Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

976
FXUS63 KOAX 111121
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ice remains on the Loup and Elkhorn, keeping portions of the
  previous Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM Wednesday.

- Temperatures are on the climb, with highs today in the 40s/50s
  only set to improve through the next 7 days.

- Chances for rain glance the area Thursday and Saturday, with
  neither one expected to bring more than 0.1" to any one
  location.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 908 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Quiet night tonight with a few high clouds and light winds out
of the north or northwest. Satellite shows a low pressure system
over the Red River Valley with a moisture plume developed along
an axis of convergence to the north along the Kansas-Nebraska
state line. Out west we see a ridge starting to develop over the
Four-Corners Region which will amplify over the next 24 hours
across the central CONUS. This will lead to warmer temperatures
on Thursday with a shift to southerly winds across the region.
This ridge will remain in place through the end of the week,
keeping mild temperatures in the forecast going into the
weekend.

A weak disturbance will develop a broad area of low pressure
across the Central Plains tomorrow night into early Thursday.
Confluence in the upper-level flow won`t allow for this
disturbance to develop into anything strong, but models suggest
there may be just enough for low 20-30% chances for rain near
the Nebraska-South Dakota Wednesday night as well as a wind
shift back to northerly on Thursday evening.

Late in the week the ridge over the region will only build and
advect in more warm air as a deepening trough pushes into the
Desert Southwest. With this, we`ll see daytime highs Friday and
Saturday warm into the upper 50s to near 60. The aforementioned
trough moves eastward just to our south over the weekend,
keeping the bulk of any precipitation to our south. However,
several ensemble members suggest portions of southeast Nebraska
and far southwest Iowa may get clipped by rain on the north side
of this system on Saturday. Rain chances sit around 20-35%
mainly south of I-80.

Another ridge builds up over our area behind the trough as we
go into early next week. Another strong trough deepens along
the coast of California pushing a strong subtropical jet streak
northeastward into the Desert Southwest. This will lead to
enhanced warm-air advection out ahead of the trough into the
Central Plains. With this, we`re likely looking at another
couple days much warmer than normal, potentially reaching back
up to 70 on Tuesday. Though beyond this forecast period, it does
look like the warmest day of the week next week at this time
will be Wednesday when we could see temperatures get up into the
low-to-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period with clear skies this
morning. High level clouds begin moving into the region around
mid to late morning. Winds are currently calm at KOMA and KLNK
and will become southwesterly around 5-10kts by mid-morning.
Winds at all three terminals will become southerly by mid to
late afternoon. There is a 20% chance of a few light showers
after 00Z at KOFK, with little impacts expected. KOMA and KLNK
are currently expected to stay dry tonight.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 1 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ016-017-031-
     032-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

418
FXUS63 KGID 111155
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
555 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperature-wise: Solidly above normal temps will continue
  throughout the 7-day forecast, with highs at least into the
  50s through Saturday, then more widespread 60s Sunday-
  Tuesday. Overnight lows mainly upper 20s-mid 30s through Sat
  night, then more so mid 30s-mid 40s especially Sun-mon nights.

- Although the extent and duration of the threat is likely
  getting increasingly-limited in area and shorter-on-time to
  occur, at least localized ice jam flooding remains a
  possibility mainly along the Loup, North Loup and Platte River
  downstream of Grand Island (see separate HYDROLOGY section
  below for more details).

- Other than any potential localized flooding, the only shorter
  term weather concern is the possibility for a few hours of
  "near-critical" fire weather conditions this afternoon
  primarily in our extreme western forecast area (CWA).

- Precipitation-wise, the vast majority of the 7-day forecast
  remains dry. However, models continue to suggest at least
  "some" rain potential Friday night-Saturday, with perhaps the
  latest model data suggesting a slightly better chance for rain
  (especially for our southern counties) compared to forecasts
  12-24 hours ago.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST:
1) Although our latest forecast has continued to keep measurable
rain chances on the lower side (20-40%) within our CWA for
Friday night-Saturday, models continue to remain frustratingly-
inconsistent over the past few days regarding whether our
forecast area gets missed altogether, or perhaps catches the
northern edge of rain potential with a system tracking mainly to
our south. If anything, the very latest 00Z/06Z models runs
(including ECMWF/GFS/NAM) seem to be trending up on at least
light rain amounts making it up into our forecast area, but
still favoring our southern counties (especially KS) more so
than our northern counties.

2) Although IF the aforementioned system does indeed track a bit
farther north into our area for Saturday, temps could be held
down a bit, but the high temperature forecast for especially
Sunday-Monday has trended up several degrees from previous
forecasts 12-24 hours ago (greater potential for widespread
60s).

NOTE: for additional information regarding the forecast beyond
Thursday please refer to our next full forecast discussion that
will be issued this afternoon.


-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER/TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through
 Thursday):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
Although satellite reveals transient bands of mid-high level
clouds passing through mainly our western/southern counties,
overall the majority of our CWA has remained a bit clearer than
expected here 24 hour ago. These mainly clear skies, in
combination with very light breezes (mainly 5 MPH at most)
promoted by an area of surface high pressure (around 1029
millibars) currently centered over our CWA, has allowed
overnight temperatures to drop at least a few (if not several)
degrees colder than earlier forecast...with the majority of our
CWA on track to bottom out in the teens-low 20s (typically
colder spots such as Ord airport have gotten down to at least
14).


- TODAY (similar temps to yesterday...opposite wind direction):
Although there will be varying amounts of transient mid-high
level cloud cover (overall-highest cloud coverage likely
favoring our northern counties), it will be a dry day under
generally partly cloudy skies. At the surface, the high
pressure/ridge axis will gradually depart off to our southeast,
allowing very light and somewhat westerly breezes to start the
day, to gradually pick up in speed and turn southerly as the day
wears on. Winds will not be truly strong this afternoon by any
means, but sustained speeds in our eastern half will generally
be around 10 MPH (gusts to around 15 MPH), while a bit stronger
in our western half (and especially far west) with sustained
speeds around 15 MPH/gusts 20+ MPH. High temperatures will be
remarkably similar to yesterday, with most of our CWA aimed
52-55 degrees. Fortunately, winds will not be strong enough and
relative humidity (RH) will not be low enough to cause outright-
critical fire weather concerns. However, our far western
counties (mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could reach near-critical
thresholds due to a combo of both gusts 20+ MPH and RH down to
25% or slightly lower.


- TONIGHT (maybe a few sprinkles try catching our far north?):
Although the vast majority of (and probably our entire) CWA will
surely remain dry, mid-high level clouds will be on the increase
in response to a subtle upper wave moving in from the west-
northwest. The overall thickest clouds should favor our northern
counties, where a few rogue sprinkles probably cannot be ruled
out. However, have left out of the forecast for now with
slightly better potential for any sprinkles/very light rain to
focus slightly north-northeast of our CWA altogether. Otherwise,
breezes tonight will average southerly 5-10 MPH, which in tandem
with increased clouds will keep low temperatures from falling as
far as this morning...with most places expected to drop no lower
than 28-32 degrees.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME:
While especially the morning will probably still feature a fair
amount of mid-high clouds, cloud coverage should thin out
somewhat for the afternoon, making for an overall pleasant day
with high temperatures a bit warmer than today (most areas mid-
upper 50s) and also winds lighter than today (mainly 10 MPH or
less). Wind direction will be a bit variable however, starting
the day southerly, but then turning more northerly behind a
very weak front in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cold front crossed the local area early this morning bringing
modestly cooler temperatures, breezy north winds, and variable
cloud cover today. Despite high temperatures topping out "only"
around 50, temperatures remain well above seasonal norms for
this time of year.

With an area of surface high pressure sliding south across the
area tonight, expect temperatures to plummet as winds diminish,
but for a mix of mid/high level cloud cover to help mitigate
their potential drop. Even so, this will likely be the coolest
night of the period with most locations bottoming out in the
lower to mid 20s.

As high pressure aloft then begins to amplify across the plains
in response to a west coast low tomorrow, expect temperatures
to climb further (by 2-5 degrees) across the local area, with
variable cloud cover potentially holding down afternoon temps a
bit from their potential. That said, as temperatures climb and
southerly winds increase in return flow around the surface high
tomorrow afternoon, could see a few hours of elevated to near
critical fire weather concerns across our extreme west (mainly
west of HWY 183) during the afternoon hours, so opted to
introduce this potential into the HWO.

Thereafter...the west coast low is expected to move onshore
across southern California/Baja later this week, eventually
sliding south of the local area over the weekend. Originally
this system was expected to track further north, spreading some
precip across the central Plains, but trends have kept this
system south, and am not overly optimistic that much
precipitation, if any, locally, will be realized. Will continue
to monitor in case the system tries to shift north, but based on
the last couple of days, the blended pops of 15-40% across our
area Friday afternoon into Saturday look plenty generous.

Of notable difference from the forecast a few days ago,
temperatures continue to trend upward toward early next week as
another ridge of high pressure builds across the plains. This
could eventually lead to temperatures returning to the 70s early
next week before the subsequent west coast low traverses the
local area mid-week (likely dry) dropping temperatures back down
into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Despite a fair amount of mid-high level cloud coverage ranging
from SCT-BKN, any potential ceiling should be no lower than
roughly 10K ft. AGL, resulting in a very high confidence VFR
forecast throughout the period.

Right away this morning, winds will be light and from somewhat
variable direction as a surface ridge axis departs. However, by
16Z a more consistent south-southwesterly direction will
establish as speeds pick up slightly, paving the way for a
slightly breezy afternoon with southerly sustained speeds around
10-12KT/gusts at least 16-18KT. This evening and overnight,
light-but-steady southerly breezes will prevail with speeds
mainly at-or-below 9KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 459 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Localized threat for ice jam flooding continues along the
  Platte River (downstream of Grand Island), along with portions
  of especially the North Loup/Loup Rivers primarily in
  Howard/Nance counties:

As of this writing (415 AM Tuesday), we are not aware of
ongoing flooding from ice jams and in our forecast area, and
have no active Flood Advisories/Warnings in effect (these would
only be issued for confirmed flooding that could cause at least
minor issues to property/roads). That being said, with another
day of above normal temperatures coming up, the threat for
localized ice jam flooding cannot be ruled out along those
portions of the Platte and Loup River systems where ice is
still present and gradually breaking up/moving downstream.
Although the smattering of available webcams and automated river
gages obviously don`t tell the "full story" of what is
happening along the entire stretch of rivers, the presence of
"wiggly"/slightly fluctuating water stages on gage data indicate
that at least some ice breakup/movement is present especially
along the North Loup/Loup Rivers through Howard/Nance counties
(most evidenced by gage data near St. Paul and Genoa).

Due to uncertainty regarding exactly how much ice remains on the
aforementioned rivers (versus open channels), it is challenging
to pinpoint "exactly" how much longer a localized ice jam threat
might persist. At least for now, we will keep a Special Weather
Statement going through this afternoon for a handful of our
counties mainly along the North Loup/Loup Rivers and also the
Platte River downstream of Grand Island. Whether this Statement
gets extended beyond this afternoon will depend on river gage
data trends today, and especially on any "ground truth" reports
we might receive from emergency managers, spotters etc.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion