Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

659
FXUS63 KOAX 071850
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
150 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and
  evening across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with the
  potential for damaging wind and hail.

- Strong to severe storms are possible again on Saturday with
  the potential for a complex of thunderstorms producing
  damaging winds and hail across eastern Nebraska and southwest
  Iowa.

- Wildfire smoke continues to move overhead from the northwest.
  Most of this smoke remains high in the atmosphere, with only
  a small amount reaching the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A weak cold front has sagged into our region this afternoon.
This front extends from an area of low pressure near the Great
Lakes. The front is expected to slowly push south through the
region through the remainder of this afternoon and evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front, but
subsidence on the backside of a shortwave trough moving across
the Upper Mississippi River Valley is suppressing much of this
potential. That said, portions of far eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa have a low chance of severe weather should a
thunderstorm be able to develop. The main concern will be
damaging winds and hail if any thunderstorms become severe.
Otherwise, much of the area will be sunny with high temperatures
in the upper 80s to near 90. While it may be sunny, skies may
appear milky as wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest is
being carried over the region. Little to no surface impact is
expected from this smoke however.

The cold front will begin to lift northwards with the aid of a
low-level jet Saturday morning. At the same time, a shortwave
impulse will quickly move across the north-central Plains.
Convective-allowing ensembles continue to show showers and
thunderstorms developing over central Nebraska early in the
morning. These may form into a thunderstorm complex that moves
across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa later in the morning
through the early afternoon. It remains uncertain if this
complex becomes severe and how long it persists into our region.
That said, if a complex does form, damaging winds and hail
would be the primary concerns with this. Clouds and any
precipitation from the complex should keep temperatures a touch
cooler during Saturday afternoon. Heading into late Saturday
night and Sunday morning, another low-level jet will impinge on
the area. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible,
mainly across western Iowa. Severe weather may be possible with
damaging winds and hail once again. Wildfire smoke will
continue to waft over the area on Saturday.

Heading through Sunday, temperatures increase slightly as the
ridge over the southwest builds slightly. Temperatures are
likely to push into the low 90s as a result. This will be
short-lived though as a shortwave rounding the ridge pushes into
the area Sunday night into Monday morning. These repeated
troughs in the northwest flow aloft continue into next week and
will keep at least weak surface troughing across the region
with active weather anticipated. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms is likely heading through next week as this
pattern generally holds, though overall troughing over the Great
Lakes increases. Wildfire smoke will continue to waft over the
region. Rain chances are largely focused overnight into the
morning hours in association with the low-level jet. Severe
weather may continue to be possible as moderate winds aloft and
sufficient instability should support at least some threat of
organized severe convection. With the repeated thunderstorms,
temperatures gradually dip through the 80s early next week.
Temperatures may even reach the 70s for highs late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions have returned to the region this afternoon. A
weak cold front has entered northeast Nebraska and will slowly
slide southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Winds ahead of the front are from the southwest, then
shift to northwest and north behind the front. Winds gradually
become northeasterly then easterly overnight into Saturday
morning. Wildfire smoke aloft has overspread much of the
northern Plains. At this time, any smoke is not anticipated to
cause aviation impacts. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across central Nebraska Saturday morning, before
tracking east into eastern Nebraska. Confidence in timing and
location of any precipitation and the duration of this activity
remains highly uncertain. Forecast models differ substantially
with their solutions. Will forgo any mention of precipitation in
the TAF until confidence increases.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

421
FXUS63 KGID 072038
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
338 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though forecast uncertainty remains fairly high, the potential
  for a few strong to severe storms Saturday morning (mainly
  between 7AM and 2PM for areas north of I-80 or east of
  HWY-281) remains in place.

- The strongest storms (if they materialize) would be capable of
  producing hail up to the size of quarters with thunderstorm
  wind gusts near 60MPH.

- A few isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out across the
  evening to nighttime hours Saturday. Even better storm
  chances come next week (daily thunderstorm chances Monday-
  Thursday).

- Temperatures will raise up to the 90s to 104 degrees Sunday
  with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees across a majority
  of the area. The warmest temperatures will be concentrated
  towards the south and east.

- Highs next week (after Sunday) will look to decrease a few
  degrees each day with highs potentially reaching the 70s again
  by Thursday (40-80% chance, greatest potential for south
  central Nebraska).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026


General Overview...

Broad ridging out west with troughing to the east leaves the area
underneath northwest flow today. Across the next few days, the upper-
level pattern will be expected to return back to a more zonal (less
amplified) flow with occasional shortwave disturbance possible to
pass through over the next week. Though a few scattered storms may
pop up here and there over the weekend into early next week, the
majority of the area should remain fairly dry with gradually
increasing rain/storm chances across the middle to end of next week.
As for temperatures, highs will gradually increase by a few degrees
each day through Sunday before trending the other direction for a
majority of next week.


Tonight and Saturday...

Though some areas of fog can`t be completely ruled out across a few
locations mainly south if I-80 tonight (20-50% chance), the coverage
and intensity of any frog that develops should not be as
widespread/intense as this past morning. The latest HREF guidance
has 50% of its ensemble members projecting fog with only 20% of its
members showing dense fog. In comparison of the HREF guidance 24-
hours earlier (guidance for this past morning), 60% of its members
had fog with 40% of them dense. As result to the decreased model
confidence, we suspect that any fog that does manage to develop
will not be as dense or widespread as from this past morning.

The even bigger question for Saturday morning will be the potential
for a few storms to materialize out of the Nebraska sandhills region.
Current high resolution forecast guidance has been in and out with the
overall coverage of these storms, leading to lower than normal
confidence for our PoPs (only up to 10-30%). The best chances for
thunderstorm activity will generally be concentrated north of I-80
and east of HWY-281 between 7AM and 2PM.

Despite the uncertainty for storm coverage, the conditions would
generally be supportive enough for severe weather for any given
location that does see a thunderstorm. As a result, the SPC keeps a
majority of the area (all of south central Nebraska and Philips,
Smith and Jewell counties in north central Kansas) included in a
Marginal severe weather outlook. Conditionally, some elevated CAPE
(up to 3,000-4,000J/kg above 800mb) paired with a nocturnal low-
level jet (25-40kts of bulk shear) should be supportive enough for
helping a few of these storms become potentially strong to severe.
Though hail up to the size of quarters may be possible within a few
of the taler (generally stronger) storms, the main concern would be
for gusty thunderstorm winds up to near 60MPH.

Beyond the chance for storms in the morning, a few isolated to
scattered pop up storms can`t be ruled out across the evening or
nighttime hours as well. Highs for Saturday are expected to
climb back to as high as the upper 80s and 90s for a majority of
the area, though a few far southeast Nebraska and north central
Kansas locations may reach the low 100s (20-50% chances). This
warm up will carry on through the weekend as southerly winds
help advect in a warmer and humid airmass.


Next Week...

Highs peaking Sunday (90-104 degrees; warmest towards the southwest)
will be followed a multi-day cool down following the passage of a
cold front Sunday night into Monday morning as well as the presence
of increasing cloud coverage. NBM probabilities even show a 60-80%
chance for highs to stay below 80 degrees Thursday for south central
Nebraska and a 40-60% chance across north central Kansas. Though a
heat advisory has not yet been considered for Sunday, heat indices
will be expected to rise above 100 degrees across a majority of the
area with a 30-70% of heat index values reaching/exceeding 105
degrees across portions of north central Kansas. If this trend
continues, a heat advisory may be considered.

Besides the temperatures, a slightly wetter signal is beginning to
appear next week as daily PoPs return across the entire area starting
Monday night (20-30% chance). It is too early to fully analyze the
nightly thunderstorm potential that will be mainly based around the
specific timing for passing disturbances. That being said, sufficient
moisture, a warm/buoyant airmass and the return of a nocturnal low-
level jet, would all check the boxes needed for severe convection.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to maintain through at least 6z
tonight. Between 6z and 18z, increasing cloud coverage will be
observed with a few storms approaching the vicinity from the
northwest between 12-18z. It is unclear at this point in time if
the storms will reach either KGRI or KEAR. The current model
guidance keeps the precipitation coverage north and east. If a
storms does pass, ceilings as low as 1,000-2,000ft will be
possible with visibilities dropping near 2-4SM.

Though not likely (20-40% chance), some fog may redevelop
overnight into Saturday morning for a few locations across south
central Nebraska. The potential for dense fog overall remains
low.

Winds today are likely at their gustiest point (currently
gusting as high as 20-30kts as of 17z). These gusts should
naturally decrease across the evening hours with speeds
returning to clam/light winds (

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion