Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

881
FXUS63 KOAX 031721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system lifting out of northwest Kansas is still on
  track to bring showers and storms through 7 PM this evening,
  with the strongest of which being potentially severe (5-20%
  chance).

- As the system departs, areas of northeast Nebraska could see a
  few snowflakes mix in with snow through early Saturday, with
  no accumulations expected.

- Dry conditions set up Saturday evening through Monday morning.

- Another pattern shift brings additional better chances for
  precipitation to the region beginning Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a neutrally-tilting
trough continuing its push into the Central Plains and helping serve
as the catalyst storm potential today across southeast Nebraska into
much of Iowa. Surface observations show a primary surface low
situated over northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending east-
northeast from it across northeastern Missouri. Over the course of
the early afternoon, this surface low and an accompanying warm
sector will clip far southeast Nebraska and travel into southwest
Iowa. To the north of it, warm air advection powers light
precipitation and drizzle across much of eastern Nebraska into Iowa,
resulting in very light precipitation and visibilities as low as one
mile. Temperatures will remain cool and largely in the upper 30s to
low 40s for these areas, making for a dreary afternoon that misses
out on any rumbles of thunder.

Focusing on the severe threat to the south and east, short-term
model solutions all show southwest to northeast-oriented jet
streaks, with speeds that ramp up quickly from the surface to the
lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere before the reaching their peak. Low-
level curvature is quite favorable in hodographs, with the deep-
layer shear being largely in line with the boundaries/forcing for
ascent. Over the next two hours, areas just to the north of the
surface low will have the help of that feature in addition to the
warm air advection, helping kick start elevated parcels that could
result in some small to marginally severe hail during the early
afternoon hours, continuing north and to the east in stride with the
surface low. Closer the the surface low and in the warm sector, a
narrow window exists for surface-based storms to initiate in or move
through the forecast area. These storms could initiate either along
a prefrontal confluence boundary about one county to the east of the
synoptic cold front, or on the cold front itself. These will be the
storms to watch out for, and will be confined to areas southeast of
a line from Lewiston, NE to Nodaway, IA. All three conventional
severe hazards will be possible (hail, wind, and a tornado or two),
with the tornado chances being dependent on how uninterrupted a
storm can be in its process of intensifying.

With the warm sector quickly approaching, now through 7 PM is the
window for any strong to severe storms to occur. While some
convective activity is a near-certainty, there are a couple of
failure modes for storms trying to reach severe levels. The main
initiation point for storms in the CAMs favors the synoptic
cold/Pacific front, and those storms may not keep up with the
advancing front and shorten their lifespan. Another failure mode for
severe storm potential would be higher-end shear and mid-upper
dryness that could make for a hostile environment for what are
expected to be somewhat narrow updrafts. With all of that in mind,
the overall severe chances for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
is between 5-20%. Once 7 PM rolls around, the western edge of the
warm sector will have swept through, clearing out precipitation
aside from comma-head rain with a few snowflakes (that will melt)
across northeast Nebraska into the overnight hours.

Saturday and Beyond:

The remainder of the forecast sees that upper pattern transition the
trough to the east of the area, in favor of a split zonal flow
pattern through the entire upcoming work week. It will be gusty
tomorrow, with winds out of the northwest ramping up gusts to 35-40
mph before slowly decreasing in speed. The front half of the week
will be marked by largely dry weather, before a warmer day
Wednesday that will bring a shortwave trough and a transition
to wetter conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail into the evening hours as
patchy drizzle and light rain showers traverse eastern
Nebraska, primarily KOMA and KLNK. An uptick in thunderstorm
activity is expected across far eastern Nebraska into the
afternoon, with highest confidence in impacts at KOMA. A brief
thunderstorm may pass by KLNK in the 18-20Z timeframe.

Precipitation will gradually clear from west to east into the
early evening, along with a gradual increase in northerly winds.
Have opted to keep ceilings towards the lower end of guidance
this evening, with most locations improving only to MVFR
conditions. Brief returns to VFR conditions will be possible
this evening and overnight, though confidence is low in
widespread improvement to VFR conditions until Saturday
morning. Northwesterly wind gusts will increase to the 20-25 kt
range into Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

874
FXUS63 KGID 031932
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
232 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for western portions of the
  forecast area until 8 PM this evening.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible on Saturday for
  western portions of the area.

- Increased precipitation chances for next week with the highest
  chances (60% to 75%) Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An upper trough/low is over the Rocky Mountains and the Great
Plains. Upper lift has increased across Nebraska and Kansas
associated with the upper trough/low. This has resulted in showers,
drizzle and fog developing earlier today that has cleared out of the
forecast area. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas are out of the north with high temperatures
today ranging from the 40s in the north and east to the 50s and 60s
in the south and west. A surface trough/low is across western
Nebraska and western Kansas which has resulted in warmer
temperatures and clearing skies. Temperatures tonight are expected
to drop into the 20s and 30s behind a cold front.

Nebraska and Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough on
Saturday with gusty north to northwest winds. High temperatures will
mostly be in the 50s and 60s across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas.  Low temperatures Saturday night
will be fairly similar to those from the previous night with light,
westerly winds. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s
and 70s on Sunday with the area in between 2 surface troughs. A cold
front is expected by Monday with high temperatures possibly ranging
from the 40s to near 70. Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with
winds increasing out of the south, although there is quite a bit of
uncertainty with the high temperatures due to increased lift and
cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday as
winds increase out of the south to southwest. Cooler temperatures
are expected on Thursday due to a cold front but there is high
uncertainty in regards to the high temperatures due to uncertainties
in the timing and strength of the front. Precipitation chances
increase again next week with the highest chances Thursday night
(60% to 75% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to continue into the afternoon
hours with VFR expected by 21z. Another brief period around 06z
of MVFR ceilings is expected. Winds will generally range from
the northeast to northwest with winds increasing out of the
northwest around 15z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Humidity values are expected to drop this afternoon mainly west of
the Tri-Cities area as winds become more westerly. Minimum humidity
values of around 15 to 25 percent are expected across most of the
above mentioned area along with wind gusts of up to around 20 to 30
MPH. This will result in critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon so a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM for Dawson,
Gosper, Furnas, Harlan, Phillips, and Rooks Counties.

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible for western
portions of the area on Saturday with humidity down to around 20 to
25 percent and wind gusts up to 20 to 30 MPH. Humidity values will
be lower on Sunday but winds will not be as strong.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-072-
     082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion