34°F
Updated:
4/19/2026
02:49:22am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
432 FXUS63 KOAX 190532 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with temperatures near freezing in parts of northeast Nebraska. - Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to extreme fire danger again for Monday and Wednesday. - The next good chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives during the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 The broad upper-level trough that has been responsible for active weather across the United States will finally begin to move into the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. In it`s wake, an upper- level ridge will gradually build into the Great Plains through early next week. A warming trend begins on Sunday as this occurs. It will start cold on Sunday with near freezing temperatures across most of the area. By afternoon, temperatures rebound into the 60s for much of the area. A weak disturbance will also pass north of the area, increasing north winds. This disturbance does little to impede the warming trend. Temperatures start in the 30s on Monday before quickly climbing through the 70s during the afternoon. Increasing southerly winds will help achieve this, but with dry conditions in place, very high fire danger is expected to occur. Temperatures climb further still on Tuesday as 80s return to the forecast. Surface high pressure near the area should help keep winds light, limiting fire danger. By Wednesday lee troughing ramps up as our next upper-level trough begins to approach the Great Plains. Increasing southerly winds through the afternoon and strong winds by evening ahead of any meaningful moisture return will likely cause another day of very high to perhaps extreme fire danger. Thursday onward sees the beginnings of a pattern shift for the region. The aforementioned next trough is currently forecast to eject into the northern Great Plains on Thursday. There remains some model uncertainty on the exact placement and strength of this feature, but a general agreement is beginning to develop. In this event, an area of low pressure is likely to develop and lift north towards Manitoba by Thursday evening, a cold front will extend south of the low. It appears likely that the cold front will be near our area by Thursday evening. Along and ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected. With it being mid-April, severe weather with any thunderstorms is at least a consideration, though those details remain unclear. In any case, this front is anticipated to move through the region Thursday night into Friday. Cooler temperatures are likely in the wake of this front. There may be lingering precipitation potential also. As this trough continues east by next weekend, a return to warmer and drier weather is probable. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 VFR conditions persist at the terminals through the forecast period. High pressure moves into the region overnight, with winds remaining light. Expect winds to shift to the northwest after sunrise Sunday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
945 FXUS63 KGID 190717 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather today with highs in the 60s and 70s and light winds. - Near-critical fire weather conditions possible Monday. - Above normal temperatures continue through mid week with highs in the upper 70s to low 90s. - Next chance for precipitation (15-35%) arrives Wednesday night/Thursday but the best chances look to be north/east of the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Clear skies and light winds have resulted in temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s this morning, coldest across northwestern portions of the area. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the mid 20s in the northwest to just above freezing in the southeast. Aloft, a ridge currently sits over West Coast, with a trough centered over the Midwest, placing the area under northwesterly flow. A very pleasant day is expected under this northwesterly flow. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Monday ahead of an embedded shortwave trough. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s with mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds gusting 20-25mph combined with low afternoon relative humidity will result in near-critical fire weather conditions across the area. If winds trend higher than the current forecast, fire weather headlines may be needed. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Warm and breezy conditions continue through the middle of the week. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 90s. Wednesday looks to be the windiest day of the forecast period with southerly winds gusting over 40mph possible. The next chance for rain arrives Wednesday night-Thursday, and continue into the weekend. Ensembles continue to indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be north/east of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 The gusty northwest winds, dragging in a cooler airmass today, have helped keep highs from escaping out of the upper 50s to low 60s. As result of the gusty conditions with dry relative humidity, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8PM tonight. Please refer to the fire weather section below for more more information. Winds this evening and tonight will become light. The calm conditions will once again allow temperatures to drop down near to just under freezing (Overnight Lows: upper 20s to low 30s). The coldest temperatures overall will be concentrated towards the northwest portions of the area. Locations near and mainly west of HWY-281 will have the best potential for temperatures to drop below freezing for a few hours tonight (1-6 hours). Given the slightly warmer temperatures compared the the night previous and given the short residence time of the freezing temperatures, a freeze warning was not concentrated at this time. Though the very light winds could break way for a few areas of frost formation (best chances northeast of the Tri-Cities), the lowered RH values overnight (40-65% max) is expected to limit the overall coverage of frost. The exit of a upper-level Central to North Central Plains trough with an upstream building ridge west of the area, will establish northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week. Temperatures will be on the up and up through Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s and 70s Sunday, upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and the mid- to-upper 80s Tuesday. Light easterly winds will setup Sunday among a weak surface pressure gradient. Pressure falls to the west with rising pressure to the east on Monday will help sandwich in southerly winds. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the broad ridging pattern transitions over to a slow approaching trough. Though 20-35% PoPs return Wednesday night, the slightly better chances for the week (25-45%) lie Thursday. It is advised not to raise one`s hopes quiet yet on meaningful precipitation accumulations as early on QPF forecast keep the area mainly under 0.25" of precipitation (several completely dry areas towards the south and west). The best potential will be concentrated to the north and east. Besides the weak precipitation chances, stronger and gustier winds look to return to the area Wednesday through Friday afternoon. These stronger winds will likely come as a surface cyclone sweeps through the Northern Plains. Temperatures behind a cold front Thursday will look to knock highs out of the upper 70s and 80s for Friday (upper 50s to mid 60s). Drier conditions with periods of gusty winds will keep fire weather concerns in and around the area next week. For more information regarding the fire weather potential, please refer to the fire weather section below. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable winds are forecast through the mid morning hours, though winds will be largely southwesterly. After noon, winds shift to the northeast and increase to around 8-10kts. Around sunset, winds shift to the southeast sustained around 10kts. Mostly clear skies expected with a few high clouds possible Sunday afternoon/evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Gusty northwest winds today blowing between 15-25MPH and gusting up to 35MPH will continue through the afternoon to early evening hours. The strongest winds today have set up along/north of Interstate 80. Despite highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s, dewpoints in the single digits and teens have resulted in relative humidity values as low as 12-22%. As result of the dry conditions and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions have set up across the entire area. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the full area until 8PM. While winds drop off after sunset due to a loss of atmospheric mixing, relative humidity values will be slower to improve, remaining below 40-65% overnight. Fire weather concerns will be limited Sunday as lighter winds will generally gust below 20mph. Relative humidity values of 10-20% are possible along and southwest of the Tri-Cities during the afternoon. Near-critical conditions will potentially develop across portions of Phillips/Smith/Rooks/Osborne counties where gusts of up to 20-25mph can`t be ruled out. Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible across at least a portion of the area Monday-Friday due to the overlap of low humidity (10-20% and breezy winds (gusts at least 20-30mph). The strongest winds and likely worst fire weather conditions for the week should occur Wednesday-Friday. The main forecast feature that will determine the fire weather potential each day will be where the driest conditions set up each afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis FIRE WEATHER...
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