Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

002
FXUS63 KOAX 221012
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
512 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme to very high fire danger is forecast for northeast
  Nebraska on Wednesday afternoon.

- Shower and storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday
  (50-80%). Some storms on Thursday afternoon and evening may be
  severe (15% chance for any given storm.)

- Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances
  for showers Saturday (30%) into Sunday (80%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Mostly clear skies tonight with temperatures still in the mid 60s
to mid 70s across eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.
Weather stays quiet overnight as a ridge sits across the
region. Meanwhile a trough sits over the PacNW bringing our next
chances for rain starting tomorrow night.

Wednesday...
Winds increase out of the southwest tomorrow ahead of the
approaching trough, advecting in moisture as well has keeping
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 tomorrow afternoon.
Humidity during the afternoon will stay higher, only falling
into the 35 to 45 percent range across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Areas in northeast Nebraska stay drier, however,
with humidity dropping to 25 to 30 percent in the afternoon.
Low humidity combined with winds 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph
will lead to very high to extreme fire conditions across
northeast Nebraska through the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning
will be in effect through this period.

Overnight, we see showers and storms move in associated with the
first shortwave ejecting east out of the approaching trough.
This shortwave interacts with the nocturnal amplification of the
Low-Level Jet developing scattered elevated thunderstorms,
mainly north initially along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ
rotates eastward overnight we see showers and storms become more
widespread across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

Thursday...
Showers and storms through the morning will help to develop a
fairly strong capping inversion that will remain in place into
the afternoon, despite being well into the warm-sector of the
approaching cold front. Models have trended slower over the last
24 hours with the frontal passage, keeping more of our area in
the warm sector through the afternoon and evening for storm
development. Strong lift will need to overcome the capping
inversion in place, but this seems likely to occur around 4pm-
ish with initially discrete storm development along and ahead of
the cold front. Once the capping inversion gets overcome, expect
the line to blow up fairly quickly, with only a short window for
discrete supercells. Still, very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes potential will start with these discrete storms. Once
the line develops, we`ll transition into QLCS threats, primarily
wind and brief tornadoes, though hail remains possible. 0-3km
bulk shear vectors are oriented out of the southwest indicating
the greatest potential for tornadoes will be in northwest to
southeast-oriented segments of the QLCS. This line of storms
should generally be off to the east by 10pm, though possibly as
late as midnight.

Friday and beyond...
A cooler Canadian air mass moves in starting Friday behind the
cold front, with temperatures falling into the 40s Friday
morning and only warming into the mid 60s during the afternoon.
as northwesterly flow persists, cooler temperatures hold
through the weekend.

Over the weekend we see a strong low-pressure system pass just
to our south, wrapping moisture back into the region on the
north and western side of the system. Saturday we start to see
this moisture move back in while the developing warm front over
northeast Kansas holds back the warmer temperatures. Isentropic
upglide north of this developing front, however, will provide
enough lift for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across
our area starting early Saturday and continuing through Saturday
evening.

Models still are figuring out the exact track of this system,
with newer guidance suggesting a more northerly track. This
actually puts southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa potentially
back in the warm-sector with severe storm potential on Sunday.
With a more southerly track, severe weather would be unlikely.
Watch this period for another chance for severe storms for at
least some of our area.

Zonal flow sets up over the Central Plains early next week as
ridging pushes back north out of Mexico. This will bring a more
uncertain precipitation forecast though temperatures stay around
or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

KOFK/KOMA: VFR conditions prevail through this evening at the
terminals. Southerly winds increase by 16Z, with gusts in the
30-35kt range through the afternoon. Heading into late this
afternoon, a few high clouds move into the region. Ceilings are
expected to lower to MVFR levels after midnight with the
approach of our next storm system. Showers and storms were added
to the TAFs for KOFK beginning at 06Z and KOMA at 09Z.

KLNK: VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast
period. Some stratus is slowly moving across the Kansas/Nebraska
state line early this morning. Right now, ceilings are expected
to stay at VFR levels, with MVFR expected at KBIE and KHJH.
Ceilings will improve by 10-11Z. Southerly winds will gust as
high as 35kts at times this afternoon. Heading into the latter
portion of the forecast period, ceilings lower to MVFR levels
ahead of our next storm system. There will be a chance of a few
showers and storms after 09Z, with better chances outside of the
TAF period, tomorrow afternoon/evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

815
FXUS63 KGID 221128
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions possible along/northwest of a Cambridge-
  Kearney-Fullerton line. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 12-
  8pm for those areas.

- Southerly winds gusting 30-40mph are expected across the area
  today, strongest along/west of Highway 183.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible (15-25%) this
  evening-night west of Highway 183.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible (20-60%) along a cold front Thursday
  afternoon (most likely east of Highway 281). A few of these
  storms could be strong-severe capable of producing large hail
  and damaging wind gusts.

- More widespread precipitation chances (40-75%) arrive this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently in the 50s and 60s with
southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Aloft a ridge is moving over the
Plains with a trough moving into the Rockies. Southerly flow has
helped to transport moisture into the area, with dewpoints in the
50s across central and southeastern portions of the area. A
deepening surface low over the Rockies will result in a tightening
pressure gradient over the area. As it does so, southerly winds
increase across the area today, gusting 30-40mph, strongest
along/west of Highway 183 in Nebraska where gusts to 45mph are
possible. Highs today will climb into the 80s, warmest across
western portions of the area where the greatest mixing and
lowest dewpoints are expected. Gusty winds combined in areas
that experience the warmest/driest temperatures result in
critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect 12-8pm for northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-
Kearney-Fullerton) that are most likely to see relative
humidity values of 20% or less.

Late this afternoon-evening scattered thunderstorm development
is possible along a dryline in western Nebraska/Kansas. Shear
and CAPE would be sufficient for these storms to become strong
to marginally severe capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. There remains uncertainty as to how far
east these storms will make it before dissipating this
evening/night. Still, it`s plausible that storms reach
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas county (outlined in the SPC day 1 marginal
risk) before stability increases and storms wane. Further east,
a few weak showers/storms are possible during the early morning
hours on Thursday, though any accumulation from this looks to be
light (0.10" or less).

A low over the northern Plains pushes a cold front through the area
during the day on Thursday. There remains spread within model
guidance as to how far this frontal passage moves through the area.
The front will serve as the forcing for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. SBCAPE values in excess of 2000J/Kg and shear of 30-
40kts support a threat for golfball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and
an isolated tornado. Three scenarios for thunderstorm development
are listed below along with their current likelihood.

Scenario 1 (Second most likely. Example model 00z NamNest): By the
early-mid afternoon the cold front pushes east of the forecast area.
Scattered thunderstorms that develop along the front remain east of
the area entirely (no severe threat).

Scenario 2 (Most likely. Example model 00z HRRR): Scattered
thunderstorms develop on the cold front located along Highway 81.
Initial storms will be discrete/supercellular, and capable of
producing all hazards. These storms exit eastern portions of the
area during the early evening hours. Areas most likely to see storms
are currently outlined in SPC day 2 slight risk.

Scenario 3 (Lowest  chance. Example model 00z RRFS): The cold front
is slower, with scattered thunderstorms developing along the cold
front located around Highway 281 during the early afternoon. These
storms would initially be discrete/supercellular, but develop into a
line over time. As storms develop into a line the threat for
damaging wind will increase. These storms would exit eastern
portions of the area during the mid evening hours. Areas most
favored to see storms are currently outlined by the SPC day 2
marginal risk.

Outside of the severe storm chances on Thursday, critical fire
weather conditions are possible behind the cold front. The highest
chances for critical fire weather look to be along/west of Highway
281 where the overlap of low humidity (10-20%) and breezy westerly
winds (gusting 20-30mph) is greatest. Fire weather headlines will
likely be needed for at least western portions of the area. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently through tonight...

Dry conditions continue to reign today...with satellite imagery
showing plenty of sun across the region. Looking aloft...upper
air data shows west-northwesterly flow in place as ridging
slides east through the Plains...set up between broad troughing
off the East Coast and a larger scale low pressure system moving
onto the coast of northern CA/southern OR. At the surface, the
first half of the day saw most spots with light/at times
variable winds with a weak surface boundary draped across the
area. This afternoon, low pressure/troughing over the High
Plains is helping to pull that boundary northward...with more
ESE to the north ahead of the front, more gusty southerly winds
to the south. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with
most in the mid-upper 80s. Do have spots where relative humidity
values have dropped to/below 20 percent...but with the winds
remaining generally lighter (though there has been an occasional
gust near 20 MPH), critical fire weather conditions haven`t
been an issue.

This evening through tonight, no notable changes were made to
the dry forecast. Not expecting changes with the surface
pattern, we remain east of the main area of sfc low pressure,
which will keep winds southerly through the night...speeds
around 10-15 MPH, can`t rule out some gusts near 20 MPH in
spots. The southerly flow will continue to transport better
moisture northward, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading across
more of the forecast area with time. Overnight lows tonight are
mild, dropping into the low-mid 50s (normal lows this time of
year are in the mid 30s-low 40s).

Wednesday...

Overall, models haven`t show any notable changes for
Wednesday...still looking to be another day of well above normal
temps, this time with stronger winds. In the upper levels, flow
across the Central Plains is turning more southwesterly as that
larger low pressure system moves further inland...becoming more
centered over portions of MT by early evening. At the surface,
low pressure continues to deepen ahead of this system...with
models showing a strengthening dryline extending through western
portions of SD-NE-KS. A tightening pressure gradient will bring
stronger southerly winds throughout the day...with gusts near
35-40 MPH possible, especially for WNW portions of the area.
Forecast calling for similar highs for most locations, well into
the 80s for some...little more uncertainty across SSE areas,
where there may be more lower level clouds lingering longer into
the day than in other spots. After collab with neighboring
offices, the main change to the forecast for Wednesday was with
the issuance of a Red Flag warning, for areas roughly along/west
of a line Genoa-Kearney-Beaver City, NE. There are some
uncertainties...mainly with dewpoints and how far they drop with
mixing through the day. Forecast is on the lower side of things
for dewpoints/relative humidity in that area...have RH values
falling into the 17-25 percent range, confidence in winds is
higher...that NWrn area has the best potential to reach critical
fire weather conditions.

Later in the afternoon, this surface dryline off to our west is
expected to be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, some of which could be strong-severe. The big
questions for our area lie in the finer details...exactly where
does that dryline initially set up/strengthen...and can any
activity maintain itself long enough to impact our CWA. The
further west that boundary ends up, the lower the chances of
impact on us...but there are a few models that inch things
further east...thus the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remaining
over our far west. Large hail/damaging winds would be the main
threat...and would likely be a short-lived threat.

Through the overnight hours...can`t rule out some scattered
showers and weaker storms passing through the area as that
main upper low/trough push further east. Based on some models
recent trends, feel that current forecast PoPs are too broad in
nature...have 20 percent chances all the way through our KS
counties. Some models keep us dry and focus things just off to
the north.

Thursday...

By the time 12Z Thursday rolls around...models aren`t in too bad
of agreement showing upper level low pressure having moved
into eastern portions of Montana...with a SSW extending trough
axis int the UT/CO border area. At the surface, models also in
good agreement showing the main surface frontal boundary looks
to be knocking on the door of our western-most counties. Through
the rest of the daytime- evening hours...question number 1 is
tied to that surface frontal boundary`s progress through the
forecast area. There have been and continue to be slight, but
important, differences between models (even run to run for some)
with the timing of that progress...as we get mid-late
afternoon, that front will be the focus of thunderstorm
development. Some models remain consistent that at most storms
affect roughly the HWY 81 corridor...others have trended more
toward/stayed with a earlier (more like early-mid afternoon),
further west development (closer to HWY 281). It`ll be
interesting to see how models trend, now that we`ll be getting
further into a timeframe where more hi-res models are available.
Ahead of the front, could have MUCAPE values exceeding 2000
j/kg...with deeper layer shear of potentially 30-40 kts. SPC Day
3 Slight Risk remains over portions of the area east of HWY
281. Any initial discrete storms look to form into more of a
line fairly quickly...and the main severe threat also looks to
make a overall quick exit to the east, even the slowest/western
models have us clear by mid-evening.

Along with the storm threat, there is also a fire weather threat
behind the surface front. Gusty west-northwest winds are
expected to accompany the front...along with a drier airmass
and increased mixing, dewpoints look to fall into the teens-20s.
Forecast relative humidity values below 20 percent have the
potential to be fairly widespread...but like the storm chances
will depend on the eastward progress of that front. With the
expected gusty winds, it`s looking likely a fire headline will
be needed for Thursday...just a matter of how much of the area
will be included.

Friday and on...

For the end of the week, models continue to show the main area
of upper level low pressure shifting into central
Canada...keeping some spotty precipitation chances around mainly
Friday night into Saturday. As we get into Sunday...another
shortwave disturbance that starts the weekend out in CA slides
ENE out onto the Plains...and models continue to be on the
aggressive side with the potential coverage of precipitation.
12Z ECMWF ensembles showing a roughly 30- 50 percent probability
of 1 inch more, mainly near/north of the NE- KS state
line...GEFS is lower. Will see how things trend in the coming
days...but that would be some very welcome moisture. Spotty
precip chances continue into the start of the new work
week...not much confidence in things that far out.

Following highs in the 70s-low 80s on Thursday...cooler highs
are expected through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun generally
range from the low-mid 60s north to low 70s in the south.


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through the late evening hours. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday night. Ongoing MVFR stratus is
expected to remain south of KGRI/KEAR. FEW-SCT high level clouds
are possible throughout the day. Around midnight, MVFR stratus
is favored to build into the area from the south, though it
could stop just south of KGRI/KEAR. Around the end of the TAF
period, the MVFR stratus is likely to shift to the east as a
cold front approaches the area. Have included the MVFR
potential, though it may be shorter than what`s currently in the
TAF.

Southerly winds strengthen after sunrise, with gusts around
25kts by the mid-late morning. Winds increase further this
afternoon, gusting 30-35kts, persisting into the evening hours.
Winds gradually decrease overnight, dropping off quickly late in
the TAF period as a cold front approaches KGRI/KEAR (first at
KEAR).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Dewpoints today will range from the mid 50s southeast of the Tri-
Cities to the upper 40s northwest of the Tri-Cities. Highs today
will be in the 80s, warmest across western portions of the area
where dewpoints are the lowest. Windy weather is expected
today, with the strongest winds west of Highway 281 (gusts
35-40mph). Afternoon relative humidity values range from the
low to mid 30s along/southeast of the Tri-Cities to the
teens/20s northeast of the Tri-Cities. Given the overlap of
lower humidity and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions
are possible across northwestern portions of the area which are
under a Red Flag Warning from 12-8pm today. While the area may
fall shy of reaching "official" fire weather criteria (RH = 25mph), the strong winds, warm temperatures and
near criteria RH  a headline regardless. Additionally gusty
winds may result in greater atmospheric mixing and lower RH than
currently forecast.

A cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, with dewpoints
falling into the teens/20s behind the front. Highs in the 70s
combined with dewpoints result in afternoon relative humidity values
of 10-20%. Breezy-gusty westerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected
behind the front. Given the overlap of breezy winds and low humidity
values, an area of critical fire weather conditions is likely behind
the front. There remains some uncertainty on how far east the fire
threat will extend (uncertainties on the frontal timing/placement),
but areas west of Highway 281 are most favored to see critical fire
weather conditions (and need a Red Flag Warning).

Afternoon relative humidity values of 20-25% are possible across the
area on Friday. Winds will be lighter overall, though some gusts
over 20mph are possible. An area of near-critical conditions are
possible wherever gusts over 20mph occur.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion