Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

251
FXUS63 KOAX 190103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
803 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and windy conditions this afternoon will lead to extreme
  fire danger through 8 PM.

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with
  temperatures near freezing in parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to
  extreme fire danger again for Monday and Wednesday.

- The next good chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives in the
  second half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Wind speeds continue to decrease this evening. Relative humidity
will slowly increase tonight as temperatures cool. With the
decreasing fire danger, the Red Flag Warning has been allowed
to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The axis of a long wave trough is pushing east across the region
today with a couple of embedded short wave circulations. Cold
air advection rules the region with widespread northwesterly
flow. The cold advection is deep and with quite a bit of
sunshine has actually allowed for a rather deeply mixed boundary
layer. This in combination with the added forcing for vertical
motion with the embedded short wave troughs has led to the
development of light convective rain showers or sprinkles west
of the area at mid day. These should continue to move southeast,
and expect that some locations from Albion toward Lincoln may
experience sprinkles or even enough of a shower to wet the
sidewalk this afternoon. Don`t believe this convection will be
deep enough to support lightning, but with the Red Flag
conditions in the area (deep mixing has also led to low RH at
the surface and wind gusts of 30-35 mph), any rogue lightning
strike could be an issue. Winds continue through sunset,
although gradually decreasing. This should allow for some
efficient cooling a few hours after sunset, but most guidance
and observational data suggests that there should be enough of a
pressure gradient overnight to keep a breeze going and perhaps
keep overnight lows at or above the freezing mark. So for now,
have not issued any freeze products overnight, and would also
like to note that the growing season has not necessarily
progressed to the point of issuing freeze warnings in a chunk of
northeast Nebraska. Farther south though, it is less likely to
reach the freezing mark.

Another cool front pushes through Sunday morning and winds may
gust to 20 mph in the morning hours before settling down in the
afternoon. Temperatures warm into the lower 60s, and with
lighter afternoon winds it should be a rather pleasant day.

Upper level ridging builds into the Central Plains for Monday
through Wednesday with a warming trend bring temps into the
upper 80s by late Wednesday. Both Monday and Wednesday will be
warm, dry, and windy...with Wednesday probably being warmer and
windier. Both of these days could see very high to extreme fire
danger.

Model guidance is quite consistent in a longer wave trough
taking shape over the northwest CONUS through this time, and
ejecting into the Northern Plains by Thursday. Depending on
timing of the system, this could bring one or more days of
thunderstorm chances, with a potentially favorable setup for
strong to severe storms, and eyes will be on the time period
from late Wednesday into Friday...with Thursday afternoon and
evening seeming to be the most likely time based on current
model guidance timing the system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Gusty northwest winds and scattered cumulus will dissipate over
the next hour or two as sunset occurs. Wind speeds decrease tonight
and back around towards the west by early morning due to surface
high pressure. A weak front moves through the region after
sunrise shifting winds back around to the north.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Chehak
DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

128
FXUS63 KGID 182335
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag warning remain in effect until 8PM tonight.
  Northwest winds gusting as high as 25-35MPH with low relative
  humidity brings widespread critical fire weather conditions
  to the entire area.

- Below freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to low 30s will
  be possible tonight across areas mainly along and east of
  HWY- 281.

- The next precipitation potential does not arrive in the
  forecast until Wednesday (20-35%) and Thursday (25-45%). The
  best precipitation potential both nights will be concentrated
  to the north and east.

- Temperatures will warm up to the upper 70s and 80s by Monday
  with a cold front passing through later in the week, dropping
  highs for Friday (upper 50s to mid 60s)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026


The gusty northwest winds, dragging in a cooler airmass today, have
helped keep highs from escaping out of the upper 50s to low 60s. As
result of the gusty conditions with dry relative humidity, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect until 8PM tonight. Please refer to
the fire weather section below for more more information.

Winds this evening and tonight will become light. The calm
conditions will once again allow temperatures to drop down near to
just under freezing (Overnight Lows: upper 20s to low 30s). The
coldest temperatures overall will be concentrated towards the
northwest portions of the area. Locations near and mainly west of
HWY-281 will have the best potential for temperatures to drop below
freezing for a few hours tonight (1-6 hours). Given the slightly
warmer temperatures compared the the night previous and given the
short residence time of the freezing temperatures, a freeze warning
was not concentrated at this time. Though the very light winds could
break way for a few areas of frost formation (best chances northeast
of the Tri-Cities), the lowered RH values overnight (40-65% max) is
expected to limit the overall coverage of frost.

The exit of a upper-level Central to North Central Plains trough
with an upstream building ridge west of the area, will establish
northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week.
Temperatures will be on the up and up through Tuesday with highs in
the mid 60s and 70s Sunday, upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and the mid-
to-upper 80s Tuesday.

Light easterly winds will setup Sunday among a weak surface pressure
gradient. Pressure falls to the west with rising pressure to the
east on Monday will help sandwich in southerly winds. The next
chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the broad
ridging pattern transitions over to a slow approaching trough.
Though 20-35% PoPs return Wednesday night, the slightly better
chances for the week (25-45%) lie Thursday. It is advised not to
raise one`s hopes quiet yet on meaningful precipitation
accumulations as early on QPF forecast keep the area mainly under
0.25" of precipitation (several completely dry areas towards the south
and west). The best potential will be concentrated to the north and
east.

Besides the weak precipitation chances, stronger and gustier winds
look to return to the area Wednesday through Friday afternoon. These
stronger winds will likely come as a surface cyclone sweeps through
the Northern Plains. Temperatures behind a cold front Thursday will
look to knock highs out of the upper 70s and 80s for Friday (upper
50s to mid 60s). Drier conditions with periods of gusty winds will
keep fire weather concerns in and around the area next week. For
more information regarding the fire weather potential, please refer
to the fire weather section below.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
weaken this evening and become mostly variable. Winds will
strengthen a little and become northerly by 18z then will
become northeast to east northeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026


Gusty northwest winds today blowing between 15-25MPH and gusting up
to 35MPH will continue through the afternoon to early evening hours.
The strongest winds today have set up along/north of Interstate 80.
Despite highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s, dewpoints in the
single digits and teens have resulted in relative humidity values as
low as 12-22%. As result of the dry conditions and gusty winds,
critical fire weather conditions have set up across the entire area.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the full area until 8PM.
While winds drop off after sunset due to a loss of atmospheric
mixing, relative humidity values will be slower to improve,
remaining below 40-65% overnight.

Fire weather concerns will be limited Sunday as lighter winds will
generally gust below 20mph. Relative humidity values of 10-20% are
possible along and southwest of the Tri-Cities during the afternoon.
Near-critical conditions will potentially develop across portions of
Phillips/Smith/Rooks/Osborne counties where gusts of up to 20-25mph
can`t be ruled out.

Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible across at
least a portion of the area Monday-Friday due to the overlap of low
humidity (10-20% and breezy winds (gusts at least 20-30mph). The
strongest winds and likely worst fire weather conditions for the
week should occur Wednesday-Friday. The main forecast feature that
will determine the fire weather potential each day will be where the
driest conditions set up each afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion