Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

079
FXUS63 KOAX 071705
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday morning wind chills are reading in the single digits
  above and below zero.

- A brief warmup arrives early next week: highs climb into the
  30s on Monday, then into the 40s and even low 50s on Tuesday
  before another push of colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cold air continues to pour into the area this morning behind the
cold front that`s pushing though central Missouri early this
morning. The western edge of the cold air has come to rest
against the Front Range of the Rockies, but will be scoured out
over the course of the day as ridging builds over the western
CONUS.

As the warm air pushes east, it will be forced upward
(isentropic upglide) and may produce some isolated snowflakes
this afternoon. PoPs peak at about 30% northwest of Norfolk
this afternoon, and slip as the warm front progresses east after
sunset (15%). Likely PoPs will be found just north of I-90 in
South Dakota closer to the center of the low-level shortwave
pulling the warm front across Nebraska. QPF is negligible.
Forecast impacts are negligible, too.

Despite the warm front`s passage, temps won`t change all that
much today, warming only by about five degrees. Southerly winds
and mostly cloudy skies are apt to do that. Teens and 20s for
AM lows... teens and twenties for highs, too! Exactly a year
ago, we set record highs in the 60s.

Teen temps hold on through Sunday night, too, at least for most
locations with some single digits developing in western Iowa by
early Monday morning.

.MONDAY and TUESDAY...

The arctic air kicked east, some extra sunshine, and continued
southerly flow should allow Monday`s temps to improve enough to
melt snow across the entire area on Monday with Tuesday`s temps
jumping another 10-15 degrees to above seasonal norms.

A closed low caught up in northwest H5 flow will bring wintry
precip across the central CONUS on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
but deterministic global models have favored solutions with a
more northeasterly track of the low`s center and thus its
precipitation. PoPs have now fallen below 10% for Tuesday.

.WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

The busy northwesterly H5 flow brings another chance of precip
on Wednesday night. There are plenty of disagreements in
guidance, but most ensemble members of GEFS/ENS/GEPS show a
little precip over the course of Wednesday, though many of them
show just a trace or so. Our 40% PoPs represent the chance of
*measurable* precip (above a trace). An inch or two of snow is
 possible if the timing/location works out.

Regardless if the precip materializes, it does seem we`ll be
dealing with another arctic outbreak as temps drop considerably
for the end of the week. Again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR to IFR conditions prevail late this morning as varying low-
level cloud decks push across the area. IFR conditions at KOFK
and KLNK should gradually improve to MVFR into the early
afternoon, while KOMA varies between VFR and MVFR. A warm front
pushing across the area later this afternoon into the early
evening will bring continued MVFR conditions and a chance
(15-30%) for light snow. KOFK has the highest confidence in
seeing this light snow, with low confidence in impacts at KOMA
and KLNK. Northeasterly winds of 8-12 kts ahead of the front
will calm and veer to southerly with the fronts passage. Behind
the front, conditions will improve to VFR at all terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

618
FXUS63 KGID 071802
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1202 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered snow showers are possible north of I-80 this
  afternoon, little to no accumulation is expected. Lowered high
  temperatures by several degrees.

- Temperatures climb back above normal on Monday and Tuesday
  with highs in the 40s/50s Monday and in the 50s/60s Tuesday.

- Cooler weather returns Wednesday onwards, as a series of
  clipper systems move through the area. Light snow is possible
  Wednesday night-Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Clouds will likely remain until after sunset and thus with
thicker more persistent cloud cover, have lowered high
temperatures for today by several degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Temperature are currently sitting in the 20s to low 30s this morning
under low stratus. Cold air advection will result in temperatures
dipping into the teens by sunrise across northern portions of the
area. A cloudy and cool day is expected across the area today, with
temperatures this afternoon confined to the mid 20s (northeast) to
mid 30s (southwest). Thankfully winds remain fairly light at 5-
10mph, keeping wind chill values during the day to the 20s/30s.

A passing disturbance will bring a chance (15-25%) for a few
scattered snow showers to areas along/north of I-80 this afternoon.
Any accumulations should be limited to a trace/light dusting at
most. Snow showers will exit northeastern portions of the area by
the evening hours. Skies clear during the late evening-overnight
hours, with temperatures dropping into the teens tonight.

The forecast for Monday and Tuesday remain on track, and look to be
the warmest days of the forecast period. Highs on Monday will be in
the in the 40s (east) and 50s (west), and climb into the 50s and 60s
on Tuesday. A cold front dives into the area Tuesday night, bringing
cooler air that persists through the end of the forecast period,
coldest Friday/Saturday. The next chance for PoPs arrives Wednesday
night-Thursday which could bring a chance for light snow, but there
remains spread in model guidance Wednesday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tonight...

A surface area of low pressure will slide off to our southeast
and colder air will filter back into our region with briefly
gusty northerly winds this evening behind the low. Any
precipitation with this clipper system will be well to our
northeast across far northeastern Nebraska this evening. We
expect dry weather across our forecast area.


Sunday...

This will be a one day cold snap behind tonight`s clipper system
with the coldest air across our northeast and especially east of
our area. Our southwestern areas will only get a glancing shot
of this cold air. Northeastern Nebraska will likely only see
highs in the teens while our northeastern zones should reach
into the 20s, and our southwestern areas could make the mid
30s.

There is a chance for light snow Sunday afternoon with warm air
advection as 850 mb temperatures start to climb from west to
east. Will see at least increasing clouds and forecast models
vary on snow chances, but the predominate model solution seems
to be trace amounts of light snow showers across our northern
counties, mainly north of I-80. Did introduce small snow POPs
of (20-30%) into the forecast. Again, only expecting trace
amounts of snow for those that do catch a little snow.


Monday through Tuesday...

This will be a nice warm up especially Tuesday with many areas
seeing highs over 60 by Tuesday afternoon. We are essentially in
a northwest flow pattern and warmer air pushes in from the west
before the next clipper can blast us with another round of cold.


Wednesday through Saturday...

Warming periods typically don`t last long this time of year and
that will be the case as we end the work week and move into
next weekend. The next clipper system comes in from the
northwest Tuesday night and could bring some light rain or snow
to the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. At this point it doesn`t look like a big snow maker for
our area but it`s still a long ways off with a wide envelope of
model solutions at this point in time. What is most likely at
this point is that gradually colder air will work back into the
area late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low clouds have persisted longer than NBM was indicating and
thus adjusted the TAF to be more pessimistic, keeping low
clouds around until a few hours after sunset. However, would not
be surprised if low clouds persist even longer through the late
evening hours. We will probably see some back and forth between
IFR and lower end MVFR ceilings through this evening. There is
pretty good model agreement that the clouds should eventually
scatter out overnight with mostly clear skies currently expected
on Monday.

We are not expecting any accumulating snow through the period,
but can not rule out a few flurries right around sunset.

The wind will remain light and variable through early evening
and then mainly light southerly winds by late evening and
overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/Wesely
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion