Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

794
FXUS63 KOAX 151052
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
452 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is developing in the southern tier of counties
  overnight. Visibility may slip below one mile at times.

- Very High Fire Danger is forecast in northeast Nebraska on
  Sunday, and will span the entire forecast area on Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  with upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, to the 70s by
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120pm CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Instead of the seasonal upper 30s, sunny skies and the drier
than normal soil helped max temperatures push 25-30 degrees
above normal. Widespread 60s were enough to break a record here
in Valley (59/2024). The mild weather will linger through
Tuesday.

Tonight`s primary focus will be on the threat of fog
development, with the greatest threat along the Kansas state
line. An deck of low clouds sits just across the border with
visibility falling just north of it under the clear skies. 00Z
HREF suggests a 40-80% chance of visibility falling below one
mile for areas south of I-80 by sunrise. Fog is not expected in
northeast Nebraska or west-central Iowa. As of 11pm, that fog
has come to fruition and a dense fog advisory has been issued.
There`s probably a greater than 60% chance that it will be
expanded a bit farther north overnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sunday`s temperatures will be just as warm as those managed on
Saturday if not a degree or two warmer. Light and variable
winds overnight will be mostly westerly by noon and will be
coming out of the south by 6pm. RH values will fall to
near 20% in northeast Nebraska. The strongest wind speeds,
bumped higher than the NBM, will thankfully occur in the evening
- after max temps and min RH values. For that reason, we`ll fall shy
  of red flag warning criteria. Still fire danger will be in
  the `very high` category.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

Monday`s temps are a near repeat of the two days prior with even
warmer temps forecast for Tuesday as southerly flow becomes
breezy at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. High temperatures
will range from near 70F along the SD state line to 77 in the
Lincoln area. Records are likely to be set. See the climate
section of this discussion (below). Fire danger will be very
high once again.

.REST OF THE WEEK...

Wednesday`s winds will be strong, too, but this time out of the
north-northwest, pulling in cooler conditions. As the cold front
pushes through, a 25% chance of rain/snow is called for. Highs
may occur early in the day for the northern half of the area
where highs will be relegated to the 50s.

Thursday night / Friday brings the best chance of precipitation
with a deepening negatively tilted trof sweeping northeast
through the central CONUS. Guidance continues to keep highest
PoPs in northern Nebraska where minor snow accumulations (

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

197
FXUS63 KGID 151145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
545 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning, mainly along and south of the
  KS/NE state line.

- Dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures will be the
  rule this afternoon through midweek.

- This will lead to at least a couple rounds of fire weather
  concerns for at least portions of the forecast area - first
  this afternoon over the far W/NW where a Red Flag Warning is
  in place. Another round of dangerous fire weather is becoming
  increasingly likely for Tuesday afternoon.

- Cooler, and potentially more active, weather returns late in
  the week...but confidence on details remains low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 403 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

***Fire weather concerns are detailed below.***

A fairly substantial area of dense fog has developed early this
morning behind departing clouds from yesterday`s system - within
a zone of light and variable winds. These light winds coincide
nicely with where the heaviest rain amounts (0.50-1.00") fell on
Saturday, which is likely contributing to the fog, as well.
Short term models - while struggling with EXACT placement and
coverage - are in decent agreement that fog will steadily burn
off around mid morning given westerly low level flow and full
insolation. Once the fog burns off, there will be nothing to
stop us from warming up well into the 60s for this afternoon -
an excellent way to round out a weekend - in mid-February, no
less! Do NOT think we`ll see a repeat round of fog tonight since
we`ll mix out the shallow low level moisture this afternoon,
though can`t completely rule out some small patches of ground
fog where winds/temperatures will be lowest over W portions of
the forecast area.

Monday will likely be the pick day of the week as the warmth
continues (highs once again in the 60s), but winds weaken to
only 5-10 MPH. Tuesday continues to look like the warmest day of
the forecast/upcoming week with widespread highs in the 70s, and
perhaps even some lower 80s in favored warm spots in our SW.
Official forecast is already calling for easy new record high
temperatures...and these types of setups almost always trend
warmer the day before and/or of. For reference, the latest NBM
75th percentile - which seems quite plausible given warm start
to the day and dry/dormant ground conditions - is a whopping 82
to 87 degrees! If this were to pan out, this would shatter all-
time MONTHLY records for February at both Hastings and Grand
Island - which are "only" 80 degrees. For reference, neither
Hastings or Grand Island have ever reached or exceeded a high
temperature at or above 85 degrees before March 10th! So some
seriously anomalous warmth quite possible - if not likely - for
Tuesday. Highs cool to "only" 60s for Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026


Only a few remaining showers linger across southwest portions of the
area this afternoon (mainly south of HWY-6 and east of HWY-183). The
last of these rain showers will quickly dissipate this evening,
followed by clearing skies across the rest of the night. Residual
moisture with expected light to calm winds overnight may help allow
some some fog to form. The overall best potential for fog will be
concentrated towards portions of the area that received more
meaningful precipitation amounts today (areas south of I-80).
Though a few denser patches of fog may arise (20-30% HREF & 20-50%
REFS chances), it is not certain that coverage will spread enough to
provoke the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

A surface low, situated across the Southern Plains today, will
continue to move east tonight and tomorrow. Higher pressure will
rebound in the low`s wake, turning the surface winds towards the
southeast for Sunday. Aloft, a ridge will start to move in overhead,
bringing some stabilization and drier conditions to the area. Steady
10-20 MPH southwest downsloping winds (adiabatic warming) paired
with clearing skies Sunday (diurnal warming) should allow
temperatures to spread up and into the mid to upper 60s. A handful
of northwestern lying locations can`t be completely ruled out to
break into the low 70s even (10-20% chance).

A few clouds rolling in Monday should not dampen this warming trend
as southerly light warming winds will be expected to maintain along
with deep subsidence aloft from the upper-level riding pattern.
Highs for the week are favored to peak Tuesday (70s) with gusty
southwesterly winds (25-35MPH) cranking up the downslope warming
trend. Fire Weather concerns return to the area Sunday afternoon
with an even stronger potential Tuesday afternoon. A Red Flag
Warning will be in effect for Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Sherman and
Valley counties from noon until 6PM Sunday afternoon. Please refer
to the Fire Weather section for more information.

The next major pattern change up will take place near the middle of
next week as a powering southwest jet launches up into the Central
Plains. This feature will stir up conditions locally as well as
bring a few precipitation chances to the area. The next chance of
precipitation (15-30% chance) resides across our northeastern areas
Tuesday night as a surface low is expected to slice across the
Northern Plains.

A cold front passing sometime Wed/Thur will chop highs back to the
40s to low 50s through the end of the week. For now, we keep our
eyes on the precipitation potential for Thursday into Friday (20-40%
chances) as falling temperatures could reintroduce some snow to
parts of the area. Any additional details regarding snow potential
remains limited as this event is still beyond 5 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Appears that fog will mostly likely remain just S of the
terminals this morning, though will continue to monitor.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with light and variable winds
this morning becoming breezy out of the SSW for this afternoon.
Overnight, should see a steady stream of BKN high clouds and
probably a 4-6 hour window for SWrly low level wind shear at
both terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Combination of mostly sunny skies and dry, westerly downsloping
winds will likely lead to near critical to critical fire weather
conditions for portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Near critical conditions should remain W and NW of the Tri-
Cities...and critical conditions still appear to be on track
for extreme W/NW portions of the forecast area from around
Arapahoe to Lexington to Ord. As such, didn`t make any changes
to the existing Red Flag Warning area or time. These areas are
where RH`s are mostly likely to dip to around 20 percent, and
winds gust 20-25 MPH. Even worse fire weather conditions will
develop just W of the area - from SW Nebraska into the Sandhills.
Overall, generally a marginal side of the "Red Flag Warning
spectrum" for our area this afternoon.

Winds will remain very light on Monday, so no fire weather
concerns are expected at this time.

The most dangerous fire weather day continues to look to be
Tuesday afternoon - as this has the potential to be more of a
"high-end" type of Red Flag Warning day. Tuesday has, and
continues to look like, a more traditional "synoptically
evident" type of day where the region is located on the warm
side of a deepening lee trough that promotes strong, deep, and
efficient mixing within persistent SWrly low to mid level flow.
This will be day 3 of the very warm/dry pattern, so we`ll be
"primed", so to speak, in terms of both fuels and readiness to
quickly warm Tuesday morning. The latest deterministic forecast
calls for peak wind gusts of 30-35 MPH and minimum RH values in
the 15 to 25 percent range. However, probabilistic/ensemble
data suggests gusts could be easily 5-10 MPH (at least for areas
SW of the Tri-Cities) and RHs could be lower if the
aforementioned 75th percentile high temperatures indeed pan out.
Not surprisingly, latest GFDI numbers for our area are in the
"Very High" category (level 3 of 6), and "Extreme" to
"Catastrophic" (levels 5 and 6) categories are only juuuust
W/SW of the area. Bottom line...all parties with interests in
fire suppression need to keep a close eye on forecast trends,
and potential fire weather headlines, for Tuesday afternoon into
early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for NEZ082>087.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     NEZ039-046-060-072-082.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion