SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 06:54:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 06:54:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 51

MD 0051 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO

Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Southern Illinois into southern Indiana and
southwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 250500Z - 251100Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow band development is anticipated through the
next several hours across portions of the Ohio River Valley.
Snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour appear probable later tonight.

DISCUSSION...A broad band of heavier precipitation is beginning to
emerge from northern AR into the lower OH Valley per regional radar
mosaics over the past 1-2 hours. This comes amid strengthening
frontogenesis through a deep layer (925-700 mb per recent
mesoanalyses) as the primary upper wave begins to migrate eastward
into the southern Plains. Latest forecast guidance shows
intensifying frontogenesis across the lower MS Valley into the OH
Valley through 09-12 UTC, which will support further
organization/intensification of a focused mesoscale precipitation
band. With mid-level temperatures below freezing north of the OH
River, snow should remain the predominant precipitation type.
Moderate snowfall rates will be common with a focused corridor of
higher rates (in excess of 1 inch/hour) likely. Per recent ensemble
guidance, this corridor will most likely emerge across southern IL
into southern IN and southwest OH. 

These solutions also depict optimal banding potential during the
09-12 UTC period later tonight into early Sunday morning. However,
recent ASOS/AWOS observations from southern IL and southern IN have
shown an uptick in snowfall intensity (denoted by reduced
visibilities to 1/2 mile or less) over the past hour. These trends
suggest that the onset of heavier snowfall rates may commence
earlier than currently anticipated by most guidance as intermittent
moderate to heavy snow bands becomes more prominent with time.

..Moore.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39118269 39008330 38248609 37788746 37478836 37358887
            37458924 37648940 38458944 38728928 38968886 40158461
            40308388 40298326 40208288 39988248 39738234 39498228
            39248243 39118269 

SPC MD 50

MD 0050 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of south-central/eastern Texas into
western Louisiana

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 250452Z - 250845Z

SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet likely overnight into early
Sunday.

DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and occasional sleet has been ongoing
from the San Antonio Metro to College Station, TX. There are reports
of freezing rain accumulations around 0.05-0.10 of an inch in 3
hours. Guidance indicates that coverage of precipitation will
increase over the next several hours across south-central Texas into
western Louisiana as large scale ascent continues to increase.

Forecast RAP soundings depict a warm layer around 850 mb above more
shallow sub-freezing air near the surface supporting the primary
precipitation type to be freezing rain. HREF guidance indicates
increasing probabilities of at least 0.05 of an inch per 3 hr
freezing rainfall rates along and north of the I-10 corridor
overnight into early Sunday morning. Sleet will remain possible at
times in heavier bands, especially with further north extent into
the deeper cold air across northeastern Texas.

..Thornton.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33029441 33029358 32499340 31919337 31389351 30919376
            30329476 29769676 29709764 29579959 30230014 31389854
            32759559 33029441 

SPC Jan 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Gulf Coast States...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z.
Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and
a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the
Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern
LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance
suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the
surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly
100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where
surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer
shear, convection that develops within this environment would have
some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these
reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for
morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026


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SPC Jan 25, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great
Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper
trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward
and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West.
At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central
and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic
coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs
with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development
inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining
instability offshore.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2026


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread
precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will
continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an
arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast
and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels
across the Southern Plains.

..Thornton.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS.
Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued
widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent
precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to
mitigate any potential fire risk.

..Thornton.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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