68°F
Updated:
4/5/2026
6:02:13pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
467 FXUS63 KOAX 051832 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 132 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A rain-snow mix is possible (30-50% PoPs) late tonight into Monday morning across portions of northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa with little to no accumulation expected. - Rain is expected to mix with and then change over to all snow across portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some 1-3" accumulations appear possible with a 40-60% chance of slippery roads during the Tuesday morning commute. - An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and storm chances from Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Tonight through Tuesday: A short-wave trough over northern MN and northwest Ontario this afternoon will continue southeast into the upper Great Lakes with an associated surface cold front moving through the area tonight. Strengthening frontogenesis within the post-frontal environment will support a narrow band of light precipitation late tonight into Monday across portions of southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA. There is some model variability in exactly where the band will setup with the highest PoPs of 30-50% across our northern counties. Forecast soundings valid around sunrise Monday morning indicate near-ground temperature profiles supportive of a rain- snow mix with some question as to whether a complete change over to light snow will occur. Either way, deep-layer saturation is expected to be somewhat transient with little to no snow accumulation expected. Periods of light rain remain possible on Monday afternoon, especially in far eastern NE and southwest IA, with highs in the 40s to low/mid 50s. On Monday night into Tuesday morning, strengthening low/mid- level frontogenesis will contribute to the organization of a more intense precipitation band from portions of eastern NE into northern MO (50-70% PoPs). Precipitation will likely start out as rain before transitioning to a rain-snow mix and then to all snow. Forecast soundings indicate a relatively long duration of deep-layer saturation with upward vertical motion extending into the dendritic-growth zone. In addition, model cross sections suggest the presence of weak convective instability within the 700-500-mb layer, which would enhance precipitation rates. The various ensemble systems have trended toward greater snowfall potential with generally a 60-80% chance of an inch or more accumulations, and a 10-30% chance of three-inch or more accumulations. The exact location of the snow band remains uncertain; however, area residents should be prepared for a few slippery roads during the Tuesday morning commute (40-60% chance). Continued warm advection and the glancing influence of a weak, mid- level disturbance will maintain a chance of rain (30-50% PoPs) Tuesday afternoon, especially along and to the north of a warm front lifting north into the area. High temperatures will range from mid 40s in our northern counties to upper 50s to low 60s in the southwest part of our area, to the south of the warm front. Tuesday night through Saturday: The global models have trended south in the track of a significant mid-level trough, which is forecast to move along the U.S./Canadian border in the Tuesday night-Wednesday night timeframe. An associated surface low is expected to move east along the SD/NE border Tuesday night with a trailing cold front moving through the mid-MO Valley on Wednesday. Steepening lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints increasing through the 40s to around 50 ahead of front will contribute to weak instability and potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highest PoPs of 40-70% are indicated Wednesday night. A low-level jet is forecast to persist across the pre-frontal warm sector Wednesday, resulting in strong southwest winds with gusts up to 35 mph. Temperatures will be warmer than previous days with highs in the 60s to low 70s. While winds will be weaker behind the front, relative humidity is forecast to fall into the 25-30% range in northeast NE Wednesday afternoon, leading to very high fire danger. The surface front is forecast to stall across KS and MO on Thursday and Friday beneath a quasi-zonal, mid-level flow regime. Persistent warm advection to the north of the boundary in conjunction with weak disturbances passing near and to the north of the area will support continued shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, the highest of which will be across southeast NE and southwest IA. Daytime temperatures will be a bit cooler (compared to Wednesday) with readings in the 50s and 60s. By Saturday, there is some model signal that the front may move north back into the area, leading to continued shower and thunderstorm chances as well as warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Various machine-learning guidance shows an increasing chance of at least isolated severe-weather potential from Friday into the weekend, so that is something we will be keeping an eye on. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with increasing mid/high-level cloudiness tonight into Monday morning. Northwest winds of 11-13 kt with gusts of 18-22 kt this afternoon diminish by 06/00z. The models indicate the development of a light precipitation band late tonight into Monday morning with the best potential for that occurrence being to the north of the terminal locations. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
178 FXUS63 KGID 051917 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 217 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow may fall across portions of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. - Various rain chances are present Monday through Friday night. The highest chances (60% to near 80%) are Friday through Saturday night. - Thunderstorms are possible beginning Wednesday afternoon (20%-30% chance). - Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with a warmup through Wednesday then cooler temperatures through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A broad upper trough is over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country with an upper ridge centered over Arizona and New Mexico. South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are on the backside of the upper trough with winds mostly out of the west to northwest. High temperatures today will be in the 60s and low 70s with sunny to mostly sunny skies. Winds will become easterly to northeasterly tonight as a surface high begins to move over much of the area. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 30s. A cold front will affect much of the forecast area on Monday with high temperatures expected to range from the 40s across the north to the 70s in the south. Winds will remain out of the east Monday night as atmospheric lift increases across the area. A mix of rain and snow is possible (15% to 50% chance) Monday night. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the 20s and 30s. There is some uncertainty Tuesday with high temperatures due to uncertainty with how far north a warm front will move. High temperatures may range from the 70s in the far southwest to the 40s in the far north. Light rain will also be possible on Tuesday (up to 50% chance) mainly along and north of the front. Winds will increase out of the south as the warm front lifts northward Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 30s and 40s with 50s possible across the far south. An upper trough will move over the northern and central Plains on Wednesday with a cold front beginning to move into the area. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday. Showers and storms may develop (20% to 45% chance) Wednesday afternoon along the front with chances increasing to 45% to 65% Wednesday night. Cooler air is expected to move into the area on Thursday with some uncertainty remaining on high temperatures. This cooler air will remain in place on Friday. A warm up is expected on Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s as winds increase out of the south. Various precipitation chances continue Thursday through Saturday night with the highest chances (60% to near 80%) Friday through Saturday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will transition from the west to the north northwest by 00z then to the east by 03z. Winds will increase out of the east by 15z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt
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