Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

058
FXUS63 KOAX 170545
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on
  Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
  All severe weather hazards will be possible with any severe
  thunderstorms.

- Cooler air arrives behind a cold front on Friday. Saturday
  and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing
  for many locations. Damage to sensitive outdoor vegetation
  will be possible.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Sunday. Relatively warm,
  dry, and quiet weather will accompany this until our next
  potential weather system by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

After a warm, dry, and windy afternoon on Thursday, rapid
moisture return has begun. Dewpoints are already beginning to
climb into the 50s and 60s across portions of the area late
this evening. This is in response to lee troughing and a strong
40 to 50 kt low-level jet ahead of an approaching trough. This
trough is expected to be progressive as it ejects into the
Great Plains tonight. A surface low pressure system is expected
to rapidly develop to the west and move into our area by Friday
morning. A strong cold front will follow this low pressure,
pushing a cooler airmass into the region. Latest high-resolution
forecast guidance has continued the trend of a faster front. In
this event, the cold front will clear all but southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa by early afternoon. This in turn
lowers the risk of severe weather for our area. Showers and
thunderstorms are still aniticpated near the front by early
afternoon, but these will quickly exit to the south and east. If
any severe thunderstorms can strengthen enough prior to this,
all severe hazards will be possible. Elsewhere, cooler and drier
weather gradually filters in behind the front. Temperatures by
Friday afternoon will range from the low 50s across portions of
northeast Nebraska to the low 80s over southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa due to the timing of the front. Temperatures will
plummet after sunset as cold air advection continues to
decrease temperatures heading into Friday night.

By this weekend, the much colder airmass really sets in.
Saturday morning temperatures in the 30s are expected with
below freezing temperatures for portions of northeast Nebraska.
As surface high pressure starts to build in, temperatures may
only reach the 50s by Saturday afternoon. The coldest temperatures
arrive Sunday morning. This is anticipated due to light winds
and clear skies. Sunday morning temperatures are forecast to
drop below freezing for many across the area, except portions of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thankfully, the surface
high pressure moves to our east by Sunday afternoon allowing for
the beginning of a warming trend. With the cold temperatures
during the morning this weekend, damage to sensitive outdoor
plants may be possible.

The first half of next week is marked by warm, dry, and quiet
weather across the region. Temperatures climb into the 70s to
near 80 across the area by Monday. Due to upper-level ridging,
the overall weather pattern is not expected to change until at
least the middle of next week. At this time, our next trough
will begin to approach the region by Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances are expected to return with this system and another
cooldown is likely to follow late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the overnight hours. Expect some
LLWS through sunrise at the terminals. A cold front will move
through KOFK around sunrise, shifting winds from south-southeast
to westerly to northwesterly. The front will push through KOMA
and KLNK later in the morning, with winds also becoming
northwesterly. Winds will increase behind the front, gusting as
high as 30 mph. As far thunderstorm activity, the bulk of that
should stay southeast of KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

231
FXUS63 KGID 170802
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northerly winds gusting 30-40mph expected today behind a cold frontal
  passage. Highs today in the upper 40s to low 60s.

- Clearing skies and decreasing winds Friday night-Saturday
  morning brings a potential for frost/freezing conditions to
  the area. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for most of the
  area 1am-9am Saturday.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday-
  Tuesday due to the combination of breezy winds and low
  humidity. The days of highest concern look to be Saturday and
  Monday.

- Dry and above normal temperatures expected Sunday-early next
  week. The next chance for rain looks to arrive during the
  middle to end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Temperatures this morning are in the 50s and 60s ahead of an
approaching cold front currently located along a line from
Ainsworth to North Platte. This cold front will push through
the area through the early- mid morning hours, exiting
southeastern portions of the area around 10-11pm. Northerly
winds gusting 40-45mph are possible right behind the frontal
passage. Winds remain gusty throughout the day, with gusts of
30-40mph. Little warming is expected during the daytime hours
behind the cold front with temperatures in the upper 40s
(northwest) to low 60s (southeast) this afternoon. There remains
a low chance (15-20%) for a light rain/snow mix to impact
mainly western portions of the area this evening, but minimal
accumulation is expected.

Winds gradually decrease after sunset, with gusts falling below
20mph after midnight. Skies clear after midnight allowing
temperatures to quickly drop towards and below freezing. Areas most
favored to see freezing temperatures will be across central and
northwestern portions of the area. Winds could remain just high
enough to prevent true freeze, especially across southeastern
portions of the area. A Freeze Watch remains in effect Friday night-
Saturday morning (1am-9am) where sub-freezing temperatures are the
most favored.

A seasonable-seaonably cool day is expected on Saturday with highs
in the 50s to low 60s. Breezy northwest winds gusting 25-30mph are
expected during the day. A drier airmass will be in place, with
afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens to low
20s. This will result in widespread near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions across the area. Otherwise the forecast remains
on track with temperatures climbing back above normal Sunday
(60s/70s) and warming into the 80s early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Widespread critical/Red Flag fire weather conditions are playing
out as expected this afternoon. Temperatures have indeed met
expectations for highs in the mid to upper 80s, and with another
hour or two of heating still to go, could see some spots
overachieve into the lower 90s. Dew points remain VERY dry in
the upper teens to lower 30s, so RHs are also extremely low in
the lower to middle teens. The low levels remain well-mixed
through the evening hours thanks to continued Srly flow amidst a
tightening sfc pressure gradient. Thus, RH recovery will be very
slow. Made no changes to the already later-than-usual end time
of the Red Flag Warning that`s set to expire at midnight.

A strong cold front remains on track to sweep NW to SE across
the area between midnight and dawn tonight. Behind the front,
forecast soundings continue to support a surge in gusts up to
around 40-45 MPH with the initial passage. Winds could diminish
slightly as the daytime hours progress on Friday, but it will
still be quite breezy to even windy much of the day.
Temperatures will be fighting strong cold air advection and some
cloud cover and experience little to no diurnal rise. Thus,
it`ll feel quite chilly and blustery and generally not very
enjoyable...esp. compared to today.

Cool temperatures continue into the weekend and will present
some risk for sub-freezing temperatures, for some, along with
perhaps some patchy frost. More specifically on the frost
potential...it may not be too much of an issue since winds will
probably remain too elevated for it Fri night-Sat AM, and the
air may simply be too dry for it Sat night-Sun AM. Nonetheless,
appears a good chunk of the area will drop into the upper 20s to
lower 30s by dawn Sat AM, with favored cold spots in Dawson and
Valley/Greeley Counties possibly even into the mid 20s. Winds
may remain high enough to prevent true potential. Winds will be
lighter Sun AM with more of an influence from the ridge axis, so
would expect similar readings to the previous night, or maybe
even slightly cooler. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for
Friday night - Saturday AM, and fully expect another headline
will be needed for the next night. Otherwise...Saturday will be
similar to Friday in that it will be chilly and blustery...but
Sunday afternoon looks to be much nicer as temps rebound into
the 70s amidst good sunshine and much lighter winds.

Temperatures will warm even more for the start of the new work
week, and may be borderline "hot" (kinda like today) by Tue-Wed.
Models suggest the next cold front and decent chance for
organized precipitation not coming until about 7 days from now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period. A cold front will
move through the TAF sites between 10 and 12z. There is a brief
window 11-17z where MVFR ceilings are possible (15%) but MVFR
clouds look to be too scattered to become prevailing. Otherwise
low VFR ceilings are expected to develop by the late morning
hours. Ceilings are then favored to gradually rise during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

Southerly winds gusting 20-25kts are expected till the cold
frontal passage around 10-12z (earliest at KEAR). Winds shift to
the north behind the front, with sustained winds of 20-25kts and
gusts of 30-35kts. Winds remain gusty throughout the daytime
hours. Winds gradually fall off around sunset, with gusts
falling below 20kts around the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>076-082>085.
KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     KSZ005-006-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion