Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

509
FXUS63 KOAX 140459
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1159 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming
  week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- A more active weather pattern looks to return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Tonight and Tuesday...

High pressure continues to reign over the region, keeping us warm
and dry. Temperatures generally reached the mid 80s and low 90s
Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 60s. Patchy
fog will be possible across parts of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, especially in low lying areas, where crossover
temperatures are reached and winds diminish.

Any fog that does develop should burn off shortly after sunrise
Tuesday. Highs will be similar to Monday`s, perhaps a couple degrees
warmer in the upper 80s and low 90s.

Friday and Beyond...

Temperatures continue to ramp up as we head into the latter half of
the week. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s by Friday
and Saturday and continue through the weekend. Meanwhile, overnight
lows are forecast to remain in the lower 70s, providing little
relief from the daytime heat. While certainly not a slam dunk, heat
headlines may need to be considered Friday through Sunday.

Precipitation chances finally begin to creep back towards the
forecast area late this weekend. Low pressure will finally begin to
flatten the ridge as it moves into the Great Lakes region.  While
exact timing remains uncertain, this system will drag a cold front
through the forecast area, bringing cooler temperatures and at least
a slight chance for showers early next week.

Behind the front, northwesterly upper level flow returns, bringing
more active weather/rain chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Clear skies and light
south to southeast winds continue tonight. Very patchy morning
fog is expected, but aviation impacts are unlikely. Wind speeds
increase slightly during the afternoon. Skies remain mostly
clear.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

682
FXUS63 KGID 140742
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Officially a dry forecast until early next week, but could
  there may be at least a small chance for spotty rain Thursday
  afternoon.

- Seasonally warm temperatures through mid-week but temperatures
  will be be on the rise and peak over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Upper level ridging remains entrenched across the Northern
Plains early today. The center of the high shifted east into
western Minnesota based on the evening upper air analysis.
The surface analysis looks almost the same as last night with
high pressure over Iowa/eastern Nebraska and a bit more steady
and stronger southerly flow to the west and up along the Front
Range. The sky was clear with temperatures in the upper 60s
and dewpoints in the middle 60s.

Temperatures will be near normal, give or take a couple degrees,
through Wednesday. After which, temperatures will warm slowly
even though the upper level ridge will start to break down. The
hottest temperatures are centered on Saturday and Sunday, or
just before a weak front passes early Monday. Surface dewpoint
forecasts remain "reasonable" for this time of year given the
evapotranspiration of the season, though they seem to be a bit
low overall. Forecast heat index values are still expected to be
below advisory levels, even on the hottest days. Right now,
peak heat index values around 100 degrees are centered on
Saturday. After the front passes Monday, temperatures will start
to drop back. Operational and ensembles both suggest some
potential for near normal to possibly below normal temperatures
in the 8 to 10 day timeframe.

As mentioned, the forecast is officially dry through early next
week, but Thursday afternoon could be the exception. Models at
the opposite end of the spectrum (RRFS and ECMWF) are both
leaning toward the idea that some afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms could emerge as H7 temperatures cool, instability
increases and some weakish energy wraps around the upper high
from the southeast. Coverage looks very sparse and probably
favors areas southeast of Hastings generally speaking, but don`t
be shocked if there some isolated development Thursday
afternoon and the forecast reflects that in coming iterations.

Aside from that potential small chance Thursday afternoon,
ensembles peg chances of 0.50" total rainfall at less than 25%
through July 22/23 so there really is no reason to expect
anything of consequence in the next 8-9 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Ridging over the central CONUS will keep us dry and seasonably
warm through midweek. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s
to low 90s, with more "excessive" heat remaining to our north.

We will gradually trend warmer for the end of the week. The peak
warmth looks to be centered on Saturday with widespread highs
in the mid to upper 90s. As of now, heat index values appear
they will remain below advisory criteria (105 degrees) in most
areas, thanks to (relatively) low humidity.

A front moves into the area Sunday into Monday. A handful of
ensemble members show potential for showers/storms to return,
but the overall model consensus continues to favor dry
conditions until the middle of next week. Through the next 10
days, global ensembles show only a 10-20% chance to see 0.50" or
more. Normal rainfall during this timeframe is around 1.15".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Other than a very low potential for non-dense fog overnight (only
30% for KGRI), VFR conditions will likely retain across the
rest of the 6z TAF period. Calm to light winds tonight,
generally out of the south to southeast will become more
southeasterly for the daytime. Wind speeds increasing in the
afternoon will blow between 10-15kts with gusts as high as 20kts
possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion