Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

645
FXUS63 KOAX 201717
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring periods of very
  high to potentially extreme fire danger this afternoon through
  Thursday across northeast Nebraska.

- Our next weather system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.
  Showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the area.
  There is a low (15%) chance of severe storms for portions of
  area Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Today through Wednesday...

Temperatures dipped into the upper 30s and low 40s overnight, with a
few locations dipping closer to 30 across far northeast Nebraska
early this morning. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and
southwesterly winds became gusty, reaching speeds of 15 to 25 mph by
noon today. Drier air will continue to edge in from the west this
afternoon, dropping RH to 20 to 30 percent. The combination of warm
temperatures, breezy winds, and dry conditions will lead to areas of
Very High fire danger with a few pockets of Extreme fire danger,
mainly across northeast Nebraska.

An upper ridge will continue to edge eastward, into the Central
Plains, through the first half of the week, allowing temperatures to
continue to climb through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Nighttime lows
only fall to the mid 40s and 50s tonight/Tuesday morning, squashing
any fears of frost/freeze. Highs Tuesday are expected to reach the
low to mid 80s. A surface high will nudge into the region on
Tuesday, sufficiently weakening winds and limiting Fire Weather
concerns.

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next approaching low
will drive an increase in winds for Wednesday. Currently expecting
speeds of 15-25 with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph. Minimum relative
humidities will drop to 20 to 30 percent across northeast Nebraska.
Expect the combination of continued dry conditions, highs in the 80s
and breezy winds will yield another round of Very High to Extreme
fire danger.

Thursday and Beyond...

Guidance remains consistent in pushing a strong trough and surface
front through the Plains mid to late-week. Although exact details,
including timing, remain uncertain, this system will likely bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms within the warm and moist
airmass ahead of the front. Machine learning models currently hint
at a chance for a few strong to severe storms in or near the
forecast late Wednesday (to our west) and Thursday (to the east),
with SPC also highlighting a 15% risk across the southeastern half
of the forecast area.

Additionally, strong winds and dry air behind the front could
lead to another day of increased fire danger, especially across
portions of northeast Nebraska.

Expect another brief cool-down behind this system as we head into
the weekend. Temperatures will likely rebound once again, the
following week. Expect several chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period, as an active
pattern becomes established over the Central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. South winds
will remain breezy this afternoon, with speeds up to 12 to 20
kts and occasional gusts as high as 20 to 30 kt. LLWS will be
possible at all three TAF sites between 04Z to 12Z. Winds will
decrease to 12 kts or less shortly after 10Z, but become gusty
once again late in the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

245
FXUS63 KGID 201733
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect 12-9pm today due to the combination
  of southerly winds gusting 20-30mph and low afternoon relative
  humidity.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through Thursday with
  highs in the upper 70s to low 90s.

- Near-Critical to Critical fire weather conditions are possible
  across portions of the area Wednesday-Friday.

- Low chance (15-25%) for precipitation arrives Wednesday night
  (west of Highway 183) and Thursday afternoon/evening (Highway
  81 and east).

- Cooler weather arrives Friday behind a cold front, with
  additional chances for precipitation (20-45%) this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Skies are clear across the area this morning. Where winds remain
elevated (gusting 20mph) temperatures are still in the 40s,
with temperatures dropping into the 30s where winds are lighter.
Aloft northwesterly flow sits over the area with a ridge over
the western Rockies and troughing over the eastern U.S.
Southerly flow at the surface develops over the area today ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs today will climb into
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Breezy southerly winds gusting
20-30mph are expected today across the area. Low afternoon
relative humidity values (10-20%) combined with the breezy winds
will result in widespread near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions across the area. In collaboration with
neighbors, a Red Flag Warning was issued from 12pm to 9pm for
the entire area. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s

Warmth continues on Tuesday as ridging builds over the area. Highs
will soar into the 80s and low 90s, warmest across southwestern
portions of the area. Light winds and sunny skies make for an
overall warm but pleasant day. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
80s. Gusty southerly winds are expected across the area on
Wednesday, with gusts of 35-45mph. The gusty winds could result
in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions (see Fire
Weather section for more details).

A trough moves into the Plains Wednesday evening-night, with scattered
thunderstorm development possible along a dryline in western
Nebraska. These storms could move into far western portions of
the area Wednesday night, though the best chances remain west of
the area. Additional chances for precipitation arrive Thursday
afternoon along the cold front/dryline but this looks to be
limited to far eastern portions of the area (Highway 81 and
east).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain
above 12kt feet. Gusty SSW winds will remain possible this
afternoon-early evening...gusts near 25-30 MPH are not out of
the question. The overnight hours will keep the chances for
gusts near 20-25 MPH around, with no notable change in wind
direction expected. Models continue to show the potential for
LLWS at both sites, with those winds aloft looking to turn more
westerly after midnight. After sunrise Tuesday, a surface
frontal boundary sinking south into the terminal areas will
bring the potential for more variable, but lighter
winds...confidence in direction from 12-18Z is not high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Highs today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the
area. This will result in afternoon relative humidity values
dropping to 20% or less, driest along/west of Highway 183. As
the atmosphere mixes this afternoon, southerly winds gusting
20-30mph are possible across the area. There remains some
uncertainty on whether or not the area will reach true critical
conditions with gusts over 25mph, but at least widespread near-
critical conditions are expected. Given dry fuels, low humidity
and winds near critical criteria, a Red Flag Warning was issued
for the entire area 12-9pm.

Warm weather continues on Tuesday, with highs in the 80s to low
90s. Increasing moisture advection keeps relative humidity
values at or above 25% across southeastern portions of the area
(southeast of the Tri-Cities). The lowest dewpoints look to be
along and northwest of the Tri-Cities at 10-20%. Winds will be
lighter on Tuesday across most of the area, with gusts below
20mph. The strongest winds (gusts 20-25mph) look to be
along/southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. With
the strongest winds expected to overlap with the highest RH,
fire weather concerns are low on Tuesday.

Moisture advection increases further on Wednesday, keeping relative
humidity values at or above 25% across the area despite highs
in the 80s. Despite the higher RH, southerly winds gusting
35-45mph will result in at least elevated fire weather concerns
to the area. If the atmosphere mixes greater than currently
forecast (lower RH) an area of near-critical to critical
conditions may develop given the strong/gusty winds.

A dryline moves through the area Wednesday night with the area
under a drier airmass in place on Thursday. Afternoon relative
humidity values on Thursday will fall to 10-20%, lowest across
northwestern portions of the area. Breezy winds gusting 20-30mph
could result in an area of near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions, though the exact area of strongest winds is
uncertain at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion