Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

285
FXUS63 KOAX 141112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
512 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and potentially record-breaking temperatures
  today.

- Very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska this afternoon.

- 30 to 50 percent chance for precipitation Monday. While mostly
  rain is expected, there is a 10-25% chance for some snow to
  mix in over northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today...

Light patchy fog crept into low lying areas in southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa overnight, dropping visibilities to 3 to 7 miles
in some locations. Temperatures only dipped into the upper 30s to
mid 40s by 2 AM, with light southerly winds.

A ridge will shift eastward, bringing another push of well above
normal temperatures to the Central Plains. Southwesterly winds will
draw highs into the 70s today, with a few locations pushing toward
80. Daily records will be threatened at all three climate sites this
afternoon. Norfolk is forecast to reach 78, easily breaking the
record of 72 degrees, set in 2001. Lincoln is expected to reach 77,
surpassing their record of 75, set in 1990. Omaha`s record of 76,
set in 1964, has the best chance of surviving, as they are only
forecast to reach 76 this afternoon.

In combination with the warm temperatures, breezy southwest winds
and persistent dry conditions will bring an increased risk for fire
danger, primarily across far northeast Nebraska. There, minimum
relative humidities will dip to 19-25 percent this afternoon.
Thankfully, wind gusts will remain 20 kts or less. Therefore, kept
the region west of a line from Columbus to Wayne, NE limited to Very
High Fire Danger, with Red Flag Warnings just to the west of our
CWA. However, we will keep a close eye on conditions this afternoon,
as it wouldn`t take much for fires to spread rapidly.

Saturday and Sunday...

An upper trough moving from Canada into the Great Lakes region will
draw a surface cold front across the forecast area this weekend.
Temperatures will slip back into the mid to upper 60s Saturday with
upper 50s to low 60s forecast for Sunday. While not quite as
comfortable as Friday`s mid/upper 70s, temperatures will still be 5
to 15 degrees above normal for mid November. While a sprinkle or two
can`t be completely ruled out with the frontal passage tonight,
better columnar moisture associated with this system is expected to
remain well to our north, allowing dry conditions to prevail through
the weekend.

Monday and Beyond...

The next low pressure system to impact the region will move out of
the Rockies Sunday night, and into the Central Plains on Monday.
While the GFS continues to remain the slightly cooler solution,
indicating the potential for snow to mix in across northeast
Nebraska and western Iowa, the majority of model guidances remains
warmer. All together, ensemble solutions indicate a 40-70%
chance of precipitation, with only around a 10-25% chance for
light snow late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
Thankfully, even if a few flakes do fly, impacts would be
minimal given the warm surface temperatures, as afternoon highs
are still expected to reach the 40s and 50s, Monday.

Temperatures will remain cool through the middle of next week, with
highs in the 40s and 50s Tuesday through Friday. Our next storm
system looks to arrive late Wednesday and into Thursday, likely
bringing rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Patchy fog has developed across parts of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa with visibilities as low as 1 to 1/4 SM in a few
location. However,VFR conditions will likely prevail at the TAF
sites. Light southerly winds will increase to 10 to 12 kts this
afternoon, with the occasional gust up to 15 to 20 kts possible
after 20Z. Winds drop below 10 kts around 03Z tonight, with the
potential for LLWS developing at KOMA and KLNK between 06-12Z
Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

735
FXUS63 KGID 141124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record warm temperatures are expected today with highs in the upper
  70s to low 80s.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s-low 70s
  and mostly sunny skies.

- Cooler and rainy weather arrives on Monday, with rain possible
  (15-50%) mainly across south central Nebraska.

- Cooler and active weather continues through the end of the
  forecast period with highs in the 40s/50s and scattered
  chances (20- 40%) for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today...

Temperatures this morning range from the mid 30s (west) to the upper
40s (east). Patchy fog looks to stay just southeast of the area this
morning, though can`t completely rule out patchy (not dense) fog
sneaking into areas like Hebron or Beloit.

Temperatures will quickly climb above normal, surpassing their
climatological normal highs (low 50s) by the late morning hours.
Record warm temperatures are expected by the afternoon, as
temperatures top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. The record high at
Grand Island (71 degrees in 2001/1990) and Hastings (74 degrees in
1990) look to be surpassed/broken fairly easily. This will likely be
the warmest day for the rest of the year as upper 70s/80s are very
uncommon in the second half of November/December. Get outside and
enjoy this weather if you can!

The record warmth will result in afternoon relative humidity values
falling to around 15-25%. The strongest winds are expected to remain
northwest of the area, which should help to limit fire weather
concerns across the area. Still, areas north of I-80 could see winds
gusting around 20mph during the afternoon, resulting in a period of
near-critical fire weather conditions.

Saturday and Sunday ...

A passing shortwave trough pushes a cool front through the area on
Saturday. Cooler, but well above normal temperatures are expected on
Saturday as highs climb into the mid 60s (north) to low 70s. Mostly
sunny skies and northerly wind gusts below 20mph will make for an
overall pleasant day.

Seasonably warm temperatures continue on Sunday, as winds shift to
the south ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs in the 60s
are expected on Sunday, warmest across portions of north central
Kansas. Get outside and enjoy the weather this weekend if you can,
because cooler and more active weather arrives next week.

Monday and Tuesday..

A shortwave trough moves into the plains on Monday, bringing the
next chance for rain to the area. Model guidance continues to
support the center a low tracking across Kansas, with rain
developing along the warm front in Nebraska. Most guidance indicates
this system remaining entirely as rain, as cold air struggles to
filter into the system. The deterministic GFS continues to be an
outlier in bringing in colder air and resulting in a rain/snow mix
across Nebraska. Ensemble guidance shows little support for a
rain/snow transition, further suggesting that a transition to snow
(GFS) is an unlikely scenario. Given the track of the surface low,
the best chance for rain will be north of I-80, with the lowest
chances across north central Kansas. Rain accumulations will range
from little to no rain across north central Kansas (less than 0.10),
to a couple of tenths north of I-80. Rain chances come to an end
Monday night as the low moves into the Midwest, with lows dropping
into the upper 20s to low 30s Monday night.

Tuesday Onwards...

Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through the rest
of the forecast period with highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in
the 20s/30s. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move
through the area during this time period, though spread in model
guidance brings some uncertainty on the exact timing and position of
rain chances. Still, this active pattern results in scattered
chances (20-40%) through the end of the forecast period. For now,
these chances look to primarily bring rain, though this could change
as we get closer to the event and model alignment increases.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southwest winds will
increase to around 10-15kts this afternoon, falling below 10kts
after sunset. Winds shift to the northwest late in the TAF
period as a cold front moves through the area. FEW-SCT high
level clouds will become SCT-BKN overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion