Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

360
FXUS63 KOAX 132316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
616 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire conditions for northeast Nebraska Thursday with a
  Red Flag Warning in effect from 10am-7pm. Strong southerly
  winds and low humidity across our entire area combined with
  dry fuels in northeast Nebraska.

- Low chances (20-40%) for showers and storms on Thursday and
  Friday with better chances for rain holding off until
  Saturday night through Monday.

- Potential is increasing for periodic strong-to-severe storms
  Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Clear skies this afternoon with nearly calm winds as high
pressure moves across the area. Water vapor imagery shows the
upper-level ridge building into the Central US helping to
contribute to subsidence across our region. Temperatures are
already in the 70s as of noon and are expected to warm into the
low 80s again across most of our area. Winds, light and variable
as of midday will start to gradually increase out of the south-
southeast this evening into the overnight hours as the surface
ridge shifts eastward toward the Mississippi River Valley.

Tomorrow`s main concern will be the extreme fire conditions
expected to develop. As a compact upper-level trough moves
across Saskatchewan into Manitoba, we`ll see a mass response
leading to a tightening pressure gradient and increasing wind
speeds Thursday morning. A strong low-level jet develops in the
warm conveyor belt of the deepening cyclone over south-central
Canada, with wind speeds reaching 50-55 kts at 850 mb. This
translates to wind gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph by 9-10am
continuing into the afternoon. Strong winds combined with
humidity dropping to 20 to 30 percent Thursday afternoon will
lead to extreme fire conditions in areas with fuels dry enough
for explosive fire growth. This is limited to a portion of northeast
Nebraska where we have issued a Red Flag Warning.

An upper-level shortwave should generate at least echoes on
radar if not a few isolated showers/storms. Dry low levels mean
most of it will evaporate before reaching the ground (virga),
but do have up to a 30% chance for rain Thursday morning. If
anything accumulates, it will only be a couple hundredths of an
inch. Thursday afternoon, temperatures will be a couple degrees
warmer than today but still in the low-to-mid 80s, starting our
warming trend going into the weekend. Far southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa could get clipped by an isolated storm
or two Thursday evening, with potential for large hail or
damaging winds.

A much more active weather pattern sets up going into the
weekend with a buckling zonal flow pattern setting up to send a
series of waves through our area into early next week. The first
of these waves brings lower pressure into the WY-western SD-
northwest NE area on Friday ramping up warm-air advection into
Nebraska and western Iowa. High temperatures will be very
summer-like, getting into the upper 80s to mid 90s. We see
another chance for scattered showers and storms Friday evening
as a weak cold front pushes through, though dry lower levels
will again limit rainfall amounts to generally less than a tenth
of an inch.

Saturday our next system brings another flow reversal allowing
highs to warm back up into the mid-to-upper 80s. We see the
development of a stationary front across our area by Saturday
afternoon, acting as a focus for potential showers and
thunderstorms only increasing in coverage going into the
evening with the amplification of the low-level jet. Steep lapse
rates as well as moderate shear along and south of the boundary
will lead to potential for strong to severe storms into the
overnight hours. Two additional shortwaves will trigger
additional chances for strong to severe storms through the
period Sunday into Monday as well. Details still are murky, but
all hazards including large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes,
and flash flooding appear to be possible at times.

The active pattern looks to continue into next week with
additional chances for showers and storms. Temperatures trend
cooler after Monday, settling back around normal by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds
will increase overnight and into Thursday morning. Gusts as high
as 30 to 40 kts will be possible at times.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>033.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

824
FXUS63 KGID 140221
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
921 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning continues for today. Fire weather concerns
  for the remainder of the week are elevated, but not at Red
  Flag levels.

- There is a 15-20% chance for scattered thunderstorms Thursday,
  despite the current ongoing dry forecast. Bulk of severe
  activity is expected to be southeast of the area in
  central/eastern Kansas.

- Saturday afternoon through Sunday night remains the best
  chance (50-60%) for strong to severe thunderstorms and our
  best chance at rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Relative humidity values are improving across the region this
evening, and critical fire weather conditions are no longer
being observed. For this reason, the Red Flag warning was
cancelled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A more active pattern is setting up as zonal flow transitions
and a trough sets up over the western half of the country this
weekend putting the Plains under southwesterly flow aloft.

Thursday-Friday:
Southerly surface level flow will be strong, beginning in the
overnight hours tonight and continue through Thursday. This will
help advect up higher dew point temperatures. Models are quick
with this moisture return, but there are some reservations as to
how far north the higher dew points will get. Along and ahead of
the front, some models indicate that there may be enough
moisture transport in a narrow corridor (aided by today`s
southerly winds over the High Plains) to support thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours. The current forecast is dry, but for
areas along and west of Highway 183, there is a 15-20% chance
for thunderstorms. Instability across the remainder of southern
Nebraska looks marginal at best, while the best conditions for
strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be across central and
eastern Kansas just to the east of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be warm for the end of the work week, but
current forecast highs could be slightly overdone and tried to
taper them down slightly with this forecast, especially where
low level moisture begins to increase across southern and
southeastern Nebraska.

Saturday - Monday:
The weekend also looks warm, with temps generally in the mid-
upper 80s. Confidence is low that the weekend, despite all the
rain chances, will be a rainout. The primary concern is that
many will not see much rain that the drought stricken area is
desperate for. There will be a number of weak waves ahead of the
main disturbance that looks to eject northeastward on Monday.
These weak waves will bring chances for precipitation and some
severe weather to the area for the weekend, the main time period
looks to be Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon and
overnight.

Uncertainty remains high in the central part of Nebraska/Kansas
for where the best low level moisture and surface front will be
and thus where thunderstorm activity will fire, especially on
Sunday. There is a chance that we could generally be quiet,
watching activity in Eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

This uncertainty persists for Monday with precipitation and
temperatures. If the front has moved through, it could be a much
cooler day than is currently indicated in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with gusty
southerly winds continuing overnight and likely peaking at the
terminals during the morning hours Thursday.

Expect the pressure gradient across the region to intensify
overnight as an area of low pressure deepens on the lee side of
the northern Rockies. This will allow winds to remain gusty
overnight...with gusts of 15-25 KTS continuing...but for strong
LLWS to also develop across the region. This WS should peak
between 14/06-14/12Z before shifting east of the terminals as
the aforementioned area of low pressure moves into the high
plains. While some mid/high level clouds will be increasing as
this system approaches the area, no lower clouds/reductions in
vsbys or precipitation is anticipated at either terminal through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Beyond today, Fire Weather concerns will remain, but Red Flag
conditions are not as likely primarily due to the increase in
low level moisture.

Despite dry conditions (RH 18-25%) expected Thursday afternoon
over areas along and west of Hwy 183, the strongest winds will
have moved east of the area.

On Friday winds remain light despite dry conditions (RH values
in the teens) for much of western Nebraska.

Through the remainder of the weekend, RH values are expected to
increase with the influx of the low level moisture despite the
breezy winds at times.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion