Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

222
FXUS63 KOAX 222340
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
640 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into
  Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s.

- The heaviest rainfall is expected overnight tonight and
  Thursday night, with totals approaching 1 to 2 inches in
  southeast Nebraska.

- Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index
  values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show a mid-
level high centered near the Red River, with the region positioned
along the northern periphery of the associated ridge. Meanwhile, an
amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS has brought northwesterly
flow aloft and ushered CAA into the area. This, combined with
widespread cloud cover, has kept afternoon temperatures to the
70s.

A shortwave disturbance moving across the region has supported low-
level moisture transport and weak WAA across central and eastern
Nebraska, resulting in scattered showers and PoPs of 30-50%. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible, particularly across southeast
Nebraska, where weak but sufficient instability of 300-400 J/kg
MUCAPE is present. Shower coverage will gradually decrease this
evening, with most locations receiving a few hundredths of an
inch of precipitation and localized pockets peaking around
0.25".

Showers are expected to redevelop overnight as another shortwave
disturbance emerges from the Rockies and increases PoPs to 50-80%. A
band of moderate rainfall should develop from central into southeast
Nebraska near the nose of a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet.
Sufficient instability will remain across southeast Nebraska for a
few embedded thunderstorms. Some training of showers and storms will
be possible in this area, with an environment supportive of
efficient rainfall. PWAT values will approaching 2 inches (above the
90th percentile of sounding climatology), while warm-cloud depths
increase to around 4 to 4.5 km. Rainfall totals across the southern
portion of the forecast area could reach 1 to 1.5 inches.
Hydrologic concerns will need to be monitored, and WPC maintains
a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. However, recent dry
conditions and ongoing crop water usage should make flash-flood
guidance difficult to exceed. Rainfall amounts will decrease
farther north, where showers should remain lighter and more
scattered through the day. Persistent cloud cover will again
hold highs in the 70s on Thursday.

Showers will diminish Thursday afternoon before increasing again
Thursday evening and overnight as another shortwave disturbance
crosses the region. A renewed nocturnal low-level jet will support
widespread shower development, with POps of 60-90%. Efficient
rainfall ingredients will be in place, leading to localized bands of
0.75 to 1.25 inches depending on where the heaviest showers develop.
Precipitation chances will gradually decrease Friday morning and
afternoon, with skies beginning to clear from west to east. High
temperatures should recover into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Saturday and Beyond...

Mid- to upper-level riding will amplify and expand northward into
the region this weekend, resulting in a warming trend. Temperatures
at 850 mb are forecast to rise into the 25 to 30 degree C range and
should mix efficiently to the surface both days. Highs Saturday will
climb into the 90s, with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across
portions of east-central Nebraska. Low-level moisture transport and
evapotranspiration will push dewpoints into the 70s, resulting in
muggy conditions and heat index values near 100 degrees across much
of the area. Temperatures will increase further Sunday, with
widespread highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and peak
heat index values of 104 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory may
eventually be needed as forecast confidence increase.

Shortwave disturbances are expected to round the ridge early next
week, gradually dampening it and allowing temperatures to ease.
Highs should remain in the mid to upper 90s Monday before falling
into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday. Long-range
guidance remains inconsistent regards the tracks of these
disturbances, with some solutions keeping them farther north and
other bringing them through the local area. This uncertainty
supports lower confidence in forecasted highs and periodic
precipitation chances through the work week, with PoPs generally
ranging from 15- 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with lingering
ceilings at 5000-7000 ft. A few showers will continue this
evening, but latest trends suggest TAF sites should stay mostly
dry. Additional shower and storm development is expected early
Thursday, with the highest chances moving toward LNK in the
afternoon and remaining southwest of OMA and OFK. Can`t
completely rule out a brief drop to MVFR with any heavier
showers. Otherwise, expect light and northeasterly winds
overnight to settle at southeasterly Thursday morning with
speeds hovering around 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

457
FXUS63 KGID 222330
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple rounds of beneficial showers and non-severe
  thunderstorms tonight through Friday morning.

- Heat returns this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Showers and a few weak t-storms persist near and north of I-80
as of early afternoon. This will gradually clear through the
afternoon, but lingering cloud cover will keep our
northern/eastern zones significantly cooler than further
southwest that have seen mostly sunny skies nearly all day.

After a dry evening, scattered showers and a few t-storms
redevelop early Thursday morning, aided by convergence in the
850-700mb layer. Instability is limited, so severe weather is
not expected, but this does have the potential to be produce
heavier rain than Wednesday morning. Based on the 12Z HREF, localized
rain totals of 1.00-2.50" are possible (10% chance), with more
widespread totals in the 0.15-0.75" range.

Much like Wednesday, rain will clear out in the afternoon,
allowing temperatures to rebound to the mid 70s to near 90
degrees (warmest in the southwest). One more round of showers
and thunderstorms is expected to develop Thursday evening.
Given the relative warmth in portions of KS, a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out in these areas, but widespread strong to
severe storms are not expected.

Friday will dry out and trend warmer, and this trend will
continue into the weekend. Widespread highs in the 90s are
expected to return for Saturday, and many areas will approach
100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Relatively high surface moisture
will result in quite high heat index values. At this point, it
appears likely (70%) that we will exceed 105 degree heat
indices, and 110 degree heat indices are very possible (30%).


This wave of extreme heat looks to be relatively short-lived,
though. Global ensembles favor a return to more seasonable
warmth for the middle to end of next week. This will also be
accompanied by additional chances for rain/t-storms, although
there is some uncertainty on how widespread/beneficial these
will be.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low MVFR to potentially IFR conditions possible Thursday
morning. Otherwise predominantly VFR conditions favored during
TAF period. A band of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
is expected to develop over KEAR/KGRI after midnight. In
stronger showers, visibility and ceilings could fall below VFR.
After sunrise on Thursday, low stratus develops over the area
with prevailing MVFR to potentially IFR CIGS during the late
morning-early afternoon hours. Confidence in the location or
occurrence of IFR conditions is too low to include in the TAF at
this time, for now have indicated the potential with a SCT009
group. Showers/storms come to an end during the early afternoon,
first at KEAR then KGRI, with ceilings improving to VFR. Used
Prob30 groups to indicate the broad time when embedded
thunderstorms are possible in a broader rain shield. Easterly
winds shift to the southeast overnight, increasing during the
afternoon hours on Thursday with gusts around 20kts possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion