Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

369
FXUS63 KOAX 291836
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
136 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (20%) for isolated showers or storms
  through early this evening. Any storms may produce heavy
  rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
  eastern Nebraska late tonight into Thursday morning. Heavy
  rainfall will again be possible under the strongest storms.

- A more widespread line of thunderstorms is likely to move
  across the region later on Thursday into Friday morning.
  Damage wind will be possible with the initial line of storms,
  along with heavy rain and small hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current Conditions

The morning convective complex has largely dissipated as of 1 PM
with a few lingering showers remaining. The weak, slow-moving
short wave trough that helped drive this system is centered
over central KS with a slow southeastward progression, and a
generally lessening influence this far north. The morning storms
developed in a rather moist airmass, with low level moisture
feed off the Gulf and a mid/upper level moisture feed around the
ridge from the Baja region. This helped the stronger cells to
produce 2-3" per hour rainfall rates where they stalled. This
atmospheric moisture content is actually expected to increase
slightly in the next 36 hours with the approach of a stronger
short wave trough out of the CA/NV region. This should bring
PWAT of 2-2.2" to parts of the area in advance of the next round
of storms. The incoming western short wave trough will dampen
the upper ridge and cool temperatures a bit over the next few
days, in addition to precip potential.

Through Early Thursday

Some weak smaller-scale forcing will rotate around the ridge
tonight with a slight increase in low level jet speed over
central KS. This will increase moisture transport into western
parts of the forecast area with some LLJ convergence gradually
lifting northeast into the forecast area around sunrise or
shortly thereafter. This should support another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms with potential for pockets
of heavy rain. This area of weak forcing may persist into the
early afternoon hours, with the main question being how
widespread any convective showers/storms can be. Deep forcing is
weak, but capping is very limited and when paired with a deep
moist environment it probably won`t take much forcing to sustain
scattered storms. If convection is more widespread tomorrow, it
may limit daytime heating and instability recovery which would
lessen the late day severe potential...but fewer storms during
the day may warrant a bit more of a damaging wind potential for
late Thursday.

Late Thursday into Friday

The main show is expected on Thursday evening as the stronger
deep layer forcing pushes east. Expect the cold front entering
north central Nebraska to convect along the boundary. This will
likely transition quickly into an MCS as numerous updrafts in
close proximity conglomerate into a single forward propagating
cold pool. The theta-e and MLCAPE axes will extend from that
north central NE convection to the southeast while low level
shear vectors point east or east southeasterly. This would
appear to favor individual outflow surges directed toward the
east southeast while the larger MCS outflow system eats toward
the southeast into the instability axis. That instability does
not extend terribly far east of the Missouri River so the
intensity should wane with eastward progression. The wind and
instability fields with this system appear to be sufficient to
support severe wind in segments, but are not forecast to be
impressive enough to support a persistent high-end wind storm
across a wide expanse. Additionally, the moisture content
suggests that rainfall rates could exceed 2" per hour in heavier
cores, so any training elements will need to be monitored for
flooding potential. Showers or a storm may linger into Friday,
but the trough passes east of the area with subsidence
overtaking and drying out the region by late in the day.

Saturday Into Next Week
A rather weak northeastward extension of the upper ridge axis
from the Four Corners region will keep the local area mainly dry
through Monday or so, with surface high pressure slowly drifting
overhead and then east of the area. Highs will be largely in the
80s to low 90s with lows in the 60s in a less humid airmass. By
late Monday into Tuesday, model guidance is strong in bringing a
glancing influence of a strong Canadian trough with a front
sagging toward northern parts of the area. This will bring
thunderstorm chances if the front makes it this far south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

While there are some BKN MVFR cigs hanging around OMA at 18Z,
believe that it will scatter and lift to VFR by 18Z or very
shortly thereafter. Then expect VFR for the remainder of the TAF
period. There is some potential for SHRA or TSRA at all sites
mainly in the 10-14Z window, but it will be scattered precip so
have not included at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

210
FXUS63 KGID 291743
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue through mid-morning -
  focusing mostly along and south of I-80. Main threat is
  locally heavy rain amounts up to 2-3". Expect a period of
  drier conditions late morning through midday, but more
  isolated storms will be possible by late afternoon.

- Additional upper level disturbances moving through the area
  over the next couple of days, which will keep shower/storm
  chances in the forecast...mainly focused on the eve/night
  hours. Some storms Thu-Thu night could be strong to severe.

- A drier/quieter weather pattern should settle in late this
  week and continue through the weekend. Highs will be slightly
  cooler in the 80s to around 90F, with a slight warming trend
  possible early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A NW to SE band of thunderstorms has developed early this
morning, driven primarily by a weak mid level disturbance and
warm air advection amidst a very moist atmospheric profile. In
fact, SPC MesoA shows PWAT values around 2" over the region as
of 09Z...which is roughly 2.5-3 standard deviations above
climatology for late July. Obviously, this brings with it a
heavy rain and localized flash flooding concern, especially
considering very weak Corfidi vectors co-located with equally as
week 850-300mb mean flow. Most of the area has been on the drier
side as of late...and late July into August is peak uptake of
soil moisture by area crops...so most areas can take a couple
inches without any issues. The concern is most rate-driven
(especially for urban areas/storm drains) as well as for repeated
development/movement over the same areas which could quickly
support isolated rain amounts of 3-4". Models have really been
struggling with this activity in terms of coverage and
location...but now that it`s developed, confidence is increasing
that most of this will remain along and S of I-80...and probably
along/N of Hwy 36 in extreme N KS. There`s virtually no severe
weather threat - just a locally heavy rain threat - through
around 9-10AM, or so. The rest of the AM and into early
afternoon should be mainly dry with gradually decreasing clouds.

Just how much clearing we see will probably go a long way in
determining the isolated late afternoon "pop-up" potential...
similar to what we saw yesterday afternoon. Must areas should
remain dry...but same story for those who happen to find
themselves under one of these...expect heavy downpours.

As mentioned below...the potential for more rain/storms, and
the location and coverage of such activity, tonight, remains
more uncertain. In general, latest CAMs are less impressed with
tonight`s potential compared to past couple. Doubt we`ll stay
completely dry...but will probably be less organized/coverage.

Lastly just want to re-iterate that a stronger-forced rain/storm
chance looks on track to arrive Thursday evening/night.
Obviously still some details to work out, but some guidance
suggests a broken to solid line of storms that moves NW to SE
across the area, with likely at least some strong wind risk. As
such, SPC has upgraded a small portion of the region to a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for mainly damaging wind threat. South
central Nebraska counties look to be more at risk than northern
Kansas...but hopeful most areas could see some rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Wednesday and Thursday...

The main story through the mid-week period continues to lie with
a couple more upper level shortwave disturbances passing
through...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the
models/forecast.

Think that Wednesday will be similar to today...in that there
could be some activity left over from tonight lingering around
mainly southern/eastern portions of the area during the early-
mid morning hours...with the majority of the daytime hours being
dry. Not a lot of change in the upper level pattern, with the
persistent ridging keeping that west-northwesterly flow in
place. At the surface, models are showing winds turning more
southeasterly...with speeds around 10-15 MPH, some show the
potential for gusts near 20 MPH in spots. Forecast highs also
similar to today in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Little more uncertainty remains Wednesday night on through
Thursday night with the timing/coverage of precipitation
associated with additional disturbances moving through. Models
vary more on Wed night into Thursday, some more generous with
activity, others showing a smaller swath developing with weaker
forcing. Models remain pretty consistent showing a stronger wave
moving through Thu evening-night...bringing better potential
for storms, some of which could be strong-severe (the entire
area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area). Forecast
highs a bit more of a range from the mid 80s-mid 90s...driven by
some models keeping activity lingering around longer into the
day than others.

Friday on into early next week...

Forecast for the end of the week into the start of the new work
week dries back out. The main impact from the disturbance
moving through Thursday night is with the westward shift of the
main upper level ridge axis, bringing more amplified north-
northwesterly flow to the Central Plains at least through the
weekend. Models showing an overall lack of disturbances through
the weekend, with some low PoPs returning around Tuesday. Breezy
NNE winds are forecast for Friday in the wake of a sfc frontal
passage...but at this point that front doesn`t look to have a
notable downward impact on temps or dewpoints, with highs in the
mid-80s to near 90. Forecast highs through the weekend on into
Monday are similar to Friday, mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to last through 6z tonight with a
few low ceilings and possibly slight reductions in visibilities
possible from scattered overnight to Thursday morning storms
(20-30% chances; fairly scattered storm coverage). Outside of a
passing storm or two, lower ceilings just north of the forecast
area between 12-15z (IFR to low-end MVFR classifications) will
be possible to near the fringes of the area. Confidence is not
high enough to prevail with the storms or sub-VFR ceilings at
this time. Winds will maintain a southeasterly direction through
the period with gusts blowing no higher than 15-20kts though
the rest of the day and night (gusts 20-25kts possible starting
late Thursday morning.




&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion