56°F
Updated:
6/28/2022
06:19:14am

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 28 10:36:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 28 10:36:01 UTC 2022.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jun 28 10:36:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 28 10:36:01 UTC 2022.
SPC Jun 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region Thursday, posing at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Blocking may continue to become more prominent, with an increasingly amplified split flow developing across the eastern Pacific into western North America during this period. Downstream, a deep mid-level low emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to continue to slowly dig near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. As it does, mid-level heights may become suppressed to its south, across parts of the northern Great Plains through the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, there appears likely to be little change to the persistent mid/upper ridging across much of the central and southern tier of the United Sates. In lower-levels, a developing surface low, emerging from the southern Canadian Prairies on Wednesday, may progress across northern Ontario, before perhaps deepening more substantively and occluding across the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity by late Thursday night. A trailing cold front appears likely to advance south of the international border through much of the upper Great Lakes region and northern Great Plains. Along and east of pre-frontal surface troughing, and around the western periphery of low-level ridging centered over the southwestern Atlantic, a seasonably moderate to strong low-level jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) may persist through much of the period across parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Although a gradual moistening, aided by the northeastward advection of monsoonal moisture, may continue along much of this corridor, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content might remain confined to much of the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Texas. ...Central Great Plains into upper Great Lakes... Although the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields may begin to shift across and northeast of the Great Lakes region, 30-50 kt flow in the 850-500 mb layer may persist across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region through much of the day. Farther south, the stronger flow (on the order of 30 kt around 850 mb) will be confined to the lower levels, east of the pre-frontal surface troughing into the central/southern Great Plains. Given sufficient destabilization, this regime will at least conditionally support organized severe thunderstorm development. Despite some continued moistening of the pre-frontal boundary layer, guidance suggests that modification of mid-level lapse rates, associated with the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may only allow for the development of seasonably modest mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Within the stronger deep-layer mean flow, near and east-northeast of the upper Great Lakes, this may be slowed or inhibited by early day cloud cover. Still, this environment may support at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development by late Thursday afternoon and evening. This may include isolated supercells, and a couple of evolving clusters of storms, which could pose a risk for mostly severe wind and some hail. ..Kerr.. 06/28/2022Read more
SPC Jun 28, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 OutlookDay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that blocking with an amplified split flow will remain prominent across the eastern Pacific into western North America through next weekend and at least early next week. While a mid-level high remains centered over the Canadian Yukon and adjacent Northwest Territories vicinity, large-scale mid-level troughing is likely to maintained to its south, offshore through inland of much of the U.S. Pacific coast. Downstream, after an initially deep embedded mid-level low finally progresses offshore of the Newfoundland and Labrador coast and weakens by early next week, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to be maintained across much of eastern Canada and the Northeast. At the same time mid-level ridging will also be maintained from the southwestern Atlantic through the southern Great Plains. And mid-level ridging within the westerlies to its north is forecast to expand between the larger scale troughs, from the northern Rockies eastward along the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity into the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front accompanying the deep mid-level low as it migrates across and east of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity appears likely to progress south of the international border, into the Northeast by early Saturday. Ahead of the front, it does appear increasingly probable that at least a narrow corridor of more substantive low-level moistening, across the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, will contribute to destabilization near the southern fringe of stronger westerlies (including 30-40+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer). While it currently appears that CAPE might be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates, low-level lapse rates may become fairly steep. If CAPE were a little larger or low-level wind fields a little stronger, the risk for organized severe thunderstorm activity would seem a little more certain. As it is currently forecast, the environment probably will become at least marginally conducive to thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, and it is possible that this could impact the urban corridor, at least from the Greater Boston to New York City areas, perhaps into the Philadelphia and Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas. Late next weekend through early next week (including the July 4th holiday), it is possible that one or two perturbations could emerge from the Pacific coast mid-level troughing, and contribute to potential for the evolution of organizing convective clusters across the northern Intermountain region through northern Rockies. Eventually, this activity may work its way around the northern periphery of the mid-level ridging near the central Canadian/U.S. border area. However, the predictability of these features at this extended range remains low.Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build into the Plains states from the west as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northwest today. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a deep, dry boundary layer to the lee of the northern Sierra, promoting Elevated dry and windy conditions across the northern Great Basin during the afternoon. By afternoon peak heating, isolated to potentially scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners given ample monsoonal moisture present. While the storms will be slow moving and producing rainfall over areas that have received accumulations from preceding storms, guidance still indicates that fuel beds are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, with isolated dry thunderstorm highlights maintained. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains regions as upper ridging persists across the southern and central U.S. tomorrow/Wednesday. Strong flow behind the mid-level trough will overspread the northern Great Basin, where downslope flow along the lee of the Sierra will promote Elevated winds/RH during the afternoon. Farther east, the combination of surface lee troughing and the passage of a cold front will aid in the development of critically dry and breezy conditions across portions of the central Plains for several hours. Critical highlights have been introduced since fuels are expected to be quite receptive to fire spread following dry conditions. Meandering mid-level moisture across the eastern Great Basin will continue to support the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms by afternoon peak heating. While it is unclear how much of an impact preceding day's rainfall will have on fuel beds, at least spotty critically dry fuels would support ignitions from lightning, with isolated dry thunderstorm highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
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