Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

349
FXUS63 KOAX 071619
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with
  highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms Wednesday through
  Friday. Main hazards with any strong-severe storms will be
  damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

- A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Another quiet day today with mostly clear skies and light winds
generally out of the south. High pressure remains over the
region for one more day before a jet streak pushing east out of
California breaks down the ridge leading to a more active
weather pattern for the rest of the week. Highs today will peak
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices warming into the
low-to-mid 90s.

As the ridge breaks down, we`ll see the return of the low-level
jet, advecting more moisture into the region from the Gulf. At
the same time, we`ll see a shortwave pull the main active
frontal boundary back south to right near the Nebraska-South
Dakota state line. Over the next few days we`ll see shortwaves
interact with this boundary as well as nocturnal activation of
the low-level jet leading to periodic storm chances across our
area.

Wednesday with increasing moisture expect to see increasing
cloud cover, especially through the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures won`t be much warmer than we see today, but
humidity will be about 5 to 10 percent higher, bringing heat
indices up into the mid-to-upper 90s.

The previously mentioned shortwave moving through during the
day tomorrow could activate a few pop-up showers and storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threat with these
storms appears to be damaging winds due to dry air in the lower
levels keeping cloud bases fairly high. Model soundings show a
fairly decent inverted-v signature, indicative of a damaging
wind threat. Still think any severe weather will be fairly
isolated at this time due to weak environmental shear. The
better chance for more widespread storms will be with an MCS
rolling through out of central Nebraska overnight. This MCS
develops from afternoon/evening storms that start out over
eastern Colorado/western Nebraska, coming together and likely
maturing at it`s strongest over central Nebraska. As it moves
into our area, we should see a weakening trend with damaging
winds being the primary threat. This is corroborated by the SPC
Day 2 Convective Outlook showing a level 2 "slight" risk over
central Nebraska transitioning to a level 1 "marginal" risk over
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Thursday`s weather will be highly dependent on what happens with
storms overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, but guidance is
in fairly good agreement with showers lingering across our area
through Thursday morning. Cloud cover likely will keep
temperatures cooler through the afternoon, though highs will
still be in the 80s. Thursday night, we expect another MCS to
roll through, more across far southern portions of our area with
potential for more heavy rain and low threat for damaging
winds. Depending on this system`s track, we could see showers
and storms linger into Friday morning as well, with temperatures
again staying somewhat milder through the afternoon with highs
in the 80s.

Going into the weekend, we see a strong ridge start to build up
over the Rockies signaling a prolonged period of heat on it`s
way. Temperatures will start trending back upward on Saturday
while expanding High Pressure spreads over the Northern Plains
to Great Lakes region. Highs on Saturday will warm back into the
mid 80s to near 90, continuing this trend back into the upper
80s to mid 90s on Sunday. Extended guidance has slowed down the
warming trend, getting us closer to Extreme Heat more likely
toward Monday-Tuesday of next week now. Rain chances are likely
to dry up, so if you haven`t had to use your sprinklers yet this
season, you might want to make sure they`re working here soon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies.
winds staying generally out of the south.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

742
FXUS63 KGID 072018
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Hot Wednesday, thunderstorms are likely by evening (50-80%
  chance). Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind
  and large hail.

- Thursday will be noticably cooler (mainly 80s) with another
  chance for evening/overnight thunderstorms favoring areas
  south of I-80 (marginal risk of severe thunderstorms)

- Overall drier conditions by this weekend into next week and
  heating back up into the 90s by Sunday and at least several
  days thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Summer Heat...

Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday
afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will
bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and
cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in
the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge
(600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over
the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains
early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even
by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the
lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to
see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this
upper ridge patter fully materializes.


Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat...

We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the
upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off
for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our
Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas
counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may
come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main
threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail
threat as well.

There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front
with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and
northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will
probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable
of dumping heavier 1" plus rainfall amounts. There is lower
confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However,
there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of
thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later
Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and
then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This
later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to
our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts
generally less than 1" but more widespread.

The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM
(50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best
chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even
higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday
night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions are forecast throughout this TAF period.
Fair weather cumulus clouds are developing across the area, as
southerly surface winds gust to near 20kts this afternoon. This
evening, winds will back off to around 9-11kts, although some
wind gusts up to 20kts may linger through this evening/tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion