57°F
Updated:
9/13/2024
07:35:38am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
514 FXUS63 KOAX 131114 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 614 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least early next week, with widespread highs in the 80s. - Mostly dry conditions favored through the weekend, though can`t completely rule out some spotty late evening/overnight showers (10% chance). - The warm, dry, and occasionally breezy conditions could lead to some fire weather concerns in portions northeast Nebraska where fuels have dried the most. Primary concerns would be today and Monday. - A transition to a wetter weather pattern appears likely next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Early morning satellite imagery showed remnants of Francine spinning over northern AR and while associated clouds were clipping the forecast area, rainfall remained well to the southeast. Meanwhile to the west, a larger scale upper level trough was in control over the western CONUS with a cutoff low spinning along the MT/Canada border. The trough axis will push slightly eastward today with a surface front getting into north- central NE by late this afternoon/early evening. A few showers and storms will be possible in the vicinity of this front, with a few perhaps sneaking into northeast NE, but moisture will remain limited and guidance is in good agreement that the best instability will remain to our west. As such, latest short term guidance keeps precip largely to our west, though still about a 10-20% of rain sneaking into Knox, Antelope, and Boone counties by 9- 10 PM or so. Also want to note that by early Saturday morning, some guidance hints at some fog development in any areas that clear out (most likely southeast NE), as we see an influx of some low-level moisture. However, guidance does suggest winds just above the surface could stay up just enough to preclude widespread development, but it`ll be good to keep an eye on trends there. Otherwise, the aforementioned trough/low will push north- northeastward into Canada through the weekend, with upper level ridging building over us. This will help keep us warm and mostly dry into early next week, though there are some hints that some low level moisture transport points into/near the area Saturday, Sunday, and Monday nights perhaps giving us some spotty rain chances (less than 10%, but not 0). Higher chances will likely remain to our west and east through this period. Meanwhile another upper level trough will be digging into the western CONUS with guidance in decent agreement that another cutoff low spins north-northeast into Canada by late Tuesday into Wednesday, similar to what is progged to happen tonight. Also similar to tonight, a surface front will push east into the area and bring our next decent chance of rain (40-60%) Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The boundary looks to stay in/near the forecast area through the remainder of next week while the western CONUS trough edges farther east with bits of shortwave energy ejecting and bringing additional precip chances. So bottom line, it does look a little more active by the middle to later parts of next week. Still too early to talk severe weather chances in detail, but for what it`s worth the GEFS-based Colorado State Machine Learning Probabilities show some low-end severe weather chances (5%) in this timeframe. Finally, daily high temperatures are largely favored to remain in the 80s, timing of precip and cloud cover will almost certainly play a role, so a cloudy day in the 70s wouldn`t be out of the question Wednesday, Thursday, and/or Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 VFR conditions are likely through at least 06Z with some high clouds (especially at OMA), and increasing winds by late morning to 12+ kts. There is some potential for fog or low ceilings to develop mainly after 09Z, but forecast confidence not currently great enough to include in the TAF. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Barjenbruch
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
729 FXUS63 KGID 131145 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 645 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low end chances for a few spotty showers and thunderstorms tonight. Most areas will stay dry and severe weather is not expected. - Slightly above-normal temperatures continue through the weekend and most of next week. - After a dry start to September, chances for rain and thunderstorms increase through next week and into the following weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Currently, the local area remains in-between the tropical remnants to our southeast and a deep upper low to our northwest. The daytime today will be dry and breezy (gusts 20-30 MPH). There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms this evening. Initially, a few storms could develop in northern/western portions of the area on the tail end of the aforementioned upper low. Later overnight, spotty showers/storms could continue to develop further southeast, aided by weak convergence on a modest LLJ). That said, the latest HREF members are mostly dry, and most of the area will miss out entirely. Limited instability will prevent any organized severe weather threat as well. Dry weather is expected to continue through the weekend, with near to above normal temperatures (highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s and 60s). Deterministic models show a deep upper low moving into the west coast, which should bring us better chances for rain/t-storms next week. Low PoPs return as early as Monday afternoon, but global ensembles favor the Tuesday evening/overnight timeframe as the best chance for rain/storms as this system ejects through the central/northern Plains. Exact timing/progression of the upper pattern remains uncertain, therefore low PoPs continue Wednesday/Thursday. Then, another system may bring us another round of meaningful rain next Friday/Saturday. As of this morning (Friday Feb 13th), Grand Island and Hastings are 0.80-0.90" below-normal on precipitation in September. Through next weekend, the GEFS and EPS mean QPF are 0.75-1.00" above normal...effectively erasing this deficit. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Southeast winds will increase this morning, with gusts over 25kts at times through the mid afternoon. A few mid to high level clouds are expected through the afternoon. A few spotty showers/storms are possible through the evening and overnight, but the probability for this impacting EAR/GRI is low (10-15%). There is potential for low stratus to develop Saturday morning. The main timeframe of concern is outside of this TAF period, but the latest NBM shows a 30-50% chance for ceilings to drop to at least MVFR in the 12-15Z timeframe Saturday with higher probabilities to the east. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels
Navigation