Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

068
FXUS63 KOAX 051729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated storm or two could be possible this afternoon and
  evening.

- Near-average July temperatures continue this week, with
  periodic thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Friday.

- We could see a return of excessive heat next weekend and
  beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today...

Quiet weather remained over the region today. Patchy dense fog
developed early this morning, but the majority quickly dissipated
with the rising sun. Some haze lingered across the region with the
smoke leftover by last night`s fireworks. By noon, temperatures had
reached the upper 70s and low 80s, and are expected to peak in the
mid to upper 80s this afternoon. A shortwave that was responsible
for bringing a weakening cluster of convection through western Iowa
early this morning could help ignite a few isolated showers and
storms across the forecast area this afternoon/evening during peak
heating. Severe storms appear unlikely at this time. There`s an
outside chance for a weak funnel or two again this afternoon,
with enhanced stretching potential increasing out of South
Dakota into eastern Nebraska. Thankfully, in the small chance
that one does form (

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

744
FXUS63 KGID 051942
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and Seasonal for the first half of the work week.

- Best potential for additional precipitation Wednesday -
  Friday, with Wednesday having the highest potential (30-60%)
  chance.

- Indications that Temperatures will heating up beginning next weekend,
  with extreme heat possible the week of July 12th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The first part of the work-week is seasonal and dry.
Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area. Upper ridging will build in to the Central
Plains from the Four Corners region for the first half of the
work-week. A strong disturbance moving atop the ridge will break
it down and upper level flow will become more zonal by midweek.


The return to more zonal type flow will allow for an increase
precipitation chances for the second half of the work-week. Lee
troughing will cause a front to develop across the high plains.
Model ensemble guidance indicates that the next upper wave will
approach the area on Wednesday with the best precipitation
potential (40-60% chance) on Wednesday evening into the
overnight hours. The potential for precipitation exists for
Thursday and Friday, but with less confidence. Thursday the best
chances for precipitation look to be along the High Plains
sliding southeast into Kansas with a 25-50% chance for central,
south central and north central Kansas. It will depend on where
an upper level disturbance tracks across the Central Plains. By
Friday the potential for precipitation is closer to 20% for the
area as the upper disturbance moves off to the east. As
this occurs, ridging builds into the west.
During the second half of the work week, temperatures are
expected to be in the 80s, which is near to slightly below
normal for early/mid July.

Moving into the end of the forecast period, next weekend, and
beyond. Much of the model guidance including the ensemble
guidance indicates a potentially significant heat wave. This is
due to a high amplitude ridge building into the intermountain
west. Ensemble mean Maximum Temperatures move close to the
triple digit mark, especially as we move into the next work-week.
Details will change, but current grand ensemble values show 20%
chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday
the 13th, and 40% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100
degrees on the 14th. This period is something to watch for
extreme heat.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the forecast.
Winds will be light and variable through much of the rest of the
day at both terminals before becoming more southeasterly. By
morning as mixing increases, expect winds to be southerly around
15kts. Skies will be mostly clear, some cumulus development this
afternoon in daytime heating, but expect these to be scattered
and VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion