SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 22 07:46:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Jan 22, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western
Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave
perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but
not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south
of the northern U.S. Rockies.  This will reinforce larger scale
troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States. 
Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and
Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable
boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate.  It appears that
another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great
Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of
arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and
northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday.

..Kerr.. 01/22/2025


Read more

SPC Jan 22, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS,
with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great
Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough
will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and
into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS
Valley into Friday morning. 

Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow
above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms
remain unlikely.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2025


Read more

SPC Jan 22, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across
the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East
Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft
across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will
develop southward into parts of the northwestern states.

At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the
Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore
winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will
occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is
forecast due to cold surface conditions.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2025


Read more

SPC Jan 22, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early,
with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern
states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located
around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating
eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or
cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging
develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High
pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and
stable conditions.

By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower
MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop,
and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the
MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial
clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely.

This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in
place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across
parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer
conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe
changes.

For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the
Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains,
but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature.


Read more