Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

772
FXUS63 KOAX 271041
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
541 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm chances remain overnight in the southern
  tiers of counties of the forecast area. Damaging wind, hail,
  and heavy rain will be the primary threats.

- Training storms could produce heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa overnight.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected next week with little to
  no additional chances for precipitation forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mid-level short-wave ejected from the Four Corners area this
afternoon and is pushing through central Kansas now.

KOAX`s radar beams had not been returning to the radome as they
had no convection to bounce off of in the subsidence behind
this afternoon`s convection.

With the LLJ ramping up, a new area of convection that
originated in western Kansas has been increasing in coverage
this evening as it is about to cross into the area. Surface
analysis places the warm front closer to Oklahoma than Nebraska,
so the instability and convection in this part of the country
is elevated. Forecast soundings from the Beatrice area show
about 5,000 feet of stable air under the elevated instability.
For that reason, the tornado threat across far southeastern
Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight is near zero. Hail and
perhaps a damaging gust remains possible with the strongest
storms expected to develop overnight, but convection allowing
guidance keeps the strongest storms just on the other side of
the NE/KS border and confidence in that solution only grows.
Considered canceling the flash flood watch in far SE Nebraska/SW
Iowa as QPF has slipped closer to 1-1.5" (vs 2.5") at maximum
and in some of the best drained areas of the forecast area. Have
decided to let it ride for now.

Have added patchy fog to the western half of the forecast area
overnight. Observations show visibility falling below 2 miles at
times.

The convection is progged to grow upscale and should be
clearing western Iowa by 8:00 AM, leaving the trailing cold
front plodding southeast across the CWA over the course of
Monday. High temperatures will range from 50 near Niobrara, NE
to 70 along the Missouri state line. Omaha should peak close to
a seasonal norm in the mid-60s. Behind the cold front, northwest
winds will gust up to 35-40 mph.

.LONGER TERM...

The remainder of the forecast stays relatively quiet with little
to no chance at additional spring precipitation over the next
seven days. The southwest flow at H5 will veer and come out of
the northwest as general trofing moves through the central CONUS
mid-week. The NBM has introduced 25% PoPs on Thursday with a
cold front sweeping through.

Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning may both bring patchy
frost to far northeast Nebraska, especially in low lying areas
as winds are expected to decouple overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Showers with a few rumbles of thunder are moving across
southeast Nebraska toward KOMA this morning. We`ve seen cigs
improve as showers move in with low clouds breaking up, but
expect them to return with the wind shift later this morning.
MVFR/IFR conditions to hold into the afternoon with gradual
improvement. Low clouds have a 60% chance of breaking up later
tonight around 05-07Z bringing back VFR conditions.

Winds out of the south or southwest this morning will shift to
northwesterly once the front moves through. Winds will be
increasing through the morning, gusting 20 to 30 kt this
afternoon. Winds will gradually relax through the evening, with
gusts dropping off toward 05-07Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ068-090>093.
IA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

535
FXUS63 KGID 270658
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
158 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for north central
  Kansas until 4 AM this morning.

- Fog has developed and may continue into the early morning
  hours. Dense fog is not currently expected.

- Near to below freezing temperatures may be present
  tonight/Tuesday morning with higher confidence (around 70%)
  Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across portions of south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. North central
Kansas is currently in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 AM.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across portions of
central and north central Kansas. Fog has developed across most of
the forecast area. There is some uncertainty as to how long it will
stay around and how dense it will get. Latest observations show that
visibilities are improving somewhat but visibilities could go down
again later in the night. Low temperatures overnight are expected to
range from the upper 30s to mid 50s. Showers and storms may linger
into the morning hours but are generally expected to be out of the
area by mid afternoon. Winds this afternoon will be out of the
northwest with gusts up to 20 to 30+ MPH. High temperatures today
are expected to range from the low 50s to mid 60s. Rain showers may
move across portions of the area tonight (15% to 50% chance). Winds
tonight will be out of the north with low temperatures in the 30s.
Temperatures along and northwest of a line from Lexington to Ord may
drop to around 33 to 31 degrees. This cooling may be hindered by
cloud cover and precipitation. There is higher confidence (around
70%) of near to below freezing temperatures Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning with most locations along and west of Highway 281
experiencing near to below freezing temperatures. The remaining
areas will be at risk for frost development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Bottom line regarding the severe threat today and tonight is
that is decreasing quite a bit. Can`t say with certainty that
there won`t still be some strong/severe storms over mainly
portions of northern Kansas tonight, but even this is looking
increasingly unlikely owing to lack of deep instability.

Expect a nice lull rest of this afternoon and into the evening
thanks to subsidence behind the earlier wave. It will remain
very dreary and chilly though with no impetus for low level
mixing to increase and help scatter out the widespread stratus.
Timing for the next round looks to be around and after midnight
and into early Monday AM. Forcing and shear/kinematics will be
there for severe storms, but latest HRRR runs keep any MUCAPE
>1000 J/kg south of the NE/KS state line...and the nose of the
more substantial (>2000 J/kg) MUCAPE closer to I-70. My gut
tells me areas from around Stockton to Hebron S and E still have
a non- zero chance for some severe storms with this round...but
probably only a hail threat. Forecast soundings from the Beloit
area show a very stable lowest 4K ft, with most/all of the CAPE
increase noted in the 4-7K ft layer. This would make
tornadogenesis and even damaging winds VERY difficult to
achieve. A strengthening LLJ will help feed the uptick in
convective coverage/strength late tonight, and appears it will
veer E of the area by sunrise (probably even by 09Z). Off and on
scattered elevated convection could persist for central and
eastern areas through the morning as the primary core of the
upper trough swings through.

Obviously will continue to monitor observations and trends...but
in my experience, such widespread coverage of such cold/stable
conditions locally and in the immediate upstream airmass is not
conducive to significant severe weather. Some hail threat from
elevated storms persists until the entire trough passes through,
but finding it increasingly difficult to message any sort of
damaging wind and tornado threat given the latest trends.

May need to add some add some sprinkles to the forecast for
tomorrow afternoon/early evening for northern areas. Steep low
level lapse rates and strong cold air advection could support
some decent cu/stratocu.

Models continue to indicate a band of light precipitation
(probably mostly rain, can`t rule out some wet snow) moving in
from the W Monday night, and continuing into the day on Tuesday.
The associated cloud cover and weak low level mixing will keep
highs cool in the 50s. This could set the stage for relatively
widespread frost and freeze conditions Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as clouds clear out and winds remain light.
Sub-freezing temperatures are currently most likely for the
Tri-Cities, north and west. However, even Beloit/Hebron could
fall into the mid 30s and support frost formation.

Additional off and on rain chances continue into Wednesday and
Thursday, but haven`t spent a lot of time looking into the
specifics. Even without the showers, it looks to remain cool for
the entire work week with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the
upper 20s/30s. At least patchy frost could develop each night
through Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud/wind
details that are impossible to pin down this far out. Just keep
that in mind in case you have planted your gardens and pots
already. Hopefully, we can get back to more seasonable 70s next
weekend. Fingers crossed...next weekend should also be dry and
just overall more pleasant than this weekend has been.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will impact the area off and
on during the overnight hours into the morning hours. Ceilings
will continue to decrease to at least IFR for most of the
overnight into the morning hours. A gradual improvement in
ceilings is expected beginning around 15z and continuing into
the afternoon hours. VFR conditions may return by mid afternoon
but ceilings are expected to decrease again by 04z Tuesday.
There is some uncertainty with visibilities during the
overnight and early morning hours. Winds will generally be
variable until around 12z when winds will become northwesterly
with an increase in winds during the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion