Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

703
FXUS63 KOAX 270507
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather continues through Saturday, with a strong to
  severe storm possible Saturday evening, primarily across
  northeast Nebraska.

- Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions
  expected Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to
  110 degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next
  week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm
  chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2026

Extreme Heat Watches and Heat Advisories have been issued
through Tuesday due to the expected extreme, persistent heat
forecast to impact the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High temperatures today generally peaked near 80F with much
cooler conditions where Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri meet. Falls
City and its neighbors only peaked in the lower 70s under
persistent overcast skies that hung at about 1200 ft AGL.

Current WV imagery reveals mostly zonal flow over the central
CONUS with a negatively tilted trof pushing onto the West Coast.
A stationary front hung up across eastern Kansas trailing back
to the Front Range is the focus for tonight`s regional
convection. Our area will remain dry for the night. It`s a
beautiful one.

Have introduced fog into the forecast for tonight with best
chances of impactful visibility restrictions being west of the
Missouri River. Already visibility observations in northeast KS
and NW Missouri are quickly slipping. Expect the fog and low
clouds to push in from the southeast.

HREF and NBM probabilities currently place odds at dipping
below 5 miles of visibility at 20-60% for areas west of a line
from Norfolk to Lincoln. I think chances are much better than
that. The primary fly in the ointment will be the winds which
will remain blowing at 5-10 mph out of the southeast overnight.
Still, confidence in fog development is high. I`ve got Omaha
and Lincoln`s visibility dipping to 3-4 miles and below two
miles in the Norfolk area and counties on the western periphery
of the CWA.

.SATURDAY...

Mid-level ridging is anticipated ahead of the western trofing,
allowing heights to rise. However, the fog may be slow to lift
as overcast skies are anticipated to linger through at least the
first half of Saturday. Thanks to the cloud cover, high
temperatures will be stunted. Despite the familiar temperatures,
it will feel stickier as dewpoints will be about 10F higher.
Winds will remain out of the southeast, quicker at sustained
speeds of 10-20 knots.

Highs will peak near normal only one afternoon of this forecast
and it`s day 1. Take advantage if you`ve got outdoor exertion
ahead of you.

A potent shortwave works over the Peru, NE / Clarinda, IA area
in the afternoon / early evening. Have bumped up PoPs to 20%
earlier in the day to correspond. Expect gray skies to be a
safer bet.

Better precip chances wait for after midnight Saturday night /
early Sunday morning as the stationary front south of here
pushes north as a warm front. A nocturnal LLJ should help kick
some convection along the front (PoPs of 30-40% northeast). A
severe risk is possible with all severe modes possible as sfc
based supercells are possible. Some guidance suggests capping
won`t be overcome. Count me in on Team Thunder. The marginal
convective outlook is based on this conditional threat.

.SUNDAY and MONDAY...

The pattern becomes more amplified over the course of Sunday
leaving southwest flow stretching from Baja, CA through Fargo,
ND.

Skies clear from south to north early Sunday morning as the warm
front continues northeast. Under the sunshine and quick
southerly sfc flow, temps will race into the 90s with dewpoints
peaking between 68 and 78F. This will allow heat indices to
push into the triple digits for most locations. If the current
forecast holds, 105-110 heat indices would be met over the
eastern 2/3 of the CWA (heat advisory criteria).

A sfc low tracks through the Dakotas, leaving them with
significant PoPs, but Iowa and Nebraska will remain dry.

Monday`s forecast is very similar with heat indices nearly
identical and continued quick southerly winds, but with the
dangerous heat expanding farther into Iowa where corn sweat
pushes dewpoints close to 80F at times.

Rain and storm chances return (30-60%) to the forecast Monday
night when a cold front settles south across central Nebraska.
We`re not yet outlooked by the SPC and shear looks sub- par, but
machine- learning forecasts do highlight an opportunity for
severe weather.

.BEYOND...

Tuesday`s cold front doesn`t pack a cold punch. We`d settle for
a "less hot" punch, but the front actually lifts back north and
temperatures remain toasty through the work week. Expect 90s to
linger. The extended nature of the heat is concerning. With
overnight minimum heat indices remaining in the mid-70s,
rooms/buildings with no A/C will be very difficult to keep cool.
Heat`s impacts grow over the course of consecutive days.

Pattern recognition suggests that the area may be subjected to
overnight MCS passages as the nocturnal LLJ feeds humidity and
instability into the area. Should this materialize once or
twice, severe weather is possible (especially winds), but
temperature forecasts are subject to bust as remnant cloud cover
or cold pools have been known to throw a cooling wrench into
summer plans.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2026

Low clouds are starting to spread across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected to develop at
the terminals overnight. Low clouds will hold into the morning
on Saturday with winds increasing out of the southeast, gusting
to 25KT. Expect cigs to slowly lift through the morning into the
afternoon with VFR conditions likely starting around 18Z at KOFK
and closer to 20-21Z at KOMA and KLNK. May see low clouds return
to at least northeast Nebraska and KOFK Saturday night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-
     034-044-045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-
     055-056.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...McCoy
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

016
FXUS63 KGID 270754
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
254 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to widespread fog is possible through the mid morning hours.
  Visibility around 1 mile is possible at times in fog.

- An extended period of heat and humidity builds over the area
  on Sunday and persists through the end of the forecast
  period. Highs and heat index values will generally be in the
  90s to around 100 degrees each day.

- The overall highest heat index values are expected on Sunday, where
  areas along/east of Highway 281 could experience heat index
  values around 105 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Low stratus is gradually building across the area this morning. As
this stratus becomes more widespread, patchy to widespread fog is
favored to develop over the area. How dense and the exact coverage
of fog remains uncertain in part due to winds being slightly
stronger than is typically favorable for fog development. Visibility
around 1 mile is possible in fog, but chances for dense fog are
uncertain at this time. Regardless, fog is favored to clear by the
mid morning hours (9-10am). Low stratus is expected to linger across
the area longer. Stratus will gradually clear from southwest to
northeast during the late morning-afternoon hours. This cloud
coverage will keep highs slightly cooler today, particularly
across northeastern portions of the area. The current forecast
highs range from the low 90s across southwest portions of the
area to the low 80s across the northeast. A few scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the panhandle of
Nebraska during the late afternoon- evening hours. Model
guidance favors these storms remaining northwest of the area,
though can`t completely rule out a storm clipping far
northwestern portions of the area (Lexington-Ord) late this
evening.

Southwesterly flow aloft strengthens on Sunday, bringing in the
first in a series of hot days to the area. Highs on Sunday soar into
the 90s, with temperatures topping out around 100 degrees across
portions of north central Kansas. The biggest forecast question
Sunday onwards will be regarding potential the need for heat
headlines across at least a portion of the area. Dewpoints each day
increase as one moves east across the forecast area, generally
ranging from the upper 50s (west) to upper 60s/low 70s (east).
Sunday remains the day most likely to see an overlap/the greatest
overlap of hot temperatures and high dewpoints. Heat index values on
Sunday will range from the mid 90s in the west, to the low-mid 100s
along/east of Highway 281. A Heat Advisory was considered for Sunday
matching up with neighboring offices to the east/southeast, but
uncertainty on how much of the area will experience Heat Advisory
conditions (Heat Index values of 105 degrees) precludes a headline
issuance at this time. Areas most favored to experience these
conditions are well highlighted by the NWS HeatRisk product which
places eastern portions of the area in a level 3 or "major" risk of
heat-related impacts. The highest dewpoints & heat indices shift
just east of the area Monday onwards, though heat still remains
impactful. To sum up: the first extended period of heat and humidity
will develop over the area Sunday and persist into much of next
week. Highs and heat index values will be in the 90s to around 100
degrees each day.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Tonight...

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies today have helped keep highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for one last time this week. Strengthening
southerly winds, however, will later help warm things up for
the weekend. Aloft, stable conditions from zonal (west to east)
flow will help keep widespread precipitation chances out of the
forecast for now.

A few scattered storms developing across the foothills of the
Rockies this afternoon may later tonight approach the vicinity of a
few west central NE/KS areas. Though it is unlikely for these
storms to reach far past our western edge (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas
counties in Nebraska and Phillips/Rooks in Kansas), a small
possibility of a brief storm or shower can`t be 100% ruled out
(less than 20% chance). In all likeliness, these storms should
generally be on their last leg if not just showers by the time
of their potential arrival (around 10PM-3AM).

The only last feature to highlight tonight will be the potential for
fog. Though winds may not fully calm overnight, speeds dropping less
than 10MPH with broad southeast upslope flow and temperatures
falling near their dewpoints (low to mid 60s), may lead to a few
areas of condensation or in other words, fog formation. The high
resolution models at this point in time, tend to favor east central
Nebraska for the "densest" or best potential for fog formation
tonight. Though the fog potential really can`t be ruled out for the
rest of the region given similar conditions. Confidence is not yet
high enough to consider the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory this
shift, however, if certain model trends continue, one may be
considered during the next forecast cycle tonight.


The Main Story this Weekend: The Heat...

Despite some morning to early afternoon cloud coverage on Saturday,
highs will begin a weekend warmup, stretching into the 80s to low
90s Saturday and the 90s to low triple digits on Sunday (generally
the warmest temperatures towards the far southwestern portions of
the area). This multi-day warmup will mainly be influenced by the
presence of a northward lifting warm front, accompanied by at
times breezy southerly winds (gusts as high as 25-35MPH,
possibly even a tad bit higher at times). This strong surface
warm air advection will additionally feed in moisture on top of
the warm airmass (60s and 70s dewpoints), especially across
eastern NE/KS. This surge in moisture will ultimately result in
inflated heat index values ranging the mid 90s (far west areas)
all the way up to 106 degrees (far east areas with higher
moisture content).

As far as the heat risk for Sunday goes, the area is currently
forecast to range Moderate to High Heat Risk classifications (levels
2&3 out of 4). Even though gusty southerly winds may provide some
heat relief Sunday afternoon, limited cloud coverage should not be
able to limit the solar flux much. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
forecast (an index to measure the solar/wind contribution/influence
to/on heat relief) also shows values in the Moderate to High
classifications (level 3&4 out of 5). Though the issuance of a Heat
Advisory was held off for now (forecast nearing criteria), this heat
will likely still be fairly impactful, especially to individuals
without an effective hydration or cooling source.

Besides the warm temperatures, the mention of precipitation remain
out of the forecast through the weekend. Aloft, southwest flow is
slated to return as a Northwest U.S. centered trough provokes
height/pressure falls across the Rocky Mountains. In addition, a
Southeast U.S. ridge is expected to strengthen, partially
halting the troughs eastward momentum. This ultimately should keep
precipitation chances north of the area until at least Monday.


Monday and Beyond...

A little more nuance enters the forecast next week, though a few
general conclusions can still be made. The main signal that
continues to show merit is with the temperatures. Highs from Monday
through Friday look to mainly stay in the 90s with overnight lows in
the 70s. Besides the hot temperatures, a drier pattern may also lie
on the horizon. The only mentionable PoPs in the forecast lie Monday
night (10-45%) and Tuesday (25-45%) as the aforementioned trough
sweeps by just northwest of the area. Several details regarding
these storm`s total coverage and intensity are still to be ironed
out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR CIGS and VSBY expected during the early-mid morning
hours. IFR stratus will develop over KGRI/KEAR in the next few
hours. Within this stratus deck patchy to widespread fog is
likely to develop. The exact density of this fog is uncertain,
though some IFR VSBY reductions appear possible. Additionally,
it is also possible IFR stratus lowers to LIFR especially around
areas of denser fog. For now, have kept the IFR VSBY and LIFR
CIGS to a tempo group when the densest fog/lowest CIGS are
possible, though an amendment may be needed.

Fog is likely to clear by mid morning (9-10am), with ceilings
improving to MVFR. MVFR stratus is likely to linger into the
afternoon. The exact timing of status clearing and improvement
to VFR is uncertain, so have opted to lean towards the mean of
model guidance. Once status clears, VFR conditions are expected
through the end of the TAF period.

Southeast winds around 10kts are expected through the mid-
morning. Winds increase during the late morning-afternoon hours.
Sustained winds around 15kts and gusts around 25kts are expected
during the afternoon, winds decrease slightly after sunset but
gusts around 20kts continue through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion