Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

074
FXUS63 KOAX 131047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming
  week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- Rain chances remain below 5% through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Tonight:

Satellite imagery this evening shows a void of activity over the
Central Plains, guarded by high surface pressure to the north of
convective activity across the southern tier of the CONUS while
a dominant mid/upper ridge continues to shuffle away any
shortwaves to the north of the area. Dewpoints have recovered
once again this evening with values pushing into the upper 60s
and low 70s, remaining higher than most guidance and once again
that patchy fog may be more likely than models forecast it to
be. With low temperature values forecast to dip into the mid
60s, there isn`t as much room to cool below the afternoon
crossover temperatures in addition to slightly windier
conditions compared to last night. As of now, the areas most
likely to see fog (mostly after 3 AM) would be valleys in
southwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska where dewpoint values
currently sit in the 70s.

Monday and Beyond:

The general forecast for the week remains on track for increasing
heat, driven by the aforementioned mid/upper ridge that will see
little to challenge it and incur a pattern change. An impressive low-
level thermal ridge is placed from the Intermountain West into the
High Plains and Dakotas, and is forecast to move more in line with
the forecast area through the week as the ridge remains broad
but decreases in amplitude. Highs around 90 degrees Monday
afternoon will see a daily 2-3 degree increase through Friday,
where highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and near 100 degrees hold
heading into the weekend. Of equal importance, temperature
relief will be hard to come by overnight, as lows Friday onward
struggle to reach 75 degrees for much of southeast Nebraska into
southwest Iowa, making it difficult for those outdoors or
without air conditioning. The combination of these two things
could lead to larger heat stress for the area, especially for
urban areas, and we`re increasing in confidence that we may
issue some sort of advisory for Friday/Saturday (30-40% chance).

Taking a look at precipitation chances, the continued strength of
the ridging pattern and lack of deeper southerly flow will
disappoint those looking for rain. We`ll have to rely on storms (or
remnants there of) that would initiate outside of the forecast and
drift into the area. Some of the global models indicate that we
could see northwestward-moving showers in the area as storms are
steered by the clockwise columnar flow late this week, but
chances for rain are better (15-25% chance) late this weekend
into early next week as a stronger shortwave drags a frontal
passage through the area. Other than that, the best bet for any
wetness at the surface will continue to be overnight/early
morning fog that will rely on cooling past the previous
afternoons` dewpoints and quiet winds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Morning very
patchy fog will dissipate over the next couple hours with no
aviation impacts anticipated at this time. Southeast winds
continue across the area under clear skies.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

253
FXUS63 KGID 131143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
643 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The forecast remains dry through next Sunday.

- Seasonally warm temperatures early in the week will start to
  climb a bit by week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Upper level high pressure in western South Dakota and surface
high pressure in eastern Nebraska and Iowa are firmly in
control. Skies remain clear across south central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. Yesterday/Sunday was basically a normal
day for July 12 in terms of temperatures.

No significant changes were made to the forecast. We may see
a bit of patchy fog early today. Otherwise, temperatures to
start the week may be a degree or two warmer, but highs later
in the week will start to climb deeper into the 90s in general.
Models have been hesitant to raise dewpoints as the significant
evapotranspiration this time of year seems to be offset by the
subsidence of the near upper level high pressure. The result is
heat index values are also a bit lower. They do approach 100
degrees by Friday and Saturday as the temperatures climb.

The forecast is dry through Sunday. Don`t know if its wise to
say no chance of rain in the 7 to 10 day period too, but it
sure looks mostly dry through the 22nd, even though the upper
ridge breaks down pretty quickly next weekend and weak front
may slip through the area by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast through the forecast period for
both KGRI and KEAR. Upper level high pressure will keep the
sky basically cloudy with winds slide from south to southeast
at times, occasionally pushing a sustained 12 knots this
afternoon at both airports.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion