Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

412
FXUS63 KOAX 042314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of storms are expected through Friday. Severe
  weather is possible with large hail, damaging winds, and flash
  flooding the main concerns. An isolated tornado is also
  possible.

- Daily chances for showers and storms are expected across at
  least some of the area from Saturday through Wednesday as a
  series of disturbances move through the region.

- Expect a return to the 90s Monday through Wednesday as a ridge
  sets up to our northeast. Excessive heat may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An active period of weather begins today. A convectively, reinforced
shortwave is lifting northeast over the central Plains this morning.
A low-level MCV is also evident south of KUEX. These features will
support the re-intensification and development of storms through
this afternoon into this evening. A few stronger storms are already
developing across northern Kansas within the broader MCV. As we move
through the remainder of this morning into the afternoon, daytime
heating into the upper 70s to lower 80s will help destabilize the
environment. While overall shear remains marginal (20-30kts), low-
level SRH will be higher (200 m^2/s^2) and more supportive of
organized storms. A very moist environment has taken shape as well.
These factors will support at least some risk of damaging winds or a
brief tornado or two. Large hail is less likely with a very moist
environment and a high freezing level. The other significant concern
is flash flooding. Precipitable water values are exceeding 1.5"
which is above the 90th percentile for today. This supports
torrential rainfall with rainfall rates easily becoming as high as
1+" per hour. With this concern, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect
for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa into tonight. The one
limiting factor is that once storms develop, the eventual cold pool
should keep storms moving to the east, limiting training potential.
Any showers and storms taper off after midnight as temperatures
slowly cool into the 60s.

Heading into Friday, a lull is anticipated as subsidence and mid-
level height rises behind today`s system keeps a cap on storms
throughout much of the day. It will get hot as a result, with
temperatures easily pushing the upper 80s to near 90. Plentiful
moisture remains in place and this will be a loaded gun by late
afternoon. Very high levels of instability are anticipated with CAPE
values rising to between 3000-4000 j/kg. A weak disturbance moving
into the region and a broader trough over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley helps to erode the cap through evening. An isolated
storm remains possible through the late afternoon, but eventual
storm development appears most likely along a slowly southward
sagging front. Along and behind the front, storms are anticipated.
The high instability and effective shear around 30 kts support a
risk of large hail, perhaps very large, damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado. That said, continued storm development along the front
may eventually limit the severe risk. This then leads to the other
hazard on Friday of flash flooding. Similar to today, very high
precipitable water and slow-moving storms support torrential
rainfall. If storms train along the front, especially across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, this may be especially
concerning. A Flash Flood Watch may be required with this potential.

The pattern quiets down a little this weekend as a trough passes
south of the area. This limits our thunderstorm potential on
Saturday. It will be muggy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s.
Storms return to the forecast on Sunday as a long series of
disturbances moves across the area heading into next week. These
disturbances lift out of the Rockies towards the north Plains as a
summertime pattern takes shape. A building ridge over the central
and eastern CONUS with a trough over the western CONUS supports
warming temperatures and continued storm chances each day.
Widespread 90s are likely by Tuesday before approaching the mid to
upper 90s by the end of next week. Isolated severe weather remains
possible with thunderstorm chances, but the main hazard begins to
shift towards excessive heat as it remains muggy as temperatures
climb.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

MVFR conditions continue at the terminals early in the forecast
period as showers move across the region.

KOFK: Showers have tapered off at the terminal and additional
shower/storm activity is not currently anticipated during the
forecast period. Ceilings will fluxuate between VFR and MVFR
through the overnight hours, returning to VFR by 15Z. Expect
light winds out of the southeast through sunrise, with winds
switching to the east by 14Z.

KOMA: MVFR conditions persist at the terminal through the
evening hours and into tonight. A mention of a few rain showers
was maintained in prevailing conditions through 02Z as an
ongoing line of showers and weak storms extending from Tecumseh
to KCBF continues to move to the northeast. Winds become
southerly around 5-10kts after midnight.

KLNK: MVFR conditions continue at the terminal through around
19Z before improving to VFR. A few showers are beginning to pop
up southwest of the terminal and are moving northeast. As a
result, a mention of vicinity showers is in the forecast for the
next few hours. The overall line of shower/weak thunderstorm
activity will continue to move to the northeast over the next
few hours. Expect southeast winds to become southerly around 06Z
with winds generally 5-10kts after 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for NEZ052-053-066>068-
     088>093.
IA...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

364
FXUS63 KGID 042338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cluster of storms continues to slide northeast through the far
  southeast corner of the forecast area mid-late afternoon.
  There is still the potential for some activity to be strong to
  severe...but once it slides to the east, the rest of this
  evening/overnight looks dry.

- Recent widespread rainfall along with lighter winds will bring
  the potential for at least some patchy fog late tonight-early
  Friday morning, with models currently focusing the best chance
  across our Neb. counties.

- There is the potential for strong-severe storms again on
  Friday afternoon-evening...but there is uncertainty with
  timing and the overall coverage. Recent models have shown more
  of the daytime hours being dry, holding better chances off
  until the evening hours...but even then the coverage may only
  be scattered.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Currently through tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to impact roughly
the southeastern half of the forecast area here during the
early-mid afternoon hours...driven by a MCV working its way
through north central KS. This complex will remain the primary
concern through the rest of this afternoon...moving into an area
what has been under cloud cover most of the day, with temps
only in the low 70s, but dewpoints aren`t far off. Not
surprisingly, low-mid level lapse rates aren`t great, which is
helping keep storms from growing much...even with MLCAPE of
around 1000-1500 j/kg. Deeper layer shear is also not
great...but lower level shear is better, with the SPC Meso page
show 0-1km values around 15-20kts. Being this closer to the
better mid-upper level forcing along with low LCL values,
certainly can`t rule out an isolated brief tornado as this
activity makes its way through and eventually out of the
forecast area. Hi- res models have been consistent today showing
the brunt of this activity clear the forecast area by 00Z,
perhaps some isolated activity hanging on another hour or two
after that...then keep the rest of the overnight hours dry.

A weak surface pattern lingering through the overnight hours
keeps winds on the lighter side...more easterly across our
Nebraska counties, more southern across our Kansas counties.
Main change to the forecast through tonight was to add the
mention of patchy fog thanks to the recent rains combined with
the overall lighter winds...with models focusing the best
chances mainly across our Neb. counties.

Friday...

Models are in good agreement showing generally zonal upper level
flow in place across the region to end the work week...with a
good chunk of the daytime hours potentially dry. If fog does
develop tonight, that could linger into the mid-morning
hours...but shouldn`t stick around much beyond that. Expecting
to see generally partly cloudy skies...with a good jump in high
temperatures, reaching well into the 80s and lower 90s. Main
focus as we get into the afternoon hours will be with the
placement of a sfc frontal boundary...and by early-mid
afternoon, models aren`t in too bad of agreement with its
general location...running SW to NE roughly along a Harlan
County to Merrick County line. This frontal boundary is expected
to be the focus for additional thunderstorm development. Upper
level forcing is lacking...but models show strong instability
developing with dewpoints near 70 nosing into at least eastern
portions of the forecast area, with some showing MLCAPE values
potentially exceeding 3000 j/kg south of that frontal boundary.
Deeper layer shear is also on the lower side, models generally
showing around 25-30kts. If anything over the past few days,
models have trended back on activity through the afternoon
hours...holding activity off into the evening hours, with lift
aided by an increasing low-level jet. Even then, and on into the
overnight hours, models at least at this point show pretty
limited coverage.

This weekend and on...

No notable changes were made to the forecast for this weekend on
into next week...with periodic thunderstorm chances continuing.
Looking at the big picture, there continue to be details that
need ironing out between models. Another large upper level
low/troughing looks to work its way onto the West Coast this
weekend...helping draw a low pressure system northward out of
the Srn Plains. The better chances with this system look to
focus more on Sunday...but there are some broad differences with
model QPF over the forecast area, with some showing the brunt
of forcing and precip potentially sliding just off to our east.
The start of the new work week...main question lies with how
amplified the upper level pattern becomes, and are we more
influenced by ridging trying to build north out of the Srn
Plains or that western CONUS larger scale troughing. Confidence
in precip chances lowers the further out you go in the forecast.
Forecast highs in the 80s-90s...potentially climbing up near
the 100 deg mark by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to IFR conditions possible overnight-early Friday morning
in low stratus and fog. Scattered MVFR stratus becomes BKN
around midnight, with ceilings lowering to low MVFR to IFR
during the early morning hours on Friday. Within this stratus
deck, patchy fog is also possible, though how dense the fog
gets is uncertain. It is plausible that LIFR conditions could
develop as some model guidance indicates the potential for dense
fog (less than 1 mile VIS). The TEMPO group for fog covers the
timeframe where the most widespread/densest fog is
expected/favored. For now, have kept the fog/stratus
mention to IFR but trends will be monitored closely. Fog/stratus
clears during the mid morning hours, with VFR conditions
expected mid-late morning onwards. Southeast winds become light
and variable overnight, with ESE winds during much of the day,
becoming variable Friday afternoon near a frontal passage.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087.
KS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion