Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

894
FXUS63 KOAX 201041
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
541 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be warm again on Friday, and even warmer on
  Saturday. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 90s across
  much of the area, and the current forecast is near or
  exceeding record temperatures at several locations.

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today through
  Sunday. The strongest combination of very dry air and gusty
  winds is likely to occur Saturday afternoon into early
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Through Friday Night...

Thursday was quite the beautiful spring day with warm temperatures
and relatively light winds. Temperatures overperformed a lot of
guidance, and see reason for that trend to continue in the next
couple of days, even as remarkably warm as some of that guidance is.
There`s been some warm advection aloft over the past 12 hours, and
now water vapor imagery is showing a weak short wave trough about to
pass to our north, flattening the ridge slightly later today. This
will turn winds out of the north, but the front is not a true cold
front as much as it is a wind shift as the orientation of the post-
frontal advection quickly brings warmer air aloft than even
yesterday. So expect plenty of warming through the day and mixing
into the EML by late in the day. This will bring high temps into the
lower to mid 80s and RH into the teens in many of our Nebraska
counties. The good news is that winds should behave today, but
especially areas west of a Fairbury to Lincoln to Tekamah line could
have gusts up to 20 mph, and perhaps an occasional gust higher than
that late in the afternoon. This will result in very high fire
danger, but doesn`t appear likely to be enough wind to warrant a Red
Flag at this time.

Saturday Fire Weather and Heat...

Early on Saturday, 850 hPa temperatures will be VERY warm for this
time of year at +16 to +20C with continued warm advection from the
southwest over the course of the day. This warm airmass is also very
dry throughout the depth of the troposphere so little to no cloud
cover is expected, even in the mid/upper trop. Model guidance is
very consistent that daytime heating will be extremely efficient,
fully mixing out the morning boundary layer and realizing dry
adiabatic lapse rates down to the surface from the warm layer above.
It may take a while to do this, and during that warming phase do not
expect wind gusts greater than 15-20 mph or so. However, as we get
past 2 PM and closer to 4 PM, it becomes increasingly likely that
we`ll mix out the boundary layer into the very dry steep lapse rates
above. Wind fields are also stronger in this elevated mixed layer,
so increased sustained winds with increased westerly gusts will also
begin at that time. It is difficult to assess just how strong the
winds will be. At this time have increased sustained and gust speeds
into the upper quartile of model guidance, but there is some
potential for infrequent stronger gusts of perhaps 30 kts at times
as mean winds in the well-mixed 5-10k foot AGL layer are around 34
kts. The very warm temperatures and very dry airmass will lead to
relative humidity values at least down into the low teens. It`s
worth noting that this scenario fits the conceptual model for
reality to be near the minimum model guidance for RH, near the
maximum for temperatures, and close to the upper end for winds. HRRR
and RAP are the very low end of guidance for RH, as they often are
on dry days, with RH dropping into the single digits in western
parts of the forecast area. With all of this in mind, will continue
the fire weather watch at this time. The wind speed forecast is
borderline for local criteria, but the RH is WELL below standard
criteria, fuels are totally cured and quite dry even after recent
snow, and there is some potential for winds to overperform the
current forecast. With these conditions and temperatures in the low
90s, it will probably be a rather volatile fire weather scenario.

Speaking of those temperatures, the current forecast highs would
break or tie existing records set in 1907 at Omaha, Lincoln, and
Norfolk. It will also be in the discussion for warmest ever March
temperatures.

Sunday and Beyond:

Sunday features a stronger cold front with a greater meridional
component to the winds and cool advection. Even with a 30 degree
cool down, Sunday`s temperatures will still be much warmer than last
week with highs in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. Post-
frontal winds will be quite gusty, with gusts to 35 mph possible. No
precipitation is expected with the front, and RH will drop into the
30-40 percent range, leading to at least very high fire danger, even
with the cooler temperatures. If winds are stronger or RH a bit
lower, could approach Red Flag on Sunday as well.

Monday will be a bit cooler but with light winds will really be
quite pleasant for this time of year. Tuesday into Wednesday
features another warming trend, with good model agreement on another
cool front reaching the area late Thursday or Friday. Precip chances
through this period are quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm north-northwesterly winds will persist, with a
brief period of winds reaching 12 kts possible at KOFK this
afternoon. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear with a few
high-level clouds passing by. Calm winds will shift to
southerly later this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

418
FXUS63 KGID 201608
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1108 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...Updated Climate Section for Grand Island/Hastings Records...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions remain in the forecast through the weekend into
  most of next week.

- Record breaking temperatures are still in the forecast to end
  the week, especially on Saturday when even monthly records
  are at risk.

- Critical fire weather conditions are still a concern for
  Saturday, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect area-wide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the region tonight.
Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing little
change in the overall pattern, as we continue to sit under
northwesterly flow...set up between high pressure anchored over
the Desert SW/northward extending ridging along the West Coast
and a trough axis draped along the East Coast. Satellite imagery
also showing that outside of a few patches of mid-upper level
clouds passing through, skies are mostly clear. At the surface,
The pattern across the area remains fairly weak, with winds
either generally WSWrly or variable.

Today...

Overall not looking at any significant changes to conditions
across the region today...with the dry forecast continuing.
Models are in good agreement showing little change in the NWrly
flow aloft, though a subtle shortwave disturbance passing well
to our northeast will help to push a sfc frontal boundary
through the region through the morning hours. This boundary will
usher in a switch to more north-northwesterly winds for the
daytime hours...and while most models are in pretty good
agreement topping speeds out around 15 MPH, can`t rule out at
least a few gusts closer to 20 MPH during the earl-mid afternoon
hours, then tapering off late afternoon. Expecting mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies...with models showing high temps topping
out similar to Thursday, mainly in the mid-upper 80s. See
climate section below for more on temperature record potential.
Forecast relative humidity values are expected to fall into the
teens this afternoon...and while expected winds look to keep
critical fire wx conditions from developing, anywhere those
winds can gust closer to 20 MPH, even just occasionally,
potential for near-critical conditions will be there.

This weekend...

Dry forecast remains in place for the weekend...with Saturday
still looking to be the biggest concern of the forecast period
due to fire weather issues...with record breaking heat and
gusty winds expected. Models are in good agreement showing upper
level flow turning a bit more west-northwesterly to start the
weekend, with the main ridging flattened a touch by disturbances
crossing near the US/Can border. The thermal ridging axis looks
to slide a bit further east into the region...with mixing
potential aided by winds turning more west- southwesterly ahead
of an approaching frontal boundary. It`s not just daily high
temperature records being threatened for Mar. 21st, the all-time
March high temperature is at risk as well as highs climb into
the 90s area-wide...see the climate section below for more
record details.

The expected highs in the 90s, combined with a continued dry
airmass, is forecast to bring relative humidity values
plummeting into at least the low teens...some values in the
single digits is not out of the question. Southwesterly winds
gusting around 30 MPH is expected during the afternoon hours on
Saturday...then a complicating factor for any fires that develop
is the surface frontal boundary that will be passing through
Saturday night-early Sun AM...which will bring a switch to
northerly winds, which will continue to be gusty.

This frontal boundary brings a notably cooler end to the
weekend...with forecast highs for Sunday roughly 30 degrees
cooler than Saturday, topping out in the 60s. The gusty
northerly winds look to continue through most of the day
Sunday...the cooler temps should keep relative humidity values
from dropping much below the mid-upper 20 to mid 30 percent
range.

Monday and on...

Overall no notable changes were made to the forecast...which
remains largely dry. Current forecast highs are a bit of a
roller coaster ride...climbing into the 70s-80s by Wednesday,
then potentially back in the 50s by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures prevailed
across the region this afternoon. Temperatures so far have been
running 3-5 degrees above yesterdays hourly readings, with
record high temperatures for both Hastings and Grand Island this
afternoon well within reach.

With high pressure persisting aloft, expect warm and dry
conditions to continue through Saturday, with similar
temperatures across the region tomorrow (maybe 1-2 degrees
cooler based on 850MB temps), followed by temperatures surging
on Saturday ahead an approaching cold front. In fact, high
temperatures Saturday will likely set new all time record high
temperatures - by several degrees - for the entire month of
March!

As the front approaches on Saturday, expect an uptick in winds
as well, which combined with the hot and dry airmass will result
in critical fire weather conditions. Currently there is a fire
weather watch for Saturday - but fully expect this to eventually
be upgraded to a Red Flag warning sometime either later tonight
or on Friday.

As the front crosses the area on Sunday, expect a fairly notable
drop in temperatures for Sunday and Monday, with high
temperatures forecast to only top out in the 60s and 70s, or
still about 10 degrees above seasonal norms. In fact, expect the
upper level ridge to restrengthen across the local area again
behind this front, with a potential return to additional record
high temperatures by next Wednesday.

In short, unseasonable warm and dry conditions are favored to
finish out the month of March across the local area, with
little signal in model ensembles for any significant
precipitation chance or chance of a significant cool-down
across the local area for at least the next 10-14 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain
in the upper levels. Winds early this morning remain on the
light/variable side...turning more NNW by mid-late morning with
the passage of a weak frontal boundary. Speeds through the
daytime hours are expected to top out around 15 MPH. This
evening and overnight, winds are expected to return back to
light/variable in nature.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE
CALENDAR YEAR LIKELY SATURDAY **

An incredible (honestly historic for March) stretch of heat
continues through Saturday, with both Grand Island/Hastings airports
(the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we official Record
Event Reports/RERs) likely to experience on Saturday the HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH! In addition,
we MIGHT even break records for earliest-annual occurrence of 91+
degrees by AT LEAST 2 WEEKS! Various details follow, organized by
site:

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 20 (Fri): 84 in 1921        | 87
March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988         | 94

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 16, 2015
91 degrees......91 on April 4, 1929
92 degrees......92 on April 12, 2022
93-94 degrees...94 on April 15, 2002
95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902
99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013
100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013



-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 20 (Fri): 82 in 1939        | 87
March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910         | 94

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 23, 1910
91-92 degrees...92 on April 3, 1929
93-95 degrees...95 on April 15, 2002
96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989
97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916
99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion