Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

633
FXUS63 KOAX 201922
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
122 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog redeveloping tonight.

- Rain chances increasing to 40-80% late tonight and Friday
  south of I-80.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend with increasing
  rain chances (40-70%) Monday.

- Temperatures trending cooler next week with highs in the 30s
  forecast for Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Tonight and Friday:

A negatively tilted short-wave trough over the southern Rockies
this afternoon is forecast to weaken as it progresses northeast
into an increasingly confluent mid-level flow pattern in place
from the central Plains into mid-MS Valley. At the surface, an
associated area of low pressure over the eastern TX panhandle
into western OK will develop into southeast KS by Friday morning
before accelerating east through southern MO. A weak boundary
which moved into our area last night will shift into KS and MO,
where it will link with the migratory surface low.

A relatively moist, low-level air mass present both ahead of
and behind the weak boundary contributed to considerable fog
development earlier today with visibilities gradually improving
as of early afternoon. Associated cloud cover remains fairly
widespread with today`s high temperatures adjusted lower to
account for it`s presence. A slightly drier air mass will work
its way into the northern part of our area tonight with fog
development/continuation most likely along and south of I-80.

Late tonight into Friday, strengthening low/mid-level
frontogenetical forcing ahead of the approaching short-wave
trough will support increasing rain chances (maximum PoPs of
40-80%) for locations south of I-80. Most of the precipitation
will be light, but some 0.25-0.50" totals are possible near the
KS border. Widespread clouds and areas of rain will limit
daytime heating Friday with highs in the 40s.


This Weekend:

Another mid/upper-level low is projected to move into Baja and
the Desert Southwest Saturday before shifting northeast into the
central and southern Rockies Sunday. Some amplification of a
downstream ridge over the central Plains is forecast with
southerly surface winds drawing a warmer air mass into the
region with highs in the 50s to low 60s.


Next Week:

The Rockies system mentioned above is forecast to shift into the
central Plains Monday with PoPs increasing to 40-70%. A higher-
latitude short-wave trough is expected amplify on the immediate
heels of the lead system across the northern and central Plains
Monday night into Tuesday, supporting the movement of a stronger
cold front through the area at that time. Highs mainly in the
50s Monday are forecast to fall into the 40s and 50s Tuesday, 30s
and 40s Wednesday, with 30s expected on Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog and LIFR ceilings have become more widespread and lasted
longer than earlier model forecasts. However, latest model data
have adjusted to these observations, and have trended in a much
more pessimistic direction with respect to visibilities, and
moreso, ceiling heights for the remainder of today through
tonight. It does appear that a period of VFR conditions are
possible at KOFK late this afternoon into early evening.
Otherwise, the model data suggest that LIFR conditions will
likely continue into Friday morning. The chance of light rain
will increase toward the end of the forecast period at KLNK.
Winds will continue from the north or northeast at less than 12
kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

120
FXUS63 KGID 202117
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
317 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of patchy dense fog possible after midnight
  tonight. The focus of this fog should be across our south
  central Nebraska counties.

- The first significant rainfall event since late October will
  spread north across the local area this evening/overnight.
  Most areas will see some rainfall, but the focus will be south
  of I-80 with the highest totals anticipated across north
  central Kansas.

- Fantastic late fall weather anticipated for this weekend with
  highs in the 60s, light winds, and mostly sunny skies
  (especially Saturday).

- The next system will bring a chance of precip back to the
  area Sunday evening through Monday, with the beginning of a
  prolonged period of below normal temperatures starting
  Thanksgiving eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where
persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures
down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the
extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially
obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest,
the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding,
which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once
the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus
to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some
patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night.
Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some
dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our
Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon
HWO.

For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover
spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level
low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift
northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading
precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of
this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were
advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get
some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus
remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards
I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with
precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the
Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If
this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant
rainfall in almost a month across much of the area!

In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for
Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the
lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived,
however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly
sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back
above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend.

Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out
of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the
area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light
rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything,
this system has continued to track just a bit further north,
meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the
most favored areas will be across our south and east.

After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall
pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a
northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting
up across the plains for potentially an extended period of
time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble
members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early
as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Generally poor conditions...with LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS will
persist for another couple of hours before LIFR CIGS scatter
out and a few hours of VFR conditions (with lots of high level
clouds) returns around 20/21Z. CIGS will again thicken up this
evening as a disturbance approaches from the southwest, with
MVFR CIGS returning by 21/03Z...with some light rain and reduced
VSBYS becoming possible around daybreak.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion