Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

239
FXUS63 KOAX 210530
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1130 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong and gusty northwesterly winds (35-45+kts) and low
  relative humidity values (25-35%) have resulted in an
  extreme fire danger across the area through the remainder of
  today.

- High temperatures will slowly warm into the weekend.

- A cold front will move across the area on Sunday bringing
  highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s and lows in the teens and
  low 20s early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Remainder of Today and Tonight:

The remnant of a strong low-pressure system (current central
pressure of 997-mb) in southern Manitoba has been slowly
drifting to the south-southeast today. This system has worked to
tighten the pressure gradient across the area resulting in
strong, gusty, northwesterly winds. Gusts have regularly been in
the 35-45+kt range thus far today. Strong gusts are expected to
continue through the afternoon with the strongest gusts being
seen in areas with no cloud cover as the PBL has become deeper
with radiational heating and stronger winds from aloft are able
to mix down to the surface.

Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s and dew points in the 10s
across the area has resulted in relative humidities around
25-35%. This combined with the strong winds has created an
extreme fire danger that will persist through the afternoon.
Despite all of the precipitation seen across the area earlier
this week, fuels remain quite dry. A red flag warning is in
effect through 23Z today.

Winds will diminish a bit after sunset this evening, however,
gusts will remain in the 25-30+kt range overnight tonight as
the tight pressure gradient remains across the area. Strong
northwesterly flow will result in temperatures falling into the
mid-to-upper 20s across the area tonight.

Thursday through Saturday:

The low-pressure system will push off to the east tomorrow as an
upper-level ridge and surface high work into the area. Winds
will calm down through the morning hours as the pressure
gradient eases. Temperatures will remain chilly with highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s. High temperatures will steadily
climb into the weekend beneath the upper-level ridging with
highs in the low-to-mid 50s across the area on Saturday. Flow
becomes more zonal late Saturday into Sunday.

Sunday through Wednesday:

A shortwave is expected to eject into southern Canada and the
northern Plains Sunday morning resulting in cyclogenesis. A cold
front will advance across the area on Sunday bringing cooler
temperatures into next week. Ensemble guidance shows lows
plunging into the teens and low-20s by Monday night with highs
in the mid-to- upper 30s. Cold air will remain in place through
at least midweek next week. Ensemble guidance is showing signs
of some precipitation, which could fall as snow, midweek next
week, however, confidence is low (15-25%) in the occurrence at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Expect gusty northwest winds to continue through the overnight
hours. Gusts are expected to 30 knots through the evening and
should gradually diminish through tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers/Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Pearson

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

072
FXUS63 KGID 210526
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1126 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry weather is expected through the weekend with fairly
 seasonable highs in the 40s and 50s.

-A decrease in temperatures Monday-Wednesday is currently
 expected to limit high temps to the mid 30s-lower 40s (not
 OVERLY-cold, but something we are definitely not used to).

-A gradually-increasing signal for the area`s first seasonal
 snowfall has begun to appear on the horizon mainly at the day
 7-10 range. Still TONS of uncertainty and is mostly just
 beyond our current 7-day forecast, but will need to keep a wary
 eye on Thanksgiving itself).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Tonight(Near-term)...

We pick up the forecast today with strong winds blowing out of the
west-northwest 15 to 30 MPH with gusts generally 35 to 50 MPH. The
strongest winds are concentrated to the north, especially north of I-
80 (A few locations have even gusted up to 50-58 MPH). We have
seemed to pass over our peak gusts for the day as winds are now
on the downward trend and expected to sharply drop off over the
next few hours.

The strong winds mixed with lower relative humidity values (15-25%)
prompted the out-of-caution Red Flag Warning (RFW) across all of our
Nebraska counties Today through 6 PM. Though the recent rain
event earlier this week deposited between 0.5 to 2 inches
areawide with some signs of moisture retention in the soils and
relatively cooler temperatures (mid 40s to low 50s), the
heightened winds with the isolated possibility of a breakout
fast spreading fire warranted a precautionary RFW.

These strong winds have been partially powered from the strong
pressure gradient caused partly from the occluded cyclone, which
previously took a trip through the area on Monday. This low presure
center is now hovering just north of Minnesota and will be on its way
towards the Northeast U.S.


Thursday through Saturday (Short-term)...

A cold front currently situated over the north central and east
portions of Nebraska, is expected to eventually drop on down through
the night, setting up the scenario for overnight lows to drop to
their coldest point so far this Season (low to mid 20s). Wind chills
Thursday morning will reach into the teens for a majority of the
area and even closer to the single digits in our furthest northern
extent (near Valley county).

The continuation of northwest flow Thursday will allow the cold air
advection pattern to retain. These low-level winds will help serve
highs in the low 40s (northeast areas) to low 50s (southwest areas).
A sliver of higher pressure will nudge in behind the cold front
contributing to calmer winds and generally quiet weather. The
pattern aloft will support mid-level sinking air from the onset of a
ridge, keeping skies clear and dry.

The northwest flow at the surface will finally reach its end Friday
when surface pressure falls near the east side of the Rockies, will
begin to overpower the Northeast U.S. bound low, the system that has
been controlling winds since Monday. Southerly flow will begin to
establish a weak warm air advection pattern. As a result, the highs
will build through Saturday back into the lower to mid 50s.


Sunday and Beyond (Long-term)...

Zonal upper level flow is expected to ride out through the first half
of next week. Though there is a small chance (30-40%) for a weak
shortwave trough to emerge out of the zonal flow, potentially
adding some complexion to the forecast, a general disagreement from
the longer range forecast models revolves around its location and
magnitude. This uncertainty keeps the precipitation potential low.
The element that has become more clear is with the expected drop in
temperatures starting Monday that could limit highs to the mid 30s
to lower 40s.

This expected drop in temperature will likely be caused from a north
orienting wind field on the backside of a weak passing cyclone
Sunday. The next best chance (10-20%) for precipitation and
POTENTIALLY the first snowfall of the Season could come on
Wednesday. With this event being 7 days out and with low confidence
of the placement of the synoptic level driving forces, the PoPs
remain low. It is important to note that a stronger signal 7-10 days
out in long range model guidance suggest that signs of snow could be
getting closer to finally becoming a reality.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VRF conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will continue
through 11z. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts will continue
through the daytime hours on Thursday, becoming light and
variable around sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion