Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

277
FXUS63 KOAX 170510
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated slick spots may exist early this morning from
  lingering moisture refreezing on area roads.

- 20 to 45% chance for rain/snow mix continues this morning into
  the afternoon for areas primarily north of I-80. A few areas
  in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa could see some
  sleet/freezing rain before transitioning to rain (10-15%
  chance). Snowfall amounts remain under an inch.

- Warming trend expected through the weekend with highs in the
  80s by Friday and Saturday. Temperature records may be broken
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis shows an elongated 1024 mb sfc ridge in
place over the forecast area. While winds have finally subsided,
cold temperatures remain in place with METARs reporting temperatures
in the low to mid teens. Given the light winds, wind chills will not
be as frigid compared to Monday morning, but still should see values
hovering slightly above and below 0F. A few slick spots may remain
on area roadways from melted precip refreezing, so be a bit cautious
while heading out the door this morning.

An H8 baroclinic zone will swing through the forecast area
throughout the day with warm advection helping push temperatures to
the mid 30s in western Iowa, to mid to upper 40s over our far west.
Winds will also become gusty from the south at 25 to 30 mph. The
lift provided by the low level warm advection combined with a stream
of H7-H5 Pacific moisture will lead to some precipitation developing
across the area, primarily over far northeast Nebraska into west-
central Iowa. However, questions remain on how much of this precip,
if any, is able to reach the sfc.

Forecast soundings show mid level saturation but rapid drying from
just above H8 to the sfc for much of the forecast area throughout
the day. If the column is able to fully moisten, temperatures
should be cool enough in the morning hours to support snow.
However, as the baroclinic zone swings northeast, forecast
soundings show a warm nose developing. While sfc temperatures
are expected to gradually warm to above freezing throughout the
day, locations in far northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa
may still hang on to subfreezing temps for a while, so could see
a brief period of sleet/freezing rain (10-15% chance) in those
areas before a full transition to rain. Again, low level dry air
may hamper how much, if any, precip is able to reach the sfc.
Have opted to cut back PoPs a bit from newest NBM guidance to
20-45% for this forecast update for areas primarily north of
I-80, while the highest PoPs remain confined to far northeast
Nebraska into west-central Iowa. PoPs enter northeast Nebraska
after 12z and largely exit the area by 00z. Snow accumulations
will remain light with latest 00z HREF suggesting only a 10 to
30% chance for greater than 0.1 inches northeast of a line from
Verdigre to Pender to Red Oak, IA. The most recent 00z
deterministic CAM guidance also suggests the majority of
snowfall barely grazing the northeastern portions of our service
area. Any rainfall amounts will be very light at a hundredth of
an inch at best too.

Wednesday will see dry conditions as sfc high pressure approaches
the area from the south, while thicknesses gradually start to
increase helping to set the stage for our warming trend. Highs warm
to the 60s to low 70s over our far west, while lows cool to the
upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

1000-500mb thicknesses are progged to build and track east into much
of the Central and Northern Plains areas. Widespread 70s are in
store for much of the area Thursday (far southwest areas may hit
80F), while widespread 80s are expected for Friday and Saturday.
Records at Norfolk (81F), Lincoln (80F), and Omaha (78F) could be
broken Friday. The dry conditions combined with breezy 20 to 25 mph
winds may lead to areas of high to very high fire danger for Friday
and Saturday.

By Sunday, a shortwave trof will eject southeast from southern
Alberta, helping squash the 590dam high over the southwest US. A
front moves through the area helping cool temperatures back to the
60s areawide Sunday, and to the 50s for Monday. PoPs for the long
term period remain less than 12% with this update so expect the dry
weather to persist.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with mid/high-level clouds increasing overnight into
Tuesday. There is a 20-30% chance of light snow and/or light
freezing rain at KOFK between 15z-19z; however, confidence in
that occurrence is currently too low to include in the forecast.
Light and variable winds become light southeast overnight before
strengthening to 12-14 kt with gusts of 19-29 kt by 15z-16z.
Winds then diminish to below 12 kt Tuesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

754
FXUS63 KGID 170741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
241 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for critical fire weather
  today along and west of a line from Alma to Kearney to Ord.
  See the Fire Weather section below.

- Some flurries/sprinkles are possible in northeast parts of the
  area today, but no accumulation is expected.

- Warm and dry conditions persist through the rest of the
  workweek. Temperatures trend closer to normal early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Precipitation chances for today have continued to trend
downward, largely thanks to the dry airmass at the surface. A
few flurries/sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but the vast
majority will remain completely dry.

Increased cloud cover over our east, and a warm front arriving
from the west will result in a wide range in temperatures today.
Some spots near/east of Highway 81 may remain the 40s, while
areas near/west of Highway 183 may see temperatures near 70
degrees this afternoon. Winds will start the day out of the
south, gradually turning to the southwest. Near-term models
still indicate a sharper shift to stronger northwesterly winds
arriving from the west ~3-4pm.

There is continued high confidence in dry conditions through the
rest of the week, and record-breaking temperatures looks
increasingly likely...especially for Friday and Saturday.

Global ensembles favor a "cooldown" (still probably near to
above normal) early next week. The potential for precipitation
still looks spotty...at best.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A chilly March afternoon across the region today as despite
mostly sunny skies, a cold airmass lingered behind yesterdays
cold front. Gusty north winds have also not helped out wind
chills, with wind gusts of 30 to 35 MPH being observed across
the region this afternoon. Given the gusty winds and dry
airmass, elevated fire weather concerns remain mainly southwest
of a line from Kearney to Hebron, with current RH values in the
range of 20 to 25 percent at several locations.

Expect winds to diminish fairly rapidly this evening as they
shift and become more southerly overnight, in response to an
approaching trough from the northwest. All signs point to this
front being mostly dry for the local area, with only the
smallest chances (15-25%) for a light rain/snow shower
northeast of the Tri-cities Tuesday. Despite the increased
clouds...temperatures will still climb significantly across the
region tomorrow as a warm front crosses from the west. This will
likely lead to a sharp gradient in temperatures across the
area, with enough warming to justify fire weather headlines for
areas primarily west of Highway 281 earlier today.

Behind this system, expect further warming through the rest of
the week as high pressure builds aloft and temperatures climb
into the 80s for the middle/latter portion of the week.
Thankfully, with high pressure aloft, the pressure gradient near
the surface appears on the weaker side, so very strong winds are
not anticipated. That said, with dry fuels, low RH values and
warm temperatures, would not be surprised if additional fire
weather headlines will be needed later this week.

After a 3 day period of near/record warmth, expect a glancing
blow from a cold front to our north to help knock down
temperatures closer to climo for Sunday and Monday, along with
the potential for some gusty winds (40+ mph) next Sunday. At
this point, no precipitation is expected locally with this front
and ensembles look fairly bleak, precipitation wise, through at
least day 10.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95%) VFR conditions through the period. Cloud
cover will increase into Tuesday morning, but cloud bases should
remain above 6-8kft.

South winds increase after sunrise, and will turn more westerly
through the afternoon hours. Lighter west-northwesterly winds
continue into Tuesday night, and a period of LLWS is possible
after around 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The primary fire weather threat for today will occur in areas
near and west of a line from Alma to Kearney to Ord as winds
shift to the west-northwest this afternoon. Ahead of this shift,
southwest winds may occasionally gust 20-30 MPH, with more
persistent gusts of 25-35 MPH arriving after the wind shift.
Humidity will not be as low as what we`ve seen on previous days,
and portions of this area may see humidity remain 25 percent or
higher...especially if clouds can hang around.

The overall fire weather threat decreases for Wednesday through
Friday. Despite potential record-breaking temperatures and very
low humidity, sustained winds are unlikely to exceed 20 MPH on a
widespread basis over central Nebraska/Kansas.

Stronger winds then potentially return for Saturday/Sunday,
potentially leading to more Red-Flag conditions for portions of
the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

As temperatures climb into the 80s later this week, a few record
warm temperatures could be in jeopardy across the local area.

Thursday March 19          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        79               84 (1921)
Grand Island                    79               86 (1921)

Friday March 20            Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        84               82 (1939)
Grand Island                    84               84 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        87               87 (1910)
Grand Island                    86               83 (1988)

In addition, record warm minimum temperatures will also be
possible Friday and Saturday.

Friday March 20            Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        46               46 (2011)
Grand Island                    46               50 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        48               47 (2012)
Grand Island                    48               54 (1911)

Temperature records for Hastings date back to 1907 and they
date back to 1895 for Grand Island.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082-083.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels
CLIMATE...Mangels/Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion