Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

943
FXUS63 KOAX 020444
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1044 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of light snow continues through western IA this
  evening. Accumulations up to an inch possible.

- Well-below normal temperatures continue through Monday.
  Morning wind chills will be in the single digits for many with
  daytime highs in the 20s.

- Warming temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, then cooling
  temperatures behind a strong cold front Thursday and Friday,
  then warming again into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024

Meteorological winter opens with an unmistakably wintry day of
temps peaking near freezing, afternoon wind chills dipping into
the teens at times, and even the occasional flurry. Today`s
snow hasn`t impressed much as of yet with only isolated flurries
reported so far... mostly around the Omaha metro. Expect
greater snowfall rates as better mid- level moisture advects in
from the northwest. Best chances of accumulations will remain
just northeast of this forecast area in north- central Iowa with
max totals likely under 2". As drier air works in from the
north and subsidence behind the departing shortwave pushes
through, snow will end across the area by about midnight
tonight.

As the sfc high settles in tonight, we`ll get peeks of a new
moon, but plenty of moisture remains trapped in the PBL and
there will be plenty of low-level clouds to deal with. Winds
will be light overnight before increasing out of the north on
Monday morning. Gusts of 20-25 knots are expected. The reinforcing
cold air advection keeps high temps cemented in the 20s.

The H5 trof and sfc high slide east on Tuesday, allowing
southerly return flow and sunny skies to conspire to push temps
close to 40F and seasonal norms. Wednesday may be about five
degrees warmer before a cold front crashes through mid-day,
bringing breezy northwesterly winds.

Thursday will be cooler; the weekend warmer. This is typical for
late fall with regular bouts of warm air prior to intrusions of
cooler Canadian or Arctic air pushing in from the north. The
average position of the polar jet slips equatorward over the
course of autumn allowing these cold spells to happen more often
as the season continues.

Global deterministic models continue to produce isolated
chances of snow on Thursday evening with a shortwave working
west to east across the mid-Missouri River Valley. But the
ensemble runs of the same NWP only produce snow in about 10% of
members. Will need to see more before inclusion of PoPs is
warranted.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024

Light snow will move across northeast NE and western Iowa until
08-09Z. There is low confidence in this impacting the terminals.
The primary concern will be lowering ceilings. A deck of MVFR
ceilings (FL020 to FL030) will move into KOFK and KOMA by
06-08Z with gradual improvement by 13-16Z. Confidence is low in
these conditions impacting KLNK. Northerly to northwesterly
winds will increase above 12 kts at all terminals by 09-12Z with
gusts up to 20 kts possible. Winds will calm under 12 kts by
15-18Z and gradually shift clockwise to southerly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

651
FXUS63 KGID 020540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1140 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No precipitation is expected through the next 7 days.

- Wind chills may drop to zero degrees to around -5 degrees
  across portions of central Nebraska tonight and Monday night.

- The coldest day of the forecast will be Monday with highs in
  the lower 20s to mid 30s.

- The warmest day will be Wednesday with highs in the mid 40s to
  mid 50s across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024

Today through Monday night...

A broad, upper trough is over most of the country with south central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas under the backside of
the upper trough. Winds are mostly out of the southeast with
temperatures in the lower 30s to mid 40s. A cold front will move
into the area tonight with low temperatures ranging from around 10
degrees to the low 20s. Winds late tonight into early Monday morning
will be out of the north generally between 5 and 15 mph sustained
with gusts possibly reaching 20 mph. This will result in single
digit wind chills across most, if not all, of the area with
locations around and north of I-80 experiencing wind chills around 0
degrees to around -5 degrees. The northerly winds will continue into
Monday but will weaken and turn towards the east by Monday evening.
A surface high pressure will be centered over eastern Nebraska on
Monday with high temperatures across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas ranging from the lower 20s to mid
30s. Winds will turn towards the south Monday night with lows
ranging from around 10 degrees to 17 degrees. Single digit wind
chills are also expected Monday night across the area with some
locations experiencing wind chills near to slightly below zero.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Winds will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday as the
upper trough moves further east. A surface trough will be present
across western Nebraska. These conditions will result in
temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas warming up into the 40s and lower 50s. The warmer
temperatures will be across western portions of the forecast area
closest to the surface trough. Winds will shift towards the north
Tuesday night with low temperatures mostly in the 20s. Winds will be
out of the northwest on Wednesday with a cold front moving into
Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to be in the 40s and 50s. Cooler temperatures are expected
Wednesday night with lows ranging from around 11 degrees to around
21 degrees. A surface high will be across much of the Midwest on
Thursday including Nebraska and Kansas. High temperatures on
Thursday across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas will range from the upper 20s to the low 40s. Low
temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s
with southerly winds. Winds are expected to become more westerly on
Friday as an upper trough moves over the Upper Midwest. This will
result in temperatures warming up into the low 40s to low 50s.
Temperatures Friday night will also be warmer with lows in the 20s.
The warmup is expected to continue into Saturday with highs in the
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds are expected to switch from westerly to northwesterly
toward the beginning of the TAF period (around 09Z at GRI, they
already have at KEAR) and increase to 10-15 kts. Winds will
become northerly late morning, then light and variable again
this evening.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KEAR, but
with cloud cover moving in from the north, there is a chance for
MVFR CIGS during the morning hours at KGRI (from around 09Z to
16Z). Kept it with just FEW030 for now as model time heights and
soundings do not have a strong signal for the lower stratus at
the TAF sites...that being said, may need to amend if low
stratus makes it further south than expected. Beyond that,
there will be a cloud layer at 15k-18k ft, and potentially
another layer at around 25k ft this afternoon. Only have medium
confidence with the ceilings this morning, particularly at KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Hickford

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion