Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

407
FXUS63 KOAX 141118
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
518 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 20% chance for rain/snow showers across our far west
  through 7 am. Otherwise dry today with gusty winds subsiding
  in the late afternoon. Highs reach the upper 20s to mid 30s.

- Brief warm up Thursday (40s to low 50s). Slight chance for
  rain across west central Iowa (15 to 20% chance). Gusty 30 to
  35 mph winds expected in the afternoon into the nighttime
  hours.

- 20 to 50% chance of snow in northeast Nebraska and west-
  central Iowa Friday. Strong northwest winds with gusts of 45
  to 50 mph will lead to poor visibilities and some travel
  impacts (20 to 50% chance) in areas that experience snow
  showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Gusty northwest winds are observed early this morning over eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. This is largely due to a tight pressure
gradient driven by a 998mb sfc low that`s well northeast of the
region. The strong cold air advection at H9 is also helping the 30
to 40 kt northerly winds at this level reach the sfc. Temperatures
were in the upper 30s to low 40s over our far south.

Temperatures will tumble this morning as a secondary sfc cold front
pushes though. This results in high temperatures of upper 20s to mid
30s for most locations today, although apparent temperatures will be
in the 20s given the gusty winds. Lingering FGEN at H8 and H9 may
help force some remnant rain/snow showers over our far western
areas through at least 6 or 7am (15-20% PoPs west of a line from
Norfolk to Lincoln).

Winds will remain gusty this morning from the northwest at 25 to 35
mph, but these should taper down from northwest to southeast after
18z as sfc high pressure moves into the area. So, only expecting a
few clouds this afternoon with sun. Lows tonight cool to the mid
teens to near 20F.

Thursday will see temperatures warm up to the 40s to low 50s over
our far west as H8 warm air advection takes place. A deepening H5
wave over northern Manitoba will eject southeast throughout the day
while sfc cyclogenesis ensues. A front emerging from the sfc low
tracks through our western areas by midday, switching winds to the
northwest. The H8 low will intensify while a strong jet wraps around
the backside of the low. The strong cold advection should help
steepen lapse rates and allow some momentum from the 30 to 40 kt jet
to mix down to the sfc. This should result in gusty 30 to 35 mph
winds primarily over northeast Nebraska in the afternoon, and across
much of the area by Thursday night.

Weak forcing is also observed along the front in tandem with a weak
shortwave ahead of the main Canadian wave. Hires model guidance
suggests a few scattered showers could develop along our far north
and eastern areas, but this will likely be hampered by low level dry
air seen in BUFKIT soundings. Have collaborated with northern and
eastern WFOs to bring low end 15 to 20% PoPs for mainly rain in west
central into far southwest Iowa. The front should help cool lows to
the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

By Friday morning, the potent Canadian wave will have entered much
of the Northern Plains. Model guidance still keeps the brunt of Q-
vector convergence and lift to our north and east as well as the
moisture transport. However, precip from the back side of the sfc
low will affect primarily northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa.
NBM currently suggests a 20 to 50% chance of snow in those areas for
Friday. LREF model guidance is still highlighting areas north and
east of a line from Norfolk to Blair to Atlantic, IA with a 60 to
90% chance for at least a tenth of an inch of snow, while 10 to 30%
probabilities are still observed for these same areas for a half
inch or more of snow. Another note to mention: forecast soundings
continue to indicate the potential for convective snow showers
areawide, likely due to the steepening lapse rates.

While snowfall amounts appear minimal at this time, winds will
become strong. By Friday morning, the H8 40 to 50 kt jet max will be
draped over much of the Dakotas into Nebraska and western Iowa.
Continued strong cold advection should help push some of this
momentum downward, resulting in widespread gusts of 40 to 45 mph. A
few locations in northeast Nebraska could even experience brief 50
mph wind gusts. Have held off on potential High Wind Watch/Wind
Advisory over our far northwest areas in coordination with western
and northern WFOs given some uncertainty seen amongst guidance on
how far east the strong winds will make it, but expect some sort of
watch/advisory soon. Ensemble guidance shows a 50 to 80% chance
of gusts greater than 45 west of a line from near Lincoln to
Wayne.

These strong wind gusts combined in areas that see snowfall will
result in very poor visibilities from blowing snow. The
probabilistic WSSI shows regions northwest of a line from
Columbus to Norfolk to near Hartington, NE having a 20 to 50%
chance of at least minor travel impacts. Those with travel plans
Friday should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
updates as travel could become difficult.

Could see a few snow showers linger Saturday morning but these
should taper off by the afternoon as sfc high pressure makes its way
into the area again. Another wave will approach the area Sunday that
could lead to some snow chance, but model guidance shows quite a bit
of spread amongst solutions. For now, NBM suggests dry conditions
with the bulk of the precip to our north. The dry conditions are
progged to continue for Monday into Tuesday with this forecast
update.

High temperatures Friday only warm to the 30s, with significantly
cooler air expected Saturday (highs in the teens to mid 20s).
Temperatures fluctuate for Sunday through Tuesday with most
locations seeing highs generally in the low to mid 30s although
cooler temps in the mid 20s are expected in our far northeast areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A low stratus deck is observed across much of eastern Nebraska
this morning. This deck has fluctuated between MVFR and VFR over
the last few hours. Have added TEMPO mentions of MVFR ceilings
at KOFK and KLNK through at least 13z and 14z at those
respective terminals, with improvement to VFR expected
thereafter. KOMA is on the edge of the cloud deck and should see
limited impacts of MVFR ceilings (

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

855
FXUS63 KGID 141129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
529 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few rain and snow showers continue this morning. Little to
  no snow accumulation is expected.

- There are several windy days ahead (especially Friday),
  leading to a heightened fire weather threat through the
  weekend.

- A High Wind Watch is in effect for northwestern portions of
  the area on Friday. These areas are most favored to see gusts
  over 60 MPH, but gusts of at least 50 MPH are expected for the
  entire area.

- Winds on Friday may be accompanied by light snow showers in
  some areas, possibly leading to localized visibility/travel
  issues.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Radar presentation is pretty lackluster as of 3am, but CAMs
continue to show rain and snow showers dipping southward
through central Nebraska and into northern Kansas. There is only
a low (10%) chance for minor, slushy accumulation (around 1/4
inch) in areas north of I-80. Travel impacts are not expected.

Northerly winds taper off this afternoon and evening, turning to
the southwest early Thursday morning. Temperatures climb into
the 50s on Thursday before another cold front sweeps across the
area, ushering in breezy northwest winds (gusts 25-35 MPH).

Even stronger winds arrive Friday as an upper trough forces a
secondary front through the area. Overall, there hasn`t been
much change in global ensembles compared to 24 hours ago. As
such a High Wind Watch was issued in areas that are most likely
(40-80% chance) to see gusts exceed 60 MPH. The rest of the area
(except for MAYBE the far southeast) is likely to see gusts of
at least 50 MPH.

In addition to the wind, this system may produce snow showers. Confidence
has increased that there will be at least some snow
showers...most favoring northern and eastern fringes of the
area. Widespread or heavy accumulation is not expected, but
some of these showers could lead to visibility reduction and a
light dusting of snow accumulation.

Friday night thorough Saturday night remain cold and breezy, and
wind chills could dip well below zero in some areas both nights.

Temperatures next week will be "up and down" but generally
warming through the middle of the week. Another cooldown (and
potentially some snow) is favored by the medium-range ensembles
late next week and into the following weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Lots of clouds spilled across the region today as a cold front
has been gradually pushing south across the area. This cloud
cover likely helped keep down wind gusts across the region
today as temperatures have struggled to climb out of the mid 50s
in most spots. Light returns on radar has thus far amounted to
no more than a few sprinkles in spots as cloud heights remain
elevated (5-12 KFT) and the lower layers of the atmosphere
remain fairly dry. That said, as we transition into the late
afternoon and evening hours, expect the atmosphere to begin to
saturate and for an uptick in light rain showers to be realized
across the area. Latest HRRR continues to indicate there could
be several rounds of light showers tracking south across mainly
south central Nebraska this evening and overnight, with a high
likelihood that many locations will receive at least a
trace...and up to a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation by
the time all is said and done Wednesday morning...including
some possible flurries to start the day for areas mainly north
of I-80.

While precipitation should end behind the cold front by late
Wednesday morning, clouds will linger and winds will be breezy
across the area through the afternoon hours, making for a
noticeable change in weather conditions tomorrow. This cool
down will be brief, however, as a transitory ridge of high
pressure is expected to track southeast across the local area
Thursday, and with breezy west northwesterly winds at the
surface, temperatures should have no trouble returning to the
50s and lower 60s across the area. As this ridge then rapidly
exits by Thursday afternoon, a strong cold front in the
longwave trough is expected to push across the area late
Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing with it very strong
winds. Latest models continue to indicate this will likely be
the most impactful feature of the period, with many ensemble
members of both the GFS and EC indicating that 60 MPH+ gusts
will be possible. Still have plenty of time to refine gusts in
future forecasts, but for the time being, introduced to
possibility of a few gusts 60 MPH+ into the HWO this afternoon.

While strong winds are expected with this front, any precip is
expected to remain outside the local forecast area, with dry
weather currently in the forecast from tomorrow afternoon
through at least the end of next week. In fact, once again
looking at ensembles, there are no significant signals for
precip over the next 10-14 days (although another windy day
looks possible Sunday afternoon), with temperatures generally
focused in a range (+/-5 degrees) closer to climatology starting
this weekend and then continuing for an extended period of
time. Extended EC is a bit cooler than GFS for the time being,
but either way, a cooler (yet seasonal) extended period of
weather appears to be in store for the local area starting
Friday, with more days near to below normal than above normal
through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Light rain and snow showers continue to move southward across
the area this morning, gradually ending from east to west. MVFR
ceilings will also scatter out from east to west, meaning the
GRI will likely return to VFR at least a few hours before EAR.

North-northwest winds continue today, with gusts in the 25-30kt
range at times. Winds then decrease and become light/variable
this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion