Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

323
FXUS63 KOAX 262325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today, with winds d
  gusting 35 to 45 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued near
  the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through the
  weekend and will be particularly high on Saturday.

- Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s. 60s return Saturday,
  followed by 70s and 80s into early next week.

- Precipitation chances will increase by the early to middle
  part of next week, with a 40-60% chance by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this today features largely zonal flow aloft,
colored by a number of weaker shortwaves moving through the
mid/upper flow across the northernmost tiers of the CONUS states.
Zooming in to the local area, recent observations show that a
dramatic wind shift has arrived and pushed into southeast Nebraska,
bringing strong gusts between 30 and 40 mph, while warm temperatures
into the 70s hold on across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Where temperatures have been warmest, surface moisture is still high
and we`ve seen some shallow convection (that have included
isolated lightning activity) develop and waft in from central
Nebraska. As that wind shift continues to push through increase
wind speeds behind it, the short overlap of decreasing moisture
and increasing winds will result in a very high to extreme fire
danger across southeast Nebraska that will continue into the
overnight hours. A Red Flag Warning continues to be in place for
this threat.

Winds overnight will trend quieter, but gusts to 20-25 mph will
remain. We`ll bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s as that cold
air sinks southward, and make for a very chilly juxtaposition
compared to the warmer mornings we`ve enjoyed lately. By late
tomorrow morning, winds will trend gustier and join drier humidity
values to increase fire danger to very to extreme. A Red Flag
Warning is in place midday Friday, continuing into the early evening
for locations that see the strongest wind gusts. Cooler highs in the
50s will give some resistance to fire starts, but once one does, it
will be difficult to control.

Saturday and Beyond:

By early Saturday, the mid/upper pattern will have heights building
over the Desert Southwest while the main shortwave that brought the
cooldown continues to shift eastward. In its wake, a thermal ridge
will build over the High Plains as the surface pressure gradient
increases to ramp up southerly winds. The combination of the
increasing southerly winds/gusts and the building temperatures in
the low levels will bring fire danger back to the forefront of the
message. Temperature peak in the 60s, winds gusts range between 40-
50 mph at their peak, and RH values drop between 10 and 20%.
Comparing the fire danger between the increased fire danger days,
Saturday is by far and away the higher concern. The window for
Saturday will be as early as 9 AM lasting to 10 PM based on the
latest forecast, thankfully with no wind shifts anticipated
during the evening/overnight hours.

Sunday onward sees overall fire danger begin to decrease, but still
peaking in the very high category as temperatures ramp up but are
joined by limited winds. Temperatures peak Monday in the 80s, hold
on for Tuesday after cooling about 5 degrees, and then cool to near
normal (with plenty of room for uncertainty looking as temperature
spreads reach 25+ degrees) for the latter half of the week. Chances
for precipitation will be also on the increase for the late work
week, as a seasonable trough looks to depart the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with 5000-7000 ft
clouds diminishing this evening/overnight and lingering mid
clouds exiting on Friday. Winds will remain northerly, with
gusts of 25-35 kts this evening ending after 05Z, but 20-25 kt
gusts return by mid to late morning on Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for NEZ015-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ065-066-
     068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

012
FXUS63 KGID 262346
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Only a few sprinkles are possible tonight.

- Strong north winds very slowly decrease tonight and Friday/ Another
  Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and east of
  Highway 281 on Friday.

- Widespread critical fire danger is likely on Saturday. A Fire
  Weather Watch is in effect.

- Unseasonable warmth returns for early next week.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday, although
  these are not necessarily widespread or heavy

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Gusty north-northeast winds continue through the rest of today,
only slowly decreasing tonight. Gusts near 45 MPH remain
possible through the afternoon hours. Sprinkles are possible
tonight, but no measurable precip is expected and most areas
will miss out completely.

On Friday, north winds will continue to decrease...generally
from west to east. The post-frontal airmass will result in high
temperatures only in the 50s.

This cooldown will not last for long, though. Strong south winds
return to the south for Saturday, which will push temperatures
back into the 60s to near 70 degrees (warmest west).

Winds back off a bit on Sunday-Monday, but temperatures are
once again expected to reach the 80s underneath a large-scale
upper level ridge. A shortwave then approaches from the west,
bringing the next chance for rain to the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. That said, coverage of rain remains fairly spotty on
global models.

Additional shortwaves will bring continued precip chances for
the middle to end of next week. We remain cautiously optimistic
that this pattern change could result in some beneficial
moisture for the area, but latest long-term ensembles are
trending a bit drier than previous runs for the first couple
weeks of April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with a mix of
mid/high level clouds and good VSBYs.

Strong northerly winds this evening will gradually diminish
overnight...eventually falling to around 15-20KTS with gusts to
around 25 KTS by 27/04Z...as the pressure gradient begins to
relax a bit behind todays cold front. Could see some marginal
LLWS develop for a few hours, but with surface winds gusting to
around 25 KTS for most of the overnight hours...LLWS will
likely remain below critical thresholds. A weaker pressure
gradient near daybreak will likely result in a few hours with
lighter winds - from around 27/13-27/17Z - with winds increasing
a bit aft 27/17Z as despite the weaker pressure gradient,
mixing should allow for wind gusts 20KTS+ during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This afternoon:
The faster frontal timing has kept humidity on the higher side,
with many locations only briefly seeing humidity dip below 30
percent. Regardless, we have seen a few hotspots on GOES
satellite, fueled by the strong north- northeast wind. The Red
Flag Warning for our southern zones is scheduled to expire at
8pm.

Friday:
Although winds will not be nearly as high as Thursday, gusts up
to 30 MPH remain possible on Friday...especially east of Highway
281. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, but significantly
lower dewpoints will result in minimum humidity values in the
10-20% range. As such, a Red Flag Warning was issued for areas
along and east of Highway 281.

Saturday:
There continues to be high confidence in critical fire weather
conditions for Saturday. South winds may gust up to 45 MPH, and
humidity will once again dip into the 10-20% range across the
area. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire area.

Sunday-Monday:
Unseasonable warmth returns (highs near 80), but low level
moisture will also increase slightly. More importantly, winds
will decrease compared to Saturday. Elevated to near critical
conditions remain possible, but widespread critical conditions
are less likely.

Tuesday:
West winds increase again of an approaching system, potentially
leading to a more widespread fire weather threat again.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ084>087.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ006-007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion