Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

771
FXUS63 KOAX 101048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and a few storms expected across
  eastern Nebraska early this morning (15-30% chance).

- A few scattered showers and storms linger into Friday
  afternoon (15-30% chance) over the area. Some storms could
  produce gusty winds or small hail.

- Stretch of hot and dry weather starts Saturday into much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective analysis shows a well defined H5 shortwave trof
over the Panhandle region into central Nebraska. Broad ascent from
the feature combined with sfc convergence along a boundary has led
to convection developing along a line from near Ainsworth to North
Platte to Cambridge, Nebraska. Latest CAM suite suggest convection
largely decreasing in intensity after 10z as it enters our
western areas with just some lingering scattered showers and
isolated storms early this morning. While some instability of
500 to 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE lingers, 0-6 km bulk shear ranging
from 20-25 kts should largely limit any severe threat over the
area early this morning. PoPs remain at 15 to 30% for most of
eastern Nebraska this morning.

As we head into Friday afternoon and evening, should still see some
lingering showers and storms across most of the forecast area as the
H5 wave lingers (15-30%). Some CAMs highlight convection developing
in far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa likely driven by both
the wave and a remnant MCV associated from the previous evening`s
MCS in Kansas. The 0-6 km bulk shear appears best in this
corridor at 30-35 kts, while MLCAPE ranges from 700-1,000 J/kg.
So, don`t be surprised if a few strong storms with gusty
winds/hail develop in this area. For the remainder of the area,
some pop up showers or isolated storms may develop in the
afternoon. A few of these could produce gusty winds as they
collapse given the low level dry air/high cloud bases seen from
BUFKIT soundings, but overall the severe threat with these
appears very limited. Showers and storms should largely
dissipate after 03z. Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s
with a few 90s along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Lows cool
to the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday will see dry conditions as a channel of sfc high pressure
builds into the Northern Plains. Highs warm to the upper 80s to low
90s and will be the start to a warming trend for the rest of the 7
day forecast.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The hot temperatures will largely dominate the long term forecast
period. Model guidance is in really good agreement of a 594dam ridge
building over much of the Central and Northern Plains areas.
Temperatures warm to the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday,
areawide 90s Tuesday, and mid to upper 90s Wednesday into
Thursday. Areas in our far northwest up in Knox and Cedar
counties may start to flirt with the 100F degree mark as early
as Sunday. Heat indices for most locations should range from the
low to mid 90s through at least Tuesday, before increasing
slightly to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the long term
period.

The ridge should largely help suppress any rain chances too so
expect dry weather during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail. A decaying storm
complex has largely been reduced to showers as it enters the
area from the west. Most of this activity will remain south of
Interstate 80. Scattered rain showers at LNK are expected with
a low (20%) chance of thunder. Despite showers, ceilings should
remain between FL035 and FL045 with visibility generally greater
than 6SM. Rain moves off to the east between 15-16Z. Additional
afternoon storm development remains possible, but this threat
is low (20%) with little to no aviation impacts anticipated.
Winds remain light out of the east to southeast through the
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

668
FXUS63 KGID 101146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours
  and may redevelop (up to 30% chance) later this morning into
  this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected after today/tonight.

- Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the end of the
  forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into the area from
the west. These storms will continue moving eastward and are
expected to generally weaken through the overnight hours. Severe
storms are not expected, but some storms may produce small hail and
wind gusts up to 50 MPH. Additional showers and storms may develop
later this morning into the afternoon across portions of the area
with upper lift in the form of an MCV and moisture in place. High
temperatures today will mainly be in the low to mid 80s. Winds today
are expected to be fairly light and variable but will mostly be out
of the east to southeast by this evening. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the 60s with generally light and variable winds.

After today/tonight, drier conditions are expected. Temperatures
will generally be on a warming trend from Saturday (highs mostly in
the 80s) to Thursday (highs in the low to mid 90s). Low temperatures
will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026


The Main Story Tonight: Storms Rolling in from the West...

The main story of the day will be the chance for yet another round
of storms late tonight into Friday morning. A weak shortwave
disturbance popping out of the Rockies today has already started to
stir up a cluster of cumulus and scattered storms across eastern
Wyoming/Colorado. Though a few of these storms are expected to
become severe as they cross through the rest of eastern Colorado and
the Nebraska Panhandle, given the time of arrival of these storms
(arriving  between 10PM-1AM), there is some question to how much
energy/momentum may actually be left in the tank. The High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have been fairly
consistent in portraying these storms to be in the stage of decay as
they cross into the South Central Nebraska / North Central Kansas
region.

Generally these storm will be crossing into a less favorable
environment, though 1,5000-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE as well as 20-35kt
deep layer shear may still be just supportive enough for
maintaining one or two stronger to marginally severe storms. IF any
storm is able to stay severe, the main threats would be for gusty
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60MPH with a few areas of hail possible
(up to quarter sized). The areas that would be the most susceptible
for these stronger storms wold be areas west of HWY-183 in Nebraska
as well as a few north central Kansas locations. The Storm
Prediction Center has kept a Marginal risk of severe weather (level
1 of 5) for locations west of a line from Cozad to Alma in Nebraska
and down to Beloit in Kansas. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) clips
southwest portions of Rooks and Osborne counties.

Though the severe threat will be fast to diminish tonight, a few
weak thunderstorms embedded within a larger array of showers will
still be expected to linger across a few portions of the area, to
potentially as late as noon on Friday. The overall best potential
for precipitation (50-80% chances) will be concentrated west and
southwest of the Tri-Cities with 20-50% chances reserved for the
remainder of the area (greatest chances towards the southwest). Most
locations should only expect to see 0.1-0.5" of precipitation with a
few more localized amounts up to 1" possible.


The Main Story Next Week: Warming Temperatures & Drier Conditions

Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, temperatures have
been knocked down by around 5-10 degrees for today. The "coolest"
day within the next week should fall Friday as highs are forecast to
spread the low to mid 80s. After Friday, highs will likely take a
multi-day climb with an at least 5+ day streak of 90+ degree heat on
the way for next week. This streak of increasingly warmer
temperatures will become the main story for next week.

This warm up will be primarily driven by a building ridge across
much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions,
additionally helping to snuff out most precipitation chances in the
process. The Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) now has a relatively
strong agreement in retaining these warm and dry conditions for much
of if not all of next week. The latest GFS/ECMWF models show an
upper-level rex block (high pressure center north of lower pressure
center) forming overtop of the Central Plains during the middle of
next week. If this pattern achieves, persisting heat (mainly highs
in the 90s) will be favored to stick around the area. There is still
some uncertainty to how extreme this heat may become. The Weather
Prediction Center, however, is beginning to highlight the potential
for extreme heat next weekend (mainly on the 17th and 18th) on their
extended hazard outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and isolated storms will be possible this morning into
this afternoon. Low ceilings may briefly impact the terminals
this morning before skies become more clear. Fog may develop
tonight as skies clear out and winds remain light; however,
confidence is low at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion