Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

727
FXUS63 KOAX 302326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest
  potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations
  will be Friday night.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 20%) at
  times through this weekend. Highest potential will be this
  afternoon, Friday afternoon, and Sunday evening.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming
  into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a fair amount of cloud
cover across the area ahead of some shortwave energy spinning
across SD. There were also some light radar returns across
north-central into central NE, which could edge eastward into
our area this afternoon and give us a few sprinkles. Not
expecting any notable rainfall though. Some additional spotty
showers/sprinkles could develop into this evening and overnight,
but at the same time, surface high pressure will be building in
and should limit overall coverage. Otherwise, the main thing to
note tonight will be frost potential with temperatures dropping
into the lower to mid 30s, lowest across northeast NE. Ended up
issuing a Frost Advisory across most of eastern NE and into
west-central IA where formation looks most favorable. Farther
east, guidance suggests clouds may linger a little longer and
keep us a few degrees warmer. Still could see a couple hours of
patchy frost in low-lying areas, but not expecting it to be as
widespread. Regardless of advisory or not, you`ll want to think
about protecting your plants.

Friday will be similar to today with another bit of shortwave
energy rounding the base of the upper level trough to our
northeast and leading to some cloud cover and perhaps a few
isolated showers/sprinkles. Once again, not much moisture or
instability to work with, so any coverage of precip should be
quite low. Surface high pressure is progged to quickly work in
Friday evening with clearing skies and light winds. This will
lead to an even cooler night with a little more widespread frost
and even some locations seeing a freeze (most likely in
northeast NE and west-central IA.

Saturday will be the start of a warming trend as upper level
ridging will start to edge eastward and southerly flow sets up
behind the departing surface high. Temperatures should get into
the mid 60s to lower 70s, followed by widespread 70s to lower
80s on Sunday and Monday. We will remain under northwest flow
aloft with guidance suggesting potential for a few weak
shortwaves to ripple through the area along with some surface
fronts, potentially bringing some light precip. However, the
primary moisture plume looks to remain to our southeast, and
stronger forcing for ascent will remain to our northeast, so
chances currently remain below 20% for us through Monday with
anything that does develop being pretty light.

Meanwhile, a rather strong upper level trough/cutoff low looks
to move onshore over CA Sunday night into Monday, breaking down
the ridge, with associated shortwave energy ejecting toward the
forecast area. In addition, a surface boundary will be sliding
through the forecast area Monday into Tuesday and stalling
somewhere in or near the forecast area. As the aforementioned
shortwave energy pushes in, expect shower and storm development
in vicinity of the boundary Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest
guidance favors most of this activity being to our south,
keeping precip chances in the 30-40% range, though a few various
ensemble members set the front up across NE instead of KS, so
frontal position will be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise,
temperatures behind the front look to return to the 60s through
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions and overall, decreasing cloud cover are expected
going into the overnight hours. Northwesterly winds that are
currently in place will become increasingly lax by midnight, and
shift westerly at less than 5 kts. Once sunlight returns,
directions will once again pivot northwesterly and increase to
similar speeds that we saw this late morning/afternoon. Cloud
cover will be in shorter supply compared to today, with some
shower chances to the northeast across Iowa, with the terminals
expected to stay dry.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
     088>090-092.
IA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

548
FXUS63 KGID 302344
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers or sprinkles (10-20%) will be possible
  across the local area through the afternoon hours. Clearing
  skies and light winds expected this evening. Light showers and
  a very isolated thunderstorm (10-20%) possible across north
  central Kansas again Friday afternoon.

- Widespread frost formation is expected across the local area
  tonight/Friday morning and again Friday night/Saturday
  morning. A frost advisory is currently in effect from midnight
  CDT tonight through 9 AM CDT Friday.

- Warmer temperatures (70s to near 80) and dry conditions
  expected over the upcoming weekend. A chance for thunderstorms
  returns to the local area Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A weak front crossed the local area today with northerly breezes
and modestly cooler temperatures in its wake. With the colder
air advecting in aloft, steep lapse rates have led to some
diurnally driven clouds/showers/sprinkles popping up this
afternoon...all of which should rapidly diminish by early
evening. As skies clear and winds become light overnight, a
recipe for widespread frost appears to be in store, with most
locations forecast to drop into the lower to mid-30s. As a
result, a frost advisory goes into effect at midnight tonight
and lingers through 9 AM Friday morning.

A weak disturbance in northerly flow is then expected to clip
the local area Friday afternoon, sparking another round of light
showers (and possibly a very weak thunderstorm) focused across
our Kansas counties Friday afternoon. As skies behind this
disturbance clear Friday night, frost is again expected to be an
issue, albeit even colder temps may eventually justify a freeze
warning in spots.

After a cold start to the weekend Saturday morning, heights
aloft will begin to climb as high pressure moves in from the
west, making for a pretty spectacular weekend across the local
area with generally light westerly breezes and above normal
temperatures in the 70s (Saturday) to near 80 (Sunday). While
these warmer temperatures will persist into the new week, the
upper level ridge will eventually give way to a disturbance
from the west, which will bring at least a chance for some
showers and thunderstorms across the local area as early as
Monday evening and continuing through Wednesday. While there are
decent signals for some unsettled weather over this period in
ensembles, activity looks fairly scattered in nature and qpf
estimates are fairly modest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Fairly benign aviation conditions expected over the next 24
hours. Clouds will clear out this evening and breezy N winds
will subside to light and variable. Friday looks to be quite
similar to today in which mid level clouds increase midday into
the afternoon, along with NNW winds gusting up to 20kt.
Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion