Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

580
FXUS63 KOAX 190350
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1050 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning
  frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Severe weather has cleared to the southeast this evening leaving
cool, cloudy conditions in place for the overnight hours. We
have a large temperature gradient across the area with
temperatures in the upper 40s across northeast Nebraska, to
low-to-mid 60s in southwest Iowa and far southeast Nebraska. The
HRRR continues to show some potential for a couple additional
storms developing over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
around midnight tonight. If anything were to develop, it likely
wouldn`t be severe.

Skies will be clearing Tuesday morning as high pressure builds
over the area. Cooler air mass remains in place under northerly
flow. Overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday we light
winds and clear skies contribute to temperatures dropping into
the low-to-mid 30s across northeast Nebraska, possibly
necessitating a frost advisory for this area. Places more across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will see temperatures drop
into the upper 30s to low 40s, though a few outlying areas
around Omaha and Lincoln could still see some patchy frost.

High pressure remains centered over the region on Wednesday
keeping temperatures cooler than normal with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s. The trough over the northern Rockies starts to
deepen on Wednesday, re-amplifying southwesterly flow across
our region. This will bring moisture back to our area with
increasing clouds into the afternoon.

Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday as the trough
over the northern Rockies starts to deepen, reamplifying
southwesterly flow across our region which will lead back to
moisture advecting back into our area from the Gulf. As a warm
front lifts into northern Kansas on Wednesday, we see isentropic
upglide over our area lead to shower and storm development
starting Wednesday night continuing into Thursday. We don`t
actually see the warm front lift into our area until Friday,
keeping temperatures cool on Thursday as well.

Friday the warm front lifts north, getting wrapped up into a
developing surface low over the Northern Plains. This will
reinvigorating shower and storm chances through the morning
hours. We may see a small window of clearing before the cold
front arrives Friday afternoon/evening. We should watch this
period with some potential for severe storms, but at this time
there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the details of
this system.

Confidence significantly decreases in the forecast going into
next weekend as significant differences in the forecast of the
upper-level pattern develop. Ensembles suggest a trend back
toward warmer-than-normal temperatures toward the latter-half of
the weekend with low chances for storms possible Saturday and
Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings are observed across terminals this
afternoon. Will see an area of scattered showers and storms
overspread KLNK and KOMA after 21z. Have refined timing a bit with
this issuance, but expect further refinements and adjustments.
Storms that affect terminals will likely become severe with strong
winds, very large hail, and the potential for a tornado. Have added
a transition to -SHRA at KOMA and KLNK after 01/02z. Ceilings will
bounce between MVFR/IFR overnight, before largely becoming MVFR late
in the TAF period. Winds from the north northeast will turn to the
north northwest this evening, with gusts gradually increasing to 25
to 30 kts, persisting for the rest of the TAF cycle.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

759
FXUS63 KGID 190000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A handful of severe storms capable of producing large hail,
  damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado will be possible
  between 3-8PM today. The severe threat will mainly be for
  places near and east of HWY-81.

- A few showers, areas of drizzle and non-severe thunderstorms
  will be possible this afternoon across areas outside of the
  severe threat.

- Highs, following the passage of a cold front today, will peak
  in the 50s and 60s for much of the area. A few north central
  Kansas locations as well as far southeast Nebraska areas
  could see highs in the 70s.

- The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night
  (40-50% chance).

- Highs the rest of the week will stay in the 60s for
  Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, the low to mid 70s for Friday and
  the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving
force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central
Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going
up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS,
as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf
ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is
forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer
county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late
afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to
the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the
county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight
causing light rain and drizzle.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to
upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover
and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from
forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early
morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast
to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are
forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the
northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are
forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially
form.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central
Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle
of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains.
Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low
70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from
Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program
and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a
low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of
the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of
severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm
this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the
Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with
conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have
high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s.
Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to
start out next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level cloud cover and gusty winds will remain a concern
this evening through the overnight hours. There is some
uncertainty with ceilings...as models show them hovering either
side of the MVFR/IFR threshold. Model time heights don`t show a
more improvement in ceilings until mid-late morning on
Tuesday...VFR conditions do return, confidence in the exact
timing is not high. Not looking at changes in the winds out of
the northwest...with the potential for gusts around 25-30 MPH
not out of the question through the overnight hours. Speeds
gradually taper off Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion