Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

432
FXUS63 KOAX 260511
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1211 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and mostly quiet weather continues through Saturday, with
  only a few showers or thunderstorms possible.

- Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected
  Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110
  degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next
  week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Lingering showers should gradually dissipate tonight as a
shortwave trough moves east and out of the Plains. Surface high
pressure is situated over the northern Plains and this leads to
a quiet start to Friday with gradually clearing skies and
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. The aforementioned
surface high pressure begins to move off to our east Friday
afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and the return of southeast winds
push temperatures back into the upper 70s to low 80s during the
afternoon. Another shortwave trough swings across the northern
Rockies heading into Saturday. This strengthens lee troughing,
resulting in gusty southeast winds. This keeps temperatures a
bit warmer Saturday morning with 60s to start the weekend. By
afternoon, a weak disturbance moves out of the central Rockies.
This may produce a few thunderstorm over our area, but chances
are low and most of the day remains quiet. Temperatures continue
to be mild for one more day with low 80s across the area.

The first heat wave of summer builds across much of the central
and eastern US beginning this weekend. The worst of this heat
arrives Sunday into Monday. Strong south winds under the ridge
will help to push warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints
north. The strong winds are driven by persistent lee troughing
with a large trough persisting over the northern Rockies. Each
day temperatures push well into the 90s to near 100 with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Peak heat indices in the
100s are likely for many. The highest heat indices may be as
high as 105 to 110 degrees. This level of heat may require heat
advisories in later forecasts.

The pattern only changes slightly heading into next week. Hot
and humid conditions are forecast to continue, though
temperatures will be a touch cooler. With changes to the
strength and position of the ridge anticipated, this may allow
for the return of periodic rain chances. The exact details
remain a bit uncertain between ensemble members, but at least
some threat of evening or overnight thunderstorms as
disturbances round the ridge appears possible. As confidence in the
forecast evolution of the ridge improves this weekend, expect
more details on the best chance for thunderstorms. Given the
hot and humid conditions, any thunderstorms will have plenty of
instability to work with, though wind shear is more marginal.
Severe weather remains a possibility with this environment.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions with cigs up around 10,000-20,000 ft. Winds out
of the norht-northeast will shift easterly overnight, on to
southeasterly through Friday morning. We`ll be watching MVFR
cigs expanding northward from the south through the morning
hours. Guidance has locked on to these cigs lifting north
through at least KLNK with a 80% chance, while only a 40%
chance it gets as far north as KOMA. MVFR cigs will hang around
until clouds start to break up from the north during the
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

764
FXUS63 KGID 260546
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1246 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers (maybe a weak thunderstorm in KS?), along
  with low clouds and possibly light drizzle/light fog will
  reign over much our forecast area tonight into Friday morning.

- Friday brings one last day of seasonably-cool highs only in
  the 70s before Saturday serves as the "transition day" with
  highs mainly 80s.

- Upper level pattern shift will bring an abrupt arrival of
  summer heat/humidity Sunday and beyond with highs at least
  into low-mid 90s...likely serving as a "shock to our systems"
  in the wake of the ongoing/prolonged cooler stretch.

- Along with the heat, moisture surging northward will bring
  dewpoint values up well into the 60s to even low 70s
  (especially in our eastern counties). This combo of
  heat/humidity will drive heat index values to as high as
  100-105 especially Sunday/Monday...at least approaching
  official Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For the rest of the day and overnight, scattered off and on showers
with very isolated thunder will be present through the evening
hours, tapering off overnight and towards Friday morning. The
latest guidance, including high-res ensemble guidance keeps the
bulk of any additional rainfall to the south and east of the
area. There is a potential that Rooks county could be clipped by
some stronger activity that slides southeast out of western
Nebraska and Kansas and could bring additional water concerns
if that does occur, but confidence is not high on that solution.

The upper level pattern shifts Friday as an upper low digs into
the Pacific Northwest. This causes the Central Plains to be
under southwesterly upper level flow with a low developing in
the lee of the Rockies. This will cause moist southerly return
flow to the region. The tightening gradient will keep winds
breezy at times, stronger than we`ve seen for a few days.
Likewise, temperatures will be much warmer, with highs quickly
returning to the upper 80s and low 90s for Saturday and then 90s
will be widespread on Sunday and Monday.

Model solutions indicate that 70+ dewpoints will surge back
north. The highest dewpoint values will be across eastern
Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri, etc. That being said, this will
be quite a shock to the system after the cooler past week has
been. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are possible
especially along and east of Highway 81. Contrastingly, the
dryline will set up across western Kansas and the moisture
gradient will be visible where the drier air is able to mix out
and temps surge even higher...primarily western portions of
north central Kansas.

As June ends and July begins next week, temperatures look to
stay in the 90s while the trough persists out west with ridging
to the east of the Plains. Disturbances ejecting out of the
upper low in the west could cause a few sporadic precipitation
chances to impact the area next week, confidence in any details
is low.

There is an indication that the pattern will break down towards
the end of the work week and holiday weekend begins which could
allow for slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances over the
holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to IFR conditions likely through the late morning hours at
KEAR/KGRI. MVFR stratus is building over the area with KEAR at
MVFR already and reaching KGRI in the next couple of hours.
Ceilings are favored to lower near IFR at KEAR, but remain
higher at KGRI. Confidence in KEAR reaching IFR conditions is
too low to include a TEMPO group but one may be needed if the
IFR stratus sets up near/over the area. MVFR stratus is favored
to linger through at least the morning hours, and the exact
timing of stratus clearing in the afternoon is uncertain. Have
opted to go on the later side of model guidance. Late in the TAF
period MVFR-IFR stratus may redevelop over the area, though
guidance favors it returning just past the TAF period.

Light and northeast winds shift to the southeast winds
throughout the morning hours. During the afternoon hours,
southeast winds increase to 10-12kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion