Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

033
FXUS63 KOAX 302317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
517 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with highs in the low 40s east of the Missouri
  River, and mid to upper 40s west. A few spots along our far
  west could hit 50F.

- Warm temperatures continue Wednesday with breezy winds,
  followed by a brief cool down in the 30s for Thursday and
  Friday.

- Dry conditions continue for the extended forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

20z RAP objective analysis at H5 shows northwesterly flow over
much of the central CONUS, while off to the east the longwave
trof and strong 498dam closed low spins over eastern Quebec,
and to the west ridging dominates. Within the H5 northwesterly
flow, a weak wave is observed trekking through Nebraska into
Iowa. The feature has resulted in a few high based clouds, but
nothing more notable than that. Winds have been light too across
most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with the lone
exception of northeast Nebraska where slightly deeper mixing and
a tighter pressure gradient are observed.

Sunny conditions are forecast for the remainder of the afternoon
with highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s east of the Missouri
River, and mid to upper 40s west. A few spots across our far west
could hit 50F. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight
across far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 20s for most locations.

By Wednesday, H8 warm air advection overspreads much of Nebraska
resulting in high temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s over much
central into southeast Nebraska. Slightly cooler temperatures in the
low to mid 40s are expected for the rest of the area. A strong
wave will eject from northern Manitoba southeast toward the
Great Lakes vicinity throughout the day. The associated sfc
feature`s cold front will extend to the west, crossing the
forecast area from north to south by Wednesday evening. Winds
will be breezy too in the vicinity of the front at 25 to 35 mph,
tapering off by the late evening. Low level convergence along
the sfc boundary may be enough to generate some low clouds, but
dry conditions are expected. Lows Wednesday night reach the mid
teens in northeast Nebraska and far western Iowa to low 20s for
the rest of the area.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The western CONUS H5 ridge will deamplify somewhat on Thursday as a
strong shortwave off the coast of southwest California tracks
northeast. A few waves are seen ejecting from the eastern periphery
of the ridge near the Rockies. However, model guidance keeps these
disturbances well away from the area. Sfc ridging moves over
portions of the Northern Plains too, helping suppress any PoP
chances for Thursday and Friday. Behind Wednesday`s front, highs
Thursday and Friday cool to the 30s.

This "cool down" will be short lived though as strong H8 warm air
advection moves over a large portion of the Northern and Central
Plains by the weekend and into early next week. Highs Saturday warm
to the 40s for most locations, with widespread 50s across eastern
Nebraska by Sunday. The warmth continues through at least Monday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance is also in fairly good agreement
that dry weather prevails for the duration of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

IR satellite and surface observations as of 5 PM (23z) indicate
a a shield of MVFR clouds (FL019-025) present over eastern SD
and southwest MN, slowly drifting south. Ensemble data suggest
that the western edge of the more continuous ceilings are most
likely to remain in western IA. However, some deterministic
guidance indicates the MVFR ceilings affecting KOFK and KOMA
after 03 or 04z. Prevailing VFR conditions will be maintained
for those locations in this forecast update, and observational
trends will continue to be monitored for potential amendments.

There is also some model signal for patchy fog development in
the 12-15z timeframe in the KOMA vicinity. Otherwise, northwest
winds at less than 12 kt are expected overnight. Winds switch to
west or southwest Wednesday morning before switching back to
northwest by mid/late afternoon. Latest LLWS forecasts are lower
than previously indicated, so that mention has been removed in
this update.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

395
FXUS63 KGID 302348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
548 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and mild/warm for the next week, or so.

- A "backdoor" cold front will bring a brief cooldown toward
  average for Thursday and Friday.

- Ensembles are showing some indications for a pattern shift
  towards the middle third of January - cooler and maybe more
  active, but this is obviously still a ways off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place across the
CONUS thanks to deep troughing from the Hudson Bay to New
England and broad ridging centered over the N Rockies. This
leaves us in-between under fast NW upper flow and within
downsloping/dry low level flow. Temperatures have risen
nicely today into the upper 40s and lower 50s under partly to
mostly sunny skies. Quiet and mild conditions will continue into
tonight, which will provide a nice springboard for temperatures
on New Year`s Eve/Wednesday. Latest forecast still calls for 50s
areawide, and think areas from around Arapahoe to Stockton could
even get into the low 60s. Winds will be a bit more NWrly and
still mild and dry, but not so much so that the warmth comes
with fire weather concerns. RHs should remain mostly upper 20s
to 30s, and gusts only 20-25 MPH. So a bit elevated - and fuels
are certainly dry - but not really a "near-critical" setup.

A rather significant front/temperature gradient will gradually
back into the area from the NE on Thursday. This could set the
stage for a fairly tight temp gradient from SW to NE across
Neb/Kan...ranging from near 50 along Hwy 283, to only 30s along
and E of Hwy 81. Low level mixing remains very weak into Friday,
so this will keep temps cool for one more day in the 30s to mid
40s. Fortunately, the cooler (but still only near-normal) will
come without much wind chill.

Temperatures warm up yet again for the weekend into early next
week. In fact, latest ensembles are in good agreement in
widespread 50s and even some lower 60s for Sun-Mon. Neither day
looks overly windy, so once again, the nice weather should come
without any significant fire wx threat. Lows will also remain
mild and only slightly below freezing.

Ensembles also indicate and general downward trend in
temperatures for the second half of next week, potentially
setting the stage for an actual wintry pattern for the middle
third, or so, of January. Obviously, any significant pattern
change is still at least 10+ days out, but something we`ll be
monitoring over the coming days...because there`s simply not
much else to look at. Ha! Until then, enjoy the dry and mild end
to 2025 and start to 2026!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clouds exiting to the south tonight and sweeping by from
the northeast Wednesday will not impact VFR conditions through
the period. Light winds tonight will start out of the northwest
between 5-10kts, briefing becoming southwesterly for the early
morning. Winds picking up during the later morning and afternoon
hours will peak between 10-15kts with gust as high as 20-25kts.
Directions will turn back to the north by Wednesday evening.
Precipitation is not expected.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion