Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

298
FXUS63 KOAX 100510
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1210 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and a few storms expected across
  eastern Nebraska early this morning (15-30% chance).

- A few scattered showers and storms linger into Friday
  afternoon (15-30% chance) over the area. Some storms could
  produce gusty winds or small hail.

- Stretch of hot and dry weather starts Saturday into much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective analysis shows a well defined H5 shortwave trof
over the Panhandle region into central Nebraska. Broad ascent from
the feature combined with sfc convergence along a boundary has led
to convection developing along a line from near Ainsworth to North
Platte to Cambridge, Nebraska. Latest CAM suite suggest convection
largely decreasing in intensity after 10z as it enters our
western areas with just some lingering scattered showers and
isolated storms early this morning. While some instability of
500 to 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE lingers, 0-6 km bulk shear ranging
from 20-25 kts should largely limit any severe threat over the
area early this morning. PoPs remain at 15 to 30% for most of
eastern Nebraska this morning.

As we head into Friday afternoon and evening, should still see some
lingering showers and storms across most of the forecast area as the
H5 wave lingers (15-30%). Some CAMs highlight convection developing
in far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa likely driven by both
the wave and a remnant MCV associated from the previous evening`s
MCS in Kansas. The 0-6 km bulk shear appears best in this
corridor at 30-35 kts, while MLCAPE ranges from 700-1,000 J/kg.
So, don`t be surprised if a few strong storms with gusty
winds/hail develop in this area. For the remainder of the area,
some pop up showers or isolated storms may develop in the
afternoon. A few of these could produce gusty winds as they
collapse given the low level dry air/high cloud bases seen from
BUFKIT soundings, but overall the severe threat with these
appears very limited. Showers and storms should largely
dissipate after 03z. Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s
with a few 90s along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Lows cool
to the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday will see dry conditions as a channel of sfc high pressure
builds into the Northern Plains. Highs warm to the upper 80s to low
90s and will be the start to a warming trend for the rest of the 7
day forecast.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The hot temperatures will largely dominate the long term forecast
period. Model guidance is in really good agreement of a 594dam ridge
building over much of the Central and Northern Plains areas.
Temperatures warm to the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday,
areawide 90s Tuesday, and mid to upper 90s Wednesday into
Thursday. Areas in our far northwest up in Knox and Cedar
counties may start to flirt with the 100F degree mark as early
as Sunday. Heat indices for most locations should range from the
low to mid 90s through at least Tuesday, before increasing
slightly to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the long term
period.

The ridge should largely help suppress any rain chances too so
expect dry weather during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions and light and variable winds begin the period. A
large complex of storms is slowly moving east across central
Kansas and Nebraska tonight. Increasing high cloud cover will
overspread the region with a few low-level clouds near FL045.
Winds will generally become easterly overnight. Between 10-12Z
early Friday morning the remnants of the storm complex enters
the region. Current forecast guidance maintains a few showers
and isolated storms with this, mainly over southeast Nebraska.
The overall thunderstorm threat is low (20%), but confidence is
growing in scattered rain showers near LNK during the morning
hours. Conditions are expected to remain VFR with ceilings near
FL040 and generally 6SM or great visibility within any rain
showers. Heading into Friday afternoon, a low chance (15-30%) of
additional storms over the area is anticipated. Confidence in
aviation impacts is low at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

438
FXUS63 KGID 100537
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms, once again moving in from the west (arriving between
  10PM and 1AM), could bring a few gusty winds and small hail to
  mainly west/southwest portions of the area. The overall severe
  threat will be limited.

- Showers with a few embedded storms may persist across a few
  locations Friday morning to early afternoon.

- Temperatures will soon be on a gradual rise over the next
  several days with an at least 4+ day streak of 90+ degree
  highs expected next week.

- No precipitation chances lie anywhere in the forecast past
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026


The Main Story Tonight: Storms Rolling in from the West...

The main story of the day will be the chance for yet another round
of storms late tonight into Friday morning. A weak shortwave
disturbance popping out of the Rockies today has already started to
stir up a cluster of cumulus and scattered storms across eastern
Wyoming/Colorado. Though a few of these storms are expected to
become severe as they cross through the rest of eastern Colorado and
the Nebraska Panhandle, given the time of arrival of these storms
(arriving  between 10PM-1AM), there is some question to how much
energy/momentum may actually be left in the tank. The High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have been fairly
consistent in portraying these storms to be in the stage of decay as
they cross into the South Central Nebraska / North Central Kansas
region.

Generally these storm will be crossing into a less favorable
environment, though 1,5000-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE as well as 20-35kt
deep layer shear may still be just supportive enough for
maintaining one or two stronger to marginally severe storms. IF any
storm is able to stay severe, the main threats would be for gusty
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60MPH with a few areas of hail possible
(up to quarter sized). The areas that would be the most susceptible
for these stronger storms wold be areas west of HWY-183 in Nebraska
as well as a few north central Kansas locations. The Storm
Prediction Center has kept a Marginal risk of severe weather (level
1 of 5) for locations west of a line from Cozad to Alma in Nebraska
and down to Beloit in Kansas. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) clips
southwest portions of Rooks and Osborne counties.

Though the severe threat will be fast to diminish tonight, a few
weak thunderstorms embedded within a larger array of showers will
still be expected to linger across a few portions of the area, to
potentially as late as noon on Friday. The overall best potential
for precipitation (50-80% chances) will be concentrated west and
southwest of the Tri-Cities with 20-50% chances reserved for the
remainder of the area (greatest chances towards the southwest). Most
locations should only expect to see 0.1-0.5" of precipitation with a
few more localized amounts up to 1" possible.


The Main Story Next Week: Warming Temperatures & Drier Conditions

Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, temperatures have
been knocked down by around 5-10 degrees for today. The "coolest"
day within the next week should fall Friday as highs are forecast to
spread the low to mid 80s. After Friday, highs will likely take a
multi-day climb with an at least 5+ day streak of 90+ degree heat on
the way for next week. This streak of increasingly warmer
temperatures will become the main story for next week.

This warm up will be primarily driven by a building ridge across
much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions,
additionally helping to snuff out most precipitation chances in the
process. The Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) now has a relatively
strong agreement in retaining these warm and dry conditions for much
of if not all of next week. The latest GFS/ECMWF models show an
upper-level rex block (high pressure center north of lower pressure
center) forming overtop of the Central Plains during the middle of
next week. If this pattern achieves, persisting heat (mainly highs
in the 90s) will be favored to stick around the area. There is still
some uncertainty to how extreme this heat may become. The Weather
Prediction Center, however, is beginning to highlight the potential
for extreme heat next weekend (mainly on the 17th and 18th) on their
extended hazard outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and thunderstorms are approaching the area from the west
and are expected to impact the terminals between 06z and 12z.
More isolated showers and storms are possible after 12z into the
afternoon hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop/move into
the area with the convection and linger into the mid to late
morning hours. Winds will mostly be light and variable but are
expected to range from the east to south from 21z to 06z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion