Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

626
FXUS63 KOAX 272340
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
640 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures today behind a cold front. Below-normal
  temperatures with a medium (30-60%) chance of showers on
  Tuesday.

- Near-normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday with a low
  (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

- A gradual warming trend by the end of this week into this
  weekend with dry weather expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

After an active period of weather last week and weekend, a much
quieter weather pattern in taking shape for this week. A cold
front moved across the region this morning, ushering in cooler
temperatures. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are
quickly exiting the region to the east early this afternoon.
Gusty northwest winds remain behind the cold front into this
evening. Temperatures have already reached their highs for the
day as temperatures are holding steady or falling behind the
front.

Tuesday will start cold as 30s are likely for the area. There is
a low (10-20%) chance of frost across portions of northeast
Nebraska where temperatures fall to near-freezing. That said,
lingering winds and relatively warm ground temperatures should
keep frost at bay. Despite surface high pressure building across
the Great Plains, a chance of showers returns by Tuesday
afternoon as a mid-level disturbance moves overhead. While
there is a medium (30-60%) chance for rain across the area, dry
air near the surface will greatly limit what actually reaches
the ground. Temperatures should be well below normal with highs
in the 50s due to continued cloud cover and rain chances. Once
again, temperatures fall into the 30s for most by Wednesday
morning.

Temperatures return to near normal by Wednesday afternoon and
Thursday afternoon with largely zonal mid-level flow taking
shape over the region. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 30s and
40s are to be expected. There is at least a low (10-20%) chance
of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm on Thursday with another
passing mid-level disturbance. That said, limited moisture
should limit what actually reaches the ground.

By the end of this week into this weekend, a warming trend
begins. This is supported by a upper-level ridge building across
the western third of the country. Temperatures climb into the
70s to near 80 through this period. Dry weather is anticipated
at this time, with sunny skies forecast through this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail across the area this evening with
widespread stratus at FL020. Expect to see cigs lift just after
midnight tonight as breezy northwesterly winds continue to slow.

Tuesday brings a chance of showers (30-40%) to the area mid-
day. Gave a large window of possible shower activity in the
afternoon tomorrow at KOFK and KLNK and left KOMA dry for now
due to lower confidence. Expect any shower activity to be spotty
and occasional.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

059
FXUS63 KGID 272249
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Starting very late tonight, and continuing through Thursday
  night, there will be intermittent chances for light showers
  and perhaps a few WEAK thunderstorms (chances for severe
  storms through at least the next 7 days appear almost non-
  existent).

- Frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temperatures will come into
  play for at least portions (potentially most?) of our forecast
  area (CWA), especially late Tues night-Wed AM and then again
  Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri night-Sat AM. Still a little
  uncertainty on temps, so no formal Advisories/Warnings out
  just yet.

- Precipitation-wise beyond Thursday night: Fairly high
  confidence that at least Fri-Sat remain dry (possibly Sun-Mon
  too, but not as "certain"). The bottom line: Take what rain
  you can get through Thursday night.

- Temperature-wise: a stretch of somewhat-cool weather for late
  April/early May, especially through Friday (highs mainly
  50s-low 60s/overnight lows mainly low 30s-low 40s). Sat-Mon
  then brings a modest warm-up...but still a far cry from "hot"
  with highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s.

- On a positive note: For the first in at least weeks, there are
  NO apparent heightened/critical "fire weather days" through at
  least the next week (due in part to the cooler temperatures),
  although perhaps some "near-critical" conditions could sneak
  back into play by Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- No truly "major" changes of note from previous forecast issued
early this AM.

- As already alluded to in the Key Messages above, we are  actually
in the midst of a fairly "ideal" weather pattern for  the next
several days: seasonably-cool with intermittent rain  chances and NO
higher-end fire weather setups OR chances for   severe storms. The
only folks who might complain are the "warm  weather lovers", as no
days with 80+ degree highs will occur   anytime soon.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Mon. May 4):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
First, a quick recap of rainfall over the last 48 hours:
Back on Thursday, this forecaster mentioned that MOST of our CWA
would hopefully pick up at least 0.50-1.00". Fortunately, MOST
places in fact did. However, as always there were lower
exceptions on either side. On the low end, a few western and
also southeastern counties (particularly much of
Dawson/Gosper/Nuckolls/Clay/Thayer) fell solidly short of
0.50...but at least mostly picked up at least 0.25". On the
higher end of things, a stripe running very roughly from west of
Hastings to north of Aurora picked up at least 1.50" (localized
3"), while parts of several of our KS counties also saw at least
1.50-2.00". All in all, decent totals, but it sure would have
been nice if EVERYBODY had gotten at least 0.50".

On to the here and now:
The last of the spotty showers/weak thunderstorms from the
weekend system either dissipated over/departed east of our
forecast area (CWA) several hours ago now, with this afternoon
featuring dry conditions under skies ranging from cloudy/mostly
cloudy across roughly the northeastern 2/3rds of our CWA, to
partly cloudy (even pockets of mostly sunny) within our
southwestern 1/3rd. Its been breezy to somewhat-windy area wide,
with sustained northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts
25-35 MPH. High temperatures are on track to range from upper
40s-low 50s far north-northeast, to a mix of mid-upper 50s
across most of our Nebraska counties, to low-mid 60s mainly in
our KS counties along with Furnas County area.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short-term model data clearly show us "in between"
disturbances, with the departing one exiting over IA/MO, while
the next main shortwave trough is working its way through the
CA/NV/AZ border area...with weaker "ripples" extending out ahead
of it into the Central Rockies.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Fairly high confidence that our entire CWA makes it through at
least midnight dry, as breezy winds gradually subside and turn
more northerly. Then, between midnight and sunrise Tuesday (but
mainly after 3-4 AM), a weak upper wave arriving from the west
will generate at least a narrow, generally west-east oriented
band of chilly light rain. There is some uncertainty on the
"exact" placement of this rain band, and rain chances (PoPs) are
likely too broad in north-south extent, but consensus of latest
models favors the western half of our Nebraska CWA for the
highest chances for at least few hundredths of pre-sunrise rain.
Briefly touching on precip type, we are expecting this
precipitation to be ALL RAIN within our CWA, but please note
that some slushy snow could mix in with the rain not all that
far west-northwest of our CWA (out over the Sandhills), so
again, this will be a chilly rain. As for temps, am counting on
a mix of continued low clouds and then quite a few mid-high
clouds arriving from the west (especially post-midnight) to keep
things from "tanking" too far...and some places could see lows
reached closer to midnight with steady/very slightly rising
temps thereafter as clouds/precip arrives. If anything nudged up
lows very slightly from previous, aiming most of the CWA between
35-39 degrees. Although this is technically cold enough for at
least limited frost development (especially far northwest), the
increasing clouds and/or rain moving in should largely prove
unfavorable, and we don`t have any frost in the official
forecast.


- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
It`s becoming pretty clear that this will be the overall-coolest
and (in various places) overall-wettest daytime of the week.
Aloft, the next low amplitude shortwave trough swings directly
through the Central Plains, driving continued chances for at
least scattered light rain showers especially within our
Nebraska counties (lower chances in KS). We`re certainly not
talking big amounts (most places no more than 0.05-0.20"), but
we`ll take what we can get! A rogue rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out, but with such meager instability have omitted from
official forecast. Temperature-wise, if anything nudged down
highs very slightly from previous, with most of our CWA
(especially Nebraska) aimed 49-54, and the majority of any mid-
upper 50s focused in KS. Finally, it will not be as windy as
today, with speeds mainly around 10 MPH out of the north to
northeast.


- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Right away early in the evening (mainly pre-nightfall) we could
still see some lingering light rain showers in our north-
northeast zones, and perhaps a few showers sneaking into our far
southwestern zones out of southwestern NE. However, high
confidence that it`s dry through the night most all areas
(especially beyond 10 PM). Winds will only average around 5 MPH
or less from a mainly northerly or westerly direction. That
leaves cloud cover (and resultant temperatures) as the "million
dollar question" that could ultimately make-or-break the
development of frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temps.
Unfortunately, there is some uncertainty here, but our latest
forecast is geared toward "mostly clear skies with patches of
lower stratus here or there"). Assuming this plays out, temps
should have no problem dropping well into the 31-36 range most
places, with areas of frost a decent bet. That being said, IF
low stratus remains more stubborn, it could remain a few-to-
several degrees warmer. Given these modest uncertainties,
refrained from issuing any Frost Advisories and/or Freeze
Warnings on this shift, but these will be strongly considered
within the next 24 hours. One one final note, we could also
perhaps see some patchy fog development, but have kept this out
of the official forecast for now.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT:
Aloft, our area will reside under west-northwesterly flow, as a
few fairly weak disturbances brush through our area. At the
surface, the main feature will be a weak cold front dropping
through from the north on Thursday. Precipitation-wise, while
most of Wed daytime will remain dry, isolated showers/weak
thunderstorms could drift into mainly our northern/western
counties late Wed afternoon into Wed night, with additional
chances for isolated/scattered activity targeting mainly our
southern/southwestern CWA Thursday daytime-evening before rain
chances vacate southward late.

Temperature-wise, highs both days are fairly similar (mainly
low-mid 60s). As for overnight lows, Wed night appears a touch
warmer given more clouds and areas of rain, with lows mainly
upper 30s-low 40s and thus minimal frost concerns. However,
Thurs night-Fri AM looks chillier (lows mainly low-mid 30s) and
perhaps more favorable for frost and/or slightly sub-freezing
temps.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
Fairly high confidence in our going dry forecast, as we reside
under rather benign north-northwesterly flow aloft (to the west-
southwest of a large-scale low centered over the eastern Great
Lakes region). Friday looks to be our final "coolish" day with
highs low-mid 60s, with Saturday then turning about 10 degrees
warmer (mainly low-mid 70s) as breezes turn southerly. One final
opportunity for frost development could arise Fri night-Sat AM
before the warm-up commences.


- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
While latest ECMWF/GFS suggests that most of these two days will
be dry, they also both show some spotty light shower potential
mainly Sunday-Sunday night as an upper wave passes through in
the continued north-northwesterly flow aloft (our official
forecast currently assigns most of these small rain chances to
Sunday night). Temperature-wise, some guidance suggests our
forecast could be aiming a touch too warm, but for now we are
calling for highs mainly mid 70s both days, with MAYBE our far
south-southwestern counties touching 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to hover between VFR and MVFR (2-4kft)
through most of the period. Currently VFR ceilings may dip back
to MVFR this evening before improving again later tonight.

Rain showers move in from the west on Tuesday. A few showers are
possible as early as 10Z, but the most likely timeframe is late
morning through mid afternoon.

Northwest winds decrease tonight and turn to the northeast for
Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion