Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

883
FXUS63 KOAX 251639
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1139 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this
  afternoon and evening (60-80% chance). A few strong to severe
  storms will be possible, with hail and wind the primary
  hazards.

- Thunderstorm chances return Sunday afternoon into early
  Monday. Strong to severe storms capable of all severe weather
  hazards will be possible, especially in southeast Nebraska.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected next week with on and
  off chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning reveals
a closed mid- to upper-level low over Saskatchewan, bringing
increasing southwesterly flow to the area. The area remains
bisected by a cold front this afternoon, with highs reaching the
low 70s ahead of the front. Behind the front, increasing cloud
cover and showers will keep highs confined to the mid 50s to mid
60s.

A few strong to severe storms remain possible later this afternoon
into the early evening along the front, primarily for areas along
and south of Interstate-80. In this area, dew points will pull into
the low to mid 50s with modest elevated instability (MUCAPE of 600-
1000 J/kg) and bulk shear. While model soundings reveal a lot to be
desired in terms of low-level moisture, ingredients remain
sufficient for the potential of a few elevated supercells/clusters
(PoPs 60-80%). Any stronger storms will be capable of hail (up to 1-
1.25") and strong wind gusts (up to 60 mph). Storms will push
eastward through the evening, with the severe potential dwindling
quick after 9 PM. A few spotty showers remain possible through the
overnight hours (PoPs 30%).

Sunday and Monday...

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the remainder of
the weekend as a shortwave pivots around the aforementioned
Saskatchewan low, transitioning it to a positively tilted trough
ejecting into the central Plains. At the surface, cyclogenesis is
expected to occur over eastern Colorado before tracking eastward
across Kansas and eventually northeastward across the mid-MO valley
by early Monday. An attendant surface front will lift northward
through the area on Sunday as warm air and moisture advection draws
into the area. Afternoon high temperatures will peak in the upper
60s to low 70s, with dewpoints increasing to the low 60s.

Thunderstorm chances appear to move through the area in two separate
rounds. The initial round is expected Sunday afternoon into the
early evening hours as mid-level height falls overspread the
modestly unstable airmass. Storm mode with this initial round appears
to be multicell clusters with am embedded supercell or two
possible, though CAM guidance continues to show discrepancies
in the amount of storm coverage with this initial round. Severe
weather potential with this round will remain primarily a hail
and wind threat under any stronger updrafts. While model
hodographs do bring some favorable low- level curvature, storms
will likely remain elevated during this period, somewhat
limiting tornado potential.

The second round of thunderstorms comes late Sunday evening into the
overnight period as the aforementioned surface low pulls into
northeast KS/southeast NE, dragging the warm sector up into the
area. Model soundings show improvement in low-level moisture in this
region along with hodographs favorable for supercell and potentially
even a tornado a two within the warm sector as it pulls across far
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. For areas north of the warm
front, generally north of I-80, elevated supercells capable of wind
and hail remain the primary hazards. Pops remain in the 90-100%
overnight across the entire forecast area.

Another concern to monitor will be the potential for heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, particularly in far southeast NE and southwest
IA where training storms are favorable through the overnight period.
PWAT values are expected to reach 1.20-1.50 inches, above the 90th
percentile of sounding climatology for late April. Precipitation
totals through the weekend will be variable across the area
depending on where the heaviest showers develop. Most areas are
expected to see 0.75-1.25", with heavier pockets (2-3"+) expected.

Precipitation will gradually clear from west to east through late
Monday morning and afternoon, with cloud cover slow to clear behind
the departing precipitation shield. High temperatures are expected
to peak in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Gusty winds will move in Monday
afternoon on the back side of the departing system, with
northwesterly gusts expected in the 20-30 mph range.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The aforementioned Canadian trough is expected to pull eastward
through the remainder of the work week, leaving us generally in
zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwave
disturbances pivoting around the trough will bring periodic
precipitation chance through the week (PoPs 20-40%) and keep high
temperatures in the 60s, near seasonal norms.  Overnight lows are
expected in the upper 30s to low 40s. No day currently stands out
for severe weather potential through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon, with
patchy MVFR conditions present towards east-central Nebraska
where rain showers are moving in. Showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms will push eastward into the terminals through the
afternoon and early evening. Confidence is high (75% chance)
that each terminal will see precipitation this afternoon and
early evening, with some refinements likely needed on the exact
timing. Patchy MVFR conditions will be possible under any
heavier showers.

Precipitation chances dwindle after 26/00-02Z, with a
few spotty showers possible overnight (30% chance). MVFR to IFR
ceilings will push into KOFK after 26/00Z, confidence is low
that these conditions will reach KLNK or KOMA. Winds will remain
variable through the period, beginning out of the southeast before
transitioning to northeasterly behind a front and eventually
back to southeasterly. Winds will generally remain under 12 kts,
with a few gusts in the 12-18 kt range this afternoon.
Additionally precipitation chances move in just after the TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

536
FXUS63 KGID 252149
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
449 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms through this evening, mainly
  for areas south and east of Hastings. Large hail and locally
  damaging wind gusts are the main threats.

- After a lull in storms tonight, additional rounds of scattered
  to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday
  into Sunday night, and maybe even early Monday morning.

- Significant severe weather remains a possiblity Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night, but considerable uncertainty
  regarding specific timing, coverage, and magnitude of severe
  threats remain. Kansas more favored for severe than Nebraska.

- The forecast for next week will be dominated by cool
  temperatures and frequent frost and freeze concerns due to
  chilly lows in the 30s (at least) each night/early morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A sharp frontal zone is currently bisecting the area from SW to
NE...with temperatures on the NW side actually falling into the
40s...whereas areas that remain ahead of the front have warmed
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The frontal zone is serving as
a focus for strong the severe thunderstorms this afternoon, and
expect this threat to continue for much of the evening, mainly
for areas E and S of Hastings. Instability falls off rather
quickly N of Hwy 6 E of Hastings, so while a strong storm with
small to maybe marginally severe hail (0.5-1." in diameter)
can`t be ruled out, and primary severe threat will be S of Hwy 6
and near/E of Hwy 281 where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 9PM this evening. These areas have destabilized
considerably more in a pocket of recent clearing, as evident by
HJH shooting up to 75F degrees. This is supporting around
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which combined with effective deep
layer shear of 40-50kt, is more than enough CAPE/shear for
supercells. Mid level lapse rates are steep, but not crazy
steep, so think quarter to perhaps golf ball hail is the main
threat. Can`t rule out some localized damaging wind with any
RFDs as well as a brief tornado given presence of a boundary and
ample 0-3km CAPE. Expect most of the organized convection to
clear the forecast area to the E/SE by around 8-9PM, leaving
damp & dreary conditions through the overnight. Will need to
watch for some dense fog potential late overnight into Sunday
morning as winds back more towards the E (upslope) amidst
already high boundary layer moisture left over by today`s rain.

Focus then turns to our next round of covection and severe
weather potential on Sunday. Unfortunately, models still remain
quite varied in their solutions on how the day ultimately pan`s
out, specifically with regards to the coverage, intensity, and
timing of initially elevated convection late morning into early
afternoon...and how that impacts destabilization potential later
on in the day. Still too much uncertainty to put too much stock
into one single model, but general trends on the last two runs
of the HREF suggest a consensus may be forming. It roughly
supports the last couple runs of the HRRR in that there will be
increasing elevated convection that develops from SW Nebraska
into north central KS during the morning hours, that then shifts
NE across the area during the bulk of the daytime hours. This
round could have a non-zero severe potential with it
particularly on the S/SE flank and as it begins to interact with
increasing instability. This would be roughly the same areas
experiencing severe weather today, with large hail again the
primary threat. The exact timing of this first round will be
absolutely critical to fine tuning the severe threat both during
the day, and with any subsequent rounds during the evening
and/or overnight.

Speaking of which...appears a second round may develop W/SW of
the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening,
then quickly move E/NE during the mid-late evening and
overnight. This is the round the some of the hi-res guidance
really pegs as the potential high-end severe threat. Now...will
this actually be for our area (mainly KS zones), or will the
main threat remain just SW/S of the area due to stabilizing
effects from the first round? That`s the big question at this
point. Conceptually speaking and from personal experience these
setup`s usual favor more S than N than what one thinks 24+ hours
out...but if the morning activity isn`t very widespread or
intense, the effective warm front could trend further N.
Regardless of where the boundary sets up, storms along it will
be perfectly situated in a volitle combination of instability
and shear, and the strongest forcing/height falls may lag just
enough to preclude more widespead coverage - thus leading to
better potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Very
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will be
possible with any supercells in this area between 21Z-03Z. After
03Z, would expect some upscale growth into lines and/or clusters
as forcing increases along with the low level jet. As such, a
large hail and damaging wind threat (maybe a brief tornado)
could continue well into the overnight...again favoring areas
along/S of the state line the most.

The upper low will pivot E/NE across the NE/SD border area on
Monday and continue a shower/weak thunderstorm threat throughout
the daytime, esp. for areas N/NE of the Tri-Cities. Monday will
not really be any more pleasant than the weekend given
increasingly strong NW winds and chilly highs in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The main story for the rest of the week will be chilly
temperatures and nearly nightly frost/freeze concerns for a good
chunk of the forecast area. Obviously, NW zones will be at most
risk for actual freezing temperatures, but frosty conditions
could easily spread in the the Tri-Cities, esp. Wed & Fri AMs

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Scattered thundershowers this afternoon,
then widespread IFR to perhaps LIFR conditions this evening
through Sunday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually work W to E
across the terminals over the next several hours. Most of the
heavier cores are just E of EAR, and can`t rule out some small
hail for GRI through ~21-22Z. Organized showers should shift E
by this evening, but it will remain damp/dreary under IFR CIGs
and at least MVFR VSBYs all night. Will likely deteriorate to
LIFR CIGs after midnight, and VSBYs could fall to IFR, but this
is more uncertain. The next chance for showers and embedded
t-storms looks to arrive from the W late Sun AM.

Winds will mainly be NE to N through the period, averaging
10-15kt sustained, with some occasional gusts around 20kt.
Confidence: Wind & CIGs - High, Timing of rain & VSBY - Med.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion