14°F
Updated:
1/30/2023
2:21:00pm

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 30 20:18:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 30 20:18:02 UTC 2023.
SPC MD 115
MD 0115 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north central and northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 302015Z - 302315Z SUMMARY...A consolidating cluster of thunderstorms may be accompanied by increasing freezing rain rates in excess of 1/4 inch per hour, near and northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into parts of southeastern Oklahoma through 5-6 PM CST. DISCUSSION...Closer to the leading edge of the shallow sub-freezing near-surface air mass, the overlying layer of air above freezing is warmer and deeper across north central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, as convection with embedded thunderstorms to the south and southwest gradually increases. This activity may be supported by forcing associated with a mid/upper perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which is forecast to continue to spread northeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity through 23-00Z. Elevated moisture return appears to be contributing to inflow with CAPE increasing up to 250-500 J/kg, which at least some model output suggests may support a consolidating and upscale growing cluster of storms. This may be accompanied by peak rainfall rates increasing in excess of 1/4 inch per hour, enhancing ice accrual on exposed objects in the sub-freezing air. ..Kerr.. 01/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34009638 34759542 34789453 33449533 32659602 32469649 32939684 34009638Read more
SPC MD 114
MD 0114 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 301918Z - 302315Z SUMMARY...Accumulating sleet at rates up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour may become more widespread in a corridor to the south of Interstate 44, across east central Oklahoma through the Fayetteville and Branson areas of northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Continued low-level moisture return beneath modestly steep lapse rates, on the northwestern periphery of slowly building mid-level ridging (to the northwest of the subtropical ridge centered over the Caribbean), has contributed to weak destabilization across parts of the southern Great Plains. This is supporting an ongoing increase in convection with embedded thunderstorm activity near and to the east and south of the Interstate 35 and 44 corridors of eastern Oklahoma, generally along a sharp quasi-stationary lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic zone associated with a recent cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies. Along and north of this frontal zone, the surface through roughly 925 mb layer is characterized by temperatures in the mid teens to near 20 F, while a shallow layer above this air mass remains above freezing. The convection appears largely rooted above the warm nose, with associated frozen precipitation mostly reaching the surface has ice pellets/sleet. Forcing for convection appears largely due to lift associated with low/mid level warm advection and frontogenesis which are forecast to continue to develop east-northeastward across the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern Oklahoma, into northwestern Arkansas and areas of southwestern Missouri to the south of Interstate 44 through 21-23Z. Although lightning may decrease as convection gradually consolidates, sleet accumulation rates could still increase a bit further up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35679623 36469511 36829427 37109333 36879265 36309274 35999399 35429507 35149614 35679623Read more
SPC Jan 30, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close to the southern CA coast. Farther east, midlevel ridging will persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best. The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX. Regional 12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated thunderstorms through the day. The majority of this convection will occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south in TX. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 01/30/2023Read more
SPC Jan 30, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue for at least the next few hours from central TX northeastward across eastern OK and western AR. Much of this will occur atop below-freezing surface temperatures, resulting in thunder sleet in several locations, including north-central TX, eastern OK, and far southwest MO, and mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet across central TX and west-central/southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorm are still possible from southern MS through southern GA this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern CA from now through tomorrow morning. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close to the southern CA coast. Farther east, midlevel ridging will persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best. The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX. Regional 12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated thunderstorms through the day. The majority of this convection will occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south in TX.Read more
SPC Jan 30, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast cover much of North America early Tuesday morning, anchored by a closed low centered over the Lower CO River Valley. Confluent southwesterly flow aloft will precede this system across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Expectation is for this upper low to gradually shift southward/southwestward throughout the day, while becoming increasingly displaced south of the more progressive northern stream. Cold mid-level temperatures and persistent forcing for ascent may contribute to a few lightning strike across southwest AZ Tuesday morning. Stable conditions are expected farther east across much of the central and eastern CONUS as expansive surface ridging (extending from the central Plains through much of the OH Valley) dominates the sensible weather. Low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Gulf Coast into southeast GA and across FL, but warm temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorm development. Showers are expected throughout the day across TX, as southwesterly flow aloft persists atop a cold and shallow continental air mass. Modest elevated buoyancy is possible from the TX Hill Country into east TX, and isolated lightning flashes may occur within the deepest convective cores. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2023Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Expect a few areas of transient elevated conditions across southeastern Arizona into central New Mexico. However, moist to marginally dry fuels across the region will keep fire risk below Elevated criteria. ..Supinie.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns across the CONUS are low through the forecast period. A cold and stable arctic airmass behind a cold front near the Gulf Coast will support very cold temperatures and widespread winter precipitation over the central and southern US. Isolated pockets of dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southwest into NM and eastern AZ. However, poorly receptive fuels and the sporadic coverage of any fire-weather conditions will remain below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast are needed. ..Supinie.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain dominant over much of the lower 48 through the forecast period. Reinforced by a cold and stable arctic airmass, widespread winter precipitation is expected over the Plains and central US. Cold temperatures, limited fuels and poor overlap of dry/windy conditions suggest fire weather concerns are minimal over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
Navigation