Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

990
FXUS63 KOAX 271736
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild but humid conditions continue today, with a strong to
  severe storm possible this evening in northeast Nebraska.

- Dangerous heat builds Sunday and Monday, with heat index
  values reaching 105 to 110 degrees in some areas.

- Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with
  occasional evening and overnight thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a
mid- to upper-level low over British Columbia, with amplifying
troughing across much of the western CONUS. In response, mid-level
ridging is beginning to build across the central Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the approaching system, a stationary
front draped near the NE/KS border will slowly lift northward today
into Sunday as a warm front, while moisture transport increases
across the Plains. This will help draw dewpoints into the low 70s.

Cloud cover will be slow to improve through the day, which should
temper high temperatures somewhat. Highs are expected to peak in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Overall, expected a mild but humid day,
with southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph.

There is a conditional risk for a strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening into the overnight period as a strengthening LLJ noses
into the warm front across northeast Nebraska, However, the risk
depends on whether storms are able to develop at all. Model
soundings continue to show some capping, along with mid-level height
rises, which may limit or prevent storm initiation. If a storm is
able to form, isolated hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible. PoPs currently peak around 20-40% across northeast
Nebraska. A few widely scattered showers will also be possible along
the front as it lifts northward.

Sunday and Beyond...

Sunday into early next week, the amplifying mid-level ridge building
into the central Plains and mid-south will bring a prolonged period
of heat to the area. Sunday and Monday remain on track to be the
hottest days of the period for most locations. Sunday highs are
expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100. Increasing southerly
flow will continue to pull a moist air mass northward, with
dewpoints climbing into the 70s, and potentially nearing 80
degrees in southwest Iowa. Evapotransipiration may further
contribute to the very humid conditions.

As a result, heat index values are expected to peak from 100 to
around 112 degrees Sunday, with the highest values favored towards
southwest Iowa. Overnight lows into Monday morning will offer little
relief, remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. Given this, the
Extreme Heat Watch has been converted to an Extreme Heat Warning
across southwest Iowa and the Omaha metro, with a Heat Advisory in
effect farther west. Headlines continue through Tuesday evening
(besides northeast Nebraska, dropping off Sunday night), though
an extension may be needed given the continued lack of
overnight relief.

Similar conditions are expected Monday, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees, with the
highest values again favored across southwest Iowa. Southerly
wind gusts of 30-35 mph are also expected to continue.

By Monday, a shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak rounding
the base of the western trough will help nudge the ridge
slightly eastward and bring precipitation chances back into the
area as we sit on the western edge of the ridge. A very unstable
air mass is expected to develop across the region. Storm
chances will depend on how far south the shortwave tracks, and
whether forcing from that wave, combined with the nocturnal LLJ,
can overcome lingering inhibition from the mid- level height
rises. SPC has placed northeast Nebraska in a Slight Risk (Level
2 of 5) for severe storms, with a broader risk area extending
northeastward as confidence in shortwave track continues to
evolve. PoPs currently peak at 30-55%.

Meaningful relief form the heat is not expected anytime soon. High
temperatures are forecast to remain in the 90s through the work
week, approaching the triple digits again by the holiday weekend.
Heat index values generally remain in the 95 to 105 degree
range and overnight lows in the 70s. Nightly storm chances of
30-60% continue through at least Thursday as the nocturnal LLJ
feeds moisture and elevated instability into the region along
the edge of the ridge. Any convection could locally temper the
heat through cloud cover and outflow, but the broader hot and
humid pattern is expected to persist through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions prevail late this morning across the
terminals as a thick deck of low-level clouds remain in place
around FL010-015, with the lowest ceilings generally across
southeast Nebraska. Ceilings should gradually lift and scatter
from south to north this afternoon into this evening, allowing
for periods of VFR. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
to redevelop tonight at KOMA and KOFK as the low cloud deck
shifts north and settles back into the area. Conditions should
improve back to VFR Sunday morning as the cloud shield departs.
Winds will remain out of the southeast, increasing to sustained
speeds of 12-16 kts with gusts of 22-24 kts through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-
     034-044-045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-
     055.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

586
FXUS63 KGID 272143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
443 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect for a few of our
  east/southeast counties from 1PM until 10PM Sunday.

- Highs Sunday are expected to peak in the 90s with a few
  isolated places in the low 100s (mainly areas near and south
  of the state line). Heat index values will peak between 95-106
  degrees.

- Highs The rest of the week will mainly keep between the upper
  80s to low 100s.

- The next precipitation chances will come Monday night (25-50%
  chances), Tuesday night (30-60% chances) and Wednesday night
  (10-30% chances).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026


Temperatures this afternoon have made a considerable leap up to the
80s across areas that have seen some clearing within the low-level
stratus. The presence of breezy southeasterly winds have also helped
advect in the warmer and moist airmass today. This warming trend
will be expected to bleed into Sunday as mostly clear skies take
full advantage of diurnal heating in addition to the warm air
advecting winds.

Pattern-wise, the area rests underneath a building upper-level ridge
to the southeast (rising pressure) and an upper-level low passing
off to the northwest (falling pressure). These two features almost
balance one anther out, setting up the upper-level jet right across
the Northern Plains region. Though a few storms are expected to
develop underneath the northwest disturbance, storm trajectories
(tracks) will likely remain just outside (northwest) of the area
tonight.


The Main Story: The Heat Sunday into Next Week

As mentioned above, the main story for Sunday will be the heat.
Temperatures will continue to climb another 10-15 degrees with highs
peaking in the 90s to low 100s across the board thanks to mostly
clear skies. The best potential for temperatures to surpass 100
degrees will be for locations near and south of the state line
(primarily across a few north central Kansas locations). Heat index
values are expected to peak between 95 to 106 degrees, generally
increasing from west to east across the area. The highest heat index
values will be concentrated towards the east portions of the area as
that is where the higher humidity (dewpoints > 70 degrees) will be
expected to lie. A Heat advisory will be in effect between 1PM and
10PM Sunday for counties south and east of a line from Smith county
in Kansas up to Adams and over to Polk counties in Nebraska. Areas
within the Heat Advisory will have the best chance of seeing heat
index values in exceedance of 100 degrees.

The biggest and most recent change for the forecast for Sunday has
been the adjustment of where and when the strongest southerly wind
gusts will take place on Sunday. New guidance has revealed that the
gustiest winds will be more concentrated towards the southeast
during the daytime hours (15-30 MPH southerly wind gusts for areas
south and east of the Tri-Cities). Most of the northwest and central
portions of the forecast area will not see gusts >20MPH until the
evening to overnight period. The gustiest winds of the period (30-
35+MPH) will not come until the overnight hours. These gusty winds
will come as a deepening surface low across western Nebraska
compresses the surface pressure gradient Sunday night.

The full forecast area will fall under at least the Moderate (level 2
out of 4) heat risk classification with areas east of a line from
Nance to Franklin counties in Nebraska and all of our north central
Kansas counties included with the Major (level 3 out of 4) heat risk
classification. The Major heat-risk classification suggests that
any individual without adequate hydration or an effective cooling
source, may be susceptible to heat-related illnesses.


The Remainder of the Week...

Greater confidence now suggests that the heat will continue into
much of the rest of the week. Highs each day are currently forecast
to continue to range the upper 80s to low 100s every afternoon.
Though decreasing moisture content Monday "should" (not guaranteed)
keep heat index values below heat advisory criteria, the possibility
for further heat concerns could still return near the end of the
week.

As for precipitation chances, much of the week looks to be generally
dry, though a few thunderstorms may be possible across at least a
portion of the area Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights. The best
confidence for precipitation will come with the Tuesday night
activity (30-60% chances) with chances concentrated more across the
northeastern half of the area Monday night (25-50% chances). A few
of the storms on Monday night could become severe (Marginal risk of
severe weather for areas north of I-80), although the best severe
potential should mainly lie further north of the area. This mid-week
activity will come as the aforementioned Northwest U.S. trough
eventually swings across the Norther Plains.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Current IFR conditions at KGRI and low-end MVFR conditions at
KEAR are expected to return back to VFR conditions soon (within
1-3 hours or before 21z). Clouds, just south of the terminals,
have continued to scatter across the last few hours. The same is
expected to soon take place at KEAR/KGRI. VFR conditions will
likely (80% chance) retain across the rest of the 18z TAF
period.

The only other aviation impacts will be the presence of
34-45kts of LLWS between 4-12z. Winds today out of the southeast
this afternoon blowing near 15kts and gusting as high as
20-30kts will continue for much of the evening and a majority
of the night. Winds late tonight into Sunday morning will turn
more southerly with gusts expected to drop off.

No precipitation is expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ049-063-064-
     075>077-085>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion