Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

623
FXUS63 KOAX 081007
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
507 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and
  storm chances from Wednesday into early next week. Strong to
  severe storms will be possible at times (5-15% chance on a
  given day).

- Temperatures will alternate between seasonal norms (highs in
  the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday) and well-above normal
  (highs 70s for the weekend.)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Evening analysis showed a surface warm front advancing
northward, stretching from roughly Columbus to Omaha to Clarinda
as of 10 PM. North of the front, temperatures were in the upper
30s to around 40 and south of the front, temperatures were in
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warm air advection will continue
overnight as a low level jet ramps up ahead of an approaching
low currently over the WY/SD border. As a result, temperatures
will generally hold steady or climb into Wednesday morning. In
addition, we`ll see surface winds strengthen as we go through
the night, with model soundings suggesting we mix into some of
that low level jet by 9-10 AM and some 35-45 mph gusts reach the
surface. The low (along with a stronger cutoff low over the
Canadian border) will help drag a cold front through the area
during the day and given the warm air and moisture advection
ahead of the front, said frontal passage could trigger a few
showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests
any development will likely hold off until the front has pushed
southeast of Omaha and Lincoln. Instability will be pretty
limited, though there could be just enough for a few stronger
storms capable of hail, and with an inverted V sounding, can`t
rule out some gusty winds with a collapsing storm.

The front is favored to stall in or just immediately southeast
of the area overnight. Moisture transport will ramp up again and
could lead to additional showers and storms over southeast NE
and southwest IA into Thursday morning (15-30% chance). Some
shortwave energy will then slide through during the day,
providing additional forcing for ascent and leading to more
widespread showers and storms along the front as it inches back
northward. A few pieces of guidance hint at just enough
instability and shear to yield a strong to severe storm threat
in far southeast NE and far southwest IA Thursday afternoon
evening, though we`ll have to see how morning convection pans
out and how things trend.

The front will stay in the vicinity into Saturday before
shooting back north through the area. As additional shortwaves
slide through and moisture transport points into the area, we`ll
see daily shower and storm chances. Still lots of details to be
worked out, but there will be severe weather chances at times,
with guidance suggesting some decent instability moving in along
with NAEFS mean precipitable water values of 1.25" or more,
good for the 99th+ percentile of climatology for this time of
year. So potential is there for some heavier rain as well, but
we`ll have to see how things pan out regarding timing/forcing.
The shower and storm chances will continue into next week as a
larger scale trough sets up over the western CONUS, with various
bits of shortwave energy ejecting out of it and through our
area before the trough itself deamplifies a bit and moves
through toward the middle part of next week. As it stands, we`re
seeing at least a 30-40% chance of showers and storms every day
through Tuesday, and 60-80+% chances at times Thursday and
during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period. LLWS
(southerly to southwesterly at 50-55 kts around 2000 ft agl) will
continue effect all TAF sites until 14-16Z this morning. Surface
winds will continue to veer to the southwest through mid morning,
with gusts up to 20-35 kts possible. Winds will become northwesterly
by late morning/early afternoon, and continue to gradually weaken
through the evening. The northerly wind shift is expected to reach
KOFK by 16Z, and make it`s way to KLNK and KOMA closer to 20Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

626
FXUS63 KGID 081144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move through the area during the day today,
  resulting in a wide range in highs from north to south. This
  front may serve as the focus for a few strong to marginally
  severe thunderstorms between 5-9PM in the extreme SE CWA.

- Off and on showers and thunderstorms will redevelop near and
  north of the stalled front on Thursday, and continue into
  Thursday night.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms during the
  afternoon and evening, mainly S/SE of the Tri- Cities. This is
  also where the highest chances (50-80%) for widespread
  appreciable moisture (>0.50") will focus.

- An active upper level pattern will remain in place Friday into
  early next week and bring periodic rain chances, though some
  of the latest trends are not quite as hopeful for significant
  moisture as a few days ago.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Main story for today will be a cold frontal passage from NW to
SE throughout the daytime hours. This front is currently
analyzed from the Panhandle northeastward into SD and generally
remains on track to expectations from 24 hours ago. Timing of
the front through the Tri-Cites looks to be right around midday.
Winds will turn the the NW/N behind the front and usher in some
cooler air, though still not bad for this time of year, with
some of the "coolness" offset by plentiful sunshine. Highs
should top out for areas around the Tri Cities and to the N and
W in the 60s. Further SE, highs will be warmer in the 70s to
even near 80F towards I-70, aided by a very warm start to the
morning amidst strong southerly winds.

Front should clear all but extreme SE portions of the forecast
area by early this evening. Front may remain over or just close
enough to areas like Osborne and Beloit up towards Concordia and
Hebron to keep at least a low chance going for a couple/few
storms in the 5-9PM time frame. SPC has maintained a Marginal
Risk of severe for this potential. Strong winds (owing to steep
low level lapse rates and deeply mixed boundary layer
(inverted-V profiles) and perhaps some low-end large hail
(aided by strong upper level winds lengthening deep layer
hodographs) will be the main threats. Overall moisture looks to
be a significant limiting factor (afternoon dew points only in
the 40s) to a more robust severe threat. It`s also possible
storms could develop in the counties just outside our CWA.

Low end shower/storm chances (20-40%) continue overnight into
Thursday AM for the possibility of isolated activity developing
on nose of veering low level jet and within strong warm air
advection. This area of lift will also coincide with a stalled
out baroclinic zone from the aforementioned cold front.
However, once again, appears deep layer moisture will be a
limiting factor to coverage and overall organization - thus the
limited PoPs.

Despite the continuous PoPs for the second half of the week,
don`t want to give the impression it`s a "washout" by any means.
Think we`ll see a decent dry break late Thu AM into early aftn,
and again for a good chunk of the daytime hours Friday. Expect
the most widespread shower/storm activity to come Thu aftn into
overnight along the still stalled out baroclinic zone as some
deeper moisture finally arrives from the S. SPC has maintained
another Marginal Risk for severe weather for this round, as
well, with the main focus being along and S of the state line.
This is also where the best chances (50-80%) for the most
appreciable moisture (0.5" or more of rain) will be Thu night
into Fri AM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently...

It was a dreary start to the day across the forecast area, with
widespread low level stratus. This cloud cover has diminished
from south to north through the day, with only far northern
areas still sitting under mostly cloudy skies. Looking
aloft...upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow
across the local area, sitting between one shortwave in the
NM/TX area and another moving into the Nrn Rockies. At the
surface...the day started out with easterly winds across the
area, which have turned more south- southeasterly through the
day...thanks to high pressure shifting further east over the
Great Lakes, while a trough axis remains over the High Plains.
The plentiful cloud cover and gradual northward diminishing
trend made for a difficult temperature forecast...but overall
looks like highs will work out fairly well, with 40s in the far
north to low 70s in the south.

Wednesday...

Main feature of interest in the very short-term period will be
that above mentioned disturbance working its way into the Nrn
Rockies. Models are in good agreement showing this system
sliding generally east along the US/Canada border tonight on
through Wednesday, with the center of the low roughly over the
western MN/Canada border by evening. The main impact with this
system will be with the accompanying surface frontal
boundary...which will be pushed south through the area during
the daytime hours. Really hasn`t been any notable change in the
models as far as timing goes...showing the front roughly in the
Tri-Cities area around 18Z, the either right along the SE corner
of the forecast area or just outside by late afternoon-evening.
The daytime passage makes for a tricky temperature
forecast...the gradient from NW-SE could end up tighter than the
low 60s-mid 70s currently forecast. This front is expected to
be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm
development...so its late-day location is another forecast
concern. Even if the timing ends up on the slower side, it looks
to be the far SE corner with chances for thunderstorms...a
quicker passage means we could get missed altogether. It looks
like it`ll be a close call. Thunderstorms that develop would
have the potential to be on the strong-severe side...SPC Day 2
Marginal Risk area continues to include most of our north
central KS area. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary
threat. Through the overnight hours, that front looks to stall
out as it loses its upper level push...but it`s not out of the
question we could have linger elevated precipitation north of
the front with models showing an increased low-level jet. Best
chances would remain near/south of the NE/KS state line.

Rest of this week into early next week...

Overall not any significant changes made to the forecast, with
models continuing to show the potential for a more active
pattern through the mid-longer term periods. Models showing
periodic shortwave disturbance moving through the Plains...both
in the more zonal flow to end the work week, and the
southwesterly flow expected to develop this weekend-early next
week as a larger trough axis move onto and in from the West
Coast. Right now the highest chances are in the Thu-Sun time
frame...but hard to have a ton of confidence in timing/location
of these disturbance and chances the further out in time you go.


On Thursday, models show the stalled surface boundary pushing
back north...with some uncertainty just how far north it gets
before the next upper level disturbance/sfc cold front moves in
from the NW. This boundary will again be the focus for
thunderstorm development late in the day, and on into the
evening/overnight hours thanks a stronger LLJ. Overall best
chances for storms and any strong-severe storms looks to be
across southern areas...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area
continues to clip SSErn areas. Hail/wind would again be the
primary threats.

As far as temperatures go...Thursday is another lower-confidence
forecast...with some models showing iso-sct precip around
through much of the day...forecast has right around 60 in the
far NE to mid 70s in the SSW. Friday is currently the overall
coolest day with highs in the 50s-low 60s...with 70s returning
for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: VFR. UEX VAD continues to sample a 55-60kt SWrly low
level jet (LLJ) in place over the terminals, which is leading to
stout low level wind shear (LLWS) - despite relatively breezy
conditions at the surface. The LLJ will mix out around 13-14Z,
which will likely lead to at least a couple hour surge in SSW
sfc wind gusts, particularly for GRI. A cold front will move
through the terminals between 15-17Z, causing winds to veer to
SW (and briefly weaken immediately along the front) then
increase out of the NW/N. Wind speeds/gusts will gradually ease
during the late afternoon and early evening.

Tonight: Continued VFR conditions with decreasing winds through
the evening, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion