Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

224
FXUS63 KOAX 151753
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very High Fire Danger is forecast in parts of northeast
  Nebraska today, and will span the entire forecast area on
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week,
  rising into the 70s by Tuesday.

- A more active pattern returns late Tuesday through the end of
  the week, with cooling temperatures and multiple chances for
  light rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today through Tuesday...

Dense fog developed across far southeast Nebraska and western Iowa,
this morning, primarily where moisture pooled after Saturday`s light
rainfall. Temperatures dropped into the 20s under clear skies over
northeast Nebraska. The blanket of patchy dense fog kept lows in the
30s across the southern half of the forecast area.

A subtle ridge of high pressure will develop over the central CONUS
today, bringing another day of well above normal temperatures. Highs
this afternoon will push well into the mid 60s today, with a few
locations possibly reaching 70.

Prevailing dry conditions over northeast Nebraska will allow
relative humidities to dip to 20-30% in a few locations. Winds will
increase through the day, with a few gusts up to 20 to 25 mph
possible late this afternoon and evening. Combined with the warm
temperatures, this will likely lead to a region of Very High Fire
Danger in far northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa.

Similarly, warm temperatures are expected Monday, with the potential
to gain a few extra degrees. Winds are forecast to weaken through
the day. Additionally, moisture will increase over the region,
relegating fire danger concerns to the High category over northeast
Nebraska.

Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching
shortwave will bring a surge of even warmer air Tuesday, with the
majority of the forecast area expected to reach into the mid and
possibly upper 70s. Breezier south winds and relative humidities
falling to 20 to 40 percent across the majority of the forecast area
will bring an even greater risk for Very High Danger Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

The previously mentioned shortwave and resulting surface low will
pass through the Dakotas Tuesday, potentially resulting in another
round of showers Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as a cold
front moves through (20-40%). Temperatures will dip a few degrees
behind the front Wednesday. Highs are currently expected to reach
into the 60s over the southern half of the forecast area. High
temperatures may be reached earlier in the day, behind the front in
northeast Nebraska. There, expect cooler highs in the 50s,
especially where showers and cloud cover linger.

Drier air will move in behind the departing system Wednesday
afternoon. Locations that miss the patchy rainfall will likely see
an additional day of Very High Fire danger, where winds gust up to
20-30 mph and minimum RH bottoms out around 15-25%.

Thursday and Beyond...

Cooler, moist air surges back into the region until Thursday and
Friday, as the main trough and surface cold front passes through the
Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to dip into the 30s
and 40s late this week. This system will create another surface low
with the potential to bring precipitation across the region. Cold
air wrapping around the backside of this low is expected to
transition rain over to snow Thursday into Friday. The best chance
for any accumulating snow currently looks to be over far northeast
Nebraska Thursday into Friday.

Cooler temperatures and periodic precipitation chances will
continue into the upcoming weekend as another low pressure
system traverses the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
increase out of the south/southwest this afternoon, with
occasional gusts up to 20 to 25 kts possible through the
evening. LLWS is expected to develop around 05Z tonight, and
effect KLNK and KOMA until winds diminish by 12Z Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday`s standing records vs the forecast

     Norfolk 72 | 1981 .. 74 | 2026
     Lincoln 74 | 2017 .. 77 | 2026
     .Offutt 65 | 1970 .. 75 | 2026
     .Eppley 75 | 2017... 75 | 2026
     Tekamah 66 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026
  Falls City 76 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026
  Valley NWS 69 | 2017... 76 | 2026

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
CLIMATE...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

755
FXUS63 KGID 151730
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1130 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning, mainly along and south of the
  KS/NE state line.

- Dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures will be the
  rule this afternoon through midweek.

- This will lead to at least a couple rounds of fire weather
  concerns for at least portions of the forecast area - first
  this afternoon over the far W/NW where a Red Flag Warning is
  in place. Another round of dangerous fire weather is becoming
  increasingly likely for Tuesday afternoon.

- Cooler, and potentially more active, weather returns late in
  the week...but confidence on details remains low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 403 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

***Fire weather concerns are detailed below.***

A fairly substantial area of dense fog has developed early this
morning behind departing clouds from yesterday`s system - within
a zone of light and variable winds. These light winds coincide
nicely with where the heaviest rain amounts (0.50-1.00") fell on
Saturday, which is likely contributing to the fog, as well.
Short term models - while struggling with EXACT placement and
coverage - are in decent agreement that fog will steadily burn
off around mid morning given westerly low level flow and full
insolation. Once the fog burns off, there will be nothing to
stop us from warming up well into the 60s for this afternoon -
an excellent way to round out a weekend - in mid-February, no
less! Do NOT think we`ll see a repeat round of fog tonight since
we`ll mix out the shallow low level moisture this afternoon,
though can`t completely rule out some small patches of ground
fog where winds/temperatures will be lowest over W portions of
the forecast area.

Monday will likely be the pick day of the week as the warmth
continues (highs once again in the 60s), but winds weaken to
only 5-10 MPH. Tuesday continues to look like the warmest day of
the forecast/upcoming week with widespread highs in the 70s, and
perhaps even some lower 80s in favored warm spots in our SW.
Official forecast is already calling for easy new record high
temperatures...and these types of setups almost always trend
warmer the day before and/or of. For reference, the latest NBM
75th percentile - which seems quite plausible given warm start
to the day and dry/dormant ground conditions - is a whopping 82
to 87 degrees! If this were to pan out, this would shatter all-
time MONTHLY records for February at both Hastings and Grand
Island - which are "only" 80 degrees. For reference, neither
Hastings or Grand Island have ever reached or exceeded a high
temperature at or above 85 degrees before March 10th! So some
seriously anomalous warmth quite possible - if not likely - for
Tuesday. Highs cool to "only" 60s for Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026


Only a few remaining showers linger across southwest portions of the
area this afternoon (mainly south of HWY-6 and east of HWY-183). The
last of these rain showers will quickly dissipate this evening,
followed by clearing skies across the rest of the night. Residual
moisture with expected light to calm winds overnight may help allow
some some fog to form. The overall best potential for fog will be
concentrated towards portions of the area that received more
meaningful precipitation amounts today (areas south of I-80).
Though a few denser patches of fog may arise (20-30% HREF & 20-50%
REFS chances), it is not certain that coverage will spread enough to
provoke the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

A surface low, situated across the Southern Plains today, will
continue to move east tonight and tomorrow. Higher pressure will
rebound in the low`s wake, turning the surface winds towards the
southeast for Sunday. Aloft, a ridge will start to move in overhead,
bringing some stabilization and drier conditions to the area. Steady
10-20 MPH southwest downsloping winds (adiabatic warming) paired
with clearing skies Sunday (diurnal warming) should allow
temperatures to spread up and into the mid to upper 60s. A handful
of northwestern lying locations can`t be completely ruled out to
break into the low 70s even (10-20% chance).

A few clouds rolling in Monday should not dampen this warming trend
as southerly light warming winds will be expected to maintain along
with deep subsidence aloft from the upper-level riding pattern.
Highs for the week are favored to peak Tuesday (70s) with gusty
southwesterly winds (25-35MPH) cranking up the downslope warming
trend. Fire Weather concerns return to the area Sunday afternoon
with an even stronger potential Tuesday afternoon. A Red Flag
Warning will be in effect for Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Sherman and
Valley counties from noon until 6PM Sunday afternoon. Please refer
to the Fire Weather section for more information.

The next major pattern change up will take place near the middle of
next week as a powering southwest jet launches up into the Central
Plains. This feature will stir up conditions locally as well as
bring a few precipitation chances to the area. The next chance of
precipitation (15-30% chance) resides across our northeastern areas
Tuesday night as a surface low is expected to slice across the
Northern Plains.

A cold front passing sometime Wed/Thur will chop highs back to the
40s to low 50s through the end of the week. For now, we keep our
eyes on the precipitation potential for Thursday into Friday (20-40%
chances) as falling temperatures could reintroduce some snow to
parts of the area. Any additional details regarding snow potential
remains limited as this event is still beyond 5 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast to maintain throughout the period.
A few clouds will fill in later today/tonight, though ceilings
are not expected to approach MVFR levels. The primary aviation
hazard will be from the presence of 40-45kts of southwesterly
LLWS tonight between 4-10z. Winds this afternoon and tonight
will remain fairly stable between 10-15kts with occasional
gusts as high as 25kts. Winds will later retun back to light to
calm conditions after 8z. Otherwise, the terminals are expected
to remain dry.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Combination of mostly sunny skies and dry, westerly downsloping
winds will likely lead to near critical to critical fire weather
conditions for portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Near critical conditions should remain W and NW of the Tri-
Cities...and critical conditions still appear to be on track
for extreme W/NW portions of the forecast area from around
Arapahoe to Lexington to Ord. As such, didn`t make any changes
to the existing Red Flag Warning area or time. These areas are
where RH`s are mostly likely to dip to around 20 percent, and
winds gust 20-25 MPH. Even worse fire weather conditions will
develop just W of the area - from SW Nebraska into the Sandhills.
Overall, generally a marginal side of the "Red Flag Warning
spectrum" for our area this afternoon.

Winds will remain very light on Monday, so no fire weather
concerns are expected at this time.

The most dangerous fire weather day continues to look to be
Tuesday afternoon - as this has the potential to be more of a
"high-end" type of Red Flag Warning day. Tuesday has, and
continues to look like, a more traditional "synoptically
evident" type of day where the region is located on the warm
side of a deepening lee trough that promotes strong, deep, and
efficient mixing within persistent SWrly low to mid level flow.
This will be day 3 of the very warm/dry pattern, so we`ll be
"primed", so to speak, in terms of both fuels and readiness to
quickly warm Tuesday morning. The latest deterministic forecast
calls for peak wind gusts of 30-35 MPH and minimum RH values in
the 15 to 25 percent range. However, probabilistic/ensemble
data suggests gusts could be easily 5-10 MPH (at least for areas
SW of the Tri-Cities) and RHs could be lower if the
aforementioned 75th percentile high temperatures indeed pan out.
Not surprisingly, latest GFDI numbers for our area are in the
"Very High" category (level 3 of 6), and "Extreme" to
"Catastrophic" (levels 5 and 6) categories are only juuuust
W/SW of the area. Bottom line...all parties with interests in
fire suppression need to keep a close eye on forecast trends,
and potential fire weather headlines, for Tuesday afternoon into
early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039-046-
     060-072-082.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion