71°F
Updated:
6/13/2026
00:21:54am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
484 FXUS63 KOAX 130428 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday morning with additional thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoon and evening. - Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday. - Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday with increasing uncertainty beyond this timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 After a quiet Friday, thunderstorms return to the forecast early Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will be in response to moisture return on a low-level jet impinging on a slowly sagging cold front. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of eastern Nebraska prior to sunrise. These thunderstorms will be in an environment that is forecast to have sufficient instability and shear for the development of large hail in the strongest cells. A damaging microburst can`t be entirely ruled out also. These thunderstorms gradually shift east of the area through the remainder of the morning hours. There is a bit of uncertainty on how the remainder of Saturday will transpire. Some of this evening`s guidance tends to keep at least some weak convection along the cold front into the early afternoon, accelerating it`s advance southward. Other guidance, has a lull in activity until later in the afternoon and evening, slowing the front`s advance. In either event, a digging trough over the northern Rockies tonight will sink towards our area by afternoon. This will act to support the development of additional thunderstorms along the cold front. At this time, most of this convection is forecast to remain south of Interstate 80. With plentiful instability and wind shear, a risk of severe weather is anticipated. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado remains possible if a discrete cell can remain ahead of the front. In addition, flash flooding is possible with westerly upper-level flow supporting potential training of thunderstorms along the east-west oriented front. It should be noted, that if early day convection lingers, this could inhibit later convection, so we will have to closely monitor forecast trends. By evening, the cold front and any associated thunderstorms will push south and out of the region. A gusty north wind will fill in behind the front, ushering cooler temperatures. High pressure and cooler weather settles in on Sunday into early next week. Tuesday into Wednesday sees temperatures begin to climb once again as the pattern amplifies ahead of our next potential weather system on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening appears to be our next chance of rain for the area. After Wednesday`s system, forecast model guidance begins to diverge and significant uncertainty remains on the exact evolution of the forecast pattern in the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected to largely prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will continue into tonight as a low- level jet develops over portions of the area. This may result in LLWS at OFK and OMA early Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated on the leading edge of this jet over portions of Northeast Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance has thunderstorms in the vicinity of OFK before quickly lifting north. OMA and LNK are not expected to see any impacts currently. A cold front will begin to sag south through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will shift towards the west then north along and behind this front, eventually becoming gusty. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the front. Currently, the bulk of any thunderstorms is expected to be focused south of OMA and LNK. If thunderstorms were to develop near these terminals, it is most likely between 21-00Z. That said, confidence in impacts is low at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
105 FXUS63 KGID 130005 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 705 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. - A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, and another round of isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. - Next week starts off cool on Sunday, but the 90s return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle, and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry through sunrise Saturday. On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be ~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones. Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and 0-6km shear 30-40kt. Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the 40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid 70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry. A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push 100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a more active period again starting the following weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Gusty southerly winds will weaken through this evening, especially after sunset. A SSW nocturnal low-level jet will develop and intensify overnight, causing low-level wind shear between 6-12Z. A cold front will move through the area, possibly initiating a few thunderstorms that could impact both KEAR and KGRI between 7-11Z. This risk is illustrated in a PROB30 group due to the lower confidence in location and coverage of these storms. If any severe thunderstorms impact the terminals, some hail may be possible. Additionally, some guidance is highlighting a chance for low MVFR ceilings during and post cold front passage. Because there is little model consensus with this phenomena, these low clouds are illustrated as being scattered in the TAF. Post cold frontal passage, northerly winds will increase in strength into the afternoon, gusting up to 25 kts for both locations. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Scott
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