Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

830
FXUS63 KOAX 181047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below
  freezing for many locations. Sensitive early season
  vegetation could be damaged.

- Dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to Very High to
  Extreme Fire Danger across northeast Nebraska into western
  Iowa Saturday afternoon and evening.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Sunday. Relatively warm,
  dry, and quiet weather will accompany this until our next
  potential weather system by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After an active day of severe weather across much of the Midwest
and Great Plains, much quieter weather is beginning to set in
behind a strong cold front. Much cooler air is continuing to
filter in late this evening on gusty northwest winds. Much of
the area will see temperatures bottom out in the upper 20s to
low 30s with only portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa remaining above freezing by Saturday morning. With this in
mind, portions of the area are under a Freeze Warning where
significant greening of vegetation has begun. Temperatures will
gradually warm into the 50s by Saturday afternoon. While the
main shortwave from Friday will be well east of the area, the
base of a broader trough will be passing overhead during the
afternoon. This will support continued gusty northwest winds.
These winds combined with relative humidity below 20 percent for
much of the area results in Very High to Extreme Fire Danger
for northeast Nebraska and portions of western Iowa. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for the aforementioned area due to this. Winds
will finally begin to weaken Saturday evening as surface high
pressure builds across the region. Sunday morning starts cold
once again, mainly in the 30s. Some locations north of
Interstate 80 may see sub-freezing temperatures as well.
Thankfully, a warming trend begins by Sunday afternoon.

Sunday afternoon onwards sees the return of warmer, but
relatively quiet and dry weather into at least the middle of
next week. Upper-level ridging will begin to build across the
Great Plains as surface high pressure slides east of the region.
Temperatures climb back into the 60s on Sunday, 70s on Monday,
and 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of our next potential
weather system. Late Wednesday into Thursday a large trough
across the western CONUS begins to eject into the Great Plains.
At this time, significant differences in the exact evolution of
this system remain, but an active pattern appears likely.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast with severe
potential a possibility given the time of year. A cold front
then appears to arrive by the end of the week into next weekend.
More concrete details should be known as we move through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast
period. Expect breezy northwest winds after sunrise, persisting
through 00-02Z, before decreasing as surface high pressure sets
up to the south. A few models hinted at maybe a brief shower in
the area today; however, with fairly dry conditions, any showers
that are able to develop would most likely evaporate before
reaching the ground (virga).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ030-042>044-
     050-051-065-078-088.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

158
FXUS63 KGID 181123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze Warning in effect until 9am with temperatures in the
  20s to low 30s.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected today due to the combination
  of NW winds gusting 25-35mph and low relative humidity. A Red
  Flag Warning is in effect 12-8pm.

- Another round of near-below freezing temperatures possible tonight.


- Above normal temperatures Sunday-Thursday with highs generally
  in the 70s and 80s. Next chance for rain arrives Wednesday
  night onwards, though the best chances look to be north/east
  of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Clear skies, light winds and a seasonably cool airmass have resulted
in temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s this morning. Aloft the
area is under the base/center of a trough traversing through the
Plains. Temperatures are expected to bottom out around sunrise, in
the low 20s (northwest) to low 30s (southeast). A Freeze Warning
remains in effect for the area until 9am.

A seasonably cool day is expected across the area under the
influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will be in the mid 50s
(north) to low 60s (south). Despite the cooler weather, dewpoints in
the single digits and teens will result in afternoon relative
humidity values dropping into the teens. Breezy northwest winds
gusting 25-35mph combined with the low humidity will result in
critical fire weather conditions across the area. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect from 12pm to 8pm.

Clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to once again drop
towards freezing tonight-Sunday morning. Temperatures Sunday morning
look to be a few degrees warmer than this(Saturday) morning (lows:
upper 20s-low 30s). A Freeze headline was considered, but given the
slightly warmer temperatures, a true hard freeze appears marginal at
this time. If temperatures trend cooler, a headline may be needed.

Northwesterly flow aloft builds over the area on Sunday, with highs
climbing above normal in the mid 60s (northeast) to upper 70s
(southwest). Light winds and mostly sunny skies will result in a
fairly pleasant day across the area. Otherwise the forecast remains
largely on track with warming temperatures continuing into the
middle of the week (highs 80s). The next chance for precipitation
arrives Wednesday night onwards as another broad trough moves into
the area. While there remains spread in model guidance, ensemble
guidance indicates the best chances are north/east of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This Afternoon into Tonight...

The wind will remain gusty at 40 to 45 mph at times until we
lose diurnal heating/mixing around sunset. The wind will die
down overnight and with clearing skies after midnight we expect
pretty cold frosty temperatures. Lows are expected to drop into
the lower 20s northwest to around 32 in Beloit with a pretty
solid freeze for most areas. Get out there and cover your
vulnerable plants if you already have them in the ground. You
will also need to remember to cover them again Saturday night
for round two of the sub-freezing temperatures.


Saturday...

We have a really impressive sounding with steep dry adiabatic
lapse rates to over 650 mb indicating strong mixing down of
stronger winds aloft. Therefore, increased winds a bit above
NBM guidance using a mix down tool for both winds and dew
points. Consequently, also lowered dew points and RH values a
bit below NBM. The wind will be more marginal across north
central Kansas, but still enough to warrant a Red Flag.


Sunday...

The wind will be lighter and we expect one more cold sub-
freezing morning in the string of cold. It`s highly likely that
most if not all areas will need another frost or freeze headline
for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Plan on covering your
sensitive plants the next two nights.

With the dry airmass in place we do expect a nice warmup into
the 70s by Sunday afternoon.


Monday and Tuesday...

An upper level ridge will swing into the region and we expect
dry and very warm conditions for this time of year with highs
in the 80s.


Wednesday through Friday...

The next upper trough will enter the high plains as early as
Wednesday, although the better chances for thunderstorms will be
west of us on Wednesday. This trough will slowly move across the
plains through the end of the week and it`s too early to tell
how much rain if any we will get from this system. A lot will
depend on the strength and timing of this wave and it`s too far
away to get a good handle on that. But at least our next chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this
system mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Northwest winds
increase late this morning. Sustained winds around 15kts and
gusts around 25kts are expected starting around noon and
continuing through sunset. Winds quickly drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable overnight. Skies are clear this
morning, but a mid-level cloud deck moves into the area this
afternoon. It is possible an isolated shower is embedded within
this deck, but precipitation is not expected to reach the
ground given high cloud bases. Skies clear overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Northwest winds gusting 25-35mph are expected during the late
morning hours through sunset, strongest along/north of Interstate
80. Despite highs only in the 50s and 60s, dewpoints in the single
digits and teens will result in relative humidity values in the
teens. This will result in critical fire weather conditions
across the entire area during the afternoon and evening hours. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for the area 12-8pm. While winds
drop off after sunset due to a loss of atmospheric mixing,
relative humidity values will be slower to improve, remaining
below 40% through midnight.

Fire weather concerns are low on Sunday as winds are much lighter
across the area, with gusts generally below 20mph. Relative humidity
values of 10-20% are possible along and southwest of the Tri-Cities
during the afternoon. A brief window of near-critical conditions
could develop across Phillips/Smith/Rooks/Osborne counties where
gusts of 20-25mph can`t be ruled out.

At least near-critical fire weather conditions are possible across
portions of the area Monday-Friday due to the overlap of low
humidity (10-20% and breezy winds (gusts at least 20-30mph). The
strongest winds are Wednesday-Friday, though there remains a fair
amount of spread in model guidance bringing uncertainty on the
coverage of lower RH values.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion