Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

936
FXUS63 KOAX 071105
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
605 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon
  and evening across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with
  the potential for wind and hail.

- The threat for severe weather increases slightly on Saturday
  with the potential for a complex of thunderstorms producing
  damaging winds across Nebraska and Iowa.

- Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend into early next
  week with more locations likely hitting 90 degrees on Sunday
  and Monday.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only
  a small amount reaching the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

With weak high pressure across the Ohio Valley and a surface
trough across the High Plains, southeast surface winds have held
steady tonight across central Nebraska. However, across eastern
portions of the state the winds are very light and dewpoint
depressions are only 1-4 degrees. This will set the stage for
fog/low stratus through at least the early morning. We think
there will be just enough mixing to prevent widespread dense
fog, but there could be some low spots with poor visibility. The
RAP hydrolapse is favorable for fog across far eastern NE and
western IA through sunrise.

Early morning convection is looking more likely early this
morning near or just northeast of the forecast - likely where
SD/MN/IA come together. 1000-2000 MUCAPE and ~35kts of 0-6 bulk
shear suggest the potential for a few strong to severe storms
with this early round of storms. The forcing along an advancing
cold front is better north of the area this morning. The front
is expected to make steady progress through the day, and we`ll
need to watch for development back to the southwest along the
boundary this afternoon. As it stands now, we keep most of the
PoPs in western IA (15-30%), but far eastern NE is still in
play. Of note, we raised sky cover a bit (even after the morning
stratus) because there will be a veil of smoke aloft today.
This can sometimes cause us to be 2-4 degrees too warm on high
temperatures, and it would also knock the suface-based
instability back just a bit.

Saturday still looks to bring a better chance for more
widespread thunderstorms and also an increasing risk for severe
weather with a damaging wind threat. Considerable model spread
in both the global models and hi-res convective allowing models
remain, but western IA looks more in higher confidence zone at
this point - especially for QPF totals. There is also a timing
issue with convective initiation earlier in the day, perhaps
with a weakening trend through the peak heating hours, and then
strengthening with upscale growth as storms reach their
potential once they cross the Missouri River in the late
afternoon / early evening.

After a couple warmer days on Sunday and Monday, the ridging
eases back and a more zonal flow returns with the upper jet
sagging farther south across the northern CONUS. That`ll be a
cooler and relatively wet pattern. This means early signs of
optimism for the drought stricken areas of Nebraska, Colorado,
and Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Patchy fog has developed across the region, bringing
visibilities down to MVFR and IFR levels at several locations
around the TAF sites. Areas of broken MVFR and IFR
ceilings have also developed, but should clear out shortly
after sunrise. Expect conditions to improve to VFR after 15Z
this morning. A few showers and storms are moving through far
southeast Nebraska this morning, with another round of storms
possible, mainly along and east of the Missouri River this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds will be light, under
12kts, becoming southwesterly through the morning, and
eventually northerly by Friday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-030-
     033-034-042>045-050>053-065-067-068-090>093.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

598
FXUS63 KGID 071409
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
909 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few non-severe storms have developed this morning across a
  limited central/northeast portion of the area. Lightning will
  be the primarily hazard with small hail (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion