Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

374
FXUS63 KOAX 070019
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
719 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible Friday and Saturday,
  with Saturday posing the greatest risk for wind across
  Nebraska and Iowa.

- Temperatures trend warmer going into the weekend. Seasonably
  warm weather expected over the weekend.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only
  small amount reaching the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the persistent trough that
had been across the central CONUS continuing to weaken while a
shortwave moving across Nebraska spurs on convection to its
southeast in Kansas and Missouri. Dreary conditions have been
gradually easing up with less and less surface observations coming
in with lowered visibility. Rain chances for the rest of the day
should stay well to the northwest, with our best bet coming
from an isolated shower or storm developing along a weak
boundary in western NE/SD drifting into the area after 9 PM.
Otherwise, it`ll be a day to watch the edges of low cloud cover
slowly erode while highs reach the lower 80s (or near 90 in
northeast Nebraska).

Showers and storms return to the forecast Friday, manifesting in one
of the two following scenarios: 1) Elevated storms develop along the
SD/IA/MN border region that travel along the western Iowa border
through 2 PM; or 2) Storms wait until 2-4 PM to develop along a
front before clearing the area to the south by 10 PM.

For scenario 1 (anchored by the HRRR), modest shear and
instability are set up along the nose of the low-level wind
fields during the pre-dawn hours, with that nosing/impinging of
the front serving as the forcing. Once the storms get going,
they would be able to develop some semblance of a cold pool
that would bring 40+ mph gusts and some hail with them as they
push southward along the border through the morning where a
MUCAPE gradient will be set up. Scenario 2 seems to pose the
greater risk for severe weather (currently highlighted in a
level 1 risk out of 5), where greater access to large-scale
instability and to the surface exists for more organized outflow
to develop. This scenario would also have a wider affected area
due to the frontal placement being across south-central
Nebraska into central Iowa. A couple of the HREF members do
output gusts in excess of 50 kts (NAM Nest and FV3), with hail
larger than quarters also being possible. Storms should be
progressive enough to avoid any flooding concerns based on the
latest model output.

Saturday and Beyond:

Depending on what unfolds on Friday, another round or two of severe
weather is on the menu for the forecast area Saturday. An
ingredients-based approach to the forecast draws the attention
quickly to a reservoir of instability arcing from northwest Nebraska
down to the south-central portion of the state near the Kansas
border region. A mid-level shortwave with slightly enhanced mid-
upper flow will move across the area, providing enhanced shear to go
along with sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates for severe-
intensity storms, it`ll just be a matter of when they develop.
Significant spread continues to exist with the development of the
surface fields temperature-wise Saturday, but regardless a gradient
in the surface fields will develop and strengthen over the course of
the day. Either convergence along that gradient or the
aforementioned shortwave will be the catalyst for storm development,
with that activity working with the northwesterly steering flow to
move across the area. Early peeks at the extended CAMs indicate
elevated storms may be able to develop as early as 7 AM, while any
delay in activity into the later morning/afternoon hours would
increase the overall ceiling for any MCS that would occur. With
deeper-shear vectors aligning with the instability gradient, a
healthier and prolonged wind threat seems possible. Highs in tho
upper 80s to low 90s are on tap, with the caveat being that
storms could some variance based on the time of day they move
through.

Beyond Saturday we continue to see ourselves on the northeastern
edge of the broader ridging pattern centered to the west. We`ll see
highs trend warmer, but still relatively close to normal for this
time of year. A persistent frontal zone will be oriented near to
just northwest of the area, keeping rain and a stray strong storm or
two a low-end possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A scattered strocumulous deck continues across eastern Nebraska
this evening with KLNK bouncing in an out of MVFR ceilings.
The trend is for these clouds to diminish this evening. There
is a decent signal for IFR ceilings to redevelop after 06Z
tonight, but there will probably be just enough wind to limit
widespread fog formation and keep the visibility from crashing.
The lower ceilings and potential for at least some visibility
resitriction will likely linger at KOMA through the morning
push. There is also an outside shot at a shower or rumble of
thunder at KOMA in the morning, but confidence is too low for
the TAF at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CLF

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

403
FXUS63 KGID 062350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity begin to increase for Friday, becoming
  downright hot over the weekend when high temperatures rise
  into the 90s to lower 100s. Heat Index values over 100
  degrees are possible Saturday through Monday, particularly in
  north central Kansas.

- Although quite uncertain, the chance of showers/thunderstorms
  returns Saturday evening/night. There is a Marginal Risk
  (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with this activity. Main
  concern is damaging wind potential.

- Temperatures gradually moderate back closer to normal for mid
  to late next week as pattern becomes more active and brings
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Low clouds have been stubborn to burn off today thanks to weak
mixing withing the low level high pressure axis. This high
pressure is shifting further E and allowing for gradually
increasing S/SE low level flow and decreasing clouds. Humidity
is beginning to increase once again (dew points back into he mid
to upper 60s), but should still be a seasonably pleasant evening
given the light breeze and temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s through sunset.

Expect another round of stratus and potentially more fog late
tonight and into Friday AM with return of downright muggy
conditions and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Bufkit
soundings and model progs seem to favor this moisture advection
being more stratus than fog, which makes sense given the steady
5-10 MPH Srly winds tonight. Models were a little overdone on
the fog last night and are even less excited about it tonight,
so have mentioned patchy fog in the grids, but left out any
mention of dense fog in the latest HWO.

Main story for the weekend will be return of warm/hot and humid
conditions - but there`s also one or two, albeit highly
uncertain, chances for thunderstorms to deal with, as well. Dome
of upper level high pressure will build/expand over the central
and southern Plains and allow for temperatures to soar into the
90s, to even low 100s in north central Kansas, each afternoon
Saturday and Sunday. The warmer KS zones will also see overnight
lows creep back up into mid 70s. Still can`t rule out the need
for a heat advisory for some of these areas, especially towards
Sun-Mon time frame, after moisture has had more time to pool
along a weak frontal zone. These areas will likely see peak heat
indices near the 105F criteria, and the warmer overnight lows
will add to the "accumulative effects" that come with high heat.
On the other hand, it`s now early August and we`re well
accustomed to the heat that was even higher a couple weeks ago.
Will continue to monitor trends for any signs of an upward tick
in dew points or air temperatures and potential need for a heat
headline - again, mainly along and S of the NE/KS state line.

Several weak waves rounding the edge of the upper level high
could lead to some sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances,
mainly in the Saturday to Saturday night time frame. CAMs are
quite inconsistent with details, however - differing
significantly on where and when the best chances will be. Some
guidance points towards mainly a Saturday AM chance, whereas
other models weaken the AM activity before it gets to us and
puts the highest chances with potential redevelopment in the
evening and overnight hours. Instability probably won`t be a
limiting factor regardless of scenario, and region will be on
the southern fringes of greater deep layer shear...so at least
some mention of severe weather potential seems warranted. Just
really difficult to pin point more specific details at this
time, unfortunately.

Models still support the idea of gradually cooling temperatures
and more active weather pattern for roughly the second half of
next week. Temperatures should dip back down into primarily 80s
for Neb zones by Wednesday, then area wide for Thursday. The
upper ridge will break down some and reorient from the Desert SW
into more of the Deep South, which should allow for a steady
stream of monsoonal mid to upper level moisture to stream into
the region and interact with frequent shortwaves embedded within
zonal to NW upper flow. Far too early for much in the way of
details, but broadly speaking, the pattern should favor an
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential, likely on a daily
basis...and this is confirmed in recent ensemble precip anomaly
plots for next week. Hopefully this pans out, as many areas
could use some moisture now, but especially next week after the
hot, and mainly dry, weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Lower clouds diminished through the afternoon hours...and while
some MVFR ceilings are lingering around the AUH-JYR areas...have
VFR conditions to start off this TAF period. Models showing
increasing coverage of lower level stratus as the overnight
hours passing, pushing back NNE with time. Continued the mention
of MVFR and potentially LIFR ceilings at both sites, esp between
10-14Z. More uncertainty lingers with just how low visibilities
get with the expected stratus in place...lowest values likely to
be on the edge of the cloud cover, which is expected to be NNW
of the terminal sites. Winds this evening-tonight are expected
to remain generally southeasterly...with speeds peaking around
10 MPH. After sunrise Friday, winds turn more westerly...with
more uncertainty closer to midday and into the afternoon hours,
as a sfc boundary sinks into the area. Winds may be more
light/variable or become more northeasterly depending on how
that boundary tracks.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion