Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

246
FXUS63 KOAX 052314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing conditions become more widespread to cap off a
  splendid day, with fog development overnight likely.

- Milder temperatures through Thursday warming back up going
  into the weekend. Seasonably warm weather expected over the
  weekend.

- Chances are increasing for a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only
  small amount reaching the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to feature broad
troughing centered over the central third of the CONUS, with a
shortwave embedded at the base sweeping shower and storm activity
farther to the east into Missouri and Iowa. Drilling down to
the surface, we find ourselves in a post-frontal airmass with
the front itself draped across the Southern Plains into the mid-
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. Elevated shower and
storm activity is slated to continue across far southeast
Nebraska into Iowa for the next few hours before being further
shunted off to the east, with easterly winds taking over at 5-10
mph. Temperatures in the mid 70s to just over 80 degrees are
set to cap off an excellent afternoon with increasingly clear
skies -- setting the stage for fog chances overnight.

Winds are set to decrease underneath the building nocturnal
inversion overnight, as a ridge of high surface pressure helps calm
conditions across the area. HREF model output signals very little
insulating cloud cover aside from some low stratus across far
southeast Nebraska and Iowa, fog development likely where healthy
rainfall occurred this morning. Crossover temperatures are only
3-4 degrees above the overnight low, giving some uncertainty to
the density and southern extent of the fog. Some models do
limit its formation into Nebraska, favoring southern Iowa and
points northeast, from 4 AM to 9 AM tomorrow morning.

Thursday and Beyond:

Once winds begin to pick up Thursday morning and become more steady
out of the southeast, lingering areas of fog should clear up and
leave us with a slightly warmer, but still pleasant day that tops
out in the 80s. Shower and storm chances should remain across
northeast Kansas and to the northwest along a surface trough draped
across north-central Nebraska into South Dakota.

Friday into the weekend, we`ll be plowing into a warming trend
spurred on by mid-level height rises, a retreating jet stream, and
building thermal ridging just to the west of the area. One hangup
with the weekend forecast is just how much we will warm. The mix-
happy GFS/GEFS will steer the forecast towards highs that reach
well into the 100s while the rest of the global ensemble
members have a much more tentative lean that sets highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s (which is where our forecast sits as
well). Surface data from the global models have a lingering
boundary/front that sits across or near the forecast area, and
serve as a focus for cloud/precipitation development that could
affect the highs. A modest overlapping of ingredients for severe
storms stretches each day from Friday through much of next
week, peaking Saturday. Confidence isn`t there quite yet to pin
any locations down on a map, but don`t be surprised if something
shows up for tomorrow`s issuance of the Day 3 Severe Outlook
from the SPC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Clouds remain over southeast Nebraska with cigs around 2500-3500
ft at KOMA and KLNK. These will continue to slowly erode south
over the next few hours with clearing skies. Winds will relax
this evening as well setting up an ideal scenario for fog
development overnight. Expect extensive fog development over
areas that saw rain over the last 24 hours impacting at least
KOMA and KLNK. Greater uncertainty in the northern extent of fog
due to the amount of drying that has occurred near KOFK. Most
guidance keeps fog south of the terminal. Probably a 20% chance
of fog development here from around 11-14Z. Fog will linger for
several hours through the morning, expected to clear around
14-15Z. At this point, we could still see IFR cigs through
around 17Z before skies clear for the rest of the afternoon.
Winds tomorrow will mostly be out of the southeast at around
08kts, though KOFK could see gusts up to 20kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

825
FXUS63 KGID 052012
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
312 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more seasonably mild/pleasant day on Thursday, with areas
  of dense fog possible in the morning.

- Heat and humidity build back into the region over the
  weekend. Expect high temperatures in the 90s each day and peak
  heat indices may reach the lower triple digits, at times,
  particularly over north central Kansas.

- Pattern trends somewhat cooler and more active for the middle
  to later portions of next week. Until then, mainly dry
  conditions are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have cleared out of the area as of
early this afternoon, but considerable cloud cover remains, esp.
for areas S of I-80. As a result, temperatures remain quite cool
for early August - though not as cool as yesterday - in the
upper 60s to middle 70s. Winds aren`t nearly as breezy as
yesterday, either. Clouds will continue the decreasing trend and
allow for a late day run into the 70s to lower 80s, which
combined with continued light winds, should make for a very
pleasant late-summer evening.

The clearing skies, light winds, and recent rainfall will create
favorable conditions for the development of fog late tonight and
into Thursday morning, particularly right around dawn. Fog will
be possible just about anywhere, but models are hitting areas
along/S of Platte River down to around the KS/NE state line the
hardest. General pattern recognition and recent model trends do
support areas of dense fog and very low visibilities, so a
headline may be warranted at some point this evening or
overnight. For now, have hit the fog a bit harder in the grids
and continued mention in the most recent Hazardous Weather
Outlook (HWO). Any fog should be rather shallow and fairly quick
to mix out between 8-10AM Thursday morning.

The main weather story heading into the weekend will be the
return of hot and humid conditions as a dome of upper level
high pressure over the Desert SW builds/expands northeastward
over the Central Plains. This will force the primary band of
westerlies to retreat well N of the region for several days and
leave the region under mostly clear skies and persistent
southerly low level flow. Highs will build into the lower 90s to
lower 100s over the weekend, warmest in our far SW zones. So no
reason why dew points wouldn`t return back into at least the mid
60s to lower 70s, and wouldn`t rule out some mid to upper 70s in
typically favored areas along/E of Hwy 281. Heat indices will
respond accordingly into the upper 90s to lower 100s, though are
currently forecast to fall just shy of Heat Advisory criteria of
105F. With that said, any significant upward trend in forecast
peak heat indices could warrant one when considering the heat
will be around for 3-4 days. On the other hand, it`s early
August and we`re well acclimated to heat & humidity at this
point, so would want to see peak forecast values more than just
105-106F. There should be some Srly breezes to help out too.

Forecast appears pretty quiet in terms of rain chances next
several days. As always in these types of patterns, will need to
watch for some "sneaky" weak waves rounding the crest of the
ridge nearby or just to the N...but these would tend to favor
the overnight hours and areas mainly N of I-80.

There is decent model agreement and run-to-run consistency
amongst ensembles (and even some deterministic runs) to feel
pretty confident about a notable pattern change arriving for the
middle to later portions of next week. In fact, the most recent
50-member 12Z EPS shows a broad swath of positive 5-day
precipitation anomalies across the central Plains in the 12-17th
time frame. The upper ridge is forecast to flatten and reorient
more into the Deep South during this time frame. This would
allow for frequent rain chances from weak waves within
increasingly fast zonal upper flow and/or from convection
working off the High Plains. Either way, the orientation of the
upper ridge should allow for some mid-upper level monsoonal
moisture to work in from the SW and aid in precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Mid level clouds will gradually clear out this afternoon, with
quiet conditions and light E/ESE winds continuing into the
evening. Winds will go lgt and variable after sunset, which will
likely, eventually, set the stage for fog development late
tonight or towards dawn Thu AM. This fog could be dense given
the cooler temperatures and recent light rain, but have kept the
TEMPO group to 3/4sm to 1sm (IFR conditions), for now. Any
fog/stratus should dissipate by mid-AM, leaving decreasing
clouds and light SE winds for the remainder of the day.
Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion