Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

429
FXUS63 KOAX 070451
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with
  highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Storm chances return to northeast Nebraska Tuesday night, with
  a strong to severe storm possible. Additional storm chances
  continue daily into Friday.

- A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Quiet conditions will prevail this evening as the area remains on
the northeastern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
Four Corners region. At the surface, a broad corridor of high
pressure extends from eastern Nebraska into the Upper Midwest. Light
winds and humid conditions will support the potential for patchy fog
overnight. However, gustier winds just above the surface should keep
fog mainly confined to low-lying and wind-protected area.

On Tuesday, mid-level ridging will continue to overspread the
region, bringing afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Later
Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance moving across the northern Plains
will help dampen the ridge across the area, transitioning the
pattern toward more zonal flow aloft. This disturbance will also
push a quasi-stationary frontal boundary into the northern Plains,
with strong to severe storms expected to develop along it across the
Dakotas. A few strong to severe storms may persist far enough south
to move into far northeast Nebraska late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) and hail (up to 1
inch) would be the primary hazards, though both instability and deep-
layer shear are expected to decreased with southward extent into the
forecast area.

Wednesday through Friday...

Wednesday through the remainder of the work week will feature
generally zonal flow aloft, with a series of shortwave disturbances
passing through the region. These waves will gradually push the
aforementioned quasi-stationary front southward over several days
while bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms along
and near the boundary.

Wednesday will be another warm and humid day, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Increasing low-level moisture transport
will push dew points into the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat
index values in the mid to upper 90s. Thunderstorm chances return
Wednesday, though the potential for afternoon/early evening
development appears rather isolated. Better chances arrive late
Wednesday night into early Thursday as stronger mid-level flow
overspreads the region and helps initiate storms along the frontal
boundary, likely positioned somewhere near east-central Nebraska
into west-central Iowa. Shear and instability do not appear overly
impressive, but should be sufficient for scattered strong to severe
storms.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Thursday behind the front, with
lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler airmass keeping highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Additional convective redevelopment is
expected late Thursday into Friday along the front, which by them
will likely be located closer to southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa as it continues its slow southward push. Once again,
ingredients remain sufficient, though not particularly robust, to
support a strong to severe storm or two. Friday highs will remain on
the milder side, generally in the mid to upper 80s, with lingering
showers and cloud cover possible along and behind the front.

Saturday and Beyond...

This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level
ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand
eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend.
Highs on Saturday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid
90s. By Sunday and Monday, most locations are expected to reach the
90s, with heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees in
some areas. A generally hot and humid pattern is expected to
continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with mostly clear skies and light
southerly winds expected to persist through the period. There is
a slight chance of fog development overnight, but expect the
chance of it impacting any given TAF site is only about 10-15%,
so it was not included in the forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

021
FXUS63 KGID 070811
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
311 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm again today.

- Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday (50-90% chance), especially
  during the evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe
  with damaging wind and large hail.

- Thunderstorms are expected redevelop for portions of the area
  on Thursday, although the coverage and intensity of storms is
  expected to be lesser than on Wednesday.

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms again on Friday, but
  drier conditions return for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today will be seasonably warm (highs in the low to mid 90s),
with a steady south wind gusting as high as 20-30 MPH in the
afternoon. Convection is expected to develop from eastern
Colorado up into the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, but this
should fizzle out well to the west. Dry conditions are expected
to prevail through Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms become likely as a cold front pushes
into the region. A few showers/storms could develop as early as
mid afternoon, but the main threat for severe weather is
expected to be in the evening hours. Exact convective evolution
is still somewhat uncertain, but models seem to support the idea
of one or more line segments moving through the area, promoting
a threat for severe wind (and hail, to a lesser extent). As
such, most of the area is now in a "Slight" severe risk (level
2 of 5).

The pattern remains largely stagnant on Thursday, although
surface high pressure nudging in from the north will keep the
highest t-storm chances in western and southern portions of the
area. Remnant cloud cover and cooler temperatures will likely
keep the severe threat lower than on Wednesday, but still a few
strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out.

The surface front continues southward on Friday. Most of the
area will likely remain dry, but a few thunderstorms could
redevelop, mainly over southern parts of the area.

Beyond Friday, precipitation chances are pretty slim through at
least the beginning of next week. A notable warmup is still on-
tap for next week, but questions remain about the magnitude and
duration of the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet today with some afternoon cumulus, south to southeasterly
winds a bit stronger than we`ve had the last couple days with
temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

The primary points to talk about in this forecast are the
Precipitation chances for mid and late week and the warm up for
the end of the forecast.

The current ridge that is building in from the four corners
region is not overly strong and a new disturbances are moving in
from the central/northern Pacific coast and will break the ridge
down. This will cause more quasi-zonal flow across the area,
allowing for the disturbances moving across the northern Plains
to impact us. The first and best chance for more widespread
precipitation, including the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along or
near a front that will be pushed east by a disturbance over the
Northern Plains. The Grand Ensemble (including GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
indicates that at least 76% of the ensemble solutions have at
least a trace at KGRI.

For Thursday, the best potential for thunderstorms actually
exists to the west of the area, primarily out in the High
Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, then after development it is
more likely to track southeast into western Kansas. The same
Grand Ensemble for Thursday at KGRI only includes 42 % that have
at least a trace at KGRI. Meanwhile, looking further west,
Thursday night shows a 59% chance of Precip greater than a
trace. This highlights the greater potential for precipitation
west of the area. That doesn`t mean it will necessarily be dry,
but it`s not as good of a chance as Wednesday.

Temperatures will be seasonal throughout the week. Highs in the
low 90s ahead of the wave on Wednesday with Thursday and Friday
briefly cooler (highs in the mid 80s).

Things change by the end of the weekend, as the overall upper
pattern changes with a ridge building into the intermountain
west. It will heat up for the week of July 13th. That being
said, watching the trends of the ECMWF Ensemble over the past 48
hours, the trend has actually been decreasing...in terms of
some of the crazy high temperatures (exceeding 100 degrees). Now
don`t take this to mean that it won`t still be a heat
wave/significant warm up, but it may not be as hot as some
guidance suggested a couple days ago. Wednesday and Thursday
July 15th-16th look to be some of the hottest days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this
TAF period. Any cloud cover passing through looks to largely
remain in the mid-upper levels...though some lower based CU may
develop during the daytime hours on Tuesday, not expecting any
ceiling restrictions. Winds are expected to remain generally
southeasterly with speeds around 10-15 MPH, though some
gusts near 20 MPH will be possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion