76°F
Updated:
6/10/2026
05:17:30am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
191 FXUS63 KOAX 100503 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the region overnight. Gusty winds and small hail will be the main concerns. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. - After several days of expected temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a cool down Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Expect ongoing showers and thunderstorms to continue overnight, moving to the northeast. Small hail and gusty wind are the main concerns as they move through the region. An upper trough moves into the region on Wednesday while a low over Saskatchewan moves east. An attendant cold front will be situated north/south over the Dakotas and into southern Nebraska. The cold front will move east through the day, not having a huge impact on high temperatures. Expect highs to reach into the low to mid-90s. A few showers/storms may develop in the afternoon/evening across the southeastern portion of Nebraska. Heading into the overnight hours, thunderstorms develop across southwestern Nebraska pushing to the east overnight. At the moment, the main concerns with storms will be large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out of western Iowa and extreme southeastern Nebraska. Heading into Thursday, cooler air filters into the region behind the front. Expect highs to top out in the 70s for areas north of the Hwy 92 and low to mid-80s for areas south of it. Any lingering thunderstorms are expected to exit the region from west to east through the morning. Surface high pressure sets in on Friday with temperatures returning to the mid to upper 80s for most areas. Dry conditions are expected through the day. Expect another chance for storms, a few of which may become strong to severe Saturday as another disturbance moves through the region.&& .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 KOFK: The latest models are showing a potential line of thunderstorms moving through the vicinity of the terminal, mainly between 03Z and 06Z. Through that time, strong wind gusts and maybe some hail is expected. Once that line moves through, a few isolated showers or storms will continue to be possible through around 12Z, with potentially a second line moving through closer to 09Z. Ceilings are expected to improve after 06Z with skies clearing out after sunrise. Southerly winds become westerly by 14Z. There will be some LLWS south of the terminal toward KLNK and KOMA, but KOFK is not currently expected to have that develop. KOMA: Expect a chance of showers/storms this evening, with the greatest potential between 03Z and 06Z. Models continue to show a potential line of storms which could develop strong wind gusts and some hail. Additional showers/storms may be possible between 09Z and 12Z; however, confidence is lower in potential impacts to the terminal as coverage will be more spotty in nature. LLWS is expected to develop overnight, with impacts between 09Z and 11Z. Additional impacts due to LLWS are anticipated south toward KLNK. KLNK: Expect a chance of a few showers/storms between 02Z and 05Z in the vicinity of the terminal. A few of these may become strong to severe if they are able to develop. There is still some uncertainty over whether these will materialize and impact KLNK. After 04Z, LLWS is expected to develop, impacting the terminal through around 13Z. A few spotty showers/storms may be possible around 12Z; however, coverage is expected to be limited, so this was omitted from prevailing conditions for now. South winds become southwesterly by 13Z and westerly after 17Z. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Showers and storms will exit the region within the next couple of hours, with VFR conditions prevailing for the majority of the period. Will increase out of the south, before becoming westerly Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through 06Z tomorrow, however another round of severe storms will likely move through between 06-12Z Thursday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...KG
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
735 FXUS63 KGID 100935 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 435 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much drier conditions and warm today on gusty westerly winds. Near- critical fire weather this afternoon over far W/NW zones where fuels are still marginally susceptible. - Scattered elevated supercells with primarily a large hail threat expected after sunset tonight. Greatest threat is for areas along and N of I-80, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place via latest SPC outlook. - Cool and comfortable on Thursday before temperatures warm back up for Friday and Saturday. Another cool down arrives on Sunday and persists into early next week. - Overall pattern doesn`t appear to be quite as active over the next week, but there are still occasional thunderstorm chances, most notably on Saturday. This looks to be our next opportunity for strong to severe storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Ongoing scattered showers/few weak storms driven by 45-55kt low level jet will gradually dissipate/weaken as the LLJ does. The rest of the day will be dry as a cold front (currently analyzed from the Sandhills to near Denver) moves through this morning and ushers in drier westerly flow for the afternoon. Still appears any surface based development along this front later today will remain SE of the forecast area. Despite the frontal passage, not going to be much in the way of cooler air thanks to deep westerly, downsloping low level flow, which will warm quite easily under the high June sun angle. Relative humidity values will fall below 20 percent along and W of Hwy 183, and with the gusty winds 25-30 MPH, would still not advise burning in places like Gosper and Dawson Counties and any nearby areas that haven`t seen much rain lately given the ongoing drought. Still expect another round of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after sunset, and mainly for areas of south central Nebraska. This activity will develop in response to mid level height falls atop strong convergence on the nose of intense 50kt+ LLJ. Area averaged forecast soundings from the 06Z HRRR along I-80 at 06Z show little to no CINH to parcels lifted from around 800-750mb, MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg, and 700-500mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with roughly 50kt of bulk shear to effective inflow parcels strongly suggests scattered elevated supercells with large to very large hail (1.5-2.0") being the primary threat with the initial (first 30-90 min) development. The very large hail threat may decrease after that as the intense forcing along with effective shear vectors that are largely parallel to the zone of max convergence should lead to upscale growth into one or more clusters. Activity will maintain a large hail threat until activity exits the area to the E/NE towards dawn...but more like 1.25-1.5". Areas that see this activity can expect a quick 0.5-1" of rainfall, perhaps locally higher. Showers may linger into Thursday morning, but most of the midday through afternoon hours will be dry, cooler, and with less humidity. Temperatures look to warm back into the mid 80s to lower 90s Friday and Saturday, and Saturday looks to be our next decent chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. E/SE portions of our area are highlighted in a 15% severe risk area on the latest SPC day 4 outlook. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Currently through tonight... Outside of a few showers/weak storms that work east across portions of south central Nebraska during the mid-late morning hours...been a pretty quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...set up between broader troughing over the western CONUS and high pressure over the Gulf Coast/SErn coasts. The day started out with quite a bit of low level stratus and some drizzle...and while it has taken its sweet time shifting north/diminishing, more of the area is seeing sun, helping temps climb. Took a while for those more breezy southerly winds to spread north across the forecast area, started the day with many locations having more light/variable winds...which were also at least briefly turned to the northwest this morning from outflow from the activity that pushed east across NE. Finally have those gusty southerly winds across the area, generally around 20-25 MPH. The stratus really did a number on temperatures, mainly across south central NE...and while there will be some late day recovery with more sun, much of that area will fall at least a bit short of expectations. The high dewpoints is still making for sticky conditions...with widespread readings in the low 70s. For the rest of this afternoon on into tonight...the main concern will be with thunderstorms working their way east across the area. Activity is already ongoing over the Central/Srn High Plains, sparked off by the arrival of an upper level shortwave disturbance embedded in that larger scale SWrly flow. With that area of 70s dewpoints nosing into much of the area, no shortage of instability...with the SPC Meso page showing MLCAPE values around 3000-4000j/kg in place CWA-wide here at mid-afternoon. Still some capping to overcome, but that should wane with time as that disturbance approaches from the SW. Models have remained consistent showing activity working its way into SWrn portions of the forecast area in the next few hours...pushing east through the early-mid evening hours. Basically the entire CWA is included in the Day 1 Enhanced Risk area...driven primarily by the threat for wind gusts near 70 MPH. Large hail up around golf ball size is also a possibility...and as this activity moves into better low level moisture further east, there is a threat for isolated tornadoes as well. Some of the hi-res models show activity from N-S through the CWA potentially being broken up a bit, with a more southern section closer to/south of HWY 6 into KS, then another more north of I- 80...we`ll see if it actually pans out that way. Wednesday and Wednesday night... Models currently showing most of/if not all activity being off to the east of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday...with the daytime hours currently forecast to be dry. In the upper levels, models are showing that larger scale troughing working its with further east with time further into the Rockies...with another embedded shortwave disturbance swinging into the Dakotas. This will help push a surface frontal boundary east through the forecast area...ushering in more northwesterly winds. This helps give that better low-level moisture a push east, with lower dewpoints in the 40s-50s currently forecast. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s...which results in some low relative humidities through the afternoon, with teens-20s forecast. With the recent rains across the area, have had a chance to further green up...so while some western areas flirt with near critical to critical RH/winds, not anticipating a fire headline at this time. During the late afternoon and early-mid evening hours...that frontal boundary provides focus for another round of thunderstorm development...but at this time that activity is expected to off to our ESE. Our main concern comes later in the evening and overnight...where models have been fairly consistent showing the potential for an arc of likely elevated hailers developing along the nose of a southerly low-level jet. Some models showing the jet potentially around 50kts, others are not quite as strong. Agreement isn`t too bad as far as location goes...mainly a south central NE issue west of HWY 183, and generally around or just north of I-80. The SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area has a small westward back into the area to account for this potential. Thursday on into early next week... As we get into the latter portion of the week and start of the new week...forecast does have a longer dry period for Thursday and Friday. Models showing generally zonal flow returning to the upper levels...but also show a lack of notable disturbances moving through. That changes as we get into the weekend-early next week, with periodic disturbances returning to the region. As far as temperatures go, have a little bit of a roller coaster forecast...with highs back in the mid 80s-90s by Saturday, dropping back into the low-mid 70s for Sun-Mon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The strongest storms of the night are now well out of the area with only a few lingering showers to weak thunderstorms possible to pass through the terminal sites before 11z. As showers are not expected to remain in the vicinity for a majority of the time, the mention of -TSRA is limited to a PROB30 group. No precipitation is expected to fall between 12-3z. The main aviation impact tonight will not be for ceilings or visibilities (VFR conditions forecast through the period) but rather LLWS. Up to 45-55kts of LLWS from the presence of a nocturnal low-level jet will be present through around 11z. Surface winds, starting out of the south tonight and blowing near 20kts, will gust as high as 25-30kts thorugh the rest of the night. Winds Wednesday morning will swivel to the northwest, sustaining near 15kts and gusting near 25kts during the day. Light and variable winds will become likely after 23z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Thies DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Stump
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