Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

762
FXUS63 KOAX 251026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be warmer yet for Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday evening in
  northeast Nebraska. Some storms may be strong or severe with a
  threat of 1" hail and 60 mph winds.

- A shift in the pattern brings cooler temperatures and daily
  chances of showers/thunderstorm activity to the region
  beginning Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The upper flow across the area is mostly zonal with a trof east
of here and an attendant cold front at the surface. That`s easy
to see in forecast charts, but you have to squint to see a
shortwave embedded within that broad zonal flow. It`s produced a
sfc low and some severe weather just on the other side of the
SD border, but the drier air in Nebraska and being farther
displaced from the best lift up north has kept things quieter
here. The SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING was cancelled early as
even the nocturnal jet ramping up couldn`t produce an uptick in
convective trends.

Radiational cooling under mostly clear skies will be battling
with the WAA produced by the southerly winds. Temps should
settle on a low in the upper 50s for most.

.MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...

The warming trend culminates with a sunny afternoon of highs in
the mid- to upper 80s. Another round of thunder and convection
is expected for north-central and northeastern Nebraska in the
afternoon and evening (like today). Strong forcing for ascent
is missing (like today), but there is some sfc convergence (like
today), and shear and lapse rates suggest (like today) that any
storm that can get going may grow large enough to produce some
large hail or damaging wind gusts. PoPs in the northern half of
our area are 15-30%, with the threat of severe weather lower at
5-10%. Lincoln, Omaha, and western Iowa are forecast to remain
dry.

.TUESDAY...

Another toasty one is anticipated with highs a lot like those
recorded Monday. It`ll feel like summer with sunny skies and
temps ten degrees warmer than normal. The day is currently
forecast to remain dry as ridging back-builds in from the east
and heights rise. As the ridging builds northwest over the
cutoff low whirling over the Sierras.

.WEDNESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Temperatures on Wednesday will be dependent on how far
southwest the backdoor cold front slides as high pressure
settles into the Great Lakes. Currently progged to fall shy -
laying across IA/MN on Wednesday - it would leave us with highs
in the 80s.

The front is expected to continue to sag south and pass through
the area leaving temps cooler for Thursday into the weekend.
This front stalled just south of the area should help produce
some shower/storm activity. A few rounds of precip would be
welcomed. Heavy rain concerns seem to be decreasing over the
past 24 hours as the heaviest rain chances are narrowing to
areas farther south.

Best chances of precip look to be Thursday (80% south) and
Friday (60% everywhere).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are observed for the start of the TAF cycle and
should persist throughout the period. Low level wind shear will
end within the next hour or two. Southerly winds become gusty by
the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. The gustiness
subsides this evening with winds remaining from the south but
less than 12 kts. Model guidance continues to develop an area of
scattered showers and storms northwest of a line from KBVN to
KOFK to KLCG after 00z. Chances remain at 15 to 30% for storms
at this time. If they do develop, a few could be strong with
hail and gusty winds. Have only included mentions of lower
ceilings to 9,000 ft at KOFK and no -TSRA given low confidence
for occurrence. Low level wind shear redevelops at KOFK late
tonight as the low level jet overspreads northeast Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

082
FXUS63 KGID 251110
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
610 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expecting mainly dry conditions for much of the day today,
  though chances for isolated-scattered will increase late
  afternoon-evening across NWrn portions of the area. Not out of
  the question that a few storms could be strong-severe...with
  damaging winds gusts being the primary hazard.

- Forecast highs for today are a slight bump up from Sunday,
  with low 90s expected. Winds will continue to be southerly,
  with gusts during the day of 25-30 MPH possible.

- Tuesday looks to be dry, with preciptiation chances returning
  Wednesday on into the weekend...as a messy upper level pattern
  develops across the CONUS. Confidence in finer details of
  those chances is not high at this point. Potential for severe
  weather at this point looks to be on the lower side, as upper
  level flow may be weak.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Currently...

Forecast area is sitting under quiet conditions early this
morning...the scattered showers and thunderstorms that had moved
in from the west late Sunday afternoon diminished as they
pushed east, ending during the early evening hours. Looking
aloft...weak, generally westerly flow remains in place across
the area, with the disturbance that helped to spark that
activity on Sunday over eastern SD. Elsewhere across the
CONUS...broad troughing from low pressure near the Hudson Bay
area is pushing closer to the central/northern East
Coast...while out west, one disturbance is currently set up over
the CA/Mex border area, with a larger area of low pressure
gradually sinking south along the Canadian west coast. Not much
change with the surface pattern across the region, with the
forecast area sitting between troughing along the High Plains
and high pressure over most of the Midwest. This is keeping
winds southerly...at still on the breezy side, with gusts near
20-25 MPH at times.

Today through Tuesday...

Overall, hasn`t been any significant changes in things for the
start of the new work week...with the main chances (though
they aren`t great) coming later today. Models continue to show a
similar story to Sunday...with the daytime hours mainly dry.
Upper level flow is expected to remain on the weaker side,
turning more southwesterly with time through this evening as
that disturbance over the CA/Mex border pushes into the Four
Corners region. Expecting another breezy day today...with little
change in the sfc pattern, if anything the trough axis does
shift a bit east closer to our WNWrn edges. Gusts near 20-30 MPH
will again be possible...with the strongest speeds across
central/ESE areas further away from that sfc boundary. Skies
looking to again be mostly clear-partly cloudy...with another
bump up in high temperatures, with low-90s forecast. As we get
into the mid-late afternoon/peak heating hours...there will be
the potential for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to
develop near that sfc boundary...again coverage being on the
sparse side due to weak forcing. MLCAPE values also look to be
similar to Sunday with values exceeding 1000-1500 j/kg possible,
mainly across NNW areas, then decreasing further south. Not
that deeper layer shear yesterday was anything to get too
excited about, models continue to show values today being even
lower...showing that even getting 20kts of shear may be a
struggle. That all being said, still not out of the question
that a few storms could be on the strong-marginally severe
side...driven mainly by the potential for stronger wind gusts.
What activity does develop is shown by models to wane during the
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating...leaving the
rest of the night dry.

The forecast remains dry for Tuesday...with the start of a messy
upper level pattern developing across the CONUS. Models are
showing the forecast area sitting under SSErly flow aloft...set
up between the larger area of low pressure which continues
sinking south along the West Coast, phasing in that disturbance
over the Four Corners region, resulting in troughing extending
SEward into the Srn Plains...and a ridge axis extending across
the Dakotas/Midwest. Tuesday will be another breezy day out of
the south- southeast...sustained speeds near 15-25 MPH and gusts
of 25-30 will again be possible. Models show a slight cooldown
in the airmass across the region...forecast highs for Tuesday
are a touch lower, but still above normal in the mid-upper 80s.

Mid-Week On Through the Weekend...

Overall confidence in the finer details of the forecast mid to
late week remains on the lower side...things will be driven by
how the blocked upper level pattern evolves, and differences
between models still remain. Models showing an area of upper
level low pressure sinking south into the extreme NErn CONUS
mid-week, with another reinforcing low sinking south late-week
into the weekend. With this and the large area of low pressure
over the western CONUS...ridging gets sandwiched in between
through the central CONUS...but exactly where the axis ends up
is still in question. The highest precipitation chances through
the latter periods remain in the late day Wednesday through
Thursday time frame...driven by models showing a shortwave
disturbance being able to shift NNE out of the Srn Plains. Will
be interesting to see how models trend the next couple of
days...some are less aggressive with QPF than others. During the
late week-weekend period...confidence is even lower with how
things will evolve, so preciptiation chances remain very broad,
generally in the 20-50 percent range. Highs Wed-Sun remain
mainly in the mid 70s-low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Satellite shows an area of deepening cumulus over southwest
Nebraska. This will be the area to monitor as it slides across
central Nebraska and northern Kansas late this afternoon into
early evening. CAMs indicate that coverage should remain pretty
isolated, but convective parameters are favorable for a few of
these to become strong to marginally severe (MUCAPE 1500-2000
J/kg and effective shear ~30kts). Relatively dry low levels
would be favorable for downburst winds. This will likely be the
primary hazard, although some severe hail cannot be completely
ruled out as well. Any storms that develop should fade by 9-10pm
with the loss of diurnal heating.

Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, and many
areas are anticipated to reach the low 90s, aided by a steady
south wind. Isolated storms are again possible, although CAMs
indicate that this will be more favorable over the Sandhills,
potentially nudging into northwestern portions of the forecast
area. Shear is not impressive tomorrow, so an organized severe
threat is even less likely than today.

Tuesday is favored to remain mostly dry, but rain/tstorm chances
increase again Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday.
This will be in response to a shortwave moving across the
central Plains ahead of a deeper upper low over the west coast.
Off and on chances for thunderstorms then continue through the
end of the week as the upper low gradually ejects over the
northern Plains. Unfortunately, the upper-level pattern is
expected to be "messy" which makes it difficult to pin down
specific details. But, as mentioned in the Key Messages, the
severe threat does not look particularly threatening. The GEFS
CSU-MLP severe probs remain below 5% through next week. This is
probably partly influenced by uncertainty on timing/evolution of
the upper level pattern, but is still well below climatology
(~10%) for late May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Currently have
this period dry as well...there is the potential for iso-sct
storms late this afternoon and early evening, but models are in
pretty good agreement keeping the best chances off to the NW of
the terminal areas. Winds are expected to remain southerly
through the period...with the daytime hours again bringing gusty
conditions, gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible. Have LLWS
sticking around for an hour right at the start of the
period...then making a return between 04-10Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion