62°F
Updated:
5/22/2026
11:25:26am
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
161 FXUS63 KOAX 221051 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 551 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through Friday morning. Another broken line of storms is expected later Friday with a strong to severe storm or two possible. Hail is the primary hazard. - A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry conditions expected through the holiday weekend. - Rain chances return by the middle of next week, though timing and coverage remain uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Friday... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis depict an upper-level trough moving from the Front Range into the central and northern Plains, maintaining generally southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Increasing moisture transport and forcing for ascent have led to shower and thunderstorm development this evening, which will become more widespread overnight. PoPs range from 75-100% and peak at most locations during the mid to late morning hours (8AM-11AM). Enough elevated instability is present for a few embedded thunderstorms through the period. Showers will clear from west to east late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, with highs reaching the 60s to low 70s. By late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the main vorticity maximum will pivot across the Dakotas and push a cold front through the area. A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the front as it moves west to east across the forecast area. The stronger shear and better instability will remain displaced from one another, limiting overall severe weather potential. Instability will be maximized across southeast NE and southwest IA, where 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop, while higher values remain south of the NE/KS border. Meanwhile, the stronger bulk shear will remain north of the NE/SD border, with only around 25-30 kts extending into the local area. With this setup, ingredients may be sufficient for a strong to severe storm or two across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. Hodographs do support the potential for a low topped supercell or two. This round of storms should move through quickly, with precipitation expected to exit the area before midnight. CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in placing the highest rainfall totals over the next 24 hours in swatch from northeast NE into northwest IA. HREF guidance bring a 70-100% probability of at least 0.50 inches of precipitation across northeast NE, with probabilities decreasing farther south. There is also a 50-75% probability of at least 1 inch of rainfall across portions of northeast Nebraska. Localized pockets may push towards 1.50 inches. A welcome sight after the area missed out on a lot of meaningful rainfall so far this season. Saturday through Monday... A warming trend will take hold through the holiday weekend as mid- level riding and surface high pressure slide into the area. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 70s on Saturday, low 80s on Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Generally dry conditions are expected through the holiday weekend. A weak vorticity maximum passing by to the north may bring a stray light shower or two on Monday. Moisture will be very limited, so the holiday is not expected to be a washout by any means, but a low chance (around 10- 15%) for a light shower will remain possible early Monday. Tuesday and Beyond... The large-scale pattern becomes somewhat uncertain next week as a trough moves onshore across the western CONUS. Long-range guidance diverges on the speed and placement of this features as it progresses eastward, leading to uncertainty in the timing and location of precipitation chances. For now, highs generally remain in the mid 80s, with intermittent 30-50% PoPs Tuesday through Friday. Expected further refinements to precipitation timing as the period approaches. No particular day currently stand out for severe weather, as more meaningful moisture advection and forcing for ascent don`t arrive until at least midweek and appear maximized to our west for the time being. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions continue to impact terminals this morning as a complex of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms pushes east northeast into the area. Have continued mentions of -SHRA at KOFK with IFR ceilings until noon and gradual improvement in conditions to MVFR and VFR expected by the late afternoon/early evening. KOMA and KLNK will see more -SHRA late this morning, with -TSRA forecast to move through these terminals in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will persist with this activity before slowly lifting after 00z. Uncertainty remains with how far north storms may develop toward KOFK, so have left mentions out at that terminal but will continue to monitor and assess trends. These afternoon storms could be strong with hail and gusty winds the primary threats. Southeast winds will become gusty this morning at 20 to 30 kts with the strongest gusts expected at KOFK. Gustiness subsides by the late afternoon as a front moves through and switches winds to the south southwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Castillo
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
232 FXUS63 KGID 221134 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 634 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Swath of showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing east across the area tonight...can`t rule out a few stronger storms with small hail/gusty winds. - During the daytime hours today, the main upper level disturbance and accompanying surface frontal boundary slide across the Central Plains...gradually focusing the better shower/storm chances east with time. Chances will end from west to east...with the entire area dry by early evening. - The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is currently dry...but the upper level pattern remains generally zonal, with the potential for periodic disturbances and scattered precipitation chances around the region. Will see how models trend (there are differences) in the coming days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Currently... A broad swath of showers and thunderstorms continues to gradually work its way east across the Central Plains...bringing some welcomed moisture to the area, especially western areas which have been drier and missed out on some of the heavier recent rains. This precipitation is being driven by an upper level trough axis extending southward out of central Canada through the High Plains...with satellite data showing a couple of separate areas of low pressure spinning over southern Saskatchewan and eastern Wyoming. This activity will continue sliding east through the rest of the overnight hours..can`t rule out a few stronger storms with small hail/gusty winds, but models show instability generally around 500 j/kg, so not anticipating severe weather. Depending on where some stronger storms develop/move, not out of the question some rainfall amounts around 2 inches could occur. At the surface, the forecast area continues to sit with southeasterly winds, generally around 10-15 MPH...with the main area of low pressure/cold front still off to our west along the High Plains. Daytime hours today into tonight... Main forecast concern through the very short term will remain with the ongoing showers/thunderstorms and timing their departure off to the east. As time passes through the morning hours, short term/hi- res models show the better chances for precipitation becoming more focused along the surface frontal boundary. Model timing in generally good agreement with the timing of that boundary...getting it roughly halfway through the forecast area around midday, then to or just beyond the HWY 81 corridor during the late afternoon hours. Across eastern portions of the forecast area mid-late afternoon, ahead of that sfc frontal boundary, models show a narrow axis of higher instability lifting northward...with MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg not out of the question, especially for locations closer to/south of the NE-KS state line. Not out of the question that a few storms could be on the stronger side...at this point given the timing, the better potential for any severe storms looks to focus just off to our ESE, though if things slow down any it could be a close call. Precipitation chances look to slide to our east by early evening...forecast through the overnight hours is dry. Ahead of the front, winds turn more southerly and may be gusty at times...with the passage of front ushering a switch in winds to the northwest, which will also be on the breezy/gusty side...gusts near 20-25 MPH are not out of the question. With this precip and the frontal boundary being a daytime passage...confidence in high temperatures for the day is on the lower side, especially for central areas...and even being this closer there are still some notable differences between models. Forecast has WNW areas looking to mainly be in the 60s, with ESE areas able to climb into the 70s prior to the front. Memorial Day Holiday weekend and on... The forecast for Saturday through Memorial Day is currently dry...but at least small precipitation chances will be lingering around nearby. Models showing the upper level low/trough axis currently over eastern WY pushing east into the Dakotas today/tonight...but another push of shortwave troughing moves through the Central Plains Sat-Sat night. Models show scattered spots of precipitation around the region during this Sat-Sat night period...mainly outside of the forecast area, but especially for western and southern areas, it may be close. For Sunday and Memorial Day...while the official forecast is currently dry, it`s not a slam dunk guarantee. Models show the upper level pattern being generally westerly, leaving the door open for any potential shortwave disturbances to move through. Models do differ...some keep things dry, others show the potential for some late day-evening activity. Will see how models trend over the coming days. As far as temperatures go...highs for Saturday are forecast to climb into the low-mid 70s, then into the mid-upper 80s by Memorial Day. Scattered shower/storm chances return to the forecast for Tuesday on through the rest of the week...with models showing the upper level pattern turning back to the SSW as a large area of low pressure digs through the western CONUS. Highs Tue-Fri remain mainly in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 This afternoon-Friday... Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid- late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway 81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10" across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1" across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across southeastern portions of the area. Saturday... Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%) for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday evening. Sunday Onwards.... Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details are uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Main timeframe of concern for this TAF period will come in roughly the first 6hrs. Broad area of showers and thunderstorms has been working its way east all night...that trend will continue through the daytime hours today. The potential for heaviest precipitation looks to be in the first 3 hours, with more of a VC coverage from mid-morning on. Expecting precip chances to end for the terminal areas around 18Z, with dry conditions currently forecast for the remainder of the period. Along with the precip chances, the potential for MVFR-IFR (perhaps brief LIFR) conditions will continue...with improvement as we get toward midday...with VFR conditions eventually returning. Current timing has that at 18Z...confidence in that exact timing isn`t high. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary and with ongoing precip...winds early this morning are variable in direction. The main surface boundary will gradually push east this morning, eventually ushering in WNW winds to the terminal areas...some gusts near 20 MPH will be possible through the early-mid afternoon hours, then tapering late in the day and overnight, turning back more westerly. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...ADP DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...ADP
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