61°F
Updated:
6/12/2026
00:42:46am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
449 FXUS63 KOAX 120508 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and storm chances return early Saturday (60-80% chance) with another chance for severe storms from 3 to 8 AM. - Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday. - Next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday with much uncertainty in the forecast details beyond Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Mostly clear skies with northwesterly winds keeping temperatures very pleasant this evening. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper-level pattern well, with a broad trough over the Northern Plains and the wave that lead to damaging storms across our area this morning is currently wreaking havoc over northern Illinois this evening. We see weak ridging pass across our area on Friday keeping skies clear. We lose the cooling effect of the northerly winds, though, with a shift back to southerly flow by the afternoon. This will allow temperatures to warm back into the mid 80s, though humidity will remain low. Friday night we`ll see the western side of the ridge start to bring moisture back up into our region from the Gulf. With the nocturnal amplification of the LLJ, we`ll see the atmosphere destabilize above the boundary layer Friday night ahead of a shortwave riding across the nearly zonal flow at 250-mb over the Central Plains. This will trigger another round of overnight storms early Saturday morning. Current guidance is leaning toward more of an early-morning threat for strong to severe storms, which would be elevated lending to a greater hail, wind, and flooding threat. If timing slows down, we`d see an increased potential for surface-based storms which means tornadoes. Right now the greater potential for surface-based storms is over eastern Kansas into Missouri. Sunday and beyond... Once storms clear on Saturday or Saturday night, a cooler Canadian air mass settles back over our region with mild, dry weather expected through Tuesday. The upper-level zonal flow in place over the weekend cedes to a strong trough dropping out of Alberta, deepening across the Upper-Mississippi River Valley Monday into Tuesday. To the west, we see ridging build up over the PacNW, expanding eastward into the Great Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. As this occurs, we`ll see temperatures trending back upward Tuesday into Wednesday. A rigorous shortwave rides down into the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon/evening, leading to the development of a broad area of low pressure over the High Plains. As this shifts eastward and deepens Tuesday night, we see the development of a strong nocturnal LLJ pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This will advect significant moisture back into our area bringing back chances for nocturnal showers and storms into early Wednesday. Model guidance diverges significantly in how the upper-level pattern responds behind this mid-week system, meaning significant uncertainty in the forecast toward the latter half of next week at this time. Guidance trends of warming temperatures seem likely with the ridge continuing to shift eastward over the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with clear skies overnight and a few mid-level clouds Friday afternoon. Winds will be light and westerly to southwesterly overnight before becoming southerly and gusting around 20 kts during the afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
882 FXUS63 KGID 120518 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1218 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may bring a few strong storms to the area. The severe threat, however, looks to remain limited through Saturday morning. - A slight risk of severe weather covers only a few southeast portions of the area Saturday afternoon. This threat is highly conditional based on the timing of the front on Saturday. - Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the 90s to potentially the low 100s in a handful of places by midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Tonight and Friday... Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low 80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal, generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher pressure marching in behind last night`s front has helped clear out most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon. Friday Night into Saturday... A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over Canada`s Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms. Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture will rebound from today. The current forecast projects dewpoints to only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at least initially, generally not all that supportive. A few of these overnight storms may linger into Saturday morning as the front passes through the area. A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Beyond... Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs (10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are likely to persist through most of the forecast period. Clear skies and light northwesterly winds will veer tonight and become southerly by sunrise. Winds will increase throughout the day, gusting to as high as 28 kts in the afternoon. Skies will be clear throughout the morning and early afternoon, with the potential for a few high clouds during the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind shear is possible at the end of the forecast period, as a SSW nocturnal low-level jet develops and the surface winds start to weaken after sunset. However, confidence in the magnitude, height, and coverage of this shear is low and has thus not been included in the TAF at this time. While thunderstorms are unlikely to impact the terminals during the forecast period, there is a nonzero chance at the very end of the forecast period (6Z and beyond). Again, this thunderstorm chance was not included in the TAF due to the low confidence of impacts during this forecast period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Scott
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