Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

518
FXUS63 KOAX 060728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
228 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend with
  highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

- Warmer weather expected for the work week with highs back in
  the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into Tuesday
  (30-60% chance). A few of these could be on the stronger side.
  Additional low-end chances (around 25%) continue through the
  rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Early morning analysis showed a cutoff low over east-central
Ontario with the upper level trough axis just east of the
forecast area. At the surface, high pressure was building in and
leading to a fairly quiet and cool night, with temperatures as
of 2 AM in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few pieces of guidance
suggest we could see some patchy fog this morning, mainly in
southeast NE and southwest IA, but model soundings suggest winds
aloft should be just strong enough to keep it from becoming too
widespread. Otherwise it`ll be a quiet and cool day with highs
in the mid 60s to lower 70s, evening temps in the 50s, and
overnight lows mostly in the 40s, though a few spots could dip
into the upper 30s. Sunday will be similarly quiet with high
pressure still in control, but low level flow will become
southeasterly on the back side of the departing high and give us
a few more degrees (highs mostly in the 70s).

Heading into next week, guidance favors the development of
upper level ridging over the central CONUS which should lead to
some warmer weather through the week. Expect upper 70s to mid
80s by Tuesday. That said, we will have some off and on shower
and storm chances as various bits of shortwave energy slide
through the ridging, which could affect temperatures on a given
day.

The first chances will arrive late Sunday night into early
Monday as a shortwave currently over NV will start to approach
the area with a surface low pushing through SD. This will induce
strengthening low level moisture transport that will gradually
edge into the area through the day with a warm front pushing
northeast. By Monday afternoon/evening, guidance is in decent
agreement that we`ll have a plume of mid 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints sitting across central into eastern NE with 1000-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE, certainly enough for some thunderstorm
development as moisture transport starts to point more directly
into our area and the shortwave pushes through. In addition,
deep layer shear around 30 kts with decent low level hodograph
curvature could be just enough to yield a few stronger storms to
an isolated severe storm. Still some details to work out with
potential for early morning precip/cloud cover and timing of the
shortwave, but Monday is worth keeping a bit of an eye on. For
what it`s worth, various machine learning severe weather
algorithms suggest a 5-15% chance of severe weather.

This precip should exit by mid-day Tuesday with most guidance
favoring a dry Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Additional bits
of shortwave energy then look to pass through Thursday into next
weekend. Unfortunately, there is quite a bit of model spread on
timing and strength of these various systems, so forecast
confidence is fairly low. For now, have off and on 20-30%
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A shallow bank of mid-level clouds at FL080 interrupts an otherwise
quiet evening, with wind speeds having died to near zero. The weaker
wind speeds have signaled an increasing chance for very patchy
fog, with short-term models targeting western Iowa with any
visibility reductions, with a 30% chance of them reaching the
KOMA terminal from 09-14z. Otherwise, northwesterly winds at
less than 10 kts should hold through the period until they begin
shifting northeasterly after 00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

371
FXUS63 KGID 060509
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances return Monday (15% to near 25%) into
  Monday night (15% to near 45%).

- After Monday night, rain and storm chances return Wednesday
  night (15% to around 25%) into Thursday (around 15%).

- Gradually warming temperatures are expected Saturday (60s
  and 70s) through Tuesday (80s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Today through Saturday night...

An upper trough centered over Canada extends southward over most of
the central and eastern of the U.S. Winds across south central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of
the northwest at around 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts at some
places. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s
with partly cloudy to cloudy skies. Winds will be light and
variable tonight with clearing skies. These conditions will
result in temperatures dropping into the 40s tonight and
possibly into the upper 30s for areas in central Nebraska.

Winds will be somewhat variable from around 5 to 10 mph on Saturday
with temperatures warming up into the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s.
Winds will mostly be out of the east at 5 mph or less Saturday
night. A surface high will be centered over northeast Nebraska. Low
temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday
night.

Sunday through Monday night...

The upper trough will continue over most of the central and eastern
part of the country on Sunday with a surface high centered over Iowa
and northern Missouri. Surface winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas will strengthen some
(between 5 to 15 mph) out of the southeast to south Sunday
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm with highs
in the lower to mid/upper 70s on Sunday. A shortwave passing over
the area Sunday night may result in showers and thunderstorms
(around 15% chance). Low temperatures Sunday night are expected to
be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Rain and storm chances (15% to 20%)
will linger on Monday across portions of the forecast area as the
shortwave moves southeastward. High temperatures on Monday are
expected to get up to the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures
Monday night will range from the mid/upper 50s to the low/mid 60s
with southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph. Rain and storm chances (up to
around 40%) increase Monday night mainly from Highway 281 eastward.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Winds will mainly be out of the south on Tuesday with temperatures
warming up into the low to mid/upper 80s. Low temperatures Tuesday
night will mainly be in the low to mid 60s. An upper trough will be
over most of the western part of the country on Wednesday. Winds on
Wednesday will be out of the south to southeast with high
temperatures similar to the previous day. Low temperatures Wednesday
night will be around a couple degrees higher than the previous
night. There is a 15% to around 25% chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night. High temperatures on Thursday will be
similar to those on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable
winds continue through the evening hours on Saturday, eventually
settings at easterly by the end of the TAF period. Clear skies
are expected for the most part outside of a few passing high
clouds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion