Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

008
FXUS63 KOAX 171843
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
143 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday and Monday will be days to watch very closely if you
  live within the Omaha area of forecast responsibility.
  Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected bringing
  the potential for large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and
  flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This afternoon, an elongated sfc low will be in place from SE
Colorado/SW Kansas up into the Dakotas. A dryline is set up toward
the KS/CO border and a warm front is located across central
Nebraska. Temps are currently in the 80s in the warm sector with
dewpoints in the mid-60s. SBCAPE values of 3500+ J/kg, MLCAPE values
of 3000+ J/kg and DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg are expected. Expect
good instability through the afternoon/evening and fairly steep
lapse rates, particularly down into central and eastern Nebraska.

Portions of northeastern Nebraska in particular are showing
potential for an environment favorable for strong updrafts and
potentially some longer lived supercells. Any storms that are able
to get going and become sustained in that favorable environment
would have the best chance of developing a tornado, with some
potential to be strong. Storms are expected to develop into a line,
posing a damaging wind threat along with hail and tornadoes
possible.

Heading into Monday, a broad trough extends from the PACNW up into
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. Another system moves in through the
day, bringing additional chances for strong to severe storms,
particularly for areas along and south of Interstate 80. There still
remain some questions as to how far north the warm front and system
get. The environment is expected to be primed with strong
instability and deep layer shear conducive for supercell development
and maintenance. With this type of set up, large hail and damaging
winds are to be expected in addition to the possibility for a few
strong and potentially long-lived tornadoes. Flash flooding will be
possible, particularly in areas that have also received a few inches
of rain over the last 48 hours.

Expect cooler temperatures for much of the week as a cold front
pushes into the region Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday bring relief
from the recent storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KOFK: MVFR conditions persist at the terminal at the early onset of
the forecast period. Expect a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms by 23Z. Any storms that do develop will have the
potential of producing strong wind gusts, large hail, and heavy
rainfall resulting in reductions to visibility. An isolated tornado
cannot be entirely ruled out. Winds shift from southeasterly
this afternoon to northwesterly by 23Z. Ceilings may fall to IFR
levels toward the end of the TAF period, after 11Z.

KOMA: VFR ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR as storms develop
this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms with all hazards
are to be expected after 00Z with better chances closer to 02Z
at the terminal. South winds shift to the north tomorrow morning
by 13Z with ceilings expected to lower to IFR levels.

KLNK: VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR by 23Z as a storm system
moves into the region. Expect strong to severe thunderstorms as
early as 00Z with better potential after 02Z. All severe types
(hail, wind, isolate tornado) will be possible. South winds
persist through the afternoon, becoming northerly after 05Z.
Ceilings are expected to fall to IFR levels by 14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for NEZ065-066-068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

294
FXUS63 KGID 171818
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
118 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening, mainly in
  areas along/east of Highway 281. All severe threats are
  possible (large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes),
  mainly in the 5pm-10pm window.

- Portions of northern Kansas and perhaps the Highway 81
  corridor in Nebraska have one more chance for severe storms on
  Monday afternoon. The rest of the area will be noticably
  cooler with only a few showers expected.

- Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected through midweek.
  Then we gradually trend warmer (with more rain chances) late
  in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The main concern in this forecast revolves around severe
convection today and on Monday.

Currently, most of the area is in the warm sector, with a cold
front pushing in from the west, and a dryline/triple-point
expected to push in from the southwest this afternoon. The
eastern half of the area should be quite unstable by late
afternoon, the MLCAPE values likely in the 2000-4000 J/kg range.
If anything, CAMs have trended a bit further west with storm
initiation...possibly as early as 4pm...but becoming more likely
by around 5pm in the Highway 281 corridor. Strong deep-layer
shear will be supportive of supercells, potentially merging into
multiple line segments later into the evening hours. Confidence
in coverage is highest in northern parts of the area and
southern portions of the area, areas to the south and east of
Hastings may not

Generally the entire area near/east of Highway 281 has some
threat for tornado today, although the highest risk is expected
to be north and east of Grand Island where low-level shear is
maximized. Sig-tor parameter (STP) values of 5-7+ are forecast
by the RAP/mesoanalysis, which is a quite substantial indicator
of tornado potential.

A storm or two may approach western areas later this evening,
but are expected to weaken as the move into the area in the
8-10pm timeframe. Most of our Nebraska counties should be
storm-free by 8-9pm, but southern portions of the area have
potential for a longer-duration event, with storms continuing
to build near and just north of I-70. If this occurs, localized
flooding is possible (mainly Mitchell/Osborne counties),
although this will depend exactly on where storms setup.

Monday will start off cloudy and relatively cool, with
potentially some showers/drizzle in the morning and early
afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to
develop along the stalled front. Less of the area is expected to
be impacted than today and Saturday, but nevertheless, portions
of northern KS, along with the Hwy 81 corridor could see severe
storms in the 3-8pm timeframe.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm today for
southwestern zones that are expected to see a quick burst of dry
air behind the dryline this afternoon. After today, the overall
fire weather threat is relatively low for the rest of this
week.

Not much time was spent on the longer-range forecast. Temperatures
remain below-normal through midweek, then gradually warm back
up into the Memorial Day weekend. Rain/t-storm chances also
return to the forecast by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over
central Nebraska later this afternoon, although this is more
likely to impact GRI than EAR. Winds also shift to the north-
northwest as a cold front moves into the the area.

Ceilings are expected to fall through tonight, likely becoming
IFR by shortly after sunrise on Monday and persisting through at
least midday. A few showers are also possible Monday morning,
but any additional thunderstorms should remain south/west of
GRI/EAR Monday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083-084.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion