Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

765
FXUS63 KOAX 252345
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
545 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog continues through the night. It is forecast to
  lift Friday morning.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday with record or
  near-record high temperatures possible, before much colder
  temperatures arrive on Sunday and Monday.

- Light snow (30%) and breezy winds (85%) are forecast for
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Dreary Christmas! As anticipated, a low deck of stratus at 300
ft AGL has kept temperatures hovering in the 40s all day long
while neighboring areas unencumbered by the fog and atmospheric
melancholy are setting record high temps. Just west of here,
Imperial and Valentine are currently sitting in the mid-60s. Our
18Z weather balloon observed temps run from lower 40s at the sfc
to 58F at just 4500ft when it cleared the stratus. The SPC`s
sounding climatology page suggests today`s soundings was
rewriting warm records at elevated layers, just not at the
surface.

A wider vantage explains the anomalous heat with pronounced
ridging across the central CONUS with the ridge axis over
western Iowa.

Mid-day observations recorded a slow improvement in visibility,
though ceilings have generally remained low. Expect fog
redevelopment early this evening as warm air continues to try to
build in from the west. Isentropic upglide over the shallow
cool and humid air will produce more fog (especially west).
Guidance shows fog reaching its widest coverage around 10pm
tonight before beginning to back off a bit as moist southerly
winds are replaced by drier westerly winds. Fog should lift from
west to east overnight. Expect to see twinkling holiday stars
by Friday morning... at least in our western counties.

.FRIDAY...

Overall, the pattern won`t have changed all that much, but we`re
expecting less cloud cover and warmer temperatures thanks to the
continued warmer and drier westerly sfc flow. Temps will range
from near 50F (NE CWA) to upper-60s (SW CWA). Records at KOFK,
LNK, and TQE are currently forecast to fall.

Standing records:
55 / 2011 | Norfolk
52 / 2011 | Tekamah
62 / 1936 | Omaha
61 / 2008 | Lincoln
66 / 2008 | Falls City

.THE WEEKEND...

A cutoff low over the Pacific today brings changes to the mid-
Missouri River valley this weekend. The Pacific low opens and
phases with a trof caught up in the polar jet as they cross the
high terrain of the Intermountain West. An attendant cold front
pushes through the forecast area late Saturday, taking
Saturday`s pleasant 50s and dropping them by 15-25 degrees for
Sunday. PoPs of 30% are reasonable as the system won`t have a
lot of moisture to work with. Temps north of I-80 should keep
hydrometeors falling entirely as snow, but temps may be warm
enough for a rain/snow mix over the southern half of the CWA.
This would obviously limit any possible accumulations. Still,
QPF is low enough that even northern locales are unlikely to
see an inch (10-20% NBM). Most snow will fall Sunday morning
with tapering and ending forecast for Sunday afternoon/eve.

.NEXT WEEK...

For those on the hook for returning to the office on Monday,
it`ll be a cold one. Monday`s lows begin near 10F and highs will
fall shy of freezing. But with the trofing responsible for
brisk start to the week pushing east, moderation is on tap with
ridging quick to push temps back above normal by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Widespread LIFR ceilings and visibilities are observed at all
three TAF sites this evening. Ceilings and visibilities should
start to slowly improve from west to east after 02z-03z at KOFK
and KLNK. LIFR visibilities will linger a little longer at KOMA
until 06z. Have added additional mentions of IFR ceilings at
KOMA after 14z as recent model guidance pushes the edge of the
low stratus deck back into the terminal through 18z.

Winds will remain under 12 kts for much of the TAF period,
turning from south southeast to west southwest by mid morning
into the afternoon hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for NEZ015-033-
     034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

570
FXUS63 KGID 252355
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
555 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for a few Nebraska locations
  (mainly counties east of HWY-281) this afternoon until 6PM as
  some lingering pockets of reduced visibilities down to as low
  as 1/4 mile continue.

- The warmest day of the week will likely come Tomorrow (mid 60s
  to low 70s) with a cold front tanking highs between Saturday
  and Sunday (from the upper 50s and 60s to the mid 20s to lower
  40s).

- Temperatures FRI/SAT will near record territory. Please refer
  to the climate section for more.

- A 20-30% chance for flurries to light snow (accumulations up
  to a few tenths) resides Saturday night to Sunday morning for
  mainly northwestern lying locations.

- Temperatures Monday (upper 20s to mid 30s) will be followed by a
  subtle warmup TUE/WED (40s to low 50s).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 8PM for a handful of the
counties along the Highway 14 and 81 corridors, as area
obs/webcams show the lower visibilities still around. More
westerly winds developing is expected to help in improving
visibilities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025


The lingering fog has been slow to retreat this afternoon,
especially for areas near and east of HWY-281. The continuation of
some pockets of fog with visibilities down to as low as 1/4 mile has
provoked the need for an additional Dense Fog Advisory this
afternoon/evening. The Dense Fog advisory remain in effect until 6PM
tonight for Nebraska counties along and east of HWY-281 and along
and south of I-80 including Merrick and Polk counties. The low-level
stratus continues to hang the surface, only gradually rising/mixing
out. As result, highs today have not been able to punch up much
further than the 40s to low 50s. Lows tonight will be expected to
settle in the 30s.

A weak shortwave trough aloft grazing the Central/Northern Plains
tonight will help clear out some of the clouds for tomorrow (at
least for the first half of the day). At the surface, a weak low
(~1004mb) is in the process of crossing through the region. This
feature will help guide steady (5-15 MPH) westerly to northwesterly
oriented winds tonight and for the first half of Friday as it
departs over to the east. The gentle westerly downsloping flow
Friday (adiabatic warming) paired with clearing skies will make for
the perfect ingredients needed to warm temperatures near and
potentially into record territory. Highs Friday are forecast to
reach the 60s to potentially low 70s across a few KS locations.
These are the warmest temperatures the area will likely see for a
while.

Another maturing surface low coming down from the Rockies Friday
night into Saturday will later be responsible for an end of the week
cold front that will be ready to shake things up for the start of
next week. Before then, the steady westerly winds on Friday will
turn southerly as the low approaches. Highs for Saturday (upper 50s
to upper 60s) will become the last of the consecutive days with
anomalously warm temperatures. The strong and powering cold front,
mention earlier, is now expected to barrel through during the
afternoon/evening hours on Saturday, flipping winds to the north along
behind it.

Conditions from Saturday to Sunday will change notably behind the
front. Temperatures, influenced by the rush of cold air, will drop
around 25-35 degrees. Highs for Sunday are forecast to range the mid
20s (far northern areas) to the low 40s (far southern areas). In
addition to the cold, breezy winds out of the north will blow
between 20-30MPH with gusts as high as 35-40+ MPH during the
afternoon hours. Lows sunday night will move towards the the mid
single digits to low teens (wind chills between -10 and 5 degrees).

Though not quite yet a complete guarantee (20-30% chance), flurries to
a few tenths of an inch of light snow accumulations could fall
Saturday night to Sunday morning in a couple of places behind the
front (mainly across northwestern lying areas). Confidence remains
more wishy-washy than definite at this point in time. Synoptically
speaking, a compressed and negatively tilted trough aloft looks to
have the potential to provide at least some synoptic-level assent
(relatively strong vorticity advection near the base of a PV
anomaly) to give enough support to churn out some flurries to light
snow showers. These snow showers would likely originate across the
Nebraska Panhandle and Northern Nebraska, tracking southeast through
the night/morning. The main question still to be answered is if such
showers will either maintain or miss the area altogether.

The forecast for next week beyond Sunday, continues to remain fairy
dry as the area will likely sit underneath the eastern side
(northwest flow region) of a slow moving longwave ridge. The
"biggest" change overall in the long-range forecast has been the
narrowing confidence for yet a colder day Monday (upper 20s to mid
30s). Temperatures also now appear to rebound a few degrees heading
into the middle of next week (mainly the 40s TUE/WED) with winds
oscillating from the west to north at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings and reduced visibilities look to stick around for
another couple of hours here at the start of this TAF period,
affecting KGRI more than KEAR. Still expecting more westerly
winds to develop, helping improve conditions by mid-late
evening. Once things improve, models are in good agreement
showing VFR conditions through the end of the period. As the
westerly winds settle in, expecting little change in winds
through at least the first half of the day Friday, with speeds
around 10 MPH. For the mid-late afternoon hours, winds look to
turn more southwesterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 457 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL DEC 24-27:
As our overall-very-mild stretch of late-December continues
through Saturday, a few daily records for warmth (both daytime
highs and overnight lows) will likely end up being broken, with
Friday (Dec. 26) featuring the best potential for setting new
record daytime highs.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values)
stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings
airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue
official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that
* indicates that our latest forecast/observed value would tie or
  break an existing daily record:


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES             | Latest Forecast
                                         or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922      | Observed: 45
December 26: 64 in 2005                | Forecast: 68*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 61

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 25: 62 in 1999,1950           | Observed: 44
December 26: 65 in 2005                | Forecast: 68*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 62

_________________________________________________________

- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast
                                         or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 25: 34 in 1959                | Observed: 29
December 26: 38 in 1931                | Forecast: 38*
December 27: 34 in 1905                | Forecast: 38*

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 25: 34 in 1922                | Observed: 26
December 26: 38 in 1959                | Forecast: 39*
December 27: 37 in 1957                | Forecast: 38*

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for NEZ048-049-
     063-064-076-077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP/Stump
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion