Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

942
FXUS63 KOAX 170517
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1117 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of central into
  eastern Nebraska due to a combination of gusty winds (30-40
  mph), and dry conditions (15-25% RH).

- A wind shift will pass through this evening, complicating fire
  response and bringing low-end rain chances (10-25%) and
  sporadic gusts to 40+ mph.

- Warm temperatures Tuesday are on track to break or tie record
  highs across the area.

- Precipitation chances return to the Thursday, with snow and
  cold returning to the region into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows two southwesterly belts of
ascent and moisture pouring in from the Pacific, each lobbed
northeastward by their own mid/upper vorticity maximum off the
Pacific Coast. A recent hand analysis places us just to the south of
a stalled out frontal boundary that stretches from northern Illinois
to south-central South Dakota before arcing up into northwest
Montana. A fair bit of cloud cover will stall cooling where it`s
thicker, but even short peeks at the night sky will send temps
tumbling, especially closer to the stalled front and quieter winds.
Lows are expected to fall into the 40s to upper 30s, with winds
lightening up as we go through the night.

Another warm day is forecast tomorrow, with record-breaking or
record-tying highs pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Though it`s fun to have a nice warm day in February, extreme fire
danger will be the primary concern as that heat is joined by dry
conditions and gusty winds. Taking a look at model soundings, strong
warm air advection during the early morning hours is actually going
to delay some of the better mixing that we will be able to do for
most of the forecast area, locking away the 45-55 kt jet aloft until
the very end of the day for much of the forecast area. Despite that,
we will have access to gusts in the 30-40 mph range with the
strongest winds forecast over far southeast Nebraska where 850 mb
winds below the residual inversion are greatest. With limited access
to meaningful moisture return from the south, humidity values
will fall quickly as we mix into very dry air (evident in the
most recent 00z KOAX sounding) during the late morning and
afternoon hours. By 4 PM, RH values will have bottomed out in
the 15-25% range, making for extreme fire danger where those
conditions intersect gusty winds. Far southeast Nebraska will
see slightly higher RH values (30-40%), but the stronger winds
there will push them over the edge into extreme fire danger
based on previous events with the same conditions. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for extreme fire danger for much of eastern
into central Nebraska, while areas to the north and east still
expected to hit very high fire danger during the afternoon
hours.

During the evening hours, a frontal passage attached to the
system driving the warmth will pass through the area, resulting
in a few sprinkles/light rain showers that could evaporate into
the very dry low levels and accelerate into strong winds. As
sprinkle chances (10- 25%) move through, sporadic gusts of 40
mph or more could occur. The front will also bring a wind shift
that could complicate any fire response that goes into the
evening hours as well.

Wednesday and Thursday:

For Wednesday, the fire weather system will have pivoted to the
north and east, taking any remaining gusty winds with it as we
progress through the day. Temps will trend down compared to Tuesday,
only peaking in the 60s despite the westerly winds. We do have a
small window of potential overlap between residual westerly wind
gusts and warmth in northeast Nebraska, but very high fire danger is
going to be the better bet for the entire area due to lower
confidence how far north warmth surges.

From there, our eyes turn southwestward for the development of a new
weather system taking shape and pushing eastward across Nebraska and
Kansas Thursday. As it pushes eastward, models are in good agreement
that it will rapidly deepen and negatively tilt over the area and
pivot to the northeast. This will drag a cold airmass that will not
only serve as a shock to the system for those enjoying our recent
warmth, but also allowing precipitation to fall as snow. This rapid
intensification will lead to a potentially narrow (3 counties or
less in height) band of moderate to heavy accumulations that would
make travel extremely difficult. At the moment, we will have to
monitor model trends to track this moderate-to-heavy snow band
currently slated for Thursday, as even minor changes to the location
will mean boom-or-bust for snow lovers. Confidence is currently low
for any one location, with the best chances (30-40% based on the
latest info) for 4" or more being north of a line from Neligh to
Sioux City.

Friday and Beyond:

After the push of cold air settles in Friday morning (10-20 degrees)
highs are expected to bounce back well into the 30s for areas that
do not receive enough snow to coat the ground. From there,
mostly dry conditions are forecast as the main jet axis remains
just to the south of the area with northwesterly flow aloft.
Some bite will be taken off from the cooler northern air by the
longer sunlight, staying near to just-above normal through the
wherever Thursday`s snow misses.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions hold through the TAF period. Primary concern is
with winds as we have a dry front forecast to move through
bringing strong south/SSW winds ahead gusting to 30kt with winds
shifting to westerly in the evening. Even stronger winds around
1500 ft off the surface will be around 50 kt at times leading
to low-level wind shear, primarily toward Tuesday evening after
00Z, but we could have a short period Tuesday morning from
12-15Z where increasing winds at 1500ft ramp up faster than
surface winds leading to potential low-level wind shear at KLNK
and KOMA for an hour or two. Confidence isn`t high enough as of
yet to include this in the TAF, but potential is around 40%.
Will monitor surface wind trends closely.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ016-017-
     030>032-042-043-050-065-066-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

287
FXUS63 KGID 170534
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast
  period, with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Normal for
  this time of year are mainly in the low 40s.

- Expecting gusty winds to develop across the entire area for
  Tuesday, starting out the day from the SSW, turning more
  westerly with the passage of a frontal boundary. Drier air
  accompanying this boundary along with the warm temperatures is
  expected to result in widespread relative humidity values
  below 20 percent. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
  entire forecast area from noon-8PM Tuesday.

- A couple of disturbances crossing the Plains will usher in
  notably colder temperatures (closer to normal) and chances for
  precipitation. Thursday brings the best chances of
  accumulating snow, especially across the northern half of the
  area, as well as gusty NW winds.

- Following highs on Wednesday in the 60s, these disturbances
  will drop highs for Thu-Fri back into the 30s-40s. A gradual
  rebound is expected into early next week, with 40s-50s back by
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Currently through tonight...

The combination of light winds and well above normal
temperatures is making for quite a nice start to the new work
week. Upper air and satellite data showing a quiet pattern aloft
across the region, with zonal flow/broad ridging dominating the
central CONUS. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy, with
batches of upper level cirrus passing through the area. At the
surface, we`re sitting between areas of high pressure off to our
north and east, with overall weak troughing along the High
Plains. This is keeping winds light, around 5-10 MPH...with
varying direction. No big surprises as far as temperatures go,
with everyone topping out at least in the 60s this afternoon,
with readings near 70 across western areas.

This evening and tonight, quiet conditions continue. Models are
in good agreement showing the current zonal upper level flow
turning more southwesterly with time...as upper level troughing
currently over the West Coast pushes further inland. Expecting
to see more cloud cover overnight, with very mild overnight lows
tonight...mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s in the SE (normal is mid
teens-near 20). The threat of new record warm lows remains...see
the Climate section below for more.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall dry conditions remain in the forecast through the day on
Wednesday, with the main forecast concern during this period
remaining with fire weather concerns on Tuesday afternoon. More
details on fire weather specifics can be found in the Fire
Weather section below.

Looking at the daytime/evening hours on Tuesday, there hasn`t
been any significant changes in the models. Broad view, models
continue show a large area of upper level low pressure moving
into the Pac NW and continued troughing along the West
Coast...while a shortwave disturbance (currently over srn CA)
will be swinging northeast out of the Nrn/Central Rockies onto
the Nrn/Central Plains. Ahead of this approaching disturbance,
sfc troughing/low pressure over the High Plains deepens,
bringing more SSErly winds by 12Z Tuesday. Winds are expected to
increase in speed through the day, turning more SWrly ahead of
sfc trough axis during the morning, then switching to the west
as that boundary pushes through the forecast area. Tuesday
remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast period,
with increased mixing and downsloping westerly winds tapping
into a warmer airmass...forecast highs remain in the mid 70s for
most spots (a few spots reaching closer to 80 is not totally
out of the question), with record high temperatures looking to
be broken (see Climate section below). One question with
temperatures lies with cloud cover, especially across the
southern half of the forecast area, where models show the
potential for more cloud cover. The increased mixing and push of
drier air with the surface boundary is expected to bring a
notable drop in dewpoints, with the current forecast calling for
teens to push into western portions of the coverage area.

The lone mention of precipitation during this period remains in
the Tuesday evening period...but chances remain low around 20
percent. Models, to varying degrees, continue to show the
potential for at least spotty rain showers across ENErn portions
of the forecast area late in the day/evening, driven by that
sfc frontal boundary and main upper level trough axis swinging
through. These look to be short-lived chances, with models
showing the better precip potential focusing off to our NNE.

For the daytime hours on Wednesday, models show the area sitting
under upper level shortwave riding, set up between Tuesday`s
departing shortwave disturbance and the next one that will be
working its way into/through the Rockies. The wind forecast is a
bit uncertain, as we`ll be losing the influence of one area of
sfc low pressure (keeping winds westerly) and gaining the
influence of the next one deepening over the High Plains, which
will be switching winds back to more of SSErly direction.
Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected, with
low-mid 60s forecast.

Thursday on into early next week...

Following hot-by-Feb-standards temps on Tuesday, a taste of
winter returns for Thursday as snow returns to the forecast.
This next upper level shortwave disturbance emerges out onto the
High Plains late Wed night-Thu AM...taking a bit more of an
easterly track across the Central Plains, any northward progress
stopped up by Tuesday`s system which models have sitting near
the MN/Can border. Colder air is ushered in by the system`s
accompanying cold front, meaning the likely p-type is snow. The
best chances continue to favor the northern half of the forecast
area...and with this still a few days out and some model
differences, NBM PoPs are pretty broad, with 50-60 percent
chances through the Tri-Cities and 30 percent chances down into
north central KS. Latest runs of GFS/EC deterministic and
ensembles show a tighter gradient from north to
south...something to be worked on in the coming days. Latest run
of the GFS/EC trended the precip and snowfall amounts tied to
the west- east orientated axis of stronger mid-upper level
frontogenetical forcing a touch further north...both showing
areas south of I-80 with less than 10-20 percent chance of
seeing one inch or more of snow accumulation. Whether you get
snow or not, Thursday looks to be another windy day, with
northwesterly winds building across the area behind the cold
front...gusts of at least 30-35 MPH will be possible.

Additional low-end chances for precip remain in the forecast for
the end of the week Fri-Sat...but confidence in those chances
are not high, as models show some notable differences with where
other disturbances track and whether they bring precip at all
to the forecast area. Upper level ridging and dry conditions
return for the start of the new week Sun-Mon.

As far as temperatures go, following the 70s Tuesday and 60s
Wednesday, the reinforcing cold front passing through looks to
drop highs for Thursday and Friday back closer to normal in to
the 30s-low 40s. Expecting a rebound as we get through the
weekend/early next week, with highs by Monday back in the mid
40s-low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours
although there is a slight chance (less than 20%) of fog and/or
low ceilings from around 12z to 17z. Winds will generally be out
of the southeast overnight with winds increasing a little (up to
around 10 knots) by 12z. Winds will become more southerly around
15z to 18z. Winds will mainly be out of the southwest around 21z
and will increase to around 20-25 knots with gusts of 30 to 35
knots. Westerly winds are expected by 00z and will stay westerly
through 06z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the area
Tuesday afternoon, with western portions expected to see the
overall worst conditions.

Ahead of deepening surface low pressure over the High Plains,
the day will start out with increasing south-southwesterly
winds, with gusts near 25-30 MPH possible by late morning-
midday. A surface frontal boundary will be gradually pushing
east across the region during the afternoon hours, which will be
ushering in a switch to more westerly winds. Out of either
direction, gusts closer to and possibly exceeding 40 MPH will be
possible through the afternoon hours. The overnight hours
Tuesday night bring some relief, but still looks to be breezy
out of the west across much of the area.

Expecting well above normal high temperatures tomorrow, with
mid-upper 70s forecast (normal is mainly lower 40s), thanks to
increasing mixing potential into a warmer airmass ahead of the
sfc frontal boundary. This better mixing and a drier airmass
working in from the west is expected to result in dewpoints
falling into the teens and 20s...and combined with the forecast
temps, relative humidity values look to bottom out anywhere from
10 to 25 percent during the afternoon hours. The overall lowest
RH values of 10-15 percent are expected across areas mainly west
of Highway 281.

Decision was made to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning for Tuesday...no changes made to the area (the
entire forecast area) or time (noon-8PM). If looking at strict
RFW criteria, far SE areas are marginal, with potential for more
cloud cover and RH values currently forecast to bottom out in
the low- mid 20 percent range (criteria is 20 percent or
less)...but with the gusty winds expected and dry conditions in
place, felt it was best to include all 30 of our counties.

Though cooler on Wednesday, dewpoints remain low, and afternoon
relative humidity values may once again drop into the teens to
near 20 percent. Winds are expected to be lighter, transitioning
from westerly to start the day to more southerly by the end of
the day...but near-critical fire weather conditions will be
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record high temperatures and warm low/min temperatures are
likely to be approached/broken at various points Tuesday for
both the Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and
Hastings airport (records back to 1908).


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE            | LATEST FORECAST

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017                  | 78

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981                  | 77



- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE    | LATEST FORECAST

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981                  | 43

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972                  | 43

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion