Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

426
FXUS63 KOAX 191723
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1123 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow, heavy at times, overspreading area today into this
  evening. Plan for difficult travel due to near-zero visibility
  and snow-covered roads, especially from late this afternoon
  into tonight.

- Highest accumulations of up to 4-7" are forecast along a line
  from Albion and Columbus through Fremont, the northern Omaha
  metro and Blair to Harlan, Iowa. Amounts are expected to
  decrease with northward and southward extent away from that
  line.

- Additional light snow is possible (20-40% PoPs) Friday night
  in southeast Nebraska with only minor accumulations expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Rest of today and tonight:

Mid-morning water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough
moving through central NE with an associated belt of forcing
for ascent beginning to overspread our area. Much of the initial
lift will go into top-down saturation of an initially dry low-
level air mass. We are starting to see some light snow in the
northwest part of our area (Albion and Neligh vicinities) with
the snow steadily spreading east across the area through the
remainder of today. The 12z high-resolution models still vary to
some extent with the axis of heaviest snowfall, but the general
consensus is a slight northward shift from previous model runs.
Steep mid-level lapse rates evident on the 12z TOP sounding
will support some upright convective development, especially
from near/just north of the Omaha metro into southwest IA this
afternoon, where some sleet and a few lightning strikes are
possible. Highest snow rates approaching 1"/hr are most probable
from 4-8 PM in those same locations.

This forecast update will indicate a slight northward shift in
the heavy-snow axis (4-7" accumulations), generally from Albion
and Columbus through Fremont, the northern Omaha metro/Blair to
Harlan, IA. Accordingly, Shelby County has been added to the
Winter Storm Warning. As we have been messaging, travel will be
difficult in those areas later this afternoon into tonight due
to near-zero visibilities and snow-covered roads.

The snow is expected to taper off from west-to-east across the
area tonight.

In regard to temperatures, we have lowered readings today owing
to the persistent low-level cold advection occurring to the
north of a surface low currently located just west of Kansas
City.


Friday through Monday:

It will remain cool this period with highs mainly in the 30s.
This is especially the case in areas that receive higher
snowfall accumulation. The models continue to indicate the
potential for some light snow Friday night (20-40% PoPs) in
southeast NE with only a minor accumulation possible.


Tuesday and Wednesday:

The 12z global models indicate the development of zonal flow
aloft, which will support a warmer, low-level pattern with
highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A winter storm will move through the region this afternoon
through this evening. MVFR ceilings at OFK will continue to
spread eastward towards LNK and then OMA over the next couple of
hours. Light snow will develop shortly after these reduced
ceilings. Snow is expected to increase in intensity during the
late afternoon and early evening. Heavier snow is expected to
consistently reduce visibility to MVFR. Visibility and ceilings
may fall to IFR at times in the heaviest snow, especially with
strong winds expected. Brief visibility reductions to 1/2 mile
or less may be possible. Winds through this afternoon and
evening remain strong with speeds around 20 kts and gusts
upwards of 30 kts. Snow should gradually taper off late this
evening from west to east. Visibility and ceilings may be slow
to improve due to blowing snow, but a gradual increase from low
end MVFR to low end VFR conditions is anticipated as we head
into tonight. This will be in conjunction with a gradual
weakening of the winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ015-033-
     034-065>067.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ043>045-
     050>053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     NEZ016>018-031-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ030-042.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ043-079-
     080.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

677
FXUS63 KGID 191809
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1209 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow and strong northerly winds remain on track
  to impact areas MAINLY along and N of I-80 this afternoon into
  this evening (gradually ending west-to-east this evening)

- A Winter Storm Warning is now posted for our 7 Nebraska
  counties along/north of Highway 92, where snow amounts of 5-7"
  are most favored. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
  for counties along I-80 where totals should be mainly in the
  1-3" range.

- Another quick shot of light snow possible Friday night into
  early Saturday morning, mainly for areas along and S of I-80
  down into KS. Snow amounts should remain light (dusting-1") as
  will winds (no more than 5-10 MPH).

- Mainly dry and gradually warmer late weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Quick update regarding winter weather "headlines":

- See upcoming "main" afternoon discussion for more
  details...but for now:
 based on our md-morning forecast update slightly increasing
snow amounts to get at least localized 5" totals into mainly
northern portions of Sherman/Howard/Merrick/Polk counties
(spotty 6" into far northern Sherman/Howard), it was decided to
"upgrade" the aforementioned 4 counties from Advisory to Winter
Storm Warning (especially given wind gusts of 30+ MPH).

- No other changes made to Advisory/Warning configuration at
  this time. In HINDSIGHT (always 20/20, right?), we probably
  should have segmented our official Advisory/Warning "start
  times" to delay the start for especially counties along/east
  of Hwy 281, which were never expected to see much (if any)
  snow before this afternoon. However, snow will EVENTUALLY get
  going in all counties under an Advisory/Warning at some point
  this afternoon...before gradually departing from west-to-east
  this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

As mentioned in the Key Messages...made some adjustments to the
winter weather headlines late last evening to account for some
model trends. Still some very fine-scale uncertainties and the
overall system will be compact and limited in areal coverage -
which makes small changes in track more noticeable. However, the
overall message of this system remains largely unchanged from 24
hours ago:
- snow increases this morning, peaks afternoon-evening, decreases
  overnight
- Main area of accumulation along/N of I-80, heaviest along/N of
  Hwy 92 where 4-6" is most likely and locally heavier amounts
  possible.
- All areas experience gusty N winds around 30-40 MPH that will
  lead to blowing/drifting snow and travel impacts.

In terms of the finer scale details...would not at all be
surprised if we see some thundersnow, or at least some
convective elements, under/within the main W-E band that sets
up in our north later today. Forecast soundings indicate
several factors in support of some, albeit brief and localized,
heavy snow rates of ~1"/hr: deep lift co-located with a
relatively deep dendritic growth zone, steep lapse rates in the
mid-upper levels, and non-zero convective instability and/or
CSI. Also some hints of a decent iso-thermal layer beneath the
DGZ down to the sfc in our far NE zones. The moderate to heavy
snow rates - combined with strong northerly gusts 30-40 MPH,
could create some nasty travel conditions (esp. by this season`s
winter standards), esp. from around Ord to Fullerton. Certainly
would expect some significant travel impacts in these areas
around the time school/work lets out and into the evening hours.
Further south, probably going to be more "off and on"/showery
nature to start, then a more broad/steady shield of mainly light
snow late afternoon into the evening. Still expect amounts to
quickly taper off S of I-80. Snow should wrap up around 10pm to
midnight tonight. Still need to keep a close eye on how the
system evolves next several hours as SOME model guidance places
the heavier snow a little further S closer to I-80...but prefer
to stick with the more consistent European suite of guidance
(deterministic and ensemble) since it`s been quite consistent.

Next item to note will be chance for a second round of snow
Friday night into early Saturday AM. This continues to look like
a very minor event in terms of amounts and overall impacts - as
most areas should see around a dusting to 1" and only light
winds. Areas along and especially south remain most favored for
this round.

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet at this time with
temperatures gradually warming from late weekend through early
next week - perhaps even widespread 60s again for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Rest of Today...
RH values will remain very low this afternoon and early evening
until we start cooling off around sunset. At 2 PM this afternoon
the RH values at most locations were between 15 and 20 percent,
which may allow any sparks to easily turn into fires. Thankfully
the wind is much lighter today and only 10-20 mph. Consequently,
we do not need any Red Flag Warnings today.

Tonight...
A strong cold front will begin sinking south across
the forecast area this evening, mainly after 6 PM. This will
turn the winds from southerly to northeasterly. We will have
cold air advection all night long and especially during the day
on Thursday. The northeasterly winds will increase and shift to
northerly Thursday morning and then eventually northwesterly by
Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected around mid-
day on Thursday at 20-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Again most of the snow >1-2" is expected north of I-80 and
especially along and north of Hwy 92 (2-5"). Things could still
shift a bit, but right now areas south of I-80 across southern
Nebraska look like only a trace to around 1". Little to no snow
is currently expected across north central Kansas.

Our official forecast indicating 5" amounts across our north
leans closer to the highest 10% amounts (7-8"). The lower end,
lowest 10% ensemble amounts in the Ord area are only around 1".
Experience tells me that these high end amounts are overdoing it
for most locations and that the more accurate forecast for our
northern higher end amounts will be (3-5"). Therefore, went with
a Winter Weather Advisory rather than a Winter Storm Warning.
Although 3-5" of snow north of Hwy 92 along with strong winds
will make for some pretty difficult travel by Thursday
afternoon.

Timing...
Most areas will have little to no snow at daybreak. Then we will
see snow beginning in most northern locations during the morning
hours, peaking in the afternoon and then diminishing during the
evening hours.

Uncertainty...
There could be a narrow band of 5-7" embedded within the more
general 3-5 band. If this happens we many need to upgrade a few
counties to a Winter Storm Warning, most likely location for
this would be our northern most counties around the towns of
Ord and Greeley.

Friday...
A second shortwave trough will swing across the central plains
bringing another chance for snow, but this one appears lighter,
generally flurries up to 1", mainly focused on Friday evening
and overnight. Cold weather persists, mainly in the 30s, but
there are also models that keep us cooler, highs below freezing
in the 20s.

Saturday and Sunday...
Cool and dry northwesterly flow will keep highs only in the 30s
northeast to the 40s southwest. However, this forecast is at the
upper end of the ensemble forecast with more potential that we
could end up colder, for example, highs may only be in the 20s
if the colder models are correct.

Next Week...
Monday could still be cool, but a transition day with more
uncertainty. Confidence increases in nice weather returning by
Tuesday and Wednesday as most models bring highs back up into
the 50s and perhaps even 60s. We will most likely dry out again
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
KGRI/KEAR will catch the southern fringes of a fairly potent
winter storm that will MAINLY impact areas 20+ miles farther
north. However, several hours of light to occasionally moderate
snow and prevailing MVFR ceiling is likely this afternoon into
early this evening, before snow ends and VFR returns. Total snow
accumulation is currently projected to range from 1-3" (higher
amounts in this range slightly favoring KGRI vs. KEAR).

The secondary issue will be moderately-strong north-northwest
winds, especially right away these first 2-4 hours when they
will be at their strongest (sustained 20-25KT/gusts 30-35KT).
However, these speeds will VERY GRADUALLY decrease through the
late afternoon and evening, with sustained speeds down to around
10KT-or-less by around 06Z and through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ039>041-
     046>049.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     NEZ060>064.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch/Thies
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion