73°F
Updated:
7/9/2026
11:55:00pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
698 FXUS63 KOAX 100449 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1149 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and a few storms expected across eastern Nebraska early this morning (15-30% chance). - A few scattered showers and storms linger into Friday afternoon (15-30% chance) over most of the area. Some storms could produce gusty winds or small hail. - Stretch of hot and dry weather starts Saturday into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 04z RAP objective analysis shows a well defined H5 shortwave trof over the Panhandle region into central Nebraska. Broad ascent from the feature combined with sfc convergence along a boundary has led to convection developing along a line from near Ainsworth to North Platte to Cambridge, Nebraska. Latest CAM suite suggest convection largely decreasing in intensity after 10z as it enters our western areas with just some lingering scattered showers and isolated storms early this morning. While some instability of 500 to 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE lingers, 0-6 km bulk shear ranging from 20-25 kts should largely limit any severe threat over the area early this morning. PoPs remain at 15 to 30% for most of eastern Nebraska this morning. As we head into Friday afternoon and evening, should still see some lingering showers and storms across most of the forecast area as the H5 wave lingers (15-30%). Some CAMs highlight convection developing in far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa likely driven by both the wave and a remnant MCV associated from the previous evening`s MCS in Kansas. The 0-6 km bulk shear appears best in this corridor at 30-35 kts, while MLCAPE ranges from 700-1,000 J/kg. So, don`t be surprised if a few strong storms with gusty winds/hail develop in this area. For the remainder of the area, some pop up showers or isolated storms may develop in the afternoon. A few of these could produce gusty winds as they collapse given the low level dry air/high cloud bases seen from BUFKIT soundings, but overall the severe threat with these appears very limited. Showers and storms should largely dissipate after 03z. Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s with a few 90s along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Lows cool to the mid to upper 60s. Saturday will see dry conditions as a channel of sfc high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Highs warm to the upper 80s to low 90s and will be the start to a warming trend for the rest of the 7 day forecast. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The hot temperatures will largely dominate the long term forecast period. Model guidance is in really good agreement of a 594dam ridge building over much of the Central and Northern Plains areas. Temperatures warm to the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday, areawide 90s Tuesday, and mid to upper 90s Wednesday into Thursday. Areas in our far northwest up in Knox and Cedar counties may start to flirt with the 100F degree mark as early as Sunday. Heat indices for most locations should range from the low to mid 90s through at least Tuesday, before increasing slightly to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the long term period. The ridge should largely help suppress any rain chances too so expect dry weather during this period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are observed at terminals this evening with few to scattered cumulus clouds at 3,000 to 5,000 feet. These clouds will dissipate within the next two to three hours. A 15,000 to 20,000 ft cloud deck will approach from the west after 04z. Widely scattered showers and storms may develop with this activity at KOFK and KLNK after 12z, but chances still remain at less than 20%. More scattered showers and storms may develop after 21z (20-30% chance) but given uncertainty in where storms may develop, have left mentions out at terminals. Winds remain under 12 kts during the TAF cycle from the northeast, becoming east southeast in the afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Castillo
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
019 FXUS63 KGID 092321 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms, once again moving in from the west (arriving between 10PM and 1AM), could bring a few gusty winds and small hail to mainly west/southwest portions of the area. The overall severe threat will be limited. - Showers with a few embedded storms may persist across a few locations Friday morning to early afternoon. - Temperatures will soon be on a gradual rise over the next several days with an at least 4+ day streak of 90+ degree highs expected next week. - No precipitation chances lie anywhere in the forecast past Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Main Story Tonight: Storms Rolling in from the West... The main story of the day will be the chance for yet another round of storms late tonight into Friday morning. A weak shortwave disturbance popping out of the Rockies today has already started to stir up a cluster of cumulus and scattered storms across eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Though a few of these storms are expected to become severe as they cross through the rest of eastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle, given the time of arrival of these storms (arriving between 10PM-1AM), there is some question to how much energy/momentum may actually be left in the tank. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have been fairly consistent in portraying these storms to be in the stage of decay as they cross into the South Central Nebraska / North Central Kansas region. Generally these storm will be crossing into a less favorable environment, though 1,5000-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE as well as 20-35kt deep layer shear may still be just supportive enough for maintaining one or two stronger to marginally severe storms. IF any storm is able to stay severe, the main threats would be for gusty thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60MPH with a few areas of hail possible (up to quarter sized). The areas that would be the most susceptible for these stronger storms wold be areas west of HWY-183 in Nebraska as well as a few north central Kansas locations. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a Marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for locations west of a line from Cozad to Alma in Nebraska and down to Beloit in Kansas. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) clips southwest portions of Rooks and Osborne counties. Though the severe threat will be fast to diminish tonight, a few weak thunderstorms embedded within a larger array of showers will still be expected to linger across a few portions of the area, to potentially as late as noon on Friday. The overall best potential for precipitation (50-80% chances) will be concentrated west and southwest of the Tri-Cities with 20-50% chances reserved for the remainder of the area (greatest chances towards the southwest). Most locations should only expect to see 0.1-0.5" of precipitation with a few more localized amounts up to 1" possible. The Main Story Next Week: Warming Temperatures & Drier Conditions Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, temperatures have been knocked down by around 5-10 degrees for today. The "coolest" day within the next week should fall Friday as highs are forecast to spread the low to mid 80s. After Friday, highs will likely take a multi-day climb with an at least 5+ day streak of 90+ degree heat on the way for next week. This streak of increasingly warmer temperatures will become the main story for next week. This warm up will be primarily driven by a building ridge across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions, additionally helping to snuff out most precipitation chances in the process. The Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) now has a relatively strong agreement in retaining these warm and dry conditions for much of if not all of next week. The latest GFS/ECMWF models show an upper-level rex block (high pressure center north of lower pressure center) forming overtop of the Central Plains during the middle of next week. If this pattern achieves, persisting heat (mainly highs in the 90s) will be favored to stick around the area. There is still some uncertainty to how extreme this heat may become. The Weather Prediction Center, however, is beginning to highlight the potential for extreme heat next weekend (mainly on the 17th and 18th) on their extended hazard outlook. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions favored throughout TAF period with a low (15%) chance for sub-VFR conditions in scattered thunderstorms on Friday. Cloud coverage builds over the area tonight as storms move in from the west. The overall coverage of storms is expected to decrease on approach to KGRI/KEAR with scattered, off and on chances for storms possible throughout the day on Friday. The most favored times for storms will be during the early-mid morning (more likely at KEAR) and during the late afternoon. It`s possible storms could briefly drop VIS/CIGS to sub-VFR but given the overall weak nature of storms expected, did not include a sub-VFR mention in the TAF. Light and variable winds are expected throughout the TAF period, becoming westerly late in the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis
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