23°F
Updated:
1/22/2025
02:07:00am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
245 FXUS63 KOAX 220733 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 133 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flurries and light snow will possible through the day today. Snowfall totals are expected to range from a trace to a few tenths of an inch. - Temperatures will increase into this weekend with highs generally in the 30s. Highs in the 40s are possible by the start of next week. - No additional precipitation chances are currently in the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Short Term (Today through Friday) Water vapor analysis this morning displays a broad, positively tilted trough over much of the CONUS. Southerly low-level flow has continued to increase temperatures from the bitter, arctic cold felt just 24 hours prior. Lows this morning are expected in the teens, a 20 to 30 degree increase from yesterdays lows. Afternoon highs are expected in the 30s. A shortwave disturbance ejecting out of Canada and into the northern and central Plains will bring a chance for flurries and light snow today. Snow chances will begin in northeast NE early this morning and progress southeast into the afternoon. Moisture will be limited with this event, as QPF values are capped at a few hundredths of an inch. Pops will taper off this evening, though a few flurries will be possible into the overnight period. Snowfall totals will be limited, with most only seeing a trace to a few tenths of an inch. The disturbance will also work to push a cold front through the area during the overnight period, dropping lows into the positive single digits and Thursday morning wind chills into the negative single digits. The post frontal air mass will be felt on Thursday as highs top out in the teens and 20s. Friday will start with morning lows again in the single digits. However, an arctic high passing by the region will bring southerly low-level flow and warm air advection back to the area. This will bring highs into the 30s and low 40s. Long Term (Saturday & Beyond) This weekend into early next week, the upper level pattern will be dominated by troughing over the Hudson Bay region and ridging over the western CONUS. This flow regime will leave us with predominately dry conditions and mild temperatures. Highs this weekend are expected in the 30s with the 40s possible through the start of the work week. This trend looks to continue as the CPC`s 8-14 day outlook is expecting temperatures leaning above average with precipitation totals leaning below average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 LLWS still for a couple of hours at KOMA at TAF issuance, with winds at 1800` from the southwest around 45 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions with broken to overcast conditions with cloud bases at 6000-8000`. Southerly winds become northwest as a frontal boundary moves into the area. Cloud bases eventually drop to 3500-4500`, and there could be temporary MVFR ceilings at 16-21z. Left in a chance of flurries with those lower ceilings, but confidence seems to be dropping that anything measurable will develop. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...DeWald
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
422 FXUS63 KGID 220459 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1059 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - More mild temperatures have returned to the local area this afternoon with temperatures expected to fluctuate closer to normal (+/- 5-7 degrees) now through the upcoming weekend. - A mix of flurries or brief periods of light snow is possible beginning very late tonight and continuing off and on through Thursday afternoon-evening...with little to no overall accumulation expected (a Trace to a few tenths at best). - HOWEVER, there is some potential that spotty/heavier snow showers Wednesday daytime-evening could briefly reduce visibility and cause at least minor travel issues in the presence of northwest winds gusting at least 30-35 MPH. && .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 - ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: have decided to hit snow shower potential a little harder for Wed daytime-evening in our routine forecast products and Hazardous Weather Outlook. Although not expecting truly "high impact" weather Wednesday daytime-evening, did make some changes to our short term forecast that felt were worthy of mention here: 1) Leaning more toward the more-aggressive latest models such as HRRR/NAM, have made some modest increase/expansion of snow/snow shower chances for Wednesday daytime-evening. More specifically, have increased chances/PoPs for spotty light measurable snow (at least 0.1" inch) to at least 30% for most of our Nebraska counties in the morning, as that appears to be the main time frame for a potentially larger-scale/cohesive band of snow to pass through from north-to-south. 2) Then for the Wed afternoon-evening time frame, have forced our ENTIRE coverage area (CWA) to at least contain a baseline "slight chance" (15-20%) of isolated/spotty snow showers. Higher-res models (particularly HRRR) are insistent that spotty snow showers (probably some briefly intense?) are a decent bet given the presence of an upper trough aloft, along with meager- but-non-zero low level convective instability (CAPE) in the presence of steep low-mid level lapse rates. Have also learned from over the years that spotty snow showers in these setups often occur ALMOST ANYWHERE, and thus it`s not worth "getting cute" and trying to leave any portion of the CWA void of the aforementioned slight chances (folks tend to get caught off guard by these type of snow showers enough as it is). 3) We are not currently expecting this to turn into a true "snow squall" situation, but we have definitely seen this same type of setup a few times already this winter, where MOST places remain snow-free, while spotty/narrow corridors of the area pick up brief "bursts" of snow that reduce visibility in the presence of gusty northwest winds, despite only typically accumulating to a few tenths of an inch. 4) Lastly, and in light of # 1-3 above, will be introducing some snow shower/reduced visibility potential to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Temperatures have rebounded nicely across the local area today as the low level flow has become westerly...helping to advect a warmer airmass across the region. A few high clouds can also be seen streaming across the region on satellite...ahead of the next upper level disturbance crossing the northern Rockies this afternoon. Expect clouds to thicken across the region overnight as the atmosphere begins to saturate ahead of the next disturbance...with a few flurries or light snow showers becoming possible by daybreak Wednesday. Most models indicate some very spotty/light precipitation will be possible with this system as it crosses the local area on Wednesday, with seasonable temperatures continuing and little to no accumulation expected. A reinforcing shot of cooler air (with highs returning back to the 20s) will then infiltrate the region on Thursday, with additional afternoon flurries possible...although again, little to no accumulation is expected. Expect the low level flow to once again become westerly by Friday morning, which should help usher in more mild temperatures to end the week with highs possibly returning to the 40s by the afternoon hours. Thereafter...seasonable temperatures are expected over the weekend with a brief return to northwest flow aloft and a bit of cloud cover...with models then cutting a low off over California early next week...which will result in a more zonal/weak flow pattern locally, and temperatures possible climbing back into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence that the vast majority of the period features VFR ceiling/visibility and snow-free conditions, but there is at least one (if not two) "window of opportunity" for brief snow/snow shower activity primarily during the latter 12 hours that could spark at least sporadic MVFR conditions (and perhaps a light dusting of accumulation). Otherwise, the main issue will be moderately-strong northwest winds especially late morning through early evening (gusts around 30KT). More details follow... - Ceiling/visibility/snow potential: Despite plentiful mid level clouds mainly at-or-above 5-10K ft., the vast majority of the period should remain VFR. However, there are at least modest hints in various guidance that at least a sporadic MVFR ceiling could become an issue especially during the final 9 hours of the period (mid afternoon-evening). There also still appears to be a chance for brief/passing snow showers, although it now appears a bit more probable during the mid afternoon-evening versus the late morning-early afternoon, so have pushed back the PROB30 group for potential snow shower activity/high-end MVFR ceiling and visibility to 21-01Z (low- medium confidence in occurrence). Certainly cannot rule out a touch of snow activity both before 21Z and after 01Z, but at least for now the PROB30 group appears to capture the overall- most favored time frame. - Winds (including brief LLWS potential): Right away late tonight/early Wed AM, speeds will slacken to mainly at-or-below 10KT as direction gradually shifts increasingly westerly and eventually northwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. By mid-late Wed AM, northwest winds will then ramp up appreciably, with sustained speeds commonly 20-25KT/gusts ~ 30KT particularly from 16-00Z before a slight decrease occurs for Wed evening (but with gusts still 15-20KT). On one final wind-related note: considered introducing a brief low level wind shear (LLWS) group mainly 11-14Z to account for a period of north-northwesterly winds ramping up to around 35KT from the north-northwest mainly between 1,000-1,500 ft. AGL, but with overall shear magnitude looking to mainly peak slightly UNDER 30KT between the surface and this level, have held off for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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