83°F
Updated:
5/31/2026
1:49:22pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
583 FXUS63 KOAX 311723 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1223 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional storms expected overnight tonight into Sunday. Potential for isolated damaging winds and large hail. - A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. - Potential for hotter temperatures next weekend and beyond, with daily chances for showers and storms continuing through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 A line of storms has moved into southeast Nebraska this evening, associated with a trough axis stretching from Oregon east across Nebraska. These storms are moving into an environment with weaker shear though with sufficient elevated instability for hail up to quarter-size. 00Z CAMs have come in predicting this line will mostly dissipate over the next few hours, with redevelopment as the trough axis arrives closer to 1-3am over northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. Again, we could see some damaging wind and hail threat, but with limited shear the severe weather potential should remain low. Storms should mostly clear our area after daybreak on Sunday. Mid-level dry air advecting in should limit coverage of additional showers and storms through the day on Sunday as we stay in a fairly baroclinic pattern near the nose of a jet streak stretching from central California east into western Nebraska. This jet streak shifts north on Monday as we start to see ridging build up over the Central US. As high pressure builds we see precip chances drop off and clearing skies on Monday. Moisture streams up the west side of the ridge, generating showers and storms across western Nebraska and Kansas on Monday evening, developing into an MCS. Confidence is low on how this convective complex will evolve and track this far out, but we could see some potential storms overnight Monday night into early Tuesday if it tracks east into our area. As we go into next week, we see the west-east trough axis from Sunday cut off, holding in place and spinning, forcing ridge development to shift eastward into midweek. Tuesday, the evening storm development sets up across Central Kansas and Nebraska with potential for an overnight MCS tracking into our area from this development. Wednesday-Thursday the ridge shifts far enough east that the belt of moisture sets up over our area. This means afternoon/evening storm development over our area. Toward the end of the week we see a potent jet streak and upper-level trough push into the PacNW. This finally forces troughing over the Intermountain West eastward, dampening the ridge and forcing it eastward over the Tennessee Valley. We`ve seen an interesting shift in the pattern going into next weekend from previous forecasts, now seeing ridging set up farther north going into next weekend with southwesterly flow setting up over the Central Plains. If this occurs, while we will still see significant warming with temperatures likely climbing into at least the upper 80s-low 90s, storm chances will continue going into next weekend with some potential for severe weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 VFR conditions have returned to the area as low clouds have pushed northeast. Expect these conditions to persist with the exception of a chance at reduced visibility during heavy rain with the threat of thunderstorms at KOMA between 03Z and 05Z Monday. Expect the other two TAF sites to remain dry. Southerly winds will become light and variable overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Nicolaisen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
835 FXUS63 KGID 311751 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1251 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/storms continue overnight through the mid morning hours. Small hail is possible in the strongest storms. - Highs in the upper 70s to 80s on today with the best chances for afternoon/evening showers/storms east of the forecast area. - Scattered thunderstorm chances return Monday evening/night. A few of these storms could be strong-severe. Off and on chances for storms continue through the end of the forecast period with highs generally in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Today... The band of thunderstorms that brought damaging wind gusts to southwestern portions of the area has exited northeastern portions of the area. Behind this band, two clusters of storms are ongoing over the area. The first is across Osborne and Mitchel counties in Kansas where weak shear is keeping storms sub-severe despite CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg. Storms will remain pulse-y with cores quickly strengthening and weakening. Small hail is possible in these storms. Another concern with these storms is continued locally heavy rainfall given the potential for multiple rounds of storms (training) with PWAT values around 1.5". Over time this cluster will gradually shift east/northeast out of the area. Another cluster of showers/storms is developing across Lincoln/Custer/Dawson counties. These showers/storms are expected to shift east across portions of Nebraska through the early morning hours. Lower instability over Nebraska should limit the strength of these storms, though a stronger core could briefly produce small hail. These showers/storms are expected to move east of the forecast area by the mid-late morning hours (~10am). Skies clear from west to east during the daytime hours, though low stratus may linger across eastern portions of the area into the afternoon. Winds start the day southerly but shift to the west/southwest behind a dryline. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s warmest in the west where skies clear the soonest. Models indicate that the best chances for precipitation are east of the area, closer to the NE/IA border. If a storm were to form in the area this afternoon, it would be most likely to impact locations along Highway 81, though the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening is currently dry. Southwesterly flow sits over the area on Monday with a low over the west/Rockies and a ridge over the Midwest. Highs on Monday climb into the 80s under partly cloudy skies. The next disturbance associated with western troughing brings the next chance for rain to the area. Storms are favored to develop over Western NE/KS and move into the area during the evening hours. Of note/focus is the potential for an MCS to develop across portions of central/northern Kansas which would carry an overall higher threat for damaging wind gusts. Details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as we move deeper into the range of Hi-res model guidance. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with highs generally in the 80s and off an on chances for showers/storms (mainly evening-overnight). Details on any severe chances will be come clearer as we get closer in time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Looks like it will be fairly active across the local area this evening as CU is just starting to get agitated along the dryline across southwestern Kansas. Despite fairly marginal shear, this CU will be moving into an area of increased (and very strong) instability which will help fuel explosive growth as they track northward towards the local area. This will most likely favor some large hail and strong wind gust potential as the storms expand and merge, but if a few storms are able to remain discrete, an isolated tornado (as advertised by SPC) will also be possible across our local area. This activity across southwestern Kansas this afternoon is only one area of concern, and a separate area of convection is anticipated to develop across the high plains to our west in response to an upper level low rotating across northern Colorado. Eventually, these two clusters of storms may merge across the local area by mid to late evening as it lifts northeast of the area overnight. As these lines of storms merge, the main threat should transition to strong winds late tonight, with some possible sub-severe redevelopment hinted at in its wake during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Thereafter...the main upper level low will then lift north toward Montana by Sunday afternoon, with a weak west southwesterly flow steering addition weak disturbances across the local area as we go through the upcoming work week. While Sunday afternoon/evening looks fairly quiet, this will result in periodic, mainly evening/night-time chances for thunderstorms across the local area, along with seasonably warm temperatures through the end of the extended periods. Overall, the best shot for some severe weather appears to be with the late afternoon and evening convection today, but cannot rule out more isolated chances for strong or severe storms later in the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period. Expect the BKN cloud deck near 5KFT this afternoon to continue to erode over the next couple of hours, with mostly sunny skies anticipated for the remainder of the afternoon. Could see some mid level clouds near 15 KFT spill across the area during the overnight and morning hours Monday, but these should have little impact. VSBYs are anticipated to be good and winds less than 10 KTS through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi
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