Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

599
FXUS63 KOAX 031802
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
102 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There`s an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms this evening
  capable of strong damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and
  a tornado or two.

- Another round of storms may be possible Saturday evening and
  night, however it will depend on how storms move through
  Friday night.

- Hot weather continues with highs in the upper 80s and low
  90s. Heat indicies remain in the mid 90s to around 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Today and Tonight...

Weakening morning convection brought patchy cloud cover that will,
once again, help mitigate some of the intense heat today.
Temperatures by noon had reached the upper 70s to mid 80s. Maximum
heat indices are expected to reach the upper 90s and low 100s this
afternoon.

Machine Learning and CAM guidance continue to strongly support
additional storm development this afternoon and evening. Convection
looks to blossom along an outflow boundary in the vicinity of
northeast Nebraska. Over 2000 J/kg of instability will be available
to fuel developing storms this afternoon, with around 30kts of deep
layer shear to help organize updrafts. Large hail and perhaps a
tornado or two will be possible with any storms that develop.
However, the greatest threat looks to be strong damaging winds (75+
mph) as the storms eventually meld together into into a bowing
segment and surge southeast through the evening hours. Several
models continue the severe threat through the overnight and into
early Saturday morning, as additional storms redevelop behind the
primary line. However, these may be inhibited by how much the
atmosphere is worked over by the initial severe line. Heavy rain
will also be a concern tonight. While storms generally look to be
fairly progressive, several rounds of additional storms on saturated
soils could lead to areas of flooding.

Bottom line, showers and storms this evening and night could
literally rain on your parade. Be sure to have safety plans in place
if you are partaking in outdoor events or activities this afternoon
and evening.

Saturday (Independence Day)...

The good news is Friday nights convection pushing south of the area
early Saturday morning could be our saving grace for the 4th of
July. While there remains a low 15-30% chance for a pop-up shower or
storm in the afternoon/evening, the greater chance for storms should
remain just to the south of the NE/KS border. That being said, the
latest runs of a few CAMs have hinted at an MCS developing over
north-central Nebraska and moving east into northeast Nebraska
Saturday night. If this occurs, the best chance for storms would be
from around 7 PM to midnight. Luckily, appears any storms should
weaken as the move east/southeast overnight.

The downside is we will still be fairly hot and humid, with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
Thankfully not Heat Advisory criteria, but folks will certainly need
to hydrate if spending extended time outdoors for the holiday.

Sunday and Beyond...

Sunday and Monday should give a break from the off and on storm
chances, as a ridge begins to build over the desert southwest.
However, this will also lead to continued heat across the region.
Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s and low 90s through
the upcoming week. Storm chances look to return to the forecast late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, and continue through the end of the period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Strong storms are expected over eastern Nebraska this evening
and travel southeast, bringing strong damaging winds to the
region. There will also be a chance for large hail, heavy rain,
and perhaps a tornado or two. The best chance for severe storms
will be between 00-06Z tonight. Storms should clear the TAF
sites from northeast to southwest between 08Z to 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

542
FXUS63 KGID 031931
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected this evening and
  overnight into Saturday morning.

- Saturday, the 4th of July, looks largely dry during the
  daytime hours (drying out in northern Kansas from lingering
  storms). The evening hours look largely dry as well, most
  activity is expected to the west and south of central/south
  central Nebraska.

- Drying out and summer like (highs in the upper 80s and low
  90s) for the end of the weekend and first of the next work-
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

I have focused on the nearest 24-48 hours and thus the majority
of this discussion will focus on that period.

This evening and overnight hours has multiple rounds of
thunderstorm activity, I will go into the expectations of each
one.

Round 1: This evening 5 PM - 11 PM
This area is what we are watching now, primarily development is
expected along the Hwy 30/Platte River Corridor between Grand
Island and Columbus, NE. Between 1 PM and 2 PM cloud cover,
cumulus has grown in areal extent. The vertical nature of this
cumulus is still relatively shallow, but the area shows where
there is more instability. This area southward along Highway 81
will be will be the favored area for development between 5-7 PM.
This activity could be severe and is highlighted by the SPC
enhanced risk, and expect a convective watch at some point in
time. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls are
the primary threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out, and
flooding, especially for areas that receive multiple later
rounds is a threat.

This activity is expected to track south and east into
eastern/southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas as we
move towards sunset and beyond.

Round 2: Tonight midnight - 4 AM
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the nose of the Low
Level Jet with thunderstorms developing along an east-west line
following roughly Interstate 80. There is some question exactly
where this activity will develop, but anywhere along and south
of I-80 is in the region for being impacted by these
thunderstorms. Some of this activity could be severe.

This activity is expected to track southeast with time.
Meanwhile Round 3 will be starting off....

Round 3: Tonight 3 AM - Saturday mid-morning
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of
northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska and track slowly
east during the overnight and early morning hours. This activity
is expected to be similar to what we saw this morning, with weak
showers/thunderstorms. Severe storms are not anticipated.

How will these storms impact Saturday July 4th?
All of these rounds of thunderstorms today will impact how the
chance for thunderstorms develops Saturday. The morning
thunderstorms will push the potential for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms southward into central and southern/eastern
Kansas. While we cannot rule out some of the afternoon storms
impacting Rooks, Mitchell, and Osborne counties, as of this
forecast it`s looking optimistic.
For the areas that are impacted by Round 3, once it stops
raining and clears out, it is expected to be a dry and sunny
day. For everyone else, it looks to be a dry and sunny day.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of
the Nebraska Panhandle, and they are expected to track southeast
with time, similar to the track seen last week. This could
impact north central Kansas counties in the late evening and
early overnight hours.
Overall the picture for tomorrow for north central Kansas will
become more clear tomorrow morning after all of these rounds of
thunderstorms.

Highs on the 4th are currently forecasted to be in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

After the 4th...
The end of the weekend and start of the work-week look dry as
upper level ridging begins to build in from the southwest. It
doesn`t last overly long as some stronger disturbances break the
ridge down and precipitation chances return for the second half
of the work week. Temperatures will generally be seasonal with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will begin this TAF period, with Thunderstorms
entering, especially for KGRI after 20-21z. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop near KGRI this afternoon, leaving KEAR
mostly dry until the overnight hours when more thunderstorm
development is expected that could impact both terminals. For
now, with the uncertainty that the thunderstorms will directly
impact either terminal, have kept the Prob30 forecast. Expect
the activity in the late evening, early overnight hours to slide
off to the south east and showers and thunderstorms that will
slide in from the west will primarily be south of the terminals.
Thus with this, have kept both terminals dry and without a
prevailing or Prob30 group beyond 07z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion