Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

135
FXUS63 KOAX 070329
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1029 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with
  highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Storm chances return to northeast Nebraska Tuesday night, with
  a strong to severe storm possible. Additional storm chances
  continue daily into Friday.

- A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Quiet conditions will prevail this evening as the area remains on
the northeastern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
Four Corners region. At the surface, a broad corridor of high
pressure extends from eastern Nebraska into the Upper Midwest. Light
winds and humid conditions will support the potential for patchy fog
overnight. However, gustier winds just above the surface should keep
fog mainly confined to low-lying and wind-protected area.

On Tuesday, mid-level ridging will continue to overspread the
region, bringing afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Later
Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance moving across the northern Plains
will help dampen the ridge across the area, transitioning the
pattern toward more zonal flow aloft. This disturbance will also
push a quasi-stationary frontal boundary into the northern Plains,
with strong to severe storms expected to develop along it across the
Dakotas. A few strong to severe storms may persist far enough south
to move into far northeast Nebraska late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) and hail (up to 1
inch) would be the primary hazards, though both instability and deep-
layer shear are expected to decreased with southward extent into the
forecast area.

Wednesday through Friday...

Wednesday through the remainder of the work week will feature
generally zonal flow aloft, with a series of shortwave disturbances
passing through the region. These waves will gradually push the
aforementioned quasi-stationary front southward over several days
while bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms along
and near the boundary.

Wednesday will be another warm and humid day, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Increasing low-level moisture transport
will push dew points into the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat
index values in the mid to upper 90s. Thunderstorm chances return
Wednesday, though the potential for afternoon/early evening
development appears rather isolated. Better chances arrive late
Wednesday night into early Thursday as stronger mid-level flow
overspreads the region and helps initiate storms along the frontal
boundary, likely positioned somewhere near east-central Nebraska
into west-central Iowa. Shear and instability do not appear overly
impressive, but should be sufficient for scattered strong to severe
storms.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Thursday behind the front, with
lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler airmass keeping highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Additional convective redevelopment is
expected late Thursday into Friday along the front, which by them
will likely be located closer to southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa as it continues its slow southward push. Once again,
ingredients remain sufficient, though not particularly robust, to
support a strong to severe storm or two. Friday highs will remain on
the milder side, generally in the mid to upper 80s, with lingering
showers and cloud cover possible along and behind the front.

Saturday and Beyond...

This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level
ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand
eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend.
Highs on Saturday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid
90s. By Sunday and Monday, most locations are expected to reach the
90s, with heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees in
some areas. A generally hot and humid pattern is expected to
continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are favored throughout the forecast period.
Light, southerly winds will continue, gradually backing to
southeasterly through the period. A few clouds will continue at
FL050 before clearing into the evening. Patchy fog capable of
MVFR conditions is expected overnight, but it should mostly
stay restricted to low- lying and wind protected area.
Therefore, fog has not been included in the current TAF package
due to the low confidence (20%) in impacts at the terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

908
FXUS63 KGID 062342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today, and most likely (80-90%) dry Tuesday

- Most likely chance (50-70%) for precipitation/thunderstorms
  will be Wednesday afternoon/night...Lesser chance (30-50%) on
  Thursday.

- Hotter weather pattern for the end of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet today with some afternoon cumulus, south to southeasterly
winds a bit stronger than we`ve had the last couple days with
temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

The primary points to talk about in this forecast are the
Precipitation chances for mid and late week and the warm up for
the end of the forecast.

The current ridge that is building in from the four corners
region is not overly strong and a new disturbances are moving in
from the central/northern Pacific coast and will break the ridge
down. This will cause more quasi-zonal flow across the area,
allowing for the disturbances moving across the northern Plains
to impact us. The first and best chance for more widespread
precipitation, including the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along or
near a front that will be pushed east by a disturbance over the
Northern Plains. The Grand Ensemble (including GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
indicates that at least 76% of the ensemble solutions have at
least a trace at KGRI.

For Thursday, the best potential for thunderstorms actually
exists to the west of the area, primarily out in the High
Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, then after development it is
more likely to track southeast into western Kansas. The same
Grand Ensemble for Thursday at KGRI only includes 42 % that have
at least a trace at KGRI. Meanwhile, looking further west,
Thursday night shows a 59% chance of Precip greater than a
trace. This highlights the greater potential for precipitation
west of the area. That doesn`t mean it will necessarily be dry,
but it`s not as good of a chance as Wednesday.

Temperatures will be seasonal throughout the week. Highs in the
low 90s ahead of the wave on Wednesday with Thursday and Friday
briefly cooler (highs in the mid 80s).

Things change by the end of the weekend, as the overall upper
pattern changes with a ridge building into the intermountain
west. It will heat up for the week of July 13th. That being
said, watching the trends of the ECMWF Ensemble over the past 48
hours, the trend has actually been decreasing...in terms of
some of the crazy high temperatures (exceeding 100 degrees). Now
don`t take this to mean that it won`t still be a heat
wave/significant warm up, but it may not be as hot as some
guidance suggested a couple days ago. Wednesday and Thursday
July 15th-16th look to be some of the hottest days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Models continue to show the better potential for any
preciptiation remaining well of to the WNW of the terminal
sites. Cloud cover looks to mainly be FEW...some bases may be
around 5-6k ft, otherwise clouds are expected to mainly be in
the upper levels. Not looking at any notable changes in winds
through the period...remaining south-southeasterly, with most
speeds around 10-15 MPH, though a few gusts closer to 20 MPH are
not out of the question Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion