Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

375
FXUS63 KOAX 042333
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances shift to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
  Tuesday evening into Wednesday (60-90% chance).

- Milder temperatures through Thursday, warming back up going
  into the weekend. Dry, seasonably warm weather expected over
  the weekend.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north. A small
  amount may be found at the surface. Most will be elevated and
  may produce some hazy skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Surface analysis shows the cooler Canadian air has pushed
through all but the last southeastern counties of the CWA.
Behind the front, temps are mostly in the 60s and 70s with brisk
northerly winds. Ahead of it, Falls City, Nebraska City, and
southwest Iowa have managed 80 before the cooler air has arrived.
KOAX has been interpreting returns from rain since before
sunrise. Radar estimates suggest some locations between Norfolk
and Sioux City (including Wayne) have received 1.5". Ground
truth shows gauges mostly reporting closer to half of that.

These showers and associated lightning/thunder are slowly
sliding east/southeast and are expected to dissipate and push
out of the southeastern corner CWA by about 7pm tonight as the
shortwave responsible for their forcing continues east.

The dry spell won`t last long as another vort max - currently
over the high country of Colorado - pushes through overnight.
That combined with the extra lift provided by the summer
nocturnal jet, and likely PoPs (80-90%) are expected in the
areas within 50 miles of I-80. With PWAT values near the 90th
percentile for August, some localized heavy rain is possible in
the urban areas of Omaha and Lincoln. CAM QPF suggests rainfall
of 3.5" is possible at Omaha, which would overwhelm the city`s
drainage system. Considered a flood watch, but will hold off for
now due to low confidence as to where the QPF bullseye is most
likely to set up, but western Iowa/Omaha metro has best odds.

The SPC added an area of "marginal threat" for severe weather
this evening. Most of the lift is displaced north of the front,
but just ahead of it, there is 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 40-50 knots
of bulk shear. Should a storm tap into that instability, it
could produce some borderline severe weather.

Overnight`s instability will be elevated... leaving lots of
thunder and lightning, but little severe threat.

.WEDNESDAY...

Rainfall will continue over the southern half of the area
through Wednesday`s first half before continuing southeast.

Skies will be clearing from north to south, but they`ll remain
marred by the wildfire smoke drifting in from Canada. Expect a
20-30% reduction in sunlight. There may be some smoke found at
the surface, too, but models seem to be overdoing it so far
based on observations from up north and I have opted not to
include it in the forecast for now.

Temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday behind the front with
highs relegated mostly to the 70s as high pressure works in from
the north.

.THURSDAY AND BEYOND...

Southerly return flow develops as the sfc high slides east.
Those winds help push temps past the 80F mark. More showers and
storms are possible late on Thursday night as another shortwave
sweeps through Kansas.

Temps will continue to warm into the weekend, but as the H5
pattern becomes quasi-zonal, temps should moderate to near
seasonal averages or a few degrees warmer into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

KOMA/KLNK:
More storms expected to develop starting around 01Z likely
initially north of KOMA. By around 05Z storms should spread
south into KOMA and KLNK bringing cigs back down to 700-1000ft
and reducing vis to 3sm, less at times under heavier rain. Most
confident in a period of storms from 05-08Z, with storms
becoming more scattered with less chance of lightning after 08Z.
Cigs will remain most likely IFR through the period of heavier
rain through around 15Z with cigs improving through the rest of
the morning into the afternoon. Winds will be out of the north
overnight shifting east-northeasterly starting around 15Z.

KOFK:
KOFK will stay to the north of showers and storms, remaining VFR
through the TAF period. Winds out of the north overnight will be
shifting to east-northeasterly by around 14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

285
FXUS63 KGID 050020
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
720 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to push
  east across the area this afternoon. Severe weather is not
  anticipated with this activity.

- After a relative lull this evening...another round of
  showers/storms starts working its way in from the west, mainly
  after midnight, but especially closer to dawn. These chances
  will continue on through midday/early afternoon...with the
  best chances roughly in the I-80 to state line corridor.
  Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.

- Forecast for Wed night on through the weekend is overall
  drier. After another cool day Wed with highs in the
  70s...temps are back in the 80s for Thursday, then 90s to near
  100 for the weekend. For Sat-Mon, heat index values around
  100-105 are possible, especially across the southern half of
  the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Currently through this evening...

A swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make
their way east across the forecast area today...a trend that
will continue on through the rest of this afternoon. Looking
aloft...upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal
flow in place across the region. Across the CONUS, upper level
low pressure is spinning in the GA/SC area, while the main area
of high pressure centered over the Desert SW is being dampened
by low pressure/broad troughing over much of central/western
Canada into the northern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows
shortwave disturbances embedded in the main overall flow...one
of which is helping drive the ongoing activity across the
forecast area. At the surface, the forecast sits just north of
the main cold front...which has stalled some, currently sitting
from SW/south central KS up into ESErn IA. Behind this frontal
boundary, winds have been gusty (esp. by August standards) out
of the NNE...gusts have mainly been around 25-30 MPH. Between
the plentiful cloud cover, scattered precipitation and sitting
on the north side of the frontal boundary...not surprising that
in spots temperatures have been struggling so far today. By the
time it`s all said and done...forecast highs across southern
areas will turn out alright...but some spots across south
central NE may not end up even hitting 70 degrees. Still some
time to recover behind this activity anywhere there are breaks
in the cloud cover.

For the rest of today...main concern lies with the ongoing
activity. There have been spots at times that have perked up
in strength...but the overall environment is not supportive of a
notable severe weather threat. Not out of the question that
some storms could be strong...with gusty winds/small hail the
main threats. Instability is sitting around 500-1000 j/kg across
central/NErn areas, closer to 1500 j/kg in the SE...but both
low and mid level lapse rates are pretty low. Timing of the main
swath has it clearing the forecast area early this
evening...and while there could be some isolated lingering
activity, models showing a relative lull...with better lift
along an increasing LLJ looking to focus just off to our east.

Later tonight through Wednesday...

Mainly after midnight tonight, models showing another embedded
weaker shortwave disturbance making its way out of the Rockies
and onto the Plains...ushering the next chance for
showers/thunderstorms. Higher-res models aren`t in too bad of
agreement showing that as far as timing goes...the better
chances hold off until closer to/after 09Z. Little more
uncertainty with the overall coverage initially, so PoPs remain
broad with chances in place CWA-wide. The overall best chances
run roughly from around sunrise through the early afternoon
hours...dropping off from west to east, possibly dry area-wide
by mid-afternoon. The highest chances remain focused through the
heart of the forecast area, roughly from I-80 to near the state
line...though at least 20-30 percent chances are outside that
corridor to cover the rest of the area. Not anticipating this
activity to be severe...with the SPC Day 2 outlook remaining
well outside our boundaries.

At the surface, winds won`t be as gusty as they have been
today...as high pressure slides through the area. Winds turn
more easterly with time, speeds topping out around 10 MPH. The
daytime precipitation chances and lingering cloud cover make for
a tricky temperature forecast...as there will be some
opportunity to recover if precip does in fact clear out by mid-
afternoon and we can get breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast
highs through the central portions of the area are in the lower
70s, with mid-70s to the north and south.

Thursday and on...

Looking toward the end of this week on into the start of next
week...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the
forecast. Big picture-wise...models continue to show the upper
level pattern through this timeframe flexing to varying
degrees of west-northwest flow. The main area of upper level
high pressure remains centered generally over the Desert SW...at
times able to amplify a bit more early-on thanks to deeper
troughing over portions of the eastern CONUS...but then is
dampened by additional activity moving onto western Canada/far
NNWrn CONUS. Spotty, generally low-end preciptiation chances
remain in the forecast...as there is still the potential for
periodic shortwave disturbances to push through the region...but
confidence in the timing and tracking of any of these
disturbances is pretty low at this point.

Forecast continues to show a warming trend from the 70s of
Wednesday...with low-mid 80s on Thursday increasing into the 90s-
near 100 for this weekend/Monday. Heat index values around 100-105
are not out of the question Sat-Mon, especially for the southern
half of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
By far the main challenges are determining: 1) how much of the
period features MVFR vs. VFR ceiling...2) The likelihood/areal
coverage of showers/non-severe thunderstorms overnight into
Wednesday morning. Other than an outside chance of briefly-
reduced visibility in any heavier downpours, VFR visibility
should persist. As for winds, assuming no "surprise" enhancement
from convective outflow, they will be a very minimal issue, with
sustained speeds at-or-below 10KT throughout, as direction
prevails northeasterly to east-northeastly for the most part.

- Ceiling trends/uncertainties:
Admittedly, 00Z TAFs have been geared a bit more toward the more
pessimistic side...maintaining more MVFR vs. VFR through much
of the period. That being said, while things are indeed starting
off MVFR out of the gate this evening, obs from sites slightly
"upstream" suggest that within a few hours ceilings could rise
to low-end VFR levels (3-4K ft. AGL)...and perhaps remain there
much of the night. Should this occur, look for amendments.
Assuming that MVFR does prevail (or eventually return at some
point Wednesday morning) as currently anticipated, it will
likely lift and/or scatter out back to VFR at some point
Wednesday afternoon. While some of the more optimistic model
data has this occurring by as early as 16-18Z...have hung onto
MVFR a bit longer in TAFs (until 20Z).

- Shower/thunderstorm potential:
While at least spotty/isolated showers and weak thunderstorms
could potentially develop already within these next few hours,
this potential and coverage is expected to be spotty enough that
even a PROB30 group seems unwarranted. As a result, have held
off on a formal PROB30 until the 10-16Z time frame...as by then
somewhat more widespread convection should develop in the area.
Considered possibly introducing TEMPO for this, but with some
of the latest higher-res models keeping the bulk of this
activity JUST south of KEAR/KGRI...went with PROB30 for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion