Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

705
FXUS63 KOAX 150332
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1032 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and humid through Tuesday.

- There is a 50-80% chance of storms late Tuesday afternoon
  through Tuesday night, with a 10-20% chance of severe storms,
  especially in northeast Nebraska. The primary threats are
  damaging winds and localized flooding, but some hail is also
  possible.

- Additional rounds of storms will continue Wednesday into early
  Thursday, and again Friday evening into the weekend. Severe
  weather will be possible at times, with the threat of flooding
  increasing with each successive round.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Midlevel ridging over the region helped maintain dry conditions
today. Winds remained light and southwesterly at 5-15 mph this
afternoon, as highs climbed towards 90 degrees.

Temperatures will dip back into the upper 60s tonight before
rebounding back into the upper 80s and low 90s again tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a trough will begin to dig into the northern CONUS,
eventually dragging a cold front into the region by late Tuesday
afternoon. Dewpoints will surge back into the upper 60s and low 70s,
with steepening midlevel lapse rates.  1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will
pool ahead ahead of the boundary by 00Z Tuesday. Expect storms to
develop near the NE/SD border tomorrow afternoon, and quickly grow
upscale into an MCS. Initial storms over far northeast Nebraska
could be capable of producing large hail, with marginal bulk shear
vectors up to 30 kts. But again this will likely be limited by the
storms converging into a line and developing a cold pool, resulting
in damaging winds becoming the primary threat. The complex should
gradually weaken as it moves southeast, and daytime heating wanes.

Spotty showers and storms will linger into Wednesday morning.
Overall, the forecast for Wednesday will be dictated by where the
convective remnants, like left over boundaries and cloud cover from
Tuesday night shake out. There still remains quite a bit of
uncertainty as to where the main front ends up Wednesday. At the
moment, several models have it just to our south, limiting storm
potential. However, should it lift back north as a warm front, as a
few of the previous runs suggest, we could be in for another round
of storms Wednesday evening. MUCAPE could reach over 2000 J/kg south
of the front, however storms` longevity will once again be limited
by the lack of robust shear.

While neither Tuesday nor Wednesday are giving extreme heavy rain
potential, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to some
localized flooding issues, due in part to our already saturated
soils.

Thursday and Beyond...

A few showers and storms could again linger into Thursday. The
location of these would again be dependent on the location of the
front, but the highest chance currently looks to be over far
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overall, drier conditions are
expected for the majority of the forecast area on Thursday.
Additionally, temperatures will be noticeably cooler. Highs will dip
from the mid/upper 80s on Wednesday to the mid/upper 70s on
Thursday.

Temperatures rebound back into the 80s and possibly low 90s, as a
shortwave moves in from the Rockies Friday. This disturbance will
bring yet another marginal chance for strong to severe storms, with
the potential for ample instability but low shear. This unsettled
pattern continues with multiple shortwaves bringing additional off-
and-on chances through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Southerly winds will contain at 8-12 kts, with a few
gusts up to 20 kts possible at KOFK Tuesday afternoon. High
clouds will grow in coverage through the afternoon. Towards the
end of the forecast period (03-06Z), a thunderstorm complex is
expected to push into northeast NE and impact KOFK. A wind
shift to northeasterly is expected with the passage as well as
an approaching deck of clouds at FL040-060. Stronger wind gusts
will be possible, though confidence is low in timing and
coverage at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

778
FXUS63 KGID 142346
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot on Tuesday with heat index values as high as of 100-102
  degrees in southern parts of the area.

- A line of thunderstorms is expected to move northwest to
  southeast across the area Tuesday night. This could produce
  damaging wind and isolated damaging hail, mainly in the 8pm to
  2am timeframe.

- Thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday evening, and a few of these
  could become strong to severe as well, particularly over
  northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

- Cooler and mostly dry on Thursday, then warming up with off/on
  thunderstorm chances Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Skies remain mostly clear across the area with only some spotty
afternoon cumulus beginning to develop as of 2pm. Temperatures
are on-track to top out in the 90s across the entire area this
afternoon. Any convection that develops over CO/WY should remain
well to our northwest through tonight.

On Tuesday, southerly flow increases as a shortwave approaches
the area. This should allow for another day of temperatures in
the 90s and even low 100s in southwestern parts of the area.
Increasing low-level moisture will also likely result in heat
index values in the 100-102 range for portions of northern
Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

By late Tuesday afternoon, scattered convection should develop
over the Nebraska panhandle near and ahead of a cold front. Nearly
all CAMs develop this into one or more southeasterly-moving
lines. This would then reach northwestern portions of the
forecast area (Lexington to Ord) by around 8-9pm. Most of the
HREF members (except WRF-ARW) favor this convection remaining
severe through most of, if not all of the forecast area. As
such, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to cover more of the
forecast area. Given the convective mode, wind would be the
primary threat, although some severe hail cannot be ruled out in
the strongest cores as well. Locally heavy rain could be an
issue for areas with saturated soils, but storms should have
enough forward speed to avoid a significant flooding concern.

For Wednesday, the passage of the cold front will lead to cooler
temperatures for most. The exception will be southeastern
portions of the area where temperatures again reach the 90s as
the cold front stalls over northern Kansas. Exact details remain
somewhat uncertain, and are dependent on how Tuesday night plays
out, but scattered storms (some strong to severe) are expected
to redevelop Wednesday evening. The highest risk area is near
the stalled front in KS and far southern Nebraska, but there is
some risk for these to lift a bit further northward as well.
Slower storm motions along the stalled boundary could lead to
localized heavy rainfall as well.

Thursday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass. In fact, it
could end up being one of the coolest days of the month with
high temperatures only in the mid 70s to low 80s. Global
ensembles and the NBM linger some low (10-30%) PoPs over
southern portions of the area, but most of the area will remain
dry.

Upper level ridging returns on Friday into the weekend, pushing
temperatures back into the 80s and 90s. A series of weak
disturbances traversing the ridge will bring off and on
thunderstorm chances to the area (mainly during the overnight
hours).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
This is a very-high confidence period regarding VFR
ceiling/visibility and staying rain/thunderstorm-free, with only
mainly limited coverage of passing high level clouds. Winds will
remain consistently southerly, and become a little breezy during
the day Tuesday (more details below).

HEADS UP NOTE: Within the first 6 hours BEYOND this valid TAF
period, a line of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms is
possible later Tuesday evening...more info on this in later
TAFs.

- Wind details:
Generally southerly direction will persist throughout the
period. Speeds this evening-overnight mainly under 10KT, but a
modest uptick will occur Tuesday daytime with the overall-
strongest speeds concentrated 17-22Z (sustained around
15KT/gusts up to around 22KT).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion