58°F
Updated:
9/13/2024
05:35:47am
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 13 08:45:02 UTC 2024
No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 13 08:45:02 UTC 2024.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 13 08:45:02 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 13 08:45:02 UTC 2024.
SPC Sep 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024Read more
SPC Sep 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024Read more
SPC Sep 13, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... At least isolated thunderstorm potential is evident across a larger portion of the CONUS on D3, but the threat for organized severe storms remains negligible. A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine anchored in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will amplify a closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA by Monday morning. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream may yield a broadening swath of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West with only scant/meager buoyancy north of AZ. Afternoon buoyancy should be largest across parts of the central High to northern Great Plains. This could support a few strong, sub-severe storms around to just after peak heating, amid weak/modest deep-layer shear and a benign synoptic pattern. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024Read more
SPC Sep 13, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 OutlookDay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance has trended increasingly consistent with the evolution of a closed mid/upper low initially over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday. This low should become an open wave as it pivots northeast towards the northern High Plains by late Tuesday, likely inducing surface cyclogenesis in the eastern MT vicinity. Despite increasing agreement in track/timing, the consensus trend is for a weakening mid-level jet ejection, in the meridional flow regime ahead of the trough. As such, the amplitude of the severe-storm risk is still uncertain, but an area of interest for a future 15 percent highlight remains evident across the northern High Plains. This shortwave trough should dampen and slow as it encroaches on the persistent blocking pattern in the East. In the wake of this wave, the next in a series of shortwave impulses should amplify along the Pacific Coast mid-week. Thereafter, predictability drops considerably by late week.Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
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