Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

975
FXUS63 KOAX 231945
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely across northeast Nebraska
  during the evening (30-60%). There is a Marginal Risk for
  severe wind and hail (level 1 of 5).

- The next substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives early in
  the day Thursday. The highest chance for storms (40-70%)
  looks to occur across central and southern Nebraska.

- Very warm and humid conditions return this weekend with the
  Heat Index likely exceeding 100 degrees on Sunday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A closed 500MB low is centered just north of the South Dakota /
Canadian border this afternoon with a broad area of low
pressure and cold front extending southward across the Northern
Plains. Pronounced northwest flow extends across the northern
CONUS with the moisture axis extending from the eastern Dakotas
to south central Nebraska. The cold front will gradually move
from northwest to southeast across the forecast area this
evening through the overnight hours.

After morning showers and cloud cover, areas closer to the
surface boundary have recovered with 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE
values and enhanced cumulus across north central Nebraska and
across southern SD. Thunderstorms have already developed this
afternoon along/east of this front across parts of western MN.
We will be watching the convective trends farther to the
southwest of this initial convection. Convective allowing model
consensus favors initiation near the NE/SD border between
21-00z with generally weakly organized activity. Deep layer bulk
shear near 40kts coincident with expected CI late this
afternoon suggests isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. Instability will be a limiting factor across most of
the forecast area - including the Lincoln and Omaha metro areas
and western Iowa. Nonetheless, a band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will try to work through the area early tonight
with the frontal passage. Storm coverage is expected to be
scattered.

This flow pattern persists with a strengthening of the upper
jet by Wednesday and Thursday. The jet will become more zonal
by Thursday. An upper wave moves across the Rockies and High
Plains during this time with convection likely near and east of
the frontal boundary. There is still uncertainty where the
convection (likely MCS) will track during this time. The 12z
deterministic guidance is much more favorable for precip
placement in western and central Nebraska Wednesday night into
Thursday, and the prevailing mean flow would steer thunderstorms
into Kansas.


Temperatures stay mild with highs in the 70s to low 80s through
Friday. However, there is a pattern change for the weekend with
Pacific Northwest troughing and downstream ridging over the
Central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will likely move
across the area on Saturday, but the timing of its passage make
for a tricky temperature/heat index forecast. We lowered the
values for Saturday with this forecast update. By Sunday, 850MB
temperatures between 22-26C appear likely across the area. This
would set the stage for very warm and humid. We`re in range of a
Heat Advisory if the warm sector keeps this placement on Sunday
and Monday. It`s also important to note that we`re getting to
the time of year where evapotranspiration will play a more
important role in dewpoints and heat index values. As the west
coast trough slides E-NE, upper level diffluence and southwest
flow should set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms
over the High Plains, however, the timing and placement of these
features will need to be adjusted with time. At this point, the
best severe weather threat would be west of the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The showers that have been moving across central and northern
Nebraska this morning have largely dissipated. Very light
showers could still impact KLNK early this afternoon, but TS is
not expected and the forest is trending drier. A scattered
cumulus field has developed early this afternoon with cloud
bases generally between 2-4kft. Left MVFR ceilings out of the
TAF at this point, but we can`t completely rule out a broken
ceiling late this afternoon or early this evening - especially
at KOFK. Otherwise, a cold front will move through tonight and
could bring a band of scattered showers as well as winds that
gradually veer to the northwest after 06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...CLF

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

173
FXUS63 KGID 231756
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of the local
  area today. Some of these storms could become severe,
  especially across areas south and west of the Tri-Cities
  during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return to the area Wednesday
  evening through Thursday night. A few strong to severe storms
  over this period cannot be ruled out.

- Seasonably cool temperatures (70s/low 80s) through the end of
  the work week with upper 80s-mid 90s returning over the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A mainly quiet night across the local area with thunderstorms
starting to intensify west of the area early this morning.
Expect these showers and thunderstorms to work their way east
over the next few hours, impacting much of the forecast area
during the morning through afternoon hours. While there isn`t a
ton of instability to work with, most CAMS flare up this
convection during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours,
especially across western portions of the area. While the
morning convection could limit the instability further this
afternoon, good shear and some breaks in the cloud cover could
allow for some more organized/stronger storms, capable of
producing large hail and strong wind gusts. As a result,
continued with the potential for hail to the size of half
dollars and wind gusts to near 70 MPH possible primarily south
and west of the Tri-cities from the late morning through mid-
afternoon hours - although the entire area remains in at least a
marginal risk for severe weather today.

Convection should then mostly wane across the local area by the
early evening hours with a weak disturbance in westerly flow
possibly firing up additional convection late tonight just south
and west of the region. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated
for the daytime hours Wednesday before the next more notable
disturbance brings another widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms back to the local area Wednesday evening through
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently through this evening...

Overall been quiet across the forecast area through the mid-
afternoon hours, with satellite imagery showing partly-mostly
cloudy skies with quite a bit of low-mid level CU around. In
the upper levels...the area sits under west-northwesterly flow,
set up between broad high pressure spread across the southern
CONUS and a couple of areas of low pressure over central/eastern
portions of Canada. Seeing a few shortwave disturbances
embedded in the main flow...one working into the southeastern
CONUS, others over the High Plains and Nrn Rockies. At the
surface, winds across the forecast area are southeasterly, with
broad high pressure over eastern NE/KS northward into the MN
region...with low pressure/troughing along the High Plains.
Radar showing a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
working east toward northern portions of the forecast
area...but the main focus of storm development is further west,
along the sfc front and upper forcing. Models continue to show
this western activity working its way east the rest of this
afternoon and evening...but are in pretty good agreement showing
it not making enough eastward progress to have much impact on
our area between the loss of daytime heating and moving into an
area with less instability to work with.

Tonight into Tuesday...

Further into the overnight hours tonight and early Tuesday
morning, models showing one of the upper level lows mentioned
above moving further east...ending up near the MT/ND/Can border
by 12Z Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to develop along
the southward extending troughing with time...and have precip
chances ramping up after 06Z, and especially after 09Z tonight.
Unfortunately, even being this close to the event...there is
still plenty of uncertainties and lowered confidence in how
activity evolves as we get into the daytime hours on Tuesday.
There are still quite a few differences between models...some
showing more one main push through on the earlier side of
things, others linger at least scattered activity around most of
the day. Because of the uncertainty, forecast precipitation
chances are pretty broad...highest PoPs are currently during the
morning hours across northern areas, with more uncertainty
further in the day. Though there are some questions with the
timing of when things arrive/move through...most models have the
brunt of activity pushing south of the CWA by evening (some are
just quicker pushing it through than others). Not out of the
question that some storms could be strong to severe, even
through the first half of the day...that potential would
increase if it`s a slower progression or there are more breaks
in precip/clouds that can allow for better instability to
develop/work with. The further south you go, the better that
potential for more instability is...thus only far SWrn portions
of the CWA are included in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area...the
rest of the area is in the Marginal Risk area. 60 MPH
wind/quarter hail would be the main threats for the earlier
activity...but later in the afternoon, storms with gusts closer
to 70 MPH and larger hail would be possible.

Wednesday on through the weekend...

Looking at the mid-late work week time frame...models showing
little overall change in the upper level pattern. Flow across
the region looks to remain largely zonal/progressive...with
periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional thunderstorm
chances to the forecast area. Didn`t make any changes to the
NBM PoPs, which are focused mainly in the late Wed night-Thu
night time frame. As we get into the upcoming weekend...current
models showing a drier trend, a bit of a break from these upper
level disturbances, even with pattern turning more southwesterly
as a larger-scale low pressure system moves onto the West
Coast.

As far as temperatures go...confidence in how temps pan out for
Tuesday is on the lower side due to the precip potential during
the day, but most spots are forecast to reach the mid-70s. The
Wed-Fri time frame look to remain in the 70s for much of the
area...with highs climbing into the weekend. Mainly 80s are
forecast for Saturday, with Sunday in the upper 80s-mid 90s for
most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Potential for MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs
this afternoon through mid-AM Wed.

Rest of today: Showers have largely exited the area as of
midday, but can`t rule out a spotty light shower redeveloping through
mid-afternoon. There are some gusty SE winds on the backside of
the departing showers, but these should only last another 1-2
hours. CIGs are a bit tricky as some models develop a fairly
solid MVFR stratocu field by mid to late afternoon, whereas
other guidance keeps clouds more in the 5-10k ft layer. The
stratocu idea has some merit from a conceptual standpoint given
moist boundary layer and modest winds, so have prevailing MVFR
CIGs for the late afternoon. Confidence: medium.

Tonight: There`s considerable uncertainty regarding cloud cover
and visibility progs for tonight into Wed AM. On one
hand from a conceptual model standpoint...expected light and
variable winds combined with cool temps and high boundary layer
moisture would suggest a pretty decent setup for dense fog -
perhaps IFR to LIFR. Especially after midnight through around
13-14Z Wed. However, a majority of model guidance does not
develop much in the way of fog, seemingly because of
considerable mid to high cloud cover streaming into the area off
of thunderstorms in SW KS. If this is indeed the case, may just
end up with more of a low stratus deck than fog. Would put sub-
VFR probabilities at >50%, but confidence in if this would be
LIFR to IFR VSBYs vs IFR to MVFR stratus is very low attm.

Wednesday: Winds turning to the NW behind a weak cold front
should clear out enough of the low level moisture to provide a
return to VFR conditions by 14-15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion