63°F
Updated:
8/1/2026
01:30:00am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
856 FXUS63 KOAX 010420 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and milder conditions are building into the area for the weekend. - Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through at least Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Satellite shows the unseasonably deep surface low spinning to our east generating the gusty winds across our area this evening. We`ll see surface winds weaken as the boundary layer decouples over the next few hours, though winds should stay around 10-15 mph overnight out of the north. Skies will be clearing of clouds over the next several hours, but we`ll also see wildfire smoke out of Canada and the Pacific Northwest get pulled in leading to hazy skies for the next few days. Looking at the upper-level pattern, the trough associated with the Low to our east will slide more east into the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Central Plains leading to warming temperatures over western Nebraska. The good news for us is that the ridge axis never really pushes through keeping the heat to our west. Because of this, we`ll maintain milder temperatures through the weekend into early next week with highs in the lower 80s on Saturday and mid-80s to low-90s Sunday and Monday. A trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska pushes into interior Canada squashing down the ridge and bringing a front through on Tuesday. This will bring our next chance for rain starting late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This front appears to stall across our area triggering additional chances for showers and storms through Thursday as shortwaves aloft interact with this front. Machine Learning products from NSSL suggest some potential for severe weather as the front initially arrives on Tuesday, but a better threat with the shortwave triggering storms on Thursday that finally pushes it out of our area. A lot of details still to work out, so just monitor these periods for now. Confidence in forecast trends beyond Thursday drops off quite a bit going into the end of the week next week as a fairly baroclinic pattern appears to set up over the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance trends back warmer which seems reasonable for now. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 MVFR ceilings are gradually improving to VFR from west to east late this evening. KOMA should return to VFR between 05-07Z, with VFR conditions then expected at all terminals through the remainder of the forecast period. Northerly winds will decrease below 12 kts at KOFK overnight, while gusts of 18-22 kts persist at KOMA and KLNK. Winds will strengthen again late Saturday morning before falling below 12 kts at all terminals Saturday evening. Wildfire smoke will move in overnight leading to hazy skies, though significant visibility reductions are not expected. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
334 FXUS63 KGID 010601 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - High temps will gradually edge back upward through Monday...eventually climbing back up into the upper 80s-mid 90s in most of our area. - Our next rain/thunderstorm chances look to arrive a little sooner than it appeared 24 hours ago...possibly as early as late Mon night-Tuesday daytime. However, the overall-highest chances/most widespread coverage are currently focused Tues night-Wed AM. - Highs may take a 10-15 degree drop heading into Tuesday/Wednesday (upper 70s to low 90s). Another mini warm up is favored to follow into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Following the passage of last nights cold front, a "cooler" and drier airmass has settled into the area today. A 1008mb surface low centered across Iowa this afternoon has helped steer the breezy northerly winds for today (gusts as high as 30-45MPH). These gusty winds will gradually lighten through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave trough (the disturbance responsible for developing last nights storms) continues to shift east and away. This will leave space for a southwest U.S. ridge to grow and expand up into the Central Plains area over the weekend. Rising pressure from this building ridge will help maintain dry conditions as subsidence works to keep the skies mostly clear. In addition, a mini warm up will transpire from Friday to Monday as sunny skies and southerly turning surface winds return (a mix of warm air advection and diurnal heating). Highs between today and Monday will gradually increase a few degrees each day, residing mostly in the 90s by Monday. A few far southeast Nebraska and western Kansas locations could even near the low triple digits (30- 60% chance). The next major pattern change will come Tuesday as a northwest U.S. trough is favored to push into the central and northern Plains. The next chance for precipitation in the forecast will come with this pattern shift Tuesday night as a cold front looks to pass out ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Our chances for precipitation for Tuesday night has increased slightly for our Nebraska areas (20%-40% for areas just north of the state line and up to 50-65% for locations north of I-80). This slight increase in confidence comes as ensemble model guidance begins to narrows down on the timing of the arrival of the aforementioned trough. Given that this event falls outside of the range for higher- resolution short-term model guidance, we are not able to provide many additional details in regard to specifics (coverage or intensity) at this time. This event, however, will be the areas next best potential for scattered storms. Model confidence past Tuesday is a little more uncertain (widening gap between the 25th and 75th NBM percentiles or wider range of modeled outcomes). This increase in uncertainty comes as the the two leading LREF clusters begin to show diverging scenarios to how the mid-week trough may progress. Depending on how long this feature lingers over the region, its presence will impact the forecast through the rest of the week. The leading cluster/scenario (weighted more on the ENS & GEPS ensembles) is leaning more on a drier and warmer end to next week with the second leading cluster/scenario (weighted more towards the GEFS) leans toward a more mild and wetter end to next week. We will continue to iron out the details for the mid to end of week forecast as the cone of uncertainty begins to narrow more. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Odds strongly favor the vast majority of the period (at least 90 percent of it) featuring VFR conditions under clear skies, and there is 100 percent confidence that the entire period stays precipitation-free. The only possible "catches" involve a low probability for brief sub-VFR visibility and an ever lower chance for brief MVFR ceiling later this morning (more on this below). As for winds, they will be a minimal issue, with direction through much of the period generally northerly before becoming variable/light Saturday evening. Sustained speeds will register at-or-below 10KT the majority of the time, but the afternoon hours will feature modest gusts up to around 16-17KT. - Low probability for brief sub-VFR ceiling/visibility: While odds favor neither of these things becoming much of an issue, at least a brief period of sub-VFR visibility in light fog cannot be completely ruled out mainly 10-14Z, and at least a brief instance or two of MVFR ceiling also cannot be completely ruled out mainly 10-17Z. Have maintained prevailing VFR in TAFs, but did opt to "hint" at both possibilities with "6SM BR" and "FEW015" groups. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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