Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

122
FXUS63 KOAX 230427
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs reach the 50s today. There is a slight 15 to 20% chance
  for some light rain/sprinkles across the area late this
  morning into the afternoon.

- Mid 60s to low 70s return for Tuesday with dry conditions.

- Very high fire danger returns to the area on Wednesday and Thursday
  as do warmer temperatures. Thursday will see gusty northerly
  winds of 30 to 35 mph. Next best chance (15-30%) for
  precipitation returns late Thursday into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis shows a 1029 mb sfc high centered over
eastern South Dakota. The gusty winds have decreased in speed
considerably over the last hour or so, and should further reduce to
less than 5 mph by 12z as the feature moves over the Missouri River
Valley.

By mid morning into the afternoon, an H5 shortwave will approach
from the west. This feature will produce some mid level lift in
tandem with weak H8-H7 warm air advection. This may be enough to
generate a few scattered rain showers as seen from the various CAM
guidance, but much of this will struggle to reach the sfc. Forecast
BUFKIT soundings continue suggesting dry air below 3km being the
culprit for the dry conditions. Forecast soundings in northeast
Nebraska do suggest better saturation in the low levels in the
afternoon where the better moisture transport is. Have kept a band
of low PoPs of 15 to 20% for rain/sprinkles starting after 15z
across our west. PoPs should track east throughout the afternoon,
and will largely exit the area by 00z. Otherwise, should see
overcast skies for most of the day with highs in the 50s. Lows cool
to the mid 30s.

Temperatures rebound for Tuesday as southerly flow returns with
highs in the 70s across eastern Nebraska, and slightly cooler in
western Iowa with highs in the mid 60s. The dry conditions will
persist too with only some high based clouds.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Temperatures warm further Wednesday as the H8 baroclinic zone is
progged to swing northeast over the area. Highs are forecast to
reach the 80s areawide, while areas over our far south along the
Kansas border may hit 90F. Despite the 15 to 20 mph winds, warm and
extremely dry conditions combined with the cured fuels will lead to
areas of very high fire danger for much of eastern Nebraska into the
Missouri River Valley.

While temperatures cool slightly for Thursday as a frontal boundary
swings through, winds will be gusty at 30 to 35 mph near and behind
the front. Ensemble guidance, particularly the EPS members, suggest
the potential of seeing gusts up to 40 mph Thursday. There is a
slight 15 to 20% chance for some light rain across the area too
behind the front, but these chances remain rather low with model
soundings showing at least some dry air in the low levels. However,
given the gusty northerly winds and extremely cured fuels, will
still see areawide very high fire danger in the afternoon. Chances
for a rain/snow mix do increase by early Friday morning mainly along
and south of I-80 (15 to 30% chance). Temperatures behind the front
on Friday only warm to the 50s. This cool down will be short lived
as 1000-500 mb thicknesses begin expanding and pushing toward the
Central Plains again. Highs rebound Saturday to the 60s, while
70s are expected for Sunday with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm northerly winds will prevail overnight before
shifting to southeasterly late Monday morning. A few clouds
will pass by around FL015 during the late morning. Winds will
increase into the afternoon, with a few gusts in the 15-20 kt
range possible. An overcast mid- to upper- level cloud deck will
push in during the afternoon and evening. Light rain will be
possible (15% chance) as this cloud deck moves in, though a dry
sub- cloud layer leaves virga as the most probable outcome.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

214
FXUS63 KGID 230438
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning will be in effect today from 1PM-9PM for
  Dawson, Gosper, Phelps, Furnas and Harlan counties in Nebraska
  & Phillips and Rooks counties in Kansas. Gusty winds out of
  the south will occasionally gust as high as 25-35MPH across
  the afternoon hours.

- Given the relatively dry conditions and occasional periods of
  gusty winds this week, at least near-critical fire weather
  conditions are likely to materialize each day. For more
  information, please refer to the fire weather section.

- Temperatures in the 50s today, 70s Tuesday and 80s Wednesday
  will be followed by another dip after a mid-week cold frontal
  passage (sometime Wednesday evening/night). Temperatures
  beyond Wednesday/Thursday will drop back to the 50s and will
  try to build back up to the 70s once more by next Sunday.

- Beyond a few sprinkles to isolated areas of light showers
  today/tonight (10-20% chances), no organized precipitation
  system is expected to pass through the area in the near/short-
  term (though Wednesday). The next slight chance of
  precipitation (20-30%) currently lies Thursday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Another breezy day is at store today as an around 1032mb surface
high pressure center builds in across the Midwest, tightening up
the local pressure gradient, especially towards the west. The light
northeasterly winds in place early this morning will soon twirl
to a southerly direction with speeds picking up across the
morning to early afternoon hours. Wind speeds of 15-20MPH will
blow across much of the afternoon hours with gusts as high as
25-35MPH possible, especially for the western half of the area.

Given the lower dewpoints/humidity today, drier conditions across
our far western edge mixed with gusty afternoon winds have once
again prompted the need for a Red Flag Warning this afternoon for a
few of our western counties. The Red Flag Warning will be in
effect for Dawson, Gosper, Phelps, Furnas and Harlan counties in
Nebraska & Phillips and Rooks counties in Kansas between 1PM
and 9PM. For more information, please refer to the fire weather
section below.

Aloft, a weak shortwave trough will stir up a bit of cloud coverage
across the region with a few embedded light showers and areas of
sprinkles possible today and tonight (10-20% chances). Given the
limited moisture content (upper teens to low 20s dewpoints), the
coverage of these scattered light showers will likely be very
limited in coverage. As result, areas that do observe
precipitation, should see slim to none in accumulation amounts
(T-0.05"). Otherwise, temperatures today are expected to fall a
few degrees shy of yesterday with highs likely on track to
spread across the 50s this afternoon.

Despite partly cloudy skies returning for the day Tuesday, warming
temperatures fueled by retaining southerly oriented winds should help
lift highs up into the 70s. Highs will likely continue to warm into
the 80s for Wednesday with clearing skies and light westerly winds.
Beyond the isolated shower/sprinkle chances today/tonight, the rest
of the short-term period through Wednesday is expected to remain
dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- As far as forecast changes/uncertainties go, nothing truly
  major to speak of as the main messages through the next 7 days
  clearly remain daily fire weather concerns to varying
  degrees, fairly large temperature swings, and VERY limited
  precipitation chances. That being said:

1) High temps for Wednesday jumped up a good 3-4 degrees from
our early-AM forecast, with most of our CWA now aimed well into
the 80s (at least near-record territory for March 25th at Grand
Island/Hastings), and even some low 90s now forecast for some of
our far southern-southwest counties.

2) As is unfortunately very common with wind speed forecasts
especially more than 2 days out in time, our official forecast
is almost certainly still too "tame" with wind speeds on
various upcoming days including Tuesday/Wednesday, and only a
modest increase in forecast speeds could easily bring critical
fire weather conditions more into play (again, see dedicated
Fire Weather section below for more details).

- Peeking slightly beyond our official 7-day forecast, there are
  still some "hopeful hints" that perhaps the March 30th-April
  1st time frame could FINALLY bring some increased chances for
  a little more widespread rain (and maybe even some
  thunderstorm activity?) to our area.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 29)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Wow, what a difference a day makes! Although official CALENDAR
DAY high temperatures will officially reflect very mild highs
well into the 60s-70s (readings just after midnight last night),
actual DAYTIME highs (under widespread sunshine this afternoon)
are on track to top out "only" 53-62 degrees across most of our
CWA...some 35-40 DEGREES COOLER than yesterday`s historic early-
season heat! Even so, we are still talking temperatures that are
technically just above "normal" for the date. Besides the much
cooler temperatures, the other obvious story today has been the
blustery north winds, with much of the morning/early afternoon
featuring gusts commonly up around 45 MPH (and a handful of
gusts up to around 55 MPH). Fortunately though, and as expected,
wind speeds over the last few hours have started to slowly trend
downward, with the rest of the afternoon mainly featuring
sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH)...with the surface
pressure gradient continuing to slowly relax as a ridge of high
pressure noses closer to us out of the Dakotas/western MN.
Fortunately for fire weather concerns, relative humidity (RH)
has/will only drop as low as 25-35 percent at worst this
afternoon...keeping us out of official critical (20%) territory.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term
model data confirm that the Central Plains resides under broad
west-northwesterly flow aloft...directed between large-
scale/lower amplitude ridging over the southwestern U.S., and
troughing over the northeast U.S.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
This evening, skies will remain clear/mostly clear as north-
northeast winds steadily diminish, with speeds down to around
only 10 MPH by 9-11 PM...then even lighter yet into the late
night hours as direction gradually turns more easterly and
southeasterly as the aforementioned surface ridge axis slides
just to our east. Later in the night, mid and high level clouds
will be on a steady increase from the west as as low amplitude
disturbance approaches. It`s not out of the question that a few
sprinkles could even try falling shortly before sunrise in our
extreme southwest (Furnas County area), but this is not in the
official forecast. Low temps are a little tricky tonight, as it
will be a "battle" between the lightening winds and the
increasing cloud cover. However, no matter what this will
probably be the coldest night of the next week, with lows aimed
from upper 20s-low 30s north and northeast, to mid 30s south and
southwest.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
Our break from breezy-to-windy conditions is brief, as south-
south southeast winds will increase especially during the
afternoon as our pressure gradient tightens up. Sustained
afternoon speeds will commonly be 15-25 MPH/gusts 20-35
MPH...overall-strongest within our western half (west of Hwy
281). In other departments, it will be a rather cloudy day with
a considerable amount of mainly mid-level clouds based 5-10K ft.
While most places will surely remain completely dry and/or see
no more than a rogue sprinkle or two, have maintained some
slight chances (20%) for light rain during the day for much of
mainly our Nebraska counties, as various models suggest that a
touch of light rain could make it to the surface despite the
drier low levels. Would be VERY surprised to see any locations
measure more than a few hundredths of an inch. Given the
widespread clouds, there is a little uncertainty in high temps,
as we MIGHT be aiming a touch too warm in some spots, but
currently calling for mid-upper 50s most places, and any warmer
low 60s confined to our far south-southwestern counties. As
detailed in Fire Weather section below, a few of our extreme
western counties will need closely monitored for possible
marginally-critical conditions.

For Monday evening-overnight, left the forecast dry for now,
but a few models hint that especially our KS counties could be
prone to a few sprinkles. In the presence of fairly light but
steady south-southeast breezes, low temps will not be quite as
chilly as tonight...mainly mid-upper 30s most places.


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
Our next warm-up gets underway, as upper level high
pressure/ridging over the southwestern U.S. starts to exert more
of an influence into our part of the nation. High temps bounce
back up into the low-mid 70s most places, with perhaps an 80
possible especially out in Furnas County. Southerly winds will
be breezy and probably a bit stronger than our current forecast
reflects, and think it`s pretty likely that later forecast will
trend toward gusts closer to 25 MPH than 20 MPH. As with daytime
highs, overnight low temps also warm, with Tues night lows
likely to hold up well into the 40s.


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
As touched on earlier, this day keeps looking warmer and warmer,
and although nothing quite as extreme as yesterday`s warmth, we
are now calling for highs well into the 80s most areas, and even
some low 90s far south-southwest. Like Tuesday, our current wind
forecast may not be strong enough, but gusts of at least 20-25
MPH are probably a good bet out of the west-northwest as a
surface trough axis passes by. Given the well-above-average
warmth (perhaps pushing March 25th record territory at Grand
Island/Hastings), fire weather could be a legitimate concern.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
Of all upcoming days, the greatest uncertainty in high
temperatures revolves around Thursday, as we could again be well
into the 80s if a well-defined cold front arrives later in the
day (as the latest ECMWF suggests), but conversely could be only
reach the 60s (at most) if the front arrives during the morning
(as the latest GFS suggests). Not surprisingly, our official
forecast is a "middle ground" with most areas aimed into the
70s. No matter when the front arrives, it will likely be
accompanied by north-northeast winds gusting at least 35
MPH...again making fire weather a definite concern.
Precipitation-wise, our latest forecast has somewhat-increased
precip chances for mainly Thurs night, as especially the GFS
suggests a quick hit of light rain and possibly even snow...but
this is FAR from a sure thing. On Friday, a dry forecast returns
along with cooler temperatures...highs only aimed into the low-
mid 50s. It should also be less-windy than Thursday.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Although the ECMWF hints at some spotty rain potential on
Saturday, our official forecast remains dry, which appears
reasonable for now given limited forcing/lift aloft. Of higher
confidence is that we`ll see another warm-up, with highs
bouncing back up to around 60 on Saturday and then 70s for
Sunday. Both days also look rather breezy out of the south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with the main
concern being with gusty winds this afternoon. Can`t rule out some
sprinkles/scattered showers during the mid-late morning hours as a
weak upper level disturbance moves through...at this point due to
uncertainties with coverage, kept as a VCSH mention. Once those rain
chances pass, the rest of the period looks to be dry. Surface high
pressure sinking through the region tonight will bring
light/variable winds, eventually turning more southeasterly
closer/after sunrise, and continuing through this period. This
afternoon, expecting increasing speeds, with gusts near 30 MPH not
out of the question...tapering off during the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Unfortunately, other than some small chances for light precipitation
today/tonight (10-20% chances) and perhaps Thursday night (20-30%
chances), the vast majority of these next 7-days appear dry. As a
result, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are likely
nearly every afternoon within our forecast area (CWA), with at least
a few days probably also eventually featuring outright-critical
conditions for at least parts of our CWA.

Beyond our far western area Monday, the official forecast does not
particularly highlight any potentially critical days (perhaps
Thursday being of overall-most concern?), but the "finer details" of
wind speeds/relative humidity (RH) are notoriously difficult to pin
down more than 2 days in advance...so later forecasts will need
closely monitored for if/when confidence increases in any potential
critical days.

Following is a rundown of where fire weather concerns currently
stand within our CWA, exclusively focused on the next four days (Mon-
Thurs):

- MONDAY: Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are
  probable with critical conditions now expected to materialize
  for a few of our far western areas. An overlap of south-
  southeast winds gusting at least 20-30 MPH and RH falling to
  at least 20-25% will set up area-wide near-critical fire
  weather conditions. The overall most concerning combination of
  strongest winds (gusts 30+ MPH) and lowest relative humidity
  (15- 20%) appears to favor our western areas. This shift, we
  have issued a Red Flag Warning for Dawson, Gosper, Phelps,
  Furnas and Harlan counties in Nebraska & Phillips and Rooks
  counties in Kansas between 1PM and 9PM this afternoon/evening.

- TUESDAY: Temperatures start warming back up (highs back into
  the 70s), and breezy winds continue...this time more out the
  south. At least for now, our official forecast keeps wind
  gusts under 25 MPH and keeps RH above 20% for most of our CWA.
  However, this forecaster is a bit concerned that our wind
  speed forecast might still be at least 5 MPH too low...so
  Tuesday is certainly not "out of the woods" from possible
  critical conditions in later forecasts.

- WEDNESDAY: This day keeps trending warmer...and is pretty
  clearly the overall-warmest day of the next 7 with high temps
  now projected well into the 80s most places, and even a few
  low 90s in far south-southwest counties. Given this warmth,
  confidence is high that RH will be critically-low (at least
  15-20%), but like Tuesday, our current wind forecast keeps
  west-northwesterly gusts under 25 MPH. However, once again, in
  all reality our wind forecast is probably not high enough. If
  speeds trend up 5-10 MPH in later forecasts, this could be
  another day with critical conditions.

- THURSDAY: Although still plenty of details to sort out,
  Thursday is probably trending toward being more of a day of
  concern for potentially-critical conditions. Although there is
  quite a bit of uncertainty in how warm/cool it might be (and
  thus uncertainty in how low RH gets), there is increasing
  confidence that a fairly strong cold front will pass
  through...kicking up north-northeast winds to 35+ MPH.
  However, it is still unclear whether this front passes through
  earlier or later in the day.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap
  of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of
  20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for NEZ060-072-
     073-082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch/Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion