Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

014
FXUS63 KOAX 101721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Powerful northwesterly winds continue through the morning
  before tapering through the remainder of Wednesday.

- Light, mixed-precipitation chances (20-30%) Wednesday night
  into Thursday, followed by a return of colder temperatures
  for the weekend.

- Another round of light snow is possible (20-40% chance) Friday
  night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

We find ourselves in the heart of the cold air advection this
morning and wind observations have fallen just shy of
expectations. Most gusts have fallen between 50 and 58 mph
(advisory criteria) though KTQE, KHNR, KSUX have all peaked
above 60 mph. Will let the advisories and warnings - currently
set to expire at 8am - ride for now. Winds will slowly relax
over the course of the day as the shortwave and strongest cold
air advection continue southeast. Wind speeds will be close to
normal by this evening.

AM lows won`t be much cooler than forecast highs as CAA
continues into the evening... especially over western Iowa. High
temps will range from mid-40s to the southwest to upper 20s in
the northeast. But already by this evening, the surface high
pressure will slide far enough east to allow return flow at the
surface. Warm air advection is expected just above the surface
which explains the 20-30% PoPs this evening along the SD border.
Temps will be cold enough to keep the precip falling as light
snow until Thursday morning.

.THURSDAY...

Current guidance suggests p-type uncertainly early Thursday
morning with a warm nose developing above the surface and
surface temps remaining sub-freezing. Model soundings would
produce some freezing rain (35% PoPs) in the Sioux City area
with better chances (>70%) in southern South Dakota. QPF is low,
but freezing rain doesn`t need much ice to produce impacts. As
the ridge continues to inch east and WAA continues, the
temperature gradient across the area tightens further. There may
be a 20 degree range between the warm SW corner of the CWA and
its NE corner. Precip chances move east of the area on Thursday
evening.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

Behind the exiting system, cooler air builds in on Friday. Highs
near freezing will fall shy of seasonal norms. Even colder
temps are expected on Saturday and Sunday as an arctic airmass
settles into the upper Mississippi River valley. AM Lows are
forecast to slip into the single digits. Sunday morning wind
chills may dip as cold as -20 to -10 for areas east of a line
from Omaha to Norfolk.

Global deterministic models indicate weak ridging across the
area early next week lending itself to moderating temperatures.
C`mon global deterministic models!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

An MVFR (FL015-025) cloud deck in place over far eastern NE and
western IA is expected to shift east of KOMA by 21-22z, with
prevailing VFR conditions thereafter. Otherwise, expect
mid/high-level cloudiness to increase areawide tonight into
Thursday morning with a 15-20% chance of slight snow or
flurries. North-northwest winds will continue to diminish this
afternoon into evening before becoming light southeast overnight
into Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

981
FXUS63 KGID 101801
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1201 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds (30-50mph) continue this morning, gradually
  decreasing after sunrise. A High Wind Warning in effect until
  6am for counties north of I-80.

- Light rain/snow possible (15-20%) this evening/night for north/northeast
  portions of the area.

- Roller Coaster temperatures through the forecast period, with highs
  ranging from the 50s/60s Thursday to the 20s/30s this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 308 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty winds are ongoing across the area this morning, gusting 30-
50mph, strongest along and north of Interstate 80. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect until 6AM for counties north of I-80.
Winds are expected to gradually decrease throughout the daytime
hours as the pressure gradient weakens over the area, becoming light
by the mid-late afternoon. After a well above normal day on Tuesday,
highs will be closer their climatological norms, in the 40s. Lift
increases over the area this evening, bringing a chance (15-20%) for
light snow/rain to north/northeastern portions of the area. Any
accumulations look to be very light (up to a dusting of snow). Lows
tonight will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

A warm front lifts over the area on Thursday as the next clipper
system dives into the Plains/Midwest. In the warm sector of this
system, well above normal temperatures are expected, as highs soar
into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Far southwestern portions of the
area could even reach 70 degrees! There remains some uncertainty on
highs northeast of the Tri-Cities, due to remaining spread in model
guidance on the exact location of the front. Regardless, it will be
another nice day to enjoy if you can, before cooler weather arrives
this weekend. Highs this weekend will be in the 20s and 30s for most
locations. The roller coaster temperatures continue next week as
highs climb back above normal under upper level ridging.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today through tonight...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the
country with upper ridging over California extending to southwest
Texas. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is moving
over the northern Plains/upper Midwest with an associated surface
low extending southward towards west Texas and eastern New Mexico.
The surface low has resulted in southwest to west winds across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. This has also
resulted in a warm up across the area with high temperatures today
expected to be in the 50s and 60s. A cold front will move into the
area this evening into tonight as the shortwave moves southeastward.
This front will bring gusty northwest winds across the area this
evening and tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 MPH are expected
with gusts of 30 to 60 MPH. A High Wind Warning is in effect along
and north of a line from Sherman to Polk County from 6 PM this
evening to 6 AM Wednesday. Some sprinkles or light rain showers may
occur this evening (around a 10% chance) as the front moves into the
area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of the upper trough on Wednesday. Winds will
initially be gusty out of the northwest then will weaken and switch
to the south during the evening. Temperatures will be cooler with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s on Wednesday. Some models are
indicating an increase in upper lift across portions of northeast
and east Nebraska Wednesday evening and night with precipitation
developing into central and south central Nebraska (mainly for
locations along and north and east of the Tri-Cities). The NAM12
does not indicate this increase in upper lift; therefore, is not
showing any precipitation in central or eastern Nebraska. The GFS
does indicate the increase in upper lift and is showing
precipitation Wednesday evening and night across the above mentioned
locations. If this precipitation develops and moves across portions
of the area, some of it may be in the form of snow due to overnight
temperatures Wednesday night cooling into the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Any snow accumulations are expected to be light.

Thursday and Thursday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough is expected to move further
east on Thursday, and a surface trough will move into Nebraska and
Kansas from the west. This surface trough is expected to create a
large temperature gradient across Nebraska and Kansas. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperatures on Thursday due to
the placement of this gradient. At this time, expect highs on
Thursday to range from the upper 40s in the northeastern part of the
forecast area to the upper 60s in the southwest. Winds on Thursday
will switch to the west (in the warm sector) then to the north later
in the day/evening as a cold front begins to move into the area. Low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the low 20s in the north
to the mid 30s in the south.

Friday through Monday...

A surface high will be across the area on Friday with northerly
winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas. High temperatures behind the cold front on Friday are
expected to range from the low 30s to mid 40s. Winds will switch to
the east and southeast Friday night with temperatures dropping to
around 11 degrees to the low/mid 20s. Another cold front is expected
to push into the area on Saturday with high temperatures only in the
low 20s to low 40s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the
single digits to low teens. High temperatures on Sunday will be
similar to those on Saturday. Low temperatures Sunday night are
expected to be in the teens and low 20s. A warm up is in store for
Monday with the surface high moving further east. High temperatures
on Monday are expected to be in the low 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with
decreasing winds and increasing mid/high level clouds.

Gusty northerly winds will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours as clouds increase out of the northwest and
surface high pressure settles in across the area ahead of the
next upper level disturbance. Cigs will eventually lower to near
10KFT overnight, and could even see a couple of flurries across
the area, primarily during the evening hours, but most light
snow/flurry activity should be northeast of the terminals. Winds
will shift and become southwesterly across the area on
Thursday, but generally remain on the lighter side with gusts
under 20 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion