Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

935
FXUS63 KOAX 241854
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
154 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog is expected to redevelop overnight.

- Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat
  index values reaching near 105 on Saturday and 105 to 115
  Sunday and Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Saturday
  afternoon through Monday evening. An Extreme Heat Watch is
  also in effect for the Omaha metro into southwest Iowa Sunday
  afternoon through Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Drizzle and fog were slow to dissipate this morning and temps
have struggled to manage 70F by 1pm under overcast skies. We do
expect to see clearing from west to east this evening as the
shortwave responsible for the ascent ejects east. This
clearing, humid low levels, and slowing sfc winds should allow
for widespread fog development by sunrise. Confidence for fog
observations is higher than what is typical. Dewpoint
depressions are expected to hit zero.

.SATURDAY...

Heat dominates the weekend`s forecast. For Saturday, temps will
range from triple digits in Antelope, Knox, and Cedar counties
to the north, to lower 90s in southwest Iowa as ridging elbows
in from the west. Expect sunshine with Tds pushing into the
70s. The GFS is continuing to over-mix, a known summer
problem... which bleeds into the NBM. This leaves NBM dewpoints
a bit low on avg, so I`ve remedied that. As it stands, max heat
index values will meet 105 for all but the southern two tiers of
southeast Nebraskan counties on Saturday. A heat advisory
begins for the entire area at noon. Overnight lows falling into
the middle to lower-70s on Saturday night simply increases the
heat- related illness risk and is another reason to play it
liberal with the heat headlines. It will be difficult to cool
homes with no A/C.

.SUNDAY...

Confidence is growing in the need for the EXTREME HEAT WATCH to
be replaced by an EXTREME HEAT WARNING for Sunday and frankly,
it`s likely (85%) to be expanded westward, replacing the heat
advisory across much of the eastern Nebraska plains beyond the
Omaha metro. Collaboration with neighboring offices lead me to
hold off on headline changes for now.

With a bump up in dewpoints and forecast temperatures, max heat
indices will range from near 107 in southeast Nebraska to near
111 elsewhere in the CWA. Skies should be sunny again and there
doesn`t look to be much for possible failure points, although a
shortwave moving through Minnesota is worth monitoring in case
of a track change.

.MONDAY...

Monday`s forecast looks just as hot as Sunday`s... at least for
the majority of the area, but it comes with decreased
confidence. A (dry) cold front will be pushing in from the
northwest and deterministic models are whipping up an MCS that
pushes through central Iowa mid-day. This outflow could lead to
a "surprise" pool of cooler air or persistent mid-day cloud
cover. The extreme heat watch is best left unperturbed for
Monday.

.LONGER TERM...

The ridge begins to break down / retrograde on Tuesday /
Wednesday allowing northwest flow to push occasional shortwaves
through the area. Best chances (30%) are late on Wednesday
night. High temperatures will end up just above seasonal norms,
representing a significant drop from this weekend/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

IFR conditions are common across the area this morning with
overcast skies near FL006 and reduced visibilities. Guidance has
been over-optimistic in clearing it out all day, so confidence
on its improvement by 20Z is low (60%).

Expect to see another found of similar conditions develop
overnight tonight with patchy fog introduced now at KOMA and
KOFK with IFR cigs and reduced visibility.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-
     088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ052-053.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

664
FXUS63 KGID 242120
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
420 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog (some possibly dense?) likely across at least
  portions of our forecast area (CWA) late tonight into Sat AM.

- Following our brief/recent reprieve, above-average HEAT
  returns as our NUMBER 1 STORY for Sat-Mon, with actual
  afternoon high temps mainly 95-105 degrees, and peak heat
  index values mainly 100-110 (localized slightly higher
  possible especially counties east of Hwy 281). A Heat Advisory
  continues CWA-wide Saturday-Monday.

- Temps/heat index for beyond Monday: Although not as
  oppressive and likely below Advisory criteria, at least
  slightly above- average highs in the low-mid 90s look to
  prevail Tues-Fri. In other words, no "dramatic" cool-down on
  the way this time.

- Rain/thunderstorm potential: Our official forecast remains
  void of any mentionable (15+%) chances until Monday evening,
  after which times various/intermittent chances return.
  However, we cannot completely rule out later forecasts
  including at least limited/low chances for a few showers as
  early as Sat night in our far north, and perhaps a few
  thunderstorms Sunday night mainly in our far north/northeast
  counties (something to keep an eye on).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
Honestly, it was this forecaster`s first true 7-day forecast
shift in a while, so am admittedly lacking much "personal
history" with recent trends. Overall though, a quick comparison
of our previous (overnight shift) forecast to this latest one
reveals primarily minor/limited changes.

Temperature and heat index wise:
If anything, expected peak heat index values have crept a touch
higher for Saturday (remaining similar for Sunday-Monday).
Barring any unforeseen cloud issues and/or outflow boundaries
getting in the mix, all three afternoons/early evenings should
feature widespread peak heat index 100-110, with at least
localized spots mainly within Nebraska counties east of Hwy 281
(where dewpoints/humidity will be highest) at least briefly
creeping above 110 heat index. Although 110+ is technically our
Extreme Heat Warning criteria, at least for now we are calling
for small enough of an area to breach 110+ for only a limited
amount of time...that was comfortable just keeping a Heat
Advisory in place through all three days at this time.

Rain/thunderstorm potential:
As touched on in Key Messages above, parts of the Saturday
night-Sunday night time frame might not be truly "guaranteed"
dry...despite our lack of official mentionable rain chances in
our official forecast (which need to be 15+% to be included).
Although still over 48 hours away and carrying a high degree of
uncertainty, what likely bears most watching is Sunday evening-
overnight, during which time there is limited model support
(albeit including the often-reliable ECMWF) for thunderstorm to
TRY slipping into our mainly our far northern/northeast
counties. IF this occurs, probably cannot rule out the potential
for a strong to marginally-severe storm, and we`ll acknowledge
here that SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe (level 1
of 5) to some of our northern/northeast counties on their latest
Day 3 Outlook.


- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. July 31):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Once the last of any spotty measurable showers moved out by
around sunrise this morning, the main question today was how
efficiently an expansive lower stratus cloud deck would clear,
and the resultant impact on temps. In short, the low stratus has
proven slower/more stubborn to clear across especially the
majority of our Nebraska CWA, with cloudy/mostly cloudy
conditions still hanging tough at this time in most places, in
turn keeping current temps in the 70s. In fairly sharp contrast,
no worse than partly cloudy (if not mostly sunny) skies have
prevailed this afternoon within our KS zones along with some of
our western-most Nebraska counties (such as Dawson/Furnas),
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 80s and even low 90s.

As we get into late afternoon/evening, clouds should continue to
SLOWLY scatter out/break up from west-to-east and south-to-
north, but probably not in time to get our entire
central/eastern CWA into the 80s as earlier expected (if nothing
else, official daytime highs will likely be later-than-usual).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that we remain under
northwesterly flow aloft, directed between a prominent upper
ridge/high centered over the Four Corners region, and a broad
trough positioned from the Great Lakes region into the
northeast states. At the surface, the pressure gradient is
weak...keeping wind speeds mainly well under 10 MPH across the
majority of our CWA..with direction mainly from the south-
southeast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although a few showers could try developing slightly east of our
CWA generally along eastern parts of the NE/KS border area,
confidence is fairly high in our going dry forecast. That leaves
the evolution of low clouds and/or fog as the "million dollar
question" for tonight. As already mentioned, low clouds have
been slower to clear today in many central/eastern counties, and
latest RAP low-level RH fields suggest some of our eastern-most
Nebraska counties might struggle to clear until closer to 10-11
PM. This raises some concern that fog could develop earlier than
currently expected tonight...possibly favoring the western edge
of the "clearing line". However, our official forecast is geared
more toward the latest HRRR solutions, which keeps us largely
fog-free until post-midnight...after which time at least a
50-mile wide corridor of fog (perhaps dense?) could materialize
in generally west-southwest to east-northeast fashion across
parts of our CWA (currently most favoring central areas). That
being said, there is some inherent uncertainty even at this
close range (typical of especially summer fog potential), as a
light west-southwesterly wind component (downslope) in the
boundary layer MIGHT try working against truly dense fog
development. In the end, opted to blanket our entire CWA with at
least generic "patchy fog" potential for the late night hours,
and have acknowledged in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID)
that at least localized dense fog (and thus a potential
Advisory) is possible. Will defer to later shifts for any
possible Advisory issuance, however.

Otherwise overnight, low temps are forecast to bottom out mainly
66-71 degrees.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
Here comes the heat (as the upper high/ridge over the Southwest
builds northeastward more into the central U.S.) ! Unlike
today, and even IF the morning starts out with lingering
fog/dense fog...the shallower nature of the low level moisture
should allow skies to clear much faster...paving the way for a
sunny/mostly sunny day CWA- wide. As was the case with our last
heat wave, various models/guidance are likely aiming a bit too
high on actual temps (especially in the northeast half of our
CWA where coverage of row crops is most prevalent), and in turn
might be slightly under-doing dewpoints/humidity in these same
areas. However, even if these errors are in play, these factors
should "cancel each other out" to some degree and result in
effective heat index values being of reasonably-high confidence.
As it currently stands, we`re calling for actual high temps
mainly 95-100 degrees...and highest heat index mainly 100-109
(supporting the Heat Advisory). Winds will be steady but fairly
light (mainly near- to-under 10 MPH) out of the south-southeast
during the afternoon...offering minimal relief.


- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Not expecting any fog issues for a change, and our going dry
forecast continues s the dominant upper ridge should shunt vast
majority of any convection at least slightly to our north. That
being said, latest HRRR hints at some spotty/high-based showers
trying to brush into our far northern counties through the
night...so this cannot be completely ruled out. In the presence
of light southerly winds, overnight low temps only drop into
the low-mid 70s.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
The daytime looks to be another steamy/hot one, albeit with a
bit more of a southerly breeze than Saturday (sustained 10-15
MPH/gusts 20+ MPH). Even so, high temps within a few degrees
either side of 100 should push max heat index solidly into the
105-110 range most areas.

For Sunday evening-overnight, will need to watch our far
northern/eastern counties just in case some showers/storms can
sneak in and overcome the vary warm air/capping aloft (as
previous mentioned SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk on its
latest Day 3 outlook). Low temps again warm...mainly 72-77
degrees.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
One final day of notable heat and the last day of the official
Advisory, as SLIGHTLY cooler air works in behind a weak "cold
front" that will usher in more easterly breezes. Still though,
temps/heat index currently aimed very similar to Sunday`s
values. With slightly better support in the model world versus
Sunday night, our official forecast DOES include some low-end
thunderstorm chances for Monday evening-overnight as there is
better agreement that the dominant ridge weakens enough to allow
some convection in from the west.


- TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
In short, it remains seasonably warm...but at least slightly
cooler than previous days with actual high temps mainly low-mid
90s and heat index values mainly topping out 95-100 each of
these four days. Although still of the VERY low confidence
variety, we are carrying intermittent chances for showers and
what should MAINLY be fairly weak storms (given fairly weak deep
layer wind shear).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
-- General overview (including winds):
With high confidence in dry/rain-free conditions through the
period, by far the main challenge is ceiling/visibility trends.
Although there is high confidence in several hours of VFR
ceiling/visibility from mid-late afternoon through at least late
this evening...along with a return to VFR late in the period
Saturday morning-early afternoon...the late-night/early Sat AM
hours bring concerns for another round of fog and/or very low
stratus. However, there remains plenty of uncertainty in just
how poor/long-lasting any sub-VFR conditions might be, with the
possibility in categories easily ranging anywhere from MVFR to
LIFR...and even VLIFR in dense fog not totally out of the
question.

Of much higher confidence is that winds will be light and a
minimal issue throughout, with sustained speeds mainly at-or-
below 7KT...and primarily from some variation of a southerly
direction.


-- Ceiling/visibility details/uncertainty:
- Right away this afternoon:
Right out of the gate, MVFR ceiling persists at both KGRI/KEAR.
Over the next few hours, this ceiling should gradually lift
and/or begin to scatter, but latest satellite/model trends
suggest it will be roughly 21Z before a higher-confidence return
to VFR commences (perhaps closer to 22Z especially KGRI?).

- For late tonight-Sat AM:
Although there are plenty of "mixed signals" in models/guidance,
the primary concern remains 08-14Z, during which time fog and/or
very low stratus is a distinct possibility in a very light wind
regime under mostly clear skies. About the only possible
negating factor could be a light west-southwesterly (downslope)
component to the surface and boundary lighter winds...which
sometimes keeps fog from being quite as extensive as it
otherwise might be. At any rate, while ceiling and/or visibility
categories could realistically range anywhere from MVFR to LIFR
(and possibly even brief VLIFR in dense fog), given that these
issues are still 12+ hours away and given the
uncertainties...opted to maintain the same "middle ground"
scenario included in previous/12Z TAFs...aiming for prevailing
IFR visibility/LIFR ceiling 08-14Z (with any potential fog/low
stratus quickly lifting/scattering out thereafter).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion