Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

449
FXUS63 KOAX 120508
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return early Saturday (60-80% chance)
  with another chance for severe storms from 3 to 8 AM.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday with much
  uncertainty in the forecast details beyond Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mostly clear skies with northwesterly winds keeping temperatures
very pleasant this evening. Water vapor satellite imagery shows
the upper-level pattern well, with a broad trough over the
Northern Plains and the wave that lead to damaging storms across
our area this morning is currently wreaking havoc over northern
Illinois this evening.

We see weak ridging pass across our area on Friday keeping skies
clear. We lose the cooling effect of the northerly winds,
though, with a shift back to southerly flow by the afternoon.
This will allow temperatures to warm back into the mid 80s,
though humidity will remain low. Friday night we`ll see the
western side of the ridge start to bring moisture back up into
our region from the Gulf. With the nocturnal amplification of
the LLJ, we`ll see the atmosphere destabilize above the boundary
layer Friday night ahead of a shortwave riding across the nearly zonal
flow at 250-mb over the Central Plains. This will trigger
another round of overnight storms early Saturday morning.
Current guidance is leaning toward more of an early-morning
threat for strong to severe storms, which would be elevated
lending to a greater hail, wind, and flooding threat. If timing
slows down, we`d see an increased potential for surface-based
storms which means tornadoes. Right now the greater potential
for surface-based storms is over eastern Kansas into Missouri.

Sunday and beyond...

Once storms clear on Saturday or Saturday night, a cooler
Canadian air mass settles back over our region with mild, dry
weather expected through Tuesday. The upper-level zonal flow in
place over the weekend cedes to a strong trough dropping out of
Alberta, deepening across the Upper-Mississippi River Valley
Monday into Tuesday. To the west, we see ridging build up over
the PacNW, expanding eastward into the Great Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. As this occurs, we`ll see temperatures trending back
upward Tuesday into Wednesday.

A rigorous shortwave rides down into the northern Plains Tuesday
afternoon/evening, leading to the development of a broad area of
low pressure over the High Plains. As this shifts eastward and
deepens Tuesday night, we see the development of a strong
nocturnal LLJ pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
This will advect significant moisture back into our area
bringing back chances for nocturnal showers and storms into
early Wednesday.

Model guidance diverges significantly in how the upper-level
pattern responds behind this mid-week system, meaning
significant uncertainty in the forecast toward the latter half
of next week at this time. Guidance trends of warming
temperatures seem likely with the ridge continuing to shift
eastward over the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with clear skies
overnight and a few mid-level clouds Friday afternoon. Winds
will be light and westerly to southwesterly overnight before
becoming southerly and gusting around 20 kts during the
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

882
FXUS63 KGID 120518
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1218 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may
  bring a few strong storms to the area. The severe threat,
  however, looks to remain limited through Saturday morning.

- A slight risk of severe weather covers only a few southeast
  portions of the area Saturday afternoon. This threat is highly
  conditional based on the timing of the front on Saturday.

- Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the
  low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the
  90s to potentially the low 100s in a handful of places by
  midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026


Tonight and Friday...

Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low
80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time
in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe
weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that
has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally
ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal,
generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher
pressure marching in behind last night`s front has helped clear out
most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as
response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few
degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and
beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to
southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from
today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon.


Friday Night into Saturday...

A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over
Canada`s Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains
region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer
of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold
front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few
storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday
into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe
weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would
not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or
gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms.
Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts
of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong
storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture
will rebound from today. The current forecast projects dewpoints to
only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at least initially, generally
not all that supportive. A few of these overnight storms may linger
into Saturday morning as the front passes through the area.

A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited
southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a
line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be
highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday
morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the
front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in
the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take
place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip
our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards
will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms
wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a
few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will
turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH
winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon.


Sunday and Beyond...

Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the
flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern
does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs
(10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast
period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that
stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out
for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back
to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to persist through most of the
forecast period. Clear skies and light northwesterly winds will
veer tonight and become southerly by sunrise. Winds will
increase throughout the day, gusting to as high as 28 kts in the
afternoon. Skies will be clear throughout the morning and early
afternoon, with the potential for a few high clouds during the
afternoon/evening.

Low-level wind shear is possible at the end of the forecast
period, as a SSW nocturnal low-level jet develops and the
surface winds start to weaken after sunset. However, confidence
in the magnitude, height, and coverage of this shear is low and
has thus not been included in the TAF at this time.

While thunderstorms are unlikely to impact the terminals during
the forecast period, there is a nonzero chance at the very end
of the forecast period (6Z and beyond). Again, this thunderstorm
chance was not included in the TAF due to the low confidence of
impacts during this forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion