75°F
Updated:
5/30/2026
12:13:28pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
625 FXUS63 KOAX 301031 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 531 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Nightly chances for showers and storms through the weekend into early next week, with warm and humid conditions. - A summer-like pattern setting up next week will keep warm, humid weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and storms through the week. - Potential for hotter weather just beyond the forecast period starting next weekend going into following week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 A MCV is moving north over eastern Nebraska this evening, generating the ongoing showers and occasionally flaring up new convection. Weak shear keep these storms short-lived and weak. This will continue its trek northward, not clearing our area until closer to 5AM. Another weak shortwave has been producing robust storms along a line across western and central Kansas this evening. these are mostly being forced by the nose of the low-level jet over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. We`ll be watching these storms as the boundary progresses northeastward toward our area. CAM guidance wants to pull these storms eastward at the last minute as it approaches the Nebraska state line, likely due to weakening of the low-level jet later in the night. This should keep any stronger storms from getting into our area, or if they do, should rapidly weaken. We will likely see another band of storms develop as the shortwave pivots northeast across our area, though, mostly exiting the area by 10 AM. Saturday is looking like another muggy, warm day with air as thick as pea soup. Though temperatures will peak in the low 80s, dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s are going to make you sweat. With all the moisture around, we`ll see a few isolated showers pop up Saturday afternoon/evening. Nothing severe expected. What we`re watching more closely is a more substantial trough that will lift north across our area Saturday night into early Sunday potentially bringing a few strong to severe storms into southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa around midnight Saturday night into early Sunday. Primary threats would be wind and hail, as storms will be elevated in nature. Another system to watch for Saturday night into early Sunday is a convective line forecast to develop over western Nebraska and South Dakota Saturday evening and push east toward our area overnight. Guidance has it lifting northeast following the instability gradient into eastern South Dakota, but there is some potential for storms in northeast Nebraska as well from this MCS, mainly closer to 5-7 AM Sunday morning. As the trough over the northern Rockies continues to lift north into the Dakotas on Sunday, a surface low develops over South Dakota, pulling drier air east into our area from the Southwest. The pooling of moisture along and ahead of this boundary will lead to additional shower and storm development Sunday afternoon, clearing the area after midnight as the dry line and eventually a weak cold front move in overnight. Monday should be dry through at least the daytime hours as ridging starts to build over the Central CONUS and high pressure sinks down over the region. With the surface high expanding eastward, we potentially could see a moisture stream sneak back north into our area Monday night on the western flank of the anticyclonic circulation. This could mean the development of an MCS over western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening, weakening as it continues east into our area overnight. As we go into midweek next week, we continue to see strong ridging build up just east of our area, leading to a fairly good overnight MCS pattern. Moisture streaming up the Central Plains from the Gulf will generate afternoon storms again over western Nebraska on Tuesday, developing into an MCS and pushing east into our area overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday. An upper-level trough nudges the ridge further east Wednesday and Thursday, pushing the moisture stream farther east, bringing afternoon storm potential into our area Wednesday-Friday, developing into and MCS that pushes east into Iowa overnight. A more substantial blocking ridge is forecast to build up next weekend, likely bringing hot summer conditions starting a couple weeks early. CPC is on board with this forecast, predicting a 60-70 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 524 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms is pushing eastward across the area this morning, impacting KOMA by 30/12-13Z. Conditions vary greatly, with generally MVFR ceilings prevailing and pockets of IFR to LIFR conditions under heavier showers. Rainfall will clear from west to east through the morning, bringing a return to VFR conditions at all terminals by 30/16Z. Southeasterly winds will increase through the afternoon, with gusts peaking at 20-25 kts. Another cluster of thunderstorms is expected to push across the area after 31/04-6Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
816 FXUS63 KGID 301139 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 639 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms possible across the area during the late afternoon-late evening hours though uncertainty remains on how widespread storms will be. If storms do form, they could be severe capable of producing golf ball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado. - Highs today in the 80s with southeast winds gusting 25-35mph. - Scattered thunderstorm chances continue each day with highs generally in the 80s. A few storms on Sunday could be strong- severe. && .UPDATE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 A broken band of showers and storms will continue to lift northeast across the area this morning. Behind this band showers/storms are more scattered/isolated but are likewise gradually moving northeast. Showers/storm will end from the southwest to the northeast this morning, with any lingering shower/storm exiting the area by the mid- late morning hours. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s under the influence of upper level ridging. Breezy southeast winds are expected during the afternoon gusting 25-35mph. The southeasterly winds bring steady moisture advection over the area, keeping dewpoints in the 60s despite daytime mixing. This warm and humid airmass combined with steep mid-level lapse rates (8 C/Km) will result in CAPE values of 2000-3000+ J/Kg this afternoon. A dryline sharpens this afternoon, stretching from western Nebraska to central Kansas. 00z model guidance favors two distinct areas of thunderstorm development along the dryline. The first area of development will occur in the panhandle of Nebraska this afternoon with these storms moving east-northeast across northern Nebraska during the evening- early overnight hours. The second area of development is across central/southern Kansas. These storms would lift into north/northeast Kansas during the evening hours. Inbetween these two clusters, thunderstorm development is more uncertain as forcing is weaker. Scenarios range from a line of scattered thunderstorms impacting much of the area (00z Nam3k, RRFS) to the area remaining mostly-completely dry (00z HRRR, WRF-NSSL). This spread in model guidance brings a fair amount of uncertainty on today`s severe weather potential. Regardless if storms do form in northwest KS/southwest NE, CAPE would support these storms quickly becoming severe. The biggest limiting factor on severe weather potential looks to be modest shear of 25-30kts which may limit just how strong storms are able to get. Still, the environment is supportive of storms producing golf ball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado (tornado threat depends on storms remaining discrete/isolated). This isolated to scattered band of storms will move northeast across the area during the evening-early overnight hours. While much of the area is outlined in the SPC day 1 slight risk for severe thunderstorms, current thinking is that southeastern portions of the area carry the highest chances to see a storm/severe storm. Warm weather continues on Sunday with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Dry weather is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances return during the late afternoon-evening hours as storms develop along the dryline in central-eastern Nebraska. Similar to today/Saturday if/when storms form, the environment would support these storms becoming strong- severe given CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg and shear of 25-30kts. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with above normal temperatures continuing through the forecast period. Thunderstorms are possible each day as weak disturbances move into the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 An upper level disturbance passed mainly south of the local area today. Scattered showers and a couple of isolated weak thunderstorms were observed on its northern edge, but these are mostly exiting the local area this afternoon. As this disturbance exits to the east, expect a few breaks in cloud cover through the remainder of the afternoon hours as the local area will be inbetween disturbances...with these breaks potentially allowing for a few additional showers or weak thunderstorms through early evening. Late tonight...anticipate the next upper level wave to cross the local area from the southwest. Models have been keying in on this disturbance all day and gradually increasing their areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms late tonight...primarily after midnight. While there is ample instability to work with as the disturbance crosses the local area, shear is fairly weak and widespread strong/severe storms are not expected. That said, a few pulsy stronger storms will be possible late tonight, with the general focus for the best coverage anticipated across areas primarily across our Nebraska coverage area. While this disturbance should be exiting the local area around daybreak, some models are trying to hang on to some scattered convection through the mid-morning hours, so gradually tapered off pops from west to east through around 18Z. The fairly active weather pattern of late will then continue Saturday night as the next upper level disturbance reaches the local area. Given strong instability and a weak CAP, little forcing will be needed to get some activity going by early evening, although once again, shear is weak. Given the very strong instability, could see some large hail with the strongest storms, and kept the wording for ping pong potential along with wind gusts up to 60 mph in the HWO. Thereafter...a messy west southwesterly flow pattern aloft is forecast to continue across the plains through the end of next week with periodic upper level disturbances maintaining an unsettled weather pattern across the local area along with modestly above normal temperatures in the 80s (normal high temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s for late May/early June). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions favored through TAF period. A few scattered showers may impact KEAR through 15z, though they will likely dissipate before reaching KGRI. During the late evening- overnight hours, scattered thunderstorms are possible at KGRI/KEAR. These storms could be strong-severe, though the details are very uncertain at this time(sub-VFR conditions may develop). Have indicated this potential with a PROB30 group for now. Shower/storm chances drop off before the end of the TAF period. SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds are possible throughout the TAF period, lowest within showers/storms. Southeast winds increase during the late morning hours. Sustained winds of 15-20kts with gusts of 25-30kts are expected throughout the afternoon hours. Winds gradually decrease after sunset, as gusts drop below 20kts after midnight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Davis
Navigation
