23°F
Updated:
1/22/2025
01:51:39am
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025.
SPC Jan 22, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south of the northern U.S. Rockies. This will reinforce larger scale troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States. Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate. It appears that another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2025Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop southward into parts of the northwestern states. At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is forecast due to cold surface conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 OutlookDay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature.Read more
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