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Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

FXUS63 KOAX 232313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

The main forecast concerns are precipitation coverage/intensity
tonight and potential for rain amounts of over half an inch in
some locations.

Surface analysis at 20Z showed a low pressure center over western
KS, likely one county well of KHLC. A weak warm front warm
front/surface convergence zone, extended from the low across
northern KS and then over into central MO. Dewpoints in the local
area were in the mid 30s to lower 40s, but lower and mid 50s
surface dewpoints extended from OK into parts of central KS.
Temperatures had warmed into the 40s in northeast NE with 50s
for most of the rest of the area. Some lower and mid 60s were
noted in KS, and it had warmed to 61 at Beatrice.

Water vapor loop early this afternoon showed two circulations of
interest. First was over the northeast corner of CO and another
was in northwest KS south of McCook. SPC Day 1 outlook has parts
of south central NE/north central KS in a marginal risk and that
seems reasonable. As of 20Z there was a narrow ribbon of 100 mb
MLCAPE of over 250 J/kg in central KS. If storms get going, and
recent HRRR output suggests it will, then we could see some
thunderstorms and locally heavy rain west of Beatrice, Lincoln and
Columbus. SPC did issue an MCD recently for parts of KS and NE.

Models are then in decent agreement that showers/isolated thunder
will spread across the central parts of the forecast area for the
overnight. Bumped up rain amounts for both this evening and
overnight compared to 12 hours ago. We will then see gradually
decreasing rain chances through the day Sunday as the mid level
low moves off to the east and weakens. We expect mainly dry weather
for Monday/Tuesday. High temperatures tomorrow should be mostly
in the lower and mid 50s, 45 to 50 Monday and in the 50s to around
60 Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Rain chances increase Wednesday night and remain in the 20 to 60
percent range into at least Friday. Rain amounts could be over
half an inch for parts of the area Thursday night. Temperatures
early Friday could be cool enough for a rain/snow mix in parts of
northeast NE, but no accumulation is expected at this time. The
ECMWF is very aggressive with a system for Friday and we did not
prefer that solution for now. By next weekend there is a large
spread in the model guidance so confidence on any details drops to
below normal by then.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

A deep-layer cyclone over south-central NE early this evening will
track east-northeast into the area tonight into Sunday. An
associated band of showers and thunderstorms ongoing over south-
central NE and north-central KS will accordingly move/develop into
eastern NE this evening. Latest model guidance suggests that a
more continuous area of showers and a few thunderstorms could
reach KLNK by 10 or 11 PM, KOFK by about the same time, and KOMA
after midnight. Prior to that time isolated showers could affect
mainly KLNK and KOFK where we have indicated VCSH. With the onset
of more continuous precipitation, ceilings will lower through MVFR
into the IFR range with those conditions lasting through Sunday
morning. Southeast winds this evening will gradually back to
northeast and then north with the passage of the surface low
through the area.




LONG TERM...Miller

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

FXUS63 KGID 232259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Radar continues to have a few showers, but in the past hour there
has been some development near the upper level low. There are a few
breaks in the clouds, but lower clouds continue for much of the
area. The far south has had the most sunshine.

The upper level low is expected to move into the forecast area late
this afternoon. From the satellite, it appears to be just to the
southwest of the forecast area. As the upper level low moves into
the area showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase and
spread across the area during the evening. The MUCAPE increases to
over 750 J/KG this afternoon for much of north central Kansas and
far south central Nebraska. There could be a strong to severe
thunderstorm or two this afternoon and evening. After dark tonight,
the CAPE decreases and the chance for severe diminishes. There could
still be a few thunderstorms through mid night or so. The
precipitation should move out of the area mostly tonight, but the
far northeast could see a little rain into the morning hours.

Even after the precipitation moves out of the area, there will
continue to be plenty of moisture around and expect mostly cloudy
skies to continue through the day on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

The upper level low moves off to the east, but a weak upper level
wave moves in Sunday night into Monday. There could be a little
light rain, but it should be spotty. Mostly cloudy skies are
expected to continue into Monday night before starting to move out
of the area.

A surface high in the northern plains will move to the east Tuesday.
Skies clear out during the day Tuesday and winds turn to the south.
The pressure gradient tightens during the day, but the stronger
winds aloft do not develop until Tuesday night. By 12Z Wednesday,
winds at 850MB are around 50 knots. The pressure gradient stays
pretty tight in the east on Wednesday, but a surface low and cold
front move into the northwest. The south winds and sunshine will
allow temperatures to jump up. Expect temperatures in the 70s across
the area. The south winds also bring moisture into the area and
there could be some showers that develop Wednesday afternoon. By
Wednesday evening, the cold front is moving through the forecast
area and there could be some showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the evening. Expect some showers to linger Thursday, but they should
be spotty.

The next upper level wave will move through Thursday night and
continue to affect the area through Saturday. There are differences
in the models during this period and therefore there will be some
changes over the next few days. The days will be warmer and expect
the precipitation to be rain, but nights could still be a little
cooler, especially Friday night, and there will be a mix with or
change to snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Thunderstorms are possible in the next few hours at the TAF
locations. Ceilings are expected to lower during the night and IFR
conditions are possible later tonight and into the day on Sunday.





NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion