Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

047
FXUS63 KOAX 162329
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enjoy the beautiful weather this afternoon. Changes are in
  store for the next few days.

- Five counties across northern Nebraska have been upgraded to a
  Red Flag Warning for concerns of low RH values, gusty winds,
  and dry conditions.

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast Thursday, with
  snow possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Expect a very nice afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid to
upper 60s for most areas. A few low 70s are not entirely out of the
question for the western portions of our forecast area. Southwest
winds around 5-15mph will decrease toward mid-afternoon to around 5-
10mph. Temperatures remain mild overnight with lows primarily in the
40s.

Tuesday will bring some forecast challenges in regard to fire
weather concerns. A ridge will be in place over the region Tuesday
morning, shifting to the east with southwest flow coming overhead in
the afternoon. Southerly winds of 15-25mph with gusts of 30-40mph
will be possible in the afternoon. WAA will be occurring with an
unseasonably and potentially record-setting day for some locations.
Expected highs will be in the 70s, with a few locations approaching
80 degrees. Record high temperatures range from 72-77 degrees.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for a portion of the
area. Antelope, Boone, Pierce, Madison and Platte counties have been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, where minimum RH values will fall
into the teens to low 20s, co-located with winds gusting to 30-
40mph. Elsewhere across the CWA, there are some concerns with cloud
cover potentially limiting how much our RH values will fall and
mixing potential of stronger winds down to the surface. Can`t say it
won`t happen, but confidence in meeting RFW criteria was not where
it needed to be to issue a warning at this point in time. Therefore,
the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the remaining counties.
Knox and Cedar counties in northern Nebraska remain left out of the
watch. There is a boundary that will be draped across that area and
could limit potential fire weather issues enough to not need a
warning.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, low pressure moves across the
Dakotas, with a cold front moving west to east across Nebraska.
There will be a 20-30% chance of a few rain showers beginning
Tuesday evening and tapering off overnight. Although temperatures
will be cooler, reaching the mid-50s to mid-60s, unseasonably cooler
temperatures are expected.

Heading into Thursday, a second cold front drops in from the north,
bringing a shot of colder air to the region after a fairly warm
first half of February. Expected high temperatures will be in the
30s for northern Nebraska, with the 40s and 50s hanging on in areas
the front does not arrive to until later in the day. The warmer
temperatures are expected to occur earlier in the day, with
temperatures falling during the afternoon and evening. Right now,
Thursday appears to have a decent shot as some precipitation across
the region. With temperatures returning to the 30s, rain, changing
to a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow is expected.
Precipitation should clear out by early Friday morning.

The extended forecast shows the potential for the cooler weather
sticking around with occasional chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period, with
lighter wind speeds largely out of the south/southeast expected
to begin increasing in speed shortly after sunrise tomorrow. By
mid-morning, gusts will push into the 20-30 kt range, with the
strongest speeds expected near KOMA and points to the south.
Those gusts will continue until 00z tomorrow evening, when a
wind shift pushes winds northwesterly and gusts become more
sporadic. Short-term models do also indicate that there could be
isolated gusts above what we see tomorrow afternoon (above 35
kts) -- a trend that will be monitored if it continues to show
up in future runs of the models.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ015-018-032>034-043>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ016-017-
     030-031-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

287
FXUS63 KGID 162336
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast
  period, with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Normal for
  this time of year are mainly in the low 40s.

- Expecting gusty winds to develop across the entire area for
  Tuesday, starting out the day from the SSW, turning more
  westerly with the passage of a frontal boundary. Drier air
  accompanying this boundary along with the warm temperatures is
  expected to result in widespread relative humidity values
  below 20 percent. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
  entire forecast area from noon-8PM Tuesday.

- A couple of disturbances crossing the Plains will usher in
  notably colder temperatures (closer to normal) and chances for
  precipitation. Thursday brings the best chances of
  accumulating snow, especially across the northern half of the
  area, as well as gusty NW winds.

- Following highs on Wednesday in the 60s, these disturbances
  will drop highs for Thu-Fri back into the 30s-40s. A gradual
  rebound is expected into early next week, with 40s-50s back by
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Currently through tonight...

The combination of light winds and well above normal
temperatures is making for quite a nice start to the new work
week. Upper air and satellite data showing a quiet pattern aloft
across the region, with zonal flow/broad ridging dominating the
central CONUS. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy, with
batches of upper level cirrus passing through the area. At the
surface, we`re sitting between areas of high pressure off to our
north and east, with overall weak troughing along the High
Plains. This is keeping winds light, around 5-10 MPH...with
varying direction. No big surprises as far as temperatures go,
with everyone topping out at least in the 60s this afternoon,
with readings near 70 across western areas.

This evening and tonight, quiet conditions continue. Models are
in good agreement showing the current zonal upper level flow
turning more southwesterly with time...as upper level troughing
currently over the West Coast pushes further inland. Expecting
to see more cloud cover overnight, with very mild overnight lows
tonight...mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s in the SE (normal is mid
teens-near 20). The threat of new record warm lows remains...see
the Climate section below for more.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall dry conditions remain in the forecast through the day on
Wednesday, with the main forecast concern during this period
remaining with fire weather concerns on Tuesday afternoon. More
details on fire weather specifics can be found in the Fire
Weather section below.

Looking at the daytime/evening hours on Tuesday, there hasn`t
been any significant changes in the models. Broad view, models
continue show a large area of upper level low pressure moving
into the Pac NW and continued troughing along the West
Coast...while a shortwave disturbance (currently over srn CA)
will be swinging northeast out of the Nrn/Central Rockies onto
the Nrn/Central Plains. Ahead of this approaching disturbance,
sfc troughing/low pressure over the High Plains deepens,
bringing more SSErly winds by 12Z Tuesday. Winds are expected to
increase in speed through the day, turning more SWrly ahead of
sfc trough axis during the morning, then switching to the west
as that boundary pushes through the forecast area. Tuesday
remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast period,
with increased mixing and downsloping westerly winds tapping
into a warmer airmass...forecast highs remain in the mid 70s for
most spots (a few spots reaching closer to 80 is not totally
out of the question), with record high temperatures looking to
be broken (see Climate section below). One question with
temperatures lies with cloud cover, especially across the
southern half of the forecast area, where models show the
potential for more cloud cover. The increased mixing and push of
drier air with the surface boundary is expected to bring a
notable drop in dewpoints, with the current forecast calling for
teens to push into western portions of the coverage area.

The lone mention of precipitation during this period remains in
the Tuesday evening period...but chances remain low around 20
percent. Models, to varying degrees, continue to show the
potential for at least spotty rain showers across ENErn portions
of the forecast area late in the day/evening, driven by that
sfc frontal boundary and main upper level trough axis swinging
through. These look to be short-lived chances, with models
showing the better precip potential focusing off to our NNE.

For the daytime hours on Wednesday, models show the area sitting
under upper level shortwave riding, set up between Tuesday`s
departing shortwave disturbance and the next one that will be
working its way into/through the Rockies. The wind forecast is a
bit uncertain, as we`ll be losing the influence of one area of
sfc low pressure (keeping winds westerly) and gaining the
influence of the next one deepening over the High Plains, which
will be switching winds back to more of SSErly direction.
Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected, with
low-mid 60s forecast.

Thursday on into early next week...

Following hot-by-Feb-standards temps on Tuesday, a taste of
winter returns for Thursday as snow returns to the forecast.
This next upper level shortwave disturbance emerges out onto the
High Plains late Wed night-Thu AM...taking a bit more of an
easterly track across the Central Plains, any northward progress
stopped up by Tuesday`s system which models have sitting near
the MN/Can border. Colder air is ushered in by the system`s
accompanying cold front, meaning the likely p-type is snow. The
best chances continue to favor the northern half of the forecast
area...and with this still a few days out and some model
differences, NBM PoPs are pretty broad, with 50-60 percent
chances through the Tri-Cities and 30 percent chances down into
north central KS. Latest runs of GFS/EC deterministic and
ensembles show a tighter gradient from north to
south...something to be worked on in the coming days. Latest run
of the GFS/EC trended the precip and snowfall amounts tied to
the west- east orientated axis of stronger mid-upper level
frontogenetical forcing a touch further north...both showing
areas south of I-80 with less than 10-20 percent chance of
seeing one inch or more of snow accumulation. Whether you get
snow or not, Thursday looks to be another windy day, with
northwesterly winds building across the area behind the cold
front...gusts of at least 30-35 MPH will be possible.

Additional low-end chances for precip remain in the forecast for
the end of the week Fri-Sat...but confidence in those chances
are not high, as models show some notable differences with where
other disturbances track and whether they bring precip at all
to the forecast area. Upper level ridging and dry conditions
return for the start of the new week Sun-Mon.

As far as temperatures go, following the 70s Tuesday and 60s
Wednesday, the reinforcing cold front passing through looks to
drop highs for Thursday and Friday back closer to normal in to
the 30s-low 40s. Expecting a rebound as we get through the
weekend/early next week, with highs by Monday back in the mid
40s-low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected although there is a small
chance (less than 20%) of low ceilings/low visibilities between
11z and 17z. Winds will remain out of the southeast at around 5
knots then will strength a little (near 10 knots) around 09z.
Winds will become more southerly around 15z and will strengthen
to around 15 knots at 18z out of the south southwest. Winds will
become more southwesterly at 21z and will increase to around 20
knots sustained with higher gusts. Winds will become westerly to
west northwest by 00z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the area
Tuesday afternoon, with western portions expected to see the
overall worst conditions.

Ahead of deepening surface low pressure over the High Plains,
the day will start out with increasing south-southwesterly
winds, with gusts near 25-30 MPH possible by late morning-
midday. A surface frontal boundary will be gradually pushing
east across the region during the afternoon hours, which will be
ushering in a switch to more westerly winds. Out of either
direction, gusts closer to and possibly exceeding 40 MPH will be
possible through the afternoon hours. The overnight hours
Tuesday night bring some relief, but still looks to be breezy
out of the west across much of the area.

Expecting well above normal high temperatures tomorrow, with
mid-upper 70s forecast (normal is mainly lower 40s), thanks to
increasing mixing potential into a warmer airmass ahead of the
sfc frontal boundary. This better mixing and a drier airmass
working in from the west is expected to result in dewpoints
falling into the teens and 20s...and combined with the forecast
temps, relative humidity values look to bottom out anywhere from
10 to 25 percent during the afternoon hours. The overall lowest
RH values of 10-15 percent are expected across areas mainly west
of Highway 281.

Decision was made to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning for Tuesday...no changes made to the area (the
entire forecast area) or time (noon-8PM). If looking at strict
RFW criteria, far SE areas are marginal, with potential for more
cloud cover and RH values currently forecast to bottom out in
the low- mid 20 percent range (criteria is 20 percent or
less)...but with the gusty winds expected and dry conditions in
place, felt it was best to include all 30 of our counties.

Though cooler on Wednesday, dewpoints remain low, and afternoon
relative humidity values may once again drop into the teens to
near 20 percent. Winds are expected to be lighter, transitioning
from westerly to start the day to more southerly by the end of
the day...but near-critical fire weather conditions will be
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record high temperatures and warm low/min temperatures are
likely to be approached/broken at various points Tuesday for
both the Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and
Hastings airport (records back to 1908).


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE            | LATEST FORECAST

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017                  | 78

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981                  | 77



- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE    | LATEST FORECAST

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981                  | 43

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972                  | 43

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion