Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

416
FXUS63 KOAX 221713
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1113 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a mild, dry weekend with highs in the low 60s; rain
  chances increase again Monday, peaking at 60-80%.

- Cooler weather arrives next week, with highs falling into the
  30s and low 40s by Thanksgiving.

- Monitor the forecast for Thanksgiving into next weekend, there
  are early hints of snowfall, but confidence in timing and
  location remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Early morning analysis showed surface high pressure in control
across the area with just some passing mid to high clouds in the
forecast area. However, there was a small area of dense fog
across south-central NE into north-central KS where there was a
low level moisture axis, some earlier breaks in the clouds, and
winds aloft were at a minimum under low level ridging. A few
pieces of guidance (e.g. the HRRR) bring that patch of fog
through roughly the southern half of the forecast area this
morning, dissipating it toward mid to late morning. Not
particularly confident in how it will pan out given the
aforementioned clouds in place and some decent winds aloft.
However, dewpoint depressions as of 2 AM were only a degree or 2
in many locations, so it wouldn`t take much moisture advection
to reduce those to 0. At the very least, think we`ll have some
patchy dense fog roll through this morning. Other than that,
it`ll be a pretty quiet day, though a touch breezy with some
wind gusts of 20-25 mph. We`ll see some passing clouds, but we
should be able to mix fairly well, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower to mid 60s across much of the area.

By late this afternoon/evening, a cold front currently over the
western Dakotas will have worked through the area, with winds
becoming northwesterly. Temperatures won`t be impacted too much,
but we might be a few degrees cooler overnight Saturday night
with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. In addition, surface
high pressure will be building in and should lead to a clear
night with very light winds, setting the stage for another round
of at least patchy fog development into Sunday morning.
Otherwise, southerly winds on the back side of departing high
pressure will allow highs to get back into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. So overall, a pretty pleasant weekend for late
November.

Attention then turns to a cutoff low progged to be in eastern
CO by Sunday evening with associated rain starting to push into
the forecast area toward midnight into early Monday morning.
While rain chances are high (60-90% chance through a good chunk
of the day Monday), totals look to be fairly modest, with
consensus suggesting only a 20-40% chance of at least a quarter
inch in a given spot. That precip will exit from west to east
Monday evening/night, though a northern stream shortwave trough
will be on its heels, pushing through the Dakotas on Tuesday,
with a surface low deepening over MN/WI. Strong northwest winds
on the back side of this low will bring in cooler weather for
the remainder of the week (50s on Monday, 40s Tuesday, then 30s
and 40s Wednesday into the weekend). In addition, guidance
continues to suggest some precipitation could wrap around the
back side of that low and clip portions of northeast NE into
west-central IA Tuesday into Tuesday night. With the
aforementioned cold air moving in, this precipitation would
likely fall as snow, though overall consensus keeps a vast
majority of that precip to our north. Currently giving it a
10-15% chance of seeing snow in our area, with little to no
impact expected if we do.

Beyond Wednesday, we`ll need to continue to monitor for
potential snowfall at some point Thursday into the weekend.
While the vast majority of guidance is dry Thursday and Friday
with surface high pressure in control, there are a handful of
ensemble members that slide some weak shortwave energy through
that interacts with a front and brings us a band of snow. For
now, giving that about a 10% chance at most with very low
confidence in the timing, strength, and location of any system,
but given the increased travel, it`s definitely worth
monitoring. Instead, the overall trend has been toward increased
chances of a potentially stronger system impacting the area
sometime Saturday into early next week. Unfortunately, there is
A LOT of spread in how that one would pan out as well (timing,
strength, location, precipitation type, etc.), but given the
cold air in place, at least part of the area would likely see
accumulating snow with any system that does move through. So if
you have travel plans for Thanksgiving, make sure to keep up to
date on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are observed at the start of the TAF cycle. A
front will move through from northwest to southeast, switching
winds from west southwest to northwest this afternoon. Winds may
gust around 20 kts at times, primarily at KOFK while slightly lighter
winds are anticipated at KOMA and KLNK. Confidence has
increased regarding fog development after 08z across western
Iowa, eventually reaching KOMA after 12z. Have added a FM group
reducing visibilities to MVFR at KOMA for this issuance, but
expect further refinements and adjustments with subsequent
issuances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

977
FXUS63 KGID 221733
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1133 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, at times dense, possible through the mid-morning
  hours mainly southwest of the Tri-cities.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- The next chance for rain (50-80%) arrives Sunday night-Monday,
accumulations will be light (Generally 0.10" or less).

- Cooler weather (highs 30s/40s) arrives Tuesday and continues
  through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Skies are gradually clearing across the area this morning, with
temperatures currently sitting in the 30s. Areas of patchy fog, at
times dense, are ongoing over southwestern portions of the
area. Fog will gradually shift to the east-southeast this
morning, as westerly winds strengthen. Widespread dense fog does
not appear likely given the unfavorable wind direction. Despite
this, periods of fog with visibility below 1 mile are possible
through the mid-morning hours, most likely across portions of
north central Kansas that saw the heaviest rain on Friday.

A very pleasant day is expected, under mostly sunny skies and west-
northwest winds. Have opted to go on the higher end of model
guidance for highs today (low 60s), given favorable downslope winds
and sunshine allowing for deeper mixing. Clear skies and light winds
will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s
tonight. Winds shift to the south on Sunday ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. Highs on Sunday will climb into the mid 50s to low
60s, though southwestern portions of the area could be kept a little
cooler due to increasing cloud coverage. Get outside and enjoy the
weather if you can, as much cooler weather arrives next week.

The shortwave and associated low move into the forecast area Sunday
night, bringing a fairly widespread chance (50-80%) for rain. Rain
accumulations with this system will remain fairly light, with most
areas seeing 0.10" or less. Scattered light rain comes to an end
from west to east Monday afternoon. The rest of the forecast period
remains largely on track as a strong cold front pushes through the
area on Tuesday. Gusty winds are expected behind the cold front,
with gusts of 35-45mph possible across northern portions of the
area. Behind the front, highs in the upper 30s to low 40s are
expected through the end of the forecast period. The forecast is dry
for Thanksgiving, with the next system arriving around the end of
the month (first chance for snow?).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cloudy skies and occasionally wet conditions were observed
across much of the local area today, with significant rainfall
(1-3"+) accumulating across our Kansas counties. Further north,
the gradient in precipitation was sharp, and parts of the area
mainly north of interstate 80 - received only a few hundredths
to a couple tenths of an inch of precip in the most favored
locations. Expect the responsible area of low pressure to
continue to track east tonight, with rainfall likely tapering
off by dark.

As the next upper level low then digs off the southern CA/Baja
coast Saturday...expect heights aloft to amplify and skies to
clear, with a very nice start to the weekend in store for the
entire region. Light westerly winds (unfavorable for morning
fog - but favorable for warmer temps) are then anticipated
across the area ahead of this low on Saturday...which should
also help boost temperatures into the 60s area wide. These
westerly winds will then shift and become more southerly on
Sunday, ahead of the aforementioned upper level low off the CA
coast that will bring increasing cloud cover throughout the day.
Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures should remain on the
mild side Sunday, with a chance of rain overtaking the region
Sunday night into Monday. This low will then rapidly move east
by Monday afternoon, and given the progressive nature and lack
of moisture depicted in the models, anticipate QPF to be on the
light side (0.01-0.25") despite the rather high pops (30-60%).

Thereafter, a cold front from the north will push across the
local area Tuesday...potentially bringing very windy conditions
to the region during the daytime hours. Behind this front,
northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated to persist through the
remainder of the forecast period...and likely beyond. This will
result in a cooler weather pattern, with occasional chances for
precip. The first chance, Thanksgiving night, is not anticipated
to be significant locally or impact many, with models honing in
on the subsequent disturbance late in the weekend that could
potentially bring the first measurable snowfall of the season to
start December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

We expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF valid
period with clear skies to possibly just a few high clouds.
Westerly winds early this afternoon will become more
northwesterly later this afternoon and then calm after sunset
before turning around out of the south Sunday morning.

The main concern is the small (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion