Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

851
FXUS63 KOAX 041803
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
103 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms this evening, and if
  they develop, they could produce locally damaging winds and
  heavy rainfall.

- Quieter weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs
  in the upper 80s and low 90s.

- Storm chances return Wednesday and continue through the end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Locations south of a line from Columbus to Tekamah got a free
natural fireworks display early this morning as a handful of strong
storms popped-off over southeast Nebraska and into southwest Iowa.
While storms continued to weaken and gradually dissipate
through the morning, remaining cloud cover liberated us from
excessive heat. By noon, most locations had reached the mid and
upper 70s.

Although the atmosphere is fairly worked over across the southern
half of the CWA, decreasing cloud cover will allow instability to
boom across northeast Nebraska. Current mesoanalysis has a
couple thousand J/kg already over northeast Nebraska, with
lapse rates steepening. However, the flags on our shear vectors
remain modest at around 20 kts or less. A shortwave disturbance
will ripple out of the purple mountain majesties to our west
and soar through the Central Plains this evening and overnight,
sparking off another round of storms over north-central
Nebraska. Weak shear makes it unlikely that anyone will be
hailed upon, especially after the twilight`s last gleaming.
While initial gusty winds could blow down a few amber waves of
grain, most should remain steadfast as storms weaken with
southeastward progression. Overall it looks like locations along
and northwest of a line from Omaha to Lincoln could see a
strong storm or two between 7 PM and midnight, but storms should
weaken by the time they reach the ramparts of the I-80
corridor. The overnight hours should should be free of any red
glaring radar returns by midnight.

Sunday and Beyond...

Ridging will build over the desert southwest, bringing drier
conditions back to the fruited plains Sunday, Monday, and into
Tuesday. A few shortwaves will bring back storm chances
Wednesday into Thursday, with another system grilling us on
Friday. In the meantime, sunscreen will be a must to prevent
folks from getting too Red during outside activities under the
sunny skies. While temperatures won`t be quite as White hot as a
week ago, we will still see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
through the upcoming week. But if the heat has you feeling Blue,
don`t worry. In this part of America the weather changes faster
than you can say "USA".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period. A
few showers and storms could bubble up this afternoon, with a
better chance (15-30%) for a strong storm or 2 to roll through
this evening. The main threats would be strong winds up to 40-60
mph and heavy rainfall. Large hail appears unlikely at this
time. Winds will be variable at times, but eventually become
easterly this evening and overnight, remaining under 12 kts
outside of thunderstorms. Some patchy fog may develop overnight,
especially in low lying areas and locations that received
recent heavy rainfall.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

417
FXUS63 KGID 042017
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
317 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-40% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms north of
  I-80 this evening primarily between 5-10 PM. Overall trends
  show a drier evening with potentially nuisance type storms vs.
  stronger more organized thunderstorms.

- Dry for Sunday and the start of the work week.

- Periodic chances for thunderstorms for the second half of the
  work-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This evening and Tonight:
While this morning`s model guidance was a bit more robust, the
trend into the afternoon on the high-res hourly runs have
trended less active and more dry. This seems to coincide with
the assessment of the meso environment. The atmosphere across
much of central and south central Nebraska is impacted by this
morning`s lingering activity shower/thunderstorm activity. This
has created a cooler, more stable atmosphere with less shear.
Model simulations have trended to develop thunderstorms north of
the boundaries in the Sandhills, and then quickly dissipate them
as they move southeast. While this isn`t an all clear, the trend
is in the right direction for any evening 4th celebrations.
There could be some nuisance type activity primarily north of
I-80 this evening. Feel this is a 20-40% chance, that is lower
than I felt this morning when guidance was showing more robust
and organized convection.

Dry and seasonal for Sunday and the early part of the work week.
Upper level ridging builds in from the southwest. High temperatures
will be near 90 degrees.

By midweek, a couple of disturbances will move eastward,
breaking down the ridge and making the upper level flow more
zonal. This will bring more chances for off and on precipitation
through next Saturday. Beyond Saturday, more amplified upper
ridging builds into the intermountain west which will keep our
area under northwesterly flow and keep the potential for an
active period. Temperatures for the second half of the work week
are similar, with highs near 90, or slightly less in the upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

An outflow boundary moving northwestward across the area has
helped to develop what I expect to be a short period of MVFR
cumulus at KEAR, thus the Tempo group in the tafs. Cloud cover
near KGRI is moving southeastward away from the terminal, so
have kept them VFR. Largely expect VFR conditions throughout the
day today. Both terminals could be impacted by thunderstorms
this evening, but confidence is not high. Much of the high-res
model guidance indicates that thunderstorms could dissipate
before reaching the terminals. Thus have kept the Prob30 and not
included a prevailing or tempo group for thunderstorms this
evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion