86°F
Updated:
7/6/2026
2:50:00pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
854 FXUS63 KOAX 061650 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday with dry conditions. - Thunderstorm chances return to northeast Nebraska late Tuesday night, with better chances across the region Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. - A prolonged period of hot and humid weather is expected starting this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Quiet weather today with eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa settled under a southwestern lobe of high pressure stemming from a broader anticyclone over eastern Canada. Skies are mostly clear and temperatures are seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across our area. The upper-level pattern shows a ridge building northeastward out of the Four Corners region, while troughing over the Lower-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys leads to storms over the East Coast and Southeast. High pressure and the building ridge generating subsidence over our area will inhibit any storm activity today and tomorrow. The surface high keeps the low-level jet to our west, forcing any overnight storm activity north and west of our area. Temperatures will stay warm into midweek with a very gradual warming trend. Expect another chance for patchy, shallow fog development overnight tonight into early Tuesday with light winds and humid conditions. Storms will not be kept at bay too long, though. The ridge breaks down late Tuesday into Wednesday, creating more zonal flow across our area and forcing the surface high back east. This will bring the low-level jet back into eastern Nebraska, advecting moisture back up from the Gulf. With this in place, shortwaves will again generate periods of showers and storms, starting late Tuesday into early Wednesday and repeating the evening and overnight periods Wednesday night and Thursday night. We`ll also see an increase in humidity with dew points rising back into the low 70s. This will bring max heat indices back up into the mid-to-upper 90s on Wednesday. Wednesday night storms will bring a frontal boundary south for Thursday, oriented west to east across our area. Milder, drier conditions will be expected north of this boundary, while hot and humid conditions persist to the south. This boundary will act as a focus for additional showers and storm chances Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Storms Thursday night into early Friday bring the boundary farther south potentially as far south as northeast Kansas. As this occurs, a more longwave trough shifts east into our area providing forcing for showers and storm chances through much of the day on Friday. These both combine for a milder day with occasional shower and storm chances. Highs on Friday generally only get up into the mid 80s. Milder weather doesn`t last for long, though, as long-range guidance is in good agreement on a strong ridge building over the Rockies going into the weekend and shifting eastward over our area Sunday into Monday. This likely brings back dangerously hot and humid conditions with heat indices rising back above 100 degrees starting Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Clear skies today with winds out of the south or southeast. Light winds again tonight could promote chances for more areas of fog development, especially near river and creeks and over agricultural fields. Confidence is low in any significant fog development at the terminals, with only a 20% chance of fog lowering vis below 4SM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
394 FXUS63 KGID 061738 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably warm today and Tuesday. - Good chances (50 to 70%) for thunderstorms return Wednesday and Thursday. - A drier and hotter pattern returns for the weekend and lasts into the following week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Overall changes are minimal from previous forecasts. Today and Tuesday feature high temperatures in the low 90s for most areas as surface winds return to the south/southeast. Afternoon gusts range from 15-30 MPH (highest west). Confidence remains high in dry conditions through at least Tuesday evening. There is still a low chance for a few thunderstorms to sneak in from the northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but ensembles have trended drier for this period as compared to 24 hours ago. An upper shortwave and surface frontal system will bring better chances for rain and thunderstorms to the entire area on Wednesday. These chances continue Thursday, but would favor western portions of the area more than the east. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but convective details remain uncertain at this range. Overall, Friday has trended drier for most of the area, and this dry trend looks to continue into the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the west/central US. This will also be favorable for well-above-normal temperatures (highs in the upper 90s and 100s) at times through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The first part of the work-week is seasonal and dry. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Upper ridging will build in to the Central Plains from the Four Corners region for the first half of the work-week. A strong disturbance moving atop the ridge will break it down and upper level flow will become more zonal by midweek. The return to more zonal type flow will allow for an increase precipitation chances for the second half of the work-week. Lee troughing will cause a front to develop across the high plains. Model ensemble guidance indicates that the next upper wave will approach the area on Wednesday with the best precipitation potential (40-60% chance) on Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. The potential for precipitation exists for Thursday and Friday, but with less confidence. Thursday the best chances for precipitation look to be along the High Plains sliding southeast into Kansas with a 25-50% chance for central, south central and north central Kansas. It will depend on where an upper level disturbance tracks across the Central Plains. By Friday the potential for precipitation is closer to 20% for the area as the upper disturbance moves off to the east. As this occurs, ridging builds into the west. During the second half of the work week, temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, which is near to slightly below normal for early/mid July. Moving into the end of the forecast period, next weekend, and beyond. Much of the model guidance including the ensemble guidance indicates a potentially significant heat wave. This is due to a high amplitude ridge building into the intermountain west. Ensemble mean Maximum Temperatures move close to the triple digit mark, especially as we move into the next work-week. Details will change, but current grand ensemble values show 20% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday the 13th, and 40% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on the 14th. This period is something to watch for extreme heat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Quiet forecast period with VFR conditions throughout. SSE winds and scattered diurnal cumulus have developed across the area, with occasional wind gusts up to 20kts possible at KEAR this afternoon. Tonight, winds are expected to retreat under clear skies. SSW winds are expected to pick back up again tomorrow afternoon, with gusts near 20 kts possible. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Scott
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