Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

997
FXUS63 KOAX 122326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the
  upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- Rain chances remain below 5% through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Quiet and warm across the region early this afternoon as large scale
upper level ridging continued to build into the area. Temperatures
as of 1 PM were in the mid to upper 80s.

The ridge will remain the main weather player for us for the
upcoming week with high temperatures gradually climbing each day.
Expect widespread 90s by Tuesday with mid and upper 90s by Thursday
and Friday when warmer air aloft to our north starts to creep south.
It`s still looking like the main plume of 70+ degree dewpoints will
remain to our east with Gulf moisture being held up to our south.
However, guidance is probably under-doing dewpoints for us,
with corn evapotranspiration likely to play a very large role
through the week. As such, expect dewpoints to steadily remain
in the mid to upper 60s for most, with a few localized 70 degree
readings, especially as you go east. As it stands, expect heat
indices to approach 100 by Wednesday, with a few spots exceeding
that number by Thursday and Friday when the aforementioned
warmer air gets here. Should dewpoints end up higher than
forecast, a few spots may make a run at heat advisory criteria
(30-50% chance), but we`ll see how things trend to start the
week.

This pattern also means next to no rain chances through the week
barring a random pop-up storm or maybe a rogue remnant MCV sliding
through the area. Right now, chances remain below 5% through Friday.
By the weekend, guidance begins to hint at some shortwave energy
rounding the ridge through the Dakotas and possibly pushing a
surface boundary and some precip into our area. Highest chances look
to stay to our north, closer to the wave, but consensus gives us a
15-20% chance by Sunday afternoon/evening. Obviously still a lot of
time between now and then so we`ll see how things trend.

The last thing to mention is fog potential like we`ve seen the last
couple days. Given the clear skies, somewhat light winds, and
somewhat humid airmass, we could see continued patchy fog
development during the morning hours. However, it`s worth noting
that guidance does keep a bit of a surface pressure gradient over us
with the surface high centered to our east. In addition, model
soundings show winds aloft staying up a bit, so any fog development
that we do get would likely be pretty patchy and favored to be in
river valleys and low-lying areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
southeasterly winds in place across much of the area along with
a few areas of shallow clouds at FL045-050. Overnight, winds
will quiet down again but only slightly so, making widespread
fog development less likely than it has been over the last
couple of nights. As of now, the most likely areas of fog
appear to be across far southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and
into northwestern Missouri.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

355
FXUS63 KGID 122320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No rain or storms are currently expected today into next
  weekend.

- Hot all week with the highest heat index values to around 100
  degrees expected by the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

There was a little patchy fog again Sunday morning across
eastern zones, but less fog than Saturday morning. Can not rule
out another morning (Monday morning) of very thin patchy fog
mainly in rural areas near corn fields right around sunrise, but
less impactful than the last few mornings (10-20% chance of
fog).

There has been no noticeable change in the overall forecast
pattern as we continue to expect the impressive 500 mb upper
level ridge to around 600dm to dominate resulting in warming
temperatures with dry conditions. The upper level ridge is
beginning to establish itself over the northern plains today
and then will gradually sink south through the week. This
pattern will make it difficult to even see very many clouds
through the week ahead so expect sunny, hot, and dry weather all
week and probably even into at least a portion of next weekend.

Dewpoints are expected to be a bit lower than normal and thus
heat index values are not as bad as they could be, but do
steadily climb through the week with the heat index around 100
in some areas by Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast to stick around through the period.
Skies will remain mostly clear with the potential for fog lower
than the previous two nights. Though similar wind and sky
conditions may be favorable for at least some patchy areas of
fog overnight, relative humidity values will be expected to be
slightly less than the previous two night (mainly from slightly
warmer overnight temperatures). As result, the window for fog
will be shorter-lived and likely more isolated (best potential
east of the Tri-Cities).

Otherwise, the light winds out of the southeast blowing between
10-15kts should become light to calm overnight with directions
becoming more southerly. Wind speeds will be expected to pick up
some for the Monday afternoon hours with speeds blowing between
10-15kts and gusting as high as 20kts. Directions during the
daytime will return to a southeasterly orientation.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion