Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

980
FXUS63 KOAX 260517
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues Sunday, with peak heat index values
  of 110 to 118 degrees expected.

- Extreme heat remains possible Monday, especially across
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, where heat index values
  couch reach 110 to 115 degrees.

- A few strong storms may develop Sunday evening, mainly across
  northeast Nebraska, with damaging winds the primary threat.
  Additional storms are possible Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Tonight and Sunday...

Earlier this evening, an MCS tracked across southeast South Dakota,
grazing extreme northeast Nebraska before gradually weakening and
moving east-southeast into western Iowa. The decaying complex will
leave a shield of mid- to upper-level cloud cover across much of the
area overnight. We could also see some patchy fog overnight in
southwest Iowa where RH values will be the highest. Temperatures and
humidity exceeded most guidance today. Widespread highs reached the
upper 90s to lower 100s, while dewpoints remained in the upper 70s
to low 80s, higher than forecast by most guidance. This resulted in
widespread heat index values of 115 to 120 degrees. Given this
overperformance, the entire forecast area was upgraded to an Extreme
Heat Warning this afternoon, which will remain in effect into Sunday
evening.

Sunday is shaping up to be another dangerously hot day as the region
remains beneath a mid- to upper-level ridge covering much of the
central Plains. Lingering cloud cover is expected to diminish during
the morning, allowing strong mixing into the warm air aloft.
Temperatures may once again over perform guidance, with highs
forecast in the upper 90s to low 100s and dewpoints remaining in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Peak heat index values of 110 to 118
degrees are expected. Southerly winds will also increase during
the afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph, though this will
provide little relief from the extreme heat.

Another chance for storms will arrive Sunday evening near a surface
trough. Strong instability will develop during the day, with MLCAPE
values exceeding 2500 J/kg. However, deep-layer shear and large-
scale forcing for ascent will remain modest, and CAM guidance
continues to offer varying solutions regarding storm coverage and
whether initiation will occur at all in the area. Should storms
develop, the greatest chance will be across northeast Nebraska
into western Iowa during the evening, where PoPs of 15-30% are
in place. Activity would then gradually move southeastward and
weaken. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, with
DCAPE values of 1500-1800 J/kg supporting the potential for
gusts up to 75 mph. Hail up to around 1 inch in diameter cannot
be ruled out initially, though the very warm near surface air
should limit hail from reaching the ground. Any lingering
showers and cloud cover will shift southward into early Monday.

Monday...

Dangerous heat will continue into Monday, though confidence is lower
regarding its overall extent. In addition to any lingering
convective debris or cloud cover, a shortwave disturbance rounding
the ridge across the northern Plains will push a cold front
southward through the area. This will shift low-level winds from
southerly to northeasterly and cut off moisture transport. The front
will have only a limited effect on temperatures, with highs still
expected in the mid 90s to low 100s, assuming residual cloud cover
clears. However, it should lower dewpoints, particularly across
northeast Nebraska where the frontal passage is expected before peak
heating. This will produce a considerable dewpoint gradient, ranging
from the upper 70s across southwest Iowa to the lower 60s across
northeast Nebraska.

Peak heat index values may reach around 115 degrees across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, decreasing to near 100 degrees across
northeast Nebraska. Given the lower confidence in cloud cover and
frontal timing, areas generally along and south of Interstate-80
remain split between a Heat Advisory and an Extreme Heat Watch with
no headlines currently in place northward. A few evening storms
could also develop along the front across the southern portion of
the area, with a 15-30% chance currently in place. Model
soundings indicate plenty of instability, yet again, with a
profile supportive of strong wind gusts.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The aforementioned shortwave disturbance will weaken the ridge into
the work week, with a somewhat more comfortable post-frontal air
mass settling into the region. High temperatures should fall into
the low to mid 90s for much of the work week, remaining slightly
above seasonal norms.

Additional shortwave disturbances rounding the ridge will bring
periodic precipitation chances through the period, with the greatest
potential currently forecast Thursday into Friday, with PoPs of 40-
60% in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Cloud remnants from a decaying storm complex have approached
terminals early this morning. However, expecting this to remain
in VFR and should see VFR conditions prevail for the rest of
the cycle. A few stray showers could impact KOFK after 06z today,
but chances remain less than 15% at this time. Outflow from the
storms will switch winds within the next hour to the north
northeast and north northwest at KOFK and KOMA, respectively but
remain less than 12 kts. By the noon hour, should see winds
ramp up from the south with gusts of 20 to 25 kts at terminals
before subsiding after 01z at most locations. More storms may
develop after 00z Monday and impact KOFK/KOMA, but chances
remain less than 20% at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Watch from this evening through Monday evening
     for NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from this evening through Monday evening
     for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

302
FXUS63 KGID 260028
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
728 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...Updates to Key Messages, Short Term and Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After watching heat index "overachieve" today and given
  another round of at least 105-115 heat index expected Sunday,
  our entire forecast area has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat
  Warning valid through 9 PM Sunday.

- With Monday not looking quite as concerningly-hot, a Heat
  Advisory "takes back over" valid 9 PM Sunday-10 PM Monday.

- There is a low chance of storms (around 15%) for Sunday
  evening mainly in our Nebraska counties north of I-80 and/or
  west of Highway 281. A strong to marginally-severe storm
  cannot be ruled out...main threat is wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

- A somewhat better chance for at least scattered storms arrives
  mainly Monday afternoon-overnight...again a strong to
  marginally-severe storm is possible especially in our west.

- Closer to normal high temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) are
  expected Tuesday through Friday with various, intermittent rain
  and storm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

-- Regarding the UPGRADE from Heat Advisory to Extreme Heat
 Warning (valid through 9 PM Sunday) that occurred late this
 afternoon:

- Quite honestly, our heat index forecast for this afternoon
  ended up being a solid 5-15 degrees too low, with the majority
  of our CWA seeing at least a few hours of Warning-criteria
  values 110-120 (this is semi-rare territory for our area!).

- This was a classic case of essentially all available
  models/guidance failing to forecast high enough dewpoints...a
  common struggle this time of year when evapotranspiration
  from crops is peaking.

- Given this extreme heat lingering into early evening, limited
  overnight relief due to low temps holding up well into the
  70s, and most importantly another round of widespread 105-115
  heat index expected Sunday, it was decided along with a few
  neighboring offices to upgrade the Advisory to Warning
  effectively immediately and valid through 9 PM Sunday.

- Thereafter, a Heat Advisory "takes back over" from 9 PM Sunday
  through 10 PM Monday, as current expectations are for Monday
  to have lower potential for heat index to exceed 110 degrees,
  and MIGHT even struggle to reach 105 (especially in our north
  half) depending on possible weak convection in the area,
  associated clouds/outflow etc.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

An upper level ridge extends from Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas
northward to Kansas and Nebraska. Winds across north central Kansas
and south central and central Nebraska are mostly light and
variable. Winds are lighter than expected but may increase some out
of the south later this afternoon. Low-level moisture is hanging
around the area longer than expected today (with very little wind to
mix in drier air) with dewpoints mostly in the 70s and 80s. High
temperatures today are expected to reach the mid 90s to low triple
digits. These conditions have resulted in heat index values across
the area generally ranging from around 105 to near 120 degrees! A
Heat Advisory is in effect for the whole area and continues into
Monday evening. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
70s with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s. There is some
concern that dewpoint temperatures will be higher than what is
currently in the forecast, especially if drier air doesn`t move into
the area. This may lead to fog development as temperatures cool.
Winds will be fairly light (mainly between 5 to 10 MPH but may be
closer to 5 MPH) out of the south. These overnight conditions will
result in limited relief from the heat. If moisture is higher than
expected tonight, overnight lows may also be higher than what is in
the forecast.

The upper ridge will be more centered over the region on Sunday.
Winds will be a little stronger than the previous day Sunday
afternoon (southerly around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to around 25
MPH). Sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present. Temperatures
Sunday afternoon are expected to heat up to the mid/upper 90s to
around 105 degrees. The amount of moisture that will be present for
Sunday is still somewhat uncertain with the models not in agreement.
Based on the moisture hanging around longer than expected today,
tend to think that moisture values will be on the higher end.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly hotter than
today. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for Sunday. Low
temperatures for Sunday night will likely be slightly warmer than
the previous night with some isolated areas in north central Kansas
perhaps with lows around 80 degrees. There is a very slight (15% to
near 20% chance) of showers and storms Sunday evening across
northern portions of the area (mainly north of I-80). There is some
model disagreement on where these storms will occur but the main
risk with these storms will be wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Monday has the potential to be the hottest day but there is also a
lot of uncertainty with regards to temperature and moisture.
Generally expecting high temperatures to range from 97 to 103
degrees. Some of the hotter models have temperatures ranging from
around 105 to 110+ degrees! Tend to think these hotter temperatures
are not likely with a weak cold front with easterly winds expected
to begin moving into the area on Monday. The Heat Advisory ends at
10 PM Monday evening. Beginning Monday evening and continuing into
Friday, there are various chances of showers and storms across
portions of the area as shortwaves troughs move overhead. High
temperatures will be cooler beginning Tuesday with the arrival of a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Although cannot rule out visibility trying to at least briefly
drop to low-end VFR/maybe high-end MVFR anytime between 08-14Z
in light fog, this is otherwise a very high confidence VFR
forecast (along with dry weather), with only varying amounts of
passing mid-high level clouds. Given the aforementioned
potential for light fog, opted to "hint" with a low-end VFR
"6SM BR" visibility group early Sunday morning.

Winds will not be a significant issue as prevailing direction
remains southerly. However, Sunday afternoon will be a bit
breezier than today was, with sustained speeds commonly
10-14KT/gusts up to around 20KT. Prior to then, sustained speeds
this evening through Sunday morning will prevail under 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion