80°F
Updated:
6/24/2026
3:04:21pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
284 FXUS63 KOAX 241856 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and storms are expected this evening/tonight, particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92. - Isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday night/Saturday morning, limited to northeastern Nebraska. - Expect very hot and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday as highs reach into the 90s to low 100s each day and heat index values approach 105. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 The forecast period starts out with a weak upper ridge over southern Wyoming/northern Colorado. A weak shortwave crosses into the region this evening/tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92 as the system rolls through. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and DCAPE values of 800-1200 J/kg are expected for areas along and south of a line from the Omaha Metro to York. Wouldn`t entirely rule out a strong storm or two developing with mainly a wind threat, particularly for areas south of Lincoln this evening/tonight. Thursday brings a shift in the pattern as a couple of weak shortwave troughs moves across the Wyoming/Colorado border, shifting us into more of a zonal flow pattern through Friday. Expect a slight cool down as temperatures rise mainly into the 70s, with a few isolated 80s possible along portions of the Missouri River. As the shortwaves move through Nebraska, there will be a chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. These chances are expected to taper off west to east by Thursday morning. We maintain zonal flow Friday with a deepening upper low over the Aleutian Islands and the PACNW. Expect this to be the last cool-ish day for awhile, with highs ranging form the mid-70s to mid-80s. Heading into the weekend, the upper low will push ashore over the West Coast, although there is still some uncertainty in where it will eventually come ashore. A broad upper trough will extend from the West Coast to the Rockies, amplifying a ridge over the Midwest and putting the Great Plains under southwest flow. Saturday highs will reach into the mid to upper 80s. Sunday and beyond, forecasted high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s to low 100s. Heat index values for many areas will range from 96-105. Southwest flow remains over us through the extended forecast. A few disturbances are expected to move into the plains, which could ultimately give us a chance for a few showers/storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 VFR conditions persist through much of the forecast period. Northwest winds become northerly after 00Z, before becoming light and variable this evening. Model guidance continues to show some support for shower/storm activity after 00Z; however, chances have decreased somewhat. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
000 FXUS63 KGID 241744 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool and semi-active weather pattern continues for another couple of days. - While the overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty marginal, a few strong/severe storms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening hours both today and Thursday. - Return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week. - After a few hot, dry and breezy days, a chance for thunderstorms returns to the local area during the evening hours next Monday and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms rolling off the high plains impacted mainly western and southern portions of the forecast area overnight as they weakened after moving into a more stable environment. Additional activity west of the local area early this morning is expected to follow suit, weakening as they reach our western fringes, bringing mainly clouds and some isolated showers/non-severe thunderstorms through the morning hours. Later today, expect mostly dry conditions to overtake the local area, albeit an isolated thunderstorm or two (as indicated in some of the CAMS) cannot be completely ruled out. That said, the better chances for storms will come during the very late afternoon through the evening hours as the next upper level disturbance begins to impact the local area. While instability is still fairly limiting, there remains sufficient shear to justify at least the possibility for a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm this evening/tonight, so continued with this mention in the morning HWO. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will then continue across the local area through early Friday morning, before the upper level pattern begins to shift - resulting in upper level ridging, warmer temperatures, dry weather and increasing breezes over the upcoming weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 A shortwave disturbance moved through the area this morning and early afternoon and brought a broad swath of light to moderate rain showers. Fortunately, instability was lacking with this system and kept severe weather potential at bay. Subsidence behind this wave has allowed for some clearing skies and temperatures to rise into the 70s. This clearing may allow for a few showers or weak storms to pop up through early evening, but lack of stronger instability and lingering effects of the subsidence should keep most locations dry. Next few days look to feature the same general mid to upper level pattern in which an upper low spins over the northern Plains into Upper MS Valley and ridging builds over the SW and W Coast. This should lead to zonal to NW flow for the central Plains. Modest and moist upslope flow should allow for daily thunderstorm development along the High Plains each afternoon, which will then roll E/SE during the evening and overnight hours with the mean flow and along a stout instability gradient. Appears the primary instability axis will remain mostly W/SW/S of the area each of the next few days, which should keep our severe threat fairly limited. Appears the best potential for scattered to widespread rain and embedded storms will be with a disturbance Wed night into Thu AM. It`s late June and there`s at least SOME elevated instability and shear, so the various Marginal Risks on the SPC outlooks make sense...but again, not expecting anything real organized or widespread for our local forecast area. Upper pattern will undergo some changes late in the week, and especially this weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridging slides east in response to a new trough developing along the West Coast. So after several days of seasonably cool highs in the 70s to lower 80s, should see a significant jump in temps by Friday and esp. over the weekend. In fact, latest NBM gives widespread mid 80s to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday - which will feel quite steamy given seasonably high dew points currently forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F. The relatively moist ground from recent rainfall and evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn will probably support even higher values in the low to mid 70s for areas E of Hwy 281 towards the Hwy 81 corridor. Not sure this uptick in heat and humidity will necessarily rise to advisory levels (heat indices of 105+), and there will be some southerly breezes to help bring SOME relief...but it`s a summer weekend, so keep in mind for those outdoor activities. Generally speaking, the upper pattern may become more supportive for severe thunderstorms at some point in the Saturday night (low level jet/warm air advection) to Tuesday time frame as the western trough migrates into the Rockies and eventually the central and northern Plains. This low will likely force at least a weak to moderate cold front into the region Sunday night or Monday...which could then linger into Tuesday per recent deterministic and ensemble trends. This general evolution should support SOME overlap in seasonably strong deep layer shear associated with ejecting mid/upper jet streak and large reservoir of strong to extreme instability, somewhere in the region during this time frame. Now, does this overlap occur locally or perhaps further N...and what exactly will be the timing of the upper trough and surface fronts...these details still need to be worked out and are critical to pinning down sensible weather details this time of year. Machine learning guidance supports the idea of 2-3 day window of increased severe weather potential, but remains quite broad in it`s footprint, and muted on any higher end probabilities. Again, something to monitor as we approach the busy summer weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered cloud cover at both terminals this afternoon. This evening into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected to enter the area from the west. The best chance for thunderstorms will be at KEAR between 02-06z. There is a fairly tight east-west gradient in thunderstorm activity, and while KGRI has the potential for thunderstorms, it is less than that of KEAR overnight. After the initial thunderstorms some stratiform precip may impact the terminals and linger overnight before dissipating before sunrise. Winds will remain light and variable, and when slightly stronger with a easterly component. There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms beyond this TAF period into Thursday afternoon and evening, but this looks scattered in nature, and not well organized. Ceilings will be be VFR for much of the period, but some MVFR ceilings are possible with the thunderstorms. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Billings Wright
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