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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


000
FXUS63 KOAX 201056
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
556 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

A low amplitude ridge of high pressure was over the Southwest and
a negatively tilted shortwave trough was over MN. This leaves our
region pinned between the two, under relatively dry northwest
flow aloft. Skies were clear this morning and winds were light.
No significant weather is anticipated over the next 48-72 hours,
with mostly clear skies, light winds and near average temperatures
continuing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

The ridge over the Southwest should remain the dominate weather
feature over the western two thirds of the CONUS over the next
week. With little appreciable change in the strength/location of
the ridge, keeping our region under northeast to easterly flow.
Any precipitation chances will depend on individual shortwaves
propagating along with the prevailing flow. Pinning down the
timing of any individual shortwave is iffy, but there is some
potential for precipitation in the Sunday night-Monday timeframe.
Temperatures should remain agreeable for this time of year, with
afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Saturday morning. Light
north winds between 14Z today and 03Z Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM...Albright
AVIATION...Albright

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


000
FXUS63 KGID 201151
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
651 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

The upper level pattern is a rather typical northwesterly flow
regime over the northern and central plains with an upper level
ridge from Texas into the desert southwest. This will keep the
bulk of the extreme summer heat well to our south over Oklahoma
and Texas with generally below normal temperatures for our area
not only today but likely throughout the upcoming week.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are low at best with only subtle
forcing mechanisms within the northwesterly upper level flow
pattern. The 06Z NAM NEST is the most aggressive with
shower/thunderstorm development early this afternoon, but this
model often tends to be one of the more aggressive models when it
comes to convection. Many of the other forecast models are dry.
Have a feeling that most areas will be dry today, but like
yesterday we can not rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms
primarily during the afternoon hours. Any convection should
quickly weaken with the loss of diurnal heating as we near sunset.
The SPC has the southwestern half of our forecast area under a
marginal severe weather risk, which given instability and shear is
feasible if we do get enough forcing for convection.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

The upper level pattern will continue to feature a ridge across
the southwestern United States and a trough over the eastern
United States with our area under a continued northwesterly flow
regime. This will keep our area cooler than average with highs
generally in the lower to mid 80s across south central Nebraska
and mid to upper 80s over north central Kansas. Normal highs for
this time of year are in the upper 80s over southern Nebraska to
the lower 90s over northern Kansas. We should see several chances
for precipitation with the jet stream dipping south into our
forecast area and weak short waves passing through within the
northwesterly flow pattern. At this point, Sunday night and
Tuesday night seem like the better chances for catching some rain
based on the timing of shortwaves passing through, but confidence
in timing such weak waves in this patter is fairly low. On the
other hand, confidence in below normal temperatures through this
period is rather high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

VFR conditions should continue throughout the TAF valid period.
The wind early this morning will be calm to very light and
variable but should generally be out of the east or northeast as
we get into the late morning and afternoon hours. There could be
a few very isolated thunderstorms around the area this afternoon,
but too small of a chance to include in the TAF for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion