Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

752
FXUS63 KOAX 172334
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds linger this evening. Winds become light
  as high pressure builds into the area tonight.

- A cooler, quiet day is expected Thursday, then widespread
  precipitation chances return Saturday. A few storms could be
  strong to severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The wind advisory for portions of the area has been cancelled.
Wind speeds have begun to decrease this evening as heating wanes
and the trough begins to move off to the east. A few gusts to
30-35 mph remain possible over the next couple hours before
winds become light tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis reveal a mid- to upper-
level trough pushing into the Upper Midwest, with an impressive mid-
and upper-level jet rounding the base of the trough. This system
pushed a deepening surface low across the area this morning, along
with a trailing cold front that swept southward across the region.
Behind the front, warm, dry and windy conditions will prevail
through the afternoon. Despite a period of CAA, highs are still
expected to reach the 80s in most locations today. The main
concern will be strong post-frontal winds as a tightening
surface pressure gradient combines with deeper mixing into a
stronger winds aloft. Northwesterly wind gusts up to 40-50 mph
are expected, with the strongest gusts across northeast Nebraska
where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM.

Gusty winds combined with afternoon relative humidity values falling
into the 20-30% range will bring very high fire weather concerns,
especially to portions of northeast Nebraska, where 1000-hour fuels
have yet to green up. Winds will gradually diminish through the
evening and overnight period. A few light showers may develop
overnight into Thursday morning along an area of surface
convergence, though a dry sub-cloud layer should limit how much
precipitation reaches the ground. PoPs only peak around 15-20%.

Continued northwesterly flow aloft will filter a cooler and drier
air mass into the region tomorrow. Thursday afternoon highs are
expected to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s, making for a
pleasant mid-June day across the area.

Friday and Beyond...

A transient corridor of surface high pressure and brief mid-level
ridging will slide across the area early Friday, bringing quiet
conditions and helping temperatures rebound into the mid 80s. A weak
shortwave passage Friday afternoon/evening will bring 15-30% PoPs to
the area.

By Saturday, a shortwave impulse pushing through the Front Range
will help develop a surface low over Colorado/Wyoming before
tracking eastward across Nebraska through the day. This system is
expected to bring the next chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
to the area as moisture transport increases and a modestly
destabilized warm sector develops. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach the mid 80s. This will be a day to monitor closely as the
system approaches and details come into better focus. Current
guidance depicts storms developing to our west during the afternoon
before pushing eastward into the area during the evening and
overnight period, when PoPs peak around 80-95%. SPC continues to
highlight much of Nebraska in a 15% severe weather probability for
Saturday.

PoPs will gradually taper off through Sunday as cooler temperatures
filter in behind the system, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Monday into next week, highs are expected to remain in the 70s to
low 80s, with periodic 15-30% PoPs as weak disturbances track near
the area. The cool and wet conditions are expected to stick
around as the CPC`s 6-10 day outlook highlights the area for
temperatures leaning below normal (40-50% probability) and
precipitation totals leaning above normal (33-40% probability).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds continue behind an earlier cold front. Wind
speeds should gradually decrease this evening into tonight as
surface high pressure builds into the region. There is a low
chance of a band of showers across portions of eastern Nebraska
overnight. It remains uncertain if these showers will impact OMA
or OFK. If showers do impact a terminal, little to no change to
aviation conditions is expected. Northwest winds will continue
into Thursday, though wind speeds should be relatively light.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Chehak
DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

977
FXUS63 KGID 172331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The overall-biggest story/concern of the next week still
  appears to be a threat for severe thunderstorms and possibly
  also at least localized heavy rainfall/flooding centered on
  Saturday afternoon-night...but this is still far enough out in
  time that plenty of questions remain in the details.

- Prior to Saturday, a few more chances for rain (at least minor
  rain chances) have worked themselves into our
  forecast...including a chance for light showers/sprinkles late
  tonight into Thursday morning, and then a chance for mainly
  isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms for Friday daytime
  (this was previously a dry forecast period).

- Beyond Saturday night, much of the Sunday-Wednesday time frame
  is "littered" with various, low-confidence chances for showers
  and/or mainly weak thunderstorms. Although WAY out in time,
  longer-range models at least hint at a possible return to
  severe storm chances around Wed-Thurs of next week?

- Temperature-wise: certainly nothing out of the ordinary for
  mid-late June, and most certainly no big heat concerns. Highs
  on most days in the mid 70s-mid 80s...and lows on most nights
  in the mid 50s-mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No big/major changes of note, with a few of the minor changes
  (mainly addition of a few rain chances prior to Friday night)
  outlined in Key Message above.

- Latest trends/thoughts regarding the Saturday afternoon-night
  severe storm/heavy rain threat:
We are still 24-36 hours away from this time frame getting into
the range of most higher-res models, and as a result plenty of
uncertainties remain in the finer details including most favored
parts of our forecast area (CWA) along with storm
intensity/threats. That being said, a glance at medium range
ECMWF/GFS solutions suggest MAYBE a slightly-reduced intensity
of convective environment (mainly somewhat lower
CAPE/instability values) compared to 24 hours ago...especially
within northern/northeast portions of our CWA. Although far too
soon to "take literally", the last few hours of the 12Z RRFS
(which goes through Saturday afternoon) suggests we could have
at least spotty convection (maybe strong/severe?) develop over
our CWA during the afternoon, while a more organized/larger-
scale storm complex develops over western NE/KS by late
afternoon that would then in theory track into our CWA during
the evening (potential damaging wind threat). That`s honestly as
much "detail" this forecaster is willing to give for an event
that is still mostly 72+ hours away, but at least trend-wise,
there is SOME suggestion (also supported by CSU machine-learning
guidance) that our southern/western CWA may end up being more
"under the gun" than our northern/eastern counties.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Wed. June
 24..but heavily focused on tonight-Sunday)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
Certainly no big surprises today, as fully expected it`s been a
fairly windy day by mid-June standards...with sustained north-
northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH, and
occasional gusts reaching 40 MPH (especially in our north).
Under widespread sunshine, high temps are on track to top out
low 80s north...to mid 80s central (including Tri Cities)...to
upper 80s-low 90s within counties along/south of the KS border.
As detailed over the last 24 hours, we have deemed grasses
(fuels) to be at least slightly "too green" to justify any
higher-end fire weather concerns, but with relative humidity
(RH) bottoming out as low as 20-25% mainly in our far southern
and western CWA this afternoon-early evening, we continue to
highlight near-critical fire weather concerns in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data confirm a shortwave
trough and accompanying seasonably-strong upper level jet streak
tracking through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...fueling a
Moderate Risk of severe storms well to our east centered over
IL/IN. Meanwhile at the surface, the main surface low pressure
center (around 992 millibars) is tracking through southeast MN,
with modest cold air advection/subsidence on the backside of the
system driving our gusty north-northwest winds here locally.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although mentioned as a possibility here 24 hours ago, we have
now officially introduced either a "slight chance of showers" or
"slight chance of sprinkles" to mainly the northern half of our
CWA (as far south as roughly Highway 6) for the post-midnight
hours. These rain chances are best described as minor-but-
tricky, as especially the HRRR (with support from other models)
paints a very narrow, west-east oriented stripe of light
measurable showers across mainly our far northern counties,
while other models (such as NAMNest) are more generous bringing
at least spotty activity farther south into our area. Our
current slight/20% rain chances in our far north may ultimately
not be nearly high enough, but at least we now have some rain
mention, and again, we are not talking heavy rainfall either.
The narrow/banded nature of this precip chance is due to upper
dynamics more typically seen during the colder season (intense
upper level jet/mid-level frontogenesis). Farther south, kept
the forecast dry overnight over our southern CWA/KS counties, as
any "true" elevated thunderstorm activity should remain at least
a few counties south of our CWA (mainly south of I-70).

In other departments, winds will steadily drop off toward
sunset, with gusts easing under 20 MPH most areas by 8-9 PM, and
then averaging only 5-10 MPH from the north-northwest through
the remainder of the night. Low temps are a little tricky
depending on how abundant/thick incoming mid-high level clouds
are, but have most areas bottoming out somewhere between 56-61.


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
First of all, those same light/pesky rain chances that start
late tonight have been lingered through mid-late Thursday
morning in our latest forecast...but for now simply in the form
of a "slight chance of sprinkles" for our entire CWA. Confidence
is just too low to introduce a measurable rain chance (PoP) at
this point in time (although a FEW areas could end up picking up
a few hundredths of an inch)...and confidence in
location/placement is too low to "rule out" any areas
either...with the HRRR mainly focused across our
northern/eastern counties while the NAMNest is more broad-
brushed in coverage. In summary: do not be caught off guard by s
few passing sprinkles or light rain showers Thurs AM.

By afternoon, high confidence in a return to dry conditions
CWA-wide as clouds decrease and give way to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Although not as windy as today for sure,
north/northwesterly wind speeds were nudged up slightly from
previous forecast, with much of the day now looking like
sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts around 20 MPH. High temps were nudged
up very slightly, but should still end up 3-8 degrees cooler
than today...ranging from upper 70s-low 80s in most Nebraska
counties, and mid 80s in our KS counties along with Furnas
County area.

Thursday evening-overnight, maintained a dry forecast as any
possible late-night showers are most favored to develop at least
slightly north or northeast of our CWA. Low temps mid-upper 50s.


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although these 24 hours should be MOSTLY DRY, weak upper waves
working through west-northwest flow aloft, in combination with
at least modest levels of instability returning northward into
our area (mainly elevated instability) has resulted in the
introduction of low-end shower/thunderstorm chances for the
daytime, and the continuation of chances for Friday night.
Although SPC has refrained from putting any of our CWA in a
Marginal Risk at this time, CAPE/deep layer wind shear appears
sufficient to possibly support a few stronger storms with mainly
a smaller hail threat (something to watch). Temp-wise, highs are
aimed very similar to Thursday (low-mid 80s), but with slightly
warmer lows Fri night mainly upper 50s-mid 60s.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Already covered some ATTEMPTED convective/severe thunderstorm
threat details in the "big picture" comments section above
(refer to that if you skipped over it), but the bottom line is
that especially the late afternoon-overnight hours remain a
concern for severe storms and possibly localized flooding as as
low amplitude upper wave interacts with an increasingly
moist/unstable airmass marked by surface dewpoints rising into
at least the mid 60s...with lower-level forcing provided by a
strong southerly low level jet. Hopefully more exact
timing/location/intensity details gradually become more clear as
this time frame enters the scope of higher-res models over the
next few days. High temps again similar to previous
days...mainly low-mid 80s but with upper 80s far
south/southwest.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Compared to 24 hours ago, latest ECMWF/GFS are more suggestive
that any severe storm threat should be shunted south-through-
west of our CWA in the wake of a weak cold front (likely
convective-outflow driven) from Saturday night. That being said,
at least low chances for showers/weak storms remain in the
forecast.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Keeping it very broad-based/basic here, the ECMWF/GFS keep us
under persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft, with occasional
low amplitude waves passing by. As a result, it should be mostly
dry but with occasional shower/thunderstorm chances. Severe
weather wise, instability looks fairly low for Mon-Tues but
MAYBE picks back up for Wednesday. Obviously a LOT of
uncertainty in any kind of mid- week severe chances next week.
Temperature-wise, highs all three days are currently aimed mid
70s-low 80s for most of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period, though will be watching how a band of sprinkles/showers
evolves closer to/after midnight. At this time, the main impact
from precipitation is expected to remain north of the terminal
areas...so kept mention out for now. At a minimum, expecting a
thicker deck of clouds around 10k feet to work their way into
the area through the overnight hours. Gusty winds from this
afternoon will continue to diminish this evening, with speeds
closer to 10 MPH through the overnight hours. Winds through the
rest of the period are expected to remain generally
northwesterly...with gusts near 20-25 MPH returning for the
afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion