75°F
Updated:
7/31/2026
2:32:22pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
093 FXUS63 KOAX 311835 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and cooler conditions are building into the area for the weekend. - Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level low spinning near the Minnesota/Iowa border with ridging over the Four Corners area. Sfc analysis indicates the sfc low spinning in central Iowa near Iowa Falls. The OAX CWA is mostly obscured by wrap-around overcast skies at about 2,000 feet. A few radar returns over western Iowa are producing sprinkles at best with iso PoPs continuing on the far eastern edges of the CWA through about 7pm this evening. The primary concern is the low`s affect on our winds, currently gusting 20-30 knots. Those winds are expected to peak around 35 knots this afternoon and near wind advisory criteria. Have opted to forgo issuing one, but it is close. Should they overperform, one might need to be issued later this afternoon. Humidity has slipped. Dewpoints are down a couple of degrees from yesterday and are expected to drop by a bigger margin for Saturday. The NBM`s numbers were too high and I took care of that. I`ve also increased cloud cover a bit due to the impact of the elevated wildfire smoke drifting in from the north. That smoke is forecast to peak over the area around 4am Sunday morning at 40-60 mg/m2. I added a 25% minimum for cloud cover late tonight into Sunday and if anything, that`s underestimating how much sunshine the smoke will be blocking. .SATURDAY and SUNDAY... With the continued northwesterly flow and reduced insolation, temps will fall short of seasonal norms on Saturday. Expect peaks in the lower to mid-80s. Sunday should be mostly sunny despite the lingering smoke that should remain elevated off the sfc. As the sfc low continues east and the western ridging noses toward Minnesota, winds will slow and return flow should develop by the afternoon. Highs will best those of Saturday by a couple of degrees. .NEXT WEEK... A Canadian trof plowing east across the southern provinces will drag a cold front into the area Tuesday-ish and will leave it stalled in the vicinity. This, working in concert with passing shortwave energy, should bring regular opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday night`s PoPs peak at 75% for areas along and north of I-80. Precip amounts could be good as PWATs will be climbing back into the 2" range thanks to a good southerly mean wind from the Gulf. Machine learning guidance suggests that severe weather chances could accompany the rain, but confidence is too low get too excited just yet. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 MVFR cigs have built back into the area today from north to south with overcast skies at FL020. Strong NW winds are generally gusting near 20 knots and are expected to peak at 30-35 knots this afternoon and evening. Cigs will improve to VFR conditions around 22Z this afternoon as they slowly lift. Winds will peak around the same time before slowing after dark. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
524 FXUS63 KGID 311904 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs between Friday and Monday will gradually raise a few degrees each day back to the upper 80s and 90s. - The next chance of precipitation (20-60%; increasing towards the north) falls Tuesday night for central Nebraska as a cold front look possible to sweep through the area. - Highs may take a 10-15 degree drop heading into Tuesday/Wednesday (upper 70s to low 90s). Another mini warm up is favored to follow into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Following the passage of last nights cold front, a "cooler" and drier airmass has settled into the area today. A 1008mb surface low centered across Iowa this afternoon has helped steer the breezy northerly winds for today (gusts as high as 30-45MPH). These gusty winds will gradually lighten through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave trough (the disturbance responsible for developing last nights storms) continues to shift east and away. This will leave space for a southwest U.S. ridge to grow and expand up into the Central Plains area over the weekend. Rising pressure from this building ridge will help maintain dry conditions as subsidence works to keep the skies mostly clear. In addition, a mini warm up will transpire from Friday to Monday as sunny skies and southerly turning surface winds return (a mix of warm air advection and diurnal heating). Highs between today and Monday will gradually increase a few degrees each day, residing mostly in the 90s by Monday. A few far southeast Nebraska and western Kansas locations could even near the low triple digits (30- 60% chance). The next major pattern change will come Tuesday as a northwest U.S. trough is favored to push into the central and northern Plains. The next chance for precipitation in the forecast will come with this pattern shift Tuesday night as a cold front looks to pass out ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Our chances for precipitation for Tuesday night has increased slightly for our Nebraska areas (20%-40% for areas just north of the state line and up to 50-65% for locations north of I-80). This slight increase in confidence comes as ensemble model guidance begins to narrows down on the timing of the arrival of the aforementioned trough. Given that this event falls outside of the range for higher- resolution short-term model guidance, we are not able to provide many additional details in regard to specifics (coverage or intensity) at this time. This event, however, will be the areas next best potential for scattered storms. Model confidence past Tuesday is a little more uncertain (widening gap between the 25th and 75th NBM percentiles or wider range of modeled outcomes). This increase in uncertainty comes as the the two leading LREF clusters begin to show diverging scenarios to how the mid-week trough may progress. Depending on how long this feature lingers over the region, its presence will impact the forecast through the rest of the week. The leading cluster/scenario (weighted more on the ENS & GEPS ensembles) is leaning more on a drier and warmer end to next week with the second leading cluster/scenario (weighted more towards the GEFS) leans toward a more mild and wetter end to next week. We will continue to iron out the details for the mid to end of week forecast as the cone of uncertainty begins to narrow more. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A few low-level stratus may temporarily break in and out of mainly KGRI across the next few hours. These clouds will eventually scatter out for the afternoon/evening, leaving VFR conditions in place through the remainder of the period. Winds this afternoon to early evening will continue to occasionally gust as high as 30-40kts with speeds ramping down between 23z and 4z. Wind direction will remain out of the north to northwest. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump
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