Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

161
FXUS63 KOAX 221051
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
  through Friday morning. Another broken line of storms is
  expected later Friday with a strong to severe storm or two
  possible. Hail is the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry
  conditions expected through the holiday weekend.

- Rain chances return by the middle of next week, though timing
  and coverage remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Friday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis depict an upper-level
trough moving from the Front Range into the central and northern
Plains, maintaining generally southwesterly flow aloft across the
region. Increasing moisture transport and forcing for ascent have
led to shower and thunderstorm development this evening, which will
become more widespread overnight. PoPs range from 75-100% and peak
at most locations during the mid to late morning hours (8AM-11AM).
Enough elevated instability is present for a few embedded
thunderstorms through the period.

Showers will clear from west to east late Friday morning into early
Friday afternoon, with highs reaching the 60s to low 70s. By late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the main vorticity maximum
will pivot across the Dakotas and push a cold front through the
area. A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the front as it moves west to east across the forecast
area. The stronger shear and better instability will remain
displaced from one another, limiting overall severe weather
potential. Instability will be maximized across southeast NE
and southwest IA, where 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to
develop, while higher values remain south of the NE/KS border.
Meanwhile, the stronger bulk shear will remain north of the
NE/SD border, with only around 25-30 kts extending into the
local area. With this setup, ingredients may be sufficient for a
strong to severe storm or two across far eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa. Hodographs do support the potential for a
low topped supercell or two. This round of storms should move
through quickly, with precipitation expected to exit the area
before midnight.

CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in placing the highest
rainfall totals over the next 24 hours in swatch from northeast NE
into northwest IA. HREF guidance bring a 70-100% probability of at
least 0.50 inches of precipitation across northeast NE, with
probabilities decreasing farther south. There is also a 50-75%
probability of at least 1 inch of rainfall across portions of
northeast Nebraska. Localized pockets may push towards 1.50
inches. A welcome sight after the area missed out on a lot of
meaningful rainfall so far this season.

Saturday through Monday...

A warming trend will take hold through the holiday weekend as mid-
level riding and surface high pressure slide into the area. Highs
are expected to reach the low to mid 70s on Saturday, low 80s on
Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Generally dry conditions are
expected through the holiday weekend. A weak vorticity maximum
passing by to the north may bring a stray light shower or two on
Monday. Moisture will be very limited, so the holiday is not
expected to be a washout by any means, but a low chance (around 10-
15%) for a light shower will remain possible early Monday.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The large-scale pattern becomes somewhat uncertain next week as a
trough moves onshore across the western CONUS. Long-range guidance
diverges on the speed and placement of this features as it
progresses eastward, leading to uncertainty in the timing and
location of precipitation chances. For now, highs generally remain
in the mid 80s, with intermittent 30-50% PoPs Tuesday through
Friday. Expected further refinements to precipitation timing as the
period approaches. No particular day currently stand out for severe
weather, as more meaningful moisture advection and forcing for
ascent don`t arrive until at least midweek and appear maximized to
our west for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions continue to impact
terminals this morning as a complex of showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms pushes east northeast into the area.
Have continued mentions of -SHRA at KOFK with IFR ceilings until
noon and gradual improvement in conditions to MVFR and VFR
expected by the late afternoon/early evening. KOMA and KLNK will
see more -SHRA late this morning, with -TSRA forecast to move
through these terminals in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will
persist with this activity before slowly lifting after 00z.
Uncertainty remains with how far north storms may develop toward
KOFK, so have left mentions out at that terminal but will
continue to monitor and assess trends. These afternoon storms
could be strong with hail and gusty winds the primary threats.

Southeast winds will become gusty this morning at 20 to 30 kts
with the strongest gusts expected at KOFK. Gustiness subsides by
the late afternoon as a front moves through and switches winds
to the south southwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

232
FXUS63 KGID 221134
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Swath of showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing east
  across the area tonight...can`t rule out a few stronger storms
  with small hail/gusty winds.

- During the daytime hours today, the main upper level
  disturbance and accompanying surface frontal boundary slide
  across the Central Plains...gradually focusing the better
  shower/storm chances east with time. Chances will end from
  west to east...with the entire area dry by early evening.

- The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is currently dry...but the
  upper level pattern remains generally zonal, with the
  potential for periodic disturbances and scattered
  precipitation chances around the region. Will see how models
  trend (there are differences) in the coming days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Currently...

A broad swath of showers and thunderstorms continues to
gradually work its way east across the Central
Plains...bringing some welcomed moisture to the area, especially
western areas which have been drier and missed out on some of
the heavier recent rains. This precipitation is being driven by
an upper level trough axis extending southward out of central
Canada through the High Plains...with satellite data showing a
couple of separate areas of low pressure spinning over southern
Saskatchewan and eastern Wyoming. This activity will continue
sliding east through the rest of the overnight hours..can`t rule
out a few stronger storms with small hail/gusty winds, but
models show instability generally around 500 j/kg, so not
anticipating severe weather. Depending on where some stronger
storms develop/move, not out of the question some rainfall
amounts around 2 inches could occur. At the surface, the
forecast area continues to sit with southeasterly winds,
generally around 10-15 MPH...with the main area of low
pressure/cold front still off to our west along the High Plains.

Daytime hours today into tonight...

Main forecast concern through the very short term will remain
with the ongoing showers/thunderstorms and timing their
departure off to the east. As time passes through the morning
hours, short term/hi- res models show the better chances for
precipitation becoming more focused along the surface frontal
boundary. Model timing in generally good agreement with the
timing of that boundary...getting it roughly halfway through the
forecast area around midday, then to or just beyond the HWY 81
corridor during the late afternoon hours. Across eastern
portions of the forecast area mid-late afternoon, ahead of that
sfc frontal boundary, models show a narrow axis of higher
instability lifting northward...with MLCAPE values around 1000
j/kg not out of the question, especially for locations closer
to/south of the NE-KS state line. Not out of the question that a
few storms could be on the stronger side...at this point given
the timing, the better potential for any severe storms looks to
focus just off to our ESE, though if things slow down any it
could be a close call. Precipitation chances look to slide to
our east by early evening...forecast through the overnight hours
is dry. Ahead of the front, winds turn more southerly and may
be gusty at times...with the passage of front ushering a switch
in winds to the northwest, which will also be on the
breezy/gusty side...gusts near 20-25 MPH are not out of the
question. With this precip and the frontal boundary being a
daytime passage...confidence in high temperatures for the day is
on the lower side, especially for central areas...and even
being this closer there are still some notable differences
between models. Forecast has WNW areas looking to mainly be in
the 60s, with ESE areas able to climb into the 70s prior to the
front.

Memorial Day Holiday weekend and on...

The forecast for Saturday through Memorial Day is currently
dry...but at least small precipitation chances will be lingering
around nearby. Models showing the upper level low/trough axis
currently over eastern WY pushing east into the Dakotas
today/tonight...but another push of shortwave troughing moves
through the Central Plains Sat-Sat night. Models show scattered
spots of precipitation around the region during this Sat-Sat
night period...mainly outside of the forecast area, but
especially for western and southern areas, it may be close. For
Sunday and Memorial Day...while the official forecast is
currently dry, it`s not a slam dunk guarantee. Models show the
upper level pattern being generally westerly, leaving the door
open for any potential shortwave disturbances to move through.
Models do differ...some keep things dry, others show the
potential for some late day-evening activity. Will see how
models trend over the coming days. As far as temperatures
go...highs for Saturday are forecast to climb into the low-mid
70s, then into the mid-upper 80s by Memorial Day.

Scattered shower/storm chances return to the forecast for
Tuesday on through the rest of the week...with models showing
the upper level pattern turning back to the SSW as a large area
of low pressure digs through the western CONUS. Highs Tue-Fri
remain mainly in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This afternoon-Friday...

Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest
Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough
begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to
gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor
instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The
most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the
overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and
northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest
rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that
pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning
hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the
front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid-
late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop
along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway
81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east
of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10"
across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1"
across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble
guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the
area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of
rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across
southeastern portions of the area.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the
low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%)
for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday
afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that
develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak
into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday
evening.

Sunday Onwards....

Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into
early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly
winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves
into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional
chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this
troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details
are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main timeframe of concern for this TAF period will come in
roughly the first 6hrs. Broad area of showers and thunderstorms
has been working its way east all night...that trend will
continue through the daytime hours today. The potential for
heaviest precipitation looks to be in the first 3 hours, with
more of a VC coverage from mid-morning on. Expecting precip
chances to end for the terminal areas around 18Z, with dry
conditions currently forecast for the remainder of the period.
Along with the precip chances, the potential for MVFR-IFR
(perhaps brief LIFR) conditions will continue...with improvement
as we get toward midday...with VFR conditions eventually
returning. Current timing has that at 18Z...confidence in that
exact timing isn`t high. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary and
with ongoing precip...winds early this morning are variable in
direction. The main surface boundary will gradually push east
this morning, eventually ushering in WNW winds to the terminal
areas...some gusts near 20 MPH will be possible through the
early-mid afternoon hours, then tapering late in the day and
overnight, turning back more westerly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion