73°F
Updated:
7/14/2025
11:31:41pm

Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
705 FXUS63 KOAX 150332 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1032 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and humid through Tuesday. - There is a 50-80% chance of storms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, with a 10-20% chance of severe storms, especially in northeast Nebraska. The primary threats are damaging winds and localized flooding, but some hail is also possible. - Additional rounds of storms will continue Wednesday into early Thursday, and again Friday evening into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times, with the threat of flooding increasing with each successive round. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Tuesday and Wednesday... Midlevel ridging over the region helped maintain dry conditions today. Winds remained light and southwesterly at 5-15 mph this afternoon, as highs climbed towards 90 degrees. Temperatures will dip back into the upper 60s tonight before rebounding back into the upper 80s and low 90s again tomorrow. Meanwhile, a trough will begin to dig into the northern CONUS, eventually dragging a cold front into the region by late Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will surge back into the upper 60s and low 70s, with steepening midlevel lapse rates. 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will pool ahead ahead of the boundary by 00Z Tuesday. Expect storms to develop near the NE/SD border tomorrow afternoon, and quickly grow upscale into an MCS. Initial storms over far northeast Nebraska could be capable of producing large hail, with marginal bulk shear vectors up to 30 kts. But again this will likely be limited by the storms converging into a line and developing a cold pool, resulting in damaging winds becoming the primary threat. The complex should gradually weaken as it moves southeast, and daytime heating wanes. Spotty showers and storms will linger into Wednesday morning. Overall, the forecast for Wednesday will be dictated by where the convective remnants, like left over boundaries and cloud cover from Tuesday night shake out. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to where the main front ends up Wednesday. At the moment, several models have it just to our south, limiting storm potential. However, should it lift back north as a warm front, as a few of the previous runs suggest, we could be in for another round of storms Wednesday evening. MUCAPE could reach over 2000 J/kg south of the front, however storms` longevity will once again be limited by the lack of robust shear. While neither Tuesday nor Wednesday are giving extreme heavy rain potential, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to some localized flooding issues, due in part to our already saturated soils. Thursday and Beyond... A few showers and storms could again linger into Thursday. The location of these would again be dependent on the location of the front, but the highest chance currently looks to be over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overall, drier conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast area on Thursday. Additionally, temperatures will be noticeably cooler. Highs will dip from the mid/upper 80s on Wednesday to the mid/upper 70s on Thursday. Temperatures rebound back into the 80s and possibly low 90s, as a shortwave moves in from the Rockies Friday. This disturbance will bring yet another marginal chance for strong to severe storms, with the potential for ample instability but low shear. This unsettled pattern continues with multiple shortwaves bringing additional off- and-on chances through the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds will contain at 8-12 kts, with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible at KOFK Tuesday afternoon. High clouds will grow in coverage through the afternoon. Towards the end of the forecast period (03-06Z), a thunderstorm complex is expected to push into northeast NE and impact KOFK. A wind shift to northeasterly is expected with the passage as well as an approaching deck of clouds at FL040-060. Stronger wind gusts will be possible, though confidence is low in timing and coverage at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Wood
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
778 FXUS63 KGID 142346 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 646 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot on Tuesday with heat index values as high as of 100-102 degrees in southern parts of the area. - A line of thunderstorms is expected to move northwest to southeast across the area Tuesday night. This could produce damaging wind and isolated damaging hail, mainly in the 8pm to 2am timeframe. - Thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday evening, and a few of these could become strong to severe as well, particularly over northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska. - Cooler and mostly dry on Thursday, then warming up with off/on thunderstorm chances Friday night through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Skies remain mostly clear across the area with only some spotty afternoon cumulus beginning to develop as of 2pm. Temperatures are on-track to top out in the 90s across the entire area this afternoon. Any convection that develops over CO/WY should remain well to our northwest through tonight. On Tuesday, southerly flow increases as a shortwave approaches the area. This should allow for another day of temperatures in the 90s and even low 100s in southwestern parts of the area. Increasing low-level moisture will also likely result in heat index values in the 100-102 range for portions of northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska. By late Tuesday afternoon, scattered convection should develop over the Nebraska panhandle near and ahead of a cold front. Nearly all CAMs develop this into one or more southeasterly-moving lines. This would then reach northwestern portions of the forecast area (Lexington to Ord) by around 8-9pm. Most of the HREF members (except WRF-ARW) favor this convection remaining severe through most of, if not all of the forecast area. As such, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to cover more of the forecast area. Given the convective mode, wind would be the primary threat, although some severe hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest cores as well. Locally heavy rain could be an issue for areas with saturated soils, but storms should have enough forward speed to avoid a significant flooding concern. For Wednesday, the passage of the cold front will lead to cooler temperatures for most. The exception will be southeastern portions of the area where temperatures again reach the 90s as the cold front stalls over northern Kansas. Exact details remain somewhat uncertain, and are dependent on how Tuesday night plays out, but scattered storms (some strong to severe) are expected to redevelop Wednesday evening. The highest risk area is near the stalled front in KS and far southern Nebraska, but there is some risk for these to lift a bit further northward as well. Slower storm motions along the stalled boundary could lead to localized heavy rainfall as well. Thursday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass. In fact, it could end up being one of the coolest days of the month with high temperatures only in the mid 70s to low 80s. Global ensembles and the NBM linger some low (10-30%) PoPs over southern portions of the area, but most of the area will remain dry. Upper level ridging returns on Friday into the weekend, pushing temperatures back into the 80s and 90s. A series of weak disturbances traversing the ridge will bring off and on thunderstorm chances to the area (mainly during the overnight hours). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: This is a very-high confidence period regarding VFR ceiling/visibility and staying rain/thunderstorm-free, with only mainly limited coverage of passing high level clouds. Winds will remain consistently southerly, and become a little breezy during the day Tuesday (more details below). HEADS UP NOTE: Within the first 6 hours BEYOND this valid TAF period, a line of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms is possible later Tuesday evening...more info on this in later TAFs. - Wind details: Generally southerly direction will persist throughout the period. Speeds this evening-overnight mainly under 10KT, but a modest uptick will occur Tuesday daytime with the overall- strongest speeds concentrated 17-22Z (sustained around 15KT/gusts up to around 22KT). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Pfannkuch
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