Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

063
FXUS63 KOAX 071735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
  remainder of the afternoon, with brief downpours, lightning,
  and funnel cloud or two all possible.

- Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the
  week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that
  could thwart extreme heat.

- Heat could be disrupted by stronger storms that will try to
  develop and move through the area Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today and Tonight:

GOES satellite imagery this afternoon shows textured landscape of
clouds draped across the Central and Northern Plains, spurred on by
a weak cutoff low and it`s associated height falls general
convergence across the area. Zooming out a bit further, longwave
troughing continues across the Pacific Northwest with a cold front
continuing to exist up and down the Northern High Plains. Sounding
profiles and SPC objective fields locally depict a generally
uncapped environment, with pockets of deeper convection pulsing up
and down therein while the potential/duration of any storm is
limited by weak effective shear. SPC mesoanalysis also shows
some increased values of non-supercell tornado parameter due to
the ambient vorticity, sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates,
and overall stretching potential of that vorticity. No
tornadoes are expected to occur, but we do anticipate reports of
funnels underneath some of the strengthening pulse convection
over the course of the afternoon. Aside from the spurious
convection, lighter rain is also expected to occur in a more
widespread nature before they dissipate/shift off to the
northeast along with the mid/upper closed low. Temperatures will
only warm slightly to their peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
making it a low point from which we will jump forward into a
hotter forecast for the remainder of the week. Skies overnight
will trend clearer as subsidence sets in behind the low, with
the back edge of the clouds trying to usher in areas of fog,
primarily across central and eastern Nebraska into Monday
morning.

Monday through Wednesday:

The forecast hits a bit of a turning point Monday, as the mid/upper
jet streak near the High Plains advances farther east -- not
necessarily to induce weather directly over the area, but moreso to
develop showers and storms to the west that move into the forecast
area. As for Monday in particular, the aforementioned frontal
boundary front the High Plains the day previous will push into north-
central Nebraska into central South Dakota. The southern reaches of
the front will bend farther to the south and west, connecting to a
local surface low near the NE/KS/CO border. CAMs are generally on
board with developing convection closer to the surface low and
where the greatest instability will lie Monday afternoon, but
they do also hint at storms trying to fire along the front in
northeast Nebraska after 6 PM, but with sufficient, but less
instability and effective shear. Those storms serve as the
initial severe threat for the evening, with an eventual MCS
trying to push into the area late/overnight Monday that would
bring 50-60 mph winds through after midnight.

Aside from the storms, heat will also be of importance to the
forecast, where areas to the southeast of the incoming cold front
are forecast to hit high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Similar temperatures are forecast going through the middle of the
work week, seeing a potential bump into the mid-to-upper 90s and
near 100 degrees in far northeast Nebraska. The continuation of
any heat will be conditional to potential storm and shower
activity that is forecast through the week. We`re not expecting
a washout by any means, but a poorly-timed MCS that powers
through the area would kill high temperatures for the day,
leaving us a bit cautious with regards to issuing any heat
headlines. The current forecast does carry areas of "major" heat
risk Tuesday and Wednesday, before reducing to "moderate/minor"
again Thursday onward.

Storm chances also continue to be of concern with the mid/upper
features nudging a bit closer to the area Tuesday, and
through/to the east of area Wednesday. Confidence in
location/timing with these storm chances remain low, as the
Monday evening/overnight convection will play a large role in
defining what areas are allowed to recover, while outflows
remain and serve as focal points for the next day`s convection.
With the abundance of instability and increasing mid/upper flow,
severe storms are on the board both days.

Thursday and Beyond:

Temperatures trend downwards Thursday through Saturday, as the base
of the upper trough continues its push east of the area while the
remaining mid/upper flow flattens. Shortwaves continue to move
through the flow though this period, keeping low-end chances for
rain in the forecast, but most will be thankful for the cooldown
incoming back to the low-to-mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are in place this afternoon with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dotting the radar
screen. These showers and storms are expected to last through
the next 2-3 hours, with the western edge clearing KLNK first
before shifting even farther east to avoid KOMA after 21z.
Southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon with occasional gusts near 20 kts, while MVFR
ceilings become increasingly hard to come by as we head into the
evening. Overnight, winds will quiet down, clouds will try and
clear until some fog/low stratus formation occurs after 06z. Fog
chances are highest near KOFK into central Nebraska, with KLNK
closer to the eastern edge of it. Any fog or lower ceilings
(IFR or lower) should dissipate by 14z tomorrow morning,
returning VFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

646
FXUS63 KGID 072051
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy precipitation from Friday night`s storms has continued
  to leave a few areas of slow moving or standing water across
  portions of Hamilton, York and far northern Fillmore counties.
  For more information, please refer to the Areal Flood Warning
  statement or the hydrology section below.

- A few areas of fog will be possible to form late tonight into
  Monday morning.

- A few severe storms may be possible across portions of the
  area primarily Monday as well as Tuesday afternoon/night.
  Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary severe
  threats.

- Temperatures will near the 90s to low 100s Tuesday afternoon
  with heat indices as high as 105 degrees. A cold front passage
  on Wednesday should steer highs more towards the 80s to lower
  90s for the rest of the week.

- Scattered storm chances return to the forecast mainly
  Wednesday night (15-40% chance), Friday night (15-30% chance)
  and Saturday (20- 35% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026


Short Term...Tonight and Monday

Though a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms across our
eastern Nebraska locations remain possible through this evening (10-
25% chance east of HWY-281), most areas across the region are likely
to remain dry overnight. The potential for fog may also be possible
tonight given clearing skies and lightening southeast winds. If fog
does develop, a few patches of dense fog may have to be monitored to
see if coverage becomes widespread enough for a dense fog advisory.
The main concern in the short-term period, however, will be in
regards to the potential for severe convection Monday afternoon to
mainly Monday night from the presence of a passing cold front.

Synoptically-speaking, a shortwave trough sliding up through the
Midwest today will make space for the eastward expansion of a
longwave North Pacific U.S. trough. This feature is expected to
become the prominent driving force for the mid-to-upper level
pattern this week, influencing the areas` precipitation chances.

As far as Monday goes, weaker yet steady southeasterly winds at the
surface, will help advect in more moisture (mid 60s to lower 70s
dewpoints). In addition, though there is still some uncertainty
with how expansive cloud coverage will become, temperatures are
expected to inch a few degrees higher than today (highs nearing the
upper 80s to low 90s). This warmer and slightly more moist airmass
will increase atmospheric instability, likely inflating CAPE values
up to between 2,500-4,000J/kg (mid to higher end values for rapid
thunderstorm growth). In addition, modest shear (25-35kts of bulk
shear) with supportive low-to-mid level lapse rates (7-9 C/km)
appear to set the stage for severe weather anywhere storms fire. As
result of the supportive environment, a Marginal SPC severe weather
outlook is in effect across the full area for Monday.

So, what is the catch? Like with all forecasts, there is still some
uncertainties that could change the way that the event plays out.
As of now, the collection of models continue to sort into two
leading scenarios. The first concern regards the forcing mechanism.
The absence of notable mid-level vorticity advection from an
approaching trough/PV anomaly, leaves us to believe that any
convection that forms for Monday will be locally forced rather than
from synoptic assent. In other words, the development of thunderstorms
will likely be tied to the passage of the passing cold front.

The main contributor to the uncertainty for Monday is with the
timing of this frontal passage. The main divergence between the
HRRR/GFS and NAMNEST/NAM/ECMWF models today is with the
timing/location of this front. The HRRR/GFS models are currently
suggesting more aggressive convection in the evening to overnight
hours with the front passing through later in the day. A later
passage of the front would allow more time for the environment to
destabilize (additionally taking advantage of the nocturnal LLJ). If
this scenario actualizes, a MCS may be favored to race through much of
our area (at least 50%, the best potential north of the state line).
The main concerns would be strong straight line wind gusts up to
70MPH with large hail or an isolated tornado possible.

The other case, however, would still support the potential for
severe weather, though storm activity may be more dispersed through
the day and more spotty in coverage compared to widespread. The
NAM/NAMNEST/ECMWF models have been a little faster at advancing the
front, potentially seeing storm activity initialize earlier in the
day before the instability is maximized. Though severe weather will
still be possible and earlier in the day, activity may not be as
widespread as if the activity occurred later in the evening/nighttime.

As it stands, there is two main scenarios that could play out that
could effect when storms develop and how widespread impacts may
become. Either way, the environment looks to be supportive for severe
weather across at least a portion of the area Monday afternoon to
night.


Long Term...Tuesday and Beyond

Following the potential for severe weather on Monday, a more
limited coverage of severe storms may follow on Tuesday (20-30%
chance). Given warming temperatures, continued afternoon
instability and slightly increases shear from the approach of the
Northwest U.S. trough, the potential for severe weather will remain
possible for Tuesday. The main concern at this time will be if
Monday nights` storms affect Tuesdy`s environment, potentially
limiting instability from any lingering morning showers.

Besides the returning storm chances, temperatures look to continue
to be on track to near and reach the low triple digits across a few
north central Kansas and far southwest Nebraska locations. The rest
of the area will likely see highs in the mid-to-upper 90s Tuesday.
These warmer temperatures will mainly be assisted by steady
southerly warm air advecting winds blowing between 15-20MPH and
gusting as high as 30-35MPH. Heat indices will likely reach the
upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the full area. As result,
a Moderate to Major heat risk classification (levels 2 & 3 out of 4)
will be in place across the area. It is suggested that any
individual who may be more susceptible to the heat to have an
effective source for cooling/hydration. The only factor that could
prevent temperatures from reaching this high would be if cloud
coverage becomes more widespread or showers/storms Tuesday morning
overstay their welcome.

A secondary/reinforcing cold front passing through the area Wednesday
will likely keep the warmup from lasting past Wednesday as
temperatures Thursday through the end of the week should not surpass
the 80s to low 90s. A few more additional chances for storms lie in
the extended period overnight Wednesday (15-40% chances), Friday
night (15-30%) and Saturday (20-35% chances). Given limited
uncertainty in how the upper-level pattern will unfold the second
half of the week (progression and timing of the upper-level trough),
limited details are currently known on the intensity, timing and
coverage of these potential storms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions recently returning to both sites will last until
around 9z when fog potentially works its way into the area.
Between 9-14z, visibility reductions will be possible. The
worst visibilities (as low as 1/2 to 2 miles) may be possible
between 10-13z. Though there is no mention of -TSRA in the
current TAF, a limited 20% chance lies in the forecast Monday
morning (increasing potential later in the day).

Winds today will remain out of the south-southeast blowing
between 10-15kts through the afternoon hours. Light winds,
becoming variable late tonight, will likely lead into Monday
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Heavy precipitation from Friday night`s storms has continued to be
slow to filter out of a few portions of Hamilton, York and far
northern Fillmore counties as of this afternoon. Several
rivers/creeks remain nearly full to just overflowing their banks,
leaving a few area of slow moving or standing water. Flooding across
a few of these areas may continue to persist through tonight and
possibly into Monday morning. As result, an Areal Flood Warning
remains in effect for portions of the area mentioned above.

The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight
include: West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham)
Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County) Lincoln Creek (Hamilton
and York Counties).

Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be
isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump
HYDROLOGY...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion