Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

373
FXUS63 KOAX 072312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds decrease as a boundary slips through the
  region today, shifting winds out of the north. Mainly dry
  conditions persist through Friday.

- Warmer temperatures return to the forecast Monday and Tuesday with
  highs reaching into the 80s.

- Expect chances for showers and storms for at least a portion
  of the forecast area Saturday and again on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper trough over the Great Lakes
and portions of western Canada with northwest flow over the Great
Plains. Expect sunny skies to continue through the afternoon with
possibly a few high clouds moving in from the west by this evening.
Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to mid-70s across the
region. There is a weak boundary sliding south this afternoon,
having already moved through Ord, Norfolk and Tekamah. Gusty
southwest winds will persist for a few more hours across
southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa as the boundary continues to
slide to the south. Behind it, winds have become northerly around 5-
10mph. Winds will become light and variable overnight.

Late Thursday night into Friday morning, an embedded shortwave
trough slips through the region, possibly kicking off a few
sprinkles or light showers for areas along and south of a line from
Genoa to Omaha.

Friday, northwest flow persists over the Great Plains. Much of the
day will be pleasant with highs in the 70s. A few locations may
approach 80 degrees. Winds remain northerly to northwesterly,
increasing late Friday morning/early afternoon. Overnight lows will
be mainly in the 40s.

Saturday, a shortwave trough drops in from the northwest into the
region. This will give us a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional chances for
showers are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sunday through Tuesday: An upper ridge will be in place over the
Canadian Rockies into Idaho and western Montana. Models have a
shortwave trough coming ashore over the PACNW by Sunday evening.
This system will make its way across northern Montana on Monday,
sliding across the Dakotas Monday night/Tuesday morning, and
southeastward into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa by late Tuesday
morning. Sunday`s highs top out in the 70s, with 80s expected Monday
as WAA takes place. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
the forecast Tuesday as the system moves through. There is still
some uncertainty in the timing and location of the system, so this
forecast may change as we come closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions continuing at terminals this
evening and for the duration of the TAF period. Will see a
scattered to broken cloud deck at 10,000 ft approach terminals
late tonight and persist into Friday. Model guidance indicates
some low end potential (10-15% chance) for light rain/sprinkles
at terminals from 06z to 13z, but low level dry air will largely
limit precipitation reaching the surface. Northwest winds lower
to less than 5 kts overnight and switch to the east northeast.
Winds then turn north northwesterly in the afternoon with some
gustiness of 20-25 kts at KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

359
FXUS63 KGID 080008
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
708 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers/weak thunderstorms possible this
  evening (any storms mainly in our southwest), with spotty
  light showers/sprinkles lingering here or there through the
  overnight. Any rainfall expected to be light (0.10" at
  most...many areas likely no more than sprinkles).

- Solidly near-critical fire weather conditions looking
  increasingly-likely Friday afternoon (especially counties
  along/north of I-80), due to a combination of breezy northwest
  winds and relative humidity (RH) as low as 20-25%. Next week,
  at-least-near-critical conditions likely nearly every day as
  temps warm/winds increase.

- Although likely only scattered in coverage, our overall BEST
  chance for showers/thunderstorms through the next 7 days
  arrives Sat afternoon-evening. Severe storms appear fairly
  unlikely, but a few stronger possible especially in our KS
  counties.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the
  forecast period with highs in the 70s/80s each day and
  overnight lows mainly 40s/50s. It is increasingly-likely that
  frost/freeze concerns are behind us for the spring.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper level disturbance in northwesterly flow will cross the
local area tonight brining with it the chance for a few high
based showers/sprinkles and possibly a weak thunderstorm to
parts of the local area. Given the lack of surface moisture,
little to no accumulation is expected across the vast majority
of the local area, with the best chance of a thunderstorm
expected during the evening hours across areas primarily
southwest of the Nebraska Tri-cities.

Continued northwest flow will then persist into the weekend
before an upper level ridge eventually transitions eastward
across the local area by Sunday. Before the upper level ridge
moves across the local area, one more notable disturbance is
expected to impact the local area on Saturday brining with it a
slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening (although there is a low end chance for a
few pop up sprinkles Friday afternoon). While a few stronger
storms with mainly gusty winds will be possible with this
disturbance/surface front Saturday, limited instability will
likely limit the potential for severe weather...and the local
area remains outside the marginal risk from SPC. That said, a
few models such as the NAMnest fire up a line of storms along
the front Saturday afternoon which could eventually impact local
portions of north central Kansas before exiting the area, so
will need to continue to keep an eye on the timing of this
system.

Thereafter...an upper level ridge is expected build across the
area late in the weekend with a return to high temperatures well
above normal (in the 80s) through at least the first half of
next week. These warmer temperatures combined with a continued
dry airmass and breezy afternoons will eventually likely result
in some near-critical to critical fire weather concerns,
although with fuels starting to green-up, some of this concern
may be at least partially alleviated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the
period, although a mid-level ceiling (around 8-10K ft.) will be
common much of the time. Precipitation-wise, although a spotty
sprinkle or brief light shower cannot be totally ruled out at
some point later this evening into early Friday morning, these
chances are quite low and deemed not even worthy of TAF
inclusion at KGRI. At KEAR, high-res models indicate a slightly
better chance of a passing shower or two, so have maintained a
PROB30 group valid 04-07Z.

Turning to winds, through most of the period they will be of
little consequence, with speeds this evening-overnight and on
into the first part of Friday daytime averaging solidly under
10KT from varying directions. However, a steadier northwest
breeze will kick in as the afternoon wears on, with especially
20Z onward likely featuring gusts around 20KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion