Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

639
FXUS63 KOAX 211048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds restrengthen this morning with gusts up to
  35-45 mph.

- The wind combined with minimum relative humidity of 25-35%
  will lead to increased wildfire concerns this afternoon in
  areas of ongoing harvest operations.

- Widespread frost and more localized freezing conditions are
  likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

- A chance (20-40% PoPs) of showers Thursday night into Friday
  across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Skies are clear this morning with west-northwesterly winds
starting to increase again over the last hour or two. Another
windy day in store for today. I`m not going to harp over why
again, just to say we have potential again for agricultural
fires this afternoon with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph and
humidity dropping to 25-30% across much of southeast Nebraska,
35 to 40 percent for far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa.
Highs will peak this afternoon in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A dynamic trough is moving across the region today keeping the
strong winds around through early this afternoon. As it slides
off to the east later today, the pressure gradient starts to
relax allowing winds to start to weaken. We`ll see winds drop
off mainly after 5 PM and continue to weaken through the
overnight hours.

As a ridge builds in on Wednesday we see winds become mostly
calm by Wednesday morning under clear skies. This will allow for
efficient radiational cooling with temperatures approaching
freezing across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Expect significant areas of frost to develop Wednesday morning,
especially across northeast Nebraska where temperatures will
drop to right around or even a degree or two below freezing.
With high pressure in place through the day on Wednesday, we`ll
see temperatures warm back into the 60s through the afternoon,
but another calm, clear night will lead to an even better chance
for widespread frost, potentially a freeze Thursday morning. The
NBM has only about a 20% chance for temperatures below freezing
Wednesday morning across northeast Nebraska, while on Thursday
morning this chance increases to around 50%.

Towards the end of the week we see the upper-level flow pick
back up a cut-off Low off the coast of southern California and
bring it inland into the Southern Plains. This will bring rain
chances to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Friday as we
may get clipped by the northern fringe of the shower and storm
activity associated with the passing Low to our south. Not
expecting anything severe, and there will likely be a sharp
cutoff of those who see rain and those who see nothing somewhere
south of I-80.

Another ridge brings high pressure back in over the weekend,
leading to quiet weather with seasonable temperatures Saturday
and Sunday. The next dynamic trough looks to arrive on Monday
bringing back a chance for showers and storms as well as strong
northwesterly winds behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through the TAF period.
Winds are already ramping up out of the west-northwest and will
turn more northwesterly as they continue to ramp up this
morning. We`ll see gusts 30 to 35kt through this afternoon, with
winds starting to weaken around 22-23Z this evening. Winds will
continue to weaken through tonight becoming light generally less
than 5kt towards the end of the TAF period 12Z Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

077
FXUS63 KGID 211141
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds, with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH, will
  combine with low relative humidity values to result in near
  critical fire weather concerns across the local area again
  this afternoon.

- As winds diminish across the area this evening, temperatures
  will plummet, and widespread frost formation is anticipated by
  Wednesday morning. A frost advisory goes into effect at 10 PM
  tonight and will continue through 10 AM Wednesday morning.
  Widespread frost will also be possible to start the day
  Thursday.

- A chance for rain and a few thunderstorms returns to the local
  area Thursday evening through Saturday morning. The focus of
  any precipitation will be across north central Kansas, with
  diminishing chances across south central Nebraska.

- A potentially stronger weather system could bring down some
  colder air early next week, along with some better
  precipitation chances late Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Steady westerly winds of 10-15 MPH continued across the local
area overnight, helping to keeps temperatures mostly in the 40s
despite clear skies. With an area of low pressure moving across
Minnesota, a fairly tight pressure gradient extends into central
Nebraska this morning, which should support another breezy/windy
start to the day once the sun comes up later this morning.

This area of low pressure is then forecast to track east
through the afternoon hours, with gradually diminishing winds
across the local area from west to east as a result. As we then
transition into the evening hours, winds should become very
light area-wide, and these light winds combined with clear skies
should allow temperatures to plummet early in the night, with
widespread frost formation anticipated by Wednesday morning.
While a few spots will likely fall below freezing early
Wednesday morning, guidance suggests this will be limited to
the typically coldest spots, and sided against a freeze
watch/warning at this time. That said, if guidance becomes just
a bit colder, a freeze warning may eventually be needed for
portions of the local area.

With weak ridging transitioning across the area aloft behind
this system, continued light winds and clear skies are expected
through Thursday morning, with another round of widespread
frost formation anticipated to start the day Thursday.
Thereafter...an upper level low moving from the four corners
region into the central/southern plains will begin to spread its
influence across the local area as early as Thursday evening,
bringing a return to some unsettled weather to at least parts of
the local area. Keeping in mind the track of this upper low
will determine shower/T-storm coverage, models have converged
their solutions and trended the track further south, which may
eventually mean much of south central Nebraska will be dry over
this period with just some scattered showers/a few t-storms
limited to our Kansas counties.

Behind this system a stronger/more organized upper level low is
anticipated to deepen across the central Plains early next week,
potentially pulling cooler air from the north on its backside
along with supporting more widespread showers/limited t-storm
coverage. Still plenty of time to hammer out the details of this
system, but ensembles indicate strong winds, cooler
temperatures (albeit still looking above freezing) and unsettled
weather may impact the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions expected at both terminals through
the period with clear skies and good VSBYs.

Looking at VWP this morning...strong LLWS can be seen across the
area and it is likely impacting KGRI and to a lesser extent
KEAR at this hour. This LLWS should diminish over the next hour
or two as surface winds increase...with NW winds near 25 KTS+
possible from the late morning through afternoon hours. Winds
should diminish around 22/02Z when they become light and
variable...with no expected repeat of LLWS tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion