Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

000
FXUS63 KOAX 020439
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Key Messages:

 - Warm and breezy conditions Sunday with very high rangeland fire
   danger in many areas during the afternoon.

 - A strong weather system to impact the region Tuesday and
   Tuesday night with potential hazards being severe weather,
   accumulating snow, wildfire danger, and strong winds.

Tonight and Sunday:

A ridge of surface high pressure centered over the mid-MO Valley
this afternoon will shift east tonight ahead of a cold front
moving through the Dakotas and central High Plains. The front will
eventually push through our area Sunday. Winds will switch to
south ahead of the front tonight with overnight lows in the mid
30s to low 40s. The south winds will bring warmer conditions to
the region Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 50s near the
SD border to lower 70s over portions of southeast NE and southwest
IA.

The warm temperatures will offset a modest increase in boundary-
layer moisture content with minimum RH values of 20-25% south of
I-80 in NE during the afternoon. As a result, very high rangeland
fire danger is forecast across that area, as well as over much of
southwest IA and northeast NE where stronger winds will compensate
for higher RH.

Sunday night and Monday:

Low to midlevel warm advection is forecast to strengthen across
region in response to the amplification of a prominent midlevel
trough over the interior west. Within that regime, the models
indicate the potential for showers to develop over the lower-MO
Valley Sunday night with that activity spreading north/northeast
into portions of eastern NE and IA Monday. There`s still a fair
amount of model variability in the location and coverage of the
precipitation area, so we will only include 20-30% PoPs in this
forecast. Clouds and any areas of rain will limit daytime heating
with highs on Monday in the 50s.

Monday night through Wednesday:

The main focus of this forecast is another significant extra-
tropical cyclone which is forecast to move through the Great
Plains Tuesday. The 12z global models remain in reasonably good
agreement in the track and intensity of the system with the
current data suggesting a weather scenario on Tuesday quite
similar to that yesterday (Friday). Both the SPC Day 4 outlook and
Colorado State machine-learning severe-weather probabilities
indicate the western edge of a broader threat area developing
Tuesday afternoon over portions of eastern NE and southwest IA,
along ahead of a migratory surface low and associated dryline.
Expect this western edge of severe threat to fluctuate between
now and Tuesday as subsequent model runs continue to refine the
timing of the weather system.

Between the dryline and cold front (mainly over southeast NE),
the potential will exist for an overlap of low RH and strong
winds, which could result in very high to extreme rangeland fire
danger Tuesday afternoon. To the north of the surface low track,
the WPC continues to highlight the northwest part of our area as
having a 30-50% chance of > 0.25" liquid equivalent (i.e.,
snowfall amounts > 2.0-2.5") Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gradient
winds will also be quite strong; from the south/southwest Tuesday
afternoon, and the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.

We will indicate a chance of showers and thunderstorms over much
of the area Monday night with the exception being near the SD
border where a mix of rain and snow is possible. Highest
precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night will be over the
northern half of the area, in closer proximity to the deformation
axis of the synoptic system.

Highs Tuesday will be a function of surface low track; but for
now, we will indicate readings ranging from 40s in the northwest
part of our area to around 80 in the Falls City vicinity. Highs
Wednesday will be notably cooler and in the 30s over northeast NE
with 40s elsewhere.

Thursday and Friday:

A relatively cool air mass will remain in place Thursday with
highs in the 40s to low 50s. Readings are expected to be warmer by
Friday; in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

LLWS threat will persist through the early morning hours at all
terminals. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south leading up
to a cold frontal passage this afternoon as winds gradually shift
to the NW. Expect winds to eventually subside by early evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...DEE

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

000
FXUS63 KGID 020524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Key Messages:

* Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible for a
  portion of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas
  Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

* A potent storm system will move across the Midwest Tuesday and
  Wednesday, bringing a chance of rain, snow, and wind. Any small
  change in the track of this system will impact the amount of
  precipitation and the type of precipitation we will receive.

* Expect a drier forecast to end the week, with temperatures
  returning to the 50s and 60s.

Sunny skies continue across the region this afternoon, along with
some very nice temperatures.  Expect highs to reach the 50s and 60s.
 Near-critical fire weather conditions remain possible this
afternoon for areas of north central Kansas and south central
Nebraska, particularly along and west of Highway 183.  This is due
to minimum relative humidity values falling into the 20 to 25
percent range with west-southwesterly winds gusting to around 20 to
25mph.

Zonal flow develops late this afternoon, persisting across the
region through early Monday morning.  Winds transition from the
south early Sunday morning to the northwest as a boundary moves into
the region.  Gusty winds and minimum relative humidity values
falling in the 20 to 25 percent range will result in the possibility
of near-critical fire weather conditions for portions of south
central Nebraska Sunday afternoon.  Warmer afternoon temperatures
are expected to reach into the 60s and 70s.  Dry conditions persist
through the weekend and into Monday.

An upper trough deepens over the west on Monday, with a closed low
developing early Tuesday morning over Colorado and Wyoming.  The low
will strengthen as it progresses east through the day.  The track
still favors the bulk of any precipitation over the Nebraska
Panhandle into the Dakotas with portions of our area getting dry
slotted.  Precipitation chances have moved a little further to the
south and east since the last forecast.  P-type is initially
expected to be rain, mixing with snow as temperatures fall.  Tuesday
is expected to be a fairly windy day as a tight pressure gradient
sets up over the area as the low continues to intensify and move to
the northeast.  There is a possibility of near-critical to critical
fire weather conditions for the southeastern part of the area.
There will also be a tight temperature gradient in place, with
highs in the 40s in the northwest and in the mid-70s in the
southeastern part of the area. Confidence in the spread in
temperatures is low, as a change in the track of this system will
impact them.

Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday for areas north of I-
80 as the low lifts to the northeast, out of the region.  Expect a
much cooler day for several areas, as high temperatures range from
the mid-30s in the north to upper 40s in the south.

A broad trough remains over the area Thursday and Friday, with drier
conditions expected.  Temperatures will begin on a gradual warming
trend through the end of the forecast period, returning to the upper
50s to mid-60s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period.
Any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain in the mid-
upper levels. Potential for gusty southerly winds will stick
around for few more hours, but speeds are expected to taper off
closer to sunrise. Models continue to show LLWS at both sites
though 09Z at KEAR and 10Z at KGRI. Winds during the daytime hours
will turn more westerly, then north-northwesterly as a sfc frontal
boundary sinks south through the area. Gusts near 20 MPH will
again be possible this afternoon. Winds in the final few hours of
the TAF are expected to turn more ENErly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion