Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

365
FXUS63 KOAX 252319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and mostly quiet weather continues through Friday, with
  only a few light showers possible.

- Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected
  Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110
  degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next
  week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Objective analysis and water vapor imagery this afternoon reveal
generally zonal flow across much of the central Plains, with a
shortwave disturbance pushing toward the Ozark Plateau and a nearly
stationary front draped just south of the NE/KS border. Isolated to
widely scattered warm air advection driven showers will persist
across portions of the area today, with PoPs generally in the 15-30%
range. Limited instability (MUCAPE < 250 J/kg), should keep thunder
potential low. Rainfall amounts will also be light, with most
locations only peaking at a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
Persistent cloud cover will hold afternoon highs in the low to
mid 70s. A few showers may linger into early Friday morning
across southeast NE and southwest IA near the stalled boundary.

Calm and mild conditions continue Friday, with a few more breaks in
the clouds expected by afternoon. Highs should top out in the upper
70s to low 80s. A stray shower or storm may graze southeast NE and
southwest IA Friday evening into Friday night along a departing
surface low and frontal boundary. PoPs currently peak around 15%, as
the better moisture and forcing remain to our south.

Saturday and Beyond...

A pattern shift arrives this weekend into early next week as an
amplifying trough digs into the Intermountain West and Front Range,
forcing a strengthening ridge into the central Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley. As a result, temperatures will climb through the
weekend. Saturday highs are expected to rise into the 80s as a
warm front advances northward across the region. A few afternoon
and evening showers and storms may develop along the lifting
warm front, primarily across northeast NE and western IA, where
PoPs peak around 15-30%.

The brunt of the heat still looks to arrive Sunday and Monday as
strong moisture and warm air advection become focused into the
region. High temperatures both days are forecast to remain in the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Strong southerly low-level flow will
bring wind gusts of 25-35 mph while ushering in dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s. This combination of heat and humidity will pus
heat index values into the 100 to 110 degree range. Heat headlines
will likely be needed for portions of the area, though confidence
remains lower in the exact placement of 105 or 110 degree heat index
values.

By Monday, a strong mid-level jet streak is forecast to round the
base of the western trough and shift into the northern Plains. This
should act to damped the ridge somewhat and bring precipitation
chances back into the area. From Monday onward, nightly PoPs of 20-
40% remain in the forecast. Plenty of instability is expected to
build across the region during the period, though the strong to
severe storm potential will likely depend on the timing and
placement of shortwave disturbances rounding the trough and
providing sufficient forcing for ascent. Confidence in exact timing
and location of these features remain low at this range.

Most GEFS, EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members show a QPF signal somewhere
in or near the area each night. EPS- and GEFS-based machine learning
guidance also indicate a 5-15% probability of severe weather Monday
through Wednesday. Pattern recognition supports the potential for a
nocturnal MCS early next week as a strengthening low-level jet
transports rich moistures and elevated instability into the region
along the periphery of the ridge. However, confidence in timing and
placement remains low and will depend on subtle shortwave timing and
upstream convective initiation.

Temperatures only take a modest step down Tuesday through the
remainder of the work week, with highs generally in the low to mid
90s as mid- to upper-level high pressure remains centered over the
Mid-South. Dewpoints will continue to hold in the mid 60s to low
70s, keeping daily maximum heat index values in the 95-105 degree
range. Any organized overnight convection could locally temper the
heat through cloud cover and outflow, though the broader hot and
humid pattern may persist until stronger heights falls arrive.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. A few
showers continue to move across the region, but limited impacts
are anticipated. OFK may briefly see rain over the next few
hours before these dissipate. Little to no rain is expected at
OMA and LNK. Winds are light and out of the north and northeast
this evening into tonight. Cloud cover will begin to decrease
as winds become southeasterly and increase in speed by Friday
morning into Friday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

872
FXUS63 KGID 260023
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
723 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers (maybe a weak thunderstorm in KS?), along
  with low clouds and possibly light drizzle/light fog will
  reign over much our forecast area tonight into Friday morning.

- Friday brings one last day of seasonably-cool highs only in
  the 70s before Saturday serves as the "transition day" with
  highs mainly 80s.

- Upper level pattern shift will bring an abrupt arrival of
  summer heat/humidity Sunday and beyond with highs at least
  into low-mid 90s...likely serving as a "shock to our systems"
  in the wake of the ongoing/prolonged cooler stretch.

- Along with the heat, moisture surging northward will bring
  dewpoint values up well into the 60s to even low 70s
  (especially in our eastern counties). This combo of
  heat/humidity will drive heat index values to as high as
  100-105 especially Sunday/Monday...at least approaching
  official Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For the rest of the day and overnight, scattered off and on showers
with very isolated thunder will be present through the evening
hours, tapering off overnight and towards Friday morning. The
latest guidance, including high-res ensemble guidance keeps the
bulk of any additional rainfall to the south and east of the
area. There is a potential that Rooks county could be clipped by
some stronger activity that slides southeast out of western
Nebraska and Kansas and could bring additional water concerns
if that does occur, but confidence is not high on that solution.

The upper level pattern shifts Friday as an upper low digs into
the Pacific Northwest. This causes the Central Plains to be
under southwesterly upper level flow with a low developing in
the lee of the Rockies. This will cause moist southerly return
flow to the region. The tightening gradient will keep winds
breezy at times, stronger than we`ve seen for a few days.
Likewise, temperatures will be much warmer, with highs quickly
returning to the upper 80s and low 90s for Saturday and then 90s
will be widespread on Sunday and Monday.

Model solutions indicate that 70+ dewpoints will surge back
north. The highest dewpoint values will be across eastern
Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri, etc. That being said, this will
be quite a shock to the system after the cooler past week has
been. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are possible
especially along and east of Highway 81. Contrastingly, the
dryline will set up across western Kansas and the moisture
gradient will be visible where the drier air is able to mix out
and temps surge even higher...primarily western portions of
north central Kansas.

As June ends and July begins next week, temperatures look to
stay in the 90s while the trough persists out west with ridging
to the east of the Plains. Disturbances ejecting out of the
upper low in the west could cause a few sporadic precipitation
chances to impact the area next week, confidence in any details
is low.

There is an indication that the pattern will break down towards
the end of the work week and holiday weekend begins which could
allow for slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances over the
holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 722 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including precip potential and winds):
By far the main issue/challenge will be to what extent ceilings
(and possibly visibility to a lesser/briefer extent) drop below
VFR during the period. Confidence is fairly high that at least
10-12 hours of the period will feature at least MVFR ceiling
(possibly lower?) and also perhaps at least a few hours of MVFR
visibility in light fog/possibly even light drizzle. Aside from
any possible light drizzle, chances for any brief/steadier
showers overnight appear quite minimal...not high enough for TAF
inclusion. Wind-wise, no big concerns to speak of with sustained
speeds almost entirely at-or-below 11KT and any gusts mainly
under 17KT...as direction gradually shifts from east-
northeasterly tonight, to southeasterly Friday afternoon.

- Ceiling/visibility details:
As has been the case the last few days, especially the ceiling
forecast remains of lower confidence. However, unlike the last
few days, this TAF period likely features considerably greater
potential for several hours of sub-VFR ceiling (along with
perhaps at least a few hours of sub-VFR visibility). Right out
of the gate this evening, high-end MVFR clouds are flirting
with KEAR, but expect this to be brief/unsustained. Much higher
chances for MVFR arrive around 08-09Z...possibly also
accompanied by MVFR visibility in light fog/possible drizzle
especially at KEAR. Some guidance suggests that ceiling could
even drop to IFR/LIFR levels at least intermittently especially
09-16Z, but with "mixed signals" on ceiling dropping this low
have only "hinted" at IFR with scattered groups. Ceiling
category uncertainty actually lingers right on through Friday
afternoon, as although TAFs currently call for a return to VFR
around 20Z with lower clouds scattering out, some guidance holds
onto a high-end MVFR ceiling right on through 00Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion