Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

900
FXUS63 KOAX 171900
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
200 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of snow will continue to move eastward and dissipate
  through 5 PM. A few isolated slick spots are possible, but
  will have low impact to travel.

- Warming trend expected through the weekend with highs in the
  80s by Friday and Saturday. Temperature records may be broken
  Friday and Saturday.

- The heat late this week will also drive low relative humidity
  values, increasing fire danger across the area. Saturday
  currently looks to be the hottest and windiest day of the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features swirling high pressure
centered over the California Coast, underneath a mid/upper ridge
that dumps out into the eastern half of the CONUS behind a departing
trough. A broad warm air advection pattern continues its spread
across the broader area, located east of a potent
downslope/warm front that stretches from southwest Kansas
northward into southwest North Dakota. Short-term model data has
been under-doing the strength of the lift across the area,
where visibilities have fallen to 1-3 miles at times and a trace
of snow has fallen. On the back side of the snow, model
soundings indicate that some sleet/freezing could take the place
of snow as it dissipates for an hour or two, but this so far
has not materialized. Overall snowfall chances are at their peak
now through 4 PM, making any visibility/road impacts limited to
non-existent during rush hour. The warm front to the west will
continue pushing eastward into the forecast area, helping
temperatures warm substantially as it arrives. Temperatures in
the 40s are forecast across much of eastern Nebraska while the
NE/IA border and eastward will be in the 30s early this evening
before cooling overnight. Some of the HREF members do have lower
visibility overnight as well across northeast Nebraska, closer
to where the main wind shift and front are, with a 30% chance of
it materializing despite strong winds just above the surface.

For tomorrow, warmer air will continue its push into the forecast
area, sending temperatures soaring past average temperatures. Highs
in the 60s and even 70s will be aided by increasing mid/upper
heights as the northerly jet streak departs, being replaces by
westerlies that source from the building thermal ridge over the High
Plains. Later in the evening, a weak surface low will shoot
southeast from the eastern portion of the Dakotas, dragging
through a weak front that could result in sprinkles to light
rain for extreme eastern Nebraska into Iowa into the overnight
hours. Beyond those sprinkles, precipitation will be few and far
between, spelling increasing dryness that could compound fire
danger later on.

Thursday and Beyond:

The latter half of the forecast period is characterized by the
aforementioned ridge to the west flattening out as it moves
eastward, with very poor moisture flux into the region. The larger
thermal ridge will spread eastward, carrying with it
increasingly warm temperatures that we will be able to mix
into. As it currently stands, potentially record highs are
forecast Friday and Saturday, that could push well into the
mid/upper 80s for Saturday before cooling Sunday into next week.
Winds will be the thing to watch, as increasing speeds will
mean increasing fire danger as the warm temperatures drive low
relative humidity. As of now, the strongest winds are expected
just ahead of and behind the incoming cold front Saturday into
Sunday, where gusts could exceed 30 mph. Area land managers,
farmers, and anyone working with sparking equipment will need
to exercise an abundance of caution, as any fires that do form
will be difficult to contain and fight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Mid/high-level clouds have increased overnight, and that process
will continue today with ceiling heights lowering to FL040-050
by 17-18z before gradually increasing thereafter. There is still
a 20-30% chance of a light wintry mix at KOFK, and a 20-30%
chance of mainly light snow at KOMA. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, confidence in those weather occurrences is
currently too low to include in the forecast. Light southeast
winds as of 10z will strengthen this morning with sustained
speeds of 13-17 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt expected from late
morning through this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening with
LLWS developing at the terminal locations.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

848
FXUS63 KGID 172038
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
338 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential dangerous fire weather conditions will be in focus
  all week. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CDT
  tonight with elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns
  anticipated each afternoon through Friday. Potentially
  widespread critical concerns return over the weekend.

- Clearing skies and warming temperatures expected from west to
  east later today and Wednesday as a warm front crosses the
  local area. Widespread well above normal temps (70s to near
  90) remain in the forecast Wednesday through Saturday. A few
  records could be broken!

- No significant chance for precipitation over the course of
  the next 7-10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Mostly cloudy skies, a few sprinkles and even some light sleet
impacted the local area this morning. Current returns on radar
area likely not reaching the ground, and should exit our Kansas
counties over the next hour or two. As a warm front makes its
way from west to east across the local area late this afternoon
and evening, expect some clearing - especially west of highway
281, and late afternoon high temperatures for these areas. Given
a modest surge in wind expected from the west with this warm
front, the Red Flag warning remains in effect for the western
portions of our Nebraska counties through 9 PM this evening.

Mostly sunny skies and the beginning of a significant warm-up
are expected across the local area on Wednesday as high pressure
in the upper levels of the atmosphere begins to expand from the
desert southwest into the plains. This should bring a surge in
temperatures over the next few afternoons, eventually peaking on
Saturday, before the ridge starts to flatten and a cool front
crosses the local area late in the weekend. As the upper level
ridge begins to break down on Saturday, expect winds to again
increase across the local area, with a breezy and warm/hot start
to the weekend likely meaning a return of potentially
widespread fire weather concerns across the area. That said,
fire weather concerns cannot be completely ignored Wednesday
through Friday either, as the airmass will be plenty dry but
stronger winds appear to be the limiting factor for more
critical concerns.

While the upper level ridge will flatten late in the weekend as
a cool front drops temperatures back down closer to climo by
Sunday, precipitation chances with this front look negligible,
with only a few of the GFS ensemble members now hinting at much
of a chance of precip over the middle of next week and the EC
ensemble members that do show some precip only hint at trace
amounts. As a result, could see possibly dry (or mostly dry
conditions) continuing until the last day of March or early
April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period with
clouds gradually clearing overnight and winds shifting and
becoming more westerly this evening.

Expect mid level stratus near 5-8KFT to gradually improve to
near 12 KFT over the next few hours as a warm front approaches
from the west. This front will also bring a shift in winds to a
more westerly direction during the evening hours. Will winds
will diminish after sunset, and a weak LLJ will keep the
potential for a few surface wind gusts to near 15 KTS through
around 10Z...when then LLWS should diminish with light westerly
winds less than 10 KTS can then be expected through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

As temperatures climb into the 80s later this week, a few record
warm temperatures could be in jeopardy across the local area.

Thursday March 19          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        79               84 (1921)
Grand Island                    78               86 (1921)

Friday March 20            Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        83               82 (1939)
Grand Island                    83               84 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        89               87 (1910)
Grand Island                    88               83 (1988)

In addition, record warm minimum temperatures will also be
possible Friday and Saturday.

Friday March 20            Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        46               46 (2011)
Grand Island                    44               50 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        47               47 (2012)
Grand Island                    47               54 (1911)

Temperature records for Hastings date back to 1907 and they
date back to 1895 for Grand Island.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-046-
     060-061-072>074-082-083.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
CLIMATE...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion