SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 13:26:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 13:26:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Feb 14 13:26:02 UTC 2026

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 14 13:26:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Feb 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a gradually deepening
upper wave in place along the southern High Plains into northern
Mexico with a pronounced vorticity maximum approaching the upper Rio
Grande Valley. Latest upper-air analyses show increasing cold
advection across the southern High Plains, which will contribute to
the intensification and eastward progression of the wave through
tonight. At the surface, seasonally high dewpoints (low to mid-60s)
continue to spread north across central/eastern TX to the south of a
warm frontal zone analyzed from northwest OK to the lower MS Valley.
Continued low-level warm advection and increasing ascent aloft will
promote steady deepening/organization of the surface cyclone as it
shifts southeast towards southern AR/northern LA by tonight. A
frontogenetic Pacific cold front attendant to the cyclone will
promote thunderstorm development across central to eastern TX this
afternoon and into LA and southern MS overnight.

...Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi...
Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast
through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within
the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior
overnight convection. With time, this activity will become
increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000
J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered
daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height
falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete
cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The
potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should
increase as this occurs - especially between 00-04 UTC across far
east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper
wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid
eastward surge of the front. 

...Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas...
Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of
morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest
OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface
front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with
daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to
-6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind
the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective
showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this
afternoon.

..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026


Read more

SPC Feb 14, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period. 
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday.  This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization.  However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity.  It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow.  This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.


Read more