Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

552
FXUS63 KOAX 250544
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at
  times tonight through Friday. The best chance of rain is over
  southeast Nebraska

- Expect very hot and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday as
  highs reach into the 90s to low 100s each day and heat index
  values approaching 105.

- Hot and humid conditions are likely to last into next week.
  Evening to overnight thunderstorms may be possible during this
  time as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A shortwave trough is currently pushing southeast from the
northern Plains to the Great Lakes. This has led to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the high plains to the west of
our area. Further to the east, showers and thunderstorms have
begun to push into the area late this evening. The best rain
chances are anticipated over southeast Nebraska with a few
showers further north as we head through the overnight hours.
With rain and clouds in the forecast tonight, temperatures
remain mild through Thursday morning, only falling into the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday into Friday sees a largely stalled front from the
aforementioned trough draped across the southern Plains up into
the Midwest. Meanwhile, surface high pressure sets up to our
north. This results in cooler temperatures on Thursday ranging
from the low to mid 70s. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but with greatest forcing
to our south and surface high pressure sitting to our north,
coverage may be limited. Overall, rain chances are low (20-40%
chance) for most of the area with slightly higher rain chances
(50-70%) across far southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa.
Temperatures remain mild with continued rain chances Thursday
night into Friday morning with more upper 50s and low 60s.
Showers and thunderstorms begin to push east of the region by
Friday evening as temperatures warm slightly into the upper 70s.

A pattern shift arrives this weekend as mid- to upper-level
ridging takes hold across the central and eastern CONUS. The
heat holds off on Saturday with 80s currently expected, but the
same can not be said on Sunday. Hot and humid weather
overspreads the region by Sunday afternoon and this pattern
should largely hold into at least early next week. Temperatures
push well into 90s with dewpoints hovering in the upper 60s to
low 70s. This combination results in heat indices in the low
100s for most of the area, likely approaching 105 for some.
These temperatures will be closely monitored for potential heat
products in future forecasts. Heading into next week, the worst
of the heat subsides, but this only shaves a few degrees off
our temperatures. The more substantial change will be the return
of thunderstorm chances. As troughs round the periphery of the
ridge, evening and overnight thunderstorm systems may develop to
our west and push through portions of the area. It is too early
to say how widespread these thunderstorms may be or if severe
weather will be possible, but as a reminder severe weather
season is not over just yet, so remain weather aware.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with ceilings
generally around 5000-8000 ft. Winds will be out of the
northwest to north to start the period, but will become
northeasterly to easterly during the day Thursday, with speeds
generally remaining under 10 kts. The main thing to watch will
be shower and isolated storm potential throughout the period.
LNK will likely see a few showers to start the period, though
not expecting much impact outside of some brief wind shifts.
Some guidance suggests additional development around 14-15Z and
lingering through much of the rest of the period. Highest
chances for impacts look to remain south of the TAF sites with
several models suggesting most areas stay dry, but can`t
completely rule out some brief periods of TS and visibility
reductions. For now, left out any mention, but trends will need
to be monitored.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

045
FXUS63 KGID 250616
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
116 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered, off and on thunderstorms will impact the area
  tonight, as well as throughout the day and night on Thursday.

- A spotty stronger storm could yet occur early this morning
  mainly in our KS counties, but any "true" severe threat should
  soon wane.

- Cloud cover and scattered showers/weak thunderstorms will
  keep Thursday well below (nearly 20 degrees) normal for the
  end of June.

- An overall-drier AND warmer regime arrives especially
  Saturday-Monday, with high temps up into the upper 80s-mid 90s
  range. Although certainly nothing unusual for late-June (and
  also short of Heat Advisory criteria), this will really feel
  like a big change given the decent stretch of recent/upcoming
  coolness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The Central Plains sits under weakly tilted northwesterly flow,
that will become more zonal over time. This will cause the
remainder of the work week to be active with scattered showers
and thunderstorms persisting off and on throughout. Activity
will begin to ramp up this evening, peaking during the day
Thursday and tapering off overnight Thursday into Friday
morning. The instability is better off to the west, which will
keep the strongest storms away from the area.

As of this AFD issuance, there is a persistent thunderstorm
moving southeast across the sandhills of Nebraska. High-
resolution internal Ensemble WoFS shows this thunderstorm
tracking south and east towards Grand Island and further
southeast. This thunderstorm is really riding the instability
gradient southeast and generally has about 500-1000 J/Kg to work
with, meanwhile shear is plentiful.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase into the
overnight hours, which is supported by a variety of model
solutions and it will persist in an off and on nature. Due to
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, expect
temperatures to be cool - highs in the 60s to low 70s...which is
about 20 degrees below normal for the end of June.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the area during the
day Friday.

Moving into the weekend, a trough begins to dig in to the
Pacific Northwest and the upper level pattern for the Central
Plains switches to southwesterly as ridging builds into the Ohio
valley by early next week. This pattern change will cause winds
to become southerly and breezy at times, and for moisture
transport to increase. Temperatures will warm back into the
summer like temperatures with highs in the 90s expected for the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
The majority of the period is currently expected to feature VFR
ceiling/visibility, and rain/thunderstorm-free conditions.
However, intermittent showers/weak thunderstorms remain possible
especially through around sunrise (cannot be ruled out during
the day into Thursday evening, but lower probability). Outside
of any thunderstorm-enhanced winds, surface winds will be
relatively tame, with sustained speeds the vast majority of the
period under 12KT, although some more consistent gusts to 15+KT
are possible especially this afternoon-early evening.

- More details:
- Ceiling/visibility:
Occasional ceiling/visibility to at least MVFR levels cannot be
ruled out, and admittedly confidence in ceiling category is
running below-average, with various higher-res models insisting
on MVFR through the majority of the period, while "older school"
numerical guidance (GFS LAMP) keeps ceiling no lower than low-
end VFR through at least the vast majority of the period. Based
on model ceiling performance over the last 24+ hours, have
leaned TAFs toward the latter/more optimistic side of things,
with much of the period maintaining a mention of scattered sub-
VFR clouds, but keeping any ceiling no lower than 3,500 ft. AGL.
The only exception is late in the period Thursday
evening...when felt a bit higher potential for at least high-end
MVFR ceiling existed. In summary: Feel VFR should prevail much
of the time, but at least occasional MVFR is very possible.

- Rain/thunderstorm potential:
While any chance for organized/strong thunderstorms has passed,
at least spotty/weak convection remains possible especially
through around sunrise, and as a result have PROB30 for -TSRA
through 12Z. For the daytime and evening hours, considered
adding more PROB30 groups, but latest/typically-most-reliable
higher-res models keep suggesting that the vast majority of
activity should focus at least a few counties away from
KGRI/KEAR in various directions. As a result, will acknowledge
here that spotty showers/weak storms cannot be ruled out, but
probability is just too low at this time to justify even PROB30.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion