Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

120
FXUS63 KOAX 010513
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. Heat advisories
  are posted for the Omaha metro and far southwest Iowa.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight,
  particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and
  locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms
  that develop.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of
  rain and storms waits for the evening of Saturday -
  Independence Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an amplified pattern across the CONUS
as a strong upper ridge spins anti-cyclonically over the Deep
South. Mid-level southwesterly flow stretches from SoCal to the
arrowhead of Minnesota just ahead of a cutoff low in Manitoba.

Temperatures have cooled under the mostly clear skies and heat
indices have fallen below heat headline criteria. All headlines
have been allowed to expire as overnight temperatures are
expected to fall close to 75 degrees or lower which is
considered the mark where it becomes difficult to keep a home
without air conditioning cool.

We`ve watched an area of consistent convection in southwest
Iowa all evening long. The strongest convection is expected
late tonight when the action in western Nebraska and Kansas
finds its way east. Most guidance kills the Kansas convection
as it moves into the drier environment of far southeastern
Nebraska, and certainly the more recent runs are leaning heavily
in that direction, but with the nocturnal LLJ ramping up, it`s
hard to discount that solution entirely.

Seemingly more likely is the arrival of the MCS currently in the
western half of Nebraska holding together to impact this side of
the state. The orientation of the H8 LLJ should help add a
northerly component to the storm complex`s eastward progression.
Concurring, successive iterations of CAMs have pushed that
complex increasingly farther north so now that the threat of
severe weather looks most likely to miss this forecast area to
the north from 2AM to 5AM. Still, our staffing has been beefed
up should warnings become necessary. Tornadoes would be of
little concern, but damaging winds and 1" hail would be the
primary threat for any storms clipping our far northern
counties.

.WEDNESDAY....

Who could have guessed that the forecast calls for more heat and
a chance of strong thunderstorms? Almost everyone! Wednesday`s
highs may be a degree or two lower than those notched on
Tuesday, but with dewpoints mostly unchanged, it`ll remain hot.
Heat indices will be peaking in the low triple digits in fewer
locations... highlighted by a new heat advisory for far
southwestern Iowa and the Omaha metro where the urban heat
island can have impacts on keeping cool.

Thunderstorm chances will wait again for after dark when the LLJ
will be pushing directly into the boundary draped across the
state of Nebraska. The SPC has a slight chance of severe weather
(category 1 of 5). Those storms would likely be elevated and
would have a hard time producing a tornado.

.THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

Another afternoon of 90s is forecast for Thursday and - surprise!
- another chance of thunderstorms as a shortwave works through
  the northern portions of the area after dark. The overall
  pattern begins to transition to more zonal flow as the cutoff
  low in Manitoba begins to meander east Friday is shaping up
  to be the warmest day of the work week`s second half with
  forecast heat indices flirting with advisory criteria once
  again.

Independence Day arrives on a Saturday which is conducive to
outdoor activities. The weather forecast has other plans. A cold
front is progged to push through the area in the afternoon and
bring a good chance of rain/thunder (40-70%).

There won`t be much of a cool down behind that front as temps
on Sunday will peak in the upper 80s and the 90s return already
by Monday or Tuesday.

The CPC`s 8-14 day outlook offers little relief as it suggests
the entirety of the lower 48 + Hawaii are leaning warmer than
normal for July`s first half.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Currently we have a few storms near KOMA. These have cigs around
6000 ft so conditions should stay mostly VFR unless heavier rain
leads to reduced visibility. Will likely clear by 06Z, but
could back-build hanging in the area as late as 07Z. Otherwise,
expecting any additional storms to stay well away from the
terminals overnight. VFR conditions with primary concern being
low-level wind shear at KOMA and KLNK. Winds at around 1800ft
increase to around 40 to 45kt. This should resolve as surface
winds increase and winds aloft decrease around 15Z Wednesday.
Expect breezy conditions mid- morning into the afternoon with
winds out of the south gusting to around 20-25kt. Winds will
weaken again Wednesday evening with more chances for storms
starting after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ052-053.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

736
FXUS63 KGID 302348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal to enhanced threat of severe storms this
  evening into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds
  are the main threats.

- There is a marginal to slight threat of severe storms
  Wednesday evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
  threats.

- There is a marginal to slight threat of severe storms for
  Thursday although there is some uncertainty if these storms
  will even impact the area.

- There is a 30% to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide
  Saturday evening. There is at least a low chance (20% to 30%) of
  severe storms.

- High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and 90s with a
  slight cool down Sunday and Monday (temperatures mostly in the
  80s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country and
extends over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An upper ridge
extends from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. South central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these two
features. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday,
especially across northern portions of the area with a surface high
present. Highs are expected to range from mid/upper 80s to the upper
90s. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the low/mid
60s to the mid 70s.

There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to enhanced (level 3 out of
5) risk of severe storms today into tonight. The highest risk
(enhanced) will be across portions of north central Kansas. CAPE
values will mostly range from 2,500 to 4,000+ J/kg. 0 to 6 km wind
shear values will get up to around 50 knots across mainly western
and northern portions of the area. Mid-level lapse rates will
generally range from 7 to near 8 degrees C/km. A shortwave is
expected to move over portions of the area this evening into
tonight. These conditions will contribute to the severe weather
threat this evening into tonight. The severe weather could start as
early as around 6 PM with an isolated supercell or two in north
central Kansas or in south central Nebraska west of Kearney. The
more widespread/main threat of severe weather is expected around 8
or 9 PM when a line/cluster of storms moves northeastward from
western Kansas. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms
will go when they move into the forecast area. While there is more
confidence for the storms to impact north central Kansas and
areas of south central Nebraska generally along and south of
Highway 6, some models are indicating storms moving from Furnas
County northeastward to Greeley County (similar to where storms
moved last yesterday evening/last night). Hail up to around golf
ball size and wind gusts up to around 70+ MPH will be the main
threats. The severe threat is expected to end around 2 AM
although additional (possibly strong) storms may develop after
that time.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Temperatures on Wednesday will be fairly similar to those today.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms across the majority of the
forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night with a small portion of
north central Kansas in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5). CAPE
values will be very high (over 4,000 J/kg according to the NAM12)
but 0 to 6 km wind shear will be a little weaker than today (up to
40 to 45 knots in some areas). Mid-level lapse rates will generally
be similar to those today. A shortwave trough is expected to move
over/near the area Wednesday evening and produce storms, some of
which may be strong to severe. Hail up to around the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be the main
threats. The main timing for severe storms will be around 7 PM to
midnight.

Thursday through Monday...

Similar high temperatures will continue for Thursday. There is a
marginal to slight severe storm threat for Thursday for south
central and central Nebraska. There is some uncertainty if storms
will even impact the area, but storms that do develop/move into the
area will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Some
storms may impact (up to around a 30% chance) northern portions of
the forecast area (Highway 6 and northward) Friday evening. Severe
potential is unknown at this time. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the lower to upper 90s.

It still appears that some, or most, of the forecast area could
experience showers and thunderstorms Saturday (4th of July) evening.
Right now for the evening and early overnight hours, there is a 30%
to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide. The severe potential
is unclear at this point but there is at least a low threat (20% to
30%) of severe storms. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. High temperatures Sunday and
Monday are expected to mainly be in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few thunderstorms may approach the terminals between 3-7z.
These storms, possibly severe, could bring gusty winds and a
temporary reduction in visibilities. Though not too terribly
likely, a few storms in the vicinity could carry some large
hail. The nature of these storms are more uncertain for now as
model guidance shows these storms to be in the stages of
possibly decaying by the time they reach as far north of I-80.

Other than the storm potential tonight, the main aviation
hazard will be from the presence of LLWS. Around 35-50kts of
LLWS will be possible between 3-13z. Otherwise, surface winds
will remain out of the south most of the night and day with
overnight to early Wednesday morning gusts as high as 20-30kts
possible at times. Speeds will not be expected to exceed 15kts
unless influenced by a passing thunderstorm.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion