Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

429
FXUS63 KOAX 092022
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
322 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 30% chance for scattered showers and a storm or two
  across western Iowa into far southeast Nebraska late tonight
  into early Friday morning.

- Dry conditions expected for Friday with highs in the mid to
  upper 70s and northeasterly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

- Active pattern expected for Saturday and Sunday with a 15 to
  30% chance for showers and storms, primarily across northeast
  Nebraska. Gusty southerly winds are expected on Sunday.
  Temperatures cool Monday and Tuesday to the low to mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

20z H5 RAP objective analysis shows portions of the Central and
Northern Plains sandwiched between two prominent features: a ridge
centered over western Texas and a 546dam closed low centered over
northern Manitoba. The shortwave has helped dampen the ridge,
resulting in northwestern to slightly zonal H5 flow over the Dakotas
into Nebraska.

Looking at the sfc, objective analysis shows a frontal boundary
extending from a sfc low near the Hudson Bay southwestward into the
central Dakotas and western Nebraska. Ahead of the front, southerly
winds have been breezy, gusting to 25 to 30 mph. With little to no
clouds and ample mixing into a 25 to 30 kt LLJ, expect the gustiness
to continue this afternoon before subsiding this evening. High
temperatures for today will be in the mid 70s across western Iowa,
and the low 80s across eastern Nebraska.

The frontal boundary will track to the east tonight, eventually
reaching northeast Nebraska by midnight and western Iowa by Friday
morning. Despite rather poor QG forcing in the midlevels, increasing
low level moisture transport and warm air advection at H8 along with
any sfc convergence from the front may help trigger a few scattered
showers early Friday morning. BUFKIT soundings show around 500 to
1,000 J/kg of elevated instability rooted aloft at H8, so a few
thunderstorms may develop within this activity. Latest suite of
CAM guidance suggests scattered weak convection developing
after 05z over western Iowa southwestward into far southeast
Nebraska along and ahead of the front, exiting our forecast area
to the southeast after 10z. Have trimmed back PoPs slightly for
this forecast package, with most locations seeing 15 to 20%
chances for showers and storms. PoPs peak at 30% over far
southeast portions of the forecast area by 08z. Lows tonight
will be a function of the frontal location, with northeast
Nebraska in the upper 40s to low 50s, and the mid 50s to near
60F for the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

Sfc high pressure and the resultant large scale subsidence will
settle into the Northern Plains on Friday behind the front. Expect a
mix of clouds and sun with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
and northeasterly winds at 10 to 15 mph. Lows Friday will be in the
mid 40s along western Iowa, and upper 40s to low 50s across eastern
Nebraska.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The 544dam closed low currently near the Pacific Northwest will push
east into the west coast, digging the H5 trof while displacing the
center of the central CONUS ridge farther east. Several shortwaves
will eject from the trof into the Central and Northern Plains,
leading to a few rounds of PoPs on Saturday into early Sunday over
northeast Nebraska (15-30% chance). Highs Saturday will be cooler in
the upper 60s to mid 70s over far southeast Nebraska as cloud cover
from the aforementioned disturbances filters in.

By Sunday, the longwave trof will move inland toward the Rockies,
inducing sfc cyclogenesis across the western Dakotas. H8 low level
warm air advection will also be on the increase as the baroclinic
zone lifts northeast, resulting in high temperatures in the low to
mid 80s. Ample mixing into a 40 to 50 kt H8 LLJ coupled with the
tightening pressure gradient from the sfc low will lead to gusty 30
to 35 mph southerly winds. The sfc cold front will eventually move
through Sunday evening from west to east. 1000-850 mb low level
moisture transport along with any forcing for ascent may lead to a
few scattered showers and storms by Sunday evening, although NBM
guidance currently has only 15 to 20% chances for scattered showers
and storms.

Sfc high pressure will once again settle in behind the front for
Monday and Tuesday with cooler temperatures. Most areas will see
highs in the low to mid 60s with breezy northerly winds. A few
shortwaves will track through the area Monday and Tuesday as they
ride the top of an amplifying H5 ridge centered over eastern Texas.
These will lead to some low end 15 to 20% chances of rain for the
area both days. The amplifying ridge will result in a warming trend
again, with CPC 8 to 14 day outlooks hinting at above normal
temperatures for the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are observed at the start of this TAF cycle with
breezy south southeasterly winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph.
Winds will subside toward the early evening hours, eventually
turning to the north northwest late tonight into tomorrow
morning as a cold front moves through. A few scattered showers
may develop along and east of a line from near KBIE to KCBF to
KHNR from 07z to 11z. Confidence in these showers reaching KOMA
and KLNK remains well below 50% for inclusion in TAF at this
time. The most likely scenario to occur will be SCT to BKN
ceilings around 4kft to 6kft.

Fog may develop after 11z at KOMA and KLNK, but given wide range
of solutions from model guidance, have kept visibilities in VFR
with mentions of BR. Expect refinements and adjustments with
upcoming issuances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

327
FXUS63 KGID 091938
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
238 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible tonight behind a cold frontal passage, but widespread
  or dense fog is not expected.

- Above normal temperatures (70s & 80s) continue through the weekend,
  warmest on Sunday.

- Low chances for precipitation (15-25%) Friday and Saturday
  night north of I-80, with more widespread rain chances on
  Tuesday (15-25%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Today/Tonight...

A eroding stratus deck is centered along a Broken Bow-Lexington-
McCook line. Under the stratus, temperatures have been cooler, in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Further east where sunshine has prevailed,
temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly
winds have been breezy at times along/east of Highway 281, gusting
20-25mph.

Aloft, a ridge currently sits over the Great Plains. Tonight, a
shortwave trough and associated surface low over Manitoba will dive
into the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through the area. Along
and behind this cold front, patchy fog is possible as the front
slides southeast across the area. Widespread dense fog appears
unlikely but visibility around 1 mile is possible at times.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s (northwest) to low 60s
(southeast).


Friday daytime...

Any ongoing fog clears/mixes out after sunrise Friday morning with
sunny skies returning to the area. Despite the cold frontal passage,
another seasonably warm day is expected across the area as
temperatures climb into the 70s. Northerly winds will shift to the
east during the day, remaining fairly light with gusts of 10-15mph.

Friday night and Saturday...

A passing weak disturbance will result in the development of
scattered showers/storms over northeastern CO that move into the
area Friday night/Saturday morning. There remains some spread in
model guidance for how widespread these showers/storms will be,
but northern/northwestern portions of the area have the highest
chance (15-25%) to see rain.

The ridge aloft will shift into the Midwest on Saturday as a trough
moves into the Rockies, placing the area under southwesterly flow.
At the surface a warm front is expected to gradually shift north
during the day. Saturday`s highs will vary depending on the timing
of the frontal passage, ranging from the upper 70s-low 80s in the
south/southwest to the low 70s in the north/northeast. Breezy
southeasterly winds are expected during the day, strongest south of
the front, gusting 20-35mph. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected
north of the warm front, with mostly sunny skies south of the warm
front. A few scattered showers/storms could develop along the warm
front Saturday evening (15-25% PoPs), clipping far northern portions
of the area.

Sunday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday ahead of an
approaching trough. Sunday is expected to be the warmest day in the
forecast period as highs soar into the mid-upper 80s, around 15-20
degrees above their climatological norms (upper 60s to low 70s). A
cold front will move into western portions of the area during the
afternoon, which could keep highs a few degrees cooler than
currently forecast west of Highway 183. Southerly winds gusting 25-
35mph are expected ahead of the front, with winds shifting to the
north behind the front, remaining breezy at 20-25mph. Isolated
thunderstorm development remains possible (15-20%) along the cold
front Sunday night as it moves south through the area, but models
continue to trend PoPs down and keep storms isolated if they develop
at all.

Monday Onwards...

Monday will be noticeably cooler behind the cold frontal passage,
with highs in the 60s, a ~ 20 degree difference compared to Sunday!
A passing disturbance moves into the plains Monday night-Tuesday
bringing the next chance (15-25%) for rain to the area. There
remains uncertainty in ensemble guidance for how widespread this
rain will be, but at least a few scattered storms remain possible
during the day on Tuesday. Cloudy skies and rain chances will keep
Tuesday cool across the area, with northern portions of the area
struggling to climb out of the 50s. Temperatures climb back above
normal at the end of the forecast period as ridging-southwesterly
flow builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The eastern edge of a slowly eroding MVFR stratus deck sits
over KEAR. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly it
erodes, but VFR conditions are expected to return by the mid-
late afternoon hours. Have indicated this uncertainty with a
TEMPO VFR group through 20z. Overnight a cold front moves
through the area, with patchy fog possible behind front. The
most likely time for fog will be around sunrise, though the
position, duration, and density of fog (MVFR vs IFR vs LIFR) in
any area remains uncertain. Have indicated this potential with a
TEMPO MVFR visibility group from 09-13z Friday.

Southerly winds currently gusting around 20kts will gradually
decrease this afternoon, becoming light and variable this
evening. A cold front moves through the area overnight, with
winds remaining variable, but becoming northerly by sunrise on
Friday. Winds increase slightly after sunrise with sustained
winds of 8-10kts by the end of the taf period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion