66°F
Updated:
6/25/2026
8:23:27pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
365 FXUS63 KOAX 252319 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and mostly quiet weather continues through Friday, with only a few light showers possible. - Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110 degrees. - Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Today and Tomorrow... Objective analysis and water vapor imagery this afternoon reveal generally zonal flow across much of the central Plains, with a shortwave disturbance pushing toward the Ozark Plateau and a nearly stationary front draped just south of the NE/KS border. Isolated to widely scattered warm air advection driven showers will persist across portions of the area today, with PoPs generally in the 15-30% range. Limited instability (MUCAPE < 250 J/kg), should keep thunder potential low. Rainfall amounts will also be light, with most locations only peaking at a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Persistent cloud cover will hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. A few showers may linger into early Friday morning across southeast NE and southwest IA near the stalled boundary. Calm and mild conditions continue Friday, with a few more breaks in the clouds expected by afternoon. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. A stray shower or storm may graze southeast NE and southwest IA Friday evening into Friday night along a departing surface low and frontal boundary. PoPs currently peak around 15%, as the better moisture and forcing remain to our south. Saturday and Beyond... A pattern shift arrives this weekend into early next week as an amplifying trough digs into the Intermountain West and Front Range, forcing a strengthening ridge into the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, temperatures will climb through the weekend. Saturday highs are expected to rise into the 80s as a warm front advances northward across the region. A few afternoon and evening showers and storms may develop along the lifting warm front, primarily across northeast NE and western IA, where PoPs peak around 15-30%. The brunt of the heat still looks to arrive Sunday and Monday as strong moisture and warm air advection become focused into the region. High temperatures both days are forecast to remain in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Strong southerly low-level flow will bring wind gusts of 25-35 mph while ushering in dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This combination of heat and humidity will pus heat index values into the 100 to 110 degree range. Heat headlines will likely be needed for portions of the area, though confidence remains lower in the exact placement of 105 or 110 degree heat index values. By Monday, a strong mid-level jet streak is forecast to round the base of the western trough and shift into the northern Plains. This should act to damped the ridge somewhat and bring precipitation chances back into the area. From Monday onward, nightly PoPs of 20- 40% remain in the forecast. Plenty of instability is expected to build across the region during the period, though the strong to severe storm potential will likely depend on the timing and placement of shortwave disturbances rounding the trough and providing sufficient forcing for ascent. Confidence in exact timing and location of these features remain low at this range. Most GEFS, EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members show a QPF signal somewhere in or near the area each night. EPS- and GEFS-based machine learning guidance also indicate a 5-15% probability of severe weather Monday through Wednesday. Pattern recognition supports the potential for a nocturnal MCS early next week as a strengthening low-level jet transports rich moistures and elevated instability into the region along the periphery of the ridge. However, confidence in timing and placement remains low and will depend on subtle shortwave timing and upstream convective initiation. Temperatures only take a modest step down Tuesday through the remainder of the work week, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s as mid- to upper-level high pressure remains centered over the Mid-South. Dewpoints will continue to hold in the mid 60s to low 70s, keeping daily maximum heat index values in the 95-105 degree range. Any organized overnight convection could locally temper the heat through cloud cover and outflow, though the broader hot and humid pattern may persist until stronger heights falls arrive. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. A few showers continue to move across the region, but limited impacts are anticipated. OFK may briefly see rain over the next few hours before these dissipate. Little to no rain is expected at OMA and LNK. Winds are light and out of the north and northeast this evening into tonight. Cloud cover will begin to decrease as winds become southeasterly and increase in speed by Friday morning into Friday afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
872 FXUS63 KGID 260023 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 723 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 ...Aviation and Key Messages Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers (maybe a weak thunderstorm in KS?), along with low clouds and possibly light drizzle/light fog will reign over much our forecast area tonight into Friday morning. - Friday brings one last day of seasonably-cool highs only in the 70s before Saturday serves as the "transition day" with highs mainly 80s. - Upper level pattern shift will bring an abrupt arrival of summer heat/humidity Sunday and beyond with highs at least into low-mid 90s...likely serving as a "shock to our systems" in the wake of the ongoing/prolonged cooler stretch. - Along with the heat, moisture surging northward will bring dewpoint values up well into the 60s to even low 70s (especially in our eastern counties). This combo of heat/humidity will drive heat index values to as high as 100-105 especially Sunday/Monday...at least approaching official Heat Advisory criteria. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 For the rest of the day and overnight, scattered off and on showers with very isolated thunder will be present through the evening hours, tapering off overnight and towards Friday morning. The latest guidance, including high-res ensemble guidance keeps the bulk of any additional rainfall to the south and east of the area. There is a potential that Rooks county could be clipped by some stronger activity that slides southeast out of western Nebraska and Kansas and could bring additional water concerns if that does occur, but confidence is not high on that solution. The upper level pattern shifts Friday as an upper low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This causes the Central Plains to be under southwesterly upper level flow with a low developing in the lee of the Rockies. This will cause moist southerly return flow to the region. The tightening gradient will keep winds breezy at times, stronger than we`ve seen for a few days. Likewise, temperatures will be much warmer, with highs quickly returning to the upper 80s and low 90s for Saturday and then 90s will be widespread on Sunday and Monday. Model solutions indicate that 70+ dewpoints will surge back north. The highest dewpoint values will be across eastern Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri, etc. That being said, this will be quite a shock to the system after the cooler past week has been. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are possible especially along and east of Highway 81. Contrastingly, the dryline will set up across western Kansas and the moisture gradient will be visible where the drier air is able to mix out and temps surge even higher...primarily western portions of north central Kansas. As June ends and July begins next week, temperatures look to stay in the 90s while the trough persists out west with ridging to the east of the Plains. Disturbances ejecting out of the upper low in the west could cause a few sporadic precipitation chances to impact the area next week, confidence in any details is low. There is an indication that the pattern will break down towards the end of the work week and holiday weekend begins which could allow for slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances over the holiday weekend. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 722 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including precip potential and winds): By far the main issue/challenge will be to what extent ceilings (and possibly visibility to a lesser/briefer extent) drop below VFR during the period. Confidence is fairly high that at least 10-12 hours of the period will feature at least MVFR ceiling (possibly lower?) and also perhaps at least a few hours of MVFR visibility in light fog/possibly even light drizzle. Aside from any possible light drizzle, chances for any brief/steadier showers overnight appear quite minimal...not high enough for TAF inclusion. Wind-wise, no big concerns to speak of with sustained speeds almost entirely at-or-below 11KT and any gusts mainly under 17KT...as direction gradually shifts from east- northeasterly tonight, to southeasterly Friday afternoon. - Ceiling/visibility details: As has been the case the last few days, especially the ceiling forecast remains of lower confidence. However, unlike the last few days, this TAF period likely features considerably greater potential for several hours of sub-VFR ceiling (along with perhaps at least a few hours of sub-VFR visibility). Right out of the gate this evening, high-end MVFR clouds are flirting with KEAR, but expect this to be brief/unsustained. Much higher chances for MVFR arrive around 08-09Z...possibly also accompanied by MVFR visibility in light fog/possible drizzle especially at KEAR. Some guidance suggests that ceiling could even drop to IFR/LIFR levels at least intermittently especially 09-16Z, but with "mixed signals" on ceiling dropping this low have only "hinted" at IFR with scattered groups. Ceiling category uncertainty actually lingers right on through Friday afternoon, as although TAFs currently call for a return to VFR around 20Z with lower clouds scattering out, some guidance holds onto a high-end MVFR ceiling right on through 00Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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