Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

311
FXUS63 KOAX 141918
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week,
  particularly tonight and Friday.

- Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between
  systems.

- Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with
  agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows
  Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today and Tonight...

A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln,
Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud
deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the
low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought
warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought
plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30
percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm
temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire
danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will
remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions
are worst, until 9 PM tonight.

The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the
forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk
for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast
Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have
pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the
forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms
do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have
a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could
hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the
entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional
shear could allow storms to become severe.  Large hail and damaging
wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are
able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early
morning hours.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will
move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska
Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms
through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the
north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern
Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the
evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe
storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the
region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday,
warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs
Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Beyond...

Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the
week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an
attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough
over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the
area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler
air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still
uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of
everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected,
with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty
in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to
monitor the forecast for potential changes.

Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend.
Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over
north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to
the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an
eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of
the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday
night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from
the mid-20s to the mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A warm front draped across the region will make for a tricky
wind forecast this afternoon. KOMA and KLNK currently reside
right along the front, with light and variable winds. Expect the
front to push farther north this afternoon, bringing
southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible this evening and
overnight. While the best chance for strong to severe storms
will likely remain south and east of the TAF sites, a few weaker
storms could develop farther north. The best chance for thunder
at KOMA, KLNK, and KOFK will likely be after 06Z tonight and
into Wednesday morning, however confidence in storm location is
too low to include a mention at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

015
FXUS63 KGID 142056
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
356 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along
  and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind
  gusts 25-35 mph)

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly
  within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the
  northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be
  quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or
  just after sunset.

- Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM
  across south central Nebraska could also become severe with
  the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds.

- Friday`s storm system will likely send a cold front through
  early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly
  winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely
  not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe
  weather threat east of our forecast area.

- Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our
  entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds
  Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30
  MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day)

- Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward:  Each
  afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical
  fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least
  parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire
  weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on
  Thursday.

- Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some
  areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with
  most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you
  already plant your tomatoes (better cover them).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today...

The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our
forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from
Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the
CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible
thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated
thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has
been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These
will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the
steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and
very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the
primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest
that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any
of these thunderstorms.


Tonight...

We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated
thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However,
things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday.


Wednesday...

The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating
thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn.
These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning,
could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast
area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although
our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe
weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may
need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties.
The main threat will again be hail and wind through early
afternoon.

Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler
60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice
as one might expect.


Thursday...

This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s.
It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please
see the fire weather section below.


Friday Through next Weekend...

A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but
the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any
precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will
likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast
is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some
areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts
out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it
probably won`t end very nice behind that cold front. Fire
weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section
below.


Monday and Tuesday...

The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer
weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United
States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain.
We`ll have to see as it`s still a long ways off.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The wind for the most part should remain out of the northeast at
KEAR and KGRI through the evening with the strongest winds this
afternoon. Eventually the wind will become northerly late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a surface low tracks south of
the area. Eventually we expect breezy northwesterly winds by
Wednesday afternoon after the low pressure system passes by.

The primary aviation concern is the chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly tonight into Wednesday morning with the
most likely time frame being late Wednesday morning through
around the noon hour as the surface low passes through. Will
continue with the VFR conditions for now, but can not rule out
periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary
boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS
border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red
flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset.
Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will
limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area.

THURSDAY:
We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday
due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat,
drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon-
early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with
southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH.
Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon.
We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but
wanted to get through today`s Red Flag Warning first before
issuing for Thursday.


FRIDAY-MONDAY:
There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get
cooler. The airmass behind Friday`s system is dry and RH values
will continue to be at least near critical. There could be
enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during
this period for some areas.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion