Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

873
FXUS63 KOAX 311719
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue today with breezy winds, followed
  by a brief cool down in the 30s for Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures quickly rebound this weekend with continued dry
  weather through the first half of the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning features northwesterly flow over
the central CONUS, sandwiched between ridging over the western third
and broad troughing over the eastern third. Weak mid/upper waves
continue to waft through the flow with their precipitation missing
the area to the north and east as a northerly jet streak steers
things away. Another warm day (upper 40s and 50s) is forecast with
winds starting out west-southwesterly before shifting northwesterly
as a dry cold front passes through the area. This change in airmass
will come as a clipper system/associated jet max move through the
northwesterly flow to the northeast of the area. Gradually clearing
skies today will be replaced by a deck of low clouds overnight that
a few ensemble members squeeze a sprinkle/flurry out of, but will
generally be to no effect on any surfaces in the area as we fall
into the teens and twenties overnight.

Thursday and Beyond:

The remainder of the forecast period picks up the dry start to the
forecast and has temperatures that have taken as step down from the
warm mid-week. Highs Thursday and Friday will largely top out in the
30s, with temps increasing as you go south and west. The split jet
pattern in the upper levels will continue to ward off deeply cold
air to the north while a subtropical jet south of the area keeps any
meaningful moisture return from occurring. Temperatures this
weekend will climb to the 40s Saturday before topping out in the
50s and potentially 60s as a low-amplitude ridge shifts through
the central CONUS that slowly flattens out into zonal flow
through mid-week. Though there is considerable disagreement
between ensemble solutions in the timing and placement, some
form of compact shortwave/cutoff low will eject from the
California coast and will provide our next meaningful
precipitation chances Thursday/Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions continue this afternoon and evening. Winds have
gradually become more westerly early this afternoon. Winds
become northwesterly later this afternoon before a cold front
brings northerly winds later this evening. Low clouds with
potential MVFR ceilings arrives tonight. At this time, guidance
has low clouds moving in and out of terminals within a couple
hours of frontal passage, but clouds may linger at OMA and LNK.
Otherwise, winds become light and begin to swing around towards
the east by tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

299
FXUS63 KGID 311822
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and mild/warm weather for the next week, with a
  brief retreat to near normal temperatures Thursday/Friday.

- Temperatures Thursday/Friday will be held down from
  significant cloud cover associated with a "backdoor" cold
  front that should retreat to the northeast over the weekend.

- Ensembles are showing some indications for a pattern shift
  towards the middle third of January - cooler and maybe more
  active, but this is obviously still a ways off.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 323 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Another quiet night across the local area with just a few thin
high clouds passing across the area from the north. With
light westerly surface winds, temperatures are fairly mild for
late December, with morning temps mostly in the middle 20s.

For this afternoon, opted to increase high temperatures a couple
of degrees from the previous forecast as after over-achieving a
bit yesterday, see no reason why we will not over-achieve again
today with limited cloud cover and westerly low level flow. A
weak backdoor cold front will then edge into the area from the
northeast to start the New Year, with modestly cooler
temperatures New Years Day and closer to normal temps for the
2nd as significant cloud cover will help hold down afternoon
temperatures. This front will then retreat to the northeast over
the weekend, with a return to very mild temperatures (10-20
degrees above normal) in the forecast for the remainder of the
period (Sunday onward).

With high pressure forecast to persist across the local area
aloft, dry weather is anticipated through the period with the
next potential sign of precipitation not coming until the ridge
breaks down possibly toward the latter part of next week.
Several ensemble members of both the EC/GFS continue to hint at
a possible return to some precipitation around the 9th or 10th
of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place across the
CONUS thanks to deep troughing from the Hudson Bay to New
England and broad ridging centered over the N Rockies. This
leaves us in-between under fast NW upper flow and within
downsloping/dry low level flow. Temperatures have risen
nicely today into the upper 40s and lower 50s under partly to
mostly sunny skies. Quiet and mild conditions will continue into
tonight, which will provide a nice springboard for temperatures
on New Year`s Eve/Wednesday. Latest forecast still calls for 50s
areawide, and think areas from around Arapahoe to Stockton could
even get into the low 60s. Winds will be a bit more NWrly and
still mild and dry, but not so much so that the warmth comes
with fire weather concerns. RHs should remain mostly upper 20s
to 30s, and gusts only 20-25 MPH. So a bit elevated - and fuels
are certainly dry - but not really a "near-critical" setup.

A rather significant front/temperature gradient will gradually
back into the area from the NE on Thursday. This could set the
stage for a fairly tight temp gradient from SW to NE across
Neb/Kan...ranging from near 50 along Hwy 283, to only 30s along
and E of Hwy 81. Low level mixing remains very weak into Friday,
so this will keep temps cool for one more day in the 30s to mid
40s. Fortunately, the cooler (but still only near-normal) will
come without much wind chill.

Temperatures warm up yet again for the weekend into early next
week. In fact, latest ensembles are in good agreement in
widespread 50s and even some lower 60s for Sun-Mon. Neither day
looks overly windy, so once again, the nice weather should come
without any significant fire wx threat. Lows will also remain
mild and only slightly below freezing.

Ensembles also indicate and general downward trend in
temperatures for the second half of next week, potentially
setting the stage for an actual wintry pattern for the middle
third, or so, of January. Obviously, any significant pattern
change is still at least 10+ days out, but something we`ll be
monitoring over the coming days...because there`s simply not
much else to look at. Ha! Until then, enjoy the dry and mild end
to 2025 and start to 2026!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility through the first
11-12 hours. However, the latter 12-13 hours starting late
tonight carries increasing probability of at least IFR/MVFR
ceiling and/or visibility...but with BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE in the "finer details" even at this closer time
range.

As for winds, they will not be a significant issue, with the
overall-strongest speeds occurring right away this afternoon
(sustained 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT), but then sustained speeds
mainly near-to-below 10KT through most of the remainder of the
period. However, there will be various directional
changes...from westerly to northwesterly this afternoon...then
from northerly to easterly tonight...and finally from
southeasterly to southerly Thursday morning.

- Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainty:
As of this writing, the leading edge of a deck of low stratus
and at least light fog is located approximately 240 miles north-
northeast of KGRI/KEAR, and will slowly-but-surely approach the
area over the next several hours thanks to an approaching "back
door" cold front. There is actually fairly high confidence that
these low clouds and/or fog will first reach KGRI around
05Z/KEAR around 06Z, but what happens in the ensuing several
hours currently carries quite a bit of uncertainty. The main
uncertainties involve: Will the lowest ceilings/visibilities
(perhaps at least IFR category for both) last only for a few
hours (most favored at KGRI) or perhaps stick around for most or
all of 6-12 hours (most favored at KEAR)? For now, have taken a
"best guess" in TAFs, with both sites experiencing several
hours of MVFR/IFR ceilings, and KEAR eventually dipping to at
least MVFR visibility in fog by mid-morning. However, once
again, uncertainty in exact ceiling/visibility categories and
timing is running below-average at this time and later TAF
issuances will hopefully gain a better handle on things.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion