Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

795
FXUS63 KOAX 071109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today with high fire danger in parts of
  northeast Nebraska.

- Rain chances increase tonight and continue into Saturday
  night. Highest PoPs of 60-90% in northeast Nebraska and west-
  central Iowa. Some light snow could mix in Saturday evening,
  but no impacts are expected.

- Significantly colder temperatures are forecast Saturday night
  into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday in the 30s with overnight
  lows in the teens to 20s. Morning wind chills in the single
  digits to around 12.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today:

A mid-level vorticity maximum over the northern High Plains
early this morning is expected to undergo slight amplification
as it progresses southeast through the mid-MO Valley later this
morning. An associated area of mid-level clouds over north-
central NE will move through our area prior to noon with a few
sprinkles possible. Increasing sunshine this afternoon will
allow temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s, some 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Northwest winds will
strengthen on the backside of the mid-level wave, with gusts of
25-35 mph likely this afternoon. The warm temperatures coupled
with minimum RH of 25-30% and the gusty winds will lead to high
fire danger across portions of northeast NE this afternoon


Tonight through Saturday night:

A vigorous shortwave trough currently moving into British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest will progress into the
northern Plains tonight before advancing through the mid-MO
Valley on Saturday. That mid-level system will be attended by a
double surface low structure that will move through our area on
Saturday. A significantly colder air mass is forecast to surge
into the region from the north late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night with the passage of the surface low to the
east/southeast.

Strengthening low/mid-level frontogenesis ahead of the surface
low and mid-level wave will support the development of rain
showers initially across northeast NE after midnight. Precipitation
coverage is expected to increase late tonight into Saturday
morning with the highest PoPs (60-90%) forecast across northeast
NE into west-central IA. An additional round of scattered
showers is possible (20-40% PoPs) Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night owing to steepening lapse rates and increased
forcing for ascent tied to the mid-level vorticity maximum
tracking through the area. Some light snow could mix in with the
rain Saturday evening into Saturday night (especially from
northeast NE into western IA), though no accumulation is
expected. Highest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter inch are
expected from parts of northeast NE into west-central IA.

Winds will strengthen from the northwest on Saturday with gusts
of 30-40 mph possible. The gusty winds are expected to continue
into Saturday night.

High temperatures on Saturday will be a function of cloud cover
and precipitation areal coverage with this forecast update
indicating readings in the 40s across northeast NE and western
IA and 50s in southeast NE. As mentioned above, a signficantly
colder air mass will overspread the region Saturday night with
lows in the teens and 20s and wind chills ranging from the
single digits above zero to around 12.


Sunday into Monday morning:

Building high pressure will maintain a continental polar air
mass across the region with Sunday afternoon highs in the 30s
and Monday morning lows in the teens. Wind chills in the single
digits above zero to around 12 are again expected.


Monday through Thursday:

An initially meridional, mid-level flow regime over the central
U.S. will become increasingly zonal this period as a deep
trough east of the MS Valley weakens and shifts east. That
pattern evolution will support a warming trend with daytime
highs returning to the 50s and 50s in the Tue-Thu timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A weak disturbance moving into the area this morning is
contributing to increasing clouds in the FL090-120 layer, which
will linger through about 15z. A few sprinkles are possible
prior that time with the best chance at KLNK. Clouds will
diminish by late morning with northwest winds strengthening to
15-16 kt with gusts of 25-26 kt. The winds will diminish by
08/00z with clouds increasing again overnight. Rain shower
chances increase toward 08/12z at KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

455
FXUS63 KGID 071159
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A nice finish to the work week with afternoon temperatures
  returning to the mid 60s and generally modest northwesterly
  breezes (mainly less than 20 MPH).

- Strong winds, cooler temperatures and elevated fire weather
  conditions anticipated for Saturday. A few showers will also
  be possible, mainly northeast of the tri-cities during the
  morning hours Saturday (and possibly again Saturday night).
  Small pops (15-30%) and low QPF (T-0.01") in the forecast for
  Saturday AM.

- A very cold finish to the weekend with high temperatures
  mainly in the 30s Sunday afternoon with lows likely in the
  teens Sunday night.

- Sundays drop in temperatures will be brief, with temperatures
  returning to the 60s and lower 70s for much of next week (Tue-
  Fri). Monday will likely be a transition day, with Highs only
  climbing into the 40s to near 50. Dry weather is expected over
  this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A quiet night across the local area as skies started out the
night clear with some mid-level clouds moving in from the west
early this morning. Radar is indicating some light returns with
this cloud cover, but given cloud bases near 9KFT (BBW) upstream
of the area, even sprinkles look like a stretch for most of the
area this morning. That said, cloud cover will be a bit more
persistent northeast of the tri-cities for the next couple of
hours, and introduced a small chance for a sprinkle in
coordination with the OAX office along our borders for the early
morning hours.

Once this cloud cover rapidly exits to the east during the
morning hours, expect a mostly sunny and fairly pleasant
afternoon across the region with high temperatures returning to
the 60s for the vast majority of the local area accompanied by
mainly modest northwest breezes (10-20 MPH) behind yesterdays
cold front.

Big changes are on the way for Saturday, however, as models
continue to indicate a second much stronger cold front
traversing the area Saturday morning. While most of the model
data yesterday was indicating shower activity with this front
would be northeast of the local area Saturday morning, pops have
continued to creep their way southwest into portions of our
area. That said, temperatures Saturday morning should be above
freezing and any QPF will be minimal, with generally a Trace to
maybe a couple of hundredths of an inch of precip possible
northeast of the tri-cities, resulting in minimal impacts from
any precipitation locally. Therefore, the main concern with this
front remains the strong northwest winds and elevated fire
weather concerns Saturday afternoon. 06Z HRRR is indicating
gusts to near 40KTS will be possible across much of the area
during the afternoon hours Saturday, which while very windy,
should remain below high wind warning criteria. As a result,
kept the previous wording of 45 MPH gusts and possibly higher
going in the HWO this morning and upped the blended model
forecast appropriately.

As a secondary push of cold air slides south across the area
Saturday night, brace for well below normal temperatures on
Sunday. In addition, while the forecast remains dry over this
period, some models are hinting at very light QPF Saturday
night, which if realized could bring some flurries or very
light snow to northeastern portions of the area. For the time
being, the forecast remains dry over this period, although could
envision adding some flurries being added to the forecast
Saturday night if trends persist.

Otherwise, Monday should be a transition day with temperatures
moderating across the local area before rapidly climbing back
above normal (70s?) by Tuesday and then fluctuating 5-15 degrees
above normal through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period.

Expect mid level clouds to rapidly exit to the east early this
morning with breezy northwest winds...to near 20
KTS...anticipated this afternoon. Winds should become light and
variable this evening ahead of the next cold front, with a few
increasing clouds expected late in the period. Very strong
northwest winds are anticipated behind this front during the
daytime hours Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion