Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

462
FXUS63 KOAX 201119
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
519 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog has overspread the area this morning. Expect
  gradually clearing behind a cold frontal passage by early
  afternoon.

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 30-80% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

- Cooler temperatures arrive by Thanksgiving and persist into
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Today...

Winds began to shift to the north overnight, as a cold front moved
in from the northeast. Radiational cooling enhanced by clear skies
ahead of the front allowed for the development of patchy fog
early last night. Another area of fog developed behind the
front. By 2 AM the front remained draped from Neligh, NE to
Yankton, SD. Visibilities ranged from a quarter to 5 miles with
temperatures in the 30s and low 40s.

Lower visibilities are expected to continue to spread southeast
with the passing front through the early morning hours. The
rising sun will struggle to erode fog this morning. Temperatures
will vary based on how much sunlight is allowed to reach the
surface through the decreasing cloud cover. Overall, highs will
generally top out in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Fog will likely redevelop tonight, as temperatures dip into the
mid 30s and low 40s. A low pressure system will move out of the
Four Corners region and into Central Kansas tonight, with
precipitation overspreading the southern Plains. A few showers
could sneak into southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa late
this evening and overnight, with rain chances continuing to
overspread the southern half of the forecast area on Friday.
Temperatures will remain cooler than the previous few days,
topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Beyond...

Rain chances will diminish Friday evening as the low shifts east and
subtle upper ridging builds in for the weekend. Temperatures will
rebound back into the upper 50s and low 60s on both Saturday and Sunday.

Another low will move out of the southwestern CONUS, and into the
Central Plains on Monday. This will bring another chance for showers
early next week, with the best chance once again across the southern
half of the forecast area on Monday.

A clipper system will drop southeast out of Canada by mid week
bringing noticeably cooler temperatures to the region just in
time for the Thanksgiving holiday. While the track of this
system remains uncertain at this time, if it drifts far enough
south as a few of the longer range models indicate, we could see
a couple snow flakes late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dense fog has overspread the region this morning with
visibilities dropping as low as 1/4 mile. A cold front currently
over northeast Nebraska will continue to drift southeast today
bringing winds around to the north, with visibilities gradually
improving after it`s passage. Expect IFR to LIFR visibilities
and ceilings improving by around 15Z this morning, from
northeast to southwest. However, it should be noted that
confidence in exact timing of improvement remains fairly low. Another
round of patchy dense fog may develop late tonight and into
Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034-043>045-051>053-066>068-090>093.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

184
FXUS63 KGID 201150
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog this morning, with dense fog possible around sunrise
  behind a frontal passage.

- Rain lifts north into the area during the late afternoon-
  evening hours and continues throughout the daytime hours on
  Friday.

- Rainfall accumulations range from 0.5-1" across the southern
  third of the area, 0.25-0.5" across central portions, and a
  Trace-few hundredths possible north of Highway 92.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 313 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread fog has developed across the forecast area this morning.
For the most part visibilities have remained around 2-5 miles, with
only localized or brief instances of dense fog. Cameras across the
area show that the fog is fairly shallow, and not supportive of
widespread dense fog. The biggest potential for dense fog this
morning is behind a weak front currently across northern Nebraska,
moving south into the area. A majority of HREF members show a band
of dense fog that moves south into the area with the frontal
passage. While northerly winds behind the front are less favorable
for fog development, moisture/dewpoints increase behind the front,
which would be supportive for more dense/thicker fog. If a band of
dense fog develops behind the front, an advisory will likely be
needed (mainly across south central Nebraska). Fog should gradually
clear by the late morning hours. Low stratus is also expected to
move in behind the front, which will help to limit daytime heating,
with highs in the 50s.

A shortwave trough and associated surface low lift into the Central
Plains this afternoon-evening. A band of stratiform rain slowly
lifts north during the PM hours, reaching the NE-KS border during
the evening hours, and reaching I-80 overnight. Little northward
movement is expected from the rain band on Friday, as it sits across
the southern half of the forecast area (along/south of Highway 6).
Rain gradually ends from west to east Friday afternoon-evening as
the low moves into the Mississippi Valley. This system looks to
bring a fairly widespread 0.5-1" of rainfall to north central
Kansas and our southernmost row of Nebraska counties. Rain
accumulations will likely have a sharp gradient/drop in rainfall
totals north of I-80, with areas north of Highway 92 unlikely
to see more than a Trace to few hundredths of rain. The Tri-
Cities and central Third of the forecast area will see around
0.25-0.5" of rain by Friday evening.

Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track this weekend into
early next week. Sunshine returns to the area this weekend, with
highs around 60, making for a very pleasant weekend weather-wise. A
low moves into the Plains on Monday, bringing another chance for
rain to the area, with the highest chances along and southeast of
the Tri-Cities. A cold front dives through the area Tuesday-
Wednesday bringing much cooler air to the area (highs in the 30s-low
40s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Fog was a little more widespread and thick across the area this
morning than previously anticipated. By late morning, most
locations were fog free and partly sunny skies (with lots of
high level cloud cover) returned to the region.

For tonight...expect another potential round of fog to develop
across the local area after midnight, as light winds along with
at least partial clearing are anticipated across the region.
While some models like the HRRR are indicating the fog will be
more widespread to start the day on Thursday, confidence is not
overly high as while the winds are light they also look to have
a westerly (downslope and less favorable) component. As a
result, included the potential for patchy dense fog both in the
forecast as well as in the HWO, but opted against a headline
this early as it may end up being more patchy than some models
suggest. Will need to play this by ear and see how things end up
developing this evening/early night to see if a dense fog
advisory once again becomes necessary.

Otherwise, after at least a bit of fog to start the day on
Thursday, the focus will turn to the upper level low currently
circulating near the eastern California/southern Nevada border.
While we have had our eyes on this system for several days,
models are now swinging this area of low pressure further north
towards the local area by Thursday evening as an upper level
trough moves across the Great Lakes Region. This means the main
band of precip should set up a bit further north, and areas
along and south of I-80 are now favored to see some measurable
rainfall. While there still will be a tight gradient in the band
of precip that develops, confidence is increasing that the tri-
cities could receive between 0.25-0.50" (about a 50% chance).
The good news is that this system is relatively warm, and any
precip locally should fall as rain through Friday afternoon.
With the clouds and rain, however, Friday will likely remain on
the cooler side, with some locations likely not climbing out of
the 40s.

After a cool/unsettled end to the week, a beautiful weekend
continues to appear on tap for the local area. Behind Fridays
exiting upper level low, ridging aloft is anticipated over the
weekend as the next upper level low across the desert southwest
slowly rounds the base of the longwave trough. As heights rise,
so should temperatures, with mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures expected both days. As a bonus, with a weak
pressure gradient under the upper level ridge, surface winds
should also be light, with afternoon breezes likely less than 10
MPH.

As with the first system Tomorrow night/Friday, the trajectory
of the subsequent upper level low early next week has trended
further north in both the operational runs of the GFS/EC.
Therefore, while official pops with this system are on the low
side (10-30%), they may ultimately be too low as the vast
majority of the EC ensemble members are indicating measurable
precipitation along with about 50% of the members of the GFS.
Again, given the origin of this system, the chance of any snow
early next week looks low. Beyond this system, however, the
upper level ridge breaks down, and much cooler air and an active
weather pattern in progressive northwest flow returns to the
area Thanksgiving eve and beyond. Still too early to predict the
first measurable snow, but things are looking more promising
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

LIFR-IFR stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR around
14z, along with IFR-LIFR Fog. There remains some uncertainty on
how dense fog will be, but from observations upstream show that at
least a couple of hours of 1SM Visibility is likely. Stratus
gradually raises during the afternoon becoming at least MVFR.
There is potential for enough clearing to reach VFR though
uncertainty remains on how much clearing there will be and when
a transition to VFR would be. MVFR-IFR ceilings build back into
the area around midnight, with chances for rain late in the TAF
period. IFR visibility will be possible with rain in addition to
the potential for patchy fog.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion