Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

842
FXUS63 KOAX 201103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost
  for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Surface high pressure was building in late this evening with clouds
slowly, but surely starting to clear out of the area. Winds will
also become quite light as the high passes over, setting up what
looks to be a chilly night. Latest guidance suggests fairly
widespread 30s, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA
dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Expect frost development in much
of this area with potential for a few spots getting below freezing.
A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM.

The surface high will push to our east through the day on Wednesday
as some weak shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest
ejects eastward toward the area. This will lead to increasing cloud
cover and perhaps a few sprinkles or showers in portions of
northeast NE, but they likely won`t amount to much more than a few
hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cooler
side, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Another bit of shortwave
energy will slide through southern portions of the forecast area
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in better agreement
that we see some showers and perhaps an isolated storm with this,
mainly near and south of I-80 (30-50% chance).

Meanwhile, a trough will be digging into the western CONUS out of
Canada and eventually push east into the forecast area late Thursday
night into Friday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we`ll
see widespread rainfall with this system on Friday (60-80% chance),
but still some differences on exact track and resulting rainfall
amounts. Consensus currently suggests most places see a few tenths
at most.

Warmer, drier air will move in behind this system as it departs on
Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. We`ll warm further on Sunday and Monday as the trough
axis pushes to our northeast and ridging starts to build in. Expect
upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday followed by widespread 80s Monday into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are still expected to hold for the next 24 hours,
with shallow fog near the KOMA terminal that will last for an
hour before dissipating. Winds are very light and generally out
of the north, but will become increasingly easterly, then
eventually southeasterly towards the end of the TAF period at
less than 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

313
FXUS63 KGID 201145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Frost Advisory for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and
  Nance counties will expire at 8AM this morning.

- A handful of showers will move into a few western portions of
  the area this morning. A few more showers and non-severe
  storms will move in again later this evening and overnight
  tonight (35-65% chances, concentrated south of I-80).

- Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and
  Friday. Most area can expect to see between 0.25-0.5" of
  precipitation accumulation through Friday night.

- Highs today and Thursday will stick in the upper 50s to mid
  60s followed by a gradual warming trend back to the 80s by
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026


Temperatures this morning approaching the mid 30s across a few
portions of the area north of I-80 will bring the potential for
frost formation. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Valley,
Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties through 7AM. The cooler
temperatures that were observed yesterday will continue to stick
around for the next three days as weak surface winds among mostly
overcast skies will prevent highs from warming out of the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Lows the next 3 nights should continue to fall between the
upper 30s to lower 50s, generally only warming a few degrees each
night. Higher surface pressure centered over the Plains/Midwest
region today and tomorrow will serve as the damper to the surface
winds. Light to steady winds out of the east to southeast will last
through Thursday. Speeds will primarily stick between 5-10MPH with
occasional gusts as high as 20MPH possible.

The main story in the short-term will be the potential for
precipitation that will come in in the form of several waves of
showers and non-severe thunderstorms over the next several days
(through Friday night). Starting out this morning with a few showers
crawling up from the southwest, another more widespread coverage of
showers and weak thunderstorms will push back in later tonight and
into early Thursday morning (35-65% chances concentrated south of I-
80). There is generally not enough instability out to threaten any
sort of severe weather threat (only 0-200J/kg of CAPE).

Aloft, the continuation of intermountain west troughing will keep
the area underneath a zone of weak isentropic assent paired with mid-
level CVA along the downstream side of the mid-level trough. These
features will provide continued support for developing areas of
showers and weak thunderstorms across the foothills of the Rockies
over the next few days. The waves of showers/storms will continue to
track up into portions of central Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas should
expected to see between mainly 0.25-0.5+" of precipitation through
Friday night. The best individual precipitation chances currently
lie overnight Wednesday as well as Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that
resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4
days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the
30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under
surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase
early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from
dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in
some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in
areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is
"generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season
already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard,
Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost
impact.

Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in
from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains.
Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up
0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but
instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected.

Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected
to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances
for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat
remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought-
stricken areas of western Nebraska.

Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will
trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper
level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost
a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected
to return for Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clouds moving in this morning will gradually fill the sky for
the day, setting bases between 6,000-10,000ft for much of the
day. A few light showers can`t be ruled out through 18z for KEAR
with another shower chance coming later tonight for both sites
(mainly after 6z). Winds today will remain fairly light and out
of the east to southeast at times. Gusts should stay below
15MPH.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046-
     047.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion