60°F
Updated:
6/14/2026
00:29:43am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
978 FXUS63 KOAX 140450 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday. - Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. - Thursday appears dry with our next weather system arriving sometime next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 After an active stretch of weather, a welcomed respite has arrived. A cold front has pushed through the region late this evening as an amplifying trough continues to dig into the central and eastern CONUS. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air continues to filter in. By sunrise on Sunday, a jacket may be required as a cool north wind with temperatures in the 50s is expected. High pressure will settle into the region by Sunday afternoon, offering up temperatures in the 70s under mostly sunny skies. A similar forecast begins the work week as surface high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures start in the 50s once again, but afternoon highs increase into the lower 80s on Monday. Skies remain mostly sunny. The same will largely hold true for Tuesday. The one exception is a low chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm as a weak cold front sweeps across the region early Tuesday morning. Our next chance of rain is not set to arrive until Wednesday. A more prominent trough begins to dig towards the central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of this, the ridge will build slightly, pushing our temperatures into the lower 90s. As the trough moves overhead, another front is anticipated to push across the area. Along and ahead of the front has the best chance of thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon and evening hours across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. With the front pushing through, Thursday appears a little cooler and dry. The evolution of the pattern remains a bit uncertain by the end of the week into next weekend. That said, a weakening of the eastern CONUS trough, a building of the central CONUS ridge, and a digging western CONUS trough would lend to a warmer and potentially more active forecast pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the terminals. Expect northwest winds around 5-10kts overnight, increasing to 10-15kts by 15Z at KOFK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
857 FXUS63 KGID 140009 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 709 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 ...Key Messages and Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Now that any severe thunderstorm threat in our southern counties has all but ended for this evening, we enter at least a brief stretch of quiet weather (compared to lately!). There is essentially zero threat of any severe storms until AT LEAST Tues-Wed (and those severe chances are still plenty "iffy" and could easily focus slightly outside our forecast area altogether). - Most of next week will remain dry. Temperatures will start the week below normal, but 90s are expected to return by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 As of early afternoon, an outflow boundary from morning convection has stalled out over northern KS with the main cold front slowly pushing through south-central and eastern Nebraska. A few cells have already begun to develop north of Columbus, and additional development is expected later in the afternoon (by 3-5pm). If anything, this front has trended a bit slower and further north, which brings potential for storms to a larger portion of the area. Based on latest CAM guidance, roughly the southeastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area has at least SOME chance for t-storms, but the highest threat for severe weather will remain further southeast where instability is highest and convection will encounter less inhibition. Large hail and damaging wind are the main threats, as the low level wind profile is not favorable for tornadoes. Storms should depart the area to the southeast by 8-9pm this evening. Clearing skies in the post-frontal airmass will then allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s and 50s by Sunday morning. The daytime on Sunday remains cool, with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees in some places. Cloud cover will increase as an upper level perturbation moves through, and a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out. But most areas will remain completely dry. Westerly surface winds return for Monday, which will aid temperatures back into the upper 70s for most. The warming trend then continues on Tuesday with rising heights aloft. Temperatures peak on Wednesday ahead of a southeasterly-moving shortwave. Most areas should reach the 90s, and portions of KS could approach/exceed 100 degrees. This shortwave could bring a few showers/t-storms to the area on Wednesday, but this will be more favorable to our east. Thursday looks to be a bit cooler behind this system, with ensembles continuing to depict mostly dry conditions through the end of the week. Rain/tstorm chances then increase again as we head into Father`s Day weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the period, as surface high pressure ushers in seasonably-dry and stable air for at least a few days. That being said, there is a small (10%) chance of a rogue sprinkle/brief light shower late in the period on Sunday afternoon as ceiling perhaps as low as around 6K ft. AGL tries to develop. However, this probability is currently considered too low/too low of an impact for TAF inclusion. As for winds, direction will prevail northerly to northwesterly throughout. The strongest speeds will be right away these first few hours (gusts 20-25KT), with sustained speeds through most of the remainder of the period prevailing at-or-below 12KT (perhaps some 15-20KT gusts during the middle part of the day Sunday). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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