Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

820
FXUS63 KOAX 071117
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
517 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing rain/drizzle linger over northeast Nebraska
  through the early morning hours before changing all to snow.
  Most locations see a glaze of ice with minor snow
  accumulations.

- Dry conditions expected for the rest of Saturday and Sunday.
  Highs rebound Sunday to the mid 60s to low 70s.

- Next chance for precipitation returns late Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning (30 to 60% chance)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

A mix of severe and wintry weather is observed across the
forecast area as of 0340z. Convection should continue to push
east northeast here within the next few hours, exiting the bulk
of the forecast area by midnight.

Our attention for the rest of the short term turns to the wintry
weather across northeast Nebraska. Forecast BUFKIT soundings
show low level saturation over much of that area through the
early morning hours in sub freezing temperatures with little to
no ice introduction. RAP vertical cross sections show weak
omega of around -5 ubars in this layer suggests areas of
freezing drizzle/rain developing. Latest METARs in the area
have reported anywhere from a trace to around a tenth of an inch
of ice with this activity. So, expect a few slick spots in
these areas through at least 08z. Eventually, the column cools
enough with some ice introduction observed leading to light
snow. Areas northwest of a line from Neligh to Hartington have
the best potential at seeing at least a tenth of an inch or more
of snow (60-85% chance), while probabilities significantly
taper off with a half inch or more at around 30% along far
northern Knox County. PoPs remain at 30 to 50% across far
northeast Nebraska through at least 10z.

Sfc high pressure is progged to move into the area for the rest
of day Saturday with dry conditions. Highs remain in the upper
40s to low 50s. Southerly flow returns Sunday with highs
rebounding to the mid 60s to low 70s under dry conditions.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Temperatures in the 60s and 70s persist through Monday and
Tuesday with dry conditions. PoPs of 30 to 60% return to the
forecast by late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Highs cool
wednesday to the mid 50s before widespread 60s return to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low-end MVFR conditions are in place this morning, with
northwesterly winds gusting periodically to 20-25 kts and a few
areas of MVFR visibility to the north and east of the KOMA area.
The back edge of the clouds are near KOFK, with a quick jump to
clear skies behind it that will continue to spread eastward over
the next 2-4 hours, leaving all three sites free of restrictions
by 16z. From there, winds will shift southwesterly this evening,
with low-level wind shear as speeds at FL020 reach 40-45 kts
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

032
FXUS63 KGID 071127
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 50s and sunny skies.

- Near-Critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday
  afternoon for areas mainly north of I-80 and west of Highway
  281.

- Seasonably warm weather Sunday and Monday with highs in the 70s.

- Largely dry weather expected throughout the forecast period
  with a chance for light precipitation behind a cold front on
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 243 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 20s and 30s
under widespread stratus. Stratus will gradually erode from
west to east this morning, with skies becoming mostly clear by
the mid morning hours. Aloft a positively tilted trough
stretches from the northern Plains to southwestern California.
The southern portion of this trough will get cutoff over the
southwest today as the northern portion moves into the Midwest.

A pleasant day is expected across the area today as highs climb into
the 50s under mostly sunny skies. Northwest winds gusting 15-25mph
this morning will become light and southwesterly by the afternoon as
a high pressure system moves into the Plains and the pressure
gradient weakens. Relative humidity (RH) values fall below 25%
across southwestern portions of the area this afternoon. Despite the
low RH, decreasing winds should keep fire weather conditions from
reaching near-critical values, though a brief window could develop
west of Highway 183 in Nebraska if mixing is greater than forecast.

Warm and sunny weather continues on Sunday as highs climb to around
70 degrees. This warmth will also bring near-critical fire weather
concerns to the area as RH values fall below 25% and westerly winds
gust 20-25mph. Areas with the highest fire weather concerns look to
be along/north of I-80 and west of Highway 281. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track with largely dry weather expected outside
of a chance for light precipitation behind a cold front on
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main story up front: A few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon for mainly our southeastern portions of the
area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk (level 2
of 5) across a few of our southeastern Nebraska and Kansas counties
(areas southeast of a line from York to Smith Center). Storms across
north central Kansas and mainly areas east of HWY-281 in Nebraska
may develop in 2 waves between 2-9PM. Storms developing earlier on
and along the front (areas mainly within the slight risk area), will
be more likely to become severe. The strongest storms may carry up
to golf ball sized hail and/or produce wind gusts near 60MPH. An
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out along the front (2% SPC Tornado
Risk), though the fast rushing cold air advection behind the front
may keep the threat fairly minimal (mainly only for
Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer counties).

The second wave of elevated storms developing later behind the front
(mainly across Nebraska areas east of HWY-281) will in all
likeliness be less severe in nature, though a few "hailers" can`t be
completely ruled out. In addition to the scattered storms, freezing
rain and sleet on the back end of the system may bring in a quick
wintry mix to a few portions of central Nebraska later this evening
and tonight. Snowfall amounts should remain less than 0.5",
primarily coating some areas north of HWY-6 with a glazing to few
hundredths of an inch of ice and a trace to few tents of an inch of
snow. Despite the light accumulations, slick spots on roadways mixed
with northerly wind gusts of 25-35MPH could cause reduced
visibilities and tricky travel conditions later this evening and
tonight. At this point in time, we do not believe that impacts will
be widespread enough for a Winter Weather Advisory, though we will
keep a close eye for worsening conditions.

What is diving our forecast?: Aloft, we find the area underneath the
difluent region of a Rockies centered trough, forcing rising motion
from mid-level PVA. Pressure falls at the surface completes the
picture with the triple point of a warm front, cold front and
dryline all meeting across north central Kansas this afternoon. The
warm front, east of the area, will continue to move northeast,
increasing instability ahead of the cold front (up to 2,000J of CAPE
across a few southeastern portions of the area). The dryline setting
up across central Kansas has created a tight moisture gradient that
is mixing eastward. These two features will provide the main support
for this afternoon`s severe storm potential across mainly Filmore,
Thayer, Nuckolls, Jewell, Mitchell and Osborne counties. The last
remaining piece of the puzzle has been the cold front that blew
through a majority of the area already today. This influx of cooler
air near the surface will set the stage up for wintry action across
a few locations north of HWY-6 later this evening and tonight.

The forecast beyond tonight is mostly dry with only a minor 20-30%
chance of precipitation returning to the area Tuesday night. The
upper-level pattern is expected to flatten out zonally, limiting the
potential for am amplified trough/ridging pattern. As result, highs
will remain in the 50s for Saturday then quickly warming back up to
the upper 60s and 70s by Monday. Highs thereafter (through next
Friday) are expected to flip-flop between the 50s, 60s and low 70s.
A cutoff low in the southwest will close in on to the
central/southern Plains around mid-week, possibly aiding in the
development of a Central Plains shortwave trough (reason for the 20-
30% PoPs). At this point in time, this event is too far out to be
able to reveal too many more details. The only other forecast note
will be the presence of near-critical fire weather conditions
setting up across a select portion of the area Saturday through
Monday afternoon. Though areas of critical RH values will likely
file into a portion of our southwestern areas each afternoon, at
this point in time, it is uncertain if the winds will be strong
enough to support critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Northwest winds
shift to the west-southwest during the afternoon, becoming light
and southwesterly during the evening. Southwest winds
strengthen to 10-15kts around midnight. Clear skies are
expected during the daytime hours with a few high clouds
possible overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion