58°F
Updated:
5/22/2026
00:13:29am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
301 FXUS63 KOAX 220422 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1122 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through Friday morning. Another broken line of storms is expected later Friday with a strong to severe storm or two possible. Hail is the primary hazard. - A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry conditions expected through the holiday weekend. - Rain chances return by the middle of next week, though timing and coverage remain uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Friday... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis depict an upper-level trough moving from the Front Range into the central and northern Plains, maintaining generally southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Increasing moisture transport and forcing for ascent have led to shower and thunderstorm development this evening, which will become more widespread overnight. PoPs range from 75-100% and peak at most locations during the mid to late morning hours (8AM-11AM). Enough elevated instability is present for a few embedded thunderstorms through the period. Showers will clear from west to east late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, with highs reaching the 60s to low 70s. By late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the main vorticity maximum will pivot across the Dakotas and push a cold front through the area. A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the front as it moves west to east across the forecast area. The stronger shear and better instability will remain displaced from one another, limiting overall severe weather potential. Instability will be maximized across southeast NE and southwest IA, where 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop, while higher values remain south of the NE/KS border. Meanwhile, the stronger bulk shear will remain north of the NE/SD border, with only around 25-30 kts extending into the local area. With this setup, ingredients may be sufficient for a strong to severe storm or two across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. Hodographs do support the potential for a low topped supercell or two. This round of storms should move through quickly, with precipitation expected to exit the area before midnight. CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in placing the highest rainfall totals over the next 24 hours in swatch from northeast NE into northwest IA. HREF guidance bring a 70-100% probability of at least 0.50 inches of precipitation across northeast NE, with probabilities decreasing farther south. There is also a 50-75% probability of at least 1 inch of rainfall across portions of northeast Nebraska. Localized pockets may push towards 1.50 inches. A welcome sight after the area missed out on a lot of meaningful rainfall so far this season. Saturday through Monday... A warming trend will take hold through the holiday weekend as mid- level riding and surface high pressure slide into the area. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 70s on Saturday, low 80s on Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Generally dry conditions are expected through the holiday weekend. A weak vorticity maximum passing by to the north may bring a stray light shower or two on Monday. Moisture will be very limited, so the holiday is not expected to be a washout by any means, but a low chance (around 10- 15%) for a light shower will remain possible early Monday. Tuesday and Beyond... The large-scale pattern becomes somewhat uncertain next week as a trough moves onshore across the western CONUS. Long-range guidance diverges on the speed and placement of this features as it progresses eastward, leading to uncertainty in the timing and location of precipitation chances. For now, highs generally remain in the mid 80s, with intermittent 30-50% PoPs Tuesday through Friday. Expected further refinements to precipitation timing as the period approaches. No particular day currently stand out for severe weather, as more meaningful moisture advection and forcing for ascent don`t arrive until at least midweek and appear maximized to our west for the time being. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 517 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 MVFR ceilings have worked into KLNK early this evening and will continue to spread northward into all the terminals through the remainder of the evening. Rain showers will overspread the terminals later this evening into Friday morning. Confidence is high (80% chance) that each terminal will see rain showers tonight, though the scattered nature of showers may leave some gaps in coverage and timing. Patchy IFR conditions are possible, primarily at KOFK and KLNK, under heavier showers. Some isolated pockets of thunder are possible tonight, but the best chances come with a broken line of thunderstorms over far eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon. Winds will generally remain out of the southeast through the period, increasing to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts late Friday morning into the afternoon. Rain chances will clear with ceilings gradually improving in the final few hours of the forecast period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
163 FXUS63 KGID 212337 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to widespread showers this evening-Friday morning. Overall chances are highest along/northwest of the Tri-Cities. - Rain accumulations range from 0.10" in the southeast to 0.5-1" or more in the northwest. - Highs climb into the 80s Sunday onwards with scattered, low confidence chances for precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 This afternoon-Friday... Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid- late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway 81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10" across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1" across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across southeastern portions of the area. Saturday... Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%) for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday evening. Sunday Onwards.... Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details are uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Ceilings are expected to continue to decrease this evening to MVFR then IFR. IFR ceilings are expected by 06z. Ceilings are not expected to improve until the late morning hours. VFR ceilings will return by 20z. Southeast winds will become more southerly by 12z then become southwesterly to westerly beginning around 18z. Rain showers are expected first at KEAR then at KGRI this evening and will continue off and on through most if not all of the morning hours on Friday. There is a small chance of a thunderstorm impacting the terminals as well. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Schuldt
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