44°F
Updated:
11/19/2025
7:32:11pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
470 FXUS63 KOAX 192345 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 545 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of fog/drizzle is expected overnight, with visibilities dropping to near one mile after 2 AM. - Another storm system will move into the region Friday, bringing a 20-60% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska and far southern Iowa. - Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third system arrives on Monday. - Thanksgiving temperatures look slightly cooler than normal for this time of year (around 45 degrees for Omaha). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a mid/upper low pushing further into the Colorado River Valley underneath amplified heights that transition into largely zonal flow over the eastern two- thirds of the CONUS. Zooming in locally, low stratus continues to erode from west to east, helping temperatures play catch-up to some extent as highs are forecast to reach the low-to-md 50s under the peeks of sun while the dreary eastern half of the forecast area stays in the 40s. Southerly winds with a few gusts of 20 mph in far northeast Nebraska will begin shifting overnight as a frontal passage begins pushing into the area. Overnight, visibility reductions are once again the main concern as the low-level profile moistens up behind the advancing cold front, while cooling ahead of the front along a local surface high pressure axis serves as a focal point for more shallow and patch fog formation. The better bet for widespread coverage between the two areas appears to be the lower visibility behind the front where enough lift will be present for drizzle, while the pre-frontal fog take on a more patchy look, relying on radiational cooling overnight. The drizzle will be more transient, and begin to move into northeast Nebraska between 12-2 AM before arriving to Omaha/Lincoln by 6-8 AM, with fog being on the table after 4 AM for areas ahead of the front. For the remainder of Thursday, low clouds and drizzle may be slow to erode, making high temperatures a game of how much sun will fill in behind the decreasing clouds. Highs as of now are forecast to hit the 50s, but still a tick below previous forecasts. Friday and Beyond: The aforementioned mid/upper low to the southwest is forecast to eject from the lee of the Rockies Friday, deepening a surface system and bringing meaningful rainfall to the Central Plains that only clips far southern Nebraska and Iowa -- leaving most of the forecast area dry. Expect plenty of cloud cover throughout the day, with temperatures taking a dip from Thursday`s highs down to around or just below 50 degrees. The maximum amount forecast rainfall-wise will occur near the Nebraska/Kansas border and will be close to half an inch, with no snowfall expected. Saturday and Sunday are poised to be dry, and warmer as mid/upper heights increase slightly ahead of another ejecting California low underneath subtle ridging. Highs are poised to reach into the upper 50s and low 60s, making for a great weekend to get together or do outside chores ahead of a busy holiday week. This ejecting system so far has a northern lean compared to Friday, with rain overspreading the forecast area Monday and lingering into Tuesday (no snow expected). Behind this system, extra help from a clipper system diving southeast from Canada should result in a big cool down in temperatures compared to where we`ve been lately. In addition, the bottom edge of the clipper system may try and bring a sprinkle or flurry to the area Wednesday or Thursday. Highs around Thanksgiving (outside of the oven) are looking cool and in the upper 30s to low 40s, but our normals for this time of year are close to 45 so nothing too abnormal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Southerly winds transition to northwesterly after midnight, becoming light. Light winds, cooling, and moisture in the region will open the door for fog development around 09Z. Fog may cause reductions to 1 mile or less in the vicinity of KOMA and KLNK, with visibilities closer to 3-4 miles at KOFK. Fog is expected to clear out by 15-16Z with conditions returning to VFR around 17-19Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
731 FXUS63 KGID 200007 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 607 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog expected to return tonight...some of which could be locally dense again Thursday morning. - Rain chances return Thursday night as rain lifts north into the area. This band of precipitation has trended further north, and areas along and south of I-80 now expected to see some modest rainfall amounts. Highest totals will be across Kansas (up to 1"), with possibly little to no accumulation north of Highway 92 (T-0.01"). - Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s, light breezes (mostly less than 10 MPH), and sunny skies. - Changes coming next week as a more active and eventually colder weather pattern overtakes the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Fog was a little more widespread and thick across the area this morning than previously anticipated. By late morning, most locations were fog free and partly sunny skies (with lots of high level cloud cover) returned to the region. For tonight...expect another potential round of fog to develop across the local area after midnight, as light winds along with at least partial clearing are anticipated across the region. While some models like the HRRR are indicating the fog will be more widespread to start the day on Thursday, confidence is not overly high as while the winds are light they also look to have a westerly (downslope and less favorable) component. As a result, included the potential for patchy dense fog both in the forecast as well as in the HWO, but opted against a headline this early as it may end up being more patchy than some models suggest. Will need to play this by ear and see how things end up developing this evening/early night to see if a dense fog advisory once again becomes necessary. Otherwise, after at least a bit of fog to start the day on Thursday, the focus will turn to the upper level low currently circulating near the eastern California/southern Nevada border. While we have had our eyes on this system for several days, models are now swinging this area of low pressure further north towards the local area by Thursday evening as an upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes Region. This means the main band of precip should set up a bit further north, and areas along and south of I-80 are now favored to see some measurable rainfall. While there still will be a tight gradient in the band of precip that develops, confidence is increasing that the tri- cities could receive between 0.25-0.50" (about a 50% chance). The good news is that this system is relatively warm, and any precip locally should fall as rain through Friday afternoon. With the clouds and rain, however, Friday will likely remain on the cooler side, with some locations likely not climbing out of the 40s. After a cool/unsettled end to the week, a beautiful weekend continues to appear on tap for the local area. Behind Fridays exiting upper level low, ridging aloft is anticipated over the weekend as the next upper level low across the desert southwest slowly rounds the base of the longwave trough. As heights rise, so should temperatures, with mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures expected both days. As a bonus, with a weak pressure gradient under the upper level ridge, surface winds should also be light, with afternoon breezes likely less than 10 MPH. As with the first system Tomorrow night/Friday, the trajectory of the subsequent upper level low early next week has trended further north in both the operational runs of the GFS/EC. Therefore, while official pops with this system are on the low side (10-30%), they may ultimately be too low as the vast majority of the EC ensemble members are indicating measurable precipitation along with about 50% of the members of the GFS. Again, given the origin of this system, the chance of any snow early next week looks low. Beyond this system, however, the upper level ridge breaks down, and much cooler air and an active weather pattern in progressive northwest flow returns to the area Thanksgiving eve and beyond. Still too early to predict the first measurable snow, but things are looking more promising towards the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Potentially complex and impactful next 12-18 hours due to low CIGs and/or VSBYs. Expect decreasing high clouds and winds this evening. The weakening winds and clearing skies could set the stage for some fog develop around/after midnight - though the exact extent/coverage and severity remains uncertain. Seems quite plausible at least MVFR VSBYs will develop late overnight, and it`s possible they could fall to IFR levels. Some of the latest model guidance seems to keep the worst of this fog just S of the terminals - but am hesitant to buy into this solution fully at this time. Separate from the fog development potential after midnight will be a southward moving deck of LIFR/IFR CIGs and at least MVFR to IFR VSBYs along and behind a weak cold front. Uncertain if this will be low CIGs and VSBYs OR primarily low CIGs...but either way, IFR to LIFR conditions appear likely in the 13Z to 16Z or 17Z time frame before some improvement for the afternoon. Winds will transition from light and variable overnight to N to NE behind the front Thu AM at 6-10kt. Overall confidence is Medium. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Thies
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