Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

093
FXUS63 KOAX 011829
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
129 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Regular chances for showers and thunderstorms continue with
  small chances of storms in the forecast for this afternoon/evening.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy
  weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and
  thunderstorms throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Sunny skies have helped push temps close to 85F by 1:00 PM. An
old front/baroclinic zone is draped north to south across the
area near the Missouri River. Winds are light and out of the
north on the west of the front and weak easterly winds are found
east of it. The upper pattern shows a cut- off low spinning
over Montana with some ridging over our area between the H5 low
and another trof digging down the East Coast. With dewpoints in
the 60s, heat indices are 3-6 degrees warmer than the what the
thermometer reads.

The remnants of an MCC pushing in from the west may have
enough CAPE (3000 J/kg) to maintain a few showers or even
rumbles of thunder as it pushes into the eastern portions of
Nebraska. Shear is underwhelming at 25 knots. Still, a similar
environment in northern Iowa managed a rogue severe storm
earlier this morning. CAMs have begun to develop solutions of a
couple of quick cells developing in western Iowa around 4pm this
evening as low-level lapse rates soar. Have maintained some
10-30% PoPs in the CWA this afternoon. A dry afternoon is most
likely.

Better chances of precip await the arrival of another MCV
overnight (2am?). It`ll develop this evening in the Front Range
/ Panhandle area and move east, weakening as it approaches the
Missouri River. Each threat (both this evening and overnight)
brings a small chance of 1" hail or 60 mph winds.

.TUESDAY...

Yet another day of highs in the 80s. This will be #10 in a row
of Omaha managing at least 80F.

Another shortwave rounds the H5 low out west, bringing another
opportunity for showers and thunder to the area. Placement and
timing are nebulous, but best chances are west of the Missouri
and in the afternoon. Lapse rates aren`t great and shear will be
lacking, so maybe we`ll see a pulse storm or two. Severe weather
is unlikely. And wouldn`t you know it, models are trying to
bring another MCS through the area overnight.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

As the upper pattern shifts east, the strong moisture return
will become increasingly pointed at Nebraska and Iowa on
Wednesday and Thursday. This should drive dewpoints a few
degrees higher by the end of the week, making the heat feel a
little stickier. These days will bring some of the highest PoPs
of the week (70% west Wednesday and 60-80% for everyone
Thursday.) As of now, the severe weather threat remains west of
here.

.THE WEEKEND...

It looks like the streak of 80F+ days will continue for the
foreseeable future in Omaha as temps climb over the weekend.
The cut-off low drifts east (lots of solutions as to exactly
where and how fast), with a mid-level ridging pattern expected
to emerge over the central CONUS. This would lead to an even
warmer pattern as we get deeper into June. The Climate
Prediction Center currently puts Omaha`s odds of being warmer
than normal for June 6-10 at 71%. The odds of hitting 90F for
most of the days of week 2 (June 8-14) run from 25-40% (CPC).
It`s meteorological summer!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the period with no thunder
currently forecast at TAF sites. Have introduced increased
chances of thunder this afternoon/eve in western Iowa (30%) but
believe those storms will most likely miss KOMA to the east.

Otherwise expect winds mostly at 5-15 knots out of the
northeast. They`ll pick up some speed Tuesday morning with gusts
of up to 20 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

148
FXUS63 KGID 012014
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of storms remains on track to impact the local area
  late this evening and into the overnight hours. A marginal to
  slight risk for severe weather continues...with wind gusts
  60+ MPH and hail to the size half dollars both possible.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely
  impact parts of the local area through the upcoming weekend.
  Some of the storms could be severe at times, although timing
  and details regarding the severe potential are still
  uncertain.

- As soils continue to saturate across the region, could see
  some localized flooding with any stronger storms that are able
  to drop 1-3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time.

- After a seasonably warm start to the week today, temperatures
  should fluctuate in the lower to possibly mid-80s for the
  remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms developed just southwest of
the local area early this morning and weakened as they tracked
east northeast through the afternoon hours. As skies clear
behind the remaining cloud cover, expect temperatures to rebound
into the mid 80s to near 90 by late afternoon...with eyes then
turning west where the next line of showers and thunderstorms is
currently starting to intensify over the central Rockies.

Models today have been fairly consistent developing a fairly
large complex of storms over the high plains later this
afternoon...which should track east towards the local area
during the evening hours. This fairly widespread area of
storms...some of which could be severe given the available
instability and nearly 40 KTS of 0-6 KM shear...should reach our
western areas by around 8 PM...and likely the Tri-cities closer
to 10PM. Given the potential for some organized storms embedded
in this cluster, hail to around half dollar size will be
possible initially during the evening hours, with the main
threat transitioning to strong thunderstorm wind gusts later in
the event. Currently, we remain in a slight risk for severe
weather for western areas and a more marginal risk from roughly
the Tri-cities and to the east/northeast, which seems
reasonable considering the timing and expected evolution of
this event.

Behind the initial surge of thunderstorms late tonight, several
models indicate redevelopment on its backside...likely fed by
a southeasterly LLJ...which could keep things active in spots
until around daybreak Tuesday. Skies will eventually clear by
midday, however, with another seasonably warm afternoon in store
for the local area. In fact, with a weak upper level flow
pattern and the lack of strong or persistent ridging, most days
over the next 7-10 days should have near to slightly above
normal temperatures each afternoon with periodic chances for
thunderstorms largely driven by weak disturbances in westerly
flow and plenty of available instability forecast across the
region. Given the uncertainty in timing and lack of really
strong shear on any particular day, trying to time severe
chances beyond the next 24 hours is difficult, although
additional severe storm chances will be likely over the course
of the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period
although some periods of MVFR or lower CIGS/VSBYs will be
possible late tonight and into the overnight hours with any
stronger thunderstorms that impact either terminal.

For the rest of the afternoon hours...expect the mid level
cloud deck across the area to thin out as it progresses to the
east northeast with generally northerly winds eventually
shifting and becoming more northeasterly across the area by this
evening. Aft about 02/04Z...expect the next upper level
disturbance to approach from the west/southwest spreading the
chance for SHRAs/TSRAs across the area. While it will not likely
continuously storm overnight, there will be about a 10 HR
window where some storms could impact either terminal due some
redevelopment modeled on the backside of this disturbance. CIGS
should eventually improve aft 02/14Z...with southeasterly winds
near 10 KTS expected through the morning hours Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion