Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

977
FXUS63 KOAX 261719
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel
  impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The
  highest chances will be in northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa where there is a 50-60% chance of at least an
  inch of snow.

- Winter weather is expected to continue to impact travel
  through at least Saturday, with additional snow combined with
  gusty winds for much of the area. However, confidence remains
  low on snowfall amounts.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday`s system, with highs mostly
  in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens
  through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Early morning analysis showed the cutoff low responsible for
our strong winds Tuesday spinning through MN/WI with the local
forecast area remaining under a decently strong pressure
gradient at the surface. As a result, northwest winds were
continuing to gust 25 to 40 mph early this morning. Winds should
continue to gradually taper off as the low continues to push
eastward and surface high pressure builds in today, with any
gusts expected to be under 20 mph by around 6 PM. High pressure
will stick around through Thanksgiving and keep us quiet, though
we`ll be cooler, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.

Guidance remains in good agreement that we`ll see snow chances
arrive on Friday as a shortwave trough starts to push into the
northern Rockies, a surface low spins up over CO/WY, and a band
of frontogenesis sets up somewhere across the SD/NE/MN/IA border
area. While there will be some dry air in place, strong
southerly flow ahead of the surface low will advect in a decent
amount of moisture through the day Friday, with a band of snow
starting to develop by late morning/early afternoon. While there
are still some differences in guidance regarding in band
placement, overall consensus suggests the heaviest accumulations
will remain to our northeast, where around 3-6" could fall in
the heart of the band. Meanwhile over our area, through Friday
evening, guidance suggests a 30-60% chance of at least 1 inch
northeast of a line from Norfolk to Omaha and only about a
10-30% chance of 2 inches anywhere in that same area. So
overall, think it will be fairly minor accumulations in our area
through Friday evening, though maybe a few slick spots develop,
especially in portions of northeast NE into west-central IA.

Precip chances will become more widespread on Saturday and
while we`ll still have to contend with dry air on the southwest
side of the Friday night band, the continued moisture advection
and the incoming shortwave trough should help to saturate things
Saturday morning. The big questions will be 1) precip
type/changeover time at a given location and 2) how long snow
lingers in the area. Both of these will largely hinge on the
track of the surface low. There`s actually reasonably good
agreement on its track with the 00Z guidance, though of course
just small changes in track could have notable impacts on
temperatures and resulting precip type. Consensus currently
suggests the low tracks roughly along the KS/OK border early
Saturday then pushes northeast through eastern KS and into MO by
Saturday afternoon. This would result in mostly snow north of
Interstate 80 and a period of rain across far southeast NE and
far southwest IA with a fairly clean changeover to snow (i.e.
little to no mix) as cold air works in from the northwest.
Guidance is also in decent agreement that the system exits
fairly quickly, with precip coming to an end by midnight
Saturday night.

Now for the potential impacts. Obviously, snow will lead to
slick roads, but even areas that see mainly rain could see that
moisture freeze onto roadways as much colder air moves in later
in the day. In addition, guidance is trending upward on winds,
with GFS soundings showing 40+ kts at the top of the boundary
layer. Furthermore, EPS guidance shows a 50-90% chance of seeing
gusts of at least 35 mph during the day Saturday, which would
lead to very poor visibility in areas of accumulating snow. The
question there is will the strongest winds overlap with the
heaviest snow. So overall, lots of smaller scale details to work
out, but it`s looking likely (50-70% chance) that we`ll see at
least minor travel impacts in a good chunk of the area Saturday.
If you have any travel plans, make sure to check the forecast
and adjust if needed.

Guidance is also starting to come into better agreement Sunday
into next week, with a less amplified trough digging into the
western CONUS favoring decreased precipitation chances. There
does look to be some light snow potential within the trough axis
itself, but there remains spread on timing and location of that
precip, with consensus largely keeping it to our southwest
Sunday into Monday (only a 10-15% chance of light snow for us in
that timeframe). Otherwise, as mentioned above, it will be much
colder Sunday into the early part of next week, with highs
mostly in the 20s and daytime wind chills in the single
digits/teens. Low temperatures will be in the single digits to
lower teens and wind chills could dip below 0 for many
locations, especially Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Northwesterly winds are in place to start the TAF period,
holding onto gusts to around 20 kts through the mid-to-late
afternoon before diminishing to speeds of 5 kts or less
overnight out of the same direction. Low clouds have continued
to erode this morning, with all-VFR conditions expected to
settle in by 19z, lasting through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

491
FXUS63 KGID 262053
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
253 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few sprinkles/flurries possible southwest of the Tri-Cities
  this evening.

- Dry on Thanksgiving with highs in the low-mid 40s and partly
  to mostly sunny skies.

- Chances for snow arrive Friday night-Saturday morning. Snow falling
  combined with northwest winds gusting 35-45mph will result in
  periods of poor visibility.

- Snow accumulations range from a dusting (central/west) to an
  inch (east).

- Sub-Zero wind chills possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are sitting below their climatological
normals, in the upper 30s to low 40s. A passing disturbance brings a
chance for sprinkles/flurries this evening southwest of the Tri-
Cities, but dry air near the surface will inhibit/prevent
accumulations. Lows tonight drop into the mid teens to mid 20s under
mostly cloudy skies.

Thanksgiving...

Overall, Thanksgiving Day looks to be quiet weather-wise as the area
sits under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 40s and partly
to mostly sunny skies.

Friday and Saturday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Friday ahead of an
approaching trough. Highs on Friday range from the upper 30s across
northeastern portions of the area to the upper 40s across the
southwest. Southerly winds will be breezy, gusting 25-30mph. Models
remain consistent in keeping the initial wave of precipitation
northeast of the area, resulting in dry weather during the
daytime hours on Friday.

This quickly changes Friday night as the trough and surface low move
into the Plains. The low will be centered over Kansas Friday night-
Saturday morning, with a warm front residing along the NE/KS border.
PoPs increase after midnight as precipitation fills in around
the low. As it does, cold air wraps into the system with a
transition from rain to snow Saturday morning. This could result
in a brief period of mixed precipitation, and could result in
slick roads when combined with dropping temperatures. Winds
gusts quickly ramp Saturday morning along the backside of the
low. Northwest winds gusting 35-45mph are expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday. Gusty winds combined with any falling
snow will result in poor visibility for those
outdoors/traveling. Snow ends from west to east late Saturday
morning-evening as the system moves into the Midwest. Most of
the area will see a dusting to an inch of snow. Eastern-
Northeastern portions of the area are most likely to see 1" or
more of snowfall, with the least accumulations west of Highway
183. Given the holiday weekend and increased travel it`s worth
repeating that those traveling on Saturday will experience poor
visibility in falling snow.

Uncertainties:

The biggest uncertainties with the forecast are how quickly
precipitation wraps around the low, and how much snowfall will occur
across eastern portions of the area. The high and low end scenarios
for precipitation coverage can be seen well when comparing the
GFS/NAM to the ECMWF/GDPS. The 12z GFS/NAM show light rain/snow
Friday night-Saturday morning. A band of heavier snow then develops
during the mid morning hours on Saturday across eastern/northeastern
portions of the area which exits the area Saturday afternoon. This
scenario would result in most of the forecast area seeing less than
an inch of snow, with 1" possible mainly along/east of Highway 81.
The heavier solution as shown by the 12z ECMWF/GDPS would see a band
of heavier snow develop by sunrise and be further west. This would
result in more widespread chances to see 1" of snow, with far
eastern portions of the area seeing 2-3" of snow. It`s also worth
noting that GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles have shown a gradual westward
shift in the chance for 3" of snow (10-20% chance along/east of
Highway 81). There is still plenty of time for things to change, so
keep a close eye on the forecast, especially for those traveling on
Saturday.

Sunday Onwards....

Cold air will be in place over the area Sunday morning, with lows in
the single digits to low teens and wind chill values near to below
zero! Highs on Sunday only climb into the 20s. The next shortwave
moves into the plains Sunday night Monday. Models continue to show
that any snow that does fall with this system will remain light (a
dusting), and be most likely along/south of the NE-KS border. Sub-
zero wind chills are possible again Monday morning, with highs once
again confined to the 20s. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with
highs climbing above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT-BKN mid-level
clouds move over the area this evening, clearing by the early
morning hours on Thursday. Northwest winds become light and
variable this evening, with light and variable winds continuing
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion