Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

301
FXUS63 KOAX 220422
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1122 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
  through Friday morning. Another broken line of storms is
  expected later Friday with a strong to severe storm or two
  possible. Hail is the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry
  conditions expected through the holiday weekend.

- Rain chances return by the middle of next week, though timing
  and coverage remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Friday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis depict an upper-level
trough moving from the Front Range into the central and northern
Plains, maintaining generally southwesterly flow aloft across the
region. Increasing moisture transport and forcing for ascent have
led to shower and thunderstorm development this evening, which will
become more widespread overnight. PoPs range from 75-100% and peak
at most locations during the mid to late morning hours (8AM-11AM).
Enough elevated instability is present for a few embedded
thunderstorms through the period.

Showers will clear from west to east late Friday morning into early
Friday afternoon, with highs reaching the 60s to low 70s. By late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the main vorticity maximum
will pivot across the Dakotas and push a cold front through the
area. A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the front as it moves west to east across the forecast
area. The stronger shear and better instability will remain
displaced from one another, limiting overall severe weather
potential. Instability will be maximized across southeast NE
and southwest IA, where 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to
develop, while higher values remain south of the NE/KS border.
Meanwhile, the stronger bulk shear will remain north of the
NE/SD border, with only around 25-30 kts extending into the
local area. With this setup, ingredients may be sufficient for a
strong to severe storm or two across far eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa. Hodographs do support the potential for a
low topped supercell or two. This round of storms should move
through quickly, with precipitation expected to exit the area
before midnight.

CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in placing the highest
rainfall totals over the next 24 hours in swatch from northeast NE
into northwest IA. HREF guidance bring a 70-100% probability of at
least 0.50 inches of precipitation across northeast NE, with
probabilities decreasing farther south. There is also a 50-75%
probability of at least 1 inch of rainfall across portions of
northeast Nebraska. Localized pockets may push towards 1.50
inches. A welcome sight after the area missed out on a lot of
meaningful rainfall so far this season.

Saturday through Monday...

A warming trend will take hold through the holiday weekend as mid-
level riding and surface high pressure slide into the area. Highs
are expected to reach the low to mid 70s on Saturday, low 80s on
Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Generally dry conditions are
expected through the holiday weekend. A weak vorticity maximum
passing by to the north may bring a stray light shower or two on
Monday. Moisture will be very limited, so the holiday is not
expected to be a washout by any means, but a low chance (around 10-
15%) for a light shower will remain possible early Monday.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The large-scale pattern becomes somewhat uncertain next week as a
trough moves onshore across the western CONUS. Long-range guidance
diverges on the speed and placement of this features as it
progresses eastward, leading to uncertainty in the timing and
location of precipitation chances. For now, highs generally remain
in the mid 80s, with intermittent 30-50% PoPs Tuesday through
Friday. Expected further refinements to precipitation timing as the
period approaches. No particular day currently stand out for severe
weather, as more meaningful moisture advection and forcing for
ascent don`t arrive until at least midweek and appear maximized to
our west for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR ceilings have worked into KLNK early this evening and will
continue to spread northward into all the terminals through the
remainder of the evening. Rain showers will overspread the
terminals later this evening into Friday morning. Confidence is
high (80% chance) that each terminal will see rain showers
tonight, though the scattered nature of showers may leave some
gaps in coverage and timing. Patchy IFR conditions are possible,
primarily at KOFK and KLNK, under heavier showers. Some
isolated pockets of thunder are possible tonight, but the best
chances come with a broken line of thunderstorms over far
eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon.

Winds will generally remain out of the southeast through the
period, increasing to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts late
Friday morning into the afternoon. Rain chances will clear with
ceilings gradually improving in the final few hours of the
forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

163
FXUS63 KGID 212337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers this evening-Friday morning. Overall
  chances are highest along/northwest of the Tri-Cities.

- Rain accumulations range from 0.10" in the southeast to 0.5-1"
  or more in the northwest.

- Highs climb into the 80s Sunday onwards with scattered, low
  confidence chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This afternoon-Friday...

Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest
Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough
begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to
gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor
instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The
most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the
overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and
northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest
rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that
pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning
hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the
front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid-
late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop
along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway
81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east
of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10"
across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1"
across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble
guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the
area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of
rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across
southeastern portions of the area.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the
low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%)
for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday
afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that
develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak
into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday
evening.

Sunday Onwards....

Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into
early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly
winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves
into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional
chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this
troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details
are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to continue to decrease this evening to
MVFR then IFR. IFR ceilings are expected by 06z. Ceilings are
not expected to improve until the late morning hours. VFR
ceilings will return by 20z. Southeast winds will become more
southerly by 12z then become southwesterly to westerly beginning
around 18z. Rain showers are expected first at KEAR then at KGRI
this evening and will continue off and on through most if not
all of the morning hours on Friday. There is a small chance of a
thunderstorm impacting the terminals as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion