68°F
Updated:
7/22/2026
1:24:17pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
091 FXUS63 KOAX 221721 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s. - The heaviest rainfall is expected overnight tonight and Thursday night, with totals approaching 1 to 2 inches in southeast Nebraska. - Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show a mid- level high centered near the Red River, with the region positioned along the northern periphery of the associated ridge. Meanwhile, an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS has brought northwesterly flow aloft and ushered CAA into the area. This, combined with widespread cloud cover, has kept afternoon temperatures to the 70s. A shortwave disturbance moving across the region has supported low- level moisture transport and weak WAA across central and eastern Nebraska, resulting in scattered showers and PoPs of 30-50%. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, particularly across southeast Nebraska, where weak but sufficient instability of 300-400 J/kg MUCAPE is present. Shower coverage will gradually decrease this evening, with most locations receiving a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation and localized pockets peaking around 0.25". Showers are expected to redevelop overnight as another shortwave disturbance emerges from the Rockies and increases PoPs to 50-80%. A band of moderate rainfall should develop from central into southeast Nebraska near the nose of a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. Sufficient instability will remain across southeast Nebraska for a few embedded thunderstorms. Some training of showers and storms will be possible in this area, with an environment supportive of efficient rainfall. PWAT values will approaching 2 inches (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology), while warm-cloud depths increase to around 4 to 4.5 km. Rainfall totals across the southern portion of the forecast area could reach 1 to 1.5 inches. Hydrologic concerns will need to be monitored, and WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. However, recent dry conditions and ongoing crop water usage should make flash-flood guidance difficult to exceed. Rainfall amounts will decrease farther north, where showers should remain lighter and more scattered through the day. Persistent cloud cover will again hold highs in the 70s on Thursday. Showers will diminish Thursday afternoon before increasing again Thursday evening and overnight as another shortwave disturbance crosses the region. A renewed nocturnal low-level jet will support widespread shower development, with POps of 60-90%. Efficient rainfall ingredients will be in place, leading to localized bands of 0.75 to 1.25 inches depending on where the heaviest showers develop. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease Friday morning and afternoon, with skies beginning to clear from west to east. High temperatures should recover into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Saturday and Beyond... Mid- to upper-level riding will amplify and expand northward into the region this weekend, resulting in a warming trend. Temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to rise into the 25 to 30 degree C range and should mix efficiently to the surface both days. Highs Saturday will climb into the 90s, with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across portions of east-central Nebraska. Low-level moisture transport and evapotranspiration will push dewpoints into the 70s, resulting in muggy conditions and heat index values near 100 degrees across much of the area. Temperatures will increase further Sunday, with widespread highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and peak heat index values of 104 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory may eventually be needed as forecast confidence increase. Shortwave disturbances are expected to round the ridge early next week, gradually dampening it and allowing temperatures to ease. Highs should remain in the mid to upper 90s Monday before falling into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday. Long-range guidance remains inconsistent regards the tracks of these disturbances, with some solutions keeping them farther north and other bringing them through the local area. This uncertainty supports lower confidence in forecasted highs and periodic precipitation chances through the work week, with PoPs generally ranging from 15- 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conditions are favored through the period, with scattered showers continuing around all terminals late this morning. An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out early this afternoon, especially at KLNK (20% chance). Showers will gradually decrease in coverage into the afternoon, though a broken to overcast cloud deck around FL070-100 will stick around through much of the period. Winds will remain calm and out of the north, gradually shifting clockwise to southerly overnight. Showers will redevelop overnight, though the highest chances will remain south of the terminals. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
411 FXUS63 KGID 221700 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Three rounds of precipitation: This morning through this afternoon, Overnight tonight through Thursday morning & Overnight Thursday through Friday morning; will bring up to 0.25-1.5+" of precipitation to the area. The greatest amounts should be concentrated towards areas near, north and east of the Tri-Cities. - Most of the precipitation should fall across the overnight Wednesday and overnight Thursday time periods, coming mainly from scattered showers with a few embedded weak (non-severe) thunderstorms. - As for the precipitation chances this morning to afternoon (mainly through 6PM), most of the scattered showers and storms will be concentrated north of I-80. - High temperatures will remain in the 70s to low 90s through Friday, with a warmup back to the mid 90s to low 100s Saturday through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Across the next three days, three distinct rounds of precipitation (1. Wednesday morning to afternoon, 2. Wednesday night to Thursday morning & 3. Thursday night to Friday morning), will come for the area. It is important to note that most of the precipitation will come form scattered showers, though a few (non-severe) storms may be mixed within. As the forecast stands, the "mostly likely" precipitation amounts will generally range between 0.25" to 0.75" for locations south and west of the Tri-Cities with amounts between 0.5" to 1.5" (the bulk of the precipitation amounts) concentrated across areas near, north and east of the Tri-Cities. Though Friday, locations south and west of the Tri-Cities will only have a 20-40% chance to receive at least 1" of rainfall, with the highest probabilities (70-80% chances) reserved for locations east of HWY- 281. Though not likely widespread, the potential for at least 2+" of precipitation (25-45% chances) will be reserved for a few isolated far northern and eastern portions of the area. It is important to note that the probabilities as well as most likely precipitation ranges will continue to change as the event unfolds. This wetter period will come as broad troughing over the eastern U.S. becomes paired with broad ridging across much of the western U.S., keeping the Central Plains underneath a northwest flow regime. A few embedded shortwave disturbances within this flow, providing pockets of generalized assent, will help to kick up scattered shower/storms across much of the area (eastern Wyoming/Colorado to central Nebraska/Kansas region), with storm motions generally moving towards the east to southeast. The 1st Round: This Morning to Afternoon Scattered showers and a few storms, which have developed across much of the Western Nebraska / Sandhills region early this morning, will soon be in and around mainly central Nebraska later this morning and this afternoon. The overall coverage of these showers/storms will be likely the most limited compared to the other two rounds later on Thursday and Friday. Most of north central Kansas (only 10-20% chance of precipitation) and far southern Nebraska locations (20-50% chance of precipitation south of HWY-6) will remain dry today (less than 0.1"). The better potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms will fall across areas north of I- 80 (up to 0.1-0.3" of precip). Though a few lingering showers could linger around in the evening, the bulk of the activity should take place before 6PM. The 2nd Round: Overnight Tonight through Thursday Morning A lull in precipitation is likely to last through much of the evening and early nighttime hours with another (likely more widespread) cluster of showers moving across the area. This wave of activity is expected to be more widespread as most short-range guidance models plasters virtually all of central Nebraska and north central Kansas within the shower coverage zone. Though measurable precipitation (>0.01") will likely cover the full area, the bulk of the precipitation amounts (up to 0.25-0.5+") and the greatest shower resonance times, should be more concentrated towards far northern and eastern portions of the area. The 3rd Round: Overnight Thursday into Friday Morning Though much of the daytime Thursday will be dry, a third round of scattered showers will be expected to pass through the area once more overnight Thursday into Friday morning. A little more model uncertainty regarding the total coverage and how long lasting these showers will linger, brings more nuance to the amount forecast for this period. Besides the chances for precipitation through Friday, not surprisingly, mostly cloudy to occasionally overcast skies will be expected to dominate the period. These clouds will help tamper highs down to as low as the 70s to low 90s through Friday. The "coolest" temperatures should naturally fall across the northeast half of the area where longer cloud residence times and more meaningful precipitation potential will be expected. Steady 10-15 MPH winds with occasional gusts as high as 25-30 MPH will be possible this afternoon as well as Thursday afternoon with wind directions out of the east to southeast at times. Winds on Friday, though generally still out of an east-sourtheast, may be a touch lighter in terms of speeds (gusts less than 20MPH). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Currently through this evening... As expected, been a more pleasant afternoon across the region today. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing a well amplified pattern across the CONUS, with continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...sitting between ridging extending from the Srn Plains northwestward into the Pac NW and troughing running from the Hudson Bay area southward toward the SE Coast. At the surface, the cold front which pushed south through the area Mon-Mon night lies generally along the KS/OK border...bringing mid-afternoon temperatures today in the mid 80s-near 90, vs the highs around 100 we had on Monday. In addition to the cooler temps, dewpoints are roughly 10 degrees lower...currently sitting in the mid 50s to low 60s for most. Had a narrow swath of isolated showers and storms gradually work their way south across portions of south central NE last night into this morning. This activity gradually waned with time...with this afternoon being dry. Expecting little change as we get into the evening hours...dry conditions continue, with sfc high pressure sliding off to our east, bringing more of an easterly component to the overall light winds. Late tonight through Thursday night... This mid-week period continues to be the most active of this entire 7-day forecast period, with periodic upper levels disturbances bringing the potential for much-welcome rainfall. As nice as it would be to say this will be a period of non-stop, gentle rain...this will be coming in waves, with potentially heavy rates at times. Expecting little change overall in the upper level northwesterly flow tonight into Wednesday...with the first of these shortwave upper level disturbances looking to start working its way in mainly after midnight. Models showing this wave not being an overly strong one...with some runs showing QPF potentially more scattered in nature, though most focus the better chances roughly across the NNErn half of the forecast area. If anything models have trended back on how long through the day activity lasts...showing the brunt potentially over around midday or so, leaving little else but some lingering isolated precip around the rest of the afternoon. After that lull...models showing the potential for another couple of shortwave disturbances to push through the region. The timing is not too unlike the first...mainly affecting the evening/overnight-early morning hours Wed night-Thu AM and Thu night-Fri AM, with the potential for a relative lull during a chunk of the daytime hours. Models showing that these disturbances are stronger, having better potential to dig a bit further south into the ridging, allowing it to track more over the heart of the area vs riding around the NErn edge. Expecting some thunderstorms embedded in this mid-week activity...and while deeper layer isn`t bad, models are in pretty good agreement showing that instability is lacking...keeping the overall threat for severe weather during this period on the lower side. With more southerly flow returning with time, expecting better moisture to gradually return, esp. for those Wed night-early Fri AM chances...bringing increasing PWAT values and potential for heavier rainfall rates. Outside of the GFS/GEFS, most other models showing good potential for a decent swath of at least 0.5" of rain by the time it`s all said and done...mainly across the central-NErn portions of the forecast area. ECMWF ensembles even continue to have fairly high probabilities of 1" or more (70+ percent)...again mostly driven by that Wed night-Fri AM period. Will see how upcoming model runs trend with the finer details. Friday and on... For the end of the week on through the upcoming weekend and start of the new week...models continue to show that upper level ridging reamplifying (to varying degrees depending on the model), drying the period back out. Temperatures also climb back up...after highs Wed- Thu in the 70s-80s, the heat returns by this weekend-Mon with highs back well into the 90s-near 100...including heat index values near 105. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Showers have lifted north of GRI/EAR and dry/VFR conditions are expected through evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop early Thursday morning, and a period of MVFR to borderline IFR conditions is expected as these depart after sunrise Thursday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Mangels
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