71°F
Updated:
8/6/2026
8:43:26pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
374 FXUS63 KOAX 070019 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 719 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible Friday and Saturday, with Saturday posing the greatest risk for wind across Nebraska and Iowa. - Temperatures trend warmer going into the weekend. Seasonably warm weather expected over the weekend. - Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only small amount reaching the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the persistent trough that had been across the central CONUS continuing to weaken while a shortwave moving across Nebraska spurs on convection to its southeast in Kansas and Missouri. Dreary conditions have been gradually easing up with less and less surface observations coming in with lowered visibility. Rain chances for the rest of the day should stay well to the northwest, with our best bet coming from an isolated shower or storm developing along a weak boundary in western NE/SD drifting into the area after 9 PM. Otherwise, it`ll be a day to watch the edges of low cloud cover slowly erode while highs reach the lower 80s (or near 90 in northeast Nebraska). Showers and storms return to the forecast Friday, manifesting in one of the two following scenarios: 1) Elevated storms develop along the SD/IA/MN border region that travel along the western Iowa border through 2 PM; or 2) Storms wait until 2-4 PM to develop along a front before clearing the area to the south by 10 PM. For scenario 1 (anchored by the HRRR), modest shear and instability are set up along the nose of the low-level wind fields during the pre-dawn hours, with that nosing/impinging of the front serving as the forcing. Once the storms get going, they would be able to develop some semblance of a cold pool that would bring 40+ mph gusts and some hail with them as they push southward along the border through the morning where a MUCAPE gradient will be set up. Scenario 2 seems to pose the greater risk for severe weather (currently highlighted in a level 1 risk out of 5), where greater access to large-scale instability and to the surface exists for more organized outflow to develop. This scenario would also have a wider affected area due to the frontal placement being across south-central Nebraska into central Iowa. A couple of the HREF members do output gusts in excess of 50 kts (NAM Nest and FV3), with hail larger than quarters also being possible. Storms should be progressive enough to avoid any flooding concerns based on the latest model output. Saturday and Beyond: Depending on what unfolds on Friday, another round or two of severe weather is on the menu for the forecast area Saturday. An ingredients-based approach to the forecast draws the attention quickly to a reservoir of instability arcing from northwest Nebraska down to the south-central portion of the state near the Kansas border region. A mid-level shortwave with slightly enhanced mid- upper flow will move across the area, providing enhanced shear to go along with sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates for severe- intensity storms, it`ll just be a matter of when they develop. Significant spread continues to exist with the development of the surface fields temperature-wise Saturday, but regardless a gradient in the surface fields will develop and strengthen over the course of the day. Either convergence along that gradient or the aforementioned shortwave will be the catalyst for storm development, with that activity working with the northwesterly steering flow to move across the area. Early peeks at the extended CAMs indicate elevated storms may be able to develop as early as 7 AM, while any delay in activity into the later morning/afternoon hours would increase the overall ceiling for any MCS that would occur. With deeper-shear vectors aligning with the instability gradient, a healthier and prolonged wind threat seems possible. Highs in tho upper 80s to low 90s are on tap, with the caveat being that storms could some variance based on the time of day they move through. Beyond Saturday we continue to see ourselves on the northeastern edge of the broader ridging pattern centered to the west. We`ll see highs trend warmer, but still relatively close to normal for this time of year. A persistent frontal zone will be oriented near to just northwest of the area, keeping rain and a stray strong storm or two a low-end possibility. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A scattered strocumulous deck continues across eastern Nebraska this evening with KLNK bouncing in an out of MVFR ceilings. The trend is for these clouds to diminish this evening. There is a decent signal for IFR ceilings to redevelop after 06Z tonight, but there will probably be just enough wind to limit widespread fog formation and keep the visibility from crashing. The lower ceilings and potential for at least some visibility resitriction will likely linger at KOMA through the morning push. There is also an outside shot at a shower or rumble of thunder at KOMA in the morning, but confidence is too low for the TAF at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...CLF
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
403 FXUS63 KGID 062350 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 650 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity begin to increase for Friday, becoming downright hot over the weekend when high temperatures rise into the 90s to lower 100s. Heat Index values over 100 degrees are possible Saturday through Monday, particularly in north central Kansas. - Although quite uncertain, the chance of showers/thunderstorms returns Saturday evening/night. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with this activity. Main concern is damaging wind potential. - Temperatures gradually moderate back closer to normal for mid to late next week as pattern becomes more active and brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Low clouds have been stubborn to burn off today thanks to weak mixing withing the low level high pressure axis. This high pressure is shifting further E and allowing for gradually increasing S/SE low level flow and decreasing clouds. Humidity is beginning to increase once again (dew points back into he mid to upper 60s), but should still be a seasonably pleasant evening given the light breeze and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s through sunset. Expect another round of stratus and potentially more fog late tonight and into Friday AM with return of downright muggy conditions and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Bufkit soundings and model progs seem to favor this moisture advection being more stratus than fog, which makes sense given the steady 5-10 MPH Srly winds tonight. Models were a little overdone on the fog last night and are even less excited about it tonight, so have mentioned patchy fog in the grids, but left out any mention of dense fog in the latest HWO. Main story for the weekend will be return of warm/hot and humid conditions - but there`s also one or two, albeit highly uncertain, chances for thunderstorms to deal with, as well. Dome of upper level high pressure will build/expand over the central and southern Plains and allow for temperatures to soar into the 90s, to even low 100s in north central Kansas, each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. The warmer KS zones will also see overnight lows creep back up into mid 70s. Still can`t rule out the need for a heat advisory for some of these areas, especially towards Sun-Mon time frame, after moisture has had more time to pool along a weak frontal zone. These areas will likely see peak heat indices near the 105F criteria, and the warmer overnight lows will add to the "accumulative effects" that come with high heat. On the other hand, it`s now early August and we`re well accustomed to the heat that was even higher a couple weeks ago. Will continue to monitor trends for any signs of an upward tick in dew points or air temperatures and potential need for a heat headline - again, mainly along and S of the NE/KS state line. Several weak waves rounding the edge of the upper level high could lead to some sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly in the Saturday to Saturday night time frame. CAMs are quite inconsistent with details, however - differing significantly on where and when the best chances will be. Some guidance points towards mainly a Saturday AM chance, whereas other models weaken the AM activity before it gets to us and puts the highest chances with potential redevelopment in the evening and overnight hours. Instability probably won`t be a limiting factor regardless of scenario, and region will be on the southern fringes of greater deep layer shear...so at least some mention of severe weather potential seems warranted. Just really difficult to pin point more specific details at this time, unfortunately. Models still support the idea of gradually cooling temperatures and more active weather pattern for roughly the second half of next week. Temperatures should dip back down into primarily 80s for Neb zones by Wednesday, then area wide for Thursday. The upper ridge will break down some and reorient from the Desert SW into more of the Deep South, which should allow for a steady stream of monsoonal mid to upper level moisture to stream into the region and interact with frequent shortwaves embedded within zonal to NW upper flow. Far too early for much in the way of details, but broadly speaking, the pattern should favor an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential, likely on a daily basis...and this is confirmed in recent ensemble precip anomaly plots for next week. Hopefully this pans out, as many areas could use some moisture now, but especially next week after the hot, and mainly dry, weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Lower clouds diminished through the afternoon hours...and while some MVFR ceilings are lingering around the AUH-JYR areas...have VFR conditions to start off this TAF period. Models showing increasing coverage of lower level stratus as the overnight hours passing, pushing back NNE with time. Continued the mention of MVFR and potentially LIFR ceilings at both sites, esp between 10-14Z. More uncertainty lingers with just how low visibilities get with the expected stratus in place...lowest values likely to be on the edge of the cloud cover, which is expected to be NNW of the terminal sites. Winds this evening-tonight are expected to remain generally southeasterly...with speeds peaking around 10 MPH. After sunrise Friday, winds turn more westerly...with more uncertainty closer to midday and into the afternoon hours, as a sfc boundary sinks into the area. Winds may be more light/variable or become more northeasterly depending on how that boundary tracks. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...ADP
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