Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

882
FXUS63 KOAX 301859
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
159 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest
  potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations
  will be Friday night.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 20%) at
  times through this weekend. Highest potential will be this
  afternoon, Friday afternoon, and Sunday evening.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming
  into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a fair amount of cloud
cover across the area ahead of some shortwave energy spinning
across SD. There were also some light radar returns across
north-central into central NE, which could edge eastward into
our area this afternoon and give us a few sprinkles. Not
expecting any notable rainfall though. Some additional spotty
showers/sprinkles could develop into this evening and overnight,
but at the same time, surface high pressure will be building in
and should limit overall coverage. Otherwise, the main thing to
note tonight will be frost potential with temperatures dropping
into the lower to mid 30s, lowest across northeast NE. Ended up
issuing a Frost Advisory across most of eastern NE and into
west-central IA where formation looks most favorable. Farther
east, guidance suggests clouds may linger a little longer and
keep us a few degrees warmer. Still could see a couple hours of
patchy frost in low-lying areas, but not expecting it to be as
widespread. Regardless of advisory or not, you`ll want to think
about protecting your plants.

Friday will be similar to today with another bit of shortwave
energy rounding the base of the upper level trough to our
northeast and leading to some cloud cover and perhaps a few
isolated showers/sprinkles. Once again, not much moisture or
instability to work with, so any coverage of precip should be
quite low. Surface high pressure is progged to quickly work in
Friday evening with clearing skies and light winds. This will
lead to an even cooler night with a little more widespread frost
and even some locations seeing a freeze (most likely in
northeast NE and west-central IA.

Saturday will be the start of a warming trend as upper level
ridging will start to edge eastward and southerly flow sets up
behind the departing surface high. Temperatures should get into
the mid 60s to lower 70s, followed by widespread 70s to lower
80s on Sunday and Monday. We will remain under northwest flow
aloft with guidance suggesting potential for a few weak
shortwaves to ripple through the area along with some surface
fronts, potentially bringing some light precip. However, the
primary moisture plume looks to remain to our southeast, and
stronger forcing for ascent will remain to our northeast, so
chances currently remain below 20% for us through Monday with
anything that does develop being pretty light.

Meanwhile, a rather strong upper level trough/cutoff low looks
to move onshore over CA Sunday night into Monday, breaking down
the ridge, with associated shortwave energy ejecting toward the
forecast area. In addition, a surface boundary will be sliding
through the forecast area Monday into Tuesday and stalling
somewhere in or near the forecast area. As the aforementioned
shortwave energy pushes in, expect shower and storm development
in vicinity of the boundary Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest
guidance favors most of this activity being to our south,
keeping precip chances in the 30-40% range, though a few various
ensemble members set the front up across NE instead of KS, so
frontal position will be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise,
temperatures behind the front look to return to the 60s through
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Any lingering MVFR ceilings early in the period should scatter
out/rise with VFR favored thereafter as 5000-9000 ft clouds
continue to slide through overnight and into Friday. Can`t
completely rule out some spotty showers/sprinkles this afternoon,
but if they develop, not expecting any restrictions (10-20%
chance). Winds this afternoon will be out of the north, with
gusts of 18-24 kts. They will weaken and become westerly this
evening/overnight, before picking back up out of the northwest
Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
     088>090-092.
IA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

267
FXUS63 KGID 301739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible (15% to 45% chance)
  later this morning into this evening mainly for north central
  Kansas. Severe storms are not expected.

- Near freezing to just below freezing temperatures are expected
  tonight/Friday morning and again Friday night/Saturday
  morning. Frost/freeze conditions may develop areawide.

- There is a 15%-20% chance of light rain showers/sprinkles on
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

There are some remaining showers across portions of the forecast
area which are expected to dissipate/move out of the area during the
overnight hours. Winds are light and mostly variable. Low
temperatures overnight into this morning are expected to be in the
mid 30s to low/mid 40s. Winds this afternoon will mostly be out of
the north with high temperatures in the mid/upper 50s to the mid
60s. An area of showers and thunderstorms may (15%-45% chance) move
across mainly north central Kansas later this morning through this
afternoon and possibly into this evening. Severe weather is not
expected. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be present across
the area tonight into Friday morning as well as for Friday night
into Saturday morning. Low temperatures these two nights/mornings
are expected to range from the mid/upper 20s to the mid 30s with the
2nd night being slightly colder than the 1st. Both nights have the
potential for frost/freeze conditions to develop areawide. Light
rain showers/sprinkles may fall across portions of the area on
Friday (15%-20% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

After a foggy start to the day across western areas, mostly
sunny skies were observed across the majority of the region
this afternoon. A few light showers can be seen developing on
radar just to the west of the local area the past few hours,
with any more convective looking activity so far remaining
across the high plains.

For the remainder of the day, expect an upper level disturbance
crossing the Rockies to help continue to fire up a few showers
and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two across the local area,
but with minimal instability and elevated LCL heights, severe
weather is not anticipated. This activity will then slide south
through the overnight hours, potentially bringing a few
additional showers and isolated weak thunderstorms to our Kansas
counties through the daytime hours Thursday. Given the scattered
nature of activity depicted in the CAMS, do not expect much in
the way of significant or widespread precipitation over the
next 24 hours, with most locations receiving just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch of rainfall on average.

As skies clear and winds remain light across the area Thursday
evening, expect temperatures to fall to near or potentially
slightly below freezing in spots, with widespread frost in the
forecast to start the day Friday. While currently there is no
fog in the forecast to go along with the frost potential, this
will be something to keep an eye on as despite low probs in the
models, the setup (mostly clear skies/light winds and elevated
dew points) is not that dissimilar to this morning when dense
fog developed across portions of the area during the early
morning hours.

A near repeat of frosty conditions is then anticipated to start
the upcoming weekend as high pressure begins to nudge into the
area from the west. As this ridge transitions eastward, expect a
nice bump in temperatures through early next week when
widespread highs are anticipated to be in the mid to upper 70s.
This ridge then shows some signs of weakness by Tuesday as a
west coast low merges with the an upper level trough to our
north bringing back a chance for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity as early as Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions anticipated through the period.

Expect gusty north winds (to around 20 KTS) to continue across
the area through the late afternoon hours with diminishing
clouds behind an upper level disturbance sliding across Kansas
this afternoon. Expect any -SHRA activity with this disturbance
to remain well south of the terminals with just varying amounts
of mid-level clouds anticipated through the remainder of the
daytime hours. Light winds and clearing skies expected
overnight, with westerly winds increasing to around 12KTS after
daybreak Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion