40°F
Updated:
4/4/2026
9:31:00pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
266 FXUS63 KOAX 042315 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 615 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer Sunday with highs in the 60s. - An active weather pattern will lead to continued precipitation chances for much of the upcoming week. Rain could mix with or change over to all snow on Monday and Tuesday mornings with some minor accumulations possible. - Very high fire danger is forecast in northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Rest of this afternoon through Sunday: Early-afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over MN with an associated vorticity lobe pivoting through the base of the low across the mid MO Valley. Latest CAM guidance suggests that forcing for ascent associated with that feature may be sufficient to support a few low-topped showers this afternoon, mainly in west-central IA. Otherwise, strong northwest winds with gusts up to 35-40 mph will continue this afternoon before decreasing this evening, along with cloud cover. A downslope-enhanced, warm-advection pattern develops on Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s. Sunday night through Tuesday: A northwest flow pattern will prevail in the mid levels with a weak disturbance glancing the region to the north on Tuesday. In the low levels, a cold front will move through the area Sunday night with a cooler air mass overspreading the area Monday into Tuesday when highs in the 40s and 50s are forecast. A strengthening band of mid-level frontogenesis will support increasing precipitation chances late Sunday night into Monday night with the highest PoPs of 40-60% forecast late Monday night. By Tuesday into Tuesday night, the glancing influence of the weak disturbance mentioned above coupled with strengthening low/mid-level warm advection will maintain a chance of measurable precipitation with the highest PoPs of 40-55% forecast Tuesday afternoon. The potential will exist for rain to mix with snow or change over to all snow at some locations on Monday and Tuesday mornings with some minor accumulations possible. The 06z runs of the EPS and GEFS do indicate up to a 40-50% chance for one inch accumulations through Tuesday morning with a 5-10% chance of minor travel impacts. Tuesday night through Friday: Latest global models depict a significant mid/upper-level low tracking through the Canadian Prairie Provinces Tuesday night through Wednesday night with an associated belt of mid-level height falls overspreading the north-central CONUS. Gusty south to southwest winds are forecast to develop on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which is projected to move through the mid MO Valley on Wednesday night into Thursday. The south winds will advect a warmer air mass into the region ahead of the front with Wednesday`s highs in the 60s and 70s. The warm temperatures in conjunction with relative humidity reductions to 25-30% will result in very high fire danger in northeast NE. 20-40% PoPs will be maintained Tuesday night and Wednesday with increasing chances for a few storms Wednesday night with the arrival of the front. On Thursday into Thursday night, a low-amplitude disturbance is forecast to move through the region and combine with the surface front in the vicinity to support a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms with 40-60% PoPs Thursday increasing to 60-70% Thursday night. The forecast will indicate continued high PoPs into Friday; however, some recent model guidance suggests that the front could push south of the area Friday, reducing precipitation chances. There is a small signal in some machine- learning guidance for an isolated severe weather threat along the front Thursday and/or Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 VFR conditions favored through the period with diminishing 3500-5000 ft clouds this evening. Winds will remain northwesterly, gusting 20-30 kts early in the period before dropping below 10 kts overnight. Latest guidance has trended toward some slightly stronger winds Sunday afternoon, with hints of 18-25 kt gusts by around 20Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...CA
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
044 FXUS63 KGID 042320 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon generally west and southwest of the Tri-Cities area. - The next chance of precipitation (15%-30%) is on Monday with various chances through the end of the forecast. - The highest chance (60%-75%) of precipitation (showers and storms) is Thursday night into Friday. - There are large uncertainties with high temperatures on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends over Nebraska and Kansas. Gusty, northwest winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will range from the 40s to the 60s but winds will make it feel cooler. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon (west of the Tri-Cities area) with minimum humidity values of around 22% - 26% across western portions of the area and wind gusts of 20-30+ MPH. Winds will be light out of the northwest and west tonight with clear skies and temperatures cooling into the 20s and 30s. Winds will transition from the west to north northwest on Sunday but will be much lighter than today. The area will be in between 2 surface lows on Sunday which will allow for temperatures to warm up into the 60s and 70s. Winds will transition to the east northeast Sunday night with low temperatures a little warmer than the previous night but still in the 20s and 30s. Cooler air will move into the area from the northeast on Monday with high temperatures expected to generally range from the 40s to the 60s. Some light rain showers may develop (15%-30% chance) mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities on Monday with an increase in atmospheric lift. Winds will transition to the east and southeast Monday night with precipitation (rain possibly mixed with snow) possible (15% - 40% chance). Low temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the 20s and 30s (cooler than the previous night). Enhanced upper lift will move over the area on Tuesday. This along with southeasterly winds may result in increased cloud cover and moisture. Drizzle along with light rain/light snow will be possible on Tuesday (30% to near 60% chance) with any snow being in the morning hours. There are uncertainties in how long the cloud cover and moisture will remain over the area on Tuesday which has lead to uncertainties in high temperatures. As of now, expecting high temperatures on Tuesday to range from the low 50s to low 70s although some places across the north may not get out of the 40s. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest Tuesday night which will result in warmer low temperatures. At this time, expecting lows to mostly be in the 40s. An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Wednesday sending a cold front southward. Temperatures are expected to warm up on Wednesday ahead of the cold front but there are some uncertainties in regards to how warm it will get. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front will move into the area on Thursday with quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop associated with this front. High uncertainty in regards to temperatures continues into Friday along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms (50% to 75% chance). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just a few passing mid level clouds early on and diminishing winds this evening as the surface winds decouple and an area of surface high pressure moves in from the west. Winds will increase out of the west a bit during the midday hours Sunday, but with a weak pressure gradient, should remain around 12 KTS or less...with a few higher gusts due to modest mixing to near 700 MB during the afternoon hours. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Rossi
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