Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

002
FXUS63 KOAX 040520
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may redevelop overnight (20-30% chance) in
  northeast Nebraska.

- Temperatures trend upwards through the remainder of the work
  week, topping out in the upper 60s to even 70 degrees.

- Potential is increasing for a few strong storms to join in the
  widespread shower chances late Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows a shortwave pushing
across the Rocky Mountain Front Range while mid/upper confluent
flow fills in to the east of it. Zooming in locally, stratus
lights up nighttime imagery as we find ourselves in a dreary
warm air advection regime to the north of the main surface
boundary stretching from northwest Texas through eastern
Missouri. Model soundings this evening depict subtle lift
through the lowest layers continuing into the overnight hours,
with that low level saturation expected to hold and even result
in spotty drizzle and mist. We`ve nudged up lows overnight due
to the cloud cover, which will limit radiational cooling and
keep ups in the mid-to-upper 30s for most of the area. Just to
the west (and underneath clearer skies), temperatures drop off
quickly and serve as a signal that any breaks in the clouds will
tank temperatures quickly.

By sunrise tomorrow morning, the aforementioned mid/upper shortwave
from Colorado will have arrived to the area, providing continued
lift that still ends up being weak. CAMs are similarly skeptical,
showing limited rainfall output as it passes through the area, due
to the main wave following its own limb of ambient vorticity
directly to its east and limiting PVA. As it moves through, the
western edge of the clouds will begin eroding, with peeks of
sunshine arriving to central to northeast Nebraska by 3 PM.
Temperatures will respond in turn, topping out in the 50s to nearly
60 degrees for points that see some sunshine.

Thursday and Beyond:

Our eyes turn westward Thursday, watching the development of a
neutrally tilting longwave through that will help strengthen a
northward mass response across the pains to its east. That
southerly flow will help boost temperatures and send a swath of
strong moisture advection northward from the Southern Plains
that arrives during the evening/overnight hours. Highs during
the day will see a big jump into the mid/upper 60s, giving us
that taste of late spring with less dry air than our more recent
warm spells. During the evening into the overnight hours, a
potent low-level jet will nose into the forecast area,
increasing the ambient shear and providing a focus for ascent
that could allow showers/storms reach modestly unstable lapse
rates aloft. Showers and storms will lift north-northeast into
the overnight hours, giving us our first meaningful rainfall in
a while, while also giving us the year`s first chances at seeing
severe hail.

By Friday morning, the focus of the low-level jet will have
have shifted to the northeast and we`ll find ourselves focusing
on how much sun we can get during the morning and afternoon
hours to help fuel destabilization. We`ll find a surface
trough/warm front stretching from northwest Kansas into
northeast Nebraska, with steep lapse rates aloft and gusty winds
(30-40 mph) developing to bring our best chance for showers,
and a few strong storms. Latest runs of the ensemble machine
learning guidance indicates that the threat for any severe
storms will be greatest across northeast Kansas into far
southeast, where the main surface boundary intersects with an
unstable and highly sheared (40 kts or more) vertical profile
during the afternoon hours. Any showers and storms that do form
in the warm sector will shift east of the area by the evening
hours, leaving us with lingering post-frontal precipitation and
much cooler air going into early Saturday. As temperatures fall,
we could see some of the rain turn to snow with gusty winds
following behind the main system into early Saturday.

With the larger system from the late week continuing to deepen
and sweep off to the northeast, we`ll find westerly winds
carrying dry but warm winds that help us rebound from a cool
morning into the afternoon with highs forecast to reach the mid
50s. A subtropical branch of the jet stream will ward away any
moisture return to the south and east of the forecast area
through Sunday and Monday, keeping the dry trend and warmer
temperatures going. Though models are in poor agreement at this
point of the forecast, Tuesday into Wednesday will be the next
period to watch for impactful weather as another deep trough
swings into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Ceilings have begun decreasing again this evening. IFR
conditions are overspreading LNK and OMA at this time. OFK is
expected to fall from MVFR to IFR over the next several hours.
Areas of fog are also expected alongside these lower ceilings.
The greatest chance of MVFR visibility from fog is at OFK with
lower confidence at OMA and LNK. Conditions may lower further
during the morning hours with LIFR conditions anticipated.
Ceilings begin to slow improve by the late morning and early
afternoon. VFR conditions are like to return at OFK and LNK
late in the afternoon with confidence being lower at OMA.
Outside of ceilings, winds remain light.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

274
FXUS63 KGID 040644
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...Aviation, Short Term and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While most of our forecast area (CWA) will see only widespread
  low clouds and perhaps some light fog into Wed AM, roughly our
  western 1/3rd stands a better chance of seeing at least SOME
  coverage of dense fog reducing visibility to around 1/4 mile
  or less. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
  our west.

- Truly measurable precipitation is quite unlikely over the next
  24 hours, although some very light drizzle (non-freezing) is
  possible mainly within the eastern 1/2 of our CWA this
  morning, and there could be some rogue sprinkles/very light
  showers mainly in our far southeast counties this afternoon-
  evening.

- A stronger upper level system brings increasing chances for
  rain and thunderstorms to the area late in the day Thursday,
  continuing on into the evening/overnight hours. There will be
  the potential for some storms to be strong-severe, with the
  entire forecast area currently included in the SPC Day 3
  Marginal Risk area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

-- Regarding Wed AM dense fog potential/Advisory:

Although confidence in TRULY widespread dense fog (visibility
around 1/4 mile or less) is admittedly a bit on the weaker side,
higher-res modeled visibility (such as from HRRR) has been
fairly insistent that at least LIMITED dense fog should develop
overnight into Wed AM within primarily the western 1/3rd of our
CWA (mainly west of an Ord-Kearney-Alma-Plainville line. In
collaboration with neighboring WFOS GLD/LBF/DDC, thus went
ahead and issued a formal Dense Fog Advisory for our 10-western
most counties valid through 11 AM.

Conceptually, would expect at least SOME dense fog in parts
(probably not all) of our western Advisory area...given this
area resides closest to the western edge of the low stratus deck
gradually advecting westward through the western fringes of our
CWA. However, could also see MOST of the dense fog potential
focusing JUST to our west altogether. Hence, this Advisory is
only considered "medium confidence" at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been an overall quiet day across the forecast area, with
satellite imagery showing very different sky cover from one
end to the other...across the west seeing mostly sunny skies, in
central and especially eastern areas, socked in with low level
stratus. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show an
area of low pressure gradually working its way across northern
CO, with a mid-upper level trough axis extending east-northeast
through NE up toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, the
forecast area is sitting between broad high pressure spread
across portions of the Central Plains up into the Great Lakes
region and deepening low pressure over the TX
panhandle...bringing more NNErly winds to the forecast area,
with speeds have mainly been 10MPH or less. Not surprisingly,
the stubborn cloud cover hasn`t done any favors to temperatures,
keeping those areas mainly in the mid 40s...vs further west in
the sun have reach into the 50s and even some low 60s.

The rest of today on into tonight...models are in good agreement
showing that CO upper low continuing to slide east, main
question will be with whether or not we see any precipitation.
Most models backed off on QPF...but a few models, including some
hi-res, still show the potential for at least some
isolated/scattered sprinkles or showers lingering this evening
and tonight. These chances are mainly focused across portions of
south central NE...and not expecting any notable amounts out of
anything that does fall. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy
skies...with a return of light/variable winds as a surface ridge
axis pushes south through the area. Not out of the question
that some patchy fog could develop later tonight with those
light winds, most models currently showing visibilities not
dropping as low as this morning.

Mid to late work week...

Looking at Wednesday, overall precipitation chances backed off,
with small chances (20 percent) now just confined to SErn
portions of the forecast area. Models remain in good agreement
showing that upper level disturbance current over CO continuing
to slide east right through the heart of the area...but keep the
better precip chances to our SSE. Some models suggest the 20
percent chances currently in the forecast are too much...if that
trend holds, completely removing PoPs is not out of the
question. Winds expected to remain on the lighter side, starting
out the day variable, turning more southerly through the
afternoon ahead of deepening low pressure across the High
Plains. Sky cover is once again expected to diminish from west
to east...but similar to today, confidence in the exact timing
of the clearing is not high. Highs range from the mid 50s in the
east to lower 60s in the west...confidence again lower in the
east due to uncertainty with the cloud cover.

Expecting at least the first half of the day on Thursday to be
dry, potentially most of the day. Precipitation chances will
be on the increase during the afternoon hours, with the overall
best chances looking to be after 00Z. Models showing another
upper level low pressure system working its way into the Pac NW
during the day on Wednesday, digging south with time, ending up
in the Desert SW region by the end of the day on Thursday.
During the evening/overnight hours, larger scale lift is picking
up ahead of this upper level troughing, aided by increasing
moisture/warm advection pushing north thanks to a strengthening
southerly low- level jet. These are not just better chances for
rain, but thunderstorms as well...and with models showing more
instability also working its way in from the south and decent
deep layer shear, some of these storms being on the strong to
severe side are not out of the question. The entire forecast
area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area (main
concern being hail), but models today have trended that better
potential across roughly the SErn half of the forecast
area...will see how things trend over the next 2 days. Outside
of the rain/storm chances increasing through the day, expecting
breezy southerly winds to develop as surface low pressure
deepens over eastern CO...with highs climbing into the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Precip chances Thursday-Thursday night are tied to lift out
ahead of the main upper level system...chances in the forecast
for Friday are tied to the passage of that system itself.
Confidence in chances through Friday night are not high...as
there are some notable differences between models with the
strength of the system and exactly where it tracks. Some keep it
a more closed system, tracking it a touch further NW and
potentially bringing a dry slot to the forecast area, resulting
in little precip...others are more open, tracking more over the
area and bringing better chances. The accompanying surface cold
front is also working its way through the region on Friday, not
doing any favors for confidence in high temperatures...current
forecast has 50s in the NW to near 70 in the SE.

This weekend and on...

Forecast for this weekend into the start of the new work week is
dry, with models showing northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of
Friday`s system turning more zonal with time. The `coolest` day
of this period is Saturday, with highs mainly in the
mid-60s...with forecast highs climbing into the 70s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence that at the least the first 12 hours features
either an MVFR/IFR ceiling. At least a few hours of MVFR
visibility (perhaps IFR) also seems fairly probable in at least
light fog, but this is of lower confidence. As for winds, they
will be of little impact throughout the period, with sustained
speeds largely at-or-below 8KT. Direction is best described as
variable through at least the first 12 hours, with more of a
southerly component kicking in Wednesday afternoon-evening.
Precipitation-wise, unless some light drizzle manages to
develop from the low stratus (not a high probability), this is
an otherwise high-confidence dry period.

- Ceiling/visibility details:
Right out of the gate early this morning, an expansive MVFR
stratus deck blankets much of south central NE (including
KGRI/KEAR), but visibility remains VFR. While confidence is very
high that at least MVFR ceiling will persist through around 20Z
KEAR/21Z KGRI, of less certainty is the potential for ceiling
to perhaps drop to IFR/LIFR range, and visibility to drop to
MVFR/IFR range. Despite the lower confidence in these lower
categories, usually reliable model guidance is "insistent"
enough that have gone prevailing IFR ceiling/MVFR visibility at
both KGRI/KEAR 09-17Z...and TEMPO LIFR ceiling/IFR visibility at
KEAR 12-15Z. Although "exact" timing could still be 1-2 hours
off, have at least medium-high confidence that low stratus will
steadily vacate from west-to-east this afternoon...and have a
return to VFR targeted for 20Z KEAR/21z KGRI. Once skies clear,
confidence is fairly high in VFR through the remainder of the
period, although will have to watch for perhaps some light fog
to try settling in late Wednesday evening and especially into
the next TAF valid period for Thursday AM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ039-046-
     060-061-072-073-082-083.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion