Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

515
FXUS63 KOAX 241029
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will return tonight through
  Saturday, with rain chances highest during the overnight and
  morning hours (75-90%). Rainfall totals are expected to reach
  1 to 2 inches.

- Cool weather continues through Saturday, followed by a brief
  warmer, dry stretch Sunday into Monday.

- Shower and storm chances return early next week. Heavy rain on
  already saturated soil could lead to a flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Tonight through Saturday...

We had our one nice, pleasant day with afternoon sunshine boosting
temperatures into the mid 70s across the region under a weak ridge
of high pressure. However, gloomy weather is set to to return the
the mid Missouri Valley tonight and likely persist through Saturday.
The first in a series of shortwaves is currently approaching from
west, and will reignite showers across the region tonight. While a
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, overall instability will
remain weak at best through Saturday. Substantial Gulf moisture will
remain over the Central CONUS, with PWATs rising to 1.5"-2". LREF
probs estimate a 50-70% chance of seeing more than 1.5" through
Saturday and a 30-45% chance of seeing greater than 2" of rain.

Precipitation chances wind down Saturday afternoon and evening,
ending from west to east. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will be
dependent on how quickly cloud cover clears out of the region. If
afternoon sun manages to peak through, highs will likely reach into
the mid 70s. However if cloud cover prevails, look to temperatures
to remain similar to Thursday and Friday, in the 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday and Beyond...

Another brief ridge will build into the region Sunday, giving us
another glimpse of sunshine and dry weather. Afternoon highs will
likely reach the 70s.

Midlevel thermal ridging ahead of the next trough and surface cold
front will allow temperatures to remain in the 70s on Monday, before
showers and storms return to the region. Longer range models
continue to hint at the potential for strong moisture advection into
the region with this next system Monday through Wednesday,
potentially supplemented by moisture from Hurricane Polo off the
western coast of Mexico. Given the well-saturated soil conditions
and potential for another round of heavy, abundant rainfall, areas
of flooding may very well be a possibility. In addition to
potentially heavy rain, a more unstable and sheared air mass could
lead to the formation of strong to severe storms, as is highlighted
by a 5-10% probability in machine learning guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

One wave of light rain showers has moved through northeast
Nebraska overnight, with another push coming from central
Nebraska that will bring MVFR conditions to all three TAF sites
by this afternoon. Expect the lowest ceilings to move into KOFK
this afternoon in IFR territory, worsening overnight to LIFR as
drizzle moves in with the rain and ceilings lower. As the areas
of moderate rain move in, visibilities will drop below 6SM, and
will likely hover between 4 and 5 mils most of the time with a
few drops to 2 miles at times. Otherwise, southeasterly winds
are set to continue with sustained speeds expected to stay
below 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

054
FXUS63 KGID 241146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Fri night-Sat AM: Our well-advertised very soggy
  48-60 hours is officially underway, with MOST of our forecast
  area (CWA) likely to receive CUMULATIVE rainfall totals of at
  least 1-2", and more localized areas up to 3-4". Mainly
  minor/nuisance flooding is possible especially in places that
  do reach that 3-4" mark.

- Fortunately, the vast majority of thunderstorms these next
  few days should be quite weak. However, there are at least
  limited signals that a few stronger storms (mainly with small
  hail potential) could try developing mainly late Fri
  afternoon- evening primarily in our far southern/southwestern
  counties (not currently "outlooked" by SPC...but something to
  keep an eye on just in case).

- Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon: This should be a
  mostly (but maybe completely) dry period, as we reside between
  primary weather systems but could see some residual light
  drizzle/fog (and maybe not as much sunshine as previously
  hoped?).

- Monday evening into Tuesday: Our next low pressure system
  looks to bring another good chance for widespread
  rain/thunderstorms...with most of this rain likely of the
  increasingly-unwelcomed variety (especially given onset of
  harvest season).

- Wednesday through rest of next week: Unfortunately, there is
  increased uncertainy in latest model data in whether we enter
  a more consistently dry stretch or whether additional rain
  chances stick around.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS INCLUDING
 ANYTHING BEYOND THE FIRST 36 HOURS (beyond Friday afternoon):

- At least in the shorter term of these next 2-3 days, very
  little has changed big-picture wise, with especially today
  looking like about as close to a "rainout" day as we`ve seen
  lately for the vast majority of our CWA, and Friday featuring
  not as much widespread MEASURABLE rain, but still at least
  scattered showers/a few thunderstorms and likely some pesky
  light drizzle/fog where steady rain is not falling.

- As for CUMULATIVE rain amounts through Fri night/Sat AM,
  various higher-res models (HRRR/RRFS/NAMNest) and with support
  from ensemble data (such as ECMWF) maintain high confidence
  that at least a good majority of our CWA picks up at least
  1-2", and with more limited portions of our CWA (likely no
  more than 1/4th of it) pegging higher amounts into the 2-4"
  range. While minor/nuisance flooding is certainly a
  possibility (and is included in our Hazardous Weather
  Outlook/HWOGID)...the fact that most of this rain should fall
  at fairly reasonable (not overly-heavy) rates...not to mention
  the fact that MOST of our CWA has received no more than
  1.50-2.50" over the course of the last month, including under
  1" in most of our KS counties...argues against "hitting the
  panic button" too hard on flooding concerns. As a result,
  there was no serious consideration given to a formal Flood
  Watch, and there likely won`t be unless rain totals today end
  up markedly "overachieving". Of course, this does bear
  watching given the near-record precipitable water (PW) in our
  region by late-September standards.

- It still appears that severe storm potential is quite limited
  these next few days (especially today), owing to weak
  instability/poor lapse rates, etc. However, there remain at
  least some signals in model data that a few stronger storms
  (mainly with small hail potential) could TRY developing into
  our especially our far southern/southwestern counties mainly
  Friday evening.

- In the longer-term, there remains fairly high confidence that
  especially Monday evening-Tuesday will feature another round
  of fairly widepsread rain and (possibly strong?)
  thunderstorms, as a fairly potent upper system swings through
  and unlike this first one also has a fairly well-defined
  surface cold front passage/shift to northerly winds behind it.
  However, there are definitely some uncertainties regarding
  what occur both prior to this system`s arrival, and also
  beyond Tuesday:

1) Prior to system #2 arrival mainly between Saturday
afternoon-Monday afternoon (the break in between main rain
chances): This had initially looked like a decent chance to
catch some sun/warmer temps and dry out decently behind the
earlier rain. However, latest signals are trending a bit more
toward a cloudier few days with possible fog/drizzle issues
(albeit with little if any truly measurable rain).

2) Beyond Tuesday into the rest of next week: Obviously still a
TON to work out given this is 5+ days away, but latest
GFS/ECMWF have really gone different directions in their last
few runs, with the GFS showing several days of dry weather
thanks to benign west-northwesterly flow aloft, while
conversely, the ECMWF tries to stall out an upper low over the
central U.S. through mid-late week, potentially providing us
with more rain chances. Not surprisingly, our official forecast
is currently a "middle ground" with lingering (albeit fairly
low) rain chances.


-- ABBREVIATED SHORTER-TERM DETAILS FOCUSED SOLELY ON THESE
 NEXT 36 HOURS (through Friday daytime):

-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 430 AM:
As fully expected, widespread rain showers and a few weak
thunderstorms have overtaken mainly the northwestern 2/3rds of
our CWA overnight, as the first main/low amplitude upper wave
lifting out of the Desert Southwest/Southern Rockies provides
lift to an unusually moisture-laded airmass by late-September
standards. Low temps on track to bottom out right around 60 most
places.

-- TODAY (through around 7 PM):
- Widespread rain and a few weak thunderstorms will track
  through much of our CWA for much of the day, perhaps most
  impacting central parts of our area with lighter rain amounts
  most favoring our far northwestern and southeastern fringes
  (the latter being where rain will be last to get underway.
- High temps barely budging from overnight lows...most places
  only topping out in the low-mid 60s at best.
- Breezes generally around 10 MPH out of the south-southeast.


-- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
- Widespread showers/a few storms will persist, but probably
  focusing a bit more so in the southeast 1/2 to 2/3rds of our
  CWA and less so northwestern areas. As a result, would not be
  surprised to see at least patchy fog (and possibly some areas
  of denser fog) develop especially in some northern/western
  counties.
- Low temps very similar to this morning (within a few degrees
  either side of 60).


-- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
- Although "true" measurable rain showers and spotty
  thunderstorms will be overall more scattered in
  nature/coverage compared to today, high rain chances
  nonetheless continue, including at least the potential for
  pesky light drizzle and/or fog.
- Fog concerns probably overall-highest in western and/or
  northern counties.
- High temps possibly slightly warmer than today, but not by
  much, with most Nebraska counties aimed mid-upper 60s with
  more in the way of low-mid 70s in KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Currently...

Have had a bit of a lull in shower activity through much of the
day, following some spotty precipitation that crossed over
northern portions of the forecast area late last night into
early this morning. Another wave of increased mid-upper lift is
bringing the next batch of scattered activity in from the SSW
here at mid-afternoon. Flow across the Central Plains remains
southwesterly today...upper air and satellite data showing high
pressure centered generally over the eastern Srn Plains/western
Gulf Coast region and northward extending ridging through the
eastern Plains...while the western CONUS remains under
troughing, with the main disturbances off the west Baja coast
and the Nrn Rockies and other weaker embedded waves. At the
surface, not looking at an overly strong pattern across the
region, as we sit with a large area of high pressure set up over
the Great Lakes/Northeast, and low pressure/troughing along the
High Plains. This is keeping winds across the forecast area
south-southeasterly, with gusts at times around 20-25 MPH. Cloud
cover has been a bit of a nuisance...this morning skies were
dominated by widespread low-level stratus. This cloud cover did
eventually diminish from SSW to NNE (though a little still
lingers in extreme NNE areas)...so while we have had some sun,
this next wave is bringing more clouds right back in...so those
SWrn areas haven`t had the chance to warm quite as much as had
hoped. Central/northern areas still have a bit of time to get
temps to/just above the 70 degree mark.

Tonight through Friday night...

The main story through the shorter term period through the end
of the work week continues with lie with increased
preciptiation chances and potential for at least a couple inches
of rain in spots. Overall there hasn`t been any significant
change in the forecast...precipitation chances ramp up tonight,
and remain fairly high (70-90 percent in spots) through this
period...though it doesn`t look to be a non-stop rainout. In the
upper levels, models aren`t in too bad of agreement in the
broader scale...showing mainly southwesterly flow across the
region, set up between an increasingly dampened and westward
shifting area of high pressure and continued troughing over the
western CONUS as another larger-scale system works its way onto
the West Coast. Models showing a couple of rounds of
showers/storms working through the forecast area...primarly
favoring the evening hours on into at least the first part of
the following day. There remain plenty of uncertainties in the
exact timing...models showing relative lulls in activity, but
differ in exactly when they occur and how long they actually
last for additional activity fires up/moves into the area.

The overall threat for severe weather remains on the lower side,
with models continuing to show not a great chance for better
instability to work its way into the area...keeping heavy
rainfall the main hazard. Looking at ensemble probability data,
the EC ens remain more on the optimistic side for amounts than
the GFS...continuing to show widespread probabilities of 80+
percent of at least one inch over much of the forecast area,
though the most recent run did note a bit of a southward
shift...and still has a decent area of probabilities of 40-70
percent of 2 inches or more. The GFS ensemble data keeps the
probabilities of 1+ inch more in the 40-80 percent range, with
probability of 2+ inches confined to a narrower swath of only
10-30 percent. Not out of the question there could be some spots
with minor hydro issues...but the fact that these totals are
spread out and not all falling within say a 6-hr period helps.

This weekend and beyond...

Current forecast keeps the majority of the weekend dry...main
uncertainty is on Saturday, with how long activity moving
through Friday-Friday night lingers around into the day.
Unfortunately there are still plenty of differences to work out
between models...some are much slower to push things out of here
than others on Saturday.

The dry forecast even continues into the start of the new work
week...potentially through all of the daytime hours on Monday,
but that`s definitely not a certainty, with some models
showing precip already returning at some point during the
afternoon. The better chances look to hold off further into the
evening/overnight hours on Monday...continuing into the day on
Tuesday as models show the next notable upper level system
moving through. Exactly how this system evolves is uncertain,
affecting the timing...the ECMWF is a slower, more organized
upper low moving through, keeping precip around on into Wed...vs
the more open, progressive GFS which clears things out quicker.
Will just have to see how things trend in the coming days.

As far as temperatures go, following 60s-70s forecast for Thu-
Fri (which may be optimistic depending on precip
trends)...70s-low 80s return for the weekend-Monday, with more
60s returning Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Quite simply, this period will feature overall-poor aviation
conditions, with high confidence sub-VFR beyond these first few
hours, as ceiling should consistently prevail MVFR/IFR (mainly
IFR) and visibility will likely mainly prevail MVFR due to a
combination of steady rain showers and/or light fog. Later this
evening-overnight (mainly after 03Z), ceiling will likely
further deteriorate to LIFR. As for winds, they will not be a
significant issue with sustained speeds predominantly at-or-
below 10KT as direction prevails mainly south-southeasterly
today and east-southeasterly tonight.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Although steady showers have already moved in, ceiling should
hold onto lower-end VFR for perhaps up to a few more hours
before then going solidly sub-VFR through essentially the
remainder of the period. Have tried to keep things relatively
straightforward by following the most-typically-reliable model
guidance, which all but insists on IFR ceiling becoming
entrenched by mid-late morning at the latest, and then
eventually LIFR coming into play mainly after 04Z. Visibility-
wise, have overall-lower confidence that it will truly be sub-
VFR as consistently as TAFs indicate, but with much of
especially the daytime hours likely to feature rather
consistent/steady rain showers and the likelihood for light fog
to materialize during any possible drier periods (especially
tonight), felt that prevailing MVFR seemed reasonable.

As for precipitation itself, it could theoretically rain at
almost any point during the period, and have either prevailing
-SHRA groups or PROB30 indicated nearly the entire time.
 However, general consensus of latest models is that the most
 persistent rain will fall today into early evening, so have
 focused prevailing rain prior to 04Z. While a rogue lightning
 strike or two cannot be ruled out, actual thunderstorm activity
 should be quite minimal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR SEPT. 24 POSSIBLE AT GRAND
  ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

Existing daily (calendar day) rainfall records for Sept. 24 at
Grand Island/Hastings airports (the two NWS-maintained sensors
for which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs) are
fairly "weak" compared to existing records for most other
September days. As a result, we are calling for both locations
to have a fairly decent (albeit not guaranteed) chance to break
the following records today:


EXISTING DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR SEPT. 24:
Grand Island, NE (GRI)
0.84" in 1960
---------------
Hastings, NE (HSI)
1.10" in 1970/1910

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion