Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

018
FXUS63 KOAX 080525
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and
  storm chances from Wednesday into early next week. Strong to
  severe storms will be possible at times (5-15% chance on a
  given day).

- Temperatures will alternate between seasonal norms (highs in
  the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday) and well-above normal
  (highs 70s for the weekend.)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Evening analysis showed a surface warm front advancing
northward, stretching from roughly Columbus to Omaha to Clarinda
as of 10 PM. North of the front, temperatures were in the upper
30s to around 40 and south of the front, temperatures were in
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warm air advection will continue
overnight as a low level jet ramps up ahead of an approaching
low currently over the WY/SD border. As a result, temperatures
will generally hold steady or climb into Wednesday morning. In
addition, we`ll see surface winds strengthen as we go through
the night, with model soundings suggesting we mix into some of
that low level jet by 9-10 AM and some 35-45 mph gusts reach the
surface. The low (along with a stronger cutoff low over the
Canadian border) will help drag a cold front through the area
during the day and given the warm air and moisture advection
ahead of the front, said frontal passage could trigger a few
showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests
any development will likely hold off until the front has pushed
southeast of Omaha and Lincoln. Instability will be pretty
limited, though there could be just enough for a few stronger
storms capable of hail, and with an inverted V sounding, can`t
rule out some gusty winds with a collapsing storm.

The front is favored to stall in or just immediately southeast
of the area overnight. Moisture transport will ramp up again and
could lead to additional showers and storms over southeast NE
and southwest IA into Thursday morning (15-30% chance). Some
shortwave energy will then slide through during the day,
providing additional forcing for ascent and leading to more
widespread showers and storms along the front as it inches back
northward. A few pieces of guidance hint at just enough
instability and shear to yield a strong to severe storm threat
in far southeast NE and far southwest IA Thursday afternoon
evening, though we`ll have to see how morning convection pans
out and how things trend.

The front will stay in the vicinity into Saturday before
shooting back north through the area. As additional shortwaves
slide through and moisture transport points into the area, we`ll
see daily shower and storm chances. Still lots of details to be
worked out, but there will be severe weather chances at times,
with guidance suggesting some decent instability moving in along
with NAEFS mean precipitable water values of 1.25" or more,
good for the 99th+ percentile of climatology for this time of
year. So potential is there for some heavier rain as well, but
we`ll have to see how things pan out regarding timing/forcing.
The shower and storm chances will continue into next week as a
larger scale trough sets up over the western CONUS, with various
bits of shortwave energy ejecting out of it and through our
area before the trough itself deamplifies a bit and moves
through toward the middle part of next week. As it stands, we`re
seeing at least a 30-40% chance of showers and storms every day
through Tuesday, and 60-80+% chances at times Thursday and
during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period, though a few
patchy MVFR and IFR clouds are slow to clear out of far northeast
Nebraska. Southeasterly winds have already begun to increase, with
gusts up to 20-30 kts at times. LLWS (southerly to southwesterly at
50-55 kts around 2000 ft agl) will likely effect all TAF sites until
14-16Z this morning. Surface winds will continue to veer to the
southwest through mid morning, and eventually become northwesterly
by late morning/early afternoon, before finally weakening this
evening. The northerly wind shift is expected to reach KOFK by 16Z,
and make it`s way to KLNK and KOMA closer to 20Z. There remains
a 15-20% chance for a few spotty showers to develop between KOMA
and KLNK around 16-20Z, however confidence in any impacts at the
terminals remains low. The better chance for shower and thunder
storm activity will likely remain southeast of I-80 this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

636
FXUS63 KGID 080551
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance pushing mainly east along the
  US/Canada border will push a surface front south through the
  region during the day on Wednesday.

- Along with making for a tricky temperature forecast for
  Wednesday, this front will be the focus for late day/evening
  thunderstorm activity...some of which could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Current timing of the front is expected to push to the far SE
  corner of the forecast area by late after Wednesday...potentially
  push it (and storm chances) outside of the area altogether.

- A more active upper level pattern developing through the rest
  of this week into early next week will bring the potential
  for periodic upper level disturbances/precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently...

It was a dreary start to the day across the forecast area, with
widespread low level stratus. This cloud cover has diminished
from south to north through the day, with only far northern
areas still sitting under mostly cloudy skies. Looking
aloft...upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow
across the local area, sitting between one shortwave in the
NM/TX area and another moving into the Nrn Rockies. At the
surface...the day started out with easterly winds across the
area, which have turned more south- southeasterly through the
day...thanks to high pressure shifting further east over the
Great Lakes, while a trough axis remains over the High Plains.
The plentiful cloud cover and gradual northward diminishing
trend made for a difficult temperature forecast...but overall
looks like highs will work out fairly well, with 40s in the far
north to low 70s in the south.

Wednesday...

Main feature of interest in the very short-term period will be
that above mentioned disturbance working its way into the Nrn
Rockies. Models are in good agreement showing this system
sliding generally east along the US/Canada border tonight on
through Wednesday, with the center of the low roughly over the
western MN/Canada border by evening. The main impact with this
system will be with the accompanying surface frontal
boundary...which will be pushed south through the area during
the daytime hours. Really hasn`t been any notable change in the
models as far as timing goes...showing the front roughly in the
Tri-Cities area around 18Z, the either right along the SE corner
of the forecast area or just outside by late afternoon-evening.
The daytime passage makes for a tricky temperature
forecast...the gradient from NW-SE could end up tighter than the
low 60s-mid 70s currently forecast. This front is expected to
be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm
development...so its late-day location is another forecast
concern. Even if the timing ends up on the slower side, it looks
to be the far SE corner with chances for thunderstorms...a
quicker passage means we could get missed altogether. It looks
like it`ll be a close call. Thunderstorms that develop would
have the potential to be on the strong-severe side...SPC Day 2
Marginal Risk area continues to include most of our north
central KS area. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary
threat. Through the overnight hours, that front looks to stall
out as it loses its upper level push...but it`s not out of the
question we could have linger elevated precipitation north of
the front with models showing an increased low-level jet. Best
chances would remain near/south of the NE/KS state line.

Rest of this week into early next week...

Overall not any significant changes made to the forecast, with
models continuing to show the potential for a more active
pattern through the mid-longer term periods. Models showing
periodic shortwave disturbance moving through the Plains...both
in the more zonal flow to end the work week, and the
southwesterly flow expected to develop this weekend-early next
week as a larger trough axis move onto and in from the West
Coast. Right now the highest chances are in the Thu-Sun time
frame...but hard to have a ton of confidence in timing/location
of these disturbance and chances the further out in time you go.


On Thursday, models show the stalled surface boundary pushing
back north...with some uncertainty just how far north it gets
before the next upper level disturbance/sfc cold front moves in
from the NW. This boundary will again be the focus for
thunderstorm development late in the day, and on into the
evening/overnight hours thanks a stronger LLJ. Overall best
chances for storms and any strong-severe storms looks to be
across southern areas...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area
continues to clip SSErn areas. Hail/wind would again be the
primary threats.

As far as temperatures go...Thursday is another lower-confidence
forecast...with some models showing iso-sct precip around
through much of the day...forecast has right around 60 in the
far NE to mid 70s in the SSW. Friday is currently the overall
coolest day with highs in the 50s-low 60s...with 70s returning
for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Latest UEX VAD confirms a 55-60kt southerly low level jet (LLJ)
in place over the terminals tonight, which is leading to stout
low level wind shear (LLWS) - despite relatively breezy
conditions at the surface. The LLJ will gradually veer towards
dawn, then mix out around 13-14Z. Expect at least a couple hour
surge in S/SW wind gusts after sunrise (13-16Z) as mixing
increases, particularly for GRI. A cold front will move through
the terminals between 15-17Z, causing winds to veer to SW (and
briefly weaken immediately along the front) then increase out of
the NW/N. Wind speeds/gusts will gradually ease during the late
afternoon and early evening. Additional wind direction change
to the E is expected near the end of the valid TAF period.

VFR expected through the period with only minor coverage of high
clouds from time to time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion