Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

476
FXUS63 KOAX 122300
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
500 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy and warm Tuesday with a 20-40% chance of
  light rain or sprinkles. The gusty winds may lead to localized
  areas of very high fire danger.

- Windy Thursday night and Friday with a 30 to 70% chance of
  wind gusts of at least 45 mph. Highs in the 30s and 40s
  Thursday falling into 20s and 30s by Saturday.

- Highest measurable precipitation chances of 30 to 40% (snow)
  in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa Friday. The snow
  and strong winds could lead to travel impacts (10-30%
  chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level
disturbance moving through the mid MO Valley this afternoon with
a relatively small area of mid/upper-level cloudiness associated
with it`s passage. Temperatures are considerably warmer today
than previous days with readings in the 50s to low 60s as of 3
PM. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows in the 30s
to low 40s.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, a shortwave trough currently
emerging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies is forecast to
amplify as it progresses through the northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing series of vorticity lobes are
expected to settle south through the central Plains and Ozarks.
Increased forcing for ascent tied to those features will
contribute to top-down saturation of the atmosphere, and a
chance of light rain or sprinkles (peak PoPs of 30-40% in
northeast NE) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Some of the
light precipitation could mix with light snow before ending
Tuesday night.

At the surface, the primary cyclone will remain linked to the
lead disturbance well to our northeast; however, a trailing
front will move through the region late tonight into Tuesday
morning. A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the
front will support strong northwest with gusts of 30-40 mph
Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures and the rangeland fire
danger category will be influenced by the extent of cloud cover
and any associated areas of light precipitation. This forecast
update will indicate temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with
rangeland fire danger in the high to locally very high category.


Wednesday and Wednesday night:

This will be an "in-between-systems" day with surface high
pressure quickly building through the area. Winds will remain
breezy from the north with cooler high temperatures in the 30s.


Thursday through Sunday:

A vigorous shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet streak
are forecast to move through the mid MO Valley Thursday and
Thursday night, following by a secondary vorticity ribbon Friday
afternoon into Friday night. In the low levels, a cold front
attendant to the lead wave is expected to move through the area
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. We`ll see a brief
period of warmer temperatures ahead of the front with highs in
the upper 30s and 40s Thursday afternoon. A colder air mass will
filter into the region behind the front with highs falling into
the 30s Friday, 20s and 30s Saturday, and mainly 30s Sunday.

Northwest winds are expected to strengthen considerably behind
the surface front Thursday night into Friday with the 12z EPS
indicating a 30-70% chance of wind gusts of at least 45 mph
Friday. The winds are expected to diminish Friday night.

The 12z global models continue to indicate the best measurable
precipitation chances to our northeast during this time frame
with the highest local PoPs of 30-40% occurring Friday in
northeast NE and west-central IA. Precipitation type at that
time would be snow with the 12z GrandEnsemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS)
indicating a 40-70% chance of at least a tenth of an inch
accumulation. The snow and strong winds could lead to reduced
visibilities and resultant travel impacts (10-30% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. High clouds will pass by this evening with calm
southwesterly winds gradually veering to northwesterly. LLWS is
expected to develop tonight (13/04-05Z) as northwesterly winds
increase to 40-50 kts around FL015. LLWS will gradually diminish
by 13/09-13Z. Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday morning,
with gusts up to 22-26 kts through the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

741
FXUS63 KGID 122325
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
525 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light rain/sprinkles are possible Tuesday afternoon
  through Wednesday morning. A few flurries may mix in late
  Tuesday night.

- It will be increasingly breezy from Tuesday through the end of
  the week. The strongest winds are expected on Friday, with
  gusts of 45 to 55 MPH possible.

- A brief dip in temps Wednesday (30s/40s) before temps climb
  back well above normal Thursday (50s). A return to closer to
  normal temperatures by the end of the week and through the
  weekend (mostly 30s). No significant chance for precip over
  this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

North to northwestelry flow aloft is anticipated through the
period with multiple (mostly dry) disturbances passing by the
region. The most impactful weather of the week will likely be
the very strong winds anticipated later this week, with gusts to
55 MPH possible on Friday.

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, plenty of cirrus
can be streaming across the local area in northwest flow. Expect
this cloud cover to continue through the overnight hours, which
combined with steady westerly winds, will help keep up low
temperatures mostly in the mid-30s to start the day on Tuesday.
These temperatures will be very close to what are normal highs
for mid-January.

For tomorrow afternoon, expect a cold front to rapidly push
south across the area during the afternoon hours with a weak
disturbance aloft helping aid in the development of a few light
showers/sprinkles. Overall, QPF amounts look very minimal (T-a
few hundredths of an inch of precip), but most models have some
light QPF being generated across the local area, and increased
pops just a bit as fully expect some showers and sprinkles
around much of the local area mainly during the afternoon/early
evening hours...although some light showers/sprinkles/flurries
could extend across the northern parts of our forecast area to
start the day Wednesday as indicated in the global models.

Beyond Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes even more
amplified as high pressure expanding north across the west coast
results in a more northerly flow pattern across the plains. As
a result, after a brief uptick in temps Thursday, a more
prolonged stretch of cooler weather returns Friday through
Monday before the longwave trough attempts to shift further
east towards the middle of next week, when a more
northwesterly/mild flow returns. In the meantime, as this push
of colder air makes its way across the area on Friday, expect a
very windy afternoon across the region and will need to continue
to monitor as wind gusts to 55 MPH currently look like the most
impactful weather of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions through TAF period. LLWS is expected to develop
after midnight as winds just above the surface increase. LLWS
weakens during the mid-morning hours on Tuesday as surface winds
begin to strengthen. West-northwest winds sustained around 15kts
and gusts around 25kts are expected throughout most of the
afternoon. Gusts drop to 20kts around the end of the TAF
period. SCT-BKN Cirrus is expected overnight. Ceilings lower
below 10,000ft during the afternoon as a band of
showers/sprinkles move towards the area. Confidence in
rain/sprinkles impacting the TAF sites is too low to include a
PROB30 mention at this time.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion