77°F
Updated:
7/29/2026
02:58:14am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
291 FXUS63 KOAX 290506 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily across southeastern Nebraska overnight into Wednesday morning. Heavy rain and gusty winds may be possible with any storms that do develop. - A series of systems move through the region Wednesday night through Friday, bringing the potential for measurable rainfall. A few strong to severe storms may be possible Thursday evening/night. - Cooler temperatures are expected for the latter part of the week with highs in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The forecast period begins with the upper ridge over the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle and northwest flow over the Great Plains. A weak shortwave is moving around the ridge and will arrive over the area later tonight/early Wednesday morning. The best chance (20-30%) for showers/storms will be across southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However, several models are showing precipitable water values of 1.75"+ over southeastern Nebraska through tomorrow morning. Any storms that are able to develop may produce heavy rain which could lead to some localized flash flooding. Wednesday, the ridge shifts slightly east, over the central Dakotas as a trough comes ashore over the PACNW. This will be a system to watch as it works its way across the CONUS, as it is expected to be our next storm system. A few lingering showers/storms may be possible in southeastern Nebraska early Wednesday morning, clearing out by mid-morning. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon. Areas, particularly north of Hwy 92 may see some hazy skies through the day as wildfire smoke filters into the region from the northwest. Wednesday night into Thursday, a series of disturbances move across the region bringing chances for showers and storms. Any morning convection may impact the severe weather potential expected later in the day. The main wave is expected to move into the region Thursday evening/night with warm, gulf moisture moving into the region. A few storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall being the main concerns. Precipitable water values continue to look pretty high for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Flash flooding may be a concern as well Thursday evening/night. The upper wave will slide east, over central and western Iowa and Minnesota Friday. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms Friday morning, gradually ending west to east by early afternoon. Enjoy some cooler temperatures with Friday highs topping out in the low to mid-80s and Saturday morning lows in the low to mid-60s. The cooler weather sticks around through the weekend with a drier pattern arriving. Saturday, an upper trough arrives over British Columbia and the Aleutian Islands. Meanwhile, an upper ridge nudges east over the Dakotas, with northerly flow setting up over the Great Plains. Through the weekend, a few models are showing low pressure developing and pushing into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with the ridge being pushed over Minnesota and high pressure setting up over the Four Corners. Expect a pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid-80s and lows in the 60s. Dry weather and gradual warming is expected heading into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the duration of this TAF cycle. Winds at 12 kts or less from the east southeast will become southeasterly by the late morning. There is a low 20 to 30% chance for some showers and storms after 09z that could affect KLNK, but chances remain too low for inclusion in TAF at this time. Expect some cumulus clouds based around 4,000 to 9,000 feet by the afternoon along with high based clouds. Some may develop into scattered showers or storms after 21z and affect KOMA and KLNK (20% chance), but model guidance shows wide variability with placement of features so have kept mentions out for this issuance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Castillo
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
065 FXUS63 KGID 290603 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/non-severe storms possible especially within portions of the southwestern 2/3rds of our forecast area through early- mid morning...potentially mostly concentrated within a fairly focused, northwest-southeast oriented corridor/band. IF this slow-moving convection materializes, localized heavy rain of 1-3" possible. - Additional upper level disturbances moving through the area Wednesday evening through Thursday night keep shower/storm chances in the forecast...mainly focused on the evening/overnight hours. Some storms Thu-Thu night could be marginally severe. - Forecast dries back out of for the end of the week into the start of next week...highs generally remain in the 80s-near 90. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Currently through tonight... Seeing dry conditions across the forecast area this afternoon, following a round of showers and thunderstorms which passed through last evening through early this morning. This disturbance brought measurable rainfall to basically the entire forecast area...though a good chunk were only a few hundredths to around 0.15 of an inch. Main winners were along a narrow swath running roughly from Smith Center, KS up into southern York County...where totals were closer to 0.4-1.0 inch (isolated spots exceeded 1 inch). This system helped cool temps a bit, and though dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70s...heat index values are an improvement over the past few days, sitting more in the 90s. Upper air and satellite data show little change in the overall pattern across the CONUS...ridging continues to dominate the High Plains/central CONUS, keeping our flow west- northwesterly. The surface pattern across the area remains pretty weak, which has kept winds for most locations on the light/variable side. Seeing some scattered thunderstorms developing off to our west over the Rockies in CO up into the WY/NE border area, where steeper lapse rates here at peak-heating lie. The WNW flow aloft will push this activity east the rest of this afternoon/evening...although not very quickly. Kept the rest of this afternoon into the evening hours dry...models are in decent agreement showing this activity gradually fading the further east it pushes, eventually losing daytime heating and there isn`t quite as much instability as was in place the past few days. After midnight, models are showing the potential for increased storm development...running roughly WNW to ESE across central/southern portions of the forecast area, along increased (although still not strong) forcing along lower to mid-level boundaries/convergence. Models vary on just how much coverage there is...kept the PoPs on the lower side (20-30 percent), but broad. Not expecting this activity to be severe...though instability remains in place, the overall forcing is weak and deep layer shear looks to struggle to even get to 20kts. Wednesday and Thursday... The main story through the mid-week period continues to lie with a couple more upper level shortwave disturbances passing through...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the models/forecast. Think that Wednesday will be similar to today...in that there could be some activity left over from tonight lingering around mainly southern/eastern portions of the area during the early- mid morning hours...with the majority of the daytime hours being dry. Not a lot of change in the upper level pattern, with the persistent ridging keeping that west-northwesterly flow in place. At the surface, models are showing winds turning more southeasterly...with speeds around 10-15 MPH, some show the potential for gusts near 20 MPH in spots. Forecast highs also similar to today in the upper 80s to low 90s. Little more uncertainty remains Wednesday night on through Thursday night with the timing/coverage of precipitation associated with additional disturbances moving through. Models vary more on Wed night into Thursday, some more generous with activity, others showing a smaller swath developing with weaker forcing. Models remain pretty consistent showing a stronger wave moving through Thu evening-night...bringing better potential for storms, some of which could be strong-severe (the entire area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area). Forecast highs a bit more of a range from the mid 80s-mid 90s...driven by some models keeping activity lingering around longer into the day than others. Friday on into early next week... Forecast for the end of the week into the start of the new work week dries back out. The main impact from the disturbance moving through Thursday night is with the westward shift of the main upper level ridge axis, bringing more amplified north- northwesterly flow to the Central Plains at least through the weekend. Models showing an overall lack of disturbances through the weekend, with some low PoPs returning around Tuesday. Breezy NNE winds are forecast for Friday in the wake of a sfc frontal passage...but at this point that front doesn`t look to have a notable downward impact on temps or dewpoints, with highs in the mid-80s to near 90. Forecast highs through the weekend on into Monday are similar to Friday, mainly in the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): Although VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free conditions are likely/expected through the majority of the period, there are definitely a few uncertainties/possible "catches", as outlined below. As for winds, assuming no enhanced thunderstorm outflow materializes, winds should be a minimal issue throughout the period. Sustained speeds should average at- or-below 10KT, with direction mainly easterly to southeasterly. - Main potential concerns and associated uncertainties: 1) Possible low ceiling and/or visibility?: At this time, have maintained VFR in prevailing groups. However, SOME models/guidance fairly strongest suggest that at least an MVFR (possibly lower) ceiling could materialize at some point this morning and perhaps even stick around into the afternoon, while other models/guidance maintain VFR and no worse than scattered low clouds. This is frustrating from a forecast perspective, but have maintained an approach of keeping things on the optimistic side until/unless "proven otherwise", as have also seen many instances where potential showers/thunderstorms "disrupt" or at least delay potential low stratus from forming. As a result, for now have only "hinted" at potential sub-VFR ceiling in scattered lower cloud groups. It`s a similar story with regard to possible sub-VFR visibility, as either spotty heavy rain and/or at least light fog could also show it`s hand at some point this morning, just a lot of uncertainty regarding likelihood. 2) Possible rain/thunderstorms: Honestly, the majority of the period will feature at least a small (10-20% ) chance of very isolated/spotty convection. However, through much of this time this probability is too low for TAF inclusion. However, the main exception (which is also far from certain but at least more possible) is a chance for at least brief/intermittent showers/storms affecting the area mainly 09-15Z this morning. Given only medium confidence in occurrence, have maintained only basic PROB30 groups at this time. Should storms impact KGRI/KEAR, the main issue would be heavy downpours and associated reduced visibility. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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