Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

122
FXUS63 KOAX 120532
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected Thursday, leading
  to dangerous wildfire conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be
  in effect from noon to 9 PM.

- Winds will shift and increase behind a cold front Thursday
  evening, with northwesterly gusts of 50-60 mph possible. A
  High Wind Warnings has been issued for northeast Nebraska and
  west-central Iowa.

- Another round of strong winds and wintry weather (60-80%
  PoPs) is expected to impact the region Saturday night into
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Thursday and Friday...

A deepening surface low tracking along the US/Canada border will
bring a warm, dry, and windy day to the area Thursday. Southwesterly
winds will increase through the morning, with afternoon gusts
expected to reach 40-45 mph. Strong low-level flow and efficient
mixing will support much warmer temperatures, with highs climbing
into the 60s to low 70s. Relative humidity values will drop into the
15-25% range, resulting in extreme fire danger across much of the
area. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon through 9 PM
Thursday. Increasing mid- to high-level cloud cover during the
afternoon may slightly limit mixing, particularly across northeast
Nebraska, which could briefly temper afternoon winds. Regardless,
fire weather concerns will remain very high to extreme.

A cold front will sweep through Thursday evening, veering winds from
southwesterly to northwesterly and ushering in strong CAA behind the
boundary. A several-hour period of gusts up to the 50-60 mph
range appears likely with HRRR/RAP model soundings bringing
55-70 kts to the top of the mixed layer. The strongest winds
are expected across northeast Nebraska, where some potential
exists for gusts to exceed 60 mph (30% probability per the
HREF). The primary uncertainty at this time is how far south
these stronger gusts will extend. Given this potential, a High
Wind Warning has been issued for Thursday evening across
northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa, with a High Wind
Watch in effect along the I-80 corridor where confidence in
warning-level gusts is lower.

Winds will gradually diminish through the Friday morning as surface
high pressure build into the region. The post-frontal airmass will
bring cooler conditions, with highs generally in the 40s and 50s.
Light PoPs (30-40%) return to northeast Nebraska Friday evening as
brief disturbance slides across the northern Plains. Moisture is
rather limited with the passage, with a 20-40% probability of
half an inch of snow across northeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Sunday...

This weekend, an amplifying mid-level trough moving across the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will bring the next chance
for widespread precipitation to the region. Southeasterly low-level
flow ahead of the system will support mild temperatures Saturday,
with highs reaching the 50s across northeast NE and the 60s
across southeast NE. Precipitation chances increase late
Saturday as an associated surface low tracks across the region.
PoPs currently peak around 60-80% Saturday night into early
Sunday before gradually tapering off through Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation type remain somewhat uncertain. Precipitation will
likely begin as rain before transitioning to a rain/snow mix
overnight and eventually changing to all snow, at least across
northeast Nebraska, by Sunday morning. Ensemble guidance from both
the GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS remains consistent in focusing the highest
snow probabilities across northeast Nebraska, with probabilities
decreasing southward. The EPS/EPS-AIFS suggests a 50-70% probability
of at least 3 inches of snow across northeast Nebraska, while the
GEFS indicates probabilities in the 30-50% range.

Gusty winds will also be a concern, particularly on Sunday as a
tight pressure gradient develops on the backside of the departing
surface low. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance indicates an 70-90%
probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph and 20-40%
probability of gusts reaching 58 mph. Blowing snow could become
a concern, although the strongest winds currently appear likely
to remain south of the corridor with the highest snowfall
probabilities just after snowfall exits the region. Regardless,
this system will be one to monitor, especially for those with
travel plans this weekend.

Monday and Beyond...

Persistent northwesterly flow aloft will keep Monday`s highs
generally confined to the 20s and 30s. The cooler conditions
will be short- lived, however, as broad ridging begins to nose
into the region by midweek. This will allow temperatures to
rebound into the 40s and 50s Tuesday, with highs potentially
reaching the 60s and 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

The warmer pattern is expected to persist, as both the CPC 6-10 day
and 8-14 day outlooks continue to favor above-normal temperatures
across the region, with probabilities in the 60-80% range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
quiet winds through 12-14z, before speeds start ramping up out
of the southwest tomorrow morning. From 12-14z onward, gusts
will quickly increase to 30-37 kts heading into the afternoon
while mid/high clouds from the north clip the area. Those gust
speeds will decrease slightly between 22-02z tomorrow evening,
with a shift to northwesterly winds sends those speeds even
higher than the afternoon gusts. Tomorrow night, gust speeds in
the 40-50 kt range look likely at times, with the highest
speeds across northeast Nebraska. At FL018, sustained wind
speeds will be close to 60 kts, causing turbulence from low-
level wind shear at all sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Friday
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     NEZ050>053-065>067.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Friday
     for IAZ043-055-056.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     IAZ069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

083
FXUS63 KGID 120827
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
327 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions expected today with a Red
  Flag Warning in effect 12pm to 9pm.

- High Wind Watch in effect 9pm to 3am Friday across
  northeastern portions of the area where gusts up to 60mph are
  possible.

- Highs today in the 70s with west-southwesterly winds gusting
  35-45mph.

- Windy weather returns Sunday with gusts over 50mph possible
  along with light snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 20s with
mostly clear skies. Aloft a shortwave trough is moving over the
northern Rockies. A deepening low moves into the Plains this
morning, lifting a warm front across the area. As the atmosphere
begins to mix this morning, gusty southwesterly winds develop over
the area, gusting 30-40mph. Highs today will soar into the 70s aided
by strong southwesterly flow. Warm temperatures and deep mixing as
shown in forecast soundings result in afternoon relative humidity
values falling below 20% across the area. A push of stronger winds
moves into the area from the west during the mid-late afternoon
hours, with gusts to 45mph. Combined, this results in critical fire
weather conditions across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours with rapid fire growth possible in fires that develop. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect 12pm to 9pm.

A cold front dives into the area this evening, bringing a threat for
strong northerly winds to the area. some hi-res model guidance like
the HRRR indicates an area of strong winds with gusts up to 60mph
possible across northeastern portions of the area. Not all guidance
support winds this strong, though a window of gusty winds is still
favored across northeastern portions of the area behind the front.
Forecast soundings show 50kt winds stretching down as low as 925mb
aloft, with a fairly shallow inversion due to daytime mixing which
would support a potential for headline worthy winds. In
collaboration with neighboring offices, a High Wind Watch was issued
from 9pm today through 3am Friday where there is the greatest model
support for high winds (counties along/north of I-80 And east of
Highway 183).

Winds steadily weaken during the early morning hours, with gusts
falling below 20mph for most areas by sunrise. Cooler but still
seasonably warm weather is expected on Friday with highs in the 50s
(central/northeast) and 60s (southwest). A brief window of near-
critical fire weather conditions may develop along/west of Highway
283 during the afternoon-evening hours.

Otherwise the other main forecast concern remains on track as
another round of strong winds are possible on Sunday behind a
deepening low pressure system. ECMWF ensembles indicate a 30-60%
chance for wind gusts of 60mph. Light snow is also possible, which
combined with the strong winds may result in reduced visibilities in
falling snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The quick dusting+ of snow that accumulated on grassy and
elevated surfaces this morning can be seen rapidly eroding on
satellite imagery this afternoon...with little coverage
remaining as of 2 PM. Some fair weather CU can also be seen
developing on satellite, but all indications from model data
and soundings are that this will not be deep enough to support
any showers/sprinkles this afternoon.

As the frontal boundary that brought some light (and in some
cases modest) snowfall to the area this morning continues to
push southeast of the local area, expect southerly return flow
to begin to develop across the area overnight tonight. As the
pressure gradient then tighten on the backside of this high
ahead of the next cold front Thursday afternoon, expect winds to
really crank up, with a windy and dry day expected across the
region. With wind gusts 40+ MPH and RH values below 20 percent,
widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected, and
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning earlier
this afternoon.

Expect yet another cold front to cross the area Thursday night,
with just the smallest chance (20%) for a shower overnight
across our northeast, with cooler, but less windy conditions
expected across the area Friday. Temperatures will then rebound
Saturday (more fire weather concerns?) dropping more
significantly behind another cold front Sunday morning. This yo
yo in temperatures will result in high temperatures topping out
only in the 30s for much of the area Sunday afternoon, along
with very strong winds and a small chance (20-50%) for some
light snowfall accumulation. Any snow with winds 50+ MPH across
the area could result in reduced visibilities, especially for
northern areas that are most likely to see light snowfall
accumulations. While visibilities will be a concern, the raw
strength of the winds could also be an issue with a significant
number of the EC ensemble members showing an increasing
potential for 60+ MPH wind gusts Sunday afternoon - which may
eventually warrant the need for a High Wind Warning.

As winds then die off Sunday evening, expect a very cold start
to the work week, with lower teens currently in the forecast to
start the day Monday. Temperatures thereafter begin to
moderate as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across
the area from the west, and this high will likely help
temperatures soar well above normal again by the middle of next
week with a potentially prolonged period of above normal
temperatures (and dry conditions) then expected to extend
through potentially the end of March.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS
possible around sunrise, and around sunset. Southwesterly winds
of 5-10kts are expected through the early morning hours. Before
sunrise, winds rapidly strengthen aloft with LLWS developing
over the area. LLWS will weaken during the mid-late morning
hours as surface winds strengthen. Gusty-Strong southwesterly
winds sustained 20-25kts and gusting around 35kts are expected
mid morning-early afternoon. During the mid-late afternoon
hours, winds shift to the west and strengthen further, with
gusts of 35-40kts. Winds drop off around sunset, as gusts fall
to or below 30kts, with LLWS redeveloping aloft. LLWS will
weaken late in the TAF period as a cold front moves through the
area with winds shifting to the northwest wind gusts climbing
reaching 30-40kts (highest at KGRI).

FEW-SCT high level clouds are possible throughout the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across the
area today with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 12pm to 9pm today.
Southwesterly winds gusting 30-40mph will develop by the mid morning
hours as the atmosphere begins to mix. Highs climb into the 70s
today with soundings showing deep mixing which results in afternoon
relative humidity values falling below 20% across the area. Winds
shift to the west during the mid-late afternoon hours as a push of
stronger winds moves into the area, with gusts to 45mph. Winds
weaken somewhat around sunset, though gusts may still reach 30-
35mph.

A cold front moves into the area around 9-11pm with winds
shifting to the north behind the front and strengthening once again,
particularly along/north of Interstate 80 and along/east of Highway
281 where gusts may reach 50-60mph. Relative humidity values will
likely be slow to improve, with most areas remaining below 40%
through midnight. If greater winds do unfold (as shown in the
HRRR/RAP, it could result in humidity values falling back into the
20s after midnight. Otherwise, cooler temperatures behind the front
will see a slow improvement in dewpoints overnight, reaching 50% by
sunrise on Friday. Winds steadily decrease during the early morning
hours, with most areas seeing gusts fall below 20mph by sunrise.

Fire weather concerns continue into the weekend due to breezy winds
and lower relative humidity values resulting in near-critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the area during the afternoon.
Strong winds gusting over 50mph are possible on Sunday, but cooler
temperatures and chances for snow bring uncertainty on the fire
weather potential.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion