Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

548
FXUS63 KOAX 291843
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
143 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest
  potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations
  will be Thursday and Friday nights.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 30%) at
  times through this weekend. Highest potential will be this
  evening, Thursday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming
  into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Relatively quiet and cool across the region early this
afternoon with surface high pressure in control. However, there
were some light radar returns along the NE/SD border ahead of an
incoming front and shortwave energy. No obs points were
reporting rain nearby likely owing to some dry air still in
place, but a few counties to the north, there were some rain obs
with some stronger returns. This precip will continue working
southward through the afternoon and overnight, bringing some
spotty light showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to the
area before exiting Thursday morning. It shouldn`t amount to
much, just a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch with any
storms. Otherwise, overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Can`t completely rule out some frost in low-lying
areas in northeast NE, but cloud cover should keep us just warm
enough to preclude widespread development.

We`ll stay under a similar pattern Thursday and Friday with a
trough axis/cyclonic flow aloft and some shortwave energy
rounding the base of the trough both days. Latest short term
guidance is in pretty good agreement we`ll see additional spotty
shower and storm development by the afternoon as that shortwave
energy slides through. Some guidance even suggests the non-
supercell tornado parameter will be 1 or higher, implying
potential for funnel clouds. Lots of smaller scale details to
work out there (e.g. will there be a lingering boundary in the
area from early morning precip), but something to keep an eye
on. Otherwise, temperatures will remain on the cooler side, with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. In addition, we`re
expecting lows in the lower to mid 30s both Thursday and Friday
nights. Given the trend toward clouds or even precip, at least
Thursday night, confidence is a little lower that we`ll get cold
enough for a true freeze, but certainly looks like a candidate
for at least another Frost Advisory in part of the area.
Regardless, if you planted anything already, you`ll probably
want to cover it up those nights.

By Saturday, upper level ridging over the western CONUS will
start to slide eastward, bringing some warmer temperatures to
the area. Expect mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday followed by
widespread 70s Sunday into early next week. However, we`ll still
be under northwest flow with guidance hinting at a train of
weak shortwaves and surface boundaries sliding through at
various times bringing additional precip chances. That said,
moisture availability will be rather sparse, so not looking like
any high-end widespread precip through Monday. If you`re lucky,
you`ll see a few hundredths of an inch. Meanwhile, the ridge
will start to break down as a cutoff low moves onshore over CA
and associated energy starts to approach the area by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring our next more widespread
precip chances. However, still a lot of spread in exact track of
this system, with some guidance keeping most of it to our
south. For now, have 20-50% chances from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday, highest Tuesday evening/night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with lingering clouds
between 5000-10000 ft agl. Expect winds to remain under 10 kts,
though direction will be changing throughout the period,
generally with a westerly to northwesterly component during the
day today and Thursday and southerly this evening/overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

853
FXUS63 KGID 291752
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions may develop overnight into Wednesday
  morning as temperatures drop to near or slightly below freezing.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for the whole area.

- Patchy fog is expected overnight into Wednesday morning for
  portions of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms may move over portions of the area
  (15% to 50% chance) late this afternoon into this evening.

- Frost/freeze conditions may develop Thursday night and again
  Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A surface high is centered in Nebraska and extends southward to
Texas and north to South Dakota. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly light out of
the north with some variation from the northeast to northwest. Winds
may begin to become more westerly late during the overnight hours.
Skies will be clear over portions of the area overnight.
Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the mid 20s to mid
30s. These conditions may result in areas of frost and/or freeze
during the overnight and into the morning hours. A Frost Advisory is
in effect for the whole area until 9 AM. Fog is also a concern
across the area overnight but do not think at this time that it will
be dense or widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Product. Will
continue to monitor in case an advisory is needed. Winds will be
mostly light and variable today with temperatures warming up into
the low to mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms may move in from the
west and northwest late this afternoon into this evening as a
shortwave moves overhead (15% to 50% chance). No severe weather is
expected. Winds will remain light tonight with low temperatures in
the mid 30s to low 40s. Frost and freeze conditions may develop
Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night into
Saturday morning with light winds, mostly clear to clear skies, and
temperatures dropping to near or slightly below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- No truly significant changes noted versus previous 7-day
  "forecast package" issued early this AM.

- Simply making a broad commentary/big picture theme of the
  various Key Messages above, this forecaster`s biggest takeaway
  is that we`re really looking at a fairly ideal weather pattern
  for this of year...especially from a lack-of-hazardous-
  weather (mainly from a severe thunderstorm/fire weather
  perspective and not counting frost/freeze as truly hazardous),
  and also from a "drought damage control" perspective. In
  other words, although we`re not expecting truly
  heavy/"drought- busting" rains over the next week, we ARE
  calling for only near-to-slightly above normal temperatures
  (at most) and an overall lack of windy days...keeping soil
  moisture evaporation to a relative minimum (especially
  compared to earlier this spring).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. May 5):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Although we had at least modest rain chances in today`s forecast
for a while, this forecaster will readily admit that the
coverage/duration of steady/numerous showers today has exceeded
expectations from 24 hours ago. Instead of being more
isolated/scattered, showers have instead been more widespread in
coverage (especially in our Nebraska zones). While low freezing
levels and resultant radar "bright banding" caused raw radar
over-estimation of rain amounts in some places (especially early
this morning...word of caution on that), ground truth from
dozens of airport/mesonet stations confirms that the vast
majority of our CWA has picked up (or will still pick up) at
least 0.05-0.15" today, with isolated/spotty pockets of at least
0.25" (including much of Dawson County which was largely missed
by heavier rain over the weekend). One one final "past weather"
note, based on obs JUST west of our CWA at North Platte/Broken
Bow, it`s possible that a touch of wet/slushy snow mixed into
the rain mainly in our extreme northwestern CWA, but likely with
zero accumulation within our borders.

As of this writing, rain has cleared out of most of the
southwestern half of our CWA, while showers continue drifting
across much of our northeast half. In the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
that a low amplitude (but very evident) shortwave trough is in
the process of passing directly overhead our Central Plains
region, with the rain gradually exiting from west-southwest to
east-northeast as it passes. At the surface, surface high
pressure centered slightly to our north has promoted fairly
light (mainly around 10 MPH or less) north-northeasterly breezes
today.

Due heavily to the "over-acheiving" coverage of rain and
associated widespread clouds, high temps this afternoon will
easily fall 5+ degrees short of expectations from only 12 hours
ago in some areas (especially our northern 2/3rds)...with highs
now expected to range from no more than mid-upper 40s in most of
our Nebraska zones, to low-mid 50s mainly in KS and Thayer
County area.


- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight):
Between 7-9 PM, any lingering light showers still ongoing in our
far northern/eastern CWA will steadily depart off to the east.
Off to our west, a few showers/weak storms will likely develop
over southwest NE/northwest KS, but should fade away before
potentially infiltrating our far southwestern CWA.


- LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED AM (post-midnight):
Although there is very high confidence in dry conditions and a
departure of mid-high level clouds, there is still at least
modest uncertainty in how efficiently lingering lower level
stratus clears out. However, confidence is gradually increasing
that we`ll likely see a pretty efficient clear-out (except for
perhaps some lingering patches of stratus here or there), as a
roughly 1023 millibar surface high pressure center settles
directly over our CWA. ASSUMING skies clear as expected,
temperatures will surely drop quite efficiently, with late night
breezes mainly averaging under 5 MPH from the west-northwest. If
anything, low temps were nudged upward very slightly (perhaps
not the right direction?), but the vast majority of the CWA is
now expected to bottom out 29-36 degrees. While especially some
northern/western counties will surely drop slightly below
freezing, areas of frost are likely to develop almost anywhere
in our CWA. Instead of "splitting hairs" a bit and issuing both
a somewhat marginal Freeze Warning and a Frost Advisory, decided
to simplify messaging a bit and issue a CWA-wide Frost Advisory
to cover the main impact to tender vegetation (a Freeze Warning
would have been more strongly considered had we been calling for
a more widespread "hard freeze" of 28-or-colder). In other
departments, higher-res visibility such as from HRRR suggests
that especially the western 1/3 of our CWA will be prone to at
least patchy fog development (and possibly spotty dense fog
reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less). While the newly-wetted
ground and clear skies argue FOR fog formation, the light
westerly/downslope breeze often inhibits widespread fog
development. Although introduced "patchy to areas" of fog to our
official forecast and also our Hazardous Weather Outlook
(HWOGID), definitely did not have enough confidence to issue a
proactive Dense Fog Advisory (something to watch though).


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
In the wake of any early-AM Frost/Freeze and possible fog
concerns, the majority of the day will be dry under mostly
sunny/partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and somewhat
variable in direction, but mainly some variation of westerly or
northerly. High temps were changed little, with most places
aimed pretty uniformly between 62-65 degrees.

However, already by late afternoon (mainly after 4 PM), yet
another low amplitude wave diving in from the west-northwest
will spark more chances for showers/possibly a few weak (non-
severe) developing over and/or drifting into mainly our
northern/western counties.


- WEDNESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although coverage is only expected to be isolated/scattered,
much of the night is expected to feature at least spotty
coverage of showers/a few weak storms, and quite a bit more
cloud cover (especially post-midnight) versus tonight. ASSUMING
this occurs, we should have a "one night break" from
frost/freeze concerns (except for MAYBE our far north-northwest
counties). Low temps are aimed mainly 38-43 degrees most
areas...slightly above frost development. This will need closely
monitored however, especially if skies look to be clearer than
currently expected.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Over the course of these 48 hours, our flow aloft turns more
northerly than northwesterly, as at least a few weak
disturbances drop southward through our region on the backside
of a large-scale trough anchored from the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada. At the surface, the main feature during this
time will be a weak cold front dropping southward through our
area Thurs daytime-evening, kicking up northerly breezes a bit
(gusts around 20 MPH). Precipitation-wise, chances for
isolated/scattered showers and some weak thunderstorms are
highest Thursday daytime (and mainly in the southern half of our
CWA), before any rain chances depart southward Thursday night
and followed by dry weather for Friday. High temps still appear
very similar both days (mainly low-mid 60s) and same story with
low temps both nights (mainly low-mid 30s). Assuming no
unexpected enhanced cloud cover, BOTH Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri
night-Sat AM will be good candidates for additional Frost
Advisories (maybe Freeze Warnings?).


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
The vast majority of the weekend currently looks dry and
overall-pleasant by most folks` standards, with warmer air
arriving and resulting in high temps generally near-70 on
Saturday, and mainly mid-upper 70s Sunday (and with relatively
tame breezes). Saturday in particular looks almost "guaranteed"
dry, but honestly Sunday- Sunday night carry a few more question
marks as both the ECMWF/GFS depict at least spotty rain at least
in the general vicinity of our CWA. As for overnight low temps,
they appear to trend slightly milder (mainly upper 30s-mid 40s),
taking frost/freeze concerns back out of the picture.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
As usual, uncertainty in the details grows by this range, but
our official forecast brings back various mainly small (20-30%)
chances for intermittent showers and (probably) weak
thunderstorms, as we remain in the path of at least a few
disturbances diving down from the north-northwest. High temps
are aimed very similar both days...most areas low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Relatively high confidence VFR conditions anticipated at both
terminals through the period.

Mostly clear skies early this afternoon will give way to
increasing mid-level clouds over the next few hours as an upper
level disturbance approaches from the west. Expect the bulk of
this disturbance to pass south of the terminals during the
evening/overnight hours, with BKN CIGS around 10 KFT being the
main impact. That said, a few of the CAMS are indicating that a
few showers/-TSRAs could impact the terminals between roughly
30/01-31/06Z, and while no mention was included in the 18Z TAFs,
would not be surprised if something briefly clipped either
terminal with near MVFR CIGS possible at times tonight. This
disturbance should be well south of the terminals by daybreak
Thursday, with high confidence VFR conditions returning Thursday
morning along with steady westerly winds 12-16KTS aft 30/13Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi/Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion