Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

632
FXUS63 KOAX 160535
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms
  across southeast Nebraska early Tuesday morning and across far
  eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early Wednesday morning.

- Wednesday afternoon is expected to be hot, dry, and windy with
  very high fire danger forecast across portions of northeast
  Nebraska.

- A more active weather pattern arrives late this week into this
  weekend. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms exist
  through this time period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A weak disturbance is pivoting across the northern Plains into
the Great Lakes region tonight. A weak front accompanies this
feature. This front will do little to temperatures, but will
bring a low (10-30%) chance of showers and a few rumbles of
thunder to portions of southeast Nebraska early Tuesday
morning. Temperatures start in the 50s to near 60 as surface
high pressure fills in behind the front during this time.
Another beautiful afternoon is expected with temperatures
warming into the low 80s under mostly sunny skies with light
winds. This weather will be hard to beat for mid-June.

A more substantial weather system is set to dive across the
Plains heading into Wednesday. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms may skirt far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the system rapidly
approaches. This activity will be working with limited moisture
and instability, so little impact is expected. With the
progression of this system continuing to be faster in the latest
model guidance, the afternoon thunderstorm threat has become
more and more unlikely. As a result, a quicker frontal passage
will result in a hot, dry, and windy afternoon. Wind gusts
across a large portion of the area may reach as high as 35-45
mph by afternoon as temperatures push well into the 80s and
relative humidity falls to around 25%. For much of the area this
isn`t a problem with green vegetation in place, but lingering
dry fuels over portions of northeast Nebraska may support very
high fire danger. The wind and fire threat remains on the
marginal side, but wind advisories or fire weather products may
be required.

Surface high pressure fills in behind Wednesday`s system for
Thursday. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures are anticipated
for the afternoon. Most locations see highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s for another beautiful day. Beyond Thursday, a transition
to a more active weather pattern remains on track. As the more
progressive weather pattern takes shape, several disturbances
are likely to traverse the region late this week through the
weekend. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms are
forecast through this period. While peak severe weather season
is coming to an end, severe weather potential may still be
possible and this will need to be monitored as this time period
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast
period. Light northwest winds continue through the morning
hours, transitioning to southerly by 00Z. KLNK and KOMA may see
a few sprinkles overnight, but otherwise the period will be dry.
Toward the end of the forecast, LLWS may develop at KLNK/KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

478
FXUS63 KGID 160531
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance (20-30%) spotty showers and thunderstorms late
  tonight into early Tuesday southeast of the Tri-cities into
  southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Hot and windy on Wednesday. Highs in the 90s with winds 20-30
  gusting to 40 mph.

- Thunderstorm chances increase (greater than 40-60%) for the
  weekend as the pattern becomes more active.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the
great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the
area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during
the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to
impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even
moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to
Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not
expected to be strong or severe.

As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the
pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week.
The next front will move through the area Wednesday.
Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in
the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models
currently show the front traversing the area during the day,
which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly
downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up
where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the
southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the
front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the
front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across
the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas,
especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near
critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the
fuels and the weather conditions.

After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a
bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week.

The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an
upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday
into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is
currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could
be strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast
period. Mid to upper level clouds are clouds are expected to move
across the area tonight, with more upper level clouds possibly
developing in the afternoon. Light, variable winds are expected
tonight, becoming southerly by the late morning. Wind speeds will
increase Tuesday afternoon through the evening, with southerly winds
gusting to near 30 kts possible at the end of the forecast
period. These strong surface level winds below a developing SW
low-level jet make low-level wind shear a possibility at the end
of the forecast period (approximately 4Z and onward). However,
confidence in the magnitude, height, and coverage of this shear
is low and has thus not been included in the TAF at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion