42°F
Updated:
11/21/2025
11:27:47am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
243 FXUS63 KOAX 211631 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain lingering through this afternoon, mainly near and south of Interstate 80. Highest totals of 0.25-0.50" near the Nebraska/Kansas border. - Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend with increasing rain chances (60-80%) Monday. - Temperatures trending cooler next week with highs in the 30s forecast for Thanksgiving. - Keep an eye on the forecast for Thanksgiving into next weekend, as there are some hints of snowfall, but confidence in exact timing and location is very low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Early morning analysis showed a surface low spinning along the KS/OK border with an associated precip shield extending just north of the NE/KS border. Latest guidance shows mid-level frontogenesis lingering across southeast NE and southwest IA through this afternoon with continued rain in the area. That said, northerly to northeasterly low level flow will continue to usher in dry air, helping to keep the rain rather light and largely confined to areas near and south of Interstate 80. Otherwise, low clouds/fog should slowly but surely push south/dissipate through the afternoon with perhaps a few peeks of sunshine sneaking into northeast NE by mid to late afternoon. Expect high temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 40s. Rain will come to an end this evening as the surface low pushes into the Ohio River valley, with totals of a few hundredths near I- 80 to 0.25-0.50" near the NE/KS border. For Saturday, southerly low level flow returns with a surface low along the US/Canadian border and surface high pressure to our south. This will allow temperatures to climb back into the upper 50s to lower 60s. By late Saturday afternoon, the low to our north will drag a cold front into the area, with northwesterly winds setting up in northeast NE for the evening. However, these will be short lived, with little to no impact on temperature, as southerly flow picks right back up on Sunday while an upper level ridge axis passes through, allowing temperatures once again to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. So overall, a pretty nice weekend for late November. Meanwhile, a cutoff low currently just off the coast of CA will push into the Desert Southwest late Saturday into early Sunday and east of the Rockies by Sunday evening. Associated rainfall will start to move into the forecast area sometime into late Sunday evening into early Monday. Ensembles generally favor sometime after midnight, when 60-80% chances push into areas southwest of Lincoln and then overspread the remainder of the area through the rest of the morning. This rain could linger into Monday evening, though totals look pretty light, with model consensus showing only about a 10-20% chance of a half inch. By Tuesday morning, another shortwave trough/cutoff low looks to slide through the Dakotas with a few hints at some wrap- around moisture/precip edging into northeast NE (10-15% chance). This would likely fall as very light snow if we do get anything, but a vast majority of guidance keeps precip to our north. More notable with this system is an associated surface cold front that pushes through and turns highs in the 40s and 50s on Monday and Tuesday into 30s to lower 40s Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Otherwise, there`s quite a bit of model spread regarding precipitation chances for Thanksgiving into the weekend. The general idea is that the surface front could still be hanging out somewhere in/near the area while some weak shortwave energy slides through and gives us a band of snow. Again, still lots of spread in timing, strength, and moisture availability, with plenty of guidance keeping us dry. That said, there are enough ensemble members with at least some snow that this time period bears watching, especially given the increased travel. For now, giving it a 10-20% chance of accumulating snow sometime Thursday-Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1026 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 MVFR with patchy areas of IFR ceilings continue across southeast Nebraska late this morning as rain showers persist. Impacts will mostly be constrained to KLNK, where MVFR ceilings and rain showers continue. While a few light rain showers may reach KOMA, generally VFR ceilings will prevail at KOMA and KOFK. Showers will clear from north to south through the after, with a return to VFR conditions expected at KLNK by mid-afternoon. Lingering clouds at 6000-9000 ft will gradually break up and improve through the afternoon and evening. Northeasterly winds will remain at 7-10 kts through the period, shifting to southwesterly overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
249 FXUS63 KGID 211131 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues through the mid-late afternoon hours for areas along and south of Interstate 80. - Total rain accumulations will range from 1-1.5" across north central Kansas, to less than 0.10" north of I-80. - Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s. - Light rain possible Sunday night-Monday, with cooler air arriving Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 340 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Stratiform rain is gradually moving north over the area this morning, with the northern edge currently located along and south of Highway 6. Around sunrise, rain is expected to reach Interstate 80, with little additional northward movement expected during the day. Rain will persist throughout most of the daytime hours,for southern portions of the area, with more scattered/sporadic rain along and north of I-80. Rain comes to an end from north to south this afternoon, with the forecast area expected to be rain free by the late evening hours. Rain accumulations of 0.5-1" have already fallen across north central Kansas. Additional accumulations of 0.5-1" are possible for areas along and south of Highway 136. There will be a steady drop in rainfall accumulations across south central Nebraska, with 0.10" or less expected along and north of I-80. Patchy fog is possible throughout the day, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Skies clear tonight, becoming mostly clear by sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. A pleasant weekend is in store for the area. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 60s with southwest winds of 5-15mph. Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. The next chance for rain returns to the area Sunday evening-night as the shortwave trough moves into the Plains. Rain with this system looks to be fairly light around 0.10" or less. Much cooler air moves into the area behind a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest, the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding, which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night. Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon HWO. For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant rainfall in almost a month across much of the area! In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived, however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend. Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything, this system has continued to track just a bit further north, meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the most favored areas will be across our south and east. After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting up across the plains for potentially an extended period of time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: IFR stratus will clear around 14-15z, though some brief IFR stratus may return during periods of rain late this morning. Additionally, rain may result in periods of MVFR visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected during the late morning hours through the end of the TAF period with a mix of mid and high level clouds. Northeast winds around 10-15kts continue this morning, becoming light and variable during the evening hours, becoming southwesterly early Saturday morning as mid-high level clouds clear. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Davis
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