Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

345
FXUS63 KOAX 050344
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
944 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will reach the upper 60s to low 70s today before a cold
  front moves through overnight, bringing gusty winds and
  dropping Wednesday highs into the upper 50s.

- Breezy conditions return Thursday and Friday, with highs
  generally in the 60s.

- Temperatures cool significantly this weekend, with the next
  chance (20-40%) for precipitation arriving Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Today and Tomorrow...

Objective analysis this afternoon depicts a longwave mid- to upper-
level trough persisting over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS.
With fleeting surface high pressure in place, calm and clear
conditions continue this afternoon. Ample sunshine and mixing into
warmer air aloft have pushed temperatures into the upper 60s
and low 70s across much of the area, roughly 10 to 15 degrees
above early November averages.

Tonight, a shortwave trough pivoting into the northern Plains will
induce surface cyclogenesis over the Dakotas. An associated cold
front will sweep southward across the area overnight into early
Wednesday. Behind the front, northerly winds will gusts between 20
and 30 mph before gradually diminishing through the day as surface
high pressure builds in. The post-frontal air mass will return highs
to near-normal values on Wednesday, topping out in the mid-50s.

Thursday and Friday...

Weak mid-level riding will pivot into the region Thursday and
Friday, allowing temperatures to rebound into the mid-60s. Overnight
lows will generally fall into the mid-30s to low 40s. Breezy
conditions are expected, with afternoon wind gusts of 20-30 mph. The
strongest wind gusts are expected across northeast NE.

Saturday and Beyond...

A cooling trend will set in Saturday through early next week as an
amplifying mid- to upper-level trough digs into the central and
eastern CONUS. A leading shortwave disturbance and associated
vorticity maxima on Saturday could bring the first chance for
snowflakes across portions of the area as a surface low develops
over the western Dakotas and tracks southeast toward eastern NE and
western IA. Long-range guidance continues to show light
precipitation on the backside of the low, with varying tracks of the
low. Temperatures will vary greatly Saturday, with highs ranging
from the upper 40s in northeast NE into the mid 50s near the NE-KS
border before dropping into the 20s by Sunday morning.

Long-range guidance shows varying solutions as far as precipitation
type is concerned. The ECMWF solutions brings the low through
earlier in the day, resulting primarily in rain across northeast
NE, with nearly 80% of ensemble members excluding snow.
Conversely, the GFS favors a slightly later passage with a
sharper temperature drop on the backside of the low and
supporting a rain-to-snow transition early in the day. About
one-third of GEFS members depict snow, and recent GEFS runs have
trended slightly further south with precipitation, possibly
reaching as far south as the I-80 corridor. Regardless, QPF
amounts remain light, generally topping out near 0.10-0.15".
PoPs currently peak around 20-40% across eastern NE and western
IA Saturday. Have kept measurable snowfall out of the current
forecast package, though forecast confidence remains low at this
range. Gusty winds will also accompany the system, with late
morning and afternoon gusts potentially exceeding 30 mph. Fire
weather concerns may arise ahead of the low, though minimum RH
values are expected in the 30-40% range.

Sunday and Monday will likely be the coldest days of the period as
CAA dominates, with highs likely peaking in the 30s on Sunday and
overnight lows into Monday morning dippings into the teens across
the area. Highs in the 40s will linger into Monday. However, the
cool pattern should be short-lived as mid-level riding builds in
behind the departing trough. Both the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks favor a return to above-average temperatures with near- to
slightly below-normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 944 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
passing clouds at FL200-250. A cold front is in the process of
moving through the area with gusty northwest winds developing in
the 05/08-09z timeframe. Winds will subsequently diminish to
less than 12 kt by Wednesday afternoon before switching to light
southeast Wednesday evening. LLWS is anticipated between 05/06z
and 05/12z at KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

732
FXUS63 KGID 050513
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1113 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall pattern over the next few days will continue to favor
  mainly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures,
  though there will be day-to-day fluctuations with frequent
  frontal passages.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures (50s to near 60F)
  for tomorrow, but temperatures rebound to widespread 60s for
  Thursday and Friday.

- A stronger cold front arrives on Saturday and may lead to
  strong NW wind gusts of 35-45 MPH, sprinkles, and areas of
  fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Fire weather concerns haven`t really panned out today, despite
widespread well-above average temperatures, thanks to only
modest wind speeds/gusts. RHs have tanked and temps have spiked
behind a sfc trough that currently lies along our far NW/W
fringes of the forecast area - generally from around ODX to LXN
to CSB. Behind this trough, winds have taken on a more Wrly
downsloping component compared to the more S/SW wind direction
further E. LXN (behind the sfc trough) has warmed into the low
80s and RH has dropped into the teens...but fortunately, wind
remains fairly light around 10-15 MPH. Mild and dry conditions
will continue into the evening, but a cold front will sweep in
from the NW overnight and turn winds around to the NW. This will
usher in significantly cooler temperatures for Wednesday - 50s
to around 60 degrees. Despite the 15-20 degree drop in highs,
it`ll actually still be around normal for early Nov...but
there`s also going to be added chill from continued breezy NW
winds...so not bad, but not nearly as pleasant as today.

Temperatures will rebound a bit for Thursday as winds swing
back around to S/SW/W, though there looks to be some cloud cover
around. Mild temps continue into Friday, and there should be
more sunshine. Will have to monitor winds, though. Some guidance
is fairly breezy (NW 15-25 G30-35 MPH), but latest NBM is still
fairly modest.

A stronger cold front will swing through late Friday into
Saturday and bring another push of cooler temperatures and
strong NW winds. Model guidance continues to hint at some
potential for light precipitation, as well...particularly N/NE
of the Tri-Cities. This would most likely be in the form of rain
showers as best chances for the four-letter "s" word to remain
along/N of the ND/SD border. Latest EPS ensemble shows decent
agreement amongst the members for fairly strong NW winds -
likely at least 30-40 MPH, but potentially as high as 45-50 MPH.
The further SW one goes, the more likely there will be some
drier air - potentially dry enough for some fire weather
concerns. Current blend falls short of reaching criteria as its
mainly 25-30%, but another 5-10% drop certainly seems plausible
depending on the timing/track of main storm system.

Ensembles show a stout slug of cooler air to move in from the N
for Sunday into Monday, accompanied by a seasonably strong 1040+
mb high pressure center. This could really tank lows Monday AM
into the teens if timing and cloud cover line up just right.
However, the cold looks to be brief as the zonal to NW upper
flow keeps a progressive pattern in place and allows for mild
temperatures to return from the W/SW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...any clouds passing through are expected to remain in
the upper levels. A surface cold front has worked its way
through the terminal areas...switching winds to the NW for the
rest of tonight. Also for tonight...models suggested the
potential for marginal LLWS, so do have that mention going
through 12Z. Can`t rule out some gusts closer to 20 MPH after
sunrise through the first half of the day...but models show
speeds diminishing during the afternoon as winds turn more
easterly, then southeasterly for the evening hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion