Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

963
FXUS63 KOAX 031158
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will continue to move through the region today,
  bringing colder air and a small chance for a few flurries or
  drizzle to the region this morning.

- Wednesday night/Thursday morning brings some of the coldest
  temperatures we`ve had this fall/winter. Expected lows by
  Thursday morning will be below zero in most areas.

- Thursday remains cold, with a warm up expected heading into
  the weekend. Near-seasonal temperatures may return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A cold front has entered the northern part of the Omaha CWA this
morning, bringing with it much colder air. Ahead of the front, there
is a very small chance (5-10%) of some patchy drizzle/freezing
drizzle through around sunrise. Otherwise, flurries will be possible
across the region this morning, gradually tapering off from
northwest to southeast by early afternoon. Little to no accumulation
is expected with this system as it moves through. Noticeably colder
air will move into the region today, dropping temperatures through
the course of the day.

Heading into tonight, bitterly cold temperatures are expected as
colder air moves in, skies clear out, and winds die down. Low
temperatures Thursday morning will be below zero in most locations,
with some areas falling to around or colder than -10F. Wind chill
values will range from 0 to -10 for areas along and south of a line
from Lincoln to Clarinda, and -10 to -20 for areas north.

Thursday, a ridge inches closer to the West Coast, with northwest
flow setting up over the region. The cold will remain in the region,
with expected highs in the teens for western Iowa and the teens and
20s for eastern Nebraska. Conditions warm up slightly on Friday and
Saturday as highs return to the 30s.

Saturday morning, a mid-level shortwave trough will drop into the
region. Areas north of the Platte River may get clipped with a
little bit of snow Saturday morning through Sunday morning. At this
time, little to no accumulation is expected; however, continue to
monitor the forecast for changes in the coming days.

Monday through the extended forecast, models continue to show the
ridge over the West Coast shifting east, bringing a gradual warming
trend to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

KOFK: Ceilings have fallen to IFR levels this morning as a cold
front has moved into the region. A few flurries will impact the
terminal this morning, but should start moving out by 14-16Z.
Ceilings will improve to MVFR levels this afternoon, and VFR
levels by 22-00Z. Breezy northerly winds become light and
variable after sunset.

KOMA: MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the daytime
hours. Did put in a tempo group for a brief period of possible
IFR ceilings as a few light flurries and stratus move through.
Could get a patch of freezing drizzle but those chances decrease
after sunrise. The terminal may experience a brief reduction in
visibility due to flurries/snow, but is not expected to have
any major visibility reductions. Conditions should improve
around 15-17Z. VFR conditions return this evening. Northerly
winds around 14-19kts are expected after 16Z, decreasing around
sunset and becoming light and variable by midnight.

KLNK: MVFR conditions will continue at the terminal through the
morning hours, improving to VFR by around 20-22Z. There is a
chance for a few flurries to an isolated snow shower this
morning, with those chances tapering off after 16Z. North winds
will be on the breezy side this afternoon around 12-17kts,
becoming light after sunset.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

872
FXUS63 KGID 031148
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
548 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moves through the area this morning from the
  north to south, bringing gusty northerly winds (up to 25MPH)
  with a few sporadic period of flurries possible.

- Highs this afternoon will drop around 10-15 degrees compared
  to yesterday (upper 20s to mid 30s) with overnight lows mainly
  in the single digits. A handful of Nebraska areas east of
  HWY-281 could see temperatures drop a few degrees below zero.

- Though the 7-day forecast remains dry, a few weak passing
  waves could be able to toss in a few flurries to brief
  periods of light snow showers near the end of the week to next
  week.

- Temperatures for the rest of the forecast, beyond Tuesday and
  Sunday (20s/30s), will mainly lie in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025


An arctic cold front, soon passing south and through the area later
this morning, will chop highs today to the upper 20s (areas north of
I-80) up to the mid 30s (North Central Kansas areas). Northerly
turning winds, gusting up to 25MPH, will indicate the onset rush of
this dry, arctic airmass. These winds will slowly lighten through the
evening and nighttime hours as the front pulls down and away, leaving
behind high surface pressure in its wake. A few flurries can`t be
ruled out this morning to early afternoon, especially along to just
behind the front given saturated low-levels (evident by the low
hanging stratus deck). Accumulating snow, however, will not be
expected.

Beyond the shifting winds and flurry potential this morning behind
the front, temperatures overnight tonight will likely fall to their
lowest point of the season to date. Lows tonight are projected to
range the single digits to just below zero degrees. Areas south and
west of the Tri-Cities will see temperatures drop as low as the mid
single digits to low teens with places along and northeast of the
Tri-Cities in the low to mid single digits. A handful of Nebraska
places east of HWY-281 may even see temperatures reach a few degrees
under zero (as low as -4 degrees). These overnight lows will likely
become the coldest temperatures that the area sees for at least the
week. Though winds will become light tonight into Thursday morning,
wind chill values could still drop to as low as -14 to 4
degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Have had a mix of sun and high clouds today, which combined with
the variance in snow depth, has led to a wide range in
temperatures this afternoon. Southwestern areas have seen more
sunshine and melted what little snow there was, which has
allowed highs to jump into the lower 50s on steady SW breezes.
However, the NE half of the forecast area has been under more
persistent high clouds and "deeper" snowcover, leaving temps
only on the mid 30s to mid 40s - lowest along the Hwy 81
corridor where snow depth remains highest. Will continue to see
high clouds stream into the area this evening, but otherwise,
expect a quiet evening with seasonable temps.

Later tonight, another Arctic cold front will blast through the
forecast area from N to S - generally in the 06Z-12Z time frame.
This front will bring another surge of cold air to the region
for Wednesday, along with blustery Nrly winds gusting around
20-30 MPH. Will likely also see some areas of flurries off and
on behind the frontal passage until around midday. Shouldn`t
take much to squeeze out some flakes given the strong cold air
advection, steep boundary layer lapse rates, and LCLs/stratus
deck temps near or within favored dendritic growth temps of -12C
to -18C. The magnitude of the CAA will tend to stymie the
diurnal temp curve, so will likely see steady or even falling
temperatures by early afternoon for all but perhaps our southern
tier of KS counties. Falling temps and blustery N winds will
cause wind chills only in the single digits to teens for
Nebraska counties by mid-afternoon, and teens-lower 20s in KS.

A seasonably strong high pressure center - nearing around +2
standard deviations for early December - will move down the
Missouri River Wednesday night. The timing and track of the high
pressure center will likely spare our forecast area from a total
bottoming out of temps like further E (double digits below zero
likely E NE into IA!), but it`ll still be quite cold with Thu AM
lows falling into the single digits. Areas along Hwy 81 with the
deeper snow cover and slower onset of return Srly flow may even
fall a few degrees below zero. Expect just enough of a breeze to
cause wind chills to remain below zero for most of the area
through the AM bus stop Thu AM.

The rest of the forecast looks to feature variable temperatures
and a couple low-end chances for light precipitation under fast NW
upper flow. Multiple systems will swing through the region in
the Day 3-7 portion of the forecast, but it appears we`ll be
favored to remain mostly on the drier, SW side of the systems
with not a lot of deep moisture to work with. Short of a
significant southwestward shift in the primary storm track/"wave
train", even if we do get in on some of the precipitation, it`ll
be on the light side and tend to favor our northeast zones most.
These waves are notoriously difficult to time out more than
24-48 hours in advance, but just know there will be a "train" of
weak upper disturbances from the Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley
essentially each day later this week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will fluctuate accordingly (mild ahead of a
wave/front, cooler behind it) with overall specifics also
depending on timing. Per the 12Z EPS, appears Sunday is the most
likely period for a drop in temps in what otherwise should be a
gradually warming period with gradually melting snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low-end MVFR ceilings (around 1,500ft) will be in place much of
the day (through 21-0z). The latest NBM prob guidance suggest a
25% chance for KEAR and a 40% chance for KGRI to temporarily
see IFR ceilings around 15z. These low-level stratus mark the
passage of a cold front that leaves northerly winds in place
today blowing between 10-15kts with gusts as high as 20-25kts
through around 22z. Winds winding down in the evening will
become light and variable overnight, later turning directions
clockwise and back around to the south as higher pressure
infiltrates in behind the front. There is a low-end chance of
flurries falling before or just after noon today.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion