Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

709
FXUS63 KOAX 292026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
226 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds subside this evening.

- Cold tonight with lows in the teens. Wind chills values in the
  single digits to low teens are forecast for early Tuesday
  morning.

- Dry conditions continue for the extended forecast period. Warm
  up expected by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday with most
  seeing temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

19z RAP objective analysis shows the strong 510dam closed low over
the far eastern Great Lakes. The sfc feature which brought the
strong northwest winds and banded snowfall yesterday has now pushed
well off to the east too, leaving behind a 1034 mb sfc high sitting
over much of the Dakotas into Nebraska. Aside from a few scattered
cumulus along our far eastern border, lots of sunshine is observed
over the forecast area.

Breezy winds continue for much of the forecast area this afternoon.
The KOAX 18z RAOB shows a shallow mixed layer tapping into a
lingering 25-30 kt low level jet above H9. The breeziness coupled
with the cold air mass in place is resulting in wind chills ranging
from the single digits to low teens for much of OAX despite forecast
highs warming to the upper teens to mid 20s.

The good news is that the lingering breeziness should subside by the
evening hours as mixing ceases and the sfc high moves right over
top. Clear skies continue into the overnight hours with lows
dropping to the low to mid teens. Although winds will be
noticeably lighter overnight, wind chills won`t improve much as
most see values in the single digits to low teens by early
Tuesday morning.

The cold spell will be relatively short lived as a warmer air
mass at H8 advects into the Northern Plains for Tuesday. Highs
are progged to reach the upper 30s in far western Iowa to low to
mid 40s for much of eastern Nebraska. A weak wave at H5 sneaks
through on Tuesday, but with the bulk of the synoptic scale
forcing and limited moisture transport located well to our east,
not really expecting much from this feature other than an
increase in mid to high level cloudiness. A few CAM members show
weak echoes clipping far northeast Nebraska during the day, but
forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest a deep layer of dry air will
limit the potential. Lows are forecast to be in the mid to upper
20s.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The H5 western CONUS ridge will stick around for a few days, leaving
the area in northwesterly flow. A stronger wave ejects southeast
from Manitoba toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday, fusing with the
strong H5 closed low mentioned earlier. A cold front emanating
from the sfc feature will push through much of the Northern
Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Similar to Tuesday,
deterministic guidance develops precip along and behind that
front, but well off to our east. Have kept latest NBM extended
solution which indicates dry conditions. Highs Wednesday warm to
the upper 30s in far western Iowa to around 51F over our far
southwest counties.

Cooler temperatures return for Thursday with most areas seeing highs
in the 30s to near 40F. Dry conditions are forecast as sfc high
pressure sits over the area. The H5 ridge dampens slightly Thursday
while a wave ejects on the eastern periphery of the ridge near the
Rockies. The wave and sfc feature tracks well to our south though on
Friday as sfc high pressure once again builds into the Northern
Plains with most seeing similar highs to Thursday. Ridging will
ensue once again for the weekend, moving into much of the central
CONUS. As such, 1000-500 mb thicknesses increase implying warmer air
moving into the area. Forecast highs warm to the 40s Saturday and
potentially the low to mid 50s Sunday over our far west.

While still several days out, a weak wave may ride on top of
the ridge into the Dakotas and Nebraska Sunday generating some
light QPF. Obviously lots of uncertainty still given we`re
several days out, but for now, have kept dry solution with NBM
having sub-15% PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals late this morning
and will continue for the remainder of the TAF cycle. Lingering
few to scattered low clouds around 1,500 to 2,000 ft near and
east of KOMA will dissipate this afternoon. Northwest winds
remain gusty at 25 to 35 kts but should eventually subside after
22z, becoming west southwesterly late tonight into tomorrow
morning and under 12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

489
FXUS63 KGID 291741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1141 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chill values as low as ten to near twenty degrees below
  zero to start the day. Modest improvement this afternoon, but
  a cool (highs in the 20s/low 30s) and breezy (NW winds 15 to
  25 MPH) start to the week.

- Generally warm (40s/50s) temperatures expected for the
  remainder of the period with a brief dip in temperatures to
  near seasonable values (30s/40s) Thursday afternoon behind a
  back door cold front.

- No precipitation is expected through at least next Monday (and
  likely continuing through much of next week).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

A cold and breezy start to the day across the region with
temperatures in the single digits and teens along with
widespread wind chill values below zero. Some locations north of
I-80 could see wind chills fall to near 20 degrees below zero
around daybreak, with gradual improvement expected by late
morning/early afternoon.

While a few clouds can be seen on satellite across north central
Nebraska early this morning, this cloud cover should mostly
erode by mid-morning as an area of surface high pressure slides
south across the region. This area of high pressure will help to
relax winds across the area by afternoon, with light and
variable winds returning this evening.

As winds shift and become predominantly westerly overnight
tonight, expect a more mild start to the day on Tuesday along
with a return to above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon.

Overall, a mild and dry period is in store for the local area
through at least the upcoming weekend with the one exception
coming Thursday afternoon when a backdoor cold front is
expected to dip temperatures back down closer to normal and
bring some increased cloud cover for the latter part of the
week. That said, no precipitation appears to be in sight with
long range models/ensembles not having much of a precip signal
until the middle of the following week (7th and beyond), and
even these chances look fairly sporadic amongst the different
ensemble members.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Following this morning`s cold frontal passage and quick burst of
snow, we can now observe clouds clearing out for the afternoon.
Temperatures this evening and tonight, despite the clearing skies,
will only continue to tumble as those strong northerly winds
continue to pelt the area. Winds this afternoon have already
surpassed their peak values (45-55MPH) and are gradually on
their way back down, though gusty winds are expected to continue
through the rest of the day/night. Occasional gusts overnight
may still reach as high as 25-35MPH.

These gusty north to northwest winds will continue to suck down
colder air through the first half of Monday. Temperatures, as result,
will drop to as low as the single digit to low teens with wind chill
values falling as low as 0 to -15 degrees overnight tonight. The
coldest temperatures and wind chills will generally be concentrated
towards northward lying locations (-10 to -15 degrees for locations
north of I-80)

Rising pressure on Monday will mark the stabilization and in turn
lightening of the surface wind field. Though winds will continue to
keep their northwesterly direction, speeds will diminish through the
day, eventually calming in the evening. Despite clear skies,
temperatures will only be able to return to similar values in
comparison to the start of the day today (mid 20s to mid 30s). Lows
overnight will fall back to the low teens, though light/calm winds
overnight will keep windchill values greater than 0 degrees.

Dry conditions continue to dominate the forecast the rest of the
week as we soon find ourselves trapped underneath northwest flow
established from western U.S. ridging and eastern U.S. troughing. A
mini-warm up will more than likely take place Tuesday and Wednesday
as light winds, influenced from the weak pressure gradient, turn
westerly. This will close off the cold air advection pattern and
will open up a warming downslope one. Highs may reach the mid 40s to
low 50s Tuesday and the upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday.

Following this brief warmup, a fairly weak New Years Day cold front
may drop highs down 10-15 degrees again (mid 30s to upper 40s).
There still remains some uncertainty on how much temperatures could
fall this day (15 degree temperature spread between the NBM 25th and
75th percentile). Looking at cluster analysis, it is more apparent
why this spread appears. The two leading clusters diverge on both
the cloud coverage and the strength of a Central U.S. ridging
pattern. The leading cluster (greater weight from the GEFS and
ENS) favors a stronger ridging pattern with greater cloud
coverage. This leading cluster also more likely resembles our
current forecast. Cluster two (GEPS weighted), the alternative
scenario, suggest a weaker ridging pattern with less cloud
coverage and warmer temperatures.

Either way, steady southerly winds establishing Friday should help
warm highs back to the 40s/50s to end the week off. The rest of the
forecast remains dry for now. The next shortwave disturbance may not
even reach the area until at least next Sunday or Monday, keeping
the pattern aloft fairly stagnant.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through the period with little to no cloud
cover. Breezy NNW winds now will weaken through the afternoon
and become light and variable this evening thanks to a surface
high moving overhead. Winds will turn SW to W on the backside of
the departing high tonight and continue into Tuesday AM,
generally around 6-9 kt. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion