77°F
Updated:
6/18/2026
1:29:24pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
586 FXUS63 KOAX 181631 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1131 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and pleasant weather conditions today, with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. - A few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder are possible Friday afternoon and evening, but severe weather is not expected. - Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are possible Saturday evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding will be the main concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a broad mid- to upper-level trough axis pushing toward the northeast CONUS, leaving much of the region under zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. With surface high pressure also filtering into the area, today is shaping up to be a calm and pleasant June day, with afternoon highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s. Similar conditions will continue Friday, with afternoon highs warming slightly into the low to mid 80s as weak mid-level riding builds in and low-level flow returns to southerly. A shortwave disturbance tracking across the Upper Midwest will push a weak front through the area Friday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for widely scattered showers (PoPs 20-35%). Limited moisture and instability should keep severe weather potential low, though there may be just enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder, especially across southeast Nebraska. Saturday and Beyond... Severe weather potential returns to the area Saturday as a shortwave impulse moves through the Front Range and helps develop a surface low over CO/WY. The low is expected to track eastward across NE/KS through the weekend. Ahead of the approaching system, moisture will be drawn northward across the Plains into the region, pushing dewpoints into the 60s as afternoon highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible Saturday afternoon, but the main round of storms is expected to arrive during the evening and overnight hours as a large thunderstorm complex moves into the area, supported by an increasing low-level jet nosing into eastern NE. The primary hazards appear to be damaging wind gusts with a bowing segment possible, though isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado also remain possible. Additional CAM guidance will help refine the finer details. Thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight period, with widespread PoPs peaking at 85-95% Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another primary concern Saturday will be heavy rainfall and flash flood potential. Strong moisture transport into the area will bring PWAT values near or above 1.75 inches, which is above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology. Warm cloud depths around 3-4km will support efficient rainfall rates. Latest NBM guidance shows a 70-90% probability of at least 1 inch of precipitation and a 30-70% probability of at least 2 inches, with the highest probabilities focused toward southeast Nebraska. PoPs will taper off through the day Sunday, with continued cloud cover keeping highs in the 70s for most locations. Monday into next week, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain as generally zonal flow aloft persists and any subtle embedded shortwave disturbances drive precipitation chances. With no strong forcing evident at this time, confidence in timing and coverage remains lower. Highs will remain in the 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday before warming back into the 80s by Wednesday. Periodic 15-30% PoPs continue Tuesday through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will continue at 12-15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon, gradually calming under 12 kts by 19/00Z. A few clouds may traverse the area at FL050-070. Winds will become calm and variable overnight before shifting to southerly tomorrow morning. Isolated rain showers may approach KOFK after 19/13Z, though confidence is too low (30% chance) to include in the TAFs at this time given the lack in coverage. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
541 FXUS63 KGID 181727 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly light rain showers/sprinkles across portions of the area overnight into the morning hours. - Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 70s and 80s. - Rain and storm chances increase beginning Friday (up to 30% chance) with the highest chances Saturday night (up to near 100% chance). - There is a threat of severe storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with an overnight MCS likely. && .UPDATE... Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 North to northeast winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A shortwave is moving overhead now resulting in showers developing and moving across the area. While most of the activity should be in the form of showers, an isolated thunderstorm is possible (20% or less chance). These showers are expected to continue past sunrise but should be mostly, if not completely, out of the area by this afternoon. Temperatures today will be cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight are expected to mostly be in the 50s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon (up to 30% chance) and Friday night (up to 55% chance). Storms are not expected to be severe Friday into Friday night. Rain and storm chances increase even more Saturday (30% to near 90% chance) and Saturday night (up to near 100% chance). Dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s and CAPE values will mostly range from 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg during the day on Saturday. A low-level jet may also develop over the area Saturday evening/overnight which will enhance storm development. Severe storms and heavy rainfall are still a threat with an MCS likely moving across the area Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - No big/major changes of note, with a few of the minor changes (mainly addition of a few rain chances prior to Friday night) outlined in Key Message above. - Latest trends/thoughts regarding the Saturday afternoon-night severe storm/heavy rain threat: We are still 24-36 hours away from this time frame getting into the range of most higher-res models, and as a result plenty of uncertainties remain in the finer details including most favored parts of our forecast area (CWA) along with storm intensity/threats. That being said, a glance at medium range ECMWF/GFS solutions suggest MAYBE a slightly-reduced intensity of convective environment (mainly somewhat lower CAPE/instability values) compared to 24 hours ago...especially within northern/northeast portions of our CWA. Although far too soon to "take literally", the last few hours of the 12Z RRFS (which goes through Saturday afternoon) suggests we could have at least spotty convection (maybe strong/severe?) develop over our CWA during the afternoon, while a more organized/larger- scale storm complex develops over western NE/KS by late afternoon that would then in theory track into our CWA during the evening (potential damaging wind threat). That`s honestly as much "detail" this forecaster is willing to give for an event that is still mostly 72+ hours away, but at least trend-wise, there is SOME suggestion (also supported by CSU machine-learning guidance) that our southern/western CWA may end up being more "under the gun" than our northern/eastern counties. -- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Wed. June 24..but heavily focused on tonight-Sunday) - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM: Certainly no big surprises today, as fully expected it`s been a fairly windy day by mid-June standards...with sustained north- northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH, and occasional gusts reaching 40 MPH (especially in our north). Under widespread sunshine, high temps are on track to top out low 80s north...to mid 80s central (including Tri Cities)...to upper 80s-low 90s within counties along/south of the KS border. As detailed over the last 24 hours, we have deemed grasses (fuels) to be at least slightly "too green" to justify any higher-end fire weather concerns, but with relative humidity (RH) bottoming out as low as 20-25% mainly in our far southern and western CWA this afternoon-early evening, we continue to highlight near-critical fire weather concerns in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm a shortwave trough and accompanying seasonably-strong upper level jet streak tracking through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...fueling a Moderate Risk of severe storms well to our east centered over IL/IN. Meanwhile at the surface, the main surface low pressure center (around 992 millibars) is tracking through southeast MN, with modest cold air advection/subsidence on the backside of the system driving our gusty north-northwest winds here locally. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Although mentioned as a possibility here 24 hours ago, we have now officially introduced either a "slight chance of showers" or "slight chance of sprinkles" to mainly the northern half of our CWA (as far south as roughly Highway 6) for the post-midnight hours. These rain chances are best described as minor-but- tricky, as especially the HRRR (with support from other models) paints a very narrow, west-east oriented stripe of light measurable showers across mainly our far northern counties, while other models (such as NAMNest) are more generous bringing at least spotty activity farther south into our area. Our current slight/20% rain chances in our far north may ultimately not be nearly high enough, but at least we now have some rain mention, and again, we are not talking heavy rainfall either. The narrow/banded nature of this precip chance is due to upper dynamics more typically seen during the colder season (intense upper level jet/mid-level frontogenesis). Farther south, kept the forecast dry overnight over our southern CWA/KS counties, as any "true" elevated thunderstorm activity should remain at least a few counties south of our CWA (mainly south of I-70). In other departments, winds will steadily drop off toward sunset, with gusts easing under 20 MPH most areas by 8-9 PM, and then averaging only 5-10 MPH from the north-northwest through the remainder of the night. Low temps are a little tricky depending on how abundant/thick incoming mid-high level clouds are, but have most areas bottoming out somewhere between 56-61. - THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT: First of all, those same light/pesky rain chances that start late tonight have been lingered through mid-late Thursday morning in our latest forecast...but for now simply in the form of a "slight chance of sprinkles" for our entire CWA. Confidence is just too low to introduce a measurable rain chance (PoP) at this point in time (although a FEW areas could end up picking up a few hundredths of an inch)...and confidence in location/placement is too low to "rule out" any areas either...with the HRRR mainly focused across our northern/eastern counties while the NAMNest is more broad- brushed in coverage. In summary: do not be caught off guard by s few passing sprinkles or light rain showers Thurs AM. By afternoon, high confidence in a return to dry conditions CWA-wide as clouds decrease and give way to a mostly sunny afternoon. Although not as windy as today for sure, north/northwesterly wind speeds were nudged up slightly from previous forecast, with much of the day now looking like sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts around 20 MPH. High temps were nudged up very slightly, but should still end up 3-8 degrees cooler than today...ranging from upper 70s-low 80s in most Nebraska counties, and mid 80s in our KS counties along with Furnas County area. Thursday evening-overnight, maintained a dry forecast as any possible late-night showers are most favored to develop at least slightly north or northeast of our CWA. Low temps mid-upper 50s. - FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: Although these 24 hours should be MOSTLY DRY, weak upper waves working through west-northwest flow aloft, in combination with at least modest levels of instability returning northward into our area (mainly elevated instability) has resulted in the introduction of low-end shower/thunderstorm chances for the daytime, and the continuation of chances for Friday night. Although SPC has refrained from putting any of our CWA in a Marginal Risk at this time, CAPE/deep layer wind shear appears sufficient to possibly support a few stronger storms with mainly a smaller hail threat (something to watch). Temp-wise, highs are aimed very similar to Thursday (low-mid 80s), but with slightly warmer lows Fri night mainly upper 50s-mid 60s. - SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: Already covered some ATTEMPTED convective/severe thunderstorm threat details in the "big picture" comments section above (refer to that if you skipped over it), but the bottom line is that especially the late afternoon-overnight hours remain a concern for severe storms and possibly localized flooding as as low amplitude upper wave interacts with an increasingly moist/unstable airmass marked by surface dewpoints rising into at least the mid 60s...with lower-level forcing provided by a strong southerly low level jet. Hopefully more exact timing/location/intensity details gradually become more clear as this time frame enters the scope of higher-res models over the next few days. High temps again similar to previous days...mainly low-mid 80s but with upper 80s far south/southwest. - SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Compared to 24 hours ago, latest ECMWF/GFS are more suggestive that any severe storm threat should be shunted south-through- west of our CWA in the wake of a weak cold front (likely convective-outflow driven) from Saturday night. That being said, at least low chances for showers/weak storms remain in the forecast. - MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Keeping it very broad-based/basic here, the ECMWF/GFS keep us under persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft, with occasional low amplitude waves passing by. As a result, it should be mostly dry but with occasional shower/thunderstorm chances. Severe weather wise, instability looks fairly low for Mon-Tues but MAYBE picks back up for Wednesday. Obviously a LOT of uncertainty in any kind of mid- week severe chances next week. Temperature-wise, highs all three days are currently aimed mid 70s-low 80s for most of the CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: No significant aviation hazards are expected across the next 24 hours. Skies should remain ceiling free (few to scattered) with bases not threatening any sort of non VFR conditions. Visibilities are also expected to remain >6SM. Precipitation will be highly unlikely through the night with a broad 10-20% chance after 12z (not enough confidence yet for even a PROB30 group mention at this time. Winds out of the north to northwest this afternoon will continue to gust up to 20-25kts until weakening this evening and tonight. Speeds between 0-15z are expected to remain mostly calm and variable as directions gradually spin clockwise and around towards a south-southeastely direction for Friday afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schuldt DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Stump
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