Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

990
FXUS63 KOAX 290430
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1130 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies clear and winds slow allowing temps to fall into the
  lower to mid-30s tonight. Patchy frost is possible in the
  western portions of the forecast area.

- A Frost Advisory has been issued through 9am Wednesday
  morning. Friday morning may be colder.

- A shift of the pattern comes in time for the weekend, bringing
  some warmer temperatures to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A mid-level shortwave is beginning to exit the area, but has
been persistent in producing an area of weak showers across the
CWA. At the surface, we`re actually dealing with sinking air as
a surface high passes through. As a result, the radar returns
looked more impressive than the rain they represented. Returns
at 0.5 degrees were exaggerated this afternoon as it was
crossing the melting layer (melting snow looks like a lot heavy
rain). The dry lower levels evaporated a lot of the rain, too.
Virga was noted all afternoon with cloud bases starting at 8kft
and currently still close to 5kft.

Either way, those clouds are showing signs of breaking up from
west to east overnight. With the calm winds allowing the coldest
air to settle into low spots, patchy frost is expected to
develop in the area`s northern and western edges where skies
will clear first and temps will fall furthest. Numbers
generally stay just above freezing. The Omaha metro should see
temps hold closer to 40F thanks to more time spent under the
clouds.

.WEDNESDAY...

After the chilly start, temps will quickly warm thanks to the
downsloping westerly winds and sunnier skies. Afternoon highs
should jump by ten degrees for most locations.

Isolated precip chances (20-30%) push in from the northwest in
the afternoon. Severe weather isn`t expected, but there should
be a few rumbles of thunder with some elevated instability as
mid-level lapse rates steepen. Most locations will remain dry.
Unfortunately these showers are most likely in northeast
Nebraska where drought conditions are worst and dry lightning
would be most dangerous.

.THURSDAY and FRIDAY...

More PoPs (20-40%) are deserved on Thursday, especially early,
as a weak boundary sags south across the prairie. Again,
instability is noted, but it looks elevated and meager.
Thursday and Friday`s highs will peak only in the lower 60s,
near seasonal norms.

Thursday morning`s lows may be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday morning`s due to the extra cloud cover. Friday`s, on
the other hand, may be the coldest remaining this season. From
Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA and points north are forecast to hit
freezing or colder. A frost advisory (maybe even freeze warning)
looks likely there.

.THE REST...

As an H5 ridge builds in from the west over the weekend, temps
climb, finding their way into the 70s Sunday afternoon. Right
now there is not a strong signal for precip chances or timing,
but the northwesterly steering flow should drive regular
impulses through the area. These waves often won`t show up in
NWP until maybe 48/72 hours out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds out of the west or
northwest tonight will stay out of the northwest into Wednesday.
Skies are gradually clearing and should stay mostly clear into
Wednesday as well. We`ll see high clouds move back in toward the
end of the TAF period with winds becoming light and somewhat
variable Wednesday night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

107
FXUS63 KGID 290435
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1135 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions may develop overnight into Wednesday
  morning as temperatures drop to near or slightly below freezing.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for the whole area.

- Patchy fog is expected overnight into Wednesday morning for
  portions of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms may move over portions of the area
  (15% to 50% chance) late this afternoon into this evening.

- Frost/freeze conditions may develop Thursday night and again
  Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A surface high is centered in Nebraska and extends southward to
Texas and north to South Dakota. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly light out of
the north with some variation from the northeast to northwest. Winds
may begin to become more westerly late during the overnight hours.
Skies will be clear over portions of the area overnight.
Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the mid 20s to mid
30s. These conditions may result in areas of frost and/or freeze
during the overnight and into the morning hours. A Frost Advisory is
in effect for the whole area until 9 AM. Fog is also a concern
across the area overnight but do not think at this time that it will
be dense or widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Product. Will
continue to monitor in case an advisory is needed. Winds will be
mostly light and variable today with temperatures warming up into
the low to mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms may move in from the
west and northwest late this afternoon into this evening as a
shortwave moves overhead (15% to 50% chance). No severe weather is
expected. Winds will remain light tonight with low temperatures in
the mid 30s to low 40s. Frost and freeze conditions may develop
Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night into
Saturday morning with light winds, mostly clear to clear skies, and
temperatures dropping to near or slightly below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- No truly significant changes noted versus previous 7-day
  "forecast package" issued early this AM.

- Simply making a broad commentary/big picture theme of the
  various Key Messages above, this forecaster`s biggest takeaway
  is that we`re really looking at a fairly ideal weather pattern
  for this of year...especially from a lack-of-hazardous-
  weather (mainly from a severe thunderstorm/fire weather
  perspective and not counting frost/freeze as truly hazardous),
  and also from a "drought damage control" perspective. In
  other words, although we`re not expecting truly
  heavy/"drought- busting" rains over the next week, we ARE
  calling for only near-to-slightly above normal temperatures
  (at most) and an overall lack of windy days...keeping soil
  moisture evaporation to a relative minimum (especially
  compared to earlier this spring).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. May 5):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Although we had at least modest rain chances in today`s forecast
for a while, this forecaster will readily admit that the
coverage/duration of steady/numerous showers today has exceeded
expectations from 24 hours ago. Instead of being more
isolated/scattered, showers have instead been more widespread in
coverage (especially in our Nebraska zones). While low freezing
levels and resultant radar "bright banding" caused raw radar
over-estimation of rain amounts in some places (especially early
this morning...word of caution on that), ground truth from
dozens of airport/mesonet stations confirms that the vast
majority of our CWA has picked up (or will still pick up) at
least 0.05-0.15" today, with isolated/spotty pockets of at least
0.25" (including much of Dawson County which was largely missed
by heavier rain over the weekend). One one final "past weather"
note, based on obs JUST west of our CWA at North Platte/Broken
Bow, it`s possible that a touch of wet/slushy snow mixed into
the rain mainly in our extreme northwestern CWA, but likely with
zero accumulation within our borders.

As of this writing, rain has cleared out of most of the
southwestern half of our CWA, while showers continue drifting
across much of our northeast half. In the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
that a low amplitude (but very evident) shortwave trough is in
the process of passing directly overhead our Central Plains
region, with the rain gradually exiting from west-southwest to
east-northeast as it passes. At the surface, surface high
pressure centered slightly to our north has promoted fairly
light (mainly around 10 MPH or less) north-northeasterly breezes
today.

Due heavily to the "over-acheiving" coverage of rain and
associated widespread clouds, high temps this afternoon will
easily fall 5+ degrees short of expectations from only 12 hours
ago in some areas (especially our northern 2/3rds)...with highs
now expected to range from no more than mid-upper 40s in most of
our Nebraska zones, to low-mid 50s mainly in KS and Thayer
County area.


- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight):
Between 7-9 PM, any lingering light showers still ongoing in our
far northern/eastern CWA will steadily depart off to the east.
Off to our west, a few showers/weak storms will likely develop
over southwest NE/northwest KS, but should fade away before
potentially infiltrating our far southwestern CWA.


- LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED AM (post-midnight):
Although there is very high confidence in dry conditions and a
departure of mid-high level clouds, there is still at least
modest uncertainty in how efficiently lingering lower level
stratus clears out. However, confidence is gradually increasing
that we`ll likely see a pretty efficient clear-out (except for
perhaps some lingering patches of stratus here or there), as a
roughly 1023 millibar surface high pressure center settles
directly over our CWA. ASSUMING skies clear as expected,
temperatures will surely drop quite efficiently, with late night
breezes mainly averaging under 5 MPH from the west-northwest. If
anything, low temps were nudged upward very slightly (perhaps
not the right direction?), but the vast majority of the CWA is
now expected to bottom out 29-36 degrees. While especially some
northern/western counties will surely drop slightly below
freezing, areas of frost are likely to develop almost anywhere
in our CWA. Instead of "splitting hairs" a bit and issuing both
a somewhat marginal Freeze Warning and a Frost Advisory, decided
to simplify messaging a bit and issue a CWA-wide Frost Advisory
to cover the main impact to tender vegetation (a Freeze Warning
would have been more strongly considered had we been calling for
a more widespread "hard freeze" of 28-or-colder). In other
departments, higher-res visibility such as from HRRR suggests
that especially the western 1/3 of our CWA will be prone to at
least patchy fog development (and possibly spotty dense fog
reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less). While the newly-wetted
ground and clear skies argue FOR fog formation, the light
westerly/downslope breeze often inhibits widespread fog
development. Although introduced "patchy to areas" of fog to our
official forecast and also our Hazardous Weather Outlook
(HWOGID), definitely did not have enough confidence to issue a
proactive Dense Fog Advisory (something to watch though).


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
In the wake of any early-AM Frost/Freeze and possible fog
concerns, the majority of the day will be dry under mostly
sunny/partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and somewhat
variable in direction, but mainly some variation of westerly or
northerly. High temps were changed little, with most places
aimed pretty uniformly between 62-65 degrees.

However, already by late afternoon (mainly after 4 PM), yet
another low amplitude wave diving in from the west-northwest
will spark more chances for showers/possibly a few weak (non-
severe) developing over and/or drifting into mainly our
northern/western counties.


- WEDNESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although coverage is only expected to be isolated/scattered,
much of the night is expected to feature at least spotty
coverage of showers/a few weak storms, and quite a bit more
cloud cover (especially post-midnight) versus tonight. ASSUMING
this occurs, we should have a "one night break" from
frost/freeze concerns (except for MAYBE our far north-northwest
counties). Low temps are aimed mainly 38-43 degrees most
areas...slightly above frost development. This will need closely
monitored however, especially if skies look to be clearer than
currently expected.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Over the course of these 48 hours, our flow aloft turns more
northerly than northwesterly, as at least a few weak
disturbances drop southward through our region on the backside
of a large-scale trough anchored from the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada. At the surface, the main feature during this
time will be a weak cold front dropping southward through our
area Thurs daytime-evening, kicking up northerly breezes a bit
(gusts around 20 MPH). Precipitation-wise, chances for
isolated/scattered showers and some weak thunderstorms are
highest Thursday daytime (and mainly in the southern half of our
CWA), before any rain chances depart southward Thursday night
and followed by dry weather for Friday. High temps still appear
very similar both days (mainly low-mid 60s) and same story with
low temps both nights (mainly low-mid 30s). Assuming no
unexpected enhanced cloud cover, BOTH Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri
night-Sat AM will be good candidates for additional Frost
Advisories (maybe Freeze Warnings?).


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
The vast majority of the weekend currently looks dry and
overall-pleasant by most folks` standards, with warmer air
arriving and resulting in high temps generally near-70 on
Saturday, and mainly mid-upper 70s Sunday (and with relatively
tame breezes). Saturday in particular looks almost "guaranteed"
dry, but honestly Sunday- Sunday night carry a few more question
marks as both the ECMWF/GFS depict at least spotty rain at least
in the general vicinity of our CWA. As for overnight low temps,
they appear to trend slightly milder (mainly upper 30s-mid 40s),
taking frost/freeze concerns back out of the picture.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
As usual, uncertainty in the details grows by this range, but
our official forecast brings back various mainly small (20-30%)
chances for intermittent showers and (probably) weak
thunderstorms, as we remain in the path of at least a few
disturbances diving down from the north-northwest. High temps
are aimed very similar both days...most areas low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

With ongoing clearing skies and light Wrly wind around 5kt, may
see some shallow fog develop towards 09-10Z, with somewhat
better chances for EAR than GRI. Have continued MVFR VSBYs for
EAR with this update, and can`t completely rule out some pockets
of dense fog...but thinking is the Wrly wind direction will
help keep the fog from becoming dense on a widespread basis.
Late day clearing and damp ground are competing factors FOR fog,
so will need to monitor trends. Kept GRI at 6sm, for now.
Confidence: Medium.

Wednesday: Patchy fog could linger through about 14Z. Otherwise,
should be a pretty nice day, esp. from a wind standpoint, as
speeds should average only 5-8kt out of the WNW-WSW throughout
the day. Have some CU developing around 2K ft towards midday,
and this could increase to scattered showers by late afternoon
and early evening. Thus, have introduced some PROB30s to account
for this potential. While not explicitly included in this
update, it`s possible the showers could have some erratic/gusty
winds with them. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion