SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 7 01:04:01 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov  7 01:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Nov 7 01:04:01 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov  7 01:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Nov 7, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Great Plains tonight,
as flow becomes west-southwesterly across much of the eastern half
of the nation. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
trough over parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern
Great Lakes. Additional storms may form in far eastern Florida and
in the Pacific Northwest. Very weak instability in these areas will
eliminate any severe potential through tonight.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2025


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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
A strong cold front will sweep southeastward across the eastern U.S.
through the weekend. With deeper boundary layer moisture confined to
the Southeast, dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will pose a
fire weather threat to portions of the central Plains Day
3/Saturday, reaching southern TX by Day 4/Sunday. Lingering effects
of dry, offshore flow could bring fire weather concerns back to the
far southeast/FL Panhandle on Day 5/Monday. As the highly amplified
upper trough pushes through eastern Seaboard and lee troughing
across the Plains redevelops, dry and breezy southerly flow returns
to the southern Plains by Day 6/Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions and
generally light winds will persist through at least through the
middle of next week under a persistent upper-level ridge. 

...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
Gusty north-northwest winds behind a cold front across the central
and southern Plains are likely across portions of eastern CO/western
KS on Saturday. A mid-level jet will should reinforce downslope
drying in the lee of the CO Rockies. This combination of winds and
low RH amid dry fuels and cured grasses should present an enhanced
fire weather threat where 40% critical probabilities highlight this
potential. Fire weather concerns shift southward into southern TX on
Sunday as the cold front brings stronger north winds to the state.
Rainfall deficits and dry fuels along with dry northerly flow behind
the front should increase wildfire spread potential across southern
TX where 40% probabilities remain.

...Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday...
Some precipitation is expected with the frontal passage across the
Southeast over the weekend before a dry, continental air mass shunts
any worthwhile moisture offshore by Day 5/Monday. Extended forecast
guidance shows portions of the Southeast could evade a more
significant rain event prior to the arrival of dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions (particularly across the Carolina Piedmont,
southern GA and Fl Panhandle), limiting confidence in introducing
probabilities at this time. Farther west, dry return flow on the
western periphery of a surface high pressure across the Southeast
and deepening lee troughing across the Plains is still likely to
bring fire weather concerns back into portions of central TX on Day
6/Tuesday, where 40% critical probabilities persist.

...Day 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday...
Increasing forecast uncertainty from ensemble guidance emerges mid
to late week regarding upper-level pattern, reducing overall
predictability of broader fire weather threats across CONUS.

..Williams.. 11/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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