Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

937
FXUS63 KOAX 201744
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area until 10
  PM. Expect afternoon heat index values of 105 to 110 with
  overnight heat indices remaining in the 70s.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon
  and evening (20-40% chance). Damaging winds will be the
  primary threat.

- Cooler weather returns by the middle of the week, with high
  temperatures falling back into the 80s and even some 70s
  Thursday. There will be increasing chances for showers and
  storms Wednesday through Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Today and Tonight...

Excessively hot temperatures simmered over the forecast area this
afternoon as a high pressure system dominated the western half of
the CONUS. By noon, temperatures had reached the low 90s with
dewpoints spanning the 70s. Heat indices ranged from 99 to 105.

But relief is in sight! Surface analysis indicates a cold front
currently draped from north central Nebraska to southern Minnesota,
associated with a midlevel low moving into the Great Lakes, will
move southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this
afternoon and evening. Instability will pool ahead of the boundary,
setting the stage for deep moist convective updrafts to develop.
However sustained strong storms may be limited by strongest shear
vectors lingering just behind the front. While storms likely won`t
survive long enough to produce large hail, they could fall down in a
hurry, creating the potential for strong, damaging wind gusts. This
can be verified by noting the 1400-1600 J/kg of DCAPE building over
northeast Nebraska.

In addition to thunderstorms, northerly winds behind the front could
bring down some near-surface smoke from Canadian wild fires. While
it`s not expected to be nearly as impactful as it was near the Great
Lakes recently, it may be noticeable, especially across the northern
half of the CWA.

CAMs hint at another line of elevated showers and storms developing
behind the surface front late tonight and into early Tuesday
morning, as the LLJ ramps up. However these storms are even less
likely to become strong or severe, as the front scours out remaining
instability with it`s passage.

Tuesday through Friday...

Storm coverage will gradually dissipate through the morning,
Tuesday, as the line moves south. Temperatures will finally take it
down a notch, behind the passing front Tuesday afternoon. Highs are
expected to be within a few degrees of "normal", reaching the
mid and upper 80s by the afternoon.

A much more noticeable change in temperatures arrives Wednesday and
continues through Friday. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s
and lower 80s Wednesday and Friday, with a few locations only
topping out in the mid to upper 70s Thursday!

A pair of quick-hitting shortwaves will aide in the push of cooler
air Tuesday night/Wednesday and Thursday/Friday morning. Not only
will these bring cooler temperatures, but also some much needed
wetting rains with showers and thunderstorms. WPC highlights
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa with a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall Thursday, where deep moisture and training storms
may be possible.

Saturday and Beyond...

Unfortunately, longer range models continue to hint at the potential
for the ridge to rebound this weekend and into next week, bringing a
resurgence of heat. A few shortwaves rippling around the ridge could
bring some mild relief with cloud cover and low precip chances. But
overall, CPC outlooks maintain above normal temperatures are likely
to stick around through at least early August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. A cold front will move through this afternoon and
evening, bringing southwesterly winds around to the north. A few
showers and storms are expected to develop near the front. Some
could be strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds.
The best chance for storms near KOFK will be between 21-00Z, and
near KOMA between 00-06Z. Chances are low (10-20%) that these storms
will make it to KLNK. Another round of non-severe storms could
develop around all 3 sites between 08-12Z Tuesday morning.
However, uncertainty remains as to where exactly storms will
develop and if they will actually impact any of the TAF sites.
The frontal passage could also blow some wildfire smoke into the
region this evening and Tuesday, temporarily reducing
visibilities to as low as 6SM at times.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

275
FXUS63 KGID 201743
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to 103
  degrees with around 60-80% of the area hitting the triple
  digits today.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10AM to 10PM as Heat
  Index values climb to as high as 105-110 degrees.

- A cold front arriving to central Nebraska this afternoon may
  stir up a few non-severe storms between mainly 3-8PM. Much of
  the area should remain dry with only a few storms possible to
  develop north of I-80 (10-30% chances).

- Though a few isolated/scattered storms may redevelop across
  the area again Tuesday (10-20% chances), more widespread and
  greater storm probabilities will come later in the week:
  30-70% Wednesday and 40-80% Thursday.

- Temperatures after today will dip back to the upper 70s to low
  90s for the period Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026


The warmest day of the week and likely the warmest day so far of the
year for many locations will be expected today. Highs are forecast
to reach the upper 90s to as high as 103 degrees with around 60-80%
of the area likely to see highs reach the triple digits. With
dewpoints forecast to range the mid 60s to mid 70s, generally
increasing towards the east, widespread heat index values of 102-110
will be expected. A few Nebraska locations east of HWY-281 (areas
with the highest moisture content) may even see localized heat index
values up to 112 degrees (10-30% chance). A heat advisory will be in
effect across the entire forecast areas between 10AM and 10PM today.

So how does this heat compare to mid July standards? Normal highs
for mid July generally range the upper 80s. As result from the 10-15
degree above normal temperatures mixed with the high humidity, a
Major Heat Risk (level 3 of 4) will be in place across all of south
central Nebraska and across a few far north central Kansas areas.
This Major heat Risk classification suggests that all individuals
may be susceptible to heat related illnesses without the proper
use of hydration or an effective cooling source. Given light
southerly winds (5-15MPH) and mostly clear skies today, natural
sources for cooling will be limited as reflected by the High to
Extreme Wet Bulb Globe Temperature values (level 3/4 of 4).

Beyond the heat today, a few afternoon thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out, especially across locations north of the interstate (10-30%
chances). A cold front, racing south across South Dakota tonight,
will later be expected to reach portions of central Nebraska by this
afternoon to evening. This front will eventually provide some heat
relief for the area. In addition to the heat relief, a few storms
between 3-8PM may be possible to form along this boundary as it
passes through north central to central Nebraska. Most locations,
especially ones south of I-80, should remain dry or unimpacted.
These storms, given weak upper-level support, will not be expected
to become severe and will be fairly scattered in coverage. In terms
of high resolution model guidance, the HRRR is slightly more aggressive
with the storm coverage than the NAMNEST, though the HRRR still
depicts these storms/showers to be more short-lived and fairly
weak.

Aloft, a ridge that instigated this past weekend warmup and has been
fending off precipitation chances lately, will start to lose some of
its span of control. A shortwave trough, presently located across
the Northern Plains, will soon dig southeast, bringing along
height/pressure falls to mainly the eastern half of the area. This
should bring the jet stream down to just northeast of the area with
northwest flow setting up aloft (dictating the trajectory of any
developing storms).

Temperatures following the cold frontal passage will set up in the
upper 80s to upper 90s for Tuesday and the upper 70s to low 90s for
Wednesday. The warmest temperatures both days should generally settle
across southwest Nebraska and north central Kansas. Northerly winds
for Tuesday blowing between 10-15MPH and gusting as high as 20-30MPH
will do much of the cooling as the "cooler" airmass behind the
front is advected in. Winds for Wednesday will take on a more
easterly direction with speeds just a hare lighter from Tuesday.

Though a few 10-20% PoPs return for Tuesday from the potential of
isolated to scattered weak afternoon thunderstorms, the better and
likely more widespread precipitation potential (30-70% chances) will
come Wednesday. General agreement between the NAM and ECMWF models
show a potential MCC developing overnight Tuesday around western
Wyoming. This storm complex, given the broad northwest flow, will
have a good shot at steering itself down into central
Nebraska/Kansas on Wednesday. Though not every portion of the area
may see precipitation, all three of the long-range ensemble forecast
members (GEFS/ENS/GEPS) shows at least some of these storm/shower
remnants making down into central Nebraska/Kansas on Wednesday.
This gives us some confidence that precipitation of some magnitude
will make into into some of if not much of the area. Additional
details will get ironed out once this event becomes in range of the
short-range high resolution models.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s, warmest across
north central Kansas. Heat index values are expected to top out
around or slightly over 100 degrees. Scattered thunderstorm chances
look to remain east/south of the forecast area this afternoon-
evening. Lows tonight will be in the 70s with clear skies and light
winds.

Monday...

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the forecast period as
highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Hot temperatures combined
with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees will result in heat
index values in the mid to upper 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the entire area from 10am to 10pm Monday.

During the late afternoon-early evening hours, a cold front pushes
into far northern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is possible (15-20%) along this front. Any
storm would likely come to an end around sunset as stability
increases. Areas with the highest chance to see a storm will be
along and north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. Shear looks to be higher
than on previous days, and could support a storm on the stronger
side (gusty winds possible). The cold front steadily pushes south
across the area overnight, though lows remain in the 70s overnight.

Tuesday...

The cold front will reach portions of north central Kansas around
sunrise on Tuesday. Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest
transitions the area to a northwesterly flow pattern. Breezy winds
are expected on Tuesday behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south).

Wednesday Onwards...

Rain chances return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday as a
series of disturbances traverse through the northwesterly flow
aloft. Wherever cloud coverage and lingering convection sets up,
highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be sightly cooler, in the 80s.
At this time models support two waves of showers/storms moving
through the area: one Wednesday-Thursday AM which favors
northeastern portions of the area, and a second Thursday
evening/night which favors more central portions of the area.
There`s still plenty of time for things to change, and the exact
track of these rain chances will become clearer as we get closer in
time. Otherwise temperatures begin to climb back above normal as we
move into next weekend with ridging rebuilds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Kept the
forecast dry...though there is some uncertainty in that. Models
continue to show the potential for at least isolated activity
developing later today into this evening along a southward-
sinking frontal boundary...but show things struggling to make it
too far south. Confidence in activity actually impacting the
terminal areas is a low enough at this point that mention was
left out...but trends in models will continue to be monitored.
Any cloud cover moving through is expected to remain in the
mid-upper levels. Winds this afternoon are expected to remain
generally southwesterly...turning more light/variable this
evening as that sfc boundary moves into the area. Once it
passes, winds for the remainder of the period are expected to be
north-northeasterly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion