Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

849
FXUS63 KOAX 132320
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
520 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  with mid 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, and mid 60s to
  near 70 by Tuesday.

- Rain returns late tonight into Saturday, mainly along and
  south of I-80, with the highest chance near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border (40-60%).

- An active weather pattern arrives by the middle of next week.
  Periodic rain chances with cooler, yet still above normal
  temperatures can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today through Saturday...

Clearing skies helped temperatures bottom out in the 20s overnight,
with a few locations dipping into the upper teens. However, we
quickly rebounded, reaching the upper 40s and mid 50s by noon,
despite the gradually increasing cloud cover ahead of the next
approaching shortwave disturbance.

Expect increasing rain chances across far southeast Nebraska after
midnight tonight and into Saturday morning. There still remains some
discrepancies amongst model guidance as to how far north the rain
will reach. Similar to the 18Z sounding here, many of the forecast
soundings indicate a a pocket of low level dry air that may make it
difficult for rain to reach the surface. Overall, any rain will
likely remain along and south of I-80 Saturday, with a few sprinkles
possible to the north. Measurable rainfall amounts will likely be
light, generally around a quarter of a inch or less, with highest
amounts near the Nebraska/Kansas border. Showers exit to the
southeast by midnight Saturday night.

Temperatures should stay a little warmer tonight, with the blanket
of clouds, dropping into the low and mid 30s. Highs on Saturday will
reach up to 60 over northeast Nebraska, but stay in the low to mid
50s over southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa where clouds and showers
linger.

Sunday through Next Week...

A subtle upper ridge moves into the the southern plains Sunday,
keeping us warm and dry through the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday are forecast to
span the low to mid 60s.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave will
bring a surge of warmer air Tuesday. Expect most locations to reach
into the upper 60s and low 70s.

That shortwave and resulting surface low will pass through the
Dakotas Tuesday, potentially resulting in another round of showers,
this time passing over the northern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to remain warm again Wednesday, reaching into the
60s once again.

Colder air won`t arrive until Thursday and Friday, as the main
trough passes through the Central Plains. High temperatures are
expected to dip into the 40s and 50s late this week, which is still
10 to 15 degrees above normal for late February. This system will
create another surface low with the potential to bring precipitation
across the region. Cold air wrapping around the backside of this low
could transition rain over to snow Thursday afternoon and into
Friday. However, this far out, model consensus remains too low to
know for sure. But stay tuned to future forecast updates as the
details become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions continue through the first half of the forecast.
Light south to southeast winds prevail overnight. Winds will
back around towards the southeast and east for much of the area
by Saturday morning as a low pressure system develops south of
the area. Increasing cloud cover is expected with this system,
but VFR conditions continue for OFK. OMA is forecast to remain
north of MVFR ceilings at this time, but if this deck shifts
north, a brief reduction in ceilings may be possible. The best
chance of MVFR ceilings and light rain showers is anticipated at
LNK beginning during the late morning on Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

865
FXUS63 KGID 132349
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will be increasing this evening/tonight into at
  least the first half of the day on Saturday. The overall best
  chances remain across areas near and south of the NE/KS state
  line, where amounts exceeding 0.25-in are possible. Some
  uncertainty remains with just how far north measurable rain
  gets...some models show potential for at least 0.01-in near
  I-80.

- Dry conditions return to start the new week, with forecast
  highs currently peaking on Tuesday with upper 60s to low 70s.
  Tuesday will have the potential for gusty SW to W winds, and
  with the warmer temperatures/drier dewpoints...potential for
  near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will be a
  concern, especially for areas west of HWY 281.

- Additional low-end (20-30 percent) chances for precipitation
  return Tuesday evening through Friday, but overall confidence
  in any of those chances remains low due to model
  uncertainties. Cooler air eventually works its way in, with
  highs dropping into the 40s-50s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Currently...

Outside of a few scattered sprinkles sliding through southern
portions of the forecast area early this morning, been another
overall quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data
continue to show zonal flow in place across the region. Broad
ridging extends north through the Plains, set up between
troughing along the East Coast and a low pressure system
working its way into the Desert SW. Satellite imagery showing
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies currently, with increasing
mid-upper level cloud cover inching its way closer toward the
forecast area...a trend that will continue the rest of today. At
the surface, we`re sitting between high pressure over the
Midwest and SErn CONUS and weak troughing along the High Plains.
This has brought us SSWrly winds...and similar to yesterday,
while most speeds will top out around 10-15 MPH, some gusts
closer to 20 will be possible through the afternoon hours. Not
looking at any surprises as far as temperatures with generally
low 60s expected.

This evening through Saturday...

Overall, there hasn`t been any significant changes in models
today regarding the incoming precipitation chances...which
remain liquid through entire event. The upper level
troughing/low moving into the Desert SW this afternoon will
continue its eastward trek through Saturday, with models in
pretty good agreement showing the center of the 500mb low
tracking along/just south of the OK/TX border. This will keep
the bulk of heavier precipitation well to our south across the
Srn Plains, but the main trough axis will be passing through the
area, and models show the potential for a sharper/better swath
of forcing tied closer to 700mb...driving our chances. Main
question has been and still remains with just how far north more
than a trace or few hundredths can get...agreement is still
good that the better potential for 0.1 in or more lies closer
to/south of the NE/KS state line. At the surface, the main low
is also tracking well south of the forecast area, meaning winds
will gradually turn more easterly- northerly with time...which
can impact the northward extent of precipitation. Most models
show overall not a lot going on through the evening hours...the
better chances ramp up after midnight tonight, and especially
closer to the 09-12Z. Those better chances look to continue
roughly into midday-early afternoon, with things tapering off
from west-east through the rest of the afternoon. Have some 20
percent chances lingering in the far SE into early evening, but
several models have things dry by 00Z.

Not a ton of change with forecast rainfall totals for the
event...with amounts around the 0.10-0.2 range along the state
line, amounts in the 0.2-0.5 range across north central KS.
Think that across our KS counties, most totals end up closer to
that 0.2 number than 0.5...ensemble probabilities of 0.5 in or
more are still mainly only in that 10-30 percent range. The NAM
and ECMWF are on the more generous side with at least 0.01
in...EC ensemble has probabilities over 60 percent as far north
as along I-80 (GFS ensemble is further south).

Confidence in high temperatures on Saturday remains on the low
side...how the precipitation actually ends up evolving will play
a large role. Expecting plenty of cloud cover across central
and SE areas...but there will be the potential for some sun in
the NW as the afternoon passes, allowing for some warming.
Forecast highs range from the low 50s in the SE to near 60 in
the NW.

Sunday and on...

Overall quiet conditions return to the forecast for the start of
the new week, with models in good agreement showing broad
upper level ridging moving in behind this Sat. system. Through
the day on Sunday, winds turn back to the SSW, as the area is
once again set up between departing sfc high pressure to the SE
and a deepening trough axis over the High Plains...winds on
Monday are a little more uncertain with models showing the
potential for a weak boundary to move in. With a lack of colder
air accompanying that Sat. system, forecast highs both Sunday
and Monday bounce back into the low-mid 60s.

Tuesday is currently forecast to be the overall warmest day of
the week, with highs near 70 to lower 70s across
central/southern portions of the forecast area. It also has the
potential to be a breezy/windy day...and fire weather is a
concern. In the upper levels, models showing larger, broader
troughing taking over the western CONUS, with the potential for
a shortwave disturbance to swing NE out of the central Rockies
into the Dakotas. Ahead of this wave, sfc low pressure deepens
over the Nrn/Central High Plains...with a frontal boundary
swinging through during the day. We`ll see how models trend with
these features and the timing, but current forecast has gusty
SSW developing by midday, switching to the west through the
afternoon. Dewpoints dropping into the 20s-low 30s and current
forecast highs results in relative humidities dropping below 30
percent basically west of HWY 281, and near/below 20 percent
west of HWY 183. Potential for near-critical/critical fire
weather conditions...so did insert a mention into the HWO.
Forecast has some low end precipitation chances (20 percent)
mainly Tue evening/night as that shortwave swings
through...focused across the northern half of the forecast area.

Zonal upper level flow returns to the region for the latter half
of the week...potential remains for a couple of shortwave
disturbances to pass through the region, bringing addition
precip chances...but confidence in any of those details is low,
so the chances remain low. Even though one boundary pushes
through Tuesday...not a great push of colder air, so highs on
Wednesday remain in the 60s. A reinforcing front looks to push
through Thursday, ushering in colder air and another push of
gusty winds, this time out of the NW. Highs for Thursday and
Friday fall back more into the 40s-50s, still above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with some
MVFR CIGS possible for a few hours if some rain showers reach
the terminals during the morning hours Saturday.

For tonight...expect increasing mid level clouds at both
terminals over the next couple of hours as an area of low
pressure across the southwest tracks into the southern plains.
Towards daybreak Saturday...expect the atmosphere to begin to
Saturate with CIGS lowering to near 5KFT and a small chance for
MVFR CIGS and some -RA from roughly 14/12-14/18. Winds will
generally be light through the period...at less than 12
KTS...predominantly southerly through the evening hours and
eventually becoming northerly on the backside of the passing
area of low pressure Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion