Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

851
FXUS63 KOAX 041803
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
103 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms this evening, and if
  they develop, they could produce locally damaging winds and
  heavy rainfall.

- Quieter weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs
  in the upper 80s and low 90s.

- Storm chances return Wednesday and continue through the end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Locations south of a line from Columbus to Tekamah got a free
natural fireworks display early this morning as a handful of strong
storms popped-off over southeast Nebraska and into southwest Iowa.
While storms continued to weaken and gradually dissipate
through the morning, remaining cloud cover liberated us from
excessive heat. By noon, most locations had reached the mid and
upper 70s.

Although the atmosphere is fairly worked over across the southern
half of the CWA, decreasing cloud cover will allow instability to
boom across northeast Nebraska. Current mesoanalysis has a
couple thousand J/kg already over northeast Nebraska, with
lapse rates steepening. However, the flags on our shear vectors
remain modest at around 20 kts or less. A shortwave disturbance
will ripple out of the purple mountain majesties to our west
and soar through the Central Plains this evening and overnight,
sparking off another round of storms over north-central
Nebraska. Weak shear makes it unlikely that anyone will be
hailed upon, especially after the twilight`s last gleaming.
While initial gusty winds could blow down a few amber waves of
grain, most should remain steadfast as storms weaken with
southeastward progression. Overall it looks like locations along
and northwest of a line from Omaha to Lincoln could see a
strong storm or two between 7 PM and midnight, but storms should
weaken by the time they reach the ramparts of the I-80
corridor. The overnight hours should should be free of any red
glaring radar returns by midnight.

Sunday and Beyond...

Ridging will build over the desert southwest, bringing drier
conditions back to the fruited plains Sunday, Monday, and into
Tuesday. A few shortwaves will bring back storm chances
Wednesday into Thursday, with another system grilling us on
Friday. In the meantime, sunscreen will be a must to prevent
folks from getting too Red during outside activities under the
sunny skies. While temperatures won`t be quite as White hot as a
week ago, we will still see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
through the upcoming week. But if the heat has you feeling Blue,
don`t worry. In this part of America the weather changes faster
than you can say "USA".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period. A
few showers and storms could bubble up this afternoon, with a
better chance (15-30%) for a strong storm or 2 to roll through
this evening. The main threats would be strong winds up to 40-60
mph and heavy rainfall. Large hail appears unlikely at this
time. Winds will be variable at times, but eventually become
easterly this evening and overnight, remaining under 12 kts
outside of thunderstorms. Some patchy fog may develop overnight,
especially in low lying areas and locations that received
recent heavy rainfall.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

228
FXUS63 KGID 041730
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most of the daytime will be dry this Independence Day.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms return from the
  north/northwest this evening. Some could be marginally
  severe.

- The early part of next week should remain mostly dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

As of 1am, more robust convection continues to redevelop over
northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. This activity is expected
to push eastward through the early morning. This is expected to
primarily impact areas near and south of the KS/NE state line,
but isolated storms cannot be ruled out further north as well.
Hail will be the primary threat with these storms, although
locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out either. Near-term
models show this activity weakening and departing the area by
around 8-9am at the latest, and the rest of the daytime should
remain dry.

This afternoon, the strongest thunderstorms should redevelop
safely to our southeast, but additional storms are also
anticipated to develop over the Sandhills and gradually move
southeastward through the evening hours. There isn`t great
consensus amongst the CAMs on coverage/timing, but I would
anticipate at least a few storms to contend with for fireworks
displays this evening. Shear is a bit weaker than today, but
would still be supportive of at least a couple "low-end" severe
storms.

After today, the forecast dries out as we head into next week.
It will remain warm, but not excessively hot. Off and on
rain/t-storm chances return in days 4-7 (Tuesday night through
Friday). Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly
above normal during this period, but longer-range ensembles are
hinting at the potential for extreme heat returning for next
weekend and into the early part of the following week (July
11-14).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

I have focused on the nearest 24-48 hours and thus the majority
of this discussion will focus on that period.

This evening and overnight hours has multiple rounds of
thunderstorm activity, I will go into the expectations of each
one.

Round 1: This evening 5 PM - 11 PM
This area is what we are watching now, primarily development is
expected along the Hwy 30/Platte River Corridor between Grand
Island and Columbus, NE. Between 1 PM and 2 PM cloud cover,
cumulus has grown in areal extent. The vertical nature of this
cumulus is still relatively shallow, but the area shows where
there is more instability. This area southward along Highway 81
will be will be the favored area for development between 5-7 PM.
This activity could be severe and is highlighted by the SPC
enhanced risk, and expect a convective watch at some point in
time. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls are
the primary threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out, and
flooding, especially for areas that receive multiple later
rounds is a threat.

This activity is expected to track south and east into
eastern/southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas as we
move towards sunset and beyond.

Round 2: Tonight midnight - 4 AM
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the nose of the Low
Level Jet with thunderstorms developing along an east-west line
following roughly Interstate 80. There is some question exactly
where this activity will develop, but anywhere along and south
of I-80 is in the region for being impacted by these
thunderstorms. Some of this activity could be severe.

This activity is expected to track southeast with time.
Meanwhile Round 3 will be starting off....

Round 3: Tonight 3 AM - Saturday mid-morning
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of
northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska and track slowly
east during the overnight and early morning hours. This activity
is expected to be similar to what we saw this morning, with weak
showers/thunderstorms. Severe storms are not anticipated.

How will these storms impact Saturday July 4th?
All of these rounds of thunderstorms today will impact how the
chance for thunderstorms develops Saturday. The morning
thunderstorms will push the potential for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms southward into central and southern/eastern
Kansas. While we cannot rule out some of the afternoon storms
impacting Rooks, Mitchell, and Osborne counties, as of this
forecast it`s looking optimistic.
For the areas that are impacted by Round 3, once it stops
raining and clears out, it is expected to be a dry and sunny
day. For everyone else, it looks to be a dry and sunny day.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of
the Nebraska Panhandle, and they are expected to track southeast
with time, similar to the track seen last week. This could
impact north central Kansas counties in the late evening and
early overnight hours.
Overall the picture for tomorrow for north central Kansas will
become more clear tomorrow morning after all of these rounds of
thunderstorms.

Highs on the 4th are currently forecasted to be in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

After the 4th...
The end of the weekend and start of the work-week look dry as
upper level ridging begins to build in from the southwest. It
doesn`t last overly long as some stronger disturbances break the
ridge down and precipitation chances return for the second half
of the work week. Temperatures will generally be seasonal with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

An outflow boundary moving northwestward across the area has
helped to develop what I expect to be a short period of MVFR
cumulus at KEAR, thus the Tempo group in the tafs. Cloud cover
near KGRI is moving southeastward away from the terminal, so
have kept them VFR. Largely expect VFR conditions throughout the
day today. Both terminals could be impacted by thunderstorms
this evening, but confidence is not high. Much of the high-res
model guidance indicates that thunderstorms could dissipate
before reaching the terminals. Thus have kept the Prob30 and not
included a prevailing or tempo group for thunderstorms this
evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion