32°F
Updated:
11/9/2025
4:58:21pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
998 FXUS63 KOAX 091901 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 101 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frigid temperatures persist through Monday, with morning wind chills in the single digits and afternoon highs in the 30s to low 40s. - A gradual warm-up is expected this week, with highs climbing into the 50s and 60s, potentially reaching 70 by Friday and Saturday. - Dry weather is expected to prevail through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Tonight and Tomorrow... A frigid November afternoon is underway as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes region, bringing meridional flow aloft locally. The resulting cold air advection has kept high temperatures locked in the 30s, roughly 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Blustery northerly winds, gusting up to 30 mph, are driving wind chills into the teens and 20s. High pressure will build overhead this evening and tonight, easing winds and clearing skies. The combination of calm conditions and minimal cloud cover will allow temperatures to tumble into the teens, with a few single-digit readings possible across northeast NE. Morning wind chills will remain in the single digits across much of the area, with values approaching zero in northeast NE. Another chilly day is expected Monday, with afternoon highs only reaching the mid 30s to mid 40s. Tuesday and Beyond... By Tuesday, a mid-level ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest will begin to build into the central Plains. This pattern shift will bring a return to zonal to northwesterly flow aloft, allowing temperatures to moderate. Highs will rebound into the 60s for most areas on Tuesday, with temperatures generally holding in the mid 50s to mid 60s through the rest of the week. Some spots may even hit 70 on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will remain slightly above seasonable values, ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. The week overall looks quiet and dry, with limited potential for impactful weather. While a brief shortwave could bring isolated light precipitation at some point, most areas will stay dry. The primary thing to watch will be fire weather concerns, though no day currently stands out as particularly dry and windy. The next chance for widespread precipitation appears late next weekend, as a mid- to upper-level trough break down the ridge and pushes a cold front through the region. However, long-range guidance continues to show notable differences in the timing and intensity of the system. For now, 15-25% PoPs are carried Saturday night into Sunday, with higher chances to the south and east. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A deck of MVFR ceilings continues to overspread eastern Nebraska late this morning, impacting KOFK and KLNK. Ceilings will continue to scatter and improve, with a return to VFR conditions expected at all terminals by 18-20Z. Gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue, with afternoon gusts up to 25 kts before gradually calming under 12 kts after 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
584 FXUS63 KGID 092048 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 248 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - With clear skies and decreasing/calm winds, the coldest lows of the season (teens) are anticipated early Monday morning. - After a modest warm-up on Monday (40s), unseasonably warm temperatures return Tuesday afternoon (66-72F), and the 60s and 70s should continue through the end of the work week. - Dry weather is anticipated all week with the next chance (20%) for some light rain anticipated by Saturday night or Sunday. High confidence in warm and dry conditions through Friday, then significant uncertainty with next weekends forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Tonight... The recent NBM runs have come up a few degrees with expected low temperatures tonight, but are probably too warm given change in airmass, large departure from recent weather, and near ideal radiational cooling set up expected tonight. Therefore, blended with previous forecast and lowered expected low temperatures tonight below latest NBM guidance. Lows in the teens tonight and even lower teens northwest of the Tri-Cities will be the coldest air so far this season. Monday... This will be a transition day as the winds turn back around out of the south and warmer air begin flowing into the region. However, with such a cold start Monday morning, we are expected to only make it into the 40s for highs in what is a tightly clustered/higher confidence NBM forecast. Tuesday through Friday... An upper level ridge will develop over the western United States and slide east into the plains as we head through the forecast period resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions. The NBM temperature spread is pretty tightly clustered through Friday indicating good confidence in 60s to even lower 70 degree highs. Precipitation chances through Friday are also near zero. Saturday into Sunday... The next storm system will likely be a large upper trough that could become a cut off low that will eventually eject into the high plains as early as Saturday or Sunday. There are significant model differences between the major long range models and their numerous ensemble members. The middle 50% of the model ensembles have an almost 20 degree high temperature spread between them indicating high uncertainty. Most of the uncertainty centers around the timing, track, and strength of the next storm system. There will likely be a storm system tracking across the plains, but the questions are does it track across the central plains or the southern plains? Will it wrap up into a strong closed low, or remain open and more progressive? Will the timing be faster (Saturday) or slower (Sunday). Right now given significant uncertainty the precipitation chances are low (20%). The 12Z GFS indicating snow for our forecast area next weekend is a significant outlier with only 1 out of 30 12Z GEFS ensemble members showing a similar solution. The 00Z ECMWF ensembles were also universally warmer and indicating rain if anything next weekend. However, the latest 12Z ECMWF ensembles now have around 10 percent of the ensemble members indicating the possibility for snow in our area next weekend. So we may have to keep an eye on next weekend`s temperature and precipitation forecast, but right now only a few outliers give us much to worry about. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Skies have cleared out and should remain clear or at least mostly clear throughout the remainder of the TAF valid period. Can not completely rule out a few high transient clouds. Breezy north northwest winds this afternoon will quickly die down around sunset and will become light and variable prior to dawn on Monday. When the wind starts back up later Monday morning it will be out of the south southwest. This is a very high confidence (>80%) VFR TAF. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely
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