Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

030
FXUS63 KOAX 191856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
156 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
  Highs today reach the low 70s and 80s.

- Temperatures warm to the 80s for much of the area Friday and
  Saturday, and a few records could be broken.

- Areas of very high to potentially extreme fire danger are
  forecast for portions of the area Friday and Saturday, driven
  mainly by dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features the persistent
mid/upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS, with
heights continuing to build across the Great Plains and shuffle
away the exiting trough to the east. Drilling down to the
surface, another surface trough/effective warm front has pushed
east of the area into west- central Iowa, allowing temperatures
to soar well into the mid-to- upper 70s already this afternoon.
Though we have warmed quite a bit today, dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s have continued to stick around, keeping humidity values
from falling too far below 25-35% while very light winds keep
the overall fire danger in the high/very high range. Winds will
waver southerly overnight while staying calm, and temperatures
bottom out in the 40s.

Friday and Saturday:

Friday and Saturday will be the two days to watch, where drying
conditions and record-breaking (or at least nearly so) temperatures
headline the message of the forecast. The mid/upper pattern along
with the low-level thermal ridge to the west will spread eastward,
allowing a good westerly component of the wind directions to
accentuate the warming at the surface. Highs area-wide are expected
to reach into the 80s Friday, with Omaha and Lincoln currently
forecast to break their records (78 and 80 respectively), while KOFK
stays just under theirs. Deep mixing will continue during the late
mornings and afternoons, helping to bring dry air from aloft down to
the surface and lower dewpoints. As a result, very high fire danger
is forecast Friday as we continue forward with extremely dry fuels,
though the overall danger is limited by gentle winds.

By Saturday, the driest conditions are forecast where humidity
values drop down into the 14-24% range thanks to the warmest
temperatures of the year so far. Highs are set to push into the
upper 80s and even low 90s and potentially break records for the
second day in a row. There are only a handful of days where
Omaha, Lincoln, or Norfolk have reached the 90 degree mark in
March, let alone this early. Winds will be on the increase as
well, as they mix into somewhat breezy winds aloft and gust to
20-30 mph at the surface. Very high to extreme fire danger is
forecast for the area, with all of eastern Nebraska joining the
central and western portions of the state in a Fire Weather
Watch from 11 AM to 3 AM Sunday. As of now, the winds may be a
bit too light to see the whole watch be turned into a warning,
but the forecast come into focus more as we approach the period.

Sunday and Beyond...

A shortwave and associated cold front will ripple through the region
Saturday night and Sunday. Relatively cooler temperatures will surge
south, as gusty north winds overspread the Central Plains. Highs are
forecast to top out in the low 60s Sunday with minimum relative
humidities around 25 to 40 percent. While this combination may help
improve fire weather concerns to some extent, northerly winds are
expected to reach speeds of 25 to 35+ mph Sunday morning, keeping
parts of eastern Nebraska in the Very High category.

Precipitation chances continue to remain low through early next
week. Although a glancing blow from a weak shortwave rippling
through the northwesterly flow isn`t totally out of the realm of
possibility. While temperatures may take a brief dip behind Sunday`s
cold front, we should remain above normal through the remainder of
the forecast period. In fact, some solutions are beginning to point
at the potential for another round of increased fire danger by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are set to hold through the next 24 hours, with
mostly clear skies and winds that are somewhat variable to start
but end up westerly before shifting southwesterly overnight. By
10z tomorrow, directions begin shifting northwesterly into the
afternoon, all at less than 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG/Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

144
FXUS63 KGID 191718
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1218 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...AVIATION/CLIMATE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonable record-breaking warmth continues through
  Saturday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Saturday and Saturday
  night.

- Dry conditions are favored to continue through the end of
  March.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The only major update overnight was the introduction of a Fire
Weather Watch for Saturday.

Despite the extreme warmth and dryness, winds today and Friday
should remain light enough to escape any significant fire
concerns. That changes on Saturday as southwesterly winds
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. There is still some
uncertainty on exact extent/magnitude of the wind, but the EPS
ensemble has gusts across the entire area near or above 25 MPH
during the afternoon. Humidity is no question. Temperatures in
the upper 80s and 90s will push humidity to 10-15% for much of
the region, and some western areas could see humidity dip into
the single digits.

Additionally, the cold front will move through the area Saturday
evening into Saturday night, potentially complicating the threat
for any fires that would develop. As such, the Fire Weather
Watch runs until 4am Sunday morning.

Temperatures briefly dip to near-normal for Sunday/Monday, but
are expected to soar back into the 80s for the middle of next
week. Dry or mostly dry conditions are still expected through
the end of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Temperatures this afternoon are in the mid to upper 70s under patchy
cirrus. Near-critical fire weather conditions will continue this
afternoon where gusts reach 20-25mph, but critical conditions are
not expected (other than briefly with the strongest gusts). Aloft
the area sits under the eastern edge of an upper level ridge that is
centered over the western United States with a trough over the east
coast. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s under partly
cloudy skies.

Warmth continues tomorrow under the influence of ridging aloft.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, warmest across
southwestern portions of the area. Winds remain light during the
daytime hours, keeping gusts at or below 20mph. This limits
fire weather concerns despite afternoon relative humidity values
falling at or below 25%. Ridging builds/moves over the area on
Friday, resulting in another step up in warmth/above normal
temperatures. Highs in the 80s are expected across the area.
Grand Island and Hastings could challenge record highs, see
climate section for more details. Winds remain light, keeping
fire weather concerns lower.

Saturday remains the warmest day across the forecast area under the
center of the ridge. Highs soar into the upper 80s to low 90s. Grand
Island and Hastings look to challenge both the daily and monthly
record high (monthly record 90 degrees), see climate section
for more details. Breezy afternoon winds, gusting 25+mph brings
concerns for fire weather. Afternoon relative humidity values of
10-20% would bring critical fire weather conditions of winds
are strong enough.

A shortwave trough moves into the area Saturday night, pushing a
cold front through the area. This front could bring some very light
precipitation, though the best chances look to be north/northeast of
the forecast area. Cooler but still seasonably warm weather is
expected on Sunday and Monday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Ridging builds back over the area Tuesday and highs climb back to
the 70s/80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period.

Expect some passing high clouds and good VSBYs through the
period with winds being the main focus. Light west
northwesterly winds...less than 8 KTS...are anticipated through
the afternoon hours with near calm winds expected overnight as
the atmosphere decouples. Could see some very marginal LLWS
towards daybreak Friday as the pressure gradient tightens up
just a bit, with light northwesterly winds...near 10 kts...re-
establishing themselves across the area by the late morning
hours Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Potential Record Warm Maximum Temperatures:

Thursday March 19          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        86               84 (1921)
Grand Island                    85               86 (1921)

Friday March 20            Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        87               82 (1939)
Grand Island                    86               84 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        94               87 (1910)
Grand Island                    93               83 (1988)

Wednesday March 25         Forecast High     Record Max/Year
Hastings                        84               85 (1956)
Grand Island                    85               88 (1910)

***Note: The all-time March max temperature is 90 degrees
at both Grand Island and Hastings***

Potential Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

Friday March 20            Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        47               46 (2011)
Grand Island                    46               50 (1921)

Saturday March 21          Forecast Low    Record Warm Min/Year
Hastings                        48               47 (2012)
Grand Island                    47               54 (1911)

Temperature records for Hastings date back to 1907 and they
date back to 1895 for Grand Island.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Rossi
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion