Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

376
FXUS63 KOAX 132338
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
538 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and potentially record-breaking temperatures
  for Friday.

- Very high fire danger in portions of eastern Nebraska Friday
  afternoon.

- A medium chance (30-50%) of precipitation on Monday. There is
  a high chance (70-90%) this precipitation remains as rain, but
  a low (10-20%) chance that northern portions of the area may
  see a mix of snow during the morning and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A large mid-level ridge remains situated over the Rocky Mountains
this afternoon. Quiet and warm weather can be expected this
afternoon as a result. Temperatures are quickly climbing into the
upper 60s and lowers 70s this afternoon under plentiful sunshine.
Tonight sees clear skies and light winds with temperatures largely
in the 40s by sunrise. Better moisture will begin to move back into
the region during this time. This increasing moisture may lead to
the development of patchy fog across portions of southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward, becoming centered
over the Great Plains. This is expected to set the stage for an
unseasonably warm Friday afternoon. Warm southwesterly winds and
mostly clear skies push many locations well into the 70s to near 80
for a few locations west of a line from about Norfolk to Lincoln.
With such warm temperatures, records may be broken for many
observing sites across the area. Currently, Norfolk is expected to
reach 78 F, smashing the previous record of 72 F set in 2001.
Similarly, Lincoln is forecast to reach 77 F breaking the record of
75 F set in 1990. Omaha may get close to record temperatures with a
high near 74 F. This may fall just shy of the previous record of 76
set in 1964. Outside of this warmth, dry conditions and stronger
winds result in very high fire danger for portions of eastern
Nebraska tomorrow as well.

This weekend sees a deepening trough move southeast out of Canada
into the Great Lakes and New England. This pushes a cold front south
through the region dropping temperatures a little on Saturday. That
said, above normal temperatures well into the 60s are anticipated.
No rain is to be expected with this cold front as the trough keeps
any large-scale support north of the region. Temperatures cool
further on Sunday with mid 50s and lower 60s for many.

Out next weather system is set to arrive early next week, likely on
Monday. Current forecast guidance is a bit split on the overall
outcome of this system. Many ensembles lift the trough out of the
Four Corners towards our region. This outcome keeps any
precipitation as rain with only a few snowflakes possible across our
northern counties. The GEFS, on the other hand, has a colder
solution as it keeps the trough stronger and passes it south of the
area. In this scenario, light snow with slushy accumulations may
materialize, especially during the morning and evening hours. In
either event, there is a medium chance (30-50%) of precipitation
across the region with a low chance (10-20%) of snow mixing in
across our north. Temperatures come out cooler on Monday with cloud
cover and precipitation from this system as many only climb into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. These temperatures will fluctuate a bit as
the exact track of our next system becomes clearer. The colder
temperatures are expected to remain in place ahead of the next
weather system arriving sometime towards the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period with winds
staying out of the south. There may be patchy fog in the area of
KOMA Friday morning from 10-16Z, but only a 10% chance fog
impacts the terminal as of latest guidance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

159
FXUS63 KGID 132327
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm, record breaking air is still expected
  Friday, temperatures will likely reach at least 80 degrees at
  many locations.

- Dry frontal passage Saturday AM will cool things off for the
  weekend but temperatures will still be well above normal.

- The next chance for precipitation is Monday with rain and some
  snow in the forecast, but this also ushers in a general
  pattern change to a more active overall likely to last through
  the end of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Unseasonably warm, record breaking air is still expected Friday, as
temperatures will likely reach 80 degrees at many locations.

- Dry frontal passage Saturday AM will cool things off for the
weekend but temperatures will still be well above normal.

- The next chance for precipitation is Monday with light rain in the
forecast for some areas, but this also ushers in the start of a
general pattern change to a more active pattern overall, which is
likely to last through the end of November.

Another mild afternoon across the area as skies have generally
cleared or will do so. Some locations reached today`s normal high
temperatures by 10:30 AM! Lee side troughing influencing the western
portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas has
resulted in a mix of winds from the south/southwest/west/northwest
but winds will generally setting into a southerly direction this
evening. Speaking of this evening/overnight, skies will be clear
with lows above normal again.

Friday, as has been well advertised, will bring record breaking warm
temperatures to the area. Bumped temperatures up a few degrees all
areas as guidance trends have been steadily warmer given sunshine
and increasing southwest wind, which will be locally gusty in some
areas. Records at Grand Island (71 degrees in 2001/1990) and
Hastings will (74 in 1990) will fall. Unofficially, if most places
(though not all) reach 80-83 degrees, those places will also likely
break records. This is the last 80-degree potential day for the
season. Enjoy.

After a very mild night Friday night, the cooler air for the weekend
will be thanks to a cold front moving across the area Satudray
morning. The front will be dry with passing clouds, but stronger
north/northwest winds gusting all day Saturday. The "cooler" air
isn`t all that cool for mid-November with highs ranging from 62 to
72 degrees, though the breeze will put some chill in the air. Sunday
will be a touch cooler, though still 7-10 degree above normal and
with lighter winds bending back to a southerly direction.

Looking ahead to next week, the pattern is much more active and
unsettled starting with an initial shortwave on Monday (17th). Most
recent model trends have settled on a surface low moving across
southern Nebraska with the best precipitation to the north. That has
been the trend for recent model runs. Temperatures are cooler but
favor more the chilly rain and the snow that was in the previous
forecast has been removed. Rain amounts may rain from 035" north of
Grand Island to a trace or a few hundredths in north central Kansas.

Basically after that, its a series of weaker shortwaves embedded in
a progressive series of long waves moving across the Central Plains,
interlaced with roughly 2 day periods of dry weather. This pattern
looks active in the general region, though hard to get very specific
with timing/impacts at this point. The pattern also looks like it
could last through end of November with period rain/snow chances.
Temperatures will be cooler next week week but still roughly near
normal. Ensembles suggest a notch colder air will move into the
region around the 24th/25th and likely last trough the Thanksgiving
Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
switch from the south to the southwest by 06z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

With the record breaking warmth coming, that often results in fire
weather issues in  November. Friday afternoon is a time of some
concern though it appears to be just short of Red Flag Criteria
for a 3 hour period, but pretty close. High temperatures will be
in the lower 80s and relative humidity values will tank to
about 20%, and they may go lower at times. Winds will be light
across north central Kansas/far southern Nebraska, but will be
stronger as one moves north of Highway 6...then I-80...and then
Highway 92 in south central Nebraska. Gusts over 20 mph are
likely in the afternoon but with the uncertainty of just how
long or how strong those winds will be. Worthy of a mention in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook at this point, and also worthy of
a close watch on conditions Friday afternoon should they be
become more extreme.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Schuldt
FIRE WEATHER...

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion