Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

027
FXUS63 KOAX 152318
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances continue in eastern
  Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and early evening.
  Large hail will be the primary concern, though damaging wind
  gusts and brief tornado remain possible.

- Warm, dry and windy conditions will brining elevated fire
  weather concerns on Thursday, particularly in east-central
  Nebraska.

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday.
  Cooler air arrives Friday night into the weekend. Saturday
  and Sunday morning lows will dip below freezing for some
  locations, with highs only peaking in the 50s on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

An upper-level wave ejecting northward into the central Plains is
pushing an attendant surface low, currently positioned in southeast
Nebraska, northeastward into central Iowa through the day. This
feature will draw a warm sector northward in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa this afternoon with a weak convergent boundary draped
generally along to just north of the I-80 corridor. Afternoon highs
temperatures are expected to peak in the 70s. Instability will
increase through the day, with a narrow ribbon of SBCAPE values
exceeding 2500 J/kg wrapping into the mid-MO Valley. A few elevated
supercells have already track across northeast Nebraska late this
morning, producing severe hail. The main questions will be if the
warm sector pushes eastward outside of the forecast area before
surface base convection occurs. The latest CAM guidance varies with
some members initiating storms near the Missouri River longitude,
while others don`t develop storms until the feature is further into
western Iowa during the later afternoon hours. If surface based
storms are able to initiate in the forecast area, an initial
supercell storm mode is possible with large hail the primary hazard
given mid-level lapse rates approaching 8-8.5 deg/km. An isolated
tornado threat will also be possible with any surface based storm
able to establish itself given sufficient low-level hodograph
curvature and backing surface winds, especially near the
aforementioned convergent boundary. Damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall will also be on the table. Additional
chances for elevated supercells, with hail the primary hazard,
will continue north of the low through the afternoon.

A brief period of mid-level ridging will slide across the area on
Thursday, bringing a short break from the severe weather potential
along with the return of fire weather concerns. Afternoon highs
temperatures are expected to peak in the 80s, approximately 15-20
degrees above climatological norms. Afternoon relative humidity
values are expected to drop into the 15-35% range, with the lowest
values expected towards east-central Nebraska. Gusty south-
southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph tomorrow afternoon will help to
elevate fire weather concerns, though confidence in winds reaching
Red Flag Warning criteria is low. Most EPS/EPS-AIFS members keep
winds capped around 30 mph. Additionally, RAP model soundings top
out winds at the top of the mixed layer at 20-25 kts. Therefore, we
are continuing the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday and Beyond...

Severe weather potential returns on Friday as an upper-level trough
pushes into the central and northern Plains. An associated surface
low is expected to push across Nebraska through the day, with an
attendant cold front pushing eastward across the region. High
temperatures will depend on where the cold front is before peak
daytime heating, with values peaking in the 70s to low 80s ahead of
the front and the 60s behind the front. Gusty northwesterly winds of
30-35 mph will move in behind the front.

Convective initiation is expected along the cold front with strong
forcing for ascent and ample instability ahead of the boundary. Yet
again, the main question will be how quickly the front crashes
through the area. SPC currently has far southeast Nebraska clipped
in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) with a Slight Risk (level 2
out of 5) draped further west. An initial supercell storm mode
capable of all severe weather hazards looks probable for any storms
that develop in the warm sector. We will have to see how things
trend in regards to cold front placement into the afternoon as the
system approaches. Any lingering precipitation will work its way out
into Saturday morning, with a chance (10-20%) for a brief
rain/snow mix on the back side of the departing precipitation
shield.

The post-frontal airmass will certainly be felt on Saturday, with
morning lows temperatures dipping in the 30s, followed by afternoon
highs topping out in the 50s. Lows again Sunday morning will drop
near freezing for most locations, with the upper 20s expected across
northeast Nebraska. Ensure any sensitive vegetation is protected and
hoses are disconnected. Temperatures will gradually rebound later
Sunday into early next week as mid-level ridging pivots into the
central Plains. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 60s, rising to
the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Ongoing showers
and thunderstorms across the region should continue to slowly
weaken and dissipate over the next couple of hours. A stronger
thunderstorm is ongoing in the vicinity of Grand Island,
Nebraska. The chance of this thunderstorm reaching LNK is very
low at this time. This activity is associated with an area of
low pressure centered near the region. Winds are largely out of
northwest, but are anticipated to become light and variable as
the low pressure moves east of the area and surface high
pressure fills in. Skies will clear of any lingering low-level
cumulus after sunset. Surface high pressure moves east of the
area during the morning hours on Thursday. Winds will become
southerly to southwesterly as this occurs. Wind speeds begin to
increase as our next weather system begins to approach the
region as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

347
FXUS63 KGID 152135
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
435 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing spotty showers and weak thunderstorms will dissipate
  with loss of the daytime heating this evening.

- Widespread critical fire weather expected on Thursday. A Red
  Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area for
  the afternoon through late evening hours.

- Strong northerly winds (peak gusts around 40-45 MPH) are
  likely on Friday behind a cold front.

- Friday`s cold front will bring seasonably cold air in for the
  weekend. However, with such a mild late winter/early spring
  and fast start to the growing season, will probably need to
  issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the
  season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM because of near or
  slightly-sub-freezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

It`s been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple
different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being
driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath
a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE
across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in
the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the
mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in
instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don`t
expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in
only the strongest of cores. Models haven`t really been handling
this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but
conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with
loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks
quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S.

Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is
discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy
one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees
for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry
ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach
at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F.

Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track
with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from
NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds
behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps
locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at
least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very
little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not
anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time.

Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized
convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model
consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or
well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression
Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by.
Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme
SE zones, but this could be generous.

Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold
front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery
and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions
and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday
night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both
nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn`t
overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze
isn`t until last week of April or first week of May for all but
our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early
spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3
weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of
mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention
to the cold temperatures.

The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer
weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United
States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some
mid week rain. We`ll have to see as it`s still a long ways off.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through the period. Spotty showers will
hang around off and on through mid-afternoon, but given limited
predictability and coverage, opted to just keep it VCSH attm.
Breezy N/NW winds should gradually dissipate towards early
evening, then turn to the S/SSW for the overnight. Winds will be
breezy out of the S-SW all day on Thursday - sustained around
15kt and gusts around 25kt. Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Truly appreciable rain has been hard to come by this spring,
and the near-term trends don`t look any better. As a result, and
because spring green- up has yet to fully take hold, we
continue to monitor for more fire weather concerns.

- THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Critical fire weather conditions will return in earnest as a
surface low pressure system deepens to our west and southerly
winds increase to solidly- breezy levels. Expect commonly
sustained winds around 20 MPH and gusts 30-35 MPH. Meanwhile, as
high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the
mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent -
lowest W of Hwy 281. As a result, a Red Flag Warnings has been
issued for Thursday afternoon through late evening for our
entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given
that diurnal RH improvement during the evening will be quite a
bit slower than usual.

- FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold
front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH
likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues
to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In
fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop
below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our
KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so
it`s still a day with some fire weather concerns.

- SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high
temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will
nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while
northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near-
critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area-
wide...but overall-worst in our western half.

- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from
critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat-
lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty
south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially
widespread critical conditions.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday
     night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday
     night for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Thies/Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion