Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

159
FXUS63 KOAX 061848
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
148 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost is looking less likely tonight, as a shift to
  southwesterly winds overnight and dry conditions limit
  widespread chances.

- A low chance (10-15%) of showers is expected Friday morning,
  limited by dry air.

- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s to low
  80s by the end of the work week, with additional rain chances
  (30-60%) Saturday that favor southeast Nebraska and far
  southern Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon does a fine job illustrating the
largely depressed mid/upper pattern that continues to shunt most of
the country`s weather activity to its far east and southeastern-most
tiers of states, while a shortwave continues to move southeastward
into the Front Range of the Rockies. With Nebraska and Iowa being on
the interior side of the mid/upper trough, cooler-than-average highs
continue today, topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s as breezy
northwesterly winds continue. The main challenge of the short-term
forecast remains frost potential overnight, as lows fall to near
freezing and winds lighten up. The three things that will discourage
frost potential will be southerly winds that increase to 5-10
mph after 1 AM, a lack of surface moisture as dewpoint
temperatures range in the low-to-mid 20s, and overnight
temperatures that may over just above freezing. With those
factors in mind, we are currently going without a Frost Advisory
for the overnight hours, with no strong overlap of favorable
conditions before winds increase early tomorrow.

Thursday and Beyond:

Stepping forward into Thursday, dry surface conditions and
temperatures near climatological normal (which for this time of year
is 68-72 degrees). Another wind shift/frontal passage will occur
during the afternoon hours as a shortwave scoots through the
northwesterly mid/upper flow. As this happens, expect increased
cloud cover, but continued dry conditions as low-level dry air
proves to be too much for any hopeful rain drops trying to reach
the ground. Highs are on tap to reach the low-to-mid 70s
Thursday, and will only climb heading into the weekend before
topping out Saturday in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees.
Our dry spell will be tested Saturday, where the weakening
influence of the broad trough to the north attempts to steer a
compact shortwave heading through the northwesterly flow. Latest
trends in the global deterministic models has crept the axis of
rainfall southward, primarily just north of or along the
Nebraska/Kansas border (great for weekend outdoor events, but
not great for catching up for lost rainfall). With its passage,
we`ll see a cooler but near-normal Sunday, with rainfall chances
staying away from the forecast area.

Monday into the middle of the upcoming work week has strong support
for a building, negatively-tilted ridge over the western third of
the CONUS while the eastern third sees shortwaves replacing one
another to maintain a trough over that section. Highs will once
again surge into the upper 70s and 80s across the forecast area,
only being interrupted by weak shortwaves through the work week that
will keep us from warming too much before coming back down to near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will carry us through the TAF period, with
northwesterly winds with intermittent gusts reaching near to
just over 20 kts underneath mid-level clouds. Winds will
diminish quickly after 00z, becoming going from northwesterly to
variable for a few hours before directions all fall in line out
of the southwest overnight. Winds will remain increase slightly
in speed after 06z, with gusts returning for KLNK during the
early morning hours. towards the end of the TAF period and just
after, winds will be undergoing another direction change to be
northwesterly once again mid-afternoon Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Pearson

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

150
FXUS63 KGID 061955
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight into Thursday morning
  for most locations along and west of Highway 281.

- Light rain/sprinkles may develop (10%-15% chance) Thursday
  evening and night.

- Fire weather concerns increase Friday and Monday.

- Showers and storms (some possibly severe) may move across the
  area Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper trough extends from the Upper Midwest to the Desert
Southwest. Skies are mostly cloudy across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas with temperatures mostly in the
50s. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s tonight with
clearing skies. Winds will be out of the southwest tonight ranging
from 5 to 15 MPH. There is potential (around 50% to 60% chance) for
frost to develop tonight mainly along and west of Highway 281,
although there is some uncertainty in wind speed, moisture, and
temperatures. This will likely (80%-90% chance) be the last
frost/freeze potential for this season. Some isolated locations,
especially across the far western portion of the forecast area, may
experience temperatures as low as 32 degrees. A Frost Advisory has
been issued for tonight into Thursday morning for most locations
along and west of Highway 281.

Winds will mainly be out of the west on Thursday with temperatures
warming up into the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. A shortwave will
move over the area Thursday night and may result (10%-15% chance) in
some light rain/sprinkles across portions of the area. Winds will
begin to become northerly Thursday night with low temperatures
mostly in the 40s. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be
similar to those on Thursday. North to northwest winds are expected
on Friday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may
develop Friday afternoon, especially across western portions of
the area. Low temperatures Friday night will again be in the 40s.

A cold front will push into the region on Saturday, but temperatures
are expected to warm up into the 70s and 80s. A shortwave is
expected along with the front and may result (up to around 70%
chance) in showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.
There is potential for severe storms due to increase in lift, higher
CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. Severe potential will
continue to be monitored. The cold front will continue moving
through the area Saturday night with high temperatures on Sunday
mostly in the low to mid 70s. Winds will mostly be out of the south
on Monday with temperatures warming up into the 80s to low 90s. Fire
weather concerns increase again on Monday with wind gusts up to
around 20-30 MPH and humidity down to 15%-20% just west of the Tri-
Cities area. Similar high temperatures are expected on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Wind shear
may develop and impact both KGRI and KEAR between 08z and 11z.
Confidence is low so did not include at this time. Winds will
generally range from the northwest to southwest and may become
northwesterly again by 18z Thursday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday
     for NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072>074-082>084.
KS...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday
     for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion