Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

509
FXUS63 KOAX 141035
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
535 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An impactful winter weather system is expected on Sunday with
  snow and strong wind gusts (50-60 mph) bringing near-blizzard
  conditions to much of the area.

- Cooler conditions return Sunday into Monday, with Monday
  morning wind chills in the 10 to 20 degrees below zero range.

- A warming trend will take hold by mid-week, with highs
  reaching the 70s and potentially low 80s by the end of the
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Saturday through Monday...

A few radar reflectivity returns continue to move across portions of
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa late this evening as weak
WAA and a narrow band of frontogenesis brush the area. Model
soundings indicate a fairly dry sub-cloud layer, suggesting much of
the precipitation will struggle to reach the surface. That said, a
few flurries may be possible (PoPs 20-30%) across far northeast
Nebraska and west-central Iowa early Saturday morning, though no
impacts are expected.

Attention then turns to an impactful system through Sunday as an
amplifying mid-level trough translates from the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest. In response, lee cyclogenesis is expected to
occur across eastern CO/western NE Saturday, with the surface low
tracking eastward across Nebraska through early Sunday. Ahead of the
low, a warm front lifting northward across the region Saturday will
lead to a sharp temperatures gradient across the forecast area.
Areas near the NE/SD border are expected to remain north of the
boundary with highs in the mid 50s, while locations near the NE/KS
border reside in the warm sector with highs potentially reaching the
70s.

Precipitation is expected to develop late Saturday night into early
Sunday as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough and associated low. Initial precipitation may begin as spotty
light rain showers before colder air wrapping in behind the system
supports a transition to snow Sunday morning. PoPs currently peak in
the 70-90% late Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The surface
low is currently forecast to move into western Iowa by mid-morning
Sunday. On the backside of the cyclone, strengthening CAA and
increasing mid-level frontogenesis may support the development of a
deformation band across portions of the region late Sunday morning
into the afternoon. This area could see periods of moderate
snowfall, potentially enhanced by convective elements within the
band, as supported by 14/00Z CAM guidance. Snowfall will gradually
taper off from west to east through Sunday afternoon and early
evening.

There remains some uncertainty in the exact track and forward speed
of the surface low, which will strongly influence snowfall
distribution. A faster eastward progression will shift the primary
deformation zone east of the Missouri River, while a slower
progression would allow a longer residence time under the heavier
snow farther west into eastern Nebraska. QPF is generally expected
to remain under 0.25" with the highest values wrapping from
northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Model soundings exhibit a
healthy saturated area in DGZ, bringing SLR`s in the deformation
zone to an estimated 15-20:1. Current expectations favor the highest
snowfall totals across west-central Iowa, where amounts around 2-4
inches appear likely, with totals decreasing towards 1-2 inches
westward into eastern Nebraska. Expect small refinements in this
distribution through subsequent forecast packages.

In addition to snowfall, strong winds are likely on the backside of
the system as a tight surface pressure gradient develops. North-
northwesterly wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range appear likely on
Sunday (70-90% probability, per the HREF). HREF guidance even brings
a 20-30% probability for gusts to exceed 60 mph. These winds will
produce blowing snow and visibility concerns, with near-blizzard
conditions possible even in areas receiving only 1-2 inches of
accumulation. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch remains in
effect for portions of northeast and east-central Nebraska and west-
central Iowa from Sunday morning through late Sunday night. A High
Wind Watch is also in effect for all eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa for Sunday.

Plummeting temperatures through Sunday will leave Monday morning
lows in the single digits, with continued gusty winds bringing wind
chill temperatures in the 10 to 20 degree below zero range.
Additional blowing snow concerns may continue into early Monday
before winds finally let up in the afternoon. Highs on Monday
will only peak in the 20s for most.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The cooler pattern will be short-lived as broad ridging builds
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS by midweek. This will
support a gradual warming trend, with temperatures rebounding into
the 40s and 50s on Tuesday. A weak disturbance tracking through the
northern Plains Tuesday may bring a 15-30% chance of a light
rain/snow to the area, though impacts appear minimal.

Any lingering snowpack after Tuesday should melt quickly as
temperatures climb well above normal. Highs are expected to reach
the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Friday, with portions of east-
central Nebraska evening seeing a 20-50% probability of reaching 80
degrees by the end of the work week, according to the NBM.

The warmer pattern is expected to persist beyond midweek as well,
with both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continuing to favor
above-normal temperatures across the region, with probabilities in
the 60-80% range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with any cloud cover at or above FL100. The potential for
MVFR ceilings increases at the very end of the period at KOFK.
Light east winds as of 10z become southeast while increasing to
12-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt by 15z. The gusty winds
continue into Saturday evening with LLWS developing at all three
terminal locations. A cold front moves into the area late
Saturday night with winds switching to northwest at KOFK and
KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034-043>045-051>053.
IA...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

915
FXUS63 KGID 141124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions return today. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for areas along and west of Highway 281.
  Refer to the "Fire Weather" section for more specifics.

- Very strong north-northwest winds arrive early Sunday morning
  and continue through the day. Gusts near 60 MPH are possible,
  and a High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire area.

- This system will also bring a significant cooldown and a
  chance for light snow to the area during the day on Sunday.

- Near-record temperatures return for the middle to end of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Overall, there are no significant changes from previous
forecasts.

Temperatures warm into the the 70s for most of the area today,
fueled by gusty south-southwesterly winds ahead of an
approaching storm system and associated cold front. This cold
front will then sweep across the area between 1-4am Sunday,
ushering in gusty northwest winds and a significant cooldown.

The initial surge of winds behind the front will be noticeable
(~50 MPH), but north-northwesterly winds will continue to
increase during the daytime. Sunday afternoon gusts near 60 MPH
are increasingly likely (60-70% chance).

There is still potential for light snow to accompany the wind on
Sunday (primarily during the daytime hours). Fortunately, the
heaviest snowfall rates are expected to remain to our northeast,
and the probability for 1.0" of snow accumulation is very low
(10% or less). Nevertheless, localized poor visibility or patchy
slick spots are possible.

And, speaking of poor visibility, the strong winds could promote
areas of blowing dust during the day on Sunday. While this is
not a "classic" blowing dust setup, the burn scars from the
recent wildfires will present a source for blowing ash/dust.

Temperatures plummet into the single digits and teens Sunday
night, and continued northwest winds will drive wind chills as
low as -15 degrees. Monday remains cold and breezy, but a warmup
is still on-track for the middle to end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Cooler temperatures and lighter winds prevailed across the
region today as surface high pressure filled in from the north
behind yesterdays cold front. Southerly return flow on the
backside of this high has resulted in winds picking up a bit
across western areas, with southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph
being observed in a few spots mainly west of highway 183. These
modestly gusty winds combined with minimum relative humidity
values below 30 percent are resulting in elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions to our west, and can see an
uptick in fire activity on the Cottonwood fire on satellite the
the past few hours as a result.

As the sun goes down tonight, expect southerly winds to
increase to near 10 MPH across the entire area overnight, with
less gustiness...as the pressure gradient increases across the
center of the local area. This tightening of the gradient should
result in a more breezy day across the area on Saturday once we
begin to mix the atmosphere by late morning, and a Red Flag
Warning was issued from roughly 281 westward this morning to
account for the combination of breezy south winds and low
relative humidity values from the late morning through early
evening hours. Was a bit generous with the eastward extent of
the warning, but if we mix just a bit deeper (temperatures have
been trending upward) the more critical conditions will have the
potential to spread further east. Outside fire weather concerns,
Saturday will be a fairly pleasant/breezy day across the local
area - with high temperatures returning to the 70s for most.

Saturday evening the focus will begin to shift to a strong cold
front approaching from the north. One small concern not covered
in the current headlines is the potential for a surge of
southerly winds late Saturday evening as indicated in a few
models, with the potential for southerly winds to reach 60 mph
across mainly southeastern portions of the area overnight.
While it will be windy across the area Saturday night in this
surge, did not include this period in the high wind watch as the
main show is still expected to be during the daytime hours
Sunday with/behind the cold front. Multiple EC/GFS ensemble
members are strongly signaling severe gusts with this front, and
issued a high wind watch to cover this (albeit, it may be need
to eventually begin earlier if southerly surge ahead of the
front continues to trend stronger).

While winds on Sunday continue to indicate a very windy
day across the region, precipitation has trended downward, and
snowfall totals with the latest model runs have roughly been
cut in half from just 12 hours ago. Evenso, any snow that falls
with 60+ MPH winds could cause significant impacts, so will need
to continue to monitor. In addition, the dry weather and recent
fires could also contribute to some blowing dust/ash across the
area, and added areas of blowing dust to the forecast for
Sunday primarily for areas southwest of the Nebraska Tri-
Cities during the daytime hours.

As winds start to diminish Sunday evening, temperatures will
plummet, and expect a very cold start to the work week, with low
temperatures Monday morning falling into the single digits in
spots, with wind chills as cold as -10 degrees anticipated. This
cold start to the week will be brief, however, and a return to
high temperatures in the 70s and 80s is anticipated for the
middle and latter portion of the week. Thankfully, as
temperatures soar thanks to a strong area of high pressure
building aloft, winds will be on the lighter side, and while
there will still likely be some fire weather concerns, it could
be much worse.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds today will turn to the south with gusts 20-25kts in the
afternoon. There will be a brief period of LLWS tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front will move through around
07Z, ushering in strong north-northwesterly winds (gusts 40kt).
Even stronger winds are expected to arrive during the daytime
on Sunday.

VFR conditions are expected for most of the period, but MVFR
ceilings are expected to return just prior to 12Z Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Today, humidity will dip very low (15 percent or lower) in western
portions of the area. This will be accompanied by south-southwest
winds gusting 25-30 MPH at times. As a result, areas along and west
of Highway 281 are in a Red Flag Warning.

Strong north-northwest winds arrive early Sunday morning and
continue through the day. Gusts near 60 MPH are expected during the
daytime. Temperatures will trend much colder, therefore humidity
will remain well above critical thresholds. Additionally, light snow
is possible, mainly over northeastern portions of the area during the
day on Sunday.

Monday will remain cold...but still relatively dry and breezy.
Temperatures warm through next week, although winds do not look
particularly concerning at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005-006-017-018.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion