Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

284
FXUS63 KOAX 241856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
156 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms are expected this evening/tonight,
  particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday
  night/Saturday morning, limited to northeastern Nebraska.

- Expect very hot and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday as
  highs reach into the 90s to low 100s each day and heat index
  values approach 105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The forecast period starts out with a weak upper ridge over southern
Wyoming/northern Colorado. A weak shortwave crosses into the region
this evening/tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92 as the
system rolls through. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and DCAPE
values of 800-1200 J/kg are expected for areas along and south of a
line from the Omaha Metro to York. Wouldn`t entirely rule out a
strong storm or two developing with mainly a wind threat,
particularly for areas south of Lincoln this evening/tonight.

Thursday brings a shift in the pattern as a couple of weak shortwave
troughs moves across the Wyoming/Colorado border, shifting us into
more of a zonal flow pattern through Friday. Expect a slight cool
down as temperatures rise mainly into the 70s, with a few isolated
80s possible along portions of the Missouri River. As the shortwaves
move through Nebraska, there will be a chance (20-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms. These chances are expected to taper off west to
east by Thursday morning.

We maintain zonal flow Friday with a deepening upper low over the
Aleutian Islands and the PACNW. Expect this to be the last cool-ish
day for awhile, with highs ranging form the mid-70s to mid-80s.

Heading into the weekend, the upper low will push ashore over the
West Coast, although there is still some uncertainty in where it
will eventually come ashore. A broad upper trough will extend from
the West Coast to the Rockies, amplifying a ridge over the Midwest
and putting the Great Plains under southwest flow. Saturday highs
will reach into the mid to upper 80s. Sunday and beyond, forecasted
high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s to low 100s. Heat
index values for many areas will range from 96-105. Southwest flow
remains over us through the extended forecast. A few disturbances
are expected to move into the plains, which could ultimately give us
a chance for a few showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions persist through much of the forecast period.
Northwest winds become northerly after 00Z, before becoming
light and variable this evening. Model guidance continues to
show some support for shower/storm activity after 00Z; however,
chances have decreased somewhat.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

000
FXUS63 KGID 241744
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and semi-active weather pattern continues for
  another couple of days.

- While the overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty
  marginal, a few strong/severe storms will be possible during
  the late afternoon/evening hours both today and Thursday.

- Return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity this
  weekend into early next week.

- After a few hot, dry and breezy days, a chance for
  thunderstorms returns to the local area during the evening
  hours next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms rolling off the high plains impacted
mainly western and southern portions of the forecast area
overnight as they weakened after moving into a more stable
environment. Additional activity west of the local area early
this morning is expected to follow suit, weakening as they
reach our western fringes, bringing mainly clouds and some
isolated showers/non-severe thunderstorms through the morning
hours.

Later today, expect mostly dry conditions to overtake the local
area, albeit an isolated thunderstorm or two (as indicated in
some of the CAMS) cannot be completely ruled out. That said, the
better chances for storms will come during the very late
afternoon through the evening hours as the next upper level
disturbance begins to impact the local area. While instability
is still fairly limiting, there remains sufficient shear to
justify at least the possibility for a strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm this evening/tonight, so continued with this
mention in the morning HWO.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will then continue
across the local area through early Friday morning, before the
upper level pattern begins to shift - resulting in upper level
ridging, warmer temperatures, dry weather and increasing breezes
over the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A shortwave disturbance moved through the area this morning and
early afternoon and brought a broad swath of light to moderate
rain showers. Fortunately, instability was lacking with this
system and kept severe weather potential at bay. Subsidence
behind this wave has allowed for some clearing skies and
temperatures to rise into the 70s. This clearing may allow for a
few showers or weak storms to pop up through early evening, but
lack of stronger instability and lingering effects of the
subsidence should keep most locations dry.

Next few days look to feature the same general mid to upper
level pattern in which an upper low spins over the northern
Plains into Upper MS Valley and ridging builds over the SW and W
Coast. This should lead to zonal to NW flow for the central
Plains. Modest and moist upslope flow should allow for daily
thunderstorm development along the High Plains each afternoon,
which will then roll E/SE during the evening and overnight hours
with the mean flow and along a stout instability gradient.
Appears the primary instability axis will remain mostly W/SW/S
of the area each of the next few days, which should keep our
severe threat fairly limited. Appears the best potential for
scattered to widespread rain and embedded storms will be with a
disturbance Wed night into Thu AM. It`s late June and there`s at
least SOME elevated instability and shear, so the various
Marginal Risks on the SPC outlooks make sense...but again, not
expecting anything real organized or widespread for our local
forecast area.

Upper pattern will undergo some changes late in the week, and
especially this weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridging
slides east in response to a new trough developing along the
West Coast. So after several days of seasonably cool highs in
the 70s to lower 80s, should see a significant jump in temps by
Friday and esp. over the weekend. In fact, latest NBM gives
widespread mid 80s to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday - which
will feel quite steamy given seasonably high dew points
currently forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F. The
relatively moist ground from recent rainfall and
evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn will probably
support even higher values in the low to mid 70s for areas E of
Hwy 281 towards the Hwy 81 corridor. Not sure this uptick in
heat and humidity will necessarily rise to advisory levels (heat
indices of 105+), and there will be some southerly breezes to
help bring SOME relief...but it`s a summer weekend, so keep in
mind for those outdoor activities.

Generally speaking, the upper pattern may become more supportive
for severe thunderstorms at some point in the Saturday night
(low level jet/warm air advection) to Tuesday time frame as the
western trough migrates into the Rockies and eventually the
central and northern Plains. This low will likely force at
least a weak to moderate cold front into the region Sunday night
or Monday...which could then linger into Tuesday per recent
deterministic and ensemble trends. This general evolution should
support SOME overlap in seasonably strong deep layer shear
associated with ejecting mid/upper jet streak and large
reservoir of strong to extreme instability, somewhere in the
region during this time frame. Now, does this overlap occur
locally or perhaps further N...and what exactly will be the
timing of the upper trough and surface fronts...these details
still need to be worked out and are critical to pinning down
sensible weather details this time of year. Machine learning
guidance supports the idea of 2-3 day window of increased
severe weather potential, but remains quite broad in it`s
footprint, and muted on any higher end probabilities. Again,
something to monitor as we approach the busy summer weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered cloud cover at both terminals this afternoon. This
evening into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to enter the area from the west. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be at KEAR between 02-06z. There is a fairly
tight east-west gradient in thunderstorm activity, and while
KGRI has the potential for thunderstorms, it is less than that
of KEAR overnight. After the initial thunderstorms some
stratiform precip may impact the terminals and linger overnight
before dissipating before sunrise. Winds will remain light and
variable, and when slightly stronger with a easterly component.
There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms beyond
this TAF period into Thursday afternoon and evening, but this
looks scattered in nature, and not well organized. Ceilings will
be be VFR for much of the period, but some MVFR ceilings are
possible with the thunderstorms.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion