61°F
Updated:
6/16/2026
01:15:25am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
632 FXUS63 KOAX 160535 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms across southeast Nebraska early Tuesday morning and across far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early Wednesday morning. - Wednesday afternoon is expected to be hot, dry, and windy with very high fire danger forecast across portions of northeast Nebraska. - A more active weather pattern arrives late this week into this weekend. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms exist through this time period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 A weak disturbance is pivoting across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight. A weak front accompanies this feature. This front will do little to temperatures, but will bring a low (10-30%) chance of showers and a few rumbles of thunder to portions of southeast Nebraska early Tuesday morning. Temperatures start in the 50s to near 60 as surface high pressure fills in behind the front during this time. Another beautiful afternoon is expected with temperatures warming into the low 80s under mostly sunny skies with light winds. This weather will be hard to beat for mid-June. A more substantial weather system is set to dive across the Plains heading into Wednesday. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may skirt far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the system rapidly approaches. This activity will be working with limited moisture and instability, so little impact is expected. With the progression of this system continuing to be faster in the latest model guidance, the afternoon thunderstorm threat has become more and more unlikely. As a result, a quicker frontal passage will result in a hot, dry, and windy afternoon. Wind gusts across a large portion of the area may reach as high as 35-45 mph by afternoon as temperatures push well into the 80s and relative humidity falls to around 25%. For much of the area this isn`t a problem with green vegetation in place, but lingering dry fuels over portions of northeast Nebraska may support very high fire danger. The wind and fire threat remains on the marginal side, but wind advisories or fire weather products may be required. Surface high pressure fills in behind Wednesday`s system for Thursday. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures are anticipated for the afternoon. Most locations see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for another beautiful day. Beyond Thursday, a transition to a more active weather pattern remains on track. As the more progressive weather pattern takes shape, several disturbances are likely to traverse the region late this week through the weekend. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this period. While peak severe weather season is coming to an end, severe weather potential may still be possible and this will need to be monitored as this time period approaches. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. Light northwest winds continue through the morning hours, transitioning to southerly by 00Z. KLNK and KOMA may see a few sprinkles overnight, but otherwise the period will be dry. Toward the end of the forecast, LLWS may develop at KLNK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
478 FXUS63 KGID 160531 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chance (20-30%) spotty showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Tuesday southeast of the Tri-cities into southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Severe weather is not expected. - Hot and windy on Wednesday. Highs in the 90s with winds 20-30 gusting to 40 mph. - Thunderstorm chances increase (greater than 40-60%) for the weekend as the pattern becomes more active. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not expected to be strong or severe. As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week. The next front will move through the area Wednesday. Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models currently show the front traversing the area during the day, which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas, especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the fuels and the weather conditions. After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week. The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could be strong to severe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry, VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period. Mid to upper level clouds are clouds are expected to move across the area tonight, with more upper level clouds possibly developing in the afternoon. Light, variable winds are expected tonight, becoming southerly by the late morning. Wind speeds will increase Tuesday afternoon through the evening, with southerly winds gusting to near 30 kts possible at the end of the forecast period. These strong surface level winds below a developing SW low-level jet make low-level wind shear a possibility at the end of the forecast period (approximately 4Z and onward). However, confidence in the magnitude, height, and coverage of this shear is low and has thus not been included in the TAF at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Scott
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