Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

224
FXUS63 KOAX 081943
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
143 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures persist, with highs in the 50s and
  60s today, warming into the 60s and 70s on Monday. Dry and
  windy conditions on Monday will bring areas of very high fire
  danger to eastern Nebraska.

- Continued warmth increases the potential for river ice breakup
  and ice jams. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Platte,
  Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers.

- Periodic precipitation chances (15-40%) return late Wednesday
  and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight through Tuesday...

A pleasant afternoon is ongoing as upper-level riding remains in
place across the south-central CONUS. A warm front that moved
through the area earlier today has ushered in a renewed period of
WAA, allowing afternoon highs to climb well above normal into the
50s to mid 60s across east-central Nebraska. Southerly low-level
flow will return overnight and into Monday, supporting continued
warming with highs rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. These values
are roughly 30 degrees above early February climatological normals.
Record highs will likely be challenged on Monday, including Omaha
(63 degrees set in 1954), Lincoln and Norfolk (both 68 degrees, set
in 1954).

Pockets of very high to extreme fire danger are expected across
eastern Nebraska Monday afternoon as relative humidity values fall
in the 18-25% range. Southerly wind gusts will reach the 20-30 mph
range before a surface cold front moves through late in the
afternoon, shifting winds to northwesterly. Have opted to bump winds
up Monday afternoon, given that model soundings indicate 30-40 kts
at the top of the mixed layer. Recent HRRR/RAP model soundings have
trended towards much deeper mixing heights, potentially mixing
towards 10kft with 40-50 kts at the top of this layer and bringing
30-40 mph gusts to the surface. The currently blended winds keep us
just below Red Flag Warning criteria, though trends will need to be
monitored to see if additional adjustments and fire weather
headlines are warranted, particularly across northeast Nebraska. As
the front pushes through (late afternoon for northeast Nebraska/mid
evening for east-central Nebraska), RH will quickly increase, though
modest subsidence behind the front will also bring an initial push
of 20-30 mph northwesterly gusts.

Several shortwave disturbances will work to gradually damped the the
ridge, resulting in cooler temperatures within the post-frontal
airmass on Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to peak in the
40s, still approximately 10 degrees above average.

Additional concerns through the next few days will be the potential
for ice jams as continued mild temperatures promote river ice
breakup and movement. This increases the risk for ice to become
lodged and cause sudden rises in water levels. Accordingly, a Flood
Watch will remain in effect through Monday evening for the Platte,
Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers. River gauges and observational reports
will be monitored closely through this period.

Wednesday and Beyond...

From Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, generally
zonal flow aloft will persist across the region as a series of weak
disturbances pass through. Afternoon highs will largely remain in
the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows falling into the 20s to low
30s. These disturbances will bring periodic precipitation chances,
with 15-30% PoPs returning late Wednesday and continuing into the
weekend. Despite the extended stretch of PoPs, dry periods are
expected to be more common than wet ones.

Available moisture and forcing for ascent with these systems appears
limited, with the NBM indicating only a 40% probability of at least
0.05" of QPF through the work week. However, with overnight lows
frequently falling below freezing, precipitation type will need to
be monitored, as periods of light rain and snow are both possible.
Long-range guidance suggests the potential for a more robust system
to move across the central and southern Plains next weekend, though
confidence in details remain low. Model consensus and run-to-run
consistency continue to vary, with some solutions tracking the
system across the southern portion of the forecast area and other
keeping it entirely to the south. At this time, only about one-third
of EPS/EPS-AIFS and GEFS/AI-GEFS members bring the system into the
area, with 30-45% PoPs in place across southeast NE and southwest
IA. Trends will continue to be monitored as the system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Northwesterly winds will continue under 12 kts, backing
to southerly this evening. A few high clouds will pass by at
FL250 through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033-
     042>045-050>053-067.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

170
FXUS63 KGID 081753
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1153 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very pleasant weather today as highs climb into the 60s with
  light winds and mostly sunny skies.

- Record warmth on Monday as highs soar into the 70s. Near-
  Critical fire weather conditions are possible due to low
  relative humidity and breezier winds.

- As a result of the unusual early February warmth, there is at least
  limited potential for ice jam flooding over the next few days
  along our Nebraska counties residing along the Platte/Loup
  River systems (see separate hydrology section below for more).

- Low probability chances for precipitation (15-35%) return Thursday,
  though widespread or significant precipitation is not
  expected at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently in the 30s under mostly
clear skies. Aloft, ridging is building over the area as troughing
persists over the east coast. A beautiful February day is expected
as highs soar into the mid/upper 60s, with 70s possible across far
western portions of the area. These highs are around 30 degrees
above their climatological normals (upper 30s)! Winds will remain
light during the day, further contributing to the pleasant weather.
Get outside and enjoy the weather if you can! Lows tonight will be
in the 30s, under mostly clear skies.

Record warmth remains on track for Monday as highs soar into the
70s, around 35 degrees above their climatological normals! The
record warmth will also result in afternoon relative humidity values
falling to 15-25%, driest west of Highway 183. Winds gusts will be
stronger than on Sunday, bringing a chance for near-critical fire
weather conditions. Northwestern portions of the area are the most
likely to see the overlap of highest winds (20-25mph gusts) and
lowest relative humidity. If winds were to increase further, a brief
window of critical fire weather conditions may develop.

Otherwise the cooldown (highs 40s/50s) remain on track through the
rest of the forecast period as a cold front moves through the area
Monday evening/night. Ridging aloft will transition to southwesterly
flow over the area. This brings multiple low probability chances for
precipitation (15-35%) Thursday onwards, though any accumulations
look to be light and not widespread at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Variably cloudy skies passed across the local area this
afternoon as a warm front approached south-central Nebraska.
This warm front will bring a switch in winds this evening, with
light westerly flow establishing itself across the local area
overnight. This switch in winds will also aid in the warming of
the airmass, with high temperatures expected to continue to
climb across the area on Sunday when most locations are expected
to top out in the mid to upper 60s. These very mild temperatures
combined with only light westerly breezes, will result in a
spectacular finish to the weekend across the region.

As we transition into Monday, while there will be a mix of
increasing high clouds across the area, temperatures are only
expected to climb further, with the current forecast indicating
new record high temperatures appear likely to start the new
week. Given the warmth, dry fuels and airmass the next couple of
afternoons, fire weather concerns come to mind, but these
concerns should be limited by somewhat light winds generally
less than 15 MPH each day.

As the upper level ridge flattens late Monday, a cold front is
forecast to cross the local area Monday night, ushering in a
cooler (yet still mild) airmass, mostly cloudy skies, and
breezy north winds by Tuesday. The upper level flow will then
remain more zonal through the end of the week, with some small
pops creeping in the forecast as early as Wednesday afternoon
and continuing through the end of the forecast period. That
said, this is largely a factor of the model blend as we will not
see precip settling in across the area for 4 days straight and
precip amounts through the end of next week are expected to be
light. While there are still significant differences between the
EC and GFS, the GFS appears much more promising for
precipitation, swinging a trough out of the southwest into the
central Plains late Friday or Saturday of next week, while the
EC keeps this same trough well south of the local area and
across the southern plains. All that said, again, do not
anticipate a significant chance for precip or much in the way of
accumulating precipitation until possible next Friday night,
and even this is still very much in question. Given the mild
temperatures, most precip should fall as rain and little to any
snow accumulation appears un-likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period.

Expect some increasing high clouds across the area through the
period with light westerly winds today shifting and becoming
more southwesterly overnight ahead of a cold front that will
cross the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, the pressure
gradient will increase across the area during the daytime hours
Monday, with breezy southwesterly winds...with gusts to near
20 KTS...possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- REGARDING LOCALIZED ICE JAM POTENTIAL ALONG THE PLATTE/LOUP
  RIVER SYSTEMS...MAINLY THROUGH MONDAY:

At this time, we are not aware of any active/ongoing ice jam
flooding within our central/south central NE counties that
reside along the Platte and various branches of the Loup River
(although earlier today on off-duty NWS employee noted that a
jam might be in the process of forming in a typical "trouble
spot" just south of the I-80/Hwy 281 interchange south of Grand
Island).

With continued well-above normal temperatures (especially
through Monday), ice melt and movement will surely increase in
the Platte/Loup Rivers over the next few days, which could
result in the POSSIBLE formation of localized ice jams and
resultant flooding. Unlike "traditional" warm season flooding
from heavy rain that is typically easier to detect via radar
rainfall estimation and the network of river gages, ice jam
flooding is typically difficult to detect proactively/remotely
(unless it occurs very near a gauge). Thus we are very reliant
on emergency management, spotters etc. to keep us informed of
any ice jam flooding issues.

Although our confidence level in actually realizing ice jam
flooding issues within our forecast area over the next few days
remains a bit too low to justify a formal Flood Watch, this
potential concern continues to be highlighted in both our
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) as well as in a Special
Weather Statement (SPSGID).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 510 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

- RECORD WARM HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL:

Although high temps will jump solidly into the 60s across most
of our forecast area Sunday afternoon (Feb. 8), existing daily
records in the low-70s at Grand Island/Hastings airports appear
to be out of reach (these are the two NWS-maintained sensors for
which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs).

HOWEVER, Monday (Feb. 9) carries a greater potential for
breaking existing records at both sites. Please note that *
indicates our latest forecast would would tie or break the
existing daily record:

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE   | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)
Feb. 9: 70 in 1996 | 71*
---------------
Hastings, NE (HSI)
Feb. 9: 70 in 1954 | 71*

- SIDE NOTE: Although occasional high temperatures in the 70s
  are not that uncommon at Grand Island/Hastings during the
  latter half of February, they are certainly less common during
  the FIRST HALF of the month. In fact, it has been 9 years now
  since both sites reached 70+ degrees during the FIRST HALF of
  February...since Feb. 10, 2017 when Grand Island soared to 77
  degrees and Hastings 74 degrees.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Davis/Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion