Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

258
FXUS63 KOAX 031043
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs reach the 80s today with a small chance (15-20%) for
  some showers and storms this afternoon.

- 50-70% chance for some showers and storms overnight, with the
  highest chances across northeast Nebraska. Storms may be
  strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail.

- Active pattern continues Thursday and Friday with chances for
  showers and storms. A few storms may be strong to severe both
  days.

- Brief lull in storm chances Saturday before resuming Sunday
  (30-60%) and Monday (40-60%). Temperatures remain warm in the
  upper 80s with a few low 90s by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective analysis shows the 565dam closed low spinning over
southern Saskatchewan, while ridging is observed ahead of the
feature from the Southern Plains toward Michigan. Looking at the
sfc, southeasterly flow dominates much of the area given the
anticyclonic flow from the sfc high east of the area. Temperatures
remain in the mid 60s to low 70s.

As we head into the early morning hours today, the remnants of an
MCS will enter portions of northeast Nebraska after 10z per latest
CAMs. MUCAPE will be dwindling by that time, ranging anywhere from
100 to 500 J/kg, and with little shear of 10 to 20 kts, the feature
will likely fall apart by the time it enters the area. PoPs of 15 to
25% were included with this forecast update primarily over far
northeast Nebraska to account for the feature.

For the rest of the daytime hours, weak low level warm advection
should help push highs to the mid 80s. Similar to previous days,
could see a few widely scattered showers or storms develop across
the forecast area by midday into the afternoon hours (15 to 20%
chance). While instability will be abundant, weak bulk shear of 20
to 25 kts will lead to poor storm organization and an overall
limited severe threat. Farther to our northwest over central South
Dakota, better shear and instability are observed along an
approaching sfc front. CAM guidance fires off an MCS in that area
this evening, eventually taking it to the southeast and entering
northeast Nebraska where some 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE lingers. Some
strong wind gusts and small hail certainly appear plausible with the
MCS initially, but some questions remain as to how long the feature
will maintain itself. The best 0-6 km bulk shear appears to be
concentrated in a corridor north of our forecast area up in FSD by I-
90, which is where solutions like the HRRR tend to keep the feature
strongest while it decays as it enters northeast Nebraska. At this
time, a marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) remains in
effect for northeast Nebraska Wednesday evening. PoPs of 50 to 70%
are currently in the forecast for northeast Nebraska, but again,
some potential exists for these chances to decrease depending on the
evolution of the environment. Convection will likely fester into the
morning hours of Thursday given a lingering H8 LLJ helping provide
some speed convergence/forcing.

Thursday will see the H5 flow become more zonal to slightly
southwesterly. A shortwave is progged to track through that flow
across the Central Plains. With temperatures warming to the mid 80s
for most locations, should see another warm day with convective
temps being reached. Skinny CAPE profiles of 500 to 1,000 J/kg
should lead to a few scattered showers and storms in the afternoon.
Despite rather poor H7-H5 lapse rates of 5 to 6 deg C/km, borderline
shear of 25 to 30 kts could yield an isolated strong to severe storm
producing strong winds or hail. Storms may also be efficient
rainfall producers with PWATs of 1.75 to around 2 inches, which is
well above the 90th percentile (around 1.34 inches per SPC sounding
climo for OAX).

Similar to today, Thursday evening will see another MCS feature
develop over the Dakotas and race southeastward. There is some
chance that the feature could again enter northeast Nebraska where
better shear and instability are forecast. At this time, a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is forecast for far northwest
Knox County, while a broad marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
storms is forecast for much of the forecast area. PoPs of 30 to 50%
are forecast for much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late
Thursday morning into the afternoon, while chances really ramp up to
60 to 80% areawide by Thursday night.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Early Friday morning, some long range CAMs like the NAMNest suggest
the MCS feature lingering across the area til around 11z. Repeated
passage of storms over areas that received a lot of rainfall
Thursday afternoon could see localized instances of flash flooding.
Later in the day, should see another H5 shortwave trof track through
the area while a sfc cold front approaches from the west.
Instability will pool in the warm sector ahead of the main front,
ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg of CAPE, and combined with steep H7-
H5 lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear around 30 kts, some threat for
severe storms will exist. Various machine learning algorithms
suggest some threat for strong to severe storms for the area, so if
you have any plans for Friday, make sure to stay up to date with the
forecast. PoPs remain at 30 to 50% for Friday afternoon, increasing
to 60 to 80% Friday evening.

For Saturday, the H5 ridge builds into the Northern Plains.
Expanding 1000-500 mb thicknesses should yield warmer temperatures,
with most areas reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. Large scale
subsidence should help limit Saturday`s storm chances, with any
chances largely confined over our far southeast areas. More chances
for showers and storms return Sunday (30 to 60%) and Monday (40 to
60%) as a wave lifts northeast from the Southern Plains toward the
Central Plains. With this forecast update, the various machine
learning algorithms indicate severe potential remaining to our south
and west. Temps remain in the mid to upper 80s both days. Primarily
dry conditions are favored for Tuesday as another H5 ridge builds
into the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Winds will remain calm and out of the southeast early
this morning before becoming more southerly and increasing to
12-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts by this afternoon. Mid- and
high-level clouds will increase in coverage through the day,
with a few clouds around FL050 passing by through the late
morning and afternoon.

A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to push in from the west
after 04/04Z, with the highest confidence in impacts at KOFK.
Confidence is lower (30% chance) in thunderstorms making it to
KLNK and KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

586
FXUS63 KGID 031153
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We remain in a very active...but tricky-to-forecast
  rain/thunderstorm chances pattern, with at least some portion
  of our forecast area (CWA) carrying at least a small chance
  of rain/storms nearly every day and night due to a seemingly
  non-stop parade of mainly low-amplitude upper waves pushing in
  from the west.

- Each of the next three days (Wed-Fri) will carry at least
  some threat for severe storms. Today and Thursday, much of our
  CWA is under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for at least a
  few strong to marginally-severe storms, while Friday (albeit a
  few days out and of lower confidence) now looks to carry a
  conditional threat for perhaps a few more intense
  storms...with SPC introducing a Slight Risk (level 2) to
  roughly half of our CWA.

- Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, but currently
  look to carry sparser coverage and a lower risk for severe
  compared to these next three days.

- In addition to a severe storm threat, especially this evening
  through Friday night will carry a continued threat for at
  least isolated/localized flooding (as evidenced by WPC
  Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall). So far over the last ~
  4 days we`ve been fairly fortunate in "spreading rain around"
  pretty well in moderate doses, but we`ve also seen a few
  localized bullseyes of at least 2- 4" that fell too fast and
  caused mainly minor flooding...and suspect that we`ll see a few
  more of these over the coming days.

- Temperature-wise: Overall a very persistent/consistent stretch of
  slightly above normal warmth continues. Highs on most of the
  next 7 days mainly in the 80s (occasional low 90s mainly
  south/west)...and overnight lows mainly low-mid 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Some up-front honesty: This forecaster was about to send a
typical longer/more detailed discussion a bit ago, but made the
rare mistake of not hitting the "save" button and it ended up
going into the "great abyss". Alas, in the interest of time,
here is a more abbreviated version mostly in "bullet point"
format:

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
Although still three days away and of some definite uncertainty,
cannot argue with SPC introducing a Slight Risk to roughly half
of our CWA on the latest Day 3 outlook for Friday. Given a
fairly potent combination of 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE/instability and
perhaps at least 35-40KT of deep layer shear, a few intense
supercells with at least a large/very large hail threat could
develop. These storms could focus within a fairly narrow swath
of the CWA however wherever a surface boundary sets up (yet to
be refined).


-- SOLELY FOCUSING ON THESE NEXT 48 HOURS (again, in brief):
--  CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER:
- An overall-drier night than expected, as we remained south of
  a northern NE storm complex and north-northeast of spotty
  showers/a few weak storms over central/western KS.

-- TODAY (through around 7 PM):
- Kept any morning slight rain/thunderstorm chances to only far
  northern/southwestern parts of our CWA.
- MOST of the afternoon should remain dry as well, but with
  1000-2000 J/kg of weakly-capped instability building, cannot
  totally rule out a rogue, slow-moving storm almost anywhere so
  have slight (20% chances entire CWA.
- High temps mainly 82-85 degrees...somewhat breezy south-
  southeast winds sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH.


--  THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (mainly after 7 PM):
- Chances for at least isolated/scattered storms increase as
  lift increases from an upper wave approaching from the south-
  southwest.
- Overall-most widespread rain chances probably favoring the
  northern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA especially if a larger-scale
  complex/cluster heads due east out of western NE
- Cannot rule out a few strong to marginally severe
  storms...main threats 50-60 MPH winds (especially along
  leading edge of outflow from a storm complex) and mainly
  smaller hail perhaps up to around nickel size.
- Spotty pockets of at least 1-2" of rain in a short time and
  localized flooding possible.
- Low temps mainly low 60s.


-- THURSDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM):
- Opposite of most recent setups, the DAYTIME hours here likely
  carry higher storm chances than the evening-overnight will,
  as the upper wave that gets storms going tonight slowly
  traverses our area from west-to-east during the day Thursday.
- Any morning storms mainly weak...but as at least 1500-2500
  J/kg instability builds in the afternoon and deep-layer shear
  increases to around 30KT, especially the eastern half of our
  CWA (counties along/east of Hwy 281) could see a round of
  scattered strong to severe storms with a hail/damaging
  wind/localized flooding threat.
- Later SPC outlooks may need to consider expanding Marginal
  Risk down into at least eastern parts of our KS zones and
  perhaps removing risk from our western counties if these
  trends hold.
- High temps very similar to today...mainly 82-86.


-- THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
- While storms (possibly marginally-severe?) could still be
  ongoing early in the evening mainly in our far eastern
  counties, the departure of the upper wave to our east likely
  results in a dry/mostly dry later evening-overnight.
- Low temps very similar to tonight...mainly low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An upper low/trough is over southern Canada, northern Rocky
Mountains, and northern Plains. Another upper low/shortwave trough
is over south central Kansas. Winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of the southeast.
High temperatures today will generally range from the mid 70s to
low/mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are developing across
portions of the area and are expected to continue until around 10
PM. The most likely area for storm development will be along and
east of a line from Kearney to Smith Center. Some strong storms have
developed but severe storms are not expected with fairly low lapse
rates and wind shear. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
mid 50s to low/mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move into portions of the area from the southwest tonight mainly
impacting areas southwest of the Tri-Cities.

Winds will mostly be out of the south to southeast on Wednesday with
high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 80s. Storms may again
develop on Wednesday across portions of the area as shortwaves move
over the area. Surface CAPE values of around 2,500 to near 3,500
J/kg are expected on Wednesday. Wind shear will be a little higher
Wednesday than today with values of around 25 to 40 knots. Mid-level
lapse rates will be between 5.5 and around 7 degrees C/km. The
highest values of all the above mentioned parameters will generally
be across the western half of the forecast area. Areas generally
along and west of Highway 281 are in a marginal risk of severe
weather per the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook. Any severe
development is mainly expected during the evening and early
overnight hours. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or
a few degrees warmer than the previous night.

An upper trough will move over the area Thursday with more showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop. Severe weather parameters are
expected to be less than the previous day so widespread severe
weather is not expected. Cannot out rule an isolated strong to
severe storm or two. High temperatures on Thursday will
generally be similar to the previous couple of days. Low
temperatures Thursday night will generally range from the mid
50s to mid 60s.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend beginning on Friday with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be present Friday through
Monday as troughs pass over/near the area. At this time, severe
weather potential is unknown but will continue to monitor as time
gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although there are some uncertainties lurking in the details,
prevailing VFR ceiling/visibility is expected through most of
the period, along with rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through
at least these first 12 hours. That being said, it is now
looking likely that at least intermittent MVFR ceiling will
occur this morning a As for winds (and not accounting for any
possible convective outflow influences), things seem fairly
straightforward, with a southeasterly to southerly direction
prevailing throughout. Sustained speeds through most of the
period should prevail at-or-below 12KT, with the overall-
strongest breezes focused 16-01Z with sustained speeds roughly
15KT/gusts 20-25KT.

- Ceiling uncertainties and MVFR potential:
It turns out that some of the model trends mentioned in 06Z
discussion were onto something, as at least patches of MVFR
stratus have developed across the area and will likely persist
through at least this morning. Have introduced TEMPO groups
focused 13-17Z to account for this, as this will probably not be
a truly prevailing feature. Additional MVFR is possible very
late in the period early Thurs AM but could be disrupted by
convection, so have kept ceilings VFR.

- Shower/thunderstorm uncertainty:
We remain in a weather pattern that breeds lower-than-usual
confidence in the details of convection...including
likelihood/placement/intensity. There is a low probability (20%)
that spotty convection could develop in the general area during
heating of the mid-late afternoon, but this is considered too
low of a probability for TAF inclusion. The more likely scenario
is for a cluster or complex of showers/thunderstorms to move in
from the west-southwest anytime after 00-01Z as increasing
upper lift arrives. Considered going with TEMPO groups for some
of this, but with it still just beyond the first 12 hours opted
to maintain several hours of PROB30. IF any storms do impact
KGRI/KEAR, severe weather is fairly unlikely (albeit non-zero),
but gusty winds/brief heavy rain/small hail cannot be ruled out.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion