Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

955
FXUS63 KOAX 212331
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger continues Saturday afternoon
  into Sunday.

- A cold front Sunday morning brings northerly wind gusts of 35
  to 45 mph. Winds will decrease during the afternoon and
  evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue early next week with
  another warming trend through at least mid-week. Dry
  conditions are anticipated with precipitation chances unlikely
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Saturday and Sunday

Record warmth remains on track for this afternoon. This record-
warmth is supported by a massive area of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest. Temperatures in the low 90s are likely to break a
slew of records from 1907 across the area. On top of the hot
conditions, it is going to be exceptionally dry with relative
humidity falling into the teens and single digits by mid-afternoon.
As a result, a Red Flag Warning continues across the region through
this afternoon into Sunday morning. Thankfully, this level of heat
is short-lived with a cold front anticipated during the morning
hours on Sunday. The cold front will be strong with northerly wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph immediately following frontal passage. Wind
speeds gradually decrease through the afternoon and evening on
Sunday. Sunday`s high temperatures are forecast to be 30 to nearly
40 degrees cooler than today, Despite this substantial change,
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s remain above normal.

Next Week

Temperatures begin to warm once again heading into next week as high
pressure builds back into the area. Temperatures climb a degree or
two on Monday. Temperatures climb into the 60s to near 70 on Tuesday
before climbing further into the 70s to near 80 by Wednesday.
Alongside this heat, dry conditions are forecast once again. This
may result in additional very high fire danger across the area. A
cold front begins to decrease temperatures on Thursday before
temperatures fall further on Friday. The cooler temperatures may
last into next weekend behind this second cold front. Overall, the
forecast remains mostly dry. While there may be a low chance of a
shower or two with the passing fronts, it is unlikely that anyone
will see anything meaningful. The next best chance of precipitation
is not anticipated until late next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals this evening and
will persist for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds remain
gusty at 20 to 25 kts at KOFK and KLNK, but these should subside
within the next hour or two. The low level jet will overspread
southern portions of the area by 02z, resulting in LLWS at KOMA
and KLNK. A strong front moves in from north to south after 07z
resulting in northerly wind speeds of 12 to 20 kts and gusts of
25 to 35 kts affecting terminals. The gusty winds persist for
much of the TAF period before slowly subsiding in the late
afternoon.

Model guidance does suggest at least a low 10-20% chance for a
brief dip to MVFR ceilings at KOFK from 15-17z. Have left out
of TAF for this issuance given low confidence in occurrence.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

865
FXUS63 KGID 212150
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- INCREDIBLE/HISTORIC "HEAT BLAST" today across our forecast
  area (CWA), with most places on track to realize high temps
  between 95-99 degrees. For many places (including Grand
  Island/Hastings), TEMPERATURES THIS HOT HAVE NEVER BEEN
  RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH...AND ALSO AT LEAST MATCH
  THE HOTTEST READINGS ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL! (see
  separate Climate section below for more details).

- Unfortunately, critical/dangerous fire weather conditions are
  going hand in hand with today`s heat, which in combination
  with concerns about an abrupt switch to strong northerly winds
  late tonight behind a cold front, will keep a Red Flag Warning
  going across our entire CWA through 4 AM Sunday morning.

- While none of the next 7 days appear to carry AS concerning of
  a fire weather "setup" as today, most days (including right
  away Sunday) will feature at least elevated-to-near critical
  fire weather concerns, and we`ll have to monitor closely for
  at least localized critical conditions on some days (see
  separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- While some spotty light rain cannot be ruled out Monday and
  then again later in the week, truly
  measurable/beneficial/widespread precipitation appears it will
  continue to evade us through the next 7 days, as we sink ever-
  deeper into a gradually worsening drought situation.

- Temperature-wise, fortunately nothing through the next week
  looks nearly as hot as today. However, things will lean on the
  seasonably-mild side of things for sure, with daily highs
  ranging from the 50s-80s (overall-warmest Wednesday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- From a personal standpoint, this 19-year "veteran" of NWS
  Hastings continues to be in awe of today`s
  historic/unseasonable very-early-spring heat! As already
  mentioned above (and more detail in the separate climate
  section below), it`s one thing to shatter heat records for the
  CURRENT MONTH in the spring, but to also at least match heat
  records for the FOLLOWING MONTH is a true rarity.

- As for 7-day forecast changes versus our previous (early-AM)
  forecast issuance, honestly nothing notable to speak of. Day-
  to-day high/low temps were only nudged upward or downward a
  few degrees at most, and unfortunately the vast majority of
  the next week appears dry (only limited/spotty/light precip
  chances both Monday and again late in the week). Peeking
  slightly beyond the 7-day, there is at least limited hope that
  at least a slightly more active precipitation pattern could
  "kick in" around-and-beyond March 30th, also accompanied by
  some increase in low-level moisture and resultant increases in
  relative humidity/some decrease of the fire weather threat. We
  can only hope.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 28)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Although today`s record/historic heat is fascinating to witness
from a purely meteorological perspective (high temps likely to
end up 95-99 most areas), the combo of the heat and unusually
low relative humidity (single digits nearly all areas), along
with breezy (fortunately not OVERLY- windy) west- southwest
winds, has unfortunately manifested in a dangerous fire weather
setup. More fire weather details will from this point forward be
discussed in the separate Fire Weather section below, but as of
this writing our satellite data has detected a few smaller fire
hotspots in Osborne/Hamilton counties, with both
satellite/radar confirming a noticeable flare-up within the
expansive Cottonwood Fire area along the Dawson/Lincoln County
line.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term
model data confirm our region`s considerable influence from an
incredibly strong ridge of high pressure (around 589 decameter
height at 500 millibars) spinning clockwise and centered over
the AZ/NM/MX border area. Under only a very limited amount of
passing thin/high cirrus clouds, our Central Plains region
resides under west-northwesterly flow along the northeastern
periphery of this ridge.

At the surface, impressive/deep diurnal mixing up to around 600
millibars has allowed winds to (if anything) turn a little more
westerly (versus southerly) than expected, with sustained speeds
commonly 15-20+ MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH this afternoon,
only contributing to the big warm-up and fire weather concerns.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Fortunately, the aforementioned very deep mixing will really
decrease by around/especially after 7 PM, allowing winds to
decrease and turn more southerly (versus westerly) this evening.
However, after sunset there will be a modest/secondary increase
in south-southwesterly winds, as mixing into a strong low-level
jet brings back some gusts of 20+ MPH.

However, the "big story" of the overnight hours arrives later
(between midnight and sunrise Sunday), as a strong cold front
steadily blasts southward through our CWA from north-to-
south...entering our far northern counties 1-3 AM, and
eventually clearing our far southern (KS) counties 5-7 AM. In
its wake, all areas will experience at least a 2-3 hour "blast"
of fairly strong northerly winds, commonly sustained 25-35 MPH
and gusting at least 40-50 MPH. At least limited coverage of
brief, marginally-severe gusts of 55-60 MPH is certainly
possible, but confidence in meeting/exceeding official severe
criteria of 58+MPH is currently too low to justify a formal High
Wind Warning (this bears close watching though). This will be a
dry frontal passage, and also bring steadily-cooler temps.
Overnight low temps (likely not reached until 8-9 AM) are aimed
low 40s northwest...to upper 40s-low 50s southeast.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Despite highs being 30-35 degrees COOLER THAN TODAY, they will
still be above-normal for late March! If anything, these highs
were nudged down very slightly, now aimed upper 50s-low 60s in
Nebraska...to mainly mid-60s in Kansas. Wind-wise, the day will
start out rather windy (especially in the morning), but then see
a slow/gradual decreasing trend during the afternoon. For the
day as a whole though, sustained northerly speeds at least 20-30
MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH will be common (up to around 40 MPH in the
morning).

Sunday evening-overnight, winds become light as they eventually
trend more east-southeasterly in the presence of surface high
pressure. Although clouds will be on the increase and some
spotty light rain could start to enter our far southwestern CWA
close to sunrise, this will almost surely be the overall-
chilliest night of the next week, with lows bottoming out 30-35
most areas.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
Although most places will be lucky to pick up anything more than
a hundredth or two, chances for at least spotty light rain
showers have increased versus 24 hours ago as a weak/moisture
starved shortwave zips through the Central Plains (for now
measurable chances/PoPs are only 20-30% at most). Otherwise, the
main story during the day will be gradually-increasing south-
southeasterly breezes...overall strongest in our western half
(west of Hwy 281), where sustained speeds 15-20 MPH/gusts 25-30
MPH will be most common. High temps upper 50s-low 60s most
areas. Any spotty rain should depart by evening, with slightly-
milder lows in the mid-upper 30s likely Monday night.


- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
The forecast turns dry again as upper ridging over the
southwestern U.S. again becomes an increasing influence, with
high temps steadily trending upward...currently aimed mainly 70s
Tuesday...then low-mid 80s most areas Wednesday (upper 80s far
south-southwest). Overnight lows follow suit...holding up well
into the 40s to perhaps low 50s.


- THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
As usual, uncertainty grows in the "finer details" at this time
range, but the main takeaways include a cool-down as the upper
pattern "flattens" a bit and our next large-scale surface cold
front passes southward through the Central Plains (the latest
ECMWF/GFS both bring this front through on Thursday). For now,
we have highs easing back in the 70s Thursday, then mainly 50s
for Friday-Saturday. Our official forecast includes some
spotty/low chances for precipitation as early as late Thurs
night-Fri AM, the vast majority of which should fall as rain (if
any occurs).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and
precipitation-free weather (only varying degrees of high clouds)
through the vast majority of the period, with only the slightest
chance (~ 10%) of a brief/fleeting MVFR ceiling closer to
sunrise Sunday. Certainly the main issue during the period, will
be winds, including a well-defined cold frontal passage with
somewhat-breezy south-southwest winds ahead of it and stronger
north winds behind it...along with a period of moderately-strong
low level wind shear (LLWS) prior to this front`s arrival.

- Wind details:
- Surface winds:
This afternoon, slightly-breezy southwest winds will
prevail...generally sustained 10-15KT/gusts around 20KT. Early
this evening (mainly 00-04Z), speeds will back off a bit (at
least lose gustiness. However, another slight uptick out of the
south-southwest will commence during the 04-08Z time frame ahead
of the front (gusts again up to around 20KT). Finally, right
around 08Z (fairly high confidence in this timing for being 12+
hours out), a strong cold front will barrel in from the north,
with moderately-strong north winds then remaining in place
through the rest of the period. Prevailing sustained speeds will
generally average around 25KT/gusts 35-40KT, but the initial
"frontal surge" could easily feature brief gusts of 45+KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Made little change to previously-introduced LLWS groups,
maintaining 04-08Z timing. During this time, southwesterly winds
within the lowest roughly 1K ft. AGL will accelerate to 40-45KT
(a touch stronger at KGRI than KEAR)..resulting in around 30KT
of shear magnitude between the surface and this level.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Unfortunately, other than some very small/fleeting chances for a
few rain showers here or there (mainly centered around Monday
and then again later in the week), the vast majority of these
next 7 days appear dry. Following is a day-by-day breakdown of
fire weather concerns within our forecast area (CWA):

- REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT:
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for our entire forecast
area (CWA) through 4 AM Sunday morning. For this afternoon-
evening, this warning is driven by a combination of record-
breaking heat (unprecedented in some places during March!),
resultant unusually-low relative humidity, and breezy southwest
winds gusting as high as 25-30 MPH. This afternoon, relative
humidity (RH) is bottoming out at least as low as 5-10%. This
evening (especially post-sunset), RH will slowly begin to rise,
but is unlikely to get above 20-25% until around midnight.

Later tonight into early Sunday morning, the main concern (and
the main reason the Red Flag Warning runs unusually-late into
the night) will be an abrupt shift to moderately-strong
north winds behind a southward-charging cold front. This front
will arrive into our far northern counties between 12-2 AM, and
eventually cross our southern/Kansas counties mainly 5-7 AM.
Behind the front, at least a few hours of wind gusts to at least
40-50 MPH are likely (brief gusts 55+ MPH possible), which could
obviously cause significant issues with any potential ongoing
fires. Fortunately, RH will steadily rise/recover in the cooler
temperatures behind the front...quickly increasing to 40-60% in
its wake.

- SUNDAY:
Despite afternoon high temperatures being at least 30-35 degrees
COOLER than Saturday, they will still be above-average for late-
March...most areas topping out between the upper 50s-mid 60s.
Winds will also remain moderately-strong especially through the
first half of the day, but fortunately will SLOWLY decrease
through the afternoon as RH gradually falls. The net result is a
solidly elevated-to-near-critical fire weather situation,
featuring northerly wind gusts commonly 25-35 during the
afternoon, but with RH currently forecast to drop no lower than
25-30 percent (slightly above official critical criteria).

At this time, we have decided against a formal Warning given the
combination of: 1) RH falling slightly short of criteria...2)
winds slowly decreasing with time. That being said, should later
forecasts raise wind speeds and/or lower RH, arguments could
certainly be made for a marginal Warning issuance...especially
in our southern/Kansas counties.

- MONDAY:
At this time, this looks like another elevated-to-near critical
fire weather afternoon for most of our CWA. Temperatures will be
similar to Sunday, but this time the breezy winds will be out of
the south-southeast...overall-strongest in the western half of
our CWA where gusts of 25-30 MPH are most likely. At this time,
minimum afternoon RH is forecast to bottom out 22-30% in most
places (slightly above critical criteria), but it could be a
"close call" especially in our western-most Nebraska counties
(Dawson/Gosper/Furnas), so this bears close watching.

- TUESDAY:
This is also a day that bears watching, as although our current
forecast does not call for critical conditions, this has "the
looks" of a day that could trend worse as it gets closer in
time, thanks to breezy southerly winds that will likely gust 20+
MPH. At least for now, minimum RH is forecast to drop no lower
than 25-30% in most places.

- WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
As is typical this far out in time, confidence is lacking in the
"finer details" regarding fire weather parameters. Wednesday
bears watching for the warmest temperatures (highs in the 80s)
and lowest RH of the week (10-20% most places), but at least for
now winds appear relatively tame. Thursday-Friday then appear to
turn windier out of the northeast behind a cold front, but there
are questions regarding how low RH might get in a cooler
airmass.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
  overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
  of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE CALENDAR
 YEAR OCCURRING TODAY! **

As expected, an incredible/historic blast of early-season heat
has taken aim on our area today. While various parts of our
forecast area (CWA) HAVE exceeded 90 degrees during March at
some point during our roughly 110-130 years of local weather
records, two sites that never have (until today) include our two
primary Tri Cities weather stations...Grand Island and Hastings
airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we
issue official Record Event Reports/RERs). Not only have these
stations now exceeded 90 degrees during the month of March for
the first time, but they have also REACHED-OR-EXCEEDED
TEMPERATURES NEVER BEFORE RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL!
See below for more details.


-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896)
- PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD            | LATEST OBSERVED VALUE

March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988         | 98 (not yet "final")

- PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF APRIL:
98 degrees...April 20, 1902

- PREVIOUS EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902
99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013
100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013



-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907)
- PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD            | LATEST OBSERVED VALUE

March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910         | 97 (not yet "final")

- PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF APRIL:
96 degrees...April 23, 1989

- PREVIOUS EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989
97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916
99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for NeWS>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT
Sunday for Ksz005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion