Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

089
FXUS63 KOAX 260519
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1219 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong storms continue overnight in northeast
  Nebraska. Most will remain below severe criteria.

- Above-average temperatures continue through Thursday, with
  highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Precipitation chances for the second half of the work week and
  the weekend have been falling.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The upper pattern, as revealed by guidance and water vapor
imagery, reveals a cut-off low driving down the West Coast as a
contracted ridge back-builds over the High Plains. The KOAX
radar waves are reflected back to Valley, NE by some
strong/severe thunderstorms in far northeast Nebraska. These
storms are expected to push out of the area by sunrise as the
storms continue northeast.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....

High temps remain about ten degrees above normal for both
Tuesday and Wednesday as mid-level ridging continues to expand
northwest into the Canadian Prairies. Each day`s skies should be
averaging less than four oktas of cloud cover. (It`ll be partly
sunny.) Precip chances for both days have slipped over the
course of the weekend from "scattered" to below 10%.

.THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

Precip chances were expected to be highest on Thursday, but are
falling consistently from model run to model run. With the cut-
off low beginning to kick- out from the West Coast and a
boundary developing just south of there, likely PoPs are
expected in central Nebraska and eastern Kansas, but only
isolated (10-15%) PoPs are expected in OAX`s southern tier of
counties. Unfortunately, that drier trend holds true for Friday
and the weekend proper, too. Earlier forecasts calling for
50-70% PoPs are long gone. Over the past 24 hours, NBM PoPs at
Omaha for Thursday have slipped from 50% to less than 10%. Now
PoPs hit their zenith on Friday afternoon at 15-25% for areas
southwest of Omaha.

Best chance of precip remain west and south of the area over the
course of Saturday and Sunday, too. The cut-off low out west
will weaken and eject northeast.

With the flooding threat now negligible, we turn our attention
to a severe weather threat. The SPC does not currently have the
area highlighted with any convective concerns over the course of
the next 8 days while machine-learning forecasts from NCAR and
CSU corroborate.

High temps will be slipping over this period from mid-80s on
Thursday to lower-80s for Saturday and Sunday.

Longer range forecasts suggest the beginning of June 2026 will
be warmer than normal as ridging builds back across the central
CONUS. The latest CPC outlook suggests the Omaha metro has a 54%
chance that June 2-8 will end up warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this morning and
will persist through the remainder of the TAF cycle. A line of
showers and thunderstorms have developed just west southwest of
the KOFK terminal. Some thunderstorms may approach the
terminal, but thinking that the bulk of the activity will stay
away. Thereafter, could see some LLWS until 12z.

Southerly winds will remain under 12 kts until mid afternoon
when gustiness of 20-25 kts returns at KOFK and KLNK, largely
subsiding after 00z. Lighter winds at 12 kts or less are
expected for much of the TAF period at KOMA. Expect some mid to
high based clouds throughout the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

202
FXUS63 KGID 260010
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
710 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...Key Messages and Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a small (20-30%) chance that a few thunderstorms
  could sneak into mainly a few of our far northern/western
  Nebraska counties this evening (mainly
  Valley/Greeley/Sherman/Dawson). IF this were to occur, a
  spotty strong to perhaps marginally-severe storm could occur
  (main threat 50-60 MPH winds).

- Dry on Tuesday with highs in the 80s and breezy southerly winds.

- Scattered, low confidence chances for precipitation Wednesday
 PM through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers/storms
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

It`s a warm afternoon with most areas currently experiencing
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Southerly winds are breezy,
gusting 20-30mph. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible
during the late afternoon-evening hours along the surface trough
in west/central Nebraska. Weak forcing combined with poor shear
(20kts) should limit the potential strength of these storms
despite CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg. Still, a strong to marginally
severe storm (60mph winds, small hail) could develop and impact
areas mainly northwest of the Tri-Cities this evening. Storms
will steadily weaken/dissipate after sunset as stability
increases. Lows in the 50s are expected overnight with partly
cloudy skies.

Tuesday...

Aloft, ridging gradually builds over the area on Tuesday as a
trough/low moves into the west coast and becomes cutoff. Under the
influence of ridging, highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. Another
breezy day is expected, with southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Dry
weather is forecast for Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper level pattern transitions to a messy omega blocking
pattern (trough over west/east coasts, ridge over central U.S.)
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s,
warmest across northern portions of the area. The first wave of
energy moves into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, bringing the
first of potentially several rounds of low confidence, scattered
PoPs to the area. Models have at least some agreement that the first
round of Pops (15-65%) lift into southwestern portions of the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening and continues into
the overnight hours. Models vary how far north/east PoPs make
it, but southwestern portions of have the overall highest
chances. Wednesday night`s band of showers/storms looks to stall
out on Thursday, though model spread varies on where this sets
up. At least a portion of the area could see scattered showers
and storms persisting throughout the day. Highs on Thursday will
depend on storms/cloud coverage, ranging from the 70s in rain
to the 80s in dry/sunny locations.

Friday Onwards...

Beyond the overall atmospheric pattern/setup (Omega block persists),
confidence remains low in the finer details, especially regarding
PoPs. Still, models support/indicate that multiple disturbances are
favored to move into the area throughout this time period. Model
spread results in broad 25-45% PoPs across the area Friday onwards.
As we get closer in time, the timing and location of these chances
will become clearer. Highs will generally be near to above normal,
in the 70s and 80s, though more/less rain may result in slightly
cooler/warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout
the period (only limited mid-high level clouds mainly at/above
10K ft. AGL). As for any rain/thunderstorm chances, it is
becoming increasingly apparent that any spotty
showers/thunderstorms this evening should remain at least 30
miles north/west of KEAR and at least 50 miles north/west of
KGRI, and thus will continue to omit any formal inclusion from
TAFs.

Thus, as has been the case for a few days now, winds are the
main aviation issue, including rather breezy surface winds
(especially both early/late in the period), and also slightly-
strong low level wind shear (LLWS) later this evening into early
Tuesday AM.

- Surface winds:
Direction-wise, no major swings should occur, but there will be
a shift from southerly through these first 18 hours...then to
more southeasterly late in the period on Tuesday afternoon. As
for speeds, the overall-strongest speeds will occur both early
in the period (mainly through 04-05Z)...and then late in the
period (mainly 18-00Z). During these times, sustained speeds
commonly 15-20KT/gusts 25+KT (possibly nearing 30KT Tuesday
afternoon especially at KEAR). Meanwhile, in between those
times, a relative lull in speeds will be centered mainly
06-14Z...with sustained speeds only around 10KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Although not as intense or as long-lasting as last night`s round
of LLWS was, another round of slightly-strong LLWS will develop
overnight and have slightly adjusted the "windows of
opportunity" to 05-10Z KGRI/04-09Z KEAR. During this time, winds
within the lowest 1,500 ft. AGL will accelerate to
40+KT...creating roughly 30KT of LLWS magnitude. In order to add
a bit more directional detail to the veering low level wind
maximum have added a second LLWS group to latest TAFs (the
latter starting 07Z KEAR/08Z KGRI)...reflecting a shift from a
more southerly to a more southwesterly direction.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion