Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

042
FXUS63 KOAX 131127
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30 to 45% chance for light rain today west of a line from West
  Point to Lincoln, and lower chances (15 to 20%) east. Highs
  reach the mid 50s to low 60s with gusty 20 to 25 mph northwest
  winds.

- Lingering sprinkles/flurries early Wednesday across our far western
  areas. Gusty winds subside by the late afternoon with cooler
  temperatures (30s to low 40s).

- 15 to 35% chance for snow in northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa late Thursday into Friday. Strong northwest winds
  gusting to 45 mph expected Thursday and Friday which could
  lead to travel impacts (10 to 40% chance) from snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Mid to high level based clouds have filtered in from the northwest
this morning ahead of an approaching disturbance. The clouds
have kept temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most
locations, while winds have started to turn gusty across our
northern areas.

08z RAP objective analysis shows a strong H5 jet on the northeast
periphery of the western CONUS ridge. Several shortwaves and their
respective vort maxes are seen riding the northwesterly flow over
the Dakotas into Minnesota and central Manitoba. As these
disturbances fuse together and track southeast, a ribbon of
vorticity will swing southward into much of Nebraska. The attendant
vorticity advection should help force some light rain showers today.
BUFKIT soundings show less low-level dry air compared to 24 hours
ago with low-level saturation being achieved primarily across
our western areas. Drier air is still seen though along and east
of the Missouri River from near H7 to the sfc which could limit
rain potential. For this forecast package, have kept highest
PoP chances across northeast Nebraska and our far west (30-45%)
while lower chances (15 to 25%) for rain encompass the rest of
the forecast area. PoPs gradually increase in coverage and area
from 17z today through at least 00z. QPF amounts remain low with
most areas receiving less than a few hundredths of an inch.

Highs today are forecast to reach the mid 50s for most areas, while
low 60s may occur over the far south. Cloud cover could certainly
result in a few areas underperforming in terms of high temps today.
The aforementioned mid level wave has already induced a strong sfc
low, and while the feature stays well to our northeast, the
associated front will swing through the region as a tight pressure
gradient sets up. While mixing may be hampered a bit due to the
increasing cloud cover, forecast soundings continue to show good
mixing into the 35 to 40 kt jet max rounding the H8 low. Winds will
become gusty this afternoon from the northwest at 20 to 25 mph,
gusting up to 35 mph. The strong winds may lead to areas of high
fire danger for areas that don`t receive wetting rainfall.

A few CAMs show spotty showers over our far west into Wednesday
morning. Have kept 10 to 14% chance of sprinkles from 00z through
12z Wednesday, and also could see a few flurries mix in as
temperatures cool to the low to mid 30s. The gusty winds will linger
into Wednesday, tapering off in the late afternoon as sfc ridging
finally moves into the area. Highs only reach the 30s to low 40s as
we`ll be behind the front, while lows cool to the teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Northwesterly flow at H5 continues for Thursday and Friday as
another series of waves approach the area from Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. A weak H8 baroclinic zone will lift through our area
Thursday, helping warm temperatures to the upper 30s to low 50s in
our far west. This warm up is short lived as a front associated with
the first wave and resultant sfc low sneaks through Thursday
afternoon. At this time, the bulk of the Q-vector convergence and
resultant lift is seen to our north and east. Latest NBM guidance
has shifted 15% and greater PoPs north and east of area for Thursday
where the bulk of QPF is seen.

As the front moves through, the secondary wave over the Dakotas is
progged to deepen, helping strengthen the existing sfc low. Similar
to today, the sfc low is forecast to stay well to our northeast over
the Great Lakes area, but the strengthening pressure gradient,
approaching H8 jet max and steepening lapse rates from resultant CAA
should lead to strong wind gusts, particularly from Thursday evening
into much of Friday. Latest deterministic NBM has widespread 35 mph
gusts over our CWA and a few isolated 45 mph gusts in far northeast
Nebraska. Latest ensemble guidance, particularly the EPS, shows
higher probabilities (40 to 85% chance) for wind gusts greater than
45 mph for much of eastern Nebraska. GEFS and EPS mean wind gusts
range from 45 to just below 55 mph over northeast Nebraska.

The other concern from this feature is the snow chances. Latest NBM
has shifted PoPs more to the north and slightly decreased chances
(15 to 35% chance), while the greatest chances remain in far
northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa. Deterministic solutions
from the global models show the main precip threat originating from
the backside of the strong sfc low. The LREF continues to suggest
the best threat for precipitation in our far northern and eastern
areas with around a 50 to 80% for a tenth of an inch or greater for
snow. Probabilities significantly taper off for higher snow
amounts, with a 10 to 30% chance for at least 0.5 inches of snow
in our far north and east. For what it`s worth, latest GFS
forecast soundings seem to suggest more of a convective snow
shower nature to the precip.

Regardless of snowfall amounts, any snow showers that develop will
lead to poor visibilities and areas of blowing snow, impacting
travel. The latest probabilistic WSSI-P shows at least a 10 to
40 percent chance for minor travel impacts over our far north.
Those with travel plans late Thursday into Friday will want to
pay attention to the forecast and stay tuned for the latest
updates.

Lingering snow showers taper off by Saturday with dry conditions
expected Sunday and Monday. Highs cool Friday to the 30s behind the
front, and to the mid 20s to low 30s Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures rebound Monday to the 30s to 40F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all three terminals this morning
with overcast skies at or above 25kft. VFR conditions are
forecast to continue for the rest of the TAF period. A few rain
showers remain possible late this morning into the afternoon
(30-35% chance) at KOFK, with lower chances (15-20%) at KOMA
and KLNK. Given the low probabilities for rain due to low level
dry air, have left out of TAF for this issuance.

Winds will become gusty after 15z and remain that way for much
of the TAF period from the west northwest. Expect prevailing
winds of 12 to 18 kts and gusts of 20 to 27 kts at all three
terminals. Winds become more northerly after 04z. LLWS lingers
at all three terminals until mid morning today.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

541
FXUS63 KGID 131137
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today. Near-critical fire weather conditions
  are expected near and west of Highway 283 (Dawson, Gosper,
  Furnas Counties).

- Rain showers arrive from the north late this afternoon into
  this evening. A few snow showers are possible Wednesday
  morning, but no accumulation is expected.

- Very windy Friday. Widespread gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH
  are expected, and gusts over 60 MPH are possible in some areas
  (30-60% chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Today remains warm, but will be noticably breezier than
yesterday. As such, western portions of the area may see near
critical fire weather conditions (RH 20-25% and northwest winds
gusting over 30 MPH at times.

The potential for measurable rain has increased with the system
arriving from the north today. Areas near and north of I-80 have
the best chance (20-40%) to see 0.10" or more, but the entire
area has a chance to see at least some rain. A few sprinkles are
possible as early as 2-3pm, with more widespread rain arriving
from the north in the 5-6pm timeframe.

The trend has also been for precipitation to linger longer into
Wednesday morning. With temperatures falling, a few snow showers
could mix in, but little to no accumulation is expected.

Winds gradually decrease through the day on Wednesday, but
a front pushes through on Thursday, leading to another uptick
in winds (gusts 25 to 35 MPH).

On Friday a shortwave trough dips southward across the central
U.S. A few snow showers are possible with this system, but the
winds will likely be the more notable hazard. Global ensembles
continue to trend upward with the wind potential, and the EPS
mean wind gust is now near 60 MPH in northwestern portions of
the forecast area. As mentioned above, the NBM now shows a
30-60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 60 MPH for at least parts
of the area. If this trend continues, a High Wind Watch may
become appropriate.

Friday and Saturday still look to be the coldest days, but
Sunday and Monday have also trended a bit cooler as well.
Regardless, global ensembles still favor at least a brief warmup
before another push of cold (and maybe some precipitation) late
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

North to northwestelry flow aloft is anticipated through the
period with multiple (mostly dry) disturbances passing by the
region. The most impactful weather of the week will likely be
the very strong winds anticipated later this week, with gusts to
55 MPH possible on Friday.

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, plenty of cirrus
can be streaming across the local area in northwest flow. Expect
this cloud cover to continue through the overnight hours, which
combined with steady westerly winds, will help keep up low
temperatures mostly in the mid-30s to start the day on Tuesday.
These temperatures will be very close to what are normal highs
for mid-January.

For tomorrow afternoon, expect a cold front to rapidly push
south across the area during the afternoon hours with a weak
disturbance aloft helping aid in the development of a few light
showers/sprinkles. Overall, QPF amounts look very minimal (T-a
few hundredths of an inch of precip), but most models have some
light QPF being generated across the local area, and increased
pops just a bit as fully expect some showers and sprinkles
around much of the local area mainly during the afternoon/early
evening hours...although some light showers/sprinkles/flurries
could extend across the northern parts of our forecast area to
start the day Wednesday as indicated in the global models.

Beyond Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes even more
amplified as high pressure expanding north across the west coast
results in a more northerly flow pattern across the plains. As
a result, after a brief uptick in temps Thursday, a more
prolonged stretch of cooler weather returns Friday through
Monday before the longwave trough attempts to shift further
east towards the middle of next week, when a more
northwesterly/mild flow returns. In the meantime, as this push
of colder air makes its way across the area on Friday, expect a
very windy afternoon across the region and will need to continue
to monitor as wind gusts to 55 MPH currently look like the most
impactful weather of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

BKN high clouds continue to move into the area from the north
today. Northwest winds will increase with gusts over 25kts
expected at times. Rain arrives from the north this
afternoon...possibly as early as 20Z, but more likely after 22Z.

There is a 30-50% chance for MVFR ceilings tonight, mainly in
the 06-12Z timeframe. Spotty rain showers (possibly mixed with
some snow) will continue in this timeframe.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion