Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

880
FXUS63 KOAX 241055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms mainly over northeast Nebraska
  tonight.

- The next substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives early in
  the day Thursday. The highest chance for storms (40-70%)
  looks to occur across central and southern Nebraska.

- Very warm and humid conditions return this weekend with the
  Heat Index likely exceeding 100 degrees starting Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A cold front is moving into northeast Nebraska this evening with
a few showers struggling to develop along the front. Despite
1000-1500J/kg of SBCAPE, storms are struggling possibly due to
confluence on the nose of the right exit region of the Jet
Streak inhibiting weak forcing along the cold front. Could also
be more neutral lapse rates from 850-700mb which weak forcing is
struggling to make it through. Whatever the case, with the front
weakening even further through the night, rain chances are
dropping off quite a bit with little-to-no rain expected outside
of a few isolated showers in northeast Nebraska.

Looking at the broad upper-level pattern, we have weak ridging
over the Desert Southwest with nearly zonal flow over the
Northern Plains, only slightly oriented northwest to southeast.
Flow stays fairly zonal through the end of the week. With this
pattern, we watch closely for shortwaves bringing periodic
chances for showers and storms. On Wednesday afternoon we`ll be
watching storm development over western Nebraska, though the
northwesterly component in the steering flow should keep these
tracking southeast into Kansas Wednesday night. Meanwhile, we
stay mostly dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Thursday another shortwave will help to flatten the steering
flow leading to more west-east storm movement, but guidance has
tended to develop this next MCS to our south, mainly over
north-central and northeast Kansas. This will keep a 20-40
percent chance of showers and storms though overnight Thursday
into early Friday for a portion of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Friday looks mostly dry as ridging starts to build over Nebraska
into western Iowa. A stronger trough moving into the PacNW helps
to buckle the upper-level flow building a ridge over the
Northern Plains. This ridge only grows going into the weekend
as the trough over the PacNW deepens along the West Coast
amplifying the downstream ridge. As this occurs, we`ll see
increased warm-air and moisture advection into the region
leading to starkly warmer temperatures with highs back in the
mid-to-upper 80s on Saturday and low-to-mid 90s on Sunday.
Humidity will become a concern too, with heat indices getting
into the upper 90s to low 100s by the afternoon on Sunday. The
hot, humid weather continues into early next week with rain
chances staying north of our area through Monday. Our next
chance of storms will be possible as a shortwave rides over the
ridge Monday night into early Tuesday, though placement of this
system is still somewhat up-in-the-air due to this being
farther out in the forecast period.

Next week is just looking darn hot with this initial ridge over
the area early next week, only to be replaced by another ridge
building up to our west later in the week. While we could still
see periodic overnight MCS development help to bring chances for
rainfall, weather during the day is looking to stay hot and
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions favored through most of the period, but may need
to keep an eye out for patchy MVFR fog early in the period,
especially at OFK. In addition, guidance suggests shower and
storm potential after 01Z, but there remains lots of spread in
timing and location. For what it`s worth, some of the latest,
guidance hints at potential for all sites, though think LNK is
the most likely to see any notable TS activity and MVFR/IFR
conditions this evening. Otherwise, winds will be out of the
northwest to north, generally under 10 kts outside of any
showers/storms. Expect lingering clouds around 5000-7000 ft agl
throughout most of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

035
FXUS63 KGID 241136
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and semi-active weather pattern continues for
  another couple of days.

- While the overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty
  marginal, a few strong/severe storms will be possible during
  the late afternoon/evening hours both today and Thursday.

- Return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity this
  weekend into early next week.

- After a few hot, dry and breezy days, a chance for
  thunderstorms returns to the local area during the evening
  hours next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms rolling off the high plains impacted
mainly western and southern portions of the forecast area
overnight as they weakened after moving into a more stable
environment. Additional activity west of the local area early
this morning is expected to follow suit, weakening as they
reach our western fringes, bringing mainly clouds and some
isolated showers/non-severe thunderstorms through the morning
hours.

Later today, expect mostly dry conditions to overtake the local
area, albeit an isolated thunderstorm or two (as indicated in
some of the CAMS) cannot be completely ruled out. That said, the
better chances for storms will come during the very late
afternoon through the evening hours as the next upper level
disturbance begins to impact the local area. While instability
is still fairly limiting, there remains sufficient shear to
justify at least the possibility for a strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm this evening/tonight, so continued with this
mention in the morning HWO.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will then continue
across the local area through early Friday morning, before the
upper level pattern begins to shift - resulting in upper level
ridging, warmer temperatures, dry weather and increasing breezes
over the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A shortwave disturbance moved through the area this morning and
early afternoon and brought a broad swath of light to moderate
rain showers. Fortunately, instability was lacking with this
system and kept severe weather potential at bay. Subsidence
behind this wave has allowed for some clearing skies and
temperatures to rise into the 70s. This clearing may allow for a
few showers or weak storms to pop up through early evening, but
lack of stronger instability and lingering effects of the
subsidence should keep most locations dry.

Next few days look to feature the same general mid to upper
level pattern in which an upper low spins over the northern
Plains into Upper MS Valley and ridging builds over the SW and W
Coast. This should lead to zonal to NW flow for the central
Plains. Modest and moist upslope flow should allow for daily
thunderstorm development along the High Plains each afternoon,
which will then roll E/SE during the evening and overnight hours
with the mean flow and along a stout instability gradient.
Appears the primary instability axis will remain mostly W/SW/S
of the area each of the next few days, which should keep our
severe threat fairly limited. Appears the best potential for
scattered to widespread rain and embedded storms will be with a
disturbance Wed night into Thu AM. It`s late June and there`s at
least SOME elevated instability and shear, so the various
Marginal Risks on the SPC outlooks make sense...but again, not
expecting anything real organized or widespread for our local
forecast area.

Upper pattern will undergo some changes late in the week, and
especially this weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridging
slides east in response to a new trough developing along the
West Coast. So after several days of seasonably cool highs in
the 70s to lower 80s, should see a significant jump in temps by
Friday and esp. over the weekend. In fact, latest NBM gives
widespread mid 80s to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday - which
will feel quite steamy given seasonably high dew points
currently forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F. The
relatively moist ground from recent rainfall and
evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn will probably
support even higher values in the low to mid 70s for areas E of
Hwy 281 towards the Hwy 81 corridor. Not sure this uptick in
heat and humidity will necessarily rise to advisory levels (heat
indices of 105+), and there will be some southerly breezes to
help bring SOME relief...but it`s a summer weekend, so keep in
mind for those outdoor activities.

Generally speaking, the upper pattern may become more supportive
for severe thunderstorms at some point in the Saturday night
(low level jet/warm air advection) to Tuesday time frame as the
western trough migrates into the Rockies and eventually the
central and northern Plains. This low will likely force at
least a weak to moderate cold front into the region Sunday night
or Monday...which could then linger into Tuesday per recent
deterministic and ensemble trends. This general evolution should
support SOME overlap in seasonably strong deep layer shear
associated with ejecting mid/upper jet streak and large
reservoir of strong to extreme instability, somewhere in the
region during this time frame. Now, does this overlap occur
locally or perhaps further N...and what exactly will be the
timing of the upper trough and surface fronts...these details
still need to be worked out and are critical to pinning down
sensible weather details this time of year. Machine learning
guidance supports the idea of 2-3 day window of increased
severe weather potential, but remains quite broad in it`s
footprint, and muted on any higher end probabilities. Again,
something to monitor as we approach the busy summer weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through at least the mid-
afternoon hours before chances for SHRAs/TSRAs begin to increase
across the local area. Could see some light BR at either
terminal for the next couple of hours, but this should be very
temporary, and given the mid level cloud cover moving in
overhead, opted to not include any mention of BR despite 11Z ob
at KGRI indicating some MVFR VSBYs.  Winds overall will be
light...generally less than 8 KTS this morning...becoming
predominantly northerly to northeasterly aft 24/15Z. Aft
24/22Z...expect increasing chances for SHRAs/TSRAs and have a
prob30 group and at least temporary MVFR CIGS thereafter.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion