Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

834
FXUS63 KOAX 071816
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
116 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and
  storm chances from Wednesday through the weekend.

- Temperatures will vacillate between seasonal norms (highs in
  the 50s) and well-above normal (highs 70s)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Heaviest showers are well into central Iowa this afternoon, but
as forecast, light rain showers have developed over the southern
half of the CWA this afternoon with a weak shortwave quickly
passing overhead. Expect to lose those radar returns around
sunset. QPF is negligible.

Southerly winds pick up speed overnight with 50-60 knot winds
at H9. Sustained surface winds of 15-25mph are expected with
widespread gusts of 35 mph.

Breezy southerly winds are replaced over the course of the day
on Wednesday with northwesterly winds as a cold front slides
southeast. It`ll find its way through Columbus around noon and
through the remainder of far southeast Nebraska/SW Iowa around
7pm. With partly cloudy skies forecast, temps should manage
widespread 70s with some 60s reserved for the soggiest areas of
this morning. NBM was overzealous in its PoPs along this front
through Wednesday`s first half, so I pushed them closer to
20-25% until 4pm- ish during the day`s maximum heat. With the
steep lapse rates forecast, some thunder is expected for areas
along and south of I-80 though severe weather chances are
negligible on this side of the Kansas state line.

The stalled front may help initiate more shower activity on
Thursday afternoon as a lee sfc trof pushes along the boundary.
Forecast soundings suggest enough shear and instability to
produce strong to severe storms.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

Regular chances of showers seem like a safe bet (60-80%) through
the weekend as strong moisture return develops ahead of West
Coast trofing. PWAT values by Saturday night of 1.5" are near
the 99th percentile for this time of the year, so despite not
yet being forecast, heavier rain is possible. The week`s warmest
temps coincide with the weekend. Saturday`s highs settle near
70F with another five degrees added atop for Sunday.

Monday sees an upper level trof driving another cold front
through the area. This allows drier and cooler air to sweep in
from the northwest for Tuesday. The SPC has already highlighted
southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa as having a chance for
severe weather next Monday ahead of that cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

MVFR cigs across the area are generally overcast at FL012. Have
continued forecasting a minor deterioration of conditions at
KOMA this evening as cigs fall to IFR category. Visibility may
fall to 4-6 miles.

East-southeasterly winds will become more southerly by midnight.
Strongest winds will be just off the surface with speeds of
50-60 knots leading to wind shear issues.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

334
FXUS63 KGID 071751
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wide range in temperatures today from warm SW to cool NE.
  Can`t guarantee today stays completely dry, but not expecting
  much more than sprinkles.

- Cold front moves through the area during the day Wednesday.
  S/SE areas warm nicely into the 70s, whereas a N/NW areas
  behind the front are held in the 60s.

- There is a marginal threat for a few severe storms Wednesday
  afternoon and evening along the frontal zone, and again on
  Thursday, affecting areas mainly along and S of the KS/SE
  state line.

- Rain and storm chances increase Thursday through Sunday with
  chances up to 80% across portions of the area, at times. With
  that said, there will be some "winners & losers" when it comes
  to rain amounts, with overall highest amounts favoring
  locations S and E of the Tri-Cities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

As discussed yesterday, the primary band of rain and wet snow
today was looking to set up mainly NE/E of the area, and that
has panned out as expected. We still have some very low end PoPs
smattereed across the area today, mainly to account for some
weak waves interacting with some moisture in the 10-15K ft
layer, as well as near the surface. In between these two
moisture layers, some drier air should limit overall
organization of any rain today to mainly sprinkles/trace amnts.
Clouds will be thickest and more prevalent from around the Tri-
Cities and esp. to the N and E...and this is where highs will be
coolest in the 50s to lower 60s. KS zones are expected to warm
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. So perhaps a solid ~25 degree
gradient between Columbus area and Plainville.

Yesterday`s cold front returns northward tonight thanks to incr
low level jet/warm air advection, ahead of yet another cold
front. This next cold front is forecast to move through NW to SE
during the daytime hours on Wed. Tri-Cities N and W probably
stay in the 60s given latest timing of frontal passage in the AM
to early aftn. Areas S of a line from PHG to JYR will likely
warm well into the 70s - perhaps even flirting with 80F in north
central KS. Isolated t-storms remain a possibility along the
front late aftn into the evening, mainly for areas from around
Plainville to Hebron. With that said, some of the latest model
trends are a bit faster with the front, and thus, further S/SE
with the iso t-storm threat. Should something develop, there
remains a Marginal Risk for a few strong-severe storms with
gusty winds and quarter to half dollar size hail the main
threats. An increasing low level jet and at least weak ascent
back up and over the elevated frontal zone could support at
least a few elevated supercells overnight - though the presence
of such activity and overall coverage remains uncertain.

Looks like the highest rain chances for the work week will be on
Thursday, but esp. Thursday night. Still think just about
anywhere in the CWA can get at least SOME moisture out of this
system, but models are really honing in on S/SE/E portions of
the forecast area as having the greatest potential for scattered
to widespread appreciable (0.50"+) rainfall. Areas N and NW of
the Tri-Cities could be rather disappointed come Fri AM.

Rain chances continue Friday and into the weekend, though
(frankly) have my suspicions that the latest NBM is overdone on
these chances, at least for the daytime hours Friday. Pattern
will indeed remain active (esp. when compared to fast few
months), but this is to be expected for April...and similar to
Thursday, believe actual rain amounts could be quite variable
over the weekend. Bottom line - still expect a couple (few?)
rounds of much needed moisture next several days, but probably
not as widespread as many would hope...with SE areas having
better chances than NW areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A broad upper trough extends over the Northeast and Midwest with
Nebraska and Kansas along the backside of the trough. A surface high
out of Canada extends southward to Nebraska. Enhanced atmospheric
lift is over the area which has resulted in some rain showers moving
across northeast Nebraska. The surface high and cloud cover has kept
temperatures cooler across most of the area today, but a warm front
across Kansas is expected to move a little further northward this
afternoon. This front may reach into north central Kansas and may
result in temperatures across portions of Rooks, Osborne, and
Mitchell Counties warming up into the 70s. If the warm front makes
it that far north, humidity values may drop to around 20% to 25%
across portions of the above mentioned counties. Wind gusts across
north central Kansas may get up to around 20 MPH which may create
near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. High
temperatures today are expected to range from the 40s across far
northern portions of the forecast area with temperatures across far
southern areas possibly reaching into the 70s. Upper level lift will
increase across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas tonight as temperatures drop to around or below freezing.
This will likely result in a mix of rain and snow across most of the
forecast area. Any snow accumulations are expected to be a half inch
or less.

The cooler air is expected to linger across most of the area on
Tuesday with rain and snow showers lingering into the morning hours.
There is some uncertainty in regards to high temperatures on Tuesday
due to uncertainties with how long the cooler air will linger before
a warm front lifts northward across the area. Low temperatures
Tuesday night in the wake of the warm front will be mostly in the
40s. An upper trough will be over the northern Rocky Mountains and
will extend to the Upper Midwest on Wednesday with it extending
southward over Nebraska into Kansas. A cold front associated with
this trough will push into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures are
expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday with a surface
trough present ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop along this front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increased
CAPE, wind shear, lapse rates, and atmospheric lift will result in a
marginal threat for severe storms. This threat will mainly be for
north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

Cooler air will continue pushing into the area on Thursday but there
are some uncertainties with how far south the cold front will get.
Rain, with possibly some thunderstorms, is expected along and behind
the front. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to range from
the upper 50s to 70s. The cooler air will remain in place on Friday
with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Shortwave
troughs are expected to move over the area on Saturday allowing for
more chances (65% to 80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
are generally expected to warm up on Saturday although there is some
uncertainty to the degree of warm up due to moisture and cloud
cover. More chances (35% to 65%) of showers and thunderstorms are
present on Sunday as more shortwaves move over the area. Sunday may
end up being the warmest day of the forecast with highs in the 70s
and 80s with winds increasing out of the south to southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level stratus continues to diminish from south to north
early this afternoon...likely only lingering around the terminal
areas for another hour or so. Once this stratus pushes north,
VFR conditions are forecast for the remainder of the period.
Breezy south-southeasterly winds continue this afternoon-
evening...turning more south, then southwesterly, overnight
tonight. Models continue to show the potential for LLWS at both
sites, running roughly from 03-04Z through 13-14Z. For the final
few hours of this period, a cold front will start working its
way in, turning winds more westerly, then northwesterly.
Upcoming TAFs will have a chance to fine-tune the timing of the
frontal passage.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion