Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

911
FXUS63 KOAX 281055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast Thursday as a
  mid-level shortwave lifts into the region. Severe storms are
  not currently anticipated.

- A shift in the current weather pattern will result in some
  cooler temps (highs in the 80s) and daily chances for
  shower/storms across at least a portion of the forecast area
  from Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure over
Minnesota, Manitoba and Ontario. A mid-level ridge sits over the
Midwest into Canada and low pressure is currently centered over
central California. A mid-level shortwave trough over northern Texas
and southern Oklahoma will lift north into south central Kansas and
northern Oklahoma through the day Friday. Warm, moist gulf air will
move into the region as well. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms
will be possible for areas mainly south of Interstate 80. Severe
weather is not expected at this time.

Afternoon high temperatures will reach the mid-80s near the KS/NE
border to the upper 80s and low 90s for areas along and north of I-
80. Lows heading into Thursday night/Friday morning will be in the
upper 50s to mid-60s.

Friday, the ridge pushes eastward, extending north over Manitoba,
Ontario and Minnesota, while the westward extent of it shifts into
western Iowa and the eastern portion of the Dakotas. The continued
presence of the mid-level shortwave trough over north central Kansas
and southeastern Nebraska will bring additional shower/thunderstorm
chances (20-40%) to the region on Friday. Areas lucky enough to
receive any rainfall may pick up a tenth or two, with some localized
higher amounts with any thunderstorms.

Saturday into the extended forecast period: We will see a pattern
shift as the closed mid-level low over California will begin pushing
to the east. As the low pushes east toward the Four Corners region,
it is expected to open into a broad trough. Several shortwaves
moving around the main trough will lift into Nebraska and Iowa over
the weekend and into next week. With moisture advecting into the
region and the shortwaves moving through, there will be daily
chances for showers/storms across at least a portion of the CWA
through early next week. Expected high temperatures will be in the
low to mid-80s while lows will range from the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals this morning with
broken to overcast ceilings at or above 25,000 ft. Light
easterly winds will become southeasterly late this morning into
the afternoon hours, becoming gusty at KOFK and KLNK at 20 to 25
kts. Gustiness subsides by 00z with winds remaining from the
southeast but under 12 kts. Have introduced -SHRA at KLNK at
06z as model guidance is in good agreement that widespread
showers move into the terminal with over 50% confidence. A drop
to MVFR ceilings may occur at this terminal toward the very end
of the TAF period. Some guidance hints at much earlier start
times for -SHRA around 19z but chances remain less than 50% for
occurrence at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

455
FXUS63 KGID 281110
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
610 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually push
  northward across the forecast area today...with the overall
  best chances across central and southern portions. Severe
  weather is not anticipated through tonight.

- The potential remains for an active pattern for the end of the
  work week and upcoming weekend. While not looking at a non-
  stop rain-out, there are chances for storms each day Fri-Sun.
  There will be increasing potential for a few strong to severe
  storms as we get into Sat-Sat night, and almost the entire
  area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area.

- For the start of the new work week...overall confidence in how
  the upper level pattern evolves and accompanying precipitation
  chances remain on the lower side. Still plenty of details for
  models to iron out through this weekend let alone early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Currently...

Isolated showers and storms have been gradually working their
way north into extreme SSW portions of the forecast...a trend
that will continue on through the remainder of the overnight
hours. Looking aloft, definitely not a simple in place across
the CONUS early this morning. Satellite and upper air data show
a large area of low pressure spinning over roughly the northern
half of the CA/NV border...while over the east, high pressure
remains anchored off the coast of FL, with eastward shifting
troughing digging into the north/mid-Atlantic coast. The pattern
remains blocked, and across the central CONUS...we have a ridge
axis extending from the SErn CONUS northwestward into the
Dakotas, with shortwave troughing draped NW-SE roughly through
KS/OK. At the surface, the pattern across the area is on the
weaker side...resulting in light/variable to outright calm winds
across the forecast area.

Today on through the weekend...

The pattern today will continue to be primarily driven by that
northward-shifting upper level shortwave troughing. Models
remain in good agreement showing the northward progress being
pretty slow-going today...thanks to that ridging in place over
the Dakotas that itself is slow to shift out of the way.
Increasing precipitation chances will continue spreading north
through the day...with models not in too bad of agreement
showing the swath of activity remaining largely over our KS
counties through the early morning hours, pushing north to
roughly the I-80 corridor around midday, then points further
north through the afternoon hours. While for some locations
it`ll be a pretty wet/dreary day, models show the potential for
activity to be more scattered in nature at times...so precip may
be more come and go for others.

Looking at the end of the week and weekend...the potential for
an active pattern continues, keeping storms chances around
each day. The upper level trough axis moving through today
continues pushing north into the Nrn Plains...but additional
shortwave disturbances look to be swinging through from SW-NE.
Models, to varying degrees, show the large upper low currently
over CA/NV making more of an eastward push inland...again very
much slowed by the continued troughing over the East Coast and
ridging sandwiched in between...the the rough placement over the
weaker but still broad low looking to have shifted into the Nrn
Rockies. Not looking at a non-stop rainout through the
weekend...but models do have these waves of increased storm
chances moving through each day...with the better chances
looking to be focused during the late day-overnight hours.

For severe weather potential...models continue to show the
overall threat for severe weather being on the lower side
through Friday, instability and shear remain lacking
today...though start to improve on Friday and again into
Saturday. Dewpoints are forecast to climb into the mid-60s on
Saturday, with models showing MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg
mainly over the central/southern portions of the area...with
deeper layer shear around 30kts. Storms may be developing late
in the day Fri-Sat over a sfc boundary that models have running
roughly through western NE down into srn KS then push NNE...but
confidence in where the exact placement ultimately ends up being
is on the lower side, and what happens Fri-Fri night could
impact the pattern for Saturday. Still plenty of things to iron
out with models...but Saturday currently looks to be the next
day with more potential for severe weather, and almost all of
the forecast area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk
area. Think some strong storms are not out of the question for
Friday.

First half of the new work week...

Main question for the start of the new work week remains with
just how the upper level pattern ends up evolving...with
models continuing to show stubborn troughing/low pressure near
the East Coast keeping things clogged. The pattern over the
central CONUS continues to be a battle between ridging trying to
build north and low pressure/troughing over the Rockies/western
CONUS potentially sending additional disturbances across the
region. Confidence in the forecast is not high...and
intermittent, generally low (20-40 percent) preciptiation
chances remain in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026


Short Term...Today through Thursday Night

Steady southeast winds this afternoon blowing between 10-15 MPH and
gusting as high as 25 MPH with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will
become a familiar occurrence across the next several days. Similar
returning conditions (highs mainly in the 80s with southeast winds)
will come as a western U.S. upper-level cutoff low temporarily slows
down the forward translation of a negative tilted intermountain west
trough. This feature should lock the southeasterly winds in place
across the area through quite possibly the first half of next week.

Meanwhile, a weak shortwave disturbance sliding up from the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and western Kansas region today will
gradually shimmer northward and into western Nebraska by Friday. A
few scattered showers and non-severe storms in association with this
disturbance will later be slung up into the area from the south
across the next several days.

The first storms could arrive as early as this evening and overnight
tonight for a few isolated northern Kansas and far southwestern
Nebraska locations (20-50% chances, greatest to the southwest). Any
activity tonight will be fairly spotty and isolated in coverage.
More showers and storms should move into the the area Thursday
bringing the full area up to a 20-60% precipitation chances with the
highest confidence concentrated towards northern Kansas and
southwest Nebraska locations. Shower/storm coverage is still
expected to remain spotty to scattered through the day with likely
off-and-on periods of wet and dry conditions (potentially more dry
than wet periods). Any storm that does form will not be expected to
become severe given little available conditional instability
(

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion