Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

143
FXUS63 KOAX 011114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry system arrives Sunday/Monday, bringing chances for
  snow, ice, and drizzle to areas mainly along and south of
  I-80.

- Temperatures begin trending upwards Monday afternoon through
  much of the week, keeping additional precipitation as rain.

- A another system arrives Friday into early Saturday, with rain
  expected to continue as the primary precipitation type.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Tonight through Monday Morning:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows weak troughing centered over
the eastern third of the CONUS, while zonal to northwesterly flow
pours in from the west over the western two-thirds. High pressure
continues to keep its hold over the northern half of the Great
Plains, with northeasterly winds ushering in temperatures in the 20s
across the area, that are set to further drop into the upper teens
and lower 20s at their lowest point overnight. Though current
dewpoints are near the forecast overnight low temperatures, dry air
advection will counteract any cooling to reduce any fog chances to
nearly zero.

By sunrise tomorrow, a swath of warm air advection and incoming
positive vorticity advection will kick start over the Central
and Southern High Plains and will serve as the primary driver of
snow/ice that move through southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa
during the afternoon and evening hours. We find ourselves on
the northern end of the precipitation, with lower coverage due
to the limited northern extent of the shortwave and thus have
lower expectations for any snow/ice accumulations. Overall QPF
with the latest runs of the models has increased, but a messy
precipitation type will cut down on what actually piles up at
the surface, as that WAA advection strengthens to push temps to
freezing and partially melt snow aloft. Expect sub-ten-to-one
snow ratios where you do see snow, with near freezing to just
below temperatures (that only cool overnight), making any ice
and re-freezing of melted rain/snow/ice the biggest thing to be
ready for. The locations expected to see some ice impacts
(50-70% chance) have a Winter Weather Advisory out for them,
while any further expansion depending on whether or not amounts
trend upwards.

As the main shield of rain/wintry mix shuffles to the south and east
of the area late Sunday, marginal lift will continue into the
overnight and early morning hours of Monday, resulting in areas of
freezing drizzle. Latest runs of the short-term models have
disparate coverage for the drizzle, lowering confidence in it
occurring (10-30% chance). Nonetheless, the limited coverage,
duration, and light winds should mean accumulations will be
inefficient and limit impacts to the Monday morning commute.

Monday and Beyond:

As the morning rounds out into the afternoon, expect the dreary
conditions to continue through the day with any slickness melting
thanks to high temperatures that push into the 40s in anticipation
of a shortwave trough approaching from the west. As this system
reaches the Central High Plains just to the east of the area, it
will meander southeast and help keep prolonged precipitation
forecast for the area through Wednesday. As it lingers, most of
the forecast area should see a good quarter to half in of
rainfall that would go a long way to help us with recent
dryness. Temperatures trend upwards through this stretch with
the prolonged southerly return flow ahead of the system, peaking
Thursday as a break in the clouds and light rain chances leave
us with sunny skies and a thermal ridge over the area. Heading
into the weekend, model divergence increases, but we do have
good odds of seeing more beneficial precipitation headed for us
as another trough sheds a shortwave through the area before
retrograding to southern California by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An isolated MVFR ceiling cloud deck has developed in the
vicinity of LNK and OMA at this time. These clouds are not
expected to persist. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated
across the region this morning into the afternoon ahead of a
passing weather system. East winds continue across the area as
ceilings begin to decrease, though remaining VFR. Light snow
moves into the southern portions of the area this afternoon. LNK
has the highest chance of MVFR visibility reductions and periods
of MVFR ceilings due to falling snow beginning between 18Z to
20Z and ending later this evening. OMA has a low (20%) chance
of similar aviation impacts. OFK is unlikely to encounter any
snow. Ceilings continue to decrease this evening into tonight
from south to north. MVFR ceilings initially overspread the
area late in the period, but an eventual reduction to IFR is
forecast at the end of the forecast period. Winds remain east to
southeast across the area during this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Monday for NEZ091>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

504
FXUS63 KGID 011134
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
534 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix of snow and/or sleet could impact areas
  mainly southeast of the Tri-cities this afternoon. This could
  result in slippery road conditions across the impacted areas.

- Light freezing drizzle will be possible across areas primarily
  east of Highway 281 this evening through around noon Monday.
  This could lead to a light glaze of ice across impacted
  roadways, although any accumulation remains questionable.

- Light rain showers will impact much of the local area Tuesday,
  with an isolated thunderstorm possible during the evening and
  overnight hours. Precipitation totals of 0.10" to 0.25" are
  anticipated over this period.

- While a few showers may linger into Wednesday, much of the
  area will be dry as temperatures return to above normal
  levels. Temperatures will peak Thursday afternoon (widespread
  70s), which combined with breezy south winds may result in an
  elevated fire risk.

- Additional (small) chances for some light precip return to
  the local area Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Lots of mid/high level cloud cover streamed across the local
area overnight with a bank of lower clouds creeping in from the
north and east early this morning. Temperatures so far have held
mostly in the middle 20s, and will likely struggle to climb
10-15 degrees across the area by this afternoon thanks to ample
cloud cover and continued easterly flow.

As temperatures climb to near freezing later today, expect a
weak upper level disturbance to help induce an area of light
precip as it crosses Kansas during the afternoon hours. While
models have gone back and forth on how far north this area of
light snow/sleet will extend, the latest runs once again heavily
favor southeastern portions of the area, and continued to
highlight a wintry mix of precip across this area later today.
While some slippery roads cannot be completely ruled out,
impacts are expected to remain low.

Behind this disturbance, models indicate drier air working in
aloft with a strong signal for some drizzle potential overnight
into Monday morning, which if realized, would be freezing
drizzle. This could result in a light glaze of ice across areas
mainly east of Highway 281 to start the day Monday, but
confidence is low enough to continue without a winter weather
advisory at this time given very spotty QPF in models. As
temperatures warm during the afternoon hours, any remaining
drizzle should not cause additional problems.

Additional showers, and possibly even a thunderstorm, will
impact the local area Tuesday/Tuesday night as the airmass
modifies, which should result in most locations receiving at
least a bit of liquid precip (0.10"-0.25") when all is said and
done. Temperatures will then return to above normal levels by
Wednesday afternoon, peaking on Thursday in the 70s!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
  COMMENTS:

- In terms of 7-day forecast changes since our previous (early-
  AM) issuance, they are mainly highlighted by:
1) precip chances (PoPs) have been lowered enough for most of
Wednesday-Thursday that our official forecast is now largely
dry.
2) Due in part to #1, high temps have trended up several
degrees for Wed-Thurs, but have also come up for Friday as well.


- Unfortunately, what has NOT changed is considerable/above-
  average FORECAST UNCERTAINY, both in the:
1) Shorter term: Both Sunday-Monday could feature pesky rounds
of light wintry precip...OR nothing much at all).

2) Longer term: Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show
widely varying solutions for Friday-Saturday, mainly due to big
timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper
trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50%
during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR
too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big
uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate
thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday and is dry
Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely
offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out
here!


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sat. March 7):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
Just to get this out there right off the top, it appears high
temps this afternoon are going to end up a good 5-10+ degrees
cooler than our initial early-AM forecast. Despite wall-to-wall
sunshine, the steady northeasterly breezes and weak low- level
cold air advection are clearly "winning out". As a result, highs
will only reach (at best) the upper 40s in our north...to low-
mid 50s central...to mainly upper 50s-low 60s in our south-
southwest (except warmest mid 60s mainly within
Furnas/Rooks/Osborne counties).

Speaking of these north-northeasterly breezes, if anything they
are slightly stronger than expected, with sustained speeds
commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH (localized higher). In the
big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite
imagery and short term model data confirms broad northwesterly
flow over our local Central Plains region, as we remain well
southwest of a shortwave trough passing through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
High confidence that it stays dry, with only increasing (and
mainly high level) clouds out ahead of the next low-amplitude
wave approaching from the west. There could be some lower
stratus cloud that invade mainly our northern counties between
midnight-sunrise, but this of lower probability than the more-
certain high cloud increase. At the surface, breezes will remain
steady out of the east-northeast (sustained 10-15 MPH with some
gusts up to around 20 MPH). As for low temps, the steady
breezes/increasing clouds ensure that readings will not "tank",
but due in part to today ending up cooler-than-forecast,
certainly did not want to warm up lows much. As a result, kept
them fairly close to previous forecast, with mainly low 20s
Nebraska and mid-upper 20s Kansas (along with Furnas County
area).


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (possible round of snow/sleet?):
Even at we get closer to "zero hour", Sunday`s forecast honestly
remains a legitimate "pain". For example, while the latest ECMWF
has trended all but dry, various higher-res models
(HRRR/NAMNest) and even the recent 18Z NAM are fairly suggestive
that especially the afternoon hours will feature a rapid
development of a varied mix of showery precip types over
especially the southeast quadrant of our CWA (those areas mainly
near/east of Hwy 281 and near/south of I-80). Given that
forecast soundings hover near the 0C line in the low-mid levels,
this showery precip (should it develop) could be anything from
snow, to sleet, to perhaps even a little freezing rain or "plain
rain" (especially in KS where surface temps should be warmest).
Although things certainly have the potential to still trend
worse, our latest forecast officially "downplays" things a bit,
with PoPs/Chances no higher than 20-40%, and any snow/sleet
accumulation under one-half inch. Due to this current "low end"
expectation in terms of wintry precip likelihood and
amounts/impacts, we cannot justify a proactive Winter Weather
Advisory at this time (but this bears watching). On top of
everything, and although not reflected in our official forecast
or the latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, there could even be
a few rumbles of thunder given up to a few hundred J/kg of
elevated instability/CAPE. As for daytime high temps, they were
not changed much...still calling for mainly mid 30s east to
upper 30s-low 40s west.

For around sunset and beyond, any possible MEASURABLE wintry mix
should have vacated our CWA to the east. However, especially the
latest NAM (which is often over-agressiveness with low level
saturation) suggests that especially our far eastern zones could
see a low chance for freezing drizzle. Low temps changed
little...mainly low-mid 20s.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (possibly freezing drizzle issues?):
Unfortunately, uncertainty in the likelihood/magnitude of any
wintry precip continues. However, it is starting to look more
likely that the vast majority of any precipitation that does
occur will be in the form of fin-droplet DRIZZLE or FREEZING
DRIZZLE (as opposed to steadier heavier showers). Any freezing
drizzle threat would mainly occur right away in the morning,
before surface temps warm enough to change any possible light
icing over to "plain"/non-freezing drizzle by late morning.
Getting into the very late night (post-midnight) hours, some
models (including ECMWF) suggest that an area of showers/weak
thunderstorms could flare up very near our far southeastern CWA,
but better chances currently appear to focus slightly east, and
this is not in our official forecast.

Temp-wise, highs similar to previous (low 40s east to upper 40s
west), with Mon night lows a bit warmer than the previous few
nights (mainly upper 20s-mid 30s).


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT (more, mainly rain chances):
Although confidence is high that it will mainly be of the
lighter and non-frozen variety, various chances for rain/rain
showers continue as a slow-moving shortwave trough traverses the
Central Plains. Again, while not in the official forecast most
areas, a few weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High temps
currently aimed around 50 degrees most areas.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (mostly dry):
Although rain showers could return for Thursday night (mainly
per ECWMF), the majority of these 48 hours have trended drier
with no mentionable precip chances, as we reside "in between"
systems. High temps have trended up several degrees...now mainly
mid 50s-low 60s Wed...and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY (rain chances, but high uncertainty):
Mostly copying/pasting what was already touched on above...
Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying
solutions, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our
next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at
no higher than 50% during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR
too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big
uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate
thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday (possibly even severe!)
and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but
conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to
sort out here, and it`s far too soon to "buy into" any one
scenario. Temperature-wise, also somewhat low-confidence, but
for now we are calling for highs mainly mid 50s-low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR CIGS are working their way across the region this morning
and are already impacting KGRI. Expect these low CIGS to
continue to spread west over the next few hours, impacting KEAR
by 01/13Z. While there could be some modest improvement during
the afternoon hours to MVFR levels, confidence is low as the
expanse of cloud cover on satellite is difficult to see. Either
way, CIGS will again return to IFR levels this evening...and
the terminals will then likely remain in low stratus for
multiple days. While there could be some light drizzle late
tonight, for the time being only introduced MVFR VSBYs with some
BR as the focus of any drizzle should be east of both terminals.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

If you thought it has been unusually warm so far this winter,
you are right! With February now in the books, the traditional
winter months of December-January-February (DJF) ended as the
5th warmest DJF in Hastings (33.6 degrees) and 6th warmest
DJF in Grand Island (33.2 degrees) since record keeping began
(based on average temperature).

In both cases, this was the warmest winter locally since the
winter of 1991-1992, when the average temperature was 34.6
degrees and 35.1 degrees, respectively. The winter of 1991-1992
remains the warmest winter on record at both sites.

In comparison to normal, the average temperatures at both sites
was just over 5 degrees above average for the 3 month period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi
CLIMATE...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion