Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

712
FXUS63 KOAX 142322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
522 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues today, mainly along and south of I-80, with
  the highest chances (30-60%) near the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  with upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, to the 70s by
  Tuesday.

- Very High Fire Danger will be possible Sunday in northeast
  Nebraska, and span the entire forecast area on Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- An active weather pattern arrives by the middle of next week.
  Periodic precipitation chances with cooler, yet still above
  normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today and Tonight

Light rain pushed into far southeast Nebraska this morning, and
struggled to reach the surface as it progressed north. Similarly,
light radar returns indicated the development of spotty showers over
northeast Nebraska, which yielded little more than a sprinkle making
it to the surface, after passing through a layer of dry air.

A blanket of cloud cover kept temperatures mild across the region
last night, with lows dipping into the 30s, and a few locations only
falling into the 40s. By noon today, most of the forecast area had
bounced back into the 50s.

Showers will continue to skirt across the southern half of the
forecast area today, as a surface low passes to our south across
Kansas. Rain chances will diminish by 6 PM this evening. Patchy fog
may develop overnight where rain fell across parts of southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Behind the departing low, a subtle upper ridge moves into the the
southern plains Sunday, keeping us warm and dry through the
remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Highs on Sunday
and Monday are forecast to span the low to mid 60s. Dry conditions
prevailing over northeast Nebraska will allow relative humidities to
dip to 20-30% in a few locations. Combined with the warm
temperatures, this could lead to a region of Very High Fire Danger.
Thankfully, winds will remain relatively light, at 5-10 mph and
gusting to 20 mph, which should help mitigate some fire weather
concerns.

Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching
shortwave will bring a surge of even warmer air Tuesday, with the
majority of the forecast area expected to reach into the upper 60s
and low 70s. Breezier south winds and relative humidities falling to
20 to 40 percent across the majority of the forecast area will bring
an even greater risk for Very High to Extreme Fire Danger Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

The previously mentioned shortwave and resulting surface low will
pass through the Dakotas Tuesday, potentially resulting in another
round of showers, this time passing over the northern half of the
forecast area Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
Temperatures look to remain warm again Wednesday, reaching into the
60s, with cooler highs in the 50s where showers and cloud cover
lingers over northeast Nebraska.

Even drier air will move in behind the departing system Wednesday
afternoon. Locations that miss the rainfall will likely see an
additional day of Very High Fire danger, where winds gust up to 20-
25 mph and minimum RH bottoms out around 15-25%.

Thursday and Beyond...

Cooler, moist air won`t arrive until Thursday and Friday, as the
main trough passes through the Central Plains. High temperatures are
expected to dip into the 40s and 50s late this week, which is still
10 to 15 degrees above normal for late February. This system will
create another surface low with the potential to bring precipitation
across the region. Cold air wrapping around the backside of this low
could transition rain over to snow Thursday afternoon and into
Friday. The best chance for any accumulating snow currently looks to
be over far northeast Nebraska Thursday into Friday. However, this
far out, model consensus on system strength, location, and timing
remains too low to nail down all of the details just yet. Stay tuned
to future forecast updates as model agreement increases.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

MVFR cigs have broken up across the area, leaving VFR
conditions. There are some stratus hanging along the KS/MO state
lines at FL040. Expect these to slowly slide south over the
course of the evening. Fog development is expected in these same areas
with visibility expected to slip below a mile. KOMA is forecast
to remain unaffected, but KLNK is forecast to fall to MVFR vis
by 11Z and LIFR by 13Z Sunday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

970
FXUS63 KGID 142335
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
535 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The last of today`s rain showers will soon come to an end,
  finally clearing out of the areas south of HWY-6 and east of
  HWY-183 this afternoon.

- Areas of fog developing tonight should mainly stay south of
  I-80. Though a few patches of dense fog may be possible, the
  probability for dense fog becoming widespread is limited
  (20-50% chance).

- Drying conditions with the continuation of seasonably warm temperatures
  will reignite some fire-weather potential both Sunday and
  especially Tuesday afternoon. A red flag warning will be in
  effect from noon until 6PM Sunday for a few south central
  Nebraska counties. Please refer to the Fire Weather Section
  for more information.

- The next precipitation potential currently lies Tuesday night
  (10-30% chance) with slighter better potential
  Thursday/Friday (20-40% chances). Light snow may be possible
  Thursday into Friday morning.

- Temperatures will stay between the 60s and 70s through
  Wednesday before taking a slide down to the 40s to low 50s
  from Thursday and through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026


Only a few remaining showers linger across southwest portions of the
area this afternoon (mainly south of HWY-6 and east of HWY-183). The
last of these rain showers will quickly dissipate this evening,
followed by clearing skies across the rest of the night. Residual
moisture with expected light to calm winds overnight may help allow
some some fog to form. The overall best potential for fog will be
concentrated towards portions of the area that received more
meaningful precipitation amounts today (areas south of I-80).
Though a few denser patches of fog may arise (20-30% HREF & 20-50%
REFS chances), it is not certain that coverage will spread enough to
provoke the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

A surface low, situated across the Southern Plains today, will
continue to move east tonight and tomorrow. Higher pressure will
rebound in the low`s wake, turning the surface winds towards the
southeast for Sunday. Aloft, a ridge will start to move in overhead,
bringing some stabilization and drier conditions to the area. Steady
10-20 MPH southwest downsloping winds (adiabatic warming) paired
with clearing skies Sunday (diurnal warming) should allow
temperatures to spread up and into the mid to upper 60s. A handful
of northwestern lying locations can`t be completely ruled out to
break into the low 70s even (10-20% chance).

A few clouds rolling in Monday should not dampen this warming trend
as southerly light warming winds will be expected to maintain along
with deep subsidence aloft from the upper-level riding pattern.
Highs for the week are favored to peak Tuesday (70s) with gusty
southwesterly winds (25-35MPH) cranking up the downslope warming
trend. Fire Weather concerns return to the area Sunday afternoon
with an even stronger potential Tuesday afternoon. A Red Flag
Warning will be in effect for Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Sherman and
Valley counties from noon until 6PM Sunday afternoon. Please refer
to the Fire Weather section for more information.

The next major pattern change up will take place near the middle of
next week as a powering southwest jet launches up into the Central
Plains. This feature will stir up conditions locally as well as
bring a few precipitation chances to the area. The next chance of
precipitation (15-30% chance) resides across our northeastern areas
Tuesday night as a surface low is expected to slice across the
Northern Plains.

A cold front passing sometime Wed/Thur will chop highs back to the
40s to low 50s through the end of the week. For now, we keep our
eyes on the precipitation potential for Thursday into Friday (20-40%
chances) as falling temperatures could reintroduce some snow to
parts of the area. Any additional details regarding snow potential
remains limited as this event is still beyond 5 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Light easterly winds will transition to the west by 06z. Winds
will be out of the south to southwest by 18z then will be
southerly by 00z. Wind gusts up to around 20 knots are possible
around 21z. There is a slight chance (20% or less) of low
ceilings beginning around 03z and continuing until around 09z.
Fog is also possible from around 03z to 15z but confidence is
not high enough to include at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026


Mostly sunny skies with dry and warm air advecting downslope winds
will help move temperatures up into the mid to upper 60s for Sunday
afternoon. In addition, subsiding air underneath a ridge moving in
from the west, should also help boost temperatures (adiabatic
warming). Dry air may mix down some during the day, leaving
dewpoints in the mid 20s and 30s. Relative humidity values in the
afternoon will drop to as low as 15-30% for locations along and
north of Interstate 80 as well as locations south of the interstate
and west of the Tri-Cities (60-70% confidence). The southwest winds
will be expected to blow between 10-20MPH during the afternoon with
gusts as high as 25-30MPH possible (40-50% chance). The strongest
gusts will mainly be concentrated towards locations closer to the
Nebraska Sandhills. Overall, Red Flag conditions Sunday afternoon
are more on the marginal side of the spectrum as wind gusts only
expected to just barely meet criteria.

The potentially gusty afternoon winds mixed with RH values as low as
15% will provoke critical fire weather conditions across a few
northwestern portions of the area. Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Sherman
and Valley counties are included under a Red Flag Warning from noon
until 6PM Sunday. These locations will have the best potential to
see critical fire weather conditions (50-60% chance) with minimum
relative humidity values as low as 15-20%. Near-critical fire
weather conditions will remain possible across several locations
outside of the warning and primarily north of I-80 as well as areas
south of the interstate and west of the Tri-Cities (locations with
the lowest expected RH values).

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely to
return to the area Tuesday afternoon (50-80%). Our latest forecast
projects southwest winds to blow between 15-25 MPH with gusts as
high as 30-35MPH across the full area. Min relative humidity values
are likely to bottom out between 10-30% with the best potential for
critical fire weather conditions across areas along and west of HWY-
281. Assuming that our forecast does not change much, given these
dry and gusty conditions, the need for a fire weather product closer
in time looks very likely.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Sunday for NEZ039-046-
     060-072-082.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion