Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

734
FXUS63 KOAX 241027
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs warm to the mid 60s to low 70s today under partly to
  mostly cloudy skies.

- Dry and warm Wednesday with highs in the 80s to near 90F in
  our far southern areas. The warm and dry conditions will
  result in very high fire danger.

- Very high fire danger expected areawide Thursday with
  northerly gusts up to 35 mph along and behind a front. There
  is a low 15 to 30% chance for light rain Thursday, changing
  to a rain/snow mix late Thursday into early Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

04z RAP objective analysis shows a weakening H5 shortwave trof
exiting the area. A broken to overcast mid level cloud deck still
remains over the Missouri River Valley but should also exit within
the next few hours.

Today will see an H8 baroclinic zone lift through the area. Another
weak H5 disturbance will approach the area from the north and work
in tandem with the low level warm advection to generate some cloud
cover. Similar to Monday, a few CAMs develop very light reflectivity
near the mid level feature, but the lowest 4-5 km to the sfc show
quite a bit of dry air per soundings so should just see partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Highs warm to the mid 60s to low 70s with the
warmest temperatures expected in our far west. Lows cool to the 40s.

By Wednesday, should see a larger chunk of the 1000-500 mb thermal
ridge push into the forecast area, raising temperatures to the 80s
areawide. Locations along the KS/NE border may reach 90F. While
winds are expected to remain at 10-15 mph, the warm temperatures
combined with RH of 19 to 25% will lead to areas of very high fire
danger, particularly across eastern Nebraska. Lows Wednesday night
remain warm in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Thursday will see more of a zonal flow pattern set up at H5 as a
stronger wave from southern Saskatchewan ejects east southeast into
southern Manitoba and northern Minnesota. A sfc low and attendant
cold front are progged to move over the Northern Plains during the
daytime hours. Should see highs reach the mid 60s in our far
northwest while the mid 70s to low 80s are reached over our far
southeast areas before the front arrives. Along and behind the
front, the subsidence from the CAA should help transfer some gusty
30 to 35kts of momentum to the sfc. This combined with the cured
fuels and overall dry pattern will lead to widespread very high fire
danger.

Another thing to monitor will be the potential for some rain showers
to develop mainly southeast of a line from Albion to Wayne
where H8-H7 WAA sets up, which may limit to an extent some of
the fire weather threat. With this forecast update, considerable
spread still exists amongst guidance on if we`ll see light
rain. For now, have kept the low NBM PoPs of 15 to 30% in those
areas.

By late Thursday into early Friday morning, will see continued 15 to
30% chances for a rain/snow mix mainly along and south of Interstate
80. Highs Friday afternoon only warm to the 50s behind the front.
For the weekend, should see dry conditions with a gradual warming
trend as highs Saturday reach the 60s, while 70s are expected
Sunday. Another warm day is expected Monday with most areas seeing
highs in the 70s and 80s. Areas of very high fire danger appear
probable given the warm and dry conditions those days. Late Monday,
guidance suggests southwesterly H5 flow returning to the area as the
H5 ridge pushes east toward the southeast CONUS. As such, will see a
series of disturbances move through resulting in PoPs of 25 to 45%
for rain and even some thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm southerly winds will persist this morning before
climbing into the 12-15 kt range this afternoon. Winds will calm
back under 12 kts by 25/00Z. Otherwise, a broken to overcast
cloud deck around FL130 will pass by through the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

232
FXUS63 KGID 241130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After highs in the 50s on Monday, well above normal
  temperatures work their way back onto the Plains...peaking on
  Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to reach into the
  80s-low 90s, threatening record high temps at both Grand
  Island and Hastings.

- An upper level disturbance will be pushing a strong cold front
  through the area during the day on Thursday...making for a
  tricky temperature forecast. This front will also be ushering
  in stronger north winds, with gusts exceeding 30 MPH possible.

- Spotty areas of at least near-critical fire weather conditions
  continue through mid-week, mainly focused over the western
  half of the forecast area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Currently...

The forecast currently sits with overall quiet conditions...with
upper air and satellite data showing the region under solidly
west-northwesterly flow. The upper air pattern for us is being
driven by broad ridging over the western CONUS, extending from
high pressure along the western US/Mex border...to our east,
broad troughing sits along the East Coast. Skies through the
rest of the overnight-early morning hours tonight look to remain
generally partly cloudy. At the surface, the breezy/gusty
conditions from earlier have diminished, with speeds closer to
10 MPH. Winds remain southeasterly, with the forecast area set
up between a large area of high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes/Midwest region and a weak frontal boundary draped through
the High Plains.

Today Through Thursday...

Overall no significant changes were made to the forecast, which
for most of this mid-week period is dry. Models remain in good
agreement showing the upper level ridging currently centered
off to our west amplifying a touch, then shifting to the east as
a broad disturbance moves onto the northern half of the West
Coast tonight into Wednesday. As that energy continues sliding
east across the northern CONUS, this will bring more zonal flow
to the area for Wed night into Thursday.

For today, main story lies with temperatures starting to rebound
from the highs in the 50s on Monday...thanks to that upper
ridging/thermal ridge axis starting to shift east. Expecting sky
cover to remain generally partly cloudy...and winds are
southerly, picking up in speed a touch during the day as the sfc
pressure gradient tightens up a bit across the area. Sustained
speeds look to be around 15 MPH, gusts around 20-25 MPH are not
out of the question. High temperatures are forecast to climb
into the 70s...and at least near-critical fire weather
conditions will be possible across western portions of the
forecast area (along/west of HWY 183). Across this area, the
warmest temps and lowest relative humidity values develop (15-25
percent)...but is also expected to have a relative lull in
winds. Across central/eastern areas, winds are a touch higher,
but so are are forecast relative humidity values. As a result of
lowest RH/higher winds not quite matching up...forecast ends up
with near-critical conditions, but things are not enough for a
formal fire headline.

Wednesday remains the overall hottest day of the week...with the
potential for record-breaking high temperatures. Winds start the
day south-southwesterly, and models remain in good agreement
then showing winds turning to the west-northwest as a sfc trough
axis swings through the area. Not expecting a push of cooler
air, if anything the more westerly, downsloping winds will help
mixing potential/tap into the warmer air aloft. Current forecast
calls for mid 80s in the NE to low 90s in the SW...with 89
forecast for both GRI and HSI, which would break record highs
(see climate section below for more). Expecting widespread
relative humidity values dropping into the teens during the
afternoon hours...but current forecast winds look to remain
light enough to keep fire weather conditions at bay...but we`ll
see how models trend, it wouldn`t take much of an increase in
winds for there to be bigger issues.

As we get into Thursday...NBM continues to keep some scattered
low-end precipitation chances in the forecast (20-30 percent),
as that upper level swings mainly through portions of the
Plains. Models vary with how far south the system pushes, and
whether the forecast area sees any precipitation or not. At this
point...shouldn`t get your hopes up on seeing appreciable
moisture. The main impact from this system swinging through will
be the accompanying surface cold front...which models showing
pushing south through the area during the daytime hours. This
timing makes a difficult temperature forecast...current highs
range from the mid-upper 60s in the far NW to mid 80s in the far
SE, it`s that middle portion of the area that has the bigger
bust potential depending on the frontal timing. Strong northerly
winds will also be ushered in with this boundary...gusts over
30 MPH will be possible.

Friday on...

Forecast dries back out for Friday on into the weekend. Friday
brings a brief cooldown behind Thursday`s frontal passage, with
highs currently in the low-mid 50s...but look to rebound back
into the 70s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Southeast winds persist through the afternoon, gradually
diminishing this evening into tonight. There should be enough
breaks in cloud cover to allow temperatures to once again fall
to near freezing by Tuesday morning.

Winds become more southerly on Tuesday as upper-level ridging
builds over the western CONUS. This will allow solidly above-
normal temperatures to return to the area. Widespread highs in
the 70s are expected...which is 10-20 degrees above
climatological normals.

Wednesday trends even warmer as the upper level ridge moves
overhead and we see west-northwesterly surface winds. Based on
the NBM, there is a high chance (90%) that we will reach/exceed
record high temperatures at both Grand Island and Hastings. The
current records are 88 and 85 degrees, respectively.

A cold front moves through Thursday morning, ushering in
stronger north winds. Gusts 35 to 40 MPH are likely in most
areas, and there is a chance (20%) that some areas see gusts in
excess of 50 MPH. The timing of the front will also result in a
wide range (and uncertainty) of high temperatures across the
area. A shortwave may bring some light rain/snow to portions of
the area, mainly during the evening and overnight. That said,
the probably for any snow accumulation is less than 5%...and
many areas will remain completely dry.

Friday will remain on the cooler side, but above-normal
temperatures are favored to return over the weekend and into
early next week. Details remain very uncertain, but there are
early indications that we could transition to a more active
(wetter) pattern to start the month of April.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...with any cloud cover passing through expected to remain
near/above 10k ft. SErly winds early this morning will turn more
southerly with time through the rest of the morning hours,
increasing in speed closer to midday. Gusty conditions will be
possible through the afternoon hours, with gusts around 20-25
MPH not out of the question. This evening, winds taper off in
speed, turning back more southeasterly, before switching to a
more southwesterly direction after midnight ahead of an
approaching surface boundary.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Well above normal temperatures work their way back into the area
for the middle of the week, peaking on Wednesday, March 25th.
Record high temperatures will be threatened at both Grand Island
and Hastings.

For Grand Island:
Forecast high temp for March 25th: 89
Record high temp for March 25th: 88, set in 1910

Fore Hastings:
Forecast high temp for March 25th: 89
Record high temp for March 25th: 85, set in 1956

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion