Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

185
FXUS63 KOAX 251008
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
408 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog and drizzle will linger this morning near and
  east of the Missouri River.

- Windy today with gusts of 35 to 50 mph across much of the
  areas. Portions of northeast Nebraska could see occasional
  gusts near 60 mph, where a High Wind Warning is in effect.

- A band of snow is expected to bring travel impacts to parts
  of the area Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances
  (40-60%) in northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.
  Questions remain on exact location and snow amounts at this
  time.

- Winter weather may continue to impact travel Saturday into
  Monday though confidence in details remains low. Keep up to
  date on the forecast as we go through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Early morning analysis showed a shortwave trough just starting
to push into the Dakotas with an area of surface low pressure in
northeast NE/southeast SD. A cold front stretched southwestward
from the low and was just about to enter Knox county. Ahead of
the front, there was widespread low clouds and some patchy dense
fog. Behind the front, winds were starting to pick up, with
30-45+ mph wind gusts in portions of central and western NE, and
even a few 55+ gusts as you move toward the panhandle. These
winds will continue eastward through the day with fog clearing
out as they move in. 40+ mph gusts are expected across much of
the forecast area through at least the afternoon, with some
locations in northeast NE into west- central IA expected to see
continued gusts into this evening. In addition, expect some
enhanced gusts across northeast NE where model soundings show
55-60+ kt winds at the top of the mixed layer this afternoon,
with 50+ kts through a good chunk of the layer. Combined with
fairly strong subsidence and cold air advection, these stronger
winds should reach the surface at times with a few 50-60 mph
gusts at times. Furthermore, EPS mean wind gusts in portions of
northeast NE top 60 mph, so ended up having the confidence to
issue a High Wind Warning for these areas. Farther southeast,
winds aloft won`t be quite as strong this afternoon, so kept as
a Wind Advisory and added roughly a row of counties on the
southeast edge. One thing to watch will be potential for the
strong winds to last longer into the evening than currently
forecast, as winds aloft will remain strong and model soundings
show us staying fairly mixed. However, raw wind gust guidance
does taper speeds off a bit this evening.

Along with the wind, we could see some light snow wrap around
the back side of the low and clip far northeast NE (15-30%
chance in Knox and Cedar counties). If we do manage to get a
stray heavier shower, visibility could briefly become poor due
to the wind, but latest short term guidance is in fairly good
agreement that most of this will stay about a county to our
north. Otherwise, temperatures today should top out mostly in
the 40s, though it can always be tricky with strong cold air
advection.

The surface low will push east and deepen across MN/WI this
evening and overnight with surface high pressure building in for
Wednesday and Thursday. This should lead to quiet weather both
days, but we`ll stay cool with highs in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Guidance is in good agreement that some weak shortwave
energy will slide southeast through NE Wednesday night,
potentially bringing a quick dusting of snow to some locations.
However, a vast majority of solutions keep this to our
southwest.

Attention then turns to snow chances for Friday and Friday
night as additional shortwave energy approaches with a decent
band of frontogenesis setting up somewhere across SD into NE
and/or IA. Still questions on how far north/south the band will
be and how much snow it will bring. In general EPS/ECMWF
solutions are farther north than GEFS/GFS/GEPS. GEFS suggests a
50% chance of at least 1" along and northeast of a line from
Norfolk to Omaha, while the EPS has that line more through
Yankton, Sioux City, and a county or so south of Des Moines (the
same Norfolk to Omaha line would be about 20% in this case).
For what it`s worth, model consensus suggests roughly 3- 5" in
the very center of that band (2-3 counties wide) wherever it
sets up, but there are certainly some outliers as is
typical of these frontogenesis-driven bands.

Following the band Friday, there`s starting to be a little bit
better agreement that precipitation becomes more widespread in
the area Saturday as the actual shortwave gets here and a
surface low spins up over eastern CO. There will be some dry air
to overcome on the southwest side of the Friday/Friday night
band leading to questions on precip amounts, but guidance
suggests it should fill in eventually. Precip type also remains
uncertain and will depend at least on track of the surface low
and resulting temperatures Saturday. Solutions range from
mostly snow (southern track) to snow in the north, rain in the
south, and a mix in between (northern track).

Beyond Saturday, forecast confidence really decreases with
guidance kind of split between two camps. One suggests strong
amplification of a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with a
cutoff low developing over the Desert Southwest, keeping us in
southwest flow while additional shortwave energy slides through
and gives us continued snow chances Sunday into Monday (e.g.
25.00Z GFS). The other would suggest the trough is not nearly as
amplified and we stay under zonal flow with surface high
pressure largely keeping us quiet (maybe a weak bit of shortwave
energy slides through and gives us flurries). So really the big
question is, do we see most of our snow and potential travel
impacts come to an end by Saturday evening, or do they continue
Sunday into early next week? For now, have 30-40% chances on
Sunday, but these will almost certainly change in the coming
days. If you have travel plans after Thanksgiving, make sure to
keep a close eye on the forecast. Otherwise, we do have a little
more confidence that even colder weather is on the way, with
weekend highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and perhaps even some
highs in the teens by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low ceilings have remained in place across most of the region.
Ceilings have been largely IFR, but have fallen to LIFR at
times, or increased to MVFR briefly. These low ceilings will
persist into the morning. Alongside the ceilings, areas of
drizzle and fog are reducing visibility to MVFR in many
locations, but brief reductions to IFR visibility are possible
as well. Ceilings and visibility will gradually improve near and
shortly after sunrise as wind speeds begin to increase. By mid-
morning, strong winds begin to overspread the area and will
quickly erode fog and clouds, returning everyone to VFR
conditions. Very strong northwest winds are anticipated across
the region through the afternoon into the evening. Wind speeds
will reach 20 to 30 kts with wind gusts approaching 45 kts,
especially with western extent.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for NEZ015-018-
     033-034-044-045-051>053-067-068-091-093.
     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight
     for NEZ012-015-018-032>034.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for NEZ011-016-017-030-031-042.
     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for NEZ043>045-050>053-065>067-078.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight
     for IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

724
FXUS63 KGID 250942
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
342 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning today for areas generally along and north of
  Highway 6. Northwesterly winds gust 50-60 MPH at times through
  the afternoon.

- Light snow is possible for parts of the area Friday through
  Sunday. Significant snow accumulation appears unlikely, but
  some areas could see the first accumulating snow of the season
  (40-50% chance).

- Trending cooler the rest of the week and through the weekend.
  Subfreezing high temperatures and single-digit low
  temperatures are likely by Sunday/Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Light winds and mostly clear skies ahead of the approaching cold
front has resulted in localized dense fog early this morning.
This fog is very shallow, and will clear from west to east before
sunrise as the front pushes into the area.

Gusts over 45 MPH have already been observed in portions of the
Sandhills, and will overspread the local area by mid-morning.
The start-time for the High Wind Warning was bumped back to 8am
(rather than 6am from the High Wind Watch). The strongest gusts are
not expected until the afternoon hours, as deeper mixing taps
into the stronger winds aloft. The core of strongest winds is
still expected to be over north-central Nebraska, but
occasional gusts in the 50-60 MPH range are possible as far
south as Highway 6.

Any snow associated with this system should remain to our
north...but could creep into northern parts of Nebraska this
afternoon and early evening. Winds gradually taper off through
the evening, and overnight lows are expected to dip into the
teens and low 20s.

Wednesday and Thanksgiving are still expected to be dry and
about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. There are no major
changes for Friday through the weekend. Accumulating snow on
Friday and Saturday is more favored to occur over eastern parts
of the area, with more widespread chances arriving Sunday
(possibly lingering into Monday). Significant accumulation
still appears unlikely. In general, the 00Z global ensembles
showed similar or slightly decreased probabilities for 1"+ of
snowfall. That said, anyone with holiday travel plans should
continue to monitor the forecast closely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lots of clouds lingered across the area today, rotating around
the area of low pressure crossing southern Kansas this
afternoon. Expect a period of at least partial clearing across
the area overnight as this system tracks further east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This clearing, combined
with light winds to start the night, could allow for the
redevelopment of some patchy fog late this evening and into the
overnight hours, but should be quickly scoured and pushed east
as winds start to pick up pre-dawn. The latest few runs of the
HRRR indicate some patchy dense fog mainly east of Highway 281
overnight, but did not buy into this completely (partly due to
slight westerly component of winds) and only included some
patchy fog mention in the official forecast that should be
completely gone by daybreak.

As the aforementioned cold front works its way across the tri-
cities area around daybreak, expect winds to start to crank up
across the region, with sustained winds of 25 MPH to 40 MPH
expected by midday. 18Z HRRR continues to indicate gusts of
40-50 KTS across areas generally along and north of Highway 6
during the late morning through afternoon hours, and as a
result, would not be surprised to see several gusts over 55 MPH
by the end of the day. As a result, went ahead and issued a high
wind watch for this area from 6 AM to 6 PM. In addition to the
strong winds, expect decent cold air advection through the day,
and for temperatures tomorrow afternoon to struggle to climb
into the 40s, or about 10 to possibly 15 degrees below this
afternoons highs, which combined with the strong winds, will
make it feel quite blustery across the area.

Behind this cold front, expect a general pattern shift for
several days as progressive northwesterly flow will continue
across the center of the country through the end of the week.
This will result in a generally cool weather pattern, with
temperatures remaining well below normal for an extended period
of time. Could also see multiple, quick passing, upper level
disturbances that bring small chances of snow to the region as
early as Friday afternoon, with the better signals coming late
in the weekend. The current forecast suggests the potential for
some light accumulations through Sunday, with a better chance
for a potentially more significant system over the middle of
next week as an upper level low lifts out of the southwest and
into the plains. Plenty of model divergence over this period,
but in general, expect colder temps and small chances for light
snow Friday afternoon through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There will be a brief period here at the start of this TAF
period, set up between clearing right along the backside of
departing cloud cover but ahead of the more westerly winds,
where the potential remains for lowered visibilities/ceilings at
both terminal sites. Have a pessimistic TEMPO group with
sub-1000ft ceilings and sub-1SM visibility in the forecast. Once
the more westerly winds building...expecting VFR conditions to
return. A cold front will be pushing through the area later
tonight...ushering in gusty NW winds in its wake. With the
initial push of the front, models continue to show the potential
for LLWS...which should wane by mid-late morning. The NW winds
will not be waning...but will be strengthening...with gusts
around 45-50 MPH possible by late morning and continuing to be
possible the rest of the day. Some diminishment of speeds
expected for the evening, but still looking at gusts around 30
MPH through the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through this
     afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion