Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

060
FXUS63 KOAX 151049
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
549 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
  into the evening hours (40-60%). Storms may be severe with
  large hail and damaging winds.

- Warm temperatures expected today with highs in the low to mid
  90s.

- Periodic strong to severe storm chances continue for Saturday
  through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary extending
from near Broken Bow to Neligh to just east of Sioux Falls, SD. To
our south, storms were able to fire along the nose of an H8 LLJ, but
these were largely confined into northeast KS. The best convergence
along the LLJ nose should point more towards Iowa/Missouri early
this morning, helping force elevated convection and keeping it away
from our forecast area. Temperatures remained in the low to mid 70s
for most of the forecast area with light winds.

The sfc boundary will push slowly to the southeast, eventually
stalling across portions of the forecast area by midday today.
Lingering H8 warm advection should help push high temperatures into
the low to mid 90s for most areas. While we`ll still see minimum RH
values in the upper teens to low 20% result in very high fire danger
over northeast Nebraska, the fairly weak winds of 5 to 10 mph should
limit Red Flag conditions.

As we head into the afternoon and evening hours, the H5 zonal flow
should allow a disturbance to track across portions of the Central
Plains. Moisture and instability will pool along and just ahead of
the frontal boundary, with around 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg of MLCAPE. Sfc
convergence along the front should result in the development of
showers and thunderstorms after 21z. Combined with the instability,
0-6 km bulk shear of 35 to 40 kts should favor supercell
development. Steep H7-H5 lapse rates of 8.5 deg C/km along with
long, straight hodographs should promote large hail with initial
convection, and over time upscale growth will lead to more of a
damaging wind threat. The tornado threat appears low at this time,
as forecast soundings show pretty high LCLs along with little
curvature in hodographs. With this forecast update, we remain under
a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms.

Looking at recent 00z CAM guidance, a few differences are observed,
largely with the location of the front and where convection may
develop. The HRRR ignites convection slightly farther south and east
compared to other CAM members like the NAMNest, WRF ARW, and HiRes
ARW. Have added 15 to 20% PoPs after 21z over portions of northeast
Nebraska toward the Platte River, with chances increasing to 40 to
60% after 00z for areas southeast of a line from Tekamah to Seward.
PoPs eventually push east of the area after 07z. Lows Friday night
cool to the mid 50s to low 60s.

For Saturday, expect continued warmth with high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. With the boundary lingering in the area,
should once again see instability pool near and ahead of the feature
with 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 40 kts of bulk shear.
While latest CAM guidance doesn`t seem too interested in generating
afternoon convection, should storms develop, they`d likely become
severe with large hail and strong winds, and while a tornado threat
can`t completely be ruled out, LCLs appear rather high at 2 to 3 km
along with rather poor and little if any 0-1 km bulk shear. To our
west, a midlevel wave ejecting out of the Rockies should result in
sfc cyclogenesis, with convection progged to develop primarily over
portions of the western Panhandle near the vicinity of the sfc low
and into central Nebraska. 00z guidance indicates convection
eventually growing upscale into various bowing segments, tracking
along the baroclinic zone eastward into the forecast area by the
late evening hours into early Sunday morning. So, expect more of a
damaging wind potential with this convection. A Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) remains in place for much of eastern Nebraska into western
Iowa for Saturday. PoPs during the afternoon and early evening
remain at 25 to 30% for this forecast update, increasing to 50 to
70% areawide by the late evening hours.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The H5 pattern on Sunday will feature an amplifying longwave trof
over the western CONUS. Several shortwaves are seen ejecting from
the feature from eastern Colorado toward the Central and Northern
Plains areas. Sfc cyclogenesis ensues with the low progged to track
through the area. The H8 baroclinic zone should swing northward
through the area, allowing ample south/southwesterly flow to point
into the area for much of the day and evening. Expect to see a
strong 45 to 60 kt LLJ overspread the area behind the front, along
with instability of 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg. Forecast soundings appear
to show capping eroding in the afternoon, and when combined
with the strong bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts, should see severe
convection develop over the area with all hazards on the table.
In addition, some urban flash flood potential does exist. Should
see areas have efficient rainfall processes with warm cloud
depths approaching the 3,500 to 4,000 meter mark.

For Monday, should see a similar threat as the H5 longwave is
progged to track farther east into the Plains. Similar to Sunday,
should see similar values of instability along with strong deep
layer shear of 55 to 60 kts yielding a threat for severe convection.
For this update, the threat remains shifted slightly to the east.

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the
extended with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are set through the first 12 hours of the TAF
period, only to be interrupted by showers and storms (some
strong) that will develop near to just south of the KLNK and
KOMA terminals. East-southeasterly winds will become
increasingly southeasterly over the course of the day, with
winds shifting northeasterly once storms develop and move to the
southeast. Short-term models have trended the storms to be a bit
later since last TAF issuance, with the timing of KOMA shifted
two hours later, while KLNK shifts one hour back from the
previous forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

757
FXUS63 KGID 151135
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few (potentially severe) storms will be possible Friday
  afternoon to early evening across a few locations east of
  HWY-281. The main hazards will be hail up to the side of ping
  pong balls and thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 MPH.

- Generally greater coverage of strong to severe storms will
  come both Saturday and Sunday nights. Hail up to the size of
  golf balls with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 MPH
  may be possible within the strongest storms. An isolated
  tornado or two cant be ruled out.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns may arrive for
  a southwest portion of the area Sunday given strong southerly
  winds blowing near 20-30 MPH and gusting as high as 35-45 MPH.

- Temperatures ahead of a cold frontal passage early next week
  will keep highs in the mid 80s and 90s (through Sunday) before
  temporarily dropping down to the 60s to 70s by Tuesday. A
  steady increase in highs will likely follow through the end of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Friday: Scorching hot temperatures with a few afternoon storms
(possibly severe) mainly east of Highway-281.

Storm chances will return each day this weekend across a
portion of the area as the upper-level pattern turns more
active. Beginning with a Central Plains approaching upper-level
disturbance later tonight, surface pressure will fall in advance
across much of central Kansas. A stationary front, setting up
across central Kansas and southeast Nebraska today, will serve
as the main lifting mechanism for afternoon storm development.
Southerly winds on the east side of the surface low will pump up
some moisture to much of eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska,
saturating the air mass east of the surface boundary. (low-to-
mid 50s dewpoints). As a result, the best ingredients for severe
thunderstorm development will be concentrated across the
eastern half of the area (up to 1,000-1,5000J/kg of CAPE &
30-40kts of Bulk Shear).

The best time frame for storm initiation along this boundary
will occur between 5-8PM with storms quickly bubbling up along
the stationary front as it meanders eastward during the rest of
the afternoon and evening. As a result, the best potential for
storms will fall across areas near and east of Highway-281. The
probability of precipitation decreases sharply west of HWY-281.
A slight risk of severe weather lies across an eastern portion
of the area today (east of a line from Columbus to Aurora in
Nebraska and down to Osborne in Kansas.) with a Marginal risk in
place across the rest of our forecast area. The primary severe
weather hazard this afternoon/evening will be large hail up to
the size of ping pong balls and thunderstorm wind gusts up to
near 60 MPH. Though a brief and more isolated tornado cant be
completely ruled out of the window of uncertainty, the low-level
shear environment appears to be more on the lower end of the
spectrum (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion