Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

365
FXUS63 KOAX 271852
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
152 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues today, with peak heat index values of
  105 to 118 degrees.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible overnight tonight
  into early Tuesday (20-30% chance).

- Temperatures settle back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
  Tuesday and Wednesday, with precipitation chances returning
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A broad upper-level ridge across the Rockies into the Great Plains
is leading to hot weather across the western half of the CONUS. This
combined with humidity from southerly flow advecting moisture in
from the Gulf with added agricultural contributions is leading to
the high heat/high humidity scenario from the last couple of days.
Good news is that the weak frontal boundary dropping south across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today will help to push off some
of the added moisture from the Gulf as well as advect in milder
temperatures starting tomorrow. Yes, today will be our last day of
extreme heat, at least for this stretch, with highs tomorrow back in
the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices back down below 100.

This afternoon we have a few pop-up showers and storms that have
developed along the front moving through mostly east of our Iowa
counties. These are occasionally clipping far eastern Shelby and
Pottawattamie Counties, though. Not expecting anything severe, but
worst case we could see 1-1.25 inch hail. The better chance for
storms to impact our area will be overnight into early Tuesday.
Storms from central Nebraska should be weakening and falling apart
as they move into eastern Nebraska leading to greater chances (20-
30%) over our far western counties, generally decreasing as you get
farther east. While these storms should be fairly weak, we could see
strong winds if any hold together into our area. Another scenario to
watch is the HRRR redevelops some scattered showers and storms along
the remnant boundary around 16-18Z Tuesday along and east of the
Missouri River. These again likely won`t be severe but could produce
some gusty winds.

Cloud cover will linger through Tuesday morning from the overnight
storms as well as any late-morning showers/storms. We should see
gradual clearing Tuesday afternoon into the evening allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday night
into early Wednesday we may see another chance (20%) for showers and
storms clipping our southeast Nebraska counties, but latest trends
keep this activity south and west of our area. Pattern stays fairly
stagnant into Wednesday, though a modest bump in humidity may be
observed as we see weak southerly flow move back in as the High over
the region starts to slide east.

Toward the end of the work week we see a more substantial cool-down
ahead as a trough moving out of the PacNW pushes east overtopping
the ridge. As this approaches, we`ll see a low pressure system
develop and track along the Nebraska-South Dakota state line
creating shower and storm chances late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This Low lingers until it gets picked up by the upper-
level wave Thursday afternoon, leading to a fairly rainy day on
Thursday into Thursday night. The National Blend of Models keeps
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday, likely due to
uncertainty in coverage of storms from differences in the track
timing/placement of the surface Low. Greater coverage of showers and
storms likely would lead to cooler highs than currently predicted.
In any case, cooler air out of central Canada will likely move in
behind this system for Friday going into the weekend for a better
reprieve from the heat.

While we see milder temperatures Friday into Saturday, we see the
ridge start to build back up to our west, looming... Temperatures
trend back upward Sunday into Monday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Mostly clear
skies this afternoon with a few high clouds coming in from the west.
A frontal boundary currently situated right around KLNK is dropping
south which led to the wind shift to northeasterly this morning.
Well see increasing higher clouds overnight tonight with a shift to
more northerly winds for a few hours before turning back east-
northeasterly around 11-14Z. Storms will approach eastern Nebraska
from the west after 06Z, but should be weakening and dissipating as
they move in. Confidence is low that storms will impact any single
terminal, but the best chance will be at KOFK (30%) around 08-10Z,
KLNK (20%) around 14-16Z, and KOMA (20%) around 16-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

422
FXUS63 KGID 271741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of intense heat and humidity, despite the arrival
  of a weak cool front. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for
  the entire forecast area given expectations for max heat
  indices of 105-115 degrees.

- There is a 30-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  this evening and overnight, highest W of the Tri-Cities. There
  is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for some of this activity to
  become severe. Main threat is damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Beyond today: although not truly "cool" by any means, more
  manageable/typical high temps mainly upper 80s-mid 90s look to
  prevail starting Tuesday...ending the need for any additional
  heat headlines.

- There will be occasional showers and thunderstorm chances
  Tuesday through Thursday night as a series of disturbances
  work around a strong upper ridge centered over the S Plains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Main forecast concern is once again the combination of intense
heat and humidity. While some of our W and NW counties may not
get quite as bad as this past weekend...we`re once again off to
a very warm start, and there really hasn`t been much of an air
mass change just yet. A weak cool front will move in from the NW
this morning, but guidance is in decent agreement that
temperatures behind this front will only be a few degrees
cooler. However, any practical sense of "cooling" with this
front will likely be offset by still high low level moisture
that often tends to "pool" along and behind these types of slow-
moving and weak fronts. Also, factor in that today will be the
third day in a row of intense heat, cumulative effects can still
cause impacts - thus the reason for the recent expansion of the
Excessive Heat Warning to include ALL of our forecast area.

Areas immediately along the front this afternoon...which looks
to run from around Lincoln to Superior to Hays...could
experience particularly "brutal" conditions given what should be
almost little to no wind. Winds will be breezy out of the S/SW
ahead of the front, and areas behind the front will see a shift
to 10-15 MPH NErly winds...but along the front winds will be
variable and quite light. As such, WBGT values in these areas
are expected to reach levels in which NO strenuous outdoor
activities in direct sunlight are advised.

One last thing to note on today`s heat/humidity...most models,
even short-term hi-res CAMs...have really struggled with the
amount of evapotranspiration coming off of the crops, but also even
the ambient air temperatures, as well. This may very well
happen again today. Bottom line...we want to emphasize that
today is not one to let your guard down despite what you may see
as "cooler" temperatures on quick glance on a phone app.

As for thunderstorm chances...appears we`re still on track for
at least somewhat better rain chances this evening and
overnight, roughly 30-60% compared to the 20-30% last evening.
Generally expect initial development to occur off to our W along
the Front Range/High Plains this afternoon, then gradually
shift E/SE this evening and overnight. The overall magnitude of
intensity and coverage remains a bit uncertain given rather weak
forcing aloft and still relatively warm mid level temperatures
(700mb temps ~17-18C!). IF activity off to our W can develop
some sort of organization and mesoscale lift (cool pool, MCV,
etc.) then there obviously would be plenty of moisture and
instability for this activity to work with in our area. Timing
and lack of substantial deep layer shear suggests a limited
severe threat that`s likely tied to localized damaging wind
gust potential. The latest SPC convective outlook covers nearly
the entire forecast area with a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
this potential. Finally...while widespread hydro issues are NOT
expected given recent dry, hot weather...some of the heavier
cores tonight could be rather efficient at producing heavy rain
rates of 1-2"/hr. If these occur over relatively urban or flash
flood prone locations, then some brief issues can`t be ruled
out. Highest chances for rain will be over our W third (roughly
along/W of Hwy 183), with gradually decreasing chances with time
tonight further E.

Should actually experience some more substantial/noticeable
heat/humidity relief for Tuesday...though really only back to
"seasonable" levels with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on
Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact
on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture
behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the
northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the
low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an
influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and
cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north
central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to
106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above
110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across
this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect
until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above
mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so
those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska
counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of
reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly
high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties
may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday.
Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to
range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across
the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and
night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The
highest chances will be across western portions of the area
(mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may
become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around
60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move
eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the
upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area.
High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end
of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various
rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night
as upper disturbances move over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are currently forecast...with the majority of
this TAF period expected to be dry. Main timeframe of concern
for these potentially scattered showers/storms looks to be after
midnight, currently carrying at PROB30 group in the 08-13Z
period...some models suggest at least isolated activity could
creep into the area a little earlier than that, so confidence in
the timing isn`t overly high. Kept the PROB30 group VFR at this
point, but if a stronger/heavier storm happens to move over the
terminal areas, a brief reduction in ceiling/visibility will be
possible. Winds remain northeasterly the rest of today, can`t
rule out an occasional gust near 20 MPH this afternoon. More
variable winds will be possible later this
evening/tonight...again especially if a stronger storm moves
through, a higher gust will be possible. For the latter portion
of this period after sunrise, winds look to be more easterly.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion