Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

484
FXUS63 KOAX 130428
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday morning with
  additional thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and
  evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible, especially during the afternoon and evening.

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday with
  increasing uncertainty beyond this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

After a quiet Friday, thunderstorms return to the forecast early
Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will be in response to
moisture return on a low-level jet impinging on a slowly sagging
cold front. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of eastern Nebraska prior to sunrise.
These thunderstorms will be in an environment that is forecast
to have sufficient instability and shear for the development of
large hail in the strongest cells. A damaging microburst can`t
be entirely ruled out also. These thunderstorms gradually shift
east of the area through the remainder of the morning hours.

There is a bit of uncertainty on how the remainder of Saturday
will transpire. Some of this evening`s guidance tends to keep at
least some weak convection along the cold front into the early
afternoon, accelerating it`s advance southward. Other guidance,
has a lull in activity until later in the afternoon and
evening, slowing the front`s advance. In either event, a
digging trough over the northern Rockies tonight will sink
towards our area by afternoon. This will act to support the
development of additional thunderstorms along the cold front. At
this time, most of this convection is forecast to remain south
of Interstate 80. With plentiful instability and wind shear, a
risk of severe weather is anticipated. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado remains
possible if a discrete cell can remain ahead of the front. In
addition, flash flooding is possible with westerly upper-level
flow supporting potential training of thunderstorms along the
east-west oriented front. It should be noted, that if early day
convection lingers, this could inhibit later convection, so we
will have to closely monitor forecast trends.

By evening, the cold front and any associated thunderstorms will
push south and out of the region. A gusty north wind will fill
in behind the front, ushering cooler temperatures. High pressure
and cooler weather settles in on Sunday into early next week.
Tuesday into Wednesday sees temperatures begin to climb once
again as the pattern amplifies ahead of our next potential
weather system on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening
appears to be our next chance of rain for the area. After
Wednesday`s system, forecast model guidance begins to diverge
and significant uncertainty remains on the exact evolution of
the forecast pattern in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to largely prevail through the TAF
period. Southerly winds will continue into tonight as a low-
level jet develops over portions of the area. This may result in
LLWS at OFK and OMA early Saturday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated on the leading edge of this jet
over portions of Northeast Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance
has thunderstorms in the vicinity of OFK before quickly lifting
north. OMA and LNK are not expected to see any impacts currently.
A cold front will begin to sag south through the area Saturday
afternoon. Winds will shift towards the west then north along
and behind this front, eventually becoming gusty. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the
front. Currently, the bulk of any thunderstorms is expected to
be focused south of OMA and LNK. If thunderstorms were to
develop near these terminals, it is most likely between 21-00Z.
That said, confidence in impacts is low at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

105
FXUS63 KGID 130005
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
705 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight. Widespread severe
  weather is unlikely, but some marginally severe hail cannot be
  ruled out.

- A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, and another
  round of isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon,
  mainly southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. A
  few storms could be strong to marginally severe.

- Next week starts off cool on Sunday, but the 90s return by
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle,
and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly
winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few
thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to
the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited
thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see
some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being
said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry
through sunrise Saturday.

On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push
through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be
~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas
will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid
afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing
near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely
southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones.
Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become
strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and
0-6km shear 30-40kt.

Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for
Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the
40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High
temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid
70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening
through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over
the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to
reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push
100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager
through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a
more active period again starting the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Gusty southerly winds will weaken through this evening, especially
after sunset. A SSW nocturnal low-level jet will develop and
intensify overnight, causing low-level wind shear between
6-12Z.

A cold front will move through the area, possibly initiating a
few thunderstorms that could impact both KEAR and KGRI between
7-11Z. This risk is illustrated in a PROB30 group due to the
lower confidence in location and coverage of these storms.
If any severe thunderstorms impact the terminals, some hail may
be possible. Additionally, some guidance is highlighting a
chance for low MVFR ceilings during and post cold front passage.
Because there is little model consensus with this phenomena,
these low clouds are illustrated as being scattered in the TAF.

Post cold frontal passage, northerly winds will increase in strength
into the afternoon, gusting up to 25 kts for both locations.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion