66°F
Updated:
8/4/2026
5:04:19pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
918 FXUS63 KOAX 041902 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 202 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances shift to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday evening into Wednesday (60-90% chance). - Milder temperatures through Thursday, warming back up going into the weekend. Dry, seasonably warm weather expected over the weekend. - Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north. A small amount may be found at the surface. Most will be elevated and may produce some hazy skies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Surface analysis shows the cooler Canadian air has pushed through all but the last southeastern counties of the CWA. Behind the front, temps are mostly in the 60s and 70s with brisk northerly winds. Ahead of it, Falls City, Nebraska City, and southwest Iowa have managed 80 before the cooler air has arrived. KOAX has been interpreting returns from rain since before sunrise. Radar estimates suggest some locations between Norfolk and Sioux City (including Wayne) have received 1.5". Ground truth shows gauges mostly reporting closer to half of that. These showers and associated lightning/thunder are slowly sliding east/southeast and are expected to dissipate and push out of the southeastern corner CWA by about 7pm tonight as the shortwave responsible for their forcing continues east. The dry spell won`t last long as another vort max - currently over the high country of Colorado - pushes through overnight. That combined with the extra lift provided by the summer nocturnal jet, and likely PoPs (80-90%) are expected in the areas within 50 miles of I-80. With PWAT values near the 90th percentile for August, some localized heavy rain is possible in the urban areas of Omaha and Lincoln. CAM QPF suggests rainfall of 3.5" is possible at Omaha, which would overwhelm the city`s drainage system. Considered a flood watch, but will hold off for now due to low confidence as to where the QPF bullseye is most likely to set up, but western Iowa/Omaha metro has best odds. The SPC added an area of "marginal threat" for severe weather this evening. Most of the lift is displaced north of the front, but just ahead of it, there is 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 40-50 knots of bulk shear. Should a storm tap into that instability, it could produce some borderline severe weather. Overnight`s instability will be elevated... leaving lots of thunder and lightning, but little severe threat. .WEDNESDAY... Rainfall will continue over the southern half of the area through Wednesday`s first half before continuing southeast. Skies will be clearing from north to south, but they`ll remain marred by the wildfire smoke drifting in from Canada. Expect a 20-30% reduction in sunlight. There may be some smoke found at the surface, too, but models seem to be overdoing it so far based on observations from up north and I have opted not to include it in the forecast for now. Temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday behind the front with highs relegated mostly to the 70s as high pressure works in from the north. .THURSDAY AND BEYOND... Southerly return flow develops as the sfc high slides east. Those winds help push temps past the 80F mark. More showers and storms are possible late on Thursday night as another shortwave sweeps through Kansas. Temps will continue to warm into the weekend, but as the H5 pattern becomes quasi-zonal, temps should moderate to near seasonal averages or a few degrees warmer into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Line of showers and storms in the northern half of the area are expected to push southeast and out of the area by 6pm tonight. These showers and storms will be impacting LNK and KOMA from about 00Z to 02Z this evening. More convection is expected to develop by 9pm tonight, and expand and slide east through the overnight hours. These storms should remain sub-severe, but will produce some wind gusts of 40 mph or so and leave MVFR cigs at KOMA and perhaps KOFK and KLNK, too. Wildfire smoke drifting in from the north is mostly elevated at 5-8,000 feet, but there will be some at the sfc, too... especially on the northern and western edges of the area as the TAF period continues. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Nicolaisen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
098 FXUS63 KGID 042033 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 333 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to push east across the area this afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity. - After a relative lull this evening...another round of showers/storms starts working its way in from the west, mainly after midnight, but especially closer to dawn. These chances will continue on through midday/early afternoon...with the best chances roughly in the I-80 to state line corridor. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity. - Forecast for Wed night on through the weekend is overall drier. After another cool day Wed with highs in the 70s...temps are back in the 80s for Thursday, then 90s to near 100 for the weekend. For Sat-Mon, heat index values around 100-105 are possible, especially across the southern half of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Currently through this evening... A swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way east across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue on through the rest of this afternoon. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal flow in place across the region. Across the CONUS, upper level low pressure is spinning in the GA/SC area, while the main area of high pressure centered over the Desert SW is being dampened by low pressure/broad troughing over much of central/western Canada into the northern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows shortwave disturbances embedded in the main overall flow...one of which is helping drive the ongoing activity across the forecast area. At the surface, the forecast sits just north of the main cold front...which has stalled some, currently sitting from SW/south central KS up into ESErn IA. Behind this frontal boundary, winds have been gusty (esp. by August standards) out of the NNE...gusts have mainly been around 25-30 MPH. Between the plentiful cloud cover, scattered precipitation and sitting on the north side of the frontal boundary...not surprising that in spots temperatures have been struggling so far today. By the time it`s all said and done...forecast highs across southern areas will turn out alright...but some spots across south central NE may not end up even hitting 70 degrees. Still some time to recover behind this activity anywhere there are breaks in the cloud cover. For the rest of today...main concern lies with the ongoing activity. There have been spots at times that have perked up in strength...but the overall environment is not supportive of a notable severe weather threat. Not out of the question that some storms could be strong...with gusty winds/small hail the main threats. Instability is sitting around 500-1000 j/kg across central/NErn areas, closer to 1500 j/kg in the SE...but both low and mid level lapse rates are pretty low. Timing of the main swath has it clearing the forecast area early this evening...and while there could be some isolated lingering activity, models showing a relative lull...with better lift along an increasing LLJ looking to focus just off to our east. Later tonight through Wednesday... Mainly after midnight tonight, models showing another embedded weaker shortwave disturbance making its way out of the Rockies and onto the Plains...ushering the next chance for showers/thunderstorms. Higher-res models aren`t in too bad of agreement showing that as far as timing goes...the better chances hold off until closer to/after 09Z. Little more uncertainty with the overall coverage initially, so PoPs remain broad with chances in place CWA-wide. The overall best chances run roughly from around sunrise through the early afternoon hours...dropping off from west to east, possibly dry area-wide by mid-afternoon. The highest chances remain focused through the heart of the forecast area, roughly from I-80 to near the state line...though at least 20-30 percent chances are outside that corridor to cover the rest of the area. Not anticipating this activity to be severe...with the SPC Day 2 outlook remaining well outside our boundaries. At the surface, winds won`t be as gusty as they have been today...as high pressure slides through the area. Winds turn more easterly with time, speeds topping out around 10 MPH. The daytime precipitation chances and lingering cloud cover make for a tricky temperature forecast...as there will be some opportunity to recover if precip does in fact clear out by mid- afternoon and we can get breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast highs through the central portions of the area are in the lower 70s, with mid-70s to the north and south. Thursday and on... Looking toward the end of this week on into the start of next week...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the forecast. Big picture-wise...models continue to show the upper level pattern through this timeframe flexing to varying degrees of west-northwest flow. The main area of upper level high pressure remains centered generally over the Desert SW...at times able to amplify a bit more early-on thanks to deeper troughing over portions of the eastern CONUS...but then is dampened by additional activity moving onto western Canada/far NNWrn CONUS. Spotty, generally low-end preciptiation chances remain in the forecast...as there is still the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances to push through the region...but confidence in the timing and tracking of any of these disturbances is pretty low at this point. Forecast continues to show a warming trend from the 70s of Wednesday...with low-mid 80s on Thursday increasing into the 90s- near 100 for this weekend/Monday. Heat index values around 100-105 are not out of the question Sat-Mon, especially for the southern half of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Main concerns lie with precipitation chances and lower ceilings. Have chances for showers/storms already in the area to start this TAF period...with the overall best potential being in the first couple of hours. Potential for MVFR ceilings will also continue to start off...should see some gradual lifting, but confidence in exact timing is not high. Another chance for showers/storms returns later tonight into Wed. AM...kept the PROB30 mention going during that time period. Winds through tonight expected to remain northeasterly...gusts near 25 MPH will continue for at least a few more hours before starting to gradually diminish. Winds look to turn more east-northeasterly by early-mid morning Wed. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP
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