68°F
Updated:
8/2/2026
11:17:45pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
934 FXUS63 KOAX 030306 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1006 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temps climb another few degrees for Monday as elevated wildfire smoke continues to produce hazy skies. - Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday. - Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another warming trend likely toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 It`s another mostly clear evening with temperatures in the 70s as of 10pm. Fog from early this morning is not expected to repeat tonight due to winds persisting out of the south around 5 to 15 mph. If we were to see anything it would be in sheltered areas more likely in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa where winds are weakest. Temperatures forecast to fall into the mid 60s by daybreak. Looking at satellite and the upper-level pattern, we see the ridge centered over the Northern Plains with a broad trough over the Ohio River Vally stretching down into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Out to the northwest we have another broad trough over the Canadian Rockies that will play a role in helping to squash down the ridge over the Northern Plains over the next few days. Monday will be very similar to today. We`ll see strengthening southerly flow ramping up ahead of the deepening area of low pressure across the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle. This will help temperatures warm a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s across southwest Iowa and lower 90s for eastern Nebraska. Monday evening a fully developed frontal boundary will trigger showers and storms across central Nebraska into northeast South Dakota. As the front approaches through the evening we see increased elevated instability in the region of pooling moisture to our west. As the front arrives, though, hi- res guidance really eats away at the amount of instability with the best environment in our area being around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE over northeast Nebraska between 05-10Z. Bulk shear around that time stays insignificant until you get behind the cold front lending toward little-to-no severe threat across our area. Any stronger storms approaching should decay as they arrive. Showers and storms should arrive around midnight or just after, scattered in nature with more widespread showers and storms likely not arriving until closer to midday Tuesday. The cold front drops south but stalls across our area on Tuesday acting as a focus for increased moisture through the afternoon. Model guidance really doesn`t show much of a trigger, but the HRRR really blows up along the boundary during the afternoon. May be a case of the HRRR overconvecting. In any case, if storms were to get going during the afternoon, hodographs show modest, but not insignificant amount of shear. Bulk shear values of 35-40kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This could organize a few stronger storms, but again, we may not have enough forcing to get storms really going during the afternoon. Better chances look to be as a shortwave skirts us to our north potentially triggering some elevated storms overnight along the frontal boundary. Model soundings show winds are fairly unidirectional through the unstable layer at this time indicating not a significant severe threat with these storms. The forecast beyond Tuesday will greatly depend on how storms shift the surface boundary Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Areas north of the front starting Tuesday will see the Canadian High keep temperatures fairly cool for this time of year with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. This remains true for areas north of the front on Wednesday, which likely will be over most of our area as the front should push south of the Nebraska-Kansas state line for Wednesday. Broad troughing over the Central US as well as a jet streak positioned from southern Idaho east through Wyoming and Nebraska will lend toward additional shortwaves bringing more chances for showers and storms along and north of this frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday. Shouldn`t be a complete wash-out all day, but do think many across our area will see at least some rainfall. We expect a swath of heavier amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches just north of the frontal boundary, right now looking to be near the I-80 corridor from around Lincoln to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Amounts drop off north and south with around a tenth of an inch or less north around Antelope County east through Monona as well as a tenth to a quarter of an inch in far southeast Nebraska and near the Missouri state line in Iowa. Thursday we should see the trough dig far enough south to push rain chances down into Kansas and Missouri. With the Canadian High still in place, temperatures will remain mild, though clearer skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low 80s. Smoke could be a concern Thursday as subsidence from the high centered across our area may allow it to sink toward the ground, but we won`t have a good idea of the extent until hi-res guidance comes out 36-48 hours in advance. The forecast toward the end of the week becomes more difficult as the ridge over the Desert Southwest fights to build back up while an active troughing pattern over the PacNW fights it back down. Models diverge significantly in the details including any potential rain chances for our area, but the general trend is for temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s on Friday and low 90s for the weekend as that ridge expands eastward over the Central and Southern Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Southerly winds will begin to gust around mid-morning. Skies may be a bit hazy with some smoke well aloft, but do not anticipate any flight condition impacts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Barjenbruch
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
844 FXUS63 KGID 022331 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Forecast remains dry through the daytime hours on Monday. An approaching surface cold front will provide a focus for storm development...with some of this activity pushing east into the area during the evening-overnight hours. - Additional chances for storms continue on into Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly focused on the late day-evening/overnight hours. Some uncertainties remain, as activity could be impacted by how sfc boundaries/lingering cloud cover evolve from the previous nights. - Not out of the question that some storms Mon-Tue could be on the stronger side, at this point there doesn`t look be an overly organized severe weather threat across our area. - Scattered precipitation chances continue on through the end of the week, with lowering confidence in the details the further out you go. - Highs on Monday are back up in the 90s-near 100...cooling Tue- Wed into the 70s-80s with increased precip chances. Highs look to return back solidly into the 90s by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 Currently Through Tonight... Overall been a nice end to the weekend across the area...dry conditions continue, with satellite imagery showing no shortage of sunshine...though still seeing some hazy skies due to wildfire smoke streaming in from the north. A well-amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing northerly flow across the forecast area. The Central Plains is sitting between a ridge axis extending from the Desert SW northeastward toward MN...becoming more dampened/tilted further east thanks to a low pressure system moving through central Canada...and a trough axis extending from eastern Canada south to the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, high pressure continues to gradually shift off to the east...but is keeping winds light across easterly portions of the area. To the west and northwest, a trough axis and frontal boundary are becoming better organized across the High Plains into the western Dakotas...bringing more solidly southerly winds to central and western areas, with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...forecast of mid-upper 80s east to low-mid 90s west remains on track. Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight. Due to the continued deepening of the sfc low/boundaries off to our WNW, not expecting a drop off in winds tonight...remaining southerly around 10-15 MPH. Lows look to drop into the mid 60s for much of the area. Early to Mid-Week... Getting into the start of the new work week...overall there hasn`t been any significant changes to the forecast. During the daytime hours on Monday...models remain in good agreement showing an upper level disturbance working its way along the US/Can border into the Nrn Rockies/High Plains...the forecast for our area remains dry through 00Z. This system will be driving a surface cold front south with time...and models are still in decent agreement with the timing...showing at 00Z the placement of this front runs roughly from far SWrn NE north through the Sandhills and into central SD. Ahead of this front during the daytime hours...expecting gusty southerly winds and a bump up in temperatures. Sustained speeds around 20-25 MPH and gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question...with highs around 90 expected in the east, around 100 in the WSW. During the mid-late afternoon hours...the RH/wind combo hits near- critical levels across far WSW portions of the area...but with fuels unfavorable for rapid fire growth, no formal headlines were considered...just something to be aware of. Main question for the evening and overnight hours Monday lies with thunderstorm chances...still plenty of uncertainties with the overall coverage/impact. Models showing at least scattered activity firing along that surface boundary to work its way into WNW portions of the forecast area...aided by convergence along an increasing SSWrly low-level jet. With time, most models are keeping coverage of activity generally scattered in nature with its eastward shift...likely hindered by the fact that the better upper level forcing is better focused to our north and that mid-level/temps is another element storms would have to overcome. As a result, the higher precip chances in the evening (40-60 percent) are focused across far WNW portions of the area...then spread east but drop into the 20-30 percent range overnight. As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday...models are in good agreement showing that the upper level pattern has transitioned to more zonal in nature having further dampened the main ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue both days...as additional waves of upper level shortwave energy push through the region. Still plenty of uncertainties with the details...as timing/location of chances will be greatly influenced by activity that happens the previous evening/overnight...and how that impacts the ultimate placement of the main surface cold front or any other lingering boundaries. The most uncertainty with those details lies with Tuesday/Tuesday night...as what happens then may provide enough of a reinforcing push to focus better chances further south for Wednesday afternoon/overnight. With the increased cloud cover/precipitation potential...highs for Tue-Wed cool some...with Tuesday currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, Wednesday in the mid-70s to lower-80s. At this point, none of the days Monday-Wednesday are included in the SPC severe weather outlooks...though Monday/Day 2 is pretty close right along our NWrn edge. As mentioned above, there are some things working against Monday evening- overnight...and though models on Tuesday show the potential that shear may be a bit better, the overall upper level forcing isn`t the best...and just too much uncertainty in the details for Wednesday. Not out of the question that some storms could be on the stronger side...but at least at this point it`s not looking to be an organized severe weather threat. Late Week Into Next Weekend... Looking at Thursday on into next weekend...models showing the ridging trying to reamplify over the western CONUS, but between an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area and another working toward western Canada...additional systems moving through the pattern prevent much strengthening. Models show the upper level pattern across the area in varying degrees of northwesterly flow...and while the forecast has some scattered low-end (mainly 20 percent) chances, confidence in those are certainly not high at this point. Warmer temperatures also look to work their way back in...with highs potentially solidly back in the 90s by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period with some marginal LLWS possible at both terminals during the early morning hours Monday. Expect steady south winds near 10 KTS to continue into the evening hours as the local area remains sandwiched inbetween an area of surface high pressure to our east and surface low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies. While the surface winds will mostly decouple overnight, the pressure gradient aloft will continue to strengthen, with marginal LLWS becoming possible at KEAR around 03/06Z...and spreading east toward KGRI by around 03/10Z. Surface winds will then increase during the morning hours across the area as mixing in realized, with gusts near 25 KTS possible at both terminals by midday. No more than a few passing high clouds are expected through the period with southerly winds remaining too strong to justify the mention of even patchy BR at either terminal overnight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Rossi
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