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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


190
FXUS63 KOAX 131732
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.Today and Tonight:

A mid/upper-level cyclone over the upper MS Valley early this
morning will edge slowly east in response to the amplification of
an upstream trough across the interior West. In the low levels, a
weakening pressure gradient will be offset by the diurnal
steepening of lapse rates to yield breezy conditions across the
northern half of our area today, where wind gusts of 30-35 mph
are possible. Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper
40s near the SD border where some clouds could linger, to mid to
upper 50s over southeast NE and southwest IA. And while
temperatures will remain below seasonal normals, the gusty winds
in conjunction with an ambient, dry air mass will promote pockets
of high to very high rangeland fire danger this afternoon.

A surface ridge will strengthen over the mid MO Valley tonight,
resulting in decreasing winds and mostly clear skies. Those
conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s over
northeast NE and west-central IA with 30-33F possible south of
I-80. We are aware that some orchards in southeast NE and
southwest IA are ahead of schedule with the fruit-tree blossoms
now susceptible to freezing temperatures. Therefore, a freeze
warning may need to be considered for the area at some point
today.

.Wednesday and Thursday:

The above-mentioned, western U.S. trough is forecast to track from
the Great Basin into the central Rockies with a downstream ridge
amplifying over the Great Plains. In the low levels, persistent
surface ridging will maintain a cool, Canadian air mass over the
region with highs in the 50s.

.Thursday night into Friday night:

The central Rockies disturbance is forecast to track east through
the central Plains and mid/lower MO Valley, supporting a chance
of rain. Highest rainfall amounts (i.e., less than a quarter inch)
are currently expected over southeast NE.

This weekend into early next week:

The 00z global models advertise the continued presence of a mid-
level trough over the central U.S. into early next week. That
scenario would translate to below-normal afternoon temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

VFR criteria will prevail for the TAF period. Primary forecast
concern is strong northwest winds. Strongest winds will be in
northeast Nebraska where gusts up to 30 kts are expected. Weaker
gusts are expected at KOMA and KLNK. Winds expected to diminish
quickly after 01Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Fajman

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


000
FXUS63 KGID 131704
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

The forecast reflects several days of cooler temps and decent rain
chances Thursday night through Friday night.

Patternwise...a couple of closed upper low pressure systems
dominated the weather pattern across the northern half of the
CONUS with one located around the Great Basin area and another in
the Upper Midwest. Our region remains in between the systems in a
rather cool, dry pattern. Temps today will below seasonal
normals...averaging in the 50s for highs and as mixing deepens
during the day northwest wind gusts will average 20-30 mph. Then
tonight is shaping up to be quite chilly with low temps forecast
below the freezing mark...and we aren`t looking for much change in
the cooler days and colder nights for the majority of the forecast
period.

The eastern upper low reaches Michigan on Wednesday while the
western system edges farther south into Nevada. Our area will be in
between the systems in a still cool regime. Light precip is possible
to our west mainly along the front range/high plains aided by
upslope flow, but precip just doesn`t look like it`ll get this far
east yet and have kept the forecast dry.

Models have been rather consistent with our best chances for rain
arriving in the Thursday night through Friday night time frame as
the western upper low begins to emerge from the Rockies and crosses
the Central Plains. Precipitation type primarily favors a cold rain
but we could see a rain/snow mix or brief change to snow in our
western counties. Through Thursday night which doesn`t encompass the
entire system yet, liquid precip amounts are forecast to range from
a few hundredths of an inch...to near one half inch
(east/west)...so look for updates on potential precip amounts in
upcoming forecasts. Attm if we see a transition to snow in our
northwest zones, amounts are expected to be light and mainly
confined to elevated or grassy surfaces.

The operational ECMWF is a little faster with the progression of the
late week system than the GFS and the GFS holds onto precip
longer into Saturday. Have not deviated from the ensemble blend
and have maintained a dry forecast for the weekend. Sunday should
see a slight warming trend behind the departing trough and ahead
of another system translating towards the Northern Plains from
Canada. If model trends hold, this next system would send another
cold front across our region Monday and could produce some precip,
but given the latter part of the forecast time frame will monitor
trends and refine details as things get closer.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep WNW winds
over the area during the TAF period. Winds will gust into the low
20s this afternoon and will taper down into the single digits
this evening. Mid and high clouds are forecast through the
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fay
AVIATION...Beda

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion