Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

786
FXUS63 KOAX 171101
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
601 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, with morning southerly
  winds shifting to northwesterly as a cold front pushes
  through. Winds gusts may reach 40-50 mph, with a wind advisory
  in place for portions of northeast Nebraska.

- Very high fire danger will exist across northeast Nebraska on
  Wednesday as warm, dry and windy conditions prevail.

- Widespread precipitation chances return on Saturday, with a
  few strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A developing trough will dig into the northern Plains towards
the Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday. Ahead of this
feature, strong cyclogenesis is taking shape over the Dakotas
before shifting southeast into Nebraska. Ahead of this, a strong
low-level jet brings gusty southerly winds to the area with the
strongest gusts over southeast Nebraska. A wind advisory is in
effect through the morning hours for this region. On the nose of
the low-level jet, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.
The current expectation is that most of the showers and
thunderstorms will remain focused over South Dakota and west-
central Iowa. That said, a glancing shower or thunderstorm can`t
be ruled out for our areas along and east of the Missouri River.
Temperatures remain mild through the morning with the strong
southerly winds keeping temperatures in the 60s to near 70.

A potent mid-level jet streak will begin to rapidly strengthen
and push the low pressure off to the east during the morning
hours. This will act to quickly push a strong cold front through
the region. Hot, dry, and windy conditions fill in behind the
cold front by Wednesday afternoon. Widespread gusty northwest
winds are anticipated with 40-50 mph gusts likely. The
strongest winds should be focused over northeast Nebraska where
a wind advisory is in effect through the afternoon. On top of
this, very low relative humidity in the 20-25% range overspreads
much of eastern Nebraska. While much of the area is green, a few
drier areas remain over portions of northeast Nebraska closest
to the South Dakota border. Very high fire danger is anticipated
as a result, but borderline fuel conditions preclude a Red Flag
Warning at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures well into
the 80s to near 90 despite the front.

Thankfully, this system remains progressive with cooler
temperatures and lighter winds beginning to move in by Wednesday
night. Light winds, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the
70s to near 80 will be a welcomed return to the area on Thursday.
Enjoy this while you can as more active weather remains on the
horizon beyond this point. As the overall pattern transitions
towards a more progressive orientation, rain chances remain in
the forecast. Currently, a trough is expected to dig into the
southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of this, warmer temperatures
and thunderstorms are anticipated. Friday may see more limited
coverage, but widespread rainfall is forecast for Saturday.
Currently, at least some threat of severe weather and flash
flooding is anticipated based on latest forecast model guidance.
Beyond Saturday, continued active weather is expected with rain
chances at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the
forecast period. A cold front will move across eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa today, resulting in winds shifting to the
northwest and increasing to around 15-25kts with gusts as high
as 45kts. Winds will decrease after 00Z.

KOFK: The cold front has moved through the area this morning.
Winds have shifted to the north and will become northwesterly
by 15Z.

KOMA: The cold front will move into the Omaha area over the next
2-3 hours, shifting winds to the west before becoming
northwesterly by 18Z. A few light rain showers have developed
near KFET, KBTA, and KMLE. These showers will move to the east
over the next 1-2 hours. Additional thunderstorms will stay east
of the Missouri River.

KLNK: LLWS will still be possible through 14Z at the terminal. Expect
a wind shift later this morning as the cold front surges through.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ068-089>093.
IA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ043.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

534
FXUS63 KGID 171135
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will create
  near critical fire weather conditions today across north
  central Kansas and west of the Tri-Cities area in Nebraska.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Friday evening with
  the highest chances Saturday evening and overnight (65% to 95%
  chance).

- There is a threat of severe storms and heavy rainfall Saturday
  into Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas are currently elevated mostly out of the south. Winds in some
locations are gusting up to around 20 to 25 knots due to a low-level
jet moving over the area. Winds will transition to the southwest to
northwest by sunrise as a cold front begins to move into the area
today. Winds will mostly be out of the northwest to north today with
gusts increasing up to around 35 to 45 MPH. The highest wind gusts
will be north of Interstate 80. The lowest wind gusts of around 20
to 30 MPH will be in north central Kansas. Despite the arrival of
the cold front, temperatures today are expected to warm up into the
80s and 90s. Minimum humidity values of 15% to around 30% are
expected today with the lowest values of 15% to 20% across north
central Kansas and west of the Tri-Cities area in Nebraska. This
will create near critical fire weather conditions today. The
hindering factor in the fire weather threat is recent rainfall which
has resulted in a greenup of fuels.

Beyond today, there will be increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Friday evening (up to 30% chance). The
highest chances will be Saturday evening and night (65% to 95%
chance). The threat for severe storms Saturday into Saturday night
continues to be a concern with high wind shear and fairly high CAPE
along with a shortwave passing overhead. Dewpoints will be in the
60s which will allow for heavy rain/flooding potential. Details on
exact threats and timing remain uncertain at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly major changes to speak of, as the items listed in Key
  Messages above continue to ring true.

- Officially, our forecast remains completely void of any
  mentionable rain chances (meaning chances/PoPs less than 15%)
  through Friday afternoon. That being said, we cannot rule out
  later forecast possibly introducing some chances for a few
  light showers/sprinkles especially late Wed night-Thurs AM.

- In the very minor forecast change department, high temps for
  Saturday- Monday have nudged down a few degrees from previous.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. June 23):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 230 PM:
By most folks` standards, today has simply been a seasonably-
pleasant mid-June day. Under generally partly cloudy skies (a
fair amount of passing high level cirrus), high temps are on
track to top out between 82-90 degrees in most places...overall-
coolest in our eastern NE counties and overall-warmest in our
extreme southwestern counties (Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) which are
most favored to reach/slightly exceed 90. Humidity levels are
also fairly low, owing to dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Winds
have thus far today been a minimal concern, with sustained
speeds in most places near-to- below 10 MPH. However, speeds
through the rest of the afternoon will gradually pick up a bit
and become more established from the south, with especially our
northern/western counties seeing gusts 20+ MPH by evening.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central
Plains region resides under northwesterly flow, directed between
a potent shortwave trough rotating through the Great
Lakes/eastern Midwest...and an expansive ridge/high centered
well off the southern CA coast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
A dry forecast continues, with any stronger/severe storms
focusing off to our south (southern KS) and/or east (mainly
northern/eastern IA). A few sprinkles/light showers could TRY
clipping the extreme northern/northeast fringes of our CWA late
tonight along the far southern edges of lift associated with a
shortwave trough diving out of the Dakotas toward IA, but this
meager precip should stay slightly to our north/northeast. The
main story overnight will be increasing southerly and eventually
southwesterly winds...in response to a surface low pressure
system deepening to around 990 millibars as it tracks from the
WY/NE border area early this evening...to east-central/southeast
NE by sunrise. In response, our winds tonight will ramp up to
sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. The
increasing winds and low-level warm air advection makes low
temps a little tricky, as many places will probably bottom out
pre-midnight before steadying or even rising a few degrees later
in the night. No matter what, the majority of our CWA will see
lows hold up 10+ degrees warmer than last night...with lows
aimed from mid-upper 60s in most places...to low 70s in our
south (especially KS).


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Although not as hot as it once looked, this will still be the
warmest day of the next week, and quite likely also the windiest.
Aloft, the aforementioned upper wave will track east- southeast
into the Midwest (likely prompting widespread severe storms
especially over IL/IN), while back here out west behind that
system we`ll remain dry under mostly sunny skies. High temps
were changed very little...ranging from mid-upper 80s in most of
our Nebraska counties...to low-mid 90s counties mainly
along/south of the KS border. As surface low pressure departs
east, a seasonably-strong cold front (especially in terms of
winds...less so temps) will cross our CWA during the morning,
with most of the day featuring sustained northwesterly speeds
20-30 MPH/gusts 30-45 MPH. The overall-strongest speeds (gusts
40-45 MPH) will target counties mainly north of I-80, with the
overall "lightest" winds in our KS counties (see separate Fire
Weather Section below for more on near-critical fire weather
concerns).

Wednesday evening-overnight, winds will steadily decrease in the
evening with sustained speeds at/under 10 MPH by around 11
PM, but remaining northerly through the night. We continue with
a dry forecast, but various models are increasingly suggestive
that we might need to consider adding some low chances for light
showers and/or sprinkles post-midnight to especially our
northern counties due to some lift from upper jet dynamics and
mid-level frontogenesis. Temp-wise, lows about 10 degrees cooler
than tonight...ranging from mid 50s north to low 60s south.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Our dry forecast continues for now, but the same possible chance
for light showers/sprinkles mentioned for late Wed night could
linger through much of Thursday AM especially in our eastern
counties. Even so, the vast majority of these 36 hours will
surely be dry as we remain under benign northwesterly flow
aloft. Breezes Thursday will remain out of the north-northwest
but not nearly as strong as Wednesday. High temps will be
roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday (mainly upper 70s-low
80s). On Friday, winds flip back around to southerly and become
a bit breezy...aiding another jump in high temps (at least 5-8
degrees warmer than Wed) with highs mainly mid-upper 80s.


- FRIDAY EVENING-SUNDAY (the weekend):
Not going to attempt to break down this time frame in super-
great detail, but as previously covered there is gradually
increasing concern for a severe thunderstorm/localized flooding
threat especially for Saturday afternoon-night. SPC introduced
a Day 5 "Slight Risk equivalent" to our entire CWA on this
morning`s outlook...which is also supported by CSU machine-
learning probs.

Any convection Friday night-Sat AM could perhaps
be strong to marginally- severe as low-level moisture and
instability starts to return northward, but it will probably be
fairly scattered in coverage. However, more widespread
convection is probable Saturday afternoon-overnight as a low-
amplitude upper wave enters the Plains from the west,
accompanied by an eastward-tracking surface low and likely a
strong southerly low-level jet. This is still beyond the scope
of any higher-res models to be sure, but latest ECMWF/GFS
clearly support a decent combo of at least 1500-2500 J/kg of
CAPE (instability) and at least 30-40KT of deep layer wind shear
(supportive of supercells at least initially). Dewpoints well
into the 60s convey heavy rain/flooding potential as well.
Whatever happens Saturday night (in terms of how widespread
storms are) will probably have at least some bearing on Sunday,
as although the ECMWF (more so than the GFS) keeps some healthy
instability around, both models usher a weak cold front through
our CWA...which should in theory shunt any higher- end severe
storm chances to our south. Again though, it`s just too early
for many details at this still Day 4-5 range...and there is
still time for severe storm concerns to ramp up more OR perhaps
decrease a bit.

Temperature-wise, highs trended down very slightly from
previous, but are aimed mostly mid-upper 80s Saturday...upper
70s-mid 80s Sunday.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
We remain under west-northwesterly flow aloft, with passing weak
disturbances bringing continued intermittent/mainly isolated-
to-scattered rain and thunderstorm chances. However, instability
currently appears markedly lower than the weekend and thus more
muted severe potential. High temps currently aimed mainly upper
70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.
The threat of low-level shear continues to diminish this morning
with sun rise and the weakening low-level jet. A cold front
continues to make its way towards the area, with an expected ETA
around 13Z at KEAR and KGRI. Strong NNW winds will remain
behind this cold front through this afternoon, with gusts up to
30kts possible. Winds will decrease around sunset this evening.
Clear skies will persist through most of the afternoon. Around
sunset, a midlevel cloud layer will build in and lower near the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Regarding WEDNESDAY near-critical fire weather conditions:
First of all and most importantly, we have deemed
grasses/vegetation across our entire CWA to be "green enough"
(in some far western areas JUST green enough) to NOT SUPPORT
truly widespread wildfire growth/spread. As a result, we have
NO Fire Weather Watches/Warnings posted for Wednesday.

That being said, the meteorological combination of moderately-
strong northwest winds and seasonably-low relative humidity (RH)
does make the Wednesday wildfire threat higher-than-average by
mid-June standards, and we are officially calling it near-
critical for our area. More specifically, nearly our entire CWA
will see the combination of the following for several hours from
mid-late morning through early evening:
- 1) Northwest winds gusting at least 30-45 MPH (overall-
  strongest counties north of I-80)
- 2) Relative humidity as low as 15-25% (overall-lowest in our
  KS counties along with far western Nebraska counties such as
  Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Scott
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion