Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

237
FXUS63 KOAX 200528
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Monday.
  Expect afternoon heat index values of 105 to 110 with
  overnight heat indices remaining in the 70s.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday
  afternoon and evening (10-20% chance in northeast Nebraska and
  west-central Iowa). Damaging winds will be the primary
  threat.

- Cooler weather returns by the middle of the week, with high
  temperatures falling back into the 80s and even some 70s
  Thursday. There will be increasing chances for showers and
  storms Wednesday night into Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Evening analysis showed a warm front stretched from northwest
to southeast across far northeast NE into southwest IA and slowly
pushing eastward. To the northwest, a broken line of showers
and even a cluster of severe storms had developed along a wind
shift across SD into western NE, but had since largely
dissipated as of 930 PM with slightly drier air aloft and weaker
shear this direction. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that
nothing additional will form. However, given plenty of
instability to work with and strengthening moisture transport as
we go into the overnight, wouldn`t completely rule out another
storm popping up with potential for it to produce some gusty
winds if it does. One other thing of note overnight will be some
fog potential along the aforementioned warm front, mainly in
within a county or two of the Missouri River. Model soundings
suggest winds aloft will be strong enough to keep it somewhat
patchy, but we did see development along that same boundary last
night/this morning.

With the warm front continuing to push east, the warmest air of the
year thus far looks to build in for Monday. Expect highs in the
upper 90s and lower 100s for much of the area, with latest short
term guidance giving a 60 to 100% chance of hitting at least 100
degrees near and west of the Missouri River. In addition, dewpoints
look to remain in the 70s across much of the area, yielding heat
indices in the 105 to 110 range. A Heat Advisory remains in place
through 10 PM for the entire area.

By the afternoon, attention turns to strong to severe storm chances
as a cold front starts to work into the area from the north. Latest
CAMs are in good agreement that we see scattered storms start to
develop along the boundary in northeast NE into west-central IA by 3-
4 PM. Once again, plenty of instability to work with, but strongest
deep layer shear looks to be confined behind the front. That said,
there could be just enough overlap right along the boundary to yield
some degree of storm organization and a threat for strong to severe
storms. The main threat would be damaging downburst winds as storms
collapse, with deep inverted V model soundings. Still some questions
on how far south these storms will make it, but latest guidance
confines them to areas north of an east-west line through the Omaha
metro. A second round of showers and storms is looking possible (20-
30% chance) overnight as a shortwave trough approaches. These look
unlikely to be severe with most of the instability scoured out
behind the front.


Behind the front, we`ll see relief from the heat, especially in the
Wednesday-Friday period. Temperatures on Tuesday look to remain
close to average for this time of year, topping out in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, but expect widespread lower to mid 80s Wednesday, and
even a few spots staying stuck in the 70s on Thursday. Something
else to note is that latest HRRR guidance suggests we could see a
little smoke make it to the surface with the subsidence behind the
front. At this point, concentrations look like they`ll be rather
low, but maybe just enough to notice. Otherwise, we`ll also see some
higher chances for more widespread showers and a few storms
Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday as a
couple shortwave troughs slide through with a decent surface low
passing by to our south (40-70% chance both nights). Severe weather
chances continue to look minimal (under 5%) with very little
instability in place.

Now for some unfortunate news. The upper level ridging that brought
us the heat looks to edge back eastward for the weekend, with highs
looking to get back into upper 80s and 90s. On top of that, long
term outlooks favor warmer-than-average temperatures continuing into
the first few days of August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
areas of patchy fog possible southeast of KOMA near the NE/IA/MO
border region from 09-13z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds are
expected with slightly stronger speeds compared to the past few
days. A wind shift boundary is expected to slide southward
towards the terminals after 18z tomorrow, serving also as a
focus of isolated to scattered storm development (20-40%
chance), with the best bet for storms being east of KOMA after
21z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016-
     017.
IA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

594
FXUS63 KGID 200507
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat Advisory in effect 10am-10pm Monday with heat index
   values up to 108 degrees.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible (15-20%) along and
  north Highway 92 in Nebraska late Monday afternoon/evening.

- Highs in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south) on Tuesday
  with northerly winds gusting 20-25mph.

- More widespread shower/storm chances (40-70%) arrive Wednesday
  and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s, warmest across
north central Kansas. Heat index values are expected to top out
around or slightly over 100 degrees. Scattered thunderstorm chances
look to remain east/south of the forecast area this afternoon-
evening. Lows tonight will be in the 70s with clear skies and light
winds.

Monday...

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the forecast period as
highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Hot temperatures combined
with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees will result in heat
index values in the mid to upper 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the entire area from 10am to 10pm Monday.

During the late afternoon-early evening hours, a cold front pushes
into far northern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is possible (15-20%) along this front. Any
storm would likely come to an end around sunset as stability
increases. Areas with the highest chance to see a storm will be
along and north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. Shear looks to be higher
than on previous days, and could support a storm on the stronger
side (gusty winds possible). The cold front steadily pushes south
across the area overnight, though lows remain in the 70s overnight.

Tuesday...

The cold front will reach portions of north central Kansas around
sunrise on Tuesday. Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest
transitions the area to a northwesterly flow pattern. Breezy winds
are expected on Tuesday behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south).

Wednesday Onwards...

Rain chances return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday as a
series of disturbances traverse through the northwesterly flow
aloft. Wherever cloud coverage and lingering convection sets up,
highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be sightly cooler, in the 80s.
At this time models support two waves of showers/storms moving
through the area: one Wednesday-Thursday AM which favors
northeastern portions of the area, and a second Thursday
evening/night which favors more central portions of the area.
There`s still plenty of time for things to change, and the exact
track of these rain chances will become clearer as we get closer in
time. Otherwise temperatures begin to climb back above normal as we
move into next weekend with ridging rebuilds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at both terminals. Winds are
light and southerly, but may be variable overnight with the
light speed. Winds will become more southwesterly early Monday
before becoming southerly again in the afternoon hours. Speeds
aren`t overly strong, generally below 10kts. There is a
possibility for some showers and weak thunderstorms that develop
ahead of a front moving southward through northern Nebraska.
This activity is expected to be the strongest to the north and
east of the terminals. Some showers and thunderstorms may impact
the terminals, but confidence in the terminal being hit is low
enough...below 30 percent that have not included a Prob30 at
this time. The timeframe that thunderstorms could impact the
area is between 23Z - 03Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion