Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

645
FXUS63 KOAX 201717
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring periods of very
  high to potentially extreme fire danger this afternoon through
  Thursday across northeast Nebraska.

- Our next weather system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.
  Showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the area.
  There is a low (15%) chance of severe storms for portions of
  area Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Today through Wednesday...

Temperatures dipped into the upper 30s and low 40s overnight, with a
few locations dipping closer to 30 across far northeast Nebraska
early this morning. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and
southwesterly winds became gusty, reaching speeds of 15 to 25 mph by
noon today. Drier air will continue to edge in from the west this
afternoon, dropping RH to 20 to 30 percent. The combination of warm
temperatures, breezy winds, and dry conditions will lead to areas of
Very High fire danger with a few pockets of Extreme fire danger,
mainly across northeast Nebraska.

An upper ridge will continue to edge eastward, into the Central
Plains, through the first half of the week, allowing temperatures to
continue to climb through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Nighttime lows
only fall to the mid 40s and 50s tonight/Tuesday morning, squashing
any fears of frost/freeze. Highs Tuesday are expected to reach the
low to mid 80s. A surface high will nudge into the region on
Tuesday, sufficiently weakening winds and limiting Fire Weather
concerns.

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next approaching low
will drive an increase in winds for Wednesday. Currently expecting
speeds of 15-25 with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph. Minimum relative
humidities will drop to 20 to 30 percent across northeast Nebraska.
Expect the combination of continued dry conditions, highs in the 80s
and breezy winds will yield another round of Very High to Extreme
fire danger.

Thursday and Beyond...

Guidance remains consistent in pushing a strong trough and surface
front through the Plains mid to late-week. Although exact details,
including timing, remain uncertain, this system will likely bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms within the warm and moist
airmass ahead of the front. Machine learning models currently hint
at a chance for a few strong to severe storms in or near the
forecast late Wednesday (to our west) and Thursday (to the east),
with SPC also highlighting a 15% risk across the southeastern half
of the forecast area.

Additionally, strong winds and dry air behind the front could
lead to another day of increased fire danger, especially across
portions of northeast Nebraska.

Expect another brief cool-down behind this system as we head into
the weekend. Temperatures will likely rebound once again, the
following week. Expect several chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period, as an active
pattern becomes established over the Central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. South winds
will remain breezy this afternoon, with speeds up to 12 to 20
kts and occasional gusts as high as 20 to 30 kt. LLWS will be
possible at all three TAF sites between 04Z to 12Z. Winds will
decrease to 12 kts or less shortly after 10Z, but become gusty
once again late in the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

398
FXUS63 KGID 202041
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions remain in the forecast through Tuesday night
  and into most of the day Wednesday. Late in the day Wednesday,
  a surface dryline will provide a focus for thunderstorm
  development...models have this dryline located west of the
  forecast area. Questions lie with whether any of this activity
  pushes far enough east to impact the local area.

- The main upper low/trough axis pushes east onto the Plains for
  Thursday, with an accompanying surface cold front working its
  way through. This frontal boundary will be the focus for
  another round of thunderstorms...with models currently in
  decent agreement with the better potential being along/just
  off to the east of our eastern fringes.

- Fire weather concerns continue through the end of the work
  week...with the day overall greatest concern being on
  Thursday. Winds are strongest on Wednesday but a limited area
  of low relative humidity (20 percent or lower), Thursday has
  the more widespread low relative humidity (but still gusty
  winds).

- Periodic disturbances/precipitation chances continue on Friday
  through the upcoming weekend. Not a ton of confidence in the
  finer details at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions and overall little in the way of cloud cover
reign across the area this afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air
and satellite data show west-northwesterly flow in place, with
broad ridging over much of the CONUS, set up between a trough
axis working its way toward the East Coast and a larger area of
low pressure spinning just off the West Coast. At the surface,
we are sitting between high pressure centered over the
Midwest/Great lakes and a trough axis draped through the High
Plains, keeping our winds southerly. Between the gusty
conditions and low relative humidity values this afternoon, made
no changes to the ongoing area-wide Red Flag Warning, which
runs through 9PM this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday...

Overall, no notable changes made to the shorter term forecast
period...which remains dry. Models are in good agreement showing
the main upper level ridge axis currently off to our west
shifting east onto the Plains during the day Tuesday into
Tuesday night...pushed by the larger scale upper level low
pressure system which will be working its way inland through the
northern half of the West Coast. Not looking at any notable
disturbances passing through the area, with skies remaining
mostly clear-partly cloudy. A disturbance sliding east to the
north of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning will
push a weak surface frontal boundary south. Doesn`t look to make
it all the way through the area, stalling out roughly halfway
around midday...bringing more easterly winds to northern
portions of the area, and southerly across the south. As surface
troughing gets more organized over the High Plains through the
afternoon hours, that boundary lifts back north/gets washed out,
with winds area-wide becoming south-southeasterly. Speeds
remain on the lighter side for most...topping out around 15
MPH...the far SE corner of the area may be a bit more breezy,
with better potential for gusts over 20 MPH. Though warm once
again with highs in the 80s, the more southerly flow brings
increasing dewpoints north...diminishing fire weather potential
some. See Fire Weather section below for more.

Mid-week on through next weekend...

On Wednesday, models remain in pretty good agreement showing the
main upper level low pressure system continuing to trek east,
centered roughly over the ID/MT/WY border region by early
evening. Ahead of this system, expecting a tightening pressure
gradient to develop across the forecast area thanks to
strengthening low pressure/troughing over the High
Plains...resulting in stronger southerly winds. Sustained speeds
of 20-30 MPH and gusts near 35-40 MPH will be possible through
the day on Wednesday. High temperatures once again climb into
the 80s...and the continued southerly flow pushes those 40s-50s
dewpoints further north...keeping relative humidity values from
falling off too much. Potential for some spots of near-critical
fire weather conditions are there...mainly in NNW areas. See
Fire Weather section below for more.

During the afternoon hours on Wednesday, models showing the
development of a sharper sfc dryline, which looks to extend
through western portions of NE-KS. Increasing lift out ahead
of the main upper level system looks to swing SW-NE onto the Nrn
Plains and portions of the Central Plains...sparking off
thunderstorms along that sfc dryline off to our west. Confidence
in the coverage of these storms isn`t the highest at this
point. Our late day-evening precipitation chances remain on the
low side around 20 percent...some uncertainty with how far south
things develop, getting further away from the better forcing
aloft, and models show warmer mid-level temperatures as well.
Some models keep our forecast area completely dry, others clip
our far W-NW areas. IF storms can form closer to or move into
our west, not out of the question some could be strong-
marginally severe. Have some finer forecast details to iron out.

Wednesday night on into the day on Thursday, forecast
precipitation chances are tied to the main upper low/trough
axis itself...and while those chances aren`t high, they are
potentially too broad. Have 20-30 percent chances continuing Wed
night-early Thu AM across much of the forecast area...could see
those getting trimmed quite a bit if recent model trends hold.
For the afternoon-evening hours Thursday, thunderstorm chances
will be closely tied to the accompanying surface cold
front...which most models currently show either right on our
eastern edge or just outside our forecast area before things
fire. Again...finer details to be ironed out. Thursday brings
better potential for increased fire weather concerns...as that
surface boundary ushers in drier dewpoints...and winds look to
remain on the gusty side.

For the end of the week and this weekend...periodic
precipitation chances remain in the forecast. Models showing
upper level low pressure moving into central Canada for at least
Fri-Sat, with the potential for shortwave disturbances to pass
through the region. Confidence in the specifics isn`t overly
high...so chances remain in the 20-40 percent range. Sunday`s
precipitation chances are tied more to another disturbance
moving inland through srn CA...and models are currently more
optimistic with precip potential with this round. We`ll see how
things trend...it`s only Monday. As far as temperatures
go...following 70s-near 80 on Thursday, highs fall into the
60s-near 70 for Friday, then more 50s for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain
above 12kt feet. Gusty SSW winds will remain possible this
afternoon-early evening...gusts near 25-30 MPH are not out of
the question. The overnight hours will keep the chances for
gusts near 20-25 MPH around, with no notable change in wind
direction expected. Models continue to show the potential for
LLWS at both sites, with those winds aloft looking to turn more
westerly after midnight. After sunrise Tuesday, a surface
frontal boundary sinking south into the terminal areas will
bring the potential for more variable, but lighter
winds...confidence in direction from 12-18Z is not high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Tuesday...expecting another warm day with highs climbing into
the 80s. While better moisture/higher dewpoints are inching
their way back north, afternoon minimum relative humidity
values are forecast to range from the low-mid teens in W-NW
areas to the low-mid 30s in the SE. A weak surface boundary is
expected to sink south into the area tonight-Tues AM...stalling
out about halfway through the area late morning-midday. Through
the afternoon this front lifts back north/washes out, with winds
turning SSErly area-wide. The location/timing of the boundary
helps keep wind speeds down for much of the area...SE portions
of the area look to be on the breezy side. Current forecast has
the winds topping out around 10-15 MPH in the areas where
relative humidity values look to be the lowest...in the south
where potential is better for gusty winds, is where relative
humidity values may only drop to around 30 percent. Given this
offset of winds/RH...no formal fire headlines were needed.

Wednesday brings gusty conditions area-wide...with southerly
speeds of 20-30 MPH and gusts of 35-40 MPH possible. High
temps again climb into the 80s...but models show that continued
southerly flow has more of those 40s-50s dewpoints spread
across the area...keeping relative humidity values up. Main
potential for near-critical to perhaps briefly critical
conditions looks to be focused roughly along and west of a
Ord-Beaver City NE line.

Thursday...again gusty winds are expected, this time in
differing directions as a surface trough axis/cold front work
east across the region. While the widespread speeds similar to
Wed are not expected for Thursday...winds will be turning to the
WNW as the boundary passes. This will usher in drier dewpoints
and the potential for much lower relative humidity
values...current forecast has widespread values below 20 percent
across the area (low teens in the west). This day has the next
best chance for more widespread critical fire weather
conditions...main area of uncertainty is our ESE edges, due to
the timing of those lower dewpoints (may be much later in the
afternoon).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion