Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

137
FXUS63 KOAX 191143
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow develops Thursday morning and continues into Thursday
  night. Travel impacts are likely (>80%), with much of the area
  covered by a Winter Weather Advisory.

- Highest accumulations of up to 5-6+" are forecast along a line
  from Columbus to Blair, with a narrow Winter Storm Warning
  covering these areas into Iowa.

- Strong winds gusting to 30-35 mph during snowfall will combine
  with high snow rates to make for whiteout conditions.

- Dry weather settles in Friday onward, with warmer temperatures
  moving in Sunday to Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Tonight and Thursday:

A broad and messy pattern is evident in water vapor imagery this
evening, with a dynamic and broad trough over most of the CONUS. The
feature thatwe`re most interested in is powering a leaf of ascent
across the High Plains into MT/WY and western Nebraska, with a
surface low already taking shape over northeast Colorado. This
system will be the sole focus of the short-term forecast, and it
will bring a narrow stripe of highly impactful snow over the course
of the day tomorrow.

As the system takes shape, the surface low will maintain impressive
depth, saunter across northern Kansas before deepening as it pivots
and ejects from northwestern Missouri towards Wisconsin. While it
passes by, strong height falls, warm air advection, elevated
instability, and frontogenesis will wrap along it`s northern
periphery and drive a narrow but potent line of snow that will span
2-3 counties tall for the heaviest portions. Since we`ve been very
dry over the last couple of days, the keys to the snow band will lie
with where the most abundant lift tracks, and its residence time
over those areas. As of now, the strongest will track generally from
west-to-east, helping saturate the dry lower levels over time. As of
now, the latest data shows this overlap of residence time and strong
forcing extending from Albion to Blair, then to Underwood Iowa.

Getting into timing, uncertainty, amounts and other complications,
the elephant in the room that needs to be addressed is to nailing
down the location. With such a narrow band of higher forecasted
amounts, you won`t have to travel very far north or south before
running out of snow quickly. Shifts in the location of the band so
far have been driven by the speed of the main system and when it
decides to eject to the northeast. Any shifts in the the model data
will mean stark changes for the forecasted snow for any one
location. The model data has shown that there is major boom-or-bust
potential, meaning that if this system seizes its full potential,
areas in the heart of the strip of snow could see 6-8" or even
higher. Lower ends of the spectrum have the heart seeing 3-5", with
some breaks in between the highest amounts. Looking at timing for
the arrival of snow, things have shifted later, with northeast
Nebraska seeing mid-to-late morning start times, while areas of
eastern Nebraska including the Omaha/CB and Lincoln Metros see a
start closer to 2-4 PM. With things settling in before noon to just
head of the evening commute, those impacts will be felt at a
larger scale. Combine that with wind gusts of 30-35 mph, we`ve
expanded the Winter Weather Advisory and threaded in a narrow
Winter Storm Warning for the most-impacted areas. by 9 PM,
things begin quickly tapering off with most of any snow exiting
to the east by midnight.

Friday and Beyond:

Behind our narrow but potentially mighty snow-maker, cold air is
expected to funnel in for Friday morning when apparent
temperatures fall to around 0 degrees. High temperatures Friday
into the weekend will be highly modulated by the amount of snow
on the ground, with areas covered in any white stuff likely
staying in the lower twenties at best, while the February sun
warms north and south of it to near normal temperatures.

Sunday onward, we`ll continue dry weather as the eastern edge of a
ridge pushes into the forecast area and lets us in on some of the
warmer air initially locked to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Snow will be moving into northeast Nebraska later this morning,
reaching KOFK around 16Z. Snow showers appear likely to develop
right over KLNK and KOMA closer to 19-22Z this afternoon.
Expect cigs to fall to around 1500ft at KOMA and 2000-2500ft at
KLNK with the development of these showers. Visibility will drop
to 2SM or less, occasionally dropping down to 1/2SM. Winds will
be gusting out of the north to 30kt through the afternoon,
contributing to the reduction in visibility. We`ll see snowfall
rates start to decrease after 00Z, with improving cigs and
visibility, but light snow and blowing snow will still continue
to impact the terminals until at least 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for
     NEZ015-033-034-065>067.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for
     NEZ043>045-050>053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     NEZ016>018-031-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ030-042.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for
     IAZ043-056-079-080.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for
     IAZ055-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

834
FXUS63 KGID 191150
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow and strong northerly winds remain on track
  to impact areas mostly along and N of I-80 today through this
  evening.

- A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for Valley, Greeley and
  Nance Counties where 4-6" of snow is most likely. Winter
  Weather Advisory is in effect south of the warning down to the
  I-80 corridor where 1-3" of snow is forecast.

- Another quick shot of light snow possible Friday night into
  early Saturday morning, mainly for areas along and S of I-80.
  Snow amounts should remain light (dusting-1") as will winds.

- Mainly dry and gradually warmer late weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

As mentioned in the Key Messages...made some adjustments to the
winter weather headlines late last evening to account for some
model trends. Still some very fine-scale uncertainties and the
overall system will be compact and limited in areal coverage -
which makes small changes in track more noticeable. However, the
overall message of this system remains largely unchanged from 24
hours ago:
- snow increases this morning, peaks afternoon-evening, decreases
  overnight
- Main area of accumulation along/N of I-80, heaviest along/N of
  Hwy 92 where 4-6" is most likely and locally heavier amounts
  possible.
- All areas experience gusty N winds around 30-40 MPH that will
  lead to blowing/drifting snow and travel impacts.

In terms of the finer scale details...would not at all be
surprised if we see some thundersnow, or at least some
convective elements, under/within the main W-E band that sets
up in our north later today. Forecast soundings indicate
several factors in support of some, albeit brief and localized,
heavy snow rates of ~1"/hr: deep lift co-located with a
relatively deep dendritic growth zone, steep lapse rates in the
mid-upper levels, and non-zero convective instability and/or
CSI. Also some hints of a decent iso-thermal layer beneath the
DGZ down to the sfc in our far NE zones. The moderate to heavy
snow rates - combined with strong northerly gusts 30-40 MPH,
could create some nasty travel conditions (esp. by this season`s
winter standards), esp. from around Ord to Fullerton. Certainly
would expect some significant travel impacts in these areas
around the time school/work lets out and into the evening hours.
Further south, probably going to be more "off and on"/showery
nature to start, then a more broad/steady shield of mainly light
snow late afternoon into the evening. Still expect amounts to
quickly taper off S of I-80. Snow should wrap up around 10pm to
midnight tonight. Still need to keep a close eye on how the
system evolves next several hours as SOME model guidance places
the heavier snow a little further S closer to I-80...but prefer
to stick with the more consistent European suite of guidance
(deterministic and ensemble) since it`s been quite consistent.

Next item to note will be chance for a second round of snow
Friday night into early Saturday AM. This continues to look like
a very minor event in terms of amounts and overall impacts - as
most areas should see around a dusting to 1" and only light
winds. Areas along and especially south remain most favored for
this round.

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet at this time with
temperatures gradually warming from late weekend through early
next week - perhaps even widespread 60s again for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Rest of Today...
RH values will remain very low this afternoon and early evening
until we start cooling off around sunset. At 2 PM this afternoon
the RH values at most locations were between 15 and 20 percent,
which may allow any sparks to easily turn into fires. Thankfully
the wind is much lighter today and only 10-20 mph. Consequently,
we do not need any Red Flag Warnings today.

Tonight...
A strong cold front will begin sinking south across
the forecast area this evening, mainly after 6 PM. This will
turn the winds from southerly to northeasterly. We will have
cold air advection all night long and especially during the day
on Thursday. The northeasterly winds will increase and shift to
northerly Thursday morning and then eventually northwesterly by
Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected around mid-
day on Thursday at 20-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Again most of the snow >1-2" is expected north of I-80 and
especially along and north of Hwy 92 (2-5"). Things could still
shift a bit, but right now areas south of I-80 across southern
Nebraska look like only a trace to around 1". Little to no snow
is currently expected across north central Kansas.

Our official forecast indicating 5" amounts across our north
leans closer to the highest 10% amounts (7-8"). The lower end,
lowest 10% ensemble amounts in the Ord area are only around 1".
Experience tells me that these high end amounts are overdoing it
for most locations and that the more accurate forecast for our
northern higher end amounts will be (3-5"). Therefore, went with
a Winter Weather Advisory rather than a Winter Storm Warning.
Although 3-5" of snow north of Hwy 92 along with strong winds
will make for some pretty difficult travel by Thursday
afternoon.

Timing...
Most areas will have little to no snow at daybreak. Then we will
see snow beginning in most northern locations during the morning
hours, peaking in the afternoon and then diminishing during the
evening hours.

Uncertainty...
There could be a narrow band of 5-7" embedded within the more
general 3-5 band. If this happens we many need to upgrade a few
counties to a Winter Storm Warning, most likely location for
this would be our northern most counties around the towns of
Ord and Greeley.

Friday...
A second shortwave trough will swing across the central plains
bringing another chance for snow, but this one appears lighter,
generally flurries up to 1", mainly focused on Friday evening
and overnight. Cold weather persists, mainly in the 30s, but
there are also models that keep us cooler, highs below freezing
in the 20s.

Saturday and Sunday...
Cool and dry northwesterly flow will keep highs only in the 30s
northeast to the 40s southwest. However, this forecast is at the
upper end of the ensemble forecast with more potential that we
could end up colder, for example, highs may only be in the 20s
if the colder models are correct.

Next Week...
Monday could still be cool, but a transition day with more
uncertainty. Confidence increases in nice weather returning by
Tuesday and Wednesday as most models bring highs back up into
the 50s and perhaps even 60s. We will most likely dry out again
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clouds are quickly on the increase and expect some MVFR CIGs to
build into the area by mid to late AM. This should coincide with
expanding area of light snow and VSBYs dropping down to 3-6SM.
Still expect the overall worst conditions - including IFR VSBYs
and at least MVFR CIGs - to be during the afternoon into early
evening hours. Will likely see this period as the most steady
for light to moderate snow, and some blowing snow, as well. Snow
should quickly taper off 02Z to 05Z with dry conditions expected
for the remainder of the period. Confidence on CIGs/VSBYs as a
result of snowfall: Medium.

Winds have already increased substantially over the past few
hours and will likely remain strong through the entire daytime
period. Sustained NE to N winds 20-25kt and gusts around 35kt
are likely. It`s not until after sunset that winds will
appreciably decrease, back to around 8-13kt out of the NW.
Confidence on wind: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ039>041.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     NEZ046>049-060>064.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion