Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

102
FXUS63 KOAX 211043
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-30% chance of some showers and storms through 10
  AM Tuesday, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A
  few could produce gusty winds or small hail, but severe
  weather is not expected.

- Cooler weather returns by Wednesday with high temperatures
  falling into the mid 70s to mid 80s through Friday. There
  will be increasing chances for showers and storms Wednesday
  through Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend, with widespread
  90s by Sunday..

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Aside from a couple pop up storms earlier, it had been pretty
quiet across the region as the well-advertised cold front
continued its southward progress across the area. That said, a
few storms had started to pop up in vicinity of the front in
southwest Iowa as of 1030 PM. With the front quickly scouring
out instability, these should be fairly short-lived, but a few
could produce some small hail or gusty winds through 1-2 AM.
Guidance then suggests we`ll see more development well behind
the front after midnight as some weak shortwave energy clips the
area and we see a little strengthening frontogenesis as
northerly low level flow ramps up. However, with lack of
instability, not expecting any severe weather with these, and
even lightning strikes may be few and far between.

That precip should exit south/dissipate toward 9-10 AM and give
way to a warm, but much more "manageable" day, with highs in
the mid 80s to around 90 and a nice north breeze. The HRRR also
continues to show smoke moving in behind the front, but keeps
near-surface concentrations rather low, with upstream
observations currently showing no visibility reductions, so
thinking it`ll manifest mainly as some milky looking skies.

We`ll be much cooler Wednesday through Friday, as the upper
level ridge axis gets pushed well back to our west and a
secondary cold front passes through. Highs will fall into the
mid 70s to lower 80s all three days. In addition, we`ll have
several chances for more widespread showers and storms as
various shortwaves push through the area. The first now looks to
arrive Wednesday afternoon with a second stronger and more
persistent stream of shortwave energy arriving early Thursday
and lingering into early Friday. Chances are generally in the
40-80% range at times through this period, with the highest
being mostly in southeast NE, where consensus paints a 30- 50%
chance of at least 1" of rain. Definitely still some timing
kinks to work out as we get closer, as there will likely be some
occasional breaks in the rain and people will certainly want to
get out and enjoy the temperatures in the 70s.

Unfortunately, those nicer temperatures will be short-lived as
the upper level ridge axis pushes back eastward this weekend.
Expect highs to climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s on
Saturday followed by widespread 90s Sunday into next week. There
could also be a couple additional storm chances in there as the
warm and humid airmass returns and a few weak shortwaves ripple
through the flow, but still lots of details to work out there.
As far as severe weather chances go, various machine learning
algorithms generally keep us around or under 5% over the next 7
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours,
with the morning showers and storms being more widespread than
short-term guidance suggests. Even still, the band of scattered
showers and storms will continue shifting southward over the
next two hours, with KLNK completely in the clear by 12-13z.
Later this morning, winds will increase out of the north with
afternoon gusts to 20-25 kts that last until 00z before dropping
off to below 10 kts. Additional rain chances will drift into the
area from the west at the latter few hours of the TAF period
into the next, but should be more widespread than this morning`s
activity.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

539
FXUS63 KGID 211133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beyond a rogue weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon, the
  main potential for precipitation will come Wednesday (15-60%
  chances) and Thursday (40-90% chances).

- Two rounds of showers (Wednesday morning to afternoon &
  overnight Wednesday to Thursday) will be expected to deposit
  between 0.25-1" of precipitation across at least 75% of the
  area.

- The highest precipitation probabilities and amounts both days
  will be concentrated towards the northern portions of the
  area, especially for areas north of I-80.

- Temperatures taking a dip Wednesday and Thursday (mid 70s and
  80s) should rebound over the weekend (90s to low 100s possible
  SAT-MON).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026


Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, north to
northeasterly winds will help knock temperatures down by around 10-
15 degrees today compared to Monday (highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s). Though these winds will be fairly light to steady at times (5-
15MPH), the "cooler" and drier airmass being mixed in should be
enough to keep the upper 90 to 100 degree temperatures away through
at least Friday. Aloft, height/pressure falls east of the area have
pushed the upper-level ridge back westward some, setting up
northwest flow overhead. This flow will become important to
steering any showers and storms that develop inside or northwest
of the area across the next few days (mainly for Wednesday and
Thursday).

In terms of the precipitation potential across the next few days, a
few rounds of mainly showers, though a weak storm or two could
become embedded, will be expected to pass though several portions of
the area. The shower/storm potential for today remains fairly limited
outside of a rogue developing non-severe storm or two. The better
and more meaningful rainfall potential will not come until
Wednesday and Thursday.

A cluster of mainly showers will be expected to slide down from the
eastern Wyoming and western/northern Nebraska region overnight
tonight. A few bands of rain may reach far north to northwest
portions of the area sometime Wednesday morning. This cluster of
mainly showers will march its way across several central Nebraska
locations throughout most of the afternoon. A brief lull in
precipitation is expected to fall during the later afternoon to
evening hours ahead a second and possibly more widespread cluster of
showers arriving overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

As for the first round of Precipitation (Wednesday morning to
afternoon), the best potential for rain will be concentrated
towards the north with precipitation chances of 40-65% held across
areas north of I-80. The latest precipitation accumulation
estimation projects that up to 0.25-0.5" of precipitation may fall
across these locations through the day Wednesday (mostly likely
scenario). It is also important to note that HREF probabilistic
guidance suggests that there is still a 30-40% chance for any
individual location to see less than 0.25" with a 20-30% chance for
locations to receive accumulations higher than 0.5". The rest of
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas areas will have a
lower potential of seeing rain (15-40% precipitation chances) due to
the shower`s more northern favored track. Accumulations should also
naturally decrease south of the interstate as probabilities of
exceeding 0.25" of precip decrease to to 10-30% chance with only a
10% chance of exceeding 0.5".

A second and possibly more widespread cluster of showers looks more
likely to come overnight Wednesday into Thursday along with the
passage of shortwave disturbance aloft. The probability of
precipitation increases to 40-90% across the full area with higher-
end amounts of precipitation increasing up to just over 0.75" across
the period Wednesday night through Thursday. Locations north of the
interstate have a 40-65% chance of seeing amounts exceed 0.75" with
only a 15-40% chance of exceedance across the remainder of the area
(far south central Nebraska and north central Kansas). More
details regarding the exact timing will become more clear once this
event comes in range of the short-term high-resoultion models.

Beyond the precipitation potential mainly Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures should continue to cool some with highs expected to
range the mid 70s and 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds out of
the east to southeast will likely blow between 10-15 MPH with
gusts as high as 25-30 MPH possible across the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this
afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in
place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure
remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS,
roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends
up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a
low pressure system working its way east into the western Great
Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is
helping drive a surface cold front south through the
Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into
SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little
issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making
things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which
currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread
heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA-
wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this
evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...


This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the
region this evening and tonight...and while it`s arriving too
late to provide any help with today`s temperatures, it may aid
in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon
and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing
from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far
northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our
area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question.
While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms
will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm
mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The
area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but
any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail
and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on
Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether
or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing
in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to
the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity
developing along an elevated front lagging behind across
northern portions of the area. Because there are differences
with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after
03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday
with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some
uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated
showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does
linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the
cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds,
which look to be northeasterly through the day...and
temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s
today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the
NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast
dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a
difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the
forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time
frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during
that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of
waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level
disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps
already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances
through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half
of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the
edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through
later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the
potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing
the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south.
Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this
point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area
not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming
weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as
models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across
central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation
chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the
70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few showers and non-severe storms linger around KEAR/KGRI
this morning. these storm/showers will not be expected to stick
around for long. Though a few clouds linger as low as 4-8kft,
VFR conditions are expected to retain across the period. Winds
this morning out of the north will mainly blow between 10-15kts
with occasional gusts as high as 20kts possible this afternoon.
Directions overnight will become more easterly. Skies will
scatter out across the rest of the day with more stratus
expected to sweep in from the northwest overnight tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion