38°F
Updated:
4/4/2026
03:16:52am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
426 FXUS63 KOAX 040512 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1212 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A low pressure system lifting northeast across the region will bring precipitation chances (20-30%) to northeastern Nebraska overnight. Rain mixing with snow before becoming all snow is expected. - Expect a dry weekend with temperatures gradually returning to the upper 50s to mid-60s by Sunday afternoon. - The pattern shifts again heading into mid-week bringing additional chances of precipitation to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Mid-level water vapor imagery shows the low over the Central and High Plains. A line of storms extending from north central Texas to eastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin continues to progress to the northeast. Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa are currently in the dry slot with the comma head of the low slowly pivoting over the Nebraska Panhandle and into north central Nebraska. Precipitation chances will increase across northern Nebraska over the next few hours as the low shifts northeast, bringing shower activity into the Omaha forecast area. Precipitation will start as rain or a rain/snow mix before transitioning to all snow as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s overnight. Little to no precipitation snow accumulation is expected. Saturday, the low lifts northeast out of the region with northwest flow setting up. Expect dry conditions over the weekend and a gradual warming trend. By Sunday afternoon, expected highs will return to the upper 50s to mid-60s. Monday through the end of the forecast, our unsettled weather pattern will continue with a couple of disturbances moving through the region. These systems will bring a cool down and a chance for precipitation to the region, followed by a brief warm up. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 MVFR with patchy IFR ceilings will remain over the region tonight and into Saturday morning. Ceilings should scatter out to VFR levels from southwest to northeast around 23Z Saturday evening. A few scattered snow showers may sneak across far northeast Nebraska between 06-12Z this morning, but should generally avoid the TAF sites. Any snow that does fall would be light with little to no accumulation. Northwest winds will become breezy today, with speeds up to 25-35 kts possible until 00Z Saturday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...KG
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
675 FXUS63 KGID 040604 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 104 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon for counties mainly along the far western fringes of our forecast area due to gusty northwest winds and low relative humidity/RH (elsewhere in our area, relative humidity should remain well above 25-30%). - Increased precipitation chances and opportunities for beneficial rainfall next week with the overall-highest chances (60% to 75%) tentatively expected Thursday-Friday. - Along with the increased precip chances, chances for at least weak thunderstorms will also return at various points Wednesday night-Friday. Stronger storms could be a possibility (it is April after all), but still too soon to say whether any "true" convective threat might clip into our area or instead focus more to the south and/or east. - Temperature-wise: Overall the next 7 days appear very seasonable for April, with high temps most days 50s-60s and lows most nights 20s-40s. At least for now, Wednesday looks like the overall-warmest day with highs 70s-low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 An upper trough/low is over the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains. Upper lift has increased across Nebraska and Kansas associated with the upper trough/low. This has resulted in showers, drizzle and fog developing earlier today that has cleared out of the forecast area. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are out of the north with high temperatures today ranging from the 40s in the north and east to the 50s and 60s in the south and west. A surface trough/low is across western Nebraska and western Kansas which has resulted in warmer temperatures and clearing skies. Temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the 20s and 30s behind a cold front. Nebraska and Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough on Saturday with gusty north to northwest winds. High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s and 60s across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Low temperatures Saturday night will be fairly similar to those from the previous night with light, westerly winds. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Sunday with the area in between 2 surface troughs. A cold front is expected by Monday with high temperatures possibly ranging from the 40s to near 70. Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with winds increasing out of the south, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the high temperatures due to increased lift and cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday as winds increase out of the south to southwest. Cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday due to a cold front but there is high uncertainty in regards to the high temperatures due to uncertainties in the timing and strength of the front. Precipitation chances increase again next week with the highest chances Thursday night (60% to 75% chance). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 104 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): Confidence is high in VFR visibility throughout the period and is also high that ceiling will drop no lower than MVFR. However, there are some question marks regarding which side of the MVFR/VFR "breakpoint" the ceiling will ultimately prevail through mainly these first 9-13 hours...especially at KGRI where MVFR will probably be more prevalent. Precipitation-wise, while a brief sprinkle and/or brief drizzle cannot be ruled out during these first couple of hours, high confidence that measurable precip will not occur and have kept any precip mention out of TAFS. Besides the aforementioned ceiling questions, moderately-strong northwest winds are the main aviation issue...especially during the day Saturday when sustained speeds will commonly average 20-25KT/gusts around 30KT. Backing up to early this morning (through shortly after sunrise), winds will start becoming a bit breezy out of the northwest...commonly sustained around 15KT/gusts 20+KT. - Ceiling uncertainty (centered around MVFR vs. VFR questions): At least an intermittent ceiling is likely especially through 21Z KEAR/00Z KGRI...with the main question mark being how much of this ceiling is MVFR (mainly 2-3K ft. AGL) versus low-end VFR (mainly 3-5 K ft. AGL). Compared to previous TAFs, made relatively minimal change, but did bring outright-VFR back to KGRI a few hours earlier (now aimed for 19Z). Focusing a bit more on each site: - For KGRI: Although it will likely be more inte Although confidence is high in an outright return to VFR by 21Z, a lower-end VFR ceiling (4-5K ft. AGL) rmittent than current TAFs reflect, have maintained prevailing MVFR through 19Z, although this would favor being no worse than high-end MVFR beyond these first few hours. Even if VFR returns sooner than currently reflected, a low-end VFR ceiling (4-5K ft. AGL) could linger through as late as around 00Z. - For KEAR: The overall likelihood and duration of potential MVFR ceiling is certainly lower compared to KGRI, and have only kept prevailing MVFR through 09Z. However, at least scattered MVFR clouds and/or a low-end VFR ceiling between 3-5K ft. AGL could persist well beyond that, possibly into the first part of Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Saturday potential for near-critical" fire weather conditions in our far western forecast area: Near-critical fire weather conditions appear possible mainly within our far western forecast area...including Dawson, Gosper, Furnas, Phillips and Rooks counties...due to the combination of northwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH, and relative humidity as low as 20-25 percent. The remainder of our forecast area will also have gusty northwest winds, but relative humidity should largely remain above 30 percent. Looking beyond Saturday, fortunately there are currently no "obvious" days that bear watching for potentially more widespread critical conditions that might necessitate Warning issuance, but Wednesday at least bears watching considering it is expected to be the warmest day of the next week. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Pfannkuch FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
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