Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

839
FXUS63 KOAX 131108
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm Friday with the potential for record-
  breaking temperatures.

- Very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska Friday afternoon.

- 40-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance of accumulating snow
  in the northern reaches of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Today and Friday:

Mid-level heights will build over central North America today
ahead of an intensifying trough, which will move into central
Canada and the north-central U.S. Friday into Friday night. At
the surface, a ridge is shifting away from the region to the
east early this morning with a deepening lee trough over the
High Plains. Light winds associated with the departing ridge may
allow for some patchy fog development prior to daybreak along
and east of the MO River. Otherwise, a fair amount of high-level
cloudiness is expected to linger this morning, before decreasing
by afternoon. We`ll see warmer temperatures today (compared to
Wednesday) with highs in the 60s to around 70.

A more moist boundary layer currently located across the Ozark
Plateau into ArkLaTex will be advected into portions of southeast
NE and southwest IA this afternoon into tonight with dewpoints
increasing well into 40s. That moisture increase will combine
with decreasing surface winds to support of fog development in
those areas late tonight into Friday morning.

On Friday, surface winds will switch to more of a southwesterly
direction in response to a vigorous low pressure system moving
through central Canada. As a result, a drier and warmer low-
level air mass will overspread the region with temperatures
warming into the 70s at most locations. There is a good chance
that the record high temperature at Norfolk (72/2001) will be
broken with the records at Lincoln (75/1990) and Omaha (76/1964)
also being challenged. The dry and warm conditions will also
contribute to very high fire danger Friday afternoon in
northeast NE, mainly west of a line from Norfolk to Hartington.


This Weekend:

The mid-level trough mentioned in the previous section will
continue into eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with northwest
flow developing across the northern and central Plains. A
surface cold front associated with the Canadian system will move
through our area Saturday morning with no precipitation
expected. Highs on Saturday will be cooler than those on
Friday, but still above normal with readings in the 60s.

Surface high pressure will build into the mid-MO Valley
Saturday night into Sunday with highs on Sunday into the mid 50s
to low 60s.


Monday through Wednesday:

The primary feature of interest this period is a short-wave
trough, which is forecast to move from the Rockies into the
central Plains Monday. That system will bring increasing
precipitation chances (40-50% PoPs) to the region at that time.
Model differences continue in the track and intensity of that
mid-level system and the associated surface low. The 00z GEFS
maintains a more southern track compared to the EPS/EPS-AIFS
and CMCE, which results in comparatively more members (GEFS)
showing minor snow accumulations in northeast NE. This forecast
update will continue to indicate mainly rain with areas of a
rain-snow mix in northeast NE Monday morning and Monday evening
when temperatures will be cooler.

The models depict the next storm system potentially moving into
the Great Plains Wednesday or Wednesday night, which would
bring another chance of precipitation to the region.

Highs on Monday will be a function of the storm track with
readings in the 50s currently indicated. Slightly cooler
temperatures are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period
with decreasing high-level clouds (FL200-250) today. During the
last 6 hours of the forecast, there is a consistent model signal
for fog development across portions of southeast NE and southwest
IA with KOMA the most likely terminal location to be affected.
Otherwise, south winds are expected to strengthen to 11-14 kt by
16z before diminishing to less than 12 kt by 14/00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

348
FXUS63 KGID 131140
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
540 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, with record
  high temperatures looking like a sure bet for Friday
  afternoon.

- Precipitation chances return on Monday with a small chance for
  a rain/snow mix Monday morning north of I-80, but no
  accumulation is expected and overall precipitation amounts
  look light (0.10" to 0.25")

- Seasonably cool weather with additional small precip chances
  next week as a more active weather pattern returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Another quiet night across the local area with all signs
pointing to another mild day across the local area. A few more
clouds can be seen on satellite this morning, which so far have
helped overnight temps remain mostly in the 40s, although there
remains a few more hours for temps to drop into the upper 30s by
daybreak. With the average low for November 13th right around
30, this will be yet another very mild start to the day.

With high pressure in control of the weather pattern aloft and
light surface winds thanks to a weak pressure gradient, upped
afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees for the next 2
afternoons as we have been overachieving on high temperatures
the last 2 days - something that is probably welcome to most
for mid-November! With the updated changes, Fridays temperature
records look like a sure bet, with 80 degrees definitely
possible in spots (currently we have 81 in the forecast for
Grand Island and 78 for Hastings - both of which would easily
surpass the prior records of 71 (2001,1990) and 74 (1990),
respectively).

The next cold front is then expected to cross the area on
Saturday, with the backside of the front not expected to reach
the KS/NE state line until evening. As a result, while Saturday
will be a bit cooler (60s to near 70), it will still be a decent
day with the truly cooler weather not reaching the area until
Sunday and eventually Monday. At the same time, an upper level
low across the southwest will eventually lift into the plains on
Monday bring a return to at least the chance for some unsettled
weather Monday. As mentioned the past few days, rain will be
most favored with this system, although a handful of GFS
ensemble members are now pointing to a chance for snow. This is
likely a result of that upper low tracking a bit further south
in the GFS than the EC, and as a consequence, the blended model
forecast now has a mix of rain/snow for areas north of I-80
Monday morning. While this is not out of the realm of
possibility, think the probability is low, and definitely no
accumulating snow is anticipated as low temperatures are
marginal for snow (mid 30s) and any flakes should rapidly
switch to all rain early in the day.

While this first system should be a quick passing one, it will
open the door to a more active and cooler weather pattern that
will bring additional chances for precip mid-week and again the
following weekend, with slightly below normal temperatures
(afternoon highs in the 40s) likely prevailing for a prolonged
period of time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some
passing high clouds and winds generally less than 10 KTs
throughout.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion