65°F
Updated:
10/8/2025
6:24:50pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
421 FXUS63 KOAX 082304 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 604 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures gradually warm throughout the week, with highs near 80 by Friday. - Dry weather continues for the remainder of the work week. - A pattern change is expected by this weekend. Several weather systems bring increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures by next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Calm winds and clear skies allowed for excellent radiational cooling this morning. Relatively cold temperatures aided in the development of fog in low-lying areas as a result. With surface high pressure now east of the area, southerly winds and sunny skies quickly burned off this patchy fog. Temperatures have climbed to around 70 F across the region this afternoon under plentiful sun. Increasing clouds are beginning to enter the area as a weak weather system lifts northeast towards us. While a few weak radar echoes may develop, observed and forecast soundings show a dry sub-cloud layer that should make it difficult for anything to reach the ground. The quiet weather continues through the end of the work week as temperatures gradually warm. Mid 70s on Thursday give way to temperatures near 80 by Friday with continued dry weather. A pattern change begins this weekend. First, a digging shortwave over the Great Lakes brings a cold front and low precipitation chances on Saturday. The cool down is short-lived as the pattern amplifies in response to a deepening trough over the western CONUS. This pattern amplification pushes temperatures back into the 80s with additional low-end precipitation chances possible. By next week, the western CONUS trough remains relatively stationary with weaker shortwaves quickly lifting northeast into the northern Great Plains. This is anticipated to bring another cold front through the area to start the new work week, cooling temperatures. Precipitation chances continue also, but remain relatively low probability at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with increasing clouds (FL060-070 layer), and perhaps a few sprinkles tonight. South winds are expected to diminish to 10 kt or less within the next hour or two, before increasing to 14-16 kt with higher gusts by 09/15-16z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Mead
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
994 FXUS63 KGID 081955 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through Sunday with highs in the 70s and 80s, warmest on Sunday (highs in the mid-upper 80s). - Rain chances (15-20%) return early Saturday morning as a warm front moves through the area. - Off and on chances (15-25%)for rain Sunday night-early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Today/Tonight... Cloud coverage from a passing weak disturbance has gradually pushed its way into the area today. The cloudy skies have helped to keep temperatures cooler, in the low-mid 60s where cloud coverage is the most robust (west/southwest), with temperatures in the upper 60s-low 70s in areas that have seen more sunshine (east). Winds are breezy at times, gusting 20-25mph. A few weak showers can be seen on radar, though dry air near the surface should prevent most if not all of this rain from reaching the ground. Mostly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures tonight largely in the 50s, but lows could dip into the 40s where clouds clear the quickest. Thursday and Friday... Upper level ridging strengthens/builds over the Plains on Thursday. Short range/high res model guidance supports the development of stratus/fog over the NE panhandle-southwest NE early Thursday morning. This stratus deck will gradually move into western portions of the area around sunrise on Thursday. The stratus looks to be slow to erode, lingering into the early afternoon hours, bringing uncertainty on Thursday`s high temperatures. In areas that remain east of stratus/clear quickly, highs will climb into the upper 70s- low 80s. Where stratus lingers longer, highs will be confined to the low-mid 70s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon hours, gusting 20-25mph across the area. A shortwave trough and associated surface low move into the Great Lakes and will push a cold front through the area Friday morning. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage as the strongest forcing for showers is east of the forecast area, closest to the surface low. Despite the frontal passage, another seasonably warm day is expected across the area with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Saturday and Sunday... Ridging begins to move into the Midwest on Saturday as southwesterly flow develops over the area. At the surface, a warm front will push north across the area Saturday morning. A few showers are possible along the front as it lifts north, though uncertainty remains on how widespread rain will be along the front, keeping PoPs below 20%. Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are expected, warmest across southwestern portions of the area and coolest near the warm front along/north of Highway 92. Breezy-gusty winds are expected during the day, strongest during the afternoon, with winds gusting 20- 30mph. There could be some elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon given the stronger winds and overall drying fuels (though fuels still fairly green). An upper level trough over the Rockies is expected to move into the Plains Sunday afternoon. Ahead of this approaching trough, southerly flow strengthens across the area resulting in a warm and windy day across the area. Highs will soar into the mid-upper 80s, around 15- 20 degrees above their climatological norms (normal highs upper 60s to low 70s). A cold front from the aforementioned trough will push into western portions of the area Sunday afternoon bringing some uncertainty on highs. Breezy-Gusty southerly winds continue on Sunday, with winds gusting 20-30mph ahead of the cold front. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front and remain breezy (20-25mph gusts). Elevated fire weather concerns are also possible on Sunday given the stronger winds, well above normal temperatures and drying fuels. Sunday Night Onwards... Precipitation chances return Sunday night as showers/storms develop along the cold front moving through the area. This does not look to be a widespread rain event as ensembles support showers/storms being fairly isolated-scattered along the front which is reflected well in the NBM`s 15-25% PoPs Sunday night. Cooler weather is expected Monday in the wake of the cold frontal passage with highs in the 60s- low 70s. Any lingering rain will come to an end Monday morning, with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Model guidance shows decreasing alignment as we move into next week. Broadly southwesterly flow redevelops over the area but models have a fair amount of spread in the timing, strength and position of shortwave troughs moving through this flow loft. Still, above normal temperatures return by the middle of next week, with scattered chances for precipitation associated with the passing shortwave troughs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: SCT-BKN clouds around 060-080 will move into the TAF sites during the afternoon-evening hours. These clouds will persist into the early morning hours on Thursday before gradually clearing first at KEAR than KGRI. Low stratus may also move into the TAF sites after sunrise on Thursday. Low stratus would move in from the west, and linger through the end of the TAF period (13-18z). MVFR ceilings are possible in this stratus, but confidence is too low to include MVFR conditions at this time. Have indicated this potential with a SCT020 group. South-southeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts are expected through the late afternoon hours, with winds around 10kts overnight. LLWS is possible overnight at KEAR, weakening around sunrise as the LLJ weakens/veers. Winds increase after sunrise on Thursday, with sustained winds of 10-15kts at KGRI/KEAR and gusting to 20kts at KGRI. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis
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