Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

615
FXUS63 KOAX 020519
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. The hottest days
  look to be Friday and Saturday with heat indices up to 100-105.

- Additional severe storms possible Thursday evening, and
  Friday evening.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of
  rain and storms waits for the evening of the Fourth of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Inhibition proved to be too strong this evening, with the
anticipated convection that was scheduled for after 7 PM
fizzling out over the past few hours. We do still have some
mechanisms for ascent overnight, mainly in the form of low-level
jet nosing across northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa, but
even then, only a few scattered showers have been the result.
Newer runs of the HRRR have jumped on board with the lack of
storms, and now wants to carry that trend through the overnight
hours, keeping the lid on the sufficient shear and instability
that is there. Out best chance at any showers or storms will
come from the southwest, as a few sub-severe storms could get
carried northeastward by the southwesterly steering winds, but
capping will also limit that potential.

Storm chances tomorrow are becoming increasingly murky as the
evening forecast fizzles out. Much of the 00z guidance was
banking on one or more clusters of storms forming leading into
Thursday, so we`ll have to wait for 06z CAMs to join the HRRR in
a newer look at the daytime forecast. The latest runs of the
HRRR do depict a much drier low-level environment compared to
today (about 5-8 lower dewpoints), making for a very hard hill
to climb for any hopeful updrafts trying to reach convective
initiation. Model soundings do depict healthy mid-level
moisture, making overly warm temperatures hard to sell. Heading
into the evening and overnight hours, low-level mass fields do
increase confluence across the NE/IA border region, making
elevated overnight storms possible as the low-level jet ramps
up, but with drier low-levels, that may prove difficult once
again.

Friday and Beyond:

Mid/upper heights are on the increase Friday and Saturday as a
pattern change settles in for the Central Plains. Southwesterly flow
that had lobbed shortwaves and nocturnal convection our way will
switch to zonal flow, with rain chances continuing to clog up the
forecast. Highs on Friday are set to continue the warmth in the
lower 90s, with apparent temperatures maxing out in the 95-105
degree range. Those apparent temperatures take a 5 degree dip based
on the latest data for the Fourth of July, with both days still
representing the higher-end heat numbers that could easily be
thwarted by poorly-times showers and storms. Still no promises for a
dry holiday Saturday, but models are placing the best chances for
widespread rain to the east of the area, likely giving us breaks in
the action for outdoor festivities if we do end up having some
shower activity.

Sunday onwards trends drier precipitation-wise, as a mid/upper ridge
takes shape over the central CONUS and wards away widespread
rain/storm chances to the north and south of the forecast area. This
will mean that heat will continue, but strong to severe chances
recede back west towards the High Plains through the first half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions tonight with the return of low-level wind shear
overnight. Winds around 10kt at the surface will rapidly
increase to around 40-45kt around 1800ft, impacting all three of
our terminals across eastern Nebraska. We`ll see the low-level
jet weaken Thursday morning ending the low-level wind shear
concern around 14-15Z. There is potential for a band of showers
or storms moving through mid-morning as a remnant of storms
currently moving into south-central Nebraska. Very uncertain
that these showers/storms will hold together as they approach
so not including these in this TAF package. The chance for
evening storms is lower as well (20%), with better chances north
in southern South Dakota. For this reason, very little in the
TAFs beyond LLWS this morning. Will likely see lLWS return this
evening but probably beyond this TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

150
FXUS63 KGID 020651
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
151 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and southerly
  winds gusting 20-30mph.

- Scattered strong-severe storms capable of producing damaging
  wind gusts and large hail are possible across mainly western
  portions of the area during the evening-early overnight hours.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances continue Friday and Saturday
  mainly during the evening-overnight hours. These storms could
  be strong- severe capable of producing damaging wind gusts
  and large hail.

- Hot and Humid weather continues throughout the forecast period
  with highs in the 80s and 90s and heat index values in the
  upper 80s to around 100 degrees.&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of north central
Kansas with breezy/gusty winds (30-45mph) in stratiform rain north
of the thunderstorms. Off and on storms will likely linger
throughout the early morning hours, but severe storms are not
expected. Aloft the area remains under southwesterly flow with
ridging over the Great Lakes and troughing over the Western U.S.
Scattered showers/storms may develop across eastern portions of the
area around sunrise to the mid-morning hours. Highs today will climb
into the upper 80s to mid 90s, though eastern portions of the area
could be a couple degrees cooler due to lingering cloud coverage.
Southerly winds will be breezy at times, gusting 20-30mph. Scattered
thunderstorms are favored to develop over western KS/NE during the
late afternoon-evening hours. These storms are likely to form into a
cluster of strong-severe storms as they move east. Storms look to
reach the western edge of the forecast area during the evening
hours. How far east storms maintain their strength is uncertain as
instability wanes around sunset and storms enter an environment with
worse shear. These storms would carry a threat of damaging wind
gusts and large hail. Further north across South Dakota a cluster of
storms is likely to form into an MCS during the late evening hours.
This MCS could clip far northern portions of the area overnight,
though most guidance keeps it north of the area.

Lingering showers/storms are possible to start the day on Friday as
southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to more westerly/zonal
flow. Another hot and humid day is expected across the area as highs
climb into the 90s with heat index values topping out around 100
degrees. In this hot and humid airmass scattered thunderstorms are
favored to develop across north-central Nebraska during the evening
hours. The exact location of storm development may depend on
remnant outflow boundaries from tonight`s/Friday morning`s
convection bringing a degree of uncertainty to the forecast.
Still wherever storms form, favorable CAPE and Shear would
support these storms becoming severe with a threat for damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Over time these storms may form into
an MCS which would result in an overall higher threat for
damaging wind gusts.

In what feels like a broken record, lingering showers/storms are
possible to start the day on the 4th of July. This will give way to
a hot and humid day with highs in the 80s/90s and heat index values
in the 90s. Thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon-
overnight hours. Given the favorable airmass, these storms could be
strong/severe though details remain uncertain at this time but will
become clearer as we get closer in time to Hi-Res guidance. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over most of the western part of the
country and extends over the northern Plains and much of the Upper
Midwest. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast towards the
Northeast. Temperatures this afternoon will heat up into the upper
80s to mid/upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms this evening into tonight with another shortwave expected to
move over the area. The latest HRRR shows some storms developing
across south central Nebraska between 9 PM and around 1 AM. Portions
of north central Kansas may also get storms. The main threats will
be hail up to around the size of half dollars and wind gusts up to
around 60 MPH. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Thursday into Thursday night...

The HRRR and NAM12 are both showing showers and storms developing
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
Thursday morning. These storms may get strong to possibly marginally
severe with fairly high CAPE, instability, and upper level lift
present. Some isolated, weaker showers and storms may linger into
the afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty about storm
development across the area late in the afternoon into the evening
hours. The HRRR brings in some showers and storms around 8 or 9 PM
with everything pretty much gone by 2 AM. However, the NAM12
develops a storm around the Grand Island area by early evening and
continues storm development through most of the night generally
along and north of I-80. If these storms do develop, they have a
fairly high potential (around 70%) of becoming severe given very
high CAPE (3,000 to 5,000+ J/kg), decent wind shear (30 to 40 knots
across most of the area), and mid-level lapse rates around 7 to 8
degrees C/km. The deciding factor may be if a shortwave trough moves
over/near the area. Most of the area is in a marginal to slight risk
of severe weather. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar to
those from today. Low temperatures Thursday night may be a couple of
degrees warmer than the previous night.

Friday and Friday night...

Temperatures are expected to warm up on Friday with highs in the
lower to upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms across most of south central and central Nebraska Friday
evening into Friday night. Details about these storms remain
uncertain at this time.

Saturday and Saturday night...

There remains uncertainty with regards to temperatures and
precipitation on Saturday. There is supposed to be a cold front
moving into the area but the timing is uncertain. At this time, high
temperatures on Saturday are expected to range from the mid 80s to
mid/upper 90s. High temperatures will be cooler (especially along
and north of I-80) if the NAM12 is right since it brings in the cold
front sooner and develops precipitation earlier in the day. Both the
GFS and ECMWF bring in the front and precipitation later in the day
(late afternoon/early evening). The GFS and ECMWF are not in
agreement with regards to placement of the showers and storms. There
is potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe
late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening given fairly high
instability and wind shear. At this time, there is not high
confidence in the placement of showers and storms Saturday evening,
but there is fairly high confidence (around 60%) that there will be
convection.

Sunday through Tuesday...

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the
mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances (around 15% to 25%) of showers
and thunderstorms are in the forecast for various parts of the area
Sunday through Tuesday. Morning low temperatures will generally be
in the low 20s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though the thunderstorms did not pan out tonight, a few decaying
showers will possible to be in the KEAR vicinity around 7-9z.
No impacts to aviation is expected (VFR conditions
maintaining). The big uncertainty in the later end of the 6z TAF
period (0-6z) will be the potential again for evening to
nighttime thunderstorms again Thursday evening. Confidence,
though slightly increased since earlier, is still not high
enough to mention in a prevailing group for now.

Winds tonight out of the south to southeast will not be expected
to gust higher than 20kts with winds mainly sustaining near
10kts. Winds between 16-18z will be expected to pick up with
peak afternoon gusts likely to range as high as 25-30kts across
much of the afternoon hours. Directions are not expected to
adjust much (180-140 degrees) with similar conditions likely
retuning in the evening.

LLWS, though possibly marginal at times, will generally not be
expected to stay in place long overnight. Another weak LLWS
signal looks to come back Thursday night as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion