Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

777
FXUS63 KOAX 201103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Monday.
  Expect afternoon heat index values of 105 to 110 with
  overnight heat indices remaining in the 70s.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday
  afternoon and evening (10-20% chance in northeast Nebraska and
  west-central Iowa). Damaging winds will be the primary
  threat.

- Cooler weather returns by the middle of the week, with high
  temperatures falling back into the 80s and even some 70s
  Thursday. There will be increasing chances for showers and
  storms Wednesday night into Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Evening analysis showed a warm front stretched from northwest
to southeast across far northeast NE into southwest IA and slowly
pushing eastward. To the northwest, a broken line of showers
and even a cluster of severe storms had developed along a wind
shift across SD into western NE, but had since largely
dissipated as of 930 PM with slightly drier air aloft and weaker
shear this direction. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that
nothing additional will form. However, given plenty of
instability to work with and strengthening moisture transport as
we go into the overnight, wouldn`t completely rule out another
storm popping up with potential for it to produce some gusty
winds if it does. One other thing of note overnight will be some
fog potential along the aforementioned warm front, mainly in
within a county or two of the Missouri River. Model soundings
suggest winds aloft will be strong enough to keep it somewhat
patchy, but we did see development along that same boundary last
night/this morning.

With the warm front continuing to push east, the warmest air of the
year thus far looks to build in for Monday. Expect highs in the
upper 90s and lower 100s for much of the area, with latest short
term guidance giving a 60 to 100% chance of hitting at least 100
degrees near and west of the Missouri River. In addition, dewpoints
look to remain in the 70s across much of the area, yielding heat
indices in the 105 to 110 range. A Heat Advisory remains in place
through 10 PM for the entire area.

By the afternoon, attention turns to strong to severe storm chances
as a cold front starts to work into the area from the north. Latest
CAMs are in good agreement that we see scattered storms start to
develop along the boundary in northeast NE into west-central IA by 3-
4 PM. Once again, plenty of instability to work with, but strongest
deep layer shear looks to be confined behind the front. That said,
there could be just enough overlap right along the boundary to yield
some degree of storm organization and a threat for strong to severe
storms. The main threat would be damaging downburst winds as storms
collapse, with deep inverted V model soundings. Still some questions
on how far south these storms will make it, but latest guidance
confines them to areas north of an east-west line through the Omaha
metro. A second round of showers and storms is looking possible (20-
30% chance) overnight as a shortwave trough approaches. These look
unlikely to be severe with most of the instability scoured out
behind the front.


Behind the front, we`ll see relief from the heat, especially in the
Wednesday-Friday period. Temperatures on Tuesday look to remain
close to average for this time of year, topping out in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, but expect widespread lower to mid 80s Wednesday, and
even a few spots staying stuck in the 70s on Thursday. Something
else to note is that latest HRRR guidance suggests we could see a
little smoke make it to the surface with the subsidence behind the
front. At this point, concentrations look like they`ll be rather
low, but maybe just enough to notice. Otherwise, we`ll also see some
higher chances for more widespread showers and a few storms
Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday as a
couple shortwave troughs slide through with a decent surface low
passing by to our south (40-70% chance both nights). Severe weather
chances continue to look minimal (under 5%) with very little
instability in place.

Now for some unfortunate news. The upper level ridging that brought
us the heat looks to edge back eastward for the weekend, with highs
looking to get back into upper 80s and 90s. On top of that, long
term outlooks favor warmer-than-average temperatures continuing into
the first few days of August.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
winds already shifting increasingly southerly on their way to
being out of the southwest later this morning at or just above
10 kts. The main sticking point of the forecast remains shower
and storm chances later this afternoon/evening, with another
round overnight/early Tuesday morning. As of now, the chances
for a shower or storm to impact one of the TAF sites remains low
(20-30% chance) due to sparse coverage of storms, with increased
coverage closer to 08-12z tomorrow morning. As storms develop
this evening, a wind shift will also move through, switching
directions northerly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016-
     017.
IA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

802
FXUS63 KGID 201127
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to 103
  degrees with around 60-80% of the area hitting the triple
  digits today.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10AM to 10PM as Heat
  Index values climb to as high as 105-110 degrees.

- A cold front arriving to central Nebraska this afternoon may
  stir up a few non-severe storms between mainly 3-8PM. Much of
  the area should remain dry with only a few storms possible to
  develop north of I-80 (10-30% chances).

- Though a few isolated/scattered storms may redevelop across
  the area again Tuesday (10-20% chances), more widespread and
  greater storm probabilities will come later in the week:
  30-70% Wednesday and 40-80% Thursday.

- Temperatures after today will dip back to the upper 70s to low
  90s for the period Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026


The warmest day of the week and likely the warmest day so far of the
year for many locations will be expected today. Highs are forecast
to reach the upper 90s to as high as 103 degrees with around 60-80%
of the area likely to see highs reach the triple digits. With
dewpoints forecast to range the mid 60s to mid 70s, generally
increasing towards the east, widespread heat index values of 102-110
will be expected. A few Nebraska locations east of HWY-281 (areas
with the highest moisture content) may even see localized heat index
values up to 112 degrees (10-30% chance). A heat advisory will be in
effect across the entire forecast areas between 10AM and 10PM today.

So how does this heat compare to mid July standards? Normal highs
for mid July generally range the upper 80s. As result from the 10-15
degree above normal temperatures mixed with the high humidity, a
Major Heat Risk (level 3 of 4) will be in place across all of south
central Nebraska and across a few far north central Kansas areas.
This Major heat Risk classification suggests that all individuals
may be susceptible to heat related illnesses without the proper
use of hydration or an effective cooling source. Given light
southerly winds (5-15MPH) and mostly clear skies today, natural
sources for cooling will be limited as reflected by the High to
Extreme Wet Bulb Globe Temperature values (level 3/4 of 4).

Beyond the heat today, a few afternoon thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out, especially across locations north of the interstate (10-30%
chances). A cold front, racing south across South Dakota tonight,
will later be expected to reach portions of central Nebraska by this
afternoon to evening. This front will eventually provide some heat
relief for the area. In addition to the heat relief, a few storms
between 3-8PM may be possible to form along this boundary as it
passes through north central to central Nebraska. Most locations,
especially ones south of I-80, should remain dry or unimpacted.
These storms, given weak upper-level support, will not be expected
to become severe and will be fairly scattered in coverage. In terms
of high resolution model guidance, the HRRR is slightly more aggressive
with the storm coverage than the NAMNEST, though the HRRR still
depicts these storms/showers to be more short-lived and fairly
weak.

Aloft, a ridge that instigated this past weekend warmup and has been
fending off precipitation chances lately, will start to lose some of
its span of control. A shortwave trough, presently located across
the Northern Plains, will soon dig southeast, bringing along
height/pressure falls to mainly the eastern half of the area. This
should bring the jet stream down to just northeast of the area with
northwest flow setting up aloft (dictating the trajectory of any
developing storms).

Temperatures following the cold frontal passage will set up in the
upper 80s to upper 90s for Tuesday and the upper 70s to low 90s for
Wednesday. The warmest temperatures both days should generally settle
across southwest Nebraska and north central Kansas. Northerly winds
for Tuesday blowing between 10-15MPH and gusting as high as 20-30MPH
will do much of the cooling as the "cooler" airmass behind the
front is advected in. Winds for Wednesday will take on a more
easterly direction with speeds just a hare lighter from Tuesday.

Though a few 10-20% PoPs return for Tuesday from the potential of
isolated to scattered weak afternoon thunderstorms, the better and
likely more widespread precipitation potential (30-70% chances) will
come Wednesday. General agreement between the NAM and ECMWF models
show a potential MCC developing overnight Tuesday around western
Wyoming. This storm complex, given the broad northwest flow, will
have a good shot at steering itself down into central
Nebraska/Kansas on Wednesday. Though not every portion of the area
may see precipitation, all three of the long-range ensemble forecast
members (GEFS/ENS/GEPS) shows at least some of these storm/shower
remnants making down into central Nebraska/Kansas on Wednesday.
This gives us some confidence that precipitation of some magnitude
will make into into some of if not much of the area. Additional
details will get ironed out once this event becomes in range of the
short-range high resolution models.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s, warmest across
north central Kansas. Heat index values are expected to top out
around or slightly over 100 degrees. Scattered thunderstorm chances
look to remain east/south of the forecast area this afternoon-
evening. Lows tonight will be in the 70s with clear skies and light
winds.

Monday...

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the forecast period as
highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Hot temperatures combined
with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees will result in heat
index values in the mid to upper 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the entire area from 10am to 10pm Monday.

During the late afternoon-early evening hours, a cold front pushes
into far northern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is possible (15-20%) along this front. Any
storm would likely come to an end around sunset as stability
increases. Areas with the highest chance to see a storm will be
along and north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. Shear looks to be higher
than on previous days, and could support a storm on the stronger
side (gusty winds possible). The cold front steadily pushes south
across the area overnight, though lows remain in the 70s overnight.

Tuesday...

The cold front will reach portions of north central Kansas around
sunrise on Tuesday. Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest
transitions the area to a northwesterly flow pattern. Breezy winds
are expected on Tuesday behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south).

Wednesday Onwards...

Rain chances return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday as a
series of disturbances traverse through the northwesterly flow
aloft. Wherever cloud coverage and lingering convection sets up,
highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be sightly cooler, in the 80s.
At this time models support two waves of showers/storms moving
through the area: one Wednesday-Thursday AM which favors
northeastern portions of the area, and a second Thursday
evening/night which favors more central portions of the area.
There`s still plenty of time for things to change, and the exact
track of these rain chances will become clearer as we get closer in
time. Otherwise temperatures begin to climb back above normal as we
move into next weekend with ridging rebuilds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clouds breaking into the area this evening and overnight
tonight should not provide any sub VFR ceiling issues for KEAR
or KGRI. A few showers and weak thunderstorms may near mainly
KGRI between 22-1z, though confidence at this time is not
enough to include in the TAF (storm coverage more scattered
than filled in). A cold front passing through this evening will
turn wind directions from a southerly direction to a northerly
one. Gusts before the front will likely maintain below 15-20kts
with speeds expected to pick up behind the front starting
Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion