Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

027
FXUS63 KOAX 162237
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
537 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm chances expected for the afternoon
  (30%) and evening hours, with more storms possible in the late
  evening and overnight (70-90%).

- Continued threat for severe storms Sunday and Monday with all
  hazards possible.

- Temperatures cool down for Tuesday through Thursday in the 50s
  and 60s, warming back up toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Satellite gives a good idea of where the upper-level warm front
is located this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies along and
north of the boundary from Lincoln to Plattsmouth. Skies to the
south are mostly clear. We have the surface front to the south,
closer to the Kansas-Nebraska state line. We`re going to be
watching this surface front push north into southeast Nebraska
over the next few hours, with an isolated storm or two possibly
developing later this afternoon. The upper-level shortwave
pushes into north-central Kansas around 7pm this evening,
kicking off storms in northeastern Kansas. A line of these
storms will move north into southeast Nebraska around 8-9pm
getting into Lincoln/Omaha around 10-11pm. This line of storms
will lift into northeast Nebraska after midnight. The second
round of storms develop near the Nebraska Panhandle this evening
and develop into a bowing line that will push into our area
around 1-2AM. Significant wind threat with this line of storms,
with potential for 70+ mph winds.

Sunday will start off with lingering cooler and cloudy
conditions from the overnight storms. It`s going to take some
time for our environment to recover, with clouds maybe not
burning off until early afternoon. The developing surface low
has trended farther north, deepening which will strengthen the
surface pressure gradient across our area. Because of this
we`ll see stronger winds develop out of the south, with gusts 35
to 45 mph expected starting mid-morning through the afternoon.
The first storms will develop either over northeast Nebraska or
southeast South Dakota around 6pm. CAPE values of around 3500
J/kg pooling along the warm front as well as 0-6km bulk shear
values of 35-40 kt should support discrete supercells
initially. Later in the evening closer to 9pm the low-level jet
intensifies, bringing stronger winds at 850mb into southeast
Nebraska. This should light up storms all along the cold front
from around Red Cloud northeast through Columbus and Thurston.
500-mb winds show steering flow pushing these storms east off
the frontal boundary. the best low-level shear will be over
northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and northwest
Iowa Sunday evening, lending to the greatest potential for
embedded supercells and strong tornadoes in this area. However,
there will still be enough shear for a few supercells farther
south along the line of storms after 9pm for a tornado or two to
develop as far south as I-80. This line of strong to severe
storms clears east of our area by around 3-4am.

While the storms moved off to the east, the front does not
follow, staying put across our area into Monday acting as a
focus for more strong-to-severe storms on Monday. There are
differences in the CAMs on where exactly the front will be
Monday morning, with the HRRR keeping it just north of the
Omaha-Lincoln metros. Other hi-res models have it farther south,
closer to Nebraska City. It`s location will greatly influence
the areas with severe weather potential on Monday. Storms are
expected to develop initially over north-central Kansas
potentially during the early afternoon, moving into southeast
Nebraska mid-afternoon into the early evening. All modes of
severe weather will again be possible, with tornadoes, large
hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. These storms should
clear out of our area by 10-11pm.

Tuesday and beyond we finally get a break! The front shifts
south pushing the severe threat south and east of our area and
bringing in a cooler Canadian air mass for mid-week next week.
Tuesday will be much cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s
across our area, with highs moderating back up to solidly in the
mid 60s on Wednesday. Our next chances for rain hold off until
later next week with temperatures warming back up toward next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Storms have developed in southwest Iowa and central Nebraska.
Watching for this line to potentially fill in impacting KLNK,
but confidence in timing is low (30%). Better chance for storms
to impact KLNK and KOMA later this evening starting with a surge
of development northward into these two terminals around
03-04Z. This line of storms will hang over the the terminals
until a north-south line of storms moves in from the west around
06-07Z. KOFK remains north of the warm front and may not see any
storms until the north-south line arrives closer to 07Z (only a
60% chance storms impact KOFK). Once the storms clear east, MVFR
cigs appear likely to develop over northeast Nebraska impacting
KOFK primarily. A 40% chance low stratus makes it as far south
as KOMA. Clouds will be slow to clear Sunday, clearing around
17-18Z. Additional storms likely starting Sunday afternoon, but
may only see an isolated storm or two until chances increase
around 00Z.

Winds will remain out of the east this evening, shifting to the
southeast Sunday morning, then more southerly toward the
afternoon. Expect strong winds on Sunday (not generated by
storms) with gusts 25-35kt. A few gusts 40kt+ possible.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

764
FXUS63 KGID 162343
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk of severe weather (level 3 of 5) during the
  evening and overnight hours today and again Sunday. Organized
  damaging wind, very large hail, and tornadoes are possible.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are becoming an increasing
  concern for Sunday afternoon along and behind a surging dry
  line. Areas along and south of the state line have been placed
  under a Fire Weather Watch.

- Monday`s severe weather potential is highly uncertain for our
  local area, as latest trends are shifting the main threat
  corridor along and ahead of a front a bit further E.

- Relatively quiet remainder of the forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1 AM. Several
supercells have developed along the warm front along and north
of I-80. Other than the increased coverage of supercells early
this evening, the convective forecast is unfolding as expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Short discussion here as we transition to severe weather ops.

Two main convective regimes for the short term:
1) isolated supercells along a retreating warm front over mainly
south central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. All
modes of severe will be possible given potent combination of
instability and shear. Already seeing signs of this along I-80
corridor.

2) larger complex of storms is forecast to move in from the W
later this evening. This activity would have an organized with
threat with it, as well as potential for QLCS tornadoes. This is
concerning considering the late time of day and difficult to
spot them. Could also see some large hail, but would be a
secondary threat. Can`t rule out a few swaths of wind driven
hail. Isolated gusts up to 80 MPH will be possible in the
strongest cores. This batch favors south central Nebraska more
than Kansas, but KS zones by no means in the clear.

Severe threat should end by around 09Z.

Focus then turns to Sunday`s severe weather and fire weather
potential. Will all depend on where the dry line sets up, but
trends have been to shift this further E and bring more of the
dry surge and fire weather into play. Will need to seem how
things settle from today...but anywhere along and ahead of the
dry line could see significant severe weather, including intense
supercells with very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat looks to be along and
E/NE of the Hwy 81 corridor. Late afternoon and early evening is
the main time frame of concern for dry line storms. Another
batch of severe storms with mainly a large hail and wind threat
could move in from the NW along the primary cold front late
Sunday evening and into the overnight.

Fire weather discussion will be included below shortly.

Exactly how things unfold Sunday will determine frontal location
for Monday. As mentioned above, this is trending further E/SE
such that most of out area could be on the cool side of the
front by midday. In fact, far N/NW zones could struggle to get
out of the 50s while far S/SE zones push 90F. A strong spring
front, indeed, that is bound to spark off widespread severe
weather...just a question of if it`s here or just E/SE.

Not much time spent in the extended periods as it appears fairly
quiet.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Severe thunderstorms are near both terminals to start the 00Z
forecast period. Storm motion has been near-stationary, so will
continue with PROB30 mentions for now. Eventually storms will
move over each terminal by the end of the evening, but there is
increasing uncertainty in their severity beyond 02-03Z. Large
hail and damaging winds are possible with any storm. Heavy rain
from storms will also reduce visibility to at least IFR levels
at times. Chances for thunderstorms diminish overnight. MVFR
ceilings could develop late tonight into Sunday morning. Outside
of thunderstorms, winds will remain breezy through the forecast
period with easterly direction through tonight turning to
southerly by Sunday afternoon. There are low chances for
thunderstorms developing mid to late Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible along and south of
the Nebraska-Kansas state line Sunday afternoon and evening. This
roughly includes areas along and between Highways 183 and 281, and
along and south of Highway 136. Winds will turn from southeast to
south Sunday morning and increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
40 mph in the afternoon. Relative humidity is forecast to fall as
low as 10 to 15 percent. Near critical fire weather conditions
could extend north along and to the east of the Highway 281
corridor, where winds will be similar but humidity slightly
higher.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for NEZ083>085.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NWS Bismarck
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...NWS Bismarck
FIRE WEATHER...NWS Bismarck

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion