Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

657
FXUS63 KOAX 271048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through the
  weekend and will be particularly high on Saturday.

- Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s. 60s return Saturday,
  followed by 70s and 80s into early next week.

- Precipitation chances will increase by the early to middle
  part of next week, with a 40-60% chance by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Cooler and still pretty breezy as of 11 PM with north winds
gusting 25-35 mph helping temperatures to fall into the lower
30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Those winds will
continue to gradually weaken into early Friday morning, but will
come back up a bit by mid to late morning through the
afternoon. Model soundings don`t show particularly strong winds
in the mixed layer (20-25 kts), though we don`t have to mix much
deeper to hit some 30 kt winds. So as it stands, expect most
gusts to remain under 30 mph, though could creep above that in a
few spots at times (20-40% chance). The northerly flow will
also continue to bring dry air to the area, with afternoon RH
falling into the 15-25% range, so a Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for most of the area.

Winds will quickly diminish Friday evening as a surface high
moves in. This will lead to a cool night with lows in the mid to
upper 20s area-wide. The light winds will be short-lived,
however, as the high moves to our southeast by Saturday morning
and the pressure gradient tightens ahead of surface low pressure
east of the Rockies. As a result, southerly to southwesterly
winds will pick up quickly with EPS mean gusts at or above 40
mph for nearly the entire area. While the southerly flow will
bring in a little moisture, with how dry we will be ahead of
time combined with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid
60s, RH values will dip into the teens area-wide. Therefore,
expect widespread extreme fire danger and a Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for the entire area.

Southerly flow will remain in place on Sunday, albeit weaker
(15-25 mph gusts) as the surface low edges eastward the the
gradient relaxes. Still, this will allow temperatures to climb
further, topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. We`ll also
remain fairly dry with RH in the 20s, but given the lighter
winds, fire weather won`t be as big of a concern, though still
expect high to very high rangeland fire danger. Warm weather
looks to stick around through Tuesday with highs staying in the
80s.

We then start to see a bit of a pattern shift for the remainder
of next week as upper level ridging breaks down/shifts eastward
and we get more of a southwesterly flow regime over the area.
Still lots of details to work out, but we`ll have a few frontal
passages and/or a front stalling in/near the area with various
bits of shortwave energy sliding through and potentially
bringing precipitation chances. The first ones look to arrive
Tuesday as a cold front crashes through the area (20-40%
chance), though most guidance keeps anything with this front
fairly light for us. Higher chances should start to arrive
toward the middle to later part of the week as stronger systems
and possibly a larger scale trough push through. However, still
lots of differences on timing and tracks, so overall forecast
confidence beyond Wednesday is rather low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals this morning and
will persist for the duration of the TAF period with little to
no cloudiness. Model guidance suggests the potential for an
MVFR cloud deck in southeast South Dakota clipping KOFK within
the next hour or two, but at only a 10 to 20% chance so have
left out of TAF. Gusty 20 to 25 kt north-northwest winds will
affect terminals after 14z, largely subsiding to under 12 kts by
00z. Winds also turn clockwise to the east southeast for the
rest of the night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ015-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/Petersen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

799
FXUS63 KGID 271326
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
826 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for noon-8pm today for
  areas near/east of Highway 281. North winds gust to near 30
  mph at times through the afternoon.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions return Saturday.
  Strong south winds gusting up to 45 MPH will be combined with
  very low humidity. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
  entire area.

- Temperatures rebound back into upper 70s and 80s Sunday
  through Tuesday. A cold front will then drop highs back to the
  50s to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday.

- Dry conditions are expected to continue through Monday. The
  next notable precipitation chances (40-50%) return Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Temperatures behind the front today will take a notable dip with
highs expected to top off in the 50s to low 60s this afternoon.
Northerly winds this morning and early this afternoon will blow
between 15-20MPH with gusts as high as 25-35MPH. These winds will
slowly taper off across the later afternoon hours as rising pressure
gradually weakens the surface pressure gradient. Drier conditions
behind the front with the gusty afternoon winds will promote
widespread near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across
the area. The best potential for critical fire weather conditions
will be for areas near and east of HWY-281 (where the gustiest winds
should lie). A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon until
9PM for counties along and east of HWY-281. Please refer to the
fire weather section below for more information.

Wind directions will gradually flip to the south across the Friday
evening/night period as an around 1036mb surface high pressure
center shifts eastward and across the Central/Northern Plains. An
upstream Northern Plains low-level trough/disturbance will once again
stir up even gustier conditions for Saturday. The southerly winds
will blow between 25-35MPH with gusts as high as 40-50MPH across
much of the day Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
the entire area. Please refer to the fire weather section below
for more information.

Beyond the gusty winds today and Saturday, temperatures will also
rebound this weekend as southerly warm air advecting winds return
combined with the diurnal warming from mostly clear skies.
Temperatures are expected to range the 60s to low 70s Saturday and
the upper 70s and 80s Sunday. No precipitation is expected across
the weekend as a semi-zonal to  weak ridging pattern aloft should
continue to bat away any real precipitation potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Gusty north-northeast winds continue through the rest of today,
only slowly decreasing tonight. Gusts near 45 MPH remain
possible through the afternoon hours. Sprinkles are possible
tonight, but no measurable precip is expected and most areas
will miss out completely.

On Friday, north winds will continue to decrease...generally
from west to east. The post-frontal airmass will result in high
temperatures only in the 50s.

This cooldown will not last for long, though. Strong south winds
return to the south for Saturday, which will push temperatures
back into the 60s to near 70 degrees (warmest west).

Winds back off a bit on Sunday-Monday, but temperatures are
once again expected to reach the 80s underneath a large-scale
upper level ridge. A shortwave then approaches from the west,
bringing the next chance for rain to the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. That said, coverage of rain remains fairly spotty on
global models.

Additional shortwaves will bring continued precip chances for
the middle to end of next week. We remain cautiously optimistic
that this pattern change could result in some beneficial
moisture for the area, but latest long-term ensembles are
trending a bit drier than previous runs for the first couple
weeks of April.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is high confidence of VFR conditions retaining across the
next 24 hours. Only a few mainly high-level clouds will be
observed. Northerly winds this morning will quickly ramp up to
near 15kts with gusts hanging around 20-25kts from much of the
morning to early afternoon hours. Rising pressure later this
afternoon will quickly help winds weaken, becoming light and
variable by this evening. Winds this evening and overnight will
turn from the north to the south. No precipitation is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 822 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

An increasingly dry airmass will continue to advect into the area
today. Despite temperatures only in the 50s, the entire area will see
humidity below 15 percent this afternoon. North winds will gradually
decrease from west to east, but areas near and east of Highway 281
are expected to see periods of critical fire weather conditions
through the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8pm.

Strong south winds return tonight into Saturday. The continued
mixing will limit humidity recovery, with many areas likely to see
humidity remain below 40% through sunrise Saturday.

Sustained winds 20-30 with gusts to 45 mph are expected through the
day Saturday. Humidity will remain very low...with most areas
dropping down to the 10-15% range. Confidence is high in widespread
critical fire danger, and a Red Flag Warning is now in effect.

The fire weather threat decreases a bit with lighter winds
Sunday/Monday...but unseasonable warmth will still promote elevated
to near critical fire conditions.

A frontal passage on Tuesday may result in another round of critical
fire weather conditions for at least parts of the area.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels/Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion