Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

406
FXUS63 KOAX 211910
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
210 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme to very high fire danger is forecast for northeast
  Nebraska on Wednesday afternoon.

- Shower and storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday
  (50-80%). Some storms on Thursday afternoon and evening may be
  severe (15% chance for any given storm.)

- Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances
  for showers Saturday (30%) into Sunday (70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Skies are primarily clear across Nebraska, Iowa, and the High
Plains as H5 ridging suggests subsidence. A boundary draped
across the area`s mid-section is more of a dryline than a cold
front.

As of the lunch hour, temps are primarily in the mid- to
upper-70s with a few 80s popping up in northeast Nebraska where
the drier air is easier to heat. Dewpoints currently range from
the mid-50s south of the boundary draped across the area to some
mid- to lower-30s north of it.

The boundary is progged to slip south by only 50 miles or so
through the afternoon hours before southerly winds drive it
north over the course of the evening and overnight. By midnight
a nocturnal LLJ develops over western/central Nebraska and
helps with moisture return over this forecast area.

.WEDNESDAY...

A deep upper low approaches from the west while a sfc low
develops in lee of the Rockies. Breezy southerly winds develop
ahead of the system. A dryline will push through east and
approach northeast Nebraska. Stronger gusts of 25-35 knots
in this part of the state will help mix some drier air to the
surface where dewpoints may find their way back into the 30s
again. This would allow RH values to slip below 20%. There is
lots of uncertainty as to how far east the boundary will push
and how low the dewpoints will get. This forecast is undoubtedly
aggressively dry and closer to the 25th percentile of model
solutions. However, fire weather days do tend to lean this way.
Have flipped the FIRE WEATHER WATCH to a RED FLAG WARNING and
expanded considerably. Recent contact with local fire officials
increases confidence in fuel readiness in northern counties.

Were the dryline to remain in central Nebraska, fire concerns
would be tamped down.

Showers and some thunder look possible late Wednesday night
thanks to the LLJ and a little elevated instability.

.THURSDAY...

A powerful 985 hPa low will track just north of the US/Canadian
border on Thursday and drag a cold front/dryline through the
area on Thursday afternoon and evening. There`s still plenty of
uncertainty in its timing, but it`s worth noting that the EC and
the RAP both slowed the front with 12Z runs today and therefore
produce a better chance of severe weather for Thursday as our
area should spend the afternoon in the warm sector. Ahead of
the front, plenty of instability and straight hodographs mean
thunderstorms are likely. Although they may start as supercells,
the straight hodos suggest interference between storms as
upscale growth continues. Expect an eventual line of storms to
form as they push east. This will reduce the threat of tornado
development (early supercells would be capable of producing
funnels/tornados). Heavy rain looks possible, too, with PWAT
values above the 97th percentile.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

Behind the departing system, cooler weather builds in with highs
anticipated to peak only in the (seasonally normal) sixties. Two
different rounds of precipitation are possible over the weekend
with lesser chances on Saturday (40%) and best chances on Sunday
(70-80%) with an upper low and attendant surface system
developing across SD/Nebraska vicinity. Moisture return and PWAT
values are noteworthy once again on Sunday. It`s early, but NBM
ensemble probabilities suggest a 50-60% chance of 0.50" or more
precip falling this weekend. That holds true for the entire
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist. Two air masses are across the area
with southwesterly winds south of the boundary and
northeasterly winds north of it. Regardless, these winds are
relatively slow at 5-10 knots.

Expect southerly winds to dominate by midnight tonight with
stronger winds developing on Wednesday morning, still out of the
south.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

800
FXUS63 KGID 211729
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s today with light winds and
  mostly sunny skies.

- Southerly winds gusting 35-40mph on Wednesday.

- A few thunderstorms are possible across far western portions
  of the area Wednesday evening/night. Scattered thunderstorm
  chances return Thursday afternoon/evening to eastern portions
  of the area.

- Near-Critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible across
  portions of the are Wednesday and Thursday.

- Cooler weather arrives Friday through the weekend, with
  scattered chances for precipitation though the finer details
  are uncertain at this time.&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 50s and 60s
under partly cloudy skies. Aloft the area under northwesterly flow
with ridging over the Rockies and troughing over the East Coast.
Southerly winds currently gusting 20-30mph will become light by
sunrise as temperatures bottom out in the low 40s to low 50s. A
seasonably warm day is expected as highs climb into the mid 80s to
low 90s. Overall light winds and mostly sunny skies will result in a
pleasant day across the area.

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Wednesday ahead of
an approaching trough. Highs on Wednesday will climb into the
80s, warmest across western portions of the area closest to the
dryline where dewpoints are the lowest. Windy weather is
expected during the day on Wednesday, with southerly winds
gusting 35-40mph. Given the stronger winds expected, an area of
near-critical fire weather conditions may develop during the
afternoon-evening hours (see Fire Weather section for more
details).

Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline in
western Nebraska/Kansas late Wednesday afternoon/evening as it moves
east. It remains possible that these storms could survive long
enough to reach far western portions of the area. If storms do reach
the area, they could be strong-marginally severe given
sufficient shear and instability. The cold front/dryline push
through the area Wednesday night. An isolated shower/storm can`t
be ruled out, though overall chances remain low at this time.
The cold front will stall out across far eastern portions of the
area (or just east of the area) on Thursday. Another round of
shower/storms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening along the
front. Given the position of the front, precipitation coverage
looks to be fairly limited overall (along/east of Highway 81).
Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Cooler weather is
expected Friday onwards, with multiple chances for rain, though
the details remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions and overall little in the way of cloud cover
reign across the area this afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air
and satellite data show west-northwesterly flow in place, with
broad ridging over much of the CONUS, set up between a trough
axis working its way toward the East Coast and a larger area of
low pressure spinning just off the West Coast. At the surface,
we are sitting between high pressure centered over the
Midwest/Great lakes and a trough axis draped through the High
Plains, keeping our winds southerly. Between the gusty
conditions and low relative humidity values this afternoon, made
no changes to the ongoing area-wide Red Flag Warning, which
runs through 9PM this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday...

Overall, no notable changes made to the shorter term forecast
period...which remains dry. Models are in good agreement showing
the main upper level ridge axis currently off to our west
shifting east onto the Plains during the day Tuesday into
Tuesday night...pushed by the larger scale upper level low
pressure system which will be working its way inland through the
northern half of the West Coast. Not looking at any notable
disturbances passing through the area, with skies remaining
mostly clear-partly cloudy. A disturbance sliding east to the
north of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning will
push a weak surface frontal boundary south. Doesn`t look to make
it all the way through the area, stalling out roughly halfway
around midday...bringing more easterly winds to northern
portions of the area, and southerly across the south. As surface
troughing gets more organized over the High Plains through the
afternoon hours, that boundary lifts back north/gets washed out,
with winds area-wide becoming south-southeasterly. Speeds
remain on the lighter side for most...topping out around 15
MPH...the far SE corner of the area may be a bit more breezy,
with better potential for gusts over 20 MPH. Though warm once
again with highs in the 80s, the more southerly flow brings
increasing dewpoints north...diminishing fire weather potential
some. See Fire Weather section below for more.

Mid-week on through next weekend...

On Wednesday, models remain in pretty good agreement showing the
main upper level low pressure system continuing to trek east,
centered roughly over the ID/MT/WY border region by early
evening. Ahead of this system, expecting a tightening pressure
gradient to develop across the forecast area thanks to
strengthening low pressure/troughing over the High
Plains...resulting in stronger southerly winds. Sustained speeds
of 20-30 MPH and gusts near 35-40 MPH will be possible through
the day on Wednesday. High temperatures once again climb into
the 80s...and the continued southerly flow pushes those 40s-50s
dewpoints further north...keeping relative humidity values from
falling off too much. Potential for some spots of near-critical
fire weather conditions are there...mainly in NNW areas. See
Fire Weather section below for more.

During the afternoon hours on Wednesday, models showing the
development of a sharper sfc dryline, which looks to extend
through western portions of NE-KS. Increasing lift out ahead
of the main upper level system looks to swing SW-NE onto the Nrn
Plains and portions of the Central Plains...sparking off
thunderstorms along that sfc dryline off to our west. Confidence
in the coverage of these storms isn`t the highest at this
point. Our late day-evening precipitation chances remain on the
low side around 20 percent...some uncertainty with how far south
things develop, getting further away from the better forcing
aloft, and models show warmer mid-level temperatures as well.
Some models keep our forecast area completely dry, others clip
our far W-NW areas. IF storms can form closer to or move into
our west, not out of the question some could be strong-
marginally severe. Have some finer forecast details to iron out.

Wednesday night on into the day on Thursday, forecast
precipitation chances are tied to the main upper low/trough
axis itself...and while those chances aren`t high, they are
potentially too broad. Have 20-30 percent chances continuing Wed
night-early Thu AM across much of the forecast area...could see
those getting trimmed quite a bit if recent model trends hold.
For the afternoon-evening hours Thursday, thunderstorm chances
will be closely tied to the accompanying surface cold
front...which most models currently show either right on our
eastern edge or just outside our forecast area before things
fire. Again...finer details to be ironed out. Thursday brings
better potential for increased fire weather concerns...as that
surface boundary ushers in drier dewpoints...and winds look to
remain on the gusty side.

For the end of the week and this weekend...periodic
precipitation chances remain in the forecast. Models showing
upper level low pressure moving into central Canada for at least
Fri-Sat, with the potential for shortwave disturbances to pass
through the region. Confidence in the specifics isn`t overly
high...so chances remain in the 20-40 percent range. Sunday`s
precipitation chances are tied more to another disturbance
moving inland through srn CA...and models are currently more
optimistic with precip potential with this round. We`ll see how
things trend...it`s only Monday. As far as temperatures
go...following 70s-near 80 on Thursday, highs fall into the
60s-near 70 for Friday, then more 50s for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are currently forecast for this
TAF period...though there is some uncertainty with cloud bases
near/after sunrise Wednesday. Winds start out this period on the
lighter/variable side with a weak boundary across the
area...becoming more SSErly this afternoon as that boundary
pushes north. Speeds this afternoon look to top out around
10-15 MPH. Models continue to show the potential for LLWS at
both sights from roughly 04-09Z...kept that mention going. A
few more clouds work their way in with time tonight-Wed...after
12Z, models showing some differences with how low ceilings get.
With increasing southerly low level flow, increasing moisture
and lower ceilings work their way north...at this time most
guidance has the terminals remaining on the northern fringes
thorugh the end of this period...so have a mention of SCT030
going, upcoming forecasts will be able to fine tune that as new
model data comes in. Winds turn more southerly with time tonight
through the end of the period...with increasing speeds after
sunrise. Gusts near 30 MPH will be possible from mid-morning on
through not only the rest of this period, but the rest of the
day on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Highs in the 80s to low 90s are expected today. Dewpoint values
today will range from the upper 30s along/northwest of a Lexington-
Ord line, to the low 50s along/southeast of a line from Phillipsburg-
York. This results in afternoon relative humidity values ranging
from 10-15% in the northwest, around 20% across central portions of
the area (Tri-Cities) to around 30% across southeastern portions of
the area (Hebron-Beloit). Most areas are expected to experience
light winds, with gusts at or below 15mph. The exception will be
across Osborne/Mitchell/Jewell counties where gusts of 20-25mph are
possible. Given that the strongest winds are expected to overlap
with the highest humidity, fire weather concerns are low today
though a window of elevated fire weather is possible across
Osborne/Jewell/Mitchel counties.

Southerly winds gusting 35-40mph are expected across the area on
Wednesday, strongest along/west of Highway 281. Dewpoints on
Wednesday will be higher, in the 40s and 50s, with the lowest
dewpoints northwest of the Tri-Cities. Highs will climb into the
80s, warmest across northwestern portions of the area where
dewpoints are the lowest. An area of near-critical fire weather
conditions may develop northwest of the Tri-Cities where the
greatest mixing/lowest humidity occurs. Along/southeast of the Tri-
Cities higher dewpoints look to keep RH values higher, and above
near-critical/elevated fire weather criteria despite the gusty
winds.

A cold front/dryline move through the area Wednesday night,
resulting in a drier airmass over the area on Thursday. Highs
in the 70s results in afternoon RH values below 20% across the
area. Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected given westerly winds gusting 20-25mph. An area of
critical fire weather conditions may develop where gusts over
25mph are possible, most likely for areas northwest of the Tri-
Cities.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion