Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

040
FXUS63 KOAX 071754
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1254 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds decrease as a boundary slips through the
  region today, shifting winds out of the north. Mainly dry
  conditions persist through Friday.

- Warmer temperatures return to the forecast Monday and Tuesday with
  highs reaching into the 80s.

- Expect chances for showers and storms for at least a portion
  of the forecast area Saturday and again on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper trough over the Great Lakes
and portions of western Canada with northwest flow over the Great
Plains. Expect sunny skies to continue through the afternoon with
possibly a few high clouds moving in from the west by this evening.
Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to mid-70s across the
region. There is a weak boundary sliding south this afternoon,
having already moved through Ord, Norfolk and Tekamah. Gusty
southwest winds will persist for a few more hours across
southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa as the boundary continues to
slide to the south. Behind it, winds have become northerly around 5-
10mph. Winds will become light and variable overnight.

Late Thursday night into Friday morning, an embedded shortwave
trough slips through the region, possibly kicking off a few
sprinkles or light showers for areas along and south of a line from
Genoa to Omaha.

Friday, northwest flow persists over the Great Plains. Much of the
day will be pleasant with highs in the 70s. A few locations may
approach 80 degrees. Winds remain northerly to northwesterly,
increasing late Friday morning/early afternoon. Overnight lows will
be mainly in the 40s.

Saturday, a shortwave trough drops in from the northwest into the
region. This will give us a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional chances for
showers are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sunday through Tuesday: An upper ridge will be in place over the
Canadian Rockies into Idaho and western Montana. Models have a
shortwave trough coming ashore over the PACNW by Sunday evening.
This system will make its way across northern Montana on Monday,
sliding across the Dakotas Monday night/Tuesday morning, and
southeastward into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa by late Tuesday
morning. Sunday`s highs top out in the 70s, with 80s expected Monday
as WAA takes place. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
the forecast Tuesday as the system moves through. There is still
some uncertainty in the timing and location of the system, so this
forecast may change as we come closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Skies will
be mostly clear through mid-afternoon, with a broken layer of
upper level clouds moving in 00Z. West winds at KOMA/KLNK will
become northwesterly this afternoon. Light and variable winds
are expected tonight through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

327
FXUS63 KGID 072028
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/weak storms possible this evening, though
  any accumulations expected to be light (0.10" or less).

- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible Friday
  afternoon due to the combination of breezy winds and low
  humidity...with more significant fire weather concerns
  possible next week.

- Another small chance for showers and weak thunderstorms
  returns Saturday. Once again, any accumulations are expected
  to be light and severe weather is unlikely.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the
  forecast period with highs in the 70s and 80s. Normal high
  temperatures for mid-May are right around 70 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper level disturbance in northwesterly flow will cross the
local area tonight brining with it the chance for a few high
based showers/sprinkles and possibly a weak thunderstorm to
parts of the local area. Given the lack of surface moisture,
little to no accumulation is expected across the vast majority
of the local area, with the best chance of a thunderstorm
expected during the evening hours across areas primarily
southwest of the Nebraska Tri-cities.

Continued northwest flow will then persist into the weekend
before an upper level ridge eventually transitions eastward
across the local area by Sunday. Before the upper level ridge
moves across the local area, one more notable disturbance is
expected to impact the local area on Saturday brining with it a
slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening (although there is a low end chance for a
few pop up sprinkles Friday afternoon). While a few stronger
storms with mainly gusty winds will be possible with this
disturbance/surface front Saturday, limited instability will
likely limit the potential for severe weather...and the local
area remains outside the marginal risk from SPC. That said, a
few models such as the NAMnest fire up a line of storms along
the front Saturday afternoon which could eventually impact local
portions of north central Kansas before exiting the area, so
will need to continue to keep an eye on the timing of this
system.

Thereafter...an upper level ridge is expected build across the
area late in the weekend with a return to high temperatures well
above normal (in the 80s) through at least the first half of
next week. These warmer temperatures combined with a continued
dry airmass and breezy afternoons will eventually likely result
in some near-critical to critical fire weather concerns,
although with fuels starting to green-up, some of this concern
may be at least partially alleviated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with some
mid level clouds anticipated late tonight along with a few light
showers or sprinkles possible.

Light west/northwesterly breezes and increasing clouds
anticipated to continue at the terminals through the afternoon
hours. A weak disturbance in northwesterly flow will result in a
mid level cloud deck near 8KFT late tonight along with a few
light SHRA`s or sprinkles, but confined this possibility to a
prob30 group as confidence in much if any precipitation is on
the lower side. Skies should begin to clear across the area aft
08/12Z with increasing northwesterly winds...with gusts to 15+
KTS...possible by 08/15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion