Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

070
FXUS63 KOAX 222244
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
544 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A broken line of storms is forecast to move through this
  afternoon with a strong to severe storm or two possible. Hail
  is the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins this weekend with above normal
  temperatures expected to hold into next week.

- Low chance (20-30%) for a few storms possible Sunday
  afternoon/evening, with our next better chance for showers and
  storms starting Wednesday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Remnant showers from this morning`s storms are exiting to the
east this afternoon. We`re seeing clouds breaking up in the warm
sector of the Low over norht-central Nebraska out ahead of the
cold front which is just now moving into Knox, Antelope, and
Boone Counties. This front will be a focus for a line of
thunderstorms this afternoon, and any clearing ahead of storm
development will only aid in increasing instability and
potential storm strength. While shear is modest ~30kt 0-6km bulk
shear, instability has the potential to reach 1500 J/kg.
Hodographs show decent 0-1km shear leading to some potential for
a low- topped supercell or two. This could lead do a few
quarter-size hail reports, or damaging winds up to 60 mph, but
it`s a very marginal threat (level 1 out of 5).

Once storms clear this evening, we`ll see skies gradually clear
with winds shifting to the northwest. A surface High building in
from the southwest will bring warmer temperatures for the
weekend, starting with highs in the 70s on Saturday. Sunday
we see enhanced warm-air advection as weak ridging builds in
aloft which will lead to afternoon highs warming into the upper
70s to mid 80s. We do see a weak shortwave trough move through
during the afternoon and evening, developing a surface low over
north-central Nebraska/south-central South Dakota. This pulls in
a belt of moisture from the Gulf, potentially leading to a few
isolated to scattered showers or storms through the afternoon
and evening hours. Rain chances remain low, around 20-30%. SPC
does highlight, again, a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly
due to the ample amount of instability and decent shear
profile; however, moisture may be limited depending greatly on
how much we can advect in ahead of this system.

A deep upper-level trough digging on to the West Coast out of
the Gulf of Alaska will enhance southerly flow across the
Central CONUS early next week, maintaining above-normal
temperatures into midweek. This trough as it shifts closer will
lead to a more active weather pattern toward the latter half of
the week as we start to bring in more moisture up from the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms and MVFR conditions have formed
across far eastern Nebraska this evening, likely impacting KOMA
before clearing from west to east by 23/01-02Z. Afterwards, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period as ceilings gradually break up and improve
through the evening. A few southwesterly gusts up to 18 kts may
occur before winds calm (under 12 kts) into the evening and
become more westerly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

131
FXUS63 KGID 222005
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
305 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to isolated storms are possible (15-25%) Saturday
  and Sunday night across portions of south central Nebraska. A
  few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe capable of
  producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected Sunday Onwards
  with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

- Highs in the 80s on Memorial day with breezy winds and a low
  (15-20%) chance for storms Monday afternoon/evening.

- Scattered, off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night
  onwards though the details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This afternoon and Tonight

A cold front currently located near Highway 81 continues to make its
way across the forecast area this afternoon. A few lingering showers
continue near-just behind the front. The axis of greatest
instability shifting east of the area with the cold front makes it
doubtful that these showers/storms will do much before exiting the
area over the next couple of hours. Clearing skies this evening and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s overnight.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday climb into the 70s as a passing shortwave trough
moves into the Plains. Partly cloudy skies and light winds make for
an overall pleasant day on Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave
trough will aid the development of a few scattered thunderstorms
over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon-evening. While inhibition
increases around sunset and results in these storms weakening, it
remains plausible that a couple of these storms linger just long
enough to make it into far northwestern portions of the area before
dissipating Saturday night.


Sunday and Memorial Day...

Southwesterly flow aloft transitions to a more west-northwesterly
flow pattern on Sunday. At the surface, highs climb into the 80s
aided by breezy southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Scattered
shower/thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon-evening
along the surface trough/dryline in west-central Nebraska. CAPE and
shear would be sufficient for storms to become strong to marginally
severe.  These storms look to mainly impact northwestern portions of
the area. Any storm would gradually dissipate after sunset as
convective inhibition increases.

Warmth continues on Memorial Day as temperatures climb into the 80s
during the afternoon. Another breezy day is expected with southerly
winds gusting 20-30mph. Similar to this weekend, a few scattered
thunderstorms may develop across portions of Nebraska. Details on
timing of any storm will become clearer as we get closer (likely
afternoon/evening).

Tuesday Onwards...

Troughing moves into the western U.S. on Tuesday and subsequently
stalls out, placing the area under southwesterly flow-weak ridging.
Near to above normal temperatures are expected, with highs generally
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This pattern also results in scattered,
off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR Ceilings possible through 20z, otherwise VFR conditions
expected during TAF period. SCT MVFR ceilings move out of the
area around 20z (first leaving KEAR). With SCT-BKN VFR ceilings
clearing this evening. Saturday morning, mid-high level clouds
build over the area and persist through the end of the TAF
period. Westerly winds gusting around 20kts decrease this
afternoon and become light and mainly westerly overnight. Around
sunrise on Saturday winds begin to shift to the south but remain
light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion