Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

730
FXUS63 KOAX 251649
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible in northeast
  Nebraska this evening, with damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph)
  and hail (up to 1 inch) the primary hazards.

- Above-average temperatures continue through Wednesday, with
  highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday, primarily
  across southeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show
generally zonal flow aloft across the region, with a mid-level low
pushing onshore over British Columbia. At the surface, a broad
corridor of high pressure remains positioned to our south and east,
with southerly low-level flow gusting at 20-30 mph ushers in above-
average temperatures. Highs are expected in the mid 80s to lower 90s
today.

Storm chances return to northeast Nebraska late this afternoon and
evening along a weak area of surface convergence and near the nose
of a developing LLJ. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain weak,
with bulk shear values only around 25 kts. However, instability will
be plentiful, with a corridor of 2000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE extending
into northeast Nebraska. Given the setup, a minimally organized
cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop across north-central
Nebraska by late afternoon, then drift eastward into northeast
Nebraska during the evening hours. Damaging wind gusts (up to 65
mph) will be the primary hazard, as model soundings show a fairly
dry lowest 2 km and DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg. Hail approaching
1 inch in diameter cannot be ruled out under any stronger cores.
Areas south of a Columbus to Norfolk to Sioux City line are expected
to remain dry through the holiday. Storms should gradually weaken
and drift east-northeast late this evening into the overnight hours.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Mid- to upper-level ridging will bring mostly dry conditions Tuesday
and Wednesday, with highs continuing in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday as the
aforementioned British Columbia low shifts south and east into the
Great Basin, sending several weak shortwave disturbances through the
flow and potentially grazing the area. PoPs currently peak at 50-80%
Thursday afternoon, then remain elevated at 40-60% through Friday
afternoon. Latest NBM guidance places the highest rainfall
probabilities across southeast Nebraska, with a 50-75% probability
for at least 0.50 inch of precipitation south of Interstate-80 and a
20-50% probability northward. It is worth noting that guidance has
continued to trend better precipitation chances further south. No
day in this period currently stands out for severe weather, as the
better instability and forcing for ascent remain displaced to the
south and west, closer to the Front Range. Increased cloud cover
will keep highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday and Friday.

Periodic 15-25% PoPs continue through the weekend as a ribbon of
vorticity remains draped near the area. Highs will stay near
average, generally in the upper 70s. Beyond next week, long-range
guidance continues to show ridging building into the central Plains,
likely bringing mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period.
Southerly winds will continue at 12-16 kts, with gusts up to 25
kts before gradually calming under 12 kts through the evening. A
cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible across
northeast Nebraska this evening, though it will likely remain
north of KOFK and has not been included in the TAF at this time.
Brief MVFR conditions and wind gusts (up to 50 kts) will be
possible within the cluster of storms. Low- level wind shear
will impact KOFK overnight as a 40-45 kt low- level jet noses in
at FL015. Mid- and high- level cloud cover will increase
through the overnight period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

252
FXUS63 KGID 251954
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
254 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms possible across northwestern portions of the
  area during the late afternoon-evening hours. The strongest
  storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.

- Dry on Tuesday with highs in the 80s and breezy southerly winds.

- Scattered, low confidence chances for precipitation Wednesday
  PM through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers/storms
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

It`s a warm afternoon with most areas currently experiencing
temperaturs in the low to mid 90s. Southerly winds are breezy,
gusting 20-30mph. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible
during the late afternoon-evening hours along the surface trough in
west/central Nebraska. Weak forcing combined with poor shear (20kts)
should limit the potential strength of these storms despite CAPE of
1500-2000 J/Kg. Still, a strong to marginally severe storm (60mph
winds, small hail) could develop and impact areas mainly northwest
of the Tri-Cities this evening. Storms will steadily
weaken/dissipate after sunset as stability increases. Lows in the
50s are expected overnight with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday...

Aloft, ridging gradually builds over the area on Tuesday as a
trough/low moves into the west coast and becomes cutoff. Under the
influence of ridging, highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. Another
breezy day is expected, with southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Dry
weather is forecast for Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper level pattern transitions to a messy omega blocking
pattern (trough over west/east coasts, ridge over central U.S.)
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s,
warmest across northern portions of the area. The first wave of
energy moves into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, bringing the
first of potentially several rounds of low confidence, scattered
PoPs to the area. Models have at least some agreement that the first
round of Pops (15-65%) lift into southwestern portions of the
forecast area Wedneday afternoon/evening and continues into the
overnight hours. Models vary how far north/east PoPs make it, but
southwestern portions of have the overall highest chances. Wednesday
night`s band of showers/storms looks to stall out on Thursday,
though model spread varies on where this sets up. At least a portion
of the area could see scattered showers and storms persisting
throughout the day. Highs on Thursday will depend on storms/cloud
coverage, ranging from the 70s in rain to the 80s in dry/sunny
locations.

Friday Onwards...

Beyond the overall atmospheric pattern/setup (Omega block persists),
confidence remains low in the finer details, especially regarding
PoPs. Still, models support/indicate that multiple disturbances are
favored to move into the area throughout this time period. Model
spread results in broad 25-45% PoPs across the area Friday onwards.
As we get closer in time, the timing and location of these chances
will become clearer. Highs will generally be near to above normal,
in the 70s and 80s, though more/less rain may result in slightly
cooler/warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southerly winds
sustained around 15kts and gusting 20-25kts will persist
through sunset. Around sunset a few isolated storms may impact
KEAR, though most model guidance favors storms reaming
northwest of KEAR (main impact of storm would be gusty winds).
As surface winds decrease after sunset, LLWS will develop for
several hours overnight, but it will dissipate before sunrise as
the LLJ shifts north of the area. Winds remain southerly at
10-15kts Tuesday morning. FEW- SCT mid- high level clouds are
possible throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion