SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed May 6 18:42:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Wed May  6 18:42:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 653

MD 0653 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ADJACENT WESTERN ALABAMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Louisiana...central
and southern Mississippi...adjacent western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061657Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms initiating over the next few hours
may begin to more substantively intensify and organize by 3-5 PM
CDT, if not perhaps a bit earlier.  A tornado watch likely will be
needed at some point, though timing remains a bit uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection is contributing to a deepening moist boundary across much
of Louisiana through southern and central Mississippi, beneath warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air.  Surface dew points across
this region are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, with breaks in
cloud cover beginning to contribute to destabilization which may
become characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg
by late afternoon.

Erosion of inhibition from below has been accompanied by the
development of scattered showers, with isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms likely to continue to gradually initiate over the next
few hours.  Particularly toward 20-21Z, when Rapid Refresh suggests
that a low amplitude wave migrating through the crest of broader
ridging aloft may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls, more
substantive intensification appears increasingly probable.  This is
likely to include organizing supercells in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear.  

Although enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may
remain modest even with some strengthening of southwesterly flow
around 850 mb later this afternoon, profiles may still become
conducive to the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, given
the saturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with high moisture
content.  Otherwise, the more discrete stronger cells probably will
be accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail.  The
southward advancing, and undercutting, surface cold front to the
north seems likely to provide the northern limit to this threat,
with the stronger mid-level ridging/capping providing the southern
limit near and inland of coastal areas.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32219123 32628988 32878902 32948765 31668761 30728797
            30318952 30739078 30849237 31869230 32219123 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC May 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians.  Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves.  Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians.  South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight.  A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front.  Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon.  Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS.  Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening.  Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms.  The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe.  Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode.  Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist 
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

..Smith/Thompson.. 05/06/2026


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SPC May 6, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN TEXAS NEAR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated
large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle
Rio Grand Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on
Thursday, with leading speed max aloft sweeping across the TN Valley
and toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push
south across the Carolinas, with western portions of the front
stalling near the central Gulf Coast.

To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will persist from northern
Mexico into TX as an upper low drifts east, with high pressure at
the surface but elevated instability in place.

...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the cold front
Thursday morning, from southeast LA across GA and into the
Carolinas. A few storms could still be severe from southeast AL into
central GA as the previous nights activity persists. Strong wind
gusts or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at that time as
SRH will be maximized above 200 m2/s2. Given the veering low-level
winds with time and associated midlevel drying/subsidence later in
the day, the severe risk may diminish by afternoon.

...Middle Rio Grande Vicinity...
While lift will be weak, it appears enough lift via warm advection
above the stable surface layer may support isolated storm
development early on Thursday. Winds around 850 mb will be out of
the southeast at 10-15 kt, with indications by some models of hail
potential. Uncertainty exists regarding degree of elevated
instability, but effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer
conditionally favor hail.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2026


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track. Recent surface analysis placed a cold
front from south-central CO through far eastern NM into the TX Hill
Country. Marginal overnight humidity recoveries occurred for
southeastern NM, however, West Texas did not experience good
recoveries. Current surface observations depict RH values of 20-30
percent across the region, gradually decreasing under clearing skies
and afternoon heating. While ERCs have declined due to recent
appreciable rainfall, localized fire weather concerns may emerge
where dry and breezy conditions align with sporadic dry fuels. See
the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80
knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an
elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends
southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A
deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry,
downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west
TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft.

...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an
evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West
TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15%
along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary
layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall
wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets
of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns
particularly across the Cap Rock area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift
into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of
showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and
Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the
frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of
eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S.
will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region.


...Florida Peninsula...
Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the
FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday.
Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a
dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm
temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the
25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather
concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated
Highlights have been introduced.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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