Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

266
FXUS63 KOAX 042315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer Sunday with highs in the 60s.

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued
  precipitation chances for much of the upcoming week. Rain
  could mix with or change over to all snow on Monday and
  Tuesday mornings with some minor accumulations possible.

- Very high fire danger is forecast in northeast Nebraska
  Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures warm into the 60s and
  70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Rest of this afternoon through Sunday:

Early-afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level low
over MN with an associated vorticity lobe pivoting through the
base of the low across the mid MO Valley. Latest CAM guidance
suggests that forcing for ascent associated with that feature
may be sufficient to support a few low-topped showers this
afternoon, mainly in west-central IA. Otherwise, strong
northwest winds with gusts up to 35-40 mph will continue this
afternoon before decreasing this evening, along with cloud
cover.

A downslope-enhanced, warm-advection pattern develops on Sunday
with highs mainly in the 60s.


Sunday night through Tuesday:

A northwest flow pattern will prevail in the mid levels with a weak
disturbance glancing the region to the north on Tuesday. In the
low levels, a cold front will move through the area Sunday night
with a cooler air mass overspreading the area Monday into Tuesday
when highs in the 40s and 50s are forecast.

A strengthening band of mid-level frontogenesis will support
increasing precipitation chances late Sunday night into Monday night
with the highest PoPs of 40-60% forecast late Monday night. By
Tuesday into Tuesday night, the glancing influence of the weak
disturbance mentioned above coupled with strengthening low/mid-level
warm advection will maintain a chance of measurable
precipitation with the highest PoPs of 40-55% forecast Tuesday
afternoon.

The potential will exist for rain to mix with snow or change over to
all snow at some locations on Monday and Tuesday mornings with some
minor accumulations possible. The 06z runs of the EPS and GEFS do
indicate up to a 40-50% chance for one inch accumulations through
Tuesday morning with a 5-10% chance of minor travel impacts.


Tuesday night through Friday:

Latest global models depict a significant mid/upper-level low
tracking through the Canadian Prairie Provinces Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with an associated belt of mid-level height
falls overspreading the north-central CONUS. Gusty south to
southwest winds are forecast to develop on Wednesday ahead of a cold
front, which is projected to move through the mid MO Valley on
Wednesday night into Thursday. The south winds will advect a warmer
air mass into the region ahead of the front with Wednesday`s highs
in the 60s and 70s. The warm temperatures in conjunction with
relative humidity reductions to 25-30% will result in very high
fire danger in northeast NE. 20-40% PoPs will be maintained
Tuesday night and Wednesday with increasing chances for a few
storms Wednesday night with the arrival of the front.

On Thursday into Thursday night, a low-amplitude disturbance is
forecast to move through the region and combine with the surface
front in the vicinity to support a good chance of showers and a
few thunderstorms with 40-60% PoPs Thursday increasing to
60-70% Thursday night. The forecast will indicate continued high
PoPs into Friday; however, some recent model guidance suggests
that the front could push south of the area Friday, reducing
precipitation chances. There is a small signal in some machine-
learning guidance for an isolated severe weather threat along
the front Thursday and/or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with diminishing
3500-5000 ft clouds this evening. Winds will remain
northwesterly, gusting 20-30 kts early in the period before
dropping below 10 kts overnight. Latest guidance has trended
toward some slightly stronger winds Sunday afternoon, with hints
of 18-25 kt gusts by around 20Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

044
FXUS63 KGID 042320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this
  afternoon generally west and southwest of the Tri-Cities area.

- The next chance of precipitation (15%-30%) is on Monday with
  various chances through the end of the forecast.

- The highest chance (60%-75%) of precipitation (showers and
  storms) is Thursday night into Friday.

- There are large uncertainties with high temperatures on
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends
over Nebraska and Kansas. Gusty, northwest winds are across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High
temperatures today will range from the 40s to the 60s but winds will
make it feel cooler. Near critical fire weather conditions are
expected this afternoon (west of the Tri-Cities area) with minimum
humidity values of around 22% - 26% across western portions of the
area and wind gusts of 20-30+ MPH. Winds will be light out of the
northwest and west tonight with clear skies and temperatures cooling
into the 20s and 30s.

Winds will transition from the west to north northwest on Sunday but
will be much lighter than today. The area will be in between 2
surface lows on Sunday which will allow for temperatures to warm up
into the 60s and 70s. Winds will transition to the east northeast
Sunday night with low temperatures a little warmer than the previous
night but still in the 20s and 30s. Cooler air will move into the
area from the northeast on Monday with high temperatures expected to
generally range from the 40s to the 60s. Some light rain showers may
develop (15%-30% chance) mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities on
Monday with an increase in atmospheric lift. Winds will transition
to the east and southeast Monday night with precipitation (rain
possibly mixed with snow) possible (15% - 40% chance). Low
temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the 20s and 30s
(cooler than the previous night).

Enhanced upper lift will move over the area on Tuesday. This along
with southeasterly winds may result in increased cloud cover and
moisture. Drizzle along with light rain/light snow will be possible
on Tuesday (30% to near 60% chance) with any snow being in the
morning hours. There are uncertainties in how long the cloud cover
and moisture will remain over the area on Tuesday which has lead to
uncertainties in high temperatures. As of now, expecting high
temperatures on Tuesday to range from the low 50s to low 70s
although some places across the north may not get out of the 40s.
Winds will increase out of the south to southwest Tuesday night
which will result in warmer low temperatures. At this time,
expecting lows to mostly be in the 40s.

An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Wednesday sending a cold front southward. Temperatures are expected
to warm up on Wednesday ahead of the cold front but there are some
uncertainties in regards to how warm it will get. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold
front will move into the area on Thursday with quite a bit of
uncertainty in high temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop associated with this front. High uncertainty in
regards to temperatures continues into Friday along with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms (50% to 75% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just a
few passing mid level clouds early on and diminishing winds
this evening as the surface winds decouple and an area of
surface high pressure moves in from the west. Winds will
increase out of the west a bit during the midday hours Sunday,
but with a weak pressure gradient, should remain around 12 KTS
or less...with a few higher gusts due to modest mixing to near
700 MB during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion