Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

746
FXUS63 KOAX 101056
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
456 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued potential for ice movement is expected for the
  Platte, Loup, and Elkhorn Rivers. A Flood Watch remains in
  effect through at least Tuesday morning.

- A cold front has brought cooler weather to the area. Despite
  this, temperatures remain above normal through this week.

- Periodic rain chances are expected on Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning, on Saturday, and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The record warm temperatures on Monday were short-lived. A cold
front is continuing south through the area late this evening.
The front will result in significantly cooler temperatures on
Tuesday. Despite the cold front, temperatures are forecast to
remain above normal. This is true not only for Tuesday, but for
the entire forecast period as largely zonal flow keeps the
weather steady. Temperatures briefly fall to near freezing this
morning before climbing into the 40s to near 50 this afternoon.
With these continued warm temperatures, potential ice movement
on area rivers, especially the Loup, Platte, and Elkhorn Rivers,
remains possible.

The coldest temperatures of the forecast are anticipated
Wednesday morning, as surface high pressure helps temperatures
plummet into the 20s. Temperatures rebound nicely into the lower
50s by Wednesday afternoon. A weak disturbance quickly moves
over the central and northern Great Plains Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. At the moment, much of the precipitation is
forecast to remain north of the region, but a low (15-30%)
chance of rain remains for northern portions of northeast
Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Precipitation is likely to
remain a cold rain, as clouds should keep surface temperatures
just above freezing through Thursday morning. Beyond this,
temperatures warm slightly through the end of the week.

Our next weather system arrives on Saturday. The latest
forecast guidance is coming into agreement that the main
shortwave and low-pressure center will remain across the
southern Great Plains. This will keep the majority of any
precipitation south of the area. As a result, rain chances have
lowered with this forecast to only a low to medium (20-50%)
chance of rain for much of the area. The best chance of rain
will be with southern extent, closer to the low pressure center.
With less precipitation expected, the slow warming of late week
continues through the weekend. Our next weather maker after
this is not currently anticipated until sometime early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period at the
terminals. Northwest winds may be a little breezy at times
through mid-afternoon, before decreasing to under 10kts. Winds
will become light and variable after sunset.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until noon CST today for NEZ016-017-031>033-
     042>045-050>053-067.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

768
FXUS63 KGID 101147
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
547 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperature-wise: while the "extreme" warmth of the last few
  days is behind us, a persistently above normal regime appears
  to persist for at least another 7-10 days, with daily highs
  mainly in the 50s/60s, and overnight lows mainly 20s/30s.

- At least for a few more days, this warmth will contribute to a
  continued risk for localized ice jam flooding along the
  Platte/Loup River systems in the northern half of our forecast
  area (CWA)...see separate HYDROLOGY section below for more.

- Precipitation-wise: Frankly, the news is not good as a mainly
  dry regime will persist through at least the next 9-10 days
  (the rain chances we`re currently carrying for mainly Fri
  night-Saturday have trended down again...now no higher than
  20-30% as primary models continue to agree the main shield of
  precip will focus at least slightly south of our CWA).

- On a positive note, besides the aforementioned ice jam
  flooding risk, there are no "obvious" hazardous weather
  concerns in our going 7-day forecast at this time (including
  any particularly windy days, critical fire weather concerns,
  etc.).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 436 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE:
1) Rain potential for especially Fri night-Saturday has again
trended down (after briefly spiking up somewhat with yesterday
afternoon`s "forecast package". The latest deterministic runs of
the ECMWF/GFS focus the vast majority of precip potential at
least 50-100 miles south of our CWA altogether, and even the
more generous 00Z ECMWF ensemble only suggests perhaps a few
hundredths of an inch in our Nebraska counties and perhaps only
up to around 0.10" in our KS zones. Accordingly, official precip
chances (PoPs) are now down to no higher than 20-30% in most of
our Nebraska counties, and no higher than 30-40% in our KS
zones.

2) Not a huge change, but high temps have increased slightly
(and perhaps not enough)? for especially the Saturday-Monday
time frame, as at least upper 50s-low 60s could make a return
already by Saturday if the aforementioned system remains to our
south (currently official forecast for Saturday has come up
slightly, but it still only low-mid 50s at best).


-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 4 AM:
Although breezy for sure, if anything northerly winds associated
with the overnight passage of a well-defined cold front
"underachieved" a bit versus expectations from 12-24 hours, ago,
with most places registering peak gusts no higher than ~ 35 MPH.
Nonetheless, our entire CWA is no firmly behind this front,
with most places reporting sustained north winds 10-20 MPH/gusts
up to around 25 MPH. Mid-high level clouds have been on the
increase over our northern areas, while skies over many of our
southern counties remain clear at this time. Overnight low temps
are on track to bottom out low-mid 30s most places.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm broad quasi-zonal
(west-east) flow over the Central Plains, with the
aforementioned surface front driven southward in response to a
shortwave trough zipping eastward across the Northern
Plains/southern Canada toward the Great Lakes.


- TODAY (much cooler but STILL 10+ degrees above normal):
Under continued, benign quasi-zonal flow aloft, the main story
today will be MUCH cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs
aimed within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas...a good
25-30 degrees cooler than yesterday! Nonetheless, these readings
will be 10+ degrees above mid-February normals. The secondary
story will be continued breezy north winds, especially this
morning, with sustained speeds around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH
continuing. However, as a surface high pressure (ridge) axis
currently centered over western SD noses down more so into
northern Nebraska this afternoon, our wind speeds will gradually
ease up (especially after 3 PM), with sustained speeds no more
than 5-10 MPH by late afternoon/early evening. As for cloud
cover, skies will generally average partly cloudy, but leaning
more toward mostly cloudy this morning (mainly north), and more
mostly sunny for the afternoon. We`ll need to keep a wary eye on
an extensive deck of low stratus currently sinking southward
across eastern SD as some model low-level relative humidity
guidance (such as from RAP) suggest this cloud mass could at
least flirt with invading our far northern/northeast counties
for a few hours around mid-day, but it appears more likely that
they`d primarily affect north central/northeast Nebraska
(slightly outside our CWA).


- TONIGHT (overall-coolest of next several):
Although not an ideal radiational cooling setup (mainly due to
at least partly cloudy skies of the mid-high level variety, this
nonetheless looks to be the chilliest of the next several
nights. At the surface, a ridge axis will slide south-
southeastward through our CWA over the course of the night,
keeping winds very light (mainly under 5 MPH) as direction
gradually transitions from northerly this evening to southerly
by sunrise Wednesday. Low temps are aimed mid 20s most places,
but if skies stay clearer then wouldn`t be surprised to see
greater coverage of low 20s and perhaps even some upper teens
(especially in typical colder spots such as Ord).


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME (similar temperatures, opposite wind
  direction):
High confidence in a continued dry forecast, although a weak
disturbance passing through in west-northwesterly flow aloft
will keep plenty of mid-high level cloud cover streaming
overhead (skies at least partly cloudy). At the surface, the
ridge axis from Tues night will gradually depart eastward,
allowing southerly breezes to gradually pick up as the day
wears on. Speeds will not be overly-strong, but will be a bit
breezy especially over the western half of our CWA (sustained
around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH). Temperature-wise, highs appear
remarkably similar to today`s readings, with most places low 50s
(probably fewer places than today that don`t manage to escape
the upper 40s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026


Short Term Period (This Afternoon Though Wednesday)...

The Red Flag Warning in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman and
Howard counties in Nebraska as well as Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell
counties in Kansas, will remain in effect until 6PM this afternoon.
Record high temperatures today have helped dry conditions
considerably, allowing relative humidity values to drop as low as 10-
25% across the area. Wind gusts approaching 25MPH across the Nebraska
Sandhills as well as across portions of north central Kansas this
afternoon, provoke these areas of critical fire weather conditions.
Near-critical fire weather conditions additionally lie for the rest
of the area outside of the warning.

Do not get use to this record heat today as temperatures will drop
around 20-25 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday (from the 70s down to
the upper 40s to low 50s). A (dry) cold front will lead the charge
later this evening, dropping southeast and initiating this cool
down. Winds behind the front will flip northward with a short window
of overnight gusts as high as 40-45MPH possible (40-70% chance). The
timing of the front is expected to pass between 9PM and 1AM. Higher
surface pressure infiltrating behind this front will help nudge
these winds back some by the second half of the day Tuesday. Steady
to occasionally light winds (gusts 

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion