Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

013
FXUS63 KOAX 130341
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1041 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming
  week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- Rain chances remain below 5% through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Tonight:

Satellite imagery this evening shows a void of activity over the
Central Plains, guarded by high surface pressure to the north of
convective activity across the southern tier of the CONUS while
a dominant mid/upper ridge continues to shuffle away any
shortwaves to the north of the area. Dewpoints have recovered
once again this evening with values pushing into the upper 60s
and low 70s, remaining higher than most guidance and once again
that patchy fog may be more likely than models forecast it to
be. With low temperature values forecast to dip into the mid
60s, there isn`t as much room to cool below the afternoon
crossover temperatures in addition to slightly windier
conditions compared to last night. As of now, the areas most
likely to see fog (mostly after 3 AM) would be valleys in
southwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska where dewpoint values
currently sit in the 70s.

Monday and Beyond:

The general forecast for the week remains on track for increasing
heat, driven by the aforementioned mid/upper ridge that will see
little to challenge it and incur a pattern change. An impressive low-
level thermal ridge is placed from the Intermountain West into the
High Plains and Dakotas, and is forecast to move more in line with
the forecast area through the week as the ridge remains broad
but decreases in amplitude. Highs around 90 degrees Monday
afternoon will see a daily 2-3 degree increase through Friday,
where highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and near 100 degrees hold
heading into the weekend. Of equal importance, temperature
relief will be hard to come by overnight, as lows Friday onward
struggle to reach 75 degrees for much of southeast Nebraska into
southwest Iowa, making it difficult for those outdoors or
without air conditioning. The combination of these two things
could lead to larger heat stress for the area, especially for
urban areas, and we`re increasing in confidence that we may
issue some sort of advisory for Friday/Saturday (30-40% chance).

Taking a look at precipitation chances, the continued strength of
the ridging pattern and lack of deeper southerly flow will
disappoint those looking for rain. We`ll have to rely on storms (or
remnants there of) that would initiate outside of the forecast and
drift into the area. Some of the global models indicate that we
could see northwestward-moving showers in the area as storms are
steered by the clockwise columnar flow late this week, but
chances for rain are better (15-25% chance) late this weekend
into early next week as a stronger shortwave drags a frontal
passage through the area. Other than that, the best bet for any
wetness at the surface will continue to be overnight/early
morning fog that will rely on cooling past the previous
afternoons` dewpoints and quiet winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
southeasterly winds in place across much of the area along with
a few areas of shallow clouds at FL045-050. Overnight, winds
will quiet down again but only slightly so, making widespread
fog development less likely than it has been over the last
couple of nights. As of now, the most likely areas of fog
appear to be across far southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and
into northwestern Missouri.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

355
FXUS63 KGID 122320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No rain or storms are currently expected today into next
  weekend.

- Hot all week with the highest heat index values to around 100
  degrees expected by the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

There was a little patchy fog again Sunday morning across
eastern zones, but less fog than Saturday morning. Can not rule
out another morning (Monday morning) of very thin patchy fog
mainly in rural areas near corn fields right around sunrise, but
less impactful than the last few mornings (10-20% chance of
fog).

There has been no noticeable change in the overall forecast
pattern as we continue to expect the impressive 500 mb upper
level ridge to around 600dm to dominate resulting in warming
temperatures with dry conditions. The upper level ridge is
beginning to establish itself over the northern plains today
and then will gradually sink south through the week. This
pattern will make it difficult to even see very many clouds
through the week ahead so expect sunny, hot, and dry weather all
week and probably even into at least a portion of next weekend.

Dewpoints are expected to be a bit lower than normal and thus
heat index values are not as bad as they could be, but do
steadily climb through the week with the heat index around 100
in some areas by Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast to stick around through the period.
Skies will remain mostly clear with the potential for fog lower
than the previous two nights. Though similar wind and sky
conditions may be favorable for at least some patchy areas of
fog overnight, relative humidity values will be expected to be
slightly less than the previous two night (mainly from slightly
warmer overnight temperatures). As result, the window for fog
will be shorter-lived and likely more isolated (best potential
east of the Tri-Cities).

Otherwise, the light winds out of the southeast blowing between
10-15kts should become light to calm overnight with directions
becoming more southerly. Wind speeds will be expected to pick up
some for the Monday afternoon hours with speeds blowing between
10-15kts and gusting as high as 20kts. Directions during the
daytime will return to a southeasterly orientation.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion