Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

393
FXUS63 KOAX 292334 CCA
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (20%) for isolated showers or storms
  through early this evening. Any storms may produce heavy
  rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
  eastern Nebraska late tonight into Thursday morning. Heavy
  rainfall will again be possible under the strongest storms.

- A more widespread line of thunderstorms is likely to move across
  the region later on Thursday into Friday morning. Damaging wind
  will be possible with the initial line of storms, along with
  heavy rain and small hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current Conditions

The morning convective complex has largely dissipated as of 1 PM
with a few lingering showers remaining. The weak, slow-moving
short wave trough that helped drive this system is centered
over central KS with a slow southeastward progression, and a
generally lessening influence this far north. The morning storms
developed in a rather moist airmass, with low level moisture
feed off the Gulf and a mid/upper level moisture feed around the
ridge from the Baja region. This helped the stronger cells to
produce 2-3" per hour rainfall rates where they stalled. This
atmospheric moisture content is actually expected to increase
slightly in the next 36 hours with the approach of a stronger
short wave trough out of the CA/NV region. This should bring
PWAT of 2-2.2" to parts of the area in advance of the next round
of storms. The incoming western short wave trough will dampen
the upper ridge and cool temperatures a bit over the next few
days, in addition to precip potential.

Through Early Thursday

Some weak smaller-scale forcing will rotate around the ridge
tonight with a slight increase in low level jet speed over
central KS. This will increase moisture transport into western
parts of the forecast area with some LLJ convergence gradually
lifting northeast into the forecast area around sunrise or
shortly thereafter. This should support another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms with potential for pockets
of heavy rain. This area of weak forcing may persist into the
early afternoon hours, with the main question being how
widespread any convective showers/storms can be. Deep forcing is
weak, but capping is very limited and when paired with a deep
moist environment it probably won`t take much forcing to sustain
scattered storms. If convection is more widespread tomorrow, it
may limit daytime heating and instability recovery which would
lessen the late day severe potential...but fewer storms during
the day may warrant a bit more of a damaging wind potential for
late Thursday.

Late Thursday into Friday

The main show is expected on Thursday evening as the stronger
deep layer forcing pushes east. Expect the cold front entering
north central Nebraska to convect along the boundary. This will
likely transition quickly into an MCS as numerous updrafts in
close proximity conglomerate into a single forward propagating
cold pool. The theta-e and MLCAPE axes will extend from that
north central NE convection to the southeast while low level
shear vectors point east or east southeasterly. This would
appear to favor individual outflow surges directed toward the
east southeast while the larger MCS outflow system eats toward
the southeast into the instability axis. That instability does
not extend terribly far east of the Missouri River so the
intensity should wane with eastward progression. The wind and
instability fields with this system appear to be sufficient to
support severe wind in segments, but are not forecast to be
impressive enough to support a persistent high-end wind storm
across a wide expanse. Additionally, the moisture content
suggests that rainfall rates could exceed 2" per hour in heavier
cores, so any training elements will need to be monitored for
flooding potential. Showers or a storm may linger into Friday,
but the trough passes east of the area with subsidence
overtaking and drying out the region by late in the day.

Saturday Into Next Week
A rather weak northeastward extension of the upper ridge axis
from the Four Corners region will keep the local area mainly dry
through Monday or so, with surface high pressure slowly drifting
overhead and then east of the area. Highs will be largely in the
80s to low 90s with lows in the 60s in a less humid airmass. By
late Monday into Tuesday, model guidance is strong in bringing a
glancing influence of a strong Canadian trough with a front
sagging toward northern parts of the area. This will bring
thunderstorm chances if the front makes it this far south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A few spotty showers and storms will linger early in the period,
but confidence in one impacting a TAF site is low. Additional
scattered showers and storms are expected to push through the
area from west to east around 10-18Z, but latest guidance is
trending toward a little less coverage, so kept a dry forecast.
As they move through, a few MVFR ceilings could develop, but
kept SCT mention for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain
southeasterly, with some gusts of 18-23 kts on Thursday. Looking
ahead, expect a line of storms to move southeast through the
area Thursday evening, likely after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

168
FXUS63 KGID 292347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated to scattered non-severe storms will
  occasionally pass through mainly eastern and southeast
  portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning. The best
  potential will peak thursday morning.

- An even more organized cluster of potentially strong to severe
  storms, will pass from northwest to southeast across the area
  between mainly 7PM and 1AM Thursday night.

- The strongest storms Thursday evening/night may bring
  damaging wind gusts up to 60-70MPH, hail up to the size of
  quarters and locally heavy rainfall.

- The next chance of precipitation (15-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night.

- Highs over the weekend will mainly range the 80s, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of next week (upper 80s and
  90s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026


Following the widespread thunder showers this morning, precipitation
chances have generally plummeted for the rest of the day (only 10-
30%; concentrated towards the far eastern and southern portions of
the area). The coverage of any overnight to Friday morning non-
severe storm activity, will primarily impact the eastern to
southeast half of the area (mainly areas east/southeast of the Tri-
Cities). The HRRR and NAMNEST high-resolution models have recently
began to show increasing potential for a broader coverage of these
shower and weak thunderstorms during the the Thursday AM period,
mainly across eastern Nebraska and central and eastern Kansas.
Though precipitation totals are not expected to surpass this
morning`s amounts, locally up to just over 1" of rainfall may be
possible in places through the morning. The better storm potential,
however, will not come until the evening hours.

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the northern
Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity and cold air
advection to the region, helping to increase instability and
buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the area. In addition,
surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave disturbance, will help
organize an around 1006mb surface cyclone across north central
Nebraska and central South Dakota. As this cyclone strengthens
across the afternoon and evening hours, a surface cold front will
undergoing frontogenesis across central Nebraska/Kansas. This
feature will likely serve as the primary mechanism for evening
thunderstorm development, likely driving a line of convection across
a majority of the area from northwest to southeast between mainly
7PM and 1AM. Given the high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE),
steepening low-level lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of
bulk shear (EBWD); the potential for severe weather will remain. The
main concern would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as
60-70MPH. Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger
storms may still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up
to the size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the
full area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central
Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk
(level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the
southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH
during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper
80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the
forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation
chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the
weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet
stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be
expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25-
35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the
weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region.
Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back
down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies,
will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Expecting overall quiet conditions this evening...with the main
concern though this TAF period once again coming later in the
overnight hours and shower/storm chances. Prior to those
chances, have VFR conditions going, with southeasterly winds
around 10 MPH. Models are in decent agreement with the timing,
showing the better chances from around 08-09Z on through mid-
morning on Thursday...kept the PROB30 group going at this point,
as uncertainties remain with the overall coverage of activity.
Not out of the question that if activity does impact the
terminal sites, sub-VFR conditions could occur. Otherwise,
forecast dries back out from mid-morning on through the end of
the period Thursday...winds remain southeasterly, gusts near 20
MPH will be possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion