Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

815
FXUS63 KOAX 151732
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Powerful winds with gusts of 50 to 65 mph continue into this
  evening. Snow combined with the winds are resulting in
  whiteout/blizzard conditions which should come to an end this
  evening.

- Frigid wind chills expected Sunday night into Monday with
  values dropping into the -10 to -25 range, especially in
  northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.

- Chance (20-30%) for a rain/snow mix Tuesday. Warm up expected
  through the end of the work-week with highs reaching 80F by
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A powerful mid-latitude cyclone has developed over the Central
CONUS this afternoon, generally following the Norwegian Cyclone
Model framework for cyclone development. It started as a
baroclinic leaf yesterday deepening into a surface low with a
well-defined warm front and cold front. As the system passed to
our south, we remained north of the warm front with the warm-
conveyor belt providing isentropic ascent across our area early
this morning. This caused the light rain showers we saw across
much of the area through around 8 AM. We even saw some weak
elevated instability generate a few isolated lightning strikes
closer to the warm front over southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa. Going into this afternoon, we currently see that the mid-
level circulation continues to lag slightly behind the surface
Low, lending to this system not being fully mature just yet as
the surface Low is centered over north-central Missouri while
water vapor imagery shows the mid-level circulation currently
around northeastern Kansas. Because of this, we likely won`t see
the development of a TROWAL until well after this system is out
of our area.

Despite the lack of TROWAL, we do see a frontogenesis band has
developed on the northwest side of the mid-level circulation
across our area. This band of snow will continue to strengthen
and expand through the afternoon, with snow expected to continue
to spread eastward into the rest of eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa. While snow accumulations are expected to remain modest
(generally up to 4 inches), strong surface winds from this
powerful, deepening surface low will lead to great reductions in
visibility creating near-whiteout conditions at times. Winds
currently gusting to 40 to 55 mph will likely peak around 55 to
65 mph this afternoon before starting to weaken later this
evening. Snow should clear off to the east by 10pm with clearing
skies expected toward midnight. Despite clear skies, blowing
snow may continue to reduce visibility, especially in more rural
areas, into Monday as winds continue to gust to 30 to 35 mph.
Winds won`t relax significantly until Monday evening.

Now that we`ve talked about the wind and the snow, let`s discuss
temperatures. Monday morning is going to be Cold. Due to
temperatures dropping into the single digits and winds
continuing to be gusty, wind chill is expected to fall to around
around 10 below zero across southeast Nebraska down to around 20
to 25 below zero across northeast Nebraska and portions of
southwest Iowa. For this reason, we have a Cold Weather Advisory
in place for Monday morning for these areas to the north and
east that will see wind chill fall to -20 to -25.

Good news for those who are ready for warmer weather. Cold
temperatures don`t stick around for long. While Tuesday morning
will start out fairly chilly (temperatures in the single digits
to low teens), we see the strong ridge centered over the Sierra
Nevada`s expand eastward bringing a warm front through on
Tuesday. While temperature will only moderately warm on Tuesday
with highs into the 40s, much more significant warming is
expected into Wednesday.

Now I must mention that as the warm front moves through on
Tuesday, we do see 30-40% chances for precipitation mainly across
our northern counties. As this starts Tuesday morning, we may
see some light snow transition over to rain by mid-to-late
afternoon before it clears out in the evening.

Much warmer temperatures arrive starting Wednesday with highs
back in the 60s east to mid 70s closer to central Nebraska. As
the ridge remains locked in place to our west, we continue to
see warm-air advection continue the warming trend into Thursday
and Friday with no precip in sight. Highs appear likely to peak
on Friday in the low-to-mid 80s, approaching record territory.

Going into next weekend, we see the break-down of that strong
upper-level ridge. As this occurs there is some potential
temperatures cool back down toward Sunday-Monday. Still, not
seeing any mentionable chances for precipitation through next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A powerful storm system has brought strong winds and snow to the
area this morning. We`ll continue to see snow expand eastward
reducing visibility to IFR/LIFR at the terminals. Winds are out
of the north-northwest gusting to 40-45kt, with gusts to 55kt
possible through the rest of this afternoon. Snow and low clouds
will clear off west to east, clearing out of KOFK around
20-21Z, and KOMA and KLNK around 00-01Z. We`ll likely continue
to see blowing snow reduce visibility at at least KOFK and KOMA
into the evening, where snow totals will be a bit higher than at
KLNK. Winds will start to weaken around 03-06Z, allowing
visibility to improve. Once visibility improves, expect VFR
conditions with only a Few-Sct clouds around FL150-FL250 into
Monday morning. Winds will remain out of the north-northwest
through the morning, gusting to 30-35kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-
     012-015-017-018-031>034-043>045.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090>093.
IA...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-056.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-
     055-056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

864
FXUS63 KGID 151136
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for northeastern portions
  of the area from 7am to 7pm today.

- High-wind (gusts near 65 MPH) remains on-track for today.

- Today through Monday will be bitterly cold, but it will not
  last for long. 70s and 80s return for Wed-Sat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The cold front is just nudging into western Dawson County as of
2am Sunday morning. Generally, the initial surge of winds
behind the front has been producing gusts ~50 MPH, but stronger
gusts are expected during the daytime today. All areas have a
high chance (70%+) to see gusts in excess of 60 MPH today. This
ill be especially problematic for ongoing fires south/west of
Gothenburg. Additionally, the winds may result in blowing
dust/ash in areas downwind of the burn scars. Winds will only
slowly taper off this evening into tonight...which will
contribute to very cold wind chills (-5 to -15 degrees).

The bulk of accumulating snow with this system is still expected
to be to our north and east, but some areas may see just enough
accumulation (around 1") to have some travel troubles. The
primary area of concern is along and northeast of a line from
Ord to St. Paul to York. Given the warm ground temperatures,
much of the snow will melt off the roadways, but crashing
temperatures could lead to some slick spots...especially on
bridges. Because of this, along with the potential for periods
of poor visibility, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued.

Tonight will be bitterly cold. Although it will likely end up
short of Cold Weather Advisory criteria (wind chills -20 or
lower), it will still be the coldest morning in quite some time.

Winds will continue to diminish on Monday, and temperatures will
remain in the 30s for most of the area. A strong warming trend
then takes hold for Tuesday, and widespread 70s and 80s are
expected by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Surface low pressure in Wyoming has warm front extending
east/southeast into Kansas. This front has been slower than
anticipated, thus keep a more southeast wind across north central
Kansas and south central Nebraska. High clouds also streaming east
off the front at this. The slower movement, winds and clouds and
held temperatures back a bit today though Cambridge did manage to
reach 70 degrees.

The warm front will make some progress north and east but may not
clear the entire area, nonetheless its a mild evening for the area.
Weak lift as the upper trough moves closely could trigger some
spotter virga/light showers for some areas this evening though the
risk for measurable precipitation  is very low given the dry
atmosphere. Though not in the forecast, there may even be a
lightning strike northeast of Grand Island later this evening
with some mid-level instability.

Honestly, the main story is the wind overnight through Sunday. Moved
up the start time of the High Wind Warning to 3 AM to cover the
potential gust above 55 mph along the initial cold frontal surge,
which will rapidly move across the forecast area between about 2 AM
and 6 AM. The winds only increase from there during the day Sunday
and have actually increased wind gusts to the 65 mph range, and I
wouldn`t rule out a 70 mph report, especially if some more clearing
can take hold. Aside from the wind, some light snow will skirt
across the northern/eastern areas. Right now, snow amounts would
be very light and not amount to much, but with the high winds
visibility would be reduced, especially north of Nebraska
Highway 92 for a time. Again, probability of even an inch of
snow is very low. Skies may start to clear late Sunday afternoon
from the west. If that clearing starts early, that could allow
for winds to mix down even more. Also, temperatures will go
nowhere Sunday and probably drop during the day. What a shock to
the system.

The High Wind Warnings goes into Sunday evening, but after
9 pm winds will slowly drop off, through remain gusty through
Monday morning. The main story by this time will be bitter
cold wind chills overnight Sunday and early Monday, well below
zero for most of south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas. Temperatures do rebound a bit Monday with sunshine but
will still be 15-20 degrees below normal.

The warmup starts on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Strong north-northwest winds continue today. Gusts to near 50kts
are expected at times. Winds gradually taper off this evening
into tonight.

MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings continue through early
afternoon. Light snow is expected...mainly 14-19Z today,
although little to no accumulation is expected. Visibility could
dip below 1 mile during periods of heavier snowfall.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-047>049-063-064.
KS...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion