Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

166
FXUS63 KOAX 251054
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
554 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog redevelopment will be possible across portions of the
  region tonight/early Saturday morning.

- Heat settles in over the region with temperatures approaching
  the mid-90s to low 100s. Heat related concerns are expected
  through at least Sunday with Monday also looking hot.

- There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms Sunday
  night/Monday morning, which could impact Monday temperatures.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return to the forecast Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

After collaboration with neighboring forecast offices, have gone
ahead and upgraded Sunday`s Extreme Heat Watch for the Omaha
Metro area into southwest Iowa to an Extreme Heat Warning:
expect heat indices to reach the 110 to 113F range. Regarding
Monday`s heat, there is some uncertainty regarding lingering
convection/cloud cover affecting temperatures. Have maintained
the Extreme Heat Watch for Monday and will continue to assess
trends for potential upgrade.

Fog with less than 1 mile visibility has develop primarily
along and west of a line from Albion to Wahoo to Lincoln this
morning. Will continue to monitor trends and assess potential
Dense Fog Advisory issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper ridge over Montana and
Wyoming and northwest flow over the Great Plains. Fog has developed
to our east, across portions of south central Iowa and northern
Missouri. The big question will be how this impacts the Omaha CWA.
Stratus has held on longer than expected this evening toward Norfolk
and south to Columbus and Lincoln. As long as the stratus sticks
around, this will help hinder fog development. We have had some
clearing south toward Beatrice, Hebron and York. With light
southeasterly winds and clear skies, we are looking at the potential
for fog development later this evening/tonight. Some patchy dense
fog may be possible. To the east of our area, we are seeing fog
development toward south central Iowa and northern Missouri. Winds
are expected to shift, becoming more southerly as we head further
into the overnight hours which could also limit potential westward
spread of fog into the eastern portion of our CWA.

Heading into the weekend, the ridge will shift east, over the Black
Hills by Saturday morning and across the Dakotas and Nebraska by
Saturday evening. Expect Saturday highs to reach into the mid-90s to
around 104. Heat index values will be at or above 105 degrees for
most areas. Sunday temperatures will be in the mid-90s to low 100s
for highs. Sunday and Monday morning lows will not recover well and
will be in the mid to upper 70s each morning with heat index values
in the mid-70s.

A Heat Advisory remains in place for Monona County in Iowa and
several counties across eastern Nebraska from noon Saturday through
10pm Monday. Expect heat index values to reach as high as 109 during
the afternoon hours and the mid to upper 70s overnight. Knox, Cedar,
Antelope and Pierce counties in northeastern Nebraska can expect
afternoon heat index values to reach or exceed 110 degrees with
little recovery overnight. Therefore, they have been upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning which will be in effect from noon Saturday to
7am Monday. The Extreme Heat Watch for Douglas and Sarpy counties in
Nebraska and most of our western Iowa counties will likely need to
be upgraded to a warning for Sunday and possibly Monday, with a
westward expansion not out of the question.

A shortwave trough is expected drop into eastern Nebraska/western
Iowa Sunday evening, bringing a chance of a few areas getting
clipped with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Should any storms
be able to develop, they could become strong to marginally severe
with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Should
areas receive any storms, this could help cool things down a little
bit overnight, allowing temperatures to recover slightly. This would
likely have an impact on current forecasted temperatures for Monday.

Beginning Tuesday, we start to see a shift in the pattern with a few
disturbances trying to move across the Great Plains. This will give
us a few isolated chances for showers or storms. The more notable
change will be for some slightly cooler, although still hot
temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low to
mid-90s each day while lows will range from the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are observed across the area this
morning, largely driven from the low stratus and fog in place.
Expect these restrictions to persist for the next 2 to 4 hours.
KLNK could see visibilities rise some to MVFR this morning, but
this should be short lived with 1/2 mile visibilities quickly
overspreading the terminal. Thereafter, should see ceilings and
visibilities quickly recover to VFR at all terminals by the
late morning hours. Winds remain under 10 kts and out of the
south southwest during the daytime, becoming more south
southeasterly late in the TAF period but still under 10 kts. A
few models try to generate some widely scattered showers and
storms near KOFK after 00z, but chances remain low at only 14%
at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ015-
     018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for NEZ052-053.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Castillo
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

150
FXUS63 KGID 251140
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Models continue to show the potential for fog development as
  we get into the early morning hours...a few spots already have
  visibilities near 2SM. Will be watching trends closely for the
  need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

- Main story for this weekend is the return of summer heat.
  After a couple days with cooler temps, highs rocket back into
  the 90s-low 100s. Heat index values today are widespread
  around 105 degrees...could be closer to 110 degrees for
  Sunday. Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area
  from noon today through Monday evening. Will be seeing how
  models trend with Sunday...not out of the question an upgrade
  to an Ext. Heat Warning may be needed.

- Today through Monday, the vast majority of the area remains
  dry. Some models try to clip far NNE portions of the area with
  iso-sct activity Sunday evening...confidence in that is not
  high. A few more periodic chances return Tuesday on...again
  confidence in those chances is not high.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The light/variable winds and ample low-level moisture has
allowed for the development of fairly widespread visibilities
near/less than 1/2SM...shown by automated stations as well as
area webcams. After collab with neighbors, issued a Dense Fog
Advisory...which is in effect through 10AM.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Currently through the rest of tonight...

Quiet conditions currently reign across the area...with the main
concern through the rest of tonight lying with fog potential.
Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing continued
west-northwesterly flow in place across the region. Pattern for
our forecast area remains driven by upper level ridging,
centered roughly near/just east of the Four Corners
region...sandwiched between low pressure/troughing just off the
Pac NW coast and troughing working its way through the Great
Lakes region. Satellite imagery also showing little in the way
of cloud cover currently, with just far NErn areas seeing some
lower level stratus. At the surface, an overall weak pattern is
keeping winds on the light side, and generally southeasterly.

Already seeing some automated sites with visibilities below
5SM...with models showing the potential for greater coverage of
fog and lower visibilities developing as we get more into the
early morning hours today. Not out of the question that a Dense
Fog Adv may be needed...will be keeping a close eye on trends
with sensors and webcams over the next few hours.

This weekend into Monday...

The main story for this weekend into the start of the new work
week continues to lie with the return of summer heat.

As far as precipitation chances go, models still showing little
overall change in the upper level pattern...keeping that ridge
axis in the area, and the forecast for the vast majority of
the forecast area remains dry. The lone exception with this
forecast package lies on Sunday evening, with some small 20
percent chances clipping far NNE portions of the area. Not all
models agree, but some show the potential for a shortwave
disturbances riding around the edge of the ridging digging far
enough some to bring some scattered chances for showers/storms.
At this point, these chances aren`t anything to get too excited
about as far as appreciable rain goes.

The lack of notable changes in the upper level pattern/ridging
will keep that hotter airmass in place across the region.
After a couple of days with cooler temps, highs rocket back well
into the 90s/near 100 degrees today...with more upper 90s-low
100s possible for Sun-Mon. No changes were made to the Heat
Advisory...which remains in effect CWA-wide, running from noon
today on through Monday evening. Solid area of heat index values
near 105 are forecast for today...and looking ahead to Sunday,
not out of the question that more widespread values closer to
110 may occur. Will see how models trend with temps/dewpoints,
but an upgrade to Extreme Heat Warning is not out of the
question for Sunday. There looks to be at least a little relief
via winds...today`s SErly winds top out around 10-15 MPH,
Sunday`s more Srly winds currently have more solid 15-ish MPH
winds. At this point, Monday`s forecast heat index values are
closer to today than Sunday...but again will see how models
trend.

Mid-late week...

No notable changes were made to the forecast for the latter half
of this forecast period. The overall pattern remains driven by
that upper level ridging...and while there are a few more
precipitation chances in the forecast, those chances will be
dependent on how those periodic shortwave disturbances track
along the northern edge of the ridge. Not a ton of confidence in
any of the chances at this point. Forecast highs Tuesday on are
a touch `cooler`...currently topping out mainly in the low-mid
90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
Honestly, it was this forecaster`s first true 7-day forecast
shift in a while, so am admittedly lacking much "personal
history" with recent trends. Overall though, a quick comparison
of our previous (overnight shift) forecast to this latest one
reveals primarily minor/limited changes.

Temperature and heat index wise:
If anything, expected peak heat index values have crept a touch
higher for Saturday (remaining similar for Sunday-Monday).
Barring any unforeseen cloud issues and/or outflow boundaries
getting in the mix, all three afternoons/early evenings should
feature widespread peak heat index 100-110, with at least
localized spots mainly within Nebraska counties east of Hwy 281
(where dewpoints/humidity will be highest) at least briefly
creeping above 110 heat index. Although 110+ is technically our
Extreme Heat Warning criteria, at least for now we are calling
for small enough of an area to breach 110+ for only a limited
amount of time...that was comfortable just keeping a Heat
Advisory in place through all three days at this time.

Rain/thunderstorm potential:
As touched on in Key Messages above, parts of the Saturday
night-Sunday night time frame might not be truly "guaranteed"
dry...despite our lack of official mentionable rain chances in
our official forecast (which need to be 15+% to be included).
Although still over 48 hours away and carrying a high degree of
uncertainty, what likely bears most watching is Sunday evening-
overnight, during which time there is limited model support
(albeit including the often-reliable ECMWF) for thunderstorm to
TRY slipping into our mainly our far northern/northeast
counties. IF this occurs, probably cannot rule out the potential
for a strong to marginally-severe storm, and we`ll acknowledge
here that SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe (level 1
of 5) to some of our northern/northeast counties on their latest
Day 3 Outlook.


- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. July 31):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Once the last of any spotty measurable showers moved out by
around sunrise this morning, the main question today was how
efficiently an expansive lower stratus cloud deck would clear,
and the resultant impact on temps. In short, the low stratus has
proven slower/more stubborn to clear across especially the
majority of our Nebraska CWA, with cloudy/mostly cloudy
conditions still hanging tough at this time in most places, in
turn keeping current temps in the 70s. In fairly sharp contrast,
no worse than partly cloudy (if not mostly sunny) skies have
prevailed this afternoon within our KS zones along with some of
our western-most Nebraska counties (such as Dawson/Furnas),
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 80s and even low 90s.

As we get into late afternoon/evening, clouds should continue to
SLOWLY scatter out/break up from west-to-east and south-to-
north, but probably not in time to get our entire
central/eastern CWA into the 80s as earlier expected (if nothing
else, official daytime highs will likely be later-than-usual).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that we remain under
northwesterly flow aloft, directed between a prominent upper
ridge/high centered over the Four Corners region, and a broad
trough positioned from the Great Lakes region into the
northeast states. At the surface, the pressure gradient is
weak...keeping wind speeds mainly well under 10 MPH across the
majority of our CWA..with direction mainly from the south-
southeast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although a few showers could try developing slightly east of our
CWA generally along eastern parts of the NE/KS border area,
confidence is fairly high in our going dry forecast. That leaves
the evolution of low clouds and/or fog as the "million dollar
question" for tonight. As already mentioned, low clouds have
been slower to clear today in many central/eastern counties, and
latest RAP low-level RH fields suggest some of our eastern-most
Nebraska counties might struggle to clear until closer to 10-11
PM. This raises some concern that fog could develop earlier than
currently expected tonight...possibly favoring the western edge
of the "clearing line". However, our official forecast is geared
more toward the latest HRRR solutions, which keeps us largely
fog-free until post-midnight...after which time at least a
50-mile wide corridor of fog (perhaps dense?) could materialize
in generally west-southwest to east-northeast fashion across
parts of our CWA (currently most favoring central areas). That
being said, there is some inherent uncertainty even at this
close range (typical of especially summer fog potential), as a
light west-southwesterly wind component (downslope) in the
boundary layer MIGHT try working against truly dense fog
development. In the end, opted to blanket our entire CWA with at
least generic "patchy fog" potential for the late night hours,
and have acknowledged in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID)
that at least localized dense fog (and thus a potential
Advisory) is possible. Will defer to later shifts for any
possible Advisory issuance, however.

Otherwise overnight, low temps are forecast to bottom out mainly
66-71 degrees.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
Here comes the heat (as the upper high/ridge over the Southwest
builds northeastward more into the central U.S.) ! Unlike
today, and even IF the morning starts out with lingering
fog/dense fog...the shallower nature of the low level moisture
should allow skies to clear much faster...paving the way for a
sunny/mostly sunny day CWA- wide. As was the case with our last
heat wave, various models/guidance are likely aiming a bit too
high on actual temps (especially in the northeast half of our
CWA where coverage of row crops is most prevalent), and in turn
might be slightly under-doing dewpoints/humidity in these same
areas. However, even if these errors are in play, these factors
should "cancel each other out" to some degree and result in
effective heat index values being of reasonably-high confidence.
As it currently stands, we`re calling for actual high temps
mainly 95-100 degrees...and highest heat index mainly 100-109
(supporting the Heat Advisory). Winds will be steady but fairly
light (mainly near- to-under 10 MPH) out of the south-southeast
during the afternoon...offering minimal relief.


- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Not expecting any fog issues for a change, and our going dry
forecast continues s the dominant upper ridge should shunt vast
majority of any convection at least slightly to our north. That
being said, latest HRRR hints at some spotty/high-based showers
trying to brush into our far northern counties through the
night...so this cannot be completely ruled out. In the presence
of light southerly winds, overnight low temps only drop into
the low-mid 70s.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
The daytime looks to be another steamy/hot one, albeit with a
bit more of a southerly breeze than Saturday (sustained 10-15
MPH/gusts 20+ MPH). Even so, high temps within a few degrees
either side of 100 should push max heat index solidly into the
105-110 range most areas.

For Sunday evening-overnight, will need to watch our far
northern/eastern counties just in case some showers/storms can
sneak in and overcome the vary warm air/capping aloft (as
previous mentioned SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk on its
latest Day 3 outlook). Low temps again warm...mainly 72-77
degrees.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
One final day of notable heat and the last day of the official
Advisory, as SLIGHTLY cooler air works in behind a weak "cold
front" that will usher in more easterly breezes. Still though,
temps/heat index currently aimed very similar to Sunday`s
values. With slightly better support in the model world versus
Sunday night, our official forecast DOES include some low-end
thunderstorm chances for Monday evening-overnight as there is
better agreement that the dominant ridge weakens enough to allow
some convection in from the west.


- TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
In short, it remains seasonably warm...but at least slightly
cooler than previous days with actual high temps mainly low-mid
90s and heat index values mainly topping out 95-100 each of
these four days. Although still of the VERY low confidence
variety, we are carrying intermittent chances for showers and
what should MAINLY be fairly weak storms (given fairly weak deep
layer wind shear).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes right off the bat in the
first couple of hours, with fog and low level stratus sticking
around...bringing LIFR conditions. Conditions will improve back
to VFR around mid-late morning...but confidence in the exact
timing is still not overly high. Once VFR conditions return,
they are expected to last through the during of the period.
Light/variable winds early this morning are expected to turn
south-southeasterly...with speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion