Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

245
FXUS63 KOAX 220733
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
133 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and light snow will possible through the day today. Snowfall
  totals are expected to range from a trace to a few tenths of
  an inch.

- Temperatures will increase into this weekend with highs
  generally in the 30s. Highs in the 40s are possible by the
  start of next week.

- No additional precipitation chances are currently in the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Short Term (Today through Friday)

Water vapor analysis this morning displays a broad, positively
tilted trough over much of the CONUS. Southerly low-level flow
has continued to increase temperatures from the bitter, arctic
cold felt just 24 hours prior. Lows this morning are expected in
the teens, a 20 to 30 degree increase from yesterdays lows.
Afternoon highs are expected in the 30s.

A shortwave disturbance ejecting out of Canada and into the northern
and central Plains will bring a chance for flurries and light snow
today. Snow chances will begin in northeast NE early this morning
and progress southeast into the afternoon. Moisture will be limited
with this event, as QPF values are capped at a few hundredths of an
inch. Pops will taper off this evening, though a few flurries will
be possible into the overnight period. Snowfall totals will be
limited, with most only seeing a trace to a few tenths of an inch.
The disturbance will also work to push a cold front through the area
during the overnight period, dropping lows into the positive single
digits and Thursday morning wind chills into the negative
single digits. The post frontal air mass will be felt on
Thursday as highs top out in the teens and 20s.

Friday will start with morning lows again in the single digits.
However, an arctic high passing by the region will bring southerly
low-level flow and warm air advection back to the area. This will
bring highs into the 30s and low 40s.

Long Term (Saturday & Beyond)

This weekend into early next week, the upper level pattern will be
dominated by troughing over the Hudson Bay region and ridging over
the western CONUS. This flow regime will leave us with predominately
dry conditions and mild temperatures. Highs this weekend are
expected in the 30s with the 40s possible through the start of the
work week. This trend looks to continue as the CPC`s 8-14 day
outlook is expecting temperatures leaning above average with
precipitation totals leaning below average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

LLWS still for a couple of hours at KOMA at TAF issuance, with
winds at 1800` from the southwest around 45 knots. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with broken to overcast conditions with cloud
bases at 6000-8000`. Southerly winds become northwest as a
frontal boundary moves into the area. Cloud bases eventually
drop to 3500-4500`, and there could be temporary MVFR ceilings
at 16-21z. Left in a chance of flurries with those lower
ceilings, but confidence seems to be dropping that anything
measurable will develop.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...DeWald

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

422
FXUS63 KGID 220459
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1059 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More mild temperatures have returned to the local area this
  afternoon with temperatures expected to fluctuate closer to
  normal (+/- 5-7 degrees) now through the upcoming weekend.

- A mix of flurries or brief periods of light snow is possible
  beginning very late tonight and continuing off and on through
  Thursday afternoon-evening...with little to no overall
  accumulation expected (a Trace to a few tenths at best).

- HOWEVER, there is some potential that spotty/heavier snow
  showers Wednesday daytime-evening could briefly reduce
  visibility and cause at least minor travel issues in the
  presence of northwest winds gusting at least 30-35 MPH.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

- ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: have decided to hit snow shower
 potential a little harder for Wed daytime-evening in our
 routine forecast products and Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Although not expecting truly "high impact" weather Wednesday
daytime-evening, did make some changes to our short term
forecast that felt were worthy of mention here:

1) Leaning more toward the more-aggressive latest models such as
HRRR/NAM, have made some modest increase/expansion of snow/snow
shower chances for Wednesday daytime-evening. More specifically,
have increased chances/PoPs for spotty light measurable snow
(at least 0.1" inch) to at least 30% for most of our Nebraska
counties in the morning, as that appears to be the main time
frame for a potentially larger-scale/cohesive band of snow to
pass through from north-to-south.

2) Then for the Wed afternoon-evening time frame, have forced
our ENTIRE coverage area (CWA) to at least contain a baseline
"slight chance" (15-20%) of isolated/spotty snow showers.
Higher-res models (particularly HRRR) are insistent that spotty
snow showers (probably some briefly intense?) are a decent bet
given the presence of an upper trough aloft, along with meager-
but-non-zero low level convective instability (CAPE) in the
presence of steep low-mid level lapse rates. Have also learned
from over the years that spotty snow showers in these setups
often occur ALMOST ANYWHERE, and thus it`s not worth "getting
cute" and trying to leave any portion of the CWA void of the
aforementioned slight chances (folks tend to get caught off
guard by these type of snow showers enough as it is).

3) We are not currently expecting this to turn into a true
"snow squall" situation, but we have definitely seen this same
type of setup a few times already this winter, where MOST places
remain snow-free, while spotty/narrow corridors of the area pick
up brief "bursts" of snow that reduce visibility in the presence
of gusty northwest winds, despite only typically accumulating
to a few tenths of an inch.

4) Lastly, and in light of # 1-3 above, will be introducing some
snow shower/reduced visibility potential to our Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWOGID) shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Temperatures have rebounded nicely across the local area today
as the low level flow has become westerly...helping to advect a
warmer airmass across the region. A few high clouds can also be
seen streaming across the region on satellite...ahead of the
next upper level disturbance crossing the northern Rockies this
afternoon. Expect clouds to thicken across the region
overnight as the atmosphere begins to saturate ahead of the next
disturbance...with a few flurries or light snow showers
becoming possible by daybreak Wednesday. Most models indicate
some very spotty/light precipitation will be possible with this
system as it crosses the local area on Wednesday, with
seasonable temperatures continuing and little to no
accumulation expected.

A reinforcing shot of cooler air (with highs returning back to
the 20s) will then infiltrate the region on Thursday, with
additional afternoon flurries possible...although again, little
to no accumulation is expected.

Expect the low level flow to once again become westerly by
Friday morning, which should help usher in more mild
temperatures to end the week with highs possibly returning to
the 40s by the afternoon hours.

Thereafter...seasonable temperatures are expected over the
weekend with a brief return to northwest flow aloft and a bit of
cloud cover...with models then cutting a low off over
California early next week...which will result in a more
zonal/weak flow pattern locally, and temperatures possible
climbing back into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence that the vast majority of the period features
VFR ceiling/visibility and snow-free conditions, but there is at
least one (if not two) "window of opportunity" for brief
snow/snow shower activity primarily during the latter 12 hours
that could spark at least sporadic MVFR conditions (and perhaps
a light dusting of accumulation). Otherwise, the main issue will
be moderately-strong northwest winds especially late morning
through early evening (gusts around 30KT). More details
follow...

- Ceiling/visibility/snow potential:
Despite plentiful mid level clouds mainly at-or-above 5-10K ft.,
the vast majority of the period should remain VFR. However,
there are at least modest hints in various guidance that at
least a sporadic MVFR ceiling could become an issue especially
during the final 9 hours of the period (mid afternoon-evening).
There also still appears to be a chance for brief/passing snow
showers, although it now appears a bit more probable during the
mid afternoon-evening versus the late morning-early afternoon,
so have pushed back the PROB30 group for potential snow shower
activity/high-end MVFR ceiling and visibility to 21-01Z (low-
medium confidence in occurrence). Certainly cannot rule out a
touch of snow activity both before 21Z and after 01Z, but at
least for now the PROB30 group appears to capture the overall-
most favored time frame.

- Winds (including brief LLWS potential):
Right away late tonight/early Wed AM, speeds will slacken to
mainly at-or-below 10KT as direction gradually shifts
increasingly westerly and eventually northwesterly ahead of an
approaching cold front. By mid-late Wed AM, northwest winds will
then ramp up appreciably, with sustained speeds commonly
20-25KT/gusts ~ 30KT particularly from 16-00Z before a slight
decrease occurs for Wed evening (but with gusts still 15-20KT).

On one final wind-related note: considered introducing a brief
low level wind shear (LLWS) group mainly 11-14Z to account for a
period of north-northwesterly winds ramping up to around 35KT
from the north-northwest mainly between 1,000-1,500 ft. AGL,
but with overall shear magnitude looking to mainly peak slightly
UNDER 30KT between the surface and this level, have held off for
now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion