Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

789
FXUS63 KOAX 192336
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
536 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow, heavy at times, overspreading area today into this
  evening. Plan for difficult travel due to near-zero visibility
  and snow-covered roads, especially from late this afternoon
  into tonight.

- Highest accumulations of up to 4-7" are forecast along a line
  from Albion and Columbus through Fremont, the northern Omaha
  metro and Blair to Harlan, Iowa. Amounts are expected to
  decrease with northward and southward extent away from that
  line.

- Additional light snow is possible (20-40% PoPs) Friday night
  in southeast Nebraska with only minor accumulations expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Rest of today and tonight:

Mid-morning water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough
moving through central NE with an associated belt of forcing
for ascent beginning to overspread our area. Much of the initial
lift will go into top-down saturation of an initially dry low-
level air mass. We are starting to see some light snow in the
northwest part of our area (Albion and Neligh vicinities) with
the snow steadily spreading east across the area through the
remainder of today. The 12z high-resolution models still vary to
some extent with the axis of heaviest snowfall, but the general
consensus is a slight northward shift from previous model runs.
Steep mid-level lapse rates evident on the 12z TOP sounding
will support some upright convective development, especially
from near/just north of the Omaha metro into southwest IA this
afternoon, where some sleet and a few lightning strikes are
possible. Highest snow rates approaching 1"/hr are most probable
from 4-8 PM in those same locations.

This forecast update will indicate a slight northward shift in
the heavy-snow axis (4-7" accumulations), generally from Albion
and Columbus through Fremont, the northern Omaha metro/Blair to
Harlan, IA. Accordingly, Shelby County has been added to the
Winter Storm Warning. As we have been messaging, travel will be
difficult in those areas later this afternoon into tonight due
to near-zero visibilities and snow-covered roads.

The snow is expected to taper off from west-to-east across the
area tonight.

In regard to temperatures, we have lowered readings today owing
to the persistent low-level cold advection occurring to the
north of a surface low currently located just west of Kansas
City.


Friday through Monday:

It will remain cool this period with highs mainly in the 30s.
This is especially the case in areas that receive higher
snowfall accumulation. The models continue to indicate the
potential for some light snow Friday night (20-40% PoPs) in
southeast NE with only a minor accumulation possible.


Tuesday and Wednesday:

The 12z global models indicate the development of zonal flow
aloft, which will support a warmer, low-level pattern with
highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are solidly in place at all three
terminals to start the period, with heavy snow falling over the
next 6 hours. In addition to the snow, there is a 20% chance for
some lightning activity near KOMA, but confidence in that
occurring is not high enough at this time. Expect more sporadic
restrictions at KOFK, while KLNK and KOMA stay more consistent
with low-end visibilities and ceilings, driven by the snowfall
and winds gusting to 25-30 kts. As snow starts to taper around
03z, ceilings will be the first to improve, followed by
visibilities that pushing into MVFR, then VFR territory by
06-09z overnight. From there, VFR conditions will hold with
winds out of the northwest at less than 10 kts through the
remainder of the forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ015-033-
     034-065-066-068.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ043>045-
     050>053-067.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     NEZ016>018-031-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ030-042.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ043-080-
     090.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ055-056-069-
     079.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

425
FXUS63 KGID 200023
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing winter storm: BY FAR the main story is the ongoing
  winter storm...with any snowfall of 3+" snow focused within
  counties along/especially north of I-80...tapering down to
  little/no snow at all within counties along/south of the KS
  border. All of our counties along/north of I-80 are under
  either a Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory through
  Midnight.

- Light snow "event" Friday evening-early Sat AM: Although not
  nearly as significant/impactful, we don`t want folks caught
  totally off guard by another round of light snow likely
  focusing within counties along/especially SOUTH of I-80 mainly
  Friday evening- overnight. Accumulation only expected to be
  1" or less, and winds will be light (5-10 MPH tops).

- Beyond Saturday AM: The remainder of our 7-day forecast is dry
  at this time, although there are at least "hints" of some
  spotty rain potential around next Wednesday-Thursday.

- Temperature-wise: Although nothing in our 7-day is as cold as
  today, Friday-Monday will be "seasonably chilly" with highs
  mainly 30s-40s (and fresh snow could hold especially northern
  areas down in the 20s, especially Friday). Tues-Thurs then
  brings a decent warm-up...with highs 50s-60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

--  FORECAST CHANGES WORTH MENTIONING AND/OR ANY BIG PICTURE
  COMMENTS:

- If anything, high temps for Friday-Saturday have trended down
  slightly (likely a "good move" given the presence of fresh
  snow...especially north). Conversely, highs for Tues-Thurs
  have trended up a few degrees with most areas now aimed into
  the 60s most days. That being said, latest "raw" model
  data/guidance suggests we might be aiming a bit TOO warm
  (meaning we could end up more in the 50s than 60s...but still
  a decent warm-up nonetheless).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. Feb.26):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM (including a deep-
  dive into the ongoing winter storm):
Although snow got off to  a very slow start today due to dry
air (especially within affected counties along/east of Hwy 281),
snow has FINALLY started and/or intensified over the last few
hours within pretty much all of our Nebraska counties
along/north of Highway 6. The most intense, north- south
oriented band (roughly 15-20 miles wide) is currently
approaching the Highway 281 corridor from the west. Kudos to
preceding shifts for including I-80 counties in a Winter Weather
Advisory, as if anything this heavier band has "snuck" a touch
farther south than expected, and even counties just south of the
official Advisory (along Highway 6) could pick up a "quick
inch" along he southern fringes of this main band.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data clearly reveal a compact
shortwave trough tracking eastward through the heart of our
forecast area, with mid-level convergence/saturation maximized
within our Nebraska counties along/especially north of Highway
6...and much more limited saturation/lift targeting counties
along/especially south of the KS border, where little more than
flurries to a very light dusting is anticipated.

At the surface, we are well-northwest of the main low pressure
center (currently around 994 millibars over north central MO),
but a fairly tight pressure gradient between this low and a high
pressure center (around 1026 millibars) centered near the
eastern MT/Canadian border is still promoting modesly-strong
(albeit VERY GRADUALLY weakening) north-northwest winds across
our CWA...with sustained speeds currently 15-25 MPH/gusts mainly
25-35 MPH.

Temperature-wise, talk about a major change! Actual daytime
highs will end up between 17-27 degrees across most of our
forecast area (CWA)...some 30-40 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Adding in the winds, current wind chill values are mostly single
digits above zero.

As for winter weather "headlines":
Earlier today "upgraded" our row of Nebraska Highway 92 counties
to the Winter Storm Warning earlier issued for our far northern
counties (bringing our total number of warning counties up to
7). These counties are most favored to pick up a fairly
widespread 4-7". Meanwhile, a Winter Weather Advisory continues
for all of our counties along Interstate 80, where 1-3" will be
common. Our row of counties along Highway 6 (just south of the
Advisory) could arguably be placed under a "cheaper" Advisory to
account for the southern extent of the aforementioned heavier
band, but with total accumulation expected to top out no more
than 1-2" (at most), have opted to handle with a Special Weather
Statement (SPS) instead.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (snow gradually ends):
As already occurring within our far western CWA, snowfall
intensity will VERY GRADUALLY decrease from west-to-east this
evening as the mid-upper level forcing departs eastward.
However, at least light snow will continue for several more
hours within affected counties west of Highway 281, while
counties along/east of Highway 281 deal with at least 1-2 hours
of moderate-to-briefly heavy snow as the aforementioned, north-
south oriented "main band" pivots through the area.

Fortunately, winds will continue to SLOWLY decrease as the
evening wears on, and by 9 PM sustained speeds should be down to
more so 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-25 MPH...and only further decreasing
as the night goes on and the pressure gradient eases.

By Midnight, the vast majority of our CWA should either be
snow-free (especially west of Hwy 281) or at least down to non-
accumulating flurries, although our extreme northeast corner
(Polk County area) could see the "last gasp" of snow last
slightly beyond midnight. Even so, both the Warning/Advisory is
scheduled to expire at Midnight, and would be surprised if any
time-extensions are needed. As skies clear out overnight and
wind decrease, temps could take a pretty good tumble over the
deepest fresh snow, and although our current low temp forecast
is aimed from low-single digits (above zero) in our northwest to
the teens in our southeast...would not be surprised if some
spots dipped a bit colder.

Very late tonight into early Friday AM, wind chills will likely
drop to as cold as around -10 in our far northwest (especially
Valley/Sherman counties area), but this is still "safely" above
Advisory criteria of -20.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
Overall, this will be a good "cleanup" day, with surface high
pressure providing much lighter winds (mainly 5-10
MPH)...starting more northerly and turning more easterly in the
afternoon. Skies start the day mostly sunny, but
another/trailing disturbance approaching from the southwest will
bring in increasing clouds during the afternoon, and MAYBE some
light snow/flurries into our far west/southwest CWA by late
afternoon. High temps carry some uncertainty as we may not be
accounting enough for the cooling effects of fresh snow cover,
but all areas were nudged down at least slightly from
previous...currently aiming for mid-upper 20s north to mid-
upper 30s south.


- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT (next round of lighter snow):
Although it will not be nearly as significant as the ongoing
storm, the aforementioned weaker upper wave will track
primarily across KS over the course of the evening-overnight.
Models still vary quite a bit on the "finer details", but a
broad shield of fairly light snow is expected to fall across
counties mainly along/especially SOUTH of Interstate 80...with
accumulations mainly at-or-below 1". Given the minimal amounts
and expected light winds, this system would really have to
"trend up" over the next 24 hours to be worthy of a Winter
Weather Advisory, but will at least continue to highlight in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Low temps mainly 10-20
degrees...held up by expected cloud cover. However, if clouds
end up being more minimal in our north...temps could really
tumble below current forecast values.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
At least for now, we have a dry forecast from sunrise Saturday
onward, although there are "hints" that some pesky flurries
could linger into the first part of the day from the departing
system. Otherwise though, the weekend looks "seasonably chilly"
but dry, with the main feature being a dry cold frontal passage
late Sat night-Sunday that will bring some breezy north winds.
High temps both days are generally aimed 30s north to 40s south,
but again we could be aiming a bit too warm depending on
lingering snow cover effects.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Broad mid-upper level ridging will overspread the Plains. In
response, the low levels will undergo warm air advection as
winds turn southerly Monday and more southwesterly Tuesday.
There is high confidence in a big warm-up from Monday into
Tuesday...but just how much so is yet to be soon as we MIGHT be
aiming a bit too warm for especially Tuesday. For now though, we
are officially calling for mainly 40s Monday and mainly mid-
upper 60s Tuesday.


- WEDNESDAY-THURDAY:
A dry forecast continues, although the latest ECMWF/GFS at least
"hint" that a weak disturbance or two will pass through from
northwest-to-southeast, possibly sparking some limited rain
chances in later forecasts. Like Tuesday, it`s quite possible
that we`ve gone a bit TOO warm on expected highs, but for now
calling for mainly low-mid 60s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Although the overall-heaviest snow band has since vacated off to
the east over the last 1-2 hours, KGRI/KEAR will continue seeing
steady light snow for the next 3-4 hours into the evening before
snow ends. As long as snow continues, MVFR ceiling and IFR-to-
MVFR visibility will persist, with total snow accumulation
likely ended up roughly around 2 inches. Although would not be
surprised to see an MVFR ceiling linger a bit beyond the end of
falling snow, will aim for a return to no worse than low-end VFR
ceiling by 03Z KEAR/04Z KGRI. Once VFR returns, high confidence
is lingers through the remainder of the period, with mainly
clear skies late tonight into much of Friday daytime, before
mid-level clouds return mid-late afternoon.

As for winds, although still somewhat breezy out of the north-
northwest right out of the gate this evening (sustained speeds
around 15KT/gusts 20+KT), there will be a VERY GRADUAL
decrease as the night wears on, with sustained speeds down to
to no more than 10-15 KT out of the west-northwest later
tonight, and then mainly 10KT-or-less during the day tomorrow as
direction generally transitions from northwesterly much of the
day to more easterly late in the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ039>041-
     046>049.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     NEZ060>064.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion