Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

471
FXUS63 KOAX 312259
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
559 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler conditions are building into the area for the
  weekend.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level low spinning near the
Minnesota/Iowa border with ridging over the Four Corners area.
Sfc analysis indicates the sfc low spinning in central Iowa
near Iowa Falls. The OAX CWA is mostly obscured by wrap-around
overcast skies at about 2,000 feet. A few radar returns over
western Iowa are producing sprinkles at best with iso PoPs
continuing on the far eastern edges of the CWA through about 7pm
this evening.

The primary concern is the low`s affect on our winds, currently
gusting 20-30 knots. Those winds are expected to peak around 35
knots this afternoon and near wind advisory criteria. Have
opted to forgo issuing one, but it is close. Should they
overperform, one might need to be issued later this afternoon.

Humidity has slipped. Dewpoints are down a couple of degrees
from yesterday and are expected to drop by a bigger margin for
Saturday. The NBM`s numbers were too high and I took care of
that. I`ve also increased cloud cover a bit due to the impact
of the elevated wildfire smoke drifting in from the north. That
smoke is forecast to peak over the area around 4am Sunday
morning at 40-60 mg/m2. I added a 25% minimum for cloud cover
late tonight into Sunday and if anything, that`s
underestimating how much sunshine the smoke will be blocking.

.SATURDAY and SUNDAY...

With the continued northwesterly flow and reduced insolation,
temps will fall short of seasonal norms on Saturday. Expect
peaks in the lower to mid-80s.

Sunday should be mostly sunny despite the lingering smoke that
should remain elevated off the sfc. As the sfc low continues
east and the western ridging noses toward Minnesota, winds will
slow and return flow should develop by the afternoon. Highs
will best those of Saturday by a couple of degrees.

.NEXT WEEK...

A Canadian trof plowing east across the southern provinces will
drag a cold front into the area Tuesday-ish and will leave it
stalled in the vicinity. This, working in concert with passing
shortwave energy, should bring regular opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms. Tuesday night`s PoPs peak at 75% for areas
along and north of I-80. Precip amounts could be good as PWATs
will be climbing back into the 2" range thanks to a good
southerly mean wind from the Gulf. Machine learning guidance
suggests that severe weather chances could accompany the rain,
but confidence is too low get too excited just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MVFR cigs have cleared off to the east with clearing skies
expected through this evening. Winds continue to gust 25-30kt
out of the north for a few more hours before relaxing somewhat
overnight, still going 10-15kt overnight. Expect northerly winds
to continue into Saturday, increasing again around 15Z with
gusts 20 to 25kt. We`ll also see smoke move in aloft this
evening and overnight leading to hazy skies but shouldn`t see
significant reductions in visibility at the terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

642
FXUS63 KGID 312324
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs between Friday and Monday will gradually raise a few
  degrees each day back to the upper 80s and 90s.

- The next chance of precipitation (20-60%; increasing towards
  the north) falls Tuesday night for central Nebraska as a cold
  front look possible to sweep through the area.

- Highs may take a 10-15 degree drop heading into
  Tuesday/Wednesday (upper 70s to low 90s). Another mini warm up
  is favored to follow into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026


Following the passage of last nights cold front, a "cooler" and
drier airmass has settled into the area today. A 1008mb surface low
centered across Iowa this afternoon has helped steer the breezy
northerly winds for today (gusts as high as 30-45MPH). These
gusty winds will gradually lighten through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave trough (the
disturbance responsible for developing last nights storms)
continues to shift east and away. This will leave space for a
southwest U.S. ridge to grow and expand up into the Central
Plains area over the weekend. Rising pressure from this building
ridge will help maintain dry conditions as subsidence works to
keep the skies mostly clear. In addition, a mini warm up will
transpire from Friday to Monday as sunny skies and southerly
turning surface winds return (a mix of warm air advection and
diurnal heating). Highs between today and Monday will gradually
increase a few degrees each day, residing mostly in the 90s by
Monday. A few far southeast Nebraska and western Kansas
locations could even near the low triple digits (30- 60%
chance).

The next major pattern change will come Tuesday as a northwest U.S.
trough is favored to push into the central and northern Plains. The
next chance for precipitation in the forecast will come with this
pattern shift Tuesday night as a cold front looks to pass out ahead
of the upper-level disturbance. Our chances for precipitation for
Tuesday night has increased slightly for our Nebraska areas
(20%-40% for areas just north of the state line and up to
50-65% for locations north of I-80). This slight increase in
confidence comes as ensemble model guidance begins to narrows
down on the timing of the arrival of the aforementioned trough.
Given that this event falls outside of the range for higher-
resolution short-term model guidance, we are not able to
provide many additional details in regard to specifics (coverage
or intensity) at this time. This event, however, will be the
areas next best potential for scattered storms.

Model confidence past Tuesday is a little more uncertain (widening
gap between the 25th and 75th NBM percentiles or wider range of
modeled outcomes). This increase in uncertainty comes as the the two
leading LREF clusters begin to show diverging scenarios to how the
mid-week trough may progress. Depending on how long this
feature lingers over the region, its presence will impact the
forecast through the rest of the week. The leading
cluster/scenario (weighted more on the ENS & GEPS ensembles) is
leaning more on a drier and warmer end to next week with the
second leading cluster/scenario (weighted more towards the GEFS)
leans toward a more mild and wetter end to next week. We will
continue to iron out the details for the mid to end of week
forecast as the cone of uncertainty begins to narrow more.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clouds will linger near 5 KFT for the next few hours with
clear skies returning by 01/03Z. Gusty north winds will also
gradually diminish this evening, with gusts to near 30 KTS
possible through 01/01Z...falling to near 8 KTS by 01/03Z as the
atmosphere decouples. More modest northerly breezes...near 12
KTS...along with mainly clear skies are expected for the daytime
hours Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion