Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

681
FXUS63 KOAX 110533
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected overnight (70-90% chance), mainly
  weak but could see some pea-size hail.

- Active pattern continues with additional showers and storms
  possible Saturday afternoon (20-40% chance) through Sunday
  (30-60% chance).

- Temperatures warming into the 80s next week with additional
  chances for showers and storms each day. Potential for a few
  strong to severe storms mainly Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

We`re seeing increasing cloud cover this evening as a stationary
front over Oklahoma slowly starts to lifts north. As the front
lifts north expect to see elevated showers and thunderstorms
develop overnight tonight as a subtle shortwave interacts with
the low- level jet advecting in warm, moist, unstable air above
the surface front. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to shift off to the east by mid-morning on Saturday but expect
fairly gloomy conditions through the day. Low clouds hang
around much of the day with 20-40% chances for light rain. The
surface front finally lifts north into our area Saturday
afternoon/evening. As it moves through we`ll see lifting and
breaks in the cloud cover as well as a late surge of warmer air
with afternoon highs peaking around the 5-7pm timeframe before
the sun sets. We could even see a warm-sector convective storm
or two clip our southeastern Nebraska/southwest Iowa counties
toward the evening if the warm front moves through a little
quicker.

Chances (20-40%) for showers and storms hold through Saturday
night as the low-level jet only gets stronger over our area
ahead of the shortwave moving into the Dakotas. Meanwhile,
large-amplitude troughing over the West Coast continues to churn
out shortwaves that will bring additional chances for showers
and storms on Sunday.

Sunday will be a much warmer day, being fully situated in the
warm-sector with strong WAA and moisture advection ongoing
across the region. Ensembles seem overdone on the western extent
of rain chances on Sunday as models start shifting the moisture
plume eastward with the upper-level trough acting to nudge the
low-level jet eastward through the day on Sunday. By Sunday
afternoon deterministic models have it mostly east of our area
with drier air getting advected in from the southwest. For this
reason, collaborated with neighbors to lower PoPs Sunday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Still some
potential for showers and storms, which if the LLJ hangs around
long enough, could have enough shear for severe potential
across our far east counties. This is highlighted with a
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk by the Storm Prediction Center for
Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday will still be the two days to watch for
a better organized severe threat as the deep upper-level trough
over the West Coast starts to advance inland. This helps with
the development of a couple of strong open-wave troughs that
will move through Monday and Tuesday. The good news for Monday
is that right now the track of this system only serves to help
push the low-level jet/moisture plume east minimizing shower and
storm potential across much of our area apart from our far
eastern counties. Even there we`re only seeing 15-25% PoPs. It
looks like as of now that the better chances for strong storms
will be south and east of our area on Monday.

Tuesday we actually see the system try and pull the warm, moist,
unstable air mass back west into our area bringing back a better
potential for showers and storms, especially Tuesday afternoon
and evening. With ample shear and instability, I expect we`ll
see a decent chance for a few strong to severe storms developing
across our southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa counties.

Later Next Week....

The upper-level trough never really is able to cut loose from
the western CONUS with a strong reinforcing upper-level wave
bringing another deep trough south out of British Columbia
Wednesday into Thursday. With continuing southwesterly flow our
weather pattern looks to remain fairly active with additional
chances for showers and storms through the end of next week.
Temperatures look to stay fairly warm with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s next week with a potential cool down as a
stronger front moves through on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Showers and storms will continue to push in from the southwest
overnight along with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility under
the stronger storms. Storms should be east of the TAF sites by
around 13-14Z with IFR to perhaps LIFR ceilings sticking around
through much of the day. Ceilings are expected to improve to
MVFR by this evening at OMA and LNK, but lower ceilings may
linger at OFK. Southeasterly winds will strengthen by late
morning, gusting 20-30 kts through the remainder of the period
and turning more southerly by this afternoon/evening. Also
expect some low level wind shear late in the period with
50+ kt southwest winds at 1500 ft agl. Finally, can`t completely
rule out a stray shower/storm this afternoon or evening, but
latest guidance keeps it isolated with less than a 30% chance of
impacting a TAF site.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

686
FXUS63 KGID 110519
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered non-severe storms will track northeast across the
  area early this morning and will for the most part exit the
  area by 8 AM. Small hail up to dime size could be possible
  with a few of the stronger storms.

- Dense fog will develop behind the showers and spread northeast
  through the early morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been
  issued through 11 AM for Nebraska counties along the Kansas
  border into north central Kansas. This advisory may need to be
  expanded further north possibly into the Tri-Cities.

- Isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms may redevelop
  Saturday afternoon/evening with a few severe thunderstorms
  possible (Marginal Risk).

- Temperatures will warm back into the 70s and 80s Saturday
  through Thursday before cooling down Friday into next weekend.

- Generally small off and on chances (20-30%) for showers and
  thunderstorms somewhere over our forecast area most days
  except Monday into Tuesday morning which appear dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight...
Most areas will see at least drizzle and periods of rain
overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms. These thunderstorms
are generally not expected to be severe, but could still
produce some pea to penny sized hail. MUCAPE values max out
around 500-1250 J/KG across our southeastern zones with 0-6 KM
shear values as high as 30 kts. These will mainly be elevated
thunderstorms with some hail at times. Can not rule out a few
quarter sized hail reports, storms will be up and down (pulse)
in nature.

Dense fog was already expanding northeast across central Kansas
at 1130 PM and will continue to expand into our forecast area
as the rain departs from southwest to northeast. Felt confident
enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory across our southern zones
from the southern most tier of our Nebraska counties into north
central Kansas. Believe that this fog advisory may need to be
expanded further north late tonight and could also impact the
Tri-Cities through much of Saturday morning.

Saturday...
Most areas will start off the day cool, foggy, and damp with
perhaps a little light drizzle. The fog will lift first across
southern zones by late morning, but may linger until early
afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Eventually the fog will clear out
everywhere by afternoon and then we will see a quick late
afternoon temperature jump into the 70s.

We will see afternoon destabilization with the late day heating
allowing SBCAPE values to climb into the 1500-2000 J/KG range
first across north central Kansas and then lifting north into
southern Nebraska. There is also sufficient shear for a few
isolated supercells (0-1km shear around 30 kts). Severe hail
will be the main threat (ping pong ball), but can also not rule
out a tornado if we get an isolated supercell that can tap into
that favorable environment. Forcing is rather weak and thus
there is the question of if we will even get thunderstorms, but
am leaning towards a few isolated storms, just not widespread.
Most likely time frame for thunderstorm redevelopment will be
between 4 PM and sunset.

Sunday...
Lowered NBM rain chances and kept the rain chances confined to
our southeastern zones. Low probability of thunderstorms, but
if we do see thunderstorms there will be sufficient instability
and shear for an isolated afternoon severe threat. More sunshine
on Sunday along with another day of southerly winds will help to
warm most areas up to around 80 for highs.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026


Tonight/Saturday...

Colder air today filling in behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage
continues to stick around for one more day with temperatures in the
50s and dropping only down to the 40s overnight tonight. A broad
1028mb surface high pressure center passing off to the northeast
will help bend the steady 10-15MPH easterly/northeasterly winds
gusting up to 20-25MPH to the southeast tonight and to a southerly
direction for Saturday.

Though there is a 40-65% chance for (non-severe) thunderstorms
tonight, the overall coverage of meaningful precipitation amounts
will likely not spread more than 0.1-0.5" of rainfall across 1/2 to
2/3rds of the area. Storm development tonight will be dependent on
the presence of a low-level jet tonight. The best timeframe for
storm activity will be between 11PM to 6AM. Though the chance for
severe storms remain unlikely based on the limited MU CAPE (500-
1,000J), low-to-mid level lapse rates of 6-8 C/km with a modest 25-
40kts of bulk shear could still support a few stronger storms that
may produce small hail up to the size of pennies. Developing fog
behind the storms overnight will also be possible as light to steady
upslope flow mixes dewpoints close to their saturation point.
Visibilities may fall to as low as 1 mile with a handful of
locations potentially seeing visibilities drop below one mile at
times across the morning hours.

Gustier conditions Saturday from southerly winds blowing between 20
to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH, will be paired with even
warmer temperatures. Though the cloud coverage is expected to
maintain through the day, the warm air advecting winds will assist
in helping bump highs back up into the 70s.

At the surface, a low materializing across the Northern Rockies will
center the Central Plains under its warm sector side. Aloft, a weak
shortwave trough will bring by some mid-level vorticity advection,
increasing vertical instability (500-1,500 of MU CAPE). Though
storms will not be a guarantee (20-50% chance for more isolated
activity), the conditions would still be favorable to help give any
storm that does pop up potentially some strong to severe characteristics
(hail up to the size of quarters or wind gusts near 60 MPH). As
result, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather covers the
full area.


Sunday and Beyond...

Upper-level troughing out west will creep closer to the Central U.S.
across the beginning of next week. This slow moving feature will set
up a wave train of shortwave disturbances that will pass overtop of
the area mainly between Saturday and Wednesday. As result from this
feature, precipitation chances will return to the area Sunday (10-
30%), Tuesday (20-40%) and Wednesday (20-30%).

Storm chances Sunday will be concentrated towards far eastern to
southeastern portions of areas (mainly areas east of wherever the
dryline sets up that afternoon). A few storms that develop may
potentially become strong to severe (Marginal severe weather outlook
for locations mainly east of HWY-281). Another potential for
scattered storms could come Tuesday evening into Wednesday, although
a lot of uncertainty still remains for this particular event.

Model solutions between the GFS and ECMWF (long range global
deterministic models) begin to diverge Tuesday as another surface
cyclone is expected to develop across the Central U.S. Uncertainty
with the system`s track, timing and frontal placements will
ultimately determine when and where storms may end up develop.

Otherwise, the continuation of southerly winds each day through
Thursday (besides Wednesday) will help highs maintain in the mid 70s
to 80s through much of the week. Near-critical fire weather
conditions look to return to at least a portion of the area each
afternoon Sunday through next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High likelihood (>80%) of IFR ceilings through most of the
morning and into early afternoon. Will also dip down into LIFR
ceilings at times through the morning hours. We`ll have periods
of off and on showers and thunderstorms mainly prior to 6
AMnorthwardwith fog, possibly dense fog moving in behind the
departing rain. The fog will likely remain entrenched at our TAF
sites most of the morning, but should eventually scatter out by
early afternoon, although low ceilings may persist through mid
afternoon before clouds finally lift and become more scattered.

We could also see late Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorm
redevelopment, but have continued to not not included
thunderstorms in the afternoon TAF given expected very isolated
nature of this 2nd round of precipitation.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Wesely

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion