Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

298
FXUS63 KOAX 010537
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest
  potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations
  will be Friday night.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 20%) at
  times through this weekend. Highest potential will be Friday
  afternoon, and Sunday evening.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming
  into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Tonight through Saturday Morning:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature zonal activity
along the southern tier of the CONUS, while northwesterly flow
brings in a band of ascent into the local area. That band of ascent
is working with weak warm air advection to develop a swath of
shallow clouds and a few sprinkles with them that extends form
northeast Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Very little if anything
will reach the ground, with the main concern of the overnight hours
instead being cooling temperatures and frost formation. Latest
observations show surface pressure tendencies on the increase, with
wind speeds also becoming lax to help increase radiational cooling
potential. Overnight lows are set to fall into the low-to-mid 30s,
making most of the area ready for frost formation in low-lying
areas.

By daybreak, we`ll start to begin coupling back and building the
boundary layer vertically to increase winds to similar speeds
experienced today. Gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours will
be enough to make the anticipated highs in the upper 50s to 60s feel
brisk. Additional dry air funneling into the area will keep humidity
values headed for the 20s across the bulk of the area, with the
spring green-up limiting fire danger with the forecasted wind
speeds. Heading into the overnight hours, another calm night arrives
and our best chances at frost and even freeze potential are set to
occur. Overnight temperatures will fall as low as 30 degrees at
their low point, which could trend even into the upper 20s if
temperatures over-perform compared to guidance the previous
morning. The best chances for any freeze warnings would be
northwest of a line from Columbus to Onawa, with the entire area
under the gun for frost.

Saturday and Beyond:

Saturday headed into next week will see the mid/upper pattern begin
building heights over the central and western CONUS as the main
upper trough scoots eastward. Highs will respond in kind, pushing
into the 60s/70s Saturday and well into the 70s Sunday/Monday. Rain
chances during this period are pretty slim, with anything that
models do put out ending up near a trace and a far cry from anything
that would help with the drought in place. The winds of change
arrive during the latter half of Monday heading into Tuesday, where
upper 50s/60s return and a cutoff low tries to phase with a digging
lobe of the persistent low to the northeast, bringing rain chances
for the general area. Large model spread and run-to-run differences
are going to keep any promises for meaningful rainfall limited. At
the very least, the NE/KS/IA/MO area will see some prolonged
rainfall headed towards mid-week, but details as to exactly where it
exceeds wetting amounts will remain murky for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours with light
and variable winds overnight (generally out of west). Mostly
clear skies are expected with a band of clouds working north to
south across the area at FL080.

Skies will be primarily clear on Friday, too, but a few cumulus
around FL060 are expected during the morning hours. Winds will
become breezy Friday morning with gusts near 20 knots out of the
north.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

698
FXUS63 KGID 010757
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
257 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory in effect until 9am. Another round of frost/freezing
  temperatures is possible tonight-Saturday morning.

- Highs today in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few showers/weak
  storms are possible (15-25%) across north central Kansas
  during the afternoon-early evening.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 70s/80s.
&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds have resulted in a chilly
morning, with temperatures currently in the upper 20s to low 30s.
While northwestern portions of the area may drop below freezing at
times, this overall does not look to be a true hard/killing freeze.
After a frosty start to the day, highs today climb into the
upper 50s (north) to mid 60s (south). Northerly winds will be
breezy at times, gusting 20-25mph behind a weak frontal passage.
Scattered showers/weak thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) this
afternoon- early evening along the front in north central
Kansas. Weak instability should keep these storms from becoming
strong/severe. Any accumulations with this look to be light (a
few hundredths).

Skies clear and winds become light after sunset allowing for another
cold night under the influence of upper level troughing. Lows
tonight will once again drop towards the freezing mark with
widespread frost possible across the area. Temperatures could be
slightly colder than this morning, which may result in a hard freeze
rather than "just frost". Regardless, headlines will likely be
needed tonight for this frost/freeze.

Northwesterly flow builds over the area this weekend, with
temperatures climbing back above normal. Highs will be in the 70s to
low 80s aided by light westerly winds and resulting in a pleasant
weekend overall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A weak front crossed the local area today with northerly breezes
and modestly cooler temperatures in its wake. With the colder
air advecting in aloft, steep lapse rates have led to some
diurnally driven clouds/showers/sprinkles popping up this
afternoon...all of which should rapidly diminish by early
evening. As skies clear and winds become light overnight, a
recipe for widespread frost appears to be in store, with most
locations forecast to drop into the lower to mid-30s. As a
result, a frost advisory goes into effect at midnight tonight
and lingers through 9 AM Friday morning.

A weak disturbance in northerly flow is then expected to clip
the local area Friday afternoon, sparking another round of light
showers (and possibly a very weak thunderstorm) focused across
our Kansas counties Friday afternoon. As skies behind this
disturbance clear Friday night, frost is again expected to be an
issue, albeit even colder temps may eventually justify a freeze
warning in spots.

After a cold start to the weekend Saturday morning, heights
aloft will begin to climb as high pressure moves in from the
west, making for a pretty spectacular weekend across the local
area with generally light westerly breezes and above normal
temperatures in the 70s (Saturday) to near 80 (Sunday). While
these warmer temperatures will persist into the new week, the
upper level ridge will eventually give way to a disturbance
from the west, which will bring at least a chance for some
showers and thunderstorms across the local area as early as
Monday evening and continuing through Wednesday. While there are
decent signals for some unsettled weather over this period in
ensembles, activity looks fairly scattered in nature and qpf
estimates are fairly modest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable through sunrise. During the mid-late
morning hours winds shift to the north and increase with gusts
around 20kts throughout the afternoon hours. Winds become light
and variable after sunset. FEW-SCT at times BKN mid-high level
clouds are possible throughout the TAF period but will be most
widespread during the daytime hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion