Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

353
FXUS63 KOAX 161058
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in very high fire
  danger on Thursday, particularly in northeast Nebraska.

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday,
  especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. All
  severe weather hazards will be possible.

- Colder air arrives Friday night into this weekend. Saturday
  and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing
  for many locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The upper-level trough that resulted in severe weather across
the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon is departing our region to
the east. In its wake, surface high pressure is building into
the region. As a result, quiet weather conditions consisting of
light winds and clear skies have overspread the area. Excellent
radiation cooling allows temperatures to fall into the 40s for
a cool start to Thursday. As we go through the day on Thursday,
our next weather system will approach the northern Rockies. This
supports the return of lee troughing across the Great Plains.
In response, increasing southerly to southwesterly winds
overspread the region. Temperatures quickly warm into the 80s by
afternoon as relative humidities crater into the teens and 20s
across much of the region. Due to the warm, dry, and windy
conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of
northeast Nebraska through the afternoon into the early evening.

By Friday, the aforementioned weather system will already be
moving into the area. A fast moving cold front is forecast to be
entering northeast Nebraska by Friday morning. This front may
begin to slow with daytime heating, but the latest high-
resolution guidance has the cold front reaching far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa by the afternoon. With the timing of
the front being a bit faster and potentially uncertain, the
temperature forecast is also uncertain. Ahead of the front will
remain warm, similar to Thursday, while much cooler air moves in
behind the front. With the fast moving front, strong forcing for
ascent should produce showers and thunderstorms. At this time,
there is a risk severe thunderstorms, especially for southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon. With the trend
towards a faster front, this threat may be decreasing as a
result. Showers may linger behind the front into the evening and
overnight hours on Friday. If precipitation can hang around
into Saturday morning, a few snowflakes may mix in as well.
Thankfully, no impacts are expected with this.

As eluded to above, much colder weather begins the weekend.
Portions of northeast Nebraska may see a Spring freeze Saturday
morning. Elsewhere, sees middle to upper 30s during the morning
hours. Temperatures only warm into the 50s Saturday afternoon
with this colder airmass. Temperatures plummet further by Sunday
morning with a widespread freeze likely. This freeze is before
our typical last Spring freeze date, but recent green-up of
vegetation may result in vegetation damage despite this.
Temperatures quickly rebound by Sunday afternoon as upper-level
ridging builds in. Temperatures climb back into the 70s to near
80 heading into next week. All is quiet weather-wise, until the
middle of next week, when our next potential weather maker is
forecast to breakdown the ridge. Thunderstorms chances are
likely to return with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with a few high
clouds. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly with gusts of
20-25 kts starting around 17-18Z. Could see some low level wind
shear late in the period at OMA and LNK with 50 kt southwest
winds at 2000 ft AGL. A wind shift to westerly and then
northwesterly looks to arrive at OFK very late in the period and
will work through the rest of the area after 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

124
FXUS63 KGID 161153
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns again take center stage today, with our
  entire forecast area (CWA) under a Red Flag Warning this
  afternoon-evening due to a combination of very low relative
  humidity and southerly winds gusting up to 30-35 MPH.
  Additional rounds of potentially widespread critical
  conditions look to materialize Saturday and possibly Monday
  (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- A strong cold front slices southward into our CWA late tonight
  into Friday morning, with wind gusts at least 40-45 MPH at
  times (especially during and for the first few hours behind
  the initial frontal passage).

- Friday is looking ever-more like the least-pleasant day of
  the next week, with moderately-strong north winds and
  temperatures that keep trending cooler with high temps now
  only expected into the 50s across most of our CWA, but still
  60s to maybe near-70 in our south-southeast.

- Although SPC`s initial Day 2 severe storm outlook technically
  still clips our EXTREME southeastern CWA with the edges of a
  Marginal Risk for late Friday afternoon-evening, an almost
  overwhelming consensus of various models strongly argues that
  any such threat should focus at least 30-50 miles southeast
  of our CWA altogether. As a result, here at the local level we
  have removed any thunderstorm chances from our far southeast
  counties, and also removed a severe possibility from our
  forecast, Hazardous Weather Outlook etc.

- Although in most years this would be considered a bit early
  for spring Frost/Freeze "headlines", with growing degree days
  (GDD) metrics putting us roughly THREE WEEKS "ahead of
  schedule" on plant growth this spring...we have now "green
  lighted" issuance of seasonal Frost/Freeze headlines starting
  with this weekend. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the
  majority of our CWA for late Fri night-early Sat AM, with
  additional headlines probably eventually needed for late Sat
  night-Sun AM too.

- Precipitation-wise next 7 days: While a rogue sprinkle or
  light shower cannot be totally ruled out Fri-Fri night, our
  official forecast is (unfortunately) dry Saturday-Tuesday,
  with still-rather-uncertain rain/thunderstorm chances then
  returning perhaps as early as Wednesday afternoon.

- Temperature-wise next 7 days: Solidly above normal highs in
  the 80s prevail today and again Mon-Wed. In between, Fri-Sat
  are by far the coolest days (highs 50s/60s), with Sunday then
  a "transition day" with highs mainly 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Although we might still be playing "catch up" a bit with
  latest model trends, high temps for Friday were lowered a
  notable 4-7 degrees from previous forecast, as confidence
  grows that the majority of our CWA will not exceed the 50s
  behind a strong cold front.

- For any longer -term forecast related notes beyond Friday
  night please refer to the Key Messages outlined above, and for
  any specific fire weather details please refer to the separate
  section at the bottom of this product.

-- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (through early
 Sat AM):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
Briefly looking back at yesterday, as was fully outlined as a
possibility...we indeed dealt with a few/spotty severe storms
that impacted mainly the northeast 1/4th of our CWA during the
morning into early afternoon (a few hail reports up to ping pong
ball size). Thereafter, a smattering of weaker (but occasionally
strong) storms affected various areas before all convection
vacated our far eastern counties around 8 PM.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that the associated
upper level low that brought yesterday`s more active weather has
since departed well-eastward into the IA/IL/WI border area,
putting our local area under temporary, weak ridging. Meanwhile
at the surface, low pressure is shifting into the western
Dakotas, but so far our pressure gradient locally is still
rather weak. As a result, breezes over our CWA are rather
light...mainly under 10 MPH mainly out of the southwest, but
with some stations reporting near-calm. Given pristinely clear
skies and the lighter winds, overnight low temps are on track to
bottom out somewhere in the 40s most areas, although some spots
have nudged back up into the low 50s, while others have tumbled
into at least the upper 30s.


- TODAY-THIS EVENING (pre-midnight):
As our next large-scale upper trough gradually approaches from
the Northern Rockies, low pressure will intensify at the surface
to our west and north, thus tightening up the pressure gradient
and bringing strengthening southerly winds. This morning,
breezes will remain lighter and more west-southwesterly.
However, by mid- late afternoon steady southerly breezes
sustained 15-25 MPH/gusting up to 30-35 MPH will be established.
Under plentiful sunshine, temps will get a decent boost from
yesterday...and made little change to previous forecast with
highs aimed 84-87 most areas.

This evening, winds will remain breezy but turn southeasterly
ahead of a sharp, approaching cold front.


- LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY AM:
Around 3-4 AM, the aforementioned sharp cold front will begin to
steadily slice southward into our CWA, making it at least
halfway through by sunrise Friday, then making it through the
remainder of our area by mid-late morning. As the front passes,
most places will likely see up to a few hours of wind gusts up
around 40-45 MPH (fortunately shy of High Wind criteria).
Official overnight low temps (through sunrise) are a bit tricky
and will depend on EXACT frontal timing, but are currently aimed
from low 40s far northwest to upper 50s far southeast.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (through around midnight):
Aloft, the large-scale trough arrives into the Central Plains,
while at the surface the cold front just keeps charging
southward. Precipitation-wise, while suppose a very spotty
sprinkle/light shower cannot be totally ruled out within our CWA
before sunset, several models are now almost insistent that the
cold front will safely clear even our southeastern-most CWA
before any severe thunderstorms have a chance to erupt by mid-
late afternoon into the evening. Even post-frontal elevated
instability no longer appears to be much of a concern, so we
have all put closed the book on a severe storm risk in our CWA.

What WILL occur is a seasonably-cool day, with sustained winds
commonly 20-30 MPH/gusts 35-40 MPH. Leaning on higher-res model
data, high temps were lowered a good 4-7 degrees from our
previous forecast, ranging from low 50s northwest (barely 50 for
Ord/Gothenburg areas), mid-upper 50s central (including Tri
Cities), and any 60s to MAYBE near 70 confined to our southeast
1/4th or so.

During the evening, models hint that some spotty/chilly rain
showers could try getting into mainly our southern/southwestern
CWA, but this looks quite minor if it even happens, and any
precip should end before it would get cold enough to turn to a
dusting of snow.

- FRIDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SAT AM:
As skies gradually clear and winds gradually diminish (sustained
speeds down to 10 MPH or less within a few hours before sunrise,
the stage will be set for a seasonably-cold Saturday morning.
Low temps are aimed from mainly mid-upper 40s northwest, to low-
mid 30s southeast, bringing freeze concerns into play (and
possibly some frost development, especially far west). To better
coordinate with neighboring offices to our west that already
issued Freeze Watches yesterday, we went ahead and joined in
with a Freeze Watch for the vast majority of our CWA, except for
a handful of far eastern/southeast counties that are currently
expected to remain just above freezing or barely reach the
freezing mark for a very short time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

It`s been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple
different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being
driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath
a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE
across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in
the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the
mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in
instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don`t
expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in
only the strongest of cores. Models haven`t really been handling
this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but
conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with
loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks
quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S.

Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is
discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy
one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees
for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry
ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach
at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F.

Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track
with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from
NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds
behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps
locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at
least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very
little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not
anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time.

Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized
convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model
consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or
well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression
Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by.
Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme
SE zones, but this could be generous.

Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold
front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery
and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions
and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday
night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both
nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn`t
overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze
isn`t until last week of April or first week of May for all but
our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early
spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3
weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of
mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention
to the cold temperatures.

The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer
weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United
States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some
mid week rain. We`ll have to see as it`s still a long ways off.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Exremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and
precipitation-free conditions throughout the period, with clear
skies giving way to plentiful high level cirrus overnight. That
leaves wind as the main issue, with various changes in
direction/speed necessitating several FM groups, including a
fairly strong cold frontal passage at the EXTREME end of this
valid period (11-12Z).

Wind details:
Starting off this morning breezes will prevail southwesterly
around 10KT. As the morning wears on, speeds will gradually
increase as direction trends more southerly, with speeds through
the afternoon commonly sustained around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT. This
evening and into much of the overnight, speeds will remain
elevated (gusts still up around 25KT) but direction will turn
more south-southeasterly. Finally, although confidence in
"exact" timing could be off slightly, the very end of the period
will bring a brief shift to west-southwesterly winds before a
strong cold front comes slamming through. This initial frontal
surge could probably occur anywhere from 10-12Z based on latest
higher-res models, but have aimed for 11Z for now, with north-
northwest winds sustained around 20KT/gusting 30-35KT.

One one final wind-related note, especially the final 6-8 hours
of the period could feature at least some degree of low level
wind shear (LLWS) as south-southwesterly winds accelerate within
the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL. However, given this is still well
beyond the first 12 hours of this valid period, and given there
is still uncertainty whether shear magnitude will solidly
reach/exceed the typical 30+KT TAF-inclusion criteria, will
defer to later TAFs to further assess/possibly introduce.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2026

Though spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred over the past
few days across pockets (far from all) of our forecast area, it
remains overall-dry and spring-green-up has yet to fully take
hold in most areas. As a result, fire weather concerns remain in
place on various upcoming days. The following focuses on fire
weather details through these next five days (Thursday-Monday).


- THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
Although winds will not be overly-strong this afternoon-evening,
the combination of southerly speeds sustained 15-25 MPH and
gusting as high as 30-35 MPH, in combination with afternoon
relative humidity (RH) bottoming out 10-16 percent across nearly
our entire forecast area (in the presence of another round of
very warm temperatures with highs into at least the mid 80s),
all adds up to another solidly-critical fire weather setup. As a
result, our entire forecast area remains under a Red Flag
Warning from Noon-Midnight. While the worst conditions will
certainly occur this afternoon into early this evening, and RH
will rise/recover fairly steadily after sunset especially in
counties along/east of Highway 281, RH recovery will be
noticeably slower the farther west one goes. In fact, especially
our far western counties (namely Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) are not
expected to see RH get back above 20% until at least 10-11 PM.
As a result, the Warning extends later into the night than
"usual", but again this is mainly to account for the slow RH
recover in western areas. PLEASE NOTE: any fires that might get
established this afternoon-evening will be subject to a strong
northerly wind shift very late tonight into Friday morning.

- FRIDAY:
Although it will be a moderately-windy day with north winds
slicing southward behind a strong cold front (sustained speeds
commonly 25-30 MPH/gusts to around 40 MPH), fortunately from a
fire weather perspective, it also continues to trend
increasingly-cool. In fact, our latest forecast only calls for
highs in the 50s across at least the northwestern 2/3rds of our
CWA, and mainly 60s at best in southeastern counties. As a
result, RH is expected to hold up at least slightly above
critical levels...bottoming out no lower than 25-35% most areas.

- SATURDAY:
Although it will be seasonably-cool with high temps only in the
50s-low 60s, the airmass will be quite a bit drier than
Friday...allowing afternoon RH to drop well down to at least
15-20%. As for winds, though not as strong as Friday, they will
still be plenty breezy with northwesterly speeds generally
sustained 15-25 MPH/gusting 20-35 MPH (overall strongest north
of I-80/weakest in northern KS). As a result, most of our
forecast area is again expected to meet critical criteria.

- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
Sunday still looks like another "one day break" from critical
fire weather concerns, as although RH is again forecast to
bottom out 10-20%, winds should be lighter than the previous few
days with even gusts mostly under 20 MPH. Unfortunately though,
potentially critical conditions return again for Monday as
warmer temperatures return with RH forecast s low as 15-20% in
most areas and southerly winds gust at least 25-30 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>076-082>085.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.
     Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
     for KSZ005-006-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion