Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

647
FXUS63 KOAX 130515
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1215 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern continues with the potential for
  precipitation across portions of the area several days. A few
  strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
  Friday.

- Fire weather concerns are expected Monday afternoon as
  relative humidity values fall into the mid-teens to mid-20s. A
  few wind gusts of 25-35mph will be possible in the afternoon;
  however, they will not be co-located with the lowest RH
  values.

- Cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s) are currently
  in the forecast for the weekend. Expect a chance of a few
  showers Saturday with potential drier conditions Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The forecast period starts a few light returns showing up on radar
this evening in North Platte`s CWA. A few sprinkles or light showers
will be possible over the next few hours; however, little to no
accumulation is expected. The dryline is currently cutting across
central Nebraska up into northeastern Nebraska this evening.

Heading into Monday, expect another warm day with highs in the low
to mid-80s across the region. Models are showing us staying dry for
much of the day, with maybe a few isolated showers/storms developing
later in the day. While shower/storm activity may not be a concern,
those with outdoor interests will want to keep an eye on the fire
weather potential for the afternoon. Minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the mid-teens to low 20s for areas along and
west of a line from Verdigre to Norfolk to Crete. These areas with
the lowest RH values will not be co-located with the strongest
winds. A couple models are struggling to bring winds up to near RFW
criteria in those areas.

Low pressure is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rockies
on Tuesday. The low will lift to the northeast accompanied by a warm
front. Temperatures will climb into the 70s for areas north of the
front and 80s behind the front. Instability will increase through
the afternoon in the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms, a few
of which may become strong to severe will be possible across the
eastern part of the area. The main concerns with any severe storms
would be large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Storms
are currently expected to develop in the eastern part of our area,
strengthening on their way out of the CWA.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as an
upper trough north of the Four Corners lifts northeast into Central
Nebraska by daybreak and eastern Nebraska in the afternoon. Expect a
cooler day with highs only reaching the 70s for most areas.

Weak ridging over the Great Plains Thursday will give us a chance to
dry out a bit before the next chances for precipitation on Friday.
Low pressure over northern Minnesota will be set up Friday
afternoon. A cold front will slide southeast into the region,
accompanied by a shortwave trough coming out of the Central High
Plains. Strong to severe storms are currently expected Friday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Nebraska/western
Iowa. Subject to change, the best chance right now for storms would
be along and east of an Omaha to Lincoln line.

Expect some cooler weather heading into the weekend with highs in
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with passing mid to
high clouds, though could see a few clouds around 2000 ft at OMA
this morning. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly through
the day with gusts of 20-25 kts at OMA and LNK by mid to late
morning through the afternoon. OFK will see slightly weaker
winds, with direction becoming westerly by this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

637
FXUS63 KGID 130522
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Valley and Greeley counties
  this afternoon until 7PM for critical fire weather
  conditions.

- Widespread near-crtitcial to critical fire weather conditions are
  possible to return Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is
  in effect from 12p-9PM for all of north central Kansas and
  south central Nebraska counties south and east of a line from
  Kearney to Merrick counties.

- High temperatures will range between the 70s and 80s through Thursday
  with temperatures dropping to mainly the 50s and 60s over the
  weekend.

- Scattered shower and storm chances return Tuesday evening (20-50%),
  Wednesday (20-40%) as well as Friday night (30-40%).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

With wind/relative humidity conditions improving this evening,
allowed the Red Flag Warning for Valley and Greeley to expire on
time this evening. Looking ahead to Monday, after making some
overall minor adjustments to things, decided to go ahead and
upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which
runs from noon to 9PM. That end time may end up being too
generous, will see how things trend. Did not expand the area
further northwest at this point...models continue to show that
while afternoon relative humidity values drop into the 10-15
percent range, there may be a relative lull in wind speeds/gusts
compared to central and southeastern areas. Again...will see how
models trend overnight...it wouldn`t take much of a bump up to
push the need to expand.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026


This afternoon:

Though the southeast winds this afternoon are not as strong as they
were overnight and this morning, a few northern and eastern portions
of the area may still see some residual 25-30MPH wind gusts. With
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s today, RH values have
fallen as low as 15-20% for the northwest half of the area. Near
Critical fire weather conditions have set up across Nebraska areas
north of I-80 including portions Nebraska west of HWY-183. The
slightly gustier winds across Valley and Greeley counties
(occasionally gusts as high as 25-30MPH) will meet critical
conditions. As result, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until
7PM tonight for those counties.


Monday:

Even drier conditions are expected to develop Monday as dewpoints
fall to the 20s and 30s. Afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid
to upper 80s will bring RH values down to as low as 10-20%
areawide. Returning southwest winds for Monday afternoon will blow
stronger than today (gusts as high as 20-30MPH). As result,
widespread near-critical fire weather conditions will redevelop area
wide. The worst of the conditions (strongest wind winds gusts) will
settle across the southeast 2/3rds of the area. As result, a fire
weather watch between 12PM and 9PM was issued this forecast cycle to
include all of our north central Kansas counties as well as south
central nebraska counties south and east of a line from Kearney to
Merrick counties. It is likely that the evening shift today will look
to upgrade the Watch if not just a portion of the area over to a Red
Flag Warning later this evening/tonight.


Tuesday:

Though temperatures may fall a few degrees for Tuesday (upper 70s to
mid 80s), dewpoints should retain in the upper 30s and 40s. Thus
afternoon RH values are likely to still drop to critical levels 15-
20% across the southwest half of the area and below 30% across the
remainder of the area. The main factor that will determine if
critical fire weather conditions will be met cross a few places will
be the winds. Currently, south to easterly winds Tuesday afternoon
are favored to gust as high as 15-30MPH, with the strongest gusts
concentrated along areas near and south of the state line.
Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions seem locked in,
though only a few north central Kansas and a few far south central
Nebraska areas may have the potential to actually observe critical
conditions. A fire weather watch for southern portions of the area
may be considered (not guaranteed) either tonight or during the day
Monday.


Wednesday & Beyond:

Cooler temperatures (besides Thursday) may keep fire weather
concerns somewhat limited across the rest of the week. A few
scattered areas of near-critical concerns may materialize each day.
The next and best potential for critical fire weather thresholds
being met will be Thursday as highs briefly climb back up to the
80s. Though winds look to be gusty enough to support conditions at
first glance, a few forecast elements may change between now and
then that could impact the coverage of critical fire weather
conditions.


-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap  of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained   winds/gusts
of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as  the
overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained  winds/gusts
15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...with any cloud cover passing through expected to remain
in the mid-upper levels. Expecting overall light winds through
the overnight hours, current winds are generally south-
southeasterly...potentially turning more variable later
tonight-early Mon AM. Through the daytime hours Monday,
expecting more westerly winds to develop...with afternoon gusts
near 25-30 MPH not out of the question...with winds then turning
northwesterly for the final few hours of the period thanks to a
passing frontal boundary.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ048-049-062>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion