Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

313
FXUS63 KOAX 130547
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday morning with
  additional thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and
  evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible, especially during the afternoon and evening.

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday with
  increasing uncertainty beyond this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

After a quiet Friday, thunderstorms return to the forecast early
Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will be in response to
moisture return on a low-level jet impinging on a slowly sagging
cold front. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of eastern Nebraska prior to sunrise.
These thunderstorms will be in an environment that is forecast
to have sufficient instability and shear for the development of
large hail in the strongest cells. A damaging microburst can`t
be entirely ruled out also. These thunderstorms gradually shift
east of the area through the remainder of the morning hours.

There is a bit of uncertainty on how the remainder of Saturday
will transpire. Some of this evening`s guidance tends to keep at
least some weak convection along the cold front into the early
afternoon, accelerating it`s advance southward. Other guidance,
has a lull in activity until later in the afternoon and
evening, slowing the front`s advance. In either event, a
digging trough over the northern Rockies tonight will sink
towards our area by afternoon. This will act to support the
development of additional thunderstorms along the cold front. At
this time, most of this convection is forecast to remain south
of Interstate 80. With plentiful instability and wind shear, a
risk of severe weather is anticipated. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado remains
possible if a discrete cell can remain ahead of the front. In
addition, flash flooding is possible with westerly upper-level
flow supporting potential training of thunderstorms along the
east-west oriented front. It should be noted, that if early day
convection lingers, this could inhibit later convection, so we
will have to closely monitor forecast trends.

By evening, the cold front and any associated thunderstorms will
push south and out of the region. A gusty north wind will fill
in behind the front, ushering cooler temperatures. High pressure
and cooler weather settles in on Sunday into early next week.
Tuesday into Wednesday sees temperatures begin to climb once
again as the pattern amplifies ahead of our next potential
weather system on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening
appears to be our next chance of rain for the area. After
Wednesday`s system, forecast model guidance begins to diverge
and significant uncertainty remains on the exact evolution of
the forecast pattern in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions prevail through around 10Z for the
terminal. Expect thunderstorms to potentially impact the
terminal between 10Z and 12Z, moving in from the west. There is
an additional chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms
in the vicinity of the terminal between 19Z and 22Z. This chance
was omitted from prevailing conditions for now due to low
confidence of more than a spotty shower/storm impacting the
terminal. Better chances for this secondary period will be
southeast toward KLNK. Light and variable winds are expected
through 15Z before becoming northerly around 12-18kts.

KOMA: VFR conditions prevail through the overnight hours and
into tomorrow morning. Expect winds to become light and variable
overnight, transitioning to the north by 21Z. There will be a
chance of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moving
through the area this morning, generally between 13Z and 16Z at
the terminal. Gusty winds and maybe some hail will be possible.
There will be a break in the thunderstorm action for a few
hours, with another chance for storms beginning around 21Z.

KLNK: VFR conditions will prevail overnight at the terminal.
Expect an increase in clouds over the next few hours as our next
storm system moves in from the west. Thunderstorms may impact
the terminal between 12Z and 14Z. After a lull in storm
potential for the rest of the morning, there is a second chance
for thunderstorms after 21Z. Winds will be light and variable
overnight, becoming northerly around 12-18kts by 21Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

118
FXUS63 KGID 130631
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
131 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatter predawn thunderstorms in south central Nebraska could
  be marginal strong to severe with hail the main risk. Those
  clear the area by 8 AM.

- Additional development of isolated thunderstorms is possible
  late this morning and afternoon as a cold front starts its
  advance. The chance for stronger storms is southeast of a
  Hebron to Osborne line, and for just a short period of time.

- Next week starts slightly cooler than normal, then warms to
  above normal Wednesday before dropping back a bit late week.

- Next week is looking more dry than wet with time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The early morning weather map showed low pressure in the southeast
Colorado with a weak inverted trough to the north. A cold front,
sort of temporarily stalled, was across the Nebraska Sandhills,
while southeast/south winds where generally noted across south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Surface dewpoints were
increasing but the deeper moisture remains more tied to the storms
in central/southwest Kansas. Satellite showed mainly clear skies in
south central Nebraska with a canopy of thicker cirrus clouds from
the thunderstorms across north central Kansas. Aloft, the forecast
area is in a quicker flow between an advancing trough to the north
and more sub-tropical flow the south. The result is a more zonal
feel/look to the current upper flow.

The main action for the weather is today, and mostly during the
predawn hours to come. CAMS models have perked up with development
of convection by 3 AM in south central Nebraska as the moisture and
instability surge north on the south/southwesterly low-level jet.
Those showers and storms quickly increase in coverage and intensity
as they will move east/northeast, favoring areas of south central
Nebraska north of Highway 6, and especially east of a Kearney to Ord
line. SPC Marginal risk is worthy given decent mid-level instability
and favorable shear, though we don`t have quite the low level
moisture advection of two nights ago, nor are the mid-level lapse
quite a steep. These storms will be elevated in nature and a classic
overnight marginal to low end severe risk for a couple of hours at
least. One negative could be the convection across southern/central
Kansas acted to disrupt LLJ and moisture, which could lead to less
organization in general. The southern part of the area (i.e. north
central Kansas) seems the least likely area for storms early today,
though we are seeing development already near the Kansas state line
southwest of McCook. That is probably the beginning of tonight`s
weather event.

The models are pretty uniform in suggesting this morning convection
will move east of the area between 7 AM and 9 AM, leaving a drier
period for at least a few hours. The previously mentioned cold front
will start to find some legs late this morning and works its way
south across the area through the afternoon. Behind the front,
expect a stiffer north wind to develop, and while it may be that
much cooler than yesterday, it will be "cooling" with time. As the
front advances, some lingering mid-level instability could result in a
few showers or maybe a lightning strike, especially along/east of
Highway 281. The front is expected to clear north central Kansas
around 5-6 pm. It "could" spark a localized stronger storm for an
hour or so southeast of a Hebron to Osborne line, but confidence is
low in that scenario. SPC slight risk does include a sliver of
Mitchell county though the clear better risk for severe weather is
farther south and east.

Winds will be up a bit this evening from the north but die off after
sunset with drier air filtering south overnight. As skies clear,
lows will well below normal, much like Friday morning, with some 40s
again in the favored area. Sunday is the coolest day of the week
with highs only middle 70s. Look for a mixture of clouds and
sunshine, with more clouds south/west than north/east. The forecast
is currently dry, but in the expected northwest flow, subtle waves
can spring up a few afternoon sprinkles in the afternoon.

The region remains under a more cyclonic flow through Tuesday. By
Tuesday, we should return to near normal temperatures. Wednesday is
likely the warmest day of the next 7 days with temperatures peaking
ahead of an advanced front. Temperatures will slip back a bit later
next week. There are sporadic, isolated rain chances Wednesday
thorugh Friday, so can`t say for sure its dry, but its trending more
dry than wet for sure next week. The next "best" shot for a more
widespread rain/storm chance is likely Father`s Day weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle,
and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly
winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few
thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to
the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited
thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see
some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being
said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry
through sunrise Saturday.

On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push
through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be
~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas
will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid
afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing
near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely
southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones.
Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become
strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and
0-6km shear 30-40kt.

Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for
Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the
40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High
temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid
70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening
through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over
the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to
reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push
100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager
through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a
more active period again starting the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low-level wind shear is expected to be an issue tonight through
12Z as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies near 1500ft
above southerly surface winds.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop around 08Z ahead of a
cold front, with the potential for these storms to impact the
terminals between 08-11Z. While not explicitly included in the
tempo group, these storms may be capable of producing severe
hail.

As these thunderstorms leave the area, MVFR ceilings will
follow. As the cold front passes through the area, these
ceilings will start to rise to high MVFR around 16Z and
eventually to VFR ceilings around 19Z. There is also a potential
for lagging showers into the afternoon. However, confidence is
not high enough in the coverage of these storms to include in
the TAF at this time. Northerly surface winds will increase in
strength into the afternoon gusting to 25kts, dropping off
again after sunset around 2Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion