Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

751
FXUS63 KOAX 182315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph will continue this
  afternoon, decreasing in intensity this evening. A High Wind
  Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect through 6 pm this
  evening.

- Spotty snow showers will taper off this evening. Combined with
  the strong winds, could see a few localized areas of reduced
  visibilities.

- Areas of eastern Nebraska will see high to very high fire
  danger Friday.

- Dry conditions are largely forecast for the weekend with
  temperatures primarily in the 40s. Warming trend takes place
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

H5 RAP objective analysis this afternoon shows a powerful shortwave
trof moving east across the Dakotas into Minnesota. The potent
shortwave has induced a strong 986 mb sfc low now located over far
northwest Minnesota toward Lake Superior. A tight pressure gradient
is thus observed across much of the Northern and Central Plains
where very strong winds have been reported.

H8 and H9 objective analysis shows a strong 40 to 50 kt low level
jet on the back side of the main low. Coupled with the strong cold
air advection and subsequent subsidence, we continue to see
strong northwest gusts of 50 to 65 mph across eastern Nebraska
into far western Iowa. Forecast BUFKIT soundings show
essentially a dry adiabatic profile from the sfc to about H8
indicating good mixing into said jets. Given latest model
guidance remains fairly similar to previous shift, have kept the
High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory in effect through 00z
Friday. Wind gusts should begin to subside as the H8 low and
associated jets push east of the forecast area sometime after
03z. Could still see lingering breeziness into the overnight
hours, but winds should largely taper off as a weak sfc ridge
tracks east across the state.

Of concern this afternoon continues to be the convectively induced
snow showers that have developed primarily along and east of the
Missouri River Valley. BUFKIT soundings continue to highlight a few
J/kg of CAPE from the sfc to near H8, helping fuel said showers.
Coupled with the strong northwest winds, have already had reports
from local emergency management of localized visibility reductions
within the snow showers. Will continue to monitor trends in the near
term and issue potential Special Weather Statements should they
become necessary. Have extended coverage area of PoPs for this
forecast package to cover a good portion of eastern Nebraska into
western Iowa (15 to 20% chance of snow through 23z).

High temperatures for today largely occurred in the early morning
hours for most locations, and temperatures should continue to fall
throughout the remainder of the day. Lows for tonight will be in the
low teens across our far north, to mid to upper teens for the rest
of the area.

The cold temperatures should be short lived given a baroclinic zone
at H8 lifts to the northeast throughout the day Friday. Should see
highs bounce back to the upper 30s across far western Iowa, and the
mid to upper 40s for most locations under a mix of clouds and sun.
Areas near our far western border area could approach the mid 50s.
Winds will be breezy from the south, but forecast soundings suggest
we won`t mix into a stronger H8 jet. The breeziness along with low
relative humidity will lead to areas of high to very high fire
danger, primarily across eastern Nebraska. For Friday night, should
see lows reach the low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

H5 pattern shows a mostly zonal to slightly northwesterly flow for
Saturday and Sunday across the Central Plains. A weak H5 shortwave
embedded within said zonal flow will traverse the area on Saturday,
while at the sfc, a cold front treks east. Deterministic global
guidance keeps us dry as the disturbances move through, but latest
CAM suite shows weak showers across the forecast area during the
daytime. Much of this activity though appears to be forced by low
level FGEN as synoptic scale lift/forcing appears weak. However,
forecast BUFKIT soundings show a substantial amount of dry air from
just below H7 to the sfc, so have kept NBM solution of dry
conditions. Highs Saturday will cool slightly behind the front, but
will still be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

By Sunday into Monday, another weak wave traverses the flow in
tandem with low level warm air advection generating some lift.
Deterministic guidance like the GFS does spit out a few
hundredths of QPF along our far north, but vast majority of
ensemble guidance seems to suggest dry conditions. For much of
next week, will see the H5 ridge build across much of the
central CONUS. As a result, should see 1000-500mb thicknesses
increase, so expect to see warming temperatures in the low to
mid 50s. At this time, precipitation chances beyond Monday
remain little to none.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
strong northwest winds gradually diminishing between 19/00z-19/06z.
Winds switch to south Friday morning and increase to 13-16 kt
with gusts of 19-24 kt in the 19/15z-19/18z timeframe. The
models indicate increasing potential for LLWS at all terminal
locations late Friday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078-088.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ067-068-
     089>093.
IA...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

578
FXUS63 KGID 182336
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Winds this afternoon will diminish quickly this evening
  ending the primary impacts around sunset.

- Breezy winds from the south Friday allowing temperatures to
  moderate back into the 50s for most.

- Long-term trend, upper level ridging will bring well above
  normal temperatures for the Holiday week, including Christmas
  Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

The High Wind and Red Flag Warnings will be allowed to expire at
6pm as winds quickly diminish with sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Strong northerly winds have been present throughout the day
today as the secondary front came through during the morning
hours. Frequent northerly wind gusts exceeding 58 mph (with some
exceeding 70 mph) have been present across much of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. These winds will
begin to diminish over the next couple hours as the upper system
moves off and the sun sets minimizing boundary layer mixing.
The change will be fairly rapid with surface high pressure
overhead during the overnight hours and light and variable winds
at most locations by midnight. The rapid decline in winds may
allow the High Wind Warning to be expired/cancelled slightly
early, but at a minimum the 6pm looks to be fine as an
expiration time.

The strong winds coupled with low RH values will keep
fire danger elevated, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
until 6pm as well, as the winds decrease and RH values increase
by 6pm, the RFW will also be able to be expired/cancelled early.

Overall upper level flow will transition from zonal/slight
northwesterly flow to upper level ridging by mid next week. No
major weather systems are expected to move through the area
during this time. Temperatures will begin on a big of a roller
coaster before moving higher as we approach Christmas Day.

Friday night/Saturday morning, another front will move through,
dropping temps under mostly cloudy skies, but no precipitation
is expected.

As we move into the Holiday week, temperatures will be well
above normal. For reference, highs in the upper 30s are
climatological norms for mid/late December. Temps will be in
the 50s to 60s next week. On Christmas Day alone, the high looks
to be in the low 60s. The Record High for Christmas Day at
Grand Island, NE (KGRI) is 62 degrees. The full suite of 100
models at 7 days out indicates that there is a 31% chance that
the temperature will exceed 60 degrees, and a 62% chance the
temp will exceed 55 degrees at Grand Island. No holiday travel
impacts are currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the period (95% confidence).
Winds quickly taper off this evening and turn back to the south
and southwest for Friday. Gusts 25-30kts are expected at times
through the daytime Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion