SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 27 05:02:02 UTC 2024

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 27 05:02:02 UTC 2024.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Apr 27 05:02:02 UTC 2024

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 27 05:02:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Apr 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible, large hail and wind
damage remain possible this evening across parts of the lower to mid
Missouri Valley. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a
couple of tornadoes will also be possible from the Ozarks southward
into the Ark-La-Tex. Hail will be possible late tonight in parts of
west and northwest Texas.

...Lower To Mid Missouri Valley...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough, evident on water vapor
imagery, is currently moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Just
ahead of the trough, a cluster of severe storms is located near the
nose of a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture
and instability. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the
low to mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP around 1500
J/kg. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot low to mid-level jet is located
across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. This feature is creating
strong deep-layer and very strong low-level shear. This shear is
being sampled by the Des Moines WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear
near 60 knots, a looping hodograph, and 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 650 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be
favorable for supercells and tornadoes over the next few hours as
the cluster moves east-northeastward across central and southern
Iowa. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be possible with
the stronger storms within this cluster. The severe threat should
become more isolated late this evening as the cluster moves into
weaker instability across northern and eastern Iowa.

Further to the south, a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing in
western Missouri. This cluster is located along the eastern edge of
a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE
in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The cluster is also located just to
the west of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The Springfield, Missouri
WSR-88D VWP is sampling the low-level jet, and has a looping
hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 700 m2/s2. This
will continue to support an isolated tornado threat with supercells
for a couple more hours this evening. A threat for large hail and
isolated wind damage will also exist with these storms.

As these storm clusters move eastward into the Mississippi River
Valley late this evening into the overnight period, the severe
threat is expected to become marginal. Hail and isolated wind damage
will the primary threats.

...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex...
The latest water-vapor imagery shows what appears to be a subtle
shortwave trough moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from northeast Texas into
western Arkansas. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is
ongoing along the eastern edge of the low-level jet, where surface
dewpoints range from 65 to 70 F, and the RAP has MLCAPE near 1500
J/kg. In addition, the Shreveport, LA WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 40
knots, with a gradually veering winds with height. This should be
enough to continue a severe threat for a few more hours this
evening. The stronger rotating cells and bowing line segments will
have a potential for large hail and wind damage.

...West/Northwest Texas...
An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest
tonight. Ahead of the system, strong moisture advection will take
place across the southern Plains. A dryline in west-central Texas
will retreat westward this evening, allowing for moderate
instability to develop across parts of west Texas. As a low-level
jet strengthens across west Texas late tonight, elevated strong
thunderstorms are expected to develop from the eastern edge of the
Caprock northeastward into the northwest Texas. These storms will
have a chance for isolated large hail.

..Broyles.. 04/27/2024


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