Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

213
FXUS63 KOAX 030536
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1136 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow continues
  through this evening across much of the area (60-80% Chance),
  leading to travel impacts (especially along and north of I-80
  in Nebraska). A light glaze of ice and a dusting of snow is
  possible, especially for northeast Nebraska.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
  evening for northeast and east-central Nebraska.

- Temperatures quickly rebound into the 40s and 50s this weekend
  with largely dry and warmer-than-average weather into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Remainder of Today into Tonight

Winter weather has been slow to spread across eastern Nebraska so
far this afternoon. As noted in the 18Z OAX sounding, dry air just
above the surface has limited coverage thus far. A compact shortwave
continues to move into the central Great Plains with weak
cyclogenesis to our southwest. This has supported the development of
widespread freezing precipitation across much of central Nebraska,
but impacts in our area has largely remained west of a Norfolk to
Columbus line. That being said, a gradual expansion of winter
weather is anticipated through the remainder of this afternoon into
this evening as this system moves through. Otherwise, low clouds
continue to hold most locations in the 20s this afternoon.

By this evening, light freezing rain should have spread into east-
central Nebraska. Any freezing rain is forecast to remain light and
should quickly change over to snow once the sun sets. The
precipitation continues into southwest Iowa after sunset, but
everything begins to weaken and dissipate at this point. Any
precipitation will vacate the area after midnight.

Overall, only a very light amount of ice accumulation and perhaps a
dusting of snow is expected. The best chance to see these amounts
will be over northeast Nebraska. This threat lessens over east-
central Nebraska, though at least isolated areas of accumulation are
expected. Elsewhere, little to no accumulations are expected.
Whether it is freezing rain or snow, slick spots are likely where
precipitation falls. With all of the above in mind, a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through this evening for northeast and
east-central Nebraska.

This Weekend and Beyond

Any icy road conditions that linger into this weekend will be short-
lived. While temperatures start in the 20s, Saturday afternoon sees
everyone push above freezing into the 40s. This is in response to
clearing skies as mid-level ridging begins to build over the central
Great Plains. By Sunday, temperatures rebound even further, reaching
the 50s for many. These above normal temperatures are forecast to
continue into the first half of next week as well. With ridging in
place, any weather systems remain north of the area. As a result,
mostly dry conditions can be expected with only passing high clouds
as a few weak disturbances round the periphery of the ridge.

Our next potential weather system is not set to arrive until the
second half of next week. A broad through across the western half of
the United States is anticipated to begin slowly progressing east
into the Great Plains. With this disturbance, a return of
precipitation chances and colder temperatures is likely. While
relatively warm temperatures and rain are initially forecast on
Thursday. Cooling temperatures by Friday may see snow enter the
picture. Stay tuned for details as forecast confidence remains low
at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Snow has ended for the terminal, with any lingering showers
pushing east and southeast. Expect ceilings to rise through the
day tomorrow.

KOMA: Most of the snow will wrap up by around 06Z; however, a
light band of snow may linger through around 07Z. VFR conditions
are expected for much of the forecast period along with light
winds.

KLNK: Snow has ended for the terminal. Expect light winds
through the forecast period. Ceilings will gradually improve to
VFR conditions by sunrise and continue to rise through the day.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

785
FXUS63 KGID 030511
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1111 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Like the previous few nights, fog could potentially become an
  issue late tonight into Saturday AM for parts of our area
  (perhaps mainly our southwest quadrant). At least localized
  dense fog cannot be ruled out.

- The weather turns noticeably warmer/drier for at least
  Saturday-Wednesday, with widespread highs in the 50s-low 60s
  and lows near-to-barely below freezing (at least near-record
  highs and warm lows possible on a few of those days).

- Things POTENTIALLY turn more active Thursday and/or Friday
  with the potential for rain and/or snow, but model uncertainty
  is significant (as usual) that far out in time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Area radar continues to shows that precipitation continues to
diminish across the area. Therefore the Winter Weather Advisory
has been allowed to expire. Travelers should continue to use
caution when driving as some untreated roads may remain slick
through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
 CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- Of most pressing concern in the very short term: the Winter
  Weather Advisory first issued early this morning for several
  of our far northern/east-central counties has been since
  expanded southward to include several more of our Nebraska
  counties...as at least light icing potential could extend as
  far south as roughly a Lexington-Minden-Hebron line.

- Honestly no noteworthy forecast changes to speak of. We MIGHT
  have at least a minor round of rain and/or snow lurking by
  Thurs-Fri (Jan. 8-9), but model uncertainty is predictably
  high.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. Jan.
 9...but very heavily focused on the first 15 hours):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 345 PM:
Not surprisingly in these kind of weather setups with low
stratus clouds entrenched in place and fairly light (5-10 MPH)
east-southeasterly breezes (not to mention most of the morning
featuring widespread fog/localized dense fog), temperatures
today will end up falling a good 3-9 degrees short of what was
forecast 24 hours ago. More specifically, current
readings/afternoon highs range upper 20s-low 30s across roughly
our northeastern 2/3rds, while slightly milder mid-upper 30s
prevail over our southwestern 1/2 (Cambridge airport very
briefly reached 40 in our extreme west, and only a few counties
west- southwest of our CWA 50+ was realized).

But getting back to the main story, due in part to the
aforementioned colder-than-expected temperatures and the
freezing line setting up farther south than it appeared even 12
hours ago, the threat for light freezing rain and at least a
glaze of ice has also reached farther south and necessitated the
southward extension of the Winter Weather Advisory (see below
for more on this). Despite the sub-freezing temperatures,
the minimal solar radiation getting through the afternoon sun
has mostly kept "true" icing impacts on roads so far today
confined to counties north of I-80 (per NDOT 511 road
conditions), but this could easily change this evening as
daylight fades.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data depict a compact-
but-evident vorticity max embedded within a broader, low
amplitude shortwave trough...currently tracking southeast
directly over our region and providing the forcing/lift for
ongoing light wintry precip. At the surface, moist easterly
(upslope) low level breezes have maintained the low stratus deck
westward through nearly our entire CWA (except for the far
western fringes..but even there skies are cloudy/mostly cloudy
under considerable mid-high clouds.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF SATURDAY:
As of this writing, the bulk of our CWA is at least temporarily
dry, while a more organized band of mainly light freezing rain
(perhaps mixed with a touch of sleet/snow) is traversing our
northern/western Nebraska counties. Over the course of the next
several hours, this primary batch of precip will steadily march
east-southeast through mainly the northeast 2/3rds of our CWA,
its departing/back end tied closely to the
aforementioned/compact vort max currently evident in radar
imagery over the Dawson/Custer County area. Leaning heavily on
observational trends along with higher-res guidance from models
such as HRRR, precip chances (PoPs) for late this afternoon-
evening were raised significantly above previous forecasts...as
most models have overall-struggled with the areal coverage of
precip today. Over the course of the day, made a couple of
southward extensions to the Winter Weather Advisory (which is
almost entirely driven by the ongoing/upcoming threat of at
least a light glaze (or additional glaze) of ice...with the
onset of nightfall taking any minimal solar energy getting
through the low clouds out of the picture, and potentially
making light icing a greater concern. The southern edge of the
Advisory may prove to be plenty "generous" (especially some of
the counties south of I-80), but based on actual radar and HRRR
modeled reflectivity trends, felt it was prudent to include all
counties expected to be most solidly at-or-below freezing until
the back edge of precip finally clears our far
eastern/southeastern CWA mainly in the 8-10 PM time frame.
Speaking of that, the "end time" of the Advisory was extended
out until 10 PM...but this is mainly for the eastern-most
counties (some west-northwest counties may end up being
cancelled early). As for precip type, a few hundredths of an
inch of freezing rain is clearly the main feature based on
thermal profiles, but a touch of embedded sleet/snow cannot be
ruled out either (the Advisory is NOT geared toward sleet/snow
however).

Once any precip moves out this evening, the next concern is how
efficiently skies might start to clear from west-to-east
overnight, and resultant fog issues. While mid-high level
clouds will surely depart late, models such as RAP/HRRR really
hang onto residual lower stratus through the night...especially
over our east half. Despite surface/low level breezes turning
westerly late tonight in the wake of the departing trough axis,
this weak downslope flow might not be strong enough to keep fog
from developing. Per latest HRRR modeled-visibility, the
southwest quadrant of our CWA would be most favored for possible
fog/dense fog development. However, with everything else going
on before then and with fog development/coverage inherently
uncertain even at this time range, opted to only include generic
patchy fog in some western counties along with inclusion in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Confidence in dense fog
simply too low to hoist a formal Advisory yet.

Finally for tonight, low temps were raised a little based
largely on the assumption that low clouds will remain
firm...most places aimed mid-upper 20s. However, any unexpected
clearing could easily end up getting some places down into the
low 20s.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Once any potential morning fog/lingering low stratus dissipates,
the afternoon should give way to a seasonably-pleasant day,
featuring light westerly breezes (mainly 5-10 MPH) and
sunny/mostly sunny skies. High temps forecast to range low-mid
50s most areas, except some mid-upper 40s far east/northeast.

Saturday evening-overnight, breezes turn more southerly and pick
up a bit with time. The combo of the slightly increasing winds
and increasing high clouds will keep low temps on the milder
side...most areas aimed 28-32. At this time, fog issues are not
anticipated for a change, but this bears watching especially in
northern counties.


- SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
In short, this still looks like an unseasonably-mild/pleasant
and dry stretch of weather. Although models such as the ECMWF
occasionally bring transient rounds of precip close to our CWA
at times, for now this are expected to remain slightly to our
north. Winds don`t look overly-strong most days, with Sunday
probably overall-breeziest (gusts to around 25 MPH from the
south). Most noteworthy though are temperatures, with highs
forecast well into the 50s if not low 60s each day, and
overnight lows only dropping to a few degrees either side of
freezing most nights.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
Our official forecast calls for generic slight chances (mainly
20 percent) of rain and/or snow during this time, as both the
ECMWF/GFS suggest a more unsettled weather pattern as a large-
scale western U.S. upper trough tracks into the central states.
However, deterministic models "all over the place" on whether we
actually see meaningful/impactful precip or whether these
chances mostly split around north/south of our area. Obviously
PLENTY of time to sort this out. Temperatures are forecast to
trend down, with highs mainly 40s Thurs and 30s Friday (but even
this is still "near-normal".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/LIFR ceilings and pockets of IFR fog will continue tonight
into Saturday morning. Skies then scatter out from west to east
in the 15-18Z timeframe. Winds remain light through the day on
Saturday.

The HRRR and RAP hint that some stratus may return Saturday
night, but overall probabilities remain low, and this is largely
after the end of this TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion