Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

107
FXUS63 KOAX 151011
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for
  Monday, with spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two possible
  after 10 PM.

- Our next notable chance for any thunderstorms appears to be
  on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western
  Iowa.

- Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire
  danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this evening despite a shortwave
trough spinning through along the NE/SD border. It was leading
to some sprinkles/light rain in north-central into northeast NE
and these should continue across the forecast area. That said,
with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s and many model soundings
showing a fair amount of dry air just above the surface, not
expecting much to reach the ground. We`ll stay under
northwesterly flow aloft on Monday with westerly surface flow
helping to warm us up a bit compared to today. Expect highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will push into and
through the area Monday evening into early Tuesday with guidance
in good agreement that we`ll have at least spotty showers and
perhaps a few storms ahead of it. Instability looks pretty
limited, so they shouldn`t be too impactful. Surface high
pressure behind the front should lead to a quiet day once the
front pushes southeast, likely by 7-8 AM.

Wednesday remains the day with potential impactful weather as a
trough continues to deepen over the central CONUS and an upper
level jet starts to nose into the area. At the surface, an area
of low pressure will push east across the Dakotas/NE with
southerly flow ahead of it ushering in warm, moist air to the
forecast area. However, latest guidance suggests a cold front
and dry air will quickly push through the area during the day,
limiting warm sector severe weather potential in our area to
extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. In fact, most guidance
favors storm development staying to our southeast completely.
Still, ingredients will be there for all severe weather hazards,
so if progression of the system slows at all, our severe
weather threat will ramp up quite a bit. In addition, the
aforementioned dry air combined with gusty northwest winds
behind the front will lead to some fire weather concerns in
northeast NE, where they have missed out on much of the recent
rainfall. EPS mean wind gusts are around 40 mph while RH is
progged to dip into the lower 20s. Otherwise, prior to the
front`s arrival, temperatures look to top out in the upper 80s
to mid 90s, but of course this will depend on exact timing of
the system passing through.

Thursday will be cooler behind the front, as we top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Some guidance hints that northeast
NE/west-central IA could be clipped by some weak shortwave
energy/light rain, but amounts would likely be very limited, if
it happens at all. Southerly flow returns Friday and should warm
us back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. We`ll also see
periodic shower and storm chances into the weekend as a surface
low spins up over eastern CO and moisture transport points into
the area, while shortwave energy also slides through. However,
still lots of details to be worked out in this timeframe with
quite a bit of spread in guidance on timing and track of various
features.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with a few
passing clouds through the day. Calm winds will become westerly
around 0-5kts through 16Z, increasing to around 10-15kts. The
terminal is currently expected to remain dry today; however,
there is some expected shower/thunderstorm activity to the
southeast toward KLNK and KOMA. A couple of models are trying to
bring this further north toward KOFK, but held off from putting
this into prevailing conditions for the time being. The best
chance for this occurring would be after 02Z.

KOMA/KLNK: VFR conditions persist at the terminals through the
forecast period. Light and variable winds continue through
around 15Z at KOMA and 16-17Z at KLNK, becoming westerly around
8-13kts. Expect a few passing clouds through the day at both
terminals. There is a 20-30% chance of a spotty shower or
thunderstorm impacting the terminals between 03Z and 08Z.
There is still some uncertainty on timing and coverage, so the
mention was omitted from prevailing conditions for the time
being.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

758
FXUS63 KGID 151116
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
616 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely drive Mon-Fri work week.

- Seasonal temperatures either side of normal (tad cooler, tad
  warmer, tad cooler) with a comfortable airmass thanks to lower
  dewpoints (though likely a bit higher late Tuesday/early
  Wednesday)

- Honestly, the next shot for decent showers/storms comes next
  weekend, possibly late Friday night, but more likely Satudray
  night, and it may include the for strong to severe storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The early morning weather map depicted surface high pressure
near Scottsbluff Nebraska and ridging its way southeast into
northern Kansas. Skies were clear or mostly clear with some
mid clouds still streaming in from northeast Colorado and
across southwest Nebraska. A weak upper short wave was moving
southeast into western Iowa and spreading weak subsidence into
south central Nebraska. Temperatures are cool again this
morning, ranging from 50 to 60 degrees.

As the key messages mention, the Monday-Friday work is "mostly"
dry. The exception is tonight when another upper shortwave,
with a bit more "umph" and a weak front slides southeast
across the region. A weak south/southwest low level jet (LLJ)
forms ahead of the surface front with some low end MuCape and
CAMS models suggesting at least non-zero chance for isolated
showers or even a rumble of thunder after 10 PM. The forecast
reflects this with a 15-25% type rain chance. This seems most
likely to occur southeast of Hastings. Rain amounts will be
minimal, such as trace to a few hundredths, and very sparse
overall.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, and Tuesday will be a
particularly nice day. The late Monday night front will shift
winds to the north Tuesday morning, but winds will quickly
return to the south by evening...ahead of the next front set to
push through the area Wednesday morning. Though the front is
stronger and it will pull more moisture back into the region
late Tuesday night, warming in the mid-levels will act as a cap,
and force development of thunderstorms well east of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Look for a much
warmer night Tuesday night (lows in the 60s) and a quick warmup
Wednesday as fairly strong west/northwest winds mix the lower
atmosphere. However, we have lowered temperatures a touch (still
above 90 many areas) with the idea that there is decent cold
advection as early as late morning and lasting through the
afternoon/evening. High temperatures Wednesday may well go lower
by a few degrees with subsequent forecasts. Winds are probably
underdone for Wednesday afternoon giving the strong downward
momentum transfer and even "old-timer" numerical guidance
suggesting 30-35 mph wind gusts are possible, if not likely.

After the midweek cold front passes, temperatures dip back to
slightly below normal Thursday with sunshine, comfortable
dewpoints and a north breeze. Friday will be dry but becomes a
transition day as southernly winds return, low-level moisture
slowly increases and and temperatures sneak up into the middle
and upper 80s.

On Friday night, there are early signs LLJ will form and start
to push more unstable air north overnight which may result in
some overnight thunderstorms. This scenario seems more likely
Saturday night as a strong southerly flow sets up across
Central Plains thanks to surface low pressure and a shortwave
moving east across the Dakotas. Precipitation chances look
pretty good at this point, centered mostly on Saturday night
night, keeping in mind this has been a trend in the models for
at last a few days. If this timing holds, another front would
push across the area on Fathers Day continuing the rain chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

There will be a few opportunities for sprinkles or light rain
showers this week, but widespread or "meaningful" rain is not
expected. The 12Z global ensembles show a 60-90% chance for less
than 0.10" of total rainfall through Friday.

The first opportunity for sprinkles will be tonight into Monday
morning, followed by another opportunity for spotty showers and
weak t-storms Monday night.

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek (90s to low 100s
on Wed). That said, humidity remains quite low through
Wednesday, so heat index values should remain below 100 degrees
for the entire area. A shortwave will move through the region
on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain/t-storms should remain
to our east. This shortwave will bump temperatures down a bit
for Thursday, but near to above- normal temperatures return for
the weekend.

Ensembles continue to advertise reasonably high chances for
rain/t-storms returning next weekend (June 20-21st) as a
shortwave moves through the central/northern Plains. Of course,
details remain pretty uncertain at this time range, this could
feature at least some severe weather. The 00Z CSU-MLP severe
probs have a 5% contour across much of the region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Still looking at VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Westerly winds during the day today may gust to
18-20kts at times this afternoon but eventually drop off
by evening and back to the south a bit ahead of a weak
frontal boundary. That front will pass about midnight
tonight and shift winds back to the north/northwest.
Expect only periods of mid/high levels passing by,
probably a bit thicker toward the later half of the
forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion