Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

802
FXUS63 KOAX 141124
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  with upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, and mid 60s to
  low 70s by Tuesday.

- Rain returns late tonight into Saturday, mainly along and
  south of I-80, with the highest chances (40-70%) near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- An active weather pattern arrives by the middle of next week.
  Periodic precipitation chances with cooler, yet still above
  normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight and Saturday

Cloud cover continues to increase as a low pressure system continues
developing over the southern Great Plains with the associated
precipitation shield lifting north towards the area. Rain showers
will overspread the area after midnight and these showers continue
through Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will largely be confined to
areas along and south of Interstate 80. The best chances (40-70%) of
rain will be focused near the Kansas and Nebraska border. These
areas may receive a tenth or two of rainfall throughout the day.
Elsewhere that sees rain will be lucky to receive a few hundredths of
an inch. In the areas expecting rainfall, temperatures will be
limited to the upper 50s. Areas that remain dry should climb into
the lower 60s under filtered sunshine.

Sunday through Tuesday

A warming trend takes over behind Saturday`s system. Temperatures
climb into the mid 60s for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the
lower 70s are not out of the question by Tuesday ahead of our next
system. It should remain dry during this period, with passing cloud
cover, and gusty winds at times.

Wednesday and Beyond

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a leading shortwave trough lift and pass
north of the region, providing only a glancing chance of rain for
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Temperatures cool slightly
back into the 60s with the limited influence of this system. The
main trough arrives sometime late next week. Forecast model guidance
remains uncertain on the exact timing, location, and strength of
this system. This will influence the exact details a bit during this
period late in the forecast. That being said, the general trend will
be cooler temperatures, though remaining above normal, and
precipitation chances. At this time, rain is expected initially with
a potential change to a rain/snow mix or snow late in the forecast
as colder temperatures move in. This will continue to be monitored
as confidence increases in later forecasts. Stay tuned for details!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions this morning with cigs around FL110 at the
terminals. Lower clouds and rain are starting to push into
southeast Nebraska and will likely move into KLNK by around 15Z.
Latest guidance shows a shorter period of MVFR cigs at KLNK,
now clearing around 19Z, though rain chances hold through 22Z.
Still a 30% chance MVFR cigs don`t make it as far north as KLNK.
Expect VFR conditions to hold at KOMA, though there is a 20%
chance MVFR cigs and rain push north into the terminal around
15-19Z. KOFK will stay north of any low cigs and rain. Winds
will be predominantly out of the east or southeast through the
day today, becoming more light and variable this evening. May
see them transition to generally a west or northwesterly
direction.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

230
FXUS63 KGID 141137
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of rain showers today, particularly along and south of
  I-80. O.25 to 0.50" of rain are most favored along and south
  of the KS/NE state line, with trace to 0.25" amounts expected
  elsewhere.

- Dry conditions return tonight, but patchy areas of fog may
  develop in areas that see the most rain by Sunday AM.

- Main story for Sunday afternoon through the middle of next
  week will be unseasonably warm temperatures. Unfortunately,
  the warmth will come with some fire weather concerns -
  particularly Sunday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- Somewhat cooler and potentially at least slightly more active
  weather returns for the second half of next week - but
  confidence on details are low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

No significant changes to the forecast for today as areas of
rain have begun to overspread roughly the southern half of the
area over the last several hours. Still expect the most steady
of rain, and highest rain amounts, to fall along and south of
the KS/NE state line - where latest ensemble guidance indicates
>90% chances for at least a tenth of an inch...but only 10-20%
chances for amounts >0.50". If anything, models have come into a
bit better agreement that the northern edge of appreciable
rain amounts (say from a few hundredths to around a tenth) will
be between Hwy 6 and I-80. Probabilities for >0.10" rapidly
fall off N of the I-80 corridor. Coverage will be most abundant
through around midday, then gradually decrease from NW to SE
during the afternoon and evening. Still can`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder in our KS counties this morning, but not
enough confidence in occurrence or coverage to include in
something like the HWO.

A small forecast change for late tonight into Sunday morning was
to add some patchy fog - mainly for areas along/S of the state
line - where the "heaviest" rain will fall today. Not sure how
much the recent rain will really contribute to low level
moisture given how dry it`s been (ground should really be able
to soak the slow/steady rain up today)...but clearing skies,
light winds, and easily attainable cross-over temperatures could
allow for at least patchy fog through mid-morning Sunday...as
indicated on some of the recent hi-res guidance.

The rest of Sunday will be very/unseasonably warm and gradually
more breezy. This will bring fire weather concerns back into the
picture for the afternoon hours. The greatest overlap of breezy
conditions (gusts 20-25 MPH) and low humidity (20-25%) will be
along and W/NW of a line from Arapahoe to Ord. May eventually
need a few counties in a fire headline - but the greatest
concern will be just W/NW of the area from SW Nebraska into the
Sandhills.

Tuesday is another fire weather day of concern and continues to
look like the warmest day of the forecast. See below for
additional details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Currently...

Outside of a few scattered sprinkles sliding through southern
portions of the forecast area early this morning, been another
overall quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data
continue to show zonal flow in place across the region. Broad
ridging extends north through the Plains, set up between
troughing along the East Coast and a low pressure system
working its way into the Desert SW. Satellite imagery showing
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies currently, with increasing
mid-upper level cloud cover inching its way closer toward the
forecast area...a trend that will continue the rest of today. At
the surface, we`re sitting between high pressure over the
Midwest and SErn CONUS and weak troughing along the High Plains.
This has brought us SSWrly winds...and similar to yesterday,
while most speeds will top out around 10-15 MPH, some gusts
closer to 20 will be possible through the afternoon hours. Not
looking at any surprises as far as temperatures with generally
low 60s expected.

This evening through Saturday...

Overall, there hasn`t been any significant changes in models
today regarding the incoming precipitation chances...which
remain liquid through entire event. The upper level
troughing/low moving into the Desert SW this afternoon will
continue its eastward trek through Saturday, with models in
pretty good agreement showing the center of the 500mb low
tracking along/just south of the OK/TX border. This will keep
the bulk of heavier precipitation well to our south across the
Srn Plains, but the main trough axis will be passing through the
area, and models show the potential for a sharper/better swath
of forcing tied closer to 700mb...driving our chances. Main
question has been and still remains with just how far north more
than a trace or few hundredths can get...agreement is still
good that the better potential for 0.1 in or more lies closer
to/south of the NE/KS state line. At the surface, the main low
is also tracking well south of the forecast area, meaning winds
will gradually turn more easterly- northerly with time...which
can impact the northward extent of precipitation. Most models
show overall not a lot going on through the evening hours...the
better chances ramp up after midnight tonight, and especially
closer to the 09-12Z. Those better chances look to continue
roughly into midday-early afternoon, with things tapering off
from west-east through the rest of the afternoon. Have some 20
percent chances lingering in the far SE into early evening, but
several models have things dry by 00Z.

Not a ton of change with forecast rainfall totals for the
event...with amounts around the 0.10-0.2 range along the state
line, amounts in the 0.2-0.5 range across north central KS.
Think that across our KS counties, most totals end up closer to
that 0.2 number than 0.5...ensemble probabilities of 0.5 in or
more are still mainly only in that 10-30 percent range. The NAM
and ECMWF are on the more generous side with at least 0.01
in...EC ensemble has probabilities over 60 percent as far north
as along I-80 (GFS ensemble is further south).

Confidence in high temperatures on Saturday remains on the low
side...how the precipitation actually ends up evolving will play
a large role. Expecting plenty of cloud cover across central
and SE areas...but there will be the potential for some sun in
the NW as the afternoon passes, allowing for some warming.
Forecast highs range from the low 50s in the SE to near 60 in
the NW.

Sunday and on...

Overall quiet conditions return to the forecast for the start of
the new week, with models in good agreement showing broad
upper level ridging moving in behind this Sat. system. Through
the day on Sunday, winds turn back to the SSW, as the area is
once again set up between departing sfc high pressure to the SE
and a deepening trough axis over the High Plains...winds on
Monday are a little more uncertain with models showing the
potential for a weak boundary to move in. With a lack of colder
air accompanying that Sat. system, forecast highs both Sunday
and Monday bounce back into the low-mid 60s.

Tuesday is currently forecast to be the overall warmest day of
the week, with highs near 70 to lower 70s across
central/southern portions of the forecast area. It also has the
potential to be a breezy/windy day...and fire weather is a
concern. In the upper levels, models showing larger, broader
troughing taking over the western CONUS, with the potential for
a shortwave disturbance to swing NE out of the central Rockies
into the Dakotas. Ahead of this wave, sfc low pressure deepens
over the Nrn/Central High Plains...with a frontal boundary
swinging through during the day. We`ll see how models trend with
these features and the timing, but current forecast has gusty
SSW developing by midday, switching to the west through the
afternoon. Dewpoints dropping into the 20s-low 30s and current
forecast highs results in relative humidities dropping below 30
percent basically west of HWY 281, and near/below 20 percent
west of HWY 183. Potential for near-critical/critical fire
weather conditions...so did insert a mention into the HWO.
Forecast has some low end precipitation chances (20 percent)
mainly Tue evening/night as that shortwave swings
through...focused across the northern half of the forecast area.

Zonal upper level flow returns to the region for the latter half
of the week...potential remains for a couple of shortwave
disturbances to pass through the region, bringing addition
precip chances...but confidence in any of those details is low,
so the chances remain low. Even though one boundary pushes
through Tuesday...not a great push of colder air, so highs on
Wednesday remain in the 60s. A reinforcing front looks to push
through Thursday, ushering in colder air and another push of
gusty winds, this time out of the NW. Highs for Thursday and
Friday fall back more into the 40s-50s, still above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with some
MVFR CIGS possible off and on this morning in areas of light
rain.

Rain has steadily been filling in on the radar over the past few
hours and it appears both terminals will be on the northern edge
of the more widespread/steady showers for much of the morning
hours. Still think conditions will remain primarily VFR today
with cloud bases around 4-6K ft. However, still a chance
(~40-50%) that CIGs could lower to MVFR conditions off and on
for a few hours - particularly in the 14Z-18Z time frame. Rain
showers will gradually decrease this afternoon, and clouds will
depart this evening. Will need to watch for some patchy fog
development towards dawn Sunday AM, but not enough confidence to
include at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely on Sun.

Winds will generally be light through the period...at less than
12 KTS...predominantly ENE to NNE today, then variable
overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion