Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

415
FXUS63 KOAX 240501
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday (60-90%).

- There is a low (15%) chance of severe thunderstorms on
  Saturday and Sunday for portions of southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa.

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

After an active day of severe weather during Thursday afternoon
and evening, a reprieve is overspreading the region. A broad
trough over the northern Rockies will become an upper-level low
pressure as it inches into southern Canada. The shortwave trough
that brought our weather, will continue to pivot around this
larger feature and away from the area. Behind this, a cold front
has moved through, bringing much cooler temperatures with it.
Temperatures will be closer to normal on Friday. Low
temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s start the day before
gradually warming into the 60s during the afternoon. Surface
high pressure overspreads the area during this time, offering
quiet weather and mostly clear skies.

Heading into this weekend, the quiet weather will be short-
lived. With the aforementioned upper-low meandering over
southern Canada, another shortwave trough begins to pivot around
it towards the Great Plains. As this occurs, a developing area
of low pressure to our southwest begins to lift the cold front
that moved through the area back north as a warm front. North of
this front, increasing warm advection is expected. These two
features support the development of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of northeast Nebraska by early Saturday morning,
before this activity gradually spreads east through the
afternoon and evening. Overall, much of the area can expect a
medium (30-60%) chance of precipitation. At this time there may
exist a low (15%) chance of severe weather nearest the Nebraska-
Kansas border. This area is forecast to be nearest the warm
front and has the best shot of surface-based severe
thunderstorms. The position of the front will be key for severe
weather and will be closely monitored. Outside of this,
temperatures remain near normal and similar to Friday.

Sunday into Monday sees a more potent system begin to take
shape. As a trailing, stronger shortwave trough dives into the
southern Great Plains, the warm front from Saturday may sink
south towards the developing surface low pressure as a cold
front. North of this front, much stronger warm advection is
anticipated to support widespread shower and thunderstorm
development. There is a high (60-90%) chance of precipitation
on Sunday under this regime. As the previously mentioned trough
begins to eject across the Great Plains, the developing surface
low is forecast to track from southwest to northeast over the
area. This is expected to support continued showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday into early Monday before another
cold front swings through the region behind the low. There will
once again be a threat for severe thunderstorms. A low (15%)
chance of severe weather may materialize ahead of the surface
low pressure across southwest Iowa. The exact position of the
low will dictate this threat and will continue to be closely
monitored. Outside of the expected widespread wetting rains,
temperatures continue their run near normal. When all is said
and done on Monday, many locations may see around an inch of
rain or potentially more.

Next week sees more of the same general weather pattern. A lull
in the activity is anticipated to start the week, but
temperatures should continue to hover near normal in the 60s
each afternoon. Our next trough in the series is currently
forecast to enter the picture by the middle of next week. This
would support the return of showers and thunderstorm chances once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions overnight through the day on Friday under mostly
clear skies apart from a few high cirrus clouds. Winds stay out
of the north overnight tonight through Friday morning. A surface
High moves through midday Friday leading to a couple hours of
VRB winds during the afternoon before winds shift to east or
northeasterly for the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

998
FXUS63 KGID 240531
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions
  continues for our entire forecast area (CWA) through 9 PM.
  Another round of near-critical conditions appears likely on
  Friday afternoon mainly in our "southwestern quadrant", but
  beyond that, we should catch at least a several-days break
  from fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section
  below for more details).

- A little patchy frost possible (not a "sure thing") in our far
  west-northwest CWA early Friday morning, but opted against a
  formal Advisory given the anticipated limited
  coverage/duration of any possible frost.

- A few weak thunderstorms possible mainly in our western-
  northern CWA Friday night.

- This weekend brings more widespread rain chances (MUCH-
  needed!), but perhaps also at least a limited/Marginal threat
  for severe storms mainly within the southern half of our CWA.
  Primary concern is Saturday and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings,
  but still a LOT of details to sort out as the HIGHEST regional
  severe weather risks should focus south of our CWA.

- Although there will certainly be lower/higher exceptions
  (there always are with thunderstorms involved), much of our
  CWA is currently expected to receive at least 0.50-1.00" of
  beneficial rain over the weekend.

- Temperature-wise: Much of the next 7 days will lean toward the
  slightly-cooler side by late April standards...with highs on
  most days between the upper 50s-low 70s..and lows on most
  nights between the upper 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Really no big changes of note from previous forecast.

- General comments on weekend severe storm potential: By FAR our
  main concern over the next 3-4 days will be assessing the
  possibility for at least a few severe storms mainly Saturday
  and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings. One of the main
  uncertainties involves IF (and if so) how far north a surface
  warm front might lift into our area. Especially on Saturday,
  it appears the main warm sector/instability axis should focus
  south of our CWA, keeping any possible severe threat in our
  CWA more along the lines of elevated hail storms. Sunday is
  obviously less-clear (and will likely depend somewhat on what
  happens Saturday night), but the warm front might TRY lifting
  north into our CWA, perhaps resulting in a somewhat-
  greater/more surface-based severe storm threat. Like Saturday
  though, any higher-end severe threat appears it should in
  theory focus at least slightly south of CWA. Plenty of details
  still to sort out, but at least at this Day 3-4 range, it`s
  probable that any severe threat we do see should focus within
  the southern half of our CWA (counties south of I-80 and down
  into northern KS).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. April
 30):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Although it was a very close call (severe storms developed
within 10-15 miles of our extreme eastern CWA), as has been
expected here for at least 24 hours now, the southwest-northeast
axis of severe storms along the cold front fired up SLIGHTLY
east-through-southeast of our CWA...with numerous Warnings
issued/ongoing within southeast NE/western IA...and probably
soon to be eastern KS. Meanwhile, back here in our area, the
cold front/dryline unsurprisingly packed a little more punch
than expected in terms of wind speeds (gusts commonly 25-35 MPH
out of the west-northwest) and also very low dewpoints/relative
humidity (RH). Fortunately as of this writing we are not aware
of any wildfire starts in our CWA, but a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect CWA-wide through 9 PM (see separate fire
weather section below for more).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, the southern fringes
of disturbance extending southward from a large closed low
spiraling over Montana northward into Canada is passing through
the Central Plains, which in concert with the well-defined
surface cold front/dryline has fired up the aforementioned
severe storms to our east.

Under a varied mix of mostly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (any
clouds of the mid-high level variety), high temps this afternoon
are on track to top out 76-83 degrees across most of the CWA (if
anything just a touch warmer than forecast).


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Our CWA remains dry, with any severe storms moving ever-farther
away to our east-southeast, and any potential for chilly
rain/snow remaining well to our northwest along the NE/SD
border. Skies through the first part of the night will average
partly cloudy, but trend toward mostly clear with time. At the
surface, breezes will remain gusty for a time this evening as
they turn northerly behind a weak cold front (gusts still 25-30+
MPH likely until closer to midnight). However, late tonight into
early Fri AM, northerly breezes will diminish to no more than
5-10 MPH. Low temps are aimed from mid 30s far north/west-
central (mainly Gosper/Dawson up through Valley/Greeley
counties), while most of the remainder of our CWA should bottom
out upper 30s-low 40s. In the aforementioned coldest areas
north/west, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out, and this has
been added to our official forecast and Hazardous Weather
Outlook. However, with any frost expected to be limited in
coverage and duration, opted against a formal Advisory.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Confidence is high that our entire CWA should remain dry through
at least 7 PM, with sunny skies gradually giving way to some
clouds drifting in from the west by late afternoon. At the
surface, the day starts with north-northeasterly winds around 10
MPH, then a period of variable direction around mid-day as a
high pressure axis slips through, then followed by a gradual
increase in southeasterly breezes mid-late afternoon into early
evening. The strongest breezes with gusts 20+ MPH should focus
within our southwestern quadrant or so (near-critical fire
weather possible). High temps were nudged upward a few degrees,
now aimed 70-75 most places, and any cooler upper 60s mainly in
our extreme north.


- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
While most of our CWA most likely stays dry, especially roughly
the northwest half of our CWA stands at least some chance of
seeing isolated/scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms
as the first in a parade of several weekend upper waves moves
in. Winds will average 10-15 MPH out of the east-southeast
through the night, which combined with increasing clouds/spotty
precip should keep low temps at least 3-6 degrees milder than
tonight, with our latest forecast calling for low-upper 40s most
areas.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT:
It`s still a touch early to start doing a "deep dive" into the
details of severe storm potential (see paragraph above in the
"big picture" section for some general stuff), but the bottom
line is that these 48 hours look to be relative active in terms
of rain/thunderstorm potential as a series of upper disturbances
track through the Central Plains in persistent west-
southwesterly flow aloft, with the overall-strongest shortwave
trough arriving into our area late Sunday daytime into Sunday
night. While both days/nights will surely feature some rain and
storm potential (again any possible severe storms would mainly
favor our south half), Sunday into Sunday night feature the
overall-highest chances for widespread measurable rain
(widespread 80-90+%) per our latest forecast. Given the
expectation that our CWA should mostly remain north of the main
warm front/instability axis to our south, high temperatures are
only forecast to reach mainly mid 50s-mid-60s Saturday, and low-
upper 60s Sunday...but again this depends on "exact" frontal
position, how stuck we are under lower clouds etc. As earlier
stated, there is decent potential for at least most of our CWA
to pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain...hopefully this trend
continues.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
While spotty rain chances remain in our forecast, this mainly
looks like a dry time frame (at least beyond Monday AM), as the
weekend system passes off to our east. For sure, convective
instability departs our region, ending any possible severe storm
threat from the weekend. High temps remain seasonably-
cool...mainly aimed 60s both days.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Still considerable uncertainy at this time range, but there are
hints of increasing rain chances (at least of the scattered
variety) as a few disturbances drop down into our region out of
the west-northwest (large scale upper flow transitions to more
northwesterly during this time). Convective instability and any
associated severe storm threat appears fairly meager. High temps
currently projected mainly mid-upper 60s on Wednesday, then
only near-60 on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to retain across the period with
only a few mainly high-level clouds filing in from the west
Friday afternoon/evening. Winds, currently out of the north
tonight, will very soon lighten and become variable across the
rest of the night/morning hours. During this period of time,
wind directions will turn clockwise with direction later
settling out of the southeast Friday evening. The southeast
winds Friday evening may occasionally gust as high as 20-25kts.
No precipitation is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- REST OF TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
A Red Flag Warning continues for our entire forecast area (CWA),
and has been extended one hour longer into the evening...now
until 9 PM. As often happens in deeply-mixed, post-frontal
regimes, wind speeds have at least slightly "overachieved"
previous forecast expectations, with sustained speeds commonly
at least 15-25 MPH/gusts consistently 25-35 MPH out of the
weset-northwest. The overall-strongest winds have focused within
the northwestern two-thirds of our area, but even far southeast
areas will see sporadic gusts to around 25 MPH. As for relative
humidity (RH), it has easily dropped below our critical
criteria, with the majority of our area reporting 10-15 %
(localized lower). Especially between 7-9 PM, winds will shift
more northerly (versus westerly), especially within our Nebraska
forecast area.

- FRIDAY:
Although outright-critical conditions are not currently
anticipated, roughly the southwestern quadrant of our CWA
appears it will experience near-critical fire weather conditions
especially from mid-afternoon into early evening. This will be
due to the combination of southeast winds gusting at least 20
MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 20-25 percent.

- BEYOND FRIDAY:
Some good news on the fire weather front! Although not
necessarily "in the clear" for the spring season, it appears we
catch at least a several-days break from critical fire weather
concerns. This will be due to a varied combination of cooler
temperatures, higher dewpoints/RH (especially over the weekend),
along with intermittent and potentially somewhat widespread
soaking rain potential (especially this weekend).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion