Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

411
FXUS63 KOAX 061721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing clouds today with gusty southwesterly winds. Highs
  warm to the low to mid 60s.

- Breezy northwesterly winds anticipated again Friday morning
  and afternoon with similar highs as today.

- Rain chances return Saturday morning and afternoon (30-50% chance).
  A few areas in far northeast Nebraska and west central Iowa
  could see rain mix with snow. Lows in the teens and 20s are
  expected Sunday and Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

08z RAP objective analysis shows yesterday`s sfc high which brought
tranquil weather now centered over eastern Iowa into Illinois. Winds
remain light and from the southeast now that OAX is behind the main
sfc high, and temperatures are in the mid 30s to near 40F. Looking
aloft, H5 pattern shows weak ridging over the eastern Dakotas and
eastern Nebraska. Several shortwaves are also seen just behind the
ridge axis helping induce a sfc low over western SD, while mid level
lift has resulted in some cloudiness. Warm air advection is ongoing
from H7 to H8 with the baroclinic zone extending from near eastern
Montana southeast into central SD and Nebraska.

The shortwave disturbances and associated sfc low will track east
throughout the day today. Expect to see cloud cover increase in
coverage with highs in the low to mid 60s. Daytime cloud cover may
hamper how much momentum we can mix down from a rather strong H8 40-
50 kt LLJ, but with a tightening pressure gradient, gusty south
southwesterly winds are still anticipated. Have collaborated with
neighboring WFOs to increase winds slightly from NBM guidance this
afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are most probable across far
northeast Nebraska, with an isolated 40 mph gust not out of the
question either. CAM guidance still shows widely scattered showers
in the warm sector, but dry air in the low levels should make it
hard for anything to reach the sfc.

The sfc cold front pushes through this evening, switching winds to
the northwest. Strong wind gusts will also subside behind the front.
Lows tonight cool to the low 40s under partly cloudy skies.

Northwest winds once again become breezy Friday morning into the
early afternoon hours, primarily across northeast Nebraska as
another push of H8 cold air advection helps provide subsidence near
a 30-35 kt LLJ. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Winds subside
again in the evening while lows cool to the mid 30s to near 40F
along and south of Interstate 80.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Early Saturday morning will see a potent H5 shortwave trof eject
southeast from Saskatchewan into the western Dakotas. A secondary
shortwave is also observed farther to the southeast in far eastern
Wyoming. These features will induce sfc lows, tracking east
southeast through the Dakotas into Nebraska and Iowa. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance is in good agreement that precip will develop
with the features, likely in the deformation zone while siphoning
off any available Pacific moisture. Strong H8 cold air advection
pushes south too by midday Saturday, which will influence the p-type.

Latest BUFKIT forecast soundings suggest a saturated, nearly
isothermal layer from H9 to H8 hovering at or slightly above 0C in
the late morning and afternoon hours, primarily across northeast
Nebraska into western Iowa. Thus, could see rain eventually change
to a rain/snow mix in those areas, but this will largely be
dependent on how fast south the H8 cold air advection can push out
the lingering warm layer/air (latest NBM has highs in the 40s across
these areas, with much warmer sfc temps south of Interstate 80).
Forecast soundings and cross-sectional cuts show the rest of the
area having a deep enough warm layer to suggest rain.

For now, have kept latest NBM solution which has PoPs peaking to 30
to 50% across northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa by 12z and
tapering off by Saturday afternoon (20-30% lingering PoPs) when
the rain/snow mix could occur in far west central Iowa. LREF
guidance still suggests anywhere from 65 to 90% of members
having no accumulations with this system. It is worth nothing
that a few deterministic members suggest lingering light precip
in the late evening across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. If
this does pan out, temperatures will likely be cold enough for
snow. NBM currently has dry conditions for late Saturday into
Sunday.

Expect strong north northwest winds Saturday, with most seeing 15 to
25 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 35 mph. Some ensembles such
as the EPS suggest a few gusts up to 45 mph at times during the day.
Areas that receive little to no precip may be susceptible to fire
danger.

Chilly temperatures are expected Saturday night through early Monday
morning. Lows on Sunday morning will be in the mid teens to upper
20s, while widespread mid to upper teens Sunday night into Monday
morning are anticipated. Lingering breeziness from winds will result
in frigid single digit to low teen wind chills Sunday morning and
again Monday morning. Highs Sunday only warm to the mid 30s to near
40F.

The good news is that the chilly temperatures are short lived as
1000-500mb thicknesses rise across the Central and Northern Plains.
Most see highs return to the low to mid 60s by Tuesday. Dry
conditions are also anticipated for the rest of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Breezy south
winds this afternoon are expected to gradually weaken and
become more westerly by evening. A passing low pressure system
to the north of the region pushes a cold front tonight. Northwesterly
winds are to be expected behind this front. There is the
potential for low-level wind shear at OFK and OMA due to much
stronger winds just above the surface through the morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

175
FXUS63 KGID 061141
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
541 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild (60s) and breezy afternoon (SSW Winds 15-25 MPH) is in
  store for the local area with lots of high level clouds.

- Windy (Gusts to 45 MPH) and cooler for Saturday (50s), with
  potentially elevated fire weather concerns.

- The official forecast remains dry through day 7, but a cold
  front could bring some sprinkles/very light rain Saturday AM,
  especially NE of the Tri-Cities, with below normal
  temperatures anticipated to finish out the weekend.

- A rapid rebound in temperatures is anticipated next Monday,
  with above normal temperatures (60s to near 70) expected
  Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Lots of high clouds can be seen spilling across the local area
early this morning as an upper level disturbance crossing the
Rockies approaches the local area. Ahead of this disturbance,
the pressure gradient has been tightening up overnight, with
southerly winds gusting to near 20 mph already being observed
in spots across the local area.

As we transition into the morning hours, expect winds to
increase further across the area, with a breezy and variably
cloudy afternoon in store for the local area. Late in the day,
the pressure gradient should relax from west to east ahead of an
approaching cold front, which is anticipated to cross the local
area this evening/overnight. While no precipitation or
noticably cooler temperatures are anticipated with this front,
we should see a wind shift, with northwesterly winds expected
across the area Friday.

A second stronger cold front will follow in northwest flow early
Saturday morning, with very strong northwesterly winds
anticipated in its wake during the daytime hours Saturday. Kept
the strong winds worded in the HWO, with gusts to near 45 MPH
continuing to look in line with latest model data. While
overall, this too looks like a dry front for the vast majority
of the local area, there will likely be some showers during the
morning hours Saturday across northeastern Nebraska, with a few
sprinkles maybe even possible across northeastern portions of
our area. Again, this does not look like much of a precipitation
maker locally, with most of ensemble members remaining dry, and
only trace amounts of precip, at best, expected locally.

In addition to the winds on Saturday, could see some elevated
fire weather concerns as minimum RH values fall below 30
percent, especially across areas west of Highway 281, and
continued to advertise this both in the HWO and fire weather
forecast this morning.

Behind the cold front on Saturday, noticably cooler temperatures
are anticipated to finish out the weekend, with some locations
possibly not climbing out of the 30s Sunday afternoon. This dip
in temperatures will be brief, however, as high pressure to our
west will shift eastward to start next week, allowing
temperatures to rapidly climb back above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with
lots of high level clouds anticipated to pass across the area
through the late afternoon hours.

Expect southerly winds to remain steady near 12 KTS through
around 15Z..rapidly increasing after thereafter as the surface
pressure gradient increases across the region ahead of the next
disturbance. Winds will likely gust to near 25KTS at both
terminals during the afternoon hours, diminishing from west to
east as they become more westerly ahead of a weak cold front
late in the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion