Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

030
FXUS63 KOAX 140524
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  with upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, and mid 60s to
  low 70s by Tuesday.

- Rain returns late tonight into Saturday, mainly along and
  south of I-80, with the highest chances (40-70%) near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- An active weather pattern arrives by the middle of next week.
  Periodic precipitation chances with cooler, yet still above
  normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight and Saturday

Cloud cover continues to increase as a low pressure system continues
developing over the southern Great Plains with the associated
precipitation shield lifting north towards the area. Rain showers
will overspread the area after midnight and these showers continue
through Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will largely be confined to
areas along and south of Interstate 80. The best chances (40-70%) of
rain will be focused near the Kansas and Nebraska border. These
areas may receive a tenth or two of rainfall throughout the day.
Elsewhere that sees rain will be lucky to receive a few hundredths of
an inch. In the areas expecting rainfall, temperatures will be
limited to the upper 50s. Areas that remain dry should climb into
the lower 60s under filtered sunshine.

Sunday through Tuesday

A warming trend takes over behind Saturday`s system. Temperatures
climb into the mid 60s for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the
lower 70s are not out of the question by Tuesday ahead of our next
system. It should remain dry during this period, with passing cloud
cover, and gusty winds at times.

Wednesday and Beyond

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a leading shortwave trough lift and pass
north of the region, providing only a glancing chance of rain for
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Temperatures cool slightly
back into the 60s with the limited influence of this system. The
main trough arrives sometime late next week. Forecast model guidance
remains uncertain on the exact timing, location, and strength of
this system. This will influence the exact details a bit during this
period late in the forecast. That being said, the general trend will
be cooler temperatures, though remaining above normal, and
precipitation chances. At this time, rain is expected initially with
a potential change to a rain/snow mix or snow late in the forecast
as colder temperatures move in. This will continue to be monitored
as confidence increases in later forecasts. Stay tuned for details!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions through tonight with cigs around FL100-120
expanding northeastward across eastern Nebraska into western
Iowa. Winds are light and generally out of the southeast. We`ll
see rain push northward into southeast Nebraska overnight,
clipping or staying just south of KLNK with a 40% chance of
showers impacting the terminal. Closer to a 60% chance we see a
period of MVFR cigs move into KLNK around 15Z and stay MVFR
through around 21Z. To the north, KOMA should stay just north of
the rain chances, but there is a 30% chance MVFR cigs make it
into the terminal here as well. Put in SCT020 into the TAF for
the period from 15-21Z here as well, though if we do see MVFR
cigs at KOMA, they likely will only last a couple of hours or
may bounce in and out. KOFK should stay well north of any
impacts to the terminal, staying VFR with cigs around FL100
through the period. Expect a return to VFR conditions at all the
terminals by 21Z with clearing skies and winds shifting more
northerly toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will be under
5 kt though, so they may become VRB or even calm.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

115
FXUS63 KGID 140532
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1132 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will be increasing this evening/tonight into at
  least the first half of the day on Saturday. The overall best
  chances remain across areas near and south of the NE/KS state
  line, where amounts exceeding 0.25-in are possible. Some
  uncertainty remains with just how far north measurable rain
  gets...some models show potential for at least 0.01-in near
  I-80.

- Dry conditions return to start the new week, with forecast
  highs currently peaking on Tuesday with upper 60s to low 70s.
  Tuesday will have the potential for gusty SW to W winds, and
  with the warmer temperatures/drier dewpoints...potential for
  near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will be a
  concern, especially for areas west of HWY 281.

- Additional low-end (20-30 percent) chances for precipitation
  return Tuesday evening through Friday, but overall confidence
  in any of those chances remains low due to model
  uncertainties. Cooler air eventually works its way in, with
  highs dropping into the 40s-50s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Currently...

Outside of a few scattered sprinkles sliding through southern
portions of the forecast area early this morning, been another
overall quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data
continue to show zonal flow in place across the region. Broad
ridging extends north through the Plains, set up between
troughing along the East Coast and a low pressure system
working its way into the Desert SW. Satellite imagery showing
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies currently, with increasing
mid-upper level cloud cover inching its way closer toward the
forecast area...a trend that will continue the rest of today. At
the surface, we`re sitting between high pressure over the
Midwest and SErn CONUS and weak troughing along the High Plains.
This has brought us SSWrly winds...and similar to yesterday,
while most speeds will top out around 10-15 MPH, some gusts
closer to 20 will be possible through the afternoon hours. Not
looking at any surprises as far as temperatures with generally
low 60s expected.

This evening through Saturday...

Overall, there hasn`t been any significant changes in models
today regarding the incoming precipitation chances...which
remain liquid through entire event. The upper level
troughing/low moving into the Desert SW this afternoon will
continue its eastward trek through Saturday, with models in
pretty good agreement showing the center of the 500mb low
tracking along/just south of the OK/TX border. This will keep
the bulk of heavier precipitation well to our south across the
Srn Plains, but the main trough axis will be passing through the
area, and models show the potential for a sharper/better swath
of forcing tied closer to 700mb...driving our chances. Main
question has been and still remains with just how far north more
than a trace or few hundredths can get...agreement is still
good that the better potential for 0.1 in or more lies closer
to/south of the NE/KS state line. At the surface, the main low
is also tracking well south of the forecast area, meaning winds
will gradually turn more easterly- northerly with time...which
can impact the northward extent of precipitation. Most models
show overall not a lot going on through the evening hours...the
better chances ramp up after midnight tonight, and especially
closer to the 09-12Z. Those better chances look to continue
roughly into midday-early afternoon, with things tapering off
from west-east through the rest of the afternoon. Have some 20
percent chances lingering in the far SE into early evening, but
several models have things dry by 00Z.

Not a ton of change with forecast rainfall totals for the
event...with amounts around the 0.10-0.2 range along the state
line, amounts in the 0.2-0.5 range across north central KS.
Think that across our KS counties, most totals end up closer to
that 0.2 number than 0.5...ensemble probabilities of 0.5 in or
more are still mainly only in that 10-30 percent range. The NAM
and ECMWF are on the more generous side with at least 0.01
in...EC ensemble has probabilities over 60 percent as far north
as along I-80 (GFS ensemble is further south).

Confidence in high temperatures on Saturday remains on the low
side...how the precipitation actually ends up evolving will play
a large role. Expecting plenty of cloud cover across central
and SE areas...but there will be the potential for some sun in
the NW as the afternoon passes, allowing for some warming.
Forecast highs range from the low 50s in the SE to near 60 in
the NW.

Sunday and on...

Overall quiet conditions return to the forecast for the start of
the new week, with models in good agreement showing broad
upper level ridging moving in behind this Sat. system. Through
the day on Sunday, winds turn back to the SSW, as the area is
once again set up between departing sfc high pressure to the SE
and a deepening trough axis over the High Plains...winds on
Monday are a little more uncertain with models showing the
potential for a weak boundary to move in. With a lack of colder
air accompanying that Sat. system, forecast highs both Sunday
and Monday bounce back into the low-mid 60s.

Tuesday is currently forecast to be the overall warmest day of
the week, with highs near 70 to lower 70s across
central/southern portions of the forecast area. It also has the
potential to be a breezy/windy day...and fire weather is a
concern. In the upper levels, models showing larger, broader
troughing taking over the western CONUS, with the potential for
a shortwave disturbance to swing NE out of the central Rockies
into the Dakotas. Ahead of this wave, sfc low pressure deepens
over the Nrn/Central High Plains...with a frontal boundary
swinging through during the day. We`ll see how models trend with
these features and the timing, but current forecast has gusty
SSW developing by midday, switching to the west through the
afternoon. Dewpoints dropping into the 20s-low 30s and current
forecast highs results in relative humidities dropping below 30
percent basically west of HWY 281, and near/below 20 percent
west of HWY 183. Potential for near-critical/critical fire
weather conditions...so did insert a mention into the HWO.
Forecast has some low end precipitation chances (20 percent)
mainly Tue evening/night as that shortwave swings
through...focused across the northern half of the forecast area.

Zonal upper level flow returns to the region for the latter half
of the week...potential remains for a couple of shortwave
disturbances to pass through the region, bringing addition
precip chances...but confidence in any of those details is low,
so the chances remain low. Even though one boundary pushes
through Tuesday...not a great push of colder air, so highs on
Wednesday remain in the 60s. A reinforcing front looks to push
through Thursday, ushering in colder air and another push of
gusty winds, this time out of the NW. Highs for Thursday and
Friday fall back more into the 40s-50s, still above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with some
MVFR CIGS possible for a few hours if some rain showers reach
the terminals during the morning hours Saturday.

For the overnight hours...expect increasing mid level clouds at
both terminals over the next couple of hours as an area of low
pressure across the southwest eventually tracks into the
southern plains. Towards daybreak Saturday...expect the
atmosphere to begin to Saturate with CIGS lowering to near 5KFT
and a small chance for MVFR CIGS and some -RA or sprinkles from
roughly 14/12-14/18. Winds will generally be light through the
period...at less than 12 KTS...predominantly southerly through
the overnight hours hours and eventually becoming northerly on
the backside of the passing area of low pressure Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion