Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

288
FXUS63 KOAX 262258
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues for the southern two-thirds of the
  area Monday as slightly cooler air begins to work in from the
  north.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible, mostly between 6pm and
  11pm. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

- Warm temperatures continue through the week, although they`ll
  be closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

As of 1:30pm, the coolest heat index in the CWA is the 108
reading at Wayne, NE. Most temps are in the mid-90s with
dewpoints generally in the upper 70s. It is hot and it is humid.

Models are converging on a solution that brings an MCS through
the area this evening from about Yankton and fizzling out around
I-80. The RAP and the HRRR are still keeping things mostly dry.
Consider the severe threat tonight to be conditional, meaning
if storms are able to develop, they should be able to grow
volatile. Whether they develop or not is not certain (60%).
It`ll be hard to produce hail with temps as warm as they are,
but shear and instability magnitudes suggest organized
development is possible. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat with decreasing severity as the storms push southeast.
By the time they push through the Fremont/Omaha areas, they
should begin to weaken... if they are to develop at all.
Tornadoes can be all but ruled out. Expect dry conditions by 5am
as remaining action should be in Missouri by then.

.MONDAY...

500 hPa heights don`t change much for Monday and with sunny
skies forecast, there will be little to prevent temps from
matching today`s pinnacles over the southern half of the
forecast area. A cold front sliding south has other plans for
the northern collection of Nebraskan counties. The front should
have passed through Norfolk by noon. This will leave that area
and points north and west of there both a bit cooler and
noticeably less humid. Heat indices will peak near the century
mark up north while 115 is still possible in the Omaha metro
and points southeast of there.

.TUESDAY...

Rain and thunderstorm chances have slipped for Tuesday, now at
about 15% maximum on the western periphery of the CWA. A
shortwave and monsoonal moisture rounding the upper ridge may
produce some storms in western or central Nebraska, but latest
guidance keeps the action on the horizon for those closer to the
Missouri River.

High temps under mostly/partly cloudy skies should peak near
90F, near 1991-2020 normal highs.

.WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

Temps remain hot through the week with the upper ridge
continuing to spin anti-cyclonically over the Desert Southwest
through next weekend. Monsoonal moisture and shortwaves rounding
the ridge will bring occasional chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Confidence has grown in precip for Thursday
(60-70%) as 12Z global models bring a shortwave through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period.
Southerly winds gusts will continue at 12-14 kts with gusts up
to 20 kts, gradually calming under 12 kts into the overnight
period. LLWS is expected to work into KOMA and KLNK from
27/06-12Z as 40-45 kt southwesterly winds work in around FL015.
A front pushing southward across the area through Monday morning
and afternoon will shift winds to northeasterly.

A strong to severe thunderstorm can`t be ruled out across
northeast Nebraska this evening (27/00-04Z), with isolated wind
gusts up to 60 kts and patchy MVFR conditions possible. Storms
are expected to remain north of the terminals, with a 20% chance
of impacts at KOFK. Amendments will be made if needed.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ030-034-
     042>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ052-053.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ050-
     051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056.
     Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

856
FXUS63 KGID 261943
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
243 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the whole area this
  afternoon and evening. Heat index values of around 105 to 120
  degrees are expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms late this
  afternoon into this evening for areas mainly north of Highway
  6. These storms may produce wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

- An Extreme Heat Warning continues into Monday evening for
  north central Kansas. South central and central Nebraska are
  in a Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening until 10 PM Monday.

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms Monday evening and
  night for areas mainly west of the Tri-Cities area. These
  storms may produce wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Conditions are heating up outside with temperatures in the 90s and
triple digits and heat index values ranging from around 106 degrees
and around 120 degrees. Temperatures are expected to continue to
heat up this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around
105 degrees. A few isolated areas, mainly east of Highway 281, may
experience heat index values between 115 and 120 degrees. The whole
area is in an Extreme Heat Warning. Winds are expected to increase a
bit out of the south this afternoon but will decrease this evening.
An approaching boundary from the north this evening may result in
showers and thunderstorms (primarily along and north of Highway 6 in
Nebraska). The best chances (15% to 20%) will be north and west of
the Tri-Cities area between 6 PM and 10 PM. Some of these storms
have the potential to be strong to severe with wind gusts up to
around 60 MPH being the main hazard. The storms are expected to
weaken as they move southward. The Tri-Cities area may experience a
few showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm around 10 to 11 PM. Low
temperatures tonight will only cool to around the mid 70s across
south central Nebraska and the upper 70s to low 80s in north central
Kansas.

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on
Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact
on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture
behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the
northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the
low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an
influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and
cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north
central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to
106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above
110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across
this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect
until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above
mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so
those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska
counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of
reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly
high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties
may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday.
Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to
range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across
the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and
night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The
highest chances will be across western portions of the area
(mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may
become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around
60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move
eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the
upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area.
High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end
of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various
rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night
as upper disturbances move over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
chance of wind shear between 04z and 08z but confidence is not
high enough to include at this time. Winds are expected to
increase out of the south this afternoon with gusts possibly
reaching up to around 20 knots. Winds will weaken this evening
and become more southeast before becoming variable ahead of a
north to northeast wind shift around 13z to 15z. Winds are
expected to increase by 18z Monday out of the northeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion