Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

204
FXUS63 KOAX 251907
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
207 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat settles over the region with temperatures approaching
  the mid-90s to low 100s. Heat related concerns are expected
  through at least Sunday with Monday also looking hot.

- There is a small chance (15-30%) of a few severe thunderstorms
  late tonight and again Sunday night/Monday morning. Damaging
  wind is the primary threat each time.

- Temps remain hot next week, but should be closer to typical
  summer averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A gray and gloomy start to the day betrayed those unfamiliar
with the forecast. Overcast skies and widespread fog have
cleared as heights have risen and temperatures have soared. By
1pm this afternoon, sunny skies have temps mostly in the
upper-80s with dewpoints generally about 10 degrees lower. I`ll
do the math for you... heat indices are mostly between 100 and
108F. With the light winds, you`ll have to manufacture your own
way to remain cool.

Temps tonight drop only into the lower to middle-70s, making it
difficult to cool homes with no A/C.

A cluster of thunderstorms (MCS) is expected to work west to
east through most of South Dakota this evening and may clip the
northern portions of northeast Nebraska. These storms should be
weakening as they approach the Iowa state line, but wind gusts
over 70 mph are possible (5-10%). Expect those storms to clip
the area after dark, but mostly before midnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sunday is looking like the safest bet for dangerous heat as the
EXTREME HEAT WARNING has been expanded for all areas north and
east of the Platte River as heat indices of 110F are forecast
there. The heat advisory chugs along elsewhere (105F+). Sunday
night`s temps will be even warmer than tonight`s with downtown
Omaha expected to hold a low near 80F.

More thunderstorms are possible on Sunday with the heat and
humidity producing plenty of instability (3000 J/kg). Some
model guidance produces a cluster or line of storms in eastern
South Dakota that dives southeast in the evening hours. The
NBM`s blend averaged those PoPs to near zero, but with an
increasing number of solutions coming on board just this morning,
I`ve added 15-30% PoPs back in and that may be a bit underdone,
tbh. Again, with temps as hot as they are, the primary threat
will be a wind one. (Hail would be quick to melt above the sfc
and high LCLs [6 kft] leave a plenty of time to evaporate some
of the rain and produce downdrafts.)

.MONDAY...

Monday`s forecast is just as warm as the others - at least for
the southern half of the area - but heat headlines are currently
not as widespread or as serious as confidence is lower. A deep
low pressure system sweeping across Canada will be dragging a
cold front across the Dakotas and perhaps into eastern Nebraska.
Deterministic models have been slowing its arrival time and
reducing its impacts, although the Canadian solution remains
progressive with the front. For this reason, have left the
northern 1/3 of the forecast area headline free for Monday.
FWIW, model guidance has backed off solutions that drove an MCS
through Iowa mid-day Monday which would have introduced its own
set of unknowns.

.TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Temperature forecasts remain hot for Tuesday and beyond, but
will be a significant step cooler than those of this weekend.
Expect highs to peak near 90F each day, just a couple of degrees
above seasonal norms. Dewpoints will be a step lower, too,
thanks to easterly sfc winds flowing around the sfc high
setting up north of the CWA.

Regular chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms return
to the forecast for Wednesday and beyond as monsoonal moisture
is pulled around the anti-cyclonic upper ridge. Thursday`s
chances currently stick out as the best odds for rain/thunder at
30-40%. A shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies would be the
one to thank if you`re the beneficiary of some needed moisture.

The ridging does look to rebound for next weekend. The Climate
Prediction Center`s 6-10 day temperature outlook does lean
warmer than normal for the area. (Days 8-14 do not!)


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Reduced visibility and low cigs are now left only in areas
southeast of the Omaha area and are quickly sliding away from
the area. Mostly clear skies are expected over the next 24 hours
with 5-10 knot southerly winds at the sfc. No fog is forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for NEZ015-018-030>034-
     042>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045.
     Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-053.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for NEZ052-053.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-016-
     017.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ050-051-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for IAZ043.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-
     090-091.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

288
FXUS63 KGID 252048
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect areawide today into Monday
  evening.

- An Extreme Heat Warning may be issued for Sunday. There are
  some uncertainties with moisture and temperature for Sunday.

- There is a low chance of storms (around 15%) for Sunday
  evening mainly north of I-80. The main threat is wind gusts up
  to 60 MPH.

- Closer to normal high temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) are
  expected Tuesday through Friday with various rain and storm
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

An upper level ridge extends from Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas
northward to Kansas and Nebraska. Winds across north central Kansas
and south central and central Nebraska are mostly light and
variable. Winds are lighter than expected but may increase some out
of the south later this afternoon. Low-level moisture is hanging
around the area longer than expected today (with very little wind to
mix in drier air) with dewpoints mostly in the 70s and 80s. High
temperatures today are expected to reach the mid 90s to low triple
digits. These conditions have resulted in heat index values across
the area generally ranging from around 105 to near 120 degrees! A
Heat Advisory is in effect for the whole area and continues into
Monday evening. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
70s with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s. There is some
concern that dewpoint temperatures will be higher than what is
currently in the forecast, especially if drier air doesn`t move into
the area. This may lead to fog development as temperatures cool.
Winds will be fairly light (mainly between 5 to 10 MPH but may be
closer to 5 MPH) out of the south. These overnight conditions will
result in limited relief from the heat. If moisture is higher than
expected tonight, overnight lows may also be higher than what is in
the forecast.

The upper ridge will be more centered over the region on Sunday.
Winds will be a little stronger than the previous day Sunday
afternoon (southerly around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to around 25
MPH). Sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present. Temperatures
Sunday afternoon are expected to heat up to the mid/upper 90s to
around 105 degrees. The amount of moisture that will be present for
Sunday is still somewhat uncertain with the models not in agreement.
Based on the moisture hanging around longer than expected today,
tend to think that moisture values will be on the higher end.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly hotter than
today. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for Sunday. Low
temperatures for Sunday night will likely be slightly warmer than
the previous night with some isolated areas in north central Kansas
perhaps with lows around 80 degrees. There is a very slight (15% to
near 20% chance) of showers and storms Sunday evening across
northern portions of the area (mainly north of I-80). There is some
model disagreement on where these storms will occur but the main
risk with these storms will be wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Monday has the potential to be the hottest day but there is also a
lot of uncertainty with regards to temperature and moisture.
Generally expecting high temperatures to range from 97 to 103
degrees. Some of the hotter models have temperatures ranging from
around 105 to 110+ degrees! Tend to think these hotter temperatures
are not likely with a weak cold front with easterly winds expected
to begin moving into the area on Monday. The Heat Advisory ends at
10 PM Monday evening. Beginning Monday evening and continuing into
Friday, there are various chances of showers and storms across
portions of the area as shortwaves troughs move overhead. High
temperatures will be cooler beginning Tuesday with the arrival of a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds will become more southerly by 21z to
00z. Winds may increase up to around 10 knots this afternoon.
Winds will weaken this evening and will mostly be out of the
south. Winds are expected to increase between 15z to 18z Sunday
out of the south to around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion