Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

698
FXUS63 KOAX 300531
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
  eastern Nebraska into Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall will
  be possible under the strongest storms.

- A more widespread line of thunderstorms is likely to move across
  the region later on Thursday into Friday morning. Damaging wind
  will be possible with the initial line of storms, along with
  heavy rain and small hail.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in
  the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Fairly quiet across the region late this evening as earlier
showers and storms had largely come to an end. However, we do
expect storm re-development overnight as shortwave energy over
western NE approaches and low-level moisture transport ramps up
and points into the area. In addition, we`ll have a decent
amount of instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along with
precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches and warm cloud
depths over 4.5 km. Therefore, any storms that do develop will
be very efficient rain producers, as we saw during the day in
parts of the area where we observed 2+ inch per hour rainfall
rates. If we get repeated rounds over any areas, localized
flooding would be possible, especially in areas that saw rain
during the day on Wednesday. Still some questions on how
widespread these storms will be, with short term guidance
ranging from a few somewhat short-lived spotty showers to a
relatively persistent, solid line. On top of that, even run-to-
run consistency is somewhat low. All that said, just given the
setup with the aforementioned instability, moisture transport,
and incoming shortwave energy, tend to lean toward maybe the
higher end of shower and storm coverage into Thursday morning,
so will maintain the 40- 60% chances.

Attention then turns to how long the precip and cloud-cover
lingers into the day on Thursday as guidance is in good
agreement of a cold front firing some storms along the NE/SD
border by the afternoon and pushing them into northeast NE and
eventually across the area during the evening into overnight
hours. Should early-day storms and clouds linger longer,
obviously the incoming line will have less instability to work
with and would be a little weaker, and vice versa. Shear also
looks to be somewhat across our area (30-35 kts in the 0-6 km
layer and 15-25 kts in the 0-3 km layer), so tend to the line
will likely become outflow dominant and weaken as it pushes
through. Still, guidance shows pockets of 45-60+ mph winds,
especially farther west where 0-3 km shear and instability will
be enhanced. Additionally, the environment for efficient rain
producing storms will remain in place, so could see some heavy
rain and localized flooding, especially if any areas see
training storms.

Think the primary severe weather threat should exit our area
toward 4-5 AM with perhaps some lingering showers and non-severe
storms on the back side of the shortwave and a surface low off
to our east. The northwesterly flow and lingering precip/clouds
will lead to a cooler day with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s.

We`ll warm back up a bit for the weekend with upper level
ridging building back in and surface high pressure dominating to
keep us dry. Expect lower to mid 80s on Saturday followed by
mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and Monday as southerly flow
strengthens on the back side of departing high pressure. Our
next rain chances look to arrive by Monday night/Tuesday as a
large scale trough slides by to our north and a cold front
pushes south toward or through the area. Still some spread in
various ensemble members on just how far south the front and
precip will make it, but currently seeing about 20-40% chance at
times through Wednesday night, with model consensus keeping
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this morning.
Some scattered clouds around 2,000 to 3,000 feet have developed
over the KOMA terminal within the last few hours. Expecting
these to remain in VFR with a low 10% chance ceilings could
briefly transition to MVFR. Model guidance is in agreement that
a band of showers and an isolated storm will affect KOFK and
KLNK between 12z and 15z so have introduced TEMPO groups at
those respective locations. There is some uncertainty on how far
east this activity will track, so have left mentions out of KOMA
TAF (30% chance). Southeast winds become gusty at 20-25 kts by
the late morning and afternoon. Late in the period, will see a
line of storms move through from northwest to southeast along a
front. Have introduced a few FM groups with this issuance at all
three sites, but expect further refinements and adjustments to
timing. Storms could be severe with hail, strong winds of
50-60 kts, and heavy rainfall reducing visibilities to
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

621
FXUS63 KGID 300556
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated to scattered non-severe storms will
  occasionally pass through mainly eastern and southeast
  portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning. The best
  potential will peak thursday morning.

- An even more organized cluster of potentially strong to severe
  storms, will pass from northwest to southeast across the area
  between mainly 7PM and 1AM Thursday night.

- The strongest storms Thursday evening/night may bring
  damaging wind gusts up to 60-70MPH, hail up to the size of
  quarters and locally heavy rainfall.

- The next chance of precipitation (15-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night.

- Highs over the weekend will mainly range the 80s, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of next week (upper 80s and
  90s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026


Following the widespread thunder showers this morning, precipitation
chances have generally plummeted for the rest of the day (only 10-
30%; concentrated towards the far eastern and southern portions of
the area). The coverage of any overnight to Friday morning non-
severe storm activity, will primarily impact the eastern to
southeast half of the area (mainly areas east/southeast of the Tri-
Cities). The HRRR and NAMNEST high-resolution models have recently
began to show increasing potential for a broader coverage of these
shower and weak thunderstorms during the the Thursday AM period,
mainly across eastern Nebraska and central and eastern Kansas.
Though precipitation totals are not expected to surpass this
morning`s amounts, locally up to just over 1" of rainfall may be
possible in places through the morning. The better storm potential,
however, will not come until the evening hours.

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the northern
Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity and cold air
advection to the region, helping to increase instability and
buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the area. In addition,
surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave disturbance, will help
organize an around 1006mb surface cyclone across north central
Nebraska and central South Dakota. As this cyclone strengthens
across the afternoon and evening hours, a surface cold front will
undergoing frontogenesis across central Nebraska/Kansas. This
feature will likely serve as the primary mechanism for evening
thunderstorm development, likely driving a line of convection across
a majority of the area from northwest to southeast between mainly
7PM and 1AM. Given the high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE),
steepening low-level lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of
bulk shear (EBWD); the potential for severe weather will remain. The
main concern would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as
60-70MPH. Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger
storms may still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up
to the size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the
full area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central
Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk
(level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the
southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH
during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper
80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the
forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation
chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the
weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet
stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be
expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25-
35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the
weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region.
Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back
down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies,
will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Complex TAF period given recent development of IFR/LIFR stratus,
along with potential for scattered thunderstorms this morning
and again this evening.

In the near term...satellite trends suggest, and recent sfc obs
confirm, some rapid development of IFR to LIFR stratus in the
EAR area. Short term guidance such as the HRRR are not handling
this well...but there are some indications of this threat on
recent RAP and NAMNest runs. These models expand the stratus
this morning and persist it all the way through 15-17Z. As such,
have deteriorated the TAFs quite significantly with this update,
and have the stratus expanding into GRI by around 09Z. In
addition to the stratus, there`s also the potential for
scattered elevated convection and brief heavy downpours. Models
don`t have as much coverage as last night, so tough to pin down
a specific few hour time period. Therefore, have opted to
continue the PROB30 group and will amend to TEMPO once
development appears more imminent.

Stratus should gradually lift and scatter through the morning,
but may not return to VFR until around midday. The next chance
for storms look to arrive along a front in the 01Z to 06Z (Fri)
time frame. This activity could contain some gusty winds.

Non-thunderstorm winds will be out of the SE throughout the
period, becoming a bit breezy this afternoon with gusts around
20kt. A wind shift to the NW is likely Thursday night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion