83°F
Updated:
4/14/2026
6:20:50pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
311 FXUS63 KOAX 141918 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly tonight and Friday. - Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems. - Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today and Tonight... A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln, Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30 percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions are worst, until 9 PM tonight. The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional shear could allow storms to become severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early morning hours. Wednesday and Thursday... The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday and Beyond... Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes. Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A warm front draped across the region will make for a tricky wind forecast this afternoon. KOMA and KLNK currently reside right along the front, with light and variable winds. Expect the front to push farther north this afternoon, bringing southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Scattered showers and storms will be possible this evening and overnight. While the best chance for strong to severe storms will likely remain south and east of the TAF sites, a few weaker storms could develop farther north. The best chance for thunder at KOMA, KLNK, and KOFK will likely be after 06Z tonight and into Wednesday morning, however confidence in storm location is too low to include a mention at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...KG
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
015
FXUS63 KGID 142056
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
356 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along
and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind
gusts 25-35 mph)
- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly
within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the
northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be
quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or
just after sunset.
- Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM
across south central Nebraska could also become severe with
the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds.
- Friday`s storm system will likely send a cold front through
early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly
winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely
not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe
weather threat east of our forecast area.
- Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our
entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds
Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30
MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day)
- Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each
afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical
fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least
parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire
weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on
Thursday.
- Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some
areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with
most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you
already plant your tomatoes (better cover them).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Today...
The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our
forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from
Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the
CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible
thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated
thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has
been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These
will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the
steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and
very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the
primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest
that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any
of these thunderstorms.
Tonight...
We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated
thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However,
things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday.
Wednesday...
The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating
thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn.
These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning,
could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast
area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although
our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe
weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may
need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties.
The main threat will again be hail and wind through early
afternoon.
Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler
60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice
as one might expect.
Thursday...
This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s.
It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please
see the fire weather section below.
Friday Through next Weekend...
A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but
the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any
precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will
likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast
is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some
areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts
out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it
probably won`t end very nice behind that cold front. Fire
weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section
below.
Monday and Tuesday...
The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer
weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United
States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain.
We`ll have to see as it`s still a long ways off.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
The wind for the most part should remain out of the northeast at
KEAR and KGRI through the evening with the strongest winds this
afternoon. Eventually the wind will become northerly late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a surface low tracks south of
the area. Eventually we expect breezy northwesterly winds by
Wednesday afternoon after the low pressure system passes by.
The primary aviation concern is the chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly tonight into Wednesday morning with the
most likely time frame being late Wednesday morning through
around the noon hour as the surface low passes through. Will
continue with the VFR conditions for now, but can not rule out
periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary
boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS
border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red
flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset.
Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will
limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area.
THURSDAY:
We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday
due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat,
drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon-
early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with
southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH.
Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon.
We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but
wanted to get through today`s Red Flag Warning first before
issuing for Thursday.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get
cooler. The airmass behind Friday`s system is dry and RH values
will continue to be at least near critical. There could be
enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during
this period for some areas.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely
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