Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

006
FXUS63 KOAX 042324
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through mid-week.

- Increasing precipitation chances Thursday night through Friday
  night. Some snow accumulation appears possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

After another morning of patchy fog, skies have mostly cleared
across the area this afternoon, allowing temperatures to creep
into the 50s on the western fringes of the CWA where the sun
first poked through the sky cover.

.TONIGHT...

As winds become light and variable, expect to see more patchy
fog development overnight, this time focused mostly in Iowa.
Dense fog is likeliest beyond our coverage area, but patchy
minor reductions in visibility are possible, especially
southeast of Omaha. HREF probabilities of visibility falling
below 1 mile range from 10-40% across western and far southeast
Nebraska.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Temperatures remain well above normal through the first half of
the workweek. Southerly flow on Monday will be offset by an
increase in mid-level cloud cover; expect more 50s. A weak cold
front Monday night puts up another road block for warming temps.
No such barriers are apparent in Wednesday`s forecast. Sunshine
and southwesterly winds should allow temps to peak in the
mid-50s to lower 60s. Current forecast has max temps falling
2-10 degrees shy of standing records.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A closed-low ejects northeast from the Baja Peninsula area on
Wednesday, bringing a threat of rain and snow to the south-
central CONUS by mid-day Thursday. Significant discrepancies on
timing and placement of the surface low remain between the three
primary forecast systems (EC/GFS/GEM). The Euro is farther
north, but the North American models have certainly acquiesced
to a significant degree with today`s 12Z runs.

Regardless, Thursday`s chances for accumulating snow have grown
over the past 48 hours. FWIW, the NBM suggests a 10-20% chance
of more than 3" of snow for most of the CWA. This may be one of
those systems where snow totals are dependent on temperatures
with a rain/snow line bringing disparate impacts to neighboring
counties. Cooler air will build in behind the deepening system
as it departs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals this evening. Winds
will become light under 12 kts within the next hour, turning
west southwest late this evening. Winds become south southeasterly
for much of the daytime Monday but remain under 12 kts.

Fog development may occur primarily at KOMA and KLNK around 12z
(30-45% chance) based on latest hires model guidance. However, some
discrepancies are still noted with timing and location. Have
introduced mentions of lower ceilings around this timeframe at
those two respective terminals but kept in VFR. If confidence
increases, expect to see potential BR and MVFR visibility mentions
with the 06z issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

600
FXUS63 KGID 042334
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
534 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild/warm (though probably not quite as warm as
  the record-setting highs today) temperatures and dry
  conditions continue through mid week.

- Pattern turns colder and potentially more wintry late this
  week into next weekend.

- Forecast confidence is low, but some ensemble guidance gives
  at least a 40-50% chance for impactful snow and wind to at
  least portions of the forecast area mainly on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

As hinted at yesterday, temperatures have "overachieved"
forecast guidance once again this afternoon. Mixing has been
somewhat weak, but efficient, given SWrly low level flow, and
skies have been mostly sunny with just some recent increase in
high, thin clouds. Nearly perfect day for early January (unless
you love winter), and it even landed on a weekend!

Large scale pattern remains largely unchanged through midweek,
featuring SWrly to zonal mid-upper flow and mostly Srly to Wrly
low level flow - favorable for downsloping warmth atop
relatively warm/dry ground locally and upstream. There will be a
few weak disturbances that traverse the zonal flow, but these
will be mostly weak, Pacific-based, and lacking low level
moisture. One of these waves will move through Mon eve/night,
and another even weaker one Tue PM. Neither of these are
expected to bring anything more than passing cloud cover.
Temperatures will thus remain well above normal for early
January, with daily highs in the 50s to lower 60s...and lows
only a few degrees either side of freezing. One thing to note,
even though Monday will be several degrees cooler (perhaps has
much as 5-10 deg), it will still be fairly pleasant with some
filtered sunshine and very light winds at only 5-10 MPH.

Changes begin to take shape on Thursday as a deeper upper trough
approaches from the W, and a stronger cold front moves through
the region. Thursday will likely be a transition day, and could
see fairly large differences in sensible weather from NW to SE
across the area - depending on timing and placement of
aforementioned cold front. SE zones could remain mild(ish) and
run chance for showers, whereas far N/NW zones may struggle to
get out of the 40s amidst low clouds and chilly NE wind.

Friday looks to be the period with the greatest potential for
impactful weather. As mentioned yesterday, most of the major
ensemble guidance is in good agreement of a general downward
trend in temperatures Friday into the weekend, and at least SOME
chance for wintry precipitation within this transition period.
However, there remains some fairly significant differences in
magnitude and placement of the wintry precipitation. For
instance, latest EPS gives majority of the forecast area at
least a 40-50% chance for accumulating snow - which would most
likely be accompanied by some decently gusty winds. On the other
hand, the GEFS gives only 10-20% chances for accumulating snow,
and not as much wind. These differences appear to stem from
differing ideas on how quickly a system intensifies over the
Plains on Friday, with the EC faster/further W compared to GFS.
Still plenty of time to work out specifics and for model data to
change, just know that Friday has the POTENTIAL to feature some
of the more impactful wintry weather we`ve had thus far this
season (yes, it`s a low bar). With the stronger EC also comes
stronger winds, with several of the EPS members giving 6hr peak
gusts around 40-50 MPH on Friday. So again, something to watch.

Temperatures may really struggle behind the system next weekend,
but exactly how cold will depend on snow cover from Friday`s
system. Could be situation where highs remain below freezing and
lows dip into at least the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored, with only a low chance (10-20%) for
patchy, shallow fog Monday morning. Winds become light/variable
tonight, and remain light through Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion