Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

902
FXUS63 KOAX 200258
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
958 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern
  Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, though a few strong to
  severe storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures settle in Sunday into early next week,
  with highs mainly in the 70s and periodic chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a longwave trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS this evening, with ridging
over the West Coast. A shortwave disturbance led to the broad
area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms that moved
through earlier. That is exiting to the southeast this evening.
Showers and cloud cover led to temperatures not warming quite
as much as expected today, with cooler temperatures expected
overnight tonight. A great night to crack your windows open and
get some fresh air. Winds become calm overnight with clearing
skies which could lead to some patchy fog developing. Guidance
suggests best potential for this is along a corridor from the
Platte River north to Cuming and Burt counties east into Monona,
Harrison, and Shelby counties in Iowa.

Saturday we see a more substantial upper-level wave moving into
the area. This will bring a decently strong surface low into
the Central Plains tracking from northwest Nebraska through
northwest Missouri. As this low deepens to our west, we see
increasing southerly flow lifting a warm front north out of
Kansas into southeast Nebraska.

With the disturbance arriving closer to 00-03Z Saturday night,
the more substantial rainfall is expected through the evening
and overnight hours, but CAM guidance has been trending upward
in coverage of showers and storms Saturday afternoon due to an
antecedent upper-level disturbance tapping into the moist,
unstable environment ahead of the main Low. Isentropic upglide
will lead to a modestly unstable elevated layer north of the
warm front with strong moisture advection and pooling along the
elevated warm-front. With only a modest amount of shear, we`re
not expecting much in the way of severe weather with these
afternoon storms north, but closer to the Kansas state line we
do get a little more unstable. If we can get any clearing at
all, low-level shear south is much better with 61kt of effective
bulk shear, and 0-3km SRH of around 300. Don`t think this will
be a significantly large hail event, but we could see some
quarters with stronger storms. Significant moisture in the
environment will make large hail difficult. Instead, heavy
rainfall and damaging winds will be the bigger threats from
these storms.

Meanwhile, during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday we`ll
see the beginnings of an MCS develop over northwest KS/southwest
Nebraska. The track of this system overnight will greatly depend
on where the thermal gradient sets up south of the extent of
storms over eastern Nebraska. If the latest HRRR runs are true,
this system will track more into northeast Kansas than southeast
Nebraska, keeping the wind threat south. The greater threat
overnight will be a second disturbance bringing another wave of
showers and storms into eastern Nebraska, leading to additional
heavy rain into Sunday morning, not clearing out until 8-10AM.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning we`re expecting a
significant amount of rainfall. HREF LPMM shows widespread
amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts, generally in
southeast Nebraska upwards of 8 inches in a few locations. For
this reason, we have a Flood Watch issued for Saturday night
into early Sunday across southeast Nebraska and far southwest
Iowa.

Rest of Sunday and Beyond...

Once this system clears Sunday morning, we see quasi-zonal flow
set up across the CONUS with ridging over northwest Mexico being
kept south by a trough moving out of western Canada. With the
polar jet more active and farther south than usual later in
June, it`s no surprise we`ll have a cooler air mass settle in
from Canada behind this Saturday system. Highs on Sunday again
will only be in the low-to-mid 70s. Through the week next week
we see the quasi-zonal flow transition as the ridge over NW
Mexico builds northward into the Four Corners region. This will
bring back more moderate northwesterly flow keeping temperature
more mild despite a gradual warming trend into midweek.
Shortwaves riding down the northwesterly flow out of western
Canada will bring additional periodic chances for showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers are clearing to the southeast, leaving behind broken
cigs around 9000-10,000 ft. These will gradually clear with
winds becoming light and variable overnight. Lingering moisture
may lead to some patchy fog development. Greatest potential
appears to be along the Platte River and north, with around a
40% chance of fog at both KOFK and KOMA from 10Z-14Z. Winds will
become predominantly out of the southeast Saturday morning with
high clouds increasing mid-morning. Showers and storms likely to
move in around 18-20Z and could hold over the TAF sites for
many hours with only short breaks through around 10Z Sunday.
Went with -shra through the end of the TAF period for now due
to uncertainty in coverage and duration of -tsra.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

349
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms from today through the
  weekend. Ongoing scattered thunderstorms will eventually
  subside later tonight. Another round is expected to develop
  Saturday morning and persist through the morning and early
  afternoon hours. Then another round Saturday evening as storms
  move in from the High Plains.

- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms bring a threat for flooding.
  A flood watch has been issued for much of the area east of
  Highway 183 Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Thunderstorms on Saturday evening and into the overnight hours
  will be strong to severe, SPC has an Enhanced risk for much of
  the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This is an active forecast, primarily within the first 2-3 days.
Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms were not well
forecast, with some models hinting at it early today. However,
as the day has evolved, models persist with this activity, but
even with radar as an initial condition, high-res models are
struggling with areal coverage. Confidence in the next 48 hours
has evolved throughout the day today, but there remains
uncertainty in how each round of convection will impact the
next.

Current expectations for the evolution of the next 48 hours.

Round 1:
Ongoing Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to
eventually diminish and move east southeast tapering a bit by
the evening hours for much of south central Nebraska. There is a
signal of some off and on scattered storms persisting in north
central Kansas into the evening and early overnight hours. The
best instability remains off to the west of the area. This
afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Later tonight,
some marginally severe storms could develop with hail to the
size of quarters.

Largely expect a lull in most of the activity during the
overnight hours.

Round 2:
This round is expected to begin just before sunrise on Saturday
morning along or near the Highway 183 corridor. High-res
Ensembles and even the EC Ensemble support this morning
development. This activity will have slightly more instability
to work with than Round 1 did. While widespread severe weather
is not expected, some of the storms could be strong to severe.
This activity will slowly move eastwards through out the day.

Expect a lull in activity after round 2 passes in the afternoon.

Round 3:
This round is expected to develop in the High Plains of Nebraska
and Kansas and track eastward aided by an upper disturbance.
This activity continues to have the best ingredients to work
with for the most part, and the primary concern for strong to
severe thunderstorms. That being said, this round also may be
impacted by the rounds before it, and that brings in some
uncertainty. Round 2 may limit some of the ability for the
atmosphere to recover along and north of I-80, and there has
been subtle shifts in the guidance that is trending the primary
severe threat along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas stateline.
With round 3, the primary threat is wind as a line of storms
develops to our west on the High Plains and tracks eastward into
the evening and overnight hours. Severe winds up to 70 mph are
possible. Hail up to golfball size is possible, but that best
threat is along and west of Highway 183.

This third round has a lot of upper level support, and while the
worst of the severe activity is along and south of the state
line, severe storms are possible throughout the whole area. In
addition to the strong storms, the repeated rounds of rain will
increase the chance for flooding. Round 3 doesn`t linger long,
but various models and ensembles, indicate the potential for 2-3
inches of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Have
joined neighbors and issued a Flood Watch. Did not initially
include Valley and Greeley Counties, but could see them being
added in the next update.

Sunday:
Additional Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, these could be
strong to severe as well, but have focused primarily on today
and Saturday for this forecast.


Workweek:
The remainder of the forecast is active as the Central Plains
sits under zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, allowing each
weak disturbance to impact the region. Temperatures generally in
the 70s for the week, which is below the 80+ degree normals we
usually see in the second half of June.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings possible mid morning Saturday-mid afternoon
Saturday in thunderstorms, though details on timing and strength
of storms is uncertain.

VFR conditions are favored through the early morning hours on
Saturday. Sometime during the early-mid morning hours, scattered
thunderstorms are favored to develop near KGRI/KEAR though the
location is uncertain. During the mid-late morning with more
widespread storms, MVFR conditions are possible within the
thunderstorm/stratus cluster. This cluster is currently favored
to move out of KGRI/KEAR by the late afternoon, though the
timing has a fair amount of uncertainty so kept PROB30 groups
fairly broad. A prevailing -TSRA group will likely be needed,
though confidence is too low to include at this time.
Additionally a few of the storms could briefly drop VIS to IFR
in heavier rain, though the details are too uncertain to include
at this time.

Light and variable winds are expected overnight, increasing
after sunrise and becoming sustained southeasterly. Gusts around
20kts are possible throughout the afternoon-early evening at
KGRI/KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion