82°F
Updated:
7/1/2026
8:52:26pm
Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
227 FXUS63 KOAX 012303 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 603 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures continue through the week. The hottest days look to be Friday and Saturday with heat indices up to 100-105. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight, particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms that develop. - Additional severe storms possible Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday evening. - Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of rain and storms waits for the evening of the 4th of July. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Today and Tonight... Morning warm air advection gave a boost to showers and storms across northeast Nebraska, causing them to outperform model expectations. Showers and storms decreased in coverage as support from a passing shortwave shifts east this afternoon. Southerly flow along the backside of the ridge dominating the eastern CONUS will bring another day of heat to the region. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the upper 80s. Warm temps combined with humidity, enhanced by local corn sweat, will drive heat indicies towards 100. Thankfully, lingering cloud cover from the morning convection will at least bring some relief to the area, likely preventing us from reaching Heat Advisory criteria again this afternoon. Another round of strong to severe storms looks to develop over northern Iowa this evening, potentially snaking back across northeast Nebraska. Plenty of instability will be available, although shear will be somewhat weak at only 20-30 kts throughout the layer. A few storms could be capable of producing large hail and strong winds through the evening and overnight hours, as highlighted by SPC`s Marginal Risk across the northwestern half of the CWA. Thursday... Another round of storms, associated with a potential MCV moving out of Kansas, is expected to develop Thursday morning around 8-9 AM. While overall shear may be somewhat limited, enhancement from the MCV could lead to a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Cloud cover associated with morning showers and storms will once again mitigate some of the heat effects Thursday afternoon. Highs will likely top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, with heat indices remaining at or below 100. Thursday evening, additional severe storms could impact the area in 2 different ways. The first and more likely scenario, if you believe the latest CAMs, would be in the form of an MCS diving southeast out of South Dakota, through northeast Nebraska and into western Iowa. This could bring the potential for large hail, however damaging winds would likely be the main threat. The other potential solution would be for a couple of strong, isolated supercells to develop prior to the MCS passage. Should these storms develop in the evening, when shear increases, they would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Friday... Storms are currently expected to clear the forecast area early Friday morning, making way for another round of intense heat to push in from the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low and mid 90s, however it will feel like 100-105 across much of the area, potentially necessitating another Heat headline. An outflow boundary lingering over northeast Nebraska could become the focus for yet another round of strong to severe storms Friday evening into Friday night. However, this threat will be more dependent on how quickly morning storms move out and the recovery of the airmass in the region. Saturday (4th of July)... The heat stays on for the 4th, as highs remain in the low to mid 90s, with heat indicies touching the low 100s. So be sure to stock those coolers with plenty of water, in addition to other beverages. A poorly timed shortwave looks to push into the region Saturday evening and overnight, as mother nature offers her own fireworks show. While it`s too soon to really nail down the timing, so far the best chance for showers and storms (40-60%) looks to arrive between 7PM and 1 AM Saturday evening. While I wouldn`t cancel fireworks plans just yet, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast if you have holiday plans. Sunday and Beyond... Off and on storm chances look to continue through Sunday and into early next week. Unfortunately, the heat also isn`t ending any time soon. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the low 90s, with lows only falling to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight. Additionally, CPC outlooks continue to highlight much of the country leaning above normal for temperatures through mid-July. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Low-end VFR ceilings are in place across the terminals early this evening, where cloud bases of FL035-045 waft above southerly winds that are gusting at KOMA/KLNK to around 25 kts. Expect those winds to continue through the next few hours, with main story being thunderstorm development that is expected to occur by 01z near KOFK that will build eastward, clipping KOMA around 07z. Gusts to 25 are generally expected for areas not directly hit by the worst conditions, with visibilities of 2 miles or less and gusts of 35 kts or more expected with a direct hit from a strong portion of the cluster of storms (30% chance at KOFK, 10% chance at KOMA). Once those storms clear, winds will generally fall back out of the south, with a bank of showers possible during the afternoon hours tomorrow in addition to gusty winds of 20-25 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Petersen
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE
221 FXUS63 KGID 012343 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms this evening into tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. - Convection may redevelop across eastern portions of the forecast area Thursday morning. - Storms may develop/move into portions of the forecast area Thursday evening. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather. - There is uncertainty in regards to placement and timing of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday evening/night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. - High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s and low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Today and tonight... An upper level trough is over most of the western part of the country and extends over the northern Plains and much of the Upper Midwest. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast towards the Northeast. Temperatures this afternoon will heat up into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms this evening into tonight with another shortwave expected to move over the area. The latest HRRR shows some storms developing across south central Nebraska between 9 PM and around 1 AM. Portions of north central Kansas may also get storms. The main threats will be hail up to around the size of half dollars and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Thursday into Thursday night... The HRRR and NAM12 are both showing showers and storms developing across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas Thursday morning. These storms may get strong to possibly marginally severe with fairly high CAPE, instability, and upper level lift present. Some isolated, weaker showers and storms may linger into the afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty about storm development across the area late in the afternoon into the evening hours. The HRRR brings in some showers and storms around 8 or 9 PM with everything pretty much gone by 2 AM. However, the NAM12 develops a storm around the Grand Island area by early evening and continues storm development through most of the night generally along and north of I-80. If these storms do develop, they have a fairly high potential (around 70%) of becoming severe given very high CAPE (3,000 to 5,000+ J/kg), decent wind shear (30 to 40 knots across most of the area), and mid-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees C/km. The deciding factor may be if a shortwave trough moves over/near the area. Most of the area is in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar to those from today. Low temperatures Thursday night may be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous night. Friday and Friday night... Temperatures are expected to warm up on Friday with highs in the lower to upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms across most of south central and central Nebraska Friday evening into Friday night. Details about these storms remain uncertain at this time. Saturday and Saturday night... There remains uncertainty with regards to temperatures and precipitation on Saturday. There is supposed to be a cold front moving into the area but the timing is uncertain. At this time, high temperatures on Saturday are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid/upper 90s. High temperatures will be cooler (especially along and north of I-80) if the NAM12 is right since it brings in the cold front sooner and develops precipitation earlier in the day. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring in the front and precipitation later in the day (late afternoon/early evening). The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement with regards to placement of the showers and storms. There is potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening given fairly high instability and wind shear. At this time, there is not high confidence in the placement of showers and storms Saturday evening, but there is fairly high confidence (around 60%) that there will be convection. Sunday through Tuesday... High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances (around 15% to 25%) of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for various parts of the area Sunday through Tuesday. Morning low temperatures will generally be in the low 20s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Though storms may be possible to near or develop around the terminals between 0-4z, the quickly northward surging surface boundary (evident on satellite by the linear cumulus convergence boundary), may suggest that the best potential for storms may now lie north of KEAR/KGRI. The only other window of concern for weak storms or light rain may possibly come between 12-16z. Ceilings and visibilities will likely remain VFR in either case. Though some marginal and likely brief LLWS could be possible at times across the overnight hours, models tended to keep wind speeds just at or very briefly meeting LLWS criteria. Surface winds tonight will be expected to remain out of the south with speeds mainly maintaining below 10kts, especially after sunset. During the day Thursday, directions should become more southeasterly with speeds nearing 15kts and gusting near 25kts (brief gusts as high as 30kts possible during the early afternoon hours). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Stump
Navigation
