Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

180
FXUS63 KOAX 131035
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
535 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds have developed behind a cold front this evening,
  with northwesterly gusts up to 45-60 mph. A High Wind Warning
  and Wind Advisory remain in effect for eastern Nebraska and
  western Iowa through 4 AM.

- Another round of strong winds and wintry weather (70-90%
  chance) is expected to impact the area Saturday night into
  Sunday.

- Cooler conditions return Sunday into Monday before a warming
  trend develops midweek, with highs potentially reaching the
  60s and 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Tonight and Friday...

A deepening low tracking along the US/Canada border has brought
warm, dry and windy conditions to the area today. A cold front
racing south across the region this evening has veered winds from
westerly to north-northwesterly, with strong CAA behind the front
and a 60-65 kt 850 mb speed max pivoting overhead, bringing a surge
of strong wind gusts. Gusts in the 45-60 mph have edged into
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa, where a High Wind Warning
remains in effect until 4 AM. Farther south, a Wind Advisory remains
in place along the I-80 corridor where gusts are favored to peak in
the 40-50 mph range. A few reflectivity returns have also been
pivoting around northeast Nebraska and western Iowa. Model soundings
indicate a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. However, there is the
potential for virga to aid in some additional downward momentum
transfer and bring a few isolated 60+ mph gusts to the surface early
Friday morning.

Winds will gradually diminish through the late morning as surface
high pressure pushes into the region. The surge of CAA will keep
Friday`s highs cooler, generally in the 40s to low 50s. Light snow
may graze far northeast Nebraska late Friday evening into early
Saturday as WAA and a weak FGEN band grazes the NE/SD border.
Moisture with this feature appears limited, with only a 20-40%
probability of 0.10 inches of snow across far northeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Sunday...

This weekend, an amplifying mid-level trough moving into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest will bring the next chance for
widespread precipitation to the region. Southeasterly low-level flow
and enhanced WAA ahead of the system will support mild temperatures
Saturday, with afternoon highs reaching the 50s across northeast
Nebraska and the 60s across southeast Nebraska before precipitation
chances arrive Saturday evening as an associated surface low tracks
into the region. PoPs currently peak in the 70-90% range Saturday
night before gradually tapering off through Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation type will likely vary through the event. Precipitation
is expected to begin as a rain, with an embedded thunderstorm or two
possible, before transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight and
eventually changing to all snow by Sunday morning as cooler air
filters into the region on the backside of the low. Both the GEFS
and EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble remain consistent in focusing the highest
snowfall probabilities across northeast Nebraska, with probabilities
decreasing southward. Ensemble guidance suggests a 70-90%
probability of at least one inch of snow across northeast Nebraska,
tapering off to around 10-20% near the NE/KS border. Both ensembles
also indicate a 30-50% probability of at least three inches of snow
across portions of northeast Nebraska. The main question
remaining is how the remainder of Sunday will play out. GEFS and
RRFS bring a final push a heavy snow along the deformation zone
Sunday afternoon while EPS pushes the system out a little
quicker and drier, helping to avoid this final push.

Gusty winds will be another concern, particularly on Sunday as a
tight pressure gradient develops on the backside of the departing
surface low. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance indicates a 80-100% probability
of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph and a 20-30% probability of gusts
reaching 58 mph. Blowing snow may become a concern. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will be quite variable, with anywhere from the
20s across northeast Nebraska over the fresh snowpack to the 40s
by the NE/KS border. This system will be one to monitor
closely, especially for those with travel plans this weekend.

Monday and Beyond...

Gusty northwesterly flow aloft will bring a chilly start to the work
week. Monday morning lows will be the coolest the area has seen in a
while, with the single digits for most. Wind chills are expected to
dip into the 10 to 20 degree below zero range as gusts continue into
the morning hours. Mondays highs are only expected to peak in the
20s to low 30s. The cooler pattern will be short-lived, however, as
broad ridging builds into the region by midweek. This will allow
temperatures to rebound into the 30s and 40s Tuesday, with highs
potentially reaching the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Friday.
Portions of east-central Nebraska may even have a chance (20-40%
probability, per the NBM) to hit the 80s by the end of the work week.

The warmer pattern may persist beyond midweek, as both the CPC 6-10
day and 8-14 day outlooks continue to favor above-normal
temperatures across the region, with probabilities in the 60-80%
range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with SCT-BKN clouds mainly at or above FL100. There are
some lower clouds (FL025-030) currently in parts of far
northeast NE into west-central IA, which are expected to remain
to the north and east of the terminal locations. There is a
20-30% chance of light snow at KOFK in the 14/03-05z timeframe.
However, confidence in that occurrence is presently too low to
include in the forecast. Gusty northwest winds this morning
gradually diminish through the day before switching to east this
evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

319
FXUS63 KGID 131051
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
551 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds turn back to the south and southeast by this afternoon
  and evening. Near-critical fire weather conditions are
  expected near and west of Highway 283.

- Saturday trends warmer and drier, with continued gusty south
  winds. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
  again for areas near and west of Highway 183.

- A storm system brings very strong winds, a mix of rain and
  snow, and a a significant cooldown late Saturday night through
  Sunday.

- The cold air will not last long though. Near record
  temperatures are expected to return by the middle to end of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Winds continue to decrease this morning, and will eventually
switch back to the south and southwest this afternoon. Winds
will remain light enough to prevent a significant fire weather
threat, but western areas could see gusts in the 20-25 MPH
range.

Saturday is trending towards a "sneaky" fire weather day. Near-
term models are hinting at stronger southerly winds, and the
warmup ahead of our next system will lead to at least near-
critical fire weather conditions. And it is possible to see at
least brief periods of Red-Flag conditions.

Northwest winds increase late Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a cold front sweeps through the area. An upper trough
may also result in light rain, changing to snow by sunrise
Sunday. That said, coverage/intensity of snow is still pretty
uncertain in central Nebraska/Kansas. Better chances for
meaningful (1.0"+) snow accumulation on Sunday is to our north
and east.

Winds continue to increase through the day on Sunday. Afternoon
wind gusts near 55 MPH are likely across the entire area, and
some areas could reach High Wind criteria (60+ MPH).

Sunday night into Monday will be very cold. Single digit low
temperatures and wind chills as low as -10 degrees are favored
for areas near and north of I-80. Another brief shot of light
snow is possible Monday night, but no accumulation is expected.

After that, a significant warmup is still on track for the
middle to end of next week. The latest NBM shows a 70 percent
chance for Grand Island to exceed record high temperatures on
each day March 18-20th. The current records for this three-day
stretch is: 80, 86, and 84 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Dry, windy and warm conditions persisted across the local area
today. This combination has led to dangerous fire weather
conditions, with multiple fires being reported across the
area. Expect winds to subside 5-15 MPH through the early
evening hours as the gradually shift and become more westerly in
the pre-frontal trough, before increasing again during the late
evening hours behind the approaching cold front. While no
precipitation is expected with this approaching front, expect a
distinct shift in winds and cold air advection to result in a
notably cooler day across the area tomorrow.

With a cooler airmass and lighter winds, fire weather concerns
should ease across the area on Friday before once again
increasing on Saturday as southerly winds return, helping to
advect in a warmer airmass along with breezy southeasterly winds.
While fire weather concerns do not look as critical or
widespread as what we have seen today, expect at least near
critical fire weather concerns to return for at least part
(mainly SW half) of the area during the afternoon hours.

This warm-up will be brief, however, as a stronger cold front
will cross the region on Sunday bringing below normal
temperatures, light snow and very strong winds to the local
area. At this point, winds in many ensemble members are pointing
at 50-60+ MPH wind gust potential, along with upwards of an
inch of snow focused mainly north of I-80. While the winds may
eventually justify a high wind warning for much of the area
Sunday, winds this strong combined with any snow could cause
some significant impacts Sunday, so will need to continue to
closely monitor this period.

Beyond Sunday, expect a very cold start to next week with lows
Monday morning likely falling into the single digits in our
typically coolest spots and highs Monday afternoon once again
struggling to climb out of the mid-30s. Thereafter, strong high
pressure will build in across the region from the west for a
potentially extended period of time - meaning dry and warm
conditions potentially finishing out much of the month of March.
Could even see the return of some 80 degree temperatures by next
Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (near 100%) in VFR conditions throught the
period with scattered high clouds continuing to move through the
area.

Winds turn to the south and southeast today. LLWS is expected
after 05Z tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion