Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

787
FXUS63 KOAX 310537
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of strong storms will exit the area by 4 AM Friday. A
  few could produce gusty winds and heavy rain across far
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in
  the lower to mid 80s.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Still some stronger storms working their way through the area
with some 40-50+ mph gusts, but the severe weather threat is
generally waning as outflow continues to surge southeastward
ahead of the line. Storms should exit the area by 3-4 AM with
guidance and satellite imagery hinting that we see a little
patchy fog and low cloud development behind them as the anvil
clears out into Friday morning. We`ll remain under cyclonic flow
aloft and on the back side of a surface low over IA through the
day, with guidance suggesting potential for a few spotty
showers, but nothing too impactful from that standpoint. Perhaps
more noteworthy will be the strong northerly winds. Model
soundings suggest at least 40+ kts at the top of the mixed
layer. In addition, EPS guidance shows mean wind gusts of 40-50
mph with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 50 mph. Really it will
come down to how deep we`re able to mix, and given the expected
cloud cover and precip, lean toward shallower mixing and
slightly lighter winds, but still expect 40+ mph gusts at times.
Current forecast has a few counties sitting right around Wind
Advisory criteria, but given lower confidence in degree of
mixing, going to hold off for now. Otherwise, we`ll be much
cooler with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday will remain mild with dry weather expected as the
trough/low push farther east and surface high pressure builds
in. We`ll start to warm back up Sunday with strengthening
southerly flow on the back side of the high and upper level
ridging building back in. Expect highs in the 80s to around 90
on Sunday, followed by mid 80s to mid 90s on Monday.

By Monday night into Tuesday, we`ll start to see influence of a
larger scale trough to our north while a cold front starts
edging southward. Still a decent amount of spread on exact
timing of when that front gets here, but when it does, it`ll
bring our next chance of showers and storms. Guidance also
suggests it stalls over or just south of the forecast area,
while several bits of shortwave energy slide through through the
end of the week. So in general, expect a somewhat active week
with on and off shower and storm chances with temperatures in
the 80s in the northern part of the area and 90s in the south.
Machine learning severe weather guidance also suggests at least
some low end severe storm chances at times (5-10%), but still
lots of details to work out between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and storms will continue to push southeast out of the
area early in the period, clearing the TAF sites by 7-8Z. MVFR
to perhaps brief IFR ceilings are expected to stick around or
redevelop overnight and linger into early Friday afternoon
before scattering out. Could also see a few spotty showers
Friday afternoon, mainly at OMA and east. Otherwise, winds will
become northwesterly to northerly and significantly increase in
strength, gusting 25-35+ kts by around 12-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

029
FXUS63 KGID 302333
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of strong to severe storms is on track to cross from
  northwest to southeast across the full area between mainly 7PM
  and 1AM tonight.

- The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging
  wind gusts up to 60-70MPH. Though not the main concern, hail
  up to the size of quarters may also be possible.

- The next chance of precipitation (20-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night for central Nebraska.

- Highs will range the 80s on Friday and Saturday, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of the new week (upper 80s and
  90s).

- Northerly wind gusts Friday afternoon could peak as high as
  30-45MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026


Tonight...

Steady southerly winds gusting as high as 20MPH early this afternoon
have helped advect in a warmer and more humid airmass today (70s to
low 80s dewpoints). Despite the excessive cloud coverage for most of
the day so far, temperatures still look to remain mostly on track to
reach the mid 80s to low 90s for much of central Nebraska.
Temperatures across some north central Kansas locations and far
southwest Nebraska areas may peak as high as the mid to upper 90s
today. The main story, however, will be of the potential for severe
weather this evening.

An upper-level shortwave trough ejecting out from eastern
Colorado/Wyoming this afternoon has lead to some mid-level pressure
falls as well as some vorticity and cold air advection across the
region. The warming temperatures at the surface paired with cooling
aloft has helped increase instability/buoyancy (up to 2,000-
3,500J/kg of MUCAPE). A 1004mb surface low deepening across central
Nebraska this evening will help steer frontogenesis across central
Nebraska and central Kansas. A cold front emerging from this process
will in turn help develop a cluster of storms. Storms organizing
into a line this afternoon, will be expected to drive southeast
through much of the area between mainly 7PM and 1AM tonight. As of
2PM today, this line of storms looks to be already taking shape in
cherry county in Nebraska based on the latest radar reflectivity
returns and the agitated cumulus observed on satellite.

A few of these storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with damaging winds being the primary concern. Given the
presence of modest deep layer shear (25-40MPH) with sufficient
instability and moisture, the base ingredients will be met for
severe storm characteristics. Though hail up to the size of quarters may
still be possible within a few of the stronger/taller storms, the
high freezing levels with more unfavorable mid-level lapse rates (5-
6C/km), should generally keep the hail threat more limited tonight.
In addition, though heavy downpours will be expected within several
of these storms (1.5-2" PWATS), given their fairly progressive
nature, the overall flooding threat should remain limited. The Storm
Prediction Center now includes the full area in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather.


Friday through Wednesday...

Following the exit of the storms tonight, the forecast remains dry
until Tuesday night (20-50% chances for central Nebraska). This
drier pattern will come as southwest U.S. ridging expands northeast
into the Central Plains over the weekend. The surface low pulling
east and away on Friday will leave behind gusty northerly winds that
may peak as high as 30-45MPH during the afternoon. Meanwhile, drier
and relatively "cooler" temperatures with keep highs peaking in the
80s for both Friday and Saturday. Higher pressure eventually
settling back in over the weekend will lighten winds with
directions becoming southerly again by Sunday. The start of the new
week will bring warming temperatures once more with highs returning
back to the mid 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A line of strong to severe storms will impact both terminals
during the mid-evening hours...gradually tapering off around
31/05-31-07Z. Winds will then increase out of the north behind
the associated cold front after daybreak Friday, with gusts
30KTS+ possible aft 31/15Z. Expect temporary MVFR CIGS with
TSRAs to start this evening, with solid MVFR CIGS filling in
behind the storms overnight along with the possibility for some
MVFR VSBYS and light BR as well towards daybreak. CIGS should
clear during the mid to late afternoon hours with VFR conditions
returning to both terminals on or before 31/23Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion