Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

586
FXUS63 KOAX 181631
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1131 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant weather conditions today, with highs
  generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- A few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder are possible
  Friday afternoon and evening, but severe weather is not
  expected.

- Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are possible Saturday
  evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and localized
  flash flooding will be the main concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a
broad mid- to upper-level trough axis pushing toward the northeast
CONUS, leaving much of the region under zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft. With surface high pressure also filtering into the area,
today is shaping up to be a calm and pleasant June day, with
afternoon highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s. Similar
conditions will continue Friday, with afternoon highs warming
slightly into the low to mid 80s as weak mid-level riding builds
in and low-level flow returns to southerly.

A shortwave disturbance tracking across the Upper Midwest will push
a weak front through the area Friday afternoon and evening, bringing
a chance for widely scattered showers (PoPs 20-35%). Limited
moisture and instability should keep severe weather potential low,
though there may be just enough instability for a few rumbles of
thunder, especially across southeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Beyond...

Severe weather potential returns to the area Saturday as a shortwave
impulse moves through the Front Range and helps develop a surface
low over CO/WY. The low is expected to track eastward across NE/KS
through the weekend. Ahead of the approaching system, moisture will
be drawn northward across the Plains into the region, pushing
dewpoints into the 60s as afternoon highs climb into the mid to
upper 80s.

Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon, but the main round of storms is expected to arrive during
the evening and overnight hours as a large thunderstorm complex
moves into the area, supported by an increasing low-level jet
nosing into eastern NE. The primary hazards appear to be
damaging wind gusts with a bowing segment possible, though
isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado also remain possible.
Additional CAM guidance will help refine the finer details.
Thunderstorms are expected to persist into the overnight period,
with widespread PoPs peaking at 85-95% Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

Another primary concern Saturday will be heavy rainfall and flash
flood potential. Strong moisture transport into the area will bring
PWAT values near or above 1.75 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile of sounding climatology. Warm cloud depths around 3-4km
will support efficient rainfall rates. Latest NBM guidance shows a
70-90% probability of at least 1 inch of precipitation and a 30-70%
probability of at least 2 inches, with the highest probabilities
focused toward southeast Nebraska. PoPs will taper off through the
day Sunday, with continued cloud cover keeping highs in the 70s for
most locations.

Monday into next week, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more
uncertain as generally zonal flow aloft persists and any subtle
embedded shortwave disturbances drive precipitation chances. With no
strong forcing evident at this time, confidence in timing and
coverage remains lower. Highs will remain in the 70s to low 80s
Monday and Tuesday before warming back into the 80s by Wednesday.
Periodic 15-30% PoPs continue Tuesday through at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Northwesterly winds will continue at 12-15 kts with a
few gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon, gradually calming under
12 kts by 19/00Z. A few clouds may traverse the area at
FL050-070. Winds will become calm and variable overnight before
shifting to southerly tomorrow morning. Isolated rain showers
may approach KOFK after 19/13Z, though confidence is too low
(30% chance) to include in the TAFs at this time given the lack
in coverage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

673
FXUS63 KGID 182044
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
344 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A handful of showers with a few non-severe storms may be
  possible to develop across the area Friday afternoon (15-25%
  chances). The coverage of these showers should be more spotty
  and shorter-lived than consistent.

- The potential for severe weather will return mainly Saturday
  evening to night. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe
  weather is in place across the full area.

- The strongest storms mainly across the overnight hours
  Saturday will likely possess strong to damaging wind gusts
  with a few pockets of large hail. An isolated tornado or two
  may also be possible.

- Heavy rainfall rates from the storms Saturday night may lead
  to local rainfall rates of up to 2-3+". The Tri-cities areas
  currently has an around 90% chance to receive at least 1", 80%
  chance to receive at least 2" and a 35% chance to see 3+".

- Highs for the start and middle of next week will mainly range
  the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026


Tonight and Friday....

With the last of this morning`s spotty showers now gone from the
area, the rest of the afternoon and night will be precipitation free.
In addition, clearing skies with light to calm winds will allow
overnight temperatures to fall to as low as the mid 50 to lower 60s
tonight. Aloft, the upper level jet rests right overhead with broad
ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing across the
eastern CONUS. The help of an upstream Pacific shortwave trough and
the strengthening western U.S. ridge will later nudge the jet east.
This Pacific trough will be responsible for some severe weather and
potentially heavy rainfall implications later this week (Saturday
night).

As for Friday, light southerly winds will reestablish at the
surface. Highs, however, should not deviate much from today (low
to mid 80s: a degree or two warmer from today). A few areas of
showers and non-severe thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon as
some moisture surges northward up from the south (15-25% chances
across the area). The latest high resolution model guidance
(HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST) does not pin point much in terms of precipitation
amounts (40% chance of rainfall amounts
exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point).
Due to the lack of consistent model trends so far, the desire to
issue a flood watch this shift was forgone. If our current forecast
continues to hold consistent, however, it is likely that we may need
to include a considerable portion of the area into a Flood watch for
Saturday night.


Sunday and Beyond....

Temperatures through the middle of next week look to remain somewhat
stable. Highs are currently forecast to cool down to the 70s by
Monday, with highs staying mainly in the 70s to low 80s through the
middle of next week. The long range forecast model guidance
(GFS/ECMWF) both appear to be hinting at a second shortwave
disturbance passing through the area sometime Monday through
Wednesday. This disturbance will likely bring yet another chance for
a few storms in and out of the area. Confidence drops off
substantially after Sunday as timing of any potential precipitation
diverges between the models.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

No significant aviation hazards are expected across the next 24
hours. Skies should remain ceiling free (few to scattered) with
bases not threatening any sort of non VFR conditions.
Visibilities are also expected to remain >6SM. Precipitation
will be highly unlikely through the night with a broad 10-20%
chance after 12z (not enough confidence yet for even a PROB30
group mention at this time.

Winds out of the north to northwest this afternoon will continue
to gust up to 20-25kts until weakening this evening and
tonight. Speeds between 0-15z are expected to remain mostly calm
and variable as directions gradually spin clockwise and around
towards a south-southeastely direction for Friday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion