Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

266
FXUS63 KOAX 172029
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
329 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

- Heat builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching 100
  to 108 degrees Sunday and Monday. A Heat Advisory is in effect
  on Sunday across northeast Nebraska and this will likely need
  to be expanded to the rest of the area on Monday.

- Cooler weather returns by midweek, along with increasing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Tonight through Saturday...

Much of eastern NE and western IA is near or exceeding the
convective temperature this afternoon. In fact around 2pm, a
lone cell had formed along I-80 near Neola, IA but has since
diminished. A scattered cumulus field has also developed across
the entire area, but so far there are only a couple locations
with any meaningful vertical cloud depth. Development remains
possible this afternoon due to strong heating and instability.
Effective deep shear is very minimal, but much like yesterday,
high precipitable water values and slow cell motion would
suggest high rainfall rates for 15-20 minutes with any shower or
storms this afternoon. Overall, it does appear like shower
activity is more favorable in Kansas and Missouri today.

It`s a little more of rinse and repeat on Saturday on the back of
strong diurnal heating. The difference tomorrow will be a west-east
orientated boundary that drops south across the area throughout the
day. This will likely be a focus for convective initiation during
the afternoon. Even though most of the convective allowing
models show isolated to scattered coverage, you could make the
argument that 15-30% of precip might not cut it across far
eastern NE and western IA if the past couple days are any
indication. Afternoon clouds could keep the temperatures just a
bit cooler as well.

Sunday and Monday...

Ridging over the Intermountain West slides a bit farther east
for the second half of the weekend and early next week. This
will set the stage for even warmer temperatures during this time
frame. But before getting into temperatures, now that we are
within 48 hours of Sunday, HRRR/NSSL- WRF/RAP all try to bring
in convection early in the morning across north central and
northeast portions of Nebraska. Precip during the early morning
hours on Sunday seem to tied to pronounced WAA at 925-850mb
across South Dakota. Activity will try to move east-southeast
with time, but the model trend is to diminish activity before
arriving in eastern portions of the state. We will need to
monitor how any residual cloud cover affects temperatures on
Sunday.

As previous discussions have mentioned, a shortwave trough
pushing into the Northern Plains is expected to initiate
overnight convection late in the day on Sunday, potentially
organizing into an MCS overnight. Ensemble guidance has
consistently kept most of the activity north and east of the
forecast area across SD/IA. 850mb temperatures climb into the
mid to upper 20s on Monday, which combined with breezy south/southwest
winds, will set the stage for a run at 100 F for many locations
across the area. Unless something dramatic changes with the
forecast, this will likely be our hottest day of the summer so
far. Most locations have topped out in the mid 90s so far this
year.

Tuesday through Friday...

A break from the more extreme heat arrives on the heels of a
cold front and will remain in place through next week. By
Wednesday night into Thursday, we`ll find ourselves on the
backside of the surface ridge just to the east of the front.
This still looks like our best opportunity for precipitation in
the next 7 days. We have included rain chances on Friday as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. By this time
yesterday afternoon the cumulus cloud field was much more
expansive with signs of vertical growth, which eventually lead
to the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. It`s looking a bit
drier this afternoon, but we can`t rule out a pop up shower
between 21-00z at KOMA or KLNK. The chance for that is about
10%.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-016-
     017.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...Franks

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

877
FXUS63 KGID 171831
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
131 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather continues through the weekend, peaking on Monday
  with highs in the 100s. Widespread heat index values in the
  100s are expected on Monday.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible (15%) Saturday
  afternoon-evening. Strong/severe storms are not expected.

- Cooler (seasonable) weather expected Tuesday onwards with
  highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.

- Scattered shower/storm chances (15-45%) return mid-late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the upper 80s
to low 90s, and are expected to top out in the low-mid 90s. Aloft a
ridge remains in place over the eastern Rockies/western Plains. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with clear skies and
light winds.

Highs climb into the mid 90s on Saturday with light winds shifting
to the east as a weak front slides into the area. Isolated to
perhaps scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15%)
Saturday afternoon for areas mainly along/north of Interstate 80.
Weak shear should keep any shower/storm brief and non-severe. Any
shower/storm will dissipate around sunset as instability wanes.

Heat increases on Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s. Sunny
skies and light winds make for an unpleasant day for those outdoors.
Heat index values climb to around 100 degrees, but look to fall
short of reaching heat advisory criteria (105 degrees). Areas most
favored to experience 100 degree heat index values will be along and
north of I-80.

Monday remains on track to be the hottest day of the forecast
period. Forecast highs are currently in the low 100s, which would be
the first 100 degree day this year for most portions of the forecast
area. Highs combined with dewpoints in the 60s will result in
widespread heat index values in the 100s. At least a portion if not
the entire area will likely need a heat advisory on Monday, but will
defer to a future shift to narrow down the exact area that is likely
to meet advisory criteria. Those with outdoor activities on Monday
will want to take breaks and drink plenty of water as sunny skies
and light winds will not provide relief from the heat.

A trough dives into the Midwest Monday night, flattening the ridge
and pushing a cold front through the area. Cooler weather is
expected Tuesday onwards with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.
As a northwesterly flow pattern sets up over the area next week, it
will bring multiple chances for precipitation to the area. Details
on these chances will become clearer as we get closer in time (most
likely late afternoon-early overnight hours). &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT mid-high level
clouds are possible this afternoon, clearing this evening with
skies remaining clear overnight. Southerly winds become light
and variable this evening through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion