Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

391
FXUS63 KOAX 021146
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
546 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect quieter weather today with warmer temperatures
  expected.

- Wednesday brings a chance for a few flurries or snow showers
  and shot of much colder air. Thursday morning lows will be
  below zero for many.

- Expect a warm up again Friday and Saturday, with another cool
  down late in the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Skies have cleared out and temperatures continue to fall early this
morning. Lows will be in the single digits above zero for most areas
with a few low double digits near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Wind
chills as you head out the door will be in the single digits above
and below zero. Tuesday will be quiet and warmer as northwest flow
transitions to zonal through the day. Temperatures will warm into
the 30s this afternoon, giving us a brief reprieve from the cold.
Clouds increase after sunrise this morning, becoming partly cloudy
south of of Hwy 92 and mostly cloudy for areas north. With the
slightly warmer temperatures and some sunshine, some melting of snow
and snow-packed areas may begin to occur. This may lead to some
refreezing issues overnight as temperatures drop.

Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning, a mid-level shortwave trough will
slide into the region from the northwest. Northeastern Nebraska may
get clipped with a shower or two overnight and into Wednesday
morning. As this system moves southeast, a few light flurries or
snow showers may impact the region. Little to no accumulation is
expected with this system.

A backdoor cold front pushes south into Nebraska and Iowa beginning
late Tuesday night. With the timing of the cold fropa, expected high
temperatures may occur during the early morning hours on Wednesday
before dropping through the day. North winds will increase to around
15-25mph with gusts as high as 35mph. Wind chill values in the
afternoon will be in the single digits for northern Nebraska and the
teens and 20s for the rest of the Omaha CWA.

The arctic blast of colder air will result in bitterly cold
temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Expected low
temperatures will range from around 3 degrees above zero toward the
Kansas/Nebraska border to around 12 degrees below zero in western
Iowa. Lincoln`s record low temperature is -6, so this will be
something to keep an eye on as the current forecasted temperature
for Thursday morning is -5. Wind chill values as cold as 15 below
zero will be possible during the morning. Thursday highs will remain
on the cold side, with highs in the teens in western Iowa and the
20s in eastern Nebraska.

Temperatures rebound into the 20s and 30s on Friday and Saturday as
the cold front exits the region and northwest flow sets up. An
embedded shortwave trough will enter the region Saturday morning.
This quick-moving system may clip northeast Nebraska and western
Iowa with a couple of snow showers. Chances are at about 20% right
now. Models are showing another brief cool down (highs in the
20s) toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail through most of the forecast period at
the terminals. A few pockets of patchy fog are possible near the
Missouri River this morning, but shouldn`t cause any major
impacts to the terminals. Southerly winds turn to the southwest
this afternoon, becoming northwesterly after midnight. A cold
front will move in from the north this tonight, bringing
ceilings down to at leave MVFR levels, with possible IFR levels
toward that latter part of the forecast period. LLWS may be
possible as the cold front moves into the region; however,
timing of the frontal passage is still a little uncertain, which
lowered confidence in timing of potential onset for LLWS, so
this was omitted from prevailing conditions for now. Some light
snow may be possible by sunrise Wednesday near KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

843
FXUS63 KGID 021132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
532 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
  though accumulating snow is not likely.

- A cold frontal passage Wednesday will chop highs by 5-15
  degrees, from the mid 30s to upper 40s this afternoon to the
  low to mid 30s Wednesday.

- The coldest night of the week, following the frontal passage,
  will occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Lows will
  drop to the single digits to just below 0 for a few locations
  east of the Tri-Cities. (Wind chills as low as -10 to 5
  degrees)

- The rest of the week is dry with temperatures filp-flopping
  between the 20/30s and 40/50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 239 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025


A mild and quiet day is ahead with highs back up into the mid 30s to
upper 40s. This warmup, mainly influenced by the presence of steady
5-15MPH southeasterly downsloping winds, should help orchestrate some
melting snow this afternoon. Later, a mid-to-upper level trough will
drop down into the Mountain West Region, brining along a cold front
down with it. This front will pass south across Central NE/KS
through the day Wednesday, dropping temperatures 5-15 degrees (highs
in the low to mid 30s). Though all of the accumulating snow should
likely fall west of the area, the potential for some flurries
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning behind the front can`t be ruled
out. For now we maintain a broad 6-12 hour period of flurries in our
forecast, though in reality, any flurry activity should be more
scattered and variable with time than consistent.

Beyond the flurries Wednesday morning, temperatures will fall to
their lowest point of the week Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Temperatures across the board will dip into the single
digits with areas mainly east of the Tri-Cities approaching and
falling a few degrees below 0 (to as low as -3 degrees). Though
winds will be light that morning, wind chills may still drop to as
low as -10 degrees in a few isolated northeast lying locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today and Tuesday...

Skies are clearing from west to east this afternoon behind a
departing disturbance. Temperatures are sitting in the 20s
(central/east) to low 30s (west). Any lingering flurries should exit
southeastern portions of the area by the late afternoon. Clear skies
and light winds tonight will result in temperatures dropping into
the single digits to low teens, coldest where the snowpack is the
deepest. Wind chill values Tuesday morning will hover around zero,
dropping below zero in periods of wind.

Southwesterly flow strengthens over the area on Tuesday, bringing a
welcome warmup to the area. Temperatures climb above freezing
across the area (mid 30s to mid 40s), allowing for at least some
melting of snow/ice. The warmest temperatures on Tuesday will
be across far western portions of the area where there is the
least snow on the ground. These areas could make a run at
temperatures near 50 degrees given favorable downslope winds.
Overall a relatively pleasant day is expected on Tuesday,
especially when compared to the past few days.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The next disturbance moves into the area on Wednesday, bringing
another shot of cold air to the area. The NBM currently keeps the
forecast area dry (PoPs < 10%) with this disturbance and
frontal passage. PoPs may eventually be needed Wednesday
morning, with HREF members showing the potential for scattered
light precipitation, and 12z ensemble members showing a 20-30%
chance for 0.01" of precipitation. If precipitation does occur,
it would likely be a light wintry mix.

Breezy-gusty winds move in behind the front on Wednesday, with
northerly winds gusting 25-30mph. Winds combined with highs only in
the low 30s results in a chilly feeling day across the area
(apparent temperatures in the teens to low 20s). Winds become light
Wednesday night as a high pressure system moves over the area.
Temperatures Wednesday night-Thursday morning will drop into the
single digits. Areas with the highest lingering snowpack (highway 81
and east) may see temperatures below zero around sunrise
Thursday morning. Thankfully, light winds keep wind chill values
"only" in the single digits below zero. Southerly winds
strengthen after sunrise, gusting 20-30mph. Highs on Thursday
range from the mid 20s along/east of Highway 81 to the upper 30s
west of highway 183.

Friday Onwards...

Temperatures climb back towards normal on Friday and Saturday under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s are
expected, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. The next
disturbance and shot of cold air arrives Saturday night-Sunday,
though this looks to be a quick cooldown before temperatures climb
back towards/above normal next week. The forecast remains dry
through the weekend, though it`s possible Saturday night/Sunday`s
system brings some light precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will retain through the first part of the night
tonight (through 9z). Broken to overcast skies will dominate the
second half of the day with ceilings likely reaching MVFR
conditions before sunrise Wednesday (60-70% chance). A few brief
period of flurries can`t be ruled out across the overnight
hours, however, no accumulating snow is expected. Winds will
blow between 5-15kts today out of the southwest, becoming light
and variable this evening/night. Wind directions will continue
to swing clockwise towards the northwest overnight tonight as a
cold front approaches from the north.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion