Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

998
FXUS63 KOAX 082321
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will continue this afternoon before transitioning to
  light snow this evening. Snow accumulations will range from a
  trace to around an inch.

- A low (15-30%) chance for additional light snow exists across
  southeast Nebraska Friday night, with spotty snow showers
  reducing visibility possible Friday (20% chance).

- Temperatures rebound early next week, with highs returning to
  the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a
mid-level trough advancing into the central and southern Plains,
with an associated surface low lifting into northeast Kansas and
expected to track northeast across Iowa into Wisconsin tonight.
North of the surface low, a broad shield of precipitation continues
to overspread much of the region (PoPs 80-100%). A TROWAL and
attendant deformation zone are supporting pockets of heavier showers
across southeast NE and southwest IA. Modest elevated instability
may be sufficient to produce a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon
across far southeast NE and southwest IA, though this chance will
diminish steadily though the remainder of the afternoon.

Total precipitation amounts are expected to peak in the 0.75-1.00"
range across southeast NE & southwest IA, with amounts decreasing
north and west of this corridor. The primary concern later this
evening will be a transition from rain to snow as colder air
filters in from the north and precipitation tapers off from west
to east. Areas along and north of I-80 are most likely (60-80%
chance, per the HREF) to experience a brief rain/snow mix or a
changeover to snow prior to the end of precipitation, with a
trace to around one inch possible. A few localized spots could
exceed one inch should temperatures fall more rapidly than
currently forecast, though confidence in this outcome remains
low (about 20% chance).

Precipitation is expected to fully exit the area by midnight to 2
AM, with overnight lows falling into the 20s. Attention will then
turn to the potential for residual moisture to freeze on untreated
roads and sidewalks, leading to slick spots, particularly during the
Friday morning commute. Temperatures will rebound Friday afternoon,
with highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s.

Looking ahead, an additional shortwave trough is forecast to pivot
across Kansas and Oklahoma on Friday. Model guidance remains in good
agreement that the bulk of the associated precipitation will remain
south of the forecast area. However, a light rain/snow mix
can`t be ruled out across far southeast NE and southwest IA
Friday night, with low-end PoPs in the 15-30% range. Any
accumulations would be minimal given limited QPF (under 

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

135
FXUS63 KGID 082349
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will switch over to snow across much of the area late
  this afternoon and evening with precipitation coming to an end
  for the majority of the local area by midnight.

- Up to a slushy inch of snow will be possible in spots this
  evening, but many locations will see little to no snowfall
  accumulation at all as air temperatures will remain near to
  above freezing until precipitation comes to an end by
  midnight.

- A couple of nuisance precipitation chances Friday (mainly KS)
  and Saturday (mainly north of HWY 92) with more seasonal
  temperatures through Saturday. Near to above normal
  temperatures and predominantly dry weather expected for the
  remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

An area of low pressure can be seen circulating on radar across
Northeastern Kansas this afternoon. A large shield of stratiform
precipitation on the backside of this low has provided steady
light rain event across much of the area today, with a few
snowflakes mixing in at spots the past hour or so. Expect
precipitation to gradually change over to light snow from
northwest to southeast as we continue through the remainder of
the afternoon/early evening hours as cooler air continues to
advect southeast across the area behind this system. While the
cooler air advecting in aloft will support snow, surface
temperatures will likely remain near to above freezing through
around midnight, and given the thawed out soils, have a hard
time imagining much accumulation will be possible outside a few
brief, heavier bands of precipitation, if they materialize at
all. The NAM and NAMnest have not surprisingly backed off on
snowfall potential with this system as they come into better
agreement with other mesoscale models such as the HRRR, which
indicate around an inch or so of snowfall accumulation will be
possible across mainly the Tri-cities area. While this still
seems likely too high of a snowfall total given the
precipitation rate and antecedent conditions, will continue to
advertise up to an inch of slushy snowfall accumulation through
around midnight in the HWO.

As this system pushes further east overnight, expect
temperatures to fall by daybreak Friday as some partial clearing
is realized, with morning temps expected to be mostly in the
lower to mid-20s to start the day. Aloft, expect the subsequent
upper level disturbance lifting out of the southwest to mainly
pass south of the local area Friday, brining only a small
chance of light precip to mainly north central Kansas, slightly
out of phase with a reinforcing shot of cooler air reaching the
area from the northwest Friday afternoon/night. A weak
disturbance in northwest flow could then bring some very light
snow across our far north (mainly north of HWY 92) Saturday,
which should be just a glancing blow with little to no snowfall
accumulation. Temperatures, however, will likely be impacted,
with more seasonable temperatures remaining in the forecast
through Sunday morning, when temperatures will start to rebound
thanks to southwesterly surface flow returning and rising
heights aloft, eventually resulting in above/well above normal
temperatures returning through at least next Thursday.

While upper level ridging is forecast to start next week, a pair
of upper level disturbance could clip the local area in
north/northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a brief dip
in temperatures (although still above normal) to the area on
Wednesday along with some very small chances for precip Tue/Wed.
While most ensemble members are dry over this period, the
official blended forecast does have some small POPS for areas
north and east of the Nebraska Tri-Cities Tuesday into
Wednesday, but this should be another glancing blow with little
to no precipitation accumulation anticipated at this time.

Beyond Wednesday, north to northwesterly flow is expected to
continue across the local area aloft, with additional passing
disturbances late next week/weekend. While these do not appear
like major precipitation makers given their trajectory and model
data, it could mark the beginning of a more prolonged period of
near or below normal temperatures returning to the local area
starting around the 16th of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Light rain/snow mix may briefly tranisition to all snow for an
hour or two before ending 02-04Z from W to E. With the end of
the precipitation should come a return to VFR conditions fairly
quickly. VFR conditions likely to persist through the remainder
of this forecast period.

Gusty N winds will continue this evening, then gradually weaken
overnight. Winds will remain out of the N-NW tonight through
Friday, with speeds mostly in the 8-13kt range. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion