Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

864
FXUS63 KOAX 240459
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1159 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm for Sunday and Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening in
  northeast Nebraska. Some storms may be strong or severe with a
  threat of 2" hail.

- A shift in the pattern brings cooler temperatures and daily
  chances of showers/thunderstorm activity to the region
  beginning Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals amplified trofing
across the central CONUS with a cutoff low noted at H7.

Thunderstorm development in northeast Nebraska this evening is
tied to a shortwave rounding the trof`s base. A surface high
shifting east has kept southerly wind speeds under ten knots
except the occasional gust emanating from under the
thundershowers. The dry low-levels have left "inverted-v"
vertical profiles. This provides a chance for the precip to
evaporate and produce significant wind gusts. KBIE recorded one
gust just shy of severe criteria at 56 mph around 7pm. The
thunder-showers are weakening and dissipating as they move east
into a more stable environment. Skies will otherwise be mostly
clear with lows slipping into the lower-50s and near seasonal
norms.

.SUNDAY...

Sunday`s weather really looks a lot like today`s if maybe a
little "extra". Sfc temps will be warmer, increasing by about
5-10 degrees as mid-level heights climb and the flow becomes
more zonal. Skies will be sunnier and southerly winds will be
stronger at 10-20 mph in the afternoon. Then, just like today, a
shortwave approaching from the northwest brings a chance of
t-storms in the afternoon. The threat is conditional in that it
may not happen at all, but if storms do develop, they may grow
supercellular with up to 40 knots of effective sheer and arcing
hodos. The primary concern will be hail up to 2". The tornado
threat will be low with elevated LCLs (5kft) (dry low levels).
Again, most activity should be out of the area by midnight.

Quicker overnight winds will leave Sunday night temps warmer,
too. Lows should hold near 60F.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

Temperatures peak on Monday and Tuesday with ridging building
over the central CONUS in response to a cut-off low digging down
the West Coast. Temps should hit afternoon zeniths in the
mid-80s. More thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of the
washed out boundary on Monday afternoon (30% PoPs), but forcing
for ascent is weak and shear falls shy of where we`d hope it to
be, too. So while there may be some thunder, severe weather
doesn`t look likely at this point.

Tuesday`s temps mirror Monday`s, but with guidance currently
keeping things dry.

.SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

The upper pattern stagnates mid-way through next week as the
cutoff low spins over the Great Basin and an omega block sets up
over the central CONUS. 12z deterministic global guidance
suggests a heavy rain-making sfc low meandering northwest from
the Gulf of California through some portion of the
Central/Southern Plains. NBM`s PoPs currently peak at 50-70% on
Thursday evening. With weak steering flow and PWAT values above
90th percentile of late May climatology (NAEFS), significant
rain is possible and - for many locations - hoped for.

Temperatures are progged to fall closer to normal with mid- to
upper-70s Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals late this evening
and will linger into much of Sunday morning. 0456z radar imagery
shows a dissipating band of rain showers pushing east away from
terminals with lingering clouds around 7,000 to 8,000 ft. By
the mid afternoon into the evening hours, a few models suggest a
line of strong storms developing over eastern Nebraska from
near KOFK to KLNK, pushing east after 00z and slowly
dissipating. However, some guidance suggests storms staying well
off to the north and east away from TAF terminals. For this
issuance, have opted to leave mentions of -TSRA out given
chances remain at 30% or less for occurrence.

Winds from the south will gradually increase in speed by the
late morning hours with gusts of 20 to 25 kts, then tapering
down to less than 12 kts and becoming southeasterly after
00-01z. Low level wind shear develops at KOFK and KOMA after
04z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

059
FXUS63 KGID 240610
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday evening. A few storms could become strong to severe
  with gusts near 60 MPH and hail up to the size of golf balls.

- There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms again Monday
  evening. Chances for thunderstorms then increase Wednesday
  through Friday. Some severe storms cannot be ruled out, but
  widespread or significant severe weather appears unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Diurnally-driven cumulus is bubbling over the western 2/3rds of
Nebraska and down into NW Kansas. This is expected to continue
to develop this afternoon and move across the area this evening
as high-based showers and thunderstorms. Currently, shear is
pretty lackluster, but is expected to increase into the evening
hours, which will potentially allow storms to coalesce into one
or more line segments. Instability falls off quickly into
central Nebraska/Kansas, therefore severe weather remains
unlikely. Nevertheless, these high-based showers/storms could
produce some gusty winds this evening (evidenced on HRRR gust
output) and perhaps some small hail in the strongest updrafts.

Sunday will trend noticably warmer than today as the upper
trough moves out of the northern Plains and we see stronger
southerly winds at the surface. Widespread highs in the 80s are
expected, with some locations in southwest parts of the area
making a run at 90 degrees. Thunderstorms are again expected to
develop and move west-east across the area in the late
afternoon and evening. But, unlike today, convective parameters
are more favorable for a few storms to become severe. MLCAPE on
the order of 1500-2000 J/kg combined with deep-layer shear of
30-35kt would support a severe hail threat, and possibly a few
severe wind gusts as well. Nearly the entire area is now in a
"Marginal" (level 1 of 5) severe risk area.

Overall, Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday, but the
thunderstorm potential is more uncertain and likely to be more
isolated. Therefore, SPC has not introduced a severe outlook.

A deep upper low is forecast to move into the western CONUS,
which will eventually bring more widespread rain/thunderstorm
chances to the area Wednesday-Saturday. Unfortunately, the
evolution of this system is rather uncertain and therefore
details on timing are hard to pin down at the moment. At this
time, the overall severe risk doesn`t look particularly
concerning, especially for late May The GEFS CSU-MLP severe
probs remain less than 5% each day through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
High confidence in VFR ceiling throughout the period and high
confidence in VFR visibility through at least the vast majority
of it. Except for perhaps during a brief period of passing
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-early evening, any ceiling should
remain well above 5K ft. AGL.

The primary concerns of the period (in chronological order) are:
- 1) Right away these first several hours (through around 13Z),
  modest low level wind shear (LLWS) will occur, as
  southwesterly winds increase to 30-35KT within the lowest 1-2
  K ft. AGL. However, overall magnitude of LLWS should peak
  closer to 25KT than 30+KT...so it continues to be omitted from
  TAFs.

- 2) A 2-3 hour "window of opportunity" for thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon-early evening...currently included in lower-
  confidence PROB30 groups 21-24Z KEAR/22-01Z KGRI. In all
  reality these 3-hour windows is likely plenty generous, but
  it can hopefully be fine-tuned as it nears. IF a thunderstorm
  happens to directly impact KGRI/KEAR, severe winds (58+KT)
  and/or hail (1+" diameter) cannot be totally ruled out. Again
  though, this is not considered a high probability scenario.

- 3) In the wake of the aforementioned thunderstorms,
  moderately-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) should develop
  later Sunday evening into early Monday AM (currently assigned
  03-06Z), as southerly winds within the lowest 1,500 ft. AGL
  accelerate to at least 45KT..resulting in 30+KT of total LLWS
  magnitude.

Surface wind details (aside from any possible thunderstorm-
related outflow):
The lightest speeds of the period will be right away through
around 14Z this morning (mainly under 10KT from the south).
However, south-southwesterly speeds will ramp up through the
late-morning and especially afternoon hours, with sustained
speeds commonly 15-20KT/gusts 25-30KT. Speeds will back off
slightly Sunday evening-early Monday AM, but gusts of 20-25KT
will remain common.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion