Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

657
FXUS63 KOAX 251059
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
559 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at
  times today through Friday. The best chance of rain is over
  southeast Nebraska.

- Expect very hot and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday as
  highs reach into the 90s to low 100s each day and heat index
  values approaching 105.

- Hot and humid conditions are likely to last into next week.
  Evening to overnight thunderstorms may be possible during this
  time as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A shortwave trough is currently pushing southeast from the
northern Plains to the Great Lakes. This has led to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the high plains to the west of
our area. Further to the east, showers and thunderstorms have
begun to push into the area late this evening. The best rain
chances are anticipated over southeast Nebraska with a few
showers further north as we head through the overnight hours.
With rain and clouds in the forecast tonight, temperatures
remain mild through Thursday morning, only falling into the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday into Friday sees a largely stalled front from the
aforementioned trough draped across the southern Plains up into
the Midwest. Meanwhile, surface high pressure sets up to our
north. This results in cooler temperatures on Thursday ranging
from the low to mid 70s. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but with greatest forcing
to our south and surface high pressure sitting to our north,
coverage may be limited. Overall, rain chances are low (20-40%
chance) for most of the area with slightly higher rain chances
(50-70%) across far southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa.
Temperatures remain mild with continued rain chances Thursday
night into Friday morning with more upper 50s and low 60s.
Showers and thunderstorms begin to push east of the region by
Friday evening as temperatures warm slightly into the upper 70s.

A pattern shift arrives this weekend as mid- to upper-level
ridging takes hold across the central and eastern CONUS. The
heat holds off on Saturday with 80s currently expected, but the
same can not be said on Sunday. Hot and humid weather
overspreads the region by Sunday afternoon and this pattern
should largely hold into at least early next week. Temperatures
push well into 90s with dewpoints hovering in the upper 60s to
low 70s. This combination results in heat indices in the low
100s for most of the area, likely approaching 105 for some.
These temperatures will be closely monitored for potential heat
products in future forecasts. Heading into next week, the worst
of the heat subsides, but this only shaves a few degrees off
our temperatures. The more substantial change will be the return
of thunderstorm chances. As troughs round the periphery of the
ridge, evening and overnight thunderstorm systems may develop to
our west and push through portions of the area. It is too early
to say how widespread these thunderstorms may be or if severe
weather will be possible, but as a reminder severe weather
season is not over just yet, so remain weather aware.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Spotty showers and storms are expected to continue through at
least mid-morning, though generally expect VFR conditions to
prevail, with any MVFR brief and isolated. So far, TS is pretty
limited in coverage, so included only -SHRA. Guidance is
somewhat split on if ongoing precip will last into the
afternoon. If it does, think it will be even more spotty than it
is now, with any higher chances remaining south of LNK, so did
not include mention for now. Otherwise, ceilings should remain
around 5000 to 8000 ft with winds outside of showers/storms
mostly under 10 kts, out of the northeast to east.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

440
FXUS63 KGID 251152
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered, off and on thunderstorms will impact the area
  through tonight. A few stronger storms with small hail and
  wind gusts to near 50 MPH will be possible primarily across
  our Kansas counties.

- Relatively cool afternoon temperatures are expected for this
  afternoon (upper 60/70s) with above normal temperatures and
  more humid and breezy conditions returning this weekend.

- An overall-drier regime arrives Friday and continues through
  the upcoming weekend, with the next chance (20-30%) for
  thunderstorms returning Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The stronger storms that impacted western and southern portions
of the forecast area early in the night have since weakened,
with scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms
continuing in spots early this morning. With additional showers
and storms, along with significant cloud cover, anticipated to
persist through the daytime hours, another afternoon of below
normal temperatures is anticipated across the local area. This
will be the last "cool" day of the forecast period, with above
normal temperatures returning by the weekend as upper level
ridging and breezy southerly flow establishes itself across the
plains.

Regarding precipitation chances, while showers and storms will
be around the local area all day, overall, CAMS have backed off
on coverage and some areas may receive little to no additional
activity at all. Additionally, given diminishing instability
values, severe weather appears unlikely, but kept a mention of
some stronger storms possible across our Kansas counties as
parts of this area remain in a marginal risk for severe weather
from the SPC. Storms should diminish across the local area
overnight tonight as shortwave ridging brings warmer
temperatures and higher confidence dry weather to the local area
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The Central Plains sits under weakly tilted northwesterly flow,
that will become more zonal over time. This will cause the
remainder of the work week to be active with scattered showers
and thunderstorms persisting off and on throughout. Activity
will begin to ramp up this evening, peaking during the day
Thursday and tapering off overnight Thursday into Friday
morning. The instability is better off to the west, which will
keep the strongest storms away from the area.

As of this AFD issuance, there is a persistent thunderstorm
moving southeast across the sandhills of Nebraska. High-
resolution internal Ensemble WoFS shows this thunderstorm
tracking south and east towards Grand Island and further
southeast. This thunderstorm is really riding the instability
gradient southeast and generally has about 500-1000 J/Kg to work
with, meanwhile shear is plentiful.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase into the
overnight hours, which is supported by a variety of model
solutions and it will persist in an off and on nature. Due to
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, expect
temperatures to be cool - highs in the 60s to low 70s...which is
about 20 degrees below normal for the end of June.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the area during the
day Friday.

Moving into the weekend, a trough begins to dig in to the
Pacific Northwest and the upper level pattern for the Central
Plains switches to southwesterly as ridging builds into the Ohio
valley by early next week. This pattern change will cause winds
to become southerly and breezy at times, and for moisture
transport to increase. Temperatures will warm back into the
summer like temperatures with highs in the 90s expected for the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Lots of mid level stratus persisting across the terminals this
morning with MVFR stratus upstream of the terminals expected to
fill in across the local area this afternoon. Given the
possibility of SHRA/TSRA development during the afternoon hours,
included a VCSH mention at both terminals aft 25/18Z with a
prob30 group introduced to cover the potential for an isolated
TSRA or two. CIGS are forecast to be MVFR or lower this evening,
with the potential for some light BR overnight, but did not
completely buy into BR potential given low probs, so only have
marginal MVFR CIGS through the end of the period to cover the
stratus. Overall, winds will be mainly light through the period,
although a few gusts to near 16 KTS will be possible this
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion