Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

795
FXUS63 KOAX 071721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon
  and evening across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with
  the potential for wind and hail.

- The threat for severe weather increases slightly on Saturday
  with the potential for a complex of thunderstorms producing
  damaging winds across Nebraska and Iowa.

- Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend into early next
  week with more locations likely hitting 90 degrees on Sunday
  and Monday.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only
  a small amount reaching the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

With weak high pressure across the Ohio Valley and a surface
trough across the High Plains, southeast surface winds have held
steady tonight across central Nebraska. However, across eastern
portions of the state the winds are very light and dewpoint
depressions are only 1-4 degrees. This will set the stage for
fog/low stratus through at least the early morning. We think
there will be just enough mixing to prevent widespread dense
fog, but there could be some low spots with poor visibility. The
RAP hydrolapse is favorable for fog across far eastern NE and
western IA through sunrise.

Early morning convection is looking more likely early this
morning near or just northeast of the forecast - likely where
SD/MN/IA come together. 1000-2000 MUCAPE and ~35kts of 0-6 bulk
shear suggest the potential for a few strong to severe storms
with this early round of storms. The forcing along an advancing
cold front is better north of the area this morning. The front
is expected to make steady progress through the day, and we`ll
need to watch for development back to the southwest along the
boundary this afternoon. As it stands now, we keep most of the
PoPs in western IA (15-30%), but far eastern NE is still in
play. Of note, we raised sky cover a bit (even after the morning
stratus) because there will be a veil of smoke aloft today.
This can sometimes cause us to be 2-4 degrees too warm on high
temperatures, and it would also knock the suface-based
instability back just a bit.

Saturday still looks to bring a better chance for more
widespread thunderstorms and also an increasing risk for severe
weather with a damaging wind threat. Considerable model spread
in both the global models and hi-res convective allowing models
remain, but western IA looks more in higher confidence zone at
this point - especially for QPF totals. There is also a timing
issue with convective initiation earlier in the day, perhaps
with a weakening trend through the peak heating hours, and then
strengthening with upscale growth as storms reach their
potential once they cross the Missouri River in the late
afternoon / early evening.

After a couple warmer days on Sunday and Monday, the ridging
eases back and a more zonal flow returns with the upper jet
sagging farther south across the northern CONUS. That`ll be a
cooler and relatively wet pattern. This means early signs of
optimism for the drought stricken areas of Nebraska, Colorado,
and Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions have returned to the region this afternoon. A
weak cold front has entered northeast Nebraska and will slowly
slide southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Winds ahead of the front are from the southwest, then
shift to northwest and north behind the front. Winds gradually
become northeasterly then easterly overnight into Saturday
morning. Wildfire smoke aloft has overspread much of the
northern Plains. At this time, any smoke is not anticipated to
cause aviation impacts. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across central Nebraska Saturday morning, before
tracking east into eastern Nebraska. Confidence in timing and
location of any precipitation and the duration of this activity
remains highly uncertain. Forecast models differ substantially
with their solutions. Will forgo any mention of precipitation in
the TAF until confidence increases.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

461
FXUS63 KGID 071744
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot/humid weather is expected through the weekend, with high
  temperatures rising into the 90s and even triple digits. Heat
  index values soaring above 100 degrees is possible (30-60%),
  particularly in north central Kansas.

- Showers/thunderstorms are possible Saturday morning and again
  Saturday evening/night. There is a low chance that some of
  these evening storms may be strong to marginally severe.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return to portions of the area
  each day next week, along with a cooling trend in
  temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Skies may appear hazy today thanks to some upper-level smoke
being transported from the Pacific Northwest. Warm and humid
conditions are expected as temperatures increase into the upper
80s to mid 90s today along with dew points reaching the upper
60s to mid 70s.

This heat/humidity will stick around through the weekend, as an
upper-level ridge broadens over the area. While conditions will
not be as extreme as they were a week or so ago, EFI/SOT
guidance (which shows how extreme/rare forecast conditions are
compared to local climatology) is suggesting slightly above
normal temperatures for August particularly in north central
Kansas, which is a shift from the seasonably cooler conditions
experienced the last few days. Highs are expected to increase
into the mid 90s to triple digits by Sunday and Monday. LREF
guidance is showing a 30-60% chance of seeing heat index values
increasing to above 100 degrees in north central Kansas each
afternoon Saturday through Monday, though seeing heat index
values reaching 105 degrees is not out of the realm of
possibilities.

The main failure point of these more extreme temperatures is the
chance of  showers/thunderstorms as some "sneaky" waves may try to
emerge in the NW flow aloft. The first of these thunderstorm chances
comes Saturday morning, as some CAMS are suggesting a thunderstorm
cluster diving to the SE from western South Dakota/Nebraska. However
there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing, coverage,
and location of these storms. Other models are showing
redevelopment of thunderstorms Saturday evening/overnight. There
is a low chance that some of these evening storms may be strong
to marginally severe, as there is ample instability and shear
to work with. The main uncertainty with these storms is when and
where these thunderstorms develop.

Regardless, the heat won`t last too long, as model consensus
supports a cooling trend early next week as the upper level ridge
weakens and a more zonal pattern emerges. Within this zonal flow,
various shortwaves are possible, causing enough forcing for
numerous precipitation chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Low clouds have been stubborn to burn off today thanks to weak
mixing withing the low level high pressure axis. This high
pressure is shifting further E and allowing for gradually
increasing S/SE low level flow and decreasing clouds. Humidity
is beginning to increase once again (dew points back into he mid
to upper 60s), but should still be a seasonably pleasant evening
given the light breeze and temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s through sunset.

Expect another round of stratus and potentially more fog late
tonight and into Friday AM with return of downright muggy
conditions and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Bufkit
soundings and model progs seem to favor this moisture advection
being more stratus than fog, which makes sense given the steady
5-10 MPH Srly winds tonight. Models were a little overdone on
the fog last night and are even less excited about it tonight,
so have mentioned patchy fog in the grids, but left out any
mention of dense fog in the latest HWO.

Main story for the weekend will be return of warm/hot and humid
conditions - but there`s also one or two, albeit highly
uncertain, chances for thunderstorms to deal with, as well. Dome
of upper level high pressure will build/expand over the central
and southern Plains and allow for temperatures to soar into the
90s, to even low 100s in north central Kansas, each afternoon
Saturday and Sunday. The warmer KS zones will also see overnight
lows creep back up into mid 70s. Still can`t rule out the need
for a heat advisory for some of these areas, especially towards
Sun-Mon time frame, after moisture has had more time to pool
along a weak frontal zone. These areas will likely see peak heat
indices near the 105F criteria, and the warmer overnight lows
will add to the "accumulative effects" that come with high heat.
On the other hand, it`s now early August and we`re well
accustomed to the heat that was even higher a couple weeks ago.
Will continue to monitor trends for any signs of an upward tick
in dew points or air temperatures and potential need for a heat
headline - again, mainly along and S of the NE/KS state line.

Several weak waves rounding the edge of the upper level high
could lead to some sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances,
mainly in the Saturday to Saturday night time frame. CAMs are
quite inconsistent with details, however - differing
significantly on where and when the best chances will be. Some
guidance points towards mainly a Saturday AM chance, whereas
other models weaken the AM activity before it gets to us and
puts the highest chances with potential redevelopment in the
evening and overnight hours. Instability probably won`t be a
limiting factor regardless of scenario, and region will be on
the southern fringes of greater deep layer shear...so at least
some mention of severe weather potential seems warranted. Just
really difficult to pin point more specific details at this
time, unfortunately.

Models still support the idea of gradually cooling temperatures
and more active weather pattern for roughly the second half of
next week. Temperatures should dip back down into primarily 80s
for Neb zones by Wednesday, then area wide for Thursday. The
upper ridge will break down some and reorient from the Desert SW
into more of the Deep South, which should allow for a steady
stream of monsoonal mid to upper level moisture to stream into
the region and interact with frequent shortwaves embedded within
zonal to NW upper flow. Far too early for much in the way of
details, but broadly speaking, the pattern should favor an
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential, likely on a daily
basis...and this is confirmed in recent ensemble precip anomaly
plots for next week. Hopefully this pans out, as many areas
could use some moisture now, but especially next week after the
hot, and mainly dry, weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to maintain through at least 6z
tonight. Between 6z and 18z, increasing cloud coverage will be
observed with a few storms approaching the vicinity from the
northwest between 12-18z. It is unclear at this point in time if
the storms will reach either KGRI or KEAR. The current model
guidance keeps the precipitation coverage north and east. If a
storms does pass, ceilings as low as 1,000-2,000ft will be
possible with visibilities dropping near 2-4SM.

Though not likely (20-40% chance), some fog may redevelop
overnight into Saturday morning for a few locations across south
central Nebraska. The potential for dense fog overall remains
low.

Winds today are likely at their gustiest point (currently
gusting as high as 20-30kts as of 17z). These gusts should
naturally decrease across the evening hours with speeds
returning to clam/light winds (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion