Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

815
FXUS63 KOAX 231655
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1155 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain chances (15-30%) continue through Sunday
  morning.

- Northwest winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph will lead to
  very high to extreme fire danger today. A Wind Advisory and
  RED FLAG WARNING are in effect.

- It will be warmer next week - especially on Tuesday, Thursday,
  and Friday - leading to fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Here at the surface, we`re enjoying temperatures in the forties
and fifties with weak radar returns showing up on KOAX. Few
observations of precip have been recorded. The dry lowest 10
kft has slowly saturated from top to bottom, leading to a couple
of tips of the rain bucket. A surface low sits over KRWF (SW
MN). Water vapor imagery betrays the presence of a vigorous
shortwave directly overhead of the surface low with a cold
front draped through farthest southeast Nebraska.

At 1700 ft AGL this morning, winds are currently averaging
about 35 knots out of the northwest. Deep mixing to as high as 7kft
AGL later this afternoon should produce wind gusts of up to 45
knots. Multiple hours of sustained speeds of 20-30 knots have
prompted the continuance of a WIND ADVISORY through 7pm Sunday
for northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa.

These strong winds will be a primary ingredient of the extreme
fire danger in northeast Nebraska but also along the Kansas
state line. Have currently left the midsection of the forecast
area headline free due to the recent snowfall / snowmelt from
earlier this week. Expect day staff to collaborate with fire
partners to get a better reading on where fuels are readiest to
ignite. This may lead to alterations in the headline`s
perimeters later today. Regardless, expect the deep mixing and
strong winds to help push RH values to 20-25% later this
afternoon where this week`s snow was scant. As a result, the
FIRE WEATHER WATCH has been replaced by a RED FLAG WARNING.

High temperatures won`t be as warm as they were on Saturday,
but remain (just) above normal behind the departing cold front.

.MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...

Behind the departing system, this area will be under
northwesterly flow as a ridge builds over the PACNW. This will
allow south-westerly return flow to help temperatures rebound
Monday. A cold front on Tuesday will bring another round of
elevated fire danger thanks to the arrival of NW gusts of up to
30 knots.

.SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...

Precipitation chances will wait mostly for the week`s second
half when regular bouts of warm-air-advection bring opportunities
for regular showers or thunder. Best chances wait for the
week`s completion on Friday night / Saturday when a potent
shortwave / low approaches from the west.

Temps are expected to peak on Friday as the thermal ridge axis
pushes through the CWA. Some locations may manage 80F on a
Friday afternoon. That`s fortuitous timing. But especially warm
weather in a drought- beset March means fire weather concerns
will once again be on the mind of the operational meteorologist.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Latest
CAM data suggest the potential for isolated to widely scattered
showers (10-20% PoPs) moving into the area this afternoon into
early evening, and again toward midday on Monday. In either
case, confidence in precipitation occurrence at the terminal
locations is too low to include in the forecast. Strong
northwest winds with gusts around 35 kt will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon before diminishing to below 12 kt
by 02-03z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030-031-068-088>093.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

759
FXUS63 KGID 231129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather again today thanks to strong NW winds
  (gusts 35-45 MPH) and dry air. At least elevated to near-
  critical conditions will be possible each afternoon this week,
  but confidence on any outright-critical days remains low.

- Temperatures will remain above normal over the next week with
  highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 70s through
  midweek, then even warmer upper 70s to 80s late week. (Normal
  highs are in the mid 50s with normal lows are near freezing)

- Outside of a few instances of pesky/low-end precipitation
  chances next few days, mainly dry conditions are expected
  until a stronger disturbance arrives later in the week into
  next weekend.

- Late week system could be a dynamic one with multiple
  hazards/impacts possible, but this will ultimately depend on
  the timing and track which is still very uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Fire weather concerns, particularly over the next 24-48 hours,
are discussed in greatest detail below in the dedicated fire
weather section.

For today, looks to be another windy one similar to yesterday,
though this time out of the NW. A weak cold front is currently
in the process of moving through the area early this morning,
which could still spawn some sprinkles or very light showers
next few hrs, mainly N and E of the Tri-Cities. Any rain amounts
will be negligible. Once the sun comes up, clearing skies will
promote deep mixing by early to mid aftn, which various forecast
soundings indicating the top of the boundary layer as high as
600-700mb. The deep mixing and unidirectional flow should once
again allow for efficient momentum transfer to the sfc in the
form of frequent gusts 35-45 MPH, highest N, lowest S. NBM 5.0
90th percentile gusts peak as high as 43 kts at Ord around
midday, so can`t rule out some gusts up there as high as 50 MPH.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today due to the cold air
advection behind the front, but some of this will be offset by
partly to mostly sunny skies over which is now bare ground.
Highs should range from the upper 50s N, to the lower 60s S.
Late this aftn, the very deep mixing and steep low level lapse
rates could spawn a few diurnally driven lgt shwrs/sprinkles,
mainly N of Hwy 92. This potential is best evident on HRRR
simulated reflectivity. Again, any rain amounts will be
negligible and not enough to affect the fire danger. In fact,
the shwrs/virga may only help pull some stronger, more erratic,
gusts to the sfc.

Upper flow remains relatively fast zonal or NWrly through early
week, which will continue to parade some weak disturbances
across the central and northern Plains. However, none of these
look to pack much punch for temp change, or AS MUCH for wind.
With that said...the expected primarily W/NW flow has a tendency
to support wind gusts on the upper end of the forecast range,
so could still get some gusts 25-30 MPH (perhaps iso 35 MPH)
each afternoon. This flow should also support mild/warm temps
thanks to decent downsloping component over bare ground as well
as periods of sunshine. Mon-Wed all look like pleasant days by
late March standards with highs in the upper 60s to 70s.
Increasing influence from upper ridging/building heights will
promote even warmer temps for the second half of the week -
which have certainly trended warmer over the past couple of
forecast cycles. Latest NBM 5.0 now calls for 25th-75th
percentile range from the upper 70s to near 90F both Thursday
and Friday, with the 50th percentile solidly into the 80s area
wide. Combined with mild overnight lows and daily avg temps
could easily run around 25-30F above normal Thu and Fri!

The warm temps will come ahead of our next strong storm system
that`s forecast to arrive sometime late in the week into next
weekend. Model agreement is still low and so is confidence
towards any details...but some of the model output certainly
raises some flags that this could be a stronger system with
multiple hazards/impacts (as is often the case with these
spring-time lows coming out of the W/SW). If the track is far
enough N, and the timing coincides with peak heating, then both
severe thunderstorms and fire weather from a dry slot could be
in play. A more southern track would keep us on the cool side of
the system and mainly beneficial rainfall. Probs for meaningful
snow are still low for our area on recent ensembles, with the
main swath of 20-40% probs for measurable snow from the
Sandhills into SD...but always have to monitor this potential,
as well. Temps will take a dip by around Sun into early the
following week, but ensembles are in good agreement in favoring
near to above normal temps for the first week of April.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Strong NW sfc winds today.

VFR through the period. Cold front has moved through and turned
winds to the W/NW. Expect speeds to pick up quite a bit next
couple of hours, becoming sustained 20-25kt and gusting 30-35kt
late AM into the aftn. Could see some cu/stratocu develop mid to
late aftn with CIGs around 8-10K ft, but clouds tonight should
be mainly high cirrus. Winds will quickly decr around sunset and
settle to only about 5kt tonight. Confidence: High.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Critical fire weather conditions are likely across virtually
our entire forecast area today thanks to NWrly winds sustained
at least 20-30 MPH and gusts 35-45 MPH. The highest and most
frequent 40-45 MPH gusts should favor our Neb counties, esp.
along and N of I-80. As for relative humidity (RH), roughly the
southwestern two-thirds of our CWA is forecast to "technically"
drop into the critical-criteria range of 15-20 percent.
Meanwhile, barely-higher RH of 20-25 percent is forecast to
prevail within most counties north- through-east of the Tri
Cities. However, given the gusty winds and increasingly-dry
grasses (fine fuels), we`ve deemed these areas "plenty close
enough" to justify the Warning. Interesting to note that even
areas that recently melted 3-5+ inches of snow have experienced
some dangerous fire behavior over the past couple of days.


- MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS:
Each afternoon and early evening, at least near-critical fire
weather conditions are expected across portions of our forecast
area, due to the combination of relative humidity falling to at
least 25 percent, and winds gusting at least 20 MPH. The most
likely area for near-critical conditions on Monday will be for
areas along and west of Highway 281 where gusts could climb as
high as 25-30 MPH amidst minimum RHs around 25 percent. At least
for now, there do not appear to be any days with outright-
critical fire weather concerns, but this could change.


-- NOTE:
NWS Hastings normally defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of
20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

NWS Hastings normally defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
15+MPH/20+ MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch/Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion