Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

753
FXUS63 KOAX 162311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, with morning southerly
  winds shifting to northwesterly as a cold front pushes through
  midday. Winds gusts may reach 40-50 mph, wind a wind advisory
  in place for portions of the area.

- Very high fire danger will exist across northeast Nebraska on
  Wednesday as warm, dry and windy conditions prevail.

- Widespread precipitation chances return on Saturday, with a
  few strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show a mid-
to upper-level shortwave trough digging across the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest, placing the region under
northwesterly flow aloft. Surface high pressure has built in a
behind a departing cold front, bringing calm and pleasant
conditions today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Light
winds will gradually back to southerly this evening.

Winds will increase overnight as a deepening surface low and
associated frontal system moves across the area. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight
across northeast Nebraska into western Iowa along as associated warm
front, with PoPs around 15-30%. Instability and moisture remain
fairly limited, which should keep severe weather potential low.

Southerly winds will increase to around 35-40 mph ahead of the cold
front`s arrival overnight into Wednesday morning. Enhanced southerly
gusts of 40-50 mph are expected later in the morning generally south
of I-80 as the boundary layer decouples and mixes into a strong (50-
60 kt) LLJ. A Wind Advisory is in place for this area from 7 AM
through 11 AM. A brief dampening in winds is expected as the low
passes overhead before the cold front pushes southward across the
area during the late morning and afternoon hours, bringing a quick
shift to northwesterly winds with increasing gusts behind the
boundary. Northwesterly wind gusts of 40-50 mph will continue
through the afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected across
northeast Nebraska. An additional Wind Advisory remains in place for
northeast Nebraska and western Iowa from noon through 9 PM
Wednesday.

Warm, dry and windy conditions on Wednesday will bring very
high fire weather concerns, especially across northeast Nebraska
where fuels remain dry. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
values are expected to fall into the 20-25% range. A Red Flag
Warning was considered for northeast Nebraska, but was
ultimately leaned against after collaborating with fuel
partners in the area. High temperatures are expected to reach
the mid 80s to low 90s, the warmest day of the week for most
locations. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday evening into
the overnight hours.

Thursday and Beyond...

Strong northwesterly winds aloft will usher in a brief period of
CAA, dropping highs back into the mid 70s to low 80s on Thursday. A
few spotty showers will be possible Thursday morning along a stalled
surface convergent boundary. However, a fairly dry sub-cloud layer
should limit most precipitation from making it to the surface (PoPs
peaking at 15%). Surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging
will then support calm conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s
on Friday.

A more active weather pattens looks to develop in the extended
range. A shortwave disturbance and associated low are forecast to
move through the mid-MO valley on Saturday, bringing the next chance
for severe weather. SPC has placed much of eastern Nebraska in a 15%
severe weather probability, supported by GEFS and EPS based machine
learning guidance also displaying a 10-15% probability of severe
weather over much of the area. This will be a period to monitor as
details continue to come into better focus. Highs are expected to
reach the 80s, with PoPs peaking around 70-90% Saturday night
into early Sunday.

Sunday into early next week, highs generally persist in the upper
70s and 80s, along with periodic 20-30% PoPs. The upper-level
pattern looks to stay somewhat active into next week with weak
disturbances tracking by daily.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
shift to the south this evening before increasing in speed after
sunset as a low-level jet develops. Surface wind gusts of 25-30
kts are possible across the area overnight. In addition, LLWS
is anticipated with strong south winds above 50 kts at 1500 and
2000 ft. A cold front approaches the area just before sunrise.
Winds will weaken and shift towards the west briefly ahead of
the front. The strong cold front quickly pushes through the
region from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning. Current
timing has strong northwest winds with the front arriving at OFK
at 13Z, LNK at 15Z, and OMA at 16Z. Wind speeds will continue
to increase heading into Wednesday afternoon due to increasing
mixing heights.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ068-
     089>093.
IA...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

049
FXUS63 KGID 162024
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The two "biggest stories" of the next week are: 1) near-
  critical fire weather conditions and fairly strong winds on
  Wednesday by June standards (see separate Fire Weather
  section below for details)...2) A gradually-increasing concern
  for potential severe thunderstorms (and maybe localized
  flooding) especially Saturday afternoon-overnight.

- Aside from the above concerns, the MAJORITY of the next week
  appears fairly quiet/uneventful, with the various/intermittent
  rain and thunderstorm chances especially Sunday night-Tuesday
  being of lower confidence than the Friday night-Sunday
  chances.

- Temperature-wise: certainly nothing too noteworthy by mid-late
  June standards, with highs on most days in the 70s/80s and
  lows on most nights in the 50s/60s. The main round of hotter
  90s will be right away Wednesday, with counties mainly
  along/south of the NE-KS border forecast to reach low-mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly major changes to speak of, as the items listed in Key
  Messages above continue to ring true.

- Officially, our forecast remains completely void of any
  mentionable rain chances (meaning chances/PoPs less than 15%)
  through Friday afternoon. That being said, we cannot rule out
  later forecast possibly introducing some chances for a few
  light showers/sprinkles especially late Wed night-Thurs AM.

- In the very minor forecast change department, high temps for
  Saturday- Monday have nudged down a few degrees from previous.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. June 23):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 230 PM:
By most folks` standards, today has simply been a seasonably-
pleasant mid-June day. Under generally partly cloudy skies (a
fair amount of passing high level cirrus), high temps are on
track to top out between 82-90 degrees in most places...overall-
coolest in our eastern NE counties and overall-warmest in our
extreme southwestern counties (Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) which are
most favored to reach/slightly exceed 90. Humidity levels are
also fairly low, owing to dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Winds
have thus far today been a minimal concern, with sustained
speeds in most places near-to- below 10 MPH. However, speeds
through the rest of the afternoon will gradually pick up a bit
and become more established from the south, with especially our
northern/western counties seeing gusts 20+ MPH by evening.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central
Plains region resides under northwesterly flow, directed between
a potent shortwave trough rotating through the Great
Lakes/eastern Midwest...and an expansive ridge/high centered
well off the southern CA coast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
A dry forecast continues, with any stronger/severe storms
focusing off to our south (southern KS) and/or east (mainly
northern/eastern IA). A few sprinkles/light showers could TRY
clipping the extreme northern/northeast fringes of our CWA late
tonight along the far southern edges of lift associated with a
shortwave trough diving out of the Dakotas toward IA, but this
meager precip should stay slightly to our north/northeast. The
main story overnight will be increasing southerly and eventually
southwesterly winds...in response to a surface low pressure
system deepening to around 990 millibars as it tracks from the
WY/NE border area early this evening...to east-central/southeast
NE by sunrise. In response, our winds tonight will ramp up to
sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. The
increasing winds and low-level warm air advection makes low
temps a little tricky, as many places will probably bottom out
pre-midnight before steadying or even rising a few degrees later
in the night. No matter what, the majority of our CWA will see
lows hold up 10+ degrees warmer than last night...with lows
aimed from mid-upper 60s in most places...to low 70s in our
south (especially KS).


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Although not as hot as it once looked, this will still be the
warmest day of the next week, and quite likely also the windiest.
Aloft, the aforementioned upper wave will track east- southeast
into the Midwest (likely prompting widespread severe storms
especially over IL/IN), while back here out west behind that
system we`ll remain dry under mostly sunny skies. High temps
were changed very little...ranging from mid-upper 80s in most of
our Nebraska counties...to low-mid 90s counties mainly
along/south of the KS border. As surface low pressure departs
east, a seasonably-strong cold front (especially in terms of
winds...less so temps) will cross our CWA during the morning,
with most of the day featuring sustained northwesterly speeds
20-30 MPH/gusts 30-45 MPH. The overall-strongest speeds (gusts
40-45 MPH) will target counties mainly north of I-80, with the
overall "lightest" winds in our KS counties (see separate Fire
Weather Section below for more on near-critical fire weather
concerns).

Wednesday evening-overnight, winds will steadily decrease in the
evening with sustained speeds at/under 10 MPH by around 11
PM, but remaining northerly through the night. We continue with
a dry forecast, but various models are increasingly suggestive
that we might need to consider adding some low chances for light
showers and/or sprinkles post-midnight to especially our
northern counties due to some lift from upper jet dynamics and
mid-level frontogenesis. Temp-wise, lows about 10 degrees cooler
than tonight...ranging from mid 50s north to low 60s south.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Our dry forecast continues for now, but the same possible chance
for light showers/sprinkles mentioned for late Wed night could
linger through much of Thursday AM especially in our eastern
counties. Even so, the vast majority of these 36 hours will
surely be dry as we remain under benign northwesterly flow
aloft. Breezes Thursday will remain out of the north-northwest
but not nearly as strong as Wednesday. High temps will be
roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday (mainly upper 70s-low
80s). On Friday, winds flip back around to southerly and become
a bit breezy...aiding another jump in high temps (at least 5-8
degrees warmer than Wed) with highs mainly mid-upper 80s.


- FRIDAY EVENING-SUNDAY (the weekend):
Not going to attempt to break down this time frame in super-
great detail, but as previously covered there is gradually
increasing concern for a severe thunderstorm/localized flooding
threat especially for Saturday afternoon-night. SPC introduced
a Day 5 "Slight Risk equivalent" to our entire CWA on this
morning`s outlook...which is also supported by CSU machine-
learning probs.

Any convection Friday night-Sat AM could perhaps
be strong to marginally- severe as low-level moisture and
instability starts to return northward, but it will probably be
fairly scattered in coverage. However, more widespread
convection is probable Saturday afternoon-overnight as a low-
amplitude upper wave enters the Plains from the west,
accompanied by an eastward-tracking surface low and likely a
strong southerly low-level jet. This is still beyond the scope
of any higher-res models to be sure, but latest ECMWF/GFS
clearly support a decent combo of at least 1500-2500 J/kg of
CAPE (instability) and at least 30-40KT of deep layer wind shear
(supportive of supercells at least initially). Dewpoints well
into the 60s convey heavy rain/flooding potential as well.
Whatever happens Saturday night (in terms of how widespread
storms are) will probably have at least some bearing on Sunday,
as although the ECMWF (more so than the GFS) keeps some healthy
instability around, both models usher a weak cold front through
our CWA...which should in theory shunt any higher- end severe
storm chances to our south. Again though, it`s just too early
for many details at this still Day 4-5 range...and there is
still time for severe storm concerns to ramp up more OR perhaps
decrease a bit.

Temperature-wise, highs trended down very slightly from
previous, but are aimed mostly mid-upper 80s Saturday...upper
70s-mid 80s Sunday.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
We remain under west-northwesterly flow aloft, with passing weak
disturbances bringing continued intermittent/mainly isolated-
to-scattered rain and thunderstorm chances. However, instability
currently appears markedly lower than the weekend and thus more
muted severe potential. High temps currently aimed mainly upper
70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and rain-free
conditions throughout the period, with only limited amounts of
passing mid-high level cloud cover. That leaves winds as by far
the main concern, including somewhat-strong surface winds
(including a cold frontal passage with directional change) and
also a fairly strong round of overnight-early morning low level
wind shear (LLWS).

- Surface winds:
By far the lightest winds of the period will be right away this
afternoon (becoming southerly up to around 10KT). This evening-
overnight, speeds will ramp up and turn more southwesterly with
time (sustained commonly 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT). Then, right
around 13Z a cold front arrives, turning winds northwesterly
through the rest of the period with gusts increasing to around
30KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Have maintained LLWS from previous TAFs, and even added a second
group to provide more detail on direction/intensity. The initial
LLWS group runs 03-09Z and highlights mainly southerly speeds
accelerating to around 50KT within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL. The
second LLWS group then runs 09-13Z as low level winds turn more
southwesterly and increase a bit more to around 55KT. The net
result is several hours of moderately-strong LLWS, with shear
magnitude between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer
reaching 30-40KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Regarding WEDNESDAY near-critical fire weather conditions:
First of all and most importantly, we have deemed
grasses/vegetation across our entire CWA to be "green enough"
(in some far western areas JUST green enough) to NOT SUPPORT
truly widespread wildfire growth/spread. As a result, we have
NO Fire Weather Watches/Warnings posted for Wednesday.

That being said, the meteorological combination of moderately-
strong northwest winds and seasonably-low relative humidity (RH)
does make the Wednesday wildfire threat higher-than-average by
mid-June standards, and we are officially calling it near-
critical for our area. More specifically, nearly our entire CWA
will see the combination of the following for several hours from
mid-late morning through early evening:
- 1) Northwest winds gusting at least 30-45 MPH (overall-
  strongest counties north of I-80)
- 2) Relative humidity as low as 15-25% (overall-lowest in our
  KS counties along with far western Nebraska counties such as
  Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion