Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

083
FXUS63 KOAX 202316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
616 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be warm again on Friday, and even warmer on
  Saturday. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 90s across
  much of the area, and the current forecast is exceeding
  record temperatures at several locations.

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today through
  Sunday. The strongest combination of very dry air and gusty
  winds is likely to occur Saturday afternoon into early
  evening.

- Strong winds follow Saturday`s heat, with northerly gusts
  increasing to 30-40 mph Sunday morning before slowly
  diminishing through the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the dominating
high pressure mid/upper ridge centered over the western half of the
CONUS that has been driving extremely warm and increasingly dry
conditions over Great Plains. Temperatures at the surface have
already pushed into the mid-to-upper 70s and even lower 80s today,
with it only being a matter of time when we shatter records the 78-
81 degree records at Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk. Winds have been
slow to shift northwesterly so far today, keeping relatively gentle
speeds through tomorrow morning. Along the same line of thinking,
the relatively light winds and dewpoints still in the 30s today have
limited fire danger to very high. Extremely dry air is in place
aloft, which continues mix to the surface and drop dewpoints
throughout the day, setting the stage for tomorrow`s forecast.

Saturday and Sunday:

The main concern of the forecast develops Saturday, headlined
dangerous fire weather and by heat that has only occurred a
handful of times in March. By Saturday morning, the low-level
thermal ridge that had been sticking just west of the area is
expected to broaden and spread eastward across the forecast
area. At the same time, forecast soundings quickly develop a
bone-dry and well-mixed character, translating that heat down to
the surface. Dewpoints will only continue to dissipate
throughout the vertical column, pushing humidity values into the
teens and potentially single digits. Recent collaboration with
local fuel experts reveals particularly dry conditions both in
the short-term/grassy fuels and the longer- burning trees. The
winds that we will be mixing into won`t be overly strong (up to
30 kts), but periodic gusts to 20-30 mph during the afternoon
will be enough with the critically dry conditions to result in
extreme fire behavior.

After highs peak in the 90s area-wide (which would set records for
the second straight day), temperatures begin to slowly decrease
during the evening hours and help humidity values slowly recover.
After 10 PM, a front will shift southward into the area, bringing
with it gusty winds that will reach 30-40 mph into early Sunday. As
of now, the current Red Flag Warning that extends into Iowa lasts
until 4 AM early Sunday, but could be drawn out further if fire
activity over-performs Saturday afternoon. Those winds will slowly
decrease through the day, funneling in cooler air that will limit
highs to the 50s and 60s, but still well-above normal for this time
of year.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday, mid/upper shortwave that brought the cooler winds into
the area Sunday will have largely flattened the ridge to the west
(though a lesser form of it will continue to exist through much of
the week). We`ll see temperatures continue to stay above-average
(which for this time of year is in the upper 50s), and limited
chances for rain, thought they won`t necessarily be zero.
Another day into the 70s and 80s looks likely for Wednesday
next week, where the absence of rain will continue to loom over
the area and keep fire danger at the forefront of the forecast.
That afternoon/evening will feature another weak front that
could bring trace amounts of moisture to the area, which is not
much but more that what we`ve seen over the last few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light
northwesterly winds continuing through the evening. Closer to
05-07z, winds begin shift southwesterly, staying light until
13-15Z when speeds increase to 10 to 15 kts into the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

517
FXUS63 KGID 202320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record-breaking heat continues, with Saturday featuring
  HISTORIC HEAT FOR MARCH across much of our forecast area (CWA)
  and particularly in our Nebraska Tri Cities! Grand
  Island/Hastings airports are likely to shatter their high
  temperature records for the ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH and exceed
  90 degrees at the earliest point in any year on record by 2+
  weeks! See separate CLIMATE section below for more details.

- The aforementioned record heat on Saturday (plus very low
  relative humidity), in tandem with breezy south-southwest
  winds during the afternoon-evening...then followed by strong
  north winds overnight into Sunday morning...sets the stage for
  a concerning fire weather situation. As a result, a Red Flag
  Warning is in effect from 11 AM Saturday-4 AM Sunday for our
  entire forecast area.

- From Sunday-Friday, fire weather remains our paramount
  concern. Although no widespread/outright-critical conditions
  currently appear likely on most days, at least "near-critical"
  conditions are a certainty most days. See separate FIRE
  WEATHER section below for more details.

- Unfortunately, aside from a few very small (no more than
  10-20%) chances for spotty rain, the VAST MAJORITY of the
  7-day forecast remains bone-dry, as we sink ever-farther into
  an increasingly-concerning drought situation.

- Temperature wise beyond Saturday`s historic heat, no
  additional days look nearly as hot. However, it will certainly
  remain seasonably-mild, with afternoon highs Sunday-Friday
  mainly 60s-70s, except warmer 80s Wednesday, and perhaps only
  50s on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Wow, are we getting into RARE TERRITORY temperature-wise on
  Saturday! Separate CLIMATE section below has more details, but
  not only are Grand Island/Hastings likely to exceed 90 degrees
  in March for the first time on record on Saturday, but could
  also reach the mid-90s the earliest in any year on record by
  at least 2-3 weeks!

- Unless/until we see a legitimate pattern change with at least
  semi-meaningful rain chances (MAYBE some hints of this a few
  days beyond this 7-day forecast a few days either side of
  April 1st?), fire weather will surely remain our paramount
  focus.

- As far as forecast changes go versus our previous overnight-
  issuance, probably the most noticeable/meaningful
  modifications were:

1) Northerly wind gusts associated with the late Sat night-early
Sunday AM were cranked up a good 10+ MPH (and probably not
enough). We are now calling for at least brief peak gusts at
least 40-50 MPH, and raw/higher-res model data suggests at least
near-severe gusts of 55+ MPH could be on the table. Obviously we
not want ANY ACTIVE FIRES igniting prior to this frontal surge!

2) In tandem, wind speeds for Sunday daytime were likely raised
at least 5 MPH from previous forecast, with much of the day now
expected to feature sustained speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts
30-40 MPH.

3) High temps were nudged slightly upward (no more than a few
degrees) for nearly all days except Monday, which actually
trended very slightly cooler than previous.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. March
 27):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
Today is turning out very much as expected, albeit if anything
probably very slightly warmer. Under only varying degrees of
passing high cirrus (mostly sunny skies), high temps are on
track to top out 86-92 degrees across most of our CWA, with
Grand Island/Hastings already breaking date-specific records for
March 20th (and at least making a run toward the March monthly
record of 90).

Aloft in the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short
term model data clearly reveal an anomalous/expansive ridge of
high pressure (500 millibar height around 595 decameters)
spiraling over the Desert Southwest, and it`s influence
obviously extending here well into the central U.S. as we reside
under northwesterly flow between it and a broad eastern U.S.
trough. At the surface, although we are seeing occasional
"sneaky" gusts of 20+ MPH, fortunately for the most part
sustained, mainly northerly to northwesterly winds are
near/below 10 MPH and gusts mainly under 15 MPH...holding
critical fire weather concerns at bay.


- TONIGHT:
As a surface high pressure axis translates through, very light
breezes this evening will become established from more of a
south-southwesterly direction post-midnight. In this very dry
airmass, overnight lows temps have been dropping a little bit
farther than anticipated, so nudged down lows very slightly, but
still very mild for late-March with most areas mid-upper 40s
except some lower 40s mainly far north/west.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME-EVENING:
It`s still hard for this forecast to believe, but we are
officially forecasting high temps to reach 92-96 degrees across
the vast majority of our CWA, and it`s quite possible we might
not be aiming quite warm enough. Again, unprecedented territory
for March since our modern-day records began! Unfortunately,
fire weather concerns will be increased compared to today,
thanks to afternoon-evening winds sustained 10-20 MPH with gusts
as high as 25-30 MPH out of the south-southwest. Red Flag
Warning in effect CWA-wide.


- SATURDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY AM:
A powerful cold front comes crashing southward through our CWA,
driven by an upper disturbance passing by to our north, the
frontal passage marked by northerly gusts AT LEAST 40-50 MPH
(and possibly 55+ MPH on at least a brief/localized basis). This
front will enter our far northern CWA shortly after midnight,
and clear our far southern counties around sunrise. With
increasing confidence in these stronger winds, hit them a little
harder in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). The "end time"
of the Red Flag Warning (4 AM Sunday) is admittedly a bit of a
compromise between steadily-rising overnight RH and this frontal
passage, as the front will only be roughly halfway through our
CWA by the current expiration time. Low temps aimed from low-mid
40s northwest to upper 40-low 50s southeast.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
Although MUCH COOLER than Saturday, we are still aiming for
above normal high temps ranging from near-60 far north to mid
60s far south. Of greater concern are the moderately-strong
daytime winds, with sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH
much of the day but gradually easing up mid-late afternoon as
surface high pressure noses in from the north. Although we
"technically" aren`t forecasting RH to meet our 20% or lower
critical threshold, many places could drop to around 25% and at
least some consideration might need given to Warning issuance to
account for the winds.

Sunday night, light winds gradually flip around to southerly.
This will likely be the chilliest night of the next week, and
lows were nudged down to 30-36 degrees most places.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Another warm-up gets underway, with highs on Monday similar to
Sunday (mainly low-mid 60s), but then mainly low-mid 70s Tuesday
as upper ridging again strengthens. Precipitation-wise, our
official forecast is still dry, but there are subtle hints that
mainly Monday could feature some spotty rain showers (perhaps a
weak thunderstorm?). Something to keep an eye on but
meaningful/widespread rain unlikely. As southerly winds turn
breezy, we`ll have to watch for at least spotty critical fire
weather conditions (mainly in our extreme west for Monday).


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Broad ridging remains the dominant influence aloft. Our forecast
still remains dry, but especially ECMWF hints at some low
chances for showers/weak convection at least near the fringes of
our CWA, so something to watch. Wednesday currently looks to be
the "peak" of next week`s warm up (highs mainly low-mid 80s but
possibly near-90 far west-southwest), with Thursday then a bit
cooler with highs 60s-70s (will all depend on the speed/strength
of cold frontal passage). Although far too early to be
confident in details, we are technically forecasting some
critical fire weather conditions especially Thursday. Our
official forecast carries some very-low-confidence precip
chances for Thursday night.

- FRIDAY:
A full week out so subject to plenty of inherent uncertainy, but
at least for now this looks like our overall-coolest day of the
next week with highs "only" into the mid 50s most areas.
However, based on latest "raw" and ensemble data, would not be
surprised to see these values trend up in later forecasts
(perhaps more into the 60s than 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some
passing high level clouds and good VSBYS.

Northerly winds this afternoon will subside by 21/01Z...and
become light and variable during the overnight hours. While
there could be some very marginal LLWS towards daybreak, all
signals are that it should be too light to meet thresholds and
be fairly transitory across the local area as a cold front
approaches from the north late in the day. Surface winds should
increase ahead of the cold front by the late morning hours as
mixing to near 650 MB is realized by 21/18Z...which should
allow for a few wind gusts in excess of 20 KTS during the
afternoon hours Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING (FRIDAY):
Unseasonably-warm conditions will keep relative humidity (RH) well
down into the 5-15 percent range through around sunset. However,
fortunately, winds will remain seasonably light...holding critical
fire weather conditions at bay. Although occasional/fleeting gusts
could reach 20 MPH or slightly higher, sustained speeds through
sunset should mainly average around 10 MPH or less...with gusts
mainly 17 MPH or less...out of a mainly northerly direction.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for our entire forecast area, for
a combination of very low afternoon and evening RH with moderately-
strong south-southwesterly winds, followed by increasing RH but even
stronger north winds late Saturday night-early Sunday morning behind
a surging cold front. For the afternoon-evening hours, sustained
south-southwest winds will average 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30
MPH, while RH again bottoms out 5-15% in the presence of record-
shattering high temperatures at least into the low-mid 90s (likely
the hottest temperatures on record during the month of March for most
of our area!). Late Saturday night into early morning (mainly 12-7
AM), a strong cold front will surge southward through our area,
making any ongoing fires prone to an abrupt switch to northerly
winds with gusts easily 40-50 MPH for at least a few hours (perhaps
higher). Fortunately, RH will recover upward during this time, with
values at least back up to 30-50% by around 4 AM Sunday and
increasing further through mid-morning before falling again.


- SUNDAY:
Despite most of our area being 30-35 degrees COOLER than Saturday,
afternoon high temps will still be above-normal and reach the low-mid
60s most areas. At least for now, outright-critical fire weather
conditions are not anticipated due to afternoon RH bottoming out
"only" 25-30 percent across our area, but moderately-strong north
winds will be a concern with sustained speeds through much of the day
20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH.


- MONDAY:
Afternoon high temperatures are aimed fairly similar to Sunday (most
places low-mid 60s), but winds will flip around to out of the south-
southeast and should not be AS strong as Sunday`s speeds, with
sustained speeds mainly 10-20 MPH/gusts mainly 15-25 MPH. Minimum
afternoon RH is currently forecast to hold up 20-25% most areas, but
a few of our far western counties (mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could
drop more so 15-20% and technically meet critical thresholds during
the afternoon.


- TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
Obviously the "finer details" regarding fire weather get
increasingly uncertain as we get out this far in time. However,
at least near-critical conditions appear likely in at least
portions of our area each afternoon, with Thursday of overall-
greatest concern for perhaps some outright-critical conditions.

-- NOTE:
- NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
  overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
  of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
  the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
  winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE
CALENDAR YEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY **

An incredible (even historic for March) stretch of heat
continues through Saturday, with both Grand Island/Hastings
airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we
issue official Record Event Reports/RERs) likely to experience
on Saturday the HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MARCH! In addition, we MIGHT even break records for
earliest-annual occurrence of 91+ degrees by AT LEAST 2 WEEKS!
Various details follow, organized by site:

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 20 (Fri): 84 in 1921        | 89
March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988         | 95

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 16, 2015
91 degrees......91 on April 4, 1929
92 degrees......92 on April 12, 2022
93-94 degrees...94 on April 15, 2002
95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902
99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013
100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013



-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS            | LATEST FORECAST

March 20 (Fri): 82 in 1939        | 89
March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910         | 94

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 degrees......90 on March 23, 1910
91-92 degrees...92 on April 3, 1929
93-95 degrees...95 on April 15, 2002
96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989
97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916
99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion