Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

281
FXUS63 KOAX 201740
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1240 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Today and Tonight...

Surface high pressure settled into the region overnight, with clear
skies to prevailing and little to no wind. This, in turn, allowed
temperatures to plummet into the mid and upper 30s over northeast
Nebraska, and mid 40s near the Kansas/Missouri borders by
sunrise this morning.

High pressure will slide east, as a weak upper level shortwave
and associated cloud cover moves in from the southwest. A few
spotty showers struggled to move east from central Nebraska, as
more abundant deep layer moisture remained just west of the
forecast area. Moisture is expected to finally shift eastward
this evening, allowing for a better chance of rain reaching the
surface along and south of I-80, over southeast Nebraska into
southwest Iowa (15-30%) tonight into Thursday morning.

Temperatures will rise back into the upper 50s and low 60s this
afternoon and Thursday. Lows will remain slightly warmer than
this morning, under southerly return flow, only dipping into the
low and mid 40s.

Thursday Night and Beyond...

Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, as a trough digs
into the western CONUS out of southern Canada. While the exact track
of this system is still a bit uncertain, models continue to keep the
more potent instability south of the Kansas border. Though a
couple rumbles of thunder will be possible, severe storms appear
unlikely at this time.

A weak cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early
Saturday as the trough lifts northeast, but is quickly followed by
high pressure building into the desert southwest. This will push
warmer air back into the plains for the upcoming weekend. Highs will
rise from the 60s on Friday into the low 70s on Saturday and upper
70s to low 80s Sunday. Mid to upper 80s look probable for the
Memorial Day holiday through the first half of next week.

Dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Memorial Day, before on
and off shower and storm chances return to the forecast as a few
weak waves ripple through the upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the
forecast period. FEW to SCT FL030 clouds have begun to develop
along and south of a line from KLNK to KBTA this afternoon.
Scattered rain showers, isolated weak thunderstorms, and MVFR
ceilings will begin to creep into southeast Nebraska overnight
and into Thursday morning. A slight chance (15-25%) for showers
reaches KLNK between 05-18Z Thursday. Expect MVFR ceilings will
become prevailing at KLNK shortly after 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

548
FXUS63 KGID 201940
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
240 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers most into the area tonight, most likely for areas
  along/south of I-80.

- Another round of scattered-widespread showers/storms moves
  through the area Thursday night-Friday. Overall accumulations
  are forecast to be the highest across western portions of the
  area.

- Highs in the 50s/60s Thursday and Friday, climb into the 70s
  on Saturday and reach the 80s Sunday-early next week as
  ridging builds over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

This afternoon-Thursday afternoon...

A band of rain is steadily lifting north, currently impacting areas
along/north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. As this band exits the area
this afternoon, there will be a lull in precipitation through the
mid evening hours. Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow, with
ridging over the northeast and a trough over the southwest. A
passing disturbance within this southwesterly flow brings the next
chance for rain to the area during the late evening-overnight hours.
The overall highest chances (35-50%) for scattered showers tonight
will be along and south of Interstate 80.

The overall coverage of showers diminishes during the daytime hours
on Thursday, though a few showers may linger throughout the day
(most likely for areas west of Highway 183). Widespread cloud
coverage keeps the area cool on Thursday, confining highs to the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday evening-Friday Night...

Scattered showers/storms return Thursday evening/night as the next
system moves into the Rockies/Plains. The heaviest and most
consistent rain Thursday night looks to be for areas west of Highway
281 in Nebraska. Friday continues to be the day with the highest
potential for off and on rain throughout the daytime hours, though
not everywhere will be a "washout". Rain and cloud coverage results
in another seasonably cool day as highs top out in the 60s. A cold
front pushes through the area Friday afternoon(west)-night(east),
with rain coming to an end behind the front. The overall highest
rain accumulations through Friday night favor areas along/west of
Highway 183. The 12z GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate that western
portions of the area have a 50-60% chance for 0.5" or more of rain.
Any rain exits the area by sunrise on Saturday as the cold front
moves into the Midwest.

Saturday Onwards...

Sunshine returns to the area on Saturday with highs near normal, in
the low-mid 70s. While the forecast currently remains dry, one last
passing disturbance could bring low/light PoPs to western portions
of the area Saturday afternoon-evening. In the wake of this
departing system, ridging begins to build over the area this weekend-
early next week. The result is dry and above normal temperatures
Sunday through the end of the forecast period with highs in the 80s.
Model spread begins to increase around the end of the forecast
period as troughing moves into the western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored at KGRI through TAF period. MVFR
conditions possible at KEAR around end of TAF period. Scattered
showers currently impacting KGRI/KEAR will come to an end over
the next hour. Then a break in rain is expected through
midnight, with rain showers first impacting KEAR then KGRI
through sunrise. Low VFR conditions and lowered (VFR)
visibility is possible in these showers). During the mid-late
morning hours, low VFR to MVFR clouds move into the area. The
exact coverage/location of this is uncertain, but MVFR clouds
are more likely at KEAR than KGRI. Thus have opted to include a
MVFR ceilings group at KEAR and not KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion