SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 16 00:47:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 16 00:47:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jun 16 00:47:02 UTC 2026

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 16 00:47:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Jun 16, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may continue to pose at least some
risk for severe weather through mid to late evening across parts of
the southern high plains.

...01Z Update...
A subtle short wave impulse digging across the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity appeared to provide support for the
ongoing cluster of thunderstorms now overspreading the New
Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, near and northwest of Clovis. 
Some discrete thunderstorm development persists southwest of Clovis,
and to the north/northwest of Roswell, which could pose a risk for
severe hail another hour or two.  Otherwise, updraft inflow into the
primary cluster already appears to be coming characterized by less
instability, based on latest mesoanalysis and convective trends.  As
this continues, convection appears likely to weaken further with
diminishing potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts
through 02-03Z.

Farther north, convergence near a weak surface low to the
north-northeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity finally appears to be
supporting the initiation of isolated thunderstorm development near
Springfield, CO.  In the presence of steep-lapse rates, low-level
moistening appears to have become supportive of CAPE up to 1000
J/kg.  Beneath 30-35 kt northwesterly winds around 500 mb, shear
appears to conducive to the evolution of a supercell which could
persist for an hour or two this evening, before acquiring more
stable inflow while tending to propagate southeastward.

..Kerr.. 06/16/2026


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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
CONUS through late this week as an upper low remains anchored over
the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Wednesday, eventually
breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday.
Consequently, some isolated dry thunderstorm potential alongside dry
and breezy conditions with above normal temperatures (and resultant
dry fuels) will support expansive fire concerns through the
remainder of the forecast period. 

...Day 3/Wednesday - Portions of the Great Basin, Colorado Plateau,
and central Plains...
The western upper ridge will dampen and slide eastward towards the
Continental Divide as troughing moves onshore the West Coast. A
60-70 kt jet will expand from northern MT through the Central States
as a southward progressing surface low sends a dry cold front
through the Great Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradients and
post frontal west-northwesterly flow will promote dry and breezy
conditions across the region where dry fuels exist, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities.

...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday - Parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin...
As upper-level troughing moves onshore the West Coast, above normal
temperatures are forecast across the Pacific Northwest on Day
5/Friday. Increasing mid-level moisture and synoptic scale lift
should bring increased chances for thunderstorms as the trough moves
inland. Given preceding days of warm and dry conditions and
coincident curing fuels, the isolated nature of thunderstorm
development could pose a threat for lightning ignitions across a
very dry environment. Fast storm motions, high cloud bases, and
locally breezy conditions support 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities
on Day 5/Friday, and again on Day 6/Saturday as the potential shifts
eastward. Increasing southerly to westerly flow across the Southwest
will transport very dry air and breezy conditions amid 90th
percentile ERCs, promoting continued fire concerns in the Great
Basin through the weekend. Spatial extent of the aforementioned risk
areas may fluctuate as guidance is better resolved in future outlook
cycles.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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