66°F
Updated:
7/23/2026
09:51:23am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
766 FXUS63 KOAX 231100 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 600 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s. - The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night, with totals approaching 1 to 2 inches in southeast Nebraska. - Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Pretty quiet across the area as of 11 PM, with earlier rain having largely dissipated. However, additional showers and storms are still on track to move into portions of the area Thursday morning as another shortwave trough slides through and low level moisture transport points toward the area. Little to no instability will be in place, so thunderstorms chances will be quite low, but any showers that do develop could be somewhat efficient rain producers with precipitable water values climbing over 1.75" near the NE/KS border and warm cloud depths over 4 km. That said, latest guidance has trended toward keeping the heavier precip farther southwest, with only a 10% chance of seeing at least 1" clipping Jefferson County. In fact, now only expecting a few tenths of an inch at most southwest of a line from Albion to Beatrice, with maybe only a few hundredths to the northeast. Despite the downward trend in precip chances, temperatures look to remain on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. While any showers should dissipate through Thursday afternoon, we`ll once again see shower and storm redevelopment Thursday evening into early Friday as a stronger shortwave trough moves through with low level moisture transport pointing into southeast NE. Like tonight, trends with the heaviest precipitation have been a little farther south. Elevated precipitable water values (near 2") and warm cloud depths over 4.5 km suggest we`ll have some efficient rain producers. In addition, it looks like we`ll have maybe a little more instability, at least along the NE/KS border, so could see totals over 1" in that area, with some localized 2+" amounts. We`ll have to see how things trend through the day on Thursday. Otherwise, precip will taper off through the day with lingering clouds giving us one more day of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most. Heat will then build back in for the weekend and into next week as ridging to our west will amplify and edge eastward. NAEFS and EPS guidance shows 850 mb temperatures climbing into the mid and then upper 20s Saturday and Sunday, good for the 90th+ percentile of climatology. Still some questions on how deep we`ll mix with stark differences between EPS and GEFS guidance. GEFS members are almost certainly over-mixed with temperatures well into the 100s area-wide. EPS seems more reasonable with highs in the mid 90s to around 100, but with our tendency to mix a little deeper on anomalously warm days would lean toward slightly higher temperatures than what EPS is showing. In addition, between moisture advection and corn evapotranspiration, dewpoints look to climb back into the 70s and lead to heat indices in at least parts of the area Saturday through Monday. Sunday currently looks like the hottest day, with many locations seeing heat indices of 105 to 110. All that said, one fly in the ointment on the temperature forecast will be potential for various bits of shortwave energy to round the ridge and slide through the forecast area giving us chances for showers and storms, or at the very least, clouds. Still quite a bit of spread in timing, track, and strength of these disturbances, but currently looking at occasional 10-20% chances, especially in northeast NE into west-central IA Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 VFR conditions are in place across the terminals this morning, with an area of scattered showers across south-central Nebraska expected to shift eastward over the morning and into the afternoon, decreasing in coverage and intensity while it does so. Winds will increasingly become southeasterly, with speeds of 10-15 kts this afternoon. Expect a break in showers and storms late this afternoon into the evening, before another round arrives late this evening into the early morning hours, with increasing chances for thunder and MVFR ceilings. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
315 FXUS63 KGID 231138 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms and showers are in the process of passing through much of the area this morning. The concentration of these storms/showers will be expected to gradually decrease in coverage from 10AM and 2PM. Any activity after 2PM should be fairly isolated and short lived. - Another round of showers and storms will come back this evening into Friday morning. The greatest storm coverage and amounts (up to 0.5-1+") should be concentration across north central Kansas and Nebraska areas mainly east of HWY-281. - Temperatures will warm up through the weekend with upper 90 to low 100 highs possible Sunday and Monday afternoon. - Temperatures after Monday will be expected to drop back to mainly the 90s with a handful of precipitation/storm chances returning to a few portions of the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 This morning, a cluster of non-severe storms and showers are in the process of moving in from western Nebraska / northwest Kansas. These showers/storms will continue to spread east across a majority of the area through the rest of this morning to early afternoon (mainly before 2PM). The greatest storm/shower coverage should peak between now and 10AM with the coverage gradually decreasing from 10AM to mainly 2PM. Any remaining showers or weak storms after 2PM will generally be more isolated in coverage and short lived. In terms of the expected precipitation amounts today, at least 90% of the coverage area (north central Kansas and south central Nebraska) should receive at least some measurable amount of precipitation. Though some areas may only see up to 0.1-0.5" (locations mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities or across north central Kansas), a majority of south central Nebraska will still be expected to receive amounts up to 0.5-1+". A few of the stronger storms tracking through early this morning could carry heavier downpours that may distribute locally higher rainfall amounts up to just over 1" across a few portions of south central nebraska (20-50% chance for counties along and south of I-80). Much of the afternoon hours will be dry ahead of a second wave of precipitation expected to come in alongside a passing shortwave trough/disturbance this evening into Friday morning. The biggest shift in the forecast for precipitation chances tonight has been an east/southeast shift of confidence and precipitation amounts. The latest 6z HRRR has continued to concentrate storms across mainly Nebraska areas east of HWY-281 and across north central Kansas areas with the remainder of the area kept mostly dry (
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