Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

861
FXUS63 KOAX 200528
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost
  for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Surface high pressure was building in late this evening with clouds
slowly, but surely starting to clear out of the area. Winds will
also become quite light as the high passes over, setting up what
looks to be a chilly night. Latest guidance suggests fairly
widespread 30s, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA
dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Expect frost development in much
of this area with potential for a few spots getting below freezing.
A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM.

The surface high will push to our east through the day on Wednesday
as some weak shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest
ejects eastward toward the area. This will lead to increasing cloud
cover and perhaps a few sprinkles or showers in portions of
northeast NE, but they likely won`t amount to much more than a few
hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cooler
side, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Another bit of shortwave
energy will slide through southern portions of the forecast area
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in better agreement
that we see some showers and perhaps an isolated storm with this,
mainly near and south of I-80 (30-50% chance).

Meanwhile, a trough will be digging into the western CONUS out of
Canada and eventually push east into the forecast area late Thursday
night into Friday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we`ll
see widespread rainfall with this system on Friday (60-80% chance),
but still some differences on exact track and resulting rainfall
amounts. Consensus currently suggests most places see a few tenths
at most.

Warmer, drier air will move in behind this system as it departs on
Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. We`ll warm further on Sunday and Monday as the trough
axis pushes to our northeast and ridging starts to build in. Expect
upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday followed by widespread 80s Monday into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are set to continue through the next 24 hours,
with winds quieting down to near or less than 5 kts and turning
increasingly northeasterly. From there, Winds will stay pretty
steady direction-wise, increasing to 5-10 kts while a SCT deck
of clouds develops at FL035 during the afternoon hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

255
FXUS63 KGID 200544
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory tonight into Wednesday morning for areas
  near/north of Highway 92.

- Light rain is expected in western areas during the day
  Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) move
  in from the west Wednesday night.

- Additional showers/t-storms Thursday evening through Friday.
  The threat for severe weather remains low.

- A drying and warming trend is expected this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that
resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4
days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the
30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under
surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase
early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from
dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in
some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in
areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is
"generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season
already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard,
Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost
impact.

Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in
from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains.
Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up
0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but
instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected.

Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected
to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances
for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat
remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought-
stricken areas of western Nebraska.

Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will
trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper
level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost
a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected
to return for Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally range from east to southeast between 5 to 10 knots.
There is a small chance (around 20% to 30%) of MVFR ceilings at
KEAR around 18z but confidence is not high enough to include at
this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046-
     047.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion