Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

900
FXUS63 KOAX 062230
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
530 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday with dry
  conditions.

- Thunderstorm chances return to northeast Nebraska late Tuesday
  night, with better chances across the region Wednesday night
  into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday.

- A prolonged period of hot and humid weather is expected
  starting this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet weather today with eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa settled
under a southwestern lobe of high pressure stemming from a broader
anticyclone over eastern Canada. Skies are mostly clear and
temperatures are seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s across our area. The upper-level pattern shows a ridge building
northeastward out of the Four Corners region, while troughing over
the Lower-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys leads to storms over
the East Coast and Southeast.

High pressure and the building ridge generating subsidence over our
area will inhibit any storm activity today and tomorrow. The surface
high keeps the low-level jet to our west, forcing any overnight
storm activity north and west of our area. Temperatures will stay
warm into midweek with a very gradual warming trend. Expect another
chance for patchy, shallow fog development overnight tonight into
early Tuesday with light winds and humid conditions.

Storms will not be kept at bay too long, though. The ridge breaks
down late Tuesday into Wednesday, creating more zonal flow across
our area and forcing the surface high back east. This will bring the
low-level jet back into eastern Nebraska, advecting moisture back up
from the Gulf. With this in place, shortwaves will again generate
periods of showers and storms, starting late Tuesday into early
Wednesday and repeating the evening and overnight periods Wednesday
night and Thursday night. We`ll also see an increase in humidity
with dew points rising back into the low 70s. This will bring max
heat indices back up into the mid-to-upper 90s on Wednesday.

Wednesday night storms will bring a frontal boundary south for
Thursday, oriented west to east across our area. Milder, drier
conditions will be expected north of this boundary, while hot and
humid conditions persist to the south. This boundary will act as a
focus for additional showers and storm chances Thursday evening into
the overnight hours.

Storms Thursday night into early Friday bring the boundary farther
south potentially as far south as northeast Kansas. As this occurs,
a more longwave trough shifts east into our area providing forcing
for showers and storm chances through much of the day on Friday.
These both combine for a milder day with occasional shower and storm
chances. Highs on Friday generally only get up into the mid 80s.

Milder weather doesn`t last for long, though, as long-range guidance
is in good agreement on a strong ridge building over the Rockies
going into the weekend and shifting eastward over our area Sunday
into Monday. This likely brings back dangerously hot and humid
conditions with heat indices rising back above 100 degrees starting
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are favored throughout the forecast period.
Light, southerly winds will continue, gradually backing to
southeasterly through the period. A few clouds will continue at
FL050 before clearing into the evening. Patchy fog capable of
MVFR conditions is expected overnight, but it should mostly
stay restricted to low- lying and wind protected area.
Therefore, fog has not been included in the current TAF package
due to the low confidence (20%) in impacts at the terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

908
FXUS63 KGID 062342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today, and most likely (80-90%) dry Tuesday

- Most likely chance (50-70%) for precipitation/thunderstorms
  will be Wednesday afternoon/night...Lesser chance (30-50%) on
  Thursday.

- Hotter weather pattern for the end of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet today with some afternoon cumulus, south to southeasterly
winds a bit stronger than we`ve had the last couple days with
temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

The primary points to talk about in this forecast are the
Precipitation chances for mid and late week and the warm up for
the end of the forecast.

The current ridge that is building in from the four corners
region is not overly strong and a new disturbances are moving in
from the central/northern Pacific coast and will break the ridge
down. This will cause more quasi-zonal flow across the area,
allowing for the disturbances moving across the northern Plains
to impact us. The first and best chance for more widespread
precipitation, including the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along or
near a front that will be pushed east by a disturbance over the
Northern Plains. The Grand Ensemble (including GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
indicates that at least 76% of the ensemble solutions have at
least a trace at KGRI.

For Thursday, the best potential for thunderstorms actually
exists to the west of the area, primarily out in the High
Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, then after development it is
more likely to track southeast into western Kansas. The same
Grand Ensemble for Thursday at KGRI only includes 42 % that have
at least a trace at KGRI. Meanwhile, looking further west,
Thursday night shows a 59% chance of Precip greater than a
trace. This highlights the greater potential for precipitation
west of the area. That doesn`t mean it will necessarily be dry,
but it`s not as good of a chance as Wednesday.

Temperatures will be seasonal throughout the week. Highs in the
low 90s ahead of the wave on Wednesday with Thursday and Friday
briefly cooler (highs in the mid 80s).

Things change by the end of the weekend, as the overall upper
pattern changes with a ridge building into the intermountain
west. It will heat up for the week of July 13th. That being
said, watching the trends of the ECMWF Ensemble over the past 48
hours, the trend has actually been decreasing...in terms of
some of the crazy high temperatures (exceeding 100 degrees). Now
don`t take this to mean that it won`t still be a heat
wave/significant warm up, but it may not be as hot as some
guidance suggested a couple days ago. Wednesday and Thursday
July 15th-16th look to be some of the hottest days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Models continue to show the better potential for any
preciptiation remaining well of to the WNW of the terminal
sites. Cloud cover looks to mainly be FEW...some bases may be
around 5-6k ft, otherwise clouds are expected to mainly be in
the upper levels. Not looking at any notable changes in winds
through the period...remaining south-southeasterly, with most
speeds around 10-15 MPH, though a few gusts closer to 20 MPH are
not out of the question Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion