Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

234
FXUS63 KOAX 060420
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1020 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms overspread the area into the morning hours
  today (70 to 90% chance). Storms may be strong with the main
  threat being large hail.

- More showers and storms develop Friday afternoon and evening
  (70 to 90% chance). There is a 5 to 15% chance for strong to
  severe storms, with all hazards possible. The main area of
  concern is along and southeast of a line from near Red Cloud
  to Fremont to Denison, IA

- Lingering precipitation late Friday night over northeast
  Nebraska could lead to a dusting of snow northwest of a line
  from Albion to Wayne, NE. A few areas could see light icing
  accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis shows a positively tilted H5 trof from
near Arizona toward Utah into Wyoming. East of the main feature, a
few shortwaves are observed tracking northeast into the forecast
area. Looking at the low levels, strong warm air advection and
moisture transport are starting to enter our southern areas this
evening. The belt of ascent and moisture evident from H7 to H8
coupled with speed convergence along the LLJ nose has already
resulted in showers and storms developing from near Platte toward
Lancaster counties as of 0245z. Expect to see showers and storms
blossom in coverage as we head into the evening hours.

Taking a look at forecast soundings, much of the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg
of CAPE for these storms remains rooted aloft near H8, which again
coincides where lift is. RAP model guidance suggests 1-6km bulk
shear remaining around 20 to 30kts which could limit the severe
potential with convection to some extent, particularly over our
northern areas. Regardless, should still see some threat for large
hailstones over the area with this elevated convection. PoPs
increase in coverage from south to north and remain high, at 70 to
90% from now through at least 17z. Should see a brief lull in
activity thereafter before more development occurs in the afternoon.

For the rest of Friday, will see the potent H5 trof finally track
east northeast toward the area, while the baroclinic zone at H8
races northeast. At the sfc, an area of low pressure will also track
northeast, with a cold front expected to cross much of OAX during
the daytime. Ahead of the front, a good portion of the forecast area
should see temperatures warm to the mid to upper 60s, and even see a
few spots reach 70F in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Our attention turns to the potential severe threat in store for the
area Friday afternoon. Latest forecast soundings suggest remaining
CIN largely eroding in the warm sector ahead of the front in the
afternoon hours. Deep layer shear of 45 to 60 kts in the warm sector
coupled with around 1500 J/kg of CAPE should lead to a convective
environment supportive of all hazards including large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two with any discrete features.
However, timing of the frontal feature will play a critical
role in determining the extent of any severe convection across
our forecast area.

Looking at the 00z suite of CAMs, they have pushed the location of
the front farther to the west compared to last nights 00z runs into
eastern Nebraska. CAMs like the HRRR and HiRes ARW ignite discrete
convection by 20-21z over our far southern service area, lifting
northeast throughout the evening, while the FV3 ignites discrete
storms farther west up into northeast Nebraska. The NAMNest and NSSL
WRF suggest convection quickly firing off along the cold front and
congealing into more of an MCS looking feature Friday evening. For
this forecast update, a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather
is in place for areas along and southeast of a line from near Red
Cloud to Fremont to Denison, IA, while an enhanced (level 3 of 5)
risk clips our far southeast including Falls City.

Far northeast Nebraska will likely see wintry conditions with the
band of light precip that lingers over the area from the deformation
zone of the low. Forecast soundings suggest precip could change from
rain to a wintry mix/freezing rain Friday evening, before changing
to all snow. This may lead to some slick spots in those areas, so
those with travel plans should keep an eye on the forecast. Snow
amounts are expected to be light, with areas along and northwest of
a line from Albion to Wayne having a 50 to 70% chance for a tenth of
an inch or more of snow. Probabilities significantly taper off for
a half inch or more and are confined across Knox and Cedar Counties.
PoPs remain high at 60 to 80% across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, overspreading much of the area by the evening before
tapering off by 10z or so Saturday morning.

Quiet weather is expected for Saturday with highs in the 50s for
most locations.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Dry conditions continue Sunday with highs warming to the 60s and
70s. Southwesterly flow returns for Monday with 60s and 70s
persisting across the area. Our next best chance for precip returns
Tuesday into Wednesday (20-40% chance). Highs for the rest of the
extended remain in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals for the start of
the TAF cycle. MVFR ceilings move in from south to north this
evening, eventually deteriorating to IFR/LIFR. Visibilities fall
too to MVFR/IFR within low stratus/fog. Above the stratus deck,
will see showers and thunderstorms overspread terminals after
04z from south to north. Storms may be strong to severe with
large hail the main threat. Showers linger through at least mid
morning, while ceilings and visibilities improve to at least
MVFR by mid morning.

Lingering breeziness subsides tonight with southeasterly winds
prevailing. Will see a low level jet lead to LLWS over KLNK
overnight. Breezy southerly winds of 20 to 25kts overspread the
area by 18z, switching northwesterly as a front moves through.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

177
FXUS63 KGID 060104
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
704 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are possible overnight into the first part
  of Friday daytime morning, mainly within counties east of
  Highway 281 and also counties along/north of I-80. A few
  strong to marginally-severe storms with hail up to around
  quarter size cannot be ruled out.

- The majority of our forecast area (CWA) will not see storms
  overnight-Fri AM, but there will likely be fairly widespread
  drizzle and fog. Fog could even become dense (visibility 1/4
  mile) for at least a few hours in any given place (generally
  earlier in the night south/later in the night north).

- The timing of the cold frontal passage on Friday has slowed
  slightly, likely putting a bit more of our east-southeastern
  CWA under a strong to severe thunderstorm threat for the
  afternoon-early evening (mainly 8-3 PM). However, on a
  positive note, most of this activity should be slightly post-
  frontal/elevated...with hail and perhaps a few severe wind
  gusts the main threats (very little if any tornado threat).

- On the backside of the system, mainly the northwest 1/3 of our
  CWA (mainly NW of a Beaver City-Kearney-Fullerton line) could
  see a quick hit of wind-blown snow Friday evening (mainly 6
 PM-2 AM). However, accumulation appears rather minimal (mainly
  around half inch or less).

- Dry weather prevails at least Saturady-Monday with warming
  temperatures (highs well into the 60s and/or 70s Sunday-
  Monday)

- Most of Tuesday-Thursday currently looks mainly dry too, but
  we currently carry some lower-confidence precip chances mainly
  Tues-Tues night. Seasonably-mild temps continue with highs
  mainly 50s-60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with
the leading edge of the trough over the central Plains. A lee
surface trough is across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado.
Breezy south to southeast winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area are
currently in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tonight are expected
to range from the mid 30s to mid 50s. The upper level trough will
move closer to the region tonight with upper lift increasing
overhead. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of
Nebraska and Kansas tonight. Initial thunderstorm development is
expected to be this evening but will mainly be south and east of the
forecast area. Additional development may occur across northern
portions (mainly north of the Tri-Cities) of the forecast area late
tonight. Storms may become strong to severe tonight, especially
south and east of the area with better instability present. Hail up
to the size of quarters is possible tonight mainly east of Highway
281. Fog will again be possible (60% to 70% chance) tonight but is
not expected to be quite as dense or widespread as this morning.

The upper trough will begin to move over the northern and central
Plains on Friday with a cold front pushing into the area. There is
still uncertainty in regards to the timing of this front and amount
of heating in advance of the front. These uncertainties have
resulted in a wide range of possible high temperatures for Friday
across the forecast area. High temperatures across northern portions
may only be in the 40s with southern portions possibly in the 70s.
There is a threat of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening
mainly along and east of Highway 281. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats. Snow is also possible beginning late
Friday afternoon and continuing through Friday night across most of
south central and central Nebraska and portions of north central
Kansas. There is uncertainty as to how much of the area will receive
snow due to uncertainties in how long the precipitation will last
into Friday night as well as how fast temperatures will drop across
the area. There is fairly high confidence (around 70%) that areas
northwest of the Tri-Cities may experience at least a trace of snow.
Generally expect any snow accumulations to be a half inch or less.
Low temperatures in the 20s and low 30s are expected Friday night.

High temperatures Saturday will mainly be in the 50s with a surface
high nearby. Temperatures will be on a warming trend Sunday and
Monday with highs on Sunday in the 60s and 70s and highs on Monday
in the 70s. A cold front is expected around Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week with precipitation possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Another complex TAF period with a lot of "moving
parts"...including: 1) Prevailing sub-VFR ceiling with at least
a few-to-several hours of sub-VFR visibility...2) Likely several
hours of drizzle and/or fog...3) A pronounced wind shift from
south-southeasterly to northerly behind a strong cold front...4) At
least some potential for brief/passing heavier rain showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms (outside chance storms could
produce small hail).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Right out of the gate this evening, ceiling has rapidly dropped
to MVFR and will only continue to gradually lower...with IFR
onset likely by 04-05Z. Then, 06-12Z is expected to feature the
overall-worst aviation conditions of the period, as confidence
increases in at least LIFR ceiling/IFR visibility...and with
LIFR/VLIFR visibility in near-dense to dense fog also a distinct
possibility (currently included in TEMPO 08-12Z). While drizzle
will likely be steady much of this time, a brief heavier shower
or even a thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out (IF a
thunderstorms were to pass over, small hail is not out of the
question). While any shower/thunderstorm potential likely fades
by 12Z, steady drizzle could persist through at least 15Z along
with IFR/MVFR visibility and IFR/LIFR ceiling. Beyond 15Z,
confidence is high in a return to VFR visibility behind a
passing cold front, but at least MVFR ceiling will likely
persist through the rest of the day/period. Finally, the last
few hours of the period (21-00Z) could also bring a chance for
spotty rain showers/weak thunderstorms (currently depicted in a
PROB 30 group).

- Wind details:
Right away this evening, breezy southeasterly winds persist
(gusts at least 15-20KT). Later tonight, speeds will gradually
ease to sustained at-or-below 10KT. The lightest and most prone
to variable direction winds will then occur a few hours either
side of 12Z ahead of an approaching, well-defined cold front.
This front is expected to arrive at both KGRI/KEAR around 15Z,
with an abrupt switch to moderately-strong north-northwest
winds then persisting through the remainder of the day/period
(commonly sustained 15-20+KT/gusts 20-30KT).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion