Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

201
FXUS63 KOAX 262110
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel
  impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The
  highest chances will be in far northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa where there is a 50-60% chance of at least an
  inch of snow.

- Winter weather is expected to continue to impact travel
  through Saturday, with additional snow combined with gusty
  winds for much of the area. Snowfall trends have increased
  slightly, so if you have travel plans, consider delaying
  them.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday`s system, with highs mostly
  in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens
  through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features yesterday`s windy system
continuing to push into the Great Lakes region, while northwesterly
flow pours in from the Pacific Northwest. Taking a look at the
surface, a high pressure axis extends from the western Dakotas
through central Nebraska and Kansas, with a front stretching up the
Rocky Mountain Front Range. That high pressure will keep today
and tomorrow quiet and cool with highs nearly identical, topping
out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Gusts today in the 20-25 mph
range will fall off this evening for very quiet winds tomorrow,
making for an excellent holiday.

Friday and Saturday:

By Friday, we begin to see a Pacific Northwest mid/upper trough
begin to push into the Interior West, trailed by a clipper system
diving southeastward from BC/Alberta. Leftover high pressure to the
east of the area along with falling surface pressure in the High
Plains will help set up a strong gradient between the two across
the Great Plains, ramping up winds during the day. In addition,
strong warm air advection will also develop, providing strong
lift that will materialize a northwest-to-southeast oriented
band of snow (with some rain mixing in to the southern end of
it). This band will likely begin showing up on radar Friday
morning, but a very dry boundary layer and dewpoint depressions
as high as 20 degrees will work to sublimate/evaporate
flakes/drops initially. This band should start out in south-
central SD and eastern Nebraska 6 AM, before shifting eastward
gradually over time. High resolution guidance has different
ideas from one model to the next in terms of its speed, which
will affect how much dry air will be overcome by the falling
precipitation. It seems like a safe bet to expect travel
difficulties from minor snow accumulations (generally less than
an inch), further complicated by strong winds with gusts of
25-35+ mph. Areas south of Interstate 80 look poised only see a
trace or less.

Now onto Saturday`s winter system... Synoptically, the
aforementioned forcing from the clipper and the Pacific Northwest
trough are set to come together over the forecast area,
significantly deepening the surface pressure (whose low passes
across Kansas and Missouri), bringing widespread snowfall to the
area. Friday`s banded precipitation will serve as the
northeastern edge of the precipitation Saturday, filling in to
the southwest with the abundant forcing for ascent. As this
system fills in, it will pivot across Iowa and eject to the
east-northeast, leaving us dry by Sunday. Soundings show plenty
of lift in throughout the column, including the dendritic
growth zone meaning that healthy snow ratios will come into
play.

There are still quite a few things that are yet to be nailed down
for this system, but there are things that we can say with
certainty. First thing is that there is significant boom-or-bust
potential for snowfall amounts. Depending on how the two combining
waves phase together, we could see a potent band develop over
eastern Nebraska and track into Iowa, or it may wait to develop over
there. Amounts will drop to below 2 inches from 7+ over a short
distance. The second certainty is that Iowa will be a direct
hit for very disruptive snowfall. We would argue against travel
plans in general with the wintry precipitation developing
Saturday, but urge those going to the north or east to
reconsider. The last one is that very strong winds will
accompany this system, with gusts potentially of 40-50 mph with
lingering snowfall, making for near whiteout conditions with
even moderate snowfall.

Now onto some uncertainties...  Latest model runs continue to
exhibit significant spread between them, with the ECMWF and GEFS
showing the higher potential for snowfall and keeping a deep
isothermal layer in the lowest 300 mb below freezing while the NAM
has that isothermal layer touching freezing and eating away at snow
potential. In addition, it keeps strong lift over the area early
Saturday without any dendrites to introduce a freezing drizzle risk
before snow starts. If we do have a warmer thermal profile and
questionable moisture aloft, we`ll be dealing with a less snowy, but
just as gross Saturday with icy roads and a sloppy wintry mix as
opposed to snowy roads.

As of now, we`ve bumped up the forecast slightly, with amounts
closer to a dusting near Falls City while areas of western Iowa see
5+ inches. If we do see snow boom (rather than bust), expect to see
a west-to-east band of accumulations reaching 4-6 inches or more. As
of now, Interstate 80 and areas north are fair game for this band.
Snowfall is expected to fill in across eastern Nebraska and far
western Iowa early Saturday, with snowfall peaking during the late
morning and early afternoon hours, before quickly tapering
off/moving east after 6 PM. Once again, if you can avoid travel
Saturday, please do so. Travel may become impossible if you plan on
driving very far into Iowa where 8+ inches are forecast.

Sunday and Beyond:

The main story of the latter forecast period continues to be
bitterly cold temperatures, which arrive Sunday and last through
Tuesday morning. As Saturday`s system deepens and pivots to the east
of the forecast area, the jet stream takes a dip southward,
reinforced by northerly 500 mb flow and aided by high pressure at
the surface to get cool and stay cool through this time. Rounding
the base of the dipping jet stream will be a mid/upper wave that
drags its axis through eastern Nebraska and Iowa Monday.
Deterministic model soundings show a distinctly colder thermal
profile/greater DGZ depth compared to Saturday, but with less
forcing for ascent to curb overall snow amounts. Previous runs in
the global models had a more southern lean to the snow potential,
which has shifted slightly northward, but still primarily affecting
areas along and south of Interstate 80. Morning wind chills will be
something to watch out for, with Sunday and Tuesday seeing single to
below-zero conditions in the morning, with the coldest of the three
being Monday (ranging from 0 to 10 below zero). Be sure to bundle up
on the way out the door or make sure those waiting at the bus stop
are prepared for it!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Northwesterly winds are in place to start the TAF period,
holding onto gusts to around 20 kts through the mid-to-late
afternoon before diminishing to speeds of 5 kts or less
overnight out of the same direction. Low clouds have continued
to erode this morning, with all-VFR conditions expected to
settle in by 19z, lasting through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

491
FXUS63 KGID 262053
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
253 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few sprinkles/flurries possible southwest of the Tri-Cities
  this evening.

- Dry on Thanksgiving with highs in the low-mid 40s and partly
  to mostly sunny skies.

- Chances for snow arrive Friday night-Saturday morning. Snow falling
  combined with northwest winds gusting 35-45mph will result in
  periods of poor visibility.

- Snow accumulations range from a dusting (central/west) to an
  inch (east).

- Sub-Zero wind chills possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are sitting below their climatological
normals, in the upper 30s to low 40s. A passing disturbance brings a
chance for sprinkles/flurries this evening southwest of the Tri-
Cities, but dry air near the surface will inhibit/prevent
accumulations. Lows tonight drop into the mid teens to mid 20s under
mostly cloudy skies.

Thanksgiving...

Overall, Thanksgiving Day looks to be quiet weather-wise as the area
sits under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 40s and partly
to mostly sunny skies.

Friday and Saturday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Friday ahead of an
approaching trough. Highs on Friday range from the upper 30s across
northeastern portions of the area to the upper 40s across the
southwest. Southerly winds will be breezy, gusting 25-30mph. Models
remain consistent in keeping the initial wave of precipitation
northeast of the area, resulting in dry weather during the
daytime hours on Friday.

This quickly changes Friday night as the trough and surface low move
into the Plains. The low will be centered over Kansas Friday night-
Saturday morning, with a warm front residing along the NE/KS border.
PoPs increase after midnight as precipitation fills in around
the low. As it does, cold air wraps into the system with a
transition from rain to snow Saturday morning. This could result
in a brief period of mixed precipitation, and could result in
slick roads when combined with dropping temperatures. Winds
gusts quickly ramp Saturday morning along the backside of the
low. Northwest winds gusting 35-45mph are expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday. Gusty winds combined with any falling
snow will result in poor visibility for those
outdoors/traveling. Snow ends from west to east late Saturday
morning-evening as the system moves into the Midwest. Most of
the area will see a dusting to an inch of snow. Eastern-
Northeastern portions of the area are most likely to see 1" or
more of snowfall, with the least accumulations west of Highway
183. Given the holiday weekend and increased travel it`s worth
repeating that those traveling on Saturday will experience poor
visibility in falling snow.

Uncertainties:

The biggest uncertainties with the forecast are how quickly
precipitation wraps around the low, and how much snowfall will occur
across eastern portions of the area. The high and low end scenarios
for precipitation coverage can be seen well when comparing the
GFS/NAM to the ECMWF/GDPS. The 12z GFS/NAM show light rain/snow
Friday night-Saturday morning. A band of heavier snow then develops
during the mid morning hours on Saturday across eastern/northeastern
portions of the area which exits the area Saturday afternoon. This
scenario would result in most of the forecast area seeing less than
an inch of snow, with 1" possible mainly along/east of Highway 81.
The heavier solution as shown by the 12z ECMWF/GDPS would see a band
of heavier snow develop by sunrise and be further west. This would
result in more widespread chances to see 1" of snow, with far
eastern portions of the area seeing 2-3" of snow. It`s also worth
noting that GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles have shown a gradual westward
shift in the chance for 3" of snow (10-20% chance along/east of
Highway 81). There is still plenty of time for things to change, so
keep a close eye on the forecast, especially for those traveling on
Saturday.

Sunday Onwards....

Cold air will be in place over the area Sunday morning, with lows in
the single digits to low teens and wind chill values near to below
zero! Highs on Sunday only climb into the 20s. The next shortwave
moves into the plains Sunday night Monday. Models continue to show
that any snow that does fall with this system will remain light (a
dusting), and be most likely along/south of the NE-KS border. Sub-
zero wind chills are possible again Monday morning, with highs once
again confined to the 20s. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with
highs climbing above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT-BKN mid-level
clouds move over the area this evening, clearing by the early
morning hours on Thursday. Northwest winds become light and
variable this evening, with light and variable winds continuing
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion