Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

965
FXUS63 KOAX 210414
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-30% chance of some showers and storms through 10
  AM Tuesday, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A
  few could produce gusty winds or small hail, but severe
  weather is not expected.

- Cooler weather returns by Wednesday with high temperatures
  falling into the mid 70s to mid 80s through Friday. There
  will be increasing chances for showers and storms Wednesday
  through Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend, with widespread
  90s by Sunday..

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Aside from a couple pop up storms earlier, it had been pretty
quiet across the region as the well-advertised cold front
continued its southward progress across the area. That said, a
few storms had started to pop up in vicinity of the front in
southwest Iowa as of 1030 PM. With the front quickly scouring
out instability, these should be fairly short-lived, but a few
could produce some small hail or gusty winds through 1-2 AM.
Guidance then suggests we`ll see more development well behind
the front after midnight as some weak shortwave energy clips the
area and we see a little strengthening frontogenesis as
northerly low level flow ramps up. However, with lack of
instability, not expecting any severe weather with these, and
even lightning strikes may be few and far between.

That precip should exit south/dissipate toward 9-10 AM and give
way to a warm, but much more "manageable" day, with highs in
the mid 80s to around 90 and a nice north breeze. The HRRR also
continues to show smoke moving in behind the front, but keeps
near-surface concentrations rather low, with upstream
observations currently showing no visibility reductions, so
thinking it`ll manifest mainly as some milky looking skies.

We`ll be much cooler Wednesday through Friday, as the upper
level ridge axis gets pushed well back to our west and a
secondary cold front passes through. Highs will fall into the
mid 70s to lower 80s all three days. In addition, we`ll have
several chances for more widespread showers and storms as
various shortwaves push through the area. The first now looks to
arrive Wednesday afternoon with a second stronger and more
persistent stream of shortwave energy arriving early Thursday
and lingering into early Friday. Chances are generally in the
40-80% range at times through this period, with the highest
being mostly in southeast NE, where consensus paints a 30- 50%
chance of at least 1" of rain. Definitely still some timing
kinks to work out as we get closer, as there will likely be some
occasional breaks in the rain and people will certainly want to
get out and enjoy the temperatures in the 70s.

Unfortunately, those nicer temperatures will be short-lived as
the upper level ridge axis pushes back eastward this weekend.
Expect highs to climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s on
Saturday followed by widespread 90s Sunday into next week. There
could also be a couple additional storm chances in there as the
warm and humid airmass returns and a few weak shortwaves ripple
through the flow, but still lots of details to work out there.
As far as severe weather chances go, various machine learning
algorithms generally keep us around or under 5% over the next 7
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Spotty showers and storms will remain possible this evening as a
front pushes south through the area, with potential for the
strongest storms to produce 50+ mph wind gusts. However,
potential for strong storms at the TAF sites looks to be low
(10% or less through midnight). Additional shower and storm
development is expected after 06Z including at OMA and LNK, but
these will be much weaker and may not even have lightning.
Generally expect VFR conditions, though may see a brief drop to
MVFR with any heavier showers. Otherwise, winds behind the
front will become northerly with gusts of 18-22 kts by mid to
late morning Tuesday with a few lingering clouds around 5000 ft.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

029
FXUS63 KGID 202320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps well in the 90s/low 100s combined with dewpoints in the
  60s-70s has brought heat index values over 100 to the entire
  forecast area this afternoon. No changes made to the Heat
  Advisory, which runs through 10PM this evening.

- A gradually southward-sinking surface cold front may spark off
  a few thunderstorms late this afternoon-evening, mainly across
  northern portions of the area. Can`t rule out a few stronger
  storms, but severe weather doesn`t look likely.

- This cold front brings relief from the heat Tuesday...while
  temps are still in the 80s-90s, dewpoints are forecast to be
  lower in the 50s-near 60.

- A more active pattern develops across the Central Plains
  mainly for Wednesday-Thursday, with periodic shortwave
  disturbances bringing precipitation to the entire area. Not
  looking like a non-stop rain that entire time...but at least
  the chances have returned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this
afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in
place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure
remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS,
roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends
up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a
low pressure system working its way east into the western Great
Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is
helping drive a surface cold front south through the
Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into
SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little
issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making
things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which
currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread
heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA-
wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this
evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...


This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the
region this evening and tonight...and while it`s arriving too
late to provide any help with today`s temperatures, it may aid
in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon
and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing
from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far
northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our
area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question.
While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms
will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm
mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The
area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but
any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail
and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on
Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether
or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing
in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to
the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity
developing along an elevated front lagging behind across
northern portions of the area. Because there are differences
with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after
03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday
with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some
uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated
showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does
linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the
cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds,
which look to be northeasterly through the day...and
temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s
today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the
NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast
dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a
difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the
forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time
frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during
that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of
waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level
disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps
already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances
through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half
of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the
edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through
later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the
potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing
the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south.
Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this
point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area
not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming
weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as
models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across
central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation
chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the
70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable
winds are expected this evening as they shift from the south to
the north behind a frontal passage. Behind the front north-
northeasterly winds around 10kts are expected overnight,
increasing Tuesday morning with gusts around 20kts at KEAR.
Winds decrease late in the TAF period. FEW-BKN clouds around
100-150 are possible throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion