Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

859
FXUS63 KOAX 050514
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms overnight through Wednesday morning (60-90%
  chance). A few overnight could produce quarter-size hail,
  strong winds, and localized flash flooding.

- Milder temperatures through Thursday warming back up going
  into the weekend. Seasonably warm weather expected over the
  weekend.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north. A small
  amount may be found at the surface. Most will be elevated and
  may produce some hazy skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

We have a lull in storm activity this evening. Looking at
the surface analysis, the cold front has stalled south of the
Kansas state line as high pressure has spread across eastern
Nebraska. Over the next few hours we`ll see the nocturnal low-
level jet ramp up triggering more showers and storms north of
the surface front in a region with moderate elevated instability
and 40-50 kt of shear through the cloud layer. This could lead
to some more organized storm development capable of producing
quarter-size hail and strong to damaging winds in addition to
locally heavy rainfall. While the severe threat still seems
fairly marginal, it will greatly depend on the amount of
elevated instability can be generated as the LLJ advects warmer
air just above the frontal boundary while the Canadian High
pulls cooler air south.

Expect storms to start to redevelop around 11pm along a
corridor near and just south of I-80, rapidly expanding in
coverage and tracking east into Iowa overnight. Storm motions
parallel to the front would support some training of storms
overnight which could lead to localized flash flooding,
especially over our southwest Iowa counties into Wednesday
morning. Once the first round clears around 7am, CAMs show a
potential second wave that will move in shortly after, bringing
a more scattered chance for mostly showers at this point. The
nocturnal low-level jet should be waning, decreasing any
elevated instability we have left that isn`t chewed through by
the overnight storms. Rain chances should taper off through the
afternoon.

Taking a step back and looking at the upper-level pattern, we`re
seeing a trough in the jet stream pull this Canadian air mass
south into the Central Plains, and these storms are developing
on the southern edge of this air mass. Wednesday night into
Thursday we`ll start to see this Canadian surface high slide
eastward, bringing back southerly low-level flow while the ridge
over the Desert Southwest starts to expand eastward. This will
start our warming trend going into the weekend. Temperatures
will still be very pleasant on Thursday with highs in the low-
to-mid 80s. Temperatures will get warmer each day going into the
weekend with southerly flow only strengthening ahead of a
developing area of low pressure on the lee-side of the Rockies.
This will amplify the low-level jet Friday into Saturday
helping push temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s for
highs over the weekend.

With a strong nocturnal low-level jet in place as well as active
and diffluent northwesterly flow at the jet level, we could see
a chance for nocturnal storms return Saturday night into Sunday,
and again with a more substantial shortwave Sunday night into
Monday. The pattern going into next week looks to hold fairly
steady, characterized by a ridge over the Desert Southwest and
a broad trough over the Ohio River Valley. This should keep us
in the transition zone under northwesterly flow aloft, giving us
seasonably warm temperatures and more chances for showers and
storms through the week. This is reflected in the CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook by a forecast leaning warmer and wetter.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A broken line of showers and storms is observed at KLNK and KOMA
early this morning. Ceilings as a result have dropped to MVFR,
with IFR expected to reach terminals within the next few hours.
Storms could have strong winds and heavy rain, temporarily
reducing visby to MVFR. Have kept -TSRA mentions in TAFs, with
transition to -SHRA thereafter. IFR ceilings linger through mid
to late morning before slowly rising to MVFR/VFR thereafter.
Winds remain from the north northeast throughout the period
under 12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

648
FXUS63 KGID 050737
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
237 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of showers/thunderstorms is expected (50-70%) in
  south central Nebraska this morning between 4-11AM, mainly
  along and south of I-80. Severe weather is not expected with
  this activity.

- Areas of patchy fog is possible (40-70%) Wednesday
  night/Thursday morning.

- Temperatures are expected to increase after today, reaching
  the mid to upper 90s by Saturday. Heat index values over 100
  can`t be ruled out Saturday through Monday, especially in
  north central Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Scattered showers/thunderstorms have continued to develop in the
eastern portion of the area (mainly Clay/Hamilton counties and east)
tonight. While there is some synoptic support for these scattered
storms, namely warm air advection and low-level convergence along
the nose of the developing low-level jet, these storms are not
expected to become severe, as CAPE and shear look to be more limited
the further west you go. Nonetheless, a few stronger storms may
produce some small hail (less than 1 inch) and gusty winds up to 50
MPH.

Another storm cluster is expected across south central Nebraska this
morning (mainly between 4-11AM), as a vorticity maximum digs into
the area from the west. These storms are expected to line up along
and south of I-80, with probabilities between 50-70%. However,
some spurious showers/storms are possible (20-40%) outside this
corridor. Recent model guidance has trended downward in rainfall
accumulation through this afternoon, with only a 20-40% chance
of seeing greater than a quarter of an inch, although locally
higher amounts of up to an inch are possible in heavier cores.
Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity, as next
to zero CAPE is expected in the area through the early
afternoon.

Besides the  chances through the early afternoon, relatively
calm easterly winds around 5-10 MPH are expected through the
afternoon as a high pressure center continues to develop across
the region. Prolonged cloud cover through most of the afternoon
will keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Areas of patchy fog may develop tomorrow night, as weak surface flow
dominates the area. Current HREF/REFS guidance shows between a 40-
70% chance of seeing visibilities drop below 1 mile by sunrise
Thursday morning through south central Nebraska, although the
coverage of this fog is uncertain.

After today, temperatures look to increase into the mid to upper 90s
through at least Sunday as an upper-level ridge expands eastward.
Heat index values up over 100 are possible Saturday through Monday,
especially in north central Kansas. However, there is some
uncertainty with the duration of this heat, as overall uncertainty
in the synoptic pattern increases post Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Currently through this evening...

A swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make
their way east across the forecast area today...a trend that
will continue on through the rest of this afternoon. Looking
aloft...upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal
flow in place across the region. Across the CONUS, upper level
low pressure is spinning in the GA/SC area, while the main area
of high pressure centered over the Desert SW is being dampened
by low pressure/broad troughing over much of central/western
Canada into the northern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows
shortwave disturbances embedded in the main overall flow...one
of which is helping drive the ongoing activity across the
forecast area. At the surface, the forecast sits just north of
the main cold front...which has stalled some, currently sitting
from SW/south central KS up into ESErn IA. Behind this frontal
boundary, winds have been gusty (esp. by August standards) out
of the NNE...gusts have mainly been around 25-30 MPH. Between
the plentiful cloud cover, scattered precipitation and sitting
on the north side of the frontal boundary...not surprising that
in spots temperatures have been struggling so far today. By the
time it`s all said and done...forecast highs across southern
areas will turn out alright...but some spots across south
central NE may not end up even hitting 70 degrees. Still some
time to recover behind this activity anywhere there are breaks
in the cloud cover.

For the rest of today...main concern lies with the ongoing
activity. There have been spots at times that have perked up
in strength...but the overall environment is not supportive of a
notable severe weather threat. Not out of the question that
some storms could be strong...with gusty winds/small hail the
main threats. Instability is sitting around 500-1000 j/kg across
central/NErn areas, closer to 1500 j/kg in the SE...but both
low and mid level lapse rates are pretty low. Timing of the main
swath has it clearing the forecast area early this
evening...and while there could be some isolated lingering
activity, models showing a relative lull...with better lift
along an increasing LLJ looking to focus just off to our east.

Later tonight through Wednesday...

Mainly after midnight tonight, models showing another embedded
weaker shortwave disturbance making its way out of the Rockies
and onto the Plains...ushering the next chance for
showers/thunderstorms. Higher-res models aren`t in too bad of
agreement showing that as far as timing goes...the better
chances hold off until closer to/after 09Z. Little more
uncertainty with the overall coverage initially, so PoPs remain
broad with chances in place CWA-wide. The overall best chances
run roughly from around sunrise through the early afternoon
hours...dropping off from west to east, possibly dry area-wide
by mid-afternoon. The highest chances remain focused through the
heart of the forecast area, roughly from I-80 to near the state
line...though at least 20-30 percent chances are outside that
corridor to cover the rest of the area. Not anticipating this
activity to be severe...with the SPC Day 2 outlook remaining
well outside our boundaries.

At the surface, winds won`t be as gusty as they have been
today...as high pressure slides through the area. Winds turn
more easterly with time, speeds topping out around 10 MPH. The
daytime precipitation chances and lingering cloud cover make for
a tricky temperature forecast...as there will be some
opportunity to recover if precip does in fact clear out by mid-
afternoon and we can get breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast
highs through the central portions of the area are in the lower
70s, with mid-70s to the north and south.

Thursday and on...

Looking toward the end of this week on into the start of next
week...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the
forecast. Big picture-wise...models continue to show the upper
level pattern through this timeframe flexing to varying
degrees of west-northwest flow. The main area of upper level
high pressure remains centered generally over the Desert SW...at
times able to amplify a bit more early-on thanks to deeper
troughing over portions of the eastern CONUS...but then is
dampened by additional activity moving onto western Canada/far
NNWrn CONUS. Spotty, generally low-end preciptiation chances
remain in the forecast...as there is still the potential for
periodic shortwave disturbances to push through the region...but
confidence in the timing and tracking of any of these
disturbances is pretty low at this point.

Forecast continues to show a warming trend from the 70s of
Wednesday...with low-mid 80s on Thursday increasing into the 90s-
near 100 for this weekend/Monday. Heat index values around 100-105
are not out of the question Sat-Mon, especially for the southern
half of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
The main issues/uncertainties continue to involve: 1) how far
into the period does MVFR ceiling prevail before improving to
VFR?...2) The likelihood/areal coverage of showers/non-severe
thunderstorms this morning...3) Could some fog try to develop
very late in the period Wednesday night and reduce visibility to
sub-VFR? There is also an outside chance that visibility could
briefly be reduced to sub-VFR if any heavier downpours pass
overhead this morning. As for winds, assuming no "surprise"
enhancement from convective outflow, they will be a very minimal
issue, with sustained speeds at-or-below 10KT throughout, as
direction prevails northeasterly to east-northeastly for the
most part.

- Ceiling/visibility trends/uncertainties:
Similar to previous set of TAFs, there is some uncertainty
regarding exactly when the ongoing MVFR ceilings lift and/or
scatter out to VFR. While have continued to lean a bit more
toward the "pessimistic" (later) side, did move up outright VFR
by one hour to 19Z (admittedly this could easily end up being
off by a few hours either way so be open to adjustments). Once
VFR returns, there is high confidence in clear/mostly clear
skies through the rest of the period, although will need to
watch the tail end of the period (mainly toward 05-06Z) for the
possible onset of initial fog development...which could end up
being more of an issue for the next TAF issuance.

- Shower/thunderstorm potential:
While at least spotty/isolated showers and weak thunderstorms
could potentially develop anytime early this morning, have stuck
with the previously-advertised 10-16Z time frame for a PROB30
group...as that is the main most favored window for somewhat
more widespread convection at least in the general area.
Considered introducing a higher-confidence TEMPO group to a part
of this time, but with higher-res models still suggesting that
the bulk of this activity could remain JUST south of
KEAR/KGRI...stuck with PROB30 for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Scott
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion