56°F
Updated:
5/8/2026
01:50:25am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
857 FXUS63 KOAX 080517 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1217 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 10-14% chance for a few sprinkles early this morning into the afternoon hours. Highs warm to the mid to upper 70s. - 50-60% chance for some showers and storms over the Nebraska/Kansas border area on Saturday. - Highs in the 80s are forecast for Monday through Thursday, with chances for showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday (20-45%) and again Thursday (15-30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 04z RAP objective analysis shows a weak shortwave currently entering portions of central Nebraska. This feature combined with weak H7-H8 thermal advection has led to an area of mid level clouds slowly approaching the forecast area from the west. Latest CAM guidance continues to develop a band of light showers over areas along and south of the Platte River this morning, but the bulk of this precip will likely not reach the sfc given the low level dry air seen in forecast BUFKIT soundings. Have thrown in some sprinkles (10-14% chance) into the forecast for early this morning through 18z for most of the area with this forecast update. For the rest of the day, should see a mix of clouds and sun with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Similar to this morning, some model guidance hints at afternoon showers but with cloud bases at 10kft underneath dry air, we should stay dry. Winds will be breezy from the northwest, particularly over northeast Nebraska in the afternoon hours. Lows Friday night cool to the 40s. On Saturday, an H5 shortwave will eject from the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Plains as we remain in northwest flow. A secondary wave will ride the southwest periphery of the closed 522dam Canadian low. Sfc cyclogenesis ensues just ahead of the secondary wave over the Great Lakes, while the associated cold front extends from the sfc low toward much of Iowa into Nebraska. The front combined with the approaching Pacific Northwest wave may trigger a few scattered showers and storms, particularly in the late afternoon and evening hours when forcing for ascent is strongest. The newest deterministic CAM guidance has started trickling in for Saturday, but doesn`t appear to have much agreement on how far north precip may develop. 00z HREF probabilities indicate the highest chances for precip (40-50%) confined to areas south of a line from Lincoln to Clarinda, IA, while global ensembles including the Euro and Canadian seem to suggest the highest chances for precip along the Nebraska/Kansas border. At this time, have maintained the NBM solution which keeps PoPs of 15 to 30% south of the Platte River, and keeps 50 to 60% PoPs confined to the Nebraska/Kansas border. Expect highs to warm to the mid 70s behind the front, while 80s are expected ahead of the feature. Lows Saturday night cool to the 40s. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For Sunday, expect slightly cooler highs in the low 70s with a few clouds and dry conditions as sfc high pressure moves in. Temperatures rebound for Monday to the 80s as 1000-500 mb thicknesses expand and move toward the Central Plains. An H5 wave is progged to track from southern Saskatchewan into North Dakota and Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday morning. The feature will induce sfc cyclogenesis with a front swinging through the area overnight. A few showers and storms may develop with this feature as PoPs remain at 20 to 45%, but are largely confined to far northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa. Warm temperatures continue for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 80s and dry conditions. Expect slightly warmer temperatures for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, while locations in our far southwest could approach 90F. Chances for showers and storms return too, currently at 15 to 30%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light winds overnight should gradually shift to the northwest by late morning and early afternoon Friday as a weak front moves across the region. There is a low chance of showers tonight and late tomorrow afternoon, but aviation impacts are not anticipated due to very dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Chehak
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
137 FXUS63 KGID 080601 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 101 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers/weak thunderstorms possible this evening (any storms mainly in our southwest), with spotty light showers/sprinkles lingering here or there through the overnight. Any rainfall expected to be light (0.10" at most...many areas likely no more than sprinkles). - Solidly near-critical fire weather conditions looking increasingly-likely Friday afternoon (especially counties along/north of I-80), due to a combination of breezy northwest winds and relative humidity (RH) as low as 20-25%. Next week, at-least-near-critical conditions likely nearly every day as temps warm/winds increase. - Although likely only scattered in coverage, our overall BEST chance for showers/thunderstorms through the next 7 days arrives Sat afternoon-evening. Severe storms appear fairly unlikely, but a few stronger possible especially in our KS counties. - Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the forecast period with highs in the 70s/80s each day and overnight lows mainly 40s/50s. It is increasingly-likely that frost/freeze concerns are behind us for the spring. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 An upper level disturbance in northwesterly flow will cross the local area tonight brining with it the chance for a few high based showers/sprinkles and possibly a weak thunderstorm to parts of the local area. Given the lack of surface moisture, little to no accumulation is expected across the vast majority of the local area, with the best chance of a thunderstorm expected during the evening hours across areas primarily southwest of the Nebraska Tri-cities. Continued northwest flow will then persist into the weekend before an upper level ridge eventually transitions eastward across the local area by Sunday. Before the upper level ridge moves across the local area, one more notable disturbance is expected to impact the local area on Saturday brining with it a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening (although there is a low end chance for a few pop up sprinkles Friday afternoon). While a few stronger storms with mainly gusty winds will be possible with this disturbance/surface front Saturday, limited instability will likely limit the potential for severe weather...and the local area remains outside the marginal risk from SPC. That said, a few models such as the NAMnest fire up a line of storms along the front Saturday afternoon which could eventually impact local portions of north central Kansas before exiting the area, so will need to continue to keep an eye on the timing of this system. Thereafter...an upper level ridge is expected build across the area late in the weekend with a return to high temperatures well above normal (in the 80s) through at least the first half of next week. These warmer temperatures combined with a continued dry airmass and breezy afternoons will eventually likely result in some near-critical to critical fire weather concerns, although with fuels starting to green-up, some of this concern may be at least partially alleviated. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions with only a few sprinkles through sunrise. Winds turn to the northwest this afternoon, with gusts near 20kt. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Mangels
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