Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

000
FXUS63 KOAX 210831
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
331 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop through the overnight
hours, to the north of a stationary surface boundary draped from
western KS to around Falls City, NE. The main area of concern was
from the far southwest corner of Iowa up to the Platte River in
eastern Nebraska, as an increasing LLJ pulled more moisture into the
region, fueling thunderstorm activity. In fact, PWATs were estimated
to be over 2", which would be close to, if not higher than the daily
max recorded PWAT for this region. Thankfully, given the lack of
recent rainfall across the area, flash flood guidance was fairly
high across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early this morning.
However, flash flood warnings were issued just to our south in
northwest MO.

Precipitation is forecast to continue through the morning hours
today. Unfortunately, any showers and storms will continue to be
very slow moving, creating the potential for very heavy rainfall
where training occurs. Therefore we will continue to keep a close
eye on any flash flood potential for today. Precipitation coverage
will generally begin to diminish in the afternoon hours, as the
better instability begins to move south of the forecast area, and
support from the LLJ has waned. However, there may be an uptick in
activity, mainly south of I-80, in the mid to late afternoon as an
upper trough pushes in from the west. A few storms today may have
the potential to produce strong winds and hail, in addition to
heavy rainfall. A very small chance for a tornado cannot be ruled
out as well. Overall, rainfall totals are expected to be around 1
to 3 inches through this evening, with locally higher amounts of
up to 5 inches possible, mainly across far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

But, there is some good news. We will get a considerable amount of
relief from the heat.  High temperatures across most of the CWA
today will be near, if not lower than minimum temperatures that we
saw over the last several days. Highs are forecast to range from
the lower 70s in northeast Nebraska to the lower 80s in far
southeast NE/southwest IA. Lows Sunday night will fall well into
the lower 60s and upper 50s across the area with lingering
precipitation finally exiting the CWA shortly after midnight.

Dry weather will continue into Monday as high pressure builds into
the region.  Temperatures will remain pleasant, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

High pressure will continue to dominate across the central CONUS,
keeping us dry through the majority of next week.  Temperatures will
gradually climb closer to normal, starting with highs in the upper
70s on Tuesday, and eventually reaching the mid to upper 80s by late
in the week.  Models continue to indicate that the ridge will
eventually begin to break down late this week, with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning Thursday night and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Thunderstorms developing at all three TAF sites through the
period, along with MVFR ceilings at KLNK/KOMA. Thunderstorm
chances wane by about 14z at KOFK, but linger through about
22/00-04z at KLNK and KOMA respectively. The main storm hazards
are gusty winds and small hail, but the bigger threat appears to
be locally heavy rain, 1 to 3" possible through Sunday morning.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DeWald

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

455
FXUS63 KGID 210809
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
309 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

In the immediate short term/predawn hours, the surface cold front
had pushed south of our cwa and was oriented from southwest to
northeast KS as of 07Z. Cooler air with temps in the 60s were
advecting south behind the boundary from northern Neb. Early night
convection initiated to our west across eastern WY/CO/western KS
and the western complex of storms has been working eastward
during the predawn hours, and additional new development has
occurred along/north of the elevated frontal boundary across
central Neb.

The greater instability resides along the surface front to our
south before daybreak, however elevated instability is still
decent around 2500 j/kg along the mid level frontal zone early this
morning. Shear parameters remain more marginal at 25-30kts...but
a few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible primarily
into first part of the day. And as has been mentioned for the
last couple of days, the storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values average around
two inches. We have some forecast rain amounts potentially
topping an inch primarily in the Platte and Loup Basins and will
need to monitor where heavier rain bands set up today.

The HRRR model is handling the timing/coverage of the convection
fairly well early this morning and keeps a fair amount of precip
around for a good portion of the day. Daytime temps will be
quite a bit cooler than recent days in the post frontal airmass
with readings ultimately dependent upon clouds and how long precip
lingers. Aftn highs in the low/mid 70s should be common across
south central Neb with some 80s possible in north central KS.

The mesoscale complex is expected to depart to the southeast this
evening with any remnant convection winding down pretty quickly.
Surface high pressure building south from the Dakotas tonight will
reinforce the cooler airmass and noticeably less humid air will
filter south with dps in the 50s. Temps are set to average in the
50s for lows which we`ve seen very little of yet this July.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The extended forecast is still looking pretty quiet weatherwise. The
dry, cooler airmass remains across our region for the first part of
the week (Mon/Tues) in between a western upper ridge over the
Rockies and an eastern trough from Quebec through the Ohio valley.
For those wanting to give air conditioners a break...daytime temps
should average in the 70s, with readings at night dropping into
the 50s.

For the middle/latter part of the week, temperatures will return to
the 80s for highs in a moderating more seasonal airmass as the
western upper ridge expands east but dampens due to a series of
shortwaves translating across Canada and the northern plains
states. Precip chances remain pretty minimal for the upcoming
workweek and into the first part of the weekend with just small
chances in the forecast Thurs/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

MVFR ceilings will drop to IFR early this morning. VCTS, decided
to push back timing in the TAFs for VCTS as model guidance is
currently showing it around the 12z time frame. A few showers are
starting to form on radar so will keep on it and will amend if TS
looking to impact the TAF sites. Winds will generally be
northeasterly through the period. Expect OCNL gusts to 18-20kts
overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Beda

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion