Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

432
FXUS63 KOAX 190532
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with
  temperatures near freezing in parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to
  extreme fire danger again for Monday and Wednesday.

- The next good chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives during
  the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The broad upper-level trough that has been responsible for
active weather across the United States will finally begin to
move into the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. In it`s wake, an upper-
level ridge will gradually build into the Great Plains through early
next week. A warming trend begins on Sunday as this occurs. It
will start cold on Sunday with near freezing temperatures across
most of the area. By afternoon, temperatures rebound into the
60s for much of the area. A weak disturbance will also pass
north of the area, increasing north winds. This disturbance
does little to impede the warming trend. Temperatures start in
the 30s on Monday before quickly climbing through the 70s during
the afternoon. Increasing southerly winds will help achieve
this, but with dry conditions in place, very high fire danger is
expected to occur. Temperatures climb further still on Tuesday
as 80s return to the forecast. Surface high pressure near the
area should help keep winds light, limiting fire danger. By
Wednesday lee troughing ramps up as our next upper-level trough
begins to approach the Great Plains. Increasing southerly winds
through the afternoon and strong winds by evening ahead of any
meaningful moisture return will likely cause another day of very
high to perhaps extreme fire danger.

Thursday onward sees the beginnings of a pattern shift for the
region. The aforementioned next trough is currently forecast to
eject into the northern Great Plains on Thursday. There remains
some model uncertainty on the exact placement and strength of
this feature, but a general agreement is beginning to develop.
In this event, an area of low pressure is likely to develop and
lift north towards Manitoba by Thursday evening, a cold front
will extend south of the low. It appears likely that the cold
front will be near our area by Thursday evening. Along and ahead
of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected. With
it being mid-April, severe weather with any thunderstorms is at
least a consideration, though those details remain unclear. In
any case, this front is anticipated to move through the region
Thursday night into Friday. Cooler temperatures are likely in
the wake of this front. There may be lingering precipitation
potential also. As this trough continues east by next weekend,
a return to warmer and drier weather is probable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions persist at the terminals through the forecast
period. High pressure moves into the region overnight, with
winds remaining light. Expect winds to shift to the northwest
after sunrise Sunday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

945
FXUS63 KGID 190717
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 60s and 70s and light winds.


- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible Monday.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid week with highs
  in the upper 70s to low 90s.

- Next chance for precipitation (15-35%) arrives Wednesday
  night/Thursday but the best chances look to be north/east of
  the area. &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Clear skies and light winds have resulted in temperatures falling
into the 20s and 30s this morning, coldest across northwestern
portions of the area. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the
mid 20s in the northwest to just above freezing in the southeast.
Aloft, a ridge currently sits over West Coast, with a trough
centered over the Midwest, placing the area under northwesterly
flow. A very pleasant day is expected under this northwesterly flow.
Highs will be in the 60s and 70s under mostly sunny skies and light
winds.

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Monday ahead of an
embedded shortwave trough. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s
with mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds gusting 20-25mph combined
with low afternoon relative humidity will result in near-critical
fire weather conditions across the area. If winds trend higher than
the current forecast, fire weather headlines may be needed.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Warm and breezy conditions
continue through the middle of the week. Highs will generally be in
the upper 70s to low 90s. Wednesday looks to be the windiest day of
the forecast period with southerly winds gusting over 40mph
possible. The next chance for rain arrives Wednesday night-Thursday,
and continue into the weekend. Ensembles continue to indicate that
the best chances for precipitation will be north/east of the
forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026


The gusty northwest winds, dragging in a cooler airmass today, have
helped keep highs from escaping out of the upper 50s to low 60s. As
result of the gusty conditions with dry relative humidity, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect until 8PM tonight. Please refer to
the fire weather section below for more more information.

Winds this evening and tonight will become light. The calm
conditions will once again allow temperatures to drop down near to
just under freezing (Overnight Lows: upper 20s to low 30s). The
coldest temperatures overall will be concentrated towards the
northwest portions of the area. Locations near and mainly west of
HWY-281 will have the best potential for temperatures to drop below
freezing for a few hours tonight (1-6 hours). Given the slightly
warmer temperatures compared the the night previous and given the
short residence time of the freezing temperatures, a freeze warning
was not concentrated at this time. Though the very light winds could
break way for a few areas of frost formation (best chances northeast
of the Tri-Cities), the lowered RH values overnight (40-65% max) is
expected to limit the overall coverage of frost.

The exit of a upper-level Central to North Central Plains trough
with an upstream building ridge west of the area, will establish
northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week.
Temperatures will be on the up and up through Tuesday with highs in
the mid 60s and 70s Sunday, upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and the mid-
to-upper 80s Tuesday.

Light easterly winds will setup Sunday among a weak surface pressure
gradient. Pressure falls to the west with rising pressure to the
east on Monday will help sandwich in southerly winds. The next
chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the broad
ridging pattern transitions over to a slow approaching trough.
Though 20-35% PoPs return Wednesday night, the slightly better
chances for the week (25-45%) lie Thursday. It is advised not to
raise one`s hopes quiet yet on meaningful precipitation
accumulations as early on QPF forecast keep the area mainly under
0.25" of precipitation (several completely dry areas towards the south
and west). The best potential will be concentrated to the north and
east.

Besides the weak precipitation chances, stronger and gustier winds
look to return to the area Wednesday through Friday afternoon. These
stronger winds will likely come as a surface cyclone sweeps through
the Northern Plains. Temperatures behind a cold front Thursday will
look to knock highs out of the upper 70s and 80s for Friday (upper
50s to mid 60s). Drier conditions with periods of gusty winds will
keep fire weather concerns in and around the area next week. For
more information regarding the fire weather potential, please refer
to the fire weather section below.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable
winds are forecast through the mid morning hours, though winds
will be largely southwesterly. After noon, winds shift to the
northeast and increase to around 8-10kts. Around sunset, winds
shift to the southeast sustained around 10kts. Mostly clear
skies expected with a few high clouds possible Sunday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026


Gusty northwest winds today blowing between 15-25MPH and gusting up
to 35MPH will continue through the afternoon to early evening hours.
The strongest winds today have set up along/north of Interstate 80.
Despite highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s, dewpoints in the
single digits and teens have resulted in relative humidity values as
low as 12-22%. As result of the dry conditions and gusty winds,
critical fire weather conditions have set up across the entire area.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the full area until 8PM.
While winds drop off after sunset due to a loss of atmospheric
mixing, relative humidity values will be slower to improve,
remaining below 40-65% overnight.

Fire weather concerns will be limited Sunday as lighter winds will
generally gust below 20mph. Relative humidity values of 10-20% are
possible along and southwest of the Tri-Cities during the afternoon.
Near-critical conditions will potentially develop across portions of
Phillips/Smith/Rooks/Osborne counties where gusts of up to 20-25mph
can`t be ruled out.

Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible across at
least a portion of the area Monday-Friday due to the overlap of low
humidity (10-20% and breezy winds (gusts at least 20-30mph). The
strongest winds and likely worst fire weather conditions for the
week should occur Wednesday-Friday. The main forecast feature that
will determine the fire weather potential each day will be where the
driest conditions set up each afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis
FIRE WEATHER...

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion