Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

897
FXUS63 KOAX 250350
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will move through the
  area this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe weather and
  locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Friday afternoon through Saturday morning looks dry.

- Thunderstorm chances return Sunday into Monday, with some
  severe weather threat, especially on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

     Remainder of this afternoon through tonight...

Synthesis of radar and satellite imagery as of 230 PM indicates
a vorticity maximum over central NE, which is supporting a
loosely organized shield of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of eastern NE. More vigorous convection has recently
developed just north of Hebron along an apparent surface
boundary that extends east-northeast through portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA. While considerable cloud debris
and marginal boundary-layer moisture content have limited air
mass destabilization so far today, filtered sunshine should
allow for further destabilization this afternoon along and south
of the surface boundary. That notion is consistent with latest
CAM guidance, which indicates a gradual uptick in thunderstorm
intensity later this afternoon into evening along or just south
of the I-80 corridor.

Locally backed surface winds along and just north of the surface
boundary are resulting in enhanced low-level hodograph curvature
with the current KOAX VWP indicating 0-1-km SRH of 200-250
m2/s2. A number of the CAM solutions indicate updraft helicity
swaths with the simulated storms, which is consistent with the
currently observed wind profile. So, despite the marginal
instability, the potential exists for embedded supercell
structures capable of hail up to quarter size, locally strong
wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two through 7 or 8
PM. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms could move
through the area late tonight; though no severe weather is
expected with that activity.



     Friday and Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will build over the central U.S. while a
surface high progresses from the northern Plains into Great
Lakes region. That pattern evolution will allow a drier low-
level air mass to filter into the region Friday and Friday night
with no precipitation expected during that timeframe. By
Saturday, low-level moisture will begin to increase on the
backside of the surface high, with the forecast indicating 15-20%
PoPs across our western counties. High temperatures are expected
to be mainly in the 60s both days.


     Saturday night through Sunday night...

A prominent mid-level trough will progress through the Interior
West, encouraging the development of a surface low over the
northern or central High Plains on Sunday. As mentioned above,
low-level moisture will begin to increase by Saturday, with
that process being hastened by the development of a low-level
jet (LLJ) during this timeframe. The 12z global models suggest
that moisture increase coupled with steepening mid-level lapse
rates will promote air mass destabilization, with the potential
for periodic thunderstorm chances (peak PoPs of 40-60%) during
this time period. While specific details remain uncertain, a few
strong to severe storms appear possible.

Gusty south winds on Sunday will draw a warmer air mass into the
region with forecast highs in the 70s.


     Monday and Monday night...

The 12z models indicate a complex upper-air pattern evolution,
with an apparent lead shortwave trough progressing through the
northern Plains into upper MS Valley early in the day Monday.
That lead disturbance will then precede a neutral to positively
tilted trough, which will overspread the northern and central
Plains later Monday into Monday night. In response to those
upper-air developments, the primary surface low is expected to
develop from the northern Plains into upper Great Lakes on
Monday with a trailing cold front progressing through the mid MO
Valley. The cold front will serve as the focus for thunderstorm
development Monday afternoon and evening.

The early-day passage of the lead shortwave trough to our north
may result in the veering of low-level winds within the pre-
frontal warm sector, potentially reducing low-level hodograph
curvature and resultant SRH. Nonetheless, ample deep-layer
shear will combine with a moderately unstable air mass to
create a favorable environment for supercells capable of all
hazards. That notion is supported by various machine-learning
systems, which highlight far eastern NE and IA with some of the
highest severe-weather probabilities.


     Tuesday and Wednesday...

Surface high pressure is forecast to build through the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night, ahead of another frontal system,
which is expected to move into the area Wednesday night. As
such, the forecast will indicate a dry forecast Tuesday and
Tuesday night with increasing PoPs Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Low clouds expanding across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
will sock in IFR/LIFR cigs overnight at the terminals. Low
clouds will gradually improve to MVFR by Friday afternoon, but
remain MVFR until clouds start to break up late in the day.
Depending on how long it takes for clouds to break up we may
keep MVFR conditions through the end of the TAF period, but
could be as early as 00Z. Winds remain out of the north through
the TAF period, becoming more northeasterly late in the day on
Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald/Mead
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

075
FXUS63 KGID 242346
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
  across north central Kansas (50-60%) late this afternoon and
  evening, with lower probabilities (20-40%) across south
  central Nebraska. Any severe weather should be primarily
  limited to our Kansas counties.

- Mostly dry and seasonably cool temperatures return to the
  local area to end the week, with addition chances (20-50%) for
  showers and thunderstorms anticipated over the upcoming
  weekend. Despite the multiple chances for precip over the
  upcoming weekend, overall QPF amounts are expected to
  generally be less than 0.10".

- Temperatures will spike in to the 80s on Monday ahead of a
  cold front from the north and an upper level low ejecting from
  the Rockies. Severe weather could be possible with this next
  system, although the focus has trended further east the past
  couple of days.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances return next
  Wednesday/Thursday as the occasionally unsettled weather
  pattern continues across the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Widespread shower activity with a few isolated lighting strikes
moved across the forecast area today. As this disturbance
continues to push further east, a couple of thunderstorms have
been able to develop across Fillmore county the past hour as it
is tracking into a more favorable environment, but this
activity should rapidly exit the area by 4 PM with the focus
then shifting to our Kansas counties.

For the late afternoon and evening hours...expect the potential
for additional shower and thunderstorm development as another
weak upper level disturbance moves across the area. While
instability is not overly impressive, could see a few strong to
marginally severe storms early in the period across north
central Kansas where better instability resides. If realized,
hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph wind gusts will be the
primary concerns.

Late this evening, could see some additional shower and
thunderstorm development extend across south central Nebraska,
although this activity should be non-severe and diminish by
daybreak Friday. As the showers and thunderstorms diminish,
could also see a bit of fog development, especially considering
the moist ground and light northeasterly winds, but fog is not
expected to be widespread.

For the daytime hours Friday, skies will likely remain mostly
cloudy through the daytime hours with seasonably cool
temperatures and mostly dry conditions anticipated. Additional
weak disturbances in southwesterly flow aloft will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms over the
upcoming weekend. Given the more disorganized look of this
activity, anticipate more clouds than rainfall over the upcoming
weekend when all is said and done.

Temperatures will then spike into the 80s next Monday ahead of
a cold front expected to cross the area Monday night. Just ahead
of this cold front, and upper level low is expected to eject
out of the Rockies and cross the plains, potentially acting as a
trigger for shower and thunderstorm development Monday
afternoon and evening. While severe storms will be possible with
this set-up, the threat has trended further east, and
confidence in severe storms locally has decreased.

Dry weather should then return for Tuesday before additional
small chances for precip return toward the middle of next week.
Overall, an unsettled weather pattern continues with nearly
daily chances for at least some precip across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: LIFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs tonight into Fri
morning.

Tonight: Likely LIFR much or all of the night as stratus has
already lowered to 300-400ft...and don`t see much to change that
anytime soon. VSBYs are a bit more uncertain, but seems
plausible for some MVFR to continue to mix in with VFR. The
steady Nrly wind 9-13kt should keep VSBYs from getting worse to
IFR category. Removed all of the potential for convection
tonight as it appears we`ll be too stable. Did leave in a PROB30
group, though, for some showers that could try to work their way
in from the W late tonight into early Fri AM. Confidence: High.

Friday: Should slowly improve from LIFR to IFR CIGs 13-15Z, then
IFR to MVFR around midday into early aftn. VSBYs should be
primarily VFR thanks to moderate Nrly winds 10-15kt, gusting
20-25kt. Mainly dry conditions expected. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion