Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

468
FXUS63 KOAX 231739
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop this morning, mainly in river valleys
  and low-lying areas of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

- Rain returns late tonight into Monday (60-80% chance).

- Windy Tuesday with gusts of 30-40+ mph. Some fire weather
  concerns may develop, depending on how much rain falls Monday.

- Continue to monitor the forecast from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend as potential exists for snowfall, although confidence
  in specific details remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Pretty quiet across the area early this morning with surface
high pressure in control. Clear skies and light winds were
allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s as of
3 AM. Satellite imagery did show some fog starting to develop
in some of the river valleys in southeast NE into northeast KS
with occasional obs elsewhere showing reduced visibility. Some
guidance is still persistent that patchy fog continues to
develop near and east of the Missouri River over the next few
hours. However, still plenty of guidance still keeps those
areas largely clear with model soundings showing just enough
drying in the low levels to prevent saturation. Whatever does
develop should start to dissipate by around 10 AM giving way to
a quiet, mild day with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By this evening, a cutoff low currently over the Desert
Southwest will push into eastern CO with associated rain edging
into the forecast area after midnight. Through 6 AM Monday,
chances look to be in the 20-40% range, mainly in NE, but will
steadily increase and overspread the area through the remainder
of the morning, topping out in the 40-70% range, highest across
far southeast NE into southwest IA. Precip looks like it`ll
linger in at least part of the area into the evening, but should
exit by midnight. Overall, the rain looks pretty light with
CAMs depicting more of a spotty, off- and-on showery look
through the day with chances for 0.25" only in the 10-20% range
for most. Otherwise, temperatures will generally top out in the
mid 50s.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will be pushing through MT and
into the Dakotas by early Tuesday, with a surface cold front
working its way through the forecast area during the day.
Guidance has trended toward keeping a vast majority of
associated precipitation to our north, though still maybe a
10-15% chance that far northeast NE gets clipped by some of this
moisture. It does look it would likely be during the day if it
does happen, which would mean rain, but if the system slows or
anything lingers into the evening, some very light snow could
move through, but little to no accumulation would be expected.
Otherwise, the main story of Tuesday will be strong northwest
winds behind the front, with model soundings showing 40- 50+ mph
at the top of the mixed layer and EPS mean wind gusts in a
similar range. Should these pan out, we`ll eventually need a
Wind Advisory, and we may see some fire weather concerns,
depending on how much rain falls the day before. Finally,
temperatures will be greatly impacted by the speed of the cold
front, with northeast NE topping out in the mid 40s and
southeast NE/southwest IA getting into the lower to mid 50s.

Guidance then suggests surface high pressure should dominate at
least Wednesday and Thursday with fairly quiet, but cool
weather. Expect highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s both days.

For Friday into the weekend, quite frankly, the forecast
remains a bit of a mess with very low predictability. Will there
be precipitation that impacts travel? Probably, but when,
where, and what kind all remain major questions. First, there
are still signs we could see a band of light snow slide through
at least part of the area sometime Friday, as some low to mid
level frontogenesis develops ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough. Ensemble members still show quite a bit of spread in how
far north or south this potential band would be, ranging from
across the middle of the forecast area, to remaining entirely
north and impacting only the Dakotas into MN, though the highest
potential for us would be near the NE/SD border. Precipitation
looks to become a little bit more widespread as we head into
Friday night/Saturday, as the aforementioned trough axis moves
into the area. However, guidance is all over the place on how
far west/east this precip develops and where any rain/snow
transition line is. As we head into Saturday night/Sunday, a
long wave trough will start to amplify over the western CONUS,
but there remains lots of spread in timing, type, location, and
amounts of associated precipitation. Current consensus gives us
40-60% chances of precip Sunday into Monday, but confidence in
any details is very low. So bottom line, if you have travel
plans following Thanksgiving, continue to closely monitor the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions are observed at the start of this TAF period.
Some gustiness is observed at KOFK, but this should subside
after 22z. Fog will once again develop across western Iowa and
may clip KOMA after 03z, but differences exist in model
guidance regarding timing and location. Ceilings and
visibilities will gradually deteriorate to IFR ahead of an
approaching storm system tonight, with fog and areas of
scattered showers affecting terminals. Have adjusted -SHRA
timing at KOFK and KLNK, while introducing mentions at KOMA
after 13z. Expect further refinements and adjustments in
subsequent issuances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

448
FXUS63 KGID 231800
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather expected today with highs in the upper 50s to
  low 60s

- Rain moves into the area this evening/tonight (40-60% PoPs) and
  continues into the day on Monday. Rain accumulations
  generally 0.10" or less.

- Gusty winds and cooler weather behind a cold front on Tuesday. Winds
  gusting over 40mph possible. Highs in the upper 30s to mid
  40s through the end of the forecast period.

- Increasing chances for the first wintry storm of the season arriving
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Clear skies and light winds this morning have resulted in
temperatures dipping into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Patchy fog has
developed across portions of north central Kansas, but widespread
dense fog is not expected. Southerly flow strengthens over the area
today ahead of an approaching low. This will result in another
pleasant day across the area as temperatures climb into the upper
50s to low 60s during the afternoon. Increasing cloud coverage is
expected during the day as the low moves into the Plains.

Rain moves southwest to northeast into the area this evening-night.
PoPs remain widespread, with a 40-60% chance across the forecast
area. Despite the fairly high PoPs, accumulations remain light, with
most areas seeing accumulations of 0.10" or less. The most
widespread rain is expected tonight-Monday morning. Rain chances
will come to an end from west to east during the day on Monday,
becoming dry by the evening hours. Highs on Monday will be in the
low 50s. A strong cold front moves through the area on Tuesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty winds. The strongest winds on
Tuesday will be along and north of Interstate 80, with winds gusting
over 40mph possible. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on
track, with below normal temperatures continuing through the end of
the forecast period (Highs upper 30s-mid 40s, lows 10s-20s). Dry
weather is expected for Thanksgiving. Next weekend, looks to be the
first chance for wintry weather for the forecast area, this
system will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight into Sunday...

High pressure, clear skies, and light winds may result in some
valley fog, primarily within a few hours either side of sunrise
Sunday morning. At this point any fog appears that it would be
patchy, shallow, and not very long lasting, maybe 1-3 hours.
Most areas can expect a quiet and clear night.

The wind will become southerly on Sunday bringing in some higher
dewpoints and we`ll have a closed low lifting northeast out of
the desert southwest. This will result in increasing clouds
Sunday afternoon and evening, but with rain chances holding off
until after sunset. As mentioned in the key messages section
above, this is a high probability for precipitation (>50%) but
also likely that it will only be light amounts (less than
0.10"). The most likely time frame for any rainfall will be
Sunday night between 11 PM and 7 AM.


Monday...

Rainfall chances will begin to decrease from west to east and
most areas should be dry by afternoon. Again this is a light
rainfall event with the NBM probability of receiving 0.10" or
more of precipitation over 24 hrs only (30-60%). That probability
shrinks to 10-30% for reaching 0.25" of rain Sunday night into
Monday. Highs should still be in the 50s with good forecast
confidence and a low model spread. However, clouds and a few
showers will mean that it will feel less pleasant than Sunday.


Tuesday through Friday...

We`ll see our first push of cooler air into the region on
Tuesday behind the departing Monday system. Then an even
stronger punch of cold air is expected Tuesday evening behind a
quick moving clipper that will track across the Dakotas giving
North Dakota some snow, but just colder for our area.

After that 2nd clipper Tuesday evening our pattern grows quiet
for at least Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day with northwesterly
flow and mainly dry conditions. Good travel conditions are
likely Wednesday and Thursday all across the plains states. We
do have an outlying 10% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles indicating
some light snow over portions of Nebraska on Thanksgiving, but
our forecast will follow the 90% that give us a dry Thanksgiving
Day.

By Friday after Thanksgiving we start to see an upper trough
develop across the western United States that will be our next
storm system. There could be some warm air advection snow ahead
of this system (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion