Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

360
FXUS63 KOAX 150335
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at
  90%-100% through the morning.

- Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday
  after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon.

- Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday
  morning with calm winds and clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers
over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a
weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid
City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we
are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over
Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas
northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as
the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper-
level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall
will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending
through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in
dry air.

Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential
for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of
Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains,
we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads
to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains
between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly
winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds
gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning.
Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through
11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough
shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty
winds will likely continue until around 6pm.

With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler
Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong
radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We
expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly
widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool
enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha,
Council Bluffs, and Lincoln.

As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS
over the weekend, we`ll see southwesterly flow move back in
Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into
next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A
weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won`t be
enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through
the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early
next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it
approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to-
mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings
our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next
week.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

We`ve seen improving conditions over the last several hours with
cigs lifting to VFR. Rain moves in overnight bringing back IFR
conditions with winds shifting to northerly. Rain continues
into Thursday with IFR cigs and visibility 3-5SM through the
morning. Winds start to increase during the afternoon as showers
taper off and cigs start to break up and lift.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

322
FXUS63 KGID 150026
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
726 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This evening starts out with a mix of dry conditions in the
  wake of earlier showers (especially north half of our forecast
  area) and at least patchy light drizzle (mainly south half of
  our area).

- Starting mainly after 10 PM, more widespread measurable rain
  in the form of showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms
  will steadily spread SW to NE through our entire area, with
  fairly constant rain (or at least drizzle when it`s not
  actively raining) lasting through Thursday morning. Widespread
  rain amounts of at least 0.40-0.80" are likely nearly our
  entire area, with much more localized heavier amounts up to ~
  1.50" possible here or there.

- The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first
  widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday
  night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered
  below freezing temperatures increasingly likely - especially
  in our typically coolest spots (such as Ord).

- Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the
  70s expected will provide several days of gorgeous fall
  weather this weekend through early next week.

- Our next (and still very "iffy") chance for rain does not
  arrive until next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Clouds, scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms have
been on the increase from S to N today. Most areas won`t see
sunshine again until Friday AM. The initial wave of rain today
is scattered, but there are some embedded heavier cores with a
few rumbles of thunder. Latest guidance lifts this activity S to
N through the remainder of the day, with perhaps some weakening
with northern extent/time.

A much larger, and more persistent, shield of light to moderate
rain (and again, a few embedded weak thunderstorms) will spread
SW to NE across the entire region late tonight, and continue
through most, if not all, of the morning hours Thursday. Not
much change to expected rainfall amounts as both the latest HREF
and EPS are in good agreement. Most areas will receive around
0.25" to 0.75". Very isolated higher amounts up to 1.5" will be
possible, but this will be more of the exception than the rule.
Coverage and intensity will taper off from SW/S to NE/N Thursday
afternoon. Most areas should be done with rain by around
sunset Thursday, though a few sprinkles/very light showers could
linger along the Hwy 81 corridor a couple hours longer. North
winds will be a bit breezy on Thursday as the entire system
lifts through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest - so even
when it`s not raining, its going to feel quite chilly and raw.
High temperatures will only be in the 50s, but it could feel
like mid to upper 40s at times with the breeze. Despite clearing
skies Thursday night, not expecting frost due to breezy
conditions persisting all night.

Strongest high pressure of the fall season thus far will ooze
into the region on Friday. This will gradually lower wind speeds
on Friday, but temperatures will remain seasonably cool only in
the 50s. The cool daytime, in conjunction with clear skies,
weak winds along sfc ridge axis, and recent moisture will likely
set the stage for widespread (perhaps significant/thick) frost
Friday night into Saturday morning. Return flow will be on the
increase towards dawn over the far W/NW, but damage may already
be done in these areas by then. Forecast has been cooling
slightly with each and every cycle, and now all but far SE zones
are forecast to dip to, or just below, freezing Sat AM. As
such, will likely by issuing frost/freeze headlines within the
next 12-18 hours for this threat.

Temperatures will warm nicely Saturday afternoon in the dry
autumn airmass...and expect further moderation to temperatures
Sunday into early next week. In fact, upper 60s to upper 70s are
forecast each day Sunday through Wednesday next week, with our
KS zones possibly even touching the low 80s late in the period.
May have another period of patchy frost to contend with Saturday
night, but a steady southerly breeze should prevent another
round of widespread/thick frost...and lows only warm further
from there next several days. So those looking to extend the
growing season should be able to get at least another week,
provided protective measures are taken Fri night-Sat AM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
This will be an overall-poor aviation period with sub-VFR
ceiling and/or visibility prevailing at least the vast majority
of the time, along with several hours of fairly steady rain
and/or drizzle...and possibly a few thunderstorms. In addition,
the latter half of the period (especially Thursday afternoon)
will feature increasing north-northwest winds, with gusts
25-30KT likely. On a positive note, dry and VFR conditions are
likely to return very late in the period.

- Ceiling/visibility and precipitation details:
Out of the gate this evening, MVFR ceiling prevails at both
KGRI/KEAR. Over the next several hours, ceiling will gradually
lower and light drizzle could get underway. Anytime after around
05Z KEAR/06Z KGRI, steadier rain showers and possibly a few weak
thunderstorms will move in from the west-southwest, with ceiling
deteriorating to IFR as well. Although a few weak thunderstorms
are possible, have opted to leave a formal thunder mention out
of TAFs at this time, instead opting for prevailing SHRA.
Although there will surely be variations on smaller time scales,
visibility is expected to generally prevail MVFR for several
hours in a combination of steadier rain and/or light drizzle and
fog. Although at least intermittent/occasional rain showers
could still occur well into the afternoon (as suggested by
vicinity shower/VCSH groups), opted to end prevailing SHRA
groups 16Z KEAR/17Z KGRI...as by that time the MAIN batch of
activity should be departing off to the east. Finally, a return
to at least a low-end VFR ceiling (if not outright-clearing
skies) is tentatively aimed for 22Z KEAR/23Z KGRI.

- Wind details:
This evening-overnight will certaintly feature the lightest
winds of the period...mainly 5-10KT out of the northeast. Then
for Thursday daytime, direction will shift to northerly then
north-northwesterly as speeds increase on the backside of
departing surface low pressure. In general, sustained speeds
during the morning will prevail 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT...then
increasing to more so 15-20KT/gusts 25-30KT during the
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion