Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

192
FXUS63 KOAX 022314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps climb another few degrees for Monday as elevated
  wildfire smoke continues to produce hazy skies.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another
  warming trend likely toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the cutoff low over
Indiana has opened up and is drifting east. The Four Corners
ridge is amplifying ahead of a deepening trof over the PACNW.

The enjoyable weather of the Corn Belt continues with temps
cooler than typical early August readings. Winds, hard to ignore
Saturday, are blowing at 0-5 knots out of the south as return
flow develops. Skies are mostly cloud-less, but wildfire smoke
drifting in from the north is blocking about 1/4 of of our
sunshine this afternoon. Very little smoke is found at the
surface, it`s generally about 5k to 8k feet off the sfc.

The patchy dense fog found this morning is not expected to
repeat overnight, at least not in Nebraska. Wind speeds of 5-15
knots and dewpoint depressions of about two degrees should be
enough to keep it at bay. Higher max RH numbers in western Iowa
will make fog development more of an uncertainty there. It`s
not currently forecast.

.MONDAY...

Wind speeds may actually tick up overnight just a bit before
becoming breezy in northeast Nebraska as the sfc pressure
gradient tightens in response to the approaching system. This
will help drive temps higher. Upper 80s are forecast for western
Iowa while eastern Nebraska will record low 90s.

Thunderstorm chances hold off until the front pushes into the
area after midnight late Monday night / early Tuesday morning.

.TUESDAY...

As the Canadian front sags across Nebraska and northern Iowa,
PoPs climb into the likely category (60%) in the northern
reaches of the CWA. I talked to the SPC convective outlook
forecaster for Tuesday and he discussed his reasoning for
leaving Tuesday "marginal-free" for now. The area should have a
reasonable amount of CAPE (1500 J/kg) and shear (35-50 knots),
but forcing for ascent and lapse rates are left wanting. I
expect at least a portion of the area to be "outlooked"
eventually as confidence in parameters grows.

The timing of the front`s arrival corresponds to the last few
hours of the latest HRRR/RAP smoke guidance, so confidence is
low, but that front may bring a bit of *sfc* wildfire smoke
with it. That smoke is forecast to become less concentrated as
it approaches, so impacts may be zero or negligible. Future runs
will reveal more.

.WEDNESDAY...

The best chance of rain and thunder (80% central/south) comes
late Tuesday night when the nocturnal jet ramps up. CAPE may hit
its peak then, although it will be elevated and therefore keep
the tornado threat low. Rain chances sink south through the day
as the front sags into Missouri. Under the clouds and showers,
max temps will end up just as close to normal highs as normal
lows (middle to upper-70s).

.LONGER RANGE...

Confidence in the forecast beyond mid-week is low as global
models diverge. The overall trend is to see the ridge of the
Desert Southwest amplify and build back over the OAX CWA which
would bring another round of summery weather that leans warm and
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Southerly
winds will begin to gust around mid-morning. Skies may be a bit
hazy with some smoke well aloft, but do not anticipate any
flight condition impacts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

844
FXUS63 KGID 022331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Forecast remains dry through the daytime hours on Monday. An
  approaching surface cold front will provide a focus for storm
  development...with some of this activity pushing east into the
  area during the evening-overnight hours.

- Additional chances for storms continue on into Tuesday and
  Wednesday, mainly focused on the late day-evening/overnight
  hours. Some uncertainties remain, as activity could be
  impacted by how sfc boundaries/lingering cloud cover evolve
  from the previous nights.

- Not out of the question that some storms Mon-Tue could be on
  the stronger side, at this point there doesn`t look be an
  overly organized severe weather threat across our area.

- Scattered precipitation chances continue on through the end of
  the week, with lowering confidence in the details the further
  out you go.

- Highs on Monday are back up in the 90s-near 100...cooling Tue-
  Wed into the 70s-80s with increased precip chances. Highs look
  to return back solidly into the 90s by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Overall been a nice end to the weekend across the area...dry
conditions continue, with satellite imagery showing no shortage
of sunshine...though still seeing some hazy skies due to
wildfire smoke streaming in from the north. A well-amplified
upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this
afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing northerly
flow across the forecast area. The Central Plains is sitting
between a ridge axis extending from the Desert SW northeastward
toward MN...becoming more dampened/tilted further east thanks to
a low pressure system moving through central Canada...and a
trough axis extending from eastern Canada south to the Gulf
Coast region. At the surface, high pressure continues to
gradually shift off to the east...but is keeping winds light
across easterly portions of the area. To the west and northwest,
a trough axis and frontal boundary are becoming better
organized across the High Plains into the western
Dakotas...bringing more solidly southerly winds to central and
western areas, with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. No big
surprises as far as temperatures go...forecast of mid-upper 80s
east to low-mid 90s west remains on track.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight.
Due to the continued deepening of the sfc low/boundaries off
to our WNW, not expecting a drop off in winds
tonight...remaining southerly around 10-15 MPH. Lows look to
drop into the mid 60s for much of the area.

Early to Mid-Week...

Getting into the start of the new work week...overall there
hasn`t been any significant changes to the forecast. During
the daytime hours on Monday...models remain in good agreement
showing an upper level disturbance working its way along the
US/Can border into the Nrn Rockies/High Plains...the forecast
for our area remains dry through 00Z. This system will be
driving a surface cold front south with time...and models are
still in decent agreement with the timing...showing at 00Z the
placement of this front runs roughly from far SWrn NE north
through the Sandhills and into central SD. Ahead of this front
during the daytime hours...expecting gusty southerly winds and a
bump up in temperatures. Sustained speeds around 20-25 MPH and
gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question...with highs
around 90 expected in the east, around 100 in the WSW. During
the mid-late afternoon hours...the RH/wind combo hits near-
critical levels across far WSW portions of the area...but with
fuels unfavorable for rapid fire growth, no formal headlines
were considered...just something to be aware of.

Main question for the evening and overnight hours Monday lies
with thunderstorm chances...still plenty of uncertainties with
the overall coverage/impact. Models showing at least scattered
activity firing along that surface boundary to work its way into
WNW portions of the forecast area...aided by convergence along
an increasing SSWrly low-level jet. With time, most models are
keeping coverage of activity generally scattered in nature with
its eastward shift...likely hindered by the fact that the better
upper level forcing is better focused to our north and that
mid-level/temps is another element storms would have to
overcome. As a result, the higher precip chances in the evening
(40-60 percent) are focused across far WNW portions of the
area...then spread east but drop into the 20-30 percent range
overnight.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday...models are in good
agreement showing that the upper level pattern has
transitioned to more zonal in nature having further dampened the
main ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
both days...as additional waves of upper level shortwave energy
push through the region. Still plenty of uncertainties with the
details...as timing/location of chances will be greatly
influenced by activity that happens the previous
evening/overnight...and how that impacts the ultimate placement
of the main surface cold front or any other lingering
boundaries. The most uncertainty with those details lies with
Tuesday/Tuesday night...as what happens then may provide enough
of a reinforcing push to focus better chances further south for
Wednesday afternoon/overnight. With the increased cloud
cover/precipitation potential...highs for Tue-Wed cool
some...with Tuesday currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s,
Wednesday in the mid-70s to lower-80s.

At this point, none of the days Monday-Wednesday are included in
the SPC severe weather outlooks...though Monday/Day 2 is
pretty close right along our NWrn edge. As mentioned above,
there are some things working against Monday evening-
overnight...and though models on Tuesday show the potential that
shear may be a bit better, the overall upper level forcing
isn`t the best...and just too much uncertainty in the details
for Wednesday. Not out of the question that some storms could be
on the stronger side...but at least at this point it`s not
looking to be an organized severe weather threat.

Late Week Into Next Weekend...

Looking at Thursday on into next weekend...models showing the
ridging trying to reamplify over the western CONUS, but between
an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area and another
working toward western Canada...additional systems moving
through the pattern prevent much strengthening. Models show the
upper level pattern across the area in varying degrees of
northwesterly flow...and while the forecast has some scattered
low-end (mainly 20 percent) chances, confidence in those are
certainly not high at this point. Warmer temperatures also look
to work their way back in...with highs potentially solidly back
in the 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period
with some marginal LLWS possible at both terminals during the
early morning hours Monday.

Expect steady south winds near 10 KTS to continue into the
evening hours as the local area remains sandwiched inbetween an
area of surface high pressure to our east and surface low
pressure on the lee side of the Rockies. While the surface winds
will mostly decouple overnight, the pressure gradient aloft
will continue to strengthen, with marginal LLWS becoming
possible at KEAR around 03/06Z...and spreading east toward KGRI
by around 03/10Z. Surface winds will then increase during the
morning hours across the area as mixing in realized, with gusts
near 25 KTS possible at both terminals by midday. No more than a
few passing high clouds are expected through the period with
southerly winds remaining too strong to justify the mention of
even patchy BR at either terminal overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion