81°F
Updated:
6/7/2026
5:20:52pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
063 FXUS63 KOAX 071735 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the remainder of the afternoon, with brief downpours, lightning, and funnel cloud or two all possible. - Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that could thwart extreme heat. - Heat could be disrupted by stronger storms that will try to develop and move through the area Monday through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Today and Tonight: GOES satellite imagery this afternoon shows textured landscape of clouds draped across the Central and Northern Plains, spurred on by a weak cutoff low and it`s associated height falls general convergence across the area. Zooming out a bit further, longwave troughing continues across the Pacific Northwest with a cold front continuing to exist up and down the Northern High Plains. Sounding profiles and SPC objective fields locally depict a generally uncapped environment, with pockets of deeper convection pulsing up and down therein while the potential/duration of any storm is limited by weak effective shear. SPC mesoanalysis also shows some increased values of non-supercell tornado parameter due to the ambient vorticity, sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates, and overall stretching potential of that vorticity. No tornadoes are expected to occur, but we do anticipate reports of funnels underneath some of the strengthening pulse convection over the course of the afternoon. Aside from the spurious convection, lighter rain is also expected to occur in a more widespread nature before they dissipate/shift off to the northeast along with the mid/upper closed low. Temperatures will only warm slightly to their peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s, making it a low point from which we will jump forward into a hotter forecast for the remainder of the week. Skies overnight will trend clearer as subsidence sets in behind the low, with the back edge of the clouds trying to usher in areas of fog, primarily across central and eastern Nebraska into Monday morning. Monday through Wednesday: The forecast hits a bit of a turning point Monday, as the mid/upper jet streak near the High Plains advances farther east -- not necessarily to induce weather directly over the area, but moreso to develop showers and storms to the west that move into the forecast area. As for Monday in particular, the aforementioned frontal boundary front the High Plains the day previous will push into north- central Nebraska into central South Dakota. The southern reaches of the front will bend farther to the south and west, connecting to a local surface low near the NE/KS/CO border. CAMs are generally on board with developing convection closer to the surface low and where the greatest instability will lie Monday afternoon, but they do also hint at storms trying to fire along the front in northeast Nebraska after 6 PM, but with sufficient, but less instability and effective shear. Those storms serve as the initial severe threat for the evening, with an eventual MCS trying to push into the area late/overnight Monday that would bring 50-60 mph winds through after midnight. Aside from the storms, heat will also be of importance to the forecast, where areas to the southeast of the incoming cold front are forecast to hit high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Similar temperatures are forecast going through the middle of the work week, seeing a potential bump into the mid-to-upper 90s and near 100 degrees in far northeast Nebraska. The continuation of any heat will be conditional to potential storm and shower activity that is forecast through the week. We`re not expecting a washout by any means, but a poorly-timed MCS that powers through the area would kill high temperatures for the day, leaving us a bit cautious with regards to issuing any heat headlines. The current forecast does carry areas of "major" heat risk Tuesday and Wednesday, before reducing to "moderate/minor" again Thursday onward. Storm chances also continue to be of concern with the mid/upper features nudging a bit closer to the area Tuesday, and through/to the east of area Wednesday. Confidence in location/timing with these storm chances remain low, as the Monday evening/overnight convection will play a large role in defining what areas are allowed to recover, while outflows remain and serve as focal points for the next day`s convection. With the abundance of instability and increasing mid/upper flow, severe storms are on the board both days. Thursday and Beyond: Temperatures trend downwards Thursday through Saturday, as the base of the upper trough continues its push east of the area while the remaining mid/upper flow flattens. Shortwaves continue to move through the flow though this period, keeping low-end chances for rain in the forecast, but most will be thankful for the cooldown incoming back to the low-to-mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions are in place this afternoon with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dotting the radar screen. These showers and storms are expected to last through the next 2-3 hours, with the western edge clearing KLNK first before shifting even farther east to avoid KOMA after 21z. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the afternoon with occasional gusts near 20 kts, while MVFR ceilings become increasingly hard to come by as we head into the evening. Overnight, winds will quiet down, clouds will try and clear until some fog/low stratus formation occurs after 06z. Fog chances are highest near KOFK into central Nebraska, with KLNK closer to the eastern edge of it. Any fog or lower ceilings (IFR or lower) should dissipate by 14z tomorrow morning, returning VFR conditions to the terminals. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
646 FXUS63 KGID 072051 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy precipitation from Friday night`s storms has continued to leave a few areas of slow moving or standing water across portions of Hamilton, York and far northern Fillmore counties. For more information, please refer to the Areal Flood Warning statement or the hydrology section below. - A few areas of fog will be possible to form late tonight into Monday morning. - A few severe storms may be possible across portions of the area primarily Monday as well as Tuesday afternoon/night. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary severe threats. - Temperatures will near the 90s to low 100s Tuesday afternoon with heat indices as high as 105 degrees. A cold front passage on Wednesday should steer highs more towards the 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the week. - Scattered storm chances return to the forecast mainly Wednesday night (15-40% chance), Friday night (15-30% chance) and Saturday (20- 35% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Short Term...Tonight and Monday Though a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms across our eastern Nebraska locations remain possible through this evening (10- 25% chance east of HWY-281), most areas across the region are likely to remain dry overnight. The potential for fog may also be possible tonight given clearing skies and lightening southeast winds. If fog does develop, a few patches of dense fog may have to be monitored to see if coverage becomes widespread enough for a dense fog advisory. The main concern in the short-term period, however, will be in regards to the potential for severe convection Monday afternoon to mainly Monday night from the presence of a passing cold front. Synoptically-speaking, a shortwave trough sliding up through the Midwest today will make space for the eastward expansion of a longwave North Pacific U.S. trough. This feature is expected to become the prominent driving force for the mid-to-upper level pattern this week, influencing the areas` precipitation chances. As far as Monday goes, weaker yet steady southeasterly winds at the surface, will help advect in more moisture (mid 60s to lower 70s dewpoints). In addition, though there is still some uncertainty with how expansive cloud coverage will become, temperatures are expected to inch a few degrees higher than today (highs nearing the upper 80s to low 90s). This warmer and slightly more moist airmass will increase atmospheric instability, likely inflating CAPE values up to between 2,500-4,000J/kg (mid to higher end values for rapid thunderstorm growth). In addition, modest shear (25-35kts of bulk shear) with supportive low-to-mid level lapse rates (7-9 C/km) appear to set the stage for severe weather anywhere storms fire. As result of the supportive environment, a Marginal SPC severe weather outlook is in effect across the full area for Monday. So, what is the catch? Like with all forecasts, there is still some uncertainties that could change the way that the event plays out. As of now, the collection of models continue to sort into two leading scenarios. The first concern regards the forcing mechanism. The absence of notable mid-level vorticity advection from an approaching trough/PV anomaly, leaves us to believe that any convection that forms for Monday will be locally forced rather than from synoptic assent. In other words, the development of thunderstorms will likely be tied to the passage of the passing cold front. The main contributor to the uncertainty for Monday is with the timing of this frontal passage. The main divergence between the HRRR/GFS and NAMNEST/NAM/ECMWF models today is with the timing/location of this front. The HRRR/GFS models are currently suggesting more aggressive convection in the evening to overnight hours with the front passing through later in the day. A later passage of the front would allow more time for the environment to destabilize (additionally taking advantage of the nocturnal LLJ). If this scenario actualizes, a MCS may be favored to race through much of our area (at least 50%, the best potential north of the state line). The main concerns would be strong straight line wind gusts up to 70MPH with large hail or an isolated tornado possible. The other case, however, would still support the potential for severe weather, though storm activity may be more dispersed through the day and more spotty in coverage compared to widespread. The NAM/NAMNEST/ECMWF models have been a little faster at advancing the front, potentially seeing storm activity initialize earlier in the day before the instability is maximized. Though severe weather will still be possible and earlier in the day, activity may not be as widespread as if the activity occurred later in the evening/nighttime. As it stands, there is two main scenarios that could play out that could effect when storms develop and how widespread impacts may become. Either way, the environment looks to be supportive for severe weather across at least a portion of the area Monday afternoon to night. Long Term...Tuesday and Beyond Following the potential for severe weather on Monday, a more limited coverage of severe storms may follow on Tuesday (20-30% chance). Given warming temperatures, continued afternoon instability and slightly increases shear from the approach of the Northwest U.S. trough, the potential for severe weather will remain possible for Tuesday. The main concern at this time will be if Monday nights` storms affect Tuesdy`s environment, potentially limiting instability from any lingering morning showers. Besides the returning storm chances, temperatures look to continue to be on track to near and reach the low triple digits across a few north central Kansas and far southwest Nebraska locations. The rest of the area will likely see highs in the mid-to-upper 90s Tuesday. These warmer temperatures will mainly be assisted by steady southerly warm air advecting winds blowing between 15-20MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH. Heat indices will likely reach the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the full area. As result, a Moderate to Major heat risk classification (levels 2 & 3 out of 4) will be in place across the area. It is suggested that any individual who may be more susceptible to the heat to have an effective source for cooling/hydration. The only factor that could prevent temperatures from reaching this high would be if cloud coverage becomes more widespread or showers/storms Tuesday morning overstay their welcome. A secondary/reinforcing cold front passing through the area Wednesday will likely keep the warmup from lasting past Wednesday as temperatures Thursday through the end of the week should not surpass the 80s to low 90s. A few more additional chances for storms lie in the extended period overnight Wednesday (15-40% chances), Friday night (15-30%) and Saturday (20-35% chances). Given limited uncertainty in how the upper-level pattern will unfold the second half of the week (progression and timing of the upper-level trough), limited details are currently known on the intensity, timing and coverage of these potential storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions recently returning to both sites will last until around 9z when fog potentially works its way into the area. Between 9-14z, visibility reductions will be possible. The worst visibilities (as low as 1/2 to 2 miles) may be possible between 10-13z. Though there is no mention of -TSRA in the current TAF, a limited 20% chance lies in the forecast Monday morning (increasing potential later in the day). Winds today will remain out of the south-southeast blowing between 10-15kts through the afternoon hours. Light winds, becoming variable late tonight, will likely lead into Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Heavy precipitation from Friday night`s storms has continued to be slow to filter out of a few portions of Hamilton, York and far northern Fillmore counties as of this afternoon. Several rivers/creeks remain nearly full to just overflowing their banks, leaving a few area of slow moving or standing water. Flooding across a few of these areas may continue to persist through tonight and possibly into Monday morning. As result, an Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for portions of the area mentioned above. The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight include: West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham) Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County) Lincoln Creek (Hamilton and York Counties). Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump HYDROLOGY...Stump
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