Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

998
FXUS63 KOAX 091901
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
101 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frigid temperatures persist through Monday, with morning wind
  chills in the single digits and afternoon highs in the 30s to
  low 40s.

- A gradual warm-up is expected this week, with highs climbing
  into the 50s and 60s, potentially reaching 70 by Friday and
  Saturday.

- Dry weather is expected to prevail through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

A frigid November afternoon is underway as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the Great Lakes region, bringing meridional flow
aloft locally. The resulting cold air advection has kept high
temperatures locked in the 30s, roughly 15 to 20 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Blustery northerly winds, gusting up
to 30 mph, are driving wind chills into the teens and 20s.

High pressure will build overhead this evening and tonight, easing
winds and clearing skies. The combination of calm conditions and
minimal cloud cover will allow temperatures to tumble into the
teens, with a few single-digit readings possible across northeast
NE. Morning wind chills will remain in the single digits across much
of the area, with values approaching zero in northeast NE. Another
chilly day is expected Monday, with afternoon highs only reaching
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday and Beyond...

By Tuesday, a mid-level ridge currently centered over the Desert
Southwest will begin to build into the central Plains. This pattern
shift will bring a return to zonal to northwesterly flow aloft,
allowing temperatures to moderate. Highs will rebound into the 60s
for most areas on Tuesday, with temperatures generally holding in
the mid 50s to mid 60s through the rest of the week. Some spots may
even hit 70 on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will remain
slightly above seasonable values, ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

The week overall looks quiet and dry, with limited potential for
impactful weather. While a brief shortwave could bring isolated
light precipitation at some point, most areas will stay dry. The
primary thing to watch will be fire weather concerns, though no day
currently stands out as particularly dry and windy. The next chance
for widespread precipitation appears late next weekend, as a mid- to
upper-level trough break down the ridge and pushes a cold front
through the region. However, long-range guidance continues to show
notable differences in the timing and intensity of the system. For
now, 15-25% PoPs are carried Saturday night into Sunday, with higher
chances to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A deck of MVFR ceilings continues to overspread eastern Nebraska
late this morning, impacting KOFK and KLNK. Ceilings will
continue to scatter and improve, with a return to VFR conditions
expected at all terminals by 18-20Z. Gusty north-northwesterly
winds will continue, with afternoon gusts up to 25 kts before
gradually calming under 12 kts after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

584
FXUS63 KGID 092048
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
248 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With clear skies and decreasing/calm winds, the coldest lows
  of the season (teens) are anticipated early Monday morning.

- After a modest warm-up on Monday (40s), unseasonably warm
  temperatures return Tuesday afternoon (66-72F), and the 60s
  and 70s should continue through the end of the work week.

- Dry weather is anticipated all week with the next chance (20%)
  for some light rain anticipated by Saturday night or Sunday.
  High confidence in warm and dry conditions through Friday,
  then significant uncertainty with next weekends forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Tonight...

The recent NBM runs have come up a few degrees with expected low
temperatures tonight, but are probably too warm given change in
airmass, large departure from recent weather, and near ideal
radiational cooling set up expected tonight. Therefore, blended
with previous forecast and lowered expected low temperatures
tonight below latest NBM guidance. Lows in the teens tonight and
even lower teens northwest of the Tri-Cities will be the coldest
air so far this season.


Monday...

This will be a transition day as the winds turn back around out
of the south and warmer air begin flowing into the region.
However, with such a cold start Monday morning, we are expected
to only make it into the 40s for highs in what is a tightly
clustered/higher confidence NBM forecast.


Tuesday through Friday...

An upper level ridge will develop over the western United States
and slide east into the plains as we head through the forecast
period resulting in above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. The NBM temperature spread is pretty tightly
clustered through Friday indicating good confidence in 60s to
even lower 70 degree highs. Precipitation chances through Friday
are also near zero.


Saturday into Sunday...

The next storm system will likely be a large upper trough that
could become a cut off low that will eventually eject into the
high plains as early as Saturday or Sunday. There are
significant model differences between the major long range
models and their numerous ensemble members. The middle 50% of
the model ensembles have an almost 20 degree high temperature
spread between them indicating high uncertainty. Most of the
uncertainty centers around the timing, track, and strength of
the next storm system. There will likely be a storm system
tracking across the plains, but the questions are does it track
across the central plains or the southern plains? Will it wrap
up into a strong closed low, or remain open and more
progressive? Will the timing be faster (Saturday) or slower
(Sunday). Right now given significant uncertainty the
precipitation chances are low (20%). The 12Z GFS indicating snow
for our forecast area next weekend is a significant outlier
with only 1 out of 30 12Z GEFS ensemble members showing a
similar solution. The 00Z ECMWF ensembles were also universally
warmer and indicating rain if anything next weekend. However,
the latest 12Z ECMWF ensembles now have around 10 percent of the
ensemble members indicating the possibility for snow in our
area next weekend. So we may have to keep an eye on next
weekend`s temperature and precipitation forecast, but right now
only a few outliers give us much to worry about.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Skies have cleared out and should remain clear or at least
mostly clear throughout the remainder of the TAF valid period.
Can not completely rule out a few high transient clouds. Breezy
north northwest winds this afternoon will quickly die down
around sunset and will become light and variable prior to dawn
on Monday. When the wind starts back up later Monday morning it
will be out of the south southwest. This is a very high
confidence (>80%) VFR TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion