SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 21 10:31:02 UTC 2024

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 21 10:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Dec 21 10:31:02 UTC 2024

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 21 10:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Dec 21, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS on
Sunday. A continental polar airmass will remain across the eastern
CONUS which will preclude thunderstorm potential for most of the
country. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest and northern California coasts, particularly Sunday late
afternoon and evening as the next in a series of shortwave troughs
approaches the coast. Severe storms are not currently expected given
the limited buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024


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SPC Dec 21, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify over the Rockies and High
Plains in advance of a more prominent upper trough approaching the
California coast Monday night. Modest low-level moisture return will
occur across Texas in advance of a southeastward-moving cold front
crossing the southern High Plains and parts of Texas. The potential
for elevated thunderstorms should increase Monday night particularly
across North Texas and south-central/eastern Oklahoma to the
ArkLaTex. This will be as forcing for ascent and elevated moisture
transport increase regionally. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024


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SPC Dec 21, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with
several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along
with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day
4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing
thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas.
Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that
overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently
expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.

An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be
into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time
frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the
Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead
to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the
ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will
be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering
risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given
the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold
front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15%
outlook areas.


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold air mass
encompasses much of the central and eastern CONUS. Weak surface lee
troughing may result in locally breezy conditions over portions of
the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions
will preclude fire-weather concerns.

..Weinman.. 12/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A cold air mass will remain in place across the eastern half of the
CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Farther west, a shortwave
trough will cross the northern Rockies, while a related lee
trough/cyclone briefly deepens over the High Plains. This will favor
a few corridors of breezy surface winds, though any overlap with
warm/dry conditions appears too minimal/brief for a fire-weather
threat.

..Weinman.. 12/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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