Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

484
FXUS63 KOAX 280454
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1054 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel
  impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The
  highest chances will be in far northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued generally
  east of line from Pender to Onawa to Harlan. A Winter Weather
  Advisory will be in effect as far west of as a Verdigre to
  Pierce to Stanton line and north a line from Stanton to
  Tekamah.

- Travel impacts will become more widespread Saturday as snow
  overspreads the area and a few places see some light icing. In
  addition, gusty northwest winds will lead to some blowing and
  drifting snow, including into Saturday evening after snow
  ends. A Winter Weather Advisory expands south to include the
  Omaha and Council Bluffs metropolitan areas.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday`s system, with highs mostly
  in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens
  through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The forecast during the overnight hours will be relatively
chilly but quiet. Daybreak Friday will bring increasing chances
of snow across far northeast Nebraska, with light snow or
flurries making to the Omaha-Council Bluffs metro by afternoon
as warm air advection increases. Not too confident on
precipitation potential east central Nebraska and south, with
channeled mid-level flow. Additionally, moistening of the
atmosphere takes its time during the day Friday, with soundings
depicting drier near surface air, thus precipitation may
evaporate before reaching the ground. Friday evening and
overnight, large scale ascent improves as short-wave drops
southward into the Inter-Mountain area, then deepens as it moves
across the central and southern plains on Saturday.

With forecast area remaining in the relative warm-sector
overnight Friday until mid-day Saturday, believe there will
convective element to precipitation initially with EPV in the
-0.5 to -1.0 range being depicted, thus mixed phase
precipitation is expected, impacting the I-80 corridor. Trended
toward mushy sleet versus freezing rain. "Warm" nose is not as
evident with a sampling of soundings generally below 1-2C.
Diabatic effects could allow low level thermal profile to to
extend longer into the day on Saturday. Cyclonic stream of the
warm conveyor belt evolves during the day on Saturday and
enhancing frontogenesis, and likely will see an increase in snow
banding potential,though currently not confident in where this
may set up. There is a wide variance in the greatest snowfall
totals based on WPC superensemble with bi-model clustering in
the 2-5 inch and 6-8 inch range, with the more members being
depicted in the lower range. As such mean in setting out around
5 inches for OMA-FET line, trending 2-4 OMA- LNK or OMA-OLU and
OMA- OFK. Better potential for Council Bluffs eastward along the
I-80 corridor to see amounts approaching or exceeding warning
criteria. Even better potential across northwest Iowa in the
area now in a Winter Storm Warning. In tandem with snow,
increase in low level surface gradient as surface low moves
south and east across Kansas into Missouri will lead to increase
in winds into the 20-30 mph range, leading to blowing snow in
tandem with falling snow. Snow should completely exit east by
midnight Saturday night with winds tapering off shortly
thereafter. Currently expect final greatest snowfall totals of
4-6 inches east of line from Hartington to Omaha to Red Oax,
with 6-8 inches east of line from Winnebago to Mondamin to
Avoca.

Colder air settles into the region Sunday into Tuesday, with
little apparent recovery in at temperatures. Highs will be in
the upper teens and twenties, with lows in the single digits and
low teens. Another PV anomaly moves across the southern plains area
Monday night, bringing perhaps measurable snow to extreme
southern part of the forecast area. Upper levels become more
channeled thereafter, thus forecast remains dry Tuesday through
next Thursday. Should see recovery of temperatures with modest
upper level ridging occurring in broader cyclonic flow that
will envelope CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least the
first half of the forecast period. Light northerly winds will
gradually veer to southeasterly through the night, increasing in
speed late Friday morning. Winds gusts Friday afternoon may
reach 20-25 kts. A band of light snow is expected to push across
northeast Nebraska through the late morning and early afternoon.
Light snow may impact KOFK (30% chance), though dry air in the
sub-cloud layer leads to low confidence in snowfall reaching the
ground. Therefore, this chance has not been included in the
current TAF package.

In the final few hours of the forecast package, widespread precipitation
chances increase with snow expected at KOFK and KOMA, and a
rain/snow mix expected at KLNK. Ceilings will gradually decrease
to MVFR, with conditions further diminishing to IFR/LIFR just
after the forecast package.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to midnight CST Saturday
     night for NEZ015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NEZ031-043>045-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NEZ011-012-017-018-032>034.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to midnight CST Saturday
     night for IAZ043-055-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for IAZ069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

374
FXUS63 KGID 280935
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
335 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Storm Advisory will be in effect from 9PM this
  evening until 3PM Saturday for a few counties along and north
  of I-80.

- A mix of rain and freezing rain/drizzle will transition to snow
  across the overnight hours into to Saturday morning.

- Snow accumulations of a trace to 1" will be possible area-wide
  with amounts increasing up to 2-4" towards the northern and
  northeastern portions of the area (places mainly northeast of
  a line from Sherman to York counties).

- In addition, a glaze to just over a tenth of an inch of ice
  may accumulate in a few south central Nebraska areas during
  the rain to snow transition period (between mainly 8PM to 6AM)
  The best potential will be concentrated towards areas near
  the 1-80 corridor.

- Wind gusts up to 30-45MPH Saturday afternoon could cause
  blowing snow, resulting in reduced visibilities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025


The main story up front: At least a trace to a few inches of snow
(up to 4") will fall across the area overnight Friday and Saturday
morning. The heaviest snow amounts (2-4") will fall across places
northeast of a line from Sherman to York counties. In addition, a
glaze to just over a tenth of an inch of ice may possibly accrete
Friday evening and through the overnight hours for a portion of south
central nebraska during the rain to snow transition period (best
potential across the I-80 corridor between 8PM and 6AM). Blowing
snow will be possible Saturday afternoon as wind gusts blow up to 30-
45MPH.

What has changed?: Snow amounts have generally increased across the
north and northeastern half of the area with peak amounts now up to
2-4" (counties along and north of a line from Sherman to Polk).
Little change has occurred for our central areas (1-3" for Dawson and
Phelps over to York and Filmore counties) as well as the rest of
the area (a trace up to near 1") of snow. The confidence of freezing
rain/drizzle leading to a few areas of ice accumulations remain
a possibility (a glaze up to just over a tenth of an inch).

Winter Storm Advisory: Due to the slight increase in snowfall
amounts and the continued potential of areas of freezing rain, a
Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect 9PM tonight until 3PM
Saturday for most counties along and north of I-80 (not including
Dawson/Buffalo counties). Though not all of these places may receive
3" of snowfall (Advisory Criteria), given the potential for freezing
rain/drizzle, the criteria has been bent slightly to account for the
still potentially dangerous driving conditions (slick roads and
blowing snow).

Timing: Precipitation for a few locations north of I-80 and mainly
east of HWY-281, could see flurries as early as this morning, though
accumulating snow will not begin until the later tonight. Mixed
precipitation (primarily rain and freezing rain/drizzle) will expand
in coverage across the area from north to south between around 5PM
and 4AM. Areas around I-80 will be the most likely to observe
freezing rain/drizzle during this period of time. Between 1AM and
8AM, the mixed precipitation will slowly transition to snow with the
heaviest snow falling between 6AM and 11AM. The period of
accumulating snow should come to an end between 9AM and 3PM
(clearing west to east). Blowing snow looks probable to limit
visibility into the afternoon hours Saturday with winds gusts as
high as 30-45MPH possible across non-compact or glazed snowcover.

Other Notes: Beyond the precipitation chances Friday night into
Saturday morning, lows Saturday and Sunday night will range the
single digits teens with wind-chills as low as -5 to 5 degrees.
The potential for a second dusting of snow near the NE/KS
border remain in the forecast for Monday morning. Amounts
continue to remain below 1".

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Tonight...

Seasonable, but overall quiet weather is ongoing this afternoon with
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Cloud coverage will increase
over the area tonight ahead of an approaching trough. Clouds and
increasing southerly winds keep temperatures in the 20s to low 30s
overnight.

Friday and Saturday...

An initial band of light snow may graze far northeastern portions of
the area on Friday morning. Any accumulation looks to be little more
than a trace. Lift and moisture increase during the day on
Friday as the low moves into the Plains. As the atmosphere
slowly saturates, precipitation will likely start out very
light/drizzly. Precipitation chances (15-35%) during the daytime
hours on Friday will be confined to eastern/northeastern
portions of the area. Rain/drizzle transitions to freezing
rain/drizzle Friday evening across northeastern portions of the
area as temperatures steadily drop.

PoPs increase Friday night/early Saturday morning (50-80%) as
precipitation becomes more widespread around the low. A band of
freezing drizzle/rain is favored to develop roughly along I-80
during this time, with surface temperatures reaching the
freezing mark. Additionally, wet surfaces may begin to freeze
due to the dropping temperatures, first on elevated surfaces.
Combined, this will result in slick roads across the central and
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Freezing
rain/drizzle turns to snow from north to south Saturday morning,
with a complete transition to snow reaching the NE/KS border by
the mid-morning hours on Saturday. The period of heaviest
snowfall is expected during the morning hours on Saturday, with
snow ending from west to east late Saturday morning-afternoon.

Winds quickly ramp up Saturday morning along the backside of the
low, gusting 35-45mph. Falling snow combined with the gusty winds
will result in poor visibility and travel conditions. Additionally,
where heavier snow has fallen (north of I-80, west of Highway 281),
areas of blowing snow are possible into the evening hours. Overall
Saturday will not be a good day for travel for areas east of
Highway 281, and along/north of Interstate 80.

Snowfall totals remain fairly similar, with a dusting possible
across west/southwest portions of the area. Areas along and
northeast of the Tri-Cities have the highest chances to see 1" or
more of snow. It remains possible that a band of heavier snowfall
sets up over the area and produces 3-4" of snow, which would be
most likely along and northeast of a line from Greeley to York.

Sunday Onwards....

Temperatures Sunday morning will sit in the single digits to
mid teens. While much lighter than on Saturday, winds gusting
10-15mph combined with cold temperatures results in wind chill
values dropping near to below zero. Mostly cloudy skies during
the day will limit heating during the day, as highs only reach
the 20s on Sunday. A passing shortwave trough moves into the
area Sunday night-Monday morning, bringing another chance for
snow to mainly southern portions of the area. Accumulations with
this round look to be fairly light (1" or less), and be
confined mainly to areas along and south of the NE/KS border.
Temperatures climb back above freezing on Tuesday. Another
shortwave pushes through the area on Wednesday, bringing another
shot of cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clouds hovering around 10,000ft will lower Friday Afternoon and
evening with a 40-60% chance of MVFR ceilings as early as 21-0z
for KEAR and as early as 23z-2z for KGRI. Bases will be likely
(60% chance) to drop into low-end MVFR by 3-6z for both
terminals.

Freezing rain will be possible after 0z with increasing
potential through to just after 6z Saturday.

Winds will remain light overnight tonight out of the east-
southeast and becoming more southeasterly in time. Winds Friday
afternoon will blow between 10-15ks with gusts up to 20-25kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
     Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion