Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

348
FXUS63 KOAX 222311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (12-14%) for some sprinkles in northeast
  Nebraska this afternoon. Most locations stay dry with highs in
  the low to mid 70s.

- Chance for showers and storms early Tuesday morning (60-80%)
  and again in the late morning and afternoon hours (30-50%).
  Considerable uncertainty exists regarding if storms may become
  strong to severe.

- Continued chances for showers and storms Wednesday through
  Friday (15-30%). A gradual warming trend takes shape for the
  weekend with more chances for storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis at H5 features two prominent disturbances
tracking along the US/Canada border while the Northern Plains
remains influenced by primarily weak zonal to northwesterly flow. At
the sfc, a channel of high pressure extends from Manitoba/western
Ontario southward into much of the Northern Plains.

The sfc high will lead to rather pleasant conditions today with most
locations reaching highs of low to mid 70s under some cumulus
clouds. Winds remain light and from the east southeast. Some weak H8
warm air advection on the backside of the high could lead to a few
scattered sprinkles in far northeast Nebraska. Chances don`t look
great though at around 12-14%, so largely expecting the dry weather
to prevail. For tonight, lows cool to the mid to upper 50s.

By early Tuesday morning, the H5 low over western Saskatchewan will
track eastward toward North Dakota. H8 warm advection just ahead of
the main sfc cold front should result in broad lift helping generate
some scattered showers and storms over South Dakota. CAMs depict
this activity tracking southeast, somewhat weakening as it
enters northeast Nebraska. 0-6 km bulk shear appears abundant,
but the main instability axis should be located just to the west
of OAX. Forecast soundings show very little instability rooted
aloft along our far western edge during the early morning hours.
If a storm were able to strengthen, the main threat it`d have
would likely be large hail. Considerable spread is still seen in
regards to the location of where convection may develop and how
strong it will be. PoPs remain at 60 to 80%, over northeast
Nebraska, peaking around 14z.

By the late morning and afternoon hours, guidance shows the
instability plume of 500 to 1,000 j/kg inching toward our far west
and southwest portions of the CWA while the strong shear remains in
place. While this scenario seems favorable for severe weather, lots
of uncertainty exists. Some guidance like the HRRR reintensifies the
lingering convection over our far western areas in the afternoon,
eventually morphing into an MCS (with the threat becoming primarily
damaging winds) that exits our area in the late afternoon hours.
However, other CAMs like the HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF suggest
convection igniting along the main sfc cold front by the late
afternoon and early evening hours, eventually congealing into an MCS
and tracking toward the south. Guidance like the NAM 4km Nest and
FV3 seem to show just widely scattered showers and storms along the
front. In other words, confidence on how this convection will evolve
remains extremely low. At this time, the SPC has maintained the
categorical Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe weather risk for portions
of eastern Nebraska. PoPs remain anywhere from 30 to 50% for the
bulk of the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs
warm to the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Wednesday through Friday will see continued zonal to northwesterly
flow at H5 helping bring continued weak waves into the region. This
will lead to at least some threat for showers and storms across the
forecast area during those days. NBM extended has PoPs of 15 to 30%
areawide with this forecast update.

Expanding 1000-500mb thicknesses arrive by the weekend and should
result in temperatures increasing to the mid to upper 80s Saturday,
and low 90s for Sunday. Global models are in good agreement of a
longwave trof developing over the western CONUS during the weekend,
resulting in increased southwest flow. Lee cyclogenesis ensues with
the feature tracking somewhere across the Plains. While still
several days out, the various machine learning algorithms continue
to suggest some threat for strong to severe storms during this
period. At this time, NBM PoPs remain at 15 to 30% with the highest
chances over far eastern Nebraska into Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Few to scattered high
base clouds this evening with winds out of the south and east.
These conditions will hold overnight with showers, perhaps a few
thunderstorms moving in Tuesday morning from the north. Showers
arrive at KOFK around 13-14Z, KOMA around 17-18Z, and KLNK
around 18-19Z. Showers clear 1-2 hours after arrival. Cigs with
showers will be around 7000-9000ft. There will be only around a
20% chance of thunderstorms, so have left as -SHRA in the TAFs
for now. Winds become more southerly during the day on Tuesday,
staying out of the south into the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

060
FXUS63 KGID 222326
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though a few showers/rumbles of thunder impact northern areas
  the rest of this afternoon...most locations are dry through
  the evening hours.

- Better chances for precipitation will slide south late tonight
  and into the daytime hours on Tuesday. Even this close in
  time, there are still a number of differences between models
  with the overall timing of this precipitation pushing south
  and the coverage across the forecast area. There will be the
  potential for some storms to be strong-severe on
  Tuesday...especially across southern areas if activity hasn`t
  already pushed through by mid-late afternoon. Far SWrn areas
  are in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk, rest of the area in the
  Marginal Risk area.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances look to continue on through the
  end of the work week, with models drier for the upcoming
  weekend.

- High temperatures mainly in the 70s stick around through the
  end of the work week...with upper 80s-mid 90s working back by
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently through this evening...

Overall been quiet across the forecast area through the mid-
afternoon hours, with satellite imagery showing partly-mostly
cloudy skies with quite a bit of low-mid level CU around. In
the upper levels...the area sits under west-northwesterly flow,
set up between broad high pressure spread across the southern
CONUS and a couple of areas of low pressure over central/eastern
portions of Canada. Seeing a few shortwave disturbances
embedded in the main flow...one working into the southeastern
CONUS, others over the High Plains and Nrn Rockies. At the
surface, winds across the forecast area are southeasterly, with
broad high pressure over eastern NE/KS northward into the MN
region...with low pressure/troughing along the High Plains.
Radar showing a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
working east toward northern portions of the forecast
area...but the main focus of storm development is further west,
along the sfc front and upper forcing. Models continue to show
this western activity working its way east the rest of this
afternoon and evening...but are in pretty good agreement showing
it not making enough eastward progress to have much impact on
our area between the loss of daytime heating and moving into an
area with less instability to work with.

Tonight into Tuesday...

Further into the overnight hours tonight and early Tuesday
morning, models showing one of the upper level lows mentioned
above moving further east...ending up near the MT/ND/Can border
by 12Z Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to develop along
the southward extending troughing with time...and have precip
chances ramping up after 06Z, and especially after 09Z tonight.
Unfortunately, even being this close to the event...there is
still plenty of uncertainties and lowered confidence in how
activity evolves as we get into the daytime hours on Tuesday.
There are still quite a few differences between models...some
showing more one main push through on the earlier side of
things, others linger at least scattered activity around most of
the day. Because of the uncertainty, forecast precipitation
chances are pretty broad...highest PoPs are currently during the
morning hours across northern areas, with more uncertainty
further in the day. Though there are some questions with the
timing of when things arrive/move through...most models have the
brunt of activity pushing south of the CWA by evening (some are
just quicker pushing it through than others). Not out of the
question that some storms could be strong to severe, even
through the first half of the day...that potential would
increase if it`s a slower progression or there are more breaks
in precip/clouds that can allow for better instability to
develop/work with. The further south you go, the better that
potential for more instability is...thus only far SWrn portions
of the CWA are included in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area...the
rest of the area is in the Marginal Risk area. 60 MPH
wind/quarter hail would be the main threats for the earlier
activity...but later in the afternoon, storms with gusts closer
to 70 MPH and larger hail would be possible.

Wednesday on through the weekend...

Looking at the mid-late work week time frame...models showing
little overall change in the upper level pattern. Flow across
the region looks to remain largely zonal/progressive...with
periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional thunderstorm
chances to the forecast area. Didn`t make any changes to the
NBM PoPs, which are focused mainly in the late Wed night-Thu
night time frame. As we get into the upcoming weekend...current
models showing a drier trend, a bit of a break from these upper
level disturbances, even with pattern turning more southwesterly
as a larger-scale low pressure system moves onto the West
Coast.

As far as temperatures go...confidence in how temps pan out for
Tuesday is on the lower side due to the precip potential during
the day, but most spots are forecast to reach the mid-70s. The
Wed-Fri time frame look to remain in the 70s for much of the
area...with highs climbing into the weekend. Mainly 80s are
forecast for Saturday, with Sunday in the upper 80s-mid 90s for
most.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored overnight. Sub-VFR conditions possible
(15-25%) after sunrise in/around storms though considerable
uncertainty remains on timing and duration.

Partly cloudy skies are expected overnight. After sunrise a
cluster of showers/storms is favored to move towards KGRI/KEAR
though there remains a fair amount of spread in model guidance
for the timing of this. There is also uncertainty on how long
storms last, ranging from just a few hours (2-4) to off and on
storms lingering throughout the daytime hours on Tuesday. Given
this spread, have opted to keep broad Prob30 groups 12-21z. In
storms, MVFR-IFR Ceilings/Vis can`t be ruled out, but given
overall uncertainty have kept a mention out of the TAF at this
time (though a window of sub-VFR will probably be needed).
Winds will be southeasterly throughout the TAF period at
5-10kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion