83°F
Updated:
5/26/2026
7:32:22pm
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244
WW 244 SEVERE TSTM TX 261830Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-Central and South-Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and multicells should pose a threat
for both large hail and severe/damaging winds as thunderstorms
spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. A tornado or
two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
of San Angelo TX to 65 miles southeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Gleason
Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 Status Reports
WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW DRT
TO 35 SSW DRT TO 50 SSW JCT TO 45 NE JCT TO 5 SSE BWD.
..CHALMERS..05/26/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-127-163-171-265-271-299-319-323-325-385-411-463-507-
270040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA DIMMIT
FRIO GILLESPIE KERR
KINNEY LLANO MASON
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
SAN SABA UVALDE ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
SPC MD 868
MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270006Z - 270130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail will continue for another 1-2 hours.
Downstream watch issuance is unlikely, however.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts the continued eastward
propagation of a convective cluster across portions of central Texas
as of 0000 UTC. The environment ahead of this activity remains
modestly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), but stronger upper-level
flow and greater effective shear remain displaced farther to the
south, with only 20-25 kts of effective shear analyzed across the
discussion area. This is likely inhibiting the overall intensity and
organization of this cluster, with radar data from KGRK indicating
that the system outflow continues to largely precede the ongoing
convection. Despite this, some potential for strong to occasionally
damaging wind gusts may continue for another couple of hours.
Isolated large hail may also be possible, particularly with any more
robust, discrete convection that precedes this cluster. More limited
mid-level lapse rates (generally less than 7 C/km) and the
aforementioned modest effective shear should largely limit this
potential, however. Trends will continue to be monitored, but
downstream watch issuance is currently unlikely.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29899907 30249921 30429898 30799845 31009832 31419840
31519840 31689824 31759795 31829752 31759705 31449685
31119678 30609686 30199716 29989755 29859811 29819861
29899907
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC MD 867
MD 0867 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...parts of east central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262356Z - 270130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing supercell structure now to the northeast of the Stanton vicinity seems likely to weaken by around 9 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...A sustained supercell structure has been maintained along a modest zone of differential surface heating to the north through northeast of Stanton KY the past hour or so. Deep-layer shear along this boundary appears rather marginal, and low-level hodographs, though exhibiting clockwise curvature, are rather small. However, near-surface buoyancy and potential upward parcel accelerations probably are being aided by a moist boundary-layer with dew points near 70F. Although this cell has probably produced one or two weak tornadoes, it is not clear that this will continue much longer, as the boundary-layer begins to stabilize with slow radiational surface cooling. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL... LAT...LON 38258321 38148294 37888342 37918385 38258321 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPHRead more
SPC MD 866
MD 0866 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0866
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeastern New Mexico into West Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262328Z - 270100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed along a
weak boundary late this afternoon in the vicinity of the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains in southeastern New Mexico/West Texas. This
boundary demarcates the western periphery of a corridor of enhanced
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F), which
is supporting weak buoyancy (generally 500-1000 J/kg across the
region. Modest effective shear upstream of a mid/upper trough axis
(20-25 kts per latest mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support some
organization of updrafts into multicells and perhaps marginal
supercell structures. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a threat for sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail. A landspout also cannot be ruled out should a more robust,
low-level updraft interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity
along this boundary. Thunderstorm activity should then gradually
wane after another 1-2 hours owing to low-level nocturnal
cooling/stabilization. Given the limited magnitude and the expected
short-term nature of the severe threat, watch issuance is unlikely.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 32140467 32350460 32620427 32760388 32730334 32600301
32110279 31110269 30410254 30110244 29590256 29170280
29070301 29230349 29710389 30460435 30970468 31540485
31850479 32140467
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC MD 865
MD 0865 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...parts of northern Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262223Z - 270100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may progress across the
international border by around 8 PM EDT, with continuing potential
for a few strong gusts before weakening further thereafter.
DISCUSSION...The most prominent thunderstorm activity, within a
pre-frontal convective band now advancing to the southeast of the
St. Lawrence Valley, appears to be propagating a bit slower and to
the right of the 50-60 kt deep-layer westerly ambient mean flow, but
still around 40 kt. With this continuing motion, storms are on pace
to progress across the international border, coincident with a broad
area of lower pressure to the south of the primary surface cyclone,
between 23-00Z. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that the modestly deep
mixed boundary layer ahead of activity may remain sufficiently
unstable to support convection capable of producing a few strong
surface gusts into portions of northern Maine, before storms weaken
further with diminishing severe weather potential thereafter.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 46337223 46647119 46907038 47116938 46486815 45816994
45777058 46337223
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC May 26, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large
hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
...20Z Update...
Much of the forecast remains generally on track. Across central into
southern Texas, Slight risk probabilities were trimmed from the west
to account for the passage of an ongoing MCS. Severe probabilities
were increased into deep south Texas for the possibility of
preceding supercells developing ahead of the eastward-meandering MCS
this evening, which may be accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.
Finally, 5 percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward across
MT, and farther west from the Midwest into ND, to account for trends
in both observations and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/
...Texas...
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being
aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the
southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist
with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an
increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream
across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and
area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring
across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible
satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the
winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in
magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A
mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern
Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained
supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level
flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may
struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains
apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities
have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the
potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist
this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest
today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a
mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into
IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east
from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this
front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will
support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale
ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV
may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization.
Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely
organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this
activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will
continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of
modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain
limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed
with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop
across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and
evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and
perhaps some hail.
...Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley
today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor
lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should
temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic
limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be
in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear
possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of
the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at
least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a
tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in
closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible
satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary.
For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of
KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the
Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential
can be delineated.
...Northern Maine...
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet
will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME
this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of
thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later
today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment.
Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Northeastern Montana...
A similar synoptic setup as D1/Tuesday will carry over into
D2/Wednesday across the Northern Plains. An upper-low across the
Great Basin and associated surface trough across central MT will
promote strong southeasterly winds of 15-25 mph across the central
and northern High Plains Wednesday. High-based convection this
afternoon is expected across central and northeastern MT through
Tuesday evening. Rainfall will be minimal and confined to isolated
heavier rain cores, allowing drier fuels to remain largely
receptive. Despite some upper-level cloud cover and slightly cooler
temperatures, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will support RH
reductions of 15-20% across northeastern MT. Elevated Highlights
have been introduced to cover the enhanced fire weather concern.
...Great Basin...
Stronger south/southwest winds ahead of an upper-level low and
related surface low in northeastern NV/northwestern UT will affect
the eastern Great Basin, Upper CO River Basin and portions of the
Southwest. Sustained south to southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally
30 mph in favorable terrain) and minimum RH of 10-20% will support
elevated to locally critical fire weather threat Tuesday afternoon.
Some trimming of existing elevated highlights was necessary across
central UT due to recent wetting rainfall leading to reduced fuel
receptiveness.
..Williams.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great
Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the
central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the
southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop
across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward
across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting
rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains
in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of
the Southeast.
...Northeastern Montana...
Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee
trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the
northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of
around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected.
Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the
east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near
15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels
across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected
to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns
Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion
of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the
coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a
northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with
westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles.
...Great Basin...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the
Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward
progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with
well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to
15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support
occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed,
elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the
region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of
elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions
possible in areas of drier fine fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will remain over the Great Basin on Day
3/Thursday before evolving into an open wave Day 4/Friday and
ejecting into Northern Rockies by Day 5/Saturday. The trough and
associated stronger south to southwest flow will support ongoing
fire weather concerns through Day 4/Friday. Forecast confidence
remains high for a persistent blocking ridge encompassing the
central U.S., northward into the Hudson Bay. Upper troughing east of
the ridge should keep a low fire weather threat amid below normal
temperatures across the Northeast through early next week. Deep
low-level moisture across the Southeast and Southern Plains will
bolster a heavier rainfall potential as a series of diffuse
mid-level waves traverse the southern U.S. through early next week.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low
over the Great Basin will sustain a fire weather threat for portions
of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest on Day 3/Thursday. South
winds 15-20 mph and RH around 15% combined with drier lower
elevation fuels should promote at least elevated fire weather
conditions during the afternoon. Some modifications were made to the
existing 40% critical probability area owing to recent rainfall
across eastern AZ into western NM.
...Day 3/Thursday - Northeastern Montana...
Dry southeasterly flow over the northern High Plains ahead of a
persistent surface trough across central MT, will support another
day of enhanced fire weather concerns across northeastern MT on Day
3/Thursday. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced to
northeastern MT where receptive fuels are still present within
pockets of green up.
...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Longer term forecast guidance suggests a muted fire weather threat
across CONUS over the weekend into early next week. Diminishing
winds across the Intermountain West are expected in the wake of the
exiting upper-level trough. Under the blocking ridge over the
central U.S., dominant surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
and Upper Midwest should promote light winds and a reduced fire
weather concern. However, dry conditions and warming temperatures
will continue to dry fuels across much of north-central CONUS
through the weekend.
..Williams.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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