Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

767
FXUS63 KOAX 251006
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
506 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today with highs in the 80s, while a few 90s are expected
  near the Nebraska/Kansas border. Very high fire danger is
  expected across eastern Nebraska.

- Very high fire danger expected Thursday with gusty winds of 25
  to 30 mph and gusts of 35 mph. There is a 15 to 20% chance for
  some scattered rain showers in the morning and afternoon.

- Slight 15 to 20% chance for a rain/snow mix south of I-80
  early Friday morning. Temperatures rebound for the weekend
  with very high to extreme fire danger expected, particularly
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

04z GOES-19 nighttime microphysics shows an area of broken mid to
high based clouds across the region. Temperatures remain mild and
generally in the low to mid 50s with light southeasterly winds.

The ongoing H8 warm air advection and southwesterly flow will
persist early this morning into much of today. As a result, should
see highs warm to the low to mid 80s areawide, while locations along
the Kansas/Nebraska border warm to the low 90s under partly sunny
skies. While winds will range from 10-15 mph or less from the
southwest, the warm temperatures combined with RH of 17 to 25% will
result in very high fire danger over eastern Nebraska. Winds
shift direction to northwesterly in the afternoon as a weak sfc
boundary moves through, but still remain at 10-15 mph. For
tonight, temperatures cool to the 50s.

Thursday will see an H5 disturbance move through along with a sfc
cold front. Ahead of the front in southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa,
should see temperatures warm to the low to mid 80s, while cooler
highs in upper 60s are expected in northeast Nebraska as the front
moves through. The strong cold air advection/subsidence accompanying
the frontal boundary should help steepen low level lapse rates and
let us tap into a 30 to 40kt corridor of winds along and behind the
front. So, expect northerly sfc winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts of
35 mph. Ahead of the front, should see southwesterly winds of 15 to
20 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph. While minimum RH will be
higher at 25 to 30% compared to today, should still see an areawide
very high fire danger threat resulting from the winds and the cured
fuels. It`s worth noting too that cloud cover is expected over the
area in the late morning and afternoon which could affect how deep
we mix/are able to dry out.

Also, lift seen mainly along the frontal boundary may be enough to
spark a few light rain showers which could affect the fire weather
concerns. Forecast soundings similar to previous nights suggest only
mid level saturation with low level dry air, although some MUCAPE of
100-200 j/kg is seen at times in the afternoon. At this time, the
bulk of CAM guidance suggests a few spotty showers. For this
forecast update, have leaned more toward the dry solution per
forecast soundings, so have cut back on NBM PoPs and left at 15 to
20% chance for some rain showers mainly southeast of a line from
near Albion to Wayne for Thursday morning and afternoon. 15 to
30% PoPs linger over areas south of Interstate 80 Thursday
night. Lows cool to the mid 20s in our far north, while staying
near or above freezing along and south of Interstate 80.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Early Friday morning could see a few lingering 15 to 25% PoPs for a
rain/snow mix along the Nebraska/Kansas border as an H5 impulse
moves in behind the front. For the rest of the day, will see sfc
high pressure move in which should help gradually lower wind speeds
throughout the day. Highs only warm to the 50s due to the cooler air
in place.

The sfc high pressure moves off to our east by Saturday, helping
switch winds to the southwest. A tight pressure gradient sets up in
the vicinity of a 30 to 35 kt LLJ. So, expect a gusty day with 20 to
25 mph winds and gusts up to 35 mph. Highs warm to the 60s, and
combined with RH of 15 to 20%, will once again see areawide very
high to even extreme fire danger.

The warming trend continues for Sunday as 1000-500 mb thicknesses
increase over much of the Central Plains. Expect highs in the mid
70s to low 80s in our far western areas. Winds will be slightly less
gusty compared to Saturday but should still see the very high fire
danger continue given the lingering breeziness and dry conditions.
Monday and Tuesday will see continued warmth with highs in the 80s
both days areawide. An active pattern returns though starting early
Monday as the H5 ridge finally pushes east over the southeast CONUS.
Several impulses are expected to track northeast toward the area,
resulting in PoPs of 30 to 50% for rain and thunder late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Low-level wind shear will continue at all sites as 35-42
kt southwesterly winds move into FL014. LLWS is expected to
diminish by 25/14Z. Southerly winds this morning will gradually
veer to westerly by the afternoon and northwesterly by the
evening. A few wind gusts in the 15-20 kt range are expected to
work into KOMA and KLNK through the late morning, gradually
calming under 12 kts into the afternoon. A few mid- and high-
level clouds will pass by through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

154
FXUS63 KGID 251112
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
612 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures reaching the 80s-90s are forecast today, well
  above the normal highs for this time of year in the mid
  50s-near 60. High temp records for both Grand Island and
  Hastings are at risk.

- These hot temperatures and gusty west-northwest winds will
  bring near-critical to critical fire weather conditions to the
  area this afternoon...and a Red Flag Warning has been issued
  from noon-8PM.

- A strong cold front moving through on Thursday will bring
  gusty north winds to the area (exceeding 40 MPH possible)...as
  well as highs only in the 50s for Friday. Temps rebound back
  into the 70s-80s by Sunday.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns will continue
  through the end of the week into early next week...the day of
  greatest concern outside of today is currently Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Currently...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the area through the
early morning hours. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite
data show continued northwesterly flow in place across the
Central Plains, still sitting just east of the main ridge axis
extending from the Desert SW north into the Rockies. Elsewhere
across the CONUS, broad troughing remains over the East Coast,
while a disturbance is making its way through the Pac NW.
Satellite data showing variable cloud cover across the forecast
area, most spots are partly-mostly cloudy. The surface pattern
across the region remains on the weaker side, with troughing
along the High Plains...keeping our winds SSrly, with most
speeds around 10 MPH.

Today...

Main story for today remain with the hot temperatures expected
across the region, with record highs at risk (see climate
section below for more). Overall hasn`t been any notable changes
in the forecast for today...which remains a dry one, with
models showing little change in the upper level NWrly flow. The
current generally southerly winds in place across the area will
be switching to the west-northwest during the first half of the
day...as a subtle upper level shortwave disturbance passing to
our north pushes a sfc frontal boundary through the forecast
area. This boundary doesn`t usher in cooler air...if anything
the more westerly/downsloping component to the winds helps
mixing potential/tapping into the warmer air aloft. Normal highs
for this time of year are in the mid 50s-near 60...and forecast
highs for this afternoon are in the mid 80s to low 90s. A drier
airmass with dewpoints dropping into the 30s is forecast to
result in widespread relative humidity values this afternoon
dropping into the 10-20 percent range (lowest across the western
half). Main question mark as far as fire weather conditions go
is with winds/gusts...at least near-critical conditions are
expected across the area. There is the potential for critical
conditions to develop, and did issue a Red Flag Warning from
noon- 8PM. See fire weather section below for more information.

Thursday...

The above mentioned upper level disturbance over the Pac NW is
shown by models to keep pushing east with time, further
breaking down the ridging over the Rockies/Plains tonight on
through Thursday. Not any significant changes made to the
forecast, which continues to have low-end (20-30 percent)
precipitation chances sink south through the region as the
system slides through...models continue to be spotty at best
with the coverage of any precipitation. Unfortunately, any
precipitation that does develop looks be pretty light. Of more
notable impact from this upper level system is the stronger
surface cold front that will be sinking south through the
region...ushering in stronger northerly winds. Current model
timing has the front along the far northern edges around
12Z...with northerly winds CWA- wide by early afternoon. Having
a daytime frontal passage makes for a tricky temperature
forecast, and confidence remains on the lower side, especially
for central portions of the area. Current forecast highs are in
the mid 60s north (early day passage) to low 80s south (later
passage). Sustained northerly winds of 25-30 MPH and gusts
exceeding 40 MPH are expected behind this front.

Friday on into early next week...

The cooler air accompanying Thursday`s frontal passage impacts
Friday the most...with highs forecast to `only` top out near
normal in the mid 50s. Though an even drier air mass builds in,
allowing for low relative humidity values...lighter winds look
to keep fire weather conditions on the lower side.

Dry conditions are forecast to continue on through the weekend,
with a warmer airmass building back in...bringing highs into
the 60s for Saturday and 70s-80s for Sunday. At this point, the
next day with increased fire weather concern looks to be
Saturday.

A bit of a pattern change to more zonal/southwesterly flow
through the first half of the new work week looks to bring
better potential for upper level shortwave disturbances to the
region...and precipitation chances. At this point it`s hard to
have a ton of confidence in the timing/coverage, as some models
are more spotty in coverage than others...but at least chances
are out there. Highs in the 70s-80s look to continue on into
Mon-Tue, potentially cooler for Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

This afternoon and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the 60s and
70s, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. Winds are
breezy at times gusting 20-25mph. Near-Critical fire weather
conditions remain possible through the afternoon-early evening hours
where the lowest humidity values overlap with breezy winds (most
likely along/west of Highway 183). Lows tonight will be in the 40s
under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday...

Aloft, the upper level ridge over the west moves into the Plains on
Wednesday. This will result in another record warm March day across
the area. Highs soar into the upper 80s to low 90s, aided by
westerly downslope (warming) winds. Grand Island and Hastings could
threaten daily record high temperatures: See climate section for
more details. Afternoon relative humidity values sink into the teens
across the area. Winds look to be on the lighter side, generally
below 20mph, limiting fire weather concerns though a window of near-
critical conditions may still develop (mainly along/NW of Tri-
Cities). A few high based showers may develop over western Nebraska
and move into the area Wednesday night, but dry air near the surface
should prevent anything from reaching the surface.

Thursday...

A shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the area
on Thursday. The cold frontal passage expected during the daytime
hours, which will likely result in a greater spread in high
temperatures than currently forecast (Upper 60s north to low 80s
south). Gusty northerly winds are also expected with this cold
frontal passage. The ECMWF/NAMNest/RRFS support wind gusts of 40-
45mph at times behind the cold front. This brings at least some
elevated-near critical fire weather concerns to the area Thursday
afternoon despite the cooler temperatures/higher RH behind the
front. A few light showers are possible Thursday-Thursday night,
though this looks to be fairly scattered and any precipitation that
does make the ground will be very light (a couple of hundredths).

Friday Onwards...

Zonal to weak northwesterly flow aloft on Friday keeps temperatures
seasonable, with highs in the 50s. Decreasing winds during the day
on Friday should limit fire weather concerns despite the drier
airmass dropping afternoon RH values below 20%. Ridging builds
back over the Rockies/Plains this weekend, as above normal
temperatures return to the area. Highs on Saturday will be in
the 60s, climbing to the 70s/80s on Sunday. Above normal
temperatures continue into early next week as the upper level
pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow.

Breezy winds and warmer weather results in near-critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the area each day. Saturday
overall looks to be the greatest overlap of breezy/gusty winds and
low RH at this time. PoP chances return to the area next week with
the aforementioned pattern shift, though model spread brings
uncertainty to the timing/amount of any PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Not much in the way of cloud cover is expected in
general, what clouds do pass through are expected to remain in
the upper levels. Models continue to show the potential for
overall marginal LLWS at the terminal sites both at the start
and end of this period. Winds this morning remain southerly,
with will be switching to the west, then northwest by midday as
a sfc frontal boundary pushes through the region. This will
usher in breezy conditions, with gusts near 25-30 MPH possible.
Speeds taper off this evening, turning more variable, before
switching back to the SSW overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions remain a
concern across the area...with the main days of concern being
today and Saturday.

For today...expecting hot temperatures climbing into the 80s-low
90s, with record high temps at risk at both Grand Island and
Hastings. Current forecast dewpoints are expected to fall into
the 30s...resulting in afternoon relative humidity values
falling into the 10-20 percent range, with the lowest values
mainly west of HWY 281. A surface frontal boundary will be
pushing across the area through the morning hours today,
ushering in a switch to more west- northwesterly winds area-wide
by late morning/midday. This more westerly/downsloping
component to the winds will aid in mixing potential and help tap
into that warmer airmass aloft. It`s not a strong boundary, but
gusts anywhere from 20-30 MPH will be possible, especially
right in the wake of the boundary passage...so especially
through the early afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty
with just how far into the mid-late afternoon hours those gusts
will linger...as models suggest diminishing speeds later in the
afternoon. Went with a Red Flag Warning for western portions of
the area from noon-8PM today...but will be keeping a close eye
on trends to see if an expansion is needed.

Tonight-Thursday...any fires that do develop today, folks will
need to be aware of the strong cold front that will be pushing
south late tonight and moreso during the first half of the day
on Thursday. This front will bring an abrupt switch to northerly
winds...with gusts exceeding 40 MPH possible. Though winds
remain gusty through the daytime hours on Thursday, cooler air
is also building in with the front...and current forecast
relative humidity values are expected to bottom out in the 25-35
percent range.

Friday...cooler temps in the 50s and lighter winds is expected
to keep fire weather concerns low.

This weekend...warmer air starts working its way back onto the
region, bringing highs back in the 60s for Saturday and 70s-80s
for Sunday. Though temperatures are warmer on Sunday, dewpoints
are also increasing...the stronger winds and drier airmass, and
thus greater fire weather concerns, are actually on Saturday.
Current forecast relative humidity values on Saturday are
expected to drop to near/below 20 percent, with southerly winds
potentially gusting over 30 MPH. Winds remain southerly on
Sunday, with lighter speeds due to a weaker pressure gradient.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Well above normal temperatures work their way back into the area
for the middle of the week, peaking today, March 25th. Record
high temperatures will be threatened at both Grand Island and
Hastings.

For Grand Island:
Forecast high temp for March 25th: 88
Record high temp for March 25th: 88, set in 1910

For Hastings:
Forecast high temp for March 25th: 88
Record high temp for March 25th: 85, set in 1956

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion