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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131

WW 131 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 202105Z - 210200Z
      
WW 0131 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  parts of southern and eastern North Carolina
  part of eastern South Carolina
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
  1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered strong/severe thunderstorms
are forecast to continue spreading east-southeastward across
portions of the Carolinas this afternoon.  Large hail, and locally
damaging wind gusts, can be expected with the most intense storms,
before moving offshore this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of New
Bern NC to 35 miles west of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29040.

...Goss

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 Status Reports

WW 0131 Status Updates
      
WW 0131 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 131

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRE
TO 20 NW FLO TO 35 SSW SOP TO 55 SSE EWN.

..WEINMAN..04/21/24

ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...CAE...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 131 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-210140-

NC 
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLADEN               BRUNSWICK           COLUMBUS            
NEW HANOVER          PENDER              ROBESON             


SCC033-043-051-067-069-210140-

SC 
.    SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DILLON               GEORGETOWN          HORRY               
MARION               MARLBORO            


AMZ250-252-254-256-210140-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM 
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SPC MD 502

MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
MD 0502 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Areas affected...South-central into deep south TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 210046Z - 210215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may evolve with time this evening,
with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently increased in coverage
and intensity north of a cold front across western portions of
south-central TX, with recent initiation noted farther south near a
stationary front, north of Laredo. Confidence in greater storm
coverage this evening is higher with northward extent, where
elevated convection may continue to evolve within an environment
characterized by MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (as noted in the 00Z DRT
sounding) and sufficient effective shear for some storm
organization. Isolated hail will be possible within this regime as
storms spread eastward with time. 

Near-term storm potential farther south remains more uncertain, with
generally nebulous large-scale ascent across the region, and some
nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected with time. However, the
environment south of the deeper post-frontal cold air is
conditionally favorable for severe storms, with steep midlevel lapse
rates atop rich low-level moisture supporting MLCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg. If a supercell can evolve within this regime, there would
be at least an isolated threat of large to very large hail
(approaching 2 inches in diameter), along with some threat for
severe gusts with convection that remains rooted closer to the
surface. Watch issuance is possible, if supercell development within
this more favorable environment appears imminent.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28050022 28520043 29779985 29769811 28009808 27019871
            26799929 27129981 28050022 

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify across the eastern U.S. as
an upper-level ridge builds over the Plains states through the
middle of the week. Strong northwesterly downslope flow across the
northern High Plains may support at least locally Elevated fire
weather conditions Day 3/Monday afternoon. Thereafter, medium-range
guidance agrees that a series of mid-level troughs will eject into
the Plains states Days 6-8 (Thursday-Saturday), supporting multiple
instances of surface-cyclone development and the eastward
progression of a dryline. For each day Thursday-Saturday, critically
dry and windy conditions are expected behind the dryline over the
southern High Plains. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been
introduced where guidance consensus and consistency is greatest in
depicting overlapping favorable winds/RH to support significant
wildfire-spread potential.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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