Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

898
FXUS63 KOAX 102328
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
628 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10 to 14% chance for some sprinkles across the forecast area
  this afternoon. Otherwise most locations stay dry with highs
  reaching the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Active pattern continues with continued shower and storm
  chances late tonight into Saturday morning (60-80%). More
  development is possible later in the afternoon (20-40%
  chance), and some of these storms may become severe.

- More showers and storms expected for Sunday and the start of
  next week with a continued threat for severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis at H7 shows some weak warm air advection
rounding the backside of a 318dam high. This broad ascent has led to
some weak showers developing over eastern Nebraska into southwest
Iowa early this afternoon. BUFKIT soundings show dry air from H7 to
H9 limiting precipitation from reaching the sfc, so dry conditions
should largely prevail for most locations with only a 10 to 14%
chance for some isolated sprinkles. Highs today warm to the mid 50s
to low 60s. Lows tonight cool to the 40s.

As we head into tonight, should see sfc winds turn more
southeasterly as the 1030mb sfc high pushes east toward the Great
Lakes. H8 warm advection ensues as the baroclinic zone moves
northward back into the area. The broad ascent combined with a push
of low level theta-e advection will result in showers and storms
developing late tonight into Saturday morning. Latest CAM guidance
shows storms firing off just to our southwest by 06z, then becoming
more numerous and widespread after 09z early Saturday morning. While
0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 35 kts is expected, the marginal
instability of 200 to 500 j/kg could lead to a storm with some brief
hail or wind. PoPs remain at 60 to 80% for this forecast update for
much of the area. A brief lull in activity is expected by the late
morning hours with only a few lingering showers. Highs Saturday warm
to the upper 60s to low 70s with gusty southeasterly winds of 20 to
25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

By the late afternoon, model guidance hints at an H5 shortwave
ejecting from western Kansas toward the area as the sfc boundary
lifts northward, helping bring in warm, moist air with dew points in
the mid to upper 60s. While some forcing from the feature may try to
generate scattered showers and storms, CAM guidance does not appear
overly optimistic with this. Forecast soundings for Saturday
afternoon show some signs of weak capping from near H8 to the sfc
for most of the forecast area aside from southeast Nebraska were
that cap may be eroded.

A few of the 12z CAMs try to develop convective cells over the
southern half of the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and into
the evening, but they struggle to sustain themselves, likely tied to
the lack of strong forcing to trigger convection. If forcing becomes
stronger and convection is able to break through any warm layer,
instability of 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg coupled with shear of 30-35 kts
could lead to a conditional threat for severe convection. Along with
large hail and strong winds, a tornado threat could develop if
convection can become sfc based given the good low level curvature
seen in hodographs. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather is forecast for the entire area late Saturday afternoon into
the evening hours. Given the conditional risk of afternoon
convection, have decided to cut back on NBM PoPs of 70 to 90% and
lowered them to a 20 to 40% chance areawide after 19z. Lows Saturday
night remain warm in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may persist on Sunday
morning. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding if more storms
will redevelop this day. Models still show dome differences in
regards to the timing of an H5 disturbance that tracks through the
region. Latest parameterized models and some of the CAMs like the
NAMNest suggest some threat for precipitation across the area. With
instability lingering in the area, a few strong to severe storms
can`t be ruled out. A marginal risk of severe weather remains in
place for much of the forecast area Sunday. Highs warm to the upper
70s to mid 80s up in far northeast Nebraska as H8 warm air advection
takes shape. Southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 mph may lead to
areas of very high fire danger, primarily in far northeast Nebraska
toward the South Dakota border where relative humidity drops to the
teens to 25%, but this will be largely dependent on any more wetting
rainfall we receive.

Monday and Tuesday will see the continued eastward track of a potent
H5 trof from the southwest US. The southwest flow over much of the
Northern Plains will allow continued shortwaves to eject into the
area resulting in continued shower and thunderstorm chances. Severe
weather remains probable across much of the forecast area on Monday,
and primarily the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday and
Wednesday (15% chance). Those with outdoor plans for early next week
will want to keep an eye on the forecast and watch for any potential
changes. PoP chances continue into Thursday (20-40% chance).
Temperatures remain warm for much of the upcoming week with highs in
the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions hold this evening with lower clouds moving into
southeast Nebraska. Initially cigs with these clouds will be
4500-5000ft, but as showers and storms start to develop after
06Z we`ll see cigs lower to MVFR then IFR at the terminals
through the overnight hours. Showers and storms move out by
14-15Z on Saturday, but IFR cigs look to hang around through
much of the day, at least through 23Z, with improvement possible
starting around 23-00Z. Winds out of the east this evening
will be shifting southeasterly with time through the overnight
hours, becoming southerly and gusting 20 to 25 kt by 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

867
FXUS63 KGID 110025
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
725 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered non-severe storms will develop tonight between 11PM
  and 6AM (40-65% chance). Small hail up to penny size could be
  possible within a few of the stronger storms.

- A few areas of fog may develop across parts of the area
  Saturday morning. Visibilities as low as 1 mile will be
  possible with potentially a handful of locations dropping
  below 1 mile at times.

- More limited coverage of storms will be possible Saturday
  (30-50%) and for far southeast portions of the area Sunday
  (10-30%). A few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out
  (Marginal Severe Weather Outlook).

- Temperatures will warm back up to the 70s and 80s Saturday through
  the middle of next week.

- Another chance of scattered thunderstorms returns Tuesday
  (20-40% chance) and Wednesday (20-30% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026


Tonight/Saturday...

Colder air today filling in behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage
continues to stick around for one more day with temperatures in the
50s and dropping only down to the 40s overnight tonight. A broad
1028mb surface high pressure center passing off to the northeast
will help bend the steady 10-15MPH easterly/northeasterly winds
gusting up to 20-25MPH to the southeast tonight and to a southerly
direction for Saturday.

Though there is a 40-65% chance for (non-severe) thunderstorms
tonight, the overall coverage of meaningful precipitation amounts
will likely not spread more than 0.1-0.5" of rainfall across 1/2 to
2/3rds of the area. Storm development tonight will be dependent on
the presence of a low-level jet tonight. The best timeframe for
storm activity will be between 11PM to 6AM. Though the chance for
severe storms remain unlikely based on the limited MU CAPE (500-
1,000J), low-to-mid level lapse rates of 6-8 C/km with a modest 25-
40kts of bulk shear could still support a few stronger storms that
may produce small hail up to the size of pennies. Developing fog
behind the storms overnight will also be possible as light to steady
upslope flow mixes dewpoints close to their saturation point.
Visibilities may fall to as low as 1 mile with a handful of
locations potentially seeing visibilities drop below one mile at
times across the morning hours.

Gustier conditions Saturday from southerly winds blowing between 20
to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH, will be paired with even
warmer temperatures. Though the cloud coverage is expected to
maintain through the day, the warm air advecting winds will assist
in helping bump highs back up into the 70s.

At the surface, a low materializing across the Northern Rockies will
center the Central Plains under its warm sector side. Aloft, a weak
shortwave trough will bring by some mid-level vorticity advection,
increasing vertical instability (500-1,500 of MU CAPE). Though
storms will not be a guarantee (20-50% chance for more isolated
activity), the conditions would still be favorable to help give any
storm that does pop up potentially some strong to severe characteristics
(hail up to the size of quarters or wind gusts near 60 MPH). As
result, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather covers the
full area.


Sunday and Beyond...

Upper-level troughing out west will creep closer to the Central U.S.
across the beginning of next week. This slow moving feature will set
up a wave train of shortwave disturbances that will pass overtop of
the area mainly between Saturday and Wednesday. As result from this
feature, precipitation chances will return to the area Sunday (10-
30%), Tuesday (20-40%) and Wednesday (20-30%).

Storm chances Sunday will be concentrated towards far eastern to
southeastern portions of areas (mainly areas east of wherever the
dryline sets up that afternoon). A few storms that develop may
potentially become strong to severe (Marginal severe weather outlook
for locations mainly east of HWY-281). Another potential for
scattered storms could come Tuesday evening into Wednesday, although
a lot of uncertainty still remains for this particular event.

Model solutions between the GFS and ECMWF (long range global
deterministic models) begin to diverge Tuesday as another surface
cyclone is expected to develop across the Central U.S. Uncertainty
with the system`s track, timing and frontal placements will
ultimately determine when and where storms may end up develop.

Otherwise, the continuation of southerly winds each day through
Thursday (besides Wednesday) will help highs maintain in the mid 70s
to 80s through much of the week. Near-critical fire weather
conditions look to return to at least a portion of the area each
afternoon Sunday through next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

This is a complex aviation weather period with high confidence
in lowering IFR ceilings, but questions on the exact timing on
when we will get down to IFR. We also expect off and on showers
and thunderstorms mainly after midnight through around dawn. In
addition, we could see fog develop late tonight that could last
through mid morning Saturday, but hard to say how dense the fog
will get given fairly high model uncertainty. Therefore, we may
have to update the TAF to lower visibility if fog begins to
materialize off to the southwest, which is where fog will
develop first.

We could also see late Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorm
redevelopment, but have not not included this in the TAF yet
given expected isolated nature of this 2nd round of
precipitation. At some point in the afternoon we expect the
clouds will lift and become more scattered.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion