Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

537
FXUS63 KOAX 041045
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
545 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moving in overnight brings scattered showers with a
  few rumbles of thunder to northeast Nebraska Tuesday morning
  (40-70% chance).

- Rain chances shift to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
  Tuesday evening into Wednesday (60-90% chance).

- Milder temperatures through Thursday, warming back up going
  into the weekend. Dry, seasonably warm weather expected over
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A few showers are starting to move into northeast Nebraska along
the cold front as it pushes into Knox County. As this front
moves through we`ll see winds shift to northerly and scattered
showers spread across the area. While model soundings show
decent shear (35-50kt) behind the front, instability will be
limited making it difficult for us to see much more than a few
lightning strikes with our strongest storms overnight.

Looking back at the larger picture we have a cold front moving
through, stemming from a longwave trough located over central
Canada. This cold front has brought a cooler Canadian air mass
south into the Northern Plains. The cold front looks to stall
across our area tomorrow. Showers and storms trigger along this
boundary as weak shortwaves move across our area. Showers will
likely remain fairly scattered through the morning into the
afternoon due to weak forcing. PWAT values north of our 90th
percentile may allow for some locally heavy rainfall from these
showers and storms, but they should move well enough to not be
much of a threat for flash flooding.

A more substantial shortwave moves through tomorrow night into
Wednesday bringing greater coverage of showers and storms.
Again, we`ll lack enough instability for much of a severe
weather threat overnight, but ample moisture as well as
potential for training storms along the frontal boundary could
lead to greater potential for flash flooding into Wednesday
morning. We`ll get a better idea of the exact corridor for
heavier rainfall once the front stalls this afternoon, but it
should land fairly close to our forecast right now for areas
along and just south of the I-80 corridor. Highest rainfall
amounts through Wednesday look to be mostly over our southwest
Iowa counties which could see around 1-2 inches of rain. Areas
along the heavier rain axis in Nebraska will more likely see
anywhere from 0.5-1.25 inches. Locally higher amounts will be
possible, especially if we see any training storms.

Showers and storms will taper off through the afternoon, ending
by around 7pm Wednesday evening. With cloud cover and rain
through much of the day, highs on Wednesday look to only reach
into the 70s. Even areas in northeast Nebraska that likely
won`t see much rain at all will see highs stay in the mid-to-
upper 70s due to the Canadian air mass in place.

Thursday we see one more vort max round the base of the upper-
level trough across our area before it slides off to the east.
This could bring a few light showers Thursday evening, but our
air mass should be too dry for much to reach the ground at that
point. Temperatures will stay fairly mild with mostly clear
skies, only reaching into the low 80s Thursday afternoon.

Going into the weekend, the ridge over the Desert Southwest
expands eastward, filling in behind the departing trough. This
will allow temperatures to warm back up with highs in the upper
80s on Friday and low-to-mid 90s on Saturday. Not expecting any
rain through the weekend, but will start watching for rain
chances returning possibly as early as Sunday night into early
Monday, but more likely Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A cold front pushed southward across the area this morning,
shifting winds to northerly and bringing scattered showers and
patchy MVFR ceilings behind the front. Winds will become gusty
behind the front, with 18-22 kt gusts expected. Scattered
showers will continue through the period, these showers will be
patchy in coverage and transient, leading to low predictability
in the timeframe of impacts. Each terminals has a 20-30% chance
of showers through the period, with a 15% chance of an isolated
thunderstorms. Amendments will be made as confidence in timing
increases. Other than patchy MVFR conditions under heavier
showers, generally VFR conditions will prevail. A more
persistent band of showers and thunderstorms will develop near
KOMA by 05/04-06Z, expanding towards KLNK and continuing into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

404
FXUS63 KGID 041156
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (30-50%) of showers/thunderstorms today, mainly
  between noon-7PM this afternoon. None of these storms are
  expected to be severe.

- Precipitation chances continue Wednesday morning through
  early afternoon, with a 50-80% chance. Again, severe storms
  are not expected.

- Cooler temperatures today through Thursday, with highs
  generally in the 70s to low 80s.

- After Thursday, a drier period is expected. Temperatures will
  increase through the weekend, with highs into the 90s by
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The main message of the short term forecast (Days 1-3) is the
cooler temperatures and continued chance of precipitation.
Taking a look at the synoptic pattern, a broad long-wave trough
resides over the Hudson Bay. Within this trough exists a couple
of vorticity maximums, one of which supported the low-pressure
center and associated cold front that moved through the area
overnight. This cold front posed as the main forcing mechanism
for the showers and thunderstorms observed overnight, and will
continue supporting lingering storms into the morning hours as
the front clears central NE/KS. In the wake of this cold front,
model guidance has continued to support spotty storm
development. The main timeframe for this redevelopment is
between noon-7PM, although a few early birds and stranglers
can`t be ruled out. Furthermore, some uncertainty remains with
the overall coverage of this precipitation and if it will linger
into Wednesday morning. These storms are not expected to be
severe, with CAPE values less than 100 J/kg through most of the
area despite the availability of shear greater than 30 kts.
Aside from the precipitation chances, strong NE winds will
decrease through the afternoon, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph
possible through the afternoon. This, combined with midlevel
cloud cover, will keep temperatures cool, with highs in the low
70s to low 80s.

The other shortwave mentioned above will dig into the area
Wednesday, supporting more widespread showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon. Both LREF and NBM show 6 hour precip
probabilities of 50-80% of rain between Wednesday morning into early
afternoon in south central NE, mainly concentrated along and south
of I80. However, there is some uncertainty in the timing and
coverage of these storms, as some model guidance brings this
convection through the area as early as 10AM. Nonetheless, EFI/SOT
is highlighting a wetter than normal rainfall for south central NE
Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, with a 40-60% chance of
seeing over 0.50 inches of rain by Thursday morning for locations
between I-80 and the state line. Winds will be less of an issue
Wednesday, with predominantly ENE winds of 10-15 MPH. Wednesday and
Thursday will again be cooler than normal, with an EFI greater than
0.7 for most of the area and highs in the 70s to low 80s.

As for the extended forecast (Day 3 and beyond), not much has
changed, as model guidance is still suggesting a gradual increase in
temperatures through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds into
the area. There is high confidence (85-95%) of dry weekend ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Been a warmer, gusty start to the work week across the entire
forecast area...and while the majority are sitting with
little/no cloud cover, satellite imagery showing a fairly
thick batch of wildfire smoke passing through, keeping skies
hazy. This smoke has remain in the upper levels, with no area
automated sites showing any reductions in visibility, a trend
that should continue the rest of the day. Looking aloft, data
showing high pressure centered over AZ/NM...with a dampened
ridge axis extending northeastward through the Central Plains
toward the Great Lakes. Troughing/low pressure along the East
Coast is keeping this ridging from sliding east...while low
pressure over north-central Canada and southward extending
troughing into the NNWrn CONUS is what has diminished the ridge
strength. Satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance
making its way east across the Nrn Rockies...which will aid in
storm development with time this afternoon. At the surface, the
gusty south-southeasterly winds are being driven by a tightened
pressure gradient in place...set up between high pressure over
much of the Midwest and an approaching cold front. This front
currently sits from the southern NE panhandle up into central
SD...with winds across the forecast area gusting around 25-30
MPH. Temps are a touch warmer...with 3PM obs sitting in the mid
80s to mid 90s.

At least scattered activity is expected to continue developing
along that surface frontal boundary the rest of this
afternoon...with the main question going into this
evening/tonight continuing to lie with how much of an impact
there is on our forecast area. Models continue to the better
potential being several hours off yet, and kept an mention of
chances out through 00Z (some models say it could be closer to
02-03Z). Through the overnight hours...there still some
differences with just how much coverage there is, but general
idea is that things end up staying on the more scattered side.
Lift is aided by an increasing southwesterly LLJ, but the better
upper level forcing remains off to our north. Storm chances
have other things working against there being greater coverage
with time...loss of daytime heating. models showing warm mid-
level temps/capping remaining in place, and the further east
things push, should push out of the area of better instability.
Still not out of the question that a few storms early on could
be on the strong to marginally severe side...and our WNW
portions remain in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Gusts near
60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the primary hazards.
Didn`t get cute with PoPs through the overnight hours...pretty
much anywhere could see at least an isolated shower/storm, so
kept the 20 percent chances going CWA-wide.

The main surface cold front will continue sinking south with
time overnight...by 12Z Tuesday, models are in pretty good
agreement showing the front draped across the southeastern
quarter or so of the forecast area. May end up with a gradient
in lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the far NW to
around 70 in the SE.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall, no notable changes in the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday...with continued precipitation chances and cooler
temperatures still expected. Models remain in generally good
agreement in the broader-scale. showing the upper level pattern
remaining zonal across the Central Plains. Although on the
weaker side, models showing the potential for enough lift
lingering around to keep chances for at least spotty
precipitation around for much of the day. Still some differences
and uncertainty with the overall coverage...and whether there
is a bit stronger of a wave/more precip coverage as we get more
into the evening/overnight hours into Wed AM. NBM have some
widespread, higher PoPs between 06-18Z Wed (60-70 percent)...the
models supporting that timing show the better potential mainly
across portions of south central NE. Still looking like the
potential for severe weather is low, better instability should
be becoming more focused to our south. With the increased cloud
cover, precipitation chances, and continued northeasterly winds
behind the cold front...high temperatures are forecast to range
from the low 70s-low 80s on Tuesday to low-mid 70s for
Wednesday.

Thursday and on...

For the end of this week on into the start of next week...again
not much as far as notable changes go in the forecast. Models
continue to show the upper level pattern across the region in
varying degrees of west-northwesterly flow. The main ridge tries
to build back north over the western CONUS...but additional
larger-scale disturbances mainly moving across Canada prevent it
from amplifying too much. Precipitation chances Thursday
through the weekend are spotty at best...and confidence in those
chances are certainly not high at this point. After the cooler
temps Tue-Wed, temperatures look to bounce back well into the
90s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though not widespread or long lasting, ceilings as low as
1,500ft may occasionally come and go across the morning hours
(through mainly 18z) as low-level clouds near scattered to
broken classifications. The main cloud base will generally range
between 5-15kft for the day. A chance of MVFR ceilings (20-40%)
return late tonight into Wednesday morning as a few showers and
non-severe thunderstorms approach the area. As of now, the
mention remains in a prob30 group as confidence is on the lower
end for now.

Any scattered storms that near the vicinity of KEAR/KGRI this
afternoon (best potential between 17-13z) should be fairly
short-lived with limited aviation impacts. The winds will
remain out of a northeasterly direction through the day and
night. Wind speeds are likely at their strongest point
(currently gusting as high as 25-30kts as of 11z). Speeds will
eventually dampen over the mainly evening and overnight period.
Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation, possible in the
form of thunderstorms, will come overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning (30-50% chance).


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Scott
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion