Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

213
FXUS63 KOAX 282329
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances build into the area from the south late this
  afternoon into the evening hours, lingering through Friday
  early afternoon. Lightning will be rare with it.

- Thunderstorm chances develop early Saturday, returning during
  the evening hours, with a few strong wind gusts and hail
  possible across central Nebraska.

- Next week continues the summer-like pattern, with highs in the
  80s and daily rain/weak storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a summer-like pattern,
featuring strong ridging across the central CONUS, a spinning cutoff
low over the Great Basin region, and a negatively-tilted shortwave
funneling moisture northward from the Gulf across the Plains into
Montana. With the major features of the upper pattern being somewhat
steady-state, warm air advection and the movement of the shortwave
through the Plains will be doing the brunt of the weather making
over the next couple of days. Already now, lighter rainfall is
building into south-central Nebraska and northeast Kansas, poised to
continue creeping northward. Despite overcast skies, we`re still
reaching into above-average temperature territory in the 80s while
winds gust intermittently to 20-25 mph. Better rainfall coverage
will build into the area 6 PM into the evening hours, but by no
means will it be a gully washer.

Lingering rain chances and cloud cover will continue through the
overnight hours and into Friday morning, with overnight temperatures
getting bumped up with the latest forecast due to the insulation
from above. Highs tomorrow will be negatively affected by the cloud
cover and lingering rain chances, as we top out in in the 70s and
see those rain chances gradually dissolve during the afternoon hours
once the aforementioned shortwave moves north of the area. Getting a
bit more specific total rainfall amount-wise, areas along and
southwest of a line from Columbus to Lincoln have a greater than 50%
shot at getting half of an inch or more of rainfall by Friday night.
Fortunately, the combination of the warmer pattern and the general
lack of lighting and heavy rainfall should keep outdoor plans from
being cancelled.

Saturday and Beyond:

Chances for lightning increase early Saturday morning, as low-level
convergence above the nocturnal inversion helps scattered storm
activity jump upwards into moderate instability. With effective
parcels cutting off the southeasterly winds at the surface, shear
will be on the lower end, making severe chances quite low. Once we
begin coupling back up after sunrise, those storm chances will
dissipate in favor of a drier afternoon followed by storm
chances moving in from the west from western/central Nebraska,
where severe wind/hail chances are focused.

Sunday leans drier compared to Saturday, with the main cutoff low
driving the activity to the west shifts northward and that better
stream of moisture into it shifts in tandem. Large-scale global
models favor far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and points northward
for light precipitation with temperatures shifting back into the 80s
compared to the couple of cooler days preceding it. Those similar
temperatures will carry forward through much of next week, with the
high pressure trying to hold strong over the north-central CONUS,
gradually flattening out over the course of the week. Rain
chances will also be a nearly daily occurrence, with any
showers and storms behaving as they would in the middle of
summer -- popping up along areas of enhanced moisture
convergence before gently being steered through by the mean flow
and along theta-e axes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions to start, but MVFR ceilings expected to move in
overnight into Friday morning as showers become more widespread.
Some IFR ceilings with MVFR visibility also look possible with
some of the heavier showers, particularly at LNK. Rain should
continue into late morning before dissipating a bit. However,
additional spotty showers and storms are expected to develop in
the afternoon, though confidence in one moving over a TAF site
is too low to include mention. Guidance continues to suggest TS
chances remain relatively low through the period, but not 0,
with the highest potential being with the spotty development
Friday afternoon. Otherwise, winds will remain southeasterly,
with gusts of 20-25 kts building through the day Friday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

894
FXUS63 KGID 282203
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
503 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The widespread showers with a few isolated storms this
  afternoon and evening will continue off-and-on through the
  overnight hours. Precipitation will be expected to come to an
  end Friday morning to early afternoon, clearing from the
  southwest to the northeast.

- A few scattered storms will be possible Friday night and
  Saturday afternoon to night (30-70% chances, best potential to
  the northeast). A Marginal risk of severe weather (level 1/5)
  covers the full forecast area Saturday.

- At least a small chance for precipitation returns each day
  through the forecast period (though next Thursday). Details
  regarding timing, location and severe potential remain limited
  at this time.

- Daily high temperatures are still expected to range the 70s
  and 80s this weekend and much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026



Near Term...Tonight through Friday Evening..

Widespread showers with an isolated storm or two, will continue to
cover the area through the rest of the evening and overnight hours
tonight. Generally speaking, precipitation rates, though off and on
at times, should continue to increase through the night as the more
concentrated precipitation bands migrate northward (currently
resining over north central Kansas). The High-resolution short-range
model guidance seems to be in general agreement that these
widespread showers will scatter out across the Friday morning to
early afternoon hours. These showers/storms will clear out in the
order in which they arrived, clearing from the southwest to the
northeast. In total, around 0.2-0.5" of precipitation can be
expected to fall north of I-80, with 0.3-0.7" possible across
Nebraska locations south of I-80. Precipitation amounts across north
central Kansas will likely range between 0.5" to just over 1".


Though much of the afternoon and evening hours on Friday will be dry,
overcast skies will still stick around the area, keeping highs from
exceeding the 70s to low 80s. Winds will stay out of the southeast
tonight and Friday, lightening across the overnight hours. During
the afternoon, speeds will return back to a steady 10-15MPH breeze
with gusts up to 20-25MPH. Aloft, a closed low centered over the
California/Great Basin region will continue to keep south to
southeasterly flow locked in place across the next several days as it
continues to block the west to east upper-level flow. Meanwhile, a
positively tilted ridge axis extending from the Southeastern U.S. up
to the Northern Plains, has been channeling the mid-to-upper level
flow from the Southwest U.S. up to and around this Northern Plains
stretching ridge. An embedded shortwave trough, riding this flow
north across the Central Plains, has been responsible for stirring up
the widespread showers across the area today.


Short Term...Friday night through Sunday....

Despite a break in precipitation Friday afternoon to evening, a few
scattered storms may redevelop overnight Friday. The current forecast
brings a 30-65% chance for storms overnight Friday with the best
confidence concentrated to the north and east. These storms are not
likely to be severe. A slightly better potential for storms (35-70%,
greatest to the northeast) will come again Saturday afternoon to
night as another shortwave disturbance ejects out from the Rockies.
The presence of a slightly more robust nocturnal low-level jet with
better instability (2,000-4,000J/kg of MUCAPE) could bring a slight
potential for a few stronger to marginally severe developing storms
(Marginal Severe Weather Outlook...level 1/5). Yet another round of
storms will be possible Sunday, though more uncertainty in regards
to location and coverage keeps the potential slightly more limited
for now (25-50% chances).

Highs through Sunday will raise up to the 80s as the overcast skies
begin to clear. Winds will also show little change as directions
continue to maintain their southeasterly orientation. Aloft, the end
of week Western U.S. low will begin to weaken and lift northward
some. This will shift the upper-level pattern away from meridional
to more zonal flow. The current wet and stormy weekend conditions,
however, may stick around for a few more days as back to back
passages of embed shortwave disturbances take their swings at the
Central Plains.


Long Term...Monday and Beyond....

Daily precipitation chances will continue on into next week given
the potential for a few additional passing shortwave disturbances.
With lower forecast confidence in the extended period, specifics
regarding the location and timing of precipitation or even the
potential for severe weather remain limited at this time. Though at
least a small chance of precipitation returns each day through next
Thursday (15-30%), some global ensemble forecast guidance is
beginning to hint at the transition to an expansive ridging upper-
level pattern sometime near the middle to end of next week. If this
actualizes, drier conditions with warming temperatures will be
favored for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers persist tonight through most of Friday. The
overall t-storm threat remains fairly low (below 30%), although
a few isolated storms could develop, mainly Friday afternoon.

Ceilings will continue to slowly decrease this evening into
tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected by around 06Z, and could dip
to IFR by 12Z Friday. Conditions then improve from west to east
during the afternoon on Friday.

Overall winds remain fairly light through the period, but
southeast winds may gust near 20kts again Friday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion