Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

286
FXUS63 KOAX 271733
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s with dry
  conditions are expected Today and Thursday.

- A shift in the weather pattern marks the return of daily
  shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Thursday evening and
  lasting through this weekend.

- Dry weather and near normal temperatures are anticipated to
  develop by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A slow pattern shift is beginning to take shape across the CONUS. At
the moment, a large upper-level low pressure is located over the
Sierras, with a shortwave extending out into the southern Plains, a
second trough is located over eastern Canada, and a split-ridge is
sitting over the northern Plains and Southeast. Under this split
ridge, our temperatures remain hot today into tomorrow with highs
reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s areawide. These temperatures
are around 10 degrees above normal for the end of May. Under the
influence of the split-ridge, any convection is likely to be
suppressed and conditions remain dry as a result.

Our hot and dry weather begins to loosen its grip by Thursday
evening. As the upper-low over the Sierras begins to weaken, lobes
of enhanced lift will swing out across the Plains into this weekend.
These will help to foster daily shower and thunderstorm chances.
Initially, rain chances will be focused across southwestern portions
of the area. Rain chances expand into eastern Nebraska on Friday, and
the remainder of the area by this weekend. The overall probability
of precipitation remains modest with most locations expecting a low
(15-40%) chance each afternoon and evening. The best chance of
precipitation remain west of the area over central Nebraska.
Thankfully, mid-level ridging will limit wind shear keeping the
threat of organized severe weather to a minimum. Temperatures will
become milder as we return to the lower 80s across the area.

Heading into next week, a blocking pattern may take shape. A trough
over the western CONUS, a building ridge over the Plains, and
another trough over the eastern CONUS sets the stage for stagnant
weather. In this scenario, temperatures are anticipated to be near-
normal in the lower 80s with the worst of the heat displaced to the
north and west of the region. Dry conditions are almost inevitable
with convection becoming suppressed under the ridge. Hopefully, this
stagnant patter does not stick around too long.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light southeast
winds this afternoon with a few cumulus based around 7-9 kft.
Winds should become light and a bit variable tonight. Increasing
upper-level clouds overspread the region also.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

018
FXUS63 KGID 272219
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
519 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected to retain through the afternoon
  hours with only a few isolated showers and non-severe storms
  reaching into portions of northern Kansas and far southwestern
  Nebraska overnight (20-50% chances, greatest to the
  southwest).

- The rest of the coverage area should not see any sort of
  precipitation until Thursday (20-60% chances, greatest towards
  the southwest). No severe weather is expected.

- Off-and-on shower/storm chances will flicker in and out across
  the weekend to the first half of next week. At this time,
  there is no strong signal for severe weather, though higher
  than usual forecast uncertainty keeps details somewhat limited
  for now (subject to change).

- Highs will mainly range the upper 70s and 80s for much of the
  forecast period (through next Wednesday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026


Short Term...Today through Thursday Night

Steady southeast winds this afternoon blowing between 10-15 MPH and
gusting as high as 25 MPH with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will
become a familiar occurrence across the next several days. Similar
returning conditions (highs mainly in the 80s with southeast winds)
will come as a western U.S. upper-level cutoff low temporarily slows
down the forward translation of a negative tilted intermountain west
trough. This feature should lock the southeasterly winds in place
across the area through quite possibly the first half of next week.

Meanwhile, a weak shortwave disturbance sliding up from the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and western Kansas region today will
gradually shimmer northward and into western Nebraska by Friday. A
few scattered showers and non-severe storms in association with this
disturbance will later be slung up into the area from the south
across the next several days.

The first storms could arrive as early as this evening and overnight
tonight for a few isolated northern Kansas and far southwestern
Nebraska locations (20-50% chances, greatest to the southwest). Any
activity tonight will be fairly spotty and isolated in coverage.
More showers and storms should move into the the area Thursday
bringing the full area up to a 20-60% precipitation chances with the
highest confidence concentrated towards northern Kansas and
southwest Nebraska locations. Shower/storm coverage is still
expected to remain spotty to scattered through the day with likely
off-and-on periods of wet and dry conditions (potentially more dry
than wet periods). Any storm that does form will not be expected to
become severe given little available conditional instability
(

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion