Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

452
FXUS63 KOAX 221856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
156 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (12-14%) for some sprinkles in northeast
  Nebraska this afternoon. Most locations stay dry with highs in
  the low to mid 70s.

- Chance for showers and storms early Tuesday morning (60-80%)
  and again in the late morning and afternoon hours (30-50%).
  Considerable uncertainty exists regarding if storms may become
  strong to severe.

- Continued chances for showers and storms Wednesday through
  Friday (15-30%). A gradual warming trend takes shape for the
  weekend with more chances for storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis at H5 features two prominent disturbances
tracking along the US/Canada border while the Northern Plains
remains influenced by primarily weak zonal to northwesterly flow. At
the sfc, a channel of high pressure extends from Manitoba/western
Ontario southward into much of the Northern Plains.

The sfc high will lead to rather pleasant conditions today with most
locations reaching highs of low to mid 70s under some cumulus
clouds. Winds remain light and from the east southeast. Some weak H8
warm air advection on the backside of the high could lead to a few
scattered sprinkles in far northeast Nebraska. Chances don`t look
great though at around 12-14%, so largely expecting the dry weather
to prevail. For tonight, lows cool to the mid to upper 50s.

By early Tuesday morning, the H5 low over western Saskatchewan will
track eastward toward North Dakota. H8 warm advection just ahead of
the main sfc cold front should result in broad lift helping generate
some scattered showers and storms over South Dakota. CAMs depict
this activity tracking southeast, somewhat weakening as it
enters northeast Nebraska. 0-6 km bulk shear appears abundant,
but the main instability axis should be located just to the west
of OAX. Forecast soundings show very little instability rooted
aloft along our far western edge during the early morning hours.
If a storm were able to strengthen, the main threat it`d have
would likely be large hail. Considerable spread is still seen in
regards to the location of where convection may develop and how
strong it will be. PoPs remain at 60 to 80%, over northeast
Nebraska, peaking around 14z.

By the late morning and afternoon hours, guidance shows the
instability plume of 500 to 1,000 j/kg inching toward our far west
and southwest portions of the CWA while the strong shear remains in
place. While this scenario seems favorable for severe weather, lots
of uncertainty exists. Some guidance like the HRRR reintensifies the
lingering convection over our far western areas in the afternoon,
eventually morphing into an MCS (with the threat becoming primarily
damaging winds) that exits our area in the late afternoon hours.
However, other CAMs like the HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF suggest
convection igniting along the main sfc cold front by the late
afternoon and early evening hours, eventually congealing into an MCS
and tracking toward the south. Guidance like the NAM 4km Nest and
FV3 seem to show just widely scattered showers and storms along the
front. In other words, confidence on how this convection will evolve
remains extremely low. At this time, the SPC has maintained the
categorical Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe weather risk for portions
of eastern Nebraska. PoPs remain anywhere from 30 to 50% for the
bulk of the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs
warm to the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Wednesday through Friday will see continued zonal to northwesterly
flow at H5 helping bring continued weak waves into the region. This
will lead to at least some threat for showers and storms across the
forecast area during those days. NBM extended has PoPs of 15 to 30%
areawide with this forecast update.

Expanding 1000-500mb thicknesses arrive by the weekend and should
result in temperatures increasing to the mid to upper 80s Saturday,
and low 90s for Sunday. Global models are in good agreement of a
longwave trof developing over the western CONUS during the weekend,
resulting in increased southwest flow. Lee cyclogenesis ensues with
the feature tracking somewhere across the Plains. While still
several days out, the various machine learning algorithms continue
to suggest some threat for strong to severe storms during this
period. At this time, NBM PoPs remain at 15 to 30% with the highest
chances over far eastern Nebraska into Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Scattered to broken cumulus clouds ranging from 2,500 to 5,000
feet are observed across TAF sites this afternoon. Brief drops
to MVFR may occur at terminals within the next two to three
hours, but should see ceilings rise to VFR by the late
afternoon. Will see showers and a few storms develop late in the
TAF period at KOFK and KLNK, with some uncertainty on how far
east this activity may reach. Have introduced -SHRA mentions
into TAF for this issuance at those respective terminals, but
expect further refinements and adjustments with future
issuances.

Winds remain under 12 kts for the duration of the TAF period
from the southeast, turning southerly after 16z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

899
FXUS63 KGID 221731
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may continue to develop across mainly western and
  northern portions of the area overnight into Monday morning.

- Light rain showers may develop and move across primarily
  western and northern portions of the area overnight into
  Monday morning.

- Isolated thunderstorms may move across northwestern portions
  of the area this evening into tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area
  Tuesday morning and afternoon. Some of these storms may be
  strong to marginally severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Rain showers are moving southeast across northern Nebraska and
severe storms are across southern Kansas and northern/central
Oklahoma. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are light out of mostly the east. Temperatures across
the area are in the 50s and 60s. Some light rain showers may move
across northern and western portions of the forecast area overnight
(primarily north of I-80 and west of Highway 281). Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be in the 50s. Some of the overnight
showers may linger into the morning hours past sunrise. Some patchy
fog has already started to develop and may continue into the morning
hours across mainly western and northern portions of the area.
Widespread dense fog is not expected at this time but will continue
to monitor. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this
afternoon with winds becoming southeasterly. High temperatures today
will mostly be in the 70s. An isolated thunderstorm or two may move
across northwestern portions of the area this evening into tonight
(primarily along and north and west of the Tri-Cities area). Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and low 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase and move in from
the north/northwest Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as a
shortwave moves overhead and a cold front approaches. Some of these
storms have the potential to become strong to marginally severe with
the risk increasing to the southwest. Hail up to quarter size and
wind gusts up to 60 MPH would be the main threats with these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight...

Following yesterday and last night`s scattered storms, a band of low-
level stratus continues to blanket a majority of the area. This
cloud coverage has helped keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for
today. The main concern of the day will be from the presence of a
mid-to-upper level shortwave disturbance that looms just northwest
of the area. Though some question remains on how the excessive cloud
coverage today may impact the instability, modeled soundings still
continue to show an elongated profile of weak instability through
much of the low-to-mid levels from the presence of steady lapse
rates holding between 6-7C/km (contributing to 750-2,000J/kg of
MUCAPE). In addition, a deep moist layer with 30-50kts of bulk shear
this afternoon completes the base checklist needed for storms. The
main detractor that may storms from reaching severe criteria would
be from the presence of low-level convective inhibition (stable
air) that storms would need to overcome.

Though activity may not be too widespread this afternoon/evening, a
strong to marginally severe storm could still be feasible to break
into the area from the west/northwest. A few storms, some of which
severe, have already erupted this afternoon out across western
Nebraska. These storms across the next several hours will march
southeast and down into possibly a few western portions of the area.
The main uncertainty will be how long lasting those storms will
remain severe as they march towards a slightly less favorable
environment (some question to how the cloud coverage earlier today
may of inhibited the storm environment). As result, the main severe
threat will be more concentrated closer to the west/southwest
portions of the area between the 5-10PM window. The primary storm
hazards from these storms will be hail up to the size of ping pong
balls with gusty winds near 60MPH. Though an isolated tornado could
be feasible, generally the threat remains low given the fact that
storms are expected to be on the downward trend as they arrive from
the west.

In addition to the severe storms racing in from the Nebraska
sandhills this evening, a mesolow moving down into northern Nebraska
tonight may offer up a few more weaker thunderstorms and showers.
These storms will drop down into a few northern portions of the area
overnight (mainly into a few places north of I-80). The mesolow will
gradually drift east through the morning hours on Monday, collecting
any last last remaining storm with it.


Monday and Tuesday...

Pressure rises Monday from the exit of the shortwave disturbance will
help snuff out most precipitation chances for Monday, although a
spotty or isolated shower/storm coming in from the northwest can`t
be totally ruled out. Besides the low precipitation chance, highs
will remain fairly similar from today (70s), although a few spots in
north central Kansas could overachieve expectations and reach the
low 80s. Winds will be expected to remain light (5-15MPH) under the
influence of higher pressure with wind directions out of the
southeast.

The potential for severe weather could return Tuesday as another
shortwave trough sneaks into the greater Northern Plains region.
Several medium to long range models including the NAM, ECMWF and GFS
are starting to narrow down on the conclusion for a later morning to
early afternoon MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developing along a
southeastward passing cold front. The current projection of this
system has been mainly confined to initialize somewhere across
northwest to north central Nebraska area, moving towards the
southeast through the rest of the day. Though CAPE may be somewhat
limited across the early portions of the day (500-2,000J of MUCAPE
possible), 40-55kts of bulk shear with dewpoints in the 60s (from
the influence of the south to southeasterly surface winds), may be
supportive enough for storms to develop strong to severe criteria
(>1" hail or >58MPH wind gusts).

The SPC has included the full area in a marginal (level 1 of 5)
severe weather outlook for Tuesday with a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
clipping mainly Rooks county in our north central Kansas forecast
area. The main uncertainty at this point in time is knowing
where/when the thunderstorms fire Tuesday. Depending on the speed of
the front and the time of day that storms initialize, the severe
risk could change. Otherwise, highs are expected to remain in the
70s to low 80s as some sort of cloud coverage is possible to remain
around a majority of the area (keeping the potential for widespread
coverage of 80+ degree temperatures low).


Wednesday and Beyond...

The potential for a pop up or scattered thunderstorm/showers returns
almost every day in the long-range forecast, although the best
potential lies Wednesday night (30-60% chances) and Thursday night
(40-60% chances). This seamanly wet period comes as an upper-level
low across southwest Canada interacts with a southwest U.S. ridge.
Numerous break/disturbance will break out of the upper-level flow,
keeping the area underneath sporadic storm activity. Widening
forecast confidence past Tuesday keeps detail limited for now for
any specific individual day.

As far as temperatures go, the general trend is for highs to climb
again, potentially reaching the 90s in a few areas by the end of the
week. It is uncertain how the upper-level flow will break out of its
more unstable pattern, though long-range ensemble forecasts tend to
favor the exit of the low pressure over Canada around the middle of
the week. This would leave some space for the southwest U.S. ridge
build, potentially influencing a end of week warm up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Satellite imagery showing patches of at times MVFR clouds spread
across much of the area, keeping the potential for marginally-
MVFR ceilings around at least a couple more hours this afternoon at
both terminal sites...otherwise the rest of the period is
currently VFR. TAF is dry through much of the period, with
increasing chances as we get closer to sunrise Tuesday on
through the end of this period...still quite a bit of
uncertainty with models with how storm coverage ends up
evolving, so kept mention as a PROB30 group. This activity could
end up bringing lower ceilings...will see how models trend for
upcoming forecasts. Winds through the period look to remain
generally southeasterly and on the lighter side, topping out
around 10-15 MPH...with the potential for gusty, more variable
winds with any storms that do happen to impact the terminals,
kept that confined to the PROB30 group.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion