Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

857
FXUS63 KOAX 080517
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10-14% chance for a few sprinkles early this morning into the
  afternoon hours. Highs warm to the mid to upper 70s.

- 50-60% chance for some showers and storms over the
  Nebraska/Kansas border area on Saturday.

- Highs in the 80s are forecast for Monday through Thursday,
  with chances for showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday
  (20-45%) and again Thursday (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective analysis shows a weak shortwave currently entering
portions of central Nebraska. This feature combined with weak H7-H8
thermal advection has led to an area of mid level clouds slowly
approaching the forecast area from the west. Latest CAM guidance
continues to develop a band of light showers over areas along and
south of the Platte River this morning, but the bulk of this precip
will likely not reach the sfc given the low level dry air seen in
forecast BUFKIT soundings. Have thrown in some sprinkles (10-14%
chance) into the forecast for early this morning through 18z for
most of the area with this forecast update.

For the rest of the day, should see a mix of clouds and sun with
highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Similar to this morning, some
model guidance hints at afternoon showers but with cloud bases at
10kft underneath dry air, we should stay dry. Winds will be breezy
from the northwest, particularly over northeast Nebraska in the
afternoon hours. Lows Friday night cool to the 40s.

On Saturday, an H5 shortwave will eject from the Pacific Northwest
toward the Northern Plains as we remain in northwest flow. A
secondary wave will ride the southwest periphery of the closed
522dam Canadian low. Sfc cyclogenesis ensues just ahead of the
secondary wave over the Great Lakes, while the associated cold front
extends from the sfc low toward much of Iowa into Nebraska. The
front combined with the approaching Pacific Northwest wave may
trigger a few scattered showers and storms, particularly in the late
afternoon and evening hours when forcing for ascent is strongest.
The newest deterministic CAM guidance has started trickling in for
Saturday, but doesn`t appear to have much agreement on how far north
precip may develop. 00z HREF probabilities indicate the highest
chances for precip (40-50%) confined to areas south of a line from
Lincoln to Clarinda, IA, while global ensembles including the Euro
and Canadian seem to suggest the highest chances for precip along
the Nebraska/Kansas border. At this time, have maintained the NBM
solution which keeps PoPs of 15 to 30% south of the Platte River,
and keeps 50 to 60% PoPs confined to the Nebraska/Kansas border.
Expect highs to warm to the mid 70s behind the front, while 80s are
expected ahead of the feature. Lows Saturday night cool to the 40s.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

For Sunday, expect slightly cooler highs in the low 70s with a few
clouds and dry conditions as sfc high pressure moves in.
Temperatures rebound for Monday to the 80s as 1000-500 mb
thicknesses expand and move toward the Central Plains.

An H5 wave is progged to track from southern Saskatchewan into North
Dakota and Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday morning. The feature
will induce sfc cyclogenesis with a front swinging through the area
overnight. A few showers and storms may develop with this feature as
PoPs remain at 20 to 45%, but are largely confined to far northeast
Nebraska into west central Iowa. Warm temperatures continue for the
remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 80s and dry
conditions.

Expect slightly warmer temperatures for Thursday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s, while locations in our far southwest could
approach 90F. Chances for showers and storms return too, currently
at 15 to 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light
winds overnight should gradually shift to the northwest by late
morning and early afternoon Friday as a weak front moves across
the region. There is a low chance of showers tonight and late
tomorrow afternoon, but aviation impacts are not anticipated due
to very dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

137
FXUS63 KGID 080601
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers/weak thunderstorms possible this
  evening (any storms mainly in our southwest), with spotty
  light showers/sprinkles lingering here or there through the
  overnight. Any rainfall expected to be light (0.10" at
  most...many areas likely no more than sprinkles).

- Solidly near-critical fire weather conditions looking
  increasingly-likely Friday afternoon (especially counties
  along/north of I-80), due to a combination of breezy northwest
  winds and relative humidity (RH) as low as 20-25%. Next week,
  at-least-near-critical conditions likely nearly every day as
  temps warm/winds increase.

- Although likely only scattered in coverage, our overall BEST
  chance for showers/thunderstorms through the next 7 days
  arrives Sat afternoon-evening. Severe storms appear fairly
  unlikely, but a few stronger possible especially in our KS
  counties.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the
  forecast period with highs in the 70s/80s each day and
  overnight lows mainly 40s/50s. It is increasingly-likely that
  frost/freeze concerns are behind us for the spring.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper level disturbance in northwesterly flow will cross the
local area tonight brining with it the chance for a few high
based showers/sprinkles and possibly a weak thunderstorm to
parts of the local area. Given the lack of surface moisture,
little to no accumulation is expected across the vast majority
of the local area, with the best chance of a thunderstorm
expected during the evening hours across areas primarily
southwest of the Nebraska Tri-cities.

Continued northwest flow will then persist into the weekend
before an upper level ridge eventually transitions eastward
across the local area by Sunday. Before the upper level ridge
moves across the local area, one more notable disturbance is
expected to impact the local area on Saturday brining with it a
slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening (although there is a low end chance for a
few pop up sprinkles Friday afternoon). While a few stronger
storms with mainly gusty winds will be possible with this
disturbance/surface front Saturday, limited instability will
likely limit the potential for severe weather...and the local
area remains outside the marginal risk from SPC. That said, a
few models such as the NAMnest fire up a line of storms along
the front Saturday afternoon which could eventually impact local
portions of north central Kansas before exiting the area, so
will need to continue to keep an eye on the timing of this
system.

Thereafter...an upper level ridge is expected build across the
area late in the weekend with a return to high temperatures well
above normal (in the 80s) through at least the first half of
next week. These warmer temperatures combined with a continued
dry airmass and breezy afternoons will eventually likely result
in some near-critical to critical fire weather concerns,
although with fuels starting to green-up, some of this concern
may be at least partially alleviated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions with only a few sprinkles through
sunrise.

Winds turn to the northwest this afternoon, with gusts near
20kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion