SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 27 06:05:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 27 06:05:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Sep 27 06:05:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 27 06:05:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Sep 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the southeastern U.S.
today, as a ridge remains over the central U.S. A low will remain
over southern California. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
place ahead of the trough in the Southeast, and in parts of southern
Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon in these two areas, but the combination of instability,
lift and shear should be insufficient for severe storms. No severe
threat is expected across the remainder of the continental U.S.
today and tonight.

..Broyles/Moore.. 09/27/2025


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SPC Sep 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the large-scale pattern evolution through this period. 
It still appears that amplified troughing within the mid-latitude
westerlies will continue to slowly advance inland of the North
American Pacific coast.  As this occurs, downstream ridging across
the Canadian Prairies likely will become more amplified, while flow
farther east trends broadly cyclonic across the eastern Canadian
provinces through the northwestern Atlantic.  

Within the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes to the south and
east of this regime, shorter wavelength developments within
generally weak flow remain more unclear due to model
spread.  However, broad, weak mid-level troughing may continue to
shift east-northeast of the lower Colorado Valley through the
southern Rockies, while large-scale weak mid-level troughing lingers
across the Southeast, to the southeast of developing high over the
Midwest.  At the same time, a pair of evolving tropical cyclones may
continue to progress west-northwestward across parts of the
southwestern Atlantic through Bahamas vicinity, to the southwest of
a notable high centered near Bermuda.

Similar to Saturday, due to generally weak deep-layer mean wind
fields and rather modest to weak diurnal destabilization, the risk
for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. appears negligible. 
However, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm development
appears probable across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies,
as well as across parts of the Southeast.

..Kerr.. 09/27/2025


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. 
Weak upper troughs over the lower CO River Valley and the Southeast
evident in water-vapor imagery will meander across the Southwest and
southeastern states (respectively) for today, maintaining isolated
to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances. Across the northern Plains,
early-morning surface observations show high pressure building
across the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Breezy
winds on the northwestern periphery of the surface high are
anticipated across eastern MT and across the western Dakotas. Based
on latest ensemble guidance, wind speeds should generally remain in
the 10-15 mph range. Gusts upwards of 20-25 mph seem possible amid
somewhat deep mixing within a downslope flow regime. While a few
areas may see periods of elevated fire weather conditions, the
overall signal for prolonged and/or widespread elevated conditions
remains too limited for highlights.

..Moore.. 09/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will likely remain limited for Sunday across
the country. Latest forecast guidance shows reasonably good
agreement in the gradual decay of the upper trough currently over
the lower CO River Valley. The remnants of this trough will lift
north/northeastward towards the central Rockies through the day,
resulting in a northward shift of scattered showers/thunderstorms.
This feature will also support modest surface pressure falls across
the High Plains, resulting in increasing southerly winds from
western KS into NE and SD. Although most guidance suggests sustained
winds in the 15-20 mph range are possible, a modest influx of
moisture should mitigate RH reductions to some degree. Furthermore,
fuel conditions across the western Plains are currently not
favorable for rapid fire spread.

..Moore.. 09/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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