Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

427
FXUS63 KOAX 231739
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1239 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with highs reaching the
  upper 80s to low 90s by Monday.

- Widely scattered showers and storms are possible through the
  holiday weekend, with a strong storm or two possible Sunday.
  Dry periods will outnumber wet ones.

- Periodic precipitation chances continue Tuesday through the
  remainder of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Saturday through Monday...

A mid-level low pivoting across the northern Plains this evening
pushed a cold front eastward through the area. A broken line of
thunderstorms developed along the front, with a few stronger
embedded cores. Storms will continue moving east and should exit the
area shortly after midnight.

Surface high pressure briefly slides across the region Saturday as
mid-level ridging builds into the central and southern Plains,
bringing a warming trend through the holiday weekend. Highs are
expected to reach the mid 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, and
upper 80s to low 90s Monday. Mostly dry conditions will prevail,
though low-end, near-daily shower and storm chances remain possible
as weak waves pass through the region.

The first chance arrives Saturday evening, mainly across northeast
Nebraska where a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Weak
shear and modest instability should limit storm organization.
Chances increase slightly Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak
surface trough moves near the NE/SD border. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
and bulk shear near 30 kts may support a strong storm or two, with
the best chances across northeast NE into southwest IA. Damaging
wind gusts (up to 65 mph) and hail (up to 1 inch) are the primary
hazards. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this
area. Additional widely scattered showers or storms will be possible
Monday as temperatures warm (likely to convective temperatures) and
instability increases, though weak shear and limited forcing should
keep the chance limited. Overall, dry periods will greatly outweigh
wet ones through the holiday weekend, but those with outdoor plans
should stay weather aware.

Tuesday and Beyond...

A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move onshore across the
western CONUS early next week and slowly deepen as it shifts
eastward. Moisture return will increase ahead of this system, with
highs generally in the low 80s through much of the work week.

Periodic precipitation chances return late Tuesday and continue
through the remainder of the workweek as several weak disturbances
move through the region. PoPs generally range from 20-50%, though
timing and locations will likely be refined as guidance better
resolves each wave. No particular day stands out for severe weather
at this time, as instability appears modest and stronger
shear/forcing look displaces from the area. GEFS and EPS machine-
learning guidance also keep the better severe probabilities focused
to our south and west. A shift in disturbance tracks could change
this, but for now, the severe weather signal remains limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026


KOFK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Expect
westerly winds to become southwesterly by 20Z and southerly by
04Z as a weak disturbance pushes in. A few scattered rain
showers may be possible after 00Z, but confidence in locations
remain fairly low (15-20%) at this time. Rain chances will clear
up by 04Z, with dry conditions and clearing skies expected for
the erst of the period.

KOMA/KLNK: VFR conditions persist through the period at the
terminals. Northwest winds remain light through the afternoon,
beginning to turn to the west-southwest by 20Z. Winds become
southerly by 00Z at KLNK and 02Z at KOMA. Dry conditions are
expected through the period, although there may be a few
showers/storms to the northwest of the terminals after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

803
FXUS63 KGID 231838
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
138 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across
  the area between 5pm and 11pm. Severe weather is not expected,
  but small hail and wind gusts near 50 MPH may be possible with
  the strongest storms.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday evening. A few storms could become strong to severe
  with gusts near 60 MPH and hail up to the size of golf balls.

- There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms again Monday
  evening. Chances for thunderstorms then increase Wednesday
  through Friday. Some severe storms cannot be ruled out, but
  widespread or significant severe weather appears unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Diurnally-driven cumulus is bubbling over the western 2/3rds of
Nebraska and down into NW Kansas. This is expected to continue
to develop this afternoon and move across the area this evening
as high-based showers and thunderstorms. Currently, shear is
pretty lackluster, but is expected to increase into the evening
hours, which will potentially allow storms to coalesce into one
or more line segments. Instability falls off quickly into
central Nebraska/Kansas, therefore severe weather remains
unlikely. Nevertheless, these high-based showers/storms could
produce some gusty winds this evening (evidenced on HRRR gust
output) and perhaps some small hail in the strongest updrafts.

Sunday will trend noticably warmer than today as the upper
trough moves out of the northern Plains and we see stronger
southerly winds at the surface. Widespread highs in the 80s are
expected, with some locations in southwest parts of the area
making a run at 90 degrees. Thunderstorms are again expected to
develop and move west-east across the area in the late
afternoon and evening. But, unlike today, convective parameters
are more favorable for a few storms to become severe. MLCAPE on
the order of 1500-2000 J/kg combined with deep-layer shear of
30-35kt would support a severe hail threat, and possibly a few
severe wind gusts as well. Nearly the entire area is now in a
"Marginal" (level 1 of 5) severe risk area.

Overall, Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday, but the
thunderstorm potential is more uncertain and likely to be more
isolated. Therefore, SPC has not introduced a severe outlook.

A deep upper low is forecast to move into the western CONUS,
which will eventually bring more widespread rain/thunderstorm
chances to the area Wednesday-Saturday. Unfortunately, the
evolution of this system is rather uncertain and therefore
details on timing are hard to pin down at the moment. At this
time, the overall severe risk doesn`t look particularly
concerning, especially for late May The GEFS CSU-MLP severe
probs remain less than 5% each day through Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored through the period. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected to move through central
Nebraska this evening, therefore the PROB30 group was maintained
to account for this potential.

SSW winds turn more southerly this evening into tonight,
although the direction could be briefly impacted by outflow from
any thunderstorms that develop. Stronger SSW winds then develop
for Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion