Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

662
FXUS63 KOAX 051934
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
134 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms expected late tonight into
  Friday morning (60-90% chance). A few storms may be strong to
  severe with hail the main threat (5% chance).

- Showers and storms expected again for Friday afternoon/evening
  (60-80% chance). Some storms may be strong to severe (15-30%
  chance), mainly east southeast of a line from near Red Cloud
  to Fremont to Onawa.

- Lingering precipitation late Friday night may lead to a
  dusting of snow (40-60% chance) in far northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Today and tonight:

Fog from this morning has lifted to stratus as it tries to clear
out this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the
upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon.

A complex forecast is in store through the next 36 hours with
elevated storms expected to develop this evening into the
overnight hours and a second round of storms expected on Friday
ahead of an advancing cold front. Both rounds of storms have
potential for severe weather.

This evening we see a mid-level trough deepening on the lee-side
of the Rockies over eastern Colorado into western Kansas. This
leads to an increase in southerly flow off the surface bringing
warm air north of the surface warm front. This will lead to a
strong surface inversion with low stratus expanding northward
through the evening hours. As warm air advances aloft we see
steepening lapse rates above around 8000ft generating initially
a modest amount of elevated instability as the first upper-level
shortwave triggers a few storms starting around 7-9pm. As this
line of storms moves east, we`ll continue to see steepening
lapse rates and increasing instability across our southern
counties, with a few storms potentially becoming strong to
severe across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa toward
midnight.

After midnight we`ll see more widespread destabilization above
the boundary layer as the mid-level trough and deepening surface
low shift eastward. This leads to the amplification of
southerly flow into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with the
advancement of the upper-level warm front northward toward the
Platte River. We see a second wave of storm development along
this west-east boundary between 2-4am, in a much more unstable
elevated environment (1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE). While lapse rates
will be steep, wind shear through the unstable layer is
relatively modest as winds are mostly unidirectional with even
some backing in the wind profile. This leads to more of a large
hail and heavy rain threat with these storms. Damaging winds may
be hard to get as they would have to be strong enough to
penetrate the strong surface inversion in place, but can`t be
completely ruled out. These stronger storms will track
northeast, staying north of the advancing surface warm front.
We`ll see rapidly diminishing elevated instability after
daybreak leading to storms trending weaker and mostly clearing
the area by 9am.

Friday:

Once these storms clear, attention turns to the next round of
storms Friday afternoon. With the surface warm front now
oriented across northeast Nebraska into north-central Iowa we
see the southern 2/3rds of our area situated in the warm sector
of the approaching surface low. Models still aren`t in great
agreement on the speed at which the surface low will move in,
leading to differences in how long and how much of our area
remains in the warm sector as storms are forecast to develop
Friday afternoon/evening. While the CAMs are a little faster
with the speed of this system, the GFS brings it in more slowly
leading to a greater portion of our area in the warm sector
through the afternoon as storms initiate. In either case, we
expect initially discrete storms to develop around 2-4pm over
southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa with a line of storms
blowing up along the cold front just west of the discrete cells.
These discrete storms will need to be monitored closely as
though wind profiles don`t show much directional shear, there
will be enough speed shear for a few rotating supercells ahead
of the cold front.

Looking back at our two scenarios, a faster-moving surface low
will mean a faster-moving cold front which will only shorten our
window for seeing these potential supercells. This will limit
the potential for severe weather mainly to far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, near the Missouri state line. A
slower-moving surface low and cold front will keep the warm
sector over more of our area through the afternoon, with storms
developing over a greater portion of our area ahead of the cold
front. This could bring the tornado and large hail threat
farther north, but still more likely confined to areas southeast
of I-80. Storms that develop along the cold front could still
produce large hail and damaging winds, but the larger hail and
tornado threat will be confined to the discrete storms ahead of
the front.

The cold front should clear east of our area by 6-7pm. CAMs show
a second line of storms moving in as the upper-level trough
axis moves through around, but by then the environmental
instability and shear will be much weaker leading to more
garden-variety storms, possibly even just rainfall with no
lightning between 7pm-12am.

Colder air will be moving into northeast Nebraska behind the
cold front with temperatures dropping below freezing after
sunset Friday evening. Meanwhile, wrap-around precip on the
northwest side of the surface low will be tracking northeast out
of central Nebraska, bringing a chance for some light snow over
northeast Nebraska. Moisture will be limited which will lead to
only modest accumulations generally less than an inch between
8pm-12am. Any lingering precip should clear off to the northeast
by 12am.

Saturday and beyond:

Cooler temperatures Saturday morning as post-frontal north
winds drop temperatures into the mid 20s to low 30s across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. We see a mid-level ridge push
through as the upper-level trough shears away, leading to a
return to milder westerly flow Saturday afternoon. This will
allow temperatures to warm back into the low 50s with clearing
skies. Sunday, an advancing upper-level wave over Minnesota will
ramp back up southwesterly flow across our region warming
temperatures back into the 60s to low 70s Sunday afternoon. Warm
temperatures continue through Monday and Tuesday with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Our next chance for precipitation
looks to be Tuesday/early Wednesday as we see a cut-off low get
picked back up into the general flow pattern and pass just to
our south. We mostly get clipped by the northern edge of this
system with best chances for precipitation generally across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Beyond that we may see a
day or two with highs back down in the 50s before temperatures
ramp back up toward upper 60s-70s late in the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

TAFs are a bit lengthy due to a complex scenario expected
overnight tonight into Friday morning. Clearing skies this
morning with increasing high clouds expected through this
afternoon. Winds remain out of the southeast. As we go into this
evening we`ll see low clouds spread northward, initially MVFR
lowering to IFR. Above the low-cloud layer, we`ll see
thunderstorm development starting around 03-04Z with bases
around 8,000-10,000 ft. These storms will likely not be enough
to mix out the low clouds, leaving at least BKN IFR cigs and
potentially 1-2SM vis while thunderstorms impact the terminals
overnight.

The first round of scattered showers and storms will be moving
along a line from west to east from 04-07Z. A second round
develops along a boundary oriented west to east closer to
08-10Z, mainly impacting KOFK and KOMA through around 14Z. All
this continues to be above IFR/LIFR cigs locked in place across
the region. While thunderstorms clear by around 14Z, low cigs
remain, with cigs starting to gradually improve around 16-17Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

356
FXUS63 KGID 052024
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
224 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal threat of severe storms tonight generally
  east of Highway 281.

- Fog is expected again tonight but there are uncertainties as
  to how widespread or dense it will become.

- Severe storms may impact portions of the area Friday afternoon
  and evening.

- Snow may fall Friday afternoon into Friday night. The best
  chance is for areas northwest of the Tri-Cities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with
the leading edge of the trough over the central Plains. A lee
surface trough is across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado.
Breezy south to southeast winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area are
currently in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tonight are expected
to range from the mid 30s to mid 50s. The upper level trough will
move closer to the region tonight with upper lift increasing
overhead. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of
Nebraska and Kansas tonight. Initial thunderstorm development is
expected to be this evening but will mainly be south and east of the
forecast area. Additional development may occur across northern
portions (mainly north of the Tri-Cities) of the forecast area late
tonight. Storms may become strong to severe tonight, especially
south and east of the area with better instability present. Hail up
to the size of quarters is possible tonight mainly east of Highway
281. Fog will again be possible (60% to 70% chance) tonight but is
not expected to be quite as dense or widespread as this morning.

The upper trough will begin to move over the northern and central
Plains on Friday with a cold front pushing into the area. There is
still uncertainty in regards to the timing of this front and amount
of heating in advance of the front. These uncertainties have
resulted in a wide range of possible high temperatures for Friday
across the forecast area. High temperatures across northern portions
may only be in the 40s with southern portions possibly in the 70s.
There is a threat of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening
mainly along and east of Highway 281. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats. Snow is also possible beginning late
Friday afternoon and continuing through Friday night across most of
south central and central Nebraska and portions of north central
Kansas. There is uncertainty as to how much of the area will receive
snow due to uncertainties in how long the precipitation will last
into Friday night as well as how fast temperatures will drop across
the area. There is fairly high confidence (around 70%) that areas
northwest of the Tri-Cities may experience at least a trace of snow.
Generally expect any snow accumulations to be a half inch or less.
Low temperatures in the 20s and low 30s are expected Friday night.

High temperatures Saturday will mainly be in the 50s with a surface
high nearby. Temperatures will be on a warming trend Sunday and
Monday with highs on Sunday in the 60s and 70s and highs on Monday
in the 70s. A cold front is expected around Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week with precipitation possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings and fog are clearing out of the area. There is some
model uncertainty if the low ceilings will come back into the
area this afternoon. Models are in good agreement about low
clouds and possibly low visibilities coming back into the area
this evening. Low clouds are expected to remain through the end
of the period but will improve some after 15z Friday. Winds will
generally remain out of the southeast through this afternoon and most
of the overnight period with some gusts expected this afternoon.
Winds will become northerly by 15z with gusts shortly afterward.
Showers are also possible beginning this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion