Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

499
FXUS63 KOAX 070358
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
958 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing rain/drizzle linger over northeast Nebraska
  through the early morning hours before changing all to snow.
  Most locations see a glaze of ice with minor snow
  accumulations.

- Dry conditions expected for the rest of Saturday and Sunday.
  Highs rebound Sunday to the mid 60s to low 70s.

- Next chance for precipitation returns late Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning (30 to 60% chance)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

A mix of severe and wintry weather is observed across the
forecast area as of 0340z. Convection should continue to push
east northeast here within the next few hours, exiting the bulk
of the forecast area by midnight.

Our attention for the rest of the short term turns to the wintry
weather across northeast Nebraska. Forecast BUFKIT soundings
show low level saturation over much of that area through the
early morning hours in sub freezing temperatures with little to
no ice introduction. RAP vertical cross sections show weak
omega of around -5 ubars in this layer suggests areas of
freezing drizzle/rain developing. Latest METARs in the area
have reported anywhere from a trace to around a tenth of an inch
of ice with this activity. So, expect a few slick spots in
these areas through at least 08z. Eventually, the column cools
enough with some ice introduction observed leading to light
snow. Areas northwest of a line from Neligh to Hartington have
the best potential at seeing at least a tenth of an inch or more
of snow (60-85% chance), while probabilities significantly
taper off with a half inch or more at around 30% along far
northern Knox County. PoPs remain at 30 to 50% across far
northeast Nebraska through at least 10z.

Sfc high pressure is progged to move into the area for the rest
of day Saturday with dry conditions. Highs remain in the upper
40s to low 50s. Southerly flow returns Sunday with highs
rebounding to the mid 60s to low 70s under dry conditions.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Temperatures in the 60s and 70s persist through Monday and
Tuesday with dry conditions. PoPs of 30 to 60% return to the
forecast by late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Highs cool
wednesday to the mid 50s before widespread 60s return to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR ceilings are observed over all terminals late this
afternoon as scattered showers and storms enter the area from
the southwest. Have refined timing of TEMPO group for -TSRA at
KOMA and KLNK to account for latest convective trends. KOFK will
see a period of light freezing rain after 01z before a gradual
transition to light snow. Model guidance suggests IFR/MVFR
ceilings lingering a bit longer so have adjusted departure time
to about 13-14z. VFR conditions prevail by the afternoon hours
for all sites.

Winds will remain gusty from the northwest with gusts of 25 to
30 kts. Winds largely subside by the afternoon to 12 kts or
less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

910
FXUS63 KGID 070506
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1106 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized slick spots are possible due to patchy freezing rain
  this evening. Mainly in areas north of Interstate 80 and east
  of Highway 281.

- The next chance for precipitation (20-30%) arrives Tuesday
  night.

- The remainder of the forecast period (through next Friday)
  will see highs bouncing between the 50s, 60s and 70s. The
  warmest day looks to fall Monday (upper 60s and 70s).

- Near critical fire weather concerns return to southwest
  portions of the area Saturday through Monday afternoon. Winds
  do not appear to be strong enough to provoke critical
  conditions at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main story up front: A few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon for mainly our southeastern portions of the
area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk (level 2
of 5) across a few of our southeastern Nebraska and Kansas counties
(areas southeast of a line from York to Smith Center). Storms across
north central Kansas and mainly areas east of HWY-281 in Nebraska
may develop in 2 waves between 2-9PM. Storms developing earlier on
and along the front (areas mainly within the slight risk area), will
be more likely to become severe. The strongest storms may carry up
to golf ball sized hail and/or produce wind gusts near 60MPH. An
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out along the front (2% SPC Tornado
Risk), though the fast rushing cold air advection behind the front
may keep the threat fairly minimal (mainly only for
Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer counties).

The second wave of elevated storms developing later behind the front
(mainly across Nebraska areas east of HWY-281) will in all
likeliness be less severe in nature, though a few "hailers" can`t be
completely ruled out. In addition to the scattered storms, freezing
rain and sleet on the back end of the system may bring in a quick
wintry mix to a few portions of central Nebraska later this evening
and tonight. Snowfall amounts should remain less than 0.5",
primarily coating some areas north of HWY-6 with a glazing to few
hundredths of an inch of ice and a trace to few tents of an inch of
snow. Despite the light accumulations, slick spots on roadways mixed
with northerly wind gusts of 25-35MPH could cause reduced
visibilities and tricky travel conditions later this evening and
tonight. At this point in time, we do not believe that impacts will
be widespread enough for a Winter Weather Advisory, though we will
keep a close eye for worsening conditions.

What is diving our forecast?: Aloft, we find the area underneath the
difluent region of a Rockies centered trough, forcing rising motion
from mid-level PVA. Pressure falls at the surface completes the
picture with the triple point of a warm front, cold front and
dryline all meeting across north central Kansas this afternoon. The
warm front, east of the area, will continue to move northeast,
increasing instability ahead of the cold front (up to 2,000J of CAPE
across a few southeastern portions of the area). The dryline setting
up across central Kansas has created a tight moisture gradient that
is mixing eastward. These two features will provide the main support
for this afternoon`s severe storm potential across mainly Filmore,
Thayer, Nuckolls, Jewell, Mitchell and Osborne counties. The last
remaining piece of the puzzle has been the cold front that blew
through a majority of the area already today. This influx of cooler
air near the surface will set the stage up for wintry action across
a few locations north of HWY-6 later this evening and tonight.

The forecast beyond tonight is mostly dry with only a minor 20-30%
chance of precipitation returning to the area Tuesday night. The
upper-level pattern is expected to flatten out zonally, limiting the
potential for am amplified trough/ridging pattern. As result, highs
will remain in the 50s for Saturday then quickly warming back up to
the upper 60s and 70s by Monday. Highs thereafter (through next
Friday) are expected to flip-flop between the 50s, 60s and low 70s.
A cutoff low in the southwest will close in on to the
central/southern Plains around mid-week, possibly aiding in the
development of a Central Plains shortwave trough (reason for the 20-
30% PoPs). At this point in time, this event is too far out to be
able to reveal too many more details. The only other forecast note
will be the presence of near-critical fire weather conditions
setting up across a select portion of the area Saturday through
Monday afternoon. Though areas of critical RH values will likely
file into a portion of our southwestern areas each afternoon, at
this point in time, it is uncertain if the winds will be strong
enough to support critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings persist for the next several hours, but are
anticipated to scatter out before sunrise on Saturday.

Winds Saturday start out of the northwest, turning to the west
and southwest through the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion