Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

866
FXUS63 KOAX 241712
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1112 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog across east-central and southeast Nebraska
  through Christmas Eve morning. More widespread fog is expected
  Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day. Travel may be impacted
  by low visibilities.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday with record or
  near-record high temperatures possible.

- Dry weather continues through the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A dreary start to Christmas Eve is developing. A broad and weak warm
front is beginning to slowly lift north this morning. This is
ushering in low clouds and fog. This fog has been dense over
northern Kansas and is expected to lift into southeast and east-
central Nebraska through the morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has
been issued as a result of this. Fog may develop elsewhere across
the region, but this may be patchier and less dense. Additionally,
light drizzle may develop over southwest Iowa as well. The fog and
low clouds will likely slow daytime heating across the area. That
being said, widespread upper 40s and lowers 50s are likely, with
temperatures closer to 60 further west where sunshine may break out
this afternoon.

The weather for Christmas day appears very similar to Christmas Eve.
The aforementioned warm front will remain in the vicinity heading
into this evening. Widespread fog and low clouds redevelops and
expands tonight into Christmas morning. This will likely slow
nocturnal cooling keeping most locations in the upper 30s. Dense fog
may once again be possible across portions of the area through the
morning hours. With more widespread fog and clouds expected,
temperatures may come in couple degrees cooler than Christmas Eve.

Despite a weak disturbance on Friday, temperatures continue to be
well above normal and the same is likely for Saturday as well.
Though that will finally come to an end late in the day on Saturday
as a much stronger front swings through the area. The stronger front
is aided by more significant troughing over the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures are sent tumbling back into the 20s and 30s during the
afternoon with single digits to teens each morning to start next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Based on current observation and recent model trends, this
forecast update has trended in a more pessimistic direction in
regard to ceilings and visibilities. KOFK will likely transition
to VFR in the next hour or so with greater model variability at
KLNK this afternoon into early evening in how much ceilings and
visibilities improve. At KOMA, it`s looking more likely that
LIFR conditions will persist through much/all of the forecast.
By 25/02-25/04z, there is good model agreement that widespread
LIFR conditions develop, including KOFK and KLNK with those
conditions persisting through Christmas Day morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ042>044-050-051-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

883
FXUS63 KGID 241740
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1140 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The ONLY real forecast concern over the next 36-48 hours is
  the likelihood for at least two rounds of fog/dense fog...one
  already underway this morning, and then another late tonight
  into Thursday daytime (possibly lingering into Thurs evening?)
  The vast majority of fog should focus within the eastern 1/2
  to 2/3rds of our forecast area.

- Thanks to inherent uncertainty in how long low cloud cover/fog
  persists within parts of our area, and also how far west it
  expands/how far east it erodes, temperatures today-tomorrow
  will surely continue to be a "forecast adventure", with some
  central/eastern counties likely AT LEAST 5-10 degrees cooler
  than especially far west counties.

- High confidence that Fri-Sat will feature fewer fog
  issues/more sun and thus the warmest readings of the next 7
  days with widespread highs in the 60s (possibly even breaking
  Dec. 26th records on Friday).

- A fairly strong cold front will slice through Saturday night,
  ushering in much colder (but NOT overly-cold) temps for
  especially Sunday-Monday (highs mainly 30s).

- Although our entire 7-day remains void of any official precip
  chances at this time, there are at least weak hints that a
  quick hit of light snow can`t be ruled out late Sat night-
  Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES TO 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE:
- Although confidence in "exact" temps is still running below
  average even at this close time range given uncertainties in
  exactly what low clouds/fog will do during the daytime hours,
  highs for Thursday (Christmas Day) have dropped another 2-5
  degrees in most areas, with especially much of our now
  expected to struggle to reach 50 (if at all).

- Confidence in "fog issues" only continues to grow for late
  tonight into much of Thursday/Christmas Day...especially east.


-- BRIEF HIGHLIGHTS/UNCERTAINTIES OF DAYS 3-7 (Friday-Tuesday):
The main items of note include:
1) How warm will Friday-Saturday get once we (hopefully) lose
the fog/low cloud concerns?

2) Could later forecasts need to feature some minor snow
accumulation potential for late Sat night-Sunday AM (latest
ECMWF more suggestive of this than the GFS).


-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:

Although difficult to see on satellite data due to being
masked/covered by appreciable high level cirrus, surface obs
confirm low-level model relative humidity and visibility progs
confirm that a shield of very low clouds and at least light fog
(dense in spots) has been and continues streaming northward into
mainly the eastern half of our forecast area (CWA) since last
evening. Visibility has at least sporadically fallen into the
near-dense to dense (1/2 to 1/4 mile) range at various airport
sensors including Beloit KS and Hebron/Hastings/Grand
Island/Aurora/York on the Nebraska side.

As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory (issued back around midnight)
continues this morning for the majority of our CWA (all except a
few far northern/western Nebraska counties where fog is least
favored to reach/develop into. Hourly temp trends are already
proving tricky, with areas under the thickest low clouds warming
to around 40 degrees, while far western/northern sites such as
Ord/Lexington have dropped into the upper 20s.


- TODAY:
Obviously the fog/dense fog issues this morning are by far the
main concern. Leaning heavily on low-level RH/visibility
guidance from RAP/HRRR, the very low clouds and/or fog should
hold firm or continue expanding into much of roughly the
southeast 2/3 of our CWA over the next several hours, before
slowly/gradually lifting/dissipating late this morning into
early this afternoon as low level/surface breezes (albeit
light) turn more west-southwesterly to help scour out the
"grunge". Not out of the question that limited pockets of dense
fog could linger slightly beyond the current Noon expiration
time of the Advisory, but the vast majority of our CWA should
see a fog-free afternoon with at least some sunshine. For
temperatures, confidence is definitely below average, so took a
"best stab" with a multi-model blend, yielding afternoon highs
mid 50s to low 60s most areas, but at least mid-upper 60s in a
few far western counties such as Dawson/Valley.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
While much of the evening (pre-midnight) should remain void of
low clouds/fog potential, the late-night hours will bring these
elements right back into play for especially the eastern 1/3 to
possibly 1/2 of our CWA as low level breezes remain light and
turn more easterly (upslope). Dense fog and the associated need
for another Advisory is certainly on the table, but will defer
to other shifts to address this once the current Advisory
expires. Low temps aimed low-mid 30s most places.


- CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY:
Wow has the temperature forecast dropped over the last several
days! Thanks to at least the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of our CWA
likely being socked in under widespread low clouds/and or fog
for much of the day (particularly in the morning but lingering
in especially eastern counties into the afternoon), the vast
majority of our CWA will not get nearly as warm as once
expected. Again, temperature forecast is not overly high, but
the same multi-model blend used for today`s temperature forecast
now yields most of our eastern 2/3rds only reaching the upper
40s-low 50s, but with milder upper 50s to even a few low 60s far
west where low clouds will be less pervasive (albeit there will
likely be plenty of higher level cirrus too.


- THURSDAY NIGHT:
Still plenty of question marks regarding whether fog remains in
issue into the evening hours, but "in theory" light westerly
breezes should scour it out/shunt it east of our CWA especially
post-midnight. This obviously bears watching though, as there is
still time for this expectation to change. Low temps currently
aimed mid-upper 30s most areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

High clouds are increasing from the north, but it won`t be
enough to derail another day of above-normal temperatures for
the area. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will result
in the 9th-consecutive day of above normal temperatures...and
this relatively warm trend will continue through the rest of
the week.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, light southerly winds and
returning moisture will provide a favorable environment for

Lingering high cloud cover does provide some uncertainty on how
dense/widespread the fog will become, but a a Dense Fog Advisory
will likely be needed for at least parts of the area (favoring
south and east).

Skies will gradually clear on Wednesday, but lingering cloud
cover may result in a wide range in temperatures from west to
east across Neb/Kansas for Christmas Eve. Most of our area are
expected to reach the 50s and 60s. But just to our west could
reach the mid 70s, and parts of eastern Nebraska could struggle
to reach 50.

Light and variable winds will then potentially allow fog to
return to the area late Wednesday night and into the morning of
Christmas Day. At this range, details on fog are more uncertain,
but ensembles favor the eastern half of the area with the best
chance to see dense fog. Temperatures for Thursday/Christmas
continue to trend downward...largely driven by lingering clouds.
The current expectation is for highs in the 50s for most, but
there is considerable spread on the latest NBM...due to the
uncertainty of cloud cover. Regardless, its hard to complain
with temperatures in the 50s and light winds on Christmas Day.

Friday is now expected to be the warmest day of the week, aided
by WSW winds ahead of a pair of shortwaves moving through the
western US/Canada. In fact, it is possible that some areas
exceed 70 degrees (25-50% chance...highest southwest)!

A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, resulting in
breezier northwest winds. The cold air will lag behind this
front enough that temperatures still reach the 50s/60s Saturday,
but Sunday will be markedly cooler (upper 20s and 30s). Global
ensembles do hint at some light snow or flurries behind this
front on Sunday, but the overall probability for anything
accumulating is still low (10% or less).

Heading into next week, temperatures are expected to be cooler
and more "up and down" in the northwesterly flow pattern. As a
result, confidence in the day-to-day temperature trend remains
pretty low. For example, for New Year`s Eve, the 10th
percentile NBM has a high temperature of 15 degrees for
KGRI...while the 90th percentile is 60 degrees. A 45 degree
spread!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Fog this morning has cleared for the day with only a few cirrus
lingering above. Low-level stratus/fog is slated to return
again tonight, reaching the KGRI terminal between 8-11z and KEAR
between 12-15z. Visibility could drop near and bellow 1 mile
after 10z for KGRI and after 14z for KEAR. During this time,
ceilings for KGRI is expected and possible for KEAR to reach
LIFR criteria. Dense fog will be possible. Winds will remain
light and variable all day (049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion