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Updated:
5/18/2025
04:19:56am

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
WW 283 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 180250Z - 180900ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Arkansas Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for large hail this evening into the early overnight hours. The largest hailstones may reach up to 1-2 inches in diameter. There is also some chance for a cluster of thunderstorms to form over the next few hours. If this occurs, then the threat for severe/damaging winds would increase as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Chickasha OK to 5 miles east southeast of Fort Smith AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...WW 281...WW 282... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...GleasonRead more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283 Status Reports
WW 0283 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONERRead more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282 Status Reports
WW 0282 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW LLQ TO 35 NNE TXK TO 35 NNE DEQ. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-025-039-051-053-059-097-109-127-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLEVELAND DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PIKE SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun May 18 09:15:06 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 18 09:15:06 UTC 2025.
SPC May 18, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. The potential for a few strong tornadoes exists across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains... Strong upper trough is digging southeast across the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the Four Corners region by 18z as 500mb speed max translates across AZ into NM. By early evening, strongest mid-level flow is forecast to extend across northeast NM into western KS. This evolution will suppress the height field across the central High Plains such that large-scale forcing will likely influence the dry line as far south as I-40 near the TX/OK border. While several 00z models struggle to develop convection along the dry line, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the southern High Plains. Zero-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by late afternoon as surface temperatures soar through the mid 90s across the eastern TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains. As a result, deep thermals are expected and isolated thunderstorms should develop as CINH will prove minimal. Scattered convection is currently noted across northeast OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. This activity will likely persist into the early parts of the day1 period. Strongest low-level moisture surge should be across western OK into extreme southwest KS as LLJ will focus across this portion of the Plains early in the period. While early-day convection may generate locally severe hail/wind, the primary concern for severe will be with late-day convection. Current thinking is strong heating along the dry line will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development as convective temperatures are breached, sometime after 22z. Primary corridor for initiation should be across southwest KS into northwest OK. This activity will be strongly sheared and supercells should mature quickly as they move northeast toward/across the warm front draped downstream across KS. Very large hail and tornadoes are certainly a concern with surface-based convection, while hail is the primary concern with elevated convection north of the warm front. It's not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/18/2025Read more
SPC May 18, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift from the Intermountain West into the central Plains on Monday. A moderate to strong mid-level jet streak will emerge along the southern periphery of this trough from the Southwest into the central/southern Plains. A surface low in Nebraska will gradually consolidate southward and deepen as the mid-level jet emerges across the southern Plains. A sharp dryline will be present from central Kansas to central Oklahoma and north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from near Omaha to the lower Ohio Valley and remain mostly stationary during the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the warm front in the northern Missouri border vicinity on Monday morning. Otherwise, a mostly convection-free warm sector is expected to the south. Very strong instability will develop along and east of the dryline with convective temperatures likely reached by early afternoon. As large scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough overspreads the dryline, expect scattered supercells to develop along the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma. Very large to potentially giant hail will be possible with these supercells initially. In addition, hodographs will support tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase through the afternoon and peak during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level shear increases. However, by this time, storm mode could be messy which is one factor precluding higher probabilities at this time. 00Z CAM guidance shows a range of solutions including: 1. Earlier storms as the primary threat. 2. Delayed dryline initiation with a potential tornado outbreak type solution across central/eastern Kansas and central/eastern Oklahoma. 3. A combination of both solutions. The uncertainty in guidance at this time precludes a moderate risk, but higher probabilities may be needed when a more favored solution becomes more clear, especially if one of the higher-end scenarios appears likely. ..Bentley.. 05/18/2025Read more
SPC May 18, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will stall and perhaps start to retrograde across parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday. A surface low in the MO/IL region will start to occlude during the day. A cold front will move east through the period with a warm front across the Ohio Valley. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing amid broad isentropic ascent and moderate elevated instability along the warm front in southern Illinois and Indiana and vicinity on Monday morning. South of this morning activity, where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop amid daytime heating. As 55 to 65 knots of mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, strong shear will be present for supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, as low-level flow will likely be veered. However, low-level shear should be strong enough to support some tornado threat during the afternoon/evening. As storms grow upscale, one or more bowing segments may develop with an increased damaging wind threat during the evening and perhaps persisting into the overnight period. ..Bentley.. 05/18/2025Read more
SPC May 18, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 OutlookDay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time.Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
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