Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

334
FXUS63 KOAX 091026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A decaying line of storms may bring gusty winds to portions of
  the area early Tuesday morning. Severe storms with damaging
  winds are unlikely, but not impossible (5% chance).

- Hot and humid Tuesday with heat indices of 100-107 in many
  locations. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue throughout much of the week
  into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times,
  including on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

There were a couple areas of thunderstorms of note  this
evening. The first was across eastern KS in vicinity of a
shortwave trough in the area. These storms will remain to our
south and continue diving southeast along the instability
gradient and on the nose of moisture transport in that area.
However, some 50 mph gusts were being reported in southeast NE
as some light showers on the northern periphery of these storms
were moving through. Meanwhile, a second shortwave trough was
pushing across northeast CO and western NE, with associated
severe storms through much of those areas. A few pieces of
afternoon guidance (i.e. several runs of the HRRR) suggested
those storms continue eastward across NE and enter the forecast
area by 4 AM, bringing strong to severe winds and maybe a little
hail to the area. However, most newer guidance this evening
tends to taper it off quite a bit before it gets here, with very
little, if any rain even falling in the area. Now, looking at
the environment ahead of the storms, SPC mesoanalysis shows
1500-2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE with plenty of strong deep
layer/effective shear for storm organization. However, 0-3 km
shear is notably weak (10-15 kts) and will be line parallel, so
tend to think it will gust out prior to arriving with maybe just
brief gusty winds in our area (30 mph or so). Furthermore, low
level moisture transport should be choked off by the storms to
our south, giving us that much less forcing. So in the end,
think it may hold together a little longer than some guidance
says given the aforementioned instability and deep layer shear
in place, but thinking it will be pretty outflow dominant by the
time it reaches us and severe winds will be unlikely by then.
We`ll say a 5% chance of severe storms for us.

For Tuesday, upper level ridging will build in during the day and
should lead to temporary quiet, but hot and humid weather. The one
thing to keep an eye on regarding the heat is if there`s any
lingering debris clouds from any overnight/morning storms that keep
us a little cooler. Latest guidance has trended a degree or two
lower for high temperatures, but still looking at temperatures in
the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints climbing into the 70s. This will
yield heat indices at or above 105 in many locations and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect for most of the area. Given the hot,
humid airmass in place, there will be plenty of instability for a
severe weather threat. However, most solutions keep us capped
through the afternoon with the primary severe weather threat holding
off until the evening hours when a shortwave trough passes through,
mostly to our west, and a line of strong to severe storms clips
northeast NE. However, there are a few pieces of guidance that do
suggest some storm development by late afternoon in our area (e.g.
09.00Z RRFS A). If this occurs, shear profiles would suggest
potential for supercells capable of all hazards.

Wednesday will remain warm, but most of those 70s dewpoints should
push off to the east, leaving us with temperatures in the lower to
mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to right around 100 for a
few spots. A cold front will also push through and could lead to
additional strong to severe storm chances Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Upper level troughing will build in behind the cold front with
temperatures on Thursday falling into the lower to mid 80s. The
trough then flattens out, leaving us under zonal flow through the
weekend. Surface high pressure should keep us dry on Friday, but
additional frontal passages and bits of shortwave energy will start
sliding through Saturday into next week while a larger scale trough
digs into the area Sunday into Monday. This will also bring some
cooler weather with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
increase out of the south today, reaching speeds of 15 to 20
kts, with gusts up to 30 kts. A few spotty showers and storms
could develop this afternoon. A better chance for storms will
move through the region this evening and overnight. The best
chance for a strong to severe storms currently looks to be
between 00-06Z, with the greatest risk near the KOFK area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ011-012-015-017-018-031>034-042>045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

526
FXUS63 KGID 091148
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, humid, and breezy today before another chance of severe
  thunderstorms arrives late afternoon into the evening.

- There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (level 3 of 5)
  Risk across the region. Damaging wind looks to be the primary
  threat, with a somewhat lesser risk for large hail.

- Will have one more chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
  evening and overnight, mainly for our portions of south
  central Nebraska. Large hail is the primary threat.

- Finally a quieter and eventually cooler pattern moves in later
  this week and continues into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A few lingering showers/storms will dissipate this early morning
and leave us with hot, humid, and breezy conditions by early
afternoon. South winds 10-20 MPH and gusts 25-30 MPH will
provide some modest relief from the humidity, and latest
forecast heat indices have come down a degree, or two, to
generally around a couple deg on either side of 100F. This falls
short of our traditional heat advisory criteria, and not overly
inclined to bend it since it`s just one day and there will be a
breeze. Nonetheless, probably going to be the warmest and most
humid day so far this summer.

Attention then turns to our next chance for thunderstorms slated
to arrive late this afternoon or into the evening. There remains
a bit of uncertainty on the overall coverage of storms, but
latest CAMs are in reasonably good agreement on the general evolution
and timing. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop up and
down the High Plains by mid afternoon - with plenty of upper
support coming in the way of one or two shortwave disturbances
embedded within active SW upper flow. The strongest shortwave
and upper forcing looks to focus from northern Nebraska into the
Dakotas, so expect this activity to quickly grow upscale into a
fairly solid line as it moves E/NE during the late afternoon and
evening. It`s a bit uncertain where the southern portion of this
line tracks, but some of the recent trends suggest this could
remain just N of our local forecast area.

00Z HREF suggests another, largely separated, area of focused
development from SW KS into the central/southern High Plains,
within a very hot and deeply mixed boundary layer. This activity
may be a bit more scattered in nature owing to slightly weaker
upper forcing, but should quickly shift NE during the late
afternoon and evening as 30-40kt mid level jet streak
overspreads the western edge of a large, strongly unstable warm
sector. Deep inverted-v profiles and large surface T-Td spreads
argue for a mainly damaging wind threat. As mentioned above,
coverage with this activity remains a bit more uncertain, but if
cold pools can develop and merge, then several quick-moving
clusters/line segments with 60-70 MPH wind gusts will be
possible. Deep layer shear vectors will be marginally supportive
of some supercells (0-6km bulk shear ~25-30kt), and so could
see some large hail, as well, but should be a secondary threat
to the damaging straight line winds. The greatest risk for
severe will be 5PM to midnight (perhaps only 10-11PM) and should
see much quieter conditions for the second half of the night.

Wednesday looks to be fairly quiet during the daytime hours
thanks to a relatively early passage of a weak cold front. The
AM-early aftn frontal passage means the primary zone of low
level convergence and storm development will focus further E,
roughly along the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will be a few
degrees lower than today - and less humid, but the initial
surge of cooler air is fairly weak. Speaking of drier air,
models surge relative humidity values as low as 15-20 percent
into areas roughly along and W of Hwy 283 by late afternoon.
Winds appear somewhat more marginal, but still breezy with gusts
around 25 MPH. We`re still considering these areas as having
fuels "conditionally favorable" for large fire growth, so may
ultimately need a Red Flag Warning depending on how things play
out tonight. Unfortunately, some of these areas have been the
driest over the past 7 days, and I don`t think storms tonight
will have much moisture with them.

Finally...touching briefly on Wednesday night`s storm
potential: several models develop one more round of
thunderstorms in this recent stretch of active weather, this
time largely of the elevated variety, driven by a very strong
40-50kt low level jet. This round may be nothing to sneeze at
given potential MUCAPE values of 2-3K J/kg, steep mid level
lapse rates, and strong effective deep layer shear (40-45kt+).
This setup would favor elevated supercells with primarily a
large to very large (2"+) hail threat that would probably focus
more in Nebraska than Kansas. This round looks to be largely
during the overnight period (after 10PM) Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Convection from this morning has left an outflow boundary draped
across the area. Meanwhile, elevated convection is already
ongoing near LBF and additional cumulus is developing near and
along the remnant outflow. Near-term CAMs came into agreement
this morning that the primary area of redevelopment will be in
western portions of the area (possibly between McCook and
Holdrege) in the 3-5pm timeframe. The strongest convection is
then expected to push southeastward through the late afternoon
and evening along the axis of greatest instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE). Deep-layer shear is also quite strong, with effective
shear possibly approaching 50kts at times. Given the expected
storm mode (multicell clusters merging into line segments), the
primary severe threat is wind, although severe hail is also
expected in some areas. Output from the CAMs would indicate that
thunderstorm wind gusts of 70-80 MPH are possible. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, although the higher threat appears to
be to our east as the QLCS becomes more organized.

In addition to the severe threat, CAMs are indicating that
these storms will be very efficient rainfall producers...which
isn`t surprising with PWAT values near 1.7" per mesoanalysis.
The RRFS and HRRR indicate potential 2"/hr rainfall rates and
localized totals of 3-4". As such, a Flood Watch was issued for
portions of far southern Nebraska and north central Kansas.

Storms are expected to exit the area by around 10pm, but
additional convection from the High Plains may roll in later
overnight. Given the timing, these storms should not be as
intense, but some strong to severe storms do remain possible
into the early morning hours of Tuesday. This is a relatively
new trend, so confidence in specifics remains fairly low.

Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of the year so far in
many areas. Aided by a strong southerly wind (gusts 30-40 MPH),
high temperatures in the 90s and even low 100s are expected.
Heat index values may briefly approach 105 degrees in eastern
zones where dewpoints are higher.

The daytime should remain mostly dry, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across the area
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in
coverage remains uncertain, but convective parameters (3-4000
J/kg MLCAPE and 30kt 0-6km shear) would be favorable for a least
a few severe storms.

Wednesday will trend a bit cooler, and the main threat area for
storms will shift to the south/east. That said, a few storms
cannot be totally ruled out Wednesday evening into the
overnight.

With the active weather in the near-term, not much time was
spent on the longer-range forecast. After a break late this
week, ensembles bring t-storm chances back to the area over the
weekend and into next week. Models also favor a general
"cooling" trend this weekend into early next week. Sunday and
Monday could be feature highs in the 70s...which is about 10
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: May see a few hour period of SCT to BKN CIGs around
1500-2000 ft work in from the S 14Z-17Z. Otherwise, expect VFR
through 00Z with breezy S winds gusting around 25kt for the
afternoon.

Tonight: Main concerns will be scattered thunderstorms with
gusty winds, along with low level wind shear (LLWS) from a
strong low level jet (LLJ). Main timing of storm potential is
roughly 02Z to 05Z, give or take an hour. Flt cat should remain
VFR, but any storms will have potential for wind gusts of at
least 40kt. A strong 40-50kt LLJ is forecast to ramp up around
02-03Z and likely persist through the remainder of the night.
Surface winds outside of storms will be breezy out of the S.

Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion