78°F
Updated:
6/26/2026
4:25:18pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
801 FXUS63 KOAX 261717 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild weather continues through Saturday, with a strong to severe storm possible Saturday evening, primarily across northeast Nebraska. - Heat build this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110 degrees. - Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Today and Tomorrow... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon reveal generally zonal flow across the central Plains, with a few embedded shortwave disturbances aloft as an amplifying trough moves into the western CONUS. Cloud cover will be slow to erode through the day, especially across southeast NE and southwest IA, where the northern edge of the cloud shield associated with a departing surface low continues to brush the area. Some improvement is expected by the afternoon and evening, but highs should remain limited to the 70s to low 80s. Today is a great day to take care of any outdoor chores before the heat builds in. A low-level overcast cloud deck will work in from the south overnight. By Saturday and into the weekend, the amplifying trough to our west will force mid-level ridging to build into the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the approaching system and associated surface low to our west, a warm front will slowly lift northward across the area Saturday, accompanied by increasing moisture transport. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s, likely held back somewhat by cloud cover, while dewpoints climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. Precipitation chances return Saturday evening, generally in the 25-5 0% range across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northward advancing front as the low-level jet strengthens and noses into it. This potential remains conditions. If storms are able to develop, sufficient shear and instability would support a strong to severe storm or two, with isolated hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. However, rising mid-level heights may be enough to suppress convective initiation altogether. Any strong chances should shift northward overnight. Sunday and Beyond... Sunday into early next week, a mid-level ridge will continue to build into the central Plains and Mid-South, leading to a notable increase in temperatures across the region. Confidence is highest that Sunday and Monday will be among the hottest days of the period for most locations, with highs generally in the 94 to 100 degree range. Southerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph will help draw richer moisture northward, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will push heat index values into the uncomfortable 105 to 110 degree range, with the highest values expected across southwest Iowa where the higher dewpoints reside. Relief is not on the horizon, as high temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90s through the work week with daily heat index values generally in the 95 to 105 degree range. Heading into Monday, the western trough is expected to begin edging farther into the Plains as a stronger mid-level jet streak lifts across the northern Plains. This should help to nudge the ridge slightly eastward and bringing periodic precipitation chances back to the region. From Monday onward, nightly PoPs generally remain in the 20-50% range. A very unstable air mass is expected to be in place during this time, though the overall severe weather potential will depend heavily on the timing and track of any subtle shortwave energy ejecting out of the trough, especially with shear expected to remain somewhat limited. Ensemble guidance continues to show at least some QPF signal in or near the forecast area each night, with support from the GEFS, EPS and EPS-AIFS. EPS- and GEFS-based machine learning guidance also continue to show low-end severe weather probabilities, generally in the 5-15% range, Monday through Wednesday. The overall pattern remains supportive of one or more nocturnal MCSs early next week, as a strengthening low-level jet feeds moisture and elevated instability into the region along the edge of the ridge. However, confidence in timing and placement remains low and will depend heavily on mesoscale details. Any convection could locally temper the heat through cloud cover and outflow, but the broader hot and humid pattern is expected to persist through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 A deck of MVFR ceilings remain in place across southeast Nebraska this afternoon. While VFR conditions are favorite this afternoon, brief periods of MVFR conditions may work into KLNK. A broken to overcast cloud deck at FL050-080 will remain in place through the day. Otherwise, widespread IFR ceilings are expected to overspread all the terminals later this evening into the overnight period. Patchy LIFR conditions will be possible early Saturday morning, primarily at KLNK. Ceilings will slowly break up and improve after 27/14Z. Winds will remain light and out of the east- southeast, increasing in the final few hours of the forecast period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
901 FXUS63 KGID 262046 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 346 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few places of fog may be possible to form tonight. Though the total coverage of the fog remains somewhat uncertain, any location within the forecast area will still at least have some potential. - Temperatures will be heating up for the weekend. Highs are expected to peak Sunday (90s with a few isolated places in the low 100s) with heat index values as high as 106 degrees. - Highs for much of the rest of next week will look to mainly range the 90s. - The next real chance for precipitation (>25% chance) does not come until Monday night (25-45% chances concentrated towards the northeast portions of the area). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Tonight... Mostly cloudy to overcast skies today have helped keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for one last time this week. Strengthening southerly winds, however, will later help warm things up for the weekend. Aloft, stable conditions from zonal (west to east) flow will help keep widespread precipitation chances out of the forecast for now. A few scattered storms developing across the foothills of the Rockies this afternoon may later tonight approach the vicinity of a few west central NE/KS areas. Though it is unlikely for these storms to reach far past our western edge (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties in Nebraska and Phillips/Rooks in Kansas), a small possibility of a brief storm or shower can`t be 100% ruled out (less than 20% chance). In all likeliness, these storms should generally be on their last leg if not just showers by the time of their potential arrival (around 10PM-3AM). The only last feature to highlight tonight will be the potential for fog. Though winds may not fully calm overnight, speeds dropping less than 10MPH with broad southeast upslope flow and temperatures falling near their dewpoints (low to mid 60s), may lead to a few areas of condensation or in other words, fog formation. The high resolution models at this point in time, tend to favor east central Nebraska for the "densest" or best potential for fog formation tonight. Though the fog potential really can`t be ruled out for the rest of the region given similar conditions. Confidence is not yet high enough to consider the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory this shift, however, if certain model trends continue, one may be considered during the next forecast cycle tonight. The Main Story this Weekend: The Heat... Despite some morning to early afternoon cloud coverage on Saturday, highs will begin a weekend warmup, stretching into the 80s to low 90s Saturday and the 90s to low triple digits on Sunday (generally the warmest temperatures towards the far southwestern portions of the area). This multi-day warmup will mainly be influenced by the presence of a northward lifting warm front, accompanied by at times breezy southerly winds (gusts as high as 25-35MPH, possibly even a tad bit higher at times). This strong surface warm air advection will additionally feed in moisture on top of the warm airmass (60s and 70s dewpoints), especially across eastern NE/KS. This surge in moisture will ultimately result in inflated heat index values ranging the mid 90s (far west areas) all the way up to 106 degrees (far east areas with higher moisture content). As far as the heat risk for Sunday goes, the area is currently forecast to range Moderate to High Heat Risk classifications (levels 2&3 out of 4). Even though gusty southerly winds may provide some heat relief Sunday afternoon, limited cloud coverage should not be able to limit the solar flux much. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature forecast (an index to measure the solar/wind contribution/influence to/on heat relief) also shows values in the Moderate to High classifications (level 3&4 out of 5). Though the issuance of a Heat Advisory was held off for now (forecast nearing criteria), this heat will likely still be fairly impactful, especially to individuals without an effective hydration or cooling source. Besides the warm temperatures, the mention of precipitation remain out of the forecast through the weekend. Aloft, southwest flow is slated to return as a Northwest U.S. centered trough provokes height/pressure falls across the Rocky Mountains. In addition, a Southeast U.S. ridge is expected to strengthen, partially halting the troughs eastward momentum. This ultimately should keep precipitation chances north of the area until at least Monday. Monday and Beyond... A little more nuance enters the forecast next week, though a few general conclusions can still be made. The main signal that continues to show merit is with the temperatures. Highs from Monday through Friday look to mainly stay in the 90s with overnight lows in the 70s. Besides the hot temperatures, a drier pattern may also lie on the horizon. The only mentionable PoPs in the forecast lie Monday night (10-45%) and Tuesday (25-45%) as the aforementioned trough sweeps by just northwest of the area. Several details regarding these storm`s total coverage and intensity are still to be ironed out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The MVFR stratus deck is starting to lift and break up, eventually lifting to VFR in the late afternoon/early evening. Tonight, ceilings will quickly drop to MVFR and IFR conditions around 07 and 10Z respectively. However, there is some uncertainty with how quickly the IFR ceilings move in. This lower stratus layer is expected to remain overnight through the end of the forecast period. Fog development is also likely between 10-14Z. However, there is some uncertainty with the timing of this fog as well as the visibility impacts, as stronger surface winds will limit fog development. Worst case scenario, visibilities may reduce to under 1 SM. The most likely case is for MVFR/VFR visibilities to develop, as mentioned in the TAF. However, stronger surface winds may limit fog development, keeping visibilities VFR. Surface winds are expected to remain SE around 10-12 kts throughout most of the forecast period, gusting up to 20 kts by the end of the forecast period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Scott
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