Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

330
FXUS63 KOAX 091915
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue today with a Heat Advisory
  in effect for most of the area.

- A non-zero chance for a severe storm exists this afternoon
  over the area. Better chances (50-70%) for storms are expected
  for primarily areas northwest of a line from Columbus to
  Decatur, Nebraska after 7 pm. These will likely become severe
  with damaging winds the main threat.

- More showers and storms develop late Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning, and may be strong to severe with large hail,
  strong winds, and heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

19z RAP objective analysis depicts a longwave H5 trof over the
western CONUS, while ridging dominates much of the southeast CONUS.
Southwesterly flow remains in place for much of the Central and
Northern Plains. The southwesterly H8 flow has led to continued WAA
and increased moisture transport over the forecast area. Tds remain
muggy at this hour, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s resulting in
a rather uncomfortable air mass. As highs reach the mid to upper 90s
today, expect heat index values to reach the 100F range. While some
low stratus is seen moving east northeast near Lincoln, some
thinning in cloud cover is observed. After collaboration with
neighboring offices and with this being one of the first heat waves
of the year, have maintained the Heat Advisory for the area through
02z.

In addition to the heat, the increasingly warm and unstable airmass
will provide fuel for our severe weather threat this afternoon and
into the evening/overnight hours. Model guidance suggests a sfc low
currently over eastern WY deepening and tracking east, while a
dryline/sfc front extends southward toward western Nebraska. The
environment near and ahead of this feature appears very favorable
for severe storms capable of all hazards. Abundant sfc based
instability of 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg of CAPE with little to no CIN
is seen from BUFKIT soundings, and 0-8 km bulk shear spanning
the depth of the CAPE profile ranges around 40 to 50 kts. This
environment is suggestive of supercell formation, but a few
questions remain regarding how convection will evolve/develop.

Latest CAM guidance still shows a few discrepancies on how this
afternoon/evening could play out. CAMs like the NAM 4km Nest
suggest some potential for storms firing as early as 20z well
ahead of the dryline/front along the fringes of our CWA, while
other CAMs suggest some general light showers in the vicinity.
Should an updraft develop and be able to sustain itself, it will
likely become severe with all hazards on the table. The very
steep lapse rates of 8 deg C/km will result in very large hail
in addition to a damaging wind threat. Low level curvature
observed in hodographs along with 0-3 km and 0-1 km SRH well
above 200 m2/s2 suggests favorable conditions for tornadoes.
Confidence in this scenario occurring remains rather low given
current CAM solutions not really latching on to this scenario.

Higher chances for severe convection are expected after 00z as
initial, discrete convection merges into an MCS across central
Nebraska. The MCS will bring more of a damaging wind threat (75+ mph
gusts) over western into northwestern portions of the county warning
area. If storms can develop ahead of the main linear feature and
remain discrete, these will likely become supercells with the
potential for some very large hail and tornadoes given the already
mentioned favorable low level curvature/SRH as the H8 LLJ
strengthens.

For this forecast update, PoPs remain at 15 to 30% by around 00z
over our far northern border area with FSD, while chances ramp up to
50 to 70% for areas along and northwest of a line from Columbus to
Decatur, Nebraska. An enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather
remains in effect for much of northeast Nebraska, while a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) is forecast for the remainder of the area. A few
showers and storms linger into the early morning hours over
northeast Nebraska at about a 20 to 40% chance.

As we head into Wednesday, the bulk of the forecast area should see
dry conditions aside from our far southeastern areas where some more
showers and storms may develop in the afternoon (15-30%). These
should quickly push east. Highs will remain warm in the low to mid
90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s mainly over far
southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. CAM guidance signals more
showers and storms developing into a line just to the east of the
forecast area, after 00z. More showers and storms are forecast to
develop over the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning and are
discussed below.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Early Thursday morning, there will likely be more redevelopment of
showers and storms along the nose of an H8 LLJ. In addition to some
large hail and strong wind gusts, likely will see some heavy
rain/flash flooding concerns play out. Warm cloud depths approaching
4000m with PWAT values of 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile)
should lead to efficient rainfall producers. Some uncertainty exists
on where exactly the best forcing/location for storm development
will occur so expect further adjustments made to the forecast. PoPs
gradually increase in coverage in the morning, peaking at 60 to 80%
by 09z and tapering off by the noon hour. Temperatures cool to the
upper 70s to mid 80s for highs.

Sfc high pressure moves into the area for Friday with largely dry
conditions and highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Storm chances (50-
70%) return to the forecast for Saturday, and a few of these could
become strong to severe with the Day 5 SPC outlook showing a 15%
chance for severe weather. The active pattern continues for Sunday
and Monday as another H5 trof ejects from MT/WY southeast. PoPs
remain at 15 to 30% these days. Expect cooler highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this afternoon. A
band of low level stratus clouds ranging from 3,000 to 4,000 ft
will slowly track toward the east northeast and may clip KLNK.
Current thinking is that this stratus band will break up/thin
out by the time it reaches the terminal. A stray shower or storm
may clip terminals this afternoon, but confidence remains low
for occurrence. If a storm manages to form, it will likely
become severe. However, higher chances are expected after 03z,
particularly at KOFK when a line of severe thunderstorms tracks
east northeast. Have included -TSRA with TAF at this terminal
given highest confidence for occurrence is there. For KOMA and
KLNK, chances for -TSRA remain at around 20%. Expect any storms
to have damaging wind gusts and large hail, in addition to any
locally reduced visibilities and ceiling restrictions to
MVFR/IFR. Showers and a few storms linger after 06z but chances
remain at 15-30%.

Winds will become gusty this afternoon from the south with gusts
of 25 to 30 kts. Winds turn clockwise late in the TAF period and
remain gusty. Some LLWS overspreads terminals after 03z at KOMA
and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015-
     017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

016
FXUS63 KGID 091746
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, humid, and breezy today before another chance of severe
  thunderstorms arrives late afternoon into the evening.

- There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (level 3 of 5)
  Risk across the region. Damaging wind looks to be the primary
  threat, with a somewhat lesser risk for large hail.

- Will have one more chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
  evening and overnight, mainly for our portions of south
  central Nebraska. Large hail is the primary threat.

- Finally a quieter and eventually cooler pattern moves in later
  this week and continues into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A few lingering showers/storms will dissipate this early morning
and leave us with hot, humid, and breezy conditions by early
afternoon. South winds 10-20 MPH and gusts 25-30 MPH will
provide some modest relief from the humidity, and latest
forecast heat indices have come down a degree, or two, to
generally around a couple deg on either side of 100F. This falls
short of our traditional heat advisory criteria, and not overly
inclined to bend it since it`s just one day and there will be a
breeze. Nonetheless, probably going to be the warmest and most
humid day so far this summer.

Attention then turns to our next chance for thunderstorms slated
to arrive late this afternoon or into the evening. There remains
a bit of uncertainty on the overall coverage of storms, but
latest CAMs are in reasonably good agreement on the general evolution
and timing. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop up and
down the High Plains by mid afternoon - with plenty of upper
support coming in the way of one or two shortwave disturbances
embedded within active SW upper flow. The strongest shortwave
and upper forcing looks to focus from northern Nebraska into the
Dakotas, so expect this activity to quickly grow upscale into a
fairly solid line as it moves E/NE during the late afternoon and
evening. It`s a bit uncertain where the southern portion of this
line tracks, but some of the recent trends suggest this could
remain just N of our local forecast area.

00Z HREF suggests another, largely separated, area of focused
development from SW KS into the central/southern High Plains,
within a very hot and deeply mixed boundary layer. This activity
may be a bit more scattered in nature owing to slightly weaker
upper forcing, but should quickly shift NE during the late
afternoon and evening as 30-40kt mid level jet streak
overspreads the western edge of a large, strongly unstable warm
sector. Deep inverted-v profiles and large surface T-Td spreads
argue for a mainly damaging wind threat. As mentioned above,
coverage with this activity remains a bit more uncertain, but if
cold pools can develop and merge, then several quick-moving
clusters/line segments with 60-70 MPH wind gusts will be
possible. Deep layer shear vectors will be marginally supportive
of some supercells (0-6km bulk shear ~25-30kt), and so could
see some large hail, as well, but should be a secondary threat
to the damaging straight line winds. The greatest risk for
severe will be 5PM to midnight (perhaps only 10-11PM) and should
see much quieter conditions for the second half of the night.

Wednesday looks to be fairly quiet during the daytime hours
thanks to a relatively early passage of a weak cold front. The
AM-early aftn frontal passage means the primary zone of low
level convergence and storm development will focus further E,
roughly along the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will be a few
degrees lower than today - and less humid, but the initial
surge of cooler air is fairly weak. Speaking of drier air,
models surge relative humidity values as low as 15-20 percent
into areas roughly along and W of Hwy 283 by late afternoon.
Winds appear somewhat more marginal, but still breezy with gusts
around 25 MPH. We`re still considering these areas as having
fuels "conditionally favorable" for large fire growth, so may
ultimately need a Red Flag Warning depending on how things play
out tonight. Unfortunately, some of these areas have been the
driest over the past 7 days, and I don`t think storms tonight
will have much moisture with them.

Finally...touching briefly on Wednesday night`s storm
potential: several models develop one more round of
thunderstorms in this recent stretch of active weather, this
time largely of the elevated variety, driven by a very strong
40-50kt low level jet. This round may be nothing to sneeze at
given potential MUCAPE values of 2-3K J/kg, steep mid level
lapse rates, and strong effective deep layer shear (40-45kt+).
This setup would favor elevated supercells with primarily a
large to very large (2"+) hail threat that would probably focus
more in Nebraska than Kansas. This round looks to be largely
during the overnight period (after 10PM) Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Convection from this morning has left an outflow boundary draped
across the area. Meanwhile, elevated convection is already
ongoing near LBF and additional cumulus is developing near and
along the remnant outflow. Near-term CAMs came into agreement
this morning that the primary area of redevelopment will be in
western portions of the area (possibly between McCook and
Holdrege) in the 3-5pm timeframe. The strongest convection is
then expected to push southeastward through the late afternoon
and evening along the axis of greatest instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE). Deep-layer shear is also quite strong, with effective
shear possibly approaching 50kts at times. Given the expected
storm mode (multicell clusters merging into line segments), the
primary severe threat is wind, although severe hail is also
expected in some areas. Output from the CAMs would indicate that
thunderstorm wind gusts of 70-80 MPH are possible. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, although the higher threat appears to
be to our east as the QLCS becomes more organized.

In addition to the severe threat, CAMs are indicating that
these storms will be very efficient rainfall producers...which
isn`t surprising with PWAT values near 1.7" per mesoanalysis.
The RRFS and HRRR indicate potential 2"/hr rainfall rates and
localized totals of 3-4". As such, a Flood Watch was issued for
portions of far southern Nebraska and north central Kansas.

Storms are expected to exit the area by around 10pm, but
additional convection from the High Plains may roll in later
overnight. Given the timing, these storms should not be as
intense, but some strong to severe storms do remain possible
into the early morning hours of Tuesday. This is a relatively
new trend, so confidence in specifics remains fairly low.

Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of the year so far in
many areas. Aided by a strong southerly wind (gusts 30-40 MPH),
high temperatures in the 90s and even low 100s are expected.
Heat index values may briefly approach 105 degrees in eastern
zones where dewpoints are higher.

The daytime should remain mostly dry, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across the area
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in
coverage remains uncertain, but convective parameters (3-4000
J/kg MLCAPE and 30kt 0-6km shear) would be favorable for a least
a few severe storms.

Wednesday will trend a bit cooler, and the main threat area for
storms will shift to the south/east. That said, a few storms
cannot be totally ruled out Wednesday evening into the
overnight.

With the active weather in the near-term, not much time was
spent on the longer-range forecast. After a break late this
week, ensembles bring t-storm chances back to the area over the
weekend and into next week. Models also favor a general
"cooling" trend this weekend into early next week. Sunday and
Monday could be feature highs in the 70s...which is about 10
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry conditions expected through the afternoon hours...with a
batch of SCT-BKN low level stratus making ceilings a headache.
Area obs are showing ceilings hovering either side of 3k ft, so
both sides could go back and forth between VFR and MVFR through
mid-afternoon. Ceilings should lift later this afternoon back to
VFR. Southerly winds work back north through the area, can`t
rule out some gusts near 20 MPH through the afternoon hours.
This evening, focus turns to increasing thunderstorm
chances...as models show a line moving from west to east across
the forecast area...looking to affect the terminal areas mainly
around the 01-04Z, but could have some activity lingering around
later than that. Along with the precip chances, models continue
to show LLWS this evening into the overnight hours...strongest
out of the SSW through 07Z, then lighter but more of a direction
change aloft through 10Z. Winds just after sunrise look to turn
more WNWrly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion