Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

241
FXUS63 KOAX 111118
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
518 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mix of clouds and sun today with highs in the 40s to near 50F
  west of the Missouri River, and mid 30s to near 40F east.

- Warm temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday (50s to near
  60F) with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Gusty northwest winds
  expected Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday (highs in the mid 30s to low
  40s). Next best chance for precipitation expected sometime
  late Thursday into Friday (20 to 40% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

07z GOES-19 nighttime microphysics shows mostly clear skies across
OAX this morning. Clouds are observed just to the west of the area
where a weak H5 wave is located. 08z RAP objective analysis shows
the wave over the western Dakotas, riding the eastern periphery of a
582dam ridge where northwesterly flow is observed. Latest sfc
analysis shows sfc high pressure dominating much of Nebraska into
far western Iowa early this morning. The clear skies have resulted
in temperatures cooling to the mid teens to low 20s.

The sfc high will move away from the forecast area this morning
while the mid level wave approaches from the west. Only expecting a
few mid to high level based clouds though from the feature with dry
conditions prevailing today. An H8 baroclinic zone pushes though the
day as well, and the ensuing warm air advection should help push
highs to near 50F across far northwestern portions of our forecast
area, while slightly cooler highs are expected for the rest of
eastern Nebraska (low to mid 40s) and western Iowa (mid to upper
30s). Winds will become a bit breezy too from the southwest at 20 to
25 mph as we`ll be on the northwest side of the sfc high by then.

Late tonight into Monday morning, another series of waves eject from
the top of the H5 ridge near Montana southeast into the Dakotas and
Nebraska. While some midlevel moisture transport from the Pacific is
noted, forcing remains nebulous. A few CAM members develop light
reflectivity echoes across far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa
Monday, but forecast BUFKIT soundings show substantial dry air
from H7 to the sfc so just expecting some mid to high level
based cloudiness from the disturbance. Highs Monday warm to the
50s for most locations west of the Missouri River were warm air
advection once again ensues. A few of our far northwest areas
could reach just shy of 60F, while slightly cooler temperatures
in the upper 40s are expected east of the Missouri River. Lows
Monday night cool to the 30s for most locations, while far
northeast Nebraska stays warmer in the 40s.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

One last warm day is expected Tuesday with high temperatures of 60F
across our western areas, and widespread mid to upper 50s for the
rest of the area. An H5 wave will eject from Saskatchewan and
Manitoba southeast into Minnesota and Wisconsin throughout the
day. Sfc cyclogenesis ensues with the 992 mb sfc low deepening
over the Great Lakes. A tight pressure gradient and strong H8
jet sets up over much of the Northern Plains resulting in gusty
northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph, primarily across northeast
Nebraska with gusts of 20 to 25 mph expected for the rest of the
area. A ribbon of vorticity associated with the H5 low will
swing through the area as does a frontal boundary. A few of the
ECMWF and GEFS ensembles develop a light band of QPF over the
area late in the afternoon and evening tied to these features.
NBM extended is currently dry with under 10% unmentionable PoPs
at this time.

By Wednesday, the front will have made its way through helping cool
temperatures to the mid 30s across northeast Nebraska into southwest
Iowa, while highs in the low 40s are expected for the remainder of
the area. Dry conditions are currently forecast, but guidance does
show a lobe of vorticity and resultant wave ejecting southeast from
northern Manitoba into the Plains. Similar to Tuesday, a few
ensembles and deterministic guidance develop light QPF early in the
day, but this should be somewhat suppressed by an approaching sfc
high. Breezy winds may linger too.

Thursday and Friday will see an stronger wave eject from Alberta and
Saskatchewan toward the Dakotas. Differences still exist with model
guidance regarding exact track, but a sfc low does form and track
southeast. Guidance suggests precip developing with the feature,
clipping far northeast Nebraska Thursday (15% chance) with lingering
precip on Friday (20 to 40% chance of snow) on the backside of the
low for most of northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa. Obviously
we are still several days out so expect PoP placement to change
within the upcoming days. Highs Thursday rebound to the 40s to near
50F but cool to the mid 30s to low 40s Friday. Winds will be gusty
too from the northwest both days. Much cooler air at H8 arrives for
Saturday with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the
TAF cycle at all three terminals. Winds will turn to the
southwest today becoming breezy in the afternoon with gusts up
to 20 kts. Winds weaken and turn more westerly after 05z. A
period of low level wind shear will affect KOMA after 02z
through at least 05z. Recent model guidance tries to develop a
few to scattered cloud deck around 1,500 ft, but confidence in
that scenario occurring remains rather low (~10% chance).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

658
FXUS63 KGID 111200
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today and Monday will be very mild for mid-January. Tuesday
  will still be warm, but will trend a little breezier.

- There are only low-end chances for precipitation Tuesday
  night into Wednesday (mainly rain) and on Friday (mainly
  snow).

- There is 60% chance to see gusts of at least 45 MPH on
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 408 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Some near-term models hint at the potential for some fog this
morning, but scattered high clouds will likely keep this very
localized (or prevent it entirely).

Temperatures again reach the 40s and 50s today with relatively
light southwest winds. Monday and Tuesday will trend even
warmer, and most locations should reach the 60s by Tuesday.
Unfortunately the warmth on Tuesday will be accompanied by
increasing northwesterly wind. Tuesday is still on-track to
break record warm low temperature. The record is 35 degrees, and
the latest forecast is 37 degrees.

A shortwave moving southward through the central Plains may
bring some light precipitation to parts of the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. That said, the latest model consensus
still keeps PoPs below 15% for Tuesday night. Given relative
warmth, precipitation would be primarily rain, possibly mixed
with a little snow.

Another trough arrives Thursday night into Friday, bringing in
some colder air, wind, and another low chance for precipitation
(mainly snow). The EPS has backed off a touch on wind gusts for
Friday, but the latest NBM still highlights a 60% chance for at
least portions of the area to see gusts over 45 MPH on Friday.

After a couple cooler days to end this week, ensembles favor
above-normal temperatures to return for the following week
(January 18-24). It is unlikely to be as warm as the beginning
of January, but will still keep us on-track for one of the
mildest Januarys on-record. Snow chances also look pretty
meager until maybe the end of the following week (Jan 23-24) as
well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Currently...

What has been a dry day for the forecast area up until now will
be ending for northern portions, as a swath of light snow
continues to creep in from the north. Looking aloft, upper air
and satellite data show an area of low pressure spinning over
the northern MN/WI border, with a trough axis extending SSW
through IA/MO and into OK. A strong upper level jet streak
nosing south on the backside of the main low is helping drive
this activity, and with the lack of moisture to work with, it`s
been on the light side. At the surface, an accompanying cold
front has been swinging through the region, ushering in gusty NW
winds. Most gusts have been in the 25-35 MPH range, but here
has been an occasional gust closer to 40-45 MPH. Between the
increasing cloud cover and cooler air advecting in this
afternoon, temps across the NNErn half of the area have leveled
off/dropped this afternoon (highs will end up being in the upper
30s- low 40s)...further SW still seeing plenty of sun (at least
for a bit longer), has reached into the low 50s.

This evening into Sunday...

The potential for light snow (mainly flurries) will continue to
sink south the rest of this afternoon and early
evening...mainly impacting out south central NE counties. Not
expecting any notable accumulation or impacts from this
activity...which is expected to end mid-late evening (possibly
earlier). The rest of the overnight hours tonight remains dry.
The current gusty winds will taper off tonight, dropping below
10 MPH, turning more westerly with time as a ridge of high
pressure slides east through the area. Cloud cover should also
diminish, especially after midnight...overnight lows are
forecast to drop into the mid teens to low 20s.

Lower amplitude northwesterly flow sets up across the region for
Sunday...with the forecast remaining dry, and partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies. Winds are lighter than today (closer to
10-15 MPH)...out of the WSW as high pressure settles into
eastern portions of the Srn Plains and a trough of low pressure
extends from the central High Plains up through the Dakotas. The
cooler airmass shifts further east with time...and together
with the WSW winds and more sun, a bump is expected in
temps...with forecast highs still in the mid 40s east to mid 50s
west.

New work week...

Overall, compared to 24 hours ago, there really hasn`t been a
significant changes to the forecast through the new work week.
Models remain in pretty good agreement looking big-picture,
broad...showing the upper level pattern remaining generally
northwesterly, with varying degrees of amplitude with time. The
start of the week continues what starts on Sunday, lower
amplitude flow aloft, with broad troughing over the East Coast
and high pressure just off the CA coast.

Starting roughly Tuesday night and continuing through the end of
the week, models continue to show the potential for a couple
of stronger upper level waves to dig SSE out of central Canada
and into central/eastern portions of the CONUS, driving a much
more amplified pattern across the CONUS as high pressure builds
north along the West Coast. At this point, models continue to
show neither of these systems (roughly Tue night-Wed AM and
again Friday-ish) being notable precipitation makers for the
forecast area...in fact, the forecast for Monday-Saturday
remains largely dry. Better chances for precipitation currently
look to be focused just off to our east...but it`s only
Saturday, still plenty of time to iron out details depending on
model trends.

As far as temperatures go...the start of the week sees the
return of above normal temperatures, with Monday in the mid
50s-near 60 and Tuesday in the low 60s. Normal highs for this
time of year are mid 30s to right around 40. At this point not
anticipating any record highs, but current forecast flirts with
Warm Low Temp records for the 13th (Tuesday)...forecast for both
GRI/HSI is a low of 36, record for both is 35 (set in 2002 for
GRI, 1987 for HSI) From Wednesday on...these upper level waves
will usher in colder air, and especially for Friday, stronger
winds. Wednesday highs fall back into the 40s, and after a brief
warm up Thursday, the next push of colder air drops Fri-Sat
more into the 30s. The timing of the main pushes of NW winds
looks to be Wednesday and again Friday...with ECMWF ensemble
data still showing probabilities of 50 kts/58 MPH around 10-30
percent for a decent portion of our south central NE counties.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Increasing high clouds should prevent any fog from developing
this morning. SCT-BKN high clouds continue through the morning
before clearing out in the afternoon and evening.

SW winds gust 15-20kts late this morning into the afternoon.
Winds turn to the WNW tonight.

&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion