Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

024
FXUS63 KOAX 221050
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers across northeast Nebraska this morning.

- Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend. A marginal risk of severe storms (5-14%) exists
  for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. The best chance of
  severe weather returns next weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the 70s and lows from the middle
  50s to lower 60s through Friday. Highs warm into the 80s to
  low 90s next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Clouds continue to hang around this evening across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We`ve watched the first round of
showers move into northeast Nebraska and fall apart, and the
second round shifted south and is falling apart as it moves
across central Nebraska. Other than a few light showers still
lingering in the area north, the rest of our area is quiet this
evening. Looking at water vapor satellite imagery for the
broader view, we see quasi-zonal flow with a couple of weak
disturbances leading to convective development over eastern
Colorado and western Kansas this evening.

Monday we start to see heights build out to our west with a
trough digging south over the Ohio River Valley. We`ll see the
subtropical Jet shift northeast across our area, leading to
enhanced northwesterly flow. Clouds breaking up through the day
will help us warm up into the mid 70s by the afternoon with
southerly/southeasterly low-level winds advecting moisture into
the area keeping dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s through
the afternoon.

Tuesday we see increased southerly flow ahead of a cold front
stretching south from a low pressure system moving across
Manitoba. Guidance varies on how much we destabilize Tuesday due
to significant cloud cover across the area. This may limit
severe potential but 50-55kt bulk shear over the region could
lead to severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rain if we can generate some CAPE.

More weak disturbances in the northwesterly flow will bring
periodic chances for showers through the end of the week. These
will also keep temperatures cooler with highs staying in the
mid 70s. Going into the weekend we see a strong trough move
into the PacNW help to push the ridge over the Rockies eastward.
This will cause warming temperatures and increased moisture
advection into our area through the weekend. Guidance also
shows potential for some stronger storms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Expect some brief MVFR ceilings at OFK this morning, though they
should rise to VFR levels by mid-day. VFR conditions are
expected elsewhere throughout the period, with some SCT clouds
around 4000-6000 ft agl through the afternoon. Winds will be
northeasterly to easterly to start, but gradually turn
clockwise, settling in at southeasterly. Speeds will generally
remain below 10 kts. Showers and a few storms may be approaching
OFK very late in the period, but guidance currently holds off
until after 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

946
FXUS63 KGID 221127
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may continue to develop across mainly western and
  northern portions of the area overnight into Monday morning.

- Light rain showers may develop and move across primarily
  western and northern portions of the area overnight into
  Monday morning.

- Isolated thunderstorms may move across northwestern portions
  of the area this evening into tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area
  Tuesday morning and afternoon. Some of these storms may be
  strong to marginally severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Rain showers are moving southeast across northern Nebraska and
severe storms are across southern Kansas and northern/central
Oklahoma. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are light out of mostly the east. Temperatures across
the area are in the 50s and 60s. Some light rain showers may move
across northern and western portions of the forecast area overnight
(primarily north of I-80 and west of Highway 281). Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be in the 50s. Some of the overnight
showers may linger into the morning hours past sunrise. Some patchy
fog has already started to develop and may continue into the morning
hours across mainly western and northern portions of the area.
Widespread dense fog is not expected at this time but will continue
to monitor. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this
afternoon with winds becoming southeasterly. High temperatures today
will mostly be in the 70s. An isolated thunderstorm or two may move
across northwestern portions of the area this evening into tonight
(primarily along and north and west of the Tri-Cities area). Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and low 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase and move in from
the north/northwest Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as a
shortwave moves overhead and a cold front approaches. Some of these
storms have the potential to become strong to marginally severe with
the risk increasing to the southwest. Hail up to quarter size and
wind gusts up to 60 MPH would be the main threats with these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight...

Following yesterday and last night`s scattered storms, a band of low-
level stratus continues to blanket a majority of the area. This
cloud coverage has helped keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for
today. The main concern of the day will be from the presence of a
mid-to-upper level shortwave disturbance that looms just northwest
of the area. Though some question remains on how the excessive cloud
coverage today may impact the instability, modeled soundings still
continue to show an elongated profile of weak instability through
much of the low-to-mid levels from the presence of steady lapse
rates holding between 6-7C/km (contributing to 750-2,000J/kg of
MUCAPE). In addition, a deep moist layer with 30-50kts of bulk shear
this afternoon completes the base checklist needed for storms. The
main detractor that may storms from reaching severe criteria would
be from the presence of low-level convective inhibition (stable
air) that storms would need to overcome.

Though activity may not be too widespread this afternoon/evening, a
strong to marginally severe storm could still be feasible to break
into the area from the west/northwest. A few storms, some of which
severe, have already erupted this afternoon out across western
Nebraska. These storms across the next several hours will march
southeast and down into possibly a few western portions of the area.
The main uncertainty will be how long lasting those storms will
remain severe as they march towards a slightly less favorable
environment (some question to how the cloud coverage earlier today
may of inhibited the storm environment). As result, the main severe
threat will be more concentrated closer to the west/southwest
portions of the area between the 5-10PM window. The primary storm
hazards from these storms will be hail up to the size of ping pong
balls with gusty winds near 60MPH. Though an isolated tornado could
be feasible, generally the threat remains low given the fact that
storms are expected to be on the downward trend as they arrive from
the west.

In addition to the severe storms racing in from the Nebraska
sandhills this evening, a mesolow moving down into northern Nebraska
tonight may offer up a few more weaker thunderstorms and showers.
These storms will drop down into a few northern portions of the area
overnight (mainly into a few places north of I-80). The mesolow will
gradually drift east through the morning hours on Monday, collecting
any last last remaining storm with it.


Monday and Tuesday...

Pressure rises Monday from the exit of the shortwave disturbance will
help snuff out most precipitation chances for Monday, although a
spotty or isolated shower/storm coming in from the northwest can`t
be totally ruled out. Besides the low precipitation chance, highs
will remain fairly similar from today (70s), although a few spots in
north central Kansas could overachieve expectations and reach the
low 80s. Winds will be expected to remain light (5-15MPH) under the
influence of higher pressure with wind directions out of the
southeast.

The potential for severe weather could return Tuesday as another
shortwave trough sneaks into the greater Northern Plains region.
Several medium to long range models including the NAM, ECMWF and GFS
are starting to narrow down on the conclusion for a later morning to
early afternoon MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developing along a
southeastward passing cold front. The current projection of this
system has been mainly confined to initialize somewhere across
northwest to north central Nebraska area, moving towards the
southeast through the rest of the day. Though CAPE may be somewhat
limited across the early portions of the day (500-2,000J of MUCAPE
possible), 40-55kts of bulk shear with dewpoints in the 60s (from
the influence of the south to southeasterly surface winds), may be
supportive enough for storms to develop strong to severe criteria
(>1" hail or >58MPH wind gusts).

The SPC has included the full area in a marginal (level 1 of 5)
severe weather outlook for Tuesday with a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
clipping mainly Rooks county in our north central Kansas forecast
area. The main uncertainty at this point in time is knowing
where/when the thunderstorms fire Tuesday. Depending on the speed of
the front and the time of day that storms initialize, the severe
risk could change. Otherwise, highs are expected to remain in the
70s to low 80s as some sort of cloud coverage is possible to remain
around a majority of the area (keeping the potential for widespread
coverage of 80+ degree temperatures low).


Wednesday and Beyond...

The potential for a pop up or scattered thunderstorm/showers returns
almost every day in the long-range forecast, although the best
potential lies Wednesday night (30-60% chances) and Thursday night
(40-60% chances). This seamanly wet period comes as an upper-level
low across southwest Canada interacts with a southwest U.S. ridge.
Numerous break/disturbance will break out of the upper-level flow,
keeping the area underneath sporadic storm activity. Widening
forecast confidence past Tuesday keeps detail limited for now for
any specific individual day.

As far as temperatures go, the general trend is for highs to climb
again, potentially reaching the 90s in a few areas by the end of the
week. It is uncertain how the upper-level flow will break out of its
more unstable pattern, though long-range ensemble forecasts tend to
favor the exit of the low pressure over Canada around the middle of
the week. This would leave some space for the southwest U.S. ridge
build, potentially influencing a end of week warm up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Areas of patchy fog have started to develop around the area,
with fog development likely over the next couple hours for
KEAR/KGRI as the surface environment is nearly saturated. As
the low level cloud layer starts to lift/break up, ceilings will
likely continue to hover around the MVFR/VFR threshold through
this morning, hence the SCT MVFR and OVC VFR forecast. Skies are
expected to continue to lift and clear throughout the late
morning/early afternoon and persist throughout the remainder of
the TAF.

Winds will be light and generally from the SE throughout the
forecast period, increasing to around 8-10 kts during the
afternoon.

The chance (up to 30%) of showers/thunderstorms returns near
the end of the TAF period, mainly after 10Z. However, due to
uncertainty in thunderstorm location and timing, this risk was
not included in the TAF at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion