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
112 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Little change made to the forecast in the short term, which
  includes historic, record-breaking March heat. Highs today are
  expected to climb well into the 90s, not only threatening
  daily records for today, but records for the entire month of
  March. See the CLIMATE section below for more information.

- This heat, combined with expected gusty SW winds, will result
  in critical fire weather conditions across the area today, a
  Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11AM this morning
  through 4AM Sunday morning.

- Tonight into Sunday morning, a strong cold front pushing
  through the region will usher in an abrupt switch to gusty
  north winds...with gusts near 40 MPH not out of the question
  with the initial passage. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH will be
  possible through the daytime hours on Sunday...and colder air
  accompanying the front drops highs back into the 60s for most
  locations.

- The forecast Monday through Friday remains overall dry. There
  are a few spotty precipitation chances, but confidence at this
  point is low, so chances remain around 20 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently...

Been another night of quiet conditions anchored across the
forecast area...and outside of a few patches of upper level
clouds, skies remain mostly clear. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place
across the Central Plains, set up between high pressure centered
over the Desert SW/northward ridging and broad troughing along
the East Coast. The surface pattern early this morning remains a
weak one across the area, keeping winds light/variable.

This weekend...

Overall, no significant changes were made to the forecast for
this weekend, which remains dry. Satellite imagery showing
that while upper level flow is currently northwesterly, models
remain in good agreement showing shortwave disturbances moving
onto/through the Pac NW will be breaking down that ridging with
time today, with more zonal flow expected for Sunday.

For today, the primary forecast concern lies with fire weather
conditions...and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the
entire forecast area. The current light/variable winds in place
will be gradually turning more south-southwesterly through the
early morning hours, increasing in speed as sfc low pressure
deepens over the High Plains and mixing potential increases
under little cloud cover. Models have been pretty consistent
showing that today is not a high- end day as far as winds
go...but sustained speeds this afternoon around 15-20 MPH and
gusts around 25-30 MPH will be possible. With the upper level
ridging getting dampened through the day, models show the main
thermal ridge axis shifting a touch east...and aided by
increased mixing and a dry air mass, still looking at record
breaking heat and high temperatures for today. Still looking at
widespread mid 90s this afternoon, with the potential for at
least a handful of spots to reach into the upper 90s...see the
climate section below for more on records. Along with the
increased mixing/dry air mass aiding with winds...dewpoints this
afternoon are expected to drop into the 20s-30s...combined with
temps in the 90s results in extremely low relative humidity
values falling into the single digits to low teens. No change
was made to the start time of the Red Flag Warning of 11AM this
morning.

This evening/tonight...relative humidity values look to be very
slow to recover, with it potentially being near midnight
before the entire forecast area is back above 20 percent. This
slow recovery, combined with the abrupt switch in winds with the
passing cold front, is why the Red Flag Warning end time isn`t
until 4AM Sunday morning. Any fires that may be ongoing into
tonight will have this frontal boundary switching winds from the
WSW to the north...and gusts exceeding 40 MPH will be possible.


During the daytime hours on Sunday...the gusty northerly winds
accompanying this boundary will continue area-wide, especially
through the first half of the day...then gradually tapering off
from north to south through the afternoon. Along with the gusty
winds, this front will usher in colder temperatures, with Sunday
highs 30+ degrees cooler than today...topping out in the upper
50s north to mid-upper 60s south. Normal highs for this time of
year are in the mid-upper 50s. Even with the cooler
temperatures, there will be the potential for at least some
spots of near-critical fire weather conditions through the
afternoon hours.

Monday on...

For the new work week...the forecast remains an overall dry one.
Models show generally zonal upper level flow through the week,
and there is the potential for a few weak shortwave disturbances
to push through the region...so there are a few low-end
precipitation chances in the forecast. At this point, the
chances are confined to the start and end of the week...during
the day on Monday and then again Fri-Sat. Because there are
still some differences between models with moisture availability
and the track/timing of these disturbances, chances remain
around 20 percent. As far as temperatures go, the first half of
the week brings rebounding temperatures, with low-mid 60 Monday
to upper 70s-mid 80s by Wednesday...then back down in the 50s by
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Wow, are we getting into RARE TERRITORY temperature-wise on
  Saturday! Separate CLIMATE section below has more details, but
  not only are Grand Island/Hastings likely to exceed 90 degrees
  in March for the first time on record on Saturday, but could
  also reach the mid-90s the earliest in any year on record by
  at least 2-3 weeks!

- Unless/until we see a legitimate pattern change with at least
  semi-meaningful rain chances (MAYBE some hints of this a few
  days beyond this 7-day forecast a few days either side of
  April 1st?), fire weather will surely remain our paramount
  focus.

- As far as forecast changes go versus our previous overnight-
  issuance, probably the most noticeable/meaningful
  modifications were:

1) Northerly wind gusts associated with the late Sat night-early
Sunday AM were cranked up a good 10+ MPH (and probably not
enough). We are now calling for at least brief peak gusts at
least 40-50 MPH, and raw/higher-res model data suggests at least
near-severe gusts of 55+ MPH could be on the table. Obviously we
not want ANY ACTIVE FIRES igniting prior to this frontal surge!

2) In tandem, wind speeds for Sunday daytime were likely raised
at least 5 MPH from previous forecast, with much of the day now
expected to feature sustained speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts
30-40 MPH.

3) High temps were nudged slightly upward (no more than a few
degrees) for nearly all days except Monday, which actually
trended very slightly cooler than previous.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. March
 27):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
Today is turning out very much as expected, albeit if anything
probably very slightly warmer. Under only varying degrees of
passing high cirrus (mostly sunny skies), high temps are on
track to top out 86-92 degrees across most of our CWA, with
Grand Island/Hastings already breaking date-specific records for
March 20th (and at least making a run toward the March monthly
record of 90).

Aloft in the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short
term model data clearly reveal an anomalous/expansive ridge of
high pressure (500 millibar height around 595 decameters)
spiraling over the Desert Southwest, and it`s influence
obviously extending here well into the central U.S. as we reside
under northwesterly flow between it and a broad eastern U.S.
trough. At the surface, although we are seeing occasional
"sneaky" gusts of 20+ MPH, fortunately for the most part
sustained, mainly northerly to northwesterly winds are
near/below 10 MPH and gusts mainly under 15 MPH...holding
critical fire weather concerns at bay.

- TONIGHT:
As a surface high pressure axis translates through, very light
breezes this evening will become established from more of a
south-southwesterly direction post-midnight. In this very dry
airmass, overnight lows temps have been dropping a little bit
farther than anticipated, so nudged down lows very slightly, but
still very mild for late-March with most areas mid-upper 40s
except some lower 40s mainly far north/west.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-EVENING:
It`s still hard for this forecast to believe, but we are
officially forecasting high temps to reach 92-96 degrees across
the vast majority of our CWA, and it`s quite possible we might
not be aiming quite warm enough. Again, unprecedented territory
for March since our modern-day records began! Unfortunately,
fire weather concerns will be increased compared to today,
thanks to afternoon-evening winds sustained 10-20 MPH with gusts
as high as 25-30 MPH out of the south-southwest. Red Flag
Warning in effect CWA-wide.

- SATURDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY AM:
A powerful cold front comes crashing southward through our CWA,
driven by an upper disturbance passing by to our north, the
frontal passage marked by northerly gusts AT LEAST 40-50 MPH
(and possibly 55+ MPH on at least a brief/localized basis). This
front will enter our far northern CWA shortly after midnight,
and clear our far southern counties around sunrise. With
increasing confidence in these stronger winds, hit them a little
harder in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). The "end time"
of the Red Flag Warning (4 AM Sunday) is admittedly a bit of a
compromise between steadily-rising overnight RH and this frontal
passage, as the front will only be roughly halfway through our
CWA by the current expiration time. Low temps aimed from low-mid
40s northwest to upper 40-low 50s southeast.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Although MUCH COOLER than Saturday, we are still aiming for
above normal high temps ranging from near-60 far north to mid
60s far south. Of greater concern are the moderately-strong
daytime winds, with sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH
much of the day but gradually easing up mid-late afternoon as
surface high pressure noses in from the north. Although we
"technically" aren`t forecasting RH to meet our 20% or lower
critical threshold, many places could drop to around 25% and at
least some consideration might need given to Warning issuance to
account for the winds.

Sunday night, light winds gradually flip around to southerly.
This will likely be the chilliest night of the next week, and
lows were nudged down to 30-36 degrees most places.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Another warm-up gets underway, with highs on Monday similar to
Sunday (mainly low-mid 60s), but then mainly low-mid 70s Tuesday
as upper ridging again strengthens. Precipitation-wise, our
official forecast is still dry, but there are subtle hints that
mainly Monday could feature some spotty rain showers (perhaps a
weak thunderstorm?). Something to keep an eye on but
meaningful/widespread rain unlikely. As southerly winds turn
breezy, we`ll have to watch for at least spotty critical fire
weather conditions (mainly in our extreme west for Monday).

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Broad ridging remains the dominant influence aloft. Our forecast
still remains dry, but especially ECMWF hints at some low
chances for showers/weak convection at least near the fringes of
our CWA, so something to watch. Wednesday currently looks to be
the "peak" of next week`s warm up (highs mainly low-mid 80s but
possibly near-90 far west-southwest), with Thursday then a bit
cooler with highs 60s-70s (will all depend on the speed/strength
of cold frontal passage). Although far too early to be
confident in details, we are technically forecasting some
critical fire weather conditions especially Thursday. Our
official forecast carries some very-low-confidence precip
chances for Thursday night.

- FRIDAY:
A full week out so subject to plenty of inherent uncertainy, but
at least for now this looks like our overall-coolest day of the
next week with highs "only" into the mid 50s most areas.
However, based on latest "raw" and ensemble data, would not be
surprised to see these values trend up in later forecasts
(perhaps more into the 60s than 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and
precipitation-free weather (only varying degrees of high clouds)
through the vast majority of the period, with only the slightest
chance (~ 10%) of a brief/fleeting MVFR ceiling closer to
sunrise Sunday. Certainly the main issue during the period, will
be winds, including a well-defined cold frontal passage with
somewaht-breezy south-southwest winds ahead of it and stronger
north winds behind it...along with a period of moderately-strong
low level wind shear (LLWS) prior to this front`s arrival.

- Wind details:
- Surface winds:
This afternoon, slightly-breezy southwest winds will
prevail...generally sustained 10-15KT/gusts around 20KT. Early
this evening (mainly 00-04Z), speeds will back off a bit (at
least lose gustiness. However, another slight uptick out of the
south-southwest will commence during the 04-08Z time frame ahead
of the front (gusts again up to around 20KT). Finally, right
around 08Z (fairly high confidence in this timing for being 12+
hours out), a strong cold front will barrel in from the north,
with moderately-strong north winds then remaining in place
through the rest of the period. Prevailing sustained speeds will
generally average around 25KT/gusts 35-40KT, but the initial
"frontal surge" could easily feature brief gusts of 45+KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Made little change to previously-introduced LLWS groups,
maintaining 04-08Z timing. During this time, southwesterly winds
within the lowest roughly 1K ft. AGL will accelerate to 40-45KT
(a touch stronger at KGRI than KEAR)..resulting in around 30KT
of shear magnitude between the surface and this level.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for our entire forecast
area, for a combination of very low afternoon and evening RH
with moderately- strong south-southwesterly winds, followed by
increasing RH but even stronger north winds late Saturday night-
early Sunday morning behind a surging cold front. For the
afternoon-evening hours, sustained south-southwest winds will
average 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH, while RH again
bottoms out 5-15% in the presence of record- shattering high
temperatures at least into the low-mid 90s (likely the hottest
temperatures on record during the month of March for most of our
area!). Late Saturday night into early morning (mainly 12-7 AM),
a strong cold front will surge southward through our area,
making any ongoing fires prone to an abrupt switch to northerly
winds with gusts easily 40-50 MPH for at least a few hours
(perhaps higher). Fortunately, RH will recover upward during
this time, with values at least back up to 30-50% by around 4 AM
Sunday and increasing further through mid-morning before falling
again.

- SUNDAY:
Despite most of our area being 30-35 degrees COOLER than
Saturday, afternoon high temps will still be above-normal and
reach the low-mid 60s most areas. At least for now, outright-
critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated due to
afternoon RH bottoming out "only" 25-30 percent across our area,
but moderately-strong north winds will be a concern with
sustained speeds through much of the day 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40
MPH.

- MONDAY:
Afternoon high temperatures are aimed fairly similar to Sunday
(most places low-mid 60s), but winds will flip around to out of
the south- southeast and should not be AS strong as Sunday`s
speeds, with sustained speeds mainly 10-20 MPH/gusts mainly
15-25 MPH. Minimum afternoon RH is currently forecast to hold up
20-25% most areas, but a few of our far western counties (mainly
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could drop more so 15-20% and technically
meet critical thresholds during the afternoon.

- TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
Obviously the "finer details" regarding fire weather get
increasingly uncertain as we get out this far in time. However,
at least near-critical conditions appear likely in at least
portions of our area each afternoon, with Thursday of overall-
greatest concern for perhaps some outright-critical conditions.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
  overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
  of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE CALENDAR
 YEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TODAY **

An incredible (even historic for March) stretch of heat
continues through today, with both Grand Island/Hastings
airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we
issue official Record Event Reports/RERs) likely to experience
on Saturday the HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MARCH! In addition, we MIGHT even break records for
earliest-annual occurrence of 91+ degrees by AT LEAST 2 WEEKS!
Various details follow, organized by site:

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988         | 97

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 16, 2015
91 degrees......91 on April 4, 1929
92 degrees......92 on April 12, 2022
93-94 degrees...94 on April 15, 2002
95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902
99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013
100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013



-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910         | 96

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 23, 1910
91-92 degrees...92 on April 3, 1929
93-95 degrees...95 on April 15, 2002
96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989
97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916
99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion