Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

424
FXUS63 KOAX 112321
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-30% chance of precipitation tonight in far northeast
  Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Expect mostly rain, but a
  few snowflakes could mix in, with little to no accumulation.

- A warming trend will continue into early next week, with mid
  50s to mid 60s through the weekend and mid 60s to near 70 by
  Tuesday.

- 20-40% chance of rain late Friday night into Saturday, mainly
  near and south of I-80. Expect more rain chances through next
  week starting Tuesday/Wednesday, but confidence in exact
  timing and location is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this morning with surface high
pressure lingering and an upper level ridge axis just to our
west. There was a weak area of surface low pressure in eastern
WY that is progged to develop eastward along the SD/NE border
late this afternoon through the overnight hours. Ahead of this
feature, we`ll see some strengthening mid-level frontogenesis
tonight with most guidance suggesting some resulting QPF in far
northeast NE/southeast SD into west-central IA. Looking at model
soundings, there remains quite a bit of low level dry air that
should keep anything that develops light and spotty. For now,
have chances in the 15-30% range with liquid amounts of a few
hundredths of an inch at most. We should be warm enough for
mostly rain to fall, but can`t rule out a few snowflakes mixing
in at times.

Mean upper level ridging will continue eastward into next week
allowing high temperatures to generally gain a few degrees each
day through Tuesday. Expect upper 50s to lower 60s by Friday,
widespread 60s by Sunday, and mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday
(pending precip chances, more below). That said, a fairly potent
shortwave trough currently off the coast of CA will be pushing
into the Desert Southwest on Friday with surface low spinning up
and pushing across the Southern Plains through Saturday. Still
some spread on exact track of this system, but there are hints
that precip on the northern periphery will clip southern
portions of the forecast area, with consensus giving us a 20-40%
chance of rain late Friday night into Saturday, mainly near and
south of I-80.

Heading into next week, there is general agreement that the
ridging will keep us dry through Monday while larger scale
troughing starts to approach the west coast. Guidance is in
decent agreement that some shortwave energy will eject off this
larger trough and push east early in the week, spinning up a
surface low and potentially bringing us some more precip
chances. However, there is a lot of spread on timing and track
of this energy, ranging from having the surface low over the
forecast area by Tuesday afternoon with precip developing then,
to having the low over MT and any precip staying north of our
area. Later in the week, the main trough will swing through the
central CONUS and give maybe a little more widespread precip,
but again, there remains a lot of spread in timing and most
favored locations for precip. So bottom line, guidance favors
off and on precip chances next week, beginning as early as
Tuesday (20- 30%), with higher chances likely being later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 501 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A passing weather
system is resulting in ceilings of 8-10 kft this evening and
overnight. Any precipitation from this system is anticipated to
remain north of area terminals. Light south winds continue
across the region through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

964
FXUS63 KGID 112336
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are forecast to continue tonight on through
  most of (potentially all) the daytime hours on Friday. Highs
  expected to reach the mid 50s-near 60 Thursday, with most
  spots right around 60 for Friday.

- Friday night into the day on Saturday brings the next chances
  for precipitation to the area, with the best chances focused
  over areas along/south of the NE/KS state line. The brunt of
  precipitation (all-liquid event) is shown by most models to
  be south of the forecast area, though some ensemble data shows
  at least low probabilities of 0.1 in or more reaching into
  southern NE.

- The Sun-Tue timeframe is overall dry, with high temperatures
  climbing into the 60s-near 70, peaking on Tuesday. Another
  disturbances will bring another chance for rain Tuesday night
  into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions remain in place across the region today, with
satellite imagery showing variable cloud cover as batches of
mid-upper level clouds pass through. Upper level flow over the
Plains remains zonal...with upper air and satellite data showing
us set up between area of low pressure spinning off the
northern CA coast and over eastern ME. South-southwesterly winds
continue across the forecast area this afternoon, sitting on
the west edge of an area of sfc high pressure roughly centered
over the NE/IA/MO/KS border area. Overall speeds have been
around 15 MPH, with a handful of gusts closer to 20 MPH at
times. No big surprises as far as temperatures go, on track to
top out in the low-mid 50s. Near-critical fire weather
conditions will remain a possibility across the western fringes
the rest of this afternoon, but not looking at hitting Red Flag
criteria.

Tonight into Thursday...

Models continue to show the potential for some scattered light
precip later tonight associated with a weak upper level
disturbance crossing the Central/Nrn Plains. Kept the forecast
dry, as agreement is pretty good with the better chances
remaining focused just off to our NNE near the NE/SD/IA border
area. Otherwise no notable changes were noted in models, which
keep the zonal upper level flow in place, with that West Coast
disturbance pushing further inland and digging into southern CA
through Thursday night. At the surface, winds tonight remain
southerly, turning more SWrly late tonight as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. During the day on Thursday, this
boundary gradually pushes through the region...but other than
bringing a switch to more NNWrly winds, not much in terms of
notable impact is expected. Expecting sky cover to once again be
variable...and forecast afternoon highs are actually a touch
warmer, reaching the mid 50s-near 60 degrees.

Friday and Saturday...

Main forecast concern for the end of the week remains with
increasing preciptiation chances. The upper level disturbance
mentioned above over southern CA is shown by models to start
making a better push east during the day on Friday, ending up
roughly over the AZ/NM border by late evening. Looking like that
12-00Z Friday time frame is dry for most/potentially all of the
forecast area...could be a close call late in that period for
far SW portions. Will be seeing increasing cloud cover from SW-
NE as that system approaches...with winds switching back to the
south as sfc low pressure deepens a big over the central High
Plains. Forecast highs remain right around 60 degrees.

Friday night on into the day on Saturday...overall models aren`t
in too bad of a agreement with the track of this upper level
system. Outside of some minor track/timing details...models
showing the center of the system sliding along the OK/TX border.
This keeps the brunt of precipitation south of the forecast
area in KS/OK/TX...with the NAM remaining on the more aggressive
side with how far north QPF gets, with amounts around 0.5in
reaching into southern NE. Agreement is good that the thermal
profiles support this being an all-liquid event, which is pretty
unusual for mid-February. Looking at the GFS/ECMWF
deterministic and ensemble data, those type of amounts are over
the southern half of KS and points south. Ensemble data show the
probability of 0.5 in or more only around 10 percent, and
that`s just along our far southern row of counties.
Probabilities of 0.1 in are better, with the 10 percent line
closer to HWY 6, and roughly 40- 50 percent along our southern
row of counties. What precip there ends up being is expected to
end by mid-late evening Saturday. Confidence in highs for
Saturday is not high because of the uncertainties with the
northward extend of precip (which will be hindered by drier
air/more northerly winds)...current forecast has low-mid 50s in
the SSE to near 60 in the NNW.

Sunday and on...

For the first half of the new week, currently much of it looks
to be on the dry side for most of the forecast area. For
Sunday and Monday (and possibly Tuesday as well) , overall-broad
upper level ridging is expected to slide onto the Plains in the
wake of Fri-Sat`s system, keeping things dry. Potential for
another system to bring preciptiation moves in late in the day
Tuesday, more likely Tues night-Wednesday...at this point models
are favoring the northern half of the forecast area with those
chances. With being in the Day 6-7 periods, hard to have a ton
of confidence in many details...chances remain low at 20
percent. Ahead of that system, potential for temperatures to
climb further into the 60s (maybe some 70s?), currently forecast
to top out on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southerly winds will
be around 8-10kts overnight. Around sunrise, winds begin to
shift to the north, remaining light through the afternoon. SCT-
BKN mid-high level clouds are favored throughout the TAF period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion