74°F
Updated:
7/26/2024
10:27:00pm
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 27 01:47:01 UTC 2024
No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 27 01:47:01 UTC 2024.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Jul 27 01:47:01 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 27 01:47:01 UTC 2024.
SPC Jul 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST NV INTO WESTERN UT...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the Dakotas into northwest Minnesota, Great Basin, and Arizona. ...Northern High Plains into eastern ND and northwest MN... A few strong storms have developed from eastern ND into northwest MN, in the vicinity of a weak cold front. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt could support a supercell or two through the evening, with a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1714 for more information. Farther southwest, high-based convection is ongoing across parts of the northern High Plains, which could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts through the evening. Elevated convection may increase later tonight and spread northeastward along/north of the cold front from northern SD into eastern ND and northwest MN, which could pose a threat of gusty winds and some hail. ...Central into southeast AZ... Occasional strong storms have been noted from central into southeast AZ through the afternoon, mainly in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Multiple areas of outflow are spreading southward, though with rather strong MLCINH in place, potential for substantial development into the lower elevations is uncertain. Some threat for strong to isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out through the evening, though confidence is low. ...Great Basin... Isolated strong storms remain possible this evening across parts of west-central/northwest UT. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and effective shear around 30 kt were noted on the 00Z SLC sounding, and briefly organized storms could pose a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. Another round of convection is possible later tonight from northeast NV into western UT, in advance of an approaching shortwave trough. A residual well-mixed boundary layer could support locally gusty winds with this later convection. ..Dean.. 07/27/2024Read more
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