Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

922
FXUS63 KOAX 070528
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated frost may develop this morning primarily in northeast
  Nebraska. Chances for an areawide frost remain low.

- Dry conditions largely expected for Friday with little threat
  (10-14% chance) for some rain/sprinkles.

- Warmer temperatures expected Friday and Saturday with highs in
  the 70s and 80s. A 50 to 60% chance for showers and storms has
  shifted farther south toward the Nebraska/Kansas border area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective analysis shows the H5 longwave trof dominating
portions of the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes and into
Canada. The feature places much of Nebraska and Iowa within
northwest flow, and should see a shortwave within this flow
track to our northeast this morning. The weak forcing from the
wave combined with H7-H8 low level thermal advection may help
force a few weak showers across our far northern and
northeastern border areas, but forecast soundings struggle to
saturate anything below 10kft, so only expecting some mid to
high based clouds in those areas.

Southwest sfc winds of 5 to 10 mph in the early morning hours should
help limit frost potential for most locations along with slightly
warmer lows above freezing. Lingering cloud cover over our very far
northern and northeastern areas too may help reduce the frost threat
in those locations.

For the rest of Thursday, should see mostly sunny conditions with
temperatures warming to the upper 60s to low 70s for most areas as
H8 warm air advection overspreads much of the region. Expect
southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with some gustiness up to 25 mph
mainly south of the Platte River. A sfc boundary pushes through by
the evening hours, switching winds to the northwest. Northwest flow
aloft will bring yet another weak shortwave through the area by the
late evening. Various CAM guidance suggests some light rain showers
over the area thereafter into the early morning hours of Friday, but
once again, the dry air wins with forecast BUFKIT soundings showing
little if any saturation below 10kft. At this time, PoPs remain
unmentionable at 10-14%. Lows Thursday night reach the low to
mid 40s.

Temperatures warm to the mid 70s areawide by Friday afternoon with
dry conditions and northwesterly winds. Lows Friday night cool to
the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Model guidance indicates that a shortwave trof will eject from the
Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Plains Saturday. By the
afternoon hours, the feature will be right at our doorstep. Farther
to our northeast, the closed H5 low will intensify with sfc
cyclogenesis ensuing. The associated cold front will extend from the
sfc feature west southwest into much of Iowa and southern Nebraska.
The front may trigger some scattered showers and a few rumbles of
thunder over the southern half of our service area, with the highest
chances (50-60% PoPs) largely confined along the
Kansas/Nebraska border in the late afternoon and evening hours.
The latest NBM run seems to be in agreement with ensembles which
are trending the precip farther south. LREF ensembles suggest a
30 to 60% chance for wetting precip primarily south of a line
from near York to Lincoln to Clarinda, IA, with the GEFS being
the northernmost member. Highs Saturday warm to the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Rain chances taper off by early Sunday morning leaving behind a mix
of clouds and sun as temperatures reach the low 70s. Highs rebound
though for the first half of the work week as the 1000-500 mb
thermal ridge begins to build and amplify over the Northern Plains.
Expect highs to reach the low to mid 80s Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday. A passing H5 wave and sfc low late Monday into Tuesday
may trigger a few scattered showers and storms, but chances remain
at 15 to 25% with the highest chances primarily across western Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Another consecutive TAF determined by winds only, keeping
conditions VFR. South-southwesterly winds will become
northwesterly by mid-day Thursday with gusts of 15-20 knots
before relaxing again on Thursday around sunset. This will leave
winds light and variable. Expect mostly clear skies until
Thursday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

140
FXUS63 KGID 070753
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
253 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory in effect until 8am.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon
  and Friday afternoon due to the combination of breezy winds
  and low humidity.

- Scattered showers/weak storms possible this evening, though
  any accumulations remain light (0.10" or less).

- Above normal temperatures continue through the end of the
  forecast period with highs in the 70s and 80s.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Aloft a trough is moving into the plains as northwesterly flow
builds over the area. At the surface, temperatures are currently in
the upper 30s to 40s. Westerly winds of 10-15mph, gusting around
20mph are keeping temperatures elevated this morning and preventing
temperatures from truly bottoming out and reaching the freezing
mark. Still, sheltered/low lying areas may get enough of a break
from the wind to see temperatures favorable enough for
patchy/localized frost formation. A Frost Advisory remain in effect
until 8am.

After a cold start to the day, temperatures quickly climb this
morning, topping out in the 70s this afternoon (warmest southwest of
Tri-Cities). Winds start out the day breezy, gusting 20-25mph, but
gusts decrease to 20mph or less during the afternoon. Relative
humidity values fall to 15-20% across most of the area this
afternoon. While winds are lighter this afternoon, gusts around
20mph will still result in near-critical fire weather
conditions during the afternoon-early evening hours. A passing
disturbance/shortwave moves through the Plains this evening,
bringing a chance (10-25%) for scattered showers/weak storms to
the area. The overall highest rain chances will be across
southwestern portions of the area, though even there showers
look to be fairly scattered. Accumulations from these
showers/storms will be light (0.10" or less).

Any lingering showers exit the area by sunrise on Friday. Highs
climb into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Breezy northwest winds
gusting 20-25mph are expected during the afternoon. Relative
humidity values of 20-25 percent combined with the breezy winds will
result in near-critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon-early evening hours.

The next disturbance moves through the area on Saturday, bringing
scattered-widespread precipitation chances. Limited moisture return
should limit severe weather concerns, though a stronger storm is
possible during the afternoon near the triple point/cold front.
Otherwise the forecast remain on track through the end of the
forecast period. Near-above normal temperatures are expected under
largely northwesterly flow aloft. Drier weather returns next week,
along with breezy winds which could result in fire weather returns
concerning to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Some updates/notes regarding the previously-issued Frost
  Advisory for tonight-Thursday AM:

- The very basics:
The time duration of the Advisory has been "shrunk" from
10pm-9am...to now 1am-8am, as this new timing better reflects
the true "window of opportunity" for possible frost.

- More details:
As Frost Advisories go, this one is admittedly on the
marginal/"medium confidence" side...and probably errs on the
side of caution for most places.

As has been discussed here at times over the past few days, the
weather setup late tonight-early Thursday morning is not your
classic "ridge night" with near-calm winds and a surface high
pressure system almost directly on top of us. Instead, tonight
is actually a warm air advection night (WAA), with most areas
experiencing steady southwesterly breezes that actually increase
post-midnight...generally sustained 10-15 MPH/sporadic gusts 20+
MPH. As a result, despite clear skies (always favorable for a
temperature drop), those breezes/associated low-level WAA
should really counter the clear skies and keep temps from
"tanking". Official low temps have been nudged up a few degrees
from previous forecast, with even much of the Frost Advisory
area now expected to bottom out no colder than 33-37 degrees.
While these temperatures at least marginally-support patchy
frost development, the aforementioned steady breezes should
HEAVILY confine frost to limited, low-lying and wind-sheltered
locations. In other words, the MAJORITY of the Advisory area
probably won`t see frost. These mitigating factors have also
been included in an "Additional Details" bullet in our
latest official Advisory statement.


All that being said:
Given that we are now nearly a week into May and more and more
home owners/garden centers have either planted sensitive
vegetation or rolled out their inventory into outdoor settings,
we will continue with this Frost Advisory (again, erring on the
side of caution), while fully acknowledging that MOST of the
Advisory area probably won`t actually realize frost formation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper trough extends from the Upper Midwest to the Desert
Southwest. Skies are mostly cloudy across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas with temperatures mostly in the
50s. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s tonight with
clearing skies. Winds will be out of the southwest tonight ranging
from 5 to 15 MPH. There is potential (around 50% to 60% chance) for
frost to develop tonight mainly along and west of Highway 281,
although there is some uncertainty in wind speed, moisture, and
temperatures. This will likely (80%-90% chance) be the last
frost/freeze potential for this season. Some isolated locations,
especially across the far western portion of the forecast area, may
experience temperatures as low as 32 degrees. A Frost Advisory has
been issued for tonight into Thursday morning for most locations
along and west of Highway 281.

Winds will mainly be out of the west on Thursday with temperatures
warming up into the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. A shortwave will
move over the area Thursday night and may result (10%-15% chance) in
some light rain/sprinkles across portions of the area. Winds will
begin to become northerly Thursday night with low temperatures
mostly in the 40s. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be
similar to those on Thursday. North to northwest winds are expected
on Friday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may
develop Friday afternoon, especially across western portions of
the area. Low temperatures Friday night will again be in the 40s.

A cold front will push into the region on Saturday, but temperatures
are expected to warm up into the 70s and 80s. A shortwave is
expected along with the front and may result (up to around 70%
chance) in showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.
There is potential for severe storms due to increase in lift, higher
CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. Severe potential will
continue to be monitored. The cold front will continue moving
through the area Saturday night with high temperatures on Sunday
mostly in the low to mid 70s. Winds will mostly be out of the south
on Monday with temperatures warming up into the 80s to low 90s. Fire
weather concerns increase again on Monday with wind gusts up to
around 20-30 MPH and humidity down to 15%-20% just west of the Tri-
Cities area. Similar high temperatures are expected on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southwest winds
gusting around 20kts are expected through the overnight hours,
shifting to the west-southwest after sunrise. By the late
morning hours, gusts fall below 20kts as winds become
northwesterly. After sunset, scattered showers move into the
area with ceilings becoming SCT-BKN around 080-100. Have
indicated this potential with a PROB30 group.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-040-046-
     060-061-072>074-082>084.
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006-017-
     018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion