Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

418
FXUS63 KOAX 301857
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
157 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in eastern
  Nebraska this afternoon. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern.

- A line of thunderstorms is likely to move across the region
  later tonight into Friday morning. Damaging wind will be
  possible with the initial line of storms, along with heavy
  rain and small hail.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in
  the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A shortwave rounding the pinnacle of the central CONUS ridge has
been producing showers across eastern Nebraska today. The
environment has been conducive to heavy rain as moisture has
been advecting from the Gulf over the past 36+ hours. PWAT
values are anomalous for the season at about 2" which is in the
99th percentile for late July / early August (NAEFS).

The northern half of the area continues to record rain this
afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-3" (and one report of 5") an
hour were reported around sunrise. With a broad shield of
precip, localized areas of heavy rain are becoming less common.
Still, two gauges just south of Plainview, NE (Antelope County)
have reported over 5" since midnight with 2-3" common in the
rest of the county over the same time period. We`re finally
getting some eastward motion with this area, allowing for some
clearing over the wettest spots. This should allow for the
development of notable instability by this evening. Still, the
cloud cover encouraged me to lower forecast highs in most
locations by a couple of degrees today.

.TONIGHT...

The HRRR has offered a couple of solutions over the course of
the day today, but has currently resorted back to the original
theory of convecting along the cold front diving into north
central Nebraska this evening.

Current sfc analysis reveals a sfc low in south-central South
Dakota and another in northeast Kansas. The trof between the two
(and the differential heating provided by today`s cloud cover)
should provide a corridor for tonight`s prospective MCS. While
supercells may be the first mode noted in south-central SD,
upscale growth into a convective cluster is expected as the
storms push into Nebraska.

Perhaps because of this cloud cover and the baroclinicity it
produces, model runs have been driving the strongest winds a bit
farther west than yesterday`s did. CAM guidance has very little
"severe" wind coming from tonight`s line of storms, especially
east of central Nebraska. While diminishing, the primary threat
remains damaging wind. Hail and tornadoes are unlikely. I expect
this system to have a hard time maintaining shear/cold pool
balance. With shear numbers near 20 knots, the cold pool may
quickly outrun the complex.

The best chance of seeing any severe warnings/damage will be
between 7pm and 10pm with the last of the storms pushing out of
the southern CWA by 3am (although no longer likely to be
severe).

Heavy rain is expected as warm cloud depths are near 15k feet
and PWATs are cranked. The WPC believes there`s a 15% chance of
flash flooding within 25 miles any given point and closer to
25-30% chance in northeast Nebraska given today`s earlier rain.
Thankfully, the progressive nature of the line of storms should
limit residence time over any given place and help keep that
threat to a minimum. Flooding will likely depend on any training
elements.

.FRIDAY...

Behind the system, both dewpoints and temps will slip a couple
of degrees. Temps in the upper-70s and lower-80s are 5-10
degrees cooler than normal. A few wrap-around showers are
possible in northeast Nebraska and western Iowa and winds there
will be breezier under the H5 comma-head. Skies will clear over
the course of the day as the showers end and the system departs.

Temperatures slowly warm toward seasonal norms by early next
week as ridging noses back over the area from the southwest.
Global models are in agreement that a deep Canadian low will
sweep west to east and try to drag a cold front through the
Dakotas. It will get hung up somewhere around here and bring a
chance of showers and t-storms Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Have dramatically changed the timing of the thunderstorm chances
based on latest model trends. Older models still have the
primary wave of storms pushing through the area between mostly
8pm and midnight, but the latest guidance has the current
showers and storms near OFK pushing southeast this
afternoon/early evening. Have opted to go with this route
although the previous timing remains possible (about 5 hours
later than current forecasts). Expect heavy rain to reduce
visibility with any storms. Vis may slip under 2 miles with
heaviest downpours.

Patchy fog/haze may develop early Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

135
FXUS63 KGID 301933
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A line of strong to severe storms is on track to cross from
  northwest to southeast across the full area between mainly 7PM
  and 1AM tonight.

- The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging
  wind gusts up to 60-70MPH. Though not the main concern, hail
  up to the size of quarters may also be possible.

- The next chance of precipitation (20-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night for central Nebraska.

- Highs will range the 80s on Friday and Saturday, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of the new week (upper 80s and
  90s).

- Northerly wind gusts Friday afternoon could peak as high as
  30-45MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026


Tonight...

Steady southerly winds gusting as high as 20MPH early this afternoon
have helped advect in a warmer and more humid airmass today (70s to
low 80s dewpoints). Despite the excessive cloud coverage for most of
the day so far, temperatures still look to remain mostly on track to
reach the mid 80s to low 90s for much of central Nebraska.
Temperatures across some north central Kansas locations and far
southwest Nebraska areas may peak as high as the mid to upper 90s
today. The main story, however, will be of the potential for severe
weather this evening.

An upper-level shortwave trough ejecting out from eastern
Colorado/Wyoming this afternoon has lead to some mid-level pressure
falls as well as some vorticity and cold air advection across the
region. The warming temperatures at the surface paired with cooling
aloft has helped increase instability/buoyancy (up to 2,000-
3,500J/kg of MUCAPE). A 1004mb surface low deepening across central
Nebraska this evening will help steer frontogenesis across central
Nebraska and central Kansas. A cold front emerging from this process
will in turn help develop a cluster of storms. Storms organizing
into a line this afternoon, will be expected to drive southeast
through much of the area between mainly 7PM and 1AM tonight. As of
2PM today, this line of storms looks to be already taking shape in
cherry county in Nebraska based on the latest radar reflectivity
returns and the agitated cumulus observed on satellite.

A few of these storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with damaging winds being the primary concern. Given the
presence of modest deep layer shear (25-40MPH) with sufficient
instability and moisture, the base ingredients will be met for
severe storm characteristics. Though hail up to the size of quarters may
still be possible within a few of the stronger/taller storms, the
high freezing levels with more unfavorable mid-level lapse rates (5-
6C/km), should generally keep the hail threat more limited tonight.
In addition, though heavy downpours will be expected within several
of these storms (1.5-2" PWATS), given their fairly progressive
nature, the overall flooding threat should remain limited. The Storm
Prediction Center now includes the full area in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather.


Friday through Wednesday...

Following the exit of the storms tonight, the forecast remains dry
until Tuesday night (20-50% chances for central Nebraska). This
drier pattern will come as southwest U.S. ridging expands northeast
into the Central Plains over the weekend. The surface low pulling
east and away on Friday will leave behind gusty northerly winds that
may peak as high as 30-45MPH during the afternoon. Meanwhile, drier
and relatively "cooler" temperatures with keep highs peaking in the
80s for both Friday and Saturday. Higher pressure eventually
settling back in over the weekend will lighten winds with
directions becoming southerly again by Sunday. The start of the new
week will bring warming temperatures once more with highs returning
back to the mid 80s and 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Broken to overcast skies will be expected to retain across much
of the period. Ceilings as of 17z are hovering near
2,500-3,000ft. Cloud bases will gradually rise between 18-0z
(height back up to near 8,000-15,000ft), before lowering across
the evening and overnight hours. Ceilings will be likely to
drop back below 3,000ft after 6z with low end MVFR to IFR
heights retaining across much of the 8-15z timeframe. In
addition, visibility reductions from thunderstorms between 2-5z
will be followed by some light visibility reductions through
mainly 13z.

The best window for thunderstorms this evening will fall
between 2 and 5z. A gust front out ahead of the storms will be
expected to abruptly shift southeast wind directions from the
southeast to the northwest. Though speeds up to 30kts with gusts
as high as 50kts may be possible, it is more likely to be
short-lived as the front end of the storms roll through.
Otherwise gusts out of the southeast this afternoon should not
exceed 25kts. After the wind directions flip northwestward,
speeds may near 15kts during the late Friday morning with gusts
approaching 30kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion