Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

642
FXUS63 KOAX 260533
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the before sunrise.
  Severe storms are unlikely this morning.

- Severe thunderstorm chances return Sunday afternoon into early
  Monday. All severe weather hazards will be possible, especially
  in southeast Nebraska.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected next week with little to
  no additional chances for precipitation forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Southwest upper level flow is directed by a closed and stacked
low over Saskatchewan with a shortwave trof over California
embedded within that southwesterly flow. An inverted sfc trof
stretches from near the NE/IA/MO triple point NNE toward Mason
City, IA.

Severe storms developed on the northern nose of the an area of
instability associated with a sfc low tracking along the
Kansas/Nebraska state line this evening.

Behind the departing system, low cigs have developed across the
western half of the forecast area. Short-term guidance suggests
visibility to be reduced to 1-3 miles in many of these same
areas by sunrise. Have added patchy fog to the forecast
overnight for most of the areas west of the Missouri River until
about noon, though it may last longer.

Sunday`s severe weather threat remains less certain than we`d
like due to the influences of the shower/storm activity
overnight and again on Sunday morning. Regardless, a sfc low is
expected to develop in the Lee of the Rockies as the shortwave
approaches from the west. Southerly flow brings solid moisture
return and resultant instability to the area as mid-level height
falls give incentive for updrafts. Guidance seems to be coming
closer to a consensus of morning convection developing in
western Kansas early Sunday morning and pushing northeast into
eastern Nebraska by late afternoon/early evening. The primary
threat with these storms would once again be large hail up to 2"
in diameter in much of the same area under the threat on
Saturday night (south of I-80). Damaging winds and a few
tornados up to EF2 strength are possible (SPC).

Expect a lull in convection around midnight, before another
uptick with the passage of the sfc low / triple just south of
the area. CAMs suggest a higher severe threat with these storms
with a greater amount of instability in the warm sector. Current
guidance keeps them just south of this CWA. It`s usually a
safer bet to assume that a second round of storms will end up
farther south than farther north thanks to a potential cold
pool. Damaging hail and wind will be possible again overnight,
even north of the warm front. The overnight tornado potential
would be limited to the warm sector which may struggle to drive
too far north into far southeast Nebraska.

PoPs will slowly climb through the day from about 15% at sunrise
to near 100% by sunset Sunday eve. PWAT values are in the 90th
percentile and the excessive rainfall outlook is currently at
`marginal`. I wouldn`t be surprised to see it pushed to `slight`
as the storms will be producing very heavy rain at times. (Not
too heavy though, HREF has 95% chance QPF under 1" an hour). QPF
of 1-2" is common along and east of the Missouri River. HREF
gives odds of 1"+ of precip in these areas a 60-90% probability.

The rest of the forecast is generally dry under quasi-zonal flow as
temps will hang near seasonal norms. If you`re one of those
people that "misses" spring, here`s your chance to get out there
and enjoy it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Scattered storms have developed along a line through KLNK
stretching northeast toward KOMA. Could potentially see storms
make it up to KOMA in the next hour. These storms should
eventually lift north by 08-09Z leaving quiet weather for the
rest of the night at the terminals. Marginally IFR/LIFR cigs
have moved into KOFK and will stay solidly LIFR overnight with
IFR cigs expected to move into KLNK by around 08Z. This area of
low clouds will eventually make it into KOMA later this morning
around 16Z as it continues to expand eastward. Expect a mix of
MVFR and IFR cigs through the TAF period Sunday with storms
moving back in around 19-20Z. There will be a break after this
round of storms for a couple hours before another round of
storms move in late Sunday night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

052
FXUS63 KGID 260634
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
134 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light fog is expected overnight into this morning for much of
  the area. Visibilities may get as low as a half mile.

- There is a marginal to enhanced risk of severe storms this
  afternoon through tonight with some uncertainty in where and when
  storms will develop.

- The main threats with the storms today into tonight will be
  large hail up to around golf ball size, wind gusts up to 70
  MPH, and a few isolated tornadoes.

- Frost and freeze conditions may develop Monday night through
  Friday night with Monday and Tuesday nights having the highest
  risk.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2026

Northerly winds are across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. Light fog is developing due to the recent
rainfall and cooling temperatures. Low temperatures overnight are
expected to cool into the mid 30s to low 50s. Additional showers may
develop overnight into Sunday morning. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west of the area Sunday
morning and move northeastward. There is some uncertainty in regards
to thunderstorm development (when and where it will develop) from
the afternoon through the evening into the overnight hours tonight.
After the initial round of convection today, there will likely be
more storm development in more than 1 round that will move through
the area. There are some differences among the models as to
where and when these rounds of convection will develop. There is
a risk of severe storms today into tonight given fairly high
CAPE, wind shear, and atmospheric lift. There is a marginal to
enhanced risk of severe storms per the Storm Prediction Center`s
Day 1 outlook with the highest risk to the south. The main
threats with these storms will be large hail up to golf ball
size, wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and a few isolated tornadoes.
There is a chance (20% - 30%) with the multiple rounds of
convection and cloud cover that the atmosphere will not have
enough time to get unstable enough for widespread severe
weather. High temperatures today will range from the low 50s to
the low 70s. Showers and storms will likely be across at least a
portion of the forecast area tonight (up to a 85% to 90%
chance). Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the 40s and
50s.

There continue to be various chances of showers and thunderstorms
across at least a portion of the forecast area each day Monday
through Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and
60s. Low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night will mostly be
in the 30s with some upper 20s on Tuesday night with a risk of frost
and freeze developing. Low temperatures for the rest of the week
will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some areas at risk for
frost and possibly freeze in isolated locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A sharp frontal zone is currently bisecting the area from SW to
NE...with temperatures on the NW side actually falling into the
40s...whereas areas that remain ahead of the front have warmed
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The frontal zone is serving as
a focus for strong the severe thunderstorms this afternoon, and
expect this threat to continue for much of the evening, mainly
for areas E and S of Hastings. Instability falls off rather
quickly N of Hwy 6 E of Hastings, so while a strong storm with
small to maybe marginally severe hail (0.5-1." in diameter)
can`t be ruled out, and primary severe threat will be S of Hwy 6
and near/E of Hwy 281 where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 9PM this evening. These areas have destabilized
considerably more in a pocket of recent clearing, as evident by
HJH shooting up to 75F degrees. This is supporting around
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which combined with effective deep
layer shear of 40-50kt, is more than enough CAPE/shear for
supercells. Mid level lapse rates are steep, but not crazy
steep, so think quarter to perhaps golf ball hail is the main
threat. Can`t rule out some localized damaging wind with any
RFDs as well as a brief tornado given presence of a boundary and
ample 0-3km CAPE. Expect most of the organized convection to
clear the forecast area to the E/SE by around 8-9PM, leaving
damp & dreary conditions through the overnight. Will need to
watch for some dense fog potential late overnight into Sunday
morning as winds back more towards the E (upslope) amidst
already high boundary layer moisture left over by today`s rain.

Focus then turns to our next round of convection and severe
weather potential on Sunday. Unfortunately, models still remain
quite varied in their solutions on how the day ultimately pan`s
out, specifically with regards to the coverage, intensity, and
timing of initially elevated convection late morning into early
afternoon...and how that impacts destabilization potential later
on in the day. Still too much uncertainty to put too much stock
into one single model, but general trends on the last two runs
of the HREF suggest a consensus may be forming. It roughly
supports the last couple runs of the HRRR in that there will be
increasing elevated convection that develops from SW Nebraska
into north central KS during the morning hours, that then shifts
NE across the area during the bulk of the daytime hours. This
round could have a non-zero severe potential with it
particularly on the S/SE flank and as it begins to interact with
increasing instability. This would be roughly the same areas
experiencing severe weather today, with large hail again the
primary threat. The exact timing of this first round will be
absolutely critical to fine tuning the severe threat both during
the day, and with any subsequent rounds during the evening
and/or overnight.

Speaking of which...appears a second round may develop W/SW of
the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening,
then quickly move E/NE during the mid-late evening and
overnight. This is the round the some of the hi-res guidance
really pegs as the potential high-end severe threat. Now...will
this actually be for our area (mainly KS zones), or will the
main threat remain just SW/S of the area due to stabilizing
effects from the first round? That`s the big question at this
point. Conceptually speaking and from personal experience these
setup`s usual favor more S than N than what one thinks 24+ hours
out...but if the morning activity isn`t very widespread or
intense, the effective warm front could trend further N.
Regardless of where the boundary sets up, storms along it will
be perfectly situated in a volatile combination of instability
and shear, and the strongest forcing/height falls may lag just
enough to preclude more widespread coverage - thus leading to
better potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Very
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will be
possible with any supercells in this area between 21Z-03Z. After
03Z, would expect some upscale growth into lines and/or clusters
as forcing increases along with the low level jet. As such, a
large hail and damaging wind threat (maybe a brief tornado)
could continue well into the overnight...again favoring areas
along/S of the state line the most.

The upper low will pivot E/NE across the NE/SD border area on
Monday and continue a shower/weak thunderstorm threat throughout
the daytime, esp. for areas N/NE of the Tri-Cities. Monday will
not really be any more pleasant than the weekend given
increasingly strong NW winds and chilly highs in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The main story for the rest of the week will be chilly
temperatures and nearly nightly frost/freeze concerns for a good
chunk of the forecast area. Obviously, NW zones will be at most
risk for actual freezing temperatures, but frosty conditions
could easily spread in the the Tri-Cities, esp. Wed & Fri AMs

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR ceilings are favored through the period, although
there is a chance that ceilings may improve to MVFR in the afternoon
and early evening. Areas of fog/mist this morning will persist
through sunrise, eventually being replaced by rain showers.


There is a low chance (30%) for a few t-storms in the early
afternoon, likely followed by a dry break in the late afternoon
and evening. Another round of showers/storms is then expected in
the late evening into the overnight hours.

NNE winds turn to the east through the morning hours, and to the
east-southeast in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion