Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

557
FXUS63 KOAX 282327
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system arrives Sunday/Monday, bringing chances for
  light snow and drizzle to areas mainly along and south of
  I-80.

- A brief reprieve from colder temperatures (highs: 30s) is
  expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Another storm system will move across the middle of the nation
  on Wednesday, bringing chances for precipitation to the
  region. The best chance for precipitation for our area will be
  for areas along and south of I-80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

We end Meteorological Winter with a mild but slightly cooler day
than yesterday. High pressure remains over Saskatchewan, Manitoba
and the Dakotas today, allowing some cooler air to filter into the
region. Current temperatures remain in the 30s and 40s across most
areas early this afternoon, with a few low 50s toward the
Kansas/Nebraska border. Expect afternoon highs to top out in the 40s
and 50s.

Sunday morning, a weak h7 shortwave trough will be on the lee side
of the Rockies, over the Central High Plains. This trough will
progress eastward through the day, arriving in our CWA late Sunday
afternoon. Models have continued to trend the system further south,
which has resulted in another lowering of snow amounts for portions
of the area. The current forecast now has locations south of I-80
receiving up to a half inch of snow with maybe a localized inch.
With the warmer temperatures the last few days, the ground will be
warm, so it will take some time for snow to accumulate, which will
impact measurable snow depth.

Thermal profiles are showing a possibility of the development of
some freezing drizzle late Sunday night/Monday morning for portions
of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. There is a little more
uncertainty of this scenario heading up toward the Omaha Metro,
while we have higher confidence in this occurrence in the extreme
southeastern corner of Nebraska. A Winter Weather Advisory was
issued for Nemaha, Pawnee and Richardson counties for Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning to account for some potential
freezing drizzle and concerns about Monday morning`s commute. A
light glaze to a few hundredths of ice may be possible in these
areas should freezing drizzle develop.

Another round of precipitation is expected Monday afternoon.
Temperatures should rise into the upper 30s to mid-40s, so
precipitation should fall as rain with this second wave with maybe
some drizzle possible in the overnight hours.

Tuesday, a mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the
Four Corners region to around Goodland and Dodge City by the
evening. Models are still in disagreement over the timing, strength
and track of this system. The GFS remains consistently more
aggressive in bringing it over the OAX CWA on Wednesday, while other
models continue to track it south across Kansas and Missouri. Also
consistent is the placement of a stationary front over extreme
southeastern Kansas/central Missouri during this timeframe. Went
with this second solution for Wednesday and proceeded to pull PoPs
down, especially for areas north of I-80 as the GFS appears to be an
outlier at the present time. The best chances for precipitation will
be south of our area around where the boundary is; however, areas
south of I-80 will still have potential (10-20% chance) of receiving
a little rain or a rain/snow mix.

Heading into the latter portion of the forecast period, models show
the potential for another system to move across the region, bringing
additional chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Winds have shifted northwesterly to start out the TAF period,
with the lingering gusts from the afternoon falling off as VFR
conditions hold. Expect winds to stay at 10 kts or less through
the next 24 hours, becoming increasingly westerly tomorrow
morning into the afternoon with increasing mid/high cloud cover
as well. Late tomorrow afternoon, MVFR to IFR conditions will
slide just to the south of the KOMA/KOFK area, affecting KLNK
for 2-3 hours. Along with those conditions will come some light
snow that will struggle to accumulate at all, with any chances
further diminishing as you go north towards KOMA/KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday
     for NEZ091>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

242
FXUS63 KGID 282333
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
533 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday-Monday carry still-highly-uncertain/low forecast
  confidence chances for wintry precip. On Sunday, there MIGHT
  be a mix of snow/sleet primarily in the southeast quadrant of
  our forecast area (CWA). Then Monday morning, there MIGHT be
  a chance for light freezing drizzle mainly within the
  southeast half of our CWA. Forecast confidence and/or expected
  impacts are still too low to justify any formal Advisories at
  this time.

- Tuesday could bring additional drizzle and/or rain showers,
  but with less of a threat for any freezing precip.

- Our forecast has now largely "dried out" for Wed-Thurs, as we
  reside "in between" upper level systems.

- Friday-Saturday brings a return of more low-confidence precip
  chances. These should mainly be in the form of rain...and
  POSSIBLY some thunderstorms (far from a "sure thing").

- As for cumulative precip AMOUNTS through the next 7 days,
  unfortunately we have seen a slight decreasing trend, with
  official WPC QPF now less than 0.25" for roughly the NW half
  of our CWA...and no more than 0.25-0.50" for roughly our SE
  half.

- Temperature-wise: Sunday is clearly the coldest day of the
  next week (highs mainly 30), with highs in the 40s-50s
  returning Mon-Tues...then more widespread 50s-60s Wed-Sat
  (high temps actually trended up several degrees Wed-Fri).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
  COMMENTS:

- In terms of 7-day forecast changes since our previous (early-
  AM) issuance, they are mainly highlighted by:
1) precip chances (PoPs) have been lowered enough for most of
Wednesday-Thursday that our official forecast is now largely
dry.
2) Due in part to #1, high temps have trended up several
degrees for Wed-Thurs, but have also come up for Friday as well.


- Unfortunately, what has NOT changed is considerable/above-
  average FORECAST UNCERTAINY, both in the:
1) Shorter term: Both Sunday-Monday could feature pesky rounds
of light wintry precip...OR nothing much at all).

2) Longer term: Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show
widely varying solutions for Friday-Saturday, mainly due to big
timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper
trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50%
during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR
too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big
uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate
thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday and is dry
Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely
offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out
here!


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sat. March 7):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
Just to get this out there right off the top, it appears high
temps this afternoon are going to end up a good 5-10+ degrees
cooler than our initial early-AM forecast. Despite wall-to-wall
sunshine, the steady northeasterly breezes and weak low- level
cold air advection are clearly "winning out". As a result, highs
will only reach (at best) the upper 40s in our north...to low-
mid 50s central...to mainly upper 50s-low 60s in our south-
southwest (except warmest mid 60s mainly within
Furnas/Rooks/Osborne counties).

Speaking of these north-northeasterly breezes, if anything they
are slightly stronger than expected, with sustained speeds
commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH (localized higher). In the
big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite
imagery and short term model data confirms broad northwesterly
flow over our local Central Plains region, as we remain well
southwest of a shortwave trough passing through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
High confidence that it stays dry, with only increasing (and
mainly high level) clouds out ahead of the next low-amplitude
wave approaching from the west. There could be some lower
stratus cloud that invade mainly our northern counties between
midnight-sunrise, but this of lower probability than the more-
certain high cloud increase. At the surface, breezes will remain
steady out of the east-northeast (sustained 10-15 MPH with some
gusts up to around 20 MPH). As for low temps, the steady
breezes/increasing clouds ensure that readings will not "tank",
but due in part to today ending up cooler-than-forecast,
certainly did not want to warm up lows much. As a result, kept
them fairly close to previous forecast, with mainly low 20s
Nebraska and mid-upper 20s Kansas (along with Furnas County
area).


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (possible round of snow/sleet?):
Even at we get closer to "zero hour", Sunday`s forecast honestly
remains a legitimate "pain". For example, while the latest ECMWF
has trended all but dry, various higher-res models
(HRRR/NAMNest) and even the recent 18Z NAM are fairly suggestive
that especially the afternoon hours will feature a rapid
development of a varied mix of showery precip types over
especially the southeast quadrant of our CWA (those areas mainly
near/east of Hwy 281 and near/south of I-80). Given that
forecast soundings hover near the 0C line in the low-mid levels,
this showery precip (should it develop) could be anything from
snow, to sleet, to perhaps even a little freezing rain or "plain
rain" (especially in KS where surface temps should be warmest).
Although things certainly have the potential to still trend
worse, our latest forecast officially "downplays" things a bit,
with PoPs/Chances no higher than 20-40%, and any snow/sleet
accumulation under one-half inch. Due to this current "low end"
expectation in terms of wintry precip likelihood and
amounts/impacts, we cannot justify a proactive Winter Weather
Advisory at this time (but this bears watching). On top of
everything, and although not reflected in our official forecast
or the latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, there could even be
a few rumbles of thunder given up to a few hundred J/kg of
elevated instability/CAPE. As for daytime high temps, they were
not changed much...still calling for mainly mid 30s east to
upper 30s-low 40s west.

For around sunset and beyond, any possible MEASURABLE wintry mix
should have vacated our CWA to the east. However, especially the
latest NAM (which is often over-agressiveness with low level
saturation) suggests that especially our far eastern zones could
see a low chance for freezing drizzle. Low temps changed
little...mainly low-mid 20s.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (possibly freezing drizzle issues?):
Unfortunately, uncertainty in the likelihood/magnitude of any
wintry precip continues. However, it is starting to look more
likely that the vast majority of any precipitation that does
occur will be in the form of fin-droplet DRIZZLE or FREEZING
DRIZZLE (as opposed to steadier heavier showers). Any freezing
drizzle threat would mainly occur right away in the morning,
before surface temps warm enough to change any possible light
icing over to "plain"/non-freezing drizzle by late morning.
Getting into the very late night (post-midnight) hours, some
models (including ECMWF) suggest that an area of showers/weak
thunderstorms could flare up very near our far southeastern CWA,
but better chances currently appear to focus slightly east, and
this is not in our official forecast.

Temp-wise, highs similar to previous (low 40s east to upper 40s
west), with Mon night lows a bit warmer than the previous few
nights (mainly upper 20s-mid 30s).


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT (more, mainly rain chances):
Although confidence is high that it will mainly be of the
lighter and non-frozen variety, various chances for rain/rain
showers continue as a slow-moving shortwave trough traverses the
Central Plains. Again, while not in the official forecast most
areas, a few weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High temps
currently aimed around 50 degrees most areas.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (mostly dry):
Although rain showers could return for Thursday night (mainly
per ECWMF), the majority of these 48 hours have trended drier
with no mentionable precip chances, as we reside "in between"
systems. High temps have trended up several degrees...now mainly
mid 50s-low 60s Wed...and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY (rain chances, but high uncertainty):
Mostly copying/pasting what was already touched on above...
Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying
solutions, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our
next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at
no higher than 50% during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR
too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big
uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate
thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday (possibly even severe!)
and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but
conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to
sort out here, and it`s far too soon to "buy into" any one
scenario. Temperature-wise, also somewhat low-confidence, but
for now we are calling for highs mainly mid 50s-low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR-IFR conditions possible during the early-late morning hours
at KGRI/KEAR. The latest Higher resolution guidance shows a band
of low MVFR to IFR ceilings developing near/over the terminals
around 10-12z and lingering into the late morning hours
(16-18z). There remains some uncertainty on the position of this
and it`s development potential. For now have indicated this
potential with a SCT010 group, but a BKN group may be needed if
confidence increases. Otherwise ceilings build over the area
tonight and gradually lower Sunday morning, with ceilings
falling below 10,000ft by the late morning hours. Northeast winds
gradually shift to the southeast throughout the TAF period,
with winds remaining around 8-10kts.

Additionally there could be a brief window for a light wintry
mix to impact KGRI/KEAR during the late morning to early
afternoon hours (15-20z), but again confidence in timing and
location is too low to include in the TAF at this time. A mix of
snow, freezing rain and sleet are possible but anything that
falls would be fairly light. If this occurs, sub-VFR conditions
are also possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion