SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 23 17:06:01 UTC 2022

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 23 17:06:01 UTC 2022.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jan 23 17:06:01 UTC 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 23 17:06:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Jan 23, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico today.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be very low over the CONUS owing to the
prevalence of cold continental trajectories. As one exception, will
maintain low thunderstorm probabilities (around 10%) for portions of
southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico today. This is associated
with the northern periphery of an eastward-moving southern-stream
upper low near the International Border vicinity. Thermodynamic
profiles will be marginal, but steep lapse rates and minimal
buoyancy could support a few lightning flashes through the
afternoon.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 01/23/2022


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SPC Jan 23, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico today.

...AZ/NM/TX through tonight...
A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward from Sonora/southern
AZ to far west TX by Monday morning.  Cold midlevel temperatures
with association steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy will support
the potential for isolated thunderstorms, aided this afternoon by
surface heating/mixing.  Some elevated convection (rooted near 700
mb) may occur farther east in TX overnight, in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough.  However, buoyancy will be limited,
and it is not clear that cloud depth will be sufficient for
lightning production.

..Thompson.. 01/23/2022


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SPC Jan 23, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into
western Louisiana beginning late on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An extensive area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain over much of
the central and eastern CONUS on Monday, with the primary upper low
over Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will
move eastward across TX during the day, losing amplitude as it
approaches the lower MS Valley by 12Z Tuesday.

At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will shift
east toward FL, allowing minimal low-level moisture return with 60s
F dewpoints nosing north toward the TX Coast. Southerly winds ahead
of the shortwave trough will aid elevated moisture return, and lift
from warm advection will result in widespread clouds and rain from
east TX during the day across the northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings show minimal elevated
instability with buoyancy maximized in the 700-500 mb layer, and
this may support a few lightning flashes as precipitation expands
from the upper TX Coast across southwest LA. Given such weak
elevated instability, hail is unlikely and thus severe weather is
not expected.

..Jewell.. 01/23/2022


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track based on morning observations and
trends in latest guidance. While hi-res solutions have trended
towards higher RH across the northern High Plains, periods of
elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across central MT.
Seasonally high ERC values are noted for a couple of zones across
central MT, but fuels across the broader region remain unreceptive
and preclude a greater fire weather risk. 

Across coastal CA, winds remain breezy with occasional gusts up to
50 mph, but the LAX-TPH pressure gradient has begun weakening and
will continue to do so through the day, diminishing gradient winds
in the process.

..Moore.. 01/23/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
For today, a closed upper low will continue eastward in the
Southwest, becoming more of an open wave with time. Elsewhere, a
broad upper trough will be situated across the eastern third of the
country. A fast-moving shortwave trough will dive southeastward out
of Canada and into the northern Plains. A surface cyclone will
follow a similar path out of the Canadian Prairie. A surface high
pressure system will remain in the Great Basin, but is expected to
weaken through the period.

Two areas of strong winds and lowered RH are possible. Offshore
winds will continue for part of the day in southern California. Some
of the more aggressively dry guidance shows near-critical RH
occurring in parts of central Montana along with fairly strong
winds. Even with the potential for elevated/near-critical
meteorological conditions, fuels have received enough recent
precipitation that fire weather concerns should remain low in both
areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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