SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 24 01:04:01 UTC 2017

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 24 01:04:01 UTC 2017.

SPC MD 1412

MD 1412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS
        

Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Areas affected...North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240051Z - 240245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible this
evening across North Texas.

DISCUSSION...Several areas of storms have produced outflow
boundaries across the region, but the area across North Texas
including the Metroplex, remains in a pocket of strong instability
as seen on 00Z FWD sounding. The strongest outflow surge is
currently approaching the Red River from the north, and may be a
focus for new development farther south. Already, a few vigorous
updrafts were initiating across parts of northwest Texas, where
temperatures were near 100 F. 

Further, several of the latest CAMs show scattered storms developing
in this area. While likely a disorganized multicell threat, a few
strong to severe wind gusts are possible with any new activity this
evening.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 07/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32239704 32289753 32369784 32909854 33169898 33859923
            34099897 34169854 33809795 33509736 33459668 33389635
            33169617 32659610 32269627 32239704 


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SPC Jul 24, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PART OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with downburst winds will continue
through mid evening over portions of the Ohio Valley and from
Oklahoma and extreme north Texas into portions of the Tennessee
Valley area. Other strong storms with downburst winds will remain
over a portion of Arizona next few hours. However, overall tendency
will be for storms to gradually undergo a decrease in coverage and
intensity through the evening.

...Ohio Valley area...

Several clusters of storms persist in association with ascent
attending upper vorticity maxima embedded within a broad cyclonic
flow regime. The atmosphere remains marginally to moderately
unstable in this region with 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE along with modest
west northwesterly flow. A few strong to damaging wind gusts remain
possible with the stronger activity, but a weakening trend should
commence over most of this area with onset of nocturnal cooling.

...Oklahoma through the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas...

Numerous clusters of pulse and multicell storms continue developing
from OK through the TN Valley and portions of the Carolinas.
Vertical shear is weak in this region, but moderate instability,
high precipitable water and steep low-level lapse rates will
continue support a few locally strong to severe wind gusts. However,
a stabilizing boundary layer will result in a gradual weakening
trend. 

For more information on south OK and north TX severe threat
reference swomcd 1412.

...southwest Arizona...

At least light northeasterly winds aloft will promote slow southwest
propagation of storms developing along the Rim. Deeply mixed
inverted-V boundary layers will promote a few locally strong to
damaging wind gusts as activity develops southwestward next few
hours.

..Dial.. 07/24/2017


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