41°F
Updated:
3/10/2010
3:19:34pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
000
FXUS63 KOAX 100925
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A MESS. WET AND DREARY WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINATION OF RAIN/SNOW LINE AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED TO BE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WITH
INCREASING POPS TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL LET CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4
AM FOR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
00Z MODELS INDICATE SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY TO CUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE UPPER LOW LINGERS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS
PROFILE AT THIS TIME BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPOTTY
PRECIP COULD STILL OCCUR AT KLNK/KOMA THRU ABOUT 12-13Z...AND AT
KOFK THROUGH 14-15Z. SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT KOFK COULD ALSO SEE
A RA/SN MIX AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY AFFECT THE KLNK/KOMA
TAFS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 10/06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-
012-016-017-031.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
000 FXUS63 KGID 101754 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1154 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010 .AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KGRI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A DEFORMATION RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER NE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREA...DROPPING SOME LIGHT RAIN. VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND/OR FOG/MIST. THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE KGRI AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AS WELL...AND WILL CARRY IMPROVED VSBYS IN THE TAF. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY FOG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THEN NORTH ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRATUS TO KEEP CIGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN THE 400-1500 FT RANGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/ DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OTHER AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHEAST BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE LOWS TRY TO DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE LOW FURTHER NORTH WEAKENS AND THE SOUTHERN LOW IS PULLED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN LOW. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THESE LOWS. EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NORTH BETWEEN THESE LOWS. WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE MOSTLY BETWEEN PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SINCE THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OUT THERE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE COLDER AIR WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN...BUT PART OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COOL ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE COLD AIR THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND EXPECT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE LATER WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND AS THAT HAPPENS THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DURING THE EVENING RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH A MIX THROUGH THE CENTRAL. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AGAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND TO THE EAST THEN STARTS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST WHILE THE WEST WILL HAVE LESSER CHANCE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A LITTLE CHALLENGING AS WELL. COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE AREA AND DURING THE NIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BUT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW COULD GIVE WAY TO RAIN. MADE NO CHANGES TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
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