Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

470
FXUS63 KOAX 192345
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
545 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of fog/drizzle is expected overnight, with
  visibilities dropping to near one mile after 2 AM.

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 20-60% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

- Thanksgiving temperatures look slightly cooler than normal
  for this time of year (around 45 degrees for Omaha).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a mid/upper low pushing
further into the Colorado River Valley underneath amplified heights
that transition into largely zonal flow over the eastern two-
thirds of the CONUS. Zooming in locally, low stratus continues
to erode from west to east, helping temperatures play catch-up
to some extent as highs are forecast to reach the low-to-md 50s
under the peeks of sun while the dreary eastern half of the
forecast area stays in the 40s. Southerly winds with a few gusts
of 20 mph in far northeast Nebraska will begin shifting
overnight as a frontal passage begins pushing into the area.

Overnight, visibility reductions are once again the main concern as
the low-level profile moistens up behind the advancing cold front,
while cooling ahead of the front along a local surface high pressure
axis serves as a focal point for more shallow and patch fog
formation. The better bet for widespread coverage between the two
areas appears to be the lower visibility behind the front where
enough lift will be present for drizzle, while the pre-frontal fog
take on a more patchy look, relying on radiational cooling
overnight. The drizzle will be more transient, and begin to move
into northeast Nebraska between 12-2 AM before arriving to
Omaha/Lincoln by 6-8 AM, with fog being on the table after 4 AM for
areas ahead of the front. For the remainder of Thursday, low clouds
and drizzle may be slow to erode, making high temperatures a game of
how much sun will fill in behind the decreasing clouds. Highs as of
now are forecast to hit the 50s, but still a tick below previous
forecasts.

Friday and Beyond:

The aforementioned mid/upper low to the southwest is forecast to
eject from the lee of the Rockies Friday, deepening a surface system
and bringing meaningful rainfall to the Central Plains that only
clips far southern Nebraska and Iowa -- leaving most of the forecast
area dry. Expect plenty of cloud cover throughout the day, with
temperatures taking a dip from Thursday`s highs down to around or
just below 50 degrees. The maximum amount forecast rainfall-wise
will occur near the Nebraska/Kansas border and will be close to half
an inch, with no snowfall expected.

Saturday and Sunday are poised to be dry, and warmer as mid/upper
heights increase slightly ahead of another ejecting California low
underneath subtle ridging. Highs are poised to reach into the upper
50s and low 60s, making for a great weekend to get together or do
outside chores ahead of a busy holiday week. This ejecting system so
far has a northern lean compared to Friday, with rain overspreading
the forecast area Monday and lingering into Tuesday (no snow
expected). Behind this system, extra help from a clipper system
diving southeast from Canada should result in a big cool down in
temperatures compared to where we`ve been lately. In addition, the
bottom edge of the clipper system may try and bring a sprinkle or
flurry to the area Wednesday or Thursday. Highs around Thanksgiving
(outside of the oven) are looking cool and in the upper 30s to
low 40s, but our normals for this time of year are close to 45
so nothing too abnormal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Southerly winds transition to northwesterly after midnight,
becoming light. Light winds, cooling, and moisture in the region
will open the door for fog development around 09Z. Fog may cause
reductions to 1 mile or less in the vicinity of KOMA and KLNK,
with visibilities closer to 3-4 miles at KOFK. Fog is expected
to clear out by 15-16Z with conditions returning to VFR around
17-19Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

731
FXUS63 KGID 200007
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
607 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog expected to return tonight...some of which could be
  locally dense again Thursday morning.

- Rain chances return Thursday night as rain lifts north into
  the area. This band of precipitation has trended further
  north, and areas along and south of I-80 now expected to see
  some modest rainfall amounts. Highest totals will be across
  Kansas (up to 1"), with possibly little to no accumulation
  north of Highway 92 (T-0.01").

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s, light
  breezes (mostly less than 10 MPH), and sunny skies.

- Changes coming next week as a more active and eventually
  colder weather pattern overtakes the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Fog was a little more widespread and thick across the area this
morning than previously anticipated. By late morning, most
locations were fog free and partly sunny skies (with lots of
high level cloud cover) returned to the region.

For tonight...expect another potential round of fog to develop
across the local area after midnight, as light winds along with
at least partial clearing are anticipated across the region.
While some models like the HRRR are indicating the fog will be
more widespread to start the day on Thursday, confidence is not
overly high as while the winds are light they also look to have
a westerly (downslope and less favorable) component. As a
result, included the potential for patchy dense fog both in the
forecast as well as in the HWO, but opted against a headline
this early as it may end up being more patchy than some models
suggest. Will need to play this by ear and see how things end up
developing this evening/early night to see if a dense fog
advisory once again becomes necessary.

Otherwise, after at least a bit of fog to start the day on
Thursday, the focus will turn to the upper level low currently
circulating near the eastern California/southern Nevada border.
While we have had our eyes on this system for several days,
models are now swinging this area of low pressure further north
towards the local area by Thursday evening as an upper level
trough moves across the Great Lakes Region. This means the main
band of precip should set up a bit further north, and areas
along and south of I-80 are now favored to see some measurable
rainfall. While there still will be a tight gradient in the band
of precip that develops, confidence is increasing that the tri-
cities could receive between 0.25-0.50" (about a 50% chance).
The good news is that this system is relatively warm, and any
precip locally should fall as rain through Friday afternoon.
With the clouds and rain, however, Friday will likely remain on
the cooler side, with some locations likely not climbing out of
the 40s.

After a cool/unsettled end to the week, a beautiful weekend
continues to appear on tap for the local area. Behind Fridays
exiting upper level low, ridging aloft is anticipated over the
weekend as the next upper level low across the desert southwest
slowly rounds the base of the longwave trough. As heights rise,
so should temperatures, with mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures expected both days. As a bonus, with a weak
pressure gradient under the upper level ridge, surface winds
should also be light, with afternoon breezes likely less than 10
MPH.

As with the first system Tomorrow night/Friday, the trajectory
of the subsequent upper level low early next week has trended
further north in both the operational runs of the GFS/EC.
Therefore, while official pops with this system are on the low
side (10-30%), they may ultimately be too low as the vast
majority of the EC ensemble members are indicating measurable
precipitation along with about 50% of the members of the GFS.
Again, given the origin of this system, the chance of any snow
early next week looks low. Beyond this system, however, the
upper level ridge breaks down, and much cooler air and an active
weather pattern in progressive northwest flow returns to the
area Thanksgiving eve and beyond. Still too early to predict the
first measurable snow, but things are looking more promising
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Potentially complex and impactful next 12-18 hours due to low
CIGs and/or VSBYs.

Expect decreasing high clouds and winds this evening. The
weakening winds and clearing skies could set the stage for some
fog develop around/after midnight - though the exact
extent/coverage and severity remains uncertain. Seems quite
plausible at least MVFR VSBYs will develop late overnight, and
it`s possible they could fall to IFR levels. Some of the latest
model guidance seems to keep the worst of this fog just S of the
terminals - but am hesitant to buy into this solution fully at
this time.

Separate from the fog development potential after midnight will
be a southward moving deck of LIFR/IFR CIGs and at least MVFR to
IFR VSBYs along and behind a weak cold front. Uncertain if this
will be low CIGs and VSBYs OR primarily low CIGs...but either
way, IFR to LIFR conditions appear likely in the 13Z to 16Z or
17Z time frame before some improvement for the afternoon. Winds
will transition from light and variable overnight to N to NE
behind the front Thu AM at 6-10kt. Overall confidence is Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion