Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

856
FXUS63 KOAX 080535
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger Sunday with near-record high
  temperatures forecast.

- Precipitation chances increase to 50-80% Tuesday night with
  minor snow accumulations possible from northeast Nebraska into
  northwest Iowa.

- Warm, windy and dry conditions may lead to dangerous wildfire
  conditions Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Sunday and Monday:

A vigorous shortwave trough over Manitoba late this evening
will continue east with another mid-level disturbance
traversing the Canadian Prairie Provinces Sunday into Sunday
night. In the low levels, warm advection associated with
prevailing southwest winds will persist overnight into Sunday,
supporting highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The record high
temperature of 73 (2020) at Norfolk will be within reach. The
warm weather coupled with minimum relative humidity of 20-25%
and wind gusts of 20-30 mph will result in very high fire
danger in areas that received little to no rainfall over the
last couple of days.

On Sunday night, a surface cold front trailing the secondary
disturbance mentioned above will settle south through the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. The boundary is expected to
stall across our area Monday with high temperatures dictated by
frontal location. Temperatures north of the front remain uncertain;
however, there`s a good chance of readings in the 70s south of it.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

The latest models are in reasonably good agreement in the
progression of a polar-branch shortwave trough from the northern
Intermountain Region Tuesday morning into the northern and central
Plains by Wednesday evening. At the same time, a subtropical-branch
cutoff low initially over northwest Mexico is expected to evolve
into an open wave while moving into the southern Plains Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Thereafter, that system is projected to become
loosely phased with the polar-branch trough across the Ozarks
into lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. At
the surface, low pressure attendant to the polar-branch trough
is forecast to move through or just to the south of our area
Tuesday with a trailing cold front ushering a colder air mass
into the region Tuesday night.

We could end up seeing a fairly significant temperature gradient
develop across the area Tuesday with highs ranging from the 40s and
50s in our northern counties to 60s and 70s in the south.
Precipitation chances begin to increase in southeast NE and
southwest IA Tuesday afternoon with the peak probabilities of
50-80% forecast Tuesday night. The high precipitation chances
Tuesday night are contingent on the synergistic phasing of the
separate systems (mentioned above) to yield a broader region of
forcing for ascent. Some of the more recent model data suggest
the better forcing with the subtropical-branch disturbance
remaining to the south of our area. We`ll have to wait and see.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, sufficient air mass
cooling is expected to occur to support at least a rain-snow mix
at many locations. The best potential for minor snow accumulation
is across northeast NE into northwest IA, where the various
ensemble systems indicate a 40-70% chance of at least a dusting.

It will be blustery and cooler Wednesday with highs in the 40s.


Thursday and Friday:

An amplifying shortwave trough is forecast to move from central
Canada into the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night, in
tandem with a surface low. Gusty southwest winds to the south of
the low track will advect a warmer air mass into the region
Thursday with highs bouncing back into the 60s to low 70s. The
warm, windy, and dry conditions will result in a potentially
dangerous fire-weather day.

A front trailing the surface low is expected to move through the
area Thursday night with cooler conditions forecast on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

An all-VFR TAF period is on tap, with southwesterly winds
expected to continue while wavering slightly to the west during
the late morning into the afternoon hours. As of now, strong
winds at FL015 of 45 kts have developed, causing low-level wind
shear. As winds become more westerly tomorrow, gusts will also
develop, reaching 20-25 kts at their peak (strongest at KOFK).
Winds will diminish starting at 00z tomorrow evening, and the
only remaining concern will become the redevelopment of low-
level wind shear at KOMA, as nearly westerly winds at FL020
reach 35 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

546
FXUS63 KGID 080822
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
322 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-Critical fire weather conditions possible across the area today,
  with briefly critical conditions possible along/north of I-80
  and west of Highway 281.

- Highs in the 70s today and Monday.

- Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday
  evening/night, with the highest chances (50-75%) and
  precipitation (0.10-0.25") across southeastern portions of
  the area.

- Fire weather concerns return to the area on Wednesday and
  Thursday due to winds gusting 25-35mph and low afternoon
  relative humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Skies are clear this morning across the area. Westerly winds remain
elevated, gusting 15-25mph, keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to
low 40s. Aloft, a trough sits over the Midwest, with a cutoff low
underneath a ridge over the West Coast.

Highs today climb into the low to mid 70s aided by westerly
downslope (warming) winds. The warm temperatures will also bring
near critical to briefly critical fire weather conditions to the
area this afternoon. Westerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected,
strongest along and north of Interstate 80. Afternoon relative
humidity (RH) values fall below 25 percent across the area,
with RH values falling below 20% southwest of a line from Beloit
to Kearney. Combined, this will result in widespread near-
critical fire weather conditions across the area. A window of
critical fire weather conditions could develop for areas west of
Highway 281 and along/north of Interstate 80. Given that the
window of critical conditions looks to be fairly brief (1-2
hours), opted against issuing a Red Flag Warning for the time
being. If confidence in stronger winds or lower RH increases
(greater mixing), one may end up be needed later today.

Highs soar into the mid to upper 70s on Monday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. The warmth will result in low
afternoon RH values, falling to 15-25%. Winds look to be slightly
lighter, keeping fire weather concerns lower than on Sunday. Still,
a window of near-critical fire weather conditions could develop
across portions of Dawson/Buffalo/Sherman/Valley counties where
winds are expected to be the strongest (gusting 20-25mph).

A cold front associated with the passing shortwave trough dives into
the area on Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures to the area (highs
50s/60s). As the cutoff low over the southwest merges with the
jetstream, it will bring a chance for rain to far southeastern
portions of the area Tuesday evening. A reinforcing cold front also
brings a chance for light precipitation to northwest portions of the
area Tuesday evening/night. Otherwise the second half of the
forecast period remains on track with the main concern being near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday due to breezy/gusty winds. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026


This Afternoon through Monday...

Water vapor imagery from satellite this afternoon reveals a positively
tilted and a elongated/stretched trough across much of the Central
U.S. this afternoon. The northeastern and more progressive end to to
the wave is expected to pinch off from the southwest base, forming a
cut-off low across the Southwest U.S. This process will allow for
some stabilization aloft from zonal oriented flow taking over for the
start of new week. This pattern shift should bat off any
precipitation chances until at least Tuesday. At the surface, higher
pressure with subsidence aloft will keep skies clear and winds
light/steady (gusts 

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion