Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

276
FXUS63 KOAX 052344
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
544 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as snow and
  some ice moves through. The highest potential for at least 1"
  will be northeast of a Niobrara to Red Oak line (50-70%
  chance).

- Breezy winds that gust to 25-35 mph will join the snow/ice
  Saturday, further reducing visibilities.

- Highs next week will continue to be a roller coaster; cold
  Sunday, much warmer Tue/Wed, before falling back below normal
  Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features northwesterly flow that
is pouring in from the Pacific Northwest before becoming zonal for
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Warm temperatures have been
creeping in from the west this afternoon behind a wind shift,
helping highs into the lower 40s to upper 30s that should aid in
clearing some of the minor snowpack in place. Steeper lapse rates in
the low-to-mid levels have been consistent in soundings this
afternoon, and are apparent in satellite imagery as some texture
begins to develop at the cloud top level, signaling increasing
chances for a few showers that will move quickly across
northeast Nebraska before diminishing by the time they reach the
NE/IA border through 8 or 9 PM. Initially, anything that does
fall will be rain, with increasing chances for some ice to join
in as we get later into the evening and as showers push into the
cooler eastern half of the forecast area. Overall amounts
should be only a trace, but could provide some slick spots on
untreated surfaces. This evening into the overnight hours,
temps will be bottoming out in the teens and twenties as gusts
diminish, gradually shifting southeasterly pre- dawn in
anticipation of tomorrow`s weather maker.

The shortwave currently situated over southern British Columbia will
approach the forecast area Saturday morning, helping to strengthen a
surface low that travels from west-to-east from Nebraska into Iowa.
The combination of strong warm aid advection, positive
vorticity advection, and frontogenesis will be plenty of
forcing to develop a north-to-south oriented band of
precipitation that will be a combination of rain to the south,
snow to the north, and some ice that has to first overcome dry
air before reaching the ground. The amount of forcing will be
more than enough to do just that, with the latter part of the
day having cooler temperatures and increase snow potential when
the band pushes into Iowa.

Timing out when precipitation is expected to start, things
should begin hitting the ground close to 10 AM in northeast
Nebraska arriving to Lincoln by 2 PM, and Omaha 2-3 PM. The
general footprint for the rain/snow will become more narrow as
you move south, with Omaha and Lincoln only expected to see
rain/a few flakes for around 2 hours or less before the band has
already shifted east. Farther north, it`ll be much wider and
allow for increased accumulation potential for that reason and
because of the cooler temperatures. By 8 PM Saturday,
precipitation should have cleared the area as it pushes across
Iowa. One complicating factor will be gusty winds that will
range from 25-35 mph at their peak and will further reduce
visibilities and increase wet bulbing wherever it is possible.

Recent model runs continue to tighten up the placement of snowfall
accumulations, with the corridor of highest snowfall steering
largely clear of the forecast area in favor of far eastern
South Dakota and IA/MN (meaning those traveling north on I-29
should be ready for travel difficulties). A Winter Weather
Advisory is in place along and north of a line from Niobrara to
Harlan, where the best chance to see 2" or more exists
(currently (50-60% chance). Going two to three counties to the
north east will increase snowfall totals to 4-6" or more very
quickly, making regional travel difficult heading north or east.
Omaha and Lincoln are going to miss out on any meaningful
snowfall accumulation, but untreated surfaces that could still
be we will freeze overnight as temperatures fall into the single
digits and teens.

Sunday and Beyond:

For the latter half of the weekend we`ll be right back in the ice
box that we just climbed out of, with highs only mustering teens and
twenties with a few minor flurries possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours because of steep lapse rates that nose
into the DGZ. Fortunately the cold will be short-lived, as
southwesterly winds bring warmth for Monday and Tuesday, the latter
of which has temps topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s. This
warmth will also be short-lived as another system moving through the
persistently northwesterly flow ushers a winter system through the
upper Mississippi Valley. While this system is set to miss us at
this time, another sheared-out wave will be poised to follow in it`s
footsteps and more southerly, being the next chance for snowfall
for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Model guidance has seen a significant increase in confidence in
fog development along and south of the Platte River overnight
tonight, now looking around a 70% chance for areas of fog
likely to impact KOMA and KLNK overnight. Have introduced fog
into the TAFs as the cigs around FL060 this evening will likely
retreat back northward over the next several hours leading to
clearing with calm winds. Seems like a likely fog scenario.
Expect fog to impact the terminals until the winds start to pick
back up around 13Z at KLNK. Unfortunately for KOMA, we`ll see
increasing higher clouds ahead of the approaching system help to
keep the fog in place longer, only lifting it to IFR stratus by
16Z as winds start to pick up. With IFR stratus in place, I
don`t see any reason it won`t remain in place at KOMA as the
precip arrives around 18-19Z.

As far as the precip, expect snow to move into KOFK starting
around 15Z, with IFR conditions likely to develop by 18Z. Precip
arrives at KOMA around 18-19Z with some uncertainty in precip
type. It`s looking likely to be a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow
with light icing impacts right along the freezing line wherever
that sets up. While heavier precipitation amounts will stay
north of KOMA, with cigs still around FL007 expect at least vis
around 3SM. All precip should stay north of KLNK, though can`t
rule out completely a short period of sprinkles during the
afternoon.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     NEZ011-012-015-018.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

149
FXUS63 KGID 052350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is increasing concern for a brief period of light
  freezing rain Saturday morning (7am to noon). The primary
  threat area is near/northwest of a line from Cambridge to
  Kearney to Greeley. A light glaze of ice could lead to slick
  patches on roads.

- A light dusting of snow is possible in areas north of Highway
  92 Saturday morning through early afternoon. Areas further
  south may just see a brief shot of light rain.

- Colder on Sunday, but temperatures rebound quickly
  Monday/Tuesday.

- Mostly dry through next week, with only low (10-20%) chances
  for light snow for the middle to end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As depicted by the HRRR earlier today, radar is now showing
rain/snow showers developing over SD and moving into northern
Nebraska. These are diurnally aided and should dissipate after
sunset. A few of these could clip northeastern parts of the
area, but nothing measurable/impactful is expected at this time.

The main concern going forward is a brief wintry mix of light
freezing rain, rain, and snow on Saturday as a fast moving
shortwave moves through the area. The short duration of the
event will limit impacts, but there is potential for a brief
period of freezing rain 7am to noon on Saturday. HREF/HRRR/RAP
all show light precipitation move in from the west shortly after
sunrise on Saturday. At this time, surface temperatures will be
subfreezing, with warmer temperatures aloft...favoring freezing
rain (possibly mixed with ice pellets). Realistically, this
will only last for 1-2 hours at any given location, but could
result in some slick patches on roads before temperatures rise
above freezing. The aforementioned models favor areas west of
Highway 183 for the best chance for a glaze of ice, with a
slightly lower threat further to the north and east.

Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal and largely non-
impactful for central Nebraska. Even the highest members from
the HREF only show around 1 inch of snow along our northeasterly
fringes. And that is assuming a 10:1 ratio...which is probably
much too optimistic given the surface temperatures.

Precipitation is expected to end by sunset on Saturday, allowing
any wet surfaces to dry off before falling below freezing
Saturday night. Winds flip to the northwest behind a cold front
Saturday evening.

Sunday is favored to be coldest day of the week, with most
locations remaining below freezing. There are some hints for
post-frontal snow showers on Sunday, but the overall model
consensus remains dry for now.

Temperatures trend significantly warmer for Monday/Tuesday,
then moderate back closer to normal for the middle to end of
next week. Overall, precipitation chances remain limited,
although global ensembles show at least some chance for light
precip mainly in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: VFR conditions favored. SCT clouds around 8K ft will
dissipate next few hours as winds go light and variable. There`s
an outside chance (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion