Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

378
FXUS63 KOAX 111850
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot and dry weather will last through at least the
  upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Patchy fog may develop a few mornings this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Pretty quiet across the area today as a shortwave trough was pushing
off to the southeast and large-scale upper level ridging was
building in. While there were a few clouds around, they were
showing signs of dissipating as the ridge was building in, with
temperatures as of 1 PM mostly in the mid 80s.

As the ridge amplifies through the week, we`ll continue a warming
trend, with widespread highs in the 90s by Monday, with a few spots
making a run at 100, especially near the NE/SD border where warmer
air aloft will be present. While guidance keeps the primary plume of
70+ dewpoints mostly to our east, we all know what corn can do this
time of year, so think we`ll have at least mid to upper 60s
dewpoints across a good chunk of the area most days. This will allow
heat indices to climb toward 100. We`ll see how things trend in the
coming days, but if dewpoints end up being higher, we may see a day
or two reaching heat advisory criteria.

By late in the week, guidance suggests the primary ridge axis will
slide back west while the warmer air aloft pushes slightly southward
as a shortwave trough rounds the top of the ridge. Consensus
suggests we`ll continue to warm with highs in the mid to upper 90s
and few 100s, but given our proximity to the shortwave, not highly
confident in that, as some clouds, or even precip could clip the
area. For now, precip chances remain below 10%, but we`ll definitely
want to keep an eye on trends, as temperatures could be impacted.

Otherwise, another thing to keep an eye on will be patchy fog on
some mornings given light winds and clear skies. At this time, model
soundings suggest winds aloft will stay up a bit compared to this
morning, so wouldn`t expect widespread development. However, with
the extra moisture from evapotranspiration, the potential for at
least a little fog is definitely there.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with current clouds
gradually rising and dissipating. A few pieces of guidance hint
at fog development again overnight, but winds aloft look to be a
bit stronger than last night, so not expecting it to be as
widespread if it does develop. Otherwise, winds will remain
light and southeasterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

722
FXUS63 KGID 111955
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No rain or thunderstorms are expected through at least Friday.

- High temperatures will gradually warm with highs around 90 on
  Sunday to the upper 90s by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This is about as quiet of a weather pattern as you will see with
a significant 500 mb upper level ridge of 590-600dm, which is
anomalously high even for July. The upper level ridge will
establish itself over the northern plains on Sunday and then
gradually recenter further south over Nebraska for most of next
week. This pattern will make it difficult to even see much in
the way of cloud cover through the week ahead so expect sunny,
hot, and dry weather to prevail all week.

Forecast models are indicating lower dewpoints than we would
typically expect this time of year (afternoon dewpoints around
60 later this week). Model dewpoints today have been a bit too
low and am wondering if that model bias will remain the case
this week given the significant widespread crop
evapotranspiration. If our dewpoints end up being a little bit
higher, that will also push our heat index values higher as
well. Consequently, would not be surprised if our currently
forecast heat index values (lower to mid 90s most of the week)
end up being a bit more uncomfortable than currently advertised.
At this point given no expected precipitation, the main forecast
concern will be monitoring the rising temperatures through the
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A very quiet weather pattern is setting up across the area with
light south to southeasterly winds and clear to mostly clear
skies. This is a higher confidence VFR forecast. However, there
is a slight possibility for MVFR ceilings (fog) right around
daybreak on Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion