Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

192
FXUS63 KOAX 151901
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
201 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for
  today, with spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two possible
  after 10 PM.

- Our next notable chance for any thunderstorms appears to be
  on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western
  Iowa.

- Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire
  danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Broad troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is evident
in afternoon water vapor imagery, with ridging continuing to hold
over the Pacific Coast. A ridge of high surface pressure rules over
our weather today, with westerly winds and dry weather making for a
beautiful day to be outside. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to
low 80s, with only a few gusts to 20-25 mph expected this afternoon,
primarily across northeast Nebraska. A frontal system is inbound for
the late evening/overnight hours, that will really struggle to
amount to much more than a sprinkle or two across far northeast
Nebraska and northwest Iowa thanks to measly instability and
moisture as it passes.

Tomorrow will see temperatures increase, with southwesterly to
westerly winds developing during the morning hours as a warm front
takes shape to the west. Strong warm air advection and lift near the
front itself will try to spur on some afternoon showers and a
stray rumble of thunder, but chances for any meaningful,
widespread rainfall remain low.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Wednesday continues to be of concern on a few fronts: the heat,
storm chances, and potential fire danger across northeast
Nebraska. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the
peak of heat over the next 7 days, with the edge of it being
taken off by the passage of a front that helps scour out
moisture and increase winds locally. Those winds are expected to
gust to 35-45 mph, with humidity values being low enough to
drive very high to potentially extreme fire danger across
northeast Nebraska during the afternoon hours. That passing
front will also help drive shower/storm chances to the
northeast, and later in the afternoon to the southeast. The
timing of the front will make it difficult for any severe threat
to linger very long during the afternoon hours before it slips
to the southeast of the area. It appears that the storms that do
from will quickly grow upscale, muting the upwards potential
for hazards while still keeping everything on the board before
they move out.

Winds will take a bit to calm down but once they do, a beautiful day
in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees will carry us into the end
of the week. Highs do trend upwards Friday/Saturday, with a more
summer-like feel to the day-to-day forecast -- including increasing
potential for late evening/overnight storms plowing eastward from
the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
westerly winds starting to gusts to 20 kts near KOFK, with
speeds of 15-20 kts anticipated at KOMA/KLNK later this
afternoon. Winds will once again slow tonight, shifting
southwesterly before increasing in speed out of the northwest
before sunrise tomorrow as a wind shift passes through. Short-
term models suggest that we may have some light rain chances
(20%) pass through with or shortly behind the wind shift, but
they will remain out of the TAFs until confidence increases.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

229
FXUS63 KGID 151732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely dry Mon-Fri work week.

- Seasonal temperatures either side of normal (tad cooler, tad
  warmer, tad cooler) with a comfortable airmass thanks to lower
  dewpoints (though likely a bit higher late Tuesday/early
  Wednesday)

- Honestly, the next shot for decent showers/storms comes next
  weekend, possibly late Friday night, but more likely Satudray
  night, and it may include the for strong to severe storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The early morning weather map depicted surface high pressure
near Scottsbluff Nebraska and ridging its way southeast into
northern Kansas. Skies were clear or mostly clear with some
mid clouds still streaming in from northeast Colorado and
across southwest Nebraska. A weak upper short wave was moving
southeast into western Iowa and spreading weak subsidence into
south central Nebraska. Temperatures are cool again this
morning, ranging from 50 to 60 degrees.

As the key messages mention, the Monday-Friday work is "mostly"
dry. The exception is tonight when another upper shortwave,
with a bit more "umph" and a weak front slides southeast
across the region. A weak south/southwest low level jet (LLJ)
forms ahead of the surface front with some low end MuCape and
CAMS models suggesting at least non-zero chance for isolated
showers or even a rumble of thunder after 10 PM. The forecast
reflects this with a 15-25% type rain chance. This seems most
likely to occur southeast of Hastings. Rain amounts will be
minimal, such as trace to a few hundredths, and very sparse
overall.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, and Tuesday will be a
particularly nice day. The late Monday night front will shift
winds to the north Tuesday morning, but winds will quickly
return to the south by evening...ahead of the next front set to
push through the area Wednesday morning. Though the front is
stronger and it will pull more moisture back into the region
late Tuesday night, warming in the mid-levels will act as a cap,
and force development of thunderstorms well east of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Look for a much
warmer night Tuesday night (lows in the 60s) and a quick warmup
Wednesday as fairly strong west/northwest winds mix the lower
atmosphere. However, we have lowered temperatures a touch (still
above 90 many areas) with the idea that there is decent cold
advection as early as late morning and lasting through the
afternoon/evening. High temperatures Wednesday may well go lower
by a few degrees with subsequent forecasts. Winds are probably
underdone for Wednesday afternoon giving the strong downward
momentum transfer and even "old-timer" numerical guidance
suggesting 30-35 mph wind gusts are possible, if not likely.

After the midweek cold front passes, temperatures dip back to
slightly below normal Thursday with sunshine, comfortable
dewpoints and a north breeze. Friday will be dry but becomes a
transition day as southernly winds return, low-level moisture
slowly increases and and temperatures sneak up into the middle
and upper 80s.

On Friday night, there are early signs LLJ will form and start
to push more unstable air north overnight which may result in
some overnight thunderstorms. This scenario seems more likely
Saturday night as a strong southerly flow sets up across
Central Plains thanks to surface low pressure and a shortwave
moving east across the Dakotas. Precipitation chances look
pretty good at this point, centered mostly on Saturday night
night, keeping in mind this has been a trend in the models for
at last a few days. If this timing holds, another front would
push across the area on Fathers Day continuing the rain chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

There will be a few opportunities for sprinkles or light rain
showers this week, but widespread or "meaningful" rain is not
expected. The 12Z global ensembles show a 60-90% chance for less
than 0.10" of total rainfall through Friday.

The first opportunity for sprinkles will be tonight into Monday
morning, followed by another opportunity for spotty showers and
weak t-storms Monday night.

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek (90s to low 100s
on Wed). That said, humidity remains quite low through
Wednesday, so heat index values should remain below 100 degrees
for the entire area. A shortwave will move through the region
on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain/t-storms should remain
to our east. This shortwave will bump temperatures down a bit
for Thursday, but near to above- normal temperatures return for
the weekend.

Ensembles continue to advertise reasonably high chances for
rain/t-storms returning next weekend (June 20-21st) as a
shortwave moves through the central/northern Plains. Of course,
details remain pretty uncertain at this time range, this could
feature at least some severe weather. The 00Z CSU-MLP severe
probs have a 5% contour across much of the region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Westerly winds will persist
throughout the day today at both terminals. Winds overnight will
become lighter and more southwesterly. During the overnight
hours and into the morning Tuesday, wind will be light and
variable. There is a chance for thunderstorms south and east of
the terminals, the terminals are expected to be dry with no
thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion