Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

165
FXUS63 KOAX 030420
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1020 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wednesday brings a 15% chance for a few flurries, snow
  showers, and/or some freezing drizzle as arctic air pours into
  the area early.

- Thursday morning lows will be below zero for most.

- Expect a warm up again Friday, with another cool down for the
  weekend`s second half.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Clear skies allowed for efficient radiational cooling this
morning. Widespread single- digit lows qualified the day as the
coldest since February. Since then, mid and high-level cloud
cover has developed in response to widespread isentropic
upglide as warm air tries to scour out the arctic air in place.
In relation, afternoon temps range from upper-30s on the CWA`s
western fringes to upper-20s in western Iowa.

Current 1024mb pressure readings in British Columbia hint at
the significance of the arctic high pressure headed this way.
The leading edge of the cold air will push into Norfolk around
midnight tonight and through Omaha and Lincoln by 6am.

.WEDNESDAY...

Just behind the front, light precip is possible (15% PoPs) with
light snow and freezing drizzle the most likely p-types. A warm
nose at just 800 feet above the surface may be deep enough to
melt any flurries. They`d instantly freeze to any surface they
came into contact with (freezing drizzle).

High temperatures will be set around the time of the front`s
passage. Temperatures and morale will fall over the course of
the day. Wind gusts of 20-30mph out of the northwest are
expected to push apparent temps into the single digits by the
afternoon. Kids walking home from school should be properly
bundled. It`ll be cold even considering we`re on the last page
of the calendar. Surface temperatures will fall shy of the tenth
percentile of seasonal climatology.

.THURSDAY...

The core of that high pressure will pass over the OAX CWA at
about 3am Thursday morning leaving clear skies, calm winds, and
very effective radiative cooling with the fresh snow on the
ground. This should allow temps to slip sub- zero for the first
time this season. Lincoln`s record low (-3/1902) is in peril.

The frigid aberration won`t last long. Thanks to sunshine and
return southerly flow that develops on Thursday, high temps
bounce back to near freezing on the western edge of the forecast
area while mid-teens hold on in parts of western Iowa. The
tight temp gradient remains overnight, too. From 22F at Niobrara
to about 7 at Villisca, IA.

.THE WEEKEND...

Friday may be warm enough to melt some leftover snow for a few
minutes in the afternoon.

Saturday`s 15-30% PoPs are tied to a shortwave swinging through
on northwesterly H5 flow around the Hudson low. QPF looks low
from this POV, but timing and placement confidence is growing
with time. Best chances of snow will remain northeast of this
forecast area. Sunday`s temps are knocked down a peg or two
behind the departing system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR cigs have started to move into northeast Nebraska and KOFK
this evening as the cold front moves in. Along with the front
comes a shift to north-northwesterly winds. This will continue
to spread southeastward overnight with a period of flurries or
freezing drizzle possible (15-20% chance) for a few hours after
the front moves through. Expect MVFR cigs to hang around through
much of the day on Wednesday, likely clearing towards 22-00Z.
Once cigs clear, we`ll see VFR conditions through the rest of
the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

982
FXUS63 KGID 030524
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1124 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moves through tonight and brings cold and blustery
  conditions for Wednesday, along with some flurries.

- Seasonably strong high pressure center will move nearly
  overhead Wednesday night, leading to very cold temperatures in
  the single digits above and below zero Thursday morning.

- Rest of the forecast will feature NW upper flow, which
  encourages wide oscillations in temperatures from day to day,
  along with quick-hitting systems that bring limited moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Have had a mix of sun and high clouds today, which combined with
the variance in snow depth, has led to a wide range in
temperatures this afternoon. Southwestern areas have seen more
sunshine and melted what little snow there was, which has
allowed highs to jump into the lower 50s on steady SW breezes.
However, the NE half of the forecast area has been under more
persistent high clouds and "deeper" snowcover, leaving temps
only on the mid 30s to mid 40s - lowest along the Hwy 81
corridor where snow depth remains highest. Will continue to see
high clouds stream into the area this evening, but otherwise,
expect a quiet evening with seasonable temps.

Later tonight, another Arctic cold front will blast through the
forecast area from N to S - generally in the 06Z-12Z time frame.
This front will bring another surge of cold air to the region
for Wednesday, along with blustery Nrly winds gusting around
20-30 MPH. Will likely also see some areas of flurries off and
on behind the frontal passage until around midday. Shouldn`t
take much to squeeze out some flakes given the strong cold air
advection, steep boundary layer lapse rates, and LCLs/stratus
deck temps near or within favored dendritic growth temps of -12C
to -18C. The magnitude of the CAA will tend to stymie the
diurnal temp curve, so will likely see steady or even falling
temperatures by early afternoon for all but perhaps our southern
tier of KS counties. Falling temps and blustery N winds will
cause wind chills only in the single digits to teens for
Nebraska counties by mid-afternoon, and teens-lower 20s in KS.

A seasonably strong high pressure center - nearing around +2
standard deviations for early December - will move down the
Missouri River Wednesday night. The timing and track of the high
pressure center will likely spare our forecast area from a total
bottoming out of temps like further E (double digits below zero
likely E NE into IA!), but it`ll still be quite cold with Thu AM
lows falling into the single digits. Areas along Hwy 81 with the
deeper snow cover and slower onset of return Srly flow may even
fall a few degrees below zero. Expect just enough of a breeze to
cause wind chills to remain below zero for most of the area
through the AM bus stop Thu AM.

The rest of the forecast looks to feature variable temperatures
and a couple low-end chances for light precipitation under fast NW
upper flow. Multiple systems will swing through the region in
the Day 3-7 portion of the forecast, but it appears we`ll be
favored to remain mostly on the drier, SW side of the systems
with not a lot of deep moisture to work with. Short of a
significant southwestward shift in the primary storm track/"wave
train", even if we do get in on some of the precipitation, it`ll
be on the light side and tend to favor our northeast zones most.
These waves are notoriously difficult to time out more than
24-48 hours in advance, but just know there will be a "train" of
weak upper disturbances from the Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley
essentially each day later this week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will fluctuate accordingly (mild ahead of a
wave/front, cooler behind it) with overall specifics also
depending on timing. Per the 12Z EPS, appears Sunday is the most
likely period for a drop in temps in what otherwise should be a
gradually warming period with gradually melting snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR CIGS can be seen on satellite gradually pushing south
across northern Nebraska this evening. While high cloud cover is
obscuring just how far south the lower clouds have progressed,
observations indicate that they have made it at least as far
south as ANW and continue to expect them to reach the terminals
around 03/09-03/10Z. As the front reaches the terminals, expect
a blanket of MVFR stratus to fill in across the area with an
increase in northwest winds to near 10 KTS. Could see some
temporary IFR CIGS and flurries as well with this front, and
covered this potential with a prob30 group from 03/10-03/14Z.
Thereafter, winds will increase further during the morning
hours, eventually gusting to near 25 KTS by late morning/early
afternoon, with MVFR CIGS likely persisting through around
03/23Z - or shortly thereafter - when model time heights and
cloud cover projections indicate they should exit the area
quickly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion