46°F
Updated:
10/21/2025
08:06:15am

Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
639 FXUS63 KOAX 211048 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 548 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds restrengthen this morning with gusts up to 35-45 mph. - The wind combined with minimum relative humidity of 25-35% will lead to increased wildfire concerns this afternoon in areas of ongoing harvest operations. - Widespread frost and more localized freezing conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings. - A chance (20-40% PoPs) of showers Thursday night into Friday across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 Skies are clear this morning with west-northwesterly winds starting to increase again over the last hour or two. Another windy day in store for today. I`m not going to harp over why again, just to say we have potential again for agricultural fires this afternoon with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph and humidity dropping to 25-30% across much of southeast Nebraska, 35 to 40 percent for far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa. Highs will peak this afternoon in the upper 50s to low 60s. A dynamic trough is moving across the region today keeping the strong winds around through early this afternoon. As it slides off to the east later today, the pressure gradient starts to relax allowing winds to start to weaken. We`ll see winds drop off mainly after 5 PM and continue to weaken through the overnight hours. As a ridge builds in on Wednesday we see winds become mostly calm by Wednesday morning under clear skies. This will allow for efficient radiational cooling with temperatures approaching freezing across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Expect significant areas of frost to develop Wednesday morning, especially across northeast Nebraska where temperatures will drop to right around or even a degree or two below freezing. With high pressure in place through the day on Wednesday, we`ll see temperatures warm back into the 60s through the afternoon, but another calm, clear night will lead to an even better chance for widespread frost, potentially a freeze Thursday morning. The NBM has only about a 20% chance for temperatures below freezing Wednesday morning across northeast Nebraska, while on Thursday morning this chance increases to around 50%. Towards the end of the week we see the upper-level flow pick back up a cut-off Low off the coast of southern California and bring it inland into the Southern Plains. This will bring rain chances to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Friday as we may get clipped by the northern fringe of the shower and storm activity associated with the passing Low to our south. Not expecting anything severe, and there will likely be a sharp cutoff of those who see rain and those who see nothing somewhere south of I-80. Another ridge brings high pressure back in over the weekend, leading to quiet weather with seasonable temperatures Saturday and Sunday. The next dynamic trough looks to arrive on Monday bringing back a chance for showers and storms as well as strong northwesterly winds behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Winds are already ramping up out of the west-northwest and will turn more northwesterly as they continue to ramp up this morning. We`ll see gusts 30 to 35kt through this afternoon, with winds starting to weaken around 22-23Z this evening. Winds will continue to weaken through tonight becoming light generally less than 5kt towards the end of the TAF period 12Z Wednesday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
077 FXUS63 KGID 211141 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 641 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds, with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH, will combine with low relative humidity values to result in near critical fire weather concerns across the local area again this afternoon. - As winds diminish across the area this evening, temperatures will plummet, and widespread frost formation is anticipated by Wednesday morning. A frost advisory goes into effect at 10 PM tonight and will continue through 10 AM Wednesday morning. Widespread frost will also be possible to start the day Thursday. - A chance for rain and a few thunderstorms returns to the local area Thursday evening through Saturday morning. The focus of any precipitation will be across north central Kansas, with diminishing chances across south central Nebraska. - A potentially stronger weather system could bring down some colder air early next week, along with some better precipitation chances late Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 Steady westerly winds of 10-15 MPH continued across the local area overnight, helping to keeps temperatures mostly in the 40s despite clear skies. With an area of low pressure moving across Minnesota, a fairly tight pressure gradient extends into central Nebraska this morning, which should support another breezy/windy start to the day once the sun comes up later this morning. This area of low pressure is then forecast to track east through the afternoon hours, with gradually diminishing winds across the local area from west to east as a result. As we then transition into the evening hours, winds should become very light area-wide, and these light winds combined with clear skies should allow temperatures to plummet early in the night, with widespread frost formation anticipated by Wednesday morning. While a few spots will likely fall below freezing early Wednesday morning, guidance suggests this will be limited to the typically coldest spots, and sided against a freeze watch/warning at this time. That said, if guidance becomes just a bit colder, a freeze warning may eventually be needed for portions of the local area. With weak ridging transitioning across the area aloft behind this system, continued light winds and clear skies are expected through Thursday morning, with another round of widespread frost formation anticipated to start the day Thursday. Thereafter...an upper level low moving from the four corners region into the central/southern plains will begin to spread its influence across the local area as early as Thursday evening, bringing a return to some unsettled weather to at least parts of the local area. Keeping in mind the track of this upper low will determine shower/T-storm coverage, models have converged their solutions and trended the track further south, which may eventually mean much of south central Nebraska will be dry over this period with just some scattered showers/a few t-storms limited to our Kansas counties. Behind this system a stronger/more organized upper level low is anticipated to deepen across the central Plains early next week, potentially pulling cooler air from the north on its backside along with supporting more widespread showers/limited t-storm coverage. Still plenty of time to hammer out the details of this system, but ensembles indicate strong winds, cooler temperatures (albeit still looking above freezing) and unsettled weather may impact the area early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions expected at both terminals through the period with clear skies and good VSBYs. Looking at VWP this morning...strong LLWS can be seen across the area and it is likely impacting KGRI and to a lesser extent KEAR at this hour. This LLWS should diminish over the next hour or two as surface winds increase...with NW winds near 25 KTS+ possible from the late morning through afternoon hours. Winds should diminish around 22/02Z when they become light and variable...with no expected repeat of LLWS tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...SR AVIATION...SR
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