Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

214
FXUS63 KOAX 261103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and mostly quiet weather continues through Saturday, with
  only a few showers or thunderstorms possible.

- Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected
  Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110
  degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next
  week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Lingering showers should gradually dissipate tonight as a
shortwave trough moves east and out of the Plains. Surface high
pressure is situated over the northern Plains and this leads to
a quiet start to Friday with gradually clearing skies and
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. The aforementioned
surface high pressure begins to move off to our east Friday
afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and the return of southeast winds
push temperatures back into the upper 70s to low 80s during the
afternoon. Another shortwave trough swings across the northern
Rockies heading into Saturday. This strengthens lee troughing,
resulting in gusty southeast winds. This keeps temperatures a
bit warmer Saturday morning with 60s to start the weekend. By
afternoon, a weak disturbance moves out of the central Rockies.
This may produce a few thunderstorm over our area, but chances
are low and most of the day remains quiet. Temperatures continue
to be mild for one more day with low 80s across the area.

The first heat wave of summer builds across much of the central
and eastern US beginning this weekend. The worst of this heat
arrives Sunday into Monday. Strong south winds under the ridge
will help to push warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints
north. The strong winds are driven by persistent lee troughing
with a large trough persisting over the northern Rockies. Each
day temperatures push well into the 90s to near 100 with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Peak heat indices in the
100s are likely for many. The highest heat indices may be as
high as 105 to 110 degrees. This level of heat may require heat
advisories in later forecasts.

The pattern only changes slightly heading into next week. Hot
and humid conditions are forecast to continue, though
temperatures will be a touch cooler. With changes to the
strength and position of the ridge anticipated, this may allow
for the return of periodic rain chances. The exact details
remain a bit uncertain between ensemble members, but at least
some threat of evening or overnight thunderstorms as
disturbances round the ridge appears possible. As confidence in the
forecast evolution of the ridge improves this weekend, expect
more details on the best chance for thunderstorms. Given the
hot and humid conditions, any thunderstorms will have plenty of
instability to work with, though wind shear is more marginal.
Severe weather remains a possibility with this environment.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

MVFR cigs have spread north into southeast Nebraska this
morning, but should stay south of KOMA. These Should break up
around 20Z this afternoon but there is a 30% chance they hold
all day today. Expect more widespread MVFR/IFR cigs to
overspread the area overnight tonight with a 70-80 percent
chance of MVFR cigs and a 40-50% chance of IFR cigs around 800ft
from around 05Z to the end of the TAF period at 12Z at all
three terminals. Winds out of the northeast this morning will
shift to southeasterly by this afternoon and stay mainly out of
the southeast through the rest of the TAF period.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

312
FXUS63 KGID 261124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible through the mid morning hours with highs
  today in the upper 70s.

- Highs on Sunday in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees wit
  heat index values of 95 to 105 degrees.

- Hot and breezy conditions continue next week with highs in the
  90s and heat index values in the 90s to low 100s. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing across the area this morning under
overcast skies. Aloft a weak disturbance over the plains is embedded
within broadly zonal flow. Patchy fog currently located over
southwest Nebraska may sneak into western portions of the area
through the mid-morning hours, but dense or widespread fog appears
unlikely. Showers/fog will come to an end by the mid-morning hours
as the disturbance departs the area. Widespread stratus will be slow
to clear today limiting daytime heating, though sunshine returning
by the mid afternoon should allow highs to reach the upper 70s.

Another round of widespread stratus and fog develops over the area
tonight-Saturday morning. Within this stratus deck, drizzle or weak
showers are possible, though any accumulations will be
light/minimal. Similar to today, lingering stratus may be slow to
clear and lead to a slightly cooler day than currently forecast
(current highs low 90s southwest-low 80s northeast). Breezy winds
are expected during the day, gusting 20-30mph.

Southwesterly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday as troughing
deepens over the western U.S. Highs on sunday and Monday soar into
the 90s to around 100. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s combined with
highs results in heat index values topping out around 105 degrees
(near Heat Advisory criteria). Should the forecast remain on track
or increase slightly, a headline may be needed for a portion of the
area. Otherwise, southwesterly flow remains in place through the end
of the forecast period. This keeps above normal temperatures in
place with highs in the 90s and breezy winds each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For the rest of the day and overnight, scattered off and on showers
with very isolated thunder will be present through the evening
hours, tapering off overnight and towards Friday morning. The
latest guidance, including high-res ensemble guidance keeps the
bulk of any additional rainfall to the south and east of the
area. There is a potential that Rooks county could be clipped by
some stronger activity that slides southeast out of western
Nebraska and Kansas and could bring additional water concerns
if that does occur, but confidence is not high on that solution.

The upper level pattern shifts Friday as an upper low digs into
the Pacific Northwest. This causes the Central Plains to be
under southwesterly upper level flow with a low developing in
the lee of the Rockies. This will cause moist southerly return
flow to the region. The tightening gradient will keep winds
breezy at times, stronger than we`ve seen for a few days.
Likewise, temperatures will be much warmer, with highs quickly
returning to the upper 80s and low 90s for Saturday and then 90s
will be widespread on Sunday and Monday.

Model solutions indicate that 70+ dewpoints will surge back
north. The highest dewpoint values will be across eastern
Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri, etc. That being said, this will
be quite a shock to the system after the cooler past week has
been. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are possible
especially along and east of Highway 81. Contrastingly, the
dryline will set up across western Kansas and the moisture
gradient will be visible where the drier air is able to mix out
and temps surge even higher...primarily western portions of
north central Kansas.

As June ends and July begins next week, temperatures look to
stay in the 90s while the trough persists out west with ridging
to the east of the Plains. Disturbances ejecting out of the
upper low in the west could cause a few sporadic precipitation
chances to impact the area next week, confidence in any details
is low.

There is an indication that the pattern will break down towards
the end of the work week and holiday weekend begins which could
allow for slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances over the
holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings persist through the morning hours becoming VFR
this afternoon. MVFR-IFR conditions expected Friday night-
Saturday morning.

MVFR stratus will continue over the area through the morning
hours. Within this stratus, patchy fog is possible through
9-10am but visibilities look to stay largely above 6 miles.
Stratus rises gradually during the late morning hours, and
clears during the afternoon. Recent model guidance favors a
slightly faster clearing this afternoon, so the ending of MVFR
at KGRI was sped up where stratus is favored to clear first.
This will result in a window of VFR conditions from the mid
afternoon-late evening hours. Around midnight MVFR stratus is
expected to develop over KGRI/KEAR, with a chance to lower to
IFR during the early morning hours. Model spread in timing and
location precludes an IFR mention at this time, but it will
likely be needed. Additionally patchy fog is favored to develop
over the area Saturday morning. Some of this fog could be IFR,
though again spread in timing and location precludes a sub-VFR
mention at this time. For now have indicated this IFR
VIS/Ceiling potential with a 6SM BR OVC010 group.

easterly winds shift to the southeast and increase to 10-12kts
during the afternoon. Winds of 8-10kts are expected overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion