Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

054
FXUS63 KOAX 271051
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues Monday, with peak heat index values
  of 105 to 115 degrees.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday
  evening into early Tuesday, with isolated strong wind gusts
  possible.

- Temperatures settles back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
  Tuesday into the work week, with precipitation chances
  returning Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Another very warm and humid day unfolded beneath the persistent mid-
to upper-level ridge. High temperatures reached the lower 100s at
many locations, while continued low-level moisture transport and
evapotranspiration maintained dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s.
This resulted in peak heat index values of 115 to 120 degrees.

Under performing convection this evening should allow for minimal
cloud cover into Monday morning, allowing another scorching day
across the area. However, a shortwave disturbance rounding the ridge
will drive a surface front southward through the region. Winds
behind the front will shift from southerly to northeasterly,
reducing low-level moisture transport and gradually lowering
dewpoints, but bringing in wildfire smoke with some near-surface
smoke expected to filter in through the day. Little temperature drop
is expected behind the front, in fact, the drier air mass may warm
efficiently during the day as a greater share of the available energy
goes toward sensible heating. High temperatures will again reach the
upper 90s to lower 100s areawide. Dewpoints will vary
considerably across the area, remaining in the upper 70s/low
80s across southwest Iowa while falling into the mid 60s across
northeast Nebraska behind the front. As as result, peak heat
index values are expected to reach 110 to 115 degrees across
southwest Iowa, with values generally near 105 degrees
elsewhere. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with a Heat Advisory in
effect farther north.

Monday evening into early Tuesday, another shortwave disturbance
moving from the Front Range into western Nebraska will initiate a
round of thunderstorms to our west, with activity progressing
eastward. Instability will remain plentiful, though shear is
expected to weaken as the storms approach the forecast area. Even so,
forecast soundings show a favorable wind profile and DCAPE values
near 1250 J/kg, supporting the low-end potential for isolated wind
gusts of 45 to 60 mph if storms are able to maintain themselves into
eastern Nebraska. PoPs currently peak at 15-30%.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The aforementioned shortwave disturbance will dampen the ridge and
bring temperatures down on Tuesday, though highs will still reach
the low 90s and remain slightly above seasonal norms. Dewpoints will
also decrease into the upper 60s/low 70s. A few lingering showers
may continued Tuesday morning before gradually diminishing.

For the remainder of the work week, highs will generally range from
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Additional shortwave disturbances
rounding the ridge will bring periodic precipitation chances.
Confidence continues to increase in a more widespread round of
showers and storms Thursday into Friday as a stronger shortwave
disturbances crosses the northern Plains. PoPs of 60-75% are
currently in place, with the cloud cover keeping highs to the
mid 80s. Potential exists for a few strong to severe storms,
with GEFS and EPS based machine learning guidance painting a
5-15% probability from Nebraska into the Dakotas. We`ll have to
monitor how the details shake out as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle. A
few observations sites northwest of KOFK have dipped to MVFR
visibility due to fog, but this should dissipate soon after
sunrise and is not expected to impact KOFK. A front will make
its way through the area today, switching winds from the south
to the north northeast. Have included a few lines at KOMA given
an abrupt wind shift is expected at the terminal. Some gustiness
of 20 to 25 kts may occur at KOFK behind the front in the
afternoon but should be short lived, and all sites see winds
less than 10 kts for the duration of the period. Some near
surface smoke may affect visibilities at terminals too once they
are behind the front, but uncertainty in regards to when visibility
drops will occur remains tricky to pin point. Finally, there is
a 15 to 30% chance for some showers and storms after 03z at
KOFK and KLNK. Have not included in TAF given low confidence,
but if storms form they could be strong to severe.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-
     055-056.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

974
FXUS63 KGID 271146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of intense heat and humidity, despite the arrival
  of a weak cool front. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for
  the entire forecast area given expectations for max heat
  indices of 105-115 degrees.

- There is a 30-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  this evening and overnight, highest W of the Tri-Cities. There
  is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for some of this activity to
  become severe. Main threat is damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Beyond today: although not truly "cool" by any means, more
  manageable/typical high temps mainly upper 80s-mid 90s look to
  prevail starting Tuesday...ending the need for any additional
  heat headlines.

- There will be occasional showers and thunderstorm chances
  Tuesday through Thursday night as a series of disturbances
  work around a strong upper ridge centered over the S Plains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Main forecast concern is once again the combination of intense
heat and humidity. While some of our W and NW counties may not
get quite as bad as this past weekend...we`re once again off to
a very warm start, and there really hasn`t been much of an air
mass change just yet. A weak cool front will move in from the NW
this morning, but guidance is in decent agreement that
temperatures behind this front will only be a few degrees
cooler. However, any practical sense of "cooling" with this
front will likely be offset by still high low level moisture
that often tends to "pool" along and behind these types of slow-
moving and weak fronts. Also, factor in that today will be the
third day in a row of intense heat, cumulative effects can still
cause impacts - thus the reason for the recent expansion of the
Excessive Heat Warning to include ALL of our forecast area.

Areas immediately along the front this afternoon...which looks
to run from around Lincoln to Superior to Hays...could
experience particularly "brutal" conditions given what should be
almost little to no wind. Winds will be breezy out of the S/SW
ahead of the front, and areas behind the front will see a shift
to 10-15 MPH NErly winds...but along the front winds will be
variable and quite light. As such, WBGT values in these areas
are expected to reach levels in which NO strenuous outdoor
activities in direct sunlight are advised.

One last thing to note on today`s heat/humidity...most models,
even short-term hi-res CAMs...have really struggled with the
amount of evapotranspiration coming off of the crops, but also even
the ambient air temperatures, as well. This may very well
happen again today. Bottom line...we want to emphasize that
today is not one to let your guard down despite what you may see
as "cooler" temperatures on quick glance on a phone app.

As for thunderstorm chances...appears we`re still on track for
at least somewhat better rain chances this evening and
overnight, roughly 30-60% compared to the 20-30% last evening.
Generally expect initial development to occur off to our W along
the Front Range/High Plains this afternoon, then gradually
shift E/SE this evening and overnight. The overall magnitude of
intensity and coverage remains a bit uncertain given rather weak
forcing aloft and still relatively warm mid level temperatures
(700mb temps ~17-18C!). IF activity off to our W can develop
some sort of organization and mesoscale lift (cool pool, MCV,
etc.) then there obviously would be plenty of moisture and
instability for this activity to work with in our area. Timing
and lack of substantial deep layer shear suggests a limited
severe threat that`s likely tied to localized damaging wind
gust potential. The latest SPC convective outlook covers nearly
the entire forecast area with a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
this potential. Finally...while widespread hydro issues are NOT
expected given recent dry, hot weather...some of the heavier
cores tonight could be rather efficient at producing heavy rain
rates of 1-2"/hr. If these occur over relatively urban or flash
flood prone locations, then some brief issues can`t be ruled
out. Highest chances for rain will be over our W third (roughly
along/W of Hwy 183), with gradually decreasing chances with time
tonight further E.

Should actually experience some more substantial/noticeable
heat/humidity relief for Tuesday...though really only back to
"seasonable" levels with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on
Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact
on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture
behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the
northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the
low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an
influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and
cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north
central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to
106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above
110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across
this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect
until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above
mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so
those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska
counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of
reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly
high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties
may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday.
Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to
range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across
the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and
night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The
highest chances will be across western portions of the area
(mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may
become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around
60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move
eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the
upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area.
High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end
of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various
rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night
as upper disturbances move over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: Other than perhaps some 5-6sm VSBY in haze/fog next
couple of hours, VFR conditions are likely through the daytime
hours. Winds will turn to the N, then NE/ENE, this morning.

Tonight: Main aviation impact will be the potential for
scattered showers/storms late this evening, and into the
overnight. Appears the general timing for the terminals will be
mainly after midnight. CIGs should remain VFR above 5K ft, but
could have some brief reductions in VSBYs to MVFR if a heavier
downpour moves overnight. Gusty winds will also be possible in
some of the stronger storms, but this is not currently
explicitly indicated in these TAFs. Given some continued
uncertainty in the overall timing, coverage, and intensity,
opted to maintain the existing PROB30 group for the time being.
Winds outside of storms will be out of the NE/E at around 5-9kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion