Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

095
FXUS63 KOAX 161105
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
505 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very High Fire Danger is forecast across the entire forecast
  area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  rising into the 70s Tuesday.

- A more active pattern develops Tuesday through the end of the
  week, with cooling temperatures and multiple chances for
  light rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Another unseasonably warm day was enjoyed under the sunny skies
today. Like Saturday, highs flirted with a 30 degree margin
above seasonal norms. The warm weather is expected to linger
through Tuesday.

.TONIGHT...

An increasing number of models have indicated a threat of fog
development just east of the Sioux City area with the NAM
suggesting more widespread fog by sunrise. Dewpoints have been
creeping up ahead of an approaching boundary. Winds will become
light and variable overnight as the boundary layer decouples.
Have kept fog out of the forecast for now, but think a 25%-ish
chance of its development is reasonable before sunrise. HREF
suggests visibility under two miles is only 10-20% probable.

.MONDAY...

I hope you liked Sunday, because Washington`s Birthday (Monday)
will be a near repeat. Highs will peak in the mid-60s under
sunny skies.

.TUESDAY...

Tuesday is the big show. The day begins with overcast skies due
to isentropic upglide. Guidance suggests some precip, but bufkit
soundings show saturation limited to under 3 kft. For this
reason, I`ve removed the NBM`s rain showers and replaced them
with light drizzle before 9 am.

In the afternoon, southerly flow picks up speed with wind gusts
of up to 35 mph. Skies will clear from southwest to northeast.
LREF/NBM suggest high clouds across most of the Central Plains
with a hole cut out over this CWA. Record heat is still forecast
with highs ranging from lower-70s in western Iowa to upper 70s
in the Lincoln area. RH values are forecast to slip below 25% in
parts of northeast Nebraska. Fire danger will push well into the
`VERY HIGH` category and it does look like we may be bumping up
against Red Flag Warning criteria.

A cold front cuts through from west to east on Tuesday eve,
bringing a chance (20-40%) of light rain.

.WEDNESDAY...

Very high fire danger is likely to linger for areas that missed
out on the winter rainfall. Westerly winds will be a bit faster
than normal and temps will remain well above normal. Dry air
builds in behind the departing system and RH values fall as low
as 15-20%.

.END OF THE WEEK...

The anomalous warmth comes to an end by Thursday as a surface
low passes through Kansas. Cooler air is pulled south into the
system with highs ranging from mid-50s at Falls City to near
freezing at Niobrara, NE. By Thursday evening, the week`s best
chance of precip (40-60%) wraps around the back side of the
system. P-type forecasts would call for rain changing to snow.
A couple of inches of accumulation along the SD state line
looks possible by Friday morning.

Another large system sweeps through the Northern Plains over the
weekend, keeping slight PoPs in the forecast and keeping temps
closer to February averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period. Low-
level wind shear this morning will clear up by around 15Z as
winds off the surface weaken. Winds remain generally out of the
south or southwest through the day today, turning more
southeasterly this evening. Winds will remain out of the
southeast around 5kt or less through 12Z Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday`s standing records vs the forecast

     Norfolk 72 | 1981 .. 74 | 2026
     Lincoln 74 | 2017 .. 77 | 2026
     .Offutt 65 | 1970 .. 75 | 2026
     .Eppley 75 | 2017... 75 | 2026
     Tekamah 66 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026
  Falls City 76 | 2017 .. 72 | 2026
  Valley NWS 69 | 2017... 74 | 2026

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy
CLIMATE...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

367
FXUS63 KGID 160539
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1139 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A red flag warning remains in effect until 6PM for a few south central
  Nebraska counties. More widespread and even more heightened
  fire weather concerns are expected to return Tuesday
  afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the
  entire area from noon until 8PM Tuesday. Please refer to the
  Fire Weather Section for more information.

- The next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday night (10-40%).
  Rain amounts will be limited in coverage with the overall
  best potential towards the northeast.

- Temperatures will rise towards the mid 70s to low 80s by
  Tuesday, followed by a 30-40 degree drop in highs to the mid
  30s to low 40s by Friday.

- An extended period of non-zero PoPs lies between Wednesday
  night and Saturday night. The highest confidence currently
  resides Thursday (10-40% chances) and Friday evening and night
  (30-40% chances). Snow will be the most likely precipitation
  type.

- Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, limited
  confidence in timing keeps forecast amounts limited to only a
  trace to a few tenths of an inch of forecast snow
  accumulations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Humidity values and winds have dropped below Red Flag Warning
criteria and will continue to do so into the evening hours.
Therefore, have allowed the Red Flag Warning that was
previously in effect for today to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026


Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon

Falling surface pressure this afternoon denotes the onset of a weak
surface trough mainly centered over the Northern Plains this
afternoon. As result, southeast oriented winds have helped pump in a
warm and dry airmass. A secondary resurgence of these 20-30MPH wind
gusts may return overnight with winds calming for much of the day
Monday. Aloft, a gentle ridge will help keep things more stable,
assisting on keeping the period (through Tuesday afternoon) dry and
warm (adiabatic warming from subsidence). Breezy southwest winds are
likely to return Tuesday afternoon (gusts as high as 30-45+MPH) as a
around 990mb surface low deepens over Central Montana.

The combination of the gusty southeasterly downsloping winds and
subsidence from the ridge aloft (adiabatic warming) as well as
clearing skies (diurnal warming) may help highs easily reach the mid
70s to even potentially the low 80s for a few locations (40-80%
chances). These conditions for Tuesday will feel unnatural for
February as temperatures race towards record high potential. For more
information regarding this record breaking heat, please refer to
the climate section below. In addition, the return of breezy
southwesterly winds will likely cause some heightened fire weather
concerns given the dry conditions. Due to the higher than usual
confidence this far out, we have decided to issue a Fire Weather
Watch for the full area for between noon and 8PM. Please refer to
the fie weather section below for more information.


Long Term...Tuesday night and Beyond

The next major pattern shake up will take place around Tuesday night
as a cold front, tied to the aforementioned Northern Plains tracking
surface low, launches on through the area. At this point in time, we
retain only 10-40% PoPs for rain across primarily the northeastern
portions of the area Tuesday night. Amounts will in all likeliness
be minimal and not widespread in coverage.

The more notable change following the front will be from the
tumbling of temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Highs will
likely take a 30-40 degree slide across the period (from the mid 70s
to low 80s down to the mid 30s to low 40s). A powering Central to
South Central Plains roaming jet aloft will also work to stir up the
mid-to-upper level pattern locally, bringing additional
precipitation chances to the area mainly Thursday (10-40% chances)
and Friday evening into Saturday morning (30-40% chances). Due to
some timing uncertainty between long-range forecast guidance
(GFS/ECMWF run to run inconsistency), an extended period of non-zero
PoPs reside between Wednesday night and early Sunday morning.

Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, precipitation amounts
currently favor more modest quantities (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion