Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

223
FXUS63 KOAX 300400
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1000 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Friday morning (30% chance), mainly
  across east-central Nebraska. Accumulations are expected to
  remain below one inch.

- Colder conditions today through Saturday, including Friday
  highs in the teens and Saturday morning wind chills from 10 to
  20 degrees below zero.

- Additional show chances (40-70%) return Saturday afternoon
  into early Sunday, followed by a warm-up toward near-normal
  temperatures by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict
broad troughing over the east-central CONUS, with ridging building
into the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft has kept high
temperatures confined to the low 20s today. Shortwave energy
pivoting across the Upper Midwest will continue to produce spotty
flurries across the area today. Any additional accumulations will be
limited to a dusting.

Tonight into Friday morning, another round of light snow is possible
across east-central Nebraska, mainly affecting the far western
portions of the forecast area, as modest forcing for ascent
overspreads a stalled boundary in central Nebraska. PoPs of 15-30%
remain in place, with any additional accumulations again expected to
be light, under one-half inch. Snow chances will diminish through
the day Friday as surface high pressure pushes into the region.

Through Friday, a tangled assortment of disturbances pivoting
through the Upper Midwest will act to further amplify the parent
trough and introduce a positive tilt. This evolving pattern will
usher a cooler airmass into the region, with Friday morning lows
falling into the single digits and wind chills of 5 to 15 degrees
below zero. Afternoon highs are only expected to reach the teens.

Saturday and Sunday...

The colder airmass will remain firmly in place Saturday morning,
with low temperatures falling into the single digits below zero and
wind chills ranging from 10 to 20 degrees below zero. Afternoon
highs on Saturday are expected to reach the 20s. Meanwhile, an
additional shortwave disturbance moving into the northern Plains
will induce surface cyclogenesis, with the low forecast to track
along the US/Canada border through the weekend while dragging an
associated frontal boundary southward. Along and ahead of this
boundary, snow chances will return to the area from early Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday, with PoPs in the 40-70% range.

Uncertainty remains regarding snowfall amounts this weekend.
EPS/EPS-AIFS continues to depict better moisture overall and a
farther south solution across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
compared to most GEFS members. That said, GEFS guidance has
trended slightly farther south with the snow axis, increasing
confidence that snowfall will occur, though expected amounts
remains uncertain. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance indicates a 60-90%
probability of at least once inch of snow across northeast
Nebraska, decreasing to around 30% near the NE/KS border. In
contrast, the GEFS probabilities peak at only 30- 40% in
northeast Nebraska. Forecast confidence in snow amounts will
continue to hinge on how these solutions converge as the system
approaches, though areas of 1-2 inches appear likely.

Snow is expected to exit the area during the first half of Sunday as
a mid- to upper-level ridge builds into the region. Temperatures
will respond quickly, with highs climbing into the 30s to
potentially the lower 40s. This quick warmup may briefly allow for a
rain-snow mix on the back edge of the departing precipitation shield
before precipitation fully ends.

Monday and Beyond...

Mid- to upper-level ridging will persist into the start of the work
week, supporting highs in the 30s to low 40s across the area. A mid-
level low moving into the northern Plains late Tuesday into
Wednesday will briefly dampen the ridge and bring low precipitation
chances back to the area, with PoPs in the 15-30% range. Long-range
guidance continues to show considerable spread in the track of this
feature, resulting in lower confidence in precipitation timing and
coverage at this time.

Ridging is then expected to rebuild across the region by midweek,
allowing a warmer airmass to return. Highs are forecast to climb
into the 40s, with some locations potentially reaching the low 50s
to end the work week. This warmer pattern appears likely to persist,
as both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal
temperatures along with below-normal precipitation totals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light snow has moved into northeast Nebraska briefly, with
additonal periods of light snow possible, mainly across east-
central Nebraska down through southeast Nebraska which could
impact KLNK. MVFR cigs now look to stay southwest of KOMA and
KOFK, mainly impacting KLNK overnight with the 30% chance for
occasional light snow. Winds overnight will remain light
generally out of the north. Expect increasing winds on Friday
with clearing skies into the afternoon. Clear skies hold
overnight with winds around 10-12kt through the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

437
FXUS63 KGID 300913
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
313 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of light snow will continue to push SSE across the
  area during the day today, mainly during the morning-early
  afternoon hours. Snowfall accumulations are expected to be
  less than 1 inch.

- A cold front sinking SSW through the area today will usher in
  NNE winds, with gusts of 20-25 MPH not out of the question
  this afternoon. Temperatures for many spots won`t really go
  much of anywhere...highs expected to be in the teens in the
  NNE to mid 20s SW.

- Clearing skies, light winds and a colder airmass will allow
  for lows tonight to drop below zero. Wind chill values of -10
  to -20 will be possible late tonight-early Sat AM.

- Another disturbance pushing SE through the area will bring
  additional chances for light snow during the day on Saturday.
  Again notable accumulations are not expected, with totals less
  than 1 inch.

- Dry conditions and warmer temps return to start the new week,
  with highs Mon-Tue further into the 40s, and some 50s in the
  west.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Currently through the daytime hours today...

Overall, been a quiet night across the forecast area...and
outside of a few breaks in cloud cover, skies are mostly
cloudy. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data are showing
north-northwesterly flow in place across the region...set up
between weaker ridging along the West Coast, and low
pressure/troughing over eastern Canada/northeastern US. Radar
continues to show a swath of scattered light snow extending SW
out of western SD into NNWrn portions of NE and into portions of
our forecast area. A few of our automated sensors have reported
light snow at times, likely amounting to little if anything up
to this point. This snow is being driven by lift at the base of
troughing extending east roughly from the Nrn Plains through the
Great Lakes into the NErn CONUS. At the surface, currently have
light/variable winds at most locations...with a cold frontal
boundary sitting just NNE of the our forecast area across north
central/eastern NE.

For the rest of this morning on through the daytime hours
today...things will continue to be driven by this southward
sinking upper level disturbances, keeping the potential for
light snow around much of the day. The better chances will
gradually focus further south with time, by mid-late afternoon
have chances mainly along/south of a Lexington to Beloit
line...then ending by early evening. Not looking at any notable
accumulations, expecting less than 1 inch total. The sfc cold
front boundary will also be sinking south with time today, as
high pressure pushes south out of central Canada. This boundary
will usher in NNErly winds across the area, with speeds around
15 MPH, but gusts near 20-25 MPH are possible this afternoon.
Cold air advecting in with this front will keep temps from going
much of anywhere through the day...many (most?) locations may
be seeing their high for the days occur during the morning
hours. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper teens in the NNE to
mid 20s further SW.

Tonight through the weekend...

Expecting a lull in between disturbances this evening and
tonight, so the forecast remains dry. Main concern overnight
will be with temperatures and wind chill values. Later today, as
that disturbance/sfc boundary and snow chances sink south, so
will the greater cloud coverage...allowing for mostly clear
skies for most locations tonight. Models are showing the center
of the area of sfc high pressure currently over central Canada
sliding south right through central/eastern portions of the
forecast area...bringing light/variable winds, turning more
southerly as we get closer to sunrise Saturday. The combo of a
colder airmass, light winds, and little sky cover is expected to
bring low temperatures dropping below zero. Overall not much
change in wind chills tonight, with values around -10 to -20
possible. Values remain marginal for a formal Cold Weather
Advisory...and after collab with neighbors decided to hold off.
Main question marks lie with winds...the longer they remain
light/variable before increasing out of the south the
better...and across western areas that will have those
increasing southerlies first, models are showing increasing mid-
upper level cloud cover pushing in from the west...which could
steady-out/raise temps enough to keep wind chills up. Thought
it`d be best for the day shift to get another run of models to
further fine tune things.

During the daytime hours on Saturday, models showing another
upper level shortwave disturbance pushing southeast out of the
Nrn Rockies and onto the Plains...bringing additional show
chances to the forecast area. Not much change with models
showing this being another quick-hitting disturbance, with snow
totals again mainly under 1 inch. Temps will again be below
normal, with the forecast in the upper teens east to mid 20s
west.

Sunday brings upper level ridging working its way east through
the Rockies...keeping the forecast for the day dry, with
warmer temperatures in the mid 40s east to mid 50s west.

Monday on...

No notable changes made to the forecast for the new work
week...an overall dry week, with only precipitation chances
currently forecast coming Tue night into Wednesday. Forecast
highs are in the 40s-50s Mon-Tue, brief cooldown Wed into the
30s-40s, with mainly 50s for Thu-Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

This afternoon/evening...

Temperatures are currently sitting in the 20s to 30s this afternoon.
A few lingering snow showers are dissipating across
southeastern portions of the area. A few additional snow showers
may develop/impact areas mainly along/north of Interstate 80
through the evening hours. Little if any accumulation (up to a
couple of tenths) is expected with these showers.

Tonight-Saturday...

Another round of snow showers/bands develops overnight across
northern Nebraska as troughing deepens over the central U.S. This
snow will enter northern portions of the area during the early
morning hours on Friday. Around sunrise, areas most favored to see
snow will be along and northeast of the Tri-Cities. Snow will
steadily shift southwest across the area Friday morning-
afternoon as an arctic high moves into the area. Any remaining
snow is favored to exit far southwestern portions of the area
during the late afternoon-early evening hours. Cloud coverage
and increasing cold air advection Friday afternoon will confine
highs to the teens (northeast) and 20s (southwest).

Skies clear and winds decrease Friday night-Saturday morning under
the high pressure system. This will result in favorable conditions
for temperatures to drop below zero Saturday morning. Light
winds should keep wind chills in the negative teens, and just
shy of "official" advisory criteria. Stronger winds look to
arrive in the mid-late morning hours, just past the coldest
temperatures and avoiding more frigid wind chills. Southerly
flow strengthens on Saturday ahead of an approaching clipper
system, allowing highs to reach the 20s despite the cold start.

As the clipper system moves into the area Saturday afternoon, it
will bring another chance for light snow to the area. This band of
snow will moves west to east across the area. There remains some
uncertainty in regards to how widespread and how far south this band
of snow develops. The 12z ECMWF shows a more robust band that
impacts all of our Nebraska counties and portions of north-central
Kansas, whereas the NAM and GFS keep snow across northern portions
of the area or even north of the area entirely. Either way, any snow
that falls in this band will be light, with accumulations generally
under an inch. Any lingering snow would exit eastern portions of the
area by the late evening hours.

Sunday Onwards...

Ridging builds over the Rockies and Plains on Sunday and Monday
allowing temperatures to climb above above normal, in the 40s and
50s. A passing disturbance brings a low (15-20%) chance for precip
on Tuesday, though the best chances look to be east of the area at
this time. Otherwise northwesterly flow-ridging is expected through
the end of the forecast period/end of next week. Highs will
generally be in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 10s/20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings are expected to impact the area
by around 09z and continue until around 15z to 19z. Light snow
showers may impact the area overnight but the highest chance of
snow will be from 13z to 19z. The snow and low ceilings are
expected to be out of the area by 21z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion