67°F
Updated:
7/22/2026
5:56:33pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
091 FXUS63 KOAX 221721 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s. - The heaviest rainfall is expected overnight tonight and Thursday night, with totals approaching 1 to 2 inches in southeast Nebraska. - Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show a mid- level high centered near the Red River, with the region positioned along the northern periphery of the associated ridge. Meanwhile, an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS has brought northwesterly flow aloft and ushered CAA into the area. This, combined with widespread cloud cover, has kept afternoon temperatures to the 70s. A shortwave disturbance moving across the region has supported low- level moisture transport and weak WAA across central and eastern Nebraska, resulting in scattered showers and PoPs of 30-50%. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, particularly across southeast Nebraska, where weak but sufficient instability of 300-400 J/kg MUCAPE is present. Shower coverage will gradually decrease this evening, with most locations receiving a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation and localized pockets peaking around 0.25". Showers are expected to redevelop overnight as another shortwave disturbance emerges from the Rockies and increases PoPs to 50-80%. A band of moderate rainfall should develop from central into southeast Nebraska near the nose of a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. Sufficient instability will remain across southeast Nebraska for a few embedded thunderstorms. Some training of showers and storms will be possible in this area, with an environment supportive of efficient rainfall. PWAT values will approaching 2 inches (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology), while warm-cloud depths increase to around 4 to 4.5 km. Rainfall totals across the southern portion of the forecast area could reach 1 to 1.5 inches. Hydrologic concerns will need to be monitored, and WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. However, recent dry conditions and ongoing crop water usage should make flash-flood guidance difficult to exceed. Rainfall amounts will decrease farther north, where showers should remain lighter and more scattered through the day. Persistent cloud cover will again hold highs in the 70s on Thursday. Showers will diminish Thursday afternoon before increasing again Thursday evening and overnight as another shortwave disturbance crosses the region. A renewed nocturnal low-level jet will support widespread shower development, with POps of 60-90%. Efficient rainfall ingredients will be in place, leading to localized bands of 0.75 to 1.25 inches depending on where the heaviest showers develop. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease Friday morning and afternoon, with skies beginning to clear from west to east. High temperatures should recover into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Saturday and Beyond... Mid- to upper-level riding will amplify and expand northward into the region this weekend, resulting in a warming trend. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to rise into the 25 to 30 degree C range and should mix efficiently to the surface both days. Highs Saturday will climb into the 90s, with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across portions of east-central Nebraska. Low-level moisture transport and evapotranspiration will push dewpoints into the 70s, resulting in muggy conditions and heat index values near 100 degrees across much of the area. Temperatures will increase further Sunday, with widespread highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and peak heat index values of 104 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory may eventually be needed as forecast confidence increase. Shortwave disturbances are expected to round the ridge early next week, gradually dampening it and allowing temperatures to ease. Highs should remain in the mid to upper 90s Monday before falling into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday. Long-range guidance remains inconsistent regards the tracks of these disturbances, with some solutions keeping them farther north and other bringing them through the local area. This uncertainty supports lower confidence in forecasted highs and periodic precipitation chances through the work week, with PoPs generally ranging from 15- 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conditions are favored through the period, with scattered showers continuing around all terminals late this morning. An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out early this afternoon, especially at KLNK (20% chance). Showers will gradually decrease in coverage into the afternoon, though a broken to overcast cloud deck around FL070-100 will stick around through much of the period. Winds will remain calm and out of the north, gradually shifting clockwise to southerly overnight. Showers will redevelop overnight, though the highest chances will remain south of the terminals. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
602 FXUS63 KGID 221839 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A couple rounds of beneficial showers and non-severe thunderstorms tonight through Friday morning. - Heat returns this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Showers and a few weak t-storms persist near and north of I-80 as of early afternoon. This will gradually clear through the afternoon, but lingering cloud cover will keep our northern/eastern zones significantly cooler than further southwest that have seen mostly sunny skies nearly all day. After a dry evening, scattered showers and a few t-storms redevelop early Thursday morning, aided by convergence in the 850-700mb layer. Instability is limited, so severe weather is not expected, but this does have the potential to be produce heavier rain than Wednesday morning. Based on the 12Z HREF, localized rain totals of 1.00-2.50" are possible (10% chance), with more widespread totals in the 0.15-0.75" range. Much like Wednesday, rain will clear out in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to rebound to the mid 70s to near 90 degrees (warmest in the southwest). One more round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop Thursday evening. Given the relative warmth in portions of KS, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out in these areas, but widespread strong to severe storms are not expected. Friday will dry out and trend warmer, and this trend will continue into the weekend. Widespread highs in the 90s are expected to return for Saturday, and many areas will approach 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Relatively high surface moisture will result in quite high heat index values. At this point, it appears likely (70%) that we will exceed 105 degree heat indices, and 110 degree heat indices are very possible (30%). This wave of extreme heat looks to be relatively short-lived, though. Global ensembles favor a return to more seasonable warmth for the middle to end of next week. This will also be accompanied by additional chances for rain/t-storms, although there is some uncertainty on how widespread/beneficial these will be. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Showers have lifted north of GRI/EAR and dry/VFR conditions are expected through evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop early Thursday morning, and a period of MVFR to borderline IFR conditions is expected as these depart after sunrise Thursday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels
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