78°F
Updated:
6/11/2026
5:02:50pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
777 FXUS63 KOAX 111908 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and storm chances return Saturday (40-60% chance) with another chance for severe storms Saturday during the from 3 to 8 AM. - Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Today and Tomorrow: Quieter conditions have settled in this afternoon after the substantial morning storm activity, with highs this afternoon largely in the upper 70s alongside breezy northwesterly winds gusting to 25-35 mph. Zooming out a bit to the larger pattern, mid/upper troughing continues to push through the area, warding off additional rain chances for the day and into tomorrow for our local area. We`ll enjoy mostly clear skies tomorrow, with winds switching back out of the southwest that will help us reach back into the mid 80s for high temperatures. Those temperatures will feel a lot better than they have lately, with afternoon humidity values falling to 25- 40% as opposed to the 60% or higher values we`ve seen with the hotter days earlier this week. Saturday and Beyond: The main focus of the forecast now shifts to Saturday, where the mid/upper pattern continues to transition out of troughing and into more zonal flow -- spurred on by the convergence of a pair of shortwaves across the Central Plains. Those two features are set to bring back rain chances to the area, with sufficient instability and shear being present to allow for severe potential. The first and most troublesome to nail down for the forecast is coming in from the northwest, dragging a cold front with it while it flattens out the upper pattern. The timing of this feature will be key to the timing and overall ceiling for the severe threat for Saturday, with recent trends continuing to show a quick arrival of the front, which is now being resolved in 12z CAM guidance as a swath of elevated storms materializing over south-central Nebraska around 3 AM that progresses to the east-northeast through 8 AM. Working along with that impinging shortwave from the northwest, a shortwave and lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and organize a highly- sheared baroclinic zone across southern Nebraska, with the nosing LLJ to its east service as the initiating mechanism. The elevated nature of these storms make hail the primary hazard, with sporadic damaging wind being the secondary. If the approach of the cold front slows, we`ll have more time for instability to increase into the morning and afternoon, at which time additional hazards would be in play. For now, the lower ceiling hail, flood, and wind scenario seems the most likely from 3-8 AM barring seismic shifts in future model runs. Sunday into next week trends cooler with northwesterly mid/upper flow ushering in Canadian air while low-amplitude ridging builds over the western third of the CONUS. We`ll have additional chances at rainfall as shortwaves ripple through the flow, with hot temperatures being not too far over the High Plains. If there`s a better time for rain chances to return, Tuesday/Wednesday would be the next bet for meaningful precip as a cold front dives south through the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, with northerly to northwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 mph across the area. Those gusts are set to continue through the afternoon before tapering off from 00-02z this evening. By 06z, winds will swing southwesterly while remaining light, with directions expected to settle out of the west-southwest by the morning hours at below 10 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
492 FXUS63 KGID 112111 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 411 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may bring a few strong storms to the area. The severe threat, however, looks to remain limited through Saturday morning. - A slight risk of severe weather covers only a few southeast portions of the area Saturday afternoon. This threat is highly conditional based on the timing of the front on Saturday. - Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the 90s to potentially the low 100s in a handful of places by midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Tonight and Friday... Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low 80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal, generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher pressure marching in behind last night`s front has helped clear out most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon. Friday Night into Saturday... A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over Canada`s Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms. Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture will rebound from today. The current forecast projects dewpoints to only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at least initially, generally not all that supportive. A few of these overnight storms may linger into Saturday morning as the front passes through the area. A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Beyond... Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs (10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The primary concern is breezy northwesterly winds throughout the remainder of the day today. As the sun sets and mixing decreases, so should the breezy northwesterly winds. Winds overnight will decrease and eventually become variable. By morning, southerly winds will return to both terminals with winds between 10-18kts. Skies are generally going to be clear with some high clouds possible late. VFR conditions expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Billings Wright
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