Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

258
FXUS63 KOAX 140511
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1211 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting up to 30 to 45 mph at times this morning
  into the afternoon.

- Strong southerly winds will combine with dry fuels over
  northeast Nebraska to produce extreme fire conditions today
  with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10am-7pm.

- Periodic strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday
  evening through Monday, with the best chances Saturday,
  Sunday, and Monday afternoon/evenings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday through Thursday Night...

A ribbon of isentropic lift, seen on the 305K pressure surface, will
sweep across the forecast area Thursday morning with the passage of
a subtle warm front. CAMs have been fairly consistent in firing up a
line of elevated convection along this boundary Thursday morning.
However, showers and weak thunderstorms may have to contend with
quite a bit of dry air eating away the majority of their
precipitation before it reaches the surface.

Southerly winds will increase substantially behind the front
Thursday morning into the afternoon, as a deepening low shifts along
the central CONUS/Canadian border, tightening the pressure gradient.
Gusts as high as 30-45 mph will be possible, with highest speeds
over notably dry portions of northeast Nebraska. Minimum relative
humidity will fall to 20 to 30 percent Thursday afternoon as
temperatures rise into the 80s. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for susceptible portions of northeast Nebraska, where dry tall
grasses prevail, and dead vegetation below short green grass
continues to allow for rapid fire spread.

A shortwave disturbance will ripple through the region Thursday
evening, accompanied by a weak cold front, bringing lighter winds
back to the forecast area. A few models hint at the potential for
storms to fire near the front, over Central Kansas, and congeal into
a cluster, glancing the southern half of the CWA Thursday evening
into Thursday night. While deep layer moisture will likely be
lacking, weak instability and 30-40 kts of bulk shear could be
supportive of a severe gust and large hail.

Friday and Beyond...

Temperatures climb even higher Friday, ahead of the next
approaching shortwave. Highs are forecast to reach the low and mid
90s, however they could be hindered slightly by lingering convective
cloud cover. SPC keeps us highlighted in a Marginal to Slight Risk
for severe storms Friday evening, with the potential for storms to
develop along the cold front, progged to be near southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Large hail and gusty winds would again be
the primary threats.

The cold front lingering over the region will stall as a low
pressure system develops out of the southern Plains, Saturday.
While the exact position of this boundary will likely be
influenced by Friday evening`s convection, storms will likely
fire along it as instability pools in a pocket of 35-45 kts of
deep layer shear. Supercells capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds will again be possible.

An upper trough will dig into the northern Rockies Sunday, as the
Southern Plains low is pushed northeast. A strengthening LLJ will
drive severe storm development in the vicinity of the surface low
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some of the longer range models hint at another chance for severe
storms as the upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains
Monday afternoon and evening.

It is worth noting that lingering convection from Thursday night
could potentially effect storm chances Friday which in-turn would
ripple through chances over the weekend.  While Sunday and Monday
currently appear to be the best chance for strong to severe storms,
it would be best to keep an eye out for forecast updates if you have
outdoor plans this weekend.

Temperatures will dip closer to normal next week after a weekend in
the mid to upper 80s. An active pattern looks to continue through
the upcoming week with multiple chance for additional showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Light south to southeast winds will begin to increase in speed
tonight as a low pressure system begins to develop west of the
region. A few gusts are anticipated overnight. A low-level jet
will be in place over the area also. Most TAF sites should
remain below LLWS criteria, but OFK will remain near criteria
into the morning. Strong south surface winds develop across the
area by morning with peak gusts of 30 to 35 kts likely during
the afternoon. Winds will begin to weaken late in the afternoon
and evening, but wind speeds remain elevated. During the
afternoon and evening, increasing mid-level and high-level cloud
cover is anticipated, though cloud bases should remain above 10
kft.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

308
FXUS63 KGID 140835
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
335 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday and
  Friday, but generally isolated coverage with lower end
  precipitation probabilities (10-20%).

- Increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend, primarily
  Saturday evening/night (40-60%) and Sunday evening/night
  (40-60%). At least a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
  Precipitation is not a sure bet, but is our best chance this
  week. Hot weekend (mid 80s and 90s).

- Cold front swings through sometime on Monday. 70s behind the
  front, upper 80s/90 ahead of the front. Precipitation chances
  slide east of our area.

- Fire weather concerns still possible this weekend behind/west
  of the dry line, might impact our far western zones depending
  on dry line location near our western most counties.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Today...
Will finally get 50 degree dew points to advect north into our
forecast area today resulting in increasing instability (SB CAPE
>2000 J/KG over Kansas). However, there will be a rather strong
cap and likely inadequate forcing to produce much convection
given the strength of the cap. Can not rule out some elevated
showers above the cap, but widespread precipitation is unlikely
and thus the lower end 10-20% rain chances. Interesting curved
hodographs across our southeastern zones that would favor
supercells, but again the cap will likely really limit
convection.


Friday...
There will again be a pretty strong cap, but we may get hot
enough (highs in the 90s) to break the cap with some isolated
late day thunderstorms. Again, coverage will likely be sparse,
but those that can catch a storm could quickly pick up
appreciable rainfall as the winds in the vertical profile are
light and these storms will not move very fast. Best chances
(still only 20%) favor our eastern and southern zones. SB CAPE
values of 2000-3000 J/KG support marginal to slight risk area
over our southeastern zones despite weak low level shear
profile. Main threats will be hail and wind.


Saturday and Sunday...
There is still a lot of uncertainty with the precipitation
forecast, but the overall pattern is finally more favorable for
a potential widespread appreciable rainfall event given the
expected strength of the developing western United States upper
trough and increasing low level moisture (60 plus dew points).
We just need to see where the frontal boundaries (dry line and
warm front) will set up and if we can finally overcome the cap
given better forcing as the upper trough nears our area. Better
chances for thunderstorms will be during the late evening and
overnight hours as the low level jet ramps up. Afternoon heating
could get the storms to initially fire and then the low level
jet could help to sustain them. It currently appears that both
wind shear (>50kts) and instability (>3000 J/KG) will be rather
high this weekend making severe weather a possibility. Would not
be surprised to see the severe threat level increased as we get
closer and better iron out the most favored locations.

Models are currently confident (over 75% likelihood) in a
warm/hot weekend with highs in the 80s to around 90 on Saturday
and then 90s for Sunday.

Monday...
There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding cold frontal
passage timing resulting in a huge model temperature spread over
the Tri-Cities (25th and 75th percentile highs 71-96). Better
rain chances are expected to shift east with the
instability/front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A more active pattern is setting up as zonal flow transitions
and a trough sets up over the western half of the country this
weekend putting the Plains under southwesterly flow aloft.

Thursday-Friday:
Southerly surface level flow will be strong, beginning in the
overnight hours tonight and continue through Thursday. This will
help advect up higher dew point temperatures. Models are quick
with this moisture return, but there are some reservations as to
how far north the higher dew points will get. Along and ahead of
the front, some models indicate that there may be enough
moisture transport in a narrow corridor (aided by today`s
southerly winds over the High Plains) to support thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours. The current forecast is dry, but for
areas along and west of Highway 183, there is a 15-20% chance
for thunderstorms. Instability across the remainder of southern
Nebraska looks marginal at best, while the best conditions for
strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be across central and
eastern Kansas just to the east of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be warm for the end of the work week, but
current forecast highs could be slightly overdone and tried to
taper them down slightly with this forecast, especially where
low level moisture begins to increase across southern and
southeastern Nebraska.

Saturday - Monday:
The weekend also looks warm, with temps generally in the mid-
upper 80s. Confidence is low that the weekend, despite all the
rain chances, will be a rainout. The primary concern is that
many will not see much rain that the drought stricken area is
desperate for. There will be a number of weak waves ahead of the
main disturbance that looks to eject northeastward on Monday.
These weak waves will bring chances for precipitation and some
severe weather to the area for the weekend, the main time period
looks to be Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon and
overnight.

Uncertainty remains high in the central part of Nebraska/Kansas
for where the best low level moisture and surface front will be
and thus where thunderstorm activity will fire, especially on
Sunday. There is a chance that we could generally be quiet,
watching activity in Eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

This uncertainty persists for Monday with precipitation and
temperatures. If the front has moved through, it could be a much
cooler day than is currently indicated in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Moderately high confidence VFR conditions through the period
with strong LLWS to start and a small chance for a -SHRA or
-TSRA during the late afternoon through early evening hours.

Latest VWP continues to show 50 KT winds just 1KFT above the
ground with strong LLWS occurring at both terminals. Expect the
axis of this jet to shift east by daybreak, with surface winds
then increasing and gusting to around 30 KTS through the morning
hours before gradually diminishing from west to east around
midday. Expect an upper level disturbance late in the day to
then potentially provide enough forcing for a few -TSRAs as
depicted in some of the CAMs...with this activity diminishing by
15/03Z or so. That said, confidence in a -SHRA or -TSRA at
either terminal is low (~15%), so no mention was made in the
current TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Today... RH values will be higher (20-30%) and the stronger
winds (30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher
and then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon
as RH values fall into the 20-30% range.

Friday...
RH values will dip again generally around or below 20%
(especially western zones), but with lighter winds (20%) back into portions of our
region. One concern will be where the dry line sets up, which
could impact our far western counties. RH values west of the dry
line on Sunday could fall below 20%. With the stronger winds on
Sunday this could be a big fire weather concern for our far
western zones or areas just west of our forecast area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion