33°F
Updated:
2/4/2026
08:22:23am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
578 FXUS63 KOAX 041134 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 534 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle are expected this morning with the highest potential for slick roads near and north of Interstate 80. Snow totals are expected to remain under 0.5" with a glaze of ice. - Warmer temperatures arrive Thursday into next week, with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A few spots could hit the 60s Thursday, with more widespread 60s for Monday. - The prolonged stretch of warmer weather will likely lead to river ice breakup and increase the potential for ice jams. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 Early morning analysis showed the well-advertised shortwave trough moving through the area with light radar returns starting to edge into northeast NE as of 3 AM. Model soundings continue to indicate perhaps a brief period of snow as precip first starts, but we quickly lose saturation aloft and therefore, in- cloud ice, indicating a transition to freezing drizzle with the lowest 1-2 km remaining saturated. Upstream observations seem to support this with a few light snow reports and several other mist/fog/unknown precip reports with reduced visibility and even some ice accumulation. While various pieces of short term guidance differ significantly in their simulated reflectivity and QPF fields (HRRR/RAP have been the most aggressive), nearly all of them show the aforementioned low level saturation (some more consistent than others) with some decent lift, so they all seem to show at least potential for some patchy freezing drizzle. One thing to keep an eye on is that surface temperatures in some locations (e.g. Norfolk, Albion, Columbus, Neligh) have remained near or above freezing with the low level clouds keeping us a bit warmer. As a result, ice accumulation may remain confined to elevated and untreated surfaces in some locations, though they should cool off a few degrees as precip starts. Precip should continue to push southeast through the morning, largely remaining north of I-80 through 8 AM and then pushing south of the area by late morning/early afternoon. Some consideration was given to a Winter Weather Advisory, but given the aforementioned surface temperature, low level saturation questions (i.e. potential patchiness of the icing), and ice accumulations remaining around 0.01-0.02" elected to hold off for now. Regardless, there will likely be some slick spots out there this morning. Once precip does exit, temperatures should climb above freezing in most locations, with highs in the mid to upper 30s, though lingering clouds could keep a few places a little cooler. For Thursday, we`ll warm up significantly as upper level ridging over the western CONUS will start to edge eastward into the area with surface westerly to northwesterly downslope flow helping to get temperatures into the 50s for most and even a few lower 60s edging into far western portions of the area. A dry cold front will swing through Friday morning, though temperatures won`t fall too much, with Friday highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We`ll stay warm through the weekend into next week with daily highs in the 40s and 50s and Monday even trending toward more widespread 60s. These warmer temperatures will likely lead to river ice melting and breaking up, increasing our risk of ice jams. In addition, several of these days could be a little breezy, with gusts of 20-30 mph, so may need to keep an eye on potential for slightly increased fire danger if we stay dry, though no one day looks particularly concerning at this point, as RH values should stay above 30-40%. Guidance points toward the middle of next week as our next precip chances with the ridge flattening out and some more shortwaves sliding through. However, there remains lots of spread in guidance on timing and track of these systems so forecast confidence remains low, with consensus saying Wednesday currently has the highest chances (20-30%). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 Expect MVFR ceilings to linger into this afternoon with patchy freezing drizzle and light snow pushing through, occasionally bringing MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings. Still some questions on how persistent the precipitation will be at a given location. Guidance suggests it`ll be more on and off through the morning and accumulations will remain very light (under 1/2" inch of snow, glaze of ice). Precip should exit to the south by late morning/early afternoon with MVFR ceilings scattering out and mid-level clouds moving in this evening. Winds will remain northwesterly through the day, with gusts around 20 kts at times, mainly at OFK. They`ll lighten up and become more southwesterly to southerly this evening and overnight with some low level wind shear at OFK toward the end of the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
920 FXUS63 KGID 041126 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 526 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mix of snow/freezing drizzle moves south-southeast across the area this morning. Localized accumulations of a light glaze of ice and/or a dusting of snow are possible. - Well above normal temperatures arrive Thursday and continue into next week. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 60s. - Dry weather expected Thursday through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 251 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 Low stratus currently resides across the eastern half of the forecast area, with temperatures in the low 30s under stratus. To the west, under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have sunk into the 20s. Aloft, a trough is deepening over the Plains/Midwest with a lobe of energy embedded within the broader troughing diving towards the area. This will push a band of precipitation towards the area. Forecast soundings and surface temperatures near to below freezing favor a mix of snow and freezing drizzle, which will slide south- southeast across the area throughout the morning hours. Widespread accumulations do not appear likely, but localized areas could see a light glaze of ice and/or a dusting of snow which could result in slick spots on roads and surfaces. Snow/Freezing drizzle is expected to exit south/southeastern portions of the area by the early afternoon hours. Skies clear this afternoon, becoming mostly clear this evening. Highs today will range from the upper 30s in the east where stratus lingers the longest, to the upper 40s in the west. Otherwise the warm up through the rest of the forecast period remains on track, with highs soaring into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday. If highs on Thursday were to overperform the current forecast, Grand Island and Hastings could approach records (GRI/HSI forecast 61 degrees. GRI record 65, HSI record 66). Highs in the 50s and 60s continue through early next week. The next chance for precipitation will arrive mid-week next week though the details remain uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Today through Wednesday night... A broad upper trough covers the eastern 2/3rds of the country with an upper ridge over the West Coast. Northerly winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A surface high is centered over Minnesota and extends southward to Texas. The coldest temperatures across the area are generally along and east of Highway 81 with the warmest temperatures along and west of Highway 183. Areas of rain may impact western portions of the forecast area this afternoon into this evening. Another round of precipitation is expected to move in from the north Wednesday morning. The precipitation will likely mostly be in the form of snow early Wednesday morning then transition to freezing drizzle/freezing rain later in the morning as the dendritic grow zone becomes dry with a saturated layer between 0 and -10 degrees C. The precipitation is expected to end by early to mid Wednesday afternoon. Little to no snow accumulation is expected (less than 1 inch). Some light ice accumulation is possible (up to 0.01 inches). Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to around 50 degrees with northerly winds. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar to the previous night. Thursday through Monday... The upper trough will be further east on Thursday with the upper ridge over the Rocky Mountains. Northwesterly winds will be across the area on Thursday with temperatures expected to warm up into the 50s and 60s. The warm-up will continue into Thursday night with lows in the 30s. The upper ridge will begin to move into the Plains on Friday with a surface high extending from the northern Plains/Upper Midwest to Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Friday due to boundary placement, but expect highs to generally be in the 50s. The region will be on the backside of the surface high Friday night with temperatures cooling into the 20s across most of the area. Temperatures will warm up into the mid 50s to mid 60s on Saturday as winds will mostly be out of the south. Similar temperatures are expected on Sunday. A further warm up is expected on Monday as winds increase out of the southwest. High temperatures on Monday are expected to mostly be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR stratus moves into KGRI/KEAR over the next couple of hours, and is expected to persist into the afternoon. Precipitation is expected to remain outside of the forecast area but a brief -SN or -FZDZ is possible through the mid-late morning hours, but confidence is not high enough to include a Prob30 group. There remains some uncertainty how quickly stratus clears this afternoon, but have opted to lean to a slower clearing/transition to VFR. Partly cloudy high level clouds are expected through the overnight hours. Northwest winds increase to around 10-15kts this morning, and persisting through the afternoon. Winds become light and variable during the evening-overnight hours before shifting to the west-southwest late in the TAF period. Additionally, late in the TAF period LLWS is favored to develop due to stronger winds aloft. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Davis
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