Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

391
FXUS63 KOAX 091056
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
556 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will slide south across Nebraska and Iowa
  Saturday. The best chance for showers and storms will be along
  and ahead of the front, in far southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa, Saturday afternoon and evening (20-40%).

- Expect a return to the 80s Monday through Thursday, possibly
  reaching the low 90s by the end of the week.

- Our next widespread chance for rain won`t arrive until
  Thursday (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Tonight through Sunday...

Steep lapse rates and weak instability aided in the development of
patchy sprinkles this evening, behind a weak boundary moving towards
the southeastern corner of the CWA. A layer of near-surface dry air
managed to prevent the majority of precip from reaching the surface.
Shower coverage and winds diminished as we moved into the overnight
hours, with dry weather prevailing. Temperatures will remain near
normal overnight, dropping into the mid and upper 40s.

Westerly winds return Saturday morning, advecting warm air into the
region ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will rise
into the lower 80s ahead of the front, with low to mid 70s expected
over northeast Nebraska. CAMs suggest spotty showers will try to
develop over northeast Nebraska, behind the front, by late morning.
However, moisture-starved air below these showers will likely allow
little more than sprinkles to reach the surface. A better chance for
showers and a few rumbles of thunder can be expected along and ahead
of the boundary Saturday afternoon and evening. While a general lack
of instability may inhibit the development of typically
strong/severe storms, inverted-V forecast soundings suggest a few
strong wind gusts may be possible below any showers or storms that
do develop.

Precipitation chances will dwindle across southeast Nebraska through
Saturday evening. High pressure settles in behind the front for
Sunday, keeping us dry and mostly sunny with highs in the 70s.

Monday and Beyond...

A midlevel low will move across southern Canada, into the Great
Lakes early next week, dragging another surface cold front through
the region. Strong southerly winds will draw warmer air back into
the Central Plains Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures to rise
back into the low to mid 80s. While current model runs suggest the
best moisture with this system will likely remain well to our east,
a few showers and storms could skirt across eastern fringes of the
forecast area Monday night through early Tuesday morning.

A ridge of high pressure looks to develop over the southwestern
CONUS through the upcoming week, allowing high temperatures to
remain in the 80s, and perhaps the low 90s. Longer range solutions
hint at a low pressure system moving through the northwestern CONUS
Thursday, which could effectively squash the ridge and bring a
chance of showers to the forecast area Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Light winds early this morning gradually strengthen out of the
west to northwest through the remainder of the morning. A
developing weather system is approaching the region, increasing
cloud cover. VFR conditions are expected with cloud bases
between 8 to 12 kft. Widely scattered showers are anticipated
this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Very dry air in the
lower levels of the atmosphere should prevent much of this from
reaching the ground. LNK has the greatest chance of showers near
the terminal later this afternoon, but no aviation impacts are
anticipated. Isolated thunder can`t be ruled out but is
unlikely. Winds will quickly become northwesterly and then
northerly late this afternoon and evening as the cold front
moves southeast through the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

026
FXUS63 KGID 091046
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
546 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today
  into tonight, although many areas, especially north of I-80
  will remain dry.

- There is a low chance (5%) for storms to become severe, mainly
  southwest of a line from Cambridge, NE to Mankato, KS.

- Beyond today, rain chances look bleak until at least
  Thursday/Friday.

- Fire weather will become the primary concern next week as
  hot, dry, and breezy conditions return to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

CAMs show a few pre-frontal showers developing late this
morning, with increasing coverage of showers and t-storms this
afternoon and evening as the front moves into the area. That
being said, many areas, especially north of I-80 will remain dry
through today/tonight. Convective parameters look similar to
yesterday, with less than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but ample deep-layer
shear. As such, most storms will be non-severe, but a few could
become strong to severe in southwestern portions of the area.
High cloud bases would support downburst winds as the primary
threat, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out
with effective shear on the order of 30-40kt. The primary
timeframe for strong to severe storms would be 4-9pm. A few
showers could linger late Saturday night, but should depart the
area near or shortly after sunrise on Sunday. All said and
done, areas near and south of the state line are most likely to
see measurable rainfall, but even there it is unlikely to be
anything more than 0.10-0.25".

Sunday will likely be the coolest day of next week. Highs are
expected to reach the low 70s, which is about normal for this
time of year, but the rest of the week will feature highs in the
80s and 90s. There is high confidence in dry conditions through
at least the middle of the week. And even after that, global
ensembles strongly favor below-normal rain totals through at
least May 20th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Widespread cumulus developed across the region this afternoon
as temperatures climbed into the mid to upper 70s. This high
based CU has been fairly shallow, with no precipitation being
observed across the region. For tonight, expect this diurnally
driven CU to rapidly diminish around sunset, with mostly clear
skies returning overnight. These clearing skies should allow for
good radiational cooling, but with light westerly winds
providing some mixing/warmth, expect similar temperatures
overnight as we saw to start the day Friday.

Increasing westerly winds are then expected across the region
on Saturday ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the NE/KS
state line late in the afternoon. This front should provide
ample forcing for a line of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening, with a small chance for a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm across portions of north central
Kansas late in the day before the front pushes southeast of the
local area. Current thinking is the greatest threat for any
stronger storms will be during the 4-10 PM time frame, with
wind gusts being the primary concern given the atmospheric
profile. That said, despite relatively un-impressive instability
values, good shear could promote a few more organized
thunderstorms capable of producing nickel sized hail as well.
Latest mesoscale models definitely focus the better looking
convection across our Kansas counties, but a second line of
(non-severe) storms in northwest flow coming off the high plains
Saturday night could bring at least some light precip to our
Nebraska counties as well.

Behind this front, a more seasonable airmass will settle in
across the area for Mother`s day, with high temperatures in the
lower 70s and light northerly winds combining to make for a
rather nice afternoon. Thereafter...the upper level ridge across
the intermountain west will shift east to start next week,
likely marking the start of a prolonged period of above to well
above normal temperatures with limited precipitation chances
starting on Monday. As a result, expect several near critical to
critical fire weather days across at least parts of the local
area next week, with likely dry weather prevailing through at
least the end of the week. While the current CPC outlook for
week 2 slightly favors above normal precip across the region,
there is a strong signal that above normal temperatures will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored through the period. Cloud cover will
increase today, but should remain above 7kft. A few showers are
expected to move through the I-80 corridor this morning and
early afternoon, followed by another round of showers late this
evening. A few rumbles of thunder are possible during the
afternoon, but the probability for this is too low to include in
the TAF (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion