Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

028
FXUS63 KOAX 201930
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern from
  late afternoon through the overnight hours. One to two inch
  rainfall totals with isolated totals three to five inches.

- Slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon into the late evening. Damaging winds and large hail
  are the primary threats.

- There will be a pleasantly mild temperatures for the first
  full week of summer. High temperatures in the 70s and low
  temperatures in the 50s are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Ongoing area of showers with embeded thunderstorms moving into
the western part of the forecast area early this afternoon.
Increasing moisture transport and increasing large scale ascent
aiding in the precipitation development along and east of MU-
CAPE gradient located across the area. Meso-scale models have
been poor in handling overall evolution, with previous 06z ARW
cores being the closest to what`s current going on. Upper level
disturbance overtopping southern Rockies ridge axis will allow
precipitation to continue to evolve, as low level thermodynamics
sync and increase surface-mid level moisture transport. Better
surface-based instability appears to remain further south into
Kansas, with some intrusion into southern Nebraska. Better kinematics
associated with best SB- and MU-CAPE look to occur west of the
area. However, there will be a brief period from 23z-04z in
which there may be just enough mid-level instability and mid-
level shear to produce large hail and damaging winds, west of an
BVN to BIE line.

Heavy rainfall is expected in two areas. An area of along warm-
front and north of a warm front that will lift to about the
Kansas- Nebraska line by 00z, then as the upper disturbance
traverses the area between 03z and 09z, H9-H8 frontogensis
generally along an OLU- OMA-RDK line develops. With sustain
moisture transport, the severe threat will diminish but heavy
rainfall will become the primary threat. Operational GFS and EC
both highlight 50-90% probabilit of 6-hr rainfall above
100-year ARI at 06z and 12z. The NAEFS and ECENS are less
bullish, with probabilies 30-40%. Forecast precipitatable water
values are 80-99% of climatological normals, and with warm-rain
processes becoming dominate, cannot discount widespread 1-3 inch
rains with extreme shift-of-tails rainfall amounts three-five
inches.

Sunday through Friday...

Though there will be showers and isolated storms ongoing
daybreak Sunday, expected activity to move east of the area by
mid-day. with clearing condiitons. Synoptic models attempt to
redevelop showers across northeast Nebraska Sunday
afternoon/evening due to syncing of cyclonic conveyor of
upstream H5 disturbance and anti-cyclonic conveyor of downstream
disturbance. Left low PoP generated by NBM. Otherwise, forecast
looks "dry" through Tuesday when another more potent shortwave
dives out of western Canada. Better chances of strong to severe
storms appears to be Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will be cooler than normal with eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa remaining under the influence of large wave
trough over the eastern U.S. High temperatures will remain in
the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Focus in the first 6 hours of the TAFs will be the onset of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. A large area of mainly
showers is moving into southeast Nebraska.
Thunderstorms/lightning remaining west of the CWA for now. As
the afternoon progresses, expected coverage of showers to
increase, with embedded thunderstorms to increase as well,
especially for KLNK and KOMA TAF which appear to be far enough
south to tap into better instability and surface-based
convection expected to form across the high plains and move
eastward. The convective allowing models have been inconsistent
in convective development overall, struggling with the location
of meso-scale versus syntopic forced development. Thunderstorms
still a possibility at KOFK with a frontogenesis at the upper
disturbance traversing northern Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for NEZ030-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Fortin

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

757
FXUS63 KGID 201829
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight and morning showers and thunderstorms expected
  across portions of the area. Some storms may be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Rain and storms will continue to develop from the afternoon
  into the overnight hours. The highest chance of rain is during
  the evening and overnight hours (60% to 90% chance).

- Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, isolated
  tornadoes, and flooding will be possible this afternoon into
  tonight.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area from 7 PM this
  evening to 7 AM Sunday.

- Total rainfall amounts today through Sunday of 1 to 5 inches
  are expected with 2 to 5 inches in the Flood Watch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Currently across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas temperatures are in the 50s and 60s with light,
mostly easterly winds. Showers are beginning to develop (mainly
across north central Kansas and the Nebraska counties south of I-
80). This activity is expected to continue, expand in coverage, and
intensify with thunderstorms developing (some possibly strong to
marginally severe). The threats with the strongest storms will be
hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH. These showers
and storms may move north of I-80 close to/after sunrise.

Showers and storms will continue into the morning hours and will
likely move/expand further north and east. While widespread severe
storms are not expected this morning, a few storms may become strong
to marginally severe. Storms will likely still be ongoing this
afternoon and may intensify and expand in coverage as the atmosphere
destabilizes. CAPE values are expected to be over 3,000 J/kg in
areas that receive the most sunlight. 0 to 6 km wind shear will be
over 50 knots areawide this afternoon. However, mid-level lapse
rates may be hindered this afternoon by cloud cover and ongoing
convection. Models differ on placement of rain and thunderstorms
this afternoon through tonight so it is difficult to pinpoint where
storms will be at a particular time. It does appear as though the
Nebraska counties in our forecast area will be more likely to be
impacted by thunderstorms this afternoon than the north central
Kansas counties. The vast majority of the forecast area by/around 10
PM will likely either be getting rain and/or storms. Rain and storm
chances at 10 PM range from around 60% to 90%. Some models indicate
another cluster/line of storms moving in from the west into north
central Kansas and southern Nebraska this evening. The rain and
storms are expected to continue through most, if not all, of the
overnight hours. An MCS may develop late this evening into the
overnight hours and push through the area.

Large hail up to around golf ball size, wind gusts up to around 70
MPH, isolated tornadoes, and flooding will all be possible. The wind
and flooding threats will increase later this evening into tonight.
Much of the forecast area is in a Flood Watch from 7 PM this
evening to 7 AM Sunday. Total rain amounts today through Sunday
are expected to range from 1 to 5 inches across the whole area
with amounts of 2 to 5 inches in the Flood Watch. Rain will
continue moving eastward Sunday morning with more showers and
storms possibly moving into western portions of the area Sunday
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms on Sunday have the
potential to become strong to marginally severe with hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH depending on how
destabilized the atmosphere becomes after the storms from tonight.
High temperatures both today and Sunday are expected to mostly
be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This is an active forecast, primarily within the first 2-3 days.
Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms were not well
forecast, with some models hinting at it early today. However,
as the day has evolved, models persist with this activity, but
even with radar as an initial condition, high-res models are
struggling with areal coverage. Confidence in the next 48 hours
has evolved throughout the day today, but there remains
uncertainty in how each round of convection will impact the
next.

Current expectations for the evolution of the next 48 hours.

Round 1:
Ongoing Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to
eventually diminish and move east southeast tapering a bit by
the evening hours for much of south central Nebraska. There is a
signal of some off and on scattered storms persisting in north
central Kansas into the evening and early overnight hours. The
best instability remains off to the west of the area. This
afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Later tonight,
some marginally severe storms could develop with hail to the
size of quarters.

Largely expect a lull in most of the activity during the
overnight hours.

Round 2:
This round is expected to begin just before sunrise on Saturday
morning along or near the Highway 183 corridor. High-res
Ensembles and even the EC Ensemble support this morning
development. This activity will have slightly more instability
to work with than Round 1 did. While widespread severe weather
is not expected, some of the storms could be strong to severe.
This activity will slowly move eastwards through out the day.

Expect a lull in activity after round 2 passes in the afternoon.

Round 3:
This round is expected to develop in the High Plains of Nebraska
and Kansas and track eastward aided by an upper disturbance.
This activity continues to have the best ingredients to work
with for the most part, and the primary concern for strong to
severe thunderstorms. That being said, this round also may be
impacted by the rounds before it, and that brings in some
uncertainty. Round 2 may limit some of the ability for the
atmosphere to recover along and north of I-80, and there has
been subtle shifts in the guidance that is trending the primary
severe threat along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas stateline.
With round 3, the primary threat is wind as a line of storms
develops to our west on the High Plains and tracks eastward into
the evening and overnight hours. Severe winds up to 70 mph are
possible. Hail up to golfball size is possible, but that best
threat is along and west of Highway 183.

This third round has a lot of upper level support, and while the
worst of the severe activity is along and south of the state
line, severe storms are possible throughout the whole area. In
addition to the strong storms, the repeated rounds of rain will
increase the chance for flooding. Round 3 doesn`t linger long,
but various models and ensembles, indicate the potential for 2-3
inches of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Have
joined neighbors and issued a Flood Watch. Did not initially
include Valley and Greeley Counties, but could see them being
added in the next update.

Sunday:
Additional Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, these could be
strong to severe as well, but have focused primarily on today
and Saturday for this forecast.


Workweek:
The remainder of the forecast is active as the Central Plains
sits under zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, allowing each
weak disturbance to impact the region. Temperatures generally in
the 70s for the week, which is below the 80+ degree normals we
usually see in the second half of June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered thunderstorms have exited KEAR and will shortly exit
KGRI. MVFR to low VFR ceilings are then expected through the
afternoon into this evening. Another round of thunderstorms is
expected this evening and into the overnight hours. Should these
thunderstorms impact the terminal, periods of hail, strong
winds, and IFR visibilities/ceilings may be possible. Late
tonight into Sunday morning widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are
expected with areas of fog.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Hamilton

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion