Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

712
FXUS63 KOAX 060421
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected through Wednesday, with
  frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings across
  northeast Nebraska.

- A low chance (10-30%) of showers is expected Friday morning.

- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s to
  near 80 by the end of the work week, with additional rain
  chances (30-60%) Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A reinforcing shortwave trough is sinking south over the
northern Great Plains this evening. This feature within the
broader longwave trough is helping to filter additional cool
and dry air into the region. Rain chances should continue to
move well south and east out of the region tonight. Surface high
pressure builds into the area by morning, allowing for calm
winds. Temperatures are likely to fall to near freezing across
much of the area. That being said, lingering mid to high level
clouds should limit frost development for most areas outside of
areas near the South Dakota border. The cooler temperatures
continue into Wednesday afternoon with another day of
temperatures in the 50s across the area. On the bright side,
cloud cover should gradually decrease with peaks of sun by the
afternoon. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the
30s once again Thursday morning, but an increasing southwest
wind should keep frost at bay for most. Patchy fog in low-lying
areas that are sheltered from the wind may still be possible.

Temperatures are forecast to warm through the end of the work
week as modest upper-level ridging takes over. Temperatures rise
into the lower 70s on Thursday before approaching 80 by Friday.
It should be dry for much of the remainder of the work week,
but a weak disturbance during the morning on Friday may be
enough to squeeze out a low (10-30%) chance of showers. Our next
good chance of rain doesn`t take shape until the weekend.
Saturday into Sunday sees an area of low pressure take shape
south of the area as a shortwave trough moves out into the Great
Plains. We are likely to be on the northern edge of the better
moisture. That being said, shower and thunderstorm (30-60%)
chances are anticipated for much of the area. The best chance of
measurable precipitation will be across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, closer to the developing low pressure system. A
cool-down arrives behind this system on Sunday before
temperatures begin to increase again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to last through the next 24 hours,
with north-northwesterly winds and occasional gusts to 15-20 kts
occurring through the afternoon. Winds will become light
overnight, varying somewhat in direction but leaning northerly,
before returning north-northwesterly tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

114
FXUS63 KGID 052342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s today and
  Wednesday with rain showers across portions of the area.
  Temperatures will be warmer beginning Thursday.

- There are frost/freeze concerns Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning across much of the area but higher winds may be a
  hindering factor.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather may develop Thursday,
  Friday, and Saturday across portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper low is centered north of the Great Lakes over Canada with
an associated upper trough extending southwest. There is another
upper low centered over Southern California which is attached to the
previously mentioned upper trough. Nebraska and Kansas are under the
upper trough with rain showers moving across portions of the region.
A surface high along with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are across
the area. These conditions will keep temperatures cooler today with
highs mostly in the 50s. Showers may continue across portions of the
area tonight with the highest chances in north central Kansas
(portions of the area up to around 90% chance). Low temperatures
tonight are expected to range from the low 30s to low 40s. Frost
potential is low (20% or less) tonight despite areas reaching the
low to mid 30s due to drier air expected to be in place as well as
cloud cover.

The cooler airmass will still be in place on Wednesday with high
temperatures fairly similar to today. Rain showers will still be
possible (15% to 70% chance) on Wednesday due to increased lift from
the upper trough still being over the region. Rain showers are
expected to be out of the area by Wednesday night with clearing
skies and temperatures dropping into the 30s (mostly low to mid
30s). There will be increased (around 40% to 50%) frost and freeze
concerns for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The hindering factor
will be increased wind speeds which may result in slightly higher
temperatures and/or prevent frost from developing.

The cooler airmass will depart the area by Thursday with winds
increasing out of the southwest to west Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 70s on Thursday.
Heightened fire weather concerns are expected on Thursday with wind
gusts getting up to near/around 20 MPH and minimum humidity values
generally between 15% and 25% across the whole area. Overnight lows
will be warmer beginning Thursday night/Friday morning with
temperatures mostly in the 40s. Winds across the area will be in the
process of transitioning to the northwest Thursday night/Friday
morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest to north Friday
morning and will decrease later in the day. High temperatures are
again expected to be in the 70s. There are some concerns for fire
weather on Friday due to lingering wind gusts in the afternoon and
minimum humidity values possibly getting down to around 20% across
west/northwest portions of the area.

A cold front will move southward towards south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. In advance of the
front, temperatures are expected to warm up to the 70s and 80s.
There is some fire weather concern on Saturday with wind gusts up to
20 to 30 MPH and humidity down to around 25% across western and
southern portions of the area. If the front speeds up, then
temperatures will not be as warm. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening in
association with the cold front (15% to 50% chance). Cooler
temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures are then expected to rebound into the upper 70s to mid
80s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Another upper level disturbance moving into and through the area
tonight into Wednesday will keep rain chances around during this
TAF period...with better chances affecting KEAR moreso than
KGRI. At KGRI, kept a VCSH mention going for a few hours early
in the period, then dried things out...most models keep activity
out of that area...but will be watching radar trends closely to
see if anything sneaks back in. At KEAR, have a prevailing -SHRA
mention early on...then going to a PROB30 group as more
uncertainty arises with models focusing things to the SSW. This
evening-tonight, expecting light/variable winds...turning more
northerly early Wed. morning, then more westerly through the
afternoon hours. Speeds remain light around 10-15 MPH. Model
guidance/time heights kept ceilings VFR...but do have bases
close around 4k ft.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion