Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

657
FXUS63 KOAX 281123
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
523 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow chances increase Sunday into Sunday night (30-60% PoPs),
  mainly south of I-80. Accumulations of up to one or two
  inches are possible, along with a light glaze of ice. Some
  area roads could become slick Sunday night into Monday
  morning.

- Precipitation chances continue early next week with a gradual
  warming trend. The best chances (50-80% PoPs) are Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Tonight and Saturday:

Surface high pressure is building south through the mid-MO Valley
this evening with a cooler, low-level air mass overspreading the
area. A shortwave trough traversing the northern Plains overnight
will contribute to an increase in clouds across across northeast NE
into west-central IA. However, any snowfall associated with that
disturbance will remain to our north across SD and MN.

Clouds are expected to decrease Saturday morning with mostly
sunny skies contributing to high temperatures ranging from the
40s in our northern counties to around 60 along the KS border.


Sunday into Sunday night:

The primary focus this period is snowfall potential associated with
a weak, mid-level disturbance traversing the central Plains. The
latest parameterized and convection-allowing models have trended
south with their QPF compared to earlier runs. In fact, many of
the 00z CAMs indicate little to no precipitation in our area
through 6 PM Sunday. While we won`t take that drastic of an
approach to the going forecast, we have lowered PoPs in
northeast NE and west-central IA to account for the southward
shift.

The various deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate
the potential for some 1-2" accumulations in far southeast NE
with a very sharp cutoff with northward extent. Again, the
latest CAM data suggest even lower amounts. This forecast
update will indicate a broader area of trace up to 1-1.5"
amounts to account for any additional model fluctuations.
Forecast soundings still indicate the potential for some light
freezing drizzle in southeast NE Sunday night as saturation is
lost in the ice-bearing layer. Any light ice accumulation and/or
snow accumulation will lead to slippery roads Sunday night into
Monday morning.


Next Week:

Latest ensemble data are in reasonably good agreement in depicting a
mid-level trough along the West Coast Monday morning. That
feature is projected to advance east; however, the models vary
on the track and speed of that system, as well as to what extent
it interacts with any polar-branch disturbances passing to it`s
immediate north. That leads to model variations in the evolution
of the surface pattern over the central U.S., as well as the
location and coverage of any precipitation.

All that being said, there is some model agreement that a weak
disturbance will precede the West Coast system, moving into the
northern Plains Monday into Monday night. This forecast update
will increase PoPs to 50-80% Monday night as that perturbation
glances the area. Thereafter, some model solutions develop a
robust surface cyclone over the central or southern Plains in
the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with our area residing on the
northern fringe of a large QPF footprint. There is a growing
model signal for a more prominent trough to develop across the
Interior West Thursday with a lee cyclone deepening in the lee
of the Rockies. We`ll have to wait and see.

The forecast will indicate 20-50% PoPs in the Tuesday-Wednesday
period. But, as mentioned above, there is still considerable
uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve. A warming trend is
forecast with highs in the 30s and 40s Monday warming into the
40s and 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, and potentially 60s by
Thursday. So, any precipitation falling during the day would
likely be rain with a rain-snow mix or light snow at night.
There is currently no model signal for any significant
accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light east winds
become more southeasterly ahead of a passing low pressure system
this morning. A northerly wind shift arrives this afternoon
behind the low pressure system. Winds will again become easterly
tonight as a separate low pressure system develops to the
southwest of the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

054
FXUS63 KGID 281143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild finish to February across the area (50s/60s) with much
  cooler temperatures to start the month of March (30s).

- A light wintry mix will be possible on Sunday (20-50%), with
  overall best chances being well S/SE/E of the Tri-Cities.
  Impact potential still remains a bit uncertain...but models
  agree that whatever does fall will be light.

- Seasonably cool to start the week (40s to near 50) with more
  mild temperatures returning for the middle to latter part of
  the week (50s/60s).

- A somewhat more active weather pattern through the end of next
  week, but wouldn`t get hopes up for appreciable moisture just
  yet. Forecast probably sounds more "active" than what it will
  be in reality. Could even see a few Thunderstorms Thursday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A few high clouds can be seen on satellite streaming across the
local area this morning. With lighter (and more northerly)
winds, temperatures to start the day are about 10 degrees
belows yesterdays very mild readings.

Expect one final very mild day across the region today as
temperatures return to the lower 60s across a large portion of
the local area and generally light winds less than 10 MPH
prevail. Could see a couple hours of elevated fire weather
concerns west of Highway 183 this afternoon where winds will be
a bit breezier and RH values will be below 20 percent, but felt
the risk was low enough to not introduce to the HWO this
morning (albeit it was mentioned in the FWF).

Changes continue to be in store for the local area on Sunday
when a cold front pushes across the area from the northeast, but
precipitation and precipitation type sill remains in question.
Latest NAM is almost completely dry across the local area Sunday
with moisture not creeping across the local area until Monday.
This would really limit wintry mix type impacts across the
local area with the focus being mainly outside the local area to
the east and southeast. 06Z run of HRRR also indicates very
limited precip locally on Sunday, so despite the 20-50% pops in
the forecast, expectations for much precipitation locally (more
than a couple hundredths of an inch) is low.

Thereafter...the forecast remains fairly "active" with nearly
every period of the forecast having at least small pops across
the local area, but again, expectations for much significant
precipitation are low. Main timeframe for better chances of
precip appear to be Tuesday PM and Thursday PM (when a bit of
instability creeps into the local area), but models vary quite a
bit and confidence in both timing and amounts are on the lower
end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As anticipated, today has turned out to be a nearly perfect day
for late February...that is, if you don`t like winter.
Temperatures in the 60s-low 70s, decreasing winds, and plentiful
sunshine will continue through late afternoon, so get out and
enjoy it if you can.

A surface trough and cold front will swing through the area
tomorrow morning...without any precip and probably not even much
cloud cover. There`s really not much of a surge to the colder
air until later in the day...so with continued sunshine over
dry/bare ground...could still warm fairly nicely into the upper
50s to 60s. Models have trended a couple deg warmer as such.
The bigger difference, though, will be a stiffer Nrly breezy
around 10-15 MPH. Still not a bad way to round out February.

March will try to come in like a lion...but really it may be
more like a lion cub with not much ferocity or intensity. Our
next precipitation chance will come on Sunday, and by then, some
colder air will have deepened across the region thanks to
surface high pressure sliding by to the N/NE. A weak and quick-
moving, Pacific-based shortwave will traverse the region from W
to E on Sunday, and models remain consistent in generating a
broad swath of light QPF within the warm air advection regime of
the system. The wave will carry some upper level moisture with
it from the Pacific, but deeper low level moisture will be
tougher to come by until the very "last minute", meaning western
counties may see very little to no moisture - with better
chances E of Hwy 281. Even still, looks like brunt of QPF will
focus closer to the MO River Valley where there will be more
time for moisture return.

It`s tough to pin down specific impacts (if any?), as that
requires a firmer grasp of what the dominate precip type will
be. Forecast soundings are quite complex and suggest a mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain/rain are all possible. Of these
options, feel freezing rain is the LEAST likely to occur, and if
it does occur, impacts should be minimal given brief window of
opportunity as most precip should fall during the daylight hours
when pavement temps are warmer. Also, we don`t have any snow to
help "lock in" that near-sfc cold layer. That leaves snow,
sleet, or just cold rain as the other options. Sleet can be an
issue, even in small amounts, as it`s harder to melt on contact,
but I`m not convinced we`ll see enough of it with a faster
system progression, and again, marginal sfc temps. So...bottom
line...don`t be surprised to see a light wintry mix on Sunday.
May have to watch out for a few slick spots, esp. SE of the Tri-
Cities, but not expecting it to be more than a nuisance.

A larger, and somewhat more prominent, shortwave trough will
move in from the W late Mon into Tue...and possibly linger in
some form or fashion into Wednesday. With that said, general
consensus is that the wave will be deamplifying/weakening with
time, and remain rather disorganized as it slides through.
Specific details of this process are impossible to pin down this
far out...but the general signal from the guidance is that this
too would favor a lighter end event QPF wise, and not one that
blankets the area in appreciable moisture. The current forecast
calls for "likely" PoPs in nearly every period SOMEWHERE in our
forecast area from Mon night all the way into Wed night, but
this is likely more of a function of the uncertainty of when
individual vort lobes swing through. I don`t think it`s going to
be as active as the current forecast implies. Precip type
remains up in the air, but again, with the overall light/spotty
nature to the QPF it may not matter anyway. At the very least,
this trough will keep temperatures cooler compared to recent.

Ensembles finally clear out/weaken the trough altogether by late
next week, which should allow for at least a 1-2 day warmup back
into the 60s - probably for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period with a few
passing high clouds this morning and light northerly winds 12
KTS or less likely through the period. Increasing mid/high level
clouds anticipated aft 01/10Z...with any precip likely to hold
off until after 01/12Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion