Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

007
FXUS63 KOAX 211107
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
507 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming this weekend with above-normal temperatures continuing
  through next week.

- Small (20%) precipitation chances Wednesday night into Friday.
  Forecast temperatures support mainly rain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

     Today and Sunday...

A subtle short-wave trough over the region early this morning
will continue southeast today ahead of a mid-level ridge
advancing from the Rockies into the northern and central Plains.
On Sunday into Sunday night, a vigorous short-wave is forecast
to track from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, and
eventually through the mid MO Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface,
high pressure currently centered over eastern NE and western IA
will build east today as a lee trough deepens over the High
Plains. On Sunday, a surface low is forecast to develop along
the NE-SD border with a trailing cool front progressing through
our area Sunday night.

Modest warm advection occurring on the backside of the departing
surface high will yield slightly warmer temperatures today
(compared to Friday) with highs in the 30s. By tonight into
Sunday, more robust warm advection is forecast ahead of the
migratory surface low, supporting a continued warming trend.
Highs on Sunday could be tempered to some extent by increasing
mid/high-level clouds. However, the expected surface pattern
typically maximizes heating potential. So, this forecast update
will lean toward the warmer, bias-corrected models, which
indicate highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.


     Next Week...

The 00z global models remain in good agreement in depicting the
amplification of a short-wave over the south-central U.S. in the
Monday-Tuesday timeframe. That system will be loosely phased
with a polar-branch short-wave trough moving through the
northern Plains. It still appears that the precipitation shield
attendant to the southern-stream system will remain to our south
with the forecast remaining dry into Christmas Day. From
Christmas Day into Thursday, the models indicate a secondary,
stronger mid-level system progressing through the southern and
central Plains. By Thursday night into Friday, the models begin
to differ on the track of the system.

It still appears that there is some potential for light
precipitation beginning as early as Christmas Day night and
continuing into Friday. This forecast update will continue to
advertise 20-30% PoPs with the best chance for measurable
precipitation being on Thursday. If we do see precipitation
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, some light snow could
mix with rain. Otherwise, temperature profiles will support
mainly light rain. Given these expectations, impacts to travel
are not expected.

In regard to temperatures, it will remain seasonably warm with
highs mainly in the 40s. We could see some low 50s in southeast
NE on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will
generally remain out of the south/southeast today. Speeds could
increase to around 12 kts at KOFK this afternoon, but otherwise
are expected to remain under 12 kts at KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

614
FXUS63 KGID 211127
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend under mostly clear skies with
  highs today returning to the upper 30s to upper 40s and 50s
  to even low 60s (far west) on Sunday.

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions persist through
  the pre-holiday travel period.

- The next chance for moisture continues to be in the late
  Christmas Day into Thursday time frame, but lack of
  significant cold air and deep layer moisture suggests little
  to no impacts.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are currently favored
  to persist through the post-holiday travel period, including
  next weekend. It may not be completely dry, but the magnitude
  of warmth suggests more rain than snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

If you`re a fan of wintry weather conditions on or around the
Christmas holiday, sorry, I apologize...but this forecast is
not for you. The good news, however, is that there doesn`t look
to be any impacts to pre or post holiday travel locally or
within the region. Granted, for some, this may also be bad news,
for which, again...I apologize. The long and short of it, if you
haven`t already guessed, is that the next 7-10 days look to be
above to well-above average for temperatures and mainly dry.

Modest return S-SW breezes should help boost highs into the
upper 30s east (near normal) to upper 40s west (above normal)
today under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be slightly stronger
for Sun (though still not too bad in the 10-20 MPH range),
which will help to boost mixing and highs even higher into the
low 50s E to lower 60s(!) W. Overall...great conditions and
travel weather for any additional shopping and/or holiday
gatherings.

A weak clipper-like system will track through the Dakotas into
the Upper MS Valley Sun night and force a weak cold front
through the area. This will result in a modest drop in temps for
Mon - though still expect very mild upper 40s to lower 50s. This
front won`t have even remotely the kind of wind we had on Thu
and winds should actually be weaker Mon-Tue than over the
weekend thanks to nose of modest high pressure. Some clouds and
weaker mixing may keep temps mainly in the 40s for Tue, but this
is still a solid 10 deg above normal. Lows will also be
seasonably mild next few nights in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Christmas Day daylight hours look to remain dry and continued
mild (highs generally around mid 40s), but at least low-end
precip chcs return during the evening and overnight hours. Last
several deterministic runs of the EC and GFS have been tracking
the brunt of the QPF just S/SE of the local area, and this
appears to be backed up by ensemble probabilities for total QPF
>0.10" at less than 10-20%. Furthermore, given the magnitude of
the warmth ahead of the system, and lack of new cold air for the
system itself to pull in from the N, think the vast majority of
precip will be liquid. Depending on depth of moisture, some of
this precip may actually occur more as drizzle than rain. Either
way, probabilities for measurable QPF and sub-freezing temps is
very low - suggesting little to no negative impacts. Will
obviously have to keep a close eye on trends - but from a
pattern perspective its just not a very favorable one for snow
or any frozen precip given lack of anomalously high/low pressure
to the NE/S of the area.

Post-holiday travel weather looks to be as mild, if not even
warmer, than the pre-holiday period. There is good agreement in
latest ensembles (EPS, GEFS, and GEPS) for multiple days with
highs in the 50s late next week and into next weekend. Some
areas may even go multiple days with lows above freezing.
Again...quite mild for late Dec in these parts. There are some
modest signals for various low amplitude shortwaves
traversing the region in weak zonal and/or split upper flow -
but similar to the Christmas Day/26th time frame, magnitude of
warmth preceding and accompanying the weak waves argues against
frozen precip and significant impacts at this time.
Perhaps...PERHAPS...the pattern turns a bit colder and more
active around the start of the new year...but that`s still way
out there in the longer range period ~10 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period with little to no cloud cover. Winds will
vary from lgt Srly this AM to SWrly 8-11kt this aftn, then back
to Srly overnight tonight. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion