Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

562
FXUS63 KOAX 211015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs on Saturday will climb into the 90s across much of the
  area, with current forecast is exceeding record temperatures
  at several locations.

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today through
  Sunday. The strongest combination of very dry air and gusty
  winds is likely to occur Saturday afternoon into early
  evening.

- Strong winds follow Saturday`s heat, with northerly gusts
  increasing to 35-45 mph Sunday morning before slowly
  diminishing through the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Saturday through Sunday...

The mid/upper level ridge over the desert southwest continued to
inch eastward today, pushing warmer air into the Central Plains.
Temperatures soared into the mid 80s this afternoon, shattering
records at Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk by a solid 4 to 9 degrees.
Light winds will prevail into the overnight hours, before increasing
out of the southwest Saturday morning.

The thermal ridge sitting just to our west will shift east as it
broadens and intensifies Saturday, bringing unprecedented heat to
the forecast area, for the month of March. Highs are forecast to
reach the low to mid 90s tomorrow, breaking not only daily records,
but likely becoming the warmest temperatures ever reached in the
month of March over eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.

More distressing than the heat will be the potential for Extreme
Fire Danger. Forecast soundings continue to depict the potential for
excessively dry, hot air aloft to mix down the surface. Minimum
relative humidities are expected to drop to 10-15%, with a few
locations possibly drying into the single digits. Southwesterly
winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front
Saturday afternoon, with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph possible. Although
winds may fall just short of traditional Red Flag criteria for most
of the area Saturday, recent collaboration with local fire partners
reveals that the combination of hot temperatures with excessively
dry fuels will be sufficient to produce extreme fire behavior, even
with the marginally strong winds.

The previously mentioned cold front will plow through the forecast
area Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing an abrupt
northerly wind shift and strong gusts to the region. Gusts as high
as 35-45 mph will be possible with the initial frontal passage,
dropping slightly to 25-35 mph behind the front Sunday. With the
potential for ongoing fires to become even more uncontrollable
Saturday night, a Red Flag Warning will remain in effect from 11 AM
Saturday to 4 AM Sunday.

Cooler air will filter in behind the front, squashing the thermal
ridge. Highs on Sunday are forecast to reach the upper 50s and low
60s, still warmer than the low to mid 50s that are typical for this
time of year.  A few CAMs hint at the potential for sparse showers
or sprinkles to develop behind the front. However, these will likely
struggle to reach the surface.

Monday and Beyond...

Northwesterly flow and dry conditions should prevail into early next
week. Temperatures will gradually rise from the 50s and 60s on
Monday into the 60s and 70s Tuesday.

The heat and strong winds crank back up by the middle of next week,
as a ridge redevelops over the southwestern CONUS. Highs push back
into the 70s and 80s by Wednesday. In similar fashion to the
previous weekend, southwesterly winds will increase ahead of an
approaching front. With little to no chance for rain in the
forecast, fire danger will once again become a concern.

Temperatures will dip slightly again behind the passing front, yet
above normal temperatures and predominantly dry conditions will
likely prevail through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm southwesterly winds will continue through the
morning. Winds are expected to reach 12-14 kts during the
afternoon, with gusts in the 20-24 kt range. Skies will remain
mostly clear, with a few high-level clouds passing by during the
late afternoon. A cold front will push southward across the area
towards the end of the forecast period, quickly veering winds
to northerly with increasing gusts behind the passage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Sunday
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Sunday
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

034
FXUS63 KGID 211116
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
616 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Little change made to the forecast in the short term, which
  includes historic, record-breaking March heat. Highs today are
  expected to climb well into the 90s, not only threatening
  daily records for today, but records for the entire month of
  March. See the CLIMATE section below for more information.

- This heat, combined with expected gusty SW winds, will result
  in critical fire weather conditions across the area today, a
  Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11AM this morning
  through 4AM Sunday morning.

- Tonight into Sunday morning, a strong cold front pushing
  through the region will usher in an abrupt switch to gusty
  north winds...with gusts near 40 MPH not out of the question
  with the initial passage. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH will be
  possible through the daytime hours on Sunday...and colder air
  accompanying the front drops highs back into the 60s for most
  locations.

- The forecast Monday through Friday remains overall dry. There
  are a few spotty precipitation chances, but confidence at this
  point is low, so chances remain around 20 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently...

Been another night of quiet conditions anchored across the
forecast area...and outside of a few patches of upper level
clouds, skies remain mostly clear. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place
across the Central Plains, set up between high pressure centered
over the Desert SW/northward ridging and broad troughing along
the East Coast. The surface pattern early this morning remains a
weak one across the area, keeping winds light/variable.

This weekend...

Overall, no significant changes were made to the forecast for
this weekend, which remains dry. Satellite imagery showing
that while upper level flow is currently northwesterly, models
remain in good agreement showing shortwave disturbances moving
onto/through the Pac NW will be breaking down that ridging with
time today, with more zonal flow expected for Sunday.

For today, the primary forecast concern lies with fire weather
conditions...and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the
entire forecast area. The current light/variable winds in place
will be gradually turning more south-southwesterly through the
early morning hours, increasing in speed as sfc low pressure
deepens over the High Plains and mixing potential increases
under little cloud cover. Models have been pretty consistent
showing that today is not a high- end day as far as winds
go...but sustained speeds this afternoon around 15-20 MPH and
gusts around 25-30 MPH will be possible. With the upper level
ridging getting dampened through the day, models show the main
thermal ridge axis shifting a touch east...and aided by
increased mixing and a dry air mass, still looking at record
breaking heat and high temperatures for today. Still looking at
widespread mid 90s this afternoon, with the potential for at
least a handful of spots to reach into the upper 90s...see the
climate section below for more on records. Along with the
increased mixing/dry air mass aiding with winds...dewpoints this
afternoon are expected to drop into the 20s-30s...combined with
temps in the 90s results in extremely low relative humidity
values falling into the single digits to low teens. No change
was made to the start time of the Red Flag Warning of 11AM this
morning.

This evening/tonight...relative humidity values look to be very
slow to recover, with it potentially being near midnight
before the entire forecast area is back above 20 percent. This
slow recovery, combined with the abrupt switch in winds with the
passing cold front, is why the Red Flag Warning end time isn`t
until 4AM Sunday morning. Any fires that may be ongoing into
tonight will have this frontal boundary switching winds from the
WSW to the north...and gusts exceeding 40 MPH will be possible.


During the daytime hours on Sunday...the gusty northerly winds
accompanying this boundary will continue area-wide, especially
through the first half of the day...then gradually tapering off
from north to south through the afternoon. Along with the gusty
winds, this front will usher in colder temperatures, with Sunday
highs 30+ degrees cooler than today...topping out in the upper
50s north to mid-upper 60s south. Normal highs for this time of
year are in the mid-upper 50s. Even with the cooler
temperatures, there will be the potential for at least some
spots of near-critical fire weather conditions through the
afternoon hours.

Monday on...

For the new work week...the forecast remains an overall dry one.
Models show generally zonal upper level flow through the week,
and there is the potential for a few weak shortwave disturbances
to push through the region...so there are a few low-end
precipitation chances in the forecast. At this point, the
chances are confined to the start and end of the week...during
the day on Monday and then again Fri-Sat. Because there are
still some differences between models with moisture availability
and the track/timing of these disturbances, chances remain
around 20 percent. As far as temperatures go, the first half of
the week brings rebounding temperatures, with low-mid 60 Monday
to upper 70s-mid 80s by Wednesday...then back down in the 50s by
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Wow, are we getting into RARE TERRITORY temperature-wise on
  Saturday! Separate CLIMATE section below has more details, but
  not only are Grand Island/Hastings likely to exceed 90 degrees
  in March for the first time on record on Saturday, but could
  also reach the mid-90s the earliest in any year on record by
  at least 2-3 weeks!

- Unless/until we see a legitimate pattern change with at least
  semi-meaningful rain chances (MAYBE some hints of this a few
  days beyond this 7-day forecast a few days either side of
  April 1st?), fire weather will surely remain our paramount
  focus.

- As far as forecast changes go versus our previous overnight-
  issuance, probably the most noticeable/meaningful
  modifications were:

1) Northerly wind gusts associated with the late Sat night-early
Sunday AM were cranked up a good 10+ MPH (and probably not
enough). We are now calling for at least brief peak gusts at
least 40-50 MPH, and raw/higher-res model data suggests at least
near-severe gusts of 55+ MPH could be on the table. Obviously we
not want ANY ACTIVE FIRES igniting prior to this frontal surge!

2) In tandem, wind speeds for Sunday daytime were likely raised
at least 5 MPH from previous forecast, with much of the day now
expected to feature sustained speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts
30-40 MPH.

3) High temps were nudged slightly upward (no more than a few
degrees) for nearly all days except Monday, which actually
trended very slightly cooler than previous.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. March
 27):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
Today is turning out very much as expected, albeit if anything
probably very slightly warmer. Under only varying degrees of
passing high cirrus (mostly sunny skies), high temps are on
track to top out 86-92 degrees across most of our CWA, with
Grand Island/Hastings already breaking date-specific records for
March 20th (and at least making a run toward the March monthly
record of 90).

Aloft in the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short
term model data clearly reveal an anomalous/expansive ridge of
high pressure (500 millibar height around 595 decameters)
spiraling over the Desert Southwest, and it`s influence
obviously extending here well into the central U.S. as we reside
under northwesterly flow between it and a broad eastern U.S.
trough. At the surface, although we are seeing occasional
"sneaky" gusts of 20+ MPH, fortunately for the most part
sustained, mainly northerly to northwesterly winds are
near/below 10 MPH and gusts mainly under 15 MPH...holding
critical fire weather concerns at bay.

- TONIGHT:
As a surface high pressure axis translates through, very light
breezes this evening will become established from more of a
south-southwesterly direction post-midnight. In this very dry
airmass, overnight lows temps have been dropping a little bit
farther than anticipated, so nudged down lows very slightly, but
still very mild for late-March with most areas mid-upper 40s
except some lower 40s mainly far north/west.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-EVENING:
It`s still hard for this forecast to believe, but we are
officially forecasting high temps to reach 92-96 degrees across
the vast majority of our CWA, and it`s quite possible we might
not be aiming quite warm enough. Again, unprecedented territory
for March since our modern-day records began! Unfortunately,
fire weather concerns will be increased compared to today,
thanks to afternoon-evening winds sustained 10-20 MPH with gusts
as high as 25-30 MPH out of the south-southwest. Red Flag
Warning in effect CWA-wide.

- SATURDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY AM:
A powerful cold front comes crashing southward through our CWA,
driven by an upper disturbance passing by to our north, the
frontal passage marked by northerly gusts AT LEAST 40-50 MPH
(and possibly 55+ MPH on at least a brief/localized basis). This
front will enter our far northern CWA shortly after midnight,
and clear our far southern counties around sunrise. With
increasing confidence in these stronger winds, hit them a little
harder in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). The "end time"
of the Red Flag Warning (4 AM Sunday) is admittedly a bit of a
compromise between steadily-rising overnight RH and this frontal
passage, as the front will only be roughly halfway through our
CWA by the current expiration time. Low temps aimed from low-mid
40s northwest to upper 40-low 50s southeast.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Although MUCH COOLER than Saturday, we are still aiming for
above normal high temps ranging from near-60 far north to mid
60s far south. Of greater concern are the moderately-strong
daytime winds, with sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH
much of the day but gradually easing up mid-late afternoon as
surface high pressure noses in from the north. Although we
"technically" aren`t forecasting RH to meet our 20% or lower
critical threshold, many places could drop to around 25% and at
least some consideration might need given to Warning issuance to
account for the winds.

Sunday night, light winds gradually flip around to southerly.
This will likely be the chilliest night of the next week, and
lows were nudged down to 30-36 degrees most places.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Another warm-up gets underway, with highs on Monday similar to
Sunday (mainly low-mid 60s), but then mainly low-mid 70s Tuesday
as upper ridging again strengthens. Precipitation-wise, our
official forecast is still dry, but there are subtle hints that
mainly Monday could feature some spotty rain showers (perhaps a
weak thunderstorm?). Something to keep an eye on but
meaningful/widespread rain unlikely. As southerly winds turn
breezy, we`ll have to watch for at least spotty critical fire
weather conditions (mainly in our extreme west for Monday).

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Broad ridging remains the dominant influence aloft. Our forecast
still remains dry, but especially ECMWF hints at some low
chances for showers/weak convection at least near the fringes of
our CWA, so something to watch. Wednesday currently looks to be
the "peak" of next week`s warm up (highs mainly low-mid 80s but
possibly near-90 far west-southwest), with Thursday then a bit
cooler with highs 60s-70s (will all depend on the speed/strength
of cold frontal passage). Although far too early to be
confident in details, we are technically forecasting some
critical fire weather conditions especially Thursday. Our
official forecast carries some very-low-confidence precip
chances for Thursday night.

- FRIDAY:
A full week out so subject to plenty of inherent uncertainy, but
at least for now this looks like our overall-coolest day of the
next week with highs "only" into the mid 50s most areas.
However, based on latest "raw" and ensemble data, would not be
surprised to see these values trend up in later forecasts
(perhaps more into the 60s than 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period, with the main concern being with winds. Through the
first few hours of the period, winds will be on the
light/variable side, turning more southwesterly with time.
Speeds pick up for the afternoon hours, with gusts near 25-30
MPH not out of the question. Wind taper off a bit this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front, and models showing the
potential for marginal LLWS for a few hours as we get closer to
midnight. The front looks to push through the terminal areas
around 08Z, ushering in sharp switch to northerly winds, with
gusts over 30 MPH expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for our entire forecast
area, for a combination of very low afternoon and evening RH
with moderately- strong south-southwesterly winds, followed by
increasing RH but even stronger north winds late Saturday night-
early Sunday morning behind a surging cold front. For the
afternoon-evening hours, sustained south-southwest winds will
average 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH, while RH again
bottoms out 5-15% in the presence of record- shattering high
temperatures at least into the low-mid 90s (likely the hottest
temperatures on record during the month of March for most of our
area!). Late Saturday night into early morning (mainly 12-7 AM),
a strong cold front will surge southward through our area,
making any ongoing fires prone to an abrupt switch to northerly
winds with gusts easily 40-50 MPH for at least a few hours
(perhaps higher). Fortunately, RH will recover upward during
this time, with values at least back up to 30-50% by around 4 AM
Sunday and increasing further through mid-morning before falling
again.

- SUNDAY:
Despite most of our area being 30-35 degrees COOLER than
Saturday, afternoon high temps will still be above-normal and
reach the low-mid 60s most areas. At least for now, outright-
critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated due to
afternoon RH bottoming out "only" 25-30 percent across our area,
but moderately-strong north winds will be a concern with
sustained speeds through much of the day 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40
MPH.

- MONDAY:
Afternoon high temperatures are aimed fairly similar to Sunday
(most places low-mid 60s), but winds will flip around to out of
the south- southeast and should not be AS strong as Sunday`s
speeds, with sustained speeds mainly 10-20 MPH/gusts mainly
15-25 MPH. Minimum afternoon RH is currently forecast to hold up
20-25% most areas, but a few of our far western counties (mainly
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could drop more so 15-20% and technically
meet critical thresholds during the afternoon.

- TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
Obviously the "finer details" regarding fire weather get
increasingly uncertain as we get out this far in time. However,
at least near-critical conditions appear likely in at least
portions of our area each afternoon, with Thursday of overall-
greatest concern for perhaps some outright-critical conditions.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
  overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
  of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE CALENDAR
 YEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TODAY **

An incredible (even historic for March) stretch of heat
continues through today, with both Grand Island/Hastings
airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we
issue official Record Event Reports/RERs) likely to experience
on Saturday the HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MARCH! In addition, we MIGHT even break records for
earliest-annual occurrence of 91+ degrees by AT LEAST 2 WEEKS!
Various details follow, organized by site:

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988         | 96

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 16, 2015
91 degrees......91 on April 4, 1929
92 degrees......92 on April 12, 2022
93-94 degrees...94 on April 15, 2002
95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902
99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013
100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013



-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910         | 95

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 23, 1910
91-92 degrees...92 on April 3, 1929
93-95 degrees...95 on April 15, 2002
96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989
97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916
99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Sunday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Sunday
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion