Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

751
FXUS63 KOAX 141857
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
157 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for
  Monday, with a light shower or two possible after 10 PM.

- Our next chance for any thunderstorms appears to be on
  Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western
  Iowa.

- Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire
  danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features increasingly depressed
flow over the eastern third of the CONUS, influenced by a shortwave
digging into the Ohio River Valley while another mid/upper wave
traverses the Northern High and Great Plains. Northwesterly winds
and the increasing effects of high pressure are being felt this
afternoon, with the only criticism being slightly gusty winds at 20-
30 mph, while temperatures sit the the otherwise comfy confines of
the lower 70s. Winds become nearly calm overnight, and result in
lows that may beat most model guidance, as our recent warm streak
has dulled the effects of bias correction. We`ve got our lows
hitting the upper 40s to just over 50. West-southwesterly winds take
hold of the area tomorrow, giving us a bit of a bump in temperatures
via downslope flow, before a cold front moves in from the northwest
after 10 PM. We`re carrying some low-end chances for rain as they
pass (around 15-20%), but both the amounts and the spatial coverage
will be too small for any effect to be felt from them.

Tuesday and Beyond:

By Tuesday, the upper pattern features northwesterly flow aloft,
with the main jet streak pointed from BC/Albert into Iowa, carrying
a shortwave/speed max through it into the area. Before any rain
chances arrive, we`re able to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
and rain/storm chances glance the northeastern Nebraska and parts of
western Iowa.

As far as any impactful weather goes, Wednesday will be the day to
watch -- carrying temperatures that soar into the low-to-mid
90s, very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska, and some early
afternoon/evening showers and storms across southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. A pair of local surface lows will arrive
from the west/northwest, scouring out moisture behind them while
organizing severe ingredients to their southeast. The current
timing of their passage limits the threat risk area to be
highest southeast of the forecast area, but a slower arrival
would mean quickly expanding severe odds that would carry all
hazards before cooler temperatures stream in behind overnight.

Thursday through the rest of the forecast sees building troughing to
the west of the area, with the return of a summertime feel to the
forecast. A cooler Thursday turns into a warmer Friday and Saturday,
with late-in-the-day thunderstorm chances returning via low-level
jet nosing or from the west after initiating off of boundaries up
the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are in place this breezy afternoon, with
northwesterly winds gusting to 25 kts, which is on the upper end
of forecast guidance for today. Shallow clouds at FL040-060 dot
the sky, while gradually lifting and diminishing later this
afternoon. Winds will diminish through the afternoon, falling
nearly calm overnight before returning out of the west-
southwest around sunrise tomorrow morning, lasting through the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

002
FXUS63 KGID 141732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- If you are looking for drier weather, the week ahead is
  probably the week for you, as rain chances are minimal and
  light through next Friday.

- Look for a comfortable airmass for most of the week ahead as
  the week starts cooler than normal, warms and the cools again.
  There is really only one day (Wednesday) with the expectation
  of "very warm" or solidly above normal temperatures, and that
  seems to be trending a bit cooler.

- Though not explicitly in this forecast period, better chances
  for rain/thunderstorms appear likely from 21st through the
  28th.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Been a bit up and down the 3 nights (plus tonight) with severe
weather, then a very quiet night and then some severe weather last
night. We are back on the quiet weather scenario with the passage
of a cold front earlier today ushering in a drier and cooler
air mass. High pressure is building ont the area from the
northwest with largely clouds skies across south central
Nebraska and lingering high clouds across northern Kansas thanks
to thunderstorms to the south.

Today will feel more like fall than mid-June with dewpoints down in
the 40s and highs in the 70s. Look for a good amount sunshine but an
upper shortwave in Montana early today will slip southeast in the
northwest flow across the area this evening. The should bring an
increase in mid/high clouds at least, if not even a few sprinkles,
or the "look" of sprinkles later this afternoon and into the
evening. Rain amounts will be of the trace variety. Skies will clear
again behind the wave tonight and set the stage for another cool
morning Monday with low temperatures as much as 10 degrees below
normal.

After the cool start, Monday will be a touch warmer than today with
a light westerly wind, occasionally gusting up in the afternoon.
Another shortwave will pass northeast of the area Monday evening,
potentially bringing a few showers, though rain amounts will be
sparse and very light again. It won`t be as quite as cool Monday
night as a weak southerly flow develops.

Tuesday looks dry and a bit warmer still highs in the lower to
middle 80s, which is about where we should be. Southerly winds
will increase and continue into the Tuesday night ahead of the next
front set to move across south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas on Wednesday. Good warm advection will lift lows back into
the 60s Tuesday night and inspire some modest moisture return. To be
100% honest, the timing of the frontal passage Wednesday looks like
a morning event, which probably won`t conducive to much rain
chance. Also, it will be warmer Wednesday due to the warm start
and good mixing, but I am not sure we will be as warm as the
forecast currently depicts. Temperatures have been trending down
and model guidance suggests cold advection by afternoon.

After that, we cool back Thursday but will warm a bit next Friday
and Saturday. Thursday and Friday are mostly dry. We will see
another trough move into the northern plains next weekend and that
could promote a more widespread and better rain chance by next
Saturday, especially later in the day. That precipitation may
linger into Father`s Day.

Looking a bit further ahead, the weather pattern still looks a
bit unsettled in week 2, which could spell better rain
chances from the 21st through the 28th. Temperature look to be
near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As of early afternoon, an outflow boundary from morning
convection has stalled out over northern KS with the main cold
front slowly pushing through south-central and eastern Nebraska.
A few cells have already begun to develop north of Columbus, and
additional development is expected later in the
afternoon (by 3-5pm). If anything, this front has trended a bit
slower and further north, which brings potential for storms to a
larger portion of the area. Based on latest CAM guidance, roughly
the southeastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area has at least SOME
chance for t-storms, but the highest threat for severe weather
will remain further southeast where instability is highest and
convection will encounter less inhibition. Large hail and
damaging wind are the main threats, as the low level wind
profile is not favorable for tornadoes.

Storms should depart the area to the southeast by 8-9pm this
evening. Clearing skies in the post-frontal airmass will then
allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s and 50s by Sunday
morning.

The daytime on Sunday remains cool, with highs struggling to
reach 70 degrees in some places. Cloud cover will increase as an
upper level perturbation moves through, and a few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out. But most areas will remain completely dry.

Westerly surface winds return for Monday, which will aid
temperatures back into the upper 70s for most. The warming trend
then continues on Tuesday with rising heights aloft.
Temperatures peak on Wednesday ahead of a southeasterly-moving
shortwave. Most areas should reach the 90s, and portions of KS
could approach/exceed 100 degrees. This shortwave could bring a
few showers/t-storms to the area on Wednesday, but this will be
more favorable to our east.

Thursday looks to be a bit cooler behind this system, with
ensembles continuing to depict mostly dry conditions through the
end of the week. Rain/tstorm chances then increase again as we
head into Father`s Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Clouds will increase
this evening, but bases should remain ~10kft with only a few
sprinkles possible.

North/northwest winds go light/variable tonight and turn to the
west on Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion