Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

733
FXUS63 KOAX 231046
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
546 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers and storms Tuesday morning (60-80%), with
  another round possible mainly for northeast Nebraska during
  the afternoon/evening (30-60%). Marginal potential for severe
  storms with this second round (level 1 of 5).

- Continued chances for showers and storms Wednesday through
  Friday (15-30%).

- Seasonably warmer temperatures return Saturday and Sunday with
  another round of strong to severe storms possible early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Increasing mid- and high-level clouds this evening as the
shortwave generating storms over western Nebraska and eastern
Colorado approaches from the west. These aren`t the storms to
watch, though as they will drift off to the southeast, well away
from our area. We`re watching storms that have developed over
northeastern WY and southeast MT which are along a cold front
that will move into our area tomorrow.

Looking at the upper-level pattern, we have broad, weak ridging
over the Rockies, with merging Polar and Subtropical Jets over
Montana and the Dakotas. The system bringing our front through
is a surface low moving out of Saskatchewan into North Dakota
and Minnesota through the day on Tuesday. With regards to the
cold front that will move through tomorrow, during the morning
we`ll see pre-frontal showers with potentially a few rumbles of
thunder move into northeast Nebraska around 9AM continuing
southeast into Omaha and Lincoln around Noon. Lingering cloud
cover will make it difficult for us to destabilize ahead of the
the arrival of the cold front, but if we do mainly northeast
Nebraska could see a rogue strong to severe storm develop along
the front as it moves through over the evening hours.
Significant limiting factors will be lack of instability as well
as weaker forcing farther south away from the surface low with
very little upper-level support over eastern Nebraska. Really
the only thing this system has for it is 35kt of 0-6km bulk
shear over northeast NE which could help to organize anything
stronger that goes up along the front. For this reason, SPC has
our area under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
storms.

This cold front will leave a remnant moisture boundary west to
east across our area on Wednesday with higher dew points
expected across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. With this
in place, a well-timed shortwave developing storms over western
Nebraska Wednesday afternoon could bring storm chances back into
our area Wednesday night through the morning on Thursday. While
the 00Z deterministic GFS shows this potential, several other
models show significant uncertainty in the location of this MCS
forecast to develop Wednesday evening, keeping our rain chances
still very uncertain overnight Wednesday night into Thursday.

Additional disturbances keep periodic chances for showers and
storms across our area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures stay
mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Going into the weekend, we see a stronger upper-level trough
push into the PacNW, amplifying ridging over the Central Plains.
This will lead to increased warm, moist air advection out of
the Gulf causing temperatures to jump back into the mid 80s for
highs on Saturday and low 90s for highs on Sunday. While storm
activity looks to stay mostly confined to our north over the
Dakotas over the weekend, we will be watching for the potential
for a 60-70kt low-level jet overhead Saturday night into Sunday.
This could produce some powerful storms for our northern
neighbors.

The upper-level trough brings a surface low through sometime
early next week, leading to a period of severe storm potential,
especially if the LLJ maintains its intensity ahead of the
front. Guidance brings this through sometime Monday or Tuesday
of next week. Certainly a period to watch as it gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and a few isolated storms are on track to move through
the area this morning into this afternoon, though should
be on a diminishing trend as they move south, so did not
include TS mentions. However, could see brief periods of MVFR
ceilings during and/or immediately following precip, especially
at OFK. Additional shower and isolated storm development is
expected this evening and overnight. They`ll be somewhat spotty
so confidence in impacts at the TAF sites isn`t high, but more
guidance is now showing the potential for development, so
including additional -SHRA mention. Otherwise, ceilings outside
of precip should be around 3500-6000 ft ago through the day
before increasing this evening. Winds will remain southerly,
around 10 kts (few gusts of 18 kts at OFK), before they become
light and southwesterly to westerly this evening and overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

509
FXUS63 KGID 231137
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of the local
  area today. Some of these storms could become severe,
  especially across areas south and west of the Tri-Cities
  during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return to the area Wednesday
  evening through Thursday night. A few strong to severe storms
  over this period cannot be ruled out.

- Seasonably cool temperatures (70s/low 80s) through the end of
  the work week with upper 80s-mid 90s returning over the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A mainly quiet night across the local area with thunderstorms
starting to intensify west of the area early this morning.
Expect these showers and thunderstorms to work their way east
over the next few hours, impacting much of the forecast area
during the morning through afternoon hours. While there isn`t a
ton of instability to work with, most CAMS flare up this
convection during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours,
especially across western portions of the area. While the
morning convection could limit the instability further this
afternoon, good shear and some breaks in the cloud cover could
allow for some more organized/stronger storms, capable of
producing large hail and strong wind gusts. As a result,
continued with the potential for hail to the size of half
dollars and wind gusts to near 70 MPH possible primarily south
and west of the Tri-cities from the late morning through mid-
afternoon hours - although the entire area remains in at least a
marginal risk for severe weather today.

Convection should then mostly wane across the local area by the
early evening hours with a weak disturbance in westerly flow
possibly firing up additional convection late tonight just south
and west of the region. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated
for the daytime hours Wednesday before the next more notable
disturbance brings another widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms back to the local area Wednesday evening through
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently through this evening...

Overall been quiet across the forecast area through the mid-
afternoon hours, with satellite imagery showing partly-mostly
cloudy skies with quite a bit of low-mid level CU around. In
the upper levels...the area sits under west-northwesterly flow,
set up between broad high pressure spread across the southern
CONUS and a couple of areas of low pressure over central/eastern
portions of Canada. Seeing a few shortwave disturbances
embedded in the main flow...one working into the southeastern
CONUS, others over the High Plains and Nrn Rockies. At the
surface, winds across the forecast area are southeasterly, with
broad high pressure over eastern NE/KS northward into the MN
region...with low pressure/troughing along the High Plains.
Radar showing a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
working east toward northern portions of the forecast
area...but the main focus of storm development is further west,
along the sfc front and upper forcing. Models continue to show
this western activity working its way east the rest of this
afternoon and evening...but are in pretty good agreement showing
it not making enough eastward progress to have much impact on
our area between the loss of daytime heating and moving into an
area with less instability to work with.

Tonight into Tuesday...

Further into the overnight hours tonight and early Tuesday
morning, models showing one of the upper level lows mentioned
above moving further east...ending up near the MT/ND/Can border
by 12Z Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to develop along
the southward extending troughing with time...and have precip
chances ramping up after 06Z, and especially after 09Z tonight.
Unfortunately, even being this close to the event...there is
still plenty of uncertainties and lowered confidence in how
activity evolves as we get into the daytime hours on Tuesday.
There are still quite a few differences between models...some
showing more one main push through on the earlier side of
things, others linger at least scattered activity around most of
the day. Because of the uncertainty, forecast precipitation
chances are pretty broad...highest PoPs are currently during the
morning hours across northern areas, with more uncertainty
further in the day. Though there are some questions with the
timing of when things arrive/move through...most models have the
brunt of activity pushing south of the CWA by evening (some are
just quicker pushing it through than others). Not out of the
question that some storms could be strong to severe, even
through the first half of the day...that potential would
increase if it`s a slower progression or there are more breaks
in precip/clouds that can allow for better instability to
develop/work with. The further south you go, the better that
potential for more instability is...thus only far SWrn portions
of the CWA are included in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area...the
rest of the area is in the Marginal Risk area. 60 MPH
wind/quarter hail would be the main threats for the earlier
activity...but later in the afternoon, storms with gusts closer
to 70 MPH and larger hail would be possible.

Wednesday on through the weekend...

Looking at the mid-late work week time frame...models showing
little overall change in the upper level pattern. Flow across
the region looks to remain largely zonal/progressive...with
periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional thunderstorm
chances to the forecast area. Didn`t make any changes to the
NBM PoPs, which are focused mainly in the late Wed night-Thu
night time frame. As we get into the upcoming weekend...current
models showing a drier trend, a bit of a break from these upper
level disturbances, even with pattern turning more southwesterly
as a larger-scale low pressure system moves onto the West
Coast.

As far as temperatures go...confidence in how temps pan out for
Tuesday is on the lower side due to the precip potential during
the day, but most spots are forecast to reach the mid-70s. The
Wed-Fri time frame look to remain in the 70s for much of the
area...with highs climbing into the weekend. Mainly 80s are
forecast for Saturday, with Sunday in the upper 80s-mid 90s for
most.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to come to an end over the next few
hours as an area of SHRAs and TSRAs moves in across the
terminals from the west. Expect near MVFR CIGS to reach KEAR by
13-14Z and KGRI by 14-15Z...with a chance for TSRAs continuing
through the late afternoon hours. CIGS are expected to become
predominantly MVFR by 23/22Z...with some light BR possible near
the very tail end of the period. Winds, outside TSRAs, will be
mostly light at less than 8 KTS out of the SE through the
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion