Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

440
FXUS63 KOAX 110930
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light, mixed-precipitation is possible (20-30%) near the SD
  border into west-central IA through Thursday morning. Minor
  ice accumulation could lead to travel impacts there.

- Another round of light snow is likely (60-80%) in northeast
  Nebraska and west- central Iowa late Friday night and
  Saturday. There is a 40-60% chance of minor travel impacts in
  those areas.

- Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning
  before warming again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Widespread radar returns continue across the area this morning,
but ASOS/AWOS sites have reported almost no precip and a perusal
of highway cameras has suggested less than 10% of the detected
snowflakes are making their way to the ground. This makes sense
as forecast soundings have indicated that the lowest 5kft will
be saturating from the top down overnight.

This precipitation is in response to warm air building in from
the west. Temperatures at 2-5 kft will warm enough by daybreak
to melt any falling snow before it finds its way to the surface.
Surface temps, however, would be sub-freezing, especially if
subjected to evaporative cooling. PoPs are highest along the
northern tier of counties. Precip probabilities of 20-40%
aren`t high enough to issue a winter weather advisory, but
confidence in the freezing rain p-type is notably higher than
normal. Should that precip materialize, an advisory may be,
well, well-advised.

The best lift pushes northeast of the area by lunch today and
light precip would end quickly early this afternoon.

High temps in the northeastern corner of the CWA will peak only
a degree or two above freezing. The southwest corner of the
forecast area will push almost 30 degrees warmer. A cold front
pushes through this evening, and will leave temperatures a
little more uniform for the weekend.

.Friday and the Weekend...

Arctic air pours into the area as another Alberta clipper sweeps
through the Great Lakes. Friday`s highs will only peak in the
20s (north) and 30s (south). Another weaker clipper drives
through the northwesterly H5 flow on Saturday, producing a
stripe of frontogenesis and resultant potential snow across the
High Plains. Confidence continues to grow that this band will
impact northeastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Solutions
have been trending farther south over the past three days.
Current PoPs are peaking at 80% in our northern counties. NMB
probabilities of 2" or more of snow are 50% or greater from
Norfolk and Blair, NE and Avoca, IA and all points north. That
chance is only 25% at Omaha as the forecast stands. The
probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index suggests a 60% chance
of minor travel impacts in northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa
on Saturday.

Winds won`t be all that bad, but temps will slip lower. Highs
will mostly peak in the teens and Saturday night`s lows are
progged to end up on the wrong side of zero. Wind chills could
be as cold as -25 along the SD state line. Thankfully, this will
represent the nadir of the forecast as upper level ridging
begins to nose in from the west for early next week.

.Next Week...

Unfortunately, the ridge will be deamplifying as it approaches
from the west as an upper low cross the prairie provinces of
Canada. Still, temps will quickly moderate and push above normal
by Monday and are likely to remain above normal for the
foreseeable future. There is no strong signal for precip for
next week at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions should hold through the next 24 hours at all
three terminals, with the main forecast point to keep an eye on
being winds that have already begun shifting. KLNK and KOMA are
expected to follow KOFK`s lead in becoming southwesterly wind
direction at less than 10 kts, with those winds expected to
shift once again late afternoon tomorrow into the evening. Gusts
are expected to develop with the northwesterly winds. CLouds
should generally stay in the mid-to-high levels before lowering
at KOMA/KOFK tomorrow evening as precipitation chances drift to
the north of them.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

271
FXUS63 KGID 110913
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
313 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pleasant day is expected with highs in the 50s (northeast)
  to low 70s (southwest)

- Light snow (1" or less) is possible Friday night/Saturday
  morning along/northeast of an Ord-York line

- Colder weather this weekend with highs in the 20s and 30s.

- Highs return to the 50s next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the upper 20s
to 30s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A warm front will
gradually lift north/east across the area this morning, with
winds shifting to the west-southwest behind the front. This sets
up for temperatures climbing well above normal this afternoon
across the forecast area. Most areas will experience highs in
the 60s, with low 70s possible along/southwest of a line from
Arapahoe, NE to Osborne, KS. The "coldest" locations (highs 50s)
will be along and northeast of a line from York to Greeley,
closest to the warm front. Breezy winds are possible west of
Highway 281 this afternoon, gusting 20-25mph. The warm weather
and breezy winds could result in elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon west of Highway 183. Overall it looks
to be a very nice day for December standards, get outside and
enjoy it if you can!

A cold front pushes into the area tonight, with lows in the 20s to
low 30s. Near to below normal temperatures (highs low 30s to low
40s) are expected on Friday behind the frontal passage. Robust cloud
coverage and steady cold air advection will result in little
daytime warming along/north of Interstate 80. The next
system/disturbance pushes into the area Friday night/Saturday.
This brings a chance for snow to northeastern portions of the
area. The band of snow looks to be fairly narrow, with a sharp
cutoff in snow accumulations. The core of the band currently
looks to track just northeast of the area but a slight shift
north/south in the track could result in less/more snow
accumulation. For now, 1" or less of snow is possible along and
north of an Ord-York line, but again this could
increase/decrease with a south/north shift.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track as a colder weekend is
expected with highs in the 20s and 30s. Lows Sunday morning
will drop into the single digits to around zero. Temperatures
quickly rebound next week, climbing into the 50s as ridging-
northwest builds over the Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Winds have subsided nicely across the region this afternoon as
an area of surface high pressure has transitioned into the
central portion of the area. This area of high pressure is
expected to push east tonight as an upper level disturbance and
surface trough move in from the northwest. This trough will
push a warm front across the area overnight, resulting in a
quick rebound in temperatures Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the
warm front, however, there will be a brief window for some very
light precip across our north tonight, and have some very light
QPF in the forecast for areas northeast of the Nebraska Tri-
Cities this evening. Given the weak forcing relatively dry
airmass near the surface, this is a low probability event, and
little to no snowfall accumulation (T-0.5") is anticipated
across northeastern portions of the area.

While significant thin/high level cloud cover will likely trail
the aforementioned disturbance during the daytime hours
Thursday, this should have a minimal impact on afternoon high
temperatures tomorrow, which once again are expected to climb
into the lower 60s across the majority of the area. This warm-up
will be short lived, however, as the next upper level
disturbance and cold front push across the area Friday. While
there is still some spread in model guidance for temps Friday
afternoon and there correspondingly will likely be a
significant gradient in temperatures across the local area, the
cold air is expected to reach the tri-cities before peak
heating, and this should hold temperatures in the 30s across the
central and eastern portions of the area, while portions of
Kansas and western areas may still top out in the 40s to near
50.

As the cold front then spreads southwest across the entire area
Friday night, could see some light snow develop around daybreak
Saturday, but again this looks like a low qpf event that will
be focused across northern/northeastern portions of the area.
The main impact will therefore likely be the much cooler
temperatures and significant cloud cover (especially Saturday)
anticipated over the weekend.

As the main upper level low then swings further east by Monday,
expect the cold air in place to retreat to the east, and for a
rapid rebound in temperatures to start next week as weak ridging
aloft if realized and temperatures likely return to the 50s for
much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southeast winds
shift to the southwest this morning, becoming westerly during
the afternoon, gusting 15-20kts. Winds shift to the northwest
behind a cold front Thursday evening. SCT-BKN ceilings of
050-100 are expected overnight, with SCT high level clouds
possible during the day. Late in the TAF period Mid-level clouds
build back over the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion