Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

185
FXUS63 KOAX 070519
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday won`t be as warm as Saturday and may bring the
  development of some non-supercell funnel clouds.

- Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the
  week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that
  could thwart extreme heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

"Cut-off low, weatherman`s woe." CONUS water vapor imagery
makes it easy to spot the cut-off low spinning over Texas`s
panhandle with it`s eastern half drawing moisture through
eastern Oklahoma, Kansas, and up into Nebraska. The mid-
latitude jet arcs north, ridging well into Canada and bringing
unseasonable heat to much of the Central Plains. Much of the
Dakotas were running 10-15 degrees warmer than normal today.
This CWA`s highs were generally 5-10 degrees warmer than early
June norms.

We had one funnel report from a cell near Villisca, IA this
evening. Low level lapse rates and some surface instability
unencumbered by deep shear left storms capable of stretching any
vertical low-level vortices. A similar environment may develop
on Monday. Any funnels that do develop on Monday should be weak
and short-lived like today`s was.

After a short break in the action, chances of rain begin to
climb again after midnight as the cut-off low approaches from
the southwest, caught up in the southwesterly mean flow. PoPs
climb until peaking in the afternoon with numbers ranging from
about 80% in western Iowa to 10% at Niobrara, NE. Flooding
concerns are mostly limited to far southeast Nebraska and
western Iowa where PWAT values approach 2" and QPF is over
0.4". Showers, however, should be scattered and transient,
meaning they won`t be spending too much time in one location.
This will limit the flood threat. If a shower interrupts your
outdoor plans, waiting 30 mins might solve your dilemma. Most of
the day will be spent under the cloud cover before clearing
west to east in the evening. This will leave highs close to
seasonal norms (82F) or perhaps a couple of degrees cooler.

.MONDAY, TUESDAY, and WEDNESDAY...

With global deterministic guidance bringing a West Coast trof
into the central CONUS a bit faster than the past few runs,
we have pushed temps a bit higher for the beginning of the
week. Temps rebound on Monday ahead of a weak boundary sinking
south across the Dakotas. Highs should get close to 90F as the
front approaches but stalls and kind of washes out across
central Nebraska. Tuesday may be the warmest day of the year so
far with widespread 90s forecast and near 100 expected along the
SD state line. Being early in the season generally makes heat
impacts a little worse and with dewpoints in the 70s, heat
indices will be peaking over 100 on Tuesday afternoon at all
locations and a few others on Wednesday. Wednesday will be
another scorcher, but for those stuck working outdoors, it will
have the benefit of being breezy.

.NEW PATTERN...

An upper trof - crashing through Seattle on Monday - drives
through the High Plains two days later, bringing a cold front
Wednesday night and attendant chance PoPs (10 west - 70% east).

Wednesday afternoon and evening have been highlighted by the
SPC with a 15% chance for severe weather in an area that
stretches from the Canadian border to about Blair, NE and Des
Moines, IA. There will be lots of instability and steep lapse
rates with the high dewpoints and temperatures in place. Storm
modes may begin as supercells capable of tornadoes, but shear
vectors are nearly aligned with the progged front, meaning they
may coalesce into clusters quickly.

Temps, while cooler on Thursday, will actually remain just
above normal with afternoon maximums in the 80s.

Global deterministic models begin to diverge in solutions from
this point, but keep regular chances for summer showers and
storms parading through the Great Plains as the mid-lattitude
jet`s proximity assures regular chances as precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR ceilings at the start of the TAF period are expected to
gradually deteriorate to MVFR from south to north Sunday
morning. A few spotty showers and storms will also be possible
throughout the day Sunday. While exact timing and location of
storms remains uncertain, the best chance for thunder will be
from 17-20Z at KLNK and 18-22Z at KOMA. If precipitation
manages to reach as far north as KOFK, the highest chance for
storms looks to be from 19-23Z. VFR conditions are expected to
return by 00Z this evening at all three TAF sites. Winds will
remain out of the south/southeast at 10 to 12 kts, with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

3-7" or more fell in the Turkey/Swan Creek basins late Friday
evening into the overnight hours, with additional rainfall
ending up in the Big Blue basin as well. Turkey Creek has
reacted strongly near De Witt, which is forecast to hit minor
flood stage Saturday evening, while local reaches of the Big
Blue wait until Monday/Tuesday to crest in action to flood
stage. Confidence in the forecasts for the Big Blue will
increase as we go forward, with potential flood warning to be
issued if the current forecast near Dorchester holds going
forward.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG
HYDROLOGY...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

629
FXUS63 KGID 070539
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Areal Flood Warnings across portions of Hamilton, York,
  Clay, Filmore, Nuckolls and Thayer counties will remain in
  effect this evening and likely tonight as many areas, slow to
  drain, continue to have water-levels near and exceeding their
  stream/river banks.

- A few more isolated storms will be possible tonight (mainly
  across areas south to southeast of the Tri-cities area) and
  Sunday (mainly areas east of HWY-281). These storms should
  remain sub-severe and will be highly scattered in coverage.

- A severe storm or two can`t be ruled out Monday evening/night.
  The best potential will be towards the west to southwest
  portion of the area.

- Temperatures will warm some Monday (mid 80s to lower 90s) and
  Tuesday (mid 90s to low 100s). A cold front passage on
  Wednesday should point highs more towards the 80s to lower 90s
  for the rest of the week.

- A few passing disturbances next week as well as uncertainty on
  exact timing keep precipitation chances in the forecast
  virtually each afternoon for at least a portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026


Short Term...Today through Sunday.

Following some late night thunderstorms across a few mainly northern
and eastern portions of the area, observed spots of minor flooding
and full/overflowing stream/river beds prompt the need to continue
the Areal Flood warnings across a few of our southeastern Nebraska
counties (Hamilton, York, Clay, Filmore, Nuckolls and Thayer) until
at least tonight. For more information regarding the ongoing
flooding, please refer to the hydrology section below.

Today we find ourselves underneath split flow as broad ridging
covers the Northern Plains with a shortwave trough centered across
the Southern Plains. The disturbance down south will be expected to
take a northeastward track up to the Midwest through the first part
of the new week. Outer precipitation bands from this system may
slide by a few southeastern portions of the area this evening and
tonight. A few weak (non-severe) storms will likely pop up between 4-
10PM across a few portions of north central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska (areas mainly south and east of the Tri-Citoes). As the
coverage of precipitation is expected to be more of a "hit or miss"
and highly scattered rather than widespread in coverage, PoPs for
any given location remain on the weaker side (10-30% for the
southeastern third of the area, mainly locations southeast of a line
from Geneva, NE to Red Cloud, NE to Plainville, KS).

For Sunday, a few scattered showers and weak storms will disperse
across the eastern portion of the area (mainly areas east of HWY-
281) with up to 30-50% PoPs hovering across the eastern fringes of
the area through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, temperatures
tonight will cool down to the low to mid 60s with light winds
remaining out of the southeast. Overcast skies filling in across the
overnight hours will begin to clear out across the later morning to
later afternoon hours Sunday (clouds making up the outer cirrus
shield of the southeast passing disturbance). Highs for sunday,
despite the partial cloud coverage, should be able to return to the
low to mid 80s Sunday afternoon.


Long Term...Monday and Beyond

A northwest located trough will gradually push out the Northern
Plains ridge, later retuning the mid to upper level flow to
southwesterlies by Monday. A quick passing shortwave disturbance on
Monday may throw a few more scattered storms into the area (25-50%).
The potential of severe weather could return to a limited (southwest)
portion of the area Monday evening/night as increasing instability
from warming temperatures could add some extra intensity to a few
storms. The rest of the forecast period (through next Saturday)
continues to bring at least a limited afternoon to nighttime pop up
storm chance to at least a portion of the area. These daily chances
come from increasing uncertainty on how the upper-level pattern will
unfold (when a few minor disturbances embedded within the
approaching trough will pass through the Region).

Temperatures will be heating up into the middle of the week as highs
transition from the 80s on Monday to the 90s and low 100s on Tuesday
and Wednesday (Heat indices possibly as high as 105 degrees). This
warm up will best be assisted by clearing skies and steady southerly
winds winding up Tuesday afternoon. A frontal passage on Wednesday
should place a cap on the warming trend, though the 80s to low 90s
look to be possible each day for the of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Southerly winds will be present through 12z then winds will
switch to the southeast with stronger winds during the
afternoon. Low ceilings are expected beginning overnight by 09z
and will continue until around 16z/17z. Showers are expected
later overnight with thunderstorms possible during the early
afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Flood water across several of our counties will be slow to
recede within the hardest hit areas. The flooding in some areas
is expected to persist through tonight and possibly into Sunday
morning.

The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight
include:
West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham)
Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County)
Lincoln Creek (Hamilton and York Counties)
School Creek downstream of Sutton
Turkey Creek in Fillmore County
Little and Big Sandy Creek (Corner of Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls,
Thayer Counties)

Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be
isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt
HYDROLOGY...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion