Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

855
FXUS63 KOAX 112338
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
638 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional threat for strong to severe storms (20 to 40%
  chance) expected today. If a storm can develop, it will likely
  become severe with all hazards possible.

- Showers and storms persist for Sunday, particular in far
  southeast Nebraska toward western Iowa (25 to 50% chance). A
  strong storm or two may occur (5% chance).

- Active pattern continues into next week with continued shower
  and storm chances. Some storms may be strong, particularly on
  Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s persist
  before a slight cool down expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis at H8 shows a 30 to 40kt LLJ pointing
into much of the Central and Northern Plains. This feature helped
force widespread showers and storms earlier this morning, with most
locations receiving anywhere from a tenth to quarter of an inch of
rainfall, while far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa received
a healthy half inch to inch.

A brief lull in activity is expected for the early afternoon with
only a few lingering rain showers. Expect highs today to reach the
60s to low 70s with gusty south-southeasterly winds. A stronger H5
shortwave off to the west will eventually result in a sfc low
developing out in the western Dakotas. The feature will lift a
boundary and plume of moisture back into the area with dew points
increasing to the low to mid 60s. A secondary shortwave now
currently over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will also
eject northeast toward the area. Instability of 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg
in addition to 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear will be available
for convection to use **IF** it can develop and sustain itself.
Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest weak capping hanging on across
much of the forecast area aside from portions of southeast Nebraska
where daytime heating may erode the feature.

Latest 12z CAM output suggests a variety of scenarios that could
occur. Some guidance like the NSSL WRF tries to develop some
convection in southeast Nebraska as early as 19-20z as the secondary
H5 wave inches closer to the area, likely rooted aloft per forecast
soundings. However, other guidance like the HiRes ARW, FV3, and
eventually the NSSL WRF develop convection around 23z/00z that would
likely be sfc based. 12z and subsequent runs of the HRRR model seem
the least interested in firing off and sustaining any convection in
the area likely due to the nebulous forcing from the wave being
unable to break the cap. All this to say that lots of uncertainty
exists regarding if convection will develop. If convection does
form, it will likely become severe with large hail and strong winds,
and if it can become sfc based, a tornado cannot be ruled out
(especially in southeast Nebraska) given the impressive low level
curvature observed in hodographs and model output 0-1 km SRH of 100-
200 m2/s2. A conditional marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather is in place for much of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening.

Given the uncertainty of showers and storms developing, have
continued trend of keeping lower PoPs of 20 to 40% for much of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. Overnight into early
Sunday morning, CAMs suggest a few lingering showers across the area
(15-20% chance). Lows tonight remain mild in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Sunday will see some continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms, this time over our far southeast areas (25-50%
chance). Model guidance indicates a second wave clipping those areas
along with continued warm air advection helping provide lift,
although the better moisture transport shifts east of the area by
Sunday afternoon. If convection is able to develop, could see
another threat for strong to severe storms with lingering
instability/borderline shear of 25 to 30 kts. A marginal risk for
severe storms remains in place for much of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Highs Sunday warm to the mid 70s to mid 80s over our
far northwest with gusty southwest winds. Our far northwest could
see some high to very high fire danger too, but that may be negated
by the recent rainfall we`ve received/the spring greenup. The lowest
RH of 15 to 20% also doesn`t appear to overlap with the strongest
wind speeds.

Sunday night may see a few lingering rain showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over our far eastern areas with chances remaining at 20 to
40%.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The active pattern for showers and storms will continue into much of
next week. For Monday, will see another H8 baroclinic zone lift
northeast across the area with continued warm air advection helping
push temperatures to the 80s areawide. A sfc low will track
northeast through the area in tandem with a mid level wave which may
help spark some showers and storms. However, the LLJ looks to point
more toward the east, away from the forecast area. If a storm
manages to form, it could become strong. NBM currently suggests only
a 15 to 20% chance for some light PoPs along our northern and
eastern border areas for Monday.

By Tuesday, should see a more potent H5 shortwave lift northeast
from the Four Corners area into the Central and Northern Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis ensues with the sfc cyclone tracking northeast
throughout the day. Model guidance suggests the best instability and
moisture pooling behind the front over our far eastern and
southeastern service area. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear,
should see another severe threat for the area (15% chance for areas
east of a Lincoln to Omaha line). PoPs remain at 20 to 40% areawide
Tuesday.

Model guidance stalls the shortwave a bit by Wednesday with
lingering showers before finally lifting out of the area Thursday
with brief ridging. Continued disturbances are progged to track
through the area by late Thursday into Friday resulting in continued
PoP chances of 20 to 40% by Friday. Temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday remain warm in the 70s and 80s before a slight cool down to
the 60s to low 70s arrives for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

KOFK: Lower ceilings are expected to improve over the next
couple of hours at the terminal. Expect LLWS to develop this
evening, persisting through around 12Z. South winds become
southwesterly Sunday morning, decreasing to around 10-15kts.

KOMA: Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along the
Kansas/Nebraska border and are expected to move to the northeast
over the next few hours, potentially bringing some impacts to
the terminal after 01Z. LLWS will develop this evening out of
the south around 50kts, becoming more southwesterly around 08Z.
Southerly winds persist through the forecast period.

KLNK: A few strong to severe thunderstorms have developed
southwest of the terminal. At the present time, rain is expected
to move into the vicinity of the the terminal around or shortly
before the onset of the TAF period. Thunderstorms will move in
over the next 1-2 hours. Expect LLWS to develop this evening
after 02Z, persisting through around 13Z Sunday morning.
Southerly winds persist overnight, shifting to the southwest
after sunrise.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

085
FXUS63 KGID 112356
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated storms (20-30% chance) could develop this
  afternoon and tonight. Any storm that develops may have the
  potential to become severe. Hail up to the size of ping pong
  balls will be the primary concern.

- Another chance of scattered thunderstorms (a few potentially severe)
  returns Sunday for a few southeastern portions of the area.

- High temperatures will range the mid 70s and 80s Sunday through
  Thursday.

- Scattered shower and storm chances (20-40%) return Tuesday
  afternoon through Wednesday as well as Friday night.

- A end of the week cold frontal passage Friday may drop
  temperatures a few degrees over next weekend (back to the
  50/60s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026


Today...

Following the scattered storms from last night across much of our
central to south and eastern portions of the area, lingering cloud
coverage has followed us into today. Despite these clouds, breezy
southerly warm air advecting winds have helped push temperatures up
into the upper 60s and 70s. The breezy southerly winds gusting as
high as 25-35MPH will be expected to remain somewhat steady
overnight (gusts 15-30MPH) as a surface low continue to
strengthening over eastern Montana. The main question today will be
if and where afternoon to nighttime thunderstorms develop.

With temperatures rising this afternoon, instability has also
increase. SBCAPE values will peak between 1,000-2,500 J/KG with 6-8
C/KM low-to-mid level lapse rates. Though an isolated tornado can`t
be ruled out (20-30kts of 0-1km shear), the primarly hazard tonight
would be hail up to the size of ping pong balls. As result, the SPC
has upgraded central, eastern and southern portions of the are into
a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5 for mainly locations
near, east and south of the Tri-Cities) as well as a Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) across the remainder of the forecast area for today.

The big question tonight will be IF storms develop outside of a few
isolated places given weak synoptic forcing. The upper-level
shortwave trough will not arrive until the overnight hours. as
result, activity before midnight may be fairly isolated to a few
locations that are able to break through the low-level inversional
CAP. Storms that develop across the overnight hours may have less
energy to feed off from, thus the severe potential is expected
to wane through the overnight hours.


Sunday...

Temperatures will continue to rise Sunday as clouds clear partially
with the continuation of the southerly to southwesterly winds
(directions veering as the surface low moves across the Dakotas).
Highs for Sunday are currently forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid
80s. Wind speeds will be at their strongest point early in the day
(10-20MPH and gusting up to 30MPH) later lightening to only 5-10MPH
and gusting up to 20MPH by the later afternoon and evening hours.

A limited east to southeastern portion of the area could see a
storm or two in the evening. Any storm that does develop will once
again have the chance to become severe due to sufficient shear and
instability east of a passing dryline. Confidence remains somewhat
limited (20-30% chance) as storms that do fire, may do so after the
dryline has completely exited the area to the east. The SPC has
included areas southeast of a line from Rooks county Kansas to Polk
county Nebraska underneath a Marginal risk.


Monday and Beyond...

Troughing across the Western U.S. during the first half of the week
will set up southwest upper-level flow across the Central Plains. A
few embedded shortwave disturbances will likely emerge out of this
flow, each bringing along at least a small chance for precipitation.
The next chance for precip (20-40%) will come Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday as a surface low deepens across the area.
Confidence remains somewhat limited as both the GFS and ECMWF global
deterministic models keep most of the shower and storm activity east
of the local area. A similar story as Sunday may play out where the
key forcing mechanism (cold front) may pass through earlier in the
day, minimizing the afternoon to evening storm potential.

Beyond the mid-week precipitation chances, temperatures will likely
peak in the mid 70s and 80s through Thursday with winds (outside of
Tuesday night) maintaining a southerly to westerly orientation. The
warmer temperatures with occasional periods of gusty winds will bring
back near-critical fire weather conditions to at least a potion of
the area each day Monday through the end of next week. Brief critical
fire weather conditions from time to time can`t be ruled out across
a few southwest locations mainly on Tuesday afternoon.

The next feature to note will be the passage of a cold front later
in the week that will knock highs down some heading into next
weekend (back to the 50s and 60s). Another precipitation chance may
trail behind the front Friday night into Saturday as another and
likely more amplified trough approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Outside of a small chance for isolated storms early this
evening, have dry/VFR conditions for this TAF period. Have a
PROB30 mention for the first couple of hours, considered leaving
precip mention out altogether...confidence is not high.
Expecting gusty southerly winds to continue through the
overnight hours...with models continuing to show the potential
for LLWS even with those gusty winds in place. Some models
time heights showing the potential for the development of lower
clouds, so do have a FEW010 mention at both sites, just not
enough confidence at this point to make it a ceiling...will be
watching trends closely.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion