Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

986
FXUS63 KOAX 061913
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
113 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will impact the region today and tonight,
  bringing the potential for a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms to the southeastern part of the CWA.

- Wintry precipitation will also impact the forecast area today
  into tonight. Expect the potential for slick roads.

- A gradual warmup is expected over the weekend and into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper trough slightly to the
northeast of the Four Corners region and southwest flow over eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa. A cold front continues pushing across the OAX
CWA this afternoon, bringing northwest winds and colder air into the
region. Ahead of the front, temperatures have made it into the 60s
and 70s. Behind the front, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
40s.

Regarding the severe weather potential for this afternoon/evening:
The main area of concern will be for areas ahead of the front,
where instability is decent and ML lapse rates are 7+ C/km.
There is still a bit of uncertainty over where this will set
up. The cold front has been moving at a good clip through the
area today. Right now, extreme southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa would potentially see the best shot at having
large hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado. CAMs are
showing the possibility of a few post- frontal storms developing
in the cooler air. While a couple of these may become strong to
severe, the further away from the front it becomes, the less
likely this will hold true.

Regarding the winter weather potential for today/tonight: fog and
stratus remain entrenched across northern Nebraska this afternoon.
We are looking at the possibility for some freezing rain or possibly
freezing drizzle to develop later this afternoon into this evening.
Temperatures will continue to fall, leading to the potential for
precipitation leaving a light glaze on surfaces. Flash freeze
conditions may also occur. Several counties across northeastern
Nebraska were put into a Winter Weather Advisory which will go
through tomorrow morning. A light glaze of ice to a few hundredths
of an inch will be possible with this system. Precipitation will
eventually change over to light snow with the potential for a trace
to around one inch. On top of any ice on roads, this will
potentially create hazardous travel conditions.

Split flow develops Saturday with the northern split coming across
Nebraska and Kansas. The southern split attempts to recede
southwestward, toward the Baja Peninsula. Expect a gradual warming
trend with temperatures returning to the 60s and 70s by Monday
afternoon. Expect dry conditions during that timeframe.

Heading into mid-week, a shortwave trough drops in from the north,
bringing a chance for cooler weather and precipitation to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

KOFK: IFR conditions persist at the terminal behind a cold
front. Expect winds to become northwesterly by 22Z as post
frontal winds kick in. There will be a chance of a few
thunderstorms for a few hours. Freezing rain concerns continue
for this evening, leaving the potential for a light glaze of ice
on surfaces. Precipitation will transition to snow early
tomorrow morning before the system moves out by sunrise.

KLNK/KOMA: The cold front continues to move to the southeast,
now pushing through Valparaiso and coming through Valley
shortly. Thunderstorm activity will be possible after 20Z with
chances tapering off after midnight. Cold air is filling in
behind the front; however, precipitation is currently expected
to end or taper off at KLNK and KOMA respectively, that we are
still expecting icing to not be a major concern at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

750
FXUS63 KGID 061952
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
152 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk of severe weather is in effect this afternoon
  for a few southeastern portions of the area. The strongest
  storms (concentrated towards the southeast) may carry up to
  golf ball sized hail with winds near 60MPH.

- These scattered storms will mainly initialize between 2-9PM. Locations
  that are the most likely to see storms of any intensity will
  be for north Central Kansas and Nebraska areas east of
  HWY-281.

- A few areas of freezing rain may change over to snow this
  evening and tonight, potentially depositing a glaze of ice
  and a few tenths of an inch of snow for some locations north
  of HWY-6.

- Beyond the storm/winter mix chances this afternoon and
  tonight, the next and minor chance for precipitation (20-30%)
  lies Tuesday night.

- The remainder of the forecast period (through next Friday)
  will see highs bouncing between the 50s, 60s and 70s. The
  warmest day looks to fall Monday (upper 60s and 70s).

- Near critical fire weather concerns return to southwest
  portions of the area Saturday through Monday afternoon. Winds
  do not appear to be strong enough to provoke critical
  conditions at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main story up front: A few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon for mainly our southeastern portions of the
area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk (level 2
of 5) across a few of our southeastern Nebraska and Kansas counties
(areas southeast of a line from York to Smith Center). Storms across
north central Kansas and mainly areas east of HWY-281 in Nebraska
may develop in 2 waves between 2-9PM. Storms developing earlier on
and along the front (areas mainly within the slight risk area), will
be more likely to become severe. The strongest storms may carry up
to golf ball sized hail and/or produce wind gusts near 60MPH. An
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out along the front (2% SPC Tornado
Risk), though the fast rushing cold air advection behind the front
may keep the threat fairly minimal (mainly only for
Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer counties).

The second wave of elevated storms developing later behind the front
(mainly across Nebraska areas east of HWY-281) will in all
likeliness be less severe in nature, though a few "hailers" can`t be
completely ruled out. In addition to the scattered storms, freezing
rain and sleet on the back end of the system may bring in a quick
wintry mix to a few portions of central Nebraska later this evening
and tonight. Snowfall amounts should remain less than 0.5",
primarily coating some areas north of HWY-6 with a glazing to few
hundredths of an inch of ice and a trace to few tents of an inch of
snow. Despite the light accumulations, slick spots on roadways mixed
with northerly wind gusts of 25-35MPH could cause reduced
visibilities and tricky travel conditions later this evening and
tonight. At this point in time, we do not believe that impacts will
be widespread enough for a Winter Weather Advisory, though we will
keep a close eye for worsening conditions.

What is diving our forecast?: Aloft, we find the area underneath the
difluent region of a Rockies centered trough, forcing rising motion
from mid-level PVA. Pressure falls at the surface completes the
picture with the triple point of a warm front, cold front and
dryline all meeting across north central Kansas this afternoon. The
warm front, east of the area, will continue to move northeast,
increasing instability ahead of the cold front (up to 2,000J of CAPE
across a few southeastern portions of the area). The dryline setting
up across central Kansas has created a tight moisture gradient that
is mixing eastward. These two features will provide the main support
for this afternoon`s severe storm potential across mainly Filmore,
Thayer, Nuckolls, Jewell, Mitchell and Osborne counties. The last
remaining piece of the puzzle has been the cold front that blew
through a majority of the area already today. This influx of cooler
air near the surface will set the stage up for wintry action across
a few locations north of HWY-6 later this evening and tonight.

The forecast beyond tonight is mostly dry with only a minor 20-30%
chance of precipitation returning to the area Tuesday night. The
upper-level pattern is expected to flatten out zonally, limiting the
potential for am amplified trough/ridging pattern. As result, highs
will remain in the 50s for Saturday then quickly warming back up to
the upper 60s and 70s by Monday. Highs thereafter (through next
Friday) are expected to flip-flop between the 50s, 60s and low 70s.
A cutoff low in the southwest will close in on to the
central/southern Plains around mid-week, possibly aiding in the
development of a Central Plains shortwave trough (reason for the 20-
30% PoPs). At this point in time, this event is too far out to be
able to reveal too many more details. The only other forecast note
will be the presence of near-critical fire weather conditions
setting up across a select portion of the area Saturday through
Monday afternoon. Though areas of critical RH values will likely
file into a portion of our southwestern areas each afternoon, at
this point in time, it is uncertain if the winds will be strong
enough to support critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Pesky fog hanging around the terminals sights currently around
1-3SM may soon improve to above 5SM within the next three hours.
In addition, Low LIFR/IFR ceilings may also during this time
reach low-end MVFR levels, although visibilities/ceilings have
so far been very slow to recover, leaving us thoughts that this
trend may continue into a portion of the day.

The main impacts to the airports this evening will be from the
potential for vicinity thunderstorms for KGRI (22-02z) and a
freezing rain/snow mix for both sites between 0-8z. Ceiling will
likely not improve out of MVFR conditions until 10-14z Saturday
with visibilities jumping up and down as the scattered
storms/snow showers pass through.

Winds today will stay out of the north, blowing between
15-20kts and gusting up to 25-30kts through much of the day and
night. Winds are not expected to weaken until early Saturday
morning as directions become more northwesterly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion