Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

978
FXUS63 KOAX 140450
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday,
  especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

- Thursday appears dry with our next weather system arriving
  sometime next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After an active stretch of weather, a welcomed respite has
arrived. A cold front has pushed through the region late this
evening as an amplifying trough continues to dig into the
central and eastern CONUS. Behind the cold front, cooler and
drier air continues to filter in. By sunrise on Sunday, a jacket
may be required as a cool north wind with temperatures in the
50s is expected. High pressure will settle into the region by
Sunday afternoon, offering up temperatures in the 70s under
mostly sunny skies. A similar forecast begins the work week as
surface high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures
start in the 50s once again, but afternoon highs increase into
the lower 80s on Monday. Skies remain mostly sunny. The same
will largely hold true for Tuesday. The one exception is a low
chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm as a weak cold
front sweeps across the region early Tuesday morning.

Our next chance of rain is not set to arrive until Wednesday. A
more prominent trough begins to dig towards the central Plains
by Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of this, the ridge will build
slightly, pushing our temperatures into the lower 90s. As the
trough moves overhead, another front is anticipated to push
across the area. Along and ahead of the front has the best
chance of thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
With the front pushing through, Thursday appears a little cooler
and dry. The evolution of the pattern remains a bit uncertain by
the end of the week into next weekend. That said, a weakening of
the eastern CONUS trough, a building of the central CONUS ridge,
and a digging western CONUS trough would lend to a warmer and
potentially more active forecast pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the
terminals. Expect northwest winds around 5-10kts overnight,
increasing to 10-15kts by 15Z at KOFK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

857
FXUS63 KGID 140009
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
709 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...Key Messages and Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Now that any severe thunderstorm threat in our southern
  counties has all but ended for this evening, we enter at least
  a brief stretch of quiet weather (compared to lately!). There
  is essentially zero threat of any severe storms until AT LEAST
  Tues-Wed (and those severe chances are still plenty "iffy"
  and could easily focus slightly outside our forecast area
  altogether).

- Most of next week will remain dry. Temperatures will start the
  week below normal, but 90s are expected to return by
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As of early afternoon, an outflow boundary from morning
convection has stalled out over northern KS with the main cold
front slowly pushing through south-central and eastern Nebraska.
A few cells have already begun to develop north of Columbus, and
additional development is expected later in the
afternoon (by 3-5pm). If anything, this front has trended a bit
slower and further north, which brings potential for storms to a
larger portion of the area. Based on latest CAM guidance, roughly
the southeastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area has at least SOME
chance for t-storms, but the highest threat for severe weather
will remain further southeast where instability is highest and
convection will encounter less inhibition. Large hail and
damaging wind are the main threats, as the low level wind
profile is not favorable for tornadoes.

Storms should depart the area to the southeast by 8-9pm this
evening. Clearing skies in the post-frontal airmass will then
allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s and 50s by Sunday
morning.

The daytime on Sunday remains cool, with highs struggling to
reach 70 degrees in some places. Cloud cover will increase as an
upper level perturbation moves through, and a few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out. But most areas will remain completely dry.

Westerly surface winds return for Monday, which will aid
temperatures back into the upper 70s for most. The warming trend
then continues on Tuesday with rising heights aloft.
Temperatures peak on Wednesday ahead of a southeasterly-moving
shortwave. Most areas should reach the 90s, and portions of KS
could approach/exceed 100 degrees. This shortwave could bring a
few showers/t-storms to the area on Wednesday, but this will be
more favorable to our east.

Thursday looks to be a bit cooler behind this system, with
ensembles continuing to depict mostly dry conditions through the
end of the week. Rain/tstorm chances then increase again as we
head into Father`s Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout
the period, as surface high pressure ushers in seasonably-dry
and stable air for at least a few days. That being said, there
is a small (10%) chance of a rogue sprinkle/brief light shower
late in the period on Sunday afternoon as ceiling perhaps as low
as around 6K ft. AGL tries to develop. However, this probability
is currently considered too low/too low of an impact for TAF
inclusion.

As for winds, direction will prevail northerly to northwesterly
throughout. The strongest speeds will be right away these first
few hours (gusts 20-25KT), with sustained speeds through most of
the remainder of the period prevailing at-or-below 12KT (perhaps
some 15-20KT gusts during the middle part of the day Sunday).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion