Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

729
FXUS63 KOAX 211854
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
154 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to moderate chances (30-60%) of non-severe thunderstorms
  across portions of northeast Nebraska tonight.

- Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend. A marginal risk of severe storms (5-14%) exists
  for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. The best chance of
  severe weather returns next weekend.

- Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal through
  the Friday, with high temperatures in the 70s and lows from
  the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Quasi-zonal short-wave flow will remain across the central part
of the country through the week, though the forecast area
generally will remain under the influence of the cyclonic shear
side of a semi-persistent large scale trough across the eastern
U.S. An active polar jet will at times be amplified by sub-
tropical jet to produce periodic chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The aforementioned large scale trough will keep
overall heights lower than normal through the week, allowing for
cooler than normal (5-10 degrees F) temperatures.

Tonight...Stratus will remain semi-persistent across the
forecast area tonight as a stream of lower tropospheric moisture
remains across the region along with east-northeast low level
flow. Where clouds scattered tonight, upslope flow could produce
fog, but left out of forecast for now. A shortwave moving out
of Wyoming will help to activate storms across the high plains,
which will advect into the northeast Nebraska by mid- evening.
The CAMS and synoptic models are consistent in moving the storms
eastward thus used a HREF/NBM blend for PoPs. Currently these
storms are not expected to be severe due to limited instability.

Monday...Sensible weather will overall be pleasant with high
surface pressure encroaching from the northeast. Skies will
become partly cloudy, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures,
with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A more potent shortwave dropping
southeast out of Alberta will induce lee side cyclogenesis and
moves a cold front through the central plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strengthening southerly flow will draw deeper
moisture into the region and increase instability. Coupled with
bulk shear values 45-55kts, better chances of severe storms will
return, with SPC currently highlighting a marginal risk for the
area. Given recent heavy rains, WPC also is highlighting a
marginal risk of flooding/flash flooding due to excessive
rainfall.

Thursday through Friday...The convection will move the
aforementioned cold front into the southern plains and lower
Mississippi Valley, but then becomes quasi-stationary as the
shortwave flow again becames more zonal. EC ENS are more
agressive in pushing the boundary further south than the GFS,
which will play a role in whether southern portions of the
forecast area will experience persistent low chance (15-30%)
chance of showers and storms Thursday-Friday.

Saturday into Sunday...A deeper long wave trough dives into the
Pacific Northwest Saturday into Sunday. The net effect will be
increasing low level, moist and warm flow and better chances for
more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A large area of IFR/MVFR stratus continues to envelop the
forecast area early this afternoon. The latest satellite imagery
shows some thinning of the clouds as successive gravity waves
ripple southwest across the region. NBM and HREF indicate
improving conditions for KOMA by 21-22z with drier air
entrainment H8-H5. A more persistent fetch of near saturated
flow persists across southern Iowa into southern and northeast
thus MVFR cigs may remain at KLNK and KOFK through Monday
morning. NBM output is the most pessimisstic with IFR conditions
returning to both KLNK and KOFK between 10z-12z. Similarly, NBM
showing MVFR cigs redeveloping at KOMA between 08-11z.

An additional aviation impact of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms (15-30%) at KOFK exists from 03z-07z, with
isolated showers lingering through 10z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

371
FXUS63 KGID 211802
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
102 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rain and storms expected overnight. Severe storms
  are not likely but still possible (20% chance).

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the whole forecast area
  until 7 AM Sunday.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Rain and storms continue across portions of the area with most of
the previous storms now out of the forecast area. Additional storms
are developing to the west of the area and moving eastward. These
storms are mainly across the northern half of Nebraska. Additional
storm development may occur across southern portions of Nebraska.
There is some storms across northwest Kansas that are moving
eastward as well. The area most likely to see more storms this
evening and tonight is from along I-80 and northward. Although all
areas of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas have at
least a 50% chance of additional rain and/or storms this evening and
tonight. The severe weather threat is diminishing; however, an
isolated strong to severe storm is still possible. Rain and storms
will exit the area from west to east with the remainder of the
convection likely exiting the area around sunrise tomorrow. The
whole forecast area remains in a Flood Watch until 7 AM. Many areas
have already received around 3 to 4+ inches of rainfall so any
additional rain in these areas will likely cause flooding
issues. Areas that have not received much or any rainfall will
likely receive some overnight. Low temperatures overnight are
expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

Some additional showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm may
develop (around a 15% to 30% chance) Sunday morning and afternoon
across portions of the area. Storm chances increase Sunday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere becomes more unstable (areas of CAPE
above 2,000 J/kg, 0 to 6 km wind shear of around 30 to 50 knots, and
an increase of upper lift as a shortwave passes overhead). Models
are showing storms moving in from the west Sunday evening. The
forecast area is in a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to slight (level 2
out of 5) severe weather risk for Sunday afternoon and evening. The
greatest risk will be in western and southern portions of the
forecast area. Large hail (up to ping pong ball size), wind gusts up
to 60 MPH, and localized flooding (rain falling over already
saturated soils) will be possible. High temperatures Sunday are
expected to mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

-- QUICK UP FRONT "ADMIN NOTE":
Given earlier and upcoming severe storm/hydro concerns, the
remainder of this discussion will be HEAVILY weighted on just
these next 24-30 hours or so.


-- SHORTER TERM FOCUS SOLELY ON THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS (through
 Sunday evening):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM:
As was strongly suggested by higher-res models runs from 24
hours ago (even though some later runs incorrectly "backed off"
somewhat), much of the daytime hours featured a slow-moving
complex of elevated strong to marginally-severe storms, that
initiated in a north-northwest to south-southeast axis across
our western CWA earlier this morning, then gradually/slowly
expanded east as the day went on, while mostly ending except for
limited redevelopment along its western flank. This was a
classic recipe for marginally-severe hail (up to quarter size),
but more so localized heavy rain...with a roughly 20-30 mile
stripe across the heart of our Nebraska CWA realizing a solid
1.50-3.50".

As of this writing, only weak storms are ongoing within some of
our far northern/eastern counties, while slightly west of our
CWA, robust and more surface-based severe storms have erupted
over southwest NE/northwest KS, in a potent environment
characterized by at least 1500-2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and
around 50KT of effective shear. Meanwhile, our "silver lining"
to having so much daytime convection is that most of our CWA is
either relatively stable in the lower levels (or at least still
plenty capped), with the vast majority of available CAPE of the
elevated variety...largely muting any kind of shorter term
threat for damaging winds/tornadoes...but keeping the same
marginally-severe hail and heavy rain concerns in play.

Due to convection, quite a range in daytime high temps today,
from only 60s north...to low-mid 80s south.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Leaning heavily on higher-res models (particularly HRRR/RAP),
while there is little doubt that widespread rain/thunderstorms
will overtake our entire CWA with many areas seeing 2+ rounds of
storms or storm complexes (due to an upper disturbance impinging
upon at least modest instability, increasing low level jet later
tonight, etc.), there are still question marks about just HOW
SEVERE our storms might be. In short, expect the MAJORITY of
severe storm potential (especially damaging winds/possible QLCS
tornadoes) to target counties along/especially south of the KS
border...where the airmass is least contaminated by earlier-day
convection. Especially between 7 PM-Midnight, a storm
complex/possible mesoscale convective system (MCS) is most
favored to track east-southeastward across our southern CWA,
while more elevated activity develops across our north. Post-
midnight, another complex of storms (probably at least slightly
elevated?) could track southeastward through much of our
CWA...evolving from separate severe storm development that will
occur over northwest NE and the Panhandle.

Finally, between 5-7 AM Sunday, the back end of any widespread
storms are expected to clear out of our far southern/southeast
counties.


- MOST OF SUNDAY DAYTIME (through around 4 PM):
In the wake of widespread overnight convection, MOST of the day
is likely dry/thunderstorm free with an airmass slow to
"recover". Surface winds will also turn northerly in response to
the main surface low tracking to our south mainly across central
KS. Afternoon high temps aimed from low-mid 70s north to low 80s
south and far southwest.


- LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (after 4/5 PM):
Despite a less concerning setup than this evening-overnight, at
least isolated to perhaps scattered storm development is likely
as an upper disturbance dropping south into northern NE
interacts with a (by-now) more destabilized airmass featuring at
least 1000-2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 40-50KT of deep layer
shear. While coverage will likely be fairly limited, a few
severe storms with mainly a hail/wind threat appear
probable...likely most favoring our northern/western counties
(versus our eastern/southern counties). However, this Sunday
threat will be better analyzed once we get through tonight`s
round of more widepsread convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings:

The probably most trickiest element in today`s forecast would
be the ceiling forecast. Broken to overcast skies are almost
guaranteed to remain in place for KGRI (0-3 hour window of
scattered bases possible at KEAR). The ceiling heights,
however, will not be as straight froward as the potential for a
few thunderstorms between mainly 23-9z could mess things up. In
general, ceiling will lift through the day up to MVFR
classifications (potentially a 0-3 hour window of VFR bases
near 4,000ft at KEAR between 23-3z). Bases after 0z, however,
will then be expected to lower again back to low-end IFR or even
a few hours of LIFR between 9-16z.

Visibilities:

Mist, recently observed at KEAR, is expected to clear shortly
as bases continue to rise. A quick passing thunderstorm between
23-9z may affect visibilities, although low confidence leaves
the mention only in a Prob-30 group for now. Otherwise,
reductions in visibility down to as low as 2-5SM may be
possible between 8-17z.

Precipitation:

We eye the 23-9z period as a broad potential window for storms,
although a few light showers after 9z may be possible through
12z. The better overall potential for precipitation will be
heavily weighted more towards KEAR rather than KGRI as a few
strong to potentially severe storms will be rushing in from the
northwest during the 23-3z period. Any thunderstorms that nears
the area after 3z will likely remain sub-severe.

Winds:

Probably the least impactive aviation concern this period as
winds are expected to remain light and generally out of the due
east. (A few gusts as high as 20kts may be possible between
18-23z).



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Quick summary of last 12 hours:
Although MOST of our forecast area (CWA) has received well
under 0.50" of rain so far today, a concentrated 20-30 mile wide
stripe of much higher amounts mainly 1.50-3.50" drenched parts
of our Nebraska CWA mainly along a diagonal (northwest-southeast
oriented )stripe centered from Pleasanton-Wood-River-Clay
Center-Bruning (and including Hastings). Within this stripe,
there was a fair amount of mainly shorter-term flooding of
fields, some rural roads and small creeks.

- Looking ahead next 12-14 hours:
Fortunately, the vast majority of the aforementioned stripe of
heavy rain has been dry now for at least 2-4 hours, but with the
potential for much of the CWA to see a widespread 1-3" yet this
evening-overnight (ON TOP OF what has already fallen in some
places), at least small portions of the CWA could end up with
4-6" 24-hour totals by sunrise Sunday. Due to the potential for
at least localized/short-term flooding to occur almost ANYWHERE
in our CWA through tonight, the Flood Watch that was initially
issued yesterday has since been expanded to include our entire
CWA...officially valid through 7 AM Sunday, by which time any
overnight rain should have all-but-departed our CWA...with any
ongoing flooding by then covered by potential Flood
Advisories/Warnings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- New June 20th Record Rainfall For Hastings (HSI):
With plenty of the calendar day yet to go (through Midnight
CST), Hastings Municipal Airport (HSI) has ALREADY BROKEN its
somewhat "weak" June 20th rainfall record with 1.58" (previous
record was 1.46" in 1967).

As for Grand Island Airport, the ASOS there has officially
measured 1.03" so far today...still shy of the June 20th record
of 1.92" set in 2010. However, this could also easily be broken
by the end of the calendar day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Stump
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion