Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

243
FXUS63 KOAX 211631
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1031 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain lingering through this afternoon, mainly near and south
  of Interstate 80. Highest totals of 0.25-0.50" near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend with increasing
  rain chances (60-80%) Monday.

- Temperatures trending cooler next week with highs in the 30s
  forecast for Thanksgiving.

- Keep an eye on the forecast for Thanksgiving into next
  weekend, as there are some hints of snowfall, but confidence
  in exact timing and location is very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Early morning analysis showed a surface low spinning along the
KS/OK border with an associated precip shield extending just
north of the NE/KS border. Latest guidance shows mid-level
frontogenesis lingering across southeast NE and southwest IA
through this afternoon with continued rain in the area. That
said, northerly to northeasterly low level flow will continue to
usher in dry air, helping to keep the rain rather light and
largely confined to areas near and south of Interstate 80.
Otherwise, low clouds/fog should slowly but surely push
south/dissipate through the afternoon with perhaps a few peeks
of sunshine sneaking into northeast NE by mid to late afternoon.
Expect high temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 40s. Rain
will come to an end this evening as the surface low pushes into
the Ohio River valley, with totals of a few hundredths near I-
80 to 0.25-0.50" near the NE/KS border.

For Saturday, southerly low level flow returns with a surface
low along the US/Canadian border and surface high pressure to
our south. This will allow temperatures to climb back into the
upper 50s to lower 60s. By late Saturday afternoon, the low to
our north will drag a cold front into the area, with
northwesterly winds setting up in northeast NE for the evening.
However, these will be short lived, with little to no impact on
temperature, as southerly flow picks right back up on Sunday
while an upper level ridge axis passes through, allowing
temperatures once again to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. So
overall, a pretty nice weekend for late November.

Meanwhile, a cutoff low currently just off the coast of CA will
push into the Desert Southwest late Saturday into early Sunday
and east of the Rockies by Sunday evening. Associated rainfall
will start to move into the forecast area sometime into late
Sunday evening into early Monday. Ensembles generally favor
sometime after midnight, when 60-80% chances push into areas
southwest of Lincoln and then overspread the remainder of the
area through the rest of the morning. This rain could linger
into Monday evening, though totals look pretty light, with model
consensus showing only about a 10-20% chance of a half inch.

By Tuesday morning, another shortwave trough/cutoff low looks
to slide through the Dakotas with a few hints at some wrap-
around moisture/precip edging into northeast NE (10-15% chance).
This would likely fall as very light snow if we do get
anything, but a vast majority of guidance keeps precip to our
north. More notable with this system is an associated surface
cold front that pushes through and turns highs in the 40s and
50s on Monday and Tuesday into 30s to lower 40s Wednesday
through the remainder of the week. Otherwise, there`s quite a
bit of model spread regarding precipitation chances for
Thanksgiving into the weekend. The general idea is that the
surface front could still be hanging out somewhere in/near the
area while some weak shortwave energy slides through and gives
us a band of snow. Again, still lots of spread in timing,
strength, and moisture availability, with plenty of guidance
keeping us dry. That said, there are enough ensemble members
with at least some snow that this time period bears watching,
especially given the increased travel. For now, giving it a
10-20% chance of accumulating snow sometime Thursday-Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1026 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

MVFR with patchy areas of IFR ceilings continue across southeast
Nebraska late this morning as rain showers persist. Impacts will
mostly be constrained to KLNK, where MVFR ceilings and rain
showers continue. While a few light rain showers may reach KOMA,
generally VFR ceilings will prevail at KOMA and KOFK. Showers
will clear from north to south through the after, with a return
to VFR conditions expected at KLNK by mid-afternoon. Lingering
clouds at 6000-9000 ft will gradually break up and improve
through the afternoon and evening. Northeasterly winds will
remain at 7-10 kts through the period, shifting to southwesterly
overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

249
FXUS63 KGID 211131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues through the mid-late afternoon hours for areas
  along and south of Interstate 80.

- Total rain accumulations will range from 1-1.5" across north
  central Kansas, to less than 0.10" north of I-80.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s.

- Light rain possible Sunday night-Monday, with cooler air
  arriving Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 340 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Stratiform rain is gradually moving north over the area this
morning, with the northern edge currently located along and south of
Highway 6. Around sunrise, rain is expected to reach Interstate 80,
with little additional northward movement expected during the day.
Rain will persist throughout most of the daytime hours,for southern
portions of the area, with more scattered/sporadic rain along and
north of I-80. Rain comes to an end from north to south this
afternoon, with the forecast area expected to be rain free by the
late evening hours. Rain accumulations of 0.5-1" have already
fallen across north central Kansas. Additional accumulations of
0.5-1" are possible for areas along and south of Highway 136.
There will be a steady drop in rainfall accumulations across
south central Nebraska, with 0.10" or less expected along and
north of I-80. Patchy fog is possible throughout the day, but
widespread dense fog is not expected.

Skies clear tonight, becoming mostly clear by sunrise. Lows tonight
will be in the low to mid 30s. A pleasant weekend is in store for
the area. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 60s with southwest
winds of 5-15mph. Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs on Sunday will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s. The next chance for rain returns to the
area Sunday evening-night as the shortwave trough moves into the
Plains. Rain with this system looks to be fairly light around 0.10"
or less. Much cooler air moves into the area behind a cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where
persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures
down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the
extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially
obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest,
the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding,
which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once
the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus
to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some
patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night.
Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some
dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our
Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon
HWO.

For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover
spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level
low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift
northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading
precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of
this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were
advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get
some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus
remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards
I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with
precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the
Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If
this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant
rainfall in almost a month across much of the area!

In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for
Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the
lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived,
however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly
sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back
above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend.

Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out
of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the
area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light
rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything,
this system has continued to track just a bit further north,
meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the
most favored areas will be across our south and east.

After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall
pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a
northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting
up across the plains for potentially an extended period of
time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble
members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early
as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR stratus will clear around 14-15z, though some brief IFR
stratus may return during periods of rain late this morning.
Additionally, rain may result in periods of MVFR visibility.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected during the late morning
hours through the end of the TAF period with a mix of mid and
high level clouds. Northeast winds around 10-15kts continue
this morning, becoming light and variable during the evening
hours, becoming southwesterly early Saturday morning as mid-high
level clouds clear.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion