Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

975
FXUS63 KOAX 041021
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather continues with heat index values in the
  low 100s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A Heat
  Advisory remains in effect through at least Saturday.

- Oppressive heat will continue into next week along with some
  small chances (10-30%) for nightly showers and storms. Warm
  lows in the 70s will provide little relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features the persistent cutoff
low over the Pacific Northwest while broad ridging holds over the
eastern two thirds of the CONUS. A few shortwaves continue to spur
on convection across northern Minnesota and the Mid-Atlantic, while
we continue to see southwesterly flow aloft south of the main
surface front draped across the Dakotas towards southern Michigan.
Dewpoints have been over-performing over the last two nights,
making the late afternoons/early evenings that much more humid,
with another warm night in store across the area. Lows across
southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa will struggle to fall
below 75 degrees, while the coolest conditions only fall to
around 70 degrees. Low-level winds have already ramped up just
above the surface, though convergence along the nose of the low-
level jet will be pointed well to the northwest, limiting any
chances for rain.

Heading into Friday, another hot day is in store as the mid/upper
ridge holds over the area with no relief in sight. Afternoon
dewpoints in the mid 70s will continue hanging around northeast
Nebraska into northern Iowa, while slightly lower values remain
to the south where the hottest temperatures are anticipated to
be. A continued Heat Advisory will carry forward the message of
the dangerous heat -- not just due to the peaks of the heat, but
also the duration of the heat heading into the weekend. Heat
indices are forecast to top out in the 100-106 degree range,
with the worst conditions along and south of Interstate 80.

Saturday and Beyond:

Another warm early morning is expected to be interrupted by
convection initiating and being maintained by a nosing low-
level jet across eastern South Dakota while additional weaker
convection tries to pull itself together across central Nebraska
in worse convective ingredients. Once the strength of the LLJ
begins waning around sunrise, the weaker convection in central
NE should die while the MCS/cluster across South Dakota tries
eating into the better instability to its immediate south. As
it moves southward (and as time goes on), less and less shear
will be available to maintain its strength and the cluster
should fade as it pushes into northeast Nebraska and Iowa.
Lingering showers and pop-up storms will likely continue along
the outflow boundary throughout the afternoon northeast Nebraska
and western Iowa, with storm strength expected to be low.

Aside from the shower and storm chances, heat is expected to
continue as the main ridge across the area transitions from a center
over the eastern half of the CONUS to a position over the western
half. Temperatures take a slight dip for Saturday due to the
storm activity and resultant clouds, with temperatures expected
to rebound into next week. Overall rain chances through the
latter part of the forecast continue to remain rather low, owing
to the smaller-scale forcing for ascent that will occur, some
off the nocturnal jet while others drift in from afternoon
convection that initiates along a weak mesoscale boundary.
Ensemble models continue to lean towards the hot end of the
temperature forecast with us remaining planted on the eastern or
western edge of a building ridge heading into next weekend. A
"cold" front passage could bring in minor relief towards the
middle of the upcoming week, but we`ll still be left with above-
average temperatures that are still reminiscent of the deep
summer while most of the area continues looking forward to fall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Low-level wind shear is wrapping up leaving mostly 5-10 knot sfc
winds forecast over the next 24 hours. Most winds will blow out
of the south with some variability in the direction at KOFK and
northeast Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

897
FXUS63 KGID 041155
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot days ahead Friday and Saturday with Heat Advisory in
  effect until 8 PM Saturday. Heat indices will be in the upper
  90s-100s, peaking as high as 110 in the Heat Advisory.

- Isolated storm chances (15-20%) return Friday afternoon, with
  off-and-on chances remaining into next week.

- Above average temperatures, in the 80s-90s, continue through
  next week though cooler than recent highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Persistent ridging over our area brings another hot day with
high temperatures reaching into the mid 90s-mid 100s. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM Saturday along and
southeast of a line extending from Harlan County to Polk County.
Heat indices in this advisory could peak as high as 110 degrees
on Friday and 106 degrees on Saturday. Areas outside of the
heat advisory will still reach heat indices in the upper 90s-low
100s through Saturday.

Storms chances return Friday afternoon though odds remain relatively
low (15-20%). The HRRR and RRFS are more aggressive with storm
potential but other models keep the area dry through the overnight
hours Friday. Synoptic support for storms is very limited, any
initiation will come from mesoscale interactions which keeps
confidence is storm formation low. Off-and-on storm chances (20-
30%), favoring the overnight hours, remain in place through the
weekend and into next week.

The large ridging pattern finally starts to show some signs of
change beginning Sunday and continuing through the week. The upper
level low, currently over the Northwest, pushes further into
the continent which will start to lower the upper level heights
over our area. At the surface we will start to get some reprieve
from the heat though temps will remain above average. Sunday
will see some slight cooling though highs remain in the low
upper 80s-90s with our southern areas still reaching the low
100s. Highs next week start to come down slowly but stay steady
in the 80s-low 90s, though southern portions could still flirt
with the triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Our persistent upper-level ridge and surface high pressure is
expected to retrograde westward back over the Central Plains
over the next 48 hours, keeping us in high heat through Labor
Day. The current Heat Advisory remains in effect through
Saturday evening, and has been expanded northwestward slightly.
The hottest locations in our CWA will be the southeastern
counties, where afternoon and early evening heat indices will
reach up to ~107 F, with 12z HREF indicating 60 - 80% chances
for heat indices to top 105 F. Overnight lows in the Heat
Advisory zone will offer little relief only getting down to the
low- to-mid 70s F. Heat indices even for our far northwestern
counties in greater central Nebraska will reach into the upper
90s, and these portions of the CWA still only have 10 - 20%
chances for overnight lows to bottom out ~65 F.

Dry conditions are favored through tomorrow (FRI) evening.
Friday evening ~5:00 PM, a few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible (12z HREF probabilities 10 - 20% chances), primarily
west of Highway 183 and north of Kearney. A couple storms also
look to be possible for our counties along the KS / NE state
line as southeasterly surface flow with relatively higher
dewpoints and a strengthening 850-hPa jet overlap as the ridge /
surface high pushes back west. The 12z RRFS and ARW appear the
most aggressive with these storms. However, confidence is lower
(10%) in these storms, but it will be worth watching. The best
chances for precip do look to hold west of North Platte`s CWA,
but a heaviest-precip scenario (i.e. 95th percentile totals)
would bring very localized totals of 0.5 - 0.75 in. Highest
chances to realize these totals would be west of Highway 183.
Regardless, the likeliest scenario is that the majority stay
dry, and those that do receive rain get nothing more than 0.1
in.

Surface winds today will continue at 10 - 20 mph, wobbling from
out of the SSW to SSE. Gusts today will be highest for those in
the Heat Advisory zone, offering a slight bit of relief.
Today`s gusts will top out near 25 mph. Tonight, a few of our
northwestern counties can see a brief shift to northerly winds,
but southerly flow will be the majority`s wind direction through
tonight. There is some uncertainty as to how strong tonight`s
gust can get in the Heat Advisory zone, as a surface inversion
is likely to develop but low-level winds will be strong. Some
mixing would allow relatively breezier conditions to continue
overnight in the Heat Advisory zone. Tomorrow (FRI) afternoon, a
shift to more southeasterly flow at 10 - 15 mph will help bring
in slightly higher moisture content for our potential storms.
Beyond FRI, calmer south-southeasterly flow is expected for SAT
and SUN. MON, however, looks to be the windiest day upcoming,
with 15 - 25 mph sustained winds and 13z NBM probabilities of
gusts >35 mph reaching ~60%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
southerly winds (around 5-10 kts) are expected through the
morning. During the afternoon hours southwesterly winds
strengthen to around 10kts. Winds gust to 18kts at KEAR and an
occasional gust of 15kts may occur at KGRI. Clouds will remain
sparse in the morning before scattered mid-level clouds move in
over the afternoon hours. Cloud bases are expected to remain
above 8000ft through the TAF period. Additionally, there are low
chances (10-20%) of storms in central Nebraska over the
afternoon/evening hours that could track over KEAR and KGRI.
Confidence in storm formation and location is too low to mention
in the TAF at this time.




&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2026

Potential Record "Warmest Low" Temperatures This Week

Grand Island (KGRI):
Fri, Sept 4th: 72 (1954,1912,1899)
Sat, Sept 5th: 75 (1945)

Hastings (KHSI):
Fri, Sept 4th: 72 (2015,1925)
Sat, Sept 5th: 74 (1912)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ049-063-064-
     074>077-083>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...McGrew
DISCUSSION...Began/Mangels
AVIATION...McGrew
CLIMATE...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion