Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

903
FXUS63 KOAX 161838
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
138 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm chances expected for the afternoon
  (30%) and evening hours, with more storms possible in the late
  evening and overnight (70-90%).

- Continued threat for severe storms Sunday and Monday with all
  hazards possible.

- Temperatures cool down for Tuesday through Thursday in the 50s
  and 60s, warming back up toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Satellite gives a good idea of where the upper-level warm front
is located this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies along and
north of the boundary from Lincoln to Plattsmouth. Skies to the
south are mostly clear. We have the surface front to the south,
closer to the Kansas-Nebraska state line. We`re going to be
watching this surface front push north into southeast Nebraska
over the next few hours, with an isolated storm or two possibly
developing later this afternoon. The upper-level shortwave
pushes into north-central Kansas around 7pm this evening,
kicking off storms in northeastern Kansas. A line of these
storms will move north into southeast Nebraska around 8-9pm
getting into Lincoln/Omaha around 10-11pm. This line of storms
will lift into northeast Nebraska after midnight. The second
round of storms develop near the Nebraska Panhandle this evening
and develop into a bowing line that will push into our area
around 1-2AM. Significant wind threat with this line of storms,
with potential for 70+ mph winds.

Sunday will start off with lingering cooler and cloudy
conditions from the overnight storms. It`s going to take some
time for our environment to recover, with clouds maybe not
burning off until early afternoon. The developing surface low
has trended farther north, deepening which will strengthen the
surface pressure gradient across our area. Because of this
we`ll see stronger winds develop out of the south, with gusts 35
to 45 mph expected starting mid-morning through the afternoon.
The first storms will develop either over northeast Nebraska or
southeast South Dakota around 6pm. CAPE values of around 3500
J/kg pooling along the warm front as well as 0-6km bulk shear
values of 35-40 kt should support discrete supercells
initially. Later in the evening closer to 9pm the low-level jet
intensifies, bringing stronger winds at 850mb into southeast
Nebraska. This should light up storms all along the cold front
from around Red Cloud northeast through Columbus and Thurston.
500-mb winds show steering flow pushing these storms east off
the frontal boundary. the best low-level shear will be over
northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and northwest
Iowa Sunday evening, lending to the greatest potential for
embedded supercells and strong tornadoes in this area. However,
there will still be enough shear for a few supercells farther
south along the line of storms after 9pm for a tornado or two to
develop as far south as I-80. This line of strong to severe
storms clears east of our area by around 3-4am.

While the storms moved off to the east, the front does not
follow, staying put across our area into Monday acting as a
focus for more strong-to-severe storms on Monday. There are
differences in the CAMs on where exactly the front will be
Monday morning, with the HRRR keeping it just north of the
Omaha-Lincoln metros. Other hi-res models have it farther south,
closer to Nebraska City. It`s location will greatly influence
the areas with severe weather potential on Monday. Storms are
expected to develop initially over north-central Kansas
potentially during the early afternoon, moving into southeast
Nebraska mid-afternoon into the early evening. All modes of
severe weather will again be possible, with tornadoes, large
hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. These storms should
clear out of our area by 10-11pm.

Tuesday and beyond we finally get a break! The front shifts
south pushing the severe threat south and east of our area and
bringing in a cooler Canadian air mass for mid-week next week.
Tuesday will be much cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s
across our area, with highs moderating back up to solidly in the
mid 60s on Wednesday. Our next chances for rain hold off until
later next week with temperatures warming back up toward next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon with winds shifting to east or
southeasterly at the terminals. We could see an isolated storm
develop, with a 20% chance impacting KOMA or KLNK around 22-00Z.
Better chances for storms (70-80%) arrive closer to 04Z at KLNK
and KOMA with storms initially coming up from the south. Some of
these could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes possible. A second line of storms will be moving in
from the west late tonight, getting to KOFK around 07Z, KLNK
around 0730Z, and KOMA closer to 08Z. This one could have a
pretty strong surge of westerly winds, of 50kt+. Behind these
storms, we see low stratus develop over northeast Nebraska with
cigs around 1500-2000ft impacting KOFK into Sunday morning.
Winds will shift back to the southeast once the storms clear,
with skies gradually clearing across the area by late morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

085
FXUS63 KGID 161754
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1254 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread coverage of strong to severe storms is likely this evening
  to tonight (mainly between 6PM-1AM). All severe hazards will
  be possible (large hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging
  wind gusts up to near 70 MPH and an isolated tornado may be
  possible)

- A few more severe storms (threat concentrated mainly north of
  I-80) will again be possible Sunday afternoon to evening.
  Baseball size hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to
  70 MPH may be possible within the strongest storms. A few
  tornadoes will also be possible.

- A 3rd consecutive day of severe activity will roll into Monday evening,
  though the threat will mainly be concentrated south and east
  of the Tri-Cities.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns look return
  for likely to return to a southwest portion of the area
  Sunday given strong southerly winds blowing near 20-30 MPH and
  gusting as high as 30-40 MPH.

- Highs in the mid 80s and 90s today and Sunday will drop to the upper
  50s to low 70 Tuesday following the passage of a cold front
  Monday. A steady increase in highs will likely trail through
  the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026


Today...Widespread afternoon to evening severe weather potential.

The chance for severe weather will return each night through Monday
with the best potential for more widespread activity occurring this
afternoon and tonight. These active next few day comes as an upper-
level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A stationary front
that glided south and into Kansas overnight, will be expected to
switch directions and shift back north later this afternoon and
evening. This feature will likely help trigger off some afternoon and
evening severe convection across much of Kansas and Nebraska.

The airmass surging in behind the northward lifting boundary will
serve as a source of fuel for these storms as a moist (mid 50s to
low 60s dewpoints) and unstable airmass (2,000-3,5000J/kg of CAPE)
marches in from behind. In addition, a moodiest amount of shear (40-
50kts of bulk shear) from veering winds and steep low-to-mid level
lapse rates (7-9 C/km) point towards an all severe hazard scenario at
first (large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible).

Storms that erupt earlier in the afternoon (6-8PM window) may start
out more discrete and supercellular in nature before congealing into
an expansive storm cluster later this evening. The best potential
for a brief tornado spin up would occur along this earlier window
while LCLs are at their lowest points and storm inflow is less
likely to be altered from neighboring storms. Storms later on,
especially as the nocturnal 50-60kt low-level jet winds up, could
quickly morph into a expansive MCS that races east/northeast across
much of the area through the rest of the evening and night. Damaging
wind will quickly become the primary hazard with the 6z HRRR even
suggesting a bowing/QLCS structure forming later on in these storms
life cycle. The severe threat should wane after 1AM as the last
lingering storms generally drop below severe criteria. A few
localized areas of flooding may have to be monitored for locations
that receive an extended period of the heavier downpours.

As result of today`s conditions, an enhanced risk of severe weather
will be in place across our far western portions of the area (areas
mainly west of a line from Buffalo to Franklin counties in Nebraska
and Phillip county in Kansas) with a slight risk across the rest of
the area. Storms will generally have the best potential to materialize
across the enhanced risk area. Before any convective activity takes
place this afternoon, highs should be on track to reach the mid 80s
to low 90s with steady 10-15MPH easterly winds, turning more
southeasterly through the day.


Sunday...Potentially heightened severe threat, mainly concentrated
north of I-80.

The final shower/storms lingering behind Saturday nights activity
should be well clear of the area come Sunday morning. Yet another
potentially severe event may also be possible Sunday afternoon to
evening. The feature of note that will drive the storm chances
Sunday will the the presence of a strengthening surface low across
western Kansas/Nebraska. The track of this surface cyclone will be
crucial for identifying where the warm sector will lie and where the
peak daytime destabilization will take place (broad area of 2,000-
3,000J/kg CAPE with 7-9 C/km low-to-mid level lapse rates).

The latest CAM guidance continues to show that a triple point
(where the cold front, warm front and dryline meet) tracking right
through the heart of south central Nebraska during the afternoon.
All of the essential ingredients needed for a higher end type of
severe event currently look to be present (instability, shear and
moisture). The biggest question yet to be fully understood is where
storms will initialize and how expansive storm coverage may become.

The latest 6z HRRR guidance continues to keep a majority of the
activity further northward and closer to the triple point rather
than along the dryline stretched out to the south (where the NAMNEST
has been suggesting). If this scenario is actualized, the better
storm potential would be mainly concentrated north of I-80 with very
few storms elsewhere. The Day-2 SPC convective outlook keeps a
majority of central Nebraska included in an enhanced risk.

Temperatures for Sunday could warm up to the 90s to maybe even the
low triple digit across a few north central Kansas locations. Given
the condensed pressure gradient from the deepening surface low,
gusty southerly winds up to 30-40 MPH look to file in across much of
north central Kansas and east central Nebraska. The gusty winds in
combination with a fairly prevalent dry slot protruding along the
southwest trail of the surface low looks likely to bring near
critical to critical fire weather concerns back to our far southern
Nebraska and north central Kansas areas for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

This evening-overnight: No major changes in the latest thinking
regarding severe weather potential. Still appears the main
threat area will focus in the far E/SE portions of the forecast
area...along and ahead of a weak boundary. There`s not a lot of
temperature differences on either side, and winds are weak such
that convergence isn`t very strong either. Main differentiators
is moisture, with dew points in the mid 50s in places like
Hebron vs. lower 30s in the Tri-Cities. It got quite warm/hot
out there today, so areas that do have decent low level moisture
have moderate instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst
steep mid level lapse rates over 8 C/km. Wind shear is modest,
but sufficient, for organized deep convection with latest SPC
mesoA page indicating 30-40kt of effective deep layer shear,
decreasing with SW extent. Forecast soundings and sfc T/Td
spreads >30 degrees suggest inverted-V profiles/elevated bases
and wind gusts as the primary severe threat. The steep mid level
lapse rates and modest shear also support a severe hail threat,
particularly in the initial cores. Expect fairly quiet
conditions between midnight through early afternoon Saturday.

Saturday PM: The next round of potential severe weather will
come as early as late Saturday afternoon, but more likely during
the evening into early overnight hours. A deepening upper trough
over the W CONUS will begin to exert it`s influence by later in
the day in the form of modest height falls and difluent and
divergent upper level flow. Latest CAMs appear to be converging
on a general solution where today`s weak boundary stalls out,
then lifts northward as a warm front during the afternoon,
reaching central Nebraska by 00Z Sunday. Most likely area for
convective initiation will favor areas to our west along the
High Plains within a broad swath of Erly upslope flow and closer
to the arriving height falls. This activity will likely congeal
into one or two MCSs that roll E/NE during the late evening and
overnight, sustained by a strong LLJ increasing to 50-60kt by
03Z. Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000
J/kg), strong effective deep layer shear (40-50kt) - including
strong upper level storm-relative flow/venting - and very steep
low to mid level lapse rates all suggest potential for upper-
end type hail and damaging wind. In fact, wind-driven large hail
could be a concern. Will also need to watch the southern end of
an expected MCS or any embedded supercells, esp ones that
interact with the warm front, for a few tornadoes. This would be
most concerning in the 00-03Z time frame as LCLs lower and low
level SRH ramps up with the aforementioned LLJ.

The above scenario is the one that appears to be most probable
at this time (MCS rolling off the High Plains later in the day
with primarily a hail/wind threat), but isolated late afternoon
CI eastward into our area along the warm front is also
plausible...a la the 18Z HRRR. This scenario is highly
conditional due to some capping and weaker forcing, but
potentially high- impact, if it were to pan out. This scenario
would increase the high- end hail threat (up to around baseball
size) and also probably the tornado threat. Want to see more CAM
consistency before ramping up this messaging.

Sunday: appears any convection from Saturday night will have
shifted N/NE of the area by sunrise Sunday AM...setting the
stage for strong destabilization of a broadening warm sector. In
general, appears there will be most of the ingredients necessary
for a higher-end severe weather threat, including strong
tornadoes...but as always, the details matter and are still
murky this far out. With the lack of AM convection, don`t think
instability will be an issue, and the arrival time of stronger
upper level forcing appears to be well-timed towards the peak
heating hours. So even through mid level temps will be quite
warm (14C+) early in the day...some cooling/height falls
towards 00Z Mon along with strong destabilization should be
enough to support robust CI. Once storms form, should have
most/all of the ingredients in place for significant severe
weather...with the main uncertainty lying in the location of a
likely triple point (closer to Lexington or closer to Tri-
Cities) and QUALITY of boundary layer moisture. Some models
(e.g. 12Z EC) really mix the BL and lowers Tds into the
50s...whereas the NAM shields the BL a bit more and maintains
mid to upper 60s Tds through the late afternoon. RRFS is
somewhat in between. Thus...this casts some uncertainty on
mainly the tornado threat...at least early on in the convective
cycle. Threat could increase in time - even per the 12Z EC -
with gradual lowering of LCLs and increasing low level shear.
Not sure what convective mode would be by then, though. Still
plenty of time to hash out those details.

System as a whole has trended slower...which brings more of our
area into play for another round of significant severe weather
potential on Monday. This looks to be our last day (for at least
a few days) of severe weather threat as the upper trough finally
moves through Monday night. Haven`t looked into details of
Monday and beyond very much today since there`s plenty of
impactful weather in the short term.

One last thing...still monitoring the potential for a wedge of
critical fire weather conditions to punch into far W/SW zones
behind the dry line Sunday afternoon. Phillips down into Rooks
County would be most at risk, even if they see rain Saturday
night, as much of the fine (1hr) fuels are still susceptible to
large fire growth.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR and fairly quiet for at least the next few hours amidst
breezy Erly flow.

Primary aviation concern will come late this evening and
overnight with development overhead and/or arrival of
thunderstorms from the W. Expect an organized cluster of
thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts to arrive
generally in the 03-06Z time frame. Have gone prevailing with
strong storms/wind, and used PROB30 group for the severe level
winds around 04-06Z. Most of this round should exit fairly
quickly by 09-10Z, leaving in it`s wake a wind shift back to the
ESE/SE and breezy speeds.

On Sunday...winds will pick up out of the SE throughout the
morning, becoming sustained 15-20kt and gusts 30-35kt (highest
at GRI). Appears a wind shift to the SW/W/NW and next round of
strong to severe storms will be possible late Sun aftn into the
eve...with greatest coverage of storms favoring GRI more than
EAR. Expect VFR conditions Sunday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion