Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

514
FXUS63 KOAX 131114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least
  early next week, with widespread highs in the 80s.

- Mostly dry conditions favored through the weekend, though
  can`t completely rule out some spotty late evening/overnight
  showers (10% chance).

- The warm, dry, and occasionally breezy conditions could lead
  to some fire weather concerns in portions northeast Nebraska
  where fuels have dried the most. Primary concerns would be
  today and Monday.

- A transition to a wetter weather pattern appears likely next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Early morning satellite imagery showed remnants of Francine
spinning over northern AR and while associated clouds were
clipping the forecast area, rainfall remained well to the
southeast. Meanwhile to the west, a larger scale upper level
trough was in control over the western CONUS with a cutoff low
spinning along the MT/Canada border. The trough axis will push
slightly eastward today with a surface front getting into north-
central NE by late this afternoon/early evening. A few showers
and storms will be possible in the vicinity of this front, with
a few perhaps sneaking into northeast NE, but moisture will
remain limited and guidance is in good agreement that the best
instability will remain to our west. As such, latest short term
guidance keeps precip largely to our west, though still about a
10-20% of rain sneaking into Knox, Antelope, and Boone counties
by 9- 10 PM or so. Also want to note that by early Saturday
morning, some guidance hints at some fog development in any
areas that clear out (most likely southeast NE), as we see an
influx of some low-level moisture. However, guidance does
suggest winds just above the surface could stay up just enough
to preclude widespread development, but it`ll be good to keep an
eye on trends there.

Otherwise, the aforementioned trough/low will push north-
northeastward into Canada through the weekend, with upper level
ridging building over us. This will help keep us warm and mostly
dry into early next week, though there are some hints that some
low level moisture transport points into/near the area
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday nights perhaps giving us some
spotty rain chances (less than 10%, but not 0). Higher chances
will likely remain to our west and east through this period.

Meanwhile another upper level trough will be digging into the
western CONUS with guidance in decent agreement that another
cutoff low spins north-northeast into Canada by late Tuesday
into Wednesday, similar to what is progged to happen tonight.
Also similar to tonight, a surface front will push east into the
area and bring our next decent chance of rain (40-60%) Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. The boundary looks to stay in/near
the forecast area through the remainder of next week while the
western CONUS trough edges farther east with bits of shortwave
energy ejecting and bringing additional precip chances. So
bottom line, it does look a little more active by the middle to
later parts of next week. Still too early to talk severe weather
chances in detail, but for what it`s worth the GEFS-based
Colorado State Machine Learning Probabilities show some low-end
severe weather chances (5%) in this timeframe. Finally, daily
high temperatures are largely favored to remain in the 80s,
timing of precip and cloud cover will almost certainly play a
role, so a cloudy day in the 70s wouldn`t be out of the question
Wednesday, Thursday, and/or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VFR conditions are likely through at least 06Z with some high
clouds (especially at OMA), and increasing winds by late morning
to 12+ kts. There is some potential for fog or low ceilings to
develop mainly after 09Z, but forecast confidence not currently
great enough to include in the TAF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

729
FXUS63 KGID 131145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low end chances for a few spotty showers and thunderstorms
  tonight. Most areas will stay dry and severe weather is not
  expected.

- Slightly above-normal temperatures continue through the
  weekend and most of next week.

- After a dry start to September, chances for rain and
  thunderstorms increase through next week and into the
  following weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Currently, the local area remains in-between the tropical
remnants to our southeast and a deep upper low to our northwest.
The daytime today will be dry and breezy (gusts 20-30 MPH).
There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms this evening.
Initially, a few storms could develop in northern/western
portions of the area on the tail end of the aforementioned
upper low. Later overnight, spotty showers/storms could continue
to develop further southeast, aided by weak convergence on a
modest LLJ). That said, the latest HREF members are mostly dry,
and most of the area will miss out entirely. Limited instability
will prevent any organized severe weather threat as well.

Dry weather is expected to continue through the weekend, with
near to above normal temperatures (highs in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s and 60s). Deterministic models show a deep upper
low moving into the west coast, which should bring us better
chances for rain/t-storms next week.

Low PoPs return as early as Monday afternoon, but global
ensembles favor the Tuesday evening/overnight timeframe as the
best chance for rain/storms as this system ejects through the
central/northern Plains. Exact timing/progression of the upper
pattern remains uncertain, therefore low PoPs continue
Wednesday/Thursday. Then, another system may bring us another
round of meaningful rain next Friday/Saturday.

As of this morning (Friday Feb 13th), Grand Island and Hastings
are 0.80-0.90" below-normal on precipitation in September.
Through next weekend, the GEFS and EPS mean QPF are 0.75-1.00"
above normal...effectively erasing this deficit.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Southeast winds will increase this morning, with gusts over
25kts at times through the mid afternoon. A few mid to high
level clouds are expected through the afternoon. A few spotty
showers/storms are possible through the evening and overnight,
but the probability for this impacting EAR/GRI is low (10-15%).

There is potential for low stratus to develop Saturday morning.
The main timeframe of concern is outside of this TAF period,
but the latest NBM shows a 30-50% chance for ceilings to drop to
at least MVFR in the 12-15Z timeframe Saturday with higher
probabilities to the east.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion