Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

975
FXUS63 KOAX 231945
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely across northeast Nebraska
  during the evening (30-60%). There is a Marginal Risk for
  severe wind and hail (level 1 of 5).

- The next substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives early in
  the day Thursday. The highest chance for storms (40-70%)
  looks to occur across central and southern Nebraska.

- Very warm and humid conditions return this weekend with the
  Heat Index likely exceeding 100 degrees on Sunday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A closed 500MB low is centered just north of the South Dakota /
Canadian border this afternoon with a broad area of low
pressure and cold front extending southward across the Northern
Plains. Pronounced northwest flow extends across the northern
CONUS with the moisture axis extending from the eastern Dakotas
to south central Nebraska. The cold front will gradually move
from northwest to southeast across the forecast area this
evening through the overnight hours.

After morning showers and cloud cover, areas closer to the
surface boundary have recovered with 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE
values and enhanced cumulus across north central Nebraska and
across southern SD. Thunderstorms have already developed this
afternoon along/east of this front across parts of western MN.
We will be watching the convective trends farther to the
southwest of this initial convection. Convective allowing model
consensus favors initiation near the NE/SD border between
21-00z with generally weakly organized activity. Deep layer bulk
shear near 40kts coincident with expected CI late this
afternoon suggests isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. Instability will be a limiting factor across most of
the forecast area - including the Lincoln and Omaha metro areas
and western Iowa. Nonetheless, a band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will try to work through the area early tonight
with the frontal passage. Storm coverage is expected to be
scattered.

This flow pattern persists with a strengthening of the upper
jet by Wednesday and Thursday. The jet will become more zonal
by Thursday. An upper wave moves across the Rockies and High
Plains during this time with convection likely near and east of
the frontal boundary. There is still uncertainty where the
convection (likely MCS) will track during this time. The 12z
deterministic guidance is much more favorable for precip
placement in western and central Nebraska Wednesday night into
Thursday, and the prevailing mean flow would steer thunderstorms
into Kansas.


Temperatures stay mild with highs in the 70s to low 80s through
Friday. However, there is a pattern change for the weekend with
Pacific Northwest troughing and downstream ridging over the
Central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will likely move
across the area on Saturday, but the timing of its passage make
for a tricky temperature/heat index forecast. We lowered the
values for Saturday with this forecast update. By Sunday, 850MB
temperatures between 22-26C appear likely across the area. This
would set the stage for very warm and humid. We`re in range of a
Heat Advisory if the warm sector keeps this placement on Sunday
and Monday. It`s also important to note that we`re getting to
the time of year where evapotranspiration will play a more
important role in dewpoints and heat index values. As the west
coast trough slides E-NE, upper level diffluence and southwest
flow should set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms
over the High Plains, however, the timing and placement of these
features will need to be adjusted with time. At this point, the
best severe weather threat would be west of the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The showers that have been moving across central and northern
Nebraska this morning have largely dissipated. Very light
showers could still impact KLNK early this afternoon, but TS is
not expected and the forest is trending drier. A scattered
cumulus field has developed early this afternoon with cloud
bases generally between 2-4kft. Left MVFR ceilings out of the
TAF at this point, but we can`t completely rule out a broken
ceiling late this afternoon or early this evening - especially
at KOFK. Otherwise, a cold front will move through tonight and
could bring a band of scattered showers as well as winds that
gradually veer to the northwest after 06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...CLF

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

803
FXUS63 KGID 232154
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
454 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and semi-active weather pattern continues for
  another couple of days.

- The next decent chance for rain looks to be Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning, but severe weather threat appears to be
  pretty marginal.

- Return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity this
  weekend into early next week.

- Broadly speaking, may see another uptick in severe weather
  potential in the Saturday night to Tuesday time frame as an
  upper trough ejects from the Rockies into the central/northern
  Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A shortwave disturbance moved through the area this morning and
early afternoon and brought a broad swath of light to moderate
rain showers. Fortunately, instability was lacking with this
system and kept severe weather potential at bay. Subsidence
behind this wave has allowed for some clearing skies and
temperatures to rise into the 70s. This clearing may allow for a
few showers or weak storms to pop up through early evening, but
lack of stronger instability and lingering effects of the
subsidence should keep most locations dry.

Next few days look to feature the same general mid to upper
level pattern in which an upper low spins over the northern
Plains into Upper MS Valley and ridging builds over the SW and W
Coast. This should lead to zonal to NW flow for the central
Plains. Modest and moist upslope flow should allow for daily
thunderstorm development along the High Plains each afternoon,
which will then roll E/SE during the evening and overnight hours
with the mean flow and along a stout instability gradient.
Appears the primary instability axis will remain mostly W/SW/S
of the area each of the next few days, which should keep our
severe threat fairly limited. Appears the best potential for
scattered to widespread rain and embedded storms will be with a
disturbance Wed night into Thu AM. It`s late June and there`s at
least SOME elevated instability and shear, so the various
Marginal Risks on the SPC outlooks make sense...but again, not
expecting anything real organized or widespread for our local
forecast area.

Upper pattern will undergo some changes late in the week, and
especially this weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridging
slides east in response to a new trough developing along the
West Coast. So after several days of seasonably cool highs in
the 70s to lower 80s, should see a significant jump in temps by
Friday and esp. over the weekend. In fact, latest NBM gives
widespread mid 80s to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday - which
will feel quite steamy given seasonably high dew points
currently forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F. The
relatively moist ground from recent rainfall and
evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn will probably
support even higher values in the low to mid 70s for areas E of
Hwy 281 towards the Hwy 81 corridor. Not sure this uptick in
heat and humidity will necessarily rise to advisory levels (heat
indices of 105+), and there will be some southerly breezes to
help bring SOME relief...but it`s a summer weekend, so keep in
mind for those outdoor activities.

Generally speaking, the upper pattern may become more supportive
for severe thunderstorms at some point in the Saturday night
(low level jet/warm air advection) to Tuesday time frame as the
western trough migrates into the Rockies and eventually the
central and northern Plains. This low will likely force at
least a weak to moderate cold front into the region Sunday night
or Monday...which could then linger into Tuesday per recent
deterministic and ensemble trends. This general evolution should
support SOME overlap in seasonably strong deep layer shear
associated with ejecting mid/upper jet streak and large
reservoir of strong to extreme instability, somewhere in the
region during this time frame. Now, does this overlap occur
locally or perhaps further N...and what exactly will be the
timing of the upper trough and surface fronts...these details
still need to be worked out and are critical to pinning down
sensible weather details this time of year. Machine learning
guidance supports the idea of 2-3 day window of increased
severe weather potential, but remains quite broad in it`s
footprint, and muted on any higher end probabilities. Again,
something to monitor as we approach the busy summer weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Potential for MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs
this afternoon through mid-AM Wed.

Rest of today: Showers have largely exited the area as of
midday, but can`t rule out a spotty light shower redeveloping through
mid-afternoon. There are some gusty SE winds on the backside of
the departing showers, but these should only last another 1-2
hours. CIGs are a bit tricky as some models develop a fairly
solid MVFR stratocu field by mid to late afternoon, whereas
other guidance keeps clouds more in the 5-10k ft layer. The
stratocu idea has some merit from a conceptual standpoint given
moist boundary layer and modest winds, so have prevailing MVFR
CIGs for the late afternoon. Confidence: medium.

Tonight: There`s considerable uncertainty regarding cloud cover
and visibility progs for tonight into Wed AM. On one
hand from a conceptual model standpoint...expected light and
variable winds combined with cool temps and high boundary layer
moisture would suggest a pretty decent setup for dense fog -
perhaps IFR to LIFR. Especially after midnight through around
13-14Z Wed. However, a majority of model guidance does not
develop much in the way of fog, seemingly because of
considerable mid to high cloud cover streaming into the area off
of thunderstorms in SW KS. If this is indeed the case, may just
end up with more of a low stratus deck than fog. Would put sub-
VFR probabilities at >50%, but confidence in if this would be
LIFR to IFR VSBYs vs IFR to MVFR stratus is very low attm.

Wednesday: Winds turning to the NW behind a weak cold front
should clear out enough of the low level moisture to provide a
return to VFR conditions by 14-15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion