90°F
Updated:
7/18/2026
1:01:17pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
525 FXUS63 KOAX 181749 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Probability of occurrence 10-20% - Sunday and Monday will be two of hottest days of the year. Heat index values on Sunday will reach 100 to 108 degrees. Monday will be even more oppressive in most locations with heat index values 100-110 degrees. - Nighttime heat index values 73-77 degrees will not provide much relief. A Heat Advisory is in effect on Sunday across northeast Nebraska and this will be expanded on Monday. - Cooler weather returns by midweek, with high temperatures falling back into the 80s. Along with more seasonable temperatures. there will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Quiet and warm this evening under upper level ridging with temperatures as of 10 PM still in the mid to upper 80s for many locations, highest near the NE/SD border and in urban areas. A few pieces of guidance hint at fog development overnight into early Saturday, mainly in river valleys and low- lying area. However, model soundings once again show winds aloft will stay up a bit, so it should be pretty patchy if it does develop once again. The main feature of note this evening was a surface boundary stretching from central MN, across SD, and into far northwest NE. This will sag southward into the area during the day on Saturday with CAMs in pretty good agreement we`ll have at least some scattered shower and storm development along it. Little to no shear to work with along the boundary, but given the warm, humid airmass and enhanced moisture pooling along the boundary, could be enough instability for a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds from downbursts. However, severe weather is not expected at this time. Otherwise, it`ll be hot and humid once again, but think the aforementioned precip and associated clouds will lead to some slightly lower highs, but still expecting mid to upper 90s for most with some heat indices creeping into the lower 100s. Warmer air aloft will start to push in Sunday and especially Monday with NAEFS and EPS guidance suggesting 850 mb temps reach 22-25 C Sunday and 25-28 C range by Monday. Model soundings show we should have no issues mixing into those warmer temperatures aloft, meaning temperatures may start to approach or exceed 100 on Sunday, and likely exceed it on Monday (50-80% chance at a given spot). One thing to watch for Sunday will be remnant cloud cover in the morning or even some spotty precip in the afternoon with guidance showing some weak shortwave energy and warm air advection nudging into the area at some point during the day. Should this pan out, temperatures may end up needing to be bumped down. Similar story for Monday as a cold front looks to crash into the area at some point, but still some questions on exact timing. For now, keeping the Heat Advisory as-is for northeast NE on Sunday and holding off on any headlines for Monday given the question of cloud cover and precip along the front. I`d give it a 50-70% chance that we`ll need another Heat Advisory Monday with the main question being how much of the area to include. Behind that front, we`ll see relief from the heat with highs in the 80s to lower 90s through next week. Precip chances will also be on the increase as the ridge axis sets up to our west and shortwave energy dives through the northwest flow. Right now, our highest chances look to be Wednesday night into Thursday (40-60% chance) and again Thursday night into Friday (30-40% chance). For what it`s worth, various machine learning severe weather guidance suggests the potential for severe weather will be low with these chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The latest satellite imagery is detecting increasing cumulus cloud development across the area. Coverage is in the FEW-SCT category at FL040-FL060. A weak front is moving into the forecast domain. Afternoon heating, moisture pooling along the front and instability will lead to a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Coverage of this activity
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
572 FXUS63 KGID 181728 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs will mainly range the low to mid 90s today, mid to upper 90s Sunday and the upper 90s to 103 degrees on Monday (Heat Index values as high as 100-107 degrees Monday afternoon). - Temperatures beyond Monday will mainly stick between the mid 80s to mid 90s. - A few isolated non-severe storms may be possible across the area this afternoon and evening (10-20% chance). The best potential will be north of I-80. - A few additional chances for a possibly more widespread coverage of storms currently lies between Wednesday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Today... A "cold" front, currently draped across the Nebraska / South Dakota border early this morning (indicated by the northerly wind shift behind/north of the front), will be expected to meander south into central Nebraska by the end of the day. Though the air behind this front will not necessarily be "cold" in any way, this boundary more so demarcates a subtle surface wind shift (southwest to east shift). Weak convergence along this boundary during the afternoon to evening hours (mainly between 4-10PM) could become just strong enough to actually develop a few showers and possibly a few weak storms. Given the boundaries slow progression, it is unlikely that this boundary will be able to make it down to the Kansas state line. As result, the best chance for isolated showers/storms will be for south central nebraska with the best concentration north of I-80 (10-20% chances). Though these storms/showers will be possible across much of the area, most locations will likely remain dry given the expected highly scattered nature of precipitation. For the storms that do develop, given the weak shear aloft, it will be very unlikely for any storm to become severe. Otherwise, highs will look peak across the low to mid 90s range today, or just a few degrees warmer from normal mid-July standards (upper 80s). Winds will remain light among the weak surface pressure gradient with directions starting out of the south to southwest before becoming easterly following the weak frontal passage. Speeds should struggle to increase much past 10-15MPH. Sunday and Monday... The main story for the start of the week will be the heat. Height/pressure rises (ridging) across the intermountain west region with height/pressure falls (troughing) across the eastern U.S. may work to cancel one another across the central U.S. As result, little is expected to change conditions wise here across the local area until at least Tuesday. Rising temperatures with mostly dry conditions will continue on through the day Sunday and Monday. Though a few isolated storm/showers can`t be completely ruled out everywhere, most locations will likely remain dry through the period. Temperatures will look to peak on Monday between 97-103 degrees with heat index values soaring as high as 100-107 degrees thanks to mid 60 to low 70s dewpoints. The latest LREF guidance suggests that between 50% to 80% of the area could see highs reach 100 degrees. If the current forecast continues to hold, a heat advisory may be considered across a few portions of the area. As it stands, there is still some uncertainty with if cloud coverage from nearby storms or if overachieving dewpoints may play influence the temperature forecast for the day? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the upper 80s to low 90s, and are expected to top out in the low-mid 90s. Aloft a ridge remains in place over the eastern Rockies/western Plains. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with clear skies and light winds. Highs climb into the mid 90s on Saturday with light winds shifting to the east as a weak front slides into the area. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15%) Saturday afternoon for areas mainly along/north of Interstate 80. Weak shear should keep any shower/storm brief and non-severe. Any shower/storm will dissipate around sunset as instability wanes. Heat increases on Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s. Sunny skies and light winds make for an unpleasant day for those outdoors. Heat index values climb to around 100 degrees, but look to fall short of reaching heat advisory criteria (105 degrees). Areas most favored to experience 100 degree heat index values will be along and north of I-80. Monday remains on track to be the hottest day of the forecast period. Forecast highs are currently in the low 100s, which would be the first 100 degree day this year for most portions of the forecast area. Highs combined with dewpoints in the 60s will result in widespread heat index values in the 100s. At least a portion if not the entire area will likely need a heat advisory on Monday, but will defer to a future shift to narrow down the exact area that is likely to meet advisory criteria. Those with outdoor activities on Monday will want to take breaks and drink plenty of water as sunny skies and light winds will not provide relief from the heat. A trough dives into the Midwest Monday night, flattening the ridge and pushing a cold front through the area. Cooler weather is expected Tuesday onwards with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees. As a northwesterly flow pattern sets up over the area next week, it will bring multiple chances for precipitation to the area. Details on these chances will become clearer as we get closer in time (most likely late afternoon-early overnight hours).* Add discussion here. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through TAF period. A brief shower/storm is possible during the late afternoon-evening, with any storm clearing by sunset. VFR/CIGS are unlikely to become sub-VFR in storms given the weak/brief nature of any storm. Otherwise mostly clear skies are expected with light and variable winds. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis
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