Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

323
FXUS63 KOAX 020508
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1208 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold conditions will favor a widespread frost and a freeze
  tonight through early Saturday morning

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (20-40%) Sunday
  night through Wednesday. Highest chance across southeast
  Nebraska/far southwest Iowa Monday night/early Tuesday.

- Temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s Saturday through
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight and Saturday:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows much of the mid/upper
influence continuing to sequester the convective activity to the
Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast while ridging builds to the
west. We find ourselves with increasing heights at the surface with
no cloud cover incoming, making for the most efficient radiational
cooling that we`ve seen over the last week or so. Overnight
temperatures are set to plunge to the upper 20s in northeast
Nebraska and lower 30s in Iowa/southeast Nebraska, with weakening
winds as well. These conditions will make frost formation likely
across the forecast area, with a Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory
in effect overnight.

By tomorrow morning winds will be on the increase and start out
westerly, adding an adiabatic warming component from the slight
downslope flow from the High Plains. Mid/upper heights will also be
on the rise and we`ll benefit by mixing into warmer air as well,
sending highs into the mid-to-upper 60s. Without any better moisture
return from the south, we`ll continue to lean dry, but not windy
enough to cause any major fire concerns (especially with the recent
green-up). Overnight, lows will only fall into the mid-to-upper 40s,
giving flower gardens and other plants a break from any frosty
conditions.

Sunday and Beyond:

Sunday and Monday hold the warmest two days of the forecast, as the
ridge to the west breaks down and its remnants move overhead. A weak
boundary/wind shift will move through the area and try to make for
some low-end rainfall chances that are not expected to amount to
much more than a trace in total where they do end up falling. The
latter half of Monday through Wednesday continue to look like the
best chance that we`ll have for widespread rainfall for the region,
but the last few runs of the deterministic models depict the
stalwart trough to the northeast pivot southward through the region
slightly before a cutoff low arrives from the Great Basin. This has
favored a more southerly extent to the precipitation during this
timeframe, favoring Kansas and Missouri for meaningful rainfall,
while we in Nebraska and Iowa get glances of moisture. This will
turn highs a bit cooler, into the 50s/60s for Tuesday and Wednesday
before warming Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to remain with light and variable
winds out of the west/northwest tonight. They`ll end up out of
the south-southwest on Saturday at 5-10 knots. Late Saturday
evening or during the overnight hours, strong LLWS is expected
to develop. Expect mostly clear skies over the next 24 hours.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

046
FXUS63 KGID 020454
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1154 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late tonight into early Sat AM (1-8 AM), our entire forecast
  area (CWA) goes under either a Freeze Warning or Frost
  Advisory, as low temps are forecast to bottom out 27-36
  degrees most places.

- High confidence continues in a dry weekend (once any
  showers/weak storms fade away this evening), with warmer
  temperatures (highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s) and no
  frost/freeze concerns.

- Precipitation chances early-mid next week: Intermittent
  chances for showers/thunderstorms return mainly Monday
  afternoon through Wednesday. IF we get any stronger
  thunderstorms during this time (not necessarily severe), they
  appear most favored Monday afternoon-evening.

- Temperatures next week: After peaking on Monday (highs near 80
  many areas), especially Tues-Wed bring another decent cool-
  down with highs currently only projected near-60 and overnight
  lows mainly 30s (perhaps some additional frost concerns Tues
  night and/or Wed night?). An upward rebound back to highs
  upper 60s-upper 70s is then expected for Thurs-Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly "major" changes to speak of, with the Key Messages
  above giving a decent overview of the highlights.

- That being said, on the more minor side of things, high temps
  have trended down very slightly for Sunday...but a bit farther
  out they have trended a good 2-5 degrees cooler than previous
  forecast for Wed-Thurs, as the mid-week cool down looks a
  little more pronounced than before.

- All in all though, nothing all that unusual about the next
  week for early May, as on positive notes we: 1) appear to be
  lacking in severe thunderstorm concerns (will need to keep an
  eye on Monday though)...2) Do not currently foresee any
  critical fire weather issues. On a negative note,
  unfortunately rainfall does not look abundant, but hopefully
  at least SOME places can pick up at least 0.25" with the
  intermittent chances mainly Mon-Wed, and the lack of "higher
  end heat" should also help keep soil moisture evaporation to a
  relative minimum.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. May 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM:
Overall, certainly no big surprises today. As expected, isolated
to scattered light showers and a FEW weak thunderstorms have
materialized over our KS counties, while north of the state line
a smattering of sprinkles have developed at least on radar (most
of which probably not reaching the ground given the dry low-
levels).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm a highly amplified
pattern over the U.S., with our Central Plains region residing
under north-northwesterly flow...directed between a pronounced
high pressure ridge extending over several northwestern states,
and an expansive trough dominated much of the Midwest/northeast
states and anchored by a closed low over southeast Canada. On
the smaller scale, a compact shortwave trough is currently
diving due southward out of SD into NE, and is helping provide
lift to get our spotty showers/sprinkles going.

At the surface, a modest pressure gradient emanating southward
from a roughly 1020 millibar high centered over eastern SD,
along with diurnal/daytime mixing, is promoting somewhat-breezy
north winds across our area...commonly sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts
20+ MPH. High temperatures are on track to top out between
60-66 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA.


- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight):
Through at least nightfall (9-10 PM), isolated-to-scattered rain
showers (and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms) will continue in
our south (especially KS), while mainly spotty sprinkles will
continue northward into our Nebraska counties...driven by a
combination of weak instability (CAPE up to a few hundred J/kg)
and upper forcing/lift from the aforementioned wave diving
directly southward through our area. Have extended these fairly
minor precip chances through at least 10 PM especially
near/south of the KS border, with some models suggesting they
may need extended a touch longer and also expanded a bit farther
north. However, no matter what, confidence is fairly high that
even our extreme southern zones should be rain-free no later
than 11pm-Midnight, with skies then clearing efficiently from
north-to-south.


- LATE TONIGHT (post-midnight):
As surface high pressure settles directly over the heart of our
CWA in the presence of clear skies and light/variable direction
breezes (mainly under 5 MPH), the stage will be set for a fairly
ideal radiational cooling situation. As a result, slightly
"undercut" most available/guidance for overnight lows, with most
places forecast to bottom out between 30-34 degrees, and some
upper 20s most favored mainly in our far north-northwest (mainly
north of a Lexington-Greeley line). There is high confidence
that the vast majority of our CWA will see fairly widespread
frost development. As for frost/freeze "headlines", due in part
to neighboring WFO`s North Platte/Goodland opting to "join the
headline game" now that it`s May, decided to do BOTH a Freeze
Warning for roughly the northwest 1/3 of our CWA (counties most
favored to see low temps ~ 30 degrees or slightly colder), while
issuing another Frost Advisory for the remainder of our CWA
(very-slightly-freezing low temps as cold as 30-32 possible in
a few spots, but with most places likely dropping no colder than
32-36 and making frost the MAIN concern instead of a "true"
freeze".


- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
Following the seasonably-chilly/frosty start, a fairly pleasant
and all-but-guaranteed dry day is on tap, with temperatures
warming rather steadily in response to the onset of steady (but
not very strong) west-southwesterly breezes (generally sustained
10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH during the afternoon). High temps were
changed very little and are aimed roughly 10 degrees warmer than
today (most places topping out 70-74 degrees).


- SATURDAY NIGHT:
Continued dry weather and clear/mostly clear skies, with by far
the main difference versus tonight being milder low
temperatures. For much of the night, southerly to westerly
breezes will average 5-15 MPH, which along with the warmer low-
level airmass will keep lows 10+ degrees warmer than
tonight...with most places aimed 40-46 degrees.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
The vast majority of our CWA likely stays dry through these 24
hours, but especially our extreme northern CWA could be brushed
by a few sprinkles/light showers as a weak disturbance passes by
in northwesterly flow aloft (right now we have some 20% chances
in our far north during the evening-overnight). During the
daytime, a weak cold front will pass southward through our CWA,
turning winds northerly-to-easterly at around 10 MPH with
slightly higher gusts. Temperature-wise, highs did come down
very slightly from previous forecast (1-2 degrees) due in part
to these weak front, but we`re still calling for a range from
low-mid 70s north...to upper 70s-low 80s south (most 80+
readings in our KS zones).


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Our weather looks to turn a bit more active again, as increased
forcing/upper lift from disturbances dropping down from the
north and also riding in from the west (primary upper lows
centered over the Great Lakes region and also southern CA/AZ
region) will team up to drive a somewhat stronger surface cold
front southward through our region...sparking increased chances
for at least isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. There
is still some model discrepancy on exactly WHEN this front
passes through (will it be afternoon or evening?), but there are
hints that at least modest instability will build ahead of it,
with early projections from NAM/GFS suggesting anywhere from
500-1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE getting into especially the
southern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA. This could bring a threat for at
least a few strong (MAYBE marginally severe?) storms to mainly
our southern-southeast CWA Monday afternoon and/or evening, so
this will bear watching and it will be interesting to see if SPC
opts to assign a formal Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on
tonight`s upcoming Day 3 outlook. At any rate, once we get past
Monday evening, cooler/more stable air enters our area, keeping
any precip into Tuesday as more benign rain/rain showers.
Temperature-wise, we`re currently calling for a 15-20 degree
drop in high temps between Monday (most areas mid 70s-low 80s)
and Tuesday (near-60). IF skies happen to clear enough (still
very much a question mark), perhaps we have some frost concerns
for Tuesday night especially in our far western/northern
counties.


- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
In the big picture aloft, we look to reside under mainly
northwesterly flow aloft, and thus subject to occasional weak
waves and at least spotty rain shower/weak thunderstorm
potential. Officially, our only mentionable (20+%) rain chances
are right away Wednesday as the main larger scale trough axis
swings through. However, despite our going dry forecast for
Thurs-Fri, the latest ECMWF/GFS suggests it`s no guarantee to
stay this way. Temperature-wise, a steady warm-up is currently
projected over the course of these 3 days...with highs rising
from upper 50s/near-60 on Wednesday...to mid 60s-low 70s
Thursday...to mid-upper 70s Friday. Like Tues night-Wed AM, Wed
night-Thurs AM currently bear watching for possible frost or
marginal freeze possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (near 100%) in VFR conditions through the
period. Mostly clear skies will prevail, with only a few high
clouds returning Saturday evening.

Light and variable winds turn to the west for Saturday, and then
to the SSW for Saturday evening. A period of LLWS is possible
Saturday night, but this is expected to begin after 06Z Sunday.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ062>064-073>077-
     082>087.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060-061-072.
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion