Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

137
FXUS63 KOAX 040434
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1134 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moving in overnight brings scattered showers with a
  few rumbles of thunder to northeast Nebraska Tuesday morning
  (40-70% chance).

- Rain chances shift to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
  Tuesday evening into Wednesday (60-90% chance).

- Milder temperatures through Thursday, warming back up going
  into the weekend. Dry, seasonably warm weather expected over
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A few showers are starting to move into northeast Nebraska along
the cold front as it pushes into Knox County. As this front
moves through we`ll see winds shift to northerly and scattered
showers spread across the area. While model soundings show
decent shear (35-50kt) behind the front, instability will be
limited making it difficult for us to see much more than a few
lightning strikes with our strongest storms overnight.

Looking back at the larger picture we have a cold front moving
through, stemming from a longwave trough located over central
Canada. This cold front has brought a cooler Canadian air mass
south into the Northern Plains. The cold front looks to stall
across our area tomorrow. Showers and storms trigger along this
boundary as weak shortwaves move across our area. Showers will
likely remain fairly scattered through the morning into the
afternoon due to weak forcing. PWAT values north of our 90th
percentile may allow for some locally heavy rainfall from these
showers and storms, but they should move well enough to not be
much of a threat for flash flooding.

A more substantial shortwave moves through tomorrow night into
Wednesday bringing greater coverage of showers and storms.
Again, we`ll lack enough instability for much of a severe
weather threat overnight, but ample moisture as well as
potential for training storms along the frontal boundary could
lead to greater potential for flash flooding into Wednesday
morning. We`ll get a better idea of the exact corridor for
heavier rainfall once the front stalls this afternoon, but it
should land fairly close to our forecast right now for areas
along and just south of the I-80 corridor. Highest rainfall
amounts through Wednesday look to be mostly over our southwest
Iowa counties which could see around 1-2 inches of rain. Areas
along the heavier rain axis in Nebraska will more likely see
anywhere from 0.5-1.25 inches. Locally higher amounts will be
possible, especially if we see any training storms.

Showers and storms will taper off through the afternoon, ending
by around 7pm Wednesday evening. With cloud cover and rain
through much of the day, highs on Wednesday look to only reach
into the 70s. Even areas in northeast Nebraska that likely
won`t see much rain at all will see highs stay in the mid-to-
upper 70s due to the Canadian air mass in place.

Thursday we see one more vort max round the base of the upper-
level trough across our area before it slides off to the east.
This could bring a few light showers Thursday evening, but our
air mass should be too dry for much to reach the ground at that
point. Temperatures will stay fairly mild with mostly clear
skies, only reaching into the low 80s Thursday afternoon.

Going into the weekend, the ridge over the Desert Southwest
expands eastward, filling in behind the departing trough. This
will allow temperatures to warm back up with highs in the upper
80s on Friday and low-to-mid 90s on Saturday. Not expecting any
rain through the weekend, but will start watching for rain
chances returning possibly as early as Sunday night into early
Monday, but more likely Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. A front
pushing southward across the area through 04/10Z will shift
winds from southerly to northerly, with wind speeds gradually
becoming gusty (18-22 kts) behind the passage. Widely scattered
showers and storms are expected behind the front through much
of the morning and afternoon. These showers will be isolated in
coverage and transient, leading to low predictability in the
timeframe of impacts. Each terminals has a 20-30% chance of
showers through this period. Amendments will be made as
confidence in timing increases. Patchy MVFR conditions will be
possible under any heavier showers. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected near KOMA and KLNK during the final
few hours of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

812
FXUS63 KGID 032325
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity looks to push east
  into the area this evening/tonight. Not out of the question
  that a few storms early-mid evening could be on the strong to
  marginally severe side...mainly across far WNW portions of the
  area. Gusts around 60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the
  main threats.

- Tuesday and Wednesday continue to have chances for at least
  scattered showers/storms...severe weather is not anticipated.
  Sitting on the north side of the main surface cold front, more
  clouds/precip chances, will bring cooler highs for both
  days...with 70s for most locations.

- Forecast for Thursday on through next weekend is drier...with
  highs climbing back well into the 90s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Been a warmer, gusty start to the work week across the entire
forecast area...and while the majority are sitting with
little/no cloud cover, satellite imagery showing a fairly
thick batch of wildfire smoke passing through, keeping skies
hazy. This smoke has remain in the upper levels, with no area
automated sites showing any reductions in visibility, a trend
that should continue the rest of the day. Looking aloft, data
showing high pressure centered over AZ/NM...with a dampened
ridge axis extending northeastward through the Central Plains
toward the Great Lakes. Troughing/low pressure along the East
Coast is keeping this ridging from sliding east...while low
pressure over north-central Canada and southward extending
troughing into the NNWrn CONUS is what has diminished the ridge
strength. Satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance
making its way east across the Nrn Rockies...which will aid in
storm development with time this afternoon. At the surface, the
gusty south-southeasterly winds are being driven by a tightened
pressure gradient in place...set up between high pressure over
much of the Midwest and an approaching cold front. This front
currently sits from the southern NE panhandle up into central
SD...with winds across the forecast area gusting around 25-30
MPH. Temps are a touch warmer...with 3PM obs sitting in the mid
80s to mid 90s.

At least scattered activity is expected to continue developing
along that surface frontal boundary the rest of this
afternoon...with the main question going into this
evening/tonight continuing to lie with how much of an impact
there is on our forecast area. Models continue to the better
potential being several hours off yet, and kept an mention of
chances out through 00Z (some models say it could be closer to
02-03Z). Through the overnight hours...there still some
differences with just how much coverage there is, but general
idea is that things end up staying on the more scattered side.
Lift is aided by an increasing southwesterly LLJ, but the better
upper level forcing remains off to our north. Storm chances
have other things working against there being greater coverage
with time...loss of daytime heating. models showing warm mid-
level temps/capping remaining in place, and the further east
things push, should push out of the area of better instability.
Still not out of the question that a few storms early on could
be on the strong to marginally severe side...and our WNW
portions remain in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Gusts near
60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the primary hazards.
Didn`t get cute with PoPs through the overnight hours...pretty
much anywhere could see at least an isolated shower/storm, so
kept the 20 percent chances going CWA-wide.

The main surface cold front will continue sinking south with
time overnight...by 12Z Tuesday, models are in pretty good
agreement showing the front draped across the southeastern
quarter or so of the forecast area. May end up with a gradient
in lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the far NW to
around 70 in the SE.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall, no notable changes in the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday...with continued precipitation chances and cooler
temperatures still expected. Models remain in generally good
agreement in the broader-scale. showing the upper level pattern
remaining zonal across the Central Plains. Although on the
weaker side, models showing the potential for enough lift
lingering around to keep chances for at least spotty
precipitation around for much of the day. Still some differences
and uncertainty with the overall coverage...and whether there
is a bit stronger of a wave/more precip coverage as we get more
into the evening/overnight hours into Wed AM. NBM have some
widespread, higher PoPs between 06-18Z Wed (60-70 percent)...the
models supporting that timing show the better potential mainly
across portions of south central NE. Still looking like the
potential for severe weather is low, better instability should
be becoming more focused to our south. With the increased cloud
cover, precipitation chances, and continued northeasterly winds
behind the cold front...high temperatures are forecast to range
from the low 70s-low 80s on Tuesday to low-mid 70s for
Wednesday.

Thursday and on...

For the end of this week on into the start of next week...again
not much as far as notable changes go in the forecast. Models
continue to show the upper level pattern across the region in
varying degrees of west-northwesterly flow. The main ridge tries
to build back north over the western CONUS...but additional
larger-scale disturbances mainly moving across Canada prevent it
from amplifying too much. Precipitation chances Thursday
through the weekend are spotty at best...and confidence in those
chances are certainly not high at this point. After the cooler
temps Tue-Wed, temperatures look to bounce back well into the
90s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front will bring a shift in winds at the terminals
overnight along with the chance for a few thunderstorms this
evening followed by some light rain showers and breezy north
winds during the daytime hours Tuesday.

Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the next several hours
ahead of this cold front...with gusty southerly winds relaxing
by 04/01-04/02Z. Light and variable winds will then precede the
cold front, with northerly winds settling in behind the front by
around 04/08Z. The best shot for a -TSRA will be between
04/03-04/08Z...with MVFR stratus then possibly filling in behind
the front along with a few light rain showers at times through
04/15Z. CIGS should improve thereafter, with gusty north winds
to around 22-25 KTS during the afternoon hours along with a VCSH
or -SHRA continuing throughout the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion