Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

953
FXUS63 KOAX 241737
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into Friday
  morning. Patchy rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1 inch are
  expected, with some locally higher amounts possible near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat
  index values reaching near 105 on Saturday and 105 to 115
  Sunday and Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Saturday
  afternoon through Monday evening. An Extreme Heat Watch is
  also in effect for the Omaha metro into southwest Iowa Sunday
  afternoon through Monday evening.

- Expect much more dry weather than wet next week, but we`ll
  have periodic 20-30% chances for showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

In collaboration with neighboring WFOs, have issued a Heat
Advisory for all of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa starting
noon Saturday through 10 pm Monday night. The Omaha metro area
and locations in southwest Iowa may see heat indices flirt with
the 115F mark Sunday afternoon and again Monday. Have issued an
Extreme Heat Watch for these areas starting Sunday afternoon
through 10 pm Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Starting to see a little more shower coverage in the area as of 10
PM, with the shortwave energy and mid-level frontogenesis in SD
finally starting to push into the area. Additional storm development
was taking place across northern KS as a low-level jet/moisture
transport ramped up. This activity should gradually spread
northeastward into the forecast area as we go through the overnight
hours and into Friday morning. With precipitable water values
approaching and exceeding 2" (1.92" on the 00Z OAX sounding) and
warm cloud depths of 4-4.5 km, the potential for efficient rain-
producing storms will be there. The big question will be how much
elevated instability will be available to get higher and more
impactful rainfall amounts. Latest guidance suggests 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE could creep just north of the NE/KS border (a slight uptick
compared to afternoon solutions), meaning increasing potential for
some heavier rain. Various CAMs highlight localized areas of 1-2+
inches in vicinity of this elevated instability, with totals to the
north more in the range of a few hundredths to half an inch. If a
spot manages to get repeated rounds, can`t rule out some localized
flooding (10% chance at a given spot). That said, ongoing storms and
heavy rain in KS may end up keeping things a bit farther south
after all, so overall confidence in rainfall amounts is
somewhat low, though still think there`s potential for an inch
or 2 near the NE/KS border.

Precip should gradually push out of the area Friday morning with
largely dry weather favored by noon or 1 PM. Clouds will linger a
bit longer and will keep us cooler for one more day as temperatures
top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s from east to west across the area.
For the evening and overnight, guidance is in good agreement that we
see fog development in a good chunk of the area with southerly flow
helping to keep dewpoints around 70, near forecast lows overnight.

The heat and humidity are then very much on for the weekend into
early next week as upper level ridging to our west amplifies
and slides eastward. Given the persistent southerly flow and
continued cropland evapotranspiration, dewpoints should hover in
the 70s. Temperatures may be a little more questionable with
some guidance hinting at weak shortwave energy rounding the
ridge and bringing us some cloud cover, if not showers and
storms, though still lots of spread in exact timing and track of
those. However, even with some clouds, it`s still looking hot,
with ensembles giving us 850 mb temperatures in the mid to upper
20s C (90th+ percentile of climatology). As a result, model
consensus gives us widespread highs in the 90s and few 100s on
Saturday, followed by mid 90s to lower 100s Sunday and Monday.
As a side note, GFS/GEFS guidance continues to over-mix and
give us highs exceeding 110 in many locations. EPS continues to
look much more reasonable. All that said, expect widespread heat
indices nearing 105 on Saturday, followed by 105-115 across
much of the area on Sunday and possibly Monday. Heat Advisories
are looking likely (60-90% chance) those three days and if
confidence increases that we`ll see 110+ heat indices multiple
days, an Extreme Heat Warning may become necessary (50% chance
for portions of southwest IA).

Beyond Monday, we`ll start to see more shortwave troughs round
the ridge and bring us on and off shower and storm chances. This
will also lead to slightly cooler temperatures, but still
seasonably warm with lower to mid 90s for most well into the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

IFR conditions are common across the area this morning with
overcast skies near FL006 and reduced visibilities. Guidance has
been over-optimistic in clearing it out all day, so confidence
on its improvement by 20Z is low (60%).

Expect to see another found of similar conditions develop
overnight tonight with patchy fog introduced now at KOMA and
KOFK with IFR cigs and reduced visibility.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-
     088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ052-053.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Castillo
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

706
FXUS63 KGID 241140
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will exit the area
  this morning.

- Patchy fog this morning and more widespread dense fog expected
  early Saturday morning.

- Hot! Temperatures will increase and be very hot Saturday
  through Monday. Sunday and Monday are expected to have heat
  indices near 110 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

This morning, scattered showers are present across much of the
area along and east of Highway 281 and then in central Nebraska.
This activity is not severe, and has little in the way of
thunder with it. These showers/weak thunderstorms are expected
to exit the area to the east around or shortly after sunrise.

Areas along and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska may see reduced
visibilities this morning due to patchy fog. Some areas may see
visibility reduced to a mile or less.

Cloud cover will slowly erode today, but that cloud cover will
help keep temperatures in the 80s across the area. Warmest areas
will be across the west.

By late tonight into early Saturday, light winds, and mostly
clear skies will be prime conditions for fog and areas of dense
fog is expected across much of the area. Visibilities of a
quarter mile or less are possible.

The main story beyond the fog and showers, is the heat wave. A
heat advisory has been issued for the whole area Saturday
through Monday. While temperatures will be hot all three days,
the hottest 2 days will be Sunday and Monday and the heat
advisory may be upgraded to an Extreme Heat warning. Heat
indices on Saturday will be in the 100 to 105 range, while 100
to 110 are likely on Sunday and Monday.

As the previous discussion mentions, the upper ridge begins to
break down next week, but organized, widespread precipitation is
not expected, that being said...off and on rain chances are
present as disturbances round the top of the ridge.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Light showers linger across portions of the area late this
morning and will gradually clear from west to east this
afternoon. Like yesterday, lingering cloud cover will keep
temperatures on the cooler side...only topping out in the low
70s across much of central Nebraska. This is a large departure
from western Kansas where mostly clear skies will allow highs
to approach 100 degrees in many areas.

This evening, convection is expected to develop over western
Kansas. Initially, convective parameters would favor a few of
these storms becoming strong to severe. These storms should
generally weaken as they move northeastward into our area later
in the evening hours, but some sub-severe hail cannot be ruled
out in portions of northern Kansas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms persist into Friday morning. In all, some
locations could see an additional 1.00-1.50", but most spots
likely will only see 0.25" or less. These showers are
anticipated to clear by mid morning, resulting in a drier and
warmer afternoon for Friday.

This warming trend continues into the weekend as upper level
ridging builds over the central CONUS. Temperatures likely reach
the 90s across the entire area Saturday, with some locations
approaching 100 degrees on both Sunday and Monday. Heat index
values near 105 degrees are likely (50% chance) in at least
some areas on Saturday, and are a near certainty (80%) on
Sunday/Monday. Some areas (especially the eastern half) could
even see heat index values exceed 110 degrees on Sunday/Monday
(40-50% chance). If these trends hold, heat headlines are likely
to be issued on upcoming shifts.

The upper ridge weakens with a few disturbances by the middle of
next week. As such, temperatures trend a bit cooler with some
chances for rain. That said, meaningful rain is far from a
guarantee at this point. Many global ensemble members maintain
dry or mostly dry conditions for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR ceilings are present at both terminals with reduced
visibilities with patchy fog, Visibilities may drop to 1 mile or
slightly less. Fog is expected to lift later this morning with
flight conditions improving to VFR this afternoon. Cloud cover
will eventually erode at both terminals later today as well.
Tonight, fog will be a concern again, with IFR to LIFR
conditions for both ceilings and visibility at both terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion