Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

738
FXUS63 KOAX 171829
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1229 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of central into
  eastern Nebraska due to very dry conditions and gusty winds
  through late this evening.

- A front will move through this evening bringing low-end rain
  chances (15-30%) and sporadic gusts of 40 to 50+ mph.

- Warm temperatures this afternoon are on track to break or tie
  record highs across much of the area.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday. There is a
  medium (30-50%) chance of accumulating snow and travel impacts
  for portions of northeast Nebraska currently.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

An active period of weather is expected throughout the remainder
of the week and potentially into this weekend. This afternoon
starts off our active weather with extreme fire danger and
near-record to record high temperatures. A potent southwesterly
low-level jet is overspreading the region. This feature will
help to make conditions very dry and gusty through the afternoon
and evening resulting in Red Flag Warnings for much of central
and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures should also soar well into
the 70s across the area, challenging or breaking many records in
the process. The first weather system moves through the region
tonight. A westerly wind shift with a front arrives this
evening, this brings a low chance (15-30%) of rain with it. With
very dry conditions, very little rain will make it to the
surface and this may instead support a low chance of wind gusts
of 40 to 50+ mph due to virga. Winds will be slow to weaken
tonight helping keep temperatures from cooling efficiently. Very
high fire danger lingers into Wednesday with negligible
moisture recovery. Temperatures and wind speeds decrease behind
tonights system, but gusty winds over northeast Nebraska and
areawide warm temperatures in the 60s remain.

The next system is forecast to arrive Thursday into Friday.
This system will bring much cooler temperatures to the area and
mark the return of snow to the forecast after a prolonged
hiatus. Cooling temperatures behind a developing low pressure
system sees rain change to snow Thursday afternoon and evening.
With snow expected overnight into early Friday morning for much
of the area. At this time the best chance of precipitation
(50-70%) is forecast over portions of northeast Nebraska and
west-central Iowa. That said, any heavier snow bands are
anticipated to remain narrow. Latest model guidance continues
to show appreciable spread between runs and models on the track
of this heavier band. At this time, where the heaviest snow
band sets up, several inches of snow is not out of the question,
resulting in travel impacts. Elsewhere, precipitation amounts
should be more limited. Light snow accumulations may still be
possible, but travel impacts would be lesser. Look for continued
updates as confidence increases with snow potential.

The next system passes south of the region on Saturday. Colder
temperatures will remain from the previous system, allowing for
additional snowfall potential with any precipitation. At this
time, the bulk of any precipitation is forecast to remain south
of the area. That said, a low (20-40%) chance of light snow and
accumulations may develop for portions of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa should precipitation reach this far north. This
additional system will continue to be closely monitored.

The pattern settles down a bit by Sunday into early next week.
Dry conditions return to the area as temperatures warm back
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Strengthening southerly winds are anticipated this afternoon
with gusts approaching 30 kts. A front swings from west to east
through the area late this evening. A westerly wind shift will
accompany this front and LLWS is forecast for several hours
behind the front at OMA and LNK. Winds will remain strong
through the night, but gradually weaken by Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Extreme fire danger this afternoon into late this evening
remains on track. The Red Flag Warning was expanded eastward
with clouds quick to clear late this morning. Very dry
conditions with relative humidity as low as 15% to 30% and wind
gusts upwards of 40 MPH are anticipated for much of central and
eastern Nebraska. There is a low chance of even higher wind
gusts approaching 50 mph with a front this evening. Virga
showers and very strong low-level winds may locally enhance
surface wind gusts along this front. Very high to extreme fire
danger lingers late this evening with negligible recovery and
gusty winds weakening slowly. This would cause fire control
concerns should any fires remain active into this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak
FIRE WEATHER...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

493
FXUS63 KGID 171718
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1118 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extremely dangerous fire weather remains very likely to impact
  the entire region today. Rare "Extreme" conditions possible
  along and W of Highway 183. A Red Flag Warning remains in
  effect for the entire area this afternoon and evening.
  Improvement will be unusually slow this evening.

- Record-breaking heat today will give way to cooler, but still
  unseasonably mild, temperatures on Wednesday with highs still
  in the 60s. Winds won`t be as strong as today, but continued
  dry air and moderate winds will keep fire weather concerns in
  place for one more day.

- Much cooler weather, along with the potential for accumulating
  snow for at least portions of the area, arrive on Thursday and
  continue into Friday. Best chances for impactful snow look to
  be along and N of I-80.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

By far, the main forecast concern in the short term remains
centered around likely `very critical` to possibly even
`extreme` fire weather this afternoon and evening. See dedicated
fire weather section below for more details.

Besides the fire weather...another significant weather headline
will be the very warm temperatures. Latest model guidance
remains on track to shattered record highs for this date for
both Grand Island and Hastings - our two longest period-of-
record sites. Forecast highs remain largely unchanged from the
previous package - widespread upper 70s to even some lower 80s.
Still not ready to completely rule out a brief spike to 79-81
degrees even in the Tri-Cities - which would then bring monthly
records into play. Today really does have all the ingredients
one would like to see for extreme warm temperatures by February
standards: multi-day warm leading into today, mild morning that
jump starts temperatures, limited expected cloud cover, deep
mixing to at least 8-10K ft, unidirectional SW to W low level
winds, and very dry soil/ground conditions. A deepening trough
over the central and northern Rockies will advect an extremely
warm air mass that has already been observed to be one of the
warmest ever sampled in mid-February. Both the 850mb and 700mb
observed temperatures on last evening`s 00Z sounding from
Amarillo were at or above the 10-day max moving average.
So...highly anomalous to begin with that will only be further
modified by the aforementioned favorable factors.

Did add some blowing dust to the grids for today. Dust is never
an easy hazard to forecast around here as conditions can be
highly variable over very short periods...but past experience,
along with the already mentioned factors - namely very strong
winds over already very dry ground, lead me to believe it`s
going to be an issue to deal with for some. Groups of the
population that are sensitive to poor quality should keep this
in mind for this afternoon and evening. A Pacific cold front
will swing through from W to E this evening and keep moderate to
strong winds going well past sunset.

Wednesday won`t be nearly as hot, but still unseasonably warm,
with widespread highs in the 60s. Fortunately, winds won`t be
nearly as strong as today...but dry air will remain in place.

Still looking at a significant pattern change by Thursday -
Thursday night to much colder and more wintry-like. General
model consensus continues to indicate a potential W to E band
of accumulating snow somewhere over mainly our Nebraska
counties. Latest deterministic EC and GFS are actually in pretty
good agreement that the band will focus N of I-80, from the
Sandhills E/NE into the Siouxland region. Will continue to
monitor trends and communicate this potential more broadly once
we get past today`s fire weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Currently through tonight...

The combination of light winds and well above normal
temperatures is making for quite a nice start to the new work
week. Upper air and satellite data showing a quiet pattern aloft
across the region, with zonal flow/broad ridging dominating the
central CONUS. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy, with
batches of upper level cirrus passing through the area. At the
surface, we`re sitting between areas of high pressure off to our
north and east, with overall weak troughing along the High
Plains. This is keeping winds light, around 5-10 MPH...with
varying direction. No big surprises as far as temperatures go,
with everyone topping out at least in the 60s this afternoon,
with readings near 70 across western areas.

This evening and tonight, quiet conditions continue. Models are
in good agreement showing the current zonal upper level flow
turning more southwesterly with time...as upper level troughing
currently over the West Coast pushes further inland. Expecting
to see more cloud cover overnight, with very mild overnight lows
tonight...mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s in the SE (normal is mid
teens-near 20). The threat of new record warm lows remains...see
the Climate section below for more.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall dry conditions remain in the forecast through the day on
Wednesday, with the main forecast concern during this period
remaining with fire weather concerns on Tuesday afternoon. More
details on fire weather specifics can be found in the Fire
Weather section below.

Looking at the daytime/evening hours on Tuesday, there hasn`t
been any significant changes in the models. Broad view, models
continue show a large area of upper level low pressure moving
into the Pac NW and continued troughing along the West
Coast...while a shortwave disturbance (currently over srn CA)
will be swinging northeast out of the Nrn/Central Rockies onto
the Nrn/Central Plains. Ahead of this approaching disturbance,
sfc troughing/low pressure over the High Plains deepens,
bringing more SSErly winds by 12Z Tuesday. Winds are expected to
increase in speed through the day, turning more SWrly ahead of
sfc trough axis during the morning, then switching to the west
as that boundary pushes through the forecast area. Tuesday
remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast period,
with increased mixing and downsloping westerly winds tapping
into a warmer airmass...forecast highs remain in the mid 70s for
most spots (a few spots reaching closer to 80 is not totally
out of the question), with record high temperatures looking to
be broken (see Climate section below). One question with
temperatures lies with cloud cover, especially across the
southern half of the forecast area, where models show the
potential for more cloud cover. The increased mixing and push of
drier air with the surface boundary is expected to bring a
notable drop in dewpoints, with the current forecast calling for
teens to push into western portions of the coverage area.

The lone mention of precipitation during this period remains in
the Tuesday evening period...but chances remain low around 20
percent. Models, to varying degrees, continue to show the
potential for at least spotty rain showers across ENErn portions
of the forecast area late in the day/evening, driven by that
sfc frontal boundary and main upper level trough axis swinging
through. These look to be short-lived chances, with models
showing the better precip potential focusing off to our NNE.

For the daytime hours on Wednesday, models show the area sitting
under upper level shortwave riding, set up between Tuesday`s
departing shortwave disturbance and the next one that will be
working its way into/through the Rockies. The wind forecast is a
bit uncertain, as we`ll be losing the influence of one area of
sfc low pressure (keeping winds westerly) and gaining the
influence of the next one deepening over the High Plains, which
will be switching winds back to more of SSErly direction.
Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected, with
low-mid 60s forecast.

Thursday on into early next week...

Following hot-by-Feb-standards temps on Tuesday, a taste of
winter returns for Thursday as snow returns to the forecast.
This next upper level shortwave disturbance emerges out onto the
High Plains late Wed night-Thu AM...taking a bit more of an
easterly track across the Central Plains, any northward progress
stopped up by Tuesday`s system which models have sitting near
the MN/Can border. Colder air is ushered in by the system`s
accompanying cold front, meaning the likely p-type is snow. The
best chances continue to favor the northern half of the forecast
area...and with this still a few days out and some model
differences, NBM PoPs are pretty broad, with 50-60 percent
chances through the Tri-Cities and 30 percent chances down into
north central KS. Latest runs of GFS/EC deterministic and
ensembles show a tighter gradient from north to
south...something to be worked on in the coming days. Latest run
of the GFS/EC trended the precip and snowfall amounts tied to
the west- east orientated axis of stronger mid-upper level
frontogenetical forcing a touch further north...both showing
areas south of I-80 with less than 10-20 percent chance of
seeing one inch or more of snow accumulation. Whether you get
snow or not, Thursday looks to be another windy day, with
northwesterly winds building across the area behind the cold
front...gusts of at least 30-35 MPH will be possible.

Additional low-end chances for precip remain in the forecast for
the end of the week Fri-Sat...but confidence in those chances
are not high, as models show some notable differences with where
other disturbances track and whether they bring precip at all
to the forecast area. Upper level ridging and dry conditions
return for the start of the new week Sun-Mon.

As far as temperatures go, following the 70s Tuesday and 60s
Wednesday, the reinforcing cold front passing through looks to
drop highs for Thursday and Friday back closer to normal in to
the 30s-low 40s. Expecting a rebound as we get through the
weekend/early next week, with highs by Monday back in the mid
40s-low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...main chances for any showers later today currently look
to be focused north and east of the terminal areas. Wind is the
main concern through the period, with gusty conditions expected
through early Wednesday morning. This afternoon, gusts
near/exceeding 40 MPH will be possible. Current direction is
SSWrly, but wind will be turning more westerly with time this
afternoon. Speeds taper off a bit this evening/overnight, but
gusts near 25-30 MPH will remain possible through roughly 12Z.
Models continue to show the potential for some marginal LLWS
during the mid-late evening hours, kept that mention going at
both sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions remain very likely
for this afternoon and evening for the entire forecast area.
High-end/extreme fire weather will be possible along and W of
Hwy 183 - particularly in the 21Z-01Z time frame.

Can`t stress enough of just how high end of a fire weather day
it appears today will be meteorologically, and potentially high
impact for anyone that has to deal with new fire starts. For
some historical perspective, before yesterday, the NWS Hastings
forecast area has only been included in a SPC Day 2 "Extreme"
Fire Weather category three times over the prior 20 years. The
last "extreme" fire weather day was December 15, 2021...and we
all know how that turned out. Now...we`re not going to have the
extreme high wind and gusts well over 60 MPH like we had that
day...but what we`ll be "lacking" in wind will be made up for in
very hot/dry air and very dry fuels.

The most intense fire weather conditions still appear to favor
areas along/W of Hwy 183, where there may be the greatest
overlap of 40-50 MPH wind gusts and RHs only in the low to mid
teens. Recent HRRR and RAP runs are forecasting a surge of
single-digit dew points behind a W to E sweeping front. This
front will turn winds from SW to W and basically maximize the
downsloping Chinook potential. The other thing this front will
do is keep dangerous fire weather going well into the mid to
late evening - much later than what we typically see around
here. So, any fire starts this afternoon that continue into the
evening will remain difficult to fight.

For areas E of Hwy 183, conditions won`t be quite as bad - but
conditions will still be very concerning. Here, wind gusts
should average more in the 30-45 MPH range, and minimum humidity
levels around 15-20 percent. This is still near the upper-end of
climatology and fuels - even in areas that experienced decent
rainfall on Saturday - will still be very dry by this aftn.

Though cooler on Wednesday, dewpoints remain low, and afternoon
relative humidity values may once again drop into the teens to
near 20 percent. Winds are expected to be lighter, transitioning
from westerly to start the day to more southerly by the end of
the day. As such, elevated to near-critical fire weather will
still be possible for at least portions of the forecast area
(far S favored the most) for a few hours Wednesday aftn.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record high temperatures and warm low/min temperatures are
likely to be approached/broken at various points Today for both
the Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and Hastings
airport (records back to 1908).


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE            | LATEST FORECAST

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017                  | 78

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981                  | 77



- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE    | LATEST FORECAST

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981                  | 43

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972                  | 44

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Thies
CLIMATE...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion