Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

238
FXUS63 KOAX 192318
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northeast Nebraska today and
  the entire area Monday. Expect heat index values up to 105 to
  110. Overnight heat indices will remain between 75 to 80.

- There is a low (10-20%) chance of storms this afternoon, later
  tonight, and Monday afternoon through evening. A few storms
  could be strong to severe, especially Sunday night and Monday
  afternoon through evening.

- Cooler weather returns by the middle of the week, with high
  temperatures falling back into the 80s. There will be
  increasing chances for showers and storms Wednesday night into
  early Friday also.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A stalled front is draped across far eastern Nebraska this
afternoon. This separates the worst of the heat from slightly
cooler and drier conditions today. Across northeast Nebraska,
temperatures push into the upper 90s to near 100 with heat
indices approaching 105 this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in
effect due to these expected heat indices. Elsewhere in Nebraska
remains hot in the mid 90s. Slightly cooler weather in the
upper 80s to low 90s is in place over western Iowa.

A weak disturbance rounds the ridge later this afternoon and
evening. This may initiate an isolated shower or thunderstorm
along the front, but chances are low (10-20%). Additionally, a
weakening cluster of storms moving out of the Dakotas may clip
portions of northeast Nebraska later tonight. Again this threat
remains low (10-20% chance). This weakening cluster could also
produce strong winds.

The peak of the heatwave begins tonight into Monday. The stalled
front lifts north slightly tonight. Overnight temperatures
struggle to fall through the mid 70s with heat indices between
75 to 80 anticipated for many. This offers little relief before
the afternoon heat. Speaking of heat, the ridge becomes centered
over the region helping to push temperatures to between 100-105
for much of the area with heat indices between 105 to 110. As a
result, an areawide Heat Advisory is in effect for Monday.

On top of the heat is the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms. A digging trough over the Great Lakes region
helps push a cold front into northern portions of the area late
in the afternoon. While forcing may be limited, we should easily
reach convective temperature, so an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the front remains possible during the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. The better chance of
thunderstorms will be along the front near and after sunset
into the early overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens
and better forcing arrives. The overall threat remains low
through this time (10-20% chance), but any thunderstorms that
form could be strong to severe. The main concern with any
thunderstorms would be damaging winds due to the high cloud
bases and lower relative humidity below cloud base as a result
of the heat.

Quieter weather returns on Tuesday as a cold front pushes south
through the region. Temperatures return to near normal in the
upper 80s and low 90s as a result. Even cooler weather settles
in during the second half of the week. These cooler temperatures
will be aided by increasing rain chances and cloud cover as
several weather systems round the ridge and pass near the area.
Temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s will be a welcomed
change. Currently, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
is forecast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Widespread rain chances
between 50-70% are anticipated. Unfortunately, the ridge may
begin to build once again by next weekend as a gradual increase
in temperatures and a decrease in rain chances is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period. A few isolated
showers/storms remain possible early in the period, but chances
at TAF sites remain around 15%. There are hints of fog
development overnight with OMA most likely to see anything, but
latest guidance suggests higher chances will remain south and
east. Expect southerly/southeasterly winds early in the period
to become southwesterly Monday morning. Speeds should generally
remain below 10 kts, but could see a few 15 kt gusts. Finally,
expect showers and storms to develop in northeast Nebraska
around 21Z and push south, but confidence in coverage and exact
timing at OFK remains too low to include mention at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

152
FXUS63 KGID 192340
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat Advisory in effect 10am-10pm Monday with heat index
   values up to 108 degrees.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible (15-20%) along and
  north Highway 92 in Nebraska late Monday afternoon/evening.

- Highs in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south) on Tuesday
  with northerly winds gusting 20-25mph.

- More widespread shower/storm chances (40-70%) arrive Wednesday
  and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s, warmest across
north central Kansas. Heat index values are expected to top out
around or slightly over 100 degrees. Scattered thunderstorm chances
look to remain east/south of the forecast area this afternoon-
evening. Lows tonight will be in the 70s with clear skies and light
winds.

Monday...

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the forecast period as
highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Hot temperatures combined
with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees will result in heat
index values in the mid to upper 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the entire area from 10am to 10pm Monday.

During the late afternoon-early evening hours, a cold front pushes
into far northern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is possible (15-20%) along this front. Any
storm would likely come to an end around sunset as stability
increases. Areas with the highest chance to see a storm will be
along and north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. Shear looks to be higher
than on previous days, and could support a storm on the stronger
side (gusty winds possible). The cold front steadily pushes south
across the area overnight, though lows remain in the 70s overnight.

Tuesday...

The cold front will reach portions of north central Kansas around
sunrise on Tuesday. Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest
transitions the area to a northwesterly flow pattern. Breezy winds
are expected on Tuesday behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south).

Wednesday Onwards...

Rain chances return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday as a
series of disturbances traverse through the northwesterly flow
aloft. Wherever cloud coverage and lingering convection sets up,
highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be sightly cooler, in the 80s.
At this time models support two waves of showers/storms moving
through the area: one Wednesday-Thursday AM which favors
northeastern portions of the area, and a second Thursday
evening/night which favors more central portions of the area.
There`s still plenty of time for things to change, and the exact
track of these rain chances will become clearer as we get closer in
time. Otherwise temperatures begin to climb back above normal as we
move into next weekend with ridging rebuilds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Winds will continue to
be light and southerly across the area before becoming light and
variable. On Monday winds are expected to be southwesterly and
generally light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion