Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

297
FXUS63 KOAX 072331
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today with high fire danger for parts of
  northeast Nebraska.

- Rain chances increase tonight through Saturday night. The
  highest chance of precipitation, 60 to 90%, for northeast
  Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Light snow may mix in
  Saturday evening, but no impacts are expected.

- Significantly colder temperatures are to be expected on Sunday
  and Monday. Morning temperatures in the teens and low 20s with
  afternoon highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s are anticipated.
  Wind chills may be as low as the single digits during the
  morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous
forecasts with only minor adjustments being made. This afternoon
will be the last of the warm weather for the time-being with sunny
skies pushing temperatures into the 60s. A breezy northwest wind is
resulting in high fire danger for parts of northeast Nebraska
though. A leading shortwave trough passed through the region this
morning. While little impact was felt for our region today, this
system is pushing colder air closer to our area into portions of
South Dakota and Minnesota ahead of tomorrow`s system.

Precipitation chances begin to increase tonight as our next shortwave
trough begins to influence the region. Rain chances begin across
northeast Nebraska before spreading southeast through the morning
hours. This activity remains primarily rain, but a few snow flakes
could briefly mix in around sunrise near the South Dakota border.
Otherwise, a cold rain will start the day. A low pressure system
takes shape south of the I-80 corridor during the morning and
afternoon. This low pressure is expected to further support rain
with the highest chance, 60 to 90%, expected across northeast
Nebraska and west-central Iowa. The areas that receive the most
rainfall and cloud cover may struggle to get out of the lower 40s as
a result through Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, slightly drier
conditions and perhaps a peak of sun pushes temperatures into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

By Saturday evening, the low pressure will be kicked off to the east
as a trailing shortwave trough begins to swing across the area. This
causes temperatures to plunge, especially after sunset. Light snow
will begin to mix in shortly after sunset across portions of
northeast Nebraska. As we head into the late evening, light snow may
begin to overspread the Omaha Metro and I-80 corridor. Southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa may see a few snow flakes after
midnight. While wintry precipitation is expected, overall amounts
should remain low. As the colder airmass overspreads the area, so to
will a drier airmass. This will greatly limit the amount of
precipitation and coupled with warm ground temperatures, little to
no impacts are expected at this time.

By Sunday morning, the area will have dried out, but the cold will
set in. A gusty northwest wind with morning temperatures in the
upper teens and lower 20s will make it feel like the single digits
at times. Temperatures struggle to climb into the 30s during the
afternoon. The gusty winds subside by Sunday night, but this does
little to help with the cold. Clear skies and light winds by Monday
morning result in excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures start
out mainly in the teens to near 20 with wind chills in the single
digits once again. Continued sunshine through the afternoon aids in
pushing high temperatures back into the 40s on Monday.

After Monday, an amplified blocking pattern takes shape. A
pronounced mid-level ridge over the Great Plains pushes our
temperatures back above normal by Tuesday. Upper 50s and lower 60s
with plenty of sun and dry weather can be anticipated each afternoon
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions start out the TAF period this evening, with winds
slowly shifting northerly, then shifting easterly overnight.
In addition to the shifting winds, a weather system will be
moving in tomorrow morning by 12z, affecting KOFK and KOMA while
missing KLNK. MVFR to IFR conditions will accompany most of the
showers that move through with the rain, with a few flakes
possibly mixing in with the rain (30% chance). Another round of
rain showers will try to swing through the area during the mid-
afternoon hours, bringing sporadic rain and brief bouts of MVFR
ceilings as clouds go from SCT to BKN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

273
FXUS63 KGID 072348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
548 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will move through tonight and bring big
  changes for the weekend - including strong NW wind gusts 35-45
  MPH, elevated fire weather, and much colder temperatures. Wind
  chills in the single digits to mid teens likely Sunday AM!

- After bottoming out in the lower teens Monday AM, unseasonably
  warm temperatures return Tuesday and continue much of next
  week. Several days of highs in the 60s (at least) are expected.

- Light rain showers may clip NE portions of the forecast area
  late tonight into Saturday AM, and additional sprinkles and/or
  flurries will be possible Saturday evening/night. Otherwise,
  dry conditions likely for the next 7+ days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

It`s turned into a pretty nice, albeit a bit breezy, end to the
work week with mostly sunny skies helping temperatures rise into
the 60s to near 70 area wide. Pleasant conditions will continue
into/through the evening as winds decrease around sunset and
high clouds increase from the west.

A strong cold front remains on track to slice through the region
tonight - generally in the 09Z to 13Z time frame. A sfc low
pressure center, attendant to the cold front and associated
upper disturbance, will track right over the CWA from NW to SE.
To the N/NE of the low, areas of light rain showers/sprinkles
will be possible. Greatest chances for our area will be along
and NE of a line from Greeley to York. Not expecting much for
amounts ourselves, but not too far to the N & NE of the area
could get some decent rain and even some accumulating snowfall.
The main story for the daytime hours Saturday will be the strong
NWrly winds gusting 35-45 MPH, and perhaps even around 50 MPH
in the Ord, NE area. Some sun will help take the edge off the
wind a little bit, and highs should manage to make it into the
50s.

A reinforcing shot of (even) cold(er) air will surge southward
Sat eve/night, and this will be the real slap in the face to our
recent warm/mild conditions. In fact, temperatures plummeting
into the teens combined with continued blustery N winds will
drive wind chill values into the single digits to mid teens by
Sunday morning! The strong cold air advection Sat eve could
easily squeeze out some sprinkles and/or flurries per recent
simulated reflectivity progs and associated forecast soundings.
Have expanded this mention later into the evening and further S.
Shouldn`t be heavy enough to amount to any accumulations (rain
or snow), just know there could be some light precipitation in
the blustery N winds and falling temps Sat eve/night.

Surface high pressure will gradually build into the region on
Sunday and allow for decreasing winds. Latest deterministic EC
remains consistent in building the core of a nearly 1040mb high
pressure center into the local area Sunday night into Monday AM,
which would really allow for temps to tank to coldest levels of
the season. Latest forecast blend calls for widespread lows in
the teens, but latest CONSMOS and NBM 10-25th percentile
suggests some single digits can`t be ruled out from around
Lexington to Ord. Far cry from the 60s we have now!

Fortunately, the sharp cold spell is going to be a brief one as
upper ridging and unseasonably warm temperatures return in
earnest on Tuesday and persist through the end of the week.
Despite the calendar showing the middle of November, it`s
looking increasingly likely we`ll be able to squeeze out
multiple days with highs in the 60s, perhaps even 70s in spots,
Tuesday through at least Friday of next week. Pattern MAY turn a
bit cooler (though may still be mild) and more active towards
days 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period. Light and variable
winds will increase early Saturday morning as a cold front
approaches the TAF sites (10-12z). Wind steadily increase and
become northwesterly behind the front (mid-late morning hours).
The strongest winds will occur during the afternoon, with
sustained winds around 25kts with gusts around 35kts. Winds
begin to decrease near the end of the TAF period.

SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds are expected ahead of the cold
frontal passage. Along and just behind the cold frontal passage,
some MVFR stratus is possible, which could briefly drop
conditions to MVFR. At this time, the best chances look to
remain northeast of KGRI/KEAR, so kept the mention to FEW-SCT.
During the mid-late afternoon, low VFR stratus moves into KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion