Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

467
FXUS63 KOAX 051832
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
132 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A rain-snow mix is possible (30-50% PoPs) late tonight into
  Monday morning across portions of northeast Nebraska into
  west-central Iowa with little to no accumulation expected.

- Rain is expected to mix with and then change over to all snow
  across portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Monday
  night into Tuesday morning. Some 1-3" accumulations appear
  possible with a 40-60% chance of slippery roads during the
  Tuesday morning commute.

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and
  storm chances from Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tonight through Tuesday:

A short-wave trough over northern MN and northwest Ontario this
afternoon will continue southeast into the upper Great Lakes with an
associated surface cold front moving through the area tonight.
Strengthening frontogenesis within the post-frontal environment will
support a narrow band of light precipitation late tonight into
Monday across portions of southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest
IA. There is some model variability in exactly where the band will
setup with the highest PoPs of 30-50% across our northern
counties. Forecast soundings valid around sunrise Monday morning
indicate near-ground temperature profiles supportive of a rain-
snow mix with some question as to whether a complete change over
to light snow will occur. Either way, deep-layer saturation is
expected to be somewhat transient with little to no snow
accumulation expected.

Periods of light rain remain possible on Monday afternoon,
especially in far eastern NE and southwest IA, with highs in the 40s
to low/mid 50s.

On Monday night into Tuesday morning, strengthening low/mid-
level frontogenesis will contribute to the organization of a
more intense precipitation band from portions of eastern NE into
northern MO (50-70% PoPs). Precipitation will likely start out
as rain before transitioning to a rain-snow mix and then to all
snow. Forecast soundings indicate a relatively long duration of
deep-layer saturation with upward vertical motion extending
into the dendritic-growth zone. In addition, model cross
sections suggest the presence of weak convective instability
within the 700-500-mb layer, which would enhance precipitation
rates. The various ensemble systems have trended toward greater
snowfall potential with generally a 60-80% chance of an inch or
more accumulations, and a 10-30% chance of three-inch or more
accumulations. The exact location of the snow band remains
uncertain; however, area residents should be prepared for a few
slippery roads during the Tuesday morning commute (40-60%
chance).

Continued warm advection and the glancing influence of a weak, mid-
level disturbance will maintain a chance of rain (30-50% PoPs)
Tuesday afternoon, especially along and to the north of a warm front
lifting north into the area. High temperatures will range from mid
40s in our northern counties to upper 50s to low 60s in the
southwest part of our area, to the south of the warm front.


Tuesday night through Saturday:

The global models have trended south in the track of a significant
mid-level trough, which is forecast to move along the U.S./Canadian
border in the Tuesday night-Wednesday night timeframe. An associated
surface low is expected to move east along the SD/NE border Tuesday
night with a trailing cold front moving through the mid-MO Valley on
Wednesday. Steepening lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints
increasing through the 40s to around 50 ahead of front will
contribute to weak instability and potential for scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highest PoPs
of 40-70% are indicated Wednesday night.

A low-level jet is forecast to persist across the pre-frontal warm
sector Wednesday, resulting in strong southwest winds with gusts
up to 35 mph. Temperatures will be warmer than previous days
with highs in the 60s to low 70s. While winds will be weaker
behind the front, relative humidity is forecast to fall into the
25-30% range in northeast NE Wednesday afternoon, leading to
very high fire danger.

The surface front is forecast to stall across KS and MO on Thursday
and Friday beneath a quasi-zonal, mid-level flow regime. Persistent
warm advection to the north of the boundary in conjunction with weak
disturbances passing near and to the north of the area will support
continued shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, the highest of
which will be across southeast NE and southwest IA. Daytime
temperatures will be a bit cooler (compared to Wednesday) with
readings in the 50s and 60s.

By Saturday, there is some model signal that the front may move
north back into the area, leading to continued shower and
thunderstorm chances as well as warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

Various machine-learning guidance shows an increasing chance of at
least isolated severe-weather potential from Friday into the
weekend, so that is something we will be keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with increasing mid/high-level cloudiness tonight into
Monday morning. Northwest winds of 11-13 kt with gusts of 18-22
kt this afternoon diminish by 06/00z. The models indicate the
development of a light precipitation band late tonight into
Monday morning with the best potential for that occurrence being
to the north of the terminal locations.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

178
FXUS63 KGID 051917
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
217 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow may fall across portions of the area Monday night
  into Tuesday morning. Little to no snow accumulation is
  expected.

- Various rain chances are present Monday through Friday night.
  The highest chances (60% to near 80%) are Friday through
  Saturday night.

- Thunderstorms are possible beginning Wednesday afternoon
  (20%-30% chance).

- Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with a warmup through
  Wednesday then cooler temperatures through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A broad upper trough is over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the
country with an upper ridge centered over Arizona and New Mexico.
South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are on
the backside of the upper trough with winds mostly out of the west
to northwest. High temperatures today will be in the 60s and low 70s
with sunny to mostly sunny skies. Winds will become easterly to
northeasterly tonight as a surface high begins to move over much of
the area. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 30s.

A cold front will affect much of the forecast area on Monday with
high temperatures expected to range from the 40s across the north to
the 70s in the south. Winds will remain out of the east Monday night
as atmospheric lift increases across the area. A mix of rain and
snow is possible (15% to 50% chance) Monday night. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected. Low temperatures Monday night will be in
the 20s and 30s. There is some uncertainty Tuesday with high
temperatures due to uncertainty with how far north a warm front will
move. High temperatures may range from the 70s in the far southwest
to the 40s in the far north. Light rain will also be possible on
Tuesday (up to 50% chance) mainly along and north of the front.
Winds will increase out of the south as the warm front lifts
northward Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in
the 30s and 40s with 50s possible across the far south.

An upper trough will move over the northern and central Plains on
Wednesday with a cold front beginning to move into the area.
Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on
Wednesday. Showers and storms may develop (20% to 45% chance)
Wednesday afternoon along the front with chances increasing to 45%
to 65% Wednesday night. Cooler air is expected to move into the area
on Thursday with some uncertainty remaining on high temperatures.
This cooler air will remain in place on Friday. A warm up is
expected on Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s as winds increase
out of the south. Various precipitation chances continue Thursday
through Saturday night with the highest chances (60% to near 80%)
Friday through Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
transition from the west to the north northwest by 00z then to
the east by 03z. Winds will increase out of the east by 15z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion