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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

FXUS63 KOAX 201133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Today and Tonight:

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the region today as a
vigorous shortwave currently over central Wyoming deepens and
moves east along the Neb/SD border. Ahead of this, lee-side
surface low pressure will continue to strengthen over the High
Plains region with increasing southerly flow ahead of it pushing
wind gusts in our area to 20-30kts at times. This morning, some
patchy fog is possible across our southern counties, and
especially southwest Iowa where dewpoint depressions are near
zero. More extensive dense fog exists across MO and eastern KS and
we will continue to monitor this morning for any northward
expansion but several models keep the lowest visibilities to our
south and east. Scattered showers are forecast to spread east
into the area this morning and afternoon however dry mid and lower
levels may limit much precipitation making it to the ground. By
afternoon, point forecast soundings begin to show increasing
moisture in these areas. A better chance of a narrow band of
showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, comes later this afternoon
in a north/south orientated band across far eastern Nebraska and
this quickly moves east into western Iowa early this evening. This
will be a better chance to see measurable precipitation but any
activity should be fairly short-lived as the associated dry slot
pushes into the area. The associated cold front with this system
will slide through the area overnight with some chances for
precipitation wrapping around into our northern counties. Gusty
winds will be the primary concern associated with this departing
system into Monday as the surface pressure gradient tightens
around this intense system. Some gusts could approach 40+ mph
Monday afternoon with strong mixing likely in unidirectional
northwesterly flow.

Remainder of the forecast:

Mostly dry conditions are expected until late Wednesday into
Thursday as a mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface
front push east across the forecast area bringing a cooler airmass
into the area and a few rain showers. Some snow could mix into the
northern counties late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning as this cooler airmass slides south but overall any
accumulating precipitation looks very light at this point. Dry
weather returns to the forecast Friday through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

VFR conditions should prevail for the forecast period. Surface
winds will increase this morning up to 20 kts gusting up to 30
kts from the south. There will be a period of low level wind
shear (LLWS) at KOFK and KLNK from 12-16Z. There is a chance of
thunderstorms later today (22-01Z) at KOFK and KLNK as a cold
front makes its way across the state.





NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

FXUS63 KGID 201147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

With the closed low heading into the north central Plains, an
occluded/cold front will swing through our area this morning. I am
expecting mostly sprinkles as the overall environment will be
quite dry. The best chance of any thunder still remains well south
of the CWA, and perhaps farther north under the cold core low. We
have an extremely narrow window for a thunderstorm chance this
afternoon in our eastern CWA. We should get dry-slotted pretty
quickly and our next shot for precip will come very late tonight
as we get some light rain/sprinkle chances as we get wrap-around
on the back side of the low.

For wind, I upped wind gusts a little more toward the RAP late
morning/early afternoon directly behind the aforementioned front
as much stronger wind aloft should be able to mix down.

For highs, I essentially split it between CONSShort and HRRR, and
went with the reasonable NBM for lows tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Continued wrap-around could give us some more light qpf in our
north/northeast for Monday, especially in the morning. Our
windiest period should be Monday morning with very strong surface
pressure gradients. Although fuel status is still "NO", we will
continue to monitor the fire weather concerns for today and
Monday as we are on the cusp of our surface fuels to come into
play. Still looks like we could get some solid 40 to 50 mph wind
gusts Monday, especially north.

A bit of a roller coaster for temps for the rest of the forecast
with perhaps a small chance of precip, with perhaps some light
non-accumulating snow, but overall, nothing unusual for this time
of year, although Thursday would be pushing it for cold air as
highs may only make mid 40s, with a re-amplification of the
overall synoptic pattern toward the end of the extended forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Biggest issue starts out being LLWS first thing this morning
before stronger wind starts mixing down and eventually veers more
west as a surface front moves through and introduces drier air
along with gusty winds. Surface wind gusts could approach 40 kts
on the backside of a low pressure system along the South Dakota
and Nebraska border as the low moves east.




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion