Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

919
FXUS63 KOAX 242319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms are expected this evening/tonight,
  particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday
  night/Saturday morning, limited to northeastern Nebraska.

- Expect very hot and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday as
  highs reach into the 90s to low 100s each day and heat index
  values approach 105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The forecast period starts out with a weak upper ridge over southern
Wyoming/northern Colorado. A weak shortwave crosses into the region
this evening/tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, particularly for areas along and south of Hwy 92 as the
system rolls through. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and DCAPE
values of 800-1200 J/kg are expected for areas along and south of a
line from the Omaha Metro to York. Wouldn`t entirely rule out a
strong storm or two developing with mainly a wind threat,
particularly for areas south of Lincoln this evening/tonight.

Thursday brings a shift in the pattern as a couple of weak shortwave
troughs moves across the Wyoming/Colorado border, shifting us into
more of a zonal flow pattern through Friday. Expect a slight cool
down as temperatures rise mainly into the 70s, with a few isolated
80s possible along portions of the Missouri River. As the shortwaves
move through Nebraska, there will be a chance (20-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms. These chances are expected to taper off west to
east by Thursday morning.

We maintain zonal flow Friday with a deepening upper low over the
Aleutian Islands and the PACNW. Expect this to be the last cool-ish
day for awhile, with highs ranging form the mid-70s to mid-80s.

Heading into the weekend, the upper low will push ashore over the
West Coast, although there is still some uncertainty in where it
will eventually come ashore. A broad upper trough will extend from
the West Coast to the Rockies, amplifying a ridge over the Midwest
and putting the Great Plains under southwest flow. Saturday highs
will reach into the mid to upper 80s. Sunday and beyond, forecasted
high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s to low 100s. Heat
index values for many areas will range from 96-105. Southwest flow
remains over us through the extended forecast. A few disturbances
are expected to move into the plains, which could ultimately give us
a chance for a few showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light
northwest winds will slowly shift towards the northeast
overnight into Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
in the forecast late tonight into Thursday afternoon. At this
time, forecast model guidance keeps the bulk of activity south
of LNK, mainly across northeast Kansas, through most of the
period. To the north of this, widely scattered showers with a
few thunderstorms are possible late tonight and into Thursday.
With thunderstorm coverage being limited and with model timing
inconsistencies, confidence is low on aviation impacts at area
terminals. While chances are low overall (10-30%), if a shower
or thunderstorm impacts a terminal any impacts are expected to
be short-lived. Brief visibility reductions and gusty, shifting
winds would be the main concern outside of lightning. Forecast
trends will continue to be monitored for weather inclusion in
the TAF forecast should confidence increase in any aviation
impacts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

357
FXUS63 KGID 250033
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
733 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered off and on thunderstorms will impact the area
  tonight, as well as throughout the day and night on Thursday.

- While MOST storms will be relatively weak, a few strong to
  severe storms are possible especially this evening...and
  primarily within the southwest quadrant of our forecast area
  where instability is highest (mainly counties along/south of
  I-80 and west of Hwy 281)

- Cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms will keep
  Thursday well below (nearly 20 degrees) normal for the end of
  June.

- An overall-drier AND warmer regime arrives especially
  Saturday-Monday, with high temps up into the upper 80s-mid 90s
  range. Although certainly nothing unusual for late-June (and
  also short of Heat Advisory criteria), this will really feel
  like a big change given the decent stretch of recent/upcoming
  coolness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The Central Plains sits under weakly tilted northwesterly flow,
that will become more zonal over time. This will cause the
remainder of the work week to be active with scattered showers
and thunderstorms persisting off and on throughout. Activity
will begin to ramp up this evening, peaking during the day
Thursday and tapering off overnight Thursday into Friday
morning. The instability is better off to the west, which will
keep the strongest storms away from the area.

As of this AFD issuance, there is a persistent thunderstorm
moving southeast across the sandhills of Nebraska. High-
resolution internal Ensemble WoFS shows this thunderstorm
tracking south and east towards Grand Island and further
southeast. This thunderstorm is really riding the instability
gradient southeast and generally has about 500-1000 J/Kg to work
with, meanwhile shear is plentiful.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase into the
overnight hours, which is supported by a variety of model
solutions and it will persist in an off and on nature. Due to
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, expect
temperatures to be cool - highs in the 60s to low 70s...which is
about 20 degrees below normal for the end of June.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to exit the area during the
day Friday.

Moving into the weekend, a trough begins to dig in to the
Pacific Northwest and the upper level pattern for the Central
Plains switches to southwesterly as ridging builds into the Ohio
valley by early next week. This pattern change will cause winds
to become southerly and breezy at times, and for moisture
transport to increase. Temperatures will warm back into the
summer like temperatures with highs in the 90s expected for the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
The majority of the period (quite possibly the vast majority of
it) will likely feature VFR ceiling/visibility, and
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions. However, a round of storms is
likely especially this evening-overnight. Outside of any
thunderstorm-outflow, surface winds will also be relatively
tame, with sustained speeds the vast majority of the period
under 12KT, although some more consistent gusts to 15+KT are
probable especially Thursday afternoon.

- More details:
Occasional ceiling/visibility to at least MVFR levels cannot be
ruled out, and particularly the 03-08Z time frame this evening-
overnight features a relatively high chance for intermittent
thunderstorms...some of which could produce gusty winds at least
20-30KT and/or mainly small hail, along with brief heavy rain.
Given increasing confidence in thunderstorm occurrence, TEMPO
groups have been introduced to cover the most favored hours.

While at least MVFR conditions could occur during active
thunderstorms tonight, one of the bigger questions is what
happens AFTER the main round of convection departs early
Thursday morning...namely: will ceiling hold up no lower than
low-end VFR...or could MVFR become more prevalent or at least
continue intermittently through the remainder of the period?
Given how some higher-res models largely "whiffed" on the
potential prevalence of sub-VFR ceiling during these last 24
hours, will lean more on "older school" numerical guidance (GFS
LAMP/LAV) and officially call for no worse than low-end VFR
ceiling in prevailing groups, but keeping scattered sub-VFR
groups to at least "hint" at that potential.

Lastly, and getting back to rain shower/thunderstorm chances, at
least intermittent showers/weak thunderstorms could occur beyond
the aforementioned TEMPO groups, and have kept PROB30 groups in
place through 12Z. Beyond 12Z and into Thursday daytime,
considered going with additional PROB30 but with some of latest
higher-res models keeping most of daytime convection at least
slightly south/west/east of KGRI/KEAR, opted to refrain for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion