Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

190
FXUS63 KOAX 212228
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
528 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and few thunderstorms are expected tonight
  into Friday (70-95% chance). Severe weather is not expected.

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry
  conditions expected for the holiday weekend.

- Our next chance of rain arrives later next week, but there is
  considerable uncertainty in timing and coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Relatively cool and quiet weather is anticipated through this
afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s under partly cloudy
skies. Our next weather system begins to overspread the region
tonight. Widespread rain chances (70-95%) expand across the area
from west to east through Friday. A few thunderstorms remain
possible, especially as a small amount of instability develops
Friday afternoon. No severe weather is anticipated due to the
limited instability. Temperatures remain cooler in the 60s due
to rain and cloud cover.

As this system departs the region this weekend, a warming trend
takes over. Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure
supports increased sunshine and mostly dry weather through the
weekend into early next week. Temperatures climb into the 70s on
Saturday, to near 80 on Sunday, and into the mid 80s on
Memorial Day. Enjoy the beautiful weather!

By the middle to end of next week, forecast guidance begins to
diverge substantially. A large trough is set to move into the
West Coast early next week. The evolution of this feature as it
moves onshore later in the week remains split amongst
ensembles. The timing and location of this feature as it
approaches our area is uncertain at this time. That being said,
expect temperatures in the mid 80s each day with at least a low
(20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms at times,
especially during the afternoon. Eventually, more substantial
changes in the forecast should coincide with the ejection of the
aforementioned trough. Stay tuned as forecast confidence
increases over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR ceilings have worked into KLNK early this evening and will
continue to spread northward into all the terminals through the
remainder of the evening. Rain showers will overspread the
terminals later this evening into Friday morning. Confidence is
high (80% chance) that each terminal will see rain showers
tonight, though the scattered nature of showers may leave some
gaps in coverage and timing. Patchy IFR conditions are possible,
primarily at KOFK and KLNK, under heavier showers. Some
isolated pockets of thunder are possible tonight, but the best
chances come with a broken line of thunderstorms over far
eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon.

Winds will generally remain out of the southeast through the
period, increasing to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts late
Friday morning into the afternoon. Rain chances will clear with
ceilings gradually improving in the final few hours of the
forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

163
FXUS63 KGID 212337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers this evening-Friday morning. Overall
  chances are highest along/northwest of the Tri-Cities.

- Rain accumulations range from 0.10" in the southeast to 0.5-1"
  or more in the northwest.

- Highs climb into the 80s Sunday onwards with scattered, low
  confidence chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This afternoon-Friday...

Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest
Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough
begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to
gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor
instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The
most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the
overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and
northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest
rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that
pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning
hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the
front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid-
late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop
along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway
81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east
of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10"
across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1"
across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble
guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the
area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of
rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across
southeastern portions of the area.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the
low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%)
for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday
afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that
develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak
into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday
evening.

Sunday Onwards....

Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into
early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly
winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves
into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional
chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this
troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details
are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to continue to decrease this evening to
MVFR then IFR. IFR ceilings are expected by 06z. Ceilings are
not expected to improve until the late morning hours. VFR
ceilings will return by 20z. Southeast winds will become more
southerly by 12z then become southwesterly to westerly beginning
around 18z. Rain showers are expected first at KEAR then at KGRI
this evening and will continue off and on through most if not
all of the morning hours on Friday. There is a small chance of a
thunderstorm impacting the terminals as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion