Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

628
FXUS63 KOAX 222326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts
  continue into the afternoon, before tapering off this evening.
  Areas of very high fire danger persist over eastern Nebraska
  and southwest Iowa today.

- Cooler today and Monday with highs in the 50s. There is a low
  (10-30%) chance of light showers on Monday.

- A warming trend returns for Tuesday through Thursday, with
  fire weather concerns expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A strong cold front pushed through the region this morning,
bringing a strong north wind and cloud cover. This cloud cover
is quickly eroding this afternoon, but the strong winds continue
to linger. Northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with 30 to 40 mph
gusts are expected to last through the afternoon before tapering
off this evening. Cooler temperatures have filled in behind the
front as well. Temperatures are anywhere between 40 and 50
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. That being said, by mid
afternoon, everyone is expected to be near normal in the 50s.
The cooler temperatures hang on into Monday, but again this ends
up being near normal. A passing shortwave embedded in the flow
moves across the region Monday afternoon and evening. This
system is forecast to produce a band of showers that moves
across the area. The limiting factor will be considerable dry
air in the low-levels which may prevent most of this rain from
reaching the ground. That said, have maintained at least a low
(10-30%) chance of light showers on Monday.

The persistent ridge of high pressure over the southwestern US
will build back north and east Tuesday into Thursday. This will
start another warming trend, quickly bringing well above normal
temperatures back into the forecast. Highs in the upper 60s and
70s are anticipated Tuesday with 80s making a return on
Wednesday. Another weather system will begin to move across the
region on Thursday. Despite this system and accompanying cold
front, temperatures are currently forecast to reach the upper
60s to near 80 across the region prior to the frontal passage.
Temperatures are expected to cool significantly behind this
front. There is a low (10-30%) of showers behind the front
Thursday evening, with a rain/snow mix possible by Friday
morning. This cooler weather is short-lived once again, as
another warming trend ends the work week and the beginning of
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions should persist for much of the TAF period.
Gusty north northwest winds of 25 to 30 kts should subside
within the next hour or two, becoming under 12 kts thereafter.
Winds turn clockwise and become southeasterly after 12z and
should remain under 12 kts aside from KOFK where gustiness of 20
to 25 kts returns for the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
a cloud deck developing at around 1,500 ft after 13-14z. At this
time, the cloud deck is expected to remain in VFR at FEW to
SCT. A band of clouds at 9,000 to 12,000 ft may result in a few
rain showers at terminals after 18z, but at only a 15 to 20%
chance for occurrence.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

730
FXUS63 KGID 222348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unfortunately, every one of the next 7 days will likely have at
  least "near-critical" fire weather conditions within some/all
  of our forecast area (CWA). Although no particular days
  currently show obvious/high confidence signs of having
  outright-critical conditions that could require Warning
  issuance, it is quite probable that a few days will trend
  "worse" for fire weather as they get closer in time. (see
  separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- Precipitation-wise: Our official forecast carries some rather
  low-confidence/small-ish chances for very light rain/sprinkles
  on Monday...and then perhaps a touch of rain and/or snow
  around Thurs night. However and unfortunately, the VAST
  MAJORITY of the next 7 days will surely remain dry, as we
  sink ever-deeper into a worsening drought situation.

- Temperature-wise: Although nothing quite as extreme as
  Saturday`s historic early-season heat is apparent, these next
  7 days will surely show quite a bit of variation. Highs are
  expected to range anywhere from the 50s (mainly Monday and
  Friday), to as warm as the 80s with maybe some limited low-90s
  on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- As far as forecast changes/uncertainties go, nothing truly
  major to speak of as the main messages through the next 7 days
  clearly remain daily fire weather concerns to varying
  degrees, fairly large temperature swings, and VERY limited
  precipitation chances. That being said:

1) High temps for Wednesday jumped up a good 3-4 degrees from
our early-AM forecast, with most of our CWA now aimed well into
the 80s (at least near-record territory for March 25th at Grand
Island/Hastings), and even some low 90s now forecast for some of
our far southern-southwest counties.

2) As is unfortunately very common with wind speed forecasts
especially more than 2 days out in time, our official forecast
is almost certainly still too "tame" with wind speeds on
various upcoming days including Tuesday/Wednesday, and only a
modest increase in forecast speeds could easily bring critical
fire weather conditions more into play (again, see dedicated
Fire Weather section below for more details).

- Peeking slightly beyond our official 7-day forecast, there are
  still some "hopeful hints" that perhaps the March 30th-April
  1st time frame could FINALLY bring some increased chances for
  a little more widespread rain (and maybe even some
  thunderstorm activity?) to our area.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 29)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Wow, what a difference a day makes! Although official CALENDAR
DAY high temperatures will officially reflect very mild highs
well into the 60s-70s (readings just after midnight last night),
actual DAYTIME highs (under widespread sunshine this afternoon)
are on track to top out "only" 53-62 degrees across most of our
CWA...some 35-40 DEGREES COOLER than yesterday`s historic early-
season heat! Even so, we are still talking temperatures that are
technically just above "normal" for the date. Besides the much
cooler temperatures, the other obvious story today has been the
blustery north winds, with much of the morning/early afternoon
featuring gusts commonly up around 45 MPH (and a handful of
gusts up to around 55 MPH). Fortunately though, and as expected,
wind speeds over the last few hours have started to slowly trend
downward, with the rest of the afternoon mainly featuring
sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH)...with the surface
pressure gradient continuing to slowly relax as a ridge of high
pressure noses closer to us out of the Dakotas/western MN.
Fortunately for fire weather concerns, relative humidity (RH)
has/will only drop as low as 25-35 percent at worst this
afternoon...keeping us out of official critical (20%) territory.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term
model data confirm that the Central Plains resides under broad
west-northwesterly flow aloft...directed between large-
scale/lower amplitude ridging over the southwestern U.S., and
troughing over the northeast U.S.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
This evening, skies will remain clear/mostly clear as north-
northeast winds steadily diminish, with speeds down to around
only 10 MPH by 9-11 PM...then even lighter yet into the late
night hours as direction gradually turns more easterly and
southeasterly as the aforementioned surface ridge axis slides
just to our east. Later in the night, mid and high level clouds
will be on a steady increase from the west as as low amplitude
disturbance approaches. It`s not out of the question that a few
sprinkles could even try falling shortly before sunrise in our
extreme southwest (Furnas County area), but this is not in the
official forecast. Low temps are a little tricky tonight, as it
will be a "battle" between the lightening winds and the
increasing cloud cover. However, no matter what this will
probably be the coldest night of the next week, with lows aimed
from upper 20s-low 30s north and northeast, to mid 30s south and
southwest.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
Our break from breezy-to-windy conditions is brief, as south-
south southeast winds will increase especially during the
afternoon as our pressure gradient tightens up. Sustained
afternoon speeds will commonly be 15-25 MPH/gusts 20-35
MPH...overall-strongest within our western half (west of Hwy
281). In other departments, it will be a rather cloudy day with
a considerable amount of mainly mid-level clouds based 5-10K ft.
While most places will surely remain completely dry and/or see
no more than a rogue sprinkle or two, have maintained some
slight chances (20%) for light rain during the day for much of
mainly our Nebraska counties, as various models suggest that a
touch of light rain could make it to the surface despite the
drier low levels. Would be VERY surprised to see any locations
measure more than a few hundredths of an inch. Given the
widespread clouds, there is a little uncertainty in high temps,
as we MIGHT be aiming a touch too warm in some spots, but
currently calling for mid-upper 50s most places, and any warmer
low 60s confined to our far south-southwestern counties. As
detailed in Fire Weather section below, a few of our extreme
western counties will need closely monitored for possible
marginally-critical conditions.

For Monday evening-overnight, left the forecast dry for now,
but a few models hint that especially our KS counties could be
prone to a few sprinkles. In the presence of fairly light but
steady south-southeast breezes, low temps will not be quite as
chilly as tonight...mainly mid-upper 30s most places.


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
Our next warm-up gets underway, as upper level high
pressure/ridging over the southwestern U.S. starts to exert more
of an influence into our part of the nation. High temps bounce
back up into the low-mid 70s most places, with perhaps an 80
possible especially out in Furnas County. Southerly winds will
be breezy and probably a bit stronger than our current forecast
reflects, and think it`s pretty likely that later forecast will
trend toward gusts closer to 25 MPH than 20 MPH. As with daytime
highs, overnight low temps also warm, with Tues night lows
likely to hold up well into the 40s.


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
As touched on earlier, this day keeps looking warmer and warmer,
and although nothing quite as extreme as yesterday`s warmth, we
are now calling for highs well into the 80s most areas, and even
some low 90s far south-southwest. Like Tuesday, our current wind
forecast may not be strong enough, but gusts of at least 20-25
MPH are probably a good bet out of the west-northwest as a
surface trough axis passes by. Given the well-above-average
warmth (perhaps pushing March 25th record territory at Grand
Island/Hastings), fire weather could be a legitimate concern.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
Of all upcoming days, the greatest uncertainty in high
temperatures revolves around Thursday, as we could again be well
into the 80s if a well-defined cold front arrives later in the
day (as the latest ECMWF suggests), but conversely could be only
reach the 60s (at most) if the front arrives during the morning
(as the latest GFS suggests). Not surprisingly, our official
forecast is a "middle ground" with most areas aimed into the
70s. No matter when the front arrives, it will likely be
accompanied by north-northeast winds gusting at least 35
MPH...again making fire weather a definite concern.
Precipitation-wise, our latest forecast has somewhat-increased
precip chances for mainly Thurs night, as especially the GFS
suggests a quick hit of light rain and possibly even snow...but
this is FAR from a sure thing. On Friday, a dry forecast returns
along with cooler temperatures...highs only aimed into the low-
mid 50s. It should also be less-windy than Thursday.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Although the ECMWF hints at some spotty rain potential on
Saturday, our official forecast remains dry, which appears
reasonable for now given limited forcing/lift aloft. Of higher
confidence is that we`ll see another warm-up, with highs
bouncing back up to around 60 on Saturday and then 70s for
Sunday. Both days also look rather breezy out of the south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast to retain despite broken to overcast
cloud bases a majority of the day Monday. The gusty northerly winds
this evening are expected to soon lighten and later become
light and variable across the early Monday morning hours. Wind
directions will turn towards the south for the day Monday with
winds picking up across the later morning to early afternoon
hours. Winds will mainly stay between 15-20kts with gusts
occasionally as high as 25-30kts possible through the
afternoon. There is a non-zero chance for light rain and/or
sprinkles between 14 and 18z. Confidence is not high enough to
include outside of a Prob30 mention (20-25% chance).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Unfortunately, other than some small chances for light
precipitation mainly centered around Monday and perhaps Thursday
night, the vast majority of these next 7 days appear dry. As a
result, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are
likely nearly every afternoon within our forecast area (CWA),
with at least a few days probably also eventually featuring
outright-critical conditions for at least parts of our CWA.
However, at least for now (key words "for now"), our official
forecast does not particularly highlight any potentially
critical days (perhaps Thursday being of overall-most concern?),
but the "finer details" of wind speeds/relative humidity (RH)
are notoriously difficult to pin down more than 2 days in
advance...so later forecasts will need closely monitored for
if/when confidence increases in any potential critical days.

Following is a rundown of where fire weather concerns currently
stand within our CWA, exclusively focused on the next four days
(Mon-Thurs):

- MONDAY:
At the very least, near-critical conditions are
probable...especially within the western half of our forecast
area, where there will likely be an overlap of south-southeast
winds gusting at least 20-30 MPH and RH falling to at least
20-25%. The overall-most-concerning combination of strongest
winds (gusts 30+ MPH) and lowest relative humidity (right around
20%) appears to favor our western-most counties of Dawson,
Gosper, Furnas, Phillips and Rooks...where marginally-critical
fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out. Opted against
issuing any formal Watches/Warnings for these western-most
counties this afternoon given some question marks on how low
relative humidity might actually get (especially if clouds are
thicker/linger longer into the afternoon), but upcoming night
shift may need to consider issuing something...especially if
potentially-critical conditions start looking a bit more likely
to occur.

- TUESDAY:
Temperatures start warming back up (highs back into the 70s),
and breezy winds continue...this time more out the south. At
least for now, our official forecast keeps wind gusts under 25
MPH and keeps RH above 20% for most of our CWA. However, this
forecaster is a bit concerned that our wind speed forecast might
still be at least 5 MPH too low...so Tuesday is certainly not
"out of the woods" from possible critical conditions in later
forecasts.

- WEDNESDAY:
This day keeps trending warmer...and is pretty clearly the
overall-warmest day of the next 7 with high temps now projected
well into the 80s most places, and even a few low 90s in far
south-southwest counties. Given this warmth, confidence is high
that RH will be critically-low (at least 15-20%), but like
Tuesday, our current wind forecast keeps west-northwesterly
gusts under 25 MPH. However, once again, in all reality our wind
forecast is probably not high enough. If speeds trend up 5-10
MPH in later forecasts, this could be another day with critical
conditions.

- THURSDAY:
Although still plenty of details to sort out, Thursday is
probably trending toward being more of a day of concern for
potentially-critical conditions. Although there is quite a bit
of uncertainty in how warm/cool it might be (and thus
uncertainty in how low RH gets), there is increasing confidence
that a fairly strong cold front will pass through...kicking up
north-northeast winds to 35+ MPH. However, it is still unclear
whether this front passes through earlier or later in the day.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
  overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
  of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion