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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


000
FXUS63 KOAX 202326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing this
  morning and tomorrow night.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday
  night into Tuesday morning. Highest probabilities (60%
  chance) of rain will be south of I-80.

- Another potential storm system will may bring chances for
  precipitation regionwide Thursday and Friday. There remains uncertainty
  in timing and details of this storm system. These details
  will become more clear over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tonight and Sunday:

Surface high pressure will pass overhead through the night. With
mostly clear skies and light winds, we will hoist yet another freeze
warning for the entire forecast area as temperatures drop to or just
below freezing. It does look like this could be the the last of
the freeze products for a while. Return flow will be slow to
increase on Sunday which should keep winds fairly light but will
limit mixing. Highs on Sunday are forecast to max out in the low
60s and with the light wind, Sunday should be a beautiful day.

Monday:

Southwesterly low-level flow quickly increases overnight Sunday into
Monday ahead of an approaching weak shortwave dropping into the
northern Plains. This will send a cold front into the region Monday
afternoon and evening. Soundings ahead of this boundary show very
dry low-levels but once the atmosphere saturates behind the
boundary, showers and a few thunderstorms should become more likely
Monday evening into Tuesday morning as the boundary slides southeast
through the area.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

A secondary cold front will move into the area Tuesday ahead of a
stronger piece of upper level energy. This will bring slightly
cooler temperatures and stronger northwest winds. Gusts could be on
the order of 30+ mph Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure builds
into the area Wednesday with weak southerly flow during much of the
day. Wednesday should be another very nice day.

Thursday and Friday:

Southerly low-level flow strengthens overnight into Thursday morning
with large scale upper-level ridging over the central Plains
while a strong shortwave moves east/northeast across the Four
Corners region. Model guidance continues to produce a much more
active pattern into the early part of the weekend with strong
low-level moisture return ahead of the approaching western
shortwave. Although uncertainty in the details regarding
potential storms remains high, there is increasing trends
towards active weather Thursday night and Friday as the
shortwave closes off and the potent upper low moves across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Current clouds will
gradually diminish this evening and give way to clear skies
through the remainder of the period. Winds will be out of the
northwest for much of the period before becoming more westerly
to southwesterly Sunday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.
IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


000
FXUS63 KGID 202327
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near or below freezing are expected across the
  whole area tonight into Sunday morning. Freeze Warnings and
  Frost Advisories are in effect.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  (40% to 60% chance) Tuesday afternoon due to higher winds and
  lower humidity values.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (20% to 30%
  chance) Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Today through Sunday...

An upper level trough centered over Canada extends southward over
much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country including Nebraska and
Kansas. A surface high is present across the area with northerly
winds. This is allowing the cooler air to stay in place with high
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid 40s across western
portions of the forecast area to the mid 50s across eastern
portions. Cloud cover with some areas of precipitation is also
helping to keep temperatures cooler. Winds will be light out of the
northwest tonight and most of the forecast area is expected to be
clear to mostly clear with the exception of the southeast portion of
the area. These conditions will result in temperatures dropping to
near or below freezing across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into
Sunday morning for south central and central Nebraska and Phillips
and Smith Counties in north central Kansas. A Frost Advisory is in
effect tonight into Sunday morning for Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne,
and Rooks Counties in north central Kansas. The upper trough will
begin to exit the area on Sunday. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be fairly light and
will transition to the southwest on Sunday with mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies. This will allow for temperatures to warm up
into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday night through Tuesday night...

Winds will increase out of the south due to a tightening pressure
gradient Sunday night with some increasing high clouds. This will
result in low temperatures Sunday night only cooling into the upper
30s to lower 40s. Gusty south to southwest winds will be across most
of the area on Monday along with a surface trough allowing for
temperatures to continue to warm up with highs expected to reach the
lower 70s to lower 80s. This warm up will be hindered a little by
some high clouds Monday afternoon. An upper low/trough centered over
Canada will extend southward to Nebraska with an associated cold
front pushing southward towards the area on Monday. This front will
move through most of the forecast area Monday night. This will
contribute to an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances (up to
a 60% chance) Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night are
expected to mostly be in the 40s. Northerly winds will continue
across the area during the day on Tuesday with a surface high
present. Sustained winds of near or above 20 mph are expected across
northeastern portions of the forecast area with wind gusts of over
20 mph across the whole area. Minimum relative humidity values on
Tuesday are expected to range from around 20% to 29% leading to
possible elevated to near critical fire weather conditions during
the afternoon. This will result in cooler temperatures with highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures Tuesday night behind the cold
front with a surface high nearby will cool into the mid 30s to mid
40s.

Wednesday through Friday night...

Upper ridging will begin to impact the region on Wednesday with east
to southeast surface winds. High temperatures on Wednesday will be
fairly similar to those on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Wednesday (up to a 25% chance) into Wednesday night (up
to a 40% chance) as shortwaves move over the area. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will mostly be in the 40s with elevated southeast
winds and mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough will begin to
move over the Central Plains on Thursday with gusty southeast winds
present. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue
Thursday (up to 60%) and Thursday night (up to around 70%). Strong
to severe storms are possible (around a 20% to 30% chance) Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night due to the increase in moisture and
lift. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to be in the 40s
and 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to 60%) will continue for Friday
as the upper low/trough moves to the northeast of the area. High
temperatures, at this time, are expected to mostly be in the 70s for
Friday and the 40s for Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected. Skies remain overcast this evening,
but should gradually clear tonight. Mostly clear skies expected
through Sunday.

Light northwest winds continue tonight and turn southwesterly on
Sunday afternoon.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005-006.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion