Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

208
FXUS63 KOAX 291904
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues today and Tuesday across the region.
  Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect as
  heat index values climb into the 105-112 range today.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening,
  particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Strong winds are
  expected with any storms that develop; however, storms may
  also produce some hail and an isolated tornado.

- Temperatures remain in the 90s through the end of the
  forecast. Daily chances for shower/thunderstorm activity are
  expected for at least a portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The forecast period begins with high pressure over the Southeastern
U.S. and up into the Ohio River Valley, and an upper low situated
over central Montana and the Wyoming Bighorns. The forecast area is
under southwest flow. For the rest of today, expect temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 90s. A few low 100s cannot be entirely ruled
out. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid-70s, making things
feel very unpleasant. Heat index values are expected to peak around
105-111 this afternoon for areas along and south of a line from
Columbus to Tekamah. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect today for much of our area.

A cold front is pushing east across Nebraska this afternoon. The
front has made it through Ainsworth, Thedford and McCook (temps=80s,
west-northwesterly winds). Expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the front this evening into tonight. MLCAPE values of
3500+ J/kg, DCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg, and steep lapse rates are
expected. There is potential for two rounds of storms tonight. The
first round would be this evening beginning after 6pm. There is
still some uncertainty of how this first wave will develop. Models
are coming into better agreement on the second wave of
precipitation, picking up on a line of thunderstorms developing
across the western portions of the CWA this evening between
03-05Z and lifting to the northeast. The HRRR has come in pretty
aggressive with a cluster of storms impacting northeastern
Nebraska, potentially with some strong winds associated with any
thunderstorms that develop. Hail and an isolated tornado may
also be possible.

Little reprieve is expected Monday night, lows will fall into the
upper 60s to mid-70s for areas along and north of Hwy 92. Areas
along and south of the I-80 corridor will fall into the mid 70s.
Tuesday highs will rise into the mid to upper 90s for most areas.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday with highs
ranging from the low to mid-90s. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday
evenings as a couple of disturbances move through the region.

Thursday through the end of the forecast period: The Great Plains
remain under southwest flow with a series of shortwave troughs
moving across the region. Expect widespread 90s each day with lows
in the 60s and 70s. Daily thunderstorm chances are expected across
at least a portion of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions persist at the terminals this afternoon. Expect a
possibility for a few thunderstorms between 03Z and 07Z at KOFK;
however, timing and location of storm development is still a
little up in the air. KOMA and KLNK have a lower chance of
thunderstorm impacts tonight. LLWS is expected to develop at
KOMA and KLNK after 04Z, continuing through around 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ052-053.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-034-044-045-
     050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-
     055.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

884
FXUS63 KGID 291948
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
248 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for many locations east of
  Highway 281 today until 9 PM.

- Severe storms may impact parts of the area this evening into
  tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

- Severe storms will again be a threat Tuesday evening into
  Tuesday night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

- Strong to severe storms will again be possible on Wednesday.
  Details are more uncertain than the previous 2 days.

- Severe storms may impact portions of the area during the
  evening hours on July 4th. Details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

An upper trough is over the western half of the country with an
upper low over Montana and another upper low over California. An
upper level ridge is over the extends from the Gulf Coast to the
Great Lakes. South central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas are under the transition zone between the upper trough and
upper ridge. A surface low is across the area with breezy south to
southwest winds. These conditions will result in temperatures
heating up into the 90s and low 100s this afternoon. Heat index
values today are expected to rise to around 105 to near 110 for many
areas east of Highway 281 due to higher dewpoint temperatures. This
area is in a Heat Advisory until 9 PM this evening.

All of this heat and moisture is expected to result in very high
CAPE values this afternoon (over 1,000 J/kg to over 5,000 J/kg). 0
to 6 km wind shear will also be fairly high (25 to 50 knots). Mid-
level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ degrees C/km this afternoon into this
evening. A weak cold front is expected to move into the area this
evening into tonight and will provide a focus and an additional
source of lift for thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms may
develop this evening into tonight based on the above mentioned
conditions. The hindering factor in storm development across the
area may be a strong enough CAP to overcome any atmospheric lift. If
storms overcome the CAP, they will likely become strong to severe.
The 14z HRRR shows storms beginning to develop across the area
between 8 and 9 PM this evening and continuing until around 2 AM.
The 12z NAM is not really showing any storm development across the
forecast area (it shows development across NE Nebraska). The main
hazards with any storm would be hail up to around half dollar size
and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. Low temperatures tonight are
expected to range from the low 60s to upper 70s.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. Showers and thunderstorms may develop
across portions of the area beginning Tuesday afternoon. Chances
will increase up to 50% Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.
Some of these storms may become strong to severe in the evening and
overnight hours with high CAPE values (mostly between 3,000 to
4,000+ J/kg), wind shear up to 50 knots across portions of the area,
and mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ degrees C/km. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats. Storms may develop along
the stalled cold front from the day before. Some models don`t show
any storms. Rain and storm chances increase up to around 50% Tuesday
evening and overnight. Low temperatures tomorrow night will
generally range from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Similar high temperatures will be present on Wednesday as on
Tuesday. Showers and storms will again be possible Wednesday
afternoon (up to 20% chance) and evening/overnight (up to near 60%
chance). A few of those storms may become strong to severe but the
parameters are not quite as high as the previous 2 days so not
expecting as widespread/intense severe weather. Winds will
strengthen out of the south on Thursday with temperatures warming up
into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. Temperatures will heat up even
more on Friday with highs in the 90s to low 100s. Temperatures have
the potential to heat up even more (mainly south of I-80) on
Saturday (4th of July) in advance of an approaching cold front. The
degree of heating is somewhat uncertain at this point but some
locations across north central Kansas could reach 105 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop (especially across northern
portions of the area along and north of I-80) Saturday evening and
overnight. These storms may become strong to severe given high CAPE,
wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. Cooler temperatures are
expected on Sunday with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours outside of any
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are possible (up to a 50% chance) from
around 01z to 04z. Wind shear is expected from around 03z to
08z. Winds will be gusty (up to around 25 to 30 knots) this
afternoon out of the southwest to south. Winds will weaken this
evening and will be out of the southeast to south. Winds will
begin to shift to the north around 12z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-064-076-
     077-086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion