Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

315
FXUS63 KOAX 240112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
812 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue through
  afternoon and evening (15% chance of severe for any given
  storm), with the greatest risk between 2 PM and 8 PM.

- Dry conditions behind the front are driving extreme fire
  danger for areas of northeast Nebraska, with a Red Flag
  Warning in effect.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday
  (60-90%).

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The red flag warning has been allowed to expire. A cold front
continues to move through the region. Cooling temperatures and
increasing relative humidity will limit fire danger. Wind speeds
should gradually decrease overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad mid/upper trough
pushing to the south and east with forcing for ascent apparent
already over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Recent surface
observations show the front draped from south-central Nebraska into
northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa with a slow move to the east
set through the afternoon. This system has brought with it strong
winds throughout the vertical column, helping to increase shear
while lapse rates to work along with steep lapse rates to provide a
favorable environment for severe storms. Even now, increasing
vertical development is occurring over northeast Nebraska,
where updrafts aided by mid/upper height falls and frontal
convergence.

Just to keep things organized, I`ll set out the main expectations
for the day and get further into the hazard. Initial showers and
storms are ongoing across northeast Nebraska, as updrafts fight
weak capping at 850-700 mb. These showers and storms are
expected to be strong to marginally severe, with only a handful
of storms being able to make it past the inhibition to reach a
stronger level. This area will generally be limited to areas
north of a line from Columbus to Wahoo through 1 PM. Between 1
and 3 PM, stronger storm development will become likely. Strong
to severe storms will begin to initiate, and be more isolated at
first as weaker updrafts fail fail to break through. Those
cells will be more likely the farther north you move along the
front, and this semi-isolated storm regime will continue until 5
PM. Those cells will initiate generally east of a line From
there, further erosion of any capping inversion will occur and
the largely in-line component of deeper-shear vectors will help
dive upscale growth, and transition storm mode into a liner/QLCS
character as it pushes east and out of the forecast area by 8
PM.

Getting into hazards, the more isolated storms will hold the
greatest threat for hail, as they will be able to maintain rotating
mid/level mesocyclones and tap into the steep lapse rates. Hail
analogs up and down the line show plenty potential for 2+ inch hail,
with some curvature in the lower hodograph to support an isolated
tornado threat. As storms grow upscale, hail would become less
favored, transitioning to wind, QLCS tornado, and marginal hail as
the hazards. The best tornado potential will be associated with
storms that can bend back a bit to be northwest, or where remnants
of any supercells remain embedded in the line. This QLCS regime will
then push eastward, limiting the training that could occur and limit
the overall flood threat.

Not to be forgotten, very dry conditions will fall into place behind
the front with RH values between 10-25% and winds increasing to 20-
30 mph. A wind shift will push through late this evening and
increase to 40 mph gusts, but with increasing RH at that point.
Those factors are pushing fire danger into the extreme category for
northeast Nebraska, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 PM
for the threat.

Friday and Beyond:

A generally busy pattern is on tap entering the weekend into next
week. Numerous chances for rainfall will move through the area,
driven first by the leftover low spinning over southern Canada
before it gets kicked out by a deepening shortwave that pushes east
from the Pacific Coast later next week. The main period to watch for
will be Sunday into early Monday, where widespread rainfall is set
to move into the area, and potentially some strong storms as well
based on latest machine-learning output. The timing of that system
will entirely dictate if severe weather occurs; a late arrival that
delays most of the rainfall until nighttime would greatly hamper
severe potential. Nevertheless, we should do some good work to make
back some much-needed rainfall to the area as temperatures in the
50s and 60s continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Now that the storms this evening have passed east and clear of the
KOMA/KLNK terminals, VFR conditions are expected to retain across
the rest of the period for all three sites. A few broken cloud bases
as low as 10,000ft this evening will soon raise and scatter out
across the next 6-9 hours. Mostly clear to clear skies will then
dominate the remainder of the night and first half of the day
Friday (a few high-level clouds moving in Friday afternoon).

Winds out of the northwest this evening will hold on to a few
residual gusts as high as 20-25kts for KOMA/KLNK (up to 30kts for
KOFK). Gusts will later drop off as wind directions steer more
northerly close to just after 6z. Winds through the early afternoon
hours Friday are expected to remain steady (between 10-15kts) with
speeds becoming light between 18-22z. Winds directions will also
become variable near the end of the 0z TAF period as higher
surface pressure moves into the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Chehak
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

788
FXUS63 KGID 240001
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
701 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions
  continues for our entire forecast area (CWA) through 9 PM.
  Another round of near-critical conditions appears likely on
  Friday afternoon mainly in our "southwestern quadrant", but
  beyond that, we should catch at least a several-days break
  from fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section
  below for more details).

- A little patchy frost possible (not a "sure thing") in our far
  west-northwest CWA early Friday morning, but opted against a
  formal Advisory given the anticipated limited
  coverage/duration of any possible frost.

- A few weak thunderstorms possible mainly in our western-
  northern CWA Friday night.

- This weekend brings more widespread rain chances (MUCH-
  needed!), but perhaps also at least a limited/Marginal threat
  for severe storms mainly within the southern half of our CWA.
  Primary concern is Saturday and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings,
  but still a LOT of details to sort out as the HIGHEST regional
  severe weather risks should focus south of our CWA.

- Although there will certainly be lower/higher exceptions
  (there always are with thunderstorms involved), much of our
  CWA is currently expected to receive at least 0.50-1.00" of
  beneficial rain over the weekend.

- Temperature-wise: Much of the next 7 days will lean toward the
  slightly-cooler side by late April standards...with highs on
  most days between the upper 50s-low 70s..and lows on most
  nights between the upper 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Really no big changes of note from previous forecast.

- General comments on weekend severe storm potential: By FAR our
  main concern over the next 3-4 days will be assessing the
  possibility for at least a few severe storms mainly Saturday
  and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings. One of the main
  uncertainties involves IF (and if so) how far north a surface
  warm front might lift into our area. Especially on Saturday,
  it appears the main warm sector/instability axis should focus
  south of our CWA, keeping any possible severe threat in our
  CWA more along the lines of elevated hail storms. Sunday is
  obviously less-clear (and will likely depend somewhat on what
  happens Saturday night), but the warm front might TRY lifting
  north into our CWA, perhaps resulting in a somewhat-
  greater/more surface-based severe storm threat. Like Saturday
  though, any higher-end severe threat appears it should in
  theory focus at least slightly south of CWA. Plenty of details
  still to sort out, but at least at this Day 3-4 range, it`s
  probable that any severe threat we do see should focus within
  the southern half of our CWA (counties south of I-80 and down
  into northern KS).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. April
 30):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Although it was a very close call (severe storms developed
within 10-15 miles of our extreme eastern CWA), as has been
expected here for at least 24 hours now, the southwest-northeast
axis of severe storms along the cold front fired up SLIGHTLY
east-through-southeast of our CWA...with numerous Warnings
issued/ongoing within southeast NE/western IA...and probably
soon to be eastern KS. Meanwhile, back here in our area, the
cold front/dryline unsurprisingly packed a little more punch
than expected in terms of wind speeds (gusts commonly 25-35 MPH
out of the west-northwest) and also very low dewpoints/relative
humidity (RH). Fortunately as of this writing we are not aware
of any wildfire starts in our CWA, but a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect CWA-wide through 9 PM (see separate fire
weather section below for more).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, the southern fringes
of disturbance extending southward from a large closed low
spiraling over Montana northward into Canada is passing through
the Central Plains, which in concert with the well-defined
surface cold front/dryline has fired up the aforementioned
severe storms to our east.

Under a varied mix of mostly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (any
clouds of the mid-high level variety), high temps this afternoon
are on track to top out 76-83 degrees across most of the CWA (if
anything just a touch warmer than forecast).


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Our CWA remains dry, with any severe storms moving ever-farther
away to our east-southeast, and any potential for chilly
rain/snow remaining well to our northwest along the NE/SD
border. Skies through the first part of the night will average
partly cloudy, but trend toward mostly clear with time. At the
surface, breezes will remain gusty for a time this evening as
they turn northerly behind a weak cold front (gusts still 25-30+
MPH likely until closer to midnight). However, late tonight into
early Fri AM, northerly breezes will diminish to no more than
5-10 MPH. Low temps are aimed from mid 30s far north/west-
central (mainly Gosper/Dawson up through Valley/Greeley
counties), while most of the remainder of our CWA should bottom
out upper 30s-low 40s. In the aforementioned coldest areas
north/west, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out, and this has
been added to our official forecast and Hazardous Weather
Outlook. However, with any frost expected to be limited in
coverage and duration, opted against a formal Advisory.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Confidence is high that our entire CWA should remain dry through
at least 7 PM, with sunny skies gradually giving way to some
clouds drifting in from the west by late afternoon. At the
surface, the day starts with north-northeasterly winds around 10
MPH, then a period of variable direction around mid-day as a
high pressure axis slips through, then followed by a gradual
increase in southeasterly breezes mid-late afternoon into early
evening. The strongest breezes with gusts 20+ MPH should focus
within our southwestern quadrant or so (near-critical fire
weather possible). High temps were nudged upward a few degrees,
now aimed 70-75 most places, and any cooler upper 60s mainly in
our extreme north.


- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
While most of our CWA most likely stays dry, especially roughly
the northwest half of our CWA stands at least some chance of
seeing isolated/scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms
as the first in a parade of several weekend upper waves moves
in. Winds will average 10-15 MPH out of the east-southeast
through the night, which combined with increasing clouds/spotty
precip should keep low temps at least 3-6 degrees milder than
tonight, with our latest forecast calling for low-upper 40s most
areas.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT:
It`s still a touch early to start doing a "deep dive" into the
details of severe storm potential (see paragraph above in the
"big picture" section for some general stuff), but the bottom
line is that these 48 hours look to be relative active in terms
of rain/thunderstorm potential as a series of upper disturbances
track through the Central Plains in persistent west-
southwesterly flow aloft, with the overall-strongest shortwave
trough arriving into our area late Sunday daytime into Sunday
night. While both days/nights will surely feature some rain and
storm potential (again any possible severe storms would mainly
favor our south half), Sunday into Sunday night feature the
overall-highest chances for widespread measurable rain
(widespread 80-90+%) per our latest forecast. Given the
expectation that our CWA should mostly remain north of the main
warm front/instability axis to our south, high temperatures are
only forecast to reach mainly mid 50s-mid-60s Saturday, and low-
upper 60s Sunday...but again this depends on "exact" frontal
position, how stuck we are under lower clouds etc. As earlier
stated, there is decent potential for at least most of our CWA
to pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain...hopefully this trend
continues.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
While spotty rain chances remain in our forecast, this mainly
looks like a dry time frame (at least beyond Monday AM), as the
weekend system passes off to our east. For sure, convective
instability departs our region, ending any possible severe storm
threat from the weekend. High temps remain seasonably-
cool...mainly aimed 60s both days.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Still considerable uncertainy at this time range, but there are
hints of increasing rain chances (at least of the scattered
variety) as a few disturbances drop down into our region out of
the west-northwest (large scale upper flow transitions to more
northwesterly during this time). Convective instability and any
associated severe storm threat appears fairly meager. High temps
currently projected mainly mid-upper 60s on Wednesday, then
only near-60 on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to retain across the 0z TAF period. A
few clouds overtop this evening will clear out overnight with a
few high-level clouds moving back in Friday afternoon. As for
winds, northwest winds gusting as high as 20-25kts will continue
across the next few hours with gusts dropping out after
midnight. Wind directions will slowly become northerly oriented
overnight with a period of light and variable winds
materializing between 16-22z as higher pressure moves in.
Wind directions Friday afternoon will organize out of the
southeast.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- REST OF TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
A Red Flag Warning continues for our entire forecast area (CWA),
and has been extended one hour longer into the evening...now
until 9 PM. As often happens in deeply-mixed, post-frontal
regimes, wind speeds have at least slightly "overachieved"
previous forecast expectations, with sustained speeds commonly
at least 15-25 MPH/gusts consistently 25-35 MPH out of the
weset-northwest. The overall-strongest winds have focused within
the northwestern two-thirds of our area, but even far southeast
areas will see sporadic gusts to around 25 MPH. As for relative
humidity (RH), it has easily dropped below our critical
criteria, with the majority of our area reporting 10-15 %
(localized lower). Especially between 7-9 PM, winds will shift
more northerly (versus westerly), especially within our Nebraska
forecast area.

- FRIDAY:
Although outright-critical conditions are not currently
anticipated, roughly the southwestern quadrant of our CWA
appears it will experience near-critical fire weather conditions
especially from mid-afternoon into early evening. This will be
due to the combination of southeast winds gusting at least 20
MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 20-25 percent.

- BEYOND FRIDAY:
Some good news on the fire weather front! Although not
necessarily "in the clear" for the spring season, it appears we
catch at least a several-days break from critical fire weather
concerns. This will be due to a varied combination of cooler
temperatures, higher dewpoints/RH (especially over the weekend),
along with intermittent and potentially somewhat widespread
soaking rain potential (especially this weekend).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion