Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

314
FXUS63 KOAX 111839
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
139 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional threat for strong to severe storms (20 to 40%
  chance) expected today. If a storm can develop, it will likely
  become severe with all hazards possible.

- Showers and storms persist for Sunday, particular in far
  southeast Nebraska toward western Iowa (25 to 50% chance). A
  strong storm or two may occur (5% chance).

- Active pattern continues into next week with continued shower
  and storm chances. Some storms may be strong, particularly on
  Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s persist
  before a slight cool down expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis at H8 shows a 30 to 40kt LLJ pointing
into much of the Central and Northern Plains. This feature helped
force widespread showers and storms earlier this morning, with most
locations receiving anywhere from a tenth to quarter of an inch of
rainfall, while far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa received
a healthy half inch to inch.

A brief lull in activity is expected for the early afternoon with
only a few lingering rain showers. Expect highs today to reach the
60s to low 70s with gusty south-southeasterly winds. A stronger H5
shortwave off to the west will eventually result in a sfc low
developing out in the western Dakotas. The feature will lift a
boundary and plume of moisture back into the area with dew points
increasing to the low to mid 60s. A secondary shortwave now
currently over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will also
eject northeast toward the area. Instability of 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg
in addition to 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear will be available
for convection to use **IF** it can develop and sustain itself.
Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest weak capping hanging on across
much of the forecast area aside from portions of southeast Nebraska
where daytime heating may erode the feature.

Latest 12z CAM output suggests a variety of scenarios that could
occur. Some guidance like the NSSL WRF tries to develop some
convection in southeast Nebraska as early as 19-20z as the secondary
H5 wave inches closer to the area, likely rooted aloft per forecast
soundings. However, other guidance like the HiRes ARW, FV3, and
eventually the NSSL WRF develop convection around 23z/00z that would
likely be sfc based. 12z and subsequent runs of the HRRR model seem
the least interested in firing off and sustaining any convection in
the area likely due to the nebulous forcing from the wave being
unable to break the cap. All this to say that lots of uncertainty
exists regarding if convection will develop. If convection does
form, it will likely become severe with large hail and strong winds,
and if it can become sfc based, a tornado cannot be ruled out
(especially in southeast Nebraska) given the impressive low level
curvature observed in hodographs and model output 0-1 km SRH of 100-
200 m2/s2. A conditional marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather is in place for much of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening.

Given the uncertainty of showers and storms developing, have
continued trend of keeping lower PoPs of 20 to 40% for much of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. Overnight into early
Sunday morning, CAMs suggest a few lingering showers across the area
(15-20% chance). Lows tonight remain mild in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Sunday will see some continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms, this time over our far southeast areas (25-50%
chance). Model guidance indicates a second wave clipping those areas
along with continued warm air advection helping provide lift,
although the better moisture transport shifts east of the area by
Sunday afternoon. If convection is able to develop, could see
another threat for strong to severe storms with lingering
instability/borderline shear of 25 to 30 kts. A marginal risk for
severe storms remains in place for much of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Highs Sunday warm to the mid 70s to mid 80s over our
far northwest with gusty southwest winds. Our far northwest could
see some high to very high fire danger too, but that may be negated
by the recent rainfall we`ve received/the spring greenup. The lowest
RH of 15 to 20% also doesn`t appear to overlap with the strongest
wind speeds.

Sunday night may see a few lingering rain showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over our far eastern areas with chances remaining at 20 to
40%.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The active pattern for showers and storms will continue into much of
next week. For Monday, will see another H8 baroclinic zone lift
northeast across the area with continued warm air advection helping
push temperatures to the 80s areawide. A sfc low will track
northeast through the area in tandem with a mid level wave which may
help spark some showers and storms. However, the LLJ looks to point
more toward the east, away from the forecast area. If a storm
manages to form, it could become strong. NBM currently suggests only
a 15 to 20% chance for some light PoPs along our northern and
eastern border areas for Monday.

By Tuesday, should see a more potent H5 shortwave lift northeast
from the Four Corners area into the Central and Northern Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis ensues with the sfc cyclone tracking northeast
throughout the day. Model guidance suggests the best instability and
moisture pooling behind the front over our far eastern and
southeastern service area. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear,
should see another severe threat for the area (15% chance for areas
east of a Lincoln to Omaha line). PoPs remain at 20 to 40% areawide
Tuesday.

Model guidance stalls the shortwave a bit by Wednesday with
lingering showers before finally lifting out of the area Thursday
with brief ridging. Continued disturbances are progged to track
through the area by late Thursday into Friday resulting in continued
PoP chances of 20 to 40% by Friday. Temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday remain warm in the 70s and 80s before a slight cool down to
the 60s to low 70s arrives for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A low stratus deck remains in place over terminals this
afternoon resulting in IFR ceilings. Some breaks in clouds to
scattered may occur before broken and overcast ceilings lift to
MVFR and eventually VFR. Have adjusted times a bit earlier for
stratus clearing out with this issuance based on latest model
guidance. 1738z radar imagery shows ongoing areas of showers
and storms just south of KLNK. Some of these may clip the
terminal within the next two hours or so, but considerable
uncertainty exists on if these storms will sustain themselves so
have left mentions out of TAF for now. More showers and storms
may redevelop late this afternoon into the evening hours (30 to
40% chance), but lots of spread exists amongst model solutions
on if storms will even develop. If storms form, they could be
strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado.

Ceilings deteriorate back to MVFR after 08z at KOMA and KLNK
and persist into Sunday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds of
25 to 30 kts persist for much of the TAF period, but turn
southerly late tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

240
FXUS63 KGID 111738
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered non-severe storms will track northeast across the
  area early this morning and will for the most part exit the
  area by 8 AM. Small hail up to dime size could be possible
  with a few of the stronger storms.

- Dense fog will develop behind the showers and spread northeast
  through the early morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been
  issued through 11 AM for Nebraska counties along the Kansas
  border into north central Kansas. This advisory may need to be
  expanded further north possibly into the Tri-Cities.

- Isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms may redevelop
  Saturday afternoon/evening with a few severe thunderstorms
  possible (Marginal Risk).

- Temperatures will warm back into the 70s and 80s Saturday
  through Thursday before cooling down Friday into next weekend.

- Generally small off and on chances (20-30%) for showers and
  thunderstorms somewhere over our forecast area most days
  except Monday into Tuesday morning which appear dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight...
Most areas will see at least drizzle and periods of rain
overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms. These thunderstorms
are generally not expected to be severe, but could still
produce some pea to penny sized hail. MUCAPE values max out
around 500-1250 J/KG across our southeastern zones with 0-6 KM
shear values as high as 30 kts. These will mainly be elevated
thunderstorms with some hail at times. Can not rule out a few
quarter sized hail reports, storms will be up and down (pulse)
in nature.

Dense fog was already expanding northeast across central Kansas
at 1130 PM and will continue to expand into our forecast area
as the rain departs from southwest to northeast. Felt confident
enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory across our southern zones
from the southern most tier of our Nebraska counties into north
central Kansas. Believe that this fog advisory may need to be
expanded further north late tonight and could also impact the
Tri-Cities through much of Saturday morning.

Saturday...
Most areas will start off the day cool, foggy, and damp with
perhaps a little light drizzle. The fog will lift first across
southern zones by late morning, but may linger until early
afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Eventually the fog will clear out
everywhere by afternoon and then we will see a quick late
afternoon temperature jump into the 70s.

We will see afternoon destabilization with the late day heating
allowing SBCAPE values to climb into the 1500-2000 J/KG range
first across north central Kansas and then lifting north into
southern Nebraska. There is also sufficient shear for a few
isolated supercells (0-1km shear around 30 kts). Severe hail
will be the main threat (ping pong ball), but can also not rule
out a tornado if we get an isolated supercell that can tap into
that favorable environment. Forcing is rather weak and thus
there is the question of if we will even get thunderstorms, but
am leaning towards a few isolated storms, just not widespread.
Most likely time frame for thunderstorm redevelopment will be
between 4 PM and sunset.

Sunday...
Lowered NBM rain chances and kept the rain chances confined to
our southeastern zones. Low probability of thunderstorms, but
if we do see thunderstorms there will be sufficient instability
and shear for an isolated afternoon severe threat. More sunshine
on Sunday along with another day of southerly winds will help to
warm most areas up to around 80 for highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026


Tonight/Saturday...

Colder air today filling in behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage
continues to stick around for one more day with temperatures in the
50s and dropping only down to the 40s overnight tonight. A broad
1028mb surface high pressure center passing off to the northeast
will help bend the steady 10-15MPH easterly/northeasterly winds
gusting up to 20-25MPH to the southeast tonight and to a southerly
direction for Saturday.

Though there is a 40-65% chance for (non-severe) thunderstorms
tonight, the overall coverage of meaningful precipitation amounts
will likely not spread more than 0.1-0.5" of rainfall across 1/2 to
2/3rds of the area. Storm development tonight will be dependent on
the presence of a low-level jet tonight. The best timeframe for
storm activity will be between 11PM to 6AM. Though the chance for
severe storms remain unlikely based on the limited MU CAPE (500-
1,000J), low-to-mid level lapse rates of 6-8 C/km with a modest 25-
40kts of bulk shear could still support a few stronger storms that
may produce small hail up to the size of pennies. Developing fog
behind the storms overnight will also be possible as light to steady
upslope flow mixes dewpoints close to their saturation point.
Visibilities may fall to as low as 1 mile with a handful of
locations potentially seeing visibilities drop below one mile at
times across the morning hours.

Gustier conditions Saturday from southerly winds blowing between 20
to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH, will be paired with even
warmer temperatures. Though the cloud coverage is expected to
maintain through the day, the warm air advecting winds will assist
in helping bump highs back up into the 70s.

At the surface, a low materializing across the Northern Rockies will
center the Central Plains under its warm sector side. Aloft, a weak
shortwave trough will bring by some mid-level vorticity advection,
increasing vertical instability (500-1,500 of MU CAPE). Though
storms will not be a guarantee (20-50% chance for more isolated
activity), the conditions would still be favorable to help give any
storm that does pop up potentially some strong to severe characteristics
(hail up to the size of quarters or wind gusts near 60 MPH). As
result, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather covers the
full area.


Sunday and Beyond...

Upper-level troughing out west will creep closer to the Central U.S.
across the beginning of next week. This slow moving feature will set
up a wave train of shortwave disturbances that will pass overtop of
the area mainly between Saturday and Wednesday. As result from this
feature, precipitation chances will return to the area Sunday (10-
30%), Tuesday (20-40%) and Wednesday (20-30%).

Storm chances Sunday will be concentrated towards far eastern to
southeastern portions of areas (mainly areas east of wherever the
dryline sets up that afternoon). A few storms that develop may
potentially become strong to severe (Marginal severe weather outlook
for locations mainly east of HWY-281). Another potential for
scattered storms could come Tuesday evening into Wednesday, although
a lot of uncertainty still remains for this particular event.

Model solutions between the GFS and ECMWF (long range global
deterministic models) begin to diverge Tuesday as another surface
cyclone is expected to develop across the Central U.S. Uncertainty
with the system`s track, timing and frontal placements will
ultimately determine when and where storms may end up develop.

Otherwise, the continuation of southerly winds each day through
Thursday (besides Wednesday) will help highs maintain in the mid 70s
to 80s through much of the week. Near-critical fire weather
conditions look to return to at least a portion of the area each
afternoon Sunday through next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Currently IFR conditions at KEAR and MVFR conditions at KGRI
will be expected to soon return back to VFR conditions by 21z.
Though broken to overcast skies are expected to retain through
the period, ceilings will soon lift today before holding near
15,000ft this evening and tonight. Though a few scattered
storms may be possible this evening and tonight, confidence
remains below a prob30 mention. The nature of the storms will be
in all likeliness highly scattered. Winds will stay out of the
south, blowing between 15-20kts and gusting as high as 30-35kts
through much of the day and night. Winds will begin to lighten
Sunday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion