Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

873
FXUS63 KOAX 221720
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with 35 to 40 mph gusts
  expected this morning, before tapering off in the evening
  hours. Areas of very high fire danger persist over eastern
  Nebraska and southwest Iowa today.

- Cooler today with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Warming trend returns for Monday through Thursday, with fire
  weather concerns expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

04z GOES-19 nighttime microphysics shows a few high based clouds
approaching the area from the west. Temperatures remain rather warm
at this hour with most locations in the upper 60s and low 70s. 04z
METARs show a sfc cold front quickly approaching the area from the
north, with its location approximately located along a line from
near Storm Lake, Iowa toward Sioux City, Iowa, to Valentine,
Nebraska. As the front pushes further south into the forecast area,
should see strong cold advection result in temps plummeting to 40s
to low 50s for most locations.

The strong subsidence from the cold air should help push down to the
sfc a relatively narrow 30-35kt corridor of momentum from near H9
and H8. This will result in gusty northerly wind gusts of 35 to 40
mph near and behind the frontal boundary early this morning. While
relative humidity is expected to improve to 30 to 50% near and
behind the front, the extremely dry and cured fuels will still lead
to some fire weather concerns through at least the early morning
hours, so have continued the Red Flag Warning through 4am. Expect
dry conditions during the frontal passage with only low to mid level
cloudiness.

Winds will remain gusty through the late morning hours as we`ll
still have cold advection/subsidence helping bring down the narrow
corridor of low level winds. Despite relative humidity in the mid
60% range, areas southwest of a line from near Seward to Hickman to
Nemaha may flirt with Red Flag Warning criteria for a 2 to 3 hr
duration after 15z given the northwest gusts of 35 to 40 mph over
the area coupled with the extremely dry fuels. It`s worth noting
that the cloud cover over the area could hamper the amount of mixing
we achieve. Regardless, still expect areas of very high fire
danger in eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa for today. Highs
will be noticeably cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds
largely subside after 7pm and lows cool to the upper 20s to low
30s.

Late Sunday into Monday, a shortwave trof will approach the area
from the west. This feature will try to generate some light rain
showers over the area Monday morning into the afternoon, but BUFKIT
soundings show very little if any low level saturation below 3km so
not really thinking much of this will reach the sfc. Have kept low
NBM PoPs of only 15 to 25% for light rain Monday afternoon mainly
northwest of a line from near Malcom to Decatur. Highs Monday reach
the mid 50s under mostly cloudy skies, while lows cool to the mid
30s.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Another warming trend is expected to take place Tuesday through
Thursday as the 1000-500 mb thermal ridge once again builds into the
region. Expect highs to reach the 60s and 70s Tuesday, mid 70s
to low 80s Wednesday, and slightly cooler temps for Thursday.
The combination of dry and warm weather will lead to fire
weather concerns, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday
appears to be the day with most concern as northerly winds of 20
to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph overspread much of the
forecast area as a sfc front pushes through.

Global models suggest another H5 disturbance entering the area late
Thursday into Friday morning resulting in 20 to 40% chance for a
rain/snow mix. Temperatures for Friday remain in the 50s and warm to
near 60F by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

MVFR ceilings this morning are quickly eroding this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals shortly and these
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast.
Gusty north winds behind this morning`s cold front continue, but
these winds will gradually weaken through this afternoon. Winds
are expected to become light tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

601
FXUS63 KGID 221812
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
112 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery north winds will continue especially into the first
  part of this afternoon, with some gusts of 40+ MPH still
  possible through around 2-3 PM.

- Notably cooler temperatures area expected for today. Following
  Saturday`s record-breaking highs in the 90s, highs today are
  closer to normal in the mid 50s to low-mid 60s.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible this
  afternoon, gusty north winds continue through the day, with
  relative humidity values are currently forecast to bottom out
  in the 25-30 percent range. Critical levels are at/below 20
  percent, so decided to hold off on issuing a Red Flag
  Warning...but will be monitoring trends closely this morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently...

Conditions continue to be dry across the area tonight...main
concern  remains with the passage of a cold front currently
working its way south toward the forecast area. Looking at the
upper levels, flow has transitioned to more zonal in nature
across the region, thanks to shortwave disturbances passing
through the Pac NW/Nrn Rockies...satellite imagery showing more
upper level clouds bringing partly cloudy skies. A strong
surface cold front continues to work its way south through
NE...and is expected to push through the entire forecast area by
sunrise. An abrupt switch in winds to the north will accompany
this front...as will the potential for gusts exceeding 45 MPH. A
few gusts closer to 55 MPH are not out of the question. No
changes made to the Red Flag Warning, which runs through
4AM...relative humidity values are expected to rise with cooler
air behind the front.

Rest of today...

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast...with the
main stories being with the much cooler temps and continued
gusty winds. Models remain in good agreement showing the overall
strongest winds/gusts will be with the initial passage of the
cold front and linger through the first half of the day...with
things gradually tapering off from north to south through the
afternoon hours. After record-breaking heat on Saturday with
highs in the 90s...much cooler highs are forecast for today, and
they`re actually just closer to normal for this time of year.
Highs are forecast to top out in the mid-upper 50s across most
of south central NE, with low-mid 60s near/south of the NE/KS
state line. The cooler temperatures are currently forecast to
help keep relative humidity values from dropping to critical
fire weather levels this afternoon (at/below 20 percent)...but
with the continued dry air mass and gusty winds, near- critical
conditions will be possible for especially the southern half of
the forecast area...where forecast relative humidity values
dropping to 25 to 30 MPH will be possible. With the current
forecast looking to be on the warmer/drier side of things and
not resulting in critical levels, decided to hold off on issuing
a Red Flag Warning at this point...but will be monitoring
obs/model trends closely this morning.

Tonight into Monday...

Not expecting any notable changes in the upper level pattern
through Monday, with models remaining in good agreement
showing continued generally zonal flow across the region. Models
continue to show the potential for a weak upper level shortwave
disturbance to move out onto the Central Plains late tonight
into the day on Monday...bringing the potential for rain to the
forecast area. At this point, the best chances look to mainly be
across south central NE...but models still have some
differences with the coverage of activity, so chances remain low
around 20-30 percent. Unfortunately, these chances also don`t
look to bring notable amounts.

Surface high pressure passing through the area tonight brings
light and at times variable winds...eventually turning
southerly as the high moves east and low pressure deepens over
the High Plains. This will bring increasing SSErly winds during
the day on Monday, especially to the western half of the
forecast area, where gusts of 20-30 MPH will be possible. With
high temperatures again in the mid 50s-low 60s and a continued
dry air mass...the potential will again be there for at least
near-critical fire weather conditions to develop during the
afternoon hours...mainly west of HWY 281. Confidence in the
forecast temps/dpts suffers some due to the uncertainties with
how these precipitation chances evolve...more clouds/showers
would keep temps down.

Tuesday on through the end of the week...

Forecast dries back out for the middle portion of the week
Tuesday-Wednesday...with models showing upper level ridging
working to build its way back north. This brings warming
temperatures...with Tuesday highs back in the 70s and Wednesday
highs in the 80s. The latter portion of the work week into the
weekend looks to bring a return to more zonal flow as additional
upper level disturbances break down the ridging...and bringing
some spotty low-end precip chances to the forecast. Plenty of
detail to work out between models with those chances. The
weakened ridging will bring cooler temps to the area, with highs
Thursday in the 60s-70s and Friday in the 50s...before
rebounding back through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- From a personal standpoint, this 19-year "veteran" of NWS
  Hastings continues to be in awe of today`s
  historic/unseasonable very-early-spring heat! As already
  mentioned above (and more detail in the separate climate
  section below), it`s one thing to shatter heat records for the
  CURRENT MONTH in the spring, but to also at least match heat
  records for the FOLLOWING MONTH is a true rarity.

- As for 7-day forecast changes versus our previous (early-AM)
  forecast issuance, honestly nothing notable to speak of. Day-
  to-day high/low temps were only nudged upward or downward a
  few degrees at most, and unfortunately the vast majority of
  the next week appears dry (only limited/spotty/light precip
  chances both Monday and again late in the week). Peeking
  slightly beyond the 7-day, there is at least limited hope that
  at least a slightly more active precipitation pattern could
  "kick in" around-and-beyond March 30th, also accompanied by
  some increase in low-level moisture and resultant increases in
  relative humidity/some decrease of the fire weather threat. We
  can only hope.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 28)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Although today`s record/historic heat is fascinating to witness
from a purely meteorological perspective (high temps likely to
end up 95-99 most areas), the combo of the heat and unusually
low relative humidity (single digits nearly all areas), along
with breezy (fortunately not OVERLY- windy) west- southwest
winds, has unfortunately manifested in a dangerous fire weather
setup. More fire weather details will from this point forward be
discussed in the separate Fire Weather section below, but as of
this writing our satellite data has detected a few smaller fire
hotspots in Osborne/Hamilton counties, with both
satellite/radar confirming a noticeable flare-up within the
expansive Cottonwood Fire area along the Dawson/Lincoln County
line.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term
model data confirm our region`s considerable influence from an
incredibly strong ridge of high pressure (around 589 decameter
height at 500 millibars) spinning clockwise and centered over
the AZ/NM/MX border area. Under only a very limited amount of
passing thin/high cirrus clouds, our Central Plains region
resides under west-northwesterly flow along the northeastern
periphery of this ridge.

At the surface, impressive/deep diurnal mixing up to around 600
millibars has allowed winds to (if anything) turn a little more
westerly (versus southerly) than expected, with sustained speeds
commonly 15-20+ MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH this afternoon,
only contributing to the big warm-up and fire weather concerns.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Fortunately, the aforementioned very deep mixing will really
decrease by around/especially after 7 PM, allowing winds to
decrease and turn more southerly (versus westerly) this evening.
However, after sunset there will be a modest/secondary increase
in south-southwesterly winds, as mixing into a strong low-level
jet brings back some gusts of 20+ MPH.

However, the "big story" of the overnight hours arrives later
(between midnight and sunrise Sunday), as a strong cold front
steadily blasts southward through our CWA from north-to-
south...entering our far northern counties 1-3 AM, and
eventually clearing our far southern (KS) counties 5-7 AM. In
its wake, all areas will experience at least a 2-3 hour "blast"
of fairly strong northerly winds, commonly sustained 25-35 MPH
and gusting at least 40-50 MPH. At least limited coverage of
brief, marginally-severe gusts of 55-60 MPH is certainly
possible, but confidence in meeting/exceeding official severe
criteria of 58+MPH is currently too low to justify a formal High
Wind Warning (this bears close watching though). This will be a
dry frontal passage, and also bring steadily-cooler temps.
Overnight low temps (likely not reached until 8-9 AM) are aimed
low 40s northwest...to upper 40s-low 50s southeast.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Despite highs being 30-35 degrees COOLER THAN TODAY, they will
still be above-normal for late March! If anything, these highs
were nudged down very slightly, now aimed upper 50s-low 60s in
Nebraska...to mainly mid-60s in Kansas. Wind-wise, the day will
start out rather windy (especially in the morning), but then see
a slow/gradual decreasing trend during the afternoon. For the
day as a whole though, sustained northerly speeds at least 20-30
MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH will be common (up to around 40 MPH in the
morning).

Sunday evening-overnight, winds become light as they eventually
trend more east-southeasterly in the presence of surface high
pressure. Although clouds will be on the increase and some
spotty light rain could start to enter our far southwestern CWA
close to sunrise, this will almost surely be the overall-
chilliest night of the next week, with lows bottoming out 30-35
most areas.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
Although most places will be lucky to pick up anything more than
a hundredth or two, chances for at least spotty light rain
showers have increased versus 24 hours ago as a weak/moisture
starved shortwave zips through the Central Plains (for now
measurable chances/PoPs are only 20-30% at most). Otherwise, the
main story during the day will be gradually-increasing south-
southeasterly breezes...overall strongest in our western half
(west of Hwy 281), where sustained speeds 15-20 MPH/gusts 25-30
MPH will be most common. High temps upper 50s-low 60s most
areas. Any spotty rain should depart by evening, with slightly-
milder lows in the mid-upper 30s likely Monday night.


- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
The forecast turns dry again as upper ridging over the
southwestern U.S. again becomes an increasing influence, with
high temps steadily trending upward...currently aimed mainly 70s
Tuesday...then low-mid 80s most areas Wednesday (upper 80s far
south-southwest). Overnight lows follow suit...holding up well
into the 40s to perhaps low 50s.


- THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
As usual, uncertainty grows in the "finer details" at this time
range, but the main takeaways include a cool-down as the upper
pattern "flattens" a bit and our next large-scale surface cold
front passes southward through the Central Plains (the latest
ECMWF/GFS both bring this front through on Thursday). For now,
we have highs easing back in the 70s Thursday, then mainly 50s
for Friday-Saturday. Our official forecast includes some
spotty/low chances for precipitation as early as late Thurs
night-Fri AM, the vast majority of which should fall as rain (if
any occurs).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout, with
mostly clear skies this afternoon-evening gradually giving way
to only some high cirrus overnight, then eventually a lower
(but still solidly VFR) ceiling down to around 8K ft. AGL on
Monday morning. A rogue sprinkle or very brief period of light
rain cannot be totally ruled out Monday morning, but with these
chances currently deemed no higher than 10-20%, any precip
mention has been omitted from TAFs.

This leaves winds as the main aviation issue, particularly the
still- blustery speeds this afternoon, along with a gradual
directional flip from northerly to southeasterly.

- Wind details:
By far the strongest winds are right away this afternoon
(particularly through 21Z), with sustained northerlies around
25KT/gusts 30-35KT. These speeds will gradually back down as the
afternoon wears on, with even gusts down to around 20KT by early
this evening (00-01Z). Overnight, a surface high pressure axis
will provide several hours of light speed/variable direction
breezes, but generally transitioning from northerly to
southeasterly. By mid-late Monday morning, these southeasterlies
will start to increase with sustained speeds 10+KT by 15-16Z.
Although not reflected in current TAFs, gusts to around 20KT are
possible by the very end of the period (17-18Z).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Unfortunately, other than some very small/fleeting chances for a
few rain showers here or there (mainly centered around Monday
and then again later in the week), the vast majority of these
next 7 days appear dry. Following is a day-by-day breakdown of
fire weather concerns within our forecast area (CWA):

- SUNDAY:
Despite afternoon high temperatures being at least 30-35 degrees
COOLER than Saturday, they will still be above-average for late-
March...most areas topping out between the upper 50s-mid 60s.
Winds will also remain moderately-strong especially through the
first half of the day, but fortunately will SLOWLY decrease
through the afternoon as RH gradually falls. The net result is a
solidly elevated-to-near-critical fire weather situation,
featuring northerly wind gusts commonly 25-35 during the
afternoon, but with RH currently forecast to drop no lower than
25-30 percent (slightly above official critical criteria).

At this time, we have decided against a formal Warning given the
combination of: 1) RH falling slightly short of criteria...2)
winds slowly decreasing with time. That being said, should later
forecasts raise wind speeds and/or lower RH, arguments could
certainly be made for a marginal Warning issuance...especially
in our southern/Kansas counties.

- MONDAY:
At this time, this looks like another elevated-to-near critical
fire weather afternoon for most of our CWA. Temperatures will be
similar to Sunday, but this time the breezy winds will be out of
the south-southeast...overall-strongest in the western half of
our CWA where gusts of 25-30 MPH are most likely. At this time,
minimum afternoon RH is forecast to bottom out 22-30% in most
places (slightly above critical criteria), but it could be a
"close call" especially in our western-most Nebraska counties
(Dawson/Gosper/Furnas), so this bears close watching.

- TUESDAY:
This is also a day that bears watching, as although our current
forecast does not call for critical conditions, this has "the
looks" of a day that could trend worse as it gets closer in
time, thanks to breezy southerly winds that will likely gust 20+
MPH. At least for now, minimum RH is forecast to drop no lower
than 25-30% in most places.

- WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
As is typical this far out in time, confidence is lacking in the
"finer details" regarding fire weather parameters. Wednesday
bears watching for the warmest temperatures (highs in the 80s)
and lowest RH of the week (10-20% most places), but at least for
now winds appear relatively tame. Thursday-Friday then appear to
turn windier out of the northeast behind a cold front, but there
are questions regarding how low RH might get in a cooler
airmass.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
  overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
  of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion