Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

834
FXUS63 KOAX 202353
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog redeveloping tonight.

- Rain chances increasing to 40-80% late tonight and Friday
  south of I-80.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend with increasing
  rain chances (40-70%) Monday.

- Temperatures trending cooler next week with highs in the 30s
  forecast for Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Tonight and Friday:

A negatively tilted short-wave trough over the southern Rockies
this afternoon is forecast to weaken as it progresses northeast
into an increasingly confluent mid-level flow pattern in place
from the central Plains into mid-MS Valley. At the surface, an
associated area of low pressure over the eastern TX panhandle
into western OK will develop into southeast KS by Friday morning
before accelerating east through southern MO. A weak boundary
which moved into our area last night will shift into KS and MO,
where it will link with the migratory surface low.

A relatively moist, low-level air mass present both ahead of
and behind the weak boundary contributed to considerable fog
development earlier today with visibilities gradually improving
as of early afternoon. Associated cloud cover remains fairly
widespread with today`s high temperatures adjusted lower to
account for it`s presence. A slightly drier air mass will work
its way into the northern part of our area tonight with fog
development/continuation most likely along and south of I-80.

Late tonight into Friday, strengthening low/mid-level
frontogenetical forcing ahead of the approaching short-wave
trough will support increasing rain chances (maximum PoPs of
40-80%) for locations south of I-80. Most of the precipitation
will be light, but some 0.25-0.50" totals are possible near the
KS border. Widespread clouds and areas of rain will limit
daytime heating Friday with highs in the 40s.


This Weekend:

Another mid/upper-level low is projected to move into Baja and
the Desert Southwest Saturday before shifting northeast into the
central and southern Rockies Sunday. Some amplification of a
downstream ridge over the central Plains is forecast with
southerly surface winds drawing a warmer air mass into the
region with highs in the 50s to low 60s.


Next Week:

The Rockies system mentioned above is forecast to shift into the
central Plains Monday with PoPs increasing to 40-70%. A higher-
latitude short-wave trough is expected amplify on the immediate
heels of the lead system across the northern and central Plains
Monday night into Tuesday, supporting the movement of a stronger
cold front through the area at that time. Highs mainly in the
50s Monday are forecast to fall into the 40s and 50s Tuesday, 30s
and 40s Wednesday, with 30s expected on Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

KOFK: VFR conditions persist for the early part of the TAF
period. Ceilings are expected to lower as a system to the south
lifts north overnight. Fog redevelopment is expected after
midnight, with visibilities at or below 3 miles possible.
Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR by 09Z. Fog is expected to
improve by 16Z but ceilings will hover around MVFR/IFR through
the end of the period.

KOMA: IFR conditions are ongoing at the terminal at this hour
with ceilings below 1000ft and visibility around 3SM. Fog
potential and lowered ceilings will continue through around
15-16Z, with improvements expected thereafter. There will be a
20-30% chance of a few showers in the vicinity of the terminal
from 15-21Z. While the chance for some rain is non-zero, there
was better confidence in impacts south of the terminal, so the
mention of showers has been omitted from prevailing conditions for
now.


KLNK: IFR/LIFR conditions are expected this evening into tonight
as fog continues to develop across the region. After 11Z, there
will be a chance for a few showers in the vicinity of the
terminal. The best chance (40-60%) of impacts to the terminal
will be between 14-20Z, with visibility reductions and low
ceilings expected. Ceilings will improve slightly to around
IFR/MVFR levels.



&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

390
FXUS63 KGID 202350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of patchy dense fog possible after midnight
  tonight. The focus of this fog should be across our south
  central Nebraska counties.

- The first significant rainfall event since late October will
  spread north across the local area this evening/overnight.
  Most areas will see some rainfall, but the focus will be south
  of I-80 with the highest totals anticipated across north
  central Kansas.

- Fantastic late fall weather anticipated for this weekend with
  highs in the 60s, light winds, and mostly sunny skies
  (especially Saturday).

- The next system will bring a chance of precip back to the
  area Sunday evening through Monday, with the beginning of a
  prolonged period of below normal temperatures starting
  Thanksgiving eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where
persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures
down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the
extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially
obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest,
the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding,
which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once
the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus
to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some
patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night.
Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some
dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our
Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon
HWO.

For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover
spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level
low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift
northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading
precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of
this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were
advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get
some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus
remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards
I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with
precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the
Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If
this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant
rainfall in almost a month across much of the area!

In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for
Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the
lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived,
however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly
sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back
above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend.

Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out
of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the
area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light
rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything,
this system has continued to track just a bit further north,
meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the
most favored areas will be across our south and east.

After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall
pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a
northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting
up across the plains for potentially an extended period of
time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble
members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early
as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: LIFR CIGs likely all night. VSBYs are more uncertain,
but are expected to fall to at least MVFR, if not IFR, after
03Z. Have PROB30s for rain beginning around 09Z, but probably
going to be closer to 12Z before steadier rain arrives. Winds
will be NE to NNE 7-11kt. Confidence: Medium to high.

Friday: Will start off the day with continued LIFR CIGs and
MVFR/IFR VSBYs in areas of light rain showers. Probably not
going to see much, if any, improvement until midday or early
afternoon when the rain ends. Could go back to MVFR or even VFR
if the stratus clears out sometime late afternoon or early
evening. Winds will remain out of the NNE to NW on Friday at
around 6-10kt. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion