82°F
Updated:
6/15/2026
3:44:48pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
192 FXUS63 KOAX 151901 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for today, with spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two possible after 10 PM. - Our next notable chance for any thunderstorms appears to be on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. - Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Today and Tomorrow: Broad troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is evident in afternoon water vapor imagery, with ridging continuing to hold over the Pacific Coast. A ridge of high surface pressure rules over our weather today, with westerly winds and dry weather making for a beautiful day to be outside. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s, with only a few gusts to 20-25 mph expected this afternoon, primarily across northeast Nebraska. A frontal system is inbound for the late evening/overnight hours, that will really struggle to amount to much more than a sprinkle or two across far northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa thanks to measly instability and moisture as it passes. Tomorrow will see temperatures increase, with southwesterly to westerly winds developing during the morning hours as a warm front takes shape to the west. Strong warm air advection and lift near the front itself will try to spur on some afternoon showers and a stray rumble of thunder, but chances for any meaningful, widespread rainfall remain low. Wednesday and Beyond: Wednesday continues to be of concern on a few fronts: the heat, storm chances, and potential fire danger across northeast Nebraska. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the peak of heat over the next 7 days, with the edge of it being taken off by the passage of a front that helps scour out moisture and increase winds locally. Those winds are expected to gust to 35-45 mph, with humidity values being low enough to drive very high to potentially extreme fire danger across northeast Nebraska during the afternoon hours. That passing front will also help drive shower/storm chances to the northeast, and later in the afternoon to the southeast. The timing of the front will make it difficult for any severe threat to linger very long during the afternoon hours before it slips to the southeast of the area. It appears that the storms that do from will quickly grow upscale, muting the upwards potential for hazards while still keeping everything on the board before they move out. Winds will take a bit to calm down but once they do, a beautiful day in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees will carry us into the end of the week. Highs do trend upwards Friday/Saturday, with a more summer-like feel to the day-to-day forecast -- including increasing potential for late evening/overnight storms plowing eastward from the High Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with westerly winds starting to gusts to 20 kts near KOFK, with speeds of 15-20 kts anticipated at KOMA/KLNK later this afternoon. Winds will once again slow tonight, shifting southwesterly before increasing in speed out of the northwest before sunrise tomorrow as a wind shift passes through. Short- term models suggest that we may have some light rain chances (20%) pass through with or shortly behind the wind shift, but they will remain out of the TAFs until confidence increases. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
229 FXUS63 KGID 151732 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Largely dry Mon-Fri work week. - Seasonal temperatures either side of normal (tad cooler, tad warmer, tad cooler) with a comfortable airmass thanks to lower dewpoints (though likely a bit higher late Tuesday/early Wednesday) - Honestly, the next shot for decent showers/storms comes next weekend, possibly late Friday night, but more likely Satudray night, and it may include the for strong to severe storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 The early morning weather map depicted surface high pressure near Scottsbluff Nebraska and ridging its way southeast into northern Kansas. Skies were clear or mostly clear with some mid clouds still streaming in from northeast Colorado and across southwest Nebraska. A weak upper short wave was moving southeast into western Iowa and spreading weak subsidence into south central Nebraska. Temperatures are cool again this morning, ranging from 50 to 60 degrees. As the key messages mention, the Monday-Friday work is "mostly" dry. The exception is tonight when another upper shortwave, with a bit more "umph" and a weak front slides southeast across the region. A weak south/southwest low level jet (LLJ) forms ahead of the surface front with some low end MuCape and CAMS models suggesting at least non-zero chance for isolated showers or even a rumble of thunder after 10 PM. The forecast reflects this with a 15-25% type rain chance. This seems most likely to occur southeast of Hastings. Rain amounts will be minimal, such as trace to a few hundredths, and very sparse overall. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, and Tuesday will be a particularly nice day. The late Monday night front will shift winds to the north Tuesday morning, but winds will quickly return to the south by evening...ahead of the next front set to push through the area Wednesday morning. Though the front is stronger and it will pull more moisture back into the region late Tuesday night, warming in the mid-levels will act as a cap, and force development of thunderstorms well east of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Look for a much warmer night Tuesday night (lows in the 60s) and a quick warmup Wednesday as fairly strong west/northwest winds mix the lower atmosphere. However, we have lowered temperatures a touch (still above 90 many areas) with the idea that there is decent cold advection as early as late morning and lasting through the afternoon/evening. High temperatures Wednesday may well go lower by a few degrees with subsequent forecasts. Winds are probably underdone for Wednesday afternoon giving the strong downward momentum transfer and even "old-timer" numerical guidance suggesting 30-35 mph wind gusts are possible, if not likely. After the midweek cold front passes, temperatures dip back to slightly below normal Thursday with sunshine, comfortable dewpoints and a north breeze. Friday will be dry but becomes a transition day as southernly winds return, low-level moisture slowly increases and and temperatures sneak up into the middle and upper 80s. On Friday night, there are early signs LLJ will form and start to push more unstable air north overnight which may result in some overnight thunderstorms. This scenario seems more likely Saturday night as a strong southerly flow sets up across Central Plains thanks to surface low pressure and a shortwave moving east across the Dakotas. Precipitation chances look pretty good at this point, centered mostly on Saturday night night, keeping in mind this has been a trend in the models for at last a few days. If this timing holds, another front would push across the area on Fathers Day continuing the rain chance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 There will be a few opportunities for sprinkles or light rain showers this week, but widespread or "meaningful" rain is not expected. The 12Z global ensembles show a 60-90% chance for less than 0.10" of total rainfall through Friday. The first opportunity for sprinkles will be tonight into Monday morning, followed by another opportunity for spotty showers and weak t-storms Monday night. Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek (90s to low 100s on Wed). That said, humidity remains quite low through Wednesday, so heat index values should remain below 100 degrees for the entire area. A shortwave will move through the region on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain/t-storms should remain to our east. This shortwave will bump temperatures down a bit for Thursday, but near to above- normal temperatures return for the weekend. Ensembles continue to advertise reasonably high chances for rain/t-storms returning next weekend (June 20-21st) as a shortwave moves through the central/northern Plains. Of course, details remain pretty uncertain at this time range, this could feature at least some severe weather. The 00Z CSU-MLP severe probs have a 5% contour across much of the region on Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected to prevail. Westerly winds will persist throughout the day today at both terminals. Winds overnight will become lighter and more southwesterly. During the overnight hours and into the morning Tuesday, wind will be light and variable. There is a chance for thunderstorms south and east of the terminals, the terminals are expected to be dry with no thunderstorm impacts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Moritz DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Billings Wright
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