Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

392
FXUS63 KOAX 262331
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm chances return this afternoon into early
  Monday. All severe weather hazards will be possible,
  especially in southeast Nebraska.

- Training storms could produce heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa overnight.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected next week with little to
  no additional chances for precipitation forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A complex storm system will bring multiple chances for storms and
potentially severe weather to the region today and into Monday. A
shortwave pushing across south western Kansas will help induce a low
pressure system out of the Rockies today. By 7 AM, storms began
firing over west-central Kansas, ahead of the approaching shortwave.
And continued to push east northeast into northeast Kansas, with
widely scattered showers and storms beginning to spread across the
forecast area this afternoon. Storms are expected to continue to
advance toward southeast Nebraska. While the best chance for severe
weather will lie just south of the Nebraska/Kansas border, a few
storms north of the border may be capable of producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts.

Behind this initial round of storms, the developing surface low is
progged to track northeast towards southeast Nebraska, with another
round of storms developing around mid night and continuing into the
overnight hours. Storms will progress across northern Kansas into
southwest Iowa, bringing the another round of strong to severe
weather across southeast Nebraska during the early hours of Monday
morning. Once again large hail and damaging winds will likely be the
main threats, with a tornado or two possible. Additionally, several
rounds of potentially training storms over southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa could bring increased risk of flash flooding,
especially to urban and low-lying areas. Therefore, a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for this evening through Monday morning.

Our third and final round of showers and storms will come Monday
morning into the early afternoon. This convection appears to stem
from a reinforcing cold front associated with a lobe of low
pressure, just to the northwest of the main system, and interacting
with the surface low to our southeast. With the timing of this
round, instability could be lacking early Monday morning, however a
stray strong or severe storm can`t be entirely ruled out. The best
chance for a severe storm currently looks to remain across southeast
Nebraska into southwest Iowa, near the axis of instability and where
shear vectors are strongest.

Storms finally exit the forecast area early Monday evening. Looking
ahead, temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal normals
through the upcoming week. A few weak shortwaves may bring us off
and on low chances for showers and storms, but primarily dry weather
is expected to prevail through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Convection is currently pushing out of the area at this time,
but redevelopment is expected after dark. Have removed storm
mention at KOFK due to uncertainty with timing and northern
extent of the coverage. Have limited the window of convection at
KOMA and KLNK to mostly overnight hours. Otherwise, concern
will be lower cigs and reduced visibility due to patchy fog and
rainfall. Have all three sites going to IFR category and KOFK
slipping LIFR by 03Z Monday.

Weak southeasterly winds now will become northwesterly early
Monday morning with gusts near 25-30 knots expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NEZ068-090>093.
IA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

092
FXUS63 KGID 262243
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dwindling severe weather threat today and tonight, esp. for
  south central Nebraska. Portions of northern Kansas may still
  be under some severe threat overnight, but even this is
  trending lower.

- Scattered showers and generally weak thunderstorms may persist
  into Monday AM, mainly along and E of Hwy 281. Severe threat
  on Monday should remain east of the local area.

- The rest of the forecast is chilly with off and on chances for
  light moisture.

- The main concern for the upcoming work week will be frequent
  opportunities for frost and freeze conditions, most notably
  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Bottom line regarding the severe threat today and tonight is
that is decreasing quite a bit. Can`t say with certainty that
there won`t still be some strong/severe storms over mainly
portions of northern Kansas tonight, but even this is looking
increasingly unlikely owing to lack of deep instability.

Expect a nice lull rest of this afternoon and into the evening
thanks to subsidence behind the earlier wave. It will remain
very dreary and chilly though with no impetus for low level
mixing to increase and help scatter out the widespread stratus.
Timing for the next round looks to be around and after midnight
and into early Monday AM. Forcing and shear/kinematics will be
there for severe storms, but latest HRRR runs keep any MUCAPE
>1000 J/kg south of the NE/KS state line...and the nose of the
more substantial (>2000 J/kg) MUCAPE closer to I-70. My gut
tells me areas from around Stockton to Hebron S and E still have
a non- zero chance for some severe storms with this round...but
probably only a hail threat. Forecast soundings from the Beloit
area show a very stable lowest 4K ft, with most/all of the CAPE
increase noted in the 4-7K ft layer. This would make
tornadogenesis and even damaging winds VERY difficult to
achieve. A strengthening LLJ will help feed the uptick in
convective coverage/strength late tonight, and appears it will
veer E of the area by sunrise (probably even by 09Z). Off and on
scattered elevated convection could persist for central and
eastern areas through the morning as the primary core of the
upper trough swings through.

Obviously will continue to monitor observations and trends...but
in my experience, such widespread coverage of such cold/stable
conditions locally and in the immediate upstream airmass is not
conducive to significant severe weather. Some hail threat from
elevated storms persists until the entire trough passes through,
but finding it increasingly difficult to message any sort of
damaging wind and tornado threat given the latest trends.

May need to add some add some sprinkles to the forecast for
tomorrow afternoon/early evening for northern areas. Steep low
level lapse rates and strong cold air advection could support
some decent cu/stratocu.

Models continue to indicate a band of light precipitation
(probably mostly rain, can`t rule out some wet snow) moving in
from the W Monday night, and continuing into the day on Tuesday.
The associated cloud cover and weak low level mixing will keep
highs cool in the 50s. This could set the stage for relatively
widespread frost and freeze conditions Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as clouds clear out and winds remain light.
Sub-freezing temperatures are currently most likely for the
Tri-Cities, north and west. However, even Beloit/Hebron could
fall into the mid 30s and support frost formation.

Additional off and on rain chances continue into Wednesday and
Thursday, but haven`t spent a lot of time looking into the
specifics. Even without the showers, it looks to remain cool for
the entire work week with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the
upper 20s/30s. At least patchy frost could develop each night
through Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud/wind
details that are impossible to pin down this far out. Just keep
that in mind in case you have planted your gardens and pots
already. Hopefully, we can get back to more seasonable 70s next
weekend. Fingers crossed...next weekend should also be dry and
just overall more pleasant than this weekend has been.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR ceilings will persist through through tonight, with ceilings
only slowly improving to MVFR on Monday. Patchy fog/mist is also
expected at times through sunrise on Monday.

The potential for thunderstorms continues to decrease. A few
rumbles of thunder cannot be completely ruled out in the 06-18Z
timeframe, but for the most part it should just be rain showers.

Light ENE winds turn to the northwest early Monday morning and
increase. Gusts near 30kts are expected Monday afternoon.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion