Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

497
FXUS63 KOAX 260442
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1142 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected Thursday, with
  southwest winds becoming northwesterly to northerly and
  gusting 35 to 45 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued near
  the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through the
  weekend and will be particularly high on Saturday.

- Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s. 60s return Saturday,
  followed by 70s and 80s into early next week.

- Precipitation chances will increase by the early to middle
  part of next week, with a 40-60% chance by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this evening as we remained on
the eastern periphery of upper level ridging. A surface
front/wind shift passed through the area today and will push
back northward overnight with strengthening southerly flow and
increasing warm air/moisture advection through Thursday morning.
This will be ahead of a cold front currently over WY/MT and the
Dakotas that will crash south through the area by mid-
afternoon. This will lead to a tricky high temperature and
RH/wind with some fairly large implications on fire weather.
Currently, temperatures near and south of I-80 are favored to
top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s prior to the front moving
through, while areas to the north will see cold air start to
spill in earlier and temperatures topping out in the 60s to mid
70s falling through the afternoon. RH also looks to drop toward
the mid 20s in southeast NE. Regarding winds, expect 25-30 mph
gusts out of the southwest ahead of the front, followed by a
little bit of a lull near the front, and then a punch of 35-40
mph gusts out of the northwest to north behind the front, with
model soundings showing 40+ kts in the mixed layer. Regarding
Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning, the lowest RH does not look
to overlap with the strongest winds for very long, if at all,
but the potential for 40 mph gusts behind the front into the
evening, plus just the wind shift in general do yield fire
weather concerns, so elected to convert most of the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning and extend the time through 10 PM.

Otherwise, CAMs do show light returns along and behind the cold
front as it passes through on Thursday, though model soundings
show very dry air to overcome, so not expecting much more than
sprinkles through the afternoon. Another bit of shortwave energy
then looks to slide through overnight with CAMs once again
suggesting some light radar returns, though the dry air will
still very much be in place, so again, not expecting any
meaningful precipitation.

Dry and cool northerly winds will persist on Friday, with highs
in the lower to mid 50s (pretty close to average for this time
of year). Gusts of 20-30 mph combined with RH values in the
teens to lower 20s will lead to another day of increased fire
danger, though winds don`t look to quite reach Red Flag criteria
at this point as surface high pressure moves in and the
gradient relaxes. However, that high will push off to our
southeast by early Saturday morning with a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of surface low pressure east of the Rockies
leading to strong southerly flow returning to the area. EPS mean
wind gusts are in the 30-40 mph range with RH looking to fall
into the teens area-wide while temperatures climb into the 60s.
As a result, expect widespread very high to extreme fire danger,
and we`ll very likely need a Fire Weather Watch and eventually
a Red Flag Warning for most of, if not the entire area.

The southerly flow will continue into Sunday with temperatures
climbing back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Increased fire
danger will persist, though with the surface low edging
eastward, the pressure gradient will relax a bit, so winds are
looking to be more in the 20-25 mph range.

The warmer weather should stick around into at least the early
part of next week, though a pattern shift looks to be on the
table with some increased precipitation chances as the upper
level ridge axis passes to our east leaving us under
southwesterly flow aloft. The first chances arrive Monday as the
surface low ejects eastward. However, with the dry air still in
place, this shouldn`t amount to much, with chances in the
20-40% range. By Tuesday night, another shortwave and associated
surface low look to pass through the region, dragging another
cold front through the area with additional rain chances. By
Wednesday/Thursday, guidance is in decent agreement showing a
stronger system with more widespread and heavier precipitation
somewhere in the central portion of the country, though still
quite a few differences on timing and track. Right now, chances
for us sit in the 40-60% range. It also appears at least part of
the area could be cold enough for some snow if that system
tracks through the area, though still a lot of time to figure
out details on that one.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Low-level wind shear will work into all three terminals
overnight as 45 kt southwesterly winds move in at FL015 before
diminishing by 26/13-14Z.

Calm southwesterly winds will prevail overnight before a cold front
pushes southward across the area Thursday morning. Winds will
quickly veer to northerly and increase in speed behind the front.
Wind gusts are expected to increase into the 25-33 kt range through
the remainder of the period. Mid-level cloud cover will also
increase behind the front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
     NEZ088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

838
FXUS63 KGID 260520
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather continues to be the primary forecast concern.
  Each day has potential for at least near-critical fire weather
  conditions.

- A cold front will bring in gusty northwest winds for Thursday.

- A few sprinkles are possible during the day on Thursday, and
  there is a low chance for light rain Thursday night. Most
  locations will not see anything measurable.

- Near-normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday, but another
  round of impressive warmth returns for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

This afternoon, deep mixing in the west-northwesterly surface
flow has resulted in another day of record-breaking high
temperatures. Many areas will top 90 degrees by late afternoon.

Winds should fall of pretty quickly this evening before turning
back to the south. Steady south wind will keep overnight
temperatures well above normal as well. In fact, our Thursday
morning temperatures (50s to near 60) are very close to our
normal HIGH temperatures for late March.

The cold front for Thursday has trended a touch slower, which
means that southeastern areas could make a run into the 80s and
possibly near 90 before the front moves through. This also
heightens the fire weather threat, and therefore a Fire Weather
Watch was issued for southeastern parts of the area. The front
is expected to move through between 9am in the north and 3pm in
far southern portions of the area. Behind the front, stiff
north winds will increase, with gusts likely around 40 MPH.

Some sprinkles are possible near and behind the front during
the day Thursday, but the chance for anything measurable is very
low. A few additional showers are possible as the upper level
trough moves through Thursday night into Friday morning, but
most locations will likely miss out on this as well. More
widespread rain chances will remain well to our south with the
cold front.

North winds will decrease a bit on Friday, but will still remain
somewhat breezy, especially in the morning. Friday high
temperatures are expected to be in the 50s...which is actually just
a few degrees below climatological normals.

The pattern flips back to warm this weekend and into the early
part of next week. Breezy south winds return on Saturday, aiding
temperatures back into the 60s, and widespread 80s are expected
Sunday through Tuesday. The next meaningful chance for rain
will be Tuesday into Wednesday (March 31 into April 1).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Steady south winds with Marginal LLWS will continue for the next
couple of hours as the VWP is indicating 40-45 KTS of wind about
1 KFT off the surface as of 26/05Z. This WS will diminish
towards daybreak as winds relax ahead of a cold front that
should reach the terminals around 26/15Z or so. Very strong
north winds can be expected behind this front...with gusts to
around 35KTS possible into the early evening hours...with
surface winds likely remaining elevated through the overnight
hours near 20 KTS Thursday night. While there will be some
passing high clouds through the period, could see some BKN mid
level CIGS near 8 KFT spread across the area aft 27/02Z with a
very small chance of a light shower or sprinkle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Rest of Today:
Deep mixing will continue to result in at least periodic gusts
to near 25 MPH through early evening. Record warmth has resulted
in humidity near 10% in many areas. The Red Flag Warning
remains in effect until 8pm.

Thursday:
As mentioned above, the front has trended slower, which will
allow southeastern areas to warm into the 80s, with humidity
briefly near 20% ahead of the front. The frontal passage will
result in rising RH values, but increasing gusts will keep the
fire danger relatively high through the afternoon hours. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for areas southeast of a line from
Phillipsburg to Hastings to Geneva.

Friday:
Overall, the fire weather threat for Friday is lower than
previous days (but not zero, either). North winds will be on a
decreasing trend, but some gusts near 25-30 mph remain possible
(especially late morning and early afternoon). The post-frontal
airmass will be noticably cooler...but also quite dry. Despite
high temperatures only in the 50s, humidity is expected to dip
to 15-20% across the entire area.

Saturday:
Critical conditions are currently forecast for nearly the entire
area on Saturday. Winds return to the south, gusting 30-40 MPH
in the afternoon. It will not be excessively warm, but
temperatures should reach the 60s, which will drive humidity
down into the 15-20% range.

Sunday-Tuesday:
Well-above normal temperatures (80s) return for Sunday through
Tuesday. Increasing low-level moisture may help prevent
widespread fire weather issues, but at least near-critical fire
weather conditions are possible each day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ084>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion