84°F
Updated:
7/3/2026
3:46:15pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
599 FXUS63 KOAX 031802 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There`s an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms this evening capable of strong damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two. - Another round of storms may be possible Saturday evening and night, however it will depend on how storms move through Friday night. - Hot weather continues with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indicies remain in the mid 90s to around 100. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Today and Tonight... Weakening morning convection brought patchy cloud cover that will, once again, help mitigate some of the intense heat today. Temperatures by noon had reached the upper 70s to mid 80s. Maximum heat indices are expected to reach the upper 90s and low 100s this afternoon. Machine Learning and CAM guidance continue to strongly support additional storm development this afternoon and evening. Convection looks to blossom along an outflow boundary in the vicinity of northeast Nebraska. Over 2000 J/kg of instability will be available to fuel developing storms this afternoon, with around 30kts of deep layer shear to help organize updrafts. Large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible with any storms that develop. However, the greatest threat looks to be strong damaging winds (75+ mph) as the storms eventually meld together into into a bowing segment and surge southeast through the evening hours. Several models continue the severe threat through the overnight and into early Saturday morning, as additional storms redevelop behind the primary line. However, these may be inhibited by how much the atmosphere is worked over by the initial severe line. Heavy rain will also be a concern tonight. While storms generally look to be fairly progressive, several rounds of additional storms on saturated soils could lead to areas of flooding. Bottom line, showers and storms this evening and night could literally rain on your parade. Be sure to have safety plans in place if you are partaking in outdoor events or activities this afternoon and evening. Saturday (Independence Day)... The good news is Friday nights convection pushing south of the area early Saturday morning could be our saving grace for the 4th of July. While there remains a low 15-30% chance for a pop-up shower or storm in the afternoon/evening, the greater chance for storms should remain just to the south of the NE/KS border. That being said, the latest runs of a few CAMs have hinted at an MCS developing over north-central Nebraska and moving east into northeast Nebraska Saturday night. If this occurs, the best chance for storms would be from around 7 PM to midnight. Luckily, appears any storms should weaken as the move east/southeast overnight. The downside is we will still be fairly hot and humid, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Thankfully not Heat Advisory criteria, but folks will certainly need to hydrate if spending extended time outdoors for the holiday. Sunday and Beyond... Sunday and Monday should give a break from the off and on storm chances, as a ridge begins to build over the desert southwest. However, this will also lead to continued heat across the region. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s and low 90s through the upcoming week. Storm chances look to return to the forecast late Tuesday/early Wednesday, and continue through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Strong storms are expected over eastern Nebraska this evening and travel southeast, bringing strong damaging winds to the region. There will also be a chance for large hail, heavy rain, and perhaps a tornado or two. The best chance for severe storms will be between 00-06Z tonight. Storms should clear the TAF sites from northeast to southwest between 08Z to 12Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...KG
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
542 FXUS63 KGID 031931 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected this evening and overnight into Saturday morning. - Saturday, the 4th of July, looks largely dry during the daytime hours (drying out in northern Kansas from lingering storms). The evening hours look largely dry as well, most activity is expected to the west and south of central/south central Nebraska. - Drying out and summer like (highs in the upper 80s and low 90s) for the end of the weekend and first of the next work- week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 I have focused on the nearest 24-48 hours and thus the majority of this discussion will focus on that period. This evening and overnight hours has multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity, I will go into the expectations of each one. Round 1: This evening 5 PM - 11 PM This area is what we are watching now, primarily development is expected along the Hwy 30/Platte River Corridor between Grand Island and Columbus, NE. Between 1 PM and 2 PM cloud cover, cumulus has grown in areal extent. The vertical nature of this cumulus is still relatively shallow, but the area shows where there is more instability. This area southward along Highway 81 will be will be the favored area for development between 5-7 PM. This activity could be severe and is highlighted by the SPC enhanced risk, and expect a convective watch at some point in time. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls are the primary threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out, and flooding, especially for areas that receive multiple later rounds is a threat. This activity is expected to track south and east into eastern/southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas as we move towards sunset and beyond. Round 2: Tonight midnight - 4 AM Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the nose of the Low Level Jet with thunderstorms developing along an east-west line following roughly Interstate 80. There is some question exactly where this activity will develop, but anywhere along and south of I-80 is in the region for being impacted by these thunderstorms. Some of this activity could be severe. This activity is expected to track southeast with time. Meanwhile Round 3 will be starting off.... Round 3: Tonight 3 AM - Saturday mid-morning Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska and track slowly east during the overnight and early morning hours. This activity is expected to be similar to what we saw this morning, with weak showers/thunderstorms. Severe storms are not anticipated. How will these storms impact Saturday July 4th? All of these rounds of thunderstorms today will impact how the chance for thunderstorms develops Saturday. The morning thunderstorms will push the potential for afternoon/evening thunderstorms southward into central and southern/eastern Kansas. While we cannot rule out some of the afternoon storms impacting Rooks, Mitchell, and Osborne counties, as of this forecast it`s looking optimistic. For the areas that are impacted by Round 3, once it stops raining and clears out, it is expected to be a dry and sunny day. For everyone else, it looks to be a dry and sunny day. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, and they are expected to track southeast with time, similar to the track seen last week. This could impact north central Kansas counties in the late evening and early overnight hours. Overall the picture for tomorrow for north central Kansas will become more clear tomorrow morning after all of these rounds of thunderstorms. Highs on the 4th are currently forecasted to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. After the 4th... The end of the weekend and start of the work-week look dry as upper level ridging begins to build in from the southwest. It doesn`t last overly long as some stronger disturbances break the ridge down and precipitation chances return for the second half of the work week. Temperatures will generally be seasonal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions will begin this TAF period, with Thunderstorms entering, especially for KGRI after 20-21z. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near KGRI this afternoon, leaving KEAR mostly dry until the overnight hours when more thunderstorm development is expected that could impact both terminals. For now, with the uncertainty that the thunderstorms will directly impact either terminal, have kept the Prob30 forecast. Expect the activity in the late evening, early overnight hours to slide off to the south east and showers and thunderstorms that will slide in from the west will primarily be south of the terminals. Thus with this, have kept both terminals dry and without a prevailing or Prob30 group beyond 07z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Billings Wright
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