Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

085
FXUS63 KOAX 252231
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat settles over the region with temperatures approaching
  the mid-90s to low 100s. Heat related concerns are expected
  through at least Sunday with Monday also looking hot.

- There is a small chance (15-30%) of a few severe thunderstorms
  late tonight and again Sunday night/Monday morning. Damaging
  wind is the primary threat each time.

- Temps remain hot next week, but should be closer to typical
  summer averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A gray and gloomy start to the day betrayed those unfamiliar
with the forecast. Overcast skies and widespread fog have
cleared as heights have risen and temperatures have soared. By
1pm this afternoon, sunny skies have temps mostly in the
upper-80s with dewpoints generally about 10 degrees lower. I`ll
do the math for you... heat indices are mostly between 100 and
108F. With the light winds, you`ll have to manufacture your own
way to remain cool.

Temps tonight drop only into the lower to middle-70s, making it
difficult to cool homes with no A/C.

A cluster of thunderstorms (MCS) is expected to work west to
east through most of South Dakota this evening and may clip the
northern portions of northeast Nebraska. These storms should be
weakening as they approach the Iowa state line, but wind gusts
over 70 mph are possible (5-10%). Expect those storms to clip
the area after dark, but mostly before midnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sunday is looking like the safest bet for dangerous heat as the
EXTREME HEAT WARNING has been expanded for all areas north and
east of the Platte River as heat indices of 110F are forecast
there. The heat advisory chugs along elsewhere (105F+). Sunday
night`s temps will be even warmer than tonight`s with downtown
Omaha expected to hold a low near 80F.

More thunderstorms are possible on Sunday with the heat and
humidity producing plenty of instability (3000 J/kg). Some
model guidance produces a cluster or line of storms in eastern
South Dakota that dives southeast in the evening hours. The
NBM`s blend averaged those PoPs to near zero, but with an
increasing number of solutions coming on board just this morning,
I`ve added 15-30% PoPs back in and that may be a bit underdone,
tbh. Again, with temps as hot as they are, the primary threat
will be a wind one. (Hail would be quick to melt above the sfc
and high LCLs [6 kft] leave a plenty of time to evaporate some
of the rain and produce downdrafts.)

.MONDAY...

Monday`s forecast is just as warm as the others - at least for
the southern half of the area - but heat headlines are currently
not as widespread or as serious as confidence is lower. A deep
low pressure system sweeping across Canada will be dragging a
cold front across the Dakotas and perhaps into eastern Nebraska.
Deterministic models have been slowing its arrival time and
reducing its impacts, although the Canadian solution remains
progressive with the front. For this reason, have left the
northern 1/3 of the forecast area headline free for Monday.
FWIW, model guidance has backed off solutions that drove an MCS
through Iowa mid-day Monday which would have introduced its own
set of unknowns.

.TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Temperature forecasts remain hot for Tuesday and beyond, but
will be a significant step cooler than those of this weekend.
Expect highs to peak near 90F each day, just a couple of degrees
above seasonal norms. Dewpoints will be a step lower, too,
thanks to easterly sfc winds flowing around the sfc high
setting up north of the CWA.

Regular chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms return
to the forecast for Wednesday and beyond as monsoonal moisture
is pulled around the anti-cyclonic upper ridge. Thursday`s
chances currently stick out as the best odds for rain/thunder at
30-40%. A shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies would be the
one to thank if you`re the beneficiary of some needed moisture.

The ridging does look to rebound for next weekend. The Climate
Prediction Center`s 6-10 day temperature outlook does lean
warmer than normal for the area. (Days 8-14 do not!)

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the period with generally
calm southerly winds and mostly clear skies this evening. A
decaying thunderstorm complex is expected to push into northeast
Nebraska after 26/00Z. Confidence is low (20% chance) that this
complex will reach KOFK, though patchy showers and gusty winds
will be possible if the complex can hold together. Otherwise,
expect increasing upper-level cloud cover overnight at FL250.
After 26/18Z, southerly winds will increase to 12-15 kts and
gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ050-
     051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

302
FXUS63 KGID 260028
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
728 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...Updates to Key Messages, Short Term and Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After watching heat index "overachieve" today and given
  another round of at least 105-115 heat index expected Sunday,
  our entire forecast area has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat
  Warning valid through 9 PM Sunday.

- With Monday not looking quite as concerningly-hot, a Heat
  Advisory "takes back over" valid 9 PM Sunday-10 PM Monday.

- There is a low chance of storms (around 15%) for Sunday
  evening mainly in our Nebraska counties north of I-80 and/or
  west of Highway 281. A strong to marginally-severe storm
  cannot be ruled out...main threat is wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

- A somewhat better chance for at least scattered storms arrives
  mainly Monday afternoon-overnight...again a strong to
  marginally-severe storm is possible especially in our west.

- Closer to normal high temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) are
  expected Tuesday through Friday with various, intermittent rain
  and storm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

-- Regarding the UPGRADE from Heat Advisory to Extreme Heat
 Warning (valid through 9 PM Sunday) that occurred late this
 afternoon:

- Quite honestly, our heat index forecast for this afternoon
  ended up being a solid 5-15 degrees too low, with the majority
  of our CWA seeing at least a few hours of Warning-criteria
  values 110-120 (this is semi-rare territory for our area!).

- This was a classic case of essentially all available
  models/guidance failing to forecast high enough dewpoints...a
  common struggle this time of year when evapotranspiration
  from crops is peaking.

- Given this extreme heat lingering into early evening, limited
  overnight relief due to low temps holding up well into the
  70s, and most importantly another round of widespread 105-115
  heat index expected Sunday, it was decided along with a few
  neighboring offices to upgrade the Advisory to Warning
  effectively immediately and valid through 9 PM Sunday.

- Thereafter, a Heat Advisory "takes back over" from 9 PM Sunday
  through 10 PM Monday, as current expectations are for Monday
  to have lower potential for heat index to exceed 110 degrees,
  and MIGHT even struggle to reach 105 (especially in our north
  half) depending on possible weak convection in the area,
  associated clouds/outflow etc.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

An upper level ridge extends from Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas
northward to Kansas and Nebraska. Winds across north central Kansas
and south central and central Nebraska are mostly light and
variable. Winds are lighter than expected but may increase some out
of the south later this afternoon. Low-level moisture is hanging
around the area longer than expected today (with very little wind to
mix in drier air) with dewpoints mostly in the 70s and 80s. High
temperatures today are expected to reach the mid 90s to low triple
digits. These conditions have resulted in heat index values across
the area generally ranging from around 105 to near 120 degrees! A
Heat Advisory is in effect for the whole area and continues into
Monday evening. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
70s with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s. There is some
concern that dewpoint temperatures will be higher than what is
currently in the forecast, especially if drier air doesn`t move into
the area. This may lead to fog development as temperatures cool.
Winds will be fairly light (mainly between 5 to 10 MPH but may be
closer to 5 MPH) out of the south. These overnight conditions will
result in limited relief from the heat. If moisture is higher than
expected tonight, overnight lows may also be higher than what is in
the forecast.

The upper ridge will be more centered over the region on Sunday.
Winds will be a little stronger than the previous day Sunday
afternoon (southerly around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to around 25
MPH). Sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present. Temperatures
Sunday afternoon are expected to heat up to the mid/upper 90s to
around 105 degrees. The amount of moisture that will be present for
Sunday is still somewhat uncertain with the models not in agreement.
Based on the moisture hanging around longer than expected today,
tend to think that moisture values will be on the higher end.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly hotter than
today. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for Sunday. Low
temperatures for Sunday night will likely be slightly warmer than
the previous night with some isolated areas in north central Kansas
perhaps with lows around 80 degrees. There is a very slight (15% to
near 20% chance) of showers and storms Sunday evening across
northern portions of the area (mainly north of I-80). There is some
model disagreement on where these storms will occur but the main
risk with these storms will be wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Monday has the potential to be the hottest day but there is also a
lot of uncertainty with regards to temperature and moisture.
Generally expecting high temperatures to range from 97 to 103
degrees. Some of the hotter models have temperatures ranging from
around 105 to 110+ degrees! Tend to think these hotter temperatures
are not likely with a weak cold front with easterly winds expected
to begin moving into the area on Monday. The Heat Advisory ends at
10 PM Monday evening. Beginning Monday evening and continuing into
Friday, there are various chances of showers and storms across
portions of the area as shortwaves troughs move overhead. High
temperatures will be cooler beginning Tuesday with the arrival of a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Although cannot rule out visibility trying to at least briefly
drop to low-end VFR/maybe high-end MVFR anytime between 08-14Z
in light fog, this is otherwise a very high confidence VFR
forecast (along with dry weather), with only varying amounts of
passing mid-high level clouds. Given the aforementioned
potential for light fog, opted to "hint" with a low-end VFR
"6SM BR" visibility group early Sunday morning.

Winds will not be a significant issue as prevailing direction
remains southerly. However, Sunday afternoon will be a bit
breezier than today was, with sustained speeds commonly
10-14KT/gusts up to around 20KT. Prior to then, sustained speeds
this evening through Sunday morning will prevail under 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion