Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

237
FXUS63 KOAX 301048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of severe storms is expected across northeast
  Nebraska tonight. Damaging wind gusts (75+ mph) remain the
  primary hazards, with hail (up to 2") and a brief tornado possible.

- Dangerous heat continues across the region. Heat Advisories
  and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect as heat index
  values climb into the 95-105 range on Tuesday.

- Temperatures remain in the 90s through the end of the
  forecast. Daily chances for shower/thunderstorm activity are
  expected for at least a portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The forecast period begins with high pressure over the Southeastern
U.S. and up into the Ohio River Valley, and an upper low situated
over central Montana and the Wyoming Bighorns. The forecast area is
under southwest flow. For the rest of today, expect temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 90s. A few low 100s cannot be entirely ruled
out. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid-70s, making things
feel very unpleasant. Heat index values are expected to peak around
105-111 this afternoon for areas along and south of a line from
Columbus to Tekamah. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect today for much of our area.

A cold front is pushing east across Nebraska this afternoon. The
front has made it through Ainsworth, Thedford and McCook (temps=80s,
west-northwesterly winds). Expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the front this evening into tonight. MLCAPE values of
3500+ J/kg, DCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg, and steep lapse rates are
expected. There is potential for two rounds of storms tonight. The
first round would be this evening beginning after 6pm. There is
still some uncertainty of how this first wave will develop. Models
are coming into better agreement on the second wave of
precipitation, picking up on a line of thunderstorms developing
across the western portions of the CWA this evening between
03-05Z and lifting to the northeast. The HRRR has come in pretty
aggressive with a cluster of storms impacting northeastern
Nebraska, potentially with some strong winds associated with any
thunderstorms that develop. Hail and an isolated tornado may
also be possible.

Little reprieve is expected Monday night, lows will fall into the
upper 60s to mid-70s for areas along and north of Hwy 92. Areas
along and south of the I-80 corridor will fall into the mid 70s.
Tuesday highs will rise into the mid to upper 90s for most areas.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday with highs
ranging from the low to mid-90s. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday
evenings as a couple of disturbances move through the region.

Thursday through the end of the forecast period: The Great Plains
remain under southwest flow with a series of shortwave troughs
moving across the region. Expect widespread 90s each day with lows
in the 60s and 70s. Daily thunderstorm chances are expected across
at least a portion of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions through the day today. A frontal boundary
oriented across northeast Nebraska will remain nearly stationary
fairly close to KOFK leading to somewhat difficult to predict
wind direction at this site. Southeast of this boundary winds
will stay mainly out of the south or southeast at KOMA and KLNK.
Increasing high clouds this evening with potential for storms
mainly impacting KLNK and KOMA initially between around 02-06Z
(30-50% chance). After 06Z through around 12Z storm chances
shift north to KOFK in northeast Nebraska (40-60% chance). For
now leaving storms out of the TAFs due to too much uncertainty
in development, timing, and location of storms. Once storms
clear, expect VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-034-044-
     045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ052-
     053.
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

127
FXUS63 KGID 301124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather continues into the weekend with highs
  and heat index values in the upper 80s and 90s each day.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible each day mainly during the
  evening-overnight hours. A few storms this evening could be
  severe capable of producing wind gusts of 60-70mph and half
  dollar sized hail.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A few scattered storms continue to linger just north of the forecast
area, though these are expected to shift northeast out of the area
over the next couple of hours. South of the storms, skies are mostly
clear with temperatures in the 70s. Aloft the area remains under
southwesterly flow with troughing over the western U.S. and ridging
over the Great lakes. The ridge will be slightly further east than
on Sunday/Monday, pushing the hottest temperatures east of the area.
Still, hot and humid weather is expected today as highs climb into
the upper 80s to upper 90s with heat index values in the upper 80s
to 90s. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
eastern CO/western KS during the afternoon-evening hours. Plentiful
CAPE and sufficient shear would support these storms becoming strong-
severe as they form into clusters over time. These clusters of
storms would move into southwestern portions of the area during the
evening hours with the primary concern being wind gusts of 60-70mph.
How long storms maintain their strength (how far into the
evening/night) will likely depend on how storms cluster and organize
this afternoon-evening. Storms come to an end sometime tonight with
dry weather favored by sunrise Wednesday.

Another hot and humid day is expected on Wednesday with highs and
heat index values in the upper 80s and 90s once again. Breezy
southwest winds gusting 20-30mph are expected across central and
southeastern portions of the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible across the area during the evening-overnight hours. CAPE
and shear would support a few of these storms becoming strong-
marginally severe. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with hot
and humid weather expected through the weekend. Scattered
thunderstorm chances continue each day, primarily during the evening-
overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

An upper trough is over the western half of the country with an
upper low over Montana and another upper low over California. An
upper level ridge is over the extends from the Gulf Coast to the
Great Lakes. South central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas are under the transition zone between the upper trough and
upper ridge. A surface low is across the area with breezy south to
southwest winds. These conditions will result in temperatures
heating up into the 90s and low 100s this afternoon. Heat index
values today are expected to rise to around 105 to near 110 for many
areas east of Highway 281 due to higher dewpoint temperatures. This
area is in a Heat Advisory until 9 PM this evening.

All of this heat and moisture is expected to result in very high
CAPE values this afternoon (over 1,000 J/kg to over 5,000 J/kg). 0
to 6 km wind shear will also be fairly high (25 to 50 knots). Mid-
level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ degrees C/km this afternoon into this
evening. A weak cold front is expected to move into the area this
evening into tonight and will provide a focus and an additional
source of lift for thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms may
develop this evening into tonight based on the above mentioned
conditions. The hindering factor in storm development across the
area may be a strong enough CAP to overcome any atmospheric lift. If
storms overcome the CAP, they will likely become strong to severe.
The 14z HRRR shows storms beginning to develop across the area
between 8 and 9 PM this evening and continuing until around 2 AM.
The 12z NAM is not really showing any storm development across the
forecast area (it shows development across NE Nebraska). The main
hazards with any storm would be hail up to around half dollar size
and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. Low temperatures tonight are
expected to range from the low 60s to upper 70s.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. Showers and thunderstorms may develop
across portions of the area beginning Tuesday afternoon. Chances
will increase up to 50% Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.
Some of these storms may become strong to severe in the evening and
overnight hours with high CAPE values (mostly between 3,000 to
4,000+ J/kg), wind shear up to 50 knots across portions of the area,
and mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ degrees C/km. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats. Storms may develop along
the stalled cold front from the day before. Some models don`t show
any storms. Rain and storm chances increase up to around 50% Tuesday
evening and overnight. Low temperatures tomorrow night will
generally range from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Similar high temperatures will be present on Wednesday as on
Tuesday. Showers and storms will again be possible Wednesday
afternoon (up to 20% chance) and evening/overnight (up to near 60%
chance). A few of those storms may become strong to severe but the
parameters are not quite as high as the previous 2 days so not
expecting as widespread/intense severe weather. Winds will
strengthen out of the south on Thursday with temperatures warming up
into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. Temperatures will heat up even
more on Friday with highs in the 90s to low 100s. Temperatures have
the potential to heat up even more (mainly south of I-80) on
Saturday (4th of July) in advance of an approaching cold front. The
degree of heating is somewhat uncertain at this point but some
locations across north central Kansas could reach 105 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop (especially across northern
portions of the area along and north of I-80) Saturday evening and
overnight. These storms may become strong to severe given high CAPE,
wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. Cooler temperatures are
expected on Sunday with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely throughout most of TAF period. Low
confidence chance for sub-VFR conditions in thunderstorms this
evening-night. FEW-SCT mid-high level clouds are expected during
the day. During the evening hours, skies become BKN-OVC as
scattered thunderstorms move in from the west. There remains
uncertainty on the timing and strength of storms so a broad
PROB30 was used for general storm timing. It`s plausible storms
could result in MVFR conditions but given broader uncertainty
opted against an MVFR mention at this time.

LLWS is likely to develop during the late evening-overnight
hours, but will weaken/dissipate by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion