Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

901
FXUS63 KOAX 210419
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1019 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy tomorrow, with gusts out of the southwest at 25-35 mph
  developing late-morning, lasting through the afternoon.

- Temperatures will warm up into the 50s next week, with 60s
  forecast by Christmas day.

- Dry conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features largely zonal flow that
is only slightly depressed heading into the Great Lakes, while only
mid and high clouds waft along the NE/KS and IA/MO borders locally.
Northwesterly winds that were gusting to 25-30 mph late this morning
have trended lighter, with a wind shift poised to send directions
southwesterly and light overnight into early tomorrow. This
morning`s warm conditions won`t be reproduced tonight/tomorrow
morning, as we clear out almost completely aside from a few
stray high clouds that will allow for radiational cooling to
occur and drive temperatures down into the low 20s.

Tomorrow, the low-level thermal profile will get a boost as the
surface pressure gradient tightens and allows for warming
southwesterly winds that will gust in the 25-35 mph range, with the
strongest wind gusts across northeast Nebraska. If temperatures
over-perform the current forecast by a good margin (on the
order of 5 degrees above the forecast 45-49 degrees) we could
flirt with increased fire danger. Bias corrected guidance like
the NBM are still planning on lighter winds compared to the
forecast while there is upward potential to gust speeds
according to the HRRR/RAP. By late evening, winds will be
trending downward and slightly increased cloud cover to start
the night will keep lows from dipping too far, and should have
them hovering near to just above freezing at their lowest.

Monday and Beyond:

To start the work week the mid/upper zonal flow from the weekend
should transition into ridging centered over the Great Plains and
the jet stream`s axis will have been pushed up to the ND/Canada
area. As a result, the temperatures during the week will have folks
considering celebrating Christmas dinner outside rather than huddled
next to a fire. Highs that were in the 40s for Sat/Sun will give way
to temperatures in the 50s, with the warmest day of them all being
Christmas. Chances for rain will also be in short supply, as any
passing chances for rain get relegated north of the area, closer to
the main jet stream axis. How warm are we thinking Christmas is
going to be? Here is what we have as of now, compared to the records
for Omaha, Lincoln and Norfolk:

     .....Fcst..Record.....
Omaha    61     57 (1946)
Lincoln  65     65 (1889)
Norfolk  64     63 (1963)

By the time the weekend arrives, precipitation chance will be on the
increase as action along the Pacific Coast trends southward and some
form of trough sneaks between what will be a bifurcated flow
pattern. Agreement on exactly what it will look like and when it
arrives is pretty poor as of now, but we should see something in the
form of rain with snow being a long shot due to the warmer pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFr conditions are likely through the TAF period. Light south
winds overnight will increase with gusts at all sites starting
between 15 and 18Z. Gusts will taper off after 23Z or so, with
LLWS developing between 1500 and 2000 feet AGL where
southwesterly winds will increase to 45-52 kts by 06Z, and
likely become stronger after 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

837
FXUS63 KGID 210533
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1133 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very mild Christmas week across south central Nebraska and
  north central Kansas with highs largely in the 50s and 60s.

- No precipitation is forecast and no weather-related travel
  impacts are expected during the week ahead.

- High temperatures were raised a few degrees on Christmas Day.
  Potential record warmth with a 70%+ likelihood of breaking
  the record high at Grand Island around an 80% chance of doing
  the same at Hastings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Surface high pressure is moving across the region and will help to
quickly spin winds down the rest of the afternoon. That should help
temperatures drop nicely this evening. Southerly winds will develop
overnight and may hold temperatures up a few degrees though we will
still be deep into the 20s with a very dry airmass. Those southerly
winds will continue all day Sunday with gusts in the afternoon of 20
to 30 mph by afternoon. That may push temperatures up a few degrees
from today but it will probably feel colder than today. On Monday, a
surge of warm air will move into the region added by a solid
westerly downslope wind the H85-700 layer. Surface winds will turn
more southwest and skies look largely sunny. All that will spell
highs back into the upper 50s and 60s. For comparison, normal high
temperatures range from 37 to 43 degrees, north-to-south, across
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.

As has been well discussed, the week ahead is dry and mild, though
there some minor ups and downs temperature-wise due to two or three
frontal passages. After a very warm Monday, the first "cold" front
moves late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to
the north with some cold advection and drop high temperatures on
Tuesday back to the 50s. That is still 15-18 degrees warmer than
normal. Warm advection, dry conditions and a more favorable westerly
component wind will push temperatures back up again Christmas Eve
and Christmas Day. Christmas Eve might be a stretch for records (in
the middle 60s) but Christmas Day highs in the 60s, or even lower
70s in north central Kansas put record high temperatures in jeopardy
for sure. The wind is a bit more westerly Christmas Day which will
aid the warm up further. One nice thing is wind speeds are "tame"
for late December and likely to hold mostly under 15 mph both
Christmas Eve and Christmas, though could pick up a bit Christmas
afternoon ahead of an approaching front. The very dry antecedent
conditions will help promote wider diurnal ranges. So while we could
be also be flirting with record warm overnight lows, we may also
cool a bit more overnight than currently forecast due the dry ground
conditions and fairly light wind regime. We will have to watch cloud
cover, as even thin high clouds can have a couple degrees off the
warmth of the day this time of year. Overall, its hard to find a
better Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in terms of pleasant weather
and no travel impacts for south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas.

After Christmas, we see the next front as early as Friday, with
potentially another one on its heels for Saturday. It is still mild
Friday and Saturday but the trend is to turn cooler next weekend. In
fact, the front on Friday may drop temperatures to colder levels
then the current forecast of 50s...as there are signs of a nice
backdoor push of cold air with the most recent deterministic models
runs. This will be something to watch and refine. Eventually, its
does look colder, at least closer to normal, by New Year`s Day.

It dry and going to remain dry. Multiple model ensembles suggest a
less than 50-50 chance of total precipitation of 0.10" (a tenth)
during the next 10-15 days! Have said that, while the week ahead
does look dry, there have been some hints of light precipitation
potential around December 28-29-30 per EC/GEFS/Canadian ensembles as
a possible weather system migrates across the southern Plains. Its
early and any precipitation potential looks very low end, and in
liquid form at this time. Whatever this system ends up being, it
could signal a slightly more active weather pattern the first
week of January.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to retain through the period with
only a few mid-to-high level clouds breaking in and out of the
area. Winds have recently settled out of the south tonight,
blowing between 5-10kts. These steady winds will last through
the first part of the morning until picking up to between
10-15kts and gusting as high as 20-25kts for much of the day.
Gusts dropping off this evening will coincide with the addition
of 40-50kts of LLWS out of the south to southeast after 1z. Dry
conditions are also expected to retain across the period.




&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Record highs Monday and Tuesday are 70ish or higher for Hastings
and Grand Island and not likely to be broken.

Below are the records for December 24, 25 and 26.

Record High (Maximum) Temperatures     |Current Forecast

Grand Island, NE

December 24th: 64 in 2021              | Forecast: 60
December 25th: 62 in 1999,1963,1922    | Forecast: 68
December 26th: 64 in 2005              | Forecast: 59
---------------

Hastings, NE

December 24th: 66 in 1933              | Forecast: 60
December 25th: 62 in 1999,1950         | Forecast: 68
December 26th: 65 in 2005              | Forecast: 58

_________________________________________________________

Record High (Minimum) Temperatures     |Current Forecast

Grand Island, NE

December 24th: 34 in 1936              | Forecast: 33
December 25th: 34 in 1959              | Forecast: 39
December 26th: 38 in 1931              | Forecast: 35
---------------

Hastings, NE

December 24th: 33 in 2005,1955         | Forecast: 33
December 25th: 34 in 1922              | Forecast: 39
December 26th: 38 in 1959              | Forecast: 36

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Stump
CLIMATE...Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion