Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

881
FXUS63 KOAX 031721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system lifting out of northwest Kansas is still on
  track to bring showers and storms through 7 PM this evening,
  with the strongest of which being potentially severe (5-20%
  chance).

- As the system departs, areas of northeast Nebraska could see a
  few snowflakes mix in with snow through early Saturday, with
  no accumulations expected.

- Dry conditions set up Saturday evening through Monday morning.

- Another pattern shift brings additional better chances for
  precipitation to the region beginning Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a neutrally-tilting
trough continuing its push into the Central Plains and helping serve
as the catalyst storm potential today across southeast Nebraska into
much of Iowa. Surface observations show a primary surface low
situated over northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending east-
northeast from it across northeastern Missouri. Over the course of
the early afternoon, this surface low and an accompanying warm
sector will clip far southeast Nebraska and travel into southwest
Iowa. To the north of it, warm air advection powers light
precipitation and drizzle across much of eastern Nebraska into Iowa,
resulting in very light precipitation and visibilities as low as one
mile. Temperatures will remain cool and largely in the upper 30s to
low 40s for these areas, making for a dreary afternoon that misses
out on any rumbles of thunder.

Focusing on the severe threat to the south and east, short-term
model solutions all show southwest to northeast-oriented jet
streaks, with speeds that ramp up quickly from the surface to the
lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere before the reaching their peak. Low-
level curvature is quite favorable in hodographs, with the deep-
layer shear being largely in line with the boundaries/forcing for
ascent. Over the next two hours, areas just to the north of the
surface low will have the help of that feature in addition to the
warm air advection, helping kick start elevated parcels that could
result in some small to marginally severe hail during the early
afternoon hours, continuing north and to the east in stride with the
surface low. Closer the the surface low and in the warm sector, a
narrow window exists for surface-based storms to initiate in or move
through the forecast area. These storms could initiate either along
a prefrontal confluence boundary about one county to the east of the
synoptic cold front, or on the cold front itself. These will be the
storms to watch out for, and will be confined to areas southeast of
a line from Lewiston, NE to Nodaway, IA. All three conventional
severe hazards will be possible (hail, wind, and a tornado or two),
with the tornado chances being dependent on how uninterrupted a
storm can be in its process of intensifying.

With the warm sector quickly approaching, now through 7 PM is the
window for any strong to severe storms to occur. While some
convective activity is a near-certainty, there are a couple of
failure modes for storms trying to reach severe levels. The main
initiation point for storms in the CAMs favors the synoptic
cold/Pacific front, and those storms may not keep up with the
advancing front and shorten their lifespan. Another failure mode for
severe storm potential would be higher-end shear and mid-upper
dryness that could make for a hostile environment for what are
expected to be somewhat narrow updrafts. With all of that in mind,
the overall severe chances for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
is between 5-20%. Once 7 PM rolls around, the western edge of the
warm sector will have swept through, clearing out precipitation
aside from comma-head rain with a few snowflakes (that will melt)
across northeast Nebraska into the overnight hours.

Saturday and Beyond:

The remainder of the forecast sees that upper pattern transition the
trough to the east of the area, in favor of a split zonal flow
pattern through the entire upcoming work week. It will be gusty
tomorrow, with winds out of the northwest ramping up gusts to 35-40
mph before slowly decreasing in speed. The front half of the week
will be marked by largely dry weather, before a warmer day
Wednesday that will bring a shortwave trough and a transition
to wetter conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail into the evening hours as
patchy drizzle and light rain showers traverse eastern
Nebraska, primarily KOMA and KLNK. An uptick in thunderstorm
activity is expected across far eastern Nebraska into the
afternoon, with highest confidence in impacts at KOMA. A brief
thunderstorm may pass by KLNK in the 18-20Z timeframe.

Precipitation will gradually clear from west to east into the
early evening, along with a gradual increase in northerly winds.
Have opted to keep ceilings towards the lower end of guidance
this evening, with most locations improving only to MVFR
conditions. Brief returns to VFR conditions will be possible
this evening and overnight, though confidence is low in
widespread improvement to VFR conditions until Saturday
morning. Northwesterly wind gusts will increase to the 20-25 kt
range into Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

421
FXUS63 KGID 031741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog still possible this morning, mainly over
  portions of south central Nebraska.

- Increasing westerly winds behind a departing storm system will
  usher in drier air into W/SW portions of the area this
  afternoon, resulting in near critical to critical fire weather
  conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas
  for the afternoon into early evening hours.

- Best chances for measurable precip with today`s system will be
  mainly across northeastern portions of the local area. Little
  accumulation is expected.

- After a breezy and seasonably cool start to the weekend,
  temperatures will climb back above seasonal norms Sunday
  afternoon, which along with lighter winds, should make for a
  nice Easter Sunday across the local area.

- Precip chances return as early as Monday afternoon to parts of
  the local area with more widespread (and potentially
  beneficial) precipitation chances coming Wednesday/Thursday of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a potent storm system
spinning over the central Rockies, with diffluent SWrly upper
flow situated over the central Plains. This storm system will
eject E/ENE through the Plains and be the primary driver to
sensible weather today. At the surface, a lee low pressure is
analyzed near the CO/NE/KS border, with another low pressure
area near/NW the Black Hills...connected to each other by an
occluded front. Erly, upslope flow has established across the
local area early this morning, which combined with returning
moisture/stratus that temporarily shifted E/NE of the area,
could lead to some fairly widespread, and potentially dense, fog
this morning. Areas of south central Nebraska look to be the
most impacted. So far, this moisture is remaining as mostly very
low stratus, but recent HRRR runs remain adamant this will
build down lower into some fog. We`ll see how the next few hours
evolve - think it could go either way. General setup (E/upslope
flow, good crossover temps, and recent moisture) favor fog, but
sometimes it just remains as a LIFR cloud deck.

Within the stratus, could see some scattered drizzle and/or
light rain showers blossom later this morning as lift increases
ahead of aforementioned ejecting trough. Still think the brunt
of significant and/or widespread accumulating moisture will
remain primarily N/NE of the local forecast area, with only a
trace to a few hundredths..."heaviest" N/NE of the Tri-Cities.

Finally, this afternoon...expect decreasing clouds and
increasing winds - esp. W/SW of the Tri-Cities - on the backside
of the departing low pressure system, which should enable some
late-day warming. See Fire Weather Section below for more
details on the potential for critical to near- critical fire
weather conditions for portions of the forecast area this
afternoon into early evening.

Not much new to speak to in the extended. Easter Sunday will be
a bit chilly in the morning with temperatures starting out in
the 30s. However, midday through early evening should be fairly
pleasant with seasonably modest winds (5-15 G20 MPH) and
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The upper level low that impacted the area overnight can be see
on satellite tracking across Iowa this afternoon with the next
upper low upstream of the local area spinning near northwestern
Wyoming. In between these 2 systems, clearing skies are
gradually making their way across the local forecast area.

As skies clear across the area this evening, winds diminish and
become more southeasterly, could see some fog development across
mainly our Nebraska counties overnight. The HRRR has been very
consistent all day indicating dense fog across much of the state
during the overnight hours, but while winds do shift and become
more favorable for fog development, they remain 10-15 MPH,
which isn`t exactly ideal. As a result, introduced some patchy
fog to the forecast through the morning commute Friday, but did
not completely buy into the HRRR and mention more widespread or
dense fog.

Expect the upper level low to our northwest to reach the
panhandle of Nebraska by mid-day Friday, with the associated
cold front ahead of it rapidly tracking across the local area
and bring a shift in winds during the morning hours. Could see
some light post frontal precip across areas mainly north and
east of the Nebraska Tri-Cities through around midday, as the
upper level low eventually lifts east northeast across South
Dakota during the afternoon and evening hours. While some very
small pops were retained mainly north of Highway 92 as the upper
level low passes by later in the day, the track of the upper
level low has trended further north, and confidence of any
precip with the low itself is low.

Dry and mostly sunny weather then returns over the holiday
weekend, but with a windy start to the weekend on Saturday
combined with dry conditions across our western most counties,
could see a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. Sunday,
however, looks like really nice Easter, with lighter winds and
the return of above normal afternoon temperatures across the
local area.

With a fairly progressive northwestelry flow pattern across the
local area aloft to start next week, expect multiple quick
passing disturbances to brush the local area, and because of
this, extended guidance is suggesting a return of precip as
early as Monday afternoon. While a stray passing shower cannot
be completely ruled out, think there are many more chances for
precip early next week than eventually will be realized...with
the best chance for more widespread and beneficial precip likely
not returning until the middle to latter portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to continue into the afternoon
hours with VFR expected by 21z. Another brief period around 06z
of MVFR ceilings is expected. Winds will generally range from
the northeast to northwest with winds increasing out of the
northwest around 15z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Have issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and early
evening for areas roughly along and W of a line from Lexington
to Alma to Phillipsburg and Plainville. No issues this morning
with cool and somewhat damp conditions on steady easterly low
level flow. However, this afternoon, expect winds to turn to the
NW then W and steadily increase as mixing depth increases...with
gusts peaking around 25-35 MPH. The NW/W flow will usher in
drier air and allow for decreasing clouds, warming temperatures,
and RHs falling into the teens to low 20s for areas along and
esp. W of Hwy 183. Fortunately, it will be a relatively narrow
window in time and space (effective time for the RFW is probably
a bit "generous") for the combination of low RH and gusty
winds...and there will be at least some resistance to the fuels
initially given the damp AM conditions. However, considering
these areas are well within severe drought and received
considerably less moisture than areas further E/NE, felt prudent
to go ahead and err on notion that fine fuels will become
receptive this afternoon given the combination of increasing sun
and wind and falling RHs.

Will likely see the seasonably-typical, generally minor, daily
instances of near-critical conditions in esp our SW zones
nearly each afternoon this weekend into early next week.
However, no one particular day looks overly concerning at this
time with generally "seasonable" winds for spring/April and only
modest RH drops forecast at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-072-
     082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion