Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

133
FXUS63 KOAX 252308
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 30-45% chance of precipitation is forecast for this
  afternoon into the evening for much of the forecast area. A
  rain snow mix is expected along a line from near Bloomfield to
  Bancroft to Harlan, IA. Snow is expected northeast of this
  line, with little to no accumulations.

- Highs warm to the 50s to low 60s Thursday with breezy
  conditions. The breezy winds will lead to very high fire
  danger in northeast Nebraska.

- Warm and dry Friday with highs in the mid 60s for most
  locations. A 50 to 60% chance for precipitation is forecast
  Sunday areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

18z RAP objective analysis depicts a longwave trof across much of
the eastern CONUS with northwest flow dominating the Northern
Plains. Temperatures have been slow to warm up across the forecast
area due to lingering mid to high based clouds. However, strong WAA
driven by an approaching baroclinic zone should help provide a boost
to temperatures today, with highs forecast to reach the mid to upper
50s near and south of Lincoln, while slightly cooler temps in the
low 40s are anticipated for the rest of the area. The extra lift
provided by the WAA in conjunction with an approaching H5 shortwave
trof has led to a few weak precip echoes seen on radar. However,
much of this is struggling to reach the ground per latest METARs and
road cams. The 18z KOAX raob reveals a rather deep dry layer from
just above H7 to near H9, helping evaporate any precip that tries to
fall.

As the wave approaches our area this afternoon and evening, should
see broad ascent result in some threat for precipitation. Latest CAM
guidance develops a broad area of showers across northeast Nebraska
after 20z which then overspreads the area by 00z. Forecast BUFKIT
soundings suggest temperatures remaining warm enough to support rain
across most of eastern Nebraska during the event, while areas along
a line from near Bloomfield to Bancroft to Harlan, IA may see a
rain/snow mix, and areas northeast of that line see snow. Most
locations should see little to no snow accumulation. Latest HREF
probabilities suggest at least a 10 to 30% chance of a tenth of an
inch or more of snowfall for our far north and northeast areas.
There is some uncertainty regarding how much moisture we`ll have to
work with though, as some soundings struggle to achieve deep
layer saturation, or achieve it very briefly.

Interestingly enough, our southwestern service area could experience
a few rumbles of thunder. Forecast soundings in those areas show a
few 100 to 150 J/kg of MUCAPE which aligns well with the SPC day 1
general thunder outlook. CAM guidance also tries to develop a few
convective looking features around those areas. So, don`t be
surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder in those areas.

PoPs at this time remain at 30 to 45% for most areas from 20z to
04z, while 50 to 60% PoPs are expected across our far southwest
areas from 00z to 02z. Lows tonight cool to the low to mid 20s.
Lingering moisture from rain/snow could lead to slick spots on area
roadways, so plan for some extra time to reach your destination. A
few areas of patchy fog could develop too early Thursday morning,
but considerable spread still exists amongst guidance so have left
mentions out of the forecast for now.

Thursday will see dry conditions prevail for the area as highs warm
to the 50s to low 60s over our far south. Winds will be breezy too
from the west northwest, particularly over northeast Nebraska owing
to the decent mixing. The dry conditions and winds will lead to
areas of very high rangeland fire danger. Winds subside by the
evening hours while lows reach the 30s for most locations.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As we head toward Friday, forecast highs reach the mid 60s for most
locations with dry conditions. Some spots near the Nebraska/Kansas
border area could reach the upper 60s. Once again, areas of very
high fire danger are forecast for northeast Nebraska and also along
the Nebraska/Kansas border area.


For the weekend, west/northwest flow dominates and allows a few
disturbances to track toward the area. The first disturbance on
Saturday appears to stay north of the area keeping us dry, while
Sunday a more potent shortwave traverses the area. Latest NBM PoPs
suggest a broad area of 50 to 60% areawide chances for snow.
Accumulations per 12z global ensemble members for 3 inches or more
of snow range from 30 to 40% per GEFS along and north of the I-80
corridor, while both the Canadian and Euro ensembles are more tamed
in their output with 10 to 20% chances for 3 inches or more of snow.
Regardless, will want to keep an eye on this disturbance given a 20
to 30% chance for minor travel impacts is expected. Temperatures
cool Saturday to the 40s for most areas, while upper 20s to low 30s
are forecast for Sunday.

A brief break in PoPs is expected late Sunday but is short lived as
more H5 disturbances track east within a more zonal flow Monday and
Tuesday. Highs Monday reach the mid to upper 30s while Tuesday sees
a brief warm up in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with mid/high-level cloudiness decreasing overnight. A
small area of light showers will pass between KOMA and KLNK over
the next hour or so, with the potential for a few sprinkles at
those locations. Otherwise, light east or southeast winds switch
to west or northwest Thursday with speeds increasing to 12-14
kt with higher gusts during the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

949
FXUS63 KGID 252344
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
544 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- In the immediate short term (through around 8-9 PM), an area
  of showers/embedded thunderstorms will sweep across much of
  our forecast area (CWA) from northwest to southeast. The
  strongest activity could produce strong-marginally severe wind
  gusts up to around 60 MPH (anything this strong would favor
  the southwest half of our CWA).

- Thursday-Friday are all but "guaranteed" dry and seasonably-
  warm, with highs mainly 60s (some 70s south Friday). Although
  not truly windy days, it will be breezy enough out of the
  west-northwest to promote elevated to near-critical fire
  weather conditions each afternoon.

- Saturday remains dry, but our next stronger cold front arrives
  on the scene, knocking high temps back down into the 40s-50s
  with breezy north-northeast winds.

- Sunday-Tuesday, the forecast turns more "murky"/uncertain, as
  while confidence is high that Sunday-Monday will be our
  coldest days with highs mainly 30s, there is also less-
  confident (but potentially increasing?) signs of one or more
  rounds of at least light wintry precipitation Sunday into
  Monday (mainly snow, but possibly also some wintry mix).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
 COMMENTS:

- In the immediate short-term (late this afternoon-evening),
  just in the last 8 hours we`ve gone from having no
  thunderstorms in our official forecast (although this was
  discussed as a possibility in this product over the last few
  days), to now not only including isolated thunderstorms but
  also having SPC assign an official Marginal Risk (level 1 of
  5) of severe to our far western counties (for the potential of
  strong/marginally-severe gusts up to around 60 MPH).

- Although still several days out and carrying the usual higher-end
  of forecast uncertainty, if anything latest models have
  trended more suggestive versus 48 hours ago (this forecaster`s
  last shift) that especially Sunday-Monday could feature at
  least minor/limited impacts from wintry precipitation, with
  the overall highest chances (PoPs) currently focused Sunday
  daytime. For now, we`ve intentionally kept any wintry
  precipitation type as snow, but mixed types (sleet/freezing
  rain) cannot be totally ruled out either. It`s certainly too
  early to hit the proverbial "panic button", but with Sunday
  now only 4 days out we decided that introducing this
  possibility to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) seemed
  warranted.

- As for fire weather concerns Thursday-Friday:
At least for now it appears we should "escape" any outright-
critical conditions that would necessitate Warning issuance.
That being said, the potential for 25+ MPH gusts has increased
for Thursday afternoon (mainly north of I-80), but fortunately
relative humidity (RH) is forecast to bottom out slightly above
our critical 20% threshold (this bears close watching though).
For Friday afternoon, RH is more likely to drop into critical
territory (15-20%), but thankfully wind speeds are currently
expected to decrease as RH falls in the afternoon. So long story
short: right now we are not forecasting the necessary overlap
of BOTH wind gusts 25+ MPH AND RH at/below 20% to meet outright-
critical parameters.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. March 4):
- TODAY`S/CURRENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
Today`s forecast has ended up being a little "trickier than
meets the eye", both in terms of thunderstorm potential, but
also wind/temperatures. In the big picture of the mid-upper
levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data
confirm that a fast-moving/low amplitude trough is diving
southeastward into/through our region. As was expected, this
disturbance is driving an area of scattered rain showers that is
just now starting to enter the far northern/western fringes of
our forecast area, along with isolated/embedded thunderstorms.

At the surface, the main story today is that high temperatures
will end up varying/ranging a bit more than expected across our
CWA as a whole. While southerly breezes have boosted temps
well into the upper 50s-mid 60s across roughly the southwestern
3/4ths of our CWA (even flirting with 70 in Rooks County KS), a
more stubborn/easterly wind direction along with greater cloud
cover is holding several of our far northern/northeast counties
down in the 40s (several degrees cooler than forecast).


- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING (through midnight):
By far the main story are the incoming showers/spotty embedded
thunderstorms. Between now and mainly 9-10 PM scattered to
localized more widespread activity will steadily track across
our CWA from west-northwest to east-southeast. While the vast
majority of this activity will be non-severe...and bring meager
but needed rainfall up to around 0.10" in some places...there is
JUST ENOUGH convective instability (as much as 100-200 J/kg) in
the presence of strong shear and steep low-mid level lapse rates
that any spotty thunderstorms could produce spotty wind gusts as
high as 50-60 MPH. While SPC officially confined their Marginal
Risk of spotty severe winds to our far western CWA, here locally
we feel this risk could extend farther east-
southeast...possibly even into our southeast zones. For what
it`s worth, there have already been several measured gusts of
50-60+ MPH just to our west over west-central/southwest NE
(along with recent reports of lightning-induced grass fires in
Lincoln County).

While the majority of showers/weak storms should exit our
east/southeast CWA by 7-9 PM...a few spotty showers could linger
as late as 10-11 PM.


- OVERNIGHT HOURS:
Once any rain vacates, it should be a pretty uneventful late
night as skies clear and light winds gradually turn more
westerly. That being said, at least patchy fog development
appears possible especially within counties east of Hwy 281
where the light winds would be last to take on more of a
westerly/downslope component. Have refrained from hitting fog
"too hard" at this time (it`s not in our Hazardous Weather
Outlook), but did introduce some very limited areal coverage of
patchy fog to our eastern counties in official forecast
products. Low temperatures were changed little...most areas
aimed upper 20s-low 30s (except mid 20s north).


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
This will be a dry, mild, sunny and somewhat-breezy day
(especially north). Compared to previous forecast, winds/gusts
were increased roughly 5 MPH (especially north). The overall
strongest west-northwesterly breezes sustained around 15
MPH/gusting 20-25 MPH will focus mainly north of I-80 during the
late morning through afternoon. High temps are still aimed low-
mid 60s across most of the CWA. As mentioned above, afternoon RH
is currently expected to remain JUST ABOVE critical fire weather
thresholds, but this bears watching. Thursday night, light-but-
steady southwesterly breezes develop, keeping low temps a bit
milder than tonight (mainly low-mid 30s).


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although much of the morning-early afternoon will be a bit
breezy (northwesterly gusts 20+ MPH), speeds should gradually
decrease through the mid-late afternoon as surface high pressure
noses in. As a result, this forecaster considers this to be the
nicest looking day of the next week (also the warmest), with
highs temps mainly mid-upper 60s (and some low 70s especially in
our KS zones). Low temps Fri night mainly upper 20s-low 30s.


- SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT:
This will be the proverbial "transition day". While likely dry
(at least until late Sat night), a fairly strong cold front will
pass through during the day, marked by breezy north-northeast
winds. High temps will likely occur earlier in the day than
usual, but are currently forecast to range from mid-upper 40s
north...to upper 50s-low 60s south.


- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
Far too early and too much inherent forecast uncertainty to go
into much detail, but the bottom line is that chances for wintry
precipitation re-enter the forecast. Although actual amounts of
snow and/or MAYBE freezing rain do not currently appear high,
both the ECMWF/GFS are increasingly suggestive that especially
Sunday daytime could feature some wintry precipitation, with
perhaps another round Monday daytime. Official precip chances
(PoPs) are likely far too broad-brushed through these periods at
this time, but have been raised to as high as 50% now for
Sunday. Certaintly a few days to keep an eye on. Of higher
confidence are colder temperatures, and highs for both days have
trended down with mainly low-mid 30s most areas Saturday, and
upper 30s-low 40s Monday.


- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Various low-confidence precipitation chances continue in our
official forecast (mainly 20-30% chances), as both ECMWF/GFS
suggest that another upper system will approach/enter the
Central Plains out of the Desert Southwest. With temperatures
expected to warm back up (highs mainly back into the 50s), there
is a higher likelihood that this should mainly fall as rain.
Obviously a lot of time yet to parse out finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this period actually comes right off the bat,
as scattered showers continue to make their way across the area.
Have a VCSH mention going for a couple hours, with a one hour
tempo group right away as the heavier rain is currently working
through. Also can`t rule out some gusty, variable direction
winds with these showers moving through. Once this activity
passes to the ESE, VFR and dry conditions are expected through
the remainder of this period, with little overall in the way of
cloud cover. Light/variable winds continue tonight, turning more
westerly in the pre-dawn hours, then northwesterly around midday
through the afternoon hours. The afternoon will also bring the
potential for wind gusts around 25-30 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion