Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

912
FXUS63 KOAX 140550
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week,
  particularly Tuesday and Friday.

- Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between
  systems.

- Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with
  agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows
  Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The forecast period begins with southwest flow over the region and
an upper level trough over northwestern Arizona. Low pressure
develops on the lee side of the Rockies overnight, lifting into
extreme southwestern Nebraska and central Nebraska by daybreak
Tuesday. Tuesday morning, a warm front develops as far north as
Omaha/Council Bluffs. Temperatures are expected to climb into the
80s behind the front and the 70s to the north of it. Heading further
into the day, the front will sag southward a little bit, nudging a
little closer to the NE/KS border.

Late afternoon into the evening, instability will increase across
southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg
and MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are expected. Storms are expected to
develop along the warm front during the evening, a few of which may
become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear
to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop.
The severe potential could go into the early morning hours.

The active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the
week with another shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners
region Tuesday and reaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas by
Wednesday morning. The low will remain over eastern Nebraska
Wednesday morning, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible
through the day. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north
on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern
Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the
evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong storms may
develop in the southeastern part of the CWA Wednesday evening.

Thursday is still expected to be a dry out day as a ridge moves
across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on
Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s
for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the
week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an
attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough
over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the
area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler
air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still
uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of
everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected,
with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty
in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to
monitor the forecast for potential changes.

Cooler air pushing in behind the front will result in a cooler
weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s, with low 30s
expected from David City to Thurston and areas north. Those with
agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures.
Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few
locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday
morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s
to the mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions expected overnight with a narrow band of
1500-3000 ft clouds favored to develop near OMA and LNK just
after sunrise. Can`t completely rule out a brief shower with
these, but unlikely to be very impactful. Higher shower and
storm chances arrive after 00Z, but confidence is low in any TAF
site being impacted, with guidance suggesting an area to the
north and an area to the south, with spotty activity in between.
Any storms near OMA and LNK could be strong to severe, with
hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, direction will be variable
at OMA and LNK, northeasterly through Tuesday morning, becoming
southwesterly during the afternoon, then a return to
northeasterly by the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

515
FXUS63 KGID 140540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather is a primary hazard to focus on this afternoon,
  and potentially tomorrow in north central Kansas. Thursday
  will also be warm, dry, and windy, and could be another day
  for fire concerns.

- There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening
  (20-50% with best chances far southeast and far northwest),
  but it currently looks more likely that most of the area
  remains dry, and any precipitation will likely be less than a
  tenth of an inch.

- The next strong storm system arrives late Friday into early
  Saturday. Expect thunderstorms on the leading edge of this
  storm with snow on the back side of the storm. The current
  most likely storm track suggests the best chance for
  thunderstorms is east of HWY 281, and the greatest chance for
  rain changing to snow is north of the Platte River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found
in the Fire section below.

Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will
gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this
afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this
afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end
potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound
moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely
should stay precipitation free, but there`s about a 10% chance
for development in far northern counties of the forecast area
around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north.

As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves
off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south
into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure
develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the
vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on
Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on
the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm
and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to
develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap
in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a
bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for
increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to
provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but
would require significant moisture transport and pooling through
a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now,
forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm
development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance
with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a
short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there
is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop
and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that
precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few
wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how
quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system
does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north
central KS.

After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good
model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system
tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday.
This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic
spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the
northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe
storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the
storm system, and current indications suggest a higher
likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so
we`ll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull
better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also
be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the
greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast
area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong
winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it
could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into
Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of
slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at
least into the first couple days of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Have VFR conditions in for this TAF period...though there is
some uncertainty with that as we approach sunrise on into at
least the first half of the day, as models show the potential
for some lower level clouds to spread into the area. Most
guidance keeps things VFR, but will have to monitor trends
closely. Light/variable winds continue for a few more hours
tonight, expected to turn more northeasterly before sunrise.
Mid-morning on through mid-afternoon, there will be the
potential for gusts around 25 MPH. Mid-late afternoon, there is
some uncertainty and lower confidence in the winds for a few
hours, as a frontal boundary tries working its way back north.
Have a period of light/variable winds...there is some question
with just how far north the front gets, and whether it
complicates winds briefly before the next cold front pushes
south through the area, switching winds back to the northeast.
For the final few hours of this period, there will be the
potential for isolated to scattered precipitation to develop, so
did insert a PROB30 mention.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Today:
Low pressure moving from near Kearney to near Columbus this
afternoon will pull a narrow sector of warm and very dry air
across the forecast area today. As temperatures warm, wind
speeds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph, and
some potential for a few gusts to 30 mph. Also expect the wind
direction to gradually become more westerly as the afternoon
progresses...no sharp wind shifts are expected but more of a
gradual change. Near sunset, the wind gusts should come to an
end with RH slowly recovering into the evening. Overnight, winds
will turn out of the northeast in most Nebraska counties as a
front slowly drifts southward, but should remain mainly out of
the south in Kansas counties. RH will also increase with RH
above 80% north of the front overnight into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday:
For much of the day on Tuesday, a front will extend from near
Norton to near Hebron, give or take 30 miles or so. North of
that front, winds will be out of the northeast and gusty at
times, with RH starting the day around 90% and reaching an
afternoon minimum around 40%. South of the front, the airmass
will be much drier with southwest or westerly winds. MinRH in
these areas will be in the 12-16% range, and while winds may
gust 20-25 mph, there is some uncertainty in just how strong the
winds will be, and whether or not they will reach Red Flag
criteria. At this time, with less confidence in the afternoon
wind speeds, will maintain the fire weather watch for KS
counties as it stands, with intent to make a warn/no-warn
decision late this evening or early Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:
Thursday looks like the best chance for warm, dry, and windy
conditions possibly leading to another Red Flag setup. Friday
could also feature a dryline scenario with very low afternoon RH
in parts of the area, especially southwest, and followed by a
cold frontal passage and a wind shift out of the northwest. The
best chance for meaningful precipitation appears to arrive late
Friday, although far from a guarantee of widespread wetting
rain.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion