Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

611
FXUS63 KOAX 272105
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is expected to re-develop this evening/tonight in
  western Iowa and areas along the Missouri River.

- Rain, rain changing to snow, and snow are expected beginning
  this evening and continuing through Sunday. Accompanied by
  strong winds and plunging temperatures, there are some
  concerns about travel due to the potential for some lowered
  visibilities and slick spots on roads.

- Frigid temperatures are expected Monday morning, with lows in
  the single digits and teens and sub-zero wind chills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows some upper level clouds streaming
southwest to northeast across Nebraska and Iowa this afternoon.
Although somewhat obscured in spots by the higher level clouds, fog
can also be seen over the Omaha Metro south to Falls City, and
across the border into western Iowa. Fog will persist across the
region this afternoon and evening, with dense fog again possible
overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect for western Iowa
and our Nebraska counties along the Missouri River.

Heading into tonight, a closed low over Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and
the Dakotas will progress eastward toward the Great Lakes. A cold
front will slide southeast overnight, bringing in strong winds
(gusts 40-50 mph) and the potential for precipitation. There are two
areas we are keeping an eye out on for the evening hours into
tonight. The first will be an area mainly south of Interstate 80,
where rain will develop. Temperatures should remain warm enough for
the p-type to remain as rain through the overnight hours.

The second area of precipitation will be behind the front up in
northern Nebraska. Rain will transition over to snow, with a
possible brief period of sleet or a freezing wintry mix. Little to
no ice accumulation is possible. As we transition to snow, winds
will be gusty, bringing some concerns that the combination of
falling snow and strong winds will cause some visibility issues,
especially for travelers driving into the wind. With the warmer
temperatures, we do not have any snow currently on the ground for
the wind to blow around. The visibility concerns will be tied to
falling snow being blown around as it comes down. As a result of
that and concerns with holiday travel, a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for a portion of the day Sunday. A Wind Advisory has
also been issued for the entire forecast area for Sunday with winds
gusting to 40-50+ mph. As far as accumulations are concerned,
northeastern Nebraska could see a dusting to around 2.5 inches of
snow. Areas south of a line from Harlan to Columbus may receive
up to around an inch of snow. Little to no ice accumulation is
expected. However, with the precipitation that does fall and
temperatures falling through the day, there will be a
possibility for some slick surfaces.

Sunday night, lows will bottom out in the single digits for northern
Nebraska and portions of western Iowa. Areas along and south of a
line from David City to Omaha will fall into the 10-13 degree range.
Sustained northwest winds will be around 20-35 mph during the
overnight hours. The combination of windy conditions and cold
temperatures will result in sub-zero wind chills across the region.
Wind chills as low as 17 below zero will be possible.

Monday, the closed low continues to move east across the Great
Lakes. A fairly tight pressure gradient will linger over the Great
Plains through Monday morning. Winds will begin to decrease in the
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to struggle into the teens
and 20s with wind chills in the single digits and teens above
zero.

Warmer air moves into the region Tuesday as we come under northwest
flow with a ridge over the western CONUS. Expect highs to rebound
into the 30s along and east of the Missouri River and low to mid-40s
for much of eastern Nebraska. Slightly warmer weather is expected
Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 30s to upper 40s.

A mid-level shortwave trough moves through the region Wednesday
night/Thursday. Cooler air will move in with highs down to the
30s for most of the area. For the moment, the forecast is
currently looking dry for our area. The extended forecast shows
dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

KOFK/KLNK: VFR conditions are ongoing through this afternoon and
into the evening hours at the terminals. A cold front will push
into the region, bringing precipitation chances and gusty winds
to the region overnight and into Sunday. Expect a chance for
rain after midnight, with a short period of transition between
rain and snow at KOFK as temps drop. KLNK will have rain, with a
slightly longer period of mixed precipitation expected around
sunrise, before switching over to snow. Visibility reductions
are expected along with low stratus moving in.

KOMA: Fog continues to hang around early this afternoon,
bringing conditions down to MVFR/IFR. Fog remains a concern
through the TAF period as it is expected to get worse again
tonight. Was a little optimistic on the visibilities after 06Z,
but could see us potentially come down to IFR levels during the
overnight period. Rain will be possible after midnight, with a
transition period bringing a chance of a wintry mix before
changing over to all snow by around 15Z. Winds will shift to the
north after midnight as a strong cold front arrives.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM CST Sunday for NEZ034-045-052-
     053-067-068.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM CST Sunday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM CST Sunday for
     NEZ045-050>053-065>068-078.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM CST Sunday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM CST Sunday for
     IAZ043.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM CST Sunday for
     IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

764
FXUS63 KGID 272022
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
222 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front tonight will substantially cool temperatures
  down, bring strong winds and some light snow to the area
  Sunday morning.

- Light rain will transition to snow between mainly 4AM to 8AM
  from northwest to southeast across the area. A few tenths to
  1" of snow may be possible.

- North to northwest winds blowing between 25-35MPH may gust as
  high as 45-50MPH. These strong winds mixed with light snow
  during the morning Sunday could reduce visibilities and create
  temporarily hazardous driving conditions.

- Temperatures will continue to cool through the day Sunday,
  starting in the mid 20s to 30s and reaching the single digits
  to low teens overnight (windchills as low as -15 to 3
  degrees).

- Similar temperatures will return Monday followed by a brief
  warmup TUE/WED & FRI/SAT sending temperature into the 40s/50s
  (30s/40s for Thursday). The rest of the week remains
  precipitation free.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Despite the scattered clouds out and about this afternoon, light
warm air advecting west to southwesterly winds have allowed
temperatures to graze into the 60s, pushing near records. Be sure to
enjoy your last breath of these anomalously warm temperates, as a
cold front powering through tonight will pump in cold air down and
into central NE/KS. Temperatures will be expected to drop to the 20s
and 30s to start the day off Sunday, only getting colder and colder
through the day. Temperatures should reach the teens to mid 20s by
nighttime with overnight lows likely sweeping as low as the single
digits to low teens (wind chill values as low as -15 to 3 degrees).

A sharp surface gradient aligning behind the front with a
strengthening surface low Sunday will energize strong winds for the
morning to early afternoon hours. North to northwesterly blowing
winds between 25-35MPH may gusts as high as 45-50MPH (a few rogue
gusts up to 55MPH would not be too surprising either). Aloft, a
digging trough will swing down into the Central Plains, digging up
some mid-level assent and precipitation chances. A mix of rain and
snow showers will be expected to cover the area this evening into
Sunday morning. It is also important to note that we can`t completely
rule out a brief period of freezing rain inbetween, though given how
strong the cold air advection will be behind the front, we believe
that the transition period should occur fairly quick (less freezing
rain potential).

A few scattered light showers could break out as early as this
evening between 8PM and 3AM. Most models render some sort of coverage
with this "first course" of liquid precipitation. There is still a
bit of range between models regarding how expansive these
prefrontal showers may spread coverage-wise (The HRRR and RAP are
more generous than other models). In general, these leading showers
will mostly pop up south of I-80 or east of the Tri-Cities,
depositing minor amounts of liquid accumulations (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion