Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

455
FXUS63 KOAX 092319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
519 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds are likely (>80%) tonight into
  Wednesday morning with gusts up to 50-65 mph.

- Light, mixed-precipitation chances (20-30%) Wednesday night
  into Thursday, followed by a return of colder temperatures
  for the weekend.

- Another round of light snow is possible (20-40% chance) Friday
  night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery and objective analysis
indicate an elongated vorticity ribbon from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into ND, on the cyclonic side of mid/upper-
level jet streaks extending from the Pacific coast into northern
Plains. The interaction of those features will result in
considerable trough amplification across the north-central U.S.
over the next 12-24 hours. Meanwhile at the surface, low
pressure currently over central ND will track southeast into the
upper Midwest overnight with a trailing cold front diving south
through our area.

To the south of the surface low track, southwest to west winds
have advected a considerably warmer air mass into our area with
2 PM temperatures in the 50s across most of eastern NE. The
warm spot was Albion at 58 degrees. The warm temperatures will
work hard to melt much of the remaining snow cover in our area
today, ahead of the cold front approaching from the north. A few
sprinkles appear possible this afternoon into evening as a
leading belt of forcing for ascent saturates the atmosphere 9-10
kft above ground.

Tonight, the rapid intensification of the weather system
mentioned above will result in considerable strengthening of the
northwest winds developing behind the surface cold front.
Several deterministic models indicate wind gusts of 55-65 mph
with the 12z HREF indicating a large swath of median and mean
wind gusts of 50-55+ mph moving through at least the northern
half of our area overnight into Wednesday morning. As such, we
have upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for
locations along and north of a David City to Omaha metro to
Oakland, IA line.

Winds will diminish through the day Wednesday with high
temperatures ranging from the low 40s in the southwest part of
our area to upper 20s to low 30s in the northeast.


Wednesday night and Thursday:

Strengthening low/mid-level warm advection occurring on the
backside of a surface ridge shifting to the east will support a
chance of light precipitation (20-30% PoPs) in portions of
northeast NE and west-central IA. Based on model soundings and
explicit precipition-type output, it appears any precipitation
would start out as light snow with a possible mix with freezing
drizzle or light freezing rain occurring Thursday morning. Any
ice accumulation would be light, but it doesn`t take much to
cause problems. So, we`re monitoring model trends closely.

Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the low 50s in the
southwest part of our area to low 30s in areas that stand the
best chance to see any light precipitation.


Friday through Monday:

A colder air mass will filter into the region on the backside of
the Wednesday night-Thursday system with highs in the 20s and
30s Friday, and teens and 20s Saturday. Another clipper system
is forecast to pass to our north Friday night into Saturday with
an associated zone of warm advection supporting a 20-40% chance
of light snow across northeast NE into west-central IA. The
coldest temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning with readings in the single digits above and below zero.
Associated wind chills of -10 to -20 are forecast in northeast
NE and southwest IA with generally -5 to -10 elsewhere.

Current indications are that we will see moderating temperatures
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
MVFR ceilings appear unlikely (045-050>053.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Wednesday
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>032.
IA...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday
     for IAZ043-055-056-069.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

648
FXUS63 KGID 092038
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
238 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6
  AM Wednesday along and north of a line from Sherman County to
  Polk County.

- There is around a 10% chance of light rain and/or sprinkles
  this evening.

- Highly variable temperatures are expected. The coldest
  temperatures will be this weekend with warming conditions
  beginning Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today through tonight...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the
country with upper ridging over California extending to southwest
Texas. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is moving
over the northern Plains/upper Midwest with an associated surface
low extending southward towards west Texas and eastern New Mexico.
The surface low has resulted in southwest to west winds across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. This has also
resulted in a warm up across the area with high temperatures today
expected to be in the 50s and 60s. A cold front will move into the
area this evening into tonight as the shortwave moves southeastward.
This front will bring gusty northwest winds across the area this
evening and tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 MPH are expected
with gusts of 30 to 60 MPH. A High Wind Warning is in effect along
and north of a line from Sherman to Polk County from 6 PM this
evening to 6 AM Wednesday. Some sprinkles or light rain showers may
occur this evening (around a 10% chance) as the front moves into the
area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of the upper trough on Wednesday. Winds will
initially be gusty out of the northwest then will weaken and switch
to the south during the evening. Temperatures will be cooler with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s on Wednesday. Some models are
indicating an increase in upper lift across portions of northeast
and east Nebraska Wednesday evening and night with precipitation
developing into central and south central Nebraska (mainly for
locations along and north and east of the Tri-Cities). The NAM12
does not indicate this increase in upper lift; therefore, is not
showing any precipitation in central or eastern Nebraska. The GFS
does indicate the increase in upper lift and is showing
precipitation Wednesday evening and night across the above mentioned
locations. If this precipitation develops and moves across portions
of the area, some of it may be in the form of snow due to overnight
temperatures Wednesday night cooling into the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Any snow accumulations are expected to be light.

Thursday and Thursday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough is expected to move further
east on Thursday, and a surface trough will move into Nebraska and
Kansas from the west. This surface trough is expected to create a
large temperature gradient across Nebraska and Kansas. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperatures on Thursday due to
the placement of this gradient. At this time, expect highs on
Thursday to range from the upper 40s in the northeastern part of the
forecast area to the upper 60s in the southwest. Winds on Thursday
will switch to the west (in the warm sector) then to the north later
in the day/evening as a cold front begins to move into the area. Low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the low 20s in the north
to the mid 30s in the south.

Friday through Monday...

A surface high will be across the area on Friday with northerly
winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas. High temperatures behind the cold front on Friday are
expected to range from the low 30s to mid 40s. Winds will switch to
the east and southeast Friday night with temperatures dropping to
around 11 degrees to the low/mid 20s. Another cold front is expected
to push into the area on Saturday with high temperatures only in the
low 20s to low 40s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the
single digits to low teens. High temperatures on Sunday will be
similar to those on Saturday. Low temperatures Sunday night are
expected to be in the teens and low 20s. A warm up is in store for
Monday with the surface high moving further east. High temperatures
on Monday are expected to be in the low 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours
although there is a slight chance of MVFR ceilings for KGRI
around 15z. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest to west
this afternoon then winds will decrease slightly around 00z out
of the west. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest
around/by 03z with gusts above 30 knots expected. Winds will
decrease by 15z out of the northwest. Wind shear is possible
this afternoon but is more likely around 00z through 15z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion