Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

908
FXUS63 KOAX 061712
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1112 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The day begins with patchy freezing fog.

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as snow and
  some ice moves through. The highest potential for at least 1"
  will be northeast of a Plainview, NE to Harlan, IA line
  (60-90% chance).

- Breezy winds that gust to 25-35 mph will join the snow/ice
  Saturday, further reducing visibilities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The diurnal curve is a bit bumpy for a second time this week.
Temperatures at KOMA have climbed/held steady since midnight
with a low stratus deck moving in from the northwest. It`s
covered the north-eastern half of the forecast area. Patchy fog
has developed in a few isolated locations where visibility has
dipped below two miles at times. Expect that fog to become more
widespread by sunrise. Dense fog is not expected at this time,
but slick spots are possible with the sub-freezing temps.
Confidence isn`t high in the fog forecast. It never is with a
fog forecast.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows high clouds streaming in
from the northwest with a surface low developing near Gillette
in eastern Wyoming.

The sfc low will help develop a north-south line of
precipitation that will push through the area today from west to
east. Likely PoPs push into northeast Nebraska by 9am with
temps expected to be hung up in the mid-20s along the SD state
line. This should keep precip falling entirely as snow in
northeast Nebraska through the day where accumulations will be
greatest. (They`ll be even higher in South Dakota, but that`s
NWS Sioux Falls` concern.) Accumulations in the northern tier of
counties in the OAX CWA are shaded purple to represent a WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY where accumulations are expected to range from
about 1" to 4" locally. Greatest accumulations should be
wrapped up by about 9pm this evening.

As for areas farther south where it will be a few degrees warmer,
some rain and possibly some freezing rain is expected to mix
in, preventing meaningful snow accumulations. Would love to
remove the threat of freezing rain from the forecast, but
forecast soundings show at least a chance of its development.
The NAM is especially gung-ho with a strong surge of warmer air
at H8. While the surface would remain sub- freezing, snow would
melt at about 3kft AGL before re-freezing on contact here at
the surface of the earth. It`s a recipe for slick roads. Still,
these solutions are in the minority, leaving the likelihood of
snow at Omaha and Lincoln at about 50%, but freezing rain only
at about 10-15% (regular rain is at about 25%). In other words,
we`re suggesting preparation for a wintry mix along I-80 mid-day
today. I have sped up expected timing of the wave of precip
just a bit... expect PoPs to peak at Lincoln around noon and
around 1pm for the Omaha metro. The east to west extent will be
wider along the SD state line than it will be farther south.
Thus, the precip is expected to last for maybe two or three
times longer up north than it will in say... Wahoo.

The NBM didn`t have a good handle on wind speeds with the
surface low passing directly through the area at about sunset.
Behind this pressure minimum, northwest winds develop and I`ve
pushed sustained speeds up to 10-15 knots with gusts up to 30
knots as suggested by momentum transfer methods.

Temps plunge quickly tonight despite the lingering overcast
skies.

.SUNDAY...

The day begins with temps in the teens for most, but single
digits are expected where 1-4" of fresh snow is expected up
north. Cold air advection continues from the surface through
H7. Sfc temps peak only in the mid- teens from points east and
north of Omaha.

The cold air won`t last. An H8 short wave pushes through SoDak
and pulls a warm front through Nebraska on Sunday night. Forcing
isn`t expected to be strong enough to produce precip here (PoPs
10%) on Sunday night.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BEYOND...

Temps will improve by 15-20 degrees from where they were on
Sunday. They`ll be driven another ten degrees higher on Tuesday
as a closed low approaches from the northwest - caught up in
the H5 flow. Current global guidance has a wide range of timing
and location details, but do agree with each other that the
greatest QPF will fall closer to central Iowa and Minnesota.

The West Coast ridge will amplify and our area will be subject
to a parade of shortwaves and regular opportunities for
showers. The NBM currently offers up 20% PoPs of mostly snow,
but some freezing rain, too on Thursday. Expect a lot of changes
in this portion of the forecast in the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A rather complex TAF period is underway. A band of precipitation
and associated cloud shield is bringing IFR to LIFR ceilings to
KOFK and to KOMA shortly. Light snow will continue at KOFK
before tapering off by 20-22Z. Precipitation type at KOMA may
begin as light snow before transitioning to a light rain/snow
mix, tapering off by 21-23Z. Brief visibility drops will be
possible under any heavier showers. There is lower confidence
(30% chance) in a rain/snow mix at KLNK through 20Z, with VFR
conditions generally expected to prevail. Patchy fog/mist may
also bring minor (4-6 SM) visibility restrictions through the
afternoon, particularly at KOMA and KOFK.

South-southeaterly winds will continue at 8-12 kts, gusting up
to 20 kts this afternoon before quickly veering to northerly
this evening. While brief ceiling improvements are possible
behind the departing precipitation this afternoon, widespread
IFR to LIFR ceilings will overspread all three terminals
overnight. Ceilings may gradually breakup and improve in the
final hours of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-
     012-015-018.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

483
FXUS63 KGID 061814
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1214 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climb into the 40s and 50s this afternoon,
  melting any light freezing precipitation that fell this
  morning.

- Cooler on Sunday with highs in the 20s (northeast) to mid 30s
  (southwest).

- Above normal temperatures return Monday and Tuesday with highs
  in the 40s-60s.

- Active pattern continues into next week, with roller coaster
  temperatures above/below normal. Another chance for
  precipitation (15- 25%) arrives Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The light precipitation is exiting our eastern forecast area as
expected. We will see increasing breaks in the clouds with more
sunshine this afternoon and warming temperatures into the 40s,
even some 50s over north central Kansas.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 249 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The forecast remains largely on track regarding the wintry mix
expected across western/northwestern portions of the forecast
area this morning. Shortly after sunrise, a band of
precipitation will move into western portions of the area. A
warm layer of air aloft will result in snow melting into rain
before reaching the surface. Surface temperatures through the
mid-morning hours are expected to hover around or just below
freezing. This will result in a mix of freezing rain where
temperatures are below freezing, and rain where temperatures are
above freezing. The band of mixed precipitation is expected to
be fairly narrow/brief with a 1-2 hour window where locations
could see a light glaze of ice. Still, wherever freezing rain
occurs, slick roads and surfaces are possible for before
temperatures climb above freezing. Areas most favored to see a
light glaze of ice will be west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. By
the late morning hours (10-11am) temperatures climb above
freezing across the entire area, which results in any ice
melting and an end to freezing rain potential. Cooler air aloft
along/north of Highway 92 could result in a period of light
snowfall, though any accumulations would be limited to a light
dusting that melts fairly quickly. Any lingering precipitation
exits northeastern portions of the area during the early
afternoon hours.

The forecast area will reside in the warm sector of the passing
clipper system this afternoon, resulting in temperatures climbing
into the 40s (central/northeast) to mid 50s (southwest). South-
Southwest winds will be breezy at times, gusting 20-30mph. A cold
front pushes through the forecast area this evening/tonight,
bringing a shot of cold air to the area on Sunday. Breezy winds
gusting 20-25mph are possible behind the front tonight. Sunday will
be cooler, with highs in the low 20s (northeast) to mid 30s
(southwest).

Temperatures climb back above normal early next week with highs in
the 40s and 50s Monday, and in the 50s and 60s Tuesday. The forecast
pattern remains active under northwesterly flow aloft. Model
guidance shows increasing spread (differences) moving into the
middle of next week regarding the timing, strength and location of
shortwaves/clipper systems. Still, some PoPs (15-25%) return to the
forecast Wednesday night/Thursday as a clipper moves into the
Plains/Midwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As depicted by the HRRR earlier today, radar is now showing
rain/snow showers developing over SD and moving into northern
Nebraska. These are diurnally aided and should dissipate after
sunset. A few of these could clip northeastern parts of the
area, but nothing measurable/impactful is expected at this time.

The main concern going forward is a brief wintry mix of light
freezing rain, rain, and snow on Saturday as a fast moving
shortwave moves through the area. The short duration of the
event will limit impacts, but there is potential for a brief
period of freezing rain 7am to noon on Saturday. HREF/HRRR/RAP
all show light precipitation move in from the west shortly after
sunrise on Saturday. At this time, surface temperatures will be
subfreezing, with warmer temperatures aloft...favoring freezing
rain (possibly mixed with ice pellets). Realistically, this
will only last for 1-2 hours at any given location, but could
result in some slick patches on roads before temperatures rise
above freezing. The aforementioned models favor areas west of
Highway 183 for the best chance for a glaze of ice, with a
slightly lower threat further to the north and east.

Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal and largely non-
impactful for central Nebraska. Even the highest members from
the HREF only show around 1 inch of snow along our northeasterly
fringes. And that is assuming a 10:1 ratio...which is probably
much too optimistic given the surface temperatures.

Precipitation is expected to end by sunset on Saturday, allowing
any wet surfaces to dry off before falling below freezing
Saturday night. Winds flip to the northwest behind a cold front
Saturday evening.

Sunday is favored to be coldest day of the week, with most
locations remaining below freezing. There are some hints for
post-frontal snow showers on Sunday, but the overall model
consensus remains dry for now.

Temperatures trend significantly warmer for Monday/Tuesday,
then moderate back closer to normal for the middle to end of
next week. Overall, precipitation chances remain limited,
although global ensembles show at least some chance for light
precip mainly in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The precipitation has moved east of our TAF sites and we expect
dry weather through Sunday morning. The wind will remain a bit
gusty through mid afternoon as it gradually turns from
southerly to southwesterly and eventually northwesterly as we
head through the afternoon hours. We should see a little bit of
a lull in the winds as the low pressure center tracks overhead
late this afternoon, but then northwest/northerly winds will
increase this evening behind the low.

The other concern is the possibility for MVFR ceilings this
evening through Sunday morning. The current model consensus is
for persistent low MVFR ceilings most of the night, but can not
rule out periods of IFR ceilings as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/Wesely
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion