SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 17 11:50:03 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 17 11:50:03 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Oct 17 11:50:03 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 17 11:50:03 UTC 2025.

SPC Oct 17, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with a threat mainly for damaging winds are possible
over parts of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong neutral to slightly negative tilt upper trough over the OH
Valley and Great Lakes is forecast to continue intensifying as it
moves quickly eastward Sunday. At the base of the trough, a 90+ kt
jet streak will lift northward into the upper OH Valley and
Northeast deepening a surface low over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada. Strong southerly winds ahead of the low will support a
modestly moist air mass from eastern OH/KY into western PA and WV. A
cold front expected to move eastward with the low will serve as a
focus for thunderstorm potential Sunday morning through Sunday
evening.

...OH Valley and Appalachians...
A squall line is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
from central/eastern OH into northern KY ahead of the front and
deepening surface low. Strong ascent from the trough/jet streak
should maintain this shallow convective line into portions of PA/WV
by early afternoon. With upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints and only
modest heating, buoyancy appears limited. However, the strong flow
aloft should still support a risk for damaging gusts. Backed flow
ahead of the surface low will favor large low-level shear which
could support embedded rotation with the potential for a brief
tornado or two. Storms will gradually weaken with eastward extent as
available buoyancy wanes into the evening.

...Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast...
At the start of the period, a few storms may be ongoing along the
front as it continues east/southeastward across southern MS/AL and
western FL. With marginal buoyancy and on the southern fringes of
the stronger flow aloft, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled
out, but convection should weaken through the morning before moving
offshore.

The cold front will continues eastward through the remainder of the
day with remnant showers and cloud cover likely ahead of it. Still,
some heating and destabilization is possible across the Southeast
and southern Appalachians. However, weak subsidence is expected over
much of the region as the primary upper trough and jet streak begin
to lift away to the north. This currently suggests limited
redevelopment will occur along the front Sunday afternoon, though
there remains substantial uncertainty. While isolated storms cannot
be ruled out, confidence remains too low for severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025


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SPC Oct 17, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Northeast Day 4/Monday...
As the strong upper trough moves from the OH Valley and Appalachians
into the Northeast, low-end severe potential remains possible ahead
of the cold front D4/Monday over parts of New England. Confined to a
narrow warm sector with modest moisture but strong low-level wind
fields, shallow convection could support isolated damaging gusts
before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon.

...Rest of US...
As the strong eastern US trough and low move into the Atlantic early
next week, offshore flow should limit available moisture and
buoyancy for much of the CONUS. A mid-level low moving into the
Southwest and the southern Plains mid to late week could support
some thunderstorms activity toward the end of the forecast period.
However, uncertainty remains very high with model guidance
suggesting limited moisture return and poor overlap with stronger
vertical shear. Thus, predictability remains too low for severe
probabilities through the extended forecast period.


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