Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

788
FXUS63 KOAX 091034
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
434 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief warmup is expected into Tuesday, with highs warming
  into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

- Strong winds likely (80%) Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

- Snow chances late Wednesday into Thursday (20-30%), followed
  by a return of colder temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The upper pattern has changed very little this week and is
expected to remain much the same over the next seven days. A
standing wave`s ridge axis has set up along the West Coast with
northwest flow over the High Plains streaking toward the
eastern CONUS`s general trofing.

At the surface, we continue to experience a wide range of temps
with mid 30s across most of Nebraska and mid-20s across eastern
Iowa where the warm front has yet to pass. Westerly winds of
only about 5 knots are trying to scour out the arctic air in
place over the Corn Belt. It`s tedious work. Valley`s low of 20F
on Monday was set at 12:14am. It took persistent southwesterly
winds and most of twenty-four hours to drive temps up to 33
degrees by 11:56pm... which was the day`s zenith. The drier
westerly flow should be enough to preclude widespread fog,
hopefully holding it off for all but sheltered low-lying spots.

Temps will continue to improve today with the a mix of sun and
clouds and continued westerly flow. MaxT`s should range from
near 40 in the Harlan, IA area to just shy of 60 at Fairbury, NE
and Jefferson County. The warm temps are usually welcomed this
time of year, but they`re especially appreciated with the strong
winds anticipated overnight. The sun and seasonal and super-
seasonal temperatures should put a nice crust on any remaining
snowfall and prevent blowing and lofting of snow cover.

.TONIGHT...

A shortwave zipping through the quick H5 flow brings likely PoPs
to Minnesota, the Dakotas, and parts of central and eastern
Iowa. Biggest impacts for this forecast area will be associated
with the attendant cold front. NBM continues to struggle with
the wind speeds. Believe the CAA associated with the front won`t
have trouble busting up the progged shallow inversion and should
mix to almost 5kft. Mean values of momentum transfer suggest
gust speeds of 50 mph in northeast Nebraska with some guidance
pushing well over 60 mph. In collaboration with neighboring
offices, have issued wind advisory from 9pm tonight to 9am
Wednesday morning. Considered a high wind warning in far
northeast Nebraska, but it is borderline. Wouldn`t be surprised
to see the day shift upgrade that advisory when we see the
whites of the wind`s eyes. The advisory may be a bit too long
as confidence is best in the heart of the period when the CAA
is maximized and the shortwave axis passes through the area. I
woulnd`t be surprised if the winds tapered quickly Wednesday
morning with the redevelopment of the surface temp inversion.
This could happen before the sun comes up... ending those winds
`prematurely`.

Have also added a 10-15% chance of post-frontal sprinkles this
evening. They won`t last long enough to see them turn to snow.
Eventually, though, we will fall into the twenties and low 30s.

.THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Temps will be notably cooler on Wednesday (30s) under the
continued northwesterly upper (and surface) flow. A 20-30%
chance of snow develops Wednesday night with the area in a
baroclinic zone and warm air trying to make inroads from the
west. Fewer ensemble members have been bringing snow this far
south with the past two global model runs. (PoPs peak in the
30%s now instead of the 40%s).

Current guidance keeps this upper pattern mostly unchanged
through the work week with occasionally sharp temperature
gradients draped directly across eastern Nebraska or at least
within an afternoon`s drive. This pattern leaves the forecast
with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. An undetected
wiggle in the jet stream or a stronger lee cyclone, etc could
have a 20 degree impact. The area could be subject to snow on
any of these days with this baroclinicity in the vicinity. Let`s
hope this pattern resolves itself in a clearer way. Nobody
likes an ambiguous forecast.

Right now, snow chances look best (15-25%) over the northern
tier of counties on Wednesday night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds remain light
out of the south and southwest through late Tuesday morning. A
passing low pressure system will push a cold front through the
region during Tuesday afternoon. A northwesterly wind shift is
expected with this front. Wind speeds begin to increase also
with gusts developing late in the period. LLWS may be of concern
heading into Tuesday evening with strong low-level winds above
weakening lower-level winds. This will be monitored for future
TAF forecasts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

655
FXUS63 KGID 091134
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
534 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very pleasant day is expected across the area with highs in
  the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- Gusty northwest winds arrive behind a cold front this evening/tonight,
  gusting 30-40mph. Gusts of 45-50mph can`t be ruled out north
  of Highway 92.

- Near normal on Wednesday (highs 40s), with a large spread in
  highs possible on Thursday (highs 40s to upper 60s).

- Seasonably cool this weekend with highs in the 20s to low 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 338 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Temperatures this morning are sitting in the upper 20s to upper 30s
under partly cloudy skies. Aloft the area is under northwesterly
flow, with the next shortwave/disturbance traversing through the
northern Rockies. A very pleasant day is in store for the area under
mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies. Similar to Monday, west-southwest
winds will favor downslope warming and result in temperatures on the
higher end of model guidance. Highs today will range from the mid
50s (northeast) to the mid 60s (southwest). Most areas reach
the 50s by noon! Winds will be breezy gusting 20-30mph,
strongest northwest of the Tri-Cities. Breezy winds and warm
temperatures could result in elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon west of Highway 183.

A cold front dives into the area this evening, with scattered
sprinkles/light rain possible along/behind the front. Winds quickly
ramp up behind the frontal passage, gusting 30-40+mph, strongest
along/north of Highway 92 where gusts of 45-50mph can`t be ruled
out. Gusty winds continue throughout the overnight hours. After
sunrise, winds gradually decrease as the pressure gradient lessens
over the area with gusts falling below 15mph by the afternoon. A
cooler but still seasonable day is expected on Wednesday as highs
climb into the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Roller coaster temperatures continue on Thursday as a
stationary/warm front lifts north across the area. There remains
some uncertainty on the exact position of the front, which will have
a large impact on Thursday`s highs. GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate
a 15-20 degree spread in high temperatures across
central/northeastern portions of the area due to the uncertainty on
the location of the front. Along/north of the front, highs will be
confined to the 40s. South/southwest of the front in the warm
sector, highs soar into the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s! Otherwise the
forecast remains on track, with much colder air pushing into the
area Thursday night/Friday, setting up for a cold weekend with highs
in the 20s to low 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Skies have cleared across the area, and westerly winds are
pushing temperatures into the 40s and 50s. This continues
tomorrow, with stronger westerly winds pushing temperatures
into the 50s and 60s across the area. The most intense winds are
expected to remain over western Nebraska and South Dakota, but
locally gusts could still reach the 30 MPH in many areas. Clouds
increase late Tuesday, but any precipitation associated with a
clipper system should remain safely to our north and east.

Northwesterly winds will increase as a cold front pushes through
the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Gusts around 40 MPH
will be possible in northern areas to start the day on
Wednesday, but will gradually diminish through the day.
Wednesday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass (but not
particularly cold by December standards). There is still a low
chance (20-30%) for light precip (mainly snow) in northern areas
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the trend has been
downward on global ensembles runs.

Another quick-moving upper-level shortwave brings another
opportunity for flurries or light snow to the area Thursday
night, but otherwise the forecast remains quiet and dry through
the weekend and into next week. In fact, The GEFS and EPS
ensembles indicate a 50-90% chance of seeing LESS than 0.10" of
QPF through the next 10 days.

The shortwave Thursday night will push some colder air into the
region for Friday through the weekend. Single digit lows and
high temperatures in the 20s are expected for much of the area
(a touch warmer in the south and southwest).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. West-southwest winds
increase during the mid-late morning hours. Sustained winds
around 15kts with gusts of 20-25kts are possible during the late
morning-early afternoon hours. Gusts calm slightly during the
late afternoon. A cold front moves through during the evening
hours, with gusty Northwest winds expected behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-25kts, gusting 30-35kts or more are
expected throughout much of the overnight hours. LLWS will also
develop as winds increase tonight, with winds of 45-55kts not
far from the surface (1000-2000ft).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion