Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

195
FXUS63 KOAX 051835
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remaining light rain activity will continue to shift south of
  the area, with anything that does reach the ground staying
  close to a trace.

- Cooler temperatures are expected the through Wednesday, with
  frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings across
  northeast Nebraska.

- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s by the
  end of the work week, with additional rain chances (40-70%)
  Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad trough over the
northeastern CONUS squashing most of the mid/upper flow south of the
area, while a cutoff low pushes further into the Great Basin. Cooler
conditions have settled into the area after the frontal passage
yesterday, with 50s and 60s on tap for highs this afternoon
underneath a building cumulus field and mid/upper clouds continuing
to waft by across southeast Nebraska into Iowa. Embedded in those
mid/upper clouds have been some very light shower activity, that has
only amounted in trace measurements, and is set to further diminish
through the day. Our continue green-up continues to tamp down fire
danger, with RH values in the 25-35% this afternoon and even drier
conditions later this week needing stronger winds to cause concern.
Heading into the overnight hours, the northerly wind will funnel
cooler air into the area, with 30s expected at our lowest. Cloud
cover overnight could keep us from cooling too much, and the current
forecast is on the chilly side of guidance -- meaning if we realize
it or cooler, northeast Nebraska may need a Freeze Warning for a
handful of counties. Winds should be just enough to keep frost
formation limited, making a Frost Advisory unlikely at this time.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Moving forward through the middle of the week, we`ll continue to see
the aforementioned low to the west push to the east, but struggle to
move into the area as it is steered southeast underneath the stout
trough to the northeast. We`ll be stuck in northwesterly flow
through the weekend into Next week, with rain chances making or
breaking on weak shortwaves that will only amount to meager rainfall
if they do end up precipitating. The area`s most widespread chance
at rainfall arrives from British Columbia/Alberta Saturday, with
quite a bit of wiggle room existing in it`s placement. The trough to
the northeast will still be continuing to swirl over the Great
Lakes, and will repel systems away from moving too far eastward into
the Central and Northern Plains. Temperatures will stay cool
Wednesday, and then start a slow climb that continues over the next
7 days as heights build over the western third of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to last through the next 24 hours,
with north-northwesterly winds and occasional gusts to 15-20 kts
occurring through the afternoon. Winds will become light
overnight, varying somewhat in direction but leaning northerly,
before returning north-northwesterly tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

517
FXUS63 KGID 051918
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
218 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s today and
  Wednesday with rain showers across portions of the area.
  Temperatures will be warmer beginning Thursday.

- There are frost/freeze concerns Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning across much of the area but higher winds may be a
  hindering factor.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather may develop Thursday,
  Friday, and Saturday across portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper low is centered north of the Great Lakes over Canada with
an associated upper trough extending southwest. There is another
upper low centered over Southern California which is attached to the
previously mentioned upper trough. Nebraska and Kansas are under the
upper trough with rain showers moving across portions of the region.
A surface high along with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are across
the area. These conditions will keep temperatures cooler today with
highs mostly in the 50s. Showers may continue across portions of the
area tonight with the highest chances in north central Kansas
(portions of the area up to around 90% chance). Low temperatures
tonight are expected to range from the low 30s to low 40s. Frost
potential is low (20% or less) tonight despite areas reaching the
low to mid 30s due to drier air expected to be in place as well as
cloud cover.

The cooler airmass will still be in place on Wednesday with high
temperatures fairly similar to today. Rain showers will still be
possible (15% to 70% chance) on Wednesday due to increased lift from
the upper trough still being over the region. Rain showers are
expected to be out of the area by Wednesday night with clearing
skies and temperatures dropping into the 30s (mostly low to mid
30s). There will be increased (around 40% to 50%) frost and freeze
concerns for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The hindering factor
will be increased wind speeds which may result in slightly higher
temperatures and/or prevent frost from developing.

The cooler airmass will depart the area by Thursday with winds
increasing out of the southwest to west Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 70s on Thursday.
Heightened fire weather concerns are expected on Thursday with wind
gusts getting up to near/around 20 MPH and minimum humidity values
generally between 15% and 25% across the whole area. Overnight lows
will be warmer beginning Thursday night/Friday morning with
temperatures mostly in the 40s. Winds across the area will be in the
process of transitioning to the northwest Thursday night/Friday
morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest to north Friday
morning and will decrease later in the day. High temperatures are
again expected to be in the 70s. There are some concerns for fire
weather on Friday due to lingering wind gusts in the afternoon and
minimum humidity values possibly getting down to around 20% across
west/northwest portions of the area.

A cold front will move southward towards south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. In advance of the
front, temperatures are expected to warm up to the 70s and 80s.
There is some fire weather concern on Saturday with wind gusts up to
20 to 30 MPH and humidity down to around 25% across western and
southern portions of the area. If the front speeds up, then
temperatures will not be as warm. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening in
association with the cold front (15% to 50% chance). Cooler
temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures are then expected to rebound into the upper 70s to mid
80s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to gradually improve this afternoon but
likely to be low end VFR. Brief low ceilings could return
between 02z and 06z for KEAR. Off and on rain showers are
expected at KEAR until around 09z. Rain showers are expected to
stay away from KGRI but there is a small chance of an isolated
rain shower or two until around 09z. Northerly winds will
become more variable around 00z then more north northeasterly
between 06z to 09z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion