Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

873
FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions continue today and Sunday with highs in the
  50s and 60s. Fog may develop over western Iowa and far eastern
  Nebraska Sunday morning.

- Rain returns late Sunday night into Monday (60-80% chance).
  Cooler with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Continue to monitor forecast from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend as potential exists for snowfall, although specific
  details and confidence remain low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

20z RAP objective analysis shows the sfc high now over Missouri into
Kansas. A sfc low is seen over western Ontario, while the cold front
extends south southwestward toward the forecast area. Latest METARs
show the front draped from the Siouxland area to Columbus to near
Kearney, Nebraska. Temperatures remained in the upper 50s to low 60s
this afternoon, with breezy northwesterly winds behind the front.
Weak lift and limited moisture along and just behind the main front
has resulted in some mid to high level cloudiness. Looking aloft at
the H5 pattern, a prominent shortwave trof axis associated with the
aforementioned disturbance extends south from western Ontario into
Minnesota. Two prominent closed lows are also seen: one entering the
southwest US and the other over far eastern Canada.

Despite the front moving through, dry conditions are expected with
most areas seeing clouds and sun today. The breezy winds will
eventually subside late this afternoon and evening. Highs are
forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will cool to the
upper 20s to low 30s.

Sfc high pressure currently over the west will pivot and move into
the Northern Plains late tonight into Sunday. By early Sunday
morning, the ridge axis will be overtop, and with clear skies and
light winds resulting in good radiational cooling, patchy fog may
develop once again across western Iowa into far eastern Nebraska.
Recent HREF and CAM guidance continues to key in on this area for
development, so have kept mentions of patchy fog in these areas from
07z to 15z.

Fog will burn off Sunday morning, and the quiet conditions will
continue for most of the daytime as we`ll still be influenced by the
sfc high. So, expect mostly sunny skies for most of the daytime.
Highs reach the upper 50s to low 60s with light south southwesterly
winds.

By late Sunday afternoon, clouds will be on the increase as the
557dam closed low in the southwest US ejects northeast. H7-H5 Q-
vector convergence and implied lift will overspread much of the
Central and Northern Plains Sunday evening. Increasing low level
moisture transport should result in rain developing with 20 to 45%
PoPs gradually increasing from west to east. Lows Sunday night will
be in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rain will be ongoing Monday as the H5 cutoff low moves east across
the Central Plains. PoPs increase to 60 to 80% Monday morning over
much of the forecast period, eventually tapering off and exiting to
the east by Monday evening. Storm total QPF will be light as most
locations will see a few hundredths to around 0.15 inches. Highs
Monday reach the low to mid 50s.

After the cutoff low passes, an H5 shortwave will eject from the
Pacific Northwest to the southeast, arriving at our doorstep on
Tuesday. The shortwave will induce a sfc low which will track east
across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Model guidance
suggests the sfc low will deepen across Minnesota into Wisconsin,
tightening the sfc pressure gradient over much of the Northern
Plains. Aloft, a 40-50 kt jet behind the H8 closed low coupled with
strong cold air advection should help promote strong subsidence and
lead to gusty 30 to 35 mph northwest winds. Model guidance is also
suggesting the shortwave will have enough moisture to work with
resulting in a band of precipitation forming primarily over the
Dakotas in the early morning, but this may clip far northeast
Nebraska (15-20% PoPs). Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest that snow
would be the most likely precip type, but chances remain low for
snow to occur (~15% chance) at this time. For what it`s worth, most
ensemble guidance keeps the forecast area dry. High temperatures
Tuesday are forecast for the mid to upper 40s.

The H5 shortwave will intensify into a closed low, elongating the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS for Wednesday. Behind the trof,
deterministic guidance suggests an area of sfc high pressure
overspreading much of the Central and Northern Plains, lingering
through Thanksgiving and Friday. Highs Wednesday through Friday
largely range in the mid 30s to low 40s. Northwesterly flow at H5
should allow for at least some shortwave energy to eject southeast,
and while the current forecast package has dry conditions persisting
from Wednesday to Friday, a minimal amount of LREF members suggest a
band of precip somewhere across portions of the Northern Plains
during this period. By the weekend, a longwave trof is progged
to amplify over the western CONUS, but lots of spread in
location/solution placement is seen. Obviously, considerable
uncertainty exists regarding precip type, amounts, feature
locations, etc., so expect further refinements and adjustments
with subsequent forecast packages. Those with travel plans
should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
information and updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

KOFK/KLNK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at
the terminals. Northwest winds become westerly after midnight,
before becoming southerly around mid-morning. A few high clouds
will move into the region around 15Z, increasing in coverage
from the west in the afternoon.

KOMA: VFR conditions prevail for most of the forecast period at
KOMA. Northerly winds become calm around 09Z. There will be a
chance for fog development overnight with some potential
visibility and ceiling impacts to the terminal between 09 and
15Z. Winds become southerly around 15Z with things clearing up
heading into the late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

465
FXUS63 KGID 222324
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible around sunrise Sunday morning in low lying
  areas especially in river valleys.

- Outstanding late November weather to end the weekend, highs in
  the upper 50s to around 60 on Sunday with light south winds.

- Light rain likely (50-80%) Sunday night into Monday, but
  amounts will be minor (Generally 0.10" or less).

- Cooler weather (highs 40s and possibly 30s) arrives Tuesday
  and continues into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
  Increasing potential for a wintry storm system on the plains
  by Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight into Sunday...

High pressure, clear skies, and light winds may result in some
valley fog, primarily within a few hours either side of sunrise
Sunday morning. At this point any fog appears that it would be
patchy, shallow, and not very long lasting, maybe 1-3 hours.
Most areas can expect a quiet and clear night.

The wind will become southerly on Sunday bringing in some higher
dewpoints and we`ll have a closed low lifting northeast out of
the desert southwest. This will result in increasing clouds
Sunday afternoon and evening, but with rain chances holding off
until after sunset. As mentioned in the key messages section
above, this is a high probability for precipitation (>50%) but
also likely that it will only be light amounts (less than
0.10"). The most likely time frame for any rainfall will be
Sunday night between 11 PM and 7 AM.


Monday...

Rainfall chances will begin to decrease from west to east and
most areas should be dry by afternoon. Again this is a light
rainfall event with the NBM probability of receiving 0.10" or
more of precipitation over 24 hrs only (30-60%). That probability
shrinks to 10-30% for reaching 0.25" of rain Sunday night into
Monday. Highs should still be in the 50s with good forecast
confidence and a low model spread. However, clouds and a few
showers will mean that it will feel less pleasant than Sunday.


Tuesday through Friday...

We`ll see our first push of cooler air into the region on
Tuesday behind the departing Monday system. Then an even
stronger punch of cold air is expected Tuesday evening behind a
quick moving clipper that will track across the Dakotas giving
North Dakota some snow, but just colder for our area.

After that 2nd clipper Tuesday evening our pattern grows quiet
for at least Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day with northwesterly
flow and mainly dry conditions. Good travel conditions are
likely Wednesday and Thursday all across the plains states. We
do have an outlying 10% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles indicating
some light snow over portions of Nebraska on Thanksgiving, but
our forecast will follow the 90% that give us a dry Thanksgiving
Day.

By Friday after Thanksgiving we start to see an upper trough
develop across the western United States that will be our next
storm system. There could be some warm air advection snow ahead
of this system (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion