34°F
Updated:
2/3/2026
4:08:04pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
687 FXUS63 KOAX 031958 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 158 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow and freezing drizzle is possible (15-25% chance) Wednesday morning, mainly across northeast Nebraska. Snow totals are expected to remain under 0.50" with a glaze of ice possible. - Warmer temperatures arrive Thursday into next week, with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s, though a few spots may hit the 60s. - The prolonged stretch of warmer weather will increase the risk for river ice breakup and the potential for ice jams. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Tonight through Wednesday... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict broad mid- to upper-level troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, while ridging continues to build into the western CONUS. With a departing shortwave disturbance exiting to the southeast, very light and patchy flurries and freezing drizzle remain possible this afternoon, primarily along and south of the Interstate-80 corridor, with PoPs generally in the 10-15% range. Limited moisture availability and a modestly dry sub-cloud layer should keep any precipitation light enough to avoid meaningful impacts. Attention then turns to a shortwave disturbance currently moving into the Front Range, which will progress eastward into the region tonight. This feature will allow a narrow swatch of vorticity to move across the area Wednesday morning, bringing the next opportunity for light precipitation. Current guidance suggests a southwest-to-northeast oriented band of precipitation will enter northeast Nebraska early Wednesday morning, with PoPs peaking in the 15-25% range due to the low QPF and spotty coverage of expected precipitation. Precipitation type will be somewhat uncertain. Model soundings initially support light snow before saturation aloft decreases, transitioning profiles toward light freezing drizzle as the lowest 1- 2 km remain saturated. The precipitation band is expected to move through quickly and remain spotty in nature, with snowfall totals likely remaining under one-half inch and only a light glaze of ice possible. Despite the minimal expected accumulations, localized slick spots may develop, particularly across northeast Nebraska during the morning commute period. Precipitation coverage is expected to decrease as the band shifts southeast along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor and surface high pressure pushes in. Any lingering snow or ice should diminish relatively quickly through the day as temperatures warm, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the mid 30s to low 40s. Thursday and Beyond... From Thursday into the weekend, upper-level ridging will support temperatures warming to above seasonal norms. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching the 50s for most locations and the low 60s possible across portions of east- central Nebraska. The warm afternoon will be coupled with northwesterly winds gusts of 20-30 mph. An amplifying trough moving into the Great Lakes region will push a cold front through the area early Friday. Current guidance suggests the frontal passage will remain dry. The post-frontal airmass will drop highs into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Friday, still well above average. Enhanced CAA behind the front will also bring north-northwesterly wind gusts of 20-30+ mph through the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures through the weekend and into early next week are expected to remain mild, generally ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is approximately 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. The primary concern through this period will be the potential for ice jams as the prolonged warmer temperatures promote continued weakening and breakup of river ice across the region. Precipitation chances are expected to return by the middle of next week as an upper-level trough displaces the ridge pattern. Long- range guidance continues to show considerable variability regarding the evolution of this pattern change, resulting in low confidence in the timing and placement of precipitation during this extended timeframe. Regardless, the warmer temperatures are expected to persist. The CPC`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continues to indicate a 60-80% probability of above-normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions persist late this morning. A few scattered flurries will be possible into the early afternoon (10% chance). Ceilings will be slow to improve through the afternoon, with a brief period of VFR conditions expected after 03/00Z before another deck of MVFR ceilings pushes into the area during the early morning hours, generally by 03/07-10Z. This will be accompanied by another chance for light snow and potentially light freezing drizzle through the morning hours. The highest chance of seeing precipitation is KOFK (20% chance) with lower chances (near 10%) at KOMA and KLNK. Precipitation chances has not been included in the current TAF package due to the low confidence in coverage. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
328 FXUS63 KGID 032125 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 325 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain is expected this afternoon into this evening across western portions of the forecast area. - Rain and snow are possible (less than 40% chance) tonight. Freezing drizzle may impact the area Wednesday morning. - Some slick spots may develop on surfaces and roads late tonight into Wednesday morning. - A warm-up is expected beginning Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Today through Wednesday night... A broad upper trough covers the eastern 2/3rds of the country with an upper ridge over the West Coast. Northerly winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A surface high is centered over Minnesota and extends southward to Texas. The coldest temperatures across the area are generally along and east of Highway 81 with the warmest temperatures along and west of Highway 183. Areas of rain may impact western portions of the forecast area this afternoon into this evening. Another round of precipitation is expected to move in from the north Wednesday morning. The precipitation will likely mostly be in the form of snow early Wednesday morning then transition to freezing drizzle/freezing rain later in the morning as the dendritic grow zone becomes dry with a saturated layer between 0 and -10 degrees C. The precipitation is expected to end by early to mid Wednesday afternoon. Little to no snow accumulation is expected (less than 1 inch). Some light ice accumulation is possible (up to 0.01 inches). Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to around 50 degrees with northerly winds. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar to the previous night. Thursday through Monday... The upper trough will be further east on Thursday with the upper ridge over the Rocky Mountains. Northwesterly winds will be across the area on Thursday with temperatures expected to warm up into the 50s and 60s. The warm-up will continue into Thursday night with lows in the 30s. The upper ridge will begin to move into the Plains on Friday with a surface high extending from the northern Plains/Upper Midwest to Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Friday due to boundary placement, but expect highs to generally be in the 50s. The region will be on the backside of the surface high Friday night with temperatures cooling into the 20s across most of the area. Temperatures will warm up into the mid 50s to mid 60s on Saturday as winds will mostly be out of the south. Similar temperatures are expected on Sunday. A further warm up is expected on Monday as winds increase out of the southwest. High temperatures on Monday are expected to mostly be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: While there is some uncertainty if VFR ceilings will briefly be present this afternoon into this evening, expect ceilings to mostly be MVFR until around at least 09z to 12z. IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected beginning around 09z to 12z and will continue until at least 16z. MVFR ceilings are expected from 16z to 18z. Fog is possible from around 09z to 15z. Snow showers are also possible from around 11z to 16z. Winds will mostly be out of the northwest to north with some gusts possible this afternoon. Winds are expected to weaken this evening and tonight and become somewhat variable. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt
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