49°F
Updated:
4/2/2023
01:18:44am

Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
000 FXUS63 KOAX 020439 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Key Messages: - Warm and breezy conditions Sunday with very high rangeland fire danger in many areas during the afternoon. - A strong weather system to impact the region Tuesday and Tuesday night with potential hazards being severe weather, accumulating snow, wildfire danger, and strong winds. Tonight and Sunday: A ridge of surface high pressure centered over the mid-MO Valley this afternoon will shift east tonight ahead of a cold front moving through the Dakotas and central High Plains. The front will eventually push through our area Sunday. Winds will switch to south ahead of the front tonight with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. The south winds will bring warmer conditions to the region Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 50s near the SD border to lower 70s over portions of southeast NE and southwest IA. The warm temperatures will offset a modest increase in boundary- layer moisture content with minimum RH values of 20-25% south of I-80 in NE during the afternoon. As a result, very high rangeland fire danger is forecast across that area, as well as over much of southwest IA and northeast NE where stronger winds will compensate for higher RH. Sunday night and Monday: Low to midlevel warm advection is forecast to strengthen across region in response to the amplification of a prominent midlevel trough over the interior west. Within that regime, the models indicate the potential for showers to develop over the lower-MO Valley Sunday night with that activity spreading north/northeast into portions of eastern NE and IA Monday. There`s still a fair amount of model variability in the location and coverage of the precipitation area, so we will only include 20-30% PoPs in this forecast. Clouds and any areas of rain will limit daytime heating with highs on Monday in the 50s. Monday night through Wednesday: The main focus of this forecast is another significant extra- tropical cyclone which is forecast to move through the Great Plains Tuesday. The 12z global models remain in reasonably good agreement in the track and intensity of the system with the current data suggesting a weather scenario on Tuesday quite similar to that yesterday (Friday). Both the SPC Day 4 outlook and Colorado State machine-learning severe-weather probabilities indicate the western edge of a broader threat area developing Tuesday afternoon over portions of eastern NE and southwest IA, along ahead of a migratory surface low and associated dryline. Expect this western edge of severe threat to fluctuate between now and Tuesday as subsequent model runs continue to refine the timing of the weather system. Between the dryline and cold front (mainly over southeast NE), the potential will exist for an overlap of low RH and strong winds, which could result in very high to extreme rangeland fire danger Tuesday afternoon. To the north of the surface low track, the WPC continues to highlight the northwest part of our area as having a 30-50% chance of > 0.25" liquid equivalent (i.e., snowfall amounts > 2.0-2.5") Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gradient winds will also be quite strong; from the south/southwest Tuesday afternoon, and the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will indicate a chance of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area Monday night with the exception being near the SD border where a mix of rain and snow is possible. Highest precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night will be over the northern half of the area, in closer proximity to the deformation axis of the synoptic system. Highs Tuesday will be a function of surface low track; but for now, we will indicate readings ranging from 40s in the northwest part of our area to around 80 in the Falls City vicinity. Highs Wednesday will be notably cooler and in the 30s over northeast NE with 40s elsewhere. Thursday and Friday: A relatively cool air mass will remain in place Thursday with highs in the 40s to low 50s. Readings are expected to be warmer by Friday; in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 LLWS threat will persist through the early morning hours at all terminals. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south leading up to a cold frontal passage this afternoon as winds gradually shift to the NW. Expect winds to eventually subside by early evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...DEE
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
000 FXUS63 KGID 020524 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023 ...Aviation Update... .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Key Messages: * Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible for a portion of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas Saturday and Sunday afternoons. * A potent storm system will move across the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a chance of rain, snow, and wind. Any small change in the track of this system will impact the amount of precipitation and the type of precipitation we will receive. * Expect a drier forecast to end the week, with temperatures returning to the 50s and 60s. Sunny skies continue across the region this afternoon, along with some very nice temperatures. Expect highs to reach the 50s and 60s. Near-critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon for areas of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska, particularly along and west of Highway 183. This is due to minimum relative humidity values falling into the 20 to 25 percent range with west-southwesterly winds gusting to around 20 to 25mph. Zonal flow develops late this afternoon, persisting across the region through early Monday morning. Winds transition from the south early Sunday morning to the northwest as a boundary moves into the region. Gusty winds and minimum relative humidity values falling in the 20 to 25 percent range will result in the possibility of near-critical fire weather conditions for portions of south central Nebraska Sunday afternoon. Warmer afternoon temperatures are expected to reach into the 60s and 70s. Dry conditions persist through the weekend and into Monday. An upper trough deepens over the west on Monday, with a closed low developing early Tuesday morning over Colorado and Wyoming. The low will strengthen as it progresses east through the day. The track still favors the bulk of any precipitation over the Nebraska Panhandle into the Dakotas with portions of our area getting dry slotted. Precipitation chances have moved a little further to the south and east since the last forecast. P-type is initially expected to be rain, mixing with snow as temperatures fall. Tuesday is expected to be a fairly windy day as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the area as the low continues to intensify and move to the northeast. There is a possibility of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions for the southeastern part of the area. There will also be a tight temperature gradient in place, with highs in the 40s in the northwest and in the mid-70s in the southeastern part of the area. Confidence in the spread in temperatures is low, as a change in the track of this system will impact them. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday for areas north of I- 80 as the low lifts to the northeast, out of the region. Expect a much cooler day for several areas, as high temperatures range from the mid-30s in the north to upper 40s in the south. A broad trough remains over the area Thursday and Friday, with drier conditions expected. Temperatures will begin on a gradual warming trend through the end of the forecast period, returning to the upper 50s to mid-60s by Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023 Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain in the mid- upper levels. Potential for gusty southerly winds will stick around for few more hours, but speeds are expected to taper off closer to sunrise. Models continue to show LLWS at both sites though 09Z at KEAR and 10Z at KGRI. Winds during the daytime hours will turn more westerly, then north-northwesterly as a sfc frontal boundary sinks south through the area. Gusts near 20 MPH will again be possible this afternoon. Winds in the final few hours of the TAF are expected to turn more ENErly. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...ADP
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