Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

384
FXUS63 KOAX 282301
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
601 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers ongoing across portions of eastern Nebraska and
  western Iowa this afternoon. Despite the precipitation showing
  up on radar, some of it may be evaporating before it reaches
  the ground.

- A Frost Advisory has been issue for portions of eastern
  Nebraska for tonight. Temperatures are expected to fall into
  the low to mid- 30s overnight, in combination with light winds
  decreasing clouds.

- A shift of the pattern comes in time for the weekend, bringing
  some warmer temperatures to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Radar this afternoon shows areas of showers moving across eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. Expect maybe a few hundredths of an inch
of precipitation with these showers for those lucky enough to get
anything. Despite the decent looking precipitation showing up on
radar, we have had virga (rain evaporating before reaching the
ground) in some locations today. This will limit some potential for
accumulations.

Heading into tonight, a Frost Advisory has been issued for portions
of eastern Nebraska. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the
low to mid-30s overnight with winds under 5mph in many areas. Clouds
are expected to decrease across the advisory area, becoming mostly
clear. The main question with the frost potential tonight will be
how quickly the clouds move out. Areas that hold onto cloud cover a
little longer than expected may not receive any frost. Held off from
putting fog into the forecast for now as cloud cover may limit some
potential.

Wednesday, surface high pressure moves into the region bringing
some slightly warmer temperatures. Expected highs will warm
into the upper 50s to mid-60s with west winds approaching
5-10mph.

A cold front drops in from the north on Thursday, ushering in some
slightly cooler air. Temperatures will range from the mid-50s to low
60s for areas along and north of I-80 with mid-60s for the I-80
corridor and locations south of it. There will be another chance for
a few showers/storms along and ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon. Areas of frost will be possible Thursday and Friday
mornings.

Heading into the weekend, expect dry and warm conditions as a ridge
shifts east, putting us under northwest flow. Expect a gradual
warming trend with highs reaching the 70s by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Showers are dissipating across the area so have removed their
mentions KOMA and KOFK due to probabilities less than 30%. Have
maintained VCSH at LNK until 9pm. Otherwise expect winds to
continue to slow and become light and variable overnight (mostly
northwest). Fog is expected to impact central Nebraska but stay
west of eastern Nebraska TAF sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

873
FXUS63 KGID 290358
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1058 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- In the wake of this afternoon`s rain, additional/intermittent
  chances for showers and maybe a few weak thunderstorms will
  arrive Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Not
  "soaking rains" rains by any means, but more needed rain
  chances all the same.

- The likelihood for frost and/or slightly sub-freezing
  temperatures exists on least 3 of these next 4 nights (the
  main possible exception being Wed night-Thurs AM). A Frost
  Advisory has been issued for our entire forecast area (CWA)
  for late tonight-Wed AM, with additional Advisories probable
  later in the week.

- Precipitation-wise in the longer term: MOSTLY dry weather will
  likely prevail the majority of Friday-Tuesday (and especially
  Fri-Sat). However, intermittent low-confidence/low
  probability chances for showers/mainly weak storms re-enter
  our forecast Sunday night onward.

- Temperature-wise: Seasonably-cool conditions persist through
  Friday-Friday night (highs mainly low 60s/lows mainly 30s),
  before a gradual/modest warm-up takes hold thereafter with
  highs mainly upper 60s-mid 70s and lows mainly upper 30s-mid
  40s). In other words, no truly hot weather in sight!

- On a positive note: it still appears that we`re likely at
  least a week away from any possible concerns for severe
  thunderstorms and critical fire weather conditions (although
  near-critical fire weather conditions probably cannot be ruled
  out by early next week).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- No truly significant changes noted versus previous 7-day
  "forecast package" issued early this AM.

- Simply making a broad commentary/big picture theme of the
  various Key Messages above, this forecaster`s biggest takeaway
  is that we`re really looking at a fairly ideal weather pattern
  for this of year...especially from a lack-of-hazardous-
  weather (mainly from a severe thunderstorm/fire weather
  perspective and not counting frost/freeze as truly hazardous),
  and also from a "drought damage control" perspective. In
  other words, although we`re not expecting truly
  heavy/"drought- busting" rains over the next week, we ARE
  calling for only near-to-slightly above normal temperatures
  (at most) and an overall lack of windy days...keeping soil
  moisture evaporation to a relative minimum (especially
  compared to earlier this spring).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. May 5):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Although we had at least modest rain chances in today`s forecast
for a while, this forecaster will readily admit that the
coverage/duration of steady/numerous showers today has exceeded
expectations from 24 hours ago. Instead of being more
isolated/scattered, showers have instead been more widespread in
coverage (especially in our Nebraska zones). While low freezing
levels and resultant radar "bright banding" caused raw radar
over-estimation of rain amounts in some places (especially early
this morning...word of caution on that), ground truth from
dozens of airport/mesonet stations confirms that the vast
majority of our CWA has picked up (or will still pick up) at
least 0.05-0.15" today, with isolated/spotty pockets of at least
0.25" (including much of Dawson County which was largely missed
by heavier rain over the weekend). One one final "past weather"
note, based on obs JUST west of our CWA at North Platte/Broken
Bow, it`s possible that a touch of wet/slushy snow mixed into
the rain mainly in our extreme northwestern CWA, but likely with
zero accumulation within our borders.

As of this writing, rain has cleared out of most of the
southwestern half of our CWA, while showers continue drifting
across much of our northeast half. In the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
that a low amplitude (but very evident) shortwave trough is in
the process of passing directly overhead our Central Plains
region, with the rain gradually exiting from west-southwest to
east-northeast as it passes. At the surface, surface high
pressure centered slightly to our north has promoted fairly
light (mainly around 10 MPH or less) north-northeasterly breezes
today.

Due heavily to the "over-acheiving" coverage of rain and
associated widespread clouds, high temps this afternoon will
easily fall 5+ degrees short of expectations from only 12 hours
ago in some areas (especially our northern 2/3rds)...with highs
now expected to range from no more than mid-upper 40s in most of
our Nebraska zones, to low-mid 50s mainly in KS and Thayer
County area.


- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight):
Between 7-9 PM, any lingering light showers still ongoing in our
far northern/eastern CWA will steadily depart off to the east.
Off to our west, a few showers/weak storms will likely develop
over southwest NE/northwest KS, but should fade away before
potentially infiltrating our far southwestern CWA.


- LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED AM (post-midnight):
Although there is very high confidence in dry conditions and a
departure of mid-high level clouds, there is still at least
modest uncertainty in how efficiently lingering lower level
stratus clears out. However, confidence is gradually increasing
that we`ll likely see a pretty efficient clear-out (except for
perhaps some lingering patches of stratus here or there), as a
roughly 1023 millibar surface high pressure center settles
directly over our CWA. ASSUMING skies clear as expected,
temperatures will surely drop quite efficiently, with late night
breezes mainly averaging under 5 MPH from the west-northwest. If
anything, low temps were nudged upward very slightly (perhaps
not the right direction?), but the vast majority of the CWA is
now expected to bottom out 29-36 degrees. While especially some
northern/western counties will surely drop slightly below
freezing, areas of frost are likely to develop almost anywhere
in our CWA. Instead of "splitting hairs" a bit and issuing both
a somewhat marginal Freeze Warning and a Frost Advisory, decided
to simplify messaging a bit and issue a CWA-wide Frost Advisory
to cover the main impact to tender vegetation (a Freeze Warning
would have been more strongly considered had we been calling for
a more widespread "hard freeze" of 28-or-colder). In other
departments, higher-res visibility such as from HRRR suggests
that especially the western 1/3 of our CWA will be prone to at
least patchy fog development (and possibly spotty dense fog
reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less). While the newly-wetted
ground and clear skies argue FOR fog formation, the light
westerly/downslope breeze often inhibits widespread fog
development. Although introduced "patchy to areas" of fog to our
official forecast and also our Hazardous Weather Outlook
(HWOGID), definitely did not have enough confidence to issue a
proactive Dense Fog Advisory (something to watch though).


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
In the wake of any early-AM Frost/Freeze and possible fog
concerns, the majority of the day will be dry under mostly
sunny/partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and somewhat
variable in direction, but mainly some variation of westerly or
northerly. High temps were changed little, with most places
aimed pretty uniformly between 62-65 degrees.

However, already by late afternoon (mainly after 4 PM), yet
another low amplitude wave diving in from the west-northwest
will spark more chances for showers/possibly a few weak (non-
severe) developing over and/or drifting into mainly our
northern/western counties.


- WEDNESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although coverage is only expected to be isolated/scattered,
much of the night is expected to feature at least spotty
coverage of showers/a few weak storms, and quite a bit more
cloud cover (especially post-midnight) versus tonight. ASSUMING
this occurs, we should have a "one night break" from
frost/freeze concerns (except for MAYBE our far north-northwest
counties). Low temps are aimed mainly 38-43 degrees most
areas...slightly above frost development. This will need closely
monitored however, especially if skies look to be clearer than
currently expected.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Over the course of these 48 hours, our flow aloft turns more
northerly than northwesterly, as at least a few weak
disturbances drop southward through our region on the backside
of a large-scale trough anchored from the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada. At the surface, the main feature during this
time will be a weak cold front dropping southward through our
area Thurs daytime-evening, kicking up northerly breezes a bit
(gusts around 20 MPH). Precipitation-wise, chances for
isolated/scattered showers and some weak thunderstorms are
highest Thursday daytime (and mainly in the southern half of our
CWA), before any rain chances depart southward Thursday night
and followed by dry weather for Friday. High temps still appear
very similar both days (mainly low-mid 60s) and same story with
low temps both nights (mainly low-mid 30s). Assuming no
unexpected enhanced cloud cover, BOTH Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri
night-Sat AM will be good candidates for additional Frost
Advisories (maybe Freeze Warnings?).


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
The vast majority of the weekend currently looks dry and
overall-pleasant by most folks` standards, with warmer air
arriving and resulting in high temps generally near-70 on
Saturday, and mainly mid-upper 70s Sunday (and with relatively
tame breezes). Saturday in particular looks almost "guaranteed"
dry, but honestly Sunday- Sunday night carry a few more question
marks as both the ECMWF/GFS depict at least spotty rain at least
in the general vicinity of our CWA. As for overnight low temps,
they appear to trend slightly milder (mainly upper 30s-mid 40s),
taking frost/freeze concerns back out of the picture.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
As usual, uncertainty in the details grows by this range, but
our official forecast brings back various mainly small (20-30%)
chances for intermittent showers and (probably) weak
thunderstorms, as we remain in the path of at least a few
disturbances diving down from the north-northwest. High temps
are aimed very similar both days...most areas low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

With ongoing clearing skies and light Wrly wind around 5kt, may
see some shallow fog develop towards 09-10Z, with somewhat
better chances for EAR than GRI. Have continued MVFR VSBYs for
EAR with this update, and can`t completely rule out some pockets
of dense fog...but thinking is the Wrly wind direction will
help keep the fog from becoming dense on a widespread basis.
Late day clearing and damp ground are competing factors FOR fog,
so will need to monitor trends. Kept GRI at 6sm, for now.
Confidence: Medium.

Wednesday: Patchy fog could linger through about 14Z. Otherwise,
should be a pretty nice day, esp. from a wind standpoint, as
speeds should average only 5-8kt out of the WNW-WSW throughout
the day. Have some CU developing around 2K ft towards midday,
and this could increase to scattered showers by late afternoon
and early evening. Thus, have introduced some PROB30s to account
for this potential. While not explicitly included in this
update, it`s possible the showers could have some erratic/gusty
winds with them. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion