Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

777
FXUS63 KOAX 032337
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
537 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may redevelop overnight in northeast Nebraska.

- Cloudy conditions and occasional chances for precip continue
  through much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms
  Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Overcast skies continue across the CWA this afternoon with
temperatures stuck spinning their wheels in the low 40s. Patchy
fog this morning has lifted and visibility has improved to over
5 miles in most instances.

A CONUS view of IR satellite shows that shortwave trof over the
PACNW has meandered southwest over the past 24 hours and is now
near Glenwood Springs, CO. This feature will keep minor precip
chances in our southern forecast area over the next 30 hours as
it continues southeast. Ahead of the H5 low, we`ve got quasi-
zonal flow in the sub- tropical jet.

AM drizzle wrapped up with the attenuation of low-level lapse
rates. Expect chances to increase again after midnight tonight
as mid-levels cool and lapse rates ramp back up. Patchy fog may
redevelop with best chances where skies clear in northeast
Nebraska.

Drizzle is possible along and south of I-80 between midnight
and noon Wednesday. Probability will remain near 20%. I have
changed the dominating precip type from stratiform rain/drizzle
to rain showers for Wednesday afternoon and evening. PoPs peak
on Wednesday evening as the shortwave passes through the KC
metro area. Only points east of a line from Harlan to Beatrice
have a better than 20% chance of a rain shower.

.THURSDAY...

The area will be dry by sunrise and a few rays of sunshine will
be welcomed as they`ll be uncommon this week. The mostly sunny
skies and southerly winds should help temps make an appreciable
jump from Tuesday and Wednesday`s 50s to mid- to upper-60s by
Thursday afternoon.

As the Wednesday shortwave ejects east, an amplified trof will
approach from the west. As it crosses the Rockies on Thursday
night, a lee-side sfc low will develop in the Denver area and
sweep northwest bringing high-confidence POPs by late Thursday
night. QPF values look notable, too. NBM probabilities suggest
a 90% chance of 1/2"or more of QPF in western Iowa to closer to
50% for the CWA`s western counties (Antelope, Boone,
Jefferson). With an nocturnal LLJ and some very high mid-level
lapse rates, the threat for severe weather looks to be a slight
hail threat from elevated storms overnight Thursday night
(we`re `outlooked` in day 3).

With the cloud cover and brisk southerly flow, temps will hold
in the 40s and 50s overnight. Expect a close call with setting
warm record minimum temps Friday morning.

.FRIDAY...

Friday will be even warmer if the timing and locations of the
fronts work out as anticipated. Current forecast is calling for
temps to peak in the lower to mid-70s along the Missouri state
line. Another sfc low will eject from the positively titled
trof out west. Out of the lee of the Rockies, it`ll work along
the baroclinic zone, sweeping northeast on Friday afternoon.
Severe weather is looking increasingly likely in the warm
sector. The heart of the warm sector may end up just southeast
of this CWA, although there`s plenty of time for the forecast to
be adjusted. As the threat of the afternoon/evening severe
weather pushes east, a cold front will crash in from the north
bringing much cooler conditions for the weekend and some post-
frontal precip.

.THE WEEKEND...

Temps slip back into the 50s for Saturday as drier NW flow
builds in behind the departing system. Quieter weather may be in
store for next week as all three global deterministic models
suggest the western trof eventually cuts off and blocks H5 flow
for the western Corn Belt. Temps are anticipated to climb under
the dry regime.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR ceilings are widespread this evening, with KOFK seeing
cloud bases still holding above FL020 for a few hours early in
the TAF period. All TAF sites are set to head for IFR ceilings
overnight, and short term models are not quite as sure that
we`ll see widespread drizzle/mist this time around so we`ve
shortened the wind in the latest set of TAFs. Nevertheless,
MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions are possible beginning at
09z and could last as long as 12/13z before improvements arrive.
From there, clouds will slowly lift and eventually scatter out
by the afternoon hours into the early evening, in favor of VFR
conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

307
FXUS63 KGID 040012
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This evening/tonight bring continued chances for some
  isolated/scattered sprinkles or light showers, mainly across
  portions of south central NE. Can`t rule out some patchy fog
  late tonight-Wed AM, at this point not expecting widespread
  dense fog.

- Precipitation chances for Wed-Wed evening have trended down,
  forecast currently just has some 20 percent chances across
  SErn portions of the forecast area. Dry conditions expected
  through at least the first half of the day on Thursday.

- A stronger upper level system brings increasing chances for
  rain and thunderstorms to the area late in the day Thursday,
  continuing on into the evening/overnight hours. There will be
  the potential for some storms to be strong-severe, with the
  entire forecast area currently included in the SPC Day 3
  Marginal Risk area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been an overall quiet day across the forecast area, with
satellite imagery showing very different sky cover from one
end to the other...across the west seeing mostly sunny skies, in
central and especially eastern areas, socked in with low level
stratus. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show an
area of low pressure gradually working its way across northern
CO, with a mid-upper level trough axis extending east-northeast
through NE up toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, the
forecast area is sitting between broad high pressure spread
across portions of the Central Plains up into the Great Lakes
region and deepening low pressure over the TX
panhandle...bringing more NNErly winds to the forecast area,
with speeds have mainly been 10MPH or less. Not surprisingly,
the stubborn cloud cover hasn`t done any favors to temperatures,
keeping those areas mainly in the mid 40s...vs further west in
the sun have reach into the 50s and even some low 60s.

The rest of today on into tonight...models are in good agreement
showing that CO upper low continuing to slide east, main
question will be with whether or not we see any precipitation.
Most models backed off on QPF...but a few models, including some
hi-res, still show the potential for at least some
isolated/scattered sprinkles or showers lingering this evening
and tonight. These chances are mainly focused across portions of
south central NE...and not expecting any notable amounts out of
anything that does fall. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy
skies...with a return of light/variable winds as a surface ridge
axis pushes south through the area. Not out of the question
that some patchy fog could develop later tonight with those
light winds, most models currently showing visibilities not
dropping as low as this morning.

Mid to late work week...

Looking at Wednesday, overall precipitation chances backed off,
with small chances (20 percent) now just confined to SErn
portions of the forecast area. Models remain in good agreement
showing that upper level disturbance current over CO continuing
to slide east right through the heart of the area...but keep the
better precip chances to our SSE. Some models suggest the 20
percent chances currently in the forecast are too much...if that
trend holds, completely removing PoPs is not out of the
question. Winds expected to remain on the lighter side, starting
out the day variable, turning more southerly through the
afternoon ahead of deepening low pressure across the High
Plains. Sky cover is once again expected to diminish from west
to east...but similar to today, confidence in the exact timing
of the clearing is not high. Highs range from the mid 50s in the
east to lower 60s in the west...confidence again lower in the
east due to uncertainty with the cloud cover.

Expecting at least the first half of the day on Thursday to be
dry, potentially most of the day. Precipitation chances will
be on the increase during the afternoon hours, with the overall
best chances looking to be after 00Z. Models showing another
upper level low pressure system working its way into the Pac NW
during the day on Wednesday, digging south with time, ending up
in the Desert SW region by the end of the day on Thursday.
During the evening/overnight hours, larger scale lift is picking
up ahead of this upper level troughing, aided by increasing
moisture/warm advection pushing north thanks to a strengthening
southerly low- level jet. These are not just better chances for
rain, but thunderstorms as well...and with models showing more
instability also working its way in from the south and decent
deep layer shear, some of these storms being on the strong to
severe side are not out of the question. The entire forecast
area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area (main
concern being hail), but models today have trended that better
potential across roughly the SErn half of the forecast
area...will see how things trend over the next 2 days. Outside
of the rain/storm chances increasing through the day, expecting
breezy southerly winds to develop as surface low pressure
deepens over eastern CO...with highs climbing into the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Precip chances Thursday-Thursday night are tied to lift out
ahead of the main upper level system...chances in the forecast
for Friday are tied to the passage of that system itself.
Confidence in chances through Friday night are not high...as
there are some notable differences between models with the
strength of the system and exactly where it tracks. Some keep it
a more closed system, tracking it a touch further NW and
potentially bringing a dry slot to the forecast area, resulting
in little precip...others are more open, tracking more over the
area and bringing better chances. The accompanying surface cold
front is also working its way through the region on Friday, not
doing any favors for confidence in high temperatures...current
forecast has 50s in the NW to near 70 in the SE.

This weekend and on...

Forecast for this weekend into the start of the new work week is
dry, with models showing northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of
Friday`s system turning more zonal with time. The `coolest` day
of this period is Saturday, with highs mainly in the
mid-60s...with forecast highs climbing into the 70s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence the vast majority of the period features either
an MVFR/IFR ceiling. At least a few hours of MVFR visibility
(perhaps lower?) also seems fairly probable in at least light
fog, but this is of lower confidence. As for winds, they will be
be negligible throughout the period, with sustained speeds
largely at-or-below 8KT. Direction is best described as
variable much of the time, but will generally transition from
northeasterly right away this evening...to southerly late in the
period Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation-wise, unless some
light drizzle manages to develop from the low stratus (currently
seems unlikely), this is an otherwise high-confidence dry
period.

- Ceiling/visibility details:
- Ceiling:
Right out of the gate this evening, KGRI is under persistent
MVFR stratus, while KEAR has temporarily cleared out. However,
satellite imagery confirms that the back edge of this MVFR deck
is merely 10-12 miles east of KEAR, and is expected to push
back overhead from east-to-west probably within the next few
hours (currently have prevailing MVFR by 02Z). Then, overnight
into Wednesday morning, ceiling is expected to lower to IFR and
have prevailing IFR at KEAR 06-16Z/KGRI 09-17Z. Probably cannot
rule out at least brief LIFR (especially KEAR), but this is not
currently in TAFs given lower confidence. Through the late
morning and early-mid afternoon hours, ceiling should first lift
to MVFR (tentatively aimed 16Z KEAR/17Z KGRI)...then scatter
out as skies clear (tentatively aimed 19Z KEAR/20Z KGRI).

- Visibility:
This is of lower confidence than ceiling, as there is some
uncertainty regarding how much fog might accompany the
aforementioned low ceiling. For now, kept a fairly optimistic
approach with no worse than prevailing MVFR (06-16Z KEAR/09-17Z
KGRI), but there are hints (especially at KEAR) that it could
drop to at least IFR at least briefly (if this were to occur, it
would be most favored a few hours either side of 12Z). Observational
trends will be monitored closely.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion