Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

269
FXUS63 KOAX 231752
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs reach the 50s today. Mid 60s to low 70s return for
  Tuesday with dry conditions.

- Very high fire danger returns to the area on Wednesday and Thursday
  as do warmer temperatures. Thursday will see gusty northerly
  winds of 30 to 35 mph. Next best chance (15-30%) for
  precipitation returns late Thursday into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Today through Tuesday...

A weak shortwave rippled through the upper levels across the Central
Plains today. By noon, radar returns could be seen in a broken line
across eastern Nebraska. The 18Z OAX sounding is in agreement with
the RAP and HRRR forecast soundings indicating a rather large
amount of dry air below these showers for raindrops to contend
with. Evaporation appears to be winning out for the most part,
as no notable precipitation has manged to reach the surface.
PoPs will remain around 10-15% this afternoon as this band
advances eastward, indicating a slight chance for a few
sprinkles to reach the ground.

By noon, most locations across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa
had warmed into the lower 40s. Mostly cloudy skies will help
maintain near-normal temperatures through the afternoon, as
highs today top out in the low 50s.

A ridge will begin to push into the southwestern CONUS Tuesday,
bringing warm southwesterly low level flow to the Plains.
Temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday...

A thermal ridge will advance eastward on Wednesday, bringing another
burst of well above normal temperatures to the region. Highs are
forecast to reach the low 80s over western Iowa and northeast
Nebraska, with the upper 80s and perhaps a few 90s possible near the
Nebraska/Kansas border. While winds will be fairly light, around 5-
10 mph with gusts up to 15-20 mph, well above normal temperatures
combined with minimum relative humidities dropping to 20-30%
will likely be enough to produce Very High Fire Danger
conditions, Wednesday.

Fire Danger concerns ramp up along with the winds on Thursday. A
midlevel trough and associated cold front will swing into the region
from the northwest early Thursday morning. This frontal passage may
limit highs to the 60s in northeast Nebraska but 70s-80s will be
possible across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Winds will
increase out of the northwest with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible.
Models remain fairly split on whether or not precip will accompany
the frontal passage, Thursday. Right now, we will maintain a
15-20% chance for rain during the day. If dry conditions do
continue to prevail, Very High to Extreme Fire Danger can be
expected.

Thursday Night and Beyond...

Rain/Snow chances increase Thursday night into Friday (15-30%), as
cooler air advances southward. Overall, limited moisture and
warm surface temperatures suggest little to no impacts can be
expected at this time.

Temperatures Friday may be limited to the upper 40s and low 50s,
however this cooldown will likely be short-lived. Upper level
ridging is expected to redevelop over the western CONUS this weekend
and shift eastward into early next week. Temperatures are forecast
to rebound into the 60s Saturday, and reach the 70s on Sunday, into
early next week. With dry conditions prevailing, this will
likely set the stage for additional Fire Danger concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
remain out of the south/southeast at around 10-12 kts with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible. A line of showers is
attempting to move into eastern Nebraska this afternoon, however
rain continues to struggle to reach the surface through a layer
of very dry air. Winds will eventually weaken around 06Z
tonight, dipping to 5-10 kts through early Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

626
FXUS63 KGID 231843
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
143 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire Weather remains the primary concern through the next
  week. See the Fire Weather section below.

- Record warmth is expected again on Wednesday.

- Thursday will be windy with a low chance for light rain/snow.
  Little to no impact is expected, and many areas will remain
  completely dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Southeast winds persist through the afternoon, gradually
diminishing this evening into tonight. There should be enough
breaks in cloud cover to allow temperatures to once again fall
to near freezing by Tuesday morning.

Winds become more southerly on Tuesday as upper-level ridging
builds over the western CONUS. This will allow solidly above-
normal temperatures to return to the area. Widespread highs in
the 70s are expected...which is 10-20 degrees above
climatological normals.

Wednesday trends even warmer as the upper level ridge moves
overhead and we see west-northwesterly surface winds. Based on
the NBM, there is a high chance (90%) that we will reach/exceed
record high temperatures at both Grand Island and Hastings. The
current records are 88 and 85 degrees, respectively.

A cold front moves through Thursday morning, ushering in
stronger north winds. Gusts 35 to 40 MPH are likely in most
areas, and there is a chance (20%) that some areas see gusts in
excess of 50 MPH. The timing of the front will also result in a
wide range (and uncertainty) of high temperatures across the
area. A shortwave may bring some light rain/snow to portions of
the area, mainly during the evening and overnight. That said,
the probably for any snow accumulation is less than 5%...and
many areas will remain completely dry.

Friday will remain on the cooler side, but above-normal
temperatures are favored to return over the weekend and into
early next week. Details remain very uncertain, but there are
early indications that we could transition to a more active
(wetter) pattern to start the month of April.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the period.
Southeast winds gust to around 25kts this afternoon. Winds
become more southerly for Tuesday.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Today:
Cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side, and
therefore humidity may only briefly dip to near 20% in western
areas. Nevertheless, southeast winds are expected to gust 25-35
MPH through late afternoon before slowly diminishing. As such,
the Red Flag Warning remains in place until 9pm.

Tuesday:
Tuesday will be warmer with minimum humidity in the 15-20% range
in western areas. South winds have trended upwards slightly, but
are still expected to decrease in western zones in the mid to
late afternoon. Near-critical conditions are still expected, but
there should be limited overlap of any critical conditions.

Wednesday:
Like Saturday, Wednesday will be very warm and dry, but winds
currently look to be more marginal than on Wednesday (sustained
10-20 MPH). It is possible that deep mixing could trend the
gusts higher, but this is more likely in areas further to the
west.

Thursday:
As mentioned above, Thursday will feature strong north to north-
northeasterly winds. These winds will lead to a heightened fire
weather concern, but falling temperatures may prevent humidity
from dipping to critical levels.

Friday:
Breezy north winds continue, and despite the cooler airmass,
humidity is likely to dip low enough to fuel at least a near-
critical fire weather threat for portions of the area.

Saturday/Sunday:
Warmer temperatures return, along with breezy south winds. Near
critical to critical conditions are likely for portions of the
area...especially on Saturday.

&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-072-
     073-082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion