Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

831
FXUS63 KOAX 121055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday morning with a 30-40%
  chance from 3 to 10 AM. Additional storms are expected in the
  afternoon and evening, especially in southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa, where a few severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday with much
  uncertainty in the forecast details beyond Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mostly clear skies with northwesterly winds keeping temperatures
very pleasant this evening. Water vapor satellite imagery shows
the upper-level pattern well, with a broad trough over the
Northern Plains and the wave that lead to damaging storms across
our area this morning is currently wreaking havoc over northern
Illinois this evening.

We see weak ridging pass across our area on Friday keeping skies
clear. We lose the cooling effect of the northerly winds,
though, with a shift back to southerly flow by the afternoon.
This will allow temperatures to warm back into the mid 80s,
though humidity will remain low. Friday night we`ll see the
western side of the ridge start to bring moisture back up into
our region from the Gulf. With the nocturnal amplification of
the LLJ, we`ll see the atmosphere destabilize above the boundary
layer Friday night ahead of a shortwave riding across the nearly zonal
flow at 250-mb over the Central Plains. This will trigger
another round of overnight storms early Saturday morning.
Current guidance is leaning toward more of an early-morning
threat for strong to severe storms, which would be elevated
lending to a greater hail, wind, and flooding threat. If timing
slows down, we`d see an increased potential for surface-based
storms which means tornadoes. Right now the greater potential
for surface-based storms is over eastern Kansas into Missouri.

Sunday and beyond...

Once storms clear on Saturday or Saturday night, a cooler
Canadian air mass settles back over our region with mild, dry
weather expected through Tuesday. The upper-level zonal flow in
place over the weekend cedes to a strong trough dropping out of
Alberta, deepening across the Upper-Mississippi River Valley
Monday into Tuesday. To the west, we see ridging build up over
the PacNW, expanding eastward into the Great Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. As this occurs, we`ll see temperatures trending back
upward Tuesday into Wednesday.

A rigorous shortwave rides down into the northern Plains Tuesday
afternoon/evening, leading to the development of a broad area of
low pressure over the High Plains. As this shifts eastward and
deepens Tuesday night, we see the development of a strong
nocturnal LLJ pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
This will advect significant moisture back into our area
bringing back chances for nocturnal showers and storms into
early Wednesday.

Model guidance diverges significantly in how the upper-level
pattern responds behind this mid-week system, meaning
significant uncertainty in the forecast toward the latter half
of next week at this time. Guidance trends of warming
temperatures seem likely with the ridge continuing to shift
eastward over the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid-
level clouds this afternoon. Light southwesterly winds this
morning will become more southerly, with gusts of 18-25 kts this
afternoon into this evening. Some guidance suggests low level
wind shear at OFK late in the period, but currently think
surface wind gusts will stay strong enough to preclude mention
for now. Finally, could see some storms after 09Z, with highest
chances at OFK and OMA (30%), but they look spotty with low
confidence that either site will be impacted.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

984
FXUS63 KGID 121111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may
  bring some thunderstorms to parts of the area.

- Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the
  low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the
  90s to potentially around 100 degrees in a handful of places
  by midweek next week.

- Rain chances throughout the forecast are generally less than
  the last couple of weeks as "most" of the 7-day forecast is
  more dry than wet.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface high pressure is ridging its way into central Nebraska
from the west resulting in clear skies and cool early morning
temperatures in the 50s, even a few upper 40s in some of the
traditional cooler areas to the west and north of Kearney.

Look for a nice day today with lots of sunshine, comfortable
dewpoints and warmer temperatures as the high pressure slides
southeast into Missouri by this evening. South winds on the
back side of the high will pick up and gust to 30 mph this
afternoon, so don`t be shocked by the stronger winds, especially
west of Highway 281.

Tonight, the low-level jet will kick in again ahead of an
approaching cold front there. That will help return moisture and
instability to the region. Some models, but not all, develop
late night showers and thunderstorms at the nose of the low-
level jet after 1 AM and linger them into the daylight hours
Saturday. Teamed with a weak shortwave, effective shear is
sufficient to support a few stronger storms overnight and early
Saturday, assuming moisture return/instability is sufficient as
well. Given the timing of the front and capping to the
southwest, areas to the north and east of Grand Island are
favored for this late night convection. Even though its just 24
hours away, some more model clarity/consensus would be helpful
in determining the extent of the storms.

The cold front will eventually make progress during the morning
hours Saturday, and spread a northerly wind across the area.
SPC has removed any part any of the area out of the Day2 outlook
for severe severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the front
should manage to makes its way far enough south into Kansas to
take the severe risk with it. Still, we carry small shower/storm
chances for later Saturday for areas southeast of Hastings.
Cold advection will spread across the area Saturday with the
north winds making for a cooler afternoon than today. Skies will
mostly clear out Saturday night and as winds drop off, look for
another below normal night with lows ranging from the upper 40s
to upper 50s.

The forecast is technically dry from Sunday through Tuesday.
However, the area remains in west/northwest upper flow, and
while not likely wet, this flow can tend bring afternoon
sprinkles or even showers, so watch for forecast refinements
that may lead to some small rain chance. Sunday will be the
coolest day with highs 6-8 degrees below normal. Highs will
climb to normal by Tuesday. Summerlike temperatures sneak into
the area Wednesday but look to be short lived as the northwest
flow introduces rain/storm chances again and temperatures
slipping back a bit thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026


Tonight and Friday...

Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low
80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time
in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe
weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that
has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally
ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal,
generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher
pressure marching in behind last night`s front has helped clear out
most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as
response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few
degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and
beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to
southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from
today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon.


Friday Night into Saturday...

A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over
Canada`s Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains
region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer
of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold
front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few
storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday
into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe
weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would
not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or
gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms.
Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts
of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong
storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture
will rebound from today
Today will be Winds will shift to the south from west-to-east
today as the high pressure slides. The current forecast
projects dewpoints to only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at
least initially, generally not all that supportive. A few of
these overnight storms may linger into Saturday morning as the
front passes through the area.

A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited
southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a
line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be
highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday
morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the
front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in
the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take
place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip
our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards
will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms
wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a
few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will
turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH
winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon.


Sunday and Beyond...

Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the
flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern
does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs
(10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast
period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that
stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out
for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back
to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast at both Grand Island and Kearney
this forecast periods has high pressure this morning moves
off the east during the day. As a result, light and variable
winds early today will shift to the south, and increase with
gusts over 20kts this afternoon and in the early evening hours.
Only a few high clouds will be noted at times.

Tonight, surface winds and gusts drop off to some degree after
sunset, but south/southwest low level jet sets up and will
result in a non-convectie low-level wind shear. There is a
small risk for a thunderstorm in the Grand Island area
overnight with warm advection and the some instability/moisture
shifting north aboard the low-level jet. We have a PROB30 in the
forecast but honestly that might be a overly optimistic as
models are trending to less and less thunderstorm chance.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion