55°F
Updated:
11/7/2025
09:29:17am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
795 FXUS63 KOAX 071109 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and warm today with high fire danger in parts of northeast Nebraska. - Rain chances increase tonight and continue into Saturday night. Highest PoPs of 60-90% in northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa. Some light snow could mix in Saturday evening, but no impacts are expected. - Significantly colder temperatures are forecast Saturday night into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday in the 30s with overnight lows in the teens to 20s. Morning wind chills in the single digits to around 12. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Today: A mid-level vorticity maximum over the northern High Plains early this morning is expected to undergo slight amplification as it progresses southeast through the mid-MO Valley later this morning. An associated area of mid-level clouds over north- central NE will move through our area prior to noon with a few sprinkles possible. Increasing sunshine this afternoon will allow temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s, some 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Northwest winds will strengthen on the backside of the mid-level wave, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely this afternoon. The warm temperatures coupled with minimum RH of 25-30% and the gusty winds will lead to high fire danger across portions of northeast NE this afternoon Tonight through Saturday night: A vigorous shortwave trough currently moving into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest will progress into the northern Plains tonight before advancing through the mid-MO Valley on Saturday. That mid-level system will be attended by a double surface low structure that will move through our area on Saturday. A significantly colder air mass is forecast to surge into the region from the north late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with the passage of the surface low to the east/southeast. Strengthening low/mid-level frontogenesis ahead of the surface low and mid-level wave will support the development of rain showers initially across northeast NE after midnight. Precipitation coverage is expected to increase late tonight into Saturday morning with the highest PoPs (60-90%) forecast across northeast NE into west-central IA. An additional round of scattered showers is possible (20-40% PoPs) Saturday afternoon into Saturday night owing to steepening lapse rates and increased forcing for ascent tied to the mid-level vorticity maximum tracking through the area. Some light snow could mix in with the rain Saturday evening into Saturday night (especially from northeast NE into western IA), though no accumulation is expected. Highest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter inch are expected from parts of northeast NE into west-central IA. Winds will strengthen from the northwest on Saturday with gusts of 30-40 mph possible. The gusty winds are expected to continue into Saturday night. High temperatures on Saturday will be a function of cloud cover and precipitation areal coverage with this forecast update indicating readings in the 40s across northeast NE and western IA and 50s in southeast NE. As mentioned above, a signficantly colder air mass will overspread the region Saturday night with lows in the teens and 20s and wind chills ranging from the single digits above zero to around 12. Sunday into Monday morning: Building high pressure will maintain a continental polar air mass across the region with Sunday afternoon highs in the 30s and Monday morning lows in the teens. Wind chills in the single digits above zero to around 12 are again expected. Monday through Thursday: An initially meridional, mid-level flow regime over the central U.S. will become increasingly zonal this period as a deep trough east of the MS Valley weakens and shifts east. That pattern evolution will support a warming trend with daytime highs returning to the 50s and 50s in the Tue-Thu timeframe. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. A weak disturbance moving into the area this morning is contributing to increasing clouds in the FL090-120 layer, which will linger through about 15z. A few sprinkles are possible prior that time with the best chance at KLNK. Clouds will diminish by late morning with northwest winds strengthening to 15-16 kt with gusts of 25-26 kt. The winds will diminish by 08/00z with clouds increasing again overnight. Rain shower chances increase toward 08/12z at KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
455 FXUS63 KGID 071159 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 559 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A nice finish to the work week with afternoon temperatures returning to the mid 60s and generally modest northwesterly breezes (mainly less than 20 MPH). - Strong winds, cooler temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions anticipated for Saturday. A few showers will also be possible, mainly northeast of the tri-cities during the morning hours Saturday (and possibly again Saturday night). Small pops (15-30%) and low QPF (T-0.01") in the forecast for Saturday AM. - A very cold finish to the weekend with high temperatures mainly in the 30s Sunday afternoon with lows likely in the teens Sunday night. - Sundays drop in temperatures will be brief, with temperatures returning to the 60s and lower 70s for much of next week (Tue- Fri). Monday will likely be a transition day, with Highs only climbing into the 40s to near 50. Dry weather is expected over this period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 A quiet night across the local area as skies started out the night clear with some mid-level clouds moving in from the west early this morning. Radar is indicating some light returns with this cloud cover, but given cloud bases near 9KFT (BBW) upstream of the area, even sprinkles look like a stretch for most of the area this morning. That said, cloud cover will be a bit more persistent northeast of the tri-cities for the next couple of hours, and introduced a small chance for a sprinkle in coordination with the OAX office along our borders for the early morning hours. Once this cloud cover rapidly exits to the east during the morning hours, expect a mostly sunny and fairly pleasant afternoon across the region with high temperatures returning to the 60s for the vast majority of the local area accompanied by mainly modest northwest breezes (10-20 MPH) behind yesterdays cold front. Big changes are on the way for Saturday, however, as models continue to indicate a second much stronger cold front traversing the area Saturday morning. While most of the model data yesterday was indicating shower activity with this front would be northeast of the local area Saturday morning, pops have continued to creep their way southwest into portions of our area. That said, temperatures Saturday morning should be above freezing and any QPF will be minimal, with generally a Trace to maybe a couple of hundredths of an inch of precip possible northeast of the tri-cities, resulting in minimal impacts from any precipitation locally. Therefore, the main concern with this front remains the strong northwest winds and elevated fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon. 06Z HRRR is indicating gusts to near 40KTS will be possible across much of the area during the afternoon hours Saturday, which while very windy, should remain below high wind warning criteria. As a result, kept the previous wording of 45 MPH gusts and possibly higher going in the HWO this morning and upped the blended model forecast appropriately. As a secondary push of cold air slides south across the area Saturday night, brace for well below normal temperatures on Sunday. In addition, while the forecast remains dry over this period, some models are hinting at very light QPF Saturday night, which if realized could bring some flurries or very light snow to northeastern portions of the area. For the time being, the forecast remains dry over this period, although could envision adding some flurries being added to the forecast Saturday night if trends persist. Otherwise, Monday should be a transition day with temperatures moderating across the local area before rapidly climbing back above normal (70s?) by Tuesday and then fluctuating 5-15 degrees above normal through the remainder of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period. Expect mid level clouds to rapidly exit to the east early this morning with breezy northwest winds...to near 20 KTS...anticipated this afternoon. Winds should become light and variable this evening ahead of the next cold front, with a few increasing clouds expected late in the period. Very strong northwest winds are anticipated behind this front during the daytime hours Saturday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SR AVIATION...SR
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