Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

196
FXUS63 KOAX 021955
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 25% chance for light rain in far northeast Nebraska this
  afternoon. Widespread drizzle with some fog expected late
  tonight into Tuesday.

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through
  much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms late
  Thursday into Friday.

- Temperatures gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

18z RAP objective analysis reveals a weak H5 shortwave disturbance
tracking over the Dakotas into Nebraska. Looking at the low levels,
a belt of weak ascent driven by warm advection is also seen over
much of Nebraska into south central South Dakota where ongoing
showers are. These rain showers will gradually push east into
northeast Nebraska this afternoon into the evening resulting in PoPs
of 15 to 25%.

Aside from a few temporary breaks in the low stratus, largely
expecting the pesky stratus to linger over much of the area this
afternoon. This should help keep temperatures cooler today with
highs in the low to mid 40s forecast areawide. Southeast winds will
become light by the evening and overnight hours.

Late this evening, a more potent H5 shortwave now over Nevada is
progged to move east toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis ensues,
and while the main low tracks south and east away from the area,
broad isentropic lift and moisture transport seen from the 285K and
290K sfcs is observed over the forecast area. This should help set
the stage for a dreary, cloudy evening/overnight. BUFKIT forecast
soundings and RAP cross-sections show a saturated profile/area from
near the sfc to around H7 with weak omega of -5 ubars. Given
temperatures are expected to be above freezing, most areas should
see drizzle develop. Areas of fog may develop after 02z and
overspread the area into early Tuesday morning. The HREF
probabilities of 1/2 mile vis suggest a 40 to 60% chance of
occurrence mainly west of a line from near Norfolk to Wahoo to Falls
City. Cloud cover should largely help keep lows above freezing
limiting the threat of precipitation freezing at the sfc, and
forecast soundings would largely suggest profiles staying above
freezing. But, don`t be surprised if a few slick spots develop over
our far northern service areas. Lows were bumped up slightly for
tonight from NBM guidance to account for cloud cover. PoPs for
tonight into Tuesday morning overspread much of the area and remain
anywhere from 20 to 40% for drizzle. Lows tonight reach the mid 30s
for most areas.

Tuesday will see the continued cloudy weather with the potent
shortwave slowly approaching the Central Plains. This should help
provide an additional boost of lift resulting in an arching
band of rain showers developing primarily along and south of
Interstate 80 where better deep layer saturation occurs. For the
remaining areas, forecast soundings suggest the drizzle
potential continuing. PoPs of 40 to 60% are confined to areas
near the Nebraska/Kansas border from late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, while 20 to 30% PoPs exist from near Antelope
to Monona County.

Have cut back highs a tad on Tuesday given low level stratus likely
to linger across the area. However, most areas should still warm to
the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Tuesday cool to the upper 20s to mid
30s.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The showers and drizzle linger into Wednesday (20 to 40% chance),
gradually tapering off late Wednesday as the shortwave finally moves
away. Brief ridging behind the potent wave and southerly flow
Thursday results in a warm up, with highs forecast to reach the
upper 60s to low 70s areawide.

Late Thursday into Friday, model guidance develops a longwave trough
over the western CONUS, moving northeast throughout the period. The
potent wave induces lee cyclogenesis with a sfc low developing and
tracking east northeast. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance
show considerable uncertainty with regard to the sfc low track and,
in general, the placement of mid level features. At this time, PoPs
of 60 to 80% overspread much of the area starting late Thursday into
Friday. Don`t be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder with
this activity. While still several days away, a few forecast
soundings suggest around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 0-6km bulk shear
of 50kts. At this time, SPC currently outlines portions of far
southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa in the day 5 (Friday)
convective outlook.

Highs Friday warm to the upper 60s to low 70s, before cooling to the
50s Saturday and 60s Sunday. NBM currently indicates dry
conditions for the area Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Satellite imagery shows low level stratus over terminals late
this morning. A few breaks in clouds are observed and have
resulted in predominately MVFR ceilings changing briefly to
VFR. However, by 00z, expect ceilings to deteriorate back to
MVFR over much of the area. Model guidance is in good agreement
that areas of drizzle/fog will overspread terminals late tonight
and persist into tomorrow morning, resulting in IFR to
potential LIFR ceilings. Have opted for IFR ceiling adjustments
with this issuance, and also adjusted arrival time of poor
visibilities till after 08z at KOFK and KOMA, while KLNK
arrival is earlier by 02z. The poor ceilings and visibilities
will persist through at least 16z.

Winds will remain under 12 kts at all terminals throughout the
TAF cycle from the southeast, switching northeast by the end of
the cycle.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

182
FXUS63 KGID 021749
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1149 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pesky light drizzle/freezing drizzle may still impact areas
  mainly east of Highway 281 this morning. With temperatures
  climbing to near freezing the past few hours, impacts from any
  drizzle are anticipated to be minimal.

- After a cloudy, but mostly dry afternoon, drizzle and
  widespread fog returns tonight. Temperatures should be warm
  enough that freezing drizzle will not be an issue, but dense
  fog looks like a real possibility.

- Wednesday afternoon-Thursday daytime should mainly be a dry
  break as we reside "in between" low pressure systems. After a
  few very "gloomy" days, sunshine and warmer temps will also
  return. High temps Thursday will top out in the 70s!

- Our next systems arrives Thursday night-Friday. This system
  should be warm enough for predominantly rain, with some signs
  of thunderstorm potential (especially Thurs night-Fri
  AM)...MAYBE even enough instability for some small hail.

- Next weekend currently looks mainly dry in the wake of the
  departing Friday system

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

An expansive area of low level stratus can be seen spreading
across the entire forecast area early this morning. So far
dense fog and freezing drizzle have been elusive, and
confidence of either is on the low side. That said, need to get
through around 9-10 AM to completely eliminate the potential as
temperatures climb solidly above freezing later this morning.
Looking at area road cams, no signs of any precip or dense fog
as of 3 AM, but if something were to develop, models indicate it
would be closer to sunrise, so we are not completely out of the
woods just yet. That said, model soundings look like they are
hanging onto a shallow dry layer that would eliminate
drizzle/fog formation, and current temp/dewpoint spreads suggest
this to be the case. So leaning against any significant impacts
this morning.

For today, clouds should lift some this afternoon, but gloomy
skies will remain, with ceilings expected to fall again this
evening as the sun angle goes down and continued moisture
advection from the southeast helps bring up dewpoints overnight.
With the increasing moisture and favorable southeasterly flow,
expect widespread fog formation overnight, with dense fog a
distinct possibility. Looking at SREF probs for fog near 100
percent Tuesday morning, would not be surprised to see a dense
fog advisory eventually being necessary.

As the next disturbance crosses the area Tuesday
afternoon/night, a better chance for some light showers and
precip accumulations looks possible across the area with 0.1" to
0.25" of total rainfall accumulation looking good for much of
the local area, especially for our south central Nebraska
counties. No significant changes to previous thinking beyond
Tuesday night to highlight this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
 COMMENTS:

- In terms of forecast changes worth mentioning:
1) High temps have trended down a bit Mon-Wed due to extensive
cloud cover/periodic drizzle.

2) Limited areas of "patchy fog" have been introduced to
tonight-Monday AM, and higher confidence "areas of fog" have
been introduced to Mon night-Tues AM. Cannot rule out at least
localized dense fog.

- As for "big picture comments", our weather over the next week
  appears to be coming into a little better focus versus 24
  hours ago, with our main/potential issues already covered in
  the Key Messages above. In addition to the aforementioned
  light freezing drizzle potential tonight-Monday AM and fog
  potential the next few nights, our next possible concern looks
  to be thunderstorm potential mainly Thurs night-Fri AM.
  Although too early to have much confidence in details, current
  model data suggests there could be enough elevated instability
  to support a few stronger storms with mainly a hail threat.
  Honestly, if this system slows down much at all from current
  projections, Friday afternoon could perhaps even feature a
  very early-season severe storm threat (as of right now this
  appears to mainly focus slightly to our east-southeast (as
  supported by latest NSSL ML Total Severe Probability
  guidance).

- One thing NOT currently in our Hazardous Weather Outlook
  (HWOGID), but at least bears watching is fire weather
  potential for Thursday. While the damp/drizzle conditions
  earlier in the week could ease the fire threat a little, finer
  fuels (grasses) will dry out quickly. Southerly gusts of 20+
  MPH currently appear probably for Thursday afternoon, but as
  of now relative humidity (RH) looks to remain well above our
  critical 20% threshold (albeit somewhat close in our far
  western zones).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
It`s been a fairly busy day around here, as the most aggressive
model solutions from the last couple of days ended up being
"most right" about the concentrated batch of mixed wintry precip
(primarily a sleet/snow mix with perhaps a touch of freezing
rain) that started off in very light/non-impactful fashion
across much of our western/northern CWA this morning, but then
really "took off" within especially our southeastern quadrant
this afternoon. Based on 511 road reports, there is fairly
widespread coverage of partially-to-completely covered roads
with either ice/slush/snow within much of the Advisory area.
Speaking of which, earlier this morning we ended up issuing a
formal Winter Weather Advisory initially for 7 of our
southeastern-most counties, but then earlier this afternoon
tacked on Clay/Fillmore counties as the northern fringes of
steady precip also got into those counties as well. Thanks to a
tongue of weak elevated instability nosing northward into our
southeast CWA, especially some of our KS counties also
experienced several lightning strikes from non-severe storms.
SIDE NOTE: on top of all the actual WEATHER going on...a 4.1
magnitude earthquake (fairly strong for our area) occurred in
Webster County around 1 PM! (see USGS website for more details).

Back to weather: In the big picture of the mid-upper levels,
water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
the low amplitude/quick moving shortwave trough traversing the
Central Plains that sparked our round of wintry precip. At the
surface (and as so often occurs in these setups), persistent
easterly breezes (mainly sustained 10-15 MPH with slightly
higher gusts), along with extensive cloud cover over most of our
CWA, has helped hold temps a bit below forecast values (most of
our CWA on track to top out no warmer than 30-35. However, more
sun has broken out especially over the western 1/4th of our CWA
to boost things into the upper 30s-low 40s.


- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Although the Winter Weather Advisory in our southeast officially
runs until 6 PM, latest radar data/short term model trends
strongly suggest that things are moving out pretty steadily
(most lingering precip now confined to Jewell/Thayer counties),
and will probably cancel most counties once this discussion is
completed. Any lingering/steadier precip should vacate even our
extreme east-southeast edges no later than 5-6 PM.


- LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
As the night wears on, light east-southeasterly breezes and
moist/upslope low level flow will allow low stratus to persist
and or/move into essentially our entire forecast area (probably
arriving to far western zones last). While not expected to be a
"major deal", an analysis of low-level cloud thickness/relative
humidity via RAP model suggests that very light freezing drizzle
could develop mainly post-midnight and mainly within counties
along/east of Highway 281 (farther west, moisture depth is less
supportive of freezing drizzle). Right now, freezing drizzle is
only considered a POSSIBILITY (not a "sure thing") and thus no
formal Advisories are in effect, but this will need monitored
closely. Otherwise, at least patchy areas of fog are looking
possible overnight, with latest HRRR painting the greatest fog
potential within counties along/south of I-80. Sometimes models
"over-do" fog under low stratus, but with today`s precipitation
and light breezes, it cannot be ruled out (including the
possibility of localized dense fog). Low temps tonight are aimed
upper 20s most areas (clouds holding up reading from falling
far), except colder low 20s far west/north where the night will
start off clearest.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
For the morning hours, we will see a continuation of at least
patchy fog potential (mainly counties along/south of I-80, along
with the aforementioned potential for light freezing drizzle
mainly along/east of Hwy 281. Fortunately, by 10 AM temperatures
should warm above freezing, turning any freezing drizzle to
plain/non-freezing drizzle. For the afternoon, while some very
patchy/lingering drizzle cannot be ruled out, opted to actually
carry a dry forecast as it should mainly just be a very
cloudy/cool and somewhat breezy day with sustained southeast
winds 10-15 MPH/gusts up to 15-25 MPH). Given the expectation of
extensive low clouds, high temps were nudged down a few
degrees..most areas now aimed 41-45...except upper 40s possible
extreme west (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas).

Monday night, the potential for more widespread (mainly NON-
freezing) drizzle and areas of fog (possibly some dense) really
ramps up as the low-level further saturate in the presence of
light east-southeasterly breezes. Although actual rain amounts
will not be significant (drizzle rarely is), our official precip
chances (PoPs) are also likely not nearly high enough to convey
the very high probability of drizzle. Low temps mainly 33-39
degrees (slightly above freezing), but far north/northwest
counties COULD drop just below freezing so light freezing
drizzle potential will need monitored.


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
Although we could end up getting some steadier showers as a mid
level shortwave trough passes overhead (especially Tues evening-
overnight), precip type for especially most of the daytime hours
should continue as steady/widespread drizzle...with areas of fog
likely lasting until at least Noon as well. As was the case for
Monday, high temps were nudged down slightly, now mainly mid-
upper 40s at most.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME:
The vast majority of our CWA will likely be dry for the vast
majority of these 36 hours, as we end up "in between" systems.
Our official forecast still carries some small rain chances
Wednesday daytime-evening, but latest NAM/GFS really lean toward
the dry side. Sunshine should also make a triumphant return
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with high temps responding
accordingly (highs mainly upper 50s-low 60s Wednesday and upper
60s-low 70s Thursday...possibly mid 70s southwest. As touched on
above, will have to watch for possible fire weather concerns as
southerly breezes pick up Thursday.


- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
Although far too early to "count on" any details, confidence is
at least growing in the overall timing/arrival of our next
upper system. Rain showers/some thunderstorms (MAYBE a few
strong?) appear likely mainly Thurs night-Fri AM, with a cold
front then charging through during the day Friday and in theory
shunting any Friday afternoon thunderstorm threat at least
slightly to our east-southeast. Our far northern/western zones
could flirt with catching some snow on the backside of this
system, but right now this MAINLY looks to focus at least
slightly north- through-west of our CWA. High temps Friday could
vary more than currently advertised depending on frontal
position, but are currently aimed from low-mid 50s north/west to
low-mid 60s south/southeast.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Although our official forecast technically clips some of our KS
counties with some very "iffy" slight rain chances, the latest
ECMWF/GFS strongly support our going dry forecast for at least
the vast majority of our CWA. High temps currently aimed near-60
Saturday and then warmer mid 60s-low 70s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant aviation impacts LIKELY through Tuesday AM due to
LIFR stratus and fog.

CIGs have been running a bit lower than expected - more IFR than
MVFR - so far today, which probably forbodes conditions for
tonight. As such, have moved up timing of LIFR CIGs to around
midnight, and this may still be a few hours too late. LIFR VSBYs
should follow within a few hours of the CIGs. Latest NBM progs
show 80-90%+ for IFR conditions for both GRI and EAR, and 60-70%
for LIFR conditions. This is pretty high for around here for a
large blend such as the NBM...so confidence for such bad
conditions is abnormally high. Winds will be SE to NE and on the
modest side at around 10kt, or less, through the period.

Mixing remains weak into Tuesday AM, so any improvement will be
slow and likely not until after 15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion