56°F
Updated:
4/29/2026
1:58:37pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
548 FXUS63 KOAX 291843 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations will be Thursday and Friday nights. - Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 30%) at times through this weekend. Highest potential will be this evening, Thursday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon. - Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Relatively quiet and cool across the region early this afternoon with surface high pressure in control. However, there were some light radar returns along the NE/SD border ahead of an incoming front and shortwave energy. No obs points were reporting rain nearby likely owing to some dry air still in place, but a few counties to the north, there were some rain obs with some stronger returns. This precip will continue working southward through the afternoon and overnight, bringing some spotty light showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to the area before exiting Thursday morning. It shouldn`t amount to much, just a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch with any storms. Otherwise, overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Can`t completely rule out some frost in low-lying areas in northeast NE, but cloud cover should keep us just warm enough to preclude widespread development. We`ll stay under a similar pattern Thursday and Friday with a trough axis/cyclonic flow aloft and some shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough both days. Latest short term guidance is in pretty good agreement we`ll see additional spotty shower and storm development by the afternoon as that shortwave energy slides through. Some guidance even suggests the non- supercell tornado parameter will be 1 or higher, implying potential for funnel clouds. Lots of smaller scale details to work out there (e.g. will there be a lingering boundary in the area from early morning precip), but something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, temperatures will remain on the cooler side, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. In addition, we`re expecting lows in the lower to mid 30s both Thursday and Friday nights. Given the trend toward clouds or even precip, at least Thursday night, confidence is a little lower that we`ll get cold enough for a true freeze, but certainly looks like a candidate for at least another Frost Advisory in part of the area. Regardless, if you planted anything already, you`ll probably want to cover it up those nights. By Saturday, upper level ridging over the western CONUS will start to slide eastward, bringing some warmer temperatures to the area. Expect mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday followed by widespread 70s Sunday into early next week. However, we`ll still be under northwest flow with guidance hinting at a train of weak shortwaves and surface boundaries sliding through at various times bringing additional precip chances. That said, moisture availability will be rather sparse, so not looking like any high-end widespread precip through Monday. If you`re lucky, you`ll see a few hundredths of an inch. Meanwhile, the ridge will start to break down as a cutoff low moves onshore over CA and associated energy starts to approach the area by Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will bring our next more widespread precip chances. However, still a lot of spread in exact track of this system, with some guidance keeping most of it to our south. For now, have 20-50% chances from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, highest Tuesday evening/night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with lingering clouds between 5000-10000 ft agl. Expect winds to remain under 10 kts, though direction will be changing throughout the period, generally with a westerly to northwesterly component during the day today and Thursday and southerly this evening/overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
853 FXUS63 KGID 291752 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1252 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze conditions may develop overnight into Wednesday morning as temperatures drop to near or slightly below freezing. - A Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for the whole area. - Patchy fog is expected overnight into Wednesday morning for portions of the area. - Showers and thunderstorms may move over portions of the area (15% to 50% chance) late this afternoon into this evening. - Frost/freeze conditions may develop Thursday night and again Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 A surface high is centered in Nebraska and extends southward to Texas and north to South Dakota. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly light out of the north with some variation from the northeast to northwest. Winds may begin to become more westerly late during the overnight hours. Skies will be clear over portions of the area overnight. Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s. These conditions may result in areas of frost and/or freeze during the overnight and into the morning hours. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the whole area until 9 AM. Fog is also a concern across the area overnight but do not think at this time that it will be dense or widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Product. Will continue to monitor in case an advisory is needed. Winds will be mostly light and variable today with temperatures warming up into the low to mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms may move in from the west and northwest late this afternoon into this evening as a shortwave moves overhead (15% to 50% chance). No severe weather is expected. Winds will remain light tonight with low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s. Frost and freeze conditions may develop Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning with light winds, mostly clear to clear skies, and temperatures dropping to near or slightly below freezing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 - FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - No truly significant changes noted versus previous 7-day "forecast package" issued early this AM. - Simply making a broad commentary/big picture theme of the various Key Messages above, this forecaster`s biggest takeaway is that we`re really looking at a fairly ideal weather pattern for this of year...especially from a lack-of-hazardous- weather (mainly from a severe thunderstorm/fire weather perspective and not counting frost/freeze as truly hazardous), and also from a "drought damage control" perspective. In other words, although we`re not expecting truly heavy/"drought- busting" rains over the next week, we ARE calling for only near-to-slightly above normal temperatures (at most) and an overall lack of windy days...keeping soil moisture evaporation to a relative minimum (especially compared to earlier this spring). -- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. May 5): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Although we had at least modest rain chances in today`s forecast for a while, this forecaster will readily admit that the coverage/duration of steady/numerous showers today has exceeded expectations from 24 hours ago. Instead of being more isolated/scattered, showers have instead been more widespread in coverage (especially in our Nebraska zones). While low freezing levels and resultant radar "bright banding" caused raw radar over-estimation of rain amounts in some places (especially early this morning...word of caution on that), ground truth from dozens of airport/mesonet stations confirms that the vast majority of our CWA has picked up (or will still pick up) at least 0.05-0.15" today, with isolated/spotty pockets of at least 0.25" (including much of Dawson County which was largely missed by heavier rain over the weekend). One one final "past weather" note, based on obs JUST west of our CWA at North Platte/Broken Bow, it`s possible that a touch of wet/slushy snow mixed into the rain mainly in our extreme northwestern CWA, but likely with zero accumulation within our borders. As of this writing, rain has cleared out of most of the southwestern half of our CWA, while showers continue drifting across much of our northeast half. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm that a low amplitude (but very evident) shortwave trough is in the process of passing directly overhead our Central Plains region, with the rain gradually exiting from west-southwest to east-northeast as it passes. At the surface, surface high pressure centered slightly to our north has promoted fairly light (mainly around 10 MPH or less) north-northeasterly breezes today. Due heavily to the "over-acheiving" coverage of rain and associated widespread clouds, high temps this afternoon will easily fall 5+ degrees short of expectations from only 12 hours ago in some areas (especially our northern 2/3rds)...with highs now expected to range from no more than mid-upper 40s in most of our Nebraska zones, to low-mid 50s mainly in KS and Thayer County area. - THIS EVENING (pre-midnight): Between 7-9 PM, any lingering light showers still ongoing in our far northern/eastern CWA will steadily depart off to the east. Off to our west, a few showers/weak storms will likely develop over southwest NE/northwest KS, but should fade away before potentially infiltrating our far southwestern CWA. - LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED AM (post-midnight): Although there is very high confidence in dry conditions and a departure of mid-high level clouds, there is still at least modest uncertainty in how efficiently lingering lower level stratus clears out. However, confidence is gradually increasing that we`ll likely see a pretty efficient clear-out (except for perhaps some lingering patches of stratus here or there), as a roughly 1023 millibar surface high pressure center settles directly over our CWA. ASSUMING skies clear as expected, temperatures will surely drop quite efficiently, with late night breezes mainly averaging under 5 MPH from the west-northwest. If anything, low temps were nudged upward very slightly (perhaps not the right direction?), but the vast majority of the CWA is now expected to bottom out 29-36 degrees. While especially some northern/western counties will surely drop slightly below freezing, areas of frost are likely to develop almost anywhere in our CWA. Instead of "splitting hairs" a bit and issuing both a somewhat marginal Freeze Warning and a Frost Advisory, decided to simplify messaging a bit and issue a CWA-wide Frost Advisory to cover the main impact to tender vegetation (a Freeze Warning would have been more strongly considered had we been calling for a more widespread "hard freeze" of 28-or-colder). In other departments, higher-res visibility such as from HRRR suggests that especially the western 1/3 of our CWA will be prone to at least patchy fog development (and possibly spotty dense fog reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less). While the newly-wetted ground and clear skies argue FOR fog formation, the light westerly/downslope breeze often inhibits widespread fog development. Although introduced "patchy to areas" of fog to our official forecast and also our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), definitely did not have enough confidence to issue a proactive Dense Fog Advisory (something to watch though). - WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: In the wake of any early-AM Frost/Freeze and possible fog concerns, the majority of the day will be dry under mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and somewhat variable in direction, but mainly some variation of westerly or northerly. High temps were changed little, with most places aimed pretty uniformly between 62-65 degrees. However, already by late afternoon (mainly after 4 PM), yet another low amplitude wave diving in from the west-northwest will spark more chances for showers/possibly a few weak (non- severe) developing over and/or drifting into mainly our northern/western counties. - WEDNESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Although coverage is only expected to be isolated/scattered, much of the night is expected to feature at least spotty coverage of showers/a few weak storms, and quite a bit more cloud cover (especially post-midnight) versus tonight. ASSUMING this occurs, we should have a "one night break" from frost/freeze concerns (except for MAYBE our far north-northwest counties). Low temps are aimed mainly 38-43 degrees most areas...slightly above frost development. This will need closely monitored however, especially if skies look to be clearer than currently expected. - THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT: Over the course of these 48 hours, our flow aloft turns more northerly than northwesterly, as at least a few weak disturbances drop southward through our region on the backside of a large-scale trough anchored from the Great Lakes into southeast Canada. At the surface, the main feature during this time will be a weak cold front dropping southward through our area Thurs daytime-evening, kicking up northerly breezes a bit (gusts around 20 MPH). Precipitation-wise, chances for isolated/scattered showers and some weak thunderstorms are highest Thursday daytime (and mainly in the southern half of our CWA), before any rain chances depart southward Thursday night and followed by dry weather for Friday. High temps still appear very similar both days (mainly low-mid 60s) and same story with low temps both nights (mainly low-mid 30s). Assuming no unexpected enhanced cloud cover, BOTH Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri night-Sat AM will be good candidates for additional Frost Advisories (maybe Freeze Warnings?). - SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The vast majority of the weekend currently looks dry and overall-pleasant by most folks` standards, with warmer air arriving and resulting in high temps generally near-70 on Saturday, and mainly mid-upper 70s Sunday (and with relatively tame breezes). Saturday in particular looks almost "guaranteed" dry, but honestly Sunday- Sunday night carry a few more question marks as both the ECMWF/GFS depict at least spotty rain at least in the general vicinity of our CWA. As for overnight low temps, they appear to trend slightly milder (mainly upper 30s-mid 40s), taking frost/freeze concerns back out of the picture. - MONDAY-TUESDAY: As usual, uncertainty in the details grows by this range, but our official forecast brings back various mainly small (20-30%) chances for intermittent showers and (probably) weak thunderstorms, as we remain in the path of at least a few disturbances diving down from the north-northwest. High temps are aimed very similar both days...most areas low-mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Relatively high confidence VFR conditions anticipated at both terminals through the period. Mostly clear skies early this afternoon will give way to increasing mid-level clouds over the next few hours as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Expect the bulk of this disturbance to pass south of the terminals during the evening/overnight hours, with BKN CIGS around 10 KFT being the main impact. That said, a few of the CAMS are indicating that a few showers/-TSRAs could impact the terminals between roughly 30/01-31/06Z, and while no mention was included in the 18Z TAFs, would not be surprised if something briefly clipped either terminal with near MVFR CIGS possible at times tonight. This disturbance should be well south of the terminals by daybreak Thursday, with high confidence VFR conditions returning Thursday morning along with steady westerly winds 12-16KTS aft 30/13Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi/Schuldt DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Rossi
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