Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

948
FXUS63 KOAX 041729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday
  through Wednesday, with the highest chances (50-70%), across
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday evening
  across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with hail and
  wind the primary hazards.

- Frost will be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
  especially across northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening places a
broad mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern majority of the
CONUS, with a split flow pattern developing to its west. At the
surface, a weak cold front passed through the area today, though the
passage had little effect on temperatures as afternoon highs rose
into the 70s. Overnight, a weak shortwave disturbance pivoting
across the northern Plains will drag rain showers towards the area.
The bulk of this activity is expected to decay before reaching the
area, though a few sprinkles and gusty winds may approach northeast
Nebraska with the collapsing showers. PoPs currently peak at 15%.
Overnight lows are expected to dip into the 40s.

Monday, the aforementioned upper-level trough will begin to sag
southward into the central and northern Plains, helping to push a
more potent cold front southward through the area. Afternoon high
temperatures will be dependent on if the front passes through before
peak daytime heating. Values in the low 70s are expected across
northeast Nebraska, while areas along and south of Interstate-80 are
expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Winds will shift to northerly
with gusts of 20-30 mph behind the front.

During the late afternoon and evening, thunderstorm development is
expected along the front as forcing for ascent increases. Bulk shear
is expected to reach 35-40 kts with MUCAPE topping out around 750-
1000 J/kg, bringing the potential for a few strong to severe storms.
The primary hazards will be hail (up to 1.25") and damaging wind
gusts (up to 65 mph). The main question will be where the front is
located by the time convection initiation occurs. Latest CAM
guidance keeps storms confined to far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, potentially even south of the NE/KS state line.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage
behind the front Monday night into early Tuesday, with PoPs
currently peaking at 50-70%. Rainfall totals are expected to
peak around 0.20" in southeast Nebraska, decreasing northward.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The remainder of the period will generally by encompassed by zonal
to northwesterly flow aloft as a broad trough persists over the
eastern CONUS. The post-frontal airmass and continued CAA will be
felt on Tuesday and Wednesday, as afternoon highs are expected to
peak in the upper 50s and low 60s. On and off light rain chances
persist through Wednesday as a diffuse front stalls across the area,
primarily for southeast Nebraska where PoPs linger at 30%.

Frost potential will return to the area Wednesday and Thursday
morning, primarily in northeast Nebraska as overnight lows dip into
the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will gradually warm Thursday into
the weekend. High temperatures on Thursday are expected in the upper
60s to low 70s, increasing to the widespread 70s on Friday and
Saturday. A few on and off light rain chances (PoPs 15-30%) persist
as weak shortwave disturbances slide across the area, though dry
periods will largely outnumber wet ones. Severe weather potential
remains low through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with increasing
clouds around 7000-10000 ft agl and perhaps a few showers as a
front moves through the area. Can`t completely rule out a brief
dip to MVFR visibility with any heavier showers. Also, highest
chances for any thunderstorms should stay south of the TAF
sites, but still give it a 10-20% chance. Winds will be out of
the northwest to north, with gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon,
before speeds drop below 10 kts this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

033
FXUS63 KGID 041810
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High in the 70s and 80s today ahead of a cold front.

- Breezy winds gusting 20-30mph behind a cold front could result
  in briefly near-critical fire weather conditions this
  afternoon (along/south of I-80 in Nebraska).

- Scattered thunderstorms develop along/south of the NE-KS
  border this evening. Small hail and gusty winds can`t be
  ruled out with these storms.

- More widespread showers (30-70%) move into the area overnight, with
  off and on rain chances continuing through Wednesday. The
  best chances favor west/southwest portions of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Skies are partly cloudy this morning with temperatures currently
sitting in the 40s and 50s. Aloft the area is under northwesterly
flow, with an embedded shortwave trough moving into the Northern
Plains. Temperatures today will climb into the 70s and 80s ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough. As the trough deepens over
the northern Plains, it will push a cold front through the area
this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds arrive behind the cold
frontal passage, gusting 20-30mph. Limited moisture return
combined with warm temperatures results in afternoon relative
humidity values of 15-25% across central/southern portions of
the area. While humidity increases somewhat behind the front,
there still looks to be a couple hour window this afternoon
where near-critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly
for areas along and south of I-80 in Nebraska.

As the cold front reaches the Nebraska-kansas border this evening,
scattered thunderstorms are favored to develop along the front.
Limited instability (CAPE < 1000J/Kg) should keep storms from
becoming severe (best chances east/southeast), still a stronger
storm capable of producing small hail/gusty winds can`t be ruled
out. The strongest storms exit the area during the late evening
hours, with more widespread showers/storms moving into the area
overnight (30-70%).

Showers will largely exit the area by sunrise on Tuesday, with most
areas seeing a lull during the daytime hours. The exception to this
is across western portions of the area (along/West of Highway 183),
where periods of stratiform rain push into the area. Widespread
cloud coverage and cold air advection limits highs to the 50s. As
the upper level trough deepens on Tuesday-Wednesday, it will begin
to merge with a low over the southwest. This brings more
widespread/steady stratiform rain to mainly southwestern portions of
the area Tuesday night-Wednesday. Rain exits the area Wednesday
night as the trough begins to move into the Midwest.

Clearing skies and a cool airmass behind the departing system could
bring a chance for frost to the area Thursday morning. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track, with temperatures climbing back towards
normal by the end of the week as northwesterly flow builds over the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Can`t complain too much about conditions to end the
weekend...with overall light winds and partly cloudy skies.
Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing
northwesterly flow in place across the Central and Nrn
Plains...driven primarily by broad troughing over the eastern
CONUS. A weak ridge axis extends north from the Desert SW into
the Rockies, while a larger area of low pressure is inching
closer to the central CA coast. A weaker shortwave disturbance
sliding SE off to our NNE late last night into this morning
pushed a surface frontal boundary south into the forecast
area...reaching far southern fringes by around midday. This
front ushered in generally northeasterly winds...but with it not
being a strong front, has not brought a notable increase in
speeds or a change in temperatures. Highs will top out in the
70s-low 80s.

To varying degrees, some models still showing the potential for
isolated showers/storms developing over the NE/SD High Plains
later this afternoon...then sliding southeast with time through
the evening hours. Still lingering uncertainty whether any of
that activity maintains itself long enough to get into our
forecast area...but with some models showing that being
possible, have a small chance of precip in far NNW portions of
the area for a few hours mid-late evening. Otherwise the rest of
the overnight hours are expected to be dry. Winds overnight
expected to be on the light/variable side, turning more WSW
closer to dawn...as the area sits between the departing front
from today and the next which will be making its way through the
Dakotas overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...

The forecast for the first half of the new work week remains on
the more active/wet side. On Monday, the forecast for much of
the daytime hours remains dry...it`s not until late in the day
and into the evening-overnight hours that higher precip chances
spread across the area. Models remain in good agreement showing
upper level shortwave energy swinging through central
Canada...aiding in the eventual deepening of a more organized
upper low over Ontario by late evening-overnight Monday. This
system will push another surface cold front south through the
region...with the potential for showers and storms to develop
along it mid-late afternoon...so its progress/location is an
important detail. Still some lingering slight differences
between models with where the boundary is when activity
develops...ranging from closer to the NE/KS state line to a
touch further south and closer to I-70. Ahead of the front...not
much change with forecast highs, reaching well into the 70s and
lower 80s. Because of the short period between frontal
passages...the surface pattern never gets much of a chance to
bring more solidly southerly flow to the area and increased
moisture return. Forecast dewpoints through the afternoon remain
in the 30s- 40s...so models are keeping instability mainly less
than 1000 j/kg, with better values more focused over eastern KS
where dewpoints closer to/over 50 are expected. Can`t rule out
some storms being on the stronger side...but the better threat
for severe storms remains focused just off to our E-SE, where
the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remains.

For the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame...no notable changes with
models, and the forecast continues to have widespread
precipitation chances. The forecast remains situated on the
southern edge of larger, broader troughing driven by that
Canadian low creeping further east. The daytime hours on Tuesday
may end up being somewhat of a lull in activity...especially
the further north and east you go. Tuesday evening on into
Wednesday, models show another push of upper level shortwave
energy through the Plains...with recent runs generally focusing
the better chances for precip across roughly the SSW half of the
forecast area. Sitting north of the main sfc frontal
boundaries...models not showing much potential for
instability/thunder, so just plain rain showers is the primary
precip type. Expecting generally northerly winds during this
period, with plenty of cloud cover...and notably cooler temps,
with highs both Tue-Wed forecast to top out in the 50s.

Thursday on into next weekend...

Models are in decent agreement with the broad picture...showing
the upper level pattern continuing to be mainly northwesterly,
at times more zonal, through next weekend. This pattern looks
to bring periodic shortwave disturbances through the
Plains...especially as we get into the weekend period. Lot of
details to iron out over this week, don`t get too hung up on
specifics that far out. Following those Tue-Wed highs in the
50s, temps are expected to climb back into the 70s for Thu-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concerns through this TAF period lie with winds the rest of
today...then increasing chances for rain this evening on through
the end of the period. For the rest of this afternoon, expecting
mostly sunny skies to start, with increasing cloud cover with
time...and gusty northerly winds behind a passing cold front.
Gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible through the daytime hours.
Rain chances spread across the area this evening-tonight...but
due to the potential for it being scattered in nature, kept just
a VCSH mention in the prevailing groups with embedded PROB30
groups. Currently have conditions remaining VFR through the
period...but late tonight through the end of the period, cloud
bases may flirt with MVFR criteria.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion