Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

694
FXUS63 KOAX 101907
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
207 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20 to 40% chance for storms southeast of a line
  from Burchard to Red Oak, IA. These storms may rapidly become
  severe with all hazards possible.

- Better chances (60-80%) for storms arrive after midnight
  tonight. These will likely become severe with very large hail,
  damaging winds, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall.

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday (40-60% chance).
  Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday with highs
  in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

17z hand analysis reveals a primary sfc low near Manitoba with a sfc
cold front extending southward into western Minnesota and eastern
Nebraska. A secondary sfc low is also seen near the Rockies with the
sfc cold front extending into the feature.

Forcing from the cold front combined with MLCAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/kg
ahead of the boundary should lead to scattered showers and storms
developing just along the southeast fringes of our forecast area
later this afternoon. The strong 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts
should lead to the potential for some supercells as hinted by CAMs
with some large hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado
before growing upscale into a line and quickly exiting the area. At
this time, PoPs remain at 20 to 40% for areas southeast of a line
from Pawnee to Montgomery counties. Otherwise, expect another warm
day today with highs in the 90s and heat index values in the mid to
upper 90s.

Better chances for showers and storms arrive late tonight into
Thursday morning. Model guidance shows the aforementioned sfc low
over Colorado tracking east northeast toward the area. Near and
ahead of the feature, expect an H8 LLJ to overspread southern
portions of the forecast area while the H5 shortwave also tracks
into the area. The strong H7-H8 low level forcing and H7-H5 forcing
from the approaching wave should help generate an arc of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. MUCAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/kg with bulk
shear of 50 to 70 kts should help fuel and maintain severe
convection overnight with all hazards on the table. Very steep H7-H5
lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km along with elongated hodographs
will lead to very large hail. In regards to tornado potential, this
will largely depend on if we can become sfc based. Forecast BUFKIT
soundings show little, if any, CIN present at times in the early
morning hours along with clockwise curvature in hodographs. SRH in
both the 0-1 km and 0-3 km layers is also supportive of tornado
potential.

Storms will also be efficient rainfall producers, given warm cloud
depths of around 4,000 meters over most of the forecast area and
PWATs of 2 inches. Sounding climatology suggests these values well
above the 90th percentile per the SPC. With continued moisture
transport from the jet pointed into the area, should see continued
redevelopment of cells with training storms likely as seen per some
CAM guidance. This scenario would likely lead to flash flood/hydro
concerns overnight. Have considered issuing a Flood Watch for
portions of the forecast area, but given the uncertainty amongst
guidance on where the heavy rain axis will lie, have held off for
this forecast update. PoPs increase after 06z to 30 to 50%
along Interstate 80, increasing to 60 to 80% by 09z for areas
along and south of a line from Platte to Monona counties.

Showers and storms linger into the late morning hours Thursday (30-
60% chance) before quickly pushing eastward and exiting the area
after 12 pm. Highs behind the front for Thursday are noticeably
cooler ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Friday will see the return of warm conditions with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Dry conditions are expected as sfc high
pressure moves into the area.

By early Saturday morning, surface high pressure that was in place
Friday will give way to a pair of incoming features, one being a
cold front impinging upon the area from the northwest and the other
being a surface low dragging a warm front approaching from the west-
southwest. These two features will work together to provide lift and
a favorable parameter space for severe weather to the southeast of
them for the late morning/early afternoon. The main point of
uncertainty with Saturday will be how far to the south and east will
these features push the storm risk, as the trend in the last 4+
model runs has shifted it farther and farther to the southeast over
Kansas and Missouri. If that shift holds, we do still have rain
chances during the pre-dawn hours when the forcing is locally-
aligned, but severe potential would be limited.

Sunday heading into the work week, we`ll see the boader-scale trough
that had been relegated to the north shift through the area,
bringing in quite the change in highs across the area. Temperatures
in the 80s Saturday will sink into the 70s Sunday and Monday, with
additional rainfall chances arriving with the back end PVA of the
upper trough Monday. From there, we trend quieter precipitation-wise
as northwest flow settles in and highs increase back into 80s
Tuesday into Wednesday. Looking forward, we`ll be on the edge
of hotter temperatures heading into the latter part of the week
with minor ridging taking shape over the western third of the
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this afternoon
along with gusty 20-25 kt southwesterly winds. Expect some few
to scattered clouds around 3,000 to 5,000 feet at KLNK and KOMA,
largely dissipating by 00z. Gustiness should subside too, with
winds turning clockwise overnight.

Will see showers and storms redevelop across the area largely
after 06z. Have attempted to time out arrival at terminals with
this issuance using latest model guidance, but expect potential
adjustments/refinements this evening. Storms will likely become
severe with the potential for very large hail, strong wind
gusts, heavy rainfall, and perhaps a tornado. Expect reduced
visibilities and ceilings to MVFR/IFR with these storms. After
showers and storms end, may see some MVFR ceilings at KOMA and
KLNK after 11z. Confidence for occurrence was higher at KOMA
with KLNK more on the fringe so have only introduced mentions at
KOMA. Ceilings rise to 4,000-7,000 feet after 17z, while gusty
northwest winds of 25 to 30 kts overspread terminals thereafter.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo/Petersen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

169
FXUS63 KGID 101739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much drier conditions and warm today on gusty westerly winds.
  Near- critical fire weather this afternoon over far W/NW
  zones where fuels are still marginally susceptible.

- Scattered elevated supercells with primarily a large hail
  threat expected after sunset tonight. Greatest threat is for
  areas along and N of I-80, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
  is in place via latest SPC outlook.

- Cool and comfortable on Thursday before temperatures warm back
  up for Friday and Saturday. Another cool down arrives on
  Sunday and persists into early next week.

- Overall pattern doesn`t appear to be quite as active over the
  next week, but there are still occasional thunderstorm
  chances, most notably on Saturday. This looks to be our next
  opportunity for strong to severe storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Ongoing scattered showers/few weak storms driven by 45-55kt low
level jet will gradually dissipate/weaken as the LLJ does. The
rest of the day will be dry as a cold front (currently analyzed
from the Sandhills to near Denver) moves through this morning
and ushers in drier westerly flow for the afternoon. Still
appears any surface based development along this front later
today will remain SE of the forecast area. Despite the frontal
passage, not going to be much in the way of cooler air thanks to
deep westerly, downsloping low level flow, which will warm quite
easily under the high June sun angle. Relative humidity values
will fall below 20 percent along and W of Hwy 183, and with the
gusty winds 25-30 MPH, would still not advise burning in places
like Gosper and Dawson Counties and any nearby areas that
haven`t seen much rain lately given the ongoing drought.

Still expect another round of thunderstorms tonight, mainly
after sunset, and mainly for areas of south central Nebraska.
This activity will develop in response to mid level height falls
atop strong convergence on the nose of intense 50kt+ LLJ. Area
averaged forecast soundings from the 06Z HRRR along I-80 at 06Z
show little to no CINH to parcels lifted from around 800-750mb,
MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg, and 700-500mb lapse rates near 8 C/km.
This thermodynamic environment, combined with roughly 50kt of
bulk shear to effective inflow parcels strongly suggests
scattered elevated supercells with large to very large hail
(1.5-2.0") being the primary threat with the initial (first
30-90 min) development. The very large hail threat may decrease
after that as the intense forcing along with effective shear
vectors that are largely parallel to the zone of max convergence
should lead to upscale growth into one or more clusters.
Activity will maintain a large hail threat until activity exits
the area to the E/NE towards dawn...but more like 1.25-1.5".
Areas that see this activity can expect a quick 0.5-1" of
rainfall, perhaps locally higher.

Showers may linger into Thursday morning, but most of the midday
through afternoon hours will be dry, cooler, and with less
humidity. Temperatures look to warm back into the mid 80s to
lower 90s Friday and Saturday, and Saturday looks to be our next
decent chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. E/SE portions
of our area are highlighted in a 15% severe risk area on the
latest SPC day 4 outlook.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Currently through tonight...

Outside of a few showers/weak storms that work east across
portions of south central Nebraska during the mid-late morning
hours...been a pretty quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data show southwesterly flow in place across the
Central Plains...set up between broader troughing over the
western CONUS and high pressure over the Gulf Coast/SErn coasts.
The day started out with quite a bit of low level stratus and
some drizzle...and while it has taken its sweet time shifting
north/diminishing, more of the area is seeing sun, helping temps
climb. Took a while for those more breezy southerly winds to
spread north across the forecast area, started the day with many
locations having more light/variable winds...which were also at
least briefly turned to the northwest this morning from outflow
from the activity that pushed east across NE. Finally have
those gusty southerly winds across the area, generally around
20-25 MPH. The stratus really did a number on temperatures,
mainly across south central NE...and while there will be some
late day recovery with more sun, much of that area will fall at
least a bit short of expectations. The high dewpoints is still
making for sticky conditions...with widespread readings in the
low 70s.

For the rest of this afternoon on into tonight...the main
concern will be with thunderstorms working their way east
across the area. Activity is already ongoing over the
Central/Srn High Plains, sparked off by the arrival of an upper
level shortwave disturbance embedded in that larger scale SWrly
flow. With that area of 70s dewpoints nosing into much of the
area, no shortage of instability...with the SPC Meso page
showing MLCAPE values around 3000-4000j/kg in place CWA-wide
here at mid-afternoon. Still some capping to overcome, but that
should wane with time as that disturbance approaches from the
SW. Models have remained consistent showing activity working its
way into SWrn portions of the forecast area in the next few
hours...pushing east through the early-mid evening hours.
Basically the entire CWA is included in the Day 1 Enhanced Risk
area...driven primarily by the threat for wind gusts near 70
MPH. Large hail up around golf ball size is also a
possibility...and as this activity moves into better low level
moisture further east, there is a threat for isolated tornadoes
as well. Some of the hi-res models show activity from N-S
through the CWA potentially being broken up a bit, with a more
southern section closer to/south of HWY 6 into KS, then another
more north of I- 80...we`ll see if it actually pans out that
way.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Models currently showing most of/if not all activity being off
to the east of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday...with
the daytime hours currently forecast to be dry. In the upper
levels, models are showing that larger scale troughing working
its with further east with time further into the Rockies...with
another embedded shortwave disturbance swinging into the
Dakotas. This will help push a surface frontal boundary east
through the forecast area...ushering in more northwesterly
winds. This helps give that better low-level moisture a push
east, with lower dewpoints in the 40s-50s currently forecast.
Highs are forecast to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s...which
results in some low relative humidities through the afternoon,
with teens-20s forecast. With the recent rains across the area,
have had a chance to further green up...so while some western
areas flirt with near critical to critical RH/winds, not
anticipating a fire headline at this time. During the late
afternoon and early-mid evening hours...that frontal boundary
provides focus for another round of thunderstorm
development...but at this time that activity is expected to off
to our ESE. Our main concern comes later in the evening and
overnight...where models have been fairly consistent showing the
potential for an arc of likely elevated hailers developing
along the nose of a southerly low-level jet. Some models showing
the jet potentially around 50kts, others are not quite as
strong. Agreement isn`t too bad as far as location goes...mainly
a south central NE issue west of HWY 183, and generally around
or just north of I-80. The SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area has a
small westward back into the area to account for this potential.

Thursday on into early next week...

As we get into the latter portion of the week and start of the
new week...forecast does have a longer dry period for Thursday
and Friday. Models showing generally zonal flow returning to
the upper levels...but also show a lack of notable disturbances
moving through. That changes as we get into the weekend-early
next week, with periodic disturbances returning to the region.
As far as temperatures go, have a little bit of a roller coaster
forecast...with highs back in the mid 80s-90s by Saturday,
dropping back into the low-mid 70s for Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The majority of this TAF period is forecast to be dry, with VFR
conditions. Late tonight, near/after 06Z, there will be the
potential for a line of thunderstorms to develop across portions
of the area, then shifting off to the ENE with time. There is
some uncertainty with just exactly where this activity
initializes...but there is the potential for impact on both
terminal sites, thus the PROB30 mention from 06-10Z. This
afternoon, breezy/gusty NW winds continue, with gusts near 20-25
MPH possible. Winds turn more light/variable this
evening/overnight...becoming NWrly closer to sunrise and on
through the end of this period. Mid-late morning looks to usher
in gusty NW winds, with gusts near 30 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion