Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

743
FXUS63 KOAX 102322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
522 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming much warmer this week with highs reaching the 60s to
  low 70s by Friday

- Dry through the work week followed by a 20-40% of
  precipitation this weekend, though confidence is rather low in
  the details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Quiet and cool across the region today as a surface trough was
pushing through on the western periphery of an upper level
trough/cutoff low over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures as of 3
PM were in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Southwesterly winds will
pick up tonight on the back side of departing high pressure and
ahead of incoming shortwave energy and a surface front over the
Pacific Northwest. The warm air advection will lead to some
increased cloudiness to start the day, but most of those clouds
should quickly exit to our southeast and give way to decent
sunshine in the afternoon. Winds will become northwesterly
behind the front, but temperatures on Tuesday will be much
warmer with downsloping helping to warm us into the upper 50s
and 60s.

We`ll stay warm through the end of the week and possibly into
Saturday as a mid level ridge gradually shifts eastward and
southerly low level flow sets up between eastward departing high
pressure and developing low pressure east of the Rockies.
Expect highs mostly in the 60s and possibly a few 70s by Friday,
with lows mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Guidance then starts to diverge quite a bit heading into the
weekend. The general idea is that a cutoff low pushes into the
Desert Southwest Friday and across the Southern Plains through
Sunday. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough and area of surface
low pressure develop over the Dakotas/southern Canada and help
to drag a cold front through the area Saturday. Guidance
indicates there will be precipitation development along the cold
front at some point, but whether that`s over us or to our east
remains the big question as there`s still lots of spread in
various ensemble members regarding timing, track, and
interaction of the various features. Overall consensus gives us
a 20-40% chance of precip Saturday afternoon, through Sunday,
with perhaps some lingering into Monday. If we do get anything,
it currently looks like it should be mostly rain, but plenty of
guidance suggests we stay completely dry, too, so overall
confidence is on the lower side regarding precip. There`s more
confidence in temperatures heading into next week, as we will
cool down behind the front, but it`s looking fairly seasonable,
with highs back in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Winds will remain out of the south/southwest tonight, around
10-12 kts this evening with a few gust as highs as 20 kts
possible overnight. LLWS is expected to develop around 04-06Z
tonight and continue until 10-12Z, expect 40-50 kt winds out of
the southwest at 2000 ft agl. Surface winds will remain below
12kts Tuesday morning, but increase to 12-15 kts after 15Z, as
they turn to the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

540
FXUS63 KGID 102331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
531 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures return on Tuesday and continue for
  the rest of the work week. Expect afternoon highs in the 60s
  to around 70F each afternoon!

- Dry weather will prevail until a cold front and large scale
  pattern change arrives on Saturday. The weekend will be cooler
  with 15-30% chances for precipitation.

- Details regarding the weekend system remain uncertain, but
  rain appears more probable than snow at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Highly amplified pattern in place per afternoon water vapor
imagery thanks to impressively deep (500mb heights near -4
standard deviations) trough extending from the Great Lakes
through the Ohio R Valley all the way down into Florida. This
trough has gotten the lake effect snow machine going and is
causing widespread Freeze Warnings across the Deep South...all
the way down to the Gulf Coast. On the flip side, a strong upper
ridge can be seen anchored over the Desert SW. Locally, we`re
caught in between the departing trough and advancing ridge and
are left with strong meridional upper flow. At the surface, the
center of the strong high pressure that brought AM lows in the
single digits to teens is gradually shifting E/SE into the MS
Valley, allowing for return Srly flow to become established
over the Plains. We haven`t really seen the Srly flow improve
temps a whole lot today as much of this air is recycled polar
air, and copious cirrus is streaming overhead from the crest of
the upper ridge leading to heavily filtered sunshine.

The eastern trough will remain progressive tonight and allow for
deamplifying long wave pattern and a return to more zonal/NW
upper flow locally. A fast-moving shortwave will move through
and turn winds from S to NW for Tuesday, but expect temps to
actually jump significantly thanks to stronger mixing of a
largely Pacific airmass that has had some
downsloping/modification. Less cloud cover will also help. As
such, model guidance remains in good agreement that the entire
forecast area will warm in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A
significant jump from today that will be aided by warmer morning
temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s. It will be on the breezy
side, esp. by afternoon and for areas N of I-80 where gusts up
to around 25-30 MPH will be possible. Will need to keep an eye
on hourly wind/RH trends as there could be enough overlap to
cause some near- critical fire wx for a time in our far W/SW
zones. Here, RHs are likely to fall into at least the lower 20s.
Fortunately,forecast sounds suggest gusts should be lighter
than further N and only around 20 MPH. Something to monitor.

The rest of the week looks incredibly quiet and warm/mild, with
no real signs of a particularly breezy/windy/dry day for fire
weather concerns...or for a stronger shortwave and any sneaky
low-end precip chances. Instead, it looks like we`ll be left
with a few very nice days featuring highs in the 60s to lower
70s, light winds, and copious sunshine. Of the three days Wed-
Fri, Fri could be the warmest...but might also have more cloud
cover to contend with ahead of our next cold front.

Model guidance remains in decent agreement in bringing our next
cold front into the region on Saturday, but confidence in
exactly HOW this happens in terms of timing, placement, and just
overall configuration of upper troughs, is still quite low. If
anything, there has been a trend towards splitting the strongest
disturbances around the local area...one to the NE, and a
slower and potentially stronger one to the SW/S that may not
come out until Sun or early the following week. If this trend
persists, then our current 15-30ish PoPs would probably only
remain steady or even decrease as we`d have the cold frontal
passage, but not a lot in the way of deep moisture/lift. Still
several days away, but regardless of precipitation chances,
confidence is HIGH that the really unseasonably warm weather
will come to an and over the weekend and temperatures will fall
back into the 50s to around 60F - which is actually still pretty
mild for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. A developing LLJ
will result in LLWS developing at KGRI/KEAR before midnight.
LLWS will weaken around 09z, as the LLJ moves east of the area,
with surface winds becoming light and variable as they shift
from the southwest to the northwest. Winds increase during the
late morning hours, with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts
around 20kts during the afternoon, becoming lighter at the end
of the TAF period. SCT-BKN high level clouds are expected
overnight, with FEW-SCT high level clouds during the daytime
hours on Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion