Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

376
FXUS63 KOAX 050459
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms may move into eastern Nebraska tonight, with
  lightning and an isolated wind gust possible.

- Patchy fog may develop overnight, especially in low-lying or
  sheltered areas. Sunday will be mostly clear, with an isolated
  thunderstorm or two possible.

- Near-average July temperatures continue this week, with
  periodic thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Tonight through Monday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis tonight depict an area
of mid-level high pressure over the Desert Southwest, with generally
zonal flow aloft over our region north of this feature. A series of
shortwave disturbances continue to round the ridge, with the most
locally impactful wave pushing from the Front Range into west-
central Nebraska tonight. This feature, along with an associated
surface trough, has led to storm development to our west, with
activity slowly pushing eastward.

Plenty of instability remains in place this evening, though shear
remains a limiting factor (bulk shear near 20 kts). With this in
mind, storms are not expected to maintain their intensity
particularly well as they move into the area. The primary concerns
will be lightning and perhaps an isolated wind gust with any
decaying storms that push into eastern Nebraska tonight. Plenty
of low-level moisture and calming winds overnight will support
the potential for patchy fog development, especially in low-
lying and wind-protected areas.

Sunday is shaping up to be a mostly clear day, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
may develop along a transient surface low and associated cold
front pushing southward across the mid-MO Valley. Pockets of
small hail or gusty winds will remain possible with any stronger
storms, given ample instability but limited shear (~20 kts bulk
shear). A funnel cloud sighting also cannot be ruled out Sunday
afternoon, especially near the surface low across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, where some surface vorticity and
low-level instability overlap.

Monday looks warm and mostly clear as broad mid-level ridging
overspreads the area. High temperatures are expected to peak in the
upper 80s to lower 90s under generally calm conditions.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The remainder of the forecast period will generally be characterized
by zonal flow aloft, with a series of shortwave disturbances sliding
through the region. This will support near-average July temperatures
along with periodic rain and thunderstorm chances. Highs through the
rest of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The first shortwave disturbance is expected to arrive late Tuesday
into Wednesday, bringing PoPs of 35-70%. A few strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out, as sufficient instability and shear may
be in place. GEFS and EPS-EPS-AIFS based machine learning guidance
indicate a 5-15% probability for severe weather, mainly focused on
Wednesday. Another shortwave disturbance is forecast to move through
late Thursday into Friday, bringing another round of 20-35% Pops.
Confidence in the finer details remains limited at this range and
will become clearer as these features approach.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Calm winds should allow for the development of patchy fog. Low-
lying areas will be most susceptible. Already visibility has
been reduced to IFR conditions at LNK and OMA at times as
firework smoke has mixed in. Have chose to keep 3 mile
visibility going overnight at both sites through sunrise.
Confidence in this solution is low, but with little to no wind,
it will be difficult to scour the smoke/fog out where it`s
developed.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

786
FXUS63 KGID 050821
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
321 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected until at least Tuesday evening.

- Wednesday is the next "good chance" (30-60%) for
  rain/thunderstorms.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue through
  this week.

- There is increasing potential for extreme heat to return to
  the region next week (July 12-18).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Skies continue to clear today, and any stray showers/t-storms
should remain to our east, closer to the departing shortwave. Dry
conditions are expected to continue for the next few days as
upper level ridging builds over the west/central CONUS.

Temperatures return to the 90s for most areas for
Monday/Tuesday. This is slightly above normal, but not
"excessive" by any means.

Low chances for t-storms return to the area Tuesday night, but
areas to our north and west are more favored. Better chances
arrive with a cold front and shortwave Wednesday into Thursday.

Some low t-storm chances linger on Friday, but ensembles are
pretty stingy on any additional rain through next weekend and
into the following week. Global ensembles also continue to show
potential for a round of near-record heat next week. Most
notably, the 00Z ECMWF and EPS highlight potential for several
consecutive days with temperatures over 100 degrees. Obviously,
there is quite a bit of uncertainty given that this is 8-14 days
out, but it is something to keep in the back of your mind if you
have outdoor activities planned in this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This evening and Tonight:
While this morning`s model guidance was a bit more robust, the
trend into the afternoon on the high-res hourly runs have
trended less active and more dry. This seems to coincide with
the assessment of the meso environment. The atmosphere across
much of central and south central Nebraska is impacted by this
morning`s lingering activity shower/thunderstorm activity. This
has created a cooler, more stable atmosphere with less shear.
Model simulations have trended to develop thunderstorms north of
the boundaries in the Sandhills, and then quickly dissipate them
as they move southeast. While this isn`t an all clear, the trend
is in the right direction for any evening 4th celebrations.
There could be some nuisance type activity primarily north of
I-80 this evening. Feel this is a 20-40% chance, that is lower
than I felt this morning when guidance was showing more robust
and organized convection.

Dry and seasonal for Sunday and the early part of the work week.
Upper level ridging builds in from the southwest. High temperatures
will be near 90 degrees.

By midweek, a couple of disturbances will move eastward,
breaking down the ridge and making the upper level flow more
zonal. This will bring more chances for off and on precipitation
through next Saturday. Beyond Saturday, more amplified upper
ridging builds into the intermountain west which will keep our
area under northwesterly flow and keep the potential for an
active period. Temperatures for the second half of the work week
are similar, with highs near 90, or slightly less in the upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is a slight chance of some light fog for KGRI around or
just before 12z; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds
will mainly be light and variable until around 21z when they
will become southeasterly between 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion