Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

697
FXUS63 KOAX 171054
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
454 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly cold conditions continue today and tomorrow, with
  morning wind chills 10 to 20 degrees below zero and highs in
  the teens today. Wind chills Sunday morning will be in the
  negative single digits.

- Sunday will be windy, with strong northwesterly wind gusts of
  40-50+ mph and spotty snow showers (15-30% chance) that could
  briefly reduce visibility.

- Another surge of arctic air arrives late Sunday into Monday,
  bringing a return to subzero wind chill temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this morning depicts an
amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the central Plains and
Upper Midwest. This feature has enhanced CAA across the region,
ushering in a frigid arctic airmass accompanied by gusty winds.
Morning low temperatures have dropped into the single digits, while
wind gusts of 25-35 mph are producing wind chills in the 10 to 20
degrees below zero range, with the coldest values focused across
northeast Nebraska. A Cold Weather Advisory was considered for
portions of northeast Nebraska, however, wind chills approaching 20
below zero are expected to be brief and localized, so an advisory
was not issued. Regardless, conditions will remain bitterly cold
across the area. In addition, a few flurries will continue to be
possible across far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa through the
morning as cyclonic flow persists overhead.

High temperatures will struggle to recover today, with readings only
reaching the teens. Gusty winds will keep wind chills confined to
the single digits for much of the day, maintaining uncomfortable
conditions. Winds will gradually diminish during the latter half of
the day as a narrow corridor of surface high pressure moves into the
region.

Sunday is shaping up to be a more variable and interesting day.
Overnight lows will once again fall into the positive single digits,
with early morning wind chills dipping into the single digits below
zero. Around daybreak, a warm front will move eastward across the
area ahead of a potent shortwave trough tracking across the northern
Plains. This will cause winds to veer to westerly and eventually
northwesterly behind the boundary. In the wake of the warm front,
temperatures will briefly rebound into the 30s to low 40s with
increasing winds.

Winds will continue to strengthen through Sunday afternoon, with
gusty northwesterly winds becoming the primary concern. Both HREF
and NBM guidance indicate a 50-75% probability of wind gusts
exceeding 45 mph across portions of the area, with some solutions
suggesting potential gusts of 50-55+ mph across northeast Nebraska.
With this in mind, have opted to bump up winds for Sunday in the
latest forecast package. A Wind Advisory will likely need to be
collaborated with the subsequent forecast package. Later Sunday
afternoon/evening, another cold front will sweep through the
area, ushering in renewed CAA and another surge of arctic air.
This will bring a quick end to the brief period of milder
temperatures and set the stage for a return to much colder
conditions. The overall pattern will be similar to Friday, with
model soundings depicting steep lapse rates in the dendritic
growth zone supporting shallow, spotty snow showers. While
little to no accumulation is expected for most, any show showers
that develop could produce brief, sharp reductions in
visibility when combined with the strong winds. PoPs currently
peak at 15-30% Sunday afternoon. Given the low QPF and spotty
nature of this setup, refinements will be needed in subsequent
forecast packages.

Monday and Beyond...

The cooler post-frontal airmass will be firmly in place by Monday
morning, with low temperatures falling back into the single digits.
Combined with lingering gusty winds, wind chills will dip into the 5
to 15 degrees below zero range. Ongoing CAA will limit daytime
heating, keeping Monday afternoon highs confined into the teens and
20s.

For the remainder of the work week, temperatures are expected to
gradually moderate back toward seasonal average. Highs will
generally range from the 30s into the lower 40s as northwesterly
flow aloft remains the dominant pattern. While no particular day
stands out for impactful precipitation, long-range guidance does
periodically suggest shortwave disturbances tracking near the area.
However, there is considerable spread among long range guidance with
respect to both timing and track of any notable disturbances. As a
result, PoPs remain below 20% through the period, though a brief
chance of precipitation cannot be ruled out if guidance comes into
better agreement in later forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A few patchy areas of flurries/light snow continue this morning
along with spotty MVFR ceilings. The highest confidence in
seeing a few snowflakes are brief MVFR conditions is at KOFK
and KOMA through 15Z before improving to VFR conditions through
the remainder of the forecast period. Ceilings will gradually
break up and improve through the afternoon. Northwesterly winds
will continue gusting up to 30 kts before calming under 12 kts
by 18/00-02Z, gradually backing to southwesterly tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

954
FXUS63 KGID 171137
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow bands continue though the mid-morning hours.
  Brief reductions in visibility (2-3 miles) possible.

- Wind chill values in of -10 to -20 degrees this morning across south
  central Nebraska.

- Northwest winds gusting 35-50mph on Sunday across south
  central Nebraska.

- Roller coaster temperatures next week, with highs ranging from
  the 20s/30s to the 40s/50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Scattered bands of snow are ongoing across the area early this
morning. Some visibility reductions (2-3 miles) are possible in
these bands, but the duration  is fairly short (5-10 mins). These
bands will likely persist through the mid-morning hours. Wind
chill values are expected to fall below zero by sunrise, with
the coldest values (-15 to -20 degrees) north of Highway 92.

Temperatures today will be seasonably cold, with highs in the teens
to low 20s. Northwest strengthen after sunrise, gusting 25-35mph,
but decrease during the afternoon as a high pressure system moves
into the area. Wind chill values this afternoon are expected to only
reach the single digits above/below zero. Lows tonight will be in
the single digits to low 10s.

The next system moves into the area on Sunday. Another round of
gusty/strong northwest winds are expected on Sunday, gusting 35-
50mph. The strongest winds will be along/northeast of the Tri-
Cities, though at this time it looks to remain below High Wind
criteria. Highs climb into the upper 30s to upper 40s in the warm
sector of the clipper system. A cold front pushes into the area
Sunday afternoon, with snow showers possible behind the front. At
this time, confidence in timing or location is too low to introduce
formal PoPs at this time, but PoPs may be needed in the future.

Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track, as roller coaster
temperatures continue through the rest of the forecast period with
highs ranging from the 20s/30s to the 40s/50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over the northern Plains and upper
Midwest and extends over Nebraska and Kansas. Temperatures are
currently mostly in the 30s across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Gusty, northwest winds are
present and are generally around 20 to 35 mph sustained with gusts
up to 50 to 55 mph. A High Wind Warning continues for most areas
along and west of Highway 281 until 6 PM this evening. Winds will
decrease some this evening and tonight but will still be around 15
to 25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. Upper lift associated
with the upper trough is over the region and is aiding in producing
snow showers. While total snow accumulations are expected to be
light (a trace to around 0.5 to 1 inch), the wind combined with the
snow is the greatest threat today. There is a fairly high chance
(around 70%) of snow squalls developing and moving across portions
of the forecast area today. These can be fairly isolated and develop
quickly with blowing snow reducing visibilities down to 1/4 mile or
less. The snow squall threat will decrease this evening as the winds
decrease. The snow is expected to continue through the afternoon
hours with some models showing it continuing through much of the
evening and overnight hours. Temperatures tonight are expected to
plummet to the low single digits to the teens. The wind combined
with these temperatures will produce wind chills of around -1 to -20
degrees. Areas in and around Ord, NE will be the most likely to
experience wind chills around -20 degrees.

Saturday through Saturday night...

Northwest to north winds will continue across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday but will not
be as strong as today. Winds of around 15 to 25 mph sustained with
gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are expected. A surface high will dominate
the northern and central Plains. High temperatures across the area
are only expected to be in the teens and 20s but wind chill
temperatures will generally range from the positive single digits to
negative single digits during the afternoon. Winds will become
southwesterly to westerly Saturday night (around 10 mph with gusts
up to 15 to 25 mph) with temperatures mostly dropping into the
single digits. This will result in wind chills dropping to around 0
to around -8 degrees.

Sunday through Monday night...

A broad, upper trough will be over most of the country on Sunday.
Winds will become gusty out of the northwest across the forecast
area on Sunday as another cold front moves into the area. There is
some uncertainty in regards to high temperatures on Sunday due to
the timing of the front. Right now highs are expected to mostly be
in the 40s but some places across the north may not get out of the
30s. A surface high will be across the area Sunday night with
northerly winds and temperatures dropping into the single digits to
mid teens. Wind chills will generally range from the positive single
digits to around -10 degrees. Winds will remain out of the northwest
on Monday with high temperatures only in the 20s and 30s. Low
temperatures Monday night will be in the positive single digits and
teens.

Tuesday through Thursday...

A surface trough will develop across western Nebraska and western
Kansas on Tuesday with winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Nebraska out of the southwest to west.
This will contribute to temperatures warming up into the 40s and
50s. Another cold front is expected to push into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Although there is some uncertainty with high
temperatures Wednesday, at this time expecting highs to be in the
30s and 40s. There is potential for high temperatures to be a little
colder on Thursday despite winds becoming southerly during the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period. There remains a low
(20-30%) chance for briefly MVFR ceilings through the morning
hours, but timing or duration is too low to include a TEMPO
mention at this time.

Northwest winds sustained around 20kts and gusts around 30kts
are expected through the morning hours. Winds steadily decrease
during the afternoon, with gusts falling below 20kts by the late
afternoon. Around sunset, winds become light and variable as
they shift to the southwest. After midnight on Sunday, winds
increase with LLWS developing late in the TAF period as a front
moves overhead.

Skies become clear this afternoon. Mid- high level clouds build
back over the area Saturday night- Sunday morning.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion