65°F
Updated:
4/12/2026
03:33:22am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
215 FXUS63 KOAX 120524 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active weather pattern will continue through the week, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. - Expect summer-like temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, with many areas reaching the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 The forecast period begins with a few lingering showers moving across southwestern Iowa. These should exit the region before midnight. CAMs show a possibility of a few additional showers overnight and early into Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be mild, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. A broad area of low pressure will be in place over Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Dakotas heading into Sunday morning. A mid-level shortwave trough lifts through the region Sunday afternoon, bringing lift to the area. With WAA and moisture also advecting into the region, we could get some additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, but especially into the afternoon and early evening hours. The area remains in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Expected highs will top out in the mid-70s to mid-80s in the afternoon. Minimum RH value will fall into the 20s for northeastern Nebraska Sunday afternoon; however, the stronger winds that could reach RFW criteria will not be co-located with the areas that have the lowest RH values. Monday will be quite summer-like in temperatures. Expected highs will reach the low to mid-80s across the region. Monday afternoon, RH values will fall into the mid-teens to mid-20s for more of the region. Expected wind gusts are currently forecast to be below criteria in areas with the lowest RH values. This will be something to continue to monitor in the coming 24 hours. Another shortwave trough will lift into the region, bringing a chance for shower/thunderstorm activity. Should any thunderstorms find a way to develop, they could become strong to marginally severe. Tuesday brings another shortwave trough lifting from the Four Corners up into north central Kansas and south central Nebraska by Tuesday evening. Highs will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s across the region. Expect additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could become strong to severe. Wednesday through the end of the extended forecast, a series of disturbances will loft into the region. This will lead to the potential for some periodic showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 VFR conditions favored through the period though could see some SCT 2000-3000 ft clouds Sunday morning/early afternoon along with stray shower (20% chance). Otherwise, expect passing mid to high clouds. Winds will remain southwesterly, gusting 20-30 kts before weakening a bit by late Sunday afternoon. Also expect some low level wind shear into Sunday morning, with 50-60 kt southwest winds at 1500 ft agl. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...CA
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
704 FXUS63 KGID 120548 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1248 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance of scattered thunderstorms (a few potentially severe) returns Sunday for a few southeastern portions of the area. - High temperatures will range the mid 70s and 80s Sunday through Thursday. - Scattered shower and storm chances (20-40%) return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as well as Friday night. - A end of the week cold frontal passage Friday may drop temperatures a few degrees over next weekend (back to the 50/60s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Today... Following the scattered storms from last night across much of our central to south and eastern portions of the area, lingering cloud coverage has followed us into today. Despite these clouds, breezy southerly warm air advecting winds have helped push temperatures up into the upper 60s and 70s. The breezy southerly winds gusting as high as 25-35MPH will be expected to remain somewhat steady overnight (gusts 15-30MPH) as a surface low continue to strengthening over eastern Montana. The main question today will be if and where afternoon to nighttime thunderstorms develop. With temperatures rising this afternoon, instability has also increase. SBCAPE values will peak between 1,000-2,500 J/KG with 6-8 C/KM low-to-mid level lapse rates. Though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out (20-30kts of 0-1km shear), the primarly hazard tonight would be hail up to the size of ping pong balls. As result, the SPC has upgraded central, eastern and southern portions of the are into a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5 for mainly locations near, east and south of the Tri-Cities) as well as a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across the remainder of the forecast area for today. The big question tonight will be IF storms develop outside of a few isolated places given weak synoptic forcing. The upper-level shortwave trough will not arrive until the overnight hours. as result, activity before midnight may be fairly isolated to a few locations that are able to break through the low-level inversional CAP. Storms that develop across the overnight hours may have less energy to feed off from, thus the severe potential is expected to wane through the overnight hours. Sunday... Temperatures will continue to rise Sunday as clouds clear partially with the continuation of the southerly to southwesterly winds (directions veering as the surface low moves across the Dakotas). Highs for Sunday are currently forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Wind speeds will be at their strongest point early in the day (10-20MPH and gusting up to 30MPH) later lightening to only 5-10MPH and gusting up to 20MPH by the later afternoon and evening hours. A limited east to southeastern portion of the area could see a storm or two in the evening. Any storm that does develop will once again have the chance to become severe due to sufficient shear and instability east of a passing dryline. Confidence remains somewhat limited (20-30% chance) as storms that do fire, may do so after the dryline has completely exited the area to the east. The SPC has included areas southeast of a line from Rooks county Kansas to Polk county Nebraska underneath a Marginal risk. Monday and Beyond... Troughing across the Western U.S. during the first half of the week will set up southwest upper-level flow across the Central Plains. A few embedded shortwave disturbances will likely emerge out of this flow, each bringing along at least a small chance for precipitation. The next chance for precip (20-40%) will come Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as a surface low deepens across the area. Confidence remains somewhat limited as both the GFS and ECMWF global deterministic models keep most of the shower and storm activity east of the local area. A similar story as Sunday may play out where the key forcing mechanism (cold front) may pass through earlier in the day, minimizing the afternoon to evening storm potential. Beyond the mid-week precipitation chances, temperatures will likely peak in the mid 70s and 80s through Thursday with winds (outside of Tuesday night) maintaining a southerly to westerly orientation. The warmer temperatures with occasional periods of gusty winds will bring back near-critical fire weather conditions to at least a potion of the area each day Monday through the end of next week. Brief critical fire weather conditions from time to time can`t be ruled out across a few southwest locations mainly on Tuesday afternoon. The next feature to note will be the passage of a cold front later in the week that will knock highs down some heading into next weekend (back to the 50s and 60s). Another precipitation chance may trail behind the front Friday night into Saturday as another and likely more amplified trough approaches the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Very high confidence in VFR visibility along with precipitation- free conditions throughout the period, and and relatively-high confidence in VFR ceiling through at least the vast majority of the period (possibly a brief window for MVFR a few hours generally around sunrise?). That leaves winds as the main concern, with the overall-strongest surface speeds (gusts to 30+KT) right away these first several hours early this morning...along with a round of moderately-strong low level wind shear (LLWS). - Slight MVFR ceiling concerns: Most of the period will feature no more than passing higher level clouds (mainly the first 12 hours). However, there are some hints that primarily the 10-14Z time frame could feature at least limited potential for MVFR ceiling as the lower levels temporarily try to saturate. At this time, the probability of MVFR is only considered to be around 20%, so have kept TAFs VFR, but at least "hint" at the potential with "SCT015" at KGRI and "FEW015" at KEAR. - Wind details: - Surface winds: Right away these first several hours, southerly winds will remain quite breezy (sustained 20+KT/gusts 30+KT). However, especially beyond 10-11Z there will be a gradual decreasing trend, with the majority of Sunday daytime and evening featuring more modest breezes generally sustained no higher than 10-15KT/gusts under 20KT. Direction during much of the day will prevail southwesterly, but then Sunday evening will turn more south-southeasterly. - Low level wind shear (LLWS): Despite the quite-breezy surface winds ongoing at this time, winds within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL are notably stronger (generally 50-60KT out of the south-southwest). As a result, have maintained LLWS groups through 10Z KEAR/11Z KGRI, given that the shear magnitude between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer will continue to solidly average 30-35KT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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