Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

101
FXUS63 KOAX 230102
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme to very high fire danger is still on track through the
  early evening.

- Dreary conditions move in overnight, with some drizzle
  possible early.

- Strong to severe storms are still on track to develop Thursday
  afternoon and evening (15% severe chance for any given storm),
  with the greatest risk from 2 PM to 8 PM.

- Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances
  for showers Saturday (30%) into Sunday (80%).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The Red Flag Warning for northeast Nebraska has been allowed to
expire. Increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of our next
weather system is greatly limiting fire danger. Relative
humidity has climbed above 40 percent across the region with
further increases overnight. Strong south winds will continue
though.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad trough pushing
further eastward across the western third of the CONUS, with a band
of ascent draped across the Southern to Northern High Plains. Low
stratus that surged northward across the area this morning has since
eroded, as daytime mixing has kicked off. A potent low-level thermal
ridge has developed in anticipation of the aforementioned trough,
increasing wind speeds over the local area that we`ve mixed into
despite maintaining a relatively shallow boundary layer. Gusts are
expected to peak this afternoon in the 30-40 mph range, with warmer
temperatures driving relative humidity values below 30%. The
combination of the strong winds and lower relative humidity values
is leading to extreme fire danger across northeast Nebraska into
South Dakota, with a Red Flag Warning in place through 8 PM this
evening. At that point, winds will continue into the overnight hours
while temperatures cool to allow humidity values to rebound.
Overnight, that area of warm air advection/forcing for ascent will
shift eastward, filling in the area with cloud cover late this
evening into the overnight hours. Some light showers or areas of
drizzle will be possible, but won`t amount to much while
temperatures bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The main concern of the short-term forecast arrives tomorrow at
noon, where a Pacific Front will provide a focus for ascent
associated with the larger trough to the west. To the east of the
front, we`ll keep low clouds through the morning and early
afternoon, potentially lulling people into a false sense of security
that storms may not happen. Over time, the capping inversion that
was strengthened by warm air advection overnight will weaken,
allowing storms to form along the front as it slowly pushes across
the area. Plenty of shear and instability will be in place for
strong to severe storms to occur, with the devil being in the
details as to what that may look like. A large component of the
deeper-shear vector in forecast profiles are in line with the
initiating boundary, making multicellular clusters the likely storm
mode, where the is some initial room for isolated cells that
struggle initially with the dry air above 700 mb. Profiles favor
large hail and marginally severe wind with the strongest storms, and
possibly a tornado or two.

In terms of uncertainty and timing, one the first things to mention
is the placement of the front during the afternoon, namely the two
camps of model solutions. The most likely scenario places the front
along a line from Fairbury to Onawa, while the other camp (comprised
of largely experimental models like the MPAS) has it 2-3 counties to
the west. Shifting to timing, the widespread cloud cover may make it
hard to see initial storms struggling with the cap. By 17z that
inversion will be weakening, and the initial updrafts will generally
be weaker due to entrainment. Stronger storm initiation should occur
somewhere between 2-4 PM, and would be in close proximity or just
west of the Lincoln and Omaha/Council Bluffs Metro areas as they
form. Once they get a head of steam, they should grow upscale and
move across the eastern half of the forecast area, clearing it by 7-
8 PM. Overall rainfall amounts will be dependent on where the
storms initially form, but it looks again that areas that
desperately need rainfall (particularly northeast Nebraska) may
miss out on meaningful rainfall. Behind the front, very dry air
will fall into place and will increase fire danger to be very
high where rain does not fall.

Friday and Beyond:

With the Thursday`s remaining storms having pushed off to the
southeast, the weather pattern for Friday and Saturday will be
shaped by the lingering cutoff low centered over Saskatchewan
Manitoba. Squat mid/upper flow will turn from westerly to
southwesterly flow heading into the weekend, with another arm
shedding off and moving southeastward from the main low, helping to
force lighter rain chances that move into the area Saturday. Highs
will dip from upper 60s to near 70 degrees Friday into the low-to-
mid 60s with several wind shifts occurring. Sunday into Monday,
a negatively-tilting shortwave will kick out across the Central
and Northern Plains. Widespread rain/storm chances are
anticipated over the course of the two days, with the initial
wave currently timing out for increased severe storm potential
Sunday afternoon, especially for southeast Nebraska. Once that
system kicks off to the east, we`ll be dealing with zonal flow
and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s
through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions and strong south winds gusting to between 30 and
35 kts continue this evening. As our next weather system
approaches, decreasing ceilings overspread the area. MVFR
ceilings expand from southwest to northeast between 05Z and 08Z.
The strong south winds are expected to continue with little
reduction in speeds or gusts. There is a low (15 to 30% chance)
of showers and thunderstorms between approximately 06Z and 12Z
for all terminals. Additional aviation impacts would be short-
lived with this activity if it does occur. At this time,
uncertainty on the amount of coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the area precludes inclusion in the TAF.
IFR ceilings are anticipated at OMA during the morning hours
between 14Z and 17Z. LNK may develop IFR ceilings also, but
confidence is low at this time. IFR ceilings may end up holding
to the east of LNK. A quick increase to MVFR and eventually VFR
ceilings arrives by the afternoon from west to east across the
area with an approaching front. This front is expected to cause
the development of showers and thunderstorms later in the
afternoon and evening, but this is towards the end of this TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Chehak
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

127
FXUS63 KGID 222339
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Into this evening: The combination of strong south winds
  (gusts 35-45 MPH), along with relative humidity (RH) as low as
  25-35 percent, will continue to drive near-critical to
  critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning
  remains in effect until 8 PM for Nebraska counties mainly
  along and northwest of a Beaver City-Kearney-Fullerton line,
  where RH is overall-lowest.

- This evening (prior to midnight): there is a small chance that
  a thunderstorm or two could try brushing into the extreme
  western fringes of our forecast area...mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas
  counties...although it is more likely that any storms remain
  entirely west of this area.

- Very late overnight-early Thurs AM: there is a slightly
  better chance that isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms
  could develop into more of our area, but mainly favoring
  Nebraska counties along and north of Interstate 80. This
  activity seems unlikely to be severe.

- Thursday fire weather: from mid-morning through early
  evening, near- critical to critical fire weather conditions
  will develop across much of our area. The highest potential
  for critical fire weather conditions will reside within
  counties along and west of a line from Greeley to Grand Island
  Nebraska, to Phillipsburg Kansas...where a Red Flag Warning
  will be in effect from 10 AM until 8 PM.

- Thursday thunderstorm potential: Although it now appears that
  the vast majority of any severe thunderstorm threat during the
  afternoon and evening should focus slightly east and southeast
  of our forecast area altogether, our far eastern and
  southeastern counties remain under at least a Marginal Risk
  for severe storms at this time, just in case storms happen to
  develop farther west over our area (chances have REALLY
  decreased versus 24 hours ago).

- Friday night-Sunday night: various/intermittent chances for
  much-needed rain and thunderstorms. Storms should mostly be
  sub-severe, but cannot rule out limited severe potential
  mainly Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday (10 AM-8
 PM) for roughly the northwest half of our CWA. This MIGHT
  actually be our last critical fire weather concern for several
  days, which would be welcomed! Please refer to separate Fire
  Weather section below for all further discussion on this
  topic.

- Decreasing severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday afternoon-
  evening: What a change 24 hours has made! Yesterday, various
  forecast models slowed down the passage of Thursday`s cold
  front/dryline...seemingly bringing at least the eastern one-
  third to perhaps one-half of our CWA "under the gun" for a
  severe storm threat during the afternoon-evening. However,
  overnight model runs (and continuing into today) have abruptly
  sped up this front again...in turn firing up any severe storms
  at least SLIGHTLY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. Out of
  an abundance of caution, SPC has for now maintained an
  official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for a few of our far east-
  southeast counties on their latest Day 2 outlook, but they did
  shift the western edges of their Marginal Risk (level 1) to
  the east of Hwy 281. IN SUMMARY: barring a surprising "last
  minute" shift back west (unlikely but cannot totally rule it
  out just yet), the threat for severe storms in our CWA on
  Thursday appears to have diminished quite a bit versus 24
  hours ago.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. April 29):
-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Overall, today has turned out very much as expected: Windy
(southerly gusts 30-40 MPH with spotty 45 MPH) and warm, with
highs on track to top out mainly 80-86 degrees. It`s also
remained rain/storm-free.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm the onset of a more
active weather pattern these next several days, as we are under
increasing southwesterly flow aloft...downstream from a potent
shortwave trough/closed low currently churning through the
Northern Rockies. Down at the surface, the pressure gradient has
really tightened up across our Central Plains region today,
driven by a strong (roughly 990 millibar) low pressure center
over eastern MT, which has in turn kicked up our stout southerly
winds.


- THIS EVENING (mainly pre-midnight):
The vast majority of our CWA will surely remain dry and
continued windy/breezy out of the south (gusts at least 25-35
MPH even after dark), as a surface trough/weak cold front slowly
approaches our area from the west-northwest. Technically, the
EXTREME western fringes of our CWA (mainly western
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) remain under a Marginal Risk for a rogue
severe storm via the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, and we are
carrying some low-end chances/PoPs to cover this possibility.
However, high-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) strongly suggest that
the vast majority of this activity should remain at least 25-50
miles west of our CWA altogether...with storms tracking more
north than east. That being said, we will have to keep an eye on
our western fringes...just in case a non-zero thunderstorm
threat does materialize.

- LATE OVERNIGHT (post midnight):
As the early morning hours go by, the surface cold front will
gradually invade our CWA from west-to-east...reaching roughly
halfway through by sunrise. Ahead of this boundary, southerly
winds will remain breezy but gradually diminish in speed, while
behind the boundary breezes will switch to out of the northwest.

As for rain/thunderstorm chances, odds still favor MOST areas
staying dry. That being said, some fairly weak elevated
instability (rooted mainly above 800 millibars) could spark some
isolated/scattered showers and possibly some weak thunderstorms.
These could occur almost anywhere in our CWA, but appear to
MOSTLY favor counties along/north of I-80. That being said,
chances are currently no higher than 20-40%.

As for low temps, they will hold up well into the upper 50s-low
60s most places (aided in part by a large mass of low clouds
expected to overspread most of our CWA), with some cooler low-
mid 50s sneaking into only our far west-northwest counties
around/just after sunrise as drier air moves in there first.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
As already highlighted above, the faster passage of the frontal
boundary/dryline represent a fairly big change versus
expectations from 24 hours ago.

The morning starts with lingering low-level clouds mainly over
the eastern 1/3 of our CWA, while mid-high level clouds linger
central/west. There MIGHT be a few lingering showers/weak storms
over our eastern counties in the morning-early afternoon as
well, but these appear to be far from "soaking rains". Out of
caution as much as anything (and in line with SPC Day 2
Outlook), we linger some small thunderstorm chances into our
far east-southeast counties during the late afternoon-early
evening, but latest HRRR/NAMNest focus most all severe potential
now 25-50 miles east-southeast of our CWA altogether.

In other departments: The post-frontal west-northwesterly
breezes will take over our entire area, generally sustained
10-20 MPH/gusting 15-30 MPH (highest west/weakest east). High
temps were changed very little, ranging mid-upper 70s north/west
to low 80s south/southeast.


- THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Any thunderstorm chances that might have existed quickly wane,
with skies becoming mostly clear in the wake of the passing
upper disturbance. Northerly breezes will average at least 5-10
MPH, which will keep temps from "tanking" too far, but still
lows will be quite a bit cooler than tonight...aimed from mid-
upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s southeast (very low chance
for a little frost far northwest around Ord?...not currently in
official forecast).


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
The vast majority of the day-early evening looks dry as breezes
shift from northerly to more easterly. High temps aimed 60s
north to low-70s south. However, already by early evening and
especially overnight, some low-end rain/weak thunderstorm
chances arrive from the west...mainly targeting our northern
counties per latest model data.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
While not a non-stop rain situation by ANY means, this will be
an overall-active few days as another large-scale shortwave
trough gradually approaches/invades our region from the west-
southwest. Although rain chances/PoPs are at least no higher
than 50% for Saturday, they still might be overdone. However,
more widespread and higher-confidence chances arrive Sunday-
Sunday night with the main wave...during which time much of our
area COULD pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain. Although far too
early to pinpoint details, at least our southern counties MAY
need monitored for a strong to severe storm threat mainly
Sunday...although this would appear to mainly be an elevated
storm threat (meaning mainly hail). High temps both days aimed
mainly 60s, with lows mainly upper 30s-40s.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Various, intermittent chances for rain shower and mainly weak
thunderstorms continue, as our flow aloft remains quasi-zonal
(west-east) before turning more southwesterly mid-week.
Temperatures continue to lean at least slightly toward the
cooler side (especially compared to lately), with highs aimed
mainly upper 50s-upper 60s...and lows mainly mid 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few high-level clouds have recently moved in overtop of the
area. Later tonight (around 4-6z), a deck of low-level stratus
is expected to sweep by ahead of a passing cold front. These
clouds will likely (60-75% confidence) have bases near 2,000ft,
bringing MVFR ceilings to both terminal sites (around a 25%
chance of IFR ceilings). MVFR conditions will look to stick
around through 9-13z, first clearing out of KEAR ahead of KGRI.
A few thunderstorms may additionally appear in the vicinity of
the terminal sites between 8-12z. At this time, confidence does
not warrant a mention outside of a PROB30 group. Broken to
scattered non-MVFR skies should carry out through the remainder
of the period.

As far as winds go, breezy southerly winds currently in place
will be slow to lighten tonight until the cold front nears the
area Thursday morning. Gusts are expected to maintain between
30-40kts through the rest of the night. The frontal passage
between 10-14z will steer wind directions from the south to the
northwest. Winds, though lighter than tonight, will still be
possible to gust as high as 20-25kts through Thursday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING:
Despite dewpoints/relative humidity (RH) technically running
higher than our "usual" critical criteria (mainly dropping no
lower than 25-35 percent), this RH is deemed "low
enough"...given the presence of strong south winds gusting as
high as 35-45 MPH along with long-standing dryness...to justify
the continuation of a Red Flag Warning through 8 PM for roughly
the northwestern 1/3rd of our forecast area (CWA). Although
moderately-strong south winds will continue beyond 8 PM, RH will
steadily recover upward later this evening...climbing back to
60+% by 10-11 PM.

- THURSDAY:
One final round of critical fire weather concerns (perhaps our
last for several days?) arrives Thursday, as although it will
not be as windy as today (northwest winds gusting up to around
25-30 MPH), RH will be considerably lower...bottoming out 10-15%
within all but our far eastern-southeastern CWA. As a result, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of our Nebraska
counties along/west of Highway 281...along with Phillips County
KS...valid 10 AM-8 PM. Please note this is an earlier-than-usual
"start time" due to the very dry air causing RH to fall quickly
post-sunrise. The main limiting factor as to why this Warning
does not extend farther east-southeast at this time, is that
winds are currently expected to consistently fall short of
gusting 25+ MPH, but this will need closely monitored in later
forecasts in case eastward expansion becomes more warranted.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ039-
     040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion