Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

930
FXUS63 KOAX 170533
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, with morning southerly
  winds shifting to northwesterly as a cold front pushes
  through. Winds gusts may reach 40-50 mph, with a wind advisory
  in place for portions of northeast Nebraska.

- Very high fire danger will exist across northeast Nebraska on
  Wednesday as warm, dry and windy conditions prevail.

- Widespread precipitation chances return on Saturday, with a
  few strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A developing trough will dig into the northern Plains towards
the Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday. Ahead of this
feature, strong cyclogenesis is taking shape over the Dakotas
before shifting southeast into Nebraska. Ahead of this, a strong
low-level jet brings gusty southerly winds to the area with the
strongest gusts over southeast Nebraska. A wind advisory is in
effect through the morning hours for this region. On the nose of
the low-level jet, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.
The current expectation is that most of the showers and
thunderstorms will remain focused over South Dakota and west-
central Iowa. That said, a glancing shower or thunderstorm can`t
be ruled out for our areas along and east of the Missouri River.
Temperatures remain mild through the morning with the strong
southerly winds keeping temperatures in the 60s to near 70.

A potent mid-level jet streak will begin to rapidly strengthen
and push the low pressure off to the east during the morning
hours. This will act to quickly push a strong cold front through
the region. Hot, dry, and windy conditions fill in behind the
cold front by Wednesday afternoon. Widespread gusty northwest
winds are anticipated with 40-50 mph gusts likely. The
strongest winds should be focused over northeast Nebraska where
a wind advisory is in effect through the afternoon. On top of
this, very low relative humidity in the 20-25% range overspreads
much of eastern Nebraska. While much of the area is green, a few
drier areas remain over portions of northeast Nebraska closest
to the South Dakota border. Very high fire danger is anticipated
as a result, but borderline fuel conditions preclude a Red Flag
Warning at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures well into
the 80s to near 90 despite the front.

Thankfully, this system remains progressive with cooler
temperatures and lighter winds beginning to move in by Wednesday
night. Light winds, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the
70s to near 80 will be a welcomed return to the area on Thursday.
Enjoy this while you can as more active weather remains on the
horizon beyond this point. As the overall pattern transitions
towards a more progressive orientation, rain chances remain in
the forecast. Currently, a trough is expected to dig into the
southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of this, warmer temperatures
and thunderstorms are anticipated. Friday may see more limited
coverage, but widespread rainfall is forecast for Saturday.
Currently, at least some threat of severe weather and flash
flooding is anticipated based on latest forecast model guidance.
Beyond Saturday, continued active weather is expected with rain
chances at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast
period. LLWS kicks in this morning, persisting through sunrise.
A cold front moves through the region today, bringing winds
shifting to the northwest with gusts to 35-40kts.

KOFK: A few light showers may move into the vicinity of the
terminal through 09Z. Confidence in coverage is low, so this was
omitted from prevailing conditions.

KOMA: Showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible between
09Z and 11Z as a system moves across northeastern Nebraska and
northwestern Iowa.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ068-
     089>093.
IA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ090-
     091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

862
FXUS63 KGID 170540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The two "biggest stories" of the next week are: 1) near-
  critical fire weather conditions and fairly strong winds on
  Wednesday by June standards (see separate Fire Weather
  section below for details)...2) A gradually-increasing concern
  for potential severe thunderstorms (and maybe localized
  flooding) especially Saturday afternoon-overnight.

- Aside from the above concerns, the MAJORITY of the next week
  appears fairly quiet/uneventful, with the various/intermittent
  rain and thunderstorm chances especially Sunday night-Tuesday
  being of lower confidence than the Friday night-Sunday
  chances.

- Temperature-wise: certainly nothing too noteworthy by mid-late
  June standards, with highs on most days in the 70s/80s and
  lows on most nights in the 50s/60s. The main round of hotter
  90s will be right away Wednesday, with counties mainly
  along/south of the NE-KS border forecast to reach low-mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly major changes to speak of, as the items listed in Key
  Messages above continue to ring true.

- Officially, our forecast remains completely void of any
  mentionable rain chances (meaning chances/PoPs less than 15%)
  through Friday afternoon. That being said, we cannot rule out
  later forecast possibly introducing some chances for a few
  light showers/sprinkles especially late Wed night-Thurs AM.

- In the very minor forecast change department, high temps for
  Saturday- Monday have nudged down a few degrees from previous.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. June 23):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 230 PM:
By most folks` standards, today has simply been a seasonably-
pleasant mid-June day. Under generally partly cloudy skies (a
fair amount of passing high level cirrus), high temps are on
track to top out between 82-90 degrees in most places...overall-
coolest in our eastern NE counties and overall-warmest in our
extreme southwestern counties (Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) which are
most favored to reach/slightly exceed 90. Humidity levels are
also fairly low, owing to dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Winds
have thus far today been a minimal concern, with sustained
speeds in most places near-to- below 10 MPH. However, speeds
through the rest of the afternoon will gradually pick up a bit
and become more established from the south, with especially our
northern/western counties seeing gusts 20+ MPH by evening.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central
Plains region resides under northwesterly flow, directed between
a potent shortwave trough rotating through the Great
Lakes/eastern Midwest...and an expansive ridge/high centered
well off the southern CA coast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
A dry forecast continues, with any stronger/severe storms
focusing off to our south (southern KS) and/or east (mainly
northern/eastern IA). A few sprinkles/light showers could TRY
clipping the extreme northern/northeast fringes of our CWA late
tonight along the far southern edges of lift associated with a
shortwave trough diving out of the Dakotas toward IA, but this
meager precip should stay slightly to our north/northeast. The
main story overnight will be increasing southerly and eventually
southwesterly winds...in response to a surface low pressure
system deepening to around 990 millibars as it tracks from the
WY/NE border area early this evening...to east-central/southeast
NE by sunrise. In response, our winds tonight will ramp up to
sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. The
increasing winds and low-level warm air advection makes low
temps a little tricky, as many places will probably bottom out
pre-midnight before steadying or even rising a few degrees later
in the night. No matter what, the majority of our CWA will see
lows hold up 10+ degrees warmer than last night...with lows
aimed from mid-upper 60s in most places...to low 70s in our
south (especially KS).


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Although not as hot as it once looked, this will still be the
warmest day of the next week, and quite likely also the windiest.
Aloft, the aforementioned upper wave will track east- southeast
into the Midwest (likely prompting widespread severe storms
especially over IL/IN), while back here out west behind that
system we`ll remain dry under mostly sunny skies. High temps
were changed very little...ranging from mid-upper 80s in most of
our Nebraska counties...to low-mid 90s counties mainly
along/south of the KS border. As surface low pressure departs
east, a seasonably-strong cold front (especially in terms of
winds...less so temps) will cross our CWA during the morning,
with most of the day featuring sustained northwesterly speeds
20-30 MPH/gusts 30-45 MPH. The overall-strongest speeds (gusts
40-45 MPH) will target counties mainly north of I-80, with the
overall "lightest" winds in our KS counties (see separate Fire
Weather Section below for more on near-critical fire weather
concerns).

Wednesday evening-overnight, winds will steadily decrease in the
evening with sustained speeds at/under 10 MPH by around 11
PM, but remaining northerly through the night. We continue with
a dry forecast, but various models are increasingly suggestive
that we might need to consider adding some low chances for light
showers and/or sprinkles post-midnight to especially our
northern counties due to some lift from upper jet dynamics and
mid-level frontogenesis. Temp-wise, lows about 10 degrees cooler
than tonight...ranging from mid 50s north to low 60s south.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Our dry forecast continues for now, but the same possible chance
for light showers/sprinkles mentioned for late Wed night could
linger through much of Thursday AM especially in our eastern
counties. Even so, the vast majority of these 36 hours will
surely be dry as we remain under benign northwesterly flow
aloft. Breezes Thursday will remain out of the north-northwest
but not nearly as strong as Wednesday. High temps will be
roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday (mainly upper 70s-low
80s). On Friday, winds flip back around to southerly and become
a bit breezy...aiding another jump in high temps (at least 5-8
degrees warmer than Wed) with highs mainly mid-upper 80s.


- FRIDAY EVENING-SUNDAY (the weekend):
Not going to attempt to break down this time frame in super-
great detail, but as previously covered there is gradually
increasing concern for a severe thunderstorm/localized flooding
threat especially for Saturday afternoon-night. SPC introduced
a Day 5 "Slight Risk equivalent" to our entire CWA on this
morning`s outlook...which is also supported by CSU machine-
learning probs.

Any convection Friday night-Sat AM could perhaps
be strong to marginally- severe as low-level moisture and
instability starts to return northward, but it will probably be
fairly scattered in coverage. However, more widespread
convection is probable Saturday afternoon-overnight as a low-
amplitude upper wave enters the Plains from the west,
accompanied by an eastward-tracking surface low and likely a
strong southerly low-level jet. This is still beyond the scope
of any higher-res models to be sure, but latest ECMWF/GFS
clearly support a decent combo of at least 1500-2500 J/kg of
CAPE (instability) and at least 30-40KT of deep layer wind shear
(supportive of supercells at least initially). Dewpoints well
into the 60s convey heavy rain/flooding potential as well.
Whatever happens Saturday night (in terms of how widespread
storms are) will probably have at least some bearing on Sunday,
as although the ECMWF (more so than the GFS) keeps some healthy
instability around, both models usher a weak cold front through
our CWA...which should in theory shunt any higher- end severe
storm chances to our south. Again though, it`s just too early
for many details at this still Day 4-5 range...and there is
still time for severe storm concerns to ramp up more OR perhaps
decrease a bit.

Temperature-wise, highs trended down very slightly from
previous, but are aimed mostly mid-upper 80s Saturday...upper
70s-mid 80s Sunday.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
We remain under west-northwesterly flow aloft, with passing weak
disturbances bringing continued intermittent/mainly isolated-
to-scattered rain and thunderstorm chances. However, instability
currently appears markedly lower than the weekend and thus more
muted severe potential. High temps currently aimed mainly upper
70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions throughout this forecast period. Low-level
wind shear is expected tonight as strong southerly winds reside
under a developing southerly low-level jet around 1000ft until
around 11/12Z for KEAR/KGRI respectively. Surface winds will
rotate clockwise with the passage of a surface cold front,
becoming more northerly by 13/14Z. Wind gusts around 30 kts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon behind this cold front.
Winds will finally weaken around sunset, as a midlevel cloud
layer moves in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Regarding WEDNESDAY near-critical fire weather conditions:
First of all and most importantly, we have deemed
grasses/vegetation across our entire CWA to be "green enough"
(in some far western areas JUST green enough) to NOT SUPPORT
truly widespread wildfire growth/spread. As a result, we have
NO Fire Weather Watches/Warnings posted for Wednesday.

That being said, the meteorological combination of moderately-
strong northwest winds and seasonably-low relative humidity (RH)
does make the Wednesday wildfire threat higher-than-average by
mid-June standards, and we are officially calling it near-
critical for our area. More specifically, nearly our entire CWA
will see the combination of the following for several hours from
mid-late morning through early evening:
- 1) Northwest winds gusting at least 30-45 MPH (overall-
  strongest counties north of I-80)
- 2) Relative humidity as low as 15-25% (overall-lowest in our
  KS counties along with far western Nebraska counties such as
  Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Scott
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion