Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

187
FXUS63 KOAX 291020
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
420 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some sleet, freezing drizzle, and freezing rain are still
  being reported this morning across portions of the region. The
  wintry mix will transition to all snow as the morning
  progresses.

- The heaviest snow is expected to occur within a snowband
  extending from southern Saline County through the Omaha metro
  and up into Harlan, Iowa. The highest snowfall amounts are
  expected in western Iowa while ice accumulations up to around
  one tenth of an inch are possible for areas along and south of
  a line from Seward to Lincoln to Clarinda.

- The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remain in
  effect through tonight. Travel will be difficult today due to
  ongoing precipitation and the potential for some blowing snow.

- Expect the cold to continue through the start of next week.
  Monday will bring another chance for a few snow showers.
  Warmer weather will arrive Tuesday, sticking around through
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface analysis shows a low pressure system continuing to move
across Kansas and Oklahoma this morning, with warm air from the Gulf
advecting into the region. A wintry mix of precipitation continues
early this morning across the region, with snow, sleet, and freezing
rain/drizzle expected to continue. Early this morning, two bands of
snow have set up across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, sleet,
light freezing drizzle, or freezing rain reported between the bands
and toward the Nebraska/Missouri and Nebraska/Iowa borders. The
drizzle has left several areas with a glaze of ice on surfaces.

The northernmost band is associated with an area of frontogenesis
and has been increasing in intensity and coverage over the past few
hours. The band currently extends from Beaver Crossing and
Rising City through Valley up to Harlan and Tekamah. This band
will slowly move to the east while also filling in to the south.
This will eventually result in a transition from the freezing
drizzle to snow for the Omaha metro area. A second band of snow
extending from Wilber to Nebraska City to Shenandoah, Iowa has
also developed, associated with another area of frontogenesis.
Areas to the south of this band will continue to receive mixed
precipitation through the morning and possibly into early
afternoon. There is still some uncertainty in how much snow
areas south of the I-80 corridor will see due to transition time
with precipitation type. For areas along and south of a line
from Lincoln to Clarinda, 1 to 3 inches of snow are possible
through tonight. An isolated rumble of thunder may not be
entirely out of the question with the southern band as well.

Heading into the afternoon, precipitation is expected to taper off
from west to east. Most of the precipitation should be out of
Nebraska by 8pm and out of our Iowa counties before midnight. Winds
gusting as high as 35mph on the back side of this storm system will
cause some blowing snow across the region; however, the strongest
winds will not be co-located with the heavier snowfall. This will
limit the potential for blizzard conditions; however, the blowing
snow may result in some reductions to visibility and travel
difficulties.

The forecast remains on track with the highest snowfall amounts (5-7
inches of additional accumulation) occurring in the Harlan and
Missouri Valley areas, with lesser amounts heading to the west.
Areas south of I-80 may still receive up to around a tenth of an
inch of ice accumulation by the time this storm system has passed.
Expect difficult travel conditions through the day, with things
improving overnight into Sunday.

Bundle up if you plan on heading out the door Saturday night into
Sunday. Lows by Sunday morning will bottom out in the single digits
for areas north of Highway 92 and the low to mid-teens for areas
south. Wind chill values will fall to the single digits below zero
for most of us, with a few single digits above zero in extreme
southeastern Nebraska. Sunday high temperatures will be fairly cold,
reaching the teens for areas along and north of a line from Harlan,
Iowa to Columbus, Nebraska. Monday morning will be cold as well with
highs in the single digits to around 10 degrees for Lincoln and
areas north. Areas toward the Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri border can
expect temperatures in the low teens to around 15 degrees. Wind
chills will be mainly in the single digits.

Monday morning, a mid-level shortwave trough will cross central and
southern Kansas, bringing a 30-60% chance for some snow to eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa. Unlike the current storm, Monday`s event is
not expected to be mixed-phase precipitation, and should be all
snow. SLR values are currently forecasted to range from around 16:1
to 18:1, resulting in more of a powdery snow.

Tuesday through the end of the forecast period, northwest flow sets
up over the region. Expect some slightly warmer temperatures with
highs returning to the mid-20s to mid-30s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expect a cool down again Wednesday night/Thursday morning, with lows
in the single digits above and below zero. Thursday`s high
temperatures will struggle into the teens for western Iowa and the
teens to low 20s for eastern Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are observed at the start
of this TAF period along with a wintry precip mix. The wintry
mix will linger longer across KLNK, while a slightly earlier
change over to snow is expected at KOFK and KOMA. Ceilings and
visibilities may reach LIFR at times within any snow showers.
Winds will also be of concern, switching to the north northwest
with gusts of 25 to 35 kts expected late Saturday morning into
the afternoon hours at all three terminals. These winds may
result in areas of blowing snow further reducing visibilities.
Visibilities should improve to VFR sometime after 21 or 22z,
while snow should largely exit the area by 00z Sunday. May still
see lingering MVFR ceilings toward the very end of the TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ012-015-
     018-032>034-044-045-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ011-
     016-017-030-031-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ043-055-
     056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW/Mead
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

440
FXUS63 KGID 290834
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
234 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Storm Advisory remains in effect until 3PM today for
  counties mainly along and north of HWY-6.

- Snow accumulations of a trace up to 1" will be possible for a
  vast majority of the area with amounts increasing up to 2-3"
  towards the furthest northeastern portions of the area this
  morning.

- Wind gusts up to 35-45MPH this afternoon could cause a few
  areas of blowing snow, resulting in reduced visibilities and
  challenging travel conditions.

- Another wave of light snow looks more favorable for Monday
  morning (20-60% chances and greatest towards the south),
  potentially depositing up to 1-2" more inches of snow across a
  handful of locations. Mixed precipitation is not expected
  with this system.

- Lows will range the single digits to teens tonight and Sunday
  night. Wind chill values, especially tonight, could drop near
  and into the negative single digits.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025


The Main Story for Today:

As of early this morning, several bands of mixed precipitation have
sprung up all around, bringing at least a glaze of ice across a
majority of the area. Though most precipitation bands have not quite
transitioned to snow yet (as of 2:30AM), low-level temperatures
continue to cool, bringing the inevitable closer to fruition.
Forecast snowfall amounts have generally come down some this morning
(closer to T-2" compared to the previous 1-3" as the total coverage
area of these precipitation bands seems to be less expansive than
what models have been previously assuming.

The Winter Storm Advisory remains in effect for counties mainly
north of HWY-6 through 3PM from the mixture of the freezing rain and
accumulating snow later this morning. Though not all places may
receive a total of 3" of snowfall (normally Advisory Criteria), the
slick and icy roadways as well as the potential contribution of
blowing snow later this afternoon, could still create dangerous
driving conditions worthy of an advisory.

By the time everything is said and through, a majority of the area
(at least 90%) will of receive some snow (mainly a trace to just
over an inch) with places north and east of the Tri-Cities seeing
amounts up to 2-3". Once the snow accumulations taper off this
afternoon (clearing from from west to east between mainly 9AM and
2PM), blowing snow may be possible across areas that receive more
meaningful snow amounts. Winds gusts up to 35-45MPH this afternoon
should easily loft any non-compacted snow.


What`s Next?:

The current northerly winds blowing behind the low as it crosses
through Kansas will stick around through much of the day Sunday,
helping file in the even colder airmass through the weekend.
Temperatures as result will stay in the 20s to mid 30s this afternoon
and Sunday. Lows tonight will drop into the low single digits (for
our furthest northwestern areas) up to the teens (mainly north
central Kansas) with wind-chills near and just below zero degrees. A
similar story should return again Sunday night, though
temperatures/wind chills may stay a few degrees "warmer".

The other feature of note in the short-term will be the potential
impacts of a secondary sweep of light snow mainly on Monday morning.
Another disturbance is projected to eject out of the Rockies Sunday
night, quickly sweeping by southern Nebraska and mainly Central
Kansas. Early snowfall projections aim a corridor of 1-2" peak
snowfall amounts across areas near to just south of the state line.
Following today`s action, our forecast focus will narrow in on this
next system, fine-tuneing the details even more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

As mentioned in the key messages, the Winter Weather Advisory
was expanded to include a few more counties on the southern and
western side. Temperatures are slightly colder than expected and
though freezing temperatures have warmed as far north as the
Nebraska border, the tightening baroclinicity will be a focus
for some additional ice potential along the Highway 6 corridor.
Initially precipitation is very light such as drizzle, light
freezing drizzle or flurries...sort of what we are seeing now
across the area. That is expected to continue through the
evening but expand in coverage/intensity after 10 pm and
overnight with the upper level trough approaching. A steady
east/west band of precipitation will develop along/either side
of I-80 with the heaviest precipitation after 1 AM, with
precipitation on the south side starting as mixture of light
freezing rain/sleet. North of I-80 precipitation will largely
fall as snow but could have some mix initially. Farther south,
near the Kansas border and down into north central Kansas,
precipitation tonight will be mostly liquid in nature.
Temperatures to south will hold steady and only drop off very
late tonight.

Saturday will evolve from a messy mixture of precipitation
early in the morning, to very windy and cold conditions, then to
eventually some clearing later in the day. Whatever mixture of
precipitation is ongoing early will quickly changeover as a
surge of cold air pushing in to the area as the surface low
wraps up to the southeast. Far southwest areas, such as Rooks
and Osborne counties, should see very little precipitation as a
dry slot impacts that area. Farther north, a 2-3 hour period of
precipitation will heaviest prior to 9 AM but then should
quickly wrap up by early afternoon. As this happens, strong
northwest winds will push across the area between 8 and 10 AM
gusting over 40 mph and resulting blowing snow, reducing
visibility and some drifting snow in areas where 2 to 3 inches
of snow falls. The wind will last all afternoon and into the
evening hours and drop off to under 30 mph gusts after 10 pm
Saturday. Have kept some blowing snow in the forecast due to
wind in eastern through the evening. Temperatures will go
nowhere Saturday and either hold steady or fall some through the
day. Single digit wind chills in the afternoon will turn to
below zero wind chills for some areas Saturday night. This is
certainly the coldest couple days of the your cold weather
season.

Sunday is a dry day, but cold with passing clouds. Fortunately
winds will drop off but with highs in the 20s, temperatures will
be 20 degrees or more below normal.

A quick moving wave will slip across the area later Sunday night
and Monday morning. Good model consistency that light snow will
develop as the wave passes from west-to-east, centered on
Monday morning. Precipitation will be light, but the steady,
fluffy nature of the snow could easily add up to an inch or two.
Locations between I-80 and I-70 are favored at this time for
the accumulating snow. Winds will be light thankfully. However,
the timing of the snow may cause some minor morning commute
impacts.

The rest week remains chilly with highs in the 30s to lower 40s
as the region sits on the west of the large trough funneling
cold air from the north. No significant precipitation is in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Visibilities are expected to drop overnight as precipitation
develops and moves across the area. The precipitation will
likely start out as freezing rain or freezing drizzle then
change over to snow by/around 09z or 10z. Snow will continue to
be possible through the morning into the early afternoon hours.
Winds will transition from the east to the north by 09z to 12z.
Winds will strengthen out of the north to northwest around 15z
then will become stronger with gusts up to around 35 to 40 knots
beginning around 18z. Winds will weaken around 00z. Low
ceilings are expected through the morning hours and may last
into the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-073>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion