SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 30 20:18:02 UTC 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 30 20:18:02 UTC 2023.

SPC MD 115

MD 0115 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Areas affected...Parts of north central and northeastern Texas into
southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 302015Z - 302315Z

SUMMARY...A consolidating cluster of thunderstorms may be
accompanied by increasing freezing rain rates in excess of 1/4 inch
per hour, near and northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into
parts of southeastern Oklahoma through 5-6 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...Closer to the leading edge of the shallow sub-freezing
near-surface  air mass, the overlying layer of air above freezing is
warmer and deeper across north central Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma, as convection with embedded thunderstorms to the south and
southwest gradually increases.  This activity may be supported by
forcing associated with a mid/upper perturbation within a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which is
forecast to continue to spread northeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex
vicinity through 23-00Z.  Elevated moisture return appears to be
contributing to inflow with CAPE increasing up to 250-500 J/kg,
which at least some model output suggests may support a
consolidating and upscale growing cluster of storms.  This may be
accompanied by peak rainfall rates increasing in excess of 1/4 inch
per hour, enhancing ice accrual on exposed objects in the
sub-freezing air.

..Kerr.. 01/30/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34009638 34759542 34789453 33449533 32659602 32469649
            32939684 34009638 

SPC MD 114

MD 0114 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 0114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Oklahoma into
northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 301918Z - 302315Z

SUMMARY...Accumulating sleet at rates up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour
may become more widespread in a corridor to the south of Interstate
44, across east central Oklahoma through the Fayetteville and
Branson areas of northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Continued low-level moisture return beneath modestly
steep lapse rates, on the northwestern periphery of slowly building
mid-level ridging (to the northwest of the subtropical ridge
centered over the Caribbean), has contributed to weak
destabilization across parts of the southern Great Plains.  This is
supporting an ongoing increase in convection with embedded
thunderstorm activity near and to the east and south of the
Interstate 35 and 44 corridors of eastern Oklahoma, generally along
a sharp quasi-stationary lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic zone
associated with a recent cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies.

Along and north of this frontal zone, the surface through roughly
925 mb layer is characterized by temperatures in the mid teens to
near 20 F, while a shallow layer above this air mass remains above
freezing.  The convection appears largely rooted above the warm
nose, with associated frozen precipitation mostly reaching the
surface has ice pellets/sleet.

Forcing for convection appears largely due to lift associated with
low/mid level warm advection and frontogenesis which are forecast to
continue to develop east-northeastward across the Interstate 40
corridor of eastern Oklahoma, into northwestern Arkansas and areas
of southwestern Missouri to the south of Interstate 44 through
21-23Z.  Although lightning may decrease as convection gradually
consolidates, sleet accumulation rates could still increase a bit
further up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour.

..Kerr.. 01/30/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35679623 36469511 36829427 37109333 36879265 36309274
            35999399 35429507 35149614 35679623 

SPC Jan 30, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern
CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential
for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close
to the southern CA coast.  Farther east, midlevel ridging will
persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating
east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. 
Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front
from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent
suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best.

The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the
elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX.  Regional
12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb
layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated
thunderstorms through the day.  The majority of this convection will
occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder
sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south
in TX.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 01/30/2023


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SPC Jan 30, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue for at least the
next few hours from central TX northeastward across eastern OK and
western AR. Much of this will occur atop below-freezing surface
temperatures, resulting in thunder sleet in several locations,
including north-central TX, eastern OK, and far southwest MO, and 
mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet across central TX and
west-central/southwest AR.

Isolated thunderstorm are still possible from southern MS through
southern GA this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern CA
from now through tomorrow morning.

..Mosier.. 01/30/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern
CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential
for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close
to the southern CA coast.  Farther east, midlevel ridging will
persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating
east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. 
Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front
from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent
suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best.

The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the
elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX.  Regional
12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb
layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated
thunderstorms through the day.  The majority of this convection will
occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder
sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south
in TX.


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SPC Jan 30, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is forecast cover much of North America early
Tuesday morning, anchored by a closed low centered over the Lower CO
River Valley. Confluent southwesterly flow aloft will precede this
system across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Expectation is
for this upper low to gradually shift southward/southwestward
throughout the day, while becoming increasingly displaced south of
the more progressive northern stream. Cold mid-level temperatures
and persistent forcing for ascent may contribute to a few lightning
strike across southwest AZ Tuesday morning.

Stable conditions are expected farther east across much of the
central and eastern CONUS as expansive surface ridging (extending
from the central Plains through much of the OH Valley) dominates the
sensible weather. Low-level moisture will remain in place from the
central Gulf Coast into southeast GA and across FL, but warm
temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorm development. 

Showers are expected throughout the day across TX, as southwesterly
flow aloft persists atop a cold and shallow continental air mass.
Modest elevated buoyancy is possible from the TX Hill Country into
east TX, and isolated lightning flashes may occur within the deepest
convective cores.

..Mosier.. 01/30/2023


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast is on track. Expect a few areas of transient
elevated conditions across southeastern Arizona into central New
Mexico. However, moist to marginally dry fuels across the region
will keep fire risk below Elevated criteria.

..Supinie.. 01/30/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns across the CONUS are low through the forecast
period. A cold and stable arctic airmass behind a cold front near
the Gulf Coast will support very cold temperatures and widespread
winter precipitation over the central and southern US. Isolated
pockets of dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of
the Southwest into NM and eastern AZ. However, poorly receptive
fuels and the sporadic coverage of any fire-weather conditions will
remain below Elevated criteria.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the previous forecast are needed.

..Supinie.. 01/30/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will remain dominant over much of the lower 48
through the forecast period. Reinforced by a cold and stable arctic
airmass, widespread winter precipitation is expected over the Plains
and central US. Cold temperatures, limited fuels and poor overlap of
dry/windy conditions suggest fire weather concerns are minimal over
much of the CONUS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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