Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

000
FXUS63 KOAX 100925
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WHAT A MESS. WET AND DREARY WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINATION OF RAIN/SNOW LINE AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED TO BE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WITH
INCREASING POPS TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL LET CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4
AM FOR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.

00Z MODELS INDICATE SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY TO CUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE UPPER LOW LINGERS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS
PROFILE AT THIS TIME BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

06Z TAFS

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPOTTY
PRECIP COULD STILL OCCUR AT KLNK/KOMA THRU ABOUT 12-13Z...AND AT
KOFK THROUGH 14-15Z. SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT KOFK COULD ALSO SEE
A RA/SN MIX AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY AFFECT THE KLNK/KOMA
TAFS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 10/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-
     012-016-017-031.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT/DEWALD

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

000
FXUS63 KGID 101754
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KGRI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...A DEFORMATION RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
STILL SPINNING OVER NE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREA...DROPPING SOME LIGHT RAIN. VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND/OR FOG/MIST. THIS
BAND OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE KGRI AREA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AS WELL...AND WILL CARRY
IMPROVED VSBYS IN THE TAF. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG THIS EVENING AS
TEMPS COOL...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY MIDNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY FOG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THEN NORTH ALONG THE MO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTS AROUND 30
KTS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRATUS TO KEEP
CIGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN THE 400-1500 FT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
OTHER AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE NORTHEAST BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE LOWS TRY TO DUMBBELL AROUND EACH
OTHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE LOW FURTHER NORTH WEAKENS AND THE
SOUTHERN LOW IS PULLED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE
NORTHERN LOW. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THESE LOWS.
EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NORTH BETWEEN THESE LOWS. WITH THE POSITION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SINCE THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OUT
THERE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE COLDER AIR WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST.
IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN...BUT PART OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COOL ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
MOVES IN. THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE COLD AIR THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND EXPECT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE LATER WHEN THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND AS THAT
HAPPENS THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. DURING
THE NIGHT COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DURING THE EVENING
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH A MIX THROUGH THE CENTRAL. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
EAST. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AGAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND TO THE EAST
THEN STARTS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE EAST WHILE THE WEST WILL HAVE LESSER CHANCE. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE A LITTLE CHALLENGING AS WELL. COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
KEEP SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE AREA AND DURING THE NIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BUT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW COULD GIVE WAY TO RAIN. MADE NO
CHANGES TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion