Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

509
FXUS63 KOAX 150500
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for
  Monday, with spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two possible
  after 10 PM.

- Our next notable chance for any thunderstorms appears to be
  on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western
  Iowa.

- Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire
  danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this evening despite a shortwave
trough spinning through along the NE/SD border. It was leading
to some sprinkles/light rain in north-central into northeast NE
and these should continue across the forecast area. That said,
with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s and many model soundings
showing a fair amount of dry air just above the surface, not
expecting much to reach the ground. We`ll stay under
northwesterly flow aloft on Monday with westerly surface flow
helping to warm us up a bit compared to today. Expect highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will push into and
through the area Monday evening into early Tuesday with guidance
in good agreement that we`ll have at least spotty showers and
perhaps a few storms ahead of it. Instability looks pretty
limited, so they shouldn`t be too impactful. Surface high
pressure behind the front should lead to a quiet day once the
front pushes southeast, likely by 7-8 AM.

Wednesday remains the day with potential impactful weather as a
trough continues to deepen over the central CONUS and an upper
level jet starts to nose into the area. At the surface, an area
of low pressure will push east across the Dakotas/NE with
southerly flow ahead of it ushering in warm, moist air to the
forecast area. However, latest guidance suggests a cold front
and dry air will quickly push through the area during the day,
limiting warm sector severe weather potential in our area to
extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. In fact, most guidance
favors storm development staying to our southeast completely.
Still, ingredients will be there for all severe weather hazards,
so if progression of the system slows at all, our severe
weather threat will ramp up quite a bit. In addition, the
aforementioned dry air combined with gusty northwest winds
behind the front will lead to some fire weather concerns in
northeast NE, where they have missed out on much of the recent
rainfall. EPS mean wind gusts are around 40 mph while RH is
progged to dip into the lower 20s. Otherwise, prior to the
front`s arrival, temperatures look to top out in the upper 80s
to mid 90s, but of course this will depend on exact timing of
the system passing through.

Thursday will be cooler behind the front, as we top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Some guidance hints that northeast
NE/west-central IA could be clipped by some weak shortwave
energy/light rain, but amounts would likely be very limited, if
it happens at all. Southerly flow returns Friday and should warm
us back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. We`ll also see
periodic shower and storm chances into the weekend as a surface
low spins up over eastern CO and moisture transport points into
the area, while shortwave energy also slides through. However,
still lots of details to be worked out in this timeframe with
quite a bit of spread in guidance on timing and track of various
features.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the
terminals. Expect a few clouds moving into the region late
Monday morning. Light winds become westerly by 12-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

613
FXUS63 KGID 150542
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions are favored through the upcoming work
  week.

- Near to above-normal temperatures return by midweek.

- Better chances for thunderstorms return to the area Saturday
  night into next Sunday (MAYBE our next severe storm risk too?)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

There will be a few opportunities for sprinkles or light rain
showers this week, but widespread or "meaningful" rain is not
expected. The 12Z global ensembles show a 60-90% chance for less
than 0.10" of total rainfall through Friday.

The first opportunity for sprinkles will be tonight into Monday
morning, followed by another opportunity for spotty showers and
weak t-storms Monday night.

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek (90s to low 100s
on Wed). That said, humidity remains quite low through
Wednesday, so heat index values should remain below 100 degrees
for the entire area. A shortwave will move through the region
on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain/t-storms should remain
to our east. This shortwave will bump temperatures down a bit
for Thursday, but near to above- normal temperatures return for
the weekend.

Ensembles continue to advertise reasonably high chances for
rain/t-storms returning next weekend (June 20-21st) as a
shortwave moves through the central/northern Plains. Of course,
details remain pretty uncertain at this time range, this could
feature at least some severe weather. The 00Z CSU-MLP severe
probs have a 5% contour across much of the region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at both
airports. A shortwave slipping by now may drag a FEW-SCT
mid-clouds across the area early in the forecast but skies will
be clear by sunrise. Winds will remain light and more variable
through mid-morning as surface high pressure slides across the
area. Winds steady out from a westerly direction and may be
occasionally gusty to 18KTS through the afternoon hours before
dropping off again as evening approaches. High clouds will
thicken from the northwest late in the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion