Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

663
FXUS63 KOAX 011706
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. Heat advisories
  are posted for the Omaha metro and far southwest Iowa.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight,
  particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and
  locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms
  that develop.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of
  rain and storms waits for the evening of Saturday -
  Independence Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an amplified pattern across the CONUS
as a strong upper ridge spins anti-cyclonically over the Deep
South. Mid-level southwesterly flow stretches from SoCal to the
arrowhead of Minnesota just ahead of a cutoff low in Manitoba.

Temperatures have cooled under the mostly clear skies and heat
indices have fallen below heat headline criteria. All headlines
have been allowed to expire as overnight temperatures are
expected to fall close to 75 degrees or lower which is
considered the mark where it becomes difficult to keep a home
without air conditioning cool.

We`ve watched an area of consistent convection in southwest
Iowa all evening long. The strongest convection is expected
late tonight when the action in western Nebraska and Kansas
finds its way east. Most guidance kills the Kansas convection
as it moves into the drier environment of far southeastern
Nebraska, and certainly the more recent runs are leaning heavily
in that direction, but with the nocturnal LLJ ramping up, it`s
hard to discount that solution entirely.

Seemingly more likely is the arrival of the MCS currently in the
western half of Nebraska holding together to impact this side of
the state. The orientation of the H8 LLJ should help add a
northerly component to the storm complex`s eastward progression.
Concurring, successive iterations of CAMs have pushed that
complex increasingly farther north so now that the threat of
severe weather looks most likely to miss this forecast area to
the north from 2AM to 5AM. Still, our staffing has been beefed
up should warnings become necessary. Tornadoes would be of
little concern, but damaging winds and 1" hail would be the
primary threat for any storms clipping our far northern
counties.

.WEDNESDAY....

Who could have guessed that the forecast calls for more heat and
a chance of strong thunderstorms? Almost everyone! Wednesday`s
highs may be a degree or two lower than those notched on
Tuesday, but with dewpoints mostly unchanged, it`ll remain hot.
Heat indices will be peaking in the low triple digits in fewer
locations... highlighted by a new heat advisory for far
southwestern Iowa and the Omaha metro where the urban heat
island can have impacts on keeping cool.

Thunderstorm chances will wait again for after dark when the LLJ
will be pushing directly into the boundary draped across the
state of Nebraska. The SPC has a slight chance of severe weather
(category 1 of 5). Those storms would likely be elevated and
would have a hard time producing a tornado.

.THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

Another afternoon of 90s is forecast for Thursday and - surprise!
- another chance of thunderstorms as a shortwave works through
  the northern portions of the area after dark. The overall
  pattern begins to transition to more zonal flow as the cutoff
  low in Manitoba begins to meander east Friday is shaping up
  to be the warmest day of the work week`s second half with
  forecast heat indices flirting with advisory criteria once
  again.

Independence Day arrives on a Saturday which is conducive to
outdoor activities. The weather forecast has other plans. A cold
front is progged to push through the area in the afternoon and
bring a good chance of rain/thunder (40-70%).

There won`t be much of a cool down behind that front as temps
on Sunday will peak in the upper 80s and the 90s return already
by Monday or Tuesday.

The CPC`s 8-14 day outlook offers little relief as it suggests
the entirety of the lower 48 + Hawaii are leaning warmer than
normal for July`s first half.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the
period. Winds are expected to become SSW this afternoon and
increase, with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible. Storm
chances will increase this evening and overnight. While
uncertainty was still too great to include in the TAF at this
time, the best chance for storms looks to be between 00-06Z this
evening, with another round of storms possibly developing around
12Z Thursday morning. LLWS may increase overnight, as the low
level jet picks up, but should stay just southeast of the TAF
sites, according to the latest guidance.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

358
FXUS63 KGID 011142
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and Humid weather continues through Saturday with highs in
  the upper 80s to upper 90s and heat index values in the 90s
  to around 100 degrees.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening-
  overnight hours today and Thursday. A few storms could be
  strong-severe capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
  large hail.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) during the late
  afternoon-overnight hours on Independence Day/4th of July.
  Some of these storms could be strong-severe. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A decaying thunderstorm complex continues to lift northeast across
the area. Some breezy winds (gusting 30-40mph) remain possible
under this mostly decayed stratiform rain shield. A few
scattered storms may move the area throughout the early
morning, but severe storms appear unlikely. Any lingering rain
is expected to exit the area shortly after sunrise.

Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow as ridging persists
over the Great Lakes. Another hot and humid day is expected
across the area with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat
index values in the 90s to around 100 degrees. Southerly winds
will be breezy across central and southeastern portions of the
area, gusting 20-30mph. Focus then turns to the potential for
thunderstorms during the evening-overnight hours. While models
differ on the coverage of storms, at least isolated storm
development is possible this evening along a front that
stretches across central portions of the area. 2500+ J/Kg of
CAPE is expected across the forecast area. Shear along and north
of the front will be supportive of stong-severe storms when
combined with CAPE. Another area to watch for storms will be
across western Kansas where a cluster of strong-severe storms is
likely to develop. This cluster of storms would move into
southwestern portions of the area during the late evening-
overnight hours. It`s plausible this cluster acts similarly to
Tuesday night/current storms where they quickly lose strength on
approaching the forecast area due to increasing inhibition and
weaker shear. Strong-severe storms could produce 60mph wind
gusts and half dollar sized hail. Scattered storms continue into
the overnight hours, with the coverage and intensity decreasing
over time.

Hot and humid weather continues on Thursday as highs once again
climb into the 90s with heat index values topping out around 100
degrees. Isolated storms that develop over western NE/KS move into
western portions of the area Thursday evening. These storms could be
strong-severe through intensity may wane as they move east and
inhibition increases around sunset. Another area to watch for severe
weather potential will be in South Dakota as storms could form into
an MCS that may clip northern portions of the area. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track as southwesterly flow becomes more zonal
on Friday-Saturday. Those with plans on the 4th of July should keep
a close eye on the forecast as a passing disturbance brings a chance
for storms during the late afternon-overnight hours. Machine
learning guidance highlights the potential for these storms to be
strong-severe though details are uncertain at this time and will
become clearer as we get closer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country and
extends over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An upper ridge
extends from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. South central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these two
features. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday,
especially across northern portions of the area with a surface high
present. Highs are expected to range from mid/upper 80s to the upper
90s. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the low/mid
60s to the mid 70s.

There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to enhanced (level 3 out of
5) risk of severe storms today into tonight. The highest risk
(enhanced) will be across portions of north central Kansas. CAPE
values will mostly range from 2,500 to 4,000+ J/kg. 0 to 6 km wind
shear values will get up to around 50 knots across mainly western
and northern portions of the area. Mid-level lapse rates will
generally range from 7 to near 8 degrees C/km. A shortwave is
expected to move over portions of the area this evening into
tonight. These conditions will contribute to the severe weather
threat this evening into tonight. The severe weather could start as
early as around 6 PM with an isolated supercell or two in north
central Kansas or in south central Nebraska west of Kearney. The
more widespread/main threat of severe weather is expected around 8
or 9 PM when a line/cluster of storms moves northeastward from
western Kansas. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms
will go when they move into the forecast area. While there is more
confidence for the storms to impact north central Kansas and
areas of south central Nebraska generally along and south of
Highway 6, some models are indicating storms moving from Furnas
County northeastward to Greeley County (similar to where storms
moved last yesterday evening/last night). Hail up to around golf
ball size and wind gusts up to around 70+ MPH will be the main
threats. The severe threat is expected to end around 2 AM
although additional (possibly strong) storms may develop after
that time.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Temperatures on Wednesday will be fairly similar to those today.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms across the majority of the
forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night with a small portion of
north central Kansas in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5). CAPE
values will be very high (over 4,000 J/kg according to the NAM12)
but 0 to 6 km wind shear will be a little weaker than today (up to
40 to 45 knots in some areas). Mid-level lapse rates will generally
be similar to those today. A shortwave trough is expected to move
over/near the area Wednesday evening and produce storms, some of
which may be strong to severe. Hail up to around the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be the main
threats. The main timing for severe storms will be around 7 PM to
midnight.

Thursday through Monday...

Similar high temperatures will continue for Thursday. There is a
marginal to slight severe storm threat for Thursday for south
central and central Nebraska. There is some uncertainty if storms
will even impact the area, but storms that do develop/move into the
area will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Some
storms may impact (up to around a 30% chance) northern portions of
the forecast area (Highway 6 and northward) Friday evening. Severe
potential is unknown at this time. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the lower to upper 90s.

It still appears that some, or most, of the forecast area could
experience showers and thunderstorms Saturday (4th of July) evening.
Right now for the evening and early overnight hours, there is a 30%
to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide. The severe potential
is unclear at this point but there is at least a low threat (20% to
30%) of severe storms. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. High temperatures Sunday and
Monday are expected to mainly be in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely throughout TAF period though thunderstorms
could briefly result in sub-vfr conditions. Southerly winds
increase this morning, gusting 20-25kts by the mid-late morning.
Winds decrease during the afternoon falling below 10kts by
sunset. After sunset, scattered thunderstorms are possible at
KGRI and KEAR, but confidence in details regarding timing or
strength are too low to include information beyond a broad
PROB30 group when storms are most likely. SCT-BKN mid-high level
clouds are possible throughout the TAF period, with the lowest
ceilings in storms.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion