Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

015
FXUS63 KOAX 230503
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1103 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain warmer than normal through at least
  Friday.

- Some uncertainty has developed in Thursday`s high temperature
  forecast. Numbers may depend on cloud cover.

- Dry weather continues through the 7-day forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a broad ridge
stretched from coast to coast across the CONUS this afternoon.
Temperatures are primarily in the 50s with some 60s expected to
mix in before the diurnal curve begins to point down.

A cold front slipping south across North Dakota is beginning to
initiate some mixed p-type showers, letting us easily track
it`s location. That front will push into the northwest corner of
the CWA around midnight tonight and finish its pass through the
area by daybreak. Expect lows to range from near freezing to
mid-30s.

.TUESDAY...

The cold front will help knock the ridge down some, but it will
be temporary. We`ll still be well above late December norms.
Tuesday`s highs will change very little along the Kansas state
line, but points farther north should anticipate an overall drop
of 10-15 degrees compared to Monday`s highs.

.WEDNESDAY...

The ridging redevelops its large foothold on Wednesday with the
axis focused just east of the Front Range and western Nebraska.
Our temps will rebound. Expect numbers similar to those of
today (fabulous 50s).

.CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY)...

Wouldn`t you know it, this is the day with some uncertainty. The
ridge axis should be nearly directly over the mid-Missouri River
valley and the Omaha metro, suggesting warmer than normal
conditions. Thankfully, confidence remains high (90%) on the
area remaining dry, but some guidance (especially members of the
EPS) is now developing some cloud cover in response to the
weakest little shortwave pushing through northern Missouri.
Blink and you`ll miss it. (Did the GFS blink?) EC-ENS is
producing a lot of cooler solutions for the holiday. The NBM has
begun to drop expected highs as a result. The GEFS and GEPS
remain enthusiastic about the unseasonable warmth. With
collaboration of neighboring offices, have pushed the NBM`s sfc
temps up a bit to prevent a yo-yo-ing of the forecast should the
EC`s cooler solution disappear with the next few runs.
Personally, I think it`s time to start buying in to this cooler
forecast. If it materializes, we`d end up with more common 40s
for Christmas highs instead of the possible record heat in the
going forecast. The EC even tries to produce a little light
precip (rain shower or drizzle) in west-central Iowa, though
PoPs are negligible at this time (10%).

.THE WEEKEND...

A cold front slashes through the Corn Belt on Saturday,
delivering breezy northwesterly winds and knocking temps down
for the weekend. By Sunday and Monday, temps are expected to be
near seasonal norms (30s). Unfortunately for those worried about
worsening drought, the atmosphere looks too dry for that front
to wring any moisture out of it. Can`t squeeze hydrometeors
from a turnip. This is probably good news for a host of post-
holiday travelers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with winds
currently shifting from the south-southwest to northwesterly
while remaining at less than 10 kts. High clouds continue to
waft overhead, with no ceiling restrictions expected through the
next 24 hours. Over the course of late tomorrow morning through
the afternoon and evening tomorrow, winds will slowly be turning
northeasterly and evenutally becoming east-southeasterly while
maintaining lower speeds. Fog potential is staying stead for
Wednesday morning, but is not expected to develop until after
06z Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

128
FXUS63 KGID 230000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall forecast continues to look incredibly mild and "quiet"
  for late December, with near-record to perhaps record- warmth
  possible late week. See separate CLIMATE section below for
  details.

- The only real "forecast challenge" to speak of in the near
  term is the potential for fog and/or stratus to affect
  portions of the forecast area Christmas eve/day and prevent
  record breaking warmth.

- The entire 7-day remains void of any official rain/snow
  chances, although there are at least hints that a somewhat-
  strong cold frontal passage this weekend bears watching for
  very light/minimal precip potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

As of 2PM CST, entire region remains devoid of significant
cloud cover under shortwave ridging and dry SW to W low to mid
level flow. The plentiful sunshine, combined with steady
downsloping SW-W flow, is allowing temperatures to really spike
this afternoon, particularly over extreme W portions of the
area. In fact, latest temperatures have climbed into the lower
70s in these areas, and even warmer mid to upper 70s lie just a
little further W. Fortunately, the warmth is coming without
significant wind magnitude, so fire weather concerns remain
pleasantly low. This is often not the case considering the
magnitude of warmth for this time of year.

Quiet and dry weather will continue this evening and overnight,
despite the passage of a moderately strong cold front. Winds
will turn Nrly late tonight and bring in some noticeably cooler
high temperatures for Tuesday. However, latest forecast of mid
50s to lower 60s is still a solid 15-20 degrees above normal,
and once again, the brunt of the daytime hours should be void of
significant wind (only 5-10 MPH).

As mentioned in previous discussions, still looking at the
potential for low level moisture - either in the form of stratus
or even fog - to push in from central/eastern KS at some point
Christmas Eve into Christmas Day and "mess" with temperatures.
FWIW, latest deterministic EC is a little more "veered" with the
low level flow, which could spare at least some of the area
(would mostly likely be W half) from the stratus/fog, though
other guidance (such as, not surprisingly, the NAM) are further
W and more widespread with the fog/stratus. These shallow low-
level pockets of moisture are notoriously difficult to pin down,
esp 2-3+ days out, as small changes in wind direction can
significantly impact mixing potential at a time when the sun
angle is at its lowest. There will also likely be a substantial
temperature inversion between 1-3K ft AGL thanks to well-
established elevated mixed layer (advected off the front range)
that can further complicate the picture. So...we`re looking at
either most sunny skies and near-record warmth, or substantial
low clouds and/or fog and cooler, but still above-average
temps...or a combination of both depending on where you are from
W to E in the region. Regardless, travel impacts should be
minimal compared to what they CAN BE this time of year. FWIW,
the official forecast/NBM have trended a few degrees cooler,
which seems reasonable even IF the stratus/fog don`t materialize
given weak low level flow/mixing. So record warmth on Christmas
appears increasingly less likely, but still quite mild.

Friday, though, continues to trend warmer. In fact, latest NBM
jumped temps a solid 3-5 degrees, which now places it as the day
with greatest chances for record warmth this week - in both low
and high temps.

A stronger cold front is slated to arrive in latest guidance
sometime this weekend - most likely later in the day Saturday or
Saturday night. This front could bring a solid 20-25 degree
drop in highs from Saturday to Sunday, which sounds "extreme",
but really it`s just bringing us back to "normal". Can`t totally
rule some very light precipitation along or behind the front,
but latest 50 member EPS continues to indicate very low chances
(10-20%) for anything measurable (>0.01"), so the forecast this
far out officially remains dry. Both EPS and GEFS indicate
another bump in temps in time for New Years, then another modest
cool down for first few days of 2026. Signal for any sort of
significant precip continues to be almost non-existent in at
least the 7-10 day range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few high-level clouds will not be expected to impact ceilings
or any flight categories through the period. Winds will remain
on the lighter side (mainly less than 10kts) with directions
starting out of the south this evening. Overnight, these winds
will veer towards the north before becoming easterly for
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-26:
Although near-record to POSSIBLY record-warmth is still
forecast for Dec. 24-26 (both high temps and warm low/minimum
temps), particularly high temps for Dec. 24-25 continue to
gradually trend cooler, owing to the increasing possibility that
shallow low clouds and/or light winds/limited mixing limits
afternoon heating potential. We`re essentially at solar minimum,
so it just doesn`t take much to throw a potentially record high
off track. With that said, Friday now looks to be one of the
warmer days of the week and now lies within reach for both
record highs and lows at both Grand Island and Hastings.

Below is where our latest forecast vs. existing records stand
for Grand Island and Hastings airports, the two NWS-maintained
sites for which we issue official Record Event Reports
(RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that * indicates that our forecast
would tie or break an existing record:


RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES               | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 64 in 2021                | Forecast: 60
December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922      | Forecast: 60
December 26: 64 in 2005                | Forecast: 64*
---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 66 in 1933                | Forecast: 60
December 25: 62 in 1999,1950           | Forecast: 59
December 26: 65 in 2005                | Forecast: 65*

_________________________________________________________

RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES   | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 34 in 1936                | Forecast: 32
December 25: 34 in 1959                | Forecast: 33
December 26: 38 in 1931                | Forecast: 39*
---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 33 in 2005,1955           | Forecast: 33*
December 25: 34 in 1922                | Forecast: 33
December 26: 38 in 1959                | Forecast: 40*

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion