Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

004
FXUS63 KOAX 181050
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
550 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and non-severe thunderstorms are possible
  Saturday afternoon.

- Heat builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching 100
  to 108 degrees Sunday and Monday. A Heat Advisory is in effect
  on Sunday across northeast Nebraska and this will likely need
  to be expanded on Monday.

- Cooler weather returns by midweek, along with increasing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Quiet and warm this evening under upper level ridging with
temperatures as of 10 PM still in the mid to upper 80s for many
locations, highest near the NE/SD border and in urban areas. A
few pieces of guidance hint at fog development overnight into
early Saturday, mainly in river valleys and low- lying area.
However, model soundings once again show winds aloft will stay
up a bit, so it should be pretty patchy if it does develop once
again.

The main feature of note this evening was a surface boundary
stretching from central MN, across SD, and into far northwest
NE. This will sag southward into the area during the day on
Saturday with CAMs in pretty good agreement we`ll have at least
some scattered shower and storm development along it. Little to
no shear to work with along the boundary, but given the warm,
humid airmass and enhanced moisture pooling along the boundary,
could be enough instability for a few stronger storms with small
hail and gusty winds from downbursts. However, severe weather
is not expected at this time. Otherwise, it`ll be hot and humid
once again, but think the aforementioned precip and associated
clouds will lead to some slightly lower highs, but still
expecting mid to upper 90s for most with some heat indices
creeping into the lower 100s.

Warmer air aloft will start to push in Sunday and especially
Monday with NAEFS and EPS guidance suggesting 850 mb temps reach
22-25 C Sunday and 25-28 C range by Monday. Model soundings
show we should have no issues mixing into those warmer
temperatures aloft, meaning temperatures may start to approach
or exceed 100 on Sunday, and likely exceed it on Monday (50-80%
chance at a given spot). One thing to watch for Sunday will be
remnant cloud cover in the morning or even some spotty precip in
the afternoon with guidance showing some weak shortwave energy
and warm air advection nudging into the area at some point
during the day. Should this pan out, temperatures may end up
needing to be bumped down. Similar story for Monday as a cold
front looks to crash into the area at some point, but still some
questions on exact timing. For now, keeping the Heat Advisory
as-is for northeast NE on Sunday and holding off on any
headlines for Monday given the question of cloud cover and
precip along the front. I`d give it a 50-70% chance that we`ll
need another Heat Advisory Monday with the main question being
how much of the area to include.

Behind that front, we`ll see relief from the heat with highs in
the 80s to lower 90s through next week. Precip chances will
also be on the increase as the ridge axis sets up to our west
and shortwave energy dives through the northwest flow. Right
now, our highest chances look to be Wednesday night into
Thursday (40-60% chance) and again Thursday night into Friday
(30-40% chance). For what it`s worth, various machine learning
severe weather guidance suggests the potential for severe
weather will be low with these chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
little to no fog being reported in area observations this
morning. A wind shift has already begun pushing through near
KOFK, with winds expected to stay light but vary at KOFK, while
KOMA/KLNK stay southeasterly this morning before turning
increasingly easterly this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-016-
     017.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

584
FXUS63 KGID 181131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will mainly range the low to mid 90s today, mid to upper
  90s Sunday and the upper 90s to 103 degrees on Monday (Heat
  Index values as high as 100-107 degrees Monday afternoon).

- Temperatures beyond Monday will mainly stick between the mid
  80s to mid 90s.

- A few isolated non-severe storms may be possible across the
  area this afternoon and evening (10-20% chance). The best
  potential will be north of I-80.

- A few additional chances for a possibly more widespread
  coverage of storms currently lies between Wednesday and
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026


Today...

A "cold" front, currently draped across the Nebraska / South Dakota
border early this morning (indicated by the northerly wind shift
behind/north of the front), will be expected to meander south into
central Nebraska by the end of the day. Though the air behind this
front will not necessarily be "cold" in any way, this boundary more
so demarcates a subtle surface wind shift (southwest to east shift).

Weak convergence along this boundary during the afternoon to evening
hours (mainly between 4-10PM) could become just strong enough to
actually develop a few showers and possibly a few weak storms. Given
the boundaries slow progression, it is unlikely that this boundary
will be able to make it down to the Kansas state line. As result,
the best chance for isolated showers/storms will be for south
central nebraska with the best concentration north of I-80 (10-20%
chances). Though these storms/showers will be possible across much
of the area, most locations will likely remain dry given the
expected highly scattered nature of precipitation. For the storms
that do develop, given the weak shear aloft, it will be very
unlikely for any storm to become severe.

Otherwise, highs will look peak across the low to mid 90s range
today, or just a few degrees warmer from normal mid-July standards
(upper 80s). Winds will remain light among the weak surface pressure
gradient with directions starting out of the south to southwest
before becoming easterly following the weak frontal passage. Speeds
should struggle to increase much past 10-15MPH.


Sunday and Monday...

The main story for the start of the week will be the heat.
Height/pressure rises (ridging) across the intermountain west region
with height/pressure falls (troughing) across the eastern U.S. may
work to cancel one another across the central U.S. As result, little
is expected to change conditions wise here across the local area
until at least Tuesday. Rising temperatures with mostly dry
conditions will continue on through the day Sunday and Monday.
Though a few isolated storm/showers can`t be completely ruled out
everywhere, most locations will likely remain dry through the period.

Temperatures will look to peak on Monday between 97-103 degrees with
heat index values soaring as high as 100-107 degrees thanks to mid
60 to low 70s dewpoints. The latest LREF guidance suggests that
between 50% to 80% of the area could see highs reach 100 degrees. If
the current forecast continues to hold, a heat advisory may be
considered across a few portions of the area. As it stands, there is
still some uncertainty with if cloud coverage from nearby storms or
if overachieving dewpoints may play influence the temperature
forecast for the day?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the upper
80s to low 90s, and are expected to top out in the low-mid 90s.
Aloft a ridge remains in place over the eastern Rockies/western
Plains. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with
clear skies and light winds.

Highs climb into the mid 90s on Saturday with light winds shifting
to the east as a weak front slides into the area. Isolated to
perhaps scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15%)
Saturday afternoon for areas mainly along/north of Interstate 80.
Weak shear should keep any shower/storm brief and non-severe. Any
shower/storm will dissipate around sunset as instability wanes.

Heat increases on Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s. Sunny
skies and light winds make for an unpleasant day for those outdoors.
Heat index values climb to around 100 degrees, but look to fall
short of reaching heat advisory criteria (105 degrees). Areas most
favored to experience 100 degree heat index values will be along and
north of I-80.

Monday remains on track to be the hottest day of the forecast
period. Forecast highs are currently in the low 100s, which would be
the first 100 degree day this year for most portions of the forecast
area. Highs combined with dewpoints in the 60s will result in
widespread heat index values in the 100s. At least a portion if not
the entire area will likely need a heat advisory on Monday, but will
defer to a future shift to narrow down the exact area that is likely
to meet advisory criteria. Those with outdoor activities on Monday
will want to take breaks and drink plenty of water as sunny skies
and light winds will not provide relief from the heat.

A trough dives into the Midwest Monday night, flattening the ridge
and pushing a cold front through the area. Cooler weather is
expected Tuesday onwards with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.
As a northwesterly flow pattern sets up over the area next week, it
will bring multiple chances for precipitation to the area. Details
on these chances will become clearer as we get closer in time (most
likely late afternoon-early overnight hours).* Add discussion
here.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to retain across the next at least 24
hours with only a few to scatted clouds as low as 6-10kft.
Though there is a low-end chance for showers or a weak and
isolated thunderstorm between 21-0z, the potential remains
highly limited given the limited coverage of these
showers/storms (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion