SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 16 17:46:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 16 17:46:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 463

MD 0463 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT

Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York...and
southern Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161736Z - 161930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail should increase through
the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW issuance may
be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The mid-level trough over the Great Lakes is impinging
on the Northeast, with some heating beneath a cirrus plume
supporting boundary layer mixing/destabilization. Surface
temperatures are approaching 80 F in spots, with convective
temperatures close to being breached (based in RAP forecast
soundings). Visible satellite depicts a rapidly developing CU field
beneath the cirrus, and the approach of the upper trough should
provide added lift for ascent over central into eastern NY over the
next few hours. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading 60+ F
surface dewpoints, yielding close to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, which should
further increase into the afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow aloft
from the approaching mid-level trough is also contributing to over
50 kts of effective bulk shear. This speed shear and aforementioned
instability will support multicells and supercells once storms
initiate and mature. Severe wind and hail are both the main
concerns, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Convective
trends are being monitored for potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43087861 43437703 43657598 43827411 43687328 43397275
            43017270 42637404 42517449 42387577 42317716 42207790
            42307842 43087861 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC Apr 16, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats.  Large to very large hail is possible
with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.

...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across
south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid
the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates
are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture
advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as
well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass
(i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon.
Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place,
resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions
that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very
large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of
developing storms in this area, which match observational
expectations as well. Large to very large hail  (1 to 3 inches in
diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells.
Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none
zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present,
supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, 
supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region
(particular eastern areas) as well.

...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern
Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface
troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower
MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day
despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in
airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a
general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the
afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is
anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development
over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective
line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample
mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a
risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete
cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that
evolve over time.  An isolated threat for wind damage and  perhaps
hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau,
where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.

...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...
A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop
along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through
the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is
expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon,
some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving
out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by
early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough
to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level
flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will
result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of
large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken
quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/16/2026


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SPC Apr 16, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains
during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into
upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the
entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level
temperatures will already be relatively cool.

During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,
with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and
northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI
during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the
cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass
ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the
evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from
Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.

The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample
moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,
including all modes of severe. 

...From IA into WI and northwest IL...
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early
evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While
convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in
a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,
along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and
near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape
late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z
ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,
conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to
indicate stronger tornado potential.

Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with
damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake
MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and
lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet
brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.

...OK/KS/MO...
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front
Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several
tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer
shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while
the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and
likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support
tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity
is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of
destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much
of MO and into northern OK through the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Central and northern High Plains...
A surface low will deepen in the northern and central Plains ahead
of an approaching upper-level trough currently traversing the
Northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and
consolidating surface pressure gradient will aid in developing gusty
south to southwest winds accompanied by a dry, well-mixed boundary
later across much of the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
A corridor of stronger southerly winds is expected across portions
of eastern SD and southwestern MN although RH reductions should be
limited to the 20-25% range this afternoon. Nonetheless, receptive
fuels coupled with the increasing southerly winds in place could
support wildfire spread, necessitating a northeastward extension of
Elevated Highlights into this region.

...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing extends southward from the evolving surface
low in the Northern Plains into the central and southern High
Plains. A considerably drier boundary layer and supportive downslope
trajectories will allow for Critical fire weather conditions across
portions of eastern CO, northeastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles. Poor
relative humidity recoveries were observed across portions of the
southern High Plains, with current RH at 10% or below across
southeastern NM and northwest TX. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid
the presence of a 90F+ low-level thermal ridge and RH dropping into
the single digits during peak heating this afternoon, will support
critical fire weather conditions. Critical and corresponding
Elevated Highlights were nudged southward into portions of Northwest
TX to account for current surface observation trends and near term
model guidance.

The forecast remains on track for an elevated fire weather threat
across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic with no
changes to current highlights. Please see previous discussion for
additional details.

..Williams.. 04/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern
Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough
intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen
across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated
cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another
shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level
winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the
Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move
southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad
area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY
and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are
expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire
weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end
overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the
surface low.

Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will
encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25
mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of
the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope
trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have
seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity
recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a
broad area of critical fuels.

...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough
will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty
downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry
fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear
likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into
southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds
amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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