SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 6 06:04:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul  6 06:04:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jul 6 06:04:02 UTC 2026

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul  6 06:04:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Jul 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More
isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower
Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet
streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest
Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger
mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a
vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a
mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate
short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian
disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley,
while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through
central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low
development along the trough over central VA.


...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide
with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to
strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with
MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will
combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered
thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent
storm development is possible along the front as far south as
northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening. 

The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the
Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely
perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear
possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail
potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less
than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the
period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more
robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good
agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear
system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated
risk for severe wind gusts.

Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into
northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm
modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible with the strongest storms.


...Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming...

The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be
attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance
vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from
the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and
at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal
that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic
supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging
winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat
currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities.


...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high
as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical
shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and  backdoor
front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid
afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely
organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of
steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a
risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if
a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in
future model data.  


...Lower Mississippi Valley...

Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the
synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from
AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain
relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to
strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will
support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of
damaging winds and marginally severe hail.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/06/2026


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SPC Jul 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster
with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late
Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern
South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota.  Other thunderstorm
clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and
southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

...Discussion...
It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less
progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday.
As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic
latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only
slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the
northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly
pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing,
comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within
the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S.,
is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies.  As it does,
models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level
ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday
night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and
southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast.  It
appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern
New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear
axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into
southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined,
quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.

...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of
elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across
the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger
boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong
destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon.  Guidance suggests that
this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold
front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew
points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg.

Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains
uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent
associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations.  Once this
occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least
marginally supportive of supercell structures.  Particularly by late
Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the
evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears
possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward.
 
...Mid Atlantic...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with
highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along
and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon.  Although embedded
within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less,
thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and
modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger
storms.  

There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm
advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster
propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening,
with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a
consolidating gust front.

...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus
higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across
the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak
mid-level cyclonic circulation.  Aided by inflow of moderate
potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by
potential for a few strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026


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