Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

056
FXUS63 KOAX 171050
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
550 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible this morning, followed by highs in the
  90s to near 100 today. Isolated showers are also possible
  this afternoon.

- Heat builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching 100
  to 108 degrees Sunday and Monday.

- Cooler weather returns by midweek, along with increasing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Tonight and Friday...

Mid- to upper-level ridging remains in place across the central
CONUS, supporting continued warm and generally quiet
conditions. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers developed
this afternoon. Fog development is expected again overnight into
Friday morning. Forecast soundings depict a shallow saturated
layer near the surface with gusty winds above it. As a result,
fog should remain patchy and largely confined to low-lying and
wind protected area, along with scattered areas that received
healthy rain showers this afternoon.

Temperatures will trend slightly warmer Friday, with highs
ranging from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees along the
Nebraska-South Dakota border. Continued low-level theta-e
advection and evapotranspiration will maintain muggy dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s, resulting in peak heat index values
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Can`t rule out a few additional
widely scattered diurnally driven showers during the afternoon
(20% chance), generally along and south of I-80 where the better
instability resides. While instability is plentiful, shear will
remain very weak, limiting any severe weather potential and
likely keep showers relatively stationary. A localized downpour
and rumble of thunder remain the primary hazard.

Saturday through Monday...

Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as the mid-
level ridge axis shifts toward the western High Plains and warmer
850 mb temperatures spread into the region. Highs Saturday will
reach the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values generally in the
upper 90s to low 100s. Temperatures will increase further Sunday,
with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. The
warmest readings are expected across northeast Nebraska, while heat
index values range from the upper 90s to around 106 degrees.

Sunday, a shortwave trough pushing into the northern Plains is
expected to initiate overnight convection, potentially
organizing into an MCS. Ensemble guidance has consistently kept
the strongest signal north of the forecast area, primarily
across South Dakota. However, some of this activity could graze
northeast Nebraska, where PoPs of 15% remain in place Sunday
night. The disturbance will also help push a cold front into the
area Sunday. Despite the name, the front is not expected to
provide much relief, though it may lower dewpoints by a degree
or two across northeast Nebraska.

Monday continues to have the warmest temperatures in the
forecast, with widespread highs from 99 to 105 degrees and peak
heat index values from 100 to around 108 degrees. The highest
heat index values are expected across southwest Iowa, where
dewpoints will be the highest. Confidence in Monday`s
temperatures is slightly lower due to the potential for
overnight convection to the north. A southward shift in
convection or lingering cloud cover could limit daytime heating.

Heat headlines will likely be needed for portion of the period. Heat
index values are generally near Heat Advisory criteria, with
overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s, providing little
relief. The duration of the heat and warm overnight temperatures
will support widespread High HeatRisk, particularly Sunday and
Monday.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances are
expected during the period as a shortwave trough pushing into the
northern Plains dampens the ridge and pushes another cold front
through the area Monday night. Highs Tuesday are still expected to
reach the low to mid 90s, with high temperatures falling into the
80s Wednesday and Thursday as cooler air and cloud cover returns to
the region. The best precipitation chances currently appear to be
Wednesday night into Thursday, when another shortwave passage
supports PoPs of 30-50%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals this morning, with
only a few spots across far southern Iowa that are showing some
visibility restrictions to 2 miles. Otherwise, winds are
starting out light and out of the southeast, which should
increase this afternoon while shifting south-southwesterly with
a cloud layer developing at FL045-055 and a 10% chance of a
pop-up shower or storm.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

400
FXUS63 KGID 171114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be on the gradual rise through Monday (highs
  in the low triple digits possible Sunday/Monday afternoon).

- Temperatures for much of the rest of the week should hang
  around the mid 80s to mid 90s.

- Dry conditions, outside of a few isolated showers along a
  nearby cold front Saturday afternoon, will be expected to last
  through Tuesday.

- A few chances of precipitation (15-45%) currently lie across
  the Wednesday night through Friday period, though confidence
  remains limited for any event still 6 to 7 days out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026


The main story within the short-term period will be the steadily
increasing heat over the weekend. A ridge, parked across much of the
central U.S. in the mid to upper levels, has been responsible for
keeping around generally drier and warmer temperatures. This feature
has no intentions of breaking down or shifting away anytime soon (at
least through the weekend). As result, temperatures are likely to
continue to increase through Monday with no widespread precipitation
chances in the forecast.

Highs today will likely range the upper 80s to mid 90s (a degree or
two warmer from Thursday) as mostly clear skies continue to let the
sun shine through. In addition, a weak surface pressure gradient
will keep winds light (5-15MPH) and generally out of the south for
the day. Similar conditions should return for Saturday, though highs
will mainly range the mid 90s with the light surface winds out of
the southeast. For comparison, normal highs for time of year (mid
July) usually range around the upper 80s for south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas.

In terms of precipitation, chances remain out of the forecast for
now. A cold front, however, should near north central and eastern
nebraska Saturday afternoon. It is possible for a few localized
showers or weak thunderstorms to pop up along this front. The
coverage of any such precipitation, however, should cover less than
20% of the coverage area (south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas).

Even warmer conditions will be expected to come Sunday as highs near
the 100s. The latest HREF guidance suggests that 20-30% of the area
could see highs reach 100 degrees on Sunday afternoon. Despite the
warming temperatures, heat index values are only forecast as high as
96-104 degrees given the presence of mid 60s dewpoints. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies with the continuation of steady southerly winds
(10-15MPH) will remain put among broad high surface pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The primary change in this forecast was the addition of isolated
sprinkles/showers to the forecast for this afternoon. This is
most favorable over the eastern half of the area. There is
enough instability that a few rumbles of thunder are not out of
the question as well. Shear is very weak, so updrafts will be
short-lived and non-severe. All in all, impacts will be
minimal, and the overwhelming majority of the area is expected
to remain dry.

Otherwise, ridging will continue to favor mostly dry and
increasingly warm conditions through the weekend. Temperatures
on both Sunday and Monday could approach 100 degrees with heat
index values near 105 degrees in many areas. Of the two days,
Monday looks to be the "peak," before a pattern shift for the
middle to end of next week.

Models favor a more active pattern for the middle to end of
next week. But, to be fair, it isn`t particularly hard to be
more active than this week has been. The EPS favors slightly
above-normal precip totals in the 5-10 day range, but the other
global ensembles are not quite as optimistic.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to retain across the period (>80%
confidence). Though a few clouds as low as 4-6kft will develop
across the afternoon to evening hours, cloud bases will mainly
stay scattered or few. Winds will be light to steady (5-10kts)
with occasional afternoon gusts as high as 15kts possible. Wind
directions will retain a southerly orientation through the day
and night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion