69°F
Updated:
7/12/2026
11:52:33pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
013 FXUS63 KOAX 130341 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1041 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times. - Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week. - Rain chances remain below 5% through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Tonight: Satellite imagery this evening shows a void of activity over the Central Plains, guarded by high surface pressure to the north of convective activity across the southern tier of the CONUS while a dominant mid/upper ridge continues to shuffle away any shortwaves to the north of the area. Dewpoints have recovered once again this evening with values pushing into the upper 60s and low 70s, remaining higher than most guidance and once again that patchy fog may be more likely than models forecast it to be. With low temperature values forecast to dip into the mid 60s, there isn`t as much room to cool below the afternoon crossover temperatures in addition to slightly windier conditions compared to last night. As of now, the areas most likely to see fog (mostly after 3 AM) would be valleys in southwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska where dewpoint values currently sit in the 70s. Monday and Beyond: The general forecast for the week remains on track for increasing heat, driven by the aforementioned mid/upper ridge that will see little to challenge it and incur a pattern change. An impressive low- level thermal ridge is placed from the Intermountain West into the High Plains and Dakotas, and is forecast to move more in line with the forecast area through the week as the ridge remains broad but decreases in amplitude. Highs around 90 degrees Monday afternoon will see a daily 2-3 degree increase through Friday, where highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and near 100 degrees hold heading into the weekend. Of equal importance, temperature relief will be hard to come by overnight, as lows Friday onward struggle to reach 75 degrees for much of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa, making it difficult for those outdoors or without air conditioning. The combination of these two things could lead to larger heat stress for the area, especially for urban areas, and we`re increasing in confidence that we may issue some sort of advisory for Friday/Saturday (30-40% chance). Taking a look at precipitation chances, the continued strength of the ridging pattern and lack of deeper southerly flow will disappoint those looking for rain. We`ll have to rely on storms (or remnants there of) that would initiate outside of the forecast and drift into the area. Some of the global models indicate that we could see northwestward-moving showers in the area as storms are steered by the clockwise columnar flow late this week, but chances for rain are better (15-25% chance) late this weekend into early next week as a stronger shortwave drags a frontal passage through the area. Other than that, the best bet for any wetness at the surface will continue to be overnight/early morning fog that will rely on cooling past the previous afternoons` dewpoints and quiet winds. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with southeasterly winds in place across much of the area along with a few areas of shallow clouds at FL045-050. Overnight, winds will quiet down again but only slightly so, making widespread fog development less likely than it has been over the last couple of nights. As of now, the most likely areas of fog appear to be across far southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and into northwestern Missouri. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
355 FXUS63 KGID 122320 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 620 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - No rain or storms are currently expected today into next weekend. - Hot all week with the highest heat index values to around 100 degrees expected by the end of the week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 There was a little patchy fog again Sunday morning across eastern zones, but less fog than Saturday morning. Can not rule out another morning (Monday morning) of very thin patchy fog mainly in rural areas near corn fields right around sunrise, but less impactful than the last few mornings (10-20% chance of fog). There has been no noticeable change in the overall forecast pattern as we continue to expect the impressive 500 mb upper level ridge to around 600dm to dominate resulting in warming temperatures with dry conditions. The upper level ridge is beginning to establish itself over the northern plains today and then will gradually sink south through the week. This pattern will make it difficult to even see very many clouds through the week ahead so expect sunny, hot, and dry weather all week and probably even into at least a portion of next weekend. Dewpoints are expected to be a bit lower than normal and thus heat index values are not as bad as they could be, but do steadily climb through the week with the heat index around 100 in some areas by Friday into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are forecast to stick around through the period. Skies will remain mostly clear with the potential for fog lower than the previous two nights. Though similar wind and sky conditions may be favorable for at least some patchy areas of fog overnight, relative humidity values will be expected to be slightly less than the previous two night (mainly from slightly warmer overnight temperatures). As result, the window for fog will be shorter-lived and likely more isolated (best potential east of the Tri-Cities). Otherwise, the light winds out of the southeast blowing between 10-15kts should become light to calm overnight with directions becoming more southerly. Wind speeds will be expected to pick up some for the Monday afternoon hours with speeds blowing between 10-15kts and gusting as high as 20kts. Directions during the daytime will return to a southeasterly orientation. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Stump
Navigation
