Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

771
FXUS63 KOAX 020520
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory lingers into Monday morning, driven
  by areas of freezing drizzle and icy road potential across
  southeast Nebraska.

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through
  much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow Morning:

Dreary conditions are in place this evening, with Nighttime
Microphysics RGB imagery showing sub-freezing clouds spreading
northward from its thicker coverage across southeast Nebraska.
Temperatures underneath the clouds have been holding just above
freezing, with very light easterly winds, as weak warm air advection
and vorticity advection drive areas of drizzle across northern
Kansas. Short-term models indicate that we`ll slowly continue
cooling into the overnight hours, with cloud bases trending down and
a few areas of freezing drizzle developing across southeast Nebraska
into southern Iowa. Some of the better guidance that has best
depicted ongoing areas of drizzle have been lowered visibilities,
which start becoming more widespread after midnight. As it occurs,
near to just below freezing temperatures will allow for a light
glaze of ice to form, making for slick surfaces. Recent observations
of road temperatures hover about a degree above the ambient air
values, making the most likely spots to see any slickness being
bridges, sidewalks, and other common cold spots. Overnight low
temperatures are aiming to fall into the 20s area-wide by 5 AM,
rebounding above freezing by 11 AM. A Winter Weather Advisory is out
for the areas most likely to see freezing drizzle, covering the
southernmost two tiers of counties across southeast Nebraska through
9 AM tomorrow morning. Amounts and coverage so far of any freezing
precipitation has been under-performing and/or thwarted by
just-above freezing conditions, but the overnight drizzle seems
to be enough of a threat to carry forward the low-end advisory
into the overnight hours.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday afternoon, the low clouds will begin lifting as mixing
increases slightly and continued southeasterly winds push
temperatures up into the 40s. During the evening hours, continued
lift in the lower levels and gradual moisture transport will help
fill in deep layers of cloud cover -- facilitating old fashioned
drizzle into the area. In fact, temperatures at their lowest are
not forecast to fall below freezing through the entire work
week, simplifying some of the messaging and relieving the area
of any potential headaches. As the drizzle fills in Monday
evening, expect visibility values to begin dropping for much of
the area to below 1 mile at times heading into Tuesday. During
the morning hours, we`ll find ourselves on the northern edge of
continued warm air advection, with marginal lift lasting through
much of the day. Light rain seems to be a stretch at this
point, while models instead favor continued drizzle and only
brief bouts of light, stratiform rain. Despite the dreariness,
temperatures trend upwards, topping out in the upper 40s and 50s
as lighter, easterly winds continue to hold in place.

Low clouds and areas of drizzle will linger into the morning hours
Wednesday, eventually giving way after noon and letting temperatures
see another bump into widespread highs in the 50s. Heading into
Thursday, we`ll find ourselves in between the departing shortwave
trough from the previous couple of days and an incoming longwave
trough to the west. Temperatures will see a large bump into the
upper 60s to just over 70 degrees, the warmest day of the
forecast. As of now, gusty winds of 25-30 mph out of the
southeast will be the only other forecast detail worth
mentioning Thursday, as fire weather will be limited due to
dewpoints climbing into the 40s in the absence of any
particularly dry airmass. Granted, models do tend to
underestimate how dry we can get in the mid-to-long range
(especially the NBM), but the drizzle and generally moist
conditions for the few days prior will keep overall fire danger
in the high to very high category.

During the late evening/overnight hours into Friday, the main wave
to the west will arrive and bring our first measurable chance
for thunderstorms and an outside shot at hail. There will be a
narrow corridor of overlap between the steeper lapse 700-500 mb
rates and deeper layer shear, that ends up east of the forecast
area by Friday afternoon. Behind it and to the north/northwest
of the incoming dry slot, a band of stratiform rain will take a
bit longer before scooting to the northeast, primarily affecting
northeast Nebraska/northwest of where the main surface low ends
up tracking (based on the latest runs of the global models).
Going through the weekend, we`ll see continued
westerly/southwesterly flow and a drier airmass that could spell
increasing fire weather concerns that will depend on how gusty
winds will get at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to fall to MVFR over the next few
hours from south to north. MVFR ceilings continue to fall to
fuel alternate heights by early Monday morning across the area.
IFR ceilings are most likely to develop at LNK through the
morning hours. IFR ceilings may approach the OMA vicinity, but
confidence is low on these ceilings reaching the terminal at
this time. Outside of ceilings, there is a low (10-30%) chance
of freezing drizzle developing at both LNK and OMA during the
early morning hours. With confidence remaining low, have not
included this in the TAF forecast at this time. Trends will be
monitored if inclusion is needed. By Monday afternoon, ceilings
may only improve slightly, climbing to high-end MVFR briefly
before quickly falling after sunset Monday evening. IFR to LIFR
ceilings are anticipated across the area towards the end of the
TAF period with fog or drizzle expected as well. This would also
reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR. Temperatures will be above
freezing during this time, so no freezing precipitation is
forecast at the surface. Winds remain out of the east to
southeast through the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ078-
     088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

331
FXUS63 KGID 020532
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1132 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pesky light freezing drizzle and/or patchy fog COULD become
  an issue late tonight into Monday morning (any freezing
  drizzle most favored counties along/east of Hwy 281).

- Although there could be some legitimate steadier showers here
  or there, Monday night-Tuesday night/Wed AM mainly just look
  very drizzly/at times foggy (greatest fog coverage probably
  Mon night-Tues AM). Fortunately, the vast majority of this
  drizzle should be of the plain/non-frozen variety.

- Wednesday afternoon-Thursday daytime should mainly be a dry
  break as we reside "in between" low pressure systems. After a
  few very "gloomy" days, sunshine and warmer temps will also
  return.

- Our next systems arrives Thursday night-Friday, and is
  currently expected to bring mainly rain potential (most wintry
  precip looks to focus mainly to our north/west). There are
  also increasing signs of thunderstorm potential (especially
  Thurs night-Fri AM)...MAYBE even enough instability for at
  least a small hail threat?

- Next weekend currently looks mainly dry in the wake of the
  departing Friday system

- Temperature-wise: highs mainly 40s Mon-Tues under extensive
  clouds, then warming to mostly 50s Wednesday and around 70
  Thursday before a mix of 50s-60s Friday-Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED EARLY:
As mentioned as pretty likely in the main discussion below, we
did in fact cancel the Winter Weather Advisory a bit early for
the 9 included counties in our far south-southeastern CWA. While
some roads likely remain slick from the earlier wintry mix, that
showery precipitation has already moved out for the day.

Evening-overnight shifts will have to closely monitor mainly
the eastern 1/3 to 1-2 of our CWA for the possibility (not a
sure thing) of light freezing drizzle development, which if it
materializes could necessitate another Winter Weather Advisory.
However, any impacts from this are...1) less certain...2) at
least several hours away...so did not even really consider
extending the now-cancelled Advisory to extend farther out in
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
 COMMENTS:

- In terms of forecast changes worth mentioning:
1) High temps have trended down a bit Mon-Wed due to extensive
cloud cover/periodic drizzle.

2) Limited areas of "patchy fog" have been introduced to
tonight-Monday AM, and higher confidence "areas of fog" have
been introduced to Mon night-Tues AM. Cannot rule out at least
localized dense fog.

- As for "big picture comments", our weather over the next week
  appears to be coming into a little better focus versus 24
  hours ago, with our main/potential issues already covered in
  the Key Messages above. In addition to the aforementioned
  light freezing drizzle potential tonight-Monday AM and fog
  potential the next few nights, our next possible concern looks
  to be thunderstorm potential mainly Thurs night-Fri AM.
  Although too early to have much confidence in details, current
  model data suggests there could be enough elevated instability
  to support a few stronger storms with mainly a hail threat.
  Honestly, if this system slows down much at all from current
  projections, Friday afternoon could perhaps even feature a
  very early-season severe storm threat (as of right now this
  appears to mainly focus slightly to our east-southeast (as
  supported by latest NSSL ML Total Severe Probability
  guidance).

- One thing NOT currently in our Hazardous Weather Outlook
  (HWOGID), but at least bears watching is fire weather
  potential for Thursday. While the damp/drizzle conditions
  earlier in the week could ease the fire threat a little, finer
  fuels (grasses) will dry out quickly. Southerly gusts of 20+
  MPH currently appear probably for Thursday afternoon, but as
  of now relative humidity (RH) looks to remain well above our
  critical 20% threshold (albeit somewhat close in our far
  western zones).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
It`s been a fairly busy day around here, as the most aggressive
model solutions from the last couple of days ended up being
"most right" about the concentrated batch of mixed wintry precip
(primarily a sleet/snow mix with perhaps a touch of freezing
rain) that started off in very light/non-impactful fashion
across much of our western/northern CWA this morning, but then
really "took off" within especially our southeastern quadrant
this afternoon. Based on 511 road reports, there is fairly
widespread coverage of partially-to-completely covered roads
with either ice/slush/snow within much of the Advisory area.
Speaking of which, earlier this morning we ended up issuing a
formal Winter Weather Advisory initially for 7 of our
southeastern-most counties, but then earlier this afternoon
tacked on Clay/Fillmore counties as the northern fringes of
steady precip also got into those counties as well. Thanks to a
tongue of weak elevated instability nosing northward into our
southeast CWA, especially some of our KS counties also
experienced several lightning strikes from non-severe storms.
SIDE NOTE: on top of all the actual WEATHER going on...a 4.1
magnitude earthquake (fairly strong for our area) occurred in
Webster County around 1 PM! (see USGS website for more details).

Back to weather: In the big picture of the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
the low amplitude/quick moving shortwave trough traversing the
Central Plains that sparked our round of wintry precip. At the
surface (and as so often occurs in these setups), persistent
easterly breezes (mainly sustained 10-15 MPH with slightly
higher gusts), along with extensive cloud cover over most of our
CWA, has helped hold temps a bit below forecast values (most of
our CWA on track to top out no warmer than 30-35. However, more
sun has broken out especially over the western 1/4th of our CWA
to boost things into the upper 30s-low 40s.


- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Although the Winter Weather Advisory in our southeast officially
runs until 6 PM, latest radar data/short term model trends
strongly suggest that things are moving out pretty steadily
(most lingering precip now confined to Jewell/Thayer counties),
and will probably cancel most counties once this discussion is
completed. Any lingering/steadier precip should vacate even our
extreme east-southeast edges no later than 5-6 PM.


- LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
As the night wears on, light east-southeasterly breezes and
moist/upslope low level flow will allow low stratus to persist
and or/move into essentially our entire forecast area (probably
arriving to far western zones last). While not expected to be a
"major deal", an analysis of low-level cloud thickness/relative
humidity via RAP model suggests that very light freezing drizzle
could develop mainly post-midnight and mainly within counties
along/east of Highway 281 (farther west, moisture depth is less
supportive of freezing drizzle). Right now, freezing drizzle is
only considered a POSSIBILITY (not a "sure thing") and thus no
formal Advisories are in effect, but this will need monitored
closely. Otherwise, at least patchy areas of fog are looking
possible overnight, with latest HRRR painting the greatest fog
potential within counties along/south of I-80. Sometimes models
"over-do" fog under low stratus, but with today`s precipitation
and light breezes, it cannot be ruled out (including the
possibility of localized dense fog). Low temps tonight are aimed
upper 20s most areas (clouds holding up reading from falling
far), except colder low 20s far west/north where the night will
start off clearest.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
For the morning hours, we will see a continuation of at least
patchy fog potential (mainly counties along/south of I-80, along
with the aforementioned potential for light freezing drizzle
mainly along/east of Hwy 281. Fortunately, by 10 AM temperatures
should warm above freezing, turning any freezing drizzle to
plain/non-freezing drizzle. For the afternoon, while some very
patchy/lingering drizzle cannot be ruled out, opted to actually
carry a dry forecast as it should mainly just be a very
cloudy/cool and somewhat breezy day with sustained southeast
winds 10-15 MPH/gusts up to 15-25 MPH). Given the expectation of
extensive low clouds, high temps were nudged down a few
degrees..most areas now aimed 41-45...except upper 40s possible
extreme west (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas).

Monday night, the potential for more widespread (mainly NON-
freezing) drizzle and areas of fog (possibly some dense) really
ramps up as the low-level further saturate in the presence of
light east-southeasterly breezes. Although actual rain amounts
will not be significant (drizzle rarely is), our official precip
chances (PoPs) are also likely not nearly high enough to convey
the very high probability of drizzle. Low temps mainly 33-39
degrees (slightly above freezing), but far north/northwest
counties COULD drop just below freezing so light freezing
drizzle potential will need monitored.


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
Although we could end up getting some steadier showers as a mid
level shortwave trough passes overhead (especially Tues evening-
overnight), precip type for especially most of the daytime hours
should continue as steady/widespread drizzle...with areas of fog
likely lasting until at least Noon as well. As was the case for
Monday, high temps were nudged down slightly, now mainly mid-
upper 40s at most.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME:
The vast majority of our CWA will likely be dry for the vast
majority of these 36 hours, as we end up "in between" systems.
Our official forecast still carries some small rain chances
Wednesday daytime-evening, but latest NAM/GFS really lean toward
the dry side. Sunshine should also make a triumphant return
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with high temps responding
accordingly (highs mainly upper 50s-low 60s Wednesday and upper
60s-low 70s Thursday...possibly mid 70s southwest. As touched on
above, will have to watch for possible fire weather concerns as
southerly breezes pick up Thursday.


- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although far too early to "count on" any details, confidence is
at least growing in the overall timing/arrival of our next
upper system. Rain showers/some thunderstorms (MAYBE a few
strong?) appear likely mainly Thurs night-Fri AM, with a cold
front then charging through during the day Friday and in theory
shunting any Friday afternoon thunderstorm threat at least
slightly to our east-southeast. Our far northern/western zones
could flirt with catching some snow on the backside of this
system, but right now this MAINLY looks to focus at least
slightly north- through-west of our CWA. High temps Friday could
vary more than currently advertised depending on frontal
position, but are currently aimed from low-mid 50s north/west to
low-mid 60s south/southeast.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Although our official forecast technically clips some of our KS
counties with some very "iffy" slight rain chances, the latest
ECMWF/GFS strongly support our going dry forecast for at least
the vast majority of our CWA. High temps currently aimed near-60
Saturday and then warmer mid 60s-low 70s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR conditions likely during TAF period.

MVFR stratus will lower during the early morning hours, becoming
IFR by sunrise. IFR stratus will linger into the late morning-
early afternoon hours, though there remains some uncertainty how
quickly stratus rises. Regardless at least a brief (few hour)
transition to MVFR ceilings are likely Monday afternoon, with
the highest ceilings at KEAR, closes to the edge of the stratus
deck. Around sunset, ceilings lower back to IFR, becoming LIFR
late in the TAF period. Fog is also favored to develop after
sunset, mainly after 03z. Sub-VFR visibilities are possible with
this fog, though the density remains uncertain. It is possible
dense or LIFR fog could develop. For now indicating the fog
potential with a 4SM BR group.

Additionally light freezing drizzle may graze KGRI overnight
(through 12z), though the best chances look to remain east of
KGRI and well east of KEAR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

If you thought it has been unusually warm so far this winter,
you are right! With February now in the books, the traditional
winter months of December-January-February (DJF) ended as the
5th warmest DJF in Hastings (33.6 degrees) and 6th warmest
DJF in Grand Island (33.2 degrees) since record keeping began
(based on average temperature).

In both cases, this was the warmest winter locally since the
winter of 1991-1992, when the average temperature was 34.6
degrees and 35.1 degrees, respectively. The winter of 1991-1992
remains the warmest winter on record at both sites.

In comparison to normal, the average temperatures at both sites
was just over 5 degrees above average for the 3 month period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Davis
CLIMATE...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion