Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

795
FXUS63 KOAX 030417
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps climb another few degrees for Monday as elevated
  wildfire smoke continues to produce hazy skies.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another
  warming trend likely toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

It`s another mostly clear evening with temperatures in the 70s
as of 10pm. Fog from early this morning is not expected to
repeat tonight due to winds persisting out of the south around 5
to 15 mph. If we were to see anything it would be in sheltered
areas more likely in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa where
winds are weakest. Temperatures forecast to fall into the mid
60s by daybreak.

Looking at satellite and the upper-level pattern, we see the
ridge centered over the Northern Plains with a broad trough over
the Ohio River Vally stretching down into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Out to the northwest we have another broad trough over
the Canadian Rockies that will play a role in helping to squash
down the ridge over the Northern Plains over the next few days.

Monday will be very similar to today. We`ll see strengthening
southerly flow ramping up ahead of the deepening area of low
pressure across the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle. This
will help temperatures warm a few degrees warmer than today with
highs in the upper 80s across southwest Iowa and lower 90s for
eastern Nebraska. Monday evening a fully developed frontal
boundary will trigger showers and storms across central Nebraska
into northeast South Dakota. As the front approaches through the
evening we see increased elevated instability in the region of
pooling moisture to our west. As the front arrives, though, hi-
res guidance really eats away at the amount of instability with
the best environment in our area being around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE over northeast Nebraska between 05-10Z. Bulk shear around
that time stays insignificant until you get behind the cold
front lending toward little-to-no severe threat across our area.
Any stronger storms approaching should decay as they arrive.
Showers and storms should arrive around midnight or just after,
scattered in nature with more widespread showers and storms
likely not arriving until closer to midday Tuesday.

The cold front drops south but stalls across our area on Tuesday
acting as a focus for increased moisture through the afternoon.
Model guidance really doesn`t show much of a trigger, but the
HRRR really blows up along the boundary during the afternoon.
May be a case of the HRRR overconvecting. In any case, if storms
were to get going during the afternoon, hodographs show modest,
but not insignificant amount of shear. Bulk shear values of
35-40kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This could organize a few
stronger storms, but again, we may not have enough forcing to
get storms really going during the afternoon. Better chances
look to be as a shortwave skirts us to our north potentially
triggering some elevated storms overnight along the frontal
boundary. Model soundings show winds are fairly unidirectional
through the unstable layer at this time indicating not a
significant severe threat with these storms.

The forecast beyond Tuesday will greatly depend on how storms
shift the surface boundary Tuesday afternoon and overnight.
Areas north of the front starting Tuesday will see the Canadian
High keep temperatures fairly cool for this time of year with
highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. This remains true for areas north
of the front on Wednesday, which likely will be over most of our
area as the front should push south of the Nebraska-Kansas state
line for Wednesday. Broad troughing over the Central US as well
as a jet streak positioned from southern Idaho east through
Wyoming and Nebraska will lend toward additional shortwaves
bringing more chances for showers and storms along and north of
this frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday. Shouldn`t be
a complete wash-out all day, but do think many across our area
will see at least some rainfall. We expect a swath of heavier
amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches just north of the frontal
boundary, right now looking to be near the I-80 corridor from
around Lincoln to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Amounts drop off north
and south with around a tenth of an inch or less north around
Antelope County east through Monona as well as a tenth to a
quarter of an inch in far southeast Nebraska and near the
Missouri state line in Iowa.

Thursday we should see the trough dig far enough south to push
rain chances down into Kansas and Missouri. With the Canadian
High still in place, temperatures will remain mild, though
clearer skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low
80s. Smoke could be a concern Thursday as subsidence from the
high centered across our area may allow it to sink toward the
ground, but we won`t have a good idea of the extent until hi-res
guidance comes out 36-48 hours in advance.

The forecast toward the end of the week becomes more difficult
as the ridge over the Desert Southwest fights to build back up
while an active troughing pattern over the PacNW fights it back
down. Models diverge significantly in the details including any
potential rain chances for our area, but the general trend is
for temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s on Friday and
low 90s for the weekend as that ridge expands eastward over the
Central and Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period.
Southerly winds will increase by mid-morning, with gusts of
22-25 kts. Skies may be a bit hazy with some smoke well aloft,
but do not anticipate any flight condition impacts. Mid- and
upper-level cloud cover will increase in the final few hours of
the forecast period, with rain chances filtering in afterwards.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

930
FXUS63 KGID 031002
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
502 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today marks the "peak" of the increasingly-warm weather
  that`s been building over the last few days, with high temps
  at least low-mid 90s most of our forecast area (CWA), and
  upper 90s to just over 100 in far southwest counties (heat
  index could reach/slightly exceed 100 mainly in
  Furnas/Phillips/Rooks counties).

- Isolated/scattered showers and primarily weak thunderstorms
  arrive from the west this evening-overnight as a seasonably-
  strong cold front passes A few storms could possibly be on the
  strong side mainly in our far west/northwest counties, capable
  of producing 50+ MPH winds.

- Much cooler temperatures prevail Tues-Wed in the wake of the
  front (highs only 70s most of our area both days).

- While most places will be dry most of the time Tues-Wed,
  isolated to scattered showers/mostly weak thunderstorms are
  possible almost anywhere, with the overall-highest
  chances/coverage favoring late Tues night-Wed morning.

- The vast majority of Tues-Wed storms should be fairly weak
  (and thus far SPC has kept us out of any official Marginal
  Risks), but probably cannot rule out at least small hail
  potential (storms will be mainly elevated...not surface
  based).

- Mostly quiet/dry weather Thurs-Fri as temps start warming.

- Mainly dry weather expected to persist this weekend into
  nearly next week, but there is increasing concern for a multi-
  day stretch of fairly hot weather to set up shop...potentially
  putting heat index back to 100+ degrees in at least parts of
  our CWA.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH NOTING/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/ITEMS OF
 NOTE BEYOND THE FIRST 48 HOURS:
- As for actual changes, really nothing too noteworthy, although
  high temps have trended cooler for Tues-Wed with most of our
  CWA (especially Nebraska counties) only expected to see highs
  in the 70s.

- Even at this closer time range, there are still plenty of
  "finer details" to work out regarding our various chances for
  showers/thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday. The main "big
  picture expectations are that:
1) Coverage of rain/storms is likely to be pretty spotty much of
this time (in other words, most areas dry most of the time).
However, some (not all) models still key in on an uptick in more
widespread coverage late Tues night into Wednesday AM (including
the daylight hours) as a more focused shortwave trough passes
through aloft.

2) No matter what, the vast majority of storms through Wednesday
will surely be fairly weak, although we`ll have to watch
especially our far west/northwest counties for mainly some
near-severe gust potential (50+ MPH) this evening, and then
we`ll need to watch primarily late Tues night-Wed AM for at
least small hail potential as various models suggest that storms
could tap into at least 1000 J/kg of elevated instability/CAPE.
In terms of severe storm potential, cannot totally argue with
SPC clipping our far western/northwestern fringes with the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for this evening, but storms should
really "lose steam" as they get into our CWA. As for Tues
night-Wed AM, am a touch surprised that SPC has refrained from a
Marginal Risk (at least thus far) for perhaps marginally-severe
hail potential, but it`s also not a "slam dunk" hail setup
either, with most storms likely producing only heavy downpours
and perhaps small hail.

3) As for CUMULATIVE rain amounts tonight through Wednesday,
the latest general consensus is that MOST of our CWA should
receive somewhere between 0.25-1.00", with any localized higher
amounts likely predicated on how widespread elevated convection
actually ends up being late Tues night-Wed AM.

- Touching on the possible (likely?) heat concerns this weekend
  into early next week:
Although admittedly overall-more supported by the latest ECMWF
runs than the GFS (and obviously also not a "sure thing" being
several days out), especially Sunday-Monday look to kick off at
least a 3-4 day stretch of fairly hot weather...with heat index
potential to 100+ degrees again coming into play (albeit
probably not as humid/extreme as our extreme heat in late-July).
Initially hesitated to slip this mention into our Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWOGID), but given how consistent/persistent
recent runs of the ECMWF ensemble have been, opted to introduce
it as a concern.


-- FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS IN GREATER
 DETAIL (through Tuesday afternoon):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
Absolutely zero surprises...everything panning out very much as
outlined here 24 hours ago. Under almost completely clear skies
(only a minor smattering of high cirrus), low temps are on
track to bottom out mainly 63-66 degrees (slightly warmer than
over the weekend). Unlike over the weekend, there is enough of a
light-but-steady south-southeast breeze (most places 5-10 MPH)
to keep fog development at bay.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short-term model data confirm that we remain under
prevailing north-northwesterly flow for a short while
longer...as our region resides under a highly-amplified
interface between a southwestern CONUS high/ridge and an eastern
CONUS low/trough. However, our upcoming changes are approaching
in the form of a vigorous shortwave trough tracks east-
southeast through MT. Meanwhile at the surface, the
aforementioned steady light breezes are driven by an increasing
pressure gradient between a high pressure axis now well to our
east near the MS River...and a roughly 998 millibar low centered
over western SD.

- TODAY (through around 7 PM):
Although probably cannot completely rule out a few rogue
sprinkles trying to develop into a few of our far
northern/northwest counties this afternoon, have maintained an
officially dry forecast as any "true" showers/storms should
still be 50+ miles west of our CWA at 7 PM. Under mostly sunny
skies (albeit a gradual increase in mid-high clouds mainly late
in the day), winds will become quite breezy out of the south-
southeast...sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH.
After aiming 3+ degrees too high on high temps yesterday, opted
to be a bit more conservative for today, but no matter what most
of our CWA should end up at least 3-5 degrees warmer than
yesterday. Highs low-mid 90s most places, but far southwest
Kansas upper 90s to slightly over 100. After also aiming a
little too low on dewpoints yesterday, tried to keep them a
little on the higher side of guidance today. Fortunately, heat
index should stay under 100 for the vast majority of our CWA,
but especially Furnas/Phillips/Rooks could tag 100+ (but staying
shy of Advisory criteria of 105).

- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
In the mid-upper levels, the vigorous shortwave to our north
will charge east through mainly ND/MN/into southeast Canada
overnight, abruptly "flattening" our ridge-dominated pattern and
sending a seasonably-strong cold front southward through our
CWA...marked by a switch to north-northeasterly breezes. This
front will be roughly halfway through our CWA by around
midnight...and then nearly all the way through our
southern/southeast counties by around sunrise. As already
touched on above, at least a broken band of showers/mainly weak
thunderstorms will develop into roughly the western/northwest
half of our CWA mainly 8 PM-midnight...likely gradually
weakening as it moves farther east and also diminishing in
coverage/becoming more spotty as the night wears on. Although
SPC technically clips a small part of our far west-
central/northwest CWA with a Marginal risk of severe, it`s
pretty clear that the vast majority of severe potential should
reside at least slightly off to our west-northwesst over the
general Sandhills region...as latest RAP suggests
instability/CAPE will be under 1000 J/kg amidst only modest
deep-layer shear as storms get into our western counties.
Certainly cannot totally rule out some gusts to around 50 MPH
though into our far west. As for temps, lows aimed from low 60s
northwest...mid 60s central...to upper 60s/around 70 far
south/southeast.


- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
In the wake of the cold front, it will be a much-cooler day.
High temps have trended down slightly (and possibly not enough
especially within our north half). More specifically, highs are
now aimed mid 70s-low 80s most of our CWA, but ranging from low
70s north to mid 80s south (mainly KS) and perhaps a few upper
80s along our extreme southern edge where the front will arrive
last. No matter, most all places 10-20 degrees cooler than
today. As for shower/thunderstorm chances, they are best
described as minimal...but still possible almost anywhere.
Higher-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) suggest at least spotty
showers/weak storms could occur here or there as fairly modest
elevated instability interacts with ripples of low-amplitude
energy passing through aloft from west-to-east. At the surface,
breezy north-northeast winds will prevail...commonly sustained
15-20 MPH/gusts 20-30 MPH.

Higher/more widespread coverage rain/thunderstorm chances
arrive later in the night into Wed AM as a stronger upper wave
arrives from the west-northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Overall been a nice end to the weekend across the area...dry
conditions continue, with satellite imagery showing no shortage
of sunshine...though still seeing some hazy skies due to
wildfire smoke streaming in from the north. A well-amplified
upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this
afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing northerly
flow across the forecast area. The Central Plains is sitting
between a ridge axis extending from the Desert SW northeastward
toward MN...becoming more dampened/tilted further east thanks to
a low pressure system moving through central Canada...and a
trough axis extending from eastern Canada south to the Gulf
Coast region. At the surface, high pressure continues to
gradually shift off to the east...but is keeping winds light
across easterly portions of the area. To the west and northwest,
a trough axis and frontal boundary are becoming better
organized across the High Plains into the western
Dakotas...bringing more solidly southerly winds to central and
western areas, with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. No big
surprises as far as temperatures go...forecast of mid-upper 80s
east to low-mid 90s west remains on track.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight.
Due to the continued deepening of the sfc low/boundaries off
to our WNW, not expecting a drop off in winds
tonight...remaining southerly around 10-15 MPH. Lows look to
drop into the mid 60s for much of the area.

Early to Mid-Week...

Getting into the start of the new work week...overall there
hasn`t been any significant changes to the forecast. During
the daytime hours on Monday...models remain in good agreement
showing an upper level disturbance working its way along the
US/Can border into the Nrn Rockies/High Plains...the forecast
for our area remains dry through 00Z. This system will be
driving a surface cold front south with time...and models are
still in decent agreement with the timing...showing at 00Z the
placement of this front runs roughly from far SWrn NE north
through the Sandhills and into central SD. Ahead of this front
during the daytime hours...expecting gusty southerly winds and a
bump up in temperatures. Sustained speeds around 20-25 MPH and
gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question...with highs
around 90 expected in the east, around 100 in the WSW. During
the mid-late afternoon hours...the RH/wind combo hits near-
critical levels across far WSW portions of the area...but with
fuels unfavorable for rapid fire growth, no formal headlines
were considered...just something to be aware of.

Main question for the evening and overnight hours Monday lies
with thunderstorm chances...still plenty of uncertainties with
the overall coverage/impact. Models showing at least scattered
activity firing along that surface boundary to work its way into
WNW portions of the forecast area...aided by convergence along
an increasing SSWrly low-level jet. With time, most models are
keeping coverage of activity generally scattered in nature with
its eastward shift...likely hindered by the fact that the better
upper level forcing is better focused to our north and that
mid-level/temps is another element storms would have to
overcome. As a result, the higher precip chances in the evening
(40-60 percent) are focused across far WNW portions of the
area...then spread east but drop into the 20-30 percent range
overnight.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday...models are in good
agreement showing that the upper level pattern has
transitioned to more zonal in nature having further dampened the
main ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
both days...as additional waves of upper level shortwave energy
push through the region. Still plenty of uncertainties with the
details...as timing/location of chances will be greatly
influenced by activity that happens the previous
evening/overnight...and how that impacts the ultimate placement
of the main surface cold front or any other lingering
boundaries. The most uncertainty with those details lies with
Tuesday/Tuesday night...as what happens then may provide enough
of a reinforcing push to focus better chances further south for
Wednesday afternoon/overnight. With the increased cloud
cover/precipitation potential...highs for Tue-Wed cool
some...with Tuesday currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s,
Wednesday in the mid-70s to lower-80s.

At this point, none of the days Monday-Wednesday are included in
the SPC severe weather outlooks...though Monday/Day 2 is
pretty close right along our NWrn edge. As mentioned above,
there are some things working against Monday evening-
overnight...and though models on Tuesday show the potential that
shear may be a bit better, the overall upper level forcing
isn`t the best...and just too much uncertainty in the details
for Wednesday. Not out of the question that some storms could be
on the stronger side...but at least at this point it`s not
looking to be an organized severe weather threat.

Late Week Into Next Weekend...

Looking at Thursday on into next weekend...models showing the
ridging trying to reamplify over the western CONUS, but between
an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area and another
working toward western Canada...additional systems moving
through the pattern prevent much strengthening. Models show the
upper level pattern across the area in varying degrees of
northwesterly flow...and while the forecast has some scattered
low-end (mainly 20 percent) chances, confidence in those are
certainly not high at this point. Warmer temperatures also look
to work their way back in...with highs potentially solidly back
in the 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout at least
the vast majority of the period, with the only possible "catch"
being a fairly small chance of briefly-reduced visibility in any
possible downpours very late in the period Monday evening as a
band of showers/non-severe thunderstorms moves in from the west.
As for winds, they offer some concerns both at the surface
(quite breezy from the south during the day today) and also
aloft (two separate periods of moderately-strong low level wind
shear/LLWS).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
While clouds will increase mainly very late in the period Monday
evening, confidence remains high in any ceiling remaining
solidly VFR. However, various higher-res models suggest that a
band of showers/weak thunderstorms could arrive from the west
mainly after 03Z. Given this is toward the very end of the
period and confidence in "exact" timing is still a bit shaky,
have introduced a PROB30 for now.

- Winds:
- Surface winds:
Direction will remain fairly consistent (mainly out of the south
to south-southeast) through the vast majority of the
period...although a well-defined cold front and switch to
northerly winds will be lurking right toward the VERY end of the
period around 06Z (this will be addressed in later TAFs).
Sustained speeds mainly under 12KT will prevail both early this
morning, and again later Monday evening ahead of the cold front.
However, much of the day will be quite breezy, especially the
afternoon with sustained speeds commonly around 20KT/gusts
25-30KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
There are two distinct time frames/groups in these TAFs:
1) Although timing was adjusted a little (now 08-14Z KEAR, still
10-14Z KGRI), have otherwise maintained LLWS for this morning,
as southerly winds ramp up to around 40KT within the lowest 1-2K
ft. AGL...resulting in around 30KT of shear magnitude between
the surface and this level.

2) Another LLWS group has been introduced for 03-06Z late Monday
evening, as southerly winds again ramp up to 35-40KT within the
lowest 1-2K ft. AGL...just ahead of the approaching cold front
and during the same time that surface speeds slacken. Again,
this will result in total shear magnitude around 30KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion