Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

502
FXUS63 KOAX 211041
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
541 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be the main
  concern overnight. One to two inch rainfall totals expected
  with isolated totals three to five inches mainly south.

- Another low chance (30%) of showers/storms for northeast
  Nebraska Sunday afternoon. Not anticipating much of a risk for
  severe weather with these storms.

- Pleasantly mild temperatures for the first full week of
  summer. High temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in
  the 50s are expected. Periodic chances for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Showers have overspread our area across eastern Nebraska and
most of southwest Iowa this evening. The instability axis has
set up farther southwest than anticipated, driving stronger
storms generally south of our area out of central Nebraska at
least so far this evening. We still have the nose of the low-
level jet forecast to shift eastward into our area closer to
midnight tonight. If this occurs, this should lead to
additional destabilization in the elevated mixed layer,
potentially ramping up more thunderstorm activity across our
southern counties. The one element that could hamper this is
that storms over northwestern Kansas right now are disrupting
the 850-mb jet. If this continues, we would see less of an
impact from the LLJ, which would limit any additional
convective growth.

A second wave of showers and storms move in from the west
overnight, currently active over the Nebraska Panhandle. This
will be weakening as it moves into a more stable air mass, but
could bring additional rainfall to areas that will have seen a
decent amount of rain already. So far our heaviest rainfall
amounts have occurred along the convective line through Saline,
Jefferson, Gage, and Pawnee Counties. A swath of Jefferson
County saw 3.5 to 3.85 inches of rain with the storm that moved
through earlier, so we`ll be watching this area for any
additional heavy rainfall overnight. With this second round,
heaviest rainfall amounts will occur along the southern part of
that line closer to the nose of the LLJ. This again will greatly
depend on the amount of influence we can get from the LLJ coming
up out of Kansas. The potential development toward midnight
tonight and the second wave closer to 3-5 AM both still bring
chances for heavy rain and flash flooding across southeastern
portions of our area, so leaving the Flood Watch in place for
now.

Rain clears out of our area around 7-8 AM on Sunday with clouds
lingering through the day on Sunday. This should keep
temperatures cool with highs in northeast Nebraska only in the
upper 60s, and low-to-mid 70s across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Sunday afternoon and evening we see a vorticity
lobe move through bringing another chance for showers and
storms, mainly to northeast Nebraska. While most hi-res guidance
track these storms south into Kansas, the HRRR and FV3 bring
storms into northeast Nebraska. If they track into our area,
they should be trending weaker with not much of a risk for any
severe weather. These should be done by midnight.

Looking back at the broader picture, we have fairly zonal flow
across the Central Plains Sunday into Monday with ridging
building out west toward midweek. This will lead to a transition
to northwesterly flow starting Tuesday with the arrival of a
weak trough. This could bring some showers and storms Tuesday
morning into the afternoon but weak forcing and dynamic forcing
should keep any of this from being too much of a concern.

Weak shortwaves in the northwesterly flow will bring additional
periodic chances for rain through the end of the week. Highs
mostly stay in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s. Could see
a warming trend going into next weekend as deterministic
guidance start to push the ridge eastward into our area as a
trough moves out of the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW. This
would lead to enhanced southerly flow advecting hotter, more
humid air back into the region over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to linger through much of the
day, but should gradually improve, with VFR conditions expected
for most of the area by this evening/overnight. Showers will
also gradually exit this morning with perhaps a few brief
periods of MVFR visibility under any heavier showers. Winds will
generally be easterly to northeasterly with some gusts of 18-22
kts by late morning and through the afternoon. Guidance still
hints at a few spotty showers or even an isolated rumble of
thunder near OFK and/or LNK this afternoon/evening, but chances
remain low (20-30%) so did not include mention at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ030-042-043-050-
     051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

733
FXUS63 KGID 211133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rain and storms expected overnight. Severe storms
  are not likely but still possible (20% chance).

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the whole forecast area
  until 7 AM Sunday.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Rain and storms continue across portions of the area with most of
the previous storms now out of the forecast area. Additional storms
are developing to the west of the area and moving eastward. These
storms are mainly across the northern half of Nebraska. Additional
storm development may occur across southern portions of Nebraska.
There is some storms across northwest Kansas that are moving
eastward as well. The area most likely to see more storms this
evening and tonight is from along I-80 and northward. Although all
areas of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas have at
least a 50% chance of additional rain and/or storms this evening and
tonight. The severe weather threat is diminishing; however, an
isolated strong to severe storm is still possible. Rain and storms
will exit the area from west to east with the remainder of the
convection likely exiting the area around sunrise tomorrow. The
whole forecast area remains in a Flood Watch until 7 AM. Many areas
have already received around 3 to 4+ inches of rainfall so any
additional rain in these areas will likely cause flooding
issues. Areas that have not received much or any rainfall will
likely receive some overnight. Low temperatures overnight are
expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

Some additional showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm may
develop (around a 15% to 30% chance) Sunday morning and afternoon
across portions of the area. Storm chances increase Sunday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere becomes more unstable (areas of CAPE
above 2,000 J/kg, 0 to 6 km wind shear of around 30 to 50 knots, and
an increase of upper lift as a shortwave passes overhead). Models
are showing storms moving in from the west Sunday evening. The
forecast area is in a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to slight (level 2
out of 5) severe weather risk for Sunday afternoon and evening. The
greatest risk will be in western and southern portions of the
forecast area. Large hail (up to ping pong ball size), wind gusts up
to 60 MPH, and localized flooding (rain falling over already
saturated soils) will be possible. High temperatures Sunday are
expected to mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

-- QUICK UP FRONT "ADMIN NOTE":
Given earlier and upcoming severe storm/hydro concerns, the
remainder of this discussion will be HEAVILY weighted on just
these next 24-30 hours or so.


-- SHORTER TERM FOCUS SOLELY ON THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS (through
 Sunday evening):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM:
As was strongly suggested by higher-res models runs from 24
hours ago (even though some later runs incorrectly "backed off"
somewhat), much of the daytime hours featured a slow-moving
complex of elevated strong to marginally-severe storms, that
initiated in a north-northwest to south-southeast axis across
our western CWA earlier this morning, then gradually/slowly
expanded east as the day went on, while mostly ending except for
limited redevelopment along its western flank. This was a
classic recipe for marginally-severe hail (up to quarter size),
but more so localized heavy rain...with a roughly 20-30 mile
stripe across the heart of our Nebraska CWA realizing a solid
1.50-3.50".

As of this writing, only weak storms are ongoing within some of
our far northern/eastern counties, while slightly west of our
CWA, robust and more surface-based severe storms have erupted
over southwest NE/northwest KS, in a potent environment
characterized by at least 1500-2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and
around 50KT of effective shear. Meanwhile, our "silver lining"
to having so much daytime convection is that most of our CWA is
either relatively stable in the lower levels (or at least still
plenty capped), with the vast majority of available CAPE of the
elevated variety...largely muting any kind of shorter term
threat for damaging winds/tornadoes...but keeping the same
marginally-severe hail and heavy rain concerns in play.

Due to convection, quite a range in daytime high temps today,
from only 60s north...to low-mid 80s south.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Leaning heavily on higher-res models (particularly HRRR/RAP),
while there is little doubt that widespread rain/thunderstorms
will overtake our entire CWA with many areas seeing 2+ rounds of
storms or storm complexes (due to an upper disturbance impinging
upon at least modest instability, increasing low level jet later
tonight, etc.), there are still question marks about just HOW
SEVERE our storms might be. In short, expect the MAJORITY of
severe storm potential (especially damaging winds/possible QLCS
tornadoes) to target counties along/especially south of the KS
border...where the airmass is least contaminated by earlier-day
convection. Especially between 7 PM-Midnight, a storm
complex/possible mesoscale convective system (MCS) is most
favored to track east-southeastward across our southern CWA,
while more elevated activity develops across our north. Post-
midnight, another complex of storms (probably at least slightly
elevated?) could track southeastward through much of our
CWA...evolving from separate severe storm development that will
occur over northwest NE and the Panhandle.

Finally, between 5-7 AM Sunday, the back end of any widespread
storms are expected to clear out of our far southern/southeast
counties.


- MOST OF SUNDAY DAYTIME (through around 4 PM):
In the wake of widespread overnight convection, MOST of the day
is likely dry/thunderstorm free with an airmass slow to
"recover". Surface winds will also turn northerly in response to
the main surface low tracking to our south mainly across central
KS. Afternoon high temps aimed from low-mid 70s north to low 80s
south and far southwest.


- LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (after 4/5 PM):
Despite a less concerning setup than this evening-overnight, at
least isolated to perhaps scattered storm development is likely
as an upper disturbance dropping south into northern NE
interacts with a (by-now) more destabilized airmass featuring at
least 1000-2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 40-50KT of deep layer
shear. While coverage will likely be fairly limited, a few
severe storms with mainly a hail/wind threat appear
probable...likely most favoring our northern/western counties
(versus our eastern/southern counties). However, this Sunday
threat will be better analyzed once we get through tonight`s
round of more widepsread convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/MVFR ceilings have continued across the area this morning
as a band of showers continues off to the east. These lower
ceilings are expected to continue throughout the TAF period.
However, there is a little uncertainty about if they will be low
MVFR or IFR, hence the SCT IFR layer and the BKN MVFR layer.
Winds are expected to remain easterly through the afternoon,
with gusts up to 20kts possible.

Another round of isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening,
mainly between 01-05Z. However, confidence in thunderstorms actually
impacting the terminals is too low to include in the TAF,
especially as recent model guidance keeps these thunderstorms
to the East of KEAR/KGRI. A couple of models do have weak,
scattered showers moving into the area during this timeframe,
but again, confidence is not overly high on this possibility.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Quick summary of last 12 hours:
Although MOST of our forecast area (CWA) has received well
under 0.50" of rain so far today, a concentrated 20-30 mile wide
stripe of much higher amounts mainly 1.50-3.50" drenched parts
of our Nebraska CWA mainly along a diagonal (northwest-southeast
oriented )stripe centered from Pleasanton-Wood-River-Clay
Center-Bruning (and including Hastings). Within this stripe,
there was a fair amount of mainly shorter-term flooding of
fields, some rural roads and small creeks.

- Looking ahead next 12-14 hours:
Fortunately, the vast majority of the aforementioned stripe of
heavy rain has been dry now for at least 2-4 hours, but with the
potential for much of the CWA to see a widespread 1-3" yet this
evening-overnight (ON TOP OF what has already fallen in some
places), at least small portions of the CWA could end up with
4-6" 24-hour totals by sunrise Sunday. Due to the potential for
at least localized/short-term flooding to occur almost ANYWHERE
in our CWA through tonight, the Flood Watch that was initially
issued yesterday has since been expanded to include our entire
CWA...officially valid through 7 AM Sunday, by which time any
overnight rain should have all-but-departed our CWA...with any
ongoing flooding by then covered by potential Flood
Advisories/Warnings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- New June 20th Record Rainfall For Hastings (HSI):
With plenty of the calendar day yet to go (through Midnight
CST), Hastings Municipal Airport (HSI) has ALREADY BROKEN its
somewhat "weak" June 20th rainfall record with 1.58" (previous
record was 1.46" in 1967).

As for Grand Island Airport, the ASOS there has officially
measured 1.03" so far today...still shy of the June 20th record
of 1.92" set in 2010. However, this could also easily be broken
by the end of the calendar day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Scott
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion