Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

468
FXUS63 KOAX 161718
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, with morning southerly
  winds shifting to northwesterly as a cold front pushes through
  midday. Winds gusts may reach 40-50 mph, wind a wind advisory
  in place for portions of the area.

- Very high fire danger will exist across northeast Nebraska on
  Wednesday as warm, dry and windy conditions prevail.

- Widespread precipitation chances return on Saturday, with a
  few strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show a mid-
to upper-level shortwave trough digging across the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest, placing the region under
northwesterly flow aloft. Surface high pressure has built in a
behind a departing cold front, bringing calm and pleasant
conditions today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Light
winds will gradually back to southerly this evening.

Winds will increase overnight as a deepening surface low and
associated frontal system moves across the area. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight
across northeast Nebraska into western Iowa along as associated warm
front, with PoPs around 15-30%. Instability and moisture remain
fairly limited, which should keep severe weather potential low.

Southerly winds will increase to around 35-40 mph ahead of the cold
front`s arrival overnight into Wednesday morning. Enhanced southerly
gusts of 40-50 mph are expected later in the morning generally south
of I-80 as the boundary layer decouples and mixes into a strong (50-
60 kt) LLJ. A Wind Advisory is in place for this area from 7 AM
through 11 AM. A brief dampening in winds is expected as the low
passes overhead before the cold front pushes southward across the
area during the late morning and afternoon hours, bringing a quick
shift to northwesterly winds with increasing gusts behind the
boundary. Northwesterly wind gusts of 40-50 mph will continue
through the afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected across
northeast Nebraska. An additional Wind Advisory remains in place for
northeast Nebraska and western Iowa from noon through 9 PM
Wednesday.

Warm, dry and windy conditions on Wednesday will bring very
high fire weather concerns, especially across northeast Nebraska
where fuels remain dry. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
values are expected to fall into the 20-25% range. A Red Flag
Warning was considered for northeast Nebraska, but was
ultimately leaned against after collaborating with fuel
partners in the area. High temperatures are expected to reach
the mid 80s to low 90s, the warmest day of the week for most
locations. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday evening into
the overnight hours.

Thursday and Beyond...

Strong northwesterly winds aloft will usher in a brief period of
CAA, dropping highs back into the mid 70s to low 80s on Thursday. A
few spotty showers will be possible Thursday morning along a stalled
surface convergent boundary. However, a fairly dry sub-cloud layer
should limit most precipitation from making it to the surface (PoPs
peaking at 15%). Surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging
will then support calm conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s
on Friday.

A more active weather pattens looks to develop in the extended
range. A shortwave disturbance and associated low are forecast to
move through the mid-MO valley on Saturday, bringing the next chance
for severe weather. SPC has placed much of eastern Nebraska in a 15%
severe weather probability, supported by GEFS and EPS based machine
learning guidance also displaying a 10-15% probability of severe
weather over much of the area. This will be a period to monitor as
details continue to come into better focus. Highs are expected to
reach the 80s, with PoPs peaking around 70-90% Saturday night
into early Sunday.

Sunday into early next week, highs generally persist in the upper
70s and 80s, along with periodic 20-30% PoPs. The upper-level
pattern looks to stay somewhat active into next week with weak
disturbances tracking by daily.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with winds being the primary concern. Calm northerly
winds will back to southerly through the day before increasing
to 15-25 kts later this evening. Low-level wind shear is
expected at all terminals overnight as a 55 kt low-level jet
moves in at FL015-020. Southerly winds gusts of 20-30 kts will
move into KOMA and KLNK tomorrow morning before a brief lull in
gusty winds. A cold front will then shift winds to
northwesterly towards the end of the forecast period, with gusts
of 20-35 kts increasing behind the front. Gusts further increase
to 40-45 kts at KOFK just beyond the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ068-
     089>093.
IA...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

562
FXUS63 KGID 161756
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased rain and thunderstorm chances this weekend,
  especially Saturday night. Severe storms may develop.

- Warming temperatures through Wednesday then a cold front will
  bring cooler temperatures (70s and 80s) for Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently developing along a boundary
in north central and central Kansas and moving southward. Most of
this activity is to the south of the forecast area but some isolated
showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are developing across parts of
north central Kansas. Any precipitation amounts are expected to be
less than a quarter of an inch. No severe weather is expected.
Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as winds
become southerly this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to
continue to warm up on Wednesday despite a cold front beginning to
move into the area. High temperatures for Wednesday may need to be
lowered a bit if the front arrives any earlier. The cooler
temperatures will be felt on Thursday as a surface high moves over
the area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase this weekend (up to 80%-85% chance Saturday night)
with a passing shortwave. Severe storms may develop, although there
is still some uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the
great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the
area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during
the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to
impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even
moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to
Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not
expected to be strong or severe.

As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the
pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week.
The next front will move through the area Wednesday.
Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in
the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models
currently show the front traversing the area during the day,
which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly
downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up
where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the
southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the
front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the
front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across
the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas,
especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near
critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the
fuels and the weather conditions.

After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a
bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week.

The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an
upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday
into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is
currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could
be strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and rain-free
conditions throughout the period, with only limited amounts of
passing mid-high level cloud cover. That leaves winds as by far
the main concern, including somewhat-strong surface winds
(including a cold frontal passage with directional change) and
also a fairly strong round of overnight-early morning low level
wind shear (LLWS).

- Surface winds:
By far the lightest winds of the period will be right away this
afternoon (becoming southerly up to around 10KT). This evening-
overnight, speeds will ramp up and turn more southwesterly with
time (sustained commonly 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT). Then, right
around 13Z a cold front arrives, turning winds northwesterly
through the rest of the period with gusts increasing to around
30KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Have maintained LLWS from previous TAFs, and even added a second
group to provide more detail on direction/intensity. The initial
LLWS group runs 03-09Z and highlights mainly southerly speeds
accelerating to around 50KT within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL. The
second LLWS group then runs 09-13Z as low level winds turn more
southwesterly and increase a bit more to around 55KT. The net
result is several hours of moderately-strong LLWS, with shear
magnitude between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer
reaching 30-40KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion