Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

186
FXUS63 KOAX 041938
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
138 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will redevelop overnight (70-90% chance) in
  western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska.

- Temperatures peak in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees on
  Thursday and Friday.

- Potential is increasing (5-10%) for a few strong storms to
  join in the widespread shower chances (30-50%) late Thursday
  and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Another cool and gloomy day across the area today due to a low
deck of stratus at about 1 kft AGL. There is some sun to be
found in far northeast Nebraska this afternoon. Skies over the
eastern half of the area will remain mostly cloudy to overcast
through the night. Some patchy drizzle was recorded this
morning in the Omaha metro area as a shortwave worked through
the KC metro area.

Satellite imagery reveals split flow over the central plains
with an area of diffluence directly over the cloudy skies of
eastern Nebraska. An H5 shortwave trof is pushing out of
northeast Colorado. PoPs will briefly tick up again (20%)
southeast of the Omaha metro between 8pm and 2am as forcing for
ascent increases ahead of the vort max and diffluent flow ahead
of it. Light rain would be the result. Of course this means 80%
chance of staying dry there and better chances elsewhere. Patchy
fog is expected to develop for a third night in a row. Best
chances (70-90%) look to be along and east of the Missouri
River although all areas are at threat.

Low temperatures overnight should remain at or above freezing
which will allow windshield wipers to make quick work of any
fog accumulations.

.THURSDAY...

Thursday may be the warmest day of the week for the northern
half of the CWA, depending on when Friday`s cold front pushes
through. Most locations will peak in the mid- to upper-60s. As
the upper trof approaches from the Great Basin area, southerly
winds will pick up speed through the day. They`ll pull in
increasingly moist and warm air. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%)
wait until after midnight. Elevated instability means severe
concerns (5-10% probability) will likely be limited to
hailstones of up to 1.25" with the nose of the LLJ deserving to
be highlighted as the greatest threat. Most will hear thunder at
best. QPF for those that see the showers could be a welcomed
0.5 to 1.0" inches.

.FRIDAY...

Friday`s severe thunderstorm chances are less certain for this
part of the plains, but central Iowa and Missouri may be in
trouble. Our threat will depend on the eventual timing of the
cold front and the evolution of Thursday`s convection. About
half the guidance has the front southeast of the CWA by the
time of convective initiation. The NAM, RRFS, and GFS seem to
have it out for us. If they`re right and the front were to
remain in southeast Nebraska in the afternoon hours, it will be
pushing into a highly sheared environment with a couple hundred
J/kg of CAPE capable of producing supercells.

Behind the front, we`ll see a chance of snow in northeast
Nebraska in the system`s deformation zone. Accumulations would
be light, but remain possible. There`s a 60% chance of a trace
near O`Neill, NE. As you travel southeast, that chance fades to
20% chance at KOFK and falls all the way to 0% chance by the
time you arrive at Lincoln and Fremont.

.WEEKEND AND MORE...

Temps take a step back (50s) for Saturday, but will climb
through the 60s Sunday and are progged to hit 70s by Monday.
The trof in the western CONUS will cut-off and retrograde to
Baja, California leaving our area in a quasi-zonal flow. This
will leave the area in what might be a busy pattern.
Deterministic global guidance indicates the cut-off low will
eject east by mid-week and may bring another chance of precip,
but timing and location question marks are written in a big font
in dark ink.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Morning fog has been slow to dissipate, with a longer timeline
than forecast. Have maintained IFR cigs across the area through
20Z when we expect to see some clearing in northeast Nebraska
and clouds to push closer to FL015 at KLNK and KOMA. Some light
drizzle has been reported in western Iowa and the Omaha area.
This may (30%) continue through the evening with a shower
possible in the same areas (

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

520
FXUS63 KGID 042003
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
203 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to widespread fog may develop tonight into Thursday
  morning.

- A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible Thursday
  evening/night.

- There is high uncertainty on high temperatures and placement
  of precipitation on Friday. Snow may impact portions of the
  area as well as severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An upper level trough is over the central Plains with another upper
trough over the Pacific Northwest. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are light and variable.
Skies across the area are gradually clearing from west to east. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm up into the 50s and
60s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Light south to southeast winds will be present tonight with clear to
partly cloudy skies. Fog may develop tonight due to the above
mentioned conditions. Models are not in agreement on fog development
so confidence is medium (around 50%). Patchy fog was added areawide
to the grids tonight into Thursday morning but this may need to be
upgraded to widespread dense fog with a possible advisory being
issued.

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas will increase out of the southeast to south on Thursday. A
lee surface trough will develop across eastern Colorado, western
Nebraska, and western Kansas on Thursday in response to an
approaching upper trough. Temperatures across the area are expected
to warm up into the 60s and low 70s. Upper lift from the approaching
upper trough as well as lift from an approaching cold front will
move across the area Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will
increase across the area with dewpoints reaching into the 50s across
much of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
beginning Thursday evening/night. Not expecting much in the way of
severe weather due to very low CAPE but moderate lapse rates and
atmospheric lift and high wind shear could result in a few strong to
marginally severe storms. Low temperatures Thursday night may range
from the 30s to the 50s depending on the location of the cold front.

Rain and storms may continue into the day on Friday with the cold
front moving into the area. There is much uncertainty with high
temperatures on Friday due to the timing of the front. High
temperatures on Friday may range from the 40s in the north to the
70s in the south.  High temperatures may be reached for most areas
during the morning hours depending on the timing of the front. There
will also be precipitation development behind the front but there is
uncertainty if much of the Hastings forecast area will be impacted
by the precipitation. The most likely areas to experience
precipitation will be northern and western areas. The factors that
will determine precipitation across the area will be dependent upon
the placement of the upper low as well as drier air moving into the
area. If precipitation does move into the area behind the cold
front, some of it may be in the form of snow due to temperatures
possibly dropping near or below freezing. There is even a
possibility of severe storms across mainly southeastern portions of
the area on Friday depending on the placement of the front and upper
low. Any remaining precipitation may linger into Friday night.
Temperatures are expected to cool into the 20s and 30s Friday night
behind the front.

A surface high will be present across the area on Saturday with high
temperatures in the 50s. A warm up is expected Sunday into Monday
with highs on Monday in the 70s. A cold front will bring
temperatures into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Precipitation chances
return to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings are expected to clear out of the area from west to
east this afternoon. Fog will likely develop overnight possibly
as early as 06z but more likely between 09z and 12z. It is
expected to last until around 15z - 17z. Visibilities down to
1/4 mile are possible, especially around 12z. Winds are expected
to become southeasterly by 21z and will generally be out of the
southeast to south through the end of the period with stronger
winds late tomorrow morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion