Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

649
FXUS63 KOAX 230532
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
  Thursday afternoon and evening (15% chance of severe for any
  given storm), with the greatest risk between 2 PM and 8 PM.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday
  (60-90%).

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

After a period of dry weather across the region, change is on
the horizon. A broad upper-level trough is located over the
western third of the United States. Additional shortwaves are
rounding this feature and helping drive our changing weather
tonight. In response to the aforementioned troughs, strong lee
troughing is ongoing across the Great Plains. South winds are
rapidly bringing rich gulf moisture north with dewpoints already
in the 50s to near 60 for many. To our west over north-central
Nebraska, a developing front and a broken line of strong
thunderstorms are ongoing. These thunderstorms will approach
eastern Nebraska during the morning hours. By this time,
decaying showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder are
anticipated. Related to the increasing moisture, low-clouds are
overspreading the area. The low clouds and increasing moisture
keep it mild overnight with temperatures that remain largely in
the 60s.

The latest convective allowing guidance has trended further east
compared to previous forecasts. This trend is likely influenced
by low clouds hanging on through the early afternoon over a
large portion of the area. As a result temperatures may struggle
to heat through the 70s into the low 80s. Based on the latest
trends, by mid-afternoon thunderstorms should develop along the
cold front along a line from approximately Harlan, IA to Omaha,
NE to Beatrice, NE. Any thunderstorms are likely to become
strong to severe quickly with moderate instability and
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms. Should
any severe thunderstorms develop, the initial hazard is expected
to be large hail. Continued thunderstorm develop along the cold
front is expected, forming a broken line of strong to severe
thunderstorms rather quickly. As the mode transitions from
scattered thunderstorms to a mostly solid line, the hazard
shifts towards damaging winds. There remains a threat of a
tornado or two, but confidence is lower in this scenario. Low-
level wind shear is likely to be a bit lacking. That said, storm
interactions could help overcome this in isolated
circumstances. Thunderstorms will begin to push east of the area
late in the evening as the cold front pushes through the
region. Thursday night will be quiet as a result.

Friday begins a trend of cooler, near-normal temperatures in
the forecast. The morning should start in the upper 30s and 40s
before gradually warming into the middle 60s. Friday is expected
to be dry, but the broad trough over the western third of the
United States remains in place. Our next series of shortwaves
approaches the area on Saturday. Temperatures will largely be
the same as Friday, but with the addition of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. There is a
medium (30-60%) chance of seeing precipitation during this
time. As a more potent trough approaches the region on Sunday,
a better chances of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated.
Widespread precipitation (60-90% chance) will be a welcomed
sight. This is aided by an area of low pressure that will track
from southwest to northeast across the region during this time.
At the movement, the severe weather threat appears low, but this
will depend on the exact track of the area of low pressure.
Currently, areas near the Kansas-Nebraska border have a 15%
chance of severe weather outlooked.

The same pattern from this weekend should hold into next week.
Monday sees near-mormal temperatures continue, though a lull in
precipitation is currently expected. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
showers and thunderstorms should enter the forecast once again
as yet another trough approaches the region. It is too early to
dive into the finer details, but any additional rain is
appreciated at the moment. Temperatures will also continue their
run of remaining near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KOFK: Ceilings have begun to fall at the terminal this evening.
Expect conditions to deteriorate to MVFR levels by 09Z with a
few showers moving into the region. An isolated thunderstorm
cannot be entirely ruled out. Rain/storm chances continue
through around 15Z. Winds gradually turn from southerly at the
start of the period to westerly by 15Z to northwesterly by 01Z
as a cold front moves into the region. Additional chances for
thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening to the
east and southeast of the terminal; however, any additional
showers/storms past 15Z are not expected for the terminal.

KOMA: Ceilings will fall to MVFR levels this morning with
possible IFR conditions after sunrise as stratus moves into the
region. A few showers will be possible in the vicinity of the
terminal by 10Z. Additional chances for precipitation come later
in the afternoon as a cold front begins moving through the
region.

KLNK: Ceilings will lower to MVFR levels as stratus moves into
the region. Expect showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
to the northwest of the terminal through around 08Z. Showers and
storms will move into the vicinity of the terminal after 08Z
with chances for some severe storms during the afternoon and
evening hours as a cold front moves into the region. Winds will
transition from southerly to westerly by mid-afternoon, to
northwesterly tonight as the front comes through.

Ceilings are beginning to fall as stratus moves into the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

307
FXUS63 KGID 230751
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
251 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions for west-northwest portions
  of the area today due to the combination of breezy winds and
  low relative humidity. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
  10am-8pm.

- Low chance for scattered storms along a Hebron-Beloit line
  during the early afternoon hours. These storms could produce
  large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Multiple rounds of showers/storms possible (40-85%) Friday
  night- Monday morning, with the overall highest chances (60-85%)
  on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Southerly winds remain breezy this morning, gusting 25-35mph ahead
of an approaching cold front. The cold front currently located along
an Ord-Cozad line will push east/southeast across the area this
morning, reaching the Tri-Cities around sunrise, and the Highway 81
corridor during the late morning hours-noon. A few scattered
showers/weak storms are possible along and ahead of the front
through the morning hours.

Overall, models remain on track with the faster frontal
progression (timing as stated above), with strong/severe storms
developing east of the area (all 00z HREF members develop storms
25+ miles east of the area). Still, there remains a low chance
for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front during
the early afternoon hours before the cold front exits
southeastern portions the area. CAPE and shear values would be
sufficient for these storms to quickly become severe, capable of
all hazards. The window for severe potential looks to be short
and limited to far east/southeastern portions of the area (areas
along/southeast of a Hebron-Beloit line).

Cooler but still seasonably warm weather is expected behind the
front with highs in the 70s. A drier airmass will also be in place,
with afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens.
Breezy west-norththwesterly winds gusting 20-30mph are
expected, strongest west of Highway 281. The breezy winds and
low humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions
across western portions of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect 10am to 8pm today. Widespread near-critical to briefly
critical fire weather conditions are possible outside of the
warning, especially in counties bordering the Red Flag Warning.
Lows tonight will drop into the 30s and 40s, coldest across
northwestern portions of the area where patchy frost is
possible.

A broad upper level low will sit over the northern Rockies/Plains on
Friday. Dry weather is expected during the daytime hours with highs
in the 60s and 70s. Lighter winds (gusts 20mph or less) keep fire
weather concerns low despite afternoon relative humidity values of
15-25%. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track with
multiple rounds of precipitation moving through the area Friday
night-Monday morning. The overall highest chances look to be on
Sunday, with scattered to widespread rain across the area.
Accumulations of 0.50"-1.00" are possible in areas that see multiple
rounds of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday (10 AM-8
 PM) for roughly the northwest half of our CWA. This MIGHT
  actually be our last critical fire weather concern for several
  days, which would be welcomed! Please refer to separate Fire
  Weather section below for all further discussion on this
  topic.

- Decreasing severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday afternoon-
  evening: What a change 24 hours has made! Yesterday, various
  forecast models slowed down the passage of Thursday`s cold
  front/dryline...seemingly bringing at least the eastern one-
  third to perhaps one-half of our CWA "under the gun" for a
  severe storm threat during the afternoon-evening. However,
  overnight model runs (and continuing into today) have abruptly
  sped up this front again...in turn firing up any severe storms
  at least SLIGHTLY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. Out of
  an abundance of caution, SPC has for now maintained an
  official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for a few of our far east-
  southeast counties on their latest Day 2 outlook, but they did
  shift the western edges of their Marginal Risk (level 1) to
  the east of Hwy 281. IN SUMMARY: barring a surprising "last
  minute" shift back west (unlikely but cannot totally rule it
  out just yet), the threat for severe storms in our CWA on
  Thursday appears to have diminished quite a bit versus 24
  hours ago.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. April 29):
-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Overall, today has turned out very much as expected: Windy
(southerly gusts 30-40 MPH with spotty 45 MPH) and warm, with
highs on track to top out mainly 80-86 degrees. It`s also
remained rain/storm-free.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm the onset of a more
active weather pattern these next several days, as we are under
increasing southwesterly flow aloft...downstream from a potent
shortwave trough/closed low currently churning through the
Northern Rockies. Down at the surface, the pressure gradient has
really tightened up across our Central Plains region today,
driven by a strong (roughly 990 millibar) low pressure center
over eastern MT, which has in turn kicked up our stout southerly
winds.


- THIS EVENING (mainly pre-midnight):
The vast majority of our CWA will surely remain dry and
continued windy/breezy out of the south (gusts at least 25-35
MPH even after dark), as a surface trough/weak cold front slowly
approaches our area from the west-northwest. Technically, the
EXTREME western fringes of our CWA (mainly western
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) remain under a Marginal Risk for a rogue
severe storm via the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, and we are
carrying some low-end chances/PoPs to cover this possibility.
However, high-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) strongly suggest that
the vast majority of this activity should remain at least 25-50
miles west of our CWA altogether...with storms tracking more
north than east. That being said, we will have to keep an eye on
our western fringes...just in case a non-zero thunderstorm
threat does materialize.

- LATE OVERNIGHT (post midnight):
As the early morning hours go by, the surface cold front will
gradually invade our CWA from west-to-east...reaching roughly
halfway through by sunrise. Ahead of this boundary, southerly
winds will remain breezy but gradually diminish in speed, while
behind the boundary breezes will switch to out of the northwest.

As for rain/thunderstorm chances, odds still favor MOST areas
staying dry. That being said, some fairly weak elevated
instability (rooted mainly above 800 millibars) could spark some
isolated/scattered showers and possibly some weak thunderstorms.
These could occur almost anywhere in our CWA, but appear to
MOSTLY favor counties along/north of I-80. That being said,
chances are currently no higher than 20-40%.

As for low temps, they will hold up well into the upper 50s-low
60s most places (aided in part by a large mass of low clouds
expected to overspread most of our CWA), with some cooler low-
mid 50s sneaking into only our far west-northwest counties
around/just after sunrise as drier air moves in there first.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
As already highlighted above, the faster passage of the frontal
boundary/dryline represent a fairly big change versus
expectations from 24 hours ago.

The morning starts with lingering low-level clouds mainly over
the eastern 1/3 of our CWA, while mid-high level clouds linger
central/west. There MIGHT be a few lingering showers/weak storms
over our eastern counties in the morning-early afternoon as
well, but these appear to be far from "soaking rains". Out of
caution as much as anything (and in line with SPC Day 2
Outlook), we linger some small thunderstorm chances into our
far east-southeast counties during the late afternoon-early
evening, but latest HRRR/NAMNest focus most all severe potential
now 25-50 miles east-southeast of our CWA altogether.

In other departments: The post-frontal west-northwesterly
breezes will take over our entire area, generally sustained
10-20 MPH/gusting 15-30 MPH (highest west/weakest east). High
temps were changed very little, ranging mid-upper 70s north/west
to low 80s south/southeast.


- THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Any thunderstorm chances that might have existed quickly wane,
with skies becoming mostly clear in the wake of the passing
upper disturbance. Northerly breezes will average at least 5-10
MPH, which will keep temps from "tanking" too far, but still
lows will be quite a bit cooler than tonight...aimed from mid-
upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s southeast (very low chance
for a little frost far northwest around Ord?...not currently in
official forecast).


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
The vast majority of the day-early evening looks dry as breezes
shift from northerly to more easterly. High temps aimed 60s
north to low-70s south. However, already by early evening and
especially overnight, some low-end rain/weak thunderstorm
chances arrive from the west...mainly targeting our northern
counties per latest model data.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
While not a non-stop rain situation by ANY means, this will be
an overall-active few days as another large-scale shortwave
trough gradually approaches/invades our region from the west-
southwest. Although rain chances/PoPs are at least no higher
than 50% for Saturday, they still might be overdone. However,
more widespread and higher-confidence chances arrive Sunday-
Sunday night with the main wave...during which time much of our
area COULD pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain. Although far too
early to pinpoint details, at least our southern counties MAY
need monitored for a strong to severe storm threat mainly
Sunday...although this would appear to mainly be an elevated
storm threat (meaning mainly hail). High temps both days aimed
mainly 60s, with lows mainly upper 30s-40s.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Various, intermittent chances for rain shower and mainly weak
thunderstorms continue, as our flow aloft remains quasi-zonal
(west-east) before turning more southwesterly mid-week.
Temperatures continue to lean at least slightly toward the
cooler side (especially compared to lately), with highs aimed
mainly upper 50s-upper 60s...and lows mainly mid 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low-end MVFR ceilings are expected to retain across the next few
hours until a cold front sweeps by between 10-13z. VFR ceilings
will then take back over through the rest of the period (after
12/13z). A few scattered storms may approach the terminals
between 9-13z. These scattered storms should be in and out of
the area, likely only bringing brief aviation impacts (slight
reduction in visibility or brief IFR ceilings possible).

As far as the winds go, breezy southerly winds gusting as high
as 35kts tonight will abruptly turn northwestwards following the
passage of the colds front (sometime between 9-13z). Winds
across the daytime Friday will blow between 10-15kts with gust
occasionally as high as 25kts. Winds Friday evening and night
will become more northerly oriented.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A cold front looks to reach the Tri-Cities around sunrise, and the
Highway 81 corridor around noon. Behind the front, west-northwest
winds gusting 20-30mph are expected, strongest west of Highway
281. A drier airmass will also be in place behind the front,
with afternoon relative humidity values of 10-20%. This will
result in critical fire weather conditions for areas along a
Phillipsburg-Grand Island-Greely line. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect 10am-8pm today for those areas. At least near-critical
to briefly critical fire weather conditions are expected in
counties bordering the current Red Flag Warning. A possible
expansion of the warning further east may be needed if breezy
winds shift further east than currently forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion