Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

801
FXUS63 KOAX 261717
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather continues through Saturday, with a strong to
  severe storm possible Saturday evening, primarily across
  northeast Nebraska.

- Heat build this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected
  Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110
  degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next
  week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon reveal
generally zonal flow across the central Plains, with a few embedded
shortwave disturbances aloft as an amplifying trough moves into the
western CONUS. Cloud cover will be slow to erode through the day,
especially across southeast NE and southwest IA, where the northern
edge of the cloud shield associated with a departing surface low
continues to brush the area. Some improvement is expected by the
afternoon and evening, but highs should remain limited to the 70s to
low 80s. Today is a great day to take care of any outdoor chores
before the heat builds in. A low-level overcast cloud deck will work
in from the south overnight.

By Saturday and into the weekend, the amplifying trough to our west
will force mid-level ridging to build into the central Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the approaching system and
associated surface low to our west, a warm front will slowly lift
northward across the area Saturday, accompanied by increasing
moisture transport. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to
mid 80s, likely held back somewhat by cloud cover, while dewpoints
climb into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Precipitation chances return Saturday evening, generally in the 25-5
0% range across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, along the
northward advancing front as the low-level jet strengthens and noses
into it. This potential remains conditions. If storms are able to
develop, sufficient shear and instability would support a strong to
severe storm or two, with isolated hail and damaging wind gusts the
primary hazards. However, rising mid-level heights may be enough to
suppress convective initiation altogether. Any strong chances should
shift northward overnight.

Sunday and Beyond...

Sunday into early next week, a mid-level ridge will continue to
build into the central Plains and Mid-South, leading to a notable
increase in temperatures across the region. Confidence is highest
that Sunday and Monday will be among the hottest days of the period
for most locations, with highs generally in the 94 to 100 degree
range. Southerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph will help draw richer
moisture northward, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. This will push heat index values into the uncomfortable 105
to 110 degree range, with the highest values expected across
southwest Iowa where the higher dewpoints reside. Relief is not on
the horizon, as high temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90s
through the work week with daily heat index values generally in the
95 to 105 degree range.

Heading into Monday, the western trough is expected to begin edging
farther into the Plains as a stronger mid-level jet streak lifts
across the northern Plains. This should help to nudge the ridge
slightly eastward and bringing periodic precipitation chances back
to the region. From Monday onward, nightly PoPs generally remain in
the 20-50% range. A very unstable air mass is expected to be in
place during this time, though the overall severe weather potential
will depend heavily on the timing and track of any subtle shortwave
energy ejecting out of the trough, especially with shear expected to
remain somewhat limited.

Ensemble guidance continues to show at least some QPF signal in or
near the forecast area each night, with support from the GEFS, EPS
and EPS-AIFS. EPS- and GEFS-based machine learning guidance also
continue to show low-end severe weather probabilities, generally in
the 5-15% range, Monday through Wednesday. The overall pattern
remains supportive of one or more nocturnal MCSs early next week, as
a strengthening low-level jet feeds moisture and elevated
instability into the region along the edge of the ridge. However,
confidence in timing and placement remains low and will depend
heavily on mesoscale details. Any convection could locally temper
the heat through cloud cover and outflow, but the broader hot and
humid pattern is expected to persist through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A deck of MVFR ceilings remain in place across southeast
Nebraska this afternoon. While VFR conditions are favorite this
afternoon, brief periods of MVFR conditions may work into KLNK.
A broken to overcast cloud deck at FL050-080 will remain in
place through the day. Otherwise, widespread IFR ceilings are
expected to overspread all the terminals later this evening into
the overnight period. Patchy LIFR conditions will be possible
early Saturday morning, primarily at KLNK. Ceilings will slowly
break up and improve after 27/14Z. Winds will remain light and
out of the east- southeast, increasing in the final few hours of
the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

064
FXUS63 KGID 261801
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible through the mid morning hours with highs
  today in the upper 70s.

- Highs on Sunday in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees wit
  heat index values of 95 to 105 degrees.

- Hot and breezy conditions continue next week with highs in the
  90s and heat index values in the 90s to low 100s. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing across the area this morning under
overcast skies. Aloft a weak disturbance over the plains is embedded
within broadly zonal flow. Patchy fog currently located over
southwest Nebraska may sneak into western portions of the area
through the mid-morning hours, but dense or widespread fog appears
unlikely. Showers/fog will come to an end by the mid-morning hours
as the disturbance departs the area. Widespread stratus will be slow
to clear today limiting daytime heating, though sunshine returning
by the mid afternoon should allow highs to reach the upper 70s.

Another round of widespread stratus and fog develops over the area
tonight-Saturday morning. Within this stratus deck, drizzle or weak
showers are possible, though any accumulations will be
light/minimal. Similar to today, lingering stratus may be slow to
clear and lead to a slightly cooler day than currently forecast
(current highs low 90s southwest-low 80s northeast). Breezy winds
are expected during the day, gusting 20-30mph.

Southwesterly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday as troughing
deepens over the western U.S. Highs on sunday and Monday soar into
the 90s to around 100. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s combined with
highs results in heat index values topping out around 105 degrees
(near Heat Advisory criteria). Should the forecast remain on track
or increase slightly, a headline may be needed for a portion of the
area. Otherwise, southwesterly flow remains in place through the end
of the forecast period. This keeps above normal temperatures in
place with highs in the 90s and breezy winds each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For the rest of the day and overnight, scattered off and on showers
with very isolated thunder will be present through the evening
hours, tapering off overnight and towards Friday morning. The
latest guidance, including high-res ensemble guidance keeps the
bulk of any additional rainfall to the south and east of the
area. There is a potential that Rooks county could be clipped by
some stronger activity that slides southeast out of western
Nebraska and Kansas and could bring additional water concerns
if that does occur, but confidence is not high on that solution.

The upper level pattern shifts Friday as an upper low digs into
the Pacific Northwest. This causes the Central Plains to be
under southwesterly upper level flow with a low developing in
the lee of the Rockies. This will cause moist southerly return
flow to the region. The tightening gradient will keep winds
breezy at times, stronger than we`ve seen for a few days.
Likewise, temperatures will be much warmer, with highs quickly
returning to the upper 80s and low 90s for Saturday and then 90s
will be widespread on Sunday and Monday.

Model solutions indicate that 70+ dewpoints will surge back
north. The highest dewpoint values will be across eastern
Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri, etc. That being said, this will
be quite a shock to the system after the cooler past week has
been. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are possible
especially along and east of Highway 81. Contrastingly, the
dryline will set up across western Kansas and the moisture
gradient will be visible where the drier air is able to mix out
and temps surge even higher...primarily western portions of
north central Kansas.

As June ends and July begins next week, temperatures look to
stay in the 90s while the trough persists out west with ridging
to the east of the Plains. Disturbances ejecting out of the
upper low in the west could cause a few sporadic precipitation
chances to impact the area next week, confidence in any details
is low.

There is an indication that the pattern will break down towards
the end of the work week and holiday weekend begins which could
allow for slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances over the
holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The MVFR stratus deck is starting to lift and break up,
eventually lifting to VFR in the late afternoon/early evening.
Tonight, ceilings will quickly drop to MVFR and IFR conditions
around 07 and 10Z respectively. However, there is some
uncertainty with how quickly the IFR ceilings move in. This
lower stratus layer is expected to remain overnight through the
end of the forecast period.

Fog development is also likely between 10-14Z. However, there
is some uncertainty with the timing of this fog as well as the
visibility impacts, as stronger surface winds will limit fog
development. Worst case scenario, visibilities may reduce to
under 1 SM. The most likely case is for MVFR/VFR visibilities to
develop, as mentioned in the TAF. However, stronger surface
winds may limit fog development, keeping visibilities VFR.

Surface winds are expected to remain SE around 10-12 kts
throughout most of the forecast period, gusting up to 20 kts by
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion