Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

151
FXUS63 KOAX 051651
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1051 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer weather will persist into next week. A few spots could
  hit the 60s today, with more widespread 60s Sunday-Monday.

- The prolonged stretch of warmer weather will likely lead to
  river ice breakup and increase the potential for ice jams. A
  Flood Watch is in effect for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup
  rivers.

- More precipitation chances are favored for the central part of
  the country by the middle of next week, but still lots of
  questions on timing, strength, and exact tracks of the
  various systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Pretty quiet across the area early this morning with a warm
front running from roughly O`Neill through Kearney as of 3 AM
and upper level ridging over the western CONUS starting to edge
eastward. The front and cloud cover will continue eastward this
morning, mostly clearing the forecast area by around noon with
westerly to northwesterly downslope flow (gusts of 20-30 mph)
helping us warm significantly compared to where we were. Expect
afternoon highs in the 50s for most of the area with a few spots
nearing 60 as you go west. A surface cold front will slide
through on Friday morning and cool us down a bit, but still
expect highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Also expect some gusty
winds (20-30+ mph) as it passes through with model soundings
indicating 30 kts at the top of the mixed layer in many
locations. In addition, some model soundings suggest we could
see some spotty sprinkles, with a decently deep saturated layer
and weak instability. Corresponding simulated reflectivity
fields also show some weak returns, but little to no QPF, so
again, wouldn`t expect much more than sprinkles if anything at
all (10% chance).

For the weekend, strong southerly flow will return on Saturday
ahead of developing surface low pressure to our northwest. As a
result, we should see decent mixing with gusts of 20-30+ mph
again, though given the warm air advection, think we`ll see at
least a little cloudiness which will keep things from really
mixing out and getting warm and windy. Still, expect highs in
the 40s to lower 50s. Sunday will be warmer and less windy as
the surface low passes to our east and westerly flow helps usher
in 50s to lower 60s again. Stronger southwest flow and the
upper level ridge axis arrive on Monday, helping us to warm even
further, with widespread highs in the 60s and model consensus
giving some locations a 30-50% chance of hitting 70 degrees. So
with all this warm weather, we`re expecting river ice to break
up and move within the next few days and increase the risk of
ice jams. Therefore, we have issued a Flood Watch for the
Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup rivers through Monday evening.

The ridge then starts to flatten out with upper level troughing
setting up over the western CONUS, so we`ll be a bit cooler for
the rest of the week (40s and 50s). With the trough to our
west, we also look like we`ll be in a little bit more of an
active pattern, with various shortwaves rippling through. Still
lots of spread in strength, timing, and track of these various
systems which will obviously impact precip amounts and types.
For now, precip chances start to ramp up by Tuesday evening with
a standing 20-40% chance through the end of the week. While
you`ll probably see some model snowfall maps painting huge snow
totals across our area next week, know that many more models
keep us completely snow-free through Friday (about 50-75% of
GEFS/EPS/GEPS members to be exact). So bottom line, we`ll likely
see some precip at times next week, but still lots of details
to be worked out, so keep an eye on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the bulk of the
period. Mid-level cloud cover will decrease through the
afternoon with northwesterly winds gusts of 20-25 kts expected
before gradually calming under 12 kts after 05/22Z to 06/00Z.
Low-level wind shear is expected to develop at all terminals by
06/05-07Z as winds increase to 45-50 kts around FL015. A deck of
MVFR ceilings will also push into from north-to-south Friday
morning, with impacts most likely at KOFK and KOMA. Patchy
drizzle and/or sprinkles will be possible with these lower
clouds (15% chance). LLWS will gradually diminish by late
morning, with north-northwesterly winds again increasing above
12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033-
     042>045-050>053-067.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

586
FXUS63 KGID 051745
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1145 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures today with highs in the 60s to
  near 70 degrees.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible west of Highway
  183 this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the end of the
  forecast period with highs generally in the upper 40s to 60s,
  warmest on Monday with temperatures approaching the 70s.

- Next chance for precipitation (15-35%) arrives mid-week next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Temperatures are currently in the mid 20s to low 30s under partly
cloudy skies. Aloft a ridge sits over the Rockies with troughing
over the eastern half of the U.S. A warm front will continue to lift
across the forecast area this morning, exiting the area shortly
after sunrise. Winds steadily increase this morning after sunrise
resulting in a breezy day across the area with northwest winds
gusting 25-30mph. Highs today are expected to soar into the 60s
aided by westerly downsloping winds and sunny skies. Southwestern
portions of the forecast area could even reach the 70s if
temperatures were to overperform the current forecast, though have
opted to go with the higher end of model guidance for temperatures
today. The warm weather and breezy winds could also bring a period
of near-critical fire weather conditions west of Highway 183 this
afternoon. Record High temperatures are possible today at Grand
Island (record 65 in 1909) and Hastings (66 in 2009). Lows tonight
will be in the 30s.

Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track. A disturbance dives
into the Midwest on Friday, pushing a cold front into northeastern
portions of the area. Highs on Friday will range from the 40s
(northeast) to the mid-upper 50s (southwest). Temperatures climb
back into the 50s and 60s area wide this weekend as ridging builds
over the area. The warmest day continues to be on Monday, with highs
in the mid 60s to low 70s! Southwesterly flow sets up mid-week next
week and brings multiple low probability chances for
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026


Short Term...(Today/Thursday)

A cluster of low-lying clouds currently loom over the eastern half
of the area this afternoon, keeping highs from stretching completely
out of the 30/40s among a vast majority of the area. The last of the
remaining isolated patches of drizzle should be in our rear view
mirror now as we look towards a more pleasant day on Thursday.

Temperatures will be set to rocket up into the upper 50s to mid 60s
or around 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year. There is
even a slight chance (20-30%) for a few southwestern Nebraska and
Northwestern Kansas areas reaching the low 70s even. Some
contributors to this warmth will be from clear skies as well as from
subsiding air (adiabatic warming) as a ridging pattern overtakes the
mid-to-upper levels of the troposphere. This feature will not only
boot out the colder air aloft, but it will also place a sort of
pause on any notable precipitation chances through at least the
weekend.

Beyond the temperatures, northwest winds blowing between 10-20MPH
may occasionally gust as high as 25-30MPH across parts of the
afternoon Thursday. Given the broad warmup with the gusty afternoon
winds, near-critical fire weather conditions may be possible for
slightly drier areas west of HWY-183 where relative humidity values
may drop as low as 25-30%.


Long Term...(Friday Through Next Wednesday)

The warmth should continue on unto the rest of the weekend and all
the way through Tuesday as highs return each day back to the 50s and
60s. The warmest day of the period looks to come Monday as highs
stretch the 60s to low 70s. At the surface, winds will have a
northerly component Friday (gusts up to 15-20 MPH) followed by
southerly component for Saturday (gusts up to 20-25 MPH). Winds
beyond Saturday and through Tuesday will have more of a westerly
component with speeds generally on the more steady side (speeds
mainly between 5-10 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH). Given these
lighter winds, near-critical fire weather concerns remain off the
table for now. Any bump up in winds could introduce near-crtical
fire weather conditions to a limited portion of the area.

Aloft, the upper-level northwest flow, established from the onset of
the ridge, looks to eventually flatten out to a more of a zonal
(west to east) orientation by Monday. This pattern should reload the
jet stream for a chance to snap out a weak shortwave trough into a
potential mid week disturbance. As of now, the latest GFS & ECMWF
deterministic guidance shows minimal precipitation coverage through
Wednesday, although the ensemble clusters suggest a more nosier
signal (~15-30% chance of rain at any given time Tuesday and
Wednesday). Given the seasonable warm temperatures, any
precipitation that does materialize will be favored to mainly come
as rain rather than snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Only a few high-level cirrus will float overtop of the terminals
today and tonight, leaving VFR condition in place. Some lower-
level stratus may close into KGRI after 15z Friday. There is
only a 30% chance that these low-level cloud would break into
brief MVFR conditions.

The main aviation impact across the period will be from the
presence of LLWS between 6-15z as a strong northerly jet will
activate above the surface overnight tonight. Winds today out of
the northwest will blow near 15kts with gusts as high as 25kts.
Winds quieting overnight out of the west will pick back up early
Friday blowing between 10-15kts and gusting as high as 20-25kts
across the morning and afternoon hours.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion