Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

791
FXUS63 KOAX 302317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
517 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold conditions persist, with Saturday morning wind chills of
  10 to 23 degrees below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
  effect from midnight through 9 AM in northeast Nebraska.

- Snow chances (50-75%) return Saturday afternoon into early
  Sunday, with most areas seeing 0.5 to 1 inch of accumulation.
  Localized areas may approach 2 inches.

- Warmer temperatures arrive Sunday into next work week, with
  highs climbing into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Tonight through Sunday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict
broad troughing over the east-central CONUS, with ridging advancing
into the western CONUS. A vorticity maxima sliding through the Upper
Midwest continues to amplify the trough and reinforce colder air
across the region. This features has also produced a few transient
convective roll snow showers earlier this afternoon, with some
additional flurries possible over the next few hours. Little to no
accumulation is expected. The cold airmass in place has kept
high temperatures confined to the teens today.

Surface high pressure will build into the area this evening,
allowing skies to clear and promoting efficient radiational cooling,
with overnight lows dropping into the negative single digits. Winds
will remain light overnight, however, as the surface high shifts
southward, a modest increase in wind will result in wind chills
falling into 15 to 23 degree below zero range across northeast
Nebraska closer to sunrise. With this in mind, have opted to
issue a Cold Weather Advisory across northeast Nebraska from
midnight through 9 AM Saturday morning. Wind chill values across
the remainder of the area are expected to remain in the 10 to
15 degree below zero range.

Snow chances return to the area on Saturday as a shortwave trough
tracking along the US/Canada border pushes an associated warm front
southward into the region. Snow chances will develop Saturday
afternoon ahead of the boundary, though model soundings indicate a
fairly dry sub-cloud layer that will initially need to be overcome
before precipitation reaches the surface. PoPs increase Saturday
evening as we work to saturate the column, with PoPs peaking in the
50-75% range. The highest PoPs reside across northeast Nebraska.
Snow will exit the area from west to east Sunday morning. Rapid
warming on Sunday as the front pushes through may briefly allow for
a rain-snow mix on the back end of the departing precipitation
shield. A few model soundings also suggest the potential for a brief
period of sleet/freezing rain to mix in. However, with
temperatures quickly rising above freezing, impacts from any
mixed precipitation are expected to be minimal.

Snow accumulations are expected to peak around 1 inch across
northeast Nebraska, with localized amounts approaching 2 inches
possible along the NE/SD border and into portions of western Iowa.
Totals decrease southward, with a roughly 75% probability of at
least one- half inch along the I-80 corridor. Strong WAA on
Sunday will push highs into the 40s for most locations, helping
to kick start the melting of the fresh snow.

Monday and Beyond...

Mid-level ridging will build into the region to start the work week,
supporting highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s on Monday and Tuesday. An
amplifying shortwave disturbance moving across the northern Plains
on Tuesday into Wednesday will briefly weaken the ridge, nudging
highs on Wednesday back into the 30s. This feature may also
introduce low precipitation chances, with PoPs around 20%. Long-
range guidance keeps the better forcing for ascent displaced from
the forecast area, supporting the lower PoPs. While light snow would
be the most likely precipitation type if this system materializes,
forecast confidence remains low in this extended time frame.

Temperatures are expected to rebound once again on Thursday as an
amplifying mid-level ridge axis advances into the Intermountain
West, allowing highs to climb into the 40s and potentially the 50s.
This warmer-than-normal pattern appears poised to persist into early
February, as both the CPC`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continue
to favor above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The scattered field of clouds at FL025-035 from earlier this
afternoon are in the process of thinning out, with any remaining
cloud cover expected to disappear as northerly winds quiet down
over the next two hours. Overnight into early tomorrow morning,
winds will shift first northwesterly, then south-southwesterly
with speeds slowly increasing through the morning. By mid day,
cloud cover will be on the increase with VFR clouds eventually
becoming MVFR at the end to just beyond the TAF period. With the
lowered ceilings will come snow chances, that will generally
last for 2-3 hours at any one location, with KOFK`s kicking off
at 00z tomorrow evening. Some of the snow could reach moderate
intensity, meaning that visibilities will likely drop into IFR
territory as snow is falling.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Saturday for NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

333
FXUS63 KGID 310017 CCA
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frigid temperatures and wind chills overnight into mid-morning
  Saturday, with sub-zero "actual" temps and wind chills bottoming
  out mainly -10 to -19 (a FEW spots could briefly touch -20, but
  areal coverage/duration of this is not expected to be great
  enough to justify a Cold Weather Advisory).

- A band of snow moves west-northwest to east-southeast across
  the area mainly Saturday afternoon-evening. Accumulations
  look to remain light, under 1".

- Warmer and dry weather arrives Sunday and continues next week
  with highs in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Snow this afternoon is currently across far southwestern portions of
the area, and will continue to move southwest out of the area.
Further north, skies are partly to mostly cloudy with breezy
northerly winds of 20-25mph.

Skies clear and winds become light this evening as an arctic high
pressure system moves over the area. Clear skies, light winds and a
very cold airmass will support temperatures dropping below zero (-2
to -8 degrees) tonight/Saturday morning. Thankfully, the light winds
keep wind chill values in the teens, and just shy of reaching
official cold weather advisory criteria. It is possible a few
isolated areas north of I-80 could reach -20 wind chills around
sunrise, but temperatures are expected to increase around the time
winds begin to increase.

Saturday...

After the frigid start, temperatures steadily climb throughout
the morning hours as southerly flow strengthens over the area
ahead of an approaching clipper system. Southerly winds gusting
20-30 MPH are expected during the late morning-evening hours,
strongest along and west of Highway 281.

A band of snow lifts into western portions of the area Saturday
afternoon as the clipper system moves into the Plains. The band will
move west to east across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours, with any lingering snow exiting eastern portions of the area
by midnight. The biggest uncertainty with this band is how far south
snow will precipitate/reach. Dry air near the surface could limit
how much snow is able to accumulate, especially across
southern/southwestern portions of the area. The highest chances to
see accumulating snow will be across northern/northeastern portions
of the area, closest to the surface low where forcing is the
greatest. Additionally, snow falling with the aforementioned
breezy winds (20-25mph) could result in a period of lower/poor
visibility. Any snow that does occur looks to remain light, with
accumulations of 1" or less.

Sunday...

Ridging builds over the Rockies and Plains on Sunday, bringing a
welcome warmup to the area along with dry weather. Highs on Sunday
will climb into the 40s and 50s, warmest across southwestern
portions of the area. This should melt most if not all of the
remaining snowpack across the area. Overall, Sunday looks to be a
very pleasant day, especially when compared to Saturday`s frigid
start.

Next Week...

Ridging to northwesterly flow aloft looks to persist throughout next
week, resulting in above normal temperatures across the area. Highs
will be in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 10s and 20s. Dry
weather is expected next week, though a passing disturbance could
bring a low chance for light precip to eastern portions of the area
Tuesday night. The warmer weather looks to stick around for a while,
with the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks favoring above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence VFR ceiling/visibility through at least the first
18-20 hours, with only a gradual increase in mid-high level clouds
mainly post-sunrise Saturday. However, the mid-late afternoon
hours will surely feature at least a low-VFR ceiling, and perhaps
at least a few hours of MVFR ceiling and MVFR/IFR visbility in
snow. Winds will be light through most of these first 15 hours,
but then became breezy out of the south from late morning onward
with gusts 20-25KT. More details follow below.

- Ceiling/visibility/snowfall details:
Extremely-high confidence VFR through at least early Saturday
afternoon, with essentially zero sky cover overnight and then only
a gradually-lowering VFR ceiling through the post-sunrise morning
hours. However, things look to turn more "interesting" anytime
after roughly 19Z KEAR/21Z KGRI, as a north-south band of lower
clouds (for sure) and perhaps steady light snow (not yet a
certainty) pushes in from the west. At the very least, have high
confidence in a low-VFR ceiling down to at least 4K ft, and an
MVFR ceiling down to around 1,500 ft. is certainly possible at
least for a few hours (along with the snow possibility). If
anything, the snow chances appear SLIGHTLY higher at KGRI than
KEAR per a few higher-res models, but this is still a bit far out
in time to carry above-average confidence. As a result, have opted
to introduce this snow potential along with MVFR ceiling and
MVFR/IFR visibility potential in PROB30 groups for now (will defer
any prevailing/TEMPO groups to later TAFs if confidence-in-
occurrence increases).

- Wind details:
Once north-northeast breezes around 10KT quickly die down this
evening, the remainder of the night into the first part of
Saturday daytime will feature very light/variable direction
breezes at-or-below 6KT. Thereafter, a gradual/steady uptick in
southerly breezes will commence especially 16Z onward, with
sustained speeds especially Saturday afternoon commonly around
15KT/gusts 20-25KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion