Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

623
FXUS63 KOAX 260740
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
240 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
  morning hours across much of the area. A Flood Watch remains
  in effect for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwestern
  Iowa. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have already fallen and
  an additional 1-2 inches is possible this morning.

- Rain chances begin to decrease this afternoon from northwest
  to southeast. A few thunderstorms could linger across portions
  of the area through the early evening hours.

- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid
  90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the
  weekend. Storms return to the northern portions of the area by
  Saturday evening, a few of which could be severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

This morning...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this morning
across the area as an upper-level shortwave trough approaches
the area and interacts with an existing boundary. This has
served as a focus and allowed convection to continue to develop
throughout the evening and into the morning hours. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have fallen across portions of
the area and an additional 1-2 inches are possible through the
morning hours as PW values remain exceptionally high for the
area. The Flood Watch continues through this afternoon as the
possibility for additional flooding issues will persist through
the morning hours.

Today and Tonight...

Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to wane by this
afternoon for much of the area that has received the bulk of the
rainfall as the shortwave begins to move off to the east. That
said, a few lingering storms are possible and any that do
develop during the afternoon hours could become strong. An
isolated severe storm also cannot be ruled out. The primary
concern from these storms would mainly be strong and gusty
winds.

Tomorrow...

The aforementioned systems continue to move away from the area
tomorrow and flow becomes nearly zonal. This will allow
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the area.

Weekend and Beyond...

By Saturday, temperatures will continue to climb into the lower
to mid 90s across the area with heat index values approaching
the upper 90s to around 102 in many locations. By Saturday
evening, a few storms are expected to move back into the
northern parts of the area as a surface trough is forecast to
deepen across central Nebraska serving as a focus for storms to
develop along with the heating of the day. While POPs are not
extremely high at this time, any storms that do develop will be
capable of producing strong winds and severe hail. Parts of the
area are are outlooked for a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather by the SPC.

By the beginning of the work week, rain chances come down again
with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s for highs
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue across the area
tonight and while the main band of storms should remain
southeast of OFK and northwest of OMA and LNK, occasional TSRA
and MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are still expected at all
sites, especially early in the period. Should see a transition
to mainly showers Thursday morning with some lingering MVFR
ceilings at OMA and OFK. Still expect storms to redevelop
sometime in the 17-21Z window, but OMA and LNK remain on the
far western edge, so not confident enough to include mention at
this time. Otherwise, winds could be somewhat variable overnight
with the on and off showers, but should eventually settle in at
southerly to southwesterly into mid-morning. Eventually expect a
turn to westerly and northwesterly, but speeds should remain
around 10 kts or less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
IA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

715
FXUS63 KGID 260556
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding/localized flash flooding is a concern overnight for
  much of mainly our Nebraska forecast area. A Flood Watch has
  been expanded to include the majority (all but the southeast
  few counties) of our Nebraska forecast area through 7 AM.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms could impact the local area
  this afternoon through the overnight hours, with some severe
  potential (especially wind gusts 60+ mph) expected through
  around 10 PM CDT.

- A brief dip in afternoon temps to near climo (mid 80s) is
  anticipated for Thursday, with well above normal temperatures
  returning Friday and through the upcoming weekend. Fairly
  widespread heat index values over 100 are anticipated for
  Saturday.

- While periodic, mainly small, chances for thunderstorms return
  to the forecast beginning Saturday evening, the overall
  forecast looks much drier next week, with mainly near to above
  normal temperatures each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

-- Quick update on latest/recent trends through the overnight:

- The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was cancelled generally 1-2
  hours early for our affected counties. Early storms briefly
  produced some localized severe weather (highlighted by some
  wind damage in Kearney per known reports), but poor lapse
  rates and outflow getting out ahead of updrafts then led to a
  steady weakening trend.

- BY FAR our main concern through the rest of tonight is/will be
  at least localized flooding/flash flooding. Based on latest
  trends from especially HRRR, the Flood Watch (valid through 7
  AM) was expanded southward to include all except a few of our
  far southeastern Nebraska counties, as much of the Watch area
  could see anywhere from 1-4" of cumulative rain spanning
  roughly the sunset-sunrise time frame. Fortunately (at least
  so far), the heaviest rain has "avoided" our most flooding-
  sensitive areas around Sherman/southern Valley counties that
  saw the overall- heaviest rain during the previous overnight
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A frontal boundary remains draped across northwestern portions
of the local area this afternoon with an upper level shortwave
just upstream of the local area. Just ahead of this front,
showers and thunderstorms have rapidly developed and intensified
the past couple of hours, with some small hail and intense
winds observed in spots. These storms are being fueled by 2-3K
Joules of CAPE, and will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, which may in turn contribute to wind gust potential
from evaporative cooling in downdrafts aiding in downward
momentum transfer. That said, most cells will likely have
trouble organizing given the weak shear environment, so severe
winds (and less-so hail) will be the main focus through around
10 PM.

As we then transition into the overnight hours, storms will
likely become non-severe, although the flooding risk may
increase as storms continue to train across already saturated
soils from this evenings and yesterdays storms - with a second
round of convection transitioning from the high plains then
expected to merge across the local area late in the night.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible over
the next 12-24 hours, with localized amounts up to 4 inches,
especially across the flood watch area.

Slightly cooler air along with light northwesterly winds will
fill in behind the frontal boundary for Thursday, although
additional storm development will remain possible mainly
southeast of the Tri-cities during the afternoon and evening
hours where the front is forecast to stall out before
eventually clearing the local area Thursday night.

Thereafter, warmer temperatures and dry weather will return to
the local area for Friday, as high temperatures return to the
low to mid 90s. Temperatures will then peak on Saturday, when a
weak ridge aloft peaks across the plains. This will result in
the warmest day of the period, with widespread afternoon heat
index values over 100 degrees anticipated Saturday afternoon.
With only weak ridging aloft then persisting into early next
week, expect multiple weak disturbances rolling off the high
plains to bring additional small and periodic chances for
thunderstorm activity through mid-week, before the upper level
ridge eventually re-amplifies across the plains towards the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Signficant weather: MVFR to IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs in
thunderstorms through dawn.

Main concern will be impacts for showers and thunderstorms
through around 12-14Z. Expect fairly continuous shwrs at both
terminals...with tstms being more off and on/temporary. CIGs
could be all over the place, but most model guidance suggests a
general trend to mainly MVFR to IFR in the 08-14Z time frame, at
least...perhaps until closer to 17Z. However, given the ongoing
convection, confidence is not overly high on these model
trends. Winds will be quite variable, as well, but generally
pretty light outside of brief, heavier cores.

Expect some decrease to cloud cover late AM/midday, though some
SCT to BKN stratocu could continue into the aftn along and
behind a cold front. Winds will shift from S to SW to NW
throughout the day, but remain light at 5-8kt. Mainly clear
skies and lgt and vrbl winds are expected this evening. Given
the copious rainfall and said winds, could see some fog develop
late Thu eve/night, but will tackle this in future TAFs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>076-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion