Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

276
FXUS63 KOAX 121100
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
500 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low (20-30%) chance of rain tonight in far northeast Nebraska
  into west-central Iowa.

- A warming trend continues into early next week, with mid 50s
  to mid 60s through the weekend, and mid 60s to near 70 by
  Tuesday.

- Low (20-40%) chance of rain late Friday night into Saturday,
  mainly near and south of I-80. Expect more rain chances
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Weak radar returns indicate the approaching shortwave trough
late this evening. Dry air in the low-levels has thus far kept
any rain from reaching the ground. That said, a low (20-30%)
chance of rain remains for portions of far northeast Nebraska
and west-central Iowa tonight before the trough departs to the
east. Surface temperatures will approach freezing near sunrise,
but this period is short, and no impacts are expected with a
warm ground. Beyond this, a gradual warming trend closes out
the week, continues into the weekend, and through the first half
of next week. Temperatures gradually warm through the 50s, into
the 60s over the weekend, to near 70 by Tuesday. This pattern
is largely dry with the exception of late Friday night into Saturday.
On Saturday, a shortwave trough moves across the southern Great
Plains. While we are far removed from this system, a low
(20-40%) chance of rain remains possible for areas primarily
south of Interstate 80. Our next weather system arrives mid to
late next week. A long wave trough is forecast to develop across
the western half of the US with shortwaves expected ahead of
this. The first of these shortwaves is likely on Tuesday and
Wednesday. This brings another chance of rain to the region. The
main trough is anticipated to follow in the coming days, but
timing and location remains uncertain. In general, we can expect
continued rain chances and and cooler temperatures with this
system late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 456 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions persist at the terminals through the forecast
period. An isolated sprinkle may be possible for the next hour
or two at KOFK. Precipitation should stay north of the other
terminals. Southerly winds will shift to the west by late
morning before becoming northwesterly this afternoon. A few high
clouds are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

023
FXUS63 KGID 121159
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today looks a touch breezier than previously expected, with at
  least a few hours of gusts 20+ MPH likely especially within
  the northwest half of our forecast area (CWA) behind a weak
  front...possibly prompting some brief near-critical fire
  weather conditions.

- Temperature-wise: Based on climatological norms of high
  temps, the entire 7-day will effectively feel like April
  instead of February! High temps most days upper 50s-mid
  60s...lows most nights upper 20s-upper 30s.

- Shorter-term precipitation (Fri night-Sat): Models continue
  offering varying ideas regarding how far north rain will push
  into our forecast area (CWA) Fri night-Saturday, but it`s
  still pretty clear that our southern CWA (especially KS)
  stands the best chance, and our northern CWA (north of I-80)
  the lowest chance.

- Longer-term precipitation (next week): While upper flow turns
  more active/southwesterly, it currently appears that precip
  chances will remain quite sparse through at least Wed, with
  MAYBE better chances arriving a bit beyond our official 7-day
  (late next week into the weekend).

- Our 7-day Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) remains "blank".
  However, there are early hints that we might need to watch a
  few days next week for at least near-critical fire weather
  conditions (GFS would perhaps suggest Tuesday as one of our
  windier days?).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 434 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH MENTIONING AND/OR ANY ABBREVIATED
 LONGER TERM FORECAST NOTES (FOR BEYOND FRIDAY):
1) In the very short term (and as mentioned above), winds
today...although not strong...also don`t look quite as light as
previously expected. Especially higher-res models are
increasingly suggestive that especially the NW half of our CWA
will have a few hours of north-northwesterly gusts 20+ MPH
behind a weak front mainly late morning-mid afternoon (brief 25
MPH gusts not out of the question).

2) If anything, official rain chances (PoPs) for Fri night-Sat
have crept upward a bit more, but with any "likely" (60+%)
chances still confined to our southern counties in KS. Even at
this closer range models still offer varying solutions, with
the latest NAM actually giving our southern counties a bit of a
soaker and spreading at least light rain even a bit north of
I-80. On the flip side, the latest GFS keeps all but the extreme
southern fringes of our CWA dry, while the latest ECMWF/ECMWF
ensemble is a "middle ground" with up to a few hundredths of
rain potential at least up to I-80, and more of a widespread
0.10-0.30" in our KS zones. Hopefully the details regarding
these rain chances come into better focus/better model agreement
over the next 24 hours.


-- DETAILED FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through
 Friday daytime):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 AM:
The vast majority of our CWA has seen a dry night, with a batch
of thicker mid-level clouds (based around 10K ft.) concentrated
over roughly our northern half, while most of our southern half
has seen a mix of clear skies/thinner high cirrus. I say "most"
of our CWA was dry because a smattering of light radar returns
along with a airport obs just outside our CWA at Albion/Columbus
strongly imply that a few rogue sprinkles/brief very light rain
likely fell within a few of our far northeast counties earlier
this morning (mainly Nance/Merrick/Polk). However, as expected
the vast majority of this meager rain activity stayed northeast
of our CWA altogether. In other departments, breezes overnight
have generally averaged 5-10 MPH from the south-southwest across
most of our CWA. Although the thicker clouds north have thus far
held up temps from falling very far, they should increasingly-
vacate as we head toward sunrise, allowing an eventual fall. In
the end, most of our CWA should realize fairly uniform
overnight lows a few degrees either wide of 30 (which is a good
10-15 degrees warmer than lows yesterday morning).


In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, the aforementioned
enhanced clouds/sprinkles in our northern zones are tied to a
weak disturbance passing through in west-northwest flow. At the
surface, weak low pressure is centered over far north central
NE...keeping our breezes generally southerly for the time being.


- TODAY (warmer but a touch breezy at times):
While there will be transient batches of passing high level
clouds, overall skies will average mostly sunny to partly
cloudy. At the surface, the weak low pressure currently over far
north central NE will track southeast toward southeast
NE/northeast KS as the day wears on. In the process, this will
drag a weak frontal boundary southward across our CWA, marked by
a switch to north-northwesterly breezes (this front should clear
roughly the northwest half of our CWA by Noon...then continue
through the remainder of our southeast this afternoon. While
this boundary is technically a cold front, forecast sounding
indicate that low-level mixing behind this front will be
sufficient to give temps a nice little boost versus yesterday,
but also bring slightly breezier conditions than previously
expected. Especially within our Nebraska counties, sustained
speeds will likely reach 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH, with the
latest HRRR even painting some gusts around 25 MPH in counties
mainly north of I-80 especially late morning-early afternoon.
Again, not truly "strong" winds, but also not as light as was
expected here 24 hours ago. Temperature-wise, due in part to the
enhanced low-level mixing, today looks a touch warmer as well,
and afternoon highs were nudged up slightly...most of our CWA
now aimed 58-63 degrees. Due to the combo of the slightly warmer
temps, slightly stronger winds, and slightly lower
dewpoints/relative humidity (RH), it now appears that a brief
period of near-critical fire weather conditions could occur this
afternoon mainly in our northern half due to a combo of 20+ MPH
gusts/RH 25% or less. Considered adding this to our Hazardous
Weather Outlook, but it seemed marginal/brief enough to omit for
now (outright-critical conditions are certainly not expected).


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
It should be a dry night, although a few models have subtle
hints of a sprinkles perhaps trying to invade our far southwest
CWA toward sunrise (too low of a probability for forecast
inclusion). Otherwise, in some ways tonight closely resembles
Tues night-Wed AM (two nights ago)...with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overhead (passing mid-high clouds), while at the
surface a high pressure/ridge axis noses southward across our
area, resulting in very light (under 5 MPH)/variable direction
winds to develop...especially post-midnight. Unless clouds are
thicker/more prevalent than forecast, would not be surprised if
low temps drop a bit colder than currently forecast (this also
happened Wed AM). However, readings should not be AS cold as Wed
AM was either, with most areas aimed between 25-30 degrees
(except colder low 20s far north around Ord).


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Even the most aggressive models keep the far northern fringes of
any rain shower activity at least slightly south of our CWA
altogether through at least sunset, so a dry forecast continues.
However, mid-high level clouds will gradually increase out of
the south- southwest as the day wears on, with the morning
averaging mostly sunny/partly cloudy and then the afternoon
partly-mostly cloudy. Interestingly, winds now appear to perhaps
be overall-lighter (certainly no stronger) than today, with
very light speeds to start the day eventually becoming a bit
steadier out of the south-southeast for the afternoon (sustained
speeds around 10 MPH/gusts around 15 MPH). High temps were
changed very little and should be very similar to today, with
most places aimed within a few degrees either side of 60.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions remain in place across the region today, with
satellite imagery showing variable cloud cover as batches of
mid-upper level clouds pass through. Upper level flow over the
Plains remains zonal...with upper air and satellite data showing
us set up between area of low pressure spinning off the
northern CA coast and over eastern ME. South-southwesterly winds
continue across the forecast area this afternoon, sitting on
the west edge of an area of sfc high pressure roughly centered
over the NE/IA/MO/KS border area. Overall speeds have been
around 15 MPH, with a handful of gusts closer to 20 MPH at
times. No big surprises as far as temperatures go, on track to
top out in the low-mid 50s. Near-critical fire weather
conditions will remain a possibility across the western fringes
the rest of this afternoon, but not looking at hitting Red Flag
criteria.

Tonight into Thursday...

Models continue to show the potential for some scattered light
precip later tonight associated with a weak upper level
disturbance crossing the Central/Nrn Plains. Kept the forecast
dry, as agreement is pretty good with the better chances
remaining focused just off to our NNE near the NE/SD/IA border
area. Otherwise no notable changes were noted in models, which
keep the zonal upper level flow in place, with that West Coast
disturbance pushing further inland and digging into southern CA
through Thursday night. At the surface, winds tonight remain
southerly, turning more SWrly late tonight as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. During the day on Thursday, this
boundary gradually pushes through the region...but other than
bringing a switch to more NNWrly winds, not much in terms of
notable impact is expected. Expecting sky cover to once again be
variable...and forecast afternoon highs are actually a touch
warmer, reaching the mid 50s-near 60 degrees.

Friday and Saturday...

Main forecast concern for the end of the week remains with
increasing preciptiation chances. The upper level disturbance
mentioned above over southern CA is shown by models to start
making a better push east during the day on Friday, ending up
roughly over the AZ/NM border by late evening. Looking like that
12-00Z Friday time frame is dry for most/potentially all of the
forecast area...could be a close call late in that period for
far SW portions. Will be seeing increasing cloud cover from SW-
NE as that system approaches...with winds switching back to the
south as sfc low pressure deepens a big over the central High
Plains. Forecast highs remain right around 60 degrees.

Friday night on into the day on Saturday...overall models aren`t
in too bad of a agreement with the track of this upper level
system. Outside of some minor track/timing details...models
showing the center of the system sliding along the OK/TX border.
This keeps the brunt of precipitation south of the forecast
area in KS/OK/TX...with the NAM remaining on the more aggressive
side with how far north QPF gets, with amounts around 0.5in
reaching into southern NE. Agreement is good that the thermal
profiles support this being an all-liquid event, which is pretty
unusual for mid-February. Looking at the GFS/ECMWF
deterministic and ensemble data, those type of amounts are over
the southern half of KS and points south. Ensemble data show the
probability of 0.5 in or more only around 10 percent, and
that`s just along our far southern row of counties.
Probabilities of 0.1 in are better, with the 10 percent line
closer to HWY 6, and roughly 40- 50 percent along our southern
row of counties. What precip there ends up being is expected to
end by mid-late evening Saturday. Confidence in highs for
Saturday is not high because of the uncertainties with the
northward extend of precip (which will be hindered by drier
air/more northerly winds)...current forecast has low-mid 50s in
the SSE to near 60 in the NNW.

Sunday and on...

For the first half of the new week, currently much of it looks
to be on the dry side for most of the forecast area. For
Sunday and Monday (and possibly Tuesday as well) , overall-broad
upper level ridging is expected to slide onto the Plains in the
wake of Fri-Sat`s system, keeping things dry. Potential for
another system to bring preciptiation moves in late in the day
Tuesday, more likely Tues night-Wednesday...at this point models
are favoring the northern half of the forecast area with those
chances. With being in the Day 6-7 periods, hard to have a ton
of confidence in many details...chances remain low at 20
percent. Ahead of that system, potential for temperatures to
climb further into the 60s (maybe some 70s?), currently forecast
to top out on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
This is an extremely high confidence period regarding VFR
ceiling/visibility (and dry weather), with only transient
batches of mid-high level clouds based no lower than 10-15K ft. AGL.

Surface winds won`t be a significant issue, although there will
be a directional shift with a touch of breeziness. Right away
this morning, south-southwesterly breezes under 10KT will
gradually turn more westerly ahead of a weak cold front, with
this front passing through KEAR/KGRI around 16-17Z. In its wake,
winds turn north-northwesterly with sustained speeds
around/slightly over 10KT/gusts around/slightly over 15KT likely
through much of the rest of the daytime. This evening,
northerly winds will diminish...with breezes becoming very
light/variable direction overnight in the presence of surface
high pressure.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion