67°F
Updated:
7/15/2026
04:05:21am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
696 FXUS63 KOAX 150507 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1207 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog develops again overnight. Temperatures rise into the upper 80s and low 90s Wednesday afternoon. - Stretch of hot weather continues into the weekend. Heat indices will be around 100 to 105F at times from Friday into Sunday. - Dry conditions expected through at least late Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Tonight and Wednesday... High pressure continues to prevail over the region, keeping us warm and dry. Temperatures generally reached the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 60s. Patchy fog will once again be possible across parts of the forecast area, especially in low lying areas, where crossover temperatures are reached and winds diminish. Any fog that does develop should burn off shortly after sunrise Wednesday. Highs will be similar to the last few days, in the upper 80s and low 90s. Friday and Beyond... Temperatures continue to ramp up as we head into the latter half of the week. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s by Friday and Saturday, with several locations potentially reaching 100 on Sunday. While not overly extreme, dewpoints have continued to trend slightly higher than guidance recently. If this continues through the weekend, heat indices may reach 100-105. Meanwhile, overnight lows are forecast to remain in the lower 70s, providing little relief from the daytime heat. While certainly not a slam dunk, heat headlines may need to be considered for Friday through Sunday. A low pressure system moving out of Canada toward the Great Lakes will work to flatten the upper ridge late this weekend. While better precipitation chances will unfortunately skirt the forecast area, this system will drag a cold front through the Central Plains, bringing us some relief from the heat. Behind the front, northwesterly upper level flow appears to return. If this remains the case, we could see a few short waves rounding the ridge and bringing precipitation chances back to the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR conditions continue to prevail. Light winds and mostly clear skies are anticipated tonight. Very patchy morning fog is expected, but aviation impacts are unlikely. Southeast winds and a few cumulus around FL070-080 develop by Wednesday afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
061 FXUS63 KGID 150749 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Look for a some smoke on the eastern horizon today though it should remain mostly aloft. - Temperatures on a slow climb to the upper 90s by the weekend resulting in triple digit heat index values. - Overall dry conditions are expected to continue into early next week, but a stray shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out (mainly Thursday). && .UPDATE... Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The story remains essentially the same as the last few mornings: summer temperatures heating up this weekend, and chances for any precipitation of significance are very low. Today will be dry though we may see a bit more afternoon cumulus this afternoon. We will also see more smoke, this time migrating west/northwest from the mid-Mississippi Valley around the upper level high pressure. A thick plume of smoke was already into western Missouri by last evening. The HRRR smoke model hasn`t handled this smoke well (not enough smoke/too far north), but the general drift of the smoke should be to the north/northwest early today. This band of smoke is aloft and air quality stations in the Plains/Midwest do not show any significant surface impacts. Look for a colorful sunrise this morning, and possibly the feel of filtered sunshine through the first half of the day. Even with the smoke, high temperatures today should eek out a couple more degrees and still be around 90 (give or take). While the forecast is dry through Monday, it is not completely implausible that a few showers or a thunderstorm pops up late Thursday afternoon, mainly southeast of Hastings. A small disturbance is migrating west/northwest through Arkansas and could trip a couple of showers between 4 and 8 PM Thursday, though the chance at any one location is less than 15%, and the forecast doesn`t currently reflect any rain chance until next week. Look for temperatures to rise steadily the rest of the week and into the weekend, peaking Saturday/Sunday. Heat indices will also creep up too peaking the 98 to 103 degree range. There may be some areas, especially east of Highway 281 which could be pushing Heat Advisory criteria. This is the main item to watch this weekend. A cold front will push through the area Monday. The front should be basically dry thanks to very warm mid-level temperatures capping things off. Monday could also be a pretty hot day as moisture may pool ahead of/along the front and winds look light. However, relief comes the middle of next as temperatures fall back to the 80s and dewpoints drop into the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Ridging continues to dominate the upper level pattern through this week. Near-normal temperatures today (upper 80s and low 90s) will trend warmer through the remainder of the workweek and will peak this weekend. Temperatures for this weekend have trended a touch higher. This is especially true for Sunday where the 50th percentile NBM is near 100 degrees for the entire area. Heat index values don`t look to be "extreme," but a few areas could see values as high as 105. The model consensus favors dry conditions through the weekend, although a few models hint at isolated convection as moisture and weak lift nudge in from the south. This would primarily be Thursday, although it would not be impossible to see something isolated any day through the weekend. All that being said, the strong consensus is for dry conditions to prevail for the majority of the area. Global ensembles depict an 80-100% chance for less than 0.10" through Monday. Normal rainfall during this period is roughly 0.10" per day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period with some light haze from smoke possible along with a few diurnally driven fair weather CU possible aft about 15/17Z. Overall, winds will be light at less than 12 KTS out of the east southeast throughout the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Rossi
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