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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


000
FXUS63 KOAX 090428
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Looking at visible satellite this afternoon, we see some
scattered clouds that have pushed south into our area. The
southern half of our area has remained fairly cloud-free with
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s. Farther north high
temperatures reached the low 60s. Northerly winds have picked up
behind a cold front that has passed through our area today. Winds
are currently gusting 25 to 35 mph across eastern Nebraska and
Western Iowa. Winds should die down overnight and we can expect
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temps will dip down to near
or below freezing across much of the area.

The weather will remain fairly quiet during the day on Thursday
with the exception of the northwest winds which will become quite
gusty again during the day. At the surface, expect high pressure
to build into the area, but with an upper level system passing by
to our northeast, expect another cold front and breezy conditions.
High temperatures on Thursday will only top out in the upper 40s
in the north to mid 50s in the south. Latest short term guidance
suggest winds gusting as high as 40 knots during the day, so have
bumped up the winds slightly in the newest forecast update.
Additionally, a wind advisory has been issued for parts of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. With the gusty winds and relative
humidities in the 20-30% range, fire danger will be in the Very
High category. Like Wednesday night, winds will diminish overnight
with lows in the upper 20s.

Weather will remain quiet again on Friday with a surface high
pressure passing by to our south and light southerly flow returning.
Highs are expected to bounce back to the upper 50s and perhaps
approaching 60. Otherwise, attention will turn to the approaching
weather system over the weekend and maybe the return of some wintry
weather (Yuck!). Friday night into Saturday, an upper level trough
will swing eastward. Ahead of the main wave, a shortwave will move
across early Saturday morning and bring chances for rain to the
area. Highs on saturday will be similar to friday. The main system
will move into the area on Sunday. Expect a rainy Easter Sunday
this year with a shot of cold air moving in as well. 850mb
temperatures will drop as low as -10c on Sunday so it is quite
possible that we could see the change over to snow, especially in
northeast Nebraska. Surface temperatures are expected to top out
in the low 40s. There are still several differences in the models
with this weekend system, but it will be something to keep an eye
on in the coming days. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Gusty north winds are the primary forecast concern for the TAF
period. A cold front has moved through the area and winds from the
north have increased in speed up to 25 kts sustained and are gusting
up to 40 kts. Gusty winds should persist until about 09/01Z.
After 01Z, winds should decrease to around 10 to 15 kts. Short
range guidance is indicating that there will likely be some low
level wind shear across the area beginning around 09/11Z. It
likely won`t be strong enough to meet criteria, except for a
couple of hours near KOFK from 09/11Z to 09/13Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Winds are the primary concerns through the TAF period. Northwest
winds around 8 knots at TAF issuance, but increasing to 23 to 38
knots that lingers through about 10/01z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012-015-
     017-018-032>034-044-045-052-053.

IA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...DeWald

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


000
FXUS63 KGID 090633
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
133 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Cooler and continued windy weather ahead...

The pattern aloft reflected a cutoff low pressure system off the
coast of southern CA and an upper trough/closed low over
Saskatchewan/Manitoba and this low was translating southeast
across the plains/Upper Midwest region. A cold frontal boundary
associated with the northern system advanced south thru our
region this morning, bringing a wind shift to the north/northwest
with cooler air advecting south behind the boundary.

Three hour pressure rises behind the front averaged 4mb and wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph were common behind the boundary...these
strong winds will be maintained until evening before subsiding.

Low relative humidity values dropped into the teens/low 20th
percentile across north central KS around midday, but increased
with rising dps this afternoon...keeping conditions at near
critical (versus critical) fire weather.

Tonight...surface high pressure builds southeast from the
northern high plains and temps will drop to the low/mid 30s in the
cooler, dry airmass. Thursday will see a reinforcing shot of cold
air backing into our region as energy translates across the upper
Midwest region, deepening the upper trough to our east. Northerly
winds will ramp up around mid morning and remain strong in deep
mixing to around H75, with wind gusts 35-45 mph common. Temps
Thurs aftn will trend several degrees below seasonal highs, with
readings averaging in the 50s. See the fire section below for fire
concerns Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Wind speeds diminish Thurs night as a 1026mb surface ridge builds
southeast across the Central Plains and temps will plummet in the
cool/dry airmass with lows in the 20s. Heights rise aloft on
Friday behind the departing upper trough and Friday will be the
transition day before the weather pattern becomes more active over
the weekend. Friday temps will remain relatively cool and the
breezy/windy pattern holds on with return flow southerly winds
with gusts 25-35 mph in the aftn.

Over the weekend the upper low in the southwest CONUS begins to fill
and lift out across the Southern Plains as an upper trough deepens
from Canada across the interior CONUS. Weaker shortwave energy ahead
of the main upper trough may produce some light rain showers and
possibly a thunderstorm intermittently heading into Saturday, but
better chances for precip arrive Saturday night/Sunday as a strong
cold front and upper dynamics move in. While we could see some
convection in the warmer air ahead of the front, the latest ECMWF is
trending colder again with the potential for decent/widespread
precip with rain transitioning to snow...and with snow
accumulations possible. This is definitely a system to keep an eye
on for Easter weekend.

Beyond Sunday, little if any precip is expected next week, however
we are looking at a cold weather pattern for several days under
the influence of the upper trough...with temps well below normal
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Any clouds should be just mid to high clouds and thus VFR
conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF valid
period. The wind will quickly increase after sunrise this morning
with northwesterly gusts to over 30 kts by late morning through
mid afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast on
Thursday across the entire area due to strong northwest wind gusts
of 35-45 mph and low relative humidity values in the 20 to 25
percent range. At this time, cooler temps in the 50s should limit
RH values from dropping further, however if temps trend any
warmer, critical fire weather conditions may develop.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Fay

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion