Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

734
FXUS63 KOAX 011928
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
128 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The main concern in the immediate forecast is the potential
  for snow, a wintry mix and freezing drizzle through Monday
  morning. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include a
  few more counties. Slick roads may be possible for the Monday
  morning commute.

- Another chance for precipitation and possibly a few rumbles of
  thunder Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The main concern in the immediate forecast period is the potential
for snow, a wintry mix and freezing drizzle impacting portions of
the CWA through Monday morning. Precipitation has begun moving into
the area from the west, currently impacting areas from Schuyler
(Colfax County) to Friend (Saline County). Light snow will be
possible this afternoon and evening. With the recent warmth and
ground temperatures being on the warmer side of things, initial
snowfall will not stick.

Temperatures are expected to fall later this afternoon, bringing the
potential for a light wintry mix, particularly for areas along the
Kansas/Nebraska border. Total accumulation amounts of snow and
wintry mix are expected to be between a trace and an inch, with most
areas under 1/2 inch. After midnight, we are continuing to see
signals in thermal profiles of a possibility of some freezing
drizzle developing in southern Nebraska. This potential and
forecasted ice accumulations from a light glaze to around a tenth of
an inch of ice prompted a westward expansion of the Winter Weather
Advisory. The advisory time is still the same, going into effect at
3pm this afternoon and continuing through 9am Monday, just with the
addition of Jefferson, Gage and Johnson counties. Areas that do pick
up the wintry mix and/or freezing drizzle could have some slick
surfaces which will impact the Monday morning commute. Thermal
profiles do hint at maybe a low possibility (20% or less) of
freezing drizzle for areas further north, toward the I-80 corridor;
however, that possibility is less certain. Drizzle/freezing drizzle
should end by around 15Z.

We will have a break in precipitation in the afternoon, with
possibly another round in the evening and overnight hours.
Temperatures will be warm enough where the expected p-type would be
rain for much of this second event.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, the focus will shift west to a
system coming over the Colorado Rockies. Southwest flow and some
warmer temperatures are expected for our area Tuesday. Highs will
reach the mid-40s to low 50s. By Tuesday evening, the disturbance
will be crossing the Rockies. One notable change in the models is a
slowing of the GFS solution, falling more in line with the ECMWF.
The trough has shifted slightly further north, resulting in a slight
increase in PoPs for Wednesday from what we had yesterday. Wednesday
afternoon, there is a chance for a few non-severe thunderstorms for
areas along and east of a line from the Omaha Metro to Syracuse and
Tecumseh.

Warmer temperatures are expected as southwest flow sets up over the
region toward the latter half of the week. Models are showing the
possibility of a late week/early weekend storm system potentially
impacting the area, although few other details are known at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions are currently ongoing at the terminal.
Ceilings are expected to drop by 02Z as stratus moves into the
region with the next storm system. A few light snow showers are
moving around the terminal but at this point in time, snow
chances are not great at KOFK. Conditions fall to MVFR after
midnight with winds becoming southerly. Freezing drizzle may
develop, particularly south of I-80, but we are not currently
thinking it will impact the terminal at this time.

KOMA: Ceilings have improved to VFR levels and are expected to
remain through around midnight. After midnight, ceilings are
expected to lower as stratus moves into the region. Some pockets
of light snow will fall across portions of the region this
afternoon/early evening, with better chances south of the
terminal. For now due to uncertainty, have opted to not put snow
in prevailing conditions. The best chance should anything make
it as far east as the terminal would be between 19Z and 23Z.
Overnight/early Monday morning, freezing drizzle is expected
south of I-80 with better chances toward the KS/NE border. There
is a small (20%) chance that a little freezing drizzle may occur
near KOMA, but confidence in this solution is low.

KLNK: VFR conditions continue at the terminal early in the
forecast period. Expect ceilings to lower as snow to the west of
the terminal pushes into the area. Have enough confidence in
snow impacting the terminal that a mention was made between 20Z
and 00Z. Chances will be non-zero after that time; however they
will be low. After midnight, there is a chance of freezing
drizzle toward the KS/NE border. There is a 20% chance of
freezing drizzle possibly developing near KLNK, but confidence
is low in this solution at this time, so it was not added to
prevailing conditions for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

048
FXUS63 KGID 011844
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix of snow and/or sleet could impact areas
  mainly southeast of the Tri-cities this afternoon. This could
  result in slippery road conditions across the impacted areas.

- Light freezing drizzle will be possible across areas primarily
  east of Highway 281 this evening through around noon Monday.
  This could lead to a light glaze of ice across impacted
  roadways, although any accumulation remains questionable.

- Light rain showers will impact much of the local area Tuesday,
  with an isolated thunderstorm possible during the evening and
  overnight hours. Precipitation totals of 0.10" to 0.25" are
  anticipated over this period.

- While a few showers may linger into Wednesday, much of the
  area will be dry as temperatures return to above normal
  levels. Temperatures will peak Thursday afternoon (widespread
  70s), which combined with breezy south winds may result in an
  elevated fire risk.

- Additional (small) chances for some light precip return to
  the local area Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SEVERAL SOUTHEAST
 COUNTIES:
More details forthcoming in main afternoon discussion, but in
collaboration with neighboring WFOs TOP/OAX, have opted to issue
a "medium confidence" Winter Weather Advisory officially in
effect Noon-6 PM today for 7 of our southeastern-most counties.
Precipitation type could range anywhere from snow...to
sleet...to freezing rain, and although any snow/sleet
accumulation should be less than 1 inch, and any icing only a
light glaze...obviously at least SOME slick spots could result.

Considered also including a few counties adjacent to the
Advisory (especially Fillmore), but latest consensus of various
models keeps main potential for impacts within counties
along/south of the KS border.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Lots of mid/high level cloud cover streamed across the local
area overnight with a bank of lower clouds creeping in from the
north and east early this morning. Temperatures so far have held
mostly in the middle 20s, and will likely struggle to climb
10-15 degrees across the area by this afternoon thanks to ample
cloud cover and continued easterly flow.

As temperatures climb to near freezing later today, expect a
weak upper level disturbance to help induce an area of light
precip as it crosses Kansas during the afternoon hours. While
models have gone back and forth on how far north this area of
light snow/sleet will extend, the latest runs once again heavily
favor southeastern portions of the area, and continued to
highlight a wintry mix of precip across this area later today.
While some slippery roads cannot be completely ruled out,
impacts are expected to remain low.

Behind this disturbance, models indicate drier air working in
aloft with a strong signal for some drizzle potential overnight
into Monday morning, which if realized, would be freezing
drizzle. This could result in a light glaze of ice across areas
mainly east of Highway 281 to start the day Monday, but
confidence is low enough to continue without a winter weather
advisory at this time given very spotty QPF in models. As
temperatures warm during the afternoon hours, any remaining
drizzle should not cause additional problems.

Additional showers, and possibly even a thunderstorm, will
impact the local area Tuesday/Tuesday night as the airmass
modifies, which should result in most locations receiving at
least a bit of liquid precip (0.10"-0.25") when all is said and
done. Temperatures will then return to above normal levels by
Wednesday afternoon, peaking on Thursday in the 70s!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
  COMMENTS:

- In terms of 7-day forecast changes since our previous (early-
  AM) issuance, they are mainly highlighted by:
1) precip chances (PoPs) have been lowered enough for most of
Wednesday-Thursday that our official forecast is now largely
dry.
2) Due in part to #1, high temps have trended up several
degrees for Wed-Thurs, but have also come up for Friday as well.


- Unfortunately, what has NOT changed is considerable/above-
  average FORECAST UNCERTAINY, both in the:
1) Shorter term: Both Sunday-Monday could feature pesky rounds
of light wintry precip...OR nothing much at all).

2) Longer term: Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show
widely varying solutions for Friday-Saturday, mainly due to big
timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper
trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50%
during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR
too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big
uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate
thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday and is dry
Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely
offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out
here!


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sat. March 7):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
Just to get this out there right off the top, it appears high
temps this afternoon are going to end up a good 5-10+ degrees
cooler than our initial early-AM forecast. Despite wall-to-wall
sunshine, the steady northeasterly breezes and weak low- level
cold air advection are clearly "winning out". As a result, highs
will only reach (at best) the upper 40s in our north...to low-
mid 50s central...to mainly upper 50s-low 60s in our south-
southwest (except warmest mid 60s mainly within
Furnas/Rooks/Osborne counties).

Speaking of these north-northeasterly breezes, if anything they
are slightly stronger than expected, with sustained speeds
commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH (localized higher). In the
big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite
imagery and short term model data confirms broad northwesterly
flow over our local Central Plains region, as we remain well
southwest of a shortwave trough passing through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
High confidence that it stays dry, with only increasing (and
mainly high level) clouds out ahead of the next low-amplitude
wave approaching from the west. There could be some lower
stratus cloud that invade mainly our northern counties between
midnight-sunrise, but this of lower probability than the more-
certain high cloud increase. At the surface, breezes will remain
steady out of the east-northeast (sustained 10-15 MPH with some
gusts up to around 20 MPH). As for low temps, the steady
breezes/increasing clouds ensure that readings will not "tank",
but due in part to today ending up cooler-than-forecast,
certainly did not want to warm up lows much. As a result, kept
them fairly close to previous forecast, with mainly low 20s
Nebraska and mid-upper 20s Kansas (along with Furnas County
area).


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (possible round of snow/sleet?):
Even at we get closer to "zero hour", Sunday`s forecast honestly
remains a legitimate "pain". For example, while the latest ECMWF
has trended all but dry, various higher-res models
(HRRR/NAMNest) and even the recent 18Z NAM are fairly suggestive
that especially the afternoon hours will feature a rapid
development of a varied mix of showery precip types over
especially the southeast quadrant of our CWA (those areas mainly
near/east of Hwy 281 and near/south of I-80). Given that
forecast soundings hover near the 0C line in the low-mid levels,
this showery precip (should it develop) could be anything from
snow, to sleet, to perhaps even a little freezing rain or "plain
rain" (especially in KS where surface temps should be warmest).
Although things certainly have the potential to still trend
worse, our latest forecast officially "downplays" things a bit,
with PoPs/Chances no higher than 20-40%, and any snow/sleet
accumulation under one-half inch. Due to this current "low end"
expectation in terms of wintry precip likelihood and
amounts/impacts, we cannot justify a proactive Winter Weather
Advisory at this time (but this bears watching). On top of
everything, and although not reflected in our official forecast
or the latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, there could even be
a few rumbles of thunder given up to a few hundred J/kg of
elevated instability/CAPE. As for daytime high temps, they were
not changed much...still calling for mainly mid 30s east to
upper 30s-low 40s west.

For around sunset and beyond, any possible MEASURABLE wintry mix
should have vacated our CWA to the east. However, especially the
latest NAM (which is often over-agressiveness with low level
saturation) suggests that especially our far eastern zones could
see a low chance for freezing drizzle. Low temps changed
little...mainly low-mid 20s.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (possibly freezing drizzle issues?):
Unfortunately, uncertainty in the likelihood/magnitude of any
wintry precip continues. However, it is starting to look more
likely that the vast majority of any precipitation that does
occur will be in the form of fin-droplet DRIZZLE or FREEZING
DRIZZLE (as opposed to steadier heavier showers). Any freezing
drizzle threat would mainly occur right away in the morning,
before surface temps warm enough to change any possible light
icing over to "plain"/non-freezing drizzle by late morning.
Getting into the very late night (post-midnight) hours, some
models (including ECMWF) suggest that an area of showers/weak
thunderstorms could flare up very near our far southeastern CWA,
but better chances currently appear to focus slightly east, and
this is not in our official forecast.

Temp-wise, highs similar to previous (low 40s east to upper 40s
west), with Mon night lows a bit warmer than the previous few
nights (mainly upper 20s-mid 30s).


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT (more, mainly rain chances):
Although confidence is high that it will mainly be of the
lighter and non-frozen variety, various chances for rain/rain
showers continue as a slow-moving shortwave trough traverses the
Central Plains. Again, while not in the official forecast most
areas, a few weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High temps
currently aimed around 50 degrees most areas.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (mostly dry):
Although rain showers could return for Thursday night (mainly
per ECWMF), the majority of these 48 hours have trended drier
with no mentionable precip chances, as we reside "in between"
systems. High temps have trended up several degrees...now mainly
mid 50s-low 60s Wed...and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY (rain chances, but high uncertainty):
Mostly copying/pasting what was already touched on above...
Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying
solutions, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our
next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at
no higher than 50% during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR
too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big
uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate
thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday (possibly even severe!)
and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but
conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to
sort out here, and it`s far too soon to "buy into" any one
scenario. Temperature-wise, also somewhat low-confidence, but
for now we are calling for highs mainly mid 50s-low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although VFR conditions will likely prevail this afternoon in
the wake of an exiting disturbance, this evening will bring a
return of MVFR ceiling that will then only likely only further
lower to IFR late tonight and lasting through Monday morning.
Visibility will probably remain VFR, but some sporadic MVFR
cannot be ruled out if any light drizzle/freezing drizzle
manages to develop late tonight into Monday morning. Winds will
not be much of an issue throughout, with sustained speeds mainly
at-or-below 10KT as direction gradually shifts from more
easterly to more south-southeasterly with time.

- Additional ceiling/visibility/precipitation potential
  details:
Although a few-to-scattered low clouds could linger around this
afternoon, confidence is now fairly high that VFR will prevail
through around 01Z, when a low-end VFR/high-end MVFR ceiling
will likely advect in from the south. As the night wears on,
this ceiling should only gradually lower, with an onset of IFR
expected sometime in the 08-12Z time frame...then persisting
through the remainder of the period. Kept visibility no worse
than low-end VFR for now, but IF any light freezing drizzle or
light fog manages to develop late tonight into Monday morning,
then at least brief/sporadic MVFR cannot be ruled out. This is
considered a low probability scenario, with much higher
confidence in the low ceilings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

If you thought it has been unusually warm so far this winter,
you are right! With February now in the books, the traditional
winter months of December-January-February (DJF) ended as the
5th warmest DJF in Hastings (33.6 degrees) and 6th warmest
DJF in Grand Island (33.2 degrees) since record keeping began
(based on average temperature).

In both cases, this was the warmest winter locally since the
winter of 1991-1992, when the average temperature was 34.6
degrees and 35.1 degrees, respectively. The winter of 1991-1992
remains the warmest winter on record at both sites.

In comparison to normal, the average temperatures at both sites
was just over 5 degrees above average for the 3 month period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NEZ085>087.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ006-
     007-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATES...Pfannkuch/Rossi
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion