Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

521
FXUS63 KOAX 232307
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
507 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trend upwards through the remainder of the week.

- Rain and snow chances (40-60%) return Wednesday
  afternoon/evening, with some snow mixing in late across far
  northeast Nebraska and western Iowa.

- Highs continue climbing through the work week, peaking Friday
  in the 60s before additional shots at precipitation move
  through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a deep mid/upper trough
continuing to spin over New England, while board ridging takes
further hold across the western two thirds. Stout high pressure
extends from Minnesota down into eastern Texas at the surface,
with a handful of weaker boundaries separating the cold air in
place from warmer, downsloping conditions from the west. Today
starts our climb out of the ice box in terms of high
temperatures. Residual snowpack has proven to be stubborn in
tandem with the cold air ushered in from the late week activity,
but the aforementioned ridge that is moving eastward will help
build low-level thermal ridging to the west. Temperatures over
the snowpack versus those just outside vary by as much as 9
degrees today, with that contrast expected to be only stronger
tomorrow as highs climb over 50 degrees for most of the area
while 40s seem more likely where the most snow fell. In addition
to the temperatures being affected, we`ll be evaporating quite
a bit of moisture into the boundary layer, and fog potential
will increase Tuesday night onward, especially as any wind
shifts move through.

Wednesday and Beyond:

By Wednesday, our mid/upper pattern will flatten as the front end of
a broad shortwave moves through the northwesterly flow. At the
surface, low pressure will deepen to the west and shoot southeast,
eventually favoring a low center over eastern Missouri. As this
occurs, very strong warm air advection will work with the upper
level vorticity advection to result in what looks to be meager for
most of the area. Soundings vary quite a bit from model to model,
with a mix of rain and snow looking most  likely with some chance
for some freezing onto surfaces as we cool overnight. Areas with
rain will have enough warmth in the low levels to melt snow, but as
you approach and push into South Dakota, we could see up to half an
inch. Chances for any precipitation move into northeast Nebraska
mid-day Wednesday, lasting through midnight.

From there, west-northwesterly mid/upper flow is a lock through the
weekend, with the main things to watch being a pair of shortwaves
that could bring additional rain/snow chances Saturday and Sunday.
Between Wednesday and then, highs will rebound from the 40s into the
upper 60s Friday, putting us right back onto the warm side of normal
for this time of year. As we warm, fire danger will also ramp
up, with winds speeds making or breaking whether or not we`ll
push into extreme fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southerly
winds continue across the region this evening. LLWS is
anticipated overnight across the area as westerly low-level
winds increase with an approaching weather system. LLWS ceases
during the early to mid morning as a cold front approaches the
region. Winds will begin to veer towards the west during this
time before becoming northwesterly during the late morning
behind the cold front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

235
FXUS63 KGID 232328
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
528 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bigger warm-up starts Tuesday, with above normal/average
  highs 50s/60s prevailing Tues-Fri (overall-warmest Friday most
  of our forecast area), before our next larger-scale cold
  front arrives this weekend and knocks us back into the 30s/40s
  for a few days (overall-coldest Sunday).

- Elevated-to-near-criticial fire weather conditions Tuesday-
  Friday: Although (at least for now) no outright-critical
  conditions are anticipated, various portions of our CWA will
  likely see elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions
  Tuesday-Friday afternoons (wherever 20+ MPH gusts coincide
  with relative humidity 25% or lower).

- At least isolated to scattered rain showers (perhaps fairly
  widespread in coverage?) will race east- southeastward through
  our forecast area (CWA) Wednesday afternoon-evening (mainly
  after 3 PM), bringing at least spotty rainfall mainly under
  0.10" to various spots. Although not currently in forecast,
  cannot completely rule out a few embedded/weak thunderstorms
  given the presence of very weak (but non-zero) instability.

- Saturday evening-Monday, our forecast is currently "littered"
  with various low-end/low- confidence (20-30%) chances for
  primarily snow. That being said, latest ensemble and
  deterministic model runs really DOWNPLAY this snow potential,
  keeping us mostly precip-free and/or with little- if-any
  accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
 COMMENTS:

- When comparing with our previous 7-day forecast "package"
  (issued early this morning), overall things stayed pretty
  consistent, including: 1) very high confidence in the
  appreciable warm-up Tues-Fri...2) high confidence in at least
  SOME coverage of rain showers Wed afternoon-evening..3) the
  snow chances Sat evening-Monday remain very low-confidence-
  in-occurrence.

- Probably the single-biggest forecast change was high temps
  for Sunday coming down a good 3-5 degrees (more of our CWA
  only topping out in the 30s).

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather for Tues-Fri afternoons
  are currently the only content in our Hazardous Weather
  Outlook (HWOGID)...just introduced this afternoon. While
  forecast fire weather conditions are notorious for getting
  "worse" as they get closer in time (due to a combo of expected
  wind speeds increasing and/or RH dropping lower), at least for
  now outright-critical conditions (overlap of gusts 25+ MPH/RH
  at- or-below 20%) appears relatively unlikely. That being
  said, especially Wednesday (currently projected to have
  strongest winds of the week) and Friday (currently projected
  to be the warmest day of the week with lowest RH) appear to
  be most worth watching.

- Quick peek beyond our 7-day (beyond March 2): Latest ECMWF
  ensemble data supports latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
  8-14 day outlook, leaning fairly strongly toward above normal
  temps and with a less-confident/slighter lean toward above
  normal precip. Latest ECMWF ensemble suggests widespread high
  temps back into the 50s/60s beyond our brief colder spell
  Saturday-Monday.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Mon. March 2):
- CURRENT/TODAY`S WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 2 PM:
As expected, today is playing out as the "transition day"
temperature-wise...several degrees warmer than yesterday, but
not nearly as mild as tomorrow. Afternoon highs are currently
aimed mainly mainly mid-upper 30s northeast half of our CWA...to
40s for most of the southwest half (possibly even touching 50)
mainly in our extreme southwest (Rooks/Furnas counties). A
fairly widespread batch of passing high cirrus has likely
hindered warming somewhat, but this appears to be departing off
to the east/thinning out, paving the way for a late-afternoon
official high temp. Otherwise, at the surface, the main feature
this afternoon is increasingly-breezy southerly winds, ramping
up in the tightening pressure gradient between a departing high
pressure/ridge axis (currently centered over south IA/north MO)
and a High Plains lee trough to our west. The result is
sustained speeds/gusts commonly 10-20 MPH/15-20 MPH
(respectively)...overall strongest in our western CWA and
weakest in our east).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data confirm broad
north-northesterly flow overhead our Central Plains
region...directed between a prominent eastern U.S. trough
(highlighted by the big Nor`eastern slamming the Northeast
coastal cities), and a broad ridge extending from the Pacific
west of Mexico up toward the Desert Southwest.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (much milder than last night):
It will remain dry, but another batch(es) of mainly high level
clouds will spill in from the northwest, promoting generally
partly cloudy skies. Really the biggest story tonight is that
low temps will hold up a good 15-25 degrees WARMER than last
night/this morning, with much of the night featuring steady to
even slightly-rising temps following the initial early-evening
fall. More specifically, lows are aimed somewhere in the 20s
most areas, with a few spots mainly south not dropping under 30.
This is due to the passage of a warm-front, marked by breezes
starting to turn southwesterly late in the evening, and
eventually more "true" westerly between midnight-sunrise (speeds
mainly 10-15 MPH with occasional higher gusts).


- TUESDAY DAYTIME (much warmer than today):
By far the main story is the bigger warm-up (highs 20+ degrees
warmer than today). The one main caveat to getting AS warm as
we`re aiming for will be what looks to be a considerable amount
of mid-high clouds (skies mostly cloudy overall). However, the
presence of a much warmer low-level airmass and also west-
northwesterly breezes will be the main "drivers" of the warm-up.
Kept highs similar to previous forecast...most of our northern
half mainly mid-upper 50s/most of our southern half low-mid 60s
(and even reaching 70 mainly far SW in Rooks County). As for
winds, they look to be a bit breezy, but NOT overly-strong
(mainly sustained around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH), initially out
of the northwest but turning more northerly as the afternoon
progresses, along with a gradual decrease in speeds mid-late
afternoon as surface high pressure noses in from the northwest.
However, a few hours of near-critical fire weather conditions
are expected to develop mainly 11AM-3PM...primarily affecting
counties south of I-80 and on either side of the KS border.


- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Our forecast remain dry at this time, but there are at least
"hints" (especially in HRRR model) that some spotty
sprinkles/very light rain could develop here or there...mainly
within 40 miles either side of the KS border. Otherwise, despite
a surface high pressure axis providing light winds (mainly
at/under 5 MPH), temps should not tumble too far given continued
plentiful mid-high clouds (lows aimed mid-upper 20s most of our
CWA).


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT (quick hit of rain showers):
While much of the daylight hours will remain dry, a fairly
strong-but-fast-moving upper level disturbance will dive south-
southeastward through our CWA mainly late afternoon-overnight.
With this time frame now getting within range of higher-res
models (such as NAMNest), it`s looking increasingly likely that
at least isolated/scattered (and possibly numerous) rain showers
will race across our much of our CWA from west-northwest to
east-southeast...especially between 4/5 PM and midnight. Not
everybody will see these showers, but those that do could pick
up a quick 0.05-0.10" of rain (localized slightly higher). A
spotty weak thunderstorm probably cannot even be ruled out given
perhaps 100+ J/kg of CAPE/instability, but have held off on any
formal forecast inclusion for now. Even without thunder, these
showers bear watching for the potential of dragging down some
"sneaky" gusty winds of 40+MPH. However, even before any weak
convection develops, it will already be a somewhat breezy day
with south-southwesterly winds sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 25+ MPH
at least some areas. High temps are aimed overall-similar to
Tuesday...upper 50s-mid 60s most places...but ranging from low-
mid 50s far northeast...to upper 60s far southwest.

Any evening rain showers should vacate our extreme southwest CWA
by around midnight, leaving the late-night hours dry with
northwesterly breezes and low temps mainly a few degreed either
side of 30 degrees.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY (quiet and mild):
Under broad west-northwesterly flow aloft, this appears to be a
high-confidence dry stretch. These should be somewhat breezy
(but not OVERLY-windy) and seasonably-mild days, with highs
aimed near-60 on Thursday and mid-uppper 60s on Friday.


- SATURDAY-MONDAY (chillier with very "iffy" snow chances):
For being 5+ days out, latest ECMWF/GFS are in good agreement
bringing a cold front (marked by breezy north-northeasterly
winds) across our CWA on Saturday, with winds turning more
easterly Sunday and southerly again Monday (at least per ECMWF).
High temps are currently forecast to check in 20-25 degrees
colder on Saturday versus Friday (mainly 40s Nebraska/low 50s
Kansas), and then Sunday overall-coldest with highs mainly 30s
except low 40s southwest. Very preliminarily, Monday highs are
expected to bounce back up into the 40s CWA-wide. Certainly of
much lower confidence are the snow chances starting Saturday
night, which fortunately (and for good reason) are running no
higher than 20-30% at this time. There is certainly plenty of
time for things to change...but for now latest models give us
little-to-nothing through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with winds
being the primary focus.

A warm front is expected to slide east across the local area
overnight with steady southerly winds near 10 KTS ahead of it.
Aloft, expect modest LLWS to increase across the area this
evening as the front approaches, with additional LLWS from the
west expected to develop during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday
behind the anticipated warm front. Any LLWS should diminish by
mid-morning Tuesday as surface winds increase across the local
area...with westerly wind gusts to 20KT+ anticipated after
24/15Z. Cloud cover wise...expect lots of cirrus on satellite
upstream of the area to filter in across the region through the
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion