Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

644
FXUS63 KOAX 201048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with temperatures
  near-freezing for parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to
  potentially extreme fire danger from Monday through Thursday
  for portions of the area.

- Our next weather system arrives on Thursday. Showers and
  thunderstorms are possible for much of the area. There is a
  low (15%) chance of severe storms for portions of area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The large, slow-moving trough that resulted in our cooler
weather is finally clearing the area as it continues to
translate east from Ontario/Quebec into the Northeast.
Concurrently, an upper-level ridge is beginning to build towards
the Great Plains. The effects of these changes will begin to be
showcased by Monday afternoon. In the meantime, temperatures
cool into the 30s across much of the area with near-freezing
temperatures for some by Monday morning. With the building
ridge, southerly winds return to the region. This helps push
temperatures into the middle and upper 70s by Monday afternoon.
It will be a dry south wind though, as a result very high fire
to locally extreme fire weather is possible, particularly over
portions of northeast Nebraska. That being said, Red Flag
criteria is not currently expected, but elevated fire weather
conditions will occur. The warming trend continues on Tuesday as
80s return to the area. Little change in overall moisture is
anticipated, so very high fire danger remains, though light
winds should limit these concerns. Our next weather system will
begin to approach the region by Wednesday. As a large upper-
level trough approaches the Great Plains, strong lee troughing
will commence. While increasing moisture will begin to push into
the region, it remains warm, relatively dry, and windy with
temperatures in the 80s. Near wind-advisory level southerly
winds may develop and support continue very high fire danger.
Increasing moisture return may help limit this threat though.

Thursday marks the anticipated return of active weather. As a
leading shortwave trough ejects out into the Great Plains, it
quickly lifts north through the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
An area of low pressure will coincide with this feature with a
cold front and/or dryline extending southwest into our area.
Latest forecast model trends has this front bisecting the area
near the Missouri River by Thursday afternoon. Warm, dry, and
windy conditions behind the front may support very high to
potentially extreme fire danger. Ahead of the front, a warm,
moist environment may potentially be supportive of severe
weather. At this time there is a low (15%) chance of severe
thunderstorms over portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa. The cold front is anticipated to push through the area on
Friday, bringing cooler and drier weather back into the
forecast. While the cooler weather may continue into next
weekend, additional shortwave troughs may support additional
showers and thunderstorms chances. Overall, early indications
are for western CONUS longwave troughing heading into next
weekend and potentially lasting into the following week. In this
event, expect an active weather pattern across portions of the
Great Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions continue at the terminals through the forecast
period. Southeast winds persist this morning, becoming southerly
after 21Z. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon, sustained
around 10-15kts. Expect LLWS to develop after midnight, with
better chances of impacts to the terminals after 04Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

309
FXUS63 KGID 201059
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect 12-9pm today due to the combination
  of southerly winds gusting 20-30mph and low afternoon relative
  humidity.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through Thursday with
  highs in the upper 70s to low 90s.

- Near-Critical to Critical fire weather conditions are possible
  across portions of the area Wednesday-Friday.

- Low chance (15-25%) for precipitation arrives Wednesday night
  (west of Highway 183) and Thursday afternoon/evening (Highway
  81 and east).

- Cooler weather arrives Friday behind a cold front, with
  additional chances for precipitation (20-45%) this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Skies are clear across the area this morning. Where winds remain
elevated (gusting 20mph) temperatures are still in the 40s,
with temperatures dropping into the 30s where winds are lighter.
Aloft northwesterly flow sits over the area with a ridge over
the western Rockies and troughing over the eastern U.S.
Southerly flow at the surface develops over the area today ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs today will climb into
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Breezy southerly winds gusting
20-30mph are expected today across the area. Low afternoon
relative humidity values (10-20%) combined with the breezy winds
will result in widespread near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions across the area. In collaboration with
neighbors, a Red Flag Warning was issued from 12pm to 9pm for
the entire area. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s

Warmth continues on Tuesday as ridging builds over the area. Highs
will soar into the 80s and low 90s, warmest across southwestern
portions of the area. Light winds and sunny skies make for an
overall warm but pleasant day. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
80s. Gusty southerly winds are expected across the area on
Wednesday, with gusts of 35-45mph. The gusty winds could result
in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions (see Fire
Weather section for more details).

A trough moves into the Plains Wednesday evening-night, with scattered
thunderstorm development possible along a dryline in western
Nebraska. These storms could move into far western portions of
the area Wednesday night, though the best chances remain west of
the area. Additional chances for precipitation arrive Thursday
afternoon along the cold front/dryline but this looks to be
limited to far eastern portions of the area (Highway 81 and
east).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. East-southeast winds
will shift to the south this morning, becoming southerly around
noon. Southerly winds sustained 10-15kts and gusting around
20kts are expected from the afternoon hours through the early
morning hours on Tuesday. Around 3-5z LLWS is forecast to
develop as the Low Level Jet Strengthens. LLWS weakens around
09z as the Low Level Jet veers east of KGRI/KEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Highs today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the
area. This will result in afternoon relative humidity values
dropping to 20% or less, driest along/west of Highway 183. As
the atmosphere mixes this afternoon, southerly winds gusting
20-30mph are possible across the area. There remains some
uncertainty on whether or not the area will reach true critical
conditions with gusts over 25mph, but at least widespread near-
critical conditions are expected. Given dry fuels, low humidity
and winds near critical criteria, a Red Flag Warning was issued
for the entire area 12-9pm.

Warm weather continues on Tuesday, with highs in the 80s to low
90s. Increasing moisture advection keeps relative humidity
values at or above 25% across southeastern portions of the area
(southeast of the Tri-Cities). The lowest dewpoints look to be
along and northwest of the Tri-Cities at 10-20%. Winds will be
lighter on Tuesday across most of the area, with gusts below
20mph. The strongest winds (gusts 20-25mph) look to be
along/southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. With
the strongest winds expected to overlap with the highest RH,
fire weather concerns are low on Tuesday.

Moisture advection increases further on Wednesday, keeping relative
humidity values at or above 25% across the area despite highs
in the 80s. Despite the higher RH, southerly winds gusting
35-45mph will result in at least elevated fire weather concerns
to the area. If the atmosphere mixes greater than currently
forecast (lower RH) an area of near-critical to critical
conditions may develop given the strong/gusty winds.

A dryline moves through the area Wednesday night with the area
under a drier airmass in place on Thursday. Afternoon relative
humidity values on Thursday will fall to 10-20%, lowest across
northwestern portions of the area. Breezy winds gusting 20-30mph
could result in an area of near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions, though the exact area of strongest winds is
uncertain at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion