SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 26 08:56:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 26 08:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jun 26 08:56:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 26 08:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Jun 26, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this
afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.  Isolated
wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern
Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana.

...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon...
A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection,
will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along
with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. 
Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and
MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band
of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon.  The
initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential
to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and
marginally severe hail.  Convection will likely grow upscale into a
line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish
by late evening.

...Southeast today...
Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY,
a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and
weaken gradually through tonight.  Widespread convection is still
ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively
widespread convective overturning and associated outflow.  Remnant
outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though
regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday
will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging
downbursts compared to Wednesday.  Given the mesoscale complexity of
the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on
adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook.  However, some
part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. 

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in
association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior
convection, and terrain circulations.  Though vertical shear will be
weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading
could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid
afternoon into the evening.

...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along
and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the
strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume
now across west TX.  Vertical shear will be weak through this
corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts
and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few
hours this afternoon/evening.

...MT this afternoon/evening...
A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move
across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight.  Deep
mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for
strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms
along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this
evening.

..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025


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SPC Jun 26, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are
forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and
evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and
into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into
the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the
western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day.
To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower
Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air
mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and
eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area.
The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in
advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain
over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime
storm development.

...Northern Plains...
Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface
trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO
into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas.
Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger
flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and
perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep
mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage.
Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and
northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. 

...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...
A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and
into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will
again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse
rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as
previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may
still occur during the afternoon across the entire region.

..Jewell.. 06/26/2025


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SPC Jun 26, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be
possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day
on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a
low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This
will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with
MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and
IA.

A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into
central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e
with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be
storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east
and persist through evening.

While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse
rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial
robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk,
before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds
likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening
may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late.

Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon
storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized
strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to
denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat.

..Jewell.. 06/26/2025


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SPC Jun 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern
Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great
Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will
stretch across into the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to
central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS
Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south
on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern
Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7
as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley.

For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead
of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F
dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will
be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest
propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given
substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to
upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting
precise risk areas.

A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop
into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast
trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt
at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from
this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and
instability remain in place in a weak shear environment.


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today
across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds
of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of
the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums
in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is
expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions
won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough.
Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of
southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions,
receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most
probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak
signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which
limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat.

..Moore.. 06/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of
central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal
flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced
surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday
compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will
likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern
Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most
locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY
will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid
teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY
Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment
surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent
gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the
teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and
periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY
are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of
dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer
fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the
Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in
sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the
Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry.

..Moore.. 06/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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