Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

657
FXUS63 KOAX 060518
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1118 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions are expected the next couple of days.

- Our next best chance for rain, possibly mixing with a few
  snowflakes will be Saturday.

- Cold temperatures return to the area Saturday through Monday,
  with lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chills in
  the single digits in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

The forecast period begins with northwest flow over the region and a
mid-upper level ridge over the Central High Plains. Winds have
decreased over the past several hours, remaining out of the north in
most locations. Cooler air continues to advect into the region,
bringing a noticeable impact with temperatures. Expected highs will
range from the mid to upper 50s. An isolated 60 cannot be ruled out.

Heading into the overnight hours, high pressure moves to the east
and an area of low pressure develops over Canada with a shortwave
trough moving across the Central High Plains. Cloud cover over
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will increase as the low lifts to
the northeast, particularly for areas along and north of Hwy 92. The
tightening pressure gradient will result in an uptick in winds out
of the south overnight. This coupled with the increase in cloud
cover over northern Nebraska may help mitigate some radiational
cooling, and keep overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Thursday, the trough continues moving across Central and Eastern
Nebraska into Iowa. South winds will remain gusty (25-35mph) through
around mid-afternoon as the trough crosses the region. Southerly
winds will usher in some warmer air, helping temperatures rebound
into the low to mid-60s for highs and the low to mid-40s for lows.

Friday, the trough will exit the region, with northwest flow setting
up over the Great Plains. Temperatures will warm slightly, with
highs ranging from the low to mid-60s for areas along and north of I-
80 and a few upper 60s for areas along the Kansas and Missouri
borders. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded in the larger trough,
will slide southeast from Alberta Friday morning into the western
Dakotas by Saturday morning.

850mb temperatures show colder air pushing into the region by around
mid-day, keeping high temperatures for the day in the 40s and 50s.
For some locations, this may result in high temperatures occurring
in the late morning/early afternoon. The system will have some
Pacific moisture with it, bringing some low end (20-30%) chances for
rain late Friday night/early Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon. Better chances (30-50%) are currently forecast for areas
along the Nebraska/Iowa border. The current p-type is mainly rain;
however, areas in the northern part of the CWA may have the colder
air move in soon enough to cool things down to where a rain/snow mix
might be possible for a few locations. This will be something to
keep an eye on in the coming days.

The chilly air remains over the region Sunday as a ridge amplifies
over the western CONUS and the trough remains over the Eastern CONUS
and the Great Plains. Lows are currently forecasted to be in the
upper teens to mid-20s Sunday morning. Expected high temperatures
will struggle into the 30s for many, with a few low 40s possible
toward our southeastern counties. Monday morning will be in the mid-
teens to low 20s for lows with wind chill values in the single
digits and teens.

Monday, we see a shift in the pattern as northerly flow transitions
to northwesterly and the trough shifts east. Expect a gradual warm
up into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing mid
to high level clouds. Expect southeasterly winds under 10 kts
overnight with some low level wind shear overspreading the area
by 11Z (40-45 kt winds at 1500 ft agl). Surface winds will pick
up toward mid morning with gusts of 20-30 kts into late
afternoon. Winds will then become more southwesterly to westerly
into the evening with speeds gradually decreasing.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

475
FXUS63 KGID 060600
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1200 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally quiet weather pattern with mostly near to above
  normal temperatures continues for the next 7-8 days, at least.

- Exceptions to this will be a slight chance for light
  precipitation, mainly over central Nebraska, Saturday morning
  with a cold front that will lead to a sharp, but relatively
  brief, cool down for Sunday and Monday.

- The only real "hazardous weather" to speak of will be strong
  NW winds gusting 35-45+ MPH during the day on Saturday. This
  could lead to elevated fire weather concerns, as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Shaping up to be a nice late afternoon and early evening given
nearly full sunshine and increasing high pressure that is
allowing winds to lighten up. Temperatures as of 3PM are in the
mid 50s to lower 60s, which is right around, or even a touch
above, normal for this time of year.

Clouds will gradually increase overnight ahead of our next weak
upper disturbance and winds will turn more Srly, which will help
to keep overnight lows largely above freezing. Modestly breezy
S/SW winds should lead to warmer afternoon high temperatures on
Thursday, likely in the 60s area wide, and perhaps even some
low 70s far W/SW. "Feels like" conditions may actually be fairly
similar to today, though, given the breeze and continued high
level sky cover. A weak cold front associated with
aforementioned upper disturbance (embedded within relatively
active/fast zonal/NW flow) will swing through the area Thu
eve/night. This is a Pacific-based system with not a lot of
punch to it, so temperatures will actually be quite similar on
Friday as any cold air advection is offset to some degree by
some downsloping component to WNW-NW winds. Afternoon will be a
bit breezy, esp. N of I-80, but winds should decrease for the
evening and most of the night.

A stronger cold front and push of cooler air will arrive
Saturday AM. Some models continue to indicate a low, but non-
zero, chance for light rain showers/sprinkles late late Friday
night into Saturday morning, mainly for areas N and E of the
Tri-Cities. Forecast soundings continue to support all rain for
our area as the deeper cold air, for us, will lag the precip by
several hours. Dakotas into MN and N IA could be a different
story. By far, though, the greatest weather impact from this
system for us will be the widespread, strong NW winds. Latest
NBM calls for 40-70+ percent chance for wind gusts >40 MPH, and
10-40 percent chance for gusts >50 MPH...with the highest range
of chances being W through NW of the Tri-Cities. Would not at
all be surprised to see a place like Ord see a few gusts in the
low 50s. Elsewhere, should be mainly 35-50 MPH. Will likely be
dealing with some lingering cloud cover/low level moisture
through the day, which should help alleviate some fire weather
concerns by keeping RHs mostly above 30 percent. However, still
think areas along/SW of a Arapahoe to Osborne line will have at
least elevated concerns with slightly lower humidities around 25
to 30 percent.

Still looks like strongest sfc high pressure of the season thus
far will move into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Timing
could be favorable for peak radiational cooling (clear skies,
light winds) and some of the coldest lows in quite some time.
Official NBM has now dropped to 19F at Ord, but keeps Tri-Cities
and S in the low to mid 20s. Will probably see these trend
lower as details become clearer.

Monday will remain chilly, but guidance remains in good
agreement that seasonably mild air will return Tuesday through
much of next week. In fact, could see at least a couple days
with highs once again rising into the 60s to near 70s. There are
some hints of a potentially cooler and perhaps more active
pattern towards the 17th-20th, but obviously details are not
possible this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with
increasing high clouds upstream of the area approaching the
region late tonight.

Expect southerly winds to remain steady near 10 KTS through the
overnight hours...rapidly increasing after daybreak as the
surface pressure gradient increases across the region ahead of
the next disturbance. While there is evidence of a weak LLJ in
model data, so far the VWP is not indicating and WS out there at
the moment and expect any LLWS that develops to remain marginal,
so did not introduce this into 6Z TAFs. Winds will likely gust
to near 25KTS during the afternoon hours Thursday, diminishing
from west to east ahead of a weak cold front late in the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...SR

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion