Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

592
FXUS63 KOAX 092103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
303 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (20 to 40%) for rain/light snow across southeast
  Nebraska and southwest Iowa tonight.

- Snow showers (30 to 50% chance) during Saturday afternoon
  across much of the area. Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph
  will lead to visibility reductions with snow showers.

- Warm temperatures in the 40s and 50s expected for the first
  half of next week. Precipitation chances (15 to 30%) return
  for the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Remainder of Today into Tonight

The plentiful sunshine that started the day is quickly coming to an
end as out next weather system approaches the region. Otherwise, it
was a pretty seasonal day in the 30s and 40s. High clouds will
continue to overspread the area into this evening as a shortwave
trough lifts northeast from the southern Great Plains. This
shortwave remains mainly south of the region tonight, but portions
of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa may be clipped. There
remains a low (20-40%) chance of light rain and snow across these
areas. Precipitation will be light, so little to no accumulation is
expected.

Saturday

A somewhat complex forecast arrives on Saturday. A stronger
shortwave deepens and merges with Friday`s system over the Upper
Midwest. As this occurs, a tightening pressure gradient results in
gusty winds into the afternoon. This deepening system pushes a
reinforcing cold front through the region also. Lapse rates should
be fairly steep along and ahead of the front with enough moisture to
help generate snow showers across northeast Nebraska. Snow showers
will continue to sag southeast with the front through the afternoon.
Any showers weaken and dissipate by evening across southern portions
of the area. The best chance for snow will be focused over northeast
and west-central Nebraska, but a low chance of light snow can be
expected elsewhere. With winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph, any snow
showers will cause visibility reductions. Near white-out conditions
could materialize in the heaviest snow showers along with a quick
dusting of snow. Slick spots may also develop with the fluffy nature
of the snow, easily allowing for blowing snow across area roads. A
snow squall can not be ruled out as well (10-20% chance). Total snow
amounts are expected to be light.

Travel impacts are not going to be constant, but may rapidly change
with the passage of the cold front from north to south through the
afternoon on Saturday. Leave extra time to get to your destination
and slow down in snow showers if you have travel plans on Saturday.

Outside of snow, temperatures will remain near and below freezing
for most of the region.

Sunday into Next Week

By Sunday, surface high pressure should already be moving off to the
east allowing for the return of southerly winds. Temperatures are
expected to warm up accordingly. Temperatures in the 40s will
quickly melt off any lingering snow with sunny and dry conditions
through the afternoon. To start the first half of next week, modest
mid-level ridging helps to push temperatures back above normal.
Widespread 50s to as high as the low 60s overspread the region
Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave trough deepens over the Upper
Midwest by Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will move through the
region because of this, but temperatures remain warm despite the
front. That said, gusty northwest winds are likely behind the cold
front. The colder airmass finally overspreads the region by
Wednesday, but afternoon temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
are still anticipated. There is a chance of rain and snow with the
front as well, but confidence is low at this time (10-20% chance).
Another system quickly arrives heading into Thursday and Friday,
increasing precipitation chances further. A 15-35% chance of rain
and snow is currently forecast for the second half of next week.
Temperatures remain cooler, similar to Wednesday, as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. North
winds will continue through this afternoon, but speeds may
increase slightly. Winds weaken and shift towards the northwest
tonight. High clouds move through the region later this
afternoon through tonight between 12-25 kft. This is in
association with a passing disturbance to the south of the
region. Any rain or snow with this system is expected to remain
well south of all terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

983
FXUS63 KGID 092203
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
403 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potent upper level low continues to slide east near the KS/OK
  border this afternoon/evening...which will keep the potential
  for light snow across mainly our north central KS counties
  into this evening. Any snow accumulations are expected to be
  light...ending by mid-late evening.

- For most, the upcoming weekend is dry. During the day on
  Saturday, areas along/north of a line from Loup City to York
  will have the potential for some light snow. Not expecting
  notable accumulations, but during the midday-afternoon hours,
  any snow will have the potential to be accompanied by NW wind
  gusts of 25-30 MPH.

- The forecast for the new work week is overall dry, but will be
  monitoring trends for the potential for a couple of weak
  disturbances/light snow mainly mid-late week. Above normal
  highs in the 50s-near 60 expected for Mon-Tue, cooling back
  more into the 40s Wed-Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Currently on into tonight...

Light precipitation has continued to inch northward into our
north central KS counties today...a trend that will continue
on into the evening hours. The driver of this precipitation is a
compact area of mid-upper level low pressure...shown by upper
air and satellite data to be gradually working its way through
the western KS/OK border area. This system is embedded in larger
upper level troughing extending through the central CONUS into
central Canada...between sharper ridging along the West Coast
and broader ridging along the East Coast. If anything, this
precipitation ended up creeping a bit further north than several
models showed...but the brunt of snow accumulation will be
closer to and south of I-70 in KS, but some light amounts are
not out of the question for our north central KS counties
(especially the bottom row of Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell).
Thankfully the overall surface pattern is on the weaker side, so
while winds will remain generally northwesterly through this
event, speeds are mainly topping out around 10-15 MPH. High
temps today for some of the area look to end up a few degrees
short...the plentiful cloud cover and precip being further north
not helping things...3PM obs are right at freezing in the far
south, to right around 40 in the far NNW.

For this evening and tonight...models are in good agreement
showing this upper level low filling/weakening as it continues
working it way ENE across KS..with precipitation coming to an
end mid-late evening. The rest of the overnight hours remain
dry.

This weekend...

For most of the forecast area, the upcoming weekend is expected
to be dry. If precipitation does occur, it`d be across NNE
portions of the area, during the daytime hours on Saturday.
While we have today`s upper level low crossing to our south,
another disturbance is working its way SSE through central
Canada, eventually looking to end up over northern MN by sunrise
Saturday. Models are in good agreement showing that while the
upper low itself well NE of the forecast area during the day
Saturday, sliding toward the Great Lakes/Midwest...there will
also be the potential for a narrow corridor of light
precipitation nosing in from the NNW along the exit region of a
strong upper level jet streak. Occurring on the backside of the
main upper low, there`s not a ton of moisture to work with, thus
not expecting notable amounts (snow would be primary precip
type)...and there are some differences between models with
whether this forcing even makes if far enough south to impact
the forecast area, so chances remain low at 20-30 percent. The
area with those chances is mainly along/north of a line from
Loup City to York.

Though not expecting notable amounts...any snow that does fall
will be accompanied by gusty winds, especially during the
midday-afternoon hours. As the upper level pushes east, it will
drive a surface cold front south through the forecast
area...and while not bringing a notable change as far as
temperatures go, it will bring a reinforcing shot of NWrly
winds, which may be gusting 25-30 MPH. As far as high temps go,
didn`t make big changes, if anything ended up with more of a
gradient from SW (maybe near 50 degrees) to NE (mid 30s).
There`s some lingering uncertainty with those highs.

Dry conditions are forecast area-wide for Sunday, with models
showing more lower-amplitude NWrly flow in the upper levels as
that main low pushes further away from the region. Expecting
more sun...and lighter winds (closer to 10-15 MPH) which turn
more westerly as high pressure settles into the Srn Plains. With
the airmass in the region warming, along with the sun/westerly
winds, expecting a bump up in highs...with mid 40s east to mid
50s west currently forecast.

New work week...

As we get into the new work week...the forecast is currently an
overall dry one, but there are spots where some precipitation
chances may end up being needed. Currently not looking at any
significant winter systems...models are in pretty good agreement
showing varying degrees of northwesterly flow in the upper
levels across the region. The week starts out with lower
amplitude flow...but with high pressure remaining fairly well
anchored over the West Coast, disturbances digging south out of
Canada and into the central/eastern portions of the CONUS will
bring the potential for a more amplified pattern mid-late week.
Not out of the question that a couple of these disturbances
could result in precipitation at least clipping portions of the
forecast area...enough differences remain that forecast didn`t
stray from the NBM. At this point, any disturbances look like
they`d be on the quick-hitting, lighter side of things. We`ll
see how models trend in the coming days.

As far as temperatures go, expecting above normal highs to
return to star the week, with both Monday and Tuesday forecast
to reach the mid 50s-near 60 (normal for this time of year is
mid 30s to right around 40). With the potential for upper level
disturbances and accompanying sfc cold fronts mid-late week,
forecast highs drop back more into the 40s...but like
precipitation chances, confidence in highs that far out is not
overly high at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...the better
potential for lower ceilings and precipitation is expected to
remain focused south of the terminal areas this afternoon and
evening. Expecting plenty of cloud cover through early-mid
evening, with clearing skies then into the pre-dawn hours.
Another batch of clouds is expected to slide south around
sunrise through the end of the period...those ceiling are
expected to remain VFR, but will see how guidance trends.
Expecting the current NNW winds to continue through mid-late
afternoon, with speeds around 10-15 MPH...turning more WNWrly
through the overnight hours tonight, then back again more NWrly
by mid- morning Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion