Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

515
FXUS63 KOAX 041859
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
159 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible through
  early Wednesday, with the highest chances (50-70%), across
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa tonight.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening across
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with hail and wind the
  primary hazards, though higher chances will remain to our
  southeast.

- Frost will be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
  especially across northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed a cold front pushing south
through the area, moving through Omaha as of around 130 PM.
Satellite imagery showed a few cumulus clouds starting to puff
up along the boundary, with coverage expected to start
increasing as we go through the afternoon. Looking downstream,
there`s around 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place over far
southeast NE/southwest IA, so may eventually get some storms to
go up later this afternoon. However, with quite a bit of low
level dry air in place (surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s),
it seems like it`ll be awfully tough to get much in our area
compared to where there are 50s dewpoints near and south of
Kansas City. Still, if we do get something, there may be just
enough deep layer shear for an organized storm capable of hail
and strong winds, especially given the inverted-V soundings and
plenty of DCAPE.

Behind the front, guidance continues to indicate light on and
off showers tonight into Tuesday as an upper level trough sags
south and some shortwave energy pushes in from the west. The dry
air does remain in place, so again, it doesn`t look like it`ll
amount to much. Maybe a few hundredths of an inch for most and
perhaps up to a quarter inch near the NE/KS border before it
exits Tuesday night. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front
will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on
Tuesday and Wednesday and lows in the 30s to lower 40s Tuesday
night and Wednesday night. As a result, could see some frost
formation in parts of the area, with potential for another
freeze in northeast NE (freeze would likely be Tuesday night).

The split upper level flow pattern we`re currently under will
get closer to phasing up toward Wednesday as the cutoff low off
the CA coast pushes eastward and a wave swings south out of
Canada. As a result, there will be a shield of precip that
develops over CO, but guidance continues to suggest it will
slide by to our south through Thursday. However, we`ll remain
under northwesterly to zonal flow aloft with several bits of
shortwave energy sliding through at various times and giving us
on and off shower and storm chances. Still lots of spread in
timing and exact track, but last ensemble guidance favors
Saturday night into Sunday as our next best chance for precip
(30-50% chance). Temperature-wise, we`ll start to warm back up
Thursday, with mid 60s to lower 70s followed by widespread 70s
Friday and Saturday. Guidance favors a slight cooldown with the
precip on Sunday, but still mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with increasing
clouds around 7000-10000 ft agl and perhaps a few showers as a
front moves through the area. Can`t completely rule out a brief
dip to MVFR visibility with any heavier showers. Also, highest
chances for any thunderstorms should stay south of the TAF
sites, but still give it a 10-20% chance. Winds will be out of
the northwest to north, with gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon,
before speeds drop below 10 kts this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

033
FXUS63 KGID 041810
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High in the 70s and 80s today ahead of a cold front.

- Breezy winds gusting 20-30mph behind a cold front could result
  in briefly near-critical fire weather conditions this
  afternoon (along/south of I-80 in Nebraska).

- Scattered thunderstorms develop along/south of the NE-KS
  border this evening. Small hail and gusty winds can`t be
  ruled out with these storms.

- More widespread showers (30-70%) move into the area overnight, with
  off and on rain chances continuing through Wednesday. The
  best chances favor west/southwest portions of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Skies are partly cloudy this morning with temperatures currently
sitting in the 40s and 50s. Aloft the area is under northwesterly
flow, with an embedded shortwave trough moving into the Northern
Plains. Temperatures today will climb into the 70s and 80s ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough. As the trough deepens over
the northern Plains, it will push a cold front through the area
this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds arrive behind the cold
frontal passage, gusting 20-30mph. Limited moisture return
combined with warm temperatures results in afternoon relative
humidity values of 15-25% across central/southern portions of
the area. While humidity increases somewhat behind the front,
there still looks to be a couple hour window this afternoon
where near-critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly
for areas along and south of I-80 in Nebraska.

As the cold front reaches the Nebraska-kansas border this evening,
scattered thunderstorms are favored to develop along the front.
Limited instability (CAPE < 1000J/Kg) should keep storms from
becoming severe (best chances east/southeast), still a stronger
storm capable of producing small hail/gusty winds can`t be ruled
out. The strongest storms exit the area during the late evening
hours, with more widespread showers/storms moving into the area
overnight (30-70%).

Showers will largely exit the area by sunrise on Tuesday, with most
areas seeing a lull during the daytime hours. The exception to this
is across western portions of the area (along/West of Highway 183),
where periods of stratiform rain push into the area. Widespread
cloud coverage and cold air advection limits highs to the 50s. As
the upper level trough deepens on Tuesday-Wednesday, it will begin
to merge with a low over the southwest. This brings more
widespread/steady stratiform rain to mainly southwestern portions of
the area Tuesday night-Wednesday. Rain exits the area Wednesday
night as the trough begins to move into the Midwest.

Clearing skies and a cool airmass behind the departing system could
bring a chance for frost to the area Thursday morning. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track, with temperatures climbing back towards
normal by the end of the week as northwesterly flow builds over the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Can`t complain too much about conditions to end the
weekend...with overall light winds and partly cloudy skies.
Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing
northwesterly flow in place across the Central and Nrn
Plains...driven primarily by broad troughing over the eastern
CONUS. A weak ridge axis extends north from the Desert SW into
the Rockies, while a larger area of low pressure is inching
closer to the central CA coast. A weaker shortwave disturbance
sliding SE off to our NNE late last night into this morning
pushed a surface frontal boundary south into the forecast
area...reaching far southern fringes by around midday. This
front ushered in generally northeasterly winds...but with it not
being a strong front, has not brought a notable increase in
speeds or a change in temperatures. Highs will top out in the
70s-low 80s.

To varying degrees, some models still showing the potential for
isolated showers/storms developing over the NE/SD High Plains
later this afternoon...then sliding southeast with time through
the evening hours. Still lingering uncertainty whether any of
that activity maintains itself long enough to get into our
forecast area...but with some models showing that being
possible, have a small chance of precip in far NNW portions of
the area for a few hours mid-late evening. Otherwise the rest of
the overnight hours are expected to be dry. Winds overnight
expected to be on the light/variable side, turning more WSW
closer to dawn...as the area sits between the departing front
from today and the next which will be making its way through the
Dakotas overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...

The forecast for the first half of the new work week remains on
the more active/wet side. On Monday, the forecast for much of
the daytime hours remains dry...it`s not until late in the day
and into the evening-overnight hours that higher precip chances
spread across the area. Models remain in good agreement showing
upper level shortwave energy swinging through central
Canada...aiding in the eventual deepening of a more organized
upper low over Ontario by late evening-overnight Monday. This
system will push another surface cold front south through the
region...with the potential for showers and storms to develop
along it mid-late afternoon...so its progress/location is an
important detail. Still some lingering slight differences
between models with where the boundary is when activity
develops...ranging from closer to the NE/KS state line to a
touch further south and closer to I-70. Ahead of the front...not
much change with forecast highs, reaching well into the 70s and
lower 80s. Because of the short period between frontal
passages...the surface pattern never gets much of a chance to
bring more solidly southerly flow to the area and increased
moisture return. Forecast dewpoints through the afternoon remain
in the 30s- 40s...so models are keeping instability mainly less
than 1000 j/kg, with better values more focused over eastern KS
where dewpoints closer to/over 50 are expected. Can`t rule out
some storms being on the stronger side...but the better threat
for severe storms remains focused just off to our E-SE, where
the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remains.

For the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame...no notable changes with
models, and the forecast continues to have widespread
precipitation chances. The forecast remains situated on the
southern edge of larger, broader troughing driven by that
Canadian low creeping further east. The daytime hours on Tuesday
may end up being somewhat of a lull in activity...especially
the further north and east you go. Tuesday evening on into
Wednesday, models show another push of upper level shortwave
energy through the Plains...with recent runs generally focusing
the better chances for precip across roughly the SSW half of the
forecast area. Sitting north of the main sfc frontal
boundaries...models not showing much potential for
instability/thunder, so just plain rain showers is the primary
precip type. Expecting generally northerly winds during this
period, with plenty of cloud cover...and notably cooler temps,
with highs both Tue-Wed forecast to top out in the 50s.

Thursday on into next weekend...

Models are in decent agreement with the broad picture...showing
the upper level pattern continuing to be mainly northwesterly,
at times more zonal, through next weekend. This pattern looks
to bring periodic shortwave disturbances through the
Plains...especially as we get into the weekend period. Lot of
details to iron out over this week, don`t get too hung up on
specifics that far out. Following those Tue-Wed highs in the
50s, temps are expected to climb back into the 70s for Thu-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concerns through this TAF period lie with winds the rest of
today...then increasing chances for rain this evening on through
the end of the period. For the rest of this afternoon, expecting
mostly sunny skies to start, with increasing cloud cover with
time...and gusty northerly winds behind a passing cold front.
Gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible through the daytime hours.
Rain chances spread across the area this evening-tonight...but
due to the potential for it being scattered in nature, kept just
a VCSH mention in the prevailing groups with embedded PROB30
groups. Currently have conditions remaining VFR through the
period...but late tonight through the end of the period, cloud
bases may flirt with MVFR criteria.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion