Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

306
FXUS63 KOAX 210201
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
901 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be the main
  concern overnight. One to two inch rainfall totals expected
  with isolated totals three to five inches mainly south.

- Pleasantly mild temperatures for the first full week of
  summer. High temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in
  the 50s are expected. Periodic chances for showers and storms.

- May see temperatures warming back up next weekend as well as
  increased humidity.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Showers have overspread our area across eastern Nebraska and
most of southwest Iowa this evening. The instability axis has
set up farther southwest than anticipated, driving stronger
storms generally south of our area out of central Nebraska at
least so far this evening. We still have the nose of the low-
level jet forecast to shift eastward into our area closer to
midnight tonight. If this occurs, this should lead to
additional destabilization in the elevated mixed layer,
potentially ramping up more thunderstorm activity across our
southern counties. The one element that could hamper this is
that storms over northwestern Kansas right now are disrupting
the 850-mb jet. If this continues, we would see less of an
impact from the LLJ, which would limit any additional
convective growth.

A second wave of showers and storms move in from the west
overnight, currently active over the Nebraska Panhandle. This
will be weakening as it moves into a more stable air mass, but
could bring additional rainfall to areas that will have seen a
decent amount of rain already. So far our heaviest rainfall
amounts have occurred along the convective line through Saline,
Jefferson, Gage, and Pawnee Counties. A swath of Jefferson
County saw 3.5 to 3.85 inches of rain with the storm that moved
through earlier, so we`ll be watching this area for any
additional heavy rainfall overnight. With this second round,
heaviest rainfall amounts will occur along the southern part of
that line closer to the nose of the LLJ. This again will greatly
depend on the amount of influence we can get from the LLJ coming
up out of Kansas. The potential development toward midnight
tonight and the second wave closer to 3-5 AM both still bring
chances for heavy rain and flash flooding across southeastern
portions of our area, so leaving the Flood Watch in place for
now.

Rain clears out of our area around 7-8 AM on Sunday with clouds
lingering through the day on Sunday. This should keep
temperatures cool with high sin northeast Nebraska only in the
upper 60s, and low-to-mid 70s across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Looking back at the broader picture, we have fairly zonal flow
across the Central Plains Sunday into Monday with ridging
building out west toward midweek. This will lead to a transition
to northwesterly flow starting Tuesday with the arrival of a
weak trough. This could bring some showers and storms Tuesday
morning into the afternoon but weak forcing and dynamic forcing
should keep any of this from being too much of a concern.

Weak shortwaves in the northwesterly flow will bring additional
periodic chances for rain through the end of the week. Highs
mostly stay in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s. Could see
a warming trend going into next weekend as deterministic
guidance start to push the ridge eastward into our area as a
trough moves out of the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW. This
would lead to enhanced southerly flow advecting hotter, more
humid air back into the region over next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Showers have spread across the region this evening with MVFR
cigs approaching from the west. Expect cigs to move in around
1500ft from the west with the line of storms currently from
Oneill to just northwest of Beatrice. Cigs will continue to sink
overnight with IFR cigs likely at KOFK and KLNK (80% chance),
and possible at KOMA (40% chance). Have done our best with
timing of storms in the TAFs at the terminals through the
evening and overnight, but there will be potential for a few
in- cloud lightning strikes throughout the rain shield east of
the main axis of thunderstorms. Rain should be exiting the area
around 12-13Z though guidance has low clouds hanging around into
the afternoon. Winds remain predominantly out of the east or
southeast through the TAF period though there could be some
occasional storm-generated gusts that come out of the west or
northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ030-042-043-050-051-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

469
FXUS63 KGID 202345
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- BY FAR the main shorter term issue is the widespread coverage
  of rain/thunderstorms (some severe) across nearly our entire
  forecast area (CWA) through this evening-overnight, with
  flooding/possibly flash flooding also a concern.

- The vast majority of our CWA is under Slight or Enhanced Risk
  of severe storms from SPC (Level 2/3 out of 5) through
  tonight, and a Flood Watch is in effect into Sunday morning
  for our entire CWA through 7 AM Sunday to account for
  ongoing/potential future flooding concerns (see separate
  HYDROLOGY section below for more info).

- While MOST of Sunday daytime should be dry/storm-free in the
  wake of widespread overnight convection, especially the 4-11
 PM time frame could feature another round of at least
  spotty/isolated severe storm potential as another upper wave
  drops in from the north-northwest and interacts with a
  destabilizing/recovering airmass. While not expected to be as
  significant/widespread as the severe/heavy rain threat for
  this evening-overnight, SPC has nonetheless assigned either a
  Marginal/Slight Risk of severe (level 1 or 2) to our entire
  CWA

- Monday daytime looks mainly dry, but as early as Monday
  evening a parade of various/intermittent thunderstorm chances
  re-enter the picture through the upcoming week. While some
  severe risk could exist, none are truly "evident" at this time
  frame.

- Temperature-wise: a slightly coooler-than-normal regime will
  prevail through much of the next week, with daytime highs
  mainly in the mid 70s-low 80s, and overnight lows mainly in
  the 50s. There are signs of a warm-up by next weekend, and
  very preliminarily we have highs climbing back up mid 80s to
  around 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

-- QUICK UP FRONT "ADMIN NOTE":
Given earlier and upcoming severe storm/hydro concerns, the
remainder of this discussion will be HEAVILY weighted on just
these next 24-30 hours or so.


-- SHORTER TERM FOCUS SOLELY ON THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS (through
 Sunday evening):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM:
As was strongly suggested by higher-res models runs from 24
hours ago (even though some later runs incorrectly "backed off"
somewhat), much of the daytime hours featured a slow-moving
complex of elevated strong to marginally-severe storms, that
initiated in a north-northwest to south-southeast axis across
our western CWA earlier this morning, then gradually/slowly
expanded east as the day went on, while mostly ending except for
limited redevelopment along its western flank. This was a
classic recipe for marginally-severe hail (up to quarter size),
but more so localized heavy rain...with a roughly 20-30 mile
stripe across the heart of our Nebraska CWA realizing a solid
1.50-3.50".

As of this writing, only weak storms are ongoing within some of
our far northern/eastern counties, while slightly west of our
CWA, robust and more surface-based severe storms have erupted
over southwest NE/northwest KS, in a potent environment
characterized by at least 1500-2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and
around 50KT of effective shear. Meanwhile, our "silver lining"
to having so much daytime convection is that most of our CWA is
either relatively stable in the lower levels (or at least still
plenty capped), with the vast majority of available CAPE of the
elevated variety...largely muting any kind of shorter term
threat for damaging winds/tornadoes...but keeping the same
marginally-severe hail and heavy rain concerns in play.

Due to convection, quite a range in daytime high temps today,
from only 60s north...to low-mid 80s south.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Leaning heavily on higher-res models (particularly HRRR/RAP),
while there is little doubt that widespread rain/thunderstorms
will overtake our entire CWA with many areas seeing 2+ rounds of
storms or storm complexes (due to an upper disturbance impinging
upon at least modest instability, increasing low level jet later
tonight, etc.), there are still question marks about just HOW
SEVERE our storms might be. In short, expect the MAJORITY of
severe storm potential (especially damaging winds/possible QLCS
tornadoes) to target counties along/especially south of the KS
border...where the airmass is least contaminated by earlier-day
convection. Especially between 7 PM-Midnight, a storm
complex/possible mesoscale convective system (MCS) is most
favored to track east-southeastward across our southern CWA,
while more elevated activity develops across our north. Post-
midnight, another complex of storms (probably at least slightly
elevated?) could track southeastward through much of our
CWA...evolving from separate severe storm development that will
occur over northwest NE and the Panhandle.

Finally, between 5-7 AM Sunday, the back end of any widespread
storms are expected to clear out of our far southern/southeast
counties.


- MOST OF SUNDAY DAYTIME (through around 4 PM):
In the wake of widespread overnight convection, MOST of the day
is likely dry/thunderstorm free with an airmass slow to
"recover". Surface winds will also turn northerly in response to
the main surface low tracking to our south mainly across central
KS. Afternoon high temps aimed from low-mid 70s north to low 80s
south and far southwest.


- LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (after 4/5 PM):
Despite a less concerning setup than this evening-overnight, at
least isolated to perhaps scattered storm development is likely
as an upper disturbance dropping south into northern NE
interacts with a (by-now) more destabilized airmass featuring at
least 1000-2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 40-50KT of deep layer
shear. While coverage will likely be fairly limited, a few
severe storms with mainly a hail/wind threat appear
probable...likely most favoring our northern/western counties
(versus our eastern/southern counties). However, this Sunday
threat will be better analyzed once we get through tonight`s
round of more widepsread convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and thunderstorms can be found over south central
Nebraska, promoting MVFR to IFR ceilings at both terminals to
begin the 00Z TAF period. A slightly more robust line of
thunderstorms approaching KGID within the next hour or two is
expected to bring gusty winds, small hail, and potentially some
IFR visibility through the early evening, while briefly skimming
by the vicinity of KEAR. Behind this line of storms, scattered
showers will continue through the mid to late evening. Another
round of thunderstorms is expected to develop after midnight and
linger through early Sunday morning. Should these thunderstorms
impact either terminal, periods of hail, strong winds, and IFR
ceilings and visibility can be anticipated. Thunderstorms
activity is expected to diminish by mid Sunday morning, though
widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly some morning fog
will linger through the early afternoon before lifting. Chances
for more isolated showers and thunderstorms then return Sunday
afternoon through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Quick summary of last 12 hours:
Although MOST of our forecast area (CWA) has received well
under 0.50" of rain so far today, a concentrated 20-30 mile wide
stripe of much higher amounts mainly 1.50-3.50" drenched parts
of our Nebraska CWA mainly along a diagonal (northwest-southeast
oriented )stripe centered from Pleasanton-Wood-River-Clay
Center-Bruning (and including Hastings). Within this stripe,
there was a fair amount of mainly shorter-term flooding of
fields, some rural roads and small creeks.

- Looking ahead next 12-14 hours:
Fortunately, the vast majority of the aforementioned stripe of
heavy rain has been dry now for at least 2-4 hours, but with the
potential for much of the CWA to see a widespread 1-3" yet this
evening-overnight (ON TOP OF what has already fallen in some
places), at least small portions of the CWA could end up with
4-6" 24-hour totals by sunrise Sunday. Due to the potential for
at least localized/short-term flooding to occur almost ANYWHERE
in our CWA through tonight, the Flood Watch that was initially
issued yesterday has since been expanded to include our entire
CWA...officially valid through 7 AM Sunday, by which time any
overnight rain should have all-but-departed our CWA...with any
ongoing flooding by then covered by potential Flood
Advisories/Warnings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- New June 20th Record Rainfall For Hastings (HSI):
With plenty of the calendar day yet to go (through Midnight
CST), Hastings Municipal Airport (HSI) has ALREADY BROKEN its
somewhat "weak" June 20th rainfall record with 1.58" (previous
record was 1.46" in 1967).

As for Grand Island Airport, the ASOS there has officially
measured 1.03" so far today...still shy of the June 20th record
of 1.92" set in 2010. However, this could also easily be broken
by the end of the calendar day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...NWS BISMARCK
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion