Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

291
FXUS63 KOAX 290506
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily
  across southeastern Nebraska overnight into Wednesday morning.
  Heavy rain and gusty winds may be possible with any storms
  that do develop.

- A series of systems move through the region Wednesday night
  through Friday, bringing the potential for measurable
  rainfall. A few strong to severe storms may be possible
  Thursday evening/night.

- Cooler temperatures are expected for the latter part of the
  week with highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The forecast period begins with the upper ridge over the western
Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle and northwest flow over the Great
Plains. A weak shortwave is moving around the ridge and will
arrive over the area later tonight/early Wednesday morning. The
best chance (20-30%) for showers/storms will be across
southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. At this time,
severe weather is not expected. However, several models are
showing precipitable water values of 1.75"+ over southeastern
Nebraska through tomorrow morning. Any storms that are able to
develop may produce heavy rain which could lead to some
localized flash flooding.

Wednesday, the ridge shifts slightly east, over the central Dakotas
as a trough comes ashore over the PACNW. This will be a system to
watch as it works its way across the CONUS, as it is expected to be
our next storm system. A few lingering showers/storms may be
possible in southeastern Nebraska early Wednesday morning, clearing
out by mid-morning. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s in the afternoon. Areas, particularly north of Hwy 92 may
see some hazy skies through the day as wildfire smoke filters into
the region from the northwest.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a series of disturbances move across
the region bringing chances for showers and storms. Any morning
convection may impact the severe weather potential expected later in
the day. The main wave is expected to move into the region Thursday
evening/night with warm, gulf moisture moving into the region. A few
storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall being the main concerns. Precipitable water
values continue to look pretty high for eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa. Flash flooding may be a concern as well Thursday
evening/night.

The upper wave will slide east, over central and western Iowa
and Minnesota Friday. Expect additional showers and
thunderstorms Friday morning, gradually ending west to east by
early afternoon. Enjoy some cooler temperatures with Friday
highs topping out in the low to mid-80s and Saturday morning
lows in the low to mid-60s.

The cooler weather sticks around through the weekend with a drier
pattern arriving. Saturday, an upper trough arrives over British
Columbia and the Aleutian Islands. Meanwhile, an upper ridge nudges
east over the Dakotas, with northerly flow setting up over the Great
Plains. Through the weekend, a few models are showing low pressure
developing and pushing into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with the
ridge being pushed over Minnesota and high pressure setting up over
the Four Corners. Expect a pleasant weekend with highs in the low to
mid-80s and lows in the 60s.

Dry weather and gradual warming is expected heading into the start
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the duration of
this TAF cycle. Winds at 12 kts or less from the east southeast
will become southeasterly by the late morning. There is a low 20
to 30% chance for some showers and storms after 09z that could
affect KLNK, but chances remain too low for inclusion in TAF at
this time. Expect some cumulus clouds based around 4,000 to
9,000 feet by the afternoon along with high based clouds. Some
may develop into scattered showers or storms after 21z and
affect KOMA and KLNK (20% chance), but model guidance shows
wide variability with placement of features so have kept
mentions out for this issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

065
FXUS63 KGID 290603
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
103 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/non-severe storms possible especially within portions
  of the southwestern 2/3rds of our forecast area through early-
  mid morning...potentially mostly concentrated within a fairly
  focused, northwest-southeast oriented corridor/band. IF this
  slow-moving convection materializes, localized heavy rain of
  1-3" possible.

- Additional upper level disturbances moving through the area
  Wednesday evening through Thursday night keep shower/storm
  chances in the forecast...mainly focused on the
  evening/overnight hours. Some storms Thu-Thu night could be
  marginally severe.

- Forecast dries back out of for the end of the week into the
  start of next week...highs generally remain in the 80s-near
  90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Currently through tonight...

Seeing dry conditions across the forecast area this afternoon,
following a round of showers and thunderstorms which passed
through last evening through early this morning. This
disturbance brought measurable rainfall to basically the entire
forecast area...though a good chunk were only a few hundredths
to around 0.15 of an inch. Main winners were along a narrow
swath running roughly from Smith Center, KS up into southern
York County...where totals were closer to 0.4-1.0 inch (isolated
spots exceeded 1 inch). This system helped cool temps a bit,
and though dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70s...heat index
values are an improvement over the past few days, sitting more
in the 90s. Upper air and satellite data show little change in
the overall pattern across the CONUS...ridging continues to
dominate the High Plains/central CONUS, keeping our flow west-
northwesterly. The surface pattern across the area remains
pretty weak, which has kept winds for most locations on the
light/variable side.

Seeing some scattered thunderstorms developing off to our west
over the Rockies in CO up into the WY/NE border area, where
steeper lapse rates here at peak-heating lie. The WNW flow aloft
will push this activity east the rest of this
afternoon/evening...although not very quickly. Kept the rest of
this afternoon into the evening hours dry...models are in decent
agreement showing this activity gradually fading the further
east it pushes, eventually losing daytime heating and there
isn`t quite as much instability as was in place the past few
days. After midnight, models are showing the potential for
increased storm development...running roughly WNW to ESE across
central/southern portions of the forecast area, along increased
(although still not strong) forcing along lower to mid-level
boundaries/convergence. Models vary on just how much coverage
there is...kept the PoPs on the lower side (20-30 percent), but
broad. Not expecting this activity to be severe...though
instability remains in place, the overall forcing is weak and
deep layer shear looks to struggle to even get to 20kts.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The main story through the mid-week period continues to lie with
a couple more upper level shortwave disturbances passing
through...overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in the
models/forecast.

Think that Wednesday will be similar to today...in that there
could be some activity left over from tonight lingering around
mainly southern/eastern portions of the area during the early-
mid morning hours...with the majority of the daytime hours being
dry. Not a lot of change in the upper level pattern, with the
persistent ridging keeping that west-northwesterly flow in
place. At the surface, models are showing winds turning more
southeasterly...with speeds around 10-15 MPH, some show the
potential for gusts near 20 MPH in spots. Forecast highs also
similar to today in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Little more uncertainty remains Wednesday night on through
Thursday night with the timing/coverage of precipitation
associated with additional disturbances moving through. Models
vary more on Wed night into Thursday, some more generous with
activity, others showing a smaller swath developing with weaker
forcing. Models remain pretty consistent showing a stronger wave
moving through Thu evening-night...bringing better potential
for storms, some of which could be strong-severe (the entire
area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area). Forecast
highs a bit more of a range from the mid 80s-mid 90s...driven by
some models keeping activity lingering around longer into the
day than others.

Friday on into early next week...

Forecast for the end of the week into the start of the new work
week dries back out. The main impact from the disturbance
moving through Thursday night is with the westward shift of the
main upper level ridge axis, bringing more amplified north-
northwesterly flow to the Central Plains at least through the
weekend. Models showing an overall lack of disturbances through
the weekend, with some low PoPs returning around Tuesday. Breezy
NNE winds are forecast for Friday in the wake of a sfc frontal
passage...but at this point that front doesn`t look to have a
notable downward impact on temps or dewpoints, with highs in the
mid-80s to near 90. Forecast highs through the weekend on into
Monday are similar to Friday, mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free
conditions are likely/expected through the majority of the
period, there are definitely a few uncertainties/possible
"catches", as outlined below. As for winds, assuming no enhanced
thunderstorm outflow materializes, winds should be a minimal
issue throughout the period. Sustained speeds should average at-
or-below 10KT, with direction mainly easterly to southeasterly.

- Main potential concerns and associated uncertainties:
1) Possible low ceiling and/or visibility?:
At this time, have maintained VFR in prevailing groups. However,
SOME models/guidance fairly strongest suggest that at least an
MVFR (possibly lower) ceiling could materialize at some point
this morning and perhaps even stick around into the afternoon,
while other models/guidance maintain VFR and no worse than
scattered low clouds. This is frustrating from a forecast
perspective, but have maintained an approach of keeping things
on the optimistic side until/unless "proven otherwise", as have
also seen many instances where potential showers/thunderstorms
"disrupt" or at least delay potential low stratus from forming.
As a result, for now have only "hinted" at potential sub-VFR
ceiling in scattered lower cloud groups. It`s a similar story
with regard to possible sub-VFR visibility, as either spotty
heavy rain and/or at least light fog could also show it`s hand
at some point this morning, just a lot of uncertainty regarding
likelihood.

2) Possible rain/thunderstorms:
Honestly, the majority of the period will feature at least a
small (10-20% ) chance of very isolated/spotty convection.
However, through much of this time this probability is too low
for TAF inclusion. However, the main exception (which is also
far from certain but at least more possible) is a chance for at
least brief/intermittent showers/storms affecting the area
mainly 09-15Z this morning. Given only medium confidence in
occurrence, have maintained only basic PROB30 groups at this
time. Should storms impact KGRI/KEAR, the main issue would be
heavy downpours and associated reduced visibility.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion