Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

540
FXUS63 KOAX 211911
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
111 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will taper off from north to south this afternoon, with
  totals generally topping out around 0.25-0.50" near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Expect a mild, dry weekend with highs in the low 60s; rain
  chances increase again Monday, peaking at 60-80%.

- Cooler weather arrives next week, with highs falling into the
  30s and low 40s by Thanksgiving.

- Monitor the forecast for Thanksgiving into next weekend, there
  are early hints of snowfall, but confidence in timing and
  location remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Tonight through Sunday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon shows a mid-
level shortwave moving across the central Plains, with an associated
surface low over central Kansas slowly drifting east. A band of
precipitation north of the low continues to bring light rain to
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rain will steadily diminish
from north to south through the afternoon, with totals generally
topping out around 0.25-0.50" near the Nebraska-Kansas border.
Persistent cloud cover and northerly low-level flow will hold
afternoon temperatures in the chilly 40s.

Between the departing low to the south and another surface low near
the North Dakota-Canada border, a weak front will slide through
tonight into Saturday morning, shifting winds to the southwest.
Guidance does hint at the possibility for patchy fog again Saturday
morning. However, winds increase just enough behind the front with
model soundings bringing gusty winds just above the surface as
well. Therefore, any fog will likely be very patchy and
constrained to wind protected areas in southeast NE and
southwest IA.

Clearing skies and a modest pattern change will allow Saturday`s
highs to climb into the low 60s, about 10-15 degrees above the
climatological average for mid- November. Although a weak cold
front will sweep through early Sunday as the northern system
passed by, temperatures will remain largely unaffected, with
southerly flow quickly returning and highs again reaching the
low 60s. Overall, the weekend looks mild, dry and pleasant.

Monday and Beyond...

By Monday, the closed mid-level low currently positioned along the
California-Baja coast will slingshot northeast toward the region,
bringing our next chance for precipitation. PoPs move in Sunday
night and peak around 60-80% Monday morning before diminishing from
west to east through the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is
expected to fall as rain, with temperatures largely holding in the
40s and 50s. Cooler air arrives Tuesday on the backside of the
departing low, and a handful of EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members
(roughly one-eighth) suggest the potential for some light snow in
northeast NE as the system exits. At this time, the probability of
impacts appear low, but it`s something to watch. High Tuesday will
generally reach the 40s, accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds.

By midweek, a mid- to upper-level trough sweeping across the
northern Plains will send a reinforcing shot of cold air into the
region, dropping high temperatures into the 30s and low 40s through
the remainder of the work week, with overnight lows in the teens and
20s. Long-range guidance also hints at a band of light snow Thursday
into early Friday, though GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS members show
considerable spread in both placement and intensity. For now, PoPs
remain below 20%, but the situation will be monitored. A more robust
mid- to upper-level trough is expected to arrive next weekend,
bringing better chances for snow; however, ensemble solutions
continue to vary widely on where snowfall may set up. It will be a
period to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1026 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

MVFR with patchy areas of IFR ceilings continue across southeast
Nebraska late this morning as rain showers persist. Impacts will
mostly be constrained to KLNK, where MVFR ceilings and rain
showers continue. While a few light rain showers may reach KOMA,
generally VFR ceilings will prevail at KOMA and KOFK. Showers
will clear from north to south through the after, with a return
to VFR conditions expected at KLNK by mid-afternoon. Lingering
clouds at 6000-9000 ft will gradually break up and improve
through the afternoon and evening. Northeasterly winds will
remain at 7-10 kts through the period, shifting to southwesterly
overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

156
FXUS63 KGID 212129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
329 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall is tapering off across the local area this afternoon
  and dry conditions are expected to return tonight.

- Pleasant weather returns this weekend with highs in the 60s,
  light winds, and partly to mostly sunny skies (especially
  Saturday).

- Light rain possible Sunday night-Monday (30-60% chance), with
  minimal accumulations (0.01-0.25").

- Cooler weather then settles in Tuesday as a pattern shift is
  anticipated across much of the center of the country with a
  more active weather pattern potentially coming Thanksgiving
  weekend and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cloudy skies and occasionally wet conditions were observed
across much of the local area today, with significant rainfall
(1-3"+) accumulating across our Kansas counties. Further north,
the gradient in precipitation was sharp, and parts of the area
mainly north of interstate 80 - received only a few hundredths
to a couple tenths of an inch of precip in the most favored
locations. Expect the responsible area of low pressure to
continue to track east tonight, with rainfall likely tapering
off by dark.

As the next upper level low then digs off the southern CA/Baja
coast Saturday...expect heights aloft to amplify and skies to
clear, with a very nice start to the weekend in store for the
entire region. Light westerly winds (unfavorable for morning
fog - but favorable for warmer temps) are then anticipated
across the area ahead of this low on Saturday...which should
also help boost temperatures into the 60s area wide. These
westerly winds will then shift and become more southerly on
Sunday, ahead of the aforementioned upper level low off the CA
coast that will bring increasing cloud cover throughout the day.
Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures should remain on the
mild side Sunday, with a chance of rain overtaking the region
Sunday night into Monday. This low will then rapidly move east
by Monday afternoon, and given the progressive nature and lack
of moisture depicted in the models, anticipate QPF to be on the
light side (0.01-0.25") despite the rather high pops (30-60%).

Thereafter, a cold front from the north will push across the
local area Tuesday...potentially bringing very windy conditions
to the region during the daytime hours. Behind this front,
northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated to persist through the
remainder of the forecast period...and likely beyond. This will
result in a cooler weather pattern, with occasional chances for
precip. The first chance, Thanksgiving night, is not anticipated
to be significant locally or impact many, with models honing in
on the subsequent disturbance late in the weekend that could
potentially bring the first measurable snowfall of the season to
start December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR conditions will prevail at both terminals for another couple
of hours as the system that is impacting the region slowly
tracks to the east and the very light rain that is impacting the
area ends. CIGS should then become VFR around 21/20Z...although
plenty of mid level cloud cover near 6KFT will persist into the
late evening hours based on upstream obs. As this system exits
the local area...northeast winds will gradually diminish...
eventually becoming light and variably by 22/00Z...before
increasing to near 10 KTS out of the west Saturday morning on
the backside of the departed system.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion