Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

378
FXUS63 KOAX 280521
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday brings below-normal temperatures with a scattered (30-60%)
  chance of showers.

- Near-normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday with a low
  (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

- Early morning temperatures in northeast Nebraska may approach
  freezing Wednesday and especially Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A departing shortwave leaves this forecast area under
northwesterly mid-level flow with noted height increases. A
persistent layer of stratus at about 2kft AGL blankets the
entire area with gusty northwesterly winds.

Occasionally gusting up to 30 mph this evening, winds will
taper through the night as a sfc high nears north-central
Nebraska by sunrise. This should leave enough of a pressure
gradient for 5-10 mph winds at the morning`s coldest moments.
For that reason, don`t believe that frost is likely to form in
far northeast Nebraska where temps will fall into the mid-30s.
Low- lying areas may slip closer to freezing, but any brushes
with 32F would be brief. Coincidentally, April 28th is the
climatological average of the season`s last freeze at Sioux City
and Tekamah.

.TUESDAY...

Northwesterly flow continues Tuesday, but at an unremarkable
5-15 mph. Skies will be nearly overcast by sunrise as a weak
shortwave approaches from the west. The system amplifies and
deepens after passing the area, bringing better chances of
precip across areas east of here, but 20-50% PoPs are warranted
across this CWA through the day Tuesday. QPF will be very light
with less than 0.1" expected. Be glad our temps remain just
above freezing as there will be some snow in the western half of
Nebraska. The last of the showers should push out of western
Iowa before midnight.

Have not added fog to the grids for Tuesday night, but with
quiet winds, the forecast woulnd`t have to cool much further
before some widespread saturation. Currently, REFS keeps the
probability of visibility slipping below 5 miles at under 10%.
Low temps flirt with freezing again, especially along and north
of a line from Albion to Wayne.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

After a gray day of sub-par temperatures in the 50s, Wednesday`s
60s will feel good. A sfc high passing south of the area keeps
the winds out of the west which can be thanked - along with the
sunshine - for the improved temps.

A cold front sags across the area on Thursday as a second H5
closed low sags south across the Great Lakes. PoPs have been
trending lower with this boundary passage as forecast soundings
look to be hampered by lots of dry low-level air and little
instability. Perhaps more impactful would be the clearing skies
and calm winds forecast behind the boundary by Friday morning.
Current NBM numbers for the northern third of the forecast area
dip to freezing or near 30 Friday morning. (NBM displays freezing
probs of 10-20% north of I-80). Frost/freeze headlines may be
necessary should this trend endure.

.LONGER RANGE...

Ridging begins to work into the area from the west over the
course of the weekend and temperatures respond by climbing into
the lower-70s by Sunday. Under the northwest flow resultant of
being on the eastern side of the H5 ridge, the area should be
subject to occasional shortwaves and regular opportunities for
early May showers next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR cigs this evening are gradually clearing with cigs lifting
to around FL040. We`ll see these clouds gradually clear as well
over the next few hours with higher clouds moving in around
FL110-120. Northwesterly winds this evening have already
weakened to around 10-12kt and will continue to gradually weaken
overnight. We`ll see them shift to more northerly Tuesday
morning. VFR conditions will hold through the morning with
30-60% chances for rain through the afternoon. Higher chances
are toward the west, with around a 30% chance for MVFR cigs at
KOFK after the rain moves in around 21Z. We`ll see any lower
clouds clear after 03Z Tuesday night with clearing skies
expected after 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

201
FXUS63 KGID 280544
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Starting very late tonight, and continuing through Thursday
  night, there will be intermittent chances for light showers
  and perhaps a few WEAK thunderstorms (chances for severe
  storms through at least the next 7 days appear almost non-
  existent).

- Frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temperatures will come into
  play for at least portions (potentially most?) of our forecast
  area (CWA), especially late Tues night-Wed AM and then again
  Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri night-Sat AM. Still a little
  uncertainty on temps, so no formal Advisories/Warnings out
  just yet.

- Precipitation-wise beyond Thursday night: Fairly high
  confidence that at least Fri-Sat remain dry (possibly Sun-Mon
  too, but not as "certain"). The bottom line: Take what rain
  you can get through Thursday night.

- Temperature-wise: a stretch of somewhat-cool weather for late
  April/early May, especially through Friday (highs mainly
  50s-low 60s/overnight lows mainly low 30s-low 40s). Sat-Mon
  then brings a modest warm-up...but still a far cry from "hot"
  with highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s.

- On a positive note: For the first in at least weeks, there are
  NO apparent heightened/critical "fire weather days" through at
  least the next week (due in part to the cooler temperatures),
  although perhaps some "near-critical" conditions could sneak
  back into play by Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- No truly "major" changes of note from previous forecast issued
early this AM.

- As already alluded to in the Key Messages above, we are  actually
in the midst of a fairly "ideal" weather pattern for  the next
several days: seasonably-cool with intermittent rain  chances and NO
higher-end fire weather setups OR chances for   severe storms. The
only folks who might complain are the "warm  weather lovers", as no
days with 80+ degree highs will occur   anytime soon.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Mon. May 4):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
First, a quick recap of rainfall over the last 48 hours:
Back on Thursday, this forecaster mentioned that MOST of our CWA
would hopefully pick up at least 0.50-1.00". Fortunately, MOST
places in fact did. However, as always there were lower
exceptions on either side. On the low end, a few western and
also southeastern counties (particularly much of
Dawson/Gosper/Nuckolls/Clay/Thayer) fell solidly short of
0.50...but at least mostly picked up at least 0.25". On the
higher end of things, a stripe running very roughly from west of
Hastings to north of Aurora picked up at least 1.50" (localized
3"), while parts of several of our KS counties also saw at least
1.50-2.00". All in all, decent totals, but it sure would have
been nice if EVERYBODY had gotten at least 0.50".

On to the here and now:
The last of the spotty showers/weak thunderstorms from the
weekend system either dissipated over/departed east of our
forecast area (CWA) several hours ago now, with this afternoon
featuring dry conditions under skies ranging from cloudy/mostly
cloudy across roughly the northeastern 2/3rds of our CWA, to
partly cloudy (even pockets of mostly sunny) within our
southwestern 1/3rd. Its been breezy to somewhat-windy area wide,
with sustained northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts
25-35 MPH. High temperatures are on track to range from upper
40s-low 50s far north-northeast, to a mix of mid-upper 50s
across most of our Nebraska counties, to low-mid 60s mainly in
our KS counties along with Furnas County area.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short-term model data clearly show us "in between"
disturbances, with the departing one exiting over IA/MO, while
the next main shortwave trough is working its way through the
CA/NV/AZ border area...with weaker "ripples" extending out ahead
of it into the Central Rockies.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Fairly high confidence that our entire CWA makes it through at
least midnight dry, as breezy winds gradually subside and turn
more northerly. Then, between midnight and sunrise Tuesday (but
mainly after 3-4 AM), a weak upper wave arriving from the west
will generate at least a narrow, generally west-east oriented
band of chilly light rain. There is some uncertainty on the
"exact" placement of this rain band, and rain chances (PoPs) are
likely too broad in north-south extent, but consensus of latest
models favors the western half of our Nebraska CWA for the
highest chances for at least few hundredths of pre-sunrise rain.
Briefly touching on precip type, we are expecting this
precipitation to be ALL RAIN within our CWA, but please note
that some slushy snow could mix in with the rain not all that
far west-northwest of our CWA (out over the Sandhills), so
again, this will be a chilly rain. As for temps, am counting on
a mix of continued low clouds and then quite a few mid-high
clouds arriving from the west (especially post-midnight) to keep
things from "tanking" too far...and some places could see lows
reached closer to midnight with steady/very slightly rising
temps thereafter as clouds/precip arrives. If anything nudged up
lows very slightly from previous, aiming most of the CWA between
35-39 degrees. Although this is technically cold enough for at
least limited frost development (especially far northwest), the
increasing clouds and/or rain moving in should largely prove
unfavorable, and we don`t have any frost in the official
forecast.


- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
It`s becoming pretty clear that this will be the overall-coolest
and (in various places) overall-wettest daytime of the week.
Aloft, the next low amplitude shortwave trough swings directly
through the Central Plains, driving continued chances for at
least scattered light rain showers especially within our
Nebraska counties (lower chances in KS). We`re certainly not
talking big amounts (most places no more than 0.05-0.20"), but
we`ll take what we can get! A rogue rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out, but with such meager instability have omitted from
official forecast. Temperature-wise, if anything nudged down
highs very slightly from previous, with most of our CWA
(especially Nebraska) aimed 49-54, and the majority of any mid-
upper 50s focused in KS. Finally, it will not be as windy as
today, with speeds mainly around 10 MPH out of the north to
northeast.


- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Right away early in the evening (mainly pre-nightfall) we could
still see some lingering light rain showers in our north-
northeast zones, and perhaps a few showers sneaking into our far
southwestern zones out of southwestern NE. However, high
confidence that it`s dry through the night most all areas
(especially beyond 10 PM). Winds will only average around 5 MPH
or less from a mainly northerly or westerly direction. That
leaves cloud cover (and resultant temperatures) as the "million
dollar question" that could ultimately make-or-break the
development of frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temps.
Unfortunately, there is some uncertainty here, but our latest
forecast is geared toward "mostly clear skies with patches of
lower stratus here or there"). Assuming this plays out, temps
should have no problem dropping well into the 31-36 range most
places, with areas of frost a decent bet. That being said, IF
low stratus remains more stubborn, it could remain a few-to-
several degrees warmer. Given these modest uncertainties,
refrained from issuing any Frost Advisories and/or Freeze
Warnings on this shift, but these will be strongly considered
within the next 24 hours. One one final note, we could also
perhaps see some patchy fog development, but have kept this out
of the official forecast for now.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT:
Aloft, our area will reside under west-northwesterly flow, as a
few fairly weak disturbances brush through our area. At the
surface, the main feature will be a weak cold front dropping
through from the north on Thursday. Precipitation-wise, while
most of Wed daytime will remain dry, isolated showers/weak
thunderstorms could drift into mainly our northern/western
counties late Wed afternoon into Wed night, with additional
chances for isolated/scattered activity targeting mainly our
southern/southwestern CWA Thursday daytime-evening before rain
chances vacate southward late.

Temperature-wise, highs both days are fairly similar (mainly
low-mid 60s). As for overnight lows, Wed night appears a touch
warmer given more clouds and areas of rain, with lows mainly
upper 30s-low 40s and thus minimal frost concerns. However,
Thurs night-Fri AM looks chillier (lows mainly low-mid 30s) and
perhaps more favorable for frost and/or slightly sub-freezing
temps.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
Fairly high confidence in our going dry forecast, as we reside
under rather benign north-northwesterly flow aloft (to the west-
southwest of a large-scale low centered over the eastern Great
Lakes region). Friday looks to be our final "coolish" day with
highs low-mid 60s, with Saturday then turning about 10 degrees
warmer (mainly low-mid 70s) as breezes turn southerly. One final
opportunity for frost development could arise Fri night-Sat AM
before the warm-up commences.


- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
While latest ECMWF/GFS suggests that most of these two days will
be dry, they also both show some spotty light shower potential
mainly Sunday-Sunday night as an upper wave passes through in
the continued north-northwesterly flow aloft (our official
forecast currently assigns most of these small rain chances to
Sunday night). Temperature-wise, some guidance suggests our
forecast could be aiming a touch too warm, but for now we are
calling for highs mainly mid 70s both days, with MAYBE our far
south-southwestern counties touching 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is some uncertainty about ceiling heights overnight into
Tuesday morning. The most likely outcome is that ceilings will
range from MVFR to low-end VFR now through Tuesday morning.
There is more confidence of low ceilings (MVFR and perhaps IFR)
late Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. Low ceilings
are expected to clear out of the area beginning around 03z
Wednesday. Rain showers (and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm)
will impact the terminals later overnight into the afternoon
hours. Winds will generally be out of the north with some
variability between northeast and northwest.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion