Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

826
FXUS63 KOAX 131824
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger this afternoon, mainly west of line
  from Lincoln to Norfolk. Expect southwest winds gusting 20-30
  mph and humidity dropping to 15 to 30 percent.

- An active weather pattern continues with the potential for
  precipitation across portions of the area through Saturday
  morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible, especially Tuesday and Friday.

- Cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s and lows near
  freezing) are currently in the forecast for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Satellite shows high cirrus across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa with surface obs indicating some scattered lower stratus
gradually clearing out today. Winds are gusting 25 to 35 mph
across the area due to a deepening surface low currently sitting
over east-central Nebraska. Despite high clouds winds should
help with mixing allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-to-
upper 80s this afternoon. Humidity will also fall fairly low,
dropping to 15 to 25 percent across much of our area. Recent
green-up as well as weaker winds in the driest areas toward
central Nebraska should keep fire weather conditions from
reaching extreme, but it could be close and will be monitored
this afternoon into the early evening.

The surface low to our west is forecast to track into northeast
Nebraska this evening with a couple CAMs showing a storm
developing in the return flow on the northwest side of the Low
around 7-8pm. Confidence is low that there will be enough
moisture for thunderstorm development, so PoPs in that area this
evening are 20% or less.

The active pattern continues in the southwesterly flow ahead of
a deep trough moving into the Rockies on Tuesday.  Once the
first low exits to the northeast overnight tonight, attention
turns to the next low that develops over eastern Colorado and
moves into north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. This
system tracks a little farther south with the warm front
developing just north of the Kansas-Nebraska state line. As the
surface low deepens and gets closer, we actually see the warm
front sink south a bit to the Nebraska-Kansas state line.
Convective initiation in this area waits until better forcing
arrives with the amplification of the low-level jet around 10pm.
Storms rapidly develop along a line on the northwestern flank
of the LLJ over far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri.
Depending on the exact positioning of the warm front at this
time, we may see these storms lift northeast into southwest Iowa
towards midnight, clearing to the east around 2AM.

Model soundings show these storms clearly elevated in nature
with a strong inversion in place between around 2000-4000ft.
Above this inversion there is ample MUCAPE, around
1200-1400j/kg. Though there is significant low-level shear along
the warm front, because of the elevated instability storms
should be rooted above the better shear leading to lower
potential for any longer-lived supercells. Could see large hail,
perhaps damaging winds, but tornado potential is almost zero due
to the strong surface inversion.

Once storms clear Tuesday night, we await the arrival of the
next surface low associated with the upper-level trough on
Wednesday. This third low will take a nearly identical track to
the Tuesday system, but entrainment of drier air from the
southwest will be our limiting factor for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Showers along the warm front
Tuesday morning will likely lift north Wednesday afternoon as
the Low moves into eastern Nebraska and we see the drier air get
pulled into southeast Nebraska. While showers appear likely
where moisture continues to wrap around the north and east side
of the Low Wednesday afternoon, dry air will lead to lower PoPs
across much of southeast Nebraska. Severe potential seems
minimal with any showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening with any potential generally limited to our southwest
Iowa counties and only for a short window as storms initiate
before they exit to the east.

We get a break from these systems on Thursday as a transient
ridge moves across the region ahead of our next strong upper-
level trough bringing a system through on Friday. Temperatures
on Thursday will warm back up into the low-to-mid 80s under
clearer skies. Thursday night we see strengthening southerly
flow ahead of the approaching system. This system will have a
stronger clash between warmer air getting pulled up north out of
the Gulf, and much cooler air being pulled south out of western
Canada. Timing of the cold front will be paramount in
determining the western extent of potential for severe storms
Friday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, strong warm-air and
moisture advection will lead to warm-humid conditions across
much of our area. Winds could be fairly strong starting around
mid-morning, with gusts 30 to 40 mph very possible. I won`t go
into too much detail on timing of this system due to
uncertainty, but if some deterministic solutions are correct
developing storms ahead of the front during the afternoon into
the evening, we could see a good scenario for supercells with
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Monitor
this time period closely over the next few days for changes.

Cooler air moves in going into the weekend. We could see a few
showers linger into Saturday morning, even some light snow
on the back side of this system. Precip should clear out by the
afternoon with highs warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s,
melting anything that may accumulate. We see a ridge push in on
Sunday bringing temperatures back up toward normal with highs
back in the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday afternoon.

Models start to really diverge in the forecast for the upper-
level pattern over the weekend going into next week. One thing
to watch is that Machine Learning guidance from NSSL utilizing
ensemble data indicates return of potential for severe storms
Monday-Wednesday next week as well with temperatures expected to
rebound back up into the mid 70s to low 80s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Scattered to broken low clouds around 1500-2500 ft this morning
has mostly cleared out from the terminal areas with high cirrus
still in place across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Southerly winds gust 25 to 30kt this afternoon, weakening toward
the evening. Storm development expected to mainly stay south and
east of the terminals this evening starting around 03Z in far
southeast Nebraska and moving into northwest Missouri or far
southwest Iowa. Low potential (15-20% chance) for a few showers
Tuesday morning impacting KOMA and KOFK, but any lower cigs with
showers should stay above 4000 ft. Expect VFR conditions to
hold through the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to the
north overnight at the terminals turning more northeasterly
after daybreak at KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

764
FXUS63 KGID 131810
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather is a primary hazard to focus on this afternoon,
  and potentially tomorrow in north central Kansas. Thursday
  will also be warm, dry, and windy, and could be another day
  for fire concerns.

- There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening
  (20-50% with best chances far southeast and far northwest),
  but it currently looks more likely that most of the area
  remains dry, and any precipitation will likely be less than a
  tenth of an inch.

- The next strong storm system arrives late Friday into early
  Saturday. Expect thunderstorms on the leading edge of this
  storm with snow on the back side of the storm. The current
  most likely storm track suggests the best chance for
  thunderstorms is east of HWY 281, and the greatest chance for
  rain changing to snow is north of the Platte River.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found
in the Fire section below.

Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will
gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this
afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this
afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end
potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound
moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely
should stay precipitation free, but there`s about a 10% chance
for development in far northern counties of the forecast area
around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north.

As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves
off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south
into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure
develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the
vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on
Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on
the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm
and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to
develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap
in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a
bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for
increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to
provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but
would require significant moisture transport and pooling through
a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now,
forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm
development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance
with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a
short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there
is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop
and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that
precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few
wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how
quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system
does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north
central KS.

After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good
model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system
tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday.
This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic
spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the
northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe
storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the
storm system, and current indications suggest a higher
likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so
we`ll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull
better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also
be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the
greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast
area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong
winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it
could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into
Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of
slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at
least into the first couple days of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

TAFs are primarily focused on timing of wind shifts and gusts
this afternoon and also early Tuesday. There is some indication
that low ceilings or even fog could develop into GRI or perhaps
even EAR between 10Z-13Z, but at this time it appears more
likely to remain VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Today:
Low pressure moving from near Kearney to near Columbus this
afternoon will pull a narrow sector of warm and very dry air
across the forecast area today. As temperatures warm, wind
speeds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph, and
some potential for a few gusts to 30 mph. Also expect the wind
direction to gradually become more westerly as the afternoon
progresses...no sharp wind shifts are expected but more of a
gradual change. Near sunset, the wind gusts should come to an
end with RH slowly recovering into the evening. Overnight, winds
will turn out of the northeast in most Nebraska counties as a
front slowly drifts southward, but should remain mainly out of
the south in Kansas counties. RH will also increase with RH
above 80% north of the front overnight into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday:
For much of the day on Tuesday, a front will extend from near
Norton to near Hebron, give or take 30 miles or so. North of
that front, winds will be out of the northeast and gusty at
times, with RH starting the day around 90% and reaching an
afternoon minimum around 40%. South of the front, the airmass
will be much drier with southwest or westerly winds. MinRH in
these areas will be in the 12-16% range, and while winds may
gust 20-25 mph, there is some uncertainty in just how strong the
winds will be, and whether or not they will reach Red Flag
criteria. At this time, with less confidence in the afternoon
wind speeds, will maintain the fire weather watch for KS
counties as it stands, with intent to make a warn/no-warn
decision late this evening or early Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:
Thursday looks like the best chance for warm, dry, and windy
conditions possibly leading to another Red Flag setup. Friday
could also feature a dryline scenario with very low afternoon RH
in parts of the area, especially southwest, and followed by a
cold frontal passage and a wind shift out of the northwest. The
best chance for meaningful precipitation appears to arrive late
Friday, although far from a guarantee of widespread wetting
rain.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch (OAX)
AVIATION...Barjenbruch (OAX)
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch (OAX)

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion