Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

751
FXUS63 KOAX 202310
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area until 10
  PM. Expect heat index values of 105 to 110 with overnight
  heat indices remaining in the 70s.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible this evening
  (20-40% chance). Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Cooler weather returns by the middle of the week, with high
  temperatures falling back into the 80s and even some 70s
  Thursday. There will be increasing chances for showers and
  storms Wednesday through Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Today and Tonight...

Excessively hot temperatures simmered over the forecast area this
afternoon as a high pressure system dominated the western half of
the CONUS. By noon, temperatures had reached the low 90s with
dewpoints spanning the 70s. Heat indices ranged from 99 to 105.

But relief is in sight! Surface analysis indicates a cold front
currently draped from north central Nebraska to southern Minnesota,
associated with a midlevel low moving into the Great Lakes, will
move southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this
afternoon and evening. Instability will pool ahead of the boundary,
setting the stage for deep moist convective updrafts to develop.
However sustained strong storms may be limited by strongest shear
vectors lingering just behind the front. While storms likely won`t
survive long enough to produce large hail, they could fall down in a
hurry, creating the potential for strong, damaging wind gusts. This
can be verified by noting the 1400-1600 J/kg of DCAPE building over
northeast Nebraska.

In addition to thunderstorms, northerly winds behind the front could
bring down some near-surface smoke from Canadian wild fires. While
it`s not expected to be nearly as impactful as it was near the Great
Lakes recently, it may be noticeable, especially across the northern
half of the CWA.

CAMs hint at another line of elevated showers and storms developing
behind the surface front late tonight and into early Tuesday
morning, as the LLJ ramps up. However these storms are even less
likely to become strong or severe, as the front scours out remaining
instability with it`s passage.

Tuesday through Friday...

Storm coverage will gradually dissipate through the morning,
Tuesday, as the line moves south. Temperatures will finally take it
down a notch, behind the passing front Tuesday afternoon. Highs are
expected to be within a few degrees of "normal", reaching the
mid and upper 80s by the afternoon.

A much more noticeable change in temperatures arrives Wednesday and
continues through Friday. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s
and lower 80s Wednesday and Friday, with a few locations only
topping out in the mid to upper 70s Thursday!

A pair of quick-hitting shortwaves will aide in the push of cooler
air Tuesday night/Wednesday and Thursday/Friday morning. Not only
will these bring cooler temperatures, but also some much needed
wetting rains with showers and thunderstorms. WPC highlights
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa with a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall Thursday, where deep moisture and training storms
may be possible.

Saturday and Beyond...

Unfortunately, longer range models continue to hint at the potential
for the ridge to rebound this weekend and into next week, bringing a
resurgence of heat. A few shortwaves rippling around the ridge could
bring some mild relief with cloud cover and low precip chances. But
overall, CPC outlooks maintain above normal temperatures are likely
to stick around through at least early August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Spotty showers and storms will remain possible this evening as a
front pushes south through the area, with potential for the
strongest storms to produce 50+ mph wind gusts. However,
potential for strong storms at the TAF sites looks to be low
(10% or less through midnight). Additional shower and storm
development is expected after 06Z including at OMA and LNK, but
these will be much weaker and may not even have lightning.
Generally expect VFR conditions, though may see a brief drop to
MVFR with any heavier showers. Otherwise, winds behind the
front will become northerly with gusts of 18-22 kts by mid to
late morning Tuesday with a few lingering clouds around 5000 ft.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

029
FXUS63 KGID 202320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps well in the 90s/low 100s combined with dewpoints in the
  60s-70s has brought heat index values over 100 to the entire
  forecast area this afternoon. No changes made to the Heat
  Advisory, which runs through 10PM this evening.

- A gradually southward-sinking surface cold front may spark off
  a few thunderstorms late this afternoon-evening, mainly across
  northern portions of the area. Can`t rule out a few stronger
  storms, but severe weather doesn`t look likely.

- This cold front brings relief from the heat Tuesday...while
  temps are still in the 80s-90s, dewpoints are forecast to be
  lower in the 50s-near 60.

- A more active pattern develops across the Central Plains
  mainly for Wednesday-Thursday, with periodic shortwave
  disturbances bringing precipitation to the entire area. Not
  looking like a non-stop rain that entire time...but at least
  the chances have returned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this
afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in
place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure
remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS,
roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends
up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a
low pressure system working its way east into the western Great
Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is
helping drive a surface cold front south through the
Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into
SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little
issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making
things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which
currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread
heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA-
wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this
evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...


This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the
region this evening and tonight...and while it`s arriving too
late to provide any help with today`s temperatures, it may aid
in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon
and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing
from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far
northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our
area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question.
While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms
will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm
mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The
area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but
any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail
and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on
Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether
or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing
in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to
the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity
developing along an elevated front lagging behind across
northern portions of the area. Because there are differences
with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after
03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday
with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some
uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated
showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does
linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the
cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds,
which look to be northeasterly through the day...and
temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s
today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the
NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast
dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a
difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the
forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time
frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during
that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of
waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level
disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps
already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances
through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half
of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the
edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through
later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the
potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing
the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south.
Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this
point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area
not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming
weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as
models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across
central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation
chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the
70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable
winds are expected this evening as they shift from the south to
the north behind a frontal passage. Behind the front north-
northeasterly winds around 10kts are expected overnight,
increasing Tuesday morning with gusts around 20kts at KEAR.
Winds decrease late in the TAF period. FEW-BKN clouds around
100-150 are possible throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion