Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

310
FXUS63 KOAX 082227
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- |Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening
  into tonight. The main hazards will be strong winds, hail, and
  localized flooding due to heavy rainfall.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through
  Friday across the region.

- A pattern shift Saturday will bring a return of the heat on
  Sunday and into the extended forecast. Widespread highs in the
  90s and lows in the 60s and 70s are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Showers and a few weak thunderstorms have fired up along a cold
front and are currently moving across northeastern
Nebraska/northwestern Iowa. This activity is expected to continue
over the next few hours. Heading into the evening, models are
showing a line of thunderstorms developing along the cold front.
MLCAPE values of 2500+ are expected along with DCAPE values of
1000+, particularly for areas extending from along and south of a
line from Fremont to Utica. A few single thunderstorms will
eventually congeal into a line as it moves southeast. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected with wind, hail, and localized
flooding be the main concerns. Precipitable water values are in the
1.4-1.7" range, so any storms that are able to get going could be
efficient rain makers. Right now, the best chance for strong storms
will be after 7pm. Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight.

A few showers/storms may linger into the morning Thursday, before
tapering off by early afternoon. Enjoy the cooler temperatures as
highs reach the mid-80s for most locations. Afternoon high
temperatures will be dependent on how soon the rain and clouds clear
out. A quicker exit would allow us to warm slightly higher than
forecasted temperatures, while a delayed exit would result in cooler
temps. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures, dewpoints will be
in the 60s and 70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. A shortwave trough
moves across the region Thursday afternoon/evening, bringing a
chance for a few additional showers and storms.

Friday will bring more relief from the heat as highs climb into the
low to mid-80s. However, dewpoints will once again be in the 60s and
70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. Another shortwave trough slides
across eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon, bringing another chance
for showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast: An upper ridge
builds over the region with surface high pressure centered over Iowa
and Illinois. While we will have a break from the thunderstorms, the
heat is expected to return. The CPC is showing that there is a good
chance of above normal temperatures occurring across the Midwest and
Great Plains in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sunday highs will
reach into the 80s and low 90s. Heading into the start of next week,
widespread 90s will return. Lows will be in the low 70s several
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thunderstorm development is underway along a front draped across
northeast Nebraska this evening. Storms will quickly grow into
a larger cluster that slowly pushes southward into the overnight
period. Confidence is high (80%) that each terminal will see
thunderstorms tonight, with some amendments/refinements likely
needed in exact timing. Patchy MVFR to IFR conditions are
possible under any heavier thunderstorms. Strong to severe
storms will also be possible, with pockets of damaging wind
gusts (up to 50 kts) and hail (up to 1.50 inches). Severe
weather potential will gradually diminish into the overnight
period.

Storms will clear from north to south during the early morning
hours Thursday, with patchy MVFR ceilings possible into the
morning hours behind the clearing showers. Winds will remain
out of the south ahead of the front, quickly shifting to
northerly behind the front. Winds will remain at 8-12 kts,
besides when augmented by thunderstorm gusts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

853
FXUS63 KGID 081910
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms, a few severe, is expected this evening
  between mainly 6PM and 3AM. Hail up to the size of half
  dollars with wind gusts up to near 70MPH will be possible
  within the strongest storms.

- A few more scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
  night for mainly a few western and southern portions of the
  area. Hail up to the size of golfballs with wind gusts up to
  near 60MPH may be possible.

- Though a small 10-30% storm chance returns Friday night, the
  rest of the 7-day forecast period will be favored to remain
  dry (10-40% chance of >0.1" of precipitation)

- Temperatures are expected to warm up over the weekend with at
  least a 4+ day streak of 90+ degree highs expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026


Tonight and Thursday...

A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later
be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska
this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few
storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly
6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of
scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across
northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the
High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity
developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and
extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning
hours of Thursday.

The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has
recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now
a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for
tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier
(more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and
where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive
with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between
mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the
storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more
aggressive with the overnight convection rolling in from the high
plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated
south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best
scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios
where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later
in the night from the west.

Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance
(1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more
than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able
to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to
the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will
mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The
main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential
for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in
from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening
will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the
evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms
coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the
convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight
to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet
across north central Kansas may also play a small role.

In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create
an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour
rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential
for multiple waves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful
precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10-
20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also
introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of
rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a
given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in
expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall
decreased some as well.

Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady
surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this
afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind
the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for
Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday
night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area),
the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and
concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High
Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few
western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time
of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to
speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated
rather than widespread.


Friday into Next Week...

Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10-
30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat.
Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual
climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up
will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the
central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday.
This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range
ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80%
confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm,
subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the
precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble
Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of
precipitation through the week).

The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantial the
warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or
low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a
streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep
such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime
thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not
very likely to occur underneath such pattern).


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions may be possible between 12-15z for KGRI with
bases expected to remain in VFR conditions thorough the rest of
the day/night. The main aviation impact within the 18z TAF
would be from a few storms (possibly severe) that will near and
potentially pass between the terminals between mainly 0-8z
following the passing of a cold front. There is a chance for a
stronger to severe storm to near/clip either one the of TAF
sites between mainly 2-5z. Gusty winds and hail may be possible.


Surface winds today should soon hang out of the south before
meandering over to a northerly direction overnight and a
northeasterly direction Wednesday morning. Beyond the influence
from a evening thunderstorm, wind gusts are not expected to
exceed 20kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion