Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

469
FXUS63 KOAX 191740
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening.

- Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are possible Saturday
  afternoon into early Sunday. Damaging winds and localized
  flash flooding will be the main concerns.

- Cooler temperatures settle in Sunday into early next week,
  with highs mainly in the 70s and periodic chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict
broad troughing over the northeastern CONUS, leaving much of the
area under zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave
disturbance rounding the base of the trough is forcing a sagging
cold front across the area today. The front is rather weak and will
have little impacts on temperatures, with highs still expected in
the low to mid 80s. However, it has provided enough convergence for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the boundary as
it sags southward across the area this afternoon and evening.
PoPs currently peak at 20-50%. Across much of the area, both
moisture and instability will remain limited, with MUCAPE
generally less than 250 J/kg. This should limit severe weather
potential, though there will be enough instability for a few
rumbles of thunder. A better corridor or modest instability,
with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, is expected to pull into south-
central Nebraska later this afternoon. This could support an
isolated stronger storm capable of small hail or gusty winds,
though this remains fairly low and widespread strong to severe
storms is not expected.

Skies will begin to break up and clear behind the departing
front this evening and overnight. With light winds also
expected, fog will be possible tonight into Saturday morning,
with potential for some patchy dense fog. The extent of fog
development will depend on how much clearing occurs and,
therefore, how much radiational cooling can take place.

Saturday and Sunday...

An active weekend of weather arrives Saturday as a shortwave impulse
and increasing mid-level flow move through the Front Range, helping
to spin up a surface low over Colorado that will gradually track
eastward through the weekend. Ahead of this system, moisture will be
drawn northward across the central Plains into the region, bringing
dewpoints into the 60s with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s.

A broken round of WAA driven showers is expected to move across the
area during the afternoon. Instability remains fairly limited with
this early activity, with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. While
a strong to severe storm or two will be possible during this
timeframe, the extend of afternoon severe weather will heavily hinge
on where the better tongue on instability is drawn, with has
continued to stay just to our south and west with latest CAM
guidance, though a small northeast shift could change those odds.

By late afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop to our west before pushing eastward and congealing into a
broken, rather messy cluster of storms over the area during the late
evening and overnight period. Severe weather will remain possible as
these storms move into the area and a LLJ develops, nosing into
southeast Nebraska. The main limiting factor appears to be
instability. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly impressive,
generally around 5.5-6.5 C/km, and latest CAM guidance only brings a
narrow corridor of MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg into southeast Nebraska,
with must of the rest of the area remaining below 750 J/kg. That
said, hodographs are long, with plentiful deep-layer shear and some
low-level curvature. So while instability is not overly impressive,
it may be sufficient. With this in mind, an initial threat for
isolated pockets of hail or a brief tornado remain possible before
transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat. Recent HRRR runs
have also shown a signal for gusty wake-low winds behind the main
precipitation shield, suggesting a sneaky wind threat that could
persist through much of the night before severe weather potential
gradually diminishes into Sunday morning.

The other primary concern for this period will be heavy rainfall and
flash flooding. Behind the initial cluster of thunderstorms, a line
of training storms is expected to develop overnight. Ingredients for
heavy rainfall will increase into the overnight period, with PWAT
values of 1.75 to 2 inches into southeast Nebraska, which is above
the 90th percentile of sounding climatology, and warm cloud depths
of 3.5-4 km. These factors will support efficient rainfall
production. Again, the limiting factor is the relatively limited
instability, but with deep warm-clouds, efficient rainfall remains
possible. Confidence is high that some area will see training storms
and heavy rainfall, with the main questions being where this axis
sets up latitudinally. Latest guidance brings a broad area of 1-2
inches of rainfall with isolated pockets of 3 to 5 inches beneath
the heavier training storms. With this in mind, have collaborated a
Flood Watch for the for areas generally along and south of I-80.
Expect refinements to the axis of heaviest rainfall with subsequent
forecast packages.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to linger into
Sunday morning before gradually tapering off through the day.
Continued rain and cloud cover will keep highs in the 70s for most
of the area.

Monday and Beyond...

Monday into next week, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more
uncertain as a generally zonal flow aloft persists and embedded
shortwave disturbances drive precipitation chances. With no strong
forcing evident at this time, confidence in timing and coverage
remains lower, especially regarding any strong to severe storm
potential. Highs will remain generally in the 70s for the first
half of the week, working back towards the 80s by the weekend.
Periodic 15-30% PoPs continue Tuesday through at least Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period.
Scattered showers, and perhaps and isolated thunderstorms, will
continue across the area this afternoon. The best potential for
a heavier shower or thunderstorm is at KLNK around 19/19-22Z.
Showers will clear from north to south into the evening. Patchy
fog capable of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
overnight. This has not been included in the current TAF
package due to the low confidence in coverage.

Winds will remain calm through the period, with a few afternoon
gusts of 16-20 kts possible. Southwesterly winds will be
shifting to northerly this afternoon as a front sags south
across the area. Winds will become calm and variable overnight,
eventually becoming southerly Saturday morning. Widespread
shower and thunderstorm chances move in just beyond the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

664
FXUS63 KGID 192004
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
304 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms from today through the
  weekend. Ongoing scattered thunderstorms will eventually
  subside later tonight. Another round is expected to develop
  Saturday morning and persist through the morning and early
  afternoon hours. Then another round Saturday evening as storms
  move in from the High Plains.

- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms bring a threat for flooding.
  A flood watch has been issued for much of the area east of
  Highway 183 Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Thunderstorms on Saturday evening and into the overnight hours
  will be strong to severe, SPC has an Enhanced risk for much of
  the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This is an active forecast, primarily within the first 2-3 days.
Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms were not well
forecast, with some models hinting at it early today. However,
as the day has evolved, models persist with this activity, but
even with radar as an initial condition, high-res models are
struggling with areal coverage. Confidence in the next 48 hours
has evolved throughout the day today, but there remains
uncertainty in how each round of convection will impact the
next.

Current expectations for the evolution of the next 48 hours.

Round 1:
Ongoing Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to
eventually diminish and move east southeast tapering a bit by
the evening hours for much of south central Nebraska. There is a
signal of some off and on scattered storms persisting in north
central Kansas into the evening and early overnight hours. The
best instability remains off to the west of the area. This
afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Later tonight,
some marginally severe storms could develop with hail to the
size of quarters.

Largely expect a lull in most of the activity during the
overnight hours.

Round 2:
This round is expected to begin just before sunrise on Saturday
morning along or near the Highway 183 corridor. High-res
Ensembles and even the EC Ensemble support this morning
development. This activity will have slightly more instability
to work with than Round 1 did. While widespread severe weather
is not expected, some of the storms could be strong to severe.
This activity will slowly move eastwards through out the day.

Expect a lull in activity after round 2 passes in the afternoon.

Round 3:
This round is expected to develop in the High Plains of Nebraska
and Kansas and track eastward aided by an upper disturbance.
This activity continues to have the best ingredients to work
with for the most part, and the primary concern for strong to
severe thunderstorms. That being said, this round also may be
impacted by the rounds before it, and that brings in some
uncertainty. Round 2 may limit some of the ability for the
atmosphere to recover along and north of I-80, and there has
been subtle shifts in the guidance that is trending the primary
severe threat along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas stateline.
With round 3, the primary threat is wind as a line of storms
develops to our west on the High Plains and tracks eastward into
the evening and overnight hours. Severe winds up to 70 mph are
possible. Hail up to golfball size is possible, but that best
threat is along and west of Highway 183.

This third round has a lot of upper level support, and while the
worst of the severe activity is along and south of the state
line, severe storms are possible throughout the whole area. In
addition to the strong storms, the repeated rounds of rain will
increase the chance for flooding. Round 3 doesn`t linger long,
but various models and ensembles, indicate the potential for 2-3
inches of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Have
joined neighbors and issued a Flood Watch. Did not initially
include Valley and Greeley Counties, but could see them being
added in the next update.

Sunday:
Additional Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, these could be
strong to severe as well, but have focused primarily on today
and Saturday for this forecast.


Workweek:
The remainder of the forecast is active as the Central Plains
sits under zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, allowing each
weak disturbance to impact the region. Temperatures generally in
the 70s for the week, which is below the 80+ degree normals we
usually see in the second half of June.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across both
terminals as of this issuance. Ceilings and visibility are VFR.
This activity is expected off and on through the remainder of
the afternoon before moving off to the southeast this evening.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible early
Saturday morning, model ensemble guidance this morning have been
fairly consistent with the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning around or just west of KEAR before 12z
and moving eastward impacting KGRI during the morning hours as
well. Higher confidence (60-70%) of this occurring in the
morning, led to the VCTS in both terminals for this 18z TAF
cycle.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion