Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

349
FXUS63 KOAX 161032
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
532 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms
  across southeast Nebraska early Tuesday morning and across far
  eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early Wednesday morning.

- Wednesday afternoon is expected to be hot, dry, and windy with
  very high fire danger forecast across portions of northeast
  Nebraska.

- A more active weather pattern arrives late this week into this
  weekend. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms exist
  through this time period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A weak disturbance is pivoting across the northern Plains into
the Great Lakes region tonight. A weak front accompanies this
feature. This front will do little to temperatures, but will
bring a low (10-30%) chance of showers and a few rumbles of
thunder to portions of southeast Nebraska early Tuesday
morning. Temperatures start in the 50s to near 60 as surface
high pressure fills in behind the front during this time.
Another beautiful afternoon is expected with temperatures
warming into the low 80s under mostly sunny skies with light
winds. This weather will be hard to beat for mid-June.

A more substantial weather system is set to dive across the
Plains heading into Wednesday. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms may skirt far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the system rapidly
approaches. This activity will be working with limited moisture
and instability, so little impact is expected. With the
progression of this system continuing to be faster in the latest
model guidance, the afternoon thunderstorm threat has become
more and more unlikely. As a result, a quicker frontal passage
will result in a hot, dry, and windy afternoon. Wind gusts
across a large portion of the area may reach as high as 35-45
mph by afternoon as temperatures push well into the 80s and
relative humidity falls to around 25%. For much of the area this
isn`t a problem with green vegetation in place, but lingering
dry fuels over portions of northeast Nebraska may support very
high fire danger. The wind and fire threat remains on the
marginal side, but wind advisories or fire weather products may
be required.

Surface high pressure fills in behind Wednesday`s system for
Thursday. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures are anticipated
for the afternoon. Most locations see highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s for another beautiful day. Beyond Thursday, a transition
to a more active weather pattern remains on track. As the more
progressive weather pattern takes shape, several disturbances
are likely to traverse the region late this week through the
weekend. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms are
forecast through this period. While peak severe weather season
is coming to an end, severe weather potential may still be
possible and this will need to be monitored as this time period
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds will shift to the west early this afternoon,
increasing to around 5-10kts. Heading into this evening, winds
become southerly around 15-20kts. LLWS is expected to develop at
KOFK by 04Z, and KOMA/KLNK terminals by 05-06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

688
FXUS63 KGID 161118
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A boundary has resulted in showers and storms developing
  across portions of north central Kansas. Severe storms are not
  expected.

- Increased rain and storm chances this weekend, especially
  Saturday night. Severe storms may develop.

- Warming temperatures through Wednesday then a cold front will
  bring cooler temperatures (70s and 80s) for Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently developing along a boundary
in north central and central Kansas and moving southward. Most of
this activity is to the south of the forecast area but some isolated
showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are developing across parts of
north central Kansas. Any precipitation amounts are expected to be
less than a quarter of an inch. No severe weather is expected.
Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as winds
become southerly this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to
continue to warm up on Wednesday despite a cold front beginning to
move into the area. High temperatures for Wednesday may need to be
lowered a bit if the front arrives any earlier. The cooler
temperatures will be felt on Thursday as a surface high moves over
the area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase this weekend (up to 80%-85% chance Saturday night)
with a passing shortwave. Severe storms may develop, although there
is still some uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the
great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the
area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during
the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to
impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even
moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to
Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not
expected to be strong or severe.

As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the
pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week.
The next front will move through the area Wednesday.
Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in
the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models
currently show the front traversing the area during the day,
which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly
downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up
where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the
southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the
front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the
front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across
the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas,
especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near
critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the
fuels and the weather conditions.

After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a
bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week.

The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an
upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday
into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is
currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could
be strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, with
the possibility of some upper level clouds this
afternoon/evening. Surface winds will become more southerly and
increase in magnitude throughout the forecast period, gusting up
to 30 kts around 11Z as a low pressure center emerges into the
Plains. Atop these strong southerly surface winds will be a
strong SW low-level jet creating low-level wind shear in the
lowest 1500ft.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion