Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

260
FXUS63 KOAX 102309
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
509 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Channels have widened for portions of the Platte and Elkhorn
  Rivers, with some ice remaining on the Loup and Elkhorn. With
  that in mind, portions of the previous Flood Watch continue
  until 1 PM Wednesday.

- Temperatures are on the climb, with highs today in the 40s/50s
  only set to improve through the next 7 days.

- Chances for rain glance the area Thursday and Saturday, with
  neither one expected to bring more than 0.1" to any one
  location.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a belt of moisture and
lift spilling over southern the California and into a northern
mid/upper jet streak while a subtropical jet streak works its
way over the southern most tier of states. We find ourselves on
the cooler end of the cold front that passed through the area
yesterday, with low clouds from earlier today quickly
dissipating in the afternoon sun. Despite its passage, we`re
still well above normal temperatures for this time of year
(highs in the upper 30s), with most of the area expected to hit
the 40s and even 50 degrees in some spots. Over the last 24
hours, we`ve seen quite a bit of ice movement on the Platte,
Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers, with wide channels opening up for good
portions of the Platte and Elkhorn. Even with that improvement,
ice does remain in place on the Loup and northern reaches of
the Elkhorn River, and we have extended the Flood Watch already
in place forward into tomorrow until 1 PM for the sections of
those rivers in question. Temperatures through the forecast
remain supportive of the remaining ice to move out, with highs
only increasing from here on out. Overnight into the early
morning models have been hinting at some very isolated pockets
of river valley fog, favoring the NE/IA border and western Iowa
starting at 4-5 AM.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Our initial dry weather continues into Wednesday, with high
temperatures seeing a bump into the mid 50s thanks to a building
thermal ridge to the west and southwesterly winds. Late in the day
and into Thursday, a shortwave/clipper will traverse the Northern
Plains, giving the forecast its first shot at precipitation. Thermal
profiles in the area favor rain over any snow in eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa, with snow lovers needing to head towards
Minnesota or northeastern Iowa to see any flakes fly. For those that
do see rain, they`ll likely be limited to far northeast Nebraska and
portions of western Iowa, with any amounts being limited to 0.05" or
less before it scoots to the east by noon. Highs both Thursday and
Friday see another bump up into the upper 50s for most of the area,
further reinforcing the abnormally warm start to February that we`ve
seen so far.

Our next chance at precipitation arrives Saturday, as a compact
shortwave that quickly coalesces off the Baja and ejects across the
Desert Southwest into the Central and Southern Plains. While the
surface low tracks across Oklahoma through Saturday, a shield of
precipitation will stretch north of it into Kansas. Deterministic
models continue to keep any rainfall south of the forecast area with
the latest runs, but ensembles continue to hold at least a little
hope that southeast Nebraska could see a trace of moisture, but
nothing more than 0.1". As it moves east of the area, we`ll see a
ridge build heights across the central CONUS, propping up
temperatures Sunday that eventually peak Tuesday into the 60s, as a
deep trough takes shape to the west. Long term outlooks vastly
differ from model to model on how and when the trough ejects/unpacks
from the Intermountain West, but the feature will represent our next
chance at widespread moisture for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Winds remain out of the
north-northwest this evening but will be shifting to southerly
by 12Z Wednesday. Expect winds to stay out of the south through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NEZ016-017-031-032-
     042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

803
FXUS63 KGID 102323
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
523 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures (50s/60s) will continue across the local
  area for at least the next 7 days with highs potentially
  reaching 70 again early next week. To put this in perspective,
  normal high temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s
  across the local area during mid-February.

- For at least the next 24-48 hours, the anticipated warmth
  will contribute to a continued risk for localized ice jam
  flooding along those portions of the Platte and Loup River
  systems where ice still exists.

- The combination of breezy south winds and low RH values will
  result in a few hours of elevated to near critical fire
  weather conditions across our far western areas Wednesday
  afternoon.

- The anticipated low pressure system for the Friday
  Night/Saturday time frame continues to trend south. Despite
  modest POPs (15-40%, highest Kansas), unless something
  drastically changes, much of the local area may receive no
  precipitation over this period at all.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cold front crossed the local area early this morning bringing
modestly cooler temperatures, breezy north winds, and variable
cloud cover today. Despite high temperatures topping out "only"
around 50, temperatures remain well above seasonal norms for
this time of year.

With an area of surface high pressure sliding south across the
area tonight, expect temperatures to plummet as winds diminish,
but for a mix of mid/high level cloud cover to help mitigate
their potential drop. Even so, this will likely be the coolest
night of the period with most locations bottoming out in the
lower to mid 20s.

As high pressure aloft then begins to amplify across the plains
in response to a west coast low tomorrow, expect temperatures
to climb further (by 2-5 degrees) across the local area, with
variable cloud cover potentially holding down afternoon temps a
bit from their potential. That said, as temperatures climb and
southerly winds increase in return flow around the surface high
tomorrow afternoon, could see a few hours of elevated to near
critical fire weather concerns across our extreme west (mainly
west of HWY 183) during the afternoon hours, so opted to
introduce this potential into the HWO.

Thereafter...the west coast low is expected to move onshore
across southern California/Baja later this week, eventually
sliding south of the local area over the weekend. Originally
this system was expected to track further north, spreading some
precip across the central Plains, but trends have kept this
system south, and am not overly optimistic that much
precipitation, if any, locally, will be realized. Will continue
to monitor in case the system tries to shift north, but based on
the last couple of days, the blended pops of 15-40% across our
area Friday afternoon into Saturday look plenty generous.

Of notable difference from the forecast a few days ago,
temperatures continue to trend upward toward early next week as
another ridge of high pressure builds across the plains. This
could eventually lead to temperatures returning to the 70s early
next week before the subsequent west coast low traverses the
local area mid-week (likely dry) dropping temperatures back down
into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable
winds are expected overnight. Southerly winds around 10kts are
expected during the late morning through the end of the TAF
period. SCT-BKN high level clouds will persist throughout the
TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Localized threat for ice jam flooding continues along the
  Platte and Loup River systems through at least Wednesday:

Although the "peak" of recent warmth is behind us, a prolonged
stretch of solidly above normal temperatures will persist for
many days to come in central/south central NE (highs mainly
50s/60s...overnight lows only slightly below freezing at most).
As a result, continued ice melt/movement will persist for at
least a few more days along the Platte/Loup River systems in the
northern half of our forecast area. Until the ice sufficiently
melts and/or "flushes out" downstream/east of our forecast area,
localized ice jams cannot be ruled out...with the main window
of continued concern expected to be over the next 24-48 hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch/Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion