Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

357
FXUS63 KOAX 232315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
615 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today is day one of a three day warming trend. Expect a return
  of the 80s tomorrow and Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening/tonight
  across northern Nebraska. Additional showers and isolated
  thunderstorms are expected Sunday.

- A shift in the pattern brings cooler temperatures and daily
  chances of showers/thunderstorm activity to the region
  beginning Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper low over Saskatchewan and
Manitoba and weak sfc high pressure over eastern Kansas and
Oklahoma. Satellite shows some clouds streaming in across the border
from Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.
Visible satellite imagery also shows an area of cumulus clouds
across north central Nebraska where surface analysis is showing a
moisture plume coming in from the southwest and an area of
convergence. MLCAPE values of maybe 500 J/kg and SBCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg are expected along with some decent lapse rates. A few showers
and maybe isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of
northeastern Nebraska this evening/tonight; however, a widespread
severe weather threat is not expected. Should a few stronger storms
develop, wind and some small hail would be the main concerns.

Heading into Sunday, the upper trough shifts east, centered over
northern Missouri and into Iowa during the morning. A weak shortwave
lifts northeastward into the region during the day. This may kick
off a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Models have been
pessimistic over the past few days over the storm potential.
However, a few are starting to pick up on the possibility of
something coming in along with a small plume of moisture advecting
in. Went with a blend of the NAMNest, SREF and ECMWF to put in some
low PoPs for Sunday to account for this potential. Confidence is
still low as to severe weather potential; however, if a strong storm
were to develop, the most likely concern would be hail.

Monday caps off a three-day warming trend with highs returning to
the mid to upper 80s for most locations. A few low 90s are not
entirely out of the question, particularly for northeastern
Nebraska.

Monday through the remainder of the forecast period, the pattern
shifts, giving the CWA daily chances for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The overall pattern has a ridge over the forecast
area Monday with an upper low over the Aleutians. The low is
expected to come ashore over the PACNW Monday night/Tuesday morning,
digging south into southern California by Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, several disturbances will filter through our area,
bringing chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Weak thunderstorms are moving into northeast Nebraska this
evening and should affect KOFK through about 8pm, although they
may linger longer in the area which would necessitate TAF
amendments. Lightning and cigs at FL100 are forecast.

Otherwise the forecast is dependent on winds, generally out of
the south at 5-10 knots overnight, they`ll pick up speed mid-
morning Sunday and be sustained near 15 knots with gusts of
20-25 knots on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

475
FXUS63 KGID 240007
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
707 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across
  the area between 5pm and 11pm. Severe weather is not expected,
  but small hail and wind gusts near 50 MPH may be possible with
  the strongest storms.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday evening. A few storms could become strong to severe
  with gusts near 60 MPH and hail up to the size of golf balls.

- There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms again Monday
  evening. Chances for thunderstorms then increase Wednesday
  through Friday. Some severe storms cannot be ruled out, but
  widespread or significant severe weather appears unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Diurnally-driven cumulus is bubbling over the western 2/3rds of
Nebraska and down into NW Kansas. This is expected to continue
to develop this afternoon and move across the area this evening
as high-based showers and thunderstorms. Currently, shear is
pretty lackluster, but is expected to increase into the evening
hours, which will potentially allow storms to coalesce into one
or more line segments. Instability falls off quickly into
central Nebraska/Kansas, therefore severe weather remains
unlikely. Nevertheless, these high-based showers/storms could
produce some gusty winds this evening (evidenced on HRRR gust
output) and perhaps some small hail in the strongest updrafts.

Sunday will trend noticably warmer than today as the upper
trough moves out of the northern Plains and we see stronger
southerly winds at the surface. Widespread highs in the 80s are
expected, with some locations in southwest parts of the area
making a run at 90 degrees. Thunderstorms are again expected to
develop and move west-east across the area in the late
afternoon and evening. But, unlike today, convective parameters
are more favorable for a few storms to become severe. MLCAPE on
the order of 1500-2000 J/kg combined with deep-layer shear of
30-35kt would support a severe hail threat, and possibly a few
severe wind gusts as well. Nearly the entire area is now in a
"Marginal" (level 1 of 5) severe risk area.

Overall, Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday, but the
thunderstorm potential is more uncertain and likely to be more
isolated. Therefore, SPC has not introduced a severe outlook.

A deep upper low is forecast to move into the western CONUS,
which will eventually bring more widespread rain/thunderstorm
chances to the area Wednesday-Saturday. Unfortunately, the
evolution of this system is rather uncertain and therefore
details on timing are hard to pin down at the moment. At this
time, the overall severe risk doesn`t look particularly
concerning, especially for late May The GEFS CSU-MLP severe
probs remain less than 5% each day through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
High confidence in VFR ceiling throughout the period and high
confidence in VFR visibility through at least the vast majority
of it. Except for perhaps during brief periods of passing
thunderstorms, any ceiling should remain well above 5K ft. AGL.

Above all else, the primary concerns are two completely
separate windows of opportunity for brief rounds of passing
showers/thunderstorms: 1) Right away this evening (covered by
PROB30 groups 00-02Z KEAR/01-03Z KGRI)...2) Very late in the
period Sunday afternoon (also PROB30 groups aimed 22-24Z
KEAR/23-24Z KGRI). If thunderstorms do manage to directly impact
either site, the primary concern will be brief wind gusts (most
likely out of the north and/or west) up to around 40KT, along
with perhaps a brief shot of heavy rain hail (this would be more
favored Sunday than this evening). Will be closely monitoring
the storms this evening for potential amendments to TEMPO or
prevailing groups.

Turning to winds (and aside from any brief, thundertorm-related
outflow enhancement), winds through much of this evening into
the first part of Sunday daytime should prevail sustained near-
to-below 10KT...and most commonly from a southerly direction. By
late Sunday morning and into the afternoon, speeds will pick up
out of the south-southwest, with several hours of sustained
speeds 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT.

On one final wind-related note, mainly between 7-12Z, there will
likely be "slightly strong" low level wind shear (LLWS), as
southwesterly winds increase to around 35KT within the lowest
1-2 K ft. AGL. However, overall magnitude of LLWS should peak
closer to 25KT than 30+KT...so it has not been included in TAFs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion