Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

386
FXUS63 KOAX 050625
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1225 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog are expected tonight west of a line from
  Platte to Knox County and west. Other areas of patchy fog are
  possible.

- Widespread showers and storms expected late Thursday into
  Friday morning (60-80% chance). A few storms may be strong to
  severe with hail the main threat (5% chance).

- Showers and storms expected again for Friday afternoon/evening
  (60-80% chance). Some storms may be strong to severe (15-30%
  chance), mainly east southeast of a line from near Red Cloud
  to Fremont to Onawa.

- Lingering precipitation late Friday into Saturday may lead to
  a dusting of snow (40-60% chance) in far northeast Nebraska.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 11 AM CST form Platte to
Knox Counties and west. Clear skies have allowed for rapid fog
development and this fog is expected to be dense at times. Fog
will begin dissipating by late morning as south winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis shows the H5 shortwave trof finally over
the area. A belt of weak forcing for ascent is observed near and
just ahead of the vort max leading to some weak rain showers along
the Kansas/Nebraska border area. Have kept some low end 15 to 20%
PoPs along those areas into southwest Iowa through at least 08z.

The pesky low level stratus remains in place over much of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa helping keep temperatures in mid to upper
40s as of 05z. Clearing is observed though over our west, and with
calm winds in place and lingering moisture, should see areas of fog
develop. 00z HREF probs highlight areas along and west of a line
from near West Point to Seward in a 40 to 80% chance of seeing
visibilities drop to 1/2 mile or less after 08z. Will monitor trends
overnight to see if a Dense Fog Advisory may be necessary.
Temperatures should be above freezing helping limit the potential
for slick spots this morning, but plan to take it slow and add a few
extra minutes to your morning commute if you encounter fog. Fog
should burn off by mid morning.

For today, should see some thinning out in cloud cover. An H8
baroclinic zone will swing to the northeast during the day helping
bring in warmer air. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s
areawide, while lows cool to the mid 40s to low 50s as clouds start
to increase. By the evening hours, will see the potent H5 wave
currently over the western CONUS start to approach the Rockies, with
a series of weak shortwaves ejecting ahead of the main feature. QG
forcing overspreads the area late tonight in tandem with low level
theta-e advection. As a result, should see showers and thunderstorms
gradually develop in coverage from south to north late Thursday into
Friday morning. BUFKIT forecast soundings suggest much of the 500 to
1000 J/kg of CAPE remain rooted aloft around H8. Speed convergence
along the nose of the H8 LLJ should help push parcels upward,
utilizing the CAPE. 0-6km bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts could
result in a few strong storms capable of producing mainly large
hail. At this time, a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather
is in effect for much of the forecast area Thursday evening into
Friday morning. PoPs increase from southwest to northeast after 02z
Friday, peaking at 60 to 80% early Friday morning.

For Friday, the positively tilted trof will finally push into
the Plains. The trof will induce lee cyclogenesis, with a sfc
low tracking northeast in tandem with the wave. The sfc low will
drag a cold front over the area during the daytime. Ahead of
the front in the warm sector, should see instability pool
resulting in an increasingly unstable air mass with impressive
0-6km bulk shear of 40 to 50kts. Forecast BUFKIT soundings from
the HRRR suggest some CIN in the late afternoon eventually
eroding as steeper lapse rates arrive, with convection becoming
sfc based in an environment of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCABE.
Soundings also show a considerable pocket of dry air. All these
ingredients point to the threat for strong to severe storms with
all hazards possible, mainly east southeast of a line from near
Red Cloud to Fremont to Onawa where a slight risk (level 2 of
5) of severe weather is in effect, while the enhanced risk
(level 3 of 5) clips areas of our far southeast including Falls
City.

Taking a look at the latest 00z CAM guidance, the NAMNest, HiRes
ARW, NSSL WRF, and HRRR suggest the sfc cold front will have crossed
a large chunk of the forecast area aside from our very far southeast
areas by 23z. Timing of this front will play a critical role in
determining if we`ll see strong to severe convection blossom in our
area. At this time, those previously mentioned CAMs ignite the brunt
of convection just to our southeast, and rapidly push it into
central Iowa, while post-frontal showers and storms linger in the
forecast area. The HiRes FV3 seems to be the one outlier which
develops a few supercellular features over northeast Nebraska in the
late evening.

Another item to note: CAMs suggest lingering precip from the
deformation zone of the sfc low persisting over northeast Nebraska
Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures should cool enough to
result in a dusting of snow for areas northwest of a line from near
Columbus to Pender, NE as ensembles show anywhere from 40 to 60%
chance of that occurring. Probabilities signficantly fade the
farther southeast you go. Forecast soundings also suggest we lose
ice intro at times with lingering deep, low level saturation. With
temps below freezing, could see a brief window of freezing drizzle
develop in northeast Nebraska resulting in a few slick spots. Those
with travel plans will want to keep a close eye on this forecast.
PoPs remain in the 60 to 80% range for much of Friday areawide.
Highs Friday ahead of the main cold front will be in the 60s to low
70s over our far south. Lows Friday night cool to the mid 20s to
near the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Saturday will see the H5 shortwave lift northeast while sfc high
pressure moves over the area. Dry conditions are expected with highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Southwesterly flow returns as the sfc
high pushes away from the area. As the H8 baroclinic zone once again
swings across, WAA ensues with temps warming to the upper 60s to low
70s areawide for Sunday. Slightly warmer temps arrive Monday with
highs in the 70s and dry conditions.

Aloft, a secondary H5 shortwave lagging behind Friday`s/Saturday`s
trof will retrograde to the southwest, eventually becoming a cut-off
low over the Baja peninsula. This places the area in quasi-zonal
flow for much of the weekend. Guidance suggests the the closed low
eventually lifting northeast by late Monday into Tuesday, turning
our flow southwesterly as several waves eject northeast ahead of the
main parent low. Thus, our next best chance for precip (40-60%
chance) arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday warm to the
mid to upper 60s and cool to the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR ceilings are currently in place over LNK and OMA. Clear
skies are currently observed at OFK. In this clearing, fog is
rapidly developing. This fog is expected to restrict terminals
to IFR visibility with dense fog possible. Dense fog would
reduce visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times. Once the fog
deck fully develops, vertical visibility will reduce effective
ceilings to IFR over OFK as well. Low clouds are anticipated to
remain over LNK and OMA overnight. This would maintain MVFR to
IFR ceilings over these terminals, but limit visibility
reductions due to fog. Fog may still result in MVFR visibility
reductions at these terminals. South winds are forecast to
increase through the mid to late morning, this supports an
improvement of conditions to eventual VFR by the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ011-016-
     017-030-031-042.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Chehak
DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

566
FXUS63 KGID 050708
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
108 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...Aviation, Key Messages and Short Term Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for most of our forecast area
  (all except a few far western counties) through 11 AM today.

- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
  this evening-overnight, but the areal coverage of storms will
  likely be pretty limited within our forecast area (many places
  more likely to see light rain/drizzle than actual convection).

- There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding temperatures
  and placement of precipitation on Friday-Friday evening. Snow
  may impact portions of the area (mainly far north-northwest)
  as well as perhaps severe storms (mainly far east-southeast).
  Any snow accumulation appears rather minimal, but falling
  snow/gusty winds could reduce visibility for a time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 108 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

-- Regarding Dense Fog Advisory through 11 AM today:

Earlier this evening, went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for the vast majority of our forecast area (CWA), as typically-
fairly-reliable visibility guidance (such as from HRRR/HREF)
depicted an increasingly-strong signal for fairly widespread
visibility reductions to at least 1/2 to 1/4 mile. Only our far
western few counties (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) were omitted from
the Advisory, as fog appears least likely to expand that far
west.

In the few hours since Advisory issuance, fog (localized dense)
actually developed earlier-than-expected within many of our
counties mainly east of Highway 281 (typical most favored area
on the backside of departing low stratus over eastern NE). There
is still some uncertainty regarding just how far west dense fog
will eventually expand (latest HRRR suggests it could struggle
to expand west of a Greeley-Kearney-Alma line on the Nebraska
side), but certainly no areal adjustments to Advisory being made
at this time. As for the official "end time" went with
17Z/11 AM...fog may not actually last this long in all areas,
but felt a 10 AM expiration was probably cutting it plenty close
on the early side (especially for east-southeast counties).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An upper level trough is over the central Plains with another upper
trough over the Pacific Northwest. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are light and variable.
Skies across the area are gradually clearing from west to east. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm up into the 50s and
60s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Light south to southeast winds will be present tonight with clear to
partly cloudy skies. Fog may develop tonight due to the above
mentioned conditions. Models are not in agreement on fog development
so confidence is medium (around 50%). Patchy fog was added areawide
to the grids tonight into Thursday morning but this may need to be
upgraded to widespread dense fog with a possible advisory being
issued.

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas will increase out of the southeast to south on Thursday. A
lee surface trough will develop across eastern Colorado, western
Nebraska, and western Kansas on Thursday in response to an
approaching upper trough. Temperatures across the area are expected
to warm up into the 60s and low 70s. Upper lift from the approaching
upper trough as well as lift from an approaching cold front will
move across the area Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will
increase across the area with dewpoints reaching into the 50s across
much of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
beginning Thursday evening/night. Not expecting much in the way of
severe weather due to very low CAPE but moderate lapse rates and
atmospheric lift and high wind shear could result in a few strong to
marginally severe storms. Low temperatures Thursday night may range
from the 30s to the 50s depending on the location of the cold front.

Rain and storms may continue into the day on Friday with the cold
front moving into the area. There is much uncertainty with high
temperatures on Friday due to the timing of the front. High
temperatures on Friday may range from the 40s in the north to the
70s in the south.  High temperatures may be reached for most areas
during the morning hours depending on the timing of the front. There
will also be precipitation development behind the front but there is
uncertainty if much of the Hastings forecast area will be impacted
by the precipitation. The most likely areas to experience
precipitation will be northern and western areas. The factors that
will determine precipitation across the area will be dependent upon
the placement of the upper low as well as drier air moving into the
area. If precipitation does move into the area behind the cold
front, some of it may be in the form of snow due to temperatures
possibly dropping near or below freezing. There is even a
possibility of severe storms across mainly southeastern portions of
the area on Friday depending on the placement of the front and upper
low. Any remaining precipitation may linger into Friday night.
Temperatures are expected to cool into the 20s and 30s Friday night
behind the front.

A surface high will be present across the area on Saturday with high
temperatures in the 50s. A warm up is expected Sunday into Monday
with highs on Monday in the 70s. A cold front will bring
temperatures into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Precipitation chances
return to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds/precipitation):
To be up front, this is an admittedly medium-confidence at best
period regarding ceiling/visibility and even to some degree
precipitation trends, with only winds being a rather high
confidence element. That being said, much of the period will
likely feature a few-to-several hours of sub-VFR conditions.

As for winds, they will not be much of an issue into the first
part of the daytime hours...mainly sustained at-or-below 8KT
out of a generally southerly direction. However, speeds ramp up
pretty noticeably by late morning and especially into the
afternoon out of the south-southeast...commonly sustained around
20KT/gusts 27-30KT. These speeds back off slightly Thursday
evening, but gusts of 20+KT remain likely.

As for precipitation potential, the vast majority of the period
should remain dry. However, anytime after 02-03Z light drizzle
could develop. There is also a small chance for a passing shower
or thunderstorm, which is included in a lower-confidence PROB30
group starting 02Z. IF any storms pass over, small hail cannot
be ruled out.


- Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainty:
Right out of the gate early this morning, at least light fog/IFR
visibility has already developed into KGRI (earlier than
expected), while KEAR remains far enough west (for now) to
remain VFR under clear skies. As the morning wears on,
confidence is at least somewhat-high that KGRI will eventually
deteriorate to LIFR ceiling in addition to at least IFR
visibility, and have a TEMPO 12-16Z for LIFR visibility (at
least brief VLIFR in outright-dense fog cannot be totally ruled
out, especially 11-15Z time frame). As for KEAR, if anything
uncertainty has increased since previous TAFs regarding whether
fog/low stratus will indeed develop that far west. Thus, while
it`s still possible that LIFR visibility/ceiling could prevail
at least a few hours there as well, opted for now to go no worse
than IFR visibility (mainly 12-15Z).

Getting into this afternoon-evening, while confidence is high
that visibility returns to VFR as fog lifts, ceiling may
struggle to solidly return to VFR (at least not for more than a
few hours). There appears to be a decent chance that an MVFR
ceiling ranging anywhere from 1,500-3,000 ft. AGL will develop
overhead and move in from the south...especially by 21-22Z. As
the evening wears on (and especially if drizzle develops),
ceiling could try dropping to IFR very late in the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion