Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

038
FXUS63 KOAX 191721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost
  for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Today and Tonight...

Northerly winds behind yesterday`s cold front yielded cooler
temperatures and gradually clearing skies as high pressure shifted
into the Central Plains. Overnight, temperatures dipped into the mid
40s as winds gusted out of the north at 20 to 30 mph. By noon,
temperatures had reached the mid 50s. Skies will clear through
the evening in northeast Nebraska, before scattered cloud cover
begins to build back in early Wednesday morning. Under the high
pressure and mostly clear skies, temperatures will drop well
below normal overnight. Lows are expected to bottom out in the
low 40s in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa, and the low to
mid 30s across northeast Nebraska. Light winds combined with
the cool temps could lead to areas of frost over northeast
Nebraska, especially in low lying areas. Therefore, a Frost
Advisory has been issued for locations along and north of a line
from Columbus to Fremont, NE, to Soldier, Iowa.

Wednesday through Thursday...

High pressure slides east of the forecast area Wednesday, as a
shortwave ripples out of the Rockies. Temperatures will rise back
into the upper 50s and low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will
remain slightly warmer than Wednesday morning, under southerly
return flow, only dipping into the low and mid 40s.

A few showers will sneak across the forecast area with the advancing
shortwave Wednesday night through Thursday. While a few rumbles of
thunder may be possible, forecast soundings indicate little to no
instability available with cooler temperatures, likely precluding
the chance for strong or severe storms.

Thursday Night and Beyond...

An upper low will drop south out of Canada into the Central Plains
Thursday night and Friday, bringing increasing chances for showers
and storms through the end of the week. While current model
solutions keep the more potent instability to our south over Kansas
and Oklahoma, variations remain in the timing and track of this
system. As such, it will be worth keeping an eye on for severe
potential, as solutions come into better agreement.

Although we may have to contend with ongoing convection and cloudy
skies, southerly low level flow will draw slightly warmer
temperatures into the region Friday, allowing highs to reach the mid
60s.

A cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early
Saturday, but is quickly followed by a ridge building into the
desert southwest. This will push warmer air back into the plains for
the upcoming weekend. The current forecast calls for highs into the
low 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

MVFR cloud cover will continue to slowly retreat to the east,
with KOMA scattering to VFR by 20Z this afternoon. Winds will
remain breezy out of the northwest today, with gusts up to 20 to
25 kts. Wind speeds dip below 12 kts this evening, becoming
light and variable overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

653
FXUS63 KGID 191617
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1117 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday (20-30%)
  and Wednesday night (40-70%). A mix of showers and non-severe
  thunderstorms may deposit up to 0.1-0.5" of precipitation.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances return each day between
  Wednesday and Sunday.

- Highs through Thursday will remain in the upper 50s to mid
  60s. A multi-day gradual warm up back to the 80s will then
  transpire over the weekend.

- A few patchy areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night
  into Wednesday morning for mainly Valley, Greeley, Sherman,
  Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026


Today we will finally take a pause from the mention of severe
weather as there will be no chance for any sort of precipitation
today. A more stable and cooler airmass has now blanketed the area
and will keep conditions generally more quiet for the next few days.
Winds this morning blowing out of the north to northwest between 15-
20MPH and gusting as high as 25-30MPH, will gradually slow down
later this afternoon and evening as higher pressure filters in near
the surface.

Highs through Thursday will mainly stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with overnight lows returning back to the mid 30s and 40s for the
next at least three nights. The potential for frost will make its
return back to possibly a limited northern portion of the area
Tuesday night. With lows nearing the mid 30s and with calming
overnight winds, frost formation could be possible in a handful of
locations north of I-80 (mainly across Valley, Greeley, Sherman,
 Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties). If this trend
continues, a Frost Advisory will need to be considered for these
locations overnight Tuesday.

The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as
the next low amplitude shortwave trough wobbles through the Central
Plains region. A few AM showers could pass near to just west of the
area (20-30% precipitation chance). The better precipitation
potential (40-70% chances) will come later Wednesday night as a mix
of shower and non-severe thunderstorms move into central portions of
Kansas/Nebraska. Given the cooler temperatures, a weaker CAPE
profile (041-
     046-047.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion