Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

799
FXUS63 KOAX 241138
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
538 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will gradually overspread the area this morning, with
  most accumulation ending by early afternoon, but some
  lingering spotty light showers/sprinkles into this evening.
  Totals will be under 0.25" for most.

- Windy conditions expected Tuesday with gusts of 35 to 50 mph,
  highest in northeast Nebraska. This may lead to fire weather
  concerns depending how much rain falls today.

- Continue to monitor the forecast from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend as potential exists for snowfall and travel impacts.
  However, confidence in specific details remains low at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Early morning analysis showed a cutoff low spinning along the
CO/KS border with associated rain arcing from south-central CO
into central and southeastern NE and south/southwest all the way
to TX. There wasn`t much coverage across the forecast area as
of 3 AM, but that should change shortly when stronger isentropic
ascent starts to push in as the low starts to edge farther
east. Latest CAMs are in reasonable agreement that we`ll see an
area of showery precip overspread the area through the morning
with chances for most of the area in the 60-80% range. Guidance
also hints that there could be a tiny bit of elevated
instability in place which could lead to a rumble of thunder or
2, but chances are pretty slim (10% or less at a given
location). That initial area of precip should largely exit to
our east by noon, though guidance is in decent agreement that
we`ll have some lingering spotty, light showers or sprinkles
into the afternoon/early evening as the shortwave trough axis
passes through and the low moves by to our south. When it`s all
said and done, rain totals will mostly be under 0.25", though a
few spots (mainly northeast NE) could see amounts approach
0.50". Otherwise, expect highs in the lower to mid 50s today
with at least some patchy fog developing again overnight into
early Tuesday.

For the daytime hours on Tuesday, the primary concern will be
strong northwest winds. A shortwave trough will push through the
Dakotas with a surface low just ahead of it that will drag a
cold front through the area early in the day. Behind the front,
many model soundings show 40-50+ mph winds at the top of the
mixed layer, while ensemble guidance shows mean surface wind
gusts of similar values and HREF shows a 60-90% chance of seeing
Wind Advisory level winds in northeast NE. In addition,
subsidence behind the front should further help to bring those
stronger winds to the surface, with a few ensemble members
suggesting we could even make a run toward High Wind Warning
criteria (58 mph gusts). There was some discussion of issuing a
High Wind Watch, but decided against it in our forecast area, as
confidence is fairly low that we see more than just a few
sporadic gusts of that level. We`ll also need to keep an eye on
potential for some snow to clip far northeast NE as the surface
low deepens over MN and some moisture wraps around the back
side. For now, have a 15% chance in Knox/Cedar counties. If we
do happen to get any decent snow showers, the snow combined with
these winds could lead to some travel impacts.

Surface high pressure builds in behind the front and should
keep things quiet Wednesday and Thursday. However, we`ll be much
cooler, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. For Friday,
guidance is starting to come into better agreement regarding
potential for a band of snow to set up somewhere across the
Dakotas and southeastward into some combination of NE/IA/MN.
Model consensus gives a 30-50% chance of at least 1" of snow in
northeast NE into west-central IA through midnight Friday night.
However, still a lot of finer scale details to be worked out
like timing, temperatures, and exact location. Bottom line, it`s
looking more likely that somewhere in the region could see some
minor travel impacts on Friday.

Unfortunately, from Saturday onward, there remains a lot of
spread in guidance regarding additional rain/snow chances. Some
shortwave energy does look to move through behind the
frontogenesis band sometime Saturday and lead to a little more
widespread precipitation development. However, confidence is
very low on precipitation type and where it develops, with many
solutions keeping it mostly to our east and some developing it
right over our area. There`s even more model spread heading into
Sunday as a longwave trough digs into the western CONUS with
some solutions suggesting some shortwave energy on the eastern
periphery interacts with a boundary still in the area and leads
to even more precipitation, including some snow. Meanwhile,
other solutions suggest the boundary is well out of the area and
incoming shortwave energy is weak, with only spotty additional
precip at best. So bottom line, forecast confidence regarding
precipitation for the weekend into early next week is quite low.
Most ensemble members give at least somewhere in the area
enough snow for some travel impacts, but details on timing,
location, and degree of impacts are very fuzzy at this point. If
you have travel plans, continue to closely monitor the
forecast. What we are more confident in is even cooler air
arrives by Sunday into early next week, with highs in the mid
20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms will continue to
overspread the area this morning, with MVFR to IFR ceilings also
pushing in. There could also be some patchy fog with mostly MVFR
visibility, though some heavier showers could also produce some
brief IFR reductions. Most precip should come to an end this
morning, though a few spotty lighter showers could linger into
the afternoon/evening. Expect improvement to VFR at LNK and OFK
toward the very end of the period, though IFR ceilings are
expected to persist at OMA, with potential for some fog
development overnight. Otherwise, expect southerly winds around
5-8 kts through the day before they become more southwesterly to
westerly this evening and overnight. Winds are expected to
significantly strengthen and become northwesterly early in the
next period (around or just after 12Z), with gusts of 25-35+
kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

130
FXUS63 KGID 241124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog and rain showers this morning...clearing this
  afternoon and evening.

- Very windy on Tuesday. Northwesterly gusts 40-50 MPH are
  expected for most, and areas near/north of Highway 92 could
  see gusts around 55 MPH.

- Accumulating snow is possible Friday-Sunday, but confidence
  is low in specific details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Some patchy fog remains possible this morning...the most
extensive is currently southwest of the area, but could expand
northeastward around sunrise. Otherwise, no significant changes
for today. Light rain showers persist over parts of the area
this morning, gradually diminishing in the afternoon.

Northwest winds for Tuesday have increased behind the cold
frontal passage. Widespread gusts in the 40-50 MPH range are
expected...both directly following the frontal passage early
Tuesday morning and again later in the afternoon as mixing
increases. Northern areas (Highway 92 northward) could
occasionally see gusts near 55 MPH, but ensembles still favor
winds remaining below high-wind warning criteria.

Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected for
Wednesday/Thursday, but dry conditions are still favored.

Details for the rest of the Holiday Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
remain uncertain. Multiple rounds of mixed precipitation are
possible. Lift ahead of an upper shortwave result in light snow
for parts of the area on Friday, with additional snow (mixed
with rain for some) possible on Saturday/Sunday. Overall,
ensembles have widely varied solutions, leading to reduced
forecast confidence. Accumulating snow is certainly possible,
but a significant snow event remains unlikely at this point. The
probability for 2"+ of snowfall is around 30% for most of the
area (per 01Z NBM).

Colder air behind this system is favored to keep high
temperatures in the 20s for Sunday/Monday, and wind chills may
dip below zero for parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tonight through Monday...

Mid to high clouds are just beginning to filter into our
forecast area this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level
storm system from the southwest. Clouds will continue to
increase and lower through the evening hours as the upper low
kicks out into the plains. Forecast models are in good agreement
that this system will bring a swath of light rain to much of our
forecast area overnight primarily after 6 PM over north central
Kansas and closer to midnight or later over most of south
central Nebraska. The peak time frame for the Tri-Cities to
possibly get a little light rain will be between midnight and 9
AM. Model ensembles give our forecast area a 40-70% chance for
0.10" but only a 5-20% chance for 0.25". Expect most areas will
see a trace to 0.10" with just a few higher end rainfall amounts
around 0.25".

Although light rain could still be around later Monday morning
into Monday afternoon, the chances will be decreasing, showers
should be more isolated, and any amounts would be light.
Temperatures will still be mild in the 50s on Monday despite
the thick low clouds. We do not expect to see 50 degree weather
again through the rest of the 7 day forecast period after
Monday.


Tuesday and Wednesday...

Another fast moving storm system, this time a clipper out of the
northwest will bring snow to the Dakotas as it tracks to our
north into Minnesota. For our area this system will just bring
gusty northwest winds (35-45 mph gusts) with the strongest gusts
northwest of the Tri-Citites, and colder air (Highs 40s, lows
teens to lower 20s).


Thanksgiving Day...

Most model ensemble are dry through Thanksgiving day, with just
a few (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion