Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

156
FXUS63 KOAX 190521
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder are possible
  Friday afternoon and evening. An isolated strong thunderstorm
  is possible.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible
  Saturday evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and
  localized flash flooding will be the main concerns.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Sunday into next week as the weather pattern remains
  unsettled. Temperatures will generally remain mild in the 70s
  to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

After a quiet and beautiful day Thursday afternoon, temperatures
will cool into the 50s by Friday morning. The quiet weather will
begin to end Friday afternoon and evening. A trough digs south
into the central Plains during this time. Widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms should develop across the area ahead
of this feature. The overall chance of rain is low (15-30%) with
only light rainfall accumulations anticipated. Temperatures
will warm into the 80s with the aid of southwesterly winds and
peaks of sun during the day. A relative lull in rain is expected
Friday night into Saturday morning as our next trough
approaches. Temperatures will start in the 50s to low 60s on
Saturday before an active day ahead.

A trough will move from the central Rockies into the central
Plains on Saturday. This aids in the development of an area of
low pressure over the high plains. At the same time, a stalled
frontal boundary will be draped over our area. With time,
plentiful gulf moisture streams north into the region as
steepening mid-level lapse rates develop overhead. While
current timing keeps the better forcing to the west of the area
Saturday afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm or two over our
western counties remains a possibility. Otherwise, temperatures
warm into the low 80s as clouds increase ahead of the trough. By
evening, earlier thunderstorms over the high plains are forecast
to develop into one or more convective systems that approach our
area by late Saturday evening into Saturday night. These
convective systems may pose a risk of severe weather, with
damaging winds of particular concern. Large hail and a couple
tornadoes may also be possible, but this threat appears
relatively low at the moment. A strong low-level jet may help to
fuel additional shower and thunderstorm development behind any
convective systems into Sunday morning, before everything pushes
east.

Flash flooding is likely to be another concern for Saturday.
Rich gulf moisture is forecast to support precipitable water
values nearing 2" across a large swath of the region. This
allows for efficient rainfall from any mesoscale systems, where
several inches of rain may fall in a short period of time. In
addition, any additional development or backbuilding of
thunderstorms could further contribute to flash flooding heading
into Sunday morning. Overall model consensus is that 1-3" of
rainfall is probable across much of the area with locally higher
amounts possible. There remains large uncertainty in the
location of greatest rainfall totals. This makes it hard to
pinpoint areas where a flood watch may be required. As more
convective-allowing guidance comes into range, increasing
confidence in the location of greatest rainfall is expected. A
flood watch may be required in later forecasts.

Beyond Sunday morning, forecast details become more uncertain.
Depending on the evolution of Saturday`s system, Sunday could be
a cooler and quieter day or additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. In
either case, unsettled weather remains in the forecast. There
will be breaks in rain chances at times, but additional troughs
are forecast to move across the Plains heading into next week.
This will maintain rain chances across the region and helps to
keep temperatures mild in the 70s and low 80s. As a reminder, we
are at our climatological peak of severe weather, so these
additional rain chances may eventually pose a severe weather
risk. Keep tabs on the latest forecasts with continued active
weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with some mid-level
clouds moving in through the morning and some clouds around
6000-8000 ft agl by the afternoon/early evening. Could see a few
sprinkles/light showers out of those lower clouds through the
day, but guidance suggests they`ll be pretty spotty with VFR
prevailing, so did not include mention for now. Otherwise, winds
will be light and somewhat variable overnight, though southerly
is slightly favored. Winds will turn clockwise through the day,
becoming westerly to northerly to northeasterly by Friday
evening. Speeds should generally remain below 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

552
FXUS63 KGID 190741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
241 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers this morning into this afternoon. Isolated
  thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into tonight. There
  is a 20% or less chance some of the storms may become
  marginally severe.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Saturday and especially
  Saturday night (up to near 100% chance). Heavy rain and localized
  flooding are possible.

- There is an enhanced risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday night. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
  isolated tornadoes are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are currently in the 50s and 60s with light winds.
Light rain showers may initially develop across mainly northern
portions of the forecast area (north of I-80) this morning and
become more widespread across the rest of the area this afternoon.
Some thunderstorms may develop (15% to 25% chance) late this
afternoon into this evening. There is also up to around a 30% chance
of storms developing late tonight across portions of the area. There
is a low chance (20% or less) that some of these storms may reach
marginally severe levels (up to quarter size hail). High
temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.

Some rain showers and storms may be ongoing Saturday morning as a
shortwave moves overhead. Rain and storm chances will increase
Saturday afternoon (up to around 60% chance). The highest chances
for rain and storms will be Saturday evening and night (up to near
100% chance) as multiple shortwaves move over/near the area with a
moist environment in place (dewpoints mostly in the 60s). There is
an enhanced threat (level 3 out of 5 per the SPC Day 2 outlook) of
severe storms Saturday into Saturday night. The main severe threat
will be Saturday evening into Saturday night. The most likely time
for severe storms will be 5 PM to 4 AM. However, isolated supercells
may develop during the afternoon. An MCS is expected to develop and
move across the area Saturday evening into Saturday night. Large
hail (up to around golf ball size), wind gusts (up to around 60
MPH), and isolated tornadoes will be possible initially (late
afternoon into the early evening hours). There is a 20% to 30%
chance the hail could be larger than golf ball size (maybe
approaching baseball size) during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. The hail threat will decrease slightly as the storms
develop into an MCS but the wind threat will increase (up to 70+
MPH). QLCS tornadoes may develop during the evening into the
overnight hours. Heavy rainfall with these storms may lead to
localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts up to 2 to 4+ inches are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026


Tonight and Friday....

With the last of this morning`s spotty showers now gone from the
area, the rest of the afternoon and night will be precipitation free.
In addition, clearing skies with light to calm winds will allow
overnight temperatures to fall to as low as the mid 50 to lower 60s
tonight. Aloft, the upper level jet rests right overhead with broad
ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing across the
eastern CONUS. The help of an upstream Pacific shortwave trough and
the strengthening western U.S. ridge will later nudge the jet east.
This Pacific trough will be responsible for some severe weather and
potentially heavy rainfall implications later this week (Saturday
night).

As for Friday, light southerly winds will reestablish at the
surface. Highs, however, should not deviate much from today (low
to mid 80s: a degree or two warmer from today). A few areas of
showers and non-severe thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon as
some moisture surges northward up from the south (15-25% chances
across the area). The latest high resolution model guidance
(HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST) does not pin point much in terms of precipitation
amounts (40% chance of rainfall amounts
exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point).
Due to the lack of consistent model trends so far, the desire to
issue a flood watch this shift was forgone. If our current forecast
continues to hold consistent, however, it is likely that we may need
to include a considerable portion of the area into a Flood watch for
Saturday night.


Sunday and Beyond....

Temperatures through the middle of next week look to remain somewhat
stable. Highs are currently forecast to cool down to the 70s by
Monday, with highs staying mainly in the 70s to low 80s through the
middle of next week. The long range forecast model guidance
(GFS/ECMWF) both appear to be hinting at a second shortwave
disturbance passing through the area sometime Monday through
Wednesday. This disturbance will likely bring yet another chance for
a few storms in and out of the area. Confidence drops off
substantially after Sunday as timing of any potential precipitation
diverges between the models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Light
and variable winds are expected tonight as a broad area of
higher pressure sits over the area. Weak southerly flow will
return during the daytime hours as this high moves off to the
east. Winds will continue to back this evening, becoming more
easterly by the end of the forecast period.

There is a chance of a few showers/thunderstorms in the area
after 20Z, with a possibility of a couple severe
thunderstorms.However, this threat was left out of the TAF due
to the lower confidence in any of these storms actually
impacting the terminals. Despite this thunderstorm uncertainty,
lower ceilings (around 5000ft) will likely build into the area
tomorrow evening/night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion