Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

330
FXUS63 KOAX 091915
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue today with a Heat Advisory
  in effect for most of the area.

- A non-zero chance for a severe storm exists this afternoon
  over the area. Better chances (50-70%) for storms are expected
  for primarily areas northwest of a line from Columbus to
  Decatur, Nebraska after 7 pm. These will likely become severe
  with damaging winds the main threat.

- More showers and storms develop late Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning, and may be strong to severe with large hail,
  strong winds, and heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

19z RAP objective analysis depicts a longwave H5 trof over the
western CONUS, while ridging dominates much of the southeast CONUS.
Southwesterly flow remains in place for much of the Central and
Northern Plains. The southwesterly H8 flow has led to continued WAA
and increased moisture transport over the forecast area. Tds remain
muggy at this hour, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s resulting in
a rather uncomfortable air mass. As highs reach the mid to upper 90s
today, expect heat index values to reach the 100F range. While some
low stratus is seen moving east northeast near Lincoln, some
thinning in cloud cover is observed. After collaboration with
neighboring offices and with this being one of the first heat waves
of the year, have maintained the Heat Advisory for the area through
02z.

In addition to the heat, the increasingly warm and unstable airmass
will provide fuel for our severe weather threat this afternoon and
into the evening/overnight hours. Model guidance suggests a sfc low
currently over eastern WY deepening and tracking east, while a
dryline/sfc front extends southward toward western Nebraska. The
environment near and ahead of this feature appears very favorable
for severe storms capable of all hazards. Abundant sfc based
instability of 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg of CAPE with little to no CIN
is seen from BUFKIT soundings, and 0-8 km bulk shear spanning
the depth of the CAPE profile ranges around 40 to 50 kts. This
environment is suggestive of supercell formation, but a few
questions remain regarding how convection will evolve/develop.

Latest CAM guidance still shows a few discrepancies on how this
afternoon/evening could play out. CAMs like the NAM 4km Nest
suggest some potential for storms firing as early as 20z well
ahead of the dryline/front along the fringes of our CWA, while
other CAMs suggest some general light showers in the vicinity.
Should an updraft develop and be able to sustain itself, it will
likely become severe with all hazards on the table. The very
steep lapse rates of 8 deg C/km will result in very large hail
in addition to a damaging wind threat. Low level curvature
observed in hodographs along with 0-3 km and 0-1 km SRH well
above 200 m2/s2 suggests favorable conditions for tornadoes.
Confidence in this scenario occurring remains rather low given
current CAM solutions not really latching on to this scenario.

Higher chances for severe convection are expected after 00z as
initial, discrete convection merges into an MCS across central
Nebraska. The MCS will bring more of a damaging wind threat (75+ mph
gusts) over western into northwestern portions of the county warning
area. If storms can develop ahead of the main linear feature and
remain discrete, these will likely become supercells with the
potential for some very large hail and tornadoes given the already
mentioned favorable low level curvature/SRH as the H8 LLJ
strengthens.

For this forecast update, PoPs remain at 15 to 30% by around 00z
over our far northern border area with FSD, while chances ramp up to
50 to 70% for areas along and northwest of a line from Columbus to
Decatur, Nebraska. An enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather
remains in effect for much of northeast Nebraska, while a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) is forecast for the remainder of the area. A few
showers and storms linger into the early morning hours over
northeast Nebraska at about a 20 to 40% chance.

As we head into Wednesday, the bulk of the forecast area should see
dry conditions aside from our far southeastern areas where some more
showers and storms may develop in the afternoon (15-30%). These
should quickly push east. Highs will remain warm in the low to mid
90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s mainly over far
southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. CAM guidance signals more
showers and storms developing into a line just to the east of the
forecast area, after 00z. More showers and storms are forecast to
develop over the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning and are
discussed below.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Early Thursday morning, there will likely be more redevelopment of
showers and storms along the nose of an H8 LLJ. In addition to some
large hail and strong wind gusts, likely will see some heavy
rain/flash flooding concerns play out. Warm cloud depths approaching
4000m with PWAT values of 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile)
should lead to efficient rainfall producers. Some uncertainty exists
on where exactly the best forcing/location for storm development
will occur so expect further adjustments made to the forecast. PoPs
gradually increase in coverage in the morning, peaking at 60 to 80%
by 09z and tapering off by the noon hour. Temperatures cool to the
upper 70s to mid 80s for highs.

Sfc high pressure moves into the area for Friday with largely dry
conditions and highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Storm chances (50-
70%) return to the forecast for Saturday, and a few of these could
become strong to severe with the Day 5 SPC outlook showing a 15%
chance for severe weather. The active pattern continues for Sunday
and Monday as another H5 trof ejects from MT/WY southeast. PoPs
remain at 15 to 30% these days. Expect cooler highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this afternoon. A
band of low level stratus clouds ranging from 3,000 to 4,000 ft
will slowly track toward the east northeast and may clip KLNK.
Current thinking is that this stratus band will break up/thin
out by the time it reaches the terminal. A stray shower or storm
may clip terminals this afternoon, but confidence remains low
for occurrence. If a storm manages to form, it will likely
become severe. However, higher chances are expected after 03z,
particularly at KOFK when a line of severe thunderstorms tracks
east northeast. Have included -TSRA with TAF at this terminal
given highest confidence for occurrence is there. For KOMA and
KLNK, chances for -TSRA remain at around 20%. Expect any storms
to have damaging wind gusts and large hail, in addition to any
locally reduced visibilities and ceiling restrictions to
MVFR/IFR. Showers and a few storms linger after 06z but chances
remain at 15-30%.

Winds will become gusty this afternoon from the south with gusts
of 25 to 30 kts. Winds turn clockwise late in the TAF period and
remain gusty. Some LLWS overspreads terminals after 03z at KOMA
and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015-
     017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

673
FXUS63 KGID 092055
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
355 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue to increase late this afternoon,
  as activity pushes northeast out of the KS/CO border area.
  There will be the potential for this activity to be strong to
  severe...with damaging winds the main threat, though large
  hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

- Expecting the daytime hours on Wednesday to be dry. Late
  afternoon-early evening storm chances look to focus to our SE.
  Late in the evening and overnight will bring the potential for
  a line of storms to develop near I-80 along an increasing low-
  level jet. Large hail would be the primary threat with this
  activity.

- Forecast dries back out for Thursday and Friday, with periodic
  upper level disturbances bringing additional storm chances
  this weekend on into the start of the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Currently through tonight...

Outside of a few showers/weak storms that work east across
portions of south central Nebraska during the mid-late morning
hours...been a pretty quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data show southwesterly flow in place across the
Central Plains...set up between broader troughing over the
western CONUS and high pressure over the Gulf Coast/SErn coasts.
The day started out with quite a bit of low level stratus and
some drizzle...and while it has taken its sweet time shifting
north/diminishing, more of the area is seeing sun, helping temps
climb. Took a while for those more breezy southerly winds to
spread north across the forecast area, started the day with many
locations having more light/variable winds...which were also at
least briefly turned to the northwest this morning from outflow
from the activity that pushed east across NE. Finally have
those gusty southerly winds across the area, generally around
20-25 MPH. The stratus really did a number on temperatures,
mainly across south central NE...and while there will be some
late day recovery with more sun, much of that area will fall at
least a bit short of expectations. The high dewpoints is still
making for sticky conditions...with widespread readings in the
low 70s.

For the rest of this afternoon on into tonight...the main
concern will be with thunderstorms working their way east
across the area. Activity is already ongoing over the
Central/Srn High Plains, sparked off by the arrival of an upper
level shortwave disturbance embedded in that larger scale SWrly
flow. With that area of 70s dewpoints nosing into much of the
area, no shortage of instability...with the SPC Meso page
showing MLCAPE values around 3000-4000j/kg in place CWA-wide
here at mid-afternoon. Still some capping to overcome, but that
should wane with time as that disturbance approaches from the
SW. Models have remained consistent showing activity working its
way into SWrn portions of the forecast area in the next few
hours...pushing east through the early-mid evening hours.
Basically the entire CWA is included in the Day 1 Enhanced Risk
area...driven primarily by the threat for wind gusts near 70
MPH. Large hail up around golf ball size is also a
possibility...and as this activity moves into better low level
moisture further east, there is a threat for isolated tornadoes
as well. Some of the hi-res models show activity from N-S
through the CWA potentially being broken up a bit, with a more
southern section closer to/south of HWY 6 into KS, then another
more north of I- 80...we`ll see if it actually pans out that
way.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Models currently showing most of/if not all activity being off
to the east of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday...with
the daytime hours currently forecast to be dry. In the upper
levels, models are showing that larger scale troughing working
its with further east with time further into the Rockies...with
another embedded shortwave disturbance swinging into the
Dakotas. This will help push a surface frontal boundary east
through the forecast area...ushering in more northwesterly
winds. This helps give that better low-level moisture a push
east, with lower dewpoints in the 40s-50s currently forecast.
Highs are forecast to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s...which
results in some low relative humidities through the afternoon,
with teens-20s forecast. With the recent rains across the area,
have had a chance to further green up...so while some western
areas flirt with near critical to critical RH/winds, not
anticipating a fire headline at this time. During the late
afternoon and early-mid evening hours...that frontal boundary
provides focus for another round of thunderstorm
development...but at this time that activity is expected to off
to our ESE. Our main concern comes later in the evening and
overnight...where models have been fairly consistent showing the
potential for an arc of likely elevated hailers developing
along the nose of a southerly low-level jet. Some models showing
the jet potentially around 50kts, others are not quite as
strong. Agreement isn`t too bad as far as location goes...mainly
a south central NE issue west of HWY 183, and generally around
or just north of I-80. The SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area has a
small westward back into the area to account for this potential.

Thursday on into early next week...

As we get into the latter portion of the week and start of the
new week...forecast does have a longer dry period for Thursday
and Friday. Models showing generally zonal flow returning to
the upper levels...but also show a lack of notable disturbances
moving through. That changes as we get into the weekend-early
next week, with periodic disturbances returning to the region.
As far as temperatures go, have a little bit of a roller coaster
forecast...with highs back in the mid 80s-90s by Saturday,
dropping back into the low-mid 70s for Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry conditions expected through the afternoon hours...with a
batch of SCT-BKN low level stratus making ceilings a headache.
Area obs are showing ceilings hovering either side of 3k ft, so
both sides could go back and forth between VFR and MVFR through
mid-afternoon. Ceilings should lift later this afternoon back to
VFR. Southerly winds work back north through the area, can`t
rule out some gusts near 20 MPH through the afternoon hours.
This evening, focus turns to increasing thunderstorm
chances...as models show a line moving from west to east across
the forecast area...looking to affect the terminal areas mainly
around the 01-04Z, but could have some activity lingering around
later than that. Along with the precip chances, models continue
to show LLWS this evening into the overnight hours...strongest
out of the SSW through 07Z, then lighter but more of a direction
change aloft through 10Z. Winds just after sunrise look to turn
more WNWrly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion