SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 6 07:36:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep  6 07:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Sep 6 07:36:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep  6 07:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Sep 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England.
Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the
Piedmont.

...Northeastern U.S...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with
latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves
across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following
this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across
the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr
height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb
flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New
England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today
will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region
and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift
is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models
suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in
destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front.
Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as
convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of
low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate
0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely
be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with
perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This
activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening
where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less
buoyancy.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025


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SPC Sep 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas
east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts
of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the
southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin
on the western flank of the surface high.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern
extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover
will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered
convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains
region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or
two could develop and produce localized gusty winds.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will
develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to
develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the
lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak
inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any
activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the
central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing
convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet.
With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce
small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025


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SPC Sep 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the
week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the
surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS
east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough,
some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee
troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough
is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and
move eastward.

...Parts of southern/central Plains...
With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface
high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee
trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have
the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level
moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong,
but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However,
large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show
somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even
during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to
severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper
ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges
on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide
enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally
dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this
afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and
localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. 

Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned
upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the
evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast
soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb,
suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur.
Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may
overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by
lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights
over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies.

..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West
Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow
(Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will
encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into
northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is
the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the
northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending
up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry
thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been
added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel
beds.

..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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