Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

879
FXUS63 KOAX 280503
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1203 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong to severe storm possible overnight in far northeast
  Nebraska.

- Dangerous heat builds Sunday and Monday, with heat index
  values reaching 105 to 110 degrees in some areas.

- Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with
  occasional evening and overnight thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Sfc analysis indicates the warm front is draped near I-80 as of
9:00 PM with skies having cleared over the evening hours. The
mid-level pattern is dominated by a cutoff low spinning over the
state of WA, with an amplifying ridge over the Great Plains,
and a shortwave betwixt the two. That shortwave having
initiated some severe weather over NE Wyoming that has made its
way onto the NE Panhandle and SD prairie.

Overnight will see the thunderstorm complex out west continuing
east, clipping far northeast Nebraska. Severe warnings are
unlikely as the system should be cold pool dominant by that
point and will be working into a more stable environment, but
our meteorologists will be monitoring for severe wind gusts.
Have limited PoPs to 15-30% for the northernmost counties.

At the same time, the warm front will continue to make progress
farther north, opening the door for the season`s hottest temps
so far. The convective cloud cover overnight will be clearing
from south to north, replacing Saturday`s overcast skies with a
powerful June sun that`s about as high in the sky as it can get.

.SUNDAY...

Under that sunshine and quick southerly flow, temps will rocket
to near 90F by noon and mid- to upper-90s by late afternoon.
Dewpoints will be highest in the dense corn fields of Iowa,
leading to heat indices of up to 110F there. For this reason,
a extreme heat warning has been posted there and for the Omaha
metro where the urban heat island can make homes with no air-
conditioning very difficult to cool, even overnight. A heat
advisory is posted for most of the remainder of the area with an
exception of the area around Norfolk, Albion, Columbus, where
humidity will be a bit lower. Cedar and Knox County also have a
heat advisory for the hottest 8 hours of the day. Elsewhere,
the heat headlines (advisory and warning) will be left in place
overnight due to the warm overnight heat indices (78-82 mins).
The unusual warm nighttime lows prevent the body and buildings
from cooling down. This creates a compounding risk of heat-
related illness over the consecutive days of toasty temps.

.MONDAY...

There may be a degree or three improvement on the western
periphery of the forecast area, but Monday will nearly be a
repeat of Sunday with Iowa being just as hot. Heat indices of
100-105 in the advisory area and 103-109 in the excessive heat
warning. It`ll be another breezy one with winds forecast to peak
at 15-30 mph.

Monday night has the potential to bring some severe weather to
the area with a front expected to settle into the area as a
shortwave works through the Dakotas. Forcing for ascent will be
better north of here, but the atmosphere over eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa will be juicy and unstable. There`s just too
many question marks in placement and timing (disagreements in
numerical models) that the SPC`s `slight` risk (2 of 5) is
reasonable. Expect that area to be better defined over the next
36 hours. Have maintained the PoPs of 30-55% over the northern
half of the CWA.

.TUESDAY...

Heat headlines continue for areas south and east of Columbus
and Wayne for Tuesday, due to the warm overnight lows and heat
indices pushing near the century mark again. Confidence in the
dangerous heat is lower for Tuesday as the area will be on the
northwestern edge of the ridge and under brisk northwest mid-
level flow. Pattern recognition suggests a temperature forecast
prone to bust by ridge-riding waves, MCSs, or leftover cold
pools. If all goes according to plan, partly cloudy skies will
allow temps to soar once more before thunderstorms develop again
in the afternoon/evening (PoPs of 35-65) as moisture continues
to stream in from the south and instability will be easy to
produce.

.BEYOND...

Current forecast has Wednesday cooling a couple of degrees
before ridging reasserts its control over the Corn Belt for the
holiday weekend, driving high temps and heat indices to
dangerous levels once again. Predictability for severe weather
and rain chances will be mostly dependent on subtle shortwaves,
sfc boundaries, or influence from previous convection. I`m not
sure which days it will be, but additional days of heat
headlines are very likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

MVFR cigs have developed at the terminals this evening. Expect
them to clear from south to north overnight, clearing at KLNK
fairly quickly in the next hour or two. LLWS potential will be
greatly dependent on how well strong winds aloft can mix down to
the surface. We`re already seeing gusts to 22-23kt at KLNK so
have removed LLWS from KLNK as I expect it will keep gusting
overnight. KOFK has the best potential for seeing several hours
of LLWS until around 11Z when winds should be weakening at this
site. Expect gusty winds to persist through Sunday afternoon at
KOMA and KLNK, with gusts 20 to 25kt out of the south. Skies
become clear in the morning and stay mostly clear through the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-
     034-044-045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-
     055.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

952
FXUS63 KGID 280735
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
235 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with highs in the 90s to around 100
  degrees with heat index values in the mid 90s to mid 100s. A
  Heat Advisory is in effect 1-10pm today for eastern portions
  of the area.

- Hot and Humid conditions are expected to continue Monday
  through the end of the week. Highs and heat index values will
  generally be in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across
  portions of the area mainly during the evening-overnight hours
  Monday- Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Skies are mostly clear across the area this morning with
temperatures in the 70s. A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to
remain north of the area as it tracks along the NE-SD border early
this morning. Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow as
troughing deepens over the western U.S. and ridging sits over the
Midwest. Under this southwesterly flow the first in a series of hot
and humid days are expected for the area. Temperatures this
afternoon soar into the 90s, topping out around 100 degrees across
southern portions of the area. Dewpoints in the low 60s (west) to
around 70 degrees (east) combined with hot temperatures will result
in heat index values climbing into the 90s and 100s. A Heat Advisory
is in effect from 1pm-10pm today for areas that are expected to
experience the greatest overlap of hot temperatures and high
dewpoints (heat index values around 105 degrees). Southerly winds
gusting 20-30mph are possible today for areas in the Heat Advisory,
with lighter winds (5-15 mph) for areas north/west of the
advisory. Sunshine will be plentiful today with mostly sunny-
sunny skies.

Little to no relief from the heat is expected overnight with lows
for most areas only falling to the mid-upper 70s. Another hot and
humid day is in store for the area on Monday. Highs on Monday climb
into the 90s to around 100 degrees. Most areas look to fall short of
heat advisory criteria once again (heat index values in the 90s to
around 100). Far eastern portions of the area could be close to
needing an advisory, with that likely dependent on the dewpoints in
those areas/the degree of mixing. Will leave that decision to a
future shift to determine where exactly the edge of the highest heat
index values ends up. Regardless of a headline, it will be hot and
overall unpleasant across the entire forecast area.

Focus then turns to the potential for thunderstorms Monday
evening/night as shortwave traverses through the southwesterly flow
aloft. A surface front will stretch southwest to northeast across
central portions of the area Monday evening. While warm air
aloft/capping is likely to inhibit thunderstorm development, it is
possible that an isolated storm could develop along the front, most
likely north of I-80. Additionally, as the Low Level Jet strengthens
Monday evening/night it could also aid the development of
thunderstorms, though again capping makes the degree of thunderstorm
development uncertain. If storms do develop, the warm and humid
airmass would be supportive of them becoming strong/severe. The
primary concern with any strong/severe storm would be damaging wind
gusts. Areas outlined in the SPC day 2 marginal risk (I-80 and
north) have the overall highest chances to see a storm Monday
evening/night. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with hot and
humid conditions expected to continue through the end of the
forecast period. Highs and heat index values will generally be in
the 90s to around 100 degrees each day.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026


Temperatures this afternoon have made a considerable leap up to the
80s across areas that have seen some clearing within the low-level
stratus. The presence of breezy southeasterly winds have also helped
advect in the warmer and moist airmass today. This warming trend
will be expected to bleed into Sunday as mostly clear skies take
full advantage of diurnal heating in addition to the warm air
advecting winds.

Pattern-wise, the area rests underneath a building upper-level ridge
to the southeast (rising pressure) and an upper-level low passing
off to the northwest (falling pressure). These two features almost
balance one anther out, setting up the upper-level jet right across
the Northern Plains region. Though a few storms are expected to
develop underneath the northwest disturbance, storm trajectories
(tracks) will likely remain just outside (northwest) of the area
tonight.


The Main Story: The Heat Sunday into Next Week

As mentioned above, the main story for Sunday will be the heat.
Temperatures will continue to climb another 10-15 degrees with highs
peaking in the 90s to low 100s across the board thanks to mostly
clear skies. The best potential for temperatures to surpass 100
degrees will be for locations near and south of the state line
(primarily across a few north central Kansas locations). Heat index
values are expected to peak between 95 to 106 degrees, generally
increasing from west to east across the area. The highest heat index
values will be concentrated towards the east portions of the area as
that is where the higher humidity (dewpoints > 70 degrees) will be
expected to lie. A Heat advisory will be in effect between 1PM and
10PM Sunday for counties south and east of a line from Smith county
in Kansas up to Adams and over to Polk counties in Nebraska. Areas
within the Heat Advisory will have the best chance of seeing heat
index values in exceedance of 100 degrees.

The biggest and most recent change for the forecast for Sunday has
been the adjustment of where and when the strongest southerly wind
gusts will take place on Sunday. New guidance has revealed that the
gustiest winds will be more concentrated towards the southeast
during the daytime hours (15-30 MPH southerly wind gusts for areas
south and east of the Tri-Cities). Most of the northwest and central
portions of the forecast area will not see gusts >20MPH until the
evening to overnight period. The gustiest winds of the period (30-
35+MPH) will not come until the overnight hours. These gusty winds
will come as a deepening surface low across western Nebraska
compresses the surface pressure gradient Sunday night.

The full forecast area will fall under at least the Moderate (level 2
out of 4) heat risk classification with areas east of a line from
Nance to Franklin counties in Nebraska and all of our north central
Kansas counties included with the Major (level 3 out of 4) heat risk
classification. The Major heat-risk classification suggests that
any individual without adequate hydration or an effective cooling
source, may be susceptible to heat-related illnesses.


The Remainder of the Week...

Greater confidence now suggests that the heat will continue into
much of the rest of the week. Highs each day are currently forecast
to continue to range the upper 80s to low 100s every afternoon.
Though decreasing moisture content Monday "should" (not guaranteed)
keep heat index values below heat advisory criteria, the possibility
for further heat concerns could still return near the end of the
week.

As for precipitation chances, much of the week looks to be generally
dry, though a few thunderstorms may be possible across at least a
portion of the area Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights. The best
confidence for precipitation will come with the Tuesday night
activity (30-60% chances) with chances concentrated more across the
northeastern half of the area Monday night (25-50% chances). A few
of the storms on Monday night could become severe (Marginal risk of
severe weather for areas north of I-80), although the best severe
potential should mainly lie further north of the area. This mid-week
activity will come as the aforementioned Northwest U.S. trough
eventually swings across the Norther Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored through the period, and any lower
ceilings/vis should remain north and west of EAR/GRI.

LLWS is expected to continue through sunrise on Sunday, and will
return Sunday evening.

Surface winds decrease and become more variable during the
daytime hours on Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ049-063-064-075>077-085>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion