Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

135
FXUS63 KOAX 010710
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will continue early this morning across
  far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with small hail
  possible (under 1 inch).

- Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday (80-100%), with
  a few strong to severe storms possible in southeast Nebraska
  and southwest Iowa. Rainfall totals are expected to peak in
  the 0.5"-1.00" range for most.

- A cool and wet pattern is expected to persist through the work
  week, with additional rain and storm chances (60-80%) on
  Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Today through Thursday...

High temperatures were reached right around midnight Tuesday
morning, before dropping into the 40s behind a cold front, and
rebounding back into the 50s and 60s Tuesday afternoon. Spotty
showers behind the passing cold front struggled to reach the surface
Tuesday evening, with the 00Z OAX sounding indicating quite a bit of
low and mid level dry air.

Low level moisture was able to pool ahead of an approaching
shortwave last night, allowing a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, gradually
pushing into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa. Although midlevel
lapse rates are fairly steep at 7 C/km, limited shear and
instability will likely prevent these storms from producing much
more than 40 mph wind gusts and small hail.

The shortwave will continue to make it`s way through the region
today through Thursday. Expect spotty showers and storms to become
more widespread by this afternoon and evening. Cloud cover
associated with the precipitation will limit temperatures to the
upper 40s in northeast Nebraska, and mid 50s across far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, Wednesday.

A mix of precipitation types is possible across far northeast
Nebraska early Wednesday, although the latest model runs indicate
colder air remaining just to our north. If light snow does develop,
warm ground temperatures would likely limit any meaningful
accumulations or impacts. Farther south, across southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa, a conditional severe storm threat may develop
this evening. While instability remains somewhat modest (generally
near or below 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), the proximity of the surface low
will enhance low-level shear and hodograph curvature. This supports
a non-zero tornado risk, along with the potential for severe hail
and wind. The extent of this threat will depend heavily on the exact
track of the surface low, as a more southerly track would shift the
better severe potential south of the area. The SPC currently
maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across
far southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa.

Showers will continue through Wednesday night and into Thursday
morning, before exiting the forecast area Thursday afternoon. Given
the scattered nature of the storms, precipitation amounts will
likely be variable across the region, However, there remains an 80-
100% chance of at least 0.5" over far northeast Nebraska and parts
of western Iowa. Similar areas have up to a 50-70% chance of seeing
1"or more of much needed rain.

Temperatures will rebound with the decreasing cloud cover on
Thursday, with most locations reaching the low 50s to mid 60s.

Friday and Beyond...

We could see a quick break in precipitation Thursday night, before
the next low pressure system moves in on Friday. Similar to
Wednesday`s system, the presence of the associated surface low over
the forecast area near peak daytime heating could enhance severe
storm potential across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Once again, this threat will be greatly dependent on the placement
of the warm sector, as a slight shift to the east would diminish
severe chances, and a shift to the west could enhance them.

While rain looks likely Friday, some snow could mix in, especially
across far northeast Nebraska Friday night into Saturday, as colder
air wraps in. That being said latest model runs keep the deformation
zone and snow potential just off to our north, once again. A few
showers may linger through Saturday, before dry weather returns to
the the forecast for the remainder of the weekend. Strong winds look
likely behind the departing system Saturday, with gusts greater than
40 mph possible.

Mid-level ridging is expected to push into the central Plains Sunday
and into early next week, supporting a warming trend and the return
of dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals to start the TAF
period with a cloud deck above 11,000 ft. Radar imagery shows a
few scattered showers and storms southeast of a line from KLNK
to KOMA as of 05z, and these should stay away from terminals for
the next few hours. Will see conditions gradually deteriorate as
we go into mid to late morning with ceilings eventually hitting
MVFR. Rain will gradually overspread terminals by the afternoon
and last for much of the TAF period. Ceilings lower to IFR late
in the period by 00z. Light winds from the northwest will
eventually swing to the east southeast and become gusty,
particularly at KOFK after 14z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

374
FXUS63 KGID 010723
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
223 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coverage of showers with a few embedded weak thunderstorms today
  will increase through the afternoon and evening hours. The
  best potential will generally lie between 5PM tonight through
  8AM Thursday.

- Between today and Thursday morning, widespread precipitation amounts
  of 0.25-0.5" will be possible with locally higher amounts up
  to 1" possible across a few far northern and eastern portions
  of the area.

- Highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s this afternoon will be followed
  by highs Thursday and Friday in the 50s to low 60s for
  locations north of the interstate and 60s to low 70s for
  locations south of the interstate.

- A second round of precipitation will be possible Friday,
  mainly across a limited far eastern and far northern portions
  of the area.

- Slightly warmer and somewhat drier conditions look favorable
  for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Widespread showers with a few embedded weak thunderstorms will be
possible across the full area today as a shortwave trough approaches
the Central Plains, promoting synoptic-scale assent. Though a
handful of leading/trailing scattered showers could form as early
as this morning to as late as Thursday morning, the better
precipitation chances will generally fall between 5PM this evening
to 8AM Thursday morning.

Despite the widespread nature of these showers/storms, drier air
mixing in behind could limit the system`s precipitation efficiency
and lead to some reduced precipitation accumulations, especially
across far southern and western areas. As the showers, initially
spotty in coverage, begin to materialize earlier in the day, the
coverage will gradually increase as the the shower cluster migrates
northeastward. This setup could leave a few southwestern portions of
the area drier than the rest with precipitation amounts favoring far
northern and eastern portions of the area. The highest precipitation
accumulations through Thursday morning (0.5-1") will be concentrated
across areas north and east of the Tri-Cities with around 0.25-0.5"
falling across most other places.

Besides the precipitation, temperatures will struggle to break out
of the upper 40s and 50s this afternoon as excessive cloud coverage
limits much of the diurnal warming. Winds will remain steady out of
the east between 10-15MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20-25MPH.
The passage of a surface low Thursday morning will turn wind
directions around to the northwest for the first half of the day
Thursday. Wind speeds/gusts will remain fairly similar to Wednesday,
although a period of lighter and more variable winds will likely
take over in the later afternoon to evening hours on Thursday.

Temperature-wise, highs will rebound some Thursday and Friday with
highs spreading the 50s to low 60s north of the interstate and the
60s to low 70s south of I-80. A secondary and less widespread
precipitation chance could return to a select far northern and
eastern portion of the area Friday. Another upper-level trough will
pass near the end of the week, likely developing some showers and
thunderstorms Friday. The latest trends, however, have pushed the
edge of where these storm will develop further eastward. Assuming that
this trend continues, it is not likely that many areas outside of a
handful of locations east of HWY-81 will receive any additional
precipitation from this event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Winds are on a decreasing trend, which will continue into this
evening and tonight. Wind direction will also gradually switch
around to the east by Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will also
increase ahead of the storm system impacting the region on
Wednesday.

This system will bring periods of rain to the area starting late
Wednesday morning and lasting through Wednesday night. Models
have trended a touch warmer and further north with any snow
potential. Instead, there is an increasing potential for a few
thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The main
storm threat is expected to remain to our south and east...along
a stationary boundary. But at least a few isolated storms
remain possible across most of the forecast area. Instability is
limited (100-500 j/kg MUCAPE), but this will be partially
offset by synoptic lift ahead of the surface low. Deep-layer
shear is strong, and melting levels will be low, so a few of the
strongest storms will be capable of producing some sub-severe
hail.

In total, precipitation totals are favored to be highest in the
northeast and lightest in the southwest. Some areas to the south
and west of the tri-cities may struggle to see 0.10", while
isolated areas of eastern Nebraska may see over 1.00". Of
course, given the isolated/spotty coverage of thunderstorms,
pinning down exact totals will remain difficult.

A few showers could linger past sunrise on Thursday, but
otherwise drier and slightly warmer conditions are expected to
return. Another system will move through Friday into Friday
night, but many models keep our area mostly (or even completely)
dry. The best chance for any meaningful precip will be to the
east.

Strong northwest winds increase behind this system Friday night
into Saturday. Winds may not be quite as strong as today
(Tuesday), but gusts over 40 MPH are possible (30-70% chance).

Friday and Saturday nights look to be the coldest nights
of the week, with widespread temperatures in the 20s. It might
be a good idea to drain hoses and sprinklers that been used
earlier this spring. Ridging then returns to the western CONUS
early next week, resulting in a return to above-normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours. MVFR to IFR
conditions expected Wednesday mid morning through the end of the
TAF period. BKN-OVC Mid-high level clouds are expected
overnight, with low stratus moving into the area around sunrise
Wednesday. MVFR ceilings develop over the area during the mid-
late morning hours. Have shifted the start time of MVFR
ceilings one hour later as recent guidance is a little slower on
the start time. MVFR ceilings gradually lower during the
afternoon. Scattered showers are possible during the late
afternoon-early evening hours, with IFR ceilings possible in the
showers. Ceilings are favored to lower to IFR around sunset, at
times reaching LIFR. Additionally, embedded/scattered
thunderstorms are possible within the broader rain shield
Wednesday evening. Have indicated this potential with a PROB30
group as the timing of any storm is uncertain.

Light northeasterly winds are expected to shift to the east
around sunrise, and remain easterly through the end of the TAF
period. Winds gusting around 20kts are possible throughout the
morning-afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion