Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

349
FXUS63 KOAX 071619
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with
  highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms Wednesday through
  Friday. Main hazards with any strong-severe storms will be
  damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

- A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Another quiet day today with mostly clear skies and light winds
generally out of the south. High pressure remains over the
region for one more day before a jet streak pushing east out of
California breaks down the ridge leading to a more active
weather pattern for the rest of the week. Highs today will peak
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices warming into the
low-to-mid 90s.

As the ridge breaks down, we`ll see the return of the low-level
jet, advecting more moisture into the region from the Gulf. At
the same time, we`ll see a shortwave pull the main active
frontal boundary back south to right near the Nebraska-South
Dakota state line. Over the next few days we`ll see shortwaves
interact with this boundary as well as nocturnal activation of
the low-level jet leading to periodic storm chances across our
area.

Wednesday with increasing moisture expect to see increasing
cloud cover, especially through the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures won`t be much warmer than we see today, but
humidity will be about 5 to 10 percent higher, bringing heat
indices up into the mid-to-upper 90s.

The previously mentioned shortwave moving through during the
day tomorrow could activate a few pop-up showers and storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threat with these
storms appears to be damaging winds due to dry air in the lower
levels keeping cloud bases fairly high. Model soundings show a
fairly decent inverted-v signature, indicative of a damaging
wind threat. Still think any severe weather will be fairly
isolated at this time due to weak environmental shear. The
better chance for more widespread storms will be with an MCS
rolling through out of central Nebraska overnight. This MCS
develops from afternoon/evening storms that start out over
eastern Colorado/western Nebraska, coming together and likely
maturing at it`s strongest over central Nebraska. As it moves
into our area, we should see a weakening trend with damaging
winds being the primary threat. This is corroborated by the SPC
Day 2 Convective Outlook showing a level 2 "slight" risk over
central Nebraska transitioning to a level 1 "marginal" risk over
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Thursday`s weather will be highly dependent on what happens with
storms overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, but guidance is
in fairly good agreement with showers lingering across our area
through Thursday morning. Cloud cover likely will keep
temperatures cooler through the afternoon, though highs will
still be in the 80s. Thursday night, we expect another MCS to
roll through, more across far southern portions of our area with
potential for more heavy rain and low threat for damaging
winds. Depending on this system`s track, we could see showers
and storms linger into Friday morning as well, with temperatures
again staying somewhat milder through the afternoon with highs
in the 80s.

Going into the weekend, we see a strong ridge start to build up
over the Rockies signaling a prolonged period of heat on it`s
way. Temperatures will start trending back upward on Saturday
while expanding High Pressure spreads over the Northern Plains
to Great Lakes region. Highs on Saturday will warm back into the
mid 80s to near 90, continuing this trend back into the upper
80s to mid 90s on Sunday. Extended guidance has slowed down the
warming trend, getting us closer to Extreme Heat more likely
toward Monday-Tuesday of next week now. Rain chances are likely
to dry up, so if you haven`t had to use your sprinklers yet this
season, you might want to make sure they`re working here soon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies.
winds staying generally out of the south.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

145
FXUS63 KGID 071119
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
619 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm again today.

- Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday (50-90% chance), especially
  during the evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe
  with damaging wind and large hail.

- Thunderstorms are expected redevelop for portions of the area
  on Thursday, although the coverage and intensity of storms is
  expected to be lesser than on Wednesday.

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms again on Friday, but
  drier conditions return for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today will be seasonably warm (highs in the low to mid 90s),
with a steady south wind gusting as high as 20-30 MPH in the
afternoon. Convection is expected to develop from eastern
Colorado up into the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, but this
should fizzle out well to the west. Dry conditions are expected
to prevail through Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms become likely as a cold front pushes
into the region. A few showers/storms could develop as early as
mid afternoon, but the main threat for severe weather is
expected to be in the evening hours. Exact convective evolution
is still somewhat uncertain, but models seem to support the idea
of one or more line segments moving through the area, promoting
a threat for severe wind (and hail, to a lesser extent). As
such, most of the area is now in a "Slight" severe risk (level
2 of 5).

The pattern remains largely stagnant on Thursday, although
surface high pressure nudging in from the north will keep the
highest t-storm chances in western and southern portions of the
area. Remnant cloud cover and cooler temperatures will likely
keep the severe threat lower than on Wednesday, but still a few
strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out.

The surface front continues southward on Friday. Most of the
area will likely remain dry, but a few thunderstorms could
redevelop, mainly over southern parts of the area.

Beyond Friday, precipitation chances are pretty slim through at
least the beginning of next week. A notable warmup is still on-
tap for next week, but questions remain about the magnitude and
duration of the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet today with some afternoon cumulus, south to southeasterly
winds a bit stronger than we`ve had the last couple days with
temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

The primary points to talk about in this forecast are the
Precipitation chances for mid and late week and the warm up for
the end of the forecast.

The current ridge that is building in from the four corners
region is not overly strong and a new disturbances are moving in
from the central/northern Pacific coast and will break the ridge
down. This will cause more quasi-zonal flow across the area,
allowing for the disturbances moving across the northern Plains
to impact us. The first and best chance for more widespread
precipitation, including the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along or
near a front that will be pushed east by a disturbance over the
Northern Plains. The Grand Ensemble (including GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
indicates that at least 76% of the ensemble solutions have at
least a trace at KGRI.

For Thursday, the best potential for thunderstorms actually
exists to the west of the area, primarily out in the High
Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, then after development it is
more likely to track southeast into western Kansas. The same
Grand Ensemble for Thursday at KGRI only includes 42 % that have
at least a trace at KGRI. Meanwhile, looking further west,
Thursday night shows a 59% chance of Precip greater than a
trace. This highlights the greater potential for precipitation
west of the area. That doesn`t mean it will necessarily be dry,
but it`s not as good of a chance as Wednesday.

Temperatures will be seasonal throughout the week. Highs in the
low 90s ahead of the wave on Wednesday with Thursday and Friday
briefly cooler (highs in the mid 80s).

Things change by the end of the weekend, as the overall upper
pattern changes with a ridge building into the intermountain
west. It will heat up for the week of July 13th. That being
said, watching the trends of the ECMWF Ensemble over the past 48
hours, the trend has actually been decreasing...in terms of
some of the crazy high temperatures (exceeding 100 degrees). Now
don`t take this to mean that it won`t still be a heat
wave/significant warm up, but it may not be as hot as some
guidance suggested a couple days ago. Wednesday and Thursday
July 15th-16th look to be some of the hottest days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Any
thunderstorms should remain well to the west through 12Z
Wednesday.

Winds today will be out of the south to southeast. Gusts near
20kts are expected in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion