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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE


000
FXUS63 KOAX 231933
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
233 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

WV/IR imagery revealing flow aloft is in the midst of amplifying in
response to a pacific NW shortwave trof pushing toward the northern
Rockies.  As the shortwave moves into the northern Plains models
show attendant cold front getting dragged across the Dakotas on
Monday morning. As the boundary approaches approaches from the north
expect precip activity to break out during the afternoon hours over
the northern CWA then gradually expand southward across the rest of
eastern NE and southwest IA Monday night. Sufficient mid layer
ageostrophic forcing will be present along/south of I-80 to maintain
the precip activity into Tuesday afternoon. Models now suggesting
severe storm threat is minute.

Cold air advection behind the front will translate to highs only
topping out in the mid/upper 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Both GFS/ECM advertise possible precip next weekend in association
with a waffling surface boundary remaining in the vicinity of the
CWA.

Highs overall through late next week will remain just a bit below
normal with upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle with some
possibility of MVFR cigs at KLNK and KOFK after sunrise Monday
morning. LLWS possible at KOFK overnight.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Kern

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion



Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE


000
FXUS63 KGID 231903
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
203 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Right now the forecast remains dry through Monday even through
moisture continues to increase and a frontal boundary drops into
the area Monday afternoon. Can`t say for sure we might not see a
sprinkle or some drizzle Monday afternoon but have not mentioned
in forecast for now. Clouds will increase in the far southeast
late tonight and from the northwest during the day Monday. That
will hold temperatures down a bit Monday. Some hints a bit of
light fog south of Hastings late tonight with light winds, clear
skies and increasing moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

In short, this period starts damp, turns dry and then becomes
really hard to forecast with much certainty in terms of
preciptiation. Temperatures will be cooler than recent weeks and
probably average near normal for the period.

A trough will pull through the central and northern Plains early
Tuesday. Enhanced by the right rear H250 jet entrance scattered
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorms will slide across the
area from northwest to southeast Monday night through about midday
Tuesday. The ECMWF is most aggressive with precipitation amounts,
but overall this event seems to be trending down in terms of
actual rain amounts. Timing trends have been solid and skies will
clear Tuesday afternoon. Most offices have trended down a few
degrees Tuesday night with high pressure and clear skies. The
upper 30s will be back in play across the north and west forecast
area.

Generally dry and mild weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday
across the area. Flow is more northwest in nature and that is
always tricky as totally unsolicited precipitation events can
often occur. And thats were the end of the week ends up as the
area is in a hybrid west/northwest flow. That becomes very
difficult to pinpoint rain changes with any certainty much more
than a couple days in advance. Small rain chances are included
just about every day though confidence in fine details is low
from Friday/Saturday/Sunday.

As previously mentioned, temperatures throughout the week will
probably average about near normal seven days from now with a
couple days on the warm side and a couple on the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

VFR conditions are forecast through the forecast period but
there are frailties which could interrupt the forecast a bit.
Increasing low level moisture tonight may result in some
light fog...6-8SM miles...toward dawn. Confidence not strong
enough to add at this point, but worth watching. Also, late
night low level could sneak toward Kearney resulting in wind
shear, but again, confidence for inclusion in the forecast
is not great. Finally, late in the forecast period, clouds
will be on the increase ahead of/along a frontal boundary
dropping south across Nebraska. Right now, low end VFR
ceilings appear reasonable, but trends will need to be watched
in subsequent forecast periods for those clouds arriving
sooner or coming in a bit lower (per NAM).


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion