Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

852
FXUS63 KOAX 121743
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1243 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of far northeast
  Nebraska through 9 pm for extreme fire conditions.

- Thursday will bring the potential for more fire weather
  concerns as gusty winds and low RH values will be in place
  over portions of the area.

- Low chances (20-40%) for showers and storms on Thursday with
  better chances for rain holding off until Saturday night
  through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Partly cloudy skies this afternoon with a cold front moving
south across eastern Nebraska bringing a shift to northwesterly
winds and breezy conditions this afternoon. Strongest winds will
be in northeast Nebraska, combining with dry conditions to
create extreme fire danger for these counties. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for the counties where extreme fire danger
is expected.

The upper-level pattern shows a ridge over the Inter-Mountain
West with a weak trough moving across the Northern Plains. This
trough is what is bringing the cold front through this
afternoon. While we`re seeing echoes on radar, dry conditions
near the surface will dry anything out before reaching the
ground.

As we go into Wednesday the ridge continue to shift eastward
building into eastern Nebraska. Subsidence beneath the ridge
will lead to clear skies with temperatures warming back into the
upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions once
more with humidity dropping to 15-20 percent combined with dry
fuels will lead to Very High Fire Danger for northeast Nebraska,
but lighter winds will keep conditions from becoming extreme.

Thursday could bring extreme fire conditions back to northeast
Nebraska as a trough moving into the Northern Plains will
increase the pressure gradient across our area leading to
stronger southerly winds Thursday afternoon. While southerly
winds will be bringing in a little more moisture, humidity still
is forecast to drop to 20 to 30 percent Thursday afternoon. This
combined with winds gusting 30 to 35 mph, possibly as high as 40
mph in northeast Nebraska may lead to extreme fire conditions
once again.

With the trough moving through we could also see a few showers
or storms mainly in far northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa.
Moisture will be anemic, though, so expect most of anything to
evaporate before hitting the ground, similar to what we saw this
morning.

Upper-level pattern becomes more zonal starting Friday as a
system over central Canada pushes the Jet Stream south while the
Subtropical Ridge flattens the flow regime. This will keep
weather fairly quiet while a strengthening low-level jet
advects in very warm temperatures out of Texas and Oklahoma.
This will warm up afternoon highs on Friday into the upper 80s
to mid 90s.

Over the weekend, a deepening upper-level trough moves into the
PacNW, only reinforcing southwesterly flow across our area with
summer-like temperatures expected to hold Saturday and Sunday.
As the trough approaches on Saturday, we start to see moisture
advect into the region from the Gulf. This combined with a
shortwave ejecting east out of the trough brings a round of
shower and storm chances Saturday night into Sunday. A more
substantial trough brings an even better chance for showers and
storm Sunday night into Monday.

Looking further ahead at the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks,
those looking for rain may be very interested to know that both
outlooks show a wetter pattern setting up for next week. Model
guidance aligns with this showing a much more active regime. We
certainly could use more substantial rainfall.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A cold front is moving
through this afternoon bringing a wind shift to north-
northwesterly winds with gusts 25 to 35 kt. Strongest winds will
be in northeast Nebraska. Winds will drop off around 01-03Z this
evening, staying light out of the northwest into Wednesday.
Scattered clouds this afternoon will become mostly clear this
evening and stay mostly clear into Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

206
FXUS63 KGID 121736
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 9 PM today
  for most of our western counties where sufficient "green up"
  has not yet occurred due to the ongoing severe to exceptional
  drought.

- Well above normal temperatures (10-20 degrees above normal)
  combined with a dry airmass and occasionally breezy/windy
  conditions will result in additional near critical to critical
  fire weather conditions through at least this weekend.

- Rain chances are generally slim to none most of this week,
  with the best chance (30-50%) being Saturday or Sunday
  depending on the timing of the next storm system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The primary forecast concern centers around near critical to
critical fire weather conditions almost every day across at
least portions of our forecast area. Please see the updated
"Fire Weather" section below for additional detailed
information regarding daily fire weather concerns (RH/wind).

Today...
An upper level trough tracking from Minnesota into the Great
Lakes will have an associated cold front racing through our
forecast area this morning. However, the airmass behind the
cold front is only a few degrees cooler, so going from mid 80s
yesterday to lower 80s today. We were breezy out of the
southwest on Monday, now we will be breezy out of the north
today (gusts 25-35 mph). RH values will again be very low this
afternoon bottoming out between 15-20%. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued for most areas that have not experienced sufficient
"green up" due to the ongoing drought.

Wednesday...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will track across
our forecast area. Warm/dry weather (highs in the 80s) will
persist with light winds in the morning and then gradually
increasing southerly winds across western zones during the
afternoon as the surface high slides east.

Thursday...
Don`t get your hopes up for rain with some of those low
confidence 20% chances. Most if not all areas will probably
remain dry.

Friday through Sunday...
The 00Z ECMWF is slowing the next upper trough down, which may
result in better rain chances on Sunday than on Saturday
depending on if this trend holds. Right now our forecast splits
the difference with the highest rain chances being Saturday
night. This could be a decent upper trough and probably our best
real chance at rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A noticably warmer and windy day has been realized across the
local area with many locations climbing into the mid-80s the
past few hours. With southwest winds gusting near 40 MPH at
times, critical fire weather concerns are being observed across
much of the area, and anticipate the Red Flag warning to remain
in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A weak cold front is expected to rapidly push south across the
area by Tuesday morning, bringing with it a shift in winds and
a continuation of dry air in its wake. While temperatures may
be a few degrees cooler behind this front, the main impact will
be the breezy north winds that will sweep across the local area
through the daytime hours. These breezy winds...gusting to near
35 MPH...will combine with low relative humidity values to
promote another afternoon with heightened fire weather concerns.

High pressure aloft will then push back across the local area
for Wednesday and Thursday, helping temperatures climb to near
or over 90 degrees by Thursday afternoon. At the same time
Thursday, winds will increase significantly out of the south
ahead of the next system, with gusts over 40 MPH anticipated for
the afternoon hours. As the front approaches the local area,
could see a return to some widely scattered Thunderstorm
Thursday afternoon or evening firing up near the dry line to our
west, but little if any precip is anticipated locally. While
the main upper level low is then anticipated to pass well to
our north on Friday, the associated front should cross the area
bringing with it another shift in wind direction, but likely no
noticeable cool-down.

Better chances for precip then return over the upcoming weekend
as a stronger upper level trough and front reach the area
Saturday afternoon/evening. This system will likely provide the
forcing for more active weather across the local area, with the
potential for a few severe storms not out of the question. Will
continue to monitor, but the day 6 SPC outlook brings the 15%
severe line just a few counties south of our local coverage area
and model soundings indicate plenty of instability and shear
across the local area for some organized elevated storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty out of the north this afternoon with gusts generally
between 20 to 25 knots. Winds will weaken this evening to around
5 knots out of the north. Winds will become southeasterly by
15z Wednesday and will strengthen some (5 to 10 knots).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today...
A cold front will race southeast across the forecast area this
morning resulting in gusty northwest winds (25-35 mph) and drier
air (afternoon RH values of 15-20%). Therefore, a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for most of our western counties where sufficient
"green up" has not yet occurred due to the ongoing (severe D2) to
(exceptional D4) drought conditions.

Wednesday...
Afternoon min RH values will once again fall into the 15-20% range.
However, an area of surface high pressure will slide east across the
area resulting in lighter surface winds especially in the morning and
across eastern zones throughout the day. Stronger southerly winds
(25-30 mph) are expected across our far western zones (Dawson to
Furnas Counties) by mid to late afternoon. Therefore, we may need
another Red Flag Warning for our far west on Wednesday, or it will at
least be very close to Red Flag conditions.

Thursday...
RH values will be a bit higher (20-30%) and the stronger winds
(30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher and
then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon.

Friday...
Currently appears to be drier with RH values around or below 20%, but
with lighter winds (20%) back
into the region.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-
     017-018.
     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion