Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

777
FXUS63 KOAX 111908
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday (40-60% chance) with
  another chance for severe storms Saturday during the from 3 to
  8 AM.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Quieter conditions have settled in this afternoon after the
substantial morning storm activity, with highs this afternoon
largely in the upper 70s alongside breezy northwesterly winds
gusting to 25-35 mph. Zooming out a bit to the larger pattern,
mid/upper troughing continues to push through the area, warding off
additional rain chances for the day and into tomorrow for our local
area. We`ll enjoy mostly clear skies tomorrow, with winds
switching back out of the southwest that will help us reach
back into the mid 80s for high temperatures. Those temperatures
will feel a lot better than they have lately, with afternoon
humidity values falling to 25- 40% as opposed to the 60% or
higher values we`ve seen with the hotter days earlier this week.

Saturday and Beyond:

The main focus of the forecast now shifts to Saturday, where the
mid/upper pattern continues to transition out of troughing and into
more zonal flow -- spurred on by the convergence of a pair of
shortwaves across the Central Plains. Those two features are set to
bring back rain chances to the area, with sufficient instability and
shear being present to allow for severe potential. The first and
most troublesome to nail down for the forecast is coming in from the
northwest, dragging a cold front with it while it flattens out the
upper pattern. The timing of this feature will be key to the timing
and overall ceiling for the severe threat for Saturday, with recent
trends continuing to show a quick arrival of the front, which is now
being resolved in 12z CAM guidance as a swath of elevated storms
materializing over south-central Nebraska around 3 AM that
progresses to the east-northeast through 8 AM. Working along with
that impinging shortwave from the northwest, a shortwave and lee
cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and organize a highly-
sheared baroclinic zone across southern Nebraska, with the nosing
LLJ to its east service as the initiating mechanism. The elevated
nature of these storms make hail the primary hazard, with sporadic
damaging wind being the secondary. If the approach of the cold
front slows, we`ll have more time for instability to increase
into the morning and afternoon, at which time additional hazards
would be in play. For now, the lower ceiling hail, flood, and
wind scenario seems the most likely from 3-8 AM barring seismic
shifts in future model runs.

Sunday into next week trends cooler with northwesterly mid/upper
flow ushering in Canadian air while low-amplitude ridging
builds over the western third of the CONUS. We`ll have
additional chances at rainfall as shortwaves ripple through the
flow, with hot temperatures being not too far over the High
Plains. If there`s a better time for rain chances to return,
Tuesday/Wednesday would be the next bet for meaningful precip
as a cold front dives south through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, with
northerly to northwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 mph across the
area. Those gusts are set to continue through the afternoon
before tapering off from 00-02z this evening. By 06z, winds will
swing southwesterly while remaining light, with directions
expected to settle out of the west-southwest by the morning
hours at below 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

492
FXUS63 KGID 112111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may
  bring a few strong storms to the area. The severe threat,
  however, looks to remain limited through Saturday morning.

- A slight risk of severe weather covers only a few southeast
  portions of the area Saturday afternoon. This threat is highly
  conditional based on the timing of the front on Saturday.

- Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the
  low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the
  90s to potentially the low 100s in a handful of places by
  midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026


Tonight and Friday...

Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low
80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time
in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe
weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that
has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally
ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal,
generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher
pressure marching in behind last night`s front has helped clear out
most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as
response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few
degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and
beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to
southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from
today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon.


Friday Night into Saturday...

A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over
Canada`s Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains
region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer
of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold
front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few
storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday
into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe
weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would
not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or
gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms.
Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts
of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong
storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture
will rebound from today. The current forecast projects dewpoints to
only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at least initially, generally
not all that supportive. A few of these overnight storms may linger
into Saturday morning as the front passes through the area.

A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited
southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a
line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be
highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday
morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the
front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in
the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take
place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip
our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards
will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms
wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a
few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will
turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH
winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon.


Sunday and Beyond...

Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the
flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern
does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs
(10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast
period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that
stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out
for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back
to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The primary concern is breezy northwesterly winds throughout
the remainder of the day today. As the sun sets and mixing
decreases, so should the breezy northwesterly winds. Winds
overnight will decrease and eventually become variable. By
morning, southerly winds will return to both terminals with
winds between 10-18kts. Skies are generally going to be clear
with some high clouds possible late. VFR conditions expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion