Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

913
FXUS63 KOAX 102322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s, followed by
  some 90s by Thursday/Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger
  on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday
  night/Tuesday (10%) and hit and miss chances Thursday into the
  weekend (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed some weak shortwave energy sliding
through the area and leading to some increasing cloud cover. Could
eventually see a few sprinkles out of these clouds as we go through
the afternoon, but very dry low levels, cloud bases at 9000-10000
ft, and only a shallow cloud layer per model soundings suggest those
would be few and far between. Otherwise, temperatures as of
noon were mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

For the week ahead, expect a general warming trend as upper level
ridging over the western CONUS gradually edges eastward and we see
occasional punches of southerly low level flow. Expect mostly highs
in the 80s through Wednesday before some 90s start to creep in by
Thursday and last into the weekend. Despite the aforementioned
southerly flow at times, moisture will remain limited, with just
enough of a westerly component of the wind to keep higher dewpoints
to our east. As a result, we`ll see daily minimum RH values in the
teens and 20 which will yield some fire weather concerns in areas
with dry fuels (i.e. northeast NE) on days when we`re a bit
breezier. Latest guidance would suggest our highest potential for
meeting Red Flag Warning criteria would be on Tuesday and Thursday
when EPS guidance gives a 40-60 percent chance and a 80-90+ percent
of exceeding 30 mph gusts, respectively. Monday will also be a touch
breezy, with model soundings showing some 25+ kt winds at the top of
the mixed layer, though guidance is in relatively good agreement
that we will struggle to reach 30 mph gusts at the surface.

Rain chances through the week remain fairly low and those we do have
look like they`ll be pretty light if we get anything. The first
chances will be Monday night into early Tuesday as a shortwave
trough and surface low push southeast out of Canada and into MN.
This will drag a cold front through the area with a few pieces of
guidance hinting at some light QPF clipping northeast NE, but with
such little moisture for the front to work with, think it will be
tough to see much more than sprinkles, so keeping precip chances
under 10% with higher chances being to our northeast and closer to
the low. By Thursday, guidance suggests we may start to see a little
bit better moisture return ahead of several bits of shortwave energy
that are progged to impact us through the weekend. Currently the
highest chances are Thursday evening/night and Saturday
evening/night (20-30%). That said, overall forecast confidence is
rather low as there`s quite a bit of spread in timing and strength
of these various waves. Should also note that the various machine
learning severe weather outlook algorithms do show at least 5-15%
chances for severe storms Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwesterly winds with some mid-level clouds and a few
sprinkles embedded within are in place this evening, with VFR
conditions expected to stick through the next 24 hours. Those
winds will become increasingly variable over the next few hours,
as a boundary lingers in the area. We`ve tried to give the
longer-lived directions in the TAF, but expect directions to
vary at times while staying under 5 kts. Southeasterly to
southwesterly winds will take over by the end of the morning
hours, with wind gusts building into the area from the northwest
to 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours and early evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

033
FXUS63 KGID 102337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with daily fire weather concerns
  expected this week.

- Dry to start the week, with small precip chances creeping
  back into the forecast late in the week/next weekend.

- A Red Flag warning is in effect for portions of south central
  Nebraska Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Overall, a really nice afternoon is being observed across the
local area with seasonable temperatures near 70 degrees along
with modest breezes and partial sunshine. A few light showers or
sprinkles can be seen developing across the Sandhills this
afternoon, but with cloud bases near 8 KFT, likely little precip
is actually reaching the ground. That said, did introduce a few
diurnally driven sprinkles to the afternoon forecast update as
Ord did manage to report some light rain this past hour. This
shower activity should rapidly diminish during the early
evening hours, with clearing skies anticipated across the region
overnight.

As the winds turn southwesterly and increase across the local
area Monday, expect a return of of critical fire weather
concerns to the region as temperatures climb into the 80s and
breezes become gusty (to near 35 MPH) as the surface pressure
gradient tightens across the area. As a result, went ahead and
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning earlier
this afternoon for the areas of most concern, although fully
expect at least near-critical fire weather conditions across the
remainder of the local area during the afternoon hours. This
will be the first of several fire weather days across the area,
that will likely extend through the end of the week and
possibly into next weekend.

A weak front will cross the local area Tuesday with little
impact other than a shift in winds and some passing mid/high
level clouds. Temperatures will then really ramp for the latter
part of the week when high temperatures near (or slightly above)
90 look to be in store for the entire area. A small chance for
precip returns to the area as early as Thursday night as there
are signs of the upper level ridge across the area beginning to
weaken. Better chances for precip will likely return late in the
weekend or early next week as both the EC/GFS ensembles
indicate a more active weather pattern returning...a more
promising outlook than what was advertised 24 hours ago.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to remain across the period.
A few clouds near 10,000ft this evening will scatter out by
midnight, leaving mostly clear skies through much of the night
and day Monday. The steady westerly winds will become briefly
light and variable between 2-6z with light southwest winds
carrying through the rest of the night. During the day Monday,
windspeeds will increase as surface pressure falls. Speeds will
approach 15-20kts with gusts as high as 30-35kts possible after
18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Near critical to critical fire conditions expected all week.

For Monday, expect high temperatures to climb into the 80s area
wide, pushing humidity down as low as 15-20%. This will be
combined with southwest winds gusting up to 25-35 MPH, resulting
in widespread near critical to critical fire weather
conditions. A Red Flag warning has been issued for western
zones where fuels remain driest and most susceptible to large
fire.

A front moves through for Tuesday, resulting in gusty north
winds. This will not bring a significant cooldown, though, and
humidity is still expected to dip into the teens in many places.

Winds will return to the south for Wednesday, but are expected to be
noticably lighter for the eastern half of the area. Western zones
could see another round of critical fire weather conditions.

On Thursday, temperatures will soar to near 90 in many areas,
with continued south winds. Friday will feature similar
temperatures, but potentially a reprieve from the wind.

Another front is anticipated to move through for Saturday, but, like
Tuesday, is unlikely to bring a significant cooldown to the area.

The opportunity for rain is off/on low (10-20%) chances Thursday
night through Saturday, but a widespread wetting rain is very
unlikely.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels/Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion