Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

236
FXUS63 KOAX 061853
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
153 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon from
  PM to 10 PM across southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa.
  Severe weather is not expected, but small hail, gusty winds,
  and brief downpours are possible (20-30%).

- Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the
  week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that
  could thwart extreme heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a notable MCV spinning
over the Southern Plains, working with a weak surface low to
continue moisture transport into the Central Plains and loft cloud
debris northward. Another surface feature at play locally is a
decaying front/convergent boundary laid roughly north of
Plattsmouth, pointing eastward across southern Iowa. With clouds
decreasing over the course of the morning, we`ve been able to warm
up into the mid-to-upper 80s, as southeasterly winds remain rather
light -- especially near the boundary.

Convergence along/south of that boundary in addition to the MCV to
the south will combine to increase chances for a few thunderstorms
from southeast Nebraska extending into the southern few tiers of
Iowa Counties. Taking a look at model soundings, very little shear
is in place for any storm to maintain a healthy updraft for very
long, leading to a slow-moving but short-lived character to them. A
few downpours, small hail, and gusts to 40-50 mph will be possible
with the strongest of the storms, with the window for their
occurrence being from 4 PM to 10 PM. Weaker overall convergence
will also limit the number of storms as well, with any location
having a 25% chance of seeing one. Heading into the overnight,
clouds will continue to build into the area and light showers
associated with the MCV/shortwave to the south will begin moving
into the area.

Conditions Sunday are anticipated to be increasingly influenced b y
scattered showers and storms, taking our high temperatures down a
notch or two on their way into the lower 80s. Model soundings
indicate that there will be a bit more life to the vertical wind
profiles tomorrow afternoon, with potential ambient vorticity and
CAPE giving the area a sneaky chance at seeing funnels form
underneath a few of the updrafts and eventual storms that do occur
during the afternoon hours. Nevertheless, large-scale severe weather
will remain low through the early forecast as the more potent flow
remains locked away north of the area.

Monday and Beyond:

The extended forecast remains marred by unseasonably hot
temperatures that are forecast to move in to start the work week.
Highs that started out in the 80s for the weekend trend quickly
upwards, into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees Monday before highs push
into the 90s area-wide through Wednesday and "cool" back down into
the 80s Thursday/Friday. While heat indices don`t get to our
traditional criteria for Heat Advisory, the early nature of this
heat wave in addition to our recent humidity indicates that the
overall Heat Risk -- a wider view on how heat may stress people
and facilities that respond to heat-related illness. As of now,
Tuesday and Wednesday pushes the heat risk into the Major
category, making any messaging related to staying cool and
hydrated a must. Taking a look at precipitation chances remnants
of the MCV combined with an additional mid/upper wave will move
rain chances through the area late Monday, with intermittent
activity remaining through the work week being lobbed from the
Front Range of the Rockies through the area by troughing to the
west. The timing and existence of those rain chances do add a
lot of uncertainty to the high temperature forecast for next
week, and we`ve laid off messaging things too strongly related
to that heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the majority of the
TAF period, with a few low clouds floating along between KLNK
and KOMA at FL021 while gradually lifting. Winds will be out of
the southeast and have been coming in a bit lighter than
previously forecast, with speeds still expected to reach over 10
kts this afternoon before falling off again overnight. A few
thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon/early
evening, but should stay to the southeast of KOMA. Otherwise
MVFR ceilings move in sunrise to mid-morning tomorrow at KLNK
then KOMA, as scattered light showers move in from the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

3-7" or more fell in the Turkey/Swan Creek basins late yesterday
evening into the overnight hours, with additional rainfall
ending up in the Big Blue basin as well. Turkey Creek has
reacted strongly near De Witt, which is forecast to hit minor
flood stage later this evening, while local reaches of the Big
Blue wait until Monday/Tuesday to crest in action to flood
stage. Confidence in the forecasts for the Big Blue will
increase as we go forward, with potential flood warning to be
issued if the current forecast near Dorchester holds going
forward.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen
HYDROLOGY...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

315
FXUS63 KGID 061802
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
102 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms and threat for heavy rain should gradually
  diminish this morning.

- Dry and warm conditions are expected for the rest of the day
  with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
  Lingering moisture and recent rainfall will make it feel
  muggy.

- An upper low moving north out of the Srn Plains will bring
  precip chances back for Sunday, with the best chances
  currently focused across the eastern half of the area.

- Periodic upper level disturbances keep storm chances in the
  forecast as we get into the new work week. Tuesday and
  Wednesday looking to be the overall-hottest days of the week,
  with forecast highs well into the 90s to low 100s. Heat
  indices may reach as high as ~105F.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Been a busy last 12 hours or so with multiple clusters of
thunderstorms for some locations, esp. for areas along and E of
Hwy 281. Have had just enough shear and instability for sporadic
large hail and gusty winds...but by far the greater impact has
been heavy rain and high rainfall rates. Have several flood
products out right now that will likely need to be consolidated
and converted to one or two Areal Flood Warnings. Based on
automated gauges and radar estimates, appears we`ve had a broad
swath of 2-4" of new rainfall, with pockets of even higher
amounts around 4-5", maybe even close to 6". Would classify this
event as very poorly modeled, even as little as 12-24 hours
prior to storm initiation as the majority of models that did
have heavy precip were way too far to the E with it. At any
rate, the conceptual signs were there with a broad, moderately
strong LLJ interacting with deep, copious moisture (PWATs
1.5-1.7") and little to no capping. The combination of high
PWATs and unseasonably weak shear had this event feeling more
like mid to late summer than early June.

Fortunately, the LLJ responsible for the lift is steadily
weakening and veering per latest KUEX VAD. Still have a few
heavier cores hanging tough in Clay and Nuckolls Counties, but
expect these to continue to decline. Could see a very isolated
shower/storm persist as late as 7-8AM, but the vast majority of
the day and the area will be dry for the daytime and evening
hours. Temperatures will warm up quite a bit this afternoon, as
highs climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s - warmest W third.
Expect mainly dry conditions overnight with lows in the 60s.

A broad, weak upper trough - currently spinning over W TX - will
gradually open up and eject NEward on Sun...becoming negatively
tilted as it does so. This wave doesn`t look to have a real
strong focus with it, but rather it will promote broad lift
amidst a continued deeply moist environment. This suggests some
"popcorn style" showers and storms will become possible during
the afternoon/peak heating hours. Our chances will be highest E
of Hwy 281, with even higher chances just off to the E of Hwy
81 into eastern NE/KS. Don`t expect severe weather with these
storms, but they will be capable of brief heavy downpours.
Fortunately, upscale growth into organized clusters (such as
last night) appears quite unlikely at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Currently through tonight...

Conditions have been quiet across the forecast area this morning
on into the early afternoon hours...have had a few sprinkles
clip far northern portions, set up on the southern edge of a
subtle wave, that scattered activity is largely over
northeastern NE on its way into IA. Looking at upper air and
satellite data...flow across the region remains generally zonal
and on the weaker side. Broader picture...one area of low
pressure continues working its way south toward the Pac NW
Coast, with another spinning near the west TX/Mexico
border...while high pressure remains set up over the SErn CONUS.
Had a fair bit of fog/low level stratus earlier this morning
across areas between I-80 and the NE/KS state line...which
largely diminished by mid-morning, but still have some isolated-
scattered CU lingering through that area this afternoon. The
overall sfc pattern across the area is on the weaker side with
most winds around 10-15 MPH...that lingering CU also helps
highlight where one boundary lies, roughly around the HWY
6-state line area, where more dewpoints in the upper 60s-near 70
are...with easterly winds to the north and more southerly winds
to the south. Temps here at 2pm are mainly in the upper 70s
through that central area...with more mid 80s to the north and
mid 80s-near 90 further south.

Main question getting into later today and tonight remains with
thunderstorm chances and where things end up focusing. Even with
a very unstable airmass in place (SPC meso page showing MLCAPE
values exceeding 3000 j/kg already into southern portions of the
forecast area)...models have been pretty consistent showing
little to nothing developing prior to 00Z...just lacking better
upper level forcing. Don`t think it`s out of the question that
heating itself/increased lapse rates could help to spark
activity later this afternoon...it just would likely be pretty
isolated in nature. Anything that would develop obviously has no
shortage of instability to work with...but deeper layer shear
is on the lower side, sitting around 30kts. Models continue to
point more into the evening hours with the development of
thunderstorms...potential ramping up as the low level jet
increases. The main focus of this activity along the nose of the
LLJ looks to be across northern portions of the forecast
area...hi- res models showing areas along/north of I-80 having
the better chances through the overnight hours. Any storms that
develop would have the potential for mainly large hail/damaging
winds, heavy rainfall would be a concern as well...PWAT values
approach 1.5" in eastern portions, helping with activity being
efficient rain-makers, upper level flow being on the weaker side
and potentially running parallel to the line/cluster of storms
could lead to slow movement/training over the same area. If
things do end up developing across our northern areas...at least
over the past 72 hrs the heaviest rain was focused further
south, mainly over areas south of a JYR-MCK line. Still some
uncertainty with just how much activity impacts our forecast
area, as many models focus things more just off to our east.
What activity does impact our area will gradually push east
through the overnight hours...current forecast is dry between
09-12Z, but confidence is not overly high in that timing.

This weekend...

The forecast for the daytime-evening hours on Saturday remains
dry...though some uncertainty remains in the early morning
hours, will be dependent on how much activity develops/moves
through this evening-later tonight. Precipitation chances do
return to the forecast later Saturday night, continuing on into
Sunday. Models remain in pretty good agreement looking at the
upper level pattern...larger scale troughing pushes further
inland from the West Coast, while that low pressure system
currently over west TX/Mex is working its way north. By 00Z
Sunday, models show that upper low only having moved into
roughly the OK/TX panhandle area...with a little more spread
through the overnight hours and into Sunday. How that upper low
tracks NNE will drive precipitation chances for Sunday...some
models track it off to our east, keeping the better chances also
focused to our east...others track it more through our forecast
area, which would give us better chances. At this point the
forecast is trended more toward that eastern track, keeping the
30- 50 percent chances along/east of HWY 281...but we`ll see how
things trend in upcoming model runs. Forecast high temperatures
on Saturday are in the upper 80s-low 90s...with potentially
breezy SSE winds as sfc low pressure/troughing deepens along the
High Plains. Better cloud cover/precip potential for Sunday
drops forecast highs back into the low-mid 80s for most of the
area...with the breezy SSE winds returning.

Next week...

Upper level flow as we get into the new work week is show by
current models to be southwesterly...as that western CONUS
troughing remains, reinforced by another system moving inland.
There will be the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances
to get ejected out ahead of the main trough...keeping those
intermittent storm chances in the forecast. Uncertainty
increases later in the week with the pattern...some models show
a return of more zonal flow as low pressure deepens over central
Canada, others keep things more southwesterly. As far as
temperatures go, models showing the potential for hotter
conditions mainly in the Tue-Wed timeframe, with forecast highs
on Wed currently in the mid 90s-low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to retain throughout most of the forecast
period. South-Southeasterly winds will persist throughout the period,
gusting to around 20 kts in the late afternoon/evening hours, before
becoming calm again overnight.

Cloud cover is expected to increase in coverage this evening as the
fringes of an upper-level system pass. Decreasing heights will
accompany this cloud cover throughout the overnight hours. Various
models are showing the possibility of showers and thunderstorms
possibly impacting KGRI near the end of the forecast period. Exact
coverage is a little uncertain, thus the PROB30 group. If a
thunderstorm does impact KGRI, periods of MVFR ceilings may be
possible. At this time, impacts to KEAR appear to be minimal.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Scott

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion