Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

070
FXUS63 KOAX 122312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday morning with a 30-40%
  chance from 3 to 10 AM. Additional storms are expected in the
  afternoon and evening, especially in southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa, where a few severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday with much
  uncertainty in the forecast details beyond Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features slightly northwesterly
flow across the CONUS, with a front draped across the Ohio River
Valley. Across central Colorado, a surface low is taking shape,
picking up the western end of the aforementioned front and
helping turn winds southerly to its east. Those southerlies are
gradually building into the forecast area this afternoon, with
generally quiet weather aside from some slight gustiness to
20-25 mph. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid-to-upper
80s, lingering some of those winds into the evening/overnight.

This evening, a cold front will continue its advance from the High
Plains into northeast Nebraska, stalling out a bit overnight as the
low-level jet ramps upwards. Working in tandem with the increasing
jet, the surface low will work to transport moisture most
efficiently closer to its location -- from central Kansas into
central Nebraska. Convergence along the northern end of that jet
will work to initiate weaker shower activity across central Nebraska
that will carry into northeast Nebraska. Since the extended runs of
the CAMs yesterday, the 16z HRRR has the nose low-level jet placed
about 80 miles to the northwest, shifting much of that activity
that is expected to occur closer to 4 AM onwards closer to the
NE/SD border locally.

Nailing down this activity will be the key for identifying how much
of eastern Nebraska and Iowa will see storms, in addition to
the ceiling that those storms will eventually have.

The nuts and bolts of tomorrow afternoon and evening are all
revolving around a southeasterly-shifting baroclinic zone, where
sufficient shear and instability exist for supercells. Bulk shear
vectors will largely be in-line with the frontal surface, making
upscale growth quick. Considerable uncertainty regarding the morning
convection, specifically as to how long it lingers over
northeast/eastern Nebraska. One scenario would be for convection to
fester across the eastern portion of the state, keeping cloud debris
into the morning hours that would limit the potential
destabilization, shunting the severe environment to the
southeast -- well southeast of Interstate 80. The other scenario
limits the amount of storm activity during the morning hours,
allowing full destabilization and initiation along the frontal
boundary near to just northeast of Interstate 80. Either
scenario brings potential for all hazards, going from initially
discrete storms to larger MCS structures as things grow together
and to the southeast. By 8 PM, storm activity will have pushed
to the southeast of the area, leaving us with cooler northerly
winds that take us into next week.

Sunday and Beyond:

Sunday through the work week starts us out cooler but gradually
warms us back into feeling like summer (mid/upper 80s). As the
temperatures warm back up, so too will return increasing chances for
strong to severe weather convection develops across the southern
periphery of the upper-level jet streak.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to largely prevail through the TAF
period. Southerly winds will continue into tonight as a low-
level jet develops over portions of the area. This may result in
LLWS at OFK and OMA early Saturday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated on the leading edge of this jet
over portions of Northeast Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance
has thunderstorms in the vicinity of OFK before quickly lifting
north. OMA and LNK are not expected to see any impacts currently.
A cold front will begin to sag south through the area Saturday
afternoon. Winds will shift towards the west then north along
and behind this front, eventually becoming gusty. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the
front. Currently, the bulk of any thunderstorms is expected to
be focused south of OMA and LNK. If thunderstorms were to
develop near these terminals, it is most likely between 21-00Z.
That said, confidence in impacts is low at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

105
FXUS63 KGID 130005
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
705 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight. Widespread severe
  weather is unlikely, but some marginally severe hail cannot be
  ruled out.

- A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, and another
  round of isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon,
  mainly southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. A
  few storms could be strong to marginally severe.

- Next week starts off cool on Sunday, but the 90s return by
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle,
and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly
winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few
thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to
the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited
thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see
some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being
said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry
through sunrise Saturday.

On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push
through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be
~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas
will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid
afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing
near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely
southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones.
Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become
strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and
0-6km shear 30-40kt.

Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for
Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the
40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High
temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid
70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening
through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over
the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to
reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push
100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager
through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a
more active period again starting the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Gusty southerly winds will weaken through this evening, especially
after sunset. A SSW nocturnal low-level jet will develop and
intensify overnight, causing low-level wind shear between
6-12Z.

A cold front will move through the area, possibly initiating a
few thunderstorms that could impact both KEAR and KGRI between
7-11Z. This risk is illustrated in a PROB30 group due to the
lower confidence in location and coverage of these storms.
If any severe thunderstorms impact the terminals, some hail may
be possible. Additionally, some guidance is highlighting a
chance for low MVFR ceilings during and post cold front passage.
Because there is little model consensus with this phenomena,
these low clouds are illustrated as being scattered in the TAF.

Post cold frontal passage, northerly winds will increase in strength
into the afternoon, gusting up to 25 kts for both locations.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion