Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

856
FXUS63 KOAX 272313
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues today, with peak heat index values of
  105 to 118 degrees.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible overnight tonight
  into early Tuesday (20-30% chance).

- Temperatures settle back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
  Tuesday and Wednesday, with precipitation chances returning
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A broad upper-level ridge across the Rockies into the Great Plains
is leading to hot weather across the western half of the CONUS. This
combined with humidity from southerly flow advecting moisture in
from the Gulf with added agricultural contributions is leading to
the high heat/high humidity scenario from the last couple of days.
Good news is that the weak frontal boundary dropping south across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today will help to push off some
of the added moisture from the Gulf as well as advect in milder
temperatures starting tomorrow. Yes, today will be our last day of
extreme heat, at least for this stretch, with highs tomorrow back in
the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices back down below 100.

This afternoon we have a few pop-up showers and storms that have
developed along the front moving through mostly east of our Iowa
counties. These are occasionally clipping far eastern Shelby and
Pottawattamie Counties, though. Not expecting anything severe, but
worst case we could see 1-1.25 inch hail. The better chance for
storms to impact our area will be overnight into early Tuesday.
Storms from central Nebraska should be weakening and falling apart
as they move into eastern Nebraska leading to greater chances (20-
30%) over our far western counties, generally decreasing as you get
farther east. While these storms should be fairly weak, we could see
strong winds if any hold together into our area. Another scenario to
watch is the HRRR redevelops some scattered showers and storms along
the remnant boundary around 16-18Z Tuesday along and east of the
Missouri River. These again likely won`t be severe but could produce
some gusty winds.

Cloud cover will linger through Tuesday morning from the overnight
storms as well as any late-morning showers/storms. We should see
gradual clearing Tuesday afternoon into the evening allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday night
into early Wednesday we may see another chance (20%) for showers and
storms clipping our southeast Nebraska counties, but latest trends
keep this activity south and west of our area. Pattern stays fairly
stagnant into Wednesday, though a modest bump in humidity may be
observed as we see weak southerly flow move back in as the High over
the region starts to slide east.

Toward the end of the work week we see a more substantial cool-down
ahead as a trough moving out of the PacNW pushes east overtopping
the ridge. As this approaches, we`ll see a low pressure system
develop and track along the Nebraska-South Dakota state line
creating shower and storm chances late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This Low lingers until it gets picked up by the upper-
level wave Thursday afternoon, leading to a fairly rainy day on
Thursday into Thursday night. The National Blend of Models keeps
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday, likely due to
uncertainty in coverage of storms from differences in the track
timing/placement of the surface Low. Greater coverage of showers and
storms likely would lead to cooler highs than currently predicted.
In any case, cooler air out of central Canada will likely move in
behind this system for Friday going into the weekend for a better
reprieve from the heat.

While we see milder temperatures Friday into Saturday, we see the
ridge start to build back up to our west, looming... Temperatures
trend back upward Sunday into Monday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast
period. Winds will decrease this evening, becoming light and
variable. Expect an increase in cloud cover heading into the
overnight hours. There is a 15-20% chance of a few isolated
showers/storms developing and potentially impacting KOFK and
KLNK from 08Z and 12Z; however, confidence in this occurring
remains low. KOMA may also have a chance (20%) for an isolated
shower or storm popping up between 15Z and 17Z tomorrow, with
low confidence here as well.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

041
FXUS63 KGID 280302
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1002 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Short Term and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm activity already ongoing across portions of the
  High Plains late this afternoon...still looking at the
  potential for activity to gradually drift east this evening-
  tonight into the forecast area. How the overall coverage ends
  up evolving still has some questions...may end up being fairly
  scattered in nature. Not out of the question some storms could
  be strong-marginally severe...with wind gusts near 60 MPH the
  primary hazard.

- Periodic storm chances continue on through the middle of the
  week (mainly during the evening-overnight hours)...and we
  finally get a break from the heat the past few days. Highs are
  more in the upper 80s-mid 90s Tue-Thu, with mid 80s-near 90
  Fri-Sun.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Simply acknowledging the merciful end of the Extreme Heat
  Warning (which was allowed to expire at 10 PM):

Although it is still extremely humid across the area this
evening (dewpoints mainly 75-80), temperatures have fallen
enough that heat index values have slipped at least slightly
below 100 degrees in all areas. As a result, the Extreme Heat
Warning will be allowed to expire.

Although the next few days will be seasonably-warm, afternoon heat
index readings should mainly top out no higher than 90-100 degrees,
too low to warrant any additional Warnings or Advisories.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently through tonight...

Outside of the brutal heat and humidity, overall quiet
conditions remain in place across the forecast area this
afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show
little change in the ridging dominating the pattern, centered
roughly over the OK/TX/CO/NM border area...keeping flow across
the Central Plains west-northwesterly. At the surface, an
overall weak frontal boundary has sunk south through the
area...currently stalled out from west- central KS northeastward
into southeast NE. This boundary hasn`t done much for
temperatures...with 3PM obs in the mid 90s to near 100, but
separating the more easterly winds to its north to the more
southerly winds to its south. Not surprisingly, moisture has
pooled along/north of this boundary...with nasty dewpoints in
the upper 70s to mid 80s across most of our Nebraska counties,
while a little more mixing is keeping dewpoints in our south in
the mid 60s-near 70. As a result, several automated sensors have
been showing heat index values more in the 115-120 degree range
at times. Obviously no changes made to the Extreme Heat Warning
that remains in place CWA-wide through 10PM this evening.

Off to the west-northwest over the High Plains, been seeing the
development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Overall
subtle forcing aloft, along with upslope low-level flow to the
north across portions of SD and the frontal boundary across
western KS is helping with activity. The brutal heating is
allowing for steeper lapse rates and no shortage of instability
(SPC Meso page showing 3000-5000 j/kg of MLCAPE across the
region)...but deeper layer is shear is pretty low. Winds aloft
are not strong, so not seeing quick movement with any of this
activity...more just gradually drifting east with time.

This evening on through tonight...there remains the potential
for showers/storms to continue making their way east through
the forecast area. Precipitation chances remain pretty broad in
nature...models still showing some variation on just how much
coverage there ultimately ends up being. Not out of the question
that a few of these storms could be on the strong to marginally
severe side given the lingering instability...wind gusts near
60 MPH look to be the primary hazard, and the entire CWA remains
in the Day 1 Marginal Risk area.

Mid-Week...

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, overall no notable
changes in the forecast. Models show little change in the upper
level pattern, with the main upper level ridge axis continuing
to run roughly through the High Plains. There remain periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms...mainly during the mid-
late evening and overnight hours...as models continue to show
the potential for shortwave disturbances riding around the edge
of the main ridging and sliding through the area. Precipitation
chances Tue evening-night and again Wed evening-night remain
generally in the 20-50 percent range...with models then showing
the potential for a stronger shortwave disturbance to dig
further south, with more widespread 40-60 percent chances Thu-
Thu night. Still plenty of details to iron out with the
timing/coverage of those chances.

More noteworthy for the mid-week period is models showing a
break from the heat from the past few days. Highs Tue-Thu are
forecast in the upper 80s-mid 90s...with heat index values more
in the 90s-near 100...vs the well above 100 from the past few
days.

Friday and on...

The forecast for Friday on into the weekend dries out...but will
see if that ultimately ends up panning out that way. The upper
level disturbance that moves through Thu-Thu night looks to
give the main ridge axis a better push back to the
west...leaving our area with more amplified north-northwesterly
flow. At this point models aren`t showing much in the way of
disturbances impacting the area. This shift in the ridging helps
keeps temps closer to normal for this time of year...generally
forecast to range from the mid 80s to near 90 through this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility along with
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through the vast majority of
the period. That being said, VFR cannot be "guaranteed"
throughout, and there are some potential aviation concerns:

-1) One or more rounds of showers/thunderstorms (possibly strong
 with gusty winds?) are possible overnight. Even at this close
 time range, there is still considerable uncertainty on "exact"
 timing and likelihood of occurrence. As with previous TAFS,
 have continued to highlight thunderstorm potential in PROB30
 groups, but have moved up the primary potential window of
 activity to 03-09Z KEAR/04-10Z KGRI. It`s certainly possible
 that spotty activity could linger beyond this...even into at
 least mid-morning Tuesday...but probability is too low to
 justify PROB30 at this time.

-2) Mainly brief/sporadic sub-VFR visibility/ceiling cannot be
 ruled out at times, with any sub-VFR visibility tied to
 possible heavier rain and/or mainly light fog, and any
 potential sub-VFR ceiling tied to thunderstorms or any "random"
 lower stratus that develop in their wake. At this time,
 confidence in occurrence is too low for any sub-VFR in TAFS.

- Winds:
The primary (but far from certain) concerns involves any
potential strong thunderstorm-outflow tonight. Have included
VRB30KT with aforementioned PROB30 groups, but there is a low
probability for severe-caliber gusts of 50+KT. Aside from any
thunderstorm-related outflow/influences, winds are a minimal
concern, with sustained speeds at-or-below 10KT at least the
vast majority of the period, and direction mainly varying
between some component of easterly or northerly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion