Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

426
FXUS63 KOAX 040512
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1212 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system lifting northeast across the region will
  bring precipitation chances (20-30%) to northeastern Nebraska
  overnight. Rain mixing with snow before becoming all snow is
  expected.

- Expect a dry weekend with temperatures gradually returning to
  the upper 50s to mid-60s by Sunday afternoon.

- The pattern shifts again heading into mid-week bringing
  additional chances of precipitation to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows the low over the Central and
High Plains. A line of storms extending from north central Texas to
eastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin continues to progress to the
northeast. Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa are currently in the
dry slot with the comma head of the low slowly pivoting over the
Nebraska Panhandle and into north central Nebraska. Precipitation
chances will increase across northern Nebraska over the next few
hours as the low shifts northeast, bringing shower activity into the
Omaha forecast area. Precipitation will start as rain or a rain/snow
mix before transitioning to all snow as temperatures drop into the
20s and 30s overnight. Little to no precipitation snow accumulation
is expected.

Saturday, the low lifts northeast out of the region with northwest
flow setting up. Expect dry conditions over the weekend and a
gradual warming trend. By Sunday afternoon, expected highs will
return to the upper 50s to mid-60s.

Monday through the end of the forecast, our unsettled weather
pattern will continue with a couple of disturbances moving through
the region. These systems will bring a cool down and a chance for
precipitation to the region, followed by a brief warm up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR with patchy IFR ceilings will remain over the region
tonight and into Saturday morning. Ceilings should scatter out
to VFR levels from southwest to northeast around 23Z Saturday evening.
A few scattered snow showers may sneak across far northeast
Nebraska between 06-12Z this morning, but should generally avoid
the TAF sites. Any snow that does fall would be light with
little to no accumulation. Northwest winds will become breezy
today, with speeds up to 25-35 kts possible until 00Z Saturday
evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

675
FXUS63 KGID 040604
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday
  afternoon for counties mainly along the far western fringes of
  our forecast area due to gusty northwest winds and low
  relative humidity/RH (elsewhere in our area, relative humidity
  should remain well above 25-30%).

- Increased precipitation chances and opportunities for
  beneficial rainfall next week with the overall-highest
  chances (60% to 75%) tentatively expected Thursday-Friday.

- Along with the increased precip chances, chances for at least
  weak thunderstorms will also return at various points
  Wednesday night-Friday. Stronger storms could be a possibility
  (it is April after all), but still too soon to say whether any
  "true" convective threat might clip into our area or instead
  focus more to the south and/or east.

- Temperature-wise: Overall the next 7 days appear very
  seasonable for April, with high temps most days 50s-60s and
  lows most nights 20s-40s. At least for now, Wednesday looks
  like the overall-warmest day with highs 70s-low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An upper trough/low is over the Rocky Mountains and the Great
Plains. Upper lift has increased across Nebraska and Kansas
associated with the upper trough/low. This has resulted in showers,
drizzle and fog developing earlier today that has cleared out of the
forecast area. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas are out of the north with high temperatures
today ranging from the 40s in the north and east to the 50s and 60s
in the south and west. A surface trough/low is across western
Nebraska and western Kansas which has resulted in warmer
temperatures and clearing skies. Temperatures tonight are expected
to drop into the 20s and 30s behind a cold front.

Nebraska and Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough on
Saturday with gusty north to northwest winds. High temperatures will
mostly be in the 50s and 60s across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas.  Low temperatures Saturday night
will be fairly similar to those from the previous night with light,
westerly winds. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s
and 70s on Sunday with the area in between 2 surface troughs. A cold
front is expected by Monday with high temperatures possibly ranging
from the 40s to near 70. Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with
winds increasing out of the south, although there is quite a bit of
uncertainty with the high temperatures due to increased lift and
cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday as
winds increase out of the south to southwest. Cooler temperatures
are expected on Thursday due to a cold front but there is high
uncertainty in regards to the high temperatures due to uncertainties
in the timing and strength of the front. Precipitation chances
increase again next week with the highest chances Thursday night
(60% to 75% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Confidence is high in VFR visibility throughout the period and
is also high that ceiling will drop no lower than MVFR. However,
there are some question marks regarding which side of the
MVFR/VFR "breakpoint" the ceiling will ultimately prevail
through mainly these first 9-13 hours...especially at KGRI where
MVFR will probably be more prevalent. Precipitation-wise, while
a brief sprinkle and/or brief drizzle cannot be ruled out during
these first couple of hours, high confidence that measurable
precip will not occur and have kept any precip mention out of
TAFS.

Besides the aforementioned ceiling questions, moderately-strong
northwest winds are the main aviation issue...especially during
the day Saturday when sustained speeds will commonly average
20-25KT/gusts around 30KT. Backing up to early this morning
(through shortly after sunrise), winds will start becoming a
bit breezy out of the northwest...commonly sustained around
15KT/gusts 20+KT.

- Ceiling uncertainty (centered around MVFR vs. VFR questions):
At least an intermittent ceiling is likely especially through
21Z KEAR/00Z KGRI...with the main question mark being how much
of this ceiling is MVFR (mainly 2-3K ft. AGL) versus low-end VFR
(mainly 3-5 K ft. AGL). Compared to previous TAFs, made
relatively minimal change, but did bring outright-VFR back to
KGRI a few hours earlier (now aimed for 19Z). Focusing a bit
more on each site:
- For KGRI: Although it will likely be more inte Although
  confidence is high in an outright return to VFR by 21Z, a
  lower-end VFR ceiling (4-5K ft. AGL) rmittent than current
  TAFs reflect, have maintained prevailing MVFR through 19Z,
  although this would favor being no worse than high-end MVFR
  beyond these first few hours. Even if VFR returns sooner than
  currently reflected, a low-end VFR ceiling (4-5K ft. AGL)
  could linger through as late as around 00Z.

- For KEAR: The overall likelihood and duration of potential
  MVFR ceiling is certainly lower compared to KGRI, and have
  only kept prevailing MVFR through 09Z. However, at least
  scattered MVFR clouds and/or a low-end VFR ceiling between
  3-5K ft. AGL could persist well beyond that, possibly into the
  first part of Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Saturday potential for near-critical" fire weather conditions
  in our far western forecast area:
Near-critical fire weather conditions appear possible mainly
within our far western forecast area...including Dawson, Gosper,
Furnas, Phillips and Rooks counties...due to the combination of
northwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH, and relative
humidity as low as 20-25 percent. The remainder of our forecast
area will also have gusty northwest winds, but relative humidity
should largely remain above 30 percent.

Looking beyond Saturday, fortunately there are currently no
"obvious" days that bear watching for potentially more
widespread critical conditions that might necessitate Warning
issuance, but Wednesday at least bears watching considering it
is expected to be the warmest day of the next week.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion