Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

474
FXUS63 KOAX 081019
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
519 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible (20%) on Saturday
  morning with the potential for a complex of thunderstorms
  producing damaging winds and hail across eastern Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa.

- Wildfire smoke continues to move overhead from the northwest.
  Most of this smoke remains high in the atmosphere, with only
  a small amount reaching the surface.

- Regular chances of thunderstorms continue through the forecast
  with chances every day. Late Wednesday night and late Thursday
  night bring the best chances (40-70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Surface analysis shows a cold front pushing through the southernmost
counties of the CWA this evening with the only clouds betraying
the front`s exact location. Otherwise, skies are generally
cloud free but visible satellite imagery was tinted with
wildfire smoke at 7kft to 12kft. Thankfully, it`s expected to
stay elevated through at least Sunday.

The upper pattern reveals our cold front is tied to a shortwave trof
working through Ontario and a ridge spinning over the Desert
Southwest. Our pattern should become more zonal over the next few
days as the trofing continues east and the ridging southwest of
here dampens.

.TONIGHT...

Winds overnight will become light and variable, slowly becoming
easterly as the surface high settles in. Light southerly winds
will be in place in far northeastern Nebraska by sunrise.

Confidence had been growing in the arrival of a Saturday AM MCS
pushing from western South Dakota. However the last two runs of
the HRRR are now backing off.

CAM guidance has the complex developing in south- central South
Dakota overnight on the nose of a nocturnal LLJ in the vicinity
of the front. That elevated storm activity should push into
northeast Nebraska around 10am and may (5-10%) continue
southeast through the afternoon hours. Primary concern will be
the threat of severe weather (mostly hail) and how long the
convection can be maintained. Guidance has been vacillating on
how long it keeps the convection rumbling. With 750 and 500 hPa
temps warming through the day, lapse rates will be falling. The
storm would likely need to be buoyed by a cold pool to make it
to the Missouri state line. Hail and damaging winds are both
possible. This activity may help keep afternoon and evening
convection at bay by mixing the boundary layer.

Temps in northeast Nebraska peaked in the lower 80s today while
Omaha, Lincoln, and a handful of sites south of I-80 snuck up to 90
before the front pushed through. High temperatures on Saturday won`t
be all that far off with lower- to mid-80s expected across the area
despite falling heights. Smoke is expected to reflect 20-55% of
sunshine before it finds its way to the sfc. Winds will be
almost completely out of the south by sunset.

More thunder is possible (30%) in western Iowa again beginning after
midnight Saturday night as another LLJ interacts with the warm front
expected to be sitting somewhere near the Missouri River valley at
that point in time. Lapse rates and shear values suggest hail could
damage Iowan homes. As the SPC mentions, confidence remains "rather
low".

.SUNDAY...

Sunday will be spent in the warm sector leaving temps soaring past
the 90F mark thanks in part to southerly winds. Models have a wide
range of possible solutions which keeps confidence particularly low,
but the SPC does have the northern portion of the area
highlighted in a marginal threat of severe weather (category 1
of 5). The most likely outcome is initial afternoon / eve development
somewhere in western South Dakota that pushes east. The Euro is
gung ho on this idea.

.NEXT WEEK...

The general pattern remains quasi-zonal and relatively unstable
with the front draped across the area through at least mid-week.
This will bring chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons and
likely PoPs (40-70%) in the overnight hours when the summer
nocturnal jet sits perpendicular to that front. This will
produce efficient isentropic lift. With the extra clouds and
rain, temps are expected to struggle to meet seasonal norms. In
fact, early numbers from the NBM suggest day 7 will peak in the
70s (Friday 8/14).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Light winds and clear skies overnight have led to the
development of patchy fog, primarily in low lying areas. Any
MVFR or IFR visibilities should return to VFR shortly after
sunrise. A few showers and storms will be possible between
15-21Z Saturday, however confidence in storms holding together
and impacting the TAF sites remains low at this time. Otherwise,
light/variable winds will become easterly between 10-15 kts
Saturday. Another round of storms could develop between 03-09Z
Sunday morning. But again, confidence is low in exactly when and
where convection will develop.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

040
FXUS63 KGID 081250
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
750 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will be possible to start
  the day, especially for areas north of I-80 and east of
  Highway 281. A few of these could be strong to marginally
  severe. Hail to the size of quarters along with a few wind
  gusts to 60 MPH will both be possible.

- A few thunderstorms will also be possible late this afternoon
  and evening, especially across portions of north central
  Kansas. Again, hail to the size of quarters along with a few
  wind gusts to 60 MPH will both be possible.

- Heat index values near 100 to 105 degrees will be possible
  during the afternoon hours today through Tuesday, especially
  across areas south of I-80.

- Cooler and more unsettled weather returns to the local area
  for the middle and latter portion of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Confidence remains on the lower side on how things will develop
across the local area today. While there is sufficient elevated
instability to tap, the lack of a significant forcing mechanism
increases the uncertainty on how things will develop. Models
continue to develop a small area of thunderstorms across north
central Nebraska later this morning - along the axis of the low
level jet. While the better forcing is north of the local area,
expect these storms to drift southeast as the weaken during the
morning hours. Given the elevated instability, marginally
severe hail will be the greatest concern, although again, they
should be weakening as they cross the area and it is possible no
severe storms will be realized. In fact, had to force
thunderstorms into the forecast this morning as the predominant
weather type being given by the models was just showers.

Later today, models try to bring a weak upper level disturbance
from the west, clipping mainly our north central Kansas
counties. This could also spark some thunderstorms late this
afternoon or early evening, with marginally severe hail once
again being the greatest concern. Other than the chance for
thunderstorms, temperatures will continue to warm across the
local area today, with heat index values likely exceeding 100
degrees across the southern half of the area. Given the fact we
have had significant upper level haze (smoke) the past few days
that has likely contributed to underachieving high temperatures,
actually nudged down temps a couple of degree from the previous
forecast for this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon.

Above normal temperatures along with limited thunderstorm
coverage will then continue into early next week before the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal and active, bringing
cooler temperatures and a much better chance for unsettled
weather late in the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

General Overview...

Broad ridging out west with troughing to the east leaves the area
underneath northwest flow today. Across the next few days, the upper-
level pattern will be expected to return back to a more zonal (less
amplified) flow with occasional shortwave disturbance possible to
pass through over the next week. Though a few scattered storms may
pop up here and there over the weekend into early next week, the
majority of the area should remain fairly dry with gradually
increasing rain/storm chances across the middle to end of next week.
As for temperatures, highs will gradually increase by a few degrees
each day through Sunday before trending the other direction for a
majority of next week.


Tonight and Saturday...

Though some areas of fog can`t be completely ruled out across a few
locations mainly south if I-80 tonight (20-50% chance), the coverage
and intensity of any frog that develops should not be as
widespread/intense as this past morning. The latest HREF guidance
has 50% of its ensemble members projecting fog with only 20% of its
members showing dense fog. In comparison of the HREF guidance 24-
hours earlier (guidance for this past morning), 60% of its members
had fog with 40% of them dense. As result to the decreased model
confidence, we suspect that any fog that does manage to develop
will not be as dense or widespread as from this past morning.

The even bigger question for Saturday morning will be the potential
for a few storms to materialize out of the Nebraska sandhills region.
Current high resolution forecast guidance has been in and out with the
overall coverage of these storms, leading to lower than normal
confidence for our PoPs (only up to 10-30%). The best chances for
thunderstorm activity will generally be concentrated north of I-80
and east of HWY-281 between 7AM and 2PM.

Despite the uncertainty for storm coverage, the conditions would
generally be supportive enough for severe weather for any given
location that does see a thunderstorm. As a result, the SPC keeps a
majority of the area (all of south central Nebraska and Philips,
Smith and Jewell counties in north central Kansas) included in a
Marginal severe weather outlook. Conditionally, some elevated CAPE
(up to 3,000-4,000J/kg above 800mb) paired with a nocturnal low-
level jet (25-40kts of bulk shear) should be supportive enough for
helping a few of these storms become potentially strong to severe.
Though hail up to the size of quarters may be possible within a few
of the taler (generally stronger) storms, the main concern would be
for gusty thunderstorm winds up to near 60MPH.

Beyond the chance for storms in the morning, a few isolated to
scattered pop up storms can`t be ruled out across the evening or
nighttime hours as well. Highs for Saturday are expected to
climb back to as high as the upper 80s and 90s for a majority of
the area, though a few far southeast Nebraska and north central
Kansas locations may reach the low 100s (20-50% chances). This
warm up will carry on through the weekend as southerly winds
help advect in a warmer and humid airmass.


Next Week...

Highs peaking Sunday (90-104 degrees; warmest towards the southwest)
will be followed a multi-day cool down following the passage of a
cold front Sunday night into Monday morning as well as the presence
of increasing cloud coverage. NBM probabilities even show a 60-80%
chance for highs to stay below 80 degrees Thursday for south central
Nebraska and a 40-60% chance across north central Kansas. Though a
heat advisory has not yet been considered for Sunday, heat indices
will be expected to rise above 100 degrees across a majority of the
area with a 30-70% of heat index values reaching/exceeding 105
degrees across portions of north central Kansas. If this trend
continues, a heat advisory may be considered.

Besides the temperatures, a slightly wetter signal is beginning to
appear next week as daily PoPs return across the entire area starting
Monday night (20-30% chance). It is too early to fully analyze the
nightly thunderstorm potential that will be mainly based around the
specific timing for passing disturbances. That being said, sufficient
moisture, a warm/buoyant airmass and the return of a nocturnal low-
level jet, would all check the boxes needed for severe convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Areas of patchy fog have developed at some locations in the
area, including KEAR. While this fog is not expected to be
widespread or intense, MVFR visibilities are possible and
indicated as a tempo group. This fog is not expected to impact
KGRI, with visibilities likely remaining VFR should it occur.

A few scattered thunderstorms have developed in the Nebraska
panhandle, traveling SE towards the area. However, model
guidance has continued to show these storms weakening as they
approach the area, potentially dissipating altogether before
reaching the vicinity. If these storms stick around this far,
they should track NE of KEAR, potentially clipping KGRI between
14-18Z.

Winds will become more SE by this afternoon, increasing to
around 15kts, with gusts up to 25kts. Low-level wind shear is
likely tonight, as a SSW low-level jet develops atop of
weakening surface winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion