Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

715
FXUS63 KOAX 181719
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1219 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
  expected today, and again on Friday. Severe weather is
  unlikely.

- Cooler temperatures in the 70s and low 80s continue into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Today through Friday...

A broad upper trough continued to churn over the northern central
plains last night. Spotty showers and thunderstorms waned with the
absence of daytime heating, and patchy fog began to develop across
low lying areas where cooler air drained. By 2 AM, temperatures
dipped into the 60s, with visibilities down to 2 miles or less
at a few locations along and east of the Missouri River.

A vort max rotating along the southern periphery of the upper trough
will move in from the southwest, bringing another round of showers
and storms to the forecast area today. Expect storms to blossom over
southeast Nebraska late morning and gradually drift northeastward.
Overall storm intensity will likely be a function of instability
available from daytime heating/cloud cover. Overall, the best chance
for strong to severe storms will likely be off to our east this
afternoon and evening, where CAPE is maximized. However, a strong
storm or two can`t be completely ruled out within our forecast area
this afternoon.

A drier air mass will shift into the region this evening, behind the
departing vort max. A stray shower or two could linger into Friday
morning, but most activity should be out of the area by then. One
more surge of shortwave energy looks to shift across northeast
Nebraska Friday afternoon and evening, bringing renewed chances for
convection. Temperatures will remain relatively pleasant through the
end of the workweek. Highs will likely top out in the 70s Thursday
and Friday.

Saturday and Beyond...

The upper trough finally ejects into the Great Lakes region by
Saturday, with a midlevel thermal ridge building over the western
half of the CONUS this weekend. High temperatures will inch back
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Saturday and Sunday. A series
of shortwaves will pulse through the northwesterly flow aloft this
weekend, brining on again/off again rain chances Saturday through
Sunday night.

Latest runs of the global models drop yet another closed low out of
the intermountain west, and into the Central Plains next week. If
this pans out, we could see another push of cooler temperatures
and continued off/on rain chances through the first half of the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with some incoming
light showers for this afternoon. Guidance continues to suggests
thunderstorm development from southeast Nebraska into southwest
Iowa from 21-01Z, but favors storms staying southeast of OMA and
LNK. There could also be a broken line of storms that approaches
OFK in this window, but it looks very spotty, so did not include
mention. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions would be possible with
any storm. Otherwise expect SCT clouds around 1500-2500 ft
through much of the period, with perhaps some times of BKN at
OFK. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly at under 10 kts
and become more westerly overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

903
FXUS63 KGID 181739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cool today with areas of scattered showers and weak
  thunderstorms today.

- Rain chances have trended higher for the daytime hours Friday
  with one last upper disturbance rotating around the departing
  trough.

- Off and on 20-30% rain chances continue over the weekend, but
  the main story will be return of above normal temperatures
  and highs in the 80s.

- Another upper trough arrives early next week and brings a
  modest cooldown and more organized chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Early morning water vapor imagery indicates a complex closed
upper trough spinning over the N Plains...with several embedded
vorticity lobes spinning around the parent low supporting areas
of showers and thunderstorms. Short terms models have remained
consistent in showing the current area of showers in SW Kansas
shifting/expanding E/NE this morning and clipping at least the
SE third/half of the forecast area. Some additional, probably
less expansive, activity could develop further NW of the main
band, as well. Bottom line...expect some light to moderate rain
for portions of the area this morning...and areas that manage to
remain dry will still be under copious mid to high clouds.
Another source of rain chances particularly this aftn into early
eve will be moisture wrapping around the primary upper low
center along the SD/NE border. This activity will be supported
by modest sfc heating that leads to steeper low to mid level
lapse rates and more "pop-up" type isolated convection. Areas
from around the Tri-Cities, N and W, will be most favored. Rain
amounts will remain spotty and light. W-NW flow and copious
cloud cover will keep temps cool in the 60s to low 70s.

Mainly dry conditions return for the overnight hours tonight.
The break in rain chances will be short-lived, however, as
models have trended towards better agreement in another batch of
rain on Friday with another lobe of mid/upper level vorticity.
Have coordinated with surrounding offices to increase PoPs above
the NBM as it seems too slow in capturing this potential. HRRR,
RAP, RRFS, and EC...for example...all depict the general
scenario of a NW to SE band of showers/weak convection rotating
through the daytime hours. Have gone with 20-40 PoPs, for now,
but given the increasing consistency, the day shift may very
well ramp this up further with the afternoon forecast package.

The broader upper trough axis will gradually shift E/NE into the
Upper MS Valley for the weekend...but latest 500mb vorticity
progs still indicate pervasively "dirty" zonal to NW upper flow
that will keep occasionally unsettled weather going through the
weekend. These weak perturbations are notoriously difficult to
pinpoint timing and location, so details on timing, coverage,
and placement of convection are still very uncertain. Just know
that the weekend is trending "less dry" than 24-48 hrs ago, but
it`s not going to be a washout, either. The broader sensible
weather impact will be the return of above normal temperatures
in the 80s. Still think favored warm spots SW of the Tri-Cities may
even make a run toward 90F on Sunday. Dew point progs in at
least the mid 60s suggest seasonably high humidity, as well.

Various deterministic models and ensembles have remained
consistent with the general idea of a new upper
trough/disturbance in the NW upper flow arriving sometime early
next week. This could result in a period, or two, of more
organized shower/thunderstorm potential, followed by a dip in
temperatures towards Tue-Wed. The temp drop looks to be modest,
though, as the source of the upper level energy is largely
Pacific-based and any significant infusions of polar airmass
appears unlikely. The 00Z EPS mean progs highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s Tue through the end of next week...so likely a
pretty mild/pleasant week next week outside of any rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area later
this afternoon. Winds will generally range from the south to the
west and northwest by 00z. Winds will become northerly by 15z to
18z Friday. Wind gusts up to around 15 to 20 knots are possible
this afternoon. Low ceilings are possible tonight into tomorrow
morning but more likely in KGRI than KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion