Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

343
FXUS63 KOAX 221817
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold air remains in place through Monday with highs in
  the 20s and 30s. Wind chills could dip to 5 to 15 degrees
  below zero late tonight into early Monday morning.

- A Temperatures will gradually warm through the upcoming week.

- A mid-week system will bring a 20-40% chance for rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today through Monday...

Northwesterly flow continued to draw cold air into the central CONUS
today. Overnight, low temperatures dipped into the single digits
above 0. A tight pressure gradient between a departing shortwave to
our east and a ridge to our west increased winds across the region.
Gusts up to 20 to 30 mph this morning resulted in windchills of
-5 to -15 across the majority of the forecast area. By noon,
 clear skies and plenty of sun allowed temperatures to slowly
 rise back into the upper teens and low 20s.

Temperatures will slip as low as 5 degrees below 0 tonight, with
wind chills again around -5 to -15 Monday morning. The upper ridge
will continue to edge eastward, bringing warmer air back into the
region for the upcoming week. While the remaining snowpack will
limit the core of our CWA to the mid and upper 20s on Monday,
locations with bare ground near the South Dakota and Kansas borders
will likely rise into the mid and upper 30s.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

Warm air advection strengthens early Tuesday, with afternoon
temperatures pushing into the 50s, approaching 60 over bare ground,
and 40s across snow-covered regions.

Winds will shift to the north by Tuesday afternoon, as a dry cold
front, associated with a low moving into the Great Lakes, sweeps in
from the northwest. Temperatures may slip a few degrees behind the
front for Wednesday, but are still expected to remain above normal,
in the 40s and 50s.

Our next chance for light precipitation will arrive late Wednesday,
as a shortwave moves out of the front range. While initially rain
will be possible, a reinforcing shot of cold air and falling
temperatures overnight should lead to a change over to snow. The
current track of this system keeps any heavier snow potential well
to our northeast, over northern Iowa, with only minor accumulations
possible over the forecast area. However, a southward shift of this
system could mean colder air and more snow for the forecast area.

Thursday and Beyond...

Warm air advection returns behind the departing low, allowing
temperatures to bounce back into the 40s and 50s Thursday, and
potentially 50s and 60s on Friday.

Unfortunately, the warm up may be short-lived. A trough looks to
sink into the central CONUS by early next week, bringing colder
temperatures and another chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period. Breezy
north winds will occasionally gust to 25-30 kts, but should be
diminishing through the afternoon. Expect speeds to dip below 12
kts by 22Z. Winds will be light and variable early Monday
morning, before becoming southeasterly around 14-15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

305
FXUS63 KGID 221929
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
129 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight is expected to be the coldest night of the week.
  Subzero wind chills are expected for most of the area.

- Monday will be a bit warmer than Sunday, and a significant
  warmup is still expected for Tuesday through Friday. The fire
  weather threat will increase...especially late next week.

- Light rain showers are expected late Wednesday afternoon
  through Wednesday night. A few snowflakes could mix in, but
  the probability for any accumulation is low (10% or less).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Skies remain mostly clear and winds will go light/variable
tonight, allowing temperatures to dip into the single digits for
most. Northern areas with remaining snowpack could even see
subzero air temperatures by Monday morning.

Southerly winds return on Monday as surface high pressure
pushes off to the east. This should allow most of the area to
rise above freezing, and the southwestern fringes of the area
(Cambridge, Phillipsburg, Stockton/Plainville) could even make a
run at 50 degrees!

Tuesday is still expected to be a significant warmup,
especially compared to this past weekend. But the forecast has
actually trended a bit cooler thanks to increased cloud cover
and the passage of a weak cold front.

Clearing skies and a more westerly wind component should push
temperatures to the 60s for most of the area on Wednesday.
Global ensembles are now in better agreement of precipitation
timing, and now highlight light Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening as the most likely timeframe to see a few rain
showers. A handful of ensemble members are cold enough to see a
few snowflakes, but any accumulation is unlikely (10% chance or
less).

As the system responsible for rain showers Wednesday night
departs, Thursday will be slightly "cooler," but highs are still
expected to reach the 50s...a solid 10-15 degrees above normal.
Friday then bounces back into the 60s and 70s ahead of another
shortwave arriving for the weekend. The warmth this week will
result in a heightened fire weather threat most through most of
the week. At this time, but at this time the highest potential
to see at least near- critical conditions is on Wednesday and
Friday (30 to 50% chance).

The system next weekend will likely result in at least a couple
below-normal days as we begin the month of March. Accumulating
snow is also possible (20-40% chance) next Sunday into Monday
(March 1-2nd).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is high confidence (95%) in quiet VFR conditions through
the TAF period. Only a few high clouds are expected today
through Monday.

Northwest winds taper off late this afternoon, and winds become
light/variable tonight. Breezy south winds return for Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion