55°F
Updated:
4/13/2021
3:27:33pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
190 FXUS63 KOAX 131732 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 .Today and Tonight: A mid/upper-level cyclone over the upper MS Valley early this morning will edge slowly east in response to the amplification of an upstream trough across the interior West. In the low levels, a weakening pressure gradient will be offset by the diurnal steepening of lapse rates to yield breezy conditions across the northern half of our area today, where wind gusts of 30-35 mph are possible. Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 40s near the SD border where some clouds could linger, to mid to upper 50s over southeast NE and southwest IA. And while temperatures will remain below seasonal normals, the gusty winds in conjunction with an ambient, dry air mass will promote pockets of high to very high rangeland fire danger this afternoon. A surface ridge will strengthen over the mid MO Valley tonight, resulting in decreasing winds and mostly clear skies. Those conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s over northeast NE and west-central IA with 30-33F possible south of I-80. We are aware that some orchards in southeast NE and southwest IA are ahead of schedule with the fruit-tree blossoms now susceptible to freezing temperatures. Therefore, a freeze warning may need to be considered for the area at some point today. .Wednesday and Thursday: The above-mentioned, western U.S. trough is forecast to track from the Great Basin into the central Rockies with a downstream ridge amplifying over the Great Plains. In the low levels, persistent surface ridging will maintain a cool, Canadian air mass over the region with highs in the 50s. .Thursday night into Friday night: The central Rockies disturbance is forecast to track east through the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley, supporting a chance of rain. Highest rainfall amounts (i.e., less than a quarter inch) are currently expected over southeast NE. This weekend into early next week: The 00z global models advertise the continued presence of a mid- level trough over the central U.S. into early next week. That scenario would translate to below-normal afternoon temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 VFR criteria will prevail for the TAF period. Primary forecast concern is strong northwest winds. Strongest winds will be in northeast Nebraska where gusts up to 30 kts are expected. Weaker gusts are expected at KOMA and KLNK. Winds expected to diminish quickly after 01Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Fajman
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
000 FXUS63 KGID 131704 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 The forecast reflects several days of cooler temps and decent rain chances Thursday night through Friday night. Patternwise...a couple of closed upper low pressure systems dominated the weather pattern across the northern half of the CONUS with one located around the Great Basin area and another in the Upper Midwest. Our region remains in between the systems in a rather cool, dry pattern. Temps today will below seasonal normals...averaging in the 50s for highs and as mixing deepens during the day northwest wind gusts will average 20-30 mph. Then tonight is shaping up to be quite chilly with low temps forecast below the freezing mark...and we aren`t looking for much change in the cooler days and colder nights for the majority of the forecast period. The eastern upper low reaches Michigan on Wednesday while the western system edges farther south into Nevada. Our area will be in between the systems in a still cool regime. Light precip is possible to our west mainly along the front range/high plains aided by upslope flow, but precip just doesn`t look like it`ll get this far east yet and have kept the forecast dry. Models have been rather consistent with our best chances for rain arriving in the Thursday night through Friday night time frame as the western upper low begins to emerge from the Rockies and crosses the Central Plains. Precipitation type primarily favors a cold rain but we could see a rain/snow mix or brief change to snow in our western counties. Through Thursday night which doesn`t encompass the entire system yet, liquid precip amounts are forecast to range from a few hundredths of an inch...to near one half inch (east/west)...so look for updates on potential precip amounts in upcoming forecasts. Attm if we see a transition to snow in our northwest zones, amounts are expected to be light and mainly confined to elevated or grassy surfaces. The operational ECMWF is a little faster with the progression of the late week system than the GFS and the GFS holds onto precip longer into Saturday. Have not deviated from the ensemble blend and have maintained a dry forecast for the weekend. Sunday should see a slight warming trend behind the departing trough and ahead of another system translating towards the Northern Plains from Canada. If model trends hold, this next system would send another cold front across our region Monday and could produce some precip, but given the latter part of the forecast time frame will monitor trends and refine details as things get closer. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep WNW winds over the area during the TAF period. Winds will gust into the low 20s this afternoon and will taper down into the single digits this evening. Mid and high clouds are forecast through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fay AVIATION...Beda
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