Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

795
FXUS63 KOAX 030417
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps climb another few degrees for Monday as elevated
  wildfire smoke continues to produce hazy skies.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another
  warming trend likely toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

It`s another mostly clear evening with temperatures in the 70s
as of 10pm. Fog from early this morning is not expected to
repeat tonight due to winds persisting out of the south around 5
to 15 mph. If we were to see anything it would be in sheltered
areas more likely in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa where
winds are weakest. Temperatures forecast to fall into the mid
60s by daybreak.

Looking at satellite and the upper-level pattern, we see the
ridge centered over the Northern Plains with a broad trough over
the Ohio River Vally stretching down into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Out to the northwest we have another broad trough over
the Canadian Rockies that will play a role in helping to squash
down the ridge over the Northern Plains over the next few days.

Monday will be very similar to today. We`ll see strengthening
southerly flow ramping up ahead of the deepening area of low
pressure across the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle. This
will help temperatures warm a few degrees warmer than today with
highs in the upper 80s across southwest Iowa and lower 90s for
eastern Nebraska. Monday evening a fully developed frontal
boundary will trigger showers and storms across central Nebraska
into northeast South Dakota. As the front approaches through the
evening we see increased elevated instability in the region of
pooling moisture to our west. As the front arrives, though, hi-
res guidance really eats away at the amount of instability with
the best environment in our area being around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE over northeast Nebraska between 05-10Z. Bulk shear around
that time stays insignificant until you get behind the cold
front lending toward little-to-no severe threat across our area.
Any stronger storms approaching should decay as they arrive.
Showers and storms should arrive around midnight or just after,
scattered in nature with more widespread showers and storms
likely not arriving until closer to midday Tuesday.

The cold front drops south but stalls across our area on Tuesday
acting as a focus for increased moisture through the afternoon.
Model guidance really doesn`t show much of a trigger, but the
HRRR really blows up along the boundary during the afternoon.
May be a case of the HRRR overconvecting. In any case, if storms
were to get going during the afternoon, hodographs show modest,
but not insignificant amount of shear. Bulk shear values of
35-40kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This could organize a few
stronger storms, but again, we may not have enough forcing to
get storms really going during the afternoon. Better chances
look to be as a shortwave skirts us to our north potentially
triggering some elevated storms overnight along the frontal
boundary. Model soundings show winds are fairly unidirectional
through the unstable layer at this time indicating not a
significant severe threat with these storms.

The forecast beyond Tuesday will greatly depend on how storms
shift the surface boundary Tuesday afternoon and overnight.
Areas north of the front starting Tuesday will see the Canadian
High keep temperatures fairly cool for this time of year with
highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. This remains true for areas north
of the front on Wednesday, which likely will be over most of our
area as the front should push south of the Nebraska-Kansas state
line for Wednesday. Broad troughing over the Central US as well
as a jet streak positioned from southern Idaho east through
Wyoming and Nebraska will lend toward additional shortwaves
bringing more chances for showers and storms along and north of
this frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday. Shouldn`t be
a complete wash-out all day, but do think many across our area
will see at least some rainfall. We expect a swath of heavier
amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches just north of the frontal
boundary, right now looking to be near the I-80 corridor from
around Lincoln to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Amounts drop off north
and south with around a tenth of an inch or less north around
Antelope County east through Monona as well as a tenth to a
quarter of an inch in far southeast Nebraska and near the
Missouri state line in Iowa.

Thursday we should see the trough dig far enough south to push
rain chances down into Kansas and Missouri. With the Canadian
High still in place, temperatures will remain mild, though
clearer skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low
80s. Smoke could be a concern Thursday as subsidence from the
high centered across our area may allow it to sink toward the
ground, but we won`t have a good idea of the extent until hi-res
guidance comes out 36-48 hours in advance.

The forecast toward the end of the week becomes more difficult
as the ridge over the Desert Southwest fights to build back up
while an active troughing pattern over the PacNW fights it back
down. Models diverge significantly in the details including any
potential rain chances for our area, but the general trend is
for temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s on Friday and
low 90s for the weekend as that ridge expands eastward over the
Central and Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period.
Southerly winds will increase by mid-morning, with gusts of
22-25 kts. Skies may be a bit hazy with some smoke well aloft,
but do not anticipate any flight condition impacts. Mid- and
upper-level cloud cover will increase in the final few hours of
the forecast period, with rain chances filtering in afterwards.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

611
FXUS63 KGID 030609
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
109 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Forecast remains dry through the daytime hours on Monday. An
  approaching surface cold front will provide a focus for storm
  development...with some of this activity pushing east into the
  area during the evening-overnight hours.

- Additional chances for storms continue on into Tuesday and
  Wednesday, mainly focused on the late day-evening/overnight
  hours. Some uncertainties remain, as activity could be
  impacted by how sfc boundaries/lingering cloud cover evolve
  from the previous nights.

- Not out of the question that some storms Mon-Tue could be on
  the stronger side, at this point there doesn`t look be an
  overly organized severe weather threat across our area.

- Scattered precipitation chances continue on through the end of
  the week, with lowering confidence in the details the further
  out you go.

- Highs on Monday are back up in the 90s-near 100...cooling Tue-
  Wed into the 70s-80s with increased precip chances. Highs look
  to return back solidly into the 90s by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Overall been a nice end to the weekend across the area...dry
conditions continue, with satellite imagery showing no shortage
of sunshine...though still seeing some hazy skies due to
wildfire smoke streaming in from the north. A well-amplified
upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this
afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing northerly
flow across the forecast area. The Central Plains is sitting
between a ridge axis extending from the Desert SW northeastward
toward MN...becoming more dampened/tilted further east thanks to
a low pressure system moving through central Canada...and a
trough axis extending from eastern Canada south to the Gulf
Coast region. At the surface, high pressure continues to
gradually shift off to the east...but is keeping winds light
across easterly portions of the area. To the west and northwest,
a trough axis and frontal boundary are becoming better
organized across the High Plains into the western
Dakotas...bringing more solidly southerly winds to central and
western areas, with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. No big
surprises as far as temperatures go...forecast of mid-upper 80s
east to low-mid 90s west remains on track.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight.
Due to the continued deepening of the sfc low/boundaries off
to our WNW, not expecting a drop off in winds
tonight...remaining southerly around 10-15 MPH. Lows look to
drop into the mid 60s for much of the area.

Early to Mid-Week...

Getting into the start of the new work week...overall there
hasn`t been any significant changes to the forecast. During
the daytime hours on Monday...models remain in good agreement
showing an upper level disturbance working its way along the
US/Can border into the Nrn Rockies/High Plains...the forecast
for our area remains dry through 00Z. This system will be
driving a surface cold front south with time...and models are
still in decent agreement with the timing...showing at 00Z the
placement of this front runs roughly from far SWrn NE north
through the Sandhills and into central SD. Ahead of this front
during the daytime hours...expecting gusty southerly winds and a
bump up in temperatures. Sustained speeds around 20-25 MPH and
gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question...with highs
around 90 expected in the east, around 100 in the WSW. During
the mid-late afternoon hours...the RH/wind combo hits near-
critical levels across far WSW portions of the area...but with
fuels unfavorable for rapid fire growth, no formal headlines
were considered...just something to be aware of.

Main question for the evening and overnight hours Monday lies
with thunderstorm chances...still plenty of uncertainties with
the overall coverage/impact. Models showing at least scattered
activity firing along that surface boundary to work its way into
WNW portions of the forecast area...aided by convergence along
an increasing SSWrly low-level jet. With time, most models are
keeping coverage of activity generally scattered in nature with
its eastward shift...likely hindered by the fact that the better
upper level forcing is better focused to our north and that
mid-level/temps is another element storms would have to
overcome. As a result, the higher precip chances in the evening
(40-60 percent) are focused across far WNW portions of the
area...then spread east but drop into the 20-30 percent range
overnight.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday...models are in good
agreement showing that the upper level pattern has
transitioned to more zonal in nature having further dampened the
main ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
both days...as additional waves of upper level shortwave energy
push through the region. Still plenty of uncertainties with the
details...as timing/location of chances will be greatly
influenced by activity that happens the previous
evening/overnight...and how that impacts the ultimate placement
of the main surface cold front or any other lingering
boundaries. The most uncertainty with those details lies with
Tuesday/Tuesday night...as what happens then may provide enough
of a reinforcing push to focus better chances further south for
Wednesday afternoon/overnight. With the increased cloud
cover/precipitation potential...highs for Tue-Wed cool
some...with Tuesday currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s,
Wednesday in the mid-70s to lower-80s.

At this point, none of the days Monday-Wednesday are included in
the SPC severe weather outlooks...though Monday/Day 2 is
pretty close right along our NWrn edge. As mentioned above,
there are some things working against Monday evening-
overnight...and though models on Tuesday show the potential that
shear may be a bit better, the overall upper level forcing
isn`t the best...and just too much uncertainty in the details
for Wednesday. Not out of the question that some storms could be
on the stronger side...but at least at this point it`s not
looking to be an organized severe weather threat.

Late Week Into Next Weekend...

Looking at Thursday on into next weekend...models showing the
ridging trying to reamplify over the western CONUS, but between
an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area and another
working toward western Canada...additional systems moving
through the pattern prevent much strengthening. Models show the
upper level pattern across the area in varying degrees of
northwesterly flow...and while the forecast has some scattered
low-end (mainly 20 percent) chances, confidence in those are
certainly not high at this point. Warmer temperatures also look
to work their way back in...with highs potentially solidly back
in the 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout at least
the vast majority of the period, with the only possible "catch"
being a fairly small chance of briefly-reduced visibility in any
possible downpours very late in the period Monday evening as a
band of showers/non-severe thunderstorms moves in from the west.
As for winds, they offer some concerns both at the surface
(quite breezy from the south during the day today) and also
aloft (two separate periods of moderately-strong low level wind
shear/LLWS).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
While clouds will increase mainly very late in the period Monday
evening, confidence remains high in any ceiling remaining
solidly VFR. However, various higher-res models suggest that a
band of showers/weak thunderstorms could arrive from the west
mainly after 03Z. Given this is toward the very end of the
period and confidence in "exact" timing is still a bit shaky,
have introduced a PROB30 for now.

- Winds:
- Surface winds:
Direction will remain fairly consistent (mainly out of the south
to south-southeast) through the vast majority of the
period...although a well-defined cold front and switch to
northerly winds will be lurking right toward the VERY end of the
period around 06Z (this will be addressed in later TAFs).
Sustained speeds mainly under 12KT will prevail both early this
morning, and again later Monday evening ahead of the cold front.
However, much of the day will be quite breezy, especially the
afternoon with sustained speeds commonly around 20KT/gusts
25-30KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
There are two distinct time frames/groups in these TAFs:
1) Although timing was adjusted a little (now 08-14Z KEAR, still
10-14Z KGRI), have otherwise maintained LLWS for this morning,
as southerly winds ramp up to around 40KT within the lowest 1-2K
ft. AGL...resulting in around 30KT of shear magnitude between
the surface and this level.

2) Another LLWS group has been introduced for 03-06Z late Monday
evening, as southerly winds again ramp up to 35-40KT within the
lowest 1-2K ft. AGL...just ahead of the approaching cold front
and during the same time that surface speeds slacken. Again,
this will result in total shear magnitude around 30KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion