Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

800
FXUS63 KOAX 091934
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
134 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued potential for ice movement is expected today for the
  Platte, Loup and Elkhorn rivers. With the continuous warmer
  temperatures, we are monitoring these areas closely. A Flood
  Watch remains in effect through this evening.

- Very High fire danger is in place across northeast Nebraska,
  with winds shifting northwesterly this evening to complicate
  fire response.

- Above seasonal temperatures continue through the week along
  with the potential for record highs being set this afternoon.

- Periodic chances for rain and snow are expected between
  Wednesday evening and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features split flow in the upper
levels across much of the CONUS, with the heart of the northern
stream staying just north of the area. Zooming in locally, we find
ourselves behind a warm front and ahead of an incoming cold front
from the northwest. Temperatures have climbed quickly this afternoon
behind the warm front, despite winds under-performing and
under-mixing compared the initial expectation. The warm
temperatures have driven humidity values down into the 20-30%
range in northeast Nebraska, with some further reduction
expected before our heating tops out at 3 PM. With that said,
very high fire danger will continue through the afternoon, with
potential for extreme danger if winds gust to 25 or 30 mph
across northeast Nebraska (10% chance). Flooding risk due to
ice jamming on the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers continues
with those warm temperatures and resultant melting causing some
minor jumps and dips in the hydrographs. As of now, there still
is plenty of ice in the Loup River near Columbus to eventually
flush out into the Platte River to cause potential issues,
sustaining the risk into the next few days. Later this evening,
a wind shift and gusty winds will move through behind the cold
front to the northwest, with speeds briefly hitting 25-30 mph
around 10 PM to 2 AM before diminishing through 6 AM.

Tuesday and Beyond:

By Tuesday, we`ll see the departure of the record-breaking warmth in
favor of highs in the upper 40s to low 50s (well above our normal
mid 30s for this time of year). Northwesterly winds will linger
through most of the day, continuing to decrease in speed into the
afternoon while clouds become increasingly sparse by 6 PM. Our dry
weather pattern is poised to hold on going into the mid-to-late
portions of the forecast, with some form of quasi-zonal flow warding
away southern moisture, making us rely on clippers and mountain-
surviving moisture to result in any rain/snow locally. Highs do look
to remain well-above normal in the 40s and 50s through the next
week, making any of those snow chances entirely dependent on
what time of day they fall.

Focusing more on any precipitation, models continue to focus on an
initial clipper that moves through the area Thursday from the
northwest, providing only glancing blows at trace moisture. The next
shot at precipitation remains with a compact shortwave that
ejects east-northeast across the Desert Southwest, making into
the Central and Southern Plains early Saturday. Run-to-run model
trends have the guts of the system drifting farther southward,
and the latest suite of deterministic models favor Kansas and
points south for any precipitation. Ensembles continue to
indicate we have an outside chance at seeing something this
weekend, but anything that does reach the ground will struggle
to hit 0.1", and not really making a dent in our dryness so far
this winter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the next 24
hours, with the main concerns being rooted in the winds.
Directions have shifted southwesterly for most of the area
already, with KOMA expected to follow suit shortly. Gusts this
afternoon are expected to increase to 20-25 kts before slowing
down closer to 23-00z, then winds shift northwesterly between
03-05z. Strong winds at FL015 will make for low-level wind shear
at KOMA and KLNK, with gusts catching up at 22-28 kts after 06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ016-017-
     031>033-042>045-050>053-067.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

294
FXUS63 KGID 092119
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
319 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6PM tonight for
  Valley, Greeley, Sherman and Howard counties in Nebraska and
  Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties in Kansas.

- A cold front powering through tonight (9PM-1AM) will bring a brief
  period of gusty northerly winds with gusts high as 30-40MPH
  immediately following its passage.

- Temperatures will drop around 25 degrees from today (70s) to Tuesday
  (upper 40s to low 50s) following the cold frontal passage.

- The next chance of rain lies Friday and Saturday with peak
  probabilities ranging as low as 35% across far northwestern
  portions of the area up to 70% across far southeastern
  portions of the area. Despite these generally higher PoPs,
  precipitation amounts currently look to remain minimal. A lot
  of uncertainty still resides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026


Short Term Period (This Afternoon Though Wednesday)...

The Red Flag Warning in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman and
Howard counties in Nebraska as well as Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell
counties in Kansas, will remain in effect until 6PM this afternoon.
Record high temperatures today have helped dry conditions
considerably, allowing relative humidity values to drop as low as 10-
25% across the area. Wind gusts approaching 25MPH across the Nebraska
Sandhills as well as across portions of north central Kansas this
afternoon, provoke these areas of critical fire weather conditions.
Near-critical fire weather conditions additionally lie for the rest
of the area outside of the warning.

Do not get use to this record heat today as temperatures will drop
around 20-25 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday (from the 70s down to
the upper 40s to low 50s). A (dry) cold front will lead the charge
later this evening, dropping southeast and initiating this cool
down. Winds behind the front will flip northward with a short window
of overnight gusts as high as 40-45MPH possible (40-70% chance). The
timing of the front is expected to pass between 9PM and 1AM. Higher
surface pressure infiltrating behind this front will help nudge
these winds back some by the second half of the day Tuesday. Steady
to occasionally light winds (gusts 

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion