Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

139
FXUS63 KOAX 180536
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below
  freezing for many locations. Sensitive early season
  vegetation could be damaged.

- Dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to Very High to
  Extreme Fire Danger across northeast Nebraska into western
  Iowa Saturday afternoon and evening.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Sunday. Relatively warm,
  dry, and quiet weather will accompany this until our next
  potential weather system by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After an active day of severe weather across much of the Midwest
and Great Plains, much quieter weather is beginning to set in
behind a strong cold front. Much cooler air is continuing to
filter in late this evening on gusty northwest winds. Much of
the area will see temperatures bottom out in the upper 20s to
low 30s with only portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa remaining above freezing by Saturday morning. With this in
mind, portions of the area are under a Freeze Warning where
significant greening of vegetation has begun. Temperatures will
gradually warm into the 50s by Saturday afternoon. While the
main shortwave from Friday will be well east of the area, the
base of a broader trough will be passing overhead during the
afternoon. This will support continued gusty northwest winds.
These winds combined with relative humidity below 20 percent for
much of the area results in Very High to Extreme Fire Danger
for northeast Nebraska and portions of western Iowa. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for the aforementioned area due to this. Winds
will finally begin to weaken Saturday evening as surface high
pressure builds across the region. Sunday morning starts cold
once again, mainly in the 30s. Some locations north of
Interstate 80 may see sub-freezing temperatures as well.
Thankfully, a warming trend begins by Sunday afternoon.

Sunday afternoon onwards sees the return of warmer, but
relatively quiet and dry weather into at least the middle of
next week. Upper-level ridging will begin to build across the
Great Plains as surface high pressure slides east of the region.
Temperatures climb back into the 60s on Sunday, 70s on Monday,
and 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of our next potential
weather system. Late Wednesday into Thursday a large trough
across the western CONUS begins to eject into the Great Plains.
At this time, significant differences in the exact evolution of
this system remain, but an active pattern appears likely.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast with severe
potential a possibility given the time of year. A cold front
then appears to arrive by the end of the week into next weekend.
More concrete details should be known as we move through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the
terminals. A broad area of low pressure over Ontario and Lake
Superior will result in some breezy conditions over eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa today. Winds will be primarily out of the
northwest through the period around 15-20kts with gusts as high
as 25-30kts. Heading into tonight, surface high pressure builds
to the south with winds expected to decrease to around 5-10kts
out of the west at KOFK and out of the northwest at KOMA and
KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ030-042>044-
     050-051-065-078-088.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

470
FXUS63 KGID 180528
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1228 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northerly winds gusting 40-45 mph through around sunset.

- Clearing skies and decreasing winds tonight-Saturday morning
  will likely result in widespread sub-freezing temperatures. A
  Freeze Warning is in effect for the entire area 1am-9am
  Saturday. Coldest temperatures in the lower 20s from Lexington
  to Ord.

- Critical fire weather conditions likely Saturday afternoon.
  Red Flag Warning in effect from Noon through 8 PM. RH values
  of 14-20% and northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

- Near critical fire danger Monday through Friday. The wind will
  be a bit lighter Monday and Tuesday when RH is the lowest. RH
  values will increase some on Wednesday through Friday, but so
  will the wind. Expect better chances for critical fire danger
  by mid to late week.

- Dry and above normal high temperatures expected Sunday into
  most of next week. 70s for highs on Sunday and then 80s Monday
  through Thursday. Next chance for rain will be Wednesday
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This Afternoon into Tonight...

The wind will remain gusty at 40 to 45 mph at times until we
lose diurnal heating/mixing around sunset. The wind will die
down overnight and with clearing skies after midnight we expect
pretty cold frosty temperatures. Lows are expected to drop into
the lower 20s northwest to around 32 in Beloit with a pretty
solid freeze for most areas. Get out there and cover your
vulnerable plants if you already have them in the ground. You
will also need to remember to cover them again Saturday night
for round two of the sub-freezing temperatures.


Saturday...

We have a really impressive sounding with steep dry adiabatic
lapse rates to over 650 mb indicating strong mixing down of
stronger winds aloft. Therefore, increased winds a bit above
NBM guidance using a mix down tool for both winds and dew
points. Consequently, also lowered dew points and RH values a
bit below NBM. The wind will be more marginal across north
central Kansas, but still enough to warrant a Red Flag.


Sunday...

The wind will be lighter and we expect one more cold sub-
freezing morning in the string of cold. It`s highly likely that
most if not all areas will need another frost or freeze headline
for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Plan on covering your
sensitive plants the next two nights.

With the dry airmass in place we do expect a nice warmup into
the 70s by Sunday afternoon.


Monday and Tuesday...

An upper level ridge will swing into the region and we expect
dry and very warm conditions for this time of year with highs
in the 80s.


Wednesday through Friday...

The next upper trough will enter the high plains as early as
Wednesday, although the better chances for thunderstorms will be
west of us on Wednesday. This trough will slowly move across the
plains through the end of the week and it`s too early to tell
how much rain if any we will get from this system. A lot will
depend on the strength and timing of this wave and it`s too far
away to get a good handle on that. But at least our next chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this
system mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Winds will be light
and west-northwest overnight, remaining light through the mid-
late morning. Around noon on Saturday sustained winds increase
to around 15kts with gusts around 25kts. Winds become light and
variable after sunset. Scattered mid-high level clouds are
possible Saturday afternoon, but clear after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions likely Saturday afternoon.
Red Flag Warning in effect from Noon through 8 PM. RH values of
14-20% and northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

There are steep dry adiabatic lapse rates to over 650 mb
Saturday afternoon indicating strong mixing down of stronger
winds aloft. Therefore, increased winds a bit above NBM guidance
using a mix down tool for both winds and dew points.
Consequently, also lowered dew points and RH values a bit below
NBM. The wind will be more marginal across north central Kansas,
but still enough to warrant a Red Flag.

Near critical fire danger Monday through Friday. The wind will
be a bit lighter Monday and Tuesday when RH is the lowest. RH
values will increase some on Wednesday through Friday, but so
will the wind. Expect better chances for critical fire danger by
mid to late week and would not be surprised if we need
additional Red Flag Warnings by mid to late week for at least
portions of the forecast area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion