23°F
Updated:
12/11/2019
08:30:00am

Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
000 FXUS63 KOAX 111130 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 530 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 .Summary: Temperatures will slowly moderate into Friday with another arctic intrusion forecast this weekend. Best precipitation chances will be Friday afternoon into evening (rain->snow transition), and Sunday night into Monday (likely all snow). .Today and tonight: A shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early this morning will continue east-southeast into the Great Lakes today in response to the progression of an upstream perturbation from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains. In the low levels, early morning surface analysis placed weak surface low near KSUX with a trailing cold front stretching westward across northern NE. That boundary will advance south through our area this morning before stalling across northern KS. By this afternoon, a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains will begin to draw that boundary back north into our area as a warm front. Given the anticipated movement of the surface boundary mentioned above, we expect the warmest afternoon temperatures (e.g., around 40) near the KS border with lower to mid 20s across our northern counties. Another weak surface low will track east along the SD-NE border tonight with strengthening south winds ahead of it supporting some boundary-layer mixing with lows mainly in the 20s. .Thursday and Thursday night: A quasi-zonal flow regime in the mid levels will promote the development of a surface lee trough over the High Plains. That pattern evolution will support the advection of a warmer low- level air mass into the region with afternoon temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s north to mid to upper 40s south. The low-level warm advection pattern will persist into Thursday night, supporting the development of a light snow band across the northern Plains. The southern extension of that feature could glance our northern counties where we will include low PoPs. .Friday and Friday night: Latest model data continue to suggest mid-level trough amplification from the Great Plains into MS Valley with another surge of arctic air spilling south through the north-central states. The arrival of the front into our area remains uncertain with the current best guess being on Friday. So, while we will indicate highs in the 40s and 50s, those numbers could end up being too high if the arrival of the front is sooner. Further, there is a relatively consistent model signal that a shield of light precipitation will trail the surface front, and move into the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Precipitation type will be a function of low-level thermodynamic profiles, but for now, it appears that a rain->mix->snow transition is the most probable scenario. .Saturday and Saturday night: Notably colder temperatures are expected owing to the passage of the arctic front. Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits. .Sunday and Monday: A subtropical-branch shortwave trough is forecast to amplify over the southern Rockies and southern Plains before tracking into the mid MS Valley. This will be a system to watch as some model solutions suggest the northern extension of the associated precipitation shield (which would be snow) overspreading our area in the Sunday night-Monday timeframe. Temperatures will remain below normal. .Tuesday and Wednesday: Building mid-level heights and a westerly, downslope wind component in the low levels would suggest dry conditions with moderating temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 VFR conditions will prevail for the forecast period. Winds will shift clockwise from the northwest and become predominately southeasterly by 21Z. Low level wind shear will likely be a concern at the end of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Fajman
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
021 FXUS63 KGID 110920 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 320 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Satellite and observations have a few mid and high clouds moving through the area early this morning. The pressure gradient tightens during the day today. Winds aloft are in the 30 to 40 knot range, but do not expect to mix very deep and so have kept winds on the lighter side. Even with the lighter winds, would not be surprised to see a few sneaky gusts during the afternoon. Clouds will be increasing a little during the afternoon as the south winds bring an increase in moisture. Still will only be partly cloudy. There is warm air advection and temperatures will be warmer than yesterday. The warm advection continues tonight and expect warmer temperatures through the night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 The period Thursday through Friday should continue to be dry. There is a weak cold front through the area Thursday morning but not expecting there to be any precipitation. Even with the front moving through temperatures will be warmer on Thursday and Friday. An upper level wave will move into the area Friday night along with another cold front. The models have some light precipitation, mainly in the northern part of the area. Saturday should be colder with a break in the precipitation. Another wave moves into the area Saturday night and there will be another chance for some snow. This should be mostly later at night and in the west. The main upper level wave will move into the Plains during the day Sunday. The trend with this system has been a little slower and further to the south so snow chances are a little later in the day Sunday and into Sunday evening with the better chances to the south. The precipitation lingers into Monday before moving out. Tuesday should be dry again and temperatures will rebound a little. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday) Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds are not expected to be strong at the surface, but there could be some stronger winds aloft and have some low level wind shear. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...JCB
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