Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

140
FXUS63 KOAX 092255
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms is in effect
  for southeast Nebraska this evening. Large hail is the main
  threat along with strong wind gusts. PoPs remain at 70 to 90%
  from southeast Nebraska toward west central Iowa late this
  afternoon into the evening.

- Dry conditions expected for most locations Friday with highs
  in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Storm chances continue into the weekend and into early next
  week. Severe weather may return Monday areawide and again for
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1818z KOAX radar imagery shows ongoing scattered showers and a
few storms over the forecast area. This activity appears driven
by some subtle forcing from a weak H5 shortwave trof trekking
over the KS/NE border and a push of H7-H8 warm advection. The
lift should help force more showers and few thunderstorms early
this afternoon.

As we head into the later afternoon and evening, a sfc boundary
currently draped over northeast Kansas into north central Missouri
will retreat northward. With the boundary retreating, should
see some moisture pool in our far south as dew points reach the
low 50s. Another shortwave will move over the southern half of
the forecast area by this evening, and with continued low level
warm advection should see an area of storms fire along the
boundary after 22z. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts combined
with MUCAPE of 500 to 1,000 J/kg should be available for storms
(especially along the Kansas/Nebraska border) to utilize
implying a threat for severe convection, with large hail the
primary threat along with some gusty winds.

Forecast soundings show much of the instability rooted aloft at H8,
and the low level jet should provide some forcing to lift parcels
upward allowing convection to develop. It is worth noting
though that areas over our far south could see some sfc based
convection. If convection can become sfc based, decent low
level curvature observed in hodographs would suggest at least some
tornado threat. At this time, the SPC currently has a slight
risk of severe storms along the Nebraska/Kansas border, with a
marginal risk encompassing the I-80 corridor and points to the
south.

Latest 12z CAM guidance shows convection developing along the
frontal boundary after 22z over southeast Nebraska, then moving
away from the area to the east southeast. Farther northeast
toward the Omaha metro area into western Iowa, should still see
continued showers and storms given the aforementioned low level
warm advection and the passing wave. Some backbuilding is
observed per model guidance, so an isolated flooding risk may
develop over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. PoPs remain
at 70 to 90% from southeast Nebraska toward west central Iowa
late this afternoon into the evening and taper off overnight.
Lows tonight cool to the 40s over our far south, while 30s are
expected in northeast Nebraska.

Friday will see sfc high pressure move over the Northern Plains
resulting in dry weather for most of the forecast area. Highs
reach the mid to upper 50s. Some low level warm advection on the
backside of the H8 high may lead to a few scattered showers
(15-30%) along the Nebraska/Kansas border. By late Friday
evening, should see the baroclinic zone lift through the area
resulting in continued showers and storms over our far southern
areas (30-55% chance).

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The H5 pattern for Saturday will see southwesterly flow return over
the Northern Plains as the ridge axis pushes east. With trofing
observed over the western CONUS, should see several waves eject to
the northeast toward the area and work with the low level moisture
flux resulting in 70 to 90% PoPs areawide Saturday. A few severe
storms are also possible (5% chance) this day, with a marginal risk
of severe weather encompassing much of the forecast area. Winds will
be fairly breezy that day too from the south at 20 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Chances for showers and storms (30 to 50%) persist into Sunday, with
the highest chances expected in western Iowa toward southeast
Nebraska. Gusty southwesterly winds persist too helping us warm to
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

By Monday, the western CONUS longwave trof will start to dig in over
far southern California. The persistent southwest flow will allow
continued disturbances to eject northeastward into the Central
and Northern Plains. This results in continued PoP chances for
Monday afternoon (20 to 40%), while for Tuesday (40 to 65%), the
H5 trof finally lifts and approaches our area. SPC outlooks
currently show a good portion of the forecast area in a 15%
severe risk Monday, and areas southeast of a line from Seward to
Mapleton for Tuesday. Those with any outdoor plans Monday and
Tuesday should continue to pay attention to the forecast given
this severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Showers and storms are staying well south of KOFK this evening,
leaving this site VFR overnight into Friday. Storms will be
moving out of KOMA mostly by 01Z with a few scattered showers
lingering for a couple more hours. A band of MVFR cigs will
slide south into KOMA around 01Z and make it down to KLNK around
01-02Z this evening, expected to linger for a few hours before
clearing around 04Z. Meanwhile winds remain mainly out of the
north around 10KT. Once low clouds clear, expect VFR conditions
to prevail through the rest of the TAF period with winds
shifting to the northeast later in the morning on Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

539
FXUS63 KGID 092358
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
658 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms remain possible through around 11 PM in
  our far south-southeastern forecast area (mainly Nuckolls,
  Thayer, Jewell, Osborne, Mitchell counties). Primary threats
  hail up to ~ 1.5 inch (ping pong ball) and wind gusts up to ~
  60 MPH.

- Scattered non-severe storms will be possible Friday with a few
  severe storms possible across a select portion of the area
  Saturday and Tuesday.

- The total coverage of the storms Friday and Saturday may be more
  limited than widespread.

- Temperatures will warm back up to the 70s and 80s starting
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026


Today/Tonight...

The cold front, which passed through the area last night, has since
stalled into a stationary boundary near the NE/KS state border this
afternoon. As a result, a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms have
managed to pop up across a select portion of the area. The coverage
of thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly minor (less than 25%
of the area) with concentrations mainly east of HWY-281 through the
rest of the afternoon/night.

A few of the scattered storms later this evening may become strong
to severe (mainly between the 5-11PM timeframe). The best potential
for storms to become severe will be for ones that develop south of I-
80 (areas closer to and south of the stationary boundary) where the
better moisture and instability will lie (upper 40s to mid 50s
dewpoints with 1,000-2,000J of MUCAPE). A Slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather encompasses portions of Webster, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties in Nebraska as well as Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne
and Mitchell counties in Kansas with a Marginal risk (level 1 of
5) covering a good portion of locations south of the interstate.
Hail up to the size of half dollars with thunderstorm wind gusts
near 60MPH will be possible within the strongest storms.

Overall, the coverage of any severe activity should remain somewhat
limited in coverage across only a few southeastern portions of the
area. Through decent 30-40kts of bulk shear will be in place with
some modest low-level helicity south of the boundary, the low
dewpoints no greater than the mid 50s with high LCLs (>1,500m)
should limit the tornadic potential this evening (to mainly a hail
and wind threat). Flooding is also not expected to be a concern as
storm motions should keep most of the convection rolling on through
(around 25-40MPH), limiting residence times of any heavy downpours.

Beyond the storm potential today/tonight, winds starting out of an
easterly direction north of the stationary front and southerly
direction south of the front, will become east to northeasterly
overnight across the area. Lows tonight will also likely fall to
their coldest point until Tuesday night as lows reach down to the
30s to mid 40s.


Friday & Saturday...

Temperatures for Friday will generally remain on the cooler side
(mid 50s to low 60s) as excessive cloud coverage looms overhead with
steady northeast cold air advection to start the day. The 10-15MPH
steady northeast winds gusting as high as 20-25MPH will gradually
turn east to southeasterly through the day. Though an isolated and
non-severe thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Friday afternoon to
evening, the slightly better potential will not occur until the
overnight hours when the low-level jet kicks in. Even then, the
latest CAM`s have significantly decreased the coverage of storms
across the overnight period, likely as result from weak synoptic
support underneath a zonal to weak ridging pattern in the upper-
levels. Precipitation chances look more to be a hit or miss with
likely only a few areas that may catch meaningful precipitation
amounts greater than 0.2".

Slightly stronger southerly winds for Saturday may blow between 20
to 25 MPH with gusts as high as 30-35MPH possible. The stronger
winds will come as a surface low ejecting out of the Northern
Rockies quickly races towards the Northern Plains. This wind will
help bring in warmer air with highs raising around 15-20 degrees
into the 70s compared to Friday. A similar story precipitation-wise
may play out Saturday as any storms that do form throughout the day
will be expected to be highly scattered in coverage. A marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) covers the central and southeastern 2/3rd of the
area. The strongest storms could produce quarter sized hail with
wind gusts near 60MPH.


Sunday and Beyond...

The continuation of southerly to southwesterly winds through Monday
will help highs maintain in the upper 70s to mid 80s range for both
Sunday and Monday. The next major pattern change up will come Tuesday
as an upper-level trough approaches the Central U.S. A surface
cyclone is favored to form across the Central Plains, potentially
bringing another round of severe weather to at least a portion of
the area. The southeast corner of the area is clipped by the
Storm Prediction Center`s extended Day 6 (Tuesday) 15% Severe
Weather Outlook. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to wobble
between the 70s and low 80s through next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Overall-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the
period, although a lower-VFR ceiling (down to around 5K ft.) is
expected to prevail for a good chunk of it. Also high confidence
that at least the vast majority of the period remains
precipitation-free (and TAFs reflect this). That being said,
there appears to be a small chance (10-20%) for a few spotty
showers and/or a weak thunderstorm anytime mainly 10-16Z, so
this bears watching.

As for winds, they will be steady (but not overly-strong). The
overall-strongest speeds will occur right away this
evening...generally sustained around 15KT/gusts 20-25KT out of
the northeast. Speeds will back off slightly late tonight into
Friday daytime, but will remain a touch elevated with sustained
speeds commonly 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT as direction gradually
shifts from northeasterly...to easterly...and eventually to
east-southeasterly later in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion