Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

874
FXUS63 KOAX 211800
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
100 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and few thunderstorms are expected tonight
  into Friday (70-95% chance). Severe weather is not expected.

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry
  conditions expected for the holiday weekend.

- Our next chance of rain arrives later next week, but there is
  considerable uncertainty in timing and coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Relatively cool and quiet weather is anticipated through this
afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s under partly cloudy
skies. Our next weather system begins to overspread the region
tonight. Widespread rain chances (70-95%) expand across the area
from west to east through Friday. A few thunderstorms remain
possible, especially as a small amount of instability develops
Friday afternoon. No severe weather is anticipated due to the
limited instability. Temperatures remain cooler in the 60s due
to rain and cloud cover.

As this system departs the region this weekend, a warming trend
takes over. Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure
supports increased sunshine and mostly dry weather through the
weekend into early next week. Temperatures climb into the 70s on
Saturday, to near 80 on Sunday, and into the mid 80s on
Memorial Day. Enjoy the beautiful weather!

By the middle to end of next week, forecast guidance begins to
diverge substantially. A large trough is set to move into the
West Coast early next week. The evolution of this feature as it
moves onshore later in the week remains split amongst
ensembles. The timing and location of this feature as it
approaches our area is uncertain at this time. That being said,
expect temperatures in the mid 80s each day with at least a low
(20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms at times,
especially during the afternoon. Eventually, more substantial
changes in the forecast should coincide with the ejection of the
aforementioned trough. Stay tuned as forecast confidence
increases over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with peaks of sun and
scattered cumulus between 3-5 kft. Denser mid to high level
clouds linger across southern portions of the area during this
time. A weather system approaches the region this evening.
Ceilings will gradually fall as this occurs. MVFR ceilings are
anticipated this evening at OFK and LNK with OMA expected to
fall later tonight. IFR ceilings will likely follow at OFK and
LNK tonight. Rain coincides with the decreasing ceilings, likely
restricting visibility to MVFR at times. A rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out, but the best chance of thunderstorms does
not arrive until Friday afternoon. Winds remain mostly light at
the east-southeast through the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

536
FXUS63 KGID 212023
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
323 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers this evening-Friday morning. Overall
  chances are highest along/northwest of the Tri-Cities.

- Rain accumulations range from 0.10" in the southeast to 0.5-1"
  or more in the northwest.

- Highs climb into the 80s Sunday onwards with scattered, low
  confidence chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This afternoon-Friday...

Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest
Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough
begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to
gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor
instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The
most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the
overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and
northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest
rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that
pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning
hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the
front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid-
late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop
along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway
81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east
of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10"
across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1"
across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble
guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the
area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of
rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across
southeastern portions of the area.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the
low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%)
for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday
afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that
develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak
into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday
evening.

Sunday Onwards....

Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into
early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly
winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves
into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional
chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this
troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details
are uncertain at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR conditions expected tonight-Friday morning. While
there remains some uncertainty on the exact timing, ceilings
lower to MVFR as scattered showers move into the area this
afternoon/evening. By the mid-late evening hours, low MVFR
ceilings become IFR as showers become more widespread. Within
these more widespread showers, embedded thunderstorms are
possible. Ceilings lower to LIFR around midnight as scattered
showers/storms continue past sunrise. Within showers/storms
MVFR-IFR visibilities are possible. Around sunrise, a cold
front begins to approach from the west (first impacting KEAR),
with ceilings increasing to IFR then MVFR or VFR by the end of
the TAF period. There is some uncertainty on how fast the cold
front clears the area and thus how quickly KEAR/KGRI transition
to MVFR/VFR, though these details will become clearer overnight.

Southeast winds sustained around 10-15kts will continue into the
overnight hours. Around sunrise on Friday, winds shift to the
south, then west-southwest behind a cold frontal passage. Winds
eventually become northwesterly just past the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion