Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

664
FXUS63 KOAX 070456
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1056 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through Wednesday.

- Measurable precipitation chances Thursday into early Saturday
  (40-60%). Some accumulating snow is possible, but looks to be
  less than an inch as of now followed by gusty winds Saturday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures rebound quickly next week, with highs returning
  to the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features quasi-zonal flow across
most of the CONUS, with several shortwaves pushing across the
northern half while deeper low swirls off the coast of southern
California. Warmth is the main message for today and tomorrow, with
highs out-performing most of the guidance so far this afternoon by
pushing into the low-to-upper 50s with the gentle slope from the
High Plains to give that extra adiabatic nudge to the temperatures.
Joining the warmth are generally decreasing dewpoints, brought
in by those westerlies to make our foggy morning much harder to
repeat compared to this morning. Temperatures fall to a similar
range tonight, with about 5 degree lower dewpoints that will
make widespread fog unlikely aside from the coolest points in
the bottoms of river and creek valleys where cold air is able to
drain most efficiently. Temperatures rebound tomorrow as winds
shift southwesterly and a thermal ridge builds over the High
Plains. Highs are expected to top out in the upper 50s to low
60s with slightly gustier winds that will range in the 25 to 35
mph range (supported by many of the CAMs, including the
RAP/HRRR). The warmth to the west will be bolstered by a
deepening system associated with the California coast low that
is poised to bring a pattern change for the latter half of the
week.

Thursday and Beyond:

By Thursday morning, the eastern edge of a broad trough will arrive
to the central CONUS, carrying with it a compact shortwave that
will trigger lee cyclogenesis, with a surface low that will
eject from southeastern Colorado into northeast Kansas and
towards southeast Iowa. The residual warmth present when this
system arrives will keep the initial precipitation as rain, with
this batch of model soundings suggesting that we should have
some snow filling in on the backside for a brief period of time
as the system departs. As the transition happens, the lowest 1
km will have a nearly isothermal layer that will hover near
freezing to eat away at any initial snow that tries to fall.
Temperatures will be warmer than the precipitation type may
indicate, with some snow falling in temperatures in the mid-30s
overnight into early Friday. As of now, snow is only possible
with the lingering deformation band late Thursday into the
overnight hours, with much of that melting before actually
sticking. Temperatures Friday do rebound into the 30s, with the
next weather-maker arriving with the back edge of the broad
trough late Friday into Saturday. As of now, this snow has a
lower chance of landing, owing primarily to the lower moisture
through the column compared to the previous. Initial soundings
do indicate that if it does pan out, it will fall primarily as
snow with decreasing temperatures and a lack of any inversions
aloft to bring in mixed precipitation. This snow could overlap
slightly with winds that quickly ramp up over the course of the
day from the deepening low to the east and the high pressure to
the west filling in behind it. Gusts could reach 35 to 45 mph or
more, but should not result in any areas of dramatic blowing
snow unless we get considerably more snow than currently
forecast (generally less than a trace).

With the chances for the light snow in the rear-view mirror,
ensembles show high 500 mb anomalies spreading from the western
CONUS into the central portion, with highs as dry weather and highs
in the 40s and 50s (well-above normal) return to the forecast area
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle at
all terminals with little to no cloud cover. KOFK may see a
period of LLWS by 11z lasting through 16z. Thereafter, expect
the light winds at all three terminals to become gusty from the
southwest at 18 to 25 kts. Winds subside by the late afternoon,
becoming light under 12 kts from the south southwest by 00z.
High based clouds will slowly fill in from the south late in TAF
period ahead of an approaching storm system.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

536
FXUS63 KGID 070538
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1138 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of at least "near-critical" fire weather
  conditions is likely mainly in northern parts of our forecast
  area (CWA) Wednesday afternoon (see separate Fire Weather
  section below for more details).

- Wednesday brings one final day of near-record to record
  temperatures (highs low-mid 60s), before things at least
  return closer to "normal" January readings especially Friday-
  Sunday (highs mainly 30s-40s).

- Thursday-Friday bring two largely separate and STILL-HIGHLY-
  UNCERTAIN chances for snow to various parts of our CWA.
  Thursday`s uncertain snow chances will depend fully on whether
  enough cooling can occur to change rain over to wet/slushy
  snow, while Friday`s uncertain snow chances have more to with
  whether system track brings snow into our area or perhaps
  largely misses our CWA to the south-southeast.

- Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday-Tuesday, although
  Saturday bears watching for pesky snow showers on the backside
  of the departing upper trough.

- Although not as warm as currently/lately, Monday-Tuesday looks
  to bring a return of mild highs at least upper 40s-low 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
 CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- Besides near-critical fire weather conditions now expected in
  our northern CWA for Wednesday afternoon (and introduced to
  our Hazardous Weather Outlook), BY FAR the main forecast
  change is that precipitation chances (PoPs) for both Thursday
  and to a lesser extent Friday have ramped up quite a bit (and
  likely not nearly enough for Thursday).

- That being said, even by Day 2-3 out-in-time standards,
  uncertainty is plenty high regarding "exactly" how snow
  potential will play out. Fortunately, whether or not snow does
  indeed become much of an issue, most of our CWA (especially
  the southeast 2/3rds) is now expected to see a decent winter
  rain (at least a few tenths of an inch...perhaps a half inch
  far southeast?)...which is much-needed and should soak in
  nicely given the unfrozen ground.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Tues. Jan.
 13th):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Will state up front that spent more time than initially expected
today dealing with very-short-term fire weather concerns. In
short, temperatures (warmer) dewpoints/relative humidity
(lower/drier) and winds (breezier) all at least slightly
"overachieved" this afternoon...bringing widespread "near-
critical" fire weather conditions to much of our CWA (especially
the western half), and outright-critical conditions to mainly
our extreme west-southwest counties (a Red Flag Warning remains
in effect for a short while longer for
Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Phillips/Rooks.

Under pristinely clear skies, high temperatures slightly-
exceeded expectations from our early-AM forecast, with most of
the CWA topping out 58-64 degrees (Hastings broke its Jan. 6th
record...see details in Climate section below). Aiding the very
warm temperatures were breezy west-northwest winds (commonly
sustained at least 15-20 MPH/gusting at least 20-30 MPH (and
localized higher especially far west).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm broad west-
northwesterly flow overhead, with the passage of a subtle
shortwave currently departing from eastern NE into IA likely
aiding in somewhat-enhancing today`s breezy conditions.


- TONIGHT:
This will be a tranquil/quiet night under continued clear/mostly
clear skies. Once the enhanced afternoon winds subside, the
evening-overnight will feature only light-but-steady
southwesterly breezes mainly 5-10 MPH. Low temps are aimed only
slightly below freezing (most areas 28-32, with any mid 20s most
favored far west.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
If you are into weather more typical of fall than winter, then
get out and enjoy this! Although high level cirrus clouds will
be on a gradual increase (mainly in the afternoon), this will
simply be one final very warm day (probably record breaking for
Jan. 7th?), with less wind than today in MOST places. High temps
were geared toward the warmer end of guidance, and were raised a
good 2-4 degrees from previous forecast. This puts most of our
CWA into the 61-64 range for afternoon highs. Winds will mainly
be out of the south-southwest in most of our CWA, except for far
northern counties where they will remain more westerly.
Sustained speeds in most places 5-15 MPH/gusts 10-20 MPH.
However, especially northern counties could see westerly gusts
more so 20-25 MPH (driving near-critical fire weather concerns).


- WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
The vast majority of our CWA will remain dry through sunrise
Thursday with only increasing clouds as a well-defined upper
wave/shortwave trough approaches from the Southern High Plains.
However, very late in the night the leading edge of rain showers
(non-freezing) could reach our far southern counties (mainly KS
counties). Low temps aimed low-mid 30s most places except upper
30s far southeast.


- THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT (highly uncertain snow chance #1):
In short, the aforementioned upper wave will track northeastward
across the heart of the Central Plains, spreading an expansive
shield of what will start out as much-needed "plain" rain
northward across/into most of our CWA. The "million dollar
question" is whether enough dynamic cooling can occur on the
north side of this rain band to cause a potentially "sneaky"
changeover to very wet/slushy snow during the afternoon-evening
hours. Considering that our official forecast currently features
NO true snow accumulation, model solutions such a the latest
NAMNest (which tries to imply that at least 2-4 inches of wet
snow could fall in a southwest-northeast stripe across the heart
of our CWA) are admittedly a bit uncomfortable given this is
only a few days away. No matter how much/how little
precipitation changes to snow Thursday afternoon-evening,
precipitation should largely depart by midnight, putting our
area in a "lull"/break in between systems. Temperature-wise,
although things could drop several degrees colder in the
afternoon under the heaviest precip, at least for now we`re
calling for highs to reach the mid-upper 40s most areas. In
summary: our forecast may have to drastically pivot toward
higher snow potential fairly late in the game IF some model
trends hold (at least have introduced potential to our HWO for
now).

- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
While Thursday carries more precip type/changeover issues,
Friday is more about WHETHER our CWA will see much precipitation
at all as the primary, larger-scale upper trough tracks through
the central United States. That being said, what does fall would
more assuredly be in the form of snow. To make a long story
short, the latest NAM/GFS keep the vast majority of our CWA (all
but the far south) snow- free...while the ECMWF is a bit more
aggressive in dropping up to a few inches of accumulation over
the southeast 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA. Unlike Thursday, our
official forecast does at least carry some minimal snow
accumulation (highest over our KS zones). Plenty of time to sort
things out, but this could range anywhere from a somewhat snowy
afternoon-evening, to simply a chilly and snow-free time frame.
High temps were nudged down into the upper 30s most areas
(perhaps not low enough?).


- SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT:
Our official forecast is mostly dry behind the departing large
scale system, but both the ECMWF/GFS suggest that we`ll need to
be wary of some snow shower potential (probably somewhat
convective in nature). High temps were also lowered a good 2-4
degrees here...now mainly mid-upper 30s.


- SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
These three days appear mainly dry (especially Sunday- Monday)
in the wake of the departing system, but continued weaker waves
will pass by under northwesterly flow aloft. High temps are
expected to rebound from mainly 40s Sunday...to more in the way
of low 50s for Mon-Tues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main aviation concern will be short window for low level wind
shear (LLWS) at the terminals between about 10Z and 14Z. Overall
speeds remain somewhat marginal at 40-45kt (at best) atop 6-8kt
at the sfc, but there does appear to be enough of a directional
component (SW at sfc beneath WNW aloft) to justify formal
inclusion. Otherwise, VFR conditions are very likely (nearly
cloud-free) with variable sfc winds between SW to WNW at
relatively modest speeds 8-12kt. GRI could see some gusts around
20kt for a few hours around midday. Confidence: High.

Beyond the next 24hrs...there will be substantial incr in
cloud cover after 06Z Thu, but appears any sub-VFR CIGs will
hold off until around or after 18Z Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

-- REGARDING LIKELY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:
Although meteorological fire weather parameters are not expected
to "overachieve" as much as they just did today within our
forecast area, we are now forecasting at least "near-critical
conditions to develop Wednesday afternoon, primarily within some
of our Nebraska counties north of I-80. Farther south across the
majority of our area, fortunately winds are expected to be
lighter and not meet criteria)

More specifically, counties north of I-80 are most favored to
experience at least a few hours of both: 1) Relative humidity
(RH) as low as 20-25 percent...2) west-southwest winds gusting
at least 20-25 MPH.

-- NOTE:
NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of
20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
15+MPH/20+ MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:
Our final couple of days of anomalous warmth (today and
Wednesday) have already/likely yet will feature more record high
temperatures.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values)
stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings
airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue
official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI).

Please note that * indicates that our latest forecast/observed
value would tie or break (or already has) an existing daily
record:


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES       | Latest Forecast
                                       or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

January 6: 64 in 1902            | Observed: 61
January 7: 63 in 2003, 1902      | Forecast: 64*

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

January 6: 59 in 1935            | Observed: 60* (new record)
January 7: 63 in 2003            | Forecast: 63*

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion