Forecast Discussion
NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

731
FXUS63 KOAX 102000
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
200 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance (10-20%) for snow showers through this evening.
  Gusty northwest winds may briefly reduce visibility.

- Temperatures increase Sunday through Tuesday with 40s and 50s
  becoming 50s and 60s. A cooldown back into the 30s and 40s
  arrives on Wednesday.

- The next chance for precipitation (15 to 30% chance) is not
  expected until late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Rest of Today through Tonight.

A deepening upper-level low pressure continues to sink south from
Minnesota into Wisconsin. This track is a bit further north than
previously forecast and may be influencing the relative lack of snow
showers this afternoon. That said, a few snow showers or flurries
are expected across northeast and west-central Nebraska into this
evening as a reinforcing cold front continues to swing through the
region. Any snow showers or flurries dissipate this evening and
skies will quickly clear as surface high pressure filters into the
area. A cold start to Sunday is expected as a result with widespread
teens by sunrise.

Sunday through Wednesday

The colder weather does not last long as the surface high pressure
moves east of the region heading into Sunday afternoon. With mostly
sunny skies and the return of southerly winds, most locations climb
into the 40s by the afternoon. More eastern locations may hang onto
the 30s for one more day, while western areas may breach 50. By
Monday, more zonal upper-level winds will continue the warming
trend. Afternoon temperatures into the 50s are anticipated under
this pattern. A deepening system over the Great Lakes region will
begin to influence the area by Tuesday afternoon. This system
tightens the surface pressure gradient, increasing northwest winds
behind a cold front that swings through the area. Despite this "cold
front" the warm westerly winds and mostly sunny skies keeps most in
the 50s with 60s on the table for some. The colder airmass finally
arrives behind this aforementioned system on Wednesday, knocking
temperatures back down into the 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday into Next Weekend

A second system is currently forecast to arrive late next week. This
system is anticipated to track a bit farther south compared to the
previous system. This farther south track should promote the return
of at least a low chance (15-30%) of precipitation. Another cold
front should also arrive behind this system heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected through the TAF period.
Northwest winds are beginning to increase in speed this
afternoon to between 10 to 15 kts with gusts upwards of 25 to 30
kts. A band of snow showers is beginning to sink south through
the region this afternoon. Brief reductions to visibility and
ceiling to MVFR or IFR remains possible with the heavier snow
showers. Overall, conditions should remain VFR in lighter snow
showers. A quick dusting of snow may be possible if a heavier
snow shower remains over a terminal for a significant period of
time. OFK is expected to be impacted by snow showers over the
next few hours with OMA following later in the afternoon. Snow
showers should weaken and dissipate this evening. Impacts for
LNK remains low confidence at this time because of this. After
sunset, wind speeds decrease and remain northwesterly with
continued VFR conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
NWS Hastings, NE

921
FXUS63 KGID 101733
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1133 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and light snow today. Northern areas are most favored
  to see a light dusting.

- Breezy today. Northwest winds gust 30-40 MPH (strongest west).

- Relatively warm through most of next week, with only low
  chances (10-15%) for rain/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday
  and again on Friday.

- Gusts over 50 MPH are possible on Friday (30-50% chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 239 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

The threat for snow today remains pretty minor. Flurries are
possible as far south as I-80, but little to no snow
accumulation is expected. Far northern portions of the area
(Valley/Greeley) counties would be most favored to see a
dusting. Many near-term models are completely dry for our area.

Winds today trended up slightly, especially in the west. Gusts
to the 30-40 MPH range will be common this afternoon.

The NBM remains mostly dry through next week, although there
will be a couple periods to watch for light rain/snow. The first
is Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the other would be on
Friday.

Mild temperatures continue, and we could break record warm
minimum temperatures on Tuesday. The record at both GRI and HSI
is 35 degrees and the current forecast low is 39 degrees.

The latter half of next week will trend windier. Friday is
expected to feature the strongest winds. The EPS ensemble mean
has gusts over 50 MPH, with about 25% of the members showing
gusts over 60 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Currently on into tonight...

Light precipitation has continued to inch northward into our
north central KS counties today...a trend that will continue
on into the evening hours. The driver of this precipitation is a
compact area of mid-upper level low pressure...shown by upper
air and satellite data to be gradually working its way through
the western KS/OK border area. This system is embedded in larger
upper level troughing extending through the central CONUS into
central Canada...between sharper ridging along the West Coast
and broader ridging along the East Coast. If anything, this
precipitation ended up creeping a bit further north than several
models showed...but the brunt of snow accumulation will be
closer to and south of I-70 in KS, but some light amounts are
not out of the question for our north central KS counties
(especially the bottom row of Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell).
Thankfully the overall surface pattern is on the weaker side, so
while winds will remain generally northwesterly through this
event, speeds are mainly topping out around 10-15 MPH. High
temps today for some of the area look to end up a few degrees
short...the plentiful cloud cover and precip being further north
not helping things...3PM obs are right at freezing in the far
south, to right around 40 in the far NNW.

For this evening and tonight...models are in good agreement
showing this upper level low filling/weakening as it continues
working it way ENE across KS..with precipitation coming to an
end mid-late evening. The rest of the overnight hours remain
dry.

This weekend...

For most of the forecast area, the upcoming weekend is expected
to be dry. If precipitation does occur, it`d be across NNE
portions of the area, during the daytime hours on Saturday.
While we have today`s upper level low crossing to our south,
another disturbance is working its way SSE through central
Canada, eventually looking to end up over northern MN by sunrise
Saturday. Models are in good agreement showing that while the
upper low itself well NE of the forecast area during the day
Saturday, sliding toward the Great Lakes/Midwest...there will
also be the potential for a narrow corridor of light
precipitation nosing in from the NNW along the exit region of a
strong upper level jet streak. Occurring on the backside of the
main upper low, there`s not a ton of moisture to work with, thus
not expecting notable amounts (snow would be primary precip
type)...and there are some differences between models with
whether this forcing even makes if far enough south to impact
the forecast area, so chances remain low at 20-30 percent. The
area with those chances is mainly along/north of a line from
Loup City to York.

Though not expecting notable amounts...any snow that does fall
will be accompanied by gusty winds, especially during the
midday-afternoon hours. As the upper level pushes east, it will
drive a surface cold front south through the forecast
area...and while not bringing a notable change as far as
temperatures go, it will bring a reinforcing shot of NWrly
winds, which may be gusting 25-30 MPH. As far as high temps go,
didn`t make big changes, if anything ended up with more of a
gradient from SW (maybe near 50 degrees) to NE (mid 30s).
There`s some lingering uncertainty with those highs.

Dry conditions are forecast area-wide for Sunday, with models
showing more lower-amplitude NWrly flow in the upper levels as
that main low pushes further away from the region. Expecting
more sun...and lighter winds (closer to 10-15 MPH) which turn
more westerly as high pressure settles into the Srn Plains. With
the airmass in the region warming, along with the sun/westerly
winds, expecting a bump up in highs...with mid 40s east to mid
50s west currently forecast.

New work week...

As we get into the new work week...the forecast is currently an
overall dry one, but there are spots where some precipitation
chances may end up being needed. Currently not looking at any
significant winter systems...models are in pretty good agreement
showing varying degrees of northwesterly flow in the upper
levels across the region. The week starts out with lower
amplitude flow...but with high pressure remaining fairly well
anchored over the West Coast, disturbances digging south out of
Canada and into the central/eastern portions of the CONUS will
bring the potential for a more amplified pattern mid-late week.
Not out of the question that a couple of these disturbances
could result in precipitation at least clipping portions of the
forecast area...enough differences remain that forecast didn`t
stray from the NBM. At this point, any disturbances look like
they`d be on the quick-hitting, lighter side of things. We`ll
see how models trend in the coming days.

As far as temperatures go, expecting above normal highs to
return to star the week, with both Monday and Tuesday forecast
to reach the mid 50s-near 60 (normal for this time of year is
mid 30s to right around 40). With the potential for upper level
disturbances and accompanying sfc cold fronts mid-late week,
forecast highs drop back more into the 40s...but like
precipitation chances, confidence in highs that far out is not
overly high at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...model time
heights/guidance show increasing cloud cover this afternoon and
lower ceilings, but are expected to remain VFR. Still looking at
the potential for a swath of flurries/light snow to sink south
out of northern NE through the afternoon, but confidence in any
impact at the terminals is low enough at this point that any
mention was kept out of the TAF...will be watching radar/ob
trends upstream closely. Otherwise the TAF is dry. Expecting
gusty NW through the afternoon, gusts near 30 MPH will be
possible. Winds diminish this evening, with a period of
light/variable after midnight...before turning more
southwesterly during the first half of the day on Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion