Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

295
FXUS63 KOAX 111027
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms likely overnight (60-80% chance),
  moving through around 3 to 7 AM. Threats include very large
  hail, damaging winds, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall.

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday (40-60% chance) with
  another chance for severe storms Saturday afternoon and
  evening.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

We have two boundaries across our area this evening. The main
one is just clipping far southeast Nebraska up through Page
County, IA bringing storms into Richardson County. The second is
more of a truer cold front with a wind shift to northwesterly
and much drier air to the north of it. This front stretches from
Beatrice northeast to around Red Oak, IA. We had a few storms
pop up along that second boundary earlier, but with diurnal
heating shutting off, we`ve even lost the clouds that were along
that boundary earlier.

Attention turns to storms overnight. Right now the upper-level
pattern shows broad troughing over the Northern High Plains.
Guidance has a decently strong shortwave trough pushing into
Nebraska early Thursday, providing upper-level dynamic support
for amplification of the low-level jet, and forcing for storm
development starting around 1-2AM over Central Nebraska. As the
LLJ strengthens overnight, we`ll see the stronger surface
frontal boundary start to advance northward into southeast
Nebraska. Isentropic upglide to the north of the surface front
will lead to destabilization above the boundary layer. This
instability combined with 40-55kts of 1-3km Bulk Shear along the
nose of the LLJ will lead to the organization of a strong MCS
that will track across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. While
CAMs continue to waffle on the exact path of this convective
complex, it generally looks to impact somewhere around I-80,
either aiming directly towards Lincoln or Omaha continuing east
into Iowa.

This complex will likely start as a cluster of strong individual
cells over Central Nebraska, starting to merge together as they
enter Butler, Seward, and Saline counties. These initial storm
clusters will have a high risk of large hail, up to 2.5 inches.
As they continue east, we`ll see cold-pool development as the
storm clusters start to organize themselves in the high-shear
environment. It will start with a couple strong downbursts,
which then will lead to the transition into more of more of a
wind-driven MCS with gust potential up likely up to 70-80 mph.
Couldn`t rule out gusts up to 100 mph. The next uncertainty lies
in where exactly this transition occurs and just how strong the
winds will get. I expect the transition will likely occur
somewhere around Lancaster+Saunders counties east into Omaha,
with a wind-driven hail threat through the transition. Areas
east of the transition will see more of just a damaging wind
threat.

Severe storms should clear the area into central Iowa by around
7AM, with the precip shield keeping light stratiform showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder into mid-morning. Once
showers clear, attention turns to the forecast for the rest of
Thursday. The good news is that it is going to be much cooler.
Strong northwesterly flow on the back-side of the upper-level
trough will mix down, leading to gusty northwesterly winds
developing late morning and lingering through the afternoon.
Expect frequent gusts 30 to 40 mph. These winds will be
advecting in cooler, drier air which will keep temperatures very
pleasant. Highs on Thursday will only get into the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Going into Friday we see zonal flow setting up across the CONUS
at 250mb, with a mid-level ridge shifting across the region at
500mb. On Friday we see the return of southerly flow on the
back-side of this ridge coinciding with a weak Low developing
and moving into central South Dakota. With the return of
southerly flow we`ll see temperatures warming back into the mid
80s to low 90s Friday afternoon, though humidity remains low
with dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We`ll see moisture
arrive with the nocturnal amplification of the LLJ into eastern
Nebraska Friday night into early Saturday with increasing
clouds, and potential for nocturnal storms overnight into early
Saturday.

Models have been trending farther south with nocturnal storm
development and the lingering stationary front into the day on
Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for strong-to-severe
storm development possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
Wherever this sets up, expect a low pressure system to develop
somewhere around southwestern Kansas and ride up along this
stationary boundary, amplifying low-level shear in an
environment with ample moisture and instability along and south
of the front. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting
this potential since Day 5, which shows fairly good confidence
in this potential, so highlight Saturday afternoon-evening as a
period we should watch for more severe storms.

Beyond Saturday, cooler weather settles in for Sunday into early
next week as we see the return of northwesterly flow over the
northern and central Plains. We could still see a few chances
for showers and storms as shortwaves ride down the back-side of
the broad upper-level trough, but moisture will be more limited
with these showers likely not leading to any significant,
meaningful rainfall.

Temperatures trend back up toward Wednesday next week as ridging
out west starts to expand eastward, leading to the return of
southerly flow and moisture advection back into our region. I
wouldn`t expect any additional chances for severe weather beyond
Saturday until at least Wednesday or later in the week next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

KOFK: The first round of storms has moved through the terminal,
leaving us with a lull in rain chances for a few hours. Models
continue to show the possibility of a second line of
showers/storms moving through the area between 15Z-17Z. Rain and
a brief period of gusty winds and a wind shift would be the main
things to watch out for. MVFR conditions improve to VFR by 17Z
as the system moves out of the region. Northwest winds prevail
around 15-20kts after 21Z, decreasing to 5-10kts by 02Z.

KOMA: A few lines of storms continue to move west to east across
eastern Nebraska. Expect these storms to continue to move
through the vicinity of the terminal through shortly after 12Z.
Models continue to show a possible secondary line of storms
moving through between 14Z and 16Z. Expect gusty winds, a
possible wind shift to the west, and potentially heavy rainfall
with these storms. Expect ceilings to improve to VFR by 17Z as
the system moves out of the region. Winds will become
northwesterly around 15-20kts by 16Z, decreasing to around
5-10kts by 01Z.

KLNK: Thunderstorms continue to move across southeastern
Nebraska early this morning. A brief lull in storms is expected
between 12Z and 13Z. Models are showing a few storms developing
over or near the terminal between 13Z and 15Z. Gusty winds and
heavy rainfall would be the main concerns with any additional
storms moving through the area. Ceilings begin to improve
around 15Z-16Z, returning to VFR conditions. Northwest winds
around 15-20kts are expected after 16Z, decreasing to 5-10kts by
01Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

208
FXUS63 KGID 110542
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very near term risk of strong/severe thunderstorms within the
  next few hours over 6-8 counties, with hail as the main
  hazard.

- Windy and drier today, after the early morning thunderstorms,
  as a cold front sweeps across the area.

- Little up and down temperature wise Friday into the weekend
  but it will be cooler on the weekend with at least some
  showers/storm chance favoring later Friday/Saturday.

- More summer-like temperatures by mid next week and trending a
  bit drier overall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Satellite and observations depict a nice upper trough rounding its
way into northern Wyoming. This feature will drive quickly east
across the Dakotas and be the catalyst the first 12 hours of this
forecast period (early Thursday morning). After that, generally
speaking, a tepid northwest flow pattern will eventually bring
cooler temperatures for the weekend and some chance for rain. The
forecast rounds out with upper level ridging and more summerlike
temperatures by mid next week.

Early today, we await a strong low level jet now in central
Kansas to push north into areas east of Highway 281. As that
upper wave and a favorable H250 jet streak move across the
area, they will tap into strong moisture transport and trigger
elevated thunderstorms around 3 AM or so. There has been some
variety in hi-res models in terms of intensity/location of
the storms, through the overall trend of development remains
roughly along/near Highway 6 and I-80, and closer to the
Hastings/Grand Island areas. Strong shear, plenty of instability
(eventually) and steep mid-level lapse rates should result in fairly
rapid develop and the potential for storms to become strong/severe
quickly. The main risk is large hail around 2" in diameter, though
some stones could be bigger. There is an outside risk of localized
flooding mainly from training of storms as they layout in an east-
west fashion. However, we expect a pretty quick eastward move and
only 2-3 hours of more intense storms before they push east of
York/Fillmore/Polk counties by 5-6 AM. This is a very limited area
event, maybe 6-8 counties, but could be briefly intense. Once those
storms move east, we may see some additional non severe
showers/storms linger through mid-morning across south central
Nebraska along/ahead of a cold front, which is now gathering itself
in the Nebraska Panhandle.

The rest of the day today will be marked by strong west northwest
winds gusting up to 40 mph through early evening, but also
solidifying a return to drier air as dewpoints drop to the upper 30s
and 40s. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today and back
to the upper 70s/lower 80s, or slightly below normal. Winds will
drop quickly tonight but rebound to a southerly directly by
Friday afternoon and push temperatures back into the middle and
upper 80s before the next cool down.

Saturday brings a sharp change with a cold front pushing quickly
across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas early in
the day. Don`t be surprised if the current forecast of highs
reaching the lower-middle 80s is lowered with time as a stiff north
wind ushers in a nice June cool down. Depending on the exact timing
of the front, showers and some thunderstorms are possible later
Friday night and Saturday, but they would favor locations east of
Highway 281 moreso than west. There is some uncertainty with the
overall rain chance as some models have very little precipitation,
while others linger precipitation deeper into the day. That
uncertainty translates to later in the day as the front will be a
focus for stronger storms in the afternoon and evening southeast of
a Geneva to Smith Center line. However, some models, such as the
European Model, really push the front through and take the
strong/severe storm risk into eastern and central Kansas. Right now,
the forecast for Saturday kind of splits the middle of everything
(except the stiff breeze) so expect fine-tuning of the specific
details to emerge in the next 24-36 hours.

Post frontal, Sunday looks looks like a decent day for most areas
with lighter winds, low dewpoints (low 40s) and comfortable
temperatures in the 70s. The lingering northwest flow will result in
a mix of clouds and sun. Any time we are in northwest flow this time
of year, the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms seems like
its always there, even with dry low levels and limited instability.
That looks like the case Sunday as an upper way moves into the area
in the afternoon which could spark those showers. The forecast
reflects that small chance in north central Kansas Sunday afternoon,
but don`t be surprised again if more of the area shares in those
afternoon showers.

Technically the forecast is dry after Sunday, though the
aforementioned northwest flow is still influencing the area into
Tuesday. Just throwing that out there, mainly for Monday as some
mid-range models still have a "sprinkly" potential. We should start
a limited warmup Monday and Tuesday by getting back to normal.
After that, upper level heights increase Wednesday and Thursday
suggesting a drier trend and temperatures pushing back into the
90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Currently...

After a bout of severe weather resulting in a notable swath of
straight-line wind gusts into central portions of the forecast
area Tuesday evening...today has brought a much more quiet
day. Upper air and satellite data show west-southwesterly flow
in place across the area...set up on the southern side of
troughing extending back to the north into central Canada. At
the surface, the upper level troughing sliding east is pushing a
surface cool front south across the Central Plains...with
latest obs showing it having moved through all but the far SE
corner of the forecast area. Not really a significant push of
cooler air with this front...it`s more notable features are the
switch to at times gusty NW winds and a drop in dewpoints. We
were sitting under widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 70s at
this time Tuesday...dewpoints currently behind the front are in
the 40s-50s. Satellite showing no shortage of sun across the
area...the exception being some CU developing across SErn
portions of the area. For the rest of this afternoon...models
have been consistent showing thunderstorms developing remaining
SE of the forecast area, across eastern KS into MO/IA...and
that`s what satellite/radar trends have shown over the last
hour.

This evening and tonight...

Overall, hasn`t been any significant changes in the overall
thinking...with the evening hours expected to remain dry. Models
continue to show increasing potential for thunderstorm
development closer to/mainly after midnight tonight and
lingering into the early morning hours. Another wave of mid-
upper level shortwave energy looks to move out onto the Plains
tonight...with an increasing southerly low-level jet developing.
Models showing this LLJ ramping up to around 45-50kts...with
the best convergence/lift along its nose pushing north into the
forecast area. Hi-res models have varied slightly on the exact
timing...with most favoring anytime after 06- 07Z. Also some
uncertainty with the exact location/coverage...most models have
kept the better potential mainly along/north of I-80 and
along/east of HWY 281...but there have been a few just a touch
further south (closer to HWY 6) and west (at least isolated back
into our western fringes). Expectation that any storms will
have the potential to be severe, with models showing MUCAPE
values exceeding 2500 j/kg pushing north with time and good
deeper layer shear...and mostly likely remaining elevated set up
north of the sfc boundary. Large hail (potentially near/larger
than golf balls), damaging winds and heavy rain look to be the
primary hazards. The brunt of activity is expected to shift east
by sunrise Thursday.

Thursday and on into early next week...

Early Thursday morning, mainly 12-15Z...not out of the question
there could be some isolated activity lingering across NNErn
portions of the forecast area...but that is currently expected
to continue pushing east. Once it does...the forecast dries out
for the rest of the day Thursday on into Friday. Models showing
northwestelry flow aloft on Thursday in the wake of the latest
shortwave disturbance...turning more zonal on Friday across a
good chunk of the CONUS, set up between high pressure centered
over srn TX but spread out both east and west...and a larger
low/broad toughing over central Canada. A reinforcing sfc cool
front is expected to push through the region late tonight/Thurs
AM...ushering in stronger NW winds for the day on Thurs and
cooler temps. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH are expected...with
afternoon highs topping out in the mid 70s-low 80s. Those gusty
winds are then expected turn back to the south for Friday...with
warmer temps climbing back into the mid-upper 80s.

At least periodic thunderstorm chances return to the forecast
for the weekend into early next week...but confidence in the
exact timing/track of the upper level shortwave disturbances
driving them isn`t the highest at this point. Some models show
the potential for the first to bring chances in already late
Friday night into the daytime hours on Sat...with questions then
arising with the potential for strong/severe storms later in
the afternoon/evening hours, and if that could impact at least
SErn portions of the area. SPC Day 4 15 percent area currently
clips our SE areas...will see how things trend the next couple
of days. Additional disturbances keep generally low chance PoPs
in the forecast through Mon night...with things potentially
drying out mid-week. Temps Sat through Wed are up and
down...with 80s-90s Sat dropping into the low- mid 70s for Sun-
Mon, climbing back into the 80s-90s for Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

As the nocturnal low-level jet continues to strengthen, thunderstorms
are likely to initiate and impact KEAR and KGRI betweewn 6-10Z. While
there is the potential for some severe weather with these storms, there
is not enough confidence in these hazards to explicitly forecast them
in the TAF. However, periods of near MVFR ceilings and heavy rainfall
leading to reduced visibilties may also occur, illustrated via
the TEMPO group.

After these storms, a front will move through the area, allowing for
the slight chance of showers between 11-13Z. Because of reduced
confidence in the coverage of these showers, opted for the
PROB30 group. Winds will also shift to become more northerly
gusting up to 35kts in the afternoon. Around sunset, skies will
start to clear and winds will weaken.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Moritz
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion