Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

713
FXUS63 KOAX 131049
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
549 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday morning with
  additional thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and
  evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible, especially during the afternoon and evening.

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday with
  increasing uncertainty beyond this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

After a quiet Friday, thunderstorms return to the forecast early
Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will be in response to
moisture return on a low-level jet impinging on a slowly sagging
cold front. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of eastern Nebraska prior to sunrise.
These thunderstorms will be in an environment that is forecast
to have sufficient instability and shear for the development of
large hail in the strongest cells. A damaging microburst can`t
be entirely ruled out also. These thunderstorms gradually shift
east of the area through the remainder of the morning hours.

There is a bit of uncertainty on how the remainder of Saturday
will transpire. Some of this evening`s guidance tends to keep at
least some weak convection along the cold front into the early
afternoon, accelerating it`s advance southward. Other guidance,
has a lull in activity until later in the afternoon and
evening, slowing the front`s advance. In either event, a
digging trough over the northern Rockies tonight will sink
towards our area by afternoon. This will act to support the
development of additional thunderstorms along the cold front. At
this time, most of this convection is forecast to remain south
of Interstate 80. With plentiful instability and wind shear, a
risk of severe weather is anticipated. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado remains
possible if a discrete cell can remain ahead of the front. In
addition, flash flooding is possible with westerly upper-level
flow supporting potential training of thunderstorms along the
east-west oriented front. It should be noted, that if early day
convection lingers, this could inhibit later convection, so we
will have to closely monitor forecast trends.

By evening, the cold front and any associated thunderstorms will
push south and out of the region. A gusty north wind will fill
in behind the front, ushering cooler temperatures. High pressure
and cooler weather settles in on Sunday into early next week.
Tuesday into Wednesday sees temperatures begin to climb once
again as the pattern amplifies ahead of our next potential
weather system on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening
appears to be our next chance of rain for the area. After
Wednesday`s system, forecast model guidance begins to diverge
and significant uncertainty remains on the exact evolution of
the forecast pattern in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KOFK: Thunderstorms are beginning to move into western Madison
County and will be in the vicinity of the terminal at the start
of the TAF period. Right now, the best chance for storms this
morning will be through 15Z. There is a possibility of a second
round of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the
region between 19Z-22Z. Confidence in this secondary round of
precipitation occurring is lower. With spotty
shower/thunderstorm chances impacting the terminal in the
possible second wave, the mention of this additional chance was
omitted from prevailing conditions for the time being. Winds
will become northerly today, increasing to around 12-18kts by
15Z. Winds become northwesterly overnight.

KOMA: VFR conditions are currently ongoing, but thunderstorms
are beginning to move in from the west. Right now, the best
chance of morning convection will be between 14Z and 16Z or 17Z.
A few storms will have the potential of producing some gusty
winds and large hail. After the first wave moves through, the
terminal can expect a break through mid-day, with a second round
of storms developing in the afternoon. Models currently have
storms developing over the Omaha Metro or slightly to the west
around 22Z, with potential impacts through 01Z. Hail and wind
appear to be the main concerns with any afternoon/evening storm
development. Winds become northerly today behind a passing cold
front, increasing to around 12-18kts.

KLNK: Thunderstorms have developed this morning and are
currently moving into the KEAR area. These storms will continue
to track east, bringing them into the vicinity of KLNK later
this morning. Right now, storms are expected to bring impacts to
the terminal mainly between 13Z and 16Z, with hail and gusty
winds being the main concerns. Once the first round of storms
moves through, there will be a break through mid-afternoon
before the second round of storms. Models are showing storm
development over or just west of the terminal, with potential
impacts between 21Z and 00Z. Hail and gusty winds are the main
concerns for any afternoon/evening storms affecting KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

125
FXUS63 KGID 131130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatter predawn thunderstorms in south central Nebraska could
  be marginal strong to severe with hail the main risk. Those
  clear the area by 8 AM.

- Additional development of isolated thunderstorms is possible
  late this morning and afternoon as a cold front starts its
  advance. The chance for stronger storms is southeast of a
  Hebron to Osborne line, and for just a short period of time.

- Next week starts slightly cooler than normal, then warms to
  above normal Wednesday before dropping back a bit late week.

- Next week is looking more dry than wet with time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The early morning weather map showed low pressure in the southeast
Colorado with a weak inverted trough to the north. A cold front,
sort of temporarily stalled, was across the Nebraska Sandhills,
while southeast/south winds where generally noted across south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Surface dewpoints were
increasing but the deeper moisture remains more tied to the storms
in central/southwest Kansas. Satellite showed mainly clear skies in
south central Nebraska with a canopy of thicker cirrus clouds from
the thunderstorms across north central Kansas. Aloft, the forecast
area is in a quicker flow between an advancing trough to the north
and more sub-tropical flow the south. The result is a more zonal
feel/look to the current upper flow.

The main action for the weather is today, and mostly during the
predawn hours to come. CAMS models have perked up with development
of convection by 3 AM in south central Nebraska as the moisture and
instability surge north on the south/southwesterly low-level jet.
Those showers and storms quickly increase in coverage and intensity
as they will move east/northeast, favoring areas of south central
Nebraska north of Highway 6, and especially east of a Kearney to Ord
line. SPC Marginal risk is worthy given decent mid-level instability
and favorable shear, though we don`t have quite the low level
moisture advection of two nights ago, nor are the mid-level lapse
quite a steep. These storms will be elevated in nature and a classic
overnight marginal to low end severe risk for a couple of hours at
least. One negative could be the convection across southern/central
Kansas acted to disrupt LLJ and moisture, which could lead to less
organization in general. The southern part of the area (i.e. north
central Kansas) seems the least likely area for storms early today,
though we are seeing development already near the Kansas state line
southwest of McCook. That is probably the beginning of tonight`s
weather event.

The models are pretty uniform in suggesting this morning convection
will move east of the area between 7 AM and 9 AM, leaving a drier
period for at least a few hours. The previously mentioned cold front
will start to find some legs late this morning and works its way
south across the area through the afternoon. Behind the front,
expect a stiffer north wind to develop, and while it may be that
much cooler than yesterday, it will be "cooling" with time. As the
front advances, some lingering mid-level instability could result in a
few showers or maybe a lightning strike, especially along/east of
Highway 281. The front is expected to clear north central Kansas
around 5-6 pm. It "could" spark a localized stronger storm for an
hour or so southeast of a Hebron to Osborne line, but confidence is
low in that scenario. SPC slight risk does include a sliver of
Mitchell county though the clear better risk for severe weather is
farther south and east.

Winds will be up a bit this evening from the north but die off after
sunset with drier air filtering south overnight. As skies clear,
lows will well below normal, much like Friday morning, with some 40s
again in the favored area. Sunday is the coolest day of the week
with highs only middle 70s. Look for a mixture of clouds and
sunshine, with more clouds south/west than north/east. The forecast
is currently dry, but in the expected northwest flow, subtle waves
can spring up a few afternoon sprinkles in the afternoon.

The region remains under a more cyclonic flow through Tuesday. By
Tuesday, we should return to near normal temperatures. Wednesday is
likely the warmest day of the next 7 days with temperatures peaking
ahead of an advanced front. Temperatures will slip back a bit later
next week. There are sporadic, isolated rain chances Wednesday
thorugh Friday, so can`t say for sure its dry, but its trending more
dry than wet for sure next week. The next "best" shot for a more
widespread rain/storm chance is likely Father`s Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle,
and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly
winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few
thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to
the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited
thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see
some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being
said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry
through sunrise Saturday.

On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push
through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be
~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas
will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid
afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing
near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely
southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones.
Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become
strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and
0-6km shear 30-40kt.

Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for
Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the
40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High
temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid
70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening
through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over
the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to
reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push
100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager
through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a
more active period again starting the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Morning showers and thunderstorms will move through both KGRI
and KEAR, with KGRI more likely to experience a slightly more
intense storm through mid-morning. Gusty winds with varying
direction will impact both airports and TEMPO groups have been
added to account. MVFR conditions have developed with the
storms in the area. The precipitation will move on by mid/late
morning, but another area of lower clouds and MVFR ceilings is
likely to form along a cold front moving through. Along with the
clouds, winds will shift to the north and gusts to 30kts into
the early evening hours. Ceilings will lift by evening with VFR
conditions and lighter winds overnight at both airports.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion