Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

441
FXUS63 KOAX 091833
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
133 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next
  week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100
  degrees.

- Most days are looking dry through the next week, though we
  could see a few spotty showers and storms produce gusty winds
  Friday. Severe weather is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Fairly quiet close to home early this afternoon with just some
lingering cloud cover as a weak shortwave was passing through
the area. Farther west, stronger shortwave energy was crossing
the Rockies and interacting with a north-south oriented boundary
to lead to shower and storm development. CAMs are generally in
good agreement that these push east across NE overnight and into
Friday morning, but mostly dissipate prior to reaching our
forecast area. However, a few solutions indicate potential for a
lingering MCV to move across northeast NE while the primary
shortwave clips far southeast NE and southwest IA. Therefore,
wouldn`t completely count on a dry morning (10-30% chance of
rain). In addition, guidance seems to hint at spotty afternoon
storm development, likely along remnant outflow from any morning
precip. Very little shear will be in place for storm
organization, but dry low levels in model soundings indicate
some potential for downbursts/gusty winds, with the 09.12Z HRRR
notably showing some 40-45 mph gusts emanating from collapsing
storms.

Beyond those storm chances Friday, we`re looking at a pretty
dry next 7 days as upper level ridging starts to build in and
amplify over the center of the CONUS. This will also lead to
rising temperatures with highs generally gaining around 2-3
degrees each day into next week, with mid 80s for most on
Friday, upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday, and widespread 90s by
Tuesday. The "good" news is that trends are toward maybe
slightly lower temperatures than previous forecasts and true
gulf moisture/humidity looks to be held to our south. Therefore,
dewpoints should stay fairly steady in the 60s, though being
July in corn country, it`ll still feel humid, as heat indices
climb into the mid 90s to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Expect MVFR ceilings early in the period to scatter out with
cloud bases generally rising through the afternoon and VFR
conditions thereafter. Some guidance hints at some showers and
isolated storms pushing toward the area 12-15Z Friday, but
chances currently remain below 20%, highest at OFK and LNK, so
did not include mention at this time. Otherwise, winds will be
light and northerly to northeasterly through most of the period,
though should become southeasterly at OFK toward 03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

427
FXUS63 KGID 091929
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms, once again moving in from the west (arriving between
  10PM and 1AM), could bring a few gusty winds and small hail to
  mainly west/southwest portions of the area. The overall severe
  threat will be limited.

- Showers with a few embedded storms may persist across a few
  locations Friday morning to early afternoon.

- Temperatures will soon be on a gradual rise over the next
  several days with an at least 4+ day streak of 90+ degree
  highs expected next week.

- No precipitation chances lie anywhere in the forecast past
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026


The Main Story Tonight: Storms Rolling in from the West...

The main story of the day will be the chance for yet another round
of storms late tonight into Friday morning. A weak shortwave
disturbance popping out of the Rockies today has already started to
stir up a cluster of cumulus and scattered storms across eastern
Wyoming/Colorado. Though a few of these storms are expected to
become severe as they cross through the rest of eastern Colorado and
the Nebraska Panhandle, given the time of arrival of these storms
(arriving  between 10PM-1AM), there is some question to how much
energy/momentum may actually be left in the tank. The High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have been fairly
consistent in portraying these storms to be in the stage of decay as
they cross into the South Central Nebraska / North Central Kansas
region.

Generally these storm will be crossing into a less favorable
environment, though 1,5000-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE as well as 20-35kt
deep layer shear may still be just supportive enough for
maintaining one or two stronger to marginally severe storms. IF any
storm is able to stay severe, the main threats would be for gusty
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60MPH with a few areas of hail possible
(up to quarter sized). The areas that would be the most susceptible
for these stronger storms wold be areas west of HWY-183 in Nebraska
as well as a few north central Kansas locations. The Storm
Prediction Center has kept a Marginal risk of severe weather (level
1 of 5) for locations west of a line from Cozad to Alma in Nebraska
and down to Beloit in Kansas. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) clips
southwest portions of Rooks and Osborne counties.

Though the severe threat will be fast to diminish tonight, a few
weak thunderstorms embedded within a larger array of showers will
still be expected to linger across a few portions of the area, to
potentially as late as noon on Friday. The overall best potential
for precipitation (50-80% chances) will be concentrated west and
southwest of the Tri-Cities with 20-50% chances reserved for the
remainder of the area (greatest chances towards the southwest). Most
locations should only expect to see 0.1-0.5" of precipitation with a
few more localized amounts up to 1" possible.


The Main Story Next Week: Warming Temperatures & Drier Conditions

Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, temperatures have
been knocked down by around 5-10 degrees for today. The "coolest"
day within the next week should fall Friday as highs are forecast to
spread the low to mid 80s. After Friday, highs will likely take a
multi-day climb with an at least 5+ day streak of 90+ degree heat on
the way for next week. This streak of increasingly warmer
temperatures will become the main story for next week.

This warm up will be primarily driven by a building ridge across
much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions,
additionally helping to snuff out most precipitation chances in the
process. The Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) now has a relatively
strong agreement in retaining these warm and dry conditions for much
of if not all of next week. The latest GFS/ECMWF models show an
upper-level rex block (high pressure center north of lower pressure
center) forming overtop of the Central Plains during the middle of
next week. If this pattern achieves, persisting heat (mainly highs
in the 90s) will be favored to stick around the area. There is still
some uncertainty to how extreme this heat may become. The Weather
Prediction Center, however, is beginning to highlight the potential
for extreme heat next weekend (mainly on the 17th and 18th) on their
extended hazard outlook.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though a few low-level cumulus cloud around 2,500ft have
managed to bubble in this afternoon, mainly around KEAR, bases
are not expected to become broken. VFR conditions outside of
any thunderstorms influence, should remain VFR through the
period.

A few storms running in from off the High Plains region tonight
(after 4z) will near KEAR around 5z. It is uncertain how long
these storms will last before dissipating so the mention of
thunder remain out of KGRI for now. Either way, these likely
non-severe storms will be expected to be in the stages of
dissipating across the 3z-9z timeframe. A few scattered showers
may linger around through the early morning hours with a low-
end chance for a few weak thunderstorms to develop between
12-18z (15-30% chance).

Winds will remain light and later variable for much of the 18z
TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion