Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

889
FXUS63 KOAX 081104
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
504 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An inch or two of snow is possible (50-70% chance) in portions
  of northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa today. Minor
  travel impacts may occur, and a Winter Weather Advisory is in
  effect.

- Significantly colder temperatures are to be expected on Sunday
  and Monday. Morning temperatures in the teens and low 20s with
  afternoon highs in the 30s. Wind chills may be as low as the
  single digits during the morning hours.

- Warming temperatures next week with highs returning to the 50s
  and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today and Tonight:

A compact shortwave trough over the northern High Plains early this
morning will progress southeast through the mid-MO Valley today in
tandem with a surface low and associated cold front. Ahead of
those features, clouds have steadily increased with 2 AM
temperatures ranging from around freezing along the SD border
into west-central IA to low 40s in southeast NE.

Since last evening, the models have trended colder with
boundary-layer temperatures across the northern part of our
area, which matches with current observations. And, latest CAM
data suggest that strengthening low/mid-level frontogenesis
ahead of the shortwave trough and surface low will lead to a
period of high precipitation rates within the evolving
deformation axis/TROWAL structure from northeast NE into west-
central IA between 6 AM and 10 AM. Point forecast soundings in
that zone indicate a saturated isothermal layer in the lowest
4-5 kft centered right at the 32f/0c isotherm. 00z HREF data
indicate a 50-60% chance of 0.5"/hr snowfall rates during that
timeframe with a 40-60% chance of 2" of snow along a Hartington
to Wayne to Onawa, IA this morning. It`s important to note those
probabilities are based on a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio with ours
being closer to 6-8:1. That being said, a number of the CAMs
indicate a sharp snowfall gradient developing along that axis
this morning with localized amounts of up to a few inches in
areas where the highest precipitation rates occur. As such, we
have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon
today for Cedar, Wayne, Thurston, and Monona Counties where
minor travel impacts are possible due to periods of low
visibility and slush-covered roads.

The the initial shield of rain and snow will shift east of the
area by early afternoon with an additional round of showery
precipitation spreading south into the area from SD. A mix of
rain and snow appears most probable across portions of northeast
NE into west-central IA, and the Winter Weather Advisory may
need to be expended in time if it becomes apparent that
additional snow accumulations will occur. The showery
precipitation is expected to taper off from north-to-south this
evening into tonight.

Temperatures aren`t expected to warm much today with afternoon
readings ranging from the mid 30s where the snow is expected to
low 50s in the far southwest part of our area. Winds will
strengthen from the northwest this afternoon into tonight with
the passage of the shortwave trough and surface cold front
through the area. The northwest winds will usher a much colder
air mass into the region tonight with overnight lows falling
into the teens and 20s.


Sunday and Monday:

Models are in good agreement in depicting the evolution of a deep,
mid/upper-level low over the Great Lakes into OH Valley, while an
unseasonably strong surface high builds from the northern High
Plains into the central Plains. The high pressure will maintain a
cold, continental-polar air mass across the region with Sunday
morning lows in the teens (as mentioned above), and highs only
reaching the 30s. Lows on Monday morning will be even colder
with readings largely in the teens. Wind chills both mornings
will be in the 5-10 degree range, which will make for a cold
start for those going to work and school Monday morning. The
cold, low-level air mass will start to erode on Monday with
highs warming into the 40s.


Tuesday through Friday:

A high-latitude shortwave trough progressing through central Canada
will hasten the eastward progression of the Great Lakes low
(mentioned above). As a result, a northwest flow regime will become
established from the Rockies into Great Plains, which in turn will
lead to the development of a dry and warmer surface pattern with
highs returning to the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

An initial wave of mainly light rain is moving through the area
this morning, which is expected to shift east of the terminal
locations by 15-17z. Another round of showery precipitation is
forecast to overspread the area by 20-21z and then end by about
00z. The majority of the precipitation is expected to remain
rain, but some wet snow could mix in at KOFK this morning, and
at KOFK and KOMA this afternoon. Confidence in ceilings and
visibilities is low with the general trend of lowering cloud
heights to MVFR and potentially IFR today before transitioning
back to VFR tonight. Currently observed light east winds will
switch to northwest later this morning and then strengthen
considerably later this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ012-015-
     018.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

812
FXUS63 KGID 081203
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will cross the area early this morning and
  bring big changes for the remainder of the weekend - including
  strong NW wind gusts of 35-45 MPH this afternoon, elevated
  fire weather concerns, and much colder temperatures. Wind
  chills in the single digits to mid teens likely Sunday AM!

- After bottoming out in the lower teens Monday AM (and possibly
  in the single digits in our typically coldest spots),
  unseasonably warm temperatures return Tuesday and continue
  much of next week. Several days of highs in the 60s to near 70
  are expected Tue-Sat.

- Light rain showers/sprinkles will exit the area this morning
  with additional showers possible this afternoon/evening,
  especially north of I-80. With temperatures falling this
  afternoon due to strong cold air advection, could even see
  some light snow/flurries across our extreme northeastern areas
  late in the day (with little to no accumulation expected).
  Otherwise, dry conditions are likely for the following 7+
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A few sprinkles moved across the local area early this morning
and have since pushed to areas mainly east of highway 281 as of
4 AM CST. With temperatures remaining above freezing area wide,
little impact is anticipated from these light showers/sprinkles
early this morning - other than some wet streets which can be
seen on area cameras in spots. This activity is ahead of a
strong cold front which is just reaching western and northern
portions of the local area early this morning. As this front
moves across the local area, expect a shift to northwesterly
winds during the morning hours...with winds increasing and
becoming gusty by mid-morning.

While winds will be noticably gusty to start the day, winds are
really anticipated to surge this afternoon as a secondary push
of colder air makes its way across the local area during the
early afternoon hours. While the strongest winds will be across
western Nebraska with this afternoon push (see latest HRRR),
very windy conditions will extend into central Nebraska and
north central Kansas just after noon, with gust to 45 MPH, or
possibly higher, likely later today. As previously advertised,
these very strong winds combined with lower RH values this
afternoon will likely lead to elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions in spots, although minimum RH values will
likely remain above 20 percent, limiting true critical fire
weather concerns.

In addition to the strong winds and fire weather concerns, most
meso-scale models are indicating some shower activity extending
across south central Nebraska as the area of low pressure,
currently diving towards the Black Hills area of South Dakota,
makes its way into Nebraska. While temperatures should be above
freezing, initially, cannot rule out a few snow flakes or
flurries during the late afternoon/early evening hours north of
I-80, as strong cold air advection will result in rapidly
falling temperatures later today. Since precipitation should be
ending as any transition to snow occurs locally, little to no
accumulation is anticipated with the official forecast having
only Trace amounts to a few tenths of an inch of snow extending
from Greeley to Polk counties late in the day. By far, the
better chance for accumulating snow will be limited to extreme
northeastern Nebraska and areas further north and east later
today (outside our local forecast area).

As high pressure fills in behind this system Sunday, a very cold
day with highs likely only in the 30s (with even colder wind
chills in the 20s) is anticipated. As winds then drop off and
skies clear late in the day Sunday, a very cold start
(widespread teens) is anticipated area wide Monday morning. In
fact, some of the numerical guidance has single digits for our
typically coldest spots (MAV & MEX have 5 degrees in Ord) to
start the day. This dive in temperatures, will be short lived,
however, as high pressure from the west nudges into the plains
early next week, resulting in a modest rebound in temperatures
Monday and a return to above normal temperatures and dry
weather for the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR CIGS possible late in the period with strong winds later
today being the primary focus.

Lots of mid Level clouds near 8KFT streaming across the local
area this morning. Satellite indicates this should push east
over the next couple of hours with the low level stratus to our
north likely not impacting either terminal. Light winds ahead of
an approaching cold front will rapidly increase over the next
1-2 HRS...with gusts eventually reaching 35 KTS+ at both
terminals this afternoon. Winds will be slow to diminish this
evening, likely remaining gusty (20 KTS+) through the overnight
hours with some MVFR stratus possible for at least a few hours
aft 09/00Z. While a brief -SHRA will be possible at mainly KGRI
late this afternoon/evening, no mention was included in TAFs
due to low probability.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion