Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

479
FXUS63 KOAX 301722
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1222 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly chances for showers and storms through the weekend
  into early next week, with warm and humid conditions.

- A summer-like pattern setting up next week will keep warm,
  humid weather in place with additional daily chances for
  showers and storms through the week.

- Potential for hotter weather just beyond the forecast period
  starting next weekend going into following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A MCV is moving north over eastern Nebraska this evening,
generating the ongoing showers and occasionally flaring up new
convection. Weak shear keep these storms short-lived and weak.
This will continue its trek northward, not clearing our area
until closer to 5AM. Another weak shortwave has been producing
robust storms along a line across western and central Kansas
this evening. these are mostly being forced by the nose of the
low-level jet over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. We`ll be
watching these storms as the boundary progresses northeastward
toward our area. CAM guidance wants to pull these storms
eastward at the last minute as it approaches the Nebraska state
line, likely due to weakening of the low-level jet later in the
night. This should keep any stronger storms from getting into
our area, or if they do, should rapidly weaken. We will likely
see another band of storms develop as the shortwave pivots
northeast across our area, though, mostly exiting the area by 10
AM.

Saturday is looking like another muggy, warm day with air as
thick as pea soup. Though temperatures will peak in the low 80s,
dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s are going to make you sweat.
With all the moisture around, we`ll see a few isolated showers
pop up Saturday afternoon/evening. Nothing severe expected. What
we`re watching more closely is a more substantial trough that
will lift north across our area Saturday night into early Sunday
potentially bringing a few strong to severe storms into
southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa around midnight
Saturday night into early Sunday. Primary threats would be wind
and hail, as storms will be elevated in nature.

Another system to watch for Saturday night into early Sunday is
a convective line forecast to develop over western Nebraska and
South Dakota Saturday evening and push east toward our area
overnight. Guidance has it lifting northeast following the
instability gradient into eastern South Dakota, but there is
some potential for storms in northeast Nebraska as well from
this MCS, mainly closer to 5-7 AM Sunday morning.

As the trough over the northern Rockies continues to lift north
into the Dakotas on Sunday, a surface low develops over South
Dakota, pulling drier air east into our area from the
Southwest. The pooling of moisture along and ahead of this
boundary will lead to additional shower and storm development
Sunday afternoon, clearing the area after midnight as the dry
line and eventually a weak cold front move in overnight.

Monday should be dry through at least the daytime hours as ridging
starts to build over the Central CONUS and high pressure sinks
down over the region. With the surface high expanding eastward,
we potentially could see a moisture stream sneak back north into
our area Monday night on the western flank of the anticyclonic
circulation. This could mean the development of an MCS over
western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening, weakening as
it continues east into our area overnight.

As we go into midweek next week, we continue to see strong
ridging build up just east of our area, leading to a fairly good
overnight MCS pattern. Moisture streaming up the Central Plains
from the Gulf will generate afternoon storms again over western
Nebraska on Tuesday, developing into an MCS and pushing east
into our area overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday. An
upper-level trough nudges the ridge further east Wednesday and
Thursday, pushing the moisture stream farther east, bringing
afternoon storm potential into our area Wednesday-Friday,
developing into and MCS that pushes east into Iowa overnight.

A more substantial blocking ridge is forecast to build up next
weekend, likely bringing hot summer conditions starting a couple
weeks early. CPC is on board with this forecast, predicting a
60-70 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the 8-14
Day Temperature Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to take over across the region
through the afternoon. An isolated MVFR cloud deck over LNK is
dissipating and should clear shortly. Otherwise, a breezy
southeast wind is expected into this evening across the area. A
band of thunderstorms is forecast to move in from the southwest
late this evening. Current timing has storms arriving at LNK
around 3Z, OFK around 4Z, and OMA around 5Z. At least MVFR
visibility and thunder is anticipated with the bulk of this
activity. A short reduction to IFR visibility is likely with the
leading edge of thunderstorms. TEMPO groups may be required to
account for this as confidence on timing increases. Any
thunderstorms are expected to move out of TAF sites within a few
hours. VFR conditions are anticipated to briefly return behind
these thunderstorms, but an MVFR cloud deck is forecast to
develop Sunday morning across the area. Winds remain
southeasterly through the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

612
FXUS63 KGID 301753
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible across the area during the
  late afternoon-late evening hours though uncertainty remains
  on how widespread storms will be. If storms do form, they
  could be severe capable of producing golf ball sized hail,
  60mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

- Highs today in the 80s with southeast winds gusting 25-35mph.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances continue each day with highs
  generally in the 80s. A few storms on Sunday could be strong-
  severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broken band of showers and storms will continue to lift northeast
across the area this morning. Behind this band showers/storms are
more scattered/isolated but are likewise gradually moving northeast.
Showers/storm will end from the southwest to the northeast this
morning, with any lingering shower/storm exiting the area by the mid-
late morning hours.

Clearing skies will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s under
the influence of upper level ridging. Breezy southeast winds are
expected during the afternoon gusting 25-35mph. The southeasterly
winds bring steady moisture advection over the area, keeping
dewpoints in the 60s despite daytime mixing. This warm and humid
airmass combined with steep mid-level lapse rates (8 C/Km) will
result in CAPE values of 2000-3000+ J/Kg this afternoon. A dryline
sharpens this afternoon, stretching from western Nebraska to central
Kansas. 00z model guidance favors two distinct areas of thunderstorm
development along the dryline. The first area of development will
occur in the panhandle of Nebraska this afternoon with these storms
moving east-northeast across northern Nebraska during the evening-
early overnight hours. The second area of development is across
central/southern Kansas. These storms would lift into
north/northeast Kansas during the evening hours. Inbetween these two
clusters, thunderstorm development is more uncertain as forcing is
weaker. Scenarios range from a line of scattered thunderstorms
impacting much of the area (00z Nam3k, RRFS) to the area remaining
mostly-completely dry (00z HRRR, WRF-NSSL). This spread in model
guidance brings a fair amount of uncertainty on today`s severe
weather potential. Regardless if storms do form in northwest
KS/southwest NE, CAPE would support these storms quickly becoming
severe. The biggest limiting factor on severe weather potential
looks to be modest shear of 25-30kts which may limit just how strong
storms are able to get. Still, the environment is supportive of
storms producing golf ball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and an
isolated tornado (tornado threat depends on storms remaining
discrete/isolated). This isolated to scattered band of storms will
move northeast across the area during the evening-early overnight
hours. While much of the area is outlined in the SPC day 1 slight
risk for severe thunderstorms, current thinking is that southeastern
portions of the area carry the highest chances to see a storm/severe
storm.

Warm weather continues on Sunday with highs in the 80s to low 90s.
Dry weather is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances return during the late
afternoon-evening hours as storms develop along the dryline in
central-eastern Nebraska. Similar to today/Saturday if/when storms
form, the environment would support these storms becoming strong-
severe given CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg and shear of 25-30kts.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track with above normal
temperatures continuing through the forecast period. Thunderstorms
are possible each day as weak disturbances move into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level disturbance passed mainly south of the local area
today. Scattered showers and a couple of isolated weak
thunderstorms were observed on its northern edge, but these are
mostly exiting the local area this afternoon. As this
disturbance exits to the east, expect a few breaks in cloud
cover through the remainder of the afternoon hours as the local
area will be inbetween disturbances...with these breaks
potentially allowing for a few additional showers or weak
thunderstorms through early evening.

Late tonight...anticipate the next upper level wave to cross the
local area from the southwest. Models have been keying in on
this disturbance all day and gradually increasing their areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late tonight...primarily
after midnight. While there is ample instability to work with as
the disturbance crosses the local area, shear is fairly weak and
widespread strong/severe storms are not expected. That said, a
few pulsy stronger storms will be possible late tonight, with
the general focus for the best coverage anticipated across
areas primarily across our Nebraska coverage area. While this
disturbance should be exiting the local area around daybreak,
some models are trying to hang on to some scattered convection
through the mid-morning hours, so gradually tapered off pops
from west to east through around 18Z.

The fairly active weather pattern of late will then continue
Saturday night as the next upper level disturbance reaches the
local area. Given strong instability and a weak CAP, little
forcing will be needed to get some activity going by early
evening, although once again, shear is weak. Given the very
strong instability, could see some large hail with the
strongest storms, and kept the wording for ping pong potential
along with wind gusts up to 60 mph in the HWO.

Thereafter...a messy west southwesterly flow pattern aloft is
forecast to continue across the plains through the end of next
week with periodic upper level disturbances maintaining an
unsettled weather pattern across the local area along with
modestly above normal temperatures in the 80s (normal high
temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s for late May/early
June).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions should prevail at both terminals into the early
evening hours before a line of SHRAs/TSRAs work their way
towards the area around 31/01-31/03Z. At least MVFR VSBYs/CIGS
will be possible with this line of storms, some of which could
have very strong winds gusts and hail with them as well. Could
see some re-development of storms on the backside of this line
after midnight, and kept prob30 groups going through 31/07-31/09
to account for this. MVFR CIGS will then likely linger as the
line of storms tracks away from the area into the late morning
hours Sunday, with clearing skies likely near the tail end of
the TAF period. Winds this afternoon will be gusty (to near 30
KTS) out of the southeast, diminishing to 10 KTS or less this
evening - outside any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion