Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

660
FXUS63 KOAX 271735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel
  impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The
  highest chances will be in far northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa where there is a 50-60% chance of at least an
  inch of snow.

- Travel impacts will become more widespread Saturday as snow
  overspreads the area and a few places see some light icing. In
  addition, gusty northwest winds will lead to some blowing and
  drifting snow, including into Saturday evening after snow
  ends. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of the
  area.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday`s system, with highs mostly
  in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens
  through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Pretty quiet and seasonably cool across the region early this
morning as we were under northwest flow aloft with surface high
pressure building in. Temperatures as of 4 AM were in the teens
to lower 20s. The quiet weather will stick around during the
day with temperatures topping out in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Attention then turns to our much-talked-about snow chances
Friday and into the weekend. The system that will be responsible
is currently sitting off the Pacific Northwest coast and should
start to move onshore this evening. As the shortwave trough
starts to approach the Rockies Friday, a surface low is progged
to spin up over WY and sink southward into CO by Friday
afternoon. Southeasterly flow and warm air/moisture advection
will ramp up ahead of the surface low with a band of low to mid
level frontogenesis developing across SD into northeast NE and
western IA by late morning/early afternoon. There will be some
dry air to overcome, so it might take a bit for precipitation to
reach the ground, but eventually expect a band of snow to set
up in this area in the afternoon, with accumulations largely
confined to areas northeast of Norfolk to Omaha line through 6
PM. Most impacts from this band will likely be outside of our
area, but places in Knox, Wayne, Thurston, and Monona counties
could see around 1".

As the southeasterly flow continues and the actual shortwave
starts to push in Friday night, precipitation will become more
widespread with rain in the south, snow in the north, and a
brief mix and potential for light icing in between. Some of the
smaller scale details still need to be worked out, including how
quickly we`re able to saturate and what the low level
temperature profiles look like. Current consensus suggests a
50-80% chance of precip northeast of the Norfolk/Omaha line by
midnight and a 20-50% chance southwest. After midnight, those
chances jump into the 70-90+% range area-wide. Now as for the
temperature profiles and precip type, still some minor
differences in surface low track and strength of low level warm
air advection. Most guidance suggests the low will track roughly
along the KS/OK border Saturday morning and push northeast into
MO by Saturday afternoon. Even small wobbles in this track will
make some pretty significant differences in precip type in
southern portions of the forecast area. In addition, some
guidance (e.g. 27.06Z NAM and 27.03Z RAP) suggests much stronger
warm air advection around 925 and 850 mb when compared to other
guidance. As a result, those models have a pretty deep
isothermal layer aloft that is just above freezing, while
surface temperatures remain near or below freezing in some
areas. Consequently, once precipitation develops, it would
likely be liquid and could lead to some light ice accumulation
before the entire column cools and we switch over to snow. While
there isn`t much guidance that shows this (10-20% chance of
occurring) , it is worth noting the potential for a light glaze
of ice developing before snow falls, especially as I-80 looks to
be squarely in the middle of this area.

Instead, the more likely scenario is that precipitation north
of I- 80 starts and stays as snow, while we see a "clean"
transition from rain to snow south of I-80 through late Saturday
morning into the afternoon as much colder air moves in. In
fact, that colder air could cause some of that rainfall on the
roads to "flash freeze" and lead to some icing as we switch over
to snow. So really, whether we see true freezing rain that
freezes as it hits the ground might be moot and either way a
thin layer of ice develops ahead of the snow for some. In
addition, winds will pick up and become northwesterly through
the day as the surface low passes by to our south and east.
Expect gusts mostly in the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts
hitting 40 mph. It currently looks like the strongest winds will
arrive as the heaviest snow exits, so that should help a little
bit from a blowing snow/poor visibility standpoint. However,
the winds will be strong enough that blowing/drifting snow will
continue even after snowfall ends, which will lead to longer
cleanup times. Snow should completely exit east by midnight
Saturday night with winds tapering off shortly thereafter.
Currently expect final snowfall totals of 4- 7+ inches near and
northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line with higher amounts as you
go farther into Iowa. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for
these areas. To the southwest, it`ll be more in the 1-3" range,
again with that potential for some light icing. Again, still
some details that need to be worked out that could have large
impacts on snowfall totals, including temperatures, system
track, exact start time, rain to snow transition time, so make
sure to monitor the forecast, especially if you have travel
plans. Regardless, it looks like there will be travel impacts in
much of the area Friday night through Saturday.

Once the system exits, we`ll be even colder, with highs on
Sunday and Monday in the teens to mid 20s and lows through
Tuesday morning in the single digits to lower teens. While winds
look relatively light, even a slight breeze will lead to sub-
zero wind chills these mornings. Temperatures should start to
creep back up into 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Regarding
additional precip chances, there`s still quite a bit of spread
in guidance in exact timing and track, but it looks like another
weaker system will move somewhere through the Plains late
Sunday night or Monday. Some solutions have associated
precipitation moving directly through the forecast area while
others have it staying almost completely north or completely
south. So forecast confidence on this particular system is low,
with consensus giving us about a 20-30% chance of seeing any
snow with it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions start out a quiet TAF period, with winds
generally out of the northwest aside from KLNK, which should
follow suit soon. Winds will remain light through the overnight
hours, gradually becoming southeasterly, with gusts increasing
towards the latter few hours of the period. Gusts just beyond
the TAF period will ramp up to 25-30 kts at their peak.
Otherwise, we`re tracking snow chances that could materialize at
KOFK (25% chance) late Friday morning into the afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this
time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015-017-018-032>034.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NEZ031-043>045-052-053.
IA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for IAZ043-055-056.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for IAZ069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

972
FXUS63 KGID 271723
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather for Thanksgiving. Increasing winds on Friday,
  with only a few flurries.

- Precipitation returns late Friday night as a mixture of rain
  and freezing rain. This transitions to snow as temperatures
  crash Saturday morning. Area roads may become slick.

- Areas northeast of a line from Ord to grand Island to Geneva
  have a 30 to 50 percent chance of seeing over 4" of snow.
  Areas further southwest may only see a dusting to around 1".

- Strong northwest winds (gusts over 40 MPH possible) will lead
  to blowing snow through the day Saturday.

- There is a low chance (20%) for light snow again Monday,
  although this is not expected to be as impactful.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The primary change overnight was to introduce freezing rain to
the forecast for late Friday night. Many deterministic models
(NAM, ECMWF, NAMnest, RAP, HRRR) continue to hint at a period of
rain and freezing rain before colder air arrives Saturday
morning. It is uncertain exactly where the the "line" between
rain and freezing rain will occur, but right now the most likely
area for freezing rain is along or just north of I-80.
Subsurface temperatures remain above freezing (around 40
degrees per the Nebraska Mesonet), but many roads (especially
bridges) may still ice up even before snow begins Saturday
morning.

Precipitation should transition to all-snow around or shortly
after sunrise on Saturday. The heaviest snow is expected 6am to
noon on Saturday, gradually tapering off and ending in the
afternoon or early evening.

Snow totals have not changed dramatically, although there
continues to be quite a spread amongst deterministic/ensemble
guidance. Some models (namely the NAM and NAMnest) produce just
a dusting for most of the area, while many global
models show a large swath of 2-4" (or more) over eastern parts
of the area. What remains consistent is that northeastern
portions of the area will be most favored to see impactful snow
accumulation. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect further
northeast where there is higher confidence in 4-5" snow totals.

Forecast wind speeds have decreased a bit, but gusts around 40
MPH are still more than sufficient to produce blowing snow are
still sufficient to produce blowing snow. If trends continue, a
additional winter headlines will likely be issued in the coming
days due to a combination of ice, snow, and blowing snow.

Long story short, Saturday is not a great day for travel through
central and eastern Nebraska. If you must travel, be prepared
and check back often for the latest forecast.

Sunday is favored to be dry (and cold). The system for Sunday
night into Monday continues to look rather weak, with only minor
additional snowfall accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are sitting below their climatological
normals, in the upper 30s to low 40s. A passing disturbance brings a
chance for sprinkles/flurries this evening southwest of the Tri-
Cities, but dry air near the surface will inhibit/prevent
accumulations. Lows tonight drop into the mid teens to mid 20s under
mostly cloudy skies.

Thanksgiving...

Overall, Thanksgiving Day looks to be quiet weather-wise as the area
sits under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 40s and partly
to mostly sunny skies.

Friday and Saturday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Friday ahead of an
approaching trough. Highs on Friday range from the upper 30s across
northeastern portions of the area to the upper 40s across the
southwest. Southerly winds will be breezy, gusting 25-30mph. Models
remain consistent in keeping the initial wave of precipitation
northeast of the area, resulting in dry weather during the
daytime hours on Friday.

This quickly changes Friday night as the trough and surface low move
into the Plains. The low will be centered over Kansas Friday night-
Saturday morning, with a warm front residing along the NE/KS border.
PoPs increase after midnight as precipitation fills in around
the low. As it does, cold air wraps into the system with a
transition from rain to snow Saturday morning. This could result
in a brief period of mixed precipitation, and could result in
slick roads when combined with dropping temperatures. Winds
gusts quickly ramp Saturday morning along the backside of the
low. Northwest winds gusting 35-45mph are expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday. Gusty winds combined with any falling
snow will result in poor visibility for those
outdoors/traveling. Snow ends from west to east late Saturday
morning-evening as the system moves into the Midwest. Most of
the area will see a dusting to an inch of snow. Eastern-
Northeastern portions of the area are most likely to see 1" or
more of snowfall, with the least accumulations west of Highway
183. Given the holiday weekend and increased travel it`s worth
repeating that those traveling on Saturday will experience poor
visibility in falling snow.

Uncertainties:

The biggest uncertainties with the forecast are how quickly
precipitation wraps around the low, and how much snowfall will occur
across eastern portions of the area. The high and low end scenarios
for precipitation coverage can be seen well when comparing the
GFS/NAM to the ECMWF/GDPS. The 12z GFS/NAM show light rain/snow
Friday night-Saturday morning. A band of heavier snow then develops
during the mid morning hours on Saturday across eastern/northeastern
portions of the area which exits the area Saturday afternoon. This
scenario would result in most of the forecast area seeing less than
an inch of snow, with 1" possible mainly along/east of Highway 81.
The heavier solution as shown by the 12z ECMWF/GDPS would see a band
of heavier snow develop by sunrise and be further west. This would
result in more widespread chances to see 1" of snow, with far
eastern portions of the area seeing 2-3" of snow. It`s also worth
noting that GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles have shown a gradual westward
shift in the chance for 3" of snow (10-20% chance along/east of
Highway 81). There is still plenty of time for things to change, so
keep a close eye on the forecast, especially for those traveling on
Saturday.

Sunday Onwards....

Cold air will be in place over the area Sunday morning, with lows in
the single digits to low teens and wind chill values near to below
zero! Highs on Sunday only climb into the 20s. The next shortwave
moves into the plains Sunday night Monday. Models continue to show
that any snow that does fall with this system will remain light (a
dusting), and be most likely along/south of the NE-KS border. Sub-
zero wind chills are possible again Monday morning, with highs once
again confined to the 20s. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with
highs climbing above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. FEW-SCT skies will
become BKN-OVC tonight as mid-level clouds move into the area.
Late in the TAF period, ceilings drop to around 050. North-
northwest winds shift to the north-northeast this afternoon, and
become light and variable overnight as winds shift to the
southeast. Southeast winds of 10-15kts, gusting around 20kts are
expected during the late morning hours on Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion