Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

793
FXUS63 KOAX 120448
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1148 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Knox, Cedar, Antelope,
  Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska for Tuesday
  from Noon to 9pm. This replaces the Fire Weather Watch
  previously in effect.

- Thursday will bring the potential for fire weather concerns as
  gusty winds and low RH values will be in place over portions
  of the area.

- Thursday brings a chance for a few showers and storms to
  portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The forecast period begins with an amplified ridge over the PACNW
and Canada and a surface low over Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Overnight, the low will slide southeast into portions of the Dakotas
and Minnesota. An attendant cool front over the Dakotas will begin
pushing the Panhandle and north central Nebraska. A few sprinkles or
light showers will be possible through the overnight hours. However,
with as dry as the air has been, little to no precipitation is
expected to reach the ground.

Tuesday, the cool front will push into the region. Unfortunately, it
will be bring in some gusty winds and dry air. Slightly cooler air
will move into the region behind the front, with expected highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s in north central Nebraska to the
low to mid-80s for areas along and south of Hwy 92. There remains
considerable concern that with wind gusts of up to 35mph and minimum
RH values in the upper teens to mid-20s, dry fuels, and ample
sunshine, that near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
will be met in north central Nebraska during the late morning
through the afternoon. The previous Fire Weather Watch for Knox,
Cedar, Antelope, Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, which will be in effect from
Noon to 9pm Tuesday.

Wednesday, the ridge over the Rockies begins to shift east. Expect a
pretty nice day Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the region. Winds will be noticeably lighter with high
pressure in place.

Thursday brings the ridge across the area and off toward the
northern Great Lakes. A shortwave trough over central Montana will
slide east across the Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect
gusty winds through the day with a fairly tight pressure gradient
over the region. A warm front will move to the east of the forecast
area through the day with another boundary coming in from the west.
High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 70s to mid-80s
across the region. Dry conditions are also expected, which, in
combination with gusty winds and dry fuels in northeastern
Nebraska may result in high fire danger. This will be something
to monitor for as we get closer to the event.

The other question with Thursday will be whether we are able to get
any strong/severe weather. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to kick off along the boundary Thursday, bringing a much
needed chance for some rain.

A shortwave trough lifts into the region Saturday, bringing a chance
for a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Weekend
temperatures will be quite summer-like, with some models hinting at
highs reaching the 90s in some locations.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast
period. Expect southerly winds to remain gusty through shortly
before sunrise, turning to the west by 10Z at KOFK and 14Z at
KOMA/KLNK. Low-level wind shear is expected to develop around
04-05Z, continuing through 10-12Z at KOFK and 13-15Z at KLNK and
KOMA. A cold front will push south into the region tomorrow
morning, switching winds to the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

181
FXUS63 KGID 112351
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
651 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical to Critical fire weather concerns across much of
  the area continue. A Red Flag warning is in effect until 10 PM
  tonight and a Fire Weather Watch is now in effect from noon
  to 9 PM Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures (10-20 degrees above normal)
  combined with a dry airmass and occasionally breezy/windy
  conditions will result in additional fire weather concerns
  through at least the end of the week.

- Rain chances remain limited this week, with more promising
  precipitation chances potentially returning over the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A noticably warmer and windy day has been realized across the
local area with many locations climbing into the mid-80s the
past few hours. With southwest winds gusting near 40 MPH at
times, critical fire weather concerns are being observed across
much of the area, and anticipate the Red Flag warning to remain
in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A weak cold front is expected to rapidly push south across the
area by Tuesday morning, bringing with it a shift in winds and
a continuation of dry air in its wake. While temperatures may
be a few degrees cooler behind this front, the main impact will
be the breezy north winds that will sweep across the local area
through the daytime hours. These breezy winds...gusting to near
35 MPH...will combine with low relative humidity values to
promote another afternoon with heightened fire weather concerns.

High pressure aloft will then push back across the local area
for Wednesday and Thursday, helping temperatures climb to near
or over 90 degrees by Thursday afternoon. At the same time
Thursday, winds will increase significantly out of the south
ahead of the next system, with gusts over 40 MPH anticipated for
the afternoon hours. As the front approaches the local area,
could see a return to some widely scattered Thunderstorm
Thursday afternoon or evening firing up near the dry line to our
west, but little if any precip is anticipated locally. While
the main upper level low is then anticipated to pass well to
our north on Friday, the associated front should cross the area
bringing with it another shift in wind direction, but likely no
noticeable cool-down.

Better chances for precip then return over the upcoming weekend
as a stronger upper level trough and front reach the area
Saturday afternoon/evening. This system will likely provide the
forcing for more active weather across the local area, with the
potential for a few severe storms not out of the question. Will
continue to monitor, but the day 6 SPC outlook brings the 15%
severe line just a few counties south of our local coverage area
and model soundings indicate plenty of instability and shear
across the local area for some organized elevated storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds (as high as 25-30kts)
tonight will maintain through most of the night before a cold
front swaps out the gusty southerly for gusty northerly
oriented winds (between 10-14z). These gusty northerly winds
will take control off the rest of the period as winds will
blow near 15kts and continue to gust as high as 25-30kts
through Tuesday afternoon. LLWS will make an appearance tonight
as a southwest oriented 40-50kt nocturnal low-level jet kicks
in between 4-12z tonight. Otherwise, VFR skies will continue on
with only a few clouds keeping bases well above 10kft. No
precipitation is expected.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity values are
resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions
across the local area this afternoon and the Red Flag warning
remains in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A cold front will cross the local area Tuesday morning, but
this front will bring mainly a wind shift, with north winds
potentially gusting up to 35 mph behind this front. Given the
dry airmass, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for parts of south
central Nebraska from noon to 9 PM Tuesday, although at least
near-critical fire weather concerns are anticipated area-wide.

Wednesday remains very warm and dry, but will feature a reprieve in
winds for some of the area. Unfortunately, western zones
(near/west of Highway 183) are still likely to see gusts around
25 MPH in the afternoon hours.

Thursday is potentially shaping up to be the most concerning fire
weather day of the week. There is some uncertainty on how warm we
will actually get and how much moisture will advect northward -
impacting relative humidity values, but many areas could
approach/exceed 90 degrees, aided by very strong south winds...
possibly gusting 40 MPH+ in some areas.

Friday is expected to have significantly lighter winds than
Thursday, but still remains relatively warm and dry.

The weekend also has the potential for additional fire weather
concerns as a system moves through the central Plains.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels/Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion