Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

349
FXUS63 KOAX 121042
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
442 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm into Saturday. Friday will be the warmest day
  of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- High to potentially very high fire danger Friday afternoon.

- 40-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance we see some
  accumulating snow in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today and Thursday:

A mid-level ridge located over the Interior West will slowly
build east, reaching the central U.S. Thursday into Thursday
night. In the low levels, a ridge of high pressure will build
through the mid-MO Valley today ahead of a lee trough that will
deepen over the northern and central High Plains Thursday. The
high pressure represents a slightly cooler air mass that is
filtering into the area this morning with today`s highs (upper
50s to mid 60s) a bit cooler than those yesterday.

Winds will switch to south tonight into Thursday, which will
contribute to warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s.


Friday through Sunday:

A mid/upper-level low and associated troughing will progress
through central Canada and the north-central U.S. Friday and
Saturday with an attending surface front pushing through our
area Saturday morning. Persistent south winds ahead of the front
will will maintain an unseasonably warm air mass across the
region with Friday likely being the warmest day of the week.
High temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 60s to mid
70s, which will be in the neighborhood of the record highs for
the day (76/Omaha, 75/Lincoln, 72/Norfolk). The warm temperatures
and relatively dry air mass (minimum RH of 25-30%) will result
in high to potentially very high fire danger in northeast NE
Friday afternoon.

The models continue to indicate a dry frontal passage Saturday
morning, which is reflected in this forecast update with less
than 5% PoPs.

Temperatures are expected to cool slightly Saturday with the
early-day frontal passage with highs in the 60s to around 70.
Further cooling is anticipated Sunday with highs in the 50s to
around 60.


Early next week:

Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in a bit
better agreement in the timing of a short-wave trough and
associated surface low into the central Plains Monday, though
latitudinal (north-south) track differences do exist. Those
track variations could have implications on precipitation type
with a more northern track supporting mainly rain. In contrast,
a more southern track would increase the chance of a rain-snow
mix in parts of our area. This forecast update will indicate
40-50% PoPs Monday with a rain-snow mix developing in northeast
NE Monday evening.

We`ll see cooler temperatures with the movement of the weather
system into the area with highs in 40s and 50s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
increasing high-level cloudiness (FL200-250) late this afternoon
into tonight. Light northwest to north winds this morning will
become light southeast by this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

720
FXUS63 KGID 121148
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
548 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spectacular fall weather - including well above normal
  temperatures, plentiful sunshine, and light winds - continue
  through the end of the week. Expect afternoon highs in the 60s
  to potentially mid 70s through Saturday!

- A cold front and large scale pattern change arrives late
  Saturday. Highs will cool into the 50s to around 60F for
  Sunday, then drop further into the 40s to around 50F for much
  of next week.

- Precipitation chances (30-40%) return on Monday. The
  atmospheric profile continues to favor rain, with overall
  precipitation amounts likely less than one quarter of an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Another seasonably mild night across the region as light
westerly winds helped keep overnight temperatures just above
freezing in most locations. This seasonably mild start to the
day will allow for rapid warming during the morning hours, with
full sunshine and light winds making for another beautiful
afternoon. Overall 850 MB temps have fallen 2-4C across the area
from yesterday, which means highs will likely fall a few
degrees shy of yesterdays very mild highs.

With the upper level ridge across the intermountain west
shifting slowly east over the next few days, expect a string of
very mild fall weather across the area, with temperatures
likely peaking Friday afternoon in concert with the apex of the
upper level ridge extending across the central Plains. As a
result, temperatures for Friday afternoon have crept into record
territory, with the record high temperatures for both Hastings
and Grand Island now in jeopardy (current records are 74 (1990)
and 71 (2001,1990) respectively for November 14th).

While the ridge will begin to flatten and push east on Saturday
in response to a cold front and upper level trough pushing
across the northern Plains, Saturday will likely remain on the
very mild side as the surface front will likely not cross the
area until the late afternoon or evening hours. While this front
will be dry, modestly cooler air (yet seasonable) can be
expected in its wake for Sunday, before an upper level low
across the desert southwest swings into the plains on Monday
bringing increased cloud cover and a chance for some light
precip to the local area. At this point, this continues to look
like a fairly mild system, with a cool rain possible area wide
Monday.

While the initial system looks like a fairly meager precip maker
(generally less than 0.25"), it looks to mark a transition to a
cooler and more unsettled weather pattern that ensemble model
members are indicating could last all the way until
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period. Expect clear
skies this morning to be overtaken by some thin passing high
level clouds this afternoon...lingering and thickening a bit
through the end of the period. At the surface...light westerly
winds this morning will diminish and become more southerly by
midday...likely less than 8 KTs. Winds may increase a couple of
knots this evening as a weak LLJ develops across the area...but
no LLWS is anticipated and surface winds should remain below 12
KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion