41°F
Updated:
12/8/2023
02:16:30am

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 8 07:01:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 8 07:01:02 UTC 2023.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Dec 8 07:01:02 UTC 2023
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 8 07:01:02 UTC 2023.
SPC Dec 8, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023Read more
SPC Dec 8, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A leading cyclogenetic surface low will quickly move from the Lake MI area at 12Z Saturday towards James Bay. As this occurs, the cold front trailing to its south-southwest will initially decelerate over the south-central states, downstream of a basal shortwave impulse. This feature should advance from the NM vicinity to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Sunday. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this latter wave from the Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley. ...East TX to the TN Valley... While regional/global guidance has converged towards a consensus on the upper-level synoptic pattern, differences emerge in timing/placement of the surface baroclinic zone. In addition, CAM guidance offers quite a bit of spread with the potential convective evolution on Saturday. As a result, primary change has been to expand the northeast extent of severe probabilities within a conditionally favorable, high-shear/low-CAPE environment. From east TX into south AR and west MS, a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will become established as surface temperatures rise into the 70s, amid dew points from the mid to upper 60s. Increasing mid-level height falls will overspread the aforementioned baroclinic zone midday, with convective development along/north of the surface front initially probable near the weak cyclone in the Ark-La-Tex. This should become more widespread to the east and south during the afternoon, although spread in CAM guidance is above average with just how quickly this actually occurs and the southward extent of convective development in east TX/west LA during the afternoon. Despite these differences, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells producing large hail, especially where flow can be semi-orthogonal to the front across east TX and the Sabine Valley. A clustered convective mode should dominate to the east across the Mid-South owing to orientation of convective development near/ahead of the cold front more closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. But embedded supercells are expected as well, with low-level hodographs adequately enlarged for a few tornadoes. By late afternoon to early evening, an extensive swath of clusters and line segments should dominate. Some increase in low-level SRH is anticipated during this time frame, focused on central to north portions of MS/AL and northward. This should foster a continued damaging-wind and embedded tornado threat east of the MS Valley even as convection outpaces/overturns the instability plume. Low-probability wind/tornado threats will probably persist overnight but should gradually wane in time. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
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