40°F
Updated:
12/20/2025
4:30:00pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
988 FXUS63 KOAX 202144 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 344 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy tomorrow, with gusts out of the southwest at 25-35 mph developing late-morning, lasting through the afternoon. - Temperatures will warm up into the 50s next week, with 60s forecast by Christmas day. - Dry conditions are expected through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon features largely zonal flow that is only slightly depressed heading into the Great Lakes, while only mid and high clouds waft along the NE/KS and IA/MO borders locally. Northwesterly winds that were gusting to 25-30 mph late this morning have trended lighter, with a wind shift poised to send directions southwesterly and light overnight into early tomorrow. This morning`s warm conditions won`t be reproduced tonight/tomorrow morning, as we clear out almost completely aside from a few stray high clouds that will allow for radiational cooling to occur and drive temperatures down into the low 20s. Tomorrow, the low-level thermal profile will get a boost as the surface pressure gradient tightens and allows for warming southwesterly winds that will gust in the 25-35 mph range, with the strongest wind gusts across northeast Nebraska. If temperatures over-perform the current forecast by a good margin (on the order of 5 degrees above the forecast 45-49 degrees) we could flirt with increased fire danger. Bias corrected guidance like the NBM are still planning on lighter winds compared to the forecast while there is upward potential to gust speeds according to the HRRR/RAP. By late evening, winds will be trending downward and slightly increased cloud cover to start the night will keep lows from dipping too far, and should have them hovering near to just above freezing at their lowest. Monday and Beyond: To start the work week the mid/upper zonal flow from the weekend should transition into ridging centered over the Great Plains and the jet stream`s axis will have been pushed up to the ND/Canada area. As a result, the temperatures during the week will have folks considering celebrating Christmas dinner outside rather than huddled next to a fire. Highs that were in the 40s for Sat/Sun will give way to temperatures in the 50s, with the warmest day of them all being Christmas. Chances for rain will also be in short supply, as any passing chances for rain get relegated north of the area, closer to the main jet stream axis. How warm are we thinking Christmas is going to be? Here is what we have as of now, compared to the records for Omaha, Lincoln and Norfolk: ........Fcst..Record..... Omaha 61 57 (1946) Lincoln 65 65 (1889) Norfolk 64 63 (1963) By the time the weekend arrives, precipitation chance will be on the increase as action along the Pacific Coast trends southward and some form of trough sneaks between what will be a bifurcated flow pattern. Agreement on exactly what it will look like and when it arrives is pretty poor as of now, but we should see something in the form of rain with snow being a long shot due to the warmer pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with winds currently out of the northwest gusting at KOMA/KLNK expected to quiet down over the first couple of hours of the TAF. Overnight, winds will continue to fall off speed-wise but will also switch to the south-southwest for the remainder of the forecast, before gusts begin redeveloping closer to noon tomorrow underneath only a few high clouds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
562 FXUS63 KGID 202211 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 411 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very mild Christmas week across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas with highs largely in the 50s and 60s. - No precipitation is forecast and no weather-related travel impacts are expected during the week ahead. - High temperatures were raised a few degrees on Christmas Day. Potential record warmth with a 70%+ likelihood of breaking the record high at Grand Island around an 80% chance of doing the same at Hastings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Surface high pressure is moving across the region and will help to quickly spin winds down the rest of the afternoon. That should help temperatures drop nicely this evening. Southerly winds will develop overnight and may hold temperatures up a few degrees though we will still be deep into the 20s with a very dry airmass. Those southerly winds will continue all day Sunday with gusts in the afternoon of 20 to 30 mph by afternoon. That may push temperatures up a few degrees from today but it will probably feel colder than today. On Monday, a surge of warm air will move into the region added by a solid westerly downslope wind the H85-700 layer. Surface winds will turn more southwest and skies look largely sunny. All that will spell highs back into the upper 50s and 60s. For comparison, normal high temperatures range from 37 to 43 degrees, north-to-south, across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. As has been well discussed, the week ahead is dry and mild, though there some minor ups and downs temperature-wise due to two or three frontal passages. After a very warm Monday, the first "cold" front moves late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the north with some cold advection and drop high temperatures on Tuesday back to the 50s. That is still 15-18 degrees warmer than normal. Warm advection, dry conditions and a more favorable westerly component wind will push temperatures back up again Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Christmas Eve might be a stretch for records (in the middle 60s) but Christmas Day highs in the 60s, or even lower 70s in north central Kansas put record high temperatures in jeopardy for sure. The wind is a bit more westerly Christmas Day which will aid the warm up further. One nice thing is wind speeds are "tame" for late December and likely to hold mostly under 15 mph both Christmas Eve and Christmas, though could pick up a bit Christmas afternoon ahead of an approaching front. The very dry antecedent conditions will help promote wider diurnal ranges. So while we could be also be flirting with record warm overnight lows, we may also cool a bit more overnight than currently forecast due the dry ground conditions and fairly light wind regime. We will have to watch cloud cover, as even thin high clouds can have a couple degrees off the warmth of the day this time of year. Overall, its hard to find a better Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in terms of pleasant weather and no travel impacts for south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. After Christmas, we see the next front as early as Friday, with potentially another one on its heels for Saturday. It is still mild Friday and Saturday but the trend is to turn cooler next weekend. In fact, the front on Friday may drop temperatures to colder levels then the current forecast of 50s...as there are signs of a nice backdoor push of cold air with the most recent deterministic models runs. This will be something to watch and refine. Eventually, its does look colder, at least closer to normal, by New Year`s Day. It dry and going to remain dry. Multiple model ensembles suggest a less than 50-50 chance of total precipitation of 0.10" (a tenth) during the next 10-15 days! Have said that, while the week ahead does look dry, there have been some hints of light precipitation potential around December 28-29-30 per EC/GEFS/Canadian ensembles as a possible weather system migrates across the southern Plains. Its early and any precipitation potential looks very low end, and in liquid form at this time. Whatever this system ends up being, it could signal a slightly more active weather pattern the first week of January. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are forecast throughout the forecast period for both KGRI and KEAR airports. North winds may be gusty for a couple more hours early this afternoon before the gusts taper off and winds drop as surface high pressure moves quickly into the area. Winds will be light and variable this evening but switch to the south overnight on the backside of the highs. Windspeeds will pick up from the south late Sunday morning. No visibility restrictions are forecast as only SCT-BKN high clouds pass across the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Record highs Monday and Tuesday are 70ish or higher for Hastings and Grand Island and not likely to be broken. Below are the records for December 24, 25 and 26. Record High (Maximum) Temperatures |Current Forecast Grand Island, NE December 24th: 64 in 2021 | Forecast: 60 December 25th: 62 in 1999,1963,1922 | Forecast: 68 December 26th: 64 in 2005 | Forecast: 59 --------------- Hastings, NE December 24th: 66 in 1933 | Forecast: 60 December 25th: 62 in 1999,1950 | Forecast: 68 December 26th: 65 in 2005 | Forecast: 58 _________________________________________________________ Record High (Minimum) Temperatures |Current Forecast Grand Island, NE December 24th: 34 in 1936 | Forecast: 33 December 25th: 34 in 1959 | Forecast: 39 December 26th: 38 in 1931 | Forecast: 35 --------------- Hastings, NE December 24th: 33 in 2005,1955 | Forecast: 33 December 25th: 34 in 1922 | Forecast: 39 December 26th: 38 in 1959 | Forecast: 36 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Moritz AVIATION...Moritz CLIMATE...Moritz
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