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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

FXUS63 KOAX 231121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Water vapor imagery this morning showing system that
wreaked havoc over the region has finally pushed off to the east and
was approaching the srn Great Lakes. Meanwhile a stratus shield
wrapping around the exiting system was making its way southward
thru the ern Dakotas and into the CWA.

Max temperatures the next several days appears to be the main issue
to contend with. Models are in agreement large scale flow will be
somewhat progressive the next several days with increasing
heights/upper ridge building in from the west. However, to what
degree will snow cover inhibit the potential for warmer conditions.
MET MOS is clearly too warm with highs this afternoon. MAV MOS
though looks or realistic, but maybe just a bit on the warm side.
The ECM though is the only model advertising a distinct area of
lower temps in the nrn CWA, where storm total snow accumulations
peak. Will follow along and drop max temps a bit north. For
Wednesday, except for the srn CWA, mid 40s/low 50s per the
MET/MAV are clearly too warm. And on Thursday, once again both
MET/MAV are too warm giving mid/upper 50s. Therefore significant
trimming is in order.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Dry forecast with relatively mild temps continues throughout the
extended periods. This, despite having a rather stout shortwave
crossing the central Plains Saturday night/Sunday. GFS/ECM/CMC all
prog surface high pressure over s-cntrl Canada stretching to the srn
Plains will inhibit any chance of moisture return to fuel precip
development this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Regional obs showing batch of stratus extending from the ern
Dakotas into ern NE on back edge of slow exiting upper level
system. Latest models indicate the low cigs will pretty much hang
tight at all terminals through this aftn. Expect gradual clearing
then during the evening hours tonight.





NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

FXUS63 KGID 231058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
458 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

We are left with a relatively quiet 7-day forecast in the wake of
the potent blizzard that blasted through the area yesterday.

There has been some pesky stratus that has persisted along and
east of a line from Ord to Hebron into the overnight, but this is
expected to exit the area this morning as drier air advects in
from the west. Later in the day, a moisture-starved wave will push
through the area, bringing with it some mid-level cloud cover.

Temperatures today are expected to reach the 30s across Nebraska
and near 40 degrees in parts of Kansas that are snow-free. I did
nudge temperatures down a bit over our northeast where snow cover
is deepest and most widespread.

Tonight should be the coldest night of the work week with low
temperatures in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as mid and
upper-level ridging dominate the region. There is quite the
spread in the guidance for high temperatures...especially on
Thursday. There will also likely be a big difference in observed
temperatures between areas that have 6-8" of snow on the ground
and areas that saw little to no snowfall. For now, have gone with
the consensus blend of upper 30s to near 50 on Wednesday and 40s
to near 60 on Thursday.

Late Thursday night into Friday, a weak shortwave is expected to
move out of NM/TX into OK/KS as a deeper trough digs in across the
western CONUS. This will push a front through the area Friday,
giving us a bit of a cooldown, but any precipitation is still
expected to focus well to the east of the area. Saturday and
Sunday will be notably cooler, but highs are still expected to at
least reach the 30s across the entire area.

Warmer weather will once again return Monday and Tuesday ahead of
another system forecasted to move through the region for the
middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Stratus cleared out of the GRI terminal overnight. VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period.

Broken mid to high clouds are expected to move in this afternoon
in association with a weak upper level wave, then skies clear

Winds will become westerly today, and will remain rather light
(5-10 kts, with a few gusts 10-15 kts).




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion