SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 22 19:54:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 22 19:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 497

MD 0497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...parts of the central and southern High Plains.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221951Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and into the evening. Isolated severe wind gusts, and some
hail are possible. Limited moisture and storm organization should
preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 1945 UTC, visible imagery and radar analysis
showed incipient thunderstorms developing along a weak
dryline/surface pressure trough from parts of the central Plains
(NE,SD, CO, into western KS and the southern High Plains). Strong
diurnal heating of a modestly moist air mass, along with weak ascent
from increasing southwesterly flow aloft transecting the Rockies has
destabilized the air mass east of the boundary. Continued heating
and ascent should support additional storm development this
afternoon. Steep lapse rates (8-9 C km) and 30-40 kt of mid-level
flow will support occasional stronger/organized updrafts with
multicells or transient supercells.

High LCLs around 3 km, owing to the limited boundary-layer moisture
(generally 30s-40s F dewpoints) will promote strong downdrafts
within established thunderstorms. The steep lapse rates and strong
evaporative cooling may allow for a few stronger downdrafts with
severe gusts possible. Some hail is also plausible owing to cooling
mid-level temperatures, especially farther south and east where
buoyancy is greater. Given the propensity for strong downdrafts,
long-lived organized severe storms are unlikely.

Confidence in sustained thunderstorm activity is highest across the
central high Plains were synoptic ascent is more robust. However,
strong heating and the dryline circulation could support at least
isolated storm development farther south the TX/OK Panhandles this
afternoon/evening. With the severe risk expected to remain isolated
and short-lived, a WW currently appears unlikely.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 04/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
CYS...

LAT...LON   37790236 40310248 42850350 43390338 43650220 43450112
            43090076 41290003 39170047 37100084 36110151 35710209
            36250228 36810231 37790236 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC Apr 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHERN
OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will
be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and
evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis shows an airmass modifying under low-level
moisture advection across the southern and central Plains, with mid
50s dewpoints reaching through central KS and into eastern
NE/western IA. This moderate low-level moisture also extends
eastward from IA into northern IL and IN, just south of a stationary
boundary that demarcates a drier, more stable airmass across much of
the Great Lakes from the modifying airmass farther south/southwest.

This analysis also reveals a pair of surface lows, one over
north-central MT and the other over far northeast WY/far southeast
MT, linked by modest surface troughing. A wavy surface trough also
extends southward to another low over southeast CO. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated today/tonight near these lows and their
related surface boundaries. In particular, strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms appear possible near the northeast WY/far southeast MT
low as it moves eastward across SD, as well as in the vicinity of
the stationary boundary across northern IN and OH.

...IN/OH...
Weak surface low over southern Lower MI has already contributed to
thunderstorm development. The airmass downstream of this low, and
south of the stationary boundary that extends east-to-west near the
MI and IN/OH border vicinity, will likely destabilize throughout the
day amid continued low-level moisture advection and strong diurnal
heating. This destabilization coupled with low-level convergence
near the low and boundary will support increasing thunderstorm
coverage. Deep-layer wind profiles will be modest, but cool
mid-level temperatures and weak-moderate buoyancy could support
isolated severe hail and gusty outflow winds with the strongest
storms.

...High Plains...
Primary surface low over central MT is forecast to deepen today as a
closed upper low currently over the Great Basin ejects northeastward
while evolving towards a more open wave. At the same time, a
secondary surface low (currently over far northeast WY/far southeast
MT) is forecast to move eastward across SD, interacting with the
modifying airmass across the northern/central Plains. Expectation is
for this airmass to be deeply mixed, with perhaps some minimal
buoyancy atop the well-mixed boundary layer. Development of a few
high-based thunderstorms is possible this afternoon/evening from NE
into SD, as well as northeast MT, along the trough where deep mixing
and inverted-v profiles will favor strong outflow gusts.

Farther south, an even more conditional risk is anticipated along a
sharpening  dryline from southwest NE and western KS into west TX.
Given the limited large-scale forcing and only weak low-level
convergence, warm mid-level temperatures and related capping
associated with a notable elevated mixed layer will likely suppress
thunderstorm development. Here, deep-layer vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells, and a conditional risk for large hail and
strong gusts exists with any updrafts that are able to persist and
mature.  

...Western/Central NE into the Dakotas...
Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight from western/central
NE into the Dakotas as an eastward-progressing cold front interacts
with low-level moisture continuing to advect northward across the
Plains and a strengthening low-level jet. These storms will likely
be elevated behind the front, with some isolated hail possible early
in the convective cycle. Additionally, mid-level dry air will likely
remain across the region, supporting the potential for strong
outflow gusts despite the storms elevated character.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 04/22/2026


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SPC Apr 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will
be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and
evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor adjustments made to the general thunder and severe
probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance
consensus.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis shows an airmass modifying under low-level
moisture advection across the southern and central Plains, with mid
50s dewpoints reaching through central KS and into eastern
NE/western IA. This moderate low-level moisture also extends
eastward from IA into northern IL and IN, just south of a stationary
boundary that demarcates a drier, more stable airmass across much of
the Great Lakes from the modifying airmass farther south/southwest.

This analysis also reveals a pair of surface lows, one over
north-central MT and the other over far northeast WY/far southeast
MT, linked by modest surface troughing. A wavy surface trough also
extends southward to another low over southeast CO. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated today/tonight near these lows and their
related surface boundaries. In particular, strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms appear possible near the northeast WY/far southeast MT
low as it moves eastward across SD, as well as in the vicinity of
the stationary boundary across northern IN and OH.

...IN/OH...
Weak surface low over southern Lower MI has already contributed to
thunderstorm development. The airmass downstream of this low, and
south of the stationary boundary that extends east-to-west near the
MI and IN/OH border vicinity, will likely destabilize throughout the
day amid continued low-level moisture advection and strong diurnal
heating. This destabilization coupled with low-level convergence
near the low and boundary will support increasing thunderstorm
coverage. Deep-layer wind profiles will be modest, but cool
mid-level temperatures and weak-moderate buoyancy could support
isolated severe hail and gusty outflow winds with the strongest
storms.

...High Plains...
Primary surface low over central MT is forecast to deepen today as a
closed upper low currently over the Great Basin ejects northeastward
while evolving towards a more open wave. At the same time, a
secondary surface low (currently over far northeast WY/far southeast
MT) is forecast to move eastward across SD, interacting with the
modifying airmass across the northern/central Plains. Expectation is
for this airmass to be deeply mixed, with perhaps some minimal
buoyancy atop the well-mixed boundary layer. Development of a few
high-based thunderstorms is possible this afternoon/evening from NE
into SD, as well as northeast MT, along the trough where deep mixing
and inverted-v profiles will favor strong outflow gusts.

Farther south, an even more conditional risk is anticipated along a
sharpening  dryline from southwest NE and western KS into west TX.
Given the limited large-scale forcing and only weak low-level
convergence, warm mid-level temperatures and related capping
associated with a notable elevated mixed layer will likely suppress
thunderstorm development. Here, deep-layer vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells, and a conditional risk for large hail and
strong gusts exists with any updrafts that are able to persist and
mature.  

...Western/Central NE into the Dakotas...
Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight from western/central
NE into the Dakotas as an eastward-progressing cold front interacts
with low-level moisture continuing to advect northward across the
Plains and a strengthening low-level jet. These storms will likely
be elevated behind the front, with some isolated hail possible early
in the convective cycle. Additionally, mid-level dry air will likely
remain across the region, supporting the potential for strong
outflow gusts despite the storms elevated character.


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SPC Apr 22, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern High Plains Thursday
morning is forecast to shift east across the northern Plains into
the upper MS Valley in tandem with a belt of 50-60 kt
south-southwest winds in the mid levels. A secondary, lower-latitude
disturbance will advance into western KS and the OK/TX panhandles
late Thursday afternoon into evening, along with a more zonal
mid/upper-level jet streak. At the surface, the primary cyclone
attendant to the northern Plains system is expected to undergo
occlusion over southern into central Manitoba, while a trailing cold
front progresses east through the northern Plains into the upper MS
Valley. A pre-frontal trough or pseudo-dryline will precede the cold
front, extending from western MN through western IA and eastern NE
into central KS by early to mid afternoon. A secondary surface low
is forecast to deepen across portions of southwest KS or northwest
OK Thursday afternoon in response to the approach of the
lower-latitude disturbance mentioned above. A more classic dryline
will extend south from that low through western OK into western
north TX during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

...Upper MS Valley and upper Midwest through the mid/lower MO Valley
into central/eastern KS...

A broad, nocturnal, low-level wind maximum will develop across the
Great Plains tonight (Wed. night), enhancing the poleward flux of an
increasingly moist boundary layer beneath a residual EML plume
residing across the same region. The moisture increase beneath a
capping inversion at the base of the EML may result in considerable
cloud cover Thursday afternoon across portions of the warm sector
air mass. Where cloud breaks occur, model soundings indicate the
potential for MLCAPE to approach 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of
southern MN to as high as 2000-3000+ J/kg in central and eastern KS.

By early to mid afternoon, convergence along the pre-frontal
trough/dryline coupled with increasing height falls/forcing for
ascent are expected to support widely scattered thunderstorms from
portions of central and southern MN through eastern NE and western
IA, into at least northeast KS. While the strongest mid/upper-level
wind fields are expected to remain to the immediate west of the
initiating boundary, a corridor of 40-45 kt effective bulk shear
will overlie the western fringe of the warm sector, supporting
organized multicells and supercells as the initial storm mode with
an attendant threat for large to very large hail and a few
tornadoes. Subsequent upscale growth into a broken band of storms is
expected Thursday evening into Thursday night across portions of
eastern MN into western WI, western and central IA, southeast NE,
northeast KS, and northwest MO. Damaging wind potential will
increase with that mode change, with a continued risk for a few
tornadoes.

The most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and
vertical wind shear is expected to develop across central into
eastern KS Thursday afternoon into evening. Here, a few intense
supercells capable of all severe-weather hazards appear possible,
and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be required
in subsequent Day 1 outlooks.

...OK into north TX...

Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is
expected to develop east of the dryline by late afternoon into early
evening on Thursday. However, strong capping at the base of the EML
casts considerable uncertainty on whether storms can develop. While
the strongest forcing for ascent associated with the secondary
short-wave trough is expected to remain across KS, subtle mid-level
height falls are forecast across northern OK. Otherwise, strong
heating to the west of the dryline and resultant deepening
circulations along it will be the primary mechanism responsible for
any storm development.

On the condition that isolated storms develop and become sustained,
the kinematic environment will support supercells capable of very
large hail and tornadoes. This is especially the case during the
evening hours as low-level shear strengthens in response to the
amplification of the low-level jet.

..Mead.. 04/22/2026


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SPC Apr 22, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...
Storms may be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning from
parts of OK into AR/MO, and possibly into the lower OH Valley. While
a general weakening trend is expected during the morning, the
strongest early-day storms could pose a threat of isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts. 

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening, along the primary outflow/cold front and any other
residual boundaries left over from the morning convection. The
strongest heating/destabilization is expected from parts of TX into
southeast OK, where MLCAPE of 2000-3000 may develop, with moderate
instability expected as far east as the lower MS/OH Valleys. 

At this time, the greatest diurnal storm coverage is expected from
eastern OK/northeast TX into AR, where a weak midlevel shortwave
trough and potential MCV may overlap moderate to strong buoyancy.
Effective shear will be relatively modest (generally 30-35 kt), but
sufficient to support some storm organization. Initial diurnal
development in this region could pose a threat for hail and locally
damaging wind. Low-level flow/shear will generally remain weak, but
storm/boundary interactions could also support a low tornado threat.
With time, consolidating outflows could support modest upscale
growth and a potential increase in damaging-wind potential into the
early evening as storms spread east-southeastward.  

Storm coverage may remain quite isolated across western portions of
the Level 2/Slight Risk area, due to weak large-scale ascent, but
isolated development will be possible as CINH weakens. The strongly
unstable and sufficiently sheared environment will conditionally
favor a severe threat across parts of southern OK and north TX, if
storms can be sustained.

..Dean.. 04/22/2026


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Despite good
overnight humidity recoveries across portions of the High Plains,
widespread surface RH is decreasing rapidly as temperatures rise and
deeper mixing into a dry airmass aloft ensues. Along the lee of the
Rockies into central MT, surface observations depict poor overnight
humidity recoveries have resulted in widespread 15-25 percent RH
this morning. High cloud cover east of the Divide will slowly clear
out late this morning before more spotty clouds build in this
evening. However, as the surface low strengthens across eastern MT,
strong surface winds and a deepening dry airmass aloft will continue
to support critically low RH atop very dry fuels. A 700 mb 50-70 kt
jet will develop east of the Laramie range through southwestern SD
this evening as the surface low strengthens, dragging a cold front
across the central Plains tonight. Strong west-northwesterly winds
of 20-30 mph will continue behind the front east of the Laramie
Range into the NE Panhandle with RH only increasing to 30-50
percent. These conditions will likely persist through nearly the
entire overnight period, further exacerbating the fire environment. 

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
A robust and progressive upper-level trough will move into the
Northern Rockies through today with an associated strong mid-level
jet stretching from the southern Great Basin to the Northern Plains.
An incipient lee surface low will deepen across eastern MT, while
strengthening lee troughing extends southward into the central and
southern High Plains. The broad southwest flow aloft and surface
troughing will support a expansive fire weather threat across much
of High Plains. Ascent ahead of the upper trough will aid in high
based thunderstorm development along a dry line across portions of
the Central Plains. 

...Southwest and portions of the High Plains...
A broad fire weather concern is still expected across portions of
the Southwest and High Plains corridor. The approaching mid-level
trough and related jet along with strengthening lee surface
troughing amid dry and breezy conditions will promote Critical fire
weather conditions across much of the High Plains, with a more
expansive Elevated fire weather concern into the northern High
Plains and Upper Midwest. The strongest southwest winds of 25-30 mph
will be focused across WY and southeastern MT, more coincident with
the mid-level jet max. Southwest winds of 20-25 mph along the
central and southern High Plains are expected by this afternoon
while downslope trajectories yield single digit RH values atop very
dry and still dormant fuels. Critical fire weather highlights were
maintained for this region with a locally Extremely Critical fire
weather threat, including 30+ mph winds with higher gusts, possible
in favored terrain gaps of the CO Front Range.

...North-central Nebraska into central South Dakota...
Increasing southerly winds approaching 30 mph by mid afternoon
attributed to a deepening surface trough are expected across
portions of NE Sandhills northward into central SD. Delayed boundary
layer moisture return should result in critically low RH of 10-15%
by peak afternoon heating. These conditions combined with very
receptive fuels will promote several hours of critical fire weather
conditions through the early afternoon. Initial influx of
thunderstorms could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts late
this afternoon, before improving conditions including potential for
wetting rains move into the area this evening.

...Far southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, far eastern
Colorado and western KS...
Isolated high based thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
portions of the central Plains stretching southward from
southwestern SD almost to the OK Panhandle. The incoming upper
trough and associated ascent and convergence along the dry line
should allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop by early
afternoon. Deeper boundary layer moisture will reside across the
Southern Plains with precipitable water values of 0.50"-0.70" just
east of the dry line supporting only minimal precipitation as
thunderstorms propagate eastward through the evening. Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights were extended farther south into far
southeastern CO and western KS based on latest forecast guidance.

...Piedmont and portions of Mid Atlantic...
West to southwest winds ahead of a cold front will affect portions
of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont today where fuels remain critically
dry. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph along with RH falling into the 20-25%
during the afternoon will yield elevated fire weather concerns for
southern VA, much of NC and northern SC. An embedded mid-level wave
within broader northwest flow and modest 850 mb northwest winds will
enhance downslope drying in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains in
western NC, resulting in RH of around 15% in some areas by peak
afternoon heating.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Afternoon Update...
Minor expansions were made to the Elevated and Critical highlights
based on high resolution guidance. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains on track. Over the southern Plains, the dryline is not
expected to retreat west of the Caprock overnight Day 1/Wednesday
into Day 2/Thursday, likely producing poor overnight humidity
recoveries for the western half of the TX Panhandle into eastern NM.
A 700-850 mb jet will strengthen from eastern NM into the TX
Panhandle Thursday afternoon as a surface low develops over southern
KS and northwestern OK. Minimal cloud cover should yield better
boundary layer mixing, allowing for RH of less than 10 percent and
sustained westerly winds up to 25 mph. Locally extremely critical
conditions may arise in gap-flow regions of southeastern CO and
terrain-favored areas from eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle
where 30 mph sustained winds and RH in the single digits superimpose
very dry fuels. 

Dry post frontal winds will traverse the High Plains where IsoDryT
highlights existed on Day 1/Wednesday. An Elevated fire weather
threat exists where any ongoing wildfires and/or holdovers from
lightning ignitions emerge as a result of a prolonged fire
environment. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough and associated mid level jet will eject into central
U.S. Thursday while a surface trough and cold front push farther
east into the Upper Midwest and central Plains. More significant
fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern Plains,
south of an advancing cold front where a corridor of strong
southwest winds, critically low RH and receptive fuels align to
bring Critical fire weather conditions to the region.

...Southern and Central Plains...
The pronounced 60-70 knot mid-level jet at the base of an upper
trough entering the Southwest and Southern Plains, in addition to
continued surface troughing farther east, will promote intense
downslope drying and strong west to southwest winds across much of
eastern NM and northwest TX Thursday where Critical Highlights were
maintained. West to southwest winds of 20-25 mph, RH near or below
10% and dry fuels will align to bring a critical fire weather threat
to the region. Farther north, dry post-frontal northwest winds, with
some downslope enhancement in areas adjacent to CO Front Range will
support an elevated fire weather threat for portions of the Central
Plains to include eastern CO, much of NE and western KS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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