46°F
Updated:
10/20/2025
08:12:16am

Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
171 FXUS63 KOAX 201048 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 548 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds gusting 30-40+ mph Monday into Tuesday will lead to increased fire danger, mainly for unharvested crop fields. - Widespread frost and some freezing seems likely Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Wednesday night into Thursday. - The next notable precipitation chances arrive Thursday night/Friday with a 30-60% chance of rain near and south of Interstate 80. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 Satellite shows a few high clouds over northeast Nebraska this morning, but the rest of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa remain clear. Winds are out of the south ahead of a approaching cold front that will sweep across the area today. A low pressure system is sitting over central South Dakota this morning with the cold front draped south currently between Valentine and O`niell. As this cold front moves across the area today we could see a few spotty light showers across northeast Nebraska, but the main concern for today will be the strong northwesterly winds behind the cold front moving into the area. Expect winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, strongest in northeast Nebraska this afternoon, becoming weaker this evening. We should mostly stay just below Advisory criteria, but we could potentially see a few gusts to 45 mph. With these winds comes increased fire potential, mainly for agricultural fields as fuels remain too green for more widespread extreme fire danger. Winds will ramp back up again Tuesday morning as sunrise brings mixing of stronger winds aloft back down to the surface. Expect wind gusts again 30 to 40 mph starting mid-morning, starting to weaken through the afternoon as the pressure gradient starts to relax with the Low continuing to progress off to the east. Again, we could see fire concerns with regard to agricultural fields, but probably not widespread concerns. Going into midweek, the upper-level pattern shows the cut-off Low off the coast of southern California finally getting picked back up into the upper-level flow pushing it east into the Desert Southwest. This will amplify a ridge over the Central CONUS. Despite the building ridge, we don`t ever see the warmer air as the surface low develops to southwest keeping us under cooler northwesterly flow. With calming surface winds, we`ll see temperatures plummet Tuesday night into early Wednesday with a good chance for widespread frost across northeast Nebraska and areas of frost across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Temperatures will be falling into the low-to-mid 30s. Despite the cool start, we`ll still be warming into the low-to-mid 60s by the afternoon under mostly clear skies. Thursday will be similar with a cool start (potential for another morning of frost) with temperatures again warming into the low-to-mid 60s by the afternoon. Towards the end of the week we see the aforementioned surface low associated with the previously cut-off low travel eastward into Kansas and Oklahoma, bringing a rain shield north of the Low into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Friday. This means showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though nothing severe expected due to limited shear and instability north of the warm front and surface Low. Will likely be a fairly sharp cut-off for who sees rain and who doesn`t, but due to uncertainty in the exact track of this system, we do have rain chances as far north as Omaha and Council Bluffs. Rain chances end Saturday morning as the Low tracks off to the east. As this happens another Ridge builds in behind it, bringing quiet, dry conditions for the rest of Saturday into Sunday. Another strong trough moves in on Monday bringing another period of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 A cold front will move across the area this morning bringing in strong northwesterly winds. LLWS this morning will diminish by 14Z with VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds move in with gusts to 30KT, occasional gusts to 35KT possible. Potential for another period of LLWS overnight tonight depending on how much surface winds weaken. For now leaving it out of the TAFs. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
853 FXUS63 KGID 201132 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today (gusts to 45 MPH) and breezy Tuesday (gusts to 35 MPH) with near critical fire weather concerns both afternoons. - Seasonal temperatures (60s) through the end of the week with potentially frosty mornings both Wednesday and Thursday. A few sub-freezing temperatures may be possible in the typically coolest spots. - Spotty trace amount rain chances this afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, rain chances increase Thursday evening into Friday, especially for areas south of Interstate 80. A few thunderstorms will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 Breezy southerly winds were observed across the local area overnight ahead of an approaching cold front crossing the Sandhills early this morning. These winds have helped to keep overnight temperatures on the mild side, or about 10-15 degrees above yesterday mornings frosty lows. While winds will subside (and temperatures drop a bit) just ahead of the cold front over the next couple of hours, strong northwesterly winds are anticipated in its wake by mid morning...with gusts of 40 to 45 MPH possible this afternoon. Given the strong winds and a relatively dry airmass (with minimum RH values expected to fall to between 25 and 30 percent), near critical fire weather concerns are anticipated area wide this afternoon. In addition...a few light showers or sprinkles may be possible late this afternoon or early evening (as indicated in the CAMS and supported by some minimal elevated instability), but little to no accumulation is anticipated (trace amounts). While winds will diminish some behind the front this evening, they are forecast to remain steady between 5-10 mph and out of the northwest overnight, as the surface ridge will remain well west of the local area. These steady winds should help keep the lowest layers of atmosphere mixed, and prevent temperatures to dropping off and allowing for any frost Tuesday morning. While not as windy as Monday, breezy northwest winds with gusts of 30 to 35 MPH will be possible Tuesday afternoon, with minimum relative humidity values once again being the limiting factor for more critical fire weather concerns. That said...elevated to near critical fire weather conditions seem likely, and continued the mention in the morning HWO. With a ridge of surface high pressure shifting east across the local area late Tuesday through Wednesday, light winds will return to the local area...which combined with clear skies and a seasonably cool airmass, could bring some frosty conditions back to the area both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. At this point, sub-freezing temperatures look to be limited to the typical coldest spots, with most location currently forecast to bottom out in the mid-30s both days. Some model discrepancy thereafter with the track and coverage of precipitation with an upper level low coming from the four corners region, but at least the southern half of the area...and possibly extending as far north as the I-80 corridor...will see an increasing chance for precipitation along with a chance for some thunderstorms late in the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions anticipated through the period. Expect light and shifting winds over the next hour or so as a cold front rapidly approaches, then crosses, the terminals. Behind this front, expect northwesterly winds to increase by mid-morning...with occasional gusts 30+ KTS. In addition, expect to see some varying mid level cloud cover, but CIGS will remain VFR. Winds should eventually diminish late in the day to near 10 KTS or so by 21/00...with some marginal LLWS possible out of the north during the late night hours (although not included in 12Z TAFS given uncertainty in meeting criteria). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SR AVIATION...SR
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