Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

402
FXUS63 KOAX 182328
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
528 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire danger in parts of northeast Nebraska and western
  Iowa through the remainder of this afternoon. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect until 6 PM.

- Snow develops Thursday and continues into Thursday night.
  Travel impacts are likely (>80%). Highest accumulations of up
  to 5-6+" are expected north of I-80, where a Winter Weather
  Advisory will be in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

This afternoon and tonight:

Strong, gradient winds attendant to a deep cyclone over central MN
as of noon are affecting northeast NE and west-central IA today with
gusts up to 35 mph. The strong winds coincide with above-normal
temperatures and relative humidity of 15-20%, yielding extreme
fire danger along and northeast of a line from Bloomfield to
Fremont to Red Oak, IA, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect
until 6 PM. The winds will diminish early this evening with
recovering humidity, effectively reducing wildfire concerns.

Tonight, a shortwave trough currently over the Great Basin is
forecast to move into the central High Plains while an associated
surface low shifts from northeast CO into central KS.


Thursday and Thursday night:

The above-mentioned shortwave trough is forecast to move
through the mid-MO Valley Thursday before forming a closed low
over IA Thursday evening into Thursday night. The surface low
will remain to our south, reaching the Kansas City area by
midday, and northeast MO by Thursday evening. The track of the
surface low will allow for an increasingly cold air mass to
overspread the area Thursday, coincident with strengthening
frontogentical forcing. Those processes will yield the development
of a snow band across the northern half of our area, with still
a fair amount of model variability in exactly where the band
will setup.

Ground temperatures currently in the 40s and an initially dry
low-level air mass will have to be overcome before snow begins
to accumulate. However, the presence of weak conditional
symmetric instability will support locally high snow rates with
the 12z HREF indicating rates approach 1"/hour from late
morning into early evening across portions of northeast NE and
west-central IA. Storm-total snow up to 5-6+" appears possible
within the core of the snow band with decreasing amounts on
either side of it. In addition to the snow, north winds of 15-20
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph will result in visibilities being
reduced to less than half a mile at some locations due to
falling/blowing snow. The visibility reductions coupled with
snow-covered roads will make travel hazardous for some locations
north of I-80, especially during higher traffic volume periods
Thursday afternoon/early evening.

Along I-80, temperatures are expected to hover in the low/mid
30s Thursday afternoon, resulting in much of the snow melting
upon contact with the ground. Some minor accumulations appear
possible Thursday evening, once temperatures begin to cool more.
An interesting, alternate scenario is depicted by the 18z run
of the HRRR, which shows the heavy snow band developing much
closer to I-80. We are keeping an eye on model trends.

Given the continued uncertainty in the specific location of the
snow band, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued generally
along north of a David City to Fremont to Missouri Valley line.
Portions of the Advisory may eventually need to be upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning once confidence in the snow band location
increases.

The snow is expected to taper off from west to east Thursday
night.


Friday into early next week:

The 12z global models continue to indicate another mid-level
disturbance moving through the central Plains Friday night,
potentially supporting some light snow across portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA. Any accumulations are expected to
be light. Otherwise, daytime temperatures are expected to hover
mainly in the 30s Friday through the Monday with readings
potentially warming into the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winds are the main concern for the first 18 hours of the TAF
period, with speeds starting out slow before gusts return and
directions become northeasterly by 06-10z. Winds will gradually
shift through 18z to become northwesterly with some gusts of
25-30 kts at their strongest during the afternoon hours. Of
greater concern are IFR to LIFR conditions (driven by low
visibilities), brought by the arrival of snow to all three
terminals. Latest short-term models have slid southward, and
currently affect all three terminals, but KOFK/KLNK moreso than
KLNK as it lingers past 06z tomorrow night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015-017-018-032>034-044-045.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
     for NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050-051.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight CST
     Thursday night for NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-080.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
     for IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

095
FXUS63 KGID 182354
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
554 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry air remains in place today, but winds will be
  lighter. Consequently, still seeing elevated to near-critical
  fire danger through this evening, but not as bad as yesterday.

- Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory
  for Thursday/Thursday evening along and north of Hwy 92.
  Expecting generally 2-5 inches of snow across advisory area,
  combined with northwest winds of 20-25 mph gusting 30-40 MPH.
  Not much snow expected south of I-80 (Around 1" or less)

- Another weak, quick-hitting disturbance may bring light snow
  accumulations (around 1", or less) further S to the rest of
  the forecast area Friday PM into Saturday AM.

- Cool Friday-Sunday (mainly 30s Nebraska, lower 40s Kansas).
  Pattern moderates next week with warmer 50s and 60s by Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Rest of Today...
RH values will remain very low this afternoon and early evening
until we start cooling off around sunset. At 2 PM this afternoon
the RH values at most locations were between 15 and 20 percent,
which may allow any sparks to easily turn into fires. Thankfully
the wind is much lighter today and only 10-20 mph. Consequently,
we do not need any Red Flag Warnings today.

Tonight...
A strong cold front will begin sinking south across
the forecast area this evening, mainly after 6 PM. This will
turn the winds from southerly to northeasterly. We will have
cold air advection all night long and especially during the day
on Thursday. The northeasterly winds will increase and shift to
northerly Thursday morning and then eventually northwesterly by
Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected around mid-
day on Thursday at 20-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Again most of the snow >1-2" is expected north of I-80 and
especially along and north of Hwy 92 (2-5"). Things could still
shift a bit, but right now areas south of I-80 across southern
Nebraska look like only a trace to around 1". Little to no snow
is currently expected across north central Kansas.

Our official forecast indicating 5" amounts across our north
leans closer to the highest 10% amounts (7-8"). The lower end,
lowest 10% ensemble amounts in the Ord area are only around 1".
Experience tells me that these high end amounts are overdoing it
for most locations and that the more accurate forecast for our
northern higher end amounts will be (3-5"). Therefore, went with
a Winter Weather Advisory rather than a Winter Storm Warning.
Although 3-5" of snow north of Hwy 92 along with strong winds
will make for some pretty difficult travel by Thursday
afternoon.

Timing...
Most areas will have little to no snow at daybreak. Then we will
see snow beginning in most northern locations during the morning
hours, peaking in the afternoon and then diminishing during the
evening hours.

Uncertainty...
There could be a narrow band of 5-7" embedded within the more
general 3-5 band. If this happens we many need to upgrade a few
counties to a Winter Storm Warning, most likely location for
this would be our northern most counties around the towns of
Ord and Greeley.

Friday...
A second shortwave trough will swing across the central plains
bringing another chance for snow, but this one appears lighter,
generally flurries up to 1", mainly focused on Friday evening
and overnight. Cold weather persists, mainly in the 30s, but
there are also models that keep us cooler, highs below freezing
in the 20s.

Saturday and Sunday...
Cool and dry northwesterly flow will keep highs only in the 30s
northeast to the 40s southwest. However, this forecast is at the
upper end of the ensemble forecast with more potential that we
could end up colder, for example, highs may only be in the 20s
if the colder models are correct.

Next Week...
Monday could still be cool, but a transition day with more
uncertainty. Confidence increases in nice weather returning by
Tuesday and Wednesday as most models bring highs back up into
the 50s and perhaps even 60s. We will most likely dry out again
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Snow and potentially blowing snow is expected to enter the
terminal sites between 12-18z Thursday. This snow is expected to
impact ceilings and visibilities down to IFR to low end MVFR
categories after 18z. Light winds tonight will swing around to
the north for Wednesday, blowing between 15-20kts with gusts as
high as 30-35MPH expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight CST
     Thursday night for NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion