Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

281
FXUS63 KOAX 201740
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1240 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Today and Tonight...

Surface high pressure settled into the region overnight, with clear
skies to prevailing and little to no wind. This, in turn, allowed
temperatures to plummet into the mid and upper 30s over northeast
Nebraska, and mid 40s near the Kansas/Missouri borders by
sunrise this morning.

High pressure will slide east, as a weak upper level shortwave
and associated cloud cover moves in from the southwest. A few
spotty showers struggled to move east from central Nebraska, as
more abundant deep layer moisture remained just west of the
forecast area. Moisture is expected to finally shift eastward
this evening, allowing for a better chance of rain reaching the
surface along and south of I-80, over southeast Nebraska into
southwest Iowa (15-30%) tonight into Thursday morning.

Temperatures will rise back into the upper 50s and low 60s this
afternoon and Thursday. Lows will remain slightly warmer than
this morning, under southerly return flow, only dipping into the
low and mid 40s.

Thursday Night and Beyond...

Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, as a trough digs
into the western CONUS out of southern Canada. While the exact track
of this system is still a bit uncertain, models continue to keep the
more potent instability south of the Kansas border. Though a
couple rumbles of thunder will be possible, severe storms appear
unlikely at this time.

A weak cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early
Saturday as the trough lifts northeast, but is quickly followed by
high pressure building into the desert southwest. This will push
warmer air back into the plains for the upcoming weekend. Highs will
rise from the 60s on Friday into the low 70s on Saturday and upper
70s to low 80s Sunday. Mid to upper 80s look probable for the
Memorial Day holiday through the first half of next week.

Dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Memorial Day, before on
and off shower and storm chances return to the forecast as a few
weak waves ripple through the upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the
forecast period. FEW to SCT FL030 clouds have begun to develop
along and south of a line from KLNK to KBTA this afternoon.
Scattered rain showers, isolated weak thunderstorms, and MVFR
ceilings will begin to creep into southeast Nebraska overnight
and into Thursday morning. A slight chance (15-25%) for showers
reaches KLNK between 05-18Z Thursday. Expect MVFR ceilings will
become prevailing at KLNK shortly after 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

118
FXUS63 KGID 201733
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1233 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Frost Advisory for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and
  Nance counties will expire at 8AM this morning.

- A handful of showers will move into a few western portions of
  the area this morning. A few more showers and non-severe
  storms will move in again later this evening and overnight
  tonight (35-65% chances, concentrated south of I-80).

- Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and
  Friday. Most area can expect to see between 0.25-0.5" of
  precipitation accumulation through Friday night.

- Highs today and Thursday will stick in the upper 50s to mid
  60s followed by a gradual warming trend back to the 80s by
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026


Temperatures this morning approaching the mid 30s across a few
portions of the area north of I-80 will bring the potential for
frost formation. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Valley,
Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties through 7AM. The cooler
temperatures that were observed yesterday will continue to stick
around for the next three days as weak surface winds among mostly
overcast skies will prevent highs from warming out of the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Lows the next 3 nights should continue to fall between the
upper 30s to lower 50s, generally only warming a few degrees each
night. Higher surface pressure centered over the Plains/Midwest
region today and tomorrow will serve as the damper to the surface
winds. Light to steady winds out of the east to southeast will last
through Thursday. Speeds will primarily stick between 5-10MPH with
occasional gusts as high as 20MPH possible.

The main story in the short-term will be the potential for
precipitation that will come in in the form of several waves of
showers and non-severe thunderstorms over the next several days
(through Friday night). Starting out this morning with a few showers
crawling up from the southwest, another more widespread coverage of
showers and weak thunderstorms will push back in later tonight and
into early Thursday morning (35-65% chances concentrated south of I-
80). There is generally not enough instability out to threaten any
sort of severe weather threat (only 0-200J/kg of CAPE).

Aloft, the continuation of intermountain west troughing will keep
the area underneath a zone of weak isentropic assent paired with mid-
level CVA along the downstream side of the mid-level trough. These
features will provide continued support for developing areas of
showers and weak thunderstorms across the foothills of the Rockies
over the next few days. The waves of showers/storms will continue to
track up into portions of central Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas should
expected to see between mainly 0.25-0.5+" of precipitation through
Friday night. The best individual precipitation chances currently
lie overnight Wednesday as well as Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that
resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4
days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the
30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under
surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase
early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from
dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in
some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in
areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is
"generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season
already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard,
Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost
impact.

Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in
from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains.
Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up
0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but
instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected.

Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected
to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances
for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat
remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought-
stricken areas of western Nebraska.

Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will
trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper
level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost
a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected
to return for Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored at KGRI through TAF period. MVFR
conditions possible at KEAR around end of TAF period. Scattered
showers currently impacting KGRI/KEAR will come to an end over
the next hour. Then a break in rain is expected through
midnight, with rain showers first impacting KEAR then KGRI
through sunrise. Low VFR conditions and lowered (VFR)
visibility is possible in these showers). During the mid-late
morning hours, low VFR to MVFR clouds move into the area. The
exact coverage/location of this is uncertain, but MVFR clouds
are more likely at KEAR than KGRI. Thus have opted to include a
MVFR ceilings group at KEAR and not KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion