36°F
Updated:
11/6/2025
01:24:00am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
657 FXUS63 KOAX 060518 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions are expected the next couple of days. - Our next best chance for rain, possibly mixing with a few snowflakes will be Saturday. - Cold temperatures return to the area Saturday through Monday, with lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chills in the single digits in some areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 The forecast period begins with northwest flow over the region and a mid-upper level ridge over the Central High Plains. Winds have decreased over the past several hours, remaining out of the north in most locations. Cooler air continues to advect into the region, bringing a noticeable impact with temperatures. Expected highs will range from the mid to upper 50s. An isolated 60 cannot be ruled out. Heading into the overnight hours, high pressure moves to the east and an area of low pressure develops over Canada with a shortwave trough moving across the Central High Plains. Cloud cover over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will increase as the low lifts to the northeast, particularly for areas along and north of Hwy 92. The tightening pressure gradient will result in an uptick in winds out of the south overnight. This coupled with the increase in cloud cover over northern Nebraska may help mitigate some radiational cooling, and keep overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Thursday, the trough continues moving across Central and Eastern Nebraska into Iowa. South winds will remain gusty (25-35mph) through around mid-afternoon as the trough crosses the region. Southerly winds will usher in some warmer air, helping temperatures rebound into the low to mid-60s for highs and the low to mid-40s for lows. Friday, the trough will exit the region, with northwest flow setting up over the Great Plains. Temperatures will warm slightly, with highs ranging from the low to mid-60s for areas along and north of I- 80 and a few upper 60s for areas along the Kansas and Missouri borders. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded in the larger trough, will slide southeast from Alberta Friday morning into the western Dakotas by Saturday morning. 850mb temperatures show colder air pushing into the region by around mid-day, keeping high temperatures for the day in the 40s and 50s. For some locations, this may result in high temperatures occurring in the late morning/early afternoon. The system will have some Pacific moisture with it, bringing some low end (20-30%) chances for rain late Friday night/early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Better chances (30-50%) are currently forecast for areas along the Nebraska/Iowa border. The current p-type is mainly rain; however, areas in the northern part of the CWA may have the colder air move in soon enough to cool things down to where a rain/snow mix might be possible for a few locations. This will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days. The chilly air remains over the region Sunday as a ridge amplifies over the western CONUS and the trough remains over the Eastern CONUS and the Great Plains. Lows are currently forecasted to be in the upper teens to mid-20s Sunday morning. Expected high temperatures will struggle into the 30s for many, with a few low 40s possible toward our southeastern counties. Monday morning will be in the mid- teens to low 20s for lows with wind chill values in the single digits and teens. Monday, we see a shift in the pattern as northerly flow transitions to northwesterly and the trough shifts east. Expect a gradual warm up into mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing mid to high level clouds. Expect southeasterly winds under 10 kts overnight with some low level wind shear overspreading the area by 11Z (40-45 kt winds at 1500 ft agl). Surface winds will pick up toward mid morning with gusts of 20-30 kts into late afternoon. Winds will then become more southwesterly to westerly into the evening with speeds gradually decreasing. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...CA
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
475 FXUS63 KGID 060600 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather pattern with mostly near to above normal temperatures continues for the next 7-8 days, at least. - Exceptions to this will be a slight chance for light precipitation, mainly over central Nebraska, Saturday morning with a cold front that will lead to a sharp, but relatively brief, cool down for Sunday and Monday. - The only real "hazardous weather" to speak of will be strong NW winds gusting 35-45+ MPH during the day on Saturday. This could lead to elevated fire weather concerns, as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 Shaping up to be a nice late afternoon and early evening given nearly full sunshine and increasing high pressure that is allowing winds to lighten up. Temperatures as of 3PM are in the mid 50s to lower 60s, which is right around, or even a touch above, normal for this time of year. Clouds will gradually increase overnight ahead of our next weak upper disturbance and winds will turn more Srly, which will help to keep overnight lows largely above freezing. Modestly breezy S/SW winds should lead to warmer afternoon high temperatures on Thursday, likely in the 60s area wide, and perhaps even some low 70s far W/SW. "Feels like" conditions may actually be fairly similar to today, though, given the breeze and continued high level sky cover. A weak cold front associated with aforementioned upper disturbance (embedded within relatively active/fast zonal/NW flow) will swing through the area Thu eve/night. This is a Pacific-based system with not a lot of punch to it, so temperatures will actually be quite similar on Friday as any cold air advection is offset to some degree by some downsloping component to WNW-NW winds. Afternoon will be a bit breezy, esp. N of I-80, but winds should decrease for the evening and most of the night. A stronger cold front and push of cooler air will arrive Saturday AM. Some models continue to indicate a low, but non- zero, chance for light rain showers/sprinkles late late Friday night into Saturday morning, mainly for areas N and E of the Tri-Cities. Forecast soundings continue to support all rain for our area as the deeper cold air, for us, will lag the precip by several hours. Dakotas into MN and N IA could be a different story. By far, though, the greatest weather impact from this system for us will be the widespread, strong NW winds. Latest NBM calls for 40-70+ percent chance for wind gusts >40 MPH, and 10-40 percent chance for gusts >50 MPH...with the highest range of chances being W through NW of the Tri-Cities. Would not at all be surprised to see a place like Ord see a few gusts in the low 50s. Elsewhere, should be mainly 35-50 MPH. Will likely be dealing with some lingering cloud cover/low level moisture through the day, which should help alleviate some fire weather concerns by keeping RHs mostly above 30 percent. However, still think areas along/SW of a Arapahoe to Osborne line will have at least elevated concerns with slightly lower humidities around 25 to 30 percent. Still looks like strongest sfc high pressure of the season thus far will move into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Timing could be favorable for peak radiational cooling (clear skies, light winds) and some of the coldest lows in quite some time. Official NBM has now dropped to 19F at Ord, but keeps Tri-Cities and S in the low to mid 20s. Will probably see these trend lower as details become clearer. Monday will remain chilly, but guidance remains in good agreement that seasonably mild air will return Tuesday through much of next week. In fact, could see at least a couple days with highs once again rising into the 60s to near 70s. There are some hints of a potentially cooler and perhaps more active pattern towards the 17th-20th, but obviously details are not possible this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period with increasing high clouds upstream of the area approaching the region late tonight. Expect southerly winds to remain steady near 10 KTS through the overnight hours...rapidly increasing after daybreak as the surface pressure gradient increases across the region ahead of the next disturbance. While there is evidence of a weak LLJ in model data, so far the VWP is not indicating and WS out there at the moment and expect any LLWS that develops to remain marginal, so did not introduce this into 6Z TAFs. Winds will likely gust to near 25KTS during the afternoon hours Thursday, diminishing from west to east ahead of a weak cold front late in the day. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...SR
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