Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

000
FXUS63 KOAX 231158
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
658 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

The primary upper-air feature of interest into the weekend is a
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies which will translate
southeast into the central Plains. In the low levels, an
associated surface low over the northern High Plains will slowly
develop south along the western periphery of an expansive
anticyclone which will remain in place over the Great Lakes.
Between those features, a weak surface boundary will remain quasi-
stationary to our west, and be the primary focus for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Early this morning, a small cluster of thunderstorms has persisted
along the immediate cool side of that low-level boundary over
south-central NE, aided by modest warm advection along a
nocturnal low-level jet. Some of that convection could linger
into mid morning, potentially affecting some of our southwest
counties. Otherwise, the influence of the Great Lakes surface high
will yield mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

As mentioned above, it appears that the best precipitation chances
will remain to our west through Saturday. By Saturday night into
Sunday, the aforementioned boundary will edge east with the
arrival of the northern Rockies disturbance into the region,
supporting an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across
our area.

Afternoon temperatures will be mainly in the mid 70s to lower
80s through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Indications are that an intense mid-level low will form over
central Canada next week with a broader trough encompassing the
north-central and northeastern states. In the low levels, an
associated cold front will move through our area Sunday night into
Monday. That frontal passage will likely be accompanied by
showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures.

There is some indication in model data that a perturbation
embedded in the broader-scale trough will traverse our area in the
Tuesday night-Wednesday timeframe, supporting a better chance of
showers. Otherwise, it appears that mild temperatures will
continue through at least the middle part of the upcoming week
with daytime highs largely in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions west of KOFK and KLNK due to
ceilings in the 500-3000 ft AGL range through 17Z today.
Otherwise VFR conditions and persistent easterly winds in the
10-15 mph range should prevail through 12Z Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Albright

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

000
FXUS63 KGID 231113
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Hectic shift ongoing as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), or a
Neddy Eddy for you old timers,  has triggered thunderstorms that
have and still are dumping copious amounts of rain across small
parts of the CWA. The worst hit so far has been Sherman County where
amounts may have exceeded 6 inches. The MCV has been sliding ever so
slowly to the southeast and is currently dumping heaving rain over
southern Hall and much of Adams Counties. IR satellite imagery
showing no signs of tops warming so expect this activity to last
several more hours.

Backing up a bit to the big picture, an active northern stream
continues in the upper levels with troughing in the northeast U.S.,
weak ridging over the northern Plains, and another trough over the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was situated over the lee of
the Rockies, with high pressure over the Great Lakes region. This is
keeping our area in upslope flow in the lower levels.

For today, expecting another day similar to Thursday with weak
upslope sustaining extensive cloud cover and temps staying in the
70s for most of the CWA, except the far south where lower 80s are
forecast. Will need to monitor current tstm complex but once that
moves out of the CWA or weakens, don`t expect a lot of precip during
the day.  That being said, it really hasn`t taken much forcing to
result in rain so plan to go with at least slight PoPs. None of the
models, including the CAMs have been of much help with this latest
system so not sure how much we can rely on them.

For tonight, it does look like the upper trough over the Rockies
will begin to slowly push east, bringing us another chance for
rain, especially in the western CWA. Better severe chances appear to
stay just to the west but will need to monitor as the day goes
along.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Will keep this short due to ongoing tstms, some severe. Off and
on rain chances are expected to continue into the weekend as we
remain under the influence of the upper trough which will take its
time moving through the central Plains. Best chances for rain
appear to be Sat into Sunday morning, but could also get clipped
Sunday night before wave pushes east.

As we move into the work week, it appears rain chances will
decrease, but not completely go away. Models are showing our area
will be sitting in between a broad low amplitude trough to the
northeast and ridging to the southwest. Thus we may get periodic
shortwaves moving through the northwest flow, depending on how much
the SW ridge builds into the region. As far as temps go, should be
below seasonal with 70s most of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Expect IFR conditions to continue this morning with some
improvement this afternoon. With low level southeast flow,
extensive cloud cover to remain through the period. Fair chance
for addtional shower/tstm activity but difficult to pin down the
exact time of when that will be. Seems like best chance would be
late in the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion