Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

530
FXUS63 KOAX 172326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of central into
  eastern Nebraska due to very dry conditions and gusty winds
  through late this evening.

- A front will move through this evening bringing low-end rain
  chances (15-30%) and sporadic gusts of 40 to 50+ mph.

- Warm temperatures this afternoon are on track to break or tie
  record highs across much of the area.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday. There is a
  medium (30-50%) chance of accumulating snow and travel impacts
  for portions of northeast Nebraska currently.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

An active period of weather is expected throughout the remainder
of the week and potentially into this weekend. This afternoon
starts off our active weather with extreme fire danger and
near-record to record high temperatures. A potent southwesterly
low-level jet is overspreading the region. This feature will
help to make conditions very dry and gusty through the afternoon
and evening resulting in Red Flag Warnings for much of central
and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures should also soar well into
the 70s across the area, challenging or breaking many records in
the process. The first weather system moves through the region
tonight. A westerly wind shift with a front arrives this
evening, this brings a low chance (15-30%) of rain with it. With
very dry conditions, very little rain will make it to the
surface and this may instead support a low chance of wind gusts
of 40 to 50+ mph due to virga. Winds will be slow to weaken
tonight helping keep temperatures from cooling efficiently. Very
high fire danger lingers into Wednesday with negligible
moisture recovery. Temperatures and wind speeds decrease behind
tonights system, but gusty winds over northeast Nebraska and
areawide warm temperatures in the 60s remain.

The next system is forecast to arrive Thursday into Friday.
This system will bring much cooler temperatures to the area and
mark the return of snow to the forecast after a prolonged
hiatus. Cooling temperatures behind a developing low pressure
system sees rain change to snow Thursday afternoon and evening.
With snow expected overnight into early Friday morning for much
of the area. At this time the best chance of precipitation
(50-70%) is forecast over portions of northeast Nebraska and
west-central Iowa. That said, any heavier snow bands are
anticipated to remain narrow. Latest model guidance continues
to show appreciable spread between runs and models on the track
of this heavier band. At this time, where the heaviest snow
band sets up, several inches of snow is not out of the question,
resulting in travel impacts. Elsewhere, precipitation amounts
should be more limited. Light snow accumulations may still be
possible, but travel impacts would be lesser. Look for continued
updates as confidence increases with snow potential.

The next system passes south of the region on Saturday. Colder
temperatures will remain from the previous system, allowing for
additional snowfall potential with any precipitation. At this
time, the bulk of any precipitation is forecast to remain south
of the area. That said, a low (20-40%) chance of light snow and
accumulations may develop for portions of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa should precipitation reach this far north. This
additional system will continue to be closely monitored.

The pattern settles down a bit by Sunday into early next week.
Dry conditions return to the area as temperatures warm back
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strong winds continue to be the main sticking point for the TAF
period, with the gustiest part of the TAF occurring over the
next 6 hours. The much anticipated wind shift is arriving to
KOFK before 00z this evening, before reaching KOMA/KLNK closer
to 03z. As the wind shift moves through, some light
shower/thunderstorm activity is possible (20% chance), which
would work to create sporadic gusts to 40-45 kts or more as they
pass through. They`ll be pushing down the strong winds found at
FL015, which are expected to reach 45-50 kts, creating low-
level wind shear at KOMA and KLNK during the overnight hours
start at 03z. From there, VFR conditions are expected to
continue holding through the period, with gusts decreasing to 20
kts during the late morning and afternoon hours, before
dropping off 21-22z tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Extreme fire danger this afternoon into late this evening
remains on track. The Red Flag Warning was expanded eastward
with clouds quick to clear late this morning. Very dry
conditions with relative humidity as low as 15% to 30% and wind
gusts upwards of 40 MPH are anticipated for much of central and
eastern Nebraska. There is a low chance of even higher wind
gusts approaching 50 mph with a front this evening. Virga
showers and very strong low-level winds may locally enhance
surface wind gusts along this front. Very high to extreme fire
danger lingers late this evening with negligible recovery and
gusty winds weakening slowly. This would cause fire control
concerns should any fires remain active into this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Petersen
FIRE WEATHER...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

186
FXUS63 KGID 172358
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty west to southwest winds and lowering relative humidity
  values will keep the potential for critical fire weather
  conditions around through early-mid evening. A Red Flag
  Warning remains in effect area-wide through 10PM this evening.

- Not out of the question for some isolated preciptiation to
  develop/push east across the area, exiting early this evening
  to the east...a rumble of thunder or two is also possible.
  Not expecting any notable rain out of this activity, of more
  concern would be the potential it helps to drag down stronger
  winds...gusts closer to 55 to 60 will be possible through
  early evening.

- After well above normal high temps (record breaking) and fire
  weather concerns today, winter makes a return for Wednesday
  night into the day on Thursday. Potential for accumulating
  snow makes a return, currently favoring the northern half of
  the forecast area. Gusty NW winds accompanying this snow will
  be possible as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently through tonight...

Not really any surprises so far today, a dry, warm, gusty day
across the forecast area. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data are showing larger scale troughing over the
western CONUS and broad ridging over the east...leaving the
Central Plains with southwesterly flow. An embedded shortwave
trough axis is swinging NE out of the High Plains, roughly
orientated from central MT southeastward into western KS. The
accompanying sfc trough axis is making its way into western
portions of the forecast area, with a cold front not lagging too
far behind. Ahead of these boundaries, winds remain south-
southwesterly, switching to the west-northwest with the passage
of that initial boundary. Gusts through the rest of the
afternoon will have the potential to climb exceed 45-50 MPH,
mainly on the backside of that boundary. Expanded the mention of
patchy blowing dust across the rest of the forecast area, obs
along our western edge have dropped down to just a few miles at
times. Hi- res models continue to show the potential for some
isolated precipitation along this boundary over the next 2-4
hrs, and it`s not out of the question there could be a rumble of
thunder or two, so did insert that mention into the forecast.
With the lower levels being so dry/increased mixing across the
area, think it`ll be tough to get more than
sprinkles/trace...the bigger concern lies with whether this
activity can drag down stronger winds to the sfc, any of that
activity will have the potential to result in gusts closer to
55-60 MPH.

The time frame with the best potential for those strong wind
gusts, precipitation, fire weather concerns, and dust is now
through early to mid evening. The Red Flag Warning currently
goes through 10PM this evening, with relative humidity values
improving some as temps cool...but not expecting a significant
improvement, as forecast RH values only climb into the 40s by
12Z Wed. In addition, while westerly wind gusts will taper off
some, gusts around 25 MPH will be possible through the overnight
hours. Highs have panned out close to as expected, with 3PM
highs in the low-mid 70s...both Grand Island and Hastings have
already broken the their daily high temperature records for
today (GI record was 72, HSI was 74). Both look to also set new
record warm low temperatures for today, as it`s unlikely they`ll
drop below this morning`s temps of 42 at GI (record was 41) and
44 at HSI (record was 37) by midnight tonight.

Mid to Late Week...

Looking at Wednesday, the dry forecast continues on through at
least the daytime-early evening hours...with models in good
agreement showing upper level shortwave ridging sliding through
the region, set up between today`s system departing off to the
NE and the next on working its way through the Nrn/Central
Rockies. Winds will be lighter...with the area losing influence
from sfc low pressure moving into MN and deepening low pressure
over eastern CO...bringing a switch from westerly winds to start
the day to more ESErly winds by evening time. It`ll be cooler,
but still above normal, with highs in the low-mid 60s. Airmass
remains dry, allowing for relative humidity values to fall below
20 percent...but the overall lighter winds (afternoon gusts
closer to 15-20 MPH possible) will help keep greater fire
weather concerns at bay.

Late Wednesday night and moreso into the day on Thursday, the
first of a couple of upper level disturbances will remind us
that it`s still winter...bringing chances for accumulating snow.
Hasn`t been any significant changes in models...showing the
system moving through today stalling out over the western Great
Lakes, forcing this next system to take more of an easterly
track across the region. Models continue to show a sharper,
narrow band of snow...continuing to mainly favor the northern
half of Nebraska. Questions remain with just how far south snow
extends, likely ending up with a sharper gradient than what`s
currently in the forecast. Chances in the 50-70 percent range
remain focused along/north of I- 80 (best chances along/north of
HWY 92), dropping to around 20 percent along the NE/KS state
line. Plenty of details to iron out in the coming days...EC
ensemble data showing a 60+ percent probability of 1 in or more
across our northern half...GFS ensembles top out closer to 40-50
percent. In addition to the accumulating snow chances, this
system will usher in a reinforcing cold front, bringing gusty NW
winds. Those with travel plan to the north will want to keep on
eye on how this trends in the coming days. Even colder highs
are expected, topping out near 30 in the north to lower 40s in
the south.

Dry conditions return for the day on Friday, but another upper
level disturbance will be making its way through the region
Friday night into Saturday. There have been more differences
between models/runs with this system...with timing and
location...but this one currently looks to favor the southern
half of the forecast area with accumulating snow. Highs for both
Friday and Saturday remains in the 30s-near 40 range.

Early next week...

Not a lot of focus on the latter portions of the forecast
period, as models continue to be in pretty good agreement
showing upper level ridging becoming a bigger driver once
again...drying the forecast out for Sun-Tue. Expecting a gradual
warm up, with highs Tuesday back in the 50s-near 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Gusty winds out of the west to west-northwest this evening
currently blow between 25-40MPH with gusts as high as 30-45MPH.
Though winds are expected to start to decrease across the next
2-3 hours, speeds between 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as
20-30MPH will likely retain through the night. Winds for
Wednesday will be much lighter (5-10MPH with gusts as high as
20MPH possible) with wind directions turning southerly.
45-50kts of LLWS out of the northwest will make an appearance
as the surface winds wane tonight through 12zish. Though a few
lower-level clouds swing across the area this evening, mostly
clear skies will dominate the period until at least 16z. VFR
conditions are expected to maintain. The light rain/sprinkles
should have cleared both terminal sights for the night with no
other precipitation chances expected Wednesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion