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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


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NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


000
FXUS63 KGID 282130
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2022

Key Points:

1.) A wintry mix of freezing drizzle and snow expected for
Tuesday. Roads may be slippery for the AM commute.

2.) Strong north winds (gusts to around 40 MPH) through Tuesday
afternoon. Patchy blowing snow continues through mid-afternoon.

3.) Up and down temperatures, but mostly dry Wednesday through
the weekend. Next shot for meaningful precipitation will be next
Monday or Tuesday.

Details:
A cold front currently stretches across northern Nebraska and will
push across the area late this evening through tonight. As it does
so, we will see a band of light precipitation develop on the north
side of a surface low. With no saturation in the dendritic layer,
this precipitation will start as a mix of drizzle and freezing
drizzle. Through the morning, temperatures will continue fall
behind the front, and we will see some surfaces freeze over and
increasing coverage of freezing drizzle. Only a few hundredths of
ice accumulation is expected, but this will probably be enough to
lead to some slick roads through the morning commute. The HREF
indicates that the highest ice totals will stretch from near
Hastings/Grand Island to the north and east through Fullerton and
York areas.

The overall severity of ice impacts will be largely dictated by
the road temperatures. These are more uncertain, especially given
that temperatures are currently in the 50s and low 60s. Even so,
modeling does indicate that surface temps will dip below freezing
and ice over, at least briefly, Tuesday morning.

Later in the morning and the afternoon, increasing saturation
aloft will allow more snow to mix in. This snowfall, along with
strong north winds (gusts over 40 MPH at times) may lead to patchy
blowing snow and reduced visibility. This will mainly impact
areas north of I-80 where 1-2 inches of snow are possible, but the
large majority of the area will see less than 1 inch of total
snow.

Temperatures fall into the single digits and low teens by
Wednesday morning, and only rebound into the 30s for Wednesday
afternoon. A warming trend then takes hold for Thursday and Friday
as upper level ridging returns to the central CONUS. High
temperatures may reach the mid 50s for Friday. The current
forecast does not call for critical fire weather conditions, but
this will need to be monitored closely as it is possible that it
trends drier/windier.

A quick moving shortwave and cold front then move through for
Friday night and Saturday. This could lead to some flurries, but
any meaningful precipitation is favored to stay to our north.
Saturday will be cooler, but temperatures are expected to trend
back warmer again for Sunday ahead of the next system for the
Monday/Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022

Quiet conditions currently, but wintry precipitation is expected
Tuesday.

This mix of freezing drizzle and snow will be the main impact to
this TAF period. Drizzle/freezing drizzle may begin as early as
09-10Z Tuesday morning, with falling temperatures behind a cold
front. Lowered ceilings and reduced visibility will also accompany
this drizzle. This may transition to light snow late morning
through Tuesday afternoon, with continued north winds gusting to
around 35kts.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-073>077-085>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion