Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

381
FXUS63 KOAX 261036
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
536 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected Thursday, with
  southwest winds becoming northwesterly to northerly and
  gusting 35 to 45 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued near
  the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through the
  weekend and will be particularly high on Saturday.

- Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s. 60s return Saturday,
  followed by 70s and 80s into early next week.

- Precipitation chances will increase by the early to middle
  part of next week, with a 40-60% chance by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this evening as we remained on
the eastern periphery of upper level ridging. A surface
front/wind shift passed through the area today and will push
back northward overnight with strengthening southerly flow and
increasing warm air/moisture advection through Thursday morning.
This will be ahead of a cold front currently over WY/MT and the
Dakotas that will crash south through the area by mid-
afternoon. This will lead to a tricky high temperature and
RH/wind with some fairly large implications on fire weather.
Currently, temperatures near and south of I-80 are favored to
top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s prior to the front moving
through, while areas to the north will see cold air start to
spill in earlier and temperatures topping out in the 60s to mid
70s falling through the afternoon. RH also looks to drop toward
the mid 20s in southeast NE. Regarding winds, expect 25-30 mph
gusts out of the southwest ahead of the front, followed by a
little bit of a lull near the front, and then a punch of 35-40
mph gusts out of the northwest to north behind the front, with
model soundings showing 40+ kts in the mixed layer. Regarding
Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning, the lowest RH does not look
to overlap with the strongest winds for very long, if at all,
but the potential for 40 mph gusts behind the front into the
evening, plus just the wind shift in general do yield fire
weather concerns, so elected to convert most of the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning and extend the time through 10 PM.

Otherwise, CAMs do show light returns along and behind the cold
front as it passes through on Thursday, though model soundings
show very dry air to overcome, so not expecting much more than
sprinkles through the afternoon. Another bit of shortwave energy
then looks to slide through overnight with CAMs once again
suggesting some light radar returns, though the dry air will
still very much be in place, so again, not expecting any
meaningful precipitation.

Dry and cool northerly winds will persist on Friday, with highs
in the lower to mid 50s (pretty close to average for this time
of year). Gusts of 20-30 mph combined with RH values in the
teens to lower 20s will lead to another day of increased fire
danger, though winds don`t look to quite reach Red Flag criteria
at this point as surface high pressure moves in and the
gradient relaxes. However, that high will push off to our
southeast by early Saturday morning with a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of surface low pressure east of the Rockies
leading to strong southerly flow returning to the area. EPS mean
wind gusts are in the 30-40 mph range with RH looking to fall
into the teens area-wide while temperatures climb into the 60s.
As a result, expect widespread very high to extreme fire danger,
and we`ll very likely need a Fire Weather Watch and eventually
a Red Flag Warning for most of, if not the entire area.

The southerly flow will continue into Sunday with temperatures
climbing back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Increased fire
danger will persist, though with the surface low edging
eastward, the pressure gradient will relax a bit, so winds are
looking to be more in the 20-25 mph range.

The warmer weather should stick around into at least the early
part of next week, though a pattern shift looks to be on the
table with some increased precipitation chances as the upper
level ridge axis passes to our east leaving us under
southwesterly flow aloft. The first chances arrive Monday as the
surface low ejects eastward. However, with the dry air still in
place, this shouldn`t amount to much, with chances in the
20-40% range. By Tuesday night, another shortwave and associated
surface low look to pass through the region, dragging another
cold front through the area with additional rain chances. By
Wednesday/Thursday, guidance is in decent agreement showing a
stronger system with more widespread and heavier precipitation
somewhere in the central portion of the country, though still
quite a few differences on timing and track. Right now, chances
for us sit in the 40-60% range. It also appears at least part of
the area could be cold enough for some snow if that system
tracks through the area, though still a lot of time to figure
out details on that one.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Low-level wind shear will continue at all three
terminals as 45 kt southwesterly gusts continue at FL015. Low-
level wind shear is expected to diminish by 26/13-14Z.

Calm southwesterly winds will continue before a cold front
pushes southward across the area late this morning. Winds will
quickly veer to northerly and increase in speed behind the
front. Wind gusts are expected to peak in the 30-33 kt range
during the afternoon, taking a step down into the 22-27 kt range
during the evening. Mid-level cloud cover will also increase
behind the front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

852
FXUS63 KGID 261123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will be working its way south through the
  area through the first half of the day...ushering in an abrupt
  switch to north-northeasterly winds. Gusts around 40-45 MPH
  will be possible.

- Ahead of the front/accompanying cooler air, southern areas
  will have the potential to reach into the 80s...and along with
  the gusty winds, will bring increased fire weather concerns. A
  Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon-8PM today for areas
  along/south of the NE-KS state line.

- Notably cooler (near normal) highs expected for Friday in the
  low-mid 50s, before climbing back into the 80s by Sunday.
  There will be increased fire weather concerns each day Fri-
  Sun, the day with the overall greatest concern remains
  Saturday.

- Can`t rule out some isolated-scattered preciptiation chances
  later today into tonight...but better chances look to hold off
  until early next week (Monday and on).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing that the pattern across the
region has turned more zonal in nature...main area of high
pressure along the US/Mex border dampened thanks to a series of
disturbances crossing the the northern CONUS. Radar showing some
scattered precipitation out across western portions of NE early
this morning...things have been quiet across the forecast area.
At the surface, winds remain generally southerly with speeds
around 10 MPH...the main feature of interest being the strong
cold front still off to our north, which will continue pushing
south through the rest of the overnight hours.

Today through Friday...

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast. Models
still in pretty good agreement showing that for most
locations, it will remain a dry period. Later today into
tonight, models are still showing the potential for some
isolated-scattered precipitation to sink south through the
region with the passage of a mid-level disturbance. Not overly
excited about these chances...models favor locations to our east
with better lift, and there is plenty of drier air in the lower
levels to overcome. Forecast chances remain low around 20
percent...and what precipitation does happen to develop doesn`t
look to produce more than a few hundredths. Upper level flow
turns back more northwesterly for Friday in the wake of today`s
system.

For today, the main forecast concern lies with the stronger
winds and fire weather potential. Not a lot of change with the
timing of the cold front, which looks to push through all but
far SSE areas by late morning-midday. The stronger north-
northeasterly winds will continue on through the afternoon
hours...gusts near 40-45 MPH will be possible. The daytime
passage of the front makes for a tricky temperature
forecast...confidence is better across the south reaching into
the 80s before the cooler air works its way in...central and
northern areas will likely see temps fairly steady if not
falling through the afternoon hours. Current forecast highs
range from the low-mid 60s in the far north, roughly low 70s in
central areas, to low-mid 80s in the far southeast.

Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight...but there will
be the potential for breezy conditions into at decent chunk of
the day on Friday until the main sfc high sinks far enough to
relax the pressure gradient. Notably cooler highs still forecast
for Friday, in the low-mid 50s (not far from normal for this
time of year).

Fire weather concerns remain for both today and Friday,
especially for today due to the stronger winds. See the Fire
Weather section below for more.

This weekend...

Forecast for the upcoming weekend remains dry, with models
continuing to show upper level ridging trying to build back
north through the Rockies/Plains...just not looking to be an
overly strong push. A warmer airmass will also be building back
in...allowing for highs on Saturday to rebound back into the
60s, and even warmer on Sunday into the 80s.

Gusty conditions are expected to develop across the region on
Saturday, making this the next upcoming day with increased fire
weather concerns. The sfc pressure gradient is expected to
tighten up across the region ahead of deepening low pressure
over the High Plains...increasing southerly winds and bringing
the potential for gusts exceeding 35 MPH. Lighter winds, turning
more WSW ahead of a sfc frontal boundary, are expected on
Sunday. See the Fire Weather section below for more.

New work week...

Models showing the potential for the new work week to transition
to a potentially more active zonal/southwesterly pattern
across the region...bringing more, very welcomed precipitation
chances. Still plenty of uncertainties and details to work out
in models as far as timing and track of any disturbances moving
through...but it`s nice to see some better precip chances back
in the forecast. Highs for Mon-Sun stay in the 70s-80s,
potentially much cooler by Thursday in the 40s-50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

This afternoon, deep mixing in the west-northwesterly surface
flow has resulted in another day of record-breaking high
temperatures. Many areas will top 90 degrees by late afternoon.

Winds should fall of pretty quickly this evening before turning
back to the south. Steady south wind will keep overnight
temperatures well above normal as well. In fact, our Thursday
morning temperatures (50s to near 60) are very close to our
normal HIGH temperatures for late March.

The cold front for Thursday has trended a touch slower, which
means that southeastern areas could make a run into the 80s and
possibly near 90 before the front moves through. This also
heightens the fire weather threat, and therefore a Fire Weather
Watch was issued for southeastern parts of the area. The front
is expected to move through between 9am in the north and 3pm in
far southern portions of the area. Behind the front, stiff
north winds will increase, with gusts likely around 40 MPH.

Some sprinkles are possible near and behind the front during
the day Thursday, but the chance for anything measurable is very
low. A few additional showers are possible as the upper level
trough moves through Thursday night into Friday morning, but
most locations will likely miss out on this as well. More
widespread rain chances will remain well to our south with the
cold front.

North winds will decrease a bit on Friday, but will still remain
somewhat breezy, especially in the morning. Friday high
temperatures are expected to be in the 50s...which is actually just
a few degrees below climatological normals.

The pattern flips back to warm this weekend and into the early
part of next week. Breezy south winds return on Saturday, aiding
temperatures back into the 60s, and widespread 80s are expected
Sunday through Tuesday. The next meaningful chance for rain
will be Tuesday into Wednesday (March 31 into April 1).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Kept the
forecast dry, though there is some uncertainty in that this
evening/tonight, when models have the potential for isolated-
scattered precipitation passing through the area...just not
enough confidence in it occurring to insert a mention at this
point. Winds are currently on the light/variable side, but that
will be short-lived, as a strong cold front continues to sink
south toward the terminal areas. The front will be passing
through early this morning, ushering in gusty northerly winds
for the remainder of the daytime-evening hours, before
diminishing toward the end of this period. Gusts near 40 MPH
will be possible from late morning on through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Today...

Main story for today remains with the passage of a strong cold
front, which is expected to push through the entire forecast
area by early afternoon. This front will be ushering in an
abrupt switch to north-northeasterly winds for the day...gusts
around 40-45 MPH are not out of the question. Expecting quite a
range in high temperatures today because of that boundary...with
southern areas having the potential to reach into the 80s.
Those areas, mainly along/south of the NE-KS state line, will
have the potential for near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions to develop...and a Red Flag Warning has been issued
from noon-8PM. A quicker passage of the front may result in
relative humidity values not technically dropping to/below
critical levels (20 percent)...but values in the low-mid 20
percent are forecast, and there is no question that the winds
will be a concern.

Friday....

Though notably cooler with highs `only` in the low-mid 50s (so
near normal), it`s also a significantly drier airmass building
into the area...with dewpoints during the day on Friday in the
single digits to mid teens. Widespread relative humidity values
in the 15-20 percent range are forecast through the afternoon
hours...main question lies with winds. Breezy north-
northeasterly winds continue at least through the first half of
the day...but speeds will be gradually diminishing through the
afternoon as surface high pressure settles further south into
the area. Expecting widespread near- critical
conditions...critical conditions will be dependent on the timing
of the diminishing winds vs lowering relative humidity.

Saturday....

Gusty southerly winds develop area-wide ahead of deepening sfc
low pressure to our west...gusts exceeding 35 MPH will be
possible. The increased southerly flow brings warmer air back
into the area, with highs back in the 60s. Moisture will also be
increasing, but models show dewpoints only climbing back into
the teens-20s...resulting in relative humidity values dropping
into the 15-25 percent range. Near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions are forecast area-wide.

Start of the new week...

Warmer temperatures back in the 70s-80s are forecast Sunday-
Tuesday...but at this point not looking at notable winds through
this period. Expecting increasing dewpoints, especially across
central-eastern areas, helping with fire weather concerns...but
at least spotty near-critical conditions will be possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ084>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion