80°F
Updated:
7/29/2026
1:09:19pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
330 FXUS63 KOAX 291728 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily across southeastern Nebraska overnight into Wednesday morning. Heavy rain and gusty winds may be possible with any storms that do develop. - A series of systems move through the region Wednesday night through Friday, bringing the potential for measurable rainfall. A few strong to severe storms may be possible Thursday evening/night. - Cooler temperatures are expected for the latter part of the week with highs in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The forecast period begins with the upper ridge over the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle and northwest flow over the Great Plains. A weak shortwave is moving around the ridge and will arrive over the area later tonight/early Wednesday morning. The best chance (20-30%) for showers/storms will be across southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However, several models are showing precipitable water values of 1.75"+ over southeastern Nebraska through tomorrow morning. Any storms that are able to develop may produce heavy rain which could lead to some localized flash flooding. Wednesday, the ridge shifts slightly east, over the central Dakotas as a trough comes ashore over the PACNW. This will be a system to watch as it works its way across the CONUS, as it is expected to be our next storm system. A few lingering showers/storms may be possible in southeastern Nebraska early Wednesday morning, clearing out by mid-morning. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon. Areas, particularly north of Hwy 92 may see some hazy skies through the day as wildfire smoke filters into the region from the northwest. Wednesday night into Thursday, a series of disturbances move across the region bringing chances for showers and storms. Any morning convection may impact the severe weather potential expected later in the day. The main wave is expected to move into the region Thursday evening/night with warm, gulf moisture moving into the region. A few storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall being the main concerns. Precipitable water values continue to look pretty high for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Flash flooding may be a concern as well Thursday evening/night. The upper wave will slide east, over central and western Iowa and Minnesota Friday. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms Friday morning, gradually ending west to east by early afternoon. Enjoy some cooler temperatures with Friday highs topping out in the low to mid-80s and Saturday morning lows in the low to mid-60s. The cooler weather sticks around through the weekend with a drier pattern arriving. Saturday, an upper trough arrives over British Columbia and the Aleutian Islands. Meanwhile, an upper ridge nudges east over the Dakotas, with northerly flow setting up over the Great Plains. Through the weekend, a few models are showing low pressure developing and pushing into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with the ridge being pushed over Minnesota and high pressure setting up over the Four Corners. Expect a pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid-80s and lows in the 60s. Dry weather and gradual warming is expected heading into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 While there are some BKN MVFR cigs hanging around OMA at 18Z, believe that it will scatter and lift to VFR by 18Z or very shortly thereafter. Then expect VFR for the remainder of the TAF period. There is some potential for SHRA or TSRA at all sites mainly in the 10-14Z window, but it will be scattered precip so have not included at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Barjenbruch
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
210 FXUS63 KGID 291743 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will continue through mid-morning - focusing mostly along and south of I-80. Main threat is locally heavy rain amounts up to 2-3". Expect a period of drier conditions late morning through midday, but more isolated storms will be possible by late afternoon. - Additional upper level disturbances moving through the area over the next couple of days, which will keep shower/storm chances in the forecast...mainly focused on the eve/night hours. Some storms Thu-Thu night could be strong to severe. - A drier/quieter weather pattern should settle in late this week and continue through the weekend. Highs will be slightly cooler in the 80s to around 90F, with a slight warming trend possible early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 A NW to SE band of thunderstorms has developed early this morning, driven primarily by a weak mid level disturbance and warm air advection amidst a very moist atmospheric profile. In fact, SPC MesoA shows PWAT values around 2" over the region as of 09Z...which is roughly 2.5-3 standard deviations above climatology for late July. Obviously, this brings with it a heavy rain and localized flash flooding concern, especially considering very weak Corfidi vectors co-located with equally as week 850-300mb mean flow. Most of the area has been on the drier side as of late...and late July into August is peak uptake of soil moisture by area crops...so most areas can take a couple inches without any issues. The concern is most rate-driven (especially for urban areas/storm drains) as well as for repeated development/movement over the same areas which could quickly support isolated rain amounts of 3-4". Models have really been struggling with this activity in terms of coverage and location...but now that it`s developed, confidence is increasing that most of this will remain along and S of I-80...and probably along/N of Hwy 36 in extreme N KS. There`s virtually no severe weather threat - just a locally heavy rain threat - through around 9-10AM, or so. The rest of the AM and into early afternoon should be mainly dry with gradually decreasing clouds. Just how much clearing we see will probably go a long way in determining the isolated late afternoon "pop-up" potential... similar to what we saw yesterday afternoon. Must areas should remain dry...but same story for those who happen to find themselves under one of these...expect heavy downpours. As mentioned below...the potential for more rain/storms, and the location and coverage of such activity, tonight, remains more uncertain. In general, latest CAMs are less impressed with tonight`s potential compared to past couple. Doubt we`ll stay completely dry...but will probably be less organized/coverage. Lastly just want to re-iterate that a stronger-forced rain/storm chance looks on track to arrive Thursday evening/night. Obviously still some details to work out, but some guidance suggests a broken to solid line of storms that moves NW to SE across the area, with likely at least some strong wind risk. As such, SPC has upgraded a small portion of the region to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for mainly damaging wind threat. South central Nebraska counties look to be more at risk than northern Kansas...but hopeful most areas could see some rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Wednesday and Thursday... The main story through the mid-week period continues to lie with a couple more upper level shortwave disturbances passing through...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the models/forecast. Think that Wednesday will be similar to today...in that there could be some activity left over from tonight lingering around mainly southern/eastern portions of the area during the early- mid morning hours...with the majority of the daytime hours being dry. Not a lot of change in the upper level pattern, with the persistent ridging keeping that west-northwesterly flow in place. At the surface, models are showing winds turning more southeasterly...with speeds around 10-15 MPH, some show the potential for gusts near 20 MPH in spots. Forecast highs also similar to today in the upper 80s to low 90s. Little more uncertainty remains Wednesday night on through Thursday night with the timing/coverage of precipitation associated with additional disturbances moving through. Models vary more on Wed night into Thursday, some more generous with activity, others showing a smaller swath developing with weaker forcing. Models remain pretty consistent showing a stronger wave moving through Thu evening-night...bringing better potential for storms, some of which could be strong-severe (the entire area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area). Forecast highs a bit more of a range from the mid 80s-mid 90s...driven by some models keeping activity lingering around longer into the day than others. Friday on into early next week... Forecast for the end of the week into the start of the new work week dries back out. The main impact from the disturbance moving through Thursday night is with the westward shift of the main upper level ridge axis, bringing more amplified north- northwesterly flow to the Central Plains at least through the weekend. Models showing an overall lack of disturbances through the weekend, with some low PoPs returning around Tuesday. Breezy NNE winds are forecast for Friday in the wake of a sfc frontal passage...but at this point that front doesn`t look to have a notable downward impact on temps or dewpoints, with highs in the mid-80s to near 90. Forecast highs through the weekend on into Monday are similar to Friday, mainly in the 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected to last through 6z tonight with a few low ceilings and possibly slight reductions in visibilities possible from scattered overnight to Thursday morning storms (20-30% chances; fairly scattered storm coverage). Outside of a passing storm or two, lower ceilings just north of the forecast area between 12-15z (IFR to low-end MVFR classifications) will be possible to near the fringes of the area. Confidence is not high enough to prevail with the storms or sub-VFR ceilings at this time. Winds will maintain a southeasterly direction through the period with gusts blowing no higher than 15-20kts though the rest of the day and night (gusts 20-25kts possible starting late Thursday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Thies DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Stump
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