Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

297
FXUS63 KOAX 101047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering storms continue overnight with little-to-no
  risk for severe weather.

- Dry conditions expected for most locations Friday with highs
  in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Storm chances return over the weekend into next week. Severe
  weather may return Monday areawide and again for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

We may continue to see a few lingering storms along the
secondary front associated with the upper-level trough overnight
across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. These storms are
elevated in nature and won`t be tapping into the enhanced low-
level shear which should keep severe potential very low with
these storms overnight. CAMs clear them mostly out of our area
by 1AM, with a few lingering showers possible across far
southeast Nebraska into early Friday morning.

With storms clearing out of the area, we look ahead to Friday
with higher pressure sliding across the region. This will lead
to clearer skies, but the stationary front to our south will be
blocking any tap into the warmer air to our south. This will
keep temperatures cooler under the High with daytime high
temperatures only peaking in the upper 50s.

As this High starts to clear to the east Friday night into
Saturday, we see the cooler air mass get picked up and pushed
east on the northern fringe of the Subtropical Ridge over the
Southeast, leading to enhanced southerly flow across the Great
Plains. This will bring temperatures up as well as bring back in
moisture from the Gulf. With the return of warm, moist, unstable
air to the region, as well as volatile southwesterly flow
ejecting shortwaves through ahead of an approaching trough,
we`ll see shower and thunderstorms return to the forecast on
Saturday. These chances hold through most of the day with a
marginal risk for severe storms (level 1 of 5), main threats
being large hail and strong winds.

Rain chances lessen, but don`t completely clear on Sunday
depending on how quickly the upper-level trough can push the
cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. While the
primary deterministic models clear us out by Sunday afternoon,
some of the ensembles hold onto some lingering showers through
Sunday evening. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday we do continue
to see strong southerly flow bringing temperatures Sunday
afternoon up into the mid 70s to low 80s.

Next Week...

We`re watching potential for a couple rounds of severe storms
Monday and Tuesday next week as we continue to tap into the
warm, moist, unstable air mass from the Gulf as a couple more
shortwaves eject out of the deep upper-level trough over the
West Coast. While details remain hazy this far out, there does
appear to be a broad area of shear and instability forecast to
set up ahead of these system Monday into Tuesday, leading to
potential for all hazards including tornadoes, hail, and
damaging winds across a good portion of the Great Plains from
central Texas north into eastern Nebraska northeast toward the
Great Lakes. The severe threat shifts off to the east on
Wednesday as the deep upper-level trough over the West Coast
finally kicks free and moves through our area. While we will
continue to see chances for rain on Wednesday, the low-level jet
which has been advecting in the unstable environment shifts off
to the east leading to lower chances for anything severe.

The upper-level pattern continues to remain unsettled going into
the latter half of next week. Though temperatures trend back
closer to normal, we`ll continue to see additional low chances
for showers and storms through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions favored through much of the daytime hours, though
latest guidance has trended toward the MVFR/IFR ceilings near
SUX sliding south toward OMA around 15-18Z. For now, went with
SCT mention, but won`t completely rule out restrictions for a
short time. Winds today should generally remain near or below 10
kts, starting northeasterly and turning clockwise, becoming
easterly to southeasterly this afternoon and evening. Showers
and storms are then expected to move in after 05Z and bring MVFR
to IFR ceilings and potentially some visibility restrictions in
any heavier showers/stronger storms. Confidence is low in
coverage of TS, so kept -SHRA mention for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

095
FXUS63 KGID 101130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 50s today with mostly dry weather during the
  daytime hours (15-25% PoPs south of Hwy 6).

- More widespread precipitation chances late this evening-
  overnight. A few of these storms could produce small hail.

- Above normal temperatures return Saturday onwards behind a
  warm front with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Multiple rounds of showers/storms continue Saturday into early next
  week, most likely across eastern portions of the area. Some
  of these storms could be strong-severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Temperatures this morning are in the upper 20s (north) to low 40s
(south) under partly cloudy skies. Storms have largely left the
forecast area, through a few scattered storms remain possible
along/south of Highway 136 through sunrise. Aloft the area is under
zonal flow with a shortwave trough currently moving into the
Midwest. Highs today will be in the 50s, coldest across southwestern
portions of the area where cloud coverage is expected to be the most
robust. A few scattered showers/storms are possible (15-25%) during
the afternoon hours, mainly across far southern portions of the
area.

Tonight more widespread PoPs return to the area along a developing
Low Level Jet. Small hail is possible in some of these storms given
a few hundred joules of CAPE and modest shear (30-40kts). This
cluster of showers/storms looks to move north/east of the area
shortly after sunrise on Saturday. An approaching shortwave trough
lifts a warm front north across the area on Saturday, with highs
climbing into the 70s during the afternoon south of the front.
Strong southerly flow and moisture advection results in dewpoints
reaching the 50s to low 60s on Saturday. CAM guidance shows a weakly
capped environment in place Saturday afternoon, though guidance
remain split on if or how widespread thunderstorm development will
be. If a storm does develop it could become strong to severe given
favorable CAPE (1000-2000 J/Kg) and shear (30-40kts), especially if
near the warm front. Given current CAM guidance, current PoPs
Saturday daytime (50-85%) are likely overdone, and may need to be
lowered in future forecasts. Additional scattered thunderstorm
development is possible across portions of western Nebraska/Kansas
Saturday evening along the dryline. These storms would move into
western portions of the area late Saturday evening-night. A few of
these storms could be on the stronger side but given the timing of
storm arrival the exact strength and coverage is uncertain.

Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track as southwesterly
flow sets up over the area. This will bring multiple chances for
strong-severe thunderstorms as a series of disturbances move through
the area. The exact position of the cold front/dryline will help to
determine how widespread severe weather chances are (most likely
across eastern portions of the area). Highs will generally be in the
70s/80s, with lows in the 40s/50s. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026


Today/Tonight...

The cold front, which passed through the area last night, has since
stalled into a stationary boundary near the NE/KS state border this
afternoon. As a result, a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms have
managed to pop up across a select portion of the area. The coverage
of thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly minor (less than 25%
of the area) with concentrations mainly east of HWY-281 through the
rest of the afternoon/night.

A few of the scattered storms later this evening may become strong
to severe (mainly between the 5-11PM timeframe). The best potential
for storms to become severe will be for ones that develop south of I-
80 (areas closer to and south of the stationary boundary) where the
better moisture and instability will lie (upper 40s to mid 50s
dewpoints with 1,000-2,000J of MUCAPE). A Slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather encompasses portions of Webster, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties in Nebraska as well as Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne
and Mitchell counties in Kansas with a Marginal risk (level 1 of
5) covering a good portion of locations south of the interstate.
Hail up to the size of half dollars with thunderstorm wind gusts
near 60MPH will be possible within the strongest storms.

Overall, the coverage of any severe activity should remain somewhat
limited in coverage across only a few southeastern portions of the
area. Through decent 30-40kts of bulk shear will be in place with
some modest low-level helicity south of the boundary, the low
dewpoints no greater than the mid 50s with high LCLs (>1,500m)
should limit the tornadic potential this evening (to mainly a hail
and wind threat). Flooding is also not expected to be a concern as
storm motions should keep most of the convection rolling on through
(around 25-40MPH), limiting residence times of any heavy downpours.

Beyond the storm potential today/tonight, winds starting out of an
easterly direction north of the stationary front and southerly
direction south of the front, will become east to northeasterly
overnight across the area. Lows tonight will also likely fall to
their coldest point until Tuesday night as lows reach down to the
30s to mid 40s.


Friday & Saturday...

Temperatures for Friday will generally remain on the cooler side
(mid 50s to low 60s) as excessive cloud coverage looms overhead with
steady northeast cold air advection to start the day. The 10-15MPH
steady northeast winds gusting as high as 20-25MPH will gradually
turn east to southeasterly through the day. Though an isolated and
non-severe thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Friday afternoon to
evening, the slightly better potential will not occur until the
overnight hours when the low-level jet kicks in. Even then, the
latest CAM`s have significantly decreased the coverage of storms
across the overnight period, likely as result from weak synoptic
support underneath a zonal to weak ridging pattern in the upper-
levels. Precipitation chances look more to be a hit or miss with
likely only a few areas that may catch meaningful precipitation
amounts greater than 0.2".

Slightly stronger southerly winds for Saturday may blow between 20
to 25 MPH with gusts as high as 30-35MPH possible. The stronger
winds will come as a surface low ejecting out of the Northern
Rockies quickly races towards the Northern Plains. This wind will
help bring in warmer air with highs raising around 15-20 degrees
into the 70s compared to Friday. A similar story precipitation-wise
may play out Saturday as any storms that do form throughout the day
will be expected to be highly scattered in coverage. A marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) covers the central and southeastern 2/3rd of the
area. The strongest storms could produce quarter sized hail with
wind gusts near 60MPH.


Sunday and Beyond...

The continuation of southerly to southwesterly winds through Monday
will help highs maintain in the upper 70s to mid 80s range for both
Sunday and Monday. The next major pattern change up will come Tuesday
as an upper-level trough approaches the Central U.S. A surface
cyclone is favored to form across the Central Plains, potentially
bringing another round of severe weather to at least a portion of
the area. The southeast corner of the area is clipped by the
Storm Prediction Center`s extended Day 6 (Tuesday) 15% Severe
Weather Outlook. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to wobble
between the 70s and low 80s through next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through sunset. MVFR-IFR ceilings
favored Friday night-Saturday morning. BKN-OVC low to mid level
VFR ceilings are expected throughout the daytime hours. A few
isolated showers are possible during the day, but look to remain
south of the terminals. After sunset, MVFR stratus is favored to
move into KGRI/KEAR from the south. Scattered showers/storms are
possible within this stratus deck. Late in the TAF period, the
stratus deck lowers to IFR with a chance for LIFR though
uncertainty remains on timing and location.

Northeasterly winds shift to the southeast during the daytime
hours, with sustained winds of 10-15kts. Southeast winds
continue overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion