Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

817
FXUS63 KOAX 091732
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty light showers and perhaps a few storms this afternoon
  into early Sunday (20-40% chance, highest south of I-80).
  Stronger storms could produce 40-50 mph gusts.

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s and maybe a
  few lower 90s, especially by Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger
  on Tuesday and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday
  night/Tuesday (10%) and Thursday/Friday (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed a cold front working south across
the area, passing through Lincoln around noon. Some light
returns behind the front were showing up on radar, but not much
was reaching the ground per latest obs, with the 18Z OAX
sounding showing plenty of low level dry air. To the west, some
more robust showers were moving through central NE as some weak
shortwave energy was sliding through. These should continue
eastward and bring at least some light rain to portions of
southeast NE/southwest IA late this afternoon into the early
morning hours of Sunday. Could even see an isolated rumble of
thunder during the afternoon/evening with guidance hinting at a
little instability in place. In addition, a few CAMs hint at
potential for some 40-50 mph wind gusts with any storms that are
able to develop, with model soundings showing a good inverted-V
signal. As far as precip amounts, not expecting much more than
a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation in most places,
but maybe a storm or two are able to squeeze out a tenth of an
inch.

For Sunday, we`ll be a bit cooler behind the front, with highs in
the lower to mid 70s, though that`s still right around average for
this time of year. Could also see another day with a few sprinkles
as we have an upper level trough axis sliding through, though model
soundings again show lots of low level dry air, so very little, if
anything is expected to reach the surface.

A warming trend will then begin for the work week as a large scale
upper level ridge over the western CONUS will start to push
eastward. This combined with southerly to southwesterly low level
flow should lead to fairly widespread highs in the 80s most days,
with some spots perhaps making a run at 90 on occasion. By
Friday/Saturday, GEFS/EPS ensembles suggest probability for 90+
degree highs will increase to 20-60% across a good chunk of the
area. While it will generally be a more comfortable dry heat with
dewpoints mostly in the 30s and 40s and RH dropping into the teens
and 20s through the work week, this could lead to some increased
fire danger on any breezier days, especially in northeast NE where
fuels remain dry. Currently, the windiest days are progged to be
Tuesday and Thursday, when EPS mean wind gusts exceed 30 mph in at
least part of the area.

Finally, precip chances through the week look fairly limited given
the building ridging, though there are a couple times to keep an eye
on. First is Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough and
surface low slide along the ND/Canadian border and into MN, dragging
a cold front through the forecast area. As mentioned above, not much
moisture for the front to work with and strongest forcing for ascent
will be near the low/wave, but a decent amount of guidance still
suggests some very light QPF could clip us (10% chance). Another
shortwave trough and surface boundary look to slide through sometime
Thursday/Friday, though still a fair amount of spread on exact
timing. Guidance does hint at some better moisture availability and
instability in that timeframe, so could see some storms, and various
machine learning severe weather forecasts are painting some 5-15%
probabilities across our area. Still lots of details to figure out
though.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing clouds
around 8000-12000 ft agl. A few sprinkles or light showers
remain possible this afternoon into the overnight, with the
highest chances at LNK this afternoon though upstream
observations show no ceiling/visibility restrictions under the
precip. If a heavier shower happens to move over, could see a
brief gust of 30-40 kts. Also, can`t completely rule out an
isolated thunderstorm, but highest chances are trending south of
the TAF sites. Otherwise expect north to northwest winds this
afternoon with a few gusts of 18-20 kts. Speeds come down this
evening, with a brief period early Sunday with very light and
variable winds, but direction should settle in after sunrise,
westerly to northwesterly at OFK, northwesterly at OMA, and
northerly to northeasterly at LNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

386
FXUS63 KGID 092058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
  into tonight, although many areas, especially north of I-80
  will remain dry.

- There is a low chance (5%) for storms to become severe, mainly
  southwest of a line from Cambridge, NE to Mankato, KS. Strong
  wind gusts to 60 MPH is the main concern.

- Beyond tonight, rain chances look bleak until at least
  Thursday/Friday.

- Fire weather will become the primary concern next week as
  hot, dry, and breezy conditions return to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A cold front crossed the local area early this afternoon
switching winds to the north and bringing a few showers to areas
mainly south of I-80. Latest mesoanalysis from SPC indicates
that there is very limited instability to work with, but evenso,
we have seen a couple of weak thunderstorm manage to develop
across north central Kansas this past hour. Most recent CAMS
suggest additional development across north central Kansas over
the next few hours, keeping the more explosive activity to the
south of the local forecast area.

Upstream of the area, thunderstorms can be seen expanding in
coverage across northeastern Colorado...which is forecast to
transition east/southeast through the evening hours...
potentially impacting areas mainly south of I-80 late tonight.
That said, by the time this activity reaches the local area it
should be weakening, and the severe weather potential will
likely be limited to stronger wind gusts...if any stronger
storms are able to hold together at all. While precipitation
totals are generally highly variable with thunderstorms, most
locations south of I-80 can expect to see less than 0.10" of
precipitation with a few lucky locations across our north
central Kansas counties possibly seeing closer to 0.50".

Expect a few lingering showers to then impact portions of north
central Kansas early Sunday morning, with clearing skies
anticipated areawide by mid to late morning. With high
temperatures in the lower 70s, light northerly breezes and ample
Sunshine, Sunday should be a very nice day across the area,
before temperatures start to ramp up for the start of the work
week. This warm-up will be in response to high pressure
transitioning across the area aloft by Monday  afternoon...
helping temperatures to climb into the 80s while suppressing any
convective potential. Thus, expect a dry and warm first half of
the week, with well above normal temperatures late week as the
ridge pushes further east and a west coast low transitions
across the intermountain west. Plenty of uncertainty in the
track of this low late week with the 12Z operational run of the
EC taking it north of the area and the GFS lifting it northeast
across Nebraska late Friday. That said, neither the GFS or EC
ensembles have a strong signal for precip at this time, so while
there are small pops in the forecast late next week, confidence
is low. What appears more certain is above normal temperatures
returning Monday and likely lingering into the latter part of
May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period.

Expect a cold front just north of the terminals to continue to
shift the winds over the next couple of hours, with breezy northerly
winds prevailing behind this cold front aft 09/19Z. Winds will
remain northerly into the evening hours, but should diminish to
less than 10 KTS aft 10/02Z. While a few showers may be observed
at either terminal with this front this afternoon through early
evening, CIGS should remain VFR and any precip should be
light...resulting in no significant VSBY reductions. Winds will
be westerly behind this front by mid Sunday morning, although
mid level clouds near 10 KFT will likely persist at both
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The expected hot and dry conditions will extend the spring fire
weather season into May. Already on Monday, widespread
temperatures in the 80s, humidity in the 15-25% range, and gusty
southwest winds will combine to result near-critical fire
weather conditions for the entire area, and it is possible that
western areas will need Red Flag conditions.

Winds flip to the north on Tuesday, but fairly widespread fire
weather concerns continue as drier air advects into the area.

Wednesday may be a bit of a reprieve as most of the area (except
possibly western zones) sees noticably lighter southeasterly
winds.

Temperatures are favored to approach/exceed 90 degrees on both
Thursday and Friday. Of the two days, Thursday appears to be the
most concerning with strong south winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels/Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion