70°F
Updated:
7/6/2026
01:46:58am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
240 FXUS63 KOAX 060510 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog may develop once again early Monday morning. - Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday with dry conditions. - Thunderstorm chances return to northeast Nebraska late Tuesday night, with better chances across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. - A prolonged period of heat is expected this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Monday will be very "July" in that the high and low temperatures in the upper 80s and upper 60s should be very close to normal values for this date. It will be slightly warmer in western parts of the forecast area, sneaking into the lower 90s. Expect a south breeze, but nothing over 20 mph, and no precipitation. Tuesday`s conditions will be quite similar to Monday. Late Tuesday, model agreement is strong in a weak mid/upper level disturbance moving through the zonal flow pattern in the Dakotas. This will orient a weak surface front from northeast CO into southeast SD by late evening, and it may drift into northeast NE overnight. This could support a few storms, but the wind profiles are very weak south of the NE/SD border, so it would probably be a struggle to get anything severe other than the southern fringes of any potential MCS passing well to the north. All in all, late Tuesday doesn`t look like much of a severe threat at this time, but something to keep an eye on. That front sags south on Wednesday and stalls in the forecast area while another weak short wave trough and modest upper jet max have a glancing influence. This should set the stage for a round or two of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday morning At least moderate instability looks likely , and wind shear profiles may be sufficient to support some storm organization. The high moisture content along with a slow moving frontal boundary suggest heavy rain potential as well, possibly lingering into Thursday night if the front remains in the vicinity. As we move into the weekend and beyond, all signs point to heat. A substantial upper level ridge will build over the Four Corners region with strong agreement amongst ensemble guidance that this heat dome will build east over the Central Plains by early next week, likely leading to some of the hottest air of the year. The 8-14 day outlook also looks warmer than normal with a gradual bit of a cooling trend toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Light winds will allow fog development in southwest Iowa. Expect to see some reduced visibility at Eppley over the course of the next few hours. By 7am, visibility may be near 1 mile as indicated by the KOMA TAF. Otherwise expect calm/southeast 5 knot winds and clear skies. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Nicolaisen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
825 FXUS63 KGID 060454 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and Seasonal for the first half of the work week. - Best potential for additional precipitation Wednesday - Friday, with Wednesday having the highest potential (30-60%) chance. - Indications that Temperatures will heating up beginning next weekend, with extreme heat possible the week of July 12th. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The first part of the work-week is seasonal and dry. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Upper ridging will build in to the Central Plains from the Four Corners region for the first half of the work-week. A strong disturbance moving atop the ridge will break it down and upper level flow will become more zonal by midweek. The return to more zonal type flow will allow for an increase precipitation chances for the second half of the work-week. Lee troughing will cause a front to develop across the high plains. Model ensemble guidance indicates that the next upper wave will approach the area on Wednesday with the best precipitation potential (40-60% chance) on Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. The potential for precipitation exists for Thursday and Friday, but with less confidence. Thursday the best chances for precipitation look to be along the High Plains sliding southeast into Kansas with a 25-50% chance for central, south central and north central Kansas. It will depend on where an upper level disturbance tracks across the Central Plains. By Friday the potential for precipitation is closer to 20% for the area as the upper disturbance moves off to the east. As this occurs, ridging builds into the west. During the second half of the work week, temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, which is near to slightly below normal for early/mid July. Moving into the end of the forecast period, next weekend, and beyond. Much of the model guidance including the ensemble guidance indicates a potentially significant heat wave. This is due to a high amplitude ridge building into the intermountain west. Ensemble mean Maximum Temperatures move close to the triple digit mark, especially as we move into the next work-week. Details will change, but current grand ensemble values show 20% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday the 13th, and 40% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on the 14th. This period is something to watch for extreme heat. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will range from the southeast to south generally between 5 to 15 knots. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Schuldt
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